621  
FXUS64 KMEG 261449  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
949 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016  
   
UPDATE
 
 
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL  
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH NE ARKANSAS THIS MORNING.  
THESE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOON A THEY MOVE INTO A LESS  
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR  
THE LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER FROM THIS DISTURBANCE. A FEW MORE  
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A FRONT  
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 622 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/  
 
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016  
ONE LAST DAY OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER, THERE IS RELIEVE COMING  
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE NORTH.  
 
MODELS OF GENERAL PATTERN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE  
FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTS OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS  
SUNDAY AND WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST TODAY AND INTO  
TONIGHT. BY LATE ON MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MID-  
SOUTH WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL  
CONTINUE TO THE JUST ABOUT THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN THE FLOW WILL  
BE MORE ZONAL.  
 
MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE  
AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON IN FRONT OF A CONTINENTAL-POLAR AIR  
MASS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE POLAR JUST MEANS IT IS COOLER THAN THE  
MARITIME-TROPICAL AIR MASS IT IS REPLACING FROM THE PAST FEW  
DAYS. THIS NEW AIR MASS WILL BRING WITH IT SOME SHOWERS THAN  
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES IN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FROM MID-WEEK TO THE END  
OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER NEXT  
WEEKEND. THE TIMING IS STILL NOT CERTAIN ON THIS, YET HAVE A WET  
WEEKEND AT THE END OF THE FORECAST IN THE GRIDS.  
 
AS FOR THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY: MOST AREAS WILL SEE TRIPLE  
DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES. HOWEVER, DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL  
NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO THE AREAS NORTH OF MEMPHIS. AREAS AROUND  
MEMPHIS AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF MEMPHIS WILL LIKELY SEE HEAT  
INDEXES PEAK AROUND 105 OR 107 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE  
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS COMBINE WITH THE RIGHT CONDITIONS.  
ALL AREAS IN THE ADVISORY, MAY NOT SEE 105 HEAT INDEX VALUES,  
HOWEVER, MOST AREAS WILL. ALSO, THE AREAS REMOVED FROM THE HEAT  
ADVISORY FROM YESTERDAY HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT THE DEW POINTS RISING  
TOO MUCH OR THE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TOO MUCH INTO THE 90S. SO  
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY.  
 
TLSJR  
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAF CYCLE  
 
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR MOST OF THIS  
TAF CYCLE. SHOULD SEE DAYTIME CU DEVELOP MID-LATE MORNING AND  
CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING. CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING E OVER NE  
AR SO WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT KJBR THROUGH 15Z. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA  
DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS. UPPER RIDGE SHOULD  
LIMIT COVERAGE SO WILL OMIT FROM TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY  
LIGHT SWLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TSRA CHANCES SHOULD  
INCREASE NEAR THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD AS SURFACE FRONT  
APPROACHES. WILL HINT AT THIS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER 04-05Z  
AND LET LATER TAF CYCLES REFINE THE DETAILS.  
 
GW  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN.  
 
MO...NONE.  
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-  
COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PANOLA-  
PONTOTOC-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-YALOBUSHA.  
 
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SHELBY.  
 

 
 

 
 
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