405
FXUS64 KBMX 191114
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
614 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
- CRITICALLY DRY FUELS, STRONG WINDS, AND LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ELEVATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON SUNDAY,
WITH LOWS ON MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
NORTHEAST MAY BE IN THE UPPER 30S.
- NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
A STRONG COLD HAS MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHWEST WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NOW NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. POST-FRONTAL RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO THE STATE, BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY
3 TO 4 AM. BEST CHANCES AFTER SUNRISE WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH AROUND 9 AM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH TO GUSTS NEAR 25
MPH AT TIME THROUGH THE DAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SETS UP SHOP
OVER THE DROUGHT STRICKEN SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL WARM BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ON MONDAY, WITH THE RETURN TO MID 80S BY
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR INTO
SATURDAY, SO LOTS OF TIME TO DISCUSS IT AND FINE TUNE THE IMPACTS
TO THE AREA AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK.
16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO BHM/EET/TCL AS A LINE OF SHOWERS
HAVE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH AUO/MGM. THEREFORE, MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR THOSE 2
SITES. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE COMMON TODAY ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS LIKELY. WINDS RELAX AFTER
00Z, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
NOTE: SPRING SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF KASN TAF ARE NOW BEING ISSUED
AND WILL RUN THROUGH 04/29 18Z.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
FUELS REMAINING CRITICALLY DRY. RAIN CHANCES END BY LATE MORNING
IN THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ON SUNDAY WITH RH LEVELS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. WHILE THE
RAIN WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING, FORECAST FUEL LEVELS
FOR SUNDAY ARE TO BE IN THE LOW RANGE FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE
CONCERN, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS, BUT WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS, BURNING WILL STILL BE HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. WINDS
DECREASE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH RH LEVELS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S. SIGNIFICANT FIRE LEVELS INCREASE BACK TO MODERATE ON MONDAY
SO THE WINDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 68 39 76 43 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 68 41 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 69 46 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 71 44 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 69 44 79 48 / 10 0 0 0
AUBURN 68 46 77 50 / 20 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 70 44 79 48 / 20 0 0 0
TROY 69 46 78 47 / 30 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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