505
ACUS01 KWNS 102002
SWODY1
SPC AC 102000
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VALID 102000Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
..SUMMARY
THE RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
..20Z UPDATE
THE PRIMARY CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS THE ADDITION OF CIG1 TORNADO
AREA, FOCUSED ALONG THE BORDER OF EASTERN GA AND SOUTHERN SC. THE
COMBINATION OF A LARGE/CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH (330
M2/S2 0-1KM SRH PER CAE VWP) AND A WARM/MOIST PBL ALONG AN EFFECTIVE
WARM FRONT WILL CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT A STRONG TORNADO WITH ANY
ESTABLISHED SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS ON THE NEAR-TERM SEVERE RISK, SEE TORNADO WATCH #679.
ELSEWHERE, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, AND ONLY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE.
..WEINMAN.. 10/10/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1128 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026/
..FL BIG BEND/GEORGIA/CAROLINAS
MIDDAY SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
ISAIAS OVER CENTRAL AL WITH A WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO THE SC COAST. A COLD FRONT ARCS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN GA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. THE WARM SECTOR
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS CLOUD COVER THINS AND STRONGER HEATING
COMMENCES. A BUBBLING CUMULUS FIELD WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL SC LATER TODAY AND
THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC. ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS WILL CONDITIONALLY
SUPPORT STORM-SCALE ROTATION WITH STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT
UPDRAFTS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY COINCIDENT
WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WHEN BUOYANCY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
MODELS SHOW SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY EVENTUALLY INUNDATING NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SC AS THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH TONIGHT. A MARGINAL
RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO MAY CONTINUE TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
IS HIGH REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO.
..SOUTHEAST ID
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. A BELT OF 40+ KT 500-MB
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
AREAS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM AND CLOUDS ERODE THROUGH
THE MID AFTERNOON, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP SURFACE TO
500-MB LAPSE RATES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK BUOYANCY. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE VALLEY INTO WESTERN WY. AN ISOLATED
RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS.
..LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WILL UNDERGO AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
DURING THE PERIOD AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING PER THE LATEST NHC FORECAST. AN
INTENSIFICATION OF THE WIND PROFILE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER IS EVIDENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MOJAVE AND SONORAN DESERTS
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. SEASONABLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
ADVECTING NORTH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW-SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK UPDATE.
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