258
FXUS62 KTAE 260703
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
303 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
- FLASH FLOODING IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. LOCALIZED
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES MAY FALL TODAY ON TOP OF
INCREASINGLY WET SOILS. IF YOU SEE FLOODING, TURN AROUND, DON'T
DROWN!
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS OF 40-60 MPH, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS,
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM STORMS.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEACHGOERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES AND
DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF IF RED OR DOUBLE RED FLAGS ARE
FLYING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US. MEANWHILE, RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN MORE FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL SET UP COMPETING FLOWS
BETWEEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND THE RIDGE AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM
THE CUT-OFF LOW/TROUGH. THESE WILL CREATE A ZONE OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST, LEADING TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS. WE ALSO HAVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM YESTERDAY'S STORMS AS WELL AS MORE STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
THAT ARE LIFTING NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALSO TAP INTO A TROPICALLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN
PARTS OF OUR AREA, DROPPING TO 1.8 INCHES FARTHER EAST. CONCERNS FOR
FLASH FLOODING ARE HIGHER TODAY THAN RECENT DAYS GIVEN HOW SATURATED
THE SOILS HAVE BECOME AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM ALBANY TO PORT ST. JOE. FARTHER EAST, RAINFALL TOTALS
DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY -- AND SOME MAY SEE VERY LITTLE RAIN IN THE
BIG BEND). LOCALIZED HIGH-END TOTALS (10% CHANCE OF EXCEEDANCE) ARE
IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE. THE PLACEMENT VARIES BETWEEN THE HREF, WHICH
IS MORE ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE, VS THE REFS, WHICH IS MORE
SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHWEST GA. GIVEN THE INCREASED THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING, WE HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH A FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND WEST OF AN
ALBANY TO PORT ST. JOE LINE. IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE WILL
BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN, SO IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT THOSE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE WATCH MAY SEE LITTLE
RAINFALL OR A LOT. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RESOLVE MESOSCALE
FEATURES OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS, AND THIS HAS AN IMPACT ON
TODAY'S FORECAST AS WELL.
A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL AMIDST ALL THIS,
THOUGH DCAPE ISN'T QUITE AS HIGH AND THERE ISN'T AS MUCH DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR TO WORK WITH. SO, THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW, BUT NOT
ZERO. GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH STRONG STORMS
OUTSIDE OF FLASH FLOODING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LIFTS A BIT MORE NORTHWARD AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS OVER OUR AREA UP INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS WILL HELP REDUCE OUR RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT. BUT WE STILL REMAIN
RATHER MOIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH PWATS AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES.
SO, THE BIG BEND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE LEAST FAVORABLE PLACE FOR
RAIN WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THEN THURSDAY,
IT'LL BE MORE OF OUR I-75 CORRIDOR COMMUNITIES NORTH OF VALDOSTA.
BY FRIDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WILL DRAW UP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
OUR AREA YET AGAIN. PWATS SURGE BACK OVER 2 INCHES FOR THIS WEEKEND
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP RAIN
CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. IT'S UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS COLD FRONT GETS BEFORE
STALLING EVENTUALLY. SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THAT POTENTIAL FOR A
STALLING FRONT SOMEWHERE NEARBY THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING THIS HOUR BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY REDUCE IN
COVERAGE THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS, BUT WE STILL CAN'T RULE OUT
ACTIVITY AFFECTING MOST TERMINALS. FOR AREAS THAT MISS OUT ON
RAIN, MOIST CONDITIONS COULD YIELD PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW DUE TO THE MESSY PATTERN. ANY
RESTRICTIONS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD LIFT ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNRISE BUT MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER IN LOCALIZED AREAS. MORE
ROUNDS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, LIKELY AFFECTING EVERY TAF SITE,
BUT THE LOWEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSRA ARE AT TLH AGAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
LIKELY EACH DAY, MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
A VERY WET PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES TODAY ARE OUTSIDE THE BIG BEND, BUT STILL NOT ZERO
THERE. WITH IT BEING DRIER THERE COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH, HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN BIG BEND TODAY. ELSEWHERE, FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT STILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY
WITH FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. TODAY'S PATTERN IS RATHER CONCERNING GIVEN CONVERGENT FLOW
SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH
VERY HIGH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS SETS UP THE POTENTIAL
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
HREF HAS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA; THE REFS HAS IT FARTHER NORTH IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT
DAYS OF RAINFALL, FLASH FLOODING APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN RECENT
DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 2-3 INCHES IN
THE WATCH AREA, WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 6-8 INCHES AS THE
REASONABLE HIGH END (10 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDANCE). THIS WOULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS OVER A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 IS
ABOUT 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR OR 2 TO 3.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS.
SOUTH OF I-10, IT RANGES FROM 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR OR 3.5
TO 5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE SOME REDUCTION IN CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT THE CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNS TO
OUR AREA. THIS COULD BRING A RENEWED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING THIS
WEEKEND.
ON THE RIVERINE FRONT, WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING IS STILL NOT
ANTICIPATED. BUT, SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS COULD REACH OR EXCEED
BANKFULL UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
OCHLOCKONEE BASIN WESTWARD. THE SHOAL RIVER AT MOSSY HEAD IS ONE OF
THOSE THAT MAY GET CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS,
ESPECIALLY IF HEAVIER RAINFALL FALLS OVER THE BASIN.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 87 72 87 72 / 30 10 30 10
PANAMA CITY 83 74 86 74 / 60 50 50 30
DOTHAN 82 69 84 69 / 90 30 70 20
ALBANY 85 69 85 69 / 90 20 60 20
VALDOSTA 89 70 89 70 / 50 10 50 10
CROSS CITY 91 72 91 72 / 20 30 20 20
APALACHICOLA 84 76 84 76 / 50 30 30 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ007>014-016-108-112-114-
326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ120>126-142>145-155>157.
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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