738  
ACUS03 KWNS 210723  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 210722  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0222 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2022  
 
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
TEXAS...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF  
CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS  
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF  
NORTH AND EAST TEXAS.  
   
..TEXAS
 
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN  
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH IS  
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE  
TROUGH, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SURFACE  
DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S F. IN RESPONSE, MODERATE  
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOIST SECTOR BY  
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS  
A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS  
EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE  
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND NORTH TEXAS.  
 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MONDAY AFTERNOON, NEAR THE AXIS OF STRONGEST  
INSTABILITY, HAVE MLCAPE PEAKING IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. 0-6  
KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 30 KNOTS IN NORTH TEXAS TO  
AROUND 40 KNOTS IN THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP  
LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED  
SEVERE THREAT. WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE GREATEST OF THE THREATS IF  
AN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENT CAN DEVELOP. IF CELLS REMAIN MORE  
DISCRETE, THEN SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME,  
THE MODELS SHOW THE BEST SEVERE-WEATHER PARAMETERS OVER SOUTHWEST  
AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WHERE THERE COULD BE A SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL  
FOR WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THAN FURTHER TO THE NORTH.  
IF TOMORROW'S MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE  
STORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS ON MONDAY, THEN A SLIGHT COULD  
BE ADDED IN AN UPCOMING OUTLOOK.  
 
..BROYLES.. 05/21/2022  
 

 
 
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