749
FXUS64 KBMX 091105
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
505 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 503 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-80%) RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, AT LEAST FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
A BROAD RIDGE SETS UP THROUGH TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TREND
UPWARDS INTO THE 70S FOR BOTH DAYS. WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THE
HIGHS MAY EXCEED GUIDANCE BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES SO TRENDED WARMER
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE NORTH. THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
AND LATER BECOMES AND EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
OUR NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK
OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS IF THE LOW GOES FURTHER NORTH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE'S STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH. FOR NOW, LOOK FOR
MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF CYCLE. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF WINDOW SO
HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER 09Z TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MOISTURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH MINRHS
RETURNING TO UPPER 30S TO 40S THIS AFTERNOON, THEN ROUGHLY 50% OR
ABOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION
BRINGING 40-60% CHANCE FOR RAIN. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 69 45 73 53 / 0 0 0 50
ANNISTON 70 47 73 53 / 0 0 0 40
BIRMINGHAM 71 50 72 55 / 0 0 0 50
TUSCALOOSA 72 49 73 53 / 10 0 0 40
CALERA 72 48 73 53 / 10 0 0 40
AUBURN 70 49 72 55 / 0 0 0 30
MONTGOMERY 73 48 75 57 / 0 0 0 20
TROY 73 48 74 57 / 0 0 0 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page