271
FXUS62 KTAE 041915
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
315 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
BENEFICIAL RAIN WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION, BUT FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BELOW 1 INCH WILL OFFER NO DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT.
- LINGERING RAIN/SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK
BEFORE A DRYING TREND OCCURS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE AT ALL LOCAL
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD, AND HEED
THE ADVICE OF BEACH FLAGS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...]
THIS AFTERNOON'S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN
A COUPLE HRS AFTER SUNSET. QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS TONIGHT OUTSIDE
OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING ALONG/WEST OF THE ACF BASIN
TOMORROW MORNING. SOME OF THE FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE, SO
EXERCISE CAUTION DURING YOUR EASTER SUNDAY AM COMMUTE. WIDESPREAD
LOWS IN THE LOW 60S ARE FORECAST.
THE MAIN FOCUS TOMORROW IS THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT - PER 15Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS, EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND ATTENDANT TO A WELL-DEFINED PARENT LOW SWIRLING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG. SEVERE
WEATHER PROSPECTS ARE NOT THAT GREAT GIVEN MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR (20-25 KTS) AND FLEETING UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WILL HAVE TO MAKE UP FOR THESE LIMITING FACTORS, SO
FRONTAL TIMING IS KEY. THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE AT THE WIREGRASS REGION MID TO LATE MORNING, THEN SAGS INTO
THE FLINT RIVER VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
ARE ROUGHLY ALONG/NW OF AN ALBANY-MARIANNA-DEFUNIAK SPRING LINE
(~65-90%) WITH A DRASTIC DROP OFF ELSEWHERE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKIER THAN NORMAL GIVEN EXPECTED FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WE ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING AT A
SOLID GRADIENT WITH MAXT RANGING FROM LOW-MID 70S (W-NW) TO MID
80S (E-SE). LASTLY, BEACHGOERS ARE REMINDED TO BE AWARE OF WHAT
FLAGS ARE FLYING WITH RESPECT TO RIP CURRENT RISK.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SAT APR 4
2026
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DECREASES WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, SOME RE-
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE ALOFT FORCING A WAVE LOW PRESSURE TRAILING THE
FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AT ~35-45%. PATCHY FOG OVER APALACHEE BAY INTO
THE SE FL BIG BEND MAY PRECEDE THIS ACTIVITY MONDAY MORNING.
THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY SHIFTS SE AS THE FRONT AND
IT'S ATTENDANT WAVE'S FORWARD EASTWARD PROGRESS CONTINUES. LOW-END
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, BUT ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE COAST INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. THERE ARE SIGNALS OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS LOW-END POPS SPREAD A BIT
NORTHWARD COMPARED TO MONDAY-TUESDAY. A DRYING TREND THEN TAKES
PLACE FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S, THEN INCREASE TO
THE UPPER 70S-LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S WILL
BE COMMON STARTING TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST AL.
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA WITH A GENERAL MOVEMENT TO
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP INTO
SOUTHWEST GA THROUGH SUNSET. CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN AFTER
SUNSET. OVERNIGHT, AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST AL WHERE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL DROP TO LIFR GENERALLY FROM 08-14Z. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT THOUGH
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL BE DECREASING WITH TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
A PASSING FRONT SOME TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING CAUSES
WINDS TO VEER SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY. PATCHY SEA FOG IS
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL. WINDS THEN QUICKLY FRESHEN
OUT OF THE NORTH FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE, SO SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION WEST OF APALACHICOLA BY MONDAY MORNING. RAINY
WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MID WEEK FROM A WAVE LOW
PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE GULF. THE CHANCES FOR ADVISORY WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
THE MAIN FIRE CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS ARE HIGH AFTERNOON
DISPERSIONS ON SUNDAY (AHEAD OF A FRONT) AND TUESDAY. THE LATTER
IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF
THE NE. FOR TOMORROW, THE HIGHER DISPERSIONS VIA WEST TO SW
BREEZES FOCUS FROM APALACHICOLA NAT'L FOREST TOWARDS THE I-75
CORRIDOR BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INITIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONVECTION LOSES STEAM AFTER CROSSING THE
APALACHICOLA-FLINT RIVER BASIN. LOCATIONS TO THE WEST STAND THE
BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING A WETTING RAIN.
RAIN CHANCES STICK AROUND ON MONDAY DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THANKS TO A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE GULF. THIS SYSTEM
FORCES A SWATH OF SHOWERS THAT EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
FL STATE LINE. THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS SE
TOWARDS THE FORGOTTEN COAST AND SUWANNEE VALLEY TUESDAY. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING
TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. EAST TO NE WINDS PREVAIL MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL BE MUCH WELCOMED GIVEN OUR ONGOING
EXTREME (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. WE THEN DRY OUT
LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITES:
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 62 83 61 73 / 0 20 30 40
PANAMA CITY 65 75 59 72 / 0 20 50 40
DOTHAN 62 73 53 70 / 10 90 30 10
ALBANY 62 78 54 73 / 10 50 40 10
VALDOSTA 63 86 60 73 / 0 30 30 30
CROSS CITY 61 84 64 77 / 0 0 0 40
APALACHICOLA 65 74 62 70 / 0 0 30 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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