062  
FXUS64 KLUB 310954  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
454 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
ALL TREATS AND NO TRICKS FOR THIS HALLOWEEN DAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING  
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH NEAR  
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BATTLE THE COOL SURFACE RIDGE FOR  
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIKELY  
WIN OUT KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A  
THREAT FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OFF THE  
CAPROCK IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE RIDGE. WE WILL SEE AN  
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING  
WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH. IT IS UNCLEAR ON  
WHETHER THE CLOUDS WILL BE TOO LATE TO PREVENT A FREEZE FROM  
OCCURRING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS ON THE HORIZON WITH LITTLE DISAGREEMENT  
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST FEATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK ARE QUITE  
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE ALLOWED US TO RAMP SHOWER CHANCES  
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR WHAT APPEARS THE MOST PROMISING PERIOD OF RAIN  
CHANCE...LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN  
ZONES. FOLLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE PASSAGE SATURDAY WE WILL ENTER AN  
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A  
SLOWLY APPROACHING LONG-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE WESTERN U.S. AND  
LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY  
TUESDAY. AN EJECTING WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY APPEARS  
CAPABLE OF ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A LOW CONDITIONAL THUNDER CHANCE  
SUNDAY AND IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHANGES FOR THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD  
IN ADDITION TO THOSE HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES LATER MONDAY AND EARLY  
TUESDAY.  
 
THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS TUESDAY INITIALLY LOOKS TO BE INCREASINGLY POSITIVE TILTED  
AS NORTHERN STREAM DEAMPLIFIES AND ACCELERATED...THUS SHOULD LEAD  
TO NOTABLE DRYING WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...STARTING TUESDAY WE HAVE  
LESS SOLUTION SIMILARITY WITH HOW LOW PRESSURE CUTTING OFF ON THE  
SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEHAVE. THIS MORNINGS TRENDS  
INDICATE MODEST SIMILARITY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO  
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN EASTWARD DRIFT TOWARDS OUR  
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH LARGE SOLUTION  
SPREADS EXIST...THE IDEA OF A WEAK APPROACHING UPPER LOW LOOKS  
SUPPORTED ENOUGH FOR A LOW MENTION FOR SHOWERS. WE ARE NOT WILLING  
TO ADD MORE THAN THAT JUST YET GIVEN THE PHASING PROBLEMS WEVE  
BEEN SEEING WITH THIS PATTERN BETWEEN THE ACTIVE AND DEAMPLIFYING  
NORTHERN STREAM AND A CUTOFF SLOWER SOUTHERN STREAM. STILL...THE  
INTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS MID-WEEK WAS THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE FOR  
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. RMCQUEEN  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
FRIONA 61 33 63 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 10  
TULIA 61 33 62 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 20  
PLAINVIEW 61 33 62 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 20  
LEVELLAND 63 34 64 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 20  
LUBBOCK 64 35 63 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 20  
DENVER CITY 64 36 65 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 20  
BROWNFIELD 64 36 65 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 20  
CHILDRESS 62 34 61 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 20  
SPUR 64 35 63 46 70 / 0 0 0 0 10  
ASPERMONT 65 36 63 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 10  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
01/05  
 
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