797
ACUS01 KWNS 251159
SWODY1
SPC AC 251158
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
VALID 251300Z - 261200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT.
..FLORIDA
EVEN WITH NEBULOUS/WEAK ASCENT ALOFT, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL
PENINSULA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONT. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL FL WITH DIURNAL HEATING OF A MOIST
LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS, AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL COULD
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CORES GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF RATHER COOL
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES (AROUND -12 TO -14C AT 500 MB). HOWEVER, WEAK
LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD GENERALLY
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
..MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STREAM NORTHWARD
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME STRENGTHENING OF A
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MO INTO IL/IN. MOST GUIDANCE, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NAM (WHICH IS PROBABLY OVERDONE WITH ITS DEPICTION
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND RELATED INSTABILITY), SUGGESTS THAT
MUCAPE WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 500-750 J/KG. EVEN WITH STRONG
CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR, THIS LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD TEMPER THE
OVERALL SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS IL/IN. SMALL HAIL APPEARS
POSSIBLE, THOUGH.
..NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW/LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
OVERSPREADS THESE REGIONS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND MUCAPE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MEAGER (NO MORE THAN 100-300 J/KG).
EVEN SO, SOME LIGHTNING FLASHES MAY OCCUR WITH THIS CONVECTION AS IT
SPREADS GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ISOLATED, LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF WA AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRONG ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A 100+ KT MID-LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING FLASHES WITH THIS ACTIVITY EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN QUITE WEAK.
..GLEASON/KERR.. 03/25/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page