380
ACUS03 KWNS 290815
SWODY3
SPC AC 290814
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2023
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST ON TUESDAY.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA
SHOULD DEVELOP VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN CONFINED ALONG/SOUTH OF A FRONT WHICH SHOULD EXTEND FROM DEEP
SOUTH TX ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
AND INTO PARTS OF GA/SC. BOTH INSTABILITY AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EXISTS, WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS. STILL, THERE SHOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING FLASHES WITH CLEARLY ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM
PARTS OF TX INTO THE ARKLATEX VICINITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED
BY WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ATOP THE STABLE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER, ALONG
WITH MODESTLY STEEPENED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN QUITE WEAK, GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THESE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.
..GLEASON.. 01/29/2023
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