739
ACUS48 KWNS 230840
SWOD48
SPC AC 230838
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
VALID 261200Z - 311200Z
..DISCUSSION
..D4/WEDNESDAY TO D6/FRIDAY
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS AMPLITUDE ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
WITHIN THIS PATTERN, SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY EXIST AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE
SIGNAL IS NOT THAT STRONG AND THUS, IT IS UNCLEAR IF MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED THREAT WILL EXIST; BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FRONT AND THE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE MONITORED.
..D7/SATURDAY TO D8/SUNDAY
THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND, BUT A GENERAL TREND TOWARD FLATTENING
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC, AI, AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NEXT WEEKEND. THIS INCLUDES MODERATE FLOW WITHIN
THE ZONAL REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS STRONG
INSTABILITY AND MODERATE SHEAR APPEAR TO OVERLAP ACROSS A RELATIVELY
BROAD REGION, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
GIVEN THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE. THE SPECIFIC TIMING/LOCATION OF
THESE THREATS WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AND THE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE FLOW. HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE EC-AIFS AND THE AIGFS BOTH HAVE A SIGNAL FOR A MORE
CONSOLIDATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY/D8, WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWN BY THE
EC-AIFS FOR THE PAST 4 RUNS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, THERE MAY BE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PROBABILITIES TO BE ADDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..BENTLEY.. 08/23/2026
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