418
FXUS62 KTAE 241136
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
636 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 636 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
- A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA COUNTIES UNTIL 9 AM EST /
8 AM CST. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FL
COUNTIES UNTIL 8 AM EST / 7 AM CST. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE
HYPOTHERMIA WITH PROLONGED EXPOSURE AND EXPOSED PIPES FREEZING.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY DUE TO
LOW HUMIDITY AND ONGOING DROUGHT. BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL WITH OPEN
FLAMES.
- MARINE HAZARDS INCLUDE: A LOW TO MEDIUM (30 TO 50 PERCENT)
CHANCE OF ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- A MEDIUM TO HIGH (70 TO 80 PERCENT) CHANCE OF LIFE THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING, AFTERNOON HIGHS REBOUND SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. THIS MORNING, A FREEZE
WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA COUNTIES UNTIL 9 AM EST/8 AM CST.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FL COUNTIES
UNTIL 8 AM EST / 7 AM CST. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE HYPOTHERMIA
WITH PROLONGED EXPOSURE AND EXPOSED PIPES FREEZING.
BY LATE AFTERNOON, EXPECT HIGHS SOLIDLY WITHIN THE 50S ACROSS THE
REGION. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS AGAIN TODAY, ALONG WITH DRY FUELS FROM
THE ONGOING DROUGHT, WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY DUE TO EASIER FIRE STARTS. BE EXTREMELY
CAREFUL WITH OPEN FLAMES. DEW POINTS WILL HAVE DOWNSIDE POTENTIAL
AGAIN TODAY, THUS OUR FORECAST REPRESENTS THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF THE
GUIDANCE.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WAA LEADING TO
INCREASING CLOUDINESS. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING, RANGING FROM THE MID-30S TO MID-40S.
SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON NAVIGATIONAL
HAZARDS RELATING TO LOW WATER THIS MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
A RAPID WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 70
DEGREES, OR ABOUT 15 DEGREES HIGHER ON AVERAGE COMPARED TO TODAY.
WITH THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT, A MOIST AIR MASS
OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CENTERED ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MAY GUST AROUND 20 TO 30+ MPH IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THIS LEADS TO A MEDIUM TO HIGH (70 TO 80
PERCENT) CHANCE OF LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH GREATER COVERAGE
LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVED THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SEASONABLY HIGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS PRESENT BUT INSTABILITY IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
TENDS TO STALL NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE
RIPPLING ALONG IT, WHICH MAY LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, AND A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING. ONCE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON,
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN. BY LATE TONIGHT, THIS WILL
HAVE BROUGHT ENOUGH SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN FOR VFR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS,
WITH MORE TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A
WIND-DRIVEN LOW TIDE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH NAVIGATIONAL IMPACTS IN THE FL BIG BEND AND
MODERATE IMPACTS IN THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE DUE TO LOW WATER.
IMPACTS WILL BE MOST ACUTE IN BAYS, HARBORS, INLETS, AND TIDAL
RIVERS. LOOKING AHEAD, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (30 TO 50 PERCENT)
CHANCE OF ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT,
SEA FOG MAY RETURN, ESPECIALLY OVER APALACHEE BAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MINIMUM RH GENERALLY RANGING FROM 20 TO 30% EXCEPT HIGHER NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY DUE TO EASIER FIRE STARTS. EXPECT LOW DISPERSION TODAY, WHICH
MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-10. LOOKING AHEAD,
WEDNESDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY, WITH A BIG WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE INCREASING, FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS ON
THURSDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH
DISPERSION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT, GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MEDIUM (40-70%) CHANCE OF
GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN. ENSEMBLES SHOW A 60% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE WITH THE FRONT,
WHICH IS SLOWING AS IT ENTERS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER FLOW
INCREASINGLY PARALLELS IT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IN SOME HEAVIER
POCKETS OF RAINFALL WITH QUICK RUNOFF OVER THE DRY GROUND LEADING
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 58 37 71 58 / 0 0 0 20
PANAMA CITY 57 45 71 62 / 0 0 10 40
DOTHAN 56 37 72 58 / 0 0 10 50
ALBANY 55 35 71 56 / 0 0 0 40
VALDOSTA 56 34 71 53 / 0 0 0 20
CROSS CITY 58 35 70 50 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 55 45 69 62 / 0 0 10 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ114.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ120>131-
142>148-155>161.
AL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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