867  
FXUS64 KMEG 250445  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1145 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 859 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017/  
 
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH  
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THERE IS NOT  
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME BUT AN  
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND  
WESTERN ARKANSAS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE  
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE EVENING  
WORDING WITH NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED.  
 
ARS  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017/  
 
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG WITH A FEW  
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WERE PROVIDING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW  
AND MID 70S.  
 
UPCOMING WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED AS THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM  
TRAJECTORY REMAINS ACTIVE.  
 
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW CURRENT BROKEN  
LINE OF CONVECTION IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS LIFTING EAST  
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH  
BOTH A BOW ECHO AND LEWP. IF THIS PANS OUT IT WOULD LEAD TO A  
GREATER WIND AND TORNADO THREAT FOR THE DELTA COUNTIES. ACTIVITY  
WILL EXIT THE EAST BY SUNRISE LEAVING THE AREA WORKED OVER AND  
CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...BUT WITH THE COLD FRONT AND  
UPPER SUPPORT STILL TO THE WEST CONDITIONS WILL BY EARLY AFTERNOON  
SHOULD TURN AROUND WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT TRIGGERING NEAR THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE MORE DISCRETE  
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...WITH ALL SEVERE THREATS POSSIBLE.  
MODELS INDICATING CAPE AMOUNTS OF 800-1500 J/KG WITH 30 TO 50M  
HEIGHT FALLS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW LINGERING THUNDER  
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE EAST TILL MIDNIGHT...WITH PARTIAL  
CLEARING IN THE SOUTHWEST DELTA. GRADIENT WINDS THE NEXT 24 HOURS  
WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS A MAJORITY  
OF THE AREA BEFORE FROPA. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR WEST OF  
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KEPT LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND HIGHS  
ALIGNED WITH THE WARMER GFS TOMORROW.  
 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A BRIEF BREAK IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR SUNDAY  
WITH CONTINUED TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN  
CHANCES WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE  
MOVES INTO THE OZARKS. TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN  
WITH SEVERE WEATHER...LIKELY LARGE HAIL...MORE PROBABLE WITH  
ROUND TWO ON MONDAY.  
 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MILD AND DRY THIS PERIOD...WITH BUILDING  
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. THEIR IS AN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER  
TO FORM IN THE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE WARMER HOURS OF THE DAY.  
 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SIMILAR SCENARIO AS THE ONE FOR TONIGHT AND  
TOMORROW EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL DIFFER IN  
RESPECT OF TIMING...BUT THE NEXT CLOSED 500MB LOW WILL TAKE A  
SIMILAR TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE OZARKS WITH  
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDING IN THE PROCESS. BACKED WINDS  
THURSDAY WITH A LIFTING WARM FRONT COULD LEAD TO A BETTER TORNADO  
RISK FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL OVERALL.  
 
JAB  
 
AVIATION...  
 
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 18 HRS OR  
SO...DIMINISHING BELOW 10KT AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW. UNTIL THEN  
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20KT WITH GUSTS 30  
KT...STRONGER AND VARIABLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRECEDED BE SCATTERED SHOWERS  
TONIGHT. ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON RADAR AND  
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. PREVAILING THUNDER SHOULD ARRIVE AT MEM  
AROUND 9-10Z. PREVAILING VIS WILL BE MVFR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE  
SHOWERS...LIKELY IFR OR LOWER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  
CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AS SHOWERS BEGIN...LIKELY IFR WITH  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDDAY  
TOMORROW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL SITES LATE TOMORROW.  
 
30  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-  
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-  
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.  
 
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.  
 
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR BENTON MS-COAHOMA-  
DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-  
TUNICA-YALOBUSHA.  
 
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR CROCKETT-DYER-FAYETTE-  
GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-OBION-  
SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.  
 

 
 

 
 
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