574  
ACUS02 KWNS 201728  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 201727  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1227 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2018  
 
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX  
TO SOUTHWESTERN LA...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA SATURDAY.  
   
..CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN LA
 
 
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST  
FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION  
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS  
WILL OVERTAKE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ACROSS  
NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND THE CONSOLIDATED BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS  
SOUTHEAST TO WESTERN LA AND THE SHELF WATERS OF THE UPPER TX COAST.  
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF  
THE DAY TO THE NORTH OF I-20 IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TX.  
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION  
THAT MAY OCCUR IN WAKE OF EARLY-DAY RAIN. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS  
VERY LITTLE DESTABILIZATION WHEREAS THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS IS BY FAR  
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DESTABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS  
NORTH-CENTRAL TX. WITH THOSE INSTABILITY CONCERNS MENTIONED, IT  
APPEARS THE NORTH EXTENT OF 60-65 DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT INTO  
EAST-CENTRAL TX BY AFTERNOON AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP.  
A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH AN ISOLATED HAIL/WIND  
RISK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GROW UPSCALE ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSH INTO  
EAST AND SOUTHEAST TX AFTER DARK. A LINGERING THREAT FOR A DAMAGING  
GUST MAY REMAIN INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA  
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
..SMITH.. 04/20/2018  
 

 
 
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