237
ACUS48 KWNS 290846
SWOD48
SPC AC 290845
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
..DISCUSSION
A MORE SEASONAL SYNOPTIC REGIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS LONG-WAVE TROUGHING SLOWLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL FAVOR LEE
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AND POLEWARD MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF OCCASIONAL
FRONTAL INTRUSIONS. IN GENERAL, ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS THAT A
LEADING, LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE D4/WEDNESDAY TO D5/THURSDAY PERIOD BEFORE A
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
D6/FRIDAY TO D7/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WHILE THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT
IN THIS PATTERN AMONG MOST GUIDANCE, NOTABLE DISCREPANCIES AND
SPREAD AMONG SOLUTIONS LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION, TIMING, OR
MAGNITUDE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT.
..D4/WEDNESDAY - SOUTHERN PLAINS
A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. ON
TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OH
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. ALOFT, ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL OVERSPREAD TX/OK, LEADING TO MODEST SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONTINUED MOISTURE
RETURN COUPLED WITH EASTERLY ADVECTION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LIKELY YIELD A RESERVOIR OF BUOYANCY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN TX/OK AND INTO AR/LA. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE APPEARS PROBABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND 40-50 KNOT
MID-LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE WAVE SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE WIND
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
VARIABILITY WITH FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND IS LIKELY DISPLAYING A
NORTHWARD BIAS GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE TO
UNDERESTIMATE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, IT IS UNCLEAR
WHETHER STORM MOTIONS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE FAVORABLY
ORIENTED TO THE FRONT TO SUPPORT DISCRETE CONVECTION AND A MORE
ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.
..D6/FRIDAY AND D7/SATURDAY - SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY
MORE INTENSE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS AN
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST. NORTHWARD MOISTURE
RETURN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN VICINITY TO THE DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE.
ALTHOUGH MODEL VARIABILITY REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH AT THIS RANGE,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A MODEST QPF SIGNAL ACROSS OK/KS WHERE
THE PROBABILITY FOR ADEQUATE SBCAPE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS REASONABLY HIGH.
ON SATURDAY, THE EJECTION OF THE UPPER WAVE INTO THE PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN THE NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE LEE CYCLONE. RAPID
MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
POSSIBLE AS THE LOW REACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE SATURDAY.
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE QPF SIGNALS, SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS NOTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO THE LOW. HOWEVER, HIGH VARIABILITY AMONG GUIDANCE OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUB-OPTIMAL DISPLACEMENT
OF THE PRIMARY UPPER JET WITH THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR CASTS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
..MOORE.. 03/29/2026
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