362
FNUS22 KWNS 150609
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN L.A. COUNTY
VENTURA
COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...
..SYNOPSIS
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS A
SURFACE LOW DEPARTS FROM NEW ENGLAND. A SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ON DAY 2/FRIDAY, WITH DRY
POST-FRONTAL FLOW BRINGING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ALONG WITH A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OFFSHORE FLOW AND A FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CA.
..SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AN OFFSHORE WIND EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 2/FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA, MAINTAINING AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. A
MID/UPPER CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL AID IN DEEP LAYER
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION, SUPPORTING SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
(GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE VALLEYS, POSSIBLY UP TO 60 MPH IN THE
MOUNTAINS) AMID 10-15% RH. THE LONG DURATION OF THESE CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL ALLOW FUELS TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE RECEPTIVE. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15-25 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS INTO THE LOWER
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AMID MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 15-20%.
THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD, LIKELY AT ITS FINAL PEAK BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING INTO DAY
3/SATURDAY. A CORRIDOR OF SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN L.A. COUNTY INTO VENTURA AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
DAY 2/FRIDAY, SUPPORTING THE INTRODUCTION OF CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS.
..LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION
A DRY, POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WIND WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST. DRY AND
RECEPTIVE FUELS REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE
DROUGHT PROLIFERATES, WITH ERC VALUES RANGING FROM THE 80-90TH
PERCENTILES. NORTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 MPH (PERHAPS UP TO
20 MPH IN LOCALIZED AREAS) AND RH AS LOW AS 25% WILL PROMOTE AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR A FEW AFTERNOON HOURS.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 10/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page