544  
FXUS64 KMEG 211128  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
628 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL  
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL  
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND WILL RESULT IN  
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY  
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD  
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS AROUND 60  
TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST IT WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD  
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD END FROM  
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER BACK  
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM  
THE NORTH.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE  
MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER...LOWER HUMIDITIES...AND  
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN  
THE 70S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY WITH RETURN  
SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO QUICKLY RETURN HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS  
AND DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH. ANOTHER UPPER  
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE  
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE FRONT  
SHOULD STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO LIFT  
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH WARM  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY  
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST  
MODEL GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL POSITION OF THE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY AND DEGREE OF RIDGING. AT THIS TIME...FAVOR THE MUCH MORE  
CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND PLAN TO KEEP  
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY AND WARM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  
 
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CUT OFF ACROSS THE  
WESTERN STATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING  
NORTHEAST FROM THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST SHOULD  
HELP TO INCREASE STORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES  
EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR  
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD  
REMAIN WARM AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
JLH  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAF CYCLE  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF  
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.  
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE STILL IN QUESTION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR THAT REASON HAVE PLACED TEMPO'S IN THE TAFS  
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUP WHERE LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. HAVE  
INTRODUCED AN MVFR LAYER LATE TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BECOME BROKEN  
NEAR 22/12Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST AT 6-10 KTS  
VEERING MORE WESTERLY LATE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  
 
JAB  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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