726
ACUS01 KWNS 230058
SWODY1
SPC AC 230057
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2019
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING FROM OKLAHOMA
INTO MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. TORNADOES,
LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS ALL ARE POSSIBLE.
..01Z OUTLOOK UPDATE
A CLUSTER OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED IN NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND VICINITY, WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG/NEAR A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KANSAS
CITY NORTHEASTWARD TO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES (A FEW SIGNIFICANT) AND VERY
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS (ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA) EVEN
AS STORMS BEGIN THE PROCESS OF GROWING UPSCALE INTO ONE OR TWO
LINEAR COMPLEXES (REFERENCE MCD 740 FOR MORE MESOSCALE DETAILS).
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THAT THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE MORE
EASTERLY ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA AND
VICINITY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND VICINITY AMIDST CONTINUED STRONG DEEP
SHEAR. THE MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS A RESULT.
FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO OKLAHOMA, NEGLIGIBLE INHIBITION WAS NOTED ON
THE 00Z RAOB FROM OUN ALONG WITH SUPERCELLULAR KINEMATIC PROFILE AND
STRONG INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE A BIT
UNCERTAIN GIVEN WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT, HOWEVER STORMS
THAT PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
ALL MODES OF SEVERE, INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND TORNADOES.
REFERENCE MCD 741 FOR MORE DETAILS IN THIS AREA.
..COOK.. 05/23/2019
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