532
FXUS64 KBMX 010042
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
742 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2023
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 722 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2023
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS HAS A LARGE MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES NEAR TROY AND EUFAULA. PREVIOUS CONVECTION
HAS ALLOWED A NICE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP AND WAS NEAR
MONTGOMERY TO PHENIX CITY. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SOME GOOD
OMEGA NEAR THIS GRADIENT AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST TO WEST. THESE
FEATURES WERE ON THE FAR NORTH SIDE OF LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WAS SHOWERS AS THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
HAS WANED OVER THE PAST HOUR. EXPECT THE OVERALL COVERAGE TO
EVENTUALLY LESSEN IN THE SOUTH, BUT DID HAVE TO INCREASE POPS FOR
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SOUTH. MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS HIGH
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WILL MONITOR IF THESE SHOWERS DO
INDEED ALL GO AWAY.
75
PREVIOUS SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION:
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2023
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS WHICH IS RESULTING IN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. TO OUR SOUTH, A MID-LEVEL LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A REX BLOCK PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH IS RESULTING IN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
ALONG GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHICH WILL SUPPORT ROUTINE AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA, ESPECIALLY AS 500MB WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE REX BLOCK. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF
RAIN AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR, AND REALLY THE OVERALL
MOISTURE PROFILE IS STILL OF LOW QUALITY. THERE WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, BUT CLOUD COVER MAY INCREASE AT TIMES DUE TO
THE TROUGH CIRCULATING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. NONETHELESS, EXPECT
WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND MILD
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
86/MARTIN
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2023
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WE HAVE SLID
INTO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL PATTERN WITH ISOLATED HEAT
INDUCED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERY DAY
IN THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TROPICAL
FEATURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO, THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AS IT DRIFTS IN THAT DIRECTION.
08
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2023
RAIN CHANCES FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOK TO BE LARGELY DEPENDENT
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WHILE THE SYSTEM SHOULD ULTIMATELY MOVE TO THE
EAST, THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OUTER BANDS THAT TRY TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN AREAS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE COAST, HOWEVER. OTHERWISE, NEARLY EVERY
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION
OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS
RETROGRADES THE FEATURE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, OVER THE OHIO VALLEY,
BY TUESDAY, WHILE OTHER MODELS TAKE IT OUT TO SEA FROM NEW ENGLAND.
AS SUCH, THE GFS HAS CONSIDERABLY COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPS ON TUESDAY
VS. THE ECMWF. MODEL BLENDS CAPTURE THIS NICELY, AND THE FORECAST
SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE HERE FOR THE UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY. THESE TEMPS
ARE CHARACTERISTIC OF THE ENTIRE PERIOD, WHICH WILL SEE HIGHS EACH
DAY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO OCCASIONALLY LOW 90S.
12
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 722 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2023
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP AND
EASTERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER
SOUTHERN ALABAMA. HAVE SOME MENTION OF CONVECTION IN FOR MGM/TOI A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OUT/DISSIPATING. A BRIEF WIND
GUST IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BRIEF VIS REDUCTION, BUT MOST CEILINGS
WILL STAY VFR. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL SEE VFR
CEILINGS SLOWLY DECREASING. ALTHOUGH MODEL OUTPUT IS NOT
INDICATING IT TOO MUCH, BELIEVE SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL SHOW UP
AROUND SUNRISE. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS IN RESTRICTIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME DRIER
AIR ENTERING THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE, ALL AREAS WILL
NOT EXPERIENCE CONVECTION. BUT THE EXACT LOCATION WILL PLAY A ROLE
IN WHERE POPS ARE HIGHEST. AT THIS TIME, HAVE PROB30 MENTION
SOUTH AND WEST. WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY 5-10KTS.
75
FIRE WEATHER
TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY PERCENTAGES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE A LITTLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, BUT
WE SHOULD NOT REACH CRITICAL VALUES. 20FT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 12 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 62 84 62 88 / 10 20 20 20
ANNISTON 64 84 64 87 / 10 20 20 20
BIRMINGHAM 65 87 66 89 / 20 30 20 20
TUSCALOOSA 65 87 66 89 / 20 30 20 20
CALERA 65 85 66 88 / 20 20 20 20
AUBURN 65 83 65 85 / 20 20 20 20
MONTGOMERY 66 86 66 88 / 50 20 20 20
TROY 65 85 66 88 / 50 30 20 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...75
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