371
ACUS48 KWNS 240903
SWOD48
SPC AC 240901
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VALID 271200Z - 021200Z
..DISCUSSION
LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE PERTURBATION EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST
OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY, INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION, MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM
SECTOR OF AN ASSOCIATED SUB-1000 MB SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BECOME
CHARACTERIZED BY AT LEAST MODERATELY LARGE CAPE, AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS
PROBABLE. IT REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR THE EXTENT TO WHICH SUSTAINED
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MAINTAINED, AS OPPOSED TO CONVECTION
QUICKLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS/LINES, BUT THERE
APPEARS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES, IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY, INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK, CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE UNCLEAR AS STRONG FLOW
TRENDS WESTERLY, AND BROADLY CONFLUENT ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
ROCKIES, BETWEEN BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVERSPREADING THE
NORTHERN TIER AND BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ANOTHER, INITIALLY NOTABLE, SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION EMERGING FROM
THE SOUTHERN MID-LATITUDE/SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC IS STILL
FORECAST TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHWEST. BUT LATEST MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY BECOME SHEARED WHILE CONTINUING ACROSS AND EAST
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WITH ONLY MODEST TO WEAK SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS CURRENTLY FORECAST ALONG A REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH SOUTHEAST.
..KERR.. 04/24/2026
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