129
FXUS64 KBMX 122323
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
623 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK, WITH
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY NEXT SATURDAY, BUT HOW MUCH
COOLER REMAINS UNCERTAIN. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE NORTHEAST TO BECOME CENTERED
ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY IN THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. TOWARD THE SURFACE, ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN TENNESSEE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETAIN ITS ELONGATED
STATE AS IT BECOMES POSITIONED FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST NORTHEAST ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FROM 5-10
MPH DURING THE DAY WITH NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE EACH DAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST
BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S EAST TO THE LOW 90S
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THESE READINGS MAY RIVAL THE RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES PROVIDED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE MOST ACROSS THE WEST
WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S EAST TO THE LOW 60S WEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME CENTERED FURTHER EAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK, BECOMING CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. A CLOSED LOW WILL DIG SOUTH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES BEFORE SHEARING OUT ON THURSDAY OVER
COLORADO BEFORE A MORE POTENT THROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY
WHILE SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWIFTLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE STATE BY SATURDAY MORNING. LIMITED RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RECOVERY FROM THE PRESENTLY DRY
AIRMASS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT LOCALLY AS
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 60S FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TO READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S FAR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE MID 40S ALL BUT FAR SOUTH WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW 50S ON SUNDAY MORNING THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
05
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS.WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT,
INCREASING TO 4-6KTS DURING THE DAY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY RIVER FOG AT TCL AND MGM FOR A FEW
HOUR BEFORE SUNRISE, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PROBABILITY IS
MUCH LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT, SO I WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.
NOTE: WILL CONTINUE WITH AMD NOT SKED AT AUO DUE TO MISSING
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. MINRHS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30-40% RANGE
EACH AFTERNOON AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S WITH THE
DRY AIR MASS. HOWEVER, WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVERHEAD,
WE'RE EXPECTING MOSTLY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MON OCT. 12:
KBHM: 91/1963
KEET: 86/2014
KANB: 88/1963
KTCL: 92/1963
KMGM: 91/2017
TUE OCT. 13:
KBHM: 89/1953
KEET: 89/2017
KANB: 90/1954
KTCL: 90/1963
WED OCT. 14:
KBHM: 89/1984
KEET: 89/2016
KANB: 88/1975
KTCL: 90/1962
KMGM: 91/1883
THU OCT. 15:
KBHM: 90/1897
KEET: 92/2025
KANB: 87/1975
KTCL: 91/1962
KMGM: 92/1881
FRI OCT. 16:
KBHM: 90/1897
KEET: 90/2025
KANB: 87/1965
KTCL: 90/1962
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 56 88 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 59 86 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 61 88 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 59 91 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 59 89 60 90 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 62 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 60 88 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 59 88 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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