075
FXUS64 KBMX 161106
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
506 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 506 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH RESIDUAL
TROUGHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE BROAD RIDGING WAS
POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE COASTAL CAROLINAS, SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW 20S
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
TODAY.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL LATER TODAY AS
BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA WHILE TROUGHING
DEEPENS FURTHER OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST MEXICO.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE ACROSS GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY, RESULTING IN A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 40 FAR NORTHWEST TO THE MID 50S SOUTH WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
FROM 5-10 MPH.
TONIGHT.
LOW AMPLITUDE BROAD RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT
WHILE TROUGHING WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WHILE SURFACE TROUGHING BECOMES MORE DEFINED ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHILE DEEPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST
FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BECOME LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT DEVELOPS FROM LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW (5-15% CHANCE) OF SHOWERS INITIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATER IN THE DAY AND EXPANDING EASTWARD
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10
MPH WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FAR NORTHEAST TO THE MID 40S WEST
AND CENTRAL.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS
RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER EAST TEXAS WHILE A POTENT
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY.
THE TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT
SWINGS EAST OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS BY MID EVENING. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
DEEPEN ACROSS MINNESOTA WHILE A TRIPLE POINT EMERGES NORTH OF ST.
LOUIS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST WHILE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME
WARM SECTORED LATER IN THE DAY BEFORE THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
ARRIVES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
SCATTERED (25-50%) ACTIVITY WEST AND ISOLATED (10-20%) ACTIVITY
EAST. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED TO BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
AREAS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS (40-80%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FAR SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
MIDDAY, EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME TOWARD THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR INTO THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND INTENSITY
TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED FURTHER AS WE GET MORE HIGHER-
RESOLUTION MODELING IN. SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR APPEARS TO EXIST
WITH INSTABILITY BEING THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 6-12 MPH,
BECOMING WESTERLY AT 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 FAR NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BEHIND THE BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS LOWS
RANGE FROM NEAR 30 IN THAT AREA TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WHILE A SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST UNDER FAIR SKIES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE
MID 50S SOUTH ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY AN AREAWIDE FREEZE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 30 SOUTH.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND EAST TO THE
MID 60S FAR SOUTHWEST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S EAST TO THE UPPER 40S WEST.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA ALOFT
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST, BECOMING CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY, SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND TO MOVE INTO THE
MID-SOUTH REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED (15-30%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AND EXPANDING FURTHER SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY EARLY ON MONDAY
WHILE THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN THE SURFACE FRONT STALLING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CONTINUED ISOLATED
(15-25%) CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST LATE SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY DUE TO EXPECTED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE EFFECTS AS A
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S FAR NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70
FAR SOUTH. LOWS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S NORTH
TO READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT FAR SOUTH. LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY WEDGING EFFECTS DUE TO
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHEAST TO READINGS NEAR 50 FAR SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOW 60S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 70 FAR SOUTH.
05
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 20 FOOT
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT
5-10 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20
PERCENT RANGE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
RH MINIMUMS IN THE MID 40 PERCENT RANGE FAR EAST TO NEAR 60
PERCENT WEST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A GOOD CHANCE FOR WETTING
RAIN IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 52 27 56 36 / 0 0 0 10
ANNISTON 54 31 60 41 / 0 0 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 53 34 58 43 / 0 0 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 53 33 58 45 / 0 0 10 10
CALERA 55 31 61 42 / 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 55 35 60 45 / 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 54 31 61 44 / 0 0 0 10
TROY 55 33 62 44 / 0 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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