739
FXUS62 KTAE 091618
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1218 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
- RECURRING ROUNDS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK. USE CAUTION ON YOUR MORNING COMMUTES SHOULD
YOU ENCOUNTER DENSE FOG.
- FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN.
- LOW (LESS THAN 30%) CHANCE OF 1" OR MORE OF RAIN WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT'S FORECAST TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. WE WILL BE MONITORING THE
EVOLUTION OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) WHICH IN ITS
EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT WHILE CROSSING EASTERN OK INTO AR. THE
NEAR-STORM AND DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.
MORNING SOUNDINGS AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS KBMX SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DECENT SPEED SHEAR. DIURNAL INSTABILITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD FURTHER FUEL THE MCS AS IT RIDES THE CREST OF A
MID-UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF MOST, IF NOT ALL
CONVECTION UNTIL THE EVENING HRS, BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT-TO- CHANCE
(15-30%) POPS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE WIREGRASS IN CASE THE MCS
TRACKS FASTER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
FOG HAS TAKEN ITS TIME TO DEVELOP SO FAR THIS EVENING WITH ONLY
PATCHY DENSE FOG SO FAR. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO
DISRUPT FOG FORMATION, BUT WE SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE NO LAND-BASED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT, ONE MAY BE NECESSARY LATER IN THE
MORNING.
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET OVER TOP OF US THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE NEITHER THIS NOR THE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE INCREDIBLE SOURCES OF LIFT, BUT A COUPLE
ISOLATED STORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTH
OF I-10 AND WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS WELL AS GOOD 3-6 KM
SHEAR. THUS, A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO BRIEFLY
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE, HIGHS
WILL RISE TO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THIS EVENING, WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH AN MCS UPSTREAM IN NORTHERN OR
CENTRAL AL THAT MAY SCRAPE THE NORTHERN TIER OF OUR AREA AFTER
SUNSET. INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING, SO THE MAIN DRIVER WOULD BE
COLD POOL DYNAMICS. IF IT MAKES IT TO OUR AREA, THEN THE THREAT OF
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING, MAINLY
NORTH OF US 82. SPC HAS OUTLINED SOUTHEAST AL AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST GA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 1 OF 5).
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, LOCALLY DENSE
IN SPOTS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
STRONG RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO
HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (EXCEPT NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST). THIS
IS NEAR RECORD HIGH TERRITORY. FOG CONTINUES TO BE A NUISANCE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
TIMING OVERALL HAS SLOWED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IT'S
STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WILL MATERIALIZE.
THERE IS AMPLE SHEAR, BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LACKING IN MOST
MODELING. ALSO, UNLESS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED OR OUT OF PHASE, MOST OF THE FORCING WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTH. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.
COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. HIGHS WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN
REBOUND BACK TO THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL ALSO SLIDE
INTO THE 40S, SLOWLY RISING BACK TO THE 50S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
VFR HAS RETURNED TO THE TERMINALS AS OF LATE MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR VSBY/CIGS TONIGHT ALL SITES;
LIFR VSBY MORE PREVALENT AT ECP, DHN, AND TLH, WITH IFR CIGS
AT ABY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS VLD WHICH MAY ONLY LOWER TO THE
MVFR CATEGORY. THUNDER CHANCES/POPS WERE TOO LOW FOR A PROB30.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED ABOUT AN HOUR EARLIER
THAN ITS 15Z EXPIRATION TIME ALONG THE NEARSHORE LEGS FROM
OKALOOSA-WALTON COUNTY TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. AN EXTENSION IN TIME
WAS MADE FOR THE NATURE COAST NEARSHORE LEGS AND SOUTHERN
APALACHEE BAY NEAR BUOY 42036 WHERE SEA FOG IS STILL APPARENT
UNTIL 4PM EDT.
CWF SYNOPSIS:HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SEA FOG REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN
UNTIL THEN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZES. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY, AND WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
GALE FORCE GUSTS. NEVERTHELESS, MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
DISPERSIONS WILL BE GOOD AWAY FROM THE COAST, WHERE INFLUENCE FROM
THE COOLER WATERS REMAINS. WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS WEDNESDAY,
SOME AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AL, SOUTHWEST
GA, AND THE INLAND FL PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS, HAIL, AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME STORMS TODAY, BUT
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL LIKELY NOT LEAD TO FLOOD CONCERNS
EITHER AS STORMS WILL BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY. NBM HAS A 30-50%
CHANCE OF SEEING 1 INCH OF RAIN OR MORE, BUT THE LREF (COMPRISED
OF GEFS, GEPS, AND EPS) ONLY HAS A LESS THAN 30% CHANCE. FOR NOW,
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER GUIDANCE GIVEN THE DISTANT FORCING AND
FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS. DROUGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN
HYDROLOGIC IMPACT. FOR MORE ON DROUGHT IMPACTS LOCALLY, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 83 64 86 62 / 0 10 0 0
PANAMA CITY 78 65 80 64 / 0 10 0 0
DOTHAN 83 65 85 64 / 10 20 0 0
ALBANY 85 64 85 62 / 0 30 0 0
VALDOSTA 86 63 87 61 / 0 10 0 0
CROSS CITY 85 60 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 75 65 76 64 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ730-765-
775.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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