168
FXUS64 KBMX 151139
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
539 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 536 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE FOR
SUNDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS LOCALLY.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
THIS EVENING, SURFACE RIDGING HAS RETREATED EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT HAS WORKED
ITS WAY EWD ACROSS OK AND WILL CONTINUE TOWARD N MS BY SUN
MORNING, LATER DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS AL DURING THE DAY SUN. OUR
AIRMASS HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE SOME MODIFICATION. DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE AREA RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NE TO THE MIDDLE
40S SW. CLOUD DECKS ARE SLOWLY LOWERING AS OVERALL MOISTURE IS
SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE TOP DOWN. HOWEVER, ATTM WE DON'T HAVE
MUCH PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE GROUND JUST LET. THAT WILL CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE LOW/SHORTWAVE
THAT WE HAVE WATCHED MOVE ACROSS THE WRN US IS NOW IN E TX AND
WILL CONTINUE TO THE EWD ACROSS LA/MS IN THE PRE-DAWN AND INTO AL
DURING THE DAY SUN.
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS
IT APPROACHES US. IN ADDITION, WE WILL HAVE ONLY LIMITED
INSTABILITY WHEN IT GETS HERE. THERE WILL BE ONLY A MEAGER WINDOW
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME GUSTS AT TIMES IN THE WAY OF
SEVERE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL RAIN WILL BE DURING THE
DAY ON SUN, IN PARTICULAR SUN MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
AROUND 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS C AL BEFORE THE SYSTEM
MOVES OUT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUN
UNTIL THE UPPER SYSTEM IS COMPLETELY THROUGH.
THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A BIG COLD SURGE BEHIND IT AS
THE MAIN ENERGY IS W TO E, BUT IT WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER MONDAY
AND ON INTO MID WEEK. WILL LOOK FOR NW UPPER FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT ON MON WITH THE FLOW TURNING ZONAL TO WSW FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES ELONGATED ACROSS MEXICO
INTO THE GULF. SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR WED AS MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASES, WITH BETTER CHANCES BY THU INTO FRI AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONT. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
08
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT, AS A
CLOSED LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO TREK EAST. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WITH
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS LOWER, AS STORMS WILL BE
EXPERIENCING A WEAKENING TREND DURING THIS TIME. THE ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME WILL BE NEARLY VOID OF ANY
INSTABILITY, AIDING IN THE LACK OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, AS THE
LOW ITSELF BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION BY MID-MORNING, A NARROW
CORRIDOR WILL PRESENT ITSELF FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.
THUS, THE SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR
TOMORROW MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THANKFULLY, WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, AND DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS DURING THIS SMALL WINDOW.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
VERY LITTLE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES TO SPEAK OF. BY WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE TOWARDS
THE SW, ALLOWING FOR MORE SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WELL, WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY HERE, BUT LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO
HIGHLIGHT ANOTHER DEEP SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS TIME NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN TO BE SEEN,
THIS DEEP SYSTEM WOULD DROP TEMPERATURES WAY BACK DOWN TO A SEASONAL
FEEL.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS FROM 10-20 KT. LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING LATER IN THE
DAY.
05
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ELEVATED SUNDAY, LEADING TO HIGHER MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN FACT, IT LOOKS
LIKE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50
PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS
TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION UNDER SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST FLOW. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAINING VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 65 44 69 43 / 100 20 0 0
ANNISTON 66 44 70 44 / 100 20 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 66 47 69 48 / 100 20 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 68 46 70 46 / 90 10 0 0
CALERA 69 45 71 45 / 100 20 0 0
AUBURN 67 48 69 47 / 90 30 0 0
MONTGOMERY 71 50 69 47 / 100 30 0 0
TROY 72 51 70 48 / 100 30 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08/44/
AVIATION...05
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