901
FXUS62 KTAE 231707
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
107 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
- SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE OR WORSEN WITH
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
- HAZE AND SMOKE MAY PRESENT ISSUES FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE
RESPIRATORY CONDITIONS TODAY DUE TO WILDFIRES. LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS MAY FEATURE THE POOREST AIR QUALITY.
- WARM AND FAIR WEATHER WILL MAKE BEACHES ATTRACTIVE. BE AWARE OF
WHAT BEACH FLAGS ARE FLYING AND WHAT THEY MEAN WITH RESPECT TO
RIP CURRENTS IF VISITING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY MID-MORNING, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HAZE AND SMOKE FROM SEVERAL WILDFIRES. AIR
QUALITY MAY BE DEGRADED AT TIMES. FOR THOSE WHO HAVE RESPIRATORY
CONDITIONS, USE CAUTION IF YOU NEED TO BE OUTDOORS WHEN SMOKE IS
PRESENT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S,
EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE, OTHER THAN TO SET UP A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT, CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW
WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON TUESDAY. AS
AN EXAMPLE, THE 01Z NBM PERCENTILE RANGE FROM THE 5TH TO 95TH
PERCENTILE FOR MAXT IS 18F AT ALBANY (63F-81F), 17F AT VALDOSTA (65F-
82F), AND 16F AT TALLAHASSEE (70F-86F). THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA, AND THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
OVERALL WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN GIVEN THAT THE NAM IS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE, AND IT GENERALLY PERFORMS WELL IN THIS
TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN. A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE (20-40%) ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT
ANY RAINFALL WILL NEITHER BE WIDESPREAD NOR SIGNIFICANT.
BEYOND TUESDAY, ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO PICK BACK UP
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AND ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HAZY SKIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY WITH THE REMAINING WILDFIRES IN THE
AREA AND WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BLOWING THE SMOKE OVER THE
TERMINALS, MAINLY TLH. HOWEVER, VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING OUR WINDS NORTHERLY AND BECOMING EASTERLY
BY MID-MORNING TUESDAY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT,
AND THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD BLOW AWAY THE SMOKE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1004 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
GENTLE WESTERLY BREEZES OVER THE MARINE ZONES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE AIR MAY BE A LITTLE HAZY AS SMOKE FROM
LAND-BASED WILDFIRES BLOWS OVER THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL
SHIFT OUR WINDS NORTHWESTERLY TO EASTERLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
BRIEF SURGE IN EASTERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL BE ONE TO TWO FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALONG WITH HIGH MIXING
HEIGHTS, DISPERSIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN ITS
WAKE. CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO ACTUALLY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITY
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. DROUGHT REMAINS
OUR ONLY HYDROLOGIC CONCERN. SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT IMPACTS,
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 62 73 58 74 / 0 10 20 20
PANAMA CITY 62 75 60 74 / 0 0 10 10
DOTHAN 57 73 54 71 / 0 10 30 20
ALBANY 57 68 52 67 / 10 10 40 20
VALDOSTA 60 68 55 71 / 10 10 30 20
CROSS CITY 58 73 58 79 / 0 10 10 20
APALACHICOLA 61 72 59 71 / 0 0 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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