096
ACUS48 KWNS 200906
SWOD48
SPC AC 200905
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
..DISCUSSION
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FROM SAT/D4
INTO SUN/D5, WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BROAD BELT OF NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS,
WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT PROPENSITY FOR CYCLONIC HEIGHT CURVATURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY, ESPECIALLY FROM
MON/D6 ONWARD WHEN 60S DEWPOINTS MAY EXTEND FROM EASTERN TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER, NOT UNTIL AROUND TUE NIGHT/D7 DO MOST
MODELS SHOW ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY, AND EVEN THEN IT WILL
LIKELY BE WEAK. AS SUCH, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT FORECAST. HOWEVER, A
FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY AROUND WED/D8 DUE TO
SEVERAL DAYS OF PERSISTENT MOISTENING, ESPECIALLY IF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CAN AMPLIFY WITHIN THE STRONG FLOW REGIME.
..JEWELL.. 11/20/2024
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