769  
ACUS48 KWNS 220902  
SWOD48  
SPC AC 220901  
 
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0401 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2021  
 
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
MONDAY (DAY 4) - SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY PERSIST WITH THE  
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE TN AND OH  
VALLEYS DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT.  
HOWEVER, THE MOIST CORRIDOR WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO  
BE RATHER NARROW. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS  
WILL BE TOWARDS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS LINGERING  
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE QUALITY OF THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  
AS A RESULT WILL NOT INTRODUCE A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA FOR THIS  
OUTLOOK, BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE IN LATER UPDATES.  
 
TUESDAY (DAY 5) - A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO  
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND  
CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS  
SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF  
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT, WITH GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED OVER A  
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
 
WEDNESDAY (DAY 6) - A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MIGHT PERSIST AS THE  
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE DAY  
AND INTO THE EVENING WHERE GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE GREATEST.  
 
..DIAL.. 10/22/2021  
 
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