659  
ACUS03 KWNS 170701  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 170700  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0200 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018  
 
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GREAT  
PLAINS AND OZARKS...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND OZARKS.  
   
..GREAT PLAINS AND OZARKS
 
 
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
GREAT PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. BULK OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL  
NORTHERLIES TO WESTERLIES SHOULD LIE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THIS  
FEATURE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KS/OK  
TO THE OZARKS. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z  
SUNDAY FROM THE DAKOTAS TO OK. GENERALLY SOUTH OF THIS EARLY-DAY  
ACTIVITY, PROSPECTS FOR STRONGER SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OVERLAP WITH  
THE AFOREMENTIONED BELT OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL FAVOR  
A CONDITIONAL ENVIRONMENT FOR MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS DURING  
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO OZARKS.  
GUIDANCE VARIES MARKEDLY REGARDING THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE  
DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME, LIKELY RELATED TO LINGERING  
MCS/MCV EFFECTS FROM D2/EARLY D3. AT THIS POINT, WILL BROADLY BRUSH  
MRGL RISK PROBABILITIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED  
SEVERE.  
 
..GRAMS.. 08/17/2018  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SPC Page Main Text Page