490
AXNT20 KNHC 061653
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU AUG 6 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1650 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN
THROUGH MON NIGHT. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE N OF THE REGION
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD, ACTING TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
ACCELERATING THE WINDS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA TO NEAR GALE-FORCE SPEED AND TO GALE-FORCE SPEED AT
NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL THERE, BUILDING TO VERY ROUGH AT
TIMES THIS WEEKEND WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC UNIFIED SURFACE ANALYSIS
ALONG 19W SOUTH 20N. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND 21W, AND FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 19W AND 22W.
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 20N, AND MOVING WEST AT
15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 11N
BETWEEN 34W AND 40W.
A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 20N, MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS
TIME.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS ALONG
89W. PLEASE, SEE THE TWDEP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF SENEGAL
NEAR DAKAR AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 10N36W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 09N40W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 09.5N61W. ASIDE
FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES, LIMITED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOTED ELSEWHERE.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB LOCATED NEAR BERMUDA EXTENDS A RIDGE
WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF REGION WHILE A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. UNDER THIS
WEATHER PATTERN, A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAIL,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE NOTED, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
FLORIDA, THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE
ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF THROUGH LATE MON, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS N OF 22N ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEAS. PULSES OF
FRESH WINDS WILL OCCUR NORTH AND WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH MIGRATES
FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SW GULF. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE FORECAST FOR THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN THROUGH MON NIGHT. IN
ADDITION, A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE REACHING FLORIDA ON
FRIDAY, LEADING TO INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1027 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR BERMUDA
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA,
ALONG WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES
ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN, THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND IN
THE LEE SIDE OF CUBA. SEAS ARE GENERALLY MODERATE. IN TERMS OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY, A SURFACE TROUGH STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING BETWEEN
HAITI AND JAMAICA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AS WELL AS IN THE VICINITY OF JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE EAST EXTENSION OF THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE NW COLOMBIA
AND EASTERN PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH
AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF THE SW BASIN THROUGH MON NIGHT. OVER THE WEEKEND,
THE RIDGE N OF THE REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD, ACTING TO INCREASE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ACCELERATING THE WINDS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA
AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA TO NEAR GALE-FORCE SPEED AND TO
GALE-FORCE SPEED AT NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL THERE, BUILDING
TO VERY ROUGH AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED. FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND WINDWARD
PASSAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, EXCEPT OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN
WINDS MAY PULSE TO STRONG SPEED. OTHERWISE, MAINLY MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLIES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE
MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ABOUT 60 TROPICAL WAVES DEVELOP OVER NORTH AFRICA EACH YEAR.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND RUNS
FROM 28N69W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH COVERING THE WATERS
FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 25N AND 28N
WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT BASED ON SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER DATA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE, WITH THE MAIN CENTER OF 1027 MB
SITUATED NEAR BERMUDA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NW AFRICA SUPPORTS FRESH
TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS OFFSHORE MOROCCO AND WESTERN SAHARA,
INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH SEAS IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE SEEN PER SCATTEROMETER DATA AHEAD
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 51W. ELSEWHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NE OF FREEPORT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OFFSHORE E FLORIDA AND IN THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A WESTWARD MOVING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS OFFSHORES, WILL RESUME THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE FLORIDA SEABOARD AND OFFSHORES FRI MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING
WEST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. ASIDE FROM THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY, THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS OFFSHORES THROUGH TONIGHT.
FRESH E WINDS WILL PREVAIL N OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE APPROACHES
OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD, REACHING STRONG SPEEDS
SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS THE BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
GR
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