769
ACUS48 KWNS 220902
SWOD48
SPC AC 220901
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2021
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
..DISCUSSION
MONDAY (DAY 4) - SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY PERSIST WITH THE
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE MOIST CORRIDOR WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO
BE RATHER NARROW. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
WILL BE TOWARDS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE QUALITY OF THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
AS A RESULT WILL NOT INTRODUCE A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA FOR THIS
OUTLOOK, BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE IN LATER UPDATES.
TUESDAY (DAY 5) - A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT, WITH GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED OVER A
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY (DAY 6) - A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MIGHT PERSIST AS THE
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING WHERE GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE GREATEST.
..DIAL.. 10/22/2021
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page