137
FXUS64 KLUB 220511
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1211 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1211 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL COOLDOWN INTO THE WEEKEND.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH A DEEP
UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST, RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS, AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE UPPER RIDGE
FEATURES 500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 591 DAM, WHICH IS QUITE ANOMALOUS
(NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY). WITH THAT IN MIND, IT'S
NO SURPRISE THAT TEMPS ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS WEST TX.
OBSERVED HIGHS ON WED VARIED BETWEEN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
WHILE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 70S. THE
NBM FORECAST FOR WED WAS TOO COOL, AND WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED TOMORROW THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE NBM. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT AS THE UPPER LOWS GRADUALLY
EASTWARD MOVEMENT ON THURS WILL INCREASE HIGH CIRRUS CLOUD
COVERAGE, WHICH MAY SUBDUE THE TEMPERATURE OVERPERFORMANCE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS, WITH THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SW CONUS MOVING SLOWER THAN A LOW IN THE POLAR
JET STREAM OVER CANADA. PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO A FEW BREEZY DAYS LOCALLY, WITH SOUTHERLY
GUSTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 25-35 MPH EACH DAY FRI-SUN.
THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES, NOW KEEPING PRECIP
CHANCES WEST OF I-27 ON SATURDAY-SATURDAY EVENING, EVENTUALLY
SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUN. PRECIP CHANCES THEN PERSIST
AREA-WIDE SUN-TUES. ONCE AGAIN, PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES
ARE SET TO BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH, AROUND 1.25" WHICH IS ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE. THIS KIND OF MOISTURE CONTENT CAN SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. FOR NOW, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2" OF RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE (40-50%), WITH A 20-40%
CHANCE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CAPROCK AND JUST A LOW CHANCE (LESS
THAN 20%) OFF THE CAPROCK. IN TERMS OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL,
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIKE A LIMITING FACTOR AS MEAGER LAPSE RATES
MAKE IT STRUGGLE TO ACHIEVE MORE THAN 500 J/KG OF CAPE. STILL, THE
HIGH PWAT VALUES COULD SUPPORT SPORADIC DOWNBURSTS, AND ROUGHLY
40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THE KINEMATICS WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE SHOULD THE INSTABILITY PROGS IMPROVE. THUS, WE CAN'T
COMPLETELY WRITE OFF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL JUST YET, EVEN IF IT
APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS GRADUALLY TREND COOLER AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE AREA,
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FORECAST AREA-WIDE SUN-TUES (LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S). THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO HELP KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM DROPPING TOO COLD, GENERALLY IN THE 50S OR
UPPER 40S, SO FROST/FREEZE IS NOT A CONCERN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...01
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