540
FXUS64 KBMX 020516
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1216 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
- HEAT: HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S COMBINED WITH
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES
THROUGH THURSDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM
THURSDAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS: PORTIONS OF THE REGION ARE UNDER A LEVEL 1 TO 2,
OUT OF 5, RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
CONVECTION HAS TAPERED DOWN FOR THE NIGHT AND WE ARE IN A LULL IN
ACTIVITY UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS EITHER EASTERN CONUS OR THE SOUTHEAST US THROUGH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A LARGE EASTERN CONUS RIDGE IS
IN PLACE, CENTERED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND EASTERN TENNESSEE.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST TOWARD VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. BY SATURDAY, THIS WILL
RESULT IN A WEAKER AND FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. LOOK
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION AS
DISTURBANCES PROPAGATE AROUND THIS RIDGE. SOME STRONG STORMS MAY
OCCUR THURSDAY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT. ALSO, AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR
ANOTHER DAY WITH A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUING FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED
INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA IF CURRENT GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE.
AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY, GUIDANCE INDICATES A BREAK IN THE UPPER
RIDGE AS A LOW DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE ON SUNDAY FOR MEDIUM CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AND MORE COVERAGE WITH THE BEST CHANCES STILL IN THE
AFTERNOON. MEDIUM CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUE INTO
THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DIG ACROSS EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BUT LEAVE BROAD
TROUGHING SOUTHWEST INTO MUCH OF CONUS AND CONTINUED DIURNAL
CONVECTION CHANCES.
08
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
CONVECTION IS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH A FLOW FROM
EAST TO WEST THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. I HAVE A MENTION OF PROB30S OR TEMPO
(EET) FOR ALL BUT AUO. SOME IFR-MVFR LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER STORMS END WITH EAST-NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY 5-10KTS (OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION) WITH
MIXING. MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
08
FIRE WEATHER
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE MAIN AXIS OF RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THURSDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW, AS
WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 97 76 96 75 / 30 30 40 10
ANNISTON 96 75 95 75 / 30 30 30 10
BIRMINGHAM 96 77 96 77 / 30 20 40 10
TUSCALOOSA 95 77 96 76 / 20 20 30 10
CALERA 98 76 98 75 / 20 20 30 10
AUBURN 94 75 94 76 / 10 10 20 10
MONTGOMERY 95 75 96 76 / 10 10 20 0
TROY 95 73 95 74 / 10 10 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-COOSA-
DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LOWNDES-
MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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