487
FXUS62 KTAE 271409
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1009 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
- HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND SUB-ADVISORY HEAT INDICES
BELOW 108 THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
- DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. ELEVATED RAIN
CHANCES ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN,
AND PERHAPS SMALL TO MEDIUM-SIZED HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK IN THE
FORM OF HOT AFTERNOONS, WARM NIGHTS, AND DIURNAL SEABREEZE-
DRIVEN CONVECTION. RETURNING HAZARDOUS HEAT PRODUCTS WILL BE IN
PLAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING, WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH MORE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR INLAND
AREAS THROUGH THE DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
LATE-NIGHT SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS A LARGE STORM COMPLEX
PUSHING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN AR ALONG A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE TOWARDS THE LA/MS COAST AND
WEAKEN AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE
COMPLEX LEAVES BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR SPAWNS A
MESOSCALE LOW OVER SOUTHERN AL/WESTERN FL PANHANDLE, THUS
PROVIDING US A RENEWED FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LOOSELY ORGANIZED.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE POSING STRONG-GUSTY WIND, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS. ISOLATED SEVERE
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. OVERALL CONVECTION DECREASES AFTER
SUNSET, BUT LOOKS TO LINGER NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS SE AL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S. THICK CLOUD COVER, HEIGHTENED RAIN CHANCES, AND UPPER-
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS KEEPS HEAT INDICES RELATIVELY IN CHECK - UPPER
90S TO LOW 100S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OR VORTICITY LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
EASTERN US TROUGH PROMPTS HIGH RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY.
CONVECTION FOCUSES MOSTLY OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING, THEN SPREADS
INLAND FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HRS. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR OCCASIONAL BANDS OF PRECIPITATION THAT COULD FOSTER A
LOCALIZED FLOODING RAIN THREAT. WET MICROBURSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
ONE MORE ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY AS
UPPER TROUGHING LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION. BY SUNDAY, THE TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHWARD, THUS ALLOWING THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD
BACK OVER US FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN CHANGE FOSTERS HOTTER
TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES (CONFINED MOSTLY
IN THE SEABREEZE ZONE). THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN
THE LOW 90S THIS WEEKEND TO LOW-MID 90S NEXT WEEK. PEAK HEAT
INDICES NEAR OR ABOVE 108 DEGREES MEANS THAT HEAT PRODUCTS WILL
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP THE LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED EARLY THIS MORNING,
MAINLY IN AND AROUND KECP ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS JUST SOUTHEAST
OF KTLH. OTHERWISE, A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR KDHN AND KVLD THIS MORNING, SO HAVE KEPT THE TEMPO
GROUPS FOR THAT. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT IN CASE THE
FOG/STRATUS DOESN'T DEVELOP.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE'S MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL
OF THE STORM TIMING, SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AS WELL.
ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND/OR FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT WILL
BE FOR SITES THAT EXPERIENCE RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST BREEZES PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY THANKS TO PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. THE MAIN MARINE THREATS ARE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, POTENTIAL WATERSPOUTS,
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM HEAVY RAIN. WINDS TURN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
THE MAIN FIRE CONCERNS ARE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY ISOLATED DAMAGING
GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY WETTING RAINS. THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES ARE TODAY AND TOMORROW. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS VIA OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE
SEABREEZE. TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THANKS TO DECENT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. POOR AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS ARE ALSO ON TAP
FOR PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
DAILY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
NUISANCE OR FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN, POOR-DRAINAGE, AND LOW-LYING
AREAS. WET WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY THANKS TO THE
PRESENCE OF A LINGERING FRONT AND ATTENDANT DISTURBANCES TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION. THERE IS A WPC MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY'S RISK
SHIFTS TO THE FL PANHANDLE AND NATURE COAST.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 91 74 89 73 / 50 20 70 40
PANAMA CITY 89 76 87 75 / 50 50 70 40
DOTHAN 90 72 88 72 / 60 40 80 30
ALBANY 92 74 90 73 / 50 40 70 40
VALDOSTA 91 73 90 73 / 40 30 60 30
CROSS CITY 90 74 90 73 / 60 40 50 20
APALACHICOLA 88 77 87 76 / 50 50 60 40
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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