032
FNUS22 KWNS 071858
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CDT MON SEP 07 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON DAY 2/TUESDAY; SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 09/07/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0149 AM CDT MON SEP 07 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A STRENGTHENING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA ON DAY 2/TUESDAY IN TANDEM
WITH A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A TIGHTENED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH/GREAT PLAINS, WITH DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS SUPPORTING ANOTHER DAY
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA,
NORTHERN/EASTERN WYOMING, SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, AND PORTIONS OF
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
...SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHERN/EASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK
HILLS VICINITY...
THE LINGERING TIGHTENED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND OVERLYING
STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE DRY, WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW,
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. WHILE 700 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO
BE WEAKER, OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AMID
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
BE LOWER COMPARED TO DAY 1/MONDAY (LARGELY WITHIN THE 10-25% RANGE);
HOWEVER, LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOWEST RH VALUES MAY TEND
TO BE DISPLACED FARTHER EASTWARD FROM THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS.
NEVERTHELESS, THIS OVERLAP OF WIND/RH CONDITIONS AND RECEPTIVE FUELS
WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING WHERE STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS OVERLAP THE LOWEST RH VALUES. LOCALLY ELEVATED
CONDITIONS MAY ALSO MANIFEST ACROSS ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN
WYOMING AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST. MORE MARGINAL FUEL RECEPTIVENESS PRECLUDES FURTHER
EXPANSION OF THE ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALSO
BRING A SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY WINDS, WITH THIS CHANGE POTENTIALLY
HAPPENING PRIOR TO 00 UTC ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING. WINDS SHOULD THEN LARGELY WEAKEN BY THE 03-06 UTC PERIOD AS
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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