387
FXUS64 KBMX 240520
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1220 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
- SEASONABLE CONDITIONS: FAIR WEATHER WITH WARM AFTERNOONS AND
COOL MORNINGS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS: MODERATE FIRE WEATHER RISK OVER THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AND WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING REVEALS AN UPPER RIDGE PUSHING
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS AN UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA CUTS INTO IT AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. DRY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS AND MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE UNDER THE RIDGE, WITH HIGHS RANGING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND LOWS IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT, WHEN THE APEX OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY
SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH
UNDER THE CAD WEDGE. THERE IS A LOW (~10%) CHANCE FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER
30S. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE PATCHY
RIVER FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DAILY OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WARMER TEMPS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. LIGHT, VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 7-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AUO AND POTENTIALLY MGM WILL SEE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 15-20 KNOTS.
NOTE: FALL SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE KASN TALLADEGA TAF BEGAN ON
10/18 00Z AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10/28 18Z.
12
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW US TO MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME MINRH VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS PICK UP
SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND, GENERALLY IN THE 5-8 KNOT RANGE. GIVEN
MINRH VALUES AND DRYING FUELS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 74 45 73 43 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 74 47 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 74 49 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 77 47 76 47 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 73 48 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 73 49 72 50 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 75 49 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 73 48 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...12
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