936
FXUS64 KBMX 241850
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1233 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
- A LEVEL 2/5 SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. FREEZING RAIN AND ICY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED ACROSS THE HUN CWA AS TEMPS ARE WELL BELOW FREEZING. AS OF
WRITING, TEMPS ACROSS OUR NW COUNTIES ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 25-30
DEGREES PER THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. WOULD EXPECT ANY PRECIP FALLING
TO BE FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AT THIS POINT, WE
DON'T ANTICIPATE ANY CHANGES TO OUR CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION. WE MAY BE ABLE TO END THE ADVISORY EARLY AS
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THAT. ALL
PRECIP WILL TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS
BEGIN TO WARM. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
ON SUNDAY. WE WILL TOUCH ON THAT HERE IN A BIT. THERE IS ALSO A
LOW CHANCE FOR ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR LIGHT
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND
THIS SYSTEM AND INTERACTS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR THAT LOOKS
TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT BUT WOULD POSE A BLACK ICE RISK AS WE HEAD INTO THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.
TO STICK WITH THE ONGOING WINTER THREAT, LET'S DISCUSS OUR
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT TOMORROW. LOW
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 10-25 DEGREES AND
5-15 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL RANGE FROM 0-15 DEGREES AT TIMES. WE WENT AHEAD AND
TRANSITIONED THE EXTREME COLD WATCH TO A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
WITH THIS UPDATE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR OUR NW
COUNTIES TO TOUCH EXTREME COLD WARNING CRITERIA MONDAY MORNING.
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG OUR WINDS ARE. AN UPGRADE TO A
WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANOTHER ADVISORY AND/OR
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WE NOW TRANSITION TO SUNDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. SPC HAS
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE
TOMORROW, A HEALTHY PLUME OF WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD NORTH AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A WIND
ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PIKE AND BARBOUR COUNTIES AS GUST
UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 11 AM - 3 PM. THE PARAMETER SPACE
WILL BE MORE OF LOW CAPE, HIGH SHEAR SCENARIO AS CAPE VALUES TOP
OUT IN THE 500-700 J/KG RANGE WITH BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 60 KNOTS.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A PLUME 0-3 KM SRH OVER 400
M2/S2. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS
ISOLATED TORNADOES AS A QLCS MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE 30S
AND 40S WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S EACH MORNING.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE LATE THIS MORNING.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY BACKS THIS UP AS WE CAN SEE A FEW POCKETS
OF SUN MIXED IN WITH THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK. EXPECT MVFR TO
PREVAIL EVERYWHERE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS RAIN CONTINUES
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY LATE TO
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS LIKELY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH US TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF WINDOW WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA COME AFTER
THIS TAF PERIOD.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES BY MONDAY. DRY AIR WILL
QUICKLY WORK INTO THE REGION BY THE NEW WORKWEEK, WITH MINRH
VALUES DROPPING BACK BETWEEN 30-40%. GIVEN THE WET FUELS, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 38 59 16 32 / 100 100 20 0
ANNISTON 39 60 19 34 / 100 100 20 0
BIRMINGHAM 43 60 19 32 / 100 100 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 40 58 19 34 / 100 100 10 0
CALERA 45 62 19 35 / 100 100 20 0
AUBURN 44 64 24 38 / 70 90 50 0
MONTGOMERY 51 70 23 39 / 80 100 30 0
TROY 53 72 23 40 / 60 100 50 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLOUNT-CHEROKEE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-LAMAR-MARION-WALKER-
WINSTON.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM CST
MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-
BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-
DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-
LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-
RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR-PIKE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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