818
ACUS48 KWNS 080850
SWOD48
SPC AC 080848
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT WED JUL 08 2026
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
..DISCUSSION
THERE REMAINS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE THAT A
PROMINENT MID-LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD FURTHER WHILE DEVELOPING ACROSS
AND NORTHEAST OF THE COLORADO PLATEAU THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSOURI
VALLEY THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITHIN ELONGATING
LARGER SCALE RIDGING. A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY LINGERS CONCERNING THE
EVOLUTION OF LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVELENGTH
DEVELOPMENTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
RIDGING MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
AS A PLUME OF VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR ADVECTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRENGTHENING FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE, IT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO THE INITIATION AND EVOLUTION OF
ORGANIZING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SWATHS OF
DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE, THIS MAY TEND TO
INITIALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, DUE TO SPREAD WITHIN
AND AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUT, IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL POSE A GREATER POTENTIAL IMPACT TO PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND OR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC BY NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
..KERR.. 07/08/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page