404
FXUS62 KTAE 101335
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
935 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 934 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- NEAR-RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS
EARLY SEASON HEAT, ENSURE YOU
- RECURRING ROUNDS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. USE CAUTION ON YOUR MORNING COMMUTES SHOULD
YOU ENCOUNTER DENSE FOG.
- LOW (LESS THAN 30%) CHANCE OF 1" OR MORE OF RAIN WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT'S FORECAST TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 934 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE
BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
ANOTHER NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WITH FOG MOVING IN. HOWEVER, SOME
CIRRUS FROM EARLIER STORMS OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND CURRENT
STORMS OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA HAVE DISRUPTED WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION
SO FAR. WE'LL CONTINUE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER OUR AREA TODAY. IT
WILL BE BORDERLINE HOT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S (A FEW POCKETS MAY GET TO 90). NO RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO NEAR 90. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
RECORD HIGHS BOTH DAYS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY.
RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:
TALLAHASSEE: 88/88
ALBANY: 89/89
APALACHICOLA: 81/80
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRENGTH OF THE
STORMS WILL DEPEND MUCH ON HOW THE SHORTWAVE AT THE TAIL-END OF THE
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE. A STRONGER, MORE-DEFINED, SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
WILL LEAD TO A GREATER POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER AND MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION DUE TO BETTER FORCING. HOWEVER, THAT'S
CURRENTLY ABOUT 40 PERCENT OF THE GUIDANCE ACCORDING TO CLUSTER
ANALYSIS. THE OTHER 60 PERCENT SHOW THAT THE SHORTWAVE ISN'T AS
DEFINED, WHICH MEANS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE LESS FORCING FOR STORMS
AND THE STORMS MAY NOT BE AS ORGANIZED. GIVEN THIS GUIDANCE SPLIT,
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY IS RATHER LOW.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND IT WILL
BE LESS HUMID. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BLAST OF COLDER AIR APPEARS ON THE HORIZON AT THE TAIL-END OF THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
IFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS ECP, DHN, AND TLH AND REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS. IFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AT ABY AND VLD CLOSER TO
SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS TLH, ECP, AND DHN AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO
LOWER CEILINGS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANY
RESTRICTIONS PRESENT WILL LIFT BY 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 221 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SEA FOG CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY WITH A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TURN OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS. CHANCES FOR GALES ARE NOW
VERY LOW (10% OR LESS). WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND BECOME GENTLE
TO MODERATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 221 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS OF 5-10 MPH TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-
20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DISPERSIONS
WILL BE GOOD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH
STRONGER WINDS WEDNESDAY, DISPERSIONS WILL BE HIGH ACROSS INLAND
AREAS AND GOOD ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED. SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS. THERE IS ABOUT A 60-80 PERCENT CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN WITH
THOSE STORMS. WINDS SHARPLY TURN OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 221 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
MOST LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES WITH
THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. THE REASONABLE HIGH-END TOTALS ARE AROUND 1 TO
1.5 INCHES. NBM HAS PROBABILITIES OF 1 INCH OR MORE AT 30-50
PERCENT, WHILE THE LREF (A COMPOSITE OF GEFS, GEPS, AND EPS) HAS
THOSE PROBABILITIES AT 10-20 PERCENT. LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LREF
AT THIS TIME, BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE MAY GIVE US A BETTER IDEA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. REGARDLESS, THIS WOULDN'T BE ENOUGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT RELIEF OR FOR FLOODING CONCERNS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT IMPACTS, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 87 61 87 64 / 0 0 0 20
PANAMA CITY 80 64 80 65 / 0 0 0 50
DOTHAN 86 62 86 62 / 0 0 0 70
ALBANY 87 62 88 63 / 0 0 0 40
VALDOSTA 89 61 90 63 / 0 0 0 10
CROSS CITY 89 60 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 75 63 77 66 / 0 0 0 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ730-735-751-752-755-765-775.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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