072
FXUS62 KTAE 310257
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
957 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 956 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SE AL, SW GA, AND FL
PANHANDLE SATURDAY MORNING.
- EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE REGION STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN INTENSE ARCTIC BLAST ARRIVES WITH DANGEROUSLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.
- GALE WARNING FOR ALL OUR MARINE ZONES. MARINE WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 KTS AND HIGH SEAS WILL LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR SE AL AND FL
PANHANDLE COUNTIES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES ARE LIKELY DUE TO DOWNED TREES.
- GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT VULNERABLE
PEOPLE, PETS, PIPES AND PLANTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 956 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
NO UPDATES WERE MADE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
AN INCREDIBLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS LOOKS TO BEGIN SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY PIVOT TO BEING NORTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ACROSS
ALL OF OUR CENTRAL TIME ZONE COUNTIES IN SE ALABAMA AND THE FL
PANHANDLE WILL BE SUSTAINED AT AROUND 25 MPH, WITH GUSTS AROUND 40
MPH THROUGHOUT SATURDAY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
COUNTIES. TO THE EAST, ACROSS SW GEORGIA AND THE FL BIG BEND WE'LL
SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH.
IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE FOLLOWING FORECAST PACKAGE EXPANDS THE WIND
ADVISORY EASTWARD SHOULD MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDE INCREASED CONFIDENCE.
THESE STRONG WINDS WHEN COUPLED WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA)
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. WE'RE
TALKING ABOUT FEEL-LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AND BETWEEN 0 DEGREES AND 5
DEGREES, ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
HYPOTHERMIA ONSET WILL BE QUICK AS COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
EFFICIENTLY PULL HEAT FROM ALL LIVING THINGS THAT ARE OUTSIDE.
SHELTERING AND MINIMAL EXPOSURE WILL BE INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING
AND A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NOON ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
POST-FRONTAL WE'LL SEE WINDS DECREASE THROUGHOUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND A
GRADUAL WARMING PERIOD COMMENCES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WARM FROM THE LOW
20S MONDAY MORNING INTO THE UPPER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. DAYTIME
HIGHS FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY STRUGGLING TO
MAKE IT TO 45 DEGREES INCREASING INTO THE MID 60S BY WEDNESDAY. OUR
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER HIT OF COLD AIR POSSIBLE. FOR NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS NEXT
SHOT OF COLD AIR WON'T BE AS INTENSE AS THE COLD FRONT WE'LL SEE
THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS THE FORECAST BECOMES
REFINED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT WILL USHER IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OR EXCEED 30
KNOTS AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT KDHN AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS
BEFORE BECOMING VFR AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTS THE WINDS TONIGHT. BEHIND
THE FRONT, WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45KTS FOR OUR OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES (20 TO
60 NM) ON SATURDAY. A GALE WARNING WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF OUR MARINE ZONES. THERE WILL BE
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS OVER APALACHEE BAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHICH
MAY LEAD TO IMPACTFUL LOW TIDES. THIS COULD RESULT IN NAVIGATIONAL
ISSUES. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE FOR SATURDAY FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD
FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40
MPH. DISPERSIONS WILL BE VERY HIGH WITH VALUES ABOVE 100 UNITS AND
ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS ABOVE 6000 FEET. MINRH VALUES ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 30-40 PERCENT. THIS LEADS TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY, THE WINDS WILL HAVE COME DOWN
A LITTLE, BUT HIGH DISPERSIONS, AND CRITICALLY LOW RHS REMAIN.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS. THERE WILL BE STRONG OFFSHORE
WINDS OVER APALACHEE BAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO
IMPACTFUL LOW TIDES. THIS COULD RESULT IN NAVIGATIONAL ISSUES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 34 41 21 43 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 33 41 23 46 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 28 35 20 42 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 31 38 19 43 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 35 44 20 43 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 39 51 19 46 / 10 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 35 42 23 44 / 0 0 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 1 PM EST /NOON
CST/ SATURDAY FOR FLZ007>013-016-108-112-326.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/
SATURDAY FOR FLZ007>014.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY TO 1 PM
EST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-
114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST /9
AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-
118-127-128-134-326-426.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST
/9 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR FLZ108-112-114.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ108-112-114-115.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ SATURDAY TO 7 AM
EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR FLZ114.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
GAZ120>124-142.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST SATURDAY FOR
ALZ065>069.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
ALZ065>069.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
ALZ065>069.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ730-
755-765-775.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ735-
751-752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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