113
ACUS02 KWNS 151703
SWODY2
SPC AC 151701
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES, WITH WARMING ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WY AND INTO ND, WITH THE LEADING MIDLEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVING FROM CO INTO THE DAKOTAS.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS,
WESTERN NE, AND ACROSS NORTHEAST CO THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A SECONDARY LOW IS
ALSO EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST CO.
MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE LIMITED BY RELATIVELY DRY
TRAJECTORIES, AS AN EXTENSIVE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE GULF. HOWEVER, AT LEAST MID 50S F DEWPOINTS APPEAR
LIKELY INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE, SUPPORTING MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION.
HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE STRONGEST OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE INSTABILITY FOR DIURNAL
STORMS IN THIS REGION AS WELL. MUCAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE
APPEAR LIKELY AT PEAK HEATING, WITH SCATTERED CELLS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AS WELL AS
DEEP-LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER 50 KT MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS
PRODUCING HAIL OVER 1.00" DIAMETER WITHIN A NARROW ZONE.
FARTHER NORTH, ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DUE TO A BROAD AREA OF 30-50 KT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 850 MB. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS COULD SUPPORT SMALL NON/SEVERE HAIL AT TIMES AS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
..JEWELL.. 10/15/2025
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