177
FXUS64 KBMX 031837
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1237 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2022
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2022
THE COLD FRONT IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF I-59/20, AND SURFACE WINDS
ARE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. A
DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS IS GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
I-85 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FADE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS FORCING WANES WHILE THE TROUGH PULLS FURTHER NORTH
THROUGH HUDSON BAY. DRY, COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, BUT
LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT STALLS EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S
WITH MID 50S SOUTHEAST NEAR THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MEANDER ALONG THE GULF COAST TOMORROW WITH COOLER AIR
RESIDING ACROSS OUR NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN LATE TOMORROW WITH HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
86/MARTIN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST SAT DEC 3 2022
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SPAN FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO THE BAHAMAS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY, CAUSING A STALLED FRONT TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY, PUSHING THE FRONT AND HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
NORTHWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 580S DM, NEAR-RECORD WARMTH APPEARS LIKELY IN THE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. BY FRIDAY, MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
HANDLING OF THE RIDGE AND PROSPECTS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE BACK
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.
87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2022
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS IS SITUATED ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF I-59/20.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE GULF COAST. MOIST SURFACE
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG AT TOI AND POTENTIALLY MGM FROM
~09-15Z. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AREA-WIDE BY
15-16Z.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT
TODAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 MPH THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN
ARRIVES ON MONDAY. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 37 58 42 56 / 0 10 20 80
ANNISTON 41 61 46 57 / 0 10 20 70
BIRMINGHAM 41 59 46 59 / 0 10 20 70
TUSCALOOSA 40 59 46 63 / 0 10 20 50
CALERA 44 61 48 61 / 10 10 20 50
AUBURN 50 65 50 62 / 20 10 10 20
MONTGOMERY 51 66 49 69 / 20 10 10 20
TROY 55 69 51 69 / 30 10 10 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...86/MARTIN
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
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