335
FXUS61 KAKQ 081758
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1258 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
COULD NOT ASK FOR A BETTER SUNDAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH AFTN TEMPS REACHING INTO THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S.
GENERALLY A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY COOL
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LWR-MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MONDAY...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WXWISE...WITH HIGH CLOUDS
PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE SFC RIDGE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF COAST STREAMS TOWARDS THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS AGAIN
PORTEND TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS L/M70S
INLAND...U60S/L70S COASTAL AREAS.
TUESDAY...
MODELS STILL HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING INTERACTION BETWEEN
(EXTRATROPICAL) SFC TROUGH OVER WESTERN GULF COAST...HURRICANE IDA
AND AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM (GREAT LAKES) TROUGH/APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE WNW.
GFS/NAM CAN AGREE IN DEPICTING INCREASING CLOUDS AS OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE INCREMENTALLY RISES LATE MONDAY NIGHT/ERY TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE H5-85
LAYER THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN
OCCURS...SO HV LEFT FORECAST DRY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY IS STILL A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE
WITH MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE DEPICTING LOCATION (AND COVERAGE)
OF BEST POPS. GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL DEPICT A GENERALLY WET
AFTERNOON/EVENING TUESDAY...WITH THE NAM/SREF SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS AND QPF. FOR NOW...UNTIL BETTER
MODEL CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED...HV DECIDED TO TAKE A HYBRID OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS. WL PLAY ABOUT A QUARTER TO A HALF OF THE VERY WET
GFS SOLUTION FOR TOTAL QPF...AND WILL TREND TOWARDS THE SLOWER
GEM/NAM TIMING WITH THE IDEA THAT SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
HELD ON TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE. 1030+ MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO ERN CONUS FOR REST OF FCST
PRD. P-GRDNT BTWN DEEPENING LOW OVR NEW ENGLAND AND THIS HIGH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN BREEZY TO WNDY CNDTNS AT THE COAST. DRY AND
SEASONABLE CNDTNS XPCTD WITH A SLOW WRMUP BY NXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
WED IN THE 50S...NR 60 THU AND INTO THE 60S FRI AND SAT. LOWS IN
THE 30S AND 40S.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AKQ FORECAST AREA IS RESULTING IN
LGT AND VRBL WINDS. SKIES REMAIN CLR IN THE TAFS ALTHOUGH THE NAM
INDICATES SOME HIGH CLOUDS ENTERING THE PICTURE DURG THE DAY MON.
THE EARLIER TAF FOR SBY HAD 2 MILES BR AFT 06Z. THE MAV HAS IFR FOG
BUT MODEL DATA IS LIKELY CONTAMINATED BY THE PREVIOUS LOCATION OF
THE SENSOR. BOTH MOS FCSTS HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 30S...
ABOUT 5 DEGREES LWR THAN OUR OFFICIAL FCST. WILL KEEP THEM 7+ MILES
FOR NOW.
VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE BUT THINGS GO DOWNHILL FROM THERE.
VARIOUS MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND MIDWEEK
OFF EITHER THE CAROLINA OR MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG NE TO E WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF WIDESPREAD PCPN AND AREAS OF IFR BY WED AND POSSIBLY THU. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY FRI.
MARINE
SSW WNDS CONTG TO GRDLY DCRS...SEAS SUBSIDE...(ERY) THIS MRNG.
OTRW...HI PRES INVOF RGN TDA/TNGT...B4 SLIDING OFFSHR FOR MON/MON
NGT. WNDS GRDLY BCMG ONSHR...THOUGH RMNG AOB 10 KT ERY IN THE WK.
MDL DISAGREEMENT FOR TUE/WED PD AS PSBL LO PRES PASS NR OR RMNS S OF
WTRS. WL BLEND LATEST SHORT TERM GUID/FCST W/ CURRENT MIDWEEK FCST
FOR NOW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...CCW/MAM
SHORT TERM...CCW/MAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR/SMF
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