093
FXUS64 KBMX 062308
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
508 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 507 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
- LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, THEN THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR LOWS REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGING EXTENDING FROM OVER
SOUTH TEXAS NORTHWEST TO OVER WESTERN MONTANA, RESULTING IN A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FOUND WELL NORTH
AND FAR EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
MAXIMIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR EAST TO THE
UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 7-14 MPH.
TONIGHT.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW INFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WANE OVERNIGHT
AS AMPLIFIED RIDGING BUILDS FURTHER EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING AS VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EMERGES
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST
AREAWIDE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 20S FAR NORTH AND IN
THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS FAR EAST TO READINGS IN THE MID 30S
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTH FROM 6-12 MPH.
SATURDAY.
BROAD RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY WITH TIME AS IT CONTINUES
TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY WHILE A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY, CONTINUED TO BE
FORCED SOUTHWARD TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SKIES WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND
EAST TO MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 22 AND U.S.
HIGHWAY 280 CORRIDORS WHILE READINGS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE NORTH AT 6-12 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT.
BROAD RIDGING WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER MUCH EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS
EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO NEAR KANSAS CITY, MO. WHILE A CLOSED LOW
SLOWLY APPROACHES CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. EXPECT FAIR
SKIES AREAWIDE WITH LOWS FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTHEAST AND FAR EAST
TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST
AT 3-6 MPH.
SUNDAY.
THE RIDGING CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY
THROUGH LATE WEEKEND WHILE THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO READINGS IN THE MID 60S FAR SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SPEED FROM 5-10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT.
BROAD RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH
LIMITED AMPLIFICATION IN AMPLITUDE NOTED OVER WEST TEXAS AND NEW
MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING NORTHWEST MEXICO.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. EXPECT A FEW
MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO
READINGS IN THE LOW 40S FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS FROM 2-4 MPH.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE LONG-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE THE RIDGING
BREAKING DOWN TO OUR WEST AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS INTO A TROUGH AS
IT MIGRATES EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK. FURTHER
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL OCCUR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BEING LOW SOUTHEAST TO MEDIUM NORTHWEST, FOLLOWED BY LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.
05
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 507 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY ON TUESDAY. RH MINIMUMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40% SOUTH AND EAST TO NEAR
50% NORTH AND WEST. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING EVEN DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RH MINIMUMS SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30% FAR EAST TO NEAR 40% WEST. THE RH
VALUES SATURDAY NIGHT ONLY LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50% RANGE
ACROSS THIS AREA, FOLLOWED BY RH MINIMUMS ON SUNDAY FROM THE LOW
TO MID 20% RANGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TO READINGS
IN THE 30% RANGE FAR WEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 29 49 22 58 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 30 49 22 58 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 31 50 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 32 53 27 61 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 30 52 25 61 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 31 53 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 33 55 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 35 56 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION.../44/
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