878
FXUS62 KTAE 190610
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
210 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT LIKELY TO CONTINUE OR WORSEN WITH NO RAINFALL
AND A WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- WARM AND FAIR WEATHER WILL MAKE BEACHES ATTRACTIVE. BE AWARE OF WHAT
BEACH FLAGS ARE FLYING AND WHAT THEY MEAN WITH RESPECT TO RIP
CURRENTS IF VISITING.
- MORNING FOG MAY BECOME A CONCERN STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
A CHILLY AND SOMEWHAT FROSTY MORNING GIVES WAY TO A PLEASANT MID-
MARCH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND SOME
CLOUDS THANKS TO NEARBY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY MORNING'S
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE 40S - ISOLATED UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE. EXPECT AN EVEN WARMER, ALBEIT COMFORTABLE DAY TOMORROW
AS THE HIGH SETTLES MORE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES
PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ATTEMPTING TO FORM OFF THE COASTAL FL
PANHANDLE. PREVAILING SW WINDS KICKS OFF A STEADY MOISTENING TREND
IN THE LOW LEVELS. PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO MAKE FOR
AT LEAST A "DECEPTIVE" MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL
BEACHES DESPITE THE FAIR WEATHER.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW US
CONTRIBUTES TO PROLONGED DRY NW FLOW ALOFT, THUS SUPPRESSING RAIN
AND ALLOWING THE WARM PATTERN TO CONTINUE. INLAND HIGHS IN THE LOW
80S WILL BE COMMON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LOCATIONS
FORECAST TO REACH MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY-MONDAY! A DAILY
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE KEEPS THE COASTAL STRIP COOLER BY SEVERAL
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY REBOUND TO THE 50S DURING THAT SAME
TIME SPAN. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST, LATE-NIGHT/MORNING
FOG MAY BECOME A CONCERN. BY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, AN APPARENT
BACKDOOR FRONT ATTEMPTS TO SAG IN FROM NORTH AND BRING LOW-END
RAIN CHANCES AND RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-10) BACK TO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZES PREVAIL TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF FOSTERS LIGHT TO VARIABLE
WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES MAKING FOR AN ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG THE NEARSHORE LEGS THROUGH MONDAY. GENTLE WESTERLY
BREEZES THEN OVERTAKE THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL, FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
POCKETS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
WARM/DRY CONDITIONS UNDER PREVAILING NE WINDS. A LIGHT SW WIND
BRINGS A SLIGHT INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO THE CENTRAL TIMEZONE
COUNTIES ON FRIDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES TO THE EAST WHERE WINDS
ARE MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE. THE LATTER FOSTERS LOW DISPERSIONS MOSTLY
FOR SW GA. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ON
SATURDAY USHER HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR
TO POINTS NORTHEASTWARD. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD SHOULD ALLOW A DAILY SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP. NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED UNTIL POTENTIALLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE AREA
AND HYDROLOGY CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE NEXT CHANCES, ALBEIT
LOW, DON'T ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK FROM A BACKDOOR
FRONT. SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OR WORSEN.
AS OF YESTERDAY, THE CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK GIVES 33-50%
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION - VALID MARCH 26TH-
APIL 1ST.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITES:
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 71 43 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 70 49 74 58 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 71 45 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 70 43 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 70 43 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 72 41 77 46 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 67 51 70 57 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ120>131-
142>148-155-156-161.
AL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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