000  
FGUS74 KHGX 191922  
ESFHGX  
200722-  
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX  
222 PM CDT THU OCT 19 2017  
 
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE  
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE TRINITY RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...  
 
THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS  
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE  
TRINITY RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC  
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.  
 
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE  
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE TRINITY RIVER AT LIBERTY HAS A FLOOD  
STAGE OF 26 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE LIBERTY  
FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 22.5 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID 10/18/2017 - 01/16/2018  
 
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
------------------------------------------------------------------  
TRINITY RIVER  
CROCKETT 41.0 8.6 9.8 10.5 11.9 14.2 15.8 19.7 23.0 31.5  
BEDIAS CREEK  
MADISONVILLE 19.0 1.9 6.7 12.3 13.4 14.3 14.9 15.7 17.1 20.3  
TRINITY RIVER  
RIVERSIDE 134.0 131.5 131.6 131.8 132.0 132.1 132.3 132.7 133.6 136.2  
LONG KING CREEK  
LIVINGSTON 19.0 4.4 5.6 6.7 9.0 13.4 18.5 20.0 22.6 25.1  
LOWER TRINITY RIVER  
GOODRICH 36.0 7.4 9.4 11.2 13.3 17.9 19.4 22.2 29.1 33.8  
RYE CREEK  
RYE 20.0 9.3 10.6 12.1 16.0 19.9 21.2 23.1 24.1 24.7  
TRINITY RIVER  
ROMAYOR 40.0 13.2 15.2 17.0 19.3 22.7 23.7 25.7 31.1 34.3  
LIBERTY 26.0 7.7 10.2 14.1 18.5 22.5 23.0 25.7 27.9 29.0  
MOSS BLUFF 15.0 4.8 5.1 6.5 8.2 9.8 10.0 11.3 12.8 13.9  
 
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE  
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL  
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE  
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.  
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE  
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN  
BE DETERMINED.  
 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE  
INTERNET AT: WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI!HGX  
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).  
 
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD  
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.  
 

 
 
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