034
FXUS64 KBMX 060324
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1024 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THIS WEEK. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON MONDAY, WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW BECOMING CUT-OFF OVER THE
MID-MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS INITIAL TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL AL
DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND WILL GENERALLY BE HIGHER
COVERAGE THAN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOONS.
THE CUT-OFF LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT MOST OF THE FORCING FROM THAT LOW GENERALLY
STAYS TO OUR NORTH AS BROAD RIDGING SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS, HELPING TO SUPPRESS OVERALL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AL. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RUN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND NOT
REACH ANY CONCERNS FOR INCREASED HEAT MESSAGING. DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN
COVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE. LATE IN THE WEEK,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE MIGHT PUSH THE WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED TROUGH SOUTHWARD BY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, BUT IT'S FAR TOO SOON TO
NAIL DOWN SPECIFICS ON COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT, LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION GENERALLY AFTER 10Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH 13-15Z. MOST
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR, THOUGH SOME PREVIOUS GUIDANCE
HAD HINTED AT IFR FOR SOME OF THE SITES THAT SAW THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TODAY. AFTER THIS CLEARS THROUGH MIXING TOMORROW
MORNING, THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE VFR ASIDE FROM ANY
TEMPORARY IMPACTS DUE TO SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20Z-00Z
TOMORROW.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY EACH NIGHT. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY BECOMING MOSTLY CALM
OVERNIGHT ASIDE FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM-RELATED WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 72 89 72 91 / 30 60 20 20
ANNISTON 72 89 72 90 / 30 60 20 10
BIRMINGHAM 74 90 73 92 / 40 50 30 20
TUSCALOOSA 74 90 74 92 / 30 40 20 30
CALERA 73 93 73 94 / 40 40 30 20
AUBURN 73 89 73 91 / 40 50 20 10
MONTGOMERY 74 91 74 93 / 40 30 20 20
TROY 73 90 73 92 / 50 30 20 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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