633
ACUS02 KWNS 061709
SWODY2
SPC AC 061707
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2023
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHWEST...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND FLORIDA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, NORTHWEST, NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST, CAROLINAS VICINITY, AND FLORIDA.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE OVERALL UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CONUS. UPPER
RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH
SOME EXPANSION NORTHWARD/NORTHWESTWARD INTO MORE OF SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALSO
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, ANCHORED BY A CLOSED LOW
CENTERED OVER ME. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THIS CYCLONIC FLOW, INCLUDE ONE THAT MOVES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE LATE EVENING.
FARTHER WEST, AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NV. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET IS FORECAST SOUTH OF THIS LOW, STRETCHING ACROSS THE
BAJA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND FL PENINSULA
A NONDESCRIPT SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE, WITH ONLY MODEST LEE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE DEEPEST AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ME. EVEN SO, A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WITHIN THIS
BROADER REGION, A FEW AREAS APPEARS TO HIGHER A RELATIVELY GREATER
SEVERE RISK INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, COASTAL CAROLINAS,
AND THE EAST COAST OF FL. IN EACH OF THESE AREAS, A MODEST INCREASE
IN DEEP-LAYER FLOW MAY RESULT IN STRONGER SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. A PREDOMINANTLY MULTICELLULAR MODE IS
ANTICIPATED IN EACH OF THESE AREA AS WELL, BUT LOOSELY ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SPREADING EASTWARD MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THROUGH THE
DAY. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TX TRANS PECOS WHERE
BUOYANCY WILL BE GREATEST.
..LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
A RIBBON OF GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED FROM THE LOWER
MO VALLEY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS. HERE, INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
SEPARATING THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE ONE OVER
THE PLAINS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST WITHIN
THIS ENVIRONMENT AFTER THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. SHEAR WILL BE
MODEST, BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND
ISOLATED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
...NORTHERN CA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE CA UPPER LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND LOW SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MODEST, BUT INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BOOST BUOYANCY, HELPING SUPPORT
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH CLOUD BASES ATOP A DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS, WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES, A FEW ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
..MOSIER.. 06/06/2023
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