419
AXNT20 KNHC 110447
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SAT JUL 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0444 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST TO EAST
TRADES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO
GALE- FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF VENEZUELA
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TO AROUND
14 FT OFF COLOMBIA SAT NIGHT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 57.5W, SOUTH
OF 17N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 54W
AND 62W.
THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WAVE CAN BE FOUND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDEP).
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 19N17W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N32W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N32W TO
06N52.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 32W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
NUMEROUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF. A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS, ALONG WITH
SLIGHT SEAS, ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK,
SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE SE WINDS. FRESH E WINDS WILL PULSE
OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
GALE CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF
OF VENEZUELA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN
LOW IS SUPPORTING STRONG WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,
REACHING GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ASCAT.
SEAS WITHIN THESE WINDS PEAK TO 12 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR GALE- FORCE EASTERLY TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. WINDS WILL PULSE TO GALE-FORCE OFF COLOMBIA AND
IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. TRADES OVER THE
GULF OF HONDURAS WILL PULSE TO STRONG EACH EVENING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM NORTH OF CUBA TO 28N
AND WEST OF 78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED
NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 52.5W AND 60W. FARTHER EAST, A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE WATERS NEAR 31N15W AND EXTENDS TO 27N32WW.
GENTLE TO MODERATE N WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED
BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 25N54.5W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HIGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE,
EXCEPT FOR PULSING STRONG WINDS OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA. SEAS ARE
MODERATE OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT THROUGH THE PERIOD, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES S
OF 23N, WITH MAINLY GENTLE WINDS TO THE N. PULSING STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA AND IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE W FROM THE BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
KRV
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