633  
ACUS02 KWNS 061709  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 061707  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1207 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2023  
 
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHWEST...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER  
MIDWEST...COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND FLORIDA...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY  
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, NORTHWEST, NORTHERN  
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST, CAROLINAS VICINITY, AND FLORIDA.  
   
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
 
 
THE OVERALL UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY  
UNCHANGED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CONUS. UPPER  
RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH  
SOME EXPANSION NORTHWARD/NORTHWESTWARD INTO MORE OF SOUTHERN BRITISH  
COLUMBIA AND THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALSO  
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, ANCHORED BY A CLOSED LOW  
CENTERED OVER ME. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE  
THROUGH THIS CYCLONIC FLOW, INCLUDE ONE THAT MOVES INTO THE  
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE LATE EVENING.  
 
FARTHER WEST, AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY  
DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NV. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE  
SUBTROPICAL JET IS FORECAST SOUTH OF THIS LOW, STRETCHING ACROSS THE  
BAJA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS.  
   
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND FL PENINSULA
 
 
A NONDESCRIPT SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE, WITH ONLY MODEST LEE  
TROUGHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE DEEPEST AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE OVER ME. EVEN SO, A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS  
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WITHIN THIS  
BROADER REGION, A FEW AREAS APPEARS TO HIGHER A RELATIVELY GREATER  
SEVERE RISK INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, COASTAL CAROLINAS,  
AND THE EAST COAST OF FL. IN EACH OF THESE AREAS, A MODEST INCREASE  
IN DEEP-LAYER FLOW MAY RESULT IN STRONGER SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL  
FOR A MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. A PREDOMINANTLY MULTICELLULAR MODE IS  
ANTICIPATED IN EACH OF THESE AREA AS WELL, BUT LOOSELY ORGANIZED  
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SPREADING EASTWARD MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THROUGH THE  
DAY. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TX TRANS PECOS WHERE  
BUOYANCY WILL BE GREATEST.  
   
..LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
 
 
A RIBBON OF GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED FROM THE LOWER  
MO VALLEY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS. HERE, INCREASING  
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY  
SEPARATING THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE ONE OVER  
THE PLAINS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST WITHIN  
THIS ENVIRONMENT AFTER THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. SHEAR WILL BE  
MODEST, BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND  
ISOLATED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.  
   
...NORTHERN CA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
 
 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE CA UPPER LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE  
TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND LOW SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM  
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MODEST, BUT INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE  
AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BOOST BUOYANCY, HELPING SUPPORT  
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH CLOUD BASES ATOP A DEEPLY  
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG  
DOWNDRAFTS, WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS THE  
REGION. GIVEN THE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES, A FEW ISOLATED  
INSTANCES OF HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  
 
..MOSIER.. 06/06/2023  
 

 
 
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