644
ACUS48 KWNS 080752
SWOD48
SPC AC 080751
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 AM CST SUN FEB 08 2026
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
..DISCUSSION
SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE ON DAY 4/WED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GULF COAST STATES AS A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE GULF AND FL. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION, AND WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE FRONT, COMBINED WITH COOLING
ALOFT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
SPREAD AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, THE GENERAL PATTERN SUGGESTS UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAY 6/FRI. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S., AND APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH, SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL SUPPORT MODEST NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF AT
LEAST SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE INTO TX AND THE GULF COAST STATES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND DAY 7/SAT, SOME POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. GIVEN A COUPLE DAYS OF INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE, SOME LOW SEVERE RISK COULD ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. HOWEVER, LARGE SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN AND
ENSUING DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE A 15 PERCENT SEVERE DELINEATION.
..LEITMAN.. 02/08/2026
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