122
FXUS62 KTAE 190705
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
205 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
- FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS LINGERING INTO THE
MORNING COMMUTE. WHERE FOG MIXES WITH SMOKE, EXPECT VERY
RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES IN LOCALIZED SPOTS. USE CAUTION IF
DRIVING DURING LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING HOURS. SLOW DOWN,
LEAVE EXTRA SPACE, AND TURN ON HEADLIGHTS.
- NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND/OR GET WORSE ACROSS
THE REGION.
SHORT AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AS THIS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER IT WILL STEADILY
LOSE STEAM AS FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH LEAVING
ONLY ISOLATED, IF WE'RE LUCKY, CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS THIS FIRST FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE UNTIL ANOTHER FRONT POSSIBLY MOVES IN
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE INCREASED
CHANCES FOR FOG IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND FLT
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AT ECP/DHN/TLH, SOME OF WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE
DENSE AT TIMES. AT ECP, THERE IS THE ADDED COMPLEXITY OF SMOKE FROM
AN EARLIER FIRE THAT HAS SETTLED TO THE SFC. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT
"SUPER FOG" AFFECTS THE TERMINAL THRU SUNRISE WITH VSBYS/CIGS AT OR
NEAR AIRPORT MINIMUMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z, FOLLOWED BY
LGT/VRB WINDS OR WESTERLIES AROUND 5 KTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/LOW
STRATUS IS EXPECTED NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
LIGHT AND GENTLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST
AND A LOW CENTER APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY,
SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
RESULT IN NEAR-SHORE MARINE FOG LATER IN THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS. THE PROBABILITIES WOULD BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE
APALACHEE BAY WHERE COOLER SHELF WATERS COULD RESULT IN SOME SEA
FOG FORMATION LATER IN THE WEEK. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. LOW DISPERSIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES DUE
TO LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. MIN RHS WILL
BE A FEW POINTS HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS.
THIS SHOULD TEMPER THE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WE'VE SEEN THE LAST FEW
DAYS.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, TRANSPORT WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING RH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT THURSDAY, BUT INCREASE
TO 10-15 MPH ON FRIDAY. DISPERSIONS WILL BE LOW NEAR THE COAST STILL
ON THURSDAY, BUT WILL BE GOOD INLAND. DISPERSIONS BECOME GOOD
AREAWIDE FRIDAY WITH SOME HIGH DISPERSIONS OVER SOUTH GEORGIA.
DESPITE INCREASING RH THIS WEEKEND, DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD STILL ALLOW ANY NEW FIRE TO EASILY START
AND SPREAD SO SOME FIRE CONCERNS WILL REMAIN.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ZERO, DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE PERSIST AND/OR WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 82 57 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 77 60 78 61 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 82 58 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 82 56 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 83 55 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 83 52 84 52 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 73 58 74 60 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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