161
FXUS64 KBMX 201143
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
643 AM CDT SAT APR 20 2019
UPDATE
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING, WE WILL SEE
THE CLEARING LINE LINE REACH THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY SUNRISE AND
THEN GET TO THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY 9 AM, WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
RAIN IN THE FAR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHEAST WITH LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
THEREAFTER, CLEAR SKIES AND A COOL OVERNIGHT PERIOD ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHEAST AND
COOLER LOCATIONS, WITH LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.
16
LONG TERM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY PREVIOUSLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LAST
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MAKING ITS EXIT OFF THE EAST COAST
BY SUNDAY MORNING. UPSTREAM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERTAKE
MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AS A RESULT, WITH AN ACCOMPANYING ~1020 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS PERIOD
OF STABLE WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST INTO MID-WEEK WITH A GENERAL
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE HIGH. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE A NOTICABLE RETURN BY TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. AS A RESULT, WARM TEMPERATURES & INCREASING
DEWPOINTS WILL SIGNAL THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE, A COMPLEX JET STREAM FEATURING A
SPLIT-FLOW CONFIGURATION SETS UP ACROSS THE CONUS. BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND INTO MID-WEEK. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S, WITH
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE HELD OFF
ON UPPER 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AS EFFECTS FROM THE PROGGED SHORTWAVE MAY
STAVE OFF WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND
HEIGHT FALLS. ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THINGS, MONDAY MORNING MIGHT
BE CHILLY FOR SOME AS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED TO START
OFF THE WORK WEEK, THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY UNDER
SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. NO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES ARE
FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE UPCOMING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CERTAINLY HAVE SOME SORT OF
IMPACT ON WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AS EXPECTED, A
BROAD INCREASE IN THETA-E FIELDS DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH WITH
ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC ASCENT FAVORS INCREASING POPS FOR MANY ACROSS
THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER, VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE STILL EXISTS, THUS WITH MANY OTHER
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS PERIOD. WITH ANY QUALITY
MOISTURE RETURN AND AFTERNOON HEATING THURSDAY, A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS GIVEN MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES (20-30 KTS 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR) FROM THE UPSTREAM TROUGH/MID-LEVEL JET MAX. SINCE EXACT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF MOISTURE RETURN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
DICTATE WHERE THESE BETTER CHANCES WILL RESIDE, HAVE BROAD BRUSHED A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA GIVEN CURRENT UNCERTAINTIES.
TAKING CURRENT DATA AT FACE VALUE WOULD SUGGEST AREAS ACROSS THE
WEST STAND A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING A THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH BETTER AREA-WIDE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DUE TO CURRENT PROGGED SOUTHWARD POSITIONING
OF THE TROUGH HOWEVER, MOST CONVECTION MAY REMAIN ALONG THE GULF
COAST WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL JET AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS
LIKELY. THIS SCENARIO USUALLY KEEPS INLAND AREAS MORE STABLE FROM
RESULTANT DOWN-SHEAR CLOUD COVER & LIMITED INSTABILITY. THOUGH RAIN
SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS FORECAST UNTIL A
BETTER AND/OR CONSISTENT SIGNAL APPEARS, WHICH IS NOT THE CASE
CURRENTLY.
40/SIZEMORE
AVIATION
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
THERE IS SOME IMPROVEMENT OUT THERE ALREADY. TCL/BHM/EET/AND MGM
HAVE ALREADY GONE TO VFR AND WILL LIKELY GET TO ANB/ASN BY 15Z
AND TOI BY 14Z. MAY STAY CLOUDY AT ANB A LITTLE LONGER BUT LOOK
FOR GENERALLY VFR THERE AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TODAY BUT
WILL CALM AFTER 00Z.
16
FIRE WEATHER
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS.
20-FOOT WINDS LOOK TO AVERAGE AROUND 8-13 KNOTS. PERIODS OF MIST
AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THE LATE MORNING
WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WEST-TO-EAST THIS AFTERNOON, HOLDING
ON LONGEST ACROSS THE EAST/NORTHEAST ALABAMA. DRIER AIR WITH RH
VALUES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VALUES IN THE
30S AREA-WIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 57 40 75 47 80 / 60 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 58 40 76 48 81 / 50 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 62 44 78 51 82 / 20 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 66 41 78 50 81 / 10 0 0 0 0
CALERA 63 42 76 50 80 / 10 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 60 43 74 50 80 / 20 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 66 42 77 50 82 / 10 0 0 0 0
TROY 65 44 77 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/
NONE.
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