442
FXUS62 KTAE 301834
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
234 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
105-112, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT STRESS AND
ILLNESSES. STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR-
CONDITIONED PLACES IF POSSIBLE.
- STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS, AND
REMEMBER: WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
- DANGEROUS HEAT MAY RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AGAIN,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT STRESS AND ILLNESSES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AT THE MOMENT,
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. DCAPE VALUES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM 1000-1300 J/KG, WHICH IS HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30 KTS. THIS CONTRIBUTES
TO THE DAMAGING WIND GUST RISK TODAY. ALONGSIDE THAT, PWATS ARE
NEARLY 2 INCHES, WHICH AMPLIFIES THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS. THE
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF THE REGION IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF
5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY, LEAVING OUT A PORTION OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL GEORGIA ALONG AND EAST OF I-75. THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-10. HOWEVER, I WOULD DESCRIBE THIS AS MARGINALLY
MARGINAL. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS BUT WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE IN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS THE GULF THIS EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS THE HEAT. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SE ALABAMA, THE
EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FL BIG BEND DUE TO FORECAST HEAT
INDICES OF 108 DEGREES. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE
MID-90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-70S. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT, THE TROUGH BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION, ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AS
WELL AS WARMER TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHT RELIEF IN
THE WAY THAT DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER, REDUCING THE HEAT INDEX FOR
THE DAY. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS AND HOT TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE MID-70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL STILL DOMINATE AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO
SOUTHERLY, ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND WITH POPS AROUND
40-60 PERCENT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 102-110 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAIN IN THE MID-70S. AS THIS WILL BE A HOLIDAY WEEKEND, I WANT
TO EMPHASIZE THAT THE HEAT WILL BE OF CONCERN FOR THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED. MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, EVEN WITH THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT AT AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. KABY TO
HAVE THE LOWEST PROBS OF IMPACT, TO HAVE LEFT WITH A PROB30. WILL
HAVE TEMPOS AT OTHER TERMINALS. ONCE ACTIVITY WANES THIS EVENING,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE, ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR SHORE
WATERS. ERRATIC WINDS WITH STRONG GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS ARE POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH THE STORMS TODAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARINE WATERS TONIGHT
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN BEHIND. THIS WILL LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH, WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT AT A GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZE. A SOUTHERLY SHIFT CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND HOTTER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE DRIER AIR WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES AT
AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR MOST AFTERNOONS WITH POPS LESS THAN 10%
EACH DAY. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S, SO IT WILL
STILL BE HOT. MINRH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S AND 40S
PERCENTS, ABOVE CRITICAL CONCERNS. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE EASTERLY AT AROUND 5-10 MPH, WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AND
WESTERLY FOR THE WEEKEND. DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE HIGH DURING
THE AFTERNOONS OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO
RETURN BY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER THAT WILL ALLOW FOR
DISPERSIONS TO LESSEN. MIXING HEIGHTS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL EXCEED
6000 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF INCHES
OF RAIN IN LOCALIZED AREAS, LEADING TO NUISANCE FLOODING IN LOW-
LYING/POOR-DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FOR THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. A FEW RIVERS ON THE LOWER CHOCTAWHATCHEE AND THE
OCHLOCKONEE BASIN ARE IN ACTION STAGE, BUT NO ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IS EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 96 72 96 / 10 0 0 10
PANAMA CITY 77 94 77 93 / 20 10 0 10
DOTHAN 75 95 73 95 / 20 0 0 0
ALBANY 75 95 71 96 / 10 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 73 96 70 95 / 10 0 0 10
CROSS CITY 72 94 72 95 / 10 30 0 40
APALACHICOLA 79 92 79 91 / 40 0 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ007>018-027-108-112-114-115-118-127-326-426.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ155-156.
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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