228
ACUS03 KWNS 030725
SWODY3
SPC AC 030725
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2026
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KANSAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...AND FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO
WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS, OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA, AND FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
..SYNOPSIS
A BROAD, CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER MO
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WITH THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE BOUNDARY SETTLING MORE
SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
..LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS INTO EASTERN KANSAS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY ALONG AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF NE AND IA INTO
SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MAY SUSTAIN A SUBSET OF
THE EARLY-DAY STORMS INTO AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW MAY MODULATE
THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WITH LINGERING CLOUDS LIMITING
INSTABILITY IN SOME AREAS. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
CORRIDOR FROM EASTERN KS INTO WEST-CENTRAL IL AS BEING THE MOST
PROBABLE LOCATION FOR MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON.
THAT AREA WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. ONLY A 5% PROBABILITY CONTOUR HAS BEEN
INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SPECIFIC
LOCATION OF THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT.
..SOUTHERN ARIZONA
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE GILA MOUNTAINS WITH SUBSEQUENT
SOUTH/SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT INTO THE LOWER DESERT, WHERE A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK, THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP, WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
..SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
ISOLATED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT RATON MESA WITHIN
A MODESTLY MOIST, POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME. THE PRESENCE OF STEEP
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
COINCIDE WITH 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER.
..MEAD.. 08/03/2026
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