197
FXUS64 KBMX 231808
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
108 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
THE WEATHER STORY FOR OUR REGION BEGINS TODAY OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS ALONG THE DRYLINE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE OVER THERE
THIS EVENING, CONTINUING TO WORK EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TOMORROW, SLOWLY LOSING STRENGTH OVER TIME. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
A PSEUDO-SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL
ARKANSAS, LIKELY ALONG A LEFTOVER BOUNDARY FROM THESE EASTWARD
PROPAGATING STORMS. IT IS THIS NEW ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CONTINUE TO GROW, MOVING SOUTH AND EAST,
WORKING INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY, AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
AS OF THIS MORNING, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS
ADJUSTED AND MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR A
PORTION OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW ON THE
PROSPECTS OF SEVERE WEATHER, AS MORNING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
PAINT A VERY BROAD PICTURE. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WORKING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SEEMS HIGHLY LIKELY, BUT QUESTION MARKS
REMAIN ON HOW LONG, AND HOW INTENSELY THIS LINE WILL BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF. IN THE EVENT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
MATERIALIZES, DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS
LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE, AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS.
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY, BEFORE THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER WORKS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HERE CONTINUES TO
DECREASE, AS THE MAIN TRIGGER MECHANISMS AND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUE
TO EVOLVE TO OUR NW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO AT LEAST PUSH GENERAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER THAT
ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. WITH THAT BEING SAID, WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS FOR THIS EVENT, AND MAKE ANY
NECESSARY MESSAGING ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.
FROM HERE, THE REGION IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO WORK INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND,
INTRODUCING ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES ONCE MORE
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD, AS THE REGION REMAINS INFLUENCED BY A SUBTLE SURFACE
RIDGE.
NOTE: SPRING SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE TAF FOR KASN IS NOW BEING
ISSUED AND WILL RUN THROUGH 04/29 18Z.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WE NEAR OR EXCEED CRITICAL RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOONS. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, BUT ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE
DRY FUELS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. THERE WILL BE A SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 54 84 59 80 / 0 10 70 80
ANNISTON 56 83 60 79 / 0 10 60 80
BIRMINGHAM 59 84 63 79 / 0 10 80 80
TUSCALOOSA 58 84 63 82 / 0 20 80 80
CALERA 57 85 61 82 / 0 10 70 80
AUBURN 59 84 63 80 / 0 10 30 80
MONTGOMERY 56 86 62 82 / 0 10 40 80
TROY 55 85 61 81 / 0 10 20 80
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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