573
FXUS62 KTAE 060636
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
236 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND WITH MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE GULF AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID-90S, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 70S.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SUB-TROPICAL HIGH (BERMUDA HIGH) WILL BE
EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER US, BRINGING IN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY FOR THE I-75 AND I-10
CORRIDORS AS THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THE PWATS VALUES
OVER THE BIG BEND REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUNOFF CONCERNS. POPS RANGE
FROM 40-60 PERCENT, WHEREAS AREAS TO THE WEST WILL HAVE MUCH LOWER
CHANCES (<30%) AS THE MOISTURE WILL NOT TRAVERSE THAT FAR WEST.
RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY IMPROVE FOR OUR CENTRAL TIME ZONE
COMMUNITIES, SOUTH OF I- 10, ON FRIDAY TO AROUND 30-50% WITH THE
ADDED INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE.
THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK AS THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND, SHIFTING OUR WINDS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS, HOWEVER,
DOES NOT CHANGE THE OUTLOOK AS WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.
THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH POPS RANGING
AROUND 30-50%.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW OF IMPACTS FOR THE TERMINALS AND HAVE KEPT
OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BETTER CHANCES ON STATION AT TLH/VLD/ABY. IN ADDITION, THE
EAST COAST SEABREEZE APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN THE EVENING WITH
POSSIBLE CONVECTION SO TIMING OF TSRA MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED INTO
THE MID/LATE EVENING DEPENDING ON TRENDS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
A SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR BERMUDA WILL BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, BRINGING US GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH LATE THIS WEEKEND, TURNING OUR
WINDS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, HEADING
INTO THIS WEEKEND, THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS,
LIGHTNING, AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
FAIR DISPERSIONS ACROSS MOST DISTRICTS, WITH POOR DISPERSIONS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FORGOTTEN COAST TODAY. SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORT
WINDS AT 5-10 MPH, BECOMING EASTERLY FOR FRIDAY. MIXING HEIGHTS
TODAY WILL REACH ABOVE 5000 FT OVER THE AL AND FL WIREGRASS
REGION, WITH THE REST OF OUR DISTRICTS RANGING BETWEEN 3500-5000
FEET. MORE WIDESPREAD 4000-5000 FT MIXING HEIGHTS IS FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH DISPERSIONS ALONG
THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
TODAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE I-10/I-75 CORRIDORS THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED NUISANCE
FLOODING BENEATH THE CORES OF HEAVIER STORMS. THERE ARE NO FLASH
OR RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 92 73 93 75 / 50 20 20 10
PANAMA CITY 91 75 91 75 / 20 20 50 0
DOTHAN 93 73 92 74 / 20 20 20 10
ALBANY 93 73 93 74 / 50 30 20 10
VALDOSTA 94 72 95 73 / 60 30 20 0
CROSS CITY 93 72 93 73 / 60 30 50 10
APALACHICOLA 88 77 88 77 / 30 60 50 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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