380  
ACUS03 KWNS 290815  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 290814  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0214 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2023  
 
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z  
   
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST ON TUESDAY.  
   
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
 
 
A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA  
SHOULD DEVELOP VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE  
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO  
REMAIN CONFINED ALONG/SOUTH OF A FRONT WHICH SHOULD EXTEND FROM DEEP  
SOUTH TX ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES  
AND INTO PARTS OF GA/SC. BOTH INSTABILITY AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING  
FOR ASCENT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE EXISTS, WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS. STILL, THERE SHOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL  
FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING FLASHES WITH CLEARLY ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM  
PARTS OF TX INTO THE ARKLATEX VICINITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED  
BY WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ATOP THE STABLE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER, ALONG  
WITH MODESTLY STEEPENED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO  
REMAIN QUITE WEAK, GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT  
HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THESE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
..GLEASON.. 01/29/2023  
 

 
 
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