003
FXUS62 KTAE 031437
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
937 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2022
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 935 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2022
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO A PLEASANT SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2022
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIMP SOUTH THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA
TODAY AND SUNDAY, THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN GULF FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING WARM WEATHER THAT WILL BE
WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF RECORDS ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2022
HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE IS STILL IN PLACE FOR TODAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING PATCHY FOG APPROACHING DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID-MORNING. WE SHALL REMAIN MAINLY
DRY TODAY WITH POPS CAPPING AT AROUND 20% THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. FOG MAY DEVELOP
AGAIN HEADING INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE MIXED WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2022
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL LIMP SOUTH THROUGH THE SERVICE AREA ON
SUNDAY, REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY EVENING AND PROMPTLY
STALLING. ALONG ITS WAY SOUTH, A FEW WEAK LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A PANAMA CITY TO VALDOSTA LINE.
PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED WEAK FRONT AND A TURN TO MOISTENING LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND ON MONDAY WILL KEEP SKIES ON THE CLOUDIER
SIDE.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY, BRINGING A RAINY WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A DHN-
FZG LINE, AN AREA THAT COULD BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
RAINS TO THE NORTH.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2022
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD STRONGLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EASTERN GULF, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
PEAKING IN THE 5880-5900 METER RANGE ON WED NIGHT. THIS REPRESENTS
VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND IS NEAR THE MAX MOVING
AVERAGE FOR THIS WEEK OF THE YEAR IN THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY.
THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY STEER WEATHER SYSTEMS AWAY FROM US AND
SUPPRESS ANY RAINFALL. IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH MIXING INTO THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR ALOFT, THEN WE WOULD BE WITHIN STRIKING
DISTANCE OF RECORD HIGHS, AT LEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY TOO.
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL START TO SLOWLY FALL ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF STARTS TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN. HOWEVER,
IT WILL TAKE UNTIL BEYOND THE 7-DAY FORECAST TO SEE A RETURN OF
SEASONABLY COOL AIR FROM THE NORTH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2022
PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING OVER THE VLD TERMINAL AND COULD EXPAND
TO THE ABY AND TLH TERMINALS BEFORE CLEARING BY MID-MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS BUT, CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, SHIFTING THE WINDS WESTERLY. FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK FOR ALL
TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2022
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA THIS MORNING MOVE OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE GULF WATERS ON SUNDAY, THEN PROMPTLY
DISSIPATE. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES
WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND PERSIST ON TUESDAY, AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2022
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION
APPROACHING DAYBREAK AND SHOULD CLEAR BY MID-MORNING. FOG WILL
SIMILARLY DEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN WILL BE DISPERSION VALUES BELOW 20 AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON,
AS WELL AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL HAVE
MODERATE TO ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES APPROACHING 60 FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WIND IS THE MAIN FACTOR FOR THE LOW DISPERSIONS.
THERE WILL BE A NORTHERLY SHIFT IN THE WINDS ON SUNDAY, BUT WINDS
WILL STILL REMAIN LIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2022
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 78 61 74 57 / 0 10 20 10
PANAMA CITY 75 62 73 58 / 10 20 20 10
DOTHAN 75 59 70 53 / 20 20 10 10
ALBANY 75 58 70 53 / 10 20 10 10
VALDOSTA 78 59 73 55 / 0 20 20 10
CROSS CITY 80 56 78 58 / 0 0 10 10
APALACHICOLA 74 62 73 60 / 0 10 20 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ108-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...MONTGOMERY
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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