303
FXUS64 KBMX 131142
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
542 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 538 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
- COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL AL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 8
DEGREES NORTH TO 15 DEGREES SOUTH. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS
NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
OVERNIGHT.
PRESENTLY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE BROAD TROUGHING WAS POSITIONED OVER
MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION WHILE AN UPPER
LOW WAS LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A DEVELOPING
SWIFT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IN THE MID LEVELS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL PLAINS. FAIR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
EXCEPTION ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND LOW CLOUDS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT
WINDS WITH LOWS FROM AROUND FREEZING FAR NORTH TO THE MID 40S FAR
SOUTH.
SATURDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EAST TO
OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. AN INITIAL COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND STALL ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 60 FAR NORTHWEST TO NEAR 70 FAR SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST
WINDS FROM 4-8 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST TO OVER
LAKE ERIE BY SUNDAY MORNING. DEEP TROUGHING WILL EXTEND SOUTH OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WHILE BROAD AMPLIFIED
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND HELP FORCE A SHALLOW
ARCTIC FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD TROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST,
GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH MIDDAY ON SUNDAY,
FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DROP THROUGH THE DAY WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 8-16
MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 15-25 MPH AT TIMES, CREATING WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE 30S AREAWIDE WITH VALUES FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S ROUGHLY NEAR THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
FAR NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 278 WHILE HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40 ALONG INTERSTATE
20 TO THE MID 50S FAR SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT.
A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME WELL-ESTABLISHED ALOFT OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES AND MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. 1036 MB SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES WITH CONTINUED BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 7-14 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES BOTTOMING OUT EARLY MONDAY MORNING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
FAR NORTH TO THE MID TEENS FAR SOUTH. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 6 PM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY MORNING
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS FAR NORTH TO AROUND 20 FAR SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RESIDUAL LOW HEIGHTS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK, MAINTAINING DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN
THE 40S AREAWIDE, FOLLOWED BY LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, FOLLOWED BY
LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO THE LOW 30S SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NORTH TO THE LOW 60S FAR SOUTH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM MID TO LATE WEEK WHILE A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER LOW CLIPS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME. INCREASING CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY
BECOMING SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES LOOK TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S EAST TO THE MID 40S
WEST WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AREAWIDE. LOWS
FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH TO THE MID
40S SOUTH AS DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY WILL INCREASE FURTHER FROM THE
MID 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S FAR SOUTH. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOLLOWED BY DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
05
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY CAUSED SOME FOG TO
OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP AT SOME TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO
MVFR, WITH SOME IFR AT MGM/AUO. BHM WILL BE MORE ON THE EDGE AND
ONLY HAVE SCATTERED MENTION. THIS AFTERNOON, CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO
MVFR OCCASIONALLY SCATTERING OUT TO VFR AT TIMES. THIS EVENING
CIGS WILL LOWER BACK DOWN TO MVFR-IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN OVERNIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT
WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST SUNDAY WITH 20 FOOT WINDS 10-15 MPH ALONG WITH GUSTS UP
TO 15-20 MPH AND RHS IN THE 30-40% RANGE, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE 30S-40S. LOW RHS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY THOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 64 27 36 14 / 10 40 0 0
ANNISTON 66 31 38 14 / 10 60 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 64 30 36 17 / 10 60 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 65 32 39 16 / 10 60 0 0
CALERA 67 31 41 15 / 10 70 0 0
AUBURN 66 41 49 20 / 10 70 20 0
MONTGOMERY 68 41 50 20 / 10 70 10 0
TROY 69 44 54 21 / 10 60 20 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CST MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-
CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-
ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-
MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-
RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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