831
ACUS02 KWNS 261659
SWODY2
SPC AC 261658
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE LOW ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY), THOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND COLORADO FRONT
RANGE WHERE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
..SD/MN/IA VICINITY
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
MN/IA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A WEAK FRONT
WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD, EXTENDING GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS
EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHERN MN BY PEAK HEATING. WEAK SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE, WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODEST, BUT WEAK INSTABILITY (AROUND 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE) IS
FORECAST. SOME EARLY-DAY SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MAY LINGER, BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON NEAR
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM FAR EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHERN MN.
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES, WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES
IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ALSO APPEAR
ELONGATED/STRAIGHT. WHILE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE
-10 TO -12 C RANGE, SOME WARMING AROUND 700 MB IS APPARENT IN SOME
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WHILE AN ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME
STRONG WITHIN A FAVORABLE SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE, IT IS UNCERTAIN IF
ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL BE MAINTAINED GIVEN MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS AND
SOME CONTAMINATION TO THE ENVIRONMENT FROM EARLY-DAY ACTIVITY. AN
ISOLATED STRONG GUST OR SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS FOR A COUPLE HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING, BUT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS
TIME.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MID 50S TO LOW
60S F DEWPOINTS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BENEATH
MODEST UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DAYTIME HEATING AND A
DEVELOPING LEE-TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE CO/SOUTHEAST WY FRONT RANGE.
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK, BUT SUFFICIENT FOR
MLCAPE IN THE 500-1200 J/KG RANGE. MODESTLY INCREASING WESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW WILL SUPPORT 20-30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND
SOMEWHAT ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF
SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS VICINITY
THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERALL, SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE MODEST THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT.
..LEITMAN.. 08/26/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page