558
FXUS64 KLUB 042033
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
333 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
SHORT TERM
ADDED MENTION OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON IN SUPPORT OF WW548 VALID
UNTIL 01Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED. WOULD EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH. THAT
SAID...WITH THE JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE...WOULD NOT RULE OUT
CONVECTION ANYWHERE WITHIN THE CWA. WITH THE EXTRA MOISTURE IN
PLACE...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO TONIGHT AND
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE HIGHS TOMORROW. STORM CHANCES LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW. 26
LONG TERM
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FCST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE 12Z GFS DEPICTION OF
AN MCS MOVING ACROSS THE FA MONDAY MORNING LOOKS SUSPICIOUS...PREFER
THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OFFERED BY ECMWF/NAM SHOWING MOST ACTIVITY
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF LOW
PRECIP CHCS SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY MORNING. THEN...WE EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSTM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE NM/PANHANDLES MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CWA IN THE
EVENING/NIGHT...FAVORING THE NW ZONES. THIS PATTERN COULD BE
REPEATED ON TUE/TUE NIGHT HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS THE RIDGING
BUILDING A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND THUS WE HAVE
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE AND HAVE NUDGED POPS LOWER. UPPER RIDGE THEN
STRENGTHENS RIGHT OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS MIDWEEK AND SHOULD
SHUTDOWN PRECIP CHANCES AND CAUSE TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL...UPPER 90S TO ABOUT 105 SHOULD BE PRETTY COMMON WED-THU.
ECMWF SUGGESTS THE RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT BACK TO THE
WEST NEXT WEEKEND WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL COOLING TREND
FRI/SAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FRIONA 66 85 63 91 65 / 50 40 30 20 30
TULIA 67 84 65 90 65 / 60 40 20 20 30
PLAINVIEW 68 84 65 90 66 / 60 40 20 20 30
LEVELLAND 69 87 67 90 67 / 60 30 20 10 30
LUBBOCK 70 86 67 90 68 / 60 40 20 10 20
DENVER CITY 70 88 68 91 67 / 50 30 20 20 20
BROWNFIELD 71 87 68 90 68 / 50 30 20 20 20
CHILDRESS 71 88 69 90 69 / 60 40 20 10 20
SPUR 72 87 68 91 70 / 60 40 20 10 20
ASPERMONT 73 90 70 91 71 / 50 40 20 20 20
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
26/33
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