243
ACUS03 KWNS 271918
SWODY3
SPC AC 271917
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS
ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
..CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH FORECAST GUIDANCE
DEPICTING A WIDE ENVELOP FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AT THE LARGE SCALE, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST NORTHWARD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER WEST, A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL BRING A BELT OF ENHANCED
MID/UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE OR AN MCV OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL
LIFT GENERALLY NORTHEAST WHILE A TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE EVOLUTION OF THESE
FEATURES IS UNCERTAIN, WITH SOME GUIDANCE LIFTING THE LOW AND ANY
ACCOMPANY SEVERE RISK QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO CANADA EARLY IN THE
DAY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH, FAVORING A CORRIDOR
OF SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MN DURING THE
DAY. WHILE THESE DETAILS REMAIN A QUESTION MARK, A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY
FORECAST. DEPENDING ON MESOSCALE DETAILS, AN ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE RISK
COULD DEVELOP - THOUGH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR MOST
LIKELY AT THIS TIME. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY, OUTLOOK CHANGES ARE MODEST
WITH THIS UPDATE.
..LEITMAN.. 06/27/2026
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