292
FXUS62 KTAE 241121
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
621 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 619 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
- FOG, LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES, IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND OVER THE
NEXT FEW MORNINGS INTO THE WEEKEND. THOSE COMMUTING OR TRAVELING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OR IN THE MORNING SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR SLOW DOWNS OR DELAYS.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
10-15F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEXT
COOL DOWN NOT LIKELY UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTROL THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL
DAYS OF TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WHILE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOW-LEVEL
WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND SLOWLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AREAS
OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS. THE DENSE FOG CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, AND BIG BEND, BUT AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REST OF THE INLAND FORECAST ZONES BY THE
WEEKEND MORE WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED.
THIS STAGNANT PATTERN OF WARM AND FOGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR MOVES
THROUGH. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN CHANGE. WHILE WE WON'T SEE MUCH RAIN, IF
ANY, WITH THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS THAT TUESDAY'S
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE COLDEST OF THE 2025-2026 WINTER
SEASON SO FAR. HOWEVER, THOSE DETAILS ARE STILL TO BE REFINED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS HOUR DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. THESE CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW
TO ERODE AFTER SUNRISE WITH MOST SITES NOT BECOMING VFR AGAIN
UNTIL AT LEAST 16Z. AROUND 00Z, FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP NEAR
ECP AGAIN, BECOMING DENSE WITH AT LEAST LIFR CONDITIONS, IF NOT
VLIFR, EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. FOG WILL ALSO
ENCROACH ON DHN AND TLH BY 05-06Z WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG
BEYOND THEN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
MAIN MARITIME CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS AND BAYS BEGINNING TONIGHT INTO
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST IN THE
LATE EVENING TO MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE, FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILING. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
DOESN'T LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY
AND FIRE CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE INTO THE
WEEKEND GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR. THE ONLY
CONCERNS THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE PERIODS OF LOW
DISPERSIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND COASTLINE
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND FOG IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OUR NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VERY LOW WETTING
RAIN CHANCES. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONT. ALTHOUGH BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL TEMPER
SOME FIRE CONCERNS, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RHS COULD BRING
SOME FIRE CONCERNS INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE, LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 76 54 76 53 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 70 55 72 57 / 0 0 0 10
DOTHAN 76 53 76 52 / 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 78 52 76 51 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 79 52 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 78 52 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 69 55 70 57 / 0 0 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ007>018-027-108-112-114-115-118-127-326-426.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ120>127-
142>146-155>159.
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ735-751-752-755.
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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