942
FNUS21 KWNS 141452
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0851 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
VALID 141700Z - 151200Z
NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
..WENDT.. 01/14/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0208 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT MERGES WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN US. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AS A
SURFACE OLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL US.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER
PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHEAST. THIS, AND
PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
..CENTRAL TX
AS STRONG TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US, A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH TX. ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT, A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DRIVE NORTH WINDS
OF 20-30 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH
RH REDUCTIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 30% WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD, THE STRONG WINDS AND DRY FINE FUELS SHOULD
STILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK ACROSS CENTRAL TX.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOME WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT AS THE PRIMARY
FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND SOUTH TX. DRIER SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
AFTERNOON RH MINIMUMS NEAR 20-25%. WHILE THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ILL TIMED, THE LOWER RH AND DRIER FUELS
SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME FIRE-WEATHER RISK INTO SOUTH TX THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. THE ELEVATED AREA WAS
EXPANDED TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER FOR A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ELEVATED
CONDITIONS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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