027  
FXUS61 KAKQ 231457  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
957 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE  
AREA AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE  
AREA LATE SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT OVER NC WITH  
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD  
STRATUS COVERS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES  
RANGING THROUGH THE 40S TO AROUND 50F OVER COASTAL NE NC. THE  
FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRY TO SLIDE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY,  
WITH PATCHY -DZ NORTH OF THE FRONT. ALSO INCLUDED A LOW-END  
CHANCE OF -RA OVER NORTHERN AREAS THOUGH PCPN SHOULD MAINLY BE  
IN THE FORM OF -DZ. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED OVER FAR SRN AREAS  
LATER THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT SLIDES NORTH, ALSO ALLOWING TEMPS  
TO REBOUND A BIT INTO THE LOW 60S THERE LATE IN THE DAY.  
ELSEWHERE, TEMPS EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE 50S (ONLY LOW 50S  
FAR N).  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
ALL OF THE FA ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT. NOT MUCH SUPPORT  
FOR PCPN BUT FOG WILL BE A GOOD BET, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
LOWS NEAR 50 NORTH, IN THE MID/UPR 50S SOUTH.  
 
OFFSHORE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA SAT. MOISTURE SLOWLY INCRS  
WITH THE BEST SUPPORT FOR PCPN ACROSS THE NW SAT AFTN AND EVE.  
OTW, PT SUNNY TO MSTLY CLDY AND WARMER. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S  
ERN SHORE WITH THE 70S WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE  
MID 50S-LWR 60S.  
 
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUN MORNING WITH THE  
FROPA IN THE AFTN/EVE. MODELS DEPICT A DECENT FEED OF MOISTURE  
ACROSS THE MTS BUT IT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE  
PIEDMONT. DAYTIME POPS RANGE FROM NEAR 30% SE TO 50-60% NW.  
HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST AREAS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED THE THE DAY 4-7 FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING  
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE  
SLOWING DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA AS IT BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL  
TO THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT. AS SUCH, WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS  
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR ALL LOCATIONS. AM EXPECTING EVERYONE TO  
SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AT SOME POINT, AND GUIDANCE POINTED TO LIKELY  
POPS BOTH SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE RAIN WILL  
BE LIGHT AND NOT CONTINUOUS, WE OPTED TO JUST INCLUDE CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS FOR THAT PERIOD. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA, DRY  
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC BY  
TUESDAY, THEN OFFSHORE WED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE  
THURSDAY AS THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A  
DEEPENING MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  
 
DESPITE THE COOL DOWN FROM THIS WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE  
ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50-MID 60S AND LOWS IN  
THE UPPER 30S/MID 40S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR TO START OFF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AS A  
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOW CIGS/VSBYS  
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM SOUTH  
TO NORTH LATER TODAY (TO AT LEAST MVFR) AS THE FRONT RETREATS  
BACK N AS WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVE. AVIATION CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE TONIGHT. REGION BACK INTO THE  
WARM SECTOR TONIGHT- SUN (THOUGH THERE MAY BE SCT SHRAS). THE  
NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN...W/ ANOTHER PERIOD OF  
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THAT PERIOD.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS  
MORNING, WITH NNE WINDS PREVAILING IN ITS WAKE. SCA HEADLINES  
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE OCEAN THROUGH 18-21Z WHERE SEAS  
AVG 6-8 FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH. SCA FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY  
FOR WAVES TO 3-4 FT, ELSEWHERE FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND, NNE  
WINDS AVG 10-15 KT WITH WAVES OF 2-3 FT IN THE BAY AND GENLY 1-2  
FT FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND AND THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY  
DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT  
THROUGH 21Z/4PM FOR FAR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WHERE NE WINDS  
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MIDDAY AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE  
TO BELOW 5 FT, TAPERED TO 18Z FARTHER SOUTH.  
 
OTHERWISE, THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT LATER  
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THIS  
OCCURS SO WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE (MAINLY 5-10 KT) LATER  
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THEY SHIFT FROM THE NE TO THE SE AND  
EVENTUALLY TO THE SSW. SW FLOW INCREASES ON SAT BUT SHOULD STAY  
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SSW WINDS  
MAY INCREASE ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITH  
GUSTS TO ~20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT  
WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY WITH N TO NE WINDS THEN  
SHIFTING TO THE N/NW BY TUE AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. AT THIS TIME, NOT MUCH  
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WINDS/SEAS LOOK  
TO GENLY STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
RECORD HIGHS WERE SET THU 2/22 AT RICHMOND, NORFOLK, AND  
ELIZABETH CITY. RECORD HIGH MINS WERE NOT SET AS TEMPERATURES  
PLUMMETED BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, FALLING INTO THE  
40S.  
 
* DATE: THU 2/22  
* SITE: ACTUAL HIGH...PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH  
 
* RIC: 75 F......... 73 (1985)  
* ORF: 79 F..........77 (1937)  
* ECG: 79 F..........77 (2003)  
 
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND, RECORD  
HIGHS ARE LISTED FOR SAT 2/24 AND SUN 2/25.  
 
* RECORD HIGHS  
* SITE: SAT 2/24......SUN 2/25  
 
* RIC: 82 (1985) 83 (1930)  
* ORF: 82 (2012) 81 (2017)  
* SBY: 77 (2012) 80 (1930)  
* ECG: 79 (1985) 78 (2017)  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-  
652-654-656-658.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MAS  
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAS  
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR  
LONG TERM...AJB/MRD  
AVIATION...ALB/MAS  
MARINE...LKB  
CLIMATE...AKQ  
 
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