032
ACUS03 KWNS 301922
SWODY3
SPC AC 301921
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
..SUMMARY
AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF SEVERE GUSTS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHILE UPPER
RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
ADVANCES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. SEASONAL MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED DIURNAL HEATING WILL ENCOURAGE AT LEAST SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES COULD BECOME
STRONG. GIVEN ADEQUATE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION, A FEW
OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
..PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THE PERIPHERY OF RELATIVELY GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS POISED TO
TRAVERSE THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.
STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRAZE THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. ROBUST
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IN THIS REGION WILL BOOST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO 9 C/KM OVER SEVERAL LOCALES, AS 8.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OVERSPREADS THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. MLCAPE MAY EXCEED
1000 J/KG OVER MANY AREAS, AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCESSING THIS BUOYANCY
WILL BE EMBEDDED IN STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND 30-40 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. AS SUCH, STRONGER MULTICELLS MAY PRODUCE A MIX
OF WET AND DRY DOWNBURSTS, PERHAPS INDUCING A COUPLE OF SEVERE
GUSTS.
..SQUITIERI.. 06/30/2025
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