668  
FXUS64 KMAF 262328  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
528 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS DIMINISHING  
TONIGHT, INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 245 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
WV IMAGERY SHOWS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW  
MEXICO, W/A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THRU AZ/NM. NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED  
TO COME OUT OF THIS EXCEPT NEAR-CRITICAL WINDS THRU THE GUADALUPES  
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, AS WELL AS RED FLAG CONDITIONS THERE.  
VARIABLE MID/HI CLOUDS, HOWEVER, SHOULD KEEP WINDS IN CHECK.  
 
HOWEVER, THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND  
WINDY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WA/OR BORDER OPENS, MOVES INLAND,  
AND ARRIVES HERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME  
INCREASINGLY SW, SETTING THINGS UP FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WX  
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR  
DETAILS.  
 
MONDAY, CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY, W/MODELS MIXING OUT  
TO ABOVE H8. THE FORECAST NAM MTN WAVE SIGNATURE IS A BIT STRONGER  
THAN TODAY, SO WE'VE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR  
MARGINAL HIGH WINDS IN THE GUADALUPES, AND ADVISORIES FOR THE  
ADJACENT PLAINS. TUESDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES, W/DOWNSLOPE  
WARMING PUSHING AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL-ABV NORMAL INTO THE 70S AND 80S  
MOST LOCATIONS. FORECAST NAM SOUNDINGS MIX TO AROUND H7 (40-50KTS)  
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHEREAS THE GFS MIXES TO H6 (55-65KTS). THE  
NAM MTN WAVE SIGNATURE IS EVEN STRONGER TUESDAY THAN MONDAY, AND H7  
HEIGHT GRADIENTS TIGHTEN TO OVER 60M/150NM. THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL  
HIGH WINDS NOT ONLY IN THE GUADALUPES, BUT ON THE ADJACENT PLAINS  
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MTNS DOWN SOUTH, AS WELL. THE ONLY  
VARIABLE IN QUESTION IS CLOUD COVER. MODELS FORECAST QUITE A BIT OF  
MID/HI CLOUD, EVEN W/THE DEEP MIXING. FOR NOW, WE'LL ISSUE A HIGH  
WIND WATCH FOR WESTERN ZONES.  
 
OTHERWISE, THIS ALL COMES TO AN ABRUPT END TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY  
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES, TAKING TEMPS DOWN TO BELOW-NORMAL  
WED-FRI. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS, W/TEMPS CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE-  
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS NON-EXISTENT THRU  
ALL OF THIS, SO GRIDS STAY DRY.  
 
FIRE WEATHER...  
 
AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE RETURNED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY,  
RHS HAVE PLUMMETED ONCE AGAIN, WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS  
GUSTING TO AROUND 45-50 MPH RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. THUS, THE RED FLAG WARNING  
FOR THAT AREA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z AS SCHEDULED. MONDAY  
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY DAY, WITH INCREASING WINDS AT  
BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HOWEVER, RHS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY  
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE  
DAVIS MOUNTAINS, WITH RHS IN SOME SPOTS REACHING 20-23%. ELSEWHERE,  
RHS AROUND 10-15% WILL BE COMMON. WHILE WINDS WILL INCREASE, THE  
STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN,  
DECOUPLED FROM THE LOWEST, CRITICAL RHS. BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD  
EXTEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND UPPER TRANS  
PECOS DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND COULD RESULT IN BRIEF, LOCALIZED  
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN  
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME, WILL HOLD OFF ON A  
WATCH, AS MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CANDIDATE FOR A FIRE DANGER  
STATEMENT.  
 
THE FOCUS REMAINS ON TUESDAY, AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB FURTHER ABOVE  
NORMAL AND WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AREAWIDE. POOR TO FAIR  
RECOVERY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL ENSURE CONTINUED DRYING OF  
AVAILABLE FUELS, AND GIVEN AFTERNOON RHS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON  
PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 15% FOR ALL BUT FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF  
THE AREA AND HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.  
 
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AS A COLD FRONT  
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED WINDS TO THE REGION,  
AND AFTERNOON RH VALUES IMPROVE TO THE 20-30% RANGE BY FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BIG SPRING 47 77 49 79 / 0 0 0 0  
CARLSBAD 42 73 49 76 / 0 0 0 0  
DRYDEN 53 85 52 87 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT STOCKTON 50 82 52 82 / 0 0 0 0  
GUADALUPE PASS 42 65 46 66 / 0 0 0 0  
HOBBS 39 71 45 72 / 0 0 0 0  
MARFA 36 73 37 74 / 0 0 0 0  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 47 77 49 79 / 0 0 0 0  
ODESSA 48 78 49 80 / 0 0 0 0  
WINK 42 78 44 80 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR GUADALUPE  
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.  
 
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUADALUPE  
MOUNTAINS.  
 
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR  
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.  
 
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR EDDY COUNTY  
PLAINS.  
 
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR  
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS.  
 
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR GUADALUPE  
MOUNTAINS.  
 
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUADALUPE  
MOUNTAINS.  
 
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR  
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.  
 
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING  
FOR DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-MARFA PLATEAU-REEVES COUNTY  
AND UPPER TRANS PECOS.  
 
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ TO 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/  
MONDAY FOR VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.  
 
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR  
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.  
 

 
 

 
 
99/99/10  
 
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