601
FXUS64 KBMX 080542
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1242 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF NORMAL SUMMERTIME HAZARDS SUCH
AS GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK: A VERY STRONG AND ELONGATED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTER OF THE U.S.
BY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THE REGION REMAINS INFLUENCED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, WHICH
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SYNOPTIC LIFT. THIS SYSTEM, INTERACTING WITH
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, WILL DRIVE THE INCREASE IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES, SOME STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECTED HAZARDS INCLUDE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, HEAVY TROPICAL DOWNPOURS, AND GUSTY WINDS OF 20-
30 MPH. PERSISTENT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE AREA, KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-90S
AND HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES, CONSISTENT WITH THE
BROADER PATTERN OF DANGEROUS HEAT PERSISTING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN,
LEADING TO A DECREASE IN OVERALL FORCING AND STORM COVERAGE. BY
FRIDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND BECOME CONFINED PRIMARILY
TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, RETURNING TO THE TYPICAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE REGIME. HEAT
INDICES WILL ALSO INCREASE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH READINGS
POSSIBLY REACHING 105 DEGREES, WHICH MAY APPROACH OR MEET HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS ON SUNDAY AS AN ANOMALOUS 500 MB RIDGE
EXPANDS ACROSS THE CONUS, EVENTUALLY PUSHING A RARE JULY SURFACE
FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY, IN TANDEM WITH MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, IS
FORECAST TO TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
REMAINING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MODEL
CONFIDENCE DECREASES DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR ABOVE-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING TOWARDS AND AROUND KMGM THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH A TEMPO IN FOR IMPACTS AT KMGM SITE.
OTHERWISE, ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CAUSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE EARLY MORNING. DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMGM AND KAUO. LEFT
MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDER OUT OF THESE TWO TAF SITES FOR NOW
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY CONVECTION MOVING
OVER THE TAF SITE.
NOTE: ADDED AMD NOT SKED FOR TCL FOR A COMMUNICATION ISSUE THIS
AFTERNOON.
24
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH THIS ACTIVITY
RESEMBLING THE USUAL, DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WE'RE USED TO
SEEING IN THE SUMMER. GIVEN THE HIGHER MINRH VALUES, AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN
LITTLE TO NONE FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 91 72 91 72 / 50 40 50 30
ANNISTON 91 73 90 73 / 40 30 50 30
BIRMINGHAM 92 74 92 74 / 40 30 50 20
TUSCALOOSA 91 73 92 74 / 40 20 40 20
CALERA 94 73 94 74 / 40 20 50 20
AUBURN 91 74 91 74 / 20 20 40 20
MONTGOMERY 94 75 93 75 / 20 20 50 20
TROY 93 74 92 74 / 20 20 40 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...24
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