327
FXUS62 KTAE 051732
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
132 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
- DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR FROM TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE, AS WELL AS OVER FAR SOUTH GEORGIA AND LOWER ALABAMA.
ALLOW EXTRA TIME AND SLOW DOWN ON YOUR DRIVE THIS MORNING. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE BY 9 AM EDT, OR 8 AM CDT.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH THE
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. STORM CHANCES STARTING TUESDAY WILL THEN
DECREASE A LITTLE EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- THE STORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY
SEVERE, WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSISTENTLY RUN 2-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 107 DEGREES, MAINLY
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
THE AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY MOIST. SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD AXIS OF 2.4-INCH PWATS ACROSS LOWER ALABAMA AND
SOUTH GEORGIA, BLEEDING SOUTH OF THE FL STATE LINE. WITH SUCH RICH
MOISTURE, INCLUDING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S, AIR MASS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE DEVELOPING TODAY. COVERAGE MAY
BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN ON FRIDAY DUE TO LESS LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
LIFT, MOISTURE THIS RICH DOES NOT NEED A LOT OF LIFT TO WRING OUT
CONVECTION AND RAIN.
AT 2 AM EDT, POCKETS OF DENSE FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE PANHANDLE
AND LOWER ALABAMA, FOCUSING ON THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM TALLAHASSEE
WESTWARD. IN SUCH A MOIST AIR MASS IN SEPTEMBER AND AS SKIES ABOVE
ARE CLEARING, FOG WILL PROBABLY THICKEN FURTHER AND EXPAND OUT A
LITTLE MORE. HAVE STARTED WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH 9 AM, AND FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST GEORGIA ON SUNDAY, POSSIBLY AIDED BY A WARMING OF
THE AIR MASS OVER GA/AL ON SUNDAY, AS INDICATED BY LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES. ADDED HEAT IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BOOST INSTABILITY.
THE WET MICROBURST SEVERITY INDEX (WMSI) ALSO RISES ON SUNDAY TO
VALUES THAT WOULD BE HEFTY BY EVEN MID-SUMMER STANDARDS. SO STORMS
ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY STRONGER THAN ON SATURDAY, WITH
GREATER MICROBURST POTENTIAL TOO.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, A BACK-DOOR FRONT WILL BE WORKING DOWN THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD EASTERN GEORGIA. SEVERAL MODELS
INDICATE A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
BACK-DOOR FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL PROBABLY
BE ARRIVING IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SPREADING SOME DISTANCE FURTHER SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH GEORGIA
AND THE FL BIG BEND OVERNIGHT.
ON MONDAY, THAT BACK-DOOR FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHWEST THROUGH
OUT FORECAST AREA, ACTING AS A LARGER-SCALE FOCUS FOR MORE
ABUNDANT STORM COVERAGE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WMSI VALUES ACTUALLY
PEAK ON MONDAY, SUGGESTING PLENTY OF MICROBURST POTENTIAL.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST THROUGH OUR GULF WATERS EARLY
TUESDAY. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
ATLANTIC TROPICAL MARITIME INFLUENCE, MEANING THE SO-CALLED FRONT
WILL USHER IN A WIND SHIFT BUT OFFER NO REAL CHANGE TO THE LOW-
LEVEL AIR MASS. SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE MOIST ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A MORE LIMITED COVERAGE OF STORMS, THOUGH NORTHEAST FLOW
IS KNOWN FOR PINNING THE SEABREEZE AND THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY, SO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL NO
LONGER PIN THE SEABREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST. HOWEVER, UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BE HIGH, AND PW VALUES WILL FALL INTO MORE MARGINAL
RANGES FOR SUPPORTING DEEP, MOIST CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS FAVORING SE AL AND OUR FL COUNTIES. HAVE TEMPOS AND
PROB30 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS WELL AS SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN
HEAVIER CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT, IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH SE AL AND SW GA INCLUDING DHN-ABY-VLD FROM 10-14Z.
OTHERWISE, VFR TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY AND
LIGHT; PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS AROUND TSRA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
LIGHT AND GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. ON
MONDAY NIGHT, THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIDGE IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST, FORCING A SHIFT TO GENTLE AND MODERATE NORTHEAST
TO EAST BREEZES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE WATERS EACH MORNING,
BRINGING SUDDEN WIND GUSTS, LIGHTNING, AND POSSIBLY WATERSPOUTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH
TEMPERATURES PERSISTENTLY RUNNING 2-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER. THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A RECURRING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STORMS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE, WITH STRONG
DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY MOIST. THIS WILL
SUPPORT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING, SUNDAY MORNING, AND BEYOND FOR
OUR INLAND DISTRICTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
THROUGH MONDAY, FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SHORT-
LIVED NUISANCE VARIETY BENEATH HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
IMPACTING URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 92 75 94 75 / 50 20 50 50
PANAMA CITY 89 77 91 78 / 50 10 30 50
DOTHAN 92 74 95 74 / 60 20 50 50
ALBANY 93 75 96 73 / 40 10 60 60
VALDOSTA 92 74 94 73 / 30 20 60 70
CROSS CITY 90 75 92 75 / 70 10 30 50
APALACHICOLA 88 78 89 78 / 50 10 30 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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