540  
ACUS03 KWNS 090730  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 090729  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0229 AM CDT FRI JUN 09 2023  
 
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND  
TENNESSEE...PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO MID SOUTH VICINITY SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIAL STORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR SEVERE  
HAIL, BEFORE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BECOME THE MORE PROMINENT POTENTIAL  
SEVERE HAZARD.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
BY SUNDAY, THE PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW WILL INCLUDE A SERIES OF SLOW  
MOVING/QUASI-STATIONARY MID-LEVEL LOWS, IN VARIOUS STATES OF  
EVOLUTION. THE MOST PROMINENT CIRCULATION APPEARS LIKELY TO STALL  
TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP  
OCCLUDING OFFSHORE SURFACE CYCLONE. ANOTHER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN  
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION, TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF  
A LINGERING, BUT LESS PROMINENT, MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE  
MONTANA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. A THIRD LOW IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO  
BROADEN AND WEAKEN WHILE MIGRATING INLAND OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA  
COAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.  
   
..SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO OHIO VALLEY
 
 
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS WITHIN/AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUT,  
BUT THE INTERIOR U.S. CIRCULATION LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY  
ANOTHER INTRUSION OF SEASONABLY MILD AND DRY AIR THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY, AND AT LEAST MODEST SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE OHIO  
VALLEY, BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, NEAR THE  
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL LOW AND THE  
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGING, A SEASONABLY  
MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER MAY BECOME CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO LARGE  
CAPE BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY LATE SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING OF WESTERLY  
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER, IT APPEARS THAT THE  
ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF ONE OR TWO CONSOLIDATING  
AND ORGANIZING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS POSING INCREASING RISK FOR  
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING.  
   
..PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT NEW MEXICO
 
 
BENEATH STRENGTHENING, DIFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW,  
MOISTENING EASTERLY UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY BECOME AT LEAST  
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,  
INCLUDING A COUPLE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING.  
 
..KERR.. 06/09/2023  
 

 
 
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