350
ACUS01 KWNS 041615
SWODY1
SPC AC 041614
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST SUN JAN 04 2026
VALID 041630Z - 051200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
..DISCUSSION
A PROGRESSIVE/MODESTLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE CONUS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WEST, GENERALLY RELATED TO A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN, AND A SOMEWHAT MORE PROMINENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS JUST OFF THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SPORADIC, ALBEIT RELATIVELY LOW/ISOLATED, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA, AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RELATIVELY MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE EXPECTED TO MANIFEST LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. HOWEVER, ONLY A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG MUCAPE AND LIMITED-STRENGTH WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 3-4KM AGL
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.
..GUYER/BUNTING.. 01/04/2026
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