456
FXUS64 KBMX 292344
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
644 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
- HEAT: A MAJOR HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA, WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES FROM 105 TO 109
DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH AND WEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- SEVERE WEATHER: THERE IS A 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN THREAT FOR BOTH
DAYS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
IMPRESSIVE DEWPOINTS AROUND THE AREA TODAY, WITH UPPER 70S AND
NEAR 80 DEGREES QUITE COMMON. FORTUNATELY, A PERSISTENT CLOUD
DECK WAS HELPING TO KEEP AIR TEMPERATURES IN CHECK AND HEAT
INDICES FROM GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH ITS 9 PM EXPIRATION.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST,
WE WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. DRIER AIR (IN A RELATIVE SENSE) IS FORECAST TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THERE'S STILL A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BUT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, THE MORE
INTENSE CONVECTION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY CAUSE ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST COMPUTER MODEL RUNS
SEEM TO BE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING THIS FEATURE THROUGH THAN
BEFORE. SO, SUNDAY MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF A WASHOUT AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT.
BEYOND THAT, INCREASING MODEL SPREAD IN HOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
HANDLED LEADS TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COMPUTER MODEL BLEND SCHEMES OUTPUT POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMO LEVELS, AND THAT QUITE HONESTLY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE
OF ACTION AT THIS TIME.
/61/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. CURRENT ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY IMPACTING EET/MGM WHERE A
TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR TSRA THROUGH 02Z. ALL OTHER
SITES ARE CARRYING VCSH OR VCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL, OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION, THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, INCREASING TO 8-10 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR OUR
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. THEREFORE, I HAVE INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP
FOR AUO/MGM.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL HELP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN
CHECK FOR THE WEEK. MINRH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
50 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN
FROM THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH RHS DROPPING TO AROUND
40%. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NEGATE ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 91 66 91 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 70 90 66 90 / 10 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 73 92 70 93 / 20 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 74 93 72 93 / 30 10 0 20
CALERA 73 94 70 94 / 20 0 0 10
AUBURN 74 91 71 91 / 20 10 0 10
MONTGOMERY 74 94 72 94 / 30 10 10 10
TROY 73 93 71 93 / 30 30 20 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-
GREENE-HALE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-
RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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