405  
ACUS02 KWNS 280529  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 280528  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1228 AM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z  
 
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OVER MUCH OF AR...NORTHWEST LA...AND NORTHEAST  
TX....  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX INTO  
KS AND MO...  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY FROM PARTS OF EAST  
TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY.  
 
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST  
STATES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND AFFECT  
THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED ACROSS TX TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT  
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER EAST TX AND  
SOUTHEAST OK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS IN THIS REGION TO  
RECOVER, WITH A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF  
THE SURFACE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP ALONG  
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS  
PARTS OF LA/AR DURING THE EVENING/NIGHT. THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS ARE  
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET THAT MOVES FROM  
SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN AR AFTER DARK. THE RESULTING FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES  
PRODUCING TORNADOES (POSSIBLY STRONG), AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND  
DAMAGING WINDS. PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY NEED UPGRADED TO MDT  
RISK IN LATER UPDATES IF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS  
SCENARIO.  
 
..HART.. 03/28/2017  
 

 
 
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