433
FXUS64 KBMX 081925
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
225 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
- HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST, MAKING LANDFALL FRIDAY EVENING.
- WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 40 TO 50 MPH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS
TO 60 MPH, RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES
AND POWER LINES.
- RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO 5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
- A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 ON SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
NEAR THE GEORGIA STATE LINE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM AT THIS
TIME.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS OVERVIEW:
HURRICANE ISAIAS IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. IT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A CATEGORY
2 HURRICANE TONIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD, BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL FRIDAY EVENING ALONG EITHER THE ALABAMA OR
FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTLINES. AFTER LANDFALL, IT WILL QUICKLY
UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT TURNS NORTHWESTWARD,
OCCLUDES, AND MERGES INTO A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER MISSISSIPPI
ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY WEAKENS, AN EXPANDING
AREA OF STRONG 925-700MB WIND FIELDS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR THIS DISCUSSION, WILL BREAK
THINGS DOWN TEMPORALLY RATHER THAN BY INDIVIDUAL THREATS.
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON:
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY, PROVIDING GOOD WEATHER TO
COMPLETE PREPARATIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL BEGIN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
BEGIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS STRONG EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE
TO HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST.
FRIDAY NIGHT:
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL ALREADY BE PRESENT BY EARLY EVENING, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. THE WORST OF THE WINDS WILL BE MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND
PROBABILITIES APPEAR A BIT UNDERDONE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST, AND ARE NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AN INVERSION/STABLE LAYER WILL
BE IN PLACE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT CLOSER TO THE COAST, BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO STILL INDICATE SIGNIFICANT WINDS CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES, BUT WOULD ALSO EXPECT HIGH WIND GUSTS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS/RIDGE TOPS FURTHER NORTH. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO
50 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60 MPH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED IMPACTS
OF NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES, WIND-RELATED WATCHES
ARE NECESSARY. WITH THE TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL, PICKING A
LOCATION TO SWITCH FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WIND PRODUCTS IS
TRICKY. IN GENERAL I-20 WAS CHOSEN AS THE ROUGH CUTOFF BETWEEN
TROPICAL STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCHES. THIS DIFFERENCE IS REALLY
ONLY RELEVANT TO "WEATHER NERDS"; FOR MOST PEOPLE, ALL YOU NEED
TO KNOW IS IT'S GOING TO BE WINDY WHETHER YOU'RE IN A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH OR HIGH WIND WATCH.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS WEST ALABAMA
AS WELL AS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS AREA OVER WEST ALABAMA
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT CORE OF THE CIRCULATION
BECOMING A COMMAHEAD FEATURE WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AN
ADDITIONAL NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE SETTING UP BY
SATURDAY MORNING, MORE LIKELY IN WESTERN GEORGIA BUT POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING PARTS OF FAR EASTERN ALABAMA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN THESE BANDS, BUT FOR SIMPLICITY'S
SAKE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA GIVEN THE
TROPICAL RAINS EXPECTED AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS.
LOOKING AT THE TORNADO THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
LOOKS PRETTY STABLE OVER OUR AREA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT,
SUGGESTING THIS THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WARM FRONT IF IT REACHES PIKE
AND BARBOUR COUNTIES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, BUT THE THREAT
LARGELY HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE AND WILL BE DISCUSSED
FURTHER BELOW.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT:
GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGHER WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
THE MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, BUT WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY WITH BETTER MIXING AND WIND FIELDS ALOFT
REMAINING ENHANCED. A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION, RESULTING IN AN OVERALL DECREASE IN HEAVIER RAIN, BUT
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE GIVEN AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LOW. A
BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN MAY ALSO LINGER NEAR THE GEORGIA STATE LINE
THOUGH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN GEORGIA.
WE WILL BE WATCHING INSTABILITY TRENDS CLOSELY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65,
WHILE A DEVELOPING COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT SERVES AS THE WESTERN
BOUNDARY OF ANY TORNADO THREAT. IN GENERAL, INSTABILITY WILL BE
INCREASING AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SRH IS DECREASING. HOWEVER,
THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH OF AN OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT DURING THE MORNING, THOUGH
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE MAIN NORTH-SOUTH CONVECTIVE BAND
WILL HAVE MOVED INTO GEORGIA AT THAT POINT. BY AFTERNOON AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE EVENING, WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH, WHICH
COULD STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE RELATIVELY
HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE NEAR THE CHATTAHOOCHEE VALLEY.
SUNDAY ONWARD:
SOME CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LINGERS ON SUNDAY BEFORE
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT. BEYOND THAT, NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY
WITH A RETURN TO YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING BUILDS.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SKIES BECOMING SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 4-8 KTS
TODAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT FROM 3-6 KTS. WINDS
WILL BECOME EASTERLY AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS 6-12 KTS NORTH
AND APPROACHING 10-20 KTS SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY.
05
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RH VALUES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY, WHILE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL HAVE RH VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE. FIRE DANGER FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY BE ELEVATED FRIDAY
AS WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL
SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
DRIER AIR MOVES QUICKLY BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 61 82 60 72 / 0 0 100 100
ANNISTON 62 81 62 73 / 0 10 100 100
BIRMINGHAM 64 83 61 73 / 0 10 100 100
TUSCALOOSA 63 87 63 74 / 0 10 100 100
CALERA 63 81 62 73 / 0 10 100 100
AUBURN 64 76 63 74 / 0 40 100 100
MONTGOMERY 63 80 64 78 / 0 40 100 80
TROY 63 76 64 77 / 0 60 100 80
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-
ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-
SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-LAMAR-MARION-WALKER-WINSTON.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHAMBERS-CHILTON-CLAY-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-
HALE-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA.
DISCUSSION...32/JDAVIS
AVIATION...05
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