881
FXUS62 KTAE 151832
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
232 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FL PANHANDLE, BIG
BEND, SE ALABAMA, AND PORTIONS OF SW GEORGIA EACH MORNING
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. FOG COULD BE DENSE FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. IF ENCOUNTERING FOG WHILE DRIVING, SLOW
DOWN, USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS, AND INCREASE BRAKING DISTANCE.
- LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN. FIRE CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. USE
EXTREME CAUTION WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING. PLEASE HEED BURN BANS
WHERE THEY ARE IN EFFECT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
WITH LOWER 90S LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM (60%) CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER OUR MARINE ZONES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
LIKELY ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA ALONG I-75.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HOWEVER, WE ARE
NOT IN RECORD TERRITORY. LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FOG, PROVIDED THAT THE WINDS GO CALM DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. THERE ARE NO RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, WILL HAVE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS WEEKEND. THE FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE FAR REMOVED FROM US,
KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY AS THE FRONT PASSES. THERE IS A LESS THAN
20% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT. THE MAIN STORY IS
BEHIND THE FRONT, THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY AND WINDS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO INCREASE. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S, THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE/INCREASE THE RISK FOR FIRE DANGER HEADING INTO THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE IN THE LOW 50S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING ALONG WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST. EARLY MORNING TOMORROW, PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL
BRING PREVAILING LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS TO ECP AND EXPANDING
EASTWARD TO POSSIBLY ENCROACHING TO TLH AND DHN TERMINALS. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT MID MORNING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTERWARDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
LIGHT TO GENTLE (GENERALLY) SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND 1-2 FOOT SEAS.
SEABREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND, SHIFTING THE WINDS
NORTHEASTERLY/NORTHERLY. BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS ABOUT A 60%
CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
MODERATE TO HIGH DISPERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW
AFTERNOONS. TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST CAN
BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON ABOVE 6500 FEET. DESPITE THE LIGHT
WINDS, ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY, SHIFTING
WINDS NORTHERLY AND INCREASING TRANSPORT WINDS TO 15-20 MPH.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOLLOWING THE FRONT FALLS TO CRITICAL
VALUES IN THE LOW 20S PERCENTAGE, INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OR WORSEN.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITES: WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 60 88 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 64 80 63 81 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 59 86 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 61 87 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 59 90 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 56 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 64 77 63 77 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ TO 10 AM EDT /9 AM
CDT/ THURSDAY FOR FLZ007>015-108-112-114-115-326-426.
GA...NONE.
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ065-068.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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