063  
FXUS64 KMEG 280220  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
920 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER NE MS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF  
INTO NRN AL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME CONVECTION IS  
FIRING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER SRN MO...JUST NORTH OF THE  
AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH BUT WILL  
LEAVE A SMALL POP ALONG THE NRN TIER JUST IN CASE. MEANWHILE THE  
REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH IS QUIET WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS.  
MOST AREAS RECEIVED SOME RAIN TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME  
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY FOG BY  
MORNING. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.  
 
SJM  
 

 
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/  
 
WE REMAIN IN A VERY MESSY PATTERN WHEREIN THE SMALLEST OF  
FEATURES PLAY BIG ROLES IN THE STRENGTH OF STORMS. THE GOOD NEWS  
IS THAT RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND OUR LAWN  
AND GARDENS WATERED. HOWEVER IT DOES COME WITH A PRICE...SEE  
BROOKLAND ARKANSAS FOR AN EXAMPLE. HEAVY RAIN...UP TO THREE  
INCHES...PRODUCED QUITE A BIT OF FLASH FLOODING THERE TODAY.  
 
NOT A LOT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW  
DAYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER TOMORROW AND  
FRIDAY...BUT OVER THE WEEKEND...A BROAD TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF  
THE PLAINS RESULTING IN THICKNESS FALLS...AND COOLING  
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD  
BE SOLIDLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. EXPECT LOW TO MIDDLE 80S  
EACH DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN  
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.  
 
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW AND  
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS WILL INCREASE. PW'S  
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES SO THE THREAT OF  
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE...IF NOT INCREASE.  
 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
STRENGTHENING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. STORMS SHOULD  
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SUBTLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH  
THE MEAN FLOW WILL PLAY MAJOR ROLES IN PRECIPITATION EACH  
PERIOD...MUCH LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY AND TODAY.  
 
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE A CUTOFF LOW PARKED NEAR OR JUST  
WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...IF THIS SCENARIO  
PANS OUT...WE MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY DURING THE  
PERIOD...BUT READINGS SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW  
NORMAL.  
 
30  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BUT THEN LOW CLOUDS AND  
FOG SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT PRODUCE IFR  
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE KTUP  
AREA THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID-MORNING ON  
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE  
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
ARS  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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