398
FXUS62 KTAE 281020
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
620 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 617 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM STORMS. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
HEAVY RAIN RECENTLY
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY.
BEACHGOERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES AND
DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF IF RED OR DOUBLE RED FLAGS ARE
FLYING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
THE PATTERN CHANGES A BIT TODAY, THOUGH WE'RE STILL LOOKING FOR MORE
WET WEATHER. ALOFT, WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF, A NARROW, WEAK RIDGE FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST. OUR FLOW TODAY TURNS
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH IS USUALLY MORE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE OF OUR AREA TO GET SHOWERS AND STORMS,
ESPECIALLY OUR EASTERN AREAS WHICH HAVE MISSED OUT ON MOST OF THE
RAIN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY WEAK PERTURBATIONS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY. PWATS WILL BE RATHER
IMPRESSIVE TODAY (AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES), SO THERE IS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FOR STORMS TO WORK WITH TODAY. TODAY'S STORMS MAY NOT
HAVE AS MUCH OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME STRONG GIVEN A VERY MOIST
PROFILE WITH HIGH FREEZING AND -20C LEVELS AND TALL, SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES, MORE INDICATIVE OF A TROPICAL "WARM RAIN" SETUP. STILL,
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN THE VERY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH REASONABLE HIGH-END TOTALS (10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF EXCEEDANCE) OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO MOSTLY THE MID 80S TODAY.
WE'LL SEE THE STORMS END AND EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG ALL BEACHES TODAY
GIVEN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HEED ALL POSTED BEACH FLAGS AND ADVICE FROM BEACH OFFICIALS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
FRIDAY'S SETUP BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLEX. THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST US DEPARTS INTO THE ATLANTIC, BUT NOT BEFORE TRYING TO
SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DOWN THE APPALACHIANS CLOSE TO OUR
NORTHERNMOST GEORGIA COUNTIES. MEANWHILE, THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH HIGH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES WILL RESULT IN
HIGH RAIN CHANCES AGAIN. WE'LL LIKELY SEE TWO AREAS OF RAIN ON
FRIDAY -- ONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE US 82 CORRIDOR
DRIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND ANOTHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. THESE MAY END UP CLASHING SOMEWHERE
OVER GEORGIA NEAR THE US 82 CORRIDOR, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
FOCUSED BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA, AND IT
WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE'LL BE WAITING ON THE TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHEAST US TO DIG AND FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO ROUND ITS BASE
BEFORE IT GETS SOUTH OF US (IF IT DOES). THE SOUPY AIR MASS REMAINS
IN PLACE, MEANING THE FRONT AND THE DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE AS WELL. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SLIPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK, MOSTLY FOR OUR NORTHERN
AREAS. THE FLORIDA COUNTIES COULD STILL BE DEALING WITH THE FRONT
NEARBY, ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES AND KEEPING THINGS HUMID.
THE PROLONGED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE RIP CURRENT
RISK ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL CURRENTLY. A FEW SHRA HAVE
DEVELOPED NEAR ECP, TLH, AND VLD THIS MORNING. MORE SHRA AND TSRA
WILL DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHRA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR OR PERHAPS IFR LATER IN THE NIGHT
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY BREEZES CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY EACH DAY, MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
A WET PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
EACH DAY. GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 MPH, INCREASING ON SATURDAY TO 15-20 MPH.
DISPERSIONS WILL GENERALLY BE FAIR TO GOOD TODAY AND FRIDAY, THOUGH
POCKETS OF LOW DISPERSIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. DISPERSIONS BECOME HIGH ON SATURDAY
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. GIVEN PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES EACH DAY, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS THIS
FORECAST CYCLE HAVE COME UP A BIT MORE GIVEN THE HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL NEAR THE FRONT AS IT SLOWS AND STALLS OVER THE FLORIDA
COUNTIES OR JUST OFFSHORE. WIDESPREAD TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS
WILL BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES WEST OF THE ACF BASIN TO 3-5 INCHES EAST
OF THE BASIN. THIS IS A FLIP OF WHERE THE RAIN HAS BEEN LATELY.
GIVEN AFTERNOON STORMS' PROPENSITY TO DROP HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME, SOME OF THESE TOTALS CAN BE REALIZED IN LOCALIZED
SPOTS WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. REASONABLE HIGH-END TOTALS COULD EXCEED
6 INCHES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN SPOTS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS,
PARTICULARLY IN URBAN, LOW-LYING, OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
ON THE RIVERS, THE LOWER CHOCTAWHATCHEE BASIN IS FORECAST TO GO INTO
ACTION STAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE FALLING. MEANWHILE, THE
OCHLOCKONEE BASIN MAY RISE INTO ACTION STAGE OVER THE COMING DAYS
SHOULD FORECAST RAINFALL COME TO FRUITION. CHANCES OF MINOR FLOODING
ON ALL OF OUR RIVERS STILL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO REPLENISHING BASEFLOWS ON OUR RIVER
SYSTEMS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 86 72 89 73 / 60 20 70 50
PANAMA CITY 85 74 86 75 / 50 10 40 60
DOTHAN 84 70 86 70 / 50 30 80 60
ALBANY 84 70 86 70 / 60 30 80 70
VALDOSTA 86 71 88 71 / 80 30 70 70
CROSS CITY 88 73 89 73 / 60 20 40 40
APALACHICOLA 84 75 85 76 / 40 10 30 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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