032
FXUS62 KTAE 161756
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
156 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2024
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TODAY'S FORECAST WERE REQUIRED. MUCH OF THE
FOG HAS LIFTED ALONG/EAST OF THE GA/AL BORDER WITH SITES AT THOSE
LOCATIONS SHOWING IMPROVED VISIBILITY. SOME PATCHY FOG LINGERS
FOR ANOTHER HALF OR SO. HIGH CLOUDS PIVOT NORTH OF I-10 TODAY AND
PAVE THE WAY FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. EXPECT SIMILAR DAYTIME
HIGHS AS YESTERDAY. AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE INDUCES A SOUTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT WHILE KEEPING THE COASTAL STRIP RELATIVELY COOLER
(UPPER 70S/LOW 80S).
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2024
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES,
DRY TEMPERATURES, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND BREEZY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOG POTENTIAL EXISTS ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING DUE TO CALM
WINDS AND MOIST CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR
FL PANHANDLE AND SE AL COUNTIES. FOG SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE AFTER
SUNRISE WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S INLAND WITH LOW 80S NEAR THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
SHORT AND LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2024
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN CANADA BY THURSDAY.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US EMANATING
FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MID LEVEL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW LATE WEEK WHILE A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SETS UP IN THE EASTERN GULF ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE AREA WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO
SEE ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
GLANCES BY TO THE NORTH. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, MID/HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM AND SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE FLOW
APPEAR PLENTIFUL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DESPITE THIS, DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 80S, WITH A FEW 90S IN THE
MIX FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM, AND THE ONE THAT
SEEMS TO BE GAINING CONSISTENCY AND CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS,
APPEARS TO MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME
RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BEHIND THE FRONT HEADING INTO THE
NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2024
PREVAILING VFR CONDS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WITH SOME UPPER CLOUDS
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WHILE FOG AIMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN AL PRIOR TO OR AROUND SUNRISE. CURRENT
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY JUST FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM DHN/ECP,
BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WINDS TURN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE TMRW MORNING AOB 10 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2024
OFFSHORE BUOYS WERE REPORTING ESE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH 1-2 FT
SEAS AND A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 3-5 SECONDS THIS MORNING.
FROM CWF SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS THIS WEEK. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WAVE HEIGHTS TO 2 TO 4
FEET WEST OF APALACHICOLA AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LOCAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP IN THE
EASTERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO CLOCK AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH WAVE HEIGHTS SLOWLY FALLING THROUGHOUT OUR GULF
WATERS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA APPEARS TO
BE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2024
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA VIA
SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE THE DRY PATTERN. ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS
AREAWIDE AND LOCALLY HIGHER SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS TODAY ACROSS
THE FL PANHANDLE AND SE AL WILL YIELD HIGH DISPERSIONS FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. TOMORROW, DISPERSIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
GOOD WITH ELEVATED SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS PERSISTING WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS. ON THURSDAY, THE OPPOSITE WILL BE
TRUE WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AND HIGHER
MIXING HEIGHTS, ONCE AGAIN YIELDING GOOD DISPERSIONS. MINRH WILL SEE
A GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TODAY SEEING VALUES IN
THE 30-40% RANGE BEFORE INCREASING TO 40-50% WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2024
THE PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ACCOMPANYING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM POSSIBLY LATE THIS WEEKEND. GENERALLY, LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR LEON COUNTY FOR THE AREAS OF
CAPITOLA, CHAIRES, AND BAUM OF NORTHEAST TALLAHASSEE. COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS HAZARDOUS STANDING WATER AND SEVERAL
ROADWAYS REMAIN CLOSED.
IN ADDITION TO THE APALACHICOLA, ST MARKS, WITHLACOOCHEE,
AUCILLA, AND OCHLOCKONEE RIVERS REMAINING IN FLOOD, THE SUWANEE
HAS NOW RISEN INTO FLOOD AT ROCK CREEK, LURAVILLE, AND BRANFORD.
EXPECT POSSIBLE RISES TO CONTINUE DOWN THE SUWANEE WITH
ADDITIONAL POINTS POSSIBLY REACHING FLOOD IN THE DAYS AHEAD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 60 84 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 63 79 65 80 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 61 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 61 85 63 86 / 0 10 0 0
VALDOSTA 61 86 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 59 86 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 65 76 65 77 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...IG3
NEAR TERM...WORSTER
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...SCHOLL/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...WORSTER
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page