042
FXUS64 KBMX 061809
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1209 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1203 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING FORECAST.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH AND EAST, BUT ARE STARTING TO
ERODE IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE SHORTWAVE THAT WAS PROGGED OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING, APPEARS TO NOT BE AS STRONG, BUT IS STILL THERE. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW RIGHT NOW ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG, BUT
INCREASING. WE ALSO DO SEE SOME LIGHT ECHOES ON RADAR ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA THIS MORNING. SO WITH THAT SAID AND THE CURRENT
CLOUDS IN PLACE, WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW. GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE AS SCATTERED BUT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
THIS COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW CURRENT GUIDANCE
BUT STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH THE WARMEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
FOR SATURDAY, THE COLD FRONT (BOUNDARY) WILL SLIDE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING, WITH A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN
ACCELERATING AWAY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY 2 TO 3 PM AND THEN SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE THE ACTIVITY WEAKEN
AS THE BOUNDARY WORKS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONT. THE CAMS TAKE THE
BOUNDARY ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA, SO ACTIVITY THAT REDEVELOPS ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF, AND PUSHING THROUGH
BEFORE THE AFTERNOON. THIS OVERALL TIMING IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL. A FEW OUTLIERS REDEVELOP A STRONGER
BOUNDARY SUNDAY MORNING NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR SO THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED AS PLAUSIBLE BUT WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST ON THE
CONSENSUS. EITHER WAY SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE
THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD STALL OVER THE AREA THEN LIFT AS A WARM
FRONT, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. LOOK
FOR AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH
THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN ON THE TIMING SOME, SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS,
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITORED AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE LOW CEILINGS WILL ARE SLOWLY LIFTING BUT SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH 19Z IN THE WEST. THEN WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A BKN LOW TO
MID LEVEL DECK AROUND 3500 TO 5000 FEET. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE MEDIUM SIDE (30 TO 50%) NOT AS SOLD ON THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PROB30 FROM 21Z TO 3Z AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT AUO. ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY DEVELOP AT
MGM/AUO NEAR 12Z TIME PERIOD.
16
FIRE WEATHER
THE WARM/MOIST AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE REGION, SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AT LEAST LOW TO
MEDIUM THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 59 81 59 73 / 30 50 80 80
ANNISTON 61 81 61 74 / 30 40 80 80
BIRMINGHAM 63 81 62 73 / 20 50 80 80
TUSCALOOSA 63 81 61 74 / 20 70 80 80
CALERA 61 83 61 74 / 20 50 80 90
AUBURN 63 81 62 74 / 30 30 50 80
MONTGOMERY 62 84 63 74 / 20 30 50 80
TROY 61 84 62 76 / 10 30 30 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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