627
ACUS01 KWNS 031955
SWODY1
SPC AC 031954
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2026
VALID 032000Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS....
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN EXTENSIVE LINE THIS
EVENING FROM IOWA TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS, WITH THE PRIMARY
THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE OVER
PARTS OF IOWA, MISSOURI, AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
..20Z UPDATE KS, MO IA AND IL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE MO VALLEY.
TO THE EAST, A BROAD AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR EXISTS SOUTH OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING INTO EASTERN MO AND IL. MODERATE
BUOYANCY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF SUPERCELLS.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL REMAIN THE MOST LIKELY NEAR THE COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD WITH A LINEAR STORM MODES. A FEW TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH MORE DISCRETE CELLS AND BACKED SURFACE WINDS
ALONG THE WARM FRONT FARTHER EAST. THE PRIMARY UPDATE TO THE
FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE THUNDER AND SEVERE PROBABILITIES BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, OTHERWISE THE SEVERE RISK REMAINS AS IS.
..SOUTHERN KS, OK AND INTO TX
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN KS, ACROSS MUCH
OF OK AND AHEAD OF A DRYLINE INTO WEST-CENTRAL TX. SOUTH OF THE
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT, OVERALL FORCING WILL
BE WEAKER. STILL, FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OBSERVATION TRENDS SHOW
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS. HAIL (SOME 2+ IN)
IS POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL SUPERCELLS BEFORE UPSCALE GROWTH IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE WITH THE SURGING COLD FRONT.
A LOCALLY MORE FAVORABLE ZONE FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING GUSTS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK
IF SEMI DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OR STRONGER BOWING STRUCTURES CAN BECOME
ORGANIZED/MAINTAINED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..OH VALLEY
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH MULTI-CELL STORMS/CLUSTERS AMID MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR.
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
..LYONS.. 04/03/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1106 AM CDT FRI APR 03 2026/
..MO/IA/IL
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER NORTHEAST KS. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN IA TODAY, WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN IL. THE AIR
MASS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
OF 2000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW IN IA, AND MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS EASTWARD ALONG
THE WARM FRONT. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION,
WITH A CONCERN FOR TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE
MOST INTENSE CELLS.
..MO/KS/OK/TX
AN EXTENSIVE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON FROM WESTERN MO INTO SOUTHEAST KS AND MUCH
OF OK. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAPE WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF
THE STORMS, ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
ROTATING/BOWING STORM STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN, BUT A TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
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