367  
FXUS64 KLUB 230917  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
417 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FILLING IN ACROSS THE FAR  
SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE  
SPREADING EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AFTER DAYBREAK. THE MAIN  
DRIVER OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO  
WESTERN NEW MEXICO IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER VORTICITY MAXIMUM  
DOWNSTREAM OF ITS PARENT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL  
ARIZONA. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH FROM  
THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS  
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING STREAMING IN 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ON MOIST  
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW COURTESY OF A 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. NOT  
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY SEVERE CONVECTION THIS MORNING GIVEN  
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SUGGESTING A STOUT SURFACE-BASED INVERSION IN  
PLACE.  
 
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG ELEVATED CORES GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-  
50 KNOTS...BUT THE BRUNT OF ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED ON  
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DIURNAL HEATING  
AND COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE  
PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE ENOUGH DRY AIR PUNCH IN FROM THE  
WEST TO ALLOW FOR A FEW DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS AS A SURFACE LOW IN THE  
FRONT RANGE NUDGES EASTWARD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.  
 
WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR IN ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION  
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN IN REGARD  
TO WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR  
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.  
FOLLOWING THIS MORNING/S SWATH OF STORMS...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OR  
TWO LOOK PRIMED TO MOVE THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS LATER ON TODAY AS  
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. WHILE TRAINING CELLS  
THIS MORNING ARE NOT A HUGE CONCERN GIVEN STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS  
OF THE LEAD UPPER VORTICITY MAXIMUM...MAY SEE THIS THREAT INCREASE  
AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF LIFT SPARK SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PROPAGATING  
STORMS. IF THIS MORNING/S ROUND OF STORMS PLAYS OUT AS  
EXPECTED...WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO TRIM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR  
MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE SHORTLY AFTER  
DAYBREAK.  
 
WHILE ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST BY THIS EVENING AND  
TONIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF CHIHUAHUA WILL  
ENCROACH UPON WEST TEXAS IN COMBINATION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE  
REGION OF A 100+ KNOT UPPER JET MAX. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS DO SHOW A  
WEAKNESS NEAR H70-50...SO WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS AFFECTS CELL  
ORGANIZATION. MUCH OF THE REGION WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT  
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH OF A RECOVERY PERIOD...AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN  
THE MID 70S...TO PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED  
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
BASIC PREMISE OF FORECAST THINKING IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS QUITE  
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/S EXPECTATIONS. THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST  
SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO SRN WY/NRN CO BY SUNDAY MORNING. A COUPLE  
OF LOBES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE ABOUT THIS LOW THE FIRST OF WHICH  
WILL BE ORIENTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES TO NEAR THE  
SACRAMENTOS. THE SECOND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL EXIST  
FROM THE PARENT LOW TO SRN CALIFORNIA. AS SUCH...WE WILL SEE  
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND ON  
MONDAY MORNING AFTER WHICH FLOW ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL.  
EMBEDEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL PERSIST ON TUESDAY  
BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS IN FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS  
CORE OF NEXT DISTURBANCE TAKES AIM ON WRN KS.  
 
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING  
BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH THE ECM/NAM SUGGEST THAT  
IT WILL BE FURTHER EAST THAN DOES THE GFS. THIS IS QUITE LIKELY  
DUE TO THE GFS KNOWN BIAS TOWARD OVER-ZEALOUS MOIST ADVECTION WITH  
AN APPROACHING TROUGH. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE DRYLINE MAKING AN  
EASTWARD PUSH ON SUNDAY WITH VARYING DEGREES RANGING FROM THE  
CENTRAL ZONES TO EAST OF OUR CWFA. GIVEN THE MOIST SOILS AM MUCH  
MORE INCLINED TO BELIEVE THAT THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF  
OUR EASTERN BORDER. DEPENDING ON HOW WASHED-OUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS  
FROM SUNDAY MORNING/S CONVECTION WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG ACTIVITY  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE. THERE ARE SOME INCONSISTENCIES  
EVIDENT IN NWP PRECIPITATION FIELDS INTO MONDAY WITH CONVECTION  
OCCURRING IN THE SUBSIDENT PORTION OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...SOME  
TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN OUR  
EASTERN ZONES. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE  
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALL IN ALL A  
CHANGABLE/WET FORECAST WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL  
SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWFA EACH DAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
FRIONA 76 50 76 48 / 50 20 10 10  
TULIA 73 54 76 50 / 70 30 20 10  
PLAINVIEW 73 56 77 51 / 60 40 20 10  
LEVELLAND 77 56 79 52 / 60 40 20 10  
LUBBOCK 75 58 80 54 / 70 40 20 10  
DENVER CITY 79 56 79 53 / 50 40 10 10  
BROWNFIELD 76 57 79 53 / 60 40 10 10  
CHILDRESS 74 60 79 57 / 80 50 40 10  
SPUR 75 58 80 55 / 80 50 30 10  
ASPERMONT 76 62 83 59 / 90 60 40 10  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ023>026-  
028>044.  
 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ021>044.  
 

 
 

 
 
31/26  
 
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