170
ACUS48 KWNS 310953
SWOD48
SPC AC 310951
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
..DISCUSSION
PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST
STATES, DURING THE MORNING TO AFTERNOON ON D4/SATURDAY. A
LOWER-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS CONSISTENTLY PROGGED TO
DAMPEN AS IT PROGRESSES QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST
GULF. WITH A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE, LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
VEERED. BUT THIS SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR WEAK BUOYANCY TO SPREAD
EAST, EMANATING FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF AND LA. WITH A MORE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL CLOSER TO THE COAST COMPARED TO D3/FRIDAY, AT
LEAST A LEVEL 1-MRGL RISK SHOULD BE WARRANTED. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST SPC-CSU AND NSSL GEFS-BASED ML GUIDANCE WITH OVERLAPPING 5
PERCENT PROBABILITY AREAS.
ALONG COASTAL CA, WHILE RUN-TO-RUN PREDICTABILITY IS POOR, LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS SOME SIGNAL FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND, DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.
THIS APPEARS GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN CA ON D4/SATURDAY,
SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN CA ON D5/SUNDAY. SPATIOTEMPORAL ASPECTS OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JETLETS
RELATIVE TO PROBABLE SCANT/MEAGER BUOYANCY PROFILES WILL BE CRUCIAL
FOR DELINEATING AREAL HIGHLIGHTS IN SHORTER-TERM OUTLOOKS.
OTHERWISE, A COMBINATION OF LOW POTENTIAL/PREDICTABILITY REMAINS
EVIDENT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..GRAMS.. 12/31/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page