392  
FXUS64 KLUB 011748  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
1248 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016  
   
AVIATION
 
 
MAINTAINED VCSH AT KCDS THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY  
EDGES AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH CENTER OF RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD.  
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN  
LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH.  
 

 
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
RECENT MOIST AND UNSETTLED NORTHERLY FLOW FROM 700-500MB IS ON  
TRACK TO BECOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE TODAY. THIS FEAT IS THANKS  
TO A MID- LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHIFTING FROM EASTERN NM THIS MORNING  
TO NORTH TX BY TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AXIS OF  
DRYING/LOWER PWATS ALREADY EDGING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS  
MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS DRYING, A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH  
DAYBREAK IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BEFORE THIS ENVIRONMENT TRENDS  
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE UNDER DEEPENING SUBSIDENCE/RISING  
THICKNESSES. ON THAT NOTE, MAX TEMPS SHOULD FARE WARMER THAN THU  
WHICH IS BEST REFLECTED BY THE MAV.  
 
BY SUNSET, DEEPER SW FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH WILL TRANSPORT SUBTROPICAL  
MOISTURE OUT OF NM. THE RATE AT WHICH THIS MOISTENING DEEPENS IS  
QUITE BEARISH AMONG THE NON-NAM GUIDANCE. CONSIDERING THE NAM'S  
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BIAS, FEEL IT'S TOO GENEROUS WITH CONVECTIVE  
PRECIP LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR WEST, SO PRECIP CHANCES WERE PULLED. A  
MINOR FOUR CORNERS' TROUGH ARRIVING AFTER DAYBREAK SAT LOOKS TO  
IMPROVE OVERALL LIFT AND SATURATION, BUT UNTIL THEN MEASURABLE RAIN  
CHANCES ARE LESS THAN PRIOR DAYS.  
 
LONG TERM...  
THE AFOREMENTIONED FOUR CORNERS' TROUGH WILL SWING OUT INTO THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND HELP TO DRIVE A WEAK COLD  
FRONT INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE  
PULLED EAST THANKS TO THE DEPARTING TROUGH WHICH WILL HELP TO  
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL  
REMAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN DAYTIME HEATING  
RESULTS IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY LEVELS. CAPE VALUES ARE NOT  
EXPECTED TO BE DRAMATICALLY HIGH BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO  
SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. ADD IN THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND WE  
COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE, ALTHOUGH STILL ONLY ENOUGH TO  
WARRANT A LOW-END CHANCE, ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. TEMPERATURES  
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND  
ANY OTHER TEMPERATURE IMPACTS WILL BE DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW FROM  
STORMS. THE COOLEST DAY WILL BE SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES  
OVERHEAD, PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT THEIR GREATEST,  
AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
DECREASE STARTING ON THE 4TH OF JULY/INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE RIDGE  
RAPIDLY RESTRENGTHENS OVER NEW MEXICO. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE  
WILL THEN START TO SHIFT EAST TO OVER NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BY  
MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA BACK  
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS MAY KNOCK THE EDGE ON HIGH  
TEMPERATURES BACK A BIT BUT WE WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER  
90S. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHING  
BACK OVER THE AREA BY MID-WEEK WHICH MEANS THAT ISOLATED AFTERNOON  
AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. DEEP  
MIXING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN CLOUD BASES  
APPROACHING 10KFT BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AROUND THIS  
ALTITUDE FOR 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER A LARGE PART OF THE  
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP THE LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS IN  
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE FORECAST FROM SUPERBLEND  
BUT EXPECT THE COVERAGE/AMOUNTS TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD OR DOWNWARD  
AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND THE FORECAST BECOMES CLEARER.  
 
JORDAN  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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