509
ACUS48 KWNS 140827
SWOD48
SPC AC 140825
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
..DISCUSSION
..DAYS 4 THROUGH 6/SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY ON
DAY 4/SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST
WILL WEAKEN WHILE ACCELERATING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. IN THE LOW LEVELS, A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
..DAYS 7 AND 8/TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC COAST. MEANWHILE, AN ASSOCIATED DEEPENING OF
A LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, WHICH IN TURN
WILL PROMOTE THE POLEWARD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS
FROM THE GULF INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE BY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY IN THE
LOWER-COLORADO VALLEY, WHERE STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREAD A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW QUICKLY THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE INTERIOR WEST; HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR THAT SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
..MEAD.. 10/14/2026
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