560
FXUS64 KBMX 151101
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
601 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
- PERSISTENT HEAT: AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT
INDICES FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO ABOVE 100 DEGREES. TAKE EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS WITH ANY EXTENDED AFTERNOON OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS THE MAIN STORY FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE. THIS
PATTERN WILL EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY,
KEEPING AFTERNOON POPS UNDER 10%. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE LOW-TO-UPPER 90S
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HOT, LOWER DEW POINTS WITHIN THIS DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP
HEAT INDICES IN THE 101-104 RANGE, REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.
BY THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AS
AN UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THIS FEATURE, ANY
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE GULF SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND BRING
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS. THEREFORE, WE'LL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH WINDS INCREASING TODAY TO 7-8KTS OUT OF THE EAST
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
AMD NOT SKED IS APPENDED AT AUO DUE TO MISSING OBSERVATIONS.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BETWEEN 35-45% THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, WITH VERY LIMITED RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. WHILE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW FOR NOW, INCREASING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PUSH THESE CONCERNS UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK IF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOES NOT FALL BY THEN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 96 71 95 67 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 94 71 92 66 / 10 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 96 73 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 99 75 97 69 / 10 0 0 0
CALERA 96 73 94 69 / 10 0 0 0
AUBURN 93 72 90 66 / 10 10 0 0
MONTGOMERY 96 74 93 66 / 10 10 0 0
TROY 95 72 92 64 / 10 10 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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