658
FXUS64 KBMX 230525
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1225 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DETAILS INVOLVING TIMING AND HAZARDS WILL BE
REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
ONE MORE RAIN FREE DAY IS TO BE EXPECTED FOR THU AS WE CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY WARM AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. SURFACE RIDGING
REMAINS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, AS TODAY'S
EARLIER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE E, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN
US ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO AB/SK IN CANADA ON THU. THE FLOW ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH WILL BECOME WEAKER DURING THIS TIME IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.
BETTER MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE STARTING FRI AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MORE ONSHORE FLOW AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE
UPPER LOW OVER SK IN CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD INTO MB CANADA
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MON. AS IT DOES SO, SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN LOW WITH LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES OF
IMPACTS AFFECTING THE DEEP SOUTH. C AL WILL TRANSITION INTO A
WETTER PATTERN FOR FRI. STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO OUR W ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO AL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WHILE THE BETTER ENERGY AND INSTABILITY ON FRI IS EXPECTED
TO BE TO OUR W, THERE IS A LOW (1 OUT OF 5 CHANCE) THAT SOME OF
THE ACTIVITY COULD STILL BE STRONG BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO AL
FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SAT AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
REGION. IT WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE STATE ON
SUN BEFORE MOVING BACK NWD.
BY MON, THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE NEWD TOWARD THE
UPPER MIDWEST US. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT BACK ACROSS AL MON
INTO TUE. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE (2 OUT OF 5 CHANCE) OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR MON
INTO MON NIGHT. THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH ENERGY IS TAPPED WITH THE CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS ON SUN UPSTREAM OF AL. IF LESS OCCURS UPSTREAM, CHANCES
ARE GREATER FOR A MORE ROBUST CONVECTION DAY FOR MON INTO EARLY
TUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY, INCLUDING PORTIONS
OF C AL. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF THE MAIN LOW AND OTHER PARAMETERS WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE
PROBABILITY FOR IMPACTS REMAINS, AND WILL NEED CONTINUED
REFINEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO MON.
08
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WITH LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS, GENERALLY
5-10 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
EVENING.
NOTE: SPRING SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE TAF FOR KASN IS NOW BEING
ISSUED AND WILL RUN THROUGH 04/29 18Z.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WE NEAR OR EXCEED CRITICAL RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOONS. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, BUT ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE
DRY FUELS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. THERE WILL BE A SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 84 54 84 59 / 0 0 10 80
ANNISTON 83 56 83 60 / 0 0 10 70
BIRMINGHAM 84 59 84 63 / 0 0 20 80
TUSCALOOSA 84 58 83 63 / 0 0 30 80
CALERA 84 57 84 62 / 0 0 20 80
AUBURN 82 59 83 63 / 0 0 10 40
MONTGOMERY 84 56 86 62 / 0 0 20 50
TROY 83 55 85 61 / 10 0 20 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page