581
FXUS64 KBMX 181934
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
234 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
- PERSISTENT HEAT: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THIS
WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING AS HIGH AS THE MIDDLE
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 5 DEGREES
HIGHER. TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WITH ANY EXTENDED OR STRENUOUS
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
- SEVERE STORMS: THERE'S A LEVEL 1 OF 5 THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS UP
TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM SRN ILLINOIS TO
MEXICO AND BE CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME A BIT
OF ENERGY HAS BROKEN OFF OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM THE MAIN
NORTHERN UPPER FLOW AND IS BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER FLORIDA.
THE LOW SHOULD SLOWLY NUDGE WESTWARD OVER THE SHORT TERM AND THEN
HELP TO PUSH AND DEGRADE THE RIDGE. THIS WILL TRANSITION OUR
WEATHER PATTERN AND FINALLY YIELD A RETURN TO SOME, AT LEAST LOW,
RAIN CHANCES. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO US, LOW RAIN
CHANCES HAVE RETURNED FOR THIS AFTERNOON ASSISTED BY DAYTIME
HEATING. INITIALLY, THIS WEEKEND, OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED, SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LOW. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING GUSTY WINDS. FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, GUIDANCE BRINGS THE
UPPER LOW FURTHER WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE TO FILTER INTO THE STATE.
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR BUT WITH STILL ONLY MEAGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR A LUCKY FEW.
ON TUESDAY, GUIDANCE WEAKENS/DETERIORATES THE LOW. DIURNAL POP
CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AND THE END OF OUR FORECAST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY. UNFORTUNATELY,
OVERALL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
ONLY MINIMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FORECASTED. SO, OVER THE NEXT WEEK,
NO DROUGHT BUSTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, IF THE FRONT
DOES MAKE IT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THEN TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABLE TO GO DOWN TO "NORMAL" FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED OVER THE NEXT WEEK, THE
WARMEST DAY WILL BE TOMORROW, ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HOT WITH HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AS 100-106 AT TIMES. GUIDANCE
TRENDED A TAD WARMER FOR SATURDAY. DECIDED TO GO WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA (ALL BUT FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST)
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON, NOON THROUGH 8PM. CONCERN IS FOR ALL OF
THE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND THAT IT IS MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR (OUTLIER EVENT). WHILE WE DO HAVE SCATTERED
STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, OUTSIDE OF STORMS WILL BE TOASTY.
PLAN ACCORDINGLY!
08
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA THANKS TO
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PRESENT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. CONVECTION
CHANCES ARE VERY LOW TODAY (LESS THAN 15%). WINDS WILL BE AROUND
4-8KTS WITH MIXING AND MINIMAL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN AFTER SUNSET TO LIGHT/VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM
OVERNIGHT.
08
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH
COMPOUNDING EFFECTS FROM INTENSIFYING DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY
ARISE. DAILY MINRH THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 30 TO 40%. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE VERY LOW
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 72 98 70 95 / 20 30 30 20
ANNISTON 72 96 70 93 / 20 40 40 30
BIRMINGHAM 74 98 73 95 / 20 30 20 20
TUSCALOOSA 73 101 73 99 / 20 30 20 20
CALERA 73 98 72 96 / 20 40 20 20
AUBURN 73 95 71 91 / 20 50 40 30
MONTGOMERY 73 97 72 94 / 20 40 40 30
TROY 71 97 70 93 / 10 40 30 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-COOSA-
DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LOWNDES-
MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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