417
ACUS02 KWNS 140544
SWODY2
SPC AC 140542
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO APPEAR LOW ON
WEDNESDAY.
.. SYNOPSIS
A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL TAKE
ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE ELONGATED
HIGHEST HEIGHTS WITHIN THE RIDGE FOUND FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS
WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PART DUE TO AN EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW
BUILDING THE RIDGE AXIS NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN CANADA, A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGING UPON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE, AND A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW UNDERCUTTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE RIDGE AS IT BEGINS TO BE DRAWN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES.
AT THE SURFACE, GENERALLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS
MOST OF THE CONUS -- THE EXCEPTION LARGELY BEING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN US, WITH A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SERVING TO DELINEATE THE WARM, MOIST AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH
FROM THE COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS TO THE NORTH.
.. NORTHERN NEW JERSEY NORTH/EAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WHERE MUCAPE VALUES SHOULD INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE GREATER MID-LEVEL FLOW, CONTRIBUTING TO
EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 45 KNOTS.
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS MAY OVERSPREAD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED
MAXIMUM. THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND FAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
BEST SIGNAL FOR INITIATION IS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND/NEW YORK, WHICH WILL LIMIT THEIR POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SEVERE WEATHER BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY (AND THUS FARTHER INLAND) OR
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS GREATER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE REALIZED AND SEVERE
PROBABILITIES WOULD NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN A LATER OUTLOOK.
.. WESTERN MONTANA
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, THANKS IN
LARGE PART TO THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MODEST DIURNAL HEATING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING, WHICH WOULD IMPACT OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND RESULTING THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. SHOULD ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOP, THE REGION REMAINS BENEATH ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
FLOW THAT MAY BE TRANSPORTED DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WINDS/OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS
TOO LOW TO WARRANT UNCONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITH THIS
OUTLOOK.
..MARSH.. 07/14/2026
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