969
FXUS61 KAKQ 282352
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
752 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2017
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OUT TO SEA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
LATE THIS AFTN, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CNTRD OVER ERN VA,
PROVIDING THE FCST AREA WITH A MAINLY SUNNY SKY AND VERY
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. TEMPS RANGED FM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE JUST OFF THE COAST BY THU MORNING,
MAINTAINING DRY WX AND STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE TEMPS. LOWS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OUT TO SEA LATER THU THRU FRI.
DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF FRI FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION. SSW FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE ON THU
RESULTING IN A WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS. MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. MOSTLY CLEAR THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THAT SSW FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING DEWPTS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION FOR FRI THRU SAT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM
COULD AFFECT SRN THIRD OF THE AREA FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT.
THEN, ISOLATED TO SCTD SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT
AFTN INTO SAT EVENING, AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRI WILL RANGE FM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LOWS FRI NIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
WITH A COLD FRONT WEAKENING NEAR OR JUST N OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT/SUN
MORNING. STILL CAPPING POPS AT 20-40% SAT NIGHT (HIGHEST N) AS
MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCING STAYS NW CLOSER TO THE DECAYING FRONT.
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE FRONT WASH OUT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, WILL
MAINTAIN 20% POPS N/NW AND 30% POPS MOST OTHER AREAS (UP TO 40%
OVER NORTHEAST NC). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. MON/TUE
WILL SEE THE LOCAL AREA GENERALLY IN LIGHT FLOW AND MINIMAL
FORCING. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH ENOUGH AFTN/EARLY
EVENING INSTABILITY FOR ~20% POPS MOST AREAS (AND WITH A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY WILL KEEP POPS TO NEAR 30% FOR INTERIOR NE NC)
HIGHS 90-95 F INLAND AND MID- UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S NEAR THE
COAST. LOWS GENERALLY 70-75 F. GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO
DETAILS LATE TUE/WED, THE ECMWF SUGGESTING BUILDING HEAT AND
LOWER POPS WHILE THE GFS SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY COOLER WX AND A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR DAILY TSTMS. HAVE GENLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND
JUST CARRIED 20 TO 30% POPS DURING CLIMO FAVORED TIMEFRAME (LATE
AFTN AND EVENING). HIGHS CONTINUE TO BE 90-95 F INLAND AND
UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE COAST.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
APPROACH THIS WEEKEND AND THEN STALL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 00Z
TAF PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED CUMULUS, AROUND 6000 FEET, DEVELOPS MAINLY
AFTER 16Z. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK: AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED ALONG THE SE VA COAST, WITH A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW OF 5-10 KT OVER THE WATERS. SEAS AVG 2-3 FT FOR
NC COASTAL WATERS AND 1-2 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH SLIDES
JUST OFFSHORE TONIGHT, ALLOWING A BRIEF SURGE OF SSE FLOW UP THE BAY.
NOT ENOUGH GRADIENT WITH THIS FOR ANY HEADLINES, BUT WAVES MAY BUILD
TO 2-3 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAY BY 06Z TONIGHT WITH ~15 KT WINDS.
A SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT;T FROM A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BY LATE THU AFTN AND ESPECIALLY THU
NIGHT. HAVE RAISED SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY ZONES N OF NEW PT
COMFORT FOR S WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
(STRONGEST WINDS MOST LIKELY FROM 00-06Z/FRI). FARTHER SOUTH IN
THE BAY AND ACROSS THE RIVERS, THE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE WEAKER
AND CONFIDENCE THEREFORE LOWER AND HAVE HELD OFF FOR NOW
REGARDING HEADLINES AS THIS IS A LATE 2ND/3RD PERIOD EVENT. IN
THESE AREAS, EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO AVG 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT. OTHER AREA WHERE A MARGINAL SCA EVENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE IS THE COASTAL WATERS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND WITH A SSW
WIND TO AROUND 20 KT. WAVEWATCH/NWPS BLEND SUGGESTS MAINLY 4 FT
SEAS IN THESE AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT
OUT 20 NM OFFSHORE. SEAS FARTHER SOUTH SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW
3-4 FT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRI AFTN/EVENING, THOUGH GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS WINDS BEING SLIGHTLY WEAKER COMPARED TO THU NIGHT. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW SAT BUT WEAKENS BY
THE TIME IT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY
TSTMS, CONDITIONS WILL BE SUB-SCA WITH WINDS 10-15 KT OR LESS
AND SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ630-631.
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJB/LSA
MARINE...LKB
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