802
FNUS21 KWNS 031546
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CDT FRI APR 03 2026
VALID 031700Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO
WESTERN KANSAS...
THE CRITICAL AREAS REMAIN ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
ELEVATED AREA WAS SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES
CRITERIA WILL BE MET THIS AFTERNOON. IN AGREEMENT WITH LOCAL RED
FLAGS, FUELS GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THAT RECENT RAINFALL OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAS HAD LITTLE IMPACT ON FINE
DEAD MOISTURE GOING INTO TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, AREAS NEAR THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS, WHERE FUELS REMAIN EXCEPTIONALLY
DRY, CANNOT BE RULED OUT OF ELEVATED CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
..STEARNS.. 04/03/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0134 AM CDT FRI APR 03 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL, SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COUPLED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE LEE
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL FAVOR STRONG WESTERLY, DOWNSLOPE WINDS
OF 20-25 MPH (WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH)
ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WITH MINIMUM
RH VALUES FORECAST AROUND 10-15% AND RECEPTIVE FUELS ACROSS THE
REGION, THIS WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT RH WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER BEHIND THIS FRONT, WITH
SPOTTY 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERLAPPING RH
BELOW 20%. THIS MAY BRING AN EXTENDED AND/OR ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS INTO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
IN THE LEE OF THE SACRAMENTO/GUADELUPE MOUNTAINS IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS AND WITHIN THE JORNADA DEL MUERTO AND TULAROSA
VALLEY IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WHERE TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY YIELD LOCAL
WIND ENHANCEMENTS.
..PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. SUSTAINED 20-25 MPH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS (LOCALLY HIGHER) ARE FORECAST TO OVERLAP VERY
LOW RH OF 10-15% ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS,
SUPPORTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE BEST OVERLAP OF THESE
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ROYAL GORGE IN COLORADO
(WHERE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS STRONGER WINDS OWING TO TERRAIN
EFFECTS) AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS. WHILE RH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
MORE MARGINAL (15-20%) FARTHER NORTH IN THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE,
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH (WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC GUSTS
TO 35-45 MPH) AMID VERY DRY FUELS SUPPORTED THE INCLUSION OF THIS
AREA IN THE CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS ADJACENT AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OVERLAP LOW
RH OF 10-20%.
..SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO THE LOW/HIGH DESERT OF CALIFORNIA
A LOCALLY STRONG SANTA ANA EVENT WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
SUSTAINED NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH (GUSTS TO 50 MPH)
AND VERY LOW RH VALUES OF 10-15% TRAVERSING SOUTHERN NEVADA, THE
LOW/HIGH DESERT OF CALIFORNIA, AND THE WIND-PRONE AREAS SURROUNDING
THE LOS ANGELES METRO. WHILE ELEVATED LIVE FUEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CONCERNS, THESE CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREAS WITH DRIER FINE
FUELS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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