913
ACUS48 KWNS 020856
SWOD48
SPC AC 020855
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2026
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
..DISCUSSION
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO AMPLIFY LESS IN THE
WEST THAN IN PREVIOUS CYCLES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL WINDS TO PERSIST LONGER IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. IN
THE EAST, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY BEFORE CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN THE
REGIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. UPPER RIDGING WILL
STAY WITHIN THE CENTRAL CONUS BEFORE FLATTENING AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. MODERATE TO
STRONG BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH A STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WEST WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING MOISTURE FARTHER NORTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
WHILE PREDICTABILITY IS GENERALLY LOW, AT LEAST LOCALIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND ANY MCVS THAT
MAY BE PRESENT. HIGH PLAINS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. WHERE
GREATER SHEAR/LIFT EXISTS WITH THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, SEVERE
POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE.
..MID-ATLANTIC
WITH THE APPROACH OF MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ON SUNDAY, STORM
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM SATURDAY BOTH ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT AND WITHIN THE BLUE RIDGE. GIVEN A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT
TO SATURDAY, A 15% SEVERE RISK WAS ADDED. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
LIKELY THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
..WENDT.. 07/02/2026
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