686
ACUS48 KWNS 010829
SWOD48
SPC AC 010827
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CDT WED APR 01 2026
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
..DISCUSSION
SOME DEGREE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK,
A COMBINATION OF BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT AND THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST
WILL LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES.
..D4/SATURDAY - GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
AN UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY
TRANSLATE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY; HOWEVER,
LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW HIGH PROBABILITY IN
SURFACE/MIXED-LAYER BUOYANCY VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG.
NONETHELESS, STRONG FLOW WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT A SEVERE WIND THREAT WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN BECOME
SUFFICIENTLY INTENSE. WHILE SOME SEVERE RISK IS ANTICIPATED, THE
COMBINATION OF A MODEST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TIMING/PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH PEAK HEATING
PRECLUDES RISK PROBABILITIES.
..D5/SUNDAY - MID-ATLANTIC
THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST BY
LATE SUNDAY, THOUGH LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. SLOWER SOLUTIONS, SUCH AS THE 00Z ECMWF,
SUGGEST THAT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE GREATEST. STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH ROBUST BROAD-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
PRIMARY UPPER WAVE MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG GUIDANCE AT THIS
TIME IS THAT THIS SCENARIO IS LIKELY THE OUTLIER SOLUTION.
..MOORE.. 04/01/2026
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