963
ACUS01 KWNS 251245
SWODY1
SPC AC 251244
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
VALID 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
AN ISOLATED RISK FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE, AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG MUCH OF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY.
.. CALIFORNIA
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A NEGATIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN CA AND OR COAST. AN UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL
SPEED MAX AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WILL MOVE CYCLONICALLY
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW/TROUGH AND APPROACH SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AND NORTHERN CA THIS EVENING AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE
INTO EASTERN OR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CAPABLE OF A
SEVERE-WIND HAZARD WILL POTENTIALLY CONTINUE ON AN ISOLATED BASIS
THIS MORNING FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY/CENTRAL COAST AND PERHAPS
INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA. THE LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WILL POTENTIALLY SUPPORT STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE
CONVECTION CONTINGENT ON SUFFICIENT UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ENLARGED TO YIELD A
LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OF 5) AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL WEAKEN BEFORE RE-INTENSIFYING TOWARDS EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SPEED MAX. A MIX OF LINEAR
BANDS AND CELLULAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES MAY CONTINUE TO POSE AN
INTERMITTENT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO INTO TONIGHT.
..SMITH/WEINMAN.. 12/25/2025
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