449
FXUS62 KTAE 202309
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
709 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
- SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE OR WORSEN WITH NO
RAINFALL AND A WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
- HAZE AND SMOKE MAY PRESENT ISSUES FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE
RESPIRATORY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO PRESCRIBED
FIRES AND WILDFIRES. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAY
FEATURE THE POOREST AIR QUALITY.
- WARM AND FAIR WEATHER WILL MAKE BEACHES ATTRACTIVE. BE AWARE OF
WHAT BEACH FLAGS ARE FLYING AND WHAT THEY MEAN WITH RESPECT FOR
RIP CURRENTS IF VISITING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY,
BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. NO FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
BUT MAY START BECOMING A CONCERN OVER THE WEEKEND EACH NIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME, HAZE AND SMOKE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA DUE
TO NUMEROUS PRESCRIBED BURNS AND A COUPLE LARGER WILDFIRES OVER THE
LAST COUPLE DAYS. WHILE SMOKE IS NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST, THAT IS WHAT IS CAUSING OUR HAZY SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. SMOKE MAY SETTLE AT NIGHT, WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND DEGRADED AIR QUALITY IN SPOTS. FOR THOSE WHO
HAVE RESPIRATORY CONDITIONS, USE CAUTION IF YOU NEED TO BE OUTDOORS
WHEN SMOKE IS PRESENT.
ADDITIONALLY, WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH IF THE INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW LEADS TO AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH MONDAY. WITH SPRING BREAK IN FULL SWING AND NICE WEATHER,
PLEASE HEED THE BEACH FLAGS AND ADVICE FROM LIFEGUARDS WHEN VISITING
THE BEACH.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, WARMING TO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S AREAWIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WHICH WILL ERODE THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE A BIT AND SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL BE A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH NO RAIN ANTICIPATED. MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL
STILL BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (A FEW POCKETS
OF UPPER 80S). THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WITH JUST A WIND SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S TO THE NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER 80S SOUTH OF I-10. LOWS, HOWEVER, REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO NOSE
INTO THE AREA WITH MAYBE A COUPLE SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW (20% OR LESS). OTHERWISE, RIDGING
BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, AND
OUR TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND. HIGHS RETURN TO THE MID 80S FOR MID
TO LATE WEEK, AND LOWS STAY IN THE 50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE HINDERED
VSBYS FROM SMOKE FROM NEARBY FIRES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
GENTLE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. BREEZES BECOME
MORE MODERATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND REMAIN MODERATE, THEN BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WEST TO SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY, TURNING NORTHWESTERLY OVER AL AND GA ZONES MONDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
WHICH MAY LEAD TO SMOKE SETTLING OVERNIGHT. RH WILL BE ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS, THOUGH SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS
ON SATURDAY MAY GET CLOSE TO THE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. NO WETTING
RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY BECOME A CONCERN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. DROUGHT REMAINS
OUR ONLY HYDROLOGIC CONCERN. SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT IMPACTS,
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 48 83 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 56 75 61 76 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 52 82 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 50 82 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 49 83 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 45 80 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 55 73 61 73 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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