592
FXUS64 KBMX 012344
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
644 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER: THERE IS A LEVEL 1 TO 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF ALABAMA ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
- HEAVY RAIN: THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS WILL BE ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AREA RADARS
WERE SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS
IS A LITTLE EARLIER (BY A COUPLE/FEW HOURS) THAN HI-RES/CAMS
SHOWED. THE MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND LIFT IS AVAILABLE TO
CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES, HOWEVER, ARE MARGINAL AT
BEST IN ALABAMA AT THIS TIME DUE TO A MORE SOUTHWEST (VERSUS
SOUTH) LOW LEVEL WIND.
THUS, THE CURRENT THINKING FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA IS THAT WE WILL
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. AS
MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE INCREASES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, THERE'S BOUND TO BE SOME COLD POOL CONSOLIDATION
WHICH SHOULD BE THE MAIN DRIVER IN STORM ORGANIZATION. DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT, AND THAT WILL BE HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL ON HOW MUCH FORCING THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAN PROVIDE TO SUSTAIN PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. ANY
SEVERE THREAT THAT DOES MATERIALIZE SHOULD END IN OUR AREA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.
BEYOND TONIGHT, THE INITIAL UPPER LOW GETS SHEARED OUT INTO A
TROUGH, BEFORE CUTTING OFF AGAIN INTO ANOTHER UPPER LOW THAT
DRIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST RAIN
CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ONWARD, HEIGHTS AGAIN RISE AND
WE TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SUMMERTIME
WEATHER PATTERN.
/61/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
LATEST RADAR TRENDS NOW SHOW 2 BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
LEADING BAND IS NOW SOUTH OF BHM, TCL AND EET AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO MGM AND AUO AFTER 02 TO 03Z. TEMPO TSRA WAS ADDED TO
THE 02-05Z WINDOW. THE SECOND LINE IS WEST OF TCL AND JFX. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO TCL, BHM THROUGH 02 TO 03Z. THERE IS ONE
STORM EAST OF THIS LINE THAT COULD MOVE INTO BHM PRIOR TO 00Z.
CONTINUED TEMPO FOR TSRA ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 03 TO 04Z.
DEGRADED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR LESS THAN AN
HOUR, GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE LINE.
MODEL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW
CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT, WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 14 TO 15Z, SKIES SHOULD GO BACK
TO VFR AS MOST SITES WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST PUTS THE BEST CHANCES AT AUO AND MGM,
BUT EVEN THOSE CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL HELP KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN
CHECK INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH MINRH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
45 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AT
TIMES OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE
EAST BY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH RHS DROPPING TO AROUND 40%.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NEGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 71 88 69 87 / 90 10 10 70
ANNISTON 72 87 70 86 / 80 10 10 60
BIRMINGHAM 72 86 70 86 / 90 10 10 60
TUSCALOOSA 71 87 70 88 / 80 10 10 40
CALERA 71 88 69 88 / 90 0 10 50
AUBURN 73 86 72 85 / 60 30 10 40
MONTGOMERY 73 90 71 90 / 60 10 10 20
TROY 73 89 70 89 / 50 40 30 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION...16
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