586
FXUS64 KBMX 291125
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
525 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 519 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
- CLEAR AND COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AFTERNOON.
- A RAINY PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING LATE IN THE DAY
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVED WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WEAKENING AS THE PARENT LOW
MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY FOR ANY
ACTIVITY TO WORK WITH, THOUGH WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BOUNDARY, THERE IS PLENTY OF 0-1 KM SHEAR, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE FRONT AND FORCING WILL BE
STRONGEST.
WOULD EXPECT GENERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND MOVING TO THE EAST WITH
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT, A WEAK LOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY, WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A FAIRLY
DECENT CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTH. HOWEVER,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRISK ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILL VALUES TO BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE POSTED TEMPERATURE, WITH VALUES IN
THE NORTH TO BE AROUND THE UPPER TEENS.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, WITH VALUES RANGING FROM LESS THAN 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR TO NEAR MAX BY THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
SWING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
EARLY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR PARAMETERS AS THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM
WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY, WEAK FORCING, BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
SHEAR. WILL ADVERTISE A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE, BUT NOTHING
SEVERE ON RADAR AT THIS TIME.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOL AND DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW 30S IN THE
SOUTH. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY ON THE NEXT SYSTEM. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
OF A TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHING EXTENT OF
THE CONUS, WITH RAIN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SOME
MODELS, AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR OTHERS. WILL LEAVE AS A
COMPROMISE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND ADJUST AS WE GET CLOSER.
24
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF CYCLE. HAVE
INTRODUCED VCSH BY 06Z AT BHM/EET/TCL AS SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OPTED FOR A TEMPO
GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWERING CEILINGS AND -RA AS THE BOUNDARY
NEARS BY 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
FROM 5-10 KNOTS. WITH THAT SAID, WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE A BIT THIS
MORNING AT AUO WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM 15-20Z.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON
RH VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT, ESPECIALLY AT A FEW SPOTS IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. 20 FOOT WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY, SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WET PATTERN TAKES SHAPE THROUGH
TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 54 40 52 27 / 0 40 70 10
ANNISTON 55 41 54 32 / 0 30 60 20
BIRMINGHAM 55 45 52 32 / 0 50 60 20
TUSCALOOSA 57 44 53 32 / 10 60 70 10
CALERA 58 42 55 32 / 0 40 60 20
AUBURN 56 43 62 40 / 0 10 40 20
MONTGOMERY 59 43 62 41 / 0 10 40 20
TROY 59 43 67 44 / 0 0 30 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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