782  
FXUS64 KMEG 160531  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1131 PM CST FRI DEC 15 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 833 PM CST FRI DEC 15 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES A 1024 MB RIDGE  
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SKIES REMAIN  
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH WITH  
TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 PM CST IN THE 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS. WILL  
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES TO  
ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS. OTHERWISE, THE REMAINDER OF THE  
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.  
 
CJC  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI DEC 15 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT. PESKY CIRRUS  
CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON,  
BUT EXPECT THEM TO CLEAR OUT BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD  
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. LOWS WILL  
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.  
THIS  
EVENING  
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING WARMER  
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVER  
THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER  
50S.  
 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO THE AREA  
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED FRONT NEAR  
THE GULF COAST. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY THUS EXPECT RAIN TO  
TAPER OFF BETWEEN 9 AM TO NOON FROM WEST TO EAST. ONLY EXPECT  
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SFC WAVE MAY SKIRT NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI  
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH, THE ECMWF AND NAM  
KEEP THE SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAYS RUN  
COMPARED TO THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS FROM CURRENT FORECAST  
THAT LEANS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE GFS.  
 
MODELS REALLY DIVERGE BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS  
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH RAINFALL. FOR NOW HAVE  
LEANED TOWARD THE GFS.  
 
OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK HAS HIGHS  
START CREEPING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  
 
MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AT THE END OF NEXT  
WEEK. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS  
IS FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT THE BIGGEST  
IMPACT MAY BE THE ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND  
THE FRONT. MODELS SHOW THE ARCTIC AIR STAYING IN PLACE NEXT  
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL SFC LOWS BRING PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY OF THE  
WINTER TYPE INTO THE MID-SOUTH. EVERYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS  
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK AS DETAIL BECOME  
CLEARER.  
 
KRM  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
/06Z TAFS/  
 
SOUTH WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS OVERNIGHT,  
INCREASING BY MID/LATE MORNING. GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT NEAR KTUP WHERE  
THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHTER WINDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE  
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING  
TO 10-12 KFT AFTER 00Z. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 03Z BUT  
RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM 08-12Z.  
 
JOHNSON  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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