172
FXUS64 KBMX 261116
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
516 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 507 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND WIND ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS
SEVERE ACTIVITY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
RAIN IS CURRENTLY ONGOING WELL TO OUR NORTH, AS THIS ELONGATED COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT, EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AS THE MORNING GOES ON,
AND THE FRONT DROPS FARTHER SOUTH. CURRENT THINKING IS A RAGGED LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING, EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE DISORGANIZED AS NEW STORMS FORM
AHEAD OF THE LINE. THIS IS WHERE EVEN THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE STARTS
TO SPLIT, AS A FEW DIFFERENT SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE WHEN IT COMES TO
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, AS MEAN HREF CAPE VALUES ARE PUSHING 900 J/KG ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20 LATER TODAY. THE MID-LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY TOO,
AS 700-500MB LAPSE RATES WERE PUSHING 7.5 C/KM ON MANY OF THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS I PULLED THIS EVENING. INCLUDING THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, THE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO FAVORABLE FOR
LARGE HAIL, WITH THE SPC INTRODUCING A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5)
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID, THIS IS NOT A SLAM DUNK, THUS THE SPC
ONLY INTRODUCING THE LEVEL 1/5. THERE ARE MORE THAN A FEW SCENARIOS
WHERE THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS COMPLETELY DEPLETE THE ATMOSPHERE OF
INSTABILITY, AND CHOKE OFF ANY KIND OF RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS ALSO A SCENARIO IN WHICH AFTERNOON STORMS GROW VERY
QUICKLY, CHOKING THE UPDRAFTS OF MORE MATURE STORMS, LIMITING THE
HAIL POTENTIAL AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. REGARDLESS OF THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL, THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING HALF AN INCH TO
AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
QUICKLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER-70S COME SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME NEAR MONDAY, BRIEFLY
DROPPING TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE, BEFORE VERY QUICKLY REBOUNDING INTO
WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH IT'S NOT IN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD, THE
WEATHER STORY WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES,
AS A STOUT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR EAST COME THIS
TIME NEXT WEEK.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GOING TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF
THE AVIATION FORECAST TODAY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH GRADUALLY
DECREASING CIGS FOR BHM, TCL, AND EET EARLY IN THE DAY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WITH AT LEAST SOME MODEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED,
HAVE INCLUDE PROB30S IN FOR THOSE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MGM AND AUO WILL SEE THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP AS THIS FRONT MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FOR BHM AND EET, THEN
LATER FOR THE REMAINDER TAF SITES. I'VE CONTINUED TO TREND THE CIG
DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS GUIDANCE IS PESSIMISTIC FROM
09Z-12Z FOR MANY SITES WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF DROPPING TO LIFR
BEFORE 12Z.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO DROP ON FRIDAY, AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY
WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. UNTIL THEN, LOOK FOR MINRH VALUES TO
REMAIN ABOVE 50%, AS MODERATE RAIN CHANCES STAY IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE QUICK DRYING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE GIVEN
THE UPCOMING RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 68 48 70 43 / 90 50 10 0
ANNISTON 68 50 70 45 / 80 60 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 68 51 70 46 / 80 60 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 72 50 72 44 / 70 70 10 0
CALERA 71 50 72 45 / 80 70 10 0
AUBURN 69 55 70 51 / 70 80 40 10
MONTGOMERY 73 57 72 50 / 70 90 40 10
TROY 75 58 72 52 / 50 80 60 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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