265
FXUS64 KBMX 220117
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
717 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 713 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
WITH CLEAR SKIES, DIMINISHING NORTHERLY WINDS, AND HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA, TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY BEGUN TO DROP
THIS EVENING. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE TRENDS, BUT WE'RE WELL ON
OUR WAY TO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. IT WILL BE
CHILLY AGAIN TOMORROW DESPITE THE SUNNY SKIES, BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S, AND WINDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN
THEY WERE TODAY.
86/MARTIN
PREVIOUS SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION:
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
THIS AFTERNOON.
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT PERSISTS WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AMPLIFIED RIDGING
EXTENDS FROM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES NORTH TO OVER MUCH OF
MONTANA. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION.
SOME PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED OVER PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO LATE THIS MORNING, BUT THIS TRAPPED
MOIST LAYER WILL ERODE WITH TIME AS WE HEAD THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH TO SUNNY SOUTH
BY MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH AT 7-14 MPH
AND WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 FAR NORTHWEST TO READINGS
IN THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.
TONIGHT.
LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL BECOME POSITIONED FURTHER EAST JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT WHILE AMPLIFIED RIDGING
BUILDS EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. EXPANSIVE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.
LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS DECREASING FORM
THE NORTH TO 3-6 MPH. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS FORECAST WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. SOME
OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS NORTH AND
NORTHEAST COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS BRIEFLY BEFORE SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO SUNDAY
AS AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST BROADENS OUT WITH TIME AND AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA OVER THE DAKOTAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS FROM 4-8 MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST TO READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH AND
CENTRAL.
05
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
THE SURFACE AND UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL RESULT IN FAIR-WEATHER
CONDITIONS UNTIL TUESDAY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRANSIT THE SOUTHERN U.S. WHILE MODELS
DIFFER REGARDING TIMING AND BREADTH OF ACTIVITY, THE GENERAL THEME
WILL FAVOR SPELLS OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
JUST TO OUR EAST, PERSISTENT SURFACE WEDGING IS SUGGESTED BY THE
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET THROUGH FRIDAY. IF THIS SETUP PANS OUT, IT WOULD
TEND TO LIMIT THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND, IN TURN, TEMPER ANY SEVERE THREAT. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR ANY CHANGES SINCE ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
TROUGHS.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
A SMALL ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF BHM WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SKC AND NO AVIATION IMPACTS
EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND BECOMING
CALM TO VRB AROUND 03-05Z THEN BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 KTS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS,
GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 30S FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 20-FOOT WINDS MAY GUST UPWARDS OF
20 MPH UNTIL SUNDOWN TODAY FROM THE NORTH, BECOMING EASTERLY ON
SUNDAY AROUND 5 MPH, AND SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.
RAIN-FREE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SPELLS OF
SHOWERS COMMENCE THEREAFTER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 23 50 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 25 52 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 26 51 30 54 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 27 53 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 26 53 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 28 52 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 27 54 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 28 54 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...86/MARTIN
LONG TERM....89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...86
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