387  
ACUS01 KWNS 280056  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 280054  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0754 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016  
 
VALID 280100Z - 281200Z  
   
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR FAR SERN ND AND NWRN MN
 
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS  
AND WRN/CNTRL MN...  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH  
PLAINS...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND  
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN  
DAKOTAS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND THE CENTRAL HIGH  
PLAINS THIS EVENING.  
   
..PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN/CNTRL MN
 
 
A RELATIVELY CONFINED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND  
PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE HRS ACROSS SERN ND  
INTO NWRN MN. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF  
CONVECTION IS QUICKLY ADVANCING ENEWD TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR...AND  
THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD FOSTER A DOWNTREND IN TSTM  
INTENSITY THROUGH 03Z. OTHER ISOLATED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT  
ACROSS ERN SD AND WRN/CNTRL MN AS A WEAK WAA REGIME DEVELOPS AMIDST  
A 20 KT SWLY LLJ. OBSERVED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-7 C/KM IN 00Z  
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING MAY  
YIELD SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL.  
   
..WRN KS
 
 
ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS WRN KS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT THE POTENTIAL FOR  
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL PER RECENT RADAR TRENDS. THE 00Z DDC SOUNDING  
INDICATES STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT...BUT  
EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 20 KT. BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING  
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASINGLY ISOLATED/MARGINAL POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO THE LATE EVENING.  
 
..ROGERS.. 08/28/2016  
 

 
 
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