421  
ACUS48 KWNS 290812  
SWOD48  
SPC AC 290811  
 
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0311 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025  
 
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
   
..SUNDAY/DAY 4 AND MONDAY/DAY 5
 
 
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD  
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP  
IN THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH THIS FEATURE STRENGTHENING ON  
MONDAY, AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE,  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, ALLOWING  
FOR MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE  
DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY FROM  
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A  
COLD FRONT INTO THE DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NOT  
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULAR STRONG, THE MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT STRONG  
INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS BY LATE  
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LIKELY WOULD SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL AND  
WIND-DAMAGE THREAT.  
   
..TUESDAY/DAY 6 TO THURSDAY/DAY 8
 
 
ON TUESDAY, THE SHORTWAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE  
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE MID MISSOURI  
VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IN  
ADDITION TO MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND  
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUPERCELLS WOULD BE POSSIBLE, WITH ISOLATED  
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO  
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY. AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE FROM THE 60S TO THE MID 70S F,  
WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH  
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG NEAR THE FRONT,  
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN AREAS  
WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING OCCURS. PREDICTABILITY IS LOW  
CONCERNING WHERE THE GREATER SEVERE THREAT WILL BE.  
 
ON THURSDAY, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST.  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN NORTHEASTWARD INTO  
THE GULF COAST STATES. ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN  
PLACE IN SOME AREAS BY AFTERNOON, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE  
WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT LOCALIZED.  
 
..BROYLES.. 05/29/2025  
 
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