138
FXUS64 KBMX 081109
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
509 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 508 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
- TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
GOES NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY REVEALS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL AL LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE MID 20S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS TO AROUND 30 DEGREES TO THE
SOUTH. A FEW UPPER CLOUDS MAY SKIRT BY THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
(PWATS AROUND 0.3" PER THE LATEST TPW IMAGERY) IN PLACE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS A H5 SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTH TOWARDS
MID WEEK, EVENTUALLY MOVING TROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE COMBINATION OF THE SHORTWAVE,
SURFACE BOUNDARY, AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES. POPS COME DOWN SLIGHTLY ON
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
GULF COAST.
THE STALLED FRONT BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE BACK ACROSS CENTRAL AL. AT THE SAME
TIME, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TEXAS, TOWARDS THE SE
US. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TAKING A LOOK AT TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND WILL KICK IN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
EARLY ON IN THE WORK WEEK. OUR MID WEEK COLD FRONT AND CONTINUED
RAIN CHANCES WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN A HANDFUL OF DEGREES HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE ON SUNDAY WITH RHS FALLING INTO THE 20-25%
RANGE ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. LUCKILY, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT TO HELP NEGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MOISTURE RECOVERY
BEGINS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK WITH MIN RHS IN THE 40-50%
RANGE DAILY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 57 34 69 42 / 0 10 0 0
ANNISTON 59 38 69 46 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 59 42 70 49 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 62 43 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 61 41 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 59 41 69 48 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 62 41 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 63 41 72 48 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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