855
FXUS62 KTAE 251859
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
259 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
- HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT WETTING RAIN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. FOLLOW LOCAL OFFICIALS' ORDERS FOR BURN BANS AND
OTHER GUIDANCE.
- STRONG EAST BREEZES WILL BLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY SUNDAY, CREATING HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT THE BEACHES
THROUGH MONDAY.
- A WETTING RAIN WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES EAST ALONG THE
GULF COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN UNDER 1 INCH.
A FEW PLACES IN THE PANHANDLE AND PERHAPS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
COULD PICK UP AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ANYTHING IS
BENEFICIAL, BUT AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH WILL DO LITTLE TO
DENT THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
A SLOW-MOVING BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOUISIANA WILL
MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS THE FORCING
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER TX/OK REACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY. ALL OF THE RAIN AND THUNDER IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE SHOULD JUST ENTER OUR CENTRAL TIME ZONE COUNTIES LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HERE ALONG ITS
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INCREASING ATLANTIC INFLUENCE ON THE AIR
MASS WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 55-65 DEGREE RANGE ON
SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
THE NEXT SHOT AT RAIN COMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A BROAD
FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN PINNED NEAR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST,
THANKS TO THE COLD AIR WEDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST DOWN THE CAROLINA
COASTAL PLAIN. SO A WEAK SURFACE LOW OR FRONTAL WAVE WILL RIDE
EAST ALONG THAT STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL NEVER MANAGE TO
PENETRATE INLAND OF COASTAL COMMUNITIES. STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE MOST LIKELY OVER INLAND AREAS. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE GULF WATERS AND PERHAPS THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL WAVE,
THERE WILL BE A STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE WHICH
WOULD HELP WITH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, BUT THAT MOST FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO BEACHFRONT COMMUNITIES
AND OFFSHORE.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER EAST AND
THE FORCING UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND DEAMPLIFIES. SO THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FURTHER WEST OVER OUR CENTRAL TIME ZONE
COUNTIES. WHILE MOST PLACES WILL GET UNDER 1 INCH OF RAIN, CAMS
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING VARIOUS POCKETS OF 2-INCH AMOUNTS IN THE
CENTRAL TIME ZONE. THE HREF FAVORS THE PANHANDLE COAST FOR HEAVIER
RAIN, WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF HAS THE HEAVIER TOTALS CLOSER TO THE
FL/AL STATE LINE IN THE FAVORED DEFORMATION AREA LEFT OF THE
SURFACE LOW. FOR THE EASTERN TIME ZONE, RAINFALL WILL MORE
CONFIDENTLY REMAIN UNDER 1 INCH.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER WELL INTO MONDAY, AS THE TRAILING
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES BY.
A SIGNIFICANT REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO BLAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST ROUNDS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE,
BUT THE ATMOSPHERIC LIFT THAT WILL COME WITH A STRONG 500 MB
HEIGHT FALL CENTER PASSING ACROSS GEORGIA, ALONG WITH SHARP FOCUS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT, COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OR
LIGHT RAIN AROUND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL QUICKLY
USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS FALL SEASON. MANY PLACES
COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 60S ON THURSDAY. FOR
HALLOWEEN, TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY BE RUNNING ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO BE READY TO BUNDLE
UP THOSE GHOSTS AND GOBLINS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL SUPPORT A SLOW INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS.
IF SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHTER THAN FORECAST TONIGHT, THEN WE
COULD MEET THE THRESHOLD FOR INCLUDING LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE
TAFS. FOR NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE SURFACE WINDS WILL HOLD UP ENOUGH TO
AVOID THAT NEED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
STRONG EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY THANKS TO A TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT, IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK LOW THAT
WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY STRONG AND POSSIBLY NEAR- GALE NORTHERLY BREEZES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC STARTED THE PROCESS OF
MOISTENING THE AIR MASS TODAY, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY. MANY PLACES WILL PICK UP A WETTING RAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF A WETTING RAIN OVER
PANHANDLE DISTRICTS. MOST PLACES WILL PICK UP LESS THAN 1 INCH OF
RAIN, BUT A FEW COASTAL PANHANDLE DISTRICTS COULD GET AS MUCH AS 2
INCHES. FOLLOWING THE RAIN, A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON MONDAY. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN AND THEN LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL MOSTLY BE 1 INCH OR LESS. A FEW COMMUNITIES
OVER THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA COULD GET UP TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN. IN LIGHT OF ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, THIS WILL FALL
WELL SHORT OF PRODUCING ANYTHING MORE THAN SHORT-LIVED NUISANCE
RUNOFF ISSUES IN URBAN AREAS. AMOUNTS UNDER 1 INCH WILL DO LITTLE
TO DENT THE DROUGHT.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
ONGOING DROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 61 81 64 75 / 0 10 50 50
PANAMA CITY 63 81 66 78 / 0 20 60 40
DOTHAN 58 78 60 69 / 0 20 70 40
ALBANY 57 78 59 66 / 0 10 60 50
VALDOSTA 60 81 62 73 / 0 10 50 50
CROSS CITY 62 84 65 81 / 0 10 30 50
APALACHICOLA 67 78 68 77 / 0 10 50 40
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ730-765.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT /2 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR GMZ751-
752-755-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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