175
FXUS64 KBMX 182315
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
515 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 510 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS GENEROUS GULF MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. HOWEVER, WITH S-SW WINDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE WARM AND A TAD MUGGY FOR MID FEB. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT TONIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME ON THU AS WEAK UPPER BLIPS/
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THROUGH THE UPPER SW FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS PRESENT ACROSS MN TODAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWIRLING
SEWD AROUND LAKE MICHIGAN THEN BACK SWD ACROSS IL/IN AND SWWD TOWARD
TX. THE EXTENDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TX SHOULD STALL OUT LATER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING ON THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES SHOULD KICK IT BACK MOVING TOWARD AL DURING THE DAY THU.
THE LOW SHOULD MOVE ENE OUT OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THU TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL THEN DRAG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER TX TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS C AL THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW DOWN/STALL ACROSS C
AL FRI INTO SAT BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A FEW
TSTORMS MAY OCCUR FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BE
USHERED INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST FOR
SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT.
08
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 954 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT,
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF LOWER CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND LOW
CHANCES (15-20%) FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
LOOK FOR MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES (60-70%). THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL AL FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AND PUSHES
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREAS ON SUNDAY. THIS
SETS UP FOR A RAINY WEEKEND FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AL. WE'LL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY, BUT
THE OVERALL DYNAMICS AREN'T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT.
AFTER THE SYSTEM EXITS OUR AREA SUNDAY, COOLER AND DRIER AIR BUILDS
IN ACROSS CENTRAL AL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE RANGES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. MVFR
CONDITIONS RETURN OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY AFTER 07Z. IFR CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY AROUND 12Z THROUGH ROUGHLY 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY
MID DAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS LIKELY AT TIMES. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER, ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE REGION, MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY, INCREASING
TO MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
STALLS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 58 78 60 76 / 20 20 80 30
ANNISTON 59 78 61 75 / 20 20 80 40
BIRMINGHAM 61 78 62 76 / 20 20 80 30
TUSCALOOSA 59 79 61 77 / 20 20 80 30
CALERA 59 79 61 77 / 20 20 80 40
AUBURN 61 79 65 77 / 20 20 80 60
MONTGOMERY 61 81 66 80 / 20 20 80 60
TROY 61 81 65 80 / 20 20 80 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08/25/OWEN
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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