698
FXUS64 KBMX 101730
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1130 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1042 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
- THERE IS A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT AND WILL BECOME BELOW AVERAGE TO START THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
AT THIS WRITING, THE FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED BETWEEN A DEEP
CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND MUCH OF FLORIDA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION WHILE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SOUTHWEST INTO THE
ARKLATEX REGION WHILE A SECONDARY WEAKER SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH THE RAIN WILL END
AREAWIDE BY LATE EVENING. EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT AS NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER AND DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT FROM THE MID 30S FAR
NORTH TO THE LOW 40S SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AREAWIDE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. THE DEEP TROUGHING WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY WHILE A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALOFT OVER THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY A MORE ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES EAST OUT
OF NORTHERN MEXICO TO OVER SOUTH TEXAS TOWARD THE AREA WEDNESDAY
WHILE ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE MIDWEST TO
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION BY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEK.
05
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EET/MGM/AUO THROUGH MIDDAY,
WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AT TCL/BHM BEFORE NOON. EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN A
RETURN TO AREAWIDE VFR EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM 10-15 KTS ON AVERAGE THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
05
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING AREAWIDE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND LOOKS TO PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY FROM 10-20 MPH. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, RESULTING IN AFTERNOON RH VALUES
DIPPING INTO THE MID 30 TO LOW 40 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THEN DROPPING INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 68 35 47 23 / 100 10 0 0
ANNISTON 70 36 48 25 / 90 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 68 37 47 27 / 100 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 68 37 51 27 / 100 0 0 0
CALERA 70 37 51 27 / 100 10 0 0
AUBURN 72 42 52 29 / 90 30 0 0
MONTGOMERY 75 40 53 27 / 90 20 0 0
TROY 76 42 54 28 / 90 30 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-
CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-
LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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