039
FXUS62 KTAE 090732
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
332 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
TODAY WILL START TO TRANSITION TO A STORMIER PATTERN AS AN UPPER LOW
DIGS SOUTHWARDS AND CUTS OFF WEST OF THE AREA. CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS WITH IT. BY THIS AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD START TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS SUPPORTIVE
OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S AND WARMEST ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE CLOSER
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, BRINGING WITH IT A LARGE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
IN SHORT, A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE ROUNDS. SO THE WEEKEND ISN'T LOOKING LIKE A COMPLETE
WASHOUT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WHEN IT DOES RAIN, IT WILL BE HEAVY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3" TO 6" FORECAST TO FALL BETWEEN
NOW AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8"+ POSSIBLE.
THE FIRST ROUND IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY IF ANY SUNSHINE IS ABLE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A THIRD ROUND IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, BUT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ONE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE EAST AND MAY NOT
OCCUR IN OUR AREA, SO WE SHALL SEE.
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THOSE ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAIN. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, BUT HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR
TWO ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY
DUE TO A WARM FRONT BEING DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE RAIN
FALLS. EVEN THEN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70.
DRIER WEATHER MOVES IN AS THE H5 LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE
REGION. THIS PUSHES TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND BACK NEAR 90 BY MID-WEEK WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
BRIEF PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING AROUND TLH, DHN, AND VLD.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WITHIN DOWNPOURS. FOR TONIGHT, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODERATE, TO PERHAPS FRESH, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
WITH CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS VERY MUCH POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW
STRONG THE LOW ENDS UP BEING. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGH SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
THERE ARE MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY
AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG AND EAST OF A PANAMA
CITY TO DOTHAN LINE FOR SUNDAY, WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO FALL.
THREE-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE (FFG) IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 4" TO
5.5", WHICH MAY BE ATTAINABLE WITHIN ANY OF THE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT ROLL THROUGH THE REGION. IT'S ALSO WORTH
MENTIONING THAT AS EACH ROUND OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH THAT THE FFG
WOULD COME DOWN. WHICH IS WHY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING ARE HIGHEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE A FLOOD
WATCH WAS CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
JUST A BIT TOO HIGH TO ISSUE ONE EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT SAID, IT
DOES APPEAR ONE IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
ON THE RIVERINE FRONT, MOST RIVERS START TO NEAR ACTION STAGE WITH
SOME OF THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. SO
WHILE RISES ON THE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED, RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED UNLESS RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEED EVEN THE HIGHEST
OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, OR MORE THAN 10-12".
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 85 67 80 66 / 60 70 100 80
PANAMA CITY 80 67 79 67 / 80 80 90 70
DOTHAN 84 65 79 64 / 60 80 90 70
ALBANY 87 66 78 64 / 40 70 90 80
VALDOSTA 87 67 82 66 / 50 50 90 70
CROSS CITY 87 67 85 65 / 60 40 90 70
APALACHICOLA 80 69 78 68 / 60 80 90 80
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ735.
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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