029  
ACUS48 KWNS 250856  
SWOD48  
SPC AC 250854  
 
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0354 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025  
 
VALID 281200Z - 031200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
   
..DAY 4/MON - SOUTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST
 
 
A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM  
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, A  
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE  
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW  
WILL ADVECT HIGH THETA-E AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO  
PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. BROKEN TO SCATTERED CLOUDCOVER WILL  
SUPPORT SURFACE HEATING AND STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE WARM  
SECTOR FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY ALONG  
THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO  
KANSAS.  
 
THE GREATEST FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE FROM EASTERN  
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI, MUCH OF IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN  
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY,  
STRONG SHEAR, AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT SUPPORTS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND  
PROFILE SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS  
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.  
   
..DAY 5/TUE - SOUTHERN PLAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
 
 
THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAY 4 THREAT WILL CONTINUE  
NORTHEAST AND BRING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG  
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST SOUTH OF THIS FRONT FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK  
TO THE OHIO VALLEY. MUCH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT  
SHEAR TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE STORM CLUSTERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW  
SUPERCELLS.  
 
DAY 6/WED-DAY8/FRI - PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE  
SOUTHEAST...  
A WEAKER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED BY  
EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE  
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH AND LOCATION OF ANY FRONTAL ZONES. IN  
ADDITION, CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EACH DAY OF THE  
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT DESTABILIZATION  
BY DAY 6-8. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD  
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME, BUT THEY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED  
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
 
..BENTLEY.. 04/25/2025  
 
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