161  
ACUS02 KWNS 160517  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 160517  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1217 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2019  
 
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z  
   
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS ON  
THURSDAY. THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT SLOWLY  
NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW BRUNSWICK AND NOVA SCOTIA. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER  
TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING WILL MIGRATE EAST  
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES, EXTENDING FROM MT TO NM BY FRIDAY  
MORNING.  
 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS MOST OF THE  
COUNTRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THE WEST AND EAST COAST TROUGHS  
SHIFTS EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL STATES. SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE AND A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE ONLY  
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA WHERE THE  
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A COLD FRONT RELATED THE NEW ENGLAND LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MODIFIED. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT WEAK FORCING/SHEAR/INSTABILITY  
WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE CONCERNS.  
 
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
COAST AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD  
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT  
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER EAST, MIDLEVEL  
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY  
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHILE COOLING ALOFT ALLOWS STEEPENING OF  
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS FORCING INCREASES AS THE TROUGH EJECTS  
EASTWARD, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  
   
..MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD
 
 
TORNADO: <2% - NONE  
WIND: <5% - NONE  
HAIL: <5% - NONE  
 
..LEITMAN.. 10/16/2019  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SPC Page Main Text Page