355
FXUS62 KTAE 242355
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
755 PM EDT WED APR 24 2019
UPDATE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST DURING
THE EVENING UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION [739 PM EDT]
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT EXTENSIVE
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60.
SHORT TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINS TO OUR
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. SPC UPDATED THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AND HAS
HIGHLIGHTED OUR FLORIDA PANHANDLE COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK AND
OUR SE AL, ALONG WITH MOST OUR SW GA AND BIG BEND COUNTIES IN A
MARGINAL RISK.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ECAM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COMING
TOGETHER. DEEP LAYER (0-6 KM) SHEAR VALUES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
AROUND 50 KTS ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.5-7 C/KM. MLCAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG ALONG WITH SURFACE
TO 1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS OR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IN LINE SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
TORNADOES.
ALL CONVECTION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S AND LOWS WILL BE AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.
LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE IN
OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE DEEP LAYER RIDGING RETURNS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.
AVIATION
[THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY] VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SOME DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND POSSIBLY SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
ELEVATE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LOWER OVER THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HYDROLOGY
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS
BROAD CREST IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT 19 FEET. THE RIVER SHOULD
GRADUALLY RECEDE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE, GENERALLY KEEPING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS ACROSS THE REGION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 59 84 65 85 59 / 0 0 80 70 0
PANAMA CITY 63 76 67 81 62 / 0 10 80 40 0
DOTHAN 60 81 64 82 57 / 0 20 80 30 0
ALBANY 60 84 66 83 58 / 0 0 80 60 0
VALDOSTA 60 86 65 84 59 / 0 0 60 80 0
CROSS CITY 60 85 65 83 61 / 0 0 30 80 0
APALACHICOLA 63 76 68 80 63 / 0 0 80 60 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...MCD
NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...MCD
HYDROLOGY...NGUYEN
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