299
AXNT20 KNHC 260943
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED NOV 26 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH STAYS MOSTLY ACROSS NORTH AFRICA. AN ITCZ
EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM NEAR THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE TO 01N47W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 05N-08N
EAST OF 30W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS CAUSING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS NEAR COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AS OF 0900 UTC, A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO 29N92W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
TO S TEXAS. PREFRONTAL TROUGHS ARE NOTED FROM 23N96W TO 27N95W AND
27N92W TO 30N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
NORTH OF 23N AND WEST OF 90W. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF ARE MODERATE
OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW GULF IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 92W-96W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW GULF LATER THIS
MORNING AND STEADILY SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM NEAR TAMPA TO TAMPICO TONIGHT, FROM THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TO NEAR VERACRUZ THU NIGHT, AND THEN EXIT THE GULF BY FRI
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
COLD FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG RETURN FLOW SHOULD SET UP IN THE NW GULF FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY EMERGE FROM THE TEXAS
COAST SAT NIGHT AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE W GULF ON
SUN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER NW COLOMBIA/SW CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORCING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES WITH LOCALLY NEAR GALE AND SEAS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. TRADES IN THE E AND NW CARIBBEAN ARE
MODERATE TO FRESH WITH SEAS 4-7 FT. THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR COSTA RICA AND
WESTERN PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUSTAIN FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES WITH LOCALLY NEAR GALE THROUGH FRI MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING ON FRI AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES THROUGH EARLY FRI. LOOKING
AHEAD, A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRI
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS. THE FRONT SHOULD
STALL AND WASH OUT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SAT WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 28N55W TO 28N70W WITH FRESH
NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ALONG THE FRONT EAST OF 65W. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS PRESENT FROM 22N47W TO 31N41W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN
FRESH TO STRONG ENE WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS IN THE APPROACH TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. FARTHER EAST, NE WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG WITH
SEAS 6-8 FT WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF MOROCCO. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
ARE MODERATE OF WEAKER WITH SEAS 4-7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH NE WINDS ALONG THE FRONT EAST
OF 65W WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY, AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. THE
BERMUDA HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN FRESH
TO STRONG ENE WINDS IN THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ON THU. TONIGHT, A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF OF THE NE FLORIDA COAST, BRINGING WITH IT
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD EXTEND FROM 31N72W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THU NIGHT, FROM
31N63W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY FRI NIGHT, AND THEN DISSIPATING
FROM 31N57W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SAT NIGHT. A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING
INCREASING NE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT,
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST SUN.
LANDSEA
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