886  
ACUS03 KWNS 281924  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 281923  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0223 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025  
 
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, CENTERED  
ON CENTRAL TEXAS TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
A SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER NM WILL ACCELERATE  
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING THE OZARKS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A WEAK  
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER WEST TX SHOULD DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT EJECTS  
TOWARDS THE LOWER MO VALLEY. A COLD TO QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ON D2  
WILL ADVANCE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS  
AND MIDWEST.  
   
..SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS  
 
AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY, CENTERED OVER  
WESTERN NORTH TX TO SOUTHWEST OK, ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE  
CONVECTIVELY MODULATED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. LOW-LEVEL WARM  
THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE  
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES EAST.  
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING OF THE EXTENSIVE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE  
PLUME DOWNSTREAM WILL LIKELY SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF THE MCS AND  
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ITS OUTFLOWS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A  
MIX OF ALL HAZARDS IS POSSIBLE, BUT DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE  
PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN PROBABLE MCS/CLUSTER MODE.  
 
IN ITS WAKE, LATE-AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT STILL SEEMS PROBABLE  
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL TX ALONG THE EASTWARD-SURGING DRYLINE. PRIMARY  
UNCERTAINTY IS WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF OUTFLOW SURGE RELATED  
TO THE MORNING MCS AND WHERE EXACTLY THE BEST CORRIDOR OF SUPERCELL  
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE NEAR THE OUTFLOW/DRYLINE INTERSECTION. AS SUCH, A  
10% OR GREATER SIGNIFICANT SEVERE AREA HAS BEEN WITHHELD FOR NOW.  
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE  
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE.  
   
..LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS  
 
SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO  
EARLY EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT ADVANCING  
NORTH. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE MODEST, YIELDING MINIMAL  
MLCIN BY PEAK HEATING. A PLUME OF MODERATE BUOYANCY COMBINED WITH  
MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS  
WITHIN A WEAKLY FORCED REGIME. A MIX OF AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING  
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS PLAUSIBLE, WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE  
ALONG THE FRONT.  
 
..GRAMS.. 04/28/2025  
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab SPC Page
Main Text Page