905
ACUS01 KWNS 051912
SWODY1
SPC AC 051910
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2025
VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
..20Z UPDATE
THE CURRENT D1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES
NEEDED. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..THORNTON.. 07/05/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1058 AM CDT SAT JUL 05 2025/
..NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO
SOUTHERN ID. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
SPREADING LARGE SCALE FORCING INTO MUCH OF MT THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN WY DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST/BUOYANT AIR MASS.
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN THE PLAINS, COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL. MOST 12Z CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPSCALE GROWTH TO
BOWING SEGMENTS AS STORMS TRACK ACROSS EASTERN MT/WY INTO WESTERN
SD, WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE.
..CO/KS
FULL SUNSHINE IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEAST CO, LEADING
TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WILL FORM OFF THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. A CONSENSUS OF MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL EVOLVE FROM THIS AREA, SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN KS THIS EVENING. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE EXTENDED THE SLGT RISK SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE THIS
SCENARIO.
..SC/NC
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TODAY, APPROACHING THE
SC COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE
COAST OF EASTERN SC AND SOUTHERN NC. OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL POSE A MRGL RISK OF TORNADOES.
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