093  
FXUS64 KEPZ 252142  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
342 PM MDT WED APR 25 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
CLEARING TONIGHT BUT PATCHY SMOKE FROM A FIRE IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA  
MAY DRIFT OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. A FEW HIGH TERRAIN MOSTLY  
DRY SHOWERS OR A SHORT LIVED STORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON  
BEFORE ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY  
NIGHT, BRINGING STRONGER WIND GUSTS ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE  
FRANKLIN, HUECO, AND ORGAN MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS  
FRONT WON'T INCREASE MOISTURE MUCH BUT AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL  
MOISTURE WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
BY SATURDAY. DRIER AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY  
AND MONDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS BLOWN THROUGH THE REGION AND ALTHOUGH THE  
DEWPOINTS HANG TOUGH IN THE 30S FOR THE MOST PART, LAPS INDICATES  
THE AIR MASS REMAINS RATHER STABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME  
CUMULUS OVER THE GILA HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE  
CLEARING OVER THE TX PORTION OF THE CWA TONIGHT. FIRE OVER SE AZ  
THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE SPREADING SOME SMOKE INTO SW NM SO  
ADDED SOME PATCHY SMOKE TO THE WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.  
 
A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON,  
THEREFORE CAN'T RULE OUT A DRY SHOWER OR BRIEF STORM WITH GUSTY  
WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY  
NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. IT MAY BE A LITTLE DRIER  
OVERALL BUT THE TREND FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IS FOR RETURN FLOW  
TO BECOME ESTABLISHED, AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ALONG WITH MID  
LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY  
NIGHT.  
 
THERE WILL BE DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENING SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY, SHUNTING OUT ANY MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR WETTING  
PRECIPITATION. MONDAY LOOKS BREEZY TO WINDY, BUT MAY BE A BIT  
COOLER THAN SUNDAY DUE TO FALLING HEIGHTS.  
 

 
 
AVIATION...VALID 25/12Z-26/12Z... VFR CONDS THRU PERIOD. BACK  
DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST WITH N TO NE WINDS BEHIND IT, BETWEEN  
10 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS TO 30 KTS WITH STRONGEST WINDS ON THE  
WESTERN SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE  
ARE LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND  
THEY SHOULD CLEAR OUT DURING THE LATE MORNING. AFTER 18Z WINDS  
BECOME MORE S TO SE AND DECREASE TO 5 TO 15 KTS THRU THE REST OF  
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 

 
 
FIRE WEATHER...  
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON HOLD UNTIL EARLY  
NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY MONDAY, AS STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND  
LOWER HUMIDITIES DOMINATE MOST OF SOUTHERN NM AND FAR WEST TX,  
WHERE LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
OTHERWISE THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION OR RECOVERY DAY WITH AN  
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD, BEFORE ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SURGES  
FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE AREA, BRINGING GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST  
WINDS OVERALL. A FEW CLOUD BUILDUPS RESULTING IN A DRY SHOWER OR  
STORM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN  
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE GILA WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH LOW  
HUMIDITIES AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
POTENTIAL FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION INCREASES FRIDAY AND MORESO  
SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS COMBINE WITH INCREASING MID  
LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE  
NUMEROUS AND WIDESPREAD SATURDAY, BUT THERE WILL BE COULD BE SOME  
DRY LIGHTNING FRIDAY.  
 
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY SW  
WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH AT LEAST LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOING DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 54 85 56 72 / 0 0 0 0  
SIERRA BLANCA 51 86 54 70 / 0 0 10 0  
LAS CRUCES 50 82 56 71 / 0 0 0 0  
ALAMOGORDO 52 81 53 73 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOUDCROFT 39 58 36 54 / 0 0 20 20  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 53 82 54 72 / 0 0 0 0  
SILVER CITY 48 78 53 66 / 0 0 10 20  
DEMING 50 84 57 72 / 0 0 0 0  
LORDSBURG 54 85 60 75 / 0 0 0 10  
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 84 56 71 / 0 0 0 0  
DELL CITY 51 87 54 73 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT HANCOCK 53 88 58 72 / 0 0 10 0  
LOMA LINDA 48 80 49 68 / 0 0 0 0  
FABENS 53 87 57 72 / 0 0 0 0  
SANTA TERESA 52 84 56 71 / 0 0 0 0  
WHITE SANDS HQ 51 82 54 73 / 0 0 0 0  
JORNADA RANGE 51 82 56 73 / 0 0 0 0  
HATCH 51 83 57 74 / 0 0 0 0  
COLUMBUS 51 85 59 72 / 0 0 0 0  
OROGRANDE 51 83 53 73 / 0 0 0 0  
MAYHILL 45 70 39 62 / 0 0 20 20  
MESCALERO 44 69 41 62 / 0 0 20 20  
TIMBERON 43 69 41 61 / 0 0 20 20  
WINSTON 48 75 48 67 / 0 0 10 20  
HILLSBORO 50 79 53 69 / 0 0 10 10  
SPACEPORT 52 82 54 73 / 0 0 0 0  
LAKE ROBERTS 45 75 49 65 / 0 0 10 20  
HURLEY 49 80 55 68 / 0 0 10 10  
CLIFF 50 83 56 73 / 0 0 20 10  
MULE CREEK 51 80 55 72 / 0 0 10 10  
FAYWOOD 49 79 54 68 / 0 0 10 10  
ANIMAS 54 85 60 76 / 0 0 0 10  
HACHITA 52 84 58 73 / 0 0 0 10  
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 83 59 73 / 0 0 10 10  
CLOVERDALE 53 80 57 73 / 0 0 10 10  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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