765
FXUS62 KTAE 102332
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
732 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
- ON MONDAY, THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. PRIMARY THREATS ARE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
- BENEFICIAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
THERE IS A MEDIUM (40 TO 60%) CHANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL 0.5" OR
MORE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND WHERE THE CHANCE TAPERS OFF TO LOW
(25% AND LESS).
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THERE MAY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, MAINLY IN OUR FLORIDA
COUNTIES. A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH. POPS TODAY RANGE FROM 30-50
PERCENT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10.
MONDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
WITH POPS AROUND 40-60% WITH HIGHEST VALUES ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-10. THE CWA IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE SPC IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF
5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR HAIL, DEPENDING
ON HOW WARM IT CAN GET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR A CONCENTRATION OF WIND AND HAIL OCCURRENCE WILL BE WHERE
THE SURFACE FRONT INTERSECTS ANY INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE. THE
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ON TUESDAY, KEEPING ABOUT A 50% POPS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION FILTERING IN DRIER AIR.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE
LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER. GRADUAL WARMING INTO THE UPPER
80S IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY BUT, AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE A DRY
FRONT WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH TLH AND DHN BEING THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO
EXPERIENCE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ANY PATCHY FOG OR LOW CEILINGS WILL
DISSIPATE BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS. A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY WITH PROB30 INDICATED AT MOST LOCATIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL CLOCK AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY
THEN NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BY
MIDWEEK. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, DURING WHICH THERE MAY BE ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT, SEAS WILL BE STEADY AT 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND ANOTHER
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED NEAR THE END OF THIS WEEK THAT WILL SHIFT
WINDS NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY AGAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE SEABREEZE DRIVEN. A
COUPLE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS, MAINLY IN THE FL PANHANDLE AND
BIG BEND, MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-40 MPH AND LIGHTNING
TODAY AND TOMORROW. LOW TO POOR DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY DUE
TO TRANSPORT WINDS BEING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND CLOUD COVER.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL FILTER IN WITH FAIR TO MODERATE DISPERSIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WE HAVE HAD VERY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY THAT
MAY SLOW OR STALL WHICH WOULD KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY. WE HAVE SO FAR RECEIVED WIDESPREAD 1-3
INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE FL SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. ANOTHER 0.5-1" OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER MONDAY'S COLD FRONT AND ANY WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BRINGING ALL THIS
TO AN END. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS RAIN EVENT MAY HAVE PUT A
DENT IN CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS HOWEVER, A DRY PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 67 86 66 82 / 0 50 40 50
PANAMA CITY 68 82 68 82 / 0 20 30 30
DOTHAN 63 84 63 79 / 0 50 30 20
ALBANY 63 85 63 79 / 10 40 30 20
VALDOSTA 65 87 65 79 / 0 40 40 40
CROSS CITY 67 87 67 85 / 0 10 40 60
APALACHICOLA 70 81 69 80 / 0 30 30 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page