927  
FXUS64 KMAF 230558  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
1258 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
OUTFLOW REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE  
AREA. MOST STORMS HAVE MOVED OFF BUT FST COULD STILL SEE SOME FOR  
A FEW HOURS. LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MVFR  
CIGS POSSIBLE.  
 

 
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
AFTER ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP BELOW  
NORMAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS, WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES  
AREAWIDE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS AFTERNOON, SIMILAR TO  
PREVIOUS DAYS, DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN  
TO DEVELOP, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS, AND ISOLATED STORMS FURTHER  
EAST ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR,  
AND ONLY MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AT BEST, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND  
GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED  
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS COULD ALSO  
EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO  
WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, ANOTHER  
ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING  
COLD FRONT, WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS  
PANHANDLE. THE MOST LIKELY OF SCENARIOS, ECHOED BY LATEST  
GUIDANCE, IS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE  
FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO, AND THEN PROGRESS  
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN  
PERMIAN BASIN. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH  
THESE STORMS WILL PROGRESS ONCE INTO THE AREA, AS TONIGHT'S LOW  
LEVEL JET WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK, AND IF THE STORMS BECOME COLD POOL  
DOMINATED, THE OUTFLOW MAY CAUSE STORMS TO DIMINISH IN THE  
VICINITY OF I-20 TOMORROW MORNING. THE FRONT LOOKS TO AT LEAST  
MAKE IT TO THE PECOS RIVER BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AND WHILE THERE  
EXISTS DISCREPANCY AMONG MODELS REGARDING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE  
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION  
WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON,  
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OR A FASTER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE  
FRONT COULD YIELD EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR A LARGER PORTION OF  
THE AREA, THOUGH WILL STICK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S  
NORTH AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INCREASING TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S  
THROUGH THE PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS. AND, WHILE SEVERE  
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.50"  
WILL MAINTAIN THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT, ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED  
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.  
 
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF  
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DUE TO A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM  
THAT IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT  
48 HOURS, AND EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE EAST TEXAS COAST. WHILE THE  
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE  
EAST OF THE AREA, THE AMOUNT OF WESTWARD PROGRESSION COULD MAKE A  
BIG DIFFERENCE IN BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE UPPER PATTERN  
LOOKS TO REMAIN AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH A RIDGE IN PLACE  
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, AND A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS  
THE EAST. IF A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE MANAGES TO DROP  
DOWN, IT WOULD ACT TO EJECT THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM  
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD LOUISIANA, WHILE ANOTHER POTENTIAL  
OUTCOME IS FOR THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM TO BECOME ABSORBED BY  
THE BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH, AND REMAIN FAIRLY SLOW-MOVING OVER  
EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WOULD YIELD  
MINIMAL IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA ASIDE FROM INCREASED GULF MOISTURE  
WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. IF  
THE STORM WERE TO ADVANCE FURTHER WEST, AND POTENTIALLY STALL OUT  
AS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES, THE AREA COULD BE AFFECTED BY  
SUBSIDENCE, YIELDING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE LACK  
OF AGREEMENT AND RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY, AND THE FACT THAT THE  
CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS ONLY NOW MAKING IT OFF THE YUCATAN  
PENINSULA AND OVER OPEN WATER, WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM THE  
GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THAT IS, TRENDING TEMPERATURES COOLER  
THROUGH SATURDAY, AND THEN MODERATING BACK TOWARD NORMAL LATE IN  
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BIG SPRING 71 89 70 87 / 30 30 30 50  
CARLSBAD 70 89 68 89 / 20 40 30 30  
DRYDEN 75 95 76 92 / 20 30 20 30  
FORT STOCKTON 70 91 70 89 / 20 30 20 30  
GUADALUPE PASS 64 81 64 81 / 20 40 30 30  
HOBBS 67 84 66 85 / 20 40 30 30  
MARFA 60 85 61 84 / 20 40 30 40  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 71 88 70 88 / 30 30 30 40  
ODESSA 70 88 69 87 / 20 30 30 40  
WINK 72 91 71 90 / 20 30 30 30  
 

 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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