807
FXUS62 KTAE 251426
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
926 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 926 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
- FOG, LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES, IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
MORNINGS INTO THE WEEKEND. THOSE COMMUTING OR TRAVELING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OR IN THE MORNING SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
SLOW DOWNS OR DELAYS.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 10-15F ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT TUESDAY AS A FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON COULD ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT, BUT LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
LEAD TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 926 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
HAVE BEEN TRIMMING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY, AS FOG EITHER BURNS
OFF, OR THE RISING SUN SIMPLY REVEALS AND CLARIFIES WHERE THE FOG
WAS LOCATED THIS MORNING. THE REMANING PORTIONS OF THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL BE GOOD TO LET EXPIRE AT 10 AM ET, OR 9 AM CT. THE
MOST STUBBORN FOG PATCHES MAY END UP BEING THE ONE OVER COASTAL
GULF COUNTY, AND THE ONE FROM EUFAULA AL EAST ACROSS QUITMAN
COUNTY GA. MERRY CHRISTMAS!
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BE SHUNTED SOUTH INTO THE GULF
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
CONTROL THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ACROSS
THE AREA, THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL RETURN TO WEST AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND A POTENTIAL CONTINUATION
OF THE RECENT FOGGY PATTERN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, THE
ONE CAVEAT COULD BE THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WHICH COULD MAKE CONDITIONS MORE OVERCAST INSTEAD OF FOGGY
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS AND AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY
MILD AND IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AS THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THIS SHOULD DRIVE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH LATE ON MONDAY. ALONG WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON, HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE 50S NEXT TUESDAY,
BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME
RAIN IS POSSIBLE, AND ENSEMBLE AMOUNTS HAVE TICKED UP SOME SINCE
YESTERDAY, BUT WIDESPREAD DROUGHT-RELIEVING RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED
WITH FORECAST TOTALS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.50 INCHES AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 926 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
FOG HAS NOW DISSIPATED FROM ALL OF THE TERMINALS, LEAVING CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEAR-SURFACE AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOIST AND VERY STABLE, WITH DRY AIR ABOVE. SO
ONCE AGAIN, FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT, BECOMING DENSE AT TIMES
DURING THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENING, WILL NEED TO WATCH ECP FOR THE EARLIEST DETERIORATION OF
VISIBILITY, IF A PATCH OF SEA FOG CAN BE PUSHING ALONG THE COAST
DURING ANY AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST IN THE LATE EVENING TO
MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND BAYS.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. SOME RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS AS STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OR
NORTHEAST GULF WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WILL EXPERIENCE AFTERNOON LOW DISPERSIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE
DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE DISTRICTS WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD.
WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS WITH LOCALLY
DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH BELOW-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL TEMPER SOME FIRE CONCERNS, GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND LOW RHS COULD BRING SOME FIRE CONCERNS INTO THE FORECAST
NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHEAST US TO NORTHEAST GULF. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT PROSPECT FOR RAINFALL
IS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS A 90%
CHANCE THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS STAY BELOW 0.50 INCHES FOR THE EVENT.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 77 53 75 59 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 72 57 72 61 / 0 0 0 10
DOTHAN 76 53 74 59 / 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 76 51 75 57 / 0 0 0 10
VALDOSTA 78 53 76 56 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 78 53 76 55 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 70 57 69 60 / 0 0 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ007-009-010-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ065-066-
068.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ751-752.
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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