067  
FXUS61 KBTV 201947  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
347 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE REGION THIS  
AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY, BUT AN ISOLATED  
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SATURDAY  
INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY WILL SEE MORE DRY AND SEASONABLE  
WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY BRINGS  
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL BE IN WEST TO  
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY LARGER SCALE  
FORCING. THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON SOME VERY ISOLATED  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES  
AND SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION ON WESTERN SIDE OF LAKE  
CHAMPLAIN. CONVECTION SO FAR IS ISOLATED IN NATURE AND SHOULD  
REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE ISOLATED  
POCKETS OF CAPE 500-2000 J/KG WHICH HAVE BEEN LINING UP SO FAR  
WITH THE ACTIVITY TO THIS POINT. IF THINGS HOLD, THE INSTABILITY  
SHOULD DROP OFF IN A FEW HOURS AND THE ACTIVITY ALONG WITH IT.  
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FOR MOST OF  
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND  
WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND COMBINED WITH  
ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SUFFICIENT  
INSTABILITY. BECAUSE OF THAT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF  
SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER THE  
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF VERMONT. AGAIN  
THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEAK AND DISORGANIZED. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY,  
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AGAIN LEADING TO ANOTHER DRY AND QUIET  
NIGHT.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE  
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WHILE LOWS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE  
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 314 PM EDT THURSDAY...LOOKING FOR A RELATIVELY DRY DAY ON  
SATURDAY WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK SFC  
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW-LEVEL WIND  
FIELDS ARE QUITE WEAK WITH FLAT P-GRADIENT, SO WINDS AREAWIDE  
SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 MPH. THE 850MB TEMPS PER 12Z GFS/ECMWF  
ARE NEAR +13C AT BTV AT 18Z SATURDAY, AND WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY  
SUNNY CONDITIONS, SHOULD SEE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S.  
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWER/ISOLD  
TSTM...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A  
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION (POPS 15-20%) IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST  
DURING THE MID AFTN THRU EARLY EVENING PERIOD AS A RESULT.  
 
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL  
BE ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING FRONTAL ZONE, WITH DEVELOPING  
ZONE OF 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE  
FORECAST AREA DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME NWP DIFFERENCES WITH  
12Z GFS SHOWING ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND WAA FURTHER NORTH ACROSS  
OUR REGION, WITH 12Z ECMWF SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS  
POINT, INCLUDED 30-40% POPS MAINLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR  
SHOWERS AND CHANCE FOR AN EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM.  
 
WILL SEE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS  
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, GENERALLY 20-40% POPS SUNDAY AND  
50-60% POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SRN HALF  
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS TIME FRAME, E-W BAROCLINIC  
ZONE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO CENTRAL NEW  
ENGLAND, WITH WEAK SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.  
IT APPEARS THAT BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT  
INTO MONDAY WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SERN ONTARIO.  
12Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS AT KRUT SUNDAY NIGHT INDICATE ELEVATED  
INSTABILITY AROUND 500 J/KG, SO MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE  
THUNDERSTORMS THRU THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS  
MID-UPR 70S SUNDAY, AND UPR 50S TO AROUND 60F FOR SUNDAY NIGHT  
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 314 PM EDT THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS  
EWD THRU THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH CONTINUED  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY MONDAY, KEEPING  
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. SHOULD TREND TOWARD COOLER AND  
DRIER WEATHER MID-WEEK AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF OUR  
LONGITUDE LATER MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE  
MID 70S TUE/WED. KEPT LINGERING 30% POPS TUESDAY AND DOWN 10%  
OR LESS INTO WED/THU.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH  
THE PERIOD. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING  
UP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND ACROSS  
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A  
LAKE BREEZE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT EAST BASED ON THE FLOW  
PATTERN. HAVE MENTION OF VICINITY SHOWERS AT KPBG/KBTV/KRUT  
00Z. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AT THESE LOCATIONS...VFR  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD RETURN  
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT KMPV AND KSLK THOUGH CONFIDENCE  
IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUS EVENINGS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT  
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
MONDAY: VFR/MVFR. CHANCE SHRA...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR/MVFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
TUESDAY: VFR/MVFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...VERASAMY  
NEAR TERM...VERASAMY  
SHORT TERM...BANACOS  
LONG TERM...BANACOS  
AVIATION...VERASAMY  
 
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