998  
ACUS03 KWNS 110730  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 110729  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0229 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
 
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE  
MID-ATLANTIC NORTH INTO WESTERN AND UPSTATE NEW YORK AS WELL AS  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN  
US FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NORTHWARD INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK.  
ADDITIONAL STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
   
.. SYNOPSIS
 
 
BROADLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST UNITED  
STATES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY  
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN US. FARTHER SOUTHWEST, ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MAKE  
LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES IN  
RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS  
LATE IN THE PERIOD.  
   
.. MID-ATLANTIC NORTHWARD INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK
 
 
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING  
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN  
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60FS TO LOW 70FS  
WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO RESULT IN MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE  
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. DESPITE THE BETTER EFFECTIVE-LAYER  
SHEAR REMAINING NORTH OF THE US, THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND THE  
VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE WITH THE  
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.  
   
.. SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
 
 
MULTIPLE MCVS FROM THE PRECEDING DAYS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE  
LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A VERY MOIST  
AIRMASS -- PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN PLACES  
-- AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY  
CAPPED AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE  
TOTALITY OF THE DELINEATED AREA, IT IS LIKELY THAT POCKETS OF MORE  
CONCENTRATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF  
THE AFOREMENTIONED MCVS. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL -- LIKELY DAMAGING  
WIND GUSTS -- WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.  
 
..MARSH.. 07/11/2025  
 

 
 
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