030
FNUS21 KWNS 081649
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2025
VALID 081700Z - 091200Z
THE ELEVATED AREA WAS EXPANDED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
HIGH-RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE FORECAST GUIDANCE. RH HAS ALREADY DROPPED
TO 15-30% IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH WIND GUSTS OF 15-30 MPH. IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, RH IS GENERALLY 25-35% WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH GUSTING 25-35 MPH. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
AN ISODRYT AREA WAS ADDED AS WELL IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS
A 10-30% CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH THE AREA
ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LIKELY A GENESIS ZONE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.5-0.8", STORM MOTIONS OF 10-25 MPH, AND CLOUD
BASES OF ~3KM AGL WILL HELP LIMIT WETTING RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH SOME
TRAINING COULD BE POSSIBLE BEFORE WINDS ALOFT TURN MORE WESTERLY.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
..NAUSLAR.. 05/08/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1250 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. 05 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES, WHICH
WILL TRACK TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ACROSS ND AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT OUT OF MT AND SASKATCHEWAN. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
BY EARLY EVENING, THERE SHOULD BE A 3-4 HOUR WIND DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S, RH VALUES IN
THE LOW 20S, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH SPRING GREEN UP IS
UNDERWAY, DEAD GRASSES REMAIN ACROSS THE FUEL LANDSCAPE AND ARE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO CARRY LARGE FIRES (AS EVIDENCED BY A COUPLE OF
LARGE FIRES IN RECENT DAYS ACROSS WESTERN ND). SIMILAR WIND/RH
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE MT/CANADIAN BORDER WITHIN THE
POST-FRONTAL REGIME, BUT WETTING RAINFALL OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS
HAS LIKELY MITIGATED FUEL STATUS FOR THE TIME BEING. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY, WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES AND WEAK GRADIENT WINDS
WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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