674
FXUS62 KTAE 271719
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
119 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 118 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
- FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
FRIDAY MORNING.
- RAIN-FREE WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
STOUT UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN US MAINTAINS WARM, FAIR WEATHER
WITH PREVAILING NORTHEAST BREEZES. A STEADY WARMING TREND CONTINUES
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. A BIT OF NW-SE LOW-TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT:
LOW TO MID 50S IN SE AL, SW GA, AND FL PANHANDLE AND UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK WITH MOISTURE ALSO ON THE
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR MEXICO/TEXAS.
FAIR WEATHER APPEARS TO MOSTLY HOLD OUT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY ON
HALLOWEEN, BUT WE MAY SEE SHOWERS AS EARLY AS THAT EVENING, THUS
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING OUTDOOR/TRICK-OR-TREATING PLANS.
THEREAFTER, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST, AND PEAK ON SUNDAY
AS THE APPARENT REMNANTS OF TC VANCE (FORMERLY OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC) INTERACTS WITH A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS (SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG) ALSO
CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE
ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES MARKEDLY BY MONDAY FOLLOWING
ITS EXIT TO OUR NE.
WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD. A SLIGHT "REPRIEVE" IN THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH IS
ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AS HIGHS GET KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES OR
SO. VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH READINGS
IN THE LOW TO EVEN MID 60S, PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
BREEZES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL RESUME TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES, AND THIS IS WHERE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS WILL BE AROUND 3-6 FEET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
A GRADUAL MOISTENING TREND GETS UNDERWAY TOMORROW, BUT THE WEATHER
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. OVERALL FIRE CONCERNS
APPEAR MINIMAL WITH GOOD TO FAIR AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS. HOWEVER,
FUELS WILL CONTINUE DRYING UNTIL RAIN RETURNS SOME TIME EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
LITTLE TO NO RAIN PRECLUDES HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 58 82 63 82 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 58 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 51 79 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 50 79 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 55 82 62 81 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 61 83 66 84 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 61 79 65 79 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
GMZ752-755-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page