264
FXUS64 KBMX 280517
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1217 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
- FIRE WEATHER: THERE IS A MEDIUM FIRE WEATHER RISK THROUGH FRIDAY
DUE TO DRY FUELS AND LIMITED MOISTURE.
- HALLOWEEN EVENING: RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND.
WHETHER THE RAINIEST WEATHER HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER
TRICK-OR-TREAT HOURS IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME, BUT YOU SHOULD AT
LEAST PLAN FOR RAINY IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
BREAK DOWN AS A BROAD TROUGH BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OUT WEST.
DUE TO THIS BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN, FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO THE SW, ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AIRMASS
OVERHEAD. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND, A WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A SERIES OF LEADING
IMPULSES BRANCHING OFF TO THE SOUTH. IT'S THESE DISTURBANCES THAT
WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN FALLING ON SATURDAY, AND LOW
RAIN PROBABILITIES LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE NEW WORKWEEK SHOULD START ON THE DRY SIDE, WITH NO ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THAT BEING SAID, LONG-
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY HIGHLIGHTING A BROADER
PATTERN BREAKDOWN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE EXACT
IMPACTS FROM THIS PATTERN BREAKDOWN REMAIN TO BE SEEN, CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL RAIN ACTIVITY, AND A SWING BACK TO
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
/44/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD,
WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY WINDS 4-8 KTS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.
HOWEVER, SOME DROPS IN VIS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT TCL AND
MGM DUE TO LIGHT FOG. IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND VIS, IF
CONDITIONS DO FALL, SHOULD CLEAR UP BY 12Z.
NOTE: FALL SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE KASN TALLADEGA TAF BEGAN ON
10/18 00Z AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10/28 18Z.
12
FIRE WEATHER
REGIONAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CARRY OUR RAIN-FREE WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY. MINRHS WILL BE AS LOW AS AN UPPER 20 TO LOW 30 PERCENT
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INCREASING DEW POINTS STARTING THURSDAY
WILL NUDGE MINRH FARTHER ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN IS
LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE BRUNT OF ACTIVITY FAVORING
SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 75 45 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 75 48 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 76 50 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 78 47 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 75 49 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 75 54 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 78 49 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 76 50 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...12
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