279  
FXUS65 KCYS 102329  
AFDCYS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY  
429 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016  
 
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UPPER-LEVEL  
RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE. MILD/DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST GIVEN  
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND H7 TEMPS BETWEEN -2 AND +2 DEG C OVER THE  
CWA ON THURSDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY  
WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTN  
HOURS WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT MAY BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY OVER  
THE WIND CORRIDORS WITH 40 KNOT H7-H8 FLOW AND THE 700 MILLIBAR CAG-  
CPR GRADIENT REMAINING ABOVE 40 METERS. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE  
DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY SHOULD FORCE  
A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD  
SUPPORT VEERING SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST/UPSLOPE BY MID AFTN  
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASING DRAMATICALLY. MAINTAINED THE  
IDEA OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE ANTICIPATION  
OF LOW STRATUS. MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POPS  
ATTM. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION IN THE  
0C TO -10C LAYER BENEATH DRY MID LEVELS ON FRI NIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND  
ADDED PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG A SIDNEY-ALLIANCE LINE. NO  
OTHER FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016  
 
SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH  
EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING THOUGH WITH MINIMAL SENSIBLE  
EFFECTS ON OUR FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED RELATIVELY MILD PER  
THICKNESSES TRENDS.  
 
SUNDAY...COOLER DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND  
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY MILD FOR MID  
FEBRUARY. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE  
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.  
 
MONDAY...ANOTHER WARMING TREND BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW  
ALOFT...RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. WILL SEE A DECREASE IN  
OROGRAPHIC SNOW COVERAGE ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AS  
MOISTURE ALOFT DECREASES. DRY ELSEWHERE.  
 
TUESDAY...WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS ALOFT  
RISE. LIKELY A WINDY DAY PER PROGGED LOW AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS AND  
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST WINDS. CONTINUED DRY WITH LIMITED LOW  
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  
 
WEDNESDAY...MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES AS THE RIDGE ALOFT SLOWLY  
MOVES OVER OUR COUNTIES...AND THE AIRMASS MODERATES. WILL SEE  
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S EAST OF INTERSTATE 25...WITH MAINLY  
40S WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 IN THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016  
 
VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL.  
 
WYOMING TAFS...GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AT CHEYENNE THROUGH 02Z.  
AFTER 15Z...GUSTS OF 25 TO 28 KNOTS AT ALL SITES.  
 
NEBRASKA TAFS...GUSTS TO 26 KNOTS AT CHADRON THROUGH 02Z.  
AFTER 15Z...GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT ALL SITES.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 420 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016  
 
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE  
RESIDUAL SNOWPACK AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FORECAST THROUGH THE  
WEEK. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND  
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN  
ABOVE 30 PERCENT.  
 

 
   
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WY...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...CLH  
LONG TERM...RUBIN  
AVIATION...RUBIN  
FIRE WEATHER...RJM  
 
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