416
ACUS03 KWNS 031922
SWODY3
SPC AC 031921
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2026
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO CENTRAL PLAINS.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY WITH A 50 KNOT JET STREAK ON IT'S SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
..UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS
TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY MORNING WITHIN A REGION OF MODERATE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE
GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS
DURING THE MORNING, EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION TO WEAKEN. IN THE WAKE
OF THESE MORNING STORMS, STRONG INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED AMID
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS AND VERY STEP LAPSE RATES. AS THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES, MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LIFTING OF THE CAP
BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN EVENTUAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS FRIDAY
EVENING, A TORNADO THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE, CONDITIONAL ON SUPERCELL
STORM MODE IN THE 00Z TO 03Z TIMEFRAME.
..BENTLEY.. 06/03/2026
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