290
FXUS61 KAKQ 211041
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
641 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2018
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1032 MB BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND DOWN
INTO THE MID ATLC REGION TODAY, LEADING TO ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH
A SUNNY SKY FOLLOWING SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FROST. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S MOST AREAS EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST (UPR 50S)
WHERE SEA BREEZES MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN.
FOR TONIGHT...THE FA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTH. SOME INCREASING MOISTURE IN
THE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS TO
ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY RANGE THROUGH THE 60S. N OR NE WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS SUNDAY MORNING VEER AROUND TO THE SE SUNDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS.
BY MONDAY MORNING, NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST TOWARD THE GULF COAST REGION.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
DAMPEN, WITH THE CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AS THE UPPER TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS AND THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, HAVE KEPT MONDAY DRY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA, DESPITE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. MAY BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR, BUT WILL HOLD POPS AT
SLIGHT CHC OR LESS. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 60S. RAIN CHANCES STEADILY INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, WITH PRECIP SPREADING NNE INTO
THE AREA INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S IN
THE PIEDMONT TO LOW 50S ACROSS SE COASTAL PLAIN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 410 PM EDT FRIDAY...
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM SSW TO NNE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES PUSH E/NE.
20/12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL COVER THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY
AND LAST THROUGH AROUND 12Z WED. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MOST RECENT SUITE OF GUIDANCE, HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 60-70% FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA TUE-EARLY WED. DUE TO THE RAIN, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BE IN THE LOW 60S FOR THE BULK OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. AFTER THE SFC
LOW TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WED AM, THE MAIN AREA
OF RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY
IF THE RAIN EXITS EARLY ENOUGH (THIS LOOKS MORE LIKELY IN SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA).
12Z GFS/CMC TRACK ANOTHER SFC LOW/WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY-FRIDAY AM, BUT ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE A RAINY SOLUTION. THUS,
HAVE KEPT POPS AT OR BELOW 40%. HIGHS AROUND 70/LOWS BETWEEN 50-55
EXPECTED THU-FRI. AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN US
FRIDAY PM INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SFC LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN LATE FRIDAY AS WELL AS BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 640 AM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AT LESS THAN 10 KT, GENLY FROM THE N BUT WILL SHIFT ONSHORE TO
THE E/NE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTN. EXPECT SKC THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS (SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING
LATE).
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUN, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
AND RAIN.
MARINE
AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS DROPPING N-S ACROSS THE MARINE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE WIND WILL BECOME NE AND BRIEFLY INCREASE TO
15-20KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY OVER THE
BAY/OCEAN AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER JAMES. THE DURATION WILL ONLY
BE 1-2HRS, SO THIS WILL BE HANDLED WITH AN MWS OVER THE BAY.
WAVES IN THE BAY COULD ALSO INCREASE TO 2-3FT. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SUNDAY RESULTING
IN BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL BECOME SEA/BAY
BREEZE DRIVEN BY THIS AFTN, THE S/SE 5-10KT TONIGHT, BEFORE
BECOMING N SUNDAY MORNING THEN E 10KT BY SUNDAY AFTN AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. AN E WIND IS
EXPECTED TO REACH 10-15KT BY MONDAY, AND THEN 15-25KT BY MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS
BUILDING TO 6-10FT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH 4-5FT WAVES IN
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY (2-4FT ELSEWHERE IN THE BAY). BROAD LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE WIND BECOMING NW
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...LKB/MAS
MARINE...AJZ
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