726  
ACUS01 KWNS 230058  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 230057  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0757 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2019  
 
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM  
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN  
MISSOURI...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING FROM OKLAHOMA  
INTO MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. TORNADOES,  
LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS ALL ARE POSSIBLE.  
   
..01Z OUTLOOK UPDATE
 
 
A CLUSTER OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED IN NORTHEASTERN  
OKLAHOMA AND VICINITY, WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXTENDING  
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG/NEAR A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KANSAS  
CITY NORTHEASTWARD TO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS  
SUGGEST THAT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES (A FEW SIGNIFICANT) AND VERY  
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY FOR  
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS (ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA) EVEN  
AS STORMS BEGIN THE PROCESS OF GROWING UPSCALE INTO ONE OR TWO  
LINEAR COMPLEXES (REFERENCE MCD 740 FOR MORE MESOSCALE DETAILS).  
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THAT THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE MORE  
EASTERLY ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA AND  
VICINITY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY  
OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND VICINITY AMIDST CONTINUED STRONG DEEP  
SHEAR. THE MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED  
EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS A RESULT.  
 
FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO OKLAHOMA, NEGLIGIBLE INHIBITION WAS NOTED ON  
THE 00Z RAOB FROM OUN ALONG WITH SUPERCELLULAR KINEMATIC PROFILE AND  
STRONG INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE A BIT  
UNCERTAIN GIVEN WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT, HOWEVER STORMS  
THAT PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR  
ALL MODES OF SEVERE, INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND TORNADOES.  
REFERENCE MCD 741 FOR MORE DETAILS IN THIS AREA.  
 
..COOK.. 05/23/2019  
 

 
 
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