965
FXUS62 KTAE 210611
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
111 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COAST THIS MORNING. THERE IS A MEDIUM (70
PERCENT) CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY FOR APALACHEE BAY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 INCLUDING MUCH OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
- MARINE AND BEACH HAZARDS INCLUDE A GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING, WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS EAST OF
APALACHICOLA, AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THE GULF BEACHES.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE
IS A MEDIUM (50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF TYING OR EXCEEDING DAILY
RECORD HIGHS TODAY AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST. THE CHANCE OF
MEETING THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA IS LOW (30 PERCENT)
MONDAY MORNING AND MEDIUM (50 PERCENT) TUESDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM (40 TO 70 PERCENT) CHANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GA AND FL BIG
BEND. IF THE PROBABILITY INCREASES FURTHER, RED FLAG HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO ARE
THE PRIMARY THREATS. DENSE FOG FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
IT REMAINS UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED FOR GULF BEACHES
TODAY AS THE WATER WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR ALL LEVELS OF SWIMMERS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND STICKS
AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY. THE CHANCE OF MEETING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA IS LOW (30 PERCENT) MONDAY MORNING AND MEDIUM (50 PERCENT)
TUESDAY MORNING AWAY FROM GULF COAST. A WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE
FROM MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING THURSDAY.
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED FOR GULF BEACHES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GA AND FL BIG BEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW, LEADING TO IFR CIGS DURING NIGHTTIME HOURS. IN
ADDITION, ECP WILL HAVE THE CONCERN OF SEA FOG UNTIL A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE. CIGS WILL LIFT AND PARTIALLY SCATTER OUT FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY EVENING.
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH DHN BEFORE THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD,
ACCOMPANIED BY A NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING AT
ALL TERMINALS DURING THE COURSE OF SATURDAY EVENING. THUNDER IS A
POSSIBILITY, BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR
INCLUSION OF VCTS AT ABY ON SATURDAY EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TODAY WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 4
FEET JUST OFFSHORE. AREAS OF SEA FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING PRIOR TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE DENSE,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS OF THE APALACHEE BAY. GALE
FORCE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO
THE WEST OF APALACHICOLA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF APALACHICOLA. SEAS OFFSHORE PEAK AROUND
7 TO 10 FEET ON SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT MAY BE SHORT-LIVED, WITH A MEDIUM
(40 TO 60 PERCENT) CHANCE OF ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS CENTERED
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH USHERS IN A DRY AIR MASS FROM
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHEN COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE VICINITY OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS TODAY WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO LOW DISPERSION NEAR THE GULF COAST. MEANWHILE, BORDERLINE
HIGH DISPERSION IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR SOUTHWEST GA.
THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ON SUNDAY FEATURES 20-FT WINDS AROUND
15 MPH, WHILE RH PLUNGES INTO THE MID-20S TO MID-30S DURING
THE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH DISPERSION. THERE IS
A MEDIUM (40 TO 70 PERCENT) CHANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GA AND FL BIG BEND. IF
THE PROBABILITY INCREASES FURTHER, RED FLAG HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED, EVEN IF TEMPERATURES ARE UNSEASONABLY COOL. ON MONDAY,
AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST, WITH RH AGAIN IN THE MID-20S TO MID-30S DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
DROUGHT CONTINUES AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
FOR LOCAL DROUGHT INFO & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITES:
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 82 59 62 33 / 40 70 10 0
PANAMA CITY 75 54 60 36 / 60 70 0 0
DOTHAN 81 48 56 31 / 80 80 0 0
ALBANY 82 51 57 30 / 70 80 10 0
VALDOSTA 83 61 63 31 / 40 70 10 0
CROSS CITY 81 65 69 33 / 10 70 20 0
APALACHICOLA 72 59 62 37 / 40 60 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ108-112.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ114.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ730-735-751-752-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ735.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ751-752-
770-772.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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