411  
AXNT20 KNHC 131803  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
103 PM EST THU DEC 13 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1745 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
   
..GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING
 
 
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO  
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST, FROM 13/1200 UTC, IS FOR THE COLD  
FRONT TO BE ALONG 30N93W 26N93W 21N97W. EXPECT W-TO-NW GALE- FORCE  
WINDS, AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET, N OF 26N W OF THE COLD FRONT.  
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS  
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES  
THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N13W, TO 09N15W  
05N20W 02N27W AND 01N35W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED  
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 05N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 36W AND 52W,  
INCLUDING IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE TO  
LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 08N SOUTHWARD FROM 22W  
EASTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD  
FROM 60W EASTWARD.  
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH TEXAS. THE TROUGH IS  
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD, ACROSS AND  
THROUGH TEXAS, TOWARD THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN  
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY  
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT  
RUNS FROM NORTH FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W, TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO  
NEAR 24N90W, TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N96W.  
 
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST OF  
A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT WILL  
REACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT,  
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE ON FRIDAY,  
AND MOVE THROUGH THE BAHAMA CHANNEL ON SATURDAY. STRONG TO NEAR  
GALE FORCE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT WILL  
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF  
MEXICO WATERS, WITH 30 TO 40 KNOT WIND CONDITIONS SPREADING SOUTH  
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL GULF LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WITH  
MODERATE WEST FLOW EXPECTED ON SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SEA HEIGHTS  
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FEET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE  
TO RELAX, WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA, ALONG 20N83W 18N85W,  
TO 15N85W IN EASTERN HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N  
NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.  
 
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 66W  
AND 75W, AND TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM PUERTO RICO TO  
THE SE CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, AND AROUND JAMAICA. 24-HOUR  
RAINFALL TOTALS THAT ARE LISTED FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT  
13/120000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND  
PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.28 IN  
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA, 0.04 IN GUADELOUPE, 0.03 IN SAN JUAN IN  
PUERTO RICO.  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 07N/08N FROM 73W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND  
84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS  
ARE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH  
ALSO IS IN THE SW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  
 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL  
CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES  
TO NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE  
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE  
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF  
A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE GRADUALLY IN THE NORTHWEST  
CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE YUCATAN  
CHANNEL ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, STALL AND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE  
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG NORTH WINDS  
ARE FORECAST TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS  
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LARGE NORTH SWELL WILL REACH THE  
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY, AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE  
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC OCEAN PASSAGES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 27N56W TO 24N64W. THE FRONT  
CONTINUES AS STATIONARY FROM 24N64W TO 22N70W TO SE CUBA. BROKEN  
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE  
WEST AND NW OF THE LINE THAT RUNS THROUGH 32N44W TO 23N60W TO SE  
CUBA.  
 
ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 42W FROM 17N TO 25N. SCATTERED TO  
BROKEN TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH.  
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 38W AND 44W.  
 
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 56W/57W FROM 15N TO 22N.  
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 08N TO 22N BETWEEN 54W AND 62W.  
 
THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD, AND EXTEND  
EAST TO WEST ALONG 25N ON FRIDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH  
OUT, GRADUALLY, AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST  
PART OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. STRONG TO NEAR GALE SOUTHERLY RETURN  
WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.  
THOSE WILL BE THE WIND CONDITIONS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT  
THAT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS DURING THE  
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION  
FROM BERMUDA TO NORTHWEST CUBA ON SUNDAY NIGHT, AND FROM 31N71W  
TO CENTRAL CUBA ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL AS IT PASSES  
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ANTILLES ON TUESDAY.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
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