135
ACUS48 KWNS 300933
SWOD48
SPC AC 300931
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CST MON DEC 30 2024
VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
..DISCUSSION
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED ON D4/THURSDAY AND
D5/FRIDAY AS AIRMASS OVER THE CONUS REMAINS TOO COLD AND DRY. SOME
AIRMASS MODIFICATION MAY BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
D5/FRIDAY OR EARLY D6/SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER PATTERN TRENDS MORE ZONAL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN, WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AMID THE INCREASING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE PLAINS ON D6/SATURDAY AND
D7/SUNDAY, RESULTING IN POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH THIS RETURN
MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX/OK INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. ALL ASPECTS OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAIN
UNCERTAIN, WITH DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING LARGE RUN-TO-RUN
VARIABILITY AND NOTABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GEFS AND EPS. AS
SUCH, OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL
TRENDS SUGGESTS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY MATERIALIZE LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..MOSIER.. 12/30/2024
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