941
FXUS64 KBMX 161111
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
611 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
- PERSISTENT HEAT: ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THIS
WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING AS HIGH AS THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WITH ANY EXTENDED OR STRENUOUS
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
A RIDGE CENTERED NEAR TENNESSEE WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PERSISTENT UPPER-
LEVEL FEATURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES UNDER 15% WHILE DRIVING HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW-TO-UPPER 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, APPROACHING NEAR-RECORD DAILY HIGHS IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS
BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY. LOWER DEW POINTS WITHIN THIS DRIER
AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 101 AND
104 DEGREES, REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
BY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO
TRANSITION AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TRACKS WEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA, ALONGSIDE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
MOVING OVER THE MIDWEST. THE INFLUX OF RETURNING GULF MOISTURE
WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND SUPPORT A MODEST UPTICK IN SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS WELL AS
SLIGHTLY TEMPERING THE HOT TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, UNLESS THE
PROJECTED PATTERN SHIFTS SIGNIFICANTLY, WIDESPREAD DROUGHT RELIEF
IS UNLIKELY.
16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
WE'RE EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY OF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AL
DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BEING TO OUR NORTH. WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 6-8KT RANGE
TODAY, DECREASING THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AMD NOT SKED IS APPENDED AT AUO DUE TO MISSING OBSERVATIONS.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
WHILE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME, COMPOUNDING
EFFECTS FROM INTENSIFYING DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY ARISE. DAILY
MINRH THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 30 TO
40%. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE NIL TO VERY LOW OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THOUGH A MODEST INCREASE MAY OCCUR FOR SOME AREAS
STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 95 68 95 69 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 92 67 93 68 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 94 71 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 97 71 97 70 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 94 68 94 69 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 90 67 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 93 68 93 67 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 92 66 91 65 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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