018
FXUS62 KTAE 210816
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
316 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THIS FRONT HAS BEEN USHERING IN THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COLDER WEATHER. DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S. THESE WILL BE THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR. LATER TONIGHT,
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES BUT IT SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT GIVEN THE
DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AREN'T EXPECTED GIVEN WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND IN THE UPPER
30S ACROSS ALABAMA/GEORGIA COUNTIES AND AROUND 40 IN OUR FLORIDA
COUNTIES.
SHORT & LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
AT THE START OF THE TERM, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERING OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WOULD HAVE BROUGHT AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST, REINFORCING THE COOL AND DRY AIR THAT WE
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING. CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW AND PWATS OF LESS
THAN 0.5" WILL LEAVE US DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH COLD
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
ALLOWING OUR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S; AND
FOR OUR AL AND GA COUNTIES, MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL FURTHER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS FOR OUR AL AND GA COUNTIES WILL
BE AROUND THE LOW TO MID-30S. THIS MAY LEAD TO COLD-WEATHER
SHELTERING CONCERNS FOR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS. WE MAY ALSO
EXPERIENCE SOME PATCHY FROST DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING,
SO BE SURE TO PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA OVER
THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S, WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S,
WHICH IS ALSO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK,
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO ADVECT INLAND, INCREASING
OUR DEW POINTS TO THE 60S. POPS THROUGHOUT THE TERM REMAIN LOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. ONLY AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING DAYTIME HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
SOLID ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TOMORROW
FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30KTS.
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS
WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING WINDS
DOWN TO A GENTLE OR LIGHT BREEZE WITH SEAS AVERAGING 1-3 FEET. AS
WE START THE NEW WORK WEEK, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WHEN THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER TO THE ATLANTIC.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
RECENT WETTING RAINS SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW
DESPITE THE BREEZIER AND MUCH DRIER PATTERN WE'LL SEE ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. DISPERSIONS WILL BE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
ELEVATED AGAIN ON FRIDAY DUE TO ELEVATED NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT
WINDS AND 3 - 5 KFT MIXING HEIGHTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO CONTINUE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 61 42 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 64 46 63 42 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 61 39 58 36 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 63 39 58 36 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 63 40 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 66 43 64 40 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 63 47 62 43 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ108-112-114.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ FRIDAY FOR GMZ730-
750-752-755-765-770-772-775.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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