428  
FXUS64 KEPZ 290923  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
323 AM MDT WED MAR 29 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY  
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG WITH ISOLATED  
SHOWERS ON THE LOWLANDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER  
MOUNTAINS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN WARMER DRY  
WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
WITH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION GENERATING  
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING DUST ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER  
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS SHOWERS SATURDAY  
AND SUNDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE WARMER DRY WEATHER MONDAY  
AND TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WINDS...RAIN AND  
MOUNTAIN SNOW YESTERDAY WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE TEXAS  
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SLIGHTLY  
TO ITS EAST. GRADIENTS FROM THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER  
STRONG ACROSS THE CWA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY  
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.  
IN ADDITION CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT INFLOW OF COOLER CANADIAN  
AIR FROM THE NORTH SO TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FINALLY A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE  
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY PROVIDING  
DYNAMIC LIFT. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT AIR MASS WILL BE WEAKLY  
UNSTABLE DO EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED LOWLAND RAINS AND HIGH  
MOUNTAINS SNOWS WITH A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES ALSO POSSIBLE. GIVEN  
THE LACK OF MOISTURE RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT.  
 
WESTERLY FLOW UNDER PASSING SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING  
WARMER DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS  
SUSTAINING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER AGAIN FRIDAY.  
HOWEVER A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS  
NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH  
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. LOW AND  
MID LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL THEREFORE TIGHTEN WITH MID LEVEL 70 KT  
SPEED MAX EXTENDING INTO THEW CWA. CONSEQUENTLY IT WILL BECOME  
QUITE WINDY FRIDAY WITH BLOWING DUST ALSO LIKELY.  
 
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT  
CAUSING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO AROUND 5  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MOISTURE INFLOW AHEAD OF THE STORM WILL BE  
MARGINAL DUE TO CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES BUT DYNAMIC FORCING PLUS  
COLD AIR ALOFT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LOWLAND RAIN  
SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS THIS WEEKEND.  
 
THE LOW/TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY LATE SUNDAY WITH  
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND IT BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER DRY WEATHER.  
HOWEVER PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCES PLUS PERSISTENT SURFACE  
TROUGHING TO THE EAST MAY GENERATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS  
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
VALID 29/12Z-30/12Z.  
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS BETWEEN 5000 AND 10,000 WITH A FEW AREAS OF  
MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW  
SHOWERS WITH VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS GUSTING  
FROM 30 TO 40 KT THROUGH 18Z WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN THE  
AFTERNOON. SKIES ALSO CLEARING AFTER 06Z.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY  
CONDITIONS AND COOL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG WITH  
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE LOWLANDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE  
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL GUST FROM 30 TO 40 MPH THIS MORNING  
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST TO SOUTHWEST  
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WARMER DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
HOWEVER A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE  
SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION GENERATING WINDY CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING  
DUST ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A  
FEW RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS ON  
FRIDAY MAY GUST AROUND 50 MPH RESULTING IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS  
MOST LOCATIONS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE WARMER DRY WEATHER  
NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 66 45 81 57 / 10 10 0 0  
SIERRA BLANCA 64 42 77 54 / 10 0 0 0  
LAS CRUCES 62 38 78 51 / 10 10 0 0  
ALAMOGORDO 59 39 75 53 / 20 10 0 0  
CLOUDCROFT 36 27 55 40 / 30 10 0 0  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 63 40 79 53 / 10 20 0 0  
SILVER CITY 58 37 72 47 / 20 10 0 0  
DEMING 65 38 80 50 / 10 10 0 0  
LORDSBURG 63 36 79 48 / 0 0 0 0  
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 45 80 59 / 10 10 0 0  
DELL CITY 63 35 80 47 / 10 0 0 0  
FORT HANCOCK 67 43 82 54 / 10 0 0 0  
LOMA LINDA 58 43 73 55 / 10 10 0 0  
FABENS 66 41 81 54 / 10 10 0 0  
SANTA TERESA 64 41 80 54 / 10 10 0 0  
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 45 78 56 / 10 10 0 0  
JORNADA RANGE 62 33 78 47 / 10 10 0 0  
HATCH 62 39 80 49 / 10 20 0 0  
COLUMBUS 67 42 82 55 / 10 10 0 0  
OROGRANDE 61 43 79 54 / 10 10 0 0  
MAYHILL 48 30 68 45 / 30 10 0 0  
MESCALERO 47 30 65 43 / 30 10 0 0  
TIMBERON 46 28 62 41 / 30 10 0 0  
WINSTON 58 26 73 40 / 20 20 0 0  
HILLSBORO 61 36 78 48 / 20 20 0 0  
SPACEPORT 61 37 78 49 / 10 20 0 0  
LAKE ROBERTS 58 22 71 34 / 20 10 0 0  
HURLEY 60 32 74 45 / 10 10 0 0  
CLIFF 65 29 78 41 / 20 0 0 0  
MULE CREEK 62 34 74 45 / 10 0 0 0  
FAYWOOD 61 38 76 49 / 10 10 0 0  
ANIMAS 63 37 82 51 / 0 0 0 0  
HACHITA 64 36 81 49 / 0 0 0 0  
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 39 81 51 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOVERDALE 62 40 76 51 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ419.  
 

 
 

 
 
05 ROGASH  
 
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