069
ACUS48 KWNS 130847
SWOD48
SPC AC 130846
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
..DISCUSSION
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY/D4 ACROSS TEXAS WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARRIVING BY WEDNESDAY/D5.
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BEGIN ON
THURSDAY/D6 AND BEYOND WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THUNDERSTORM
AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
THE ECMWF AND AIFS HAVE A SHARPER MID-LEVEL TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH ON
THURSDAY/D6. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND FARTHER
NORTH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION, SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP BENEATH THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL JET. THIS MAY
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS FROM THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS STRONGER
SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT DEEP INTO THE GULF ON
FRIDAY AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
A LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION (AS SHOWN BY THE GFS AND AIGFS) WOULD NOT
SUPPORT MUCH OF ANY STRONG STORM THREAT ON THURSDAY/D6. HOWEVER, IT
WOULD KEEP LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS TEXAS AND THE LOWER MS
VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN WEAK TO
POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS LINGERING INSTABILITY, A MOSTLY ZONAL
MID-LEVEL PATTERN WOULD NOT SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.
OVERALL, SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. SOME LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY EXIST FROM
THURSDAY/D6 AND BEYOND AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES, BUT
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN MAKE ANY FORECAST FOR TIME OR LOCATION OF ANY POTENTIAL
LOW-END THREAT DIFFICULT.
..BENTLEY.. 12/13/2025
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