861
FXUS62 KTAE 112325
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
725 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES, WILL BE
WEST OF AN ALBANY TO PORT ST. JOE LINE. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO
RECEIVE WARNINGS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY FOR OPEN
GULF WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA AS WELL AS ST. ANDREWS BAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME; A NORTHERN SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIERED STATES AND A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE/CLOSED
LOW MOVING THROUGH TEXAS. FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US IS SSW IN THE LOW LEVELS, TO WSW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE MIDWEST
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT MOVING EASTWARD.
THE BIG CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS SPC'S PLACEMENT OF THE MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) AND SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FURTHER EASTWARD INTO
OUR CWA. THE MARGINAL RISK EXTENDS OUT TO TIFTON TO APALACHICOLA
LINE WITH THE SLIGHT RISK JUST WEST OF ALBANY TO PORT ST JOE AND
AREAS WESTWARD.
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH MS/AL TONIGHT THEN
OFF THE EAST COAST LATER THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A STRONGER
TROUGH AND THUS HIGHER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND THUS THE
EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD
OF THE LINE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INSTABILITY OF 800-1200 J/KG
CAPE, AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KNOTS.
AREA POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 5-6 C/KM AND
LARGELY SSW TO WSW WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH SRH OF 100-150
M2/S2. GIVEN THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT AND THE LINEAR NATURE OF THE
SQUALL LINE AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA, STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TORNADOES. HAIL THREAT
IS LOW GIVEN THE LINEAR NATURE AND LESS THAN OPTIMUM LAPSE RATES.
THE SEVERE THREAT DECREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE
BY THE TIME THE LINE REACHES THESE AREAS.
AS FAR AS TIMING, EARLIEST REASONABLE TIMEFRAME FOR THE LINE TO
REACH SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS
2-3 AM ET WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME OF 4-6AM ET. THE LINE
WILL CONTINUE MARCHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND EXIT
THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND IN THE AFTERNOON OR 1-2 PM ET.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BE RATHER BREEZY GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEADY
WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS, BUT EAST OF THE RIVERS,
THEY'LL RISE TO THE 70S BEFORE FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FRONT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
WINDS TURN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY
SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WON'T CHANGE MUCH FROM THURSDAY WITH READINGS
IN THE 70S. WITH SERLY FLOW RETURNING HEADING INTO SATURDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUMP BACK INTO THE 80S AS WELL AS LOW END RAIN CHANCES
AS MOISTURE REBOUNDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO
INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON TAP MONDAY.
BEHIND EARLY NEXT WEEK'S COLD FRONT, ANOTHER COLD SHOT WILL ARRIVE
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS, THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE (30-50%) ACROSS OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES OF
TEMPERATURES OF 36 OR LOWER WHICH, IF COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOISTURE, COULD POSE A THREAT OF A LATE SEASON FROST. CHANCES FOR A
FREEZE EITHER NIGHT IS LOW (30% OR LESS). THIS WOULD BE PARTICULARLY
IMPACTFUL TO AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WHO HAVE
BEGUN PLANTING EARLY. KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A STRONG TO
OCCASIONALLY SEVERE SQUALL LINE SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE LINE, EXPECT GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NON-
THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR BOTH AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE AND
BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE EMERALD COAST TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FORGOTTEN AND NATURE COAST. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS, WATERSPOUTS,
AND CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
FOR WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA WITH POSSIBLY AN EASTWARD
EXTENSION INTO OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF SUWANEE RIVER THURSDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY WHILE CLOCKING TO THE EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOME WITH STRONG, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, STILL REMAINING BREEZY WITH
HIGH DISPERSIONS EXPECTED. TRANSPORT WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST
ON FRIDAY AROUND 10- 20 MPH. DISPERSIONS WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD
FRIDAY. RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS, DROPPING INTO THE
30S IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPEARS TO ARRIVE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
MOST LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.5 TO 1 INCH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE REASONABLE HIGH-END TOTALS ARE AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES.
ONLY LIGHT RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. REGARDLESS, THIS WOULDN'T BE ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT
RELIEF OR FOR FLOODING CONCERNS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT IMPACTS, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 64 74 46 74 / 30 80 10 0
PANAMA CITY 62 73 48 71 / 70 70 0 0
DOTHAN 56 68 41 69 / 80 70 0 0
ALBANY 58 71 40 69 / 60 80 0 0
VALDOSTA 64 75 43 74 / 20 90 10 0
CROSS CITY 62 79 48 80 / 10 80 10 10
APALACHICOLA 66 73 52 67 / 40 80 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ735.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
GMZ751-752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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