226
FNUS21 KWNS 101633
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
VALID 101700Z - 111200Z
..MORNING UPDATE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK AREA OVER EASTERN UT INTO WESTERN CO.
FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, CURRENT RH OF 30-40 PERCENT
IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED, AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT REDUCES BROADER FIRE
CONCERNS.
FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NM INTO THE CAPROCK AND TX/OK PANHANDLES, A MIX
OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING IGNITIONS AS FUELS REMAIN RECEPTIVE.
HOWEVER, 10-15 KT STORM MOTIONS, INCREASING PWATS OF 0.7-1.0 IN.,
AND THE EXPANDING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING PRECLUDES THE
INTRODUCTION OF A DRY THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM, LOCALLY
ENHANCING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR NEW IGNITIONS AND ONGOING FIRES
FROM YESTERDAY'S LIGHTNING STARTS.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA/NAUSLAR.. 04/10/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0154 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE,
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE BEHIND IT. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, OHIO
RIVER VALLEY, AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS.
..PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN IN CONJUNCTION
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST WILL PROMOTE A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN TODAY. DESPITE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER, MINIMUM RH
VALUES OF 15-20% (LOCALLY DOWN TO 10%) ARE FORECAST DURING PEAK
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PRECONDITIONED, DRYING FUELS FROM
THURSDAY, THIS COMBINATION OF WINDS/RH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH
INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE SHOULD STRONGER SURFACE WINDS OVERLAP WITH LOCALLY LOWER RH
VALUES, BUT THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BRIEF SHOULD
THEY MATERIALIZE. DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND MODESTLY STRONG
MID-LEVEL FLOW (25-35 KTS WITHIN THE 700-500 MB LAYER) WILL ALSO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH ACROSS THE
REGION.
..PORTIONS OF THE MID/UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 10 MPH (WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH) COMBINED WITH
RH VALUES DROPPING TO 30-35% ARE EXPECTED TO OVERLAP A REGION OF
DRYING AND POTENTIALLY RECEPTIVE FUELS FROM NORTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY/SOUTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. WITH ERCS ACROSS THIS REGION APPROACHING
THE 97TH PERCENTILE, THIS OVERLAP OF WINDS/RH MAY SUPPORT A FEW
HOURS OF LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. A
PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS, INCREASING
MOISTURE, AND DECREASING WINDS SPEEDS LATER THIS EVENING, WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT. COUPLED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED WINDS EXCEEDING 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON, ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN WITHHELD AT THIS TIME.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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