627
FXUS64 KBMX 241710
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1210 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
- THERE IS A RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 59 AND
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDORS FROM BIRMINGHAM TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM TODAY.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
EACH DAY THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL RISKS FOR FLASH FLOODING OR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION. HIGH VERTICAL MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG WITH LIFT FROM
PASSING IMPULSES WITHIN THE TROUGH, AND WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE INSTABILITY, WILL CAUSE MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
FORTHCOMING HIGH RAINFALL RATES, ON TOP OF ALREADY ACCUMULATED
RAINFALL, WILL POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING OVER THE
COMING DAYS. TODAY'S THREAT SEEMS MOST FOCUSED FROM NEAR
BIRMINGHAM TO POINTS NORTHEAST AND EAST. THIS IS DUE TO A COMPACT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY,
PROVIDING A FOCUS AND ENHANCEMENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH IS
MODELED TO FILL IN AS IT BEGINS TO IMPACT URBAN AND TERRAIN AREAS
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AXIS. WHILE A RELATIVE LULL IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT (ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE ISOLATED), ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY; THIS MAY REQUIRE
EITHER AN EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH OR THE ISSUANCE OF
A NEW ONE, ESPECIALLY IF A FAVORED CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN
BE PINPOINTED AMONGST THE SCATTERING OF ACTIVITY.
DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS ON THE WEAK SIDE THROUGH THE WEEK, THOUGH ANY
PERIODIC ENHANCEMENT TIMED WITH PEAK INSTABILITY AND/OR OUTFLOW
COULD POSE A LOW RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. FOR
TODAY, A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS HIGHLIGHTED FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65, THOUGH THIS THREAT IS BEING HAMPERED BY WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24-HOURS DUE TO
A NEARBY TROUGH AND MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS. MVFR-IFR CATEGORIES
PREVAIL TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY BECOMES ISOLATED TONIGHT, THOUGH CEILINGS
BECOME AN IFR-LIFR MIX WITH MVFR PATCHY FOG. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY, INVOLVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
MVFR-IFR CATEGORIES.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK. AS A RESULT, THERE
ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 64 79 64 80 / 50 70 70 90
ANNISTON 65 78 65 80 / 50 90 70 90
BIRMINGHAM 66 80 66 80 / 50 70 70 90
TUSCALOOSA 67 81 67 81 / 40 60 70 90
CALERA 66 80 66 81 / 40 80 70 90
AUBURN 67 78 67 80 / 70 90 60 90
MONTGOMERY 67 79 67 80 / 50 90 50 100
TROY 67 79 67 81 / 70 90 40 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-JEFFERSON-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA.
DISCUSSION...89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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