180
ACUS48 KWNS 120817
SWOD48
SPC AC 120815
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
..DISCUSSION
...DAY 4/SUNDAY - ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE MS/LOWER
OH VALLEYS...
AN INTENSE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS AND SHIFT EAST
TO THE MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS, AN 80-100 KT JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, AN
ALREADY STRONG CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES FROM THE
LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY. AS THIS OCCURS, A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN U.S., BECOMING ORIENTED FROM OHIO
TO THE FL PANHANDLE BY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, STRONGER GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE CONFINED TO TX AND
THE LOWER MS VALLEY VICINITY, WITH MAINLY 50S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED
WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS AND OH VALLEY REGIONS.
FURTHERMORE, CAPPING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
POTENTIALLY LIMITING WARM SECTOR CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS, MODEST
MOISTURE AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
WEAK DESTABILIZATION VERY NEAR THE COLD FRONT. A NARROW LINE OF
STRONGLY-FORCED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/TX INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS AND
LOWER OH/TN VALLEY REGIONS. GIVEN INTENSE DEEP-LAYER FLOW NEAR AND
JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, STRONG/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST WITHIN A MODEST INSTABILITY/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. A 15
PERCENT SEVERE DELINEATION HAS BEEN INCLUDED FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO
THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY VICINITY. DEPENDING ON LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRENDS, THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTH
AND EAST INTO A LARGER PORTION OF THE MIDDLE MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEY
VICINITY IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
..DAY 5/MONDAY - SOUTHEAST TO MID-ATLANTIC
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS
THE INTENSE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE EAST FROM THE MS
VALLEY TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD. INTENSE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE, 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST GA NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT ALSO WILL SUPPORT
BACKING LOW-LEVEL WINDS, LEADING TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER AND WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, STRONGER DESTABILIZATION MAY BE
INHIBITED. NEVERTHELESS, AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AHEAD
OF A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY ALONE COULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. A MORE CONDITIONAL RISK OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN VA/NC, BUT THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
GIVEN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGLY FORCED LINEAR
CONVECTION, A 15 PERCENT SEVERE DELINEATION HAS BEEN ADDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
..DAYS 6-8/TUESDAY-THURSDAY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL AS GULF
MOISTURE REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE.
..LEITMAN.. 03/12/2026
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