013
ACUS02 KWNS 211729
SWODY2
SPC AC 211727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
..NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY, WITH
AN EARLY WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION EXPECTED FROM ND
INTO NORTHERN MN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ELEVATED
EARLY ON WITH A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN MN, HOWEVER, THE AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND PWAT MAY STILL LEAD TO DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION,
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE, CONDITIONAL ON STORM MODE, GIVEN STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY, VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, WITH
MLCAPE TO AROUND 4000 J/KG. THIS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL SD, AND SOUTH OF
THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN MN. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 00Z, AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF MN AND INTO WESTERN WI AND PERHAPS WESTERN UPPER MI.
EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH TO AN MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS IS MOST
LIKELY.
WHILE PREDICTABILITY IS LOW FOR EXACT PLACEMENT OF MCSS, GREATER
CONCENTRATIONS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
..SOUTHEAST
GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING FROM SOUTHEAST GA INTO SC. THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH HIGH PWAT CONTENT, AND SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE COMMON. MULTIPLE INITIATION ZONES ARE
LIKELY, INCLUDING ELEVATED TERRAIN, SEA BREEZE, AND SURFACE TROUGH.
AREAS OF STRONG OUTFLOW ARE LIKELY, WITH SOME DAMAGING GUSTS
POSSIBLE.
..JEWELL.. 07/21/2025
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