754
ACUS48 KWNS 150846
SWOD48
SPC AC 150845
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
..DISCUSSION
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS ON DAY 4/TUE WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THROUGH DAY 5/WED AS A
WESTERN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EJECTS OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AROUND DAY 6/THU. GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES AHEAD OF THE EJECTING
UPPER TROUGH. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS VICINITY IN A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. BY DAY 6/THU, THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD AS THIS OCCURS,
AND SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS DAY 5-6/WED-THU IS
UNCERTAIN. LARGE SPREAD (AND POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY) EXISTS
AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE. THE GFS AND ECMWF-AIFS ARE MORE SIMILAR
COMPARED TO THE DYNAMICAL ECMWF, INDICATING A SLOWER EJECTING TROUGH
AND ONLY MODEST SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS UNTIL LATE THURSDAY WHEN THE
LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES.
FURTHERMORE, WHILE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD
NORTHWARD RETURNING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES, FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH EJECTS MORE SLOWLY. AS THE TROUGH EJECTS ON
THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT BECOMES A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT,
BOUNDARY-PARALLEL DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND A NORTHEASTWARD EJECTING
CYCLONE MAY FAVOR A MORE ANAFRONTAL, TRAINING CONVECTION/HEAVY
RAINFALL SCENARIO. WHILE SEVERE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY IS IN PLAY FOR
DAYS 5-6/WED-THU, THESE UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE 15 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
BEYOND DAY 6/THU, MODEL DISPARITY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY AND
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW.
..LEITMAN.. 11/15/2025
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