124
FNUS22 KWNS 160815
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHWARD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
..SYNOPSIS
A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL TROUGH, ACCOMPANIED BY A NEAR 120 KT 500 MB
JET STREAK, WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW (TUESDAY), SUPPORTING RAPID SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. COMBINED ISALLOBARIC AND
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG
WESTERLY SURFACE WIND FIELD AMID A DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER, ATOP DRY
FUELS, PROMOTING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
BY AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING, AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
STRENGTHEN TO AT LEAST THE 25-35 MPH RANGE AS RH DROPS TO AT LEAST
15-20 PERCENT OVER MOST LOCALES, NECESSITATING CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS.
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS DEPICTS A BELT OF 30+ MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS, OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA, AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN KANSAS, WITH RH
LIKELY DIPPING TO AT LEAST 15 PERCENT. CURRENTLY, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL JET AND ACCOMPANYING CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PASS THIS REGION TO THE SOUTH. AS SUCH, ADEQUATE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE CONDITIONS, AND
WHEN ALSO CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY FUELS IN PLACE (I.E. 90TH
PERCENTILE ERCS), THE ADDITION OF EXTREMELY CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS
APPEARS WARRANTED. EVEN IF RH DOES NOT DIP BELOW 20 PERCENT, THE
COMBINATION OF SUCH STRONG WINDS AND CRITICALLY DRY FUELS SHOULD
COMPENSATE TO SUPPORT VOLATILE WILDFIRE-SPREAD CONDITIONS.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SUSTAINED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE 25-40 MPH RANGE
SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 120 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE JET STREAK,
LENDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE DEGREE OF RH REDUCTIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT RH ONLY DIPPING TO 25-35 PERCENT
OVER EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
EVEN SO, THE STRENGTH OF THE ANTICIPATED SURFACE WIND FIELD ATOP
CURED FUELS DEVOID OF RECENT PRECIPITATION ALONE WARRANTS THE
INTRODUCTION OF AT LEAST CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS. RH SHOULD DROP TO AT
LEAST 20 TO PERHAPS 15 PERCENT ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/OKLAHOMA
BORDER, PROMOTING HIGH-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN FURTHER RH REDUCTIONS OVER THIS AREA,
EXTREMELY CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN FUTURE
OUTLOOKS.
..SQUITIERI.. 02/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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