106
FXUS64 KBMX 181109
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
609 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
- HEAT: MAJOR HEATRISK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORKWEEK. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 103 TO 109
DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20. MORE
ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND, AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE FORECAST WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SLIDE WEST. WHILE
THIS WON'T HAVE AN IMMEDIATE EFFECT ON OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS
TEMPERATURES, IT WILL ALLOW FOR THE REGION TO COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY START TO DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO HERE AND THERE, WITH
DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY DECREASING AS WELL. EXPECT PORTIONS OF THE
REGION TO REMAIN IN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE HEAT INDEX VALUES DROP ONCE MORE INTO FRIDAY.
IT'S DURING THIS TIMEFRAME THAT A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES SHOULD
START TO CLIP THIS REGION, AS THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. MORE ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY, AND INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW
REGARDING OVERALL COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WITH THAT BEING
SAID, THIS DEEPENING TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY AIR TO FILTER
BACK INTO THE REGION, DROPPING OUR PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID-90S, AND
WILL LIKELY STAY HERE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM MIDDAY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH BEST
CHANCES SOUTHWEST, BUT POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
TCL AND MGM FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
05
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, WITH MINRH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
35 TO 45 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, BUT
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IF RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS PERSIST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 94 69 97 72 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 93 69 95 71 / 0 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 93 73 96 74 / 10 20 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 98 75 99 75 / 20 20 10 10
CALERA 95 73 97 73 / 10 20 0 0
AUBURN 92 73 92 74 / 10 10 0 0
MONTGOMERY 99 75 99 74 / 20 20 10 0
TROY 98 74 97 72 / 30 20 20 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-
GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-
PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...05
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