984
FXUS62 KTAE 140654
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
254 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREATS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
- CHANCES OF A LATE SEASON FROST/FREEZE HAVE INCREASED FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS WITH FREEZING TO SUB-FREEZING WIND CHILLS.
THE FORMER WILL BE PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL FOR AGRICULTURAL
INTERESTS WHO HAVE PLANTED EARLY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF
DRY AIR OVER THE GULF AND DEEP SOUTH WITH A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FL AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH-CENTRAL FL. THE LATTER ARE
FORCING SOME CLOUDINESS IN ADDITION TO EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS.
THIS ACTIVITY ATTEMPTS TO DRIFT NORTHWARD, BUT STRUGGLES TO
PROGRESSES MUCH FURTHER THAN OFFSHORE WATERS EAST OF MEXICO BEACH.
AN OVERALL STABLE AIRMASS FOSTERED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR EAST SHOULD KEEP US MOSTLY DRY AND TOASTY TODAY. ANY FOG THIS
MORNING SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND PATCHY, MAINLY EAST OF I-75.
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS - RELATIVELY CLOUDIER
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. UNSEASONABLY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE ON TAP FOR US - UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.
FOR TOMORROW, RAIN CHANCES MODESTLY INCREASE AS MOISTURE LIFTS
NORTHWARD. SHOWERS AIM TO FOCUS ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I- 75
CORRIDOR. A COUPLE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT ANOTHER WARM, AMIDST BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
HIGHS CLIMB TO THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IS THE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TIME
WINDOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF (POTENTIALLY) SEVERE WEATHER. WE STILL
EXPECT AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO FORCE A SURFACE CYCLONE
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THAT RAPIDLY DEEPENS WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN EXTENSIVE LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND (I.E., QLCS)
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS. THE FORECAST
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLE WIND SHEAR,
MODERATE INSTABILITY, AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AMIDST A FORMIDABLE
LOW-LEVEL JET FAVORS SEVERE CONVECTION CAPABLE OF SCATTERED
DAMAGING GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
AS OF ABOUT 2AM EDT, THE SPC KEEPS OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA
ESSENTIALLY SPLIT DOWN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 5) WEST OF THE ACF BASIN AND MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) TO THE
EAST IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK - VALID 12Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY. GENERAL
TIMING FOR A LIKELY SQUALL LINE ENTERING SE AL AND THE WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE ARE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT-EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THEN
CROSSING EAST OF THE FLINT RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND
EXITING INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THAT EVENING. SOME DISCRETE TO
SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE WHERE THE MARGINAL IS HIGHLIGHTED. AN
ANTICIPATED DAYTIME QLCS PASSAGE OVER THE EASTERN TIMEZONE
COUNTIES WITH THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH
THE TN/AL/GA BORDER SHOULD MAINTAIN THE SEVERE THREAT. THEREFORE,
THE NEW DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK FOR THOSE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT.
OUTSIDE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, GUSTY NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
SHOULD DEVELOP THANKS TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET AMIDST PRESSURE FALLS.
THE SEVERE THREAT ENDS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS A RAPIDLY COOLING & DRYING AIRMASS FILTERS IN VIA
BREEZY NW WINDS. MONDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND WITH A SHARP HORIZONTAL GRADIENT EXPECTED - COOLER
TO THE EAST, WARMER TO THE WEST. LOWS RANGE FROM LOW 50S TO MID
60S WHILE HIGHS RANGE FROM LOW 60S TO MID 70S. CHILLY CONDITIONS
FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN COLD-AIR ADVECTION DRIVES
LOWS INTO THE 30S WITH FREEZING TO SUB-FREEZING WIND CHILLS
NEARING LOCAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. RADIATIONAL COOLING
FOSTERS A SOLID SETUP FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THEREAFTER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO RAIN ON THE HORIZON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY
A FRESHENING HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY ROBUST MARITIME CONVECTION.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY ON MONDAY
MORNING. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY
IN THE WAKE OF STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.
GALE FORCE GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY
A FRESHENING HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY ROBUST MARITIME CONVECTION.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY ON MONDAY
MORNING. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY
IN THE WAKE OF STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.
GALE FORCE GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS WELL. FAVORABLE BOATING
RETURNS MID-WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THE ONLY NOTABLE RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS ON MONDAY,
BUT FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE MOSTLY ABOUT A HALF INCH TO THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH (ISOLATED HIGHER) GIVEN THE EXPECTED FRONTAL
SYSTEM'S PROGRESSIVE NATURE. VALUES ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. WHILE
BENEFICIAL, THESE NUMBERS ARE NOT NEARLY HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE MUCH
OF A DENT IN OUR ONGOING SEVERE (D2) TO EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT. THE
CPC DAY 8-14 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK AS OF MARCH 13TH, PAINTS A
PESSIMISTIC PICTURE WITH WIDESPREAD 40-60% PROBABILITIES OF
(LIKELY) BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION - VALID MARCH 21ST-27TH.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITES:
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 82 62 80 62 / 0 10 10 50
PANAMA CITY 76 63 76 58 / 0 10 10 60
DOTHAN 80 58 81 51 / 0 10 10 70
ALBANY 83 58 83 56 / 0 20 40 50
VALDOSTA 84 58 83 61 / 0 20 40 40
CROSS CITY 83 58 83 66 / 10 10 50 40
APALACHICOLA 74 62 75 63 / 10 10 30 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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