232  
ACUS48 KWNS 160821  
SWOD48  
SPC AC 160820  
 
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0220 AM CST WED JAN 16 2019  
 
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELS FROM TX ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON  
SATURDAY/D4, LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM AR ACROSS OH AND TN,  
GRADUALLY DEEPENING. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH, MOVING FROM THE  
SABINE RIVER ACROSS LA, MS, AND AL DURING THE DAY, WITH LOW 60S F  
DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST. LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING WARM  
ADVECTION ABOVE A RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER, WILL RESULT IN  
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE LOW, WITH  
THUNDERSTORMS INTERSPERSED. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK, BUT STRONG,  
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY FAVOR A FEW WIND GUSTS WITH SOME OF  
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS MAY OCCUR,  
POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FRAME TO INTRODUCE A RISK AREA.  
 
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY SUNDAY/D5 AS THE LOW  
TRAVELS RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. BY THIS TIME,  
INSTABILITY WILL BE EVEN LESS THAN ON THE PREVIOUS DAY, WITH ONLY  
LOW SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES.  
 
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY AFFECT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE  
COUNTRY DURING THE D7-D8 PERIOD, BUT INSTABILITY WILL NOT FAVOR ANY  
SEVERE THREAT AS THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL BE DRY.  
 
..JEWELL.. 01/16/2019  
 
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