091
FXUS64 KBMX 191900
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
- THERE IS A LOW (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
SATELLITE IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A FEW
PEAKS OF SUN HERE AND THERE. WE HAVE GENEROUS GULF MOISTURE
PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A NICE S/SW FLOW WITH GUSTY
WINDS. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MINOR DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE UPPER SW
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PRESENT ACROSS MO TODAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING S AND SW
FROM IT ACROSS AR AND INTO TX. THE LOW WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AND DRAG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY E/SEWD
INTO THE SE US AND MIDWAY THROUGH C AL BY DAYBREAK ON FRI. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO FRI ACROSS C AL IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW DOWN/STALL ACROSS THE SRN HALF
OF THE CWA FRI INTO SAT BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
A FEW TSTORMS MAY OCCUR FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS
A LOW 1/5 MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SAT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF C AL
WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A SECOND ROUND WITH
A LOW 1/5 MARGINAL RISK WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE SRN HALF OF C AL
FOR DURING THE DAY SAT INTO SAT EVENING WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREATS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE USHERED INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR SUN MORNING INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST FOR SUN NIGHT AND
MON NIGHT. FINALLY, RAIN CHANCES RETURN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FOR LATE NEXT WED.
08
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 959 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING REVEALS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH PREPARES TO EJECT OUT
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT CAN BE ANALYZED PARKED ACROSS TEXAS AND
ARKANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS AS IT
HINTS AT A FEW POCKETS OF CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DOWN TO THE
5-10MB RANGE THROUGH SUNRISE. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP LIKELY
WON'T LAST TOO LONG PAST SUNRISE AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO
PICK UP. WHILE CHANCES ARE LOW, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS INCREASED
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINES WITH SEVERAL H85-H7 IMPULSES THAT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BEGINS TO HEAD OUR WAY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP AS WE CLOSE OUT
THE WORK WEEK AS THIS BOUNDARY RUNS INTO A HEALTHY PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE CWA AND
LINGERS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, WE COULD SEE A
FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AXIS BECOMES ESTABLISHED. WITH THAT SAID, OUR WARM CLOUD DEPTH
DOESN'T LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE SO WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. OVERALL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5-1" CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LASTLY, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A CORRIDOR
OF CAPE VALUES FROM 400-700 J/KG SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, WE WILL BE LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THAT
FAR SOUTH.
BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A NUDGE TO
PUSH THE STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA. COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS ARE LOOKING PRETTY CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE BACK IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. MVFR
CONDITIONS RETURN OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY AFTER 06Z. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SOME IFR CIGS AT TIMES, BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO ADD ATTM.
LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT ARE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. THE BETTER CHANCES BEGINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND ON THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL ONLY INCLUDE -SHRA ATTM.
TS PROBS ARE TOO LOW. OUTSIDE OF THAT, GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE S-SW
8-15KTS AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
WNW-NW ON FRI MORNING, BUT NOT AS HIGH OR GUSTY.
08
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASED MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP KEEP MIN RH VALUES IN
THE 50-60% RANGE. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FRIDAY. AS
A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE STATE, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. MIN RHS ON FRIDAY WILL DROP
DOWN TO NEAR 30% ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. AT THIS TIME, WINDS
LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RHS
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50-70% RANGE ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE
STATE. MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20-30% RANGE DAILY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 77 57 74 51 / 20 80 20 80
ANNISTON 78 60 74 54 / 30 70 30 80
BIRMINGHAM 78 60 74 56 / 30 70 20 90
TUSCALOOSA 80 59 75 56 / 20 70 20 90
CALERA 80 60 76 57 / 20 70 20 90
AUBURN 78 65 75 63 / 20 50 60 80
MONTGOMERY 81 65 77 64 / 20 50 60 70
TROY 80 65 78 64 / 10 40 50 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08/95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...08
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