975
FNUS22 KWNS 181914
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
NEVADA...NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON...
AN AREA OF SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORM RISK WAS INTRODUCED FOR DAY
2/FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN CA, NORTHWESTERN NV, AND
FAR SOUTHERN OR. THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGHER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT BEGIN IN THE MID-MORNING HOURS ON DAY
2/FRIDAY AND DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY INCREASES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE DRAWN AREA. EVEN SO, LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STORM
MOTIONS OF 15-30 MPH WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF THIS AREA OF
CONCENTRATED CONVECTION REMAINING MOSTLY DRY. ADJUSTMENTS IN THE
FORM OF SLIGHT EXPANSIONS WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM AREA AS WELL. THESE SMALL CHANGES WERE COMMENSURATE
WITH THE AREAL EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORMS INDICATED BY THE LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN CA COAST AND IN
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OR. THE ELEVATED WIND/RH AREA WAS ALSO EXPANDED
TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE MOJAVE AND MUCH OF THE COLORADO
DESERTS IN SOUTHERN CA WHERE DRY AND RECEPTIVE FUELS WILL COEXIST
WITH AFTERNOON RHS NEAR 5-10% AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT
15-20 MPH.
..STEARNS.. 06/18/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0158 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN CA
INTO THE GREAT BASIN -- RESULTING IN THE BREAKDOWN OF AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION.
..DRY THUNDERSTORMS
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND
AMPLE MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN CA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
MORNING AND PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE AROUND 0.75
INCH PW WILL PROMOTE A MIX OF WET-DRY THUNDERSTORMS, QUICK STORM
MOTIONS AND A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STILL TEND TO LIMIT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN PRECEDING
DAYS OF WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASINGLY RECEPTIVE FUELS,
LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS AND LOCALLY STRONG/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS
ARE A CONCERN.
..GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
WILL OVERSPREAD A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF 10-15 PERCENT RH AND 15-20
MPH SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ATOP DRY FUELS WILL
FAVOR ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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