855
ACUS48 KWNS 210932
SWOD48
SPC AC 210931
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
VALID 241200Z - 011200Z
..DISCUSSION
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES. THE CULPRIT BEING A LARGE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES
SUPPRESSING MOISTURE RETURN. BY LATE TUESDAY (DAY 4), THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE EASTERN GULF, WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, THE QUALITY OF
THE MOISTURE RETURN AND POOR LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS LIMITED, IF ANY,
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL/WASH OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF STATES LATE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY (DAYS 6 AND 7) WITH MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY (DAYS 7 AND 8). THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO/THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. ONCE
AGAIN, CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN AND
POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..MARSH.. 02/21/2026
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