518
FXUS64 KBMX 090629
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
129 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY MORNING FROM 6AM TO 11AM FOR THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE. THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL.
- ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THREATS
INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THIS EVENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THE
SATELLITE PICTURE ONCE AGAIN HAS CIRRUS ACROSS ALABAMA, BUT
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS ALSO CONFIRM LOW STRATUS FORMING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS TO OUR WEST IN MISSISSIPPI
APPROACHING THE STATE LINE. THIS CONVECTION IS THANKS TO AN
OPENING UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE OVER WEST TEXAS. SHOWERS, AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES, WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE
WEAKENING WAVE MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE WAVE EXITS. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD
HOLD OFF TILL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS
OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. WHILE GUIDANCE IS LOOKING
LESS CONVINCING IN REGARDS TO INSTABILITY, THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH WITH FRONTAL FORCING FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THREATS
INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. MONDAY MORNING GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH, BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LAG BEHIND DURING THE DAY UNTIL THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES PAST ALABAMA. CONDITIONS CLEAR AND COOL DURING MONDAY NIGHT
WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
08
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH COVERAGE OF SHRA INCREASING AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS C AL. SOME TS WILL BE MIXED IN AT TIMES. 06Z-18Z
WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA. IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL,
LAGGING ABOUT 2-3 HOURS BEHIND THE MVFR. LOWER VSBYS WILL BE
PRESENT AT TIMES WITH ANY HEAVIER CONVECTION. IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WHILE THE WORST OF THE
CONVECTION IS AROUND. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE CONVECTION. TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON, BHM AND TCL MAY GO VFR FOR A FEW HOURS BUT STAY OVC
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
08
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HELP KEEP MIN RH
VALUES GENERALLY ABOVE 50%. DRIER AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH MIN RH VALUES FALLING TO 30-40% BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 78 55 82 57 / 20 0 20 40
ANNISTON 77 57 82 59 / 30 10 20 30
BIRMINGHAM 79 60 83 62 / 20 10 20 40
TUSCALOOSA 79 60 84 61 / 40 10 20 50
CALERA 79 59 84 61 / 50 10 20 50
AUBURN 76 62 81 63 / 80 10 20 40
MONTGOMERY 77 61 82 62 / 80 20 20 50
TROY 77 62 82 62 / 80 30 40 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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