115
AXUS72 KTAE 140906
DGTTAE
ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067-
073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-
087-095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-
287-321-210915-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
406 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2023 /306 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2023/
...SEVERE DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FAR
SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
...DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FROM RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGES HAS FINALLY HELPED
ALLEVIATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA. HOWEVER, RAINFALL HAS BEEN LESS PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA, WHICH
REMAINS THE DRIEST PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
TODAY, SATURDAY, JANUARY 14TH, THE LATEST ISSUANCE OF THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWED SEVERE DROUGHT /CATEGORY D2/ ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND INTO THE NEIGHBORING GEORGIA COUNTIES.
MODERATE DROUGHT /CATEGORY D1/ CONDITIONS CONTINUE FROM ROUGHLY
SEAGROVE BEACH, FL TO LEESBURG, GA, EASTWARD OUTSIDE OF THE SEVERE
DROUGHT AREA. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS /CATEGORY D0/ EXIST FOR
NEARLY THE REST OF THE AREA. NO DROUGHT CATEGORIES ARE OBSERVED IN
NORTHWESTERN WALTON, WESTERN GENEVA, AND SOUTHWESTERN COFFEE
COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW YEAR HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL,
THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE NEAR-FREEZING NIGHTS. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE LATELY, BRINGING MORE FREQUENT
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND SHOTS AT RAIN. HOWEVER, STORM SYSTEMS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN LIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BEFORE PROVIDING
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO OUR EASTERN AREAS. THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
2 WEEKS FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING WITH A SLIGHT
TILT TOWARD FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS.
STATE/LOCAL ACTION...
THE STATE OF ALABAMA HAS ISSUED A DROUGHT ADVISORY FOR COFFEE, DALE,
GENEVA, AND HOUSTON COUNTIES IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. WHEN IN A
DROUGHT ADVISORY, THE STATE OF ALABAMA ADVISES EFFICIENT USE OF WATER
RESOURCES. PUBLIC WATER CUSTOMERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO FOLLOW LOCAL
WATER SYSTEM RECOMMENDATIONS REGARDING WATER USE.
IN FLORIDA, THERE IS A COUNTYWIDE BURN BAN FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY.
CLIMATE SUMMARY / IMPACTS
SINCE THE LAST ISSUANCE OF THE DROUGHT STATEMENT, BENEFICIAL RAIN
HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE FLINT AND APALACHICOLA
RIVERS WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES WEST OF THESE RIVERS. HOWEVER, THE LOWEST
AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND WHERE
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE ONLY AVERAGED AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. RAINFALL
FOR THE LAST 2 WEEKS HAS BEEN ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL IN
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND WALTON AND HOLMES COUNTIES, FL. MEANWHILE,
IT'S BEEN ABOUT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AREA, OUTSIDE OF THE THOMASVILLE, GA AND APALACHICOLA, FL
VICINITIES.
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECASTS, ANOTHER FRONT WILL LIKELY PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK, BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO
THE AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE 0.5 INCHES OR LESS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 7 TO 10 DAY
PERIOD AS WELL, WHICH MAY BRING MORE RAINFALL.
THE FOLLOWING RAINFALL STATISTICS ARE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT SELECTED
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE TABLES INDICATE RAINFALL
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL SINCE JUNE 1ST, 2022, SEPTEMBER 1ST, 2022,
AND DECEMBER 1ST, 2022 AS NOTED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CURRENT
THROUGH THURSDAY, JANUARY 12TH.
LOCATION RAINFALL NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT OF
SINCE 6/1 VALUE FROM NORMAL NORMAL
TALLAHASSEE 38.91 IN 39.64 IN -0.73 IN 98.2%
APALACHICOLA 39.03 IN 37.24 IN +1.79 IN 104.8%
PANAMA CITY 32.23 IN 38.90 IN -6.67 IN 82.9%
DOTHAN 28.87 IN 33.92 IN -5.05 IN 85.1%
ALBANY 26.82 IN 29.58 IN -2.76 IN 90.7%
VALDOSTA 28.06 IN 32.48 IN -4.42 IN 86.4%
CROSS CITY 24.89 IN 37.16 IN -12.27 IN 67.0%
MARIANNA 23.49 IN 32.32 IN -8.83 IN 72.7%
CARRABELLE 34.24 IN 40.72 IN -6.48 IN 84.1%
GENEVA 32.73 IN 39.19 IN -6.46 IN 83.5%
DEFUNIAK SPGS 34.02 IN 43.16 IN -9.14 IN 78.8%
MAYO 21.06 IN 39.03 IN -17.97 IN 54.0%
LOCATION RAINFALL NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT OF
SINCE 9/1 VALUE FROM NORMAL NORMAL
TALLAHASSEE 7.94 IN 17.14 IN -9.20 IN 46.3%
APALACHICOLA 17.77 IN 17.85 IN -0.08 IN 99.6%
PANAMA CITY 15.00 IN 19.29 IN -4.29 IN 77.7%
DOTHAN 11.86 IN 16.72 IN -4.86 IN 70.9%
ALBANY 9.96 IN 14.57 IN -4.61 IN 68.4%
VALDOSTA 8.05 IN 14.96 IN -6.91 IN 53.8%
CROSS CITY 6.05 IN 14.29 IN -8.24 IN 42.3%
MARIANNA 7.77 IN 17.29 IN -9.52 IN 44.9%
CARRABELLE 13.88 IN 18.69 IN -4.81 IN 74.3%
GENEVA 13.38 IN 21.16 IN -7.78 IN 63.2%
DEFUNIAK SPGS 12.09 IN 21.61 IN -9.52 IN 55.9%
MAYO 7.40 IN 15.78 IN -8.38 IN 46.9%
LOCATION RAINFALL NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT OF
SINCE 12/1 VALUE FROM NORMAL NORMAL
TALLAHASSEE 3.00 IN 5.89 IN -2.89 IN 50.9%
APALACHICOLA 5.47 IN 5.10 IN +0.37 IN 107.3%
PANAMA CITY 4.88 IN 6.48 IN -1.60 IN 75.3%
DOTHAN 6.01 IN 6.84 IN -0.83 IN 87.9%
ALBANY 3.32 IN 5.96 IN -2.64 IN 55.7%
VALDOSTA 2.49 IN 4.56 IN -2.07 IN 54.6%
CROSS CITY 1.40 IN 4.14 IN -2.74 IN 33.8%
MARIANNA 2.26 IN 6.44 IN -4.18 IN 35.1%
CARRABELLE 3.84 IN 5.57 IN -1.73 IN 68.9%
GENEVA 5.55 IN 7.67 IN -2.12 IN 72.4%
DEFUNIAK SPGS 4.73 IN 7.56 IN -2.83 IN 62.5%
MAYO 1.88 IN 5.28 IN -3.40 IN 35.6%
RIVER AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...
THE AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS OVER THE LAST 14 DAYS ACROSS THE SEVERE
DROUGHT AREA ARE LARGELY BELOW NORMAL. THE BIG BEND COASTAL
RIVERS (AUCILLA, SOPCHOPPY, ST. MARKS, FENHOLLOWAY, AND
STEINHATCHEE) REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL. SEVERAL POINTS
ALONG THE SUWANNEE RIVER HAVE NOW FALLEN BELOW NORMAL AS WELL,
INCLUDING ELLAVILLE (20TH PERCENTILE), BRANFORD (25TH PERCENTILE),
AND WILCOX (15TH PERCENTILE). THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER BOTH NEAR
QUITMAN AND AT SKIPPER BRIDGE IS ALSO BELOW NORMAL, HOVERING
AROUND THE 20TH PERCENTILE. THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER IS BELOW NORMAL
AS WELL, RANGING FROM THE 23RD PERCENTILE AT THOMASVILLE TO THE
14TH PERCENTILE AT BLOXHAM.
ON THE FLINT RIVER SIDE OF THE ACF BASIN BELOW LAKE BLACKSHEAR,
STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL AS ARE DOWNSTREAM FLOWS IN THE
CHATTAHOOCHEE SIDE. THIS IS GENERALLY DUE TO THE HEAVIER RAINS THAT
HAVE FALLEN UPSTREAM IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THE LAST COUPLE
WEEKS. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE SMALLER TRIBUTARIES THAT FEED INTO THE
FLINT, SUCH AS THE SPRING AND ICHAWAYNOCHAWAY CREEKS, ARE NOW FALLING
BELOW NORMAL. DOWNSTREAM ON THE APALACHICOLA, STREAMFLOWS ARE
NEAR NORMAL. THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA RIVERS
ARE NEAR NORMAL.
FIRE DANGER LEVELS...
THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX HAS COME DOWN SOME IN THE PAST COUPLE
WEEKS WITH VALUES OVER 300 AROUND LAKE SEMINOLE AND IN THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA BIG BEND. LOWER VALUES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA.
ONLY ONE COUNTY IN THE FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY UNDER A BURN
BAN - FRANKLIN COUNTY, FLORIDA. NO OTHER RESTRICTIONS ARE
CURRENTLY POSTED.
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
..LONG RANGE 90 DAY OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY
THE CURRENT STATUS OF THE EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) IS IN
THE COOL PHASE, MEANING LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. WHEN IN THE COOL PHASE OF LA NINA, WINTER ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN US TYPICALLY FEATURES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AS THE JET STREAM GENERALLY STAYS FURTHER
TO THE NORTH, KEEPING THE PREVAILING STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION IN THE WINTER SEASON IN LA
NINA YEARS ARE TYPICALLY DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BEING FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL, AS
THE DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TYPICALLY SUPPORT LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES.
FOR THE 90 DAY PERIOD BEGINNING JANUARY 1ST, THERE IS A 50 TO 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE,
THE NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL ARE LISTED FOR
SELECT STATIONS ACROSS THE REGION DURING JANUARY, FEBRUARY, AND
MARCH.
LOCATION NORM HIGH NORM LOW NORM PRECIP
--------------------------------------------------------
TALLAHASSEE (JAN) 63.9 40.5 4.41
TALLAHASSEE (FEB) 67.8 43.5 4.28
TALLAHASSEE (MAR) 74.2 48.6 5.24
--------------------------------------------------------
DOTHAN (JAN) 61.7 39.8 4.76
DOTHAN (FEB) 65.8 43.3 4.82
DOTHAN (MAR) 72.9 48.8 4.72
--------------------------------------------------------
ALBANY (JAN) 62.0 39.1 4.19
ALBANY (FEB) 66.0 42.1 4.01
ALBANY (MAR) 72.6 48.1 4.38
...RECENT CLIMATE REVIEW AND SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NOVEMBER
30TH...
THE FIRST HALF OF JANUARY HAS BEEN VERY WARM ACROSS THE AREA.
DOTHAN, ALBANY, MARIANNA, VALDOSTA, AND CROSS CITY HAVE ALL HAD A
TOP 5 WARMEST START TO JANUARY. TALLAHASSEE AND APALACHICOLA ARE IN
THE TOP 10. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE NEAR-FREEZING NIGHTS, BUT DAYS
HAVE FREQUENTLY FEATURED HIGHS IN THE 70S TO START THE MONTH.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION, MOST AREAS ARE NEAR NORMAL TO START THE
MONTH OF JANUARY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL SOME DRIER SPOTS. IN
FACT, MARIANNA IS CURRENTLY HAVING THEIR 8TH DRIEST START TO JANUARY
ON RECORD. DEFICITS IN THE LONGER TERM CONTINUE TO GROW, HOWEVER,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY SO FAR, OBSERVED AVERAGE HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR SELECTED STATIONS APPEAR BELOW. DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL APPEAR IN PARENTHESES.
FROM JANUARY 1ST THROUGH JANUARY 12TH:
LOCATION AVG HIGH AVG LOW
-----------------------------------------
TALLAHASSEE 73.3 (+9.5) 47.7 (+7.2)
DOTHAN 72.0 (+10.5) 49.3 (+9.4)
ALBANY 71.4 (+9.8) 44.6 (+5.3)
OVER THE NEXT 10 TO 14 DAYS, WE WILL SEE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH TROUGHS SWINGING THROUGH, BRINGING COLD FRONTS AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, IT DOESN'T APPEAR
THAT THERE ARE MANY SIGNALS FOR COLDER WEATHER ON THE HORIZON
OUTSIDE OF THIS CURRENT COLD SPELL.
TURNING OVER TO PRECIPITATION, WE MAY SEE A FEW SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 10 TO 14 DAYS. SOME OF THE RAINFALL COULD
PROVE BENEFICIAL. FARTHER EAST, HOWEVER, RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR LESS
ROBUST AS SYSTEMS TEND TO WEAKEN OR LIFT OUT BEFORE ARRIVING TO THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND OR SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THUS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
LITTLE CHANGE IN DROUGHT EXTENT AND INTENSITY MAY OCCUR IN THESE
AREAS OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED BY THURSDAY, JANUARY 26TH OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. DROUGHT STATEMENTS ARE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE WHENEVER SEVERE DROUGHT
/CATEGORY D2/ IS OCCURING IN OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.
RELATED WEBSITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES:
US DROUGHT MONITOR HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL/EDU
SOUTHEAST CLIMATE CENTER HTTPS://WWW.SERCC.COM/
RIVER INFORMATION FROM NWS TALLAHASSEE
HTTPS://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TAE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE, NATIONAL CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION, THE
USDA, STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
GATHERED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES AND PARTNER AGENCIES.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT PLEASE CONTACT:
KELLY GODSEY CAMERON YOUNG
SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST METEOROLOGIST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TALLAHASSEE FL 32306 TALLAHASSEE FL 32306
850-942-8833 EXT 228 850-942-8833 OPT 9
KELLY.GODSEY@NOAA.GOV CAMERON.YOUNG@NOAA.GOV
YOUNG
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