556  
FXUS64 KMEG 080525  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1125 PM CST WED DEC 7 2016  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 832 PM CST WED DEC 7 2016/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
ARCTIC AIR SEEPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION. MEANWHILE  
A 150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS SCREAMING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO CREATE SOME LIFT ACROSS THE  
REGION THROUGH MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES  
IS OCCURRING ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI THOUGH THAT BAND  
IS UNLIKELY TO REACH THE MID-SOUTH. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT  
SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM AR...KLZK 88D  
BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME LIGHT ECHOES OVER CENTRAL AR...OVER THE  
NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY SO AT LEAST SOME OF THIS  
WOULD PROBABLY NOT REACH THE GROUND. AS A RESULT PRECIP CHANCES  
OVERNIGHT REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THOUGH WE COULD SEE A  
FEW FLAKES OR SPRINKLES OR A MIX OF BOTH. IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.  
BY MORNING IT WILL FEEL LIKE WINTER WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S  
NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH AND A STIFF NORTH BREEZE. HIGHS  
WILL NOT REACH 40 ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 ON THURSDAY.  
 
SJM  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST WED DEC 7 2016/  
 
LOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-  
SOUTH KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE  
WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET, BUT LOOKS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS  
EVENING. A BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP  
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, JUXTAPOSED WITH A LAYER OF CONVECTIVE  
INSTABILITY (NEGATIVE EPV). THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME MESOSCALE LIFT  
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. LOW  
POPS WERE RETAINED FOR TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL RAIN ACROSS NORTH MS, BUT  
MAY MIX WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  
THAT SAID, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS MOST OF THIS PRECIP  
WILL EITHER EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE OR WILL BE TOO  
LIGHT TO MEASURE.  
 
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT IS FORECAST TO PULL OFF  
TO THE EAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND SHOULD LIMIT THE WARM-UP, DESPITE CLEARING  
SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO  
AROUND 40 DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON FRIDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES  
WILL AGAIN BE RATHER CHILLY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE  
30S FOR THE MOST PART. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS  
SEASON ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. LOW  
TEMPERATURES NEAR 20 DEGREES ARE FORECAST FOR MANY AREAS, AND SOME  
OF THE LOW-LYING DRAINAGE AREAS MAY DIP INTO THE MID TEENS.  
 
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PROMOTE AN  
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, PRECONDITIONING THE ENVIRONMENT  
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER  
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND  
CONTINUING INTO EARLY MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE AT/ABOVE 60% ON  
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MODEST QPF TOTALS. TEMPERATURES  
SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO PRECLUDE WINTER WEATHER  
CONCERNS.  
 
STRONG, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP THE DOOR  
OPEN FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES WERE  
INCLUDED ON WEDNESDAY. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO  
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY.  
 
JOHNSON  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z TAF CYCLE  
 
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE  
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
ARS  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TN Page
The Nexlab MS Page
The Nexlab AR Page Main Text Page