411
ACUS01 KWNS 230046
SWODY1
SPC AC 230044
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT THU AUG 22 2019
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE HIGH PLAINS...OK/AR...AND PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRONG GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA,
AS WELL AS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
..01Z UPDATE
CHANGES TO THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAVE BEEN MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT
STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS/CLUSTERS ONGOING THIS EVENING.
SOME AREAS HAVE BEEN DROPPED FROM THE MARGINAL RISK, WITH A
CONTINUED MARGINAL RISK BEING HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO
EASTERN MT AND FAR WESTERN ND. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS HAVE BEGUN
DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT FROM
JOHNSON AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES IN WY NORTHWARD INTO ROSEBUD COUNTY
MT. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY SOME HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. DISCRETE CELLS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO EASTWARD PROGRESSING CLUSTERS OR
LINE SEGMENTS, WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR SPORADICALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ELSEWHERE, A SHORT-TERM THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING STORMS ACROSS
SEVERAL AREAS OF THE COUNTRY, BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS. THIS INCLUDES:
A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST NE CONTINUE
TO POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS
CLUSTER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL OK ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, WITH ADDITIONAL SUB-SEVERE CLUSTERS FURTHER EAST
INTO NORTHERN AR. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH THE OKLAHOMA
SEGMENT APPEARING SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF A
STRONGER DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND
REMAINING CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ELEVATED.
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, CLUSTERS OF STORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS
EASTERN NC NORTHWARD TO THE WASHINGTON D.C./CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA, AS
WELL AS A CLUSTER MOVING OVER NYC AND LONG ISLAND. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG GUSTS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
GREATER WASHINGTON D.C. AREA NORTHWARD TO LONG ISLAND. THESE
CLUSTERS ARE MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY AIDED BY 25-35 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. AS STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE, THE THREAT WILL END.
..LEITMAN.. 08/23/2019
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