963  
FXUS64 KMEG 301529  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1029 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016  
   
UPDATE
 
 
A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOCATED  
ROUGHLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING  
ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AT THIS TIME. THIS AREA WILL MOVE  
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND  
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY THIS  
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.  
 
MEANWHILE...A WAKE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE BAND  
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GETTING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 40-50  
MPH WINDS KNOCKING DOWN TREES. THIS WAKE LOW MAY BEGIN AFFECTING  
THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA SHORTLY. WILL KEEP ISSUING SIGNIFICANT  
WEATHER ADVISORIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG WINDS.  
 
ALSO...DON/T EXPECT MUCH REDEVELOPMENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS  
MORNINGS CONVECTION. THE WARM FRONT HAS SURGED NORTH OF THE AREA  
WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST ARKANSAS  
TO AFTER 00Z. AT THAT TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN  
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES AND  
LOWERED POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AS  
A RESULT.  
 
KRM  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 409 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/  
 
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG AND EAST OF  
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LITTLE ROCKS 00Z SOUNDING MEASURED NEARLY  
1.50 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER. DUAL POL INSTANTANEOUS PRECIPITATION  
RATES ARE UP TO 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR. FLOODING IS LIKELY IN EAST  
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING REPORTS HAVE  
NOT BEEN ABUNDANT. HIGH RES SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES  
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING...BUT 2-4 ADDITIONAL  
INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY.  
 
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS  
TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH MISSOURI AND  
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST. ONCE  
THE FRONT PASSES...WE SHOULD SEE AN END TO THE ADVERSE  
WEATHER...BUT UNTIL THEN IT MIGHT BE A GOOD IDEA TO JUST ENJOY A  
SATURDAY INDOORS. SPC HAS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ONGOING CONVECTION  
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND RESULTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
POTENTIAL. STRONG STORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN AND LOTS OF  
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED.  
 
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SHIFT ZONAL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS  
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL  
FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE EXCEPTION BEING  
FAR EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE  
LOW TO MIDDLE 70S DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.  
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...AND IF FRIDAY WAS ANY  
INDICATION OF WHAT TODAY MAY BRING...I STILL MAY BE TOO WARM.  
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.  
 
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE  
MIDSOUTH MONDAY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTH  
MISSISSIPPI. SOME OF THE COOLEST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO  
THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE  
60S AREA WIDE MONDAY...TRENDING A FEW DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY  
THROUGH MIDWEEK.  
 
ZONAL FLOW WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY MIDWEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE  
BUILDS OUT WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK  
WEEK. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS MARGINAL...SO MOISTURE  
FOR RAIN SHOULD BE LIMITED. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH  
THE WORK WEEK.  
 
30  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAF CYCLE  
 
A LINE OF TSRA WITH MORE STRATIFORM SHRA BEHIND IS NOW JUST EAST  
OF THE MS RIVER...THUS BEGIN THE CYCLE WITH VCTS OR VCSH AT ALL  
BUT KTUP. INCLUDED TEMPO FOR TSRA OR RA WITH MVFR CAT CIGS AND  
VSBYS AT THESE SAME TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING. GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTS ANOTHER LINE OF TSRA DEVELOPING THIS EVENING SO HAVE  
INCLUDED VCTS FOR THIS EVENING BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING  
TIMING. SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT OR JUST UNDER 10 KTS BY THIS  
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET.  
 
ZDM  
 

 
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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