996
ACUS01 KWNS 251232
SWODY1
SPC AC 251230
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
VALID 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FAR EASTERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OK...
..SUMMARY
A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND VICINITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE APPEARS LIKELY.
..SYNOPSIS
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CYCLONE WEST OFF THE CENTRAL WEST
COAST, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH ITS BASE INTO
SOUTHERN CA. UPPER RIDGING EXISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THE SOUTHERN CA SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ROTATING AROUND
THE CYCLONE OFF THE WEST COAST, MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE, WHILE BOTH THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND LOWER MS
VALLEY SHORTWAVES PROGRESS EASTWARD. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH AND TN VALLEY AS WELL AS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THESE WAVES.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER IN THE TX/OK/NM
BORDER INTERSECTION VICINITY, WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NM AND FAR WEST TX. A COLD
FRONT ALSO EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THIS LOW TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR
THE MO/IL/IA BORDER INTERSECTION. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND WEST TX
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..FAR EASTERN NM...TX PANHANDLE...WEST TX
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF FAR EASTERN NM, WEST TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE. STRONG HEATING
IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR TODAY, TO THE SOUTH OF A
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AND TO THE WEST OF OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT'S THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION, NEGATING ANY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND PLACING THE PRIMARY
IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT, DRYLINE, AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. EVEN SO, CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARIES,
PARTICULARLY THE DRYLINE AND OUTFLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WITHIN THE UNCAPPED AIRMASS.
MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE A BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLIES VEERING TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT SHOULD STILL RESULT
IN ENOUGH SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND SUPERCELLS. LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK, BUT SOME LOCALIZED TORNADO
THREAT COULD DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY IF A COHERENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN PLACE. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW WHILE STORMS ARE
DISCRETE, BUT ONE OR MORE FORWARD-PROGRESSING CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE
OVER TIME, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTS INTO NORTHWEST TX
AND SOUTHWEST OK.
..LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST INTO TN AND OH VALLEY
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS INTERACT
WITH THE MOIST AND MODESTLY BUOYANT AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, AND A PREDOMINANTLY MULTICELLULAR STORM
MODE IS EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL,
BUT A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
..MOSIER/BROYLES.. 04/25/2025
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