327  
FXUS64 KMEG 251109  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
609 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG ON FOR ONE  
MORE DAY AND PROVIDE THE MID SOUTH MORE RECORD HEAT. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S IN MOST  
LOCATIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION  
ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA MAY RESULT IN A FEW  
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING BUT MOST  
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.  
 
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS  
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
THIS SHOULD HELP TO ADVANCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA  
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN  
BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND  
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...THEREFORE NOT  
ANTICIPATING STRONG STORMS AT THIS TIME. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD COME  
TO AN END BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF  
THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO  
MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND LESS  
HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING LATER MONDAY AND  
PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN  
MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.  
 
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BY NEXT  
WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST  
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL. THE TROPICS MAY BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN BY  
LATE NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE  
NEXT 10 DAYS. OBVIOUSLY WAY TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE  
REGION WILL HAVE ANY IMPACTS BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT  
WEEK AND A HALF.  
 
JLH  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAFS  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT TAF SITES.  
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY  
MORNING. VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE AT JBR AND PERHAPS MEM LATE TONIGHT  
INTO MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT SE/S WINDS WILL VEER NW/N BETWEEN 6-10  
KTS WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.  
 
CJC  

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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