314
ACUS48 KWNS 250846
SWOD48
SPC AC 250844
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
..DISCUSSION
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS LIMITED FOR THIS WEEKEND,
THOUGH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOME SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
D3/FRIDAY INTO D4/SATURDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND OH VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS
FOR MOST REGIONS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CONCURRENTLY, A SLIGHT
RE-AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THIS WEEKEND OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
REASONABLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST AND PROMOTE
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. TIGHT CLUSTERING OF
GEFS MEMBERS LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL MOISTURE BY THE D6/MONDAY TO D7/TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PREDOMINANT AND PROMOTES ASCENT/LAPSE-RATE ADVECTION OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF THE RETURNING MOISTURE. EXTENDED-RANGE
GUIDANCE HINTS AT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
D6/MONDAY TO D8/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME - MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/MIDWEST WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR REGION OF AN ORGANIZING
CYCLONE. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION THROUGH
NEXT WEEK IS HIGH, NOTABLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY IN THE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT FORECAST BEYOND D6 SUGGESTS PREDICTABILITY REMAINS TOO
LIMITED TO WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
..MOORE.. 03/25/2026
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