638  
FNUS73 KUNR 161441  
FWSUNR  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR JFSP RESEARCH RX...US FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD  
841 AM MDT WED MAY 16 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON MAY 16.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
WARM TEMEPRATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH TODAY AND  
TOMORROW. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. SMOKE DISPERSAL TODAY WILL BE WARM, THEN INCREASE TO  
EXCELLENT THURSDAY AS STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS DEVELOP.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83.  
MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................2.  
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......9600 TO 10100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.  
CWR.................10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................2.  
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 TO 600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.  
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH.  
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
CWR.................25 PERCENT.  
LAL.................3.  
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......9100 TO 9600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 30 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT.  
 

 
FORECASTER...13  
REQUESTED BY...BRIAN DAUNT  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1810031.1/UNR  
.EMAIL BDAUNT@FS.FED.US  
 
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