562
AXNT20 KNHC 050802
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED NOV 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 89W OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA INCLUDING BELIZE TO THE WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS SOUTH
OF 21N, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS, THE E YUCATAN
PENINSULA, BELIZE AND NE NICARAGUA OFFSHORE WATERS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08.5N13W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO NEAR
08.5N18.5W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08.5N18.5W TO 08.5N35W TO
FRENCH GUIANA AT 05.5W54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE TAIL OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS JUST TO THE
N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO JUST THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA
ADJACENT WATERS AND IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE CORAL,
FLORIDA. A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE HAS BUILT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT, WHICH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT TIGHT GRADIENT
LEADING TO MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS IN THE SE BASIN AS
INDICATED BY EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE MODERATE WITH
THESE WINDS WHILE SLIGHT SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT TO 6 FT IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS IN THE
SE GULF DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE EASTERN U.S. WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT DISSIPATES. THEREAFTER AND ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE NEXT POSSIBLY STRONG COLD FRONT MAY ENTER
THE BASIN SUN WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND
IT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL N OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO BUILD A
RIDGE ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT STARTS TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO CENTRAL
CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF AMERICA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE EAST PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN, EXCEPT GENTLE TO MODERATE W OF 85W.
GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN, AND 2-4 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE SW OVER HAITI IS
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NEARBY. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS NOTED IN THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN DUE TO A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO
EARLY THU AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN.
ELSEWHERE, FRESH NE WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. LOOKING AHEAD, MAINLY MODERATE TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BASIN THU INTO THIS
WEEKEND, EXCEPT FRESHENING IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS IN NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BUILD IN
THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N55W TO 26N63W THEN CONTINUES AS
STATIONARY TO ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO CENTRAL CUBA.
MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 11 FT ARE
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH SEAS 8 FT OR HIGHER AFFECTING THE
OFFSHORES N OF 27N AND E OF 73W. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, FRESH
TO STRONG SW WINDS ARE OBSERVED N OF 29N AND EASTWARD TO 45W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND
THE APPROACHES TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N35W, WHICH IS
PROVIDING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS TO THIS REGION, EXCEPT LOCALLY
FRESH FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 35W AND A TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
16.5N51W TO 07N50W. SEAS ARE 6-8 FT NEAR THESE LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS. OTHERWISE, LARGE NW SWELL IS SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS TO 10
FT N OF 28N AND E OF THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY TO JUST W OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD PORTION WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE THE STATIONARY PORTIONS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHERLY
SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 25N AND EAST OF
75W TODAY. VERY ROUGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTH OF 28N AND EAST OF 62W LATER TODAY
THROUGH THU MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD, ROUGH SEAS WILL BE REINFORCED
OVER THE WATERS EAST OF 65W BY FRI AS A STRONG STRONG STORM SYSTEM
PASSES NORTH OF THE WATERS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
NW WATERS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LEWITSKY
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