910  
FXUS65 KCYS 290947  
AFDCYS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY  
347 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016  
 
PRETTY NICE DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY. CURRENT IR IMAGERY SHOWING  
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE PRETTY MUCH CLOUD FREE.  
WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A STATIONARY BOUNDARY BISECTING THE  
CWFA FROM CHADRON TO RAWLINS THIS MORNING. MAINLY A CONVERGENCE  
BOUNDARY AS DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY UNIFORM ON BOTH  
SIDES OF THE BOUNDARY.  
 
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA NOT REALLY SHOWING ANY  
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY. ONLY NEAR THE BOUNDARY OUT IN THE  
NORTHERN PANHANDLE DOES THE NAM SHOW ANY HIGH CAPE. THIS AFTERNOON  
TOWARDS 00Z...NAM SHOWS 1500-1800 J/KG. DO BELIEVE MOST AREAS  
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY.  
 
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE  
NORTHWEST. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE  
INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 21Z MONDAY AND THROUGH OUR  
SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY EVENING. WE MAY BE TOO FAR WEST FOR  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GFS SHOWING MUCH OF  
THE HIGHER INSTABILITY OVER IN NORTH PLATTE'S AREA. SPC HAS A  
SLIGHT RISK AREA IDENTIFIED JUST EAST OF OUR NEBRASKA PANHANDLE  
COUNTIES.  
 
ANOTHER ISSUE WITH THE FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD PUSH BEHIND  
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 850MB WINDS ACROSS  
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE COUNTIES INCREASE UP  
TO 40-45KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. COULD BE LOOKING AT ADVISORY LEVEL  
WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO  
FREEZING. TUESDAY SHOULD BE OUR COLDEST DAY AS THIS HAPPENS WITH  
LOW TO MID 60S IN THE PANHANDLE/MID TO UPPER 50S WEST FOR HIGHS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016  
 
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A WARM AND DRY WEATHER  
PATTERN AS MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT UPPER-  
LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS  
EXPECTED TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION FROM WED  
ONWARD, BUT OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD  
EXIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. TRENDED  
WARMER LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST H7 TEMPS  
OF +10 TO +12 DEG C OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY, QUITE POSSIBLY  
EVEN APPROACHING +14 DEG C OVER PARTS OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH A  
DEVELOPING LARGE SCALE OMEGA BLOCK. HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS COULD VERY  
WELL INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1007 PM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016  
 
VFR PREVAILS. LOCALIZED IFR AND MVFR AT ALLIANCE, CHADRON AND  
SCOTTSBLUFF FROM 08Z TO 14Z IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST  
WYOMING IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE EVENING.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016  
 
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO REMAIN LOW INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT  
WEEK WITH NON-CRITICAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE WILL BE  
WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WETTING RAINS FROM SOME OF  
THESE. WARMER AND DRIER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 146 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016  
 
THE NORTH PLATTE AND LARAMIE RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH,  
BUT SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
DAYS WITH RELATIVELY STEADY RESERVOIR RELEASES AND REDUCED  
SNOWMELT FROM COOL MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES. WARMER TEMPERATURES  
TOWARD MID WEEK WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SNOW MELT AGAIN, SO RIVERS  
WILL BE ON THE RISE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WY...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...GCC  
LONG TERM...CLH  
AVIATION...RUBIN  
FIRE WEATHER...GCC  
HYDROLOGY...GCC  
 
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