150
FXUS64 KBMX 261757
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1257 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL THINKING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST FOR OUR SW TODAY, WITH MOST OF THE REGION STAYING
DRY THOUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING OFF TO THE
EAST. MORE ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY
NIGHT, AS A DECAYING LINE OF STORM TO SEVERE STORMS BEGINS TO
WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR MONDAY NIGHT, AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE
MIDWEST, BACK DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY DROP SE ALONG THIS COLD FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE, GRADUALLY LOSING STEAM AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE BEST FORCING. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS COMPLEX COULD
MOVE INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 3-5 AM ON TUESDAY. IN THE EVENT IT'S
ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS STRUCTURE, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER, I HAVE SERIOUS RESERVATIONS ABOUT
THAT BEING THE CASE AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION. THE COMPLEX
QUICKLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE BEST FORCING, AND THE BETTER AXIS OF
INSTABILITY IS REALLY LIMITED. IN THE EVENT THESE VALUES ARE EVEN
LOWER THAN FORECAST, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY NOT EVEN
MATERIALIZE. REGARDLESS IF THAT HAPPENS OR NOT, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING, AND EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE SPC HAS ALSO MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT, AS ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. AS TIME GOES ON, THESE STORMS
WILL GO UPSCALE, BEFORE WORKING INTO OUR REGION AS ANOTHER
ORGANIZED COMPLEX. MUCH LIKE TONIGHT, THE BETTER AXIS OF
INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE TO OUR NW, WITH VALUES QUICKLY DECREASING
ONCE THE SUN SETS. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY VALUES ARE NOT
INSIGNIFICANT, AND THE FORCING SHOULD BE BETTER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, BUT LOW CHANCES
ALSO EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE THE STALLED COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FROM HERE, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
TO THE FORECAST, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WELL. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND, AS THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WORK THE REGION THEN.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
DUE TO A SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WITH THAT
BEING SAID, THERE ARE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO OUR SW, AND
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE SHRA/TSRA IN ANY FM
GROUPS AT THIS TIME.
AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR TCL DUE TO INTERMITTENT
OBSERVATIONS.
NOTE: SPRING SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE TAF FOR KASN IS NOW BEING
ISSUED AND WILL RUN THROUGH 04/29 18Z.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY,
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM IN MINRH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 50% THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MINRH VALUES WILL DROP AGAIN ON THURSDAY BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT, BEFORE INCREASING ONCE MORE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THANKFULLY, ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL, BEFORE DRYING OUT INTO THE WEEKEND.
EVEN WITH ONGOING RAIN CHANCES, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND CRITICALLY
DRY FUELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 56 83 58 81 / 0 0 50 60
ANNISTON 59 82 60 83 / 0 0 40 50
BIRMINGHAM 62 84 65 83 / 10 10 50 60
TUSCALOOSA 61 87 65 85 / 10 20 50 50
CALERA 61 86 64 86 / 10 10 40 50
AUBURN 62 81 61 83 / 0 0 10 20
MONTGOMERY 62 87 64 87 / 0 10 10 30
TROY 61 86 62 87 / 0 0 10 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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