128
FXUS64 KBMX 050742
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
242 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A COUPLE OF KEY FEATURES WILL BE AT PLAY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FIRST, A SLOW-MOVING AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME BROAD
LIFT FOR THE AREA BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SECOND, A REMNANT MCV
FROM A DECAYING MCS IN THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE MID-MS
VALLEY AND PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR INITIATING CONVECTION BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK THE SLOW-MOVING TROUGH SHIFTS
OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BUT REMAINS JUST TO THE
NORTH THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
WHICH IS AROUND 30-40% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, DECREASING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO ALSO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
AND LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VERY FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. I HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S FOR TSRA FROM 21Z - 00Z
TOMORROW. THIS COULD LINGER THROUGH 03Z, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAIN LOW, AS WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, AND HUMIDITY LEVELS STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 93 72 90 72 / 50 30 70 30
ANNISTON 93 73 89 73 / 50 30 70 40
BIRMINGHAM 93 74 90 74 / 50 40 70 30
TUSCALOOSA 93 74 90 74 / 50 30 70 20
CALERA 96 73 92 73 / 50 40 70 40
AUBURN 93 74 90 74 / 40 20 60 40
MONTGOMERY 94 74 91 74 / 50 30 70 40
TROY 93 73 91 73 / 40 20 60 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...25/OWEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page