084  
FXUS64 KSJT 250008  
AFDSJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
708 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
/00Z TAFS/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMIALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
EXPECT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH 02Z, DIMINISHING TO  
AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHWEST  
WINDS ON SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)  
 
WARM AND WINDY DAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. WIND GUSTS  
OVER 40 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO  
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE WIND  
SPEEDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. WILL LEAVE THE WIND  
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR MASS  
IN PLACE TONIGHT BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT, AND WITH WIND SPEEDS  
DROPPING, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS WELL. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER  
40S LOOK ON TARGET. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY,  
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER.  
 
LONG TERM...  
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
 
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS/LOWS WILL SWING ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS  
FEATURE, A DRYLINE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY, RESULTING IN  
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. A COLD  
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY  
MORNING, RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER  
TEMPERATURES. A MAINLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH  
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR  
EXTREME SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.  
 
THE NEXT MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY, THEN APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY  
INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, A DRYLINE WILL SET UP JUST  
WEST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE, WITH A FEW STRONG  
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WITH THE APPROACH OF BETTER LIFT  
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED, WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF STRONG TO  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EVENTUALLY A  
LINE OF STORM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,  
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING OF THE  
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS HARD TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT. AS THE UPPER  
LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE  
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY  
COOLER TEMPERATURES.  
 
MODELS ARE INDICATING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING TOWARD THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN  
THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT THIS MAY RESULT IN  
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN  
COUNTIES.  
 
FIRE WEATHER...  
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WIND  
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AND HUMIDITIES AROUND 15%. WIND SPEEDS WILL  
DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING, ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY WILL BE A LITTLE SLOW  
TO RECOVER. RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE INTO EFFECT THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  
 
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON. WINDS AT THE 20 FOOT LEVEL WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED,  
MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER, HUMIDITY VALUES WILL  
REMAIN VERY LOW.  
 
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND A  
FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. SOUTHWEST AND  
WEST WINDS AT THE 20 FOOT LEVEL WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 15 TO 18 MPH,  
WITH FORECASTED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING TO NEAR 10% IN SOME  
LOCATIONS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ABILENE 47 76 55 86 / 0 0 0 0  
SAN ANGELO 48 80 56 89 / 0 0 0 0  
JUNCTION 47 81 54 88 / 0 0 0 5  
BROWNWOOD 47 76 52 88 / 0 0 0 5  
SWEETWATER 47 76 56 84 / 0 0 0 0  
OZONA 47 79 54 86 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-  
COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-  
MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-  
SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.  
 
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CALLAHAN-FISHER-  
HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON.  
 

 
 

 
 
99/99/24  
 
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