361
FXUS62 KTAE 151354
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
954 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 951 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE FROM THE EARLY TO MID-MORNING IN
THE SUWANEE VALLEY, FLINT RIVER VALLEY, AND THE FL PANHANDLE
TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN ON FRIDAY MORNING.
- A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WINDS THIS WEEKEND TO 35 MPH OVER LAND AND 40 KNOTS OVER COASTAL
WATERS THAT MAY IMPACT HURRICANE RECOVERY EFFORTS, INCLUDING
COMPROMISED TREES LEADING TO POWER OUTAGES, DRONES, IMPROPERLY
SECURED ROOF TARPS, LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS, AND HAZARDOUS BOATING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-80S TO NEAR 90
THROUGH FRIDAY, TURNING SHARPLY COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-60S TO MID-70S. LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR DOWN TO THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM EDT. OTHERWISE, THERE WERE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TODAY'S FORECAST.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BREAKDOWN
BY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID-80S TO AROUND 90 THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME HUMIDITY IN THE AIR
AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT
MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS REMAINS ON TAP FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS THIS WEEKEND. BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MAY
IMPACT OUTDOOR EVENTS AND HURRICANE RECOVERY EFFORTS THIS WEEKEND.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH OVER LAND AND 40 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE A GOOD BET, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY, WITH WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
FOG IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING EAST OF VLD AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
WESTWARD. THE TAF CONTINUES TEMPO IFR VSBYS THROUGH 13Z. VFR
THEREAFTER AS WELL AS THE OTHER SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY SKY CLEAR TODAY THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG, THOUGH NOT IN THE TAFS ATTM, MAY BE ADDED WITH BETTER
CONFIDENCE IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT
EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY WITH DAILY SEA
BREEZES. ON FRIDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL BLAST ACROSS THE WATERS,
USHERING IN A SHARP INCREASE IN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES
WITH GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
FAIR DISPERSION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY, EXCEPT POCKETS OF
LOW DISPERSION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST GA. ON FRIDAY,
HIGH DISPERSION CHANCES INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF SHOWER CLOSER TO THE COAST ON FRIDAY OR ON FRIDAY NIGHT,
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WITH MINRH PERCENTAGE VALUES IN THE MID-30S
TO LOW 40S TODAY AND FRIDAY. LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY, THEN CLOCKING
AROUND TO THE WEST AND INCREASING ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO FOLLOWING FOR THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 THROUGH FRIDAY, THE DECREASING TO THE
70S THIS WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL, SEVERAL RIVERS ARE OBSERVED/FORECAST
IN ACTION STAGE. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE MAY EVENTUALLY
GO INTO MINOR FLOOD, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE
FOR NOW. NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OR FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 89 67 88 63 / 0 0 0 10
PANAMA CITY 86 67 85 61 / 0 0 10 10
DOTHAN 88 64 86 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 89 64 87 58 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 89 66 88 63 / 0 0 0 10
CROSS CITY 88 69 88 68 / 0 0 20 30
APALACHICOLA 83 70 83 65 / 0 0 10 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ019-028-
029-034.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ147-148-
159>161.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...IG3
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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