974
FXUS62 KTAE 241939
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
339 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 337 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FROM
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
20-25MPH (OCCASIONALLY 30+ MPH) OVER LAND.
- MOSTLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER PREVAILS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN
ADDITION TO A WARMING TREND MAKING FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRONG 1037-MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THROUGH TOMORROW ACROSS THE
REGION, THUS MAKING FOR BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH.
SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO DEPICTS AN EAST-WEST
MOISTURE GRADIENT - AROUND 0.5" OR LOWER OVER OUR CENTRAL TIMEZONE
COUNTIES AND CLOSER TO 1" FOR LOCATIONS EASTWARD. SOME STRAY
SPEED- CONVERGENCE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AROUND
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, BUT WILL HAVE VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THANKS TO
A DRY AIRMASS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE REINFORCED BY THE DEVELOPING
LOW.
THE INFLUX OF ATLANTIC INFLUENCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AMIDST
ELEVATED WINDS ARE ENOUGH TO FOSTER MILDER LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THE LATTER SHOULD INHIBIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING BY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER "STIRRED UP".
WE ARE LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 50S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON - COOLER READINGS WITH NE EXTENT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT OCT
24 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY THE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
AND A WARMING TREND FOSTERED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH/NE AND AN STOUT UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOSING EASTWARD FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MATURE
FURTHER THIS WEEK, WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST MAINTAIN OR EVEN
STRENGTHEN THE REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES
ARE THEREFORE HERE TO STAY THIS WORK WEEK. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT OVERALL CHANCES ARE LOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE WIDESPREAD LOW 80S THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S WILL BE COMMON HEADING INTO MID-
WEEK. THEREAFTER, MIN TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S. THE COOLEST STRETCH IS SHAPING UP TO BE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET, THEN
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
A MIDDAY ASCAT PASS OVER THE EASTERN GULF SHOWED WIDESPREAD
SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS 0 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE FROM
OKALOOSA- WALTON COUNTY TO SUWANNEE RIVER UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CWF SYNOPSIS: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MAINTAINS FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WITH OCCASIONAL GALE TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
GUSTS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
A DRY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS
PREVAILING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE COMMON
TOMORROW, WHICH COULD MAKE FOR LESS THAN IDEAL BURNING CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, MIN RH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
REGARDLESS, THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS FURTHER DRYING OF FUELS AS RAIN
HAS LARGELY BEEN ABSENT SINCE THE START OF THE MONTH.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
LITTLE TO NO RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PRECLUDES
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 60 79 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 62 79 61 79 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 54 78 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 53 76 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 56 78 57 79 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 59 80 61 80 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 62 77 62 77 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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