161  
FXUS61 KRLX 220145  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
945 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD TODAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES  
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO END THE WORK WEEK BUT MORE  
UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 945 PM MONDAY...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS  
PARTS OF THE NE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THOSE AREAS. HAVE UPDATED POP BASED ON  
LATEST RADAR AND MESO MODEL TRENDS. COMPLEX CURRENTLY ACROSS NWS  
ILN'S AREA IN OHIO WILL LIKELY CLIP OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES  
TONIGHT. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE WATER ISSUES IN AREAS  
HIT BY STORMS EARLIER TODAY, WHERE PARTS OF ATHENS AND  
WASHINGTON COUNTY RECEIVED OVER 2 INCHES IN SOME ISOLATED SPOTS.  
 
AS OF 510 PM MONDAY...INCREASED POP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH  
THUNDERSTORMS BEING MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.  
RADAR IS INDICATING NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE BEEN  
THE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTION TO INITIATE. SOME STORMS HAVE BEEN  
ABLE TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS AND THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO  
THIS EVENING UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET. FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A  
CONCERN AT THIS TIME.  
 
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...  
 
FRONT WHICH WAS STALLED NEAR I-64 IS STARTING TO DRIFT BACK  
NORTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... A TREND WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE REMAINING OF THE AFTERNOON. STARTING TO GET SHOWERS  
POPPING UP NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL ALSO  
GRADUALLY EXPAND IN THE INSTABILITY OF THE WARM SECTOR THIS  
AFTERNOON AND DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THIS EVENING. ALSO CURRENTLY HAVE  
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING THE FAR NW FORECAST  
AREA WHICH. MODELS HAD BEEN STRUGGLING A BIT WITH ACTIVITY  
NORTH OF THE FRONT, BUT HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO THIS  
AND CARRIES IT ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT  
COUPLE HOURS. SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT TODAY -- 0-6KM BULK  
SHEAR MAXES OUT AROUND 25KTS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH, BUT WITH  
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE  
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW AND HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. WITH SLOWER STORM  
MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ANY REPETITIVE  
CELLS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED WATER CONCERNS.  
 
IN A RATHER JUICY ATMOSPHERE THINK AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT SO  
KEPT POPS GOING.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY. AHEAD OF  
THIS FRONT WE SHOULD SEE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DID GO WITH AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS  
CROSSING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN  
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE  
COLD FRONT. WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND ALL DAY, INSTABILITY IS  
PRETTY SPARSE, BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SOME  
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM OR TWO IS  
POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 344 PM TUESDAY...  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY  
MORNING WITH A GOOD CHANCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A  
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON  
AND PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 50S  
BEHIND THE FRONT SO A DRY AND RATHER COMFORTABLE PERIOD IS  
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 344 PM TUESDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, AND RETURN FLOW  
BEGINS TO TRANSPORT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD  
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO OUR AREA.  
DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND THERE WILL BE  
A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND/OR STORM TO DEVELOP OVER OUR  
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL THEN  
EXPAND NORTHWARD SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GENERALLY KEPT WITH  
THE BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST TO WASH OUT  
ANY MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW FAST THE MOISTURE RETURNS  
AND THE TRACK OF THE RESPONSIBLE STORM SYSTEM WHICH DEVELOPS  
OVER THE GULF. THIS RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE  
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, DROPPING TO  
THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ON MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 810 PM MONDAY...  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMING TO AN END OVER THE NEXT  
COUPLE HOURS WITH ONLY EKN AND CKB STILL LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED.  
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS. SHOULD  
BE SOME CLOUD COVER REMAINING TONIGHT, BUT UNCERTAIN AT THIS  
TIME THAT EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER IF WE WILL SEE FOG DEVELOP.  
WITH THE RAINFALL AND MOIST GROUND, FOG WILL BE LIKELY IF ANY  
SITES ARE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT KICKED  
OFF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL REMAIN IN  
OUR VICINITY TOMORROW, AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY  
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: POSSIBLE FOG OVERNIGHT AND SOME SITES COULD  
SEE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE TUE 05/22/18  
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11  
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H M M L  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
 
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...  
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO TUESDAY  
NIGHT.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30  
NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK  
SHORT TERM...ABE  
LONG TERM...ABE/30  
AVIATION...MPK  
 
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