571  
FXUS64 KLUB 251125  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
625 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014  
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZES.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEST TEXAS WEATHER  
TODAY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF THE MID-SUMMER HEAT. A SLIGHT  
UPTICK IN PROGGED 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND 850/700 MB  
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN  
ON THURSDAY FOR MOST SPOTS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE  
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE CAPROCK...WITH 100 TO 104  
DEGREES COMMON IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. AS HAS OCCURRED THE LAST  
COUPLE OF DAYS...THIS HEAT AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE  
ENOUGH TO FORCE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LATE DAY  
SHOWER...THOUGH COVERAGE AND DURATION WOULD BE VERY LOW...WITH POPS  
UNDER 5 PERCENT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WILL  
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO  
MIDDLE 70S EAST. THIS TOASTY PATTERN DOES RAISE CONCERN FOR HEAT  
RELATED ILLNESSES...THOUGH IT APPEARS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL  
GENERALLY REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD  
OF 105 DEGREES.  
 
LONG TERM...  
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE  
PROGGING THE WARMEST MID-LEVEL TEMPS DURING THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL BE  
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100F FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ACROSS THE ROLLING  
PLAINS...WHERE THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS WILL BE FOUND...HEAT INDICES  
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AIR TEMP AND WE  
DON/T EXPECT ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. ON  
SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL  
CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE MIDWEST...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH  
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPARK  
SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN  
SRN COLO AND NRN NM. INCREASING NW FLOW ALOFT MAY DIRECT SOME OF  
THIS ACTIVITY SEWD INTO OUR NW COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT  
WILL LIKELY SLIP INTO OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH  
THE EXACT PROGRESSION IS UNCERTAIN. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A  
MODEST DROP IN TEMPS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT  
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FRONT /HOPEFULLY/ IN THE  
AREA AND BETTER MID-LVL INSTABILITY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO  
THE WEST. IN GENERAL...OUR CWA SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF NW FLOW  
ALOFT...AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE TUES THROUGH  
THURS...WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT PERIOD.  
THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR HOWEVER. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A  
STRONG PREFERENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AN AXIS RUNNING  
FROM SRN COLO...SEWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...INTO WRN OKLA AND THE  
RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS PUTS OUR NE ZONES IN THE BEST LOCATION FOR  
RAIN...WITH CHANCES TAPERING DOWN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. GUIDANCE  
ALSO SUGGESTS A WELL-DEVELOPED MCS WED NIGHT...TIED TO A DISTINCT  
SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. IF THIS OCCURS...IT MAY DRIVE  
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. BY LATE  
WEEK...GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE  
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BACK ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN. THE BEST  
FOCUS FOR RAIN IN THIS PATTEN MAY BE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...BUT  
UPPER-FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME ACTIVITY EASTWARD  
INTO OUR WRN COUNTIES. AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER MAXING OUT OVER THE  
WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE THEM GRADUALLY FALLING BACK THROUGH MID-  
WEEK. THU MAY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ONLY  
IN THE 80S. IN THE FORECAST PATTERN WE WOULD USUALLY EXPECT ONLY A  
GRADUAL...MODEST WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
FRIONA 98 67 98 66 95 / 0 0 10 10 20  
TULIA 96 68 98 68 96 / 0 0 10 10 10  
PLAINVIEW 96 68 97 68 96 / 0 0 0 10 10  
LEVELLAND 98 68 99 67 97 / 0 0 0 10 10  
LUBBOCK 100 71 99 71 98 / 0 0 0 10 10  
DENVER CITY 99 68 98 68 97 / 0 0 0 10 10  
BROWNFIELD 99 69 99 69 98 / 0 0 0 10 10  
CHILDRESS 101 73 102 73 102 / 0 0 0 10 10  
SPUR 98 71 99 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 10  
ASPERMONT 100 74 102 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
23/33/23  
 
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