839  
FXUS64 KMEG 230201  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
801 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR POP ADJUSTMENT AND TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
BASED OF RADAR TRENDS PRECIPITATION BANDS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDSOUTH COUNTIES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW  
CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS ALABAMA. SO INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY  
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND LOWERED THEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF  
JONESBORO AND ALONG THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION  
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN  
FORECASTED THIS EVENING...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TILL  
MORNING SO INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES.  
 
WIND ADVISORY GETTING INTO FULL SWING NOW OVER THE NORTHERN DELTA  
COUNTIES...WITH THE STRONGEST GRADIENT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST  
DELTA COUNTIES BY 04Z.  
 
JAB  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 643 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017/  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017/  
 
AT 3PM, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER  
50S WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN. WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW  
AN EXPANSIVE AND NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN  
OVER MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN ARKANSAS ASSOCIATED  
WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL LOW. LATEST WATER VAPOR  
IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE 540MB UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER  
THE ARKLAMISS. TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE, A LARGE SCALE SEVERE  
WEATHER OUTBREAK IS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.  
 
WITHIN OUR REGIME, ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW, MOSTLY  
STRATIFORM RAIN AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE MID-  
SOUTH. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS  
EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS  
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITH WINDS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA  
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, WILL CONTINUE THE  
ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.  
 
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...  
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL OCCUR  
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP  
INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. ALL  
RAIN WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 6 AM TOMORROW MORNING. SURFACE  
WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE  
GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES.  
 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND  
SEASONAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FOR MOST  
OF THE DAY ON MONDAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S  
AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY  
WITH THE AID OF RETURNING SUNSHINE.  
 
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY IN  
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN  
WEST. AS A RESULT, LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THE  
SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVERSE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD  
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-  
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A  
LOW CHANCE OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. MOST OF THE MOISTURE  
WILL LIKELY ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS DURING THE DAY, WITH THE  
BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST  
MISSISSIPPI. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.  
 
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...  
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR  
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND  
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH  
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LONG TERM MODEL  
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MOSTLY BENIGN AND DRY WEATHER  
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED.  
 
AC3  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
00Z TAFS  
 
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES  
EXCEPT KJBR...WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. IFR CONDITIONS  
WILL CONTINUE...EXCEPT KJBR...THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAIN  
SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING  
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND BECOME  
QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
 
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY MORNING AT ALL SITES AND REMAIN  
IN PLACE AT KMKL AND KTUP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST  
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO BOTH KJBR AND KMEM BY LATE  
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL  
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
JLH  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-  
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-  
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.  
 
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.  
 
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-  
PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.  
 
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR CROCKETT-DYER-FAYETTE-  
HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.  
 

 
 

 
 
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