495
FXUS61 KRLX 091054
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
552 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TUESDAY. COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SNOW HAS BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS MORNING IN A NORTHEASTWARD
PUSH WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT NOW HAVING ARRIVED. SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST
PRESSING ISSUE TODAY IS THE BEHAVIOR OF THE TEMPERATURES BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.
BELIEVE WE HAVE HIT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT THIS POINT...AND HAVE A
SLOW TREND UPWARDS IN THE FORECAST...SLIGHTLY MORE ACCELERATED FOR
THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR EARLIER.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A RELATIVELY QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN
ACROSS THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS LATE MORNING...WITH BRIEF MOMENTS
OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...THIS PERIOD OF
SLEET MAY EXIST FOR A MODESTLY LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS MOST LIKELY WILL NOT TRANSITION AWAY FROM SNOW...AND THE
SAME FOR PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES. OTHER SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES
COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING AND
WILL TREK WEST TO EAST...WITH THE MAIN PRESSURE TROUGH OUT OF THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DESCENDING AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
MAKE THINGS ON THE GUSTY SIDE. AFTER A DRY SLOT PUSHES
THROUGH...WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL COMMENCE AS THE FLOW BEGINS A SLOW
TRANSITION TO THE NORTHWEST/UPSLOPE FAVORED CONDITIONS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO TRICKY GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
CHANGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SNOW THAT ACCUMULATES THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY MELT IN RAIN LATER TODAY. THEREFORE...BETTER
OVERALL STORM ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BETTER IN FAR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
WILL END THIS HERE...LOTS OF PRODUCTS TO SEND OUT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS SRN STREAM SYSTEM
TRIES TO GET ORGANIZED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH DIFFERENCES NOTED IN
THE DETAILS.
PCPN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER CENTRAL WV THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ONCE COLD AIR SWEEPS
IN...THE UPSLOPE SNOW MACHINE CRANKS UP WEDNESDAY ON BRISK NW WINDS
AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. KEPT DECENT POPS IN PLACE AS 85H
THERMAL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG EASTERN WV. WINTER STORM WARNING
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS OF WV EAST OF THE OH
RIVER TIL 7AM THURSDAY.
MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR TEMPS...USED GMOS BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MODELS SHOWING A GOOD UPSLOPE EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
NORTH. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE UPSLOPE TAILS OFF LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW THE COLD PATTERN HOLDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL PATTERN...
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF THIS FORECAST IS LOW.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA WITH IFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS...AND
WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS TO RAIN LATER THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION...AND WILL SEE SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING DESPITE THE
PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS COULD
BECOME MVFR...WITH ISOLATED VFR...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO
SNOW...RESULTING IN IFR ONCE AGAIN. SLEET POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING BKW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AS SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...WITH ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SNOW AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ005>007-
009>011-017>020-027>032-035>040-046-047.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
WVZ033>038-046-047.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ008-
013>016-024>026-033-034.
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
VAZ003-004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
004.
SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26
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