595
ACUS48 KWNS 160858
SWOD48
SPC AC 160856
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
..DISCUSSION
LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT MODEST PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE VICINITY
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS, AND PERHAPS THE SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH NORTHERN
MISSOURI/SOUTHEASTERN IOWA, MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THIS
MAY BE SUPPORTED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF WEAK
LARGER-SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SLOWLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO GREAT PLAINS, WITH DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE CONTRIBUTING TO THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES POTENTIALLY
CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, WITH THE BELT OF STRONGER
LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A PRECEDING IMPULSE
TENDING TO WEAKEN AND/OR SHIFT EASTWARD NEAR OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AND/OR MARGINAL IN NATURE.
THEREAFTER, LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SPREAD
AMONG MODEL OUTPUT CONCERNING THE MID/UPPER FLOW EVOLUTION
INCREASES. HOWEVER, EVEN AMONG THE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS, THERE IS
LITTLE READILY APPARENT THAT INDICATES AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
..KERR.. 09/16/2026
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