353
FXUS64 KBMX 111117
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
617 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
- DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES, RESULTING IN A
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY,
INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
CONDITIONS REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE SENDING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION, A COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD, EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE CWA.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND LIFT FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL WARRANT AN
ABOVE NORMAL (40-60%) CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OUR ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE SENDING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF ENERGY INTO THE REGION.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS IS THE INCREASING HEAT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONSISTENTLY REACH THE LOW-TO-MID 90S, WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING HIGH HUMIDITY. CONSEQUENTLY,
HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DAILY, CREATING
MODERATE-TO-MAJOR HEAT RISKS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY FOR
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE COOLING AND
HYDRATION.
16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
PATCHY LIGHT FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING, AFFECTING TCL, MGM,
AND AUO WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY. TEMPO MVFR VIS THROUGH 13Z AT
THESE SITES. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHERWISE. SOME
CAMS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
12
FIRE WEATHER
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE DAILY THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT STALLS
NEARBY. AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP MINRH VALUES ABOVE 40%
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 91 73 92 73 / 10 0 20 20
ANNISTON 91 73 91 73 / 20 0 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 92 74 93 74 / 10 0 20 20
TUSCALOOSA 93 75 94 75 / 0 0 10 10
CALERA 95 74 95 74 / 10 0 10 20
AUBURN 93 75 94 75 / 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 93 75 94 75 / 10 0 0 10
TROY 94 73 94 75 / 10 0 10 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...12
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