916
FXUS62 KTAE 020951
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
551 AM EDT FRI JUN 2 2023
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT FRI JUN 2 2023
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE
AREA TODAY, TAKING THE SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WITH IT. IN ITS WAKE,
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE
AREA, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL TODAY WITH ONLY 20-30% CHANCES
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE MAY LINGER.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR
90 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT FRI JUN 2 2023
HIGHEST POPS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL BE ALONG THE I-10 AND I-
75 CORRIDORS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST FL BIG BEND. MOST OF THIS
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW, THE MAIN DRIVERS WILL BE THE EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE
AND THE GULF SEA-BREEZE, WHICH WILL BE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WILL COME FROM CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WITH MORE
ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY USHERING IN LOWER PWATS, THAT SHOULD BE THE
DRIER DAY OF THE THREE. SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID THRU THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT FRI JUN 2 2023
AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATE PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK, WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED ALOFT, WITH PWAT MODELED TO
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON TUESDAY. SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND GENERALLY
WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY, WITH POPS RANGING FROM 20 TO 40 PCT ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS IS CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY JUNE. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LOWER 90S EACH DAY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT FRI JUN 2 2023
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 REMAINS OFFSHORE AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT FRI JUN 2 2023
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES. MORE
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A SURGE OF EASTERLY WINDS MAY REACH 20
KNOTS AT TIMES. BEYOND THIS, MORE TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT FRI JUN 2 2023
HIGH DISPERSIONS WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH A COMBINATION OF HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS AND ELEVATED
TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH FROM THE NORTHEAST. THESE HIGH
DISPERSIONS MAY CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS AS WELL.
OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT FRI JUN 2 2023
AS WE GET INTO THE RAINY SEASON WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING THE NORM, PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW A HALF INCH OF
RAINFALL. AS SUCH, NO THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 88 68 90 68 / 10 0 20 10
PANAMA CITY 87 69 88 69 / 0 0 20 10
DOTHAN 87 66 88 67 / 10 0 10 10
ALBANY 87 66 89 66 / 0 0 20 10
VALDOSTA 87 66 87 65 / 10 10 30 10
CROSS CITY 88 67 89 66 / 30 20 30 20
APALACHICOLA 83 72 84 71 / 10 0 20 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ750-
752-770-772.
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LF
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