474  
FXUS61 KBTV 240834  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
334 AM EST WED JAN 24 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS  
MORNING AND IS BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THIS  
SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA AND DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL  
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER  
OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A  
WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND AND THE CHANCES FOR  
RAIN WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 333 AM EST WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE  
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC  
SUPPORT IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE  
BEGINNING TO FALL QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THIS  
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE  
PROBABLY GOING TO BE RIGHT AROUND 700 AM WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION  
CONTINUING ALL DAY TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE ON THEIR  
DOWNWARD TREND. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST COULD SEE  
A LITTLE UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE  
A BIT LIMITED AND THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF  
ACCUMULATIONS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE  
EXPECTED FOR A BETTER PART OF THE DAY.  
 
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP AND  
WINDS TAPERING OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS  
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE  
AND BELOW ZERO. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY DRY  
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE SUNSHINE THAN TODAY...BUT HIGHS  
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 333 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE END OF THE WORK WEEK CONTINUES  
TO LOOK QUIET YET COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
CENTERED OVER THE REGION AND AN UPPER RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE  
GREAT LAKES. OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST  
KINGDOM EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES ARE  
EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS  
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPS WARM UP INTO  
THE TEENS NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AS THE  
HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 333 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE FOR THE FIRST  
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT  
SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF  
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE  
NORTHEAST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A GRADUAL  
WARMING OF TEMPS TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
30S TO MID 40S.  
 
FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME THE 00Z MODEL  
SUITE HAS ACTUALLY COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC  
PATTERN, AND SURPRISINGLY THE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS  
THE LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THAT THE GFS HAS SHOWN THE PAST COUPLE  
OF DAYS. I'M SKEPTICAL OF THE DRAMATIC SHIFT OF THE GUIDANCE SO FOR  
THIS FORECAST I'VE OFFERED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE  
00Z MODELS WHICH IN GENERAL SUPPORTS LESS QPF THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS,  
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH RESULTS IN LESS MIXED  
PRECIPITATION. STILL LOOKS LIKE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE  
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL DIRECT WARM, MOIST  
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN  
US WITH TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT HOVERING IN THE LOW/MID 30S BEFORE  
WARMING INTO UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S SUNDAY. PRECIP LOOKS TO BEGIN AS A  
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WITH THE SNOW  
LEVEL RISING TO AROUND 2500 FEET DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON  
SUNDAY, AND RETURNING TO THE VALLEY FLOOR BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY AS A  
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT IF THE COLDER  
SOLUTIONS PAN OUT, SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW, ALBEIT WET, MAY FALL  
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS 850MB TEMPS ONLY BRIEFLY TOUCH 0C.  
STAY TUNED.  
 
LOOKING FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK, AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH  
SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE THOUGH MAINLY ACROSS THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE  
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY, ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...AREA OF SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS A  
GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL RESULT IN SOME IFR  
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS  
BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE AFTER 10Z. CONDITIONS WILL ESSENTIALLY  
BECOME VFR WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE  
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ACROSS VERMONT IT WILL  
MAINLY BE VFR BUT THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE  
AREA THIS MORNING. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE  
RULE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE  
20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE FZRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE  
SHSN.  
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON  
NEAR TERM...EVENSON  
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF  
LONG TERM...LAHIFF  
AVIATION...EVENSON  
 
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