570
ACUS03 KWNS 220803
SWODY3
SPC AC 220802
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY. NO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
..DISCUSSION
A POSITIVELY-TILTED, MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF AND CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
ON MONDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WHICH MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE KEYS AND
INTO FAR SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION (40-45 KNOTS), WEAK LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY INHIBIT THE OVERALL THREAT. THEREFORE,
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS UNLIKELY.
A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT, SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING, PARTICULARLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
..BENTLEY.. 02/22/2025
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