797
FXUS64 KBMX 040506
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1206 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
- HEAT: HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S COMBINED WITH
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES
THROUGH SATURDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
CONVECTION IS DONE FOR TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY ON THE 4TH, ONLY
ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY IN THE PEAK HEAT OF THE DAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS EITHER EASTERN CONUS OR THE SOUTHEAST US THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A LARGE EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
IS IN PLACE FROM TEXAS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST, CENTERED OVER
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. ON SATURDAY, THIS RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO A WEAKER AND FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN US. ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR ONE
MORE DAY, AND WE WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW AT
LEAST THROUGH THE 4TH. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, A GUIDANCE HAS A LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DIGGING A TROUGH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EASTERN CONUS. THIS MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS TO LOOK OUT
FOR SATURDAY EVENING ON THE 4TH.
BY SUNDAY, HIGHER RAIN CHANCES MAY HELP US TOP OUT A COUPLE OF
DEGREES LOWER, AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO ESCAPE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
THEN. THIS WILL BE DUE IN PART TO THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AND
POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS THE UPPER RIDGE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN. EVEN THOUGH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE MAY BE
AVAILABLE ON SUNDAY FOR MORE COVERAGE, THE BEST CHANCES ARE STILL
IN THE AFTERNOON. MEDIUM CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUE
INTO THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DIG ACROSS EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY,
THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER, EVEN
WITH THAT RAIN CHANCES STAY SOMEWHAT DIURNALLY ELEVATED AS A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO EASTERN CONUS WITH CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTH OF IT. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF THIS FRONT
STALLING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PUSHING BACK TO THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY AND WELL AWAY FROM ALABAMA.
08
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH GRADUAL DECREASING MID TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MID SATURDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR
LOWER VISIBILITY AT MOST SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. SCATTERED CUMULUS
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
05
FIRE WEATHER
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAIN LOW, AS WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, AND HUMIDITY LEVELS STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 94 73 93 73 / 20 20 60 20
ANNISTON 93 74 93 73 / 20 20 60 30
BIRMINGHAM 94 76 93 74 / 20 20 60 30
TUSCALOOSA 95 76 93 75 / 20 20 60 20
CALERA 97 75 95 74 / 20 20 60 20
AUBURN 93 76 92 74 / 20 20 50 30
MONTGOMERY 95 76 94 74 / 20 20 50 20
TROY 94 75 93 73 / 20 20 40 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-COOSA-
DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LOWNDES-
MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BARBOUR-BULLOCK-CHAMBERS-CLAY-
CLEBURNE-LEE-MACON-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...05
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