803
AXNT20 KNHC 120842
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON JAN 12 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF FROM NEAR S FLORIDA TO N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE
CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE IT IS STALLING. GALE FORCE NW TO N
WINDS TO 40 KT WITH SEAS TO 18 FT ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SW GULF
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS FOLLOW THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND
STALL FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY TUE MORNING. CONDITIONS IN THE SW GULF
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT INTO TUE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10.5N14W AND
CONTINUES TO 04N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N20W TO THE COAST OF
NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 01N TO 09N BETWEEN 22W AND 45W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF FROM NEAR S FLORIDA TO N
OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE IT IS
STALLING. GALE FORCE NW TO N WINDS TO 40 KT WITH SEAS TO 18 FT ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE SW GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS FOLLOW THE FRONT
ELSEWHERE. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE ANALYZED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE FAR SE GULF AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL FROM WESTERN
CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY TUE MORNING. CONDITIONS IN THE SW GULF WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TONIGHT INTO TUE. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY WED. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE BASIN WITH INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS BY WED NIGHT, WITH THAT FRONT RAPIDLY SHIFTING SE OF
THE BASIN THU. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NE-E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E
BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED IN THE CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS WILL
PULSE OFFSHORE OF NW COLOMBIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE REGION AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA, RESULTING IN ROUGH SEAS. PULSING
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA,
IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BY TUE MORNING
WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE
NW PART OF THE BASIN THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST W OF BERMUDA TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS BUILDING BEHIND IT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
SW NORTH ATLANTIC, WEST OF 55W, IS UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
THAT SUPPORTS MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT 64W AND NORTH OF 20N. THE
INTERACTION OF THIS FEATURE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUSTAINS
SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE FAR NE ATLANTIC. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY
WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT ARE NOTED BETWEEN 42W AND 55W. MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND SEAS OF 5-9 FT ARE FOUND SOUTH OF
25N AND EAST OF 40W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AS
IT DISSIPATES ON TUE. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE NW WATERS BY WED
NIGHT, REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS LATE THU
NIGHT. AT THAT TIME, GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT NEAR 31N WITH BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS.
LEWITSKY
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