747
ACUS03 KWNS 070755
SWODY3
SPC AC 070754
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 AM CST SAT DEC 07 2019
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH
SOUTHERN CA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS IT DOES, STRONG
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ALOFT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WHILE INTENSIFYING. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE HUDSON BAY INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW (I.E. 90-100 KT AT 500 MB) IN
PLACE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE IL/IA BORDER AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM THIS LOW INTO NORTHEAST OK. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, LIKELY EXTENDING FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TX COAST EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, BEGINNING
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH
OF THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO WEAK AND/OR SHALLOW TO
PRODUCE LIGHTNING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FROM SOUTHEAST TX THROUGH
THE MID-SOUTH, WHERE OCCASIONAL UPDRAFTS MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. ROBUST VERTICAL SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED
BUT WEAK INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED, WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY
STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE THRESHOLDS.
..MOSIER.. 12/07/2019
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