851  
FXUS64 KLUB 172058  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
258 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO  
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA EARLIER TODAY NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE SRN  
HIGH PLAINS WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAVING SHIFTED TO THE  
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA. CLEARING SKIES WORKING SLOWLY EWD  
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SHOULD SEE THAT TREND CONTINUE THROUGH  
THE EVENING. HOWEVER...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE  
TO NEAR CHILDRESS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. AS IT DOES A COLD FRONT WILL  
SLIP IN BEHIND IT AND WILL DRAW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO  
THE FCST AREA. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THEN ABOUT HOW FAR THAT  
CLEARING WILL GET TONIGHT AND HOW AGGRESSIVELY IT MOVES BACK IN  
THURSDAY. CONCERNED THIS SCENARIO PLAYS INTO THE NAM/S BIAS...BUT  
ALSO CAN SEE IT AS A REAL POSSIBILITY. GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE HAVE  
TRENDED SKY AND TEMP FCST TOWARD A MODEL BLEND ATTM. FCST AREA  
SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP-FREE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING  
MOVES OVERHEAD BY EARLY THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
THE AXIS OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS  
CENTRAL NM EARLY FRIDAY WHICH MAY DEVELOP SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS  
THE FA. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE  
MORE MOISTURE WILL BE READILY AVAILABLE. A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS  
MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUED BE CARRIED FOR OUR  
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE HOVERING NEAR  
FREEZING WHICH MAY RESULT IN A FEW FLAKES MIXING IN WITH RAIN. ANY  
SNOW THAT DOES FALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE AS GROUND SURFACE  
TEMPS WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO RESPOND TO AMBIENT AIR TEMPS DROPPING TO  
BELOW FREEZING. THE TROF WILL QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD FRIDAY AS WILL  
OUR PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE  
REGION AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY  
MENTIONABLE PRECIP. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LOW DUE TO SUCH A SHORT  
WINDOW BETWEEN TROFS. THE ECMWF DOES PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF SATURDAY  
NIGHT BUT COULD BE A FACTOR OF THE WET BIAS OF THE MODEL AND IS NOT  
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.  
 
ANOTHER TROF SHOULD SOON FOLLOW LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHICH  
SHOULD BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR  
THE TIME BEING IS THIS TROF WILL ALSO BE DRY IN TERMS OF PRECIP DUE  
TO A LIMITED MOISTURE RECOVERY TIME. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW STRATIFORM  
PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A PRODUCT OF FRONTOGENETIC LIFT BUT HAS  
BEEN RELATIVELY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW  
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR OR  
JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
FRIONA 29 50 28 47 23 / 0 0 20 10 10  
TULIA 33 48 30 45 26 / 10 10 20 20 10  
PLAINVIEW 33 51 31 46 28 / 10 0 20 20 10  
LEVELLAND 33 56 30 49 26 / 0 0 20 20 10  
LUBBOCK 35 55 32 49 29 / 0 0 20 20 10  
DENVER CITY 35 58 33 52 27 / 0 0 20 10 10  
BROWNFIELD 35 58 33 50 28 / 0 0 20 20 10  
CHILDRESS 36 50 35 47 31 / 10 10 20 20 10  
SPUR 37 57 34 48 30 / 10 0 20 20 10  
ASPERMONT 40 59 39 49 32 / 10 10 30 30 10  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
07/51  
 
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