236
FXUS64 KLUB 081045
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
545 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 543 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
- ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE OFF THE CAPROCK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- MULTIPLE DAYS OF AROUND TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A WARM AND PLEASANT DAY. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PASS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SADLY, IT WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE REGION. A
SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHING
AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY. MODELS INDICATE IT WILL STALL PART WAY
THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL BRING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. HOWEVER,
THE LACK OF MOISTURE ON THE LOWER LEVELS AND LITTLE TO NO UPPER
FORCING, ONLY A BRIEF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS EXPECTED. WITH
THE STORMS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF, CHANCES FOR SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
LOW, HOWEVER STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. ANY
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE CLEARED THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL START OFF WITH A HOT SATURDAY. A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL TRIPPER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A LEE SURFACE TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, RAMPING UP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL AIDE IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES TO THE 90S ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING
DUE TO LINGERING MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING FROM
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER, STORM CHANCES ARE ONLY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH BETTER STORM
CHANCES EXPECTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OFF THE CAPROCK EARLY
SUNDAY, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN STORMS OCCURRING TO THE EAST
OF THE CWA. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SADLY DO NOT LAST PAST SUNDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER WESTERN CONUS. WITH HEIGHT
AND THICKNESS INCREASES DUE TO THE RIDGING AS WELL AS PREDOMINATELY
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WE WILL SEE
MULTIPLE DAYS OF HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO JUST ABOVE
100 BEGINNING TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
IFR WILL MOSTLY PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING AT KLBB. A MORE BRIEF
PERIOD IS POSSIBLE AT KPVW. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT GENERALLY EASTWARD THIS
EVENING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...19
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