084
FXUS64 KBMX 151813
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
113 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
- HEAVY RAINFALL: A WET PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT
WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE FORECAST,
WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A STALLED COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INLAND TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE REACH PEAK HEATING AND A H85-H7 SHORTWAVE ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW BUT
WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE ANTICIPATED AS ANOTHER SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY WITH ANY PASSING SHOWER OR STORM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT A FULLY SATURATED PROFILE WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH
WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE UP TO 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS. BY
WEDNESDAY, THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT, PROVIDING A VERY BRIEF LULL
IN OUR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS SETUP AS A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST,
EVENTUALLY COLLIDING WITH THIS BOUNDARY. A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE, PROMOTING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE 4-7 INCH RANGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION. VFR IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS AT AUO/MGM AS
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY PASSES THROUGH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BHM/EET/TCL.
OPTED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
HOWEVER, WE MAY NEED AN AMENDMENT BASED ON TRENDS. LOW LEVEL
CEILINGS QUICKLY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FOR ALL SITES WITH MVFR BY 03-
06Z AND IFR BY 07-10Z. -SHRA IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS TUESDAY.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AS A FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE
REGION. WE WILL REMAIN IN A WET PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP MINRH VALUES ABOVE 50% THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 64 78 66 86 / 10 70 60 40
ANNISTON 65 76 67 84 / 30 90 70 50
BIRMINGHAM 67 77 67 85 / 60 90 60 50
TUSCALOOSA 69 78 69 86 / 80 90 50 50
CALERA 68 77 68 87 / 70 90 70 60
AUBURN 69 74 68 82 / 80 100 80 80
MONTGOMERY 69 76 68 84 / 90 100 70 80
TROY 69 76 68 83 / 90 100 70 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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