279
ACUS48 KWNS 030859
SWOD48
SPC AC 030858
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT THU JUL 03 2025
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
..DISCUSSION
DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ASIDE FROM THE PRIMARY RIDGE, THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGHOUT THE FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND ALSO FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, BUT STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR SHOULD MOSTLY STAY NORTH
OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK (MID WEEK ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND LATE NEXT
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ECMWF) MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
LIKELY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE PLAINS (TO THE EAST OF THE PRIMARY
RIDGE). WHENEVER THIS OCCURS, THE PATTERN WOULD FAVOR SEVERE MCSS
GIVEN THE FORECAST STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
HOWEVER, THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS TOO
GREAT TO PROVIDE AN ACCURATE FORECAST OF THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
..BENTLEY.. 07/03/2025
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