143
FXUS64 KBMX 222329
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
629 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DETAILS INVOLVING TIMING AND HAZARDS WILL BE
REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
IN THE SHORT TERM, WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD ON JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN
CLOSE TO ZERO TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE, WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE THE MORE HEFTY PORTION OF
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES AREA,
THERE REMAINS LIKELY ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH OUR TAIL END
PORTION TO HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL START TO RAMP UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS ARE PRETTY
SIMILAR IN DEPICTING THE TIME FRAME OF BEST RAIN CHANCES COMING
BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND AROUND NOON ON SATURDAY.
THE SPC MARGINAL RISK IS NOTED FOR OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK ON
FRIDAY WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST (OK/AR AREA). BUT IF THAT
CONVECTION GETS WELL ORGANIZED, THEN IT COULD STILL TAP INTO SOME
LINGERING INSTABILITY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD LATER IN THE DAY
FRIDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SUNDAY IS A BIT OF A RESPITE AND RECHARGE DAY, IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
AS WE GET INTO MONDAY, A SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
RISK DEVELOPS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT OUT OF SOUTHWEST STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE
IS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PRECEDING ONE, AND THE GLOBAL MODELS
TEND TO AGREE THAT IT WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA
LATE FRIDAY. AGAIN, THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC LEVEL FORCING WILL
BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. BUT THIS TIME, SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SOME LIFT
TO GO WITH THE IN SITU MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. SHEAR PARAMETERS,
WHILE NOT THROUGH THE ROOF, ALSO APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORMS. AS SPC MENTIONED IN THEIR DAY 4-8
DISCUSSION, THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF OUR SYSTEM ON MONDAY IS
LARGELY CONTINGENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. TOO MUCH CONVECTION CARRYING TOO FAR DOWNSTREAM TOO
QUICKLY COULD HINDER THE INSTABILITY PROFILE HERE, AND DAMPEN OUR
SEVERE WEATHER RISK. BUT IF SUNDAY'S CONVECTION IS LIMITED IN
COVERAGE AND SCOPE, THEN THERE'S A CHANCE OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE MS RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD
THEN CARRY DOWNSTREAM AND AFFECT US INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STAY
TUNED.
/61/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WITH LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AND SHIFT
EWD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE FLOW INTO C AL. SRLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS.
NOTE: SPRING SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE TAF FOR KASN IS NOW BEING
ISSUED AND WILL RUN THROUGH 04/29 18Z.
08
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WE NEAR OR EXCEED CRITICAL RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOONS. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, BUT ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE
DRY FUELS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. THERE WILL BE A SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 50 83 54 84 / 0 0 0 10
ANNISTON 53 82 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 57 83 60 84 / 0 0 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 56 84 58 84 / 0 0 0 20
CALERA 55 84 57 85 / 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 56 82 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 55 84 57 86 / 0 10 0 10
TROY 54 83 55 85 / 0 10 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION...08
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page