113
ACUS01 KWNS 291621
SWODY1
SPC AC 291619
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...
..SUMMARY
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC.
..MID ATLANTIC
A CONVECTIVELY AIDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH, INCLUDING MULTIPLE MCVS, IS
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. ONE SUCH FEATURE IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST PA, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD CENTRAL PA.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AHEAD OF THIS LINE, SO IT MAY
DELAY INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LATER TODAY. BUT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PA AND MUCH OF NJ/DE/MD SUGGEST THAT THE
LINE MAY BEGIN PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING, ENDING THE
SEVERE THREAT.
..WV/VA
THE PRIMARY MCV FROM LAST NIGHT'S SEVERE ACTIVITY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS NOW OVER SOUTHEAST OH. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS WV INTO CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE
MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FORCING MECHANISM. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MCV, SO
HAVE EXPANDED THE SLGT/MRGL AREAS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS WV/VA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
..MO/IL AND OH VALLEY
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAPE RESIDE ACROSS THIS REGION, WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND AREAS OF STRONG HEATING POTENTIAL.
MOST 12Z CAM SOLUTIONS INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AN AXIS FROM NORTHEAST MO EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL IN/OH. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAPE AXIS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
..WY
NORTHEASTERLY/UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVER EASTERN WY WILL MAINTAIN
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION, WHERE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED
INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.
..HART/KERR.. 07/29/2021
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page