450
FXUS64 KBMX 040502
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1202 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2020
UPDATE
FOR 06Z AVIATION.
SHORT TERM
/UPDATED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2020/
FEATURES:
WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DEEP-
LAYER RIDGING REMAINS POSITIONED OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO. LOW-LEVEL
RIDGING WAS PRESENT OVER THE BAHAMAS AND TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS IN ADDITION TO OVER WEST TEXAS AND MUCH OF MEXICO.
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN WARM AND QUITE HUMID IN CONTRAST TO SOME
DRIER AIR THAT HAS ADVECTED IN ALOFT GENERALLY ABOVE 700 MB TODAY.
FORECAST:
TODAY.
WEAK LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS CREATING OROGRAPHIC LIFT AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. AS A RESULT,
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO BE GREATEST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. 12Z SOUNDING DATA ALONG WITH SOME
HIGH-RES MODEL FIELDS INDICATE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR WET
MICROBURSTS IF UPDRAFTS CAN BECOME VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION ALOFT. THE DRY AIR ALOFT IS HELPING TO KEEP CONVECTION
ISOLATED AND DISCOURAGING DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS TODAY WITH
DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS POSSIBLE FROM THAT ACTIVITY IF THEY CAN
DEVELOP. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90 NORTH AND NORTHEAST
TO THE LOW 90S WEST AND SOUTH.
TONIGHT.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH
FAIR SKIES AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME BRIEF LOCALIZED
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT HAVE HAD RECENT HEAVY RAINS BUT THIS
LOOKS TO BE SPOTTY TO ISOLATED AT BEST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 90 NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTH AND CENTRAL.
INDEPENDENCE DAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FROM MID TO LATE MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO AGAIN FORM BY LATE MORNING AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WHILE MORE ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90
NORTH AND NORTHEAST TO THE LOW 90S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
05
LONG TERM
/UPDATED AT 253 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2020/
REALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS GUIDANCE HASN'T SHIFTED FROM THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THIS
TIME. DIURNALLY-DRIVEN RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED, WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR A FEW
DAYS NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGED THURSDAY AFTERNOON POPS UP JUST
ENOUGH TO CONSIDER IT IN THE 'LIKELY' POP CATEGORY. OTHERWISE,
SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH.
40/SIZEMORE
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
/UPDATED AT 311 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2020/
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PERSISTS ACROSS THE GULF STATES WITH VERY LITTLE
SYNOPTIC FLOW TO STEER IT OUT OF THE AREA. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE WARM/MOIST AIR MASS,EVEN THIS WEAK FORCING WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HIGHER COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. TYPICALLY WE SEE 40-50% COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE, WITH THE ADDED FORCING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, IT'S
REASONABLE TO EXPECT 60-70% COVERAGE AT THE LEAST (MAYBE MORE). THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY EACH DAY AS LOCATIONS THAT
SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S BEFORE THE STORMS DEVELOP. IN LOCATIONS THAT MISS OUT ON THE
PRECIP, TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90, WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GIVEN WE'RE EXPECTING FAIRLY HIGH
COVERAGE OF PRECIP, IT'S FAIR TO SAY MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE AFTERNOON WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE LOW 70S EACH NIGHT. THIS SETUP WILL PERSIST SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS BEGIN TO HINT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL GET LIFTED EASTWARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN
AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGING ALSO
REMAINS AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE TX AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS COULD
SIGNAL A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THIS IS STILL PRETTY
FAR IN THE EXTENDED MODEL RANGE, SO I'LL ONLY TREND POPS DOWN TO 50%
ON THURSDAY FOR NOW.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY ENDED FOR THE TERMINALS. WITH ALL OF THE
CONVECTION AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR PRE-DAWN HOURS. WE STILL HAVE LOTS OF LINGERING MID/UPPER
CLOUDINESS AROUND AND COULD SEE SOME STRATUS IN THE SOUTH NEAR TOI
TOWARD SUNRISE. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.
ALSO, WE HAVE A LINGERING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE AT THE LEAST SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA, THE SOUTHERN AREAS
CLOSER TO MGM/TOI SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AND COULD LAST
FURTHER INTO SATURDAY EVENING THERE.
08
FIRE WEATHER
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AND
TOMORROW ACROSS THE AREA. THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MIN RHS WILL BE IN THE 50-60% RANGE
THROUGH SUNDAY, RISING TO 60-80% FOR NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 71 91 70 90 70 / 20 40 20 60 30
ANNISTON 72 90 70 90 70 / 20 40 20 60 30
BIRMINGHAM 74 91 72 91 72 / 20 40 30 70 30
TUSCALOOSA 73 92 72 90 72 / 40 50 30 70 30
CALERA 72 89 70 90 71 / 20 50 30 70 30
AUBURN 71 90 70 88 70 / 20 40 30 70 40
MONTGOMERY 72 91 72 88 72 / 20 50 30 80 40
TROY 71 92 71 88 72 / 20 60 30 80 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/
NONE.
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