160
FXUS64 KBMX 171108
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
608 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
- HEAT: MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST
BETWEEN 105 TO 113 DEGREES. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR MONDAY.
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS: PORTIONS OF THE REGION ARE UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST TODAY, AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING MAINTAINS A FIRM GRASP ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR TODAY, AS HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL CLIMB ABOVE 110 DEGREES FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THANKFULLY, BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS MAY
DROP A DEGREE OR TWO INTO TUESDAY, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
STARTS TO SHIFT WEST. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO
FALL, DROPPING THE REGION BACK INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ONCE THE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE WEST AND REESTABLISHES ITSELF, THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE REGION TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THURSDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SKIRT THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR BETTER
RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
THE TROUGH TO DROP EVEN FARTHER SOUTH, WHICH SHOULD DROP OUR
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES, ESPECIALLY NORTH. GIVEN THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER, THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID-90S,
THERE'S MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN US NO LONGER NEEDING HEATING PRODUCTS
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH BECOMES THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
IN THE REGION.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (>95% CHANCE) OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP (20-30% COVERAGE) WITH DAYTIME
HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PROB30 MENTIONS ARE INCLUDED FOR
TSRA AT ALL SITES EXCEPT AUO. SIMILAR PROB30 MENTIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS DUE TO A NEARBY
SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 8 KTS, WITH
HIGHER ERRATIC GUSTS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, WITH MINRH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
35 TO 45 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW OVER
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, BUT MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE IF RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS PERSIST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 100 75 95 69 / 40 40 0 0
ANNISTON 97 74 93 69 / 30 30 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 98 76 94 72 / 30 30 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 100 77 98 73 / 30 30 10 0
CALERA 98 76 95 72 / 30 30 10 0
AUBURN 94 76 93 73 / 20 20 10 0
MONTGOMERY 100 77 100 74 / 30 20 20 0
TROY 98 76 97 73 / 40 20 20 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-
ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-
SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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