524
ACUS48 KWNS 240947
SWOD48
SPC AC 240946
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
VALID 271200Z - 041200Z
..DISCUSSION
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE ATMOSPHERE UNDERGOES A PATTERN CHANGE.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING TROUGH, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST ON FRIDAY (DAY 4), LARGELY CONFINING APPRECIABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE GULF. THE FRONT REMAINS LOOSELY IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND (SUNDAY -- DAY 6) WHEN IT WASHES OUT AND
REDEVELOPS FARTHER NORTH. THIS OCCURS COINCIDENT WITH A TRANSITION
OF THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN FROM A SINGLE BELT OF BROADLY NORTHWEST
FLOW TO A SPLIT FLOW REGIME (RIDGE OVER TROUGH).
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (DAYS 7 AND 8) AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE US WHILE A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS
AND THEN OPENS UP BENEATH THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE
POSITION AND EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD PLACE MODEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE RESULTING HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE PLAINS' LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT.
ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION, CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH
THE FINER DETAILS, SUCH AS QUALITY AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE RETURN, TIMING OF SPECIFIC FEATURE EVOLUTION, AND RESULTING
PLACEMENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL -- INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ANY EVENT, THE OVERALL RESULTING PATTERN AND PATTERN RECOGNITION
FAVORS AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM AND PERHAPS SEVERE POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
..MARSH.. 02/24/2026
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