156  
FXUS62 KTAE 240546  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
1246 AM EST SAT FEB 24 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 918 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2024  
 
AS OF 0Z, A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM APALACHEE BAY THROUGH  
THE SE FL BIG BEND INTO SE GA. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE IN THE  
BOUNDARY'S WAKE WITH A NOTABLE DEW POINT SPREAD ACROSS THE SERVICE  
AREA THIS EVENING. AS SUCH, HOURLY T/TD'S WERE ADJUSTED TO  
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS. SKIES HAVE  
MOSTLY CLEARED AS WELL OUTSIDE OF A FEW PRE-FRONTAL PATCHES.  
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY DROP VIA COLD-AIR ADVECTION  
THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE MOST FOLKS WAKE UP TO READINGS IN THE  
40S.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
(THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2024  
 
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF THE US EAST COAST  
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING. AT THE SURFACE, NORTHWESTERLY  
FLOW WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF  
MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE  
FORECAST AREA SERVING TO LOWER OUR DEWPOINTS WHICH MAY RESULT IN  
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER DANGER (SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW). THIS  
PATTERN WILL ALSO CONTINUE SUPPRESSING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND  
CLOUDS AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TAKES CONTROL WITH PLEASANT AND  
SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW. FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE  
FROM THE LOW 40S IN OUR SE AL AND SW GA COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 40S IN  
OUR FL COUNTIES. FORECAST HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S  
AREAWIDE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2024  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO COOLER AND  
DRY WEATHER FOR THIS PERIOD. LOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY  
MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN SE AL AND SW  
GA WHILE FL COUNTIES DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. HIGHS  
WILL THEN WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN SW GA, THE MID 60S FOR  
SE AL, AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. SUNDAY NIGHTS TEMPERATURES  
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW  
40S IN SW GA AND THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND. AL WILL BE A TOUCH  
WARMER AND IN THE LOW 40S WHILE THE WESTERN BIG BEND AND  
PANHANDLE SPRAWL ACROSS THE 40S, WARMEST NEAR THE COAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2024  
 
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES BUT WE ADJUST TO A WARM AND MOISTENING  
TREND AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AND HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS. AROUND MID  
WEEK, THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FORMS AND WILL TRACK A COLD FRONT  
ACROSS THE US. TIMING SHOWS WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS  
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR  
THE EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
WIND SHEAR WILL BE AFFECTING ABY, DHN, AND VLD FOR THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS AT AROUND 2000 FT. OUTSIDE OF WIND SHEAR, VFR CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY  
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TERMINALS  
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL START TO CALM THROUGH THE EVENING  
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 918 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2024  
 
EVENING WEST TAMPA BUOY (42036) OBSERVATIONS WERE REPORTING  
SUSTAINED WNW WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS, AND NEAR  
7-FT SEAS WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS.  
 
A COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH APALACHEE BAY THIS EVENING AND  
WILL EXIT THOSE WATERS LATER TONIGHT WITH CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS  
PREVAILING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF WINDOW OF BORDERLINE  
ADVISORY WINDS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING  
ACROSS THE WESTERN LEGS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS  
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE  
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2024  
 
TOMORROW, TRANSPORT WINDS RANGING FROM 20-35MPH ON TOP OF  
MIXING HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 7000-8500FT WILL YIELD VERY HIGH  
DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FUEL MOISTURE STILL  
REMAINS OF LOW CONCERN GIVEN RECENT RAINS, THOUGH SURFACE WINDS OUT  
OF THE NORTHWEST FROM 10-15MPH COULD CERTAINLY DRY THEM OUT FASTER  
THAN EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE  
20-30% RANGE AREAWIDE. FOLLOW LOCAL BURN RULES AND REGULATIONS  
TOMORROW.  
 
ON SUNDAY, TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CALM DOWN TO AROUND 5-10MPH WITH  
MIXING HEIGHTS REACHING AROUND 3000FT RESULTING IN FAIR DISPERSIONS  
ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR, THOUGH TRANSPORT WINDS WILL  
CLOCK AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AND SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEED. FIRE  
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2024  
 
THE LOWER APALACHICOLA RIVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD THIS  
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL INTO ACTION STAGE OVER THE  
NEXT DAY OR SO. THE CHIPOLA AND WITHLACOOCHEE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY  
FALL OUT OF ACTION STAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO MEANINGFUL  
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THIS WEEK, WHICH MEANS NO ADDITIONAL  
RIVERINE FLOODING.  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 72 41 69 42 / 0 0 0 0  
PANAMA CITY 69 45 67 50 / 0 0 0 0  
DOTHAN 71 38 67 42 / 0 0 0 0  
ALBANY 70 35 64 39 / 0 0 0 0  
VALDOSTA 71 38 66 39 / 0 0 0 0  
CROSS CITY 69 40 67 38 / 0 0 0 0  
APALACHICOLA 67 47 63 51 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ EARLY THIS  
MORNING FOR FLZ108-112-114-115.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...WORSTER  
SHORT TERM...KR  
LONG TERM....KR  
AVIATION...BUNKER  
MARINE...KR  
FIRE WEATHER...WORSTER  
HYDROLOGY...KR  
 
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