399
FXUS62 KTAE 280026
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
826 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
- HAZARDOUS HEAT TODAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-90S
TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FL PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
108-112F IN THE ADVISORY AND 102-107F ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION.
- THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IF THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS! BOATERS
SHOULD MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.
- THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FL PANHANDLE ON
TUESDAY WHERE THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF THE HEAT INDEX EXCEEDING
113F, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE EMERALD COAST. THOSE VULNERABLE TO
THE HEAT SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS, SUCH AS COOLING AND HYDRATION.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUTS, PROLIFIC LIGHTNING, AND NUISANCE FLOODING
BENEATH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
HEAT IS THE MAIN HEADLINE FOR THE SHORT TERM. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL BE THE MAJOR CONCERN WITH
VALUES ABOVE 108 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE REGION, AND A FEW AREAS
WITH VALUES ABOVE 113 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY AND AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FL
PANHANDLE TOMORROW. THESE WILL BE RE-ASSESSED TONIGHT AS TO WHERE
HEAT-RELATED HAZARDS WILL BE ISSUED FOR TUESDAY.
THERE WON'T BE MUCH OVERNIGHT RELIEF WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO NEARLY 80 DEGREES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE MORE SEASONAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID-70S.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, KEEPING ACTIVITY SOUTH OF I-10.
THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE A FEW GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH POPS RANGING FROM 50-70 PERCENT. THERE IS A
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10. POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE (QUARTER-
INCH) HAIL WILL BE THE CONCERNING IMPACTS. THERE IS ALSO A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS THESE STORMS CAN PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE NORTH,
AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WPC HAS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (DAY 4 AND 5), WHERE
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL (WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. POPS FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY RANGE FROM 30-70 PERCENT FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10,
AND 50-80 PERCENT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10. THIS IS A SPREAD OVER
SEVERAL DAYS.
BECAUSE OF THE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS, CLOUD COVER, AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, THIS WILL REDUCE OUR TEMPERATURES TO A MORE SEASONAL LOW
TO MID-90S FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM DHN TO
TLH AND ECP. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS TO THE
TAFS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MVFR VSBYS UNDERNEATH STRONGER
STORMS. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE GULF WATERS LATER
THIS EVENING. APART FROM THE CONVECTION, VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. COVERAGE OF STORMS TUESDAY WILL BE SPARSE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY
ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF.
WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AS A FRONT STALLS OUT, WITH STRONG BREEZES POSSIBLE.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WILL PREVAIL. BRIEFLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR STORMS TODAY.
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OVER THE REGION. HEAT INDICES ABOVE 108 DEGREES,
REACHING UP TO 115 DEGREES IN SOME PLACES WILL MAKE IT HAZARDOUS
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. DISPERSIONS WILL BE FAIR TO MODERATE FOR
TUESDAY, THEN INCREASING TO HIGH ON WEDNESDAY FOR OUR INLAND
DISTRICTS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WHICH
MAY BE LATER IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW AT THE
MOMENT. HOWEVER, SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS,
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
TUESDAY'S RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW BUT SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP
WITHIN THE COASTAL REGIONS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IN THE
AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A FRONT
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO STALL. THE WPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED THE REGION IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN URBAN AND LOW-
LYING AREAS. WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
IN SOME LOCATIONS. RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 77 98 79 97 / 50 10 0 70
PANAMA CITY 80 94 81 93 / 40 20 0 30
DOTHAN 75 98 78 97 / 50 10 0 50
ALBANY 75 99 78 98 / 20 0 0 50
VALDOSTA 75 99 78 98 / 30 0 0 70
CROSS CITY 77 95 80 94 / 40 20 10 40
APALACHICOLA 80 93 82 92 / 40 20 10 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
TUESDAY FOR FLZ007-009-011-016>019-027>029-034-118-127-128-
134.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7
PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR FLZ008-010-012>015-108-112-114-115-326-
426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR GAZ120>131-
142>148-155>161.
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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