724
ACUS48 KWNS 310852
SWOD48
SPC AC 310850
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
..DISCUSSION
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO PARTS OF THE WEEKEND AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER WAVE
AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TRAVERSE THE COUNTRY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATE-WEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY PUSH
SOUTH INTO THE GULF BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY AND SHORT-WAVE RIDGING BUILDS
ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
..D4/FRIDAY - LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SUPPORT
STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN KS AND INTO
THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
A NORTHWARD FLUX OF LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH
SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO PERHAPS 3000 J/KG
ACROSS NORTHERN OK INTO EASTERN KS AND FAR WESTERN MO BY LATE
AFTERNOON BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY BEGINS TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AND OVERTAKES A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS AND STORM MOTIONS OFF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD PROMOTE INITIALLY
DISCRETE CELLS, THOUGH UPSCALE GROWTH IS ANTICIPATED BY THE EVENING
HOURS AMID PERSISTENT ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. REGARDLESS, LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A ROBUST CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS, AND THE FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT OF
BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
SEVERE THREAT EMERGING ACROSS THIS REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
..D5/SATURDAY - MIDWEST/OH VALLEY
FRIDAY'S SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY.
NORTHWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A TRAILING COLD
FRONT AS IT RAPIDLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND LOWER OH
VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG FLOW FIELDS WITHIN THE LOWEST
FEW KILOMETERS AND FOCUSED LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
SOME DEGREE OF A SEVERE WIND THREAT. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW DISAGREEMENT REGARDING MEAN WIND VECTOR ORIENTATION WITH THE
FRONT AND THE DEGREE OF PRE-FRONTAL DESTABILIZATION, BOTH OF WHICH
WILL INFLUENCE THE INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AND THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT.
..MOORE.. 03/31/2026
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