980
ACUS48 KWNS 251040
SWOD48
SPC AC 251039
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
VALID 281200Z - 051200Z
..DISCUSSION
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LARGE-SCALE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL UPPER-AIR PATTERN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH SHOULD FLIP, EVOLVING TOWARD A WESTERN TROUGH
AND EASTERN RIDGE. AS THIS HAPPENS, SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW INTO
THE CENTRAL US WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL WARMING/MOISTENING OF THE
PLAINS' LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND THE
OVERALL QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE RETURN REMAIN TO BE SEEN.
THIS MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST ON SATURDAY (DAY 4) AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. HOWEVER, A COLD
FRONT WILL SUPPRESS THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY (DAYS 5 AND 6), WITH SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS
SUGGESTING A REINFORCING FRONTAL PUSH ON TUESDAY.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (DAYS 7 AND 8), THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS TEXAS AND REDEVELOP NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION VARIES GREATLY BETWEEN DIFFERENT ENSEMBLES AND EVEN WITHIN
THE MEMBERSHIP OF SPECIFIC ENSEMBLES. AS SUCH, THE OVERALL POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ON ANY DAY LOOKS TO BE TOO LOW FOR
UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES. HOWEVER, PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS
THUNDERSTORM (AND SEVERE) POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL US JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
..MARSH.. 02/25/2026
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