688
FXUS64 KLUB 091143
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
543 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
AVIATION
DRY AIR WORKING TOWARD KLBB WAS ABLE TO CLEAR SKIES AT KCDS.
HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS STRATUS SPREADING BACK
TOWARD KCDS. EXPECT THERE LOW CEILING WILL REMAIN VFR. CLEARING
SLOT THAT WAS WORKING TOWARD KLBB WILL NOT MAKE IT THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR CIGS CONTINUING. DO EXPECT CIGS TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS
AFTN.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 322 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/
SHORT TERM...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD THIS MORNING AS 180 KT 250
MB JET OVER FAR WEST TEXAS RACES EAST. THIS JET MAY ALSO BE AIDING
PERSIST FLURRIES OVER WRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...BUT WOULD EXPECT
THESE TO END EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT ATTM. BY
THE END OF THE DAY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO
MOVE OVER THE FCST AREA.
MAIN QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT
EFFECT ON HIGH TEMPS. 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DRY
AIR ERODING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE NERN ZONES BUT WITH SOME ROTATION
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE EAST ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE. IN
GENERAL EXPECT TO SEE THIS CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR AT LEAST MOST OF THE
AREA. ONLY QUESTION MIGHT BE ACROSS THE WRN ZONES WHERE CLEARING
LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE LAST. DESPITE SOME BONAFIDE SOLAR INSOLATION
LIGHT EASTERLY SFC FLOW WITH SFC RIDGING JUST OFF TO THE EAST WILL
PROMOTE A COOL DAY WITH PREVIOUS IDEA OF MID 30S NORTH AND LOWER 40S
SOUTH LOOKING GOOD.
LONG TERM...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS ADDITIONALLY CHANCES FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION MID-WEEK THIS WEEK.
THE UA LOW THAT WILL PROVIDE THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH THE NEXT SHOT
FOR PRECIPITATION WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA PER 09Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS PROJECTS THE LOW TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MEXICO/WEST TEXAS BY
THURSDAY...VERSUS THE SLOWER NAM BEING SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST
DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME-FRAME. WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE
FORMER SOLUTIONS AS GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONSENT WITH THIS
TEMPORAL SOLUTION. SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT ON WEDNESDAY AIDING TO FILTER IN MOISTURE...AS SOUNDING
PROFILES EXHIBITED A TOP-DOWN MOISTENING. MOISTURE WILL INITIALIZE
FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES. COMPLEXITIES REGARDING PRECIP TYPE BECOMES EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDING PROFILES...AS A WARM NOSE DEVELOPS IN THE 800-750MB
LAYER. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET. WILL HOWEVER KEEP IT RELATIVELY SIMPLE ATTM AS THE WARM
NOSE WILL LIKELY ERODE WITH TIME...AND WILL DISPLAY CHANCES OF
SNOW...OR RAIN AND SNOW MIX THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY CAVEAT WITH
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS IS THAT THE UA LOW TRACK HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WHICH COULD LIMIT OUR BEST PRECIP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL TREND TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION
BUT NOT RULING OUT CHANCES/SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH.
SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WILL BECOME FLATTENED AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND TOWARDS THE CWA ON SUNDAY.
THUS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF SHOWS A RELATIVELY WEAK
VORTMAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAID IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...INDUCING RATHER LIGHT QPF
VALUES ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS SOLUTION ALSO
DISPLAYS LIGHT QPF BUT THE ASSOCIATED VORTMAX IS A BIT STRONGER.
NOT SURE IF MENTIONABLE POPS ARE WARRANTED ATTM...THUS A CLOSER
LOOK AT FUTURE MODEL RUNS IS DESIRED. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CREATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FRIONA 35 21 38 27 41 / 0 0 10 20 40
TULIA 34 21 37 27 39 / 0 0 10 20 40
PLAINVIEW 36 21 37 27 40 / 0 0 10 30 50
LEVELLAND 40 24 38 28 40 / 0 0 10 40 50
LUBBOCK 39 23 37 28 40 / 0 0 10 30 50
DENVER CITY 42 25 39 30 40 / 0 0 10 40 50
BROWNFIELD 41 25 39 30 40 / 0 0 10 40 50
CHILDRESS 38 22 38 27 40 / 0 0 10 20 50
SPUR 40 24 39 29 40 / 0 0 10 30 50
ASPERMONT 41 25 40 29 39 / 0 0 10 30 50
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
07
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