460
FXUS62 KTAE 211403
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1003 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
- DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
- THE HEAT WAVE IS POISED TO BREAK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, AND NO MAJOR UPDATES
WERE MADE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
FOR TODAY, THE HEAT CONTINUES AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SLIDE
WEST. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE INCREASED FLOW AND MID-LEVEL
SUPPORT, THERE MAY BE MORE ORGANIZATION TO THE STORMS. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO A GREATER THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION, SOME HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. BEFORE THE STORMS, HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS HEAT INDICES OF 105-110.
THUS, A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA, ALABAMA,
AND SOUTHERN ROW OF GEORGIA COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. SOME
DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF OUR AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THAT WILL SHOVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
OUR FL AND GA COUNTIES. SOME STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 102-107. HOWEVER, SOME AREAS COULD
NEED A HEAT ADVISORY AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND APALACHICOLA NATIONAL FOREST, BUT THE HEAT WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE.
DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
THIS TROUGH. WHILE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S, THE HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH LOWER WITH THE HEAT INDEX
VALUES ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE QUITE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN INCREASING TO NORMAL
SUMMERTIME LEVELS BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE IS
FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION TODAY.
PROB30 GROUPS REMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. WHILE TEMPO GROUPS WERE CONSIDERED FOR KABY AND
KDHN BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE WASN'T QUITE
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAFS AT THIS JUNCTURE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF WATERSPOUTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY GENTLE TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS AROUND 1-2 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN MORE VARIABLE ON SUNDAY. SOME POCKETS OF
HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF US 82 OVER THE
WEEKEND WHERE MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE THE HIGHEST. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE THE HEAT CONTINUING WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
105-110 AS WELL AS THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS IN AND NEAR STORMS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND IF STORMS ARE SLOW-MOVING, THEN SOME
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE IN URBAN,
LOW-LYING, OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 94 74 92 73 / 50 40 60 10
PANAMA CITY 90 77 90 78 / 30 50 30 10
DOTHAN 94 73 94 72 / 70 60 20 0
ALBANY 96 73 94 72 / 60 60 20 0
VALDOSTA 95 73 93 72 / 50 50 70 10
CROSS CITY 92 74 90 74 / 40 30 70 50
APALACHICOLA 90 77 89 78 / 30 50 50 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
426.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ155>161.
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page