133  
FXUS64 KLCH 210006  
AFDLCH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
606 PM CST SAT JAN 20 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
CURRENTLY TRACKING A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY INTERIOR SERN  
TX WITH A FEW SHOWERS OUT AHEAD ACROSS W-CNTL LA...HAVE ELECTED TO  
CARRY VCSH INITIALLY AT KBPT/KAEX TO ACCOUNT FOR THEIR PRESENCE.  
HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END  
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH KAEX SEEING MORE OF A CHANCE OF  
BEING IMPACTED. LATER TONIGHT, THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN LOOKS TO  
BE LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPS BELOW  
NOCTURNAL INVERSION...BEST EXTREME VISIBILITIES ARE PROGGED BY  
SREF/HRRR GUIDANCE AT KBPT AROUND SUNRISE. CEILINGS/VSBYS IMPROVE  
TOMORROW MORNING POST-SUNRISE WITH ELEVATED SRLY WINDS DEVELOPING  
BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON  
MAINLY ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA.  
 
25  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 215 PM CST SAT JAN 20 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...ALOFT, ONE SHORT WAVE IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE  
LOCAL AREA WHILE A STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO THE 4  
CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE IS DEPARTING THE EAST COAST  
AND LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.  
 
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WARM-UP IS IN FULL SWING AS THE FLOW BETWEEN  
THE SURFACE RIDGE AND PLAINS LOW PULLS GULF MOISTURE NORTH.  
HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE  
PASSING THE AREA A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED SINCE EARLY  
MORNING.  
 
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT,  
HOWEVER SURFACE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE.  
 
INTO SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT MORE AS  
THE SOUTH FLOW CONTINUES. LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL MOVE  
TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED  
DISTURBANCE IN THE 4 CORNERS REGION. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND  
LOW EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE LOCAL  
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AS  
THE BOUNDARY PASSES. INSTABILITY LOOKS A BIT LACKING AT THE  
CURRENT TIME, HOWEVER ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE,  
ESPECIALLY WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST.  
 
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AND MILD WITH TEMPERATURES  
NEAR NORMAL CLIMO VALUES.  
 
MARINE...A WARM MOISTURE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY  
MONDAY MORNING. SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE  
DEWPOINTS RISE WELL OVER THE SHELF WATER TEMPS. SEA FOG WILL  
LINGER UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES EARLY MONDAY. A MODERATE OFFSHORE  
FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AEX 55 71 55 64 / 20 30 90 40  
LCH 57 72 58 67 / 20 30 80 40  
LFT 56 73 60 70 / 10 20 60 70  
BPT 59 72 56 66 / 20 30 80 30  
 

 
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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