490
FXUS62 KTAE 151329
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
929 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 929 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
- A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
IMPACTING TREES AND POWER LINES.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING EXISTS
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. IT IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF ON HIGH
RISK DAYS. PLEASE HEED THE BEACH FLAGS AND ADVICE OF LOCAL
OFFICIALS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 929 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
FOR TODAY, ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED AS WAVES OF EASTWARD
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN AHEAD MOVE INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT HIGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND STRONG-GUSTY
WINDS. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN IS ACROSS THE WIREGRASS
AND FLINT RIVER VALLEY WHERE A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF
4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE. ANY TRAINING AND/OR
BACKBUILDING STORMS WILL ENHANCE FLOOD POTENTIAL.
FORCING FROM THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO KEEP CONVECTION LINGERING INTO
THE EVENING DESPITE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REGARDING THE
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY, DCAPE WILL BE LESS THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO FURTHER MOISTENING OF THE AIRMASS. HOWEVER,
THE ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW IS ACTUALLY FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG FOR
JUNE STANDARDS LOCALLY WITH WESTERLY 850 MB WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS
EXPECTED. THIS COULD ADD SOME MOMENTUM TO THE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TODAY IN WHAT WILL STILL BE A HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT. WE
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES GENERALLY FROM 95-105F. LOWER RAIN
POTENTIAL ALONG THE COAST MAKES THE BEACHES AN ATTRACTIVE OUTDOOR
OPTION, BUT STAY COGNIZANT OF THE RIP CURRENT RISK AND BEACH FLAGS
IF VISITING TODAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK THANKS
TO THE EXPECTED LINGERING PRESENCE OF A STAGNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ATTENDANT TO A BROAD NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. FURTHER
COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLUG OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND INTERACTING
WITH THE FRONT ALONG THE LOWER MS VALLEY MID TO LATE WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES ARE THEREFORE HIGH NEARLY AREAWIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD, MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOONS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
CLOUD COVER INCREASES AMIDST RAIN-COOLED AIR. READINGS INCREASE TO
THE UPPER 80S-LOW 90S FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 70S WILL REMAIN COMMON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
ECP WITH A PROB30. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVIER
TSRA, OTHERWISE VFR. TONIGHT, GUIDANCE INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, HIGHEST AT ABY, BUT THIS REMAINS A
LOW PROBABILITY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, MAINTAINED VFR FOR NOW.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE. THE HIGHEST FORECAST RAIN CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
MARITIME CONVECTION WILL POSE A GUSTY WIND, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
AND A WATERSPOUT THREAT. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN ELEVATED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
AN INCREASINGLY WETTER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE STARTING TODAY WHEN
A SLOW MOVING FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA. HIGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE FORECAST GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 WITH WETTING RAINS
EXPECTED. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL IN ADDITION TO DAILY
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT TO RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN, MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HALVES OF THE AREA. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COUPLED WITH HIGH PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT IT WOULD TAKE ABOUT
3-5 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 3 HOUR PERIOD TO RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING, OR 4-6 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD. RIVER REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, SO
SIGNIFICANT RIVERINE FLOODING IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 92 74 86 73 / 90 50 80 60
PANAMA CITY 89 76 86 75 / 40 40 60 80
DOTHAN 89 71 79 70 / 90 60 80 80
ALBANY 91 71 80 70 / 90 70 90 80
VALDOSTA 92 72 85 71 / 90 50 80 70
CROSS CITY 92 77 91 75 / 20 40 40 50
APALACHICOLA 89 79 87 77 / 10 10 50 70
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page