155
FNUS22 KWNS 171939
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
..AFTERNOON UPDATE
AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN SIERRA FOR DAY 2/THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE, DAYTIME MIXING AND RESULTANT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
(ALONGSIDE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT) AMID A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL
PROMOTE DRY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WHERE DRY/RECEPTIVE FUELS
EXIST. ALONG THE SIERRA, FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT PWATS RANGING
FROM 0.5-0.8" AND ROBUST MUCAPE UP TO 800 J/KG. GIVEN AN ANTECEDENT
RIDGING PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS,
FUELS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY RECEPTIVE, AS INDICATED BY RECENT
FIRE STARTS ACROSS THE REGION. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF STORM
INITIATION AND ANY SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS, THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ELEVATED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEASTERN AZ INTO
SOUTHERN NM TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR THE
CENTRAL NM MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AFTERNOON HEATING AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GILA
REGION INTO THE AZ WHITE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST PWATS OF 0.5-0.8" AND
LCLS EXCEEDING 3 KM MAY REDUCE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY, RAISING A
CONCERN FOR SOME LIGHTNING IGNITIONS WHERE DRY FUELS EXIST.
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 06/17/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0159 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE WILL RE-BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT
BASIN ON THURSDAY, WHERE A WARM/DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
AS A RESULT, DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS THE REGION
COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS, REDUCING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS AND THE OVERALL
FIRE-WEATHER RISK. HOWEVER, LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN TERRAIN-FAVORED/WIND-PRONE AREAS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
..DRY THUNDERSTORMS - SIERRA
OVER THE SIERRA AND VICINITY, A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
IMPINGE ON THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE, AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. INVERTED-V PROFILES
WILL FAVOR HIGH-BASED, MIXED WET-DRY STORMS. THESE STORMS ATOP DRY
FUELS MAY POSE SOME CONCERN FOR LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS.
HOWEVER, THE OVERALL RISK APPEARS TOO LOCALIZED/LIMITED FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
..CENTRAL NC AND VICINITY
AROUND 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.
THESE BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS WILL OVERLAP MARGINALLY LOW RH (AROUND
35-40 PERCENT), AND GIVEN A LACK OF RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL NC,
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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