766  
AXNT20 KNHC 071044  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1205 UTC TUE FEB 7 2023  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1000 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING:  
 
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW  
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-  
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH LATE WEEK.  
SEAS WILL PEAK TO 13 OR 14 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. A RECENT  
SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE  
WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE, READ THE LATEST HIGH  
SEAS FORECAST, AT HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML  
FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN SWELL EVENT:  
 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL COMBINED WITH NE WIND WAVE IS PRODUCING A  
LARGE AREA OF 12 TO 14 FT SEAS ROUGHLY ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 18N  
TO 24N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W. THE SWELL TRAIN, WITH A LEADING EDGE  
PERIOD OF 16 TO 18 SECONDS, IS REACHING THE WATERS E OF THE  
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE  
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN 35W AND 55W TODAY, WITH SEAS  
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 12 FT BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, LARGE  
NORTHERLY SWELL, GENERATED BY A LOW PRESSURE WITH HURRICANE-FORCE  
WINDS IN THE NW ATLANTIC, IS CURRENTLY REACHING THE FORECAST  
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 18 FT BY WED MORNING BEHIND A COLD  
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N50W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. SEAS WILL DROP  
BELOW 12 FT ON THU. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE  
MOST OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS THIS WORK-WEEK.  
PLEASE, READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST, AT  
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, FOR MORE  
INFORMATION.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA  
NEAR 10N14W TO 01N19W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N19W TO 01N30W TO  
01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 05N  
BETWEEN BETWEEN 15W AND 19W, AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN  
22W AND 50W.  
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH SE  
TO S WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF, AND  
GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT OVER THE  
EASTERN GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE YUCATAN  
PENINSULA. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE  
SE GULF. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE MOVING  
NORTHWARD UNDER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED  
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO WILL SUPPORT  
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE TO S WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF TODAY,  
WITH FRESH WINDS SPREADING TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH  
WED, WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF.  
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL BRIEFLY  
FOLLOW THE FRONT THAT WILL STALL OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON THU  
WHILE DISSIPATING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF  
THU EVENING, REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO VERACRUZ, MEXICO  
FRI EVENING, AND EXIT THE BASIN BY SAT MORNING. GALE CONDITIONS  
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO EARLY FRI AFTERNOON, AND NEAR  
VERACRUZ, MEXICO DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ROUGH TO VERY  
ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY  
OVER THE SW GULF.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA.  
PLEASE, READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
RECENT SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF MINIMAL  
GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, WITH FRESH TO STRONG  
WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE IN THE LEE OF EASTERN CUBA, AND  
ALSO ACROSS THE REST OF THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE  
8 TO 12 FT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS  
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT DOMINATE THE REMAINDER  
OF THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE  
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.  
 
POCKETS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE  
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING  
SHOWERS, MORE CONCENTRATED BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA, AND IN THE  
GULF OF HONDURAS.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE  
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA, WITH FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE  
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MINIMAL  
GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL PULSE AT NIGHT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA  
DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12  
OR 13 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE  
WINDWARD PASSAGE, LEE OF CUBA AND GULF OF HONDURAS LATER TODAY  
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK, PULSING TO STRONG AT NIGHT. STRONG EASTERLY  
WINDS WILL ALSO PULSE OFF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND OCCASIONALLY IN  
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD,  
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SAT MORNING,  
AND MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN MORNING. FRESH TO  
STRONG N WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE  
OF THE FRONT.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
A SWELL EVENT, WITH SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER, IS PROPAGATING ACROSS  
THE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS BETWEEN 35W AND 55W. PLEASE, READ  
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS  
MARINE CONDITIONS.  
 
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 31N62W, AND CONTINUES  
SW TO NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT N OF 24N. A FEW SHOWERS ARE  
NOTED BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.  
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FOLLOW THE FRONT. THE MOST RECENT  
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON EITHER SIDE  
OF THE FRONT N OF 29N, WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH  
NE WINDS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  
 
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS ARE UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF A 1043 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED N OF THE AZORES. THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE  
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO  
STRONG NE TO E WINDS S OF 26N AND E OF 55W. SEAS OF 9 TO 14 FT IN  
NW SWELL ARE WITHIN THESE WINDS. SEVERAL ALTIMETER PASSES CONFIRMED  
THESE SEA HEIGHTS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE  
SEAS PREVAIL.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL  
REACH FROM 31N54W TO 23N65W BY THIS EVENING, AND FROM 31N48W TO  
22N65W BY WED EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG WIND WILL PERSIST N OF 28N  
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE SWELL WILL  
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE  
WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BAHAMAS,  
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TODAY THROUGH LATE  
WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA  
FRI NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ON  
BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.  
 

 
GR  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page