586
AXNT20 KNHC 241644
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED DEC 24 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL/GALE WARNING: VERY LARGE NW
SWELL IS COMBINING WITH WAVES GENERATED BY STRONG NNE WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO
INDUCE VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF WATERS N OF 22N
BETWEEN 45W AND 65W. THESE SEAS OF UP TO 15 FT WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH TODAY, GRADUALLY DECAYING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY WEAKENS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S OF BERMUDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
AND ADDITIONAL SWELL GENERATED BY THE NEW FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION STARTING ON THU AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRI. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU
MORNING, MAINLY N OF 30N.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO
07N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N19W TO 00N47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ AND W OF 45W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB CENTERED NEAR 30N89W EXTENDS ITS RIDGE
ACROSS THE BASIN, THUS SUPPORTING FRESH WINDS IN THE SE GULF, WITH
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEAST GULF THROUGH THU. A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THU
THROUGH SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE MAINLY A GENTLE TO MODERATE
WIND FLOW WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST GULF ON MON.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA AND THE
COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NE WINDS
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA WITH ROUGH SEAS, AND FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
IN THE LEE SIDE OF CUBA WITH ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE
SEAS. IN THE E CARIBBEAN, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS
SLIGHT TO MODERATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA, THE WINDWARD PASSAGE,
AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU NIGHT, EXCEPT THROUGH SUN
NIGHT OFF COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE, LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL
REACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND THE WATERS JUST EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS, INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES, THIS MORNING AND
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE THU INTO FRI. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH THE SAME REGION LATE FRI INTO SAT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON SIGNIFICANT
SWELL/GALE WARNING.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N38W TO 25N47W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO 20N69W. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGING IS TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE FRONT, SUPPORTING
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY. A STRONGER FRONT MOVING BETWEEN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF
27N THROUGH EARLY THU. LARGE SWELL CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. STRONG WINDS AND A NEW GROUP OF LARGE
REINFORCING SWELL WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT, MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF 70W THROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH THU. WINDS TO GALE FORCE WILL
BRIEFLY IMPACT THE AREA NORTH OF 30N SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS BETWEEN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA FRI, BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
SAT, BRING ADDITIONAL REINFORCING SWELL EAST OF 70W. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST SAT, AND MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION BY LATE SUN.
ERA
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