599  
FXUS64 KMEG 281358  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
858 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE MORNING FORECAST IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED  
AT THIS TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION  
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING  
HUMIDITY.  
 
JAB  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 623 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2017/  
 
UPDATE...  
 
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2017/  
 
AT 3 AM CDT AROUND THE MID-SOUTH, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS  
EXERCISED ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION, AS CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY  
CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 60S. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CENTERS THIS HIGH ROUGHLY  
OVER WEST VIRGINIA, WITH MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS UNDER ITS  
INFLUENCE. MEANWHILE, LATEST H5 ANALYSIS EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS  
FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST. SLIGHT UPPER  
RIDGING IS EVIDENT TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL REGION, WITH RESULTANT  
NORTHWEST FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE MID-SOUTH.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND PLEASANT FOR  
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S  
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD  
TODAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. CONDITIONS WILL  
BECOME MORE HUMID AS A RESULT, AND EVEN MORE SO ON THURSDAY AS LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ENHANCES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF  
AFTERNOON CONVECTION, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI, ON  
THURSDAY.  
 
BETTER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY AS  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ALOFT OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  
AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 80S, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. THE BEST  
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE ON FRIDAY AND  
INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.  
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT GIVEN ITS  
LOCATION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH, STILL FEEL AS THOUGH MUCH OF  
THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE IN THE WEEKEND  
AND THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE  
ZONAL, SUPPORTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK  
IMPULSES TRANSIT OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE WEEK  
WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE AND EARLY JULY.  
 
ZDM  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
12Z TAFS  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LOWER  
STRATUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR  
MVFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TODAY BETWEEN 6-12 KTS, WITH  
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KJBR. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE  
TONIGHT BETWEEN 5-8 KTS.  
 
JLH  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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