563
ACUS01 KWNS 300039
SWODY1
SPC AC 300037
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2023
VALID 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS
EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
..01Z UPDATE
WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT ADVANCES INTO
MIDDLE TN/NORTHERN AL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT
SHOULD ENCOURAGE LLJ OVER SOUTHERN LA TO TRANSLATE INTO GA/SC WHERE
WARM ADVECTION WILL FOCUS LATE IN THE PERIOD. EXTENSIVE ELEVATED
CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES FROM NORTHERN LA
INTO GA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SUPPRESS AIR MASS RECOVERY APPRECIABLY
INLAND WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER FORCING WILL BE NOTED. WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, DRIVEN BY WARM
ADVECTION, ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM
FRONT. OTHERWISE, TRUE WARM-SECTOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH
THIS CONVECTION.
..DARROW.. 01/30/2023
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