553  
FXUS65 KSLC 141556  
AFDSLC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT  
956 AM MDT TUE AUG 14 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT  
BASIN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS LOCATION  
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS  
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME DRYING AND MODEST COOLING  
IS POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE  
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
DAYS. THIS POSITION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO  
EXPAND NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
DAYS.  
 
A COUPLE OF FEATURES WILL IMPACT THE DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION  
THROUGH TONIGHT. ONE FEATURE IS THE UPPER TROUGH SAGGING  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. THIS TROUGH HAS  
NUDGED SOMEWHAT DRIER AND STABLE AIR INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF  
UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING. CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE  
INHIBITED TODAY, THOUGH CAN NOT RULE RULE OUT A COUPLE OF WEAK  
SHOWERS/STORMS AT PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  
 
ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY  
TERRAIN-TIED CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION MAY  
BE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL UTAH LATER TODAY AS THE APPARENT VORTICITY  
OVER CENTRAL NEVADA COULD DRIFT INTO WESTERN UTAH AND SPAWN SOME  
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.  
 
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY WITH PWAT VALUES  
RUNNING BETWEEN .75" TO 1.00" ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST  
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THE RESULTANT CONVECTION WILL AGAIN  
BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THOUGH ANY WEAK DYNAMIC  
SUPPORT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA COULD BRING ABOUT SOME  
ORGANIZATION TO THE SHOWERS/STORMS.  
 
PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE ON AN UPPER TREND THURSDAY WITH VALUES  
GENERALLY EXCEEDING .75" ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE  
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A MODEST INCREASE IN MOSTLY  
DIURNAL, TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION, WITH ANY WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT  
BRINGING SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE SHOWERS/STORMS.  
 
A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE  
AREA ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS BY SATURDAY. DRIER AND  
MORE STABLE AIR MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WILL  
END MOST CONVECTION AND KEEP TEMPS AT OR BELOW MID-AUGUST NORMS  
ON SUNDAY.  
 
ISSUED AN EARLIER UPDATE TO ADD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS  
TO THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD  
SHAPE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
A SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH  
WILL KEEP THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF  
THE KSLC TERMINAL TODAY. SMOKE FROM THE WESTERN STATES WILDFIRES  
WILL STILL BE PRESENT, THOUGH VISIBILITY AT THE TERMINAL WILL  
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE  
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17Z AND 18Z, THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER  
05Z.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY  
TO THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF UTAH TODAY. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE  
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH A SOMEWHAT  
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF UTAH  
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LARGELY  
BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THIS  
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONVECTION WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN THIRD  
WEDNESDAY, THEN BECOME MORE LIKELY OVER ALL FIRE DISTRICTS ON  
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY  
NIGHT/SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND SOMEWHAT  
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UT...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
CONGER  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY  
 
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP  
 
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