783  
ACUS48 KWNS 270843  
SWOD48  
SPC AC 270842  
 
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0342 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2022  
 
VALID 301200Z - 051200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
THE PRIMARY THREAT DURING THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE  
TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT GENERALLY  
MOVES NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, THOUGH CONSIDERABLE  
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING ITS TRACK AT THIS FORECAST RANGE (SEE  
NHC ADVISORIES AND FORECASTS FOR MORE INFORMATION ON IAN). DEPENDING  
ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF IAN'S TRACK, THE PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE  
FROM THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA TO OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS MAY  
BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD, POTENTIALLY BRINGING RICHER LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE INTO COASTAL PORTIONS OF GA/SC/NC. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME  
TORNADO THREAT ON D4/FRIDAY INTO D5/SATURDAY, THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE  
OF THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE  
WEEK, DUE TO WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR AND GENERALLY WEAK  
BUOYANCY.  
 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS  
SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE ORGANIZED SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM THREAT, AS  
SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF IAN IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY  
SUBSTANTIAL RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH AT  
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
..DEAN.. 09/27/2022  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SPC Page Main Text Page