170
AXNT20 KNHC 310517
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2020
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
..HEAVY RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA
A CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE IS OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC, WITH
THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE GYRE ENCOMPASSING THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS N OF THE EQUATOR AND E OF 100W, INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE
W
PART OF NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE GYRE WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD, GRADUALLY ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. WINDS
AROUND THE GYRE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR THESE
AREAS WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER, AND PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL, THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN GUATEMALA, EL SALVADOR, SOUTHERN
HONDURAS, WESTERN NICARAGUA, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO E
OF VERACRUZ AND EASTERN OAXACA. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES FOR LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
TD TWO-E ON 31/0300 UTC IS CENTERED WITHIN THE GYRE CIRCULATION
IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC NEAR 13.0N 90.6W. THE DEPRESSION
WILL MOVE INLAND OVER GUATEMALA TODAY AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE LARGER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN GYRE, WHICH WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO WELL AFTER THE TD DISSIPATES.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 83W, FROM 20N SOUTHWARD,
MOVING WEST AT 10 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 15N AND W OF 80W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MERGE INTO THE BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE
LATER THIS MORNING.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
TO 06N28W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N28W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 00N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 10W-22W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 03N-03S
BETWEEN 40W-50W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 30N FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO E TEXAS.. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N96W TO 19N94W IN
THE WESTERN GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-26N
BETWEEN 88W-95W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE OVER THE SW GULF W OF THE TROUGH,
AND 2-3 FT ELSEWHERE.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF EARLY MON,
THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE IN THE EASTERN GULF BY EARLY TUE. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF ON MON AND TUE AS
A CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST MEXICO AND
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN, AND WILL
BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE
SUNDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,
AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE.
A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF W CUBA WILL MOVE ACROSS W CARIBBEAN
THROUGH SUN WITH LITTLE IMPACT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT AS CENTRAL
AMERICAN GYRE DEVELOPS OVER N CENTRAL AMERICA AND S MEXICO. AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH REBUILDS TO THE NORTH, E TRADE WINDS NORTH OF
COLOMBIA SHOULD INCREASE ON THU.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N59W.
A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTER IS NEAR 31N59W WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 25N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
26N70W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN MAINLY ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS IS SEEN FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 00W-60W. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 20N. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF 20N. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6
FT RANGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD, AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS LIKELY.
A RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN SUN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF 31N SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM
BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA ON MON AFTERNOON, STALL ALONG 25N BY TUE
AFTERNOON, AND DISSIPATE BY WED. NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
INCREASE TO MODERATE OR STRONG ON MON AND TUE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TRADE WINDS BY MID
WEEK SOUTH OF 22N.
FORMOSA/CHRISTENSEN
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