325
FXUS64 KBMX 181954
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
254 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- HEAVY RAINFALL: A WET PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: THERE IS A LEVEL 1 TO 2, OUT OF 5, RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADOES. THE THREAT IS MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA.
- THERE IS ALSO A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR SHOULD EXIT EASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING.
UNTIL THEN WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION BANDS. ALSO, WEAK SPIN-UP TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. WHILE LIGHTNING COVERAGE IS LOWER, ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
HIGH RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND STALLS. THIS WILL HELP TO MODIFY THE TROPICAL
AIRMASS WITH MORE THUNDER EXPECTED. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS, WITH WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN, MAY OCCUR AS WELL WITH JUST
FRONTAL FORCING TO ASSIST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE
STILL INDICATES HIGHER QPF AS A RESULT OF RAIN CHANCES STICKING
AROUND FOR THE WEEKEND. OUR FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO SATURDAY IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. BY SUNDAY, WEAK UPPER FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD WITH
YET AGAIN MORE ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CREEP BACK
UP, AND ZONAL UPPER FLOW DISTURBANCES ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
EXTENDED GUIDANCE HAS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF YET ANOTHER FRONT
MOVING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM TOO HAS A DECENT CHANCE OF STALLING
WITH ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TO ONLY SUPPORT MEAGER
ADVANCEMENT ACROSS ALABAMA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AND IT
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE MESSY DAY FOR TAFS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
TRIED TO TIME OUT SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE PATTERNS AND WIND
INCREASES WITH TEMPO WORDING THROUGH NEXT 6 HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAIN
END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z, WITH AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS AT MGM AND AUO, SO INCLUDED
PROB30S HERE. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION, MVFR CEILINGS ARE
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AUO
WHERE IFR IS PREVAILING. MVFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
ALL SITES DROPPING TO IFR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
16
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AS WE WILL REMAIN IN A WET
PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL
KEEP MINRH VALUES ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 86 65 85 / 70 40 10 30
ANNISTON 71 85 67 85 / 90 60 20 40
BIRMINGHAM 70 86 68 85 / 70 60 20 60
TUSCALOOSA 72 86 71 85 / 50 70 50 70
CALERA 71 88 69 87 / 70 70 40 70
AUBURN 71 83 71 85 / 100 70 50 60
MONTGOMERY 71 84 71 84 / 100 80 60 80
TROY 71 84 71 85 / 100 80 70 80
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-
PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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