323
AXNT20 KNHC 090927
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC FRI JAN 9 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
TEXAS EARLY SAT MORNING, THEN RACE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF.
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE GOING TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. THESE WINDS WILL PEAK
AT GALE TO STRONG-GALE FORCE OFFSHORE TAMPICO BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD TO OFFSHORE VERACRUZ BY SATURDAY EVENING.
WINDS OFFSHORE TAMPICO SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE FORCE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE VERACRUZ AND THE WESTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE INTO MONDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 14
AND 21 FT UNDER THE STRONGEST WINDS, HIGHEST OFFSHORE VERACRUZ.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA/GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH STAYS MOSTLY OVER THE AFRICA CONTINENT, EMERGING
OFFSHORE LIBERIA AT 05N09W TO 04N11.5W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES
WESTWARD FROM 04N11.5W TO 00.5N35W TO NEAR THE BORDER OF FRENCH
GUIANA AND BRAZIL AT 04N41W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 04.5N BETWEEN 12W AND 30W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 04N TO 06.5N BETWEEN 48W AND 54W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE ON A UPCOMING GALE
WARNING.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO. FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG SE TO S WINDS AND
SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
GULF AS SEEN ON RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA AS WELL AS
REPORTED BY IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS
WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS ARE NOTED AT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN GULF.
MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH SE TO S WINDS AND SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE TO S WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE
TO FRESH SPEEDS TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE
FORCE N WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY REACH GALE SPEED
NEAR TAMPICO LATE SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON, AND IN VERACRUZ
ADJACENT WATERS SAT EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. WINDS MAY PEAK
AROUND 45 KT NEAR VERACRUZ. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD AND LIKELY
PEAK AT AROUND 20 FT OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL FROM NEAR WESTERN CUBA TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MON EVENING, AND
CONDITIONS IN THE SW GULF WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN BY LATE TUE
NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A 1021 MB HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS SUSTAINING A TRADE-WIND
REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
NE TRADES AND SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT ARE EVIDENT AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING OFFSHORE SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA, WITH SEAS OF 6
TO 8 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH ENE TO E WINDS WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE
SEEN OVER PART OF THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN, AS WELL AS IN THE LEE
OF CUBA, NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO ESE WINDS AND SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS WILL
PULSE OFFSHORE OF NW COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN NIGHT DUE TO THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA, THEN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
THERE AFTERWARDS. ROUGH SEAS TO 11 FT WILL OCCUR WITHIN THESE
WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE IN
THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
HISPANIOLA ADJACENT WATERS. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE LIKELY
PULSING AT NIGHT OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND S OF HISPANIOLA
THROUGH SAT NIGHT, WITH SIMILAR WINDS PULSING IN THE LEE OF CUBA
TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WILL
PREVAIL, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS NEAR THE GULF OF
HONDURAS INTO SAT. A DECAYING COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO OR NEAR THE
FAR NW CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WASH
OUT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS 31N39W TO 26N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 26N55W TO NEAR 23N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 25N TO 28.5N BETWEEN 49W AND 56W. REFER
TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN.
A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N71W AND ITS RELATED RIDGE ARE SUPPORTING
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH 2 TO 5 FT SEAS NORTH OF 24N AND WEST
OF 50W, EXCEPT GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS, AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. FARTHER EAST, FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE FROM 13N TO 27N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W WITH 8 TO
12 FT SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NORTH OF 27N AND EAST OF
40W ALONG WITH 6 TO 9 FT SEAS. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 04N
TO 20N AND WEST OF 40W, MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH ENE WINDS AND
5 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE VISIBLE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC
BASIN WEST OF 35W, GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WITH 5 TO 8
FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PRIVATELY.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH TAIL JUST INTO THE NE WATERS WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS E OF THE
BAHAMAS, THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK AND THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE THROUGH SUN, LOCALLY STRONG NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A
NEW COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST SUN. FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY MON
MORNING, DISSIPATING MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
LEWITSKY
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