897
FNUS22 KWNS 121919
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
..AFTERNOON UPDATE
AN ELEVATED RISK AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN TO
ACCOUNT FOR 10-15 MPH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH) AND
DAYTIME RH VALUES DECLINING TO 20-30% AMID DRY FUELS. IN ADDITION,
THE HOT DRY WINDY INDEX DEPICTS PARTS OF THE REGION TO EXCEED THE
90TH PERCENTILE, AND ERCS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO APPROACH THE 90-95TH
PERCENTILE. FARTHER WEST, A RESIDUAL DRY AIRMASS AND GUSTY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 15 MPH WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS EASTERN MT.
A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN CO MAY INITIALLY POSE
A CONCERN FOR LIGHTNING IGNITIONS AMID A VERY DRY FUELSCAPE;
HOWEVER, SLOW STORM MOTIONS FAVORING PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY, AND
INCREASING MOISTURE/CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING RAINFALL IN THE COMING
DAYS PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF DRY THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS.
OTHERWISE, MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM RISK AREAS BASED ON UPDATED GUIDANCE. SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 07/12/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0152 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE ON MONDAY, RIDGING WILL
INTENSIFY OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL TRANSPORT
MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN US, RESULTING IN A FEW
POCKETS OF DRY/WET THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY, DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS.
...NORTHERN COLORADO INTO WYOMING AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY, AS SURFACE WINDS RESPOND TO A
LEE TROUGH. THESE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AROUND 15-20 MPH, WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARYING BETWEEN 10-20%. DEAD FUELS GUIDANCE HAS
ERCS IN THE 95TH ANNUAL PERCENTILE RANGE, BUT SOME SEMI-RECENT
RAINFALL AND LIVE VEGETATION WILL SERVE TO REDUCE SOME OF THE
VOLATILITY OF THOSE FUELS. AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
...SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WHILE ANTICIPATED TO BE A MIX OF
WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS, ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS WERE
INTRODUCED TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA ON MONDAY. THIS MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERLAP
WITH RECEPTIVE FUELS, AND LIGHTNING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE WETTER
DOWNDRAFTS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF WILDFIRE IGNITIONS.
IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA, A MORE CLASSIC ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT OF
0.5-0.75" IS FORECAST WHERE HREF/REFS GUIDANCE SHOWS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS TO THIS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOWS DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILES AND RELATIVELY FAST STORM
MOTIONS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIMITED PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERLAPPING WITH CRITICALLY RECEPTIVE FUELS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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