225
ACUS48 KWNS 180719
SWOD48
SPC AC 180717
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
..DISCUSSION
AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY/D4 INTO SUNDAY/D5, WITH A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT. DURING THE SAME TIME, A STRONGER
BUT LOW-AMPLITUDE FEATURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER, ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHERN/GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE, A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY/D5,
EXTENDING INTO THE OH VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL
INTERACT WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS,
AND CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY/D6. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST
TO BE ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW, AND WOULD LIKELY UNDERCUT
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG IT. MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000
J/KG SEEMS REASONABLE, WHICH WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL SEVERE AT BEST.
FOR THE LATTER DAYS OF THE PERIOD, THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS
PREDICTABLE, HOWEVER, MODELS ON A RUN TO RUN BASIS APPEAR TO BE
TRENDING TOWARD HIGHER HEIGHTS/POSSIBLE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST,
WITH LITTLE TO NO THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS.
..JEWELL.. 03/18/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page