172
AXNT20 KNHC 100412
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON AUG 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W AND EXTENDS FROM 06N TO 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS, FROM 07.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN
24W AND 30W. LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE LOWER LEVELS AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE, WHERE THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND MERGE WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE TO MOVE OFF OF AFRICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY
MIDWEEK. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THIS WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 41W-42W FROM 07N TO 17N, MOVING WEST AT
AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 07.5N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 36W AND 49W. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS WAVE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THIS
WEEK WHILE IT MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS
SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W FROM 13N TO 24N, MOVING WEST AT
15 KT. SAHARAN AIR SURROUNDS THIS WAVE, AND THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
IS JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N53W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W AND EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NORTHWEST VENEZUELA, MOVING WEST AT 15 TO
20 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED BEHIND THE
WAVE, FROM 14N TO 18.5N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W, INCLUDING THE MONA
PASSAGE AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 20N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 11N24W TO 10.5N45W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N46W TO 11.5N62W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 36W AND THE COAST OF
AFRICA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DOT THE GULF
WATERS, MAINLY NEAR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, THE YUCATAN CHANNEL, AND
OVER THE NW PART OF THE BASIN. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS
HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CONVECTION HAS ALSO
FLARED-UP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS SLOWLY SHIFTING
WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 29N. THIS PATTERN IS
SUPPORTING MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT OF 3 FT OR LESS
OVER MOST OF THE BASIN. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE N AND W COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, W OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PENINSULA.
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF WILL DOMINATE THE GENERAL WIND FLOW PATTERN ACROSS BASIN
WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK, GENERALLY SUPPORTING GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS NORTH OF 24N ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEAS. PULSES
OF FRESH WINDS WILL OCCUR NORTH AND WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH EVENING AND NIGHT AS A DIURNAL
SURFACE TROUGH MIGRATES FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WESTWARD ACROSS
THE SW GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
JUST SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND A 1007 MB COLOMBIAN LOW CONTINUES
TO PROMOTE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 66W AND 80W, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 30 KT
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND INSIDE THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. SEAS ARE 7 TO
10 FT WITH THESE WINDS. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO STRONG NEAR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, NEAR THE BARAHONA
PENINSULA, AS A TROPICAL WAVE IS MORNING THROUGH THE AREA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TRAILS THE WAVE, AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE E OF 66W ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT
THERE. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE ALSO PRESENT ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS NW PORTIONS, WITH MODERATE SEAS.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER
SOUTH COASTAL PORTIONS OF CUBA, AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE SW BASIN WILL INTO THE WEEK. THE
ASSOCIATED ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO NEAR
28N THROUGH MIDWEEK MAINTAINING STRONG TO NEAR-GALE WINDS OFFSHORE
COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA EACH NIGHT. WINDS WILL
PULSE UP TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS DURING THE EVENINGS AND AT
NIGHT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTHWARD LATER
THIS WEEK, WHICH MAY ACT TO INCREASE THE TRADES AGAIN ACROSS THE
BASIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN
W AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
IS MONITORING TWO AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE COMING WEEK. REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
A WEAK TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. SOUTHEASTERN COAST IN
COMBINATION WITH AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE IS HELPING TO
SUPPORT A SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA, N OF 29N BETWEEN BETWEEN 72W AND 77W.
OTHERWISE, A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC
FORECAST WATERS, CENTERED ON A 1023 MB BERMUDA HIGH, AND A 1024 MB
HIGH NEAR 28N38W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE
AREA ALONG 31N48W AND DISRUPTS THE RIDGE THERE BETWEEN 45W AND
55W. THIS RIDGE IS PROMOTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS SOUTH
OF 24N AND WEST OF 30W, WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ARE NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 41W-42W. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND 5 TO 9 FT SEAS EXTEND FROM THE
CANARY ISLANDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 19N. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE
RIDGE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
SHIFT GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 28N THROUGH TUE. FRESH TRADES
WILL PREVAIL N OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD, PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS EACH EVENING
AND NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SINK A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWARD LATER NEXT
WEEK, WHICH MAY RESULT IN STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS.
OF NOTE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD, AND MERGE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
EXITING AFRICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY MIDWEEK. A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK
WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
STRIPLING
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