346
AXNT20 KNHC 102148
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED FEB 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: LARGE NW SWELL RANGING
FROM MAINLY 12 TO 22 FT WITH 12 SECOND PERIODS COVERS MUCH OF THE
AREA NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 28W AND 61W. A SOFAR BUOY INDICATED 22
FT NEAR 30N47W. THE SWELL IS THE RESULT OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SWELL WILL
SLOWLY DECAY FROM WEST TO EAST ALLOWING FOR THESE SEAS TO DROP
BELOW 12 FT (4 M) FOR MOST AREAS BY EARLY WED EVENING. MARINERS
ARE URGED TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA WILL LEAD TO
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,
INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND
JAMAICA INTO WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE-FORCE
TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. SEAS WITH THESE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 11 FT (2.5 TO 3.5 M) RANGE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THESE EVENTS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 05N08W TO 01N15W AND TO 01N25W,
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO THE THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 00N TO 05N
BETWEEN 10W AND 20W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF, ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR
28N74W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF IS GENERALLY ALLOWING FOR
GENTLE TO MODERATE MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTH WINDS OFFSHORE NE
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. BOTH LATEST BUOY AND ALTIMETER SATELLITE
DATA PASSES INDICATE SEAS OF ABOUT 2 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR
LOWER SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT IN THE NORTHEAST GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE GULF WATERS
THROUGH LATE WEEK, BRINGING A GENTLE TO MODERATE MAINLY
SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT JUST
WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS.
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL. LOOKING AHEAD, SOUTHERLY
WINDS MAY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ON SUN
FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON A GALE WARNING
IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLOMBIA.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE CARIBBEAN, WHICH IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS
OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND HISPANIOLA. SEAS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE 7 TO 10 FT, MAINLY DUE THE WINDS, BUT
WITH ALSO A COMPONENT OF NORTHERLY SWELL SLIPPING THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE FROM THE ATLANTIC. GENTLE TO MODERATE WIND AND 5 TO 7 FT
SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES FORECAST FOR
GALE-WINDS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT, THE SAME
INDUCING PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THOSE WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND THE WATERS BETWEEN
CUBA AND JAMAICA INTO WED NIGHT. IN ADDITION, LARGE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH SWELL WILL IMPACT THE MONA PASSAGE, ANEGADA PASSAGE, AND
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WATERS INTO WED CREATING HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON AN ONGOING
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT.
A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR THE WESTERN AZORES TO 22N58W. FRESH
TO STRONG W TO NW WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT NORTH OF 29N AS FAR WEST
OF 65W, AND STRONG SW WINDS WITHIN 90NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH
OF 28N. 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N74W. GENTLE
BREEZE AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS IN N SWELL ARE NOTED WEST OF 75W.
MODERATE BREEZES AND 8 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE
WEST OF THE FRONT. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 18N55W. GENTLE BREEZES ARE NOTED ALONG THE
RIDGE AXIS, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OFF AFRICA AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC. SEAS ARE 7 TO
11 FT IN NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MOST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH, SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW WATERS STARTING TONIGHT, THEN
REACH STRONG SPEEDS WED, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ROUGH N OF 28N.
THESE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH WED NIGHT,
BEFORE SHIFTING TO FRESH TO STRONG NW AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
NORTH WATERS INTO THU. VERY ROUGH SEAS IN NW TO N SWELL E OF 65W
WILL GRADUALLY DECAY BELOW 12 FT FROM W TO E TONIGHT, WITH
IMPROVED SEAS BY WED. WAVE HEIGHTS SE OF BERMUDA ARE NOW AROUND 15
FT.
CHRISTENSEN
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