528
ACUS48 KWNS 170749
SWOD48
SPC AC 170747
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
..DISCUSSION
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, ENCOURAGING SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND ACCOMPANYING
MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. AS THIS OCCURS, COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THIS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF ENOUGH BUOYANCY/SHEAR
OVERLAP IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO GREAT PLAINS STATES DURING THE
DAYS 5-7 (WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY) TIME FRAME TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT. CALIBRATED AI/ML GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS POTENTIAL, WITH
GUIDANCE TRENDS SHOWING GRADUALLY INCREASING PROBABILITIES. HOWEVER,
GIVEN ANTICIPATED LOW BUOYANCY, THE SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS
QUITE ISOLATED AND LOCALIZED.
..SQUITIERI.. 10/17/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page