502
FXUS62 KTAE 032312
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
712 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
- GENERALLY DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE
WATERS.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US TODAY WILL SLOWLY START TO SLIDE
EASTWARD LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, TURNING EASTERLY WINDS
SOUTHEASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY. AS THE FLOW
HAS AN INCREASINGLY ONSHORE COMPONENT, MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS WELL. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, EXPECT
MOISTURE RECOVERY TO BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST, PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND
FLINT RIVERS. POPS RETURN TO THE REST OF THE AREA HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S TODAY TO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE AREA, GOING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TONIGHT TO THE LOW/MID
70S AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
ARE SETTLING DOWN FOR THE EVENING, BUT GUSTS OF 15-20 KT RETURN
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR SO
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FAIRLY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
BREEZY TRANSPORT WINDS AND HIGH DAYTIME MIXING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO
HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT. EASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND, WITH RAIN
CHANCES STARTING TO CREEP BACK UP AGAIN WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA/FLINT RIVERS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DESPITE DRY
CONDITIONS, HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED UNTIL THIS WEEKEND.
RECENT RAINFALL HAS INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE, BUT LONG-TERM
DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN. AS OF MAY 28TH HOWEVER, THE LATEST
MONITOR SHOWS IMPROVEMENT ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER BASIN
WHERE D2 SEVERE DROUGHT IS NOW IN PLACE FROM ROUGHLY FROM ALBANY,
GA TO JUST WEST OF KECP IN BAY COUNTY, FL. EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE EAST.
IN TERMS OF RIVERS, THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE BRUCE IS CRESTING IN
ACTION STAGE AND FORECAST TO FALL BELOW ACTION STAGE LATE THURSDAY
OR EARLY FRIDAY. BRUCE CREEK NEAR RED BAY HAS CRESTED IN ACTION
STAGE WITH LEVELS CURRENTLY DROPPING. THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE
RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITES:
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 84 60 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 85 65 87 69 / 20 0 0 0
DOTHAN 79 57 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 79 55 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 82 56 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 85 59 88 63 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 83 70 83 74 / 20 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ730-755-765-
775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ751-752-770-
772.
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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