898
ACUS01 KWNS 081958
SWODY1
SPC AC 081957
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2026
VALID 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF LARGE TO GIANT HAIL AND
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FARTHER EAST OVER NORTHERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING. VERY LARGE TO GIANT HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS RANGING FROM
60-100 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
..20Z UPDATE
HAIL CONDITIONAL INTENSITY LEVEL 2, AND TORNADO CONDITIONAL
INTENSITY LEVEL 1 WERE ADDED TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL
KS. SOME OF THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS SUPERCELLS
POTENTIALLY REMAINING DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS LONGER COMPARED TO EARLIER CAM RUNS. GIVEN ANTICIPATED STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE TERMINUS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET/BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY INTERSECTION, AND OVER 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
LIKELY, ANY SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE COULD BECOME QUITE
INTENSE GIVEN STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME BUOYANCY. VERY LARGE HAIL
APPROACHING 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER MAY OCCUR WITH LONGER-LIVED
SUPERCELLS. FURTHERMORE, RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW APPRECIABLY
LARGE AND CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS THIS EVENING (GIVEN LOW-LEVEL
JET INTENSIFICATION). AS SUCH, A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
EITHER WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OR WITH A WELL-DEFINED MESOVORTEX AS
STORMS MERGE INTO AN INTENSE COLD-POOL-DRIVEN BOW ECHO MCS LATER
THIS EVENING.
A CATEGORY 4/MODERATE RISK WAS CONSIDERED FOR THIS OUTLOOK. HOWEVER,
IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER SUPERCELLS WILL RAPIDLY GROW UPSCALE INTO
A BOW ECHO, OR MAINTAIN DISCRETE STRUCTURES FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME. IT THEREFORE REMAINS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER SIGNIFICANT-SEVERE
HAIL OR WIND WILL DOMINATE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT MODERATE RISK
COVERAGE OF A SPECIFIC HAZARD. NONETHELESS, VERY INTENSE AND
DAMAGING STORMS CAPABLE OF A COMBINATION OF ALL SIGNIFICANT-SEVERE
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INTO EASTERN KS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (SEE BELOW) REMAINS ON
TRACK, WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THUNDER AND SEVERE
PROBABILITIES TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS.
..SQUITIERI.. 06/08/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1152 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2026/
..EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN NE/KS
A BELT OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH. A SURFACE LOW NEAR DODGE CITY, KS AND MOIST EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO ITS NORTH, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
EASTERN CO AND THE CO FRONT RANGE. STRONG HEATING AND 50S TO LOWER
60S DEG F DEWPOINTS AND STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO LARGE BUOYANCY BY MID AFTERNOON. ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS
WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS. SOME INCREASE
IN LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS TOWARDS EARLY EVENING COUPLED WITH A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY AID IN THE RISK FOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES, IN
ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR HAIL. SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GIANT HAIL (3.0-4.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER) WITH THE
MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS OVER EASTERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SEVERE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING BY LATE EVENING.
..KS VICINITY
A VERY MOIST SURFACE WAS ANALYZED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KS
TO THE EAST OF A TRIPLE POINT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWEST 100-MB
MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 16-18 G/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS VERY
RICH MOISTURE COUPLED WITH HEATING TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND
EARLY DAY OUTFLOW FROM STORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST NE, WILL RESULT
IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS A SEVERE MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN KS AND
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY BY LATE EVENING.
ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE, CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED WITH REGARD TO A STORM CLUSTER AND UPSCALE GROWTH
OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN RIM OF VERY RICH MOISTURE AND A MODEST
SOUTHERLY LLJ. SOME INDICATION EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE EVOLVING CLUSTER AND EVENTUAL SQUALL LINE.
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO RISK COULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
HAVE INCREASED SEVERE-WIND PROBABILITIES AND INTENSITY LEVELS, WITH
THE MOST INTENSE PHASE OF THE SQUALL LINE LIKELY WHERE THE OVERLAP
OF GREATER EFFECTIVE SHEAR (30-35 KT) AND THE LARGE BUOYANCY
RESIDES. A BOW POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF A SWATH OF 60-80 MPH GUSTS
(LOCALLY PEAKING 80-100 MPH) IS FORECAST, ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A COUPLE OF MESOVORTICES CAPABLE OF THESE LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
AND/OR TORNADOES. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THIS MCS MOVES
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF MO LATE.
..SOUTHERN KS/NORTHWEST OK
A DRYLINE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. HOT CONDITIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE
DRYLINE WILL HELP TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS COULD POSE AN OCCASIONAL THREAT OF HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS.
..SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY TODAY, WITH A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRESENT FROM
SOUTHERN IL SOUTHWARD. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS, AND WINDS ALOFT ARE MODEST. NEVERTHELESS, VEERING
WINDS-WITH-HEIGHT AND SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL POSE AN OCCASIONAL RISK
OF STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OR A TORNADO TODAY.
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