219
ACUS48 KWNS 290932
SWOD48
SPC AC 290930
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
..DISCUSSION
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE ANOTHER
MID-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CONUS THIS UPCOMING
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SURFACE LOW WILL RAPIDLY TRACK FROM THE
SOUTHEAST GULF COAST, NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DAY
4/TUESDAY, SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND THE FL PENINSULA. THEREAFTER, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED STATIC STABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER MOST LOCALES UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BY THIS
POINT, MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION MAY
FOSTER ENOUGH BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. IT IS
PLAUSIBLE THAT STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAIN IN THE DAYS 6-7 (THURSDAY-FRIDAY)
TIME FRAME IF THE MOISTURE CAN BECOME RICH/DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
GREATER BUOYANCY. HOWEVER, THE LACK IN MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT LENDS TOO LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE
INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
..SQUITIERI.. 11/29/2025
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