344
FXUS64 KBMX 070616
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
116 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST STARTING THIS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK UP THIS WEEK WITH READINGS
FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
NOTHING MAJOR HAS REALLY CHANGED REGARDING THE OVERALL THINKING
WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH THE REGION STARTING THIS MORNING,
GREATLY INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN OUR NW ZONES, WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.
BY TUESDAY, THE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR ALL OF
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL FINALLY TREK INTO THE MIDWEST,
TRANSITIONING INTO A DEEPER TROUGH. FROM HERE, GUIDANCE IS STILL
SPLIT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THIS WEAK TROUGH. SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE TROUGH LINGERING JUST TO OUR EAST, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES IN OUR EAST ZONES INTO THE WEEKEND. OTHER
GUIDANCE QUICKLY BUILDS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS, PUSHING
THE TROUGH FARTHER TO THE EAST. THIS WOULD KEEP RAIN IN THE
FORECAST, BUT LIMIT IT TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SCATTERED AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY. WITH THAT BEING SAID, BOTH OF THESE SOLUTIONS INVOLVE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR WEST, RESULTING IN A STEADY CLIMB IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEW WORKWEEK. BY FRIDAY, MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW-90S, WITH LOW-
90S EXPECTED INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
/44/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING, LOW CEILINGS ARE ALSO
SPREADING INLAND. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WE WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SUPPORTED BY A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SOME FORM OF REDUCED
AVIATION CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD IN ADDITION TO
TSRA CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THAT, MINRH
VALUES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE 50% BY SUNDAY, AND LINGER HERE OR
HIGHER FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GIVEN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
AND HIGH MINRH VALUES, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LITTLE TO
NONE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 80 69 82 68 / 90 60 80 40
ANNISTON 80 69 81 68 / 80 60 80 40
BIRMINGHAM 80 70 82 69 / 90 50 60 20
TUSCALOOSA 83 72 84 71 / 90 40 50 10
CALERA 82 70 84 69 / 90 50 60 10
AUBURN 82 70 83 70 / 50 30 40 20
MONTGOMERY 83 70 85 70 / 80 30 40 10
TROY 84 70 86 70 / 70 20 20 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
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