882
FXUS64 KBMX 271741
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CENTRAL
ALABAMA, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, REMAINING
CONCENTRATED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
- TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST REMAINS A BIG DRIVER IN THE FORECAST
OVER HERE IN ALABAMA, WITH A ~596 DM RIDGE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO. A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA, WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE STATE. ANOTHER FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST,
CURRENTLY OVER ARKANSAS AND KENTUCKY. THIS WILL SLIDE IN TO
REPLACE AS THE CURRENT BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. THIS AFTERNOON, WE
EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT BOUNDARY. THICKER CLOUD COVER
IN SPOTS TODAY MAY KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. A SIMILAR SITUATION
WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY, AS STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG A LINE
FROM SELMA TO ANNISTON TO NE GEORGIA. A LEVEL 1 MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF GEORGIA,
BUT DOES NOT EXTEND INTO ALABAMA WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OF THE ROUTINE SUMMER VARIETY,
AND COULD CAUSE INSTANCES OF MINOR WIND DAMAGE.
AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES HEAT BACK UP FROM THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S TO THE MID
90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
ARE LOWER THAN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AT THIS POINT, AND THOSE
CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONCENTRATED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
12
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. AUO AND MGM
WILL BE MOST AFFECTED, WITH TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR TSRA THROUGH 03Z.
TCL, EET, AND BHM HAVE A SMALLER WINDOW IN THE AFTERNOON, SO
MAINTAINED PROB30 FOR 21-00Z. AFTER MIDNIGHT, CIGS AND VIS WILL
BEGIN TO FALL AND WILL LIKELY REACH MVFR OR IFR BY EARLY MORNING.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING AT EET, MGM, AND AUO, WHILE MAINTAINING AT
MVFR CIGS FOR BHM. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR TCL, SO KEPT IT VFR
FOR NOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION
OUTAGE.
12
FIRE WEATHER
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 91 69 92 / 20 20 10 20
ANNISTON 70 89 69 89 / 30 30 20 20
BIRMINGHAM 71 90 70 91 / 20 20 10 20
TUSCALOOSA 72 93 70 95 / 20 20 10 10
CALERA 71 90 70 92 / 20 30 10 20
AUBURN 72 87 71 86 / 50 60 30 40
MONTGOMERY 72 91 72 92 / 30 50 30 30
TROY 70 88 70 89 / 40 60 30 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...12
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