697
FXUS62 KTAE 110800
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
- FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND TOMORROW MORNING
AS WARM MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NE GULF.
MORNING TRAVELERS SHOULD LEAVE EARLY SO YOU HAVE TIME TO SLOW
DOWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FOG.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY, AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
EXPECT FOGGY MORNINGS THROUGH THURSDAY AS WARM MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER
THE COOL WATERS OF THE NE GULF. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY CAUSES FOG TO
START ALONG THE COASTLINE AND PUSH INLAND THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, PERSISTING INTO THE LATE MORNING. PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WILL
BE LIKELY, REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS. THUS, GIVE
YOURSELF AMPLE TIME TO GET TO YOUR DESTINATION IF TRAVELING AND
EXPECT DELAYS, ESPECIALLY WITHIN AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. SE ALABAMA AND SW GEORGIA WILL BE THE MAIN
BENEFICIARIES. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT AND BRINGS IN DRIER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY, LEADING TO
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
MODELS REMAIN LOCKED IN TO OUR NEXT COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE HAS NOT CHANGED, WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A FAIRLY ROBUST LLJ AROUND 40-50 KTS. WE LOOK TO BE
PLACED UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK,
WHICH PROVIDES ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT ON TOP OF PVA. SO, OUR
CURRENT LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE IS THERE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMICS TO
SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS DEW POINTS HITTING
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION, IF WE HAVE ENOUGH
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO SEE SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. IF WE REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST, THEN WE'LL
LIKELY SEE LIMITED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
AFTER SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT WINDS WILL COME OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
LOW-CONFIDENCE FCST THIS TAF CYCLE WITH RESPECT TO FOG/LOW STRATUS.
COVERAGE LOOKS SPOTTY AT BEST AS THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR AS
FAVORABLE COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TERMINALS ARE GENERALLY LOOKING AT
OCSL MVFR RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT INTO MID-MORNING IN ADDITION TO
-SHRA/-RA INVOF DHN/ABY/VLD/VLD BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. LESS CLOUD
COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS AFTN FOLLOWED BY A BAND OF -SHRA SWOOPING
FROM NW-SE WHERE PROB30S ARE IN PLACE FOR DHN/ABY/VLD NEAR THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL AOB 11 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME SEA FOG IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, MOST LIKELY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS (20-50 PERCENT) TO THE AREA TODAY. A DRIER AIRMASS
TEMPORARILY ARRIVES THURSDAY BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS INCREASED THE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND TO
AROUND 1.5 TO 3 INCHES. ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECASTS AREN'T ENOUGH TO
INDUCE FLOODING CONCERNS, FOR NOW, BUT THEY MAY BE SLIGHTLY
BENEFICIAL FOR IMPROVING ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 77 53 72 46 / 30 10 0 10
PANAMA CITY 72 54 70 48 / 20 20 0 10
DOTHAN 77 48 69 44 / 30 20 0 0
ALBANY 77 45 68 40 / 50 20 0 0
VALDOSTA 77 49 71 42 / 40 30 0 10
CROSS CITY 73 54 75 45 / 20 20 10 10
APALACHICOLA 69 54 66 49 / 20 20 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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