120  
ACUS48 KWNS 140838  
SWOD48  
SPC AC 140836  
 
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0336 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020  
 
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH  
THE PERIOD, WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC FLOW FIELD ALOFT ACROSS THE  
CONUS. IN GENERAL, BROAD WESTERN U.S. RIDGING WILL BE MAINTAINED,  
WHILE TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN STATES.  
 
WITHIN THIS PATTERN, ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK WOULD LIKELY  
BE CONFINED TO A ZONE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS VICINITY  
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, BENEATH AN ENHANCED BELT OF  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE  
WESTERN RIDGE. AS SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FIELD TRAVERSE THE REGION, DAILY EPISODES OF  
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.  
 
WITH THIS SAID, NARROWING DOWN MORE SPECIFIC REGIONS -- AND SPECIFIC  
DAYS -- WHERE RISK MAY BE GREATER, CANNOT BE ACCOMPLISHED WITH  
SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE SMALL-SCALE NATURE OF THE FORCING  
MECHANISMS. THEREFORE, LOW PREDICTABILITY PRECLUDES DELINEATION OF  
ANY RISK AREAS THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.  
 
..GOSS.. 08/14/2020  
 
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