985  
ACUS02 KWNS 220602  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 220600  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0100 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2025  
 
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST  
COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST KANSAS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH MORE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
A RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES  
ON FRIDAY. MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RESULT IN  
LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A DRYLINE WILL  
EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND INTO THE TEXAS  
PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS.  
   
..NORTHEAST COLORADO, SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, AND NORTHWEST KANSAS  
 
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BACK THROUGH THE DAY WITH  
CONSISTENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE A DRYLINE ACROSS  
NORTHEAST KANSAS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY  
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE TO THE MID-LEVELS  
WITHIN THE STRONGLY MIXED ZONE ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MID TO LATE  
AFTERNOON. UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS, BUT AS THE  
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND STRENGTHENS, INCREASED ISENTROPIC ASCENT  
AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING  
THE EVENING. STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE  
HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  
   
..WEST TEXAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE  
 
HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH A VERY  
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE  
DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING WITH SOME  
ORGANIZATION. STORM MODE IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING GREATER  
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. MODEST SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL  
STRUCTURES AMID MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE DEEPLY MIXED  
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WHICH MAY SUPPORT  
RATHER QUICK CLUSTERING AND A MORE MULTICELL MODE. A ZONE FROM NEAR  
MIDLAND TO WICHITA FALLS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A SLIGHT RISK OF STORM  
MODE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUST  
THREAT.  
   
..EASTERN KANSAS, OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS  
 
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE  
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AND STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY MAY  
NOT BE THAT GREAT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, MORE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO PARTS OF  
OKLAHOMA, SOUTHWEST MISSOURI, AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. LARGE HAIL MAY  
BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS OVERNIGHT ELEVATED ACTIVITY.  
   
..EASTERN FLORIDA  
 
RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS  
FLORIDA TODAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE SOUTH OF A  
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MODEST  
MID-LEVEL FLOW (25 TO 30 KNOTS) WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR  
SOME MULTICELL STORM ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING  
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  
 
..BENTLEY.. 05/22/2025  
 
 
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