932  
FXUS64 KMEG 271609  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1009 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS  
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S.  
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE  
FORECAST AREA AND SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR UP BY THIS EVENING  
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. MADE SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS  
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
ARS  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 627 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
CURRENTLY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS  
WITH STRONG COASTAL WAVE BEGINNING TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS THE  
MID SOUTH...SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW IS  
PUSHING EAST AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR THIS REASON...DID  
INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES THIS MORNING.  
 
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE MID  
SOUTH. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH IS  
REPRESENTED IN NEARLY ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIDDLE  
TENNESSEE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.  
THROUGH THE DAY...LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ERODE AND GIVE WAY TO  
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE COLD AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO OFFSET MUCH IN  
THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING SO HIGHS NEAR 40 ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE  
TO MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ARE LIKELY.  
 
A GRADUAL IS WARMUP IS SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING FRIDAY  
AS MERIDIONAL FLOW GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE LOW TEENS BY  
SUNDAY...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 60S FORECAST.  
 
MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING FAIRLY RAPID  
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH IS A  
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE GFS  
ACTUALLY DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO BEGINNING FRIDAY BUT DID NOT  
INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH  
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND VERY WEAK/SLOW LOW LEVEL  
VERTICAL MOTIONS...EXPECT DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AS MOISTURE  
STREAMS NORTH. WHETHER THIS WILL BE MEASURABLE IS YET TO BE  
DETERMINED BUT ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL EXISTS TO INTRODUCE INTO THE  
FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH  
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY LATE  
AFTERNOON AS FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES.  
 
A MORE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL EXISTS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD  
PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IMPINGES ON A MOISTENING  
AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER  
50S...LAPSE RATES ARE SO WEAK THAT INSTABILITY...EVEN ELEVATED...REMAINS  
NEGLIGIBLE. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT  
THIS TIME. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH  
OF THIS BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL  
ZONE. GIVEN FLOW NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY...IT WILL  
LIKELY MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA VERY SLOWLY SO AN EXTENDED PERIOD  
OF PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE.  
 
FOR THE LONGER TERM...LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE  
FRONT WASHES OUT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RELAXES AND FRONTAL  
CIRCULATION SLOWS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF  
WARMING BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK.  
 
TVT  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAF CYCLE  
 
MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE  
GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY LATE THIS MORNING AT KJBR AND  
INTO THIS AFTERNOON POINTS EAST. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS  
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. LATER  
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING  
ELEVATED WARM FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD.  
 
JLH  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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