232
ACUS48 KWNS 160821
SWOD48
SPC AC 160820
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CST WED JAN 16 2019
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
..DISCUSSION
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELS FROM TX ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY/D4, LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM AR ACROSS OH AND TN,
GRADUALLY DEEPENING. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH, MOVING FROM THE
SABINE RIVER ACROSS LA, MS, AND AL DURING THE DAY, WITH LOW 60S F
DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST. LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING WARM
ADVECTION ABOVE A RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER, WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE LOW, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS INTERSPERSED. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK, BUT STRONG,
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY FAVOR A FEW WIND GUSTS WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS MAY OCCUR,
POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FRAME TO INTRODUCE A RISK AREA.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY SUNDAY/D5 AS THE LOW
TRAVELS RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. BY THIS TIME,
INSTABILITY WILL BE EVEN LESS THAN ON THE PREVIOUS DAY, WITH ONLY
LOW SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY AFFECT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY DURING THE D7-D8 PERIOD, BUT INSTABILITY WILL NOT FAVOR ANY
SEVERE THREAT AS THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL BE DRY.
..JEWELL.. 01/16/2019
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