116
FXUS64 KBMX 211111
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
611 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIMITED RAIN, GENERALLY LESS THAN A
HALF-INCH, SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PROVIDING
MINIMAL RELIEF FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
- SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 15-20 DEGREES, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S, BEFORE A GRADUAL REBOUND TO THE LOW-80S BY
WEDNESDAY.
- CRITICALLY DRY FUELS, STRONG WINDS, AND LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ELEVATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
LOOK FOR QUIET WEATHER, BUT AN OVERALL SLOW WARMING TREND OVER
THE COUPLE OF DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF ERN
CONUS WITH A CENTER SITUATED FROM KY/VA TO QUEBEC. THE NRN HALF
OF CONUS' RIDGING WILL BE PINCHED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TUE
MOVING NEWD OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
RIDGING SLIDING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND EXTENDING BACK INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, LOOK FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE NW FLOW TUE INTO WED. HOWEVER, WITH RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND LIMITED OVERALL MOISTURE, ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE.
BETTER MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MORE ONSHORE FLOW, EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND CONTINUED
UPPER IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. LOOK FOR US TO
TRANSITION INTO A WETTER PATTERN FOR FRI AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED AS ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
REGION. IT WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS C AL BEFORE MOVING BACK NWD WITH
OUR UPPER FLOW ACROSS AL BECOMING MORE ZONAL THAN NW FOR SAT/SUN.
08
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A 500 MB RIDGE
AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. JUST AHEAD OF IT, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHOWN TO SKIRT ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM MID TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE
ACROSS OUR AREA FROM SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, OFFERING PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR DEW POINTS
RISING INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 60S, YIELDING WEAK TO PERHAPS MODERATE
INSTABILITY + BOUTS OF INCREASED/VEERING FLOW ALOFT PER GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLES. CURRENTLY, THE PRIMARY SIGNAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS TO OUR WEST; HOWEVER, SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
CONFIGURATION AND STORM TRACK COULD INVOLVE OUR AREA IN SOME
FASHION AT SOME POINT. THIS IS JUST SOMETHING TO MONITOR. IN THE
LEAST, WE'LL HAVE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH-NEEDED RAIN.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
PATCHY RIVER FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. AS
A RESULT, INTRODUCED A BRIEF MVFR VIS TEMPO GROUP AT TCL THROUGH
15Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
NOTE: SPRING SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE TAF FOR KASN IS NOW BEING ISSUED
AND WILL RUN THROUGH 04/29 18Z.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITICAL VALUES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORTUNATELY, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
CHECK. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND AND LOOK TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 81 50 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 81 53 82 52 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 82 58 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 82 55 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 83 55 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 81 57 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 83 57 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 82 55 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08/89
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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