921
FNUS22 KWNS 191927
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
FAR NORTHEAST NEVADA...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO...AND NORTHERN
UTAH...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHERN WYOMING...WESTERN COLORADO...EASTERN UTAH...NORTHEAST
ARIZONA...AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...
AN AREA OF SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WAS INTRODUCED OVER FAR
NORTHEAST NV, PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ID, AND NORTHERN UT. THE LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED STORM COVERAGE OVER THIS AREA ON DAY
2/SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN LOWER THAN
DESIRABLE FOR PARTICULARLY DRY CONVECTION, THE LIMITED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES (GENERALLY 0.6-0.8 INCH) AND FAST MOVING STORM MOTION
(25-35 KTS) WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOW AND MID
ELEVATIONS OF THE DRAWN AREA. THE EXISTING ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM
RISK WAS ALSO EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL OR AND SOUTHWEST ID. FARTHER EAST OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL ID, INCREASED QPF SHOWN IN FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
PRECLUDED ANY POTENTIAL EXPANSION OVER THAT AREA WHERE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD.
THE EXISTING CRITICAL WIND/RH AREA WAS EXPANDED NORTHWARD TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF WESTERN CO AND SOME OF SOUTHERN WY. THE LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT STRONG WESTERLY WINDS (15-25 MPH) WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN WY ATOP VERY DRY DEAD FUELS AND DRY
(5-15%) CONDITIONS ON DAY 2/SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
..STEARNS.. 06/19/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0205 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A RELATIVELY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL OVERSPREAD THE CONUS
TOMORROW (SATURDAY), WITH MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES POISED TO
TRAVERSE THE ZONAL FLOW, FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS, DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON, PROMOTING
WILDFIRE-SPREAD POTENTIAL. DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER AND TO THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AS A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
OVERSPREADS THIS REGION. FINALLY, DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ALONG THE
CORRIDOR OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW, WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE, WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ATOP DRY
FUELS OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.
..PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
BY AFTERNOON, BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL SUPPORT 15-20 MPH
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AMID 5-15 PERCENT RH ON A
WIDESPREAD BASIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS. ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED WHERE THESE DRY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OVERLAP WITH DRY FUELS. FURTHERMORE,
CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS WERE INCLUDED FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE FOUR
CORNERS, WHERE SOME GUIDANCE DEPICT SURFACE WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH
AMID NEAR SINGLE-DIGIT RH FOR SEVERAL HOURS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
..PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AS A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL
ROCKIES, INCREASED DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AMID MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERTED-V PROFILES ONLY EXTENDING UP TO 700-600 MB, STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT MAY ENCOURAGE FASTER STORM MOTIONS, DECREASING PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS OVER DRY FUEL BEDS EXPERIENCING LIGHTNING STRIKES.
SINCE ERCS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE 80TH PERCENTILE, ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WHERE EFFICIENT
LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
..PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THE PASSAGE OF THE EARLIER MENTIONED EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
ENCOURAGE DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS ATOP THE CASCADES, ALONG WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE LEE OF THE CASCADES. BY AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING, SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS MAY REACH 15 MPH (LOCALLY
HIGHER IN TERRAIN-ENHANCED AREAS) AS RH FALLS INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT
RANGE. GIVEN DRYING FUELS IN THIS REGION, ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WERE
INCLUDED.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page