287
FXUS62 KTAE 070617
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
117 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 117 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
- MARINE AND BEACH HAZARDS INCLUDE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM THE
OKALOOSA-WALTON COUNTY LINE TO THE SUWANEE RIVER OUT TO 60 NM
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE WALTON, BAY, AND GULF COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT AND ALL LEVELS OF
SWIMMERS.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON SATURDAY DUE TO EASIER FIRE STARTS,
MAINLY IN THE FL BIG BEND.
- GUSTY WINDS THE REST OF TODAY AND SATURDAY. FOR WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 20 MPH, THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH (70-100 PERCENT)
CHANCE TODAY AND A MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-80 PERCENT) CHANCE ON
SATURDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS TO OUTDOOR EVENTS.
SHORT AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENSURE A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID-30S TO MID-40S REBOUND TO SATURDAY
HIGHS IN THE MID-50S TO MID-60S, WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND THE NORMAL HIGHS. FOR OUTDOOR
EVENTS, BREEZY WINDS THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND SATURDAY:
THROUGH THIS EVENING, SOUTHWEST GUSTING AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
AND SATURDAY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH. GOOD RADIATIONAL (LONGWAVE) COOLING
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD SUNDAY MORNING LOWS NEAR THE
25TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S;
A HARD FREEZE (TEMPERATURES AOB 25F) IS NOT EXPECTED. HIGHS
SUNDAY REBOUND INTO THE 60S, CLOSER TO AVERAGE, AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES SOME. SOME WARM ADVECTION BEGINS WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-30S TO MID-40S BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, DEW POINTS WILL
HAVE MORE DOWNWARD POTENTIAL, CLOSER TO THE 25TH PERCENTILE
OF THE GUIDANCE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD (THURSDAY),
WITH LOWS WARMING THROUGH THE 40S/50S AND HIGHS WARMING
THROUGH THE 70S AWAY FROM THE COOLER WATERS OF THE GULF
COAST. A MOISTENING AIR MASS FAVORS OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
FOG, WHICH WE BEGAN TO INTRODUCE ON TUESDAY IN THE FL
COUNTIES. CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR LIGHT OVERRUNNING
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THAT LOOKS TO BE OUR ONLY PRECIP
OPPORTUNITY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
FRESH WESTERLY BREEZES TODAY CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO
ADVISORY-LEVEL THRESHOLDS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THIS EVENING,
AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THRU LATE SATURDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET. MORE
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS. LOOKING
AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY, A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE
SHELF WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH RH VALUES PLUNGING THROUGH THE MID-
20S AND MID-30S EACH DAY FOR AFTERNOON MINIMUMS. THIS COMBINED WITH
BRISK NORTH TRANSPORT WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, MAINLY IN THE FL BIG BEND. GOOD DISPERSION IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS SUNDAY AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLOWER RECOVERY
OF DISPERSION THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, SUCH THAT THE FL
COUNTIES MAY HAVE LOW DISPERSION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN IS
WEDNESDAY, IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SHOWERS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AS OF FEB 3,
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. NO BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RIVERS, STREAMS, AND
PONDS REMAIN AT EXCEPTIONALLY LOW LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 61 34 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 63 37 61 45 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 59 32 62 41 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 58 29 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 60 31 64 36 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 66 33 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 61 39 59 44 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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