468
FXUS61 KRLX 070223
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1018 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY APPROACH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/
LAST EVENING THUNDERSTORM FINALLY DYING OUT ACROSS LAWRENCE CO. KY.
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY TOWARD MIDNIGHT KEEPING THE
AREA MOSTLY DRY. SENT AN UPDATE ON POPS AND WEATHER STARTING EARLIER
THE FOG.
SOME CLEARING IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF. EXPECT FOG DEVELOPING OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN...AND ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. THE FIRST TO FOG WILL BE THE
TYGART RIVER VALLEY WHERE EKN HAS A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 2 DEGREES
ALREADY.
CONTINUED WITH AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING
AGAIN...LASTING LONGER THAN CLIMATOLOGY AS OVERALL CONDITIONS DO NOT
CHANGE MUCH...THOUGH EXPECT THIS MORNING WILL PROVE TO BE SOMEWHAT
OF A SPIKE AS FAR AS LOW CLOUDS/FOG PERSISTENCE.
ONCE THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF MON...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FIRE AGAIN BUT...WITH UPPER LOW A BIT FARTHER E...THE STORMS SHOULD
BE EVEN MORE FAVORED IN THE MOUNTAINS THAN TODAY.
SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS PERIOD...WITH ONLY SOME
SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES. BOTH MODELS SHOW A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES
IN ON WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
OPERATIONAL ECWMF AND GFS HAVE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE. ECMWF WANTS TO BUILD IN MORE RIDGING...WHICH IS IN
CONTRAST TO THE RUN YESTERDAY. GFS IS ALSO NOT CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN DUE TO DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL BY 03Z...DETERIORATING INTO LIFR AROUND 05Z. FOG WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT BY 13Z AT MOST SITES.
WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND DIURNAL
HEATING...AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ON
MONDAY DESPITE MODELS SUGGESTING DRY CONDITIONS. INCLUDED THE
MENTION OF CB AT CRW...EKN AND BKW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GFS AND NAM12 SHOW MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DRIFTING
SLOWLY EAST AND BECOMING A CLOSE LOW OVER WV BY MONDAY
EVENING...WITH A VORTICITY MAX AT ITS CENTER.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 00Z TUE/...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG IN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE MON NT INTO TUE MORNING...AND IN THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUE NT AND WED.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page