350  
FXUS64 KMEG 222047  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
347 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH  
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE WEATHER AND IT WILL CONTINUE AS AN  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.  
   
..TONIGHT
 
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S  
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE JUST HIGH  
ENOUGH THAT FROST WILL NOT FORM...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED LOW LYING  
AREAS. DID NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY BECAUSE FROST WILL NOT BE  
WIDE SPREAD AND IF ANY IT WILL BE PATCHY.  
 
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID-  
SOUTH AND WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDS...UNFORTUNATELY THIS MAY BLOCK  
THE VIEW OF THE SOLAR ECLIPSE. YET THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY  
BRING IN CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN  
TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
LATE ON MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALONG  
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES IT TIME MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IT BRINGS  
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES DON/T CHANGE  
MUCH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. CONFIDENCE  
IS NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL DEVELOP AS MOST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT  
THIS BEING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS WEAK IN THE MID-SOUTH.  
THUS ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION YET THERE IS A CHANCE  
THAT THE MID-SOUTH MAY STAY DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH. PUT IN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY  
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
TLSJR  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z TAF CYCLE  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS  
WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN  
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
ARS  

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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