355   
FXUS64 KBMX 310728  
AFDBMX  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL  
228 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION  
  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
  
UPDATED AT 224 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025  
  
-  FROST DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS  
   MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS WITHIN  
   SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING RIVER BASINS WILL BE MOST PRONE  
   TO FROST DEVELOPMENT. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9  
   AM THIS MORNING, AND ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED  
   FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM SATURDAY MORNING.  
  
-  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL  
   ALABAMA IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY, THANKS TO ANOTHER   
   UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION.   
   VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME, WITH NO   
   IMPROVEMENT TO THE OVERALL LONGER TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS.  
  
  
   
DISCUSSION  
  
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025  
  
CALM, CHILLY, AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PREVAILING   
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE CLOSED LOW NOW LONG   
GONE. WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER   
DECOUPLING, WE'RE SEEING OUR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS SUCH AS GADSDEN AND   
HALEYVILLE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH SOME OTHER VALLEY   
LOCATIONS ALSO OBSERVING SIMILAR CONDITIONS. A FROST ADVISORY   
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 9AM THIS   
MORNING. NOT ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE ADVISORY WILL SEE FROST   
DEVELOPMENT AND THAT WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.   
ANOTHER WRINKLE IN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST THAT WE STARTED TO SEE A   
POSSIBILITY FOR BY THE END OF THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT YESTERDAY IS FOG   
FORMATION. THE AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOSED LOW   
YESTERDAY DID NOT END UP BEING OVERLY DRY IN NATURE WITH DEWPOINTS   
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT THIS HOUR. AS A RESULT,   
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED TO THE DEWPOINT AND SHALLOW FOG   
HAS DEVELOPED AT SOME OBSERVATION SITES. WE'RE ALSO SEEING FOG   
DEVELOPMENT ADJACENT TO AND OVER THE RIVER BASINS AND LARGER LAKES  
DUE TO THE WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES. YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE MOST   
RIVER AND STREAM BASINS SHOWING UP ON THE GOES-19 NIGHT FOG   
PRODUCT AT THIS HOUR. FOG WAS ADDED INTO THE FORECAST AS A RESULT,  
PRIMARILY ALONG THESE BASINS THROUGH 7AM.  
  
A VERY TRANQUIL HALLOWEEN WILL BE ON TAP ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH   
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A COOL   
NORTHWEST WIND BETWEEN 5 AND 10MPH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME CALM   
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN.   
CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THOSE WHO WILL BE TRICK OR   
TREATING THIS EVENING, DROPPING INTO THE 50S BY 7PM AND 40S BY 9PM.   
ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AT THE VERY LEAST FOR THE   
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH   
LOWS DIPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 30S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.   
UPPER 30S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ELSEWHERE.   
  
BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WE'LL SEE ANOTHER 500MB LONGWAVE   
TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS, WITH AXIS MOVING   
TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH BY SATURDAY EVENING. AFTER WAITING THREE DAYS   
FOR BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE, WE'RE FINALLY ZONING IN   
ON A SOLUTION OF WHERE A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK.   
THE 00Z GUIDANCE EARLY THIS MORNING IS ADVERTISING A TRACK ACROSS   
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD   
KEEP RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MORE   
REFINEMENTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED NOW THAT FORECAST   
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING, BUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE   
POPS (20-40%) FOR SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-  
22 AND I-20 CORRIDORS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL ALSO AFFECT   
DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THESE SAME AREAS, WHICH MAY NEED TO BE LOWER THAN   
THE CURRENT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
  
AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES EAST, A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL   
QUICKLY USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO   
MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION   
WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS   
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE CLOUDS ARE ALLOWED TO CLEAR. A   
WARM AND DRY 500MB PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP THROUGH THURSDAY   
OF NEXT WEEK AS A 593 TO 594 DECAMETER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE   
NORTHWESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID   
70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF   
THE FORECAST PERIOD.   
  
56/GDG  
  
  
   
AVIATION  
  
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2025  
  
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEAR  
SKIES OVERNIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS. PATCHY FOG FORMATION  
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SOME OF THE RIVER BASINS, AND WILL MAINLY  
BE SHALLOW IN NATURE. TCL WAS ALREADY OBSERVING SOME OF THIS  
SHALLOW FOG, AND WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG FORMATION NEAR MGM  
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. FOR NOW, MIFG WAS ADDED IN AS A TEMPO TO  
ATTEMPT TO CAPTURE THOSE OBSERVED CONDITIONS AT TCL. OTHERWISE,  
CLEAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT REMAINING TERMINALS. MOSTLY  
CLEAR SKIES WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON IS  
FORECAST WITH NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 7 AND 10 KNOTS,  
BECOMING CALM OR VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.  
  
56/GDG  
  
  
   
FIRE WEATHER  
  
SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES  
AND 20FT WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINRH  
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP THE MOST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO  
THE UPPER 30S, WITH LOW TO MID 40S FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER  
OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO   
EXPAND IN AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH MINRHS DROPPING  
INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 30S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.  
FORTUNATELY, 20FT WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RHS WILL BEGIN TO RISE  
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.   
  
  
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
  
GADSDEN     65  34  64  43 /   0   0   0  20   
ANNISTON    64  37  65  44 /   0   0   0  10   
BIRMINGHAM  65  40  65  45 /   0   0   0  20   
TUSCALOOSA  66  39  66  45 /   0   0   0  20   
CALERA      65  38  67  45 /   0   0   0  10   
AUBURN      63  41  65  46 /   0   0   0  10   
MONTGOMERY  67  39  69  45 /   0   0   0  10   
TROY        65  39  68  45 /   0   0   0  10   
  
  
   
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING   
COUNTIES: BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-  
COOSA-DALLAS-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARENGO-  
MARION-PERRY-PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-  
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.  
  
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING   
COUNTIES: BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-  
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-  
WALKER-WINSTON.  
  
  
  
  
  
DISCUSSION...56/GDG  
AVIATION...56/GDG  
 
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