938
ACUS03 KWNS 241931
SWODY3
SPC AC 241930
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
KANSAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
MISSOURI...
..SUMMARY
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS,
BEFORE ONE OR TWO ORGANIZING CLUSTERS OF STORMS SPREAD TOWARD THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT JET MAXIMUM ARE FORECAST
TO EMERGE FROM THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST, AND BEGIN TO
IMPINGE UPON A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS ON SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY, AND THEN MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER MO VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING.
A SURFACE FRONT (WHOSE INITIAL POSITION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
EXTENSIVE FRIDAY/SATURDAY CONVECTION) WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS. A PACIFIC
FRONT/DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON, WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK SUNDAY NIGHT.
..GREAT PLAINS
A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
KS/OK/TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
BUOYANCY AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE
SIGNAL FOR DIURNAL WARM-SECTOR DEVELOPMENT REMAINS RATHER MUTED IN
MOST GUIDANCE, WITH THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE DISPLACED NORTH OF THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY.
STORM COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAY BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
MODEST IN THIS AREA, BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW, STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES, AND MODERATE BUOYANCY COULD SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT, WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. STORMS
IN THIS AREA MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS, RESULTING IN AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT SPREADING TOWARD THE LOWER/MID MO VALLEY LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT.
FARTHER SOUTH, DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN
KS, OK, AND TX REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN. IF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAN
DEVELOP AND BE SUSTAINED WITHIN THIS REGIME, THEY WOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR TORNADOES (POSSIBLY STRONG), VERY LARGE
HAIL, AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS.
A SEPARATE AREA OF NOCTURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN A WARM-ADVECTION REGIME FROM EASTERN KS INTO THE OZARK
REGION. BUOYANCY AND SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE
THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN THIS REGIME.
..LOWER MS VALLEY
NOCTURNAL STORMS FROM D2/SATURDAY MAY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY, WITH ADDITIONAL DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ALONG THE REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY. MODERATE BUOYANCY COULD
SUPPORT A LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION, WITHIN A MODEST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.
..DEAN.. 04/24/2026
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