232
FNUS22 KWNS 201856
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
..NO CRITICAL AREAS
..AFTERNOON UPDATE
AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, A
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
AND UPPER SOUTHWEST ON DAY 2/THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
LOCALIZED TERRAIN-ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-20 MPH AS RH DECLINES TO 10-20% AT PEAK HEATING. A NARROW REGION
OF STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (15-25 MPH) WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO, THOUGH DISPLACED FROM THE LOWEST RH,
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL. AS THE FRONT PASSES IN THE EVENING,
BRIEFLY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE WILL
ENVELOP THE REGION. THE MORE LOCALIZED NATURE OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SPARSELY CONTINUOUS FUELS PRECLUDES THE
INTRODUCTION OF HIGHLIGHTS.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 05/20/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1251 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
ON DAY 2/THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK WILL TRANSIT THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN TRENDS IN THE RECENT FORECAST GUIDANCE AS TO HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS FEATURE WILL DIG AND THE TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL
PROGRESS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH/EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
..SOUTHWEST
CONDITIONS ON DAY 2/THURSDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO DAY
1/WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH AND BRIEF
AFTERNOON RHS OF 10-20%. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH, MARGINALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF A SYNOPTICALLY-SUPPORTED FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT, AND
MORE SPARSELY CONTINUOUS FUELS, NO HIGHLIGHTED AREAS WERE INTRODUCED
WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
..MAINE
ONE LOCATION THAT WILL MISS OUT ON MUCH OF ANY ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CONUS. WITH THIS OFFSHORE FLOW (SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH) IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE, RHS WILL ALSO DIP DOWN
NEAR 25-35% BEHIND THE FRONT ON DAY 2/THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY
DEAD FUELS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE 80-90TH PERCENTILE. HOWEVER, WELL
ESTABLISHED GREEN UP AT THIS POINT WILL PRECLUDE ANY HIGHLIGHTED
AREAS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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