516  
FXUS64 KLUB 192320  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
520 PM CST THU JAN 19 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
NO AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS TONIGHT, HOWEVER STRONG WEST  
CROSSWINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL RESUME AT LBB BY LATE FRI  
MORNING, WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS FARTHER NORTH TOWARD I-40.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 309 PM CST THU JAN 19 2017/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
 
EXPECTED BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL WEST TEXAS MESONET SITES GUSTING TO BETWEEN  
40 TO 50 MPH. SUSTAINED SPEEDS REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE OUT  
OF THE WEST AND EXPECT TO SEE THESE DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.  
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH CURRENTLY  
CROSSING THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAIN RANGE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN  
WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW LAST  
NIGHT AS INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND  
WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 MPH HELPING TO  
KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE ROLLING  
PLAINS SHOWS THAT WE SHOULDN'T SEE ANY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG EVEN THOUGH  
WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.  
 
THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT A GOOD CLIP AND  
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. MODELS  
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TIGHTEST HEIGHT GRADIENT AND THUS  
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WE SHOULD  
SEE WIND SPEEDS THE SAME OR A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY. THE PASSAGE OF  
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THAT  
WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY. FRONTAL  
PASSAGE WILL ALSO BE DRY AS LITTLE TO NO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE  
AVAILABLE.  
 
JORDAN  
 
LONG TERM...  
 
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. LLJ WILL  
KEEP SURFACE WINDS ELEVATED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, AS  
THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO ENTER THE AREA MIDDAY, THE  
MAIN WIND MAX LOOKS TO SHIFT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. YES,  
WINDS OVER THE FA AT H700 WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 50 KT AND H850 IN  
THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE FOR SATURDAY, BUT MIXING TO THE SURFACE MAY  
BE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER FROM THE TRANSIT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL  
LOW. THEREFORE, WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR WINDS ON  
SATURDAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER  
ON A SOLID SOLUTION FOR PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS  
CONTINUE TO LOOK WELL SATURATED, BUT A DRY SURFACE LAYER IS STILL  
PRESENTING ITSELF AS A MITIGATING FACTOR TO US RECEIVING MUCH, IF  
ANY, PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PASSAGE  
OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BUT FINALLY CALM LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT,  
FOR ONCE, AS UPPER- LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN. A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY  
MAY ELEVATE WINDS SLIGHTLY, BUT TUESDAY RETURNS TO WINDY STATUS AS  
A POTENT UPPER- LEVEL LOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS  
DRAG THE WIND MAX AT H700 AND H850 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AND  
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, MIXING TO THE SURFACE SHOULD BE FAIRLY  
EASY. WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS  
SYSTEM, CHOSE TO GO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE ON WINDS FOR TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
93  
 
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