746
FXUS64 KBMX 221747
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1147 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1147 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM TODAY FOR WIND GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH OUR AREA
SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND A DEEPENING
NOR'EASTER NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. NBM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY MORNING APPEAR TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO COLD SINCE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED BY WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT. OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS NUDGED UPWARD, CLOSER TO RAW
MODEL GUIDANCE, SINCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ALMOST
COMPLETELY DICTATED BY COLD ADVECTION. WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITERIA FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. MONDAY
WILL FEATURE THE COLDEST AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN
OUR EXTREME NORTH TO THE MID 40S IN OUR SOUTH. WINDS WILL RELAX
ON MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 10S TO MID 20S ON TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY SIGNALING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. MOISTURE RECOVERY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK SBCAPE OR MUCAPE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONGLY FORCED BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG
A COLD FRONT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY IN OUR FORECAST, BUT
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS THE CONVECTIVE BAND SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
87/GRANTHAM
FIRE WEATHER
RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HOVER IN THE 26-34 PERCENT RANGE
AS 20 FOOT WINDS GUST AS HIGH AS 25 MPH THROUGH SUNSET. 20 FOOT
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY, BUT GUSTS OF
15 TO 20 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. RH VALUES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 26-34 PERCENT RANGE ON MONDAY. DAYTIME RH
VALUES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT
RANGE, BUT SOUTHWESTERLY 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
UNDER 10 MPH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH APPEARS
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 47 24 40 18 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 47 25 42 21 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 47 25 41 23 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 50 27 44 23 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 50 26 43 23 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 50 27 44 24 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 53 29 45 24 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 53 29 45 22 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION...87/GRANTHAM
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