375
FXUS62 KTAE 091035
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
635 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, OR LOW TO MIDDLE 90S, ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT OR DO
NOT HAVE ACCESS TO ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THE HEAT.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO OUR AREA BEACHES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED TO ENTER
THE SURF ON HIGH RISK DAYS. PLEASE HEED THE BEACH FLAGS AND
ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST AGAIN, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE FLINT AND APALACHICOLA
RIVERS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SHOULD TEMPER TEMPERATURES SOME THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MIDDLE 80S ACROSS OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES AND UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S FOR THOSE THAT SEE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE.
RAIN CHANCES TODAY ARE THANKS TO AN H5 SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD AND MEAN
RH IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER RUNNING BETWEEN 80 TO 90 PERCENT. IT'S
ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE STEERING FLOW FOR ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY WILL BE QUITE WEAK, SO THEY WON'T MOVE A WHOLE LOT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWATS) NEAR 2", OR ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, MEANS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS A
CONCERN WITHIN ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK'S FORECAST GREATLY DEPENDS ON THE LOCATION
OF AN H5 ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. IF IT'S SITUATED MORE
OVERHEAD, RAIN CHANCES WOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY. ON THE FLIP SIDE, IF
THE H5 RIDGE IS MORE WEST OF THE REGION, THAT'LL LEAVE JUST ENOUGH
OF A WEAKNESS OVERHEAD TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. IN BOTH SCENARIOS, TEMPERATURES WOULD RUN IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE DRIER
SCENARIO.
BEYOND THAT, ENSEMBLES SHOW A BROADER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. CLUSTER ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS THE FACT
THAT THE EURO ENSEMBLES ARE WETTER THAN THEIR GEFS COUNTERPARTS. SO
WE'LL KEEP ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NUDGE DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH
THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND, OR UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SE AL AND ADJACENT FL AND GA COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH IMPACTS, IF ANY, MOST LIKELY AT KDHN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA WILL PROVIDE GENTLE TO
MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ARE ALONG AND WEST OF THE FLINT/APALACHICOLA RIVERS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-10 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
TURNING MORE ONSHORE CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. DISPERSIONS WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD EACH AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH 1" TO 2" OF RAIN OCCURRING
VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER, THERE IS NOT A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS AS THESE AREAS MISSED OUT ON THE
MOST BENEFICIAL RECENT RAINS. THE DROUGHT FEATURES LONG TERM IMPACTS
THAT ARE AFFECTING RIVERS, LAKES, AND PONDS THAT ARE STILL BELOW
NORMAL DESPITE RECENT RAINS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT
IMPACTS, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 90 72 93 73 / 10 10 30 0
PANAMA CITY 89 73 90 75 / 30 10 10 0
DOTHAN 89 71 92 72 / 40 10 10 0
ALBANY 87 70 91 73 / 30 10 10 0
VALDOSTA 88 71 93 73 / 10 10 10 0
CROSS CITY 90 72 94 73 / 10 10 30 0
APALACHICOLA 89 75 87 75 / 20 0 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...MERRIFIELD
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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