302  
FXUS62 KTAE 151715  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
115 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019  
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY]  
 
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF  
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN TSRA AT TLH AND VLD PRIOR TO 00Z,  
AND AROUND 10Z IN BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AT VLD. WINDS MAINLY  
AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [1001 AM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]
 
 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH SUBSIDENCE  
ALOFT AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS VIA THE REMNANTS OF BARRY. THERE WILL BE  
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING BUT WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER  
SUNRISE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS  
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEABREEZE WITH MOST LOCALS REMAINING DRY. RAIN  
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20-30%. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND  
EXPECTING MID 90S ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT  
INDICES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OVER THE CENTURY MARK.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]
 
 
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES WITH BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL RAINFALL CHANCES. ISOLATED  
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA  
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR WEDNESDAY, MODELS SHOW INCREASING  
MOISTURE OVER OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES SO POPS WILL BE TAPERED SLIGHT  
(20%) TO CHANCE (30-50%) EAST. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID  
TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES. LOWS WILL  
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]
 
 
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF  
THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  
DESPITE THE RIDGING ALOFT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY  
INCREASE AND SO WILL DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL  
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID  
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH  
TYPICAL AFTERNOON ENHANCEMENTS IN WINDS AND CHOP NEAR THE COAST EACH  
AFTERNOON.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ASIDE FROM HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE TRI-  
STATE AREA, HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER  
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RHS REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND 20  
FOOT WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
BELOW AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH MORE  
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME RAIN CHANCES BY MID-WEEK. WIDESPREAD AVERAGE  
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LOW, HOWEVER, TYPICAL SUMMER STORMS CARRY  
WITH THEM THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK 1-2" OF RAIN ANY GIVEN DAY.  
THE FLOODING THREAT REMAINS LOW.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 95 73 97 74 95 / 30 30 20 10 40  
PANAMA CITY 90 76 91 77 90 / 10 10 20 10 20  
DOTHAN 93 72 95 73 95 / 30 30 20 10 20  
ALBANY 95 74 96 75 95 / 10 10 20 10 30  
VALDOSTA 96 73 97 74 95 / 20 20 30 30 40  
CROSS CITY 94 74 95 74 94 / 30 30 30 30 40  
APALACHICOLA 90 75 91 77 91 / 10 10 20 10 20  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-  
COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...SCHOLL  
SHORT TERM...BARRY  
LONG TERM...BARRY  
AVIATION...LF  
MARINE...BARRY  
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL  
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab FL Page
The Nexlab GA Page
The Nexlab AL Page Main Text Page