122
FXUS64 KBMX 101127
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
627 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL.
- THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH (40-70%) CHANCE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THIS EVENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH. THE PREVIOUS BOUNDARY THAT WAS TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST HAS FIZZLED OUT. WITH AMPLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING, PATCHY DENSE
FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT TO DEVELOP. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA. THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR
TRAVEL IMPACTS IS FROM AROUND 3AM TO 9AM, UNTIL WE GET ENOUGH
MIXING.
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE
AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES. GUIDANCE IS LOOKING LESS ROBUST WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM
IN REGARDS TO INSTABILITY AND OVERALL AMOUNTS OF QPF. WHILE THERE
IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
FRONT, CONFIDENCE ON INTENSITY HAS WANED AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
WAFFLING. CONVECTION MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME HOLDING ITS
INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY FAR TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. WHILE NOT ZERO, THREATS
INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE LATEST DATA DOES SHOW
THE FRONT A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
MONDAY, SO CHANCES ARE LOOKING HIGHER FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. CONDITIONS CLEAR FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH RIDGING FOR TUESDAY, A
REINFORCING BOUNDARY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN MORE RIDGING AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
08
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA
HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AL.
MOST SITES ARE LIFR AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN LIFR TO MAYBE IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 15Z BEFORE INCREASING TO MVFR. BY 18Z, WE
SHOULD HAVE VFR VIS AND CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT LEADING TO INCREASED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FOR
WEST ALABAMA. THEREFORE, I'VE INCLUDED PROB30 FOR TSRA AT TCL.
FOR THE OTHER SITES, THE MOIST AIR MASS FROM TODAY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE, SO GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG
DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY AFTER 06-09Z, BUT OTHER GUIDANCE PUSHES THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION, LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT.
FOR NOW, I'VE TRENDED VIS DOWN TO 4SM, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE
BASED ON HOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVOLVES THROUGH THE DAY.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HELP KEEP MIN RH
VALUES GENERALLY ABOVE 50%. DRIER AIR RETURNS LATE MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH MIN RH VALUES FALLING TO 30-40% BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 83 57 78 50 / 10 20 30 0
ANNISTON 82 58 78 52 / 10 20 30 10
BIRMINGHAM 84 62 79 54 / 10 20 30 0
TUSCALOOSA 84 62 80 54 / 10 40 30 10
CALERA 85 61 81 54 / 10 20 30 10
AUBURN 82 63 81 59 / 20 10 50 20
MONTGOMERY 82 62 81 57 / 20 20 50 20
TROY 82 62 82 58 / 20 20 60 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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