852  
FXUS64 KMEG 281725  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016  
   
UPDATE
 
AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1038 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/  
 
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING PLACE AN  
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR OMAHA AND A SUBTLE BUT WEAK 700 MB SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH LOCATED NEAR JACKSON, MS. SKIES ARE PARTLY SUNNY THIS  
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 AM CDT IN THE 70S AT MOST  
LOCATIONS.  
 
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST BEST CHANCES FOR  
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY  
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE SOME  
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM  
TRENDS. OTHERWISE, FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GREAT SHAPE.  
 
CJC  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
CURRENTLY...500 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA WITH UPPER RIDGE  
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE  
MID-SOUTH BUT THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED AND JUST A FEW SHOWERS  
ARE OCCURRING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPS RANGE FROM THE  
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD  
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND  
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION WILL WEAKEN. PRECIPITABLE WATER  
VALUES WILL START TO DROP TODAY. EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS ALONG AND WEST  
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AREAS TOWARD THE TN RIVER AND NORTHEAST  
MISSISSIPPI WHICH HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY DRY FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS  
WILL STAND A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN TODAY AS THE  
AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. SOME SUNSHINE WILL MEAN  
MORE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...SO A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE  
POSSIBLE. ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS  
EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 60S. SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY LOOK LIKE A DIURNAL CONVECTION DAYS WITH NO DISTURBANCES TO  
KEY OFF OF. EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS AND TEMPS IN  
THE UPPER 80S. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET AND MILD WITH LOWS IN  
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK MEDIUM  
RANGE MODELS HAVE A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS  
WITH DISTURBANCES STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. AS A  
RESULT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE. A  
FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS  
TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER  
60S. TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH  
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPS.  
 
SJM  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
18Z TAFS  
FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS  
AFTERNOON...WEAKENING TONIGHT AND SHIFTING MORE FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT.  
 
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP TODAY...ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM  
GUIDANCE STILL HAD IT DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IN NORTH  
MISSISSIPPI...BUT ALSO NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST  
TENNESSEE. WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT MKL AND VCTS AT TUP FOR A FEW  
HOURS THIS EVENING. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AT MEM OR JBR. SOME LOW TO  
MIDLEVEL STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.  
 
30  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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