871
FXUS64 KBMX 100521
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1221 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
- PERSISTENT HEAT: AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK, KEEPING
HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 DEGREES. TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WITH ANY
EXTENDED AFTERNOON OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
THIS EVENING, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGGING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF AN EASTERN CANADA MAIN LOW WILL EAT AWAY AT THE UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE ENOUGH OF
A NORTHWEST FLOW TO PUSH A SURFACE FRONT CLOSE TO ALABAMA BY
EARLY FRIDAY AS THE PARENT ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS AND OUT OF QUEBEC. AS IT DOES SO, THE FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY AND
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, DON'T LOOK FOR PUMPKIN SPICED LATTE WEATHER
JUST YET. LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF
ALABAMA ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE MAIN
ENERGY FROM THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY PUSHING BACK WELL TO THE NORTH, GIVING
WAY TO A MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH INTO THE STATE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS,
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGHING SHIFTS CLOSER TO ALABAMA WITH AMPLE
DISTURBANCE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
LOW, QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER THIS TIME FRAME
WITH A FEW LOCALLY ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
BY SUNDAY, THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHERN US. WHILE THERE IS STILL A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY TO OCCUR, IT SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OVERALL. BY MONDAY, AND ON INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN FURTHER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL YIELD AN
EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND MORE DIURNALLY ENHANCED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN WITH LOW QPF
AMOUNTS.
08
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5-8 KNOTS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS. THEREFORE, PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA ARE IN PLACE AT AUO/MGM
STARTING AT 20Z.
AMD NOT SKED IS APPENDED AT TCL DUE TO MISSING OBSERVATIONS.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 40% THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. WHILE DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW (10-30%) THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEY WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW FOR NOW, INCREASING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PUSH THESE CONCERNS UP DURING NEXT WEEK IF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT SEEN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 95 71 93 70 / 10 10 50 60
ANNISTON 93 71 91 71 / 10 10 60 50
BIRMINGHAM 94 73 91 72 / 10 10 80 60
TUSCALOOSA 97 73 92 72 / 10 10 80 60
CALERA 94 72 90 72 / 10 10 80 60
AUBURN 91 72 89 72 / 20 20 70 40
MONTGOMERY 94 72 91 72 / 30 20 80 40
TROY 93 71 91 71 / 40 30 70 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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