887
FXUS62 KTAE 140611
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
111 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
- BENEFICIAL RAIN IS ON THE WAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH (60 TO 80
PERCENT) CHANCE OF GREATER THAN ONE INCH WITH A LOW (30 PERCENT)
CHANCE OF GREATER THAN TWO INCHES OF RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREAT, BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF, ALONG WITH A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
YET ANOTHER TRANQUIL AFTERNOON IS IN THE OFFERING TODAY.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY, BRINGING MORE SURFACE
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A BIT MORE
FOG LATER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN GEORGIA COUNTIES TO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO BARREL THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN, BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS FOR OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.
A CLOSER INSPECTION OF SUNDAY'S SETUP SHOWS A POTENT H5 TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. COMBINE THAT WITH A 40 TO 55 KNOT LOW-
LEVEL JET (LLJ) AT 850MB, DEEP-LAYER SHARE OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS, AND 0-
1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY (SRH) IN EXCESS OF 150 M2/S2 MEANS THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR. ON THE INSTABILITY FRONT, MUCAPE IS
FORECAST TO BE 500-1000 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE RACING
THROUGH THE REGION. IN OTHER WORDS, A HIGH-SHEAR/LOW-CAPE EVENT.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, BUT A TORNADO OR TWO
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SOMETHING TO NOTE HERE IS THAT WHILE CAPE MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR
RIGHT NOW, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY TO INCREASE MORE
THAN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. ESPECIALLY IF ANY MORNING FOG LIFTS AND
DISSIPATES A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN, THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD
INCREASE AS HODOGRAPHS AHEAD OF THE LINE ARE QUITE CURVED AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AMOUNT OF SHEAR OVER THE REGION. SO IF
TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80, THEN
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THAT AREA WOULD INCREASE. THAT SAID,
THERE'S A VERY LOW (LESS THAN 5%) CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING AT THIS
TIME. BUT IT'S SOMETHING WE'LL MONITOR CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS.
THE ROUGH TIME-LINE OF WHEN TO EXPECT THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS BETWEEN 8AM TO 2PM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BETWEEN 11AM EST TO 6PM EST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THAT'S FOR THE MAIN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THERE'S ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO FOLLOWING THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE
H5 CLOSED LOW TRAVERSES OVERHEAD. A CORRIDOR OF BETTER INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FOLLOWING THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS SUNDAY AND
AHEAD OF THE CLOSED H5 LOW. COMBINE THIS WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINING AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS AND 0-1KM SRH OF 100 TO 150 M2/S2
AND 0-3KM CAPE ABOVE 90 J/KG AND THERE'S THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS FOLLOWING THE MAIN LINE. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL WANE IN INTENSITY FOLLOWING SUNSET.
ANOTHER THING TO MENTION TOO IS THAT STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS
AT 925MB INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY. WHILE WE DON'T EXPLICITLY HAVE GUSTS TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, OR 40 MPH OR GREATER, IN THE FORECAST, IT'S
VERY POSSIBLE IF WE SEE MORE SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
EITHER WAY, IT'LL STILL BE BREEZY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO
35 MPH AHEAD OF THE LINE.
MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION MONDAY AND MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN H5 RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SPORADIC 80 DEGREE HIGHS BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH SOME PASSING UPPER CIRRUS
OVERHEAD. LIGHT EAST WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SE 5-7 KTS THIS AFTN. ANY
OVERNIGHT FOG AIMS TO FOCUS OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY SOUTH & EAST OF
TLH/VLD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF LATER SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
EXITING SUNDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. MORE FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BRINGING
MORE SURFACE MOISTURE TO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THAT SAID, LOW MINRH VALUES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF OUR
GEORGIA DISTRICTS TODAY, WHERE MINRH IS FORECAST TO DROP BETWEEN 25
TO 35 PERCENT AGAIN. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A WETTING RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND
1", BUT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD TOP 2" OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN BEFORE THE
SYSTEM EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. POCKETS OF LOW
DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. HIGH
DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO SOUTHERN
GEORGIA SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINRH
VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 TO 50 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
|MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND. MOST LIKELY RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.0" TO 1.5", ALTHOUGH A SWATH OF 2" OR
MORE REMAINS POSSIBLE. IT'S ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT JUST TO KEEP PACE
WITH NORMAL RAINFALL THIS TIME OF YEAR, WE NEED ABOUT 1" TO 1.25" OF
RAIN EVERY WEEK. SO WHILE THIS RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL, IT'S NOT
LIKELY TO PUT A DENT IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.
ON THE COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL, THE REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO,
OR 10% CHANCE OF HAPPENING, PETSS GUIDANCE HAS WATER LEVELS
APPROACHING 2 FT MHHW. AGAIN, THIS IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WINDS
REMAINING SOUTHERLY INTO HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH ISN'T A
CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 74 54 70 57 / 0 20 100 60
PANAMA CITY 71 56 70 57 / 0 50 100 50
DOTHAN 71 54 70 56 / 0 50 100 60
ALBANY 70 53 70 55 / 0 30 100 70
VALDOSTA 74 55 76 57 / 0 10 90 80
CROSS CITY 78 55 77 57 / 0 10 80 80
APALACHICOLA 63 56 67 57 / 0 30 100 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ735.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ751-752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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