889
ACUS03 KWNS 230701
SWODY3
SPC AC 230700
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITY IS CURRENTLY LESS THAN 5%.
..SYNOPSIS
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY DURING THE PERIOD AS
PHASED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER MS VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD BUILD
WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TOWARDS THE PLAINS.
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PHASED SHORTWAVES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE JET MAXIMUM EXTENDING
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS TN, THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND THE CAROLINAS WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
..LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
A MODESTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, WITH THE BEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT, BUT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
AND LIMITED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AMIDST THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY KEEP COVERAGE ISOLATED. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGER ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY, LEADING TO A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. SEVERE PROBABILITY IS CURRENTLY LESS THAN
5%.
..MOSIER.. 03/23/2019
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