438
FNUS22 KWNS 101914
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ELEVATED AREA BASED ON
RECENT GUIDANCE. FARTHER EAST, A SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON, TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
ENCOURAGE SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF UP TO 20 MPH AMID 15-25% RH;
HOWEVER, NDVI IMAGERY ANALYSIS PORTRAYS MUCH IMPROVED GREEN-UP OVER
THE LAST 30 DAYS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA, WHERE
THE GREATEST OVERLAP OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THEREFORE,
IMPROVED FUELS PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS, THOUGH POCKETS OF DRIER FINE FUELS MAY SUPPORT LOCALIZED
FIRE CONCERNS. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 07/10/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0124 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENING AND PROGRESSING TOWARDS COASTAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL SERVE TO INTENSIFY THE HEIGHT GRADIENT WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING BENEATH THIS UPPER JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10-15% AND WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE
FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADAS INTO THE
CASCADES, AND THEN EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF IDAHO AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ERCS IN THE 80TH-90TH ANNUAL PERCENTILE RANGE
WITH THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED
FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH PERHAPS LOCALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WHERE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY SUPPORTS ENHANCEMENT OF
SURFACE WIND GUSTS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME FORECAST SIGNAL FOR DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, PARTICULARLY IN THE FAR WESTERN
DAKOTAS. SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH
RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST SPREAD IN JUST HOW DRY THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
WILL BE, AND THE REGION IS IN A GRADIENT OF MORE RECEPTIVE FUELS.
GIVEN THESE FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES, HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN WITHHELD AT
THIS TIME BUT MAY BE CONSIDERED IN ADDITIONAL FORECAST UPDATES.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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