092
FXUS64 KBMX 261816
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1216 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
- THERE ARE MEDIUM CHANCES (30-60%) FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
RUNNING 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, AND LOWS RUNNING 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
- A FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY, SWINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TO START
NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGH.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
OVERALL, NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REASONING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
SLOW CLEARING ON SATURDAY MORNING. NOT AS CONFIDENT ON THE FOG
SCENARIO SO WILL AWAIT ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE ON THE NEED FOR AN
ADVISORY. THERE WILL BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE AT SEEING A BRIEF RAIN
SHOWER IN THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND GENERALLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT AND VERY LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
CHANGES FROM GUIDANCE INCLUDES RAISING LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER IN THE TIME PERIOD COVERED BY SUNDAY NIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON MONDAY FROM GUIDANCE WITH SOME
OF THE HIGHS ACTUALLY OCCURRING BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE SOUTH. IT
WILL FOR SURE NOT BE A TYPICAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY.
16
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
CALM, COOL, AND FOGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE VISIBILITY HAS ALREADY BOTTOMED OUT. A
LIGHT BREEZE MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH FOG WE SEE ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES, BUT LEFT THEM IN THE ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE
FOG. WE LIKELY WON'T SEE MUCH SUN TODAY DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE
WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GENERAL CLOUDINESS, BUT SOME SUN MAY BREAK
THROUGH THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S,
TRENDING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY WITH A SHARP
DROP IN TEMPERATURE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE ON THE
LOWER END, LIKELY DUE TO AN OVERALL LACK OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
THE SYSTEM, WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25" EXPECTED. THERE
WILL ALSO BE LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY AND WEAK DYNAMICS, SO SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT, AND COLD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY THURSDAY, BUT STILL BELOW
AVERAGE.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE A SPLIT OF IFR/MVFR ACROSS
THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE 19 TO 20 TO JUST
MVFR/VFR ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
CIGS AROUND 300 TO 500 FEET BY 9 TO 10Z. SLOW CLEARING ON SATURDAY
MORNING WITH MOST AREAS FINALLY GETTING TO MVFR BY 16 TO 17Z.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT) OF A RAIN SHOWER
IMPACTING BHM THIS EVENING AFTER 00Z, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON THE
IMPACTS TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
16
FIRE WEATHER
AN OVERALL RAIN-FREE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH PERSISTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, MINRH WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY 20FT WINDS AROUND 5 TO 8 KTS. THERE IS A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER IN THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, BEFORE
MIDNIGHT, BUT VERY LITTLE, IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY IN
ADDITION TO MUCH LOWER RHS THEREAFTER.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 26:
KBHM: 76/2021
KEET: 75/2016
KANB: 78/2015
KTCL: 75/2021
KMGM: 82/2015
DECEMBER 27:
KBHM: 77/2015
KEET: 77/2015
KANB: 76/2015
KTCL: 79/2015
KMGM: 80/2016
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 58 75 58 75 / 20 10 10 10
ANNISTON 58 75 58 75 / 20 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 60 75 60 75 / 20 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 60 75 58 76 / 10 10 10 0
CALERA 59 76 58 76 / 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 61 74 60 74 / 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 61 77 60 77 / 10 10 10 10
TROY 59 76 58 76 / 0 10 10 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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