837
FXUS62 KTAE 151337
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
937 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ALL
HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE. DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK: ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3
OF 5) INTRODUCED FOR SE AL INTO THE FLINT RIVER VALLEY, AND THE
FL PANHANDLE I-10 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) REMAINS
INTACT FOR MOST OF OUR REMAINING EASTERN COUNTIES.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND MAY OCCASIONALLY
ROTATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GULF
WATERS WEST OF THE NATURE COAST NEARSHORE LEGS.
- A LATE SEASON FROST/FREEZE REMAINS ON THE TABLE FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS WITH FREEZING TO SUB-FREEZING WIND CHILLS. A
FREEZE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY FOR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
HAVE UPPED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SE FLORIDA BIG BEND
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
SLUGS OF MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD WITHIN A WIDE WARM SECTOR
RAISES RAIN CHANCES TODAY. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED- TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
FOCUSING MAINLY FROM APALACHEE BAY INTO THE FL BIG BEND, SOUTH-
CENTRAL GA, AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. THE ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT
CONVECTION CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IT WOULD ALSO
NOT BE TERRIBLY SURPRISING IF WE OCCASIONALLY SEE ROTATING CELLS -
WITH OR WITHOUT LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A WARM/BREEZY
AFTERNOON UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND A HEALTHY CUMULUS FIELD. SUNDAY'S
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS RANGE FROM LOW 50S TO MID 60S FROM NW TO SE.
THERE WILL BE A SHARP HORIZONTAL MAX TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON
MONDAY - I.E., MID 50S AT DOTHAN & MID 70S IN CROSS CITY! SOME
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE ACHIEVED IN THE MORNING DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NOW ONTO (POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) SEVERE WEATHER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT- MONDAY...TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE MODELED
THERMODYNAMICS & KINEMATICS HAVE RISEN AHEAD OF A STRONG LATE-
SEASON COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO ITS POTENT PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH:
1) INGREDIENTS - THE 0Z HREF SHOWS A LARGE CORRIDOR OF 1000-2000
J/KG MUCAPE SURGING FROM THE GULF WELL INLAND TO SE AL/SW GA WHILE
A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET (UP TO 45 KTS AT 850 MB) OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40 & 45 KTS
WITH 0-1-KM SHEAR UP TO 30 KTS - EASILY SUPPORTING ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THE LATTER FAVORS A TORNADO THREAT. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM ALSO MEANS THAT LARGE HAIL IS ON
THE TABLE TOO, PARTICULARLY FOR ANY SUPERCELLS. 2) STORM MODE(S) -
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF
THE MAIN SQUALL LINE. THE QLCS WILL CARRY THE BIGGEST DAMAGING
WIND GUST THREAT WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF TORNADOES. SUPERCELLS WILL HARBOR THE GREATER TORNADO
CONCERNS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. 3) STORM ARRIVAL TIME
ESTIMATES, SUBJECT TO CHANGE - 4AM-7AM CDT FOR SE AL, FL
PANHANDLE; 7AM-10AM EDT FOR SW GA WEST OF I-75, CENTRAL FL BIG
BEND; 9AM-12PM EDT FOR I-75 CORRIDOR DOWN TO THE EAST FL BIG BEND.
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END IN THE AFTERNOON. 4) THREATS
- A FEW TORNADOES, A COUPLE OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG, I.E., EF-2 OR
GREATER. LOCATIONS WITHIN THE ENHANCED RISK AREA STAND THE
GREATEST CHANCE. SCATTERED SEVERE GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH MAINLY FROM
THE SQUALL LINE. LARGE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH OR GREATER.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
STRONG COLD-AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S ARE FORECAST (ISOLATED
UPPER 20S) WITH SUB-FREEZING WIND CHILLS NEARING LOCAL COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. TUESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
50S. RADIATIONAL COOLING PROMPTS A LIGHT FREEZE FOR A GOOD
MAJORITY OF THE INLAND TRI-STATE AREA IN ADDITION TO FROSTY
CONDITIONS. GIVEN THAT WE'RE NOW IN MID-MARCH, WHICH HAS BEEN
PRECEDED BY PROLONGED PERIODS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH, WE SHOULD BE
RESUMING THE ISSUANCES OF FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
PLANT GROWING SEASON. THEREFORE, A (NON-HARD) FREEZE WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON ONCE WE GET INTO THE 48-HR WINDOW
AND TRENDS STILL FAVOR SUCH CONDITIONS BEING MET. TEMPERATURES
THEN BEGIN MODERATING MID- WEEK WHILE NO RAIN IS ON THE HORIZON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS CIGS LOWER AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO AROUND 20 KTS AND UP TO
25-30 KTS TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT AS MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH CAUSING REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS AND LOWER
CIGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WATERS WEST OF THE NATURE
COAST NEARSHORE LEGS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPGRADE TO A
WARNING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IN ST ANDREWS BAY AND WATERS SE OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
CWF SYNOPSIS: MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES FRESHEN TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY ROBUST
MARITIME CONVECTION. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION BEGINNING
TONIGHT WITH QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST
EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. GALE CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN LEGS. FAVORABLE BOATING RETURNS MID-WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP TODAY WITH LOW-END
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN THANKS TO BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS.
FOR TOMORROW, A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES A SQUALL LINE THAT IS
LIKELY TO CONTAIN EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS LOOK TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
AND WILL POSE A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED. VERY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE THANKS TO AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO
GUSTY NW WINDS.
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS OVERTAKES THE TRI-STATE AREA
HEADING INTO MID-WEEK. NEAR TO CRITICALLY LOW RH IS FORECAST ON
TUESDAY, WHICH MAY FOSTER ELEVATED FIRE DANGER UNDER A SUSTAINED
NNW WIND AROUND 10 MPH.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE ONLY NOTABLE RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS ON MONDAY,
BUT FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE MOSTLY ABOUT A HALF INCH TO THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH (ISOLATED HIGHER) GIVEN THE EXPECTED FRONTAL
SYSTEM'S PROGRESSIVE NATURE. VALUES ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. WHILE
BENEFICIAL, THESE NUMBERS ARE NOT NEARLY HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE MUCH
OF A DENT IN OUR ONGOING SEVERE (D2) TO EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT. THE
CPC DAY 8-14 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK AS OF MARCH 13TH, PAINTS A
PESSIMISTIC PICTURE WITH WIDESPREAD 40-50% PROBABILITIES OF
(LEANING) BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION - VALID MARCH 22ND-28TH.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITES:
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. SPOTTERS SHOULD SAFELY REPORT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND/OR DAMAGE BY CALLING THE
OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 81 65 67 35 / 20 60 90 0
PANAMA CITY 78 62 65 37 / 20 80 90 0
DOTHAN 81 54 56 30 / 10 90 60 0
ALBANY 83 61 63 31 / 10 60 90 0
VALDOSTA 84 66 69 33 / 10 50 90 10
CROSS CITY 83 67 76 34 / 30 50 70 10
APALACHICOLA 75 68 68 38 / 30 60 90 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ735-
751-752-755-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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