099
FXUS64 KEPZ 220513
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1113 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1028 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
- WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WITH LOWLAND
HIGHS IN THE 80S. THIS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
OCTOBER.
- WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH INTO THE
REGION. SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL.
- THE FLOOD THREAT LINGERS FOR EASTERN AREAS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE STORM
CHANCES DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS AND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER ARIZONA AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND PARTS OF
COLORADO. FAVORABLE FORCING AND LIFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THE GILA REGION AND NEARBY AREAS
MOSTLY WEST OF RIO GRANDE EXTENDING TO THE ARIZONA BORDER.
THERE IS A A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS WEST
OF THE RIO GRANDE ON THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL, STRONG
WIND GUSTS, AND MAYBE A LOW PROBABILITY SHORT LIVED WEAK TORNADO.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA REGION
AND NEARBY SURROUNDING AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA FROM NOON THURSDAY THROUGH 6AM FRIDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE GILA REGION.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO CENTERED ON THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM EL PASO NORTH TO
ALBUQUERQUE. THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FOR AREAS
GENERALLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE MOISTURE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
LOCAL AREA SUNDAY IN TO MONDAY WITH A RETURN DRIER AND CALMER
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A FEW DAYS. LONG TERM OUTLOOK DOES HAVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NM/AZ BORDER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OUTFLOWS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS MAY
REACH KLRU AND KELP SHIFTING WINDS MORE FROM THE WEST FOR A FEW
HOURS.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER
18Z THAT WILL LIKELY IMPACT KTCS, KDMN AND KLRU WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN MIXED WITH
HAIL BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THOSE SITES
INTO THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT KELP LATER THURSDAY
EVENING AFTER 00Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD AS MIN RHS STAY
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND 20 FOOT WINDS STAY 5-10 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL BE 30-50% EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MIN RHS WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 50-
80% IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS EACH DAY. CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY.
FOCUS FOR STORMS THURSDAY WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
MOSTLY AREAWIDE CHANCES FRIDAY, BUT DRIER AIR DOES PUSH INTO FAR
WESTERN LOCATIONS SATURDAY DAMPENING CHANCES OUT THAT WAY, BUT
ELSEWHERE WILL STILL HAVE GOOD CHANCES. LINGERING STORM CHANCES
EXIST FOR FAR WEST TX AND OTERO CO SUNDAY. EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AND POTENTIALLY INTO SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING,
HAIL, AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 65 86 63 83 / 0 40 50 70
SIERRA BLANCA 58 82 58 80 / 0 0 10 50
LAS CRUCES 61 81 57 77 / 20 50 70 60
ALAMOGORDO 59 82 59 80 / 0 20 30 80
CLOUDCROFT 45 62 45 59 / 0 10 30 90
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 76 57 75 / 20 60 70 70
SILVER CITY 57 71 51 69 / 40 90 100 50
DEMING 61 81 55 77 / 20 60 80 40
LORDSBURG 62 77 55 75 / 60 70 70 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 85 64 82 / 0 40 60 70
DELL CITY 59 85 60 84 / 0 0 10 60
FORT HANCOCK 64 91 65 90 / 0 10 20 60
LOMA LINDA 58 79 58 77 / 0 20 20 70
FABENS 64 89 63 87 / 0 30 40 60
SANTA TERESA 64 84 60 80 / 10 40 60 70
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 84 61 81 / 10 40 60 70
JORNADA RANGE 61 81 57 78 / 10 50 70 70
HATCH 61 82 57 79 / 20 50 60 60
COLUMBUS 64 84 59 80 / 20 50 70 40
OROGRANDE 60 82 58 80 / 0 20 30 80
MAYHILL 50 72 50 70 / 0 10 20 90
MESCALERO 50 73 49 70 / 0 10 30 90
TIMBERON 49 69 47 66 / 0 10 30 90
WINSTON 51 68 48 67 / 20 80 90 50
HILLSBORO 60 75 54 74 / 20 70 80 60
SPACEPORT 59 78 55 75 / 20 50 70 70
LAKE ROBERTS 54 70 48 69 / 40 90 100 50
HURLEY 57 74 51 72 / 40 80 100 50
CLIFF 59 77 55 75 / 70 90 100 60
MULE CREEK 55 72 52 70 / 90 100 100 60
FAYWOOD 59 74 53 71 / 30 80 90 60
ANIMAS 61 80 56 78 / 50 60 50 20
HACHITA 60 80 55 77 / 50 60 60 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 60 83 56 80 / 30 50 50 20
CLOVERDALE 58 77 54 73 / 30 50 40 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EASTERN BLACK
RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHERN GILA REGION HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
FORECASTER...04-LUNDEEN
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