029
ACUS48 KWNS 250856
SWOD48
SPC AC 250854
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
VALID 281200Z - 031200Z
..DISCUSSION
..DAY 4/MON - SOUTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST
A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
WILL ADVECT HIGH THETA-E AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO
PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. BROKEN TO SCATTERED CLOUDCOVER WILL
SUPPORT SURFACE HEATING AND STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY ALONG
THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
KANSAS.
THE GREATEST FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE FROM EASTERN
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI, MUCH OF IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY,
STRONG SHEAR, AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT SUPPORTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND
PROFILE SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.
..DAY 5/TUE - SOUTHERN PLAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAY 4 THREAT WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEAST AND BRING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST SOUTH OF THIS FRONT FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK
TO THE OHIO VALLEY. MUCH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT
SHEAR TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE STORM CLUSTERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS.
DAY 6/WED-DAY8/FRI - PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...
A WEAKER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED BY
EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH AND LOCATION OF ANY FRONTAL ZONES. IN
ADDITION, CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EACH DAY OF THE
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT DESTABILIZATION
BY DAY 6-8. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME, BUT THEY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
..BENTLEY.. 04/25/2025
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