082  
FNUS21 KWNS 051649  
FWDDY1  
 
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1148 AM CDT SUN OCT 05 2025  
 
VALID 051700Z - 061200Z  
   
..MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES  
 
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND MID-LEVEL JET OVER  
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE SOUTHERLY TO  
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND FIELD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE  
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR  
SKIES SHOULD AID IN MORE EFFICIENT MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT ACROSS  
NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWESTERN IN, RESULTING IN MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS  
AFTERNOON AS LOW AS 20%. OVERLAP OF SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20  
MPH WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ATOP DROUGHT STRESSED FUELS AND  
CURING GRASSES WILL PROMOTE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS  
NORTHERN IL/NORTHWESTERN IN TODAY.  
 
..WILLIAMS.. 10/05/2025  
   
PREV DISCUSSION  
/ISSUED 0158 AM CDT SUN OCT 05 2025/  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
A MATURE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST  
TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY  
FLOW OVERSPREADING THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG LOW IS  
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD NEAR THE CANADIAN  
BORDER. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS WITH WETTING RAINFALL LIKELY ALONG AND BEHIND IT. AHEAD OF  
THE FRONT, CONTINUED WARM/DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF  
THE MIDWEST WHERE ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  
   
..MIDWEST  
 
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE UPPER  
TROUGH, A BROAD AREA OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER  
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. AFTERNOON WINDS OF 15-20 MPH  
WILL BE COMMON AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS MIXED TOWARD THE SURFACE.  
MODEST SURFACE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TRAILING FRONT SHOULD  
MIX AS DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW  
FOR A FEW HOURS OF LOW RH (20-30%) THIS AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF  
EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN IL AND IN. GIVEN THE VERY DRY FUELS, A FEW  
HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY.  
   
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS  
 
ALONG AND EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO EASTERN NM AND WESTERN  
KS. WARM TEMPERATURES AND DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES SHOULD SUPPORT RH  
VALUES BELOW 30% THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE FAVORABLE RH AND  
INCREASE IN WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALLY  
ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS GIVEN INCREASINGLY DRY FINE FUELS.  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
 
 
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