820
FXUS62 KTAE 181412
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1012 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1008 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW.
- NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AMIDST BREEZY WINDS MAY FOSTER
SOME FIRE CONCERNS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
UPDATES DO NOT APPEAR NECESSARY THIS MORNING, THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WINDS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
PERSISTS WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND AND
LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST AND SE BIG BEND. TONIGHT, WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S FOR OUR AL AND GA COUNTIES, WITH LOW
50S FOR OUR FL COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WE WILL HAVE A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS TO OUR
NORTHEAST, AND A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING US
OUR DRY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW, WHILE THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW
OUR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST THIS TAF CYCLE, 8-10 KNOTS CURRENTLY BECOMING GUSTY
14-15Z AT ALL SITES WITH GUST SPEEDS 20-22 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING AS GALE-
FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THEN TAKES EFFECT
AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED IN THIS
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
RELAXING DURING THE DAY MONDAY, HOWEVER MORE FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID-WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
DISPERSIONS WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD/MODERATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
AT 15- 20 MPH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THEN CALMING TO AROUND 10-15
MPH BY THE EVENING. STILL, THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25-30
MPH DURING THE DAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO A QUICKER DRYING OF FUELS.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BECOME NEARLY CRITICAL FOR OUR NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA DISTRICTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, RAISING OUR
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH OUR TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING
THROUGH THE 70S, AND NO RAIN IN SIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
THE RIVER SITES WE HAVE IN ACTION STAGE WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE ARE NO
OTHER HYDROLOGIC OR FLOODING CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 69 50 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 71 53 74 51 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 68 46 71 46 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 67 46 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 68 48 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 73 53 76 49 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 70 56 74 55 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ MONDAY FOR GMZ730-
751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page