673
ACUS48 KWNS 230844
SWOD48
SPC AC 230842
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
VALID 261200Z - 311200Z
..DISCUSSION
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIKELY TRAVERSE THE PLAINS ON D4/TUESDAY,
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON
D6/THURSDAY OR D7/FRIDAY. MOISTURE RETURN IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH, SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL VARIABILITY IS LESS IN THE MOST RECENT RUNS THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS, BUT STILL EXHIBITS ENOUGH VARIANCE WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH (PARTICULARLY IN ITS SPEED AND STRENGTH) TO
LIMIT FORECAST CONFIDENCE. GIVEN THE LIMITED FORECAST CONFIDENCE, NO
AREAS WILL BE DELINEATED WITH THIS OUTLOOK. HOWEVER, THIS SEVERE
POTENTIAL BEARS WATCHING CLOSELY AND OUTLOOK AREAS MAY BE NEEDED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
..MOSIER.. 03/23/2019
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