649
ACUS01 KWNS 122000
SWODY1
SPC AC 121958
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
VALID 122000Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO ACROSS FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND
GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL.
..20Z UPDATE
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED BEHIND A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. A SHORT-TERM SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS, WHERE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE, THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN
TRIMMED FROM EASTERN MT, WITH NO CHANGES TO THE MARGINAL RISK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
..BROYLES.. 03/12/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1044 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026/
..CAROLINAS AND NORTH FLORIDA
A BROKEN LINE OF LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS
IN TANDEM WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE SOME
THREAT FOR OCCASIONAL SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS LINE AS
FILTERED DAYTIME HEATING FOSTERS MODEST STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION. EVEN SO, POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY MORE THAN MODEST
INSTABILITY OVERALL. WHILE LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE GENERALLY VEERED TO
SOUTHWESTERLY PER RECENT VWPS FROM LTX/MHX, THERE IS STILL
SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED
CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LINE, AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.
THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND
GUIDANCE TRENDS TO REFLECT THE MAINLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE
LINE THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A SMALL MARGINAL RISK AREA HAS ALSO BEEN MAINTAINED FOR
PARTS OF NORTH FL WHERE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD
EXIST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS (AROUND 100-120 KT AT 500 MB) WILL
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON IN
TANDEM WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF A FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, SUCH THAT SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WITH SOME THREAT OF
LIGHTNING. THIS CONVECTION COULD AUGMENT THE ALREADY STRONG
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW, RESULTING IN STRONG SURFACE
WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS (65+ KT) COULD OCCUR
WITH ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO REMAINS LOW.
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