756  
FXUS64 KMAF 200010  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
610 PM CST THU JAN 19 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF ISSUANCE  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS  
WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT BEFORE  
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 243 PM CST THU JAN 19 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
THE MAIN STORY THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE WIND. THERE IS AN  
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS  
PASSING OVER THE CWA WITH A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.  
HIGH WINDS IN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH ARE MIXING DOWNWARD RESULTING  
IN HIGH WINDS OVER THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. A HIGH WIND  
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS  
THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE  
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS, THE VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR, REEVES  
COUNTY, AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG  
WEST WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND WILL RESULT IN  
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE  
60S.  
 
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ON  
FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE RIGHT ON IT'S HEELS AND MOVE  
OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A LULL  
IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT BUT THEY WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY TOMORROW.  
HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SAME PLACES AS TODAY WITH WIND  
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE SURROUNDING PLAINS. HAVE DECIDED TO  
EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE  
GUADALUPE AND DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE IN  
INTENSITY EACH DAY WITH SATURDAY BEING THE STRONGEST. ANOTHER WIND  
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH EVENING FOR THE SAME  
LOCATIONS AS TODAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ACROSS MORE AREAS.  
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY.  
THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS THE PREVIOUS ONE  
DID AND ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  
THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE HIGH WINDS. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER  
TROUGH ON SATURDAY TO BRING IN INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN. IT APPEARS  
THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS AREAS ALONG THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN AND WEST OF THE UPPER TRANS PECOS. THE PERMIAN BASIN ONLY  
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR SATURDAY.  
THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN  
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COOLING SLIGHTLY. THE WINDS ON SATURDAY  
WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BUT STILL  
EXPECT HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT IS LIKELY THAT  
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT AS FAR EAST AS THE PERMIAN  
BASIN ON SATURDAY BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL  
IMPACT THESE WINDS.  
 
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER  
RIDGING BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES  
ENDING BY SUNDAY AND WINDS ACROSS THE AREA DECREASING IN INTENSITY.  
THE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT ON SUNDAY BUT  
THIS WILL HAVE MINIMAL AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY,  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP TO MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT  
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE  
OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING MORE STRONG WINDS OVER THE AREA.  
THESE WINDS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A PACIFIC FRONT SO TEMPERATURES  
ON TUESDAY WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL. AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT  
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH  
CONTINUES MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL  
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY BEING IN THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY.  
TEMPERATURES NEXT THURSDAY APPEAR TO BE COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. THE  
EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOOKING TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BIG SPRING 42 66 44 64 / 0 0 10 20  
CARLSBAD 43 62 43 59 / 0 10 20 40  
DRYDEN 41 72 47 71 / 0 0 10 30  
FORT STOCKTON 43 68 45 65 / 0 0 10 30  
GUADALUPE PASS 36 51 37 48 / 0 10 30 60  
HOBBS 39 60 40 58 / 0 0 10 30  
MARFA 30 60 33 52 / 0 0 20 50  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 43 66 44 63 / 0 0 10 20  
ODESSA 42 65 43 62 / 0 0 10 20  
WINK 41 67 42 63 / 0 0 10 30  
 

 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS  
OF EDDY COUNTY.  
 
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR EDDY COUNTY PLAINS.  
 
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM MST FRIDAY FOR EDDY COUNTY  
PLAINS.  
 
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR  
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.  
 
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR REEVES  
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54  
CORRIDOR.  
 
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ TO 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/  
FRIDAY FOR REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-VAN HORN AND  
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.  
 

 
 

 
 
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