143  
FXUS64 KMEG 250442  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1142 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 847 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/  
 
UPDATE...  
 
UPDATE TO REMOVE THE WATCH ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST  
AREA...THREAT HAS ENDED AS MOISTURE NEVER REALLY LINED UP WITH THE  
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY. ADJUSTED TIMING  
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE CHANCES OVERNIGHT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL  
ACTIVITY IS LOW. TWEAKED THE TEMPS...DEW PTS..AND WINDS TOWARDS LATEST  
RUC DATA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. -ABS  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/  
 
UPDATE...  
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/  
 
UPDATE...  
 
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE PRE-FIRST PERIOD WORD...MAKE SOME  
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE CURRENT CONDITIONS WITH THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE RIVER AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE  
MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT LESS  
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CONDITIONS BEING LESS FAVORABLE WITH  
CINH INCREASING AND DEWPTS LINGERING IN THE UPPER 50S AND NOT  
MOVING INTO THE LOWER 60S. WILL WATCH TO SEE IF THE FRONT ITSELF  
CAN PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE SLOW MOISTURE INCREASE THROUGH  
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE UPPER TROUGH STARTING TO MOVE OUT.  
-ABS  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON  
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL  
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME SEVERE  
AT TIMES AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR  
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 11 PM CDT.  
 
THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM  
WESTERN MISSOURI THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.  
IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS THERE  
IS OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN OKLAHOMA  
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION  
THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. MORE SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA  
TONIGHT WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE WITH  
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION KEEPING THINGS DRY FOR  
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL  
NOT BE TOO MUCH COLDER THAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO TEMPERATURES ON  
FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. BY  
SATURDAY WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH WHICH HELP BRINGING WARMER  
AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN  
THE LOW TO MID 80S.  
 
BY SUNDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A RESULT A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL START TO  
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY  
MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND  
EASTERN TEXAS SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. BY  
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS AND THROUGH THE  
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT SO MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. SPC  
HAS OUR AREA OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  
 
BY TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE REGION AND  
THEN SLOW DOWN SOME. THIS WILL KEEP SOME THREAT OF RAIN OVER THE  
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE  
UPPER LOW WILL BE IN THE MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY AND START TO ROTATE  
AND HAVE LITTLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THIS WILL MEAN CLOUDY AND  
COOLER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND NEXT THURSDAY WILL A CHANCE OF  
RAIN REMAINING IN THE FORECAST.  
 
ARS  
 

   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z TAF CYCLE  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE EXITED THE AREA. A  
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE  
AREA...BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT  
THIS TIME. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR  
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST  
WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWEST TOWARDS SUNRISE BETWEEN 10-12 KTS THEN  
BACK SOUTHWEST AND BECOME LIGHT/NEARLY CALM AFTER 26/00Z.  
 
CJC  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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