863
ACUS01 KWNS 021238
SWODY1
SPC AC 021236
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT FRI OCT 02 2026
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS LOW TODAY AND TONIGHT.
..MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
A PROGRESSIVE STREAM OF WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN EXTENSIVE
NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD, REACHING THE COASTAL NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC BY
THIS EVENING, WHILE OTHERWISE CROSSING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WHILE ALSO BEING COMMON ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF
THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC/DELMARVA LATER
THIS EVENING, SEMI-STRONG WIND PROFILES (35+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR)
WILL EXIST REGIONALLY, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE APPALACHIANS AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THESE REGIONS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT INSOLATION/MODEST
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER, MOIST-PROFILE/SUBSIDENCE-RELATED POOR
LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
..GUYER/DEAN.. 10/02/2026
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