856
ACUS48 KWNS 070836
SWOD48
SPC AC 070834
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CST SAT MAR 07 2026
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
..DISCUSSION
..DAYS 4-5/TUE-WED
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID/LOWER MS
AND OH VALLEYS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THIS TIME. STARTING ON TUESDAY, AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST, BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT BEGINS
TO MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A BELT
OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD A LARGE WARM
SECTOR ON TUESDAY. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, ALONG WITH A SECOND SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER IA AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.
THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR A SHARPENING DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHILE A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MO/MID-MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. STRONG ASCENT SHOULD FOCUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES
WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.
THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY DOES
INCREASE, ESPECIALLY WITH NORTH AND EAST EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HOW FAR EAST CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AND HOW MUCH DOWNSTREAM
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR. NEVERTHELESS, A
DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, WHILE STRONG DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADS A MOIST WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE, THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE
ADJUSTED IN COMING DAYS AS DETAILS BECOME BETTER RESOLVED, BUT THE
OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER
DAYS OVER A BROAD AREA.
..DAY 6/THU
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY THURSDAY AS SPREAD AMONG MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE INCREASES QUITE A BIT WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION/TIMING
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD PERSIST/DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BUT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE A 15 PERCENT DELINEATION AT THIS TIME.
BEYOND THURSDAY, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE LOW AS
THE UPPER PATTERN BECOME LOWER AMPLITUDE AND STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S., ALONG WITH GULF
MOISTURE LARGELY REMAINING OFFSHORE BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
..LEITMAN.. 03/07/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page