006
FXUS64 KBMX 211114
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
514 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 511 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION, WITH ENOUGH TIME IN BETWEEN TO ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF
WARM UPS AND COOL DOWNS. A FAR MORE TYPICAL "SPRING TIME" PATTERN,
WITH A TOUCH OF WINTER TEMPERATURES REMAINING.
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) REMAINS IN OUR FAR SE ZONES FOR THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, AS THE FIRST FRONT IN THE FORECAST
BEGINS TO STALL. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, INSTABILITY VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB, AND SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. A VERY SMALL TORNADO THREAT ALSO EXISTS,
BUT THE WIND PROFILES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY DEFINITELY FAVOR
THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT'S FINAL SURGE
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY RANGING IN THE
UPPER-40S AND LOW-50S.
A SECONDARY PERTURBATION WILL WORK IN BEGIN THE UPPER-LOW PRESSURE
MONDAY MORNING, DROPPING AFTERNOON HIGHS EVEN MORE, WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW-AVERAGE INTO WEDNESDAY. HERE,
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN TO OUR EAST, ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO RETURN TO
THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND COLD
FRONT BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD
EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND, BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN WITH IT ONCE AGAIN.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
AL. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL SITE THROUGH THE PERIOD, INITIALLY
WITH BHM, TCL, AND EET, THEN MGM AND AUO LATER TODAY. WITH THIS
RAIN, MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPO VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
HEAVY RAIN AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VFR AT TCL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50% FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY,
BEFORE QUICKLY FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. HERE, THEY SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE MID-20 TO 30% RANGE, BEFORE SLIGHTLY REBOUNDING
INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL,
LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE SHORTER DRYING PERIOD, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 69 32 48 22 / 40 30 0 0
ANNISTON 70 34 49 23 / 60 40 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 70 35 49 25 / 40 30 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 73 35 51 26 / 40 30 0 0
CALERA 73 35 51 25 / 60 30 0 0
AUBURN 73 40 51 28 / 80 60 0 0
MONTGOMERY 76 40 54 28 / 80 50 0 0
TROY 78 41 54 28 / 70 60 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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