107
FXUS62 KTAE 111736
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
136 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
- THE DAILY CYCLE OF MORNING COASTAL STORMS AND AFTERNOON INLAND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- MODERATE HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY FOR THE NEXT
WEEK, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY REACHING THE 98-106
DEGREE RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF DANGEROUS
HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 107 DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
MAINLY OVER THE FLORIDA COUNTIES.
- PATCHY MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES BEING MOST HEAVILY FAVORED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS RAIN CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE DAY.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST IN RESPONSE TO
A BROAD TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. PWATS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE 2-2.3 INCH RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY
SUNDAY. AS TROUGHING ENVELOPES THE SOUTHERN STATES AND THE DEEP
LAYER HIGH PUSHES FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY HIGH FOR MID SEPTEMBER. GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS EACH MORNING.
MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN DOING SO, RIDGING STRENGTHENS IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US INTO MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. IN RESPONSE, SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH DRIER AIR INCREASING IN
THE 700-300MB LAYER AND PWATS FALLING TO A MORE SEASONAL AVERAGE 1.6-
1.8." LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN BACK NORTHEAST TO EAST BEGINNING
TUESDAY AS FRESH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GRADUALLY DECREASE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MERELY ISOLATED COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD WITH CONVECTION RELEGATED TO OUR
FLORIDA LOCATIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TEMPERED A COUPLE OF DEGREES,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE FLINT AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS AS SHOWERS AND
STORMS GET AN EARLY START IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA WITH CLOUDS MOVING
EAST THIS MORNING WITH RAIN NOT FAR BEHIND. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S HERE WHEREAS LOWER 90S FURTHER EAST AND ALONG I-75.
SATURDAY HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S WITH MID 90S IN SOME LOCATIONS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 100S. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF HITTING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA (HEAT INDEX 108F+) EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT CURRENT THINKING
HAS DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT JUST ENOUGH EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT FEW HOURS
IS OVER KVLD AND KABY ALONG WITH KECP AND KTLH. LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE FOLLOWING THE STORMS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOST OF IT DISSIPATES BY SUNSET. LOW CEILINGS ARE A CONCERN
OVERNIGHT WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
KDHN, KABY, AND KVLD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR KECP AND KDHN
BEFORE THEY MOSEY EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. RIDGING DEVELOPS
IN THE NORTHEAST GULF SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH
WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF CLOCKING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE RATCHETING UP WINDS TO MORE MODERATE
TO FRESH LEVELS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT TO MORNING HOURS, IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO
SURFACE LIGHTNING, AND WATERSPOUTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN IMPACTS.
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. LATER
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, TRANSPORT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY CLOCK
AROUND FROM THE WEST TO NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE GETS ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND HEAT INDICES INTO THE 100S.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EACH
DAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND IF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATE
OVER THE SAME AREA(S) SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, NEITHER WIDESPREAD FLOODING NOR RIVER
FLOODING ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 90 74 91 74 / 70 10 80 10
PANAMA CITY 87 77 88 77 / 80 50 70 30
DOTHAN 88 72 90 72 / 70 20 70 20
ALBANY 92 73 91 73 / 60 10 70 30
VALDOSTA 91 73 91 73 / 60 10 70 20
CROSS CITY 90 74 91 74 / 50 20 50 10
APALACHICOLA 86 77 87 77 / 70 30 40 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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