600  
FXUS61 KRLX 181324  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
924 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY  
THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 920 AM WEDNESDAY...  
 
FOG IS MIXING OUT OF THE VALLEYS AS THE TEMPERATURE INCREASES.  
EXPECTING A QUIET DAY. NO FORECAST CHANGES.  
 
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...  
 
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRIER AIR  
MOVING IN BEHIND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE GREAT  
LAKES. AT THE LOWER LEVELS, THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE  
REMAINING, SO VALLEY FOG WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING  
HOURS.  
 
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE ON TAP TODAY TO HELP MIX OUT THE  
BOUNDARY LAYER FOR AN EARLY BURN-OFF OF ANY MORNING FOG THAT  
DOES DEVELOPS.  
 
5H TOUGH AXIS SLIPS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A MODEST  
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A  
REPEAT OF EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING  
HOURS THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION  
DEVELOPMENT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE PIVOTING FROM GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC  
PROVIDES ANOTHER NICE DAY FOR MOST ON THURSDAY. THE ONLY CAVEAT  
IS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY FLOW INDUCED BY THE SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OR  
STORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN SW VA AND PERHAPS EXTREME  
SOUTHERN WV GIVEN THE UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE.  
 
WINDS CONTINUE TO PIVOT FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH  
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, INCREASING MOISTURE, CLOUDS, AND  
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT LOWLAND HIGHS IN  
THE MID-80'S WITH DEW POINTS CREEPING TO NEAR 70 DEGREES FRIDAY.  
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MID-  
OHIO VALLEY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN  
APPROACHING TROUGH. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD AS  
PWAT INCREASES TH 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF UPPER-LEVEL  
SUPPORT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...  
 
A SURFACE LOW STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND BENEATH A SLOW-MOVING TROUGH, KEEPING SHOWERS AND  
AFTERNOON STORMS GOING RIGHT INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. A BREAK  
IS POSSIBLE AS THE SURFACE LOW EVENTUALLY FILLS IN MONDAY/EARLY  
TUESDAY, HOWEVER TROUGHING ALOFT KEEPS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS  
INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN A STRONGER FRONT IS MODELED TO MOVE  
THROUGH AND CLEAR THE AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 625 AM WEDNESDAY...  
 
AFTER RIVER VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING EXPECT VFR FLIGHT  
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z. RIVER FOG REDEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY  
MORNING AFTER 06Z. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE WEAK WITH LIGHT FLOW  
EXPECTED.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY  
TONIGHT.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23  
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19  
CRW CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY M L M M H H H H H H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...  
MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...KMC/MC  
NEAR TERM...KMC/26  
SHORT TERM...MC  
LONG TERM...MC  
AVIATION...KMC  
 
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