230
ACUS03 KWNS 071923
SWODY3
SPC AC 071922
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, AND FROM EAST TEXAS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST.
..SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
WITHIN LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS AND CANADA, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. WEAK LEE
CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS,
WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST TO RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTH TX INTO OK TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE DRYLINE. HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN CO INTO
WESTERN KS, WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
A SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE WIND AND HAIL RISK SHOULD EXIST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE,
SOUTHWEST KS, AND INTO OK WHERE WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE IN PLACE. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW
FAR NORTH GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATED INSTABILITY WILL
ADVANCE, BUT ANY CELLS THAT CAN FORM COULD POSE AN ISOLATED THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
FOR MODEST UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. HAVE EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK A
BIT IN OK AND THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL
SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE, AND FOR A POSSIBLE
CLUSTER/MCS SATURDAY EVENING.
..EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY TEND TO REMAIN ELEVATED TO THE NORTH OF A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. BUT, INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIST AS DAYTIME HEATING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
FRONT OCCURS, AND AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES
EASTWARD FROM EAST TX INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND VICINITY. ONE OR
MORE CLUSTERS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE AND POSE SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AS THEY SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH SOMEWHAT MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TX INTO LA, WHERE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND GREATER INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO EXIST.
..GLEASON.. 05/07/2026
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