088  
ACUS03 KWNS 160623  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 160622  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1222 AM CST WED JAN 16 2019  
 
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT  
ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR  
CORNERS STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH 50-65 KT MIDLEVEL  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREADING MUCH OF TEXAS.  
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS  
TEXAS AS A COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. TO  
THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AID IN THE  
NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS, RESULTING IN  
DESTABILIZATION AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
TO THE WEST, COLD AIR ALOFT EARLY IN THE DAY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED  
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS PARTS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO, BUT STORM  
ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE SEVERE.  
   
..CENTRAL/NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
 
 
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN TEXAS  
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH INITIAL RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK  
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON. MORE  
SUBSTANTIAL LIFT WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AS WARM ADVECTION  
INCREASES, AND OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS  
INDICATE LITTLE SURFACE BASED CAPE DUE TO A COOL BOUNDARY LAYER  
INITIALLY, BUT COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS WELL AS LENGTHENING  
HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR HAIL. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS  
PRODUCING HAIL IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND PERHAPS ACROSS  
THE RED RIVER INTO OKLAHOMA AND/OR ARKLATEX. WHILE SURFACE BASED  
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE INTO SATURDAY MORNING, CHANCES OF WIND  
DAMAGE APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME.  
 
..JEWELL.. 01/16/2019  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SPC Page Main Text Page