464
ACUS02 KWNS 171704
SWODY2
SPC AC 171703
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..SYNOPSIS
WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS, WITH SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING ALOFT ALONG WITH
INCREASING WIND FIELDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS,
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO BY 00Z. PRECEDING THIS FRONT ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF 60S F DEWPOINTS, WHICH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
TO THE EAST, A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC, WHERE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ALSO EXIST ALONG WITH A MOIST AIR MASS.
..WY AND SD SOUTHWARD INTO NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE
LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY OVER SOUTHEAST MT
AND NORTHEAST WY, THEN SPREADING INTO SD BY AFTERNOON AND EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST CO. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STORM
COVERAGE, COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY MEAGER SHEAR PROFILES PRECLUDE A
SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO POCKETS OF STRONG INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY
FROM SD INTO NE, AIDED BY HEATING.
FARTHER SOUTH, A RELATIVELY COOL AND MOIST AIR MASS WITH POSSIBLE
ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS INTO TX, AND
THIS MAY STAVE OFF STRONG STORM POTENTIAL UNTIL EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THIS REGION WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST NM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH
MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.
..MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD
TORNADO: <2% - NONE
WIND: 5% - MARGINAL
HAIL: 5% - MARGINAL
..JEWELL.. 08/17/2018
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