998  
FXUS64 KMEG 260509  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1209 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015  
   
UPDATE
 
/ISSUED 901 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/  
 
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS  
EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. AN AREA OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF KENTUCKY THIS  
EVENING AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN  
SECTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A  
WEAKENING TREND AS THEY APPROACH TENNESSEE SO SEVERE WEATHER DOES  
NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT. RAISED POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS.  
 
ARS  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 614 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/  
 
CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SHEARING UPPER  
LOW IN MISSOURI AND A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STILL HANGING ON WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE  
60S. IN THE MIDLEVELS SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS TAKING PLACE...WITH  
WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE UPPER LEVELS IS ALSO STARTING TO ADVECT IN  
DRIER AIR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE OCCURRING AREA WIDE...WITH A  
FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI  
REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO HAVE SHAVED BACK THE CURRENT  
WIND ADVISORY TO JUST THESE AREAS. A TORNADO WATCH IS RUNNING  
ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOOTHEEL OF  
MISSOURI...WITH NOT MUCH ONGOING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WERE IN  
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AREAWIDE.  
 
IN THE SHORT TERM...DISSIPATING SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM  
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES THIS  
EVENING AHEAD OF A DESCENDING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL  
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER.  
TOWARDS DAWN STRATUS CLOUDS MAY FORM IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.  
 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND COOL THIS PERIOD AS THE  
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO AND  
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE  
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL  
LIKELY COOL FURTHER ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL START OFF NORTHERLY  
VEERING MORE EASTERLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER  
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH RAIN CHANCES  
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK EAST  
OVER THE MIDSOUTH DURING MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN MODELS  
STILL APPEAR BEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE  
FORTY. TO NOTE THE GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER...SO FOR NOW  
HAVE KEPT POPS TO CHANCE. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER DURING THE PERIOD  
AS ANY INSTABILITY APPEARS TO LIE ALONG AND SOUTH INTERSTATE  
TWENTY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FEATURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL  
REMAIN ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE  
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE  
COUNTRY STARTING THURSDAY AND HOLD FAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. DRIER  
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REGION...MAKING FOR  
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR NUMEROUS EVENTS IN THE AREA.  
 
JAB  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z TAF CYCLE  
 
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.  
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH  
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY. CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR  
BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY LIFR AT KMKL. CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR  
BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY THEN VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. N TO NE WINDS  
INCREASING SUNDAY TO NEAR 12 KTS WITH GUSTS 18-20 KTS. AFTER  
27/00Z...NE WINS DIMINISHING TO 6-10 KTS.  
 
JCL/KRM  
 

 
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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