296
FNUS22 KWNS 122001
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
ALL DRAWN AREAS WERE EXPANDED COMMENSURATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE. OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE EXISTING ISOLATED DRY
THUNDER AREA WAS EXPANDED TO ACCOMMODATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL, PRIMARILY NOCTURNAL, CONVECTION WITH MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION. ADDITIONALLY, THE ELEVATED AREA WAS
EXPANDED FARTHER WEST TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING PEAK HEATING. THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DRAWN AREA AROUND SUNSET.
OVER THE WESTERN US, THE TWO EXISTING ISOLATED DRY THUNDER AREAS
WERE COMBINED AND EXPANDED. AN AREA OF CONCERN INCLUDES THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL SIERRA MOUNTAINS WHERE THE LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AIDED BY A PASSING SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OVER CENTRAL OR,
THE MAJORITY OF THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AREA AMID
BACKGROUND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.55-0.75" AND STORMS
MOTIONS NEAR 25 MPH. FARTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN IN SOUTHERN ID, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
FORECAST GUIDANCE QPF SHOW HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING STARTS COULD ALSO BE MORE NUMEROUS
AMID DRIER FUELS, EXTENDING THE THREAT TO THE EAST. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDER AREA REMAINS ON TRACK.
..STEARNS.. 08/12/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1252 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
MID/UPPER TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE
UPPER RIDGING EDGES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT PLAINS. AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CA/NV WILL BRING A FEW
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF FRINGE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS KS WILL
MAINTAIN A FIRE WEATHER THREAT INTO D2/THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTH WINDS OF UP TO 15 MPH AMID LOW RH AND
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FUELS WILL SUPPORT A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR WESTERN OK AND EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. A DIFFUSE
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS KS. SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ATOP A WELL
MIXED AND DRY SUB-CLOUD BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SUPPORT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE,
NORTHWESTERN OK AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHERN KS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. RECEPTIVE FUELS WITH ERC VALUES IN THE 97-99TH PERCENTILE
RANGE AND CURED FINE FUELS COULD PROMOTE A FEW IGNITIONS OUTSIDE OF
HEAVIER RAIN CORES FROM THESE INITIALLY HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS.
DOWNDRAFT CAPE OF 1500 J/KG OR GREATER WILL EVOLVE AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 100S F YET AGAIN, INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WINDS IMPACTING ANY POTENTIAL IGNITIONS/NEW
FIRE STARTS. INTRODUCED ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS TO
COVER THIS THREAT.
..NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY,
INTERACTING WITH MORE DIFFUSE MONSOON MOISTURE WHERE PWATS IN THE
0.6-0.9" RANGE SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN CA INTO SOUTHEASTERN OR, FAR NORTHWESTERN NV AND
SOUTHWESTERN ID. NEW IGNITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE MORE INTENSE
RAIN CORES WITH ERCS STILL IN THE 90-95TH PERCENTILE. ANOTHER
MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL PROMOTE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. NORTHEASTWARD STORM TRAJECTORIES UP TO 30 MPH WILL
LIMIT RAINFALL IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS, INCREASING IGNITION POTENTIAL
OVER DRY FUELS. SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THESE HIGHLIGHTED
AREAS BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BUT LARGELY REMAIN INTACT.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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