726
FXUS64 KBMX 231817
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1217 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS RUNNING 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, AND LOWS RUNNING 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
- A FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SWINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL TO START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. VERY
UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED THE
NEXT WEEK, GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY KIND OF FORCING UNDER THIS RIDGE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW EACH NIGHT WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND
POSSIBLY SEE SOME ADVECTION FOG FROM THE SOUTH MOVE INTO AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY CHRISTMAS EVE. A FOUR
LEGGED ANIMAL WITH A RED NOSE MAY BE CALLED UPON FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF I-85 ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
BY THE WEEKEND, A POTENT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
WORKING INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING BY
THE MORNING HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE, WITH IT
PUSHING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE TRENDING QUICKER WITH THE PRECIPITATION, SO AS WITH
TYPICAL FRONT, MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL OUTRUN THE COLDER AIR
FROM THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING
TO AT, OR BELOW FREEZING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE DAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S AND 40S
IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM HERE, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FAR MORE SEASONABLE, IF NOT BELOW AVERAGE FOR A FEW DAYS TO START
THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR AT BHM AND TCL. THESE SHOULD BE DISSIPATED
BY 18Z SO WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE
DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER 6Z AND BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY 9Z.
AREAS IN THE SOUTH MAY BE A COMBINATION OF FOG AND LOW CIGS,
RESULTING IN IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR AT AUO AND MGM. LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL GENERALLY BE MFVR.
16
FIRE WEATHER
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY, USHERING IN
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. MINRH VALUES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE ABOVE 50% INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH MIXING HEIGHTS ADJUSTING WITH
THE CLOUD COVER. NO ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WORKWEEK, WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. LOWER RH ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WINDS AS RH VALUES WILL
BE IN THE 20S.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 23:
KBHM: 73/2015
KEET: 74/2015
KANB: 73/2015
KTCL: 75/1964
KMGM: 78/1990
DECEMBER 24:
KBHM: 77/1964
KEET: 74/2016
KANB: 78/1964
KTCL: 86/2019
KMGM: 79/2016
DECEMBER 25:
KBHM: 78/2016
KEET: 79/2016
KANB: 78/2015
KTCL: 80/2016
KMGM: 82/2016
DECEMBER 26:
KBHM: 76/2021
KEET: 75/2016
KANB: 78/2015
KTCL: 75/2021
KMGM: 82/2015
DECEMBER 27:
KBHM: 77/2015
KEET: 77/2015
KANB: 76/2015
KTCL: 79/2015
KMGM: 80/2016
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 53 75 51 75 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 53 75 52 74 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 55 75 54 75 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 54 76 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 54 75 53 74 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 53 77 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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