474
FXUS65 KBYZ 101931
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
131 PM MDT FRI MAY 10 2024
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC NW FLOW AS OUR REGION IS NOW
SOLIDLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. THE UPPER LOW
WHICH HAD IMPACTED US THROUGHOUT THE WEEK IS NOW CUT OFF OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. TEMPS TODAY ARE RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY AND HAVE
REACHED THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BY NOON REGIONWIDE...AND SOME
LOCATIONS WILL TOUCH 70F LATER TODAY. AFTER A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT
(AND NO FOG) WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY,
W/ A MIXED NW WIND (GUSTS TO 20 MPH) HELPING THE DOWNSLOPE
WARMING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST AK
AND ANOTHER JUST WEST OF THERE. THESE WAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE NW
FLOW CAUSING GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE
FIRST WAVE WILL REACH ND TOMORROW. MOST OF OUR REGION WILL BE DRY
ON SATURDAY, BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DIURNAL INSTABILITY
(LOW/SKINNY CAPE) AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING LIGHT SHOWERS, OR
SPRINKLES, OR MAYBE JUST VIRGA. HOWEVER IT PANS OUT WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT, THE 2ND OF THE TWO UPSTREAM WAVES WILL PROVIDE WEAK
SUPPORT FOR A SLIGHT (20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTH.
SKIES TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR (MAYBE SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
AT TIMES) SO NORTHERN LIGHTS VIEWING LOOKS FAVORABLE.
JKL
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A FLATTENING RIDGE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE A TROUGH MOVES IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE WARM WEEKEND
TEMPS, THE SNOWFALL FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO MELT OUT
FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 8000 FT. FLOODING IS NOT PRESENTLY A
CONCERN, BUT THERE MAY BE RISES ALONG LOCAL STREAMS EMERGING FROM
THE FOOTHILLS.
CURRENTLY, FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, INCREASING TO A 50-70% CHANCE (HIGHEST
OVER THE WEST) FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY, AS THE MODELS
ARE PRETTY EVENLY SPLIT ON WHETHER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OR IF
RIDGING WILL MOVE BACK IN. HOWEVER, EVEN THE MODELS THAT LEAN
TOWARDS TROUGHING DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION, WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A 40% CHANCE OF 0.1" OF TOTAL PRECIP FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S.THEN, TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, HIGHS COULD STAY IN THE 60S
IF TROUGHING PREVAILS OR WARM BACK INTO THE 70S IF A RIDGE MOVES
IN. CURRENTLY, THE NBM IS SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ARCHER
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. NW WINDS WILL GUST 15-25KTS NEAR KBHK & K97M UNTIL 01Z
THIS EVENING. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/076 048/075 049/077 049/067 045/067 046/072 048/071
01/B 13/T 15/T 47/T 45/T 33/T 33/W
LVM 038/076 045/075 047/075 046/064 041/066 043/071 045/072
00/B 02/W 15/T 37/T 35/T 23/W 33/T
HDN 040/077 045/075 045/078 048/068 043/067 043/072 045/072
00/B 23/T 14/T 67/T 45/W 33/W 32/W
MLS 043/077 048/072 047/077 050/068 043/066 044/071 046/069
00/B 12/W 12/W 54/T 23/W 22/W 22/W
4BQ 041/075 046/074 044/077 049/068 045/064 043/069 044/071
00/U 03/T 02/W 54/T 33/W 22/W 22/W
BHK 042/077 045/072 044/077 046/068 041/063 040/068 043/068
00/B 12/W 12/W 54/T 22/W 22/W 22/W
SHR 037/075 043/073 044/076 045/065 042/063 039/069 043/070
00/U 15/T 14/T 57/T 55/T 33/W 32/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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