295  
AXNT20 KNHC 182325  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
0005 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2315 UTC.  
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES  
 
HURRICANE TEDDY IS CENTERED NEAR 23.1N 57.0W AT 18/2100 UTC OR  
450 NM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 12 KT.  
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED  
WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO  
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED 130 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT AND  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED 200 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT  
AND THE S SEMICIRCLE. TEDDY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NW FOR  
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, TEDDY WILL BE APPROACHING  
BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE  
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND A WEAKENING TREND IS  
FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE THIS WEEKEND. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY  
TEDDY ARE REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST  
OF SOUTH AMERICA. THESE SWELLS SPREAD WESTWARD TO THE GREATER  
ANTILLES, THE BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE  
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA THIS WEEKEND. IT IS LIKELY FOR THE  
SWELLS TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATCPAT5.SHTML, AND THE FORECAST/  
ADVISORY AT HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATCMAT5.SHTML, FOR  
MORE DETAILS.  
 
TROPICAL STORM WILFRED IS CENTERED NEAR 12.5N 34.4W AT 18/2100  
UTC OR 640 NM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 16 KT.  
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED  
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE W SEMICIRCLE. WILFRED WILL  
CONTINUE MOVING WNW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME SLIGHT  
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY, AND WEAKENING SHOULD START THIS  
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC  
PUBLIC ADVISORY AT:  
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATCPAT3.SHTML, AND THE FORECAST/  
ADVISORY AT HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATCMAT3.SHTML FOR  
MORE DETAILS.  
 
TROPICAL STORM BETA IS CENTERED NEAR 24.3N 93.1W AT 18/2100 UTC  
OR 290 NM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MOVING NNE AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED  
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND  
SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION  
IS WITHIN 200 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  
PREVAIL WITHIN 170 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. BETA WILL CONTINUE TO  
MOVE NNE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS  
FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THIS MOTION  
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM COULD BE  
NEAR OR AT HURRICANE STRENGTH BY SUNDAY. PLEASE READ THE LATEST  
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY AT  
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATCPAT2.SHTML, AND THE  
FORECAST/ADVISORY AT HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATCMAT2.SHTML  
FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM ALPHA IS CENTERED NEAR 40.4N 8.4W AT 18/2100  
UTC OR 100 NM NNE OF LISBON PORTUGAL MOVING NE AT 15 KT.  
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED  
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE NE QUADRANT MOVING ACROSS  
PORTUGAL AND PORTIONS OF NW SPAIN. SUBTROPICAL STORM ALPHA WILL  
CONTINUE MOVING NE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATION.  
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL, WITH RAPID  
WEAKENING OVER LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASE READ THE LATEST  
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY AT  
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATCPAT4.SHTML, AND THE  
FORECAST/ADVISORY AT HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATCMAT4.SHTML  
FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 19N17W TO  
15N23W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOTED AT THIS TIME  
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ HAVE BEEN  
DISRUPTED BY THE CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY.  
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON  
T.S. BETA LOCATED IN THE WESTERN GULF.  
 
THE CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN IS ENHANCED BY THE  
BETA. TO THE EAST, A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD  
ACROSS THE GULF, EXTENDING FROM 27N83W TO 27N89W, THEN BECOMING  
STATIONARY FROM THAT POINT TO 25N93W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS  
ANALYZED FROM 27N83W TO 25N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG  
THE TROUGH AND FRONT. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE  
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN.  
 
ASIDE FROM BETA, THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EAST GULF WILL CONTINUE  
MOVING SE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING FRESH NE WINDS TO THE AREA INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA....  
 
A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED IN THE EAST CARIBBEAN NEAR  
14N65W, WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 15N71W TO THE LOW TO 15N61W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS WITH THE LOW AND TROUGH.  
THE EPAC'S MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N-11N  
BETWEEN 76W-84W. A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE  
TROUGH NEAR 10N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE  
VICINITY OF THESE FEATURES MAINLY SOUTH OF 11N. SCATTEROMETER DATA  
DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN, EXCEPT  
FOR MODERATE TRADES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NORTH OF THE  
MONSOON TROUGH AND NEAR OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS.  
 
HURRICANE TEDDY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM TROPICAL ATLANTIC  
WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LONG-PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY  
SWELL GENERATED BY TEDDY ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF THE  
CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. T.S. WILFRED HAS  
DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM MAY IMPACT PORTIONS  
OF ATLANTIC WATERS WELL EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON  
HURRICANE TEDDY, T.S. WILFRED, AND SUBTROPICAL STORM ALPHA.  
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC FROM 31N77W TO  
29N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT  
MAINLY NORTH OF 30N. TO THE EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM  
31N33W TO 27N34W. A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N41W  
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS LOW IS THE REMNANTS OF VICKY. OUTSIDE  
OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE. FRESH TO  
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED OFF THE WESTERN SAHARA/MAURITANIA  
COAST.  
 
HURRICANE TEDDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NNW THROUGH THE FORECAST  
PERIOD. SWELL GENERATED BY TEDDY WILL IMPACT THE BAHAMAS THIS  
WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS  
THE WEST ATLANTIC TONIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME  
STATIONARY FROM NEAR BERMUDA INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE  
BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH BUILDING  
SEAS.  
 

 
ERA  
 
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