560  
ACUS03 KWNS 281932  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 281931  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0231 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025  
 
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z  
 
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE  
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
A WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE-WEATHER EPISODE IS FORECAST ACROSS  
AN AREA CENTERED ON THE OHIO/MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI/LOWER  
MISSOURI/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,  
AND STRONG TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A SOMEWHAT BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH NEBULOUS STRUCTURE WILL  
MOVE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. AN EMBEDDED  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH. A SURFACE  
LOW WILL MOVE FROM IOWA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT  
WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WHILE  
DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT IN EAST TEXAS.  
   
..UPPER MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY
 
 
MODELS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO THE SURFACE  
LOW/LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. SOME SEVERE RISK MAY ACCOMPANY THESE  
STORMS. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT  
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO.  
WIND FIELDS WILL STILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS,  
BUT THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THESE THREATS WILL DEPEND ON THE DEGREE  
OF SURFACE HEATING THAT OCCURS.  
 
MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY VICINITY ITSELF APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT BE  
IMPACTED DIRECTLY BY EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE A ZONE  
WHERE A FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF SURFACE HEATING AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL  
WIND FIELDS WILL EXIST. THOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE INITIATING  
BOUNDARY, EFFECTIVE SHEAR VECTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ORTHOGONAL TO  
IT. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS AND  
STRONG TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS.  
   
..MID-SOUTH
 
 
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT, DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED  
TO RISE TO THE MID TO POTENTIALLY THE UPPER 60S (THE NAM BEING  
TYPICALLY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD). GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN  
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER, THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO  
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE  
HEATING AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD EVENTUALLY ERODE THE  
CAP AND ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME  
INDICATION THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/CONFLUENCE ZONE MAY SET UP.  
SHOULD THIS OCCUR, THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS WOULD INCREASE  
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE CONCERNING TORNADO RISK.  
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER IN THESE AREAS  
GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT FROM THE SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER,  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL BE  
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT, PARTICULARLY BEYOND EARLY EVENING. EVEN  
WITHOUT PRE-FRONTAL DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT, THE GREATER SURFACE  
HEATING EXPECTED IN THIS REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE  
STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, WIDESPREAD  
DAMAGING WINDS, AND QLCS TORNADOES.  
   
..EAST TEXAS/SABINE VALLEY
 
 
A DRYLINE FEATURE WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. STORMS IN  
THIS AREA WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY BE DISCRETE. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE  
RATES AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE SUPERCELLS  
CAPABLE OF LARGE/VERY-LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS SEVERE GUSTS AND  
TORNADOES. LATER IN THE PERIOD, THE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND  
LEAD TO UPSCALE GROWTH OF WHAT ACTIVITY IS ONGOING AT THAT TIME.  
 
..WENDT.. 03/28/2025  
 

 
 
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