350  
FXUS64 KMEG 011125  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
525 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 430 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF  
FEBRUARY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. EARLY THIS MORNING...SOUTHEAST WINDS  
WERE PUSHING MILD AIR INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES IN  
SOME LOCATIONS WARMER THAN THEY WERE DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY. THE  
LOWER LEVELS WERE VERY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE DEW  
POINTS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE TN RIVER VALLEY. A WARM FRONT WAS  
PUSHING TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH WIDESPREAD  
SHOWERS...THE RAIN WAS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE GROUND  
IN OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE  
WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR LOCATED  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE LOW.  
 
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST. AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL  
STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 1000 MB AND BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN IN BY SUNSET.  
A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL APPROACH  
EASTERN AR BY NOON AND MOVE RAPIDLY TO NEAR THE TN RIVER AND THE MS /  
AL BORDER BY SUNSET. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH  
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS UPPER LIFT INCREASES  
DRAMATICALLY AND THE LOWER LEVELS BECOME SATURATED. BASED ON THE  
FORECAST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. ALSO...SOME SURFACE BASED  
INSTABILITY MAY PUSH INTO NORTH MS DURING THE DAY. THE MODELS  
INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP ARE SHOWING THE RAIN BEGINNING TO PUSH OUT  
OF PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND PORTIONS OF THE MO BOOTHEEL BY EARLY  
AFTERNOON...SO BEGAN TO SHOW THE POPS DECREASING FROM THE WEST AT  
THIS TIME.  
 
RAIN IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY END FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING.  
LATEST MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP ONCE TEMPERATURES  
BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT DID CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TRAILING  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OTHERWISE...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS  
WILL PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH WIND CHILL READINGS  
DROPPING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
 
MONDAY WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER  
THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S WITH SOME LOCATIONS  
NEAR THE MO AND KY BORDERS REMAINING A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS  
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT WILL  
SEE LOW TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TUESDAY  
WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THIS WILL  
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO BETWEEN THE MIDDLE 40S AND LOWER 50S  
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.  
 
ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...AN  
UPPER LOW OVER TX IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE UPPER LOW IS  
FORECAST TO BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF.  
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY AS  
AN ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE  
DAY. LOOKS LIKE THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS  
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST RAIN BEING TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHWEST  
GULF COAST.  
 
THE WEATHER BECOMES INTERESTING AND COMPLICATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND  
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE NOT IN GOOD  
AGREEMENT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO  
OUR SOUTH MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING...IT LOOKS  
LIKE MOST OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH  
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW  
THE ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH.  
THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE COLDER AIR THAN THE ECMWF. SOME LIGHT RAIN  
IS INDICATED WITH THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO LIGHT  
SNOW FROM THE NORTH WITH SOME SLEET OR FREEZING POSSIBLE IN THE  
TRANSITION ZONE. FOR THURSDAY...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LIGHT WINTRY  
PRECIP MOVING FURTHER SOUTH AS THE ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH...  
BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY MOVES THE PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA BY  
AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST INTERACTING WITH THE COLD AIR THURSDAY  
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW...LOTS OF  
UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE MODELS  
COME TOGETHER ON THIS SITUATION REGARDING PRECIP IF ANY AND PRECIP  
TYPES.  
 
JCL  
 
AVIATION...  
 
12Z TAF CYCLE  
 
EXPECTING FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO DROP QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS A  
BAND OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD JBR AND MEM...MKL AND TUP  
SHORTLY. LOOKING AT OBS TO THE WEST...WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS EXIST  
WHICH WILL DEVELOP AT JBR AND MEM JUST AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. RAINFALL  
COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 21Z AT ALL TAF SITES.  
ADDED TEMPO THUNDER AT TUP WHERE SOME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO  
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST WINDOW FOR THIS LOOKS  
TO BE BETWEEN APPROX 20-23Z. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE  
10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS NEAR 18-20 KTS THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE  
SOUTH...GRADUALLY VEERING TO SOUTHWEST...THEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY  
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO  
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE FROM  
THE NORTHWEST. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  
 
TVT  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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