251
FXUS64 KBMX 202046
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
346 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER: THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
OUR UPPER RIDGE OF LATE IS SITUATED FROM WRN TN SWWD TO MEXICO.
IT IS CONTINUING TO DETERIORATE AS A CLOSED LOW OVER FLORIDA
PUSHES WESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AT THE SAME TIME,
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES LATE BY TUESDAY. LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE DAILY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS. ON TUESDAY, GUIDANCE WEAKENS/DETERIORATES THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE COAST. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY, BUT
INSTEAD WILL BE FOCUSING ON ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BECOME
FAVORABLE WITH A PATTERN SHIFT TAKING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
AND BRINGING MUCH WELCOME MORE "NORMAL" TEMPERATURE READINGS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW 50S IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
08
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONE
EXCEPTION. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST WILL ALLOW
FOR A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO PIN POINT FOR TAF INCLUSION ATTM.
WILL MONITOR FOR ANY NEEDED AMENDMENTS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR FAIR
WEATHER VFR CUMULUS WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. THE EXCEPTION TO
VFR IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR FOG NEAR AUO TOWARD SUNRISE. I
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR FOG. WIDESPREAD FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.
08
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH
COMPOUNDING EFFECTS FROM INTENSIFYING DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY
ARISE. DAILY MINRH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40%. LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 71 95 69 93 / 30 30 40 60
ANNISTON 70 93 70 92 / 30 30 30 50
BIRMINGHAM 73 95 72 93 / 30 30 20 50
TUSCALOOSA 72 98 72 96 / 30 30 20 40
CALERA 71 95 70 94 / 20 30 30 40
AUBURN 71 92 71 91 / 20 20 30 30
MONTGOMERY 72 94 72 94 / 20 20 30 20
TROY 70 93 70 94 / 20 10 30 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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