089
FXUS62 KTAE 031020
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
620 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 8 TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES.
REMEMBER, TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN!
- ELSEWHERE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AS EVIDENT WITH THE
WIDESPREAD 2.2” TO 2.5” PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWATS)
OVERHEAD. A BROAD H5 RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A RESULT, OFF AND ON TROPICAL DOWNPOURS ARE
IN THE FORECAST MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE EXTREMELY EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKERS AND COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK INCH OR TWO IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME (LESS THAN AN
HOUR). THIS COULD PRODUCE NUISANCE FLOODING IN MORE URBAN AND LOW-
LYING AREAS AND STREETS.
AN H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND MOSEYS
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.
THIS IS WHEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAIN IS HIGHEST, AT LEAST
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT, A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED
FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
FORECAST WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EMERALD COAST BY THE TIME WE GET TO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
A FLOOD WATCH WAS CONSIDERED FOR MORE OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE WASN’T HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ONE AT THIS
TIME. THAT SAID, AN EXPANSION OF THE FLOOD WATCH IS VERY MUCH ON
THE TABLE FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
ONE OTHER THING WE’LL KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK
TORNADO OR TWO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WE’LL HAVE VERY DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS FROM THE HI-RES
GUIDANCE SHOW SOME CURVATURE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. ONE LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE CAPE IN THE LOWEST 3KM, OR 3CAPE, BUT VALUES IN SOME
AREAS NEAR 80 J/KG ARE ENOUGH TO MAKE THIS FORECASTER GO “HMMM…”.
IT’S CERTAINLY NOT A GIVEN, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAIN
IS MUCH HIGHER, BUT IT’S WORTH MENTIONING.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, THEY’LL GENERALLY RUN IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WON’T COOL MUCH BELOW 70 ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.
.LONG TERM
MORE RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK, BUT THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH DAY WILL BE WETTER, MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT IT LARGELY DEPENDS ON WHEN
AN H5 TROUGH OVER WESTERN TEXAS DECIDES TO HEAD EAST. MONDAY
WOULD BE THE WETTER OF THE TWO DAYS IF THE TROUGH IS ON THE FASTER
SIDE AND HELPS REINVIGORATE RAIN ALONG A COLD FRONT CRAWLING
THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE, TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WOULD BE THE WETTER TIME PERIOD SHOULD THE TROUGH BE A BIT SLOWER,
WHICH WOULD HELP KEEP THE FRONT A LITTLE CLOSER TO OUR IMMEDIATE
COAST. THIS IS SOMETHING WE’LL MONITOR OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT
COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING POTENTIAL EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK.
EITHER WAY, THE FRONT IS NOW FORECAST TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY
MID TO LATE WEEK TO KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES MORE OVER THE GULF AND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND.
STILL, IT’S CLOSE ENOUGH THAT WE’LL MONITOR ANY EBBS AND FLOWS
IT’LL HAVE AS IT STALLS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. AMPLE MOISTURE
RUNNING OVER THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CREATE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL, OR IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS FLORIDA.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
POCKETS OF LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT AND SCATTER
OUT BY MID-MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL CHANCES ARE FAIRLY ELEVATED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RAIN
CHANCES LINGER DUE TO THE STAND FRONT NEARBY.
.FIRE
ASIDE FROM POOR TO FAIR DISPERSIONS OVER THE WEEKEND, NO FIRE
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. THIS IS THANKS TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS OUR AL/GA COUNTIES
AND 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
HYDROLOGY
A VERY WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
STARTING THIS MORNING AND LASTING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AN
EXPANSION OF THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONSIDERED BY LATER SHIFTS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL LARGELY COME FROM HIGH RAINFALL
RATES AND ACROSS ANY POOR DRAINAGE OR URBANIZED AREAS GIVEN
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE RAINFALL RATES ARE CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWATS) ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR, OR EXCEED, RECORD VALUES FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG PERIODS OF 2” TO 3” PER HOUR FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIME. THIS IS WHY FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN POOR
DRAINAGE OR URBANIZED AREAS.
ON THE RIVERINE FRONT, CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL (GENERALLY 2” TO
5”) AMOUNTS WILL STRUGGLE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RIVERINE CONCERNS
DUE TO DRIER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR MAINSTEM RIVERS.
HOWEVER, SHOULD THE HIGHER END RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6” OR MORE
VERIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, SOME RIVERS COULD REACH ACTION
STAGE, AND SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVER STREAMS COULD SEE MINOR
FLOODING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 86 73 81 72 / 70 60 90 80
PANAMA CITY 84 74 81 73 / 70 80 90 90
DOTHAN 87 71 78 70 / 80 80 100 70
ALBANY 88 72 78 70 / 60 70 90 90
VALDOSTA 88 72 84 71 / 70 40 80 80
CROSS CITY 86 73 85 73 / 50 50 60 60
APALACHICOLA 83 76 82 75 / 70 80 90 90
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ007>010-012-014-108-112-114.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...DVD
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