180
FXUS64 KBMX 170521
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1221 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIMITED RAIN, GENERALLY LESS THAN A
HALF-INCH, SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PROVIDING
MINIMAL RELIEF FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
- CRITICALLY DRY FUELS, STRONG WINDS, AND LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ELEVATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
ONE MORE DAY OF "STATUS-QUO" CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT TODAY, BEFORE THE
HIGHLY ANTICIPATED TROUGH AND COLD FRONT START WORKING INTO THE
REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH TO OUR BENEFIT, GUIDANCE IS
STARTING TO PAINT A SLIGHTLY WETTER SCENARIO THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN IT
COMES TO TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT, ANY RAIN IS
WELCOMED, BUT THIS WILL HARDLY BE A DROP IN THE PAN FOR WHAT WE NEED
TO BREAK THIS ONGOING DROUGHT. IN GENERAL, LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT TO
SEE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH EVEN LESS AMOUNTS IN
THE AREAS WITH HIGHEST DROUGHT DEFICITS. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
BE DRY, WITH EYES TURNING TO NEXT WEEKEND AT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
RAINFALL THEN.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP SOME 15-20 DEGREES BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE UPPER-60S TO LOW-
70S. CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY MAY EVEN APPROACH RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA GIVEN STRONG WINDS AND LOW MINRH VALUES. HOWEVER, SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL DROP, SO THAT WILL BE
SOMETHING WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY START TO WARM, WITH HIGHS REACHING BACK
INTO THE MID-80S BY THURSDAY.
/44/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. CONTINUED WITH A MENTION OF MVFR VIS AT BHM/EET AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. OPTED TO INTRODUCE TEMPO GROUPS FOR
REDUCED VIS AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS BASED ON THE LATEST TIME
HEIGHTS AND HREF PROBABILITIES. ANY VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY 14/15Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH FROM 5-
10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
FUELS REMAINING CRITICALLY DRY. WHILE WE DO EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO
INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, IT WON'T BE THE DROUGHT BUSTING RAIN
THAT WE DESPERATELY NEED. WINDS WILL BE STRONG OVER THE WEEKEND AS
WELL, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, BEFORE DECREASING
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, IT LOOKS LIKE MINRH WILL DRAMATICALLY DROP BEHIND
THIS FRONT, WITH LOW MINRH VALUES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 17:
KBHM: 90/1955
KEET: 86/2013
KTCL: 92/1955
KMGM: 90/1955
APRIL 18:
KBHM: 91/2006
KEET: 90/2006
KANB: 90/1955
KMGM: 91/2006
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 88 60 85 46 / 0 0 10 80
ANNISTON 89 61 85 49 / 0 0 0 70
BIRMINGHAM 89 64 85 49 / 0 0 10 80
TUSCALOOSA 89 61 85 49 / 0 0 20 80
CALERA 90 61 85 49 / 0 0 10 80
AUBURN 88 61 85 56 / 0 0 0 40
MONTGOMERY 90 60 86 53 / 0 0 0 50
TROY 89 58 85 54 / 0 0 0 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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