065  
FXUS64 KMEG 031120  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
620 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY THROUGH  
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE  
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES.  
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE  
AND UPPER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF HOT  
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR INCREASINGLY  
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN  
100 AND 105 DEGREES. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT HEAT  
INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.  
 
THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD BY  
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES  
SHOULD BE HELD A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN  
VERY WARM ALONG WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.  
 
A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POPS  
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. STEEPENING MID LEVEL  
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE  
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO BEST DEFINE THE EVENTUAL  
THREATS. PLAN TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS  
WEATHER OUTLOOK.  
 
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SERIES  
OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD  
TRIGGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED  
FORECAST PERIOD IN MOST LOCATIONS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON  
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...SO HAVE  
ADDED POPS TO THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK TO  
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.  
 
JLH  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAF CYCLE  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL  
INCREASE TO SW/W WINDS BETWEEN 5-8 KTS TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT  
AFTER 04/00Z.  
 
CJC  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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