411  
ACUS01 KWNS 230046  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 230044  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0744 PM CDT THU AUG 22 2019  
 
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF THE HIGH PLAINS...OK/AR...AND PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRONG GUSTS ARE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA,  
AS WELL AS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC OVER  
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  
   
..01Z UPDATE
 
 
CHANGES TO THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAVE BEEN MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT  
STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS/CLUSTERS ONGOING THIS EVENING.  
SOME AREAS HAVE BEEN DROPPED FROM THE MARGINAL RISK, WITH A  
CONTINUED MARGINAL RISK BEING HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO  
EASTERN MT AND FAR WESTERN ND. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS HAVE BEGUN  
DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT FROM  
JOHNSON AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES IN WY NORTHWARD INTO ROSEBUD COUNTY  
MT. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND  
POSSIBLY SOME HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. DISCRETE CELLS ARE STILL  
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO EASTWARD PROGRESSING CLUSTERS OR  
LINE SEGMENTS, WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR SPORADICALLY SEVERE WIND  
GUSTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
ELSEWHERE, A SHORT-TERM THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING STORMS ACROSS  
SEVERAL AREAS OF THE COUNTRY, BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 1-3  
HOURS. THIS INCLUDES:  
 
A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST NE CONTINUE  
TO POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS  
CLUSTER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME WITH THE LOSS OF  
DAYTIME HEATING AND A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.  
 
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL OK ALONG AN  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, WITH ADDITIONAL SUB-SEVERE CLUSTERS FURTHER EAST  
INTO NORTHERN AR. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND  
GUSTS AND HAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH THE OKLAHOMA  
SEGMENT APPEARING SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF A  
STRONGER DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING  
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND  
REMAINING CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ELEVATED.  
 
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, CLUSTERS OF STORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS  
EASTERN NC NORTHWARD TO THE WASHINGTON D.C./CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA, AS  
WELL AS A CLUSTER MOVING OVER NYC AND LONG ISLAND. THESE STORMS WILL  
CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG GUSTS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE  
GREATER WASHINGTON D.C. AREA NORTHWARD TO LONG ISLAND. THESE  
CLUSTERS ARE MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY AIDED BY 25-35 KT  
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. AS STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE, THE THREAT WILL END.  
 
..LEITMAN.. 08/23/2019  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SPC Page Main Text Page