403
ACUS03 KWNS 301934
SWODY3
SPC AC 301933
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCATTERED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO KANSAS, WITH MAINLY
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FROM THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
..CENTRAL PLAINS
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES ON
MONDAY, WITH VARIOUS DISTURBANCES ROTATING INTO WY WITH GLANCING
INFLUENCE INTO CO. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST CO WITH STRONGLY BACKED/EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS NORTH OF THE LOW ACROSS MUCH OF NE, KS AND INTO EASTERN CO.
THESE EASTERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN 50S F DEWPOINTS INTO CO, WHERE
STRONG HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD AID DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
FRONT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE
INITIAL CELLS, WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND 35+ KT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AIDING SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. WITH TIME, CELLS MAY
CLUSTER/INCREASE IN COVERAGE, WITH A SEVERE MCS POSSIBLE INTO KS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS. ANY SUCH SYSTEM ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY A 30-40 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE EVENING.
..MID TO LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS
A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE MS AND TN
VALLEYS ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHEAST. A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
EARLY DAY THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. TIMING FOR SEVERE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN DUE TO POSSIBLE ONGOING ACTIVITY MONDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTHERN MO AND VICINITY. IF THIS OCCURS, THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
WOULD LIKELY EVOLVE FROM THAT ACTIVITY AS THE OUTFLOW PROCEEDS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. OTHERWISE, NEW
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE ZONE FROM THE MID MS/LOWER OH
VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. MUCAPE OVER 3000 J/KG AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL FAVOR FORWARD PROPAGATION AND WIDESPREAD STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..JEWELL.. 05/30/2026
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