096
FXUS62 KTAE 142301
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
701 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. THE CHANCES FOR TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 90 ARE MEDIUM TO
HIGH (30-70%), WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEXT WEEK. THE HEAT MAY
AFFECT THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE, ESPECIALLY WITHOUT
COOLING/HYDRATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
KEEPING OUR WEATHER WARM AND DRY. OUR DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR ONE MORE DAY WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO
WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA, MAKING IT FEEL MORE HUMID.
ADDITIONALLY, THE RETURN OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL UPTICK IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THESE WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US AND GULF THAT WILL
ACT AS A LID ON THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS, RAIN CHANCES AT MOST ARE
ONLY 20-30%. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO ACT TO HEAT UP TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK AND LOWS NEAR 70. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME MINOR TO
MODERATE HEAT CONCERNS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 100 NEXT
WEEK, WHICH WILL AFFECT THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND
ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO COOLING OR HYDRATION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES TONIGHT BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.
OVER THE WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST, GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL RESUME WITH SEAS GENERALLY
AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS, LEADING TO LOW DISPERSIONS AREA
WIDE. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO CRITICALLY LOW RHS ACROSS INLAND
PARTS OF THE FL BIG BEND FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20-
30% AREA WIDE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10-15 MPH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN MIXING
HEIGHTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH DISPERSIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL ALSO INCREASE BACK TO THE 40S OVER THE
WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS WITH NO THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING ON THE HORIZON. EXTREME
TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AS LONG-TERM
RAINFALL DEFICITS AND LOW STREAMFLOWS CONTINUE. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT IMPACTS, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 57 86 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 60 84 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 53 83 56 87 / 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 52 83 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 54 86 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 57 89 63 92 / 0 0 0 10
APALACHICOLA 62 82 64 82 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...MERRIFIELD
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page