403  
FXUS61 KBTV 212357  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
757 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH  
TUESDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER AND A LONG AWAITED RETURN OF WARMER  
WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL OCCURS BY WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE  
NORTHEAST.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 732 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS  
EVENING. THERE ARE JUST A FEW CLOUDS HANGING ON IN THE NORTHEAST  
KINGDOM; OTHERWISE, CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL  
IN THE MID 40S-LOWER 50S, BUT THESE WILL DROP QUICKLY ONCE THE  
SUNSETS GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. NO SIGNIFICANT  
CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OUR LONG-AWAITED STRETCH OF MILDER  
SPRING WEATHER HAS FINALLY ARRIVED THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPANSIVE  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE.  
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED QUITE NICELY, REACHING 54F  
HERE AT KBTV AS OF MID-AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE  
TRENDED SUPERADIABATIC IN THE LOWER FEW HUNDRED METERS. THIS HAS  
ALSO FOSTERED SOME MODESTLY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25  
MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS  
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DEEPENED TO APPROXIMATELY 850 MB.  
 
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE  
AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. EXPECT WIDER THAN  
NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES AS THE DRY NATURE OF THE AIRMASS  
FOSTERS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER  
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, BLENDED MOS-BASED GUIDANCE WAS  
LEANED UPON QUITE HEAVILY TO GOVERN DAILY SPREADS OFFERING LOWS  
MAINLY IN THE 20S FOR BOTH NIGHTS WITH CUSTOMARY VARIABILITY AS THE  
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HOLDS A TAD MILDER AND PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS  
FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THIS PREDICATED  
RAISING INHERITED MAXIMUM VALUES BY SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES AS READINGS  
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND RANGING  
THROUGH THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS. WINDS TO REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWEST,  
BUT A LITTLE LESS GUSTY THAN TODAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING AS SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS FA AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. 850MB  
TEMPS 3-4C AND 925MB TEMPS 8-9C THUS LOOKING AT L-M60S POSSIBLE  
FOR MONDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING BEGINNING  
TO SLIDE EAST ON TUESDAY WITH SSW FLOW AND INCREASE IN HIGH-MID  
LEVEL MOISTURE, THUS INCREASING CLOUDS. 850MB TEMPS 4C AND  
925MB TEMPS 9-11C THUS LOOKING AT M60S PERHAPS EVEN SOME U60S IF  
CLOUD COVER IS SLOWER TO ADVANCE.  
 
BY TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY POTENTIAL WEAK, DIFFUSE PHASING OF  
NORTHERN-SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO  
VALLEY. GIVEN IT'S WEAK AND DIFFUSE, THE DETAILS IN TIMING OF  
PRECIPITATION WED-FRIDAY.  
 
PREVIOUS SHIFT SUMMARIZED THIS PERIOD WELL. THE GFS SUGGESTS LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY, AND AGAIN FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SUGGEST A  
MORE PHASED SOLN WITH A CONSOLIDATED COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY, WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF  
THE PATTERN IS CONSIDERED LOWER THAN NORMAL. AT THIS POINT, HAVE  
INDICATED LOW LIKELY POPS (50- 60%) FOR WED/WED NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY  
CHANCE POPS (30-40%) THU-FRI FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS. NOT  
EXPECTING ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND  
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES,  
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 50S FOR WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND  
FRIDAY, AND LOWS IN THE UPR 30S-MID 40S.  
 
POTENTIAL GREATER PHASING ON SAT, YET DETAILS STILL DIFFER SHOULD  
MEAN SATURDAY IS A WETTER DAY THAN FRIDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE  
LARGELY ELONGATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  
 
LOOKING AT HYDRO...STILL DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND  
UPCOMING WEATHER WILL PROMOTE SNOW MELT, ESPECIALLY MONDAY-TUESDAY.  
HOWEVER, RAINFALL SEEMS SHOWERY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LARGELY AROUND  
1/2 INCH FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. MOUNTAIN WATERSHEDS WILL SEE RISES  
THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL  
BUT ALL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND CLIMATOLOGY SUGGEST MORE RAIN IS  
NEEDED FOR ANY ISSUES. STILL WORTH LOOKING AT FUTURE FORECASTS FOR  
ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED  
FAIR WX CLOUDS WITH BASES FROM 050-080 AGL THROUGH 00Z,  
OTHERWISE SKC WITH NO PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO  
VISIBILITY EXPECTED. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST 8-12 KTS WITH  
OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 23Z, ABATING TO  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THEN LIGHT WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ONCE  
AGAIN AFTER 14Z SUNDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: MVFR. LIKELY SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA.  
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JMG  
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/JMG  
SHORT TERM...SLW  
LONG TERM...SLW  
AVIATION...HASTINGS/JMG  
 
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