087  
FXUS64 KLUB 091725  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
1125 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016  
   
AVIATION
 
 
SLIGHTLY BREEZY THIS AFTN FROM THE W/NW WITH WINDS LAYING DOWN  
EARLY EVENING. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 550 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/  
 
AVIATION...  
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20 KTS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
MORNING LOWS SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOW 20S AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE  
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOTTOM FROM FALLING OUT...GIVING A HEAD  
START TO TODAYS HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOCATIONS  
REACHING 70. RELATIVELY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE  
MID MORNING BECOMING BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SOUTH  
PLAINS WILL SEE WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 MPH BY MIDDAY  
TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR  
SOUTH...WHILE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WE WILL SEE MORE  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO INCREASED NW FLOW  
ALOFT FROM A STRONG JET STRETCHING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. AS A RESULT AN AREA OF INCREASED  
CONFLUENT FLOW MAY DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO  
THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS  
STRUGGLED WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS OF LATE AND SB OUTPUT WAS TOO  
HIGH...EXPECT VALUES 5-10 DEGREES LOWER ESPECIALLY IN THE ROLLING  
PLAINS AS CHILDRESS DEWPT DROPPED BELOW ZERO MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
WINDS WILL EASE AROUND SUNSET WITH NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE  
LOW 30S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY WORKS IT  
WAY EAST WITH INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY IN  
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR EAST IN OKLAHOMA HELPING  
TEMPS CLIMB ANOTHER 10 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S.  
 
LONG TERM...  
RATHER BENIGN PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED AS A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN  
TROUGH KEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY FLATTEN AS  
IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD EARLY THIS WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST  
QUESTION MARKS IN THE LONG TERM REVOLVE AROUND TIMING AND STRENGTH  
OF THE OCCASIONAL COLD FRONTS THAT WILL DROP THROUGH THE SOUTH  
PLAINS.  
 
AS ALLUDED TO IN THE SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE WARM  
SIDE AS BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS PROPEL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL  
INTO THE 70S. A FEW LOWER 80S COULD EVEN MIX IN OFF THE CAPROCK. A  
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN BACKDOOR THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY  
AS A SURFACE RIDGE SPILLS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS  
FRONT WILL BRING A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT AND KNOCK HIGHS DOWN  
INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE MODEST COOL DOWN WILL BE  
SHORT- LIVED AS DOWNSLOPE BREEZES QUICKLY RETURN FRIDAY AND HIGH  
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. A  
COLDER/STRONGER SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN DROP INTO THE CENTER OF THE  
NATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WEST TEXAS WILL AGAIN ONLY SEE A  
GLANCING BLOW...BUT IT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DROP HIGHS INTO  
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S OFF THE CAPROCK WHILE HIGHS EDGE DOWN INTO  
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S FURTHER TO THE WEST.  
 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW SOMETIME ON SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE  
TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMERGING ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE LATEST ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH THIS  
DISTURBANCE WHICH WOULD BRING THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AND  
TEMPER THE POTENTIAL WARMING TREND THAT THE SLOWER GFS SUPPORTS. FOR  
NOW WE HAVE STUCK TO THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH UNTIL THE NWP  
CAN SORT THE TIMING ISSUES OUT. IF THE SLOWER GFS WERE TO BE  
REALIZED A BRIEF RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS COULD  
OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH OTHERWISE ONLY OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF  
HIGH CLOUDS APPEAR IN THE OFFING FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE  
EXTENDED. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING OF THE LATE WEEKEND  
FROPA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
OVERALL...THE BLENDED GUIDANCE HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE  
FORECAST...THOUGH DEWPOINTS WERE TRIMMED BACK THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
EXTENDED AS NWP HAS GENERALLY BEEN TOO HIGH THROUGH THIS RECENT DRY  
SPELL. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME WIND SPEEDS WERE INCREASED ON WEDNESDAY  
MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z MOS GUIDANCE.  
 
FIRE WEATHER...  
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING MID MORNING TODAY  
WITH SPEEDS SUSTAINED AT 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH. WITH NO RECENT  
RAIN...DRY FUELS AND HIGH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WE WILL  
SEE ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THE SOUTHERN  
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE AN AREA OF  
CONFLUENT WINDS MAY INCREASE SPEEDS FURTHER BY MID AFTERNOON. WINDS  
EASE AROUND SUNSET BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN MOST LOCATIONS.  
 
HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL  
CREATE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 70S /AND PERHAPS LOWER 80S/ WILL  
RESULT IN RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.  
CURRENTLY IT APPEARS WINDS WILL BE ON THE MARGINAL  
SIDE...SUSTAINED IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...BUT IF THE PROGGED  
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH COULD BE  
WARRANTED. ATTM...WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A SOLID FIRE DANGER  
STATEMENT DAY AND IT COULD VENTURE INTO RED FLAG TERRITORY IF  
WINDS INCREASE ABOVE WHAT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
07  
 
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