702  
ACUS03 KWNS 101928  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 101927  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0227 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
 
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z  
   
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT  
LAKES REGION TUESDAY. WHILE THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER STILL  
APPEARS LOW, LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS AND HAIL MIGHT STILL BE POSSIBLE.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
AN INITIALLY PROMINENT MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BECOME SUPPRESSED  
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC  
DURING THIS PERIOD, AS A CONSOLIDATING SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS NEAR  
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AS DOWNSTREAM FLOW TRENDS MORE ZONAL, IT  
APPEARS THAT A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS WILL CONSOLIDATE  
INTO A LARGER-SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO  
QUEBEC BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS EVOLUTION MAY INCLUDE A LEAD  
PERTURBATION CONTINUING TO DIG ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND  
ADJACENT GREAT LAKES REGION, BEFORE PIVOTING EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE  
LAKE HURON/GEORGIAN BAY VICINITY, IN ADVANCE OF A TRAILING IMPULSE  
DIGGING SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. MORE UNCERTAIN, DUE TO GREATER MODEL  
SPREAD, THE LEAD SHORT WAVE MAY BE PRECEDED ACROSS THE LOWER  
MICHIGAN VICINITY BY AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED, CONVECTIVELY GENERATED  
PERTURBATION EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.  
 
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS REGIME IS FORECAST TO INCLUDE AN INITIAL  
INTRUSION OF SOMEWHAT COOLER/DRIER AIR, WHICH MAY MAINTAIN IDENTITY  
WHILE ADVANCING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, MIDWEST AND LOWER  
MISSOURI VALLEY, BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A MORE SUBSTANTIVE  
REINFORCING COOL INTRUSION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY  
NIGHT. BOTH FRONTS WILL BE PRECEDED BY THE INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE  
REMNANTS OF A SLOW MOVING OR STALLED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING  
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AND  
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE LEAD FRONT  
ADVANCING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN BY LATE TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR.  
 
BARRING COMPLICATIONS FROM LINGERING CONVECTIVE CLOUD  
COVER/PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE POSSIBLE MCV EMERGING FROM  
THE GREAT PLAINS, IT MIGHT NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE  
ENVIRONMENT IN A CORRIDOR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD BECOME  
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE  
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE MCV,  
WHICH REMAINS UNCLEAR DUE TO MODEL SPREAD, WIND FIELDS MAY  
STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR ORGANIZED  
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN, WHERE  
STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL DESTABILIZATION APPEARS MOST PROBABLE.  
 
IF/WHEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED, IT IS POSSIBLE  
THAT SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN EXCESS OF 5 PERCENT, OR HIGHER, WILL BE  
NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR  
THIS PERIOD.  
 
..KERR.. 08/10/2025  
 

 
 
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