241  
FXUS64 KLUB 181109  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
609 AM CDT FRI AUG 18 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL  
REMAIN NORTH OF ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA MAY  
DEVELOP AFTER 21Z TODAY FAVORING KCDS, BUT THIS IS A LOW  
CONFIDENCE SCENARIO AND WILL BE LEFT OUT OF 12Z TAF CYCLE. VFR. JW  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI AUG 18 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
T-STORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING  
AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN  
EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BRUSH OUR NORTHERN OR NORTHEAST COUNTIES  
OF THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD  
NOT AMOUNT TO MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR WEAK T-STORM CELLS.  
 
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE WEST  
AS THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION, BUT THERE STILL  
WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORMS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF  
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM  
YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ON THE CAPROCK  
AND MID TO UPPER 90S OFF.  
 
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND  
EAST TEXAS AS FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WEST  
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST  
TEXAS. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE, WHICH HAS BEEN SHUNTED INTO  
NORTHWEST MEXICO, WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH ACROSS EASTERN AZ AND  
MUCH OF NM. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD NUDGE  
INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF  
T-STORMS TO THAT AREA - WITH MUCH THE SAME SITUATION ON SUNDAY.  
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH HIGH  
TEMPERATURES NOT BUDGING MUCH, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S NORTHWEST  
TO UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST.  
 
BY MONDAY, A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST  
TROUGH WILL BRUSH WEST TEXAS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL DRAG THE MOISTURE PLUME FARTHER  
NORTHEAST WITH IT AND EXPAND THE CHANCE OF T-STORMS FARTHER INTO  
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
IT MAY ALSO BRING CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS WHICH COULD HINDER THE  
VIEWING OF THE ECLIPSE, BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY BE VERY  
CONFIDENT ON THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER.  
 
BY TUESDAY, THE ECMWF DRIVES A FRONT INTO THE AREA AS A SHARP  
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER,  
THE GFS HOLDS THE FRONT UP TO OUR NORTH. PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY  
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL HINGE ON THE FRONT'S PROGRESS BECAUSE  
OTHERWISE UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY KEEP PRECIP CHANCES PRETTY  
LOW. ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE TUTT LOW MOVING INTO TEXAS  
FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THIS POINT THE LOW IS  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR  
WEATHER, BUT COULD EVENTUALLY HELP IN BREAKING DOWN RIDGING OVER  
WEST TEXAS.  
 
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL  
NORMS, AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AROUND MIDWEEK IF THE FRONT MAKES IT  
HERE.  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
33/33/13  
 
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