099
FXUS62 KTAE 312333
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
733 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
- RAIN CHANCES BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE SEABREEZE ZONE INTO MID WEEK
WITH HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A DRIER AND TEMPORARY COOLER
PATTERN FOLLOWS.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN PLACE AT THE WALTON, BAY, AND
GULF COUNTY BEACHES. BEACHGOERS ARE URGED TO HEED THE BEACH
FLAGS AND REMINDED THAT WATERS ARE CLOSED TO THE PUBLIC IF
DOUBLE RED FLAGS ARE FLYING.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
AN ACTIVE DAY ALREADY UNFOLDING, WITH THE MAIN CAUSE FOR CONCERN
BEING HIGH RAINFALL RATES LEADING TO POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS AS
PWAT VALUES COME IN AT AROUND 2.1 INCHES TODAY. THE MAJORITY OF
ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF I-10 OR POSSIBLY THE FLORIDA
BORDER AS A BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS ENCROACHING ON THE CWA FROM THE
NE. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR HELPING ANY STORMS THAT CAN GET A BIT MORE ORGANIZED
STRENGTHEN FURTHER. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY RATHER ROBUST
INTO THIS EVENING, DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH HEAT INDICIES IN THE MID
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THE NORTH SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
BE FAIRLY PROPORTIONAL TO EXPECTED STORM COVERAGE LIMITING DAYTIME
HIGHS OVER SE ALABAMA AND SW GEORGIA.
GOING FORWARD, TOMORROW'S STORM COVERAGE WILL ME MORE LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD.
A MCS DRIVEN BOUNDARY MY PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
FROM THE NW, POSSIBLY PROVIDING THE BUMP NEEDED TO ENHANCE TUESDAY'S
ACTIVITY. A NUMBER OF TIMING FACTORS AND FRONT POSITION WILL DICTATE
THE OVERALL COVERAGE THOUGH. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRYER
STARTING WEDNESDAY POST FRONTAL, ALONG WITH A NOTICEABLE DROP IN RH
VALUES, KEEPING APPARENT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, STAYING IN THE
LOW 90S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
INCREASING THEREAFTER AS A RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT FOR DHN, ABY, AND
VLD WITH A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR AT THOSE LOCATIONS BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING OR EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DAILY ONSHORE SEABREEZE. OCCASIONAL FRESH
ONSHORE BREEZES USHER CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
LEGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL BOATING CONCERNS ARE
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY,
A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE WATERS CAUSES WINDS TO
FRESHEN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL
EASTERLIES INTO THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES SHOULD KEEP FIRE
CONCERNS MINIMAL THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
GUSTY/ERRATIC WIND THREAT. WIDESPREAD WETTING TO SOAKING RAINS
ARE LIKELY TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER SW GA. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE THANKS TO PRESENCE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT AND FLOURISHING
CONVECTION. HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE CONFINED TO THE SEABREEZE ZONE
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, SO CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE HOT. NOTABLY
DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
TODAY WILL BE THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH
TO 1.5 INCHES (ISOLATED HIGHER). HOWEVER, LOCAL CAMS SUGGEST A
12-HR WORST CASE SCENARIO OF 3-4+ INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND ABOUT
2-5+ INCHES DURING THE EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF THE FL STATE LINE
(ISOLATED 6-8 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE). THE PROBABILITY OF 3
INCHES RANGE FROM ABOUT 25-50% - HIGHEST AROUND THE I-75 CORRIDOR
AND WIREGRASS REGION. THE 0Z HREF PAINTS HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR >3
INCHES IN SE AL, SW GA, AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND WITH
LOWER-END PROBS OF EXCEEDING 5 INCHES! THIS INFORMATION SUGGESTS
A FAIRLY HIGH CEILING FOR HEAVY RAIN. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
SHOWS THAT ABOUT 2-2.5 INCHES IN 1 HR AND 3-4 INCHES IN 3 HRS
WOULD BE NEEDED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.
RECENT RAINFALL HAS INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE, BUT LONG TERM
DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN. AS OF MAY 28TH HOWEVER, THE LATEST
MONITOR SHOWS IMPROVEMENT ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER BASIN
WHERE D2 SEVERE DROUGHT IS NOW IN PLACE FROM ROUGHLY FROM ALBANY,
GA TO JUST WEST OF KECP IN BAY COUNTY, FL. EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM
IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY IF THE AMOUNTS DESCRIBED ABOVE ARE REALIZED.
IN TERMS OF RIVERS, THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE CARYVILLE HAS CRESTED AND
SHOULD FALL BELOW ACTION STAGE LATER THIS MORNING WHILE BRUCE HAS
NOW REACHED ACTIONS STAGE.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITES:
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 72 91 73 91 / 50 40 10 60
PANAMA CITY 76 89 76 89 / 20 30 10 40
DOTHAN 71 90 71 88 / 70 20 20 40
ALBANY 70 88 71 87 / 70 10 20 50
VALDOSTA 70 89 71 89 / 80 30 20 60
CROSS CITY 75 91 75 93 / 40 50 20 60
APALACHICOLA 78 88 78 88 / 10 30 10 40
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HUMPHREYS
LONG TERM....HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
HYDROLOGY...HUMPHREYS
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