413
FXUS64 KMAF 072057
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
257 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA MX AND
SOUTHERN AZ. THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN INTO A WAVE AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST OF OUR CWFA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG STILL LOOK
FEASIBLE ACROSS LOCATIONS EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER THROUGH MID SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...SENDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT UPGLIDE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF
FOG AND DRIZZLE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE MUCH COOLER TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND ALSO WITH
THE CLOUD COVER STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
DEPTH OF THIS TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN QUESTION. CURRENT TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM...AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE BOTH DAYS...THEN FRONTAL PASSAGE POSSIBLE BY
SATURDAY. TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY
THE TROUGH WILL SWING EASTWARD. HAVE TRENDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WARM FOR NOW...AND LEFT A COOL FORECAST IN PLACE SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING TX 53 75 53 72 / 0 10 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 45 80 47 74 / 10 0 0 10
DRYDEN TX 53 74 54 75 / 20 20 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 54 80 53 76 / 10 10 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 51 72 49 69 / 10 10 0 0
HOBBS NM 49 77 49 70 / 0 10 0 10
MARFA TX 41 74 37 73 / 20 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 51 76 52 73 / 0 10 0 10
ODESSA TX 53 76 53 73 / 0 10 0 10
WINK TX 51 81 51 76 / 10 10 0 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
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