811
FNUS22 KWNS 131926
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE DRAWN AREAS. CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO
EXTENDING THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDER AREA FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CASCADES. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT, SLOWER STORM MOTIONS, AND RESULTANT LIKELIHOOD FOR
STORMS TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER HIGH TERRAIN, AN EXPANSION WAS
DECIDED AGAINST. OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MODEL CONSENSUS IS
TRENDING THE DRIEST CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH/EAST. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES, A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF
THE CURRENT ELEVATED AREA MAY BE NECESSARY. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS
WHETHER OR NOT RHS WILL DROP LOW ENOUGH DURING PEAK HEATING, WHICH
IS CONTINGENT, AT LEAST IN PART, UPON IF, HOW WIDESPREAD, AND HOW
MUCH RAINFALL COULD OCCUR ON DAY 1/THURSDAY OVER THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE.
..STEARNS.. 08/13/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1251 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DEEP SOUTH FOR
D2/FRIDAY. THIS TROUGHING ALONG WITH MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WEST SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHWEST CA MOUNTAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN
AND CENTRAL OR. PERSISTENT DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SOUTH OF A
SURFACE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
RELENTLESS HEAT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 100S WILL RESULT IN RH
REDUCTIONS TO 15-20 PERCENT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 15-20 MPH SOUTH OF A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PRESENT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN TX AND WESTERN OK AS VERY DRY FUELS REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. A CORRIDOR OF THUNDERSTORMS IN PROXIMITY TO A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN KS. HOWEVER, THE
SUB-CLOUD BOUNDARY LAYER COULD BE MODIFIED BY CONVECTION ON
D1/THURSDAY, INHIBITING THE OVERALL THREAT OF ADDITIONAL DRY
THUNDERSTORMS.
..NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OREGON
AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT EXISTS FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN CA AND OR FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST
COAST, MONSOON MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BRING
ISOLATED CONVECTION BACK INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWESTERN CA,
OREGON CASCADES AND CENTRAL OR. PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 0.90" AND
FASTER NORTHEASTWARD THUNDERSTORM TRAJECTORIES BOLSTERED BY A
MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE CASCADES, WILL PROMOTE LIMITED
RAINFALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY
IMPROVE FUELS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ERC VALUES STILL NEARING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND SHOULD PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW
IGNITIONS FRIDAY.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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