974
FXUS61 KRLX 210521
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1221 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
SYNOPSIS
DRY AIR REMAINS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST DOWN TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WV...AND UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS INCLUDING PKB...CKB
AND EKN DUE TO MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OF THE AREA WILL LOWER INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S AS GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ACROSS...BUT SHOULD NOT INFLUENCE RADIATIONAL COOLING
MUCH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
THE REST OF THE AREA...ALREADY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
FOR THE NEAR TERM...CREATING DRY CONDITIONS. MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAS DISSIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CU CONTINUES TO REMAIN.
ALSO...MUCH OF THE CU THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
LOWLANDS HAS MIXED OUT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE DRIER AIR ALOFT.
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
STILL THINKING SOME LIGHT PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
MORNING IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP...AS TEMPS NOT EXPECTED NOT TO COOL TO FORECAST
DEW PTS. ALTHOUGH CIRRUS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY...SHOULD BE
THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH WAA WILL ALLOW FOR A NICE WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
MODELS ARE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THE WESTERN GULF SYSTEM...AND
HAVE IT WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FIELDS LOOK A BIT LESS ORGANIZED...WARRANTING A DECREASE OF
THE POPS IN THE LOWLANDS. SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE STILL LOOKS TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT PLAYER IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WHERE WE WILL SEE THE
HIGHEST POPS...AND COULD SEE SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THIS WILL NOT NECESSARILY EQUATE TO A CLEAR SKY HOWEVER.
WILL EXPERIENCE MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF THE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RESULT OF THE FLOW.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
SAME BASIC TRENDS AS YESTERDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS THE FASTEST
IN THE COOL DOWN...WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF SLOWER.
MAIN THEME IN OUR FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE GRADUAL COOL
DOWN...WITH NO SUDDEN OR SHARP CHANGE. ALSO NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION
EVENT DURING THIS PERIOD...GOOD NEWS FOR TRAVELERS.
LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH WARMING IN LOW
LEVELS THOUGHT WE COULD KEEP POP AOB 14 PCT 00Z TUESDAY TO 12Z
TUESDAY.
LEFT OUR MEDIUM RANGE HPC LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR POSSIBLE SHOWER WITH INITIAL COLD FRONT. LULL IN POPS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO OUR CHANCE POP RANGE WITH
MID/UPPER AIR TROF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DID HAVE A SMALL
LIKELY POP AREA AROUND ELKINS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
FIGURING ON LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING SOUTHWEST. I AM A BIT WARMER THAN MY NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...STILL HAVE THE AXIS OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
NOT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
THINKING SOME OF THE WESTERN LOWLANDS...AT LEAST HAVE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. IF SO...WOULD BE THEIR FIRST
FLAKES. THIS IS UNUSUALLY LATE FOR THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON.
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS MONTH HAVE BEEN AVERAGING 3 TO 4 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
06Z SATURDAY THRU 06Z SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOUT 3500-4500 FT AGL
WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
MODELS INDICATE THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTIONUE INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THAT REGION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS POSSIBLE PRODUCING IFR
VISIBILITIES AT CRW...HTS AND EKN. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
LIFT/DISSIPATE AFT 13Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY.
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AND SOUTHERN WV ON
SUNDAY IN RAIN.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KTB/26/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JSH
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