033
FXUS64 KBMX 171119
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
619 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MOVE NORTHEAST. A MID LEVEL JET AROUND THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW PREVAILING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE HIGHER WINDS WITH THE JET, PLENTY OF
WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BE ADVECTED, WITH PW VALUES MAX
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A MODERATE CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT. STRONG
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT
IN ANY OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY THAT CAN TRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MORE OF THE SAME WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.
24
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, AND TRAILING A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE IN THE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY, WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW
BY THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR HIGH RAIN
RATES, AND WITH THE FLOW PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY, A LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT MAY BE HIGHER ON THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
TO SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BEFORE STALLING
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE, WITH
HIGHER PW VALUES FROM THE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR AND LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR MUCH CONVECTION.
BY SATURDAY, THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. SCATTERED
DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL PREVAIL EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH LIGHT WIND PROFILE AND PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH
ANY ACTIVITY EACH DAY.
24
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (IFR) ARE ABUNDANT OUT THERE THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 15 TO 16Z. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTIES
REMAIN ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF STORMS AND TIMING, SO LEFT A PROB30
IN FOR NOW AND WILL ADJUST WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES. MORE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND HAS BEEN ADDED AT MGM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
16
FIRE WEATHER
A DISTURBED PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS OVERHEAD, MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN OVER
50% DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 87 69 88 70 / 80 40 60 20
ANNISTON 86 71 88 71 / 70 30 60 20
BIRMINGHAM 86 71 88 73 / 80 30 60 20
TUSCALOOSA 86 73 89 73 / 80 30 50 20
CALERA 86 72 88 72 / 80 30 60 20
AUBURN 86 71 88 72 / 60 20 50 10
MONTGOMERY 89 72 90 72 / 70 20 60 10
TROY 88 71 90 71 / 70 10 60 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...16
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