455
FXUS64 KSJT 021057
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
457 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2008
DISCUSSION
SEE BELOW FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
PANHANDLE...THEN MOVES ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. 850 MB
LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP TO 50 KNOTS TONIGHT OVER THE BIG
COUNTRY...AND AROUND 35 KTS SOUTH ALONG I-20. WINDS WILL NOT
LIKELY DECOUPLE TONIGHT AT THE KABI AND KSJT TAF SITES...SO DID
NOT MENTION LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. LATER SHIFTS HOWEVER STILL NEED
TO MONITOR LLWS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE VFR WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 327 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2008/
SHORT TERM...
BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER...AND WILL
COVER THAT IN ANOTHER SECTION. OTHERWISE...MUCH WARMER TODAY...
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FORECASTED TO CLIMB 10C TO 14C DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AS
WELL. MILD TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT DUE IN DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE WEDNESDAY FRONT IS CRITICAL WITH
REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES FOR THE BIG COUNTRY...WITH THE FRONT DUE
IN JUST BEFORE MAX HEATING. LOWS DOWN NEAR FREEZING FOR FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SEASONABLY CHILLY FOR FRIDAY ITSELF. FACT...COULD BE
LOOKING AT READINGS HOLDING IN THE 40S FOR HIGHS ACROSS PART OF
THE AREA.
LONG TERM...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AS DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US PERSISTS AND ALLOWS WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND...REACHING
SOMETHING PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON WHAT TO DO WITH A TROUGH/UPPER LOW THAT MAY BE
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
POINT...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT DO MUCH WITH THAT PART OF
THE FORECAST AND AWAIT BETTER AGREEMENT.
FIRE WEATHER...
HAVING DISCUSSION WITH THE FIRE WEATHER FORECASTER THIS
MORNING...HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE RED FLAG WARNING
FOR MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL
FALL WELL BELOW CRITERIA...REACHING BELOW 15% IN A FEW
AREAS...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MARGINAL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY
CONDITIONS...THE DECISION WAS MADE TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 77 51 65 31 49 / 0 0 10 0 0
SAN ANGELO 73 50 71 32 49 / 0 10 10 0 0
JUNCTION 73 42 75 31 57 / 0 10 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALLAHAN...COKE...CONCHO...CROCKETT...
FISHER...HASKELL...IRION...JONES...NOLAN...RUNNELS...
SCHLEICHER...SHACKELFORD...STERLING...SUTTON...TAYLOR...
THROCKMORTON...TOM GREEN.
99/99/04
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