115  
FXUS64 KEPZ 222127  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
327 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH 100  
DEGREE PLUS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS. THE WARMEST  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE EL PASO  
METRO AREAS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL  
SUNDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR  
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL  
GRADUALLY INCREASE NEXT WEEK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH MUCH OF THE  
LOWLAND DESERTS EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES IN THE 103 TO 107  
DEGREES RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE  
AREA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HOT ON SATURDAY, BUT MAYBE A COUPLE OF  
DEGREES COOLER. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR  
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM JUST NORTH OF LAS CRUCES THROUGH THE  
EL PASO METRO AREA AND FURTHER SOUTH TO FORT HANCOCK. THIS IS THE  
AREA WHERE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY AS WEST FLOW  
BRINGS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS TO THE REGION. THIS FEATURE IS  
PART OF A PATTERN SHIFT THAT HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING  
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL  
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS EAST OF THE AREA.  
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ON  
SUNDAY.  
 
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, HOT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN,  
BUT WILL NOT BE AS HOT AS IS OCCURRING TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT  
WILL PARTIALLY RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT  
WEEK, BUT IT WILL BE LESS DEFINED AND WILL BE IMPACTED BY PASSING  
SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH AND EASTERLY WAVES PASSING TO THE SOUTH.  
OVERALL, IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.  
MODEST INTRUSIONS OF MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO  
DEVELOP OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  
WINDS OVER ALL WILL BE LIGHT.  
 
THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE AIR MASS TOWARD THE  
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS  
TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS MAY INCREASE  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, A  
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL STILL TRY TO KEEP THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE  
AREA. SO, CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
VALID 23/00Z-24/00Z.  
HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE  
NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED CU BUILD UPS EXPECTED OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS  
IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND GILA REGION THROUGH 02Z AND AGAIN  
AFTER 23/20Z. WINDS 240-280/10-15KTS GENLY ALL AREAS THROUGH 03Z.  
WINDS 280-300/15-20G25KTS SOUTHERN NM AND FAR WEST TX TERMINALS  
AFTER 23/18Z.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME CUMULUS  
BUILDUPS ON TAP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON. BROAD NORTHWEST  
FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS  
THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL SUSTAIN  
BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS FOR ALL AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. WEAK  
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL FOLLOW AND REDEVELOP OVER THE REGION  
STARTING TUESDAY...FOR A RETURN TO LIGHTER WINDS. THERE IS A THREAT  
OF ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS MAINLY FOR THE SACS STARTING THE MIDDLE  
OF NEXT WEEK, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY TRY TO SNEAK IN FROM THE  
EAST AT THAT TIME. LOWLAND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90'S TO  
107. MOUNTAIN READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE HIGH 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.  
THE PATTERN OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WILL ENSURE VERY GOOD TO  
EXCELLENT VENT RATES AREAWIDE FRIDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK. MIN RH WILL  
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 78 105 79 101 / 0 0 0 0  
SIERRA BLANCA 75 103 75 100 / 0 0 0 0  
LAS CRUCES 71 103 72 99 / 0 0 0 0  
ALAMOGORDO 71 103 71 99 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOUDCROFT 59 83 58 79 / 0 0 0 0  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 103 73 99 / 0 0 0 0  
SILVER CITY 66 96 65 90 / 0 0 0 0  
DEMING 69 102 70 98 / 0 0 0 0  
LORDSBURG 69 101 69 95 / 0 0 0 0  
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 104 79 100 / 0 0 0 0  
DELL CITY 73 106 72 103 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT HANCOCK 77 107 77 102 / 0 0 0 0  
LOMA LINDA 73 100 72 96 / 0 0 0 0  
FABENS 74 106 76 100 / 0 0 0 0  
SANTA TERESA 75 104 75 99 / 0 0 0 0  
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 104 74 100 / 0 0 0 0  
JORNADA RANGE 69 104 71 100 / 0 0 0 0  
HATCH 70 105 71 100 / 0 0 0 0  
COLUMBUS 71 103 73 99 / 0 0 0 0  
OROGRANDE 74 104 73 101 / 0 0 0 0  
MAYHILL 63 91 63 89 / 0 0 0 0  
MESCALERO 61 92 61 87 / 0 0 0 0  
TIMBERON 62 89 62 86 / 0 0 0 0  
WINSTON 62 95 63 91 / 0 0 0 0  
HILLSBORO 66 100 67 96 / 0 0 0 0  
SPACEPORT 69 103 70 100 / 0 0 0 0  
LAKE ROBERTS 58 94 58 89 / 0 0 0 0  
HURLEY 66 98 66 92 / 0 0 0 0  
CLIFF 62 101 61 94 / 0 0 0 0  
MULE CREEK 66 98 65 92 / 0 0 0 0  
FAYWOOD 66 98 68 94 / 0 0 0 0  
ANIMAS 68 101 69 96 / 0 0 0 0  
HACHITA 69 102 69 96 / 0 0 0 0  
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 100 68 95 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOVERDALE 65 95 66 90 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR NMZ411.  
 
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ418-419-423.  
 

 
 

 
 
04/22 LUNDEEN/TRIPOLI  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page
The Nexlab NM Page Main Text Page