623
FXUS62 KTAE 190510
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
110 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE OF HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND HAVING A LOW CHANCE OF HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 95. THE HEAT
MAY AFFECT THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE, ESPECIALLY WITHOUT
COOLING/HYDRATION.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH COVERAGE INCREASING LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY OVER MAINLY INLAND PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. SOME OF THE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH, LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THESE WILL FADE DURING
THE EARLY TO MID PART OF THE EVENING WITH A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT
AHEAD. LOWS AREA-WIDE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVERALL AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND PWATS
DECREASE A BIT. RAIN CHANCES ARE AT MOST AROUND 20-30% EACH DAY.
IT WILL BE VERY HOT, HOWEVER, BY MAY STANDARDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO POTENTIALLY MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
3 DAYS WITH SOME AREAS SEEING HEAT INDEX VALUES NEARING 100 FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT COULD AFFECT THOSE
WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, SUCH AS THE ELDERLY, THOSE WITH CHRONIC
HEALTH CONDITIONS, OR THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE COOLING OR
HYDRATION.
BY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BIT MORE TO THE EAST AS TROUGHING NUDGES MORE INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
PULL IN MORE MOISTURE TO OUR AREA WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY BE AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL COME BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S,
BUT WITH THE INCREASED HUMIDITY, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 90S TO TO LOW 100S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR 70.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE VFR. THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THAT
MAY AFFECT THE DHN AND ECP TERMINALS THROUGH DAYBREAK. AT MOST, IT
MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO MVFR. ANOTHER STRATUS DECK MIGHT APPROACH
THE VLD TERMINAL THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS. DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE, THE TAFS REMAIN VFR BUT WITH A TEMPO GROUP
INDICATING LOWERING CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. VFR IS EXPECTED TO THEN
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TONIGHT
WITH SOME AREAS APPROACHING CAUTIONARY LEVELS, ESPECIALLY OVER
APALACHEE BAY. OTHERWISE, TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL CONTINUE
EACH DAY, THOUGH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS MORE
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS IT PASSES THROUGH. DISPERSIONS WILL BE
GOOD EACH DAY ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AS WELL AS FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. THESE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME NUISANCE FLOODING, MAINLY IN URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE
THE RAIN IS BENEFICIAL, SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT
CONDITIONS IS NOT EXPECTED. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT
IMPACTS, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 91 72 92 72 / 10 10 20 0
PANAMA CITY 87 71 87 71 / 10 0 20 0
DOTHAN 89 69 90 68 / 0 10 30 10
ALBANY 90 69 91 69 / 0 0 20 10
VALDOSTA 91 67 92 69 / 10 0 10 10
CROSS CITY 93 68 94 70 / 40 10 20 10
APALACHICOLA 84 74 84 73 / 0 0 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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