698  
FXUS64 KLUB 162007  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
307 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE MOST OF  
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWN RAP ANALYSIS. THE DECAYING MCS FROM  
OVERNIGHT THAT GAVE SOME OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SOME DECENT RAIN  
HAS FLOATED INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OK, WHERE IT'S BEGINNING TO FIND SOME  
REJUVENATION. STORMS HAVE BEGUN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NM AND  
SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS TX LATE THIS EVENING. AS FOR THESE  
AFFECTING OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH IN  
THE AMARILLO AREA LOOK TO MOST LIKELY BE THE BENEFACTORS, THOUGH A  
BIT OF THE COMPLEX MAY HOLD ON TO IMPACT SOME OF OUR NORTHERN  
COUNTIES.  
 
FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION ONE MORE  
TIME. ONE CAVEAT, SHOULD OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES GET RAINFALL  
AGAIN TONIGHT, THE FORECASTED HIGHS IN THIS PACKAGE MAY NEED TO BE  
PULLED DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO THANKS TO THE MOIST GROUND FROM LAST  
NIGHTS' COPIOUS RAIN. NOW, BACK TO THE HIGH. ALL MODELS, SAVE THE  
ECMWF, HAVE THE HIGH EXPANDING BACK ACROSS OUR REGION ALONG WITH  
A HIGH AT H700. YET, SEVERAL CAMS WANT TO CONVECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON  
IN OUR FORECAST AREA. IT'S A HARD SELL. DECIDED TO PULL POPS DOWN  
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE BLEND OUTPUT UNTIL THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT  
HOURS AS THE HIGH RETREATS AND CONVECTION FROM NM CAN DRIFT INTO  
THE REGION. WITH THE RETROGRADING HIGH, WEAK NW FLOW MAY DEVELOP  
ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN. BY SUNDAY, A FRONT  
PUSHES THROUGH, AND MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW THE BEST RAIN  
CHANCES FROM IT MAY BE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE  
FORECAST AREA, WITH DEEPER RAIN DEVELOPING SOUTH OF US.  
 
BY NEXT WEEK, MODELS BEGIN TO PART WAYS A BIT TOO MUCH TO PUT MUCH  
VALUE IN HIGH POP FORECASTS. AN EXAMPLE, THE GFS PULLS A FRONT  
THROUGH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO RAIN BUT WITH A GLANCING BLOW  
OF NW FLOW STORMS THAT NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE EURO BRINGS THE  
FRONT IN THE NEXT DAY WITH QUITE A BIT OF RAIN. IT SEEMED A BIT  
AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME TO KEEP WITH THE HIGH POPS OF THE BLEND NEXT  
WEEK WITH TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY, SO THIS PACKAGE INCLUDES LOWERED AND  
SMOOTHED POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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