437
FXUS62 KTAE 050656
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
156 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 156 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS ANY WEEKEND RAINFALL WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE RELIEF.
- THE FIRST KILLING FROST AND/OR FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS LIKELY
OVER INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA AND SOUTH ALABAMA. TO ITS SOUTH OVER NORTH FLORIDA,
EASTERLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
WITH UPSTREAM OBS AT 1 AM ET IN PLACES LIKE GAINESVILLE AND
JACKSONVILLE SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. THE INCREASE
IN SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL FAVOR PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA PARKWAY. AS MOISTURE
SPREADS FURTHER WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT, FOG ON THURSDAY MORNING
WILL EXPAND FURTHER WEST INTO THE FL PANHANDLE.
OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TREND UPWARD AN ADDITIONAL
1-4 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE LOW RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND, A STRONG COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY, AND THE FIRST KILLING
FROST AND/OR FREEZE OF THE SEASON OVER INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY
MORNING.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY, AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST TOWARD BERMUDA. THIS WILL PUSH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL MAKE THE CONTINUED
WARMING TREND MOST PRONOUNCED IN HOLDING UP NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES.
ON SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. TO ITS SOUTH, 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL DROP A FEW TENS
OF METERS ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT, AND LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY. THE AIR MASS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE (MEANING
CAPE 1000+ J/KG) AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS PEAK IN THE 65F-70F RANGE,
AND THE WARM CAPPING LAYER ALOFT ERODES. THERE WILL BE A LACK OF
LARGER-SCALE JET STREAM LIFT, SO WE WILL MAINLY RELY ON SUBTLE
LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES TO KICK OFF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IN A SITUATION WHERE LOW- LEVEL FLOW IS VEERING FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME, THE CONFLUENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF
CAN FOCUS CONVECTION INTO THE PANHANDLE. THERE COULD ALSO BE WEAK
SEABREEZE FORCING, THOUGH WE ARE ENTERING THE SUN-DEPRIVED TIME
OF YEAR WHEN THE SEABREEZE IS PUNY. SO IT MAY BE A STRUGGLE TO
FIND THE LOW- LEVEL FORCING NEEDED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION, BUT THE
AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH AND JUST MOIST ENOUGH FOR DEEP
CONVECTION. FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT EXHIBIT VERTICAL GROWTH,
THERE WILL BE RESPECTABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 25-35 KNOTS,
WITH DEEP-LAYER TURNING FROM S-SW AT THE SURFACE TO WESTERLY IN
THE MID-LEVELS. SO WHILE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED, THE
CELLS THAT DO FORM WILL BE ABLE TO TILT, SELF-SUSTAIN, AND BECOME
STRONG.
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA WILL HAPPEN ON SUNDAY, DISLODGING A LOBE OF CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIR OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND SHIPPING IT SOUTH.
AFTER DAYS OF MILD WEATHER FOR US, THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONG AND
ABRUPT COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT ITSELF
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE IF ANY RAIN, CONSIDERING THE FRONT'S
FAST MOVEMENT AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM SASKATCHEWAN (A CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCE) ON
SATURDAY MORNING ALL THE WAY TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL EASILY BRING THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON
TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, THIS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. SO WE ARE
ADVERTISING THE FIRST KILLING FROST AND/OR FREEZE OF THE SEASON
FOR MANY OF OUR INLAND COMMUNITIES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW ON TUESDAY MORNING, THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS LOWS MOST COMMONLY IN THE 30-35 DEGREE RANGE.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS AND QUITE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW ROOM
FOR LATER FORECASTS TO EVEN DROP INTO THE 20S IN SPOTS. FOR
LOCATIONS THAT REACH 32 DEGREES OR LESS, THIS "FIRST FREEZE" DATE
WOULD COME ABOUT 1-2 WEEKS EARLIER THAN THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE OF
INLAND SITES FROM 1990-2024.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
POTENTIAL SHALLOW FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK FOR THE VLD, ABY,
AND TLH TERMINALS THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD DISPERSE SOON AFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING
BECOMING SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE ECP TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AS A
LIGHT SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 156 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO
SOMETIMES MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT TOWARD BERMUDA ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO
CLOCK AROUND SOUTHEASTERLY. WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND SOUTHWESTERLY
AND WESTERLY ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BLAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS ON
SUNDAY. A TURN TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH NEAR-GALE FORCE GUSTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 156 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
FAIR TO POOR DAYTIME DISPERSION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DISTRICTS
TODAY AND THURSDAY, THANKS TO LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SITTING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THE AIR MASS WILL MOISTEN A BIT TODAY
AND THURSDAY, PROVIDING THE MOISTURE NEEDED FOR THE RETURN OF
MORNING FOG. DISPERSION WILL IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AND SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE, WITH FURTHER MOISTENING OF THE AIR
MASS EXPECTED. ANY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO
BRING SUBSTANTIVE DROUGHT RELIEF. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY GUSTY CONDITIONS MONDAY. THE FIRST KILLING
FROST AND/OR FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS LIKELY OVER INLAND DISTRICTS
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS OF NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 156 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WILL PERSIST OR WORSEN. THERE WILL BE
LOW RAIN CHANCES AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WHERE
RAIN OCCURS, IT WILL MOSTLY BE AT OR BELOW 0.25 INCHES. ISOLATED
SPOTS COULD PICK UP AS MUCH AS 0.5 INCHES. THESE KIND OF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, WHERE THEY OCCUR, WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PENETRATE FAR
INTO THE GROUND AND WILL PROVIDE NO SUBSTANTIVE DROUGHT RELIEF.
MORE INFORMATION AT: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 80 55 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 77 58 78 59 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 78 50 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 78 48 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 80 50 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 82 52 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 73 57 74 61 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page