917  
FXUS64 KLUB 261721 AAB  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
1221 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015  
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
JORDAN  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 627 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/  
 
AVIATION...  
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A  
BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A  
DECREASING TREND TO VERY LIGHT WINDS BY 00 UTC/7PM. WINDS WILL  
COME AROUND TO THE SW THEN WEST TONIGHT.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
AT 230 AM...THE COLD FRONT WHICH SWEPT THROUGH WEST TEXAS YESTERDAY  
WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH DALLAS TO THE EAST AND SONORA TO THE  
SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO RELAX ACROSS THE  
SOUTH PLAINS AREA...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL  
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 4 AM OR SO. ALSO...IR IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND  
OF LOW STRATUS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TODAY...WE WILL SEE  
THE NORTH WINDS COME BACK UP BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE AS WE GET SOME  
INITIAL MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...BUT THE WIND WILL RELAX  
MID-MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. MODESTLY  
COOL NRLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. IT  
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY  
COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH THEN WEST. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE  
30S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.  
 
LONG TERM...  
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL LARGELY REMAIN UNEVENTFUL. LONG WAVE  
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EAST BY  
THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THIS  
WILL LEAD TO RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. MEXMOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE  
90S BY SUNDAY. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT  
WEEK WILL SEND A COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION BRINGING A BRIEF  
BREAK TO THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. ALTHOUGH BY THE TIME THE FRONT  
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK AND WE WILL STILL SEE  
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  
 
THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STILL INSISTENT ON A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH  
MOVING THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS  
SOLUTION DOES NOT AGREE WITH MUCH ELSE. THE ECMWF/GFSE/NAEFS SOLUTIONS  
GENERALLY SUPPORT A WEAKER WAVE WITH A POSITIVE TILT. THIS WILL  
LIKELY KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
FRIONA 61 35 74 42 / 0 0 0 0  
TULIA 62 37 74 42 / 0 0 0 0  
PLAINVIEW 62 36 75 43 / 0 0 0 0  
LEVELLAND 62 38 77 44 / 0 0 0 0  
LUBBOCK 62 38 77 45 / 0 0 0 0  
DENVER CITY 62 39 78 45 / 0 0 0 0  
BROWNFIELD 63 39 78 46 / 0 0 0 0  
CHILDRESS 66 42 76 46 / 10 0 0 0  
SPUR 63 41 77 47 / 0 0 0 0  
ASPERMONT 64 44 78 50 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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