450
ACUS02 KWNS 241732
SWODY2
SPC AC 241730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A RISK FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW TORNADOES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX, PRIMARILY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..SYNOPSIS
A DEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO ANCHOR A LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INITIALLY OFF OF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM, A
LOW-AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY EMERGE FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS BY AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE, A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS
THE TX PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW INTO PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TX.
AN OUTFLOW-INFLUENCED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL INITIALLY EXTEND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
PARTS OF OK/NORTH TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.
..SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX
RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP A RICHLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
DRYLINE AND NEAR/SOUTH OF THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT. DETAILS OF
DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE REMAIN UNCLEAR, BUT AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR OR JUST TO THE COOL
SIDE OF THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON, AS THE
APPROACHING LOW-AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCES THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY. INITIAL STORMS ACROSS EASTERN KS/OK MAY BE
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED, BUT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION AND EXPAND IN
COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING.
INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING GUSTS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN MODEST, BUT LARGE INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED SRH NEAR
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD RESULT IN A LOCALIZED REGION OF GREATER
TORNADO POTENTIAL. WITH TIME, SOME UPSCALE GROWTH MAY RESULT IN AN
ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE ARKLATEX AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. THIS EVOLUTION COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING
DAMAGING-WIND POTENTIAL, THOUGH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS MAY CONTINUE TO
POSE A LOCALIZED HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT WELL INTO THE EVENING.
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS TX CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN,
SINCE THIS AREA WILL BE REMOVED FROM STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
HOWEVER, STRONG HEATING AND REMOVAL OF CINH COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT, WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL, AND A NONZERO TORNADO AND WIND RISK.
FARTHER NORTH, A SEPARATE AREA OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FROM
CENTRAL/NORTHERN KS INTO SOUTHEAST NE. WHILE INSTABILITY AND
DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE WEAKER WITH NORTHWARD
EXTENT, COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MODEST MIDLEVEL FLOW COULD
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
..PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA
A BROAD AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA,
NEAR AND TO THE WARM SIDE OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. WIND PROFILES
WILL BE RELATIVELY MODEST, BUT MAY SUPPORT MARGINALLY ORGANIZED
STORMS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY REGARDING PLACEMENT OF THE
PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL FOR ANY MCV DEVELOPMENT FROM
LATE D1/FRIDAY. LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO
EXPANDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, ONCE DETAILS BECOME BETTER
RESOLVED.
..DEAN.. 04/24/2026
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