716
ACUS48 KWNS 260753
SWOD48
SPC AC 260750
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
VALID 291200Z - 031200Z
..DISCUSSION
A LOW-AMPLITUDE AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS ON DAY 4/THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, A WEAK
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE MID-MS VALLEY VICINITY. MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, RESULTING IN WEAK
DESTABILIZATION. THE EJECTING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TX/OK INTO THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY VICINITY, THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS LOW.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS
THE MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY 6-7/SATURDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD. THIS WILL
BRING CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CONUS, BUT
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW DUE TO A MODEST THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. AS THIS WESTERN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY, ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF ANY STRONGER
SURFACE CYCLONE. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY IS LOW VIA LARGE SPREAD
AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE ON DAY 8/MONDAY, PRECLUDING SEVERE
DELINEATION AT THIS TIME.
..LEITMAN.. 10/26/2026
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