284
FNUS22 KWNS 111918
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL IDAHO INTO SOUTHERN
MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING...
A CRITICAL AREA WAS ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL IDAHO INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. HREF/REFS PROBABILITIES OF
CRITICAL WINDS/RH WERE MOSTLY GREATER THAN 50% WITH SWATHS OF AREAS
ABOVE 90%. AT NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK, SOME GREEN VEGETATION
REMAINS. HOWEVER, WITH FORECAST ERCS NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE, BIS NEAR TO ABOVE THE 97TH PERCENTILE, INCLUDING
ALL-TIME DAILY MAXIMUMS, AND HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF CRITICAL WINDS/RH
OVERLAPPING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, A CRITICAL AREA WAS
INTRODUCED. LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING. ADDITIONALLY, LOCALLY
ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AS WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH OVERLAP WITH MINIMUM RH OF
30-40%.
THE ELEVATED AREA ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA
WAS MODIFIED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION FORECAST
GUIDANCE. MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS MAY LIMIT REDUCTIONS IN RH AND THUS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ELEVATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS, INCLUDING INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
CALIFORNIA, POTENTIALLY STARTING LATE DAY 1/TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS, BUT VERY LIMITED BUOYANCY
AND INSTABILITY PUTS THE PROBABILITY AT LESS THAN 10%. ISOLATED
MIXED WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULAR RANGES AND SOUTHERN SIERRA AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING ACROSS
THE MOJAVE AND SONORAN DESERTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND RAINFALL, AN
ISODRYT AREA WAS NOT INTRODUCED.
..NAUSLAR.. 07/11/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0205 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE INTERIOR
CANADIAN PROVINCES ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. RESIDUAL FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM THE EJECTING TROUGH AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED
FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.
...EASTERN IDAHO INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA, EASTERN WYOMING, AND FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...
A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO IDAHO, WHERE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 MPH, POTENTIALLY GUSTING TO 25-30
MPH. WIDESPREAD RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT OR EVEN BELOW 10% WITH THESE
FORECAST WIND GUSTS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE RECEPTIVENESS OF FUELS ACROSS THE REGION. ERCS
FUELS GUIDANCE EXCEEDS THE 90TH-95TH ANNUAL PERCENTILES, BUT OTHER
SOURCES SUGGEST THERE MAY BE MORE GREEN VEGETATION THAT IS NOT
ACCOUNTED FOR IN ERCS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE QUALITY OF
FUELS, ONLY ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. HOWEVER,
FURTHER UPGRADE TO CRITICAL IN THE DAY 2 UPDATE IS POSSIBLE AS
FORECAST GUIDANCE AND FUEL READINESS BECOME CLEARER.
...NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHWESTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON...
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING MID-LEVEL JET
WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADAS INTO THE
CASCADES ON SUNDAY. WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF
10-15%, COMBINED WITH MODESTLY RECEPTIVE FUELS (ERCS AT THE 80TH
ANNUAL PERCENTILE) WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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