902  
FXUS64 KMEG 011925  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
225 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD  
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHEAST MS.  
THE FRONT WAS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 32  
DEGREES AT PARIS TN TO 62 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS. SURFACE BASED  
INSTABILITY WAS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...  
RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS  
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL  
SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND NORTHWEST AR SPARKING  
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MO ATTM.  
 
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE  
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH FREQUENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ALONG WITH MOSTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY COOLER  
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH  
TONIGHT ENCOUNTERING THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM  
FRONT. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. INCREASED THE POPS SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS  
FORECAST IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER  
THREATS.  
 
THURSDAY...THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR  
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND  
80 DEGREES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE  
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A  
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AS  
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TURING TO  
STRONG NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 
COLD AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA  
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS  
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.  
SUNNY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.  
 
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A  
THREAT OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST  
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT  
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL OCCUR AS WARMER...MORE MOIST...AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR SPREADS  
BACK ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST  
FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO  
CAUSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID-WEEK...THE  
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS PUSHING A COLD FRONT  
THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE REGION IN REMAINING IN THE  
WARM SECTOR.  
 
JCL  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z TAF CYCLE  
 
VFR CURRENTLY AT LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR JBR WHERE MVFR CIGS PERSIST.  
CIGS AT JBR ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WARM  
FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...EXPECT THAT WE MAY SEE SOME  
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY  
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN SO  
WENT WITH JUST VCTS AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR JBR WHERE SFC  
BASED INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY MORE...AT JBR WENT TEMPO FOR -TSRA  
BETWEEN 20-23Z...STARTED VCTS A TAD LATER AT MKL/TUP AND WENT SLIGHTLY  
LONGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO  
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY  
WILL BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THIS BROUGHT A  
LATER TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA IN AT JBR...AND REINTRODUCED VCTS AT  
MEM FOR 06Z LINE.  
 
MAY SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF CIGS IN THE 1000-2000FT RANGE BTN 10-16Z  
ON THURSDAY...WITH STILL INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE  
SOUTH. BROUGHT AT LEAST A TEMPO IN FOR MVFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES  
EXCEPT MKL IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AS PRESSURE  
GRADIENT INCREASES WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA  
ON THURSDAY. WINDS GUSTS INCREASE TO 20-30KT ACROSS THE AREA BY  
18Z ON THURSDAY.  
 
NGU  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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