769
ACUS48 KWNS 290932
SWOD48
SPC AC 290930
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2023
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
..DISCUSSION
SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY FOCUS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES ON DAY 5/THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EJECT FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST IN THIS
TIME FRAME. A RELATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR AND
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THERE ARE STILL DISPARITIES IN DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN, AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS
REGARDING INLAND WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT VERIFY, THEN AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
LA/MS/AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY. BUT, DUE TO CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PLACEMENT/AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND RELATED SURFACE FEATURES, WILL DEFER POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF A
15% SEVERE AREA TO A LATER OUTLOOK PENDING BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT.
SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST ON DAY 6/FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS PARTS
OF FL ALONG/AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST,
BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT A RISK
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW HIGHLIGHTS FOR FRIDAY. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS
THE COAST, SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE
CONUS.
..GLEASON.. 01/29/2023
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