975  
ACUS02 KWNS 101720  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 101718  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1218 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
 
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH  
DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND  
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE  
WIND AND HAIL MAY IMPACT PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS  
SOUTH PLAINS, AS WELL AS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO  
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA, LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
   
..DISCUSSION  
 
WHILE THE WESTERLIES GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER  
LATITUDES, ONE SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO  
CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH THE  
INTERNATIONAL BORDER VICINITY, TO THE WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES,  
DURING THIS PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ONE  
INITIAL SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
DAKOTAS AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/ADJACENT GREAT LAKES  
REGION BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
OTHERWISE, WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING LIKELY WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR U.S., TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES,  
BETWEEN LARGE-SCALE MEAN RIDGING CENTERED OFFSHORE OF BOTH THE  
PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC COASTS. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL  
ZONE, STILL REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW IN SOME LOCATIONS, IS  
LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH LOWER MISSOURI  
VALLEY AND TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO EARLY MONDAY, BEFORE GENERALLY  
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
SEASONABLY HIGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT PROBABLY WILL BE  
MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE STALLED/SLOW MOVING REMNANT FRONT, ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST, AS WELL AS IN A CORRIDOR ALONG AND TO THE  
NORTH IT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSOURI  
VALLEY MAY BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LEAD REINFORCING  
COOL INTRUSION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  
   
..SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO GREAT LAKES  
 
THE SEASONABLY HIGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT, ALONG/JUST  
NORTH OF THE WEAKENING FRONT, MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HIGHER CAPE WITH INSOLATION  
MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, IT APPEARS THAT A NUMBER OF CONVECTIVELY  
GENERATED OR AUGMENTED PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE GENERALLY WEAK  
SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING AND AFTER PEAK HEATING. SOME OF THIS  
COULD POSE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT  
THE COVERAGE OF ANY SUCH ACTIVITY STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN  
RATHER SPARSE IN NATURE.  
 
ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG A MODIFYING SEGMENT OF THE  
BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS  
SOUTH PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, BENEATH STEEPER  
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A PLUME OF  
WARM ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR. THERE APPEARS A GENERAL CONSENSUS  
WITHIN THE VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUT THAT A DIGGING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE,  
WITHIN A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL REGIME, MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT  
FOR A RELATIVELY NOTABLE UPSCALE GROWING/SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING  
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER.  
 
FARTHER NORTHEAST, THE NAM, PERHAPS MORE SO THAN OTHER MODEL OUTPUT,  
SUGGESTS THAT A NOTABLE MCV MAY EMERGE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTION  
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, BEFORE SLOWLY MIGRATING ACROSS THE  
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY  
NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A PERTURBATION OF THE STRENGTH SUGGESTED  
BY THE NAM COULD, AT SOME POINT, SUPPORT ANOTHER NOTABLE EVOLVING  
CLUSTER WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. AT THIS POINT,  
HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS STILL SEEMS LOW, WITH TOO MUCH  
UNCERTAINTY TO INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT PROBABILITIES WITHOUT UNDULY  
LARGE FALSE ALARM AREA.  
   
..NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS  
 
A MOISTENING BOUNDARY-LAYER, AIDED BY EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND PERHAPS  
THE ONSET OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON STRENGTHENING  
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW, MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE CAPE WITHIN A  
CORRIDOR OF STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE HEATING BY LATE AFTERNOON.  
COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER MEAN WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR,  
DOWNSTREAM OF A DIGGING 50+ KT 500 MB JET, IT APPEARS THAT THE  
ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE TO VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG  
SURFACE GUSTS. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING SEVERE  
LIMITS APPEARS HIGHEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING  
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA,  
WHERE WARM, UNSATURATED LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP  
LAPSE RATES WILL AID DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER VIA ENHANCED MELTING  
AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS.  
 
..KERR.. 08/10/2025  
 
 
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