613
ACUS48 KWNS 090848
SWOD48
SPC AC 090847
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 AM CST SUN NOV 09 2025
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
..DISCUSSION
MODIFIED RETURN FLOW WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF MID
TO LATE WEEK, WITH A MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS PROBABLY REACHING
PARTS OF THE TX GULF COAST NEXT WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED BY WPC'S EPD,
RUN-TO-RUN MODEL VARIABILITY REMAINS HIGH WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF
SPREAD IN THE POTENTIAL EVOLUTION OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST ON D5/THURSDAY. THIS IS WELL ILLUSTRATED
BY THE CHANGE IN SPC-CSU GEFS-ML PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS FOR D7/SATURDAY -- FROM A MESOSCALE 5% AREA IN THE
MID-MS VALLEY IN YESTERDAY'S D8 TO A FULL-LATITUDE 5% FROM THE RIO
GRANDE TO THE GREAT LAKES, ALONG WITH BROAD 15% AND 30% HIGHLIGHTS
FROM PARTS OF TX/LA TO THE MID-MS VALLEY. WHILE ITS PARENT 00Z GFS
APPEARS CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE, OVER WHAT WOULD LIKELY BE A SUBSET OF
THESE LARGE HIGHLIGHTS, THIS LATEST RUN LACKS ANY SEMBLANCE OF
CONTINUITY. IN ADDITION, OTHER MODELS, SUCH AS THE EC-AIFS SUGGEST A
CLOSED, CUTOFF LOW MAY JUST BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ONSHORE ON
D7/SATURDAY, COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE, FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS IN THIS GFS RUN. FOR THIS FORECAST, WILL UPGRADE TO
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW FOR D7/SATURDAY AND EXTEND INTO D8/SUNDAY FOR
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLE SEVERE, PROBABLY FOCUSED IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES, WITHIN A LOW PREDICTABILITY PATTERN.
..GRAMS.. 11/09/2025
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