363
FNUS22 KWNS 151934
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
..AFTERNOON UPDATE
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK RISK AREAS. A DRIER SURFACE
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN OR,
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NV, AND NORTHEASTERN CA ON DAY 2/THURSDAY.
HREF AND REFS PLACE 50-90% PROBABILITIES OF RH VALUES DECLINING TO
LESS THAN 15% ACROSS THE REGION. A COMBINATION OF HOT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES, A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 15
MPH (GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH) WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FORECAST METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DRYING OF FUELS WHERE RECENT LIGHT RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED; HOWEVER,
GREATER CONCERN EXISTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING NASCENT WILDFIRES BORN FROM PREVIOUS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NOTABLY, WITHIN THE LAST 72 HOURS, A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING HAS OCCURRED IN THE HIGHLIGHTED ELEVATED RISK
AREA WHERE ERCS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE 80-90TH PERCENTILE.
RESIDUAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE, AMPLE INSTABILITY, AND FORCING PROVIDED
BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CASCADES INTO THE NORTHERN ID
PANHANDLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. POCKETS OF DRY FUELS AMID
AREAS OF RECENT RAINFALL HAS ARRANGED A MIXED AND COMPLICATED
FUELSCAPE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ID. UNCERTAINTY IN BROADER-SCALE FUEL
RECEPTIVITY PRECLUDES AN EXPANSION OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM
HIGHLIGHTS, THOUGH POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR LIGHTNING IGNITIONS
WHERE DRY FUELS EXIST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK,
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 07/15/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1259 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A
LEE SURFACE TROUGH IN INTERIOR WA AND OR WILL SUPPORT DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN CA, SOUTH-CENTRAL OR AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN NV THURSDAY. A DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST
ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR WA AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
FARTHER SOUTH, DRY AND BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
RANGES OF CA AND ADJACENT CENTRAL VALLEY.
...NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
OREGON...
INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW ATTRIBUTED TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
ATOP AN INCREASINGLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER VIA EXITING MONSOON
MOISTURE, WILL BRING DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO NORTHEASTERN CA,
SOUTH-CENTRAL OR AND FAR NORTHWESTERN NV THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF UP TO 15 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10-15% WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
..PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL VALLEY
DRY AND BREEZY WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND RESULTANT FIRE
WEATHER THREAT WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CA
COASTAL RANGES, SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL VALLEY AND
ADJACENT SIERRA MADRE AND SAN RAFAEL RANGES. WIND SPEEDS OF UP TO 15
MPH (UP TO 20-25 MPH IN TERRAIN GAPS) COMBINED WITH RH IN THE 15-20%
RANGE WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
..WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHERN ID PANHANDLE
A DYNAMIC UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT 50-60 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET WILL PUSH
INTO THE OR/WA CASCADES THURSDAY. RESIDUAL MONSOON MOISTURE WITH
PWATS RANGING FROM 0.70-1.0", DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN, WILL BRING A DRY THUNDERSTORM
THREAT TO MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN WA AND NORTHERN ID PANHANDLE.
FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY WITH FORECAST ERC VALUES REMAINING NEAR THE
90TH PERCENTILE AS MINIMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE
D1/WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. LCL-EL LAYER NORTHEASTWARD VELOCITIES OF
30-35 KNOTS SUGGESTS REDUCED RESIDENCE TIME OF RAIN CORES WHICH WILL
ENHANCE IGNITION POTENTIAL. GUSTY OUTFLOW THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AIDED BY A DRY, SUB-CLOUD LAYER. HIGHLIGHTED AREA MAY
NEED FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS IF LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS OCCUR
D1/WEDNESDAY.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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