359  
FXUS61 KRLX 251513  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
1113 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COOLER THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDING  
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS, EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. DRY MIDWEEK UNDER  
HIGH PRESSURE. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TAKES HOLD LATE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 615 AM SUNDAY...  
 
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NECESSARY.  
 
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...  
 
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE KENTUCKY. WATERS  
WILL RECEDE SLOWLY IN MANY LOCATIONS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S  
LOWLANDS RANGING TO AROUND 70F HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG COULD  
BE POSSIBLE LATER OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 435 AM SUNDAY...  
 
MONDAY BRINGS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR ON A WEAK, DRY  
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE HARDLY NOTICEABLE. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES  
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.  
 
A STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE  
TROUGH CROSS OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE  
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS BEING THE LAST AND STRONGEST  
OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH, AND THAT IT CAN  
GARNER ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HEAT OF  
THE DAY TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE EXODUS  
OF THE SYSTEM IS SUCH THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE  
DOWN AND/OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A CLEAR, CALM NIGHT,  
WHICH THEN SETS UP A GORGEOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH BOUNTIFUL  
SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLY LOW HUMIDITY, ESPECIALLY FOR LATE  
JUNE.  
 
AS THE HIGH EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF  
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR ENSUES.  
 
CENTRAL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ACCEPTED, BELOW NORMAL EARLY ON,  
THEN GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 435 AM SUNDAY...  
 
UPPER LEVEL LOW FLATTENS THIS PERIOD, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
EXITS. THIS RESULTS IN A LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF  
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR, BENEATH WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL  
FLOW. WITH RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW, THIS WILL BRING AN  
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE  
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY, AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE AREA ON FRIDAY,  
THE THUNDERSTORMS BEING MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.  
 
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES FURTHER SATURDAY,  
AS A COLD FRONT, AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH,  
APPROACH. THIS FEATURE MAY PUSH ON THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  
 
CENTRAL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ACCEPTED, WHICH ARE A LITTLE  
ABOVE NORMAL. THE LATEST MEX IS EVEN HIGHER FOR HIGHS THURSDAY  
AND FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1110 AM SUNDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FLOW  
WILL BE MAINLY WEST TODAY TURNING CALM TONIGHT.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z  
MONDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE EXCEPT FOG POSSIBLE KEKN.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02  
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
 
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...  
IFR POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM  
NEAR TERM...ARJ  
SHORT TERM...TRM  
LONG TERM...TRM  
AVIATION...JW  
 
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