651
FXUS62 KTAE 270609
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
209 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM STORMS. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
HEAVY RAIN RECENTLY
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEACHGOERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES AND
DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF IF RED OR DOUBLE RED FLAGS ARE
FLYING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
YESTERDAY'S CUT OFF LOW HAS BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER TROUGHING
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN US. WE'LL STILL HAVE LITTLE SHORTWAVES
PIVOTING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGHING. MEANWHILE,
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. WE STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING, THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIKE RECENT SETUPS, THE BIG BEND
WILL HAVE THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES AGAIN TODAY AS A PRODUCT OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING THE SEA BREEZE FARTHER INLAND. GUSTY WINDS,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER STORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY DON'T APPEAR AS HIGH, AND THE
CEILING FOR OUR LOCALIZED HIGH-END TOTALS IS LOWER, CLOSER TO 2 TO 4
INCHES TODAY IN ISOLATED SPOTS. GRANTED, THIS COULD STILL CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN COPIOUS RAINFALL THE LAST FEW
DAYS, BUT THE LOWER POTENTIAL LEADS ME TO NOT RE-ISSUE THE FLOOD
WATCH FOR TODAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY FADE OVER LAND DURING THE EVENING
OR EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG FOR INLAND AREAS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST, THOUGH NEAR 90
IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
TROUGHING DIGS OVER THE NORTHEAST US THAT WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST, BUT IT WON'T MAKE IT HERE YET. WE'LL
FIND OURSELVES CAUGHT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE, A RIDGE TO OUR EAST, AND
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF.
THESE WILL PUT A BIT OF A SQUEEZE OVER OUR AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE FLORIDA AND ALABAMA COUNTIES AND LESS
SO OVER GEORGIA ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AROUND FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES.
THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST DIGS A BIT MORE INTO THE GULF FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, CONTINUING TO DRAW UP DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT EASES
TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT MAY SLIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY, BUT
UNTIL THEN, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN LIKELY, SOME WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. STRONGER STORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL NOW, BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP TO MVFR OR
IFR AT ECP AND DHN. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT ABY AND
DHN THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN NEAR ECP AND SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TLH
ONCE AGAIN HAS THE LOWEST CHANCE OF TSRA OF THE TERMINALS, SO HAVE
PROB30 FOR TSRA AT TLH WITH VCTS PREVAILING AT ALL OTHER SITES.
TSRA SHOULD END BY 02Z AT ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
LIKELY EACH DAY, MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
A WET PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND TODAY, THEN
ACROSS THE GEORGIA ZONES ON THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
TRANSPORT WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY AROUND 10-15 MPH,
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DISPERSIONS ARE
GOOD TODAY, FAIR ON THURSDAY, THEN GOOD AGAIN FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. GIVEN PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES EACH DAY, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES, THOUGH THESE
TOTALS CAN OCCUR IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME UNDER SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME AREAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD TOTALS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES (10% CHANCE OF EXCEEDANCE OVER 7 DAYS). LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL TAKE ABOUT 2
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN 1 HOUR OR ABOUT 2.5 TO 4 INCHES IN 3 HOURS TO
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ADD ABOUT AN INCH TO THESE
VALUES FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS.
ON THE RIVERINE FRONT, THE UPPER PARTS OF THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE, PEA,
AND SHOAL BASINS ARE IN OR FORECAST TO REACH ACTION STAGE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. IT WILL STILL TAKE ABOUT 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN FOR
MOST OF OUR RIVERS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD, AND CHANCES OF MINOR
FLOODING ON RIVERS ARE LOW.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 88 71 87 71 / 40 30 80 20
PANAMA CITY 86 74 86 73 / 50 20 60 20
DOTHAN 85 69 86 69 / 80 50 80 40
ALBANY 86 69 87 69 / 50 40 50 40
VALDOSTA 89 70 88 70 / 50 30 70 20
CROSS CITY 92 71 88 71 / 40 20 60 10
APALACHICOLA 85 75 84 74 / 40 30 60 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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