194
FXUS62 KTAE 301046
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
646 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
- AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFFSHORE. THIS RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS SURGING
TO 2 TO 2.5 INCHES BY THIS WEEKEND AND REMAINING FAIRLY INTACT
THROUGHOUT MOST OF NEXT WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GET HUNG UP
ACROSS OUR GULF WATERS LEADING TO CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PWATS DRIVE WHAT'S LIKELY TO BE CONTINUOUS OVERRUNNING
PRECIP AS NORTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS MULTI-DAY
RAIN EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PILE DECENT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS OUR COASTAL COUNTIES. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER IS
FORECASTING 4 TO 7 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND AROUND 2
TO 4 INCHES ACROSS INLAND FL PANHANDLE AND SE ALABAMA. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL TO SEE
AROUND 7 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE, WE'LL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
PRECIP CHANCES REALLY RAMP UP THIS WEEKEND. GENERALLY, DAYTIME HIGHS
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH A DIP THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE 80S WITH A FURTHER DIP BY NEXT TUESDAY INTO THE 70S. OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGHOUT MOST
OF THE PERIOD, IT'S NOT UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING THAT LOWS DIP INTO THE
MID 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED THIS TAF CYCLE. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS
INVOF VLD WHERE A BRIEF WINDOW OF REDUCED VSBYS FROM PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 13Z. WINDS INCREASE UP TO 10 KTS OUT OF THE
SE LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTN WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. THE POTENTIAL, ALBEIT LOW, REMAINS FOR
SHOWERS TO ENCROACH ON ECP/TLH/VLD, SO HAVE VCSH HOLDS. A T-STORM
OR TWO STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR ECP BETWEEN 18Z & 0Z.
-TSRA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A RETURN TO CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS
APPEARS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO AROUND 20% TODAY, MAINLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE, BEFORE INCREASING FURTHER THURSDAY AND SUBSTANTIALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
GENERALLY, LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS. A WETTER
PATTERN LOOKS TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE, AREAS NEAR THE COAST COULD SEE
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 91 71 91 72 / 0 0 10 0
PANAMA CITY 89 72 89 74 / 20 10 50 30
DOTHAN 92 68 92 69 / 0 0 30 10
ALBANY 92 69 92 70 / 0 0 10 0
VALDOSTA 91 69 92 71 / 10 0 10 0
CROSS CITY 90 69 91 71 / 40 10 40 10
APALACHICOLA 84 75 85 76 / 40 20 30 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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