059
FXUS64 KBMX 131123
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
623 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THE CLOSED LOW STILL FINDS ITSELF IN CENTRAL TENNESSEE, WITH IT
STILL SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE SE. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THE LOW
SHOULD HAVE MEANDERED INTO NORTH GEORGIA, WHERE IT WILL CONTINUE
TO SIT FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS OR SO. AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT, THIS LOW IS STILL PROJECTED TO START SHIFTING TO THE WEST,
WORKING RIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA, AS A RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD
IN OVER THE EAST COAST. IN TURN, ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS CLOSED LOW. BY THURSDAY HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES
WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT
WE'RE SO USED TO SEEING THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, GUIDANCE STARTS TO SPLIT REGARDING
THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS RIDGE. A FEW LONG RANGE MEMBERS HAVE THE
RIDGE ESTABLISHING ITSELF, ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO CLIMB
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID-90S. OTHER MEMBERS KEEP THE SCOPE OF
THIS RIDGE SUPPRESSED, AS ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER, REMAINING IN THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S.
UNFORTUNATELY, THESE SCENARIOS ESSENTIALLY BOIL DOWN TO "HOT" AND
"STILL HOT, JUST NOT AS MUCH." FOR US HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE MORNING AND MOVE THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED ONLY A VCSH AT KMGM AND KAUO
THROUGH THE MORNING DUE TO PROXIMITY OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, LEFT
A PROB30 IN EACH TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP AND WHEN ANY IMPACTS
WOULD OCCUR AT EACH TAF SITE. MODELS ARE HOLDING ON TO AN AMPLE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR AT MOST
SITES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
24
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AS THE MOIST AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST, AS A WEAK SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE REGION. GIVEN THE
ELEVATED MINRH AND RAINFALL CHANCES, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN
LITTLE TO NONE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 85 69 84 69 / 80 60 90 30
ANNISTON 84 70 83 70 / 80 60 90 40
BIRMINGHAM 86 70 84 70 / 70 60 90 40
TUSCALOOSA 86 71 84 71 / 70 60 90 40
CALERA 87 70 85 70 / 80 60 90 40
AUBURN 84 71 83 71 / 60 60 90 60
MONTGOMERY 86 70 85 70 / 70 60 90 40
TROY 84 69 85 69 / 70 50 80 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...24
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