478  
FXUS61 KAKQ 170801  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
401 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC  
TODAY, AND THEN REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND GRADUALLY MODERATES  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES ~1028MB SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY  
AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. THE SKY IS CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING  
ASIDE FROM A NARROW STREAMER OVER THE LOWER BAY. TEMPERATURES RANGE  
WIDELY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOST INLAND LOCATIONS IN THE LOW/MID  
40S (LOCALLY UPPER 30S OVER THE PIEDMONT) TO 55-60F FOR COASTAL SE  
VA/NE NC WHERE A 10-15 MPH NNE WIND PERSISTS. THE HIGH BUILDS INTO  
THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 60-65F, WHICH ARE ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL  
BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN  
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR, COOL, AND DRY  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE  
MID/UPPER 30S FOR RURAL INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH LOW/MID 40S FOR  
COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. FROST IS POSSIBLE FOR RURAL OUTLYING  
LOCATIONS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE  
AIRMASS GRADUALLY MODERATES. SUNNY/CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL  
CONTINUE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 65-70F FOLLOWED BY HIGHS  
THURSDAY OF 70-75F. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SAT THEN MOVES OFF  
THE COAST SUN/MON. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG WITH A SLOW WARMING  
TREND. HIGHS FRI 70-75. LOWS UPR 40S-UPR 50S. HIGHS SAT/SUN IN THE  
MID-UPR 70S EXCEPT 70-75 ALONG THE COAST. LOWS SAT NITE 50-60. LOWS  
SUN NITE IN THE LWR 50S-LWR 60S.  
 
MODELS SHOW THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING MON. GFS QUICKER MOVING  
IT EAST, ECMWF A BIT SLOWER. WILL GO WITH LOW CHC POPS MAINLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON THEN CHC POPS MON NITE. HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 70S. LOWS IN  
THE 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.  
THE SKY IS CLEAR ASIDE FROM A NARROW BAY STREAMER IN VICINITY OF  
ORF. A N WIND IS GENERALLY 5-10KT, BUT REMAINS 10-15KT WITH  
GUSTS OF 20-25KT FOR ORF. THE WIND AT ORF WILL GRADUALLY  
DIMINISH THROUGH 12Z AND HENCE THE STREAMER SHOULD DISSIPATE. A  
NNE WIND SHOULD RANGE FROM 6-12KT TODAY UNDER A SUNNY SKY. HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE WIND BECOMING  
CALM TO VERY LIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER  
THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE SKY REMAINING  
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A LIGHT WIND.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE  
WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING  
DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30  
KNOTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY AND OCEAN THROUGH EARLY THIS  
MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SCA FOR ALL OF THE RIVERS  
BESIDES THE LOWER JAMES AS WIND GUSTS HAVE MAINLY DIMINISHED BELOW  
20 KNOTS IN THESE LOCATIONS. SEAS OVER THE OCEAN WILL BE UP TO 6 TO  
8 FEET WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WAVES  
OVER THE BAY WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET. SEAS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED  
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT  
WITH JUST SOME LINGERING 5 TO 6 FEET SEAS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN  
COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-  
SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
THE KAKQ RADAR WILL BE DOWN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 18TH FOR  
RADOME REPAIRS.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
ANZ630>632-634-638.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-  
650-652.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-  
656.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ658.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO  
NEAR TERM...AJZ  
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO  
LONG TERM...MPR  
AVIATION...AJZ  
MARINE...AJB  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab VA Page
The Nexlab NC Page
The Nexlab MD Page Main Text Page