536
FNUS22 KWNS 231954
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
..NO CRITICAL AREAS
..NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
UNDER MODEST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MT SUNDAY. WEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND RH
AS LOW AS 15% IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL
BE TO AREAS WHERE GREEN UP HAS BEEN DELAYED BY DROUGHT, LIMITING A
WIDER FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
..NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN IDAHO
A PLUME OF MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ARCH FROM
THE SIERRA NEVADA TO SOUTHERN ID, EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WY AND THE
CO ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. INCREASING DAYTIME INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH FUELS (INCLUDING ONGOING
GREEN UP) CONTINUE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN POTENTIAL DRY LIGHTING
IGNITIONS FOR SUNDAY. THUS, NO DRY THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS WERE
INTRODUCED FOR THIS UPDATE.
..WILLIAMS.. 05/23/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1252 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION ON D2/SUNDAY, WITH SUBTLE/WEAK TROUGHING ALSO IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL LINGER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND FOUR CORNERS REGIONS. A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
THEN APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH
WEAK TROUGHING ALSO MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE, A QUASI-STATIONARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC, WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND EASTERN CONUS.
SIMILAR TO D1/SATURDAY, WARMING TEMPERATURES UNDER SUBTLE RIDGING
WILL PROMOTE RH REDUCTIONS TO 10-20% ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF A
STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LARGELY LIMIT SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS AND THUS LIMIT BROAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAVORED
TERRAIN/GAP AREAS, HOWEVER. LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MONTANA, ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY
POCKETS OF DRIER FINE FUELS MAY EXIST, WHERE A TIGHTENED SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE LOW MAY
SUPPORT A BRIEF OVERLAP OF SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-15
MPH AND RH VALUES OF 20-25%.
LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES
AHEAD OF A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHER-TERRAIN AREAS OF THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIMITED LIGHTNING POTENTIAL AND
SUB-CRITICAL FUELS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO TEMPER THE OVERALL
LIGHTNING IGNITION THREAT AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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