025  
FXUS64 KSJT 222359  
AFDSJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
659 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
/00Z TAFS/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT  
24 HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY  
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE TERMINALS.  
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE KABI TERMINAL THIS EVENING,  
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST  
OF THE TERMINALS MAINLY AFTER 18Z. DUE TO COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES,  
WILL ONLY MENTION VCTS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH  
THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
 
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND  
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST  
THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH  
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH INTO  
THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,  
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWED  
A HEALTHY CUMULUS FIELD OVER HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES WITH  
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR. A WEAK UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGE, CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE BIG BEND REGION, WILL  
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST ALLOWING FOR WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW TO  
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THIS WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND THE  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE  
TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. MODELS  
DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT, THE WRF HAS A MORE WIDESPREAD  
RAINFALL EVENT WHILE THE GFS HAS SPOTTY AREAS OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. WRF HAS BEEN INITIALIZING THE PROGRESSION AND  
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT BETTER, SO CHOSE TO LEAN TOWARD THIS SOLUTION.  
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY EARLY  
THIS EVENING AND SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY.  
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT THE STRONGER STORMS COULD  
PRODUCE A STRONG WIND GUST AND A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE COOLER TOMORROW WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND WITH  
WIND SWITCHING TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME  
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECASTING HIGHS  
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS WOULD  
BE 5 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR  
SOME AREAS.  
 
LONG TERM...  
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
 
LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
LONG TERM FORECAST. A SLOW MOVING COOL FRONT SOUTH BOUND WILL  
INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO, SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT  
AND PW VALUES OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT LOCALIZE RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE NEXT POSSIBLE WEATHER MAKER  
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA, IS  
THE FUTURE TRACK OF HARVEY. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK IS A POSSIBLE  
STRONG TROPICAL STORM/CAT 1 HURRICANE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE  
LOWER/MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 00Z-12Z SATURDAY. AGAIN, STILL SOME  
UNCERTAINTY AS THE SYSTEM REMNANTS IS DISORGANIZED OVER THE  
YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING, BUT HAS A CHANCE TO REGAIN SOME  
STRENGTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE  
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTH  
AND NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND NORTHERN  
LOUISIANA BY MONDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE I-35  
CORRIDOR FOR THE WESTERN EDGE. THE BOTTOM LINE, THIS LEAVES WEST  
CENTRAL TEXAS ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE STORM FOR SIGNIFICANT  
RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS THE  
TRACK MAY CHANGE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND  
HEARTLAND. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS(LOCALIZE RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALSO POSSIBLE) FOR THESE AREAS THIS  
WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A DRY FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE  
80S, SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ABILENE 71 87 70 89 / 30 50 30 40  
SAN ANGELO 73 89 70 90 / 10 50 30 30  
JUNCTION 72 90 72 91 / 5 40 30 40  
BROWNWOOD 72 90 71 89 / 10 40 30 40  
SWEETWATER 71 86 69 87 / 40 50 20 30  
OZONA 70 88 70 89 / 10 40 30 30  
 

 
   
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
99/99/24  
 
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