502
FXUS64 KBMX 181045
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
445 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
TODAY:
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING, WITH A
POTENTIALLY MORE CONCENTRATED BATCH OF ACTIVITY JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST, CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX.
ASCENT FROM AN APPROACHING DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S., AND
ITS FRONT, WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SPELLS OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SMALL SWATH OF
WEAK MUCAPE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A VEERED/SHEARED WIND PROFILE, THOUGH CHARACTERISTICS
OF THE INSTABILITY PROFILE ARE MEAGER, ESPECIALLY AT THE LOW LEVELS,
ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT MISALIGNED DYNAMICS; THUS, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
FRIDAY & THE WEEKEND:
FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, INITIALLY COOLER ON
FRIDAY BUT TRENDING MILDER ON SATURDAY.
A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SCOOTING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION
SHOULD CAUSE A PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK:
BROAD RIDGING FROM MEXICO TO THE GULF IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY WITH
ITS AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN OF POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES WILL CAUSE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
CONUS. FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA, PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S AND MEDIUM FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S HEADING
INTO CHRISTMAS, PERHAPS PAST IT BY A FEW DAYS, TOO.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ALABAMA AS OF 10:45Z AND WILL COME
IN WAVES THROUGH TODAY, ENDING LATE THIS EVENING. HEAVY SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
ACTIVITY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
VFR OVERCAST EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR AROUND
15Z AND IFR AROUND 18Z FOR ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS. A FEW
HOURS OF LIFR MAY OCCUR SOMETIME FROM MID AFTERNOON TO MID
EVENING FOR SOME LOCATIONS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND THEN VFR IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT/PAST 06Z FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
MINRHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE, AND WINDS BELOW, CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS OVER THE COMING DAYS. OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE LOWEST
AFTERNOON RHS SHOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY/THURSDAY WITH
PERIODIC SLIGHT-CHANCE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION NEXT
WEEK, OTHERWISE FAIR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 61 34 50 27 / 90 80 0 0
ANNISTON 62 37 52 29 / 90 80 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 62 37 50 33 / 90 80 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 64 37 53 31 / 90 80 0 0
CALERA 64 36 54 31 / 90 80 0 0
AUBURN 61 43 55 34 / 90 70 0 0
MONTGOMERY 64 42 56 32 / 90 60 0 0
TROY 64 44 56 33 / 100 60 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...89
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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