242
FXUS64 KBMX 192010
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
310 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
- HEAT RISK: HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 103-106 DEGREE RANGE
THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WITH ANY
EXTENDED OR STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
- SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AS THE MAIN IMPACT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
OUR UPPER RIDGE OF LATE OVER TEXAS AND INTO MEXICO IS DETERIORATING
AS A CLOSED LOW OVER FLORIDA PUSHES WESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. THIS WILL TRANSITION OUR WEATHER PATTERN AND FINALLY
YIELD A RETURN TO SCATTERED STORM CHANCES. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES TO FUEL THE ACTIVITY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS. FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, GUIDANCE BRINGS THE UPPER
LOW FURTHER WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE TO FILTER INTO THE STATE. LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE.
ON TUESDAY, GUIDANCE WEAKENS/DETERIORATES THE LOW. DIURNAL POP
CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE
FRONT/BOUNDARY. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BUT DOES NOT LOOK
TO BE ENOUGH TO MAKE A LARGE DENT IN THE DROUGHT JUST YET.
GUIDANCE IS LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE WEAK FRONT TO MAKE IT
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MUCH
WELCOME MORE "NORMAL" READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THROUGH 8PM. CONCERN
IS FOR ALL OF THE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND THAT IT IS MUCH WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (OUTLIER EVENT). WHILE ANY
CONVECTION WILL HELP TO LOWER TEMPERATURES TO BRING SOME RELIEF,
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS WILL BE TOASTY. PLAN BREAKS ACCORDINGLY.
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. NO
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NECESSARY OVER
THE NEXT WEEK AFTER TODAY.
08
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. MODERATE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH A
BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE. I HAVE PROB30S GOING FOR ALL SITES.
THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR MVFR PATCHY FOG FOR EET/AUO
LATE TONIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE. ONLY CONFIDENT ENOUGH THERE FOR A
MENTION ATTM. WHILE GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH CONVECTION OR
OUTFLOWS, WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OTHERWISE.
08
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH
COMPOUNDING EFFECTS FROM INTENSIFYING DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY
ARISE. DAILY MINRH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35%.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 95 70 95 / 20 30 20 30
ANNISTON 70 94 70 93 / 20 30 30 20
BIRMINGHAM 73 95 73 95 / 20 30 20 20
TUSCALOOSA 72 99 73 98 / 20 40 20 20
CALERA 71 96 71 96 / 20 40 20 20
AUBURN 71 91 71 92 / 40 40 20 20
MONTGOMERY 72 94 72 95 / 40 40 20 20
TROY 70 94 70 94 / 40 40 30 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-COOSA-
DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LOWNDES-
MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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