269  
FXUS64 KLUB 011117  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
617 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016  
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR IS LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BACKED OFF A BIT ON ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A VERY  
WEAK SHORT WAVE IS DEPICTED IN MODELS COMING ACROSS THE AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ANY LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WEAK IF ANY AT  
ALL WITH NEARLY NEUTRAL HEIGHT CHANGES. LOWER LEVELS WILL SEE A  
STRONGER INFLUX OF THETA-E VALUES TODAY ON THE SOUTH PLAINS. MID  
LEVEL CLOUDS EXITING THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK  
INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS.  
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, LIFT WILL  
BE WEAK ENOUGH TO LIKELY PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT OR VERY SPOTTY  
DEVELOPMENT AT BEST.  
 
LONG TERM...  
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY JUST TO OUR WEST TONIGHT,  
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY, THEN MOVE EAST MONDAY AS A NEW ROUND OF  
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SOLUTIONS  
CONTINUE TO GENERATE A WEAK IMPULSE MAINLY EARLY SUNDAY ON THE  
EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS EDGING THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE  
EASTERN PANHANDLE. MOISTURE LEVELS OVERALL DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE  
BUT PERHAPS WORTH A VERY SLIGHT MENTION FOR THUNDER SUNDAY ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. A WARM DAY OTHERWISE  
SHOULD BE THE RULE.  
 
PRESSURE FALLS AND IMPROVING WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL GENERATE  
STRONGER BREEZES MONDAY. MAIN DYNAMIC ENERGY WILL CURVE FAR NORTH  
OF THE AREA WHILE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL IMPROVE ACROSS OUR  
AREA. ONE OF THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT INVOLVES HOW  
MUCH LOW LEVEL BACKING WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE  
HEIGHT FALLS AND AN APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. LATEST  
SOLUTIONS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK SO LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND THUS MEANINGFUL THUNDER CHANCES  
MONDAY NIGHT CERTAINLY ARE IN QUESTION. BUT STILL PROBABLY WORTH  
AT LEAST A MINIMAL MENTION AT THIS POINT AS THE DEEP FORCING  
PASSES OVERHEAD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE  
BETTER CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND A MORE SOLID CHANCE FOR  
THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ONCE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT CATCHES UP ON  
TUESDAY, THOUGH THERE MAY BE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN DRY AND WET  
BY THEN. PATTERN RECOGNITION AND ANALOGS STILL SUGGEST A SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM RISK IN THE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME-FRAME  
FAVORING EASTERN ZONES. WINDS SHOULD BE SOLIDLY BREEZY OR LOW END  
WINDY ON TUESDAY, AS H700 WIND MAXIMUM PASSES OVER THOUGH PERHAPS  
TOO EARLY IN THE TO LEAD TO STRONGER DAYTIME WINDS ON TUESDAY.  
 
DRY DEEP FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT  
MAY OR MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT FOR WEDNESDAY BUT LOOKS LIKE A  
BETTER PLUNGE OF COOL AIR BY THURSDAY. DRY AIR OTHERWISE WILL LEAD  
TO FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES RANGES. LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EVENTUALLY MAY IMPROVE BY NEXT WEEKEND  
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE, AND AS A SERIES OF  
WAVES MAY BE CROSSING THE ROCKIES IN BROADLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW.  
RMCQUEEN  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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