189
AXNT20 KNHC 110431
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC THU JUN 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0431 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A NEW TROPICAL WAVES HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA.
THIS WAVE IS NEAR 17W, S OF 11.5N. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 02.5N TO 10N AND EAST OF 20W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 46W, S OF 15N, MOVING WEST AT
10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO
07N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 58W, S OF 15N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 64W, S OF 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO CONVECTION IS DEPICTED AT THIS TIME IN
ASSOCIATION TO THIS WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 14N17W
AND EXTENDS SW TO 05N29W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N29W TO 04N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 10N
BETWEEN 20W AND 34.5W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AS WELL AS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, AND THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF, EXCEPT NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, WHERE
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS 2 TO 5 FT
PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR SEAS 5 TO 6 FT NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH OR WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CENTER MAY EMERGE FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ON THU NIGHT AND THEN TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ENHANCE THE GRADIENT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE,
CAUSING FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
WEST-CENTRAL GULF. IT WILL ALSO TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SAME AREA INTO SUN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED WEST OF 80W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA, THE EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH, AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE AROUND TD
CRISTINA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT
RANGE. OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 3-5 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND T.D. CRISTINA IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR WILL SUSTAIN FRESH TO
STRONG E TO SE WINDS WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS FROM THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 31N52W ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS TO NEAR 30N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FOUND S OF THE
FRONT FROM 29N58W TO 21N70W, WITH A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 26N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR
THE LOW ALONG THE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 40N26W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT,
PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS N OF 20N AND W OF 55W. SOUTH OF 20N, AND
BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
WINDS PREVAIL ALONG WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS,
AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE NOTED N OF 20N AND E OF 25W. ELSEWHERE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE TROUGH THROUGH THU. MEANWHILE, A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ALONG 28N WILL DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THU THROUGH FRI ALONG ROUGHLY 25N. LOOKING AHEAD, THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA AT NIGHT FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KRV
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