957
FNUS22 KWNS 101941
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR DAY 2/TUESDAY. PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 08/10/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0157 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
AREAS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME DE-AMPLIFICATION IS
ANTICIPATED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
WEAK LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT WINDS FOR MOST REGIONS. NONETHELESS, SOME
AREAS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
TERRAIN AUGMENTATIONS TO THE WIND FIELD THAT SHOULD SUPPORT BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITHIN A DRY AIR MASS.
..NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING AND
RH MINIMUMS NEAR/BELOW 15% LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE MODEST (10-15 MPH), STRONGER ZONAL FLOW NEAR
THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY MIX TO THE SURFACE AND
MANIFEST AS FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH. STRONGER, BUT MORE
LOCALIZED WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA, THOUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN EASTERN IDAHO, AND ACROSS
EASTERN WY WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL PROMOTE WINDS BETWEEN 15-20
MPH.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
A WEAK LEE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS A RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE. CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOMEWHAT WEAKER WIND SPEEDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY OR IS
EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH RH
MINIMUMS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S EXPECTED, AND WINDS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON AMID DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER
MIXING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER A REGION THAT HAS SEEN SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY, WINDY
WEATHER.
..DRY THUNDERSTORMS
A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS ON TUESDAY. CONTINUED NORTHWARD
ADVECTION OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS SHOULD
YIELD PWAT VALUES GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY FAVOR A MIX OF WET AND
DRY THUNDERSTORMS. DETERMINISTIC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A NARROW
BAND OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS NORTHEAST UT INTO
SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE OVERALL
SIGNAL FROM RECENT CAM ENSEMBLES SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE
FAIRLY SPATIALLY LIMITED. WHILE DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES, CONFIDENCE IN
THE COVERAGE OF PREDOMINANTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS TOO LIMITED
FOR ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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