437
FXUS62 KTAE 240048
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
848 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 837 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
- SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THANKS TO INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS.
- ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY ON
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA INTO TONIGHT AS A DEEPENING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL BASICALLY
BRING AN END TO OUR SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WITH OUR FIRST TRUE PLUNGE
INTO FALL. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WILL FADE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND PUSH OFFSHORE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
WE WILL FIND OURSELVES WEDGED WITH NORTHEAST FLOW COMING DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S NORTH OF I-10 WITH MID 80S SOUTH OF I-10. SOME
MODELS SHOW EXTENSIVE STRATUS AGAIN THURSDAY LINGERING MOST OF THE
DAY, SO OUR HIGHS COULD STILL NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE. SOME GUSTS OF
20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER IN WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH LOW
HUMIDITY. WE MAY SET UP A RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP NEARLY OVERHEAD, LEADING TO CLEAR
SKIES, LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, AND DRY AIR. LOWS COULD DROP INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS
WELL, BUT IT'LL TAKE UNTIL MID-WEEK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 837 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
AN AREA OF STRATUS IN EAST GEORGIA IS MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE
TRI-STATE REGION. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF TAFS BEING IMPACTED
AFTER 5Z FIRST AT VLD AND ABY THEN DHN AND TLH TOWARDS 9-10Z. MVFR
CIGS AT ALL SITES WITH TEMPO IFR AT VLD AND ABY. CONDS TO IMPROVE
AT DHN AND TLH TOWARDS LATE MORNING BACK TO LOW VFR BUT MVFR CIGS
MAY REMAIN AT ABY AND VLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, REMAIN 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 18-22 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTER 15Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BREEZES WILL FRESHEN
HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND COULD BE NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD AT LEAST EXERCISE CAUTION THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO ABOUT 3 TO 5 FEET. WINDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST US.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY TRANSPORT
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. MIXING HEIGHTS
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 3,500 OVER THE GA ZONES TO 4,500 OVER
THE FL ZONES. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY GOOD DISPERSIONS, THOUGH HIGH
DISPERSIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE APALACHICOLA NF. WINDS STAY ELEVATED
ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS, SO DISPERSIONS WILL BE
HIGH AREA-WIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY, WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TO AROUND 10 MPH, BUT RH VALUES WILL
DROP DOWN TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS WITH MID-20S TO LOW 30S. THUS,
PERHAPS ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IF WINDS END UP HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 71 85 65 82 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 72 87 67 85 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 68 82 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 68 80 61 80 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 69 83 63 80 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 72 87 66 84 / 10 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 73 86 68 83 / 10 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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