141
FXUS62 KTAE 172328
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
728 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
- A WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE OCCURS LATE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MAKE SURE TO COVER SENSITIVE PLANTS AND BRING IN PETS.
- CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOSTERS ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AS LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS) ALLOW A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
PATTERN TO SETUP. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOW 30S THIS EVENING. WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS, SOME LOCATIONS
COULD EVEN SEE FROST IN THE MORE SHELTERED REGIONS.
FOR WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PREVALENT OVER THE AREA BUT IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS, A WEAK
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN THEIR
WEEK'S LONG WARM UP WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
LONG TERM WILL SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AND QUIET WEATHER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS DRIER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND WEAK EAST AND NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE PREVAIL INTO
THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND
BECOME MORE WESTERLY WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS COULD BEGIN TO BRING BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE AREA AND BY NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY WE COULD SEE ABOUT
10 TO 15% POPS RETURN TO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS AND SHIFT
NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, LEADING TO
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
LIGHTER NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL STILL
REMAIN PREVALENT. WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ONE LAST DAY OF WIDESPREAD
CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS RHS DROP INTO THE 22-28%
RANGE. THE LOWEST VALUES WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE BETTER LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITY BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS INTO NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE IMPROVING HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, NO WETTING RAINS
ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
RADAR-ESTIMATED RAINFALL FROM MONDAY SHOWED SOME WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75 INCHES WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER VALLEY AND
SCATTERED TOTALS OF 1.5-2.5 INCHES TO THE EAST WITH A LOCALIZED
MAXIMA OF 3-4.5 INCHES IN JEFFERSON COUNTY, FL. THESE BENEFICIAL
RAINS ARE VERY HELPFUL FOR THE CURRENT DROUGHT IN PLACE, BUT WE'RE
STILL A LONG WAY FROM RELIEF OF D2-D3 CONDITIONS. NO RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS ACROSS THE AREA AND
HYDROLOGY CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITES:
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 30 62 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 35 61 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 31 60 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 31 59 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 30 61 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 29 65 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 36 62 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/
WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ114.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ120>131-
142>148-155>161.
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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