054
FNUS22 KWNS 151905
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
EXTREME NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON...
..AFTERNOON UPDATE
A CRITICAL RISK AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON. UPDATED HREF GUIDANCE
DEPICTS HIGHER PROBABILITIES (70% OR GREATER) IN AN OVERLAP OF
SUSTAINED WESTERLY 20-25 MPH WINDS (LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH)
AND 10-20% RH AT PEAK HEATING. OWING TO SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, CURING FUELS AND DRY GRASSES
HAVE PROVEN RECEPTIVE AS SEVERAL LARGE FIRES ARE ALREADY OCCURRING
ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN. WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
FURTHER EXACERBATE ANY NEW/ONGOING FIRES, SUPPORTIVE OF CRITICAL
HIGHLIGHTS.
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE ELEVATED
RISK AREA WITH RECENT APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN COLORADO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH PRECEDING DAYS OF MIXED
WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, POTENTIAL LIGHTNING
HOLDOVERS MAY EMERGE AS A RESULT OF DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 06/15/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0144 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST, A
MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING 70-80-KT SPEED MAX WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY.
IN RESPONSE, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN WHILE ADVANCING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
..NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ROBUST MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX, STRONG
DEEP-LAYER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD A WARM/DRY AIR
MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS, COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT, WILL RESULT IN 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
AMID 15-20 PERCENT AFTERNOON RH. GIVEN INCREASINGLY DRY/RECEPTIVE
FUELS ACROSS THE REGION, ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IN PARTICULAR, LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE GAP-FLOW AREAS THROUGH THE CASCADES AND THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. HOWEVER, THESE CONDITIONS APPEAR TOO LOCALIZED
FOR CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
..EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS
DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAKER MIDLEVEL FLOW COMPARED TO AREAS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST, AT LEAST MODERATE MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF BREEZY/GUSTY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS COUPLED WITH SINGLE-DIGIT TO
LOWER-TEENS RH WILL YIELD BROAD ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL FAVOR STRONGER SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS (AROUND 20-25 MPH) OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN WY, WHERE LOCALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS THROUGHOUT THE ELEVATED
AREA.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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