955
FXUS65 KBYZ 242052
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
252 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2008
SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WAS
HANGING AROUND THE SLOPE OF THE BIG HORNS. DEWPOINTS STILL
HANGING IN THE LOWER 50S OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOW LEVEL
EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. ENERGY SWINGING OUT OF BROAD TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND IGNITING CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
WYOMING. CAPES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1200 J/KG OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA THIS HOUR. HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WITH A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THERE TOO. WATCH ALREADY
ISSUED FOR THE FAR TWO SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. OTHER STORMS POSSIBLE
IN ONE OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BANDS ON WATER VAPOR ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH ARE LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN FORCING SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP POPS
ISOLATED FOR NOW.
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO WARM. HIGHS IN THE 90S WILL BE COMMON PLACE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO
THE SOUTH...BUT SOME TRIES TO SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS THE RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPS IN EASTERN MONTANA BOTH DAYS.
WILL KEEP POPS LOW AS MOST OF THE ENERGY GETS DEFLECTED NORTH.
HUMPHREY
LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE IN GENERAL RIDGE OVER
REGION FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT DO OFFER SOME DIFFERENCES
FOR DETAILS OF SHORT WAVES. HOWEVER...THESE DIFFERENCES ARE TOO
VAGUE AND OUT TO FAR TO HAVE MUCH BEARING ON THE OVERALL TREND OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED BACK TO A MORE
FLAT RIDGE PATTERN OVERALL...PUTTING ON HOLD ANY DRASTIC WARM UP
SCENARIO FOR NOW.
GENERAL OUTLOOK WILL BE FOR TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SOMEWHAT ABOVE
NORMAL. POPS WILL BE LIMITED UNDER A FLAT RIDGE...BUT WITH A
CHANCE OF SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS
AND AN OCCASIONAL WAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LOW
POPS INHERITED FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS.
AT THIS TIME WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR POSSIBLE SHORT WAVES SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND PERHAPS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WILL PROVIDE
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
SLIGHT COOL DOWNS THE FOLLOWING DAYS. BT
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY FROM BILLINGS EAST. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/089 061/096 065/094 064/090 062/090 062/089 062/090
22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 21/U
LVM 049/087 052/095 055/093 054/089 052/088 053/088 052/088
22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
HDN 059/090 061/098 065/096 060/092 060/095 061/091 062/093
22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 21/U
MLS 059/088 062/097 067/096 064/092 063/091 064/090 064/092
22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 21/U
4BQ 060/087 061/098 065/095 061/090 061/092 062/090 063/091
42/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 21/U
BHK 055/085 058/092 060/090 059/089 057/090 062/088 062/089
22/T 22/T 22/T 33/T 22/T 22/T 21/U
SHR 056/087 057/096 059/093 055/088 056/089 057/089 057/088
22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 21/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 746 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 36-37.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page