004
FXUS62 KTAE 100026
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
826 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
- RECURRING ROUNDS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. USE CAUTION ON YOUR MORNING COMMUTES SHOULD YOU
ENCOUNTER DENSE FOG.
- LOW (LESS THAN 30%) CHANCE OF 1" OR MORE OF RAIN WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT'S FORECAST TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING'S MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON AN ONGOING
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH NORTH-
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE
MOST LIKELY PATH OF THAT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOST OF THE
HI-RES GUIDANCE AGREE IN THAT ASSESSMENT AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF OUR AREA. THAT SAID, THE ENVIRONMENT
OVER OUR AREA IS SUCH THAT WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS FOR
THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARRIVES THIS
EVENING WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. ADD IN MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM AND STRONGER 3-6KM SHEAR ARRIVING AHEAD OF AND
SOUTH OF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS MAINTAINED A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA AND A GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA TODAY.
FOG IS A CONCERN AGAIN TONIGHT FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA; THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF FOG ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. CONFIDENCE WASN'T QUITE HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST
PACKAGE, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR ONE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL LEAD TO A
VERY WARM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINE THAT WITH H85 TEMPERATURES NEAR
15C AND THAT SUPPORTS HIGHS EASILY IN THE MIDDLE 80S. ADD IN THE
VERY DRY GROUND AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO
FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. IN CASE YOU'RE
WONDERING, THE EARLIEST 90 DEGREE HIGH RECORDED IN THE TALLAHASSEE,
FL AREA IS MARCH 15TH AND MARCH 2ND FOR THE ALBANY, GA AREA. ALSO,
THE RECORD HIGH FOR TUESDAY IS 88 DEGREES FOR THE TALLAHASSEE AREA
AND 89 DEGREES FOR THE ALBANY, GA AREA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. THE PLUME OF 15-16C H85 TEMPERATURES
PUSHES MORE INTO GEORGIA THAN FLORIDA OR ALABAMA, SO AREAS ALONG THE
I-75 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF APPROACHING 90 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE TALLAHASSEE, FL AREA ON
WEDNESDAY IS 88 DEGREES; THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE ALBANY, GA AREA IS
89.
A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES THE AREA ALONG WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG WITH IT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW STRONG THE LINE OF STORMS WILL BE AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE H5 TROUGH WILL BE ROLLING OVER THE AREA
WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL JET
(LLJ) AT BOTH 925MB AND 850MB ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAKENING AS THE
LINE APPROACHES. AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE LINE SHOULD
LIMIT INSTABILITY. ALL THAT TO SAY THE LINE OF STORMS *SHOULD* BE
EXPERIENCING A WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
ON A MORE POSITIVE NOTE, THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING
BENEFICIAL RAIN TO THE AREA. THE MOST LIKELY RANGE OF RAINFALL IS
BETWEEN 0.25" TO 0.75" WITH A LOW (LESS THAN 30%) CHANCE OF
LOCATIONS RECEIVING MORE THAN 1".
COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT, FRIDAY, INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WE'RE USING THE WORD "COOLER" THERE LOOSELY AS
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE TIME PERIOD. FORECAST LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE
40S FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BACK
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.
WARMER WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS REBOUND BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR VSBY/CIGS TONIGHT ALL SITES;
LIFR VSBY MORE PREVALENT AT ECP, DHN, AND TLH, WITH IFR CIGS
AT ABY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS VLD WHICH MAY ONLY LOWER TO THE
MVFR CATEGORY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEA FOG REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN UNTIL THEN
WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY, AND
WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS.
NEVERTHELESS, MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
DISPERSIONS WILL BE GOOD AWAY FROM THE COAST, WHERE INFLUENCE FROM
THE COOLER WATERS REMAINS. WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS WEDNESDAY,
SOME AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH RECORD TERRITORY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD MIDDLE
TO UPPER 80S IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY; MINRH WILL.
GENERALLY DROP TO BETWEEN 35 TO 45 PERCENT BOTH AFTERNOONS. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
COLD FRONT. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED EACH MORNING THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
FLOOD CONCERNS REMAIN VERY LOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OUR NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. EVEN THEN, THE CHANCES OF ANY ONE LOCATION RECEIVING
MORE THAN 1" OF RAIN ARE LOW, OR LESS THAN 30%, WITH THE MOST
LIKELY FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.25" TO 0.75"
AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 63 86 61 85 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 65 79 64 79 / 10 0 0 0
DOTHAN 65 85 63 86 / 10 10 0 0
ALBANY 63 86 62 87 / 20 10 0 0
VALDOSTA 62 88 60 89 / 10 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 61 87 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 64 75 64 75 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR GMZ765-775.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...LF/OLIVER
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page