956
FXUS62 KTAE 231845
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
245 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2021
NEAR TERM [THROUGH SUNDAY]
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE CONTROLLING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT, BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (BESIDES THIN
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS), AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW COOL
TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL FOR ONE MORE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
FOR SUNDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TRANSLATING EAST,
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT
WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID 80S.
SHORT TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]
SURFACE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE INFLUENCE AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES CYCLONIC WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE TRANSITS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH LIMITED MOIST
RETURN, EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY AND DRAGS A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA ON MONDAY, WITH POPS
LIMITED TO 30 PCT. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID ON MONDAY WITH
DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. DESPITE THIS, THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF
FORCING AND THE VOLUME OF DRY AIR ALOFT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG ON MONDAY MORNING, AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY. DAILY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]
A DYNAMIC, FALL STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
FIRST, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY. FOG IS LIKELY EARLY IN
THE MORNING, WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN A NORTHERN STREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS PHASES WITH ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM (REMNANTS OF TC
RICK IN THE E PAC) DURING MIDWEEK. THIS FEATURE CLOSES OFF AS
IT APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DRAGS A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THU NIGHT. TIMING DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
THE GFS/UKMET ARE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH WED EVENING INTO WED NIGHT, WHILE THE EC/CANADIAN
ARE SLOWER, DEPICTING WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. STORMS COULD
STRUGGLE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
GREATER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. SPC INDICATES A 15 PCT AREA ON D5
(WED) OVER SE AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION,
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO BE LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM. BUT WITH ENSEMBLES GENERATING AROUND 50 KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR (0-6 KM), A HIGH SHEAR - LOW CAPE (HSLC) ENVIRONMENT
WOULD COMPENSATE FOR THIS. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM
OF A QLCS WITH A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT, BUT A NORTHWARD
MOVING WARM FRONT ALSO BEARS WATCHING. OTHERWISE, THE ENVIRONMENT
WOULD FAVOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
WELL IN ADVANCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE BELOW A
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION, SO WOULD EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS EACH DAY. IN ADDITION, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FOR SOME SHOWERS, BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ON
BOTH DAYS OUTSIDE OF A 20 PCT POP SOUTH OF I-10 ON FRIDAY. WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WINDS COULD
GUST TO AT LEAST 25 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS, AND THERE COULD BE A
CHILL IN THE AIR AT TIMES GIVEN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND CLOUD
COVER.
AVIATION
[THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY]
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
MARINE
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WHEN IT COULD BRIEFLY
REACH 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT, THEN BECOME NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT,
AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE APPROACH OF A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL TURN WINDS SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS ON THURSDAY.
WINDS ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY AT
ADVISORY LEVELS, RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS, WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 8 FEET JUST OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SQUALL LINE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, AND THEN AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AS WINDS WILL BE LOW, AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY. ONLY CONCERNS WILL BE
LOW DISPERSIONS ON SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
THE ONLY CONCERN ON THE HYDROLOGY FRONT IS THE MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM
CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THE TIMING OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL BE FINE TUNED WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME IN LATER FORECASTS,
WE ARE EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA,
WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES. FORTUNATELY, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY, SO
THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AS SUCH, WE DON'T EXPECT
ANY RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR (WHILE FOLLOWING ALL LOCAL, STATE, AND CDC GUIDELINES) BY
CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 83 58 85 66 87 / 0 0 10 0 30
PANAMA CITY 84 62 84 68 84 / 0 0 10 20 20
DOTHAN 80 54 84 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 30
ALBANY 81 54 85 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 20
VALDOSTA 82 56 85 65 87 / 0 0 10 10 30
CROSS CITY 86 61 87 69 86 / 0 0 20 20 30
APALACHICOLA 82 65 81 70 83 / 0 0 10 20 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM...LF
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...LF
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