058
ACUS48 KWNS 030752
SWOD48
SPC AC 030750
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 AM CDT SUN MAY 03 2026
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
..DISCUSSION
..DAY 4/WED -- EAST TX TO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEY VICINITY
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE
MID-MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED FROM
THE OH VALLEY TO SOUTHERN AR AND CENTRAL TX. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TX
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY EASTWARD TOWARD AL. MODERATE TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHWARD-SAGGING COLD FRONT. SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES ARE EVIDENT IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER, GIVEN LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT
AND DEEP-LAYER FLOW LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY, IT IS
UNCERTAIN IF DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. NEVERTHELESS, SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL EXPECTED WITH CLUSTERS AND LINEAR SEGMENTS GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.
..DAY 5/THU - SOUTH TX AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTH TX AS
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ACROSS A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HOWEVER, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY BE LIMITED AS
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH FOCUSES WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING ALSO MAY OVERSPREAD
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO.
ADDITIONAL STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC AS THE COLD
FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THAT REGION. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION, AND
CONVECTION COULD BECOME ANAFRONTAL BY THIS TIME.
..DAYS 6-8/FRI-SUN
SPREAD BEINGS TO INCREASE ACROSS MODEL GUIDANCE BY THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH MEAN UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST SEEMS LIKELY TO PERSIST.
THIS TYPICALLY WOULD NOT BE IDEAL FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST GUIDANCE VARIES WIDELY
WITH THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES HOWEVER, AND
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW.
..LEITMAN.. 05/03/2026
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