534
FXUS62 KTAE 040056
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
856 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 856 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY THANKS TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 856 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES
WERE NECESSARY.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
THE MAIN TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY IN THE FORECAST IS THE NEXT COLD
FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE ON LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTY PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. PRIOR TO THAT, A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER W/ TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NORTHWEST OF THE FL BIG BEND ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO, ANOTHER COOL MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST ON MONDAY.
ON THURSDAY, SEASONABLY HIGH SHEAR AND SURFACE INSTABILITY IS
MODELED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE QUESTION WILL BE TIMING AND
IF STORMS MAKE IT SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND FIELD SUGGESTS ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS
THAT MAKE IT, MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE FL BIG BEND. IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN IF THE RAINFALL AXIS ALSO MAKES IT SOUTHEAST. MODELS
ALSO DEPICT MIXING TO AROUND 925 HPA, WHERE WINDS APPROACH 30 MPH,
SO THAT VALUE IS A CEILING FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 706 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN CALM AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
EVENING HOURS WITH THE SEABREEZE. SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH
WINDS MAXIMIZING IN THE SEABREEZE ZONE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN
CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT, INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL DECREASE
ON FRIDAY, SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. INCREASING CLOUDINESS WEDNESDAY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH IS EXPECTED
TO AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID-20S TO MID-30S ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, EXCEPT FOR A SEA-BREEZE CLOSE TO THE GULF
COAST. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST TRANSPORT WINDS ON MONDAY WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO LOW DISPERSION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
AIR MASS WILL MOISTEN ON TUESDAY AND MORESO ON WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE ESTABLISHED. MODERATE SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ON TUESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD HIGH DISPERSION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AWAY
FROM THE GULF COAST.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 51 84 57 83 / 0 0 0 10
PANAMA CITY 55 80 59 80 / 0 0 0 10
DOTHAN 49 80 53 83 / 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 48 81 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 50 83 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 52 87 59 87 / 0 0 10 10
APALACHICOLA 57 76 62 77 / 0 0 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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