896  
ACUS02 KWNS 221726  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 221725  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1225 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2021  
 
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
STORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SATURDAY NIGHT  
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.  
   
..CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI
 
 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING  
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER INTO SOUTHWESTERN MO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A  
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A CONTINUED  
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE  
PERIOD BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS. IN THE WAKE  
OF THESE MORNING STORMS, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN  
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A  
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN  
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY DEEPEN FROM THE  
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY  
SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS KS THROUGH  
THE PERIOD, WHILE A DRYLINE MIXES EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH MODESTLY STEEPENED  
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1500-2500  
J/KG OF MUCAPE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SATURDAY EVENING.  
THE SURFACE-BASED WARM SECTOR ACROSS KS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CAPPED  
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN VERY WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DURING  
THE DAY. STILL, A SURFACE-BASED STORM OR TWO MAY INITIATE ALONG/NEAR  
THE DRYLINE OR WARM FRONT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS  
SOUTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. IF A STORM DEVELOPS IN THIS  
AREA, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS APPEAR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, GREATER  
CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY  
NIGHT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN KS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MO AS  
MUCAPE INCREASES NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN TANDEM WITH A  
STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. AROUND 35-45 KT OF  
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS,  
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. THESE ELEVATED  
STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY GROW INTO AN ARCING BAND OF CONVECTION BY  
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE CONTINUING TO POSE A THREAT FOR  
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  
   
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
 
 
A HIGH-BASED STORM OR TWO MAY INITIATE OFF THE DRYLINE FROM PARTS OF  
THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OK BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
IF STORMS OCCUR, THEY WOULD ENCOUNTER A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS  
AND AROUND 25-30 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. MAINLY MULTICELLS CAPABLE  
OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR THROUGH  
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DECREASES  
THE THREAT. WITH THE LATE ARRIVAL OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, THE NUMBER OF STORMS, IF  
ANY, THAT CAN DEVELOP REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. HAVE THEREFORE  
MAINTAINED THE RATHER CONDITIONAL MARGINAL RISK FOR HAIL/WIND ACROSS  
THIS REGION WITH NO CHANGES.  
 
..GLEASON.. 10/22/2021  
 

 
 
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