222
FXUS64 KBMX 181113
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
513 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 512 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 954 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT,
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF LOWER CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND LOW
CHANCES (15-20%) FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
LOOK FOR MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES (60-70%). THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL AL FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AND PUSHES
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREAS ON SUNDAY. THIS
SETS UP FOR A RAINY WEEKEND FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AL. WE'LL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY, BUT
THE OVERALL DYNAMICS AREN'T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT.
AFTER THE SYSTEM EXITS OUR AREA SUNDAY, COOLER AND DRIER AIR BUILDS
IN ACROSS CENTRAL AL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE RANGES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. MGM AND AUO ALSO HAVE INTERMITTENT
LOWERED VIS AND FOG, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 14-15Z. ALL
SITES SHOULD CLIMB INTO VFR CIGS BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND MVFR CONDITIONS BUILDING IN ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE ARE TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
12
FIRE WEATHER
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AL, WHICH MAY
DELAY MIXING AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
IN THE REGION, MINRHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY, INCREASING TO MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL
AL AND STALLS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 57 78 59 / 20 10 20 80
ANNISTON 71 58 78 61 / 20 10 30 80
BIRMINGHAM 71 60 78 61 / 20 10 20 80
TUSCALOOSA 74 59 80 60 / 20 10 10 70
CALERA 75 58 80 61 / 20 10 20 80
AUBURN 71 60 79 65 / 10 20 30 80
MONTGOMERY 75 59 82 65 / 10 20 20 70
TROY 74 59 82 65 / 10 20 30 80
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...12
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