652
FXUS64 KBMX 131826
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
126 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 124 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE'S INCREASING CONCERN FOR
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, A FEW TORNADOES, AND LARGE HAIL.
- THERE IS A VERY HIGH CHANCE (>90%) FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A DEEP TROUGH BUILDS INTO OUR
WEST. THIS TROUGH IS GOING TO BE THE MAIN STORY SUNDAY THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND LIFT THROUGH THE MID-MS AND OHIO VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH CENTRAL AL DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS TAKES PLACE, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL AND THEN NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH TIME,
INCREASING SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS
HAVE INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LEADING TO MORE
CONCERNS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AL.
1. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING REALLY QUICKLY. THIS CONTRIBUTES TO ONE OF
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AS THESE STORMS
MOVE THROUGH. THE FORWARD MOTION ALONE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC, BUT THEN
WE'LL LIKELY HAVE AREAS WHERE WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO THE STRONGER
CONVECTION.
2. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR, INCREASING CONCERNS FOR THE TORNADO THREAT DEPENDING ON
HOW THE LINE EVOLVES AND WHAT KIND OF STORM INTERACTIONS WE GET.
THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW MUCH WE'RE ABLE TO
DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN IT'S QUICK MOTION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT WITH THE DYNAMICS IN
PLACE, THOSE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL. THERE'S HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND THREAT DUE
TO THE SETUP AND FORWARD SPEED.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY AND
ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS. THERE'S A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE THAT A FEW OF OUR COLDER
SITES ACROSS THE NORTH SEE A HARD FREEZE TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL
AL. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING TO 3-5KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY AND THROUGH SATURDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MUCH
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS EARLY MONDAY AS THIS NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 38 75 51 76 / 0 0 0 20
ANNISTON 43 77 54 77 / 0 0 10 20
BIRMINGHAM 45 75 57 78 / 0 0 0 20
TUSCALOOSA 44 78 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
CALERA 43 78 55 80 / 0 0 10 20
AUBURN 48 77 57 78 / 0 0 10 20
MONTGOMERY 44 78 58 81 / 0 0 10 20
TROY 46 78 58 81 / 0 0 10 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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