181  
FXUS61 KBTV 290311  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
1111 PM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH  
A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE  
FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY OVER THE HIGH  
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY  
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST ACROSS  
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE  
NORTH COUNTRY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 1108 PM EDT TUESDAY...PATCHY DRIZZLE, ISOLATED -RW, AND LOW  
CEILINGS PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING, WITH  
TEMPS AT 03Z MAINLY 34-38F. MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF NOTE IS  
THE RELATIVELY COMPACT, VERTICALLY STACKED LOW EXITING EAST OF  
NJ. MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO  
OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, AS THE LOW TRACKS EWD, WILL SEE INCREASING  
N-NW WINDS, WHICH WILL INDUCE LOW-LEVEL CAA THRU THE REMAINDER  
OF THE OVERNIGHT. GRADUALLY COOLING THERMAL PROFILES WILL ALLOW  
FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS WE MOVE TOWARD 04-05Z ALONG THE INTL  
BORDER, AND ELSEWHERE AFTER 06Z. ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT  
WITH OROGRAPHICS EFFECTS PROVIDING PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM.  
DESPITE THE LOW- LEVEL CAA, CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO  
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S,  
EXCEPT IN THE 20S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
 
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING  
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY,  
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN  
MOUNTAINS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...ANY RESIDUAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS  
SHOULD COME TO AN END EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND  
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING  
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE  
REGION WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE  
OF SNOW LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND APPROACHING DAYBREAK  
ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM NORTH  
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY WITH WARMING  
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY IN SOUTHERLY FLOW CHANGING SNOW TO  
MOSTLY SNOW. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF QPF ON EASTERN SLOPES EXPECTED  
WITH SHADOWING EFFECTS ON LEEWARD SLOPES AND VALLEYS. HEADING  
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING, WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT  
IN WINTRY MIX STARTING OVER NORTHERN NY AND SPREADING EASTWARD  
INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. NORTHEAST  
KINGDOM HAS BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY  
MORNING. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS THE MAIN  
COASTAL LOW PULLS EAST AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT  
PROVIDED LIFT FOR WINTRY MIX WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITH  
GENERALLY DRYING CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NW UPSLOPE  
PRECIP POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A MIX OF MVFR TO LIFR CONTINUES ACROSS  
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MIX AND A BOUNCING BETWEEN LOWER  
CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS  
OF FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TONIGHT, WITH MVFR- IFR VSBYS.  
GENERALLY EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO SEE IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY  
BACK TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.  
 
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 05-10 KNOTS WITH  
SOME GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...  
 
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SNOW  
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.  
 
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND  
SNOW.  
 
06Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...WGH  
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH  
SHORT TERM...WGH  
LONG TERM...KGM  
AVIATION...KGM/MV  
 
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