693
FXUS64 KBMX 141743
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1243 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE SOME COMMUNITIES ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA SEE THEIR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
THE BULK OF THE FORECAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL PREDOMINANTLY
BE DICTATED BY VARIOUS STAGES OF RIDGING, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. A STOUT SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOW AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS SLOWLY RISING. DURING THIS TIME, UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN OFF THE EAST COAST, AIDING IN THAT
AFOREMENTIONED CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, MORE
THAN A FEW LOCATIONS WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER-80S,
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN OUR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAYS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.
OFF TO OUR WEST HOWEVER, A VERY STOUT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL AND UPPER-PLAINS, GETTING
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. FOR US LOCALLY, THIS
TROUGH WON'T HAVE ANY MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT LEAST. HERE, A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AND COLD
FRONT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO WORK EAST, PIVOTING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. GIVEN THIS FAR NORTH TRACK, VERY LITTLE IS
ANTICIPATED FROM A RAINFALL STANDPOINT FOR US, BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THIS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
DOESN'T LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE PROSPECTS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN VERY
LIMITED EVEN INTO THE 7-10 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
DUE TO A SURFACE RIDGE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20 TO LOWER 30 PERCENT
RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
EVEN AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION, MINRH
VALUES WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE LOW 40-50% RANGE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK. WHILE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON OVERALL COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS. GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 43 80 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 46 80 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 50 82 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 50 82 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 49 82 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 52 79 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 49 81 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 49 81 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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