089
FXUS62 KTAE 191719
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
119 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE OF HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND HAVING A LOW CHANCE OF HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 95.
THE HEAT MAY AFFECT THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE, ESPECIALLY WITHOUT
COOLING/HYDRATION.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH COVERAGE INCREASING THIS
WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
THE REGION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MEANDERING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALOFT,
MID/UPPER RIDGE ARCS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF NORTHEAST TO OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE AN UPPER LOW IS SITUATED IN THE BAHAMAS.
FURTHER WEST, LONGWAVE TROUGHING EXTENDS THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IN BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE IS A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO WESTERN TEXAS. RIDGING
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEK DESPITE THE UPPER LOW TRYING
TO MAKE IT TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST THEN RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN AS
THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE CENTRAL CONUS
TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE EAST BUT IS ESSENTIALLY BLOCKED BY THE UPPER
RIDGE WITH SHORTWAVES RIDING WITHIN THE LONGWAVE FLOW OVER THE RIDGE
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STALLS IN
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA THURSDAY THEN PUSHES NORTH FRIDAY AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATES THIS WEEKEND.
AROUND OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, PWATS ARE AROUND 1.2-1.3 INCHES TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED 850-700MB MOISTURE AND STRONGER DRIER AIR
ALOFT FROM 700-500MB. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
(20-40%) EACH AFTERNOON, LESS CLOUD COVER, AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S AND PUSHING MID 90S IN
SOME LOCATIONS WHICH WILL SET HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S AND CLOSE TO 100F. PWATS BEGIN A GRADUAL INCREASE THURSDAY
THOUGH CONVECTION APPEARS LIMITED TO THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD WITH NOT AS MUCH DRY MID LEVEL AIR AS IN MID WEEK. PWATS
INCREASE TO 1.7+ INCHES WHICH, ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY, SHOULD INCREASE SEABREEZE AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION EACH DAY. RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE TO 40-60% HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE ADDED RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WON'T BE AS HOT WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. HOWEVER, WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
STILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO
TERMINALS IS VERY LOW. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR MVFR TO BRIEFLY
IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ACROSS GA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD PRODUCING LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AND ONE TO THREE FOOT
SEAS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK, THOUGH A FEW
POCKETS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL RANGE 5500-7000 FEET AND TRANSPORT WINDS OF 10 MPH.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA KEEPING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 40% EACH DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AS WELL AS FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES. CHANCES FOR RAIN GRADUALLY INCREASES EACH DAY AND
ESPECIALLY INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, BETTER CHANCES WILL RESIDE BEGINNING THIS
WEEKEND. THESE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME NUISANCE FLOODING, MAINLY IN URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE
RAIN IS BENEFICIAL, SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS IS
NOT EXPECTED. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT IMPACTS, PLEASE
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 70 92 70 93 / 0 10 10 10
PANAMA CITY 71 87 70 87 / 0 20 0 0
DOTHAN 70 91 69 91 / 0 20 10 10
ALBANY 69 92 69 91 / 0 10 0 10
VALDOSTA 67 92 69 93 / 0 0 0 10
CROSS CITY 67 93 69 94 / 10 10 10 20
APALACHICOLA 74 85 71 85 / 0 10 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...MERRIFIELD
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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