666  
FXUS64 KEPZ 200943  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
343 AM MDT MON AUG 20 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS  
MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT MORE MOIST AIR MOVING INTO THE  
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ACROSS THE BORDERLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL  
PRODUCE SEASONABLY WARM MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING AROUND  
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE  
LOWER ELEVATIONS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FLOWS  
BACK INTO THE AREA.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO  
AND WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE ARIZONA  
BORDER BY NOON. BEHIND THE FRONT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL  
ADVECT SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT ALSO A MORE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS  
INTO THE REGION. THUS BY LATE AFTERNOON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER  
WILL BE MOSTLY FROM 1 TO 1.2 INCHES WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ABOVE  
50 F SUPPORT MUCAPE'S AROUND 1000 J/KG. SURFACE HEATING AND  
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INITIATE CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND MOUNTAIN AREAS  
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH FURTHER HEATING PLUS OUTFLOWS CAUSING  
SOME STORMS TO SPREAD INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND  
THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER  
HAZARD GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE PLUS THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT  
DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES ALSO SUGGEST  
A POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND STRONGER DOWNBURSTS.  
 
BY TUESDAY MORNING UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL  
NEW MEXICO WITH THIS FEATURE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL  
TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL STABILIZE AIR MASS  
WITH CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH ALSO STEERING DEEPER MOISTURE TO  
THE SOUTH AWAY FROM THE CWA AND INTO ARIZONA. CONSEQUENTLY EXPECT  
SEASONABLY WARM MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LOWER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY WITH STORM COVERAGE MAINLY AROUND THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.  
 
BY THURSDAY COMBINATION OF SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH TO THE EAST OVER  
CENTRAL TEXAS PLUS DESERT HEAT LOW WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL  
GENERATE DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOISTURE  
TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE PRECIPITABLE  
WATER WILL BE FROM 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES MOST AREAS WHILE SURFACE  
DEWPOINTS EXCEED 50. AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSTABLE WITH  
CAPE'S AGAIN AROUND 1000 J/KG. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST POSSIBLE  
EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE FLOW ENTERING THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH.  
OVERALL PATTERN THEREFORE FAVORS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION LATER  
PERIODS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
VALID 20/12-21/12Z.  
A FEW AREAS OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY FROM 20Z-06Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH  
SKIES SCT-BKN060-100. SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10-20KT EXCEPT FOR  
GUSTS UP TO 45KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS  
MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT MORE MOIST AIR MOVING INTO THE  
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ACROSS THE BORDERLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL  
PRODUCE SEASONABLY WARM MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING AROUND  
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE  
LOWER ELEVATIONS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FLOWS  
BACK INTO THE AREA.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 96 75 96 74 / 20 20 0 0  
SIERRA BLANCA 91 68 92 69 / 20 20 0 0  
LAS CRUCES 94 70 94 69 / 10 20 0 0  
ALAMOGORDO 92 68 93 69 / 20 20 10 0  
CLOUDCROFT 68 50 71 53 / 50 30 40 10  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 94 70 93 69 / 10 20 0 0  
SILVER CITY 89 59 87 62 / 20 40 30 10  
DEMING 95 68 94 69 / 0 20 0 0  
LORDSBURG 95 68 95 69 / 0 20 10 0  
WEST EL PASO METRO 94 74 94 73 / 10 20 0 0  
DELL CITY 93 68 97 70 / 10 20 0 0  
FORT HANCOCK 96 72 96 72 / 20 20 0 0  
LOMA LINDA 89 68 91 68 / 20 20 0 0  
FABENS 96 69 95 71 / 10 20 0 0  
SANTA TERESA 95 73 94 73 / 10 20 0 0  
WHITE SANDS HQ 93 69 94 70 / 20 30 0 0  
JORNADA RANGE 94 67 94 69 / 20 30 0 0  
HATCH 96 68 95 69 / 10 20 0 0  
COLUMBUS 96 71 95 71 / 0 20 0 0  
OROGRANDE 92 71 94 71 / 10 20 0 0  
MAYHILL 76 56 80 57 / 40 40 30 10  
MESCALERO 79 56 80 58 / 40 30 40 10  
TIMBERON 78 54 80 58 / 50 30 30 10  
WINSTON 86 55 86 58 / 20 30 20 10  
HILLSBORO 92 65 91 65 / 10 30 10 0  
SPACEPORT 93 67 92 68 / 10 20 0 0  
LAKE ROBERTS 87 52 84 57 / 30 40 30 20  
HURLEY 90 62 88 64 / 10 30 20 10  
CLIFF 94 57 92 64 / 10 30 30 10  
MULE CREEK 94 59 90 65 / 10 30 20 20  
FAYWOOD 90 65 89 65 / 20 40 10 0  
ANIMAS 95 68 96 68 / 0 20 10 10  
HACHITA 96 68 95 68 / 0 20 0 0  
ANTELOPE WELLS 91 65 92 66 / 10 20 0 0  
CLOVERDALE 88 64 91 64 / 30 20 10 10  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
05 ROGASH  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page
The Nexlab NM Page Main Text Page