148  
FXUS64 KBMX 051209  
AFDBMX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL  
709 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
   
UPDATE
 
 
FOR 12Z AVIATION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
/UPDATED AT 353 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2022/  
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
THE PATTERN FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE SIMILAR WITH  
WEAK LOW LEVEL S TO SW FLOW. (I AM BEGINNING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN  
RECORD THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THIS PATTERN.) THE TREND IS A TAD  
WARMER/MORE HUMID EACH DAY. THERE IS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE  
GULF COAST TO OUR S CONNECTED TO THE BIGGER ATLANTIC RIDGE. TO THE  
N, THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED NE AND NOW STRETCHES FROM MN  
SEWD TO THE CAROLINAS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH AWAY TO THE  
NE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A LOW MOVES FROM THE MN ACROSS THE  
GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WE KEEP RIDGING AS WELL. THIS RIDGE EXTENDS  
FROM TX TO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MINOR PERTURBATIONS  
THROUGH THIS UPPER FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS C  
AL. AFTER ANOTHER MORNING OF SCATTERED LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG,  
LOOK FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH CONTINUED UNORGANIZED, MAINLY DIURNAL,  
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING THE HEAT OF THE  
DAY. PWS REMAIN ELEVATED (ABOVE 2IN), SO WE CONTINUE TO HAVE PLENTY  
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OVERALL LOW LEVELS MOISTURE WILL  
SLOWLY INCH UPWARD NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR THE FAR W  
COUNTIES. BASED ON THE LATEST NUMBERS (BLEND OF NBM AND CONSSHORT),  
I WILL EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO ALL BUT 4 COUNTIES IN THE E CENTRAL  
PART OF AL (HIGHER TERRAIN/LOWER TEMPS, ETC...) WILL HAVE ALL IN  
BUT...CLAY, CLEBURNE, RANDOLPH, AND CHAMBERS. WILL ALSO EXPAND THE  
ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, TOMORROW WE  
WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDING ANOTHER DAY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER FOR NOW,  
WE WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY AT 2 DAYS AT AT TIME. HOWEVER, WE ARE  
MENTIONING HEAT IN THE HWO THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
08  
   
LONG TERM
 
 
/UPDATED AT 353 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2022/  
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
595 DECAMETER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS  
SHOULD HAVE A SUPPRESSIVE EFFECT ON CONVECTION, BUT WITH PWATS STILL  
LINGERING AROUND 2 INCHES AND STRONG HEATING, STILL EXPECT SOME  
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY  
AFTERNOONS. RELATIVELY HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST  
COUNTIES CLOSER TO SOME RIDGE-RIDING WAVES, BUT CURRENTLY EXPECT THE  
STRONGEST ACTIVITY/ANY MCSS TO REMAIN OVER GEORGIA AND THE  
CAROLINAS. WITH THE RIDGE, WEST WINDS, AND LESS CONVECTION, HAVE  
GONE WITH THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGHS EVEN BLENDING IN SOME OF  
THE 90TH PERCENTILE AT TIMES WHICH SEEMS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH  
OBSERVATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THE PAST COUPLE  
DAYS AND WITH PREVIOUS HEAT WAVES THIS SUMMER. THIS PUTS HIGHS INTO  
THE UPPER 90S IN MANY AREAS, AND WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE AREAS  
LIKE TUSCALOOSA AND MONTGOMERY HIT 100F AGAIN. DEW POINTS SHOULD MIX  
DOWN INTO THE 72-73F RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN  
THE 105F TO 109F RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE  
EXCEPT SOME OF THE FAR EAST-CENTRAL HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES.  
NEAR-RECORD "WARM LOW" TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WILL PROVIDE  
LITTLE RELIEF AT NIGHT. EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY IS LIKELY  
IN LATER UPDATES.  
 
BY SATURDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE  
RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH  
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS PUTS CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER  
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVELY GENERATED  
SHORTWAVES. THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT WON'T REALLY MAKE IT THIS FAR  
SOUTH BUT THE MID-LEVEL FRONT WILL. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS  
INCREASING TO 2 TO 2.25 INCHES WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED COVERAGE  
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CONTINUING  
INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT  
AND FAIRLY SATURATED PROFILES ARE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTIVE  
INTENSITY, BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY STORM  
CLUSTERS/MCSS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM GIVEN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND A  
LITTLE BIT OF FLOW ALOFT. TIMING OF CONVECTION AND ANY OUTFLOWS  
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH WILL MAKE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST  
TRICKY, BUT HOT TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION AND POTENTIALLY  
HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105F  
ANYWHERE THAT CAN REMAIN CONVECTION/OUTFLOW FREE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.  
ADVISORY-LEVEL HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO SOUTHWESTERN  
COUNTIES BY SUNDAY. DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASED  
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR MONDAY, WITH A TEMPORARY RESPITE FROM  
THE WORST OF THE HEAT INDICES.  
 
32/DAVIS  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.  
 
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WE HAVE A FEW  
SPOTS WITH IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD GO VFR  
IN A FEW OF HOURS. OTHERWISE, MORE MAINLY AFTERNOON TSRA IS EXPECTED  
WITH HEATING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT THE SRN TAF SITES (MGM/TOI).  
 
08  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
THE MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RH VALUES  
REMAIN IN THE 45 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. 20 FT WINDS  
REMAIN LIGHT, LESS THAN 10 MPH.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
GADSDEN 94 73 94 73 96 / 30 20 40 20 30  
ANNISTON 93 74 94 75 95 / 40 20 40 20 30  
BIRMINGHAM 94 75 94 76 97 / 40 20 40 20 30  
TUSCALOOSA 95 74 96 75 98 / 50 20 40 10 20  
CALERA 93 75 94 75 94 / 50 20 40 10 30  
AUBURN 92 74 94 75 94 / 60 30 30 10 30  
MONTGOMERY 96 75 97 76 99 / 60 30 40 10 20  
TROY 94 74 94 74 96 / 70 30 40 10 20  
 

 
   
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE  
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BLOUNT...  
BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...CHILTON...COOSA...DALLAS...  
ELMORE...ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...JEFFERSON...LAMAR...  
LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...MARENGO...MARION...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...  
PICKENS...PIKE...RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...  
TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.  
 

 
 

 
 
08/32  
 
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