597
FNUS22 KWNS 131932
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
..AFTERNOON UPDATE
THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA WAS EXPANDED INTO PORTIONS
OF THE KLAMATH-SISKIYOU REGION AND NORTHERN COAST RANGES OF
CALIFORNIA FOR DAY 2/TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT DEEP
INVERTED-V PROFILES, SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-300
J/KG, PWATS LESS THAN 0.8", AND FAST LCL-EL MEAN WINDS OF OVER 25
KTS, WARRANTING THE EXPANSION OF HIGHLIGHTS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 07/13/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0152 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL US WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING
ON TUESDAY. NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS.
..NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN MONTANA,
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD
RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 10-15% AND CRITICALLY RECEPTIVE FUELS, AT
LEAST ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN NEVADA...
NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING MORE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HREF/REFS CALIBRATED
THUNDER GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OCCURRING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT OF 0.75-1.0", SUGGESTING A MIX OF WET AND
DRY THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW DEEP
INVERTED-VS AND LCL-EL MEAN WIND SPEEDS OF 25-30 KTS INDICATE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. GIVEN FUELS GUIDANCE SHOWING ERCS
IN THE 80TH-90TH ANNUAL PERCENTILE RANGE, LIGHTNING-BASED IGNITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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