549
FXUS64 KBMX 051150
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
650 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
- SEASONABLE WEATHER: SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEGIN ON TUESDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE END OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THE REGION OVERNIGHT, AS
THE COLD FRONT KEEPS ITS SOUTHERN TRACK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE BEGINNING TODAY, SANS A
FEW REMAINING SHOWERS ALONG I-85. THESE DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH THE COLD FRONT
QUICKLY RETROGRADING BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY REBOUND, WITH HIGHS SETTLING INTO THE LOW
TO MID-80S. THANKFULLY, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL FALL TO A
SEASONABLE FEEL, WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION VIA THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY.
THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK WILL REMAIN IN THIS STEADY
STATE, BEFORE CONDITIONS BREAK DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE IS ALREADY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING SOME KIND
OF SHIFT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BY FRIDAY. SOME GUIDANCE IS FAR
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHERS, BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS, INTERACTING WITH
DISTURBANCES IN THE GULF. THIS WOULD USHER IN ADDITIONAL GULF
MOISTURE, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE
INLAND. WHILE THE SIGNAL IS HERE REGARDING SOME KIND OF PATTERN
BREAKDOWN, CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT OUTCOME IS LOW GIVEN THE WIDE
SPREAD IN CURRENT OUTCOMES.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ONE LAST ROUND OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE SRN TAF SITES (MGM/AUO), BUT ONLY LIGHTER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE,
MVFR TO LIFR STRATUS ARE SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AL THIS AM AND
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING WITH CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE AROUND 14-16Z AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES E/SE AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND IT. WHILE ALL SITES SHOULD GO VFR FROM 18-20Z,
SOME MVFR STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE NOTED AGAIN BY LATE
EVENING AT AUO BEFORE ENOUGH OF THE DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.
08
FIRE WEATHER
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS THROUGH THIS MONDAY. THE FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH WHILE THE
NORTH DRIES OUT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR RETURNS ON TUESDAY AND
PERSISTS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 82 57 82 52 / 10 0 0 0
ANNISTON 82 60 82 54 / 20 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 82 61 83 57 / 20 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 86 63 88 58 / 20 10 0 0
CALERA 82 63 83 57 / 20 10 0 0
AUBURN 78 64 79 60 / 30 20 0 0
MONTGOMERY 81 65 82 60 / 30 20 0 0
TROY 79 63 80 59 / 60 20 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...08
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