647
FNUS22 KWNS 161831
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
..AFTERNOON UPDATE
ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE RISK AREAS BASED ON UPDATED
GUIDANCE. HOT, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY PERMIT THE POTENTIAL
EMERGENCE OF LIGHTNING HOLDOVERS FROM DRY THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL DAYS
AGO THROUGHOUT NORTHERN NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN
UTAH/COLORADO. IN ADDITION, NEW/ONGOING FIRE STARTS ACROSS THESE
REGIONS COULD BE FURTHER EXACERBATED AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
PERSIST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 06/16/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0201 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
WITHIN THE BASE OF A BROAD/AMPLIFYING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE NORTHERN CONUS, A BELT OF 60-70-KT MIDLEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. TO THE SOUTH, DIURNAL HEATING OF A DRY
ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF 10-15
PERCENT AFTERNOON RH ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT
BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
AS MODERATE-STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW PERIPHERAL THE PRIMARY JET STREAM
OVERSPREADS THIS DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS, WIDESPREAD 15-20 MPH
SUSTAINED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. THE
COMBINATION OF WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AND THESE BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS WILL
FAVOR A LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A CRITICAL AREA WAS CONSIDERED IN PARTS OF EASTERN UT
INTO WESTERN CO, WHERE 20 MPH SUSTAINED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD OVERLAP 15-20 PERCENT RH AMID DRY FUELS, THOUGH THIS
FAVORABLE OVERLAP APPEARED A BIT LOCALIZED FOR THE UPGRADE AT THIS
TIME.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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