552  
FXUS64 KLUB 041111  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
511 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015  
   
AVIATION
 
 
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A  
STRONG COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION DUE TO  
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. IFR  
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT KPVW AND KLBB THRU THE DAY. MVFR WITH PERIODS  
OF IFR POSSIBLE AT KCDS. LIQUID OR FREEZING PRECIP EARLY IN THE  
DAY TO TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW BY AFTN.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 348 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
COMPLEX SCENARIO TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING FALLING  
TEMPERATURES...FREEZING MARK TO BE REACHED ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST  
AREA BY NOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA CALIF EARLY THIS  
MORNING OPENS UP AND EJECTS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A  
VERY GOOD CHANCE AT MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY  
SHOWING A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ACROSS NRN MEXICO ACROSS WEST  
TEXAS THAT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART WITH A  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE WRN ZONES THIS AFTN.  
AS INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WORKS ON THE  
DEEP MOISTURE...WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FIELD THIS MORNING  
WITH A PEAK IN LIFT EXPECTED THIS AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS INTO LIKELY  
TO CATEGORICAL RANGE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO MULTIPLE PHASE  
CHANGES...WITH RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENT...THEN FREEZING RAIN AS THE  
COLD FRONT UNDERCUTS WARM MID LEVEL AIR...THEN SLEET TO SNOW THIS  
AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS MID LEVELS  
COOL WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BRINING THE WARM MID LEVEL  
NOSE BELOW 0C. FREEZING/FROZEN ACCUMULATION TRICKY DEPENDING LARGELY  
ON TIMING OF THOSE CHANGEOVERS...BUT IN GENERAL MAYBE A FEW  
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF GLAZE FOLLOWED BY ROUGHLY 1 INCH OF SLEET  
AND SNOW ACCUMULATION...POSSIBLY MORE IN ANY MESOSCALE  
FRONTOGENTICALLY OR ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIP  
THAT MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE PINNED DOWN LATER THIS MORNING. PRECIP  
SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LIKELY COMING TO  
AN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WINTER WX ADVISORY LOOKS FINE AS PREVIOUSLY  
CONFIGURED.  
 
LONG TERM...  
A QUIET...AND WARM...END OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN STORE AFTER WE TELL  
WINTER ON THURS THAT IT IS NO LONGER WELCOME IN THESE PARTS. WINTRY  
PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY THURS MORNING AS DRY AIR  
WORKS INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THURS AS  
TEMP ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MOSTLY NEUTRAL AND THE  
LINGERING SNOW COVER WILL HELP KEEP COOL AIR IN PLACE. AN ELONGATED  
POS TILTED TROF WILL BE OVERHEAD BUT WILL DO LITTLE TO AFFECT THE  
WEATHER AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD BY LATE THURS NIGHT MAKING WAY FOR  
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS  
TEXAS FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY BEFORE OPENING UP AND  
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD. THIS LOW WILL BE DRY FOR THE WEST TEXAS  
REGION WHILE PROVIDING PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE TEXAS GULF  
COAST. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LEE TROFS DEVELOP AND MOVE  
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THOUGH A SLOW PROCESS...THIS WILL HELP  
WARM TEMPS TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE /HIGHS IN THE MID 60S/ BY MID  
NEXT WEEK. FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY  
AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY AND...BEST OF ALL...THE SUN WILL BE OUT.  
 
ALDRICH  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
FRIONA 31 14 34 17 / 70 30 0 0  
TULIA 31 15 35 18 / 80 30 0 0  
PLAINVIEW 34 16 35 18 / 80 40 0 0  
LEVELLAND 39 17 35 19 / 80 40 0 0  
LUBBOCK 38 18 36 19 / 80 50 0 0  
DENVER CITY 43 20 35 20 / 80 40 0 0  
BROWNFIELD 42 19 35 20 / 80 40 0 0  
CHILDRESS 33 18 37 20 / 80 30 0 0  
SPUR 37 19 35 20 / 80 50 0 0  
ASPERMONT 42 20 34 20 / 80 50 0 0  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR  
TXZ021>044.  
 

 
 

 
 
07/51/07  
 
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