555
FXUS62 KTAE 310126
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
926 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 923 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER TODAY HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING.
- A WET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND INTO MIDWEEK.
MOST LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES, MAINLY IN THE FL BIG BEND
COUNTIES. THESE AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RISES ON SMALL RIVER SYSTEMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 923 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
UPDATED TONIGHT'S RAIN CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND
MODEL TRENDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION, ALBEIT ON A DIMINISHING TREND,
LINGERS IN PARTS OF SE AL, THE SE FL BIG BEND, AND OVER APALACHEE
BAY. THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE BETTER CONDUCIVE FOR MORE
SUSTAINED ACTIVITY COMPARED TO THE MORE STABILIZING CONDITIONS
OVER LAND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. BEING SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, WE REMAIN VERY
WARM AND HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN TODAY AND YESTERDAY IS THAT WE HAVE LESS SHEAR TO WORK WITH
TODAY. SO, STORMS WILL MORE LIKELY BE OF THE PULSE-VARIETY RATHER
THAN ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OR LINES. STILL, A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER (LEVEL 1 OF 5) CONTINUES FOR TODAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR
AREA FOR THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. THESE STORMS
SHOULD SLOWLY FADE AFTER SUNSET, BUT SOME STORMS MAY LINGER IN THE
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND AND OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
FOR FRIDAY, THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BISECT OUR AREA
ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN
OUR ALABAMA AND FLORIDA COUNTIES (60-80%) VS OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES
(20-50%). STORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL ALSO BE IN A HIGHLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, BUT WILL ALSO HAVE DRY AIR ALOFT TO WORK WITH,
YIELDING DCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG. THUS, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF
SPC INTRODUCES A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR AT LEAST PART OF
THE AREA. WE'LL ALSO NEED TO SEE IF WE NEED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOME
AREAS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST FORECAST IS RATHER MARGINAL
WITH SOME POCKETS OF 108-110 HEAT INDEX IN THE FLORIDA COUNTIES, BUT
THE WRENCH IS ALL THIS IS THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND, BUT THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES
OUR AREA THANKS TO THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENING. THIS SETS UP A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS OUR AREA, BRINGING TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND. PWATS SURGE TO 2.2 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA, WHICH WILL INCREASE OUR THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN A
MORE SW-NE ORIENTATION AND FLOW LARGELY PARALLELING THE BOUNDARY,
THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS IS THERE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
THREAT OF POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THE THREAT
OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS, MOSTLY THANKS TO
THE LACK OF DRY AIR AND MOSTLY WEAK FLOW. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY BEFORE THE TROUGH AND FRONT WEAKEN AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. MOST LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THE GOOD NEWS WITH THE RAIN IS THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME COOLER AIR IN
PLACE WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. BEYOND
TUESDAY, WE WILL DRY BACK OUT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS BACK IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE MID WEEK BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
KEPT THUNDER MENTIONED AT ALL TERMINALS TO BEGIN THIS TAF EXCEPT
ECP. STORMS LINGER AROUND THE LONGEST AT DHN/ABY WHERE TEMPOS ARE
IN PLACE WHEREAS TLH/VLD HANG ONTO VCTS OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS.
THERE ARE STILL SIGNALS FOR POTENTIALLY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS INVOF DHN/ABY/VLD DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT MOSTLY QUIET WX OVERNIGHT. FOR TMRW, INTRO'D AFTN (18-20Z
START) PROB30 GROUPS FOR -TSRA AT ALL SITES - ECP AS SOON AS 12Z.
WEST TO SW WINDS PREVAIL GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY,
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY OVER
THE OPEN WATERS IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, THEN NEAR
SHORE AND OVER THE BAYS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET
IN RESPONSE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
A WETTER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND, KEEPING FIRE CONCERNS LIMITED AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH. PROBABILITIES FOR A WETTING RAIN OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS REMAIN VERY HIGH. MAIN ITEMS TO WATCH FOR WILL BE GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY TODAY
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE SEABREEZE MAKING INLAND PROGRESS BOTH DAYS.
THE ONLY THING TO WATCH INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE WHERE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OUT. IF IT STALLS OUT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, SOME LOW
END FIRE CONCERNS COULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
COUNTIES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
ANY OF THE POP UP THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, OVER THE WEEKEND, A
PATTERN FAVORING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE BIG BEND SETS UP WITH A
SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. CURRENTLY, MOST LIKELY
RAINFALL FORECASTS ARE AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN, MOSTLY THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. REASONABLE HIGH-END TOTALS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE (10% CHANCE OF EXCEEDANCE). THIS COULD LEAD TO A
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS
TRAIN AND/OR MOVE SLOWLY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIVERS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE RIGHT NOW, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH THE
SMALLER RIVERS IN THE BIG BEND THIS WEEKEND FOR ANY POTENTIAL RISES
IF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 74 91 74 87 / 70 70 70 100
PANAMA CITY 78 89 76 87 / 40 50 80 90
DOTHAN 74 92 73 87 / 50 70 50 90
ALBANY 73 93 73 89 / 20 20 30 90
VALDOSTA 73 94 73 91 / 60 40 40 90
CROSS CITY 74 91 73 89 / 70 60 80 80
APALACHICOLA 78 88 77 85 / 50 70 80 90
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR
FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...IG3
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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