630  
FXUS62 KTAE 071403  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
1003 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
   
..NEW UPDATE
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE THIS MORNING. AN ACTIVE START  
OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS SENT  
ANVIL CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS OUR PANHANDLE COUNTIES THIS MORNING.  
WHILE THIS COULD DELAY THE START OF STORMS THERE FOR A FEW HOURS,  
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL REDEVELOP AS THE SUNSHINE BEGINS TO  
WARM CONDITIONS UP SO HAVE LEFT THE RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE ACROSS  
THESE AREAS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM THROUGH LONG TERM
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
FAIRLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN  
ATLANTIC WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY ROUTINE AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WEATHER  
THROUGHOUT THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL WEST TO  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO  
MOISTEN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE SEA BREEZE AND ITS ASSOCIATED  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND WITH  
EACH PASSING DAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A  
COUPLE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CONUS, FROM  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THESE SUBTLE  
PERTURBATIONS COULD ACT AS ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT, LEADING  
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER INLAND, PRIMARILY ACROSS  
SE ALABAMA AND SW GEORGIA. RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE  
REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT  
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
A LITTLE MORE MOISTENING OF THE AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO A  
INCREASED AND MORE TYPICAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION, SO  
ALL TERMINALS WILL HAVE SOME MENTION OF THUNDER. ALREADY, THERE IS  
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING, WHICH IS AN  
EARLY SIGNAL OF POTENTIAL ON LAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEABREEZE  
WILL ALSO PENETRATE A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND, AND WEAK SOUTHWEST  
FLOW WILL FAVOR TLH MOST OF ALL FOR CONVECTION, WHERE CONFIDENCE  
IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR A TEMPO GROUP. THE STORMS THEMSELVES WILL BE  
SHORT- LIVED AND PULSY, GIVEN NEITHER LARGE SCALE FORCING NOR  
ORGANIZING WIND SHEAR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE  
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST  
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS, MAXIMIZING NEAR THE COAST DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS WITH THE DAILY SEA BREEZE. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST COMMON DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY  
MORNING HOURS OVER THE WATERS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE  
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST  
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS, MAXIMIZING NEAR THE COAST DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS WITH THE DAILY SEA BREEZE. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST COMMON DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY  
MORNING HOURS OVER THE WATERS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY BEGINNING MONDAY AS THE  
REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION AND HIGH  
PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS  
WILL ALLOW INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE TRI-STATE REGION AND A  
RETURN TO MORE SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS. MEANING, HIGHS IN THE 90S EACH  
DAY, HEAT INDICES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 100S IN SPOTS, AND  
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH MID EVENING  
THUNDERSTORMS. DISPERSIONS AND TRANSPORT WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE OVER  
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WILL BE TYPICAL OF THE  
SUMMER WET SEASON, RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 92 74 93 75 / 70 10 60 20  
PANAMA CITY 90 78 91 78 / 60 10 40 20  
DOTHAN 94 74 94 74 / 50 10 40 10  
ALBANY 95 75 95 75 / 50 10 50 20  
VALDOSTA 95 74 95 75 / 60 10 60 30  
CROSS CITY 90 74 91 73 / 60 10 60 20  
APALACHICOLA 88 78 89 77 / 50 10 40 20  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...OLIVER  
SHORT TERM...OLIVER  
LONG TERM....OLIVER  
AVIATION...HANER  
MARINE...OLIVER  
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER  
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab FL Page
The Nexlab GA Page
The Nexlab AL Page Main Text Page