752
FXUS62 KTAE 272341
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
741 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S, ISOLATED 90S, AND LOWS IN THE MID-60S. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA TO RECEIVE AN INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER OUR CENTRAL TIME ZONE COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY, A LARGER THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS STARTING
TO TAKE SHAPE FOR SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS SLOWLY PUSHED SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
IN ITS WAKE. THIS FEATURE WILL STALL LATER TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
WASHING OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CAROLINAS TODAY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD FOR TUESDAY, ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO BECOME MORE ONSHORE LOCALLY AND RESUMING A WARMING AND
MOISTENING TREND. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL PERSIST FOR THE MOST
PART ON TUESDAY, HOWEVER THERE'S A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT A GROUP OF
STORMS OR A WEAKENING MCS COULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY EVENING OR INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THE STORMS ARE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA,
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA, WHICH WILL LEND TO A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WESTERN PORTIONS IN THE AREA ARE PLACED IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.
SCATTERED COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED BY THE
REMNANT OF WHATEVER BOUNDARY IS LEFT FROM STORMS (IF ANY) THE
NIGHT BEFORE AND/OR THE SEABREEZE.
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH LITTLE DYNAMIC
SUPPORT AND THEREFORE A LOWER SEVERE THREAT. THIS COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY: COULD BE
CENTRAL FL OR SOMEWHERE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. WHERE THIS FRONT ENDS
UP WILL LARGELY DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS LOCALLY ON SATURDAY. IF THE
FRONT STALLS CLOSER TO OUR AREA, THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD MOVE
BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT WITH A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER MS/AL. THIS SCENARIO COULD LEAD TO A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ON SATURDAY WITH TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER, IF THE FRONT ENDS UP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH,
WE COULD JUST GET A SOAKING STRATIFORM RAIN AS THE SURFACE LOW
PASSES TO THE SOUTH. WE'LL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR
FUTURE FORECASTS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.
THIS IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR PUSHING LOW STRATUS WESTWARD
TOWARDS VLD AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS TLH. CURRENTLY, MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THESE LOCATIONS, BUT A SCT LOWER DECK
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS IF IT BECOMES BKN. THE
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE, LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
A COMMON NIGHTTIME SURGE OF MODERATE EASTERLIES IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS APALACHEE BAY. THE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND DIRECTLY ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY BREEZES WILL
FRESHEN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, TO THE SOUTH OF A FRONT
BRUSHING ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY AS MINRH VALUES DROP TO BETWEEN 30 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A
WETTING RAIN WILL COME WITH THE MID-WEEK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHILE THERE IS ACTUALLY RAIN IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEK (YAY!), IT
WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE MUCH IF ANY DROUGHT REMOVAL.
MOST OF THE AREA COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OR MORE THROUGH THE 7
DAY PERIOD. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 60 90 65 89 / 0 0 0 10
PANAMA CITY 66 82 67 82 / 0 0 10 10
DOTHAN 62 88 65 89 / 0 20 20 30
ALBANY 58 87 66 88 / 0 10 30 30
VALDOSTA 56 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 10
CROSS CITY 57 90 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 67 78 66 80 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...MERRIFIELD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page