380
FXUS64 KBMX 020334
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1034 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK: A WARMING TREND WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO
105-108 EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING REVEALS A STOUT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EDOUARD CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS.
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THAT SAID,
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW (10-20%) CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION AS A HEALTHY PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER AS WIND SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY WILL
BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO AS WE
REACH PEAK HEATING. LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES
WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
OUR INCREASING HEAT RISK WILL BE THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S DAILY WITH
HEAT INDICES PUSHING INTO THE 105-108 DEGREE RANGE. THIS WILL
PROMOTE A MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
DAILY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WERE NO CHANGES MADE
THIS EVENING REGARDING OUR CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY. IT REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 8 PM SATURDAY
EVENING. WE CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE THE IMPORTANCE OF HYDRATION AND
LIMITING OUTDOOR EXPOSURE TO MITIGATE THE SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 6-
8 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION
OUTAGE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40% THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. LOW (10 TO 20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE DAILY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY LOW, BUT
DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RAISE THESE CONCERNS BY
NEXT WEEK GIVEN A LACK OF FORECAST RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 73 97 75 97 / 0 10 0 10
ANNISTON 72 95 73 95 / 0 10 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 75 97 76 96 / 0 10 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 75 99 76 99 / 0 10 0 10
CALERA 74 96 75 96 / 0 10 0 10
AUBURN 74 93 74 93 / 0 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 75 98 75 97 / 0 10 10 10
TROY 73 96 73 95 / 0 10 10 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-
ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-
SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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