000
ACUS01 KWNS 042002
SWODY1
SPC AC 042000
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SAT APR 04 2026
VALID 042000Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK STATE...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE/UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND CENTRAL/EAST/SOUTH TEXAS.
..20Z UPDATE GREAT LAKES REGION
A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN OH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING INTO
WESTERN PA AND SOUTHWEST NY THIS EVENING. DIURNAL STEEPENING OF
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMID FAIRLY STRONG, BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS. A BRIEF
TORNADO ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH ANY ROTATING ELEMENTS, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE NEAR THE STALLED WARM
FRONT/LAKE BOUNDARY. HAVE TRIMMED SEVERE AND THUNDER PROBABILITIES
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER IN WHERE THE RISK HAS DECREASED.
..TN VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TX
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COLD FRONT, A WARM, MOIST, AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM
PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY, SOUTHEAST AND INTO SOUTH TX. IN THE ABSENCE
OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR
(ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT), STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE
TRANSIENT AND LIMITED. STILL, THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SOME VEERING
WINDS THE LOWEST FEW KM COULD SUPPORT AN OCCASIONAL STRONGER OR
BRIEFLY ROTATING STORM. ANY CLUSTERING COULD SUPPORT OCCASIONAL
DAMAGING GUSTS OR SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS NEAR THE FRONT.
THE OUTLOOK REMAINS VALID WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THUNDER AND SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..LYONS.. 04/04/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SAT APR 04 2026/
..MIDWEST/LOWER MICHIGAN TO PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLIES (WITH 50+ KT
PRESENT AT 700 MB) WILL OVERSPREAD IN/MI TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ATOP A GRADUALLY MOISTENING/HEATING BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW OVER WI/MI AND CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED/SOUTHEASTWARD-DEVELOPING COLD FRONT THAT WILL IMPACT
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF OH INTO NORTHWEST
PA SUGGEST SUFFICIENT HEATING AND MODEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL REGIONALLY AS
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN STEEPENING LOW-LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED
LOW/MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, SCATTERED SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. BUT, THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL, MAINLY IN VICINITY OF THE TRIPLE
POINT/NEARBY WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL PA.
OVERALL UPDRAFT INTENSITIES SHOULD DECREASE BY MID TO LATE EVENING,
OWING TO STABILIZING/NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER INFLUENCES, AND THE
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION.
..TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TEXAS
SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN EXTENSIVE THIS MORNING
FROM THE MID-SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST TX, AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THESE AREAS.
EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT AHEAD
OF THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY, MULTIPLE CORRIDORS OF REINVIGORATED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SOME CLOUD
BREAKS/FILTERED HEATING CAN OCCUR. DOWNBURSTS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD, BUT THIS THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED GIVEN LESSENING DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TX.
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