664  
FXUS64 KMEG 222331  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
631 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017/  
 
UPDATE...  
 
UPDATED TO LOWER POPS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THIS EVENING AND  
ADJUST HIGHER POPS SOUTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO NORTH  
MISSISSIPPI.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A DISTINCT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ALONG AND JUST  
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40, WITH SMALLER SCALE BOUNDARIES FURTHER  
SOUTH WHERE CONVECTION IS INITIATING. AS THIS NORTHERN BOUNDARY  
ADVANCES SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING, WINDS SHOULD TURN ABRUPTLY TO THE  
NORTHWEST AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH DESPITE THE  
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT HANGING BACK FURTHER TO THE NORTH. LATEST  
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY HAS  
BECOME MUCH MORE STABLE WITH A NOTABLE FLATTENING OR EVEN  
DISSIPATION OF CUMULUS. THEREFORE, HAVE LOWERED POPS  
SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BEHIND THE OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARY. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING BUT  
TRENDED TO A FASTER SOLUTION OF ENDING POPS A BIT SOONER THAN  
EARLIER FORECAST.  
 
THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES AND PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.  
 
JLH  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017/  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH  
TONIGHT. CURRENTLY, THE FRONT STRETCHES FROM PADUCAH, KENTUCKY TO  
LITTLE ROCK, ARKANSAS. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH, THERE IS A GAP  
CURRENTLY IN THE LINE FROM LITTLE ROCK NORTHEASTWARD TO PEMISCOT  
COUNTY. I EXPECT THE LINE TO FILL IN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD  
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE  
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  
 
LINGERING CONVECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND  
INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, CLEAR SKIES AND  
DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE  
DEPARTING FRONT.  
 
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE MID-SOUTH OVER THE  
REST OF THE WEEK INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO  
VALLEY. AS A RESULT, NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP THE  
DRIER AIR IN PLACE MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL VERY PLEASANT WITH  
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.  
 
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, ALL EYES WILL TURN  
TOWARD THE REMNANTS OF HARVEY AND WHAT PATH IT TAKES. IT COULD  
BRING HEAVY RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY  
REGARDING TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT IT DEFINITELY BEARS  
WATCHING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAFS  
 
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH FRONTAL  
CONVECTION MAINLY AFFECTING TUP...WHILE IT DEPARTS MKL AND MEM BY  
23/01Z. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWING NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AT  
5-10KTS WITH AN ISOLATED HIGHER GUST OR TWO POSSIBLE AT MEM AND  
MKL BEFORE 23/06Z. DRIER AIR WILL DECREASE WINDS AND CLOUDS  
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
JAB  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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