137
ACUS01 KWNS 221606
SWODY1
SPC AC 221604
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
VALID 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH.
..TX/OK
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS CO TODAY, WITH THE TAIL END OF
LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. AT THE
SURFACE, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION, WHERE A DRYLINE WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS
SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL BE A MIX OF MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MERGING
OUTFLOWS ARE EXPECTED AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN OK
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH TX TONIGHT, WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.
..NORTHEAST NE/KS/NORTHWEST OK
A COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO KS/NE, WHERE A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH
A LOW-END RISK OF HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
..TN/MS/AL/GA
A BROAD AREA OF MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE
PRESENT TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND TN VALLEY, ALONG WITH
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW RATHER WEAK CAPE, BUT SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR SOME
CONCERN FOR TORNADOES TODAY. THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL
MESOCYCLONES IN THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION, AND THAT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AL/MIDDLE TN. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
TORNADO THREAT SUGGESTS THE THREAT REMAINS MARGINAL, BUT A TACTICAL
UPGRADE TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
..HART/LYONS.. 05/22/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page