031  
FXUS64 KMAF 242305  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
605 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF ISSUANCE  
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN GUSTY OUT OF THE SW THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 KTS AT KCNM. OTHERWISE EXPECT  
VFR CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 244 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY WITH THE RETURN OF SW WINDS AT  
THE SURFACE AND SUNNY SKIES. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO  
BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH NEARLY ZONAL  
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED. THE WARMING TREND WILL MAKE A HUGE JUMP  
THURSDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ADVECT VERY WARM 850MB TEMPS (NEAR  
30C) EASTWARD. ALONG WITH MODESTLY STRONG WEST, DOWNSLOPING WINDS AT  
THE SURFACE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SOARING INTO THE  
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 MOST AREAS. HIGHS 103+ ARE LIKELY FOR AREAS  
ALONG AND NEAR THE PECOS AND RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL  
BE SIMILAR THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ROUGHLY A DEGREE OR TWO  
COOLER... THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT MIDLAND INTL FOR MAY 25TH  
IS 105 AND AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS RECORD WILL REMAIN  
INTACT HOWEVER THE RECORD FOR MAY 26TH COULD BE IN JEOPARDY AS  
THE RECORD FOR THAT DATE CURRENTLY SITS AT 100. WINDY, DRY AND HOT  
CONDITIONS COULD POSE A FIRE WEATHER PROBLEM THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY...PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE  
DETAILS. HIGH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GUADALUPE  
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN ON  
FRIDAY. FOR NOW, WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA FOR  
THURSDAY.  
 
A SLIGHT COOLING (A DEGREE OR TWO) IS STILL EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE  
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE EDGE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD A BIT. A COLD FRONT IS  
EXPECTED TO BRING US SOME RELIEF ON SUNDAY MORNING, AND TEMPERATURES  
LOOK TO BE MUCH MORE REASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S/LOW 90S. THE  
AIR LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL  
PASSAGE AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY HOWEVER THERE MAY BE  
ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS SE ZONES FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL SEE SOME DECENT MOISTURE RETURN BEGINNING  
MONDAY WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE PERSISTING THROUGH  
MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE, A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE  
OVERHEAD WHICH MAY KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AND BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
FIRE WEATHER...  
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL AND EVEN SLIGHTLY SW OVER THE  
NEXT 24 HOURS AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST.  
THICKNESSES/TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER TODAY  
TO WELL-ABV NORMAL, RESULTING IN SINGLE-DIGIT RH MOST LOCATIONS  
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIX TO ABOVE 600MB ON  
AVERAGE, W/30-40KT WESTERLIES FORECAST, ESPECIALLY SE NM. THIS WILL  
BE COINCIDENT W/HIGH-VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER, AND RFTIS EXTREME-  
HISTORICAL. ALTHOUGH ERC IS BELOW NORMAL, INCREASED WIND FIELDS  
SUPPORT RED FLAG CRITERIA BEING EASILY MET THU AFTERNOON. THEREFORE,  
WE'LL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WARNING FOR SE NM AND VAN HORN/HWY 54  
CORRIDOR.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BIG SPRING 64 102 69 101 / 0 0 0 0  
CARLSBAD 62 101 67 98 / 0 0 0 0  
DRYDEN 62 101 71 102 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT STOCKTON 68 103 71 100 / 0 0 0 0  
GUADALUPE PASS 64 92 66 88 / 0 0 0 0  
HOBBS 59 98 64 95 / 0 0 0 0  
MARFA 51 94 57 93 / 0 0 0 0  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 65 102 69 100 / 0 0 0 0  
ODESSA 65 102 69 99 / 0 0 0 0  
WINK 62 104 68 100 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR GUADALUPE  
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  
 
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING  
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.  
 
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT  
CDT /11 PM MDT/ THURSDAY NIGHT FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-VAN  
HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.  
 
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING  
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.  
 

 
 

 
 
99/99/29  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page
The Nexlab NM Page Main Text Page