784  
ACUS02 KWNS 291702  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 291701  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1101 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2023  
 
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z  
   
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST ON MONDAY.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD, CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY  
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM KY TO THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST ON MONDAY, AND A  
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND EAST-WEST FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST  
TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. ALOFT, WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL  
PERSIST FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND A MIDLEVEL LOW  
WILL DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. SOME  
SHALLOW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED NEAR THE SOUTHERN CA COAST, BUT  
BUOYANCY MAGNITUDE/DEPTH WILL BE VERY MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE  
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF/SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK-MODERATE BUOYANCY AND STRAIGHT  
HODOGRAPHS WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER,  
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AND STORM COVERAGE IS  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST.  
 
FARTHER WEST, THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS  
ACROSS PARTS OF OK/TX/AR WITH WEAK BUOYANCY ROOTED NEAR 700 MB, AND  
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SUBTLE SPEED MAXIMA EJECTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD  
DURING THE DAY AND THEN AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE MIDLEVEL  
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE BRIEF BURSTS OF SLEET IN OK AND A MIX OF  
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN CLOSER TO THE FRONT, BUT BUOYANCY PROFILES WILL  
BE MARGINAL FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.  
 
..THOMPSON.. 01/29/2023  
 

 
 
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