659
ACUS03 KWNS 170701
SWODY3
SPC AC 170700
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS AND OZARKS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND OZARKS.
..GREAT PLAINS AND OZARKS
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BULK OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
NORTHERLIES TO WESTERLIES SHOULD LIE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KS/OK
TO THE OZARKS. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z
SUNDAY FROM THE DAKOTAS TO OK. GENERALLY SOUTH OF THIS EARLY-DAY
ACTIVITY, PROSPECTS FOR STRONGER SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OVERLAP WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED BELT OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL FAVOR
A CONDITIONAL ENVIRONMENT FOR MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO OZARKS.
GUIDANCE VARIES MARKEDLY REGARDING THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME, LIKELY RELATED TO LINGERING
MCS/MCV EFFECTS FROM D2/EARLY D3. AT THIS POINT, WILL BROADLY BRUSH
MRGL RISK PROBABILITIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
SEVERE.
..GRAMS.. 08/17/2018
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