791
FXUS62 KTAE 120531
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
131 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
AN H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF EXPANDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
LATER TODAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FEWER SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT COMPARED TO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY, WE'LL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY. THE 1000-700MB MEAN FLOW IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST TODAY
AND SHOULD FAVOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEABREEZE OVER
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THE
SEABREEZE PUSHING NORTH COMBINED WITH ANY OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MOST SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY 10-11PM EDT. TEMPERATURES CLIMB
BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH A 592-593DM H5
RIDGE NEARBY; ONE OR TWO LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH HEAD ADVISORY
LEVELS (HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 108 DEGREES), BUT HELD OFF ON
ISSUING ONE AS CONFIDENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE WASN'T HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
A HOT SUMMER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAT
INDEX VALUES AND THE POSSIBLY OF HEAT ADVISORIES. WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE SEABREEZE WILL LIKELY
BE SUPPRESSED, AND TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS WITH A LATE START TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT SOMEWHAT AND KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES SOMEWHAT TEMPERED COMPARED TO WHAT THEY COULD BE. HOWEVER, WE
STILL THINK PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL HIT 108F ACROSS AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE
HEAT ADVISORIES. A SIMILAR SITUATION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES A COUPLE OF DEGREES HOTTER. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND ALONG
THE SUPPRESSED SEABREEZE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN A BIT
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO THE GULF.
THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO COOL SOMEWHAT BACK INTO THE 88-92 RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MUGGY WELL INTO THE 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE ACROSS OUR FLORIDA SITES, KTLH AND KECP,
WHERE VCTS WAS MAINTAINED. ALSO MAINTAINED THE PROB30S ELSEWHERE AS
CONFIDENCE WASN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS AND/OR TEMPO GROUPS
WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST EACH DAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK. SEAS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 1-2
FEET AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5-10 KTS, BUT STRONG AND ERRATIC
GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. WE ARE ALSO IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WHERE WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FAIR TO GOOD
DISPERSIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS MOST DISTRICTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH DISPERSIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF OUR GEORGIA
DISTRICTS SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND OTHER LEFTOVER MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE. RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 94 77 95 77 / 60 20 70 10
PANAMA CITY 92 79 93 79 / 50 10 50 20
DOTHAN 95 74 95 75 / 40 10 40 10
ALBANY 95 75 96 76 / 30 10 30 10
VALDOSTA 97 75 96 78 / 50 20 50 20
CROSS CITY 93 75 94 76 / 40 20 70 30
APALACHICOLA 90 78 90 79 / 40 20 60 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...REESE
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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