522
ACUS48 KWNS 040901
SWOD48
SPC AC 040900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SUN JUN 04 2023
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
..DISCUSSION
A QUASI-OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD REMAIN PROMINENT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH A WEAK UPPER
LOW REMAINING OVER CA AND THE GREAT BASIN. A SEPARATE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES.
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE, A BELT OF MODESTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON BOTH
DAY 4/WEDNESDAY AND DAY 5/THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE EAST OF A WEAK SURFACE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE. HOWEVER, A
MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EPISODE CURRENTLY APPEARS
UNLIKELY FOR EITHER DAY, AS WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND MARGINAL
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST.
BY DAY 6/FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS
BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING A SOUTHERN-STREAM
UPPER TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND EJECTING FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD SHARPEN IN RESPONSE, AND RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE WARM SECTOR MAY REMAIN MOSTLY CAPPED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ON DAY 7/SATURDAY AND DAY 8/SUNDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS EJECTS OVER THIS REGION. WHILE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
CURRENTLY EXISTS TO INTRODUCE 15% SEVERE AREAS AT THIS EXTENDED TIME
FRAME, STRONG TO VERY STRONG FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY
INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND.
..GLEASON.. 06/04/2023
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