853  
ACUS02 KWNS 241721  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 241721  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1221 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2017  
 
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z  
   
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES  
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER UT PER  
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN STATES  
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH, WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS EVOLUTION OCCURS, A  
TROUGH, THOUGH WEAKER, IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE WEST FLANKED BY  
TWO RIDGES - ONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE OTHER EXTENDING FROM  
THE NORTHEAST U.S. TO THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST REGION.  
 
AT 12Z MONDAY, A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM WESTERN  
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHWEST WI AND THROUGH WESTERN IA, WESTERN KS  
TO THE TX PANHANDLE AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. LITTLE MOVEMENT  
IS FORECAST WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY AS A SURFACE  
LOW TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT INTO NORTHERN WI BY 12Z TUESDAY.  
MEANWHILE, THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE ITS  
GREATEST EASTWARD MOVEMENT ACROSS PARTS OF IA, KS AND INTO WESTERN  
OK, AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ASIDE  
FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES, THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED IN VICINITY OF THE  
CENTRAL U.S. FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH DAY 2. THE PRESENCE OF POOR  
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE LACK OF STRONGER BUOYANCY ON MONDAY  
ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT STRONGER UPDRAFTS FROM OCCURRING AND  
PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE-WEATHER PROBABILITIES FROM ANY  
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  
 
..PETERS.. 09/24/2017  
 

 
 
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