010
FXUS64 KBMX 271809
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1209 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1208 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
- VERY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
THE COLD CONTINUES TONIGHT ALBEIT A TOUCH "WARMER". STILL LOOK
FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. FOR WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY AND
SHOULD EXIT FRIDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN TROUGH WILL WORK
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AS THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT SHOULD
EXIT STAGE RIGHT BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR WORKS IN. WHERE THE WINTRY
CHANCES COME INTO PLAY THIS CYCLE WILL BE ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT, AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE GROUP TAKES THE LOW INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE, WITH
THE OTHER GROUP INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA, BEFORE TUNING BACK
TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST. THIS DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES KEEP THE CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
NOT MENTION WINTRY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THIS IS
ONLY A 100 TO 150 MILE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS, SO THE
PATTERNS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE BUT CREATES A VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIO. I
DID ADD IN A 10% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THIS
WOULD BE ALL SNOW IF IT WERE TO OCCUR. DESPITE THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COLD BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
16
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL DRAMATICALLY DROP THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS RANGING BETWEEN 20-40%. THE LOWEST
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST. RH LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
BE A TOUCH BETTER WITH READINGS IN THE 30-40% RANGE. EVEN WITH
THIS DRYING TREND, MOST FUELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT DAMP FROM RECENT
RAINFALL, SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 21 46 19 47 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 23 46 22 48 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 24 46 24 47 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 25 48 24 50 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 24 48 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 27 48 27 49 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 27 49 25 51 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 26 50 24 52 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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