000  
FXUS64 KMAF 261930  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
230 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE  
COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR A  
BRIEF RELIEF FROM THE 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  
DESPITE THIS COOL DOWN, THERE IS STILL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN CWA. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 
AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON  
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  
THIS WILL CREATE POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS SO A  
HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY FOR THIS AREA. SURFACE WINDS  
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE  
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING  
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S ACROSS MOST OF WEST TEXAS  
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL NOT BE  
QUITE AS STRONG AS ON THURSDAY BUT OTHERWISE SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL  
BE PRESENT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND 90S.  
 
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE  
COUNTRY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON  
SATURDAY AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY  
NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY  
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE CLOSER SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY  
WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.  
 
A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME WEST TO  
SOUTHWEST AND THE PREVIOUS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.  
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP; OTHERWISE, NOT  
MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT WEDNESDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA  
BUT NO PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.  
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING THE REGION TODAY, HOWEVER WEST  
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER THREAT IN FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO  
TOMORROW. WINDS ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A QUICK  
HITTING COLD FRONT AND WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.  
THEN A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL  
INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS ENOUGH TOMORROW TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER.  
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BUT  
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE HUMIDITIES ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE THE  
FIRE DANGER THREAT AND PREVENT THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BIG SPRING 54 92 61 90 / 0 0 0 0  
CARLSBAD 52 91 62 88 / 0 0 0 10  
DRYDEN 59 93 64 95 / 0 0 10 0  
FORT STOCKTON 58 94 65 93 / 0 0 10 0  
GUADALUPE PASS 52 80 57 80 / 0 0 0 0  
HOBBS 49 88 57 85 / 0 0 0 0  
MARFA 47 86 51 86 / 0 0 10 0  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 55 92 63 91 / 0 0 0 0  
ODESSA 55 91 64 91 / 0 0 0 0  
WINK 53 94 64 92 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE  
MOUNTAINS.  
 
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR GUADALUPE  
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  
 
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING  
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.  
 
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BIG  
BEND AREA-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-  
MARFA PLATEAU-TERRELL-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.  
 
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/  
THURSDAY FOR DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-GUADALUPE  
MOUNTAINS-MARFA PLATEAU-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-  
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.  
 
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING  
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.  
 

 
 

 
 
10/80  
 
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