039
FXUS64 KBMX 141128
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
628 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN SPINNING ACROSS THE REGION, AS
THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE WEST. THIS
MOVEMENT SHOULD SPEED UP INTO WEDNESDAY, AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE EAST COAST. AS SUCH, ORGANIZED
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE TRANSITION TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION
BY THURSDAY.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS SPLIT REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THERE
IS STARTING TO BE A CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT THE RIDGE MAY BE
SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED BY A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST.
WHILE TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL STILL BE ON THE
RISE, THIS SCENARIO WOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER-80S
AND LOW-90S. THIS COMPARED TO THE MID-90S IF THE RIDGE WERE ABLE
TO ESTABLISH ITSELF INSTEAD. THIS TROUGH WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
COMPARED TO SCATTERED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.
REGARDLESS, LOOK FOR THESE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST IN SOME CAPACITY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING EET, TCL, AND BHM, RESULTING IN
IFR CEILINGS. MVFR TO IFR VIS IS BEING OBSERVED AT BHM AND EET AS
WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS BY MID
MORNING. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAINTAINED TEMPO
FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE FOR TSRA AT ALL SITES AFTER 20Z. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IFR CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN AT NEARLY ALL SITES AFTER 7Z
TOMORROW MORNING.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
12
FIRE WEATHER
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK, KEEPING MINRH
VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED AS A WEAK SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE REGION, PRECLUDING
ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 84 69 87 70 / 80 40 70 20
ANNISTON 83 70 86 70 / 80 40 70 20
BIRMINGHAM 83 70 86 71 / 80 40 60 20
TUSCALOOSA 83 70 87 71 / 90 50 60 10
CALERA 84 70 88 70 / 90 50 50 10
AUBURN 83 71 86 72 / 70 50 40 10
MONTGOMERY 85 70 88 71 / 80 50 40 10
TROY 85 68 88 70 / 70 30 30 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...12
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