776
FXUS64 KBMX 041902
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
202 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
- A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVELS 1 TO 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THREATS INCLUDE ISOLATED, BRIEF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
- VERY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING, WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING 2 PLUS INCHES OF RAIN DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
OUR CURRENT SATELLITE PICTURE IS INDICATING ONLY CIRRUS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME TIME, A SURFACE
LOW IS PRESENT ACROSS ONTARIO WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THEN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND CURVING BACK INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SHORT TERM
AND WILL BRING OUR NEXT ELEVATED CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A CLOSED LOW IS CONFINED MAINLY TO MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CONUS. THE
FLAT RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES IS WEAKENING AS ANOTHER
DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC US COAST NUDGES EASTWARD.
CLOSER TO HOME ACROSS ALABAMA, WEAK PERTURBATIONS ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WITH MAINLY CIRRUS EXPECTED AS A RESULT IN
THE SHORT TERM DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
WITH RAIN CHANCES NOT RETURNING UNTIL MIDWEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM AS OUR AIRMASS MODERATES AND THE SURFACE
RIDGE WEAKENS.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
DEEP SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM WITH A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT CHANCE (LEVEL 1 TO
2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL
QPF ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF TEXAS ON THROUGH MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AS
WELL. THE STRONGEST IN OUR AREA IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, WITH EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA (AND A FEW LOWER 70S) AND FRONTAL FORCING,
WE WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING GUIDANCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE
THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH
COOLER READINGS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE RAIN
CHANCES DO LOWER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL
KEEP THE DRIER AIR FROM INFILTRATING. LOW TO MODERATE RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AS OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THROUGH THE FLOW.
08
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US. SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY DUE TO SHIFTS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE.
AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR TCL DUE TO INTERMITTENT
OBSERVATIONS.
08
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL STAY BETWEEN 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR ALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
AS A SURFACE RIDGE KEEPS DRY AIR IN THE REGION. THESE VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM WORKS
INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING
2 PLUS INCHES OF RAIN. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL, AND THE UPCOMING
RAINFALL, THIS SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LIMITED GIVEN
THE WET FUELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 48 78 59 80 / 0 10 20 70
ANNISTON 52 80 61 82 / 0 10 10 60
BIRMINGHAM 55 79 63 81 / 0 10 10 60
TUSCALOOSA 54 82 63 84 / 0 10 10 70
CALERA 52 81 61 84 / 0 10 10 60
AUBURN 53 80 61 84 / 0 0 0 30
MONTGOMERY 51 82 61 87 / 0 0 0 30
TROY 49 81 60 87 / 0 0 0 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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