971
FXUS64 KLUB 072136
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
336 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
SHORT TERM
ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS DEGREE OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AS A NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LLJ RAMPS UP
ONCE AGAIN. RECENT REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THE LEADING EDGE OF
50+F DEWPOINTS HAS ALREADY NUDGED INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WITHIN
A BACKING LL FLOW. WEAK PRESSURE FALLS MEANWHILE AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LOW WEST OF THE BIG BEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AREA WIDE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE DRIEST AIR
PERSISTING ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES. SLOW REMOVAL OF THIS DRY AIR
ON THE CAPROCK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT RAPID COOLING LATE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL FURTHER ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS PATCHY LIGHT FOG BY SUN MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED THIS MORNING FROM ABI SOUTHWEST TO SJT. OTHERWISE THE ONLY
OTHER EFFECT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS AS THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS INTO AN OPEN WAVE ON
SUNDAY AND TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. IMPROVED LL MOISTURE ON
SUNDAY AND REDUCED THIKNESSES SHOULD HINDER THE DEEP MIXING
OBSERVED TODAY AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A ROUND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
MAX TEMPS.
LONG TERM
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS CENTERED ON THE IMPACTS OF AN
EARLY WEEK FROPA.
NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BUCKLE/AMPLIFY MONDAY TOWARD A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST PATTERN. THIS WILL AID
THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH FROM THE GREAT BASIN
OVER THE DIVIDE AND THROUGH THE PLAINS. FROPA IS EXPECTED LOCALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY...AND MODEL SIGNALS FOR STRATUS
REMAIN IN BOTH THE PRE AND POST FRONTAL AIRMASSES. SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO DPICT LIGHT QPF ALONG AND IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER SIGNALS FOR NOTABLE FORCING/ASCENT ARE LACKING UNDER
BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE MENTIONED UA RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES
EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY TUESDAY. THUS REMAIN
RELUCTANT TO INCREASE POPS ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE /20 PERCENT/...BUT
WILL INTRODUCE A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH FROPA AS WEAK INSTABILITY
IS PROGGED...AND WILL WEIGHT WEATHER GRIDS TOWARD FOG/DRIZZLE GIVEN
SATURATED LOW LEVEL PROFILES AND WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TOWARD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF AN EVOLVING BROAD WESTERN U.S. TROUGH MID/LATE
WEEK. THIS WILL PROMOTE LEE TROUGHING/MODERATION. SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO DIFFER IN HANDLING THE EVENTUAL EJECTION OF THIS TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES/PLAINS LATE WEEK...BUT HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A NORTHERN
TRACK. THUS HAVE DELAYED THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF RAIN/COOL TEMPS
UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED FROPA SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
AN ATTEMPTED AG BURN IN NORTHERN BAILEY COUNTY ESCAPED THIS
ATERNOON AND GREW INTO A LARGE GRASS FIRE. ALTHOUGH LOCAL RFW
CRITERIA ARE NOT THREATENED...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ACTUALLY
MODERATELY SUPPORTIVE OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHWEST
ZONES PER A LOCAL STUDY...MAINLY DUE TO ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS...
VERY DRY AIR /RH NR 10 PERCENT/...AND MODEST BREEZES. THUS HAVE
ADDRESSED THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HAZARD PRODUCT
GIVEN POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL ATTEMPTS OF SEASONAL AG BURNS IN
THAT AREA. TEMPS/RH WILL IMPROVE NOTABLY BY SUNSET...BUT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FRIONA 42 75 42 63 40 / 0 10 10 20 20
TULIA 45 76 44 68 43 / 0 10 10 20 20
PLAINVIEW 46 76 45 70 43 / 0 10 10 20 20
LEVELLAND 46 76 46 71 45 / 0 10 10 20 20
LUBBOCK 49 75 49 72 45 / 0 10 10 20 20
DENVER CITY 45 76 47 72 44 / 0 10 10 10 20
BROWNFIELD 46 75 47 72 45 / 0 10 10 20 20
CHILDRESS 51 76 49 72 45 / 0 10 10 20 20
SPUR 51 76 49 73 46 / 0 10 10 20 20
ASPERMONT 53 77 52 73 47 / 0 10 10 20 20
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
93/20
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