664  
ACUS03 KWNS 230713  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 230712  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0212 AM CDT SUN APR 23 2017  
 
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE  
SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST  
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE  
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA,  
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
THE EVENING. OTHER MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS  
MAY OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  
   
..OKLAHOMA/SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
 
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. AT  
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY REACHING NORTHERN OKLAHOMA  
AND WESTERN MISSOURI BY EARLY EVENING. A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD  
PREVENT CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
THE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING ALLOWING FOR THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST  
KANSAS. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD INTO  
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING BY MID EVENING.  
 
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AT 03Z/WEDNESDAY FROM  
SPRINGFIELD TO TULSA SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE NEAR 2000  
J/KG), 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM 700 TO  
500 MB. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL.  
AN ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS AND  
WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL LINE-SEGMENTS THAT ORGANIZE ALONG THE  
FRONT.  
   
..EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
 
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, OFFSHORE BUT  
PARALLEL TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A  
CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA  
WHERE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING INTO EARLY  
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK, MODERATE  
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COULD BE ENOUGH FOR  
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELLS.  
 
..BROYLES.. 04/23/2017  
 

 
 
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