963
FXUS64 KBMX 252324
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
624 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- HEAT: INTENSE HEAT RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FROM MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH
HEAT INDICES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
BY LATER THIS MORNING, THE STALLED COLD FRONT WILL HAVE FINALLY
PULLED NORTH, EXITING THE REGION. HOWEVER, THAT WON'T BE AN END
TO OUR RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
RIDE SOUTH ALONG THE TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD, ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE
ORGANIZED SHOT AT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TODAY.
THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF INTO SUNDAY, BECOMING
A BIT MORE SCATTERED BY THE MORNING HOURS, COMPLETELY DECREASING
IN COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
BY MONDAY, A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE, AS A STOUT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WORKS INTO THE REGION VIA THE
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL IMMEDIATELY CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID-90S, BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN ON TUESDAY INTO THE MID
TO UPPER-90S. WHILE GUIDANCE REMAINS BULLISH ON SOME POCKETS OF
TRIPLE-DIGITS, CONFIDENCE HERE IS LOW GIVEN HOW MUCH RAINFALL
WE'VE RECENTLY RECEIVED. THE RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY RETROGRADE ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT THAT WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT DROP IN
AFTERNOON HIGHS. ANTICIPATED LOW TO MID-90S EACH DAY HEADED INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE, AS
THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. ALL TERMINALS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CATEGORY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY LOW. AS SUCH, I HAVE
MAINTAINED THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR SHRA PAST 26/09Z. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS PAST 26/16Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
SUPPORTED BY A WARM, HUMID AIR MASS AND PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES.
MINRH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH
MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 72 91 72 92 / 60 60 20 20
ANNISTON 73 89 73 91 / 60 60 20 20
BIRMINGHAM 74 91 75 94 / 60 60 20 20
TUSCALOOSA 75 92 75 94 / 60 60 20 20
CALERA 74 92 75 95 / 70 60 20 20
AUBURN 75 89 75 92 / 70 60 20 20
MONTGOMERY 75 93 75 95 / 60 60 20 20
TROY 74 92 74 94 / 40 30 20 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-JEFFERSON-ST.
CLAIR-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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