443
ACUS01 KWNS 292002
SWODY1
SPC AC 292000
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
VALID 292000Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA, AS
WELL AS THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
..20Z UPDATE
THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, AND MINIMAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED
WITH THIS UPDATE. SOUTHWARD-SPREADING STORM CLUSTERS IN SOUTHERN
GA/NORTHERN FL WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANY AREAS OF UPSCALE GROWTH
WILL POSE THE GREATEST SEVERE-WIND RISK PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING. SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #532
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
FARTHER WEST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND RELATED CLOUD COVERAGE OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND
CAST UNCERTAINTY ON THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK. HOWEVER, AS A
SUBTLE/LOW-AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MT
OVERSPREADS THE AREA, THE ONGOING ACTIVITY AND ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES COULD POSE AN
INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL INTO THIS
EVENING. SEE MCD #1797 FOR MORE DETAILS.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM CO
NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN WY MAY ALSO POSE SOME RISK OF STRONG-SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD INTO A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE-WIND RISK WILL BE LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROBUST COLD POOLS AND UPSCALE
GROWTH, AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THIS
RISK WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
..WEINMAN.. 07/29/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1101 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026/
..GA/FL
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS GA. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S AND FULL HEATING
EXPECTED. THIS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SUFFICIENT NORTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 15-25 KNOTS WILL HELP STORMS PROPAGATE INTO NORTH
FL BY EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGER CELLS DUE TO WATER LOADING AND SOME MOMENTUM
TRANSFER. IF OUTFLOWS CAN CONGEAL, A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND
RISK COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING AFTER DARK.
..MT/ND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE MT/ND BORDER. THESE STORMS WILL BE
IN A HOT AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000
J/KG. AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN ND, THE
COMBINATION OF A DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
AND SUFFICIENT FLOW ALOFT WILL POSE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
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