598  
FXUS64 KLCH 201619  
AFDLCH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
1119 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
A RATHER UNEVENTFUL MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA COMPARED TO THIS TIME  
YESTERDAY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS HAVE SO FAR  
REMAINED WEST OF THE AREA. HIRES GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE BANDS OF  
HEAVIER RAIN TO OUR WEST FOR MOST OF TODAY, SHIFTING EAST INTO FAR  
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS EVENING INTO  
THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE STILL IN  
PLACE, DO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS TO  
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY SE TX INTO SW  
LA... DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH LOW FLASH FLOOD THRESHOLDS, AREAS  
INCLUDED IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS  
AFTERNOON WILL BE QUICK TO SEE SOME FLOODING.  
 
MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THIS MORNING WAS TO REDUCE  
OVERALL POPS AND QPFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS  
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  
 
RACKLEY  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 706 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2018/  
 
AVIATION...  
STORM SYSTEM OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO SPIN THIS AM W/  
STORMS/SHWRS MOVG ONSHORE FM SOUTH TEXAS AROUND TO SOUTH CENTRAL  
LOUISIANA. THIS PATTERN WILL CONT THRU THE DAY TDY. CEILINGS AND  
VSBY WILL BE LWR IN AND NEAR STORM ACTVTY.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
PRECIPITATION BEING OBSERVED ON RADAR THIS MORNING IS NOTICEABLY  
MORE SPARSE IN NATURE THAN IT WAS THIS TIME YESTERDAY. STILL, WITH  
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE (FORECAST PWAT VALUES OF 2.2 TO  
2.3) THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD DRIFTING TROPICAL WAVE THAT  
HAS BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND  
AN EASTWARD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BE  
MORE THAN ENOUGH TO INITIALIZE ANOTHER DAY OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND  
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 00Z THIS  
EVENING FOR JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND ADDED SOUTHERN  
JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES AS WELL AS CALCASIEU AND WESTERN  
CAMERON. BASED THIS ON THE EXPECTED QPF TOTALS THROUGH THE DAY AND  
THE RFC'S FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR 1  
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THESE AREAS, BUT WITH BANDING EXPECTED  
TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER THIS AREA AGAIN TODAY, 3 TO 4 INCHES  
WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. MEANWHILE, TAKING THE  
PREVIOUS RAINFALL INTO CONSIDERATION, THE RFC'S FLASH FLOOD  
GUIDANCE IS PRESENTLY SHOWING 6 HOURLY QPF THRESHOLDS OF BETWEEN  
1 AND 3 INCHES. AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE WATCH PRODUCT, THE  
ADDITION OF CALCASIEU PARISH WAS IN ORDER TO INCLUDE THE WESTERN  
HALF OF THE PARISH, INCLUDING VINTON, WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL  
FELL YESTERDAY. 6 HOURLY QPF THRESHOLDS IN THIS AREA ARE AROUND 2  
INCHES. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE  
PARISH IS MUCH LOWER WITH QPF THRESHOLDS IN THE 4+ INCH RANGE.  
 
BY TONIGHT, THE INFLUENCE OF SYSTEMS OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT  
FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE DRIFTING SOUTH INTO MEXICO TO THE  
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE  
END RESULT WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME WITH THIS TROUGH LIFTING THE  
CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT IT  
APPEARS THAT THE AXIS OF MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT  
FURTHER EAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THE SILVER LINING IS THAT  
AS THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST, IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE MID AND UPPER  
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT BRINGING THE PRECIP TO AN ABRUPT END  
THURSDAY EVENING.  
 
THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN  
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL MAKE FOR A DRY END OF THE WEEK AND  
WEEKEND ALLOWING SOME OF THE HARDEST HIT AREAS TO DRY OUT. A MORE  
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH  
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY BEGINNING MONDAY.  
 
MARINE...  
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THIS MORNING BETWEEN HIGH  
PRESSURE EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND ADJACENT GULF  
WATERS, AND LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY  
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE NORTHWEST GULF PRESSURE GRADIENT  
CONTINUES TO RELAX WITH A WEAKENING OF THE EAST TEXAS TROF.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND  
TOMORROW BEFORE COMING TO AN END FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AEX 87 73 86 73 / 50 60 80 20  
LCH 86 77 86 76 / 50 60 60 20  
LFT 88 76 87 75 / 40 30 50 20  
BPT 84 76 86 76 / 50 70 50 20  
 

 
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ041-073.  
 
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ215-216-261-  
262.  
 
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR  
GMZ470-472.  
 
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
GMZ450-452.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...14  
 
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