310
ACUS48 KWNS 150755
SWOD48
SPC AC 150753
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
..DISCUSSION
..DAY 4/SAT - OHIO VALLEY
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY
DOWNSTREAM CLOUD COVER WITHIN A STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
REGIME AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM LOWER MI INTO IN/IL.
NEVERTHELESS, STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW (40-60 KT IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER) WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION EVEN AMID WEAK
INSTABILITY. AS SUCH, A DAMAGING WIND GUST RISK WILL ACCOMPANY
LINEAR CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY INTO
EVENING.
..DAYS 5-6/SUN-MON
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE DAY 4
PERIOD WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.
..DAYS 7-8/TUE-WED
AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS, AND STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS WESTERN
TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME, OR IF UPPER
RIDGING WILL BE MAINTAINED. IF THE TROUGH EJECTS, SEVERE POTENTIAL
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, THOUGH PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..LEITMAN.. 04/15/2026
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