388  
FXUS64 KLUB 290828  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
328 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
AN UA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO OUR WEST HAS PROMOTED NWRLY  
FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS  
MORNING. AS A RESULT OF A BIT OF WEAKNESS ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF  
THE UA RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT...AN MCS /ALBEIT WANING  
WITH TIME/ HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO TRACK SSE ACROSS ERN NM EARLY THIS  
MORNING...THUS THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION REMAINING JUST WEST OF  
THE CWA. ACROSS THE CWA...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT  
HAVE BEEN GENERATED BY A RATHER DIFFUSED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC  
TROUGH DRAPED FROM THE SWRN ZONES TO THE NERN ZONES...HAVE FINALLY  
DIMINISHED IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT  
REGENERATION OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR A BIT OF THE CONVECTION  
ACROSS ERN NM SNEAKING INTO THE WRN ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  
 
COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT ENDURING RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL...SRN AND ERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTN-EVENING  
/PWATS OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES/...COUPLED WITH THE WEAKNESS ACROSS THE  
WRN PERIPHERY OF THE SAID RIDGE...DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION AND THE  
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH TO RESULT IN  
A CHANCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING  
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHILE THE TTU  
WRF AND THE GFS MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS LOCALES ON  
THE CAPROCK. THIS CAN NOT BE IGNORE SO WILL INTRODUCE LOW END SLIGHT  
CHANCE POPS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN ZONES...WITH 10-12 PERCENT  
POPS NOTED ACROSS THE NRN ZONES DURING THE DAYTIME. ALTHOUGH LAPSE  
RATES WILL STEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE AFTN...SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE  
RATHER WEAK...SO SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW ATTM.  
 
GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF CLOUD COVER AND INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF  
NRLY SFC WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS TODAY  
/UPPER 80S ON THE CAPROCK TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OFF THE CAPROCK/...  
FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SANDWICHED BETWEEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE  
EAST AND A PERSISTENT WEST COAST TROUGH WILL RESULT IN HOT AND  
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL  
COME IN THE VCNTY OF THE LEE SFC TROUGH ACROSS ERN NM TO THE WRN  
PANHANDLE. CHANCES WILL BE SMALL ALTHOUGH WILL GROW SOME TOWARD  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH EDGES CLOSER TO  
THE PLAINS. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY IN THE WEEK AND BETTER  
CHANCES /STILL SMALL/ ARE OUT IN DAYS 6 AND 7...WILL LEAVE MENTION  
OUT OF THE FCST ATTM. TEMPS NEAR MODEL BLEND LOOK REASONABLE...  
GENERALLY NEAR TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND NEAR TO A  
TOUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR LOWS AS DEW POINT TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S  
THRU THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
FRIONA 88 60 91 62 / 10 0 0 0  
TULIA 89 61 92 60 / 10 0 0 0  
PLAINVIEW 88 62 92 62 / 10 0 0 0  
LEVELLAND 89 64 91 62 / 20 10 0 0  
LUBBOCK 89 65 93 64 / 20 0 0 0  
DENVER CITY 88 63 92 63 / 20 10 0 0  
BROWNFIELD 89 65 92 65 / 20 10 0 0  
CHILDRESS 95 67 97 67 / 10 0 0 0  
SPUR 93 67 96 65 / 10 10 0 0  
ASPERMONT 97 70 100 67 / 20 10 10 0  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
29/07  
 
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