994
FNUS22 KWNS 111946
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE RISK AREAS FOR DAY
2/WEDNESDAY; OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. FARTHER
SOUTH, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO OVERNIGHT HOURS WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST (HREF/REFS
5-10% PROBABILITIES), AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COASTAL REGIONS. WHILE ERCS ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN THE 80-90TH
PERCENTILES, INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF TO THE FUELSCAPE IN THE COMING DAYS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT PWATS WILL APPROACH 1" OR GREATER WITH LCL-EL WINDS LESS THAN
15 KTS, INSINUATING ACCUMULATING RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER,
PROFILES PORTRAY A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER IN THE VALLEYS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS, WHICH MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. LIGHTNING
IGNITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON THE PERIPHERY OF ACCUMULATING
RAINFALL WHERE RECEPTIVE FUELS EXIST. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 08/11/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0149 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ENCROACHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CA COAST ON D2/WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD. THE TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WILL
AID IN A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MT, ID PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN WA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS NORTH OF MORE ROBUST
MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROMOTE AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN CA AND ADJACENT OR/NV AS
WELL AS THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BOLSTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, PROMOTING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TX PANHANDLE, NORTHWESTERN OK AND SOUTHWESTERN KS.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN KS ON D2/WEDNESDAY. A PARENT SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KS
WILL ENHANCE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH, RH
DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 10% AMID A DROUGHT STRESSED FUELSCAPE WILL
PROMOTE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE, NORTHWESTERN OK AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN KS. ELEVATED
HIGHLIGHTS WERE ADJUSTED WESTWARD BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
EXPECTED FUEL CONDITIONS.
...NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON, IDAHO PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN
MONTANA...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEIGHBORING HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS INCREASING
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE AS PWATS REACH INTO THE 0.80-1.00 INCH RANGE AMID
INCREASINGLY INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, FUELS REMAIN QUITE RECEPTIVE WITH
ERCS STILL REACHING INTO THE 90-95TH PERCENTILES SO CONCERNS FOR NEW
IGNITIONS REMAIN. THEREFORE, ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS
WERE WARRANTED GIVEN ONGOING FIRE ACTIVITY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
...NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND FAR SOUTHERN
OREGON...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST AND BROADER RIDGE SLIDES
EASTWARD. A VERY DRY RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEVELOPING WESTERLY
WINDS OF UP TO 15 MPH DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER DRY FUELS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
CA, NORTHWESTERN NV AND SOUTHERN OR. FARTHER EAST, SIMILAR
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH AND RH AS LOW AS 15% WILL
SUPPORT AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN IN ID. INTRODUCED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR BOTH OF
THESE AREAS AS DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AT LEAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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