942
ACUS48 KWNS 170756
SWOD48
SPC AC 170755
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
..DISCUSSION
...DAYS 4-6/MON-WED -- GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DEVELOP EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY, THEN THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
VICINITY ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL LIKEWISE
PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THIS THREE DAY PERIOD, WITH A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS OVERALL
PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING MULTIPLE DAYS OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY,
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
NECESSITATING SEVERE PROBABILITIES. WHILE THESE AREAS MAY SHIFT SOME
OVER THE COMING DAY AS THE TIMING OF MESOSCALE FEATURES AND
INFLUENCE OF PRIOR DAYS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE CLEAR, THESE GENERAL
REGIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA.
..DAYS 7-8/THU-FRI
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST WHILE
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED FROM TX TO MT. OVERALL,
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..LEITMAN.. 07/17/2026
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