513
FXUS62 KTAE 241339
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
939 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
- ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HAZARDOUS HEAT FOCUSING THE
MOST OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL BIG
BEND. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES
IN THAT REGION - 12PM EDT/11AM CDT TO 7PM EDT/6PM CDT.
- STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER IS IN PLACE NEARLY AREAWIDE.
- THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE MONITORED FOR STORM ACTIVITY
DIVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AMIDST OTHERWISE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN OF SEASONABLE HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. WE
WILL STILL BE WATCHING A DEVELOPING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER MS, LA, AND SW AL THIS
AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS COMPLEX OR ITS OUTFLOW COULD
CLIP OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER EAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE ANOTHER ROUND OF HAZARDOUS HEAT
AND BETTER OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE CULPRITS ARE A STRONG,
BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL MS/AL/GA.
STRONG RIDGING TO OUR WEST, 850-MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 19C AND 70+
DEW POINTS YIELDS WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND THE MID 90S
AND TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDICES. THE LATTER RANGES FROM 108-112
DEGREES OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL BIG
BEND WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED - 12PM EDT/11AM CDT TO
7PM EDT/6PM CDT. TONIGHT'S LOWS DROP TO THE LOW 70S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION WAS FAIRLY LIMITED THANKS TO RELATIVELY
DRY AIR IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING. HOWEVER, THE
AIRMASS APPEARS A BIT MORE MOIST THIS MORNING WITH SATELLITE-
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 1.6-1.9" RANGE. A NOTABLE DRY
MID-LEVEL LAYER WILL BE CONTRIBUTING TO DCAPE AT OR ABOVE 1000
J/KG AMIDST HIGH CAPE FROM STRONG DIURNAL HEATING. TOSS IN THE
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION AND WE ARE POISED TO SEE ROBUST
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG-DAMAGING GUSTS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND PERHAPS SMALL TO MEDIUM-SIZED
HAIL. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) THAT IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY FROM
THE NW. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE TO OUR WEST, BUT ANY
EASTWARD DEVIATION CAN HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR US.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY ON
TUESDAY FOR SIMILAR REASONS DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT-TERM SECTION.
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
WILL FEATURE PERSISTENT RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND TROUGHING TO OUR
NORTH. THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP PLACES US IN NW FLOW ALOFT, WHICH
MEANS WE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING THE UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENT FOR
ANY DISTURBANCES ALOFT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SE MOVING MCS'.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME CONSISTING OF
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S (BUT MOSTLY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT INDICES), WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S, AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FORCED BY THE SEABREEZE AND
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
BY THIS WEEKEND, SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OR TWO ATTEMPTING TO CROSS THE FL
PENINSULA FROM THE ATLANTIC. THESE FEATURES WOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY
HOTTER TEMPERATURES (PERHAPS RETURNING ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT) AND
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND, SOUTH-
CENTRAL GA, AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BLOSSOM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IMPACTING KTLH AND KVLD, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
THE TEMPO GROUPS THERE WITH PROB30S ELSEWHERE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS
THANKS TO PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.
THE MAIN MARINE THREATS ARE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG, GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, POTENTIAL WATERSPOUTS, AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY FROM HEAVY RAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
THE MAIN FIRE CONCERNS ARE HAZARDOUS HEAT IN PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL BIG BEND (INCLUDING THE
APALACHICOLA NAT'L FOREST) TODAY AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATTER WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG TO ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY WETTING RAINS.
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS FROM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE SEABREEZE. WEST TO SW WINDS PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
DAILY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
NUISANCE OR FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN, POOR-DRAINAGE, AND LOW-LYING
AREAS. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALL AREA RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING WELL
BELOW ACTION STAGE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 96 75 92 74 / 60 20 70 20
PANAMA CITY 93 77 90 76 / 20 40 60 40
DOTHAN 95 73 93 73 / 30 20 60 10
ALBANY 96 74 95 74 / 10 10 50 10
VALDOSTA 95 74 94 73 / 50 20 60 30
CROSS CITY 94 75 91 74 / 40 30 70 30
APALACHICOLA 92 78 89 77 / 30 40 70 40
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ012>016-027-112-114-115-127-326-426.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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