722  
ACUS02 KWNS 281729  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 281727  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1227 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025  
 
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF  
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA  
INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY ON SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. LARGE TO  
VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, BUT A COUPLE OF SEVERE  
GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL BE  
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER, TWO LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS  
ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. AT THE  
SURFACE, AN INITIAL SURFACE CYCLONE IN WESTERN KANSAS WILL EVOLVE  
INTO TWO DISTINCT LOWS AS THE TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECT IN  
SUCCESSION. ONE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER  
MISSOURI/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WHILE THE OTHER WILL SHIFT THROUGH  
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEFORE WEAKENING BY SUNDAY MORNING.  
   
..EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
 
 
DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT DURING THE  
DAY. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F WILL BE  
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IS HIGHEST IN THESE AREAS.  
FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH, SURFACE  
LOW/DRYLINE, AND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE WIDELY SCATTERED TO  
SCATTERED STORMS INITIALLY FROM NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO  
NORTHEAST KANSAS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR  
SUPERCELLS. NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS, SUPERCELL  
STRUCTURES HAVE POTENTIAL TO LAST LONGER INTO THE EVENING GIVEN THE  
MORE ORTHOGONAL SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE DRYLINE. FROM THE  
FLINT HILLS INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS, SUPERCELLS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST  
FOR A SHORT PERIOD. VERY-LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL,  
BUT WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY WITH TIME AS STORMS WILL TEND TO CONGEAL  
ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN EASTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY  
LAYER WILL BE RATHER WELL-MIXED AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE  
DURING THE EVENING, SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS  
SEEMS PROBABLE. LARGE TO VERY-LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.  
ISOLATED SEVERE/DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO  
POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY AREA OF GREATER TORNADO RISK, CONDITIONAL ON  
SUPERCELL STORM MODE, WILL LIKELY BE FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO  
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLY  
CURVED/ENLARGED. THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW FAR EAST STRONG/SEVERE  
STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MISSOURI. THE CURRENT SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN  
MAINTAINED AS IS, BUT MODEL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.  
   
..CENTRAL/WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
 
 
IN OKLAHOMA, CAPPING FROM AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHOULD SUPPRESS  
CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH 850-700 MB  
WINDS GENERALLY VEERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE, IT BECOMES  
RATHER UNCERTAIN IF CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO INITIATE GIVEN  
PARCELS SHORT RESIDENCE TIME IN THE NARROW ZONE OF ASCENT.  
FURTHERMORE, MID-LEVEL ASCENT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.  
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WEAK SIGNAL FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT AS A  
RESULT. SHOULD A STORM OR TWO MANAGE TO DEVELOP, THE ENVIRONMENT  
WILL BE CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF  
LARGE/VERY-LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WINDS, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.  
 
FARTHER SOUTH INTO TEXAS, A SIMILARLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST.  
STRONGER HEATING MAY LEAD TO A FEW CONVECTION INITIATION ATTEMPTS  
ALONG THE DRYLINE (A SCENARIO HINTED AT BY THE ECMWF/GFS AS WELL AS  
SOME CAMS). ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST IN FAR SOUTHERN  
OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS NEAR A TRIPLE POINT FEATURE ALONG WITH A  
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET CORE. ISOLATED LARGE TO VERY-LARGE HAIL  
AND SEVERE GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY,  
SHOULD IT DEVELOP.  
   
..LOWER MISSOURI INTO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
 
 
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE A SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN IN THE  
KANSAS CITY VICINITY AND TRACK ROUGHLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH  
THE EVENING. A FEW, LIKELY ELEVATED, STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL  
GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT. AN ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUST  
IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE SPATIALLY LIMITED AND CONDITIONAL ON  
A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER DEVELOPING. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN EXTENT  
OF THE THREAT ARE THE MOST UNCERTAIN FOR THESE REGION.  
 
..WENDT.. 03/28/2025  
 

 
 
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