117
FXUS64 KBMX 200558
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1158 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1153 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
- THERE IS A LOW (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON SATURDAY. QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
JUST A QUICK UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE, THE MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN REMOVED FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD.
95/CASTILLO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS HAVE SHOWN UP ON THE KBMX RADAR THIS EVENING AS
GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY OUT TO OUR WEST STRETCHING TEXAS UP
INTO LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, A SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
DRAGGING A THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY SUNRISE. RAIN CHANCES
WILL RAMP UP, GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
STATE. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE CWA AND LINGERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR 2
POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
1) FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SPC HAS PLACED THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR THIS
PERIOD. A PASSING H85-H7 VORT MAX COMBINED WITH A CORRIDOR OF MUCAPE
FROM 500-700 J/KG AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED HAIL THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
2) SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) SHIFTS SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. MAIN THREATS ON SATURDAY
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, SRH VALUES DO A
SUPPORT A LOW TORNADO THREAT.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS ARE LOOKING PRETTY CHILLY
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
AL AS LOWER CLOUDS BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH. CURRENTLY EXPECT AN INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL AL AFTER 09Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AND ANY RAIN SHOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT, SO ONLY LIMITED
IMPACTS TO VIS. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z FOR MOST
SITES, THEN RETURN TO MVFR FOR MGM AND AUO LATE IN THE PERIOD JUST
BEFORE 06Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, GUSTING AT TIMES. THEN SHIFTS TO
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE STATE, MUCH DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. MIN RHS ON
FRIDAY WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR 30% ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. AT
THIS TIME, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO NEGATE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. RHS REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50-70% RANGE ON
SATURDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE. MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO
THE 20-30% RANGE DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 57 72 50 69 / 80 20 80 50
ANNISTON 60 73 53 69 / 80 30 80 60
BIRMINGHAM 60 73 54 69 / 80 20 80 50
TUSCALOOSA 59 73 54 72 / 80 20 80 50
CALERA 60 74 55 72 / 80 30 80 60
AUBURN 64 74 64 73 / 50 60 70 90
MONTGOMERY 65 76 63 76 / 50 60 60 90
TROY 66 78 64 77 / 40 60 60 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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