549
FXUS62 KTAE 122310
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
710 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED INTO MID
NEXT WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE
EMERALD COAST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING WITH A MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE.
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 101-107F WITH
ISOLATED LOCATIONS, SOUTH OF I-10, POTENTIALLY REACHING 110F
BRIEFLY. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED
PLACES, WEAR LIGHT CLOTHING, AND KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT STRESS
AND ILLNESSES.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 90
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS THANKS TO AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGHS REBOUND BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 90S WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS WE RETURN TO A MORE SUMMER-
LIKE PATTERN OVER THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A CLOSER INSPECTION OF THINGS SHOWS AN H5 LOW GETTING LEFT BEHIND
AND DRIFTING SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST AROUND A SPRAWLING H5
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ITS PROXIMITY TO OUR AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL ALLOW
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWATS) ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2.0"
TO 2.2", OR NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-JULY, WHICH MEANS
VERY HEAVY RAIN, A QUICK INCH OR TWO IN A SHORT TIME, CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MATERIALIZE OVER LAND OR JUST OFFSHORE, ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, THAT CAN REALLY
PILE UP THE RAIN IN EXCESS OF 3"-5".
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL AREA ALONG THE EMERALD COAST HAS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF
4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
ANOTHER INTERESTING THING TO NOTE IS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS, PERHAPS A A WAKE
LOW, FORMING BEHIND MONDAY'S SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EMERALD COAST AND OUR WESTERN GULF WATERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A BIT OF DRYING BETWEEN 1000-850MB BEFORE SATURATING NEAR THE
SURFACE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEY THEN SHOW
A RAPIDLY DRYING SURFACE IN THE NEXT HOUR AND A NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE UP TO 850-800 MB, WHERE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE 40 TO 45 KNOTS. THAT'S ENOUGH TO BRING VERY GUSTY WINDS TO THE
SURFACE AFTER THE RAIN IS OVER. IT'S SOMETHING WE'LL MONITOR OVER
THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.
THE WEAK H5 LOW TRUDGES WEST AS THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS TAKES THE ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH
IT AND WE'RE LEFT WITH MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WITH MID 90S FOR
HIGHS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY
ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND ANY RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MOST
TAF SITES. ECP MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AROUND
06Z. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY, AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IF STORMS MOVE OVER TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
A BRIEF BOUT OF FRESH TO PERHAPS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR THE WATERS WEST OF
APALACHICOLA. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DAILY INCREASES TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE SEABREEZE.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MID WEEK THEN DECREASE
AFTERWARDS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
A WETTER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WITH TRANSPORT WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
A WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.5" TO 2.0" ARE FORECAST WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THOSE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
COULD ECLIPSE 5", ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EMERALD COAST WHERE THE
PROBABILITY OF THAT HAPPENING IS 30 TO 50%. RIVERINE FLOODING IS
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED, HOWEVER ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 87 72 89 / 20 80 50 60
PANAMA CITY 77 87 76 88 / 70 80 70 60
DOTHAN 73 85 70 87 / 50 80 40 70
ALBANY 73 86 71 87 / 40 80 40 70
VALDOSTA 74 88 71 89 / 10 80 50 60
CROSS CITY 76 90 74 91 / 50 80 70 60
APALACHICOLA 78 86 77 88 / 70 90 80 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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