567
FXUS64 KLUB 012328
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
628 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 624 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
- MUCH COOLER FRIDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
- GRADUALLY WARMING, BUT GENERALLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND IS SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. LOW
CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FA. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THIS MORNING. WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BEFORE
MIDNIGHT, CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLER
THAT WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING, AND THIS COLD FRONT IS A WEAK EARLY
SEASON FRONT (HIGHLY MODIFIED). CLOUD COVER WILL, HOWEVER, KEEP
HIGHS ON THE COOL SIDE FRIDAY WITH MOST OF THE FA REMAINING IN THE
60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE MAIN UPPER FLOW BY
SATURDAY AND WILL HELP TO FORM A VERY WEAK BLOCKING PATTERN AS AN
UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ONLY LAST
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH DISSIPATES. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S THROUGH MID WEEK EVEN AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY UPPER FLOW
MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SOME GUIDANCE, MAINLY THE NBM, HAVE
UPPER HIGHS REACHING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN (NORTH TO NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW AND WEAK COLD FRONT) WOULD MORESO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER SUNSET, WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT
BOTH KLBB AND KPVW (AND POTENTIALLY KCDS AS WELL) BEGINNING AFTER
06Z. CURRENTLY, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 KT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME -SHRA
OR -DZ WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ESSENTIALLY ANY POINT AFTER 06Z, BUT
WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF FOR THE TIME BEING GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ021-027.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...30
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