632
FXUS64 KBMX 091729
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1229 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
- A MODERATE (40-60%) CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TONIGHT, WITH A RISK
OF ISOLATED DENSE FOG POCKETS BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY
- DRIER, QUIET CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW THE MONDAY
MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SHORTWAVE ROTATING ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND A
STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST ARE CURRENTLY DRIVING A CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO LOW
CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A MODERATE (40-60%)
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BEST CHANCES
ARE FOR THOSE THAT SAW PLENTIFUL RAINFALL EARLIER THIS MORNING.
RAP GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SWATH OF CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS FROM 0-3MB ALONG WITH NARROWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF DENSE FOG BEFORE
SUNRISE SUNDAY.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL HEAD OUR WAY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST CAMS
ARE HINTING AT A BIT MORE INSTABILITY, GENERALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, WHICH WOULD HELP SUPPORT A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS
A RESULT, OUR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA REMAINS UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WORK WEEK. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKE CONTROL. A FEW
H5 RIPPLES LOOK TO TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER, MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AT THIS TIME.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO IMPROVE TODAY. WE HAVE JUST STARTED
SEEING MVFR RETURN WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AT
BHM/EET/TCL/MGM. VFR IS LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AUO IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH
WITH THIS UPDATE TO INTRODUCE A MENTION OF FOG FOR ALL SITES.
GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE AT AUO/MGM AS THEY BOTH SAW PLENTIFUL
RAINFALL THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HELP KEEP MIN RH
VALUES GENERALLY ABOVE 50%. DRIER AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH MIN RH VALUES FALLING TO 30-40% BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 55 82 57 77 / 0 20 30 20
ANNISTON 58 81 58 77 / 10 20 30 30
BIRMINGHAM 60 82 61 78 / 10 20 40 20
TUSCALOOSA 61 83 61 79 / 10 30 40 30
CALERA 60 83 61 80 / 20 30 40 30
AUBURN 62 80 63 79 / 50 30 50 50
MONTGOMERY 61 81 62 80 / 30 30 50 40
TROY 62 81 62 80 / 40 50 50 60
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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