028  
FXUS64 KEPZ 202107  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
207 PM MST MON NOV 20 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND  
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR  
BAJA WILL BE INTENSIFYING AND MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH  
THE WEEK. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR THE  
LOWLANDS THIS WEEK WITH JUST A BRIEF COOL DOWN INTO THE MID TO  
UPPER 60S FOR WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WE WILL KEEP A NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW GOING  
INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER BAJA.  
NOT A CHANCE OF RAIN IS IN SIGHT THROUGH THE NEXT  
TEN DAYS ACCORDING TO ALL MODELS WITH TEMPERATURES  
EVEN RETURNING TO NEAR 80 BY END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL  
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT DURING UPCOMING WEEK. A BACK DOOR FRONT  
IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND COULD BRING  
SOME STRONG WINDS TO WESTERN SLOPES AND WESTERN LOWLANDS.  
 
COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS(60S) EXPECTED WEDNESDAY  
AND THEN TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO 70S FOR END OF THE WEEK.  
NEARLY EVERY DAY UNTIL THE WEEKEND WILL SEE SOME KIND OF  
CIRRUS SHIELD BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE  
EXPECTED TEMPERATURES. OBVIOUSLY, TRAVEL PROBLEMS WILL BE  
LIMITED LEADING UP TO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AND INTO THE  
LONG WEEKEND. BY THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL  
ENTER THE REGION AND POSSIBLY BRING MORE RECORD HIGHS  
DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
VALID 21/00Z-22/00Z.  
P6SM SCT-BKN250 THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY NW AT SPEEDS  
BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH 12Z. WINDS SHIFTING TO N AT SPEEDS OF 10-15  
KTS 18Z THRU 00Z.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF  
THE WEEK AHEAD. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE  
PERIOD WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS BRIEFLY OCCURRING MIDWEEK BEHIND A  
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY. FROM THANKSGIVING THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
READINGS WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 10 AND 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS AN  
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES IN OVERHEAD.  
 
MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS  
TUESDAY BUT MANAGE TO CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY WITH  
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY  
LIGHT, BUT COULD INCREASE SOME FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH  
THE FRONT AND FROM THE EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE VENT RATES  
SHOULD BE FAIR TO GOOD MOST AREAS TUESDAY BUT BACK INTO THE POOR  
RANGE AFTERWARDS WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 46 76 44 67 / 0 0 0 0  
SIERRA BLANCA 45 73 41 65 / 0 0 0 0  
LAS CRUCES 39 75 41 66 / 0 0 0 0  
ALAMOGORDO 37 73 39 62 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOUDCROFT 36 56 29 51 / 0 0 0 0  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 40 74 37 68 / 0 0 0 0  
SILVER CITY 37 72 40 62 / 0 0 0 0  
DEMING 35 77 38 68 / 0 0 0 0  
LORDSBURG 39 77 41 68 / 0 0 0 0  
WEST EL PASO METRO 46 75 44 67 / 0 0 0 0  
DELL CITY 38 75 35 65 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT HANCOCK 43 77 41 69 / 0 0 0 0  
LOMA LINDA 41 71 40 63 / 0 0 0 0  
FABENS 40 77 38 69 / 0 0 0 0  
SANTA TERESA 41 75 42 67 / 0 0 0 0  
WHITE SANDS HQ 40 74 42 65 / 0 0 0 0  
JORNADA RANGE 32 75 30 65 / 0 0 0 0  
HATCH 42 76 39 68 / 0 0 0 0  
COLUMBUS 39 76 41 68 / 0 0 0 0  
OROGRANDE 39 76 42 65 / 0 0 0 0  
MAYHILL 45 63 33 59 / 0 0 0 0  
MESCALERO 41 64 32 58 / 0 0 0 0  
TIMBERON 38 62 33 56 / 0 0 0 0  
WINSTON 30 70 30 65 / 0 0 0 0  
HILLSBORO 39 72 34 67 / 0 0 0 0  
SPACEPORT 37 74 36 66 / 0 0 0 0  
LAKE ROBERTS 29 68 33 67 / 0 0 0 0  
HURLEY 35 74 38 64 / 0 0 0 0  
CLIFF 30 75 35 67 / 0 0 0 0  
MULE CREEK 28 76 41 68 / 0 0 0 0  
FAYWOOD 37 74 39 65 / 0 0 0 0  
ANIMAS 36 78 39 68 / 0 0 0 0  
HACHITA 37 77 38 69 / 0 0 0 0  
ANTELOPE WELLS 40 76 39 69 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOVERDALE 39 75 42 68 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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