404
FXUS62 KTAE 271444
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1044 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1043 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT STRESS AND ILLNESSES. STAY
HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED PLACES IF
POSSIBLE.
- AFTER A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND, AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TO RETURN NEXT WORK WEEK. SOME MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. REMEMBER, WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1043 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE US
TODAY, WHICH WILL START LOWERING OUR RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING OUR
TEMPERATURES. WE'LL STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SUPPORT FROM THE
SEA BREEZE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE AROUND 20-30%. DCAPE IS PRETTY HIGH THIS
AFTERNOON (AROUND 900-1100 J/KG) THANKS TO SOME SURFACE MIXING AND
SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT. SO IF STRONG STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP, THEY
COULD BE PRETTY GUSTY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS
THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL FADE DURING THE EVENING.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON SUNDAY, THEN OVER THE EASTERN US ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY, AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HARD
TO COME BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SUPPRESSION. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW OUR TEMPERATURES TO CREEP UP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST. THE QUESTION ON SUNDAY IS HOW MUCH
WE CAN MIX OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL AFFECT MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX VALUES. IT APPEARS INLAND AREAS WILL MIX OUT, BUT COASTAL
AREAS WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MAY NOT BE AS LUCKY. THUS, HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 ARE MOST LIKELY NORTH OF I-10, BUT THE
HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-110 WILL BE CONFINED SOUTH OF I-10.
HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES FOR THESE
AREAS. LIMITED NIGHTTIME RELIEF IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
ON MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NUDGED TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH OR FRONT MOVES DOWN TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS IS
ACCOMPANIED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BY A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. IT'D ALSO BE
POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD MOVE
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE BIG BEND. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR, THEN THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS WOULD INCREASE, ESPECIALLY WITH A BACKGROUND OF HIGH DCAPE
OUTSIDE OF STORMS. ELSEWHERE, THE SEA BREEZE MIGHT NOT MAKE MUCH
INLAND PROGRESS WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS PINNING THINGS CLOSER
TO THE COAST, SO RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE LOWER IN NORMALLY FAVORED SEA
BREEZE ZONES. ALSO, SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THIS SETUP. AS A RESULT, WE'LL STILL
BE ABLE TO EFFECTIVELY HEAT UP WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S. WE'LL ALSO BE A BIT MORE HUMID MONDAY AS A SLUG OF MOISTURE
MOVES IN, SO HEAT INDEX VALUES AREA WIDE WILL BE AROUND 105-113.
HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY FOR MORE OF THE AREA.
THE SURFACE TROUGH ENDS UP STALLING OVER OUR AREA ON TUESDAY, WHICH
WILL ENHANCE OUR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLED
WITH HIGH PWATS, SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST AND
EVENTUALLY FADE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK AGAIN WITH POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT
INDICES RETURNING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM NEAR DHN TO NEAR
ABY WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NEAR TLH AND VLD. THESE HAVE BEEN
PRODUCING IFR TO LIFR CIGS WITH A BIT OF PATCHY MVFR FOG. THUS,
FORALL BUT ECP, HAVE ADDED A TEMPO THROUGH 13Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME OF THESE QUICK REDUCTIONS IN CIGS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR ECP,
TLH, AND VLD, AND PROB30S REMAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
GENTLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL
BE AROUND 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINLY DURING
THE NIGHTTIME AND MORNING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND
10 MPH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TURNING MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY. DISPERSIONS WILL BE GOOD EACH AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FLORIDA ZONES TODAY WITH
LESS COVERAGE SUNDAY. AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES RETURNS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, INCREASING HEAT CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-110,
POSSIBLY HIGHER MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT,
WIDESPREAD FLOOD CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE
CHOCTAWHATCHEE AT BRUCE HAS CRESTED JUST ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE,
AND WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY. ACTION STAGES CONTINUE ON
THE REST OF THE LOWER CHOCTAWHATCHEE, UPPER CHIPOLA, OCHLOCKONEE,
AND ALAPAHA BASINS. NO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 93 76 96 77 / 30 10 10 10
PANAMA CITY 90 79 92 79 / 10 0 0 0
DOTHAN 92 73 93 75 / 10 0 10 0
ALBANY 93 75 94 76 / 10 10 10 0
VALDOSTA 93 74 95 76 / 20 10 0 10
CROSS CITY 94 75 97 77 / 30 10 10 0
APALACHICOLA 90 79 92 79 / 10 10 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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