230
FXUS64 KBMX 302319
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
619 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
- A TROPICAL LOW MOVING WEST ACROSS THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCES (~30%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN
CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY MIDWEEK. MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEATRISK IS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEK. A WEAK EASTERLY FLOW IS SUPPORTING FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER, RADAR REMAINS CLEAR. A WEAK SURFACE LOW,
CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 125 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA COAST, WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE NHC MAINTAINS A
LOW (30%) CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
WHILE CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL LARGELY REMAIN DRY, DEEPER MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW SUPPORTS A LOW (20%) CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN SOUTHERN AREAS. MOST ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET, THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY
GIVEN MINIMAL WIND SHEAR, THOUGH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DURING
PEAK HEATING COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED, STRONGER STORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.
AS THE WORK WEEK PROGRESSES, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD, STEERING THE TROPICAL LOW WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRIER AIR AND INCREASED SUBSIDENCE,
MAINTAINING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS STAY ELEVATED. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
90S BY MIDWEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY AS
HEAT INDICES CLIMB TO 105-107 DEGREES.
16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR
AUO/MGM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN IMPACTS AT EITHER TERMINAL SO OPTED
TO INTRODUCE A SHORT VCSH THROUGH 03Z. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 6-8 KNOTS OUT OF THE
EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION
OUTAGE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 45% THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. LOW (~20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE DAILY, GENERALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 71 94 72 95 / 0 10 0 10
ANNISTON 70 92 71 94 / 0 10 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 73 93 74 95 / 0 10 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 74 95 74 97 / 0 10 0 10
CALERA 72 93 73 95 / 10 10 0 10
AUBURN 72 91 73 92 / 10 10 0 10
MONTGOMERY 74 95 74 96 / 10 10 0 10
TROY 72 93 72 94 / 20 10 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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