855
FXUS64 KBMX 280537
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1137 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1131 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
- DENSE FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOCATIONS THAT SHOULD SEE THE MOST IMPACTS DUE
TO FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE MAJOR RIVER BASINS AND
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
- A DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
SHALLOW FOG IS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY REACH THE DEWPOINT. A MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
STILL REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE STRETCHING FROM DEMOPOLIS
NORTHEASTWARD TO BIRMINGHAM AND GADSDEN, WHICH IS WHAT'S LEFT OF
THE SURFACE FRONT. LOCATIONS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS GRADIENT
WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG FORMATION, WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE DUE
TO PREVIOUS RAINFALL FROM THE LAST 24 HOURS WILL ALSO AID IN THE
FORMATION OF FOG. A MAJORITY OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE
BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. HREF
PROBABILITIES ARE COMING IN WITH OVER A 50% CHANCE OF 1/2 MILE OR
LESS VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. THEREFORE, I'VE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS FAR WEST AS
ST. CLAIR, SHELBY, CHILTON, AND DALLAS COUNTIES THROUGH 8AM
SATURDAY MORNING. MAINLY FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE
ADVISORY, I WANTED TO COVER THE MAJOR RIVER BASINS AND MAJOR LAKES
(SUCH AS THE COOSA RIVER AND LAY/LOGAN MARTIN LAKES) WHICH HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING DENSE FOG BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT STARTING
OUT AS SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND EVENTUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FOLLOWING THE FOG MIXING OUT SATURDAY MORNING, WE'LL BEGIN A
STREAK OF TRANQUIL, WARM, AND DRY WEATHER DAYS THAT COULD LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LIGHT WINDS. THE DIURNAL
CURVE WILL BE FAIRLY PRONOUNCED EACH DAY DUE TO DRIER AIR STAYING
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE, WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES AND GREAT PLAINS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITHIN WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
500MB. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING RIDGING AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT 700MB OVER THE ARKLATEX SUNDAY EVENING, WHICH DIVERTS THE
BEST LIFT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OFF TO OUR NORTH DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. AS A MORE ZONAL 500MB FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THIS
TIME, A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL OUT TO OUR NORTH OVER
TENNESSEE BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. AS
SUCH, POPS WERE KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL CONTINUE, WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY EAST OF I-65 AS A CAD WEDGE TRIES TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE THEN BECOMES SOUTHERLY AT THE SURFACE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A
STORM SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AS OF RIGHT NOW,
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE WINNING THAT BATTLE AND A COLD
FRONT NOT ALLOWED TO MOVE ANY FARTHER SOUTH THAN MEMPHIS. IF THAT
SOLUTION VERIFIES, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD TERRITORY BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE
LOWER 80S. NO SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL AND CERTAINLY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON THE HORIZON FOR THE NEXT 7
TO 10 DAYS.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
DENSE FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO NEAR OR BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT KAUO AND KMGM FROM AROUND 07Z TO 14Z.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER AND BECOME VFR AROUND 16-18Z.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KBHM, KEET, AND KTCL.
HOWEVER, KEET IS ON THE EDGE OF THE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
AREA AND SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN AN
AMENDMENT AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT.
87/GRANTHAM
FIRE WEATHER
MIN RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE
30-40% RANGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR
ANY RAINFALL. THANKFULLY, 20FT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WHICH HELP
NEGATE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOOKING INTO THE LONG-
TERM FORECAST, SOIL AND FUEL MOISTURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S AND PERHAPS INTO THE
80S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 42 72 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 46 73 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 46 74 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 42 77 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 45 74 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 52 72 49 76 / 10 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 51 74 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 53 74 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHILTON-CLAY-
CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-
RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA.
DISCUSSION...56/GDG
AVIATION...87/GRANTHAM
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