517
ACUS01 KWNS 070054
SWODY1
SPC AC 070054
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2021
VALID 070100Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND EASTERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES,
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
..CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/TENNESSEE VALLEY
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY
ONGOING AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS PLUME FROM NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS BAND OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
TENNESSEE, NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS WEAK AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE, MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE STEEP AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP AN ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT GOING FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR TWO. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY LATER THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING DIMINISHES.
..EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE
SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA, WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. THE AIRMASS
NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AND MLCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION,
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND WINDS ARE VEERED TO THE WEST.
THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE
BETTER-ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. A HAIL THREAT COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE.
..BROYLES.. 05/07/2021
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