435
FXUS62 KTAE 181352
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
952 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA,
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. HIGH RAIN RATES
AND TRAINING BANDS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF DANGEROUS TO
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
TODAY AND FRIDAY GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF A PANAMA CITY TO
ASHBURN LINE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
- A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH QUICK SPIN-UPS IN SOME RAIN BANDS. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER (LEVEL 2 OF 5) EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 5) OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY FOR THE WALTON, BAY, AND GULF COUNTY BEACHES.
HIGH SURF IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE WALTON AND BAY COUNTY
BEACHES. IT IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF ON HIGH
RISK DAYS. PLEASE HEED THE BEACH FLAGS AND ADVICE OF LOCAL
OFFICIALS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE CONTINUING TO EXPAND EASTWARD. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FOR TODAY, AS THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA, WE WILL LIKELY HAVE BANDS OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA. THESE
TRAINING BANDS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AS THEY MOVE NORTHWARD
OR NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE, WHERE A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. WITH PWATS IN
THE 2.2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS IN THE TROPICAL AIR MASS AND COULD
PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WPC HAS A
MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE FLINT AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS WITH
A SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK FARTHER TO THE EAST. THIS IS
RELATIVELY RARE FOR OUR AREA AND SIGNALS THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS. THIS
POSSIBILITY LINGERS INTO TONIGHT AS WELL.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY GIVEN
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WITH THE NEARBY
REMNANT OF ARTHUR. A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE
BANDS AS WELL AS SOME GUSTY WINDS. THE SPC HAS UPGRADED A PORTION
OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2 OF 5) TODAY WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 5) FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ON THE BEACHES, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE WITH BUILDING
SURF. SURF HEIGHTS OF 6 FEET ARE PROBABLE ON THE WALTON AND BAY
COUNTY BEACHES TODAY, AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE BEACHES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BY FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINKING TOWARD THE GULF
COAST, AND WE WILL STILL HAVE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
THUS, THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER MODERATE RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 3 OF 4) ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
THE INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ALSO, WE'LL CONTINUE A THREAT OF
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO ON FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWS ITS APPROACH
TO THE GULF COAST. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT STILL A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES. WE'LL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY UPSTREAM MCS'S THAT RIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. GIVEN THE LIKELY WET GROUND AT THIS POINT
OF THE FORECAST, ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.
THE FRONT DISSIPATES HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
FINALLY DECREASE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. RIDGING WILL BUILD OFF TO
OUR WEST NEXT WEEK, AND OUR TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT BACK UP TO THE
LOW TO MID 90S. GIVEN THE VERY WET CONDITIONS, IT WILL LIKELY BE
QUITE HUMID, AND HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CIGS AT DHN/ECP THIS
MORNING WILL ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS TLH/VLD
THIS MORNING, EXCEPT ECP WHERE THEY WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE S-SW BY LATE MORNING
AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS, AND WHILE WE LOOSE
THE GUSTINESS AROUND 00Z, SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WATERS WITH ADVISORY-
LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
OVER THE GULF WEST OF APALACHICOLA WITH CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS
EAST. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, BECOMING
GENTLE TO MODERATE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5 TO 7 FEET TODAY, THEN SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FEET THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THICK
CLOUD COVER, AND WETTING RAINS. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. TRAINING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN A
TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
BEGINNING TODAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE AREA IS AROUND 2.5-3.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR OR 3-4 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS, LOWEST ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
FLINT AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS. THIS COINCIDES WITH WPC'S MODERATE
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 3 OF 4). IT'S RELATIVELY RARE
FOR OUR AREA TO HAVE A MODERATE RISK OUTLINED IN OUR AREA. THIS
INDICATES EITHER NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODS OR SOME SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. WHILE WIDESPREAD TOTALS IN THE FLOOD WATCH
AREA WILL BE AROUND 3-7 INCHES, SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS UNDER
TRAINING BANDS COULD SEE 8-12 INCHES (10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING
TOTALS HIGHER THAN THIS). IF THIS FALLS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME,
THEN CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
FARTHER EAST, WHILE THE THREAT OF CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING IS
LOWER, SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE AS THE
STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN. BUT,
THE CONCENTRATION OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MORE SCATTERED.
FRIDAY'S RISK IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE REMNANTS OF
ARTHUR WILL HAVE MOVED ON, BUT A FRONT WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. OUR GROUND WILL ALSO BE PRETTY SATURATED
AT THIS POINT, SO WE WILL BE RATHER SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING. THUS, THE MODERATE RISK CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE RISKS
DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
ON THE RIVER SIDE, RISES INTO ACTION STAGE AND PERHAPS MINOR FLOOD
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PEA, CHOCTAWHATCHEE, AND SHOAL RIVER BASINS.
A RISE TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF BANDS TRAIN
OVER A PARTICULAR RIVER BASIN, PARTICULARLY FOR THE SHOAL RIVER AT
MOSSY HEAD IN WALTON COUNTY. OTHERWISE, MOST OTHER RIVERS COULD
RISE TO ACTION STAGE, BUT RIVER FLOODING OUTSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BASINS IS NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 89 77 89 75 / 60 50 80 40
PANAMA CITY 86 79 88 78 / 70 60 60 30
DOTHAN 83 74 85 73 / 90 90 90 60
ALBANY 87 74 84 73 / 90 90 90 60
VALDOSTA 90 77 88 74 / 60 50 80 50
CROSS CITY 93 79 90 76 / 30 10 60 40
APALACHICOLA 87 82 88 79 / 30 20 40 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ007>013-108-112.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ108-112.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ115.
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ120>128-142>145-155-
156.
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ751-752-770-
772.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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