684
FXUS64 KMAF 041938
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
238 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
DISCUSSION
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE...INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
WEST TEXAS NE TO THE MID MS VALLEY...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM EAST CENTRAL KS TO NE NM. MEANWHILE...AREA RADARS SHOW
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DEVELOPED INTO THE
PLAINS. 12Z KMAF RAOB CAME IN VERY UNSTABLE...W/SBCAPES APPROACHING
3500 J/KG...BUT W/WEAK MID-LEVEL LR/S AND HIGH WET-BULB ZEROES.
PWATS ARE OVER 150 PCT OF NORMAL...AND W/LIGHT WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW...HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...MOST OF
THE ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE W/LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...BUT AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA...W/MODELS CONSISTENTLY BRINGING IT THRU KMAF AT AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO STALL SW-NE ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY...BEFORE EXITING TO THE SE SUNDAY NIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT THEN
RESUMES...AND THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL BRING A SHORTWAVE AND
POSSIBLE MCS THRU THE NE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. BRIEFLY TOYED AROUND
W/ISSUING A FFA THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD PREFER DEEPER WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS TO AID IN COLLISION/COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND A
STRONGER LLJ. STILL ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTION.
TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TRICKY...GIVEN THE WEAK
FRONT...CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIPITATION...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS AND
850MB TEMP PROGS SUGGEST A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...LEANING CLOSER TO MET
NUMBERS THAN MAV. FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS BUILD THE RIDGE BACK
EASTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS/SE NM...FOR A BIG WARMUP BY MIDWEEK. GFS
TEMP FIELDS AND SOUNDINGS INCREASE 850MB TEMPS TO OVER 30C IN PLACES
BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST GUIDANCE MAY BE A LITTLE COOL.
IN GENERAL...WE STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING TX 73 90 67 89 / 20 30 20 20
CARLSBAD NM 71 91 68 91 / 40 30 20 10
DRYDEN TX 76 101 75 97 / 10 20 20 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 73 95 70 91 / 20 20 20 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 67 87 66 90 / 30 30 20 20
HOBBS NM 70 88 66 90 / 40 30 20 10
MARFA TX 65 87 63 88 / 30 30 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 73 92 67 90 / 20 20 30 20
ODESSA TX 73 92 67 91 / 30 20 30 20
WINK TX 76 94 69 95 / 30 30 20 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
01/44
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