824
FNUS21 KWNS 120629
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
..SYNOPSIS
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH MORE LOCAL CONCERNS MAY
EMERGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OREGON.
..CENTRAL TO EASTERN ARIZONA
A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. AN EVENING 00Z SOUNDING FROM ABQ
SAMPLED A VERY DEEP, DRY BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND PWAT VALUES NEAR 0.5 INCH. THIS DRY, BUT WEAKLY
BUOYANT, THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE YIELDED A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION YESTERDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND
SHOULD POSE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN OVER AREAS WITH RECEPTIVE FUELS.
DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST INTO WESTERN NM, BUT
RECENT RAINFALL AND IMPROVED FUELS SHOULD MITIGATE THE FIRE RISK.
..OREGON
A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE IS NOTED IN EARLY-MORNING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL MIGRATE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERSPREAD THE CASCADES THROUGH PEAK HEATING.
THE ASSOCIATED WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG,
BUT WILL STILL INDUCE A DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME ON THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING/DRYING, COUPLED WITH PEAK
HEATING AND FULL INSOLATION, WILL PROMOTE RH REDUCTIONS BETWEEN
10-20%. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 MPH APPEAR MOST PROBABLE BASED
ON LATEST ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS, BUT GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH
(ESPECIALLY WIND-PRONE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE TERRAIN) ARE POSSIBLE.
..MOORE.. 08/12/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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