800  
FXUS64 KMEG 271454  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
953 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
AREA 12Z RAOBS AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOW THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS  
IN PLACE OVER THE MID-SOUTH, WITH 2+ INCH PRECIP WATER OVER THE  
AREA. WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MS RIVER DELTA,  
WITH SHRA/A FEW TSRA WORKING INTO OUR NORTHERN MS COUNTIES.  
 
TEMPS ARE RUNNING A BIT ABOVE CURRENT FORECAST. IF 15Z TEMPS  
CONTINUE THE TREND, WILL BUMP UP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO  
ACCOUNT FOR MORE WARMING BEFORE CLOUDS/SHRA/TSRA MOVE IN. CURRENT  
FORECAST POP TREND LOOKS GOOD SO NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.  
 
GW  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 238 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE MID-SOUTH TODAY  
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.  
TODAY, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI  
AND WILL DISSOLVE OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE DELTA. THE  
CONVECTION WILL START DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE AND WILL INCREASE  
IN COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CONVECTION AND ABUNDANT  
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.  
SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD  
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.  
 
FOR THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND, A BROAD  
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL  
MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH SETTING OFF WAVES OF SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FOR THURSDAY, BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION  
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST  
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. BEYOND THURSDAY, TRYING TO  
PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES TRIGGERING THE WAVES OF  
CONVECTION IS HARDER TO DO. REGARDLESS, HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN  
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL  
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THOUGH THE PERIOD.  
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH  
WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO  
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE  
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.  
 
THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. EXPECT  
CONVECTION CHANCES TO BECOME MORE DIURNALLY BASED AND MORE  
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHS CREEP  
BACK INTO THE MID 90S IN A FEW LOCATIONS.  
 
KRM  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAF PACKAGE  
 
LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS NORTH MS, MOVING INTO  
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN THROUGH MID-MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN  
MVFR CEILINGS, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KMEM. HOWEVER, WE MAY SEE A  
FEW HOURS OF BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS AT KMEM THIS MORNING. CEILINGS  
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING, BUT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE  
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS,  
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS WERE INCLUDED AT ALL  
TERMINALS. CONVECTION IS LIKELY AGAIN OVERNIGHT, BUT TIMING AND  
SPATIAL UNCERTAINTIES DO NOT WARRANT ANY MORE THAN VCTS AT THIS  
TIME. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE TONIGHT.  
 
JOHNSON  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TN Page
The Nexlab MS Page
The Nexlab AR Page Main Text Page