454
FXUS64 KBMX 011720
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1120 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
- TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN TYPICAL FOR EARLY
MARCH WITH HIGHS AND LOWS AS MUCH AS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
- PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE, AND ASSOCIATED PATTERN OF ISENTROPIC LIFT,
WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY CLIPS NORTH ALABAMA. FOR OUR
AREA/CENTRAL ALABAMA, TAME WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR ALL AND A TREND TOWARD VARIABLE
CLOUDS FOR SOME.
VARIED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATER THIS WEEK. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE FOCUS FOR
THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST DUE TO
RIDGING CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.; HOWEVER, ISOLATED
ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR LOCALLY. FOR THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE DATA SHOW
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS, IN PART DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S RIDGE, IN TERMS OF HOW FAR EAST A CENTRAL U.S. FRONT
GETS AND WHETHER ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS MAINTAINED OR
BECOMES DEGRADED. THE CURRENT FORECAST INCLUDES AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS ENSEMBLE MEANS BRING THE FRONT
CLOSE TO THE AREA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE LATE THIS
WEEK, WITH FORECAST HIGHS NEAR RECORDS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED THROUGH THIS TAF. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG AT MGM-AUO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, SOMETHING
WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON FOR UPCOMING TAFS.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. MINRHS WILL
BE LOWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON, AS LOW AS THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. THEREAFTER, INCREASED DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST,
KEEPING DAILY MINRHS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, IN THE
40S/50S. WINDS TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR
LESS, BECOMING SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AT 5-10 MPH
DURING THE DAY, CALM AT NIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
MARCH 4:
KBHM: 84/1976
KEET: 84/2022
KTCL: 83/1976
KMGM: 85/2022
MARCH 5:
KBHM: 83/1974
KEET: 83/2022
KANB: 84/1974
KTCL: 83/1974
KMGM: 85/1989
MARCH 6:
KBHM: 83/1974
KEET: 81/2023
KANB: 84/1974
KTCL: 83/1974
KMGM: 86/2022
MARCH 7:
KBHM: 84/1956
KEET: 83/2023
KTCL: 85/2023
KMGM: 87/2023
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 76 49 75 51 / 0 10 10 0
ANNISTON 77 51 75 52 / 0 10 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 78 54 77 56 / 0 10 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 79 52 79 55 / 0 10 0 0
CALERA 79 50 78 54 / 0 10 0 0
AUBURN 76 52 75 55 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 77 49 78 54 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 77 49 78 54 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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