253  
FXUS64 KMEG 210235  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
935 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF  
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED NEAR THE TN RIVER OTRW SKIES ARE CLEAR.  
CONDITIONS ARE WARM AND MUGGY AS WELL WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND  
LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. REMAINDER OF THE  
NIGHT WILL BE QUIET AND WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. NO UPDATE  
NEEDED.  
 
SJM  
 

 
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/  
 
THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE THE HEAT. AN ISOLATED  
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT BUT A STRONG RIDGE  
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY.  
 
AFTER A FAIRLY COOL FIRST 2/3 OF THE SUMMER THE HEAT IS NOW ON.  
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ABOVE WHERE WE WERE  
24 HOURS AGO WITH ANOTHER 2 DEGREES OR SO OF WARMING EXPECTED.  
FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE TOO WARM...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE  
JUST SPLITTING HAIRS. DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT...FROM MORNING  
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...DOWN TO THE LOW 70S. RESULTING  
HEAT INDICES HAVE BEEN A BIT BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105  
DEGREES...BUT UNLESS DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DECREASE...MUCH OF THE  
AREA WILL AT LEAST APPROACH THE 105 DEGREE MARK.  
 
EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW...AND REALLY EACH DAY THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. MODELS TEND TO BREAK DOWN AND OR MOVE THESE STRONG RIDGES  
EAST FASTER THAN WHAT USUALLY OCCURS...SO WILL RELY HEAVILY ON  
PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S  
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. FOR NOW IT LOOKS  
LIKE SATURDAY AND OR SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH THE  
WARMEST AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 99 DEGREES. RESULTING HEAT INDICES  
WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY DEW POINTS AND THE AMOUNT OF  
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WE SEE EACH DAY. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE  
NEEDED...BUT WILL BE ISSUED ON A DAY BY DAY BASIS.  
 
30  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF CYCLE  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY  
THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM  
THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY INCREASING BACK TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE  
LATE MORNING HOURS.  
 
ARS  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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