862
ACUS48 KWNS 041001
SWOD48
SPC AC 040959
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CST TUE FEB 04 2025
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
..DISCUSSION
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 6
(SUNDAY), IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURES. SUBSTANTIAL DIVERGENCE
BEGINS THEREAFTER, CASTING SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST
BEYOND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DAY 4, AS AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST MOVES
INTO/ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE U.S. WILL CONTINUE. WEAK AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WEST WITH TIME, HOWEVER, AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS, FRONTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE PERSISTENT WEST-TO-EAST FRONT LYING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER, WITH ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY EXPECTED NEAR THE DEVELOPING LOW, AND EASTWARD ALONG THE
FRONT, CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
DAY 5, THE UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY, AND INTO AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL LOW --
INITIALLY PROGGED TO LIE OVER THE OKLAHOMA VICINITY, WILL DEEPEN AS
IT SHIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME, REACHING THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE TRAILING SURFACE FRONT WILL
SHARPEN AND ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD, EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO COASTAL TEXAS LATE. WHILE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ADVANCE, WEAK
INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME SHOULD AGAIN HINDER CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY.
DAY 6, AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE FRONT CONTINUES ADVANCING
STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD, IT SHOULD CLEAR THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS
DURING THE EVENING, LINGERING ONLY ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE CONTINUED TREND OF WEAK INSTABILITY, AS WELL AS
WEAKENING FLOW WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT, SHOULD HINDER PROSPECTS FOR
MORE ROBUST CONVECTION.
..GOSS.. 02/04/2025
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