802  
ACUS02 KWNS 140601  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 140600  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0100 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020  
 
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA AREA...THE  
SOUTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY...AND THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL  
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT  
LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI, OVER THE NORTHERN  
MINNESOTA VICINITY, AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE -- CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WILL  
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY.  
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE, SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE  
EXPECTED TO PIVOT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION.  
 
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S., SEVERAL FAST-MOVING CYCLONIC  
DISTURBANCES -- EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW -- WILL SHIFT ACROSS  
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE AND ADJACENT NORTH-CENTRAL STATES, AND INTO THE  
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. FARTHER EAST, A WEAK/SLOW-MOVING UPPER  
TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE  
PERIOD.  
   
..LOWER MICHIGAN VICINITY TO EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI
 
 
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED FROM LOWER MICHIGAN  
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MISSOURI, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE  
FRONT/TROUGH. WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN SLIGHTLY  
ENHANCED (AROUND 20 KT) MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, LARGE-SCALE  
ASCENT -- FOCUSED NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY -- SHOULD SUPPORT A  
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- PEAKING IN COVERAGE  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STRONGER STORMS  
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS --  
POSSIBLY APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS LOCALLY, ALONG WITH MARGINAL  
HAIL. THREAT WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN TANDEM WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION.  
   
..PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY
 
 
SEVERAL CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT  
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWARD IN A MORE  
ISOLATED MANNER INTO COLORADO, AS MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN  
CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A DEEP MIXED LAYER EVOLVING  
BENEATH MODERATE CAPE ABOVE WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER  
STORMS TO PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS, ALONG WITH SOME  
POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. STORMS  
COULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/TEXAS  
PANHANDLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, WITH ATTENDANT RISK  
FOR LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  
   
..PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
 
 
MODEST INSTABILITY/WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD CHARACTERIZE THE  
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FROM SOUTHERN VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD TO  
GEORGIA SATURDAY, AHEAD OF THE WEAK/SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH.  
STILL, WITH AMPLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT, EXPECT WIDESPREAD  
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
WITH 20 TO 25 KT MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA,  
RESULTING/MODEST SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED/MULTICELL  
CLUSTERS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS LOCALLY -- POSSIBLE  
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME TREE DAMAGE. THREAT WILL PEAK BY LATE  
AFTERNOON, BEFORE DIMINISHING GRADUALLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  
   
..NORTHERN MINNESOTA AREA
 
 
WEAK AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA  
AND VICINITY IN TANDEM WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AS A SERIES OF  
CYCLONIC DISTURBANCES WITHIN ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW  
SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S., ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM  
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THIS AREA. GIVEN RATHER FAST-MOVING  
STORMS AND SOMEWHAT DRY LOWER LEVELS, GUSTY/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS  
MAY OCCUR WITH ONE OR TWO OF THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH EARLY  
EVENING.  
 
..GOSS.. 08/14/2020  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SPC Page Main Text Page