936  
FXUS64 KLUB 221130  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
630 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014  
   
AVIATION
 
 
A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH THE KLBB TERMINAL AS THIS  
IS BEING WRITTEN. WHILE THE WFO CEILOMETER INDICATED A BRIEF DROP  
IN CEILINGS TO AROUND 900 FT...SUCH LOWERING HAS NOT BEEN SEEN AT  
THE AERODROME. THIS BAND SHOULD AFFECT KCDS LATER THIS MORNING AS  
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOME TSTM  
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS  
EVENING THOUGH TIMING REMAINS NEBULOUS.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 226 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
CURVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM SRN SK THENCE SOUTHWARD  
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THEN SWWD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA  
SUR WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TODAY. BROAD AREA OF FAVORABLE DIV-Q  
FIELDS FOR LIFT IS MOVING IN FROM ERN NM WHERE SOME LIGHT SHOWER  
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ONGOING. THIS AREA OF LIFT SHOULD REMAIN OVER  
THE CWFA MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY BEFORE SLIDING INTO N TX.  
 
DATA SUGGEST THAT ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE  
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. WHILE AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE  
OVERLY HIGH...GOOD COVERAGE APPEARS TO INDICATE INCREASED POPS AND  
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LIKELY CENTRAL THIS MORNING AND EAST THIS  
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE TROUGH...SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY SETS IN THUS  
HELPING TO DRY OUT THE MID LEVELS AND BRINGING A QUICK END TO  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AT THIS POINT...THE ROLLING PLAINS MAY BE  
DONE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. GIVEN MAIN LIFT WELL EAST OF THE  
AREA...HAVE PULLED POPS POST 06Z.  
 
LONG TERM...  
THE UA TROUGH THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO PROVIDE THE SOUTH PLAINS AND  
ROLLING PLAINS WITH WELCOMED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER  
TODAY...WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.  
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW  
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES  
PLACE COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING UA RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THE  
TRANSLATION OF THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY THRU  
EARLY WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN DRYER CONDITIONS...INCREASING HEIGHT  
FIELDS THUS SUGGESTING WARMER TEMPS ARE IN STORE /LOWER TO UPPER  
80S/. BY SUNDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF  
THE FA THANKS TO AN BROAD LOW MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE NW PACIFIC.  
LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL PROMOTE BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS WHICH AID IN  
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 80S.  
 
THEREAFTER...LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DIFFER WRT TO THE EXACT TRAJECTORY  
OF THE PACIFIC DISTURBANCE. THE GFS PROPAGATES THE DISTURBANCE  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON  
MONDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA ON  
TUESDAY...THOUGH DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL NEED TIME TO  
MOISTEN UP WHICH APPEARS TO OCCUR BY TUESDAY NIGHT PER THE  
GFS...WITH LIGHT QPF SIGNALS NOTED MORE SO ACROSS THE EXTREME LOW  
ROLLING PLAINS. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THE DISTURBANCE AND  
THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY  
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN PRECIP MORE SO ACROSS THE  
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN ITS DEPICTION OF A QUICKER RECOVERY IN  
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTENING. MAINTAINING BELOW MENTIONABLE 10-13 PERCENT  
POPS OFF THE CAPROCK APPEARS VALID AT THIS TIME. WHAT IS AGREED UPON  
IS THE RETURN OF BELOW NORM TEMPS NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
FRIONA 70 51 78 50 83 / 40 10 0 0 0  
TULIA 72 55 79 52 85 / 60 20 10 0 0  
PLAINVIEW 72 54 78 52 83 / 60 20 10 0 0  
LEVELLAND 71 54 78 53 83 / 70 20 10 0 0  
LUBBOCK 72 55 79 54 84 / 60 20 10 0 0  
DENVER CITY 72 51 78 54 83 / 70 20 10 0 0  
BROWNFIELD 72 54 79 54 84 / 70 20 10 0 0  
CHILDRESS 78 59 82 58 87 / 70 30 10 0 0  
SPUR 75 57 81 57 86 / 60 30 10 0 0  
ASPERMONT 78 59 82 58 86 / 60 30 10 0 0  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
99/99/26  
 
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