372
FNUS21 KWNS 061538
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0938 AM CST FRI MAR 06 2026
VALID 061700Z - 071200Z
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SOUTHWEST
KANSAS...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS...
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE ELEVATED/CRITICAL AREAS WERE EXPANDED
SLIGHTLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WAS TO
ACCOMMODATE AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE DRYLINE SHOWN WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON ITS CURRENT PLACEMENT
AND ORIENTATION AS OF THIS MORNING. SMALL PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CRITICAL AREA WERE ALSO EXCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT ISOLATED
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS, SO FAR, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT CONSTRAINING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE ELEVATED/CRITICAL AREAS TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DID SHOW AREAS OF STRATUS
AND FOG IN THE VICINITY OF THE EXPANDED AREA. HOWEVER, AS OF
DAYBREAK, THOSE CONDITIONS WERE ALREADY BEGINNING TO RETREAT
EASTWARD. ADDITIONALLY, CLEAR SKIES, LOW SURFACE RHS NEAR 15-25%,
AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ARE BEING
OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THUS, CONDITIONS
WITHIN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL AREA ARE ALREADY BEGINNING
TO TAKE SHAPE.
..STEARNS/NAUSLAR.. 03/06/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0127 AM CST FRI MAR 06 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
SPLIT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CONUS THROUGH TODAY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WHILE A CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPS OVER ARIZONA. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG LEE SURFACE CYCLONE
WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM COLORADO INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
BEFORE TRANSITIONING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND VERY LOW RH VALUES
BEHIND A TRAILING DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN PROGRESS SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD.
...EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TODAY. AIDED BY
A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE
LOW, THIS MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 MPH OVERLAPPING VERY LOW RH VALUES OF 10-15%
BEHIND AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING DRYLINE. WITH RECEPTIVE FUELS ACROSS
THE REGION, THESE CONDITIONS WILL YIELD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES AND INTO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE TWO AREAS OF RECENT HEAVIER RAINFALL
ARE EXPECTED TO LOCALLY REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WITHIN THE
CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS, A 40+ KT 700 MB JET OVERLAPPING STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR A CORRIDOR OF LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS
(SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH SPORADIC GUSTS TO 35-45
MPH POSSIBLE) FROM EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL OVERLAP LOW RH VALUES OF
10-20%, SUPPORTING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM THE TEXAS
BIG BEND NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD, BRINGING A
WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 2-3 HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEFORE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RH FILTER IN.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN EXTENTS
OF ELEVATED/CRITICAL CONDITIONS DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
AS WELL AS THE MOVEMENT OF THE DRYLINE, RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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