577
ACUS01 KWNS 021615
SWODY1
SPC AC 021613
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT THU APR 02 2026
VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN....
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR
PROBABLE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN IOWA NORTHEAST INTO
MICHIGAN.
..IA/IL/MO/WI
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NORTHEAST KS, WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET AND DRY-SLOT ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO WESTERN MO. A DEEP SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF OMA WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS IA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
AND SUFFICIENT CAPE IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL POSE A RISK OF
FAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS, TORNADOES
(POSSIBLY STRONG), AND HAIL. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN IS OVER
EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN IL AND FAR SOUTHERN WI. PERHAPS THE
BIGGEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
LIMITED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION, BUT THE APPROACHING DRY SLOT MAY
COMPENSATE BY MID-AFTERNOON AND ALLOW A PERIOD OF AFTERNOON HEATING.
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT IS UNCERTAIN ACROSS
EASTERN MO AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL. RECENT CAM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO SHOW ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FORECAST OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC FORCING, THOSE STORMS THAT DO FORM WOULD POSE A
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
..EASTERN IL/IN/LOWER MI
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS
EASTERN IL/WESTERN IN, AND RESULT IN THE WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PROVIDE
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.
..HART/KERR.. 04/02/2026
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