139  
FXUS64 KMEG 100846  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
246 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.  
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER THE  
MID SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST LATER  
TODAY AND SPREAD AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID  
SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL  
WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WHERE UP TO ONE  
HALF INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW  
FOR SOME OF THIS SNOW TO STICK TO ROADWAYS LATER THIS EVENING. ANY  
LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING LATE  
TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. PLAN TO MENTION THE LIGHT SNOW  
POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MINOR IMPACTS  
TO TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE  
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LATER SHIFTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR  
THROUGH THE DAY IN CASE SNOWFALL ENDS UP HEAVIER THAN CURRENTLY  
ANTICIPATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S  
ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE 20S  
AREAWIDE.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL  
LEVELS BY FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WEEK.  
 
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH  
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING  
WEEKEND. THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK  
WITH...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES QUITE INTERESTING BY THE END OF THE  
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DROPS  
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY. COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION AS  
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST TO THE SOUTH OR ALONG  
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE  
FOR A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND  
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD ON  
MONDAY...EXPECT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO  
ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THERE STILL IS  
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THIS  
PERIOD. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH  
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.  
 
FOLLOWING THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM...A TRANSITION BACK TO  
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY TREND. THEREFORE  
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE VERY END OF  
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
JLH  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z TAF CYCLE  
 
VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...WITH WEST AND NORTHWEST  
WINDS OF 4-8KTS BACKING SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST LATE.  
 
JAB  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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