764
FXUS64 KBMX 261835
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
135 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOME STRONG AT
TIMES WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THERE IS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
- HEAT: TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY. HEAT
INDICES MAY REACH OR EXCEED 105 F IN SOME AREAS ON MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE STALLED COLD FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WE ARE CURRENTLY
MONITORING A WEAK IMPULSE EXITING OUR AREA, ACCOMPANIED BY A
BOUNDARY SHIFTING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
BOUNDARY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE NORTHERN
FEATURE MOVES SOUTH. AS WE WORK INTO THE AFTERNOON, THE BOUNDARY
IN OUR NORTH WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH, WHILE AN ADDITIONAL
BOUNDARY MAY BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE NORTH FROM ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY IN KENTUCKY. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH WILL BE LIMITED AS THE BULK OF
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, SO
GENERALLY ONLY HAVE 20-40% RAIN CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS, WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH 9 OR 10 PM IN THE FAR
SOUTH, BEFORE DISSIPATING FOR THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. IN THE NORTH AND WEST, WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, SO AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL CLIMB ABOVE 100 AND APPROACH THE 105 HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE NORTH AND WEST WILL
APPROACH THE 105 F THRESHOLD, CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE TRENDING
LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. CONSEQUENTLY, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
FOR A HEAT ADVISORY, THOUGH ISOLATED AREAS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH
105 F THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDING WILL LEAD TO RISING TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING MONDAY, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING IN A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) FROM THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE HAS BEGUN TO
INCREASE IN THE OVERALL PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND TIMING, SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN RAISED. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, A LINGERING
RISK FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS PERSISTS IN THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH 10 AM. WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM. WITH THIS MCS MOVING THROUGH, CONFIDENCE ON
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY ON
MONDAY REMAINS LOW.
TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER-90S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE. THE MCS TRAIN WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY, BUT AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT THE MAIN TRACK WILL BE TO OUR EAST, SO RAIN CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL AND THE HEAT MOST LIKELY WILL BE OPPRESSIVE. A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY. BY MID-WEEK, THE RIDGE
APPEARS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED AS A TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE
EAST COAST AND A DEEP LOW FORMS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FILTER IN
FROM THE NORTH, WITH HIGHS TRENDING TOWARD THE UPPER-80S AND LOW-
90S BY NEXT FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL MCS SYSTEMS REMAINS LIMITED, RESULTING IN LOWER
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM THROUGH 00Z FOR
MGM AND AUO. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
WITH VCSH FOR THESE SITES. OVERNIGHT, WE SHOULD SEE A COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE INTO THE NORTH AFTER 8 TO 9Z WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS IMPACTING THE TAF SITES BY 10 TO 11Z ACROSS THE NORTH
AND 13 TO 15Z ACROSS THE SOUTH.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
SUPPORTED BY A WARM, HUMID AIR MASS AND PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES.
MINRH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH
MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 73 92 74 96 / 30 40 10 10
ANNISTON 73 91 74 94 / 20 40 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 75 93 76 97 / 20 40 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 76 96 76 98 / 10 30 20 0
CALERA 75 93 75 100 / 10 40 10 0
AUBURN 75 92 76 95 / 10 30 10 0
MONTGOMERY 75 96 76 98 / 20 40 10 0
TROY 74 94 75 98 / 20 30 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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