847
FXUS62 KTAE 220621
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
221 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES INTO THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. BEACHGOERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT LIFEGUARDS ON SURF
CONDITIONS AND DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF IF RED OR DOUBLE
RED FLAGS ARE FLYING.
- HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOST COMMONLY REACH THE 90 TO 95
DEGREE RANGE. MODERATE HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED,
AFFECTING THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, AND SOME HEALTH
SYSTEMS AND INDUSTRIES.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STRONGER
STORMS.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
RIDGING REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WHILE A SHORTWAVE TRIES TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, REDUCING RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT TODAY (GENERALLY 30-
50% INLAND, AND LOWER NEAR THE COAST). SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE CENTRAL TIME ZONE TO
THE LOWER 90S FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT, HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 THIS AFTERNOON.
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND MOVES FARTHER
OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS OPENS OUR AREA UP TO MORE RAIN CHANCES
AS THE SHORTWAVE INCHES CLOSER AND A FEW WEAKER SHORTWAVES ROTATE
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ON SATURDAY, ONE OF THESE
SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS GEORGIA, WHICH MAY HELP INCREASE SHEAR JUST
A BIT, YIELDING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA, MAINLY NORTH OF
US 84. PWATS INCREASE TO 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES, ABOVE THE 95TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN
ACROSS INLAND AREAS (60-90%), BUT COASTAL LOCALES MAY GET IN ON THE
RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND (30-50%) GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL STILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEAR THE COAST WILL STILL BE NEAR 100.
NEXT WEEK, THE SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW DEEP MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. PWATS
REMAIN NEAR THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL
KEEP OUR WET PATTERN ROLLING ALONG WITH HIGH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND
THE THREAT FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA, BUT IF ANY
SOUTHWARD SHIFTS OCCUR, WE COULD SEE SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IN
OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN SOME AS A
RESULT OF THE HIGH RAIN CHANCES, ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
HIGHS, THOUGH IT WILL STILL REMAIN HUMID. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 OUTSIDE OF STORMS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT VSBYS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR
SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS UNTIL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN FIRING UP
AGAIN, WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER ANY DOWNPOUR.
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY INLAND ACROSS
DHN/VLD/ABY BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED TSRA NEAR TLH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS AROUND 1-2 FEET. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH WILL LEAD TO HIGH
DISPERSIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
THE EASTERN BIG BEND. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND TO AROUND
10 MPH, WHICH WILL YIELD GOOD DISPERSIONS EACH DAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS AT OR ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STORMS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN, LOW-LYING, OR
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOST LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE FL COUNTIES WITH
1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTH GEORGIA. HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS. THIS RAIN WILL ALSO HELP TO
RECHARGE OUR RIVER SYSTEMS, WHICH ARE STILL QUITE LOW. THIS RAIN IS
EXTREMELY BENEFICIAL FOR THE AREA AS SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
CONTINUES. FOR THE LATEST ON DROUGHT IMPACTS, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 90 73 89 73 / 10 10 50 10
PANAMA CITY 86 74 86 74 / 20 30 60 10
DOTHAN 87 70 84 69 / 30 30 90 30
ALBANY 90 70 87 69 / 50 40 80 60
VALDOSTA 91 71 90 70 / 50 20 90 30
CROSS CITY 93 73 93 73 / 20 10 40 20
APALACHICOLA 85 76 84 76 / 20 20 40 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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