826
FXUS62 KTAE 250137
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
937 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT THE WALTON, BAY, AND GULF
COUNTY BEACHES TODAY. IT IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF
ON HIGH RISK DAYS. HEED THE BEACH FLAGS AND ADVICE FROM OFFICIALS.
- HAZARDOUS HEAT RETURNS BY MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID-90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. THERE IS A MEDIUM
(50 TO 70%) CHANCE OF REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE IS
A LOW (25%) CHANCE OF EXTREME HEATRISK, WHICH AFFECTS EVERYONE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE LINGERED LONGER THAN FORECAST THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND AND THE
APALACHEE BAY. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR,
POSSIBLY TWO, BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE WEAKENING THANKS TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE A
RETURN TO NORMAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A STALLED FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW AND SUNDAY. DANGEROUS HEAT WILL BE OF
INCREASING CONCERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS DAYTIME HIGHS JUMP INTO THE UPPER 90S WITH ISOLATED LOW 100S.
WHEN COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HEAT
INDICIES COULD BECOME POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS. THERE'S AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR US TO SEE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MET (FEEL-LIKE TEMPS
AT OR ABOVE 108 DEGREES), WITH A SMALL CHANCE TO SEE EXTREME HEAT
CONDITIONS MET (FEEL-LIKE TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 113 DEGREES). OVERNIGHT
LOWS WON'T FEEL MUCH COOLER EITHER, AS LOWS CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION CURRENTLY WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF AREA TAFS. SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WITH ALL TAF SITES HAVING ATLEAST A PROB30 FOR TSRA
AFTER 19Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WOULD OCCUR IN AND AROUND
STRONGER STORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE SEABREEZE. ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WATERS
WITH A LESSER TENDENCY FOR A SEABREEZE. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL TURN UP THE HEAT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BEFORE RETURNING TO
MORE SEA BREEZE DRIVEN MONDAY AND BEYOND. HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL BE
THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITH HEAT INDICIES APPROACHING 108+ DEGREES
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
GENERALLY, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED EACH AFTERNOON WITH
AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED HIGH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY DOWNPOURS. THERE
ARE NO RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 76 95 76 94 / 10 40 20 40
PANAMA CITY 78 93 79 92 / 0 30 10 20
DOTHAN 75 93 75 94 / 0 50 10 30
ALBANY 76 93 75 93 / 10 50 30 50
VALDOSTA 76 95 75 94 / 10 40 20 60
CROSS CITY 76 96 77 94 / 30 30 20 60
APALACHICOLA 78 92 79 91 / 0 20 20 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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