763  
FXUS64 KEPZ 262113  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
313 PM MDT WED JUL 26 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
OUR MONSOON SEASON CONTINUES THIS WEEK AS WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE  
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE  
START OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN AREA  
MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN  
EQUAL CHANCES EVERYWHERE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL STAY NEAR AVERAGE.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL WOBBLE AROUND THE REGION FOR THE  
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. USUALLY THE RIDGE WOULD CAP OUR THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES AND FOR SURE IT IS SLOWING THEM DOWN, BUT WITH SO MUCH  
MOISTURE WE ARE STILL ABLE TO GET A FAIR NUMBER OF STORMS POPPED  
UP AND GOING. CURRENTLY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER  
THE EAST PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IT  
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST TO OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AS IT MOVES  
WEST IT WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO SOME DRIER, CONTINENTAL AIR TO  
OUR EAST AND SWEEP THAT INTO THE EASTERN PART OF OUR AREA.  
STARTING ON FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE OUR  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE (BUT NOT DISAPPEAR) FOR LOCATIONS  
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. A PRETTY HEALTHY MOISTURE PLUME WILL  
CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS OUT WEST SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT  
REGION FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN. FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK  
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST AND  
THAT WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO SLIP  
BACK INTO THE AREA AND AT THE SAME TIME THE CIRCULATION AROUND  
THE HIGH WILL MOVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION  
FROM THE NORTH. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL GIVE AN UPTICK TO OUR  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. FOR THE MIDDLE  
OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE DOES NOT MOVE VERY FAR AND THAT WILL  
CONTINUE OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. WE MAY SEE SOME  
DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT EVEN  
THEN IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ENOUGH DRYING TO YANK THE RAIN CHANCES.  
NO BIG CHANGES TO OUR TEMPERATURES FROM DAY TO DAY. FOR THE NEXT  
SEVEN DAYS OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO  
OF SEASONAL AVERAGES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...VALID 27/00Z-28/00Z
 
 
IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE  
PERIOD WITH P6SM SCT060-080 SCT-BKN250. HOWEVER A RISK OF LATE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST WHICH COULD RESULT IN  
OCCASIONAL MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS THRU 12Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE  
AOB 10 KNOTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE  
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIP  
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY  
STAGES OF NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT BY THE TIME WE REACH THE  
WEEKEND THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SHIFTING WEST OF THE RIO  
GRANDE. MEANWHILE, STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING, MEANING  
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN. MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN  
IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE OR HIGHER DESPITE NEAR NORMAL  
AFTERNOON TEMPS. VENT RATES WHICH HAVE BEEN GENERALLY POOR LATELY  
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORIES IN THE COMING DAYS AS  
TRANSPORT WIND SPEEDS INCREASE JUST A BIT.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 74 95 73 97 / 30 20 20 10  
SIERRA BLANCA 70 94 69 95 / 20 20 10 10  
LAS CRUCES 70 93 69 94 / 30 30 30 10  
ALAMOGORDO 70 92 69 95 / 30 40 30 20  
CLOUDCROFT 55 72 54 73 / 40 60 50 30  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 94 69 94 / 30 40 40 30  
SILVER CITY 65 87 63 85 / 40 60 60 50  
DEMING 70 94 68 93 / 30 30 40 20  
LORDSBURG 70 93 69 91 / 30 30 40 40  
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 94 73 96 / 30 20 20 10  
DELL CITY 71 97 70 99 / 20 20 10 10  
FORT HANCOCK 74 96 74 98 / 20 20 20 10  
LOMA LINDA 69 88 68 91 / 30 20 20 10  
FABENS 74 95 73 98 / 30 20 20 10  
SANTA TERESA 73 94 71 96 / 40 20 20 10  
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 93 70 95 / 30 30 30 10  
JORNADA RANGE 69 93 68 95 / 30 30 40 10  
HATCH 70 96 69 96 / 40 30 40 10  
COLUMBUS 71 94 69 94 / 40 20 40 20  
OROGRANDE 72 94 71 96 / 30 30 20 10  
MAYHILL 58 81 58 82 / 40 60 50 30  
MESCALERO 59 81 58 82 / 40 60 50 30  
TIMBERON 59 79 58 81 / 40 50 50 30  
WINSTON 62 86 60 86 / 50 60 60 50  
HILLSBORO 67 91 65 91 / 50 50 60 50  
SPACEPORT 69 94 68 95 / 30 40 40 10  
LAKE ROBERTS 59 87 59 84 / 50 60 60 60  
HURLEY 65 89 63 87 / 30 40 50 40  
CLIFF 66 92 65 91 / 40 50 60 60  
MULE CREEK 66 89 65 87 / 30 40 50 60  
FAYWOOD 65 89 64 89 / 40 50 50 40  
ANIMAS 70 92 68 91 / 30 30 50 40  
HACHITA 69 93 67 92 / 30 20 50 30  
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 92 67 90 / 30 30 50 40  
CLOVERDALE 64 87 64 86 / 30 30 50 50  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
BRICE/LANEY  
 
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