567
FXUS64 KBMX 210600
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1200 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON SATURDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A
LOW RISK FOR A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ARISE
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
- CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
TODAY & TONIGHT:
A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BROAD ASCENT WILL SPAWN
SEVERAL PROGRESSIVE BATCHES/CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW LEVELS TO ONLY BE
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AT BEST, THOUGH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL
EXIST, WITH BULK SHEAR NEARING 40 KNOTS. A FEW CELLS MAY ACQUIRE
MODEST INTENSITY, OFFERING DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF SUB-
SEVERE WIND GUST.
THE WEEKEND:
WE SHOULD BE ON THE TAIL END OF THE BRUNT OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LAST MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVES BY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, THOUGH A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAINS AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH FRIDAY'S SYSTEM NEARS
THE REGION. PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DAILY RECORD FOR A FEW CLIMATE
SITES.
CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND-HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK:
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT
WEEK, HOLDING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MONDAY LOOKS RAIN-FREE AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A PAIR OF TROUGHS WILL BE
ON ITS HEELS AND BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN THE PRIMARY WINDOW BEING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT; HOWEVER, THERE'S A DECENT AMOUNT OF GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES
THAT SHOW A SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM, RESULTING IN LINGERING
ACTIVITY INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST A
LOW SEVERE WEATHER RISK COULD MATERIALIZE, THOUGH THE MAIN LOBE OF
FORCING QUICKLY EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE EVENT. WE
MAINTAIN THE SAME POSTURE OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS: WATCHING BUT
NO FORMAL INCLUSION IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THANKSGIVING DAY:
IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL GET THE EARLY-WEEK RAINMAKER OUT OF HERE IN
TIME FOR THANKSGIVING. THE CURRENT FORECAST FEATURES FAIR-WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
FOG MAY AFFECT A FEW TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z TODAY; ALREADY
MENTIONED AT SOME WHILE OTHERS MAY REQUIRE AN AMENDMENT PENDING
TRENDS AND SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO
TAKE HOLD DURING THE EVENING.
THERE IS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE TO THE TAFS IN TERMS OF THE TIMING
AND EXTENT OF REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY; AMENDMENTS MAY BE
REQUIRED.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
MINRHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE, AND WINDS BELOW, CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
LIKELY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 22:
KBHM: 79/1900
KEET: 77/2010
KANB: 79/1963
KTCL: 79/1979
KMGM: 81/2011
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 56 74 60 77 / 10 60 70 20
ANNISTON 57 75 62 76 / 0 60 70 30
BIRMINGHAM 59 72 64 76 / 0 60 60 20
TUSCALOOSA 58 74 63 78 / 10 80 60 20
CALERA 56 75 61 79 / 0 70 70 20
AUBURN 57 75 64 78 / 0 30 50 30
MONTGOMERY 56 77 64 81 / 0 50 50 20
TROY 54 77 64 81 / 0 20 30 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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