630
FXUS61 KRLX 050229
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1016 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND LOW FOR DRIER WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
UPDATED FORECAST TO FOLLOW LATEST RADAR TRENDS. RADAR IMAGES SHOW
AREAS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN HAVE DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRD OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. MODERATE
RAIN CONTINUES ALONG THE OH RIVER BETWEEN OH AND KY...MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WV AND KY BORDER OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL AREAS
PRECIPITATION ARE EVIDENT ACROSS CENTRAL OH...MOVING EAST...AND WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF WV OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN FROM 06Z TO 12Z. ALL
MODELS BRING PCPN TO AN END FROM PKB...TO CRW AND HTS BY 15Z SUN...
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 18-21Z.
SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVES LOW CLOUDS IN ITS
WAKE BUT ONLY FOR A TIME AS MODELS INSIST ON DRY ADVECTION LIMITING
MOISTURE TO JUST THE BOUNDARY LAYER LASTER IN THE NIGHT. THIS THEN
WOULD FAVOR POST RAIN FOG THOUGH KICKED THE CAN ON INCLUSION FOR
NOW. HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE AIR TAKE OVER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
PERIOD.
USED AN AVERAGE OF THE NUMBERS FOR LOWS SUN NT WITH A LARGE
DISPARITY AT EKN A FUNCTION OF WHETHER IT CLEARS. HIGHS MON LOOKED
GOOD FROM PREV PACKAGE AND LATEST NUMBERS. DROPPED LOWS A LITTLE
TOWARD THE LOWER MAV MON NT AS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE OR NO
IMPEDIMENT TO RADIATIVE COOLING. ALSO LOWERED HIGHS TUE PER LOWER
MEX WITH COOL CANADIAN AIR IN CONTROL BUT MEX IS TOO LOW TUE NT IF
NAM12 IS RIGHT WITH WSW FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE N...STUCK WITH PREV FCST. OTHER MODELS ARE DRY
COMPARED WITH MOISTURE LADEN LOOK OF THE NAM12.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WENT MOSTLY WITH ECMWF PER HPC AND ISC. NW FLOW REGIME PERSISTS
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONTINUED WITH DRY SOLN FOR NOW WITH
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SE...MOST OF ITS ENERGY PASSING NE
OF THE FCST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK AS HEIGHTS BUILD SOMEWHAT. NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES SAT DAY 7 PER ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY A BLEND OF ONGOING...GFS AND HPC...WITH THE
DRY WEATHER ACTUALLY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER
DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...BECAUSE THE HEIGHTS COME UP. THE NIGHTS
REMAIN TOLERABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EXCEPT FRI NT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECASTED MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH RAIN TO 2500 FT THRU
06Z...DETERIORATING TO LOW MVFR 1600 FT FROM 06-13Z ACROSS
CRW...BKW...AND HTS. CRW AND BKW COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT. NORTHERN SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE ANY RAIN SHOWERS.
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE SUN MORNING...PERHAPS SPREADING FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING HTS AND PKB AROUND 15-17Z.
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND THE
SOUTHERN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ
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