628  
FXUS64 KMAF 282309  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
609 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF ISSUANCE  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND KFST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS  
AND MAY CAUSE SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE  
EXPECT VFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 231 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND UNDERWAY TODAY AND TOMORROW AS 850 MB  
TEMPERATURES INCREASE OVER THE REGION. A FAIRLY WEAK DRYLINE MIXING  
EAST THROUGH WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR A  
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNSET MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO  
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY  
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY. NOT EXPECTING  
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG,  
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE DRYLINE  
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND W/SW  
DOWNSLOPING WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL AID IN TEMPERATURES  
SOARING ABOVE 100 MOST LOCATIONS.  
 
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION  
FRIDAY AND PERHAPS SATURDAY AS WELL. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF  
ON BRINGING THE FRONT IN FRIDAY MORNING AND INSTEAD SHOWS THE FRONT  
ATTEMPTING A RUN AT FAR NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE STALLING THEN A  
SECOND, STRONGER PUSH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, LIKELY AIDED BY CONVECTION  
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THAT BEING SAID, HAVE MADE  
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND  
DECREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST  
AREA SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN SEEING ANY  
PRECIP WITH THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY IS DECREASING BUT WILL GO AHEAD  
AND LEAVE MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR NOW. THE FRONT IS  
FORECAST TO LIFT BACK NORTH SATURDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY  
WINDS AT THE SURFACE.  
 
BEYOND SATURDAY, THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS  
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. BEST CHANCES WILL BE EACH  
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN REGION WHERE UPSLOPE SE  
WINDS AND DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 90S MOS T  
AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BIG SPRING 71 102 75 103 / 10 0 0 10  
CARLSBAD 68 105 69 102 / 10 0 0 10  
DRYDEN 72 102 74 101 / 10 10 0 0  
FORT STOCKTON 72 105 74 105 / 20 0 0 10  
GUADALUPE PASS 71 96 71 95 / 10 0 0 0  
HOBBS 66 102 68 99 / 20 0 0 10  
MARFA 60 97 61 97 / 20 0 0 10  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 73 104 74 103 / 20 0 0 10  
ODESSA 72 104 74 103 / 20 0 0 10  
WINK 70 105 70 105 / 20 0 0 10  
 

 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
29  
 
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