580  
FXUS64 KLUB 010443  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
1143 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015  
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z MOS HAS COME IN LINE WITH GRIDDED DATA IN SHOWING STRATUS  
ADVECTING NORTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE  
APPEARS TO BE TAKING THE LONG WAY AROUND THE SFC RIDGE SO ONLY  
FORECASTING A FEW CLOUDS TO SNEAK INTO KLBB TERMINAL...OTHERWISE  
VFR CONTINUES. STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL JET HAS DIMINISHED ON LATEST  
RUN BUT STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTY SW WINDS AS THE MORNING INVERSION  
BREAKS.  
 

 
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A QUIETER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS  
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MCS THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS  
MORNING LEFT THE ROLLING PLAINS FAIRLY STABLE WHILE THE SOUTH  
PLAINS SEES A BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. ALOFT...THE JET STREAM  
THAT HELPED INITIATE STORMS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA  
ALLOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO EXTEND EAST A BIT AS WELL.  
THIS HAS LIKELY RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN THREE-  
QUARTERS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM  
DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WHERE CU ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL  
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE  
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  
 
LONG TERM...  
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS TODAY...THEY  
WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS BEGINNING ON  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA  
WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST. HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST ON  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW  
SPREADING OVERHEAD. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF ANY FRONTS  
WILL HAVE AID IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE  
NORTHWEST FLOW LATER THIS WEEK. ANY FRONTS DO LOOK TO STALL OUT IN  
THE PANHANDLE BUT ANY MOVEMENT FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN  
IN MODELS COULD BOOST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH PLAINS.  
STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS FORMING EVERY EVENING WILL FURTHER INCREASE  
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.  
SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH AS ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR  
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.  
 
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL MIGRATE BACK EAST OVER THE WEEKEND  
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY SQUASH  
CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH WARMING  
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE WILL  
MOVE...IT COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO MONSOONAL LIKE CONVECTION FROM  
NEW MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
FRIONA 62 92 66 89 / 0 10 20 30  
TULIA 63 93 69 89 / 0 0 20 30  
PLAINVIEW 64 91 68 89 / 0 0 10 20  
LEVELLAND 66 93 67 91 / 0 0 10 20  
LUBBOCK 66 94 68 92 / 0 0 10 20  
DENVER CITY 64 93 65 92 / 0 0 0 10  
BROWNFIELD 66 93 66 92 / 0 0 10 20  
CHILDRESS 70 98 73 94 / 0 0 10 20  
SPUR 68 92 70 91 / 0 0 0 10  
ASPERMONT 69 96 72 95 / 0 0 0 10  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
24  
 
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