054
FXUS62 KTAE 110712
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
212 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 208 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN STARTING TONIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A LIGHT FREEZE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS WELL AS A
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
- THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BRING
A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-40%) OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY EXIT EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE
FRONT, COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING IN
THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
FOR TONIGHT, CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
A LIGHT FREEZE FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES INTO NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WITH A LIGHT BREEZE STILL BLOWING, WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. VALUES ARE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NEEDING A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PULL THE
TRIGGER ON THAT AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
MONDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST BIG BEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE CENTER OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT, AND ANOTHER LIGHT
FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY MORNING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY
MODIFY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. THIS
NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY A LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS (20-40%). HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT LOOKS
FAIRLY STRONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE FOR THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER REINFORCING BLAST OF COLD AIR. ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE IS
EXPECTED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
AS OF 05Z, COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS OCCURRED AT ABY AND DHN W/
WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NW. MEANWHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
FOG WAS DEVELOPING AT TLH AND VLD; EXPECT LIFR AT BOTH SITES
UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, MVFR CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST 10-15Z. BEHIND THE FRONT, NW
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20-25 KTS UNTIL ~00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 208 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AFTERWARDS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH WINDS AND
SEAS RELAXING. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IN
FACT, THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (30-50 PERCENT) OF GALE FORCE GUSTS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 208 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN HIGH
DISPERSIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING
FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON MONDAY, AND POCKETS OF LOW DISPERSIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS A RESULT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 208 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER, AMOUNTS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM ALSO APPEAR TO BE
QUITE LIGHT.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN
THEY OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 62 35 55 31 / 20 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 62 36 56 36 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 57 30 52 31 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 58 30 53 29 / 10 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 64 32 54 30 / 20 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 68 35 60 37 / 40 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 62 38 55 38 / 20 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
FOR GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ735.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ751-752-770-
772.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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