764
FXUS64 KBMX 191735
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
- HEAVY RAINFALL: A WET PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- HEAT: HEAT INDEX READING WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES BEGINNING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHILE THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH
HALF OF THE REGION, THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING HAS BEEN ALONG A
BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. ACTIVITY PICKED UP THIS MORNING AND
REALLY HAS NOT LET UP. FLOODING HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY CATCH THE BOUNDARY AND BECOME STALLED ALONG THE GULF
COAST REGION THIS WEEKEND, SO RAIN CHANCES HAVE TRENDED UPWARD
FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTH. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF NEEDING TO
CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY, BUT IF IT IS NEEDED IT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE REDUCED TO JUST THE FAR SOUTH.
A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SETS UP NEXT WEEK, WITH
ELONGATED RIDGING OVER MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS, WHILE A
SERIES OF LONGWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGIONS. CONSEQUENTLY, RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FINER DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY AS WELL GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC ORIENTATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE NOT APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA, WE
WILL APPROACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR HEAT INDEX READINGS. DRINK
PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND USE CAUTION IF YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME, ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
RAIN HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. A
NORTHWARD PUSH IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 23Z AND 00Z, THOUGH LIMITED
COVERAGE CONFIDENCE WARRANTS ONLY VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OR VARIABLE THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT.
NOTE: METARS FROM AUO ARE COMING THROUGH BUT OBSERVATIONS ARE
MISSING DATA. THEREFORE, AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THIS
SET.
16
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AS WE WILL REMAIN IN A WET PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP MINRH
VALUES ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 66 86 69 86 / 10 40 20 80
ANNISTON 68 85 70 86 / 30 50 20 80
BIRMINGHAM 70 85 70 86 / 30 60 30 80
TUSCALOOSA 72 84 71 87 / 50 90 30 80
CALERA 70 86 70 88 / 50 80 30 80
AUBURN 72 84 70 85 / 40 70 20 80
MONTGOMERY 72 83 71 86 / 40 90 40 80
TROY 71 84 70 86 / 30 90 40 80
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHAMBERS-CHILTON-COOSA-
DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TALLAPOOSA.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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