102  
FXUS62 KTAE 051040  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
640 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]  
 
PATCHY FOG AND REUSLTANT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR ECP WILL  
DISSIPATE BY 13Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL  
TAF SITES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ECP THIS MORNING, THEN  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ALL TAF SITES THIS  
AFTERNOON. STORMS WANE AFTER 00Z. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE  
AGAIN NEAR DHN AND ECP, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN  
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [251 AM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER SHOULD DISSIPATE  
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE BERMUDA HIGH NOSES ITS INFLUENCE INTO  
OUR CWA WITH SOME SLIGHT SUBSIDENCE, RESULTING IN A MINIMUM IN  
RAIN CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GA (40-50%). MEANWHILE, IT'S A  
COPY/PASTE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE AREA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS  
NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING, BECOMING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS  
AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE FARTHER INLAND. POPS ARE AROUND 50-70% FOR  
SOUTHEAST AL, SOUTHWEST GA, AND THE FLORIDA COUNTIES. DCAPE MAY BE  
A TOUCH HIGHER TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, RISING TO 700-900 J/KG,  
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGEST  
STORMS. OTHERWISE, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS NEAR/ABOVE 2  
INCHES WILL RESULT IN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH STORMS. HIGHS  
WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S AREAWIDE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF  
100-105. STORMS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH LOWS IN THE MID-70S.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]
 
 
A SEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE  
AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS PRECIPITABLE WATER  
VALUES TO RANGE FROM JUST BELOW 2 INCHES TO JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES  
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PATTERN OF SCATTERED  
DIURNAL CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30-50%  
RANGE. LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL  
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW  
TO MID 70S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]
 
 
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH  
MAY APPROACH AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND,  
ENHANCING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UP INTO THE  
LIKELY RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT  
WITH TROPICAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES  
POSSIBLE. SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID  
90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IN HIGH  
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND 90 IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE  
STORMS PUSH INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE  
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AWAY  
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS  
WEEKEND. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE  
WEEK, BUT MAY INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 FEET THIS WEEKEND.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LOW DISPERSIONS  
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE, MOST  
CONDITIONS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS PRECLUDES AND  
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL  
DAYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE POCKETS OF  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD SOME AREAS OF ISOLATED FLOODING IN  
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, THERE ARE NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING  
ISSUES EXPECTED.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR (WHILE FOLLOWING ALL LOCAL, STATE, AND CDC GUIDELINES) BY  
CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 93 74 95 75 95 / 60 20 40 10 40  
PANAMA CITY 89 78 90 77 90 / 50 10 30 10 30  
DOTHAN 91 74 93 74 94 / 60 20 30 10 30  
ALBANY 94 76 96 77 97 / 50 20 30 10 40  
VALDOSTA 93 74 95 75 96 / 50 20 30 10 40  
CROSS CITY 91 75 94 75 93 / 50 20 50 20 50  
APALACHICOLA 88 77 89 78 90 / 40 10 30 10 30  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...YOUNG  
SHORT TERM...DVD  
LONG TERM...DVD  
AVIATION...YOUNG  
MARINE...DVD  
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG  
HYDROLOGY...DVD  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab FL Page
The Nexlab GA Page
The Nexlab AL Page Main Text Page