800  
FXUS61 KRLX 010059  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
859 PM EDT SUN APR 30 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COLD FRONT MONDAY. UPPER LOW WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER TO END THE WORK  
WEEK. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 845 PM SUNDAY...  
WEAKENING LINE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST THRU  
CENTRAL KY AT TIME. UPDATED TO INCLUDE A SMALL POP INTO  
NORTHEAST KY AND SOUTHEAST OH COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE  
THIS LEADING LINE DISSIPATES. THEN, AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST,  
MAIN BAND COMES IN MONDAY MORNING.  
 
AS OF 214 PM SUNDAY...  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WITH WINDS  
NOT EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE TONIGHT DUE TO A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT,  
WILL GO ABOVE MOS LOWS AT ALL SITES.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY. WITH THE FRONT BEING  
FAIRLY STRONG, MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME GOOD LIFT. THERE IS ALSO SOME  
UPPER AIR SUPPORT. THEREFORE, WILL INCREASE THE POPS SOME. WILL ALSO  
ADJUST THE TIMING A BIT AND TIGHTEN UP THE POP GRADIENT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...  
 
A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS,  
ACCENTUATED IN THE AFTERNOON BY DECENT MIXING WINDS. INCREASING  
CLOUDS BY WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING LATE AS LOW  
LEVEL WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY...  
 
STILL SEEING MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE  
OMEGA BLOCK AND SUBSEQUENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART  
OF THE COUNTRY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE THE SUPERBLEND FOR  
SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS WHICH FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE COOL  
AIR BUT INTRODUCING A RATHER WET PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
01Z MONDAY THRU 00Z TUESDAY... AS OF 850 PM SUNDAY...  
 
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA  
MONDAY.  
 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT, VFR WITH LOWERING MID TO HIGH  
CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY EDGE INTO  
INTO OUR AREA WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT MOSTLY  
8 TO 13 KTS, HIGHER IN MOUNTAINS.  
 
AFTER 12Z, LOOK FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG  
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, GENERALLY LASTING FOR A 2 OR 3 HOUR  
PREVAILING CONDITIONS IN THE THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE  
VFR TO MVFR, BUT LOCALLY IFR IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. GUSTY  
SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME HIGHER  
GUSTS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AT THE SAME SPEEDS.  
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO 40 KTS,  
ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SCT  
STRATOCU IN A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD ADVECTION VFR  
STRATOCU WILL RUSH BACK IN BEHIND THE DRY SLOT LATE ON MONDAY  
WITH WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING BY 00Z WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE FRONT MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR  
TWO.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE MON 05/01/17  
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11  
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
 
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...  
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/JW  
NEAR TERM...RPY/JMV  
SHORT TERM...30  
LONG TERM...30  
AVIATION...JMV  
 
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