392
FXUS62 KTAE 201910
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
310 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES INTO THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. BEACHGOERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT LIFEGUARDS ON SURF
CONDITIONS AND DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF IF RED OR DOUBLE
RED FLAGS ARE FLYING.
- HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOST COMMONLY REACH THE 90 TO 95
DEGREE RANGE. MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED, AFFECTING THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, AND SOME
HEALTH SYSTEMS AND INDUSTRIES.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. COVERAGE WILL THEN INCREASE OVER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STRONGER STORMS.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH
DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HOT TEMPERATURES.
THE BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP SOUTHEASTERLY TO
OCCASIONALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, FOSTERING A STEADY
STREAM OF HOT, MOIST AIR OVERHEAD. A RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OFF TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH A BIT FURTHER EAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY LESS
RIDGING, AMPLE MOISTURE, AND INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY
INCREASE DAILY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONT OVER NORTH/CENTRAL AL AND GA MAY
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS NORTH OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER, THESE SHOULD NOT AFFECT US UNLESS THE FRONT MAKES
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THAN EXPECTED.
HOT AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS MAY PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
AND CREATE A MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK AT TIMES. WHILE NOT
NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, THESE CONDITIONS THIS EARLY IN THE
SEASON COULD STILL PRESENT A RISK FOR HEAT ILLNESS IN SENSITIVE
GROUPS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
SEABREEZE AFFECTS ECP/TLH/DHN THIS AFTN VIA SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
ISOLATED CONVECTION. HAVE PREVAILING VCTS AT THOSE SITES TO ACCT FOR
CURRENT RADAR & MODEL TRENDS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER IS AT
DHN WHERE A TEMPO GROUP IS IN PLACE FROM 21-01Z AS THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO SHOOT THE GAP BETWEEN ECP & TLH - NORTH TO NW MOTION. LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS OPENS THE DOOR FOR PATCHY FOG AND/LOW STRATUS AWAY
FROM THE ABY/VLD. BEST POTENTIAL FOR FLT RESTRICTIONS IS AT ECP
WHERE MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS OF 1-3 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. A FEW SPOTS OF
HIGH DISPERSION WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, BUT OTHERWISE THERE ARE
NO OTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
HEAVY DOWNPOURS BENEATH THE CORE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AND SHORT-LIVED NUISANCE
FLOODING IN URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, MAINLY FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES AND THE AIR MASS
MOISTENS FURTHER.
LARGER SCALE FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 71 92 71 91 / 0 20 0 20
PANAMA CITY 72 87 73 87 / 0 0 0 10
DOTHAN 69 90 68 90 / 20 10 10 30
ALBANY 69 92 70 91 / 0 20 10 30
VALDOSTA 70 93 70 93 / 10 10 10 30
CROSS CITY 70 92 72 94 / 20 20 0 20
APALACHICOLA 73 86 75 85 / 0 0 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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