635  
FGUS74 KHGX 171554  
ESFHGX  
180353-  
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX  
954 AM CST FRI NOV 17 2017  
 
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE  
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR HARRIS COUNTY WATERSHEDS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...  
 
THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS  
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR HARRIS  
COUNTY WATERSHEDS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS  
ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.  
 
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE  
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: GREENS BAYOU AT U.S.HWY 59 IN HOUSTON HAS A FLOOD  
STAGE OF 55 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE U.S. HWY 59 FORECAST  
POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 47.3 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID 11/15/2017 - 02/13/2018  
 
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
-------------------------------------------------------------------  
SPRING CREEK  
TOMBALL 165.2 146.4 146.6 147.0 147.3 147.7 148.1 148.7 149.4 150.5  
CYPRESS CREEK  
KATY-HOCKLEY 157.3 151.5 152.5 153.3 154.2 155.2 156.4 157.5 158.9 159.3  
GRANT ROAD 122.0 108.3 110.0 110.6 111.5 113.0 113.8 116.5 118.5 120.3  
GREENS BAYOU  
KNOBCREST ST 84.8 76.9 77.4 78.0 78.3 78.4 78.7 79.3 79.7 80.9  
U.S. HWY 59 55.0 44.7 45.7 46.5 47.0 47.3 47.8 49.1 49.8 52.2  
LEY ROAD 30.0 10.7 12.7 14.1 15.7 17.6 18.6 20.8 23.0 26.1  
WHITE OAK BAYOU  
HEIGHTS BLVD 32.0 10.5 11.3 13.6 16.6 18.1 19.4 23.7 26.9 29.2  
BRAYS BAYOU  
MAIN STREET 41.0 18.4 19.0 19.7 24.0 25.3 27.1 29.0 30.5 32.8  
BUFFALO BAYOU  
WEST BELT 62.2 40.8 42.0 42.7 43.6 44.3 44.7 45.6 46.1 48.0  
PINEY POINT 52.0 33.2 34.0 34.6 35.2 36.0 36.9 37.7 38.4 40.9  
SHEPHERD DR 28.0 5.8 6.8 7.8 9.5 11.0 11.6 12.9 13.8 15.8  
 
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE  
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL  
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE  
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.  
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE  
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN  
BE DETERMINED.  
 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE  
INTERNET AT: WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI!HGX  
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).  
 
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD  
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.  
 

 
 
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