614
ACUS03 KWNS 221125
SWODY3
SPC AC 221124
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2025
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS
TO THE OHIO VALLEY...
CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT THUNDER LINE ORIENTATION IN THE WEST
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING.
..SOUTH TEXAS
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW (AND THUS
SHEAR) SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER NORTH, AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO BE VERY WEAK. HOWEVER, DESPITE THESE FACTORS, STRONG
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
..MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
A MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FROM NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI TO THE OHIO RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY. IF MODERATE INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE, AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER FROM DAY 2 CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALSO REMAIN WEAK. NONETHELESS, A MOIST AIRMASS (DEWPOINTS
NEAR 70) WILL BE IN PLACE AND SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH MINIMAL SURFACE HEATING. THEREFORE, A FEW STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..BENTLEY.. 09/22/2025
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