862
ACUS48 KWNS 050958
SWOD48
SPC AC 050956
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CST THU FEB 05 2026
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
..DISCUSSION
A LOW-LATITUDE MIDLEVEL LOW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO ON DAYS 4-5/SUNDAY-MONDAY, BEFORE DEVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE
AND EMERGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON DAY 6/TUESDAY. WHILE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE, CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WEAKLY MODIFIED GULF
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL -- ESPECIALLY GIVEN
MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO
CONSOLIDATE AND AMPLIFY, AS A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEST. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FAVOR HIGHER-QUALITY BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY LATE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
..WEINMAN.. 02/05/2026
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