013  
AXNT20 KNHC 141723  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1805 UTC WED APR 14 2021  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1715 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
WINDWARD ISLANDS ASHFALL ADVISORY: AN ASHFALL ADVISORY REMAINS  
IN EFFECT FOR LA SOUFRIERE VOLCANO THAT IS ON THE ISLAND OF ST.  
VINCENT NEAR 13.3N 61.2W. THE VOLCANO CURRENTLY IS UNDERGOING  
OCCASIONAL EMISSIONS FROM ITS SUMMIT. THE VOLCANO COULD  
ERUPT AT ANY TIME WITH LITTLE NOTICE. ASH MAY BE REACHING THE  
SURFACE OF THE OCEAN, AND LOW-LEVEL VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED.  
MARINERS WHO ARE TRANSITING THE WATERS NEAR SAINT VINCENT SHOULD  
EXERCISE CAUTION. IF YOU ENCOUNTER VOLCANIC ASH OR VOLCANIC  
DEBRIS, PLEASE REPORT THE OBSERVATION TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE  
CENTER, AT 305-229-4424.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA  
NEAR 10N14W TO 04N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N23W TO 02N43W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N TO 08N BETWEEN 10W-22W.  
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INCLUDING  
THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM 27N85W TO 23N80W. THE NEXT FRONTAL  
SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES, WITH  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTH OF  
29N BETWEEN 88W-93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS RELATIVELY  
CLOUD-FREE. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATE DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH  
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN.  
 
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL  
GULF LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN  
THROUGH WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN GULF  
THU, THEN STALL AND WEAKEN ON FRI. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL  
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF ON SAT, WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS  
AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
AN ASHFALL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LA SOUFRIERE VOLCANO  
ON ST. VINCENT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION  
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.  
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE BASIN AT THIS  
TIME, ACCORDING TO LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE 2 TO 3  
FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD  
PASSAGE, AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE.  
 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN  
THROUGH SAT, EXCEPT PULSING LOCALLY TO FRESH TO STRONG THROUGH  
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA, AND NORTH OF COLOMBIA  
THROUGH MID WEEK, THEN IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS  
WEEKEND. SE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE NORTHWEST  
CARIBBEAN STARTING EARLY FRI. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
AN ASHFALL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LA SOUFRIERE VOLCANO  
ON THE ISLAND OF ST. VINCENT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL  
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC  
WATERS. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1003 MB LOW NEAR  
35N55W TO 24N65W TO 22N75W, THEN BECOMES WEAK FROM THAT POINT  
TO 24N80W. TO THE EAST, ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N51W  
TO 24N58W TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS  
ARE NOTED ALONG AND WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THIS FRONT, WITH FRESH  
NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING WEST OF IT. SEAS ARE 8 TO 12 FT NORTH  
OF THE SECONDARY FRONT, AND 8-11 FT ALONG THE PRIMARY FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY. SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE  
BASIN, ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N29W. SEAS  
ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN,  
EXCEPT 3-4 NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.  
 
THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND  
PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY TODAY. FRESH TO  
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR NORTH  
OF THE FRONT AND EAST OF 70W WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AND  
WEAKEN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA  
INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS BY EARLY FRI, THEN STALL NORTH OF THE  
BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
 
ERA  
 
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