073  
FXUS61 KAKQ 271059  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
659 AM EDT MON MAR 27 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH  
THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND  
CROSSES THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE FA...ROUGHLY FROM ABOUT FVX-  
MFV. N OF THE BOUNDARY...FG REMAINS W/ VSBYS MAINLY 1-3SM...THOUGH  
VSBYS 1/4-1/2SM FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE (AND  
THE ADJACENT WATERS). WILL RE-ISSUE SPS FOR LOCALLY DENSE FG  
EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE. THE BOUNDARY WILL  
BE LIFTING N THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEREFORE EXPECT  
SLOW/GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE FG/VSBYS (FROM S-N).  
 
INITIAL AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTS INTO/THROUGH NEW ENGLAND  
TODAY...LEAVING FA W/ CONTINUED MILD/WARM CONDITIONS AS HI PRES  
(SFC-ALOFT) REMAINS INVOF SE CONUS COAST. MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY  
THIS MORNING...W/ ISOLD SHRAS...MAINLY CONFINED TO NW OF A AVC-  
RIC-SBY LINE...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTN. ALL ZONES WILL BE  
BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR...EVEN EVENTUALLY ON THE EASTERN SHORE.  
ASIDE FROM LOCALLY COOLER READINGS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST...  
MOST AREAS WILL RISE INTO THE M-U70S. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR  
WIDESPREAD PRECIP (AFTER EARLY-MID MORNING), BUT WILL CARRY 20%  
POPS FOR AFTN SHOWERS (TSTMS WELL INLAND).  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT...AS THE FRONT  
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND WILL CARRY CHC POPS WEST OF I-95  
AFTER MIDNIGHT/20% OR LESS E. WARM WITH LOWS MAINLY 55-60 F.  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA TUE AS A SFC COLD FRONT  
PASSES ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY. CONTINUED WARM W/ HIGHS WELL  
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F. THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS AND AFTN TSTMS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 40-50% POPS MOST  
AREAS. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS  
TUE AFTN/EVENING AS SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL INCREASES AND SFC DEW  
PTS APPROACH 60F...BUT OVERALL NOT LOOKING LIKE WIDESPREAD  
SEVERE WX. DRYING LATE TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY 50-55 F...W/  
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WED. SOMEWHAT COOLER BUT STILL A  
LITTLE ABOVE AVG WITH HIGHS 60-65F NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE  
U60S-L70S WELL INLAND.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
DRY WX EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT THRU THU, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
DOWN OVER THE AREA TO ALONG THE EAST COAST. DECENT CHC FOR  
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS LATER THU NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT  
MORNING, AS LOW PRESSURE AND ANOTHER ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY WX AND HIGH PRESSURE  
RETURNS FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.  
 
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S THU, IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID  
60S FRI, AND IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 SAT AND SUN. LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WED NIGHT, IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S THU  
NIGHT, IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FRI NIGHT, AND IN THE 40S SAT  
NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME VFR INVOF SBY PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  
NARROW AREA OF -SHRAS MOVING E...APPROACHING I 95 (AND RIC)  
ATTM...AND HAVE ADDED TEMPO -SHRA TO RIC UNTIL ABOUT 14Z/27.  
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS W/  
LOW PROB FOR SHRAS. UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS  
THE REGION INTO TUE NIGHT. SHRAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY  
DURING TUE...INTO TUE NIGHT. PERIODS OF REDUCED AVIATION  
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING TIMES OF PRECIPITATION.  
DRY/VFR WED AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE N.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
LOW VISIBILITY IN FOG (<1 NM) CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE NORTHERN  
COASTAL WATERS AND THE UPPER BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON TRENDS  
IN THE LATEST OBS WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NORTH OF  
WINDMILL PT THRU 7 AM AND ALSO FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF  
PARRAMORE ISLAND.  
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE DELMARVA EARLY THIS  
MORNING WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY IN LIGHT ONSHORE E/NE FLOW. SOUTH OF  
THE BOUNDARY WINDS ARE S AT 10 KT OR LESS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL  
EVENTUALLY GET PULLED BACK NORTH OF THE DELMARVA LATER THIS MORNING  
WITH IMPROVING VISIBILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND WINDS  
BECOMING S 5 TO 15 KT ALL AREAS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH  
PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST. WINDS S TO SW 10 TO 15 KT  
CONTINUES TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. SEAS 2-4 FT; WAVES 1-2 FT.  
 
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS THE LOCAL  
AREA LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED MORNING. WINDS S/SW 10-15 KT TUE AFTN  
WILL BECOME W/NW 10-15 KT TUE NIGHT THEN N-NE 10-15 KT ON WED. DO  
NOT EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO BE MET THRU WED.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N FOR WED NIGHT AND THU WITH  
NE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS, BECOMING E BY LATE THU. SEAS 2-4 FT; WAVES  
1-3 FT THRU THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB  
NEAR TERM...AJB  
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB  
LONG TERM...TMG  
AVIATION...ALB  
MARINE...JDM  
 
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