800  
FXUS61 KAKQ 121203  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
703 AM EST TUE DEC 12 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG  
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM MIDDAY THROUGH MID-  
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MARKEDLY COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION THEN  
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING FOR  
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING  
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  
SURFACE LOW IS PUSHING ACROSS E OH/W PA EARLY THIS MORNING,  
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO THE MID-  
SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  
 
FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM LATE MORNING  
INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW WILL  
GET TEMPERATURES OFF TO A MILD START, WITH STABLE TO SLOWLY  
FALLING TEMPERATURES BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS INTO THE MID- UPPER  
50S SE TO THE UPPER 40S NW. TURNING BLUSTERY AND DRY LATE IN THE  
DAY FROM NW TO SE. WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 MPH BY MID TO LATE  
AFTERNOON, GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 MPH TONIGHT.  
 
BECOMING CLEAR, BLUSTERY AND COLD TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO  
LOW 20S MOST AREAS...MID 20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE SE COAST. WIND  
CHILLS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS (MAINLY NORTH) TO TEENS  
TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON AVG WITH A  
COUPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN AS A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS  
TRAVERSE THE REGION.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WED, AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE  
SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 20S  
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-30 MPH AND HIGH  
TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S MOST SPOTS...15-20 DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL.  
 
NEXT CHANCE OF (LIGHT) PCPN ARRIVES WED NIGHT WITH AN  
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. EMERGING MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT  
MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS NORTH OF THE REGION, WITH LOW-LEVELS  
QUITE DRY. STILL, POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES OR  
SNOW SHOWERS IS THERE, SO HAVE INTRODUCED A 20% OF SNOW SHOWERS  
EVERYWHERE FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. QUICK CLEARING BEHIND  
THIS SYSTEM INTO THU, WITH A DRY DAY THEN EXPECTED FOR THU.  
TEMPS MODERATE THEN INTO THU WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S UNDER A  
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WNW THU NIGHT. MODELS  
COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH SLOWING THIS FEATURE DOWN  
SLIGHTLY, THEN CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA FRI AFTN/NIGHT AS WEAK  
SFC LO PRES PASSES JUST S AND E. 00Z/12 GFS AND ECMWF BOTH  
SUGGEST THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PCPN ON FRI (ESP N AND  
NW SECTIONS)...MAINTAINING COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION. DURING  
THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL FLOW RELAXES ALLOWING FOR MODERATION  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
LOWS THU NIGHT FROM THE M20S NW TO THE M30S AT THE COAST IN SE  
VA-NE NC. HIGHS FRI FROM THE M30S NW TO AROUND 50F IN FAR SE  
VA-NE NC. LOWS FRI NIGHT FROM THE M-U20S INLAND TO 30-35F AT THE  
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS SAT IN THE L-M40S. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE  
L-M30S. HIGHS SUN IN THE L-M50S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 30S TO  
L40S. HIGHS MON IN THE L-M50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD BUT CLOUDS  
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH  
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIGHT SE-SW WIND WILL PREVAIL EARLY  
THIS MORNING BUT INCREASE BY 15-18Z, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SW WINDS SHIFT TO W THEN NW  
AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA TUE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30  
KT AT TIMES TUE AFTN. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 3.5KFT  
TO 5 KFT AGL AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY  
OFFSHORE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK  
AHEAD.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG CAA SURGE OCCURS BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD  
FRONT LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF  
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING  
FOR SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS INITIALLY. GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD  
BEGIN AROUND SUNSET AND LAST INTO WED AFTERNOON (SAVE THE  
YORK/RAPPAHANNOCK/UPR JAMES RIVERS WHERE SCAS WILL REMAIN). WITH  
GALE CONDITIONS BEGINNING WITHIN 24 HRS WILL GO AHEAD AND INITIATE  
GALE WARNINGS AS OF 4 AM. AGAIN, SCAS CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF  
TODAY WITH GALE CONDITIONS BY THIS EVENING INTO WED. GUSTS WILL  
REACH AS HIGH AS 40 KT COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER BAY. WAVES 4-5 FT  
BAY; SEAS 5-7 OCEAN.  
 
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON THURSDAY, THEN NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO CROSS  
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>637.  
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-638-650-  
652-654-656-658.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM  
NEAR TERM...MAM  
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM  
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM  
AVIATION...MAM/JEF  
MARINE...JDM  
 
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