835  
ACUS01 KWNS 281927  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 281926  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0226 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025  
 
VALID 282000Z - 291200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
A SEVERE STORMS THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS INTO  
LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PRIMARY RISKS INCLUDING A TORNADO OR  
TWO AND DAMAGING WIND. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND IS ALSO  
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT FROM NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF THE  
UPPER MIDWEST.  
   
..20Z UPDATE
 
 
A SLIGHT RISK WAS ADDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS  
INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THIS UPDATE. THROUGH THE  
MORNING/AFTERNOON, SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN ONGOING WITH  
ROTATION OBSERVED ON RADAR. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION IS  
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN  
ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ON VAD PROFILES FROM LCH AND POE.  
DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION  
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S (SOME 70S ALONG THE COAST).  
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES WITH A VORT MAX CURRENTLY  
UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUPERCELLS  
AND A TORNADO OR TWO.  
 
ELSEWHERE, THE MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST  
REMAINS UNCHANGED. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE  
INFORMATION.  
 
..THORNTON/SMITH.. 03/28/2025  
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1122 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025/  
   
..COASTAL TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA
 
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER  
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO, AND A VORTICITY MAX OVER  
THE MIDDLE COASTAL PLAIN OF TX. LARGELY DISPLACED FROM INCIPIENT  
OUTFLOW-GENERATED AIR FROM A COUPLE OF WESTERN GULF THUNDERSTORM  
CLUSTERS, SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ADVECTING RICHER MOISTURE  
INTO SOUTHEAST TX/WESTERN LA.  
 
CLOUD BREAKS WILL LEAD TO SOME HEATING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER  
COASTS OF TX INTO WESTERN LA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE  
UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID 60S AS FAR NORTH AS I-20, WILL  
CONTRIBUTE TO 250-1000 J/KG MLCAPE PER MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  
SUFFICIENTLY ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS (0-1 KM SRH 100-200  
M2/S2) AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND APPRECIABLE 0-3KM CAPE, WILL  
SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL SETUP FOR SEVERAL MINI SUPERCELLS. THE MAIN  
THREATS WITH THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT MESOSCALE SCENARIO WOULD BE A  
RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING GUSTS.  
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH REGARDING THIS FORECAST DUE TO LOW  
CONFIDENCE IN A FEW WARM SECTOR CELLS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.  
HOWEVER, IF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP, THE  
GREATEST POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT WOULD OCCUR PRIMARILY IN THE 18-00  
UTC PERIOD. THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY DIMINISH BY EARLY  
TO MID EVENING OWING TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  
   
..NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
 
 
UPPER RIDGING WILL BE GRADUALLY SUPPRESSED TODAY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS  
AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS  
FORECAST TO CONTINUE STREAMING NORTHWARD ALONG/SOUTH OF A SHARPENING  
WARM FRONT ACROSS MN/WI, AND EAST OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS  
EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY MID TO  
LATE EVENING ALONG/NEAR BOTH FRONTS AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION  
STRENGTHENS, FROM CENTRAL NE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN AND  
CENTRAL WI. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT  
OF MODERATE MUCAPE, WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS MARGINALLY  
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ANY SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORMS  
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY  
WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH EASTWARD EXTENT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST  
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH A CONTINUED HAIL THREAT.  
 

 
 
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