251
AXNT20 KNHC 290955
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SAT NOV 29 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
LARGE ATLANTIC SWELL: A TROUGH REACHING FROM ROUGHLY 10N TO 25N
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 45W,
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE TO THE W-NW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUN AND MON. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS TO DEVELOP, GENERALLY COVERING THE WATERS FROM 15N
TO 30N EAST OF 60W BY LATE SUN. COMBINED SEAS WILL REACH 12 FT
FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W BY EARLY MON. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH LATE MON THROUGH TUE AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
WESTWARD TO 65W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W AND
EXTENDS TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM NEAR 06N20W TO
05N25W TO 09N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM
04N TO 07N 10W TO 25W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS DOMINATES THE GULF, SUPPORTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
THIS PATTERN IS ALSO SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OFF THE
COAST OF TEXAS, AND FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA, AS CONFIRMED BY A
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING. THE
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE ALSO SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA ALSO
INDICATED SEAS TO 8 FT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL, IN N SWELL. FRESH
TO STRONG SW WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE ALSO NOTED OFF THE
COAST OF TEXAS, FOLLOWING A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS
COAST SUN, THEN STALL ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH LATE MON. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT
OFF TEXAS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST LATE MON A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA IS FOLLOWED BY FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH SUN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL PRODUCE INCREASING NE WINDS ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE NE FLORIDA
MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO COME OFF THE
NE FLORIDA COAST TUE NIGHT. THROUGH EARLY TUE, ALLOWING
REINFORCING COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE TUE. LOOKING
AHEAD, THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF WED, BUT LIFT
NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE ACTIVE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL BELIZE. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES INDICATED FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. FARTHER SOUTH, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO ACTIVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN DUE TO DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AND CONVERGENT SURFACE WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS AND
SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
WILL SUSTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES OVER THE SW AND
SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT, WITH MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME. THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE SAT. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS BEHIND IT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL DIMINISH AS
THE FRONT DECAYS. A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
MON AND TUE WILL LEAD TO TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
AND CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG THE
FRONT. A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS
FORCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N-NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SEAS OCCURRING IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS, A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES DOMINATES, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH SUN, AND HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST MON, THEN WILL STALL AND
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY TUE. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS NORTH OF 29N AND WEST OF 75W TUE AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN GULF TO THE CAROLINAS. LOOKING AHEAD,
THESE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD NORTH OF 28N
THROUGH MID WEEK, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM
BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY LATE WED. MEANWHILE, STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY A TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE WATERS
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SUN THROUGH TUE.
CHRISTENSEN
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