030  
FXUS64 KLUB 262016  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
316 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM 300-250 MB EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN TX  
PANHANDLE SOUTHWEST TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS  
REMAINED MORE RESILIENT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, MAINLY OVER THE  
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN WHERE NUMEROUS DIURNAL STORMS ARE NOTED. THIS  
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STRIDES INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST  
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THERE IS AN OBVIOUS INSTABILITY  
VOID/LACK OF CU EVIDENT NORTH OF THESE AREAS WHICH SHOULD GREATLY  
HINDER PROGRESS OF THESE STORMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82. FARTHER WEST,  
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION SUPPRESSED TO  
MOSTLY STABLE CU, BUT HAVE INSERTED A BROAD MENTION OF ISOLATED  
STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WATER VAPOR REVEALS ADDITIONAL LIFT AND RE-  
MOISTENING UPSTREAM WITHIN ADDITIONAL CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS FLOW  
SHOULD FLATTEN AND TREND A BIT MORE ANTICYCLONIC ON SAT, BUT WITH  
SUCH NEGLIGIBLE HEIGHT RISES IT APPEARS THAT LINGERING MOISTURE AND  
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES COULD EASILY ENCOURAGE SPOTTY STORMS. UNLIKE  
RECENT DAYS, LESS INTERFERENCE FROM LOW TO MID CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW  
FOR WARMER MAX TEMPS ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK.  
   
LONG TERM
 
 
HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL STAY PRETTY MUCH IN-PLACE  
DURING THE INITIAL EXTENDED THROUGH IT'S WESTWARD REACH WILL  
VARY AND SHIFT WESTWARD LATE NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH WILL EXIST,  
SUNDAY MORNING, FROM NRN MB INTO THE DESERT SW. A WEAKNESS IN THE  
HIGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
THIS WILL PLACE US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, BY MONDAY, WE'LL SEE RIDGING BUILD  
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AS THE THE TEXAS LOW HANGS AROUND SOUTH  
TEXAS. THE SOUTHEASTERN HIGH WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK AND SIT THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE  
EXTENDED.  
 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY CONTINUE TO DISPLAY INDICATIONS OF SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SUNDAY BEING A BIT MORE FAVORED AT  
THIS POINT THANKS TO FAVORABLE JET MAX POSITIONING TO OUR NW. ALL  
IN ALL, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE MUCH TOO WET IN TERMS OF  
COVERAGE THOUGH THE GENERAL TREND TOWARD FAVORING STORMS IN THE  
AREA IS ON POINT. PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED ACROSS THE CWFA JUST  
ABOUT EVERY 6 HOUR PERIOD. WE WILL SEE OUR WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO  
THE EAST WHICH SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLENTIFUL. IN  
ESSENCE, WE WILL SEE SURGE AFTER SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR  
ADVECTING INTO WEST TEXAS. GIVEN THE WEAKLY FORCED NATURE OF THE  
CONVECTION AND ITS DEPENDENCE ON DAY-TO-DAY AFFECTS WHICH ARE  
INHERENTLY NOT HANDLED WELL BY GUIDANCE, WILL CONTINUE TO  
ADVERTISE LOW TO MODERATE POPS THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DRYING  
THEREAFTER AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
93/26  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page