502
FXUS62 KTAE 021418
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1018 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER
INLAND AREAS. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES EXCEEDING 107F ON ONE OR MORE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
APALACHICOLA NATIONAL FOREST.
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
BE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND, WITH LOWER CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN AREAWIDE APPEAR TO BE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
THE FORECAST IS TRACKING WELL THIS MORNING COMPARED WITH OBSERVED
CONDITIONS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. SO NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE REGION. IN FACT, THIS RIDGE IS
NEAR RECORD BREAKING IN TERMS OF 500 MB HEIGHTS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR
AREA WITH A MOISTURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO MAINLY
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND, EASTERN PANHANDLE, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
GEORGIA WHERE THE HIGHER MOISTURE EXISTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
103-107F ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND APALACHICOLA
NATIONAL FOREST WITH 100-105F HEAT INDEX VALUES ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK BEFORE SLIDING WESTWARD FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE END RESULT WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AREAWIDE ARE LIKELY BE
TO BE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY FEATURES VERY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.3-2.5 INCHES, WHICH ARE WELL
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR SEPTEMBER AND APPROACHING DAILY
MAXIMA. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES ARE LIKELY WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY AND PERHAPS
NORTHERLY IN OUR AREA. WHEN THIS OCCURS, WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
SOUTHWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WITH CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
BE CLOSE TO THE 108F HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, MOST LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AT VLD THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT ECP, TLH, AND VLD WHERE PROB30S WERE
MAINTAINED. WINDS ENE TODAY AROUND 5-10 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT
AROUND 00Z. FOR TONIGHT, RENEWED IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS AT VLD
ARE A GOOD BET, AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ABY/TLH ALTHOUGH
A LOW PROBABILITY ATTM.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. SOME NOCTURNAL
EASTERLY WIND SURGES ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR
OUR WATERS EAST OF APALACHICOLA. NEARSHORE SEABREEZES WILL
INTERRUPT THE EASTERLY FLOW EACH AFTERNOON. A MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED STARTING
THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER OUR FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTH GEORGIA
DISTRICTS TODAY BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, WITH A
SEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, SOUTHWEST GEORGIA,
AND THE INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS WEEK
MAY LEAD TO SHORT-LIVED NUISANCE RUNOFF ISSUES BENEATH THE CORE
OF HEAVIER STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A HIGHER COVERAGE OF
RAIN OVER THE MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY WITH SOME
POTENTIAL CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 95 75 91 74 / 20 10 90 30
PANAMA CITY 94 77 89 76 / 20 10 70 50
DOTHAN 96 74 94 74 / 0 0 60 20
ALBANY 95 74 93 74 / 0 0 60 20
VALDOSTA 93 73 91 73 / 20 10 80 30
CROSS CITY 90 73 90 73 / 70 30 90 30
APALACHICOLA 90 77 86 78 / 20 50 70 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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