344
ACUS01 KWNS 031602
SWODY1
SPC AC 031600
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT SAT OCT 03 2026
VALID 031630Z - 041200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS WILL
SPREAD INTO MN THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE
LIMITED (SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S), BUT A POCKET OF
WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING FLASHES WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES GRADUALLY STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE
OVERALL RISK FOR SEVERE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OWING TO THE
MINIMAL INSTABILITY FORECAST.
A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH/COASTAL TX
INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS WILL ONCE AGAIN SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING OF A MOIST
AIRMASS OCCURS ACROSS THESE REGIONS. GENERALLY POOR LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. A GREATER
CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION MAY FOCUS ALONG/NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST, AS A WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL WAVE CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AIDS NORTHWARD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THIS
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL, LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK, AND CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS CONVECTION TO BE
DISORGANIZED.
..GLEASON/BARNES.. 10/03/2026
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