044  
AXNT20 KNHC 220524  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
124 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0515 UTC.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W FROM 05N-21N,  
MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS  
MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE WAVE'S ENVIRONMENT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED INLAND MAINLY SOUTH OF 10N,  
AFFECTING EASTERN VENEZUELA.  
 
A CENTRAL AMERICA/EPAC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ITS AXIS ALONG 88W  
AND SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. THE WAVE CORRESPONDS WITH  
A 700 MB TROUGH, AS INDICATED BY MODEL ANALYSES. AT THIS TIME,  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT OVER THE EPAC WATERS,  
WHERE THE WAVE MEETS WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 13N17W  
TO 11N22W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N22W TO 08N29W, THEN FROM  
06N34W TO 06N41W, THEN RESUMES NEAR 06N47W TO 05N53W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE  
ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-40W.  
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FROM 26N81W TO 26N90W,  
THEN BECOMES STATIONARY FROM THAT POINT TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR  
26N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW TO  
20N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS WEST OF 92W. FRESH  
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER  
THE NORTHWEST GULF WATERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOW AND FRONT.  
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF E OF  
96W THROUGH TONIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE GULF ON  
MON. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MON NIGHT,  
THEN EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THU  
NIGHT AND THE NE GULF BY FRI, DRAGGING A NEW COLD FRONT ACROSS THE  
SW GULF. THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY SLACKENS ALLOWING FOR  
THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO SLIGHTLY DIMINISH MON THROUGH EARLY  
TUE. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUE OR WED AS  
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE NW GULF AND TRACKS  
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE BASIN. SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR  
DETAILS.  
 
THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG 10N FROM  
COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 75W. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THIS TROUGH. FARTHER EAST, TOTAL  
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OVER  
EASTERN VENEZUELA AND SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE ANOTHER  
TROPICAL WAVE PREVAILS. WITH THESE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION  
IS SOUTH OF 10N MAINLY AFFECTING VENEZUELA.  
 
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE LATE TONIGHT IN  
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. BY EARLY TUE  
AFTERNOON, THESE WINDS DIMINISH TO FRESH SPEEDS. ELSEWHERE,  
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WED, THEN  
DIMINISH TO THE GENTLE INTENSITY THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE TROPICAL  
WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE  
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED AS IT WEAKENS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST  
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N64W TO THE EASTERN COAST  
OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM  
OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 27N AND W OF 70W, SUPPORTING  
THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL  
ATLANTIC NEAR 28N54W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW CENTER  
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN  
50W-54W. SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN  
WITH FAIR WEATHER.  
 
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE  
FRONT OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC THROUGH MON NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH  
PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE HIGH  
PRESSURE AND FRONT WILL WEAKEN BY MID-WEEK, ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO  
DIMINISH AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE. THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN  
BEGINNING ON THU EAST OF NE FLORIDA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE  
N ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKS  
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF THE MEXICO TO ACROSS NORTHERN  
FLORIDA.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
 
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