720
ACUS01 KWNS 210536
SWODY1
SPC AC 210535
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN GULF
STATES TO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. DAMAGING GUSTS,
LARGE HAIL, AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO ARE THE EXPECTED HAZARDS.
..GULF STATES/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST
STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING EAST ACROSS KS/NORTHERN OK LATE
THIS EVENING AS A SECONDARY 500MB SPEED MAX DIGS SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST,
THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME MORE PHASED OVER THE MS
VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. NET RESULT WILL BE TO SUPPRESS THE PRIMARY
CORRIDOR OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF STATES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. AS HEIGHTS
FALL ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES, PRESSURES
WILL RISE OVER THE INTERIOR CONUS AND THE SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD
BEGIN TO SURGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
LATE THIS EVENING, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN MS/AL, JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITHIN A ZONE OF
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST AND
SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY. WHILE MUCH OF DAY1 CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED NORTH
OF THE WIND SHIFT, SOME BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR, AND MODEST SBCAPE IS EXPECTED WHERE SURFACE DEW
POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY SO DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS, THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND THE GREATEST
RISK FOR ROBUST CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.
..DARROW/HALBERT.. 02/21/2026
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