060  
FXUS61 KBTV 200342  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
1042 PM EST SUN NOV 19 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY  
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...ANY  
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE  
NORTHWEST. RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY  
DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AND SUNSHINE...DRY WEATHER...AND HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 RETURNS TO THE AREA.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 1038 PM EST SUNDAY...LOW-LEVEL CAA CONTINUES LATE THIS  
EVENING WITHIN MODERATELY STRONG WNWLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS NY AND  
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY ACROSS SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY, WHICH  
WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EWD ALONG THE INTL BORDER OVER THE NEXT  
SEVERAL HOURS. STILL SEEING SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW SHOWER  
ACTIVITY AND SCATTERED FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND  
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN  
MTNS. HOWEVER, ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS  
THE MTNS, GENERALLY A COATING TO 1". OTHERWISE, LOOKING AT  
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES AND CONTINUED  
MODERATELY STRONG WNWLY WINDS. MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS TOWARD  
DAYBREAK AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST OF OUR  
LONGITUDE. FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST MINOR  
ADJUSTMENTS FOR HOURLY TRENDS WITH THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS  
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE NOW NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA  
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH WEST  
TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID  
20S TO LOWER 30S IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IN THE MID 20S TO MID  
30S ACROSS VERMONT. THUS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM  
OF SNOW SHOWERS. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THE VERTICAL DEPTH  
OF MOISTURE HAS DECREASED MAKING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE ON  
THE LIGHT SIDE. WEBCAMS SHOW THIS TO BE THE CASE AS WELL. IN  
ADDITION...WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS HELPING TO FOCUS  
SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. OF NOTE IS THE THE  
INCREASING FROUDE NUMBERS ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREEN  
MOUNTAINS WHICH SUGGESTS ANY UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WILL BE  
CARRIED MORE DOWNSTREAM ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GREENS.  
HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE  
AN INCH OR LESS. SHOULD STILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER  
TONIGHT WITH LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE MID TEENS TO THE MID  
20S.  
 
ON MONDAY...WE REMAIN IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MORNING  
WITH THE FLOW GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH TO LIFT UP  
INTO OUR AREA...BUT MAY ONLY AFFECT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN  
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF VERMONT. BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID  
30S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK TO THE  
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE MONDAY  
NIGHT WOULD LIFT NORTH BUT TENDS TO DRY OUT SO ONLY HAVE SOME  
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH THE FLOW  
ALOFT BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE  
PLACE AND CAN SEE TEMPERATURES RISING OVERNIGHT. HAVE MADE THE  
LOW EARLIER IN THE NIGHT WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. THE  
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON TUESDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF  
SUNSHINE...DRY WEATHER...AND HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE 40S TO  
AROUND 50. UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWER AND THUS THE  
FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY BEFORE  
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...PRIMARILY A VERY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW  
PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD WITH VERY MINOR DISTURBANCES AND SLIGHT  
ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES BUT LARGELY BELOW NORMAL. THERE  
IS STILL AN OUTSIDE THREAT OF A COASTAL STORM WED-WED NGT BUT  
MOST CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE KEEPING THIS A MID-ATLANTIC AND  
THIS FAR ENOUGH AWAY WITH NO IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA BUT STILL  
WORTH MONITORING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 
WEDNESDAY: COLD FRONT EXITING REGION WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS  
THRU MID-LATE MORNING THEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL.  
TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING SLIGHTLY DURING  
THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S/40.  
 
THANKSGIVING: QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH IN CONTROL BUT THE EVENTUAL  
APPROACH OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  
CURRENTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY: MUCH OF THE ENERGY WITH NORTHERN STREAM  
SHORTWAVE IS IN CANADA BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLD/SCT SNOW  
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN  
THE 30S.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: WE START OFF DRY FRIDAY EVENING WITH SURFACE  
HIGH AND SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUT THAT QUICKLY GIVES WAY TO NEXT  
UPSTREAM SYSTEM. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE REFLECTION MOVING  
NORTH OF GREAT LAKES AND INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH SOME DECENT WARM-  
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT FOR LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD  
SATURDAY MORNING THEN MAIN ENERGY SHIFTS NE, HOWEVER TROF AXIS  
REMAINS ACROSS REGION WITH SEVERAL REPLENISHING SHORTWAVES MOVING  
THROUGH INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE IT WILL BE GENERALLY UNSTABLE, COLD  
WITH SNOW SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS CYCLONIC WEST  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS  
MAY DROP VISIBILITIES AT SLK DOWN TO IFR AS LIGHT SNOW SHOULD  
CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH ABOUT 05Z. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AS  
STEEP LAPSE RATES PROMOTE MIXING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15-23KTS AT  
ALL TAF SITES. BY DAYBREAK MONDAY ANTICIPATE ALL SITES IMPROVING  
TO VFR CEILINGS WHILE THE GUSTY WINDS REMAIN. LATE IN THE DAY  
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SLK/MSS MAY BECOME IMPACTED BY A  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND THAT WILL BE LIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH.  
WITH POTENTIAL FOR VARIED INTENSITY AND TIMING, THE FORECAST  
JUST MENTIONS LOWERED CEILINGS RATHER THAN SPECIFIC DETAIL ABOUT  
VISIBILITIES.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,  
CHANCE SHSN.  
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,  
CHANCE SHSN.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT  
CHANCE SHSN.  
THANKSGIVING DAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG  
WX.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT  
CHANCE SHSN.  
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 1125 AM EST SUNDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN  
EFFECT FOR TODAY. WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST AND ARE IN  
THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KNOTS. THIS  
WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 2 TO 5 FOOT RANGE  
WITH A MODERATE CHOP. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PROVE HAZARDOUS TO  
THOSE OPERATING SMALL CRAFT, ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN HALF OF  
THE BROAD LAKE AND IN VERMONT BAYS/INLETS WITH WESTERLY  
EXPOSURES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ABATE SLIGHTLY LATER THIS  
EVENING INTO MONDAY.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON  
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON  
SHORT TERM...EVENSON  
LONG TERM...SLW  
AVIATION...DEAL  
MARINE...EVENSON/JMG  
 
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