522  
ACUS48 KWNS 040901  
SWOD48  
SPC AC 040900  
 
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0400 AM CDT SUN JUN 04 2023  
 
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
A QUASI-OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS  
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. UPPER RIDGING  
SHOULD REMAIN PROMINENT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH A WEAK UPPER  
LOW REMAINING OVER CA AND THE GREAT BASIN. A SEPARATE UPPER  
TROUGH/LOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES.  
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE, A BELT OF MODESTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL  
WESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN  
PLAINS. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON BOTH  
DAY 4/WEDNESDAY AND DAY 5/THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS TO THE EAST OF A WEAK SURFACE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE. HOWEVER, A  
MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EPISODE CURRENTLY APPEARS  
UNLIKELY FOR EITHER DAY, AS WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND MARGINAL  
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST.  
 
BY DAY 6/FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS  
BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING A SOUTHERN-STREAM  
UPPER TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND EJECTING FROM NORTHERN  
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE LEE  
TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD SHARPEN IN RESPONSE, AND RICH LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THERE  
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE WARM SECTOR MAY REMAIN MOSTLY CAPPED  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE  
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ON DAY 7/SATURDAY AND DAY 8/SUNDAY ACROSS  
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE  
WESTERN CONUS EJECTS OVER THIS REGION. WHILE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY  
CURRENTLY EXISTS TO INTRODUCE 15% SEVERE AREAS AT THIS EXTENDED TIME  
FRAME, STRONG TO VERY STRONG FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT  
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY  
INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
..GLEASON.. 06/04/2023  
 
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