593
FXUS62 KTAE 121336
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
936 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 935 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS
UPCOMING WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. NO CHANGES.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS WEEK,
AND SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY MIDWEEK. THE RIDGE WILL HOLD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY AND
WARM. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH FORECAST PWATS AROUND 1 INCH AND LESS; KEEPING OUR RAIN
CHANCES CLOSE TO ZERO; CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT OF
THE SEASON. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR TIMING AND MORE SPECIFICS;
BUT IT MAY BE THE FIRST SIGN THAT THE SEASONS ARE CHANGING.
LONG TERM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL, LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES.
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY, SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
UNTIL WE GET MORE THAN AN HOUR PAST SUNRISE. INDEED, TLH WAS
REPORTED BR AT 10Z. OTHERWISE, NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH, THEN CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BE TRANQUIL AT 1
TO 2 FEET. BY NEXT WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION,
WHICH WILL CLOCK WINDS AROUND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES OVER THE WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
FAIR TO MODERATE DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH MINRH VALUES
IN THE MID-30S TO MID-40S BOTH DAYS. BREEZY NORTHERLY TRANSPORT
WINDS TODAY WILL LESSEN BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING
TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR THE WEEK, WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 90
DEGREES FOR DISTRICTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
NO RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER, WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WE'VE HAD IN THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS, THERE ARE RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS ONGOING. A FLOOD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AT GENEVA, WHERE MINOR
FLOODING IS FORECAST TONIGHT TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
SEVERAL RIVERS ARE OBSERVED/FORECAST IN ACTION STAGE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 87 63 88 63 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 87 66 87 66 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 87 61 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 86 61 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 85 61 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 87 63 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 85 67 84 68 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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