608  
ACUS48 KWNS 241001  
SWOD48  
SPC AC 241000  
 
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0400 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
VALID 271200Z - 031200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
   
..TUESDAY/DAY 4 AND WEDNESDAY/DAY 5
 
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. ON  
TUESDAY, AS AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE ADVECTION, AHEAD OF  
A COLD FRONT, WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX  
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. IN SPITE OF ABUNDANT  
CLOUD COVER, SOME DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MOIST  
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE ECMWF HAS MLCAPE GENERALLY PEAKING IN  
THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE ALONG PARTS OF THE MOIST AXIS BY  
AFTERNOON. AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE  
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED FROM  
THE OZARKS NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WIND-DAMAGE, AND  
PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS AND/OR THE  
STRONGER BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.  
 
THE FRONT IS TIMED TO BE IN FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY AND FAR NORTHWEST  
TENNESSEE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AT THAT TIME, MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS  
COULD BE ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL  
FLOW IN PLACE, ALONG WITH FOCUSED BANDS OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, THE MORE  
ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE.  
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY, MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE  
THREAT NEAR MINIMUM HEATING. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT  
APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING A 15 PERCENT CONTOUR IN  
PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY/DAY 5 FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI,  
NORTHERN ALABAMA NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. THE THREAT AHEAD  
OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON, AS  
THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT.  
   
..THURSDAY/DAY 6 TO SATURDAY/DAY 8
 
 
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE  
EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE  
NEGATIVE FACTORS CONCERNING A SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER, SOME POTENTIAL  
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF  
COAST, ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MOIST SECTOR. A POTENTIAL FOR  
STRONG STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST COULD CONTINUE INTO  
SATURDAY, ALONG AND NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MOIST SECTOR.  
 
..BROYLES.. 02/24/2024  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SPC Page Main Text Page