315
FXUS62 KTAE 151040
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
640 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
- LONG-DURATION HAZARDOUS HEAT WAVE CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH EVEN
HOTTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOLLOWING THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES OFFER LITTLE RELIEF. PLEASE EXERCISE HEAT
SAFETY: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/HEAT.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) IS IN PLACE TODAY MAINLY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ARE
THE PRIMARY THREATS. SECONDARY THREATS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
- SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE HEAT WAVE APPEARS TO OCCUR SOME TIME
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WHICH LIKELY OPENS THE DOOR FOR
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS HAZARDOUS HEAT CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
PRIOR TO CONVECTION OVERSPREADING THE TRI-STATE AREA,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S. ADDING MID TO
UPPER 70S DEW POINTS YIELDS WIDESPREAD 108+ DEGREE HEAT INDICES,
THUS MAINTAINING A HEAT ADVISORY AREAWIDE FROM 11AM EDT TO 7PM
EDT. SOME LOCATIONS (E.G., EASTERN FL PANHANDLE/CENTRAL BIG BEND)
WILL FLIRT WITH EXTREME HEAT OF 113+ DEGREE HEAT INDICES.
NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OFFERS MINIMAL RELIEF.
LOOKING AT THUNDERSTORMS, WE WILL HAVE MULTIPLE FORCING
MECHANISMS: SEABREEZE FRONT, SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH, SUBTLE
DISTURBANCE(S) ALOFT, AND INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH. WHEN
COMBINED WITH HIGH INSTABILITY THANKS TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 2", CONVECTION SHOULD PACK A
PUNCH. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE,
WHICH WOULD BE MORE IMPACTFUL THAN NORMAL UNDER THESE
CIRCUMSTANCES. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
SEABREEZE FRONT AND ALONG/EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. SUBSEQUENT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL OR
INTENSIFY CELLS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER CONTINUE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAT
PRODUCTS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE LONG-TERM PERIOD. FROM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY INLAND LOCATIONS ARE LOOKING TO FLIRT
WITH 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES. EXTREME HEAT CONDITIONS APPEAR
INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY BY THEN AS WELL. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
UPPER 70S WILL OFFER EVEN LESS RELIEF COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS.
DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST,
BUT CONFINED MORE TO THE SEABREEZE ZONE.
BY MID TO LATE WEEK, A LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CHANGE ATTEMPTS TO
TAKE PLACE. A BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN US MAY FLATTEN/WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOMEWHAT
OF A BREAK IN THE HEAT WAVE. THE UNFORTUNATE SIDE EFFECT OF SUCH
A SHIFT IS OPENING THE DOOR FOR CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER. STAY
TUNED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT VLD DUE TO PATCHY
FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS. PROB30
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING AREA
TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIALLY
FAIR- WEATHER MORNING WATERSPOUTS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WEST BREEZES
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY AFTERNOON SEABREEZES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NEARSHORE LEGS. PREVAILING WEST WINDS BECOME
MODERATE TO START NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
THE MAIN FIRE CONCERNS ARE HAZARDOUS HEAT CONDITIONS PERSISTING
AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, DAILY CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, AND HIGH DISPERSIONS FOR PARTS OF SW GA &
SE AL ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S WILL BE COMMON WITH HEAT
INDICES OF 108 TO 113+ DEGREES. EVEN HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS, AND
LOCALLY WETTING RAINS ARE ADDITIONAL THREATS.
PREVAILING WEST WINDS ARE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF DAILY AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING IN URBAN, POOR-DRAINAGE, AND LOW-LYING AREAS. OTHERWISE,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ALL AREA RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING WELL BELOW ACTION
STAGE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 97 77 97 77 / 60 20 60 10
PANAMA CITY 94 80 95 81 / 40 10 40 0
DOTHAN 96 76 97 77 / 70 20 20 0
ALBANY 97 76 98 77 / 50 30 30 0
VALDOSTA 97 76 97 77 / 30 20 50 10
CROSS CITY 96 75 96 77 / 40 10 30 10
APALACHICOLA 93 79 94 81 / 40 10 40 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-
112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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