697  
FXUS64 KLUB 192340  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
640 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015  
   
AVIATION
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL NOSE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE  
AREA THIS EVENING...AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SHORTLY  
BEFORE DUSK. HEALTHY CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS ROLLING PLAINS  
INCLUDING KCDS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A WEAK  
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT WILL  
BE MET WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS. UNLIKELY TO SEE MORE THAN JUST SHREDS OF MID LEVEL  
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH WILL START TO DEEPEN MONDAY  
AFTERNOON ALLOWING GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST  
COMPONENTS. RMCQUEEN  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 314 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
WINDS HAVE BEEN ON A SLOW DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A RATHER  
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A SLUG OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FT AGL  
ADVECTED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL LATE THIS MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BOTH THE  
WINDS AND THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET...WITH  
THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT LATER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER WEST TEXAS. THE NAM DOES INDICATE SOME  
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND ITS TOUGH TO  
EVALUATE HOW MUCH THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT OVERNIGHT  
LOWS. SHOULD REALIZE EXCELLENT COOLING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND  
THINK THE TRADITIONAL COOL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST  
PANHANDLE WILL APPROACH OR SURPASS THE FREEZING MARK ONCE AGAIN.  
THESE LOCATIONS WERE BELOW FREEZING A COUPLE OF NIGHTS AGO AND  
SINCE WE ARE RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE FOR THIS  
AREA...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS. FAVORED COOLER  
SIDE OF GUIDANCE ELSEWHERE.  
 
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO SWING  
BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING SPEEDS DURING THE  
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPROCK. BLENDED MOS/MODEL HIGHS  
AROUND 70 AREA WIDE SHOULD DO THE TRICK. JW  
 
LONG TERM...  
STILL SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEEK IN TERMS OF  
GENERALLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OVERALL  
PATTERN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS REMAINS ONE OF THAT IS SLOWLY  
PROGRESSIVE. NW FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WEEK  
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY AND FAST SW FLOW LATE WEEK AS A  
CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM BAJA PAST THE 4-CORNERS TO THE CNTL HIGH  
PLAINS.  
 
FIRST SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR  
SRN PANHANDLE AS MAY SEE CONVECTION FORM ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF  
NRN NM AND SRN COLO WITH POTENTIAL TO MOVE INTO OR THROUGH THE  
PANHANDLE. EACH RUN HAS LOOKED LESS LIKELY WITH THIS SCENARIO...  
AND THE 12Z RUN IS NO DIFFERENT. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE BUT  
PULL THEM A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH ONCE AGAIN.  
 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE CHANCE FOR DRYLINE CONVECTION  
DURING THE AFTERNOONS...BUT WEAKLY-FORCED NATURE AND POTENTIAL FOR  
THE CAP HOLDING LEAD TO KEEPING 20-30 PCT POPS. CHANCES EXIST  
AREA-WIDE TUESDAY BUT THEN SHIFT EWD WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE  
COMES CLOSER. BEST CHANCE DURING THE WEEK MAY BE THURSDAY AS THE  
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT FROM BAJA...ALTHOUGH CAP STRENGTH THE  
BIGGEST POTENTIAL NEGATIVE ATTM. MAY HAVE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY THAT COULD BOTH FOCUS CONVECTION  
AND POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT  
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY EAST IN PROXIMITY TO THE LOW  
LEVEL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY TO SCOURED  
EWD FRIDAY...AND CERTAINLY SATURDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL HANG ONTO PRECIP MENTION NERN THIRD FRIDAY  
AFTN AND KEEP FCST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPS THROUGH  
THE PERIOD NEAR CLIMO...A BLEND OF MOS AND MODEL PROGS...CONTINUE  
TO LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
FRIONA 29 69 42 77 / 0 0 20 20  
TULIA 33 67 44 76 / 0 0 20 20  
PLAINVIEW 35 68 46 77 / 0 0 20 20  
LEVELLAND 38 69 47 79 / 0 0 10 20  
LUBBOCK 39 70 48 79 / 0 0 10 20  
DENVER CITY 41 71 46 81 / 0 0 0 20  
BROWNFIELD 41 70 48 81 / 0 0 0 20  
CHILDRESS 42 68 48 75 / 0 0 20 30  
SPUR 41 68 49 76 / 0 0 0 30  
ASPERMONT 42 69 51 77 / 0 0 0 20  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
99/99/05  
 
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