997  
FXUS61 KBTV 241349  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
949 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DEEP MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH  
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...THE THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS...PATCHY  
DRIZZLE AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN  
SOUTHERN VERMONT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE  
REGION. EVENTUALLY THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT  
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA WITH DRIER AIR  
RETURNING TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RETURNING TO  
SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 947 AM EDT SUNDAY...A NEAR-SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND  
LIGHT FLOW HAS LED TO PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AND LOOKS LIKE  
IT WILL GRADUALLY DRY UP EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT WILL  
CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE AREA IS ENTRENCHED IN  
MARITIME MOISTURE WITH A COLD FRONT UP . WE WILL LOSE THE FOG SUNDAY MORNING BUT  
EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERSTO OUT NORTH AND  
A WEAK WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER SOUTHERN  
VT IN THE LOWER 60S AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO  
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND CAPE OVER SOUTHERN VT, THOUGH LATEST  
RAP IS 250 J/KG OR LESS KEEPING JUST A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDER  
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS  
ELSEWHERE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW NEAR KIAG  
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES  
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO  
AROUND 70 WITH LIGHT WINDS.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
 
MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL BETTER FORCING ARRIVES LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WHEN SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP  
ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST CAM MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SOME  
WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY UP TO 300-400 J/KG MUCAPE ACROSS  
SOUTHERN VERMONT SO WE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE CHANCE FOR SOME  
THUNDER THERE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG. HIGHS WILL BE  
ON THE COOL SIDE AGAIN TODAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S TO LOW  
70S.  
 
UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER  
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.  
LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS UNDER BLOCKED FLOW SO IT WILL  
TAKE UNTIL MID- DAY MONDAY FOR US TO SEE ANY SUBSTANTIAL  
CLEARING. THAT WILL BE A GOOD AND BAD THING THOUGH BECAUSE  
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL USHER IN SOME  
RATHER CHILLY AIR ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND +6C.  
SO THE GOOD THING IS THAT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP LOWS  
ONLY IN THE 50S. BAD PART IS THAT MONDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL  
SIDE OF NORMAL AS WELL, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS  
UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHEN BREAKS OF SUN WILL WARM HIGHS INTO  
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. COULD SEE SOME MODEST WIND GUSTS  
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL, BUT ONLY UP TOWARDS 20 MPH OR  
SO.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 451 AM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER TO START THE  
WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE WITH A DRY  
RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A CHILLY ONE AS THE  
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL  
COOLING. MOS GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO DIAL IN THE RADIATIONAL  
EFFECTS AND BOTH THE MAV AND MET ARE GOING WITH LOW 30S AT SLK.  
I OPTED TO GO WITH THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH A FORECAST LOW  
OF 32 AT SLK MONDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW  
TO MID 40S AND IN THE UPPER 40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.  
 
UNDER FULL SUNLIGHT WE'LL WARM UP TO THE MID 70S ON TUESDAY  
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS OUR  
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TUESDAY EVENING  
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST WITH  
LOWS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 451 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS MID WEEK AS  
THE RIDGE BREAK DOWNS ON TUESDAY EVENING AS A GREAT LAKES RUNNER  
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION. THE TREND IN THE  
FORECAST IS TO SLOW DOWN THE SPEED AT WHICH THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.  
HOWEVER THE THREAT OF MODERATE TO POTENTIA. WE WILL LOSE THE FOG SUNDAY MORNING BUT  
EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERSLLY LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAIN HASN'T DIMINISHED. THERE'S NOT REALLY ANY FORCING THAT  
WOULD MAKE ME THINK THUNDER UNTIL THURSDAY BUT WITH HIGH PWATS  
AND LARGE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS THE RAIN SHOWERS COULD BE QUITE  
EFFICIENT AND PRODUCE SOME BRIEF BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  
 
MOVING INTO THURSDAY THE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVOURABLE FOR  
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS A FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH. THERE'S  
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SHOWALTERS DO TURN NEGATIVE BRIEFLY IN  
THE MORNING SO I'VE CONTINUED TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF  
THUNDER THURSDAY THROUGH THE MORNING.  
AND OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST  
THINKING AS WE'RE IN- BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVERNIGHT WITH  
AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF STRATUS AND  
SOME AREAS OF FOG WHILE WE AWAIT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO A POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE  
OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON 925MB TEMPS WE COULD BE LOOKING AT  
SEVERAL DAYS OF UNPLEASANT AND AT TIMES DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT  
GIVEN THE LACK OF AIR CONDITIONING IN MANY BUILDINGS ACROSS THE  
NORTH COUNTRY. FORECAST TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE BOTH  
IN THE 90S WITH APPARENT TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO HEAT ADVISORY  
CRITERIA. WE'LL SEE HOW THE RIDGE PLAYS OUT BUT IF THE LATEST  
TRENDS CONTINUE I'D ANTICIPATE HEAT RELATED HAZARDS FOR MOST OF  
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.. WE WILL LOSE THE FOG SUNDAY MORNING BUT  
EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR WILL SLOWLY  
IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY 18-20Z. AFTER 20Z, MIX OF MVFR/VFR  
TRENDS BACK TO WIDESPREAD MVFR BY 00Z WITH LOCALIZED IFR  
POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS REDEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL BE  
LESS THAN 6KTS AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY  
SHRA.  
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,  
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF/SISSON  
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/SISSON  
SHORT TERM...DEAL  
LONG TERM...DEAL  
AVIATION...LAHIFF/SISSON  
 
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