959
FXUS62 KTAE 201844
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
144 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
- ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN TIMEZONE
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH VERY ISOLATED
PATCHY FROST IN NORMALLY COLD SPOTS AND LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG IN
PORTIONS OF THE FL BIG BEND, WESTERN FL PANHANDLE, AND SE AL.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK. WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE FORECAST CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS
DAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY SOME LOCATIONS FLIRT WITH 80
DEGREES.
- MARINE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION EARLY MONDAY MAINLY
WEST OF APALACHICOLA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
PREVAILING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP TONIGHT, BUT MAINLY EAST OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER. FORECAST LOWS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS WERE
WIDESPREAD UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S (ISOLATED MID 30S). A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS A BIT
WARMER ACROSS CENTRAL TIMEZONE COUNTIES, SO MINT'S ARE IN THE MID
40S.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE FL BIG BEND, WESTERN
FL PANHANDLE, AND SE AL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. CANNOT RULE
OUT VERY LOCALIZED PATCHY FROST IN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES CAN
GET TO THE MID 30S CLOSE TO SUNRISE.
AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT GETS CLOSER INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TOMORROW, A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY GET SQUEEZED OUT OVER
THE WIREGRASS REGION AMIDST OTHERWISE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHILE DEW POINTS
REBOUND INTO THE 40S & 50S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 141 PM EST SAT DEC
20 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS DEFINE MUCH OF CHRISTMAS WEEK AFTER
MONDAY THANKS TO AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT ANCHORS
ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S WILL BE MOST
COMMON, WHICH IS WELL ABOVE-NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER. AVERAGE
HIGHSIN TALLAHASSEE ARE AROUND 65 DEGREES.
IF YOU'RE DREAMING OF A WARM CHRISTMAS, THEN YOU'RE IN LUCK!
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY FORECAST HIGHS SOAR INTO THE UPPER
70S. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH 80 DEGREES! THE CULPRIT
IS MODELED 500-MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING DAILY RECORD TERRITORY, PER
SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR KTLH AT 586-590 DM. RECORD HIGHS IN
THE LOW 80S ARE IN PLAY IF THE RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF MORE
EASTWARD, SO FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.
LOW TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM THE 40S & 50S MONDAY-TUESDAY TO
WIDESPREAD 50S THEREAFTER. THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN ON THE HORIZON
IS LIKELY TO BE DAILY FOG POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE-NIGHT AND
EARLY- MORNING HRS, BUT IT IS TOO FAR IN TIME TO EXPLICITLY
FORECAST WITH GREAT CONFIDENCE AT THIS JUNCTURE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 141 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR REDUCED VSBYS AT ECP/DHN/TLH LATE IN
THE NIGHT, NEAR DAYBREAK. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AS A PREVAILING GROUP, INTRODUCED AS A TEMPO INSTEAD.
LIGHT WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHEAST BREEZES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW TURN
MODERATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN FRESHEN ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED BY A BACKDOOR FRONT. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION, ESPECIALLY WEST OF APALACHICOLA
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
CHRISTMAS WEEK SHOULD MAKE FOR FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS AS
LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES TAKE HOLD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE REGION FOSTERS A LIGHT NE WIND ON SUNDAY WITH LOW
AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS ALONG THE COAST AND IN SE AL. AN APPROACHING
BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY SQUEEZE A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WIREGRASS, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS FORECAST.
FOR MONDAY, THE BACKDOOR FRONT USHERS A REINFORCED SHOT OF COOL
AND DRY AIR, FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS.
THEREFORE, EXPECT LOWERING HUMIDITY (NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS IN
NORTHERN-TIER SW GA COUNTIES) AND GOOD TO FAIR AFTERNOON
DISPERSIONS.
DISPERSIONS TURN LOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TIMEZONE COUNTIES AS WINDS SLACKEN OUT OF THE EAST.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 141 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS OF
DECEMBER 18TH, DROUGHT HAS MODESTLY IMPROVED THANKS TO SOME
ADDITIONAL BENEFITING RAINFALL TWO DAYS AGO. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD
MODERATE (D1) TO SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT IS STILL IN PLACE WITH
EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT MOST FOCUSED OVER GASDSEN-LEON COUNTY, FL AND
PORTIONS OF IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT COUNTIES.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITES:
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 38 71 48 69 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 47 71 51 70 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 44 68 50 66 / 0 0 10 0
ALBANY 37 68 47 64 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 37 71 46 68 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 36 74 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 45 67 52 67 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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