269
AXNT20 KNHC 042157
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC MON JAN 5 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES TO 05N19W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
05N19W TO 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 03N
TO 07N BETWEEN 19W AND 35W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A STALLING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR FORT MYERS, FLORIDA, TO
JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO, MEXICO. MODERATE NE WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT
SEAS FOLLOW THE FRONT IN THE NE GULF, OTHERWISE THERE IS LITTLE
SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PASSAGE, WITH LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAILING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN WATERS THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF FRI NIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM E CUBA TO A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE
NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF COLOMBIA IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION BETWEEN PANAMA AND COLOMBIA, BETWEEN CUBA, JAMAICA, AND
HAITI, AND WITHIN 90 NM SOUTH OF HAITI. WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS,
FRESH N WINDS ARE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN BASIN FROM S
OF EASTERN CUBA TO OFFSHORE NICARAGUA. FRESH TRADES ARE ALSO
ONGOING IN THE SE CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY A COLD FRONT
N OF THE REGION IN THE ATLANTIC. SEAS ARE 2 TO 5 FT, HIGHEST WERE
WINDS ARE FRESH, AND LOWEST IN THE LEE OF CUBA, YUCATAN PASSAGE,
AND GULF OF HONDURAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA, WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH WINDS REACHING STRONG SPEEDS OFF COLOMBIA.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1001 MB LOW NW OF BERMUDA EXTENDS A COLD FRONT THAT REACHES
FROM 31N68W TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS CONFINED TO JUST E OF THE
BAHAMAS BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS
FOLLOW THE FRONT N OF 28N, ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG SW WINDS AND SIMILARLY ROUGH SEAS EXTEND E OF THE FRONT, N
OF 28N, TO WHERE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS MARKED FROM 31N65W TO
THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THIS TROUGH IS INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF ITS
AXIS. STILL FARTHER E, A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 60W N
OF 25N IS ALSO INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. FOR THE REMAINING WATERS N OF 23N AND
W OF 55W, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE. IN
THE TRADEWIND BELT S OF 15N, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND 5
TO 7 SEAS PREVAIL. IN THE NE BASIN, FRESH N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
PREVAIL N OF 25N AND E OF 30W, WITH ROUGH SEAS BUT LIGHTER WINDS
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
BASIN, GENERALLY MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS
THE WATERS AND OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BY
MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAILING.
KONARIK
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