031
ACUS48 KWNS 260852
SWOD48
SPC AC 260850
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
VALID 291200Z - 041200Z
..DISCUSSION
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL
TROUGHS POISED TO DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY WHILE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, RESULTING
STABLE LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT, ACCOMPANIED BY MOISTURE RETURN
AND AT LEAST SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON A FEW OCCASIONS.
FIRST, A SURFACE LOW WILL RAPIDLY TRANSLATE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES ON DAY 4/SATURDAY, BECOMING DISPLACED FROM THE
MOISTURE AXIS WITH TIME. BEFORE DEPARTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AN
APPRECIABLE FETCH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. IT IS
PLAUSIBLE THAT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THE RAPID DEPARTURE OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL REDUCE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT, WITH STORM COVERAGE
ULTIMATELY IN QUESTION (HENCE NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES BEING
INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME).
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL TROUGHS AMPLIFYING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH MAY
SUPPORT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER, THE DEVELOPMENT,
TRACK, OR EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY UNCLEAR IN THE
GUIDANCE, WARRANTING THE WITHHOLDING OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR
NOW.
..SQUITIERI.. 11/26/2025
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