114
FXUS61 KBTV 091511
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1011 AM EST MON NOV 9 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS WEEK...WITH GENERALLY SUNNY AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY...PROVIDING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDY SKIES. BEHIND THE FRONT CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 1011 AM EST MONDAY...WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATE TO GOING
FORECAST TO ADJUST TEMPS FOR MOST ZONES. SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY
HIT CURRENT HIGHS IN FORECAST AND NEED TO BE ADJUST
UP...ESPECIALLY IN ST LAW VALLEY. WILL UP THE REST OF ZONES A FEW
DEGREES...MAINLY WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS SLOW TO
REBOUND THIS MORNING DUE TO BLOCKAGE OF MTNS NOT ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW INTO THAT AREA...DO EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR
FORECASTED HIGHS. REST OF FORECAST IN GD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SUNNY GORGEOUS DAY ON TAP.
WHILE MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE STARTING OUT COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY...TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY RISE TO AT OR ABOVE YESTERDAYS
MAX TEMPS UNDER CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND 850HPA TEMPS
RISING TO AROUND +12C. COULD BE LOOKING AT RECORD HIGH TEMPS IN
SOME PLACES FOR TODAY AS RECORDS AROUND THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WHICH WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO TODAYS HIGHS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 319 AM EST MONDAY...LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE
IDA...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
WEAK AND DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PROVIDING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDY
SKIES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS...AND SUNNY
SKIES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN
KEEPING THE REMNANTS OF IDA SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 319 AM EST MONDAY...BETTER CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS OVER
PAST COUPLE OF RUNS RESULTING IN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST.
MAIN ISSUE HAS BEEN THE EVENTUAL INTERACTION OF DIGGING NORTHERN
STREAM SHRTWV WITH SHRTWV MOVING EAST ACROSS GULF STATES...ALONG
WITH NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF IDA. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
TROUGH MERGER WILL TAKE PLACE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST - ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS - LEAVING SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE GRTLKS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO BE OUR
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE MID ATLC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE RESULT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY. THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND FIELD
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EACH NIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS
TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WHILE MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS SFC RIDGE
MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE
TAF SITES TODAY WITH JUST SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. CIGS LOWERING TO
AROUND 5000 FT TONIGHT AS WEAK CDFNT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25
KTS TODAY...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LWR VLYS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND SHIFT TO NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND KEEPS LOW PRESSURE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLC REGION.
CLIMATE
BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
FOR TODAY...WHICH HAVE A CHANCE TO BE BROKEN OR TIED.
BURLINGTON VT.....67 DEGREES (1945)
MONTPELIER VT.....63 DEGREES (1975)
ST JOHNSBURY VT...68 DEGREES (1996)
MASSENA NY........67 DEGREES (1950)
MT MANSFIELD VT...54 DEGREES (1996)
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JN/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
CLIMATE...
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