013  
ACUS02 KWNS 211729  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 211727  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1227 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025  
 
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND  
TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF  
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
   
..NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY  
 
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY, WITH  
AN EARLY WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION EXPECTED FROM ND  
INTO NORTHERN MN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SOUTHERLY  
LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ELEVATED  
EARLY ON WITH A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN MN, HOWEVER, THE AMPLE  
INSTABILITY AND PWAT MAY STILL LEAD TO DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION,  
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE, CONDITIONAL ON STORM MODE, GIVEN STRONG  
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  
 
SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY, VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, WITH  
MLCAPE TO AROUND 4000 J/KG. THIS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT  
FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL SD, AND SOUTH OF  
THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN MN. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 00Z, AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING  
ACROSS MUCH OF MN AND INTO WESTERN WI AND PERHAPS WESTERN UPPER MI.  
EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH TO AN MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS IS MOST  
LIKELY.  
 
WHILE PREDICTABILITY IS LOW FOR EXACT PLACEMENT OF MCSS, GREATER  
CONCENTRATIONS MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.  
   
..SOUTHEAST  
 
GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH  
DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING FROM SOUTHEAST GA INTO SC. THE AIR  
MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH HIGH PWAT CONTENT, AND SCATTERED  
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE COMMON. MULTIPLE INITIATION ZONES ARE  
LIKELY, INCLUDING ELEVATED TERRAIN, SEA BREEZE, AND SURFACE TROUGH.  
AREAS OF STRONG OUTFLOW ARE LIKELY, WITH SOME DAMAGING GUSTS  
POSSIBLE.  
 
..JEWELL.. 07/21/2025  
 
 
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