471
FXUS62 KTAE 212358
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
758 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
- TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SQUALLY WEATHER
FROM THE COASTAL TO INLAND COUNTIES VIA OUTER RAINBANDS INTO
TOMORROW. THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE GUSTY WINDS (TROPICAL STORM
FORCE AT TIMES), HEAVY RAIN, RIP CURRENTS, ROUGH SURF, MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.
- TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH WALTON TO COASTAL
BAY COUNTY AND WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA WHERE TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WITHIN STRONGER RAINBANDS.
- MINOR COASTAL (SALTWATER) FLOODING IS EXPECTED ACROSS APALACHEE BAY
AND THE FL PANHANDLE COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THE WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 8AM EDT FROM COASTAL GULF TO THE COASTAL
FRANKLIN-JEFFERSON BORDER FOR GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE JUL 21
2026
AS OF 2PM EDT, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED 90
MI SW OF PANAMA CITY ON A SLOW GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH. ALTHOUGH BERTHA HAS A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION, IT IS BROAD AND DISPLACED FROM DEEPER CONVECTION TO
ITS SOUTH THANKS TO NORTHERLY SHEAR. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST. OUTER RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO PERIODICALLY MOVE ASHORE
WITH EMBEDDED CELLS PRODUCING STRONG-GUSTY WINDS, TROPICAL
DOWNPOURS, AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO. WE WILL MONITOR
ADDITIONAL RAINBAND FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN FREQUENT TROPICAL STORM
FORCE GUSTS ALONG THE COAST (40-50 MPH), MINOR COASTAL (SALTWATER)
FLOODING, DANGEROUS SURF, AND VERY ROUGH SEAS. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO TOMORROW.
THE TROPICAL THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
BERTHA PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM US WHILE ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND. THE AXIS OF GREATEST PRECIPITATION FOCUSES ALONG/WEST OF
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER WHERE OUTER RAINBANDS WITHIN BERTHA'S
EASTERN QUADRANT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TOMORROW IS LIKELY TO BE THE LAST ROUND OF
SQUALLY WEATHER FROM THIS ACTIVITY, SO THE AFOREMENTIONED HAZARDS
SHOULD PERSIST, BUT SHIFT WESTWARD.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHILE
HIGHS CLIMB TO THE LOW 90S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE
JUL 21 2026
OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPROVES TO START THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WITH
ONLY LOW-END RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE WIREGRASS REGION, IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A NEIGHBORING FRONT TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHEN DIURNAL SEABREEZE-DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS COME BACK INTO
PLAY. HAZARDOUS HEAT IS ALSO LIKELY TO BECOME A CONCERN AS HEAT
INDICES ARE POISED TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE 100 DEGREES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
BROAD AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WINDS
SHIFT TO MORE OF A SE/S COMPONENT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPEEDS
SHOULD LESSEN AS WELL OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK, ANY ONGOING MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING, THOUGH SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS WHAT WE OBSERVED
TUESDAY AS TS BERTHA WILL BE MOVING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, MOSTLY ACROSS ECP/DHN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
AS OF 2PM EDT, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED 90
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY WITH MAX SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60
MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WATERS WEST OF
APALACHICOLA. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO PERIODICALLY MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS THE THROUGH TOMORROW AND BE CAPABLE OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS AND GUSTS, WATERSPOUTS, HEAVY RAIN, AND VERY
HIGH SEAS. ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
THERE ARE MINIMAL FIRE CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS THANKS, IN
PART TO TROPICAL STORM BERTHA, LOCATED 90 MI SW OF PANAMA CITY AS
OF 2PM EDT. EXPECT SQUALLY WEATHER CONSISTING OF ON/OFF SHOWERS &
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TO ALONG/WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST TOMORROW. A
FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH SHIFTS RAIN CHANCES TO THE
WIREGRASS REGION TO CONCLUDE THE WORK WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
RAINBANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY - E.G., POTENTIALLY
QUICK 1-2 INCHES (ISOLATED 4 INCHES). SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE, BUT NOTHING OF MUCH SIGNIFICANCE.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE JEFFERSON-
THROUGH WALTON COUNTY. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN APALACHEE BAY
PRODUCED 2-2.5 FT OF INUNDATION EARLIER TODAY WITH OBSERVED
FLOODING IN THE PANHANDLE (AROUND 2 FT AT PANAMA CITY BEACH) THIS
AFTERNOON DURING LOW TIDE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL RISES DURING THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THESE
VALUES/OBSERVATIONS TYPICALLY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
BEACH ACCESS ROADS AND OTHER COASTAL ADJACENT PROPERTIES IN
APALACHEE BAY AND BEACH ACCESS AREAS INTO PARKING LOTS AND SOME
LOW-LYING ROADS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE PANHANDLE.
AS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD DROP ENOUGH WHERE
ADVISORIES ARE NO LONGER NECESSARY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. SPOTTERS SHOULD SAFELY REPORT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND/OR DAMAGE BY CALLING THE
OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 77 90 76 92 / 20 50 10 20
PANAMA CITY 78 88 79 89 / 50 70 40 20
DOTHAN 75 90 75 92 / 10 60 20 20
ALBANY 76 92 75 93 / 0 40 10 20
VALDOSTA 76 93 74 94 / 0 10 0 10
CROSS CITY 77 93 75 94 / 10 10 0 10
APALACHICOLA 80 87 80 88 / 40 70 20 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115-118-127.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-
112-114-115.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR FLZ108-
112-114.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLZ108-112.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ114-115-
127.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ735-751-752-770-772.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ730-755-765-
775.
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
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