834
FXUS64 KBMX 100322
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1022 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: DAILY OPPORTUNITIES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
NORMAL SUMMERTIME HAZARDS SUCH AS GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, BEFORE WE GET THERE, WE'LL HAVE
ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER ON FRIDAY
AND POTENTIALLY SATURDAY. AN ONGOING MCS IN WESTERN TN IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT, BUT WILL LIKELY PUSH
A REMNANT BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL AL THAT COULD PROVIDE SOME EXTRA
FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, THERE'S SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF THAT BOUNDARY AS GUIDANCE DOESN'T TYPICALLY RESOLVE
THESE FEATURES. FOR NOW, THE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHER RAIN/STORM
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AL. OTHERWISE, BROAD LOW LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD
HELP LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS FOR FRIDAY. AS WITH
MANY SUMMER DAYS, ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND, A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO AND TN
VALLEYS. THIS WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL AL AND SUPPORT
HIGHER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY ON
SATURDAY, THE HIGHEST RAIN/STORM CHANCES (60-70%) WILL PRIMARILY
BE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY
THOSE CHANCES GO UP TO 80% FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AL. THESE HIGH RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
POTENTIALLY BECOMES A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW THAT SLOWLY MEANDERS
THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS UPPER LOW,
BUT GENERALLY HAS IT WEAKENING AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE LARGER RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND THE RIDGING BUILDS IN,
WE'LL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND CHANCES (30-40%) BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE A REMNANT
BOUNDARY FROM STORMS IN WEST TN THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AL TONIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOCUS FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH, SO
I'VE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA AT BHM AND EET. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WITH OUR TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO OUTAGE
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 72 93 73 90 / 20 30 40 80
ANNISTON 73 92 74 90 / 20 20 30 80
BIRMINGHAM 74 93 75 92 / 20 10 20 70
TUSCALOOSA 74 93 75 92 / 10 10 10 60
CALERA 73 96 75 95 / 20 10 10 70
AUBURN 74 92 75 91 / 20 20 10 40
MONTGOMERY 74 94 75 94 / 20 20 10 40
TROY 73 94 74 94 / 20 20 10 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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