614
ACUS01 KWNS 010602
SWODY1
SPC AC 010600
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (SOME TO
80 MPH) ARE THE MAIN CONCERN, IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST.
..MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
WITHIN A BELT OF STRONG MIDLEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES, A
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED MIDLEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR
ONGOING/MORNING STRONG-SEVERE STORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MN AND
VICINITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS
AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
DEVELOPING/SPREADING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ALONG
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY, WHERE DIURNAL HEATING OF A MOIST AIR MASS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO STRONG SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY. THIS,
COMBINED WITH AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, WILL FAVOR A MIX OF
SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREAFTER, HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT,
DEPICTING A SECOND ROUND OF UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN MN -- LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND RELATED ISENTROPIC
LIFT. SIMILARLY, THESE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
(WITH INCREASING CLOCKWISE-CURVED HODOGRAPHS). SWATHS OF DAMAGING
WINDS (SOME GUSTS NEAR 80 MPH POSSIBLE), LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL,
AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG A
NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DESPITE MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (AROUND 25-30 KT), STEEP
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. A MIX OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL.
..NORTHEAST
ENHANCED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, WHERE A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AROUND
3000 J/KG MLCAPE. WHILE NEBULOUS MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CASTS
UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND EVOLUTION, THE STRONG
BUOYANCY AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE (ALBEIT MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR)
WILL FAVOR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD-SPREADING CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
DURING THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME HOURS.
..SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, A BELT OF 20-30-KT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE 700-500-MB LAYER WILL OVERSPREAD A HOT/MOIST AIR MASS WITH
4500 J/KG MLCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE LIMITED DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR, THE EXTREME BUOYANCY AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
THAT EVOLVE.
..NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A
SLOW-MOVING MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. PRECEDING
THE TROUGH, AROUND 40 KT OF MIDLEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT A COUPLE LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
..WEINMAN/CHALMERS.. 07/01/2026
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