806
FXUS64 KBMX 251712
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1212 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR A COUPLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM
THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING. THREATS INCLUDE A BRIEF TORNADO AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK, AND MAY POSE
ADDITIONAL RISKS FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING OR A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
WE ALL WANTED TO RACK UP SOME RAIN TO PUT A DENT IN THE DROUGHT
BEFORE SUMMERTIME AND, WELL, MOTHER NATURE IS DELIVERING! A
PATTERN OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING/LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN A HOLDING PATTERN, ESSENTIALLY BLOCKED BY THE
CONFIGURATION OF SURROUNDING WEATHER SYSTEMS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
GULF COAST REGION IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR LIFT AND AN INFLUX
OF TROPICAL-LIKE VERTICAL MOISTURE CONTENT. THE RESULT WILL BE
MORE OF THE SAME: DAILY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF PREVIOUS DAYS'
RAINFALL AND FORTHCOMING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, THERE IS A RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
THE RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS NIL TO LOW, DUE TO
HINDRANCE FROM CLOUDINESS/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND WEAK LAPSE
RATES; HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED INSTANCE OF SUCH
ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR, FAVORING THE DAYTIME HOURS, AS WEAK FLOW
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA.
HOW LONG WILL THIS SOGGY WEATHER CONTINUE? IT MAY EASE STARTING
EARLY NEXT WEEK (SUNDAY ONWARD). ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
DECREASING INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY TROUGH AS A RIDGE OVER THE
WEST ATLANTIC MOVES AND ALLOWS ITS PASSAGE. THIS SHOULD CAUSE US
TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF AN EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S., DECREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
A NEARBY MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIFT AND A
MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS. IN TURN, THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND LOW CLOUDS IMPACTING CENTRAL ALABAMA
TERMINALS. SUB VFR CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
GENERALLY MFVR THIS AFTERNOON BUT AS LOW AS IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, THEN MORE IN THE WAY OF IFR WITH POTENTIAL LIFR
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS (ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG). MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY, WITH A MVFR-IFR MIX THROUGH THE DAY.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK. AS A RESULT, THERE
ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 68 78 64 82 / 80 80 50 90
ANNISTON 69 77 66 82 / 70 80 50 80
BIRMINGHAM 69 78 67 83 / 80 80 40 80
TUSCALOOSA 70 78 68 83 / 70 80 40 90
CALERA 68 77 67 84 / 70 90 40 80
AUBURN 69 76 68 82 / 70 90 40 70
MONTGOMERY 70 78 68 83 / 70 90 40 80
TROY 71 77 67 84 / 70 80 40 80
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-
DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-HALE-JEFFERSON-LOWNDES-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: GREENE-PICKENS-SUMTER.
DISCUSSION...89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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