985
FXUS64 KBMX 232315
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
615 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- HEAT & HUMIDITY: A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BEGINS LATE THIS
WEEK; HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 95-100
DEGREES DAILY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORM THREAT: A COMPLEX OF STORMS OR A DECAYING MCS MAY
REACH SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
CURRENT SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED TO
OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH, AND HUMIDITY IS SLIGHTLY LOWER TODAY
THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY. BROAD RIDGING OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST REGIONS WILL INFLUENCE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPARK CONVECTION FROM
OKLAHOMA THROUGH ARKANSAS TONIGHT. THIS FORCING WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD BY TOMORROW AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW MORNING. POPS WERE
RAISED GIVEN THE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE ARRIVAL OF A DECAYING
MCS OR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS,
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. THEREAFTER, THE
FORECAST TRENDS DRIER AND WARMER AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD WESTWARD WHERE IT WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST
BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND WITH HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS NEARLY EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WE OPTED TO INTRODUCE
A PROB30 FOR TSRA ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES FROM 20Z-00Z
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AS THE LATEST CAMS
STRUGGLE WITH HOW MUCH OF A MCS TO OUR WEST MAKES IT OUT OF
MISSISSIPPI.
NOTE: METARS FROM AUO ARE AVAILABLE BUT MISSING DATA; THEREFORE,
AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AS WE WILL REMAIN IN A WET PATTERN
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP MINRH
VALUES ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 60 85 66 88 / 0 10 20 20
ANNISTON 61 85 67 88 / 0 0 20 20
BIRMINGHAM 63 86 69 88 / 0 20 30 30
TUSCALOOSA 65 86 70 89 / 0 50 50 40
CALERA 63 89 68 90 / 0 30 40 30
AUBURN 65 87 69 87 / 0 0 20 20
MONTGOMERY 65 87 69 88 / 0 30 40 30
TROY 64 88 68 88 / 0 10 40 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86/MARTIN
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page