210
FNUS22 KWNS 061954
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT THU AUG 06 2026
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
..NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
INCREASING WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNDER A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS, NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR WA/OR ON DAY
2/FRIDAY. DAYTIME MIXING WITH RESULTANT BREEZY SURFACE WINDS OF UP
TO 15 MPH FROM THE WEST, AFTERNOON RH REDUCTIONS OF 5-15% IN VALLEYS
AMID RECEPTIVE FUELS, WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION. BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN FAVORED
CASCADE TERRAIN GAPS WHERE WINDS OF UP TO 20 MPH AND RH AS LOW AS 15
PERCENT WILL COEXIST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW.
..SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWESTERN UTAH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER A DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER, LIMITING SURFACE RAINFALL AND INCREASING IGNITION POTENTIAL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NV AND SOUTHWESTERN UT. ADJUSTED
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS FARTHER NORTH INTO EAST-CENTRAL
NV GIVEN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. FUELS GENERALLY BECOME
MORE RECEPTIVE ACROSS CENTRAL NV WHERE ACTIVE WILDFIRES EXIST.
.CALIFORNIA
ALTHOUGH EXCEPTIONALLY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S TO LOWER 110S
COMBINED WITH RH AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN CA VALLEYS ON DAY 2/FRIDAY, ONLY LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN TERRAIN-FAVORED GAPS AND
DOWNSLOPE AREAS. HOWEVER, FUELS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DRY WITHIN
THIS ENVIRONMENT, WITH MANY AREAS EXCEEDING THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR
ERC VALUES EAST OF THE COASTAL RANGES.
..WILLIAMS.. 08/06/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1243 AM CDT THU AUG 06 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A FLATTENING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN ON DAY 2/FRIDAY, WITH STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RIDING OVER THE RIDGE ATOP THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS. NUMEROUS LARGE WILDFIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PLUMES OF SMOKE THAT WILL
BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CONUS WITHIN THE UPPER PATTERN. MEANWHILE,
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, AND UTAH, PROMOTING AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AMID A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
..NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT AMID A REINFORCED ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST U.S. ON DAY 2/FRIDAY. A
PROLONGED DRY AIRMASS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WORSENING FUEL CONDITIONS,
WITH FORECAST ANNUAL ERCS EXCEEDING THE 95-98TH PERCENTILES. WHILE
THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF SUSTAINED 15+ MPH WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED,
DIURNAL FLOW AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS AMID 10-20% RH AND
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FUELS WILL PRESENT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR NEW
FIRE STARTS AND IMPACT ACTIVE WILDFIRES.
..SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWESTERN UTAH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH.
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH A DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER AND FORECAST PWATS OF 0.8" OR LESS. FUELS HAVE GROWN
MORE RECEPTIVE UNDER SEVERAL DAYS OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS,
PRESENTING A GREATER CONCERN FOR LIGHTNING IGNITIONS. AS SUCH,
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS THE
REGION.
..CALIFORNIA
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 100+ DEGREES F AND 5-15% RH ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA VALLEYS AND SURROUNDING TERRAIN. THE
SPATIAL EXTENT OF SUSTAINED 15+ MPH WINDS FOR 3 HOURS OR GREATER
WILL BE LIMITED, PRECLUDING AN INTRODUCTION OF FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS; HOWEVER, PERIODS OF ONSHORE FLOW EXCEEDING 15 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS LOCALIZED INTERIOR REGIONS AND TERRAIN-FAVORED
AREAS, SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS WHERE FUELS ARE
RECEPTIVE.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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