536
ACUS01 KWNS 221938
SWODY1
SPC AC 221937
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
VALID 222000Z - 231200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
TEXAS COAST TOWARD THE SABINE VALLEY LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
..20Z UPDATE
LOW-LEVEL WARM-AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TX
COAST, AS SHOWN BY 925-700 MB TRENDS IN THE LAST FEW MESOANALYSIS
RUNS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
JUST WEST OF HOUSTON AND OVER IMMEDIATE ADJACENT OPEN WATERS. WITH
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT, FROM THE TX COAST
INTO THE SABINE VALLEY.
..SQUITIERI.. 02/22/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1013 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025/
..TX/LA
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF, WITH A WAVE APPARENT OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH TX.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE WAVE
WILL RESULT IN WARM-ADVECTION/LIFT AND AN INCREASING THREAT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF, AND INTO THE
MID/UPPER TX AND LA COASTS. AFTER MIDNIGHT, A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THIS REGION AND MAY EXPAND THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE RISK WESTWARD INTO THE MID/SOUTH TX COAST AS WELL.
EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED THIS LATE-NIGHT CONVECTION COULD POSE A
RISK OF HAIL, BUT RECENT GUIDANCE IS LESS CONFIDENT IN THIS
SCENARIO.
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