661
ACUS48 KWNS 060835
SWOD48
SPC AC 060834
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT MON APR 06 2026
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
..DISCUSSION
..THURSDAY/DAY 4 TO SATURDAY/DAY 6
FROM THURSDAY TO SATURDAY, MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
U.S. IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. IN RESPONSE, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR A FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS. ON FRIDAY, WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THIS AIRMASS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN SOME
AREAS, BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SUGGESTING A MORE LOCALIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
ON SATURDAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AS MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER PARTS OF WEST TEXAS, WHERE SOME MODELS
HAVE AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR
THIS INSTABILITY AXIS.
..SUNDAY/DAY 7 AND MONDAY/DAY 8
ON SUNDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF A WEST TEXAS DRYLINE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH.
ON MONDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S, WITH AN AXIS OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LOCATED IN THE GREAT PLAINS. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO UPPER MIDWEST. AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE, THERE
IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH. FOR THIS REASON, WILL HOLD OFF ON A THREAT AREA UNTIL THE
MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT.
..BROYLES.. 04/06/2026
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