358
FXUS64 KBMX 222322
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
622 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL: A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
AND ISOLATED, BRIEF TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- FLOOD THREAT: A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AS
STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS MOVE ACROSS LOCATIONS WHERE SOIL
CONDITIONS REMAIN SATURATED.
- ACTIVE PATTERN: THE CURRENT WET, UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK, RESULTING IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
A VERY LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE
LOW NEAR MEMPHIS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MATRICULATE EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA GENERALLY BY 2 PM. OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD
PULSE UP QUICKLY, GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.
AMPLE INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS WOULD SUPPORT
THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. WITH THAT SAID, GUIDANCE IS
HIGHLIGHTING A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED SRH (200-300 M2/S2) DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS WILL POSE A BRIEF THREAT FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. GIVEN SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS, EVEN NON-
SEVERE WINDS COULD RESULT IN DOWNED TREES; REMAIN WEATHER AWARE
ON MONDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, WE WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING AT A DECENT RATE SO
THAT SHOULD HELP LIMIT OUR FLOODING THREAT. HOWEVER, A FULLY
SATURATED PROFILE AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH WILL LEAD TO HIGH
RAIN RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY, LEADING TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
ESTABLISH CONTROL TO THE WEST, RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SEVERAL H5 SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS REGIME,
MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK, MAXIMIZING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND, RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO LOWER AS A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TAKES CONTROL. OTHERWISE, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
THE AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CONVECTION TO OUR NORTHWEST EVOLVES. FOR
NOW, WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTIONS OF TEMPOS AND PROB30S FOR
TSRA THIS EVENING. LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO HINT AT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS HAD A TOUGH
TIME WITH TODAY'S ACTIVITY. BREEZY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS MVFR CEILINGS RETURN. VFR RETURNS BY MIDDAY AS
NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.
NOTE: METARS FROM AUO ARE AVAILABLE BUT MISSING DATA; THEREFORE,
AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AS WE WILL REMAIN IN A WET PATTERN
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP MINRH
VALUES ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 85 64 86 / 90 10 10 10
ANNISTON 70 84 66 86 / 90 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 70 85 68 88 / 90 10 10 30
TUSCALOOSA 71 86 70 88 / 90 20 10 50
CALERA 71 88 68 90 / 90 20 10 40
AUBURN 72 87 69 88 / 80 20 10 10
MONTGOMERY 72 87 70 88 / 80 20 10 40
TROY 72 87 70 88 / 70 40 10 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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