685  
FXUS64 KEPZ 230947  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
347 AM MDT SAT SEP 23 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WESTERN U.S. STORM SYSTEM DROPPING OVER UTAH HAS HELPED TO DRAW  
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIO  
GRANDE THIS MEANS A STREAM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
MOVING OVER EL PASO, HUDSPETH, AND OTERO COUNTIES TODAY AND  
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH  
FLOODING POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE  
WILL REMAIN DRY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE BACK OUT OF  
THE BORDERLAND FOR DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A  
COOL PUSH FROM THE EAST ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENS  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER WITH  
A RETURN FOR RAIN CHANCES.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE MOISTURE TAP HAS OCCURRED AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES  
TO SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE SW U.S. WINDS BACKING TO A MORE  
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IS DRAWING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE  
REGION FROM THE SOUTH. AT LOWER LEVELS MOISTURE IS MOVING BACK IN  
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING HAS  
DEVELOPED OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. PWS WILL RISE BACK TO 1+  
INCHES OVER AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, AND UPPER LEVEL  
DYNAMICS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THESE AREAS. ALREADY WE ARE  
SEEING A STREAM OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS.  
THESE SHOULD CONTINUE AND CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER THESE EASTERN  
ZONES. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH QPF  
OVER AN INCH IN LOCATIONS OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. THUS  
WE'RE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY  
MORNING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OVER THESE AREAS (IT ALSO  
INCLUDES EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY).  
 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW TO OUR WEST SPITS OUT THE  
FIRST MAJOR LOBE OF ENERGY AND ALLOWS A COMPLETE SHIFT TO WESTERLY  
FLOW OVER THE CWFA. THIS SHOULD SWEEP OUR EASTERN MOISTURE BACK  
TO THE EAST AND OUT OF OUR AREA. THUS WE TRIM BACK POPS AND KEEP  
NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY  
SEASONAL, WINDS SHOULD BE DOWN A BIT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. MOST  
OF TUESDAY APPEARS TO SHOW THE SAME CONDITIONS.  
 
WEDNESDAY THE SAME UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS TO OUR WEST, BUT THE  
MAIN LOW LIFTS AWAY TO BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY A MORE SOUTHERN LOW  
CENTER OVER AZ. THIS HELPS TO DRAW IN A SURFACE COOL FRONT FROM  
THE EAST AND SHIFT UPPER WINDS TOWARDS THE SOUTH. WITH NEW AIR  
FROM THE EAST COMES THE RETURN OF MOISTURE WITH PWS BACK ABOVE 1"  
AGAIN. THERE APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR MORE  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH A SPREAD OF POTENTIAL ACROSS  
THE ENTIRE CWFA. THE INITIAL EAST FRONTAL PUSH IS WEAK, BUT IT IS  
A PERSISTENT FEATURE WHICH IS REINFORCED BY MUCH STRONGER PUSHES  
THU AND FRI. THIS SURFACE CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE MOISTURE  
GAINS AND UPPER AIR INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN HEALTHY RAIN  
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT  
WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS THERE GIVEN THE VEERING  
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE, IF THE SURFACE COOLING ISN'T SO MUCH AS TO  
LIMIT INSTABILITY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...VALID 23/12Z-24/12Z
 
 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A RISK FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF  
THE RIO GRANDE TODAY OVER PARTS OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH AND EL PASO  
COUNTIES. VFR CONDITIONS WEST OF THE RIO. VCTS AT ELP AND LRU.  
WINDS SW-W 15-20KTS WEST OF RIO GRANDE...S 10-15KTS EAST. TEMPO  
ISOL CIGS 050 AND VSBY 1-3SM IN VCTY OF TSRA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS PULLING  
SOME ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE  
RIO GRANDE TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT DRY AIR WILL PERSIST IN SW  
NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DROP TO NEAR NORMAL BY  
SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND  
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BY TUESDAY, MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF  
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 89 65 85 62 / 40 30 0 0  
SIERRA BLANCA 85 62 83 61 / 70 40 0 0  
LAS CRUCES 84 56 82 54 / 30 0 0 0  
ALAMOGORDO 84 59 83 57 / 60 20 0 0  
CLOUDCROFT 67 46 65 43 / 70 30 0 0  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 83 55 81 52 / 0 0 0 0  
SILVER CITY 77 50 74 50 / 10 0 0 0  
DEMING 84 52 81 50 / 10 0 0 0  
LORDSBURG 81 50 79 49 / 0 0 0 0  
WEST EL PASO METRO 87 65 84 62 / 30 20 0 0  
DELL CITY 87 62 84 61 / 70 50 0 10  
FORT HANCOCK 90 65 86 64 / 70 40 0 0  
LOMA LINDA 85 63 82 60 / 60 30 0 0  
FABENS 90 65 86 63 / 60 30 0 0  
SANTA TERESA 87 62 84 58 / 30 0 0 0  
WHITE SANDS HQ 85 60 83 57 / 30 10 0 0  
JORNADA RANGE 85 57 83 54 / 30 0 0 0  
HATCH 85 55 83 52 / 20 0 0 0  
COLUMBUS 86 55 83 52 / 20 0 0 0  
OROGRANDE 85 63 83 59 / 50 20 0 0  
MAYHILL 76 52 76 49 / 80 40 0 10  
MESCALERO 76 51 75 48 / 80 30 0 0  
TIMBERON 75 51 74 49 / 70 30 0 0  
WINSTON 79 47 78 43 / 20 0 0 0  
HILLSBORO 83 51 80 49 / 10 0 0 0  
SPACEPORT 84 55 82 52 / 20 0 0 0  
LAKE ROBERTS 77 44 76 41 / 20 0 0 0  
HURLEY 80 50 77 50 / 10 0 0 0  
CLIFF 78 44 76 43 / 10 0 0 0  
MULE CREEK 78 46 75 45 / 10 0 0 0  
FAYWOOD 82 50 78 48 / 10 0 0 0  
ANIMAS 82 49 81 48 / 0 0 0 0  
HACHITA 84 50 82 48 / 0 0 0 0  
ANTELOPE WELLS 84 50 82 49 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOVERDALE 80 50 78 48 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE  
TONIGHT FOR NMZ414>417.  
 
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE  
TONIGHT FOR TXZ419>424.  
 

 
 

 
 
14-BIRD  
 
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