116
FXUS62 KTAE 030722
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
322 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA WITH LOCALIZED
ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
THIS DISCUSSION HAS PROBABLY BEEN SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD
FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PULLING IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP THE
REGION PRIMED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH AN ADDITIONAL
1-3 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE
OCCURING OVER THE FL BIG BEND AND ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WE WILL
START DRYING OUT IN SE AL AND SW GA COUNTIES AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTH TODAY, ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN AND
LOWERING THE RAIN CHANCES. THESE COUNTIES MAY SEE 0.25-1" OF
RAINFALL, MAINLY THIS MORNING. POPS DECREASE TO 30% AND LESS FOR
THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE FLINT/APALACHICOLA
RIVERS. THE WPC HAS THE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE ALBANY TO
PANAMA CITY LINE IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WITH THE EXTREME SE BIG BEND IN A SLIGHT (2 OF 4) RISK
TODAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES WITH LIGHT WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS MOSTLY PASSED. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LINGERS
NORTH OF THE REGION, BUT WEAKENING. POPS FOR TUESDAY ARE AROUND
40-60 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
BY MIDWEEK, WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH
POPS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FOR THE LONG TERM, BUT PWATS ARE
LOWER RANGING AROUND 1.5-2", LOWERING OUR CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN
RATES. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100-108 DEGREES, AND
ISOLATED AREAS UP TO 112. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
ONE MORE ROUND OF RAINFALL AND STORMS TODAY WILL OCCUR TODAY.
CONVECTION IS GETTING AN EARLY START TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN GULF
CURRENTLY AND MOVED UP TIMING OF ONSET OF SHRA AT ECP AND TLH.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA
TODAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME DRIER AIR AND PUSH THE RAINFALL
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS KEEPING DHN AND ABY MOSTLY DRY.
IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA, WHICH ARE
BEGINNING TO IMPACT ABY CURRENTLY AND VLD OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AOB 10 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR ANY STRONGER
STORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF CAUTIONARY LEVELS WILL HOLD OVER APALACHEE BAY
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH 4-5 FT SEAS. TONIGHT, WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN DECREASING WHERE WE CAN SEE 2 FT WAVES AND LIGHT
TO GENTLE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO VEER SOUTHERLY BY MIDWEEK AND SHIFT EASTERLY TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE FL BIG BEND AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THIS
AFTERNOON, DISTRICTS WEST OF THE FLINT AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS
WILL SEE A WESTERN SHIFT IN TRANSPORT WINDS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. DISPERSIONS WILL INCREASE OVER THE FL AND
AL WIREGRASS REGIONS TO A MODERATE LEVEL. FAIR TO MODERATE
DISPERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER, AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST AS WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
WITH SCATTERED POPS OF 30-60 PERCENT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WAVES OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. THE WPC HAS
THE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE ALBANY AND PANAMA CITY LINE IN A
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK AND THE SE BIG BEND IN A SLIGHT
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY. THE FLOOD WATCH
COVERS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE TO THE BIG BEND WITH ANOTHER 1-3
INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 4- 6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. AS THE RAIN BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON, THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE TRIMMED TO FOLLOW SUITE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE
ENTER A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND LESS CHANCES FOR FLOODING.
WE ARE CURRENTLY MONITORING A FEW COASTAL RIVERS AND CREEKS THAT
MAY SEE SHARP RISES THROUGH TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF RIVERS MAY
BRIEFLY ENTER MINOR FLOOD. AFTER TODAY, THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
DECREASES AND OVERALL FLOODING CONCERNS WILL SUBSIDE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 88 72 91 73 / 70 10 70 10
PANAMA CITY 89 76 90 77 / 20 20 20 10
DOTHAN 90 72 91 72 / 20 10 20 10
ALBANY 90 72 91 72 / 20 10 40 10
VALDOSTA 88 71 92 72 / 70 20 50 10
CROSS CITY 86 73 91 73 / 90 50 30 20
APALACHICOLA 87 77 88 77 / 70 20 30 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ012>019-027>029-034-112-
114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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