886
FXUS62 KTAE 251837
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
237 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT JUST PASSING THROUGH
TALLAHASSEE AND VALDOSTA. THE ENHANCED CUMULUS FIELD ON SATELLITE
SHOWS THE AREA OF LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET.
WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION, THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF BETTER RADIATIVE COOLING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IN THIS SITUATIONS THE MOS TENDS TO PERFORM
BETTER THAN NBM, SO TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE MOS VALUES
FOR LOWS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WHERE MORE OF THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
BY DAYBREAK.
ON TUESDAY, A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND DRY ADVECTION CONTINUING, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS
TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS, RESULTING IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO
WHILE IT WILL STILL FEEL HOT, IT CERTAINLY WON'T FEEL HUMID, GIVING
A RESPITE FROM ALL THE SUMMER HUMIDITY OF THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS.
THIS PARTICULAR SETUP IN THE GRIDS WAS BEST HANDLED BY BLENDING THE
GUIDANCE WEIGHTED TOWARD THE MAVMOS FOR TEMPS 3:1 WITH THE NBM AND
FAVORING THE 25TH PERCENTILE NBM FOR DEWPOINTS BLENDED EVENLY WITH
THE MAVMOS DEWPOINTS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
A POST-FRONTAL DRY AIRMASS KEEPS RAIN CHANCES SQUASHED DURING THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THE FAIR WEATHER WILL FEEL LIKE AN EARLY TASTE OF
AUTUMN WITH PLEASANTLY WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOSTER UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS,
BUT FACTORING IN 50S & 60S DEW POINTS YIELDS COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S, WHICH ARE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST! PREVAILING NORTH WINDS KEEPS
THE SEABREEZE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS MODERATING ON THURSDAY AS EASTERLY WINDS
INITIALLY PUMP MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE, THE AXIS OF A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EARLY FALL PREVIEW PIVOTS TO
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS, THUS PLACING US IN NW FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS RIPPLES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN, THEN ROUNDING ITS
PARENT TROUGH'S BASE. IT APPEARS THAT THE SURFACE RESPONSE IS A
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR MCS PUSHING INTO THE MS
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK (GFS
- WESTWARD/ECMWF - EASTWARD) AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS, RAIN CHANCES
RETURN TO THE FORECAST WITH THE WEATHER LIKELY BECOMING INCREASINGLY
MORE WET/UNSETTLED LABOR DAY WEEKEND THANKS TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING INTO THE REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD -
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. INCREASED PRECIPITATION & CLOUD
COVER DROPS MAXT'S TO WIDESPREAD 80S THEREAFTER. LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S EACH MORNING. DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S MEANS SUMMER MUGGINESS BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED DESPITE
TURNING THE CALENDAR TO SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT CU WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET LEAVING SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD BEHIND THE
FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS:
PANAMA CITY TIDE STATION (8729108) - SUSTAINED EAST WINDS 3-4 KTS.
PANAMA CITY BEACH TIDE STATION (8729210) - SUSTAINED ENE WINDS NEAR
2 KTS.
WEST TAMPA BUOY (42036) - SUSTAINED WEST WINDS 13-14 KTS, 2-3-FT
SEAS, AND A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS.
AN ASCAT PASS NEAR 15Z HIGHLIGHTED LIGHT EAST WINDS ALONG/WEST OF
APALACHICOLA AND GENTLE BREEZES OVER APALACHEE BAY WITH A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
CWF SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND USHERS IN NORTHWEST BREEZES WHILE PUSHING MARITIME
CONVECTION MORE SOUTHWARD. CAUTIONARY TO NEAR CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEARSHORE LEGS ON TUESDAY. LIGHT TO GENTLE
OFFSHORE WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH. BY THIS WEEKEND, RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST
AS EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 10 MPH TODAY WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DISPERSIONS WILL BE
GOOD FOR MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO
THE 30S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. GIVEN RECENT WET
CONDITIONS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
PROLONGED PERIODS OF WET WEATHER FROM A STAGNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
LIKELY SATURDAY-SUNDAY. THE WPC DAY 5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
PLACES SE AL & MOST OF SW GA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4). IF
TRENDS CONTINUE, THEN PORTIONS OF NORTH FL MAY BE INCLUDED IN FUTURE
OUTLOOKS. ISOLATED NUISANCE AND/OR FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS. SIGNIFICANT RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. THE SITE SPECIFIC SOPCHOPPY RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN FALL BELOW ACTION STAGE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 68 93 67 91 / 10 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 70 93 69 91 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 65 90 64 88 / 0 10 0 0
ALBANY 63 90 63 88 / 0 10 0 0
VALDOSTA 65 92 66 91 / 10 0 0 10
CROSS CITY 69 95 67 94 / 30 20 0 10
APALACHICOLA 72 90 70 89 / 20 0 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...IG3
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page