210  
ACUS01 KWNS 160547  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 160545  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1145 PM CST FRI DEC 15 2017  
 
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z  
   
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN OF TEXAS  
INTO WESTERN LOUISANA.  
   
..TX/LA
 
 
LATE-EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MID-LEVEL TROUGH HAS REACHED  
ITS LOWEST LATITUDE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND WILL BEGIN TO EJECT  
TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY 17/00Z. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO  
INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE ALONG A NOTABLE BUT STALLED FRONT OVER  
THE NORTHWEST GULF BASIN. MODELS SUGGEST THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE  
NORTH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD BUT LIKELY STRUGGLE TO  
MOVE INLAND AS SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS  
THE GULF STATES AND ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE WIND SHIFT WILL  
REINFORCE COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE SURFACE-BASED  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ALONG THE TX/LA COAST, ELEVATED  
INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE SUCH THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
ANTICIPATED WITHIN STRONGER-FORCED REGION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 850MB WILL BE  
ADEQUATELY BUOYANT FOR DEEP UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF GENERATING  
LIGHTNING. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED  
CONVECTION THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY DOES NOT SUPPORT A  
MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
..DARROW/LEITMAN.. 12/16/2017  
 

 
 
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