398  
ACUS01 KWNS 191949  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 191947  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0247 PM CDT THU OCT 19 2017  
 
VALID 192000Z - 201200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WEST  
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND THUNDERSTORM GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE  
THROUGH EARLY EVENING OVER A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR  
WEST TEXAS.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING MARGINAL  
PROBABILITIES. THEY HAVE BEEN FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN BORDER,  
WHERE WIND PROFILES AND SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY ARE SLIGHTLY MORE  
FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND RELATED POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY  
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ELSEWHERE, THE POTENTIAL FOR  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA, THE  
TEXAS COAST, AND THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  
 
..PICCA.. 10/19/2017  
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1116 AM CDT THU OCT 19 2017/  
   
..SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
 
 
IN WAKE OF LEAD IMPULSE OVER SOUTHEAST NM, A SECONDARY VORTICITY  
MAXIMUM LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AZ WILL ADVANCE EAST TODAY, REACHING  
NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES,  
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING SPREADING EAST  
THROUGH SOUTHWEST TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL NM WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS  
ARE NEAR 50F. DIABATIC WARMING IN PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE  
RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL (400-800 J/KG) MLCAPE AND DEEPLY  
MIXED, INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL THROUGH  
SOUTHWESTERN NM AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH APPROACH OF DEEPER  
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE  
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK AND SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS, THE  
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK FOR  
A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.  
 

 
 
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