953
ACUS01 KWNS 020050
SWODY1
SPC AC 020049
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2026
VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST TONIGHT.
..01Z UPDATE
WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE MCS THAT EVOLVED OVER EASTERN KS/MO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE
WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVER VALLEY, AND
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
SUNRISE. LLJ WILL FOCUS ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO WESTERN KY LATE THIS
EVENING, AND THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE THE MCS TO PROPAGATE DOWNSTREAM,
THOUGH IT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS OK, WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPED
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WIND SHIFT WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE
70S. EVEN SO, POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK FORCING ARE PROVING
DIFFICULT FOR SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION. 00Z SOUNDING FROM OUN
EXHIBITED ROUGHLY 500 J/KG MUCAPE. AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH, WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE BOUNDARY MAY INSTIGATE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT OBSERVED/FORECAST INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANY HAIL
THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FL GULF
COAST, AS EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THIS REGION.
NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND SEVERE IS
NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.
..DARROW.. 03/02/2026
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