353
FXUS64 KBMX 251048
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
548 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. SOME AREAS WILL
RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
- A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY MATERIALIZE MONDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
NO NEED TO ADJUST YOUR RADAR SCREENS, THERE IS ACTUALLY RAIN
FALLING IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA! AN MCV IS LOCATED
OVER WEST ALABAMA. PREVIOUSLY THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF ALABAMA, BUT NOW IT IS MAINLY JUST PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING. THE EARLIER BOWING SEGMENT IS NOW
PRODUCING VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING, AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. OFF
TO OUR WEST, ANOTHER MCS AND ASSOCIATED MCV IS BACK OVER THE
ARKLATEX, WITH A BAND OF STORMS CONNECTING TO THE FIRST MCV IN A
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS MCS SHOULD TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH
ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA, AS ALSO DEPICTED BY THE EXPERIMENTAL WARN ON FORECAST
SYSTEM. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS VERY LOW,
BUT AT LEAST SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE
PLACEMENT OF LINGERING BOUNDARIES AND MCVS, AS WELL AS TO WHAT
DEGREE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING INCREASES STABILITY. STILL, WITH A
MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE, EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO RE-DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. IF
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP, THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ANY MCS ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT CURRENT HREF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS ANY ACTIVITY REMAINS
WEST OF OUR AREA. FOR SUNDAY, CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST ALLOWS SOME LOWER DEW POINTS TO
FILTER IN.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT A NEUTRALLY TO NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST, WHILE A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
MOVES OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER UP THAT WAY. MEANWHILE IN
OUR AREA, WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER (EML) WILL SERVE AS A CAP OVER THE AREA. HEIGHTS WILL
BE NEUTRAL TO RISING AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. IF ANY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS REACH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, THIS
WOULD NOT BE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IN OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES WOULD BE CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THIS WOULD BE
DEPENDENT ON GETTING ENOUGH FORCING FOR ONE TO ACTUALLY DEVELOP.
SHOWERS AND STORMS DO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE LOWER, BUT A LOW-
END SEVERE THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE.
A SOMEWHAT GREATER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS ANOTHER,
WEAKER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE
FRONT FROM MONDAY'S SYSTEM STALLS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST.
INSTABILITY, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND SHEAR APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL, WHILE FORECAST HODOGRAPHS REMAIN
MORE UNCERTAIN REGARDING ANY TORNADO THREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER GIVEN THE MORE SUBTLE NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, THOUGH FORCING
WILL BE WEAKER.
TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK, WHILE THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE GULF COAST. AN EASTWARD
MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE
TROUGH, POTENTIALLY INDUCING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, THIS MAY
RESULT IN BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM ARE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS MORNING, LEADING TO TIMES OF LOWERED VIS AND CIGS AT
TERMINALS. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD SET IN THIS MORNING AND PERSIST
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED IN SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON, AND PROB30 IS MAINTAINED AT ALL
SITES WITH THIS UPDATE. GUIDANCE HINTS AT MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS TREND IS NOTED IN THE TAFS FOR EET,
ASN, MGM, AND AUO.
OBSERVATIONS FROM TCL REMAIN INTERMITTENT, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH AMD
NOT SKED THERE.
NOTE: SPRING SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE TAF FOR KASN IS NOW BEING ISSUED
AND WILL RUN THROUGH 04/29 18Z.
12
FIRE WEATHER
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH MINRH
VALUES ABOVE 50 PERCENT AREAWIDE. LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH RH VALUES MAINLY IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT
RANGE. SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHER MINRH VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 78 55 83 56 / 70 30 10 10
ANNISTON 78 57 83 58 / 70 30 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 79 60 83 61 / 70 30 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 80 60 83 61 / 70 20 20 10
CALERA 81 59 84 59 / 70 30 10 10
AUBURN 80 62 83 62 / 50 60 10 10
MONTGOMERY 82 61 83 61 / 60 50 20 10
TROY 82 61 84 60 / 60 60 20 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...32/JDAVIS
AVIATION...12
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