061
ACUS01 KWNS 051246
SWODY1
SPC AC 051245
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SUN JUL 05 2026
VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST/WEST
TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
OCCURRENCES OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE FROM WEST INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS AS WELL.
..UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINA PIEDMONT
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER NORTHWEST OH, ALONG
A DIFFUSE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM IA THROUGH
PA AND NJ. EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS LOW TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
JUST AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW AS WELL AS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT, FORCED PREDOMINANTLY BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, ACROSS THE
UPPER OH VALLEY. LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR, BUT WARM AND MOIST
SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL STILL SUPPORT MODEST BUOYANCY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK SO STORM
ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED, BUT A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG COLD POOLS. HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR A FEW STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NJ
WHERE SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW EXISTS.
MODEST LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL MD SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT. DIURNAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS
ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGHING, SUPPORTED BY VERY
WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS (I.E. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S). AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THIS TROUGHING, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY
(I.E. MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG) SUPPORTING STRONG UPDRAFTS AND
POTENTIAL WATER LOADING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, SO THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR OUTFLOW-DOMINANT MULTICELL STORMS TO MERGE INTO
CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS. THE HOT, WELL-MIXED PBL AND RESULTANT,
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
TO BE MORE SPORADIC WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT INTO THE CAROLINAS OWING
TO MORE LIMITED STORM COVERAGE.
..NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY
WARM AND MODESTLY DRY, BUT, GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE, AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS STILL ANTICIPATED. HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL AUGMENT CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD
FRONT TO PROVIDE THE LIFT NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
WESTERN ND AFTER THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST ACROSS
MT CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGH BASED ATOP A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS
BEING THE PREDOMINANT HAZARD.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO EAST TX
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS IN OK CURRENTLY ARCS
FROM EAST-CENTRAL TX (NEAR LFK) NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR MWL AND INTO
WEST TX WHERE IT INTERSECTS A LOW EAST OF LUB. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ONCE THE AIRMASS
DIURNALLY DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED FROM WEST INTO NORTHWEST TX, WITH MORE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED FARTHER EAST. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
BE WEAK, RESULTING IN AN OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORM STRUCTURE. HIGH
STORM BASES AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN
STRONG COLD POOLS ACROSS WEST/NORTHWEST TX, WITH COLD POOL
AMALGAMATION PERHAPS RESULTING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
GUSTS THAN FARTHER EAST.
..LOWER MS VALLEY INTO AL
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND
MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
EASTWARD INTO AL. REMNANT MCS AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LA ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH A SECOND, SMALLER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
ALSO CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL. THESE FEATURES WILL
INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON,
SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AND
A PREDOMINANTLY OUTFLOW-DOMINANT MULTICELLULAR MODE IS ANTICIPATED.
SOME STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE VIA WATER-LOADED DOWNBURSTS AND/OR
OCCASIONAL BOWING SEGMENTS.
..MOSIER/DEAN.. 07/05/2026
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