102
FXUS62 KTAE 051040
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
640 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2022
AVIATION
[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]
PATCHY FOG AND REUSLTANT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR ECP WILL
DISSIPATE BY 13Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TAF SITES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ECP THIS MORNING, THEN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS WANE AFTER 00Z. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN NEAR DHN AND ECP, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION [251 AM EDT]
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE BERMUDA HIGH NOSES ITS INFLUENCE INTO
OUR CWA WITH SOME SLIGHT SUBSIDENCE, RESULTING IN A MINIMUM IN
RAIN CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GA (40-50%). MEANWHILE, IT'S A
COPY/PASTE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE AREA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING, BECOMING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE FARTHER INLAND. POPS ARE AROUND 50-70% FOR
SOUTHEAST AL, SOUTHWEST GA, AND THE FLORIDA COUNTIES. DCAPE MAY BE
A TOUCH HIGHER TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, RISING TO 700-900 J/KG,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. OTHERWISE, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS NEAR/ABOVE 2
INCHES WILL RESULT IN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH STORMS. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S AREAWIDE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
100-105. STORMS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH LOWS IN THE MID-70S.
SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]
A SEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO RANGE FROM JUST BELOW 2 INCHES TO JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PATTERN OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30-50%
RANGE. LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH
MAY APPROACH AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND,
ENHANCING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UP INTO THE
LIKELY RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT
WITH TROPICAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND 90 IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
STORMS PUSH INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AWAY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS
WEEKEND. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE
WEEK, BUT MAY INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 FEET THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LOW DISPERSIONS
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE, MOST
CONDITIONS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS PRECLUDES AND
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE POCKETS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD SOME AREAS OF ISOLATED FLOODING IN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, THERE ARE NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ISSUES EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR (WHILE FOLLOWING ALL LOCAL, STATE, AND CDC GUIDELINES) BY
CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 93 74 95 75 95 / 60 20 40 10 40
PANAMA CITY 89 78 90 77 90 / 50 10 30 10 30
DOTHAN 91 74 93 74 94 / 60 20 30 10 30
ALBANY 94 76 96 77 97 / 50 20 30 10 40
VALDOSTA 93 74 95 75 96 / 50 20 30 10 40
CROSS CITY 91 75 94 75 93 / 50 20 50 20 50
APALACHICOLA 88 77 89 78 90 / 40 10 30 10 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...YOUNG
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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