518
FXUS64 KBMX 121106
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
606 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
- MAJOR HEAT RISK: A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY FROM 1
PM TO 9 PM, WITH ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR
LATER THIS WEEK. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUS HEAT WITH
HEAT INDICES REACHING 105-110 DEGREES DAILY FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- DRY CONDITIONS: WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, CONCERNS WILL BE INCREASING TOWARD THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL INCREASINGLY COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND BEYOND. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA, BUT
COVERAGE AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN TODAY. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN LATE WEEK, THOSE CHANCES FOR RAIN BECOME LESS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION, WHERE NO RAIN IS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. LATEST ECMWF, GFS, AND
OTHER GLOBAL MODELS BRING A DEMORALIZING 598 TO 600 DECAMETER
RIDGE AND CENTER IT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND. THE TERM DEMORALIZING IS USED AS A RIDGE NEAR 600 DM
WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING HIGHER THAN WE'VE SEEN THIS
YEAR. AS SATURDAY ROLLS AROUND AND BECOMES SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WE
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING OR
EXCEEDING 100°F ACROSS A BROAD PART OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. EVEN MORE CONCERNING IS THAT THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE LOOKS TO LAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK, EVEN
BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. WITH LESS GROUND MOISTURE DUE
TO AN OVERALL LACK OF PRECIPITATION MOVING FORWARD, HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXCEED 100°F GOING INTO THE 7-9
DAY RANGE FROM NOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY CONCERNING FOR HEAT STRESS
ON PEOPLE AND ANIMALS, AS WELL AS INCREASING CONCERNS WITH
VEGETATION AND THE RETURN OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS HEADING TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
IN THE MEANTIME, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 1 PM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA, MINUS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BEGIN
CREEPING ABOVE THE 105°F MARK. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY BE EXPANDED
AREA-WIDE FOR THURSDAY AT THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE, AND WILL
LIKELY BE CARRIED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NIGHTLY LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, STAYING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S IN MOST PLACES SOUTH AND WEST IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA WILL STAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THROUGH THIS WHOLE RUN, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S AND HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S.
12
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. RIDGING ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. PROB30 FOR TSRA
AT AUO CONTINUES TO REFLECT THE BEST WINDOW OF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR
OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY. AS RIDGING BUILDS FRIDAY,
CONDITIONS WILL TURN SLIGHTLY DRIER, WITH MINRH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40 PERCENT RANGE IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY THE WEEKEND,
MINRH VALUES WILL FURTHER DECREASE TO NEAR 35-40 PERCENT ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK, THE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED AND
MORE CONFINED TO EASTERN AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, BUT
MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE IF RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS PERSIST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 93 74 95 75 / 30 20 30 0
ANNISTON 91 74 94 75 / 20 20 20 0
BIRMINGHAM 93 75 95 77 / 10 10 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 95 76 97 77 / 10 10 10 0
CALERA 94 75 96 75 / 10 10 10 0
AUBURN 91 75 93 77 / 20 20 20 0
MONTGOMERY 96 76 98 77 / 10 10 20 0
TROY 95 75 95 75 / 20 10 20 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-LOWNDES-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...16
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