409  
ACUS01 KWNS 250602  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 250600  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0100 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025  
 
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NORTH  
DAKOTA...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID  
ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS  
MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA.  
   
..NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
 
 
A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS  
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT  
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE  
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. MODERATE BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE IS  
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY WEAK  
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE, BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM  
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EFFECTIVE  
SHEAR OF 25-35 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION, AND  
A FEW ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND/OR MARGINAL SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP,  
WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS OR MOVES OFFSHORE.  
   
..NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
 
 
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD  
ACROSS PARTS OF AB/SK TODAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD  
FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY. RELATIVELY  
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE  
TROUGH, BENEATH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODERATE BUOYANCY  
MAY DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS EASTERN MT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VERY  
STRONG BUOYANCY (MLCAPE OF 2500-4000 J/KG) EXPECTED OVER THE  
DAKOTAS.  
 
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ACROSS CANADA, RESULTING IN  
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM COVERAGE AND EVOLUTION DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BULK OF 00Z HREF GUIDANCE DEPICTS AT  
LEAST ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS PARTS OF  
SOUTHEAST MT, POTENTIALLY AIDED BY ONE OR MORE LOW-AMPLITUDE  
MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  
SOME GUIDANCE ALSO INITIATES STORMS FARTHER EAST INTO  
CENTRAL/EASTERN ND, WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED BUT ALSO WEAKLY FORCED  
ENVIRONMENT.  
 
DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY MODEST, BUT SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT  
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-35 KT. INITIALLY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ACROSS  
EASTERN MT MAY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO ND, WITH SOME  
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A STORM CLUSTER OR MCS CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS. ANY DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS  
CENTRAL/EASTERN ND WOULD POSE A THREAT OF HAIL, LOCALIZED SEVERE  
GUSTS, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO, GIVEN MODESTLY ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL  
HODOGRAPHS. A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED WHERE THERE IS SUFFICIENT  
CONSENSUS AMONG CAM AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN  
A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  
   
..CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
 
 
MULTIPLE MCVS MAY IMPACT AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE  
MIDWEST LATER TODAY. THE MOST PROMINENT OF THESE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE  
NORTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF KS, WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE  
ENVIRONMENT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED  
CLUSTERS OR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES, WITH A THREAT OF  
LOCALIZED DAMAGING GUSTS. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF LOW-LEVEL SRH  
ENHANCEMENT (WHICH VARIES AMONG GUIDANCE), A TORNADO MAY ALSO BE  
POSSIBLE.  
 
OTHER MCVS MAY MOVE FROM PARTS OF MO/IL INTO IN/OH THROUGH THE DAY  
AND INTO THE EVENING. THEIR IMPACT ON ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS  
UNCERTAIN, BUT IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF  
THESE FEATURES, THEN LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 
..DEAN/SQUITIERI.. 07/25/2025  
 

 
 
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