478
FXUS61 KAKQ 170801
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017
SYNOPSIS
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
TODAY, AND THEN REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND GRADUALLY MODERATES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES ~1028MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. THE SKY IS CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING
ASIDE FROM A NARROW STREAMER OVER THE LOWER BAY. TEMPERATURES RANGE
WIDELY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOST INLAND LOCATIONS IN THE LOW/MID
40S (LOCALLY UPPER 30S OVER THE PIEDMONT) TO 55-60F FOR COASTAL SE
VA/NE NC WHERE A 10-15 MPH NNE WIND PERSISTS. THE HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 60-65F, WHICH ARE ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL
BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR, COOL, AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S FOR RURAL INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH LOW/MID 40S FOR
COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. FROST IS POSSIBLE FOR RURAL OUTLYING
LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE
AIRMASS GRADUALLY MODERATES. SUNNY/CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 65-70F FOLLOWED BY HIGHS
THURSDAY OF 70-75F. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SAT THEN MOVES OFF
THE COAST SUN/MON. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND. HIGHS FRI 70-75. LOWS UPR 40S-UPR 50S. HIGHS SAT/SUN IN THE
MID-UPR 70S EXCEPT 70-75 ALONG THE COAST. LOWS SAT NITE 50-60. LOWS
SUN NITE IN THE LWR 50S-LWR 60S.
MODELS SHOW THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING MON. GFS QUICKER MOVING
IT EAST, ECMWF A BIT SLOWER. WILL GO WITH LOW CHC POPS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON THEN CHC POPS MON NITE. HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 70S. LOWS IN
THE 60S.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SKY IS CLEAR ASIDE FROM A NARROW BAY STREAMER IN VICINITY OF
ORF. A N WIND IS GENERALLY 5-10KT, BUT REMAINS 10-15KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25KT FOR ORF. THE WIND AT ORF WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 12Z AND HENCE THE STREAMER SHOULD DISSIPATE. A
NNE WIND SHOULD RANGE FROM 6-12KT TODAY UNDER A SUNNY SKY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE WIND BECOMING
CALM TO VERY LIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE SKY REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A LIGHT WIND.
MARINE
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE
WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING
DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY AND OCEAN THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SCA FOR ALL OF THE RIVERS
BESIDES THE LOWER JAMES AS WIND GUSTS HAVE MAINLY DIMINISHED BELOW
20 KNOTS IN THESE LOCATIONS. SEAS OVER THE OCEAN WILL BE UP TO 6 TO
8 FEET WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WAVES
OVER THE BAY WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET. SEAS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT
WITH JUST SOME LINGERING 5 TO 6 FEET SEAS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
EQUIPMENT
THE KAKQ RADAR WILL BE DOWN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 18TH FOR
RADOME REPAIRS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632-634-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJB
EQUIPMENT...
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