465
FXUS62 KTAE 262321
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
721 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE A CONCERN AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.
SOME FOG MAY BECOME DENSE.
- RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD HEAT ON FRIDAY WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST
90-DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR FOR ISOLATED LOCATIONS OCCURING ABOUT
A MONTH EARLIER THAN NORMAL.
- A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TEMPORARILY HALT THE WARMING TREND,
BUT ELEVATE FIRE CONCERNS (PRIMARY THREAT), AND PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND (SECONDARY THREAT).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, AND NO MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT (DRY) COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. TEMPS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH SOME ISOLATED SPOTS POSSIBLY
HITTING 90 DEGREES. SHOULD SPOTS HIT 90 TOMORROW THEY WOULD BE
JOINING THE HANDFUL OF TIMES THE 90 DEGREE MARK WAS HIT IN THE MONTH
OF MARCH, WHEN CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE 90 DEGREE MARK IS TYPICALLY HIT
IN APRIL-EARLY MAY.
ON SATURDAY OUR NEXT FRONTAL FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH NO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LEADING TO NEAR NIL PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP. IT
IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND WINDY ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE CONCERNS AS PERSISTENT LONG TERM DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO BAKE THE GROUND. WHEN
COMBINED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY ANY FIRES COULD
POTENTIALLY SPREAD QUICKLY, THUS BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES AND/OR RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL BE CONSIDERED WITH
FOLLOWING FORECAST CYCLES.
BEHIND THE FRONT WE'LL SEE MUCH OF THE SAME, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WE'LL SEE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGIN TO SLIDE OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC POSSIBLY
PROVIDING ENOUGH RETURN FLOW TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POP CHANCES.
ALTHOUGH CURRENT PRECIP CHANCES DON'T LOOK GREAT FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK, AROUND 10-25%, HOPEFULLY THESE CHANCES BEGIN TO NUDGE
UP OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MOST
SITES FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL SEA FOG PREVAIL
THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS OVERTAKE THE
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY BREEZES LINGER THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY, THEN BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
A TEMPORARY WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
FROM PREVAILING ONSHORE WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. EXPECT
UNSEASONABLY WARM TO HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BOTTOMS OUT AROUND 35-40% AWAY FROM THE COAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS OVERSPREAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT FROM THE NORTH. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL USHER BREEZY NORTH TO NE WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN ADDITION TO TANKING DEW POINTS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE
BREEZINESS FOSTERS WIDESPREAD HIGH DISPERSIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATTER IS ESPECIALLY NOTABLE GIVEN
THE ONGOING SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT FROM MINIMAL PRECEDING
RAINFALL, ANTECEDENT WARMTH, AND OBSERVED WILDFIRES EARLIER THIS
WEEK. BURNING IS DISCOURAGED. HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH RHS LOOK TO BEGIN RECOVERING AS EASTERLY FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEVERE
(D2) TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE OR WORSEN.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE FOLLOWING
WEBSITES: WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 60 87 62 79 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 62 78 62 79 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 59 86 58 73 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 59 86 59 70 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 59 88 62 75 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 58 86 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 61 76 63 77 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...MERRIFIELD
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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