345
FXUS62 KTAE 270701
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
301 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY THE NEXT
TWO AFTERNOONS.
- THE 90 DEGREE HIGHS AREN'T DONE YET AS THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH
(60 TO 90%) CHANCE OF MOST OF OUR AREA EXPERIENCING 90 DEGREE HEAT
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST,
REINFORCED BY A NOR'EASTER OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THIS LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO WHIP PV SOUTH VIA SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CUTOFF LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST GULF WATERS ON MONDAY WITH
PWATS THAT PUSH UP INTO THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE OFFSHORE, AT THE
FAR TAIL END OF INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM. RAIN CHANCES,
GENERALLY 25% OR LESS, WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR COASTAL AND
MARINE ZONES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST FL BIG BEND. INLAND AREAS WILL
SEE RAIN CHANCES BE NEAR NIL AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY AIR PUSHES
SOUTHEAST. BY TUESDAY THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE
NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND AND BACK TO NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES WE GO
AREA- WIDE AS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT DEPARTS.
LATE TUESDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST ALLOWING WINDS TO CLOCK AROUND TO BEING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
UNFORTUNATELY MEANS TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BACK IN THE 90S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDS CONTINUE WITH UPPER CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING
FROM WEST TO EAST. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST TO
NW LATER THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTN 5-8 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL PROVIDE LIGHT
TO GENTLE WESTERLY BREEZES THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP
TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS THE HIGH SCOOTS EAST OF OUR AREA. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RUN 2 FEET OR LESS. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES
RETURNING LATER IN THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TODAY AND MONDAY AS
RH VALUES DROP TO BETWEEN 20 TO 35 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. SURFACE
AND TRANSPORT WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AT
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN DRY RECENTLY. WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY TUESDAY AND BEYOND, ALLOWING MOISTURE TO STREAM BACK
INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO AROUND 20% THURSDAY,
MAINLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE, BEFORE INCREASING EVEN MORE HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
GENERALLY, LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 89 61 89 63 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 87 66 88 68 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 88 57 87 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 89 55 89 58 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 88 57 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 86 65 88 67 / 0 0 10 0
APALACHICOLA 85 70 86 71 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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