550
AXNT20 KNHC 090457
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI OCT 9 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE ISAIAS IS CENTERED NEAR 25.4N 88.4W AT 09/0300 UTC OR
260 NM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO, MOVING NE AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF BETWEEN 83W-90W. SEAS UP TO
32 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE U.S. NORTHERN
GULF COAST ON FRIDAY AND MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM ISAIAS ARE AFFECTING
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ISAIAS NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS AND
EXTENDS ALONG 26W, SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N
TO 10N BETWEEN THE W COAST OF AFRICA AND 30W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH
AXIS IS ALONG 78W, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.
AT THIS TIME, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES
WESTWARD TO 1014 MB LOW NEAR 12N33W TO 12N40W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 12N40W TO 10N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND E OF 38W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON HURRICANE ISAIAS.
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO NEAR
25N94W. CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EXTENDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE
FRONT IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS TO THE NORTH OF
THE FRONT. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT WITH THESE WINDS PER ALTIMETER
DATA. ELSEWHERE, FRESH W TO NW WINDS WRAP CYCLONICALLY ACROSS
THE SW GULF AND INTO THE WESTERN YUCATAN, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 8
FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL MOVE TO 27.1N 87.6W FRI
MORNING, 29.9N 87.1W FRI EVENING, MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 32.2N 87.3W SAT MORNING, MOVE INLAND AND
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 34.1N 87.5W SAT EVENING,
INLAND TO 36.1N 86.1W SUN MORNING, AND INLAND TO 38.0N 83.0W SUN
EVENING. ISAIAS WILL DISSIPATE LATE MON. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE
CYCLONE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BASIN CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF ISAIAS, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF BY SUN EVENING RESULTING IN
MODERATE OR WEAKER RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH
MIDWEEK. IN THE WAKE OF ISAIAS, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF BY SUN EVENING RESULTING IN MODERATE
OR WEAKER RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION, EXCEPT FOR FRESH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
NORTH OF 19N AND WEST OF 85W. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, A TROPICAL
WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 76W IS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS AT NIGHT
FRI THROUGH SUN. HURRICANE ISAIAS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
AMERICA IS PRODUCING FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND THESE WINDS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FRI. MEANWHILE, A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 78W IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE WEAKENING.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL,
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT
AND W OF 75W. MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS PREVAIL N OF 28N BETWEEN
59W AND 66W, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 27N58W, AND EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE WESTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, A DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH HAS
INDUCED A SURFACE TROUGH BELOW IT, AND EXTENDS FROM 27N48W TO
20N53W. THIS DEEP LAYERED FEATURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N AND E OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO ABOUT 37W.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE, ASSOCIATED WITH THE AZORES HIGH, DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
OVER NW AFRICA, IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS N OF 20N AND E OF 44W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE
ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND
THE EASTERN PORTION WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT TONIGHT WHILE
ITS WESTERN PORTION WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT ON SAT.
WINDS WILL REACH FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS OFF NE FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT AS HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL BE TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF AMERICA. THESE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE AT FRESH SPEEDS
EARLY ON SAT BEFORE WEAKENING TO MODERATE SPEEDS BY SUN MORNING.
OTHERWISE, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT NE-E WINDS OF FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS AND ROUGH SEAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER THE
EASTERN WATERS, MAINLY N OF 25N, SUN INTO MON. LOOKING AHEAD, A
NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE U.S. SOUTHEASTERN COAST
EARLY ON MON AND MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N THROUGH TUE
NIGHT WHILE IT WEAKENS.
ERA
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