478  
FXUS64 KLUB 282310  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
510 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014  
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE  
AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 251 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
 
A WARM AND BREEZY LATE NOVEMBER DAY IS IN PROGRESS WITH 20Z  
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S MIXING IN  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND  
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DEEPER THERMALLY DRIVEN MIXING...BUT A  
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF A 30+ KT LLJ SHOULD HELP  
KEEP THE WINDS UP SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. THE WARM DAY TODAY FOLLOWED BY  
MODEST BREEZES OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS BY  
MORNING RANGING FROM THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ON THE CAPROCK TO MID TO  
UPPER 40S JUST OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE LATE NIGHT WINDS AND DOWNSLOPE  
COMPONENT ARE MAXIMIZED. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WILL FOLLOW  
TOMORROW AS SURFACE LEE TROUGHING KEEPS DOWNSLOPE BREEZES BLOWING.  
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL AGAIN TOP OUT SOME 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE  
AVERAGE AND RECORD HIGHS COULD BE THREATENED. AS A POINT OF  
REFERENCE...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS ARE AS  
FOLLOWS:  
 
TODAY (FRI 11/28) TOMORROW (SAT 11/29)  
LUBBOCK 83 SET IN 1949 78 SET IN 2012  
CHILDRESS 85 SET IN 1949 81 SET IN 1893  
 
LONG TERM...  
 
A GENERALLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR WEST  
TEXAS...PUNCTUATED BY A BRIEF BUT SHARP COOLDOWN MONDAY FOLLOWING A  
BREEZY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.  
 
BY SATURDAY EVENING...BROAD AND MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN  
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS...WHILE A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL  
BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AHEAD OF THIS  
WAVE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND LIKELY WILL NOT REACH THE SOUTH AND ROLLING  
PLAINS UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BREEZY  
WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A  
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT WILL LIKELY  
PREVENT WIND SPEEDS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. STILL...DEEPER  
MIXING INTO A NARROW RIBBON OF 25-30KT MIDLEVEL WINDS COMBINED WITH  
A BIT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD RESULT  
IN ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. AFTER SUNSET...THE PREVIOUSLY  
MENTIONED FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY RACE SOUTHWARD...BRINGING WITH IT  
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 15-25 MPH...AND TEMPERATURES THAT  
MAY NOT CLIMB FOR OUT OF THE UPPER 30S ON MONDAY. THERE IS A BIT  
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT  
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STUBBORN STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE DAY  
MONDAY...BUT OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE CLOUDIER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.  
THIS WOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF  
GUIDANCE AS WELL...SO THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW  
FORECASTS.  
 
BY TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT  
APPROACHING TROUGH...AND QUICK PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS  
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MERCIFUL RECOVERY FROM THE COLD TEMPERATURES  
MONDAY TO BACK AROUND NORMAL TUESDAY. FROM THIS POINT UNTIL THE END  
OF THE WEEK THERE IS LITTLE WORTH MENTIONING...AS NEAR NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH LITTLE  
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME NEITHER DAY LOOKS PARTICULARLY  
THREATENING.  
 
FIRE WEATHER...  
 
WARM /HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE/...DRY /RH VALUES DIPPING TO  
8 TO 15 PERCENT/ AND BREEZY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH WHERE  
RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND AN FIRE  
DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM. WINDS WILL QUICKLY  
DECREASE...TEMPERATURES FALL AND RH VALUES RISE AROUND SUNSET  
BRINGING AN END TO ANY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A SIMILAR DAY WILL  
UNFOLD AGAIN TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER  
LIKELY AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY AGAIN NEED FOR SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
FRIONA 32 79 41 72 17 / 0 0 0 0 0  
TULIA 38 78 41 72 20 / 0 0 0 0 0  
PLAINVIEW 34 77 41 73 22 / 0 0 0 0 0  
LEVELLAND 37 77 40 73 23 / 0 0 0 0 0  
LUBBOCK 41 76 40 74 24 / 0 0 0 0 0  
DENVER CITY 37 75 39 73 28 / 0 0 0 0 0  
BROWNFIELD 36 76 38 73 27 / 0 0 0 0 0  
CHILDRESS 37 80 43 73 26 / 0 0 0 0 0  
SPUR 43 74 42 74 25 / 0 0 0 0 0  
ASPERMONT 42 74 45 74 29 / 0 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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