353
FXUS62 KTAE 200627
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
227 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES INTO THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. BEACH- GOERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT LIFEGUARDS ON
SURF CONDITIONS AND DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF IF RED OR
DOUBLE RED FLAGS ARE FLYING.
- HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOST COMMONLY REACH THE 90 TO 95
DEGREE RANGE. MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED, AFFECTING THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, AND SOME
HEALTH SYSTEMS AND INDUSTRIES.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. COVERAGE WILL THEN INCREASE OVER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STRONGER STORMS.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
TRI STATE REGION INTO THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
TO THE WEST, LONGWAVE TROUGHING EXTENDS THROUGH THE ROCKIES
SOUTHWEST TO OFF THE BAJA COAST. IN BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE
LIES A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST TO TEXAS. THIS
FRONT WILL EDGE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. WITH THE SHIFTING OF
THE RIDGE EAST INTO THE WEEKEND, THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHER PWATS (1.6-
1.8 INCHES) TO SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA WHILE DRIER
AIR TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL PRIMARILY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EMERALD
COAST SEABREEZE WHERE HIGHER PWATS RESIDE WITH DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS SHIFTING NORTH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW (20-30%) BEFORE
LOSING SOME OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AS IT HEADS EAST. RAIN
CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY (30-60%) FAVORING SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. IN THE MEANTIME, UPPER
HIGH TRANSLATES TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST TUESDAY WHICH WILL ACT
AS A SUPPRESSOR ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS MID WEEK NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE PWATS FALL TO 1.2 INCHES EAST
WITH 1.8 INCHES WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. HEAT INDICES WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH AROUND
100F IN SOME SPOTS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MINOR
TO MODERATE HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, AFFECTING THOSE WHO
ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, AND SOME HEALTH SYSTEMS AND INDUSTRIES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. PATCHY
FOG AND LOWERED (IFR) CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ECP AND DHN AROUND
DAYBREAK. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, THE SAME TERMINALS WILL HAVE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. ERRATIC
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR OUR REMAINING TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS OF 1-3 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON FIRST IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA LATER TODAY AND THEN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND. MOVING FORWARD INTO THE WEEKEND, CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE WITH A
MAJORITY OF THE DISTRICTS STANDING AT A 30-60% CHANCE. GUSTY WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS. AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS ARE FAIR TO GOOD EACH DAY AND
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
HEAVY DOWNPOURS BENEATH THE CORE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AND SHORT-LIVED NUISANCE
FLOODING IN URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, MAINLY FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES AND THE AIR MASS
MOISTENS FURTHER.
LARGER SCALE FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 91 71 92 71 / 10 0 20 0
PANAMA CITY 87 72 87 73 / 30 0 0 0
DOTHAN 90 69 90 68 / 50 20 10 10
ALBANY 91 69 92 70 / 10 0 20 10
VALDOSTA 92 70 93 70 / 10 10 10 10
CROSS CITY 92 70 92 72 / 10 20 20 0
APALACHICOLA 85 73 86 75 / 10 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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