109
ACUS01 KWNS 221632
SWODY1
SPC AC 221630
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2021
VALID 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN NC/SOUTHEASTERN VA...AND LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN KS/NORTHEASTERN OK BORDER...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE, MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL, AND A BRIEF TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA TODAY. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT.
..EASTERN NC/SOUTHEASTERN VA THIS AFTERNOON
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT SEGMENTS (ONE ACROSS NORTHERN NC AND ANOTHER
ACROSS CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY) WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AS EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA ROTATE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE BASE OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 75-80 F RANGE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS EASTERN NC AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON (18-20Z) ALONG THE FRONTAL SEGMENTS AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ZONE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN VA/NC BORDER, AND STORMS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL
COMBINE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF
100-150 M2/S2 TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE, AS WELL AS ISOLATED HAIL NEAR 1"
DIAMETER, AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.
..SOUTHEASTERN KS/NORTHEASTERN OK BORDER REGION EARLY SATURDAY
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH-TO-NORTH
FROM TX INTO OK, IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OK IS EVIDENCE OF THIS MOISTURE
INCREASE ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED STORMS IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION
AND A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-40 KT. MUCAPE OF 1000-1500
J/KG, MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM, AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
35-40 KT WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST TRANSIENT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL NEAR 1"
DIAMETER.
..THOMPSON.. 10/22/2021
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