247  
FXUS64 KMAF 292330  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
630 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
STORMS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE SINCE 21Z AND HAVE LEFT A TEMPO  
GROUP IN FOR HOB UNTIL 01Z. A BOUNDRY MOVING S FROM THE LUBBOCK AREA  
MAY RESULT IN STORMS REDEVELOPING LATER, BUT FOR THE SHORT-TERM  
THE CAP ON 00Z SOUNDINGS LOOKS TO BE PRECLUDING STORMS. WE HAVE  
BROUGHT IN MVFR CIGS AT MAF AROUND 09Z.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES HAVE KEPT CONVECTION AT BAY SO FAR, BUT  
SATELLITE AND RADAR ARE SHOWING DEVELOPING SHOWERS IN THE  
GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS ARE MORE SCATTERED,  
BEGINNING A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL PRODUCE CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS  
OF 4000 J/KG AND COMBINED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-50KTS WILL ENSURE  
SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF INDICATE THE  
STORM TYPE WILL BEGIN AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS POSSIBLY FORMING A  
MULTICELL LINE SOMEWHERE IN THE PERMIAN BASIN BEFORE PUSHING EAST  
OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE  
POSSIBLE SO THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER  
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY GIVEN THIS IS A HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  
 
CONDITIONS SET UP MUCH THE SAME TOMORROW WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING LEADING TO A GREAT DEAL OF  
INSTABILITY. THE ONE THING LACKING WILL BE AN UPPER TRIGGER SO  
CONVECTION TOMORROW MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS EXPECTED  
TODAY, THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CERTAINLY EXIST. STORMS ARE  
EXPECTED TO MOVE FAST ENOUGH THAT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE  
ISOLATED TO A FEW CELLS EXHIBITING DEVIANT MOTION; HOWEVER, A  
LINEAR COMPLEX TODAY COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO INCREASE A  
MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT WEDNESDAY.  
 
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY THANKS TO A  
VERY SLOW MOVING LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL  
CONTINUE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT  
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A  
TRANSITION TO WEAKER CONVECTION. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE  
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL END RAIN CHANCES FOR  
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
HENNIG  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BIG SPRING 64 85 64 86 / 60 50 40 40  
CARLSBAD 63 93 63 94 / 20 20 20 10  
DRYDEN 69 88 68 89 / 50 40 40 30  
FORT STOCKTON 67 90 67 91 / 40 40 30 30  
GUADALUPE PASS 62 84 63 86 / 10 20 20 10  
HOBBS 61 89 61 88 / 30 40 20 20  
MARFA 56 85 55 85 / 20 30 30 20  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 66 89 67 90 / 50 50 30 30  
ODESSA 67 89 67 90 / 50 50 30 30  
WINK 67 93 66 94 / 30 40 20 20  
 

 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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