139
FXUS64 KBMX 120518
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1218 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- PERSISTENT HEAT: AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REACH THE UPPER 80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK,
WITH HEAT INDICES FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO ABOVE 100 DEGREES. TAKE
EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WITH ANY EXTENDED AFTERNOON OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.
- THUNDERSTORMS: A BRIEF PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS
RAINFALL MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
EVENING RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, A LINGERING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX (MCV) CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, IT
WILL INTERACT WITH RICHER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTHEAST. THE
COMBINATION OF FORCED ASCENT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA. GIVEN LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN CAPPED AT 40 TO
60 PERCENT THROUGH MID-MORNING.
SCATTERED TO BROAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE,
ENSURING EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION WITH STRONGER CORES. WHILE
GENERAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO
1.0 INCH, LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY WHERE PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE TRAINING OCCURS. SEVERE WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, THOUGH LOCALIZED URBAN/LOW-LYING
NUISANCE FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
EXHIBITS VARIANCE REGARDING EXACT BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND PEAK
TIMING; THUS, POPS RANGE FROM 40% WEST TO 70% EAST THROUGH 7 PM,
WITH LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTING THROUGH 10 PM IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
ON SUNDAY, LEADING TO A MARKED DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO ISOLATED,
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (<30%
CHANCE). AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 90S BY
MONDAY. BROAD RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MAINTAIN THIS PERSISTENT WARM AND MOSTLY DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED WITH THE LOW
LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14 TO 15Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
MVFR TO VFR BY MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH PROB30 MAINTAINED DURING THE AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME.
AMD NOT SKED IS APPENDED AT TCL AND AUO DUE TO MISSING
OBSERVATIONS.
12
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 40% THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW FOR NOW, INCREASING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PUSH THESE CONCERNS UP DURING NEXT WEEK IF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOES NOT OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 88 69 93 68 / 60 20 0 0
ANNISTON 86 70 91 68 / 60 20 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 89 72 92 71 / 60 20 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 92 72 95 71 / 50 10 0 0
CALERA 88 71 92 70 / 60 20 10 0
AUBURN 86 71 91 71 / 60 20 20 0
MONTGOMERY 89 71 93 71 / 60 20 20 0
TROY 90 70 93 70 / 60 20 30 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...12
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