358
FXUS62 KTAE 171022
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
622 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF TWO FEATURES TODAY: A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A 593
DAM RIDGE TO OUR EAST. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT IN
MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5-1.7 INCHES OVER THE BIG BEND AND
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA UP TO 1.7-1.9 INCHES WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER.
THUS, RAIN CHANCES WILL EXHIBIT A SIMILAR GRADIENT, RANGING FROM 20-
30% TO THE EAST UP TO 50-70% WEST OF THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DCAPE VALUES IN THE 700-900 J/KG RANGE, WHICH IS
ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY DOWNBURSTS. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE TOASTY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S WEST TO THE MID 90S EAST. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100-105. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-70S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MORE MISS THAN HIT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, OR MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. HEAT INDICES
WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUT FLORIDA COUNTIES, BOTH AFTERNOONS.
THIS THANKS TO A 592DM H5 RIDGE NUDGING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC,
HELPING TO SQUASH RAIN CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE'S
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS BETWEEN 1000-700MB THAT
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH AFTERNOONS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES. A BIT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON, HELPING TO
NUDGE RAIN CHANCES UP EVER SO SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY GUSTY WINDS THANKS TO DCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000-1100 J/KG. A BIT MORE MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR VERY GUSTY WINDS A BIT
THANKS TO DCAPE VALUES CLOSER TO 600-800 J/KG.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING OUR GEORGIA AND ALABAMA COUNTIES DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE H5 TROUGH PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH WILL
BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT FRIDAY, SO THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE ULTIMATE LOCATION OF
THE STALLING FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WASHES OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BIG OLE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO TAKE OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THIS RIDGE MEANS WE'LL BE UNDER
ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE SEE
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL
APPROACH 105 ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE AREA WITH A FEW SPOTS
LIKELY TO EXCEED 108 DEGREES, OR OUR CRITERIA FOR ISSUING HEAT
ADVISORIES, WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR FOR US.
AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES ARE CONCERNED, THEY'RE STILL THERE EACH
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEABREEZE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. INTERESTINGLY, THERE WILL BE A FEW VORTICITY MAXIMA
ROTATING FROM EAST TO WEST UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA.
COMBINE THIS WITH A SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS AND THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE MAY HAVE A BIT MORE OOMPH TO
IT NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS SOMETHING WE'LL
WATCH AS THE MEAN 1000-700MB FLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE EAST
WITH A FEW SURGES OF LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH. THIS HAS KEPT RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
SOME PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE PRESENT AROUND VLD AND ABY
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD LAST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. ISOLATED
SHRA HAS ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR ECP AND TLH, MOVING NORTHWARD. EXPECT
AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS
SPOTTY ENOUGH TODAY THAT ONLY USED PROB30S FOR ALL BUT DHN. AT
DHN, CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER, SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP WITH
PREVAILING VCTS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG OR STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THANKS TO A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE HIGH GETS PUSHED
SOUTH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING MORE WESTERLY BREEZES TO
TAKE OVER. DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS PRECLUDE ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH. THE WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT MIXING HEIGHTS WILL
INCREASE, RESULTING IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
DESPITE SOMEWHAT LOWER RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS REMAIN A CONCERN THANKS TO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING THE 50TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-LATE JUNE. SOME QUICK PONDING
ON THE ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 92 73 92 74 / 30 0 50 10
PANAMA CITY 89 78 89 78 / 30 10 50 20
DOTHAN 91 73 92 73 / 50 0 40 10
ALBANY 93 73 93 74 / 30 10 30 10
VALDOSTA 94 73 94 73 / 20 10 40 10
CROSS CITY 93 72 93 73 / 30 10 40 10
APALACHICOLA 87 78 88 78 / 20 10 40 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...YOUNG
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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