979
FXUS62 KTAE 110631
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
231 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
- FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. USE EXTREME CAUTION ON YOUR MORNING COMMUTE, AND
REMEMBER TO USE YOUR LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS AND LEAVE EXTRA SPACE
BETWEEN YOU AND THE VEHICLE AHEAD OF YOU.
- NEAR-RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY. REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED
AND CHECK THE BACKSEAT FOR ANY PEOPLE OR PETS BEFORE WALKING
AWAY.
- STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES,
WILL BE WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS. HAVE MULTIPLE
WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY FOR OPEN
GULF WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA AS WELL AS ST. ANDREWS BAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST, EXCEPT NEAR 90 EAST OF I-75 AND INTO THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE NEAR-RECORD WARMTH AND
DRY SOILS/FUELS COULD LEAD TO SOME FIRE CONCERNS. WHILE LOW HUMIDITY
WON'T BE A CONCERN, PLEASE BE CAREFUL WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING AND
LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL OFFICIALS.
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
GUIDANCE TODAY HAS COME IN STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE, AT LEAST TO START. IT THEN DAMPENS AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO
AND ACROSS OUR AREA. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THE MODELS ARE SEEING MORE
LIFT, AND POTENTIALLY A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS MEANS THAT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MAY
BE INCREASING. WHAT'S GOING IN FAVOR OF SEVERE WEATHER IS AMPLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR, AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY, AND A POSSIBLE FRONTAL LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST (WHICH MAY INCREASE THE LOW-LEVEL
JET). WHAT'S MAYBE HINDERING SOME OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
DECREASING LAPSE RATES AND A GRADUALLY WEAKENING SHORTWAVE,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FARTHER EAST. THIS ALL LEADS TO GUSTY TO
PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT WITH LOW CHANCE OF A
TORNADO OR TWO. SPC HAS OUTLINED AREAS WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND
FLINT RIVERS IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 1/5) WITH A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) CLIPPING COFFEE, GENEVA, AND WALTON
COUNTIES. HOWEVER, THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK DOES NOT HAVE SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WELL THE LINE
HOLDS TOGETHER GIVEN THE MITIGATING FACTORS.
REGARDING TIMING, 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT FASTER THAN THE
12Z GUIDANCE. SO WE'RE GENERALLY LOOKING AT THE STORMS ENTERING OUR
WESTERNMOST COUNTIES AROUND 4 AM CT (GIVE/TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO) AND
EXITING OUR SUWANNEE VALLEY COMMUNITIES AROUND 3 PM ET (GIVE/TAKE AN
HOUR OR TWO).
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BEFORE STORMS, FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN, MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS THE BIG BEND. SOME OF IT COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BE RATHER BREEZY AGAIN WITH GUSTS OF 20-
30 MPH EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
STEADY WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS, BUT WEST OF THE
RIVERS, THEY'LL RISE TO THE 70S BEFORE FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER WEATHER (BY
COMPARISON TO RECENT TEMPERATURES) IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S BY FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH IS CLOSER TO AVERAGE. FRIDAY
WILL BE A COMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S
WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. THE HIGH SCOOTS OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF. THUS, THIS COOL SPELL WILL BE
RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED. HIGHS RETURN TO THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH LOWS BACK IN THE 50S. WE MAY ALSO SEE A RETURN TO THE NIGHTLY
ROUNDS OF FOG.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY, BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY TO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS AHEAD OF THE LARGER TROUGH AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
RIGHT NOW, CONDITIONS DON'T APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
SETUP, BUT WE'LL KEEP WATCHING.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR MAKES ITS WAY BACK INTO
OUR AREA. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS, THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
(30-50%) ACROSS OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES OF TEMPERATURES OF
36 OR LOWER WHICH, IF COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOISTURE, COULD
POSE A THREAT OF A LATE SEASON FROST. CHANCES FOR A FREEZE EITHER
NIGHT IS LOW (30% OR LESS). THIS WOULD BE PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL TO
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WHO HAVE BEGUN
PLANTING EARLY. KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
LOW CEILINGS/VISIBILITY RESULT IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
IS AT KECP AND KTLH. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
KDHN AND KVLD, HOWEVER, VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR EARLY
THIS MORNING AT THESE TWO SITES. AT KABY, A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VIS IS EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE. IN GENERAL, WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND WE
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SITES HITTING OCCASIONAL 15 TO 20 KNOT GUSTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEA FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS APALACHEE BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS OFF THE EMERALD COAST.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT
FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA AS WELL AS ST.
ANDREWS BAY STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY
MOVE THROUGH OUR WATERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT, FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED, SUBSIDING INTO FRIDAY AS THEY
CLOCK AROUND OUT OF THE EAST. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES WEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND AREAS TODAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS. GIVEN THE NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES, BREEZY
WINDS, AND ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS, SOME ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
ARE POSSIBLE. RH VALUES WILL BE THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR,
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOME WITH STRONG,
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. WINDS SHIFT OUT
OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, STILL REMAINING BREEZY WITH
HIGH DISPERSIONS EXPECTED. TRANSPORT WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST ON
FRIDAY AROUND 10-20 MPH. DISPERSIONS WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD FRIDAY.
RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS, DROPPING INTO THE 30S IN
THE AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
MOST LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.5 TO 1 INCH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE REASONABLE HIGH-END TOTALS ARE AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES.
ONLY LIGHT RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. REGARDLESS, THIS WOULDN'T BE ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT
RELIEF OR FOR FLOODING CONCERNS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT IMPACTS, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 86 66 72 48 / 0 30 90 10
PANAMA CITY 80 64 72 50 / 0 70 80 10
DOTHAN 85 59 69 43 / 0 80 80 0
ALBANY 87 60 69 41 / 0 60 90 10
VALDOSTA 90 65 72 45 / 0 20 90 10
CROSS CITY 88 63 78 51 / 0 10 90 20
APALACHICOLA 76 66 74 53 / 0 30 90 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ012>015-112-114-115-326-426.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ735-751-752-755-772.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ735.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
GMZ751-752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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