425
FNUS22 KWNS 020704
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH/GREAT PLAINS ON D2/MONDAY, WITH ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EASTWARD, EJECTING
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN
THE NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS,
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SIMULTANEOUSLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH/GREAT PLAINS AND LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
BOTH WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS AND PRECEDING THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE HIGH/GREAT PLAINS
ON SUNDAY.
..NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE HIGH/GREAT PLAINS
SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY (PERHAPS EVEN NORTHEASTERLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WYOMING) WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE FORECAST
AMID MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 15-25% ACROSS EASTERN/NORTHERN WYOMING,
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA, THE WESTERN DAKOTAS, AND THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS MONDAY AFTERNOON. TO THE
SOUTHWEST, WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
AND VERY LOW RH OF 10-15% ARE FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA/CENTRAL IDAHO INTO NORTHERN UTAH, NORTHWESTERN COLORADO, AND
SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING. TO THE SOUTH, SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
15-20 MPH AND MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 15-25% ARE FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS PRECEDING THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH. DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION, FUELS ARE NOTED TO COMMONLY EXCEED
THE 80TH TO 90TH PERCENTILES (95TH PERCENTILE IN SOME LOCATIONS).
THIS COMBINATION OF METEOROLOGICAL AND FUEL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL WYOMING WHERE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
THE STRONGEST. THE PRIMARY CHANGE WITH THIS OUTLOOK CYCLE WAS TO
EXPAND THE ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BASED ON RECENT HREF WIND/RH
PROBABILITY TRENDS. WHILE ELEVATED WIND/RH CRITERIA ARE LIKELY TO BE
MET FARTHER WEST INTO THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NM, GREATER RECENT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS PRECLUDE AN
EXPANSION OF THE ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS INTO THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, INCLUDING NORTHERN COLORADO
ISOLATED, HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE HIGH-TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH LCLS OF 4+ KM AND PW OF
0.5-0.75". THESE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD
PRODUCE LIGHTNING WITH LITTLE WETTING RAINFALL. WHILE AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING IGNITION MAY BE POSSIBLE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN MORE
THAN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERLAPPING DRIER, MORE RECEPTIVE
FUELS CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE OUTLOOK CYCLES, HOWEVER.
..CHALMERS.. 08/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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