427
FXUS62 KTAE 280634
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
234 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL AGGRAVATE CONCERNS FOR
IMPACTFUL WILDFIRES. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND
THE INLAND FL BIG BEND. OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED!
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. STRONG
NORTHERLY BREEZES TODAY WILL BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, AND A FEW GALE-FORCE
GUSTS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE GIVEN 925 MB
WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS. THE ONGOING DROUGHT COMBINED WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH FIRE
DANGER TODAY. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN IMPACTFUL WILDFIRES IN THE LAST
WEEK. PLEASE SPREAD THE MESSAGE TO AVOID OUTDOOR BURNING,
ESPECIALLY TODAY!
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO AROUND 80
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST
ON SUNDAY. IN THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE, OUR SURFACE
WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY,
FURTHER MOISTENING THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. WEAK AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF A FEW WEAK LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS, MAINLY ALONG AND INLAND
OF THE SEABREEZE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL AIR MASS MOISTENING
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT FOR THOSE
LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE ANY. MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST, PROMOTING A CONTINUED
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
STICK AROUND THE LOWER 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND RELATIVELY QUIET.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MORNING CLOCKS WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH, THEN
NORTHEAST TODAY, GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS. MVFR ALREADY OCCURING IN
AT ECP AND EXPECT BRIEF LIFR UNTIL THE FROPA. ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
WILL MOVE NE TO SW ACROSS MAINLY ABY-TLH-ECP LATE THIS AM THROUGH
THIS EVE. GUIDANCE STRONGLY HINTING AT MVFR CIGS VLD, WITH A LOWER
POTENTIAL AT ECP/TLH, AND THIS IS INCLUDED INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THE 06Z TAFS WAS TO INCLUDE RESTRICTIONS THIS
MORNING AT ECP, AND TO LOWER WIND GUSTS A BIT TODAY BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AROUND SUNSET AND SURGE EVEN
STRONGER THIS EVENING, WHEN A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
SUNDAY AND FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. IN RESPONSE, WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY, THEN MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
A CRITICAL COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL AGGRAVATE THE
FIRE ENVIRONMENT TODAY. NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT
TODAY WILL GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE BY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON, SPREADING FIRST ACROSS
GEORGIA DISTRICTS AROUND MIDDAY, THEN INTO OUR ALABAMA AND FLORIDA
COUNTIES MID-LATE AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA.
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL TURN EASTERLY, BRINGING MOISTER ATLANTIC-
INFLUENCED AIR ACROSS THE DISTRICTS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL FURTHER MOISTEN THE AIR MASS.
HOWEVER, ANY RAIN NEXT WEEK WILL BE SPOTTY AND NOT BE ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE MEANINGFUL RELIEF FROM THE DROUGHT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
NO MEANINGFUL DROUGHT RELIEF IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, BUT RAINFALL
WILL BE NEITHER WIDESPREAD NOR SIGNIFICANT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 54 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 77 57 75 61 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 72 50 73 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 70 48 75 54 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 72 51 75 55 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 80 54 78 58 / 10 0 0 10
APALACHICOLA 75 58 72 62 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR FLZ007>014-016>018-027-108-
112-326-426.
GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
AL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ751-752-770-
772.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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