846
FXUS61 KRLX 071942
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
222 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY. FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY
WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE FOR MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF NAM AND GFS HAD 850 MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF FORECAST AREA BUT NEW RUN OF GFS CUTS WAY BACK ON MOISTURE SO
HAVE CUT BACK ON CLOUDS OVER NIGHT. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
FORECAST. SUNDAY FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVED WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEW POINTS AND NO WIND ISSUES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEPARATION BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTHWARD...AND THE INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. EVEN THE STUBBORN OUTLIER CANADIAN
MODEL SUGGESTS A BIT MORE SEPARATION THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. EXPECT THE
GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM AND ITS DEEP MOISTURE TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ITS LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GO MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THUS...MAJORITY OF MODELS STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD OUR AREA BEING IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
HAVE OPTED TO GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF POPS AND MINIMIZE QPF.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 70S MONDAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIP HOLDING OFF
TIL TUESDAY. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
FRONT PUSHES THRU TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS EXITING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND FEW CLOUDS. FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
FEEL MEX NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY TOO WARM...SO HAVE GONE WITH HPC
NUMBERS WITH SOME TWEAKS.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AAR/JMV/RPY
NEAR TERM...AAR
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...AAR
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