004
ACUS03 KWNS 141929
SWODY3
SPC AC 141928
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
HAILSTONES UP TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND A STRONG TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS, SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/PLAINS, RESULTING IN STEADY DEEPENING OF A LEE TROUGH
THROUGH SATURDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD ESTABLISH A BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE
PLAINS, BOUNDED TO THE WEST BY A DRYLINE AND TO THE NORTH BY A
DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE. MEDIUM AND LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN
EMBEDDED LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER DISTURBANCE PROPAGATING INTO THE PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL AUGMENT ASCENT AND PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN PROXIMITY TO A DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN CO, NORTHWEST KS, AND WESTERN NE. ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS INTO WESTERN OK AND NORTHWEST TX, AS WELL AS
ALONG A WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY
REGIONS.
..CENTRAL PLAINS
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BECOME APPARENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE AFTERNOON IN PROXIMITY TO THE
SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE MLCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 2000 J/KG. ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS DEPICTED BY MOST FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND COULD
POSE A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. WITH TIME, UPSCALE
GROWTH AND AN INCREASING SEVERE WIND THREAT IS ANTICIPATED AS STORMS
PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE MOST VOLATILE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT FROM CENTRAL KS NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST KS/CENTRAL
NE. SIMILARLY, LONG-RANGE CAM GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS THE BEST
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL ACROSS THIS REGION. SEVERE PROBABILITIES WERE
ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
..WESTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST TEXAS
CAPPING AT THE BASE OF AN EML WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG MOST THE DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OK AND NORTHWEST
TX. HOWEVER, STRONG DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KM SHOULD PROMOTE ERODING INHIBITION AND
CONSIDERABLE PARCEL RESIDENCE TIME WITHIN THE DRYLINE CIRCULATION.
WHILE MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE QPF SIGNAL IS VERY LIMITED, LONG-RANGE
CAM GUIDANCE DEPICTS AT LEAST SOME SIGNAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL
LIKELY POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS GIVEN AROUND 30
KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
..MIDWEST/OH VALLEYS
A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST
TOWARDS THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE DAY. THE INHIBITING INFLUENCE OF
LOW-LEVEL WARMING NEAR THE BASE OF THE EML WILL BE OFFSET TO SOME
DEGREE BY PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. CONSEQUENTLY,
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS
CENTRAL IL INTO PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY. MUCAPE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION, AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30 KNOTS WITHIN THE WARM FRONTAL
ZONE MAY ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.
..MOORE.. 05/14/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page