593  
ACUS01 KWNS 300602  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 300600  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0100 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025  
 
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE  
MID ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS...AND SOUTHEAST...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW  
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS  
OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST.  
   
..MID ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST
 
 
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN  
CONUS TODAY, AS A VIGOROUS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD  
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS VA/NC. IN RESPONSE TO THIS  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE FROM  
EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL KY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY THIS EVENING. A  
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST,  
CAROLINAS, AND VIRGINIA. WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE  
DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL BE SEASONABLY STRONG, BUT INSTABILITY IS  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER MODEST, DUE TO WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES  
AND RELATIVELY MUTED DIURNAL HEATING.  
 
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT  
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD  
ACCOMPANY EARLY-DAY CONVECTION FROM THE EASTERN KY VICINITY INTO WV  
AND WESTERN VA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS FAST-MOVING CELLS AND CLUSTERS  
SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS/BLUE RIDGE TO THE  
CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC COAST.  
 
WHILE A RELATIVELY BROAD REGION COULD SEE ORGANIZED STORMS THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE  
DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE AND HAZARDS. WIND PROFILES WILL BE  
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
CAROLINAS INTO VIRGINIA. ANY SUPERCELLS WOULD POSE A THREAT OF  
DAMAGING WIND, HAIL, AND POTENTIALLY A FEW TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN  
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER, SOME  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRIMARILY A CLUSTER OR LINEAR MODE, WHICH WOULD  
FAVOR MORE OF A DAMAGING-WIND THREAT, THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL AND A  
TORNADO WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS SCENARIO. GREATER WIND  
PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF TRENDS SUPPORT MORE OF A  
CLUSTER/LINEAR MODE, AND/OR IF STRONGER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ENDS  
UP BEING REALIZED.  
   
..EASTERN WI INTO NORTHERN IL/IN AND LAKE MICHIGAN
 
 
A REINFORCING MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONG NORTHERLY  
JET WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT  
BUOYANCY, BUT RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD  
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE  
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL COULD  
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD.  
   
..EASTERN NM INTO FAR WEST TX
 
 
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE  
ACROSS PARTS OF NM AND WEST TX. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST  
MIDLEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE  
OF ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS.  
 
..DEAN.. 05/30/2025  
 

 
 
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