155
FXUS64 KBMX 161140
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
540 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 536 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 920 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGING BEGINS TO FLATTEN WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COLD FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE
MID-MS AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WE COULD SEE SOME
LOWER RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND WE SEE SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT. FOR NOW, THOSE RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW (20-
30%). AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WEEK, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, LEADING TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE'S QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY
IN THE TIMING WITH SOME INDICATIONS IT COULD MOVE FURTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL AL FRIDAY AND STALLS OUT AGAIN, LEADING TO CONTINUED HIGH
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS IT STALLED TO
OUR NORTH BEFORE PUSHING IT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY, WHICH MAKES
THE WINDOW FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES MUCH NARROWER. WILL KEEP MENTION
OF MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES 40-60% FRIDAY, THEN 40-50% THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FOR NOW. GIVEN THE WIDE VARIABILITY IN SOLUTIONS FOR
WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
EQUALLY AS UNCERTAIN. THE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WHETHER THAT'S SUNDAY OR MONDAY AT THIS POINT,
THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE MUCH COLDER, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
MORE TYPICAL FEBRUARY DIURNAL RANGES.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AREAWIDE TOWARD MIDDAY. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE NORTH AND AVERAGE FROM 4-8 KTS TODAY, BECOMING NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AT 2-4 KTS UNDER FAIR SKIES THEN BECOME FROM THE SOUTHEAST
ON TUESDAY FROM 4-8 KTS WHILE HIGH LEVEL AND SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
05
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS
WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST, WE SHOULD SEE MINRHS
REMAINING IN THE 40-50+% RANGE EVEN WITH THE WARMING TREND IN
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 68 41 70 52 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 69 43 71 52 / 0 0 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 69 46 70 56 / 0 0 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 69 45 72 55 / 0 0 0 10
CALERA 70 43 72 53 / 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 68 45 70 53 / 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 69 44 72 53 / 0 0 0 10
TROY 69 46 72 53 / 0 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...05
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