726
FXUS62 KTAE 071038
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
638 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- INCREASING HEAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THOSE
WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT OR DO NOT HAVE ACCESS TO ADEQUATE
COOLING OR HYDRATION COULD BE IMPACTED BY THE HEAT.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG ALL AREA BEACHES. IT
IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF ON HIGH RISK DAYS. PLEASE
HEED THE BEACH FLAGS AND ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TO START OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
SHOULD PEAK IN STRENGTH ON MONDAY. A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO FUNNEL ONSHORE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES, CREATING A
FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND AL TODAY.
THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD MORE EVENLY ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH STRONG RIDGING SHOULD PREVENT MOST IF NOT ALL
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING DESPITE AMPLE MOISTURE. HOT
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO PEAK ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, AND
A FEW SPOTS OF UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND.
WHILE SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, THESE CONDITIONS COULD
STILL CAUSE HEAT RELATED ILLNESS IN SENSITIVE GROUPS.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TUESDAY INTO MID-WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED THEREAFTER. DAILY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE,
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THIS MORNING, WHICH IS WHY THE
VCSH IS IN THE TAF FOR KDHN. THERE'S ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE PROB30 FOR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH INFLUENCE FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST EACH DAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS, WEATHER OVER
THE MARINE AREA IS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 1-2 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TIME ZONE COUNTIES, THEN NORTH OF US 82 ON
MONDAY. THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY BOTH DAYS. BY TUESDAY, WE
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL VARY A GOOD BIT OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, STARTING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-10
MPH TODAY, THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE,
THEN BECOMING EASTERLY ON TUESDAY. DISPERSIONS EACH AFTERNOON WILL
BE GOOD. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
MOST LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK ARE AROUND A
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH, THOUGH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AN INCH
OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER STORMS. THIS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD FLOOD CONCERNS, BOTH IN TERMS OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING.
SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS AS THESE AREAS MISSED OUT ON THE
MOST BENEFICIAL RECENT RAINS AND RIVERS ARE STRUGGLING TO RECOVER.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT IMPACTS, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 91 73 95 74 / 10 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 88 73 92 75 / 10 10 0 0
DOTHAN 86 71 88 72 / 20 10 0 10
ALBANY 89 73 88 72 / 0 10 20 20
VALDOSTA 92 73 93 73 / 0 10 10 20
CROSS CITY 94 72 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 85 73 88 76 / 10 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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