684
FXUS64 KBMX 200354
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1054 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
- SEASONABLE WEATHER: SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
DRY NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK,
BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TROUGHING ALONG THE
EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
MAINTAINS A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS, WHILE A SURFACE LOW MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS. NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW TRAJECTORIES AT THE SURFACE RESULT IN COOL NIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXITS,
WHILE A CUTOFF LOW FORMS NEAR CUBA. THIS ALLOWS THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD EASTWARD, BUT A STRENGTHENING CAD
WEDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE ATLANTIC SYSTEM HELPS TO OFFSET THIS,
MAINTAINING PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NOTE: FALL SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE KASN TALLADEGA TAF BEGAN ON
10/18 00Z AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10/28 18Z.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
THE DRY AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST, WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE
ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MINRH VALUES GENERALLY
DROPPING TO 20-30% THROUGH THE WEEK. GIVEN THESE LOW MINRH VALUES
AND DRYING FUELS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MEDIUM INTO
THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 42 79 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 41 79 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 45 79 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 43 81 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 44 78 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 45 77 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 41 79 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 43 76 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...32/JDAVIS
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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