647
ACUS48 KWNS 240849
SWOD48
SPC AC 240847
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT SUN SEP 24 2023
VALID 271200Z - 021200Z
..DISCUSSION
..WEDNESDAY/DAY 4 TO FRIDAY/DAY 6
FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION.
WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
FURTHER WEST, ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE,
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RETURN NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WHERE A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD POTENTIALLY
DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS,
ALONG WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT, WOULD BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES.
..SATURDAY/DAY 7 AND SUNDAY/DAY 8
FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AS MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. MODEL FORECASTS
SUGGEST THAT A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ON SUNDAY AS
WELL. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL PROBABLY BE WEAK ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
STILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IF A BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, AS
IS SUGGESTED BY SOME SOLUTIONS. A SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED. AT THIS TIME, PREDICTABILITY IS LOW
CONCERNING ANY POTENTIAL SCENARIO.
..BROYLES.. 09/24/2023
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