221
FNUS21 KWNS 041654
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1053 AM CST TUE NOV 04 2025
VALID 041700Z - 051200Z
..MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR (RH
VALUES IN THE 20-25% RANGE) NORTHEAST OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL IN/NORTHERN IL TO EASTERN IA. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ACCOMPANYING THE
NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER, THE ARRIVAL OF
HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHER RH VALUES, KEEPING HIGHER WINDS AND
LOWER RH DISSOCIATED, LIMITING FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH
MODEST WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN WY/NE PANHANDLE
VICINITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT LEE CLOUDINESS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN WY COULD DELAY ONSET OF HIGHER WINDS VIA BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING BUT SEVERAL HOURS OF WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH RH FALLING
TO AS LOW AS 10% ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PROMOTE ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH, A
SIMILAR BUT MORE CONFINED CORRIDOR OF BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NM/TX PANHANDLE AS WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE 15-20 MPH AND RH FALLS TO AROUND 15% THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, MARGINAL FUEL DRYNESS (ERC VALUES BELOW THE 50TH
PERCENTILE) SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL.
..WILLIAMS.. 11/04/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1130 PM CST MON NOV 03 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
U.S. TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A MODEST LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING TO THE EAST AND STRONG MID-LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE TERRAIN, 15-25 MPH WINDS (HIGHER NEAR THE TERRAIN)
WILL BE PROBABLE BY THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PROMOTE
15-20% RH IN PARTS OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. A FEW
HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED.
..PORTIONS OF LOWER GREAT LAKES
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR IS EVIDENT IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS MONDAY EVENING. AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, A BELT OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. HOW LOW
RH WILL FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON IS NOT CERTAIN. MID/UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HOW MUCH SURFACE HEATING WILL
OCCUR. RH COULD FALL AS LOW AS AROUND 20% FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA/OHIO. DRY FUELS IN THE REGION WOULD
SUPPORT SOME LEVEL OF FIRE CONCERNS. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE DRIER AIR WHERE 10-15 MPH IS
EXPECTED. LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
A MODEST LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF 10-15
MPH WINDS (PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER) WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN PARTS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS. RH OF
AROUND 20% CAN BE EXPECTED. POCKETS OF FINE FUELS MAY BE MODESTLY
RECEPTIVE TO FIRE SPREAD DUE TO RECENT LACK OF RAINFALL AND A HARD
FREEZE. BRIEF, LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WHERE THE MOST
FAVORABLE WINDS/RH ALIGN.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page