673  
ACUS48 KWNS 230844  
SWOD48  
SPC AC 230842  
 
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0342 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
VALID 261200Z - 311200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIKELY TRAVERSE THE PLAINS ON D4/TUESDAY,  
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON  
D6/THURSDAY OR D7/FRIDAY. MOISTURE RETURN IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF  
THIS UPPER TROUGH, SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. RUN-TO-RUN AND  
MODEL-TO-MODEL VARIABILITY IS LESS IN THE MOST RECENT RUNS THAN  
PREVIOUS RUNS, BUT STILL EXHIBITS ENOUGH VARIANCE WITH THE EVOLUTION  
OF THE UPPER TROUGH (PARTICULARLY IN ITS SPEED AND STRENGTH) TO  
LIMIT FORECAST CONFIDENCE. GIVEN THE LIMITED FORECAST CONFIDENCE, NO  
AREAS WILL BE DELINEATED WITH THIS OUTLOOK. HOWEVER, THIS SEVERE  
POTENTIAL BEARS WATCHING CLOSELY AND OUTLOOK AREAS MAY BE NEEDED IN  
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES.  
 
..MOSIER.. 03/23/2019  
 
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