741  
AXNT20 KNHC 251703  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1203 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2020  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1640 UTC.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST OF NIGERIA AND  
GHANA, ALONG THE COAST OF IVORY COAST, INLAND OVER LIBERIA AND  
EMERGES OFFSHORE OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W, THEN CONTINUES TO  
05N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N17W TO 01N24W TO 00N37W TO THE  
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN  
FROM 04S-03N BETWEEN 17W-27W, AND FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 26W-45W.  
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
AS OF 25/1500 UTC, A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS  
TO THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21.5N88W. ISOLATED  
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT EAST OF 86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A 1023 MB HIGH OVER  
SW MISSISSIPPI EXTENDS SURFACE RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE GULF  
BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AIR IS BEHIND THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE  
EASTERN GULF. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SEEN IN THE WEST-CENTRAL  
GULF OFFSHORE LOWER TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE MOST  
RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF.  
 
THE WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE N COAST OF THE  
YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ON  
SUN AS A WARM FRONT, AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE  
TEXAS COAST. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS ARE  
POSSIBLE SUNDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO  
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW. THE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE  
CENTRAL GULF MON AND WEAKEN. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER WEAK LOW  
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF TUE, SHIFTING E-SE  
THROUGH WED NIGHT.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS  
FROM 19N60W TO 17N65W, DISSIPATING TO 17N70W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL  
TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 25/1200 UTC WERE 1.72 INCHES  
AT SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE  
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC. THE SCATTERED  
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF  
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  
ELSEWHERE, A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 66W FROM 10N-16N IS PRODUCING  
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF ITS AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG  
75/76W FROM 09N-15N IS PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS  
ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF ITS AXIS FROM 09N-13N. A WEAK COLD  
FRONT OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS APPROACHING THE YUCATAN  
CHANNEL WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE LATEST ASCAT PASS SHOWS  
MODERATE N WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN, WITH GENTLE WIND SPEEDS  
ELSEWHERE.  
 
THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN  
ISLANDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS  
WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE  
GRADIENT DOMINATES THE AREA.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
AS OF 25/1500 UTC, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N76W TO MIAMI  
FLORIDA TO THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21.5N88W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE ALONG AND WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF  
THE FRONT, NORTH OF 27.5N AND EAST OF 78.5W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND IN  
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE LATEST ASCAT PASS SHOWS FRESH NW WINDS  
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE SE COAST OF THE U.S., NORTH OF 26.5N.  
 
AN OCCLUDED 1007 MB LOW IS NEAR 31N59W MOVING E-NE. A COLD FRONT  
EXTENDS FROM A TRIPLE POINT NORTH OF THE AREA TO 32N52W TO 26N53W  
TO 20N59W, THEN CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 17N65W. THE  
PORTION OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF 25N IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF LOW-  
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG  
AND WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG  
53W FROM 11N-18N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.  
 
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SEEN AROUND 20N-31N BETWEEN  
40W-45W. AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE JUST WEST OF THE AXIS  
IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN  
42W-49W. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY  
ISLANDS TO NEAR 20N30W. THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND ISOLATED TSTORMS INSIDE THE AREA ENCLOSED BY THE POINTS 22N19W  
TO 14N31W TO 14N22W TO 18N15W TO 22N15W TO 22N19W.  
 
SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT, MOSTLY DUE TO NORTHEAST SWELL, WILL  
SUBSIDE TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, EAST OF THE  
BAHAMAS. THE WEAK COLD FRONT FROM 32N76W TO MIAMI WILL REACH FROM  
BERMUDA TO WESTERN CUBA ON SUN, THEN DISSIPATE MON NIGHT. LOOKING  
AHEAD, A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
HAGEN  
 
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