006
ACUS01 KWNS 180551
SWODY1
SPC AC 180549
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC...OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...AND ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
KENTUCKY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR
MARGINAL HAIL. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM UPSTATE NEW
YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND, WITH DAMAGING GUSTS OR EVEN A TORNADO. A FEW
TORNADOES MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES, AND
SCATTERED STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR MARGINAL HAIL FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.
..FROM KY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
MODERATE MID TO HIGH LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL EXIST FROM THE OH VALLEY
TO MID ATLANTIC, SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY WAVE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS
REGION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MIDLEVEL DRYING, WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SLOWER MOVING PORTION OF
THE FRONT. SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY FROM KY
INTO WV, WITH PERHAPS WIND OR EVEN TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SRH WILL BE
HIGH AT THAT TIME. AS HEATING OCCURS DURING THE DAY, BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING AS WELL AS VEERING AND WEAKENING WINDS AT 850 MB MAY REDUCE
TORNADO RISK. HOWEVER, AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR BOTH CELLS AND FAST-MOVING
CLUSTERS OF STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTS AND LOCALLY SEVERE HAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
..NORTHEAST
WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, A LEADING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST, WITH
A 90 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX AND COOLING ALOFT MOVING ACROSS NY AND
PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.
SURFACE HEATING AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING 60S F DEWPOINTS
INTO THE AREA WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG MUCAPE EXPECTED. RELATIVELY WARM
PROFILES WILL DEVELOP NEAR 300 MB, SOMEWHAT LIMITING STORM DEPTH.
HOWEVER, AMPLE MIDLEVEL COOLING WILL STILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND BACKED SURFACE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FAVOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. CELLS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NY BY 18Z, AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST,
PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL AND SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS INITIALLY. THE
LOW EL HEIGHT MAY MITIGATE HAIL PRODUCTION SOMEWHAT. BY LATE
AFTERNOON, A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS ENCOUNTER A
STRONGER SRH ENVIRONMENT FARTHER EAST.
..PARTS OF MS/AL/GA/FL
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR WILL INCREASE
FROM LA INTO GA TODAY, AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVE
ACROSS MS/AL/GA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS WHICH
WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST OUT OF LA/MS INTO AL, THE FL PANHANDLE, AND
EVENTUALLY INTO GA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARM, AREAS OF
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MID 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED BANDS OF STORMS, SOME WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER CELLS.
TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED TORNADO RISK.
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING OVER SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN MS AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD, AND THESE WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
..OK INTO NORTHWEST TX
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE, OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TODAY, PUSHING WELL SOUTH OF THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL FEATURE 70S F DEWPOINTS, WHILE DAYTIME
HEATING BRINGS MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE. SOUTH OF
THIS COLD FRONT, LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN TX
WHERE THE STRONGEST HEATING WILL OCCUR.
ISOLATED MORNING THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE PRESENT FROM THE KS/OK BORDER
AREA EASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS, AND MARGINAL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED CAPE. ANY STORMS THAT FORM NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG
GUSTS. THE GREATEST RISK OF LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS OR MARGINAL HAIL
APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK INTO NORTHWEST TX, WHERE THE FRONT
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLY TIMED WITH PEAK HEATING. SHEAR WILL BE WEAK,
BUT EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW IS POSSIBLE.
..JEWELL/WEINMAN.. 06/18/2026
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