776
FXUS62 KTAE 091325
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
925 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 901 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- ISAIAS WILL REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR SOUTHERN ALABAMA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
IMPACTS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY FROM ISAIAS WELL BEYOND THE FORECAST
CONE, PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE HURRICANE'S CENTER, INCLUDING THE
THREAT OF FLOODING RAIN, STORM SURGE, TORNADOES, AND WIND.
- FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, INCLUDING CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING.
CLOSER TO THE COAST, A LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE
FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORE. SEVERAL TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 901 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
CURRENTLY ISAIAS IS ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY
MOVING NNE AT 15 MPH. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOW AT 120 MPH AND IT HAS
BECOME A CATEGORY 3 OR MAJOR HURRICANE. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE
FORECAST AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS THIS
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE ISAIAS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE THE
WIND BECOMES HAZARDOUS. A REASONABLE EARLIEST ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IS LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST, WHICH WILL CLOSELY COINCIDE WITH RISING
WATER FROM STORM SURGE. DON'T FOCUS ON THE CENTER OF ISAIAS, AS
POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL EXTEND WELL BEYOND THE FORECAST CONE,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HURRICANE'S CENTER DUE TO AN EXPANDING WIND
FIELD. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE DETAILED BELOW:
1) FLOODING RAIN THREAT:
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF A
TRAINING N/S ORIENTED BAND SETS UP ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
BIG BEND, WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST. IF REALIZED, THE AFOREMENTIONED VALUES ARE
LIKELY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING AND SOME
RIVER FLOODING. LOCALIZED CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA.
HEED ANY FLOOD WARNINGS AND DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
4) STORM SURGE THREAT:
A STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FL PANHANDLE
AND BIG BEND COAST, WHERE THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, A PEAK STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE
NORMALLY DRY GROUND IS FORECAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PANHANDLE TO
INDIAN PASS, 4 TO 6 FEET FROM INDIAN PASS TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER,
AND 3 TO 5 FEET FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER. THE
GREATEST SURGE RISK WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, ALONG WITH
BATTERING WAVES. PLEASE FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS,
INCLUDING ANY EVACUATION ORDERS.
3) TORNADO THREAT:
ISAIAS WILL ALSO BRING A HEIGHTENED TORNADO RISK ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND SOUTHEAST
AL AND SOUTHWEST GA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE FROM OUTER AND TRAILING RAIN BANDS. TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS, SO ENSURE THAT YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO
RECEIVE WARNINGS, INCLUDING THOSE THAT WILL AWAKE YOU FROM SLEEP.
2) WIND THREAT:
GIVEN THE EXPECTED LARGE SIZE OF ISAIAS AS IT NEARS NORTHERN GULF
COAST, THE WIND THREAT SHOULD EXTEND WELL INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. AN EXPECTED FAST FORWARD SPEED WILL ALSO LEAD
TO THE WIND THREAT EXTENDING FURTHER INLAND, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
CORE OF THE STORM. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO LEAD TO SATURATED SOILS,
ALLOWING MORE TREES TO COME DOWN WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS
THAN TYPICAL. THUS, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TREE AND POWER LINE
DAMAGE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING
AREAS, WITH PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE.
HIGH SURF WILL ALSO LEAD TO BEACH EROSION ALONG THE COAST AND A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SUNNY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WINDS
OUT OF THE WEST WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. IN FACT, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH HIGHS WARMING WELL
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE GOOD FOR
RECOVERY EFFORTS, IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND A BIT HUMID,
SO THE HEAT MAY BE MORE IMPACTFUL TO SENSITIVE POPULATIONS.
THIS INCLUDES THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING DUE TO POWER
OUTAGES, WORKING OUTDOORS, ETC.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF HURRICANE ISAIAS
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT ALONG THE AL OR FL
PANHANDLE COAST. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY ALONG
WITH RA CHANCES WHILE CIGS DECREASE TO MVFR W/HEAVY RA LEADING
TO IFR. IF SURFACE WINDS BECOME ANY MORE DIRECTIONALLY BACKED
THAN FORECAST, THEN LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MIGHT NEED A MENTION IN
THE TAFS. AS ISAIAS MOVES INLAND TONIGHT, WINDS CLOCK AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LOCKED IN ALONG WITH
RA CONTINUING. A TORNADO THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE THIS EVENING,
PARTICULARLY WITH DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM CELLS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
AS OF 5 AM EDT, THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WAS LOCATED ABOUT
200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ISAIAS HAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 MPH AND WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY
WITH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ISAIAS WILL
REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE DESPITE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OUT TO 20 NAUTICAL MILES, A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MEXICO BEACH TO THE OKALOOSA-WALTON
COUNTY LINE, AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS EAST MEXICO BEACH TO THE SUWANEE RIVER.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING, INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS. EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE
HAZARDOUS SEAS WHICH WILL LIKELY CAPSIZE OR DAMAGE VESSELS AND
SEVERELY REDUCE VISIBILITY. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT, ALTER
COURSE, AND/OR SECURE THE VESSEL FOR EXTREME CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY FOR RECOVERY EFFORTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TODAY AS HURRICANE ISAIAS APPROACHES
THE REGION, WITH INCREASING WIND AND RAIN CHANGES. DAMAGING WINDS
AND FLOODING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOKING AHEAD,
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
WITH SUNNY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR SOUTHERN
ALABAMA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY, GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A MODERATE (LEVEL 3 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO THE FL BIG BEND, EXTENDING INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHWEST GA. ELSEWHERE, THERE IS A
SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN BANDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. IF
REALIZED, THESE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
FLASH FLOODING AND SOME RIVER FLOODING. LOCALIZED CONSIDERABLE FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVE REPEATEDLY
OVER THE SAME AREA.
GIVEN THESE FACTORS, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR, THE FL BIG BEND, AND EASTERN FL
BIG BEND FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 76 72 82 69 / 100 100 90 40
PANAMA CITY 79 73 81 71 / 100 90 50 20
DOTHAN 74 65 79 63 / 100 100 70 20
ALBANY 74 67 80 67 / 90 100 100 50
VALDOSTA 77 70 83 70 / 90 90 90 50
CROSS CITY 83 73 86 74 / 90 70 70 80
APALACHICOLA 81 75 82 73 / 100 80 70 40
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLZ009>017-027-114-115-118-127-326-
426.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-
118-127-128-134-326-426.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR FLZ007-008-108-112.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR FLZ018.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
STORM SURGE WARNING FOR FLZ108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ108-112.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR FLZ114-
115.
GA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GAZ121-142-143-155-156.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GAZ120-122>127-144>146-157-158.
AL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALZ065>069.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ730-752-755-765-775.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR GMZ735-751-770-772.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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