028  
FXUS62 KTAE 172326  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
726 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2018  
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY]
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [458 PM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM SOUTHWEST GEORGIA  
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF THE EMERALD COAST THIS  
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD MAKE SOME PROGRESS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT IN  
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DIGGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. LIMITED MOISTURE AND  
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP POPS BELOW  
MENTIONABLE LEVELS OVERNIGHT. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS SHOULD  
FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWS  
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM  
PANAMA CITY, FL, TO VALDOSTA, GA. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO DROP WELL INTO  
THE 50S, WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA  
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE COASTAL  
COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND, EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN WELL  
INTO THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S, TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  
 
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG LOOKS MUCH LOWER TONIGHT  
AS THE SHALLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SHALLOW FRONTAL SLOPE  
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENS AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]
 
 
THE FRONT WILL SHARPEN AND ADVANCE THROUGH THE COASTAL FLORIDA BIG  
BEND ON THURSDAY. ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT AS  
LIFT REMAINS WEAK OVERALL. PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED  
WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN COASTAL  
AREAS WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 80S BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH  
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND  
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 80  
DEGREES ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY.  
 
THE FRONT PUSHES WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH  
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ADVECTING INTO COASTAL AREAS. GUSTY  
NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE BEACHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS  
THE SHARPENING TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COOLER LAND SURFACES  
AND WARMER MARINE AREAS TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOW  
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA  
AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S RIGHT ALONG THE  
COAST WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT  
WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOW  
HUMIDITY LEVELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO  
MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]
 
 
A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE A SOUTHWARD MOVING  
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP  
LAYER MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH THE PROJECTED STRONG  
LOW TO MID LEVEL FORCING SHOULD PROVE AMPLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A  
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY  
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAST  
MOVING AND RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN HALF  
AN INCH AT THIS TIME. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW IN THE  
FRONTS WAKE WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT  
ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF  
MEXICO. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO  
THE 50S NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE MID 40S AT MORE INTERIOR  
LOCATIONS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW  
TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY AS  
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAD DOMINATED THE LOCAL WEATHER  
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A MOIST EAST TO  
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. UPSTREAM  
ANOTHER MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN  
CANADA IS DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT LYING ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN  
STATES SOUTHWARD THAT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR  
LATER.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
TIGHTENS BETWEEN A BUILDING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND A WEAK  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS  
FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BEFORE SEAS AND WINDS  
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL AGAIN  
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN  
POSSIBLE FOR SMALL CRAFT.  
 
WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY DIMINISH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A STRONG  
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY EVENING.  
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS WITH SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING THROUGH SUNDAY INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
DISPERSION INDICES TOMORROW AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM FAIR  
TO GENERALLY GOOD BUT FALL INTO THE POOR TO GENERALLY POOR  
CATEGORIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER  
CONCERNS. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH PATCHY  
FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
THE CHIPOLA RIVER AT ALTHA IS CURRENTLY IN ACTION STAGE WITH A STAGE  
OF 21.1 FEET. THE CHIPOLA RIVER AT ALTHA IS FORECAST TO RISE TO  
MINOR FLOOD STAGE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST  
NEAR 22.4 FEET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL REMAIN IN  
MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOOD WARNING IS  
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 66 85 64 85 68 / 0 10 10 10 10  
PANAMA CITY 67 84 65 85 69 / 0 10 10 10 20  
DOTHAN 62 80 61 81 65 / 0 0 10 10 10  
ALBANY 64 80 61 80 66 / 0 0 10 10 10  
VALDOSTA 66 85 63 83 66 / 10 0 10 10 10  
CROSS CITY 71 86 69 87 70 / 10 30 10 20 20  
APALACHICOLA 69 83 69 84 71 / 0 10 10 10 20  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...HOWELL  
SHORT TERM...HOWELL  
LONG TERM...WERNER  
AVIATION...DVD  
MARINE...HOWELL  
FIRE WEATHER...WERNER  
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON  
 
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