238
FXUS62 KTAE 190138
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
938 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT
REMAINS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE SPECIFIC IMPACTS, ALTHOUGH HEAVY
RAIN APPEARS LIKELY IN FLORIDA. PLEASE CHECK FUTURE UPDATES AT
HURRICANES.GOV AS THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK IS ISSUED FOUR
TIMES A DAY AT 2 AM AND PM AND 8 AM AND PM.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, MAINLY IN OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AND SHOULD
CONTINUE ITS DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OR
TRACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORM COVERAGE HAS INITIALIZED AREA WIDE AS A
BOUNDARY OF COMPARATIVELY DRY AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. CURRENTLY
A HALF INCH DIFFERENCE WITH THIS BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT. THIS
WILL POTENTIALLY BE AN INHIBITOR, REINFORCING THE MODEL GUIDANCE OF
ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY BEING FOCUSED IN OUR WESTERN HALF. THAT SAID,
THIS COULD ALSO BE A POTENTIAL SOURCE OF INCREASED DCAPE ALONG OR
EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. WEST OF THE DRY AIR, PWATS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE
WILL MAKE FOR CONTINUED EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS, WITH TRAINING STORMS
CREATING SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
ADDITIONAL STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS MORNING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 91L
BEGIN TO MAKE THEIR WAY ONSHORE. THAT BRINGS US TO THE ELEPHANT IN
THE ROOM, THE UNCERTAINTY AROUND INVEST 91L. MODELS DO AN INHERENTLY
BAD JOB OF PREDICTING THESE KINDS OF THINGS BEFORE A CLOSED LOW HAS
ACTUALLY FORMED, SO THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BASED ON
IF AND WHERE THE CIRCULATION ACTUALLY FORMS. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED THINGS FORMING A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
WITH A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD-ISH MOVEMENT, AND A VERY LARGE
DIFFERENCES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. OUR BIGGEST IMPACTS AT THE MOMENT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ROUNDS OF HIGH RAIN RATE SHOWERS AND STORMS,
LEADING TO SOME POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS, AT LEAST FOR THE
IMMEDIATE FUTURE. A FLIGHT INTO 91L IS SCHEDULED FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON TO GET A MORE DETAILED PICTURE. CURRENTLY, NHC HAS A 30%
CHANCE FOR THIS BECOMING A TROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
EVEN IF 91L ISN'T NAMED WE CAN STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AND SOME POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS.
LOOKING PAST 91L, THE OVERALL PICTURE REMAINS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST AND TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH SOME SHORTWAVES
DRAGGING POTENTIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND FORCING MECHANISMS WITH
THEM THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ECP AND ABY
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE MAIN IMPACTS. OVERNIGHT, STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH. THERE IS A
PROB30 GROUP FOR THE DHN TERMINAL FOR A CHANCE OF PRE-DAWN
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH VFR CIGS.
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN, AFFECTING MAINLY OUR WESTERN TERMINALS
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL WITH
LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER OUR WATERS
THIS EVENING. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THIS IS DEPENDENT ON INVEST
91L DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD IN THE EASTERN GULF, WHICH
CURRENTLY HAS A 40% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS, AND
A 50% CHANCE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, FROM THE 8PM EDT UPDATE. AS
THE SYSTEM MEANDERS IN THE GULF, OUR WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE START OF THE WORKWEEK. THE
POSITION OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE WHAT IMPACTS, IF ANY, WE
COULD EXPECT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO PINWHEEL
AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF, REGARDLESS
OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWATS) IN EXCESS
OF 2" MEANS ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND COULD EASILY
PRODUCE A QUICK 1" TO 2" OF RAIN WITH EACH STORM. ALL TOLD, 1" TO 3"
OF RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 5" POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND. AS SUCH, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) MAINTAINS A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.
RIVERS FROM THE AUCILLA RIVER EASTWARD ARE RELATIVELY LOW, AND WITH
THE LATEST RAINFALL FORECAST, AMOUNTS ARE NOT SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO
RIVER FLOODING. FROM THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER BASIN WESTWARD, RIVERS
ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING, SHOULD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OCCUR.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 74 90 74 89 / 20 50 50 90
PANAMA CITY 74 91 75 90 / 70 50 40 90
DOTHAN 73 91 73 91 / 80 50 20 70
ALBANY 73 93 73 92 / 60 30 10 60
VALDOSTA 73 93 74 91 / 20 20 20 70
CROSS CITY 73 90 73 90 / 20 50 70 90
APALACHICOLA 76 87 77 87 / 50 60 80 90
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HUMPHREYS
LONG TERM....HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
HYDROLOGY...HUMPHREYS
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