690
FXUS62 KTAE 211321
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
921 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 913 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- SEASONABLE SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEK AHEAD. BE READY TO HEAD INDOORS WHEN STORMS APPROACH.
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA
BEACHES TODAY. HEED THE ADVICE OF BEACH FLAGS AND LOCAL
OFFICIALS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 913 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
TWEAKED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, AS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
WESTERN-HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, WITH A FOCUS OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NEAR INLET
BEACH GUSTED TO 40 MPH EARLIER THIS MORNING, THUS HINTING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION,A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
THE 00Z 500 MB UPPER AIR PLOT FROM SATURDAY EVENING NICELY SHOWED
A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA BACK INTO CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CHATTAHOOCHEE THIS MORNING, THEN EXITING INTO EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA
BY THIS EVENING. THE ACCOMPANYING LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL SUPPORT
AN EARLY BLOSSOMING OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, PERHAPS NOT LONG AFTER
SUNRISE. STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THAT
TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HEIGHT RISES
AND A LITTLE SUBSIDENCE LATE TODAY. SO TODAY'S EARLY-DEVELOPING
STORMS WILL ALSO EXIT OR DISSIPATE ON THE EARLY SIDE THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN EAST-
WEST ORIENTED LOW-MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF. TO ITS NORTH, WE WILL BE
UNDER THE SOUTHERLY FRINGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. IN THE
WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY, STORMS COULD LOOSELY
ORGANIZE INTO GUSTY MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. THE WET MICROBURST
SEVERITY INDEX MAXES OUT FOR THE WEEK ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WHEN STEERING FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY THAN
WESTERLY, SO THOSE TWO DAYS STAND OUT AS HAVING GREATEST
CONVECTIVE GUST POTENTIAL. AFTER THE RECENT DAYS OF RAIN, THIS
WEEK'S PATTERN WILL SEEM LIKE A RETURN TO OUR MORE FAMILIAR RHYTHM
OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, WITH OFFSHORE OR COASTAL
CONVECTION IN THE MORNING HOURS.
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL RETREAT
BACK WELL TO THE NORTH. THE PORTION OF THE 500 MB SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS OVER FLORIDA WILL STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND MORE INTO
GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. THERE WILL CERTAINLY STILL BE SOME SEABREEZE
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON, GIVEN FAVORABLY MOIST PW VALUES.
HOWEVER, THE WARMING MID-LEVELS AND SOME SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL LESSEN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STORM MOTIONS WILL
ALSO SLOW- DOWN, AND STORM MODE WILL BECOME MORE SINGLE-CELL AND
PULSY IN NATURE. SHORTER-LIVED AND SLOWER-MOVING STORMS JUST DO
NOT COVER AS MUCH GROUND AS LONGER-LIVED AND FASTER-MOVING
STORMS, WHICH ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO A DOWNWARD TREND IN RAIN CHANCES
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK FOR DHN
AND ABY TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID-MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE THIS
MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE FOLLOWING SUNSET THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WESTERLY BREEZES ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST. ON THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE NORTHEAST
GULF, MAKING THE NEARSHORE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE THE DOMINANT WIND
REGIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND THIS WEEK WILL BE ERRATIC AND GUSTY
WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORMS. A SEASONABLY
HOT, MUGGY, AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, WITH THE
COASTAL SEABREEZE ENHANCEMENT EACH AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
TODAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL COVERAGE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. AS SUCH, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH SHORT-LIVED
NUISANCE RUNOFF ISSUES BENEATH THE CORE OF STRONGER STORMS.
ON THE RIVER SIDE, RUNOFF OF FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS ARE ROUTING
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH OUT RIVER SYSTEMS. THE BIGGEST RISES HAVE BEEN
IN THE PEA/CHOCTAWHATCHEE BASIN. THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST STILL
BRINGS THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AT BRUCE INTO MINOR FLOOD STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 87 74 92 76 / 80 10 40 0
PANAMA CITY 87 79 89 80 / 70 20 30 0
DOTHAN 85 73 91 75 / 90 20 20 10
ALBANY 86 73 91 75 / 70 20 30 20
VALDOSTA 88 73 92 75 / 70 20 30 0
CROSS CITY 92 76 93 77 / 40 10 10 0
APALACHICOLA 87 80 88 80 / 40 10 20 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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