200  
FXUS64 KLUB 212345  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
645 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2018  
   
AVIATION
 
 
BACK EDGE OF MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE ERODING FROM W-E  
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT N WINDS. PVW  
AND CDS MAY SEE A BRIEF SKIRMISH OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BY DAYBREAK,  
BUT THIS PROBABILITY REMAINS QUITE LOW.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 249 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS  
DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO THE MID 40S. CLOUD COVERAGE FROM WRAP  
AROUND MOISTURE IS PRETTY EXTENSIVE AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON  
THE COOL SIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD  
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.  
SURFACE RIDGING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND QUICKLY WITH  
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS BECOME  
MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY HELPING HIGHS WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER  
70S.  
 
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY,  
THOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD  
FRONT. THE GFS HAS THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON  
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS THE FRONT UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.  
THAT WOULD RESULT IN WARMER HIGHS ON TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS WOULD  
BE COOLER. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE EARLIER SOLUTION WITH HIGHS  
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NEAR FRIONA TO LOW 80S IN ASPERMONT. RAIN  
CHANCES CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ROLLING PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT  
WITH POPS 40-50% WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SIMILAR PATTERN  
SETS UP AGAIN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING A FRONT THROUGH  
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME DETAILS TO BE RESOLVED  
REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE PATTERN  
SEEMS TO FAVOR MORE RAIN CHANCES RATHER THAN WINDY PATTERN AND  
FIRE WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW WEEKS.  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
93  
 
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