630
FXUS62 KTAE 071403
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1003 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE THIS MORNING. AN ACTIVE START
OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS SENT
ANVIL CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS OUR PANHANDLE COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
WHILE THIS COULD DELAY THE START OF STORMS THERE FOR A FEW HOURS,
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL REDEVELOP AS THE SUNSHINE BEGINS TO
WARM CONDITIONS UP SO HAVE LEFT THE RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE ACROSS
THESE AREAS.
NEAR TERM THROUGH LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
FAIRLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY ROUTINE AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO
MOISTEN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE SEA BREEZE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND WITH
EACH PASSING DAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A
COUPLE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CONUS, FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THESE SUBTLE
PERTURBATIONS COULD ACT AS ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT, LEADING
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER INLAND, PRIMARILY ACROSS
SE ALABAMA AND SW GEORGIA. RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
A LITTLE MORE MOISTENING OF THE AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO A
INCREASED AND MORE TYPICAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION, SO
ALL TERMINALS WILL HAVE SOME MENTION OF THUNDER. ALREADY, THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING, WHICH IS AN
EARLY SIGNAL OF POTENTIAL ON LAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEABREEZE
WILL ALSO PENETRATE A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND, AND WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL FAVOR TLH MOST OF ALL FOR CONVECTION, WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR A TEMPO GROUP. THE STORMS THEMSELVES WILL BE
SHORT- LIVED AND PULSY, GIVEN NEITHER LARGE SCALE FORCING NOR
ORGANIZING WIND SHEAR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS, MAXIMIZING NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS WITH THE DAILY SEA BREEZE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST COMMON DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS OVER THE WATERS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS, MAXIMIZING NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS WITH THE DAILY SEA BREEZE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST COMMON DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS OVER THE WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY BEGINNING MONDAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION AND HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL ALLOW INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE TRI-STATE REGION AND A
RETURN TO MORE SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS. MEANING, HIGHS IN THE 90S EACH
DAY, HEAT INDICES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 100S IN SPOTS, AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH MID EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. DISPERSIONS AND TRANSPORT WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WILL BE TYPICAL OF THE
SUMMER WET SEASON, RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 92 74 93 75 / 70 10 60 20
PANAMA CITY 90 78 91 78 / 60 10 40 20
DOTHAN 94 74 94 74 / 50 10 40 10
ALBANY 95 75 95 75 / 50 10 50 20
VALDOSTA 95 74 95 75 / 60 10 60 30
CROSS CITY 90 74 91 73 / 60 10 60 20
APALACHICOLA 88 78 89 77 / 50 10 40 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...OLIVER
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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