792
ACUS03 KWNS 160725
SWODY3
SPC AC 160724
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2019
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY, WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVERSPREADS
THE EASTERN STATES. A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MIGRATE THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES AND PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND MUCH OF THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING MODEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS (45-55 F) NORTHWARD FROM TX/OK TO
IA/MN. AS THE PARENT LOW OVER MANITOBA LIFTS NORTHEAST, A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS, EXTENDING FROM WESTERN WI TO
CENTRAL OK BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODEST WARM ADVECTION AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OK/KS TO EASTERN IA. A SECOND,
MORE INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD. OF NOTE, SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF TOWARD THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE, AND TRACKS THE LOW TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A
40% CHANCE OF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (REF TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK). THIS COULD
HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE.
..LEITMAN.. 10/16/2019
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