555
FNUS22 KWNS 071907
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT FRI AUG 07 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE RISK AREAS BASED ON RECENT
GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR EXPANSIVE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, AND
DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA AND GREAT BASIN. SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 08/07/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0218 AM CDT FRI AUG 07 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION OF THE US ON SATURDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS ONCE AGAIN FOUND ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER. A
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, HOWEVER MID-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCEMENT LOOKS MODEST WITH THIS
FEATURE. AT THE SAME TIME, MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST, BRINGING WITH IT CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ATOP A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
.. NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST
MODEST WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. ANOTHER
POTENTIAL AREA OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN OREGON AND MUCH OF WASHINGTON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS DIURNAL HEATING AND THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP VERTICAL MIXING BRING DOWN SOME OF THAT ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLING TO PERHAPS AS LOW AS 5% ACROSS FAVORED AREAS ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 10-15%
ELSEWHERE. GIVEN VERY RECEPTIVE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA, ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
ONE POTENTIAL AREA FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE SIGNIFICANT SMOKE PLUMES POTENTIALLY
LIMITING VERTICAL MIXING, TERRAIN FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS MOUNTAIN
GAPS IN THE CASCADES AND WITHIN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE, MAY SEE PERIODS OF HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS, LEADING TO A
WINDOW OF POTENTIALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
IN THIS SCENARIO, BUT STILL REMAINS TOO LOW TO HIGHLIGHT AT THIS
LEAD TIME.
... CALIFORNIA SIERRAS, SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEVADA, AND MUCH OF UTAH
...
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHERE THE ADVANCING MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. BENEATH THIS MOIST
PLUME, A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
EVAPORATION OF FALLING PRECIPITATION LEADING TO LITTLE, IF ANY,
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. EVAPORATIVE COOLING BENEATH THESE DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY/ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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