172
FXUS64 KBMX 062347
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
647 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
- AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVELS 3 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THREATS INCLUDE ISOLATED,
BRIEF TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND LARGE HAIL.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) OF FLASH FLOODING WITH
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
IN URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TIMING IS GENERALLY AROUND
1 PM IN THE FAR NORTHWEST, WITH A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE LINE OF
STORMS TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. CAMS HAVE BEEN COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING, AND SHOW ISOLATED STORMS
MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. INSTABILITY IS BETWEEN 1500-
2500 J/KG WITH THESE INITIAL STORMS, AND 0-1 KM SHEAR IS MILD,
THOUGH 0-6 KM SHEAR IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS. THESE
ISOLATED STORMS COULD EASILY ROTATE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS
AND A TORNADO, THOUGH THE THREAT MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
STORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW, PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES OR
HIGHER TODAY THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS IS MUCH GREATER THAN MAX
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY, AND WITH THE STEERING
FLOW PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY, STORMS ARE LIKELY TO TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS, PRODUCING HIGH RAIN RATES AND HIGH RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. THE HIGHEST TOTALS LOOK TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
WHERE THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF TRAINING STORMS IS EXPECTED.
VALUES OF 4-5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ANY STRONGER STORMS. ANY STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAIN RATES
ENOUGH TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES SO DRIVING COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS.
FLOODING IS A CONCERN THROUGH THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE
TRAINING STORMS.
AS THE LINE MOVES SOUTH AND EAST, INDIVIDUAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE ALONG THAT LINE. LOW LCLS, ENOUGH INSTABILITY, AND AN
INCREASE IN 0-1 KM SHEAR TO 40-50 KTS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED TORNADO
THREAT. MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE FROM A STRONG MID LEVEL JET,
WHICH CAUSES THAT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR, AND WILL ALSO
SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFT AND LONGER LIVED STORMS. CAMS HAVE THAT
LINE MOVING INTO THE I85 AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH A CONCENTRATION
OF WEATHER IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER IN THE SOUTHEAST, VALUES TOPPING
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG, BUT SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CONTINUING.
THURSDAY MORNING, THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST,
AND SHOULD PUSH ALL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA, BRINGING DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR, AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. BY FRIDAY EVENING, A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND,
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THROUGH
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER ON SUNDAY, AND SHEAR WILL BE
MODERATE, ALLOWING FOR STRONG ATOMS TO DEVELOP, THOUGH POTENTIAL
FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NIGHT, WITH RAIN
DECREASING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, AND NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING
DRIER AIR TO THE STATE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
24
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE ACTIVITY REMAINS STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS
THE SOUTH (MGM AND AUO). STORMS IN THE NORTH, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MAIN FRONTAL ZONE, REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE WITH POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW STRIKES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT MGM
AND AUO WILL SEE THE BIGGEST IMPACTS THROUGH THE FIRST 6 TO
9 HOURS. RAIN AND MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
STORMS LINE OF STORMS. ANY STORM MOVING OVER A TAF SITE WILL
PRODUCE HIGH RAIN RATES TO DROP VISIBILITIES TO IFR OR LIFR, AND
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR IFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH WITH RAIN LINGERING
OVER EACH TAF SITE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING, BEFORE NORTHERLY
FLOW BRINGS DRY AIR AND A DECREASE IN RAIN THROUGH MID MORNING
THURSDAY.
AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR TCL DUE TO INTERMITTENT
OBSERVATIONS.
16
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
PLENTY OF RAIN THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. IN
TOTAL, SOME LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH 4-5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER
A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, RAIN RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE HIGHER
MINRH VALUES AND UPCOMING RAIN, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN
LITTLE TO NONE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 57 72 45 73 / 100 20 0 0
ANNISTON 60 72 48 73 / 100 40 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 60 72 51 74 / 100 20 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 60 75 51 75 / 100 10 0 0
CALERA 61 75 51 75 / 100 30 0 0
AUBURN 67 77 55 73 / 100 80 0 10
MONTGOMERY 67 77 54 74 / 100 70 0 20
TROY 68 78 56 74 / 80 90 10 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-
PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...16
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