839  
ACUS01 KWNS 071614  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 071612  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1112 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2020  
 
VALID 071630Z - 081200Z  
 
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF  
EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF INTENSE DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND A  
FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL MONTANA EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MINNESOTA, TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  
   
..NORTHERN PLAINS
 
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS PARTS  
OF ID/NV TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN  
AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS OVER WESTERN MT/WY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. STORMS WILL DEVELOP  
EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF CENTRAL MT BY  
MID-AFTERNOON, WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN 50S  
DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE OVER 2000 J/KG. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND  
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF  
VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. AS THE  
STORMS SPREAD EASTWARD THIS EVENING, ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE  
WIDESPREAD. MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED, WITH AN  
INCREASING RISK OF CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE. ACTIVITY IS  
EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT, TRACKING ACROSS ND AND INTO  
NORTHERN MN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
   
..WESTERN SD INTO NE/CO/NM
 
 
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE  
INSTABILITY AXIS FROM THE BLACK HILLS REGION SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS  
THE NE PANHANDLE, EASTERN CO AND NORTHEAST NM. SHEAR PROFILES ON  
THE NORTHERN END OF THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW  
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER, WEAK  
FLOW ALOFT, WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND LACK OF UPPER FORCING  
SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE THREAT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL  
BE VERY ISOLATED AND CHAOTIC.  
 
..HART/SQUITIERI.. 07/07/2020  
 

 
 
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