582
ACUS02 KWNS 201703
SWODY2
SPC AC 201702
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
..NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST ON TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS
THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE NIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE D2
PERIOD. DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE GULF, INITIALLY
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PORTION BEFORE SPREADING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
PART LATE. THE SLIMMEST OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY (MUCAPE BELOW 100 J/KG)
ALONG THE UPPER TX TO LA GULF COAST MAY COINCIDE WITH MIXED-PHASE
PARCELS, SUPPORTING WEAK CONVECTION INTO LATE MORNING. A FEW
LIGHTNING FLASHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, BUT THE
OVERALL THUNDER PROBABILITY APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
AS DEEP CONVECTION PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GULF, IT IS EXPECTED
TO WANE WITH APPROACH TO SOUTHWEST FL AND THE KEYS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS DECAYING PHASE SHOULD OCCUR IN RESPONSE POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES DOWNSTREAM OF A POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH AND SUBSIDING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
..GRAMS.. 01/20/2025
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