133
FNUS22 KWNS 191856
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
..AFTERNOON UPDATE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO EXPAND AND CONFINE THE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS BASED ON RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY INCREASE RH VALUES AND INHIBIT
DEEPER MIXING ACROSS SOME PARTS OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AND WESTERLY WINDS OF
10-15 MPH IN TERRAIN INFLUENCED AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. IN THE SOUTHEAST, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
OF UP TO 15 MPH (GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH) ARE EXPECTED WHERE
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FUELS EXIST. DESPITE WINDS DECREASING SLIGHTLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AREAS WHERE VERY LOW RH OF 15-20 PERCENT AND
GUSTIER WINDS OVERLAP MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FARTHER WEST, PORTIONS OF EASTERN WY MAY EXPERIENCE
LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE SPORADIC GUSTS OF
UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER, LACK OF MID-LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE NARROW DURATION OF STRONG
WINDS OVERLAPPING LOW RH PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF CRITICAL
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
NM INTO EASTERN AZ. PWATS OF 0.5-0.75" WITH A PROMINENT DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION, ALLOWING FOR THE THREAT
OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO EVOLVE. WHILE WIDESPREAD ERCS ARE BELOW THE
90TH PERCENTILE IN THIS REGION, RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY DEPICTS
RECEPTIVITY WHERE POCKETS OF DRIER FUELS EXIST.
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 04/19/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0204 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES, A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
RESULTING IN AREAS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER DRY FUELS.
..HIGH PLAINS
A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT
STRENGTHENING WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN NE. FURTHER SOUTH, A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PROXIMITY TO A LINGERING SURFACE HIGH OVER
EASTERN TX WILL PROMOTE STRENGTHENING WINDS ACROSS THE OK/TX
PANHANDLE REGION. WITHIN BOTH REGIMES, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH ARE LIKELY. RH MINIMUMS IN THE
TEENS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WY INTO NE WHERE DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL DEPRESS
MOISTURE CONTENT WITHIN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS. FURTHER SOUTH,
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF RETURNING MOISTURE WILL BEGIN NOSING INTO
WESTERN TX. THIS MAY LIMIT RH REDUCTIONS TO SOME DEGREE, BUT RH
MINIMUMS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 20S GIVEN MODEL
GUIDANCE TENDENCY TO DISPLAY A MOIST BIAS AT THE SURFACE WITHIN THE
EARLY STAGES OF MOISTURE RETURN.
..SOUTHEAST
A DRY AIR MASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST WHERE FUELS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY OWING TO LIMITED RAINFALL FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. IN GENERAL, GRADIENT WINDS
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER, AREAS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 MPH WITHIN A DRY AIR MASS (RH
MINIMUMS IN THE TEENS TO TWENTIES) WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
..NEW MEXICO TO EASTERN ARIZONA
LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHERN TX
AND INTO CENTRAL NM THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE MODEST UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, A COMBINATION OF
LOCALIZED OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYERS WITH
MINIMAL INHIBITION WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
STORM MOTIONS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT POCKETS OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION, BUT PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 0.6 TO 0.7 INCHES WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
CORES. WITH REGIONAL ERCS NEAR THE 75TH TO 80TH PERCENTILE,
LIGHTNING IGNITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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