095
FXUS64 KLCH 211800
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
100 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
DISCUSSION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION
GENERAL THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS IS CARRIED THROUGH THIS
ROUND AS WELL. SFC OBS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CLOUDS APLENTY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE CEILINGS SLOWLY RISE...AND
ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR SHORTLY. LOCAL 88DS SHOW A FEW SPOTTY SMALL
SHOWERS POPPING UP MAINLY INLAND AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET LOW CLOUDS WILL AGAIN
FILL IN WILL CEILINGS GRADUALLY DROPPING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STILL SEEING HINTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT...
THEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONTINUED WITH STRONGEST WORDING AT KAEX..LESS SO OTHER SITES
ESPECIALLY SERN TERMINALS.
25
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 931 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET FOR NOW, HOWEVER
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE THE TEMP AND RH GRIDS FOR TODAY.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER WX ELEMENT WAS TOUCHED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 21/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE
DAY. CLOUD BASES WILL BE LIFTING FROM MVFR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL HELP PUSH THIS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL
PLACE SOME PROB30 GROUPS AT KAEX/KBPT/KLCH AROUND 22/06Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT HOLDS TOGETHER WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH KARA/KLFT UNTIL THE VERY END OR AFTER THE TAF
PERIOD.
RUA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL STALL AND WEAKEN OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY BRINGING
A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD MAKE FOR A WARM AND DRY
HOLDIDAY WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN THE GFS LATER TODAY AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF OUR ZONES. USED THE
EURO BEGINNING TONIGHT. THAT MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH AND IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE ON THE RAIN CHANCES. DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE WAS
NOTED OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...WENT A BIT WARMER ON TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS LOOKING STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING DESPITE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
SWEENEY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KLCH 87 72 86 72 88 / 10 40 50 10 20
KBPT 87 73 87 74 88 / 10 40 50 10 20
KAEX 92 71 87 67 91 / 20 50 50 10 20
KLFT 88 74 87 69 92 / 10 40 50 10 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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