743
ACUS03 KWNS 260713
SWODY3
SPC AC 260712
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST....
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST.
..SYNOPSIS
AS MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SUNDAY,
LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT FROM NORTHERN KANSAS TO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK DURING THE
DAY WITH ONLY AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW EMERGING OVER
THE PLAINS. THEREFORE, STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOOSELY
ORGANIZED WITH MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE GFS, ECMWF, AND NAM ALL SHOW SOME VERSION OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/AMPLITUDE. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT
IN STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND A LOW-LEVEL JET RESPONSE WHICH
SHOULD AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET. THE MOST
LIKELY PERIOD FOR A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE IN THIS
TIME PERIOD, LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA WHEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HIGHER
PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN THIS REGION IN LATER OUTLOOKS
AS TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES
MORE CLEAR.
..BENTLEY.. 07/26/2024
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