336  
FXUS65 KCYS 301123  
AFDCYS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY  
523 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
 
ISSUED AT 121 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016  
 
TODAY...WELL PRONOUNCED RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY  
TODAY WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL  
MOISTURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BASED ON  
THICKNESSES AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES.  
 
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CLEAR AND COOL OVERNIGHT ASIDE FROM  
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. DESPITE LOW LEVEL  
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE, MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DUE TO  
LIMITED LIFT AND LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. A  
LITTLE BIT COOLER WEDNESDAY PER THICKNESS AND 700 MB TEMPERATURE  
TRENDS.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LOOK  
TO FORM ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA PER BOUNDARY LAYER PROGS. WITH THE  
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST, EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND  
MID LEVEL MOISTURE, ADDING TO ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY A BIT WARMER PER  
THICKNESS AND 700 MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016  
 
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM.  
RIDGE AXIS WELL OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING  
STRONGER THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. 700MB WINDS UP TO  
30-35KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. 850MB WINDS IN THE PANHANDLE  
45-50KTS. COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME WIND HEADLINES OUT THERE IN THE  
PANHANDLE AS ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY.  
 
THIS IS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS MONTANA INTO  
SATURDAY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH  
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES COULD BE CRITICAL  
ACROSS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA AND CARBON COUNTIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,  
SO FIRE HEADLINES ALSO A POSSIBILITY. IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO  
SHOW STRONG WINDS TOMORROW, WILL BE NEEDING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.  
 
GOOD UPSLOPE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY WITH A 90KT 250MB JET  
MOVING INTO THE AREA. COULD BE A PRETTY DECENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
EVENT SOMEWHERE IN THE PLAINS SUNDAY. GFS SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS  
FURTHER WEST INTO OUR CWFA WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWING CONVECTION OUT  
OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 12Z TAFS. MAY START TO SEE A  
CHANGE THOUGH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO  
WEDNESDAY. LATEST SREF GUIDANCE SHOWING WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR FROM  
THIS UPSLOPE MOISTURE WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID ADD IFR/LIFR  
CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z FOR KAIA, KSNY AND KBFF AS THEY ARE THE MOST  
LIKELY AREAS RIGHT NOW. MAY NEED TO ADD KCYS AS WE CLOSER TO THE  
EVENT.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 121 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016  
 
MINIMAL CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS BASED ON  
PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS. CONCERNS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS  
WEEK WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING INCREASING WINDS  
AND LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES.  
 

 
   
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WY...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RUBIN  
LONG TERM...GCC  
AVIATION...GCC  
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN  
 
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