296
ACUS48 KWNS 090900
SWOD48
SPC AC 090858
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT THU APR 09 2026
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
..DISCUSSION
..SUNDAY/DAY 4 TO TUESDAY/DAY 6
ON SUNDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NATION. AT THE SURFACE, A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE LOCATED FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MUCH
OF THIS CORRIDOR IS FORECAST TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY
AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WHERE SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS.
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY. IN RESPONSE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, MODERATE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM NORTH TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AIRMASS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP.
ON TUESDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AS AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WHERE A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL, WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPGRADE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE THREAT AREA, ONCE CONFIDENCE INCREASES
ON THE TIMING OF THE EJECTING TROUGH.
..WEDNESDAY/DAY 7 AND THURSDAY/DAY 8
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. ON WEDNESDAY, AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF MUCH OF THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS THAT
FORM IN AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY COULD HAVE A SEVERE
THREAT. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, AS
THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HOWEVER, MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
TIMING OF THE TROUGH INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD MID WEEK,
SUGGESTING A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE IN THE
PERIOD.
..BROYLES.. 04/09/2026
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