587
ACUS03 KWNS 081831
SWODY3
SPC AC 081830
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2025
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA ON SATURDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY, AS A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE NORTHEAST. BENEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE, AN
UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ABOUT THE SABINE/LOWER MS VALLEYS, PROVIDING
COOL AIR ALOFT.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH ANOTHER RIDGE FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY. AN OLD FRONT WILL STALL ROUGHLY FROM FAR SOUTHERN AL AND
GA INTO NORTHERN FL, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
GULF.
..NORTHERN FL INTO SOUTHERN GA
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT
PARTS OF THE COASTAL FL PANHANDLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS.
TO THE EAST, HEATING OVER PARTS OF FL, AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN GA,
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE, RESULTING IN AN UNCAPPED
AIR MASS. CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AS WELL AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS. SHEAR WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG, BUT THE STRONGEST INITIAL CORES MAY PRODUCE
HAIL AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COOL. OTHERWISE, CLUSTERS OF
STORMS OR OUTFLOWS COULD LOCALLY CAUSE WIND DAMAGE.
..JEWELL.. 05/08/2025
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