611
ACUS02 KWNS 310550
SWODY2
SPC AC 310549
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW FOR TOMORROW (MONDAY).
..SYNOPSIS
BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S., WITH UPPER RIDGING
WEST OF THE ROCKIES, WILL ENCOURAGE A MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE EAST
OF THE MS RIVER TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD, AND OVER THE ROCKIES.
HOWEVER, AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS, WHERE DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LAPSE RATES SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN AROUND OR UNDER 6.5 C/KM, CONTRIBUTING TO TALL AND THIN
MLCAPE PROFILES GENERALLY WITHIN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE.
THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY INTENSE. HOWEVER, SPEED
SHEAR, DRIVEN BY THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW, WILL
RESULT IN MODESTLY ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS, WITH OVER 35 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN SPOTS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS, LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SUB-SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. HOWEVER,
A COUPLE STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE GUSTS IF STRONGER
BUOYANCY IS REALIZED. SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN WITHHELD THIS
OUTLOOK, BUT MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS IF
INSTABILITY IS GREATER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
..SQUITIERI.. 08/31/2025
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