495  
FXUS64 KLUB 290140  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
840 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014  
   
UPDATE
 
 
THE STUBBORN LINE OF WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED AS OF  
00Z...LEAVING THE ENTIRE CWA DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. ACROSS  
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND CREEPING  
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE STATE LINE VERY SLOWLY. IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST  
HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRAVERSE BEFORE  
DIMINISHING...HOWEVER MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW  
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN  
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS THE BORDER. UPDATED POPS TO  
ELIMINATE MENTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH 06Z...AND  
FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS TO REFLECT THIS  
POSSIBILITY. LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE  
CONTINUES TO VARY CONSIDERABLY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF  
PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE DURING THIS TIME  
FRAME...AS IT DEVELOPS A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION  
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AFTER 06Z AND SLOWLY  
SPREADS IT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WHILE THIS MAY BE  
SOMEWHAT OVERDONE...OPTED TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR OUR NORTHWESTERN  
ZONES THROUGH 12Z WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD EXPANSION OF POPS WITH  
TIME.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/  
 
AVIATION...  
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z AS  
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DIMINISH.  
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ACROSS EASTERN NM MAY REACH LBB  
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS  
BELOW 50 PERCENT AND LIKEWISE IS TOO LOW FOR EXPLICIT TAF MENTION  
AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END MENTION OF -TSRA AT CDS LATE  
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AS MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO  
INDICATE AN ENHANCEMENT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS  
PANHANDLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH LBB AND CDS TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM EXPLICIT TAF MENTION  
UNTIL CERTAINTY INCREASES REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS  
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY NOW PASSING KABI AND KMAF.  
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN AXIS  
OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. FURTHER N A BAND OF STORMS HAVE PERSISTED  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EARLIER WAS  
SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE  
CONVERGENCE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING IN THIS AREA  
WHICH LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEING  
SLOWLY SQUEEZED SOUTH INTO FAR W TX.  
 
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT WILL LOOK FOR  
CONVECTION TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WITH AN UPTICK IN  
STORMS ACROSS ERN NM WITHIN A PLUME OF HEALTHY DEEP MONSOONAL  
MOISTURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A HINT OF CYCLONIC SPIN  
WITHIN THIS MOIST AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF MORNING BLOWUP OF  
CONVECTION OVER THE SACRAMENTOS. IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE IS WHAT THE  
SHORT RANGE AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON WITH RESPECT TO  
STORMS CROSSING THE NM BORDER INTO W TX THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ALSO IS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE AND  
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THIS  
TO SAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  
CONFIDENCE IN POPS LESSEN QUICKLY ON TUE AS WARMFRONT BEGINS TO WORK  
BACK NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWV ENERGY GETS MIXED UP IN WESTERLY  
FLOW ACROSS THE PNHDL. STILL FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS FOR POPS BUT  
REMNANT BOUNDARY AND ANY OVERNIGHT MCV COULD STILL PROVIDE A FOCUS  
FURTHER S.  
 
FOR TEMPS UNDERCUT GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT TOMORROW AFTN ESPECIALLY  
NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN HANG TOUGH. PROGRESS  
OF WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE 90 DEGREE ISOTHERM  
GETS.  
 
LONG TERM...  
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS  
WEEK ALTHOUGH MORE CERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO COOLER  
TEMPERATURES. A SHORT WAVE WILL JUST BRUSH THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST  
TOMORROW NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.  
THIS WILL BRING MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO  
OKLAHOMA. A MORE COMPLICATED FORECAST EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW A  
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL RECEIVE A  
FURTHER BOOST FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.  
IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW THE FRONT WILL PLAY INTO THE  
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND  
THE FRONT RESULTING IN CONTINUING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES. ANOTHER DRAMATIC COOL OFF WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD  
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON  
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL WINDS ON THURSDAY BUT  
WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SEVERE  
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE  
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.  
 
WE WILL REMAIN IN THIS UPPER PATTERN OF LONG WAVE TROUGHING IN THE  
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND FROM THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
FRIONA 63 84 64 83 61 / 50 50 30 40 30  
TULIA 63 83 66 84 62 / 40 50 30 40 30  
PLAINVIEW 65 83 67 89 62 / 40 40 20 30 30  
LEVELLAND 68 88 68 92 63 / 30 20 20 20 30  
LUBBOCK 67 87 70 92 63 / 30 30 20 30 30  
DENVER CITY 69 92 68 95 62 / 20 10 20 20 30  
BROWNFIELD 69 91 69 94 64 / 30 20 20 20 30  
CHILDRESS 67 83 69 84 66 / 30 60 30 40 30  
SPUR 69 88 69 94 65 / 20 30 20 30 30  
ASPERMONT 70 92 72 97 68 / 20 30 20 30 30  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
16/99  
 
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