433
ACUS48 KWNS 060856
SWOD48
SPC AC 060855
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT TUE MAY 06 2025
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
..DISCUSSION
LATE THIS WEEK, AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHEAST WILL EVOLVE INTO A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY ON THE
GULF COAST WITH STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING IN THE NORTHEAST.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE WEST AND PLAINS
AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW
NEAR THE GULF, THIS WILL SPUR REPEATED DAYS OF CONVECTION ACROSS
PART OF THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA. IT IS POSSIBLE LOW-END SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY UNTIL LOW/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BECOME POOR. HOWEVER, SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE THREATS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CUTOFF LOW, IT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
EASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE
EAST COAST AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WEST. MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. THAT
SAID, AT LEAST A FEW DAYS WORTH OF OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WESTERN GULF
WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE INITIAL QUALITY OF THAT MOISTURE RETURN. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE INCOMING WESTERN TROUGH
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
..WENDT.. 05/06/2025
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