629
ACUS01 KWNS 131301
SWODY1
SPC AC 131300
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
VALID 131300Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF WISCONSIN...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WIND, AND TORNADOES, MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. A MORE CONDITIONAL AND ISOLATED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
..UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES INCLUDING MN/WI
MULTIPLE LEAD MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH
STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THIS REGION PARTICULARLY LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL TEND TO DEEPEN/DEVELOP
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING INTO FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN BY TONIGHT IN VICINITY OF A
SLOW-MOVING/STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW/MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
PREVALENT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 2000-2500 J/KG
BY AROUND 21Z/4PM CDT.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THROUGH
MID/LATE AFTERNOON (21-00Z) AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. LINGERING INHIBITION COUPLED
WITH 45-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE INITIALLY DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HODOGRAPH
ELONGATION APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A LARGE HAIL THREAT, POSSIBLY AS
LARGE AS 2-3 INCHES IN DIAMETER WITH THE MORE ROBUST CELLS.
ADDITIONALLY, ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SRH ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY HIGHER TORNADO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN ROOTED IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.
WHILE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE
CONVECTION/SUPERCELLS, EAST-NORTHEASTERLY STORM MOTIONS ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY PROMOTE CLUSTERING/UPSCALE
GROWTH THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL AND A CONTINUED TORNADO RISK VIA LINE-EMBEDDED CIRCULATION
POTENTIAL.
..NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A SOMEWHAT SEPARATE CORRIDOR OF
SEVERE-WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY UNFOLD TODAY, POTENTIALLY BORN OUT OF
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSOURI VICINITY AND/OR DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. THE INITIALLY
ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-ADVECTING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND 35+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD SUPPORT INITIALLY
ISOLATED HAIL POTENTIAL, BUT A MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE-BASED SEVERE
RISK COULD MANIFEST IF SOME OF THE MORE-AGGRESSIVE EARLY MORNING
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS MATERIALIZE (HRRR/RAP/RRFS).
..SOUTHERN PLAINS INCLUDING OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST REGIONALLY TO
THE EAST OF A DRYLINE LOCATED AROUND PEAK HEATING FROM EAST-CENTRAL
KANSAS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND VICINITY. IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE
DRYLINE, WARM-SECTOR DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE 60S F, SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES TO 2500-3000 J/KG.
THE EXTENT/LIKELIHOOD OF SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION LATER TODAY IS A
KEY QUESTION. THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGH WILL BE WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERT, WITH NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ALTHOUGH EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND DERIVED WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES COULD APPROACH THE
DRYLINE/WARM SECTOR LATER TODAY.
REGARDLESS, AMPLE POST-DRYLINE MIXING AND NEAR-DRYLINE
CONFLUENCE/WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AFTER 21Z/4PM CDT, AT LEAST AN ISOLATED BASIS. FORECAST
MASS FIELDS WOULD IMPLY THAT THIS IS MOST PROBABLE ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO THE NORTH TEXAS BIG COUNTRY, AND
PERHAPS SOMEWHAT SEPARATELY ACROSS THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND RIO GRANDE
VICINITY.
IF/WHERE STORMS DEVELOP AND MATURE, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
40+ KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS, POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS
INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL. AN INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN DEEP
CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COULD
WARRANT FOCUS SLIGHT RISK DELINEATIONS IN SUBSEQUENT DAY 1 UPDATES.
..NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
GENERALLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALONG/NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT WHERE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
MAXIMIZED, IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
..GUYER/BROYLES.. 04/13/2026
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