794
FXUS64 KBMX 011106
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
606 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL: SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST
BY FRIDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION VIA A STIFF
SOUTH WIND FROM THE GULF, WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION WILL BE
THE PRECURSOR TO OUR UPCOMING RAIN EVENT THIS WEEKEND, AS PWAT
VALUES STILL NEED TO CLIMB IN ORDER TO MEET OUR CURRENT QPF
FORECAST. THE OTHER CAVEAT HERE WILL BE THE PLACEMENT OF THE
STALLED FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SLIGHT DEVIATIONS
RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES IN OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS STILL MEDIUM THAT THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL STALL IN A VERY FAVORABLE LOCATION NORTH OF THE
STATE, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH
MONDAY. THE BULK OF THIS RAINFALL WILL FALL BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST.
GIVEN THE MODERATE TO HEAVY NATURE OF THIS ANTICIPATED RAIN,
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE TWO INCHES ARE VERY LIKELY, WITH
CURRENT PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDANCE NEAR 50% FOR MOST OF THE
STATE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THOUGH, A GOOD CHUNK OF THESE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DEPEND ON LOCATION OF THE STALLED COLD
FRONT. BY MONDAY, A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
KICK THIS COLD FRONT BACK INTO GEAR, PUSHING IT THROUGH THE
REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW COOL, DRY AIR
BACK INTO THE AREA, USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 7-9 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE, BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THERE
WILL BE A LOW (20%) CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE VICINITY OF MGM THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THIS PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S THROUGH THE 30S
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE ON
THURSDAY WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, WITH 50S AND
LOW 60S ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
LATE THIS WEEK AND INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 92 66 92 68 / 0 0 30 30
ANNISTON 91 67 91 68 / 0 0 30 40
BIRMINGHAM 91 69 91 70 / 0 0 30 40
TUSCALOOSA 94 69 94 69 / 10 10 30 30
CALERA 92 68 91 69 / 0 0 30 40
AUBURN 88 69 88 69 / 0 0 40 40
MONTGOMERY 92 70 91 70 / 10 10 50 40
TROY 90 69 89 69 / 20 10 60 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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