875   
ACUS02 KWNS 280610  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 280609  
  
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0109 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025  
  
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF  
EASTERN OHIO INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER  
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT  
PLAINS. ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT-SEVERE POTENTIAL, MAINLY FROM HAIL, IS  
APPARENT ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN  
MIDWEST TO LOWER GREAT LAKES.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
A CONSOLIDATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT  
LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA ON TUESDAY. A SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGH OVER  
THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MEXICO SHOULD DRIFT EAST. PRIMARY SURFACE  
CYCLONE OVER NORTHEAST ON SHOULD QUICKLY PROGRESS TOWARDS THE  
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL TO LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAKER  
SURFACE LOW SHOULD REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE TX TRANS-PECOS.   
   
..EASTERN OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES  
  
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO  
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE  
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY, STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS  
EASTERN OHIO INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED  
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT INTERFACE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL  
THREAT WITH SUPERCELL MODES BEFORE A TENDENCY TO CLUSTER AND GROW  
UPSCALE. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED  
TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH BOWING  
LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS THROUGH TIME.   
   
..TX/OK  
  
A SECONDARY WEAKER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS  
NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE AND A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
THIS REGION WILL BE THE FOCUS OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BY THE  
AFTERNOON, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WIND,  
AND A TORNADO. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR HAIL MAY BE NEEDED IN FURTHER  
OUTLOOK UPDATES, GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUPERCELLULAR  
MODES, BUT UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE WARRANTS RE-EVALUATION AS  
MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.  
  
..THORNTON/BENTLEY.. 04/28/2025  
  
  
 
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