834  
FXUS64 KMEG 020132  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
832 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED TO SCALE BACK POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE GULF  
COAST EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING. THIS HAS  
PROVIDED FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.  
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS  
TRIGGERED NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST  
MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. SOME  
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY MAKE IT INTO FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE  
AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN A DECAYED STATE. PLAN TO CARRY LOW END  
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER...QUICKLY TAPERING OFF  
POPS WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT.  
 
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.  
 
JLH  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
CUMULUS FIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS  
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDAFTERNOON...WITH DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MIXING AND  
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS MORNING/S GRAVITY WAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE  
APPEARED TO BE SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER MCS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU  
LATER TONIGHT...EVOLVING FROM LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
NORTHEAST OK / SOUTHEAST KS.  
 
SOUTHERN REMNANTS OF THE MCS MAY DROP INTO NORTHEAST AR/THE MO  
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z/01 NAM  
AND ECMWF WERE DRIER THAN THE GFS FOR TUESDAY...CAPPING MOST DEEP  
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE  
TROF MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT 20 POPS FOR NORTH  
MS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT.  
 
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...UNDER THE NORTHERN  
PERIPHERY OF A BROADENING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RIDGE CENTERED ALONG  
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER/MID 70S DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE  
SURFACE HEATING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE  
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...BUT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING  
UPPER RIDGE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 6 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
 
FRIDAY WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE MIDSOUTH...IN  
RESPONSE TO STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY ARRIVING TO THE MID  
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO  
SUNDAY...PRECEDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY.  
THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER AREAWIDE CHANCES OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY  
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT  
MONDAY.  
 
PWB  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF CYCLE  
 
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT  
MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING. FOR NOW FEEL  
THAT TUP WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CIGS. STRATUS SHOULD LIFT AND  
SCATTER BY NOON...WITH A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS POPPING UP  
NEAR JBR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-9 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL  
INCREASE TO 9-12 KTS BY 02/16Z...WITH A FEW GUSTS AT JBR.  
 
JAB  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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