166
AXNT20 KNHC 162351
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT MAY 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 43W FROM 11N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS SEEN NEAR THE CENTRAL PART OF THE WAVE.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 67W FROM NEAR PUERTO
RICO SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL VENEZUELA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND
AT NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF
SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N20W TO
01N39W. NO ITCZ IS ANALYZED AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM
02N TO 08N EAST OF 25W.
CONVERGENT WINDS NORTH OF THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A MODEST SURFACE RIDGE REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO NORTH OF VERACRUZ, MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS
SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS
AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE PRESENT OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 2 TO 4
FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
WIND PULSES OFF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
EVENINGS INTO NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. REFER
TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE NEAR 24N AND A 1007 MB LOW OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA IS SUSTAINING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND 6 TO 9 FT
SEAS IN THE CENTRAL, AND PART OF THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN. FRESH TO
STRONG E WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT ARE NOTED AT THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH 2 TO 5 FT SEAS EXIST IN THE
LEE OF CUBA AND NORTH COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. MODERATE TO FRESH E
TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO TUE,
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS. LARGE E SWELL INDUCED ROUGH SEAS WILL LINGER
ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO MON NIGHT,
THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM EAST OF BERMUDA ACROSS
31N61W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING UP TO 85 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. REFER TO
THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION AT THE BEGINNING FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE EVIDENT NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH, NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 70W. FARTHER EAST, A BROAD
ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1030 MB AZORES HIGH
ACROSS 31N42W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS MAINTAINING GENTLE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 35W AND 70W. TO THE
SOUTH, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES WITH 6 TO 9 FT SEAS
DOMINATE FROM 04N TO 26N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES/70W.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E TRADES AND SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FT PREVAIL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TRADE WINDS AND OCCASIONALLY ROUGH SEAS WITH E
SWELL INTO SUN NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 31N62W TO THE BAHAMAS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING,
LEAVING TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS IN PLACE ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CHAN
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