927
FXUS64 KLUB 101811
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
111 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CAPROCK LATE THIS EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW, BUT
CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND OUTFLOWS WITH THESE STORMS.
- SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND.
- COOLER HIGHS CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY SLIGHT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE A SIMILAR SETUP TO THURSDAY.
UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE TO OUR WEST AND WILL KEEP THE FA UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, ESPECIALLY AS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
LATE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BEFORE
DISSIPATING DUE TO LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH, BUT THE OVERALL
SEVERE RISK IS LOW. THE UPPER HIGH WILL AMPLIFY OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH EVENTUALLY BEING CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS WITH OVERHEAD UPPER FLOW BEING MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTH.
WHILE THIS USUALLY RESULTS IN REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES, THE REMNANTS
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL STILL BE IN THE REGION AND COULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR UNORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF
THIS EVENING, LOW WITH WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH BEING THE MAIN RISK.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE REMNANT STATIONARY
FRONT SHOULD HELP COOL SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A COUPLE DEGREES
OVER WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND AND SOMEWHAT QUIET AND DOMINATED
BY AN UPPER HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL
BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SPELL HOT AND DRY WEATHER
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. FOR WEST TEXAS, WE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY
COOLER HIGHS, AVERAGING IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW
TO MID 90S OFF THE CAPROCK, AND LOW DAILY RAIN CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE DEPENDING ON A COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES
AND WEAKNESSES ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER HIGH.
THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE BACK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN OF HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE FA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AROUND 15G25KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
CALMING THROUGH THE EVENING. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...12
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