800
ACUS48 KWNS 100903
SWOD48
SPC AC 100901
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
..DISCUSSION
..DAYS 4-6/FRI-SUN -- TX INTO THE SOUTHEAST
AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHEAST DAYS 4-6/FRI-SUN. BEGINNING ON DAY 4/FRIDAY,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
TX. AS THE SYSTEM SPREADS EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, GULF MOISTURE
(UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS) WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF CENTRAL
TO EASTERN TX TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. SOME MODEL
SPREAD PERSISTS WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH, AND EXACT LATITUDE OF THE SURFACE LOW (SOME
GUIDANCE CLUSTERING FURTHER SOUTH, OTHER GUIDANCE A BIT FURTHER
NORTH), WHICH WILL IMPACT QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN. REGARDLESS, AT
LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION SHOULD ACCOMPANY BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING AND COOLING ALOFT AMID STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
SOME LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX, AND INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY WEAK DESTABILIZATION, A
SOMEWHAT COOL BOUNDARY LAYER, AND QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE RETURN THIS
EARLY IN THE SEASON, PRECLUDING 15 PERCENT SEVERE DELINEATION.
..LEITMAN.. 02/10/2026
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