403
FXUS64 KBMX 231930
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
230 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
- HEAVY RAIN: A STALLED COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH GULF MOISTURE
WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- HEAT: INTENSE HEAT RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FROM MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH
HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 105.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
GUIDANCE AND NHC CONTINUE TO KEEP TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MOVING
WESTWARD AWAY FROM ALABAMA TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO MEANDER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY, TAPPING INTO DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD, HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN SUSTAINS AN ONGOING RISK FOR HIGH
RAIN RATES AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
AND INTO SATURDAY, WITH TRAINING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS REMAINING A
PRIMARY CONCERN WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 2 INCHES.
FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA, THIS STALLED BOUNDARY MAINTAINS AN
UNSETTLED, WET REGIME THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, WITH A FLOOD WATCH
PERSISTING FOR FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WHILE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT ARRIVES NEXT WEEK. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SIGNIFICANTLY HOTTER,
INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK BY
MONDAY AND LIKELY PERSISTING INTO MID-WEEK.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNSET. WITH STABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT, THE THUNDER MENTION HAS BEEN REMOVED, AS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED (<20%). WE HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR RAIN
SHOWERS AT BHM, EET, AND TCL FROM 19-22Z, AND ADDED VCSH AT MGM
AND AUO AFTER 21Z. ACTIVITY DECREASES AFTER 03Z. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
NEAR THE FRONT WILL BRING A TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO BHM, EET,
AND TCL. SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL INCREASES AFTER 15Z FRIDAY,
WITH BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
SUPPORTED BY A WARM, HUMID AIR MASS AND PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES,
WITH MINRH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 73 88 72 89 / 60 80 20 70
ANNISTON 74 87 73 88 / 50 70 20 70
BIRMINGHAM 76 89 74 90 / 60 70 20 60
TUSCALOOSA 76 91 75 92 / 50 60 10 30
CALERA 75 93 74 94 / 50 60 20 50
AUBURN 75 90 75 89 / 30 20 10 60
MONTGOMERY 75 94 75 94 / 30 20 10 40
TROY 73 94 74 93 / 20 20 10 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
BLOUNT-CHEROKEE-ETOWAH.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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