956  
FXUS62 KTAE 231845  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
245 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH SUNDAY]
 
 
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT  
THE SURFACE CONTROLLING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THIS HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT, BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (BESIDES THIN  
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS), AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW COOL  
TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL FOR ONE MORE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR  
NORTHERN COUNTIES.  
 
FOR SUNDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TRANSLATING EAST,  
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT  
WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN  
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO  
THE MID 80S.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]
 
 
SURFACE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE INFLUENCE AS THE FLOW ALOFT  
BECOMES CYCLONIC WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE FIRST  
SHORTWAVE TRANSITS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH LIMITED MOIST  
RETURN, EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. THE NEXT  
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY AND DRAGS A  
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE  
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA ON MONDAY, WITH POPS  
LIMITED TO 30 PCT. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID ON MONDAY WITH  
DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT. DESPITE THIS, THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF  
FORCING AND THE VOLUME OF DRY AIR ALOFT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO  
FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG ON MONDAY MORNING, AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY  
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY. DAILY  
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
   
LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]
 
 
A DYNAMIC, FALL STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE  
WEATHER ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  
FIRST, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD  
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY. FOG IS LIKELY EARLY IN  
THE MORNING, WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.  
 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN A NORTHERN STREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE  
PLAINS PHASES WITH ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM (REMNANTS OF TC  
RICK IN THE E PAC) DURING MIDWEEK. THIS FEATURE CLOSES OFF AS  
IT APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DRAGS A STRONG COLD FRONT  
THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THU NIGHT. TIMING DIFFERENCES  
IN THE GUIDANCE HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.  
THE GFS/UKMET ARE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH  
MOVING THROUGH WED EVENING INTO WED NIGHT, WHILE THE EC/CANADIAN  
ARE SLOWER, DEPICTING WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. STORMS COULD  
STRUGGLE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH  
GREATER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. SPC INDICATES A 15 PCT AREA ON D5  
(WED) OVER SE AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION,  
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO BE LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF  
THE SYSTEM. BUT WITH ENSEMBLES GENERATING AROUND 50 KNOTS OF  
BULK SHEAR (0-6 KM), A HIGH SHEAR - LOW CAPE (HSLC) ENVIRONMENT  
WOULD COMPENSATE FOR THIS. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM  
OF A QLCS WITH A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT, BUT A NORTHWARD  
MOVING WARM FRONT ALSO BEARS WATCHING. OTHERWISE, THE ENVIRONMENT  
WOULD FAVOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY  
WELL IN ADVANCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY  
AND SATURDAY. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE BELOW A  
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION, SO WOULD EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS  
CLOUDS EACH DAY. IN ADDITION, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE  
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FOR SOME SHOWERS, BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ON  
BOTH DAYS OUTSIDE OF A 20 PCT POP SOUTH OF I-10 ON FRIDAY. WITH  
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WINDS COULD  
GUST TO AT LEAST 25 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS, AND THERE COULD BE A  
CHILL IN THE AIR AT TIMES GIVEN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND CLOUD  
COVER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY]  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL  
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WHEN IT COULD BRIEFLY  
REACH 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF  
A COLD FRONT, THEN BECOME NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT,  
AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE APPROACH OF A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER  
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL TURN WINDS SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH  
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS ON THURSDAY.  
WINDS ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY AT  
ADVISORY LEVELS, RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS, WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE  
HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 8 FEET JUST OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO  
THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SQUALL LINE  
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, AND THEN AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AS WINDS WILL BE LOW, AND LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY. ONLY CONCERNS WILL BE  
LOW DISPERSIONS ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
THE ONLY CONCERN ON THE HYDROLOGY FRONT IS THE MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM  
CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THE TIMING OF HEAVIER  
RAINFALL WILL BE FINE TUNED WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME IN LATER FORECASTS,  
WE ARE EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA,  
WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4  
INCHES. FORTUNATELY, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY, SO  
THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AS SUCH, WE DON'T EXPECT  
ANY RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR (WHILE FOLLOWING ALL LOCAL, STATE, AND CDC GUIDELINES) BY  
CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 83 58 85 66 87 / 0 0 10 0 30  
PANAMA CITY 84 62 84 68 84 / 0 0 10 20 20  
DOTHAN 80 54 84 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 30  
ALBANY 81 54 85 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 20  
VALDOSTA 82 56 85 65 87 / 0 0 10 10 30  
CROSS CITY 86 61 87 69 86 / 0 0 20 20 30  
APALACHICOLA 82 65 81 70 83 / 0 0 10 20 30  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...DOBBS  
SHORT TERM...LF  
LONG TERM...LF  
AVIATION...DOBBS  
MARINE...LF  
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS  
HYDROLOGY...LF  
 
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