223
FXUS62 KTAE 210002
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
702 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS BEYOND 20
NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20 PERCENT) OF MINOR WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN AND ICE THIS WEEKEND ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE U.S. 82 CORRIDOR (EUFAULA TO ALBANY TO TIFTON). CHECK
BACK THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES BECOMES MORE
NARROW.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES, AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. WEDNESDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, WITH POCKETS OF FROST, REBOUND
TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S, WHICH IS CLOSER TO
AVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS SETTING UP TO OUR NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH IMPACTS WILL EXTEND INTO
OUR REGION, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WHICH
IS THE TIME FRAME OF CONCERN. THIS SETUP IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES WHILE
SLOWLY MODIFYING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH, AND A WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS OF GULF AND SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS MOVING NORTHWARD, LEADING TO
OVERRULING PRECIPITATION.
AS MENTIONED, THE QUESTION IS THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT AND TIMING OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION, AND DOES THIS IMPACT OUR AREA? AT THIS TIME,
THERE IS A A LOW CHANCE (20 PERCENT) OF MINOR WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN AND ICE THIS WEEKEND ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE U.S. 82 CORRIDOR (EUFAULA TO ALBANY TO TIFTON). THIS MAY
OCCUR AS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IF THE COLD AIR IS IN PLACE (SINCE
THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE) AND AS LATE AS MONDAY MORNING IF
THE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE (SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE COLD
AIR).
THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS STILL 5-6 DAYS OUT, AND
THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST, SUCH AS THE CORRIDOR
OF WINTRY WEATHER. THIS CORRIDOR COULD SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE AL/GA COUNTIES, SO STAY TUNED. DON'T ANCHOR ON ANY SPECIFIC
MODEL RUNS, ESPECIALLY SENSATIONAL ONES POSTED TO SOCIAL MEDIA.
KEEP UPDATED ON THE FORECAST DAILY THROUGH TRUSTED SOURCES OF
INFORMATION.
NWS-TALLAHASSEE WILL BE POSTING THIS INFORMATION VIA GRAPHICASTS
ON OUR WEBSITE, WEATHER.GOV/TAE, AND SOCIAL MEDIA (X AND FACEBOOK).
IN PARTICULAR, OUR DETERMINISTIC POINT AND CLICK FORECAST WILL
CHANGE, SO IT'S BEST TO FOCUS ON THE PROBABILISTIC MESSAGING WE'RE
POSTING ON THE AFOREMENTIONED PLATFORMS.
IN ADDITION, A VERY COLD AIR MASS IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE, LOW SHOWER CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
GRADUALLY ERODES WITH NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON BOTH DAYS WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE FL BIG BEND,
AND IF DRIER AIR PERSISTS ON FRIDAY, SHOWER CHANCES WOULD NEED
TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOME EASTERLY AT 5-7 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL LOCK IN
EASTERLY WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
(20-50 PERCENT) CHANCE A SHORT-FUSED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE GULF WATERS BEYOND
20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. LIGHTER EASTERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD PROMOTE TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WILL INCREASE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN WITH ANOTHER LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE
FROST WILL GREET THE RISING SUN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANGE WILL
START TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY, AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW CLOCKS AROUND TO A
MILDER EASTERLY DIRECTION. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THICKEN ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE SHADING CONTRIBUTING TO ONLY POOR AND
FAIR AFTERNOON DISPERSION. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO GET WARMER AND MORE HUMID, BUT POOR TO FAIR DISPERSION
IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 35 63 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 40 63 49 69 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 33 60 45 71 / 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 29 60 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 31 64 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 34 69 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 45 60 52 65 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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