976
FXUS65 KCYS 162138
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
338 PM MDT WED MAY 16 2012
SHORT TERM
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. BASED OFF CURRENT RADAR RETURNS AND VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE IS REACHING THE
GROUND. A FEW DRY LIGHTING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS...INDICATIVE OF
THE DRY LOW LEVELS AND INVERTED-V SOUNDING TO NEAR 500 MB.
LARAMIE RECORDED A 38 KT WIND GUST WITH AN OUTFLOW FROM A
COLLAPSING THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
SUBSIDE AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIE OFF THIS EVENING. COULD SEE A
REMOTE SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER EVEN GOING INTO LATE TONIGHT BUT
COVERAGE DOES NOT SUPPORT KEEPING MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS
COLORADO TONIGHT. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MAY BE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME RESOLVING THE LOW GIVEN A LOT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...KEEPING
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON THE SUBSIDENCE
SIDE OF THE LOW. CHANCES WILL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL
THURSDAY WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER THUNDER STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OR FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT COOLING
ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION. AMOUNTS WILL
MAINLY BE LIGHT SIDE BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IN SOME PLACES.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS MAIN UPPER TROF SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION. CLEARING OUT SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OVER THE PLAINS LEAVING
A DRY NW FLOW IN ITS WAKE WITH DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR SUNDAY.
WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT UPPER TROF TO AFFECT THE
AREA SHOULD REACH THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKY MTNS BY LATE WEDS AND
SHOULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MTNS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AVIATION...18Z TAFS ISSUANCE
VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER MTNS
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY OVER THE PLAINS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST TERMINALS. WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SWITCHING SFC WINDS TO WESTERLY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF. A FEW DRY LIGHTING
STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY DRY LOW LEVELS AND SURFACE
HUMIDITIES 10 TO 20 PERCENT. HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER THIS EVENING
AS TEMPERATURES DECREASE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 WILL
OCCUR IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING EACH DAY
WITH HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING INTO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE.
SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THURSDAY AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ106-WYZ116-WYZ117.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...LIEBL
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RE
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