455  
FXUS64 KLUB 252011  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
311 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
THE WEEKEND WILL CLOSE OUT WITH MORE WARM AND DRY LATE OCTOBER  
WEATHER. THE ONLY QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RECORD HIGHS  
WILL FALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS A  
POINT OF REFERENCE...THE CURRENT RECORD HIGHS ARE:  
 
TODAY /OCT 25/ TOMORROW /OCT 26/  
LUBBOCK: 91 DEGREES /1959/ 88 DEGREES /1979/  
CHILDRESS: 94 DEGREES /2011/ 93 DEGREES /1950/  
 
AS OF 19Z...TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S WERE COMMONPLACE...WITH  
EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND  
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...INCLUDING CHILDRESS...AT OR AROUND 90  
DEGREES.  
 
THIS FALL WARMTH WAS BEING PROVIDED BY A STOUT LATE SEASON UPPER  
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL  
DE-AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH  
MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASING  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR WEST TEXAS...THOUGH ONLY MINOR HEIGHT  
FALLS SHOULD BE CANCELED OUT BY A SLIGHT UPTICK IN DOWNSLOPING  
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ON SUNDAY. THUS...EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN  
TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW...WITH ANOTHER AFTERNOON IN THE  
80S FOR MOST SPOTS WITH A FEW LOWER 90S OFF THE CAPROCK. THE  
APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH AND INCREASING FLOW NORMAL TO THE  
MOUNTAINS WILL INDUCE A DEEPENING SURFACE LEE TROUGH WHICH IN TURN  
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TO BREEZY LEVELS ON SUNDAY...  
PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...WHERE THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST. IN ADDITION...WE COULD SEE A LITTLE  
HIGH-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE GET CARRIED OVER  
TOMORROW...WITH PATCHES OF THIN CIRRUS BREAKING UP THE CRYSTAL CLEAR  
SKIES OF LATE.  
 
BEFORE THEN...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL YIELD  
ANOTHER COOL /BUT ABOVE AVERAGE/ NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S  
AND LOWER 50S ON THE CAPROCK...WHILE 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL BE COMMON  
FURTHER EAST. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...A LITTLE PATCHY GROUND FOG  
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN ON THE CAPROCK...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE  
LIMITED AT BEST AND WE HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
MODELS AGAIN SHOWING GOOD CONTINUITY BETWEEN THEMSELVES AND RUN-  
TO-RUN RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. FOCUS  
CONTINUES TO BE ON A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST  
AREA MONDAY EVENING AND POSSIBILY OF THUNDER DEVELOPING ALONG  
IT...PRIMARILY EASTERN ZONES. PROGGED SFC DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS  
THE LOWER 50S...BUT TIME OF DAY MEANS ANY BOUNDARY LAYER BASED  
CAPE LESS LIKELY TO BE TAPPED. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO FAIRLY  
MODEST...AND THE WEAK AND VERY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH MOVING  
ACROSS CONCURRENLY WILL PROBABLY BE UNABLE TO GENERATE MUCH UPPER  
SUPPORT EITHER. OBVIOUSLY PRECIP CHANCES ARE NON-ZERO...BUT THERE  
ARE STILL TOO MANY NEGATIVE FACTORS INVOLVED TO INSERT MENTION  
ATTM.  
 
A SECOND COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA  
THURSDAY SHOULD HAVE EVEN LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND NO LIFT WITH  
NO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EVIDENT IN NWLY FLOW OVERHEAD.  
 
WARM TEMPS MONDAY TO BE REPLACED BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE  
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THEN ONLY TOWARD SEASONAL  
NORMS. REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND THURSDAYS FRONT COULD LEAD TO  
COOLEST NIGHTTIME TEMPS OF THE SEASON LATE WEEK.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
FRIONA 47 86 52 75 38 / 0 0 0 10 0  
TULIA 50 87 54 78 39 / 0 0 0 10 10  
PLAINVIEW 47 86 54 80 41 / 0 0 0 0 10  
LEVELLAND 50 86 54 81 42 / 0 0 0 0 10  
LUBBOCK 53 87 56 82 43 / 0 0 0 0 10  
DENVER CITY 51 87 54 83 44 / 0 0 0 0 10  
BROWNFIELD 49 87 55 83 44 / 0 0 0 0 10  
CHILDRESS 59 92 60 86 47 / 0 0 0 10 10  
SPUR 54 87 55 86 46 / 0 0 0 0 10  
ASPERMONT 58 88 57 87 49 / 0 0 0 0 10  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
23/07  
 
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