405
ACUS48 KWNS 290841
SWOD48
SPC AC 290839
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
..DISCUSSION
..DAY 4/SATURDAY
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE MID MS INTO LOWER OH
VALLEYS WITH MODEST HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SAME
TRACK AS THE UPPER-AIR SYSTEM, WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS. WHILE WEAKER THAN ON FRIDAY, A
MODEST ENHANCEMENT OF 850-MB WINDS IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS.
MORNING STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER OH INTO LOWER MS
VALLEYS WITHIN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET. THE LONGEVITY AND EXTENT OF EARLY-DAY STORMS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN, BUT WHERE STRONGER HEATING CAN OCCUR, THE PRESENCE OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE
AFTERNOON, FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KT, WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS
PARTS OF KY AND TN WHERE SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO UPDRAFT ROTATION AND SOME TORNADO RISK. OTHERWISE,
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITHIN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE UPSLOPE REGIME.
..DAYS 5 AND 6/SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THE MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A STRONG
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY DISRUPT THE RETURN OF ROBUST BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. NONETHELESS, THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL
SUPPORT SOME SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON MONDAY.
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST ON SUNDAY, AHEAD OF A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND OH AND TN VALLEY.
..DAYS 7 AND 8/TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE 00Z ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A BELT OF MODESTLY ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES,
BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND A FLATTENED RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT, AND
PERHAPS IN AZ IF STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW CAN DEVELOP ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH.
..MEAD.. 07/29/2026
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