590
FXUS64 KBMX 251801
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
101 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED.
- LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A
MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, AS AN
ACTIVE PATTERN STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
THROUGH TUESDAY, DIFFERENT PORTIONS OF THE REGION ARE HIGHLIGHTED
IN VARIOUS OUTLOOKS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WE'RE CLIPPED BY MARGINAL RISKS (LEVEL 1 OF 5), WITH
TUESDAY SEEING US IN A MUCH MORE BROAD SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF
5).
THESE MARGINAL RISKS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY REALLY AREN'T MUCH TO
WRITE HOME ABOUT. SUNDAY IS A "GLANCING BLOW" TYPE OF SITUATION,
WHERE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OUR WEST, AND MAY CLIP
OUR FAR SW (SUMTER AND MARENGO) COUNTIES. THIS IS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL, AND THE GENERAL EXPECTATION HERE IS "LOW CONFIDENCE
IN ANY STORMS, LET ALONE SEVERE STORMS." THE SAME THING CAN BE
SAID FOR OUR FAR NW COUNTIES ON MONDAY NIGHT. HERE, WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST,
WITH AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NE,
THIS COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL IN ITS PROGRESSION. THE
MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT WOULD BE A SMALL
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO DEVIATE EAST, MOVING SOMEWHERE THROUGH
CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THE FAILURE MODES HERE FAR EXCEED THE
SUCCESSFUL ONES, AS WE'LL BE DEALING WITH A STOUT CAPPING
INVERSION, ON TOP OF THE LIMITED FORCING. IN TURN, EVEN FOR THE
AREAS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE MARGINAL RISK, THE EXPECTATION IS ALSO
"LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE WEATHER."
AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW, TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS THE MOST IMPRESSIVE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, BUT THAT IS ALSO IN COMPARISON TO
THE LAST TWO DAYS OF MEAGER CONDITIONS. TO OUR WEST IN THE
ARKLATEX REGION, A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE STALLED COLD FRONT, EVENTUALLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO AN MCS.
THE MCS WILL FOLLOW AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY TO THE EAST,
EVENTUALLY WORKING INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK HERE IS THAT
INSTABILITY AXIS, AS MORNING GUIDANCE QUICKLY HAS IT DECREASING
ONCE THE SUN SETS. IN THE EVENT THE HIGHER INSTABILITY REMAINS, A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THIS MCS COULD ABSOLUTELY MATERIALIZE.
IF THE INSTABILITY DECREASES OVERNIGHT, THEN SEVERE STORMS WOULD
BE LESS LIKELY.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, BEFORE ANOTHER ORGANIZED
SYSTEM STARTS TO WORK INTO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CHANCE AT MORE ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES, AS WELL
AS DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
THESE LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
MORNING, AS THIS SYSTEM KEEPS MOVING EAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN
ITS SCATTERED NATURE, CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
PROB30 GROUPS. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS, REDUCED
VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PAST 26/06Z, WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY.
AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR TCL DUE TO INTERMITTENT
OBSERVATIONS.
NOTE: SPRING SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE TAF FOR KASN IS NOW BEING
ISSUED AND WILL RUN THROUGH 04/29 18Z.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH MINRH
VALUES ABOVE 50 PERCENT AREAWIDE. LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH RH VALUES MAINLY IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT
RANGE. SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHER MINRH VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 55 83 56 83 / 30 10 10 20
ANNISTON 58 83 59 83 / 40 10 10 20
BIRMINGHAM 62 83 62 85 / 30 20 20 20
TUSCALOOSA 61 85 62 88 / 20 30 20 20
CALERA 60 85 61 88 / 30 20 20 20
AUBURN 62 84 64 83 / 40 10 10 20
MONTGOMERY 62 85 61 87 / 40 20 10 20
TROY 62 85 61 86 / 40 20 10 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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