365
ACUS48 KWNS 050902
SWOD48
SPC AC 050900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT WED AUG 05 2026
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
..DISCUSSION
..SATURDAY/D4
SOUTHWEST MIDLEVEL WINDS OF ONLY 25 KT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE SUPPORTING UP
TO 2000 J/KG MUCAPE WITH POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT. THIS WILL SUPPORT
DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM THE APPALACHIANS INTO
THE NORTHEAST, AND A FEW SEVERE GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE, NORMAL GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE TO BE EXPECTED.
TO THE WEST, AN AREA OF STRONGER INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
MID MO VALLEY, WHERE NORTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL WINDS OF 35 KT WILL
EXIST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. EVENING/OVERNIGHT STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN NE, IA, AND MO, AND INSTABILITY MAY BE LARGE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AS THE EVENT NEARS IN
TIME.
..SUNDAY/D5
DRYING WILL OCCUR ALOFT OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AS A WAVE MOVES
INTO QUEBEC, BUT SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC. SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE WEAK, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH MEAN WIND
SPEEDS WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO BE MOBILE/PRODUCE AREAS OF STRONG
GUSTS.
TO THE WEST, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT A BIT FARTHER
NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS, AND THIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS AREA BEARS WATCHING IN LATER OUTLOOKS, AS
WIND PROFILES MAY SOMEWHAT FAVOR SUPERCELLS. PREDICTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY LOW.
..MON/D6 TO WED/D8
WHILE PREDICTABILITY DECREASES FURTHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME,
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST
D7/D8. IF A WAVE DOES AMPLIFY WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME, A CORRIDOR OF
DAMAGING WINDS COULD DEVELOP GIVEN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MEAN FRONTAL ZONE (ROUGHLY IA TO NY/PA BY END OF
THE PERIOD). MODEL VARIATION IS CURRENTLY TOO GREAT TO DEPICT AN
PRECISE CORRIDOR.
..JEWELL.. 08/05/2026
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