609
FXUS64 KBMX 210354
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
954 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP BREEZY WINDS OVER THE AREA, AND
COUPLED WITH A MID LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD AND DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE STATE WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING EACH PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
IN THE NORTH, AND THE UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH. THOUGH A FEW AREAS
MAY SEE PATCHY FROST, THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT
THE TEMPERATURES OVERALL AND FROST POTENTIAL. THURSDAY, THE HIGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER AND SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH.
24
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- A LARGER AREA IN THE NORTH AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE
FROST ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE NORMALLY COOLER AREAS IN THE
NORTHEAST MAY BRIEFLY HIT THE FREEZING MARK.
- A SIGNIFICANT FROST/FREEZE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.
OVERALL, THE THOUGHT PROCESS OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS INTACT.
TEMPERATURES DID COME IN A TOUCH LOWER AND WINDS A SLIGHT LIGHTER
FRIDAY MORNING, SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FROST INTO THE
GRIDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD START TO THE DAY WILL ONLY GIVE
WAY TO TEMPERATURES HANGING OUT IN THE 50S ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY REMAINS THE COLDEST IN THE FORECAST, WITH BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE A FROST, WHILE THE
NORTH AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE A FREEZE, AND POSSIBLY A
SIGNIFICANT FREEZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD.
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT, MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE EURO HAS SPED UP AND TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH, WHILE THE GFS REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
RUN. IN SOME PLACES GUIDANCE IS ALMOST 10 DEGREES DIFFERENCE. TO
AVOID THE FLIP FLOP IN THE FORECAST, OPTED TO BLEND THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS, TRENDING THE FORECAST ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE.
16
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
A SECONDARY PUSH OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE DEEP SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND BROAD UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE
MID AND LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY MORNING,
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PREVENT ANY
WIDESPREAD FROST ISSUES. WE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW VERY SHELTERED
VALLEY LOCATIONS SEEING SOME FROST, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT CHILLY DAY,
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW WARM WE'VE BEEN SO FAR THIS FALL.
PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20 AND 25MPH WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL MUCH COOLER. "FEELS LIKE"
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY START OUT IN THE 20S FRIDAY MORNING AND
REMAIN ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL STAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, WE'LL SEE THE COLDEST NIGHT DURING THE PERIOD AS GRADIENT
WINDS RELAX. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS,
WITH COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES DROPPING DOWN BELOW
FREEZING. WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE, WHICH WILL
ESSENTIALLY END THE GROWING SEASON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE MODIFYING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE 70S BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING. A FRONT MAY TRY TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME WHICH COULD
PRODUCE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 951 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRY AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING
STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS OVER NIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT, INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING
THURSDAY. WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MID LEVEL
WINDS, THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
GUST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
24
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST 20
FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND POTENTIALLY MIDDLE 20S IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INCREASES ON FRIDAY, SO RH
VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 36 53 33 52 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 38 55 33 52 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 37 56 35 52 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 38 60 36 55 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 38 56 35 55 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 39 57 35 54 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 40 60 35 57 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 40 60 36 55 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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