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FNUS22 KWNS 171927
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AGAIN TOMORROW (MONDAY) OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK AREAS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL WAS EXPANDED VERY
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KS AND
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. THESE CHANGES WERE
AGAIN MADE TO TIGHTEN THE RISK GRADIENT NEAR THE ANTICIPATED
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR
AFFECTING THE CURRENT NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DRAWN RISK AREAS, THE
IMPENDING COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL IMPACT ANY SUPPRESSION EFFORTS
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA LATE ON DAY
2/MONDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONT WILL
REACH SOUTHWEST KS AROUND 00Z. THE ELEVATED AREA WAS ALSO EXPANDED
TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE OF NM AND SLIGHTLY
MORE OF SOUTH-CENTRAL CO.
OVER CALIFORNIA, MUCH OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WAS AGAIN ADDED TO AN
ELEVATED RISK AREA FOR DAY 2/MONDAY. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-25 MPH WILL OVERLAP
10-20% RH ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY FROM JUST
AFTER NOON LOCAL TIME THROUGH SUNSET.
..STEARNS.. 05/17/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0203 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
***DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW (MONDAY)***
A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE TO THE CENTRAL CONUS,
ENCOURAGING THE DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA BORDERS, RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF VOLATILE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BEHIND A DRYLINE AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE AND GRADIENT
FLOW IN THE POST-DRYLINE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 20-30
MPH SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AMID 5-10 PERCENT RH,
NECESSITATING CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS AREAS. EXTREMELY CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS
HAVE ALSO BEEN ADDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. HERE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS
STRONGEST IN SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXCEEDING 30 MPH
AMID SINGLE-DIGIT RH. GIVEN LOADED FUELS WITH ERCS EXCEEDING THE
95TH PERCENTILE, ANY NEW OR REJUVENATED FIRE IGNITIONS MAY SPREAD AT
A LIFE THREATENINGLY RAPID PACE.
BY EVENING, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. AS SUCH, WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AROUND 6-9 PM LOCAL
TIME, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A RAPID, DANGEROUS CHANGE IN DIRECTION OF
FORWARD MOVEMENT TO ANY ONGOING WILDFIRE FRONTS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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