978
ACUS01 KWNS 170033
SWODY1
SPC AC 170032
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 PM CST WED JAN 16 2019
VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...
..SUMMARY
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN ABOUT 6 TO 11 PM PST ACROSS A PORTION
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
.NORTHERN CA
CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A LARGE
SWATH OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, WITH ARRIVAL OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL COOLING AFTER
03Z BEING NECESSARY FOR STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK BUOYANCY SHOULD PREDOMINATELY BE ROOTED
ABOVE THE SURFACE (CENTERED AROUND 850 MB) GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY AND
NEAR-NEUTRAL 0-1 KM LAPSE RATES. NEVERTHELESS, VERY STRONG
LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD SUPPORT ORGANIZATION OF ONE OR TWO
STRONGLY FORCED BANDS OF CONVECTION. GIVEN THE INTENSE AMBIENT
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES (50-60 KT AT 1 KM AGL), MODEST MIXING OF
THIS FLOW FROM WEAK CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
..SMITH.. 01/17/2019
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page