698  
FXUS64 KMEG 070201 AAA  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
900 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015  
   
UPDATE
 
 
A PERSISTENT BUT RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE  
PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS  
VERY MOIST THROUGH THIS AREA. THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.74 INCHES. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE  
IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT...LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. UPDATED  
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION THIS THREAT. ALSO...HAVE  
ALREADY UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS TO INCREASE THE POPS  
THROUGH THIS AREA...AND ADJUSTED THE QPF GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING. THE  
HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA OF CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT  
FEW HOURS...BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.  
 
JCL  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 340 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/  
 
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DIURNAL  
MAXIMUM OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY INTO  
THIS EVENING AS THE MID SOUTH REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN WEATHER  
SYSTEMS.  
 
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE  
MID SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED  
WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA AND HELP TO  
INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTER  
MIDNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL  
MOVE EAST TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS  
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE COMING TO AN END.  
 
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON  
AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TO THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHERN CWA  
BORDER. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS  
NORTHERN AREAS. AS MLCAPES EXCEED 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR  
RANGES BETWEEN 20-30 KTS...THERE MAY BE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO  
DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE  
WEATHER WILL OCCUR. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR HEAVY  
RAINFALL AS STORMS TEND TO MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS.  
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD  
POTENTIAL.  
 
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS  
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTING  
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD LOWER POPS  
AREAWIDE AND CONFINE CHANCES FOR STORMS TO OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS.  
THESE STORM CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS  
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AS THE SHORTWAVE CLIPS THESE AREAS.  
 
FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND....UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS  
STRONG OVER THE AREA WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL MID JULY SUMMER  
WEATHER. SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED  
THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND  
WITH A RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES  
HELPING TO INCREASE STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS  
OF THE MID SOUTH.  
 
JLH  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF CYCLE  
 
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO THE KTUP AREA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY  
MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS  
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM  
THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.  
 
ARS  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TN Page
The Nexlab MS Page
The Nexlab AR Page Main Text Page