281  
ACUS02 KWNS 070635  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 070634  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1234 AM CST SAT DEC 07 2019  
 
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z  
   
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AT THE  
SAME TIME, A LOW-AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL  
EJECT QUICKLY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE  
ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS CA.  
AS A RESULT OF THIS EVOLUTION, THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED  
TO UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING AND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING UPPER  
TROUGHING WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD  
THROUGH SOUTHERN CA.  
 
SURFACE PATTERN EARLY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE LEE TROUGHING  
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST.  
CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH THE  
RESULTING LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OK OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO  
MONDAY MORNING. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS ANTICIPATED FROM THE TX  
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE ARKLATEX, ALTHOUGH WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT  
SHOULD PRECLUDE DEEP CONVECTION.  
 
THREE DIFFERENT REGIONS HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST IS FROM CENTRAL CA INTO THE GREAT BASIN  
WHERE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT MODEST INSTABILITY  
AMIDST PERSISTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THIS  
AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER 10%, WHICH MERITS DELINEATION OF A  
GENERAL THUNDER AREAS.  
 
THE SECOND AREA IS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WHERE GRADUALLY  
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY  
RESULT IN A FEW UPDRAFTS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING. HOWEVER,  
COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10%.  
 
THE LAST AREA IS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WHERE RETURNING LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE WILL HELP SUPPORT MODEST INSTABILITY. LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE  
WITHIN THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS BUT UPDRAFTS  
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR CHARGE SEPARATION  
AND LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.  
   
..MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD
 
 
TORNADO: <2% - NONE  
WIND: <5% - NONE  
HAIL: <5% - NONE  
 
..MOSIER.. 12/07/2019  
 

 
 
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