683
FXUS64 KBMX 301026
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
526 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 525 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS AND COMFORTABLE MORNINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
- LOOK FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY, 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 4
INCHES.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
THIS EVENING, SURFACE RIDGING IS SITUATED ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND CENTERED OVER VA/PA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THERE IS A WEAK
RIDGE ACROSS MEXICO INTO EAST TX AND LA PINNED BETWEEN A DIGGING
LOW OVER AZ INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A LARGE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD INCLUDING A WEAK LOW OVER FL
AND WEAK FLOW OVER AL. FOR TODAY AFTER A COOL START IN THE MIDDLE
50S TO THE LOWER 60S, WE WILL CREEP BACK UPWARD TODAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AL WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S. THIS
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARM FLOW OFF OF
THE GULF. THE HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY BUT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON TUESDAY.
OUR FURTHER EASTWARD SURFACE RIDGE IS SETTING UP A SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO AL FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK WITH
ONSHORE MOISTURE RETURN AND INCREASING DEW POINTS. MOISTURE WILL
NEED TO RECOVER A BIT BEFORE WE CAN EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN
CHANCES. VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF THIS FRONT
STALLING/MOVING VERY SLOWLY. THIS WILL YIELD CHANCES FOR SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FRIDAY, OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME, 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BEFORE ALL
IS SAID AND DONE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT A
FEW ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 4 INCHES. THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO HELP TO HAMPER THE WARM UP FROM PROGRESSING
FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT WE SHOULD
GET ENOUGH OF A PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS TO GET THE SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH ON MONDAY SO IT CAN USHER IN SOME COOLER READINGS BACK
INTO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
08
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND WITH
LIGHT SE WINDS.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
LIGHT WINDS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 20S THROUGH THE 30S PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE REGION.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AND
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 91 62 91 65 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 90 63 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 91 66 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 94 66 94 68 / 0 0 10 0
CALERA 91 65 91 68 / 0 0 10 0
AUBURN 88 66 88 68 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 91 67 91 69 / 0 0 20 10
TROY 91 67 90 67 / 0 0 20 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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