223  
AXNT20 KNHC 211041  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1205 UTC SAT MAY 21 2022  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1030 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, KNOWN AS THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE  
(CAG), HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ADJACENT  
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN TODAY. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT  
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC, INCREASING SW  
WINDS AND ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE MAJORITY  
OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA HAS CAUSED LOCALIZED FLOODING TODAY.  
HEAVY TO EXTREME RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND OVER PORTIONS  
OF GUATEMALA, EL SALVADOR, NICARAGUA, HONDURAS, COSTA RICA, AND  
PANAMA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO  
LAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY  
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 53W, FROM 03N  
TO 18N MOVING WEST AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
NOTED FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 50W-55W.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SENEGAL COAST NEAR 14N17W TO  
08N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N25W TO 05N50W. SCATTERED WEAK  
TO MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN THE COAST OF  
AFRICA AND 25W.  
   
..GULF OF MEXICO
 
 
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER  
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE  
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN, WITH STRONG WINDS OCCURRING IN THE SOUTH  
CENTRAL BASIN AND ALONG THE SE TEXAS COAST. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT IN THE  
EASTERN GULF AND 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE. DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS  
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE  
SURROUNDING COASTAL AREAS. SMOKE FROM AGRICULTURAL FIRES OVER  
MEXICO CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AND IS PRODUCING HAZY SKIES  
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WITH 3-5 MI VISIBILITY.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS ALONG WITH  
OCCASIONALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF  
TO THE NORTHWEST GULF INTO SUN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE  
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND  
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUN INTO  
MON AS THE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS, EXCEPT FOR PULSES OFF FRESH TO  
STRONG WINDS OFF THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, MAINLY  
AT NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, A RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WESTERN  
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK, SUPPORT FRESH  
SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. CURRENTLY, HAZY CONDITIONS  
PERSIST OVER SOME AREAS OF THE WESTERN GULF DUE TO AGRICULTURAL  
FIRES IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA
 
 
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A  
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH A CENTRAL AMERICAN  
GYRE (CAG).  
 
THE BERMUDA HIGH IS INTERACTING WITH LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE, AND IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG E  
TO SE TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO  
FRESH TRADES OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE 7-10 FT OVER THE  
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, 6-9 FT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN, AND 4-7 FT OVER  
THE E CARIBBEAN.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA  
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO  
STRONG E TO SE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST  
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO DIMINISH  
ACROSS THE BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
 
 
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ALONG  
30N WEST OF 35W. THIS FEATURE IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO GENTLE SE  
WINDS, INCREASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHWEST OF THE BAHAMAS  
AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT WEST OF 55W AND NORTH  
OF 20N. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND ABOUT 300 NM EAST OF FLORIDA  
WHERE WIDESPREAD MODERATE CONVECTION DOMINATES THE COASTAL WATERS.  
IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS INCREASE TO  
MODERATE SOUTH OF 20N WITH 4-7 FT SEAS. IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC,  
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL WITH LOCALIZED FRESH NE WINDS  
OCCURRING IN THE GAPS BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG 30N  
WILL STRENGTHEN SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN WEAKEN NEXT WEEK.  
THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY GENTLE TO  
MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR  
PULSING OF MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH  
LATE SUN. MODERATE NE SWELL MAY IMPACT THE WATERS EAST OF 60W SUN  
THROUGH TUE.  
 

 
CHRISTENSEN  
 
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