977
FXUS64 KBMX 010321
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1021 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER: THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF ALABAMA ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
- HEAVY RAIN: CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING
BOUNDARY.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WORK
INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW. THE FIRST ROUND WILL
BE SOMETIME DURING THE MORNING, AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE PUSHES
EAST. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WHEN THE COLD FRONT PROPER BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE STATE. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH TOMORROW,
AND MANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE PROLIFIC RAINFALL PRODUCERS. IN
THE EVENT STORMS START TO TRAIN, OR STORM MOTIONS SLOW DOWN,
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE HIGH RAINFALL
RATES. THANKFULLY, THESE AREAS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN SCOPE, AND
WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE
SPC HAS ALSO MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR
TOMORROW, WITH DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AS THE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO DROP TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST, IT WILL START TO BECOME DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTH. THIS NOW CUTOFF LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, KEEPING ELEVATED
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO
AID IN KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE UPPER-80S AND LOW-90S. UNFORTUNATELY,
THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BECOME ABSORBED BACK INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW BY THURSDAY, AS A RIDGE BUILDS OFF TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID-90S
ONCE MORE HEADED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
THE STALLED FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY DECREASE PAST
01/03Z, BEFORE ADDITIONAL RAIN MOVES IN CLOSER TO 01/12Z.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION, WITH ALL
TERMINALS CURRENTLY CARRYING PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA PAST 01/20Z.
OTHERWISE, REDUCED CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CIGS PAST 01/06Z.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL HELP KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN
CHECK INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH MINRH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
45 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AT
TIMES OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE
EAST BY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH RHS DROPPING TO AROUND 40%.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NEGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 72 92 70 88 / 50 90 80 30
ANNISTON 72 90 72 87 / 40 80 80 10
BIRMINGHAM 74 92 72 87 / 50 50 70 20
TUSCALOOSA 74 92 71 88 / 70 40 50 20
CALERA 73 93 71 89 / 50 40 70 10
AUBURN 74 86 74 87 / 20 70 60 40
MONTGOMERY 74 93 74 91 / 40 50 60 20
TROY 72 90 73 90 / 40 50 50 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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