238
ACUS03 KWNS 080721
SWODY3
SPC AC 080720
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT WED APR 08 2020
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST TX AND VICINITY...
..SUMMARY
SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND VICINITY.
..SYNOPSIS
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
EJECTING EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WILL BE LIMITED AS A SURFACE RIDGE
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MS/TN VALLEYS. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY AFTERNOON.
..WEST TX AND VICINITY
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF WEST TX AND
EASTERN NM FRIDAY AFTERNOON, TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE
TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRYLINE, THOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN. GIVEN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN, AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DEVELOPING
DRYLINE, WITH A CONDITIONAL RISK OF A SUPERCELL OR TWO GIVEN
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE, THEN AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WILL BE CONSIDERED
IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. EVEN IF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DOES NOT
DEVELOP, ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY POSE SOME HAIL RISK FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION.
..DEAN/DIAL.. 04/08/2020
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