473
FXUS64 KBMX 302340
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
640 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
- HEAT: MODERATE HEAT RISK FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN AREAS TODAY, AS
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL NEAR 105 DEGREES.
- SEVERE WEATHER: THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA
SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
- HEAVY RAIN: CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES
AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE POOLS
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING BOUNDARY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
FOCUS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS NEAR A STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THAT WILL
REMAIN THE CASE OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.
THAT FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY, IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO
TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN STATES. PWATS AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
START TO INCREASE BY LATE FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LIFT
ON SATURDAY, MUCH MORE THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE IN THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE
INCREASED INSTABILITY, LOWERING HEIGHTS AND 500MB TEMPERATURES,
AND THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH, NUMEROUS STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN QUESTION ON POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS
WHETHER THE SHEAR WILL AMPLE ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE STORMS TO A
SUFFICIENT LEVEL. REGARDLESS OF STORM SEVERITY, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
A CONCERN AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER LOW SLOWS DOWN AND
HELPS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO FEED INTO OUR REGION.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN, WITH DAILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
/61/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
HAZE FROM SMOKE WILL LIKELY REMAIN AN ISSUE AT TCL AND EET THE
NEXT 24-HOURS, WITH BOTH TERMINALS CARRYING REDUCED VIS BECAUSE
OF IT. OTHERWISE, TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY FOR MOST
OF THE EVENING AND MORNING TOMORROW. PAST 31/20Z, ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TCL, MGM, AND AUO AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY
HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE PROB30 GROUPS AT THIS TIME.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL HELP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN
CHECK FOR THE WEEK. MINRH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
50 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN
FROM THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH RHS DROPPING TO AROUND
40%. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NEGATE ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 66 92 71 87 / 0 0 30 90
ANNISTON 67 90 72 85 / 0 0 40 100
BIRMINGHAM 72 92 73 87 / 0 10 50 80
TUSCALOOSA 74 92 74 89 / 10 40 50 70
CALERA 71 93 73 88 / 0 20 50 80
AUBURN 72 90 74 83 / 0 20 30 100
MONTGOMERY 73 93 73 88 / 20 40 40 80
TROY 72 91 72 86 / 30 60 40 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../44/
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