016
AXNT20 KNHC 040421
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN OCT 4 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0400 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 44W AND 54W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG
78W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. THE WAVE
APPEARS TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 16N17W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N30W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N30W TO 07N45W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE,
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH MAINLY E
OF 20W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
GULF REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND RUNS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA IS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY
FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS TO EXIST E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SEAS ARE
GENERALLY MODERATE, EXCEPT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SEAS ARE
IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WILL FOLLOW A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE FAR NW GULF OFF THE
TEXAS COAST TONIGHT, THEN ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TO VERACRUZ
THROUGH TUE. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH LATE SUN, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO
S WINDS AND 4-6 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF.
LOOKING AHEAD, THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MIDWEEK
AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY MOVING FRONT, WHICH WILL STALL OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF BY MID WEEK. FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE FRONT, WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N
WINDS POSSIBLE OFF VERACRUZ THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PERSIST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING
THE GREATER ANTILLES, THE CAYMAN ISLANDS, AND PARTS OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN UNDER A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTS MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, WITH FRESH WINDS
PULSING OFF COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT NIGHT. THESE
WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY MIDWEEK, AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD, ALTHOUGH FRESH WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO
PULSE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH FRI. OTHERWISE, GUST TO
GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY LATE SUN MORNING AS
THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES.
OF NOTE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, MAINLY
OVER HAITI AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA. A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN TOWARD HISPANIOLA AND DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR
THE ISLAND BY SUN. THIS, COMBINED WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
LOCAL EFFECTS AS DAYTIME HEATING, LOCAL SEA BREEZES AND MOUNTAIN
UPSLOPE LIFTING, WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE
AREA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED N OF HISPANIOLA IS GENERATING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS MORE CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 61W AND 71W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THIS AREA, AND EXTENDS FROM 27N64W TO
20N68W. TO THE E, ANOTHER TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N58W TO
26N61W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS
ELSEWHERE, ANCHORED BY A FEW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NE OF THE BAHAMAS WHILE MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EVIDENT BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA, AND IN
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FRESH NE WINDS OFFSHORE WESTERN SAHARA
AND SOUTHERN MOROCCO, INCLUDING BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS. SEAS
ARE 6 TO 8 FT WITHIN THESE WIND SPEEDS. ELSEWHERE MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE WEAK RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL OFF THE NE
FLORIDA COAST TUE. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUT STAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF FAR NE
FLORIDA THROUGH MID WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL
PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
ERA
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