274  
ACUS01 KWNS 100602  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 100600  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0100 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2023  
 
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z  
 
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER  
EAST TEXAS AND THE ARKLATEX...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY --  
PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ARKLATEX, AND  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL  
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
WHILE AN UPPER LOW GRADUALLY DEPARTS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S., A TROUGH  
DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN-STREAM  
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE  
WEST, A LOW INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT  
EASTWARD, REACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF  
THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FROM THE CANADIAN  
PRAIRIE INTO THE ROCKIES.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS  
THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY THE MIDWEST, AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
...SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
AREA...  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD  
IN A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER FROM WESTERN MISSOURI  
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. CAMS DIFFER WITH THE DETAILS OF  
THE PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING,  
BUT AGREE IN GENERAL THAT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE  
ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY WILL OCCUR BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AS  
STORMS CROSS ARKANSAS AND THE ARKLATEX. WITH A DESTABILIZING  
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE STORMS, AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW  
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA, RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL  
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE, EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO/ACROSS  
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA.  
 
MEANWHILE, ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY, CAMS --  
WHILE STILL DIFFERING WITH OVERALL EVOLUTION -- GENERALLY AGREE THAT  
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS TO THE REAR  
OF THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE FOOTPRINT. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS  
EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN TEXAS BY MID AFTERNOON, AND FLOW  
INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KT AT MID LEVELS, SHEAR WILL SUPPORT BOTH  
ROTATING STORMS, AND ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. VERY LARGE HAIL IS  
EXPECTED, ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.  
SOME TENDENCY FOR UPSCALE GROWTH IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS INTO  
THE EVENING, SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SABINE RIVER ALONG  
WITH ONGOING RISK FOR HAIL/WIND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
   
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL PLAINS  
 
AFTERNOON HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TODAY, AHEAD OF A  
SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT AND EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF COLORADO  
FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT --  
NEAR THE ADVANCING FRONT AS WELL AS ACROSS THE COLORADO HIGH PLAINS.  
 
WHILE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN RATHER MODEST, A FEW STRONGER STORMS  
MAY PROVE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. WITH  
MID-LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE WEST, STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD  
TOWARD LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS, ACCOMPANIED BY  
CONTINUED/LOCAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.  
 
..GOSS.. 06/10/2023  
 
 
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