064  
ACUS02 KWNS 271731  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 271730  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2022  
 
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON  
WEDNESDAY, IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE IAN.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD  
ACROSS EASTERN NOAM WEDNESDAY, WHILE A SECOND TROUGH -- INITIALLY  
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC -- SHIFTS INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN  
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF  
THE PERIOD. IN BETWEEN, RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE U.S. GREAT  
PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL AND  
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THE MAIN EXCEPTION  
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WHERE A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL  
BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED, AS HURRICANE IAN SHIFTS OUT OF THE EASTERN  
GULF AND INTO FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
   
..FLORIDA PENINSULA
 
 
WHILE TRACK UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO IAN (SEE THE LATEST  
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER) PERSIST, RISK FOR A  
FEW TORNADOES REMAINS EVIDENT AS THE STORM APPROACHES -- AND  
EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO -- THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW  
INTENSIFIES WITH TIME, SHEAR IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION  
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITHIN BANDED CONVECTION. AS SUCH,  
BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. AT  
THIS TIME, WITH THE STORM TRACK CONTINUING TO TREND MORE EASTWARD,  
FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS TO NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE RISK AREA WILL LIKELY  
BE REQUIRED.  
 
..GOSS.. 09/27/2022  
 

 
 
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