566
ACUS03 KWNS 270726
SWODY3
SPC AC 270725
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2022
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
..SUMMARY
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY, IN ASSOCIATION WITH
HURRICANE IAN.
..FLORIDA
HURRICANE IAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY, THOUGH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
REMAINS REGARDING IAN'S TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED (SEE NHC ADVISORIES
AND FORECASTS FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING IAN). SOME REDUCTION IN
THE TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE COMPARED TO D2/WEDNESDAY, WITH IAN
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL, AND A SUBSTANTIAL MIDLEVEL DRY
SLOT FORECAST TO SHUNT OUTER RAIN BANDS GENERALLY OFFSHORE OF THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH WILL LIKELY REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED CELL ROTATION, PRIMARILY EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF IAN'S TRACK, AND NEAR/SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA. A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN
INCLUDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FL PENINSULA,
WHERE THE GREATEST RISK OF A COUPLE TORNADOES IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
..NORTHERN ROCKIES
A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM CENTRAL ID INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MT AND
NORTHERN WY. LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT
BUOYANCY, BUT ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..DEAN.. 09/27/2022
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