049
FXUS62 KTAE 080616
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
116 AM EST SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST SUN MAR 8 2026
- RECURRING ROUNDS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. USE CAUTION ON YOUR MORNING COMMUTES
SHOULD YOU ENCOUNTER DENSE FOG.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
TODAY, AND GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MONDAY
AFTERNOON'S STRONGEST STORMS.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF REACHING
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST SUN MAR 8 2026
FOG CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN BIG BEND WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
FURTHER EXPANSIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
FOG SPREADS.
MEANWHILE, A DECAYING MCS IS SITUATED OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA INTO
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN BEFORE IT CAN IMPACT OUR AREA, THOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY OUTFLOW OR STRONGER STORMS. THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MCS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. IF IT DECAYS COMPLETELY BEFORE MOVING INTO
OUR AREA, THEN WE MAY HAVE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER, IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER AND MOVES INTO
OUR AREA OR OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS, THEN INSTABILITY MAY BE CUT
OFF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN FEWER SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LATTER CURRENTLY APPEARS THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO. THUS, HAVE
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES FROM NBM, BUT THIS MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH FOR
THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO RE-EVALUATE. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND
FLINT RIVERS WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EAST.
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE FOG COULD
BE DENSE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST SUN MAR 8 2026
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR EARLY THIS WEEK, RESULTING IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES. THE ONLY WRINKLE IS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVELS MONDAY WITH US IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. WHILE THERE WON'T BE MUCH
FORCING OVERALL, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITH DAYTIME HEATING
TO GET SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THUS, GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS SHOULD STRONG STORMS DEVELOP. TUESDAY AND WEDNEDSAY SHOULD
BE DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH A FEW POCKETS NEAR 90. THIS IS CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH
TERRITORY FOR EARLY MARCH.
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THERE'S STILL SOME MODEL DISCRPANCIES TO WORK OUT, THE BIGGEST OF
WHICH IS WHETHER THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS PHASE, OR IF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE REMAINS SEPARATE. IF THE LATTER
HAPPENS, THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCEMENT IN SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES AS
THERE WOULD BE A BIT MORE ENERGY TO WORK WITH AND POTENTIAL
FRONTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. IF THE FORMER COMES TO PASS, THEN WE'D BE
ON THE TAIL-END OF ALL THE SUPPORT FOR STORMS, AND SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WOULD BE LOWER.
MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A RETURN TO NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST SUN MAR 8 2026
WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING WESTERN
TERMINALS OF ECP, DHN, AND TLH BRINGING LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
THESE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. FURTHER EAST ACROSS ABY/VLD
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVALENT BUT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
CLOSER TO SUNRISE. RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND
COULD AFFECT ECP/DHN AFTER 14Z BUT ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE AT ECP.
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, BUT THE
IMPROVEMENT COULD BE SLOWER TO OCCUR AT ECP/DHN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST SUN MAR 8 2026
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. SEA FOG REMAINS A CONCERN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS GIVEN THE VERY WARM, MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS. GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS,
SEAS, AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN
FURTHER WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-70%) OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE
WATERS THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST SUN MAR 8 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE FLINT AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS, DECREASING FARTHER
EAST. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. OTHERWISE
SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL PREVAIL TODAY, BUT
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER OVER THE WESTERN AREAS, RESULTING IN
LOW DISPERSIONS. FARTHER EAST, DISPERSIONS WILL BE GOOD. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
GOOD DISPERSIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS MONDAY WITH GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS,
HAIL, AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS
THE AREA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1121 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WHILE LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS, FLOOD
CONCERNS REMAIN RATHER LOW. THE MAIN HYDROLOGIC HAZARD REMAINS THE
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT IMPACTS, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 82 64 84 64 / 30 20 20 0
PANAMA CITY 75 65 78 65 / 40 20 10 0
DOTHAN 76 63 82 64 / 70 40 30 20
ALBANY 79 63 82 62 / 60 30 20 20
VALDOSTA 85 63 85 63 / 30 20 20 10
CROSS CITY 84 60 84 61 / 10 10 10 0
APALACHICOLA 74 65 74 64 / 20 10 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ012>015-027-112-114-115-127-326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ730-735-751-752-755-765-775.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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