120
ACUS48 KWNS 140838
SWOD48
SPC AC 140836
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
..DISCUSSION
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC FLOW FIELD ALOFT ACROSS THE
CONUS. IN GENERAL, BROAD WESTERN U.S. RIDGING WILL BE MAINTAINED,
WHILE TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
WITHIN THIS PATTERN, ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK WOULD LIKELY
BE CONFINED TO A ZONE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS VICINITY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, BENEATH AN ENHANCED BELT OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
WESTERN RIDGE. AS SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FIELD TRAVERSE THE REGION, DAILY EPISODES OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH THIS SAID, NARROWING DOWN MORE SPECIFIC REGIONS -- AND SPECIFIC
DAYS -- WHERE RISK MAY BE GREATER, CANNOT BE ACCOMPLISHED WITH
SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE SMALL-SCALE NATURE OF THE FORCING
MECHANISMS. THEREFORE, LOW PREDICTABILITY PRECLUDES DELINEATION OF
ANY RISK AREAS THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 08/14/2020
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