575  
FXUS64 KLUB 030445  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
1145 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016  
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THROUGH  
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON BRINGING A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT AND AN INCREASE IN  
CLOUD COVER. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF -SHRA OR -TSRA WITH THE  
FROPA IN THE VICINITY OF KCDS BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO  
MENTION IN THE TAF.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 623 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/  
 
AVIATION...  
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE  
AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A  
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AN  
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATE TO WIDELY  
SCATTERED -TSRA IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN  
ROLLING PLAINS.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE  
EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING  
HOURS. WIND WILL ONCE AGAIN GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND  
WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES CRATER ACROSS THE  
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ONCE AGAIN. AFTER THE COOL START TO THE  
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AS SURFACE WIND RETURNS BACK TO  
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE STILL WANTING TO SWING A  
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND ARE GENERATING  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN SLIDING  
IT SOUTHEAST. WITH SURFACE FLOW RETURNING TO THE SOUTH FAIRLY LATE  
IN THE MORNING...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE  
LIMITED THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT CONVECTION THAT  
DEVELOPS WILL MOST LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS  
BELOW THE CLOUD BASE. ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME OF THE  
PRECIPITATION EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AS WELL AS THE  
POSSIBILITY OF SOME MICROBURST DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. MOST FAVORED  
AREA IS THE NORTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE LIFT IS THE  
STRONGEST FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND THE BETTER MOISTURE IS LOCATED...  
HOWEVER AT BEST COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BARELY BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE.  
 
JORDAN  
 
LONG TERM...  
TUESDAY EVENING BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH IN NW FLOW AND  
DWINDLING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS ALL IN ADVANCE OF  
HEIGHT RISES ACCOMPANYING A LONGWAVE RIDGE. THIS RIDGE AXIS SHOULD  
SLIDE EAST AND SIT DIRECTLY ATOP THE SOUTH PLAINS BY THURSDAY  
NIGHT BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY CYCLONIC SWLY FLOW. ONLY A MODIFIED  
FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN THU AND FRI...SO PRECIP CHANCES  
LOOK VERY POOR AND NOT WORTHY OF MENTION IN THE GRIDS. A GRADUAL  
UPTICK IN PWATS BY THIS WEEKEND AND SUBSEQUENT DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT  
IN THE CWA STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR 20-40 POPS UNDERNEATH STRONGER  
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...HOWEVER A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IN THE  
FOUR CORNERS IS FAVORED TO MOBILIZE AND ACCELERATE EASTWARD AND  
PASS TO OUR NORTH BY SUN NIGHT. THIS EASTERLY SHIFT WILL LIKELY  
KEEP THE DRYLINE OFF THE CAPROCK COME SUN AFTN AHEAD OF WHAT  
COULD BE SOME STOUT SWLY WINDS IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. MUCH OF THIS  
EASTWARD KICK OF THE LOW HINGES ON PHASING DETAILS WITH A  
NORTHERLY STREAM TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...SO SOME  
CHANGES TO THIS THEME COULD EASILY EMERGE IN THE COMING DAYS.  
ASIDE FROM DROPPING LOW TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WED MORNING ON THE  
CAPROCK...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE INHERITED TEMPS WERE NECESSARY.  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
33  
 
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