916
ACUS48 KWNS 270845
SWOD48
SPC AC 270843
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
VALID 301200Z - 051200Z
..DISCUSSION
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE PREVAILING
SPLIT FLOW WILL EVOLVE IN A MANNER THAT MAINTAINS A BROADLY
CONFLUENT REGIME ACROSS AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WITHIN THE NORTHERN BRANCH, IT APPEARS THAT A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT LOW
WILL FORM WITHIN BROAD TROUGHING OVERSPREADING THE NORTHEAST BY
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND, PERHAPS TRAILED BY ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS
PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SAME TIME, AN INITIALLY PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BECOME SUPPRESSED, AS A MID/UPPER LOW
EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC IS FORCED EASTWARD
INTO AND THROUGH THE CONFLUENT REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE UNITED STATES.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE SHEARING SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE, AND PERHAPS
A TRAILING PERTURBATION, WILL BE PRECEDED BY BROAD COOL SURFACE
RIDGING OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST REGION BY THURSDAY. THE FRONTAL ZONE ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO PROGRESS INTO
THE GULF BASIN AND FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHERE IT IS LIKELY TO LINGER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
DESTABILIZATION MIGHT SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS LATE THIS WORK WEEK
(MOSTLY ABOVE/TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE STALLING FRONTAL ZONE) INTO
FLORIDA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND,
THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER STILL APPEARS RELATIVELY MINOR AT THIS
TIME.
..KERR.. 04/27/2026
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