893
FXUS64 KBMX 201850
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1250 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
- THERE IS A LOW (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
SATELLITE IS INDICATING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
SRN 1/2 OF C AL AND MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 WHERE A COLD
FRONT HAS ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH WITH VERY DRY AIR HAS MOVED INTO
THE AREA. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, WITH MAYBE A FEW TSTORMS, WILL
BE PRESENT S OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO MEANDER SOME NWD TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING, BEFORE
PUSHING COMPLETELY SEWD OUT OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW
1/5 MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SE
PORTIONS OF C AL FOR DURING THE DAY SAT INTO EARLY SAT EVENING
WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. MUCH COOLER
WEATHER WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR SUN
MORNING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS BACK BELOW
FREEZING FOR MOST FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT. LASTLY, RAIN
CHANCES RETURN AGAIN TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FOR
LATE NEXT WED.
08
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
JUST A QUICK UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE, THE MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN REMOVED FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD.
95/CASTILLO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS HAVE SHOWN UP ON THE KBMX RADAR THIS EVENING AS
GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY OUT TO OUR WEST STRETCHING TEXAS UP
INTO LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, A SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
DRAGGING A THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY SUNRISE. RAIN CHANCES
WILL RAMP UP, GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
STATE. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE CWA AND LINGERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR 2
POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
1) FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SPC HAS PLACED THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR THIS
PERIOD. A PASSING H85-H7 VORT MAX COMBINED WITH A CORRIDOR OF MUCAPE
FROM 500-700 J/KG AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED HAIL THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
2) SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) SHIFTS SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. MAIN THREATS ON SATURDAY
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, SRH VALUES DO A
SUPPORT A LOW TORNADO THREAT.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS ARE LOOKING PRETTY CHILLY
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
SITES ARE GENERALLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW MVFR CIGS MAY STILL
OCCUR BRIEFLY AT MGM/AUO. SHOWERS WILL BE OFF/ON DUE TO THE FRONT
STALLED ACROSS THE SRN 1/3 OF C AL MEANDERING SOME, AND NOT
PUSHING SWD OUT OF THE AREA TILL SUN EVENING. MVFR WILL MOVE BACK
INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 6-12Z AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NWD
BRIEFLY.
08
FIRE WEATHER
WITH A STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE, MUCH DRIER AIR HAS
FILTERED INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. MIN RHS WILL WILL
DROP DOWN TO THE 15-30% ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT, RHS WILL RANGE FROM 40-60%, WITH A
TRANSITIONAL AREA ACROSS THE MIDDLE. AT THIS TIME, WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RHS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE 50-70% RANGE ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE.
MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20-30% RANGE DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 49 69 33 49 / 60 40 20 0
ANNISTON 51 70 36 49 / 60 60 20 0
BIRMINGHAM 52 70 36 50 / 70 60 20 0
TUSCALOOSA 52 72 37 52 / 70 60 20 0
CALERA 52 73 36 52 / 60 60 20 0
AUBURN 61 73 42 52 / 50 80 50 0
MONTGOMERY 62 75 40 54 / 50 80 50 0
TROY 65 77 42 55 / 60 80 70 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08/95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...08
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page