365
FXUS62 KTAE 071801
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
101 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1121 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
- RECURRING ROUNDS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS A MEDIUM (50 TO 70 PERCENT)
CHANCE OF DENSE FOG SPREADING INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING INTO THE FL COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GA
SUNDAY MORNING. ALLOW EXTRA TIME FOR YOUR MORNING COMMUTES.
- ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND HAIL.
REMEMBER, "WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!"
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF REACHING
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY IS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM AND FOG POTENTIAL. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS SE AL WIREGRASS
INTO THE FLINT RIVER VALLEY OF GA WITH SB CAPE AROUND 2K J/KG.
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6C/KM ARE NOT AS
STEEP AS YESTERDAY, SO LARGE HAIL IS NOT AS BIG OF A CONCERN,
ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL IS A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN IS STRONG
WIND GUSTS GIVEN DCAPE AROUND 2K J/KG, SO A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS.
OVERNIGHT, AN MCS TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST.
IT'S EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE,
POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHEAST AL, BUT MORE LIKELY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. A LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH SB CIN SHOULD LIMIT
MAKE ANY LINGERING CONVECTION ELEVATED.
ON SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION,
CAMS FAVOR CONVECTION FIRING NORTHWEST OF THE FL BIG BEND DURING
THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF
500 J/KG SB CAPE. THE STRONGER WIND FIELD AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. DCAPE DOES INCREASE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FL BIG BEND, SO CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
SEA FOG EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND INTO THE FL COUNTIES AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST GA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A MEDIUM
(50 TO 70 PERCENT) CHANCE OF DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA. ALLOW EXTRA TIME FOR YOUR MORNING COMMUTES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. VERY WARM TO BORDERLINE HOT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FOG POTENTIAL EACH MORNING. THEN A
TURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER.
ON MONDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT IS FASTER AND MORE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST, ALLOWING STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR
STORMS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIPPLES THROUGH ALOFT. TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FL BIG BEND, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
MODELED AROUND 7C/KM, ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT SB CAPE FOR
STORMS, AND DECENT DCAPE AS WELL. THIS WOULD FAVOR STRONG
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL,
IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TO BORDERLINE HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THRU WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
AWAY FROM THE COOLER WATERS OF THE GULF COAST. THERE IS A
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-50%) FOR HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 FOR
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE GUIDANCE FAVORS MOST OF THE REGION MAKING IT INTO THE
WARM SECTOR, WITH A HIGH-SHEAR LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT FAVORED.
IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY SEVERE THREAT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
A VERBOSE SET OF TAFS FOR THE 18Z CYCLE TO ACCT FOR ISOL'D THUNDER
INVOF DHN/ABY/VLD THIS AFTN, ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/LOW STRATUS
TONIGHT INTO TMRW MORNING, AND ADD'L CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE
WEST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD APPROACHING ECP/DHN. BORDERLINE VFR-
MVFR PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING UNDER A HEALTHY FAIR-WX CU FIELD
AMIDST SOUTHERLY WINDS. FOG AND LOW STRATUS THEN SPREADS SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS TERMINALS TONIGHT-OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR-VLIFR
IS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY AT ECP/TLH FOLLOWED BY IMPROVEMENT BY 15Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1121 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG, DENSE AT
TIMES, THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS
OVER THE WINTER-CHILLED WATERS. THE RIDGE MAINTAINS SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE
IN THE SEABREEZE ZONE EACH DAY. WINDS, SEAS, AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1121 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE FL
BIG BEND. SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SEABREEZES LIKELY EACH DAY CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST. ON SUNDAY,
LOW DISPERSION IS LIKELY IN THE WIREGRASS AND EASTERN FL PANHANDLE.
ON MONDAY, DISPERSION WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AND LOW VALUES MAY LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY THE FL COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1121 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WHILE LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS, FLOOD
CONCERNS REMAIN RATHER LOW. THE MAIN HYDROLOGIC HAZARD REMAINS THE
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT IMPACTS, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 81 61 84 63 / 0 0 20 10
PANAMA CITY 78 63 76 64 / 0 0 20 10
DOTHAN 84 63 78 63 / 40 10 60 30
ALBANY 84 61 81 62 / 20 10 40 20
VALDOSTA 86 61 86 62 / 10 10 20 10
CROSS CITY 86 60 84 60 / 10 10 10 0
APALACHICOLA 72 63 73 64 / 0 0 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...LF/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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