594
ACUS02 KWNS 141722
SWODY2
SPC AC 141720
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
..SYNOPSIS
A PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY. AN EMBEDDED WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST) WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TOMORROW, REACHING THE MID-MS
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE EVENING. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL PROMOTE MODEST
DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN OK/KS THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF A SEASONALLY MOIST AIR MASS TO THE
EAST OF A DRYLINE AND AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG
THESE BOUNDARIES BY LATE AFTERNOON, LIKELY LASTING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY/MIDWEST.
..LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL NE ALONG THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WHERE WARM CONDITIONS
ON THE FRINGE OF RETURNING MOISTURE SHOULD YIELD WEAKLY CAPPED
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL FAVOR HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION,
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, WEAK LOW-LEVEL
STORM-RELATIVE WINDS WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS MAY PROMOTE
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY QUICK
UPSCALE GROWTH. WHILE DISCRETE MODES CAN BE MAINTAINED, STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG ZONAL SPEED SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL.
REGARDLESS, OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
PLACEMENT OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AS WELL AS THE ZONE OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND DOWNSTREAM STORM PROPAGATION. BASED ON THESE TRENDS,
15% HAIL AND WIND PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD.
ADDITIONALLY, 5% HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES WERE EXPANDED EASTWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST WHERE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR AND
ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
PERSISTENT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR STEEP (8-9
C/KM) LAPSE RATE ADVECTION EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS TO THE WEST OF THE
DRYLINE, STRONG DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
SHOULD YIELD DEEPLY-MIXED, AND NEARLY UNINHIBITED, PROFILES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY VALUES WILL BE MODEST, HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION OVER A VERY DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT
STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS. RECENT HREF/REFS SOLUTIONS HINT
THAT SEVERE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH-BASED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
AS FAR WEST AS WEST AS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES, THOUGH CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IS NOTED AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, A WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF THE 5% WIND/MARGINAL CONTOUR WAS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL.
TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE, STRONG CAPPING AT THE BASE OF THE EML
WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER, A FEW RECENT CAM
SOLUTIONS HINT THAT ASCENT ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 30 KNOT
MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZATION OF ANY
DEEP CONVECTION THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.
..MOORE.. 05/14/2026
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