882
ACUS03 KWNS 291952
SWODY3
SPC AC 291951
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND TEXAS RIO GRANDE VICINITY...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY FROM PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
TEXAS.
..MID-ATLANTIC STATES
THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT AND PRECEDING MOIST AIR MASS WILL LIKELY HAVE
PUSHED INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WEAK
POST-FRONTAL BUOYANCY SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS LAPSE RATES
DIURNALLY STEEPEN COINCIDENT WITH A MODESTLY MOIST AIR MASS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONG LOW-TOPPED STORMS BY AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY ALONG/SOUTH OF A SECONDARY WIND SHIFT/WEAK FRONT. IT
APPEARS THAT SOME POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL
EXIST, MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.
..TEXAS RIO GRANDE VALLEY
NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST FROM SOUTH TEXAS NORTHWESTWARD ALONG AND NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
..SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SPECIFICS ARE NOT HIGH AT THE DAY 3
TIME FRAME, SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.
SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE, POTENTIALLY INCLUDING MCS DEVELOPMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST
PROBABLE ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA, AND MODERATE BUOYANCY
AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO SOME SEVERE STORMS
IN THIS SCENARIO.
..GUYER.. 05/29/2025
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