194
ACUS01 KWNS 061958
SWODY1
SPC AC 061956
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2026
VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WEST-CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
..SUMMARY
A MARGINAL RISK FOR A BRIEF WATERSPOUT/TORNADO IS FORECAST NEAR THE
COAST OF THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
TONIGHT.
..20Z UPDATE
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK WITH THIS UPDATE. FOR
INFORMATION ON THE NEAR-TERM SEVERE RISK, SEE MCD #2346.
..WEINMAN.. 10/06/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1102 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2026/
..CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A DISCONTINUOUS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL
WAVE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FL
PENINSULA. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MODEST ENLARGEMENT OF
THE HODOGRAPH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR,
SUFFICIENT HEATING IN AREAS VOID OF THICKER CLOUDS/RAIN WILL LEAD TO
WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE PENINSULA, AS
WELL AS OVER THE WARM SHELF WATERS WEST OF TAMPA BAY (200-500 J/KG
MLCAPE). RADAR OBSERVATIONS EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED A FEW
BRIEF/TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. EXPECTING AN EPISODIC
CONTINUATION OF THESE CONVECTIVE CHARACTERISTICS TO EVENTUALLY
MIGRATE CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS
LINGER INTO LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, A BRIEF WATERSPOUT/TORNADO
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST OF THE WEST-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
PENINSULA.
ELSEWHERE, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT FORECAST.
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