614
FXUS64 KBMX 281738
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1238 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- DUE TO DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
A LOW-AMPLITUDE OR QUAISI-ZONAL 500 MB PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
IN TRANSITION MODE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. CURRENTLY, A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS, AND A TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS IS
PRODUCING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND AN
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER QUICKLY SHIFTS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. TODAY'S
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED DOWN 1-2 DEGREES BELOW NBM
DUE TO COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
EASTWARD OVER THE GULF ON MONDAY, LEADING TO 700-500 MB FLOW
BECOMING WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA, A WIDE SWATH
OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND DRIVE GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS TRANSITION BEGINS ON SUNDAY
MORNING, A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP DUE TO ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE 925-850MB LAYER. AS A
RESULT, FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WERE REDUCED BELOW
NBM GUIDANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW, AND THE ATTENDANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW, WILL TRAVERSE
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS DURING THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD AS A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
THE MID-SOUTH REGION. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA
OF RESPONSIBILITY, BUT CYCLONICALLY-CURVED 500 MB FLOW AND WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A DECK
OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD AROUND
12Z SUNDAY, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND 3500-4500 FT AGL. WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY AFTER 00Z.
87/GRANTHAM
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO 20-25 PERCENT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
MIN RHS HOVERING IN THE 35-50% RANGE. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE, A LOW CLOUD DECK WITH CEILINGS OF 3000-4000 FT AGL
SHOULD DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GULF MOISTURE TO
THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, KEEPING RH VALUES ELEVATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 64 40 67 50 / 0 0 10 0
ANNISTON 67 42 67 53 / 0 0 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 66 47 68 55 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 67 45 72 53 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 67 45 68 53 / 0 0 10 0
AUBURN 68 46 65 55 / 0 0 10 0
MONTGOMERY 70 48 68 55 / 0 0 10 0
TROY 71 49 67 55 / 0 0 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER.
DISCUSSION...87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION...87/GRANTHAM
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