302
FXUS62 KTAE 151715
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
115 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019
AVIATION
[THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY]
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN TSRA AT TLH AND VLD PRIOR TO 00Z,
AND AROUND 10Z IN BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AT VLD. WINDS MAINLY
AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION [1001 AM EDT]
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS VIA THE REMNANTS OF BARRY. THERE WILL BE
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING BUT WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER
SUNRISE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEABREEZE WITH MOST LOCALS REMAINING DRY. RAIN
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20-30%. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
EXPECTING MID 90S ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT
INDICES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OVER THE CENTURY MARK.
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL RAINFALL CHANCES. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR WEDNESDAY, MODELS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE OVER OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES SO POPS WILL BE TAPERED SLIGHT
(20%) TO CHANCE (30-50%) EAST. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DESPITE THE RIDGING ALOFT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND SO WILL DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
MARINE
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH
TYPICAL AFTERNOON ENHANCEMENTS IN WINDS AND CHOP NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ASIDE FROM HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA, HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RHS REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND 20
FOOT WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK.
HYDROLOGY
BELOW AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME RAIN CHANCES BY MID-WEEK. WIDESPREAD AVERAGE
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LOW, HOWEVER, TYPICAL SUMMER STORMS CARRY
WITH THEM THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK 1-2" OF RAIN ANY GIVEN DAY.
THE FLOODING THREAT REMAINS LOW.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 95 73 97 74 95 / 30 30 20 10 40
PANAMA CITY 90 76 91 77 90 / 10 10 20 10 20
DOTHAN 93 72 95 73 95 / 30 30 20 10 20
ALBANY 95 74 96 75 95 / 10 10 20 10 30
VALDOSTA 96 73 97 74 95 / 20 20 30 30 40
CROSS CITY 94 74 95 74 94 / 30 30 30 30 40
APALACHICOLA 90 75 91 77 91 / 10 10 20 10 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...SCHOLL
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN
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