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FXUS64 KLUB 072009
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
309 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2008
SHORT TERM
SATELLITE PICTURES TODAY CONFIRM AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BIG BEND AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS
SHOW THIS AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN PRODUCING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME OF IT REACHING
THE GROUND. ALSO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD BROKEN OUT OVER PARTS
OF NEW MEXICO AND THE WEST TEXAS MOUNTAINS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES WITH LI'S DOWN TO -6 OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND -4 OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...HAVE SPREAD THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT A LITTLE EASTWARD INTO THE LUBBOCK
AREA.
ELSEWHERE AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA TONIGHT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO HELP SURGE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL INCREASE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS THEN CONTINUE RECENT TRENDS DEVELOPING MOIST MID-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING IN SOME FASHION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE POPS ARE
FAIRLY ROBUST THROUGH THAT PERIOD. AM HESITANT TO BITE ON THESE
HIGHER POPS TOO MUCH GIVEN THAT THAT PATTERN IN A POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT RARELY GIVES MUCH IF ANY PRECIPIATION ACROSS THE AREA
AND SEEMS TO BE OFTEN OVERDONE BY THE MODELS. STILL 20 TO 30 PCT
POPS APPEAR JUSTIFIED ATTM. SHOULD IT PAN OUT INCREASED CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN TUESDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
WEDNESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE WITH A WET PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OVER SRN CA/NV
AND DEEP MOIST SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. MEX POPS ARE
VERY ROBUST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND AM DEFINITELY NOT READY
TO BUMP POPS THAT HIGH...BUT AGAIN A MENTION OF 20 TO 30 PCT POPS
IS JUSTIFIED ATTM.
NEXT WEEKEND HOLDS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY...PARTICULARLY IN RELATION
TO IKE. NO ADJUSTMENTS TO A FCST THAT HOLDS SLIGHT CHC POPS.
TEMPS COULD BE TRICKY THIS WEEK AS THE PROGGED AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FCST...MAINLY FOR DAYS
WHERE POPS WERE INCREASED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FRIONA 57 84 55 78 59 / 20 30 20 20 10
TULIA 59 83 56 80 58 / 10 30 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 61 84 57 80 59 / 10 30 20 20 10
LEVELLAND 61 89 57 77 60 / 20 30 30 30 20
LUBBOCK 63 88 58 79 63 / 20 30 30 20 20
DENVER CITY 61 91 57 76 60 / 30 30 30 30 20
BROWNFIELD 63 90 58 77 62 / 20 30 30 30 20
CHILDRESS 63 90 61 81 62 / 10 30 20 10 10
SPUR 66 91 61 76 63 / 10 30 30 20 20
ASPERMONT 66 92 65 76 66 / 0 30 30 20 20
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
04/07
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