005
FXUS62 KTAE 161744
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
144 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
IMPACTING TREES AND POWER LINES.
- OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINS.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE WEST FACING BEACHES OF GULF COUNTY. IT IS
STRONGLY DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF ON HIGH RISK DAYS. PLEASE
HEED THE BEACH FLAGS AND ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TODAY'S FORECAST WERE REQUIRED. EXPECT ANOTHER
ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY,
THOUGH A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THE CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CENTERED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES
OVER 2 INCHES.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE OBS INDICATE A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS FOCUSING FEATURE
WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY STRONG WITH SOME CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN THE BASE OF AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP 500 MB LONGWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWESTERLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW WILL VARY IN THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE, AND 700 MB WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE WELL IN EXCESS OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF FLOW, THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIR MASS, AND A FOCUSING
FRONT, PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE
FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. A QUICK 2-3
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED BENEATH HEAVIER STORMS. ISOLATED TOTALS OF
3-5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING OCCURS.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES HAVE COME DOWN A BIT GIVEN THE POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THE CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS
AROUND 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS OR 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 6 HOURS
WOULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN
ON MONDAY. THE 00Z HREF SHOWS LOW CHANCES (10-15 PERCENT) OF
EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. WHILE THE CHANCE LOOKS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH RIGHT NOW, TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK AND CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
SATURATED.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST AND
NORTH OF US. THIS LOW WILL EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE, AND
THE FLOODING THREAT MAY INCREASE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS
ON THE PREVIOUS DAYS AND CONTINUES TO SATURATE THE GROUND. THE
HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA, AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
FOR THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND.
ONCE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, A SURFACE FRONT WILL
SETTLE SOUTH IN ITS WAKE TO NEAR THE GULF COAST. THIS COULD BE A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH WITH LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS THRU THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND TMRW.
USED THE LATEST HRRR & LOCAL CAMS GUIDANCE TO UPDATE THE TIMING
OF -TSRA/TSRA VIA TEMPO GROUPS ON THE FRONT END AND PROB30 ON THE
BACK END. A CONVECTIVE LULL TAKES PLACE TONIGHT, THOUGH THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING -SHRA. OTHERWISE, A MIX OF VFR-MVFR CONDS ARE
FCST WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TMRW
MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
MODERATE SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
BECOMING FRESH OR POSSIBLY STRONG SOUTHERLIES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. ONCE LOW PRESSURE HAS
EXITED ON SATURDAY, A REDUCTION TO GENTLE WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY,
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THICK CLOUD
COVER, AND WETTING RAINS. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND SUDDEN GUSTY
WINDS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOR TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED NEAR A
SLOW-MOVING SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN AL/GA. A QUICK 2-3 INCHES
CAN BE EXPECTED BENEATH HEAVIER STORMS. WHERE TRAINING OR
BACKBUILDING OCCURS, ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY
RAIN SHOWS THAT IT WOULD TAKE ABOUT 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 3 HOUR
PERIOD TO RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, OR 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 6
HOUR PERIOD. THE 00Z HREF SHOWS LOW CHANCES (10-15 PERCENT) OF
EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. WHILE THE CHANCE LOOKS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH RIGHT NOW, TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK AND CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
SATURATED.
RIVERS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS,
SO SIGNIFICANT RIVERINE FLOODING IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAVE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT. IF THAT OCCURS,
IT MAY BE EASIER TO ACHIEVE FLASH FLOODING AFTER TODAY'S
RAINFALL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 88 73 85 77 / 80 80 60 10
PANAMA CITY 86 75 86 80 / 90 80 70 20
DOTHAN 79 71 84 75 / 90 80 80 20
ALBANY 79 70 84 75 / 90 90 90 10
VALDOSTA 87 72 85 76 / 90 80 80 10
CROSS CITY 92 75 89 78 / 60 70 40 10
APALACHICOLA 87 77 86 81 / 80 60 50 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...IG3
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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