721
FXUS65 KSLC 210442
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
942 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHERN UTAH LATE TONIGHT
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. A SECOND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER UTAH EARLY NEXT WEEK....AND REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
GUSTY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN UTAH THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS EVEN STRENGTHENING IN SOME
LOCATIONS AFTER THE SUN WENT DOWN. AS SUCH...HAVE EXTENDED THE
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z IN THE GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND THE
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS. WITH WINDS DECREASING IN SOUTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH...HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE
THERE.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MSAS
PRESSURE ANALYSIS...WITH GOOD PRESSURE RISES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
NEVADA WITH THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS WELL ON PACE TO ENTER UTAH
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...AND SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING BY 18Z SATURDAY. THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
A QUICK HITTING AND LOW QPF STORM. THE GFS IS STILL THE LEAST
ENTHUSIASTIC MODEL FOR THIS SYSTEM...WITH NO MORE THAN 0.10 INCHES
OF PRECIP FALLING ON ANY LOCATION IN THE CWA. OTHER MODELS
INCLUDING THE CANADIAN AND THE NAM ARE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER WITH THE
PRECIP...BUT ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT OF THIS
SNOWFALL WILL BE SMALL...WITH A MAJOR FOCUS ON FAR NORTHERN UTAH.
GLOBAL MODELS STILL IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT ABOUT THE SECOND
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN
THE LAST 72 HOURS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE SYSTEM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA...AND THE CANADIAN...NAM...AND ECMWF BEING THE
MOST ENTHUSIASTIC MODELS AS FAR AS QPF AND AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIP
WITH THE STORM GOES. FORECAST IS STILL LEANED TOWARD THE WETTER
SOLUTION OF THE LATTER THREE MODELS...THOUGH THE CONTINUED
INSISTENCE BY THE GFS ONLY 48 HOURS OUT IS IMPRESSIVE AND BEARS
FURTHER WATCHING.
OTHER THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPDATES TO THE WIND
ADVISORIES...NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS EVENING.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
AND TURN WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 13Z TO 14Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY FOR UTZ003-UTZ005.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...SCHOENING
AVIATION...YOUNG
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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