859  
ACUS02 KWNS 030611  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 030610  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0110 AM CDT WED JUN 03 2020  
 
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
AND MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY, WITH OTHER  
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS  
AND FROM THE OZARKS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.  
   
..CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
 
 
GUIDANCE VARIABILITY STILL EXISTS IN THE DAY 2 TIME FRAME, MUCH OF  
WHICH IS A BYPRODUCT OF POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT (WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT). REGARDLESS, A SEVERE RISK IS STILL PROBABLE PARTICULARLY  
ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA, WHICH WOULD BE ON THE WESTERN  
FRINGES OF ANY CONVECTION/OUTFLOW/COLD POOL INFLUENCES THAT LINGER  
THURSDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS, THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A  
MODERATELY STRONG BELT OF LOW-AMPLITUDE WESTERLIES. A RELATIVELY  
MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE NEAR  
A SURFACE LOW/FRONT ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER VICINITY  
AND ALONG/EAST OF A SOUTHWARD-EXTENDING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS  
WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.  
 
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR BY  
MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH  
DAKOTA. STEEP LAPSE RATES, MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY (2000-3500  
J/KG MLCAPE) IN THE PRESENCE OF 40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE  
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY SOME  
TORNADO RISK. ONE OR MORE SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING FORWARD-PROPAGATING  
CLUSTERS OF STORMS COULD EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING AND SPREAD  
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WIND/HAIL THREAT.  
   
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
 
 
AT LEAST ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
WITHIN THE HOT/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH.  
ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY  
OF STRONGER STORMS, WITH SOME ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE POSSIBLE AIDED  
BY STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. ISOLATED SEVERE  
HAIL/WIND APPEARS POSSIBLE INCLUDING WESTERN PORTIONS OF  
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TEXAS PARTICULARLY  
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  
   
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES
 
 
NEAR/SOUTH OF A FRONT ACROSS THESE REGIONS, MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY  
DEVELOP PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF VIRGINIA/DELMARVA THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE STRONG, BUT 20-25 KT  
MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO OVERLIE MUCH OF THE FRONTAL  
CORRIDOR. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH WIND  
DAMAGE AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK COULD  
EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.  
 
..GUYER.. 06/03/2020  
 

 
 
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