804
FXUS63 KFSD 271627
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1025 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009
DISCUSSION
CI/CS MORE WDSPRD AND DENSER THAN ERYR EXPECTED. DESPITE
THIS...TEMPS SEEM HEADED FOR FCST HIGHS AND AM MAKING NO CHANGE
THERE...ESPLY SINCE HI CLDS STILL EXPECTED TO THIN OUT SLWLY THIS
AFTN. IF WE HAD COMPLETELY UNABATED SUNSHINE OUR ERYR FCST WUD
SURELY BE A FEW DEGS TOO COOL AS AIR JUST UPSTAIRS BCMG QUITE MILD.
WNDS ALSO LOOK GOOD...THAT IS THEY SHUD STAY FAIRLY LGT FROM S/SW.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU 28/18Z. IF THERE WILL BE ANY SC
SPREADG IN BHND CDFNT IT SHUD BE AFT 28/18Z...PRBLY AFT 29/00Z.
PSBLTY OF PATCHY LGT FOG 28/08Z-15Z IS NOT ZERO...BUT AT THIS POINT
DO NOT SEE GOOD ENUF LATE NIGHT COOLING CONDS TO PUT IT IN.
PREV DISCUSSION
ANOTHER NICE DAY TODAY AND LIKELY THE WARMEST FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
WINDS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS. LOOKING AT HIGHS REACHING THE 50S OVER MOST THE AREA...AND
EVEN SOME LOWER 60S IN S CNTRL SD. NOTHING CLOSE TO BREAKING ANY
RECORDS...BUT HIGHS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ONLY THING
THAT COULD DAMPER TEMPERATURES A BIT TODAY IS CIRRUS SPILLING
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. TOUGH TO TELL HOW THICK THE CIRRUS IS OR IS
NOT AT THIS TIME OF NIGHT...WITH ONLY IR SATELLITE TO LOOK AT. SO
MAY NOT BE MUCH OF ANYTHING...BUT GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SKIES COULD BE
MORE ON THE PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SIDE IN THE NRN CWA...WITH
LESS CIRRUS S.
SFC TROUGH SLIDES E OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOME COOLER AIR
TO FILTER S LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 20S. FOR TOMORROW...COOLER AIR
WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE 40S N TO LOWER 50S S...STILL A GOOD DEAL
ABOVE NORMAL.
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL SWRD SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT DROP ACROSS THE PLAINS. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE...BUT REALLY
DEPENDS ON IF IT GETS ITS ACT TOGETHER TO A GREATER EXTENT THAN THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN
SOME FLURRIES SAT NIGHT...MAYBE A DUSTING OF SNOW.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY UNTIL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT
TO KEEP THE THEME GOING...IT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END
OF NOV. MODELS STILL NOT SURE HOW TO HANDLE THE UPPER TROUGH FOR MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME CONSENSUS ON
PHASING THE NRN AND SRN STREAM...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH S
AND E OF THE AREA THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE LOW SIDE. COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK AS COLDER NW FLOW REPLACES THE
MILD WRLY FLOW. THE BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THE AREA WILL BE THE COLDER
AIR...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
WILLIAMS
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