230
FXUS64 KBMX 020617
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1217 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- VERY HIGH CHANCES (80-100%) FOR RAIN TODAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
A 20-30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THREAT FOR A SEVERE STORM
REMAINS VERY LOW.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, LIFTING A
WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA BEFORE EXPANDING TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF CENTRAL
AL BY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE'S A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE
(20-30%)OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL AT BEST.
A DEEPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AL THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
FINALLY PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING IN SOME
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON LEADING TO A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
(MAINLY WIND AND HAIL CONCERN), BUT THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST.
BROAD RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND A RETURN OF WARMER CONDITIONS. THE UPPER
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. OUR
NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO COME THROUGH TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK,
LEADING TO INCREASED PROBABILITY FOR RAINFALL BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD EXISTS IN THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THAT
SYSTEM, SO RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE (30%) AT THIS
POINT.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 21Z AND THEN
INCLUDING THE MGM AND AUO BY 00Z. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S FOR TSRA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES AFTER 00Z AS WELL, BUT THAT MIGHT BE
GENEROUS ON THE PROBABILITIES. GENERALLY EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MVFR CONDITIONS, THOUGH WE'LL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR IFR CIGS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. MIN RHS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 62 46 61 35 / 60 90 40 0
ANNISTON 62 51 62 37 / 60 90 60 0
BIRMINGHAM 62 53 61 38 / 70 90 40 0
TUSCALOOSA 63 53 63 38 / 70 90 30 0
CALERA 63 53 64 38 / 60 90 50 0
AUBURN 62 55 67 43 / 30 80 80 10
MONTGOMERY 67 58 70 43 / 30 80 80 0
TROY 67 56 71 43 / 20 70 90 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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