081  
FXUS64 KLUB 271718  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
1218 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  
HOWEVER, TOWARD SUNRISE, LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD  
THE REGION WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED. THE LOW LEVEL JET  
IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND PROVIDE FOR THE RISK OF  
LLWS. SOME -RA MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRATUS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY  
MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KLBB/KPVW MAINLY AFTER 12Z.  
 

 
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT MON MAR 27 2017/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
ANOTHER RELATIVELY DOWN DAY IN TERMS OF WEATHER WILL OCCUR TODAY  
BEFORE THINGS PICK UP AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD  
TODAY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, RIDGING WILL  
ONLY DELIVER A GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION BUT WITH COOLER  
TEMPERATURES DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO  
BACK TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE ON THE WEST COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
RETURN WILL BEGIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. MOIST  
ISENTROPIC ASCENT THURSDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO LOW STRATUS DURING  
THE MORNING HOURS WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OFF THE CAPROCK.  
 
LONG TERM...  
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES  
TUESDAY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK AND THUS MORE VEERED FLOW  
ACROSS OUR AREA. MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY  
TUESDAY, PERHAPS EVEN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDER, WILL DRY  
SIGNIFICANTLY MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE  
BACKED OFF FURTHER ON THUNDER MENTION AREAS ON THE CAPROCK.  
 
UPPER LOW WILL SLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY EVEN BRIEFLY STALL AND  
WOBBLE OVER THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY BEFORE KICKING TO THE EAST  
EARLY THURSDAY. THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL PUNCH EAST TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND CAN'T RULE OUT SEVERE THREAT AS IT DOES. AND THE  
DRYLINE MAY YET RETREAT BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING AS  
HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE  
WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE STILL SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG OR  
SEVERE TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH AGAIN FAVORING OUR EASTERN ZONES.  
WEDNESDAY REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR WITH TIMING OF A FRONT ARRIVING  
FROM THE NORTH AND PERHAPS RETURN OF LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ALL-  
IN-ALL, OUR AREA IS FACING CONSIDERABLY LESS PROSPECTS FOR  
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM, AND MUCH OF THE AREA MAY GET  
LITTLE OR NONE.  
 
FOLLOWING HEIGHT RISES THURSDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE PASSAGE  
THURSDAY NIGHT, HEIGHTS AGAIN WILL FALL WITH THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE  
LOW PRESSURE PERHAPS TAKING A SIMILAR PATH AS THE FIRST SYSTEM. WE  
ARE GIVING LEAN AT THIS TIME TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS FURTHER NORTH  
AND QUICKER. THIS SUPPORTS ONLY LOW THUNDER MENTION OVER THE  
WEEKEND AT THIS POINT. RMCQUEEN  
 
FIRE WEATHER...  
VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOW ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR  
MANY AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING NEAR  
CLOVIS WILL HELP RAMP WIND SPEEDS UP, AND DEEP MIXING WITHIN THE  
DRY SECTOR GIVES CHANCES FOR SPEEDS INCREASING INTO RED FLAG  
CRITERIA RANGE FAVORING THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. A FIRE  
WEATHER WATCH IS BEING ISSUED CENTERED OVER THIS AREA. RMCQUEEN  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY  
EVENING FOR TXZ027-028-033>035-039>041.  
 

 
 

 
 
99/99/26  
 
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