863
FXUS62 KTAE 180048
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
848 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 824 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE OF HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND HAVING A LOW CHANCE OF HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 95. THE HEAT
MAY AFFECT THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE, ESPECIALLY WITHOUT
COOLING/HYDRATION.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 824 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
STORMS. ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABOUT TO GET UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND I-75 CORRIDOR AS THE APALACHEE BAY SEA BREEZE
MOVES INLAND AND WILL LATER COLLIDE WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS AMPLE DCAPE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
1000 J/KG. THUS, SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE
OF STRONG DOWNBURSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND MAYBE
SOME HAIL. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
SUWANNEE VALLEY OUTLINED IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL
1 OF 5). ELSEWHERE, IT WILL JUST BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY FADE DURING THE EVENING, THOUGH WE MAY
SEE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEVELOP FROM THE THESE STORMS THAT MOVES
WESTWARD LATE EVENING, PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF EASTERLY GUSTS
AROUND 15-25 MPH AND A FEW SHOWERS. LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS WHERE WINDS GO LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE QUITE WARM IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S.
FOR MONDAY, SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST, WHICH
WILL SHOVE OUR RAIN CHANCES MORE TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA ALONG THE EMERALD COAST SEABREEZE. THERE WILL YET
AGAIN BE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DCAPE FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US, AND SOME
DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES AGAIN WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD 90S. THE FL BIG BEND HAS A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF HIGHS
AT OR ABOVE 95 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ACROSS THE FL COUNTIES, WHERE
IT WILL BE MORE HUMID, HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH 100 IN
ISOLATED SPOTS. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT COULD AFFECT THOSE WHO ARE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND THOSE WHO DO NOT HAVE ACCESS TO ADEQUATE
COOLING OR HYDRATION.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN US TRIES TO MOVE EASTWARD. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE SUMMER-
LIKE FORECAST RESUMES AGAIN WITH IT BEING HOT AND HUMID WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON POP-UP STORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 824 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BUT PATCHY FOG CAN'T BE
RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY AT ABY/VLD WHERE RAINFALL WAS RECEIVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY SO ANY TSRA
ACTIVITY IS NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE TAFS, BUT IF WE GET ANY
STORM ACTIVITY, IT'S LIKELY TO BE ACROSS ECP/DHN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. EASTERLY NOCTURNAL SURGES ARE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH THE STRONGEST SURGES POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT WHERE WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS,
ESPECIALLY IF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS ON LAND MOVE OVER THE
WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
AND I-75 CORRIDOR AS MIXING HEIGHTS CLIMB TO NEAR 7,000 FEET WITH
EASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE
MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY, BUT MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER,
YIELDING GOOD DISPERSIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA. LIGHTER TRANSPORT WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY, THEN MORE VARIABLE WEDNESDAY. DISPERSIONS BOTH
DAYS WILL BE GOOD AREA WIDE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS AS THE SEA BREEZE ADVANCES INLAND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. THESE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME NUISANCE FLOODING, MAINLY IN URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE
THE RAIN IS BENEFICIAL, SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT
CONDITIONS IS NOT EXPECTED. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT
IMPACTS, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 70 91 70 91 / 10 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 71 86 70 87 / 0 10 0 10
DOTHAN 66 88 67 89 / 10 20 0 10
ALBANY 67 89 66 89 / 30 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 66 91 66 91 / 50 0 0 10
CROSS CITY 68 94 68 94 / 30 0 0 30
APALACHICOLA 74 82 73 84 / 0 10 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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