730
ACUS48 KWNS 220757
SWOD48
SPC AC 220755
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
..DISCUSSION
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
AND EASTERN U.S. WILL PERSEVERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE AND AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE
PLAINS STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND POINTS
WESTWARD, WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONG MEDIUM-RANGE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE OF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, ENCOURAGING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION BENEATH COOLING
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW A FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY OR
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH AI/ML CALIBRATED GUIDANCE ALSO NOT
DEPICTING A SIGNAL FOR SEVERE, SO PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN WITHHELD
THIS OUTLOOK.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/22/2026
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