340
ACUS48 KWNS 300855
SWOD48
SPC AC 300853
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
..DISCUSSION
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC REGIME - PARTICULARLY REGARDING THE
PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
DURING THE LATE-WEEK/EARLY-WEEKEND PERIOD.
..D4/THURSDAY - MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY
A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO
STALL ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ADVANCING NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW ON THURSDAY.
NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO THE LOW. LONG-RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS
WILL SUPPORT ADEQUATE BUOYANCY FOR DEEP CONVECTION, AND 35-45 KNOT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS. UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING STORM MODE PERSIST BASED ON MEAN WIND VECTORS LARGELY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, BUT SOME SEVERE RISK APPEARS LIKELY GIVEN
FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND SHEAR.
..D5/FRIDAY - CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS THAT AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS CO/KS AND A
NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE (POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS LOW TO MID 60S
DEWPOINTS) INTO OK AND EASTERN KS. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING LOW APPEARS PROBABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON
BASED ON DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE QPF SIGNALS, AND STRENGTHENING
FLOW ALOFT MAY FAVOR DISCRETE STORM MODES FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, NOTABLY THE 00Z GEFS,
SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR A SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT FROM NORTHERN OK INTO EASTERN KS FRIDAY AFTERNOON (E.G.
30% PROBABILITY FOR SCP VALUES ABOVE 5). DESPITE IMPROVING AGREEMENT
AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, THIS ALIGNMENT HAS ONLY
EMERGED OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS. SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS AND NORTHERN OK IF THIS TREND
HOLDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
..D6/SATURDAY - OHIO VALLEY
SIMILAR TO D5/FRIDAY, GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE INTENSIFICATION AND NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE LOW THROUGH D6/SATURDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL USHER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE DIURNAL HEATING MAY SUPPORT EITHER DEVELOPMENT OF
NEW CONVECTION ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT AND/OR RE-INTENSIFICATION
OF RESIDUAL CONVECTION (THOUGH THE QUALITY AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE
RETURN REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE). REGARDLESS,
INTENSIFYING WIND FIELDS SHOULD PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. AS WITH
D5/FRIDAY, RISK PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IF CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS ARE MAINTAINED AND CONFIDENCE THE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY QUALITY
INCREASES.
..MOORE.. 03/30/2026
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