591
FXUS65 KCYS 060148
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
749 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2008
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THIS EVENING OVER THE CWA. THE ACTIVITY SEEMED TO BE AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO.
LATEST MODELS MOVE THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO MAINLY
THE PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAVE
KEPT LOWER PPS OVER THAT AREA LATER TONIGHT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE HIGH BASED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING WAS LOCATED ALONG A BRIDGEPORT...KBFF...
KEAN TO KCPR LINE AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THE REST OF TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL
AID IN THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE TRIED TO ADDRESS THESE FORECAST ISSUES IN A
RECENT FORECAST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
/ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2008/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BUT 70S IN NORTHERN WYOMING. A COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. FRONT WILL BE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY MORNING
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. TIME HEIGHTS SHOWING SOME
AREAS IN THE PANHANDLE COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUD CEILINGS SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY. THOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOMEWHAT DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK SECONDARY BOUNDARY WILL BACK INTO THE CWA ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL REINFORCE UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...AND THUS PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT WINDWARD FOOTHILLS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
FALLING SURFACE PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...WILL ALLOW FLOW TO SWING
AROUND TO THE SSE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. RETURN FLOW
WILL ADVECT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...SO AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION STILL A POSSIBILITY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE SE WY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...RECIRCULATED MOISTURE
WILL SWING BACK AROUND THE DEVELOPING GULF COAST HIGH FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LATE FRIDAY AND DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. EVEN THEN...WOULD ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION AT
BEST. DECREASED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES FURTHER ON TUESDAY
BEHIND SAID SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES
REBOUND TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...AND BACK INTO A SURPLUS FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 6/09Z. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CHANCE
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 6/12Z KBFF AND KSNY.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
WEILAND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page