711  
FXUS64 KEPZ 222004  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
104 PM MST MON JAN 22 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DRY BORDERLAND WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE THEME  
FOR YOUR THE WORK WEEK, BUT OUR COOLER WEATHER WILL HANG BACK  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS FROM THE  
FOUR CORNERS. A LARGER PACIFIC SYSTEM EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN  
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK, MAY DEVELOP SOME WEST BREEZES FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
LARGE OCCLUDED UL LOW DOMINATES OUR CONUS WEATHER PATTERN, WITH  
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PAC JET OVER THE NW STATES. CURRENT SATELLITE  
IMAGERY DEPICTS MINOR SHORTWAVE OVER ERN AM/SO CAL, EVIDENCED BY  
HINTS AT DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LEAF IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUD  
FIELD OVER THAT AREA. AREA RAOB REPORTS INDICATE THE DEEP WEST-  
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND OUR RECENT LOW, WHICH SUSTAINS A DRY  
LAYER TO 500MB. AS A CONSEQUENCE, OUR VERY DRY SFC CONDITIONS  
CONTINUE WITH AREA DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE  
DIGITS FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS THE REASON FOR  
THE CHILLY READINGS THIS MORNING, WITH BEAVERHEAD RAWS REACHING  
ZERO F AND THE AWOS AT THE GRANT COUNTY AIRPORT REPORTING A LOW  
OF 10 F.  
 
QUASI-SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN STATES  
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF  
OUR AM SHORTWAVE INTO A MINOR CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER FAR NORTHERN  
MEXICO BY WED. SMALL SCALE OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT ITS  
ATTENDANT MOISTURE ADVECTION CAPABILITIES, THUS HAVE INCLUDED  
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IN THE NEAR TERM TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SMALL DISTURBANCE  
BUT WE WILL SEE HIGHS REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID  
WEEK. THIS IS AS ITS DEVELOPMENT DRAWS SOME ADDITIONAL LL  
CONTINENTAL AIR ACROSS FROM THE NORTHEAST.  
 
AS A CUTOFF FEATURE, LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE BORDERLAND  
THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT, BEFORE TRANSITION TO MORE PROGRESSIVE  
PACIFIC PATTERN FOR THE CONUS LIFTS DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST LATER  
IN THE WEEK.  
 
A LARGER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRAZE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY WEEKS  
END, AND COULD BRING SOME WESTERLY BREEZES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
TRENDS WITH SUCCESSIVE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS, HAVE TRENDED MORE  
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE THE LAST FEW DAYS.  
 
IMPACTS TONIGHT - MORE CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON TAP:  
PROTECT PEOPLE, YOUR PETS, PLANTS AND PIPES! BULK OF CIRRUS SHIELD  
ASKED WITH OUR MINOR SHORTWAVE, SHOULD BE EAST OF MOST AREAS  
WITHIN OR CWFA BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY MORNING. BELOW...A  
VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THUS LOWS WILL END UP  
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT'S READINGS, ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...VALID 23/00Z-24/00Z
 
 
P6SM FEW-SCT120-150 SCT-BKN200-250 THROUGH 12Z THEN DECREASING  
CLOUDS AND SKIES BECOMING SKC-FEW150. WINDS EAST TO NORTHEAST AT  
5-15KTS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
A WARMING TREND WILL BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE BORDERLAND OVER THE  
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING ABOUT 4 TO 7  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR WILL  
ACCOMPANY THIS WARMING TREND WHICH WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES  
MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL  
REMAIN LIGHT HOWEVER WITH JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE  
FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE POOR TO FAIR  
CATEGORIES THIS WEEK WITH SOME PATCHY AREAS WHERE GOOD RATES MAY  
OCCUR.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 26 55 27 57 / 0 0 0 0  
SIERRA BLANCA 27 54 26 56 / 0 0 0 0  
LAS CRUCES 22 54 23 56 / 0 0 0 0  
ALAMOGORDO 20 50 20 54 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOUDCROFT 18 42 16 43 / 0 0 0 0  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 22 53 23 54 / 0 0 0 0  
SILVER CITY 24 53 24 52 / 0 0 0 0  
DEMING 21 54 22 57 / 0 0 0 0  
LORDSBURG 21 54 23 57 / 0 0 0 0  
WEST EL PASO METRO 30 53 30 56 / 0 0 0 0  
DELL CITY 23 54 22 55 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT HANCOCK 26 57 28 59 / 0 0 0 0  
LOMA LINDA 24 50 26 53 / 0 0 0 0  
FABENS 20 55 24 58 / 0 0 0 0  
SANTA TERESA 25 54 25 56 / 0 0 0 0  
WHITE SANDS HQ 23 53 24 55 / 0 0 0 0  
JORNADA RANGE 15 53 18 55 / 0 0 0 0  
HATCH 16 56 20 57 / 0 0 0 0  
COLUMBUS 23 52 24 57 / 0 0 0 0  
OROGRANDE 25 53 24 55 / 0 0 0 0  
MAYHILL 21 47 20 50 / 0 0 0 0  
MESCALERO 18 47 18 48 / 0 0 0 0  
TIMBERON 22 44 20 47 / 0 0 0 0  
WINSTON 12 50 15 50 / 0 0 0 0  
HILLSBORO 20 53 21 54 / 0 0 0 0  
SPACEPORT 18 53 20 55 / 0 0 0 0  
LAKE ROBERTS 11 53 10 53 / 0 0 0 0  
HURLEY 17 53 20 54 / 0 0 0 0  
CLIFF 13 56 15 58 / 0 0 0 0  
MULE CREEK 19 54 17 56 / 0 0 0 0  
FAYWOOD 22 54 23 54 / 0 0 0 0  
ANIMAS 19 54 21 58 / 0 0 0 0  
HACHITA 20 53 21 57 / 0 0 0 0  
ANTELOPE WELLS 21 53 23 57 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOVERDALE 25 51 27 56 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
22-TRIPOLI/26-GRZYWACZ  
 
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