322
FXUS64 KBMX 191111
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
611 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
- HEAT: MAJOR HEATRISK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORKWEEK. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 103 TO 109
DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- SEVERE STORMS: A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 TODAY FROM 2 PM THROUGH 10 PM. DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE PRIMARY RISK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
SOME HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPECTED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT
AFFECTS THE MID-SOUTH REGION TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY TO MIGRATE
FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOT TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PERSISTENT HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN STRONG SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY WHILE SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL CREATE
FAVORABLE WET MICROBURST CONDITIONS THAT WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. GRIDS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL WITH RISK GRAPHICS IN PROCESS
OF BEING CREATED AND DISSEMINATED.
05
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
BY TOMORROW, THE APEX OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED
WEST, PLANTING ITSELF NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. HOWEVER, THIS RIDGE
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED FOR THE NEXT 48-HOURS, KEEPING
THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST NORTH OF THE STATE. BECAUSE OF THAT,
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO MEET HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, WITH ONE REMAINING IN EFFECT
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE'LL NEED
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOME LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY, BUT THIS
SHOULD BE THE LAST ONE NEEDED BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
REALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT.
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER QUEBEC AND ONTARIO, DEEPENING THE TROUGH SITUATED OVER
THE MIDWEST. THIS TROUGH SHOULD START TO INFILTRATE THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING ALONG WITH IT
INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF
THIS TROUGH, ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE IT SHIFTS TO THE EAST COME MONDAY.
THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO FILTER BACK INTO THE AREA,
ALLOWING FOR PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AT MGM EARLY THIS
MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AREAWIDE. EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS MIDDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HEAVIER SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTHWEST MAY
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A PROB30 TEMPO WAS ADDED TO
TCL FROM 21Z TO 00Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RISK.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 35 AND 45% THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, BEFORE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BEFORE
INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
CURRENTLY LOW, BUT THEY WILL START TO INCREASE BY MONDAY NO
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL OCCURS WITH THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 97 73 97 73 / 0 0 30 30
ANNISTON 94 72 95 72 / 0 0 30 30
BIRMINGHAM 95 75 96 75 / 20 0 30 40
TUSCALOOSA 99 76 99 75 / 30 20 30 30
CALERA 96 74 97 74 / 20 10 30 30
AUBURN 93 74 94 75 / 0 0 30 30
MONTGOMERY 97 75 99 74 / 20 10 20 30
TROY 96 73 98 73 / 10 10 20 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-
GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LOWNDES-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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