466
FXUS62 KTAE 211218
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
818 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 818 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
- THERE ARE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY DUE TO LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY WITH NO
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND AS A
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. MARINE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE-FORCE
GUSTS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.
- WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING DAYTIME HOURS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A DRY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 818 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COASTAL LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
OFF THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL KEEP US IN A REGIME
OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE FILTERING IN DRY AIR. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST KEEPS US IN THE PERSISTENT PATTERN
OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
ABLE TO TAKE EFFECT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ALLOWING OUR LOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND, AND LOW 50S FOR
OUR COASTAL COMMUNITIES. THE LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY
ALSO LEAD TO RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN OUR ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA COUNTIES WHERE IT WOULD BE COOLER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
MORNINGS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM, THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW
WILL BE ABSORBED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FAR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP AS A RESULT AROUND THE CARIBBEAN AND BAHAMAS, EXTENDING
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WELL TO OUR NORTH, IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION, THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP FIRST AND PUSH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO NORTH FLORIDA THAT WILL REINFORCE OUR
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL TIGHTEN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AS A RESULT OF THIS, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 25-35
MPH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THROUGHOUT THIS, LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN GATHERED FROM THE ATLANTIC (OUR BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT) TO PRODUCE A COUPLE OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND BUT, CHANCES ARE NIL AT THIS
TIME.
AS WE START THE WORK WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN. WHEN THAT HAPPENS, OUR WINDS WILL
LESSEN AND WIDESPREAD GUSTS WILL DECREASE.
FOR THE LONG TERM, TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S IN THE AFTERNOONS, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-10, AND MID TO UPPER 50S
SOUTH OF I-10, ESPECIALLY IN THE SE BIG BEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
CONTINUED VFR CONDS THIS CYCLE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NE LATER THIS MORNING AND MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO ABOUT 15 KTS. WINDS THEN SLACKEN AFTER
SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS AROUND 1-3 FEET. ON FRIDAY, A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE WATERS, REINFORCING OUR
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. NEAR GALE-FORCE GUSTS COULD BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ELEVATED
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MAINLY ABOUT THE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
THAT WE'VE BEEN HAVING. MINRH FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY RANGE FROM
THE LOW 20S% TO THE LOW 30S%. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH AND DISPERSIONS GENERALLY BEING
FAIR TO MODERATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE REGION. EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WE CAN EXPECT A
LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN FROM A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL
INCREASE OUR HUMIDITY VALUES JUST ENOUGH TO BE ABOVE CRITICAL.
STILL, NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER OUR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
WIREGRASS DISTRICTS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
NO HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 80 50 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 79 53 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 78 49 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 78 45 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 79 46 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 81 48 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 77 57 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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