796  
ACUS02 KWNS 191730  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 191729  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1229 PM CDT MON APR 19 2021  
 
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE TOMORROW/TUESDAY  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. A  
COUPLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS,  
THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
BROAD MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. TOMORROW, AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS  
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (12Z TUESDAY)  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH STORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WITH  
DIURNAL HEATING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY  
SEVERE.  
 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS, A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH WILL  
PROGRESS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A LIGHTNING FLASH OR TWO MAY ALSO  
ACCOMPANY RELATIVELY SHALLOWER CONVECTION IN THIS REGION, SUPPORTED  
BY SFC-600 MB BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN  
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER, COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO  
WARRANT THUNDER PROBABILITIES. FARTHER WEST, A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE  
PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WEST COAST. A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS  
MAY OCCUR DURING THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IN TANDEM WITH  
THE INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE LOW.  
   
..CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
 
 
A WEAK, EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL OVERSPREAD THE PRE-FRONTAL  
AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA, ENCOURAGING THE DEVELOPMENT  
OF MODEST 850 MB FLOW DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.  
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY IN AN  
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY UP TO 1500 J/KG MLCAPE, DRIVEN  
PRIMARILY BY UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS AND 6.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE  
RATES. MODEST LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE, AND ASSOCIATED 150  
M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH, MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MULTICELLULAR OR TRANSIENT  
SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT. DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF  
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAILSTONES MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.  
GIVEN THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH  
A LONGER-LIVED TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE.  
 
..SQUITIERI/SMITH.. 04/19/2021  
 

 
 
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