398  
ACUS02 KWNS 231732  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 231730  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1230 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR  
NORTHEAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK INTO PARTS OF AR AND SOUTHERN MO...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN  
OKLAHOMA, NORTH TEXAS, MUCH OF ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN  
MISSOURI, AND SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE  
MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY, WHILE A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD  
DEVELOP FROM THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO  
THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW INITIALLY  
ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD LIKEWISE DEVELOP  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY.  
   
..MID MS VALLEY TO NORTH TX
 
 
PRIMARY CHANGE WITH THIS OUTLOOK WAS TO INCLUDE HIGHER PROBABILITIES  
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM FAR NORTHEAST TX/SOUTHEASTERN  
OK INTO PARTS OF AR AND SOUTHERN MO. EVEN THOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT  
WILL BE RELATIVELY MODEST, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING  
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT LEAST  
SOME DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF  
THE FRONT, AND MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG SHOULD BE PRESENT ACROSS THE  
WARM SECTOR THROUGH PEAK HEATING. STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS  
ALSO FORECAST TO BE PRESENT FROM NORTH TX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY,  
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL EASILY SUPPORT UPDRAFT  
ORGANIZATION WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM. THE NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL  
AND STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL MAY BE  
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH INITIALLY SEMI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AND  
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT SHOULD EXIST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT. EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS  
SEEMS PROBABLE BY EARLY EVENING AS CONVECTION GROWS UPSCALE ALONG  
THE COLD FRONT, WITH THE MAIN THREAT PROBABLY TRANSITIONING TO  
DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT FORECAST TO BE OVERLY  
STRONG, A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY INITIAL  
SUPERCELLUL DEVELOPMENT.  
   
..MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD
 
 
TORNADO: 2% - MARGINAL  
WIND: 15% - SLIGHT  
HAIL: 15% - SLIGHT  
 
..GLEASON.. 03/23/2019  
 

 
 
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