571
FXUS64 KBMX 110523
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1223 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
- PERSISTENT HEAT: AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REACH THE UPPER 80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK,
WITH HEAT INDICES FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO ABOVE 100 DEGREES. TAKE
EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WITH ANY EXTENDED AFTERNOON OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.
- THUNDERSTORMS: A BRIEF PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS
RAINFALL MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
THIS EVENING, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWESTWARD
OUT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND HAS DETERIORATED THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS WILL GIVE JUST ENOUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW TO PUSH A SURFACE FRONT CLOSE TO ALABAMA TO STRETCH FROM
ARKANSAS TO KENTUCKY AND THE MARYLAND COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY AS THE
PARENT ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS AND OUT OF
QUEBEC. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE
SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY WITH THE
BOUNDARY PUSHING BACK WELL TO THE NORTH, GIVING WAY TO A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FETCH INTO THE STATE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGHING SHIFTS CLOSER TO ALABAMA WITH AMPLE DISTURBANCE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LOW, QPF AMOUNTS
OF 0.5 TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
MAY OCCUR OVER THIS TIME FRAME WITH A FEW LOCALLY ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
BY SUNDAY, THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHERN US. WHILE THERE IS STILL A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY TO OCCUR, IT SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OVERALL. BY MONDAY, AND INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
FURTHER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL YIELD A WEAK EASTERLY
FLOW INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND MORE DIURNALLY ENHANCED ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WITH LOW QPF AMOUNTS.
08
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
LOW IFR STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH INTO MOST OF THE
TAF SITES, NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS BHM.
MEDIUM CHANCES FOR DROPS IN VISIBILITY AS WELL. ARRIVAL TIMES WILL
BE FROM 9-12Z AND COULD LAST AS LATE AS 16-17Z. CONVECTION CHANCES
INCREASE FOR FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH PROB30 AND
TEMPO GROUPS EFFECTIVE FOR ALL SITES FROM 18Z UNTIL 00Z OR 04Z
FRIDAY EVENING.
AMD NOT SKED IS APPENDED AT TCL DUE TO MISSING OBSERVATIONS.
12
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 40% THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THIS
WEEKEND. WHILE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW FOR NOW,
INCREASING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PUSH THESE CONCERNS UP DURING
NEXT WEEK IF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOES NOT OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 92 70 88 69 / 50 70 90 30
ANNISTON 89 71 86 70 / 60 60 90 40
BIRMINGHAM 90 71 88 72 / 70 60 90 30
TUSCALOOSA 90 71 91 72 / 60 50 80 20
CALERA 89 71 88 71 / 70 70 90 40
AUBURN 87 71 86 71 / 70 40 80 50
MONTGOMERY 89 71 90 71 / 60 50 80 40
TROY 89 70 91 70 / 70 40 80 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...12
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