660  
FXUS61 KBTV 141416  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
1016 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK  
WILL BRING VARIABLY CLOUDY AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH  
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT, ALONG WITH BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE  
SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT  
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE ADIRONDACKS. SOME PARTLY SUNNY BREAKS  
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER  
70S TO LOWER 80S. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS  
ON THURSDAY. VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REACH  
THE LOW-MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1015 AM EDT TUESDAY...WENT AHEAD AND MADE SOME CHANGES TO  
THE POP GRIDS BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND WATER VAPOR  
IMAGERY. A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE  
NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD HELP INHIBIT WIDESPREAD  
RAINFALL EVEN WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE.  
HOWEVER, THIS DRY SLOT WILL HELP WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING  
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL HELP TO CREATE  
POCKETS OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL  
THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT (DON'T REACH 20 KTS  
OF FLOW UNTIL 20KFT) A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS APPEAR  
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON  
TRACK.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE 00Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE INDICATES A  
BIT MORE PRONOUNCED MID- LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING NWD INTO  
S-CENTRAL VT BY 12Z, AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH  
COUNTRY BY 18Z. THIS CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY AT 1145Z. AT  
THE SAME TIME, APPEARS BEST FORCING WILL PIVOT WWD, WITH MOST  
FREQUENT SHOWERS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND  
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY. WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING  
BY AFTERNOON, MAY SEE A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOP WITHIN  
THE DRYSLOT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE  
CENTRAL/SRN GREEN MTNS, AND ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.  
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WITH BEST PROSPECTS  
FOR THUNDER MID-LATE AFTN WITHIN THIS AREA OF POSSIBLE  
OROGRAPHIC INITIATION. COULD SEE LOCALLY 0.25-0.50" RAINFALL  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN GREENS, AND ALSO ACROSS SRN FRANKLIN  
NY/ST. LAWRENCE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE, AMTS SHOULD BE GENERALLY  
LESS THAN 0.25" WITH RAINFALL DURATION RELATIVELY SHORT. WITH  
WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS (74F AT BTV AT 0730Z), STAYED NEAR MOS  
CONSENSUS ON AFTERNOON HIGHS, WITH READINGS GENERALLY REACHING  
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  
 
MID-LEVEL LOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AND KICKS OUT  
ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, IN  
RESPONSE TO STRONGER MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING FROM  
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED ISOLD/SCT -SHRA  
TONIGHT, BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD DECREASING COVERAGE  
AND POPS (DIMINISHING TO AROUND 30-35% BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT) AS  
PW PLUME SHIFTS EAST OF VT. MAY SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF A FEW  
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING WEDNESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. OVERALL POPS ONLY 20-30% WITH ABSENCE  
OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL FORCING ON WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE CONTINUED  
MUGGY CONDITIONS, WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID-UPR 60S.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY LOW-MID 60S, FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY  
WARMER HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY, GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. WHILE NO  
SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS, WILL SEE  
S-SE WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT BECOME W-NW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS  
ON WEDNESDAY, AT SPEEDS OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 324 PM EDT MONDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE  
REGION FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CROSSING THE  
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND MOVING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE  
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. THE REGION WILL SEE A BRIEF UPTICK  
IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES  
THROUGH, BUT ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. BY DAY BREAK THURSDAY, DRIER  
AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT, AND ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WILL  
DISSIPATE. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ALOFT DURING THE DAY  
THURSDAY, SO EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
70S TO AROUND 80, AND HUMIDITY LEVELS BECOMING MUCH MORE  
COMFORTABLE AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 50S/LOW 60S. THERE IS  
SOME DISCREPANCY WITHIN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE  
FRONT (AND THE COOLER, DRIER AIR BEHIND IT) WILL REACH AS THE  
BOUNDARY BUMPS UP AGAINST RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. THINKING THE  
EAST/WEST ORIENTATED FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY  
DURING THE DAY, BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA LATERALLY. THUS,  
HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT FORECAST DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THE  
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND UP SLIGHTLY IN THE  
SOUTHERN PORTIONS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 324 PM EDT MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE  
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW/UPPER  
TROUGH TRANSIT THE GREAT LAKES REGION, INDUCING DEEP  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EAST COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD  
THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF  
THE CYCLONE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY  
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER, DRIER  
AIR SATURDAY. NOCTURNAL TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT  
INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, SO NOT EXPECTING  
THUNDERSTORMS SO LONG AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE  
OCCURS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENTLY FORECASTING THE  
COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK FOR SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY  
PREDICTED IN THE 70S. IF BURLINGTON'S STREAK OF 80+ DEGREE DAYS  
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, SATURDAY MAY BE THE DAY IT  
BREAKS. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD SUNDAY/MONDAY, SUPPLYING FAIR  
WEATHER TO START NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE  
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS  
EAST-CENTRAL NY WILL BRING A PIVOTING BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS  
NORTH AND WESTWARD, MAINLY AFFECTING SLK/MSS THRU 15Z THIS  
MORNING. WILL SEE SOME ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS REDEVELOP THIS AFTN,  
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. LOCALIZED MVFR  
CONDITIONS AT RUT/MPV/SLK WILL LIFT TO VFR BY 15Z. GENERALLY  
EXPECTING VFR CEILINGS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT HRS  
OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOWER STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP EAST OF  
THE GREENS LATER TONIGHT, WITH POSSIBLE MVFR STRATUS AT MPV/SLK  
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY S-SE AT LIGHT SPEEDS  
(<10KT), EXCEPT LOCALLY NE 5-10KT AT MSS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT  
CHANCE SHRA.  
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.  
SATURDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS  
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/CLAY  
SHORT TERM...RSD  
LONG TERM...RSD  
AVIATION...BANACOS  
 
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