188
FXUS64 KBMX 060553
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1253 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- HEAT: HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 95-100 DEGREE
RANGE THURSDAY AND INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, HEAT INDICES WILL
RANGE FROM 96-104, RESULTING IN A MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
THIS EVENING, THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DIPPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US SHOULD BE ABSORBED BACK INTO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CONUS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT ALABAMA WILL BE IN A BENIGN WEAK AREA SOUTH OF THE
MAIN BROAD FLAT TROUGH AND IN-BETWEEN TWO RIDGES, ONE ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS AND THE OTHER ELONGATED EXTENDING EASTWARD OFF OF THE
VA/NC COAST WITH ONLY MINOR PERTURBATIONS TRAVERSING THE WEAK
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION THAT WILL BE MAINLY OUTFLOW DRIVEN.
BY MONDAY, THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE FLATTENS AND RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WILL
BE THE SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES BEFORE THIS WILL BE IN THE
EASTERN HALF. AFTER THIS REORIENTATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE, THE
NORTHERN AREAS MAY SEE A TAD MORE EFFECTS FROM SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY,
BUT NOT BY MUCH.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, READINGS DO CLIMB UP A SMALL AMOUNT THIS
WEEKEND WITH OVERALL MOISTURE NOT CHANGING MUCH. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER IN
SPOTS. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, GUIDANCE DOES NOT WARRANT A HEAT
ADVISORY JUST YET. WILL BE MONITORING THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS IF THAT TREND CHANGES.
08
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA IS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PROB30S REMAIN FOR MOST SITES EXCEPT MGM,
WHERE CONFIDENCE OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS A BIT LOWER THERE. WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE CALM OR VARIABLE, STAYING LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HELP KEEP MINRH VALUES GENERALLY
ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY. BECAUSE OF THIS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 90 71 92 72 / 50 20 40 20
ANNISTON 89 71 90 71 / 40 20 40 10
BIRMINGHAM 90 73 91 73 / 30 20 40 10
TUSCALOOSA 93 73 93 74 / 30 20 30 10
CALERA 91 72 92 72 / 30 20 40 10
AUBURN 88 72 89 74 / 20 30 30 20
MONTGOMERY 93 73 94 74 / 20 20 20 10
TROY 92 71 92 72 / 20 30 20 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...56/GDG
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