220
FXUS62 KTAE 110014
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
814 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 811 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- NEAR-RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
MORNING. USE CAUTION ON YOUR MORNING COMMUTES SHOULD YOU
ENCOUNTER DENSE FOG.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30-40%) CHANCE OF 1" OR MORE OF RAIN WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT'S FORECAST TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 811 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
EXPANDED FOG MORE INTO SW GEORGIA. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG. AFTERNOON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS OVER APALACHEE BAY
WESTWARD TO OFF THE PANHANDLE COAST. BEACH WEBCAMS INDICATED DENSE
MARINE FOG OFF THE PANHANDLE COAST AND THUS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IN NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF MEXICO BEACH THROUGH 7PM CDT.
HIGH RES MODELS SHOW FOG DEVELOPING IN APALACHEE BAY THIS EVENING
THEN MOVING INLAND INTO COASTAL SECTIONS WHILE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO SE ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH FOG
DECREASING TOWARDS MID MORNING.
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY. 500
MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH TEXAS. WARMEST 850MB TEMPERATURES SHIFT EAST AS
WELL LINING UP ALONG I75 AND POINTS EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES FROM THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND
NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH MID 80S FURTHER WEST INTO
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS TEXAS WILL WEAKEN AND OPEN AS IT
REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE SUPPORTED COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE LINE WILL
BE IN THE PROGRESS OF WEAKENING AS IT MAKES IT TO I75 THURSDAY
LATE MORNING. A SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND WOULD FAVOR
WEST OF APALACHICOLA/FLINT RIVERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREAT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE PASSAGE AND
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 70S OR UPPER 60S
THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 70S. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SCOOT EAST SATURDAY WITH
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US MONDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 811 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
LOW CEILINGS/VISIBILITY RESULT IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS AT KECP AND KTLH. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
AT KECP LATER THIS EVENING, WHEREAS FOG AT KTLH HOLDS OFF UNTIL
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, LINGERING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOMORROW MID MORNING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KDHN AND KVLD, HOWEVER, VISIBILITY DROPS TO
IFR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AT THESE TWO SITES. AT KABY, A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AROUND SUNRISE. IN
GENERAL, WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR WESTERN NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM CDT / 8 PM EDT. FOG IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TURN OUT OF THE NORTH- NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS. CHANCES FOR GALES ARE NOW VERY
LOW (10% OR LESS). WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND BECOME GENTLE TO
MODERATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY LEADING TO
HIGH DISPERSIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY BRINGING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHERLY
WINDS TAKE HOLD AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY THEN LIGHTEN
UP WHILE TURNING EASTERLY FRIDAY. FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY
WILL REMAIN DRY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
MOST LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES WITH
THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. THE REASONABLE HIGH-END TOTALS ARE AROUND 1 TO
1.5 INCHES. NBM HAS PROBABILITIES OF 1 INCH OR MORE AT 30-50
PERCENT, WHILE THE LREF (A COMPOSITE OF GEFS, GEPS, AND EPS) HAS
THOSE PROBABILITIES AT 10-20 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES HAVE NOT
CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A PERIOD OF DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 62 86 65 75 / 0 0 30 90
PANAMA CITY 65 80 64 74 / 0 0 60 70
DOTHAN 64 86 59 69 / 0 0 70 70
ALBANY 62 87 61 71 / 0 0 50 80
VALDOSTA 61 89 63 74 / 0 0 10 90
CROSS CITY 59 87 61 79 / 0 0 0 80
APALACHICOLA 64 76 65 73 / 0 0 30 80
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
GMZ730-735-751-752-755-765-772-775.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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