196  
ACUS02 KWNS 210555  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 210553  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1253 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2022  
 
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL  
LOUISIANA...SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE  
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT  
MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND  
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.  
   
..NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
 
 
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON  
SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AT THE  
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE  
NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WILL  
RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
FORECAST TO FIRST DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE  
MOIST AIRMASS IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD FROM  
EASTERN NEW YORK INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE  
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 21Z FROM  
CENTRAL MAINE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE MLCAPE  
PEAKING IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO  
BE IN 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR, WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE  
RATES PEAKING NEAR 8.0 C/KM. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELLS  
WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL  
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HEAT UP THE MOST. THE SEVERE THREAT  
SHOULD BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE FRONT, WITH THE THREAT MOVING FROM  
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY  
EVENING.  
 
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE  
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH  
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK, MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG  
RANGE AND 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE  
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER  
UPDRAFTS AS WELL.  
   
..LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
 
 
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE SOUTHERN U.S. ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL  
ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL  
GULF COAST STATES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE 70S  
F, SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON FROM LOUISIANA  
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA. THIS  
COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A  
MARGINAL WIND-DAMAGE THREAT, WITH STORMS THAT FORM ALONG AND NEAR  
THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
..BROYLES.. 05/21/2022  
 

 
 
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