094
ACUS02 KWNS 221732
SWODY2
SPC AC 221730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2025
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST
TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND ARKANSAS, WHERE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON.
..EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
A POSITIVELY TILTED LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH, A CONVECTIVELY
AUGMENTED MIDLEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING 50 KT JET WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS KS AND NORTHERN OK DURING THE DAY. A RELATED MCS
WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS, NORTHERN OK, AND
SOUTHWEST MO ON TUESDAY MORNING -- AT THE NOSE OF A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET. INSTANCES OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FLANK WHERE BUOYANCY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.
IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS, A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN OK, WHILE A SOUTHWARD-EXTENDING COLD FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OK. DESPITE EARLY-DAY
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OK, DIURNAL HEATING
AMID LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS SHOULD ERODE INHIBITION AND SUPPORT WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH ALONG/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. STRONG SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY
AND AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR ORIENTED OBLIQUE TO THE FRONT
SHOULD INITIALLY FAVOR A FEW SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM EASTERN
OK INTO AR. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WIND
GUSTS, AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES -- GIVEN CLOCKWISE CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS (UPWARDS OF 200 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH).
STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHER WIND/TORNADO PROBABILITIES WERE
CONSIDERED OVER EASTERN OK INTO AR GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
THOUGH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EARLY-DAY CONVECTION AND
IMPLICATIONS ON STORM MODE LIMIT FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
..CENTRAL TEXAS
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN TEXAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ERODING INHIBITION BY MID-AFTERNOON. SHEAR
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK, BUT WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DRIFTS SOUTH. THE MOST
FAVORABLE ZONE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE TRIPLE POINT
WHERE THE COLD FRONT INTERSECTS A DRYLINE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..MID-ATLANTIC
DOWNSTREAM OF A BROAD MIDLEVEL TROUGH, WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EVOLVING IN A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AROUND 20-30 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY
PROMOTE A COUPLE LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WITH A RISK OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING GUSTS.
..WEINMAN.. 09/22/2025
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