003  
FXUS62 KTAE 031437  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
937 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2022  
   
..NEW UPDATE
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 935 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2022  
 
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE  
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO A PLEASANT SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. AN  
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY WILL  
DROP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2022  
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIMP SOUTH THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA  
TODAY AND SUNDAY, THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN  
GULF ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN GULF FROM  
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING WARM WEATHER THAT WILL BE  
WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF RECORDS ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY  
THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2022  
 
HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE IS STILL IN PLACE FOR TODAY. THERE IS  
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING PATCHY FOG APPROACHING DAYBREAK THIS  
MORNING AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID-MORNING. WE SHALL REMAIN MAINLY  
DRY TODAY WITH POPS CAPPING AT AROUND 20% THIS AFTERNOON AS A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND THE  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. FOG MAY DEVELOP  
AGAIN HEADING INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE MIXED WITH SOME  
LIGHT SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2022  
 
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL LIMP SOUTH THROUGH THE SERVICE AREA ON  
SUNDAY, REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY EVENING AND PROMPTLY  
STALLING. ALONG ITS WAY SOUTH, A FEW WEAK LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE  
EXPECTED, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A PANAMA CITY TO VALDOSTA LINE.  
 
PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED WEAK FRONT AND A TURN TO MOISTENING LOW-  
LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND ON MONDAY WILL KEEP SKIES ON THE CLOUDIER  
SIDE.  
 
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO  
VALLEY, BRINGING A RAINY WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TO THE TENNESSEE  
VALLEY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A DHN-  
FZG LINE, AN AREA THAT COULD BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE  
RAINS TO THE NORTH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2022  
 
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD STRONGLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS  
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EASTERN GULF, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS  
PEAKING IN THE 5880-5900 METER RANGE ON WED NIGHT. THIS REPRESENTS  
VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND IS NEAR THE MAX MOVING  
AVERAGE FOR THIS WEEK OF THE YEAR IN THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY.  
THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY STEER WEATHER SYSTEMS AWAY FROM US AND  
SUPPRESS ANY RAINFALL. IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH MIXING INTO THE  
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR ALOFT, THEN WE WOULD BE WITHIN STRIKING  
DISTANCE OF RECORD HIGHS, AT LEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY  
THURSDAY TOO.  
 
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL START TO SLOWLY FALL ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER  
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF STARTS TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN. HOWEVER,  
IT WILL TAKE UNTIL BEYOND THE 7-DAY FORECAST TO SEE A RETURN OF  
SEASONABLY COOL AIR FROM THE NORTH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2022  
 
PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING OVER THE VLD TERMINAL AND COULD EXPAND  
TO THE ABY AND TLH TERMINALS BEFORE CLEARING BY MID-MORNING.  
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND THERE IS A  
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS BUT, CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO  
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION  
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, SHIFTING THE WINDS WESTERLY. FOG WILL BE  
POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK FOR ALL  
TERMINALS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2022  
 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA THIS MORNING MOVE OVER THE  
NORTHEAST GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL  
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE GULF WATERS ON SUNDAY, THEN PROMPTLY  
DISSIPATE. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES  
WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND PERSIST ON TUESDAY, AS LOW PRESSURE  
MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2022  
 
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION  
APPROACHING DAYBREAK AND SHOULD CLEAR BY MID-MORNING. FOG WILL  
SIMILARLY DEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER  
CONCERN WILL BE DISPERSION VALUES BELOW 20 AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON,  
AS WELL AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL HAVE  
MODERATE TO ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES APPROACHING 60 FOR SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WIND IS THE MAIN FACTOR FOR THE LOW DISPERSIONS.  
THERE WILL BE A NORTHERLY SHIFT IN THE WINDS ON SUNDAY, BUT WINDS  
WILL STILL REMAIN LIGHT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2022  
 
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 78 61 74 57 / 0 10 20 10  
PANAMA CITY 75 62 73 58 / 10 20 20 10  
DOTHAN 75 59 70 53 / 20 20 10 10  
ALBANY 75 58 70 53 / 10 20 10 10  
VALDOSTA 78 59 73 55 / 0 20 20 10  
CROSS CITY 80 56 78 58 / 0 0 10 10  
APALACHICOLA 74 62 73 60 / 0 10 20 10  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ108-115.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...MONTGOMERY  
SHORT TERM...HANER  
LONG TERM....HANER  
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY  
MARINE...HANER  
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY  
HYDROLOGY...HANER  
 
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