517  
ACUS01 KWNS 070054  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 070054  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0754 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2021  
 
VALID 070100Z - 071200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND EASTERN  
FLORIDA PENINSULA...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL  
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES,  
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.  
   
..CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/TENNESSEE VALLEY
 
 
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING  
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL  
MOISTURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE OHIO AND  
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY  
ONGOING AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS PLUME FROM NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI  
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS BAND OF STORMS WILL  
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN  
TENNESSEE, NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH  
INSTABILITY IS WEAK AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE, MID-LEVEL LAPSE  
RATES ARE STEEP AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG. THIS SHOULD BE  
ENOUGH TO KEEP AN ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT GOING FOR ANOTHER HOUR  
OR TWO. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH  
QUICKLY LATER THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING DIMINISHES.  
   
..EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
 
 
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING  
EASTWARD NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE  
SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA  
PENINSULA, WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. THE AIRMASS  
NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE DEEP-LAYER  
SHEAR AND MLCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION,  
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND WINDS ARE VEERED TO THE WEST.  
THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE  
BETTER-ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. A HAIL THREAT COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE  
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER  
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE.  
 
..BROYLES.. 05/07/2021  
 
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