366
FXUS64 KBMX 052344
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
644 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
- AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVELS 3 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
IN EFFECT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THREATS
INCLUDE ISOLATED, BRIEF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF FLASH FLOODING
WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE 1200-2200 J/KG, PROVIDING AMPLE
THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE DYNAMICS
ARE A BIT MORE COMPLEX WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET DISPLACED TO
THE NORTH AND THE MAIN TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND A BIT. WE INITIALLY
SEE MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WHEN THE FRONT BEGINS MOVING INTO CENTRAL AL. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO MORE OF A WIND AND HAIL THREAT EARLY-ON. HOWEVER, AS WE
GO INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ENHANCES THE LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, PRESENTING AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, HIGHER RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE HAS STARTED HINTING AT AN AXIS OF HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AS THIS SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH
CENTRAL AL. IN THIS AXIS, WE'RE LOOKING AT A 30-50% CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL RATES TO EXCEED 1.5-2" PER HOUR. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING, GRADUALLY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AS WE GO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AL. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
WATCH FOR ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, BUT THERE'S
STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE TIMING TO NAIL DOWN
SPECIFIC CONCERNS.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT, AS CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES
RETURN TO THE FORECAST. BY 06/10Z, MOST TERMINALS WILL BE FALLING
INTO MVFR CATEGORY, WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA WILL ALSO RETURN TO FM GROUPS BY 06/20Z AS
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WORKS INTO THE REGION. WHILE TSRA IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS, CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH
ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE PROB30S AT THIS TIME.
AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR TCL DUE TO INTERMITTENT
OBSERVATIONS.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE CONCERNS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RHS REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES TODAY WITH A FEW DRIER SPOTS IN
THE EAST. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL AL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 60 80 60 74 / 20 70 90 60
ANNISTON 61 81 63 74 / 10 70 90 70
BIRMINGHAM 65 81 64 74 / 10 80 90 60
TUSCALOOSA 64 82 64 76 / 10 70 90 60
CALERA 62 82 63 76 / 10 70 90 70
AUBURN 62 83 67 77 / 0 30 70 90
MONTGOMERY 62 88 68 78 / 0 30 70 90
TROY 60 88 66 79 / 0 20 50 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION.../44/
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