522
ACUS48 KWNS 260855
SWOD48
SPC AC 260853
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
VALID 291200Z - 031200Z
..DISCUSSION
D4/MONDAY WILL FEATURE CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE STRONG LOW TO
MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INTENSE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST ON CYCLONE
SHOULD OCCLUDE AS A SECONDARY CYCLONE FORMS ALONG COASTAL ME INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THIS TIME
FRAME WITH INDICATIONS OF MINIMAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE TRAILING
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT, AS WELL AS DIMINISHING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT/CONVECTIVE SIGNAL THROUGH THE DAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
PROBABILITIES APPEAR AT OR BELOW 5 PERCENT.
THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS SPREADING ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD YIELD MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL MID-WEEK.
TOWARDS LATE WEEK, RETURN FLOW WILL SUPPORT AIRMASS MODIFICATION
ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE EC-AIFS HINTS AT A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IN THE D8/FRIDAY TIME FRAME, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A
RETURN TO NON-NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..GRAMS.. 12/26/2025
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