835
FXUS62 KTAE 050505
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
105 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
- GENERALLY DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEARSHORE AND
OFFSHORE WATERS. THERE IS ALSO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST ALLOWING FOR A
SLOW MOISTURE RETURN AND LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR WESTERN MOST
COUNTIES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE GREAT PLAINS BY
THE TUESDAY AND BEYOND ALLOWING FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION. LIGHT FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE SEA
BREEZE TO BECOME THE PRIMARY TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE. A BIT OF A SEABREEZE AT ECP
TURNS WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
ADVISORY LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT OR EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. PREVAILING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL FOSTER MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAKENING
NOCTURNAL SURGES. DAILY AFTERNOON SEABREEZES WILL DOMINATE ONCE
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
PREVAILING EASTERLY WINDS. THE MAIN FIRE CONCERNS ARE HIGH
AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. LOW-END RAIN
CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE & SE AL THIS
WEEKEND. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS FOR THE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME MODEST RAIN
CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE
CURRENTLY LIGHT.
RECENT RAINFALL HAS INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE, BUT LONG TERM
DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN. AS OF JUNE 4TH HOWEVER, ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND HAVE SHOWN
IMPROVEMENT
THERE ARE NO RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITES:
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 67 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 70 88 71 88 / 0 10 0 10
DOTHAN 64 88 68 88 / 0 10 10 10
ALBANY 65 89 68 89 / 0 0 0 10
VALDOSTA 64 90 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 66 94 69 95 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 74 85 73 86 / 0 0 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR FLZ108-112-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ730-755-
765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ751-
752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM....WOOL
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
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