746
FXUS62 KTAE 172331
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
731 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
- AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, AND FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FOG WHILE DRIVING, THEN SLOW DOWN, USE LOW BEAM
HEADLIGHTS, AND INCREASE BRAKING DISTANCE.
- MULTIPLE DAYS OF CRITICAL OR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED BEGINNING SATURDAY. THE MOST CRITICAL COMBINATION OF
WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL COME ON MONDAY. PLEASE OBEY LOCAL
BURN BANS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH
SUNRISE SATURDAY OVER THE FL PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, AND THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF GEORGIA. IN THESE AREAS, SHALLOW SEABREEZE
MOISTURE HAS PUSHED DEWPOINTS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES.
FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE CONCERN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INLAND FL BIG BEND AND EAST OF THE FLINT RIVER
IN GEORGIA. WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY IN
THESE AREAS. ADMITTEDLY, THIS BENDS OUR WIND AND RH CRITERIA A
LITTLE BIT, BUT ALL THE NUDGERS ARE THERE TO USE PROFESSIONAL
DISCRETION IN ISSUING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA, RH WILL BE WITHIN 5 PERCENT OF CRITERIA. MODERATE BREEZES
WILL DEVELOP, WITH WIND GUSTS NEARING 20 MPH. DISPERSION WILL BE
VERY HIGH, WITH VALUES IN THE 95-120 RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH 88-92 DEGREES, NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN SOME CASES. THE HOT DRY
WINDY INDEX WILL EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR IN SOUTH GEORGIA, AT A TIME OF YEAR WHEN WE ARE ALREADY
HEADING TOWARD THE HDW'S ANNUAL CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK IN EARLY MAY.
OF COURSE, D4 DROUGHT HAS LED TO STRESSED AND EXTREMELY DRY FUELS.
SO EVEN IF WE MISS OUR RED FLAG CRITERIA BY A FEW PERCENT ON RH,
OR A COUPLE MILES-PER-HOUR ON WIND, ALL SIGNS POINT TO A FIRE
ENVIRONMENT FAVORING A HIGH RISK OF NEW LARGE WILDFIRES,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FURTHER WEST OVER THE PANHANDLE
AND WEST OF THE FLINT, AN ACTIVE FIRE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED,
BUT RH WILL BE TOO FAR REMOVED FROM RFW CRITERIA TO JUSTIFY A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING.
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL KICK IN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT, USHERING IN A
DRIER AIR MASS. RH NORTH OF I-10 WILL DROP INTO THE 27-35 PERCENT
RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN TO NEAR THE AFTERNOON NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME IN APRIL. CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH ABOUT MID-
AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD BE AN INHIBITOR TO FIRE BEHAVIOR.
ON MONDAY, WE WILL BE IN THE HEART OF THE DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 30S WITH UPPER 70S-MID 80S
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BRING MIN RH INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE.
SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH WILL
COMBINE WITH THE VERY LOW RH TO SUPPORT RAPID SPREAD ON ANY
UNCONTROLLED FIRE. A LONG LEAD-TIME FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED, WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE SOME OF THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS
FORECAST, I.E. WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. LATER EXPANSION OF THE
WATCH IS POSSIBLE.
BEYOND MONDAY, UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD BACK IN, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, NO RAIN IS FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR ECP
SEEING RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO LIFR OR LOWER DUE TO BOTH FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS. OTHERWISE, TLH AND ABY ARE ON THE FRINGE AND MAY SEE
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THE FOG WILL LIFT AND
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, SUPPORTING VARIABLE WINDS WITH
DOMINANT NEARSHORE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED
AT FIRST BY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. STRONG BREEZES WILL CLOCK AROUND
EASTERLY BY TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
CRITICAL AND NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE COMING UP
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EAST OF THE FLINT RIVER IN GEORGIA WHERE
AFTERNOON RH WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT, WIND WILL
EXCEED 12 MPH, WHERE DISPERSION WILL REACH THE VERY HIGH 95-120
RANGE, TEMPERATURES OF 88-92 DEGREES WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGHS,
AND WHERE THE HOT DRY WINDY INDEX EXCEEDS THE 90TH PERCENTILE
(STRONG CONTRIBUTIONS FROM HOT AND DRY).
A DRY COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH, AND RH WILL BE DROPPING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A DRIER AIR MASS ARRIVES. LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND
SHADING OF FUELS WILL BE THE MAIN INHIBITOR TO ACTIVE FIRE
BEHAVIOR ON SUNDAY.
ON MONDAY, A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION, WITH
MIN RH COMMONLY IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 MPH, SUPPORTING EXTREMELY HIGH DISPERSION.
FULL SUNSHINE, SEASONABLY WARM LATE APRIL TEMPERATURES, AND
ONGOING DROUGHT WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO A CRITICAL FIRE
ENVIRONMENT.
BEYOND MONDAY, THE DRY AIR MASS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND, AND DISPERSIONS WILL BE
HIGH, BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ANY SPOTTY RAIN
THAT COMES WITH THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BE A HYDROLOGICALLY
INSIGNIFICANT QUARTER-INCH OR LESS. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OR WORSEN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE FOLLOWING
WEBSITES: WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 58 89 63 82 / 0 0 0 20
PANAMA CITY 65 80 66 78 / 0 0 0 20
DOTHAN 59 86 61 72 / 0 0 0 30
ALBANY 61 88 62 76 / 0 0 0 20
VALDOSTA 60 91 62 83 / 0 0 0 10
CROSS CITY 57 89 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 63 79 67 79 / 0 0 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR FLZ010>019-027>029-034-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
426.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ013-016>019-027-326-426.
GA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR GAZ143>147-155>160.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR GAZ125-127>131-145>148-156>161.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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