210
ACUS01 KWNS 182006
SWODY1
SPC AC 182005
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
VALID 182000Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY VICINITY...AND PARTS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY VICINITY.
..20Z UPDATE
BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS 15% WIND PROBABILITIES WERE REMOVED
FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY VICINITY. WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH WEAK,
SHALLOW CONVECTION (WITH LITTLE LIGHTNING) HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN
THE 30 KT RANGE WITH ISOLATED CASES OF LOW 40 KT GUSTS. ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE REMAINS POSSIBLE, BUT A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT IS NOT
EXPECTED GIVEN WEAK BUOYANCY DOWNSTREAM. ELSEWHERE, MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED, ELEVATED CONVECTION IN
CENTRAL TEXAS.
..WENDT.. 04/18/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1103 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026/
..UPPER OH VALLEY
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN OH, ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 70S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CORRIDOR OF MARGINAL AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM INTENSIFICATION ALONG THE FRONT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IN ANY VIGOROUS CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, CAM GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING VERY FEW
ORGANIZED/STRONG STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLGT
RISK FOR THE CONDITIONAL RISK OF A FEW DAMAGING WIND EVENTS, BUT
WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE.
..TX
ISOLATED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING IN THE
POST-FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS
SCENARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRIMARY UPPER JET MOVES INTO AR AND AWAY FROM THE REGION, BUT WILL
MAINTAIN THE MRGL RISK AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND EXTEND IT INTO
PARTS OF AR/LA.
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