144
FXUS62 KTAE 181803
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
203 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2025
NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2025
DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. HIGHS CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST, WHERE THEY'LL HANG
OUT CLOSER TO 80 THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE SEABREEZE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE A TAD MILDER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.
ALL OF THIS IS THANKS TO AN H5 RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD AND
STRENGTHENING TO 591DM. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA MOVES CLOSER TO BERMUDA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP WINDS INCREASE AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY, SO
A BREEZY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED FOR MOST, EVEN AWAY FROM THE COAST.
IT'S WORTH MENTIONING THAT SOME OF THE HOTTER GUIDANCE IS ATTEMPTING
TO GET AREAS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN GEORGIA NEAR 90 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS MAKES SENSE AS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE
EXPECTED WOULD MEAN AIR COMING STRAIGHT UP FROM THE SPINE OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE IS A LOW (LESS THAN 30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF
THIS HAPPENING, BUT IT IS WORTH MENTIONING.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2025
GENERALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
AND LONG TERM PERIOD WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING SETTING UP OVER
FLORIDA. A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AND MS RIVER VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BUT THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.
STILL, THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ALONG
WITH THIS FRONT TO THE NORTH COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
MOST DAYS WITH SOME LOW 90S CREEPING INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
IF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS FURTHER AND/OR THE RIDGE AXIS
BECOMES MORE ORIENTED OVER OUR AREA INSTEAD OF THE PENINSULA,
HIGHS COULD END UP A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
LOWS ARE FORECAST FAIRLY STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2025
THE AIR MASS IS DRY, AND WE WILL STRUGGLE THIS AFTERNOON AND GET
ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED PANCAKE-FLAT HIGH-BASED FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL
DEVELOPING NEAR ECP AND DHN LATE TONIGHT, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRING
A MOISTER AIR MASS IN FROM THE GULF. STARTING 1-2 HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE ON SATURDAY, LOW-LEVEL STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT INTO A SCT LAYER OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS BY LATE
MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2025
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. IN THIS FLOW REGIME,
SURGES OF WIND TYPICALLY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS, FOLLOWED BY LULLS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE WATERS EAST OF APALACHICOLA.
FROM CWF SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
BERMUDA WILL SUPPORT PREVAILING MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH BREEZES BECOMING FRESH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING SURGES. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NORTH OF
THE WATERS ON TUESDAY, BRINGING AN OVERALL DECREASE IN SOUTHEAST
BREEZES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2025
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER AS DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE THIS MORNING, ALLOWING MINRH TO INCREASE THE NEXT FEW
AFTERNOONS. A ROBUST SEABREEZE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND AND TURN
WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST
OVER THE GEORGIA AND ALABAMA DISTRICTS TODAY AND SATURDAY. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2025
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 61 86 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 62 81 64 80 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 58 88 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 60 88 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 61 90 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 59 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 65 76 66 76 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...REESE
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...MERRIFIELD
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