861
ACUS01 KWNS 081933
SWODY1
SPC AC 081932
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT THU OCT 08 2026
VALID 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IOWA...
..SUMMARY
LOCALIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND/OR ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT.
..20Z UPDATE
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, AND NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
..WEINMAN.. 10/08/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1123 AM CDT THU OCT 08 2026/
..FLORIDA PENINSULA
VISIBLE-SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOUD SHIELD GENERALLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF A RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FL PENINSULA. FILTERED SUNSHINE GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION IN THE PRESENCE OF
A TROPICAL AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MID-UPPER 70S DEG F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR
(25-30 KT) AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. GIVEN
THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL
ZONE AND SHEAR SUPPORTING POTENTIALLY TRANSIENT WEAK ROTATION, A
BRIEF TORNADO OR WATERSPOUT IS POSSIBLE.
..IOWA
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TONIGHT IN TANDEM WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE DEVELOPING AS WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE TO THE NORTHEAST OF A
NORTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING WARM FRONT. WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40+ KT, THE POSSIBILITY
EXISTS FOR A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE.
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