459
FXUS62 KTAE 060639
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
239 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- INCREASING HEAT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT OR DO NOT HAVE ACCESS TO
ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION COULD BE IMPACTED BY THE HEAT.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG ALL AREA BEACHES. IT
IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF ON HIGH RISK DAYS. PLEASE
HEED THE BEACH FLAGS AND ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
GENERALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND. HIGHS
WILL SLOWLY CREEP UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MAX HEAT INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S
AND LOW 100S. WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD ON MONDAY, HIGHS MAY EVEN
APPROACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL BIG BEND,
ALTHOUGH DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES WELL BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108F). WHILE LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
CRITERIA, SOME HEAT IMPACTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST, TURNING OUR
WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY. A QUICKER
MOISTENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE ONCE MORE OF AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW IS ESTABLISHED. RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL HELP HAMPER ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND
DESPITE RISING MOISTURE LEVELS, WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORECAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SE AL. AS THIS RIDGING BREAKS
DOWN NEXT WEEK, RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE AREA-WIDE
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
RETURNS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, A FEW POCKETS OF FOG ARE ATTEMPTING TO FORM
ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, SO WILL MONITOR THOSE TRENDS FOR KECP
AND KTLH AROUND SUNRISE, OR BETWEEN 10-12Z. SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
EARLY THIS MORNING TURN MORE SOUTHERLY FOR KTLH AND KECP AS THE
SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR KECP AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE NOT IN THE TAFS, THERE IS A LOW, LESS THAN 20 PERCENT,
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN KECP AND KDHN. HAVE LEFT
MENTIONED OF RAIN OR STORMS OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE,
BUT IT'S SOMETHING WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE DAY PROGRESSES,
WITH MOST LIKELY TIME-FRAME BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
PREVAILING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL FOSTER MODERATE
SOUTHEAST BREEZES THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAKENING NOCTURNAL SURGES.
DAILY AFTERNOON SEABREEZES WILL DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AGAINST A BACKGROUND OF MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHEAST AL. TRANSPORT WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-15 MPH, THOUGH BECOMING MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL BE MORE VARIABLE.
DISPERSIONS WILL REMAIN GOOD AREA-WIDE. MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER SPARSE OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THUS, WHILE
LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT, FLOODING CONCERNS
ARE LOW. ALL AREA RIVERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ACTION STAGE AS WELL.
SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS AS THESE AREAS MISSED OUT ON THE
MOST BENEFICIAL RECENT RAINS AND RIVERS ARE STRUGGLING TO RECOVER.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT IMPACTS, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 91 70 92 73 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 88 73 89 73 / 10 0 10 0
DOTHAN 89 70 89 72 / 10 0 10 0
ALBANY 90 69 90 73 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 91 69 93 72 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 93 69 95 72 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 84 74 86 74 / 0 0 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page