406
FXUS64 KBMX 202344
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
644 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
- CRITICALLY DRY FUELS, LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY, AND PERIODIC BREEZES
WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND SHOULD OFFER A FEW DAYS' WORTH OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A 500 MB RIDGE
AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. JUST AHEAD OF IT, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHOWN TO SKIRT ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM MID TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE
ACROSS OUR AREA FROM SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, OFFERING PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR DEW POINTS
RISING INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 60S, YIELDING WEAK TO PERHAPS MODERATE
INSTABILITY + BOUTS OF INCREASED/VEERING FLOW ALOFT PER GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLES. CURRENTLY, THE PRIMARY SIGNAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS TO OUR WEST; HOWEVER, SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
CONFIGURATION AND STORM TRACK COULD INVOLVE OUR AREA IN SOME
FASHION AT SOME POINT. THIS IS JUST SOMETHING TO MONITOR. IN THE
LEAST, WE'LL HAVE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH-NEEDED RAIN.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR TAFS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SURFACE
RIDGING IN CONTROL WITH LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
PATCHY RIVER FOG. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT IT COULD IMPACT
TCL VSBYS IN THE 6-13Z TIME FRAME, BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
NOTE: SPRING SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE TAF FOR KASN IS NOW BEING ISSUED
AND WILL RUN THROUGH 04/29 18Z.
08
FIRE WEATHER
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITICAL VALUES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORTUNATELY, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
CHECK. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND AND LOOK TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 44 81 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 47 81 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 52 82 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 49 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 49 83 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 52 81 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 49 83 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 49 82 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...08
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