225
FNUS22 KWNS 120704
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS...
..SYNOPSIS
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
PROGRESSING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR WIDESPREAD DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
ALL THE WAY INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA.
CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
..EASTERN NEW MEXICO/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS
CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO INTO PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WESTERN KANSAS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10-15% AND WINDS OF 25
MPH WILL OVERLAP WITH CRITICALLY RECEPTIVE FUELS. WHILE CRITICAL
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR THEY COULD EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CURRENT AREA, RECENT WETTING RAINFALL AND A LACK OF
RECEPTIVE FUELS CURRENTLY LIMIT THE EXPANSION OF HIGHLIGHTS. STILL,
THERE ARE SOME POCKETS OF RECEPTIVE FUELS IN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THAT HAVE YET TO RECEIVE RAIN, AND SOME
ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE WARRANTED IN FUTURE UPDATES. A
SECONDARY AREA OF CONCERN IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE COULD BE PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA/WYOMING, WHERE SOME MEMBERS
HAVE COME IN WITH WINDS OF 25-30 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10-15%
OVER RECEPTIVE FUELS. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE SURFACE WINDS
REDUCES CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE THESE HIGHLIGHTS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE MEMBERS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MODELS THAT TEND TO BIAS
TOWARDS AGGRESSIVE MIXING. STILL, THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR
ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS IN FUTURE UPDATES.
..MID ATLANTIC
DRY SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CAROLINA INTO MUCH OF VIRGINIA, WHERE FUELS CURRENTLY EXCEED THE
95TH-99TH ANNUAL PERCENTILES FOR ERCS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
10-15 MPH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 25-35%, SUPPORTING ELEVATED
FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS.
..HALBERT.. 04/12/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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