862  
ACUS01 KWNS 141630  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 141629  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1129 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2025  
 
VALID 141630Z - 151200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS  
MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ISOLATED  
STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT  
BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  
   
..NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
 
 
RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER NORTHWEST ND, ALONG A COLD  
FRONT ARCING FROM WEST-CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MT. A  
SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW TO ANOTHER WEAK  
LOW IN SOUTHEAST CO. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS THE  
PLAINS EAST OF THIS SURFACE TROUGHING, WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS  
EXTENDING UP THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND. MOIST SOUTHERLY  
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINED WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND  
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN UPPER  
60S TO PERHAPS LOW 70S DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE  
EASTERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY EVENING. COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE ABUNDANT  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO VERY STRONG BUOYANCY BY THE  
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MLCAPE WILL  
RANGE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS, WESTERN MN,  
AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NE BY 00Z FRIDAY.  
 
DESPITE THIS ROBUST BUOYANCY, WARM LOW TO MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND  
RELATED CAPPING INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE  
INITIATION, PARTICULARLY WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. GREATEST POTENTIAL  
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN ND WHERE GLANCING  
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN WILL AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG  
THE SOUTHEASTWARD-PROGRESSING COLD FRONT.  
 
ANY CONVECTION WHICH CAN BE SUSTAINED COULD POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE  
TO ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL GIVEN A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND  
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE WARM AND DRY LOW TO MID-LEVELS,  
STRONG DOWNDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS  
ALONG THE FRONT IS POSSIBLE, AND SOME DAMAGING GUSTS COULD OCCUR  
WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL. INHIBITION WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WITH  
EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS MN AS NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER  
OCCURS, LIMITING THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT.  
 
ADDITIONALLY, THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE  
DAY BUT THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING FROM WESTERN KS  
INTO WESTERN IA. ASSOCIATED WARM-AIR ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN  
ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MN. MOST OF THESE STORMS  
SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE, BUT A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.  
   
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL PLAINS
 
 
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SPREADING EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD  
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGH  
CLOUD BASES WILL SUPPORT STRONG GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES  
ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD AND  
ENCOUNTERS GREATER INSTABILITY ALONG/EAST OF A SURFACE LEE TROUGH,  
IT MAY REINTENSIFY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SEVERE GUSTS CONTINUING INTO CENTRAL NE. THE LACK OF STRONGER  
FORCING ALOFT AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD TEMPER THE OVERALL  
SEVERE THREAT WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT.  
   
..EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO CENTRAL ROCKIES
 
 
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL CA WILL CONTINUE  
EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS  
WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE  
GREAT BASIN TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGH  
CLOUD BASES AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SUPPORT STRONG  
DOWNDRAFTS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN  
UT WHERE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN FORCING, BUOYANCY, AND MODEST  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXISTS.  
 
..MOSIER/SQUITIERI.. 08/14/2025  
 

 
 
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