743
ACUS48 KWNS 200832
SWOD48
SPC AC 200830
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
..DISCUSSION
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. UPSLOPE FLOW AMID 30 TO 50 KNOTS MID-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN A SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT, POTENTIALLY ON TUESDAY, AND
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BASED ON
SMALL-SCALE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AND THE PRIOR DAY'S
CONVECTION, WHICH WILL SHIFT THE LOCATION OF THE UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR. THIS RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE
THREAT FOR EACH DAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL AREAS TO BE ADDED LATER.
RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY
NEXT WEEKEND. SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY EXIST THROUGH THIS TIME
AS MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE WITHIN THIS REGION AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WHILE IT IS MOSTLY BEYOND DAY 8, IT IS WORTH NOTHING THAT
DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE, AND AI GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE A STRONG JET
STREAK AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG LEE CYCLONE WOULD
ACCOMPANY THIS WITH STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE TROUGH, BUT
GIVEN THE AGREEMENT IN THIS GENERAL PATTERN CHANGE, A SUBSTANTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SEEMS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND AND
EARLY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
..BENTLEY.. 06/20/2026
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