026
ACUS48 KWNS 250857
SWOD48
SPC AC 250855
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
VALID 281200Z - 031200Z
..DISCUSSION
IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLONE, WHICH MAY BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MIGRATING NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY
12Z TUESDAY, IT APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND INTO THE GULF COAST VICINITY BEFORE
STALLING LATER THIS WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT
THIS WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH THE SOUTHWESTWARD SUPPRESSION OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING, INITIALLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
INFLUENTIAL AS FAR NORTH AS THE GULF COAST AT THE OUTSET OF THIS
PERIOD.
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING, THERE APPEARS A SIMILAR SIGNAL IN BOTH
ECENS AND GEFS RELATED MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE CONCERNING POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. AN EVOLVING PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE TO STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX
THROUGH ARK-LA-MISS VICINITY MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AN UPSCALE
GROWING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER, AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
REGION.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND, THE
LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION MAY PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL CONTINUING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,
PARTICULARLY AS AN INITIALLY NOTABLE SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION,
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-/SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC, PROGRESSES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. HOWEVER, BARRING
MORE SUBSTANTIVE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS UNCLEAR.
..KERR.. 04/25/2026
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