783
ACUS48 KWNS 270843
SWOD48
SPC AC 270842
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2022
VALID 301200Z - 051200Z
..DISCUSSION
THE PRIMARY THREAT DURING THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT GENERALLY
MOVES NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, THOUGH CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING ITS TRACK AT THIS FORECAST RANGE (SEE
NHC ADVISORIES AND FORECASTS FOR MORE INFORMATION ON IAN). DEPENDING
ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF IAN'S TRACK, THE PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE
FROM THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA TO OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS MAY
BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD, POTENTIALLY BRINGING RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO COASTAL PORTIONS OF GA/SC/NC. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
TORNADO THREAT ON D4/FRIDAY INTO D5/SATURDAY, THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE
WEEK, DUE TO WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR AND GENERALLY WEAK
BUOYANCY.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS
SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE ORGANIZED SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM THREAT, AS
SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF IAN IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY
SUBSTANTIAL RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..DEAN.. 09/27/2022
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