025  
FXUS64 KMAF 210454  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
1054 PM CST SAT JAN 20 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AND BECOME STRONG  
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 18Z WITH GUSTS REACHING 40-50KTS. THIS WILL  
CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO  
MVFR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.  
 
HENNIG  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 321 PM CST SAT JAN 20 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW  
ALOFT OVER THE CWA. THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WITH  
SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO  
DOWNSLOPE WARMING RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES THAT ARE MOSTLY IN THE  
70S THIS AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST 20 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH  
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE CWA. HIGH WINDS FROM THE  
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MIX DOWNWARD TOWARDS THE SURFACE. A TIGHT  
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. A  
HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GUADALUPE AND  
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS, VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR, SOUTHEAST  
NEW MEXICO, UPPER TRANS PECOS, REEVES COUNTY, AND THE WESTERN  
PERMIAN BASIN FOR SUNDAY. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, PECOS COUNTY, AND THE MARFA PLATEAU.  
PATCHY BLOWING DUST AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE  
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH  
THE AREA ON SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY WEST WINDS AND COOLER  
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE  
IN THE 50S AND 60S. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL WEAKEN BY MONDAY AS  
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY  
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY ON  
TUESDAY THEN COOL A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY AND WARM UP AGAIN THURSDAY  
AND FRIDAY. THE BASE OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE  
OVER THE AREA BEGINNING NEXT FRIDAY POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MORE  
STRONG WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NEXT  
SATURDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.  
 
FIRE WEATHER...  
 
WE HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE AND EXPAND THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG  
WARNING FOR SUNDAY. A WIND STORM IS EXPECTED BUT THERE ARE  
INDICATIONS THAT THE AIR WILL BE DRIER AND THUS THE UPGRADE AND  
EXPANSION. THE WINDS WILL BE THE BIG SHOW, HOWEVER FUELS DO MITIGATE  
GREATER CONCERNS. EVEN THOUGH WE EXPECTED FIRE DANGER TO BE HIGH-  
VERY HIGH INDICATIVE OF THE DRY GRASSES THE BIGGER COMPOSITE FUEL  
PICTURE IS NOT ALL THAT DRY, ERC VALUES HAVE NOT MOVED INTO ANY  
CRITICAL LEVELS INCREASED INITIAL ATTACK IS THE MOSTLY LIKELY  
OUTCOME. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND TURN NORTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BIG SPRING 42 61 32 57 / 0 0 0 0  
CARLSBAD 38 55 28 56 / 0 0 0 0  
DRYDEN 44 69 36 64 / 0 10 0 0  
FORT STOCKTON 43 59 34 56 / 0 0 0 0  
GUADALUPE PASS 33 44 25 47 / 10 0 0 0  
HOBBS 35 54 26 54 / 0 0 0 0  
MARFA 33 53 22 54 / 0 0 0 0  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 42 59 32 56 / 0 0 0 0  
ODESSA 41 58 31 56 / 0 0 0 0  
WINK 36 59 29 57 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SOUTHEAST  
PLAINS.  
 
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR GUADALUPE  
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.  
 
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL LEA  
COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA  
COUNTY.  
 
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TO 7 PM CST /6 PM  
MST/ SUNDAY FOR ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CRANE-  
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-  
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-  
PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-  
SCURRY-TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-  
WINKLER.  
 
HIGH WIND WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR BORDEN-CRANE-DAWSON-ECTOR-  
GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-  
PECOS-REAGAN-SCURRY-UPTON-WARD.  
 
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR GUADALUPE  
MOUNTAINS.  
 
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TO 6 PM CST /5 PM  
MST/ SUNDAY FOR ANDREWS-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-GAINES-  
LOVING-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-VAN HORN AND  
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WINKLER.  
 

 
 

 
 
99/99/10  
 
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