358
ACUS01 KWNS 051954
SWODY1
SPC AC 051953
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT SUN APR 05 2026
VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
..20Z UPDATE
LATEST RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. 5% WIND
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY, AND THE 10% GENERAL
THUNDER PROBABILITY HIGHLIGHTS REGIONS WITH REMAINING MUCAPE AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
..MOORE.. 04/05/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1110 AM CDT SUN APR 05 2026/
..CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC
WITHIN THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE GREAT LAKES, MULTIPLE SUBTLE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS OVER
THE MIDWEST WILL DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS TODAY. ONGOING SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY AN
EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT, BUT SOME CLOUD BREAKS
WILL ALLOW FOR FILTERED PRE-FRONTAL HEATING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VA.
UP TO 100-300 J/KG OF MLCAPE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
MID-ATLANTIC, WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS WHERE GREATER HEATING SHOULD OCCUR. A BROKEN LINE OF
LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. MODESTLY CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND 25-35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT
CLUSTERS/BANDS OF CONVECTION, WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN BECOME STEEPENED. HOWEVER,
POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
..UPPER MIDWEST
WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE MEAGER, COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND VERY WEAK MUCAPE MAY SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING FLASHES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO
NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI NEAR A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING FRONT.
GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS CONVECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT. BUT WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY FORECAST, THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.
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