057
ACUS48 KWNS 110854
SWOD48
SPC AC 110852
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
..DISCUSSION
..DAY 4/SUNDAY
THE 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH STRONGER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET, WHICH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. ELSEWHERE, A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE
NORTHEAST SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT REGION WITH THE
TRAILING EXTENSION OF THE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE OH AND
TN VALLEYS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
A MUCH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET IS NOW FORECAST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL AID IN GREATER AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION THAN INDICATED IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. WHEN COUPLED
WITH NOTABLY STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR, THE SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, POTENTIALLY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..DAY 5/MONDAY
THE MODELS SUGGEST THE SUNDAY/CENTRAL PLAINS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE MID MS INTO OH VALLEYS WITH AN ASSOCIATED BELT
OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
MID-ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE, THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE
PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR WILL LIE ACROSS TX
AND THE GULF COAST STATES, TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL
WINDS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT. SOME SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT MAY DEVELOP
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT; HOWEVER, THE MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, DUE TO AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE REGIME IN THE
LOW-LEVELS. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL EXIST
IN THAT REGION, SEVERE-WEATHER COVERAGE MAY ONLY BE ISOLATED.
..DAY 6/TUESDAY
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT A
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS, CONTRIBUTING TO OVERALL AMPLIFICATION OF
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE PRIMARY
SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES, TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND MID-LEVEL FLOW. WHILE ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE WEATHER
APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST, THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE-WEATHER EVENT REMAINS IN QUESTION.
..DAYS 7-8/WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THE PROGRESSION OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL
JET STREAK INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH THAT
FEATURE MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY. AT
THE SURFACE, THE ENSEMBLE MEMBER LOW POSITIONS INDICATE CLUSTERING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY, AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. THE RAPID POLEWARD RETURN
OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS SUCH, SOME SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY, AND
PERHAPS OH VALLEY INTO MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY.
..MEAD.. 06/11/2026
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