649
FXUS62 KTAE 061927
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
327 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED AS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN REMAINS. COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
HEAT INDICES SLOWLY INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY MEETING
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN
AIR- CONDITIONED PLACES, WEAR LIGHT CLOTHING, AND KNOW THE SIGNS
OF HEAT STRESS AND ILLNESSES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A DEEP RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ACROSS FL INTO THE GULF, AND A TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OH AND MS VALLEYS TO TX. THSI
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION HAS INCREASED PWS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THE RESULT, MAINLY ACROSS OUR FL COUNTIES.
OFFICIAL NBM DEW POINTS WERE A BIT HIGH AND BLENDED WITH CONMOS
PER REGIONAL COORDINATION, THIS KEPT HEAT INDICES JUST BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS (108F) FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER FL AND THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDWEEK,
LOWERING COVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
THEN DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST INCREASING CONVECTION COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN PLAY EACH DAY,
PARTICULARLY FOR OUR FL ZONES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY. PRIMARILY IMPACTING
ECP/TLH/VLD WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO DHN AND ABY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION SPREADS NORTHWARD. MVFR TO IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNDER ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AROUND SUNSET AND IS EXPECTED TO START BACK
UP ALONG THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE. A WASH, RINSE, REPEAT CYCLE IS
EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
A SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS MOST DAYS. AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL
INCREASE COASTAL WINDS EACH DAY, PARTICULARLY IN APALACHEE BAY.
A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK AS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH BUILDS BACK WEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WITH A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OVER THE REGION, THERE ARE LITTLE
TO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK.
FOG CONCERNS AND OTHER REMARKS...SOME OVERNIGHT FOG CONCERNS COULD
RETURN THIS WEEK AS BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, BUT LOWER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN AN
INCH ARE FORECAST WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IF A SLOWER-MOVING
THUNDERSTORM PASSES OVER. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 76 93 76 95 / 10 50 10 50
PANAMA CITY 80 91 81 92 / 70 60 30 20
DOTHAN 75 94 76 95 / 20 30 10 30
ALBANY 76 94 77 96 / 20 30 10 20
VALDOSTA 76 95 76 96 / 10 30 10 10
CROSS CITY 78 94 78 95 / 20 30 10 10
APALACHICOLA 81 90 82 90 / 40 40 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM....WOOL
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
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