465
FXUS64 KLCH 072222
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
422 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION
AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SE LA AND SRN MS. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE TS
IDA IS NOW BACK OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE CONTINUES TO
RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES PROVIDING LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AGAIN THIS AFTN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
DISCUSSION
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST AS IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH
SUNDAY...GRADUALLY MERGING WITH IDA BY MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CNTRL GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACRS TX SUNDAY...APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO LIFT THE IDA/WEST GULF LOW SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A BPT-AEX LINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH ON THE
BACKSIDE OF IDA.
ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE EASTERLY FETCH OF WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE GULF LOW WILL ALLOW FOR WATER TO PILE UP ALONG THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MORNING LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
MARINE
MODERATE TO STRONG EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST...POTENTIALLY MERGING WITH FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IDA OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
AND SEAS OF UP TO 6 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE. HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF IDA TO THE SOUTHEAST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE AN
EXTENSION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
HYDROLOGY
MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACRS THE AREA. WATER
LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE. WITH MOST OF THE
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SRN LA...NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN WATER LEVELS ON THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE NECHES...SABINE AND
CALCASIEU RIVERS IS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KLCH 58 76 62 72 / 10 40 70 60
KBPT 58 77 64 74 / 10 40 50 50
KAEX 52 77 59 72 / 10 20 50 50
KLFT 57 76 62 71 / 10 40 70 70
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CAMERON-VERMILION.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR JEFFERSON-ORANGE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE...24
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