355  
FXUS62 KTAE 242355  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
755 PM EDT WED APR 24 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST DURING  
THE EVENING UPDATE.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [739 PM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT EXTENSIVE  
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND  
60.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]
 
 
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT  
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINS TO OUR  
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS A THREAT FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER. SPC UPDATED THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AND HAS  
HIGHLIGHTED OUR FLORIDA PANHANDLE COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK AND  
OUR SE AL, ALONG WITH MOST OUR SW GA AND BIG BEND COUNTIES IN A  
MARGINAL RISK.  
 
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ECAM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME  
FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COMING  
TOGETHER. DEEP LAYER (0-6 KM) SHEAR VALUES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT  
AROUND 50 KTS ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.5-7 C/KM. MLCAPE  
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG ALONG WITH SURFACE  
TO 1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2. THIS  
SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS OR STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS IN LINE SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER  
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW  
TORNADOES.  
 
ALL CONVECTION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON  
FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE  
LOWER TO MID 80S AND LOWS WILL BE AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE IN  
OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE DEEP LAYER RIDGING RETURNS THROUGH THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED AND  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.  
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY] VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL  
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST  
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD  
FRONT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SOME DURING THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND POSSIBLY SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO  
ELEVATE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.  
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LOWER OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. FOG IS  
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS  
BROAD CREST IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT 19 FEET. THE RIVER SHOULD  
GRADUALLY RECEDE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR  
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS  
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE, GENERALLY KEEPING RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 59 84 65 85 59 / 0 0 80 70 0  
PANAMA CITY 63 76 67 81 62 / 0 10 80 40 0  
DOTHAN 60 81 64 82 57 / 0 20 80 30 0  
ALBANY 60 84 66 83 58 / 0 0 80 60 0  
VALDOSTA 60 86 65 84 59 / 0 0 60 80 0  
CROSS CITY 60 85 65 83 61 / 0 0 30 80 0  
APALACHICOLA 63 76 68 80 63 / 0 0 80 60 0  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...MCD  
NEAR TERM...BARRY  
SHORT TERM...BARRY  
LONG TERM...BARRY  
AVIATION...DVD  
MARINE...BARRY  
FIRE WEATHER...MCD  
HYDROLOGY...NGUYEN  
 
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