109
FXUS64 KBMX 301739
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1239 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING OR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, FLANKED ON BOTH SIDES BY A LARGE
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING TOWARDS THE UPPER PLAINS.
DESPITE BEING SITUATED DOWNSTREAM OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS,
CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS, A LOW-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH IS LOOSELY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BROADER TROUGHING REGIME TO OUR EAST, AND A REMNANT
SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION TO OUR
NORTH. A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS, AND LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS, EXPECT COVERAGE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE MIX AS WELL, AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID
80S. ACTIVITY WILL BE TROPICAL IN NATURE AND NOT PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED, BUT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA
TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TOMORROW. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME EASTERLY FOR AREAS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-65 WHILE WEAK WESTERLY WINDS PERSIST TO THE
WEST OF I-65. A THETA-E BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH COULD SERVE AS
A FOCUS POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS SUCH, HIGHEST POPS
ARE FOCUSED ALONG AND SURROUNDING THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
WE WILL BE IN SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITION PERIOD ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST
WHILE THE PERSISTENT TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST.
MOISTURE CONTENT AND POPS WILL BEGIN TO DROP QUITE A BIT FROM
WHAT WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS AS DEEP-
LAYER FLOW BECOMES PREDOMINATELY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY, AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED. WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT AREA-WIDE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND A SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD IN THE FORM OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON, AND LOW
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING, WITH THE GREATEST
AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED BETWEEN 20-01Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.
CEILINGS ARE GRADUALLY RISING THIS AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECT IFR
CEILINGS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP AROUND 06Z WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY 15-16Z TOMORROW.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO HIGH
RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OR
PATCHY FOG EACH MORNING. THEREFORE, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 66 81 63 85 / 30 70 20 30
ANNISTON 67 80 65 85 / 40 70 20 30
BIRMINGHAM 69 84 67 87 / 30 70 20 30
TUSCALOOSA 71 88 70 89 / 20 50 10 30
CALERA 69 86 67 89 / 30 70 20 30
AUBURN 70 81 68 87 / 40 80 30 30
MONTGOMERY 70 85 68 88 / 30 80 30 20
TROY 69 85 68 88 / 40 80 50 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86/MARTIN
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
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