313  
ACUS02 KWNS 291731  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 291729  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1229 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025  
 
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE  
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE, LARGE HAIL, AND A COUPLE  
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES.  
   
..CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES  
 
AS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION OCCURS OVER THE CONUS, A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY  
FRIDAY MORNING, WILL STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE  
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND REACH THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA BY FRIDAY  
EVENING. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
WITH A BELT OF 60+ KT MID-LEVEL WINDS OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN  
APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS.  
 
WHILE THE WARM SECTOR PRECEDING AN EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD  
FRONT WILL NOT BE STRONGLY UNSTABLE, PARTICULARLY BY LATE-SPRING  
STANDARDS, PREVALENT 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS, STEEPENING MID-LEVEL  
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED  
SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY  
EVENING, INCLUDING RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING STORMS FOR LATE SPRING.  
WHILE A FEW EARLY DAY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN  
KENTUCKY AND NEARBY ALLEGHENY PLATEAU/APPALACHIANS, THE MAIN SEVERE  
RISK SHOULD BEGIN TO EVOLVE IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS  
INCLUDING THE BLUE RIDGE VICINITY BY FRIDAY EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON.  
THESE STORMS, INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS AND MORE PREVALENT EVOLVING  
LINEAR CLUSTERS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS, SHOULD REACH COASTAL AREAS BY  
EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED, AND  
SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST AS WELL, PARTICULARLY ACROSS  
VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE SURFACE WAVE AND WARM FRONT WHERE  
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH SHOULD MAXIMIZE.  
   
..EASTERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY  
 
A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD-DIGGING CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL  
INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH  
THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY FOCUSING NEAR A WEAK SURFACE  
WAVE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT AS A COLD FRONT OTHERWISE PROGRESSES  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER  
MODEST WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE LOWER 50S  
F. HOWEVER, RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG  
VERTICAL SHEAR, ENHANCED BY 50+ NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS,  
SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
EVENING, WITH HAIL AND WIND POSSIBLE AS STORMS PROGRESS  
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD.  
   
..EASTERN NEW MEXICO  
 
WHILE THE OVERALL SCENARIO WILL NOT BE AS SEVERE STORM-FAVORABLE AS  
PRIOR DAYS, A COUPLE OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF  
EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.  
 
..GUYER.. 05/29/2025  
 
 
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