747
AXNT20 KNHC 161620
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI JAN 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW GULF
LATE TONIGHT, SUPPORTING FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N-NE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM
APALACHICOLA, FLORIDA TO TAMAULIPAS, MEXICO SAT NIGHT, THEN FROM
SW FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ, MEXICO SUN AFTERNOON AND EAST OF THE BASIN
BY SUN NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO GALE-FORCE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF SUN MORNING, INCLUDING OFFSHORE
TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP WITH
THESE WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MARKEDLY ON MON.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEA FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N17W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 04N17W TO 02N30W AND TO 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN
12W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 01N TO 06N
BETWEEN 26W AND 42W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT A GALE WARNING.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE, WITH
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS. ALTHOUGH SEAS ARE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BEHIND THE RECENT COLD FRONT, SEAS ARE STILL
4 TO 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA, HIGHEST IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND SOUTHEAST GULF. OFFSHORE TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE DEVELOPING, WITH 3
TO 4 FT SEAS. IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF, SEAS
HAVE SUBSIDED TO 2-4 FT. THE DRY, COLD CONTINENTAL AIRMASS MOVING
ACROSS THE BASIN IS SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
INFORMATION ON THE GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE GULF THIS
WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN
TUE INTO WED, RESULTING IN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO THE NORTH
COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. MODERATE TO FRESH NNE TO NE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY.
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS INDUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. MEANWHILE,
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHICH IS CAUSING MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL SHORTLY AND
DISSIPATE ON SAT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PULSE OFFSHORE OF
NW COLOMBIA TONIGHT, REACHING NEAR-GALE FORCE AT NIGHT STARTING
SAT NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
TIGHTEN LATER IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING
TO INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN AHEAD OF A
REINFORCING FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD, THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND
IT WILL SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS DURING MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 25N70W TO MAYAGUANA ISLAND,
BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE JUST
EAST OF THE FRONT, NORTH OF 27N, WHILE CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE
LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAILS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES
OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
FRONT NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 57W AND 71W, WITH LIGHTER WINDS CLOSER
TO NORTHERN FLORIDA, WHERE A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED.
NORTH OF 27N AND WEST OF THE FRONT, SEAS ARE 12-17 FT, WITH 8-12
FT SEAS STILL EXTENDING TO JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.
FARTHER EAST, A 1038 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES
GOVERNS THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS SEAS OF 7 TO 11 FT
ARE NOTED EAST OF 47W AND NORTH OF 20N, EXCEPT THESE CONDITIONS
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT RECENTLY DIPPED SOUTHWARD AND IS NOW
LOCATED FROM 31N13W TO 29N23W TO 31N35W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N
TO NE WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FT SEAS PREVAIL NORTH OF THE FRONT, WITH
SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS HEIGHTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT, DUE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED TRADE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, CLOSER TO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN, MAINLY MODERATE WIND SPEEDS WITH 6 TO 8 FT
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W
TO EASTERN CUBA WILL REACH FROM 31N59W TO 25N70W SAT MORNING
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE
BASIN LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST EAST OF 55W, WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NORTHWARD, BETWEEN
THE COAST OF MOROCCO AND 24W, WITH STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS
AND 11 TO 16 FT SEAS. MEANWHILE, TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG OVER THIS WEEKEND FROM 18N TO 26N AND BETWEEN 20W AND 57W,
WITH SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
HAGEN
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