100  
FXUS64 KLUB 241748 AAC  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
1248 PM CDT SAT JUN 24 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AT ALL THREE TAF  
SITES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT  
VFR MAY BE PREVAILING AT KLBB AND KCDS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  
THIS OPENS THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE  
TAF SITES BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO  
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR  
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALL THREE  
TERMINALS WITH CONTINUED LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS. UNCERTAINTY  
REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE AND ANTICIPATE SEVERAL  
AMENDMENTS AS CONDITIONS UNFOLD.  
 
JORDAN  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 811 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2017/  
 
UPDATE...  
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED FOR MOSTLY POPS WITH THE ONGOING SHOWERS  
AND ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING  
PLAINS. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS BEING DRIVEN BY A DEEP LAYER OF  
FRONTOGENESIS ANALYZED WELL BY MOST MODELS. ALTHOUGH MOST ACTIVITY  
WAS IN THE FORM OF RAIN ONLY, THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE ABOVE THE FRONTAL  
ZONE. THIS AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL DECREASE AND MOVE OFF EAST  
OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON ENDING THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2017/  
 
AVIATION...  
ALL THREE TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY HOVERING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS  
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY  
MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTH TEXAS. KCDS  
WILL EXPERIENCE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH MID MORNING  
WHILE KPVW CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR TO IFR IN THE WAKE OF THE  
ACTIVITY JUST TO THE EAST. EXPECT KLBB TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR  
THROUGH THE MORNING BUT CEILINGS COULD DROP INTO MVFR FOR SHORT  
PERIODS OF TIME IN THE HOURS SHORTLY BEFORE AND AFTER SUNRISE.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT FROM THE PANHANDLE  
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS PLAINVIEW TO  
GUTHRIE. IT APPEARS THESE STORMS ARE BREAKING OUT ALONG AN  
ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SOME MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN  
THE FORM OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FORCING SHOULD SHIFT  
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE ROLLING PLAINS FAVORED FOR  
SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION PAST 12Z. ANY SUBSIDENCE ON THE  
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE FORECAST AREA FAIRLY  
QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE MOIST  
ATMOSPHERE, COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND POTENTIAL FOR  
ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUE TO POINT TO ADDITIONAL RAIN  
CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY WITH SUNDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKING LIKE THE  
BEST POTENTIAL AFTER THIS MORNING'S ROUND. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL  
COLD ADVECTION TODAY AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT UPWARD  
POTENTIAL TO TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH AM NERVOUS GOING TOO COOL AS  
ANY BREAK IN CLOUD COVER THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO  
INCREASE PRETTY QUICKLY. WILL FAVOR THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS, BUT  
THE MUCH COOLER MET HAS POTENTIAL IF LOW CLOUDS HOLD FIRM ALL DAY.  
 
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE  
TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO BULGE EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RETURN THE AREA  
TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST UNTIL  
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
01/01/14  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page