491
FXUS64 KBMX 041116
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
616 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
- A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN
EFFECT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THREATS INCLUDE
ISOLATED, BRIEF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- VERY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING, WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING 2+ INCHES OF RAIN DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 48-HOURS OF
THE FORECAST, RESULTING IN LIMITED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO RISE, CLIMBING A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY, BEFORE SETTLING INTO THE UPPER-70S AND 80S BY
WEDNESDAY AS WELL . HOWEVER, BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF WEDNESDAY,
A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN WORKING CLOSER TO THE REGION,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR OUR NEXT ROUND OF OVERNIGHT HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION, PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAIN
HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER. BULK SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THE REGION ARE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT FOR DAMAGING WINDS, AND STOUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, FORECAST INSTABILITY
VALUES ARE THE MAIN QUESTION MARK RIGHT NOW, AS SOME EVENING
GUIDANCE IS FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHERS. VALUES CURRENTLY
RANGE FROM 500 J/KG TO 1500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY. EACH OF THESE
SCENARIOS WOULD RESULT IN VASTLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR OUR
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT . ANOTHER CAVEAT IS THE CAPPING
INVERSION, WHICH SOME MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE HOLDS ONTO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS WOULD ULTIMATELY SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, LIMITING OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. RIGHT NOW, THERE
STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO MANY VARIABLES IN PLACE TO FULLY COMMIT
TO A TIME OR THREAT, AND CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS CURRENTLY VERY LOW.
ONE THING WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN RIGHT NOW IS ANOTHER GOOD
SOAKING OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. GIVEN HOW THIS RAINFALL WILL BE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE, THESE VALUES ARE CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DEPENDING ON RAINFALL RATES, BUT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
2.5 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. IN GENERAL, MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE AREA CAN EXPECT TO SEE 1.5+ INCHES OF RAIN, WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MORE THAN A FEW 2+ INCH LOCATIONS.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD WORK THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY, SETTLING SOMEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF US. IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE NBM IS HOLDING ONTO POPS A LITTLE BIT LONGER THAN IT
SHOULD GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY START TO ALIGN HERE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND WILL BE
WORTH MONITORING IF YOU HAVE WEEKEND PLANS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR A
PLEASANT START TO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS SETTLING INTO THE LOW-
80S BY SUNDAY.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
DUE TO A HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR TCL DUE TO INTERMITTENT
OBSERVATIONS.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL STAY BETWEEN 30-40% THROUGH TUESDAY, AS A
SURFACE RIDGE KEEPS DRY AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THESE VALUES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE NEXT
ORGANIZED SYSTEM WORKS INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING 1+ INCHES OF RAIN. GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL, AND THE UPCOMING RAINFALL, THIS SHOULD KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS LIMITED GIVEN THE WET FUELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 78 49 79 59 / 0 0 10 20
ANNISTON 78 52 79 61 / 0 0 0 20
BIRMINGHAM 79 55 79 63 / 0 0 0 20
TUSCALOOSA 80 54 81 63 / 0 0 0 20
CALERA 80 52 81 62 / 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 78 53 80 62 / 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 80 50 82 61 / 0 0 0 10
TROY 78 50 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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