051
ACUS02 KWNS 081713
SWODY2
SPC AC 081711
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2025
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
TX, WITH UPPER LOWS IN BOTH LOCALES. THE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE
BASE OF THIS WAVE SWEEPING ACROSS VA AND NC. TO THE SOUTH, COOL
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AS A
POSITIVE TILT TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FROM FAR SOUTHEAST VA TOWARD
THE GULF COAST AND FL, TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED
SEVERE DAYTIME STORMS.
..SOUTHEASTERN STATES
ALTHOUGH THE GULF COAST PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK, MODERATE
INSTABILITY DUE TO STRONG HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS BY
LATE AFTERNOON IN AN EAST-WEST ZONE FROM SOUTHERN MS INTO SOUTHERN
GA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT WEAK SHEAR BUT A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL HAIL. COLD DOWNDRAFTS MAY ALSO
YIELD LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.
TO THE NORTH, STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VA. INSTABILITY MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL
OVER NORTH PARTS OF THIS REGION DUE TO EARLY DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER,
POCKETS OF AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG STORMS,
AIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCE TO THE NORTH.
OVER FL, STRONG HEATING BENEATH COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES (500 MB
AROUND -11 C) WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR PENINSULA, WITH LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY GIVEN WEAK FLOW BELOW 500 MB,
AND AS SUCH, THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOCALIZED.
..JEWELL.. 05/08/2025
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