633
ACUS03 KWNS 220742
SWODY3
SPC AC 220742
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2019
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...
..SUMMARY
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY FROM A
PORTION OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION INTO A PART OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
..SYNOPSIS
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
INITIALLY OVER SD WILL REACH MN BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH IA AND CENTRAL KS. A WARM
FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND BY
EARLY EVENING SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW IN MN THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DRYLINE WILL RESIDE
ACROSS WEST TX DURING THE DAY, BUT SHOULD RETREAT INTO EASTERN NM
DURING THE EVENING.
..EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MID-UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY
AND THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
(1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE) AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. SOME STORMS MAY
BE ONGOING ON COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT AS WELL AS FARTHER WEST
ACROSS KS IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL
PROBABLY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 KM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND THE STRONGEST MID-UPPER WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
WARM SECTOR WHICH COULD BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE
THREAT. HOWEVER, WINDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 40-45 KT LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. IT APPEARS THE PARAMETER SPACE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AREA
STORMS MAY BE ONGOING FROM A PORTION OF WEST TX INTO OK WHICH
COMPLICATES THE FORECAST TO SOME DEGREE. NEVERTHELESS, INITIAL
ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN, WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER RECOVERY
DURING THE AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING STRONG INSTABILITY WITH
2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. A BELT OF 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL
PERSIST OVER THIS REGION, THEREFORE THE PARAMETER SPACE WILL BE
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS. WHILE DRYLINE CONVERGENCE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND FORCING ALOFT WILL BE
WEAK, POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT EITHER
ALONG THE DRYLINE OR IN ASSOCIATION WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM
EARLY CONVECTION. WILL INTRODUCE A MARGINAL RISK CATEGORY THIS
UPDATE, BUT AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN
FUTURE OUTLOOKS ONCE SOME OF THE MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES HAVE BEEN
MITIGATED.
..DIAL.. 05/22/2019
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