650
FXUS64 KBMX 151112
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
612 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE THAT SOME COMMUNITIES ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SEE THEIR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN, ANY
ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN COVERAGE AS FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF
TRANSIENT RIDGING AND ZONAL FLOW WITH SUBTLE IMPULSES WITHIN.
THIS SETUP WILL YIELD CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER WITH WARM DAYS AND
COOL, THEN MILD, NIGHTS. BEYOND THAT, A PATTERN SHIFT SHOULD
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WEEKEND:
SATURDAY'S IMPULSE ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT A PLUME OF MOISTURE
IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER, RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED GIVEN A DEEP AND RELATIVELY DRY
LAYER BELOW.
ON SUNDAY, GUIDANCE SHOWS A PWAT (MOISTURE) DEFICIT AXIS
PERSISTING OVER PART OF ALABAMA AS PLUMES OF HIGHER PWATS TAKE
SHAPE TO OUR WEST AND EAST, ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA, RESPECTIVELY. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
THE AXIS OVER GEORGIA ACTIVATING WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A VERY ILL-DEFINED
IMPULSE MOVES BY. ITS PROXIMITY MAY RESULT IN SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY CLIPPING PARTS OF EAST ALABAMA, SO A LOW (20%) CHANCE HAS
BEEN ADDED.
NEXT WEEK:
WHILE THE PRIMARY PATH OF TROUGHS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH, THEIR
PERSISTENCE IS SHOWN TO DISPLACE AND LESSEN THE EFFECTS OF A
NEARBY RIDGE. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION,
PRIMARILY MID TO LATE WEEK, AND ESPECIALLY IF THE SURFACE FRONT
IS ABLE TO REACH OUR AREA.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
REGIONAL HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED AT AUO DUE TO MISSING OBSERVATIONS.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
FOR FRIDAY, MINRH WILL AGAIN REACH AN UPPER 20 TO LOWER
30 PERCENT RANGE THOUGH WINDS WON'T BE AS GUSTY AS THURSDAY,
AVERAGING NEAR 5 MPH FROM A SOUTHERLY HEADING. NO LOW RH CONCERNS
ARE NOTED THIS WEEKEND OR NEXT WEEK AS DEW POINTS RISE ON A
CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. FAIR WEATHER/RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ALABAMA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING OPPORTUNITIES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 81 51 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 80 54 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 82 58 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 83 58 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 83 56 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 80 57 85 65 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 82 55 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 82 54 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...89
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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