856
AXNT20 KNHC 060533
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI MAR 6 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING:
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON.
WINDS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA WILL PULSE TO GALE-FORCE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 04N17W TO 00N30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 03N BETWEEN 20W AND
30W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF, THE
WESTERN FL PENINSULA, AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALL
THREE TROUGHS ARE SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR EACH TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY
MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF, WITH LOCALLY FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES OCCURRING NEAR THE FL STRAITS AND OFFSHORE THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT THROUGH THE FL
STRAITS, AND 2-5 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND A BROAD RIDGE
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO
WILL SUPPORT MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS BASIN-WIDE,
PUSLING TO FRESH TO STRONG NEAR THE NORTHERN YUCATAN IN THE
EVENINGS. SEAS WILL BE SLIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE REGARDING A GALE WARNING
IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDE OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 8 TO
10 FT RANGE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL N OF THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE TRADES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA WILL PULSE TO GALE-FORCE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL
PULSE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA THROUGH SAT
EVENING. IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE
AT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT, THEN MODERATE TO FRESH THEREAFTER.
ROUGH SEAS IN FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC FORECAST REGION, WITH A 1037 MB
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NE OF THE AZORES, AND A 1027 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA. UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS RIDGE, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
OBSERVED PER SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER DATA ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WATERS E OF 50W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA S OF
25N AND W OF 50W, WITH SEAS TO 8 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL S OF 25N THROUGH TUE NIGHT, REACHING STRONG SPEEDS N
OF HISPANIOLA INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT TIMES. ROUGH SEAS WILL
PREVAIL WITHIN THESE WINDS AND E OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS THROUGH TUE. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
ADAMS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page