203
ACUS48 KWNS 290912
SWOD48
SPC AC 290911
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
..DISCUSSION
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES A LOWER-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN CA COAST AT 12Z THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE APPEARS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES
THROUGH LATE WEEK, INITIALLY INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN OVER THE WESTERN GULF, AFTER A PERVASIVE CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
INTRUSION TODAY.
INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS ANTICIPATED AROUND LATE D5/FRIDAY
TO D6/SATURDAY ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES FROM LA TO NORTH FL, AND
INTO PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH. RUN-TO-RUN-PREDICTABILITY AND SPREAD
ACROSS GUIDANCE REMAINS LESS-THAN-IDEAL FOR TIMING/LOCATION OF
AMPLIFICATION/DAMPENING DETAILS FOR THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BULK OF
SIGNALS ARE STILL FOR A MODEST SURFACE CYCLONE AND SEEMINGLY
LOWER-END SEVERE RISK. BUT THERE'S ENOUGH MINORITY SIGNAL TO WARRANT
CONCERN FOR A POTENTIAL 15 PERCENT AREA IN LATER OUTLOOK CYCLES.
..GRAMS.. 12/29/2025
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