729  
FXUS64 KMEG 280544 AAA  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1144 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 746 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/  
 
UPDATE...  
 
ALTHOUGH MOST RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE NOT BEEN REACHING THE GROUND  
DUE TO A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN  
REPORTED ACROSS RANDOLPH/LAWRENCE/GREEN/CLAY COUNTIES. FOR THIS  
REASON...HAVE INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  
FURTHER EAST...ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST AS WELL AS A FEW  
HYDROMETEORS MAY MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST  
LOOKS ON TRACK.  
 
TVT  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/  
 
UPDATE...  
 
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/  
 
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE  
TRENDS PLACE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF  
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS  
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MID SOUTH  
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM  
CST RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH OF I-40 AND 30S SOUTH.  
PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES FOR A PORTION OF THIS WEEKEND AND THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS  
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE THE PREDOMINANT  
CHALLENGES IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.  
 
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE  
WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEYS TONIGHT. LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION  
WHICH HAS OCCURRED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF  
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTHWEST  
OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. EVENING  
SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST FORECAST IF SHORT  
TERM TRENDS NECESSITATE ANY CHANGES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE  
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE 20S.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS  
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH OF I-40...AND 40S  
TO LOWER 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID  
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE  
OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH PERHAPS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING  
RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS SATURDAY  
NIGHT. ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD TRANSITION  
OVER TO RAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A  
WARM FRONT.  
 
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS  
INDICATE A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOWARDS  
THE START OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT  
MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A  
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT  
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40 BUT CONFIDENCE IN STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW AND THINK A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY  
RAINFALL MAY EXIST AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO  
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE  
GFS/ECMWF LONG RANGE MODELS CONFIDENCE IN ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS IS  
LOW UNTIL THIS PERIOD BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL  
RUNS.  
 
CJC  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z TAFS  
 
PERSISTENCE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT  
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE EAST...AS VFR PREVAILS.  
SOME -SN WILL POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM AT JBR...WITH A FEW  
SNOWFLAKES MANAGING TO REACH THE GROUND.  
 
PWB  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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