488
ACUS48 KWNS 290758
SWOD48
SPC AC 290757
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
..DISCUSSION
..SUNDAY/DAY 4 TO TUESDAY/DAY 6
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN U.S. FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MOIST
AIRMASS SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM
THE OZARKS AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES BY TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT EACH DAY, ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED
DUE TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE WEAK SIDE. MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS
WOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
..WEDNESDAY/DAY 7 AND THURSDAY/DAY 8
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES, UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE WESTERLY. THE PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
THE CENTRAL U.S. WHERE POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM IN PROXIMITY TO THESE
POCKETS OF INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. BUT
THE MESOSCALE DETAILS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE UNPREDICTABLE AT
THIS EXTENDED RANGE. FOR THIS REASON, A SEVERE THREAT AREA CAN NOT
BE ADDED AT THIS TIME.
..BROYLES.. 07/29/2021
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