219
FXUS64 KBMX 070532
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1232 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
ONGOING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER
THROUGH ROUGHLY 1 AM BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING FOR THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN
OUTFLOW THAT WAS MOVING WEST, WHILE THE MAIN UPPER FLOW IS TO THE
EAST. FURTHER WEST IN MS, A LARGE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
NEAR THE I-55 CORRIDOR, THE OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO GET OUT AHEAD
OF THE ACTIVITY, AND MAIN SUPPORT FROM A WEAK TROUGH. WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE A TREND OF LESS COVERAGE AS THE OUTFLOW APPROACHES
WESTERN AL OVERNIGHT
THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY HAS ALMOST COMPLETED ITS
TRANSITION INTO A CLOSED LOW, WHICH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL EVENTUALLY BE PUSHED OUT BY A
SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG A LARGER- SCALE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.
CONSEQUENTLY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHER- THAN- NORMAL COVERAGE DUE
TO THE LOW PROVIDING A MORE DEFINED FOCUS THAN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERNS. WHILE MOST ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON,
SOME STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS
THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WEAKENS. THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA,
RETURNING TO THE HIT-OR-MISS VARIETY CHARACTERISTIC OF A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME REGIME.
OVER THE WEEKEND, A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW TO THE
REGION. WHILE SPECIFIC TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN UNCERTAIN,
EXPECT A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN TO CONTINUE WITH DAILY CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO BETTER
COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH, WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
CONVECTIVE INTERACTIONS COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS, RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
EXPECT SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A LIMITED PERIOD OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION IS EXPECTED AT TCL/EET/MGM TOWARD SUNRISE
TUESDAY, OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
MORNING. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT ALL SITES GENERALLY FROM
18Z TO 00Z.
05
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH THIS ACTIVITY
RESEMBLING THE USUAL, DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WE'RE USED TO
SEEING IN THE SUMMER. GIVEN THE HIGHER MINRH VALUES, AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN
LITTLE TO NONE FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 92 71 91 72 / 30 30 40 30
ANNISTON 92 72 91 73 / 20 20 20 20
BIRMINGHAM 93 73 91 74 / 30 30 40 30
TUSCALOOSA 92 73 91 74 / 30 30 40 20
CALERA 94 73 94 73 / 20 30 30 20
AUBURN 92 74 91 74 / 30 20 20 20
MONTGOMERY 94 74 93 75 / 30 20 20 20
TROY 93 73 93 74 / 30 20 20 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page