415
FXUS64 KLUB 011836
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
136 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 136 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- AFTER SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY (MID 90S), HOT
WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK (UPPER 90S TO MID 100S). MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
THE COLD FRONT IS WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FA AS OF NOON WITH MUCH
OF THE FA BEING STABILIZED. STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND ARE SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE
NORTHERLY STEERING CURRENT. WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MOST,
IF NOT ALL, CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FA DUE TO NORTHERLY
UPPER FLOW AND A MARGINALLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO CROSS THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE INTO
OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING WHERE WE HAVE KEPT LOW POP
MENTION BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION SUNDAY AS THICKNESSES INCREASE. THIS WILL HELP WARM HIGHS
INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FA WITH A FEW AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK REACHING 100 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY REMAINS RATHER BENIGN WITH LOW PRECIP
CHANCES. THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION AND CENTERED NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS WHILE STRETCHING FROM CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO
COLORADO. THIS WILL KEEP UPPER FLOW WEAK AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTH
OVER THE FA, A NOT-SO-FAVORABLE BUT ALSO NOT-IMPOSSIBLE PATTERN FOR
STORMS. HIGHLY ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF ANY
WEAKNESSES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH OR IF ANY OF THE WEAK
SURFACE FRONTS PROGGED TO OUR NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK CAN PUSH INTO
THE FA. THOUGH AFTERNOONS WILL STILL BE HOT, THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS
HOT AS LAST WEEK DUE TO THE UPPER HIGH BEING FURTHER WESTWARD. HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND AROUND/JUST OVER
100 OFF THE CAPROCK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
VFR WITH ONLY SLIM CHANCES FOR TS LATER TODAY, MAINLY WEST OF LBB
AND PVW.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...93
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