580
FXUS64 KBMX 281741
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1241 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
- PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING OR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
AN ALREADY DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE AND SUSTAINED SOUTH FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR THE REGION TO REMAIN DISTURBED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH WIDESPREAD DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED BEGINNING ON FRIDAY, AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN
TO OUR EAST, ALLOWING FOR A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO WORK
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
DURING THE SAME TIME, A DEEP TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO FORM OVER NEW ENGLAND, SLOWLY WORKING DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO
THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK,
ELONGATED COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
EVENTUALLY WORKING THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME AROUND TUESDAY.
WHILE NO MAJOR SWING IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE, IT SHOULD SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF WHEREVER THE COLD FRONT ENDS
UP SETTLING.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY CONTINUING TO SCATTER OUT, WITH MOST TERMINALS
CLIMBING BACK INTO LOW-END VFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER, TSRA IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AREA-WIDE, WITH ALL
TERMINALS CARRYING IT THROUGH 29/00Z. GIVEN THE MOIST COLUMN OF
AIR, REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT, WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PAST 29/06Z.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO HIGH
RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OR
FOG EACH MORNING. THEREFORE, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 67 81 65 82 / 30 80 80 90
ANNISTON 68 81 66 81 / 30 90 80 90
BIRMINGHAM 69 83 67 83 / 30 80 70 80
TUSCALOOSA 70 84 68 84 / 30 70 50 70
CALERA 68 84 67 84 / 30 80 70 80
AUBURN 69 82 68 82 / 40 80 70 80
MONTGOMERY 69 84 68 84 / 30 70 60 70
TROY 68 84 68 84 / 20 70 60 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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