009
FXUS62 KTAE 240627
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
227 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES INTO THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. BEACHGOERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT LIFEGUARDS ON SURF
CONDITIONS AND DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF IF RED OR DOUBLE
RED FLAGS ARE FLYING.
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS OF 40-60 MPH, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS,
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM STORMS.
SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY UNDER
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
A SHORTWAVE REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST OVER THE ARKLATEX AS WE
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. A FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS MORNING IS AN MCV
(MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX) CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS. THIS FEATURE, IF IT
CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD, COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE WESTERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. EVEN IF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV WEAKENS, ITS PRESENCE COULD ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PWATS
TODAY REMAIN IN THE 1.8 TO 2 INCH RANGE, MEANING STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOWER TODAY, BUT THERE WILL BE A
LITTLE BIT MORE DCAPE PRESENT. ADDITIONALLY, THE ADDITIONAL LIFT
AND SPIN COULD ENHANCE OUR THREAT OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS. WHILE WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND
STORMS AROUND TODAY, THE ORGANIZATION AND MECHANISMS DRIVING THE
STORMS ARE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS CURRENTLY DON'T HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE ONGOING SETUP. SPC HAS OUTLINED THE ENTIRE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY FOR THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD THE MCV HAVE MORE INFLUENCE OVER OUR
WEATHER TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY FADE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CUTS OFF ON MONDAY, STILL PUMPING IN
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS CUTOFF LOW GETS ABSORBED
AS THE OVERALL TROUGHINESS IN THE WEST BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MID TO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER, THE
FORECAST FOR US REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME WITH PWATS STILL AROUND
1.8 TO 2 INCHES. EACH DAY WILL FEATURE THE SAME OVERALL FORECAST:
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNINGS, THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS, FADING SLOWLY AFTER SUNSET. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS, AND SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS MOVE SLOWLY OR TRAIN. HIGHS STAY IN
THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
TONIGHT, CIGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR/IFR AT ALL SITES. FOG IS
MORE UNCERTAIN, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. CIGS
RISE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH TSRA DEVELOPMENT AGAIN AFTER 18Z
AFFECTING MOST SITES. ECP HAS THE LOWEST CHANCE FOR TSRA OF THE
TERMINALS SO IT WAS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAF. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER/NEAR
AREA TAF SITES TODAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS AROUND 1-3 FEET. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL YIELD GOOD DISPERSIONS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNINGS,
THEN MOVING INLAND AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS, THOUGH THESE TOTALS
CAN OCCUR WITHIN A FEW HOURS FROM SOME OF THESE STORMS. LOCALIZED
HIGH-END TOTALS FOR THE WEEK COULD EXCEED 6 INCHES. GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE, STORMS COULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD STORMS TRAIN OR MOVE SLOWLY. RIGHT NOW, GIVEN HOW
LOW OUR RIVERS HAVE BEEN FROM THE PROLONGED DROUGHT, RIVER FLOODING
IS NOT A CONCERN.
THE RECENT AND FORECAST RAINFALL IS EXTREMELY BENEFICIAL FOR OUR
DROUGHT SITUATION. SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE AREA, BUT THE RAINFALL SHOULD HELP EASE IMPACTS. FOR THE LATEST
ON DROUGHT IMPACTS, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 88 73 86 73 / 50 20 60 20
PANAMA CITY 86 74 86 74 / 50 40 70 40
DOTHAN 87 70 84 69 / 80 40 80 60
ALBANY 88 69 85 69 / 70 40 80 50
VALDOSTA 87 70 87 70 / 70 40 80 40
CROSS CITY 89 72 91 72 / 40 20 50 40
APALACHICOLA 84 76 84 76 / 40 20 50 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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