649
FXUS62 KTAE 121020
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
620 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
- A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WITH MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISKS. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED SPACES, AVOID STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES
DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY, AND WEAR LIGHT CLOTHING.
- SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY WITH SOME BECOMING
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
OUTLINED FOR SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN BIG BEND FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
A H5 RIDGE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TODAY, WHICH
WILL KEEP OUR POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT GOING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WE
SHOULD SEE OUR DEW POINTS MIX OUT A BIT HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
BUT THEY WILL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE OUR HEAT INDICES TO
REACH ADVISORY LEVEL ACROSS OUR FL COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN ROW OF GA
COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE OUR HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THAT IT WILL BE QUITE HOT AND HUMID, WE'LL ALSO HAVE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL HELP SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCE IS ROUGHLY ALONG AN ALBANY-
VALDOSTA LINE. DCAPE WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1000 J/KG THANKS TO SOME
DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THAT PLUS A LITTLE BIT OF NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS NEAR 15 KT COULD AID IN SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS OF 40-
60 MPH. SPC HAS OUTLINED OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES INTO THE EASTERN BIG
BEND IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THIS
AFTERNOON'S STORMS. STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ELSEWHERE.
THESE STORMS SHOULD FADE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
RIDGING REALLY DOESN'T BUDGE ON THURSDAY, SO WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OUR HAZARDOUS HEAT THREAT. THE WEAK TROUGHING LOOKS TO BE TO OUR
EAST ON THURSDAY, SO RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT
AND MAINLY BE FORCED BY THE SEA BREEZE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S ON THURSDAY. HEAT INDICES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE IN THE 105-112 RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, AND ANOTHER
HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE HEAT
INDICES HIGHER THAN THIS, BUT IT MAY BE LOCALIZED ENOUGH TO NOT
ISSUE AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH OR WARNING AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BE THE PEAK OF OUR HEAT WAVE AS
OUR RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT TO OUR WEST AND AMPLIFIES. IN FACT, THE LREF
MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS APPROACH 600 DAM, SIGNIFYING A VERY STRONG
RIDGE. WE'LL ALSO HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE ROUND THE RIDGE INTO OUR
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND, SO OUR HIGHS DON'T REALLY BUDGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 90S (MAYBE A COUPLE 100S), BUT OUR HUMIDITY MAY INCREASE A
BIT MORE. WE COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES WIDESPREAD OF 108-115 EACH
DAY. IF THIS TREND HOLDS, THEN EXTREME HEAT WATCHES OR WARNINGS
COULD BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES. THE CAVEAT WILL BE
THAT WITH THE RIDGE MOVING TO OUR WEST, WE COULD DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE RIDGE THAT WOULD BRING US INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. THIS
USUALLY MANIFESTS ITSELF IN CLUSTERS OR ORGANIZED STORMS THAT
SOMETIMES ARE STRONG TO SEVERE. OF COURSE, AT THIS JUNCTURE, THERE'S
JUST TOO MUCH VARIABILITY TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS.
GIVEN THIS VERY PROLONGED HEAT EVENT THAT COULD EXTEND WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK, IT'S VERY IMPORTANT TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY, ESPECIALLY
WITH SOME SCHOOLS STARTING AGAIN. HEAT IMPACTS COMPOUND WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE DAY. HERE ARE SOME HELPFUL SAFETY REMINDERS:
- STAY HYDRATED, EVEN IF NOT THIRSTY. THAT INCLUDES PEOPLE AND PETS.
- LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE HOTTEST PARTS OF THE
AFTERNOON.
- WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT, LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING.
- TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED SPACES.
- ALWAYS CHECK THE BACK SEAT FOR CHILDREN AND PETS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE ANY BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR IN ANY SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED AND NOT
NECESSITATE MORE THAN A PROB30 GROUP. HOWEVER, THE GREATER CHANCES
FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN
TERMINALS NEAR TLH, ABY, AND ESPECIALLY VLD AFTER 19Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND
BAYS IS POSSIBLE AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EACH AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO LAND AREAS, BUT
NEARSHORE MORNING SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD POSE A WATERSPOUT RISK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON,
GENERALLY STARTING NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON, THEN MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ANY ORGANIZED COMPLEXES OF STORMS THAT WOULD
GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS. OTHERWISE, HAZARDOUS HEAT
WILL BE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-115.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
LOCALIZED NUISANCE-TYPE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SLOWLY EACH AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FLOOD
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 97 77 97 77 / 20 10 20 0
PANAMA CITY 93 80 94 79 / 10 10 30 0
DOTHAN 96 76 96 77 / 30 20 10 0
ALBANY 95 76 97 77 / 40 20 10 0
VALDOSTA 96 76 98 77 / 50 20 20 10
CROSS CITY 96 76 96 76 / 10 20 30 10
APALACHICOLA 93 79 92 79 / 10 0 20 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-
112-114-115-118-127-326-426.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ155>160.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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