532  
AXNT20 KNHC 241728  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1805 UTC WED JUL 24 2024  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1700 UTC.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 20W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD, MOVING W  
AT 10 KT. PLEASE SEE THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR  
INFORMATION ON CONVECTION.  
 
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 54W FROM 16N  
SOUTHWARD, MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED  
AT THIS TIME.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR  
20N16W TO 11N31W TO 08N48W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N48W TO  
07N53W AND THEN FROM 07N55W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 06N57W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 16W  
AND 27W AND FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 31W AND 53W.  
   
..GULF OF MEXICO
 
 
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB  
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA. A TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF  
SOUTH TEXAS/MEXICO FROM 26N97W TO 29N96W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO  
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OFF THE NORTHEAST MEXICO AND TEXAS  
COAST, FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 98W AND 93W. THESE STORMS ARE  
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LIKELY GUSTY WINDS WITH LOCALIZED  
ROUGH SEAS. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER TROUGH IS NOTED ALONG THE FLORIDA  
PANHANDLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
NORTHEAST GULF, N OF 28N AND E OF 86W.  
 
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE NORTHERN GULF NOTED BY THE  
LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. MODERATE SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE  
SOUTHEAST GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN ADDITION TO THE  
WESTERN GULF. IN THE WESTERN GULF, SEAS RANGE 4 TO 5 FT. IN THE  
EASTERN BASIN, SEAS ARE 2 TO 3 FT.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN  
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY GENTLE TO  
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. WINDS WILL FRESHEN UP  
AT NIGHT OFF NW YUCATAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED TO  
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF  
ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, ARE  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS NORTH OF THE BASIN, LEADING TO A LARGE AREA  
OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS IN THIS  
AREA RANGE 6 TO 8 FT CONFIRMED BY AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS.  
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN BASIN, WINDS ARE MODERATE TO  
LOCALLY FRESH. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT IN THE EASTERN BASIN AND TO 4 FT  
IN THE NW BASIN.  
 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE SW  
CARIBBEAN ALONG THE NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COAST NORTH  
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, FROM 09N TO 15N AND W OF 79W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM  
11N TO 16N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC  
WILL SUSTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE  
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, EASTERLY WINDS WILL  
REMAIN FRESH TO STRONG, EXPANDING TO PORTIONS OF THE SW AND NW  
BASIN THIS WEEKEND. SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN WILL BE MODERATE TO  
ROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, HIGHER IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN  
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. OTHERWISE, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE ALSO  
EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF  
THE RIDGE.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
 
 
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVES  
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.  
 
THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE BASIN.  
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIMETER OF THE HIGH, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NE FLORIDA COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. AN  
UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS GIVING WAY TO  
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN  
62W AND 75W. A TROUGH IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH THIS  
CONVECTION FROM 27N67W TO 23N70W WITH MODERATE WINDS ADJACENT TO  
IT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN  
ATLANTIC WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.  
 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, A TROUGH IS NOTED ON THE EDGE OF  
SAHARAN DUST FROM 26N52W TO 19N56W. DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD DUST  
ACROSS THIS AREA, LIMITED CONVECTION IS NOTED. MODERATE TO FRESH  
WINDS ARE NOTED FROM 24N SOUTHWARD TO THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH WITH  
SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. FROM 24N TO 31N, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE UNDER  
THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS.  
 
IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE NOTED AS THE  
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH IS ALSO INFLUENCING THIS AREA. GENTLE TO  
MODERATE NE WINDS PREVAIL WITH SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL  
ATLANTIC WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE  
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH E TO  
SE WINDS SOUTH OF 29N THROUGH THU MORNING, THEN GENTLE TO MODERATE  
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER FORECAST PERIOD.  
HOWEVER, PULSING EASTERLY WINDS IN THE APPROACHES OF THE WINDWARD  
PASSAGE AND OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA ADJACENT WATERS WILL BE FRESH  
TO STRONG THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 

 
AKR  
 
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