915  
FXUS64 KBMX 050955  
AFDBMX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL  
355 AM CST TUE MAR 5 2024  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST TUE MAR 5 2024  
 
TAKING A LOOK OUT THE WINDOW EARLY THIS MORNING, WE'VE HAD FAIRLY  
WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS  
BETWEEN 9PM AND MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY HAS ACTUALLY TAPERED OFF AS  
WE APPROACH 4AM WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE CURRENTLY OBSERVED  
ON RADAR. MEANWHILE, A VAST CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS  
DEVELOPED JUST OFF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY  
CUTTING US OFF AT THE MOMENT FROM THE DEEPEST MOISTURE.  
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS RIDING UNDERNEATH  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATING  
THROUGH THE ARKLATEX EARLY THIS MORNING. AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE  
ACTIVITY PRODUCES LIFT ALOFT, A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE  
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED STORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY  
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATES ACROSS THE  
DEEP SOUTH AND SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE I-59  
CORRIDOR. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS  
SURFACE FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY. WE CERTAINLY WON'T SEE ANY  
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS, AS THE BEST LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL  
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN  
AN INCH TO JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE  
EASTERN-MOST COUNTIES. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY  
POSSIBLE, BUT NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES  
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY STEADY DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD  
CLOUDS AND RAIN, RISING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S INTO THE MID 60S  
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.  
 
I'VE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS LINGERING A BIT LONGER THIS EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. 00Z HIGH-  
RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE WRAP-AROUND SHOWER  
ACTIVITY IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS GADSDEN AND ANNISTON THROUGH 6AM  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END ELSEWHERE WITH  
CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S. WE WON'T SEE  
MUCH OF AN AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH ONLY WEAK  
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WESTERLY FLOW AT 500MB. AS 700MB FLOW  
BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD FINALLY  
BEGIN TO MIX OUT A GOOD BIT OF THE CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD ALLOW  
HIGH TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 70S BY 4PM. MID TO UPPER 70S WILL  
BE LIKELY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.  
 
56/GDG  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST TUE MAR 5 2024  
 
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
THURSDAY NIGHT. NARROW SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE  
NORTH, RESULTING IN CALM WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL  
COOLING WILL BE PRESENT OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS, SO WENT A  
LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN NBM ESPECIALLY IN THE COOLER VALLEYS.  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP NICELY ON THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS,  
THOUGH A SHORTWAVE AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLIP THE NORTHWEST  
COUNTIES. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT CHANCES OF MEASURABLE  
PRECIP IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER THURSDAY  
NIGHT BUT WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SOME  
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE.  
 
A COMPLEX TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST  
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL  
EJECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING, MOVING  
EASTWARD TO NEAR MEMPHIS BY SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN  
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND  
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES A WEAK SHORTWAVE  
THAT EJECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EARLIER ALONG WITH A  
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM ILLINOIS TO MICHIGAN.  
ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING, POTENTIALLY DEEPENING  
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE  
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A LLJ AHEAD OF THE TWO LOWS WILL  
MOVE INTO ALABAMA ON FRIDAY, WITH A POTENTIAL MCS/REMNANT MCS MOVING  
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY WEAK INSTABILITY LOOKS TO  
BE ELEVATED RATHER THAN SURFACE-BASED DURING THIS TIME WITH THE  
HIGHER DEW POINTS REMAINING TO OUR SOUTHWEST DUE TO LINGERING HIGH  
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS HAS SHIFTED  
SOUTHWARD, BUT STILL WILL BE IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE RESULTING  
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.  
 
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EJECTS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH LATE  
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THE LOW ATTEMPTS TO  
DEEPEN, THERE MAY BE A SECONDARY LLJ SURGE. WITH THIS THE WARM  
FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT  
IN A WINDOW FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN  
COUNTIES, THOUGH GIVEN THE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FALLING NORTH OF THE  
WARM FRONT IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME SURFACE-  
BASED AND THE HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THIS RUN.  
SOME HIGHER DEW POINTS AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DO FINALLY TRY  
TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY, THOUGH THIS IS MAINLY IN  
THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT BEHIND THE ACTUAL CONVECTION AND FLOW WILL BE  
QUITE VEERED BY THIS TIME. WHILE A COUPLE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT IT WOULD BE UNUSUAL TO GET A SEVERE THREAT  
IN A DRY SLOT IN CENTRAL ALABAMA ESPECIALLY THIS EARLY IN THE  
SPRING.  
 
ALL IN ALL, SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW BUT NON-ZERO IN  
THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA, TOO MARGINAL TO  
INCLUDE IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN  
THREAT WITH AN EXPECTED BAND OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 5 INCH  
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WHERE  
EXACTLY THIS HEAVY RAIN FALLS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH FLOODING  
OCCURS ON AREA RIVERS.  
 
DRIER AND COOLER (THOUGH ACTUALLY NOT THAT FAR BELOW AVERAGE)  
WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE  
IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WITH  
LIGHT WINDS.  
 
32/DAVIS  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST MON MAR 4 2024  
 
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD  
OVERNIGHT, WITH CIGS FALLING TO MVFR BY SUNRISE AT ALL FORECAST  
SITES. PERIODS OF RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY  
TUESDAY, WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS, WITH HEIGHTS REMAINING  
IN THE MVFR RANGE. AT TIMES, CIG HEIGHTS COULD DROP TO IFR. WINDS  
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 6-10KTS.  
 
14  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH  
THE DAY TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RH  
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH RH  
VALUES IN THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE, BEFORE MORE RAIN ARRIVES  
FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
GADSDEN 65 54 73 47 / 100 90 20 0  
ANNISTON 65 55 73 49 / 100 90 20 0  
BIRMINGHAM 66 56 73 51 / 90 80 10 0  
TUSCALOOSA 69 56 75 51 / 80 60 10 0  
CALERA 66 56 73 51 / 90 80 10 0  
AUBURN 65 58 73 53 / 100 90 20 0  
MONTGOMERY 69 59 75 52 / 90 80 10 0  
TROY 69 60 77 53 / 90 80 10 0  
 

 
   
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...56/GDG  
LONG TERM....32/DAVIS  
AVIATION...14  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab AL Page Main Text Page