816
AXNT20 KNHC 082303
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE JUN 9 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2240 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 24W-25W, FROM 16N SOUTHWARD,
MOVING WEST AT AROUND 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 36W, FROM 16N SOUTHWARD,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 49W, FROM 17N SOUTHWARD,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS
DISCUSSED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W, SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO IT'S W, ENHANCING CONVECTION. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 11N TO 19N BETWEEN
70W AND 83W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 14.5N17W
AND EXTENDS TO 11N21W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N21W TO 09N24W,
THEN FROM 07.5N26W TO 07N35W, THEN FROM 06.5N38W TO 06N46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04.5N TO 10.5N
BETWEEN 17W AND 35W, AND FROM 01.5N TO 08N BETWEEN 36W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, ANCHORED BY A 1021
MB HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, AND LOW PRESSURE AROUND TS
BORIS, AND TS CRISTINA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE E WINDS OVER THE SE
GULF. GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE GULF, WHILE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6
FT RANGE WEST OF 90W, AND 2-3 FT E OF 90W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF
REGION THROUGH FRI, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, WHERE A
DIURNAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS PULSING TO
FRESH TO SPEEDS DURING THE EVENINGS THROUGH AT LEAST WED. LOOKING
AHEAD, A TROUGH OR WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY EMERGE FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, PERHAPS FROM LATE THU
THROUGH FRI NIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BASIN W OF 72W,
WHICH IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, AND PRODUCING A LOCALLY
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 14N. FRESH
WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS DUE TO THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE W ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AROUND TS CRISTINA. MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
SEAS ARE IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE E OF 78W, AND 4-6 FT W OF 78W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE AND TS CRISTINA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC, CURRENTLY
OFFSHORE NICARAGUA, SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH MODERATE
TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS STARTING IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NW
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION,
A TROUGH OR WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY EMERGE FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE PERHAPS LATER THU THROUGH FRI
NIGHT, MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND
MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N72W THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS TO
EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS TO 62W, FROM 22.5N TO 27.5N . HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED BY A
1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N33W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL
OVER THE WATERS E OF 50W, AS WELL AS S OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS COVER THE WATERS N OF 23N
AND W OF 65W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SEAS
ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE E OF 42W, 3-4 FT N OF 24N AND W OF 50W,
AND 5-6 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE TROUGH THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N WATERS TUE, THEN MOVE VERY
SLOWLY OR STALL ON WED, GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY THU. HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE WEAKENING, WITH THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARD FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA. THE RELATED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. INCREASING
MOISTURE RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS IS LIKELY TO
IMPACT THE FAR WESTERN SECTION OF THE BASIN DURING THE WEEK.
STRIPLING
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