026
ACUS02 KWNS 230553
SWODY2
SPC AC 230551
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...THE SOUTHEAST...AND NORTHERN MAINE...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS/HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COUPLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS MAY
ALSO OCCUR WITH STORMS IN MAINE AND ALONG PARTS OF THE GULF COAST TO
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ON
MONDAY WITH SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DAKOTAS. MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT.
SUBTLE FORCING FROM THE HEIGHT FALLS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR 75+ MPH WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION, IF ANY LONGER LIVED
SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP, 2+ INCH HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STRONGER
FORCING, HINTED AT BY THE MORE AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH ON THE 00Z
NAM, WOULD SUPPORT GREATER STORM COVERAGE AND POTENTIALLY GREATER
HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS
STORMS MOVE INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS, WHERE STRONG HEATING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST, SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. STORM MODE
WILL BE SINGLE CELL TO MULTICELL, WITH ONLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS OF SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL SUPPORT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND THREAT.
..SOUTHEAST
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AMID MID 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL
YIELD MLCAPE OVER 2000 J/KG FROM LOUISIANA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. DESPITE WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW, ENOUGH MOISTURE-FUELED
BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR WET DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
..MAINE
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF AN EJECTING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE.
A BELT OF 60 KT 500 MB SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH AND OVERSPREAD MAINE DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHEN
BUOYANCY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. MLCAPE MAY EXCEED 750 J/KG WITH OVER 50
KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK/SPEED SHEAR. THEREFORE, ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY BECOME MULTICELLULAR OR TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULAR IN
NATURE, POSTING AN ISOLATED DAMAGING GUST/HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
..BENTLEY.. 08/23/2026
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