985
ACUS02 KWNS 220602
SWODY2
SPC AC 220600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2025
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST KANSAS...
..SUMMARY
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH MORE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.
..SYNOPSIS
A RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
ON FRIDAY. MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RESULT IN
LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS.
..NORTHEAST COLORADO, SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, AND NORTHWEST KANSAS
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BACK THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CONSISTENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE A DRYLINE ACROSS
NORTHEAST KANSAS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE TO THE MID-LEVELS
WITHIN THE STRONGLY MIXED ZONE ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS, BUT AS THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND STRENGTHENS, INCREASED ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE EVENING. STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..WEST TEXAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH A VERY
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING WITH SOME
ORGANIZATION. STORM MODE IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING GREATER
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. MODEST SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AMID MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WHICH MAY SUPPORT
RATHER QUICK CLUSTERING AND A MORE MULTICELL MODE. A ZONE FROM NEAR
MIDLAND TO WICHITA FALLS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A SLIGHT RISK OF STORM
MODE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUST
THREAT.
..EASTERN KANSAS, OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AND STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY MAY
NOT BE THAT GREAT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, MORE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA, SOUTHWEST MISSOURI, AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. LARGE HAIL MAY
BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS OVERNIGHT ELEVATED ACTIVITY.
..EASTERN FLORIDA
RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
FLORIDA TODAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE SOUTH OF A
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MODEST
MID-LEVEL FLOW (25 TO 30 KNOTS) WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SOME MULTICELL STORM ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
..BENTLEY.. 05/22/2025
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