089
FNUS22 KWNS 061853
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT SUN SEP 06 2026
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON DAY 2/MONDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. A SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN
MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS
INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, TIGHTENING A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN OVERLAPPING 30-40 KT 700 MB JET WILL
EMERGE MONDAY MORNING AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON, ENCOURAGING 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE.
DESPITE MODEST RH VALUES OF 15-25% AND SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL-NORTHERN WY, SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF UP
TO 25 MPH WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WHERE FUELS
REMAIN RECEPTIVE. A COLD FRONT WILL SPAN THE WYOMING PLAINS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND REDIRECT WINDS FROM BROADLY
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY, THOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER 06Z. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 09/06/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0152 AM CDT SUN SEP 06 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ON DAY 2/MONDAY,
WITH MODESTLY STRONG, SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS EASTWARD SHIFT
OCCURS, AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA, WITH A SURFACE CYCLONE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT DRY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
..SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN WYOMING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER EASTERN MONTANA/THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT DRY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN WYOMING. WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL OVERLAP VERY LOW RH OF 15-25% AND
RECEPTIVE FUELS (ERCS RANGING FROM THE 80TH TO 95TH PERCENTILES),
SUPPORTING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING AND STRENGTHENING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO PROMOTE
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH (PERHAPS HIGHER IN
FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS AND/OR ALONG EXPOSED AREAS OF HIGHER
ELEVATION). LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SHOULD
MINIMUM RH VALUES FALL BELOW 15%; HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF RH REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM LINGERING CLOUD COVER AS
WELL AS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN CHANCES ON DAY 1/SUNDAY.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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