886
ACUS03 KWNS 281924
SWODY3
SPC AC 281923
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, CENTERED
ON CENTRAL TEXAS TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
..SYNOPSIS
A SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER NM WILL ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING THE OZARKS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A WEAK
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER WEST TX SHOULD DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT EJECTS
TOWARDS THE LOWER MO VALLEY. A COLD TO QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ON D2
WILL ADVANCE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS
AND MIDWEST.
..SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY, CENTERED OVER
WESTERN NORTH TX TO SOUTHWEST OK, ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE
CONVECTIVELY MODULATED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. LOW-LEVEL WARM
THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES EAST.
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING OF THE EXTENSIVE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME DOWNSTREAM WILL LIKELY SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF THE MCS AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ITS OUTFLOWS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
MIX OF ALL HAZARDS IS POSSIBLE, BUT DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN PROBABLE MCS/CLUSTER MODE.
IN ITS WAKE, LATE-AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT STILL SEEMS PROBABLE
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL TX ALONG THE EASTWARD-SURGING DRYLINE. PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY IS WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF OUTFLOW SURGE RELATED
TO THE MORNING MCS AND WHERE EXACTLY THE BEST CORRIDOR OF SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE NEAR THE OUTFLOW/DRYLINE INTERSECTION. AS SUCH, A
10% OR GREATER SIGNIFICANT SEVERE AREA HAS BEEN WITHHELD FOR NOW.
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE.
..LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS
SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT ADVANCING
NORTH. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE MODEST, YIELDING MINIMAL
MLCIN BY PEAK HEATING. A PLUME OF MODERATE BUOYANCY COMBINED WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS
WITHIN A WEAKLY FORCED REGIME. A MIX OF AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS PLAUSIBLE, WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT.
..GRAMS.. 04/28/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page