245
FXUS62 KTAE 030102
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
902 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 855 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
- MOSTLY DRY AND "COOLER" WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING
A FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WARMING TREND COMMENCES THURSDAY AND
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE AT THE FL PANHANDLE BEACHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 855 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS WON OUT AND THE UPDATE REFLECTS THIS WITH
LOWER POPS TONIGHT, AS WELL AS TEMPERED CHANCES FOR THUNDER, WHICH
ARE PRETTY LIMITED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND CONFINED TO
MAINLY CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST. THE KEY MESSAGES WERE ALSO UPDATED.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
AN INTERESTING SETUP TODAY AS ANOTHER FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD, BRINGING
DRIER AIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. WHILE MORE
PLEASANT CONDITIONS AWAIT, FIRST WE WILL HAVE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
AFTERNOON BETWEEN SEABREEZE INITIALIZATION AND INTERACTION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MIXED ON HOW MUCH OF THE AREA AND
HOW QUICKLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL REBOUND THIS AFTERNOON. THUS
WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC TODAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
STRONG PWAT GRADIENT IS INCHING CLOSER BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH
STILL AROUND 2 IN SE ALABAMA, AND ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
BIG BEND. THIS WILL HELP SET US UP FOR SOME EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS
THIS AFTERNOON. WHEN PAIRED WITH RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS, SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE UNDER SLOWER MOVING STORMS.
POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER, WITH LOWER RH
VALUES DROPPING APPARENT HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S,
FAIRLY IN LINE WITH THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES FOR A CHANGE. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INITIALLY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN US, KEEPING US IN A DRY
PATTERN AS WE GRADUALLY HEAT BACK UP. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO MAKE A
POSSIBLE RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND, BEGINNING TO CREEP INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT POST FRONTAL WE WILL BE EXPECTING STRONG
EASTERLY OFFSHORE WINDS, LEADING TO SOME POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALLER CRAFT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE TSRA HAS
STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
VLD FOR TSRA OVER THE NEXT 2-6 HOURS. THUS, HAVE PROB30S AT ALL
BUT VLD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON NEAR
20 KT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 855 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WINDS WILL FRESHEN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADVISORY LEVEL EASTERLIES FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AND
PERSIST IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. PRECEDING THE FRONT
WILL BE HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEABREEZE AND
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL OTHERWISE POSE A FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WIND THREAT. NORTHWEST WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND DECREASED RH
VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. POCKETS OF HIGH AFTERNOON
DISPERSIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 855 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
RECENT RAINFALL HAS INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE, BUT LONG TERM
DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN. AS OF MAY 28TH HOWEVER, THE LATEST
MONITOR SHOWS IMPROVEMENT ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER BASIN
WHERE D2 SEVERE DROUGHT IS NOW IN PLACE FROM ROUGHLY FROM ALBANY,
GA TO JUST WEST OF KECP IN BAY COUNTY, FL. EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE EAST. WE THEN DRY OUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
IN TERMS OF RIVERS, THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE BRUCE IS CRESTING IN
ACTION STAGE AND FORECAST TO FALL BELOW ACTION STAGE BY THURSDAY.
YESTERDAY'S LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROMPTED BRUCE CREEK NEAR RED BAY
TO SPIKE INTO ACTION STAGE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 92 67 83 61 / 40 20 10 0
PANAMA CITY 89 69 84 65 / 30 30 10 0
DOTHAN 89 65 79 57 / 60 30 0 0
ALBANY 87 63 79 55 / 30 30 0 0
VALDOSTA 90 64 82 57 / 30 20 0 0
CROSS CITY 94 68 84 61 / 50 30 10 0
APALACHICOLA 88 72 82 70 / 30 30 20 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ735.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM
EDT /4 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-
775.
UPDATE...LF
SHORT TERM...HUMPHREYS
LONG TERM....HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...HUMPHREYS/LF
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
HYDROLOGY...HUMPHREYS/LF
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