204  
FXUS65 KRIW 181922  
AFDRIW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY  
122 PM MDT MON JUN 18 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT MON JUN 18 2018  
 
A COLD LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN IDAHO ACROSS  
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE THREAT  
OF FLOODING. WEDNESDAY WARMER HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE  
WEST FROM THE GREAT BASIN WITH DRYING AND WARMING. SOME CONVECTION  
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
REMAINING WITH MUCH LESS COVERAGE. THE WARMING AND DRYING WILL  
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT MON JUN 18 2018  
 
THERE ARE THINGS WE KNOW AND THINGS WE DON'T KNOW IN THE LONG RANGE.  
WE DO KNOW THAT THE GREAT SPINNING WHEEL KNOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW  
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES INTO THE AREA THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE MODELS DO HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN  
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVES. AT THIS POINT, THE BEST  
GUESS FOR THE FIRST ON WOULD BE ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONE FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKS A LITTLE  
MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW, WE KEPT THINGS CLOSE TO CONTINUITY AND POPS  
FAIRLY GENERIC UNTIL MORE DETAILS CAN BE HASHED OUT A FUTURE TIME.  
THE MODELS STILL AGREE THAT A MORE SETTLED PATTERN SHOULD ARRIVE FOR  
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CONTINUED  
CLOUD COVER AND LOW THICKNESSES, TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW  
NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FOR THE MOST PART.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT MON JUN 18 2018  
 
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SURGE NORTHWARD WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY,  
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BIGGEST  
CONCENTRATION OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS  
WILL BE FOUND WEST OF A KLND TO KWRL LINE THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH  
ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A CHANCE. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN  
OBSCURATIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AROUND SUNSET, ALTHOUGH  
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN SPOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT FURTHER  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THEY  
ARE EXPECTED TO MORE SCATTERED AND NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS ON MONDAY.  
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE ON TUESDAY AND BE VFR  
FOR THE MOST PART OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  
 
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR  
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT MON JUN 18 2018  
 
A COLD LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN IDAHO ACROSS  
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE THREAT  
OF FLOODING.  
 

 
   
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ001>003-012-013.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BAKER  
LONG TERM...HATTINGS  
AVIATION...HATTINGS  
FIRE WEATHER...BAKER  
 
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