997
FXUS62 KTAE 162321
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
721 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
- AREAS OF FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, AND FAR
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FOG WHILE DRIVING, THEN SLOW
DOWN, USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS, AND INCREASE BRAKING DISTANCE.
- FIRE CONCERNS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY, BECOMING CRITICAL ON
MONDAY IN THE WARM, DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL
PUSH FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
TRIED TO GET GOING NEAR THE PANHANDLE COAST TODAY, BUT WITH PWATS
LESS THAN 0.8", CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RAINLESS AREAWIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG ON FRIDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY IN THE FL
PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF SE AL, WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NECESSARY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
FOG IS AGAIN PROBABLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
WESTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. SATURDAY WILL THEN BE CLOSE TO A REPEAT OF
FRIDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS,
AND TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S.
A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS
INCREASE INTO THE 60S ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE COMES IN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, BUT A LACK OF ADEQUATE FORCING MEANS RAINFALL WILL BE
MINIMAL. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE ABOUT 30%, MOSTLY IN SE AL AND THE
INLAND FL PANHANDLE. A FEW DROPS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA,
BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE DROUGHT CONTINUES. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS THE FRONT PASSES AND PICK UP TO AROUND 15
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOWER, PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA, AND THE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE FL BIG BEND AND
SOUTH CENTRAL GA.
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY, DEW POINTS WILL PLUMMET
INTO THE 30S AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 20S ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN THEY'VE BEEN THIS WEEK, BUT STILL REACH
THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA, PRODUCING RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20%.
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND THE ONGOING DROUGHT, DANGEROUS FIRE
CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ALREADY START TO
RISE AGAIN ON TUESDAY, AND WITH WINDS WEAKENING AS WELL, FIRE
CONCERNS WILL RETREAT BACK TO MORE COMMON LEVELS OF LATE. HIGHS WILL
BE BACK INTO THE LOW 80S BY WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD, WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOG IS
A CONCERN AGAIN TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR KECP AND KTLH WHERE LIFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID-
MORNING FRIDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, SUPPORTING VARIABLE WINDS WITH
DOMINANT NEARSHORE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED
AT FIRST BY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. STRONG BREEZES WILL CLOCK
AROUND EASTERLY BY TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
A PERSISTENTLY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH PROMINENT AFTERNOON SEABREEZES SPREADING INLAND
FROM THE COAST. DENSE MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS OVER PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, AND FAR SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA DISTRICTS.
A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SHAPE UP ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IF
THE FRONT BRINGS ANY RAIN, IT WILL BE LIGHT AND COME UP SHORT OF A
QUARTER-INCH WETTING RAIN. STRONG, GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL FILL IN
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY, A VERY DRY AIR
MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE REGION, AS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
PEAK IN STRENGTH. ON MONDAY ESPECIALLY, ANY NEW FIRE STARTS WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD RAPIDLY IN THE DRY WIND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ANY RAIN WITH
THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BY A HYDROLOGICALLY INSIGNIFICANT
QUARTER-INCH OR LESS. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OR WORSEN.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE FOLLOWING
WEBSITES: WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 58 88 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 62 81 64 81 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 60 88 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 60 89 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 58 91 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 57 89 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 62 77 63 78 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page