601
FXUS64 KSJT 091124 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
524 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
DISCUSSION
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION
BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 1200 AND 2500 FEET ARE MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THESE CEILINGS ARE ABOUT
TO CLEAR KABI...AND WILL CLEAR THE REST OF THE SITES BY 18Z OR
EARLIER AT THEIR CURRENT PACE. KABI WILL LIKELY BE CLEAR OF THESE
CEILINGS BY THE TIME THE 12Z OBSERVATION COMES OUT. ONCE THESE
CIGS CLEAR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING AND TURNING
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. 20
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 344 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/
SHORT TERM...
CURRENTLY...WE HAVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGING EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH FROM A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN
IOWA AT THIS TIME. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR AREA IS CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST
NIGHT CONTINUES TO BRING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.
850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -5 CELSIUS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. WHILE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WE WILL REMAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH COOLER ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WHERE YESTERDAY THEY REACHED NEAR 60 DEGREES.
WILL SEE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WHICH MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING
TOO COLD TONIGHT CONSIDERING WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA
UNTIL AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...
STILL A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
AN SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LEVEL LOW...SWINGING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
EAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST NAM REMAINS
THE SLOWEST...BRINGING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM PRECIPITATION WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A LOT STILL HINGES ON HOW COLD
WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AND HOW QUICKLY WARMING WILL
OCCUR...GIVEN THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MENTION OF EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THURSDAY...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST MENTIONING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW.
AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SET
IN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM
UP TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 30S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 40 26 41 30 34 / 0 0 10 40 70
SAN ANGELO 43 26 43 29 36 / 0 0 30 40 60
JUNCTION 44 27 40 28 39 / 0 0 40 50 60
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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