206  
FXUS64 KLUB 241127  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
627 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2018  
   
AVIATION
 
 
A LOW LEVEL JET WAS STILL BLOWING ALLOWING FOR LLWS AT ALL  
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS HAVE FORMED BEHIND  
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOME OF THIS  
DEVELOPMENT MAY AFFECT KCDS BUT CHANCES ARE LOW. ALSO, SLIGHT  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST AT KCDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY  
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF  
AT THE MOMENT.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2018/  
 
UPDATE...  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOWING BETTER MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN  
PANHANDLE - STILL UNCERTAIN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE  
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. BUT WE INCREASED THUNDER CHANCES  
SLIGHTLY LATER TODAY THIS AREA, AND ALSO ADDED A SEVERE THUNDER  
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. RMCQUEEN  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING FROM NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL  
OKLAHOMA, WITH POTENTIAL STILL FOR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO SWING  
AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. BUT LATEST SHORT  
RANGE PROJECTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON SOUTHWEST EXTENT OF THIS  
OUTFLOW - AND RETAIN HOT AND HUMID SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE  
ROLLING PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THIS MAY ACCOUNT FOR THE  
DRAMATIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE FOR  
CHILDRESS (CDS) HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY OF 88 VS 107. SO WE ARE  
LEANING FAIRLY STRONGLY TOWARDS HIGHER END. HIGHS TODAY AREA-WIDE  
SHOULD BE A SCORCHER, WITH H850 READINGS AROUND 35 DEGREES  
CENTIGRADE EXPECTED ON THE CAPROCK WHERE AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD  
LOWER DEWPOINTS CLOSE TO 40 DEGREES. AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE  
105 FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS MEET HEAT ADVISORY  
CRITERIA. AND OFF THE CAPROCK, READINGS SHOULD APPROACH 107-110 IN  
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ROLLING PLAINS, AT LEAST, AND ALSO  
JUSTIFY HEAT ADVISORY. IT WILL TAKE LONGER IN THE AFTERNOON TO MIX  
OUT INTO LOWER HUMIDITY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS, SO HEAT INDEX  
WILL BE A BIGGER FACTOR THIS AREA.  
 
SOLUTIONS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF A SHALLOW AND WEAK FRONTAL PUSH  
INTO THE AREA MONDAY, PERHAPS NOT THAT DIFFERENT FROM SATURDAY'S  
FRONT. SO, ALLOWING AT LEAST SOME DROP IN TEMPERATURES THOUGH  
SKEPTICAL ABOUT DEGREE OF COOLING SHOWN BY THE WRF/NAM IN  
PARTICULAR. IT'S LATE JUNE AFTER-ALL, AND WE HAVE HAD LITTLE  
PROBLEM WARMING RECENTLY BEHIND THESE FRONTS. A BIT OF MID LEVEL  
MOISTURE INCREASE IS EXPECTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE  
AREA LATE MONDAY, AND WE ARE HOLDING ON TO A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR  
EVENING THUNDER.  
 
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CENTRAL PLAINS  
WAVE ENERGY WILL PULL INTO THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING THE UPPER  
RIDGE AXIS TO AMPLIFY JUST TO OUR NORTH. WE EXPECT TO HEAT BACK  
UP, BUT THE HOTTEST READINGS MAY BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. BY  
THURSDAY, A WEAKNESS ALOFT MAY TRY TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS BETWEEN NEW MEXICO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGE CENTERS,  
WITH A VERY MODEST INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLE. LOOKS  
INADEQUATE FOR MENTIONABLE THUNDER CHANCES LATE THURSDAY. BY  
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SOLUTIONS INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH INTO  
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED GFS SOLUTION  
SOMEWHAT FAVORED GIVEN TRENDS AND ALSO RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OVER  
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS MIGHT LEAD TO SOMEWHAT OF A MONSOONAL  
FLOW INTO THE SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND, AND SUPPORTS LOW THUNDER  
MENTION ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES FOR NOW. STILL ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RMCQUEEN  
 
FIRE WEATHER...  
THIS AFTERNOONS HEAT WILL COMBINE WITH A SOLID DROP IN HUMIDITY  
ON THE CAPROCK AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES SOMEWHERE AROUND  
10-20 MPH. WIDESPREAD GREENING ALSO DELAYED. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE  
NEAR ENOUGH REQUIREMENTS FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. RMCQUEEN  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR  
TXZ033>037-039>044.  
 

 
 

 
 
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