205  
FXUS64 KLUB 220917  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
417 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
WHILE SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY INTO  
TONIGHT...THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS WANED. THUS WILL DROP THE FLOOD  
WATCH WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH  
MORE THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE DRY AIR INTRUSION BEHIND  
SUNDAY/S FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.  
WHAT IS LEFT OF ODILE SEEMS TO HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND SHOULD  
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE  
COMBINATION OF SUBTLE FORCING FROM ODILE/S LEFTOVER ENERGY AS WELL  
AS HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD  
THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION ON THE CAPROCK.  
THIS REDUCTION IN COVERAGE TO THE EAST WILL BE THE RESULT OF  
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OFF INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR  
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE WHILE REMAINING IN THE 60S WEST OF THE  
ESCARPMENT. WHILE AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINS FROM MORE INTENSE  
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF FLOODING  
CONCERNS...MID LEVEL DRYING WITH THE DECREASE IN FORCING WILL REDUCE  
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING.  
 
STEERING FLOW VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL  
PUSH ANY RESIDUAL ACTIVITY OFF TO THE EAST AND ULTIMATELY ALLOW IT  
TO DISSIPATE IN THE DRIER AIR. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE  
MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING AFTER HIGHS IN THE  
MID 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD SEE A CUT OFF LOW SCOOTING UNDER A HIGH  
AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH IN THE DAKOTAS. OUR FLOW WILL BE  
PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL TUESDAY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT  
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH RETROGRADES TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE HIGH  
WILL BECOME ELONGATED FROM BAJA TO MANITOBA AND BEYOND BY THURSDAY  
MORNING YIELDING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AS TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE PACIFIC  
COAST NEXT WEEKEND. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FORMS ONCE AGAIN  
OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY BEFORE PHASING WITH THE SOCAL LOW. ALL IN  
ALL...A PRETTY MESSY AND SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL SYNOPTIC PICTURE.  
 
OUR PATTERN IS QUITE WEAKLY FORCED INITIALLY THUS MAKING IT HARD TO  
NAIL DOWN EXACTLY WHERE THE BEST POPS WILL BE EACH DAY. AT THIS  
POINT...GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY OF THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS NWP  
DATA...WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH. THE THETA-E RIDGE IS THE BEST  
INDICATOR OF WHERE THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL EXIST. THETA-E  
FIELDS APPEAR TO BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES THOUGH THE  
MORPHOLOGY CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN. ALL IN ALL...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED  
OFF A FAIR BIT ON POPS WED AND THU. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS AND  
TREND ACCORDINGLY THOUGH AM HESITANT TO DRY THINGS OUT AS MUCH AS  
NWP SUGGEST GIVEN THE INTER- RUN INCONSISTENCY. AFTER THINGS DRY  
OUT..NEXT SHOT OF STORMS MAY COME INTO MONDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY  
FLOW MAY DEVELOP THOUGH THE GFS AND ECM DISAGREE ON THE SYNOPTIC  
PATTERN FOR US ATTM.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
FRIONA 77 57 81 56 81 / 50 40 10 20 30  
TULIA 78 57 82 58 83 / 30 30 20 20 20  
PLAINVIEW 77 59 80 59 81 / 30 30 20 20 20  
LEVELLAND 77 59 80 59 81 / 40 30 20 10 20  
LUBBOCK 77 61 80 61 81 / 30 30 20 10 20  
DENVER CITY 79 60 81 59 81 / 50 30 20 10 20  
BROWNFIELD 79 59 80 59 82 / 50 30 20 10 20  
CHILDRESS 82 61 86 63 87 / 10 10 20 20 20  
SPUR 81 60 84 61 84 / 20 20 20 10 20  
ASPERMONT 84 63 87 63 86 / 20 20 20 10 20  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
31/26  
 
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