331
FNUS21 KWNS 141703
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
VALID 141700Z - 151200Z
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE DRAWN ELEVATED AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDER
AREAS. AS WAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, VEGETATION GREEN UP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS SUBDUING OTHERWISE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN MONTANA WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO EXCEED 30 MPH ONCE AGAIN TODAY. SIMILARLY, ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE GREENNESS GRADIENT (GENERALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TX PANHANDLE) DOMINATES THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE
ELEVATED AREA. THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE MAINTAINS LIMITED
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AMID A DRY SUB-CLOUD ENVIRONMENT OVER
MUCH OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. THUS, THE THREAT OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL
CONTINUING AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET OVER THE EASTERN
TX PANHANDLE.
..STEARNS.. 05/14/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1209 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER MID-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE UPPER RIDGING SLIDES
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH OF A CENTRAL CANADIAN SURFACE LOW WILL PERMIT A BREEZY POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. FARTHER SOUTH, TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS EAST OF THE CO/NM HIGHER TERRAIN WILL PROMOTE
ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DEEP LAYER MIXING. INCREASING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SUBTLE FORCING ASSOCIATING WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE COULD AID IN HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
STRONG POST FRONTAL WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND RH OF 20-30%
AMID DRY FUELS WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. FARTHER WEST, MORE PRONOUNCED DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW
WILL YIELD SUSTAINED WEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MT DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. LIMITED RH REDUCTIONS,
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, AND GREEN UP ACROSS
SOUTHERN MT SHOULD MITIGATE AN OTHERWISE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
ENVIRONMENT. AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT, STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH (GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH) WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IA INTO WESTERN MN.
DESPITE MODEST RH VALUES OF 25-35%, A MIXED FUELSCAPE OF PARTIAL
GREEN UP AND SPORADIC DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG WINDS
COULD SUPPORT FIRE SPREAD. THUS, ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED TO ENCOMPASS THIS THREAT.
..SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OF 15-20 MPH AMID RH OF 15-20% WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FROM FAR SOUTHEASTERN AZ INTO MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN NM AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE DELAYED GREEN UP HAS
ALLOWED FUELS TO REMAIN RECEPTIVE. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION ALONGSIDE AFTERNOON HEATING
AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND ADJACENT CO/KS AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT PWATS OF 0.6-0.8" WITH A
PROMINENT DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER UP TO 3 KM. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE, ALLOWING THE THREAT OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS TO EVOLVE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SOME LIGHTNING
IGNITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN EXISTING DRY FUELS WHERE AN ISODRYT RISK
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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