619
FXUS63 KARX 161111
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
611 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY TODAY WITH GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH. SCATTERED TO AREAS OF
SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
- DRIER, COOLER AND LESS WINDY END TO THE WEEKEND.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT: WINDY. SCATTERED TO AREAS OF SHOWERS.
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS EDGING INTO WESTERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING, SHIFTING OVER NORTHERN WI THIS EVENING. LOBES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL ROTAT.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... ISSUED
AT 631 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP 1000-700 MB LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO
MIX STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. THESE WINDS HAVE
BEEN PICKING UP DUST FROM RECENTLY PLOWED FARM FIELDS AND LOWERING
VISIBILITIES TO 2 MILES OR LESS AT TIMES.
AS DIURNAL MIXING OCCURS ON FRIDAY, THE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND GUST FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.E AROUND THE LOW WHILE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS STREAKING A WEAK RIPPLE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO ACROSS SOUTHERN WI BY THE AFTERNOON. ADD IN FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE SATURATION AND SCATTERED TO AREAS OF
SHOWERS WILL BE THE RESULT. THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS SHIFTING EAST SO
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH/IF ANY THUNDER THREAT.
CURRENTLY ACROSS SD, JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW CENTER, WINDS ARE
GUSTING IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S MPH. THAT LOW SHIFTS OVER
NORTHERN WI THIS EVENING, BUT IS PROGGED TO UNDERGO SOME WEAKENING
AS IT DOES. LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING, PROMOTING DEEP MIXING UPWARDS OF 9 KFT
AT TIMES. RAP/HRRR SUGGEST WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIX LAYER COULD
FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 50S/60 KTS, BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. GENERALLY, BOTH
BRING UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 KTS TO THE SFC VIA MOMENTUM TRANSFER,
TOPPING GUSTS OUT IN THE LOWER 40S MPH. FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT MOSTLY BELOW. HOWEVER, IF THE EC IS TO BE BELIEVED,
THE WIND PRONE AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE GUSTING
WELL INTO THE 50S MPH (ALMOST 10% OF ITS MEMBERS REACH 60 AT KRST).
EFIS FOR WIND GUSTS CONTINUE 0.8 TO 0.9 TODAY WITH SOT OF 1. THE EPS
HAS BEEN RUNNING "HOT" WHEN IT COMES TO WINDS AND DOESN'T HAVE A LOT
OF SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER SHORT/MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE GEFS, FOR
INSTANCE, HAS ONLY 20% OF ITS MEMBERS REACHING 45 MPH AT KRST.
LATEST HREF SUGGESTS APPROX 40-80% FOR 40 MPH GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT ONLY SPOTTY 10-20% TO EXCEED 45.
TOSSING A LOT OF NUMBERS, PERCENTAGES OUT THERE...PRESENTING A MUDDY
PICTURE. SENSIBLE OUTCOMES SAY IT'S GOING TO BE WINDY EITHER WAY.
FOR NOW, PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, WILL HOLD
OF AN ADVISORY. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON EVOLUTION/SFC
OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE DAY, ADJUSTING FORECAST AND POTENTIAL
HEADLINE NEEDS IF WARRANTED.
- WEEKEND: COOLER, LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY. SUNDAY DRY, SUNNY
WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE ACROSS MICH SAT MORNING, EXITING
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY SAT EVENING. CYCLONIC FLOW,
LINGERING BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY, POTENTIALLY A WESTWARD HANGING
SFC TROUGH ALONG WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE
A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS SAT - MOSTLY ACROSS WI. THESE SHOULD ALL
EXIT EAST BY THE EVENING. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE A LOFT MOVES IN FOR
SUNDAY, BRINGING THE WEEKEND TO A DRY, LESS WINDY, MOSTLY SUNNY AND
SEASONABLE CLOSE.
- START OF NEW WORK WEEK: PERIODS OF SHOWERS
GEFS AND EPS HAVE BEEN FAVORING BRINGING A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM OFF
THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND, MOVING IT OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY TUE MORNING. BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PINWHEEL
AROUND THE TROUGH. FAIRLY MESSY SETUP AS THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHORTWAVES AT PLAY THAT COULD MERGE/STAY SOLO/OR COME TOGETHER WELL
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE THESE DETAILS AREN'T CLEAR, A BRANCH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO FUNNEL MOISTURE NORTH THEN WESTWARD,
FEEDING THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING. SENSIBLE OUTCOMES, SANS CLARITY IN
SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS, IS FOR AREAS OF RAIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS MON MORNING, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO WED. THE EPS AND GEFS ARE A BIT QUICKER
WITH BRINGING IN THE RAIN CHANCES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND
THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHIFT SOUTHWARD IN THE GEFS. FOR NOW, WILL LET
THE MODEL BLEND DETAIL THE RAIN CHANCES - WHICH ARE STILL LOOKING
LIKELY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT TRACK
OF THE TROUGH WOULD HOLD MUCH/IF NOT ALL OF THE INSTABILITY POOL
WELL SOUTH, LIMITING THE THREAT FOR THUNDER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WINDS THROUGH TODAY.
HIGHER WINDS HAVEN'T PROGRESSED AS FAR EAST AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED AND AS A RESULT HAVE HAD TO AMEND KRST TAF SITE TO
ACCOUNT. HOWEVER, HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF INCREASED WINDS AT
BOTH TAF SITES AT 16.12Z TAF ISSUANCE AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHEST WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AFFECTING SMALLER AIRPORTS LOCALLY IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AS WELL AS KRST TAF SITE. INITIAL
PRECIPITATION AND LOW STORM CHANCES SHIFT NORTHEAST IN A NARROW
BAND FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN, AFFECTING
SMALLER AIRPORTS SOUTHEAST OF KLSE TAF SITE. SUBSEQUENT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FILLS IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOW BUT NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. MVFR CEILINGS FILL IN TOWARDS THE END OF
THE 16.12Z TAF PERIOD MOST LIGHTLY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH
WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE LIES NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90, I.E., JUST ON THE EDGE OF KLSE AND KRST TAF
SITES.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIECK
AVIATION...JAR
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