614
FXUS65 KBYZ 250350
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
850 PM MST TUE NOV 24 2009
SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING. ASSOCIATED JET FORCING AND MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
RESULTING IN SOME BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW PELLET SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES AND DOWN INTO THE BIG HORNS. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING SOUTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS...BUT SEEMS
GENERALLY LIGHT. LIMITING FACTOR SEEMS TO BE A LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK...BUT WILL ADJUST POPS BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. FORCING DECREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. BT
LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE CWA. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN
IMPACTING THE CWA ON FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
TROUGH. THE ECMWF SPLITS THE FLOW WITH ENERGY DIVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER STATES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. MOISTURE APPEARS
SUFFICIENT BUT FORCING APPEARS RATHER MODEST WITH THIS TROUGH.
BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA FOR SATURDAY.
LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER EASTERN ZONES THROUGH
SUNDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON
SUNDAY BUT IS QUICKLY FLATTENED BY A BROAD TROUGH EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK. LIMITED POPS AND KEPT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SCHUKNECHT
AVIATION
EXPECTED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. PERIODS OF MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITATION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS IN THE KLVM VICINITY
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. GILSTAD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029/051 035/056 034/056 030/040 025/038 026/042 029/042
40/B 00/N 00/B 22/W 20/B 00/B 12/W
LVM 030/047 035/054 032/050 024/035 022/037 020/039 024/038
22/W 00/N 02/W 32/J 21/B 11/B 12/J
HDN 027/052 026/058 028/058 027/045 021/042 021/044 024/046
70/B 00/U 00/B 22/W 21/B 10/B 12/W
MLS 023/046 026/056 028/057 029/045 020/039 021/043 024/045
20/B 00/U 00/U 22/W 21/B 11/B 12/W
4BQ 024/046 027/058 028/057 028/043 020/040 020/043 024/044
40/B 00/U 00/U 22/W 21/B 10/B 12/W
BHK 021/042 023/055 027/054 026/042 020/038 020/038 022/042
20/B 00/U 00/U 22/W 21/B 00/B 12/J
SHR 025/049 026/057 025/058 026/041 018/040 018/043 019/043
62/J 00/U 00/B 23/J 21/B 10/B 12/J
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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