889  
ACUS03 KWNS 230701  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 230700  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0200 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z  
   
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
PROBABILITY IS CURRENTLY LESS THAN 5%.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY DURING THE PERIOD AS  
PHASED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND  
LOWER MS VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD BUILD  
WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TOWARDS THE PLAINS.  
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PHASED SHORTWAVES WILL  
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE JET MAXIMUM EXTENDING  
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS TN, THE  
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND THE CAROLINAS WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD  
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.  
   
..LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
 
 
A MODESTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE  
REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, WITH THE BEST LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT, BUT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION  
AND LIMITED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AMIDST THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL  
LIKELY KEEP COVERAGE ISOLATED. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE  
STRONGER ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY, LEADING TO A GREATER POTENTIAL  
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. SEVERE PROBABILITY IS CURRENTLY LESS THAN  
5%.  
 
..MOSIER.. 03/23/2019  
 

 
 
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