093
FXUS64 KBMX 312351
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS TODAY AND MONDAY. A BREAK IN RAINY
WEATHER IS FORECAST MID TO LATE THIS WEEK.
- THERE IS A RISK FOR A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO IMPACT PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
CLOUD COVER QUICKLY CLEARED OUT THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR A RAPID
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 80S BY MID MORNING. IT'S DEFINITELY A MUGGY DAY OUT THERE.
A GROWING CU FIELD ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR TELLS ME
THAT OUR INITIAL EXPECTATIONS ARE LIKELY ON TRACK AS A BACKDOOR
FRONT NUDGING IN FROM THE EAST WILL ACT AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY, AND HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST THIS ZONE WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS OUTFLOW PROPAGATION LEADS TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.
POPS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS OUR WEST AND NEAR THE AL/MS STATE LINE.
A RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A STUBBORN
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TOMORROW. SOME MODELS SUGGEST AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL INITIATE
AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THE OZARKS TOMORROW MORNING WHICH WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AND DIVE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH A HIGHLY
UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY LAYER ALOFT BEGINNING NEAR 650MB WHICH
IS SUPPORTING DCAPE VALUES OF 1200-1300 J/KG TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THIS COUPLED WITH 25-30 KTS OF BULK SHEAR AND ACCELERATING COLD
POOL DRIVEN STORM MOTIONS WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE INVOLVED THAN IS BEING
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY THE MARGINAL SEVERE RISK. HOWEVER, MODEL
AGREEABILITY REMAINS POOR CONCERNING THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
SCOPE OF THE POTENTIAL MCS, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
SEVERE RISK REMAINS LOW.
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
MIDWEST REGION ON TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE MID-
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST REGION
MAINTAINING WARM BUT DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LOWER AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
AN ELONGATED AXIS OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE, ALONGSIDE MEANDERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY WANING
COVERAGE AND CESSATION OF ACTIVITY BY 05Z. AREAS OF LFR CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG ARE THEN FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING (EXCEPT FOR WEST ALABAMA/TCL). VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY
LATE MORNING. IMPACTS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS ARE FORECAST
SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY FROM A SOUTHWARD-MOVING
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. CURRENT BEST
TIMING ESTIMATES ARE IN THE TAFS AS TEMPOS, THOUGH EXPECT SOME
TWEAKS AS WE GET CLOSER.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE WEEK AHEAD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY. RAIN-
FREE WEATHER IS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH LOW CHANCES
RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 65 85 65 83 / 40 40 30 20
ANNISTON 66 85 66 83 / 40 30 30 20
BIRMINGHAM 68 87 68 84 / 40 50 50 20
TUSCALOOSA 71 90 70 86 / 20 50 50 30
CALERA 68 90 68 86 / 50 50 50 20
AUBURN 69 88 69 85 / 40 20 30 50
MONTGOMERY 70 89 69 86 / 50 30 40 40
TROY 69 90 69 87 / 60 30 20 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86/MARTIN
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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