093
FXUS62 KTAE 141831
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
231 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
- MODERATE TO LOCALLY DANGEROUS HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY REACHING
100-108 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA COUNTIES.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WELL AS HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAJOR INFLUENCER OF OUR WEATHER AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STRONG RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE 90S, AND BRING IN LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS WILL REDUCE
OUR ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, LIMITING PWATS TO AROUND 1.5" INLAND.
THE PRO/CON IN THIS SCENARIO IS THAT: CON - IT WILL STILL BE HOT.
PRO - IT WILL BE LESS HUMID. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE MINIMAL
OVER LAND, AS THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OVER THE GULF.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE APALACHIANS WILL
LEAD A "BACKDOOR COLD FRONT" FROM OUR NORTHEAST THAT WILL
INCREASE OUR WINDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN AS SOON AS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL UPPER LEVEL
THE RIDGE RETREATS WESTWARD DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING
NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND MID-90S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100-107
DEGREES. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S,
WITH MAX HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-105 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 70S WITH UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FORGOTTEN COAST WITH POPS RANGING ROUND 20-40% WITH
BETTER CHANCES IN THE SE BIG BEND. THERE'S LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM, EXCEPT
FOR LOCALIZED AREAS ALONG THE COAST, MAINLY IN THE SE BIG BEND ON
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF ON THURSDAY, PUSHING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK WESTWARD. THIS WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS
BACK TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE OUR PWATS BACK TO AROUND 2 INCHES
BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOT AS HOT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S HOWEVER, DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE 70S.
AFTERNOON POPS WILL RETURN TO 30-40%, WITH HIGHER CHANCES BY THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
THE MID-LEVEL AIR MASS IS DRIER TODAY, WHICH NEARLY ELIMINATES
THE POSSIBILITY OF AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF BKN ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH CLOUD BASES WILL
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET. LATE TONIGHT, LOW-LEVEL ENE-E
FLOW WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER. A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TUE MORNING WHEN THE NIGHTTIME INVERSION
BREAKS, GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, EASTERLY FLOW
AND THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS TYPICALLY FAVORS LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR MIST IN THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE AT VLD AND EAST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
BEGINNING TUESDAY, SURFACE RIDGING TAKING PLACE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS MOUNTAINS THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTH AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING OUR
MARINE WINDS. THIS WILL TURN OUR CURRENT LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TO A STRONGER EASTERLY WIND BEGINNING, AT EARLIEST, TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS REACHING THE THRESHOLD
NEEDED OF 20 KTS FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DURING THIS TIME. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KICK OUT THIS PATTERN, DELIVERING A MORE
MOIST AIRMASS WHICH WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE GULF INTO
THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE OUR WARM TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON
TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH AND INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH FOR
WEDNESDAY. AS DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN, MINRH VALUES WILL BE
IN THE MID-30S TO MID-40S% FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS SOMEWHAT
BREEZY CONDITIONS BUILD THIS WEEK, DISPERSION VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO HIGH FOR THE FLORIDA AND ALABAMA WIREGRASS REGIONS,
AND THE ANF NEAR AND ALONG I-10. HEALTHY DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH POCKETS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS
THROUGHOUT ALL THE DISTRICTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH
HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100-107 THROUGH TUESDAY. WHEN THE DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN, HEAT INDICES WILL BE LOWER, AS WELL AS WINDIER
CONDITIONS (PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED).
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
NO FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 95 73 90 / 0 10 0 0
PANAMA CITY 77 94 75 91 / 0 20 10 0
DOTHAN 73 94 72 90 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 74 95 71 91 / 0 10 0 0
VALDOSTA 73 93 71 91 / 0 10 0 0
CROSS CITY 74 92 74 90 / 10 50 0 0
APALACHICOLA 78 90 77 90 / 0 10 20 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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