935
ACUS48 KWNS 080823
SWOD48
SPC AC 080821
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 AM CDT THU OCT 08 2026
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
..DISCUSSION
ON SUN/D4, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW (PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE) WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS,
AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT AND NORTHWARD
SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR FROM GA/CAROLINAS INTO VA/DELMARVA,
RESULTING IN AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE. SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO EXIST OVER THE REGION, AND THEREFORE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING/DESTABILIZATION IS IN QUESTION. MOST MODELS
SHOW LITTLE IF ANY DAYTIME HEATING. AS SUCH, PREDICTABILITY IS LOW
AT THIS TIME, BUT AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES COULD BE ADDED
IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS THE SCENARIO EVOLVES.
TO THE WEST, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH TROPICAL REMNANTS WILL AFFECT
SOUTHERN CA AND AZ, WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. SUBSTANTIAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING DESTABILIZATION DUE TO INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN, THOUGH SOME SEVERE WIND AND EVEN HAIL POTENTIAL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY HIGHER. THIS AREA
TOO MAY SEE AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS
PREDICTABILITY INCREASES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THROUGH THU/D8, A POTENTIAL WESTERN
TROUGH EJECTION MAY OCCUR INTO THE PLAINS, WITH THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY ON OR AFTER WED/D7 AS MOISTURE RETURN BECOMES MORE
ESTABLISHED WITH UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE FROM TX INTO OK AND
KS. AS SUCH, THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE MONITORED AS THE EVENT NEARS,
AND AS TROUGH TIMING BECOMES MORE PREDICTABLE.
..JEWELL.. 10/08/2026
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