209  
FXUS64 KLUB 291101  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
601 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015  
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 340 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
WEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE WHICH HAS MADE FORECASTING CONVECTION NOT SO FUN. WV SHOWS NO  
OBVIOUS HINTS OF SHORTWAVES NEAR THE FA BUT DOES SHOW DEEP MOISTURE  
IN AND AROUND THE RIDGE. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER THE  
LAST SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS OUR  
SOUTHWESTERN ROW OF COUNTIES...HOWEVER THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TOO  
SMALL TO PRODUCE MORE THAN JUST A FEW ISOLATED DROPS. THIS BOUNDARY  
ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE GIVES OUR  
WESTERN THIRD COUNTIES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT IN WHICH 20 POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT.  
 
HEIGHT THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE  
BUILDS FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT CONVECTIVE  
DEVELOPMENT AND HELP WARM TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVER WHAT WE HAVE  
SEEN TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS HAS BEEN  
THE STORY LATELY IS ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE  
POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN PLACE.  
 
LONG TERM...  
SRN CONUS HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION  
ON THU AND FRI AS THE MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE  
AREA. NWP THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE HIGH WILL STAY OUT WEST  
FOR THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED. THE ECM AND NAM SUGGEST THAT A  
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AS THE RESULT OF  
TRAILING ENERGY FROM A LOW UP NEAR HUDSON BAY. AS IT HAS BEEN  
QUITE EASY TO GET PRECIPITATION GOING THIS SUMMER AND ANALYZING  
THE WAY THINGS HAVE GONE WITH LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTION...AM  
INCLINED TO TREND THIS WAY RATHER THAN THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION  
WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. AFTER SO MANY YEARS OF  
DRY WEATHER OUT THIS WAY...IT IS REFRESHING TO SEE THE RAIN COMING  
A BIT EASIER. PRETTY MUCH EACH DAY OF THIS WEEK-LONG FORECAST  
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWFA  
THOUGH A DRYING TREND CERTAINLY SEEMS TO SET IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DECREASE A FEW DEGREES LATE THIS WEEK BUT THEY  
WILL BE RIGHT BACK UP NEXT WEEK AS THINGS DRY OUT...AT LEAST  
TEMPORARILY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
FRIONA 86 66 87 65 / 40 40 20 10  
TULIA 89 69 88 67 / 30 30 20 10  
PLAINVIEW 90 69 90 67 / 20 20 10 10  
LEVELLAND 92 70 92 69 / 20 10 10 10  
LUBBOCK 92 72 92 70 / 20 10 10 10  
DENVER CITY 93 71 92 69 / 10 10 10 10  
BROWNFIELD 93 72 93 70 / 10 10 10 10  
CHILDRESS 98 75 96 73 / 10 10 10 10  
SPUR 96 74 96 72 / 10 10 10 10  
ASPERMONT 98 76 98 75 / 10 10 10 10  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
51/26/  
 
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