844
ACUS01 KWNS 171949
SWODY1
SPC AC 171947
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
VALID 172000Z - 181200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE OVERALL
THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW.
..20Z UPDATE
THE MARGINAL RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO/NORTHERN UTAH HAS BEEN
REMOVED WITH THIS OUTLOOK. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHOWN GRADUAL
WEAKENING WITH ONLY MEAGER MLCAPE REMAINING. OCCASIONAL STRONG
GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE BUT THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE WANING.
..THORNTON.. 12/17/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1022 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025/
..INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES
A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SUB-980 MB
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT WESTERN CANADA. A STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKEWISE TRANSLATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN/GREAT BASIN REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER REMAINS PREVALENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN ID INTO NORTHERN UT AND VICINITY, WITH COOL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO
PRESENT. MUCAPE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY BARELY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION. BUT, GIVEN THE ENHANCED FLOW AT LOW LEVELS NOTED
ON RECENT VWPS FROM KCBX/KSFX, IT IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED GUSTS MAY EXCEED THE ALREADY
STRONG BACKGROUND GRADIENT WINDS ON A LOCALIZED BASIS. THE MARGINAL
RISK HAS THEREFORE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ID/NORTHERN
UT AND VICINITY, EVEN THOUGH THE OVERALL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LOW.
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