762  
AXNT20 KNHC 272346  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
0005 UTC WED SEP 28 2022  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2330 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
MAJOR HURRICANE IAN IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF  
MEXICO NEAR 24N 83.2W AT 2100 UTC, OR 43 NM SSW OF THE DRY  
TORTUGAS, FL, MOVING N AT 9 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952  
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 125 KT.  
SAN JUAN Y MARTINEZ, CUBA RECORDED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 112 KT WHEN  
IAN PASSED OVER CUBA EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE SAME STATION  
MEASURED 7.95 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE 24 HR PERIOD ENDING AT  
27/1200 UTC TODAY. THE CITY OF PINAR DEL RIO EXPERIENCED THE CALM  
EYE OF HURRICANE IAN, WHICH LASTED FOR 1 HR 30 MIN. TROPICAL  
STORM FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD 120 NM FROM THE CENTER.  
SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER ARE OCCURRING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL,  
WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO, IN THE  
AREA FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED  
AT 30 FT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EYE. SATAN SHOAL BUOY, LOCATED  
JUST TO THE SW OF KEY WEST, HAS BEEN REPORTING SEAS OF 15 FT IN  
SE WAVES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS  
SEEN WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM  
NE SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION  
IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM NE QUADRANT, 360 NM SE QUADRANT,  
AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG  
CONVECTION IS FOUND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 510 NM NE QUADRANT, 300 NM SE  
QUADRANT AND 210 NM W SEMICIRCLE. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE  
CENTER OF IAN IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS  
EVENING AND APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA WITHIN THE  
HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON WED AND WED NIGHT. STRENGTHENING IS  
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. IAN IS FORECAST TO APPROACH  
THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR  
HURRICANE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE  
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE  
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST NHC  
FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR  
MORE DETAILS.  
 
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 14.5N34.5W IS PRODUCING  
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY IN ITS NE  
QUADRANT FROM 14.5N TO 17N BETWEEN 31.5W-35W. THE DISTURBANCE HAS  
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN  
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FOR THE  
NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BY THU. PLEASE  
READ THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV  
FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 22W FROM 06N-20N,  
MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE  
AXIS FROM 13.5N TO 18N.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SW CORNER OF MAURITANIA NEAR  
17N16W TO 08N26W AND 09N30W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES FROM THE  
1008 MB LOW NEAR 14.5N34.5W TO 10N45W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM  
10N45W TO 12.5N59W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE  
SECTIONS ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS  
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AFRICAN COAST BETWEEN 08W AND 16W, AND  
FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION  
DOTS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND E CARIBBEAN FROM 09N-17N BETWEEN  
52W-63W.  
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
MAJOR HURRICANE IAN HAS EMERGED NORTH OF WESTERN CUBA AND IS  
MOVING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST  
COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES  
SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON HURRICANE IAN. STRONG WINDS AND SEAS  
EXCEEDING 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH IAN ARE LOCATED SOUTH OF 27N AND  
EAST OF 89W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY, FL NEAR  
29N82.5W TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE, TX WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY.  
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING N OF THE FRONT AND  
MERGE ACROSS THE NE GULF WITH STRONG WINDS EXTENDING OVER 300 NMTO  
THE NW OF IAN. SEAS ARE 5-9 FT ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY MODERATE N  
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF, EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG  
ALONG THE COAST NEAR VERACRUZ. SEAS ARE 3-6 FT ACROSS THE W AND SW  
GULF, EXCEPT FOR OFFSHORE VERACRUZ, WHERE 6-8 FT SEAS PREVAIL.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM  
19N-26N BETWEEN 93W-98W.  
 
MAJOR HURRICANE IAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF TONIGHT,  
PASSING W OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  
IAN IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT, AND WILL REACH  
NEAR 25.3N 82.9W AROUND MIDNIGHT, REACH NEAR 26.6N 82.5W MIDDAY  
WED, ENTER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST WED EVENING, REACHING NEAR 27.6N  
82W AROUND MIDNIGHT WED, THEN CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NNE ACROSS  
THE STATE THU THROUGH THU EVENING, REACHING THE NE FLORIDA COAST  
EARLY FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS  
THE BASIN FRI THROUGH SAT AS IAN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF  
THE GULF.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
NARROW LINES AND BANDS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXTEND  
WELL SOUTH OF IAN AND ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 17.5N NORTHWARD  
AND EAST OF 79W TO THE YUCATAN COAST. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF  
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAIL ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM  
10N TO 16N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. AS OF 2100 UTC, STRONG TO TROPICAL  
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ASSUME TO STILL BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE  
CARIBBEAN WATERS OF WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTH OF 20N. SEAS OF 7-10  
FT PERSIST ACROSS THESE NEAR SHORE WATERS.  
 
ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN  
CARIBBEAN FROM PUERTO RICO TO NW VENEZUELA. THE UPPER-TROUGH IS  
INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO ITS  
EAST, FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 61W-72W, INCLUDING OVER ST. LUCIA AND  
MARTINIQUE. IN THE SW CARIBBEAN, THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH  
IS INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION  
DESCRIBED ABOVE. OUTSIDE OF IAN'S CIRCULATION, MODERATE E TRADE  
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 74W.  
GENTLE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEAS OF 3-5 FT PREVAIL  
EAST OF 77W.  
 
MAJOR HURRICANE IAN IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO,  
AND WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE NW CARIBBEAN COMPLETLY TONIGHT.  
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NORTHWEST  
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AS IAN CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION,  
ALTHOUGH LARGE N SWELL WILL PERSIST IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH  
LATE FRI. ELSEWHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO  
MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER  
BANDS OF HURRICANE IAN ARE AFFECTING WATERS TO THE WEST OF 76W.  
THE STRONGEST OF THIS CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST  
BAHAMAS TO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TO THE N CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA ALONG  
78W. SUSTAINED WNDS OF 25 KT AND GREATER ASSOCIATED WITH IAN ARE  
CURRENTLY SPREASING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST  
FLORIDA. FOR MORE DETAILS ON MAJOR HURRICANE IAN, PLEASE SEE THE  
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.  
 
ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 24N58W IS INDUCING A  
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR IT. MODERATE E WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT  
PREVAIL OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 15N-31N BETWEEN 35W-70W. FARTHER  
EAST, A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 25N26W IS THE REMNANT OF  
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNNING NE-SW GOES  
THROUGH THE LOW FROM 27N23W TO 21N28W. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 20W-28W. A MORNING ASCAT  
PASS SHOWS STRONG NE TO E WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW  
FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 20W-29W.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MAJOR HURRICANE IAN WILL MOVE  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF THROUGH WED BEFORE MOVING INLAND AND  
WEAKENING TO TROPICAL STORM OVER FLORIDA NEAR 28.5N 81.5W THU  
AFTERNOON. IAN WILL CONTINUE INLAND TO 29.4N 81.2W FRI MORNING,  
AND 31.0N 81.1W FRI AFTERNOON, BEFORE MOVING NORTH OF AREA THROUGH  
SAT. THE WIND FIELD ASOCIATED WITH IAN WILL EXPAND AS IT MOVES  
ACROSS FLORIDA WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT, AND EXTEND INTO THE  
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM SE FLORIDA TO THE NE COASTS. STRONG  
SE WINDS WILL EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO 77W DURING  
THIS TIME. EXPECT DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS OFF NORTHEAST  
FLORIDA STARTING WED, WITH TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE CONDITIONS  
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.  
 

 
STRIPLING  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page