397
FXUS62 KTAE 200640
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
240 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
- SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE OR WORSEN WITH NO
RAINFALL AND A WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
- WARM AND FAIR WEATHER WILL MAKE BEACHES ATTRACTIVE. BE AWARE OF
WHAT BEACH FLAGS ARE FLYING AND WHAT THEY MEAN WITH RESPECT FOR
RIP CURRENTS IF VISITING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND RECORD BREAKING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES ALONG WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE
EAST COAST WILL KEEP US DRY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND TO THE UPPER
50S ALONG THE PANHANDLE BEACHES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES, THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAIN MAKERS ON THE WAY FOR US WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, WHICH MAY KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES, BUT
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. HIGHS REMAIN MOSTLY IN
THE 80S AND LOWS STAY IN THE 50S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A LIGHT WIND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST THIS MORNING TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRESCRIBED BURNS AROUND THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY IN FLORIDA, MAY LIMIT VISIBILITY AT TIMES LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
GENTLE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL BECOME WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. BREEZES BECOME MORE
MODERATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND REMAIN MODERATE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
NEAR CRITICAL RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. LIGHT NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. HIGH MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY LEAD TO FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. OVER THE WEEKEND, DISPERSIONS BECOME HIGH ACROSS INLAND
AREAS AS WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND MIXING
HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH. DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL ENHANCE THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO AID
IN INCREASING MOISTURE, KEEPING RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THIS
WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. DROUGHT REMAINS
OUR ONLY HYDROLOGIC CONCERN. SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR NOW HAS A SWATH OF
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROW OF GEORGIA COUNTIES FROM
GRADY COUNTY EASTWARD AND INTO THE UPPER SUWANNEE BASIN. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT IMPACTS, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 77 51 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 74 58 75 62 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 76 51 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 76 50 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 76 49 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 77 46 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 69 56 73 61 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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