244
ACUS01 KWNS 021245
SWODY1
SPC AC 021244
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 AM CST TUE DEC 02 2025
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FL...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO.
..EASTERN FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL
RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN TN TO OFF
THE FAR WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. A WEAK LOW PRECEDES THIS FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE, CENTERED ROUGHLY 40 MILES NORTH OF AAF. A
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THIS LOW THROUGH
SOUTHERN GA TO JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS FRONTAL LOW IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY, WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN GA AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS.
SOME DEEPER CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITHIN
THE CONFINED WARM SECTOR PRECEDING THIS SURFACE LOW AS INITIALLY
MORE CELLULAR ACTIVITY HAS NOW CONGEALED INTO MORE OF A CLUSTER.
SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL DEEPER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL INTENSITY AND DURATION OF ANY DEEPER
UPDRAFTS WILL BE TEMPERED BY LIMITED BUOYANCY AND A LACK OF STRONGER
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. EVEN SO, WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING GUST AND/OR BRIEF TORNADO WILL PERSIST,
PARTICULARLY WITH ANY OF THE MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.
..OUTER BANKS
A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SC
COAST. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE
MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NC BEFORE
BECOMING FIRMLY OFFSHORE OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THIS TRACK
SHOULD KEEP ANY NOTABLE SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY WELL OFFSHORE, WHERE
THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS. A STRONG STORM OR TWO
MAY APPROACH THE OUTER BANKS REGION, WHERE DEWPOINTS COULD APPROACH
THE MID 60S JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW, BUT THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION IS FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.
..MOSIER/JEWELL.. 12/02/2025
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