929
FXUS62 KTAE 250631
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
231 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES CONTINUES TODAY.
BEACHGOERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT LIFEGUARDS ON SURF CONDITIONS
AND DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF IF RED OR DOUBLE RED FLAGS ARE
FLYING.
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS OF 40-60 MPH, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS,
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM STORMS.
SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY UNDER
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN EXTRA
FOCUS FOR TODAY'S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALOFT, WE'LL HAVE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOME CUT OFF OVER EASTERN TEXAS WHILE RIDGING
TRIES TO NOSE IN FROM THE EAST. THIS SQUEEZE PLAY CONTINUES TO
BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO OUR AREA WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE FLORIDA COUNTIES. STORMS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE MID MORNING, THEN
PUSH NORTHWARD AS THE SEA BREEZE ADVANCES INLAND. THERE WILL BE
SOME DCAPE FOR STORMS TO WORK WITH THIS AFTERNOON -- AROUND
700-900 J/KG. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS OVER
40 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE YET AGAIN WITH
LOCALIZED HIGH-END RAIN TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES, ESPECIALLY WHERE
STORMS MOVE SLOWLY OR TRAIN. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DURING THE EVENING, BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA.
HIGHS WILL BE KEPT DOWN IN THE 80S GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL NOSE INTO OUR EASTERN AREAS
ON TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS AROUND 1.6
TO 1.8 INCHES. MEANWHILE, TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
FUNNEL IN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS WITH PWATS OVER 1.8
INCHES. THUS, RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHWEST GA (60-80%) WITH LOWER
CHANCES IN THE BIG BEND (30-60%). A SIMILAR PATTERN TO TODAY IS
EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING,
THEN PUSHING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE RIDGING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS OUR
AREA WITH SOMEWHAT OF A RESPITE FROM VERY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. THERE
STILL WILL BE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH
DAYS, BUT IT WON'T BE AS WIDESPREAD AS RECENT DAYS. STILL GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ALONG THE GULF COAST, DRAWING IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE YET AGAIN
WITH PWATS LIKELY SURGING BACK TO 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALSO FEATURE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA NEXT WEEKEND. THUS, OUR CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL RETURN YET
AGAIN IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 80S, THOUGH SOME
LOW 90S MAKE A RETURN TO THE BIG BEND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
REMAIN IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR/MVFR AT MOST SITES TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS ABY/DHN/ECP. CONFIDENCE ON FOG IS LOW, BUT WITH THE MOIST
CONDITIONS IN PLACE, WE CAN'T RULE OUT 1 TO 1/2SM MILE
VISIBILITIES AT TAF SITES. TSRA WILL GET AN EARLY START NEAR ECP
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. TLH WILL BE
RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES AS TSRA WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE TERMINAL, SO ONLY HAVE PROB30S THERE WITH
TSRA LIKELY PREVAILING DURING THE AFTERNOON AT ABY/DHN WHERE
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN OUTSIDE AREAS OF
IFR/MVFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH SEAS AROUND 1-3 FEET. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE WEEK. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL YIELD GOOD DISPERSIONS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST IN THE
MORNINGS, THEN MOVING INLAND AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HOWEVER, OVER RECENT
DAYS, WE'VE SEEN THESE TOTALS ACHIEVED WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS GIVEN
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN OUR AREA. REASONABLE HIGH-END TOTALS OF 6
TO 8 INCHES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN THE HIGH
RAIN RATES WE'VE SEEN AND INCREASINGLY WET SOILS, THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS WITH LOCALIZED DAILY TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. BEYOND TODAY, THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY IF THEY ARE SLOW
MOVING OR TRAIN.
RIVER LEVELS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING, BUT WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING IS
STILL NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS GIVEN HOW LOW THE
RIVERS WERE TO BEGIN WITH. IT WILL STILL TAKE ON THE ORDER OF 7-10
INCHES OF RAIN TO CAUSE MINOR FLOODING ON MOST AREA RIVERS.
THE RECENT AND FORECAST RAINFALL IS EXTREMELY BENEFICIAL FOR OUR
DROUGHT SITUATION, THOUGH THE EASTERN BIG BEND HAS MISSED OUT ON
MOST OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SEVERE TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THE RAINFALL
SHOULD HELP EASE IMPACTS. FOR THE LATEST ON DROUGHT IMPACTS, PLEASE
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 85 71 87 71 / 60 20 40 30
PANAMA CITY 84 74 85 74 / 80 50 50 30
DOTHAN 81 69 83 69 / 90 50 80 30
ALBANY 84 68 85 68 / 90 60 70 30
VALDOSTA 86 69 89 69 / 80 40 50 20
CROSS CITY 91 72 93 71 / 40 40 30 40
APALACHICOLA 84 76 84 76 / 60 30 40 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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