083  
ACUS03 KWNS 310731  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 310730  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0230 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025  
 
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z  
   
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN  
U.S. AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE WEST OF THE ROCKIES. GUIDANCE  
CONSENSUS DEPICTS A PRONOUNCED, POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH  
RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING WHILE QUICKLY TRANSLATING SOUTHEASTWARD, PIVOTING  
AROUND THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT, A COLD FRONT  
WILL BEGIN SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY.  
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO  
MEANDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS  
VALLEY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE  
COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WHERE MODEST TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE  
RATES AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS.  
SIMILARLY, A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT  
BE RULED OUT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY, WHERE A PASSING MID-LEVEL  
PERTURBATION MAY LOCALLY AUGMENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT  
MULTICELLULAR STRUCTURES. NONETHELESS, THE ANTICIPATED COVERAGE OF  
SEVERE WIND OR HAIL APPEARS TOO LOW FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE  
PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK.  
 
..SQUITIERI.. 08/31/2025  
 

 
 
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