067
FNUS21 KWNS 041640
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT MON MAY 04 2026
VALID 041700Z - 051200Z
..MORNING UPDATE
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ELEVATED RISK AREA. CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY PORTRAYS HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO DETER
DEEPER MIXING, MAINTAINING MARGINAL RH ACROSS THE UPPERMOST HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER, RH IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN OK WHERE CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT 15-30 PERCENT
VALUES STEADILY DECREASING.
PRESENTLY, A COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING ACROSS NORTHERN NE WITH
TRAILING NORTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, ENHANCING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NE, WESTERN KS AND EASTERN CO. RECENT RAINFALL, A SLIGHT
TRANSITION TO GREEN UP, AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT MAY
ALLEVIATE BROADER FIRE CONCERNS SHOULD ANY IGNITIONS OCCUR. HOWEVER,
AREAS WHERE FUELS REMAIN DRY, A WEST-NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WITH
SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COULD
TEMPORARILY EXACERBATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEFORE APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL ARRIVES.
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 05/04/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0136 AM CDT MON MAY 04 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AS IT
MERGES WITH A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM SOUTH OF A SECOND
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN US AND SOUTHERN CANADA. ENHANCED
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND OVER
THE PLAINS DEEPENING A LEE CYCLONE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ELEVATED
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
BENEATH THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW, A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TRAILING THE LOW, A
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SERVE AS THE EASTERN TERMINUS OF DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NM AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.
WARM TEMPERATURES WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND 15-20 PERCENT
RH WILL OVERLAP A CONFINED REGION OF DRY FUELS ACROSS TX/OK. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERAL HOURS OF ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT
DRYLINE POSITIONING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
ALSO POSSIBLE SUGGESTING SOME PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE ELEVATED PROBABILITIES.
..NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST
GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER, COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP RH MINIMUMS ABOVE 35%. STILL, SOME POCKETS OF
DRIER AIR COULD SUPPORT BRIEF LOCALIZED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS IN
POCKETS OF SUPPORTIVE FUELS GIVEN STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH.
..MID ATLANTIC
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND PIEDMONT.
A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA COULD SUPPORT GUSTS OF 10-15 MPH. WHILE RH WILL
BE BELOW 40%, AREA FUELS REMAINS RATHER LIMITED OWING TO RECENT
PRECIPITATION. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE BROADER FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS,
THOUGH SOME LOCALIZED RISK REMAINS POSSIBLE.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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