047
FXUS62 KTAE 121038
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
638 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF SHOWERS PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS THIS
MORNING OFF THE BAY, GULF, FRANKLIN, WAKULLA, AND TAYLOR COUNTY
COASTLINE.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (40 TO 60%) OF NEEDING HEAT ADVISORIES
FOR HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 108 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF OUR
FLORIDA COUNTIES INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA ON SATURDAY. THOSE WHO
ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT OR DO NOT HAVE ACCESS TO ADEQUATE COOLING
OR HYDRATION COULD BE IMPACTED BY THE HEAT.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND (20-50%). HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO OUR AREA
BEACHES HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. IT IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED TO
ENTER THE SURF ON HIGH RISK DAYS. PLEASE HEED THE BEACH FLAGS
AND ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
ANOTHER MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH NEAR 90
ALONG THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION WITH ONLY VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED
ALONG THE SEABREEZE TODAY. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH
THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 108F ACROSS THE APALACHICOLA
NATIONAL FOREST AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND, BUT CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT 108F HEAT INDICES WILL BE ISOLATED IF THEY
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON, SO WE'LL FOREGO A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AND
JUST A SMIDGE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN TWO THINGS: 1) A FEW MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE AREA, BUT STILL LOW COVERAGE OVERALL, AND 2) SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEWPOINTS, WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDEX
VALUES. THUS, THERE REMAINS A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS OUR FLORIDA
COUNTIES INTO ADJACENT SOUTHERN GEORGIA. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
105-110F ARE EXPECTED, AND THE LOCAL CRITERIA IS 108F.
BEYOND SATURDAY, THERE REMAINS GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD SCALE TROUGH WILL
PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, FURTHER ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. AS A RESULT, THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES DECREASE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL BACK TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ECP AND TLH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEABREEZE PASSAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
MAINLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WITH SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS ALONG THE COAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEABREEZE. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
NEXT WEEK, STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN OUR
FLORIDA DISTRICTS. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 103 TO
107 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR SATURDAY. MINRH
WILL GENERALLY DROP TO BETWEEN 40 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS
WILL COME NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT FLASH OR RIVERINE FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, SOME POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR HEAVIER RAIN AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
IN THE MEANTIME, IT'S BEEN A VERY DRY START TO JUNE. THE
TALLAHASSEE AREA IS CURRENTLY TIED FOR THE 5TH DRIEST START TO
JUNE ON RECORD WITH ONLY 0.02 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR AT THE AIRPORT
THROUGH THE FIRST 11 DAYS OF THE MONTH. SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND
FLINT RIVERS AS THESE AREAS MISSED OUT ON THE MOST BENEFICIAL
RECENT RAINS. THE DROUGHT FEATURES LONG TERM IMPACTS THAT ARE
AFFECTING RIVERS, LAKES, AND PONDS THAT ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL
DESPITE RECENT RAINS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT
IMPACTS, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 95 76 96 76 / 20 10 40 10
PANAMA CITY 90 78 91 79 / 10 0 10 0
DOTHAN 95 76 96 75 / 0 0 30 20
ALBANY 95 78 96 77 / 10 10 30 20
VALDOSTA 95 77 97 77 / 20 10 40 20
CROSS CITY 94 77 95 77 / 20 0 20 10
APALACHICOLA 89 78 90 79 / 10 0 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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