440  
FXUS64 KLUB 111141  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
541 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2016  
   
AVIATION
 
 
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE BY  
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS WINDS TO THE  
NORTHEAST.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 421 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2016/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
LOW STRATUS OFF THE CAPROCK EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MAKE A QUICK  
EXIT TO THE EAST AS STRONGER WESTERLIES CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS  
THE REGION. HOWEVER, EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE  
IN COVERAGE OVER THE REGION. THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DAMPEN  
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SOME SURFACE HEATING. A  
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE UP FOR A LACK OF DEEP MIXING  
LEADING TO STRONG WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TODAY. ALSO, DESPITE THE  
CLOUD COVER LIMITING FULL SUN, VERY STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL  
HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AHEAD OF A COLD  
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BACK DOOR INTO THE  
REGION BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON THEN PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT  
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 
LONG TERM...  
SLIGHTLY CYCLONICALLY CURVED YET STILL NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL  
DOMINATE THIS WEEK WITH A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER  
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A POLAR LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DIP  
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND HUDSON BAY SENDING VERY COLD AIR  
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. A VERY MODIFIED PUSH OF THIS COLD AIR  
IS FORECAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
A WEAKER FRONT ALSO WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TUESDAY, MAINLY IMPACTING  
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES, BUT WILL FEATURE RECYCLED MORE THAN  
FRESH CANADIAN POLAR AIR.  
 
ALL-IN-ALL, A MILD AND DRY PATTERN WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THAT  
STRONGER FRONT WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE INCREASED WINDS ON THE CAPROCK  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS, AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED NOTABLE  
WEST (WARMER) TO EAST (COOLER) THERMAL GRADIENTS EVERY DAY.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR  
CONSIDERABLE STRATUS, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT SMALLER, BRIEFER  
PATCHES MOST NIGHTS.  
 
ON THE HORIZON, PACIFIC WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO CARVE OUT AN  
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY LATE THIS WEEK LASTING  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY HAS TRENDED WINDIER AND WARMER  
FOLLOWING THE MID-WEEK COLD FRONT. LATEST TRENDS INDICATE WAVE  
ACTIVITY CROSSING THE ROCKIES SATURDAY MORE OPEN AND NORTH THAN  
PREVIOUSLY, SO WE HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON LOW SNOW CHANCE  
COVERAGE SATURDAY. SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED MORE, HOWEVER, TOWARDS  
SOME KIND OF LOW LATITUDE WAVINESS APPROACHING FROM MEXICO AND THE  
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK, STILL BEYOND THIS FORECAST.  
RMCQUEEN  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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