095
ACUS02 KWNS 070702
SWODY2
SPC AC 070700
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST WED JAN 07 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY FROM OKLAHOMA INTO
PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER/MID MS
VALLEY...
A NEGATIVE-TILT MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
IMPINGE UPON INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MUCAPE OF NEAR/ABOVE
500 J/KG FROM LATE D1/WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY D2/THURSDAY MORNING,
RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
QUITE FAVORABLE, AND THE STRONGEST MORNING STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. THE MARGINAL
RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED WESTWARD ACROSS OK AND SOUTHERN KS, WITH
RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SHORTWAVE TIMING. MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORNING CONVECTION MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED,
BUT LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM CENTRAL OK INTO
SOUTHEAST KS.
WITH TIME, THE MORNING STORMS WILL ENCOUNTER DECREASING BUOYANCY,
BUT IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN BE SUSTAINED, THEN SOME THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND COULD SPREAD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY AND
POSSIBLY A LARGER PORTION OF THE MIDWEST AND LOWER OH VALLEY, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE. THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OF
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY OUTPACE RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
FARTHER SOUTH, SEVERE POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE CONDITIONAL FROM PARTS
OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH, WITH STRONGER ASCENT EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THIS REGION. WHILE BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN WEAK,
LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS
REGION, WITH THE ECMWF AND RRFS BEING SOMEWHAT MORE AGGRESSIVE,
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY MORE MUTED. IF ROBUST CONVECTION
CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT, THEN SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO COULD EVOLVE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
..ARIZONA
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS PARTS OF AZ, AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL
COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION, THOUGH BUOYANCY IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MEAGER FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT.
..DEAN.. 01/07/2026
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