260
FXUS62 KTAE 301958
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
358 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAINS
WILL BE BENEFICIAL IN COMBATING DROUGHT, BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. LESS RAIN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE FLOODING THREAT WILL BE HIGHER ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN PLACE AT ALL LOCAL
BEACHES. BEACHGOERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES
AND DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF IF RED OR DOUBLE RED FLAGS ARE
FLYING. MANY SWIMMERS NEEDED TO BE RESCUED TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK TO A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4).
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL RETROGRADE
SETTING UP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS CAN SOMETIMES
RESULT IN STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER, A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN
CHANCES AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT EASTERN TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A DAILY ONSHORE SEABREEZE WHICH WILL RESULT IN
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE LEGS THIS THROUGH
MONDAY. THE PRESENCE OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS HAS RESULTED IN MANY
RESCUES AT PANHANDLE BEACHES TODAY. ANOTHER BOATING CONCERN WILL
BE THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY WEDNESDAY, A
BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM
NORTHERLY IN THE MORNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS, EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
LATER IN THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES SHOULD KEEP FIRE
CONCERNS MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY/ERRATIC
WIND THREAT. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY. OTHERWISE,
SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL. HIGH DISPERSION INDICES ARE FORECAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SUPPRESSED MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OUTSIDE THE SEABREEZE ZONE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
RECENT RAINFALL HAS INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE, BUT LONG TERM
DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN. AS OF MAY 28TH HOWEVER, THE LATEST
MONITOR SHOWS IMPROVEMENT ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER BASIN
WHERE D2 SEVERE DROUGHT IS NOW IN PLACE FROM ROUGHLY FROM ALBANY,
GA TO JUST WEST OF KECP IN BAY COUNTY, FL. EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE EAST.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND GIVEN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. A SLIGHT REPRIEVE IN THE WET PATTERN ARRIVES
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY BEFORE RETURNING LATE NEXT WEEK. RIVERINE
FLOODING POTENTIAL IS LOW. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE CARYVILLE IS
CRESTING ALONG ACTION STAGE WHILE BRUCE IS FORECAST TO REACH
ACTION STAGE BY EARLY MONDAY.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITES:
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 72 88 71 90 / 10 80 60 40
PANAMA CITY 75 87 75 88 / 10 30 40 30
DOTHAN 71 86 69 89 / 30 80 60 20
ALBANY 70 84 68 87 / 50 90 70 20
VALDOSTA 70 86 69 87 / 60 90 60 40
CROSS CITY 73 90 73 90 / 30 40 40 50
APALACHICOLA 76 86 76 87 / 10 20 30 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM....WOOL
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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