565
FXUS64 KLCH 091134
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
534 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
AVIATION
12Z TAF DISCUSSION...MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING
VFR IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS HOUR WITH STRONG
NNW WINDS OF 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS AT ALL AIRPORTS.
LATEST GFS AND NAM SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS REMAINING SIMILAR IN
STRENGTH THROUGH 09/00Z BEFORE DECOUPLING THIS EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS OF 1100-1500 FT BLANKET THE AREA AT THIS HOUR...BUT
CLEARING LINE IS PROGRESSING RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EAST
TEXAS. BASED ON TIMING OF LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...CLEARING LINE
SHOULD REACH KBPT/KLCH/KAEX AROUND 15-16Z AND KLFT/KARA 17-18Z.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MODEL TIME HEIGHT
TRENDS INDICATE WIDESPREAD CIRRUS WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 516 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/
..A DUSTING OF SLEET/SNOW MIX FOR THE LAKES REGION IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA FRIDAY MORNING...
DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT WITH A
SECONDARY CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THIS LATEST COLD FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS
THAT WAS TRYING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. RAINS HAVE ENDED WITH ABOUT
1/2 TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY EVENING INTO THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY...VERY WINDY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND PARISHES
WITH WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR TODAY INTO
TOMORROW AS THE SUN SHOULD PEEK OUT OF THE CLOUDS BEFORE THE NOON
HOUR. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
AS MIXING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS ANY TEMPERATURE RISE IN
PLACE. SO WE ARE LOOKING AT TEMPS ONLY RISING ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES
AT BEST TODAY. CLOUDS WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
COUNTY THURSDAY AS A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OFF OF THE
SOUTH TEXAS COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS
THE GULF. MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THIS LATEST WEATHER MAKER
WITH RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. BUT WHAT IT WILL DO IS TO DRAG COOLER
AIR FROM THE NORTH AND WITH MOISTURE RIDING UP AND OVER THE DOME
OF COLD AIR. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AFTER SUNSET
ON THURSDAY FOR LOCATIONS WELL INLAND. AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WELL INLAND LOCATIONS. RAIN/SLEET
MIXTURE WILL CHANGE OVER TO A SLEET/SNOW MIX. AT THIS TIME THE
SNOW/SLEET LINE LOOKS TO RUN FROM THE HARDIN/TYLER LINE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN BEAUREGARD INTO SOUTHERN ST LANDRY PARISH. WILL
SEE SOME SLEET AT BIT SOUTH OF THIS LINE AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING.
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BUT TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KLCH 50 30 50 35 46 / 10 10 10 20 80
KBPT 48 30 49 36 45 / 10 10 10 20 80
KAEX 46 27 48 31 41 / 10 10 10 20 80
KLFT 50 29 50 33 46 / 10 10 10 20 80
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST.
MARY...VERMILION.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.
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