375
ACUS48 KWNS 140903
SWOD48
SPC AC 140901
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
..DISCUSSION
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE US MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A CONUS-WIDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL US TO A WESTERN US RIDGE AND EASTERN US TROUGH.
HOWEVER THE DETAILS OF HOW THIS TRANSITION EVOLVES ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN.
THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL FAVOR NORTHWEST
FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
AREAS NORTH AND EAST FROM THERE. INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE
SUITE, INCLUDING THE CONTROL MEMBERS, SHOW SEVERAL SMALL
VORTICITY/SPEED MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW THIS WEEKEND IN QUICK
SUCCESSION, WITH SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH OF THESE
WAVES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES HAVE SUPPORT FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, BUT DIFFER ON WHEN THIS
WILL OCCUR. FOR EXAMPLE, BOTH THE CONTROL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
HAVE A STRONGER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, BUT THE GFS DOES
SO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WHEREAS THE ECMWF DOES SO ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
THUS, WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,
PERHAPS IN RELATIVELY QUICK SUCCESSION, UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO
HIGHLIGHT ANY SEVERE AREAS WITH CONFIDENCE AT CURRENT LEAD TIMES.
..MARSH.. 07/14/2026
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