510  
FXUS64 KLUB 271749  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
1149 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015  
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS MAY BECOME A BIT BREEZY THIS  
AFTERNOON THOUGH NOTHING ATYPICAL OF WEST TEXAS.  
 

 
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
ANOTHER WARM LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS NARROW HIGH  
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN  
GREAT BASIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE  
GRADIENT...ENOUGH DOWNSLOPING TO GENERATE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES  
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD HIGHS AND VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS  
VALUES. SEEING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM  
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INHIBIT  
GOOD INSOLATION. BUMPED MOS GUID MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES AT  
CHILDRESS AS MACHINE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL WITH THIS PATTERN.  
WINDS RETURN TO W/SW LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THAT  
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN KEEP MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.  
JAMES  
 
LONG TERM...  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMISES A LARGE SCALE PATTERN  
CHANGE OVER THE CONUS...ALTHOUGH THE AMPLIFIED THEME OF LATE WILL  
REMAIN LARGELY UNDISTURBED. STOUT UPPER RIDGE NOW TRAVERSING THE  
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES WILL COLLAPSE BY 12Z WED AS A TROUGH TRACKS  
OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH  
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WED AFTN...SO WITH A FLATTENING OF THE  
RIDGE AND STRONGER WESTERLIES OVERSPREADING OUR DOMAIN AHEAD OF  
THE FRONT...MAX TEMPS WERE RAISED CONSIDERABLY TO BETTER MATCH  
THIS REGIME. MET GUIDANCE IS BATTLING AN OBVIOUS HEAD COLD AS  
EVIDENCE BY ITS STREAK OF COOL DAYS LATELY...SO WE/VE GIVEN THE  
NOD TO THE TOASTY MAV AND BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS.  
 
FOLLOWING FROPA LATE WED AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THU...THE  
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A LOWER LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE SWRN  
CONUS. GFS SEEMS TO BE EXHIBITING ITS OLD FAST BIAS WITH THESE  
DEEPER WAVES WHEREAS THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF APPEARS MORE  
CREDIBLE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NEUTRAL TILT TO THIS TROUGH BY THU  
NIGHT AND DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES OVER WEST TEXAS. IN LIGHT OF  
MEAN RIDGING OVER WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WOULD EXPECT TOP-DOWN  
SATURATION AND LIFT TO FACE MORE RESISTANCE UNTIL THE RIDGE AXIS  
DEPARTS ON FRI OPENING THE FLOODGATES TO DEEP MOISTURE AND  
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS PATTERN OF SUSTAINED SW FLOW  
AHEAD OF A RELATIVELY DEEP AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH FITS THE BILL  
FOR A REGIONAL PRECIP EVENT...ESP BY FRI NIGHT WHEN ASCENT IS  
MAXIMIZED. POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELIES LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT  
BEFORE THE INEVITABLE DRY SLOTTING ARRIVES LATE SAT MORNING/AFTN.  
 
PRECIP PHASE IS STILL OPEN TO SOME SNOW AT TIMES ON THE CAPROCK...  
BUT A LACK OF APPRECIABLE COOL AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH  
OVERWHELMINGLY MILD SW FLOW ALOFT POINTS TO A MOSTLY LIQUID  
EVENT WITH SNOW ACCUMS SERIOUSLY HAMPERED BY MILD 2M TEMPS.  
NONETHELESS...INITIAL WET BULBING LATE THU INTO FRI SHOULD OPEN  
THE DOOR TO SOME SNOW WITH A SLIM SHOT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW BY  
LATE SAT AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. MOISTURE  
DEFICITS BY SAT NIGHT HOWEVER APPEAR MORE SERIOUS FOLLOWING THE  
DRY SLOTTING EARLIER THAT DAY...SO POPS WERE KEPT LOW SAT NIGHT.  
 
SAT NIGHT...THE TROUGH/LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO  
PIECES LEAVING A BROAD POSITIVE TILT TROUGH MOVING SE ACROSS THE  
SRN GREAT PLAINS. GFS STILL WANTS TO CLOSE OFF THE SRN END OF THIS  
TROUGH ACROSS NWRN MEXICO BY SUN BEFORE SCOOTING THIS DEEPER LOW  
EAST...THOUGH THE ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN ARE LARGELY AGAINST THIS  
WHICH IS HOW WE/LL LEAN FOR NOW. DRY NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS  
TROUGH SHOULD CLOSE OUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS LONG TERM PACKAGE  
WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
FRIONA 70 40 70 34 / 0 0 0 0  
TULIA 73 42 73 37 / 0 0 0 0  
PLAINVIEW 72 42 73 37 / 0 0 0 0  
LEVELLAND 73 40 75 37 / 0 0 0 0  
LUBBOCK 73 41 77 39 / 0 0 0 0  
DENVER CITY 73 42 76 39 / 0 0 0 0  
BROWNFIELD 74 41 76 39 / 0 0 0 0  
CHILDRESS 79 46 80 43 / 0 0 0 0  
SPUR 77 44 79 43 / 0 0 0 0  
ASPERMONT 77 43 80 43 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
99/99/26  
 
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