053
FXUS64 KBMX 131616
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1116 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1111 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
- FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO RECENT
DRYNESS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, AND INCREASED WINDS AT
TIMES. OUTDOOR BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THIS WEEK
WITH NO RAIN CHANCES, CAUSING DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO WORSEN.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FROM THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT, WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE. LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW, THERE'S A RARE
SIGHTING OF RADAR ECHOES JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. THESE ECHOES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES RIDING UP
AND OVER THE 590 DECAMETER RIDGE CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE KBMX 12Z SOUNDING MEASURED A MEASLY 0.55
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR MEASURED
ALOFT TO 700MB. IN OTHER WORDS, THERE'S LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF ANY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ANY RADAR ECHOES
THAT HAPPEN TO MOVE INTO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES TODAY WILL HAVE A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF ACTUALLY REACHING THE SURFACE. MOSTLY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER, WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA. THE SE HALF CLOSER TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR COULD
APPROACH THOSE UPPER 80S WITH CLOUDS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AT TIMES FROM THE SOUTH DUE TO
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1030MB RIDGE DOMINATING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. AS MENTIONED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES, WE'LL
STAY JUST SHY OF RED FLAG CRITERIA IN TERMS OF RH VALUES BUT
HIGHLY ADVISE AGAINST ANY BURNING. DRY GROUND AND FUEL CONDITIONS
WOULD FAVOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH CAPABLE OF SPREADING QUICKLY WITH
FORECAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWING A FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60 ONCE AGAIN, WE'LL START TO SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCH CLOSER
TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK BY THE END OF THE WEEK. RECORDS WILL
CERTAINLY BE IN JEOPARDY, WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR REFERENCE. THE BEST CHANCE OF HITTING 90 DEGREES WILL BE
ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS UNFORTUNATELY TRENDING
DRIER AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY DUE TO LACK
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING FAR REMOVED
TO OUR NORTH. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH DROUGHT
CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO WORSEN.
56/GDG
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 590 DECAMETER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST THROUGH THURSDAY, GENERALLY
STEERING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND RESULTING IN NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.
AT LOW-LEVELS A BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF EASTERLY FLOW TRAJECTORIES OVER
THE EASTERN GULF, THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MOISTURE, AND STRONG
DOWNWARD MIXING OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AIR MASS,
ALONG WITH DRY GROUND CONDITIONS. WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS TODAY.
THESE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW MAY KNOCK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES, BUT THEY WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. RH
VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY WHILE WINDS STILL REMAIN A
BIT ELEVATED. THESE WILL REMAIN SHY OF RED FLAG THRESHOLDS, BUT
FIRE DANGER REMAINS ELEVATED NONETHELESS. LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO RECORDS. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS.
A SHORTWAVE TEMPORARILY WEAKENS THE RIDGE A BIT ON THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OFF TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST WILL
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE DRY AIR MASS, WITH JUST LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALSO BUILDS BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS A DEEPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEDIUM
PROBABILITIES OF HIGHS REACHING 90F ARE INDICATED BY THE NBM FOR
FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE READINGS OF THE SEASON
FOR MANY AREAS. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF HIGHS REACHING 90
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY. THE WESTERN TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLE
CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
BUT SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH THAT
WILL DICTATE RAIN COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
STILL UNIMPRESSIVE WITH THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS, HOWEVER,
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION BEHIND
THE FRONT. FIRE CONCERNS MAY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHICH LOOKS TO
RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, GETTING
VERY CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA IN A FEW LOCATIONS. MINRHS ARE NOW
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR, WITH MOSTLY MID 30S ELSEWHERE. 20FT WINDS
ARE ALSO FORECAST TO GUST BETWEEN 15 AND 20MPH AT TIMES. RH
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DOWN TO
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AROUND 25%, WHILE 20FT WINDS WILL GUST TO
10-15 MPH. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY
INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN A LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 13:
KEET: 87/2017
KTCL: 87/1972
KMGM: 88/1972
APRIL 14:
KBHM: 89/1981
KEET: 85/2017
KANB: 89/1981
KTCL: 88/2003
KMGM: 89/1972
APRIL 15:
KBHM: 88/1936
KEET: 85/2012
KANB: 89/1972
KTCL: 88/1972
KMGM: 91/1972
APRIL 16:
KBHM: 89/1977
KEET: 84/2013
KTCL: 90/1955
KMGM: 90/1925
APRIL 17:
KBHM: 90/1955
KEET: 86/2013
KTCL: 92/1955
KMGM: 90/1955
APRIL 18:
KBHM: 91/2006
KEET: 90/2006
KANB: 90/1955
KMGM: 91/2006
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 84 54 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 84 57 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 84 60 87 60 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 84 58 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 85 57 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 84 57 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 86 55 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 85 55 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...56/GDG
AVIATION...56/GDG
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