238  
ACUS03 KWNS 080721  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 080720  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0220 AM CDT WED APR 08 2020  
 
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF  
WEST TX AND VICINITY...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE ON FRIDAY  
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND VICINITY.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN  
EJECTING EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WILL BE LIMITED AS A SURFACE RIDGE  
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MS/TN VALLEYS. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST  
TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY AFTERNOON.  
   
..WEST TX AND VICINITY
 
 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF WEST TX AND  
EASTERN NM FRIDAY AFTERNOON, TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE  
TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRYLINE, THOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS  
REGARDING THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE  
RETURN. GIVEN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN, AT LEAST ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DEVELOPING  
DRYLINE, WITH A CONDITIONAL RISK OF A SUPERCELL OR TWO GIVEN  
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  
 
IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP  
ALONG THE DRYLINE, THEN AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WILL BE CONSIDERED  
IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. EVEN IF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DOES NOT  
DEVELOP, ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY POSE SOME HAIL RISK FRIDAY NIGHT AS  
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION.  
 
..DEAN/DIAL.. 04/08/2020  
 

 
 
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