051
FNUS21 KWNS 171604
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
VALID 171700Z - 181200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS...AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
IN CALIFORNIA...
THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TODAY AS THE THREAT OF
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO EXPAND THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NM, FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CO, AND SOUTHWESTERN KS. THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE PLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE REMAINS AS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE. THAT BEING SAID, THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS JUST BEHIND THE DRYLINE, SO
THE RISK GRADIENT WAS TIGHTENED ACROSS THIS AREA. FARTHER WEST, THE
EXISTING ELEVATED AREA WAS EXPANDED, OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UT
AND NORTHERN AZ, THOUGH FUELS ARE COMPARATIVELY LESS RECEPTIVE. EVEN
SO, FIRE WEATHER RISK AMID WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
COMBINED WITH 10-20% MINIMUM RHS OVER THESE REGIONS IS WORTH
HIGHLIGHTING. ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT WINDS TO QUICKLY TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE COUNTRY, WHICH
WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN UT AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.
..STEARNS.. 05/17/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0134 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
***DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY***
A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT
APPRECIABLE SURFACE LOW INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE ROCKIES, IN
TANDEM WITH GRADIENT WESTERLY FLOW, WILL SUPPORT VERY DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. WITH ABOVE AVERAGE FUEL LOADING OF VERY DRY GRASSES AND
HOLDOVERS FROM PREVIOUS FIRES ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS, THE VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE A
VOLATILE SETUP FOR RAPID, DANGEROUS WILDFIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
A DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN OKLAHOMA
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED
TO MIX UP TO AT LEAST 600 MB BEHIND THE DRYLINE, FROM CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AREAS. WHILE
GRADIENT WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY,
DOWNWARD MIXING OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IN THE POST-DRYLINE
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 25-30 MPH SUSTAINED
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AMID 5-15 PERCENT RH. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO TO THE IMMEDIATE
DRYLINE VICINITY, WHERE CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED.
EXTREMELY CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO WHERE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SHOWS THE LONGEST TERM OVERLAP OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
WINDS/RH WITH LOADED FUELS EXCEEDING THE 95TH PERCENTILE. WHILE THE
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS MAY FALL JUST SHY OF TYPICAL EXTREMELY
CRITICAL CRITERIA, THE COMBINATION OF FUEL LOADING AND POTENTIAL
PRE-EXISTING HOLDOVERS OF EARLIER FIRE STARTS SUGGESTS THAT A
VOLATILE LANDSCAPE WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT DANGEROUS
WILDFIRE-SPREAD POTENTIAL.
..CALIFORNIA CENTRAL VALLEY REGION
DEEP-LAYER NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL
VALLEY REGION AS A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVERSPREADS CALIFORNIA ON
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS EXCEEDING 25 MPH IN SPOTS AS RH
DIPS TO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE. GIVEN DRY FUELS, CRITICAL
HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY REGION.
BROADER ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS EXTEND INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY,
WHERE 15+ MPH SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OVERLAP WITH 15-20
PERCENT RH.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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