665
FXUS64 KBMX 181147
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
647 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOME A DAILY
FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE
REGION.
- WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO START OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
AS OF WRITING, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON REMAINED ACROSS THE BORDER IN GEORGIA WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WAS MAXIMIZED WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MOISTURE. MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A PASSING H85-H7 SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH
AN EXPANDING PLUME OF HEALTHY MOISTURE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING THE AREA OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL LOSE ITS GRASP BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL SINK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
EVENTUALLY STALLING AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS
A RESULT, WE WILL SEE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY THE WEEKEND, THE STALLED FRONT RETREATS BACK TO
THE NORTH, LEAVING AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
THEREFORE, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SURFACE
RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS AT
TIMES. THERE WILL BE LOW, DIURNALLY ENHANCED, AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA, BUT IT IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT ANY TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
08
FIRE WEATHER
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER, MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 88 64 88 64 / 10 10 10 20
ANNISTON 87 65 88 65 / 10 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 89 69 89 68 / 10 10 10 40
TUSCALOOSA 89 69 90 68 / 10 10 10 30
CALERA 89 67 90 66 / 10 10 10 30
AUBURN 88 67 89 68 / 10 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 89 66 90 68 / 30 10 10 10
TROY 88 65 89 67 / 20 10 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...08
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