232
FNUS22 KWNS 211944
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
..PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS
AN EXPANSIVE FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT A LARGE
PORTION OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO AREAS WEST OF THE ROCKIES AND
SOUTHWEST. BROAD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A STRENGTHENING
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY STRONG
LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN MT.
SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW, LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE HIGH BASED CONVECTION ALONG AN EMERGING DRYLINE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A PROMINENT DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER BETWEEN 0.5"-0.75", ALLOWING FOR SOME THREAT OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS TO EVOLVE WHERE FUELS REMAIN RECEPTIVE. ISODRYT
HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FROM SOUTHWESTERN SD INTO FAR
NORTHWEST KS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.
A STRONG UPPER JET WILL PUSH INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION ON
WEDNESDAY SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNSLOPE ENHANCED WINDS AS LEE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN. CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS WERE EXPANDED WEST
TO ENCOMPASS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE SINGLE DIGIT RH AND STRONG
GUSTS OF UP TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO LAST UP TO 12 HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL-EASTERN CO AND
SOUTHEASTERN WY. LOCALLY EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE MOUNTAIN WAVE INFLUENCE COULD ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO
SINGLE DIGITS AND SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WITH TERRAIN-DRIVEN
GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WERE EXPANDED INTO EASTERN
MT THROUGH CENTRAL MN WHERE 20-30 PERCENT RH AND 15-20 MPH
WEST-SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OVERLAP DRYING FUELS. ADDITIONALLY,
ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WERE EXPANDED FARTHER WEST TO COVER EASTERN UT,
WESTERN CO, AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WY FOR WESTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS
UP TO 30 MPH AMID 10-15 PERCENT RH AND DRYING FUELS. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH WY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND LIKELY
THROUGH MUCH OF CO AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES, HIGHER RH, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT IN WY INTO NORTHERN CO, WEST OF THE DIVIDE/FRONT RANGE.
HOWEVER, STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY INTO WESTERN
NE AND NORTHEAST CO OVERNIGHT WITH RH INCREASING TO 30-50 PERCENT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH NEARLY
THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, FURTHER EXACERBATING THE FIRE
ENVIRONMENT.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 04/21/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0100 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A PRONOUNCED, EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, ACCOMPANYING
55-65 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET AND DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS WILL PROMOTE A BROAD FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS.
INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.
..SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
A LEE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS THE
ROBUST MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES INTO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH THE
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET MOVING OVER THE UPPER CO RIVER BASIN. AN
EXPANSIVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL EMERGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACCELERATE BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. DOWNSLOPE ENHANCED
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALIGNING WITH
CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 10% SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED
ACROSS EASTERN WY/CO AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NM AND
ADJACENT TX/OK PANHANDLE AREAS, WHERE CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS WERE
INTRODUCED. LOCALLY EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
INCLUDING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30-35 MPH AND SINGLE DIGIT RH ARE
POSSIBLE IN FAVORED TERRAIN GAPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND THE CO FRONT RANGE WHERE FUELS REMAIN RECEPTIVE
TO WILDFIRE SPREAD.
..PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF MID ATLANTIC
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO PORTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VA WEDNESDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING WINDS AND DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ALONG WITH RH
FALLING TO 20-30% DURING PEAK HEATING WILL ALIGN WITH A RECEPTIVE
FUELSCAPE TO PROMOTE SEVERAL HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WERE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD BASED ON LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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