522
FXUS62 KTAE 042003
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
403 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
- THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN ARRIVES THURSDAY THANKS TO ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
THE MAIN TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY IN THE FORECAST IS THE NEXT COLD
FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH GUSTY
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
PRIOR TO THAT, A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ON THURSDAY,
SEASONABLY HIGH SHEAR AND SURFACE INSTABILITY IS MODELED AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OR PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE FL BIG BEND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT MIXING TO AROUND 925 HPA, WHERE WINDS APPROACH
30 MPH, SO THAT VALUE IS A CEILING FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS ON THURSDAY. SHOWER CHANCES LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
POPS LIKELY TO BE FURTHER FINE TUNED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, SEAS WILL APPROACH 3 FEET ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TUESDAY AS MINRH RECOVERS AROUND OR ABOVE 40
PERCENT TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO HIGH DISPERSIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. INCREASING CLOUDINESS
WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS BY THURSDAY WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 82 56 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 79 58 80 67 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 79 52 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 80 54 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 82 56 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 85 58 87 61 / 0 0 10 0
APALACHICOLA 76 61 77 67 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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