254
ACUS03 KWNS 281820
SWODY3
SPC AC 281819
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
..NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE U.S. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT APPEAR LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
..DISCUSSION
MODELS INDICATE THAT LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL GENERALLY BE
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST THROUGH ROCKIES, WITH SHORT
WAVE RIDGING ALSO BUILDING ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST, IN THE
WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING INLAND ACROSS THE CANADIAN
AND ADJACENT NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING AN
ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WITH PERHAPS AN UPSTREAM WARM FRONTAL BAND ALSO
APPROACHING COASTAL WASHINGTON BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL NOT
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DOWNSTREAM, SEVERAL SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS, INCLUDING ONE VIGOROUS
IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE HUDSON BAY VICINITY, ARE FORECAST TO
CONSOLIDATE INTO AMPLIFYING, POSITIVELY TILTED LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF BASIN THROUGH
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS
NOTABLE SPREAD CONCERNING ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS, BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THIS WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND
ADJACENT SOUTHEAST, BEFORE UNDERGOING NOTABLE STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE
OF THE SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A STRENGTHENING FRONTAL ZONE, A DEEPENING MOIST
BOUNDARY-LAYER MAY BECOME CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY AIR IN
MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
..KERR.. 01/28/2026
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