169  
FXUS61 KRLX 271031  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
631 AM EDT MON MAR 27 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ACTIVE, MILD PATTERN CONTINUES IN A PARADE OF SOUTHERN STREAM  
SYSTEMS. THE FIRST SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH  
ANOTHER CROSSING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AND THEN ANOTHER  
FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...  
 
STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NE CWA. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY  
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.  
 
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...  
 
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONE LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBLE  
LINGERING SHOWER, HOWEVER FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IT SHOULD  
BE DRY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A SURFACE  
LOW WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS  
AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE  
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SOME  
THUNDER. MODELS DO SHOW SOME DECENT CAPE -- 500-800 J/KG IN THE  
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE ON SHEAR --  
HOWEVER THE RAP SHOWS AN AREA OF 40-50KTS BULK SHEAR ALONG AND  
WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS  
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE IS A LOW END  
CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM MAKING IT INTO THE TRI-STATE LATER  
TODAY. GENERALLY LOOKING AT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS  
AROUND 0.25-0.5" LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD  
BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER, CLOSER TO THE LOW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...  
 
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSS REGION  
TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALL PARAMETERS  
SHOW LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. A RIDGE OF  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS SYSTEMS' WAKE AND KEEPS US DRY INTO  
THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 350 AM MONDAY...  
 
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS  
SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED THAN THE OTHER SYSTEMS THIS  
WEEK, BUT NOT MY MUCH. SO MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED WITH  
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH AS A RESULT OF THE ACTIVE PATTERN WATER  
ISSUES MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE AS SOILS SATURATE THOUGH THE  
BREAKS BETWEEN SYSTEMS OBVIOUSLY HELP. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER DRY BREAK WITH COOLER  
TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE FREEZING - EVEN FOR THE MOUNTAINS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...  
 
SOME SCATTERED FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING, HOWEVER WITH A PUFF  
OF BREEZE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT AT TAF SITES. IFR CEILINGS  
PRETTY CLOSE TO PKB. LOW CHANCE THESE COULD MAKE IT TO THE  
AIRPORT, BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IFR IN TAF. ANY LINGERING MVFR  
WILL CLEAR OUT IN NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VFR FOR MOST OF TODAY.  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST  
LATE TODAY, REMAINING AROUND INTO TONIGHT. MAY HAVE MVFR TO IFR  
WITH THESE.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR CEILINGS MAY MAKE IT INTO PKB EARLY  
THIS MORNING, BUT IF SO NOT LAST VERY LONG. TIMING AND CATEGORY  
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21  
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M  
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M L H H H H H M M  
PKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H M H H M M  
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H L L H H H H H M M  
 
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...  
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. IFR POSSIBLE  
IN THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ  
NEAR TERM...MZ  
SHORT TERM...JW  
LONG TERM...JW  
AVIATION...MZ  
 
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