115  
AXUS72 KTAE 140906  
DGTTAE  
ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067-  
073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-  
087-095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-  
287-321-210915-  
 
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
406 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2023 /306 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2023/  
 
...SEVERE DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FAR  
SOUTHERN GEORGIA...  
...DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST  
ALABAMA...  
 
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FROM RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGES HAS FINALLY HELPED  
ALLEVIATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST  
ALABAMA. HOWEVER, RAINFALL HAS BEEN LESS PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE  
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA, WHICH  
REMAINS THE DRIEST PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.  
 
TODAY, SATURDAY, JANUARY 14TH, THE LATEST ISSUANCE OF THE NATIONAL  
DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWED SEVERE DROUGHT /CATEGORY D2/ ACROSS THE  
ENTIRE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND INTO THE NEIGHBORING GEORGIA COUNTIES.  
MODERATE DROUGHT /CATEGORY D1/ CONDITIONS CONTINUE FROM ROUGHLY  
SEAGROVE BEACH, FL TO LEESBURG, GA, EASTWARD OUTSIDE OF THE SEVERE  
DROUGHT AREA. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS /CATEGORY D0/ EXIST FOR  
NEARLY THE REST OF THE AREA. NO DROUGHT CATEGORIES ARE OBSERVED IN  
NORTHWESTERN WALTON, WESTERN GENEVA, AND SOUTHWESTERN COFFEE  
COUNTIES.  
 
TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW YEAR HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL,  
THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE NEAR-FREEZING NIGHTS. A MORE  
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE LATELY, BRINGING MORE FREQUENT  
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND SHOTS AT RAIN. HOWEVER, STORM SYSTEMS HAVE  
GENERALLY BEEN LIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BEFORE PROVIDING  
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO OUR EASTERN AREAS. THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT  
2 WEEKS FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING WITH A SLIGHT  
TILT TOWARD FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP  
DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS.  
 
STATE/LOCAL ACTION...  
 
THE STATE OF ALABAMA HAS ISSUED A DROUGHT ADVISORY FOR COFFEE, DALE,  
GENEVA, AND HOUSTON COUNTIES IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. WHEN IN A  
DROUGHT ADVISORY, THE STATE OF ALABAMA ADVISES EFFICIENT USE OF WATER  
RESOURCES. PUBLIC WATER CUSTOMERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO FOLLOW LOCAL  
WATER SYSTEM RECOMMENDATIONS REGARDING WATER USE.  
 
IN FLORIDA, THERE IS A COUNTYWIDE BURN BAN FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY.  
 
CLIMATE SUMMARY / IMPACTS  
 
SINCE THE LAST ISSUANCE OF THE DROUGHT STATEMENT, BENEFICIAL RAIN  
HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS  
FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE FLINT AND APALACHICOLA  
RIVERS WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES WEST OF THESE RIVERS. HOWEVER, THE LOWEST  
AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND WHERE  
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE ONLY AVERAGED AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. RAINFALL  
FOR THE LAST 2 WEEKS HAS BEEN ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL IN  
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND WALTON AND HOLMES COUNTIES, FL. MEANWHILE,  
IT'S BEEN ABOUT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF  
THE AREA, OUTSIDE OF THE THOMASVILLE, GA AND APALACHICOLA, FL  
VICINITIES.  
 
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECASTS, ANOTHER FRONT WILL LIKELY PASS  
THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK, BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO  
THE AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE 0.5 INCHES OR LESS. ANOTHER  
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 7 TO 10 DAY  
PERIOD AS WELL, WHICH MAY BRING MORE RAINFALL.  
 
THE FOLLOWING RAINFALL STATISTICS ARE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT SELECTED  
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE TABLES INDICATE RAINFALL  
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL SINCE JUNE 1ST, 2022, SEPTEMBER 1ST, 2022,  
AND DECEMBER 1ST, 2022 AS NOTED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CURRENT  
THROUGH THURSDAY, JANUARY 12TH.  
 
LOCATION RAINFALL NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT OF  
SINCE 6/1 VALUE FROM NORMAL NORMAL  
 
TALLAHASSEE 38.91 IN 39.64 IN -0.73 IN 98.2%  
APALACHICOLA 39.03 IN 37.24 IN +1.79 IN 104.8%  
PANAMA CITY 32.23 IN 38.90 IN -6.67 IN 82.9%  
DOTHAN 28.87 IN 33.92 IN -5.05 IN 85.1%  
ALBANY 26.82 IN 29.58 IN -2.76 IN 90.7%  
VALDOSTA 28.06 IN 32.48 IN -4.42 IN 86.4%  
CROSS CITY 24.89 IN 37.16 IN -12.27 IN 67.0%  
MARIANNA 23.49 IN 32.32 IN -8.83 IN 72.7%  
CARRABELLE 34.24 IN 40.72 IN -6.48 IN 84.1%  
GENEVA 32.73 IN 39.19 IN -6.46 IN 83.5%  
DEFUNIAK SPGS 34.02 IN 43.16 IN -9.14 IN 78.8%  
MAYO 21.06 IN 39.03 IN -17.97 IN 54.0%  
 
LOCATION RAINFALL NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT OF  
SINCE 9/1 VALUE FROM NORMAL NORMAL  
 
TALLAHASSEE 7.94 IN 17.14 IN -9.20 IN 46.3%  
APALACHICOLA 17.77 IN 17.85 IN -0.08 IN 99.6%  
PANAMA CITY 15.00 IN 19.29 IN -4.29 IN 77.7%  
DOTHAN 11.86 IN 16.72 IN -4.86 IN 70.9%  
ALBANY 9.96 IN 14.57 IN -4.61 IN 68.4%  
VALDOSTA 8.05 IN 14.96 IN -6.91 IN 53.8%  
CROSS CITY 6.05 IN 14.29 IN -8.24 IN 42.3%  
MARIANNA 7.77 IN 17.29 IN -9.52 IN 44.9%  
CARRABELLE 13.88 IN 18.69 IN -4.81 IN 74.3%  
GENEVA 13.38 IN 21.16 IN -7.78 IN 63.2%  
DEFUNIAK SPGS 12.09 IN 21.61 IN -9.52 IN 55.9%  
MAYO 7.40 IN 15.78 IN -8.38 IN 46.9%  
 
LOCATION RAINFALL NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT OF  
SINCE 12/1 VALUE FROM NORMAL NORMAL  
 
TALLAHASSEE 3.00 IN 5.89 IN -2.89 IN 50.9%  
APALACHICOLA 5.47 IN 5.10 IN +0.37 IN 107.3%  
PANAMA CITY 4.88 IN 6.48 IN -1.60 IN 75.3%  
DOTHAN 6.01 IN 6.84 IN -0.83 IN 87.9%  
ALBANY 3.32 IN 5.96 IN -2.64 IN 55.7%  
VALDOSTA 2.49 IN 4.56 IN -2.07 IN 54.6%  
CROSS CITY 1.40 IN 4.14 IN -2.74 IN 33.8%  
MARIANNA 2.26 IN 6.44 IN -4.18 IN 35.1%  
CARRABELLE 3.84 IN 5.57 IN -1.73 IN 68.9%  
GENEVA 5.55 IN 7.67 IN -2.12 IN 72.4%  
DEFUNIAK SPGS 4.73 IN 7.56 IN -2.83 IN 62.5%  
MAYO 1.88 IN 5.28 IN -3.40 IN 35.6%  
 
RIVER AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...  
 
THE AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS OVER THE LAST 14 DAYS ACROSS THE SEVERE  
DROUGHT AREA ARE LARGELY BELOW NORMAL. THE BIG BEND COASTAL  
RIVERS (AUCILLA, SOPCHOPPY, ST. MARKS, FENHOLLOWAY, AND  
STEINHATCHEE) REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL. SEVERAL POINTS  
ALONG THE SUWANNEE RIVER HAVE NOW FALLEN BELOW NORMAL AS WELL,  
INCLUDING ELLAVILLE (20TH PERCENTILE), BRANFORD (25TH PERCENTILE),  
AND WILCOX (15TH PERCENTILE). THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER BOTH NEAR  
QUITMAN AND AT SKIPPER BRIDGE IS ALSO BELOW NORMAL, HOVERING  
AROUND THE 20TH PERCENTILE. THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER IS BELOW NORMAL  
AS WELL, RANGING FROM THE 23RD PERCENTILE AT THOMASVILLE TO THE  
14TH PERCENTILE AT BLOXHAM.  
 
ON THE FLINT RIVER SIDE OF THE ACF BASIN BELOW LAKE BLACKSHEAR,  
STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL AS ARE DOWNSTREAM FLOWS IN THE  
CHATTAHOOCHEE SIDE. THIS IS GENERALLY DUE TO THE HEAVIER RAINS THAT  
HAVE FALLEN UPSTREAM IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THE LAST COUPLE  
WEEKS. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE SMALLER TRIBUTARIES THAT FEED INTO THE  
FLINT, SUCH AS THE SPRING AND ICHAWAYNOCHAWAY CREEKS, ARE NOW FALLING  
BELOW NORMAL. DOWNSTREAM ON THE APALACHICOLA, STREAMFLOWS ARE  
NEAR NORMAL. THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA RIVERS  
ARE NEAR NORMAL.  
 
FIRE DANGER LEVELS...  
 
THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX HAS COME DOWN SOME IN THE PAST COUPLE  
WEEKS WITH VALUES OVER 300 AROUND LAKE SEMINOLE AND IN THE SOUTHEAST  
FLORIDA BIG BEND. LOWER VALUES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF  
THE AREA.  
 
ONLY ONE COUNTY IN THE FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY UNDER A BURN  
BAN - FRANKLIN COUNTY, FLORIDA. NO OTHER RESTRICTIONS ARE  
CURRENTLY POSTED.  
 
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...  
   
..LONG RANGE 90 DAY OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY
 
 
THE CURRENT STATUS OF THE EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) IS IN  
THE COOL PHASE, MEANING LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE  
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. WHEN IN THE COOL PHASE OF LA NINA, WINTER ACROSS  
THE SOUTHEASTERN US TYPICALLY FEATURES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND  
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AS THE JET STREAM GENERALLY STAYS FURTHER  
TO THE NORTH, KEEPING THE PREVAILING STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
US THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS.  
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION IN THE WINTER SEASON IN LA  
NINA YEARS ARE TYPICALLY DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL HIGH  
TEMPERATURES, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BEING FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL, AS  
THE DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TYPICALLY SUPPORT LARGE DIURNAL  
TEMPERATURE RANGES.  
 
FOR THE 90 DAY PERIOD BEGINNING JANUARY 1ST, THERE IS A 50 TO 60  
PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT  
CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE,  
THE NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL ARE LISTED FOR  
SELECT STATIONS ACROSS THE REGION DURING JANUARY, FEBRUARY, AND  
MARCH.  
 
LOCATION NORM HIGH NORM LOW NORM PRECIP  
--------------------------------------------------------  
TALLAHASSEE (JAN) 63.9 40.5 4.41  
TALLAHASSEE (FEB) 67.8 43.5 4.28  
TALLAHASSEE (MAR) 74.2 48.6 5.24  
--------------------------------------------------------  
DOTHAN (JAN) 61.7 39.8 4.76  
DOTHAN (FEB) 65.8 43.3 4.82  
DOTHAN (MAR) 72.9 48.8 4.72  
--------------------------------------------------------  
ALBANY (JAN) 62.0 39.1 4.19  
ALBANY (FEB) 66.0 42.1 4.01  
ALBANY (MAR) 72.6 48.1 4.38  
 
...RECENT CLIMATE REVIEW AND SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NOVEMBER  
30TH...  
 
THE FIRST HALF OF JANUARY HAS BEEN VERY WARM ACROSS THE AREA.  
DOTHAN, ALBANY, MARIANNA, VALDOSTA, AND CROSS CITY HAVE ALL HAD A  
TOP 5 WARMEST START TO JANUARY. TALLAHASSEE AND APALACHICOLA ARE IN  
THE TOP 10. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE NEAR-FREEZING NIGHTS, BUT DAYS  
HAVE FREQUENTLY FEATURED HIGHS IN THE 70S TO START THE MONTH.  
 
REGARDING PRECIPITATION, MOST AREAS ARE NEAR NORMAL TO START THE  
MONTH OF JANUARY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL SOME DRIER SPOTS. IN  
FACT, MARIANNA IS CURRENTLY HAVING THEIR 8TH DRIEST START TO JANUARY  
ON RECORD. DEFICITS IN THE LONGER TERM CONTINUE TO GROW, HOWEVER,  
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  
 
FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY SO FAR, OBSERVED AVERAGE HIGH AND LOW  
TEMPERATURES FOR SELECTED STATIONS APPEAR BELOW. DEPARTURES FROM  
NORMAL APPEAR IN PARENTHESES.  
 
FROM JANUARY 1ST THROUGH JANUARY 12TH:  
 
LOCATION AVG HIGH AVG LOW  
-----------------------------------------  
TALLAHASSEE 73.3 (+9.5) 47.7 (+7.2)  
DOTHAN 72.0 (+10.5) 49.3 (+9.4)  
ALBANY 71.4 (+9.8) 44.6 (+5.3)  
 
OVER THE NEXT 10 TO 14 DAYS, WE WILL SEE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE  
PATTERN WITH TROUGHS SWINGING THROUGH, BRINGING COLD FRONTS AND  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, IT DOESN'T APPEAR  
THAT THERE ARE MANY SIGNALS FOR COLDER WEATHER ON THE HORIZON  
OUTSIDE OF THIS CURRENT COLD SPELL.  
 
TURNING OVER TO PRECIPITATION, WE MAY SEE A FEW SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH  
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 10 TO 14 DAYS. SOME OF THE RAINFALL COULD  
PROVE BENEFICIAL. FARTHER EAST, HOWEVER, RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR LESS  
ROBUST AS SYSTEMS TEND TO WEAKEN OR LIFT OUT BEFORE ARRIVING TO THE  
FLORIDA BIG BEND OR SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THUS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT  
LITTLE CHANGE IN DROUGHT EXTENT AND INTENSITY MAY OCCUR IN THESE  
AREAS OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS.  
 
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...  
 
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED BY THURSDAY, JANUARY 26TH OR SOONER  
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. DROUGHT STATEMENTS ARE ISSUED BY THE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE WHENEVER SEVERE DROUGHT  
/CATEGORY D2/ IS OCCURING IN OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.  
 
RELATED WEBSITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT  
CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES:  
 
US DROUGHT MONITOR HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL/EDU  
 
SOUTHEAST CLIMATE CENTER HTTPS://WWW.SERCC.COM/  
 
RIVER INFORMATION FROM NWS TALLAHASSEE  
HTTPS://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TAE  
 
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER  
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV  
 
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...  
 
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL  
WEATHER SERVICE, NATIONAL CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION, THE  
USDA, STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL  
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN  
GATHERED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES AND PARTNER AGENCIES.  
 
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...  
 
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION  
STATEMENT PLEASE CONTACT:  
 
KELLY GODSEY CAMERON YOUNG  
SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST METEOROLOGIST  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
TALLAHASSEE FL 32306 TALLAHASSEE FL 32306  
850-942-8833 EXT 228 850-942-8833 OPT 9  
KELLY.GODSEY@NOAA.GOV CAMERON.YOUNG@NOAA.GOV  
 

 
 
YOUNG  
 

 
 
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