239  
FXUS64 KMEG 280424  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1124 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016  
   
UPDATE
 
AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 907 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/  
 
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING  
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. ALL OF THE  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON HAS DISSIPATED. WITH CLEAR SKIES, SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP  
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES SOME OVERNIGHT.  
 
ARS  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/  
 
QUIETER ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH  
ACTIVITY GENERALLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF MEMPHIS.  
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH HEAT  
INDICES OF A 100F TO 103F DEGREES AT A FEW LOCATIONS.  
 
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 36  
HOURS BEFORE THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER PLAINS FLATTENS  
IT OUT AND A NEW HIGH CENTER/RIDGE FORMS IN THE PLAINS AND  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEATHER IN THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE VERY LITTLE  
CHANGE EACH DAY...WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR  
STORM AND TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT  
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG  
OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. PLAN ON KEEPING THE THREAT FOR A  
STORM OR TWO TO PULSE UP STRONG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  
THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW THE MIDSOUTH DRY OVERALL...WITH THE  
ECMWF DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE  
GFS WITH A WESTWARD PROGRESSIVE SHEAR AXIS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL U.S. WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST  
SURFACE WINDS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. EITHER SOLUTION  
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDSOUTH IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOW  
90S. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR  
MOST...KEEPING HEAT INDICES BELOW 100F. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES COULD  
INVADE PARTS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY SATURDAY AS INCREASED  
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE GULF COAST SURGES NORTHWEST.  
 
JAB  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
06Z TAF SET  
 
MVFR OR EVEN IFR VIS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE AT  
MKL...TUP AND MAYBE JBR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS  
TONIGHT...AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND TOMORROW AROUND 5KT WITH VFR  
CONDITIONS.  
 
30  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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