516
FXUS62 KTAE 160714
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
314 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
- POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. ALL HAZARD REMAIN POSSIBLE: SCATTERED DAMAGING
GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH, A FEW TORNADOES (A COUPLE MAY BE STRONG),
AND LARGE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH. PLEASE ENSURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE
WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL LOCAL
BEACHES WITH GALE TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS.
- A LATE SEASON FROST/FREEZE IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHTS WITH FREEZING TO SUB-FREEZING WIND CHILLS. A FREEZE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST AL,
THE FL PANHANDLE, AND MOST OF SOUTHWEST GA. ADDITIONAL FREEZE
PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY NEEDED FOR TOMORROW NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
INTENSE SQUALL LINE OR QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS)
ATTENDANT TO A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POISED TO REACH OUR SE AL &
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED
CELLS OUT AHEAD OF IT POSING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. ALL HAZARDS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE QLCS WILL CARRY
THE BIGGEST DAMAGING WIND THREAT, IN ADDITION TO EMBEDDED
CIRCULATIONS CAPABLE OF DROPPING BRIEF TORNADOES. ANY DISCRETE TO
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE GOING TO CARRY THE GREATER TORNADO
THREAT IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL AND STRENGTH, PLUS LARGE HAIL. THE
MOST CONCERNING LOCATIONS ARE SE AL, ADJACENT COUNTIES IN THE FL
PANHANDLE & SW GA, AND THE I-75 CORRIDOR. POTENTIAL IMPACTS:
DOWNED TREES/POWERLINES, POWER OUTAGES, DAMAGE TO
PROPERTIES/STRUCTURES. REMEMBER THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A WATCH (BE
PREPARED) AND WARNING (TAKE ACTION). ENSURE THAT DO NOT DISTURB
IS DISABLED AND WEA ALERTS ARE ENABLED ON YOUR PHONES SO THAT ANY
OVERNIGHT TORNADO WARNINGS CAN WAKE YOU.
THE LATEST STORM(S) MOST LIKELY ARRIVAL TIMING ESTIMATES ARE
NEARLY THE SAME AS YESTERDAY'S: 3AM-6AM CDT - SE AL, FL PANHANDLE;
7AM-10AM EDT - SW GA (WEST OF I-75), CENTRAL FL BIG BEND;
9AM-12PM EDT - SOUTH-CENTRAL GA, SE FL BIG BEND. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THESE PROJECTIONS ARE MORE COMPLICATED THAN NORMAL IF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE CLUSTERS ENOUGH AND
ESSENTIALLY BECOMES THE NEW DOMINANT QLCS OR THE ORIGINAL ONE
(RE)INTENSIFIES WHILE CROSSING THE APALACHICOLA-FLINT RIVER BASIN.
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT CEASES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY
TRAILING SHOWERS.
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAYTIME HRS MEANS A SHARP
HORIZONTAL THERMAL GRADIENT WITH TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING A NON-
DIURNAL TREND. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 50S TO MID 70S FROM
NW TO SE! LOCATIONS TO THE WEST ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THEIR
HIGHS IN THE MORNING VS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS PROMPT HAZARDOUS
BEACH CONDITIONS, WHICH IS ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY GIVEN THAT IT'S
SPRING BREAK TIME. FOR TONIGHT, STRONG COLD-AIR ADVECTION PROMPTS
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN 30S AND SUB-FREEZING WIND CHILLS. A FREEZE
WARNING GOES INTO IN EFFECT AT OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR SE AL,
THE FL PANHANDLE, AND MOST OF SW GA UNTIL MID-TO-LATE TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS LATE-SEASON FREEZE MAY BE MORE IMPACTFUL TO
AGRICULTURE THAN USUAL GIVEN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS THAT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO EARLY
PLANTING/BLOOMING. TUESDAY'S HIGHS ARE IN THE 50S UNDER A MIX OF
SUN AND UPPER CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
CONSISTING OF A WIDESPREAD INLAND LIGHT FREEZE WITH SOME PATCHY
FROST UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING IS GOING TO BE
NEEDED, BUT WILL BE HELD OFF UNTIL THE CURRENT ONE EXPIRES.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING LATE-WEEK WHILE DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THANKS TO SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE 70S
THURSDAY-FRIDAY, THEN JUMP THE LOW-TO-MID 80S SATURDAY-MONDAY AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHILLY
MORNING FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE 50S THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH THE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS DHN/ECP WILL START TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THE COLD
FRONT WITH TLH/ABY BEING NEXT AROUND DAYBREAK, WITH VLD BEING LAST
AROUND LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT, CIGS
WILL LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED,
ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY ROBUST MARITIME
CONVECTION. OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GALE-FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA, ESPECIALLY 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OFF THE EMERALD COAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING SAINT ANDREWS BAY. STRONG NW BREEZES
PERSIST INTO EARLY TUESDAY, THEN FRESHEN OUT OF THE NORTH INTO
THAT AFTERNOON. MODERATE NE BREEZES OVERTAKE THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA TODAY. WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. STORM ARRIVAL TIME IS MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HRS FROM THE AL WIREGRASS INTO THE
APALACHICOLA- FLINT RIVER BASIN. THE SEVERE THREAT ENDS BY THE
AFTERNOON, BUT GUSTY SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
NW IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. OVERALL GUSTY CONDITIONS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH DISPERSIONS. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
LEADS TO CRITICALLY LOW RH NEARLY AREAWIDE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY,
RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS. RAIN IS ABSENT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
THE ONLY NOTABLE RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS THROUGH
TODAY. FORECAST AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF
AN INCH TO JUST OVER AN INCH (ISOLATED HIGHER). LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY BENEATH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND/OR WHERE
ANY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERING MAY OCCUR. THE 0Z HREF 3-HR QPF SHOWS A
50-70% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1" WITH LOCAL CAMS SHOWING UP TO ~15%
CHANCE OF 3" FOCUSED JUST SE OF THE LOWER I-65 CORRIDOR. FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH LOCAL RUNOFF ISSUES OR PONDING OF
WATER MAY OCCUR IF THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.
WHILE THIS UPCOMING RAIN SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL, OUR ONGOING SEVERE
(D2) TO EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT IS VERY UNLIKELY TO IMPROVE IN THE
SHORT TERM. LONGER-TERM PROSPECTS ARE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CPC DAY
8- 14 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK AS OF MARCH 15TH, SHOWING WIDESPREAD
33-50% PROBABILITIES OF (LEANING) BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION -
VALID MARCH 23RD-29TH.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITES:
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. SPOTTERS SHOULD SAFELY REPORT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND/OR DAMAGE BY CALLING THE
OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 71 35 56 33 / 80 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 70 39 56 37 / 80 0 0 0
DOTHAN 63 29 53 28 / 90 0 0 0
ALBANY 68 30 53 29 / 90 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 71 33 56 30 / 80 10 0 0
CROSS CITY 76 35 59 29 / 70 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 72 38 55 37 / 80 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/ TO 10 AM EDT /9 AM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR FLZ007>013-016-326.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GAZ120>131-
142>148-155>158.
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
GMZ730-735-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ751-752-
770-772.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
GMZ751-752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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