235
ACUS48 KWNS 040846
SWOD48
SPC AC 040844
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT SAT APR 04 2026
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
..DISCUSSION
..TUESDAY/DAY 4 AND WEDNESDAY/DAY 5
A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED DRY AND
COOL AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN MOST AREAS.
..THURSDAY/DAY 6 TO SATURDAY/DAY 8
ON THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND STALL, AS MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO SETUP OVER WEST TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ALONG PARTS OF THE FRONT AND TO THE EAST
OF THE DRYLINE. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DISTRIBUTION OF INSTABILITY, WITH SOME SUGGESTING THAT INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. THIS WOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT
MARGINAL IN MOST AREAS.
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO
BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF TEXAS, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, WHERE THE MODELS HAVE MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE,
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING MAGNITUDE AND SPACING IS SUBSTANTIAL.
..BROYLES.. 04/04/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page