467
FXUS64 KBMX 100459
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL.
- THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH (40-70%) CHANCE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THIS EVENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH. THE PREVIOUS BOUNDARY THAT WAS TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST HAS FIZZLED OUT. WITH AMPLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING, PATCHY DENSE
FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT TO DEVELOP. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA. THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR
TRAVEL IMPACTS IS FROM AROUND 3AM TO 9AM, UNTIL WE GET ENOUGH
MIXING.
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE
AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES. GUIDANCE IS LOOKING LESS ROBUST WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM
IN REGARDS TO INSTABILITY AND OVERALL AMOUNTS OF QPF. WHILE THERE
IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
FRONT, CONFIDENCE ON INTENSITY HAS WANED AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
WAFFLING. CONVECTION MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME HOLDING ITS
INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY FAR TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA. WHILE NOT ZERO, THREATS
INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE LATEST DATA DOES SHOW
THE FRONT A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
MONDAY, SO CHANCES ARE LOOKING HIGHER FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. CONDITIONS CLEAR FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH RIDGING FOR TUESDAY, A
REINFORCING BOUNDARY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN MORE RIDGING AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
08
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 744 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING FOR MOST SITES BY 3Z. CIGS
WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER TO LIFR FROM AROUND 6-8Z. THERE IS A
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING DUE WET GROUNDS FROM
RECENT RAINS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF THIS FOG BECOMING
DENSE GOING TO BELOW 1SM AFTER 8Z AND LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE.
LOW CIGS WILL LINGER DURING THE MORNING AND ARE NOT LIKELY TO GO
BACK TO VFR UNTIL AFTER 18Z FOR MOST SITES. THERE ARE LOW RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD, BUT ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME. BETTER CHANCES ARE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONT.
08
FIRE WEATHER
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HELP KEEP MIN RH
VALUES GENERALLY ABOVE 50%. DRIER AIR RETURNS LATE MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH MIN RH VALUES FALLING TO 30-40% BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 55 83 57 78 / 10 10 20 30
ANNISTON 58 82 58 78 / 10 10 20 30
BIRMINGHAM 60 84 62 79 / 10 10 20 30
TUSCALOOSA 61 84 62 80 / 10 10 40 30
CALERA 60 85 61 81 / 10 10 20 30
AUBURN 62 82 63 81 / 20 20 10 50
MONTGOMERY 61 82 62 81 / 20 20 20 50
TROY 62 82 62 82 / 20 20 20 60
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-
ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-
SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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