457
ACUS48 KWNS 220856
SWOD48
SPC AC 220855
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
..DISCUSSION
..D4/THURSDAY - CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS, COMBINED WITH A PASSING MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR WILL EXIST FROM
NORTHERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN WYOMING AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW/FORCING OVERSPREADS THE
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.
BEYOND DAY 4 THERE WILL LIKELY BE MULTIPLE DAYS WITH EVENTUAL SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITIES GIVEN THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG. HOWEVER, AT THIS
TIME, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING/LOCATION OF
EACH OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, AND FOR WHEN THE CORE OF
THE JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWEST CONUS LOW EJECTS INTO
THE PLAINS.
DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES, NO PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADDED BEYOND
DAY 4, BUT EVENTUAL PROBABILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..BENTLEY.. 06/22/2026
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