540
ACUS03 KWNS 090730
SWODY3
SPC AC 090729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT FRI JUN 09 2023
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE...PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...
..SUMMARY
AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO MID SOUTH VICINITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIAL STORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL, BEFORE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BECOME THE MORE PROMINENT POTENTIAL
SEVERE HAZARD.
..SYNOPSIS
BY SUNDAY, THE PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW WILL INCLUDE A SERIES OF SLOW
MOVING/QUASI-STATIONARY MID-LEVEL LOWS, IN VARIOUS STATES OF
EVOLUTION. THE MOST PROMINENT CIRCULATION APPEARS LIKELY TO STALL
TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP
OCCLUDING OFFSHORE SURFACE CYCLONE. ANOTHER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION, TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
A LINGERING, BUT LESS PROMINENT, MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE
MONTANA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. A THIRD LOW IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO
BROADEN AND WEAKEN WHILE MIGRATING INLAND OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
..SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO OHIO VALLEY
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS WITHIN/AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUT,
BUT THE INTERIOR U.S. CIRCULATION LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOTHER INTRUSION OF SEASONABLY MILD AND DRY AIR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND AT LEAST MODEST SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, NEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL LOW AND THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGING, A SEASONABLY
MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER MAY BECOME CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO LARGE
CAPE BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING OF WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER, IT APPEARS THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF ONE OR TWO CONSOLIDATING
AND ORGANIZING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS POSING INCREASING RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
..PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT NEW MEXICO
BENEATH STRENGTHENING, DIFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW,
MOISTENING EASTERLY UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY BECOME AT LEAST
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,
INCLUDING A COUPLE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
..KERR.. 06/09/2023
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