485
AXNT20 KNHC 172209
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED MAR 18 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
EAST ATLANTIC LONG-PERIOD N SWELL: LARGE, LONG-PERIOD N SWELL
GENERATED BY A LARGE FETCH OF GALE TO STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD OF 31N
THROUGH WED. EXPECT SEAS OF 12 AND 18 FT FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN
30W AND 45W TONIGHT. THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL SHIFT FARTHER
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 23N WED MORNING, AND THEN BECOME REINFORCED WITH
ADDITIONAL LARGE N SWELL WED THROUGH THU. SEAS ACROSS THESE
NORTHEASTERN WATERS WILL REMAIN 12 FT AND GREATER THROUGH AT LEAST
FRI NIGHT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THEN MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N20W. AN ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 02N24W TO 02S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 10W AND 17W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED SOUTH OF
04N BETWEEN 17W AND 43W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON, TAKING
CONVECTION WITH IT. IN ITS WAKE, 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN TEXAS IS BUILDING INTO THE GULF. FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS DOMINATE THE SE HALF OF THE BASIN, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO
GENTLE TO MODERATE TO THE NW. SEAS ARE ROUGH WHERE THE WINDS ARE
FRESH TO STRONG, WITH SOME VERY ROUGH SEAS TO 13 FT IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE SEAS
EXIST.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH, AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, EXCEPT FOR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL, WHERE FRESH TO STRONG N
TO NE WINDS WILL LINGER UNTIL WED MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON WED, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND
PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE YUCATAN CHANNEL, WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AND WITHIN 90 NM SOUTH OF IT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED ALONG AND EAST OF A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATION THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EASTWARD TO
WATERS NEAR JAMAICA. N OF THE COLD FRONT, STRONG TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE NE WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING ROUGH SEAS EXIST. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NW AND SW BASIN, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS
ARE MODERATE. ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT PREVAIL, WITH FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
FARTHER EAST.
FOR THE FORECAST, A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC TO NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NE
CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES, AND THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC EXPOSURES AND PASSAGES
THROUGH WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY STALL
FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY EARLY WED MORNING
WHILE DISSIPATING. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE INFLUENCE FROM THE
RIDGE AND ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO FLORIDA
STRAITS. A BAND OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
EXISTS AHEAD OF IT, ALONG A PRE-FRONTRAL TROUGH DRAPPED FROM
31N71W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. BEHIND THE FRONT, MODERATE TO FRESH N
WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL. E OF THE FRONT,
AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE TROUGH DOMINATES THE BASIN, ANCHORED BY A
1041 MB HIGH PRESSURE AT 41N47W. THESE IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS, WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS IS NOTED
FROM 31N21W TO 26N48W. STRONG N WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE N OF
THIS BOUNDARY.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, BY WED AFTERNOON, THE FRONT WILL
STALL FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. AT THE SAME TIME,
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT,
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD.
KONARIK
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