851
FXUS64 KBMX 101946
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
246 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2024
..NEW LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2024
THE COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED SOUTH OF OUR AREA, WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOST CLOUD COVER HAS DISSIPATED
EXCEPT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR, BUT EVEN THOSE WILL
GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 50S AT HALEYVILLE AS OF
MIDDAY, WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS AT TROY AND EUFAULA. AS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO DIP DOWN INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE, WITH A FEW
UPPER 40S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA
VALLEYS. PATCHY FOG ALSO REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE MAJOR
RIVERS AND LAKES FROM ROUGHLY 3AM TO SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.
VERY TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOW HUMIDITY.
56/GDG
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2024
THE NEXT UPSTREAM WEATHER SYSTEM IS ARRIVING A LITTLE FASTER WITH
EACH MODEL RUN. HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD ALABAMA ON SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS MOVING INTO WEST ALABAMA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE
70S. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING THE STRONGER CONVECTION STAYING CLOSER
TO THE COAST. THIS WOULD CUT-OFF THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND
HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA, BUT STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN WILL
PULL OUT OF ALABAMA TUESDAY EVENING WITH A BREAK IN THE RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
58/ROSE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND STAY AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MAX RH VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BE ABOVE 90 PERCENT.
MIN RH VALUES ON SATURDAY NEAR 35 PERCENT WITH 20 FOOT WINDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 5-7 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 50 78 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 51 78 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 54 79 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 55 81 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 55 79 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 56 78 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 56 80 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 56 79 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....58/ROSE
AVIATION...56
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