478
FXUS64 KLUB 210554
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1154 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS PREVAILING. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT MOISTENING IN THE LOW
LEVELS MAY OCCUR AT KCDS AROUND SUNRISE...WILL KEEP FOG MENTION OUT
OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1029 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER MOST MINIMUMS TONIGHT A CATEGORY AS
TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY. DROPPED LOWS A BIT MORE THAN THAT
OVER NORTHWEST ZONES. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY OCCUR AT KCDS
AROUND SUNRISE...WILL KEEP FOG MENTION OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA. STOUT INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DECOUPLE EFFICIENTLY THIS EVENING AND HAVE ADJUSTED LOWS
DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE ENHANCED COOLING AND PRE-EXISTING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AND THE GRIDS REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY SO LONG
AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO DECREASE ACROSS THAT
REGION.
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM DUE IN ON SUNDAY MORNING. AT PRESENT...
EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO EXIST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE CWFA. 26
LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD THIS CYCLE AS FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK. WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY IN
RESPONSE TO MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS. ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE SRN
ZONES AS WE MAY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AHEAD OF THE FROPA.
STRONGER TROUGH THEN EMERGES OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY. ECMWF STILL
DEEPER/FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND IS PREFERRED...BUT IN EITHER
CASE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LACKING FOR ANY PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH A STRONGER FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL
AIR WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 50S FOR
HIGHS AND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD BE CHILLY
TOO...ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AS SFC RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS AREA AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT. WARMING TREND EXPECT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FRIONA 21 65 30 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 26 66 33 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 26 66 33 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 23 68 32 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 29 67 35 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 25 68 33 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 26 69 31 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 35 65 39 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 27 67 37 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 35 67 42 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
29
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