617
ACUS01 KWNS 061953
SWODY1
SPC AC 061952
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT SAT JUN 06 2026
VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND SWATHS (SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING
75 MPH) AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS (INCLUDING GUSTS EXCEEDING
75 MPH) ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..20Z UPDATE
THE PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE OUTLOOK WERE TO UPGRADE TO ENHANCED RISK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WIND SWATHS.
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC, A COLD-POOL-DRIVEN BOW ECHO MCS CONTINUES
TO RAPIDLY TRACK EASTWARD WITH A HISTORY OF BOTH WIND DAMAGE AND
MEASURED SEVERE GUSTS WELL EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS. TO THE NORTH OF THIS
BOW ECHO, MORE MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION HAS OSCILLATED IN INTENSITY,
ALSO WITH A HISTORY OF OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS. THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS INCREASING BUOYANCY AND ERODING MLCINH AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING STORMS, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 90 F, YIELDING OVER 1000 J/KG MLCAPE. THE STRONGLY HEATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENCOURAGE EFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TO SUPPORT DAMAGING TO SEVERE GUSTS.
FURTHERMORE, APPRECIABLE WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE 500 MB IS ENCOURAGING
35+ KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ORIENTED NORMAL TO THE BOW ECHO AND
SURROUNDING STORMS. THIS SHEAR MAY AID IN CONTINUED OR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORM MODES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND SWATHS, PERHAPS WITH A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 75 MPH.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
DEPICT MULTICELLULAR MODES OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ATOP A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, WHERE 90+ F SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
2500+ J/KG MLCAPE ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
40+ KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING. AS SUCH,
A DAMAGING WIND SWATH MAY OCCUR, WITH A FEW 75+ MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
..SQUITIERI.. 06/06/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1129 AM CDT SAT JUN 06 2026/
..OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE EVENING
A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN QC THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, IN ADVANCE OF A
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COASTS BY EARLY SUNDAY. A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS
ONGOING AS OF MIDDAY IN OH TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT, AND IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM AND MLCAPE
INCREASES INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY, ALONG
WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
MIDLEVEL FLOW, WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER AND WIND DAMAGE FROM EASTERN OH ACROSS PA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON (POTENTIALLY REACHING PHILADELPHIA-NEW YORK CITY BY THIS
EVENING). OTHERWISE, ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO
NY, WHERE A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, ISOLATED LARGE HAIL, AND A TORNADO OR
TWO.
..NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD FROM WA/OR TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, WITH DOWNSTREAM LEE CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO
REACH ~90 F TO WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST WIND PROFILES SUPPORT BOTH
MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS, AND STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL FAVOR BOTH SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS (UP TO 75
MPH) AND LARGE HAIL (UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER) WITH A MIX OF
HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS.
..TX/OK THIS AFTERNOON
POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING FROM CENTRAL/NORTHWEST TX INTO SOUTHERN
OK, NEAR AND SOUTH OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND MCV, WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
THIS AFTERNOON.
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