821
FNUS22 KWNS 090713
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CDT FRI OCT 09 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON D2/SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WEST AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN WHERE ANTECEDENT
DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE AIDED IN THE CURING OF FINE FUELS.
..SIERRA FRONT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
DOWNSLOPING INTO THE SIERRA FRONT AND CENTRAL NEVADA, WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH (WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH)
FORECAST AMID RH VALUES DECREASING INTO THE 10-20% RANGE (15-25%
NEAR THE SIERRA FRONT). AN ANTECEDENT PERIOD OF PROLONGED DRY
CONDITIONS HAS AIDED IN THE DRYING OF FINE FUELS ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH ERCS NOTED TO BE AROUND THE 80TH PERCENTILE. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, AND PERHAPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE DIGGING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
...EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND PORTIONS
OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...
PERSISTENT LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A TIGHTENED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 15-25
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WHILE RH
VALUES ARE NOT FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS PRIOR DAYS (GENERALLY
15-25%), THIS WILL BE THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY OF DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WHERE ERCS ARE AROUND THE 80TH TO 90TH
PERCENTILES. THUS, THIS COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FROM EASTERN WYOMING AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.
..CHALMERS.. 10/09/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page