342
FXUS64 KBMX 081139
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
639 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
- HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SATURATED SOILS MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING TODAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
REACHING THE LOW-90S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
TODAY, AS THE REGION REMAINS DISTURBED FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. ONCE IT ARRIVES THERE, THIS UPPER-LOW IS
STILL EXPECTED TO OPEN UP A BIT MORE, PROGRESSING INTO A TROUGH
THAT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WHILE THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST, THIS WILL KEEP
THE REGION MIXED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO STAY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
FROM HERE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD TO OUR WEST
LATE WEDNESDAY, AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS RIDGING WILL AID IN
SHUTTING OFF THE MORE ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES, INSTEAD FAVORING
MORE SCATTERED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INTO THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS HIGH THAT AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS
WELL, WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW-90S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
IFR CEILINGS HAVE PRIMARILY REMAINED CONFINED TO BHM/EET THIS
MORNING WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE REMAINING SITES.
IT'S POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE INTERMITTENT REDUCTIONS IN FLIGHT
CRITERIA AT THOSE OTHER SITES, BUT CURRENT TRENDS DO NOT SUGGEST
THAT ANY REDUCTION WOULD BE PERSISTENT. A SCATTERING OF RA AND
OCCASIONAL TSRA IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECISE TIMING AT EACH TAF SITE. IN FACT,
THERE ARE ALREADY SOME SHOWERS OUT THERE THIS MORNING. THIS
PASSING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERMITTENT FLIGHT
IMPACTS/REDUCED FLIGHT CRITERIA. IFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BECAUSE OF THAT, MINRH VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 50% OR HIGHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN DAILY RAIN
CHANCES AND HIGH MINRH VALUES, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN
LITTLE TO NONE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 82 69 87 69 / 80 40 40 10
ANNISTON 82 70 86 69 / 70 40 50 10
BIRMINGHAM 84 70 88 71 / 60 20 30 0
TUSCALOOSA 85 72 90 72 / 40 10 10 0
CALERA 87 70 90 70 / 40 20 30 0
AUBURN 86 71 85 69 / 20 20 50 10
MONTGOMERY 88 73 88 70 / 10 10 20 10
TROY 90 73 88 70 / 10 10 30 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-TALLADEGA.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
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