464  
ACUS02 KWNS 171704  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 171703  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1203 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018  
 
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH  
PLAINS FROM WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS  
REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL  
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE  
PLAINS, WITH SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING ALOFT ALONG WITH  
INCREASING WIND FIELDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS,  
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN  
NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO BY 00Z. PRECEDING THIS FRONT ACROSS  
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF 60S F DEWPOINTS, WHICH  
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIALLY  
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  
 
TO THE EAST, A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO  
VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC, WHERE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL  
ALSO EXIST ALONG WITH A MOIST AIR MASS.  
   
..WY AND SD SOUTHWARD INTO NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE
 
 
LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS,  
RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY OVER SOUTHEAST MT  
AND NORTHEAST WY, THEN SPREADING INTO SD BY AFTERNOON AND EXPANDING  
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST CO. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STORM  
COVERAGE, COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY MEAGER SHEAR PROFILES PRECLUDE A  
SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND  
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO POCKETS OF STRONG INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY  
FROM SD INTO NE, AIDED BY HEATING.  
 
FARTHER SOUTH, A RELATIVELY COOL AND MOIST AIR MASS WITH POSSIBLE  
ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS INTO TX, AND  
THIS MAY STAVE OFF STRONG STORM POTENTIAL UNTIL EVENING. THE BEST  
CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THIS REGION WILL BE ACROSS  
SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST NM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH  
MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.  
   
..MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD
 
 
TORNADO: <2% - NONE  
WIND: 5% - MARGINAL  
HAIL: 5% - MARGINAL  
 
..JEWELL.. 08/17/2018  
 

 
 
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