975  
FXUS64 KMEG 011104  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
604 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014  
   
DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014/  
 
4 AM CDT SURFACE MAP SHOWED A 1033MB SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE OVER  
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY... EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN HALF  
OF AR. THIS MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH WILL EDGE SLOWLY EAST TODAY...  
ALLOWING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX OVER THE MIDSOUTH.  
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...THE DRY AIRMASS  
/DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S/ SHOULD COOL QUICKLY FOLLOWING  
SUNSET. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...  
TONIGHT/S FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING.  
 
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK/SCHOOL WEEK WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AND  
HUMIDITIES MODERATE... AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE BACK  
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE. MONDAY NIGHT WILL  
SEE NOTICEABLY MILDER TEMPS...WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND  
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DROP FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER  
MS RIVER VALLEY... DRIVING A PACIFIC SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE  
MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS  
FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS... BEFORE EXITING  
THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.  
 
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW A SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROF SEPARATING  
FROM THE MAIN FLOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY  
FRIDAY...THE GFS DROPS THE GRADUALLY WEAKENING TROF ACROSS TX AND  
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE ECMWF TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY  
ROUTE... EVENTUALLY PHASING THE TROF WITH NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY  
AND PROVIDING THE MIDSOUTH WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARD THE  
WEEKEND. FOR THIS MORNING/S FORECAST...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO MODEL  
SOLUTIONS...GIVING A SLIGHT EDGE TO THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE MODEL  
DISPARITY BEYOND 132 HOURS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS MARGINAL  
BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
PWB  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAF SET  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. N WINDS  
OF 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE  
COME LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST AFTER 00Z WITH SPEEDS OF 4 KTS OR  
LESS.  
 
KRM  
 

 
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-  
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-  
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.  
 
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR  
CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-  
MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.  
 
MO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.  
 
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR  
DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.  
 
MS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-  
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-  
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-  
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.  
 
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR  
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-  
LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-  
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-  
YALOBUSHA.  
 
TN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-  
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-  
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-  
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.  
 
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR  
BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-  
GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-  
LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.  
 

 
 

 
 
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