947
FXUS64 KBMX 292335
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
535 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 531 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
- SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
EVERYTHING REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR A SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
EVENT FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT 3+ DAYS. THE FIRST SIGNS
OF CHANGE ARE ON OUR DOORSTEP, WITH RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS ACROSS
PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI. WE'VE STILL GOT LOTS OF DRY IN THE LOW
LEVELS HERE IN ALABAMA, SO AS THAT MS STUFF HEADS EAST IT IS
INITIALLY EXPECTED TO DRY UP OR JUST PRODUCE VIRGA. HOWEVER, LARGE
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ADVANCING
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE COLUMN TO BECOME MORE
SATURATED. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
WE DO STILL EXPECT A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO
VERY EARLY MONDAY, AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT AND THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW CLOSE BEHIND, AND INDUCE AN OVERRUNNING RAIN
EVENT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WE WILL BE ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE AIRMASS, WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD
RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST. COLD RAIN, ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.
THE RAIN COMES TO AN END LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY, AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. BEYOND THAT,
FORECAST CONFIDENCE NOSEDIVES, AS GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE ON HOW THE NEXT SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS HANDLED.
/61/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY
LEAD TO LOWERING CEILINGS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE MOISTENING PROCESS WILL BE TOP-
DOWN, WITH CEILINGS FOLLOWING SUIT. AT SOME POINT, THE RAIN WILL
COME DOWN HARD ENOUGH TO BRING CLOUD BASES DOWN BELOW 2500 FT
(NORTHERN SITES BY 10 TO 14Z, MGM 15 TO 18Z, AUO 18 TO 21Z). ONCE
THE CEILINGS DROP, THEY WILL LIKELY STAY THAT WAY WELL BEYOND THE
END OF THE CURRENT 24-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
16
FIRE WEATHER
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING AT LEAST TWO
WAVES OF RAIN TO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 41 52 29 53 / 50 60 10 50
ANNISTON 42 53 33 55 / 30 60 20 50
BIRMINGHAM 44 52 34 53 / 50 70 20 50
TUSCALOOSA 44 53 34 53 / 60 70 20 60
CALERA 44 56 34 56 / 40 70 20 50
AUBURN 43 61 42 58 / 10 40 20 40
MONTGOMERY 42 61 44 61 / 10 40 20 40
TROY 43 66 45 63 / 0 30 20 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION...16
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