271  
FXUS64 KLUB 271716  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
1216 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014  
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.  
RAIN/CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND  
INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.  
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO THE WEST OF BOTH TERMINALS  
TONIGHT BUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR -TSRA WILL EXIST NEAR BOTH  
TERMINALS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE GREATER AT CDS TOMORROW AFTER  
12Z WITH A CHANCE STILL POSSIBLE AT LBB. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF  
THE COVERAGE AND TIMING...PRECIP MENTION WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THIS  
TAF CYCLE WITH THE TAFS BEING UPDATED AS NEEDED.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 407 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING EARLY WED MORNING AS A  
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS OUT OF ERN NM INTO WTX. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY  
HAS BEEN MINIMAL THE PAST HOUR PER WTLMA BUT WE COULD SEE SOME  
ISOLATED WEAK T-STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX  
PANHANDLE WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. FOR THE REMAINDER  
OF TODAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A RICH SUBTROPICAL  
MOISTURE PLUME FOCUSED BY AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO COLORADO. WATER  
VAPOR IMAGERY NOT ONLY SHOWS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS  
MORNING....BUT SEEMS TO SHOW A ENHANCED SLUG OF MOISTURE ACROSS FAR  
WEST TEXAS INTO SC NM. THIS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A STREAM OF  
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE CWA...LIKELY MAXIMIZED OVER OUR WRN/NW  
ZONES. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE  
ACROSS OUR WEST/NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH  
AND EAST THIS EVENING. WHILE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY DRY IN THE  
ROLLING PLAINS...WE HAVE SEEN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN  
THIS AREA EACH OF THE LAST COUPLE AFTERNOONS AND CAN/T REALLY SEE A  
REASON THAT THIS WOULDN/T BE THE CASE TODAY. THE ONLY DOWNSIDE MAY  
BE THE EXTENSIVE MID-LVL CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A  
FEW DEGREES AND COULD DECREASE THE SURFACE INSTABILITY. BACK TO THE  
WEST....PROGGED QPF IS NOT OUTSTANDING IN THE MODEL REALM BUT GIVEN  
THE HIGH PWATS...RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...AND POSSIBILITY OF  
SOME TRAINING CELLS THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY  
RAIN ACROSS THE NW SPLNS INTO THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. QUITE A BIT  
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SO WE WILL LIMIT MENTION TO THE HWO.  
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWER  
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS SWERLY MID-LVL FLOW  
MAINTAINS THE MOISTURE FETCH AND PERIODS OF LIFT.  
 
LONG TERM...  
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY  
THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE SOME SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES OF RAINFALL  
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST MODELS RUNS HAVE COME IN LESS  
OPTIMISTIC ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THOUGH. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE  
IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN  
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME UPPER LEVEL  
DIVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.  
FURTHERMORE...AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL AID IN THE LIFT ON  
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND LINGER  
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT EXTENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE  
LOST BY FRIDAY MORNING RELYING ONLY ON THE FRONT AND ANY SURFACE  
CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1.5 CLOSE TO  
AN INCREDIBLE 2.0 INCHES AT CHILDRESS. CALCULATING A QUICK AND  
DIRTY AVERAGE GIVES ABOUT 175-200 PERCENT OR NORMAL. SLIGHTLY  
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BE SHORT LIVED  
WITH THICKNESS VALUES QUICKLY RISING AND GUIDANCE INDICATING  
TEMPERATURES BACK WELL INTO THE 90S NEARING 100 DEGREES OFF THE  
CAPROCK.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
FRIONA 61 87 58 87 61 / 40 30 30 30 20  
TULIA 65 87 62 89 63 / 40 30 30 30 20  
PLAINVIEW 65 87 63 89 64 / 30 30 30 30 20  
LEVELLAND 65 88 63 89 64 / 30 30 30 30 20  
LUBBOCK 69 90 66 91 67 / 20 30 30 30 20  
DENVER CITY 66 91 64 92 65 / 20 30 30 30 20  
BROWNFIELD 66 91 64 92 66 / 20 30 30 30 20  
CHILDRESS 72 91 69 91 70 / 20 40 40 30 30  
SPUR 68 93 66 93 67 / 20 40 40 30 30  
ASPERMONT 72 97 69 96 70 / 20 40 40 30 30  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
51/29/51  
 
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