416  
FXUS64 KSJT 171730  
AFDSJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
1230 PM CDT TUE OCT 17 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
/18Z TAFS/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED  
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTH TO  
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST FOR ALL  
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 628 AM CDT TUE OCT 17 2017/  
 
AVIATION...  
/12Z TAFS/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24  
HOURS. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 5-10  
KNOTS TODAY. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AT OUR SOUTHERN  
TERMINALS, AND FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS AT KSJT AND 5-10  
KNOTS AT KABI.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT TUE OCT 17 2017/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
 
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY  
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN  
CONUS IS SUPPRESSED SOUTH INTO MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS. DRY AIR IN  
PLACE AND FULL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG TEMPERATURE RECOVERY  
TODAY, AFTER A COLD START. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AT 6-12  
MPH TODAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST OF OUR AREA.  
 
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF  
NIGHTS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES, WHERE SOUTH WINDS  
WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE.  
THE COOLEST READINGS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOME OF OUR  
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES, WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST IN  
PROXIMITY TO THE RECEDING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR  
TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.  
 
LONG TERM...  
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
 
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF  
THE WORK WEEK, WITH WEDNESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY. WEAK UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PRODUCE  
A LITTLE BETTER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL  
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB AN EXTRA DEGREE OR TWO, WITH HIGHS IN  
THE MID 80S IN MANY LOCATIONS. AS THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS  
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, MAY HAVE ENOUGH LIFT  
TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND A FEW  
ISOLATED STORMS ON FRIDAY. KEPT RAIN CHANCES AT 20%, BUT EXPAND THE  
AREA TO COVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.  
 
DRY AND WARM TO START THE WEEKEND OFF, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT  
DUE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOULD HAVE PLENTY  
OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A  
DECENT AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. BUMPED RAIN  
CHANCES UP JUST A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO  
STRUGGLE WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN  
UPPER LOW LATE NEXT WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF  
ARE NOW FORECASTING THIS TO OCCUR WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND HAVE  
LITTLE IMPACT ON WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. WILL GO WITH THIS FORECAST  
FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ABILENE 51 83 56 79 / 0 0 0 5  
SAN ANGELO 48 83 55 80 / 0 0 0 5  
JUNCTION 44 81 53 79 / 0 0 0 5  
BROWNWOOD 45 83 54 80 / 0 0 0 5  
SWEETWATER 52 84 57 78 / 0 0 0 0  
OZONA 46 81 55 76 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
99/99/40  
 
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