861
ACUS48 KWNS 050859
SWOD48
SPC AC 050857
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT MON OCT 05 2026
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
..DISCUSSION
LITTLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EVIDENT FROM THUR/D4 THROUGH FRI/D5,
AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST MAINTAIN
COOL CONDITIONS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES
PREVENTING MOISTURE RETURN.
FOR LATE SAT/D6 INTO SUN/D7, CONDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF AMERICA.
NHC CURRENTLY DENOTES A 50% CHANCE OF CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK
MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER TX, AND MOVE ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES DURING THE SAME TIME. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHEAR COULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF TORNADO
POTENTIAL. ANY SUCH EVENT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON CYCLONE
FORMATION, AND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
FROM SUN/D7 AND BEYOND, MODELS SUGGEST A WESTERN TROUGH MAY DEVELOP,
THOUGH MODEL SPREAD IS HIGH.
..JEWELL.. 10/05/2026
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