651  
FXUS64 KMEG 191952  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
252 PM CDT THU OCT 19 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE CURRENT MIDSOUTH WEATHER  
WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RUNNING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER  
70S...ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. HUMIDITY WAS  
COMFORTABLE...RANGING FROM 35 TO 50 PERCENT.  
 
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE  
CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE THE MILD FALL WEATHER FOR THE MIDSOUTH OVER  
THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH COOL MORNINGS WARMING TO NEAR 80 BY  
MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SLIGHT FORECAST CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS  
PERIOD. THE CURRENT TROUGH VASTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PHASE UP WITH A SLOWER AND WEAKER TROUGH  
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL  
INCREASE OVER THE AREA...ALONG WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN GULF  
MOISTURE. A FEW WAA SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON BUT THE  
BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND AN  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY  
NIGHT...AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE PLUME OF GULF AIR  
WILL SLOWLY GET PINCHED OFF AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION  
LEADING TO THE BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF JONESBORO  
AND WEST OF I-55. LI'S IN THIS REGION WILL DIP TO -3C WITH CAPE  
AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. PLAN ON INTRODUCING A STRONG  
THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR THIS AREA IN TODAY'S HWO. ELSEWHERE EMBEDDED  
THUNDER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BRING MOST LOCATIONS ABOUT AN  
INCH OF PRECIPITATION. LATER ON SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF  
SHOW THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH OUTRUNNING THE SOUTHERN  
END FORCING A CLOSED 500MB LOW CIRCULATION TO FORM SOMEWHERE OVER  
OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP SPOTTY SHOWERS AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD  
COVER OVER A MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY  
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SO CHANGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDED SLIGHTLY  
WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS ON  
SUNDAY...AND A DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST FOR MONDAY.  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOWER UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL  
DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATE  
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN AIRMASS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE  
THE COLDEST THIS FALL SEASON...DROPPING MORNING LOWS INTO THE MID  
30S ACROSS THE EAST. PATCHY FROST IS ANTICIPATED...WITH AN  
ADVISORY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE  
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.  
 
JAB  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
JLH  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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