767  
FXUS65 KCYS 251717  
AFDCYS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY  
1016 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
 
ISSUED AT 1257 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015  
 
A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE QUICKLY ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WAS RESPONSIBLE  
FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY  
AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE LAST EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS  
IN RADAR/SAT IMAGERY INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED  
IN COVERAGE AS OF 08Z OWING TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF  
THE DEPARTING WAVE. WE ARE STILL SEEING A FEW WEAK ECHOS FROM KCYS  
ALONG THE WY/NE STATE LINE NEAR SCOTTSBLUFF...BUT POTENTIAL FOR ANY  
MEASURABLE PCPN IS UNLIKELY WITH DRYING LOW LEVELS AND LARGER SCALE  
SINKING MOTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA. LLVL GRADIENTS STAY ELEVATED  
TODAY WITH AROUND 50 METERS BETWEEN CAG-CPR AT H85. FAST NORTHWEST  
FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS WITH A 130 KT H25 JET OVER EASTERN MT/WY...SO  
THE WIND PRONE AREAS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE QUITE WINDY. A FEW WYDOT  
SENSORS NEAR ARLINGTON HAVE RECORDED WINDS NEAR 50 MPH IN THE LAST  
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING CRITERIA GUSTS AS THE  
MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT WITH TIME. A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL  
SHORT TERM PERIOD ASIDE FROM BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. GFS/NAM/ECM  
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMING  
ESTABLISHED ON MON/TUE. H7 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-7 DEG C  
AT 00Z TUE. NO REAL CONCERNS ABOUT CIRRUS EITHER WITH FAIRLY DRY RH  
PROGS BETWEEN H2-H3 PER THE GFS. ADIABATIC WARMING IS LIKELY WITH  
GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND WESTERLY LLVL DOWNSLOPE...SO TEND TO FAVOR THE  
WARMER MOS WITH HIGHS AROUND 65 F OVER THE PLAINS. COULD SEE A FEW  
RECORDS THREATENED EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE ON  
THE INCREASE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST ON TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG  
SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015  
 
UPPER RIDGE THAT GAVE US THE WARM TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST TO  
MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
MOVES THROUGH WYOMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A RETURN OF COLDER  
TEMPERATURES AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...GFS 700MB  
TEMPERATURES FALL TO -6C...DOWN FROM +4C TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
GOING TO BE WINDY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. GFS 700MB WINDS 45 TO 50KTS...SO LIKELY TO SEE WIND  
HEADLINES FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS. ABOUT .3 TO .4 INCHES QPF FOR  
THE MOUNTAINS OUT WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO COULD SEE ADVISORY  
LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.  
 
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY THAT WILL BRING SOME MORE LIGHT  
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD STAY  
DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 1016 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015  
 
VFR EXPECTED OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY. AREAS OF MID LEVEL  
CIGS WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE  
BREAKING UP BY THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 1257 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015  
 
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY BREEZY  
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL PARAMETERS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.  
 

 
   
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WY...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...CLH  
LONG TERM...GCC  
AVIATION...RE  
FIRE WEATHER...CLH  
 
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