123
ACUS01 KWNS 121949
SWODY1
SPC AC 121948
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VALID 122000Z - 131200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT FORECAST ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.
..20Z UPDATE
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, AND NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. IN CENTRAL KS, A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EARLY TONIGHT, GIVEN AN
ELONGATED HODOGRAPH (AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR) AND WEAK
BUOYANCY. HOWEVER, THE EXPECTED LATE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION
AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH
AND THE SEVERE RISK.
..WEINMAN.. 10/12/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1125 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST. A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW WILL
FAVOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MOVING INTO NORTHERN MI OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR WILL BE STRONG, LIMITED ELEVATED
BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND A CORRESPONDING
SMALL HAIL RISK WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
MOIST AND MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING,
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
WEAK BUOYANCY SHOULD TEMPER OVERALL STORM STRENGTH, ALTHOUGH A
STRONG GUST OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
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