313
ACUS02 KWNS 291731
SWODY2
SPC AC 291729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE, LARGE HAIL, AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES.
..CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES
AS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION OCCURS OVER THE CONUS, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, WILL STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND REACH THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA BY FRIDAY
EVENING. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH A BELT OF 60+ KT MID-LEVEL WINDS OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS.
WHILE THE WARM SECTOR PRECEDING AN EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL NOT BE STRONGLY UNSTABLE, PARTICULARLY BY LATE-SPRING
STANDARDS, PREVALENT 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS, STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING, INCLUDING RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING STORMS FOR LATE SPRING.
WHILE A FEW EARLY DAY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND NEARBY ALLEGHENY PLATEAU/APPALACHIANS, THE MAIN SEVERE
RISK SHOULD BEGIN TO EVOLVE IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS
INCLUDING THE BLUE RIDGE VICINITY BY FRIDAY EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS, INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS AND MORE PREVALENT EVOLVING
LINEAR CLUSTERS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS, SHOULD REACH COASTAL AREAS BY
EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED, AND
SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST AS WELL, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE SURFACE WAVE AND WARM FRONT WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH SHOULD MAXIMIZE.
..EASTERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY
A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD-DIGGING CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY FOCUSING NEAR A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT AS A COLD FRONT OTHERWISE PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER
MODEST WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE LOWER 50S
F. HOWEVER, RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR, ENHANCED BY 50+ NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS,
SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING, WITH HAIL AND WIND POSSIBLE AS STORMS PROGRESS
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD.
..EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WHILE THE OVERALL SCENARIO WILL NOT BE AS SEVERE STORM-FAVORABLE AS
PRIOR DAYS, A COUPLE OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
..GUYER.. 05/29/2025
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