204
ACUS03 KWNS 200821
SWODY3
SPC AC 200820
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CST MON JAN 20 2020
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING SHOULD EVOLVE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
AS BOTH NORTHERN- AND SOUTHERN-STREAM UPPER TROUGHING DEPART THE
EASTERN U.S. EARLY WEDNESDAY, ATTENTION SHIFTS WESTWARD, WHERE A
DYNAMIC/EVOLVING UPPER FLOW FIELD IS EXPECTED.
INITIALLY, TWO DISTINCT SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORT-WAVE FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. --
ONE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE SECOND CROSSING
NEW MEXICO/FAR WEST TEXAS/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. MEANWHILE, A
SECOND/STRONGER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DURING THE DAY. WITH TIME, THIS FEATURE IS
SHOULD BEGIN DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PLAINS, GRADUALLY
BECOMING PHASED WITH THE SOUTHERN-STREAM ENERGY AND EVENTUALLY
YIELDING LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW THAT WILL ENCOMPASS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
WITH COLD/STABLE AIR PREVAILING ACROSS THE COUNTRY AT LOW LEVELS,
SURFACE RESPONSE TO THE EXPANDING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOST LIKELY BE
REALIZED NEAR THE TEXAS COAST, WHERE A DEFAULT, GULF-INDUCED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL RESIDE. LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS
EAST TEXAS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD PERMIT WEAK
DESTABILIZATION ABOVE A STILL-STABLE INLAND BOUNDARY LAYER, LIKELY
SUPPORTING ELEVATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
WITH ONLY WEAK ELEVATED CAPE EXPECTED, LITTLE RISK FOR ANY MORE THAN
SMALL HAIL IS ANTICIPATED INLAND. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT THE
ONLY NON-ZERO SEVERE RISK WHICH COULD EVOLVE, WOULD LIKELY RESIDE
OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. THIS RISK WOULD
HOWEVER REQUIRE INLAND ADVECTION OF GULF AIR, WHICH REMAINS FAR FROM
CERTAIN GIVEN REASONABLE LIKELIHOOD THAT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE. EVEN WITH SOME INLAND ADVECTION OF A GULF
BOUNDARY LAYER HOWEVER, SHEAR APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN ON THE
MARGINAL END OF THE SPECTRUM, WITH RESPECT TO APPRECIABLE
SURFACE-BASED SEVERE POTENTIAL. AS SUCH, WILL REFRAIN FROM
INTRODUCING EVEN MARGINAL SEVERE-WEATHER PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.
..GOSS.. 01/20/2020
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