025
FNUS22 KWNS 010723
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHERN UTAH
WESTERN
WYOMING...CENTRAL/EASTERN IDAHO...AND MONTANA...
..SYNOPSIS
THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ON D2/SUNDAY, WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE
REGION AND A DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A COMBINATION OF DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS AND HOT, DRY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN,
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN GREAT/HIGH PLAINS.
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR LIGHTNING-INDUCED HOLDOVERS TO EMERGE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IDAHO
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
..MONTANA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AND
EASTERN IDAHO AT THE START OF THE D2 PERIOD (12 UTC SUNDAY). STRONG
MID-LEVEL FLOW (35-45 KTS AT 700 MB) IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG
THE MONTANA/CANADA BORDER DURING THIS TIME FRAME. COUPLED WITH A
TIGHTENED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS, THIS WILL FAVOR STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MONTANA (INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT) BEGINNING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY. SUSTAINED 20-25 MPH
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE COMMON SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THESE
MAGNITUDES PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MONTANA BUT WEAKENING
TO 15-20 MPH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA, WESTERN SD/ND, AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. WIND GUSTS TO 30-40+ MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
(PRIMARILY ACROSS MONTANA), WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS MOST LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, RH RECOVERIES ARE FORECAST TO BE MODEST
AT BEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH SHOULD FAVOR QUICK
RH REDUCTIONS TO 15-20% BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY
(LOCALLY DROPPING TO 10% LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON).
WITH ERCS COMMONLY EXCEEDING THE 90TH AND 95TH PERCENTILES (98TH
PERCENTILE IN CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA), THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PROMOTE AN EXTENDED PERIOD (6+ HOURS FOR SOME LOCATIONS) OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS WERE EXPANDED
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD IN PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE FORECAST FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH PRECLUDES
FARTHER EASTWARD EXPANSION INTO NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME, BUT
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THIS
REGION. ADDITIONALLY, SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MAY PASS THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT, WHICH COULD BRING A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A BRIEF
SURGE IN MAGNITUDE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE OUTLOOKS.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST, SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH AND RH
REDUCTIONS TO 15-20% ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA, WHICH WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. A SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..CENTRAL/EASTERN IDAHO INTO WESTERN WYOMING
RECENT FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DRY COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO
EXTEND FROM NORTHERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO EARLY
IN THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY. WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS, GENERALLY
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FUNNEL DOWN THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY, WITH MAGNITUDES UP TO 25 MPH (PERHAPS HIGHER) FOR AT LEAST 6
HOURS AMID RH REDUCTIONS TO 15-20%. FARTHER EAST IN WESTERN WYOMING,
INITIALLY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY AND ACCELERATE TO AROUND 20 MPH AMID RH OF 10-20%. WHILE
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED RECENT RAINFALL, ERCS ARE
ALREADY NOTED TO BE AROUND THE 80-95TH PERCENTILES, AND DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON D1/SATURDAY WILL AID IN THE DRYING OF FINE
FUELS. THUS, THIS COMBINATION OF WINDS, RH, AND DRY FUELS WILL
PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN IDAHO
INTO WESTERN WYOMING BEGINNING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY. LIGHTER WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WYOMING.
..EASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON AND NORTHERN IDAHO
LINGERING, ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST (INCLUDING EASTERN WA/OR AND NORTHERN ID) MAY
SUPPORT SUSTAINED WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 MPH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
20-25% (EASTERN WA, NORTHERN ID, AND NORTHERN OR) TO 10-20%
(SOUTHEASTERN OR). THIS MAY PROMOTE SEVERAL HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE FORECAST TO
EXPERIENCE CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
D1/SATURDAY.
..GREAT BASIN
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH AMID VERY LOW RH OF AROUND 10% SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH ERCS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE 80TH TO
95TH PERCENTILES ACROSS THE REGION, THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN/NORTHERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
..CHALMERS.. 08/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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