188
FXUS62 KTAE 212339
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
739 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
- SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE OR WORSEN WITH
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL AND A WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
- HAZE AND SMOKE MAY PRESENT ISSUES FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE
RESPIRATORY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO PRESCRIBED
BURNS AND WILDFIRES. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAY
FEATURE THE POOREST AIR QUALITY.
- WARM AND FAIR WEATHER WILL MAKE BEACHES ATTRACTIVE. BE AWARE OF
WHAT BEACH FLAGS ARE FLYING AND WHAT THEY MEAN WITH RESPECT TO
RIP CURRENTS IF VISITING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
NO FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. A WEAK FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BUT NO RAIN
IS TO BE FOUND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WILL BE NIGHTLY FOG, DAYTIME HAZE, AND ELEVATED FIRE
CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY. THE DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE
INLAND, MOISTENING UP THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN FOG
TONIGHT IS MOSTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA COUNTIES WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
FARTHER NORTH, AND SIMILARLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. IF FOG DEVELOPS NEAR
TO PRESCRIBED BURNS AND WILDFIRES, THE COMBINATION OF FOG AND SMOKE
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY IN LOCALIZED SPOTS, CREATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR "SUPER FOG."
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, SMOKE FROM PRESCRIBED BURNS AND WILDFIRES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX OUT, GIVING US HAZY SUNSHINE THROUGH MONDAY.
ONCE AGAIN, HAVE INCLUDED HAZE IN OUR GRIDS AS A PROXY FOR THE MIXED
OUT SMOKE. HOWEVER, DURING THE EVENINGS AND MORNINGS, THE SMOKE MAY
SETTLE, CAUSING REDUCTIONS IN AIR QUALITY. THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE
TO SMOKE AND POLLUTANTS, SUCH AS THOSE WITH CHRONIC RESPIRATORY
ILLNESSES, SHOULD USE CAUTION IF OUTDOORS.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE QUITE WARM DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S FOR MOST EVERYONE. A FEW POCKETS OF UPPER 80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN INLAND SPOTS. THIS WON'T BE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT AS RECORDS ARE
IN THE LOW 90S. THE LOW HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR COMFORTABLE NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND WE MAY
BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A COUPLE SHOWERS, MOSTLY OVER OUR GEORGIA AND
BIG BEND COUNTIES. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AROUND 30% OR LESS.
RIDGING BUILDS IN AGAIN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONT
WASHING OUT.
TUESDAY'S TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TRICKY WITH A BIT OF A COLD AIR
WEDGE AND SOME COOLER AIR COMING FROM THE ATLANTIC. WE'LL HAVE A
GOOD BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND TOO THROUGH THE DAY. NBM HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND LOWER FOR TUESDAY FOR OUR GEORGIA AND BIG BEND
COUNTIES, AND I EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. WE JUST GOT INTO
RANGE OF THE NAM, WHICH NORMALLY PERFORMS BETTER IN THESE
SITUATIONS, AND IT IS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN NBM RIGHT NOW, BY
ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES. FOR NOW, OUR FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM NEAR 70
IN OUR NORTHEASTERN MOST COUNTIES TO THE LOW 80S IN THE FL AND AL
COUNTIES. AS MORE HI-RES GUIDANCE COMES IN, THESE HIGHS MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED FURTHER, ESPECIALLY EAST OF A DOTHAN-TALLAHASSEE-CROSS
CITY LINE.
BEYOND TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING RETURNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY
AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, YET
AGAIN WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SHALLOW FOG OR LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY TRY TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT TLH AND ECP WHERE SEABREEZE MOISTURE THIS
AFTERNOON HAS HELPED TO MOISTEN THE AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE. ANY
FOG OR LOW STRATUS WILL BE SHALLOW AND READILY BURN OFF ABOUT 1-2
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, WILDFIRES AND/OR PRESCRIBED
BURNS ARE ADDING QUITE A BIT OF SMOKE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL
LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, CREATE SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT, AND SUPPORT
A MORE REGIONAL-SCALE HAZE, EVEN WHERE VSBYS REMAIN ABOVE 6SM.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE WESTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY
ACROSS THE WATERS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS TURN NORTHERLY THEN EASTERLY ON
TUESDAY, GENERALLY REMAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY.
LITTLE IMPACT TO MARINERS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY TO
10-20 MPH. COMBINED WITH HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS OF 4-5 KFT, DISPERSIONS
WILL BE HIGH ACROSS INLAND AREAS SUNDAY. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS, BUT STILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S DURING THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE DAILY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND, MAINLY ENHANCING THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS
IT PASSES THROUGH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA, WITH
TRANSPORT WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT, THEN NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY AROUND 10-20 MPH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE COASTAL PANHANDLE ZONES WHERE WINDS MAY STAY WESTERLY
THANKS TO THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. DISPERSIONS WILL BE GOOD
TUESDAY GIVEN MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER. A COUPLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. DROUGHT REMAINS
OUR ONLY HYDROLOGIC CONCERN. SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT IMPACTS,
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 56 84 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 61 77 62 77 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 56 84 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 54 85 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 54 86 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 53 82 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 60 75 62 74 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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