566  
ACUS03 KWNS 270726  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 270725  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0225 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2022  
 
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE  
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL  
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY, IN ASSOCIATION WITH  
HURRICANE IAN.  
   
..FLORIDA
 
 
HURRICANE IAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY, THOUGH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD  
REMAINS REGARDING IAN'S TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED (SEE NHC ADVISORIES  
AND FORECASTS FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING IAN). SOME REDUCTION IN  
THE TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE COMPARED TO D2/WEDNESDAY, WITH IAN  
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL, AND A SUBSTANTIAL MIDLEVEL DRY  
SLOT FORECAST TO SHUNT OUTER RAIN BANDS GENERALLY OFFSHORE OF THE FL  
ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH WILL LIKELY REMAIN  
FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED CELL ROTATION, PRIMARILY EAST AND NORTHEAST  
OF IAN'S TRACK, AND NEAR/SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE  
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA. A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN  
INCLUDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FL PENINSULA,  
WHERE THE GREATEST RISK OF A COUPLE TORNADOES IS CURRENTLY  
ANTICIPATED.  
   
..NORTHERN ROCKIES
 
 
A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE  
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT  
AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM CENTRAL ID INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MT AND  
NORTHERN WY. LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT  
BUOYANCY, BUT ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE  
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
..DEAN.. 09/27/2022  
 

 
 
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