596  
FXUS64 KMEG 020443  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1143 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 918 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/  
 
UPDATE...  
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED AT MIDEVENING OVER EAST CENTRAL AR AND  
NORTH MS. THESE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW  
PRESSURE TROF MAINLY BELOW 500MB...CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LA.  
 
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS  
WERE SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING AT MIDEVENING...AND REDUCED BUT NOT  
ELIMINATED CLOUD COVER NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED IN  
THE AVIATION SECTION EARLIER... SOME FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT...  
PARTICULARLY EAST AND NORTH OF MEMPHIS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN  
ABOVE A MILE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE  
LATE EVENING.  
 
PWB  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
CURRENT 500MB ANALYSIS EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS FROM EASTERN CANADA  
SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING COOLER THAN  
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT  
WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL  
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE  
ON SATURDAY. THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EAST BY LATE IN  
THE WEEKEND...AND AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE  
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE  
WEEK.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR  
REGION...THUS WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST  
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL AID TEMPERATURES IN REMAINING NEAR  
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN AUGUST...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY  
LEVELS IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN  
ADDITION...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS  
BUILD SLIGHTLY. BY THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL  
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...PUMPING WARM  
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THUS  
HAVE INCLUDED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 
ZDM  
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE 24 HR TAF  
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WHILE  
CIGS REMAIN WELL INTO VFR RANGE. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KMKL..KTUP...  
AND KJBR CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO MVFR LEVELS. CHANCES OF  
SHOWERS REMAIN AT KTUP BUT REMOVED VCSH DUE TO DECREASED COVERAGE.  
 
JPM3  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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