859
ACUS01 KWNS 160051
SWODY1
SPC AC 160049
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN IN INTO OH...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO OHIO.
..PARTS OF IN/OH
A SMALL STORM CLUSTER IS ONGOING THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN IN,
NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT. AS A
VIGOROUS MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING, THE WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD. MODEST BUOYANCY WITHIN THE PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL WARM-ADVECTION REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR MAINTENANCE OF
CONVECTION THROUGH PARTS OF OH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, THOUGH
SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SCANT WITH TIME AND
NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT.
IN THE SHORT TERM, LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH MAY ALSO SUPPORT A
BRIEF-TORNADO THREAT, THOUGH THIS THREAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH
AS CONVECTION TENDS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED. SOME THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS COULD SPREAD ACROSS OH THROUGH LATE
EVENING, BEFORE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL STABILITY RESULTS IN A
DIMINISHING THREAT.
..DEAN.. 10/16/2026
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