552  
FXUS64 KMEG 270206  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
806 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED TO INCREASE EVENING SHOWER COVERAGE.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
BASED OFF RADAR TRENDS LIGHT SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY AFFECT THE  
SOUTHWESTERN DELTA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF INCH DUE TO  
THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. ALSO EXPANDED CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST  
INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE FOR THE MID EVENING HOURS.  
 
JAB  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 635 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2017/  
 
UPDATE...  
 
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2017/  
 
AT 3PM, A DRY AND PLEASANT LATE WINTER DAY TAKING PLACE ACROSS  
THE MID-SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AREAWIDE  
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN BELOW 30 PERCENT NEARLY  
AREAWIDE, DUE TO THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS. HOWEVER ANY FIRE  
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SQUASHED, AS THE AIRMASS QUICKLY  
MOISTENS TONIGHT AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA.  
 
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE  
DIGGING ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE AT THIS HOUR. THIS WAVE WILL  
QUICKLY TRAVERSE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS  
EVENING. HI-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE, DEVELOPS A CLUSTER OF STORMS  
INTO A MESO-CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS  
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN  
HALF OF THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. QPF VALUES WILL BE  
BETWEEN A QUARTER INCH IN THE NORTH TO NEAR AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH.  
 
STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS THE MCS  
PROPAGATES EASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.  
OTHER THAN MORNING ACTIVITY, MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND CLOUDY  
WITH LOW POPS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  
 
BY MONDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS  
THE AREA. AS IS DOES, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. BY TUESDAY, THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE FULLY  
ENCOMPASSED BY A BROAD WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY MID TO UPPER  
60S DEWPOINTS AND CAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. A FEW WEAK  
IMPULSES IN THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY KICK OFF A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY.  
 
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEEPEN  
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CONCURRENTLY, A BROAD  
LONGWAVE TROF WILL SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND OVERSPREAD  
100 METER HEIGHT FALLS OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS. A MIXED MODE OF  
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THIS REGION, WITH MULTICLUSTER STORMS  
AS WELL AS POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS, DUE TO THE DYNAMIC AND UNSTABLE  
ENVIRONMENT. THE MAIN THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL  
AND GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS OF THE ELEVATED NATURE. QUITE A BIT OF  
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY IDENTIFIABLE  
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES OR FEATURES AT THIS TIME.  
 
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL  
STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE  
TROF TAKES ON A POSITIVE TILT AND SWINGS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO A LINE AS THE COLD  
FRONT SWINGS INTO THE MID-SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. LARGELY  
UNIDIRECTIONAL HODOGRAPHS WILL LIKELY PUSH A SQUALL LINE THROUGH  
WEST TENNESSEE, THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI  
DURING THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD  
LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENTS  
THAT BREAK FROM THE MAIN LINE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE  
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO RAIN  
CHANCES.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY,  
WITH A REINFORCING DRY FRONT MOVING IN ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL  
PERSIST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY, BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY  
NIGHT.  
 
AC3  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
00Z TAFS  
 
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES AS MID  
LEVEL CLOUDS SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.  
SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE LATER  
TONIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR  
BEFORE SUNRISE. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY AT 7 KTS OR LESS.  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST  
MONDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUATION OF IFR CIGS EARLY. CIGS SHOULD  
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING MVFR CIGS  
IN MOST LOCATIONS TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH  
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
JLH  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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