459  
FXUS64 KMEG 011129  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
629 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014  
   
UPDATE
 
AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 252 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/  
 
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH  
THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
CURRENTLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO TURN AROUND  
TO THE SOUTH. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN  
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER  
THE MIDSOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT 24  
HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH  
THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CAN/T RULE OUT  
A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS  
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT  
DRY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.  
 
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE  
MIDSOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO BEGIN POPPING ACROSS THE  
AREA BETWEEN 3-5 PM. MEANWHILE...A SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP ALONG  
THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED BACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND  
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO OUTRACE THE FRONT DURING  
THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE A TAD SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION  
THE LINE THAN LAST NIGHTS RUN. EXPECT SQUALL LINE TO MOVE INTO  
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BETWEEN 8-10PM. THE LINE WILL ROUGHLY BE  
LOCATED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 12-2 AM. THE AIRMASS  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH MODELS INDICATING CAPE  
VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2200 J/KG. THE NAM IS SHOWING EVEN HIGHER CAPE  
VALUES. HOWEVER...THE MODEL DOES NOT SHOW ANY WAA SHOWERS  
OCCURRING IN THE MORNING LIKE THE GFS. THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS  
AROUND THURSDAY MORNING AND IF WAA SHOWERS DO OCCUR LIKE THE GFS  
IS INDICATING...THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AT LEAST INITIALLY.  
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT AIRMASS TO BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO  
SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS BUT BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER  
WILL COME FROM THE SQUALL LINE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL  
BE THE MAIN THREATS. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK EASTWARD TO  
A LINE STRETCHING FROM PARIS...TO BOLIVAR...TO OXFORD. WITH LATEST  
MODELS INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH SQUALL  
LINE...WILL KEEP SLIGHT RISK IN HWO AS IS...COVERING EASTERN ARKANSAS  
AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. SQUALL LINE WILL BEGIN WEAKENING FROM  
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING  
HOURS.  
 
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE FOR AREAS EAST OF  
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY. BY  
AFTERNOON...SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONLY  
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER  
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 
EXPECT BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS  
IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S.  
 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL. MODELS ARE  
NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.  
 
KRM  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
12Z TAF CYCLE  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
PATCHY FOR WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME  
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TONIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE.  
WINDS 5-10KT LIGHT MAINLY FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS  
OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH JBR AND POSSIBLY MEM TOWARD THE END  
OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE  
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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