496
FXUS64 KBMX 171150
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
650 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT SOME COMMUNITIES ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL SEE THEIR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR BY EARLY
THIS WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION ON MONDAY, WITH INCREASED CHANCES TOWARD MID
TO LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING PAINTS A FAIRLY ACTIVE PICTURE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EJECT ACROSS THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF A STOUT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
AS A RESULT, WE CAN EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THERE IS A LOW (15-25%)
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS
DEWPOINTS NARROW OVERNIGHT. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AROUND
5MB SUPPORT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. A ~20 KNOT LLJ WILL
HELP USHER A PLUME OF HEALTHY MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE TOMORROW. THIS UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND A FEW PASSING
SHORTWAVES WILL WARRANT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THAT SAID, MOST WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
WE SEE THE PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO NUDGE THE UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MEANWHILE, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL EJECT ACROSS THE REGION, LEADING TO CONTINUED LOW TO
MODERATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
LASTLY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY MID WEEK WILL KNOCK ABOUT 5 DEGREES OFF
OUR HIGHS WITH TEMPS SETTLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
VFR AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WITH ONE
EXCEPTION. PATCHY MVFR VALLEY FOG MAY OCCUR AT TCL FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS AT TIMES.
08
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WITH THAT SAID, THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
AS A FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 89 62 88 64 / 10 0 10 10
ANNISTON 88 64 87 65 / 10 10 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 89 66 89 68 / 0 0 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 87 64 89 68 / 0 0 10 10
CALERA 89 63 90 66 / 0 0 20 10
AUBURN 89 66 88 67 / 20 10 20 0
MONTGOMERY 89 64 90 66 / 0 0 30 10
TROY 88 64 89 65 / 0 0 30 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...08
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