361
ACUS48 KWNS 030954
SWOD48
SPC AC 030952
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2026
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
..DISCUSSION
..FRIDAY/DAY 4 AND SATURDAY/DAY 5
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY, AS AN ASSOCIATED 60 TO 80 KNOT
MID-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE FROM
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO THE WEST OF THE
MOIST AXIS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD AN AXIS OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
MODERATE INSTABILITY, STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL IS FORECAST FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER IN NORTH TEXAS
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI, WHERE A 30 PERCENT CONTOUR HAS BEEN ADDED. A
SEVERE THREAT IS ALSO FORECAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MID
TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHERE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A SEVERE THREAT.
ON SATURDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S., AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
ARK-LA-TEX, MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
DURING THE DAY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM. IT APPEARS THAT A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MOIST SECTOR FROM THE
ARK-LA-TEX NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
..SUNDAY/DAY 6 TO TUESDAY/DAY 8
ON SUNDAY IN THE MID-LEVELS, A 90 TO 110 KNOT JET IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN U.S., AS WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. A FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
FROM THE OZARKS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES, AS MID-LEVEL FLOW
AGAIN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN AREAS THAT
HEAT UP SUFFICIENTLY. ON TUESDAY, MODELS FORECAST A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
U.S. IF THIS SCENARIO WORKS OUT, A GREATER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IS CONSIDERABLE AT THIS RANGE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A RELATIVELY WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE.
..BROYLES.. 03/03/2026
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