987  
AXNT20 KNHC 170438  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1238 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0415 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN GUATEMALA NEAR 16N91W. THIS  
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PART OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, A  
CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND  
ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS COVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. THIS  
WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH TIME. THE  
PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN  
IS LOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR INLAND HEAVY RAINFALL, FLASH FLOODING  
AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IS HIGH. PLEASE,  
REFER TO YOUR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR SPECIFIC  
INFORMATION ABOUT THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER PATTERN.  
 
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO A  
1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N94W. THE STATIONARY  
FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER, TO 23N95W,  
TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 19N96W, AND IT CURVES WESTWARD AND  
NORTHWESTWARD TO 20N99W, INLAND IN MEXICO, TO 25N101W. THE  
FORECAST CONSISTS OF NW-TO-N GALE-FORCE WINDS FROM 25N SOUTHWARD  
FROM THE FRONT WESTWARD. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 8 FEET  
TO 14 FEET. EXPECT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR NEARLY  
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/26W FROM 15N  
SOUTHWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA THAT IS  
FROM 04N TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD. IT IS MOVING  
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS COVER THE  
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 08N TO 21N BETWEEN 50W  
AND 63W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO MAY  
BE MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ.  
 
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W FROM 20N AND SE  
CUBA SOUTHWARD. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO IS IN  
THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM  
THE BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SOUTHWARD FROM 70W  
WESTWARD.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR  
10N14W TO 08N24W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 08N28W 04N36W. ISOLATED  
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 10N SOUTHWARD  
FROM 40W EASTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG  
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA THAT RUNS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W  
AND 50W.  
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA, PASSING  
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA, INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE GULF OF  
MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. PLEASE  
REFERENCE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDELY  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 27N  
SOUTHWARD FROM 91W WESTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ON  
TOP OF THE AREA OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.  
 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N  
SOUTHWARD FROM 88W EASTWARD. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PART OF  
THE LARGER-SCALE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW, THAT ALSO COVERS THE  
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N SOUTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD, ACROSS THE  
BAHAMAS, AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM PUERTO RICO WESTWARD.  
 
THE CURRENT N GALE-FORCE WINDS, THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF THE  
STATIONARY FRONT, WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH FRESH TO  
STRONG WINDS N OF THERE AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WIND SPEEDS  
WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND  
FRIDAY, AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE FRONT MAY  
BE REINFORCED, AND PUSHED E LATE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FOR MORE INFORMATION  
ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN  
GYRE, AND THE 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN MEXICO, JUST  
OUTSIDE THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA, NEAR 16N91W.  
 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM  
PUERTO RICO WESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG  
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA  
SOUTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD.  
 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS, EXCEPT LOCALLY STRONG NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS,  
THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, S OF HISPANIOLA, AND IN THE  
LEE OF EASTERN CUBA, THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N  
SOUTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD, ACROSS THE BAHAMAS, AND IN THE  
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM PUERTO RICO WESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE  
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 24N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W, AND FROM  
27N SOUTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD.  
 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN  
FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 50W EASTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG  
24N37W 20N36W 16N36W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE  
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.  
 
GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW N OF 27N, AND MODERATE TO FRESH  
TRADE WINDS S OF 27N, WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL  
DROP S OF 31N ON THURSDAY, WITH FRESHENING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS  
THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE DECREASING ON SATURDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE  
THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE NW PART OF THE AREA ON  
SATURDAY NIGHT, ONCE AGAIN WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS  
BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
MT  
 
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