366  
FXUS64 KLUB 270507  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
1207 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016  
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ANY SHOWER OR  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT REMAINING EAST OF THE TERMINALS.  
WINDS EASE OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY OUR OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST WITH  
SOME HIGH CLOUDS PRESENT. BREEZY WEST OR SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP  
LATE FRIDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 319 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
AS OF 2 PM THE DRYLINE HAD MADE IT AS FAR EAST AS A TURKEY TO POST  
LINE. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE IMPETUS EASTWARD, BUT DO  
NOT EXPECT A SHIFT MORE THAN ABOUT 15 TO 30 MILES FURTHER. EAST OF  
THE DRYLINE SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S  
TO MIDDLE 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CUMULUS HAVING FORMED  
BUT NOTHING VIGOROUS YET. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH THAT IS MOVING TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SEEMS TO BE  
SQUASHING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE CUMULUS. THAT COULD COME TO AN  
END DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND THUS THERE REMAINS A CHANCE  
THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY YET DEVELOP ACROSS THE  
ROLLING PLAINS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS STILL APPEARS TO BE FROM  
CONVECTION THAT HAS INITIATED IN THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY AND PERMIAN  
BASIN SOUTH OF MIDLAND THAT WILL MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE  
EVENING. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME OF THOSE STORMS WILL CLIP  
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WILL THUS MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST CHANCES  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT TO SLIGHT  
CHANCE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK  
MAINTAINING NO PRECIP MENTION.  
 
THE UPPER LOW THAT IS IN LARGE PART RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY'S STORMS  
WILL MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND KANSAS TONIGHT AND  
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE DRYLINE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WITH DRY, WARM, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED.  
 
LONG TERM...  
THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF WARM BUT RATHER NICE AS THE UPPER LOW  
PASSES OFF TO OUR EAST. WINDS WILL BE CALM FOR WEST TEXAS STANDARDS  
(10 MPH OR LESS) AND HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.  
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN  
APPROACHING UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL CA. SOME  
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE UNDERWAY, THOUGH EXACTLY HOW STRONG IT WILL  
BE IS YET TO BE DETERMINED. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST  
AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE RETURN THAN THE GFS. THE NAM IS MORE IN THE  
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO MODELS. DESPITE THEIR  
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING, THEY ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH  
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS  
AND NAM BRING SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA BY EARLY TO MID  
AFTERNOON AS A FEW DISTURBANCES MAKE THEIR WAY AROUND THE UPPER  
RIDGE. SBCAPE IS PROGGED AROUND 2900-4900 J/KG WITH THE NAM BEING ON  
THE VERY HIGH SIDE OF THAT RANGE. PART OF THE REASON THE NAM SHOWS  
HIGH AMOUNTS OF CAPE IS IT SHOWS MUCH MORE COOLING ALOFT THUS HIGHER  
LAPSE RATES. GIVEN WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER  
RIDGE, THE NAM APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING INSTABILITY. SHEAR WILL BE  
RATHER WEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 20 KNOTS BEING THE AVERAGE  
THOUGH IT DOES INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY  
MORNING. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT  
ORGANIZED WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED ATM. STORM  
MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND WILL ALLOW FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.  
 
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO MID WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW  
SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE FA. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW ON LATE  
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY COULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION  
WHICH WOULD ENHANCE PRECIP COVERAGE AND CHANCES. THE ECMWF CONTINUES  
TO BE THE EARLY BIRD WITH THE FROPA OCCURRING BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE  
GFS UP UNTIL THE 06Z RUN HAS NOT EMBRACED THE IDEA OF A FROPA. THE  
12Z RUN SHOWS A STRONGER FROPA THAN THE 06Z RUN BUT DOES NOT HAVE IT  
PASS THROUGH UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FORECAST WILL BE  
A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD MIX GIVEN THE FRONT, IF IT OCCURS, IS ROUGHLY A  
WEEK AWAY. HIGH TEMPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME ARE TRICKY AS WELL WITH  
GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS ANYWHERE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S TO THE LOW  
70S.  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
55  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page