046
FXUS64 KMAF 091203
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
603 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
DISCUSSION
THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION HAS BEEN INCLUDED BELOW.
AVIATION
MVFR CEILINGS WITH BASES BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT AGL WILL PERSIST
ACROSS ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS HAVE REMAINED GREAT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS/INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 429 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/
DISCUSSION...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE WEEK. JUST HOW COLD REMAINS TO BE SEEN ALONG WITH HOW
MUCH WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. INITIALLY...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST AIR WAS
STILL IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND U.S.
PLAINS. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TODAY AS THE UA TROUGH
TO AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...AND A 170+KT H25 JET OVER MEXICO
LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE
REGION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET OVER THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS WHERE LIFT IN THE RRQ OF THE STRONG H25 JET WILL
RESIDE. THE AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH WILL FOLLOW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20. DESPITE GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE UA
TROUGH...THE LATEST WRF REMAINS SLOWER. THUS VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WERE YIELDING A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT AT VARIOUS TIMES. IN ADDITION...HOW
MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE HAD AT THE SURFACE IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO SHUNT THE COLD SURFACE RIDGE
EASTWARD. SO WHETHER WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN
OVER THE REGION IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE. HAVE KEPT FREEZING RAIN IN
THE FORECAST...BUT MAINLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL ONE
BELIEVES...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.
HOWEVER...AM NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ANY SORT OF
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. CONSIDERING ALL OF THE ABOVE...HAVE
DECIDED TO INCLUDE A WINTRY PRECIPITATION MENTION IN THE HWO...AND
WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
THE TROUBLESOME SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...
UNLESS OF COURSE IT SLOWS IT/S EASTWARD PROGRESS. FOR NOW...HAVE
KEPT POPS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON
THE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE TO THE ONEROUSNESS OF THE NEAR TERM.
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
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