594
FXUS64 KEPZ 210837
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
237 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
SYNOPSIS
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING SEASONABLY WARM AND VERY DRY WEATHER TO
NEARLY ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH
THIS WEEK. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE WILL PRESS WESTWARD INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES NEXT FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION STAYS WARM AND
DRY.
DISCUSSION
SHARP UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT. WITH IT...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS
PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH ON MODERATE WINDS. THESE TWO FEATURES
HAVE NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO NO POPS OR PCPN IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER WE EXPECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AFTERNOON. NORTH/NORTH WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
TURN WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD DROP 4-5 DEGREES FROM
YESTERDAY'S READINGS. CONTINUED DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY
NW/W FLOW OFF THE SURFACE TODAY.
WEDNESDAY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BRINGS A ZONAL WESTERLY PATTERN WITH
VERY DRY AND WARMER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE UP 5-8
DEGREES. SKIES CONTINUED CLEAR.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE WILL SEE
SOME GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE SEEP INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA. ALOFT WE WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WITH WEST COAST TROUGHING ALOFT AND CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGING. AT THE SURFACE...A COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGHING OVER OUR REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A DRY LINE SETUP WHICH WILL ALLOW A NIGHTLY
MIGRATION OF THE DRY LINE/GULF MOISTURE TO CREEP WESTWARD INTO
OTERO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES BEGINNING THURSDAY. THUS FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DAILY HEATING AND CONVERGENCE OVER THOSE
TWO COUNTIES PRODUCING AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY WE EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS OVER THIS REGION WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS VERY DRY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS
SOUTHWEST OVER AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OVER AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER. AFTERNOONS WILL BE MILDLY BREEZY.
AVIATION
VALID 21/12Z-22/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEAK COLD FRONT PRESSED IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT BRINGING A SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING LIGHTER AND
MORE VARIABLE TUE AFTERNOON...FAVORING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
A DEEP UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...HAS TRACKED ACROSS
NORTHERN NM ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 90S FOR THE LOWLANDS BY WEDNESDAY.
LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK INTERESTING WITH ALL LONGER RANGE MODELS
INDICATING SOME WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE DRYLINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE GFS FORECAST MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
ECMWF AND CMC-GEM MODELS KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE
TRANSPECOS AND EASTERN PLAINS. LIKEWISE THE GFS HAS THE HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. THE TRUTH IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN
THE MIDDLE WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE EAST COMING IN ON
SATURDAY...FIGURING ANY CONVECTION EAST OF OUR AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEND SOME OUTFLOW WESTWARD HELPING PUSH THE DRYLINE
FARTHER WEST THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN
PLACE ON FRIDAY...DRIER/ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 88 65 94 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 85 58 91 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 85 57 91 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 85 55 90 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 61 40 68 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 84 58 91 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 82 51 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 86 53 91 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 86 53 91 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 85 64 93 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 86 54 92 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 90 59 96 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 78 54 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 10
FABENS 87 61 94 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 85 59 93 60 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 85 62 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 85 47 91 49 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
HATCH 81 56 88 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 86 59 91 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 88 54 94 57 97 / 0 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 72 48 80 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 73 42 79 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 72 42 78 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 75 48 81 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 81 52 86 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 83 51 90 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 77 45 83 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 80 55 86 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 87 46 92 51 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 83 37 88 42 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 80 53 85 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 86 57 91 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 85 51 90 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 87 59 92 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 82 54 86 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
14/99
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