619
FXUS64 KBMX 131127
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
627 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
- HEAT: HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100-105 DEGREES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CREATING A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK.
PLEASE PRIORITIZE HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS.
- HEAVY RAINFALL: A WET PATTERN BEGINS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST,
WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
CONVECTION IS OVER FOR TONIGHT WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS
LINGERING ON SATELLITE IN ITS WAKE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AND PUSH BACK NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY WITH
LITTLE ASSISTANCE FROM THE ZONAL UPPER FLOW AROUND A SOUTHERN US
RIDGE TO GET IT THROUGH THE AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT MOVEMENT IS
IN RESPONSE TO A SECOND SURFACE FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOR SATURDAY,
ONLY LOW DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH LESS
FOCUS. THIS SECOND FRONT IS THE ONE THAT WE WILL BE LOOKING AT
FOR INCREASED CONVECTION STARTING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO STALL, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS
MOST OF OUR COUNTIES WITH A MODERATE CHANCE OF STALLING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SOME, BUT THAT WILL BE PARTLY DUE TO CONTINUED CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY AS WE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DRY OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND IT. RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY
ELEVATED FOR MANY, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING EXPECTED WITH DISTURBANCES
INTERACTING WITH THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY
MEANDER A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA BEFORE
STALLING AGAIN AND FIZZLING OUT WITH ONSHORE MOISTURE COMING BACK
INTO PLAY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, WE SEE YET A 3RD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH TO
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A MEDIUM
PROBABILITY OF IT STALLING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO ROUND
OUT OUR WEEK AS TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES CREEP BACK UP
TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN.
08
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE THINKING FOR THE 12Z TAFS. MOST TERMINALS
WILL REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD, AS THE REGION
STAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDING. WITH THAT BEING
SAID, SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE PAST 13/20Z,
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN PROB30S FOR TSRA
AT THIS TIME.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGHER FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP MINRH VALUES
ABOVE 40% THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 92 74 89 69 / 20 20 80 60
ANNISTON 91 74 89 70 / 20 20 70 60
BIRMINGHAM 93 75 91 70 / 30 20 60 70
TUSCALOOSA 94 76 92 71 / 20 20 40 70
CALERA 96 75 94 71 / 30 20 50 60
AUBURN 95 75 92 73 / 20 20 40 30
MONTGOMERY 95 76 93 73 / 30 20 20 50
TROY 95 75 93 73 / 30 20 20 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION.../44/
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