324
AXNT20 KNHC 120443
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON JAN 12 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0425 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF REGION AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR NAPLES, FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE IT TERMINATES AS STATIONARY. STRONG GALE
FORCE NW TO N WINDS OF 45 KT WITH SEAS TO 21 FT ARE OCCURRING OVER
THE SW GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS FOLLOW THE FRONT ELSEWHERE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, THE SE GULF AND
THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MON MORNING, THEN WILL WEAKEN AND
STALL FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY TUE MORNING. CONDITIONS IN THE SW GULF
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W AND
CONTINUES TO 04N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N17W TO 03N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 13N BETWEEN 25W AND
50W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA
TO 24N87W TO 18N94W. OUTSIDE OF THE GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT, FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN, WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE FRONT. MODERATE NE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE ANALYZED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE FAR SE GULF AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
FOR THE FORECAST, OUTSIDE OF STRONG COLD FRONT, MODERATE OR
LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH EARLY WED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE
BASIN WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BY WED NIGHT, WITH
THAT FRONT RAPIDLY SHIFTING SE OF THE BASIN THU.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NE-E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS
CAPTURED PEAK WINDS OF 28 KT OFF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE
OFFSHORE OF NW COLOMBIA THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA, RESULTING IN ROUGH SEAS. THEN, FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT. AFTERWARDS, FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL THERE. PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO
E WINDS ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA, IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE,
AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BY TUE MORNING WHILE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NW
PART OF THE BASIN THU.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO JUPITER,
FLORIDA. A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE UNITED STATES FORCES FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC, WEST OF 55W, IS UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT THAT SUPPORTS MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT 54W AND NORTH OF 20N. THE
INTERACTION OF THIS FEATURE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUSTAINS
SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE FAR NE ATLANTIC. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY
WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT ARE NOTED BETWEEN 40W AND 55W. MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND SEAS OF 5-9 FT ARE FOUND SOUTH OF
25N AND EAST OF 40W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST THAT HAS
ALREADY MOVED OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST, EXTENDING FROM 31N74W TO
NEAR FORT PIERCE, FLORIDA. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM NEAR
BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY MON MORNING. THEREAFTER, THE
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AS IT DISSIPATES ON TUE. THEN, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MAY ENTER THE NW WATERS BY WED NIGHT, REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA
TO THE SE BAHAMAS LATE THU NIGHT. AT THAT TIME, GALE CONDITIONS
AND BUILDING SEAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT N OF 29N.
DELGADO
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