155
ACUS02 KWNS 030530
SWODY2
SPC AC 030529
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2026
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, SOUTH-CENTRAL
COLORADO, AND NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH
STRONGER STORMS IN THE CAROLINAS.
..SYNOPSIS
A BROAD, CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES, TO THE NORTH OF AN ELONGATING UPPER HIGH OVER
THE LOWER CO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WITHIN THAT PATTERN,
THERE IS A MODEL SIGNAL THAT A LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY. ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TUESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE
SLOWLY SHIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE, A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
THE BOUNDARY TRAILING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY EVOLVE ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE MID OR LOWER MO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
..SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED BY MID AFTERNOON
ALONG THE GILA MOUNTAINS AND HIGH TERRAIN NEARER TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MLCAPE UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG. THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP, WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENHANCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL IN THE
SUB-CLOUD LAYER WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LOCALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AS STORMS ADVANCE SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER DESERT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOME THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
MAY EXIST WITH THE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
OWING TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
...SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...
A RELATIVELY SMALL SPATIAL CORRIDOR OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND 30-35
KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO MATERIALIZE IN THE LEE OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
FAVORED CORRIDOR EXTENDS FROM WHERE THE SURFACE FRONT INTERSECTS THE
HIGH TERRAIN NORTHWARD WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE.
SEVERAL OF THE 00Z CAMS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS CAPABLE OF A FEW OCCURRENCES OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..CAROLINAS
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP-LAYER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WHERE
STRONGER HEATING CAN OCCUR, THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE UP TO 1000-2000 J/KG. WHILE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW, VERTICAL
SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE STORM DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION. NONETHELESS, STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY ENHANCE WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL, WITH A
FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
..MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODELS SUGGESTS THE MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN NE
AND IA WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED, BUT ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY
SEVERE HAIL THREAT. THERE IS SOME MODEL SIGNAL FOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN WI. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIABILITY IN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, AND THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR, NO PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED
IN THIS FORECAST.
..MEAD.. 08/03/2026
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