892
FXUS64 KBMX 171930
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
230 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
- PERSISTENT HEAT: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THIS
WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING AS HIGH AS THE MIDDLE
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WITH ANY
EXTENDED OR STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
- RAIN CHANCES: LOW END RAIN CHANCES RETURN STARTING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM OHIO TO TEXAS AND
CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. BY FRIDAY, THE RIDGE SHOULD
SHIFT A LITTLE BIT FURTHER TO EXTEND FROM ILLINOIS TO MEXICO AND
BE CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS. THIS SHIFT WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A BIT OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM
THE MAIN NORTHERN UPPER FLOW AND BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER FLORIDA.
THE LOW SHOULD SLOWLY NUDGE WESTWARD OVER THE SHORT TERM AND THEN
HELP TO PUSH AND DEGRADE THE RIDGE. THIS WILL TRANSITION OUR WEATHER
PATTERN AND FINALLY YIELD A RETURN TO SOME, AT LEAST LOW, RAIN
CHANCES. WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE DAY OF RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WITH
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH HOT TEMPERATURES.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO US, LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSISTED BY DAYTIME HEATING. INITIALLY, THIS
WEEKEND, OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE
LOW. FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, GUIDANCE BRINGS THE UPPER LOW FURTHER
WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL BEGIN TO ALLOW
FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE TO FILTER INTO THE STATE. LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR BUT WITH
STILL ONLY MEAGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR A LUCKY FEW. ON TUESDAY,
GUIDANCE WEAKENS/DETERIORATES THE LOW. DIURNAL POP CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK AND THE END OF OUR FORECAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY. UNFORTUNATELY, OVERALL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY MINIMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FORECASTED. SO, OVER THE NEXT WEEK, NO DROUGHT BUSTING RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED OVER THE NEXT WEEK, THE
WARMEST DAY WILL BE ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT WITH
HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AS 100-104 AT TIMES. I AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA JUST YET. IF
THE GUIDANCE TREND CONTINUES, ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
08
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA AROUND A MID ATLANTIC TO
DEEP SOUTH SURFACE RIDGE. NO CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH 5-10
KT WINDS WITH MIXING AND FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
TAPER DOWN AFTER SUNSET TO LIGHT/VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.
08
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH
COMPOUNDING EFFECTS FROM INTENSIFYING DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY
ARISE. DAILY MINRH THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 30 TO 40%. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE UNLIKELY
THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT LOW CHANCES WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND IN THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FOR ALL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 97 72 97 / 0 20 20 10
ANNISTON 69 95 71 96 / 0 20 20 20
BIRMINGHAM 72 97 74 97 / 0 20 20 10
TUSCALOOSA 70 100 73 101 / 0 20 20 10
CALERA 69 97 72 98 / 0 20 20 20
AUBURN 68 95 72 95 / 0 20 20 30
MONTGOMERY 68 95 72 97 / 0 20 20 30
TROY 66 95 70 96 / 0 10 10 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page