023
ACUS02 KWNS 210607
SWODY2
SPC AC 210605
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2025
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA....
CORRECTED FOR MISSING HEADLINE INFORMATION
..SUMMARY
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. LEE TROUGHING
WILL BEGIN DURING THE PERIOD WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME STRENGTHENING
OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS VICINITY
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS OKLAHOMA WITHIN A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT. DESTABILIZATION
SOUTH OF THIS CLUSTER MAY SUPPORT STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE ON THE
WESTERN FLANK. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
FARTHER WEST, ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO WEST
TEXAS. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE WITHIN THE HOT, WELL-MIXED
AIRMASS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO BETTER INSTABILITY WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AT THIS TIME WHICH
MAY LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
..SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
ON THURSDAY. 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND -10C.
STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT, WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, WILL PROVIDE EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS. THE COOL
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST-COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
..BENTLEY.. 05/21/2025
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