671  
FXUS64 KLUB 240527  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
1227 AM CDT TUE OCT 24 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR, DRY, AND MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN.  
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE MID MORNING TUESDAY, THEN BACK  
OFF AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 623 PM CDT MON OCT 23 2017/  
 
AVIATION...  
NORTHEAST WINDS TO RELAX AND BACK TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING BEFORE  
INCREASING AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON OCT 23 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ITS WAY THROUGH THE FA AND  
STRETCHES ALONG A LINE FROM PLAINS TO O'DONNELL. WIND DIRECTION WILL  
BE AFFECTED VERY LITTLE AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALREADY SHIFTED  
THE WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL  
BE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO  
AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP A FEW  
DEGREES ONCE THE FRONT HAS PASSED. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE TO  
THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE BY THE EVENING. CONTINUES NORTHERLY WINDS AND  
SLIGHT (NOT STRONG BY ANY MEANS) CAA WILL HELP KEEP TOMORROW ROUGHLY  
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.  
 
A SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY WEDNESDAY  
MORNING BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BACK INTO THE FA  
ALLOWING A TEMPORARY WARM UP AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD  
FRONT. THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BE THE STRONGEST SO FAR THIS SEASON AS A  
H500 RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SIT ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST WHILE  
AMPLIFYING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN AK. THIS WILL GIVE A NEAR  
MERIDIONAL FETCH OF COLDER AIR FROM NORTHERN CANADA AND THE AK  
INTERIOR WHERE TEMPS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM BELOW 0 TO THE LOW 20S.  
THE LACK OF A SNOW PACK IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN CONUS  
WILL ALLOW FOR AIRMASS MODIFICATION BUT WILL STILL BE ON THE COLD  
SIDE NONETHELESS. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET TO SUB-FREEZING ACROSS  
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING BY WAY OF CAA. SATURDAY  
MORNING TEMPS WILL BE MORE OF A CHALLENGE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN  
UP AND DOWN WITH LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE CURRENT RUNS  
COMING COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN. TODAY'S FORECAST WILL KEEP LOWS  
BELOW RAW MODEL GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO 32  
ACROSS THE WHOLE FA. FACTORS THAT WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT HOW COLD OR  
WARM TEMPS WILL BE ARE: 1) CLOUD COVER AND 2) PLACEMENT OF THE  
SURFACE HIGH. PREVIOUSLY MODELS WERE GOING GANG BUSTERS WITH  
PRODUCING POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THUS LEAVING CLOUD COVER  
LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE SINCE  
DRIED OUT (AS WE HAVE NO POPS LEFT IN THE FORECAST) AND ARE ALSO  
CONTINUE TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER RUN TO RUN. THE PLACEMENT OF THE  
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEAR THE FA. IF THE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD AND  
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THEN TEMPS COULD BE  
MUCH COLDER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. IF THE RIDGE MOVES  
SOUTH OF THE FA THAT WOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST  
AND WOULD MAKE TEMPS WARMER THAN FORECASTED. MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE  
TEMP FORECAST SHOULD BE GAINED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.  
 
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY  
BRINGING SURFACE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM TEMPS BACK  
INTO THE 70S. THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST IS PROGGED TO  
DEAMPLIFY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
ALDRICH  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
99/99/05  
 
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