708
FXUS64 KBMX 071838
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1238 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 TO 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM AROUND 3 PM TO 12 MIDNIGHT. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 TO 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
LOOKING AT THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING, THERE IS A CAP IN PLACE
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. HOWEVER THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS ONLY
78 TO 80 DEGREES, SO MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BREAK THE CAP BY 3
TO 4 PM JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS. CURRENTLY THIS LINE OF
STORMS IS ACROSS NORTHERN MS, WITH THE OUTFLOW SLOWLY SLIDING
SOUTH AND EAST. START TIME IN NORTHWEST MARION SHOULD STILL BE
AROUND 3 PM. MAYBE 230 PM TO BE MORE SPECIFIC. OVERALL THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE LINE ITSELF
ALONG WITH POCKETS OF SEVERE HAIL IN THE WEST. WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CELLS SLIDING NORTH INTO THE MAIN LINE FOR
ROTATION AS THE MERGING COMMENCES. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
ALREADY OCCURRING IN WESTERN MS, WITH CELLS THAT MAY IMPACT US
DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEASTERN LA. WE SHOULD SEE THIS LINE DISSIPATE
IN INTENSITY AND OVERALL COVERAGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT, WITH THE PEAK
INTENSITY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM.
QUESTIONS IN THE FORECAST BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME OF THE CAMS ARE TAKING THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY TO
THE COAST, WHILE MORE GLOBAL SCENARIOS KEEP THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN
I-10 AND I-20 IN SOUTHERN MS. IF THE BOUNDARY DOES CONTINUE TO THE
COAST, THEN THIS COULD POTENTIALLY WIND UP CUTTING OUR AREA OFF
FROM THE MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY, THUS MUCH LESS
COVERAGE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF THE BOUNDARY FOLLOWS MORE
OF THE GLOBAL SCENARIO AND FLATTENS OUT BEFORE THE COAST, THEN
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SOUTHERLY INFLOW THAT WOULD AT LEAST KEEP
HIGH CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF ON SUNDAY. SO FOR THIS UPDATE
TRIMMED BACK ON GUIDANCE SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. WILL
OBVIOUSLY NEED TO MONITOR THE TRENDS OF RADAR TO SEE IF THESE NEED
TO BE LOWERED ANY MORE.
THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES ON MONDAY AS THE OVERALL COLD FRONT
STALLS OUT, KEEPING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE LEFTOVER FRONT TRIES TO LIFT BACK NORTH, AS AN EFFECTIVE
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. OVERALL TIMING OF THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE
THE SAME TIME FRAME AS THIS EVENT. AS DISCUSSED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THERE IS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ARE NOW HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FORECAST. THIS
SYSTEM IS A LITTLE BIT MORE POTENT THAT THE CURRENT ONE AS THE
TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSER TO US ON THE
BACKSIDE. THE GOOD NEWS TO THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS NEVER REALLY PHASE UP, BEFORE THE NORTHERN STREAM
KICKS THE SOUTHERN STREAM OUT.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
MOST SITES ARE NOW VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
HOLDING OFF A FEW MORE HOURS. ADDED IN TEMPO WORDING TO TRY TO
TIME OUT THE TIMING OF THE LINE, BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE I LEFT
IN PROB30S FOR STORMS THROUGH 9Z IN THE NORTH. OTHERWISE LOW
CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
12 TO 15Z. WE COULD SEE STORMS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAIL END
OF THE FORECAST AGAIN, WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH.
16
FIRE WEATHER
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LEADING TO INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES WITH SOME STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AL. HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING, THEN AGAIN
ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE A
BREAK IN THE RAIN/STORMS ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 59 73 57 78 / 90 60 20 40
ANNISTON 61 74 59 78 / 90 60 20 50
BIRMINGHAM 63 74 60 77 / 90 70 20 50
TUSCALOOSA 62 76 60 78 / 90 70 20 60
CALERA 62 76 60 79 / 90 70 20 60
AUBURN 63 73 61 78 / 60 70 30 40
MONTGOMERY 64 74 62 80 / 60 70 30 50
TROY 63 74 62 81 / 50 70 30 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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