978  
ACUS01 KWNS 170033  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 170032  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0632 PM CST WED JAN 16 2019  
 
VALID 170100Z - 171200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF  
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND  
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN ABOUT 6 TO 11 PM PST ACROSS A PORTION  
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.  
   
.NORTHERN CA
 
 
CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A LARGE  
SWATH OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO  
TONIGHT, WITH ARRIVAL OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL COOLING AFTER  
03Z BEING NECESSARY FOR STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT  
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK BUOYANCY SHOULD PREDOMINATELY BE ROOTED  
ABOVE THE SURFACE (CENTERED AROUND 850 MB) GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY AND  
NEAR-NEUTRAL 0-1 KM LAPSE RATES. NEVERTHELESS, VERY STRONG  
LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD SUPPORT ORGANIZATION OF ONE OR TWO  
STRONGLY FORCED BANDS OF CONVECTION. GIVEN THE INTENSE AMBIENT  
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES (50-60 KT AT 1 KM AGL), MODEST MIXING OF  
THIS FLOW FROM WEAK CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD  
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.  
 
..SMITH.. 01/17/2019  
 

 
 
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