821
ACUS01 KWNS 230059
SWODY1
SPC AC 230058
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST.
..NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
SEVERE STORMS HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY ISOLATED/LIMITED THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, LIKELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO FACTORS SUCH AS
A PERSISTENCE OF SEMI-COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRATUS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS, AS WELL AS MODEST OVERALL
FORCING AND RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL CAPPING REGIONALLY. AIDED BY THE
APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY STILL EMERGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND THE BIG HORNS
VICINITY OF NORTHEAST WYOMING. A STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY
ALSO INFLUENCE AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA. BOUTS
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
REGIONALLY. REGARDING SHORT-TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS IOWA, SEE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757.
..GUYER.. 07/23/2025
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