083
ACUS48 KWNS 260858
SWOD48
SPC AC 260857
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
VALID 291200Z - 041200Z
..DISCUSSION
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED WITHIN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
CONTINUE PIVOTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY MERIDIONAL IN CHARACTER. THE STRONGEST
HEIGHT FALLS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z WITHIN NORTH DAKOTA. TO
THE EAST, AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE. MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GIVEN THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVELS WINDS. STRONG TO EXTREME BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT. WHILE THIS PATTERN DOES SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE MOST
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF CONVECTION THAT
COULD OCCUR LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE 15%
AREA HAS BEEN MAINTAINED THIS CYCLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A AN MCS
TO DEVELOP, BUT MODIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY IN THE COMING DAYS GIVEN
THE MESOSCALE DETAILS THAT WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN WHERE SEVERE
WEATHER ULTIMATELY OCCURS.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD, THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO
CANADA AS THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE BROAD. A LARGE
RESERVOIR OF STRONG TO EXTREME BUOYANCY IS STILL FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. WHILE AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE, THEY WILL BE HIGHLY TIED TO MESOSCALE FEATURES AS LARGER
SCALE FEATURES WILL BECOME MORE NEBULOUS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT,
PREDICTABILITY IS REDUCED.
..WENDT.. 06/26/2026
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