773
ACUS48 KWNS 040958
SWOD48
SPC AC 040956
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CST WED MAR 04 2026
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
..DISCUSSION
..SATURDAY/DAY 4 AND SUNDAY/DAY 5
ON SATURDAY AT MID-LEVELS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S., AS FLOW REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, OZARKS, MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S F
WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MOIST AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS, UNCERTAINTY IS CONSIDERABLE
CONCERNING THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT. THE CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN TWO
AREAS, WITH ONE BEING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA, AND A SECOND BEING LOCATED IN THE OHIO VALLEY. A
15 PERCENT AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN EITHER OF THESE TWO AREAS IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.
ON SUNDAY, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST. ISOLATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
WILL BE LIMITED WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL LOCALIZED.
..MONDAY/DAY 6 TO WEDNESDAY/DAY 8
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, WHERE THE MODELS SUGGEST MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT HEAT UP SUFFICIENTLY. A SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING WHERE ANY
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE GREATEST.
ON TUESDAY, MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT, MOVING AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AN
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FAVORED SEVERE
THREAT AREA IS EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S., AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. A SEVERE THREAT MAY AGAIN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOMES UNSTABLE. HOWEVER, THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE TIMING OF FEATURES AT THIS
EXTENDED RANGE.
..BROYLES.. 03/04/2026
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