722
ACUS02 KWNS 281729
SWODY2
SPC AC 281727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY ON SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, BUT A COUPLE OF SEVERE
GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR.
..SYNOPSIS
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER, TWO LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE, AN INITIAL SURFACE CYCLONE IN WESTERN KANSAS WILL EVOLVE
INTO TWO DISTINCT LOWS AS THE TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECT IN
SUCCESSION. ONE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSOURI/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WHILE THE OTHER WILL SHIFT THROUGH
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEFORE WEAKENING BY SUNDAY MORNING.
..EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT DURING THE
DAY. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IS HIGHEST IN THESE AREAS.
FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH, SURFACE
LOW/DRYLINE, AND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED STORMS INITIALLY FROM NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SUPERCELLS. NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS, SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES HAVE POTENTIAL TO LAST LONGER INTO THE EVENING GIVEN THE
MORE ORTHOGONAL SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE DRYLINE. FROM THE
FLINT HILLS INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS, SUPERCELLS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST
FOR A SHORT PERIOD. VERY-LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL,
BUT WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY WITH TIME AS STORMS WILL TEND TO CONGEAL
ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN EASTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE RATHER WELL-MIXED AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EVENING, SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS
SEEMS PROBABLE. LARGE TO VERY-LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
ISOLATED SEVERE/DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY AREA OF GREATER TORNADO RISK, CONDITIONAL ON
SUPERCELL STORM MODE, WILL LIKELY BE FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLY
CURVED/ENLARGED. THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW FAR EAST STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MISSOURI. THE CURRENT SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED AS IS, BUT MODEL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..CENTRAL/WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
IN OKLAHOMA, CAPPING FROM AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH 850-700 MB
WINDS GENERALLY VEERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE, IT BECOMES
RATHER UNCERTAIN IF CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO INITIATE GIVEN
PARCELS SHORT RESIDENCE TIME IN THE NARROW ZONE OF ASCENT.
FURTHERMORE, MID-LEVEL ASCENT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WEAK SIGNAL FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT AS A
RESULT. SHOULD A STORM OR TWO MANAGE TO DEVELOP, THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE/VERY-LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WINDS, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
FARTHER SOUTH INTO TEXAS, A SIMILARLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST.
STRONGER HEATING MAY LEAD TO A FEW CONVECTION INITIATION ATTEMPTS
ALONG THE DRYLINE (A SCENARIO HINTED AT BY THE ECMWF/GFS AS WELL AS
SOME CAMS). ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST IN FAR SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS NEAR A TRIPLE POINT FEATURE ALONG WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET CORE. ISOLATED LARGE TO VERY-LARGE HAIL
AND SEVERE GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY,
SHOULD IT DEVELOP.
..LOWER MISSOURI INTO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE A SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN IN THE
KANSAS CITY VICINITY AND TRACK ROUGHLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING. A FEW, LIKELY ELEVATED, STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT. AN ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUST
IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE SPATIALLY LIMITED AND CONDITIONAL ON
A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER DEVELOPING. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE THREAT ARE THE MOST UNCERTAIN FOR THESE REGION.
..WENDT.. 03/28/2025
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