162
FXUS64 KBMX 141744
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1244 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
- HEAVY RAINFALL: A WET PATTERN BEGINS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES ARE FORECAST OVER THE ENTIRETY OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
OUR WET PERIOD BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS HELPS DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR
WAY. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING,
EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH
MID WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
GUIDED BY A H85-H7 SHORTWAVE, WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAIN THREATS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THERE IS CURRENTLY A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEK AS A FEW PASSING
H5 SHORTWAVES INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES. THIS BOUNDARY FIZZLES OUT BY MID WEEK PROVIDING A VERY
BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE
EYE ON THIS SETUP AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST, EVENTUALLY COLLIDING WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
PRODUCER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE LATEST QPF HAS INCREASED
SLIGHTLY FROM LAST NIGHT'S UPDATE, ABOUT 2-4 INCHES ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AREAS AND 4-7 FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WE WILL BE
MONITORING THE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
WESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
LIKELY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE, OPTED TO CONTINUE
WITH THE PROB30 MENTIONS. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. BHM/EET/TCL
RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MGM/AUO KEEPING MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF CYCLE. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS KEEP MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE LATEST HREF PROBABILITIES WITH
THIS UPDATE. SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN THROUGH THE MORNING
TOMORROW WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES AT MGM AND AUO.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP MINRH VALUES ABOVE 40% THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 68 81 63 82 / 50 20 40 20
ANNISTON 70 81 65 80 / 60 30 40 50
BIRMINGHAM 70 81 66 82 / 50 30 50 40
TUSCALOOSA 72 82 68 82 / 30 60 60 50
CALERA 71 83 67 82 / 40 60 60 60
AUBURN 73 85 69 78 / 40 60 70 90
MONTGOMERY 73 84 69 79 / 30 80 90 90
TROY 74 86 69 78 / 20 90 80 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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