380
ACUS01 KWNS 201943
SWODY1
SPC AC 201941
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
VALID 202000Z - 211200Z
..NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH TONIGHT.
..20Z UPDATE
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE D1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..THORNTON/MOSIER.. 01/20/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1028 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CONUS,
REINFORCING THE POLAR AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A MAINTENANCE OF DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS, WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED.
SOME DEEPER CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW ALONG
THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST AS WARM-AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS
THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WITH SCANT (AND SHALLOW) BUOYANCY BETWEEN AROUND 800 TO 500
MB. THESE PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST SLEET WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE, WITH MIXED-PHASE PARCELS COMBINING WITH THE
MODEST BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING FLASHES. EVEN SO, THE
OVERALL THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT.
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