325
FXUS62 KTAE 291008
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
608 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION. MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST, AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANCES RANGING
FROM 30-50% ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS TO
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS.
FOR TONIGHT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS THIS
WEEKEND'S SYSTEM IS SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
CONVECTIVE LULL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A SOMEWHAT
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPAWNS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN TO THE DEEP
SOUTH.
THE ENVIRONMENT STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THANKS TO ADEQUATE SHEAR, AMPLE LIFT/FORCING FOR ASCENT, AND SOME
INSTABILITY. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) IS IN PLACE NEARLY
AREAWIDE IN THE NEW SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK - VALID STARTING 12Z MONDAY.
ALL HAZARDS APPEAR POSSIBLE - DAMAGING WINDS/GUSTS, HAIL, A COUPLE
TORNADOES. ESTIMATED THUNDERSTORM ARRIVAL TIMING IS LATE MONDAY
MORNING OR MIDDAY MONDAY FOR OUR CENTRAL TIMEZONE COUNTIES, FOLLOWED
BY AN EASTWARD PUSH THROUGH THE FLINT RIVER VALLEY LATER THAT
AFTERNOON, THEN INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR DOWN TO THE EASTERN FL BIG
BEND IN THE EVENING.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WHILE
LOWS ONLY DROP TO THE MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING AFTER MONDAY'S STORM SYSTEM
DEPARTS THE REGION. INTERESTINGLY, THERE ARE SOME MODEL INDICATIONS
OF DIURNAL SEABREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH MID-WEEK, THOUGH RAIN
CHANCES ARE LOW. THE MAIN STORY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
NOTABLE WARMING TREND THANKS TO A STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE 90-DEGREE
MARK (WOULD BE THE FIRST OF THE SEASON, AND MUCH EARLIER THAN
NORMAL). OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WILL BE COMMON, WHICH IS WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL. THE RIDGE'S POSITION AND STRENGTH
SUGGESTS THAT WE REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN FREE AS ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION
LIKELY GETS SHUNTED TO OUR NW.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY FOR MOST AREAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KECP LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AND
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THERE TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE WEST TAMPA BUOY (42036) WAS REPORTING A SUSTAINED ESE WINDS NEAR
20 KTS, 4-FT SEAS, AND A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
WEST OF MEXICO BEACH UNTIL 8AM EDT/7AM CDT.
CWF SYNOPSIS: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF FOSTERS
CONTINUED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TODAY.
A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GOOD
TO HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON, SPREADING OVER
MORE OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA MONDAY WITH A LINE OF STRONG STORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. OUTSIDE
OF STORMS, DISPERSIONS WILL BE HIGH.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALIZED FLOODING APPEARS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE FROM THE FL/AL BORDER INTO THE
WIREGRASS REGION IN THE WPC DAY 4 OUTLOOK. OVERALL, THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. AUCILLA RIVER - LAMONT REMAINS IN
ACTION STAGE, BUT ITS LEVELS CONTINUE FALLING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 81 63 80 65 / 10 30 40 10
PANAMA CITY 77 66 77 67 / 50 40 30 10
DOTHAN 79 63 80 65 / 40 50 60 20
ALBANY 80 62 80 64 / 20 40 70 20
VALDOSTA 82 63 80 65 / 10 20 70 30
CROSS CITY 84 63 82 65 / 0 30 50 20
APALACHICOLA 73 66 73 67 / 30 30 30 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GMZ735.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ730-752-755-765-772-775.
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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