363  
ACUS01 KWNS 020104  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 020102  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0802 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2016  
 
VALID 020100Z - 021200Z  
   
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN NH
 
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES...  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL  
PLAINS...  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A SMALL PART OF CNTRL  
AZ...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER  
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. FARTHER WEST...ISOLATED  
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM EASTERN COLORADO  
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO  
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA.  
   
..MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST
 
 
AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY CONVECTION.  
THE BEST OVERLAP OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF SE VA BUT RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN DIMINISHING  
STORM STRENGTH WITH ANY SVR THREAT QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA.  
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS  
NH...DESPITE MEAGER INSTABILITY. A COUPLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS  
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THIS LINE CONTINUES  
EWD.  
 
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT  
WITH SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.  
   
..CNTRL AZ /PHX METRO/
 
 
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED W OF PHX WITHIN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS  
ACROSS THE REGION. IWA VAD RECENTLY SAMPLED APPROXIMATELY 30 KT OF  
NWLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE RESULTING SELY STORM MOTION TAKING TSTMS  
INTO THE PHX METRO. IWA VAD ALSO SAMPLED AROUND 35 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK  
SHEAR...WHICH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME MULTICELLS WITH  
STRONG UPDRAFTS. THESE ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE PRESENCE OF A DEEPLY  
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG WIND GUSTS. AS A  
RESULT...A SMALL 5-PERCENT WIND AREA WAS DELINEATED OVER THE REGION.  
 
   
..SE CO...FAR SW KS.
 
 
SLOW-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS SE  
CO AND INTO FAR SW KS. LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS...STRENGTHENING THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE LINE. HOWEVER...  
WEAK FLOW ALOFT /SAMPLED WELL BY THE 00Z DDC SOUNDING/ IS EXPECTED  
TO PREVENT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION AND KEEP THE FORWARD SPEED  
LOW. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS LOW CHANCE  
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS LINE  
APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN.  
 
..MOSIER.. 07/02/2016  
 

 
 
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