354  
FXUS64 KEPZ 281039  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
439 AM MDT SUN MAY 28 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO WEST-FACING  
MOUNTAIN SLOPE AREAS THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL BY  
A FEW DEGREES, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. AN ADDITIONAL  
PUSH OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,  
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEEK OF SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
MESONET OBS AND RADAR FINE-LINE SHOW THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS  
ALMOST CRESTED THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, IS BEGINNING TO SPILL  
DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS IN SOCORRO COUNTY,  
HAS PUSHED DOWN THE TULAROSA BASIN ABOUT AS FAR AS WHITE SANDS  
NATIONAL MONUMENT, AND HAS SPILLED OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE  
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND IS NOW JUST EAST OF THE HUECO MOUNTAINS.  
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL PATCH OF LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED  
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTOS JUST EAST OF MESCALERO  
AND CLOUDCROFT. ALL-SKY CAMERAS IN MAYHILL AND SACRAMENTO CONFIRM  
OVERCAST SKIES. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF DONA ANA,  
SOUTHERN OTERO, EL PASO, AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. THERE MAY BE SOME  
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS HIDING UNDER THE CIRRUS IN EASTERN HUDSPETH.  
 
PEAK WIND GUSTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN 45 MPH AT THE MCGREGOR RANGE RAWS  
AND A FEW 42 MPH REPORTS ON THE UPPER PART OF WSMR JUST EAST OF  
THE SAN ANDRES RANGE. DELL CITY GUSTED TO 37 MPH, BUT WINDS HAVE  
SINCE DIMINISHED THERE. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL REACH AREAS WEST  
OF THE HUECO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 4:30 AND 5:00 AM, AND WEST EL PASO  
AND THE LAS CRUCES EAST MESA AROUND 5:00 AM OR SHORTLY AFTER.  
WINDS COULD SNEAK INTO THE LOWER END OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR  
A COUPLE HOURS.  
 
BEHIND THE FRONT, DEWPOINTS SPIKE FROM THE SINGLE-DIGITS AND TEENS  
INTO THE 40S. HOWEVER, THIS IS IN A FAIRLY SHALLOW LAYER, AND MOST  
AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER-30S BY  
AFTERNOON, WITH TEENS AND 20S TO THE WEST.  
 
WE WILL SEE A SECOND "EAST PUSH" LATE TONIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING  
WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH BACK TO THE FAVORED EAST SLOPE  
LOCATIONS (INCLUDING HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WEST EL PASO), AND GIVE  
US SOME DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL NOT MIX-OUT SO EASILY.  
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TONGUE OF 50-55F DEWPOINTS STRETCHING  
FROM HUDSPETH COUNTY INTO THE NM BOOTHEEL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH  
SE FLOW EXTENDING UP ABOVE 700 MB. UNDER THIS MOIST PLUME, CAPE  
VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL  
WESTERLIES WILL BRING IN SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT, BUT NO  
REALLY-STRONG/OBVIOUS FEATURE. HOWEVER, EASTERLIES WILL PROVIDE  
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND GILA REGIONS.  
UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA WRF MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN  
DEVELOPING TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION BY MIDDAY MONDAY, WITH STORM  
MOTION FAVORING PROPAGATION INTO THE LOWLANDS WHERE MOISTURE AND  
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE  
THAT OUTFLOW CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE  
CLUSTER MONDAY EVENING. NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW 700 MB THETA-E RIDGE  
RIGHT OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY EVENING, PROVIDING A RIPE  
ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS TO HOLD TOGETHER AFTER DARK.  
 
SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK, WITH 700 MB WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, AND  
JUST 20-30 KNOTS AT 500 MB. AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL IS POSSIBLE,  
BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT EXPECTED.  
 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK NEARLY THE SAME AS MONDAY BUT WITH  
SOME DRIER AIR IMPINGING ON THE NM BOOTHEEL, AND SHIFTING THE  
FOCUS FOR STORMS FURTHER EAST LATER IN THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE ARIZONA BORDER BY 15Z.  
EXPECT WIND GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS IMMEDIATELY WEST OF AREA MOUNTAIN  
RANGES. THOUGH MOST TERMINALS WILL BE IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE FOR  
GUSTS, KDMN COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE EARLY THIS  
MORNING GIVEN NE WIND DIRECTION.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
BACKDOOR FRONT HAS CRESTED THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND OTERO MESA  
THIS MORNING, BRINGING A BOOST IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS FRONT  
WILL PUSH TO THE ARIZONA BORDER BY MID-MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
WILL MOSTLY MIX OUT ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE, AND MIN  
RH VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN FAR SW NEW  
MEXICO. EXPECT A STRONGER PUSH OF MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT, SETTING  
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SNEAK BACK INTO SW NEW MEXICO  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHICH COULD BRING THE RISK OF DRY  
LIGHTNING TO THE GILA AND BOOTHEEL REGIONS. BUT DECENT WETTING  
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEK.  
 
A STRAY DRY THUNDERSTORM COULD AFFECT EASTERN PARTS OF THE GILA  
THIS AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY EXTENDING EAST OF THE BLACK RANGE INTO  
NORTHERN SIERRA COUNTY AS WELL. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO  
POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 88 66 89 65 / 0 0 20 50  
SIERRA BLANCA 81 63 85 62 / 0 10 50 40  
LAS CRUCES 89 61 88 61 / 0 0 20 50  
ALAMOGORDO 87 56 86 60 / 0 0 20 30  
CLOUDCROFT 63 41 62 44 / 10 10 50 30  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 87 59 86 59 / 0 0 30 40  
SILVER CITY 84 53 82 54 / 0 0 40 20  
DEMING 89 60 88 60 / 0 0 30 30  
LORDSBURG 90 61 89 60 / 0 0 30 20  
WEST EL PASO METRO 87 66 88 65 / 0 0 20 50  
DELL CITY 83 55 88 60 / 0 0 10 40  
FORT HANCOCK 88 65 90 65 / 0 0 30 40  
LOMA LINDA 81 60 83 60 / 0 0 20 40  
FABENS 89 63 89 65 / 0 0 30 50  
SANTA TERESA 89 62 88 63 / 0 0 20 50  
WHITE SANDS HQ 86 66 87 64 / 0 0 20 50  
JORNADA RANGE 88 58 88 59 / 0 0 20 40  
HATCH 91 57 89 59 / 0 0 20 40  
COLUMBUS 91 62 89 61 / 0 0 30 30  
OROGRANDE 85 63 88 62 / 0 0 10 40  
MAYHILL 69 45 71 48 / 10 10 40 30  
MESCALERO 73 45 73 48 / 10 10 40 30  
TIMBERON 73 42 73 48 / 0 0 40 30  
WINSTON 79 41 78 47 / 10 10 50 40  
HILLSBORO 85 51 84 55 / 0 0 40 40  
SPACEPORT 90 51 87 56 / 0 0 20 30  
LAKE ROBERTS 84 40 81 46 / 0 0 50 30  
HURLEY 84 48 83 53 / 0 0 40 20  
CLIFF 90 50 87 54 / 0 0 40 20  
MULE CREEK 88 55 85 56 / 0 0 50 20  
FAYWOOD 86 52 85 55 / 0 0 40 30  
ANIMAS 92 61 91 59 / 0 0 20 20  
HACHITA 90 58 89 58 / 0 0 30 20  
ANTELOPE WELLS 92 58 89 58 / 0 0 20 20  
CLOVERDALE 90 54 88 56 / 0 0 30 20  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
25-HARDIMAN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page
The Nexlab NM Page Main Text Page