781
FNUS21 KWNS 270733
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
..SYNOPSIS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF DRY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD SURGING COLD FRONT.
...PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL LEAD TO THE
ENHANCEMENT OF LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
STRONG CROSS-TERRAIN PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL YIELD DRY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND LARAMIE RANGE, WITH
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND ISOLATED GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH
EXPECTED (LOCALLY HIGHER IN TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS). DEEP, BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING COUPLED WITH THE DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
FAVOR AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 15-20% RANGE (LOCALLY AS
LOW AS 10%). WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF STRONG, DRY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
PRECEDING D1/FRIDAY, FUELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RECEPTIVE TO FIRE.
GIVEN THESE FACTORS, ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN WYOMING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
..PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
LOWER RH VALUES OF 10-15% ARE LIKELY TO EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS; HOWEVER,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WHERE A BAND OF
MODEST NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT DRY, DOWNSLOPE
WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE SANDIA MANZANO MOUNTAINS. SUSTAINED WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OVERLAP VERY LOW RH
VALUES OF 10-20% FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
WARM, DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, THIS OVERLAP IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
..NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE A STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE WESTERN CORN BELT THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD 20-30 MPH
SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO OVERLAP RH VALUES OF 20-30%. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST,
LIGHTER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OVERLAP RH
OF 20-30% AHEAD OF A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH FROM SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS. GIVEN THAT FUELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ONLY MODESTLY RECEPTIVE ACROSS THE REGION, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED.
..CHALMERS/LYONS.. 02/27/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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