769  
ACUS48 KWNS 290932  
SWOD48  
SPC AC 290930  
 
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0330 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2023  
 
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY FOCUS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST  
STATES ON DAY 5/THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EJECT FROM THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST IN THIS  
TIME FRAME. A RELATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR AND  
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY BY  
THURSDAY EVENING. THERE ARE STILL DISPARITIES IN DETERMINISTIC AND  
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE RETURN, AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP THROUGH  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS  
REGARDING INLAND WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT VERIFY, THEN AT LEAST AN  
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN  
LA/MS/AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY. BUT, DUE TO CONTINUED  
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PLACEMENT/AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH  
AND RELATED SURFACE FEATURES, WILL DEFER POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF A  
15% SEVERE AREA TO A LATER OUTLOOK PENDING BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT.  
 
SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST ON DAY 6/FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS PARTS  
OF FL ALONG/AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH  
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST,  
BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND  
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT A RISK  
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED  
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW HIGHLIGHTS FOR FRIDAY. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS  
THE COAST, SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE  
CONUS.  
 
..GLEASON.. 01/29/2023  
 
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