604
FXUS62 KTAE 100803
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
303 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 225 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
- FOG RETURNS TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS AS WARM
MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NE GULF. POCKETS
OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY. IF TRAVELING, SLOW DOWN AND GIVE
YOURSELF ENOUGH TIME. EXPECT DELAYS WITHIN AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
- WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND STORMS THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK, FAIRLY BENIGN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW WHEN A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS
FEATURE MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INDUCE A
COUPLE SHOWERS. MODELS ARE HONING IN ON THE NEXT MEANINGFUL FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT WITH SHORTWAVE AMPLITUDE, BUT TIMING AND SPEED SEEM TO
HAVE LOCKED INTO ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING AND EXITING BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN WRT THE LLJ BEING AROUND
40-50 KTS, SO WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IF ANY INSTABILITY MANAGES TO PUSH
INLAND, OR IF THIS WILL BE A HSLC EVENT. STAY TUNED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS FOR UPDATES.
EXPECT FOGGY MORNINGS THROUGH THURSDAY AS WARM MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER
THE COOL WATERS OF THE NE GULF. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY CAUSES FOG TO
START ALONG THE COASTLINE AND PUSH INLAND THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, PERSISTING INTO THE LATE MORNING. PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WILL
BE LIKELY, REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS. THUS, GIVE
YOURSELF AMPLE TIME TO GET TO YOUR DESTINATION IF TRAVELING AND
EXPECT DELAYS, ESPECIALLY WITHIN AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE FROM THE 0Z TAFS - MAINLY ON FOG TIMING AND
ADJUSTING THE LOWEST VSBYS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE/TRENDS FAVOR A SWATH
OF FOG/LOW STRATUS FROM DHN/ABY AND A SEPARATE BATCH INVOF OF TLH.
THE ECP/VLD TERMINALS ARE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS DHN/TLH WHERE TEMPO GROUPS ARE IN PLACE
IN THE 10-14Z TIME FRAME. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
AMENDMENTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING, THOUGH LINGERING
STRATUS IS EXPECTED AT ABY UNTIL ABOUT NOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 225 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK
BEFORE BECOMING MORE VARIABLE LATE-WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG,
ESPECIALLY FOR APALACHEE BAY, WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
LOW DISPERSIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST WITH FAIR TO
GOOD DISPERSIONS FORECAST INLAND TODAY. MINRH VALUES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT, ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THE APALACHICOLA
NATIONAL FOREST MAY SEE MINRHS DROP TO BETWEEN 30 TO 40 PERCENT.
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
BEFORE TURNING MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW (LESS THAN 30%) FOR WEDNESDAY,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN GEORGIA DISTRICTS.
DRIER AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH MINRH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25
TO 35 PERCENT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 225 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS INCREASED THE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND TO
AROUND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECASTS AREN'T ENOUGH TO
INDUCE FLOODING CONCERNS, FOR NOW, THEY MAY BE SLIGHTLY BENEFICIAL
FOR IMPROVING ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 74 54 76 54 / 0 10 20 0
PANAMA CITY 70 57 72 55 / 0 0 20 10
DOTHAN 75 58 76 51 / 0 10 20 10
ALBANY 74 57 76 49 / 0 20 30 10
VALDOSTA 75 53 76 51 / 0 10 20 10
CROSS CITY 74 47 73 53 / 0 0 10 10
APALACHICOLA 65 55 68 55 / 0 0 20 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ007>009-
108.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ121.
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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