050
ACUS48 KWNS 140755
SWOD48
SPC AC 140754
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
..DISCUSSION
..DAY 4/MON
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. SOME SEVERE RISK
COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT IMPINGES ON A SEASONALLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HOWEVER, VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MODEST (20-30 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR). THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS COULD
POSE A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY IF
SUFFICIENT CLUSTERING OCCURS GIVEN MODERATE TO STRONG DOWNSTREAM
INSTABILITY. SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT
OUTLOOKS IF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK APPEARS MORE LIKELY.
..DAYS 5-8/TUE-FRI
LOW-AMPLITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN SOME AROUND DAY 5
OR 6/TUE OR WED AS A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH DAY
7/THU. THIS COULD RESULT IN INCREASE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST AS THE
UPPER TROUGHS PIVOT EASTWARD. GIVEN A PRIOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH AT LEAST PARTS OF
TUESDAY, IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMODYNAMIC
RECOVERY WILL EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER FEATURE. DEPENDING ON
TRENDS, SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..LEITMAN.. 08/14/2026
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