481  
ACUS03 KWNS 280725  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 280724  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0224 AM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z  
 
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
WEST TN...EASTERN AR...AND NORTHERN MS...  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY...  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY FROM PARTS OF THE  
MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  
   
..LOWER/MID MS VALLEY INTO TN VALLEY
 
 
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY.  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD  
OF THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE OVER AR/LA AND TRACK EASTWARD INTO MS/TN.  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CAPE AHEAD OF  
THE FRONT, ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE  
STORMS. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT ON THE POSITION OF  
MAIN TROUGH AXIS, BUT THE DETAILS OF SHORTWAVE TIMING/LOCATIONS ARE  
QUITE DIVERSE. NEVERTHELESS, A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE PROVIDES  
SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE A PORTION OF WESTERN TN, EASTERN  
AR, AND NORTHERN MS TO AN ENH RISK FOR THURSDAY.  
 
..HART.. 03/28/2017  
 

 
 
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