375
FNUS22 KWNS 051812
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CDT SUN APR 05 2026
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
A CRITICAL AREA WAS ADDED OVER MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE, AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO,
SOUTHEAST COLORADO, AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO, THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL APPROACH 20-25 MPH WITHIN
THIS AREA FOR MULTIPLE HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING. ADDITIONALLY, MUCH
OF THE CRITICAL AREA IS ALSO EXPERIENCING ELEVATED CONDITIONS DURING
THE DAY 1/SUNDAY TIME FRAME, WORKING TO FURTHER PRE-CONDITION FUELS.
THE ELEVATED AREA WAS ALSO EXPANDED SLIGHTLY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWING DRIER AIR FARTHER EAST OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. CONSENSUS
INDICATES THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DRAWN AREA AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVING NATURE AND PROXIMITY OF THIS FRONT, IT'S PROGRESSION WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY WITH FUTURE ISSUANCES.
..STEARNS.. 04/05/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0152 AM CDT SUN APR 05 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN ON D2/MONDAY
AS AN INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND A MORE SECOND, MORE SUBTLE, MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES
EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST. SIMULTANEOUSLY, LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS/MIDWEST.
..PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SIMILAR TO D1/SUNDAY, A TIGHTENED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON D2/MONDAY. WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES FORECAST IN THE 10-15% RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DRY,
RECEPTIVE FUELS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL PROMOTE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO, SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, MUCH OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES, AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY GREATER SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 MPH
MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TX/NM/CO.
CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN WITHHELD AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF STRONGER
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AS WELL AS TIMING/POSITIONING DISCREPANCIES
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITHIN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD BEFORE STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ELEVATED AREA LATE
MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BUT IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESS. AREAS THAT DO SEE THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT CAN EXPECT A SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND AT
LEAST SOME INCREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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