153
FXUS64 KBMX 232355
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
655 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
- STRONG STORMS: EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING.
- COOLER, DRIER EARLY FALL PATTERN: A NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS SETTLES ACROSS CENTRAL AL FOR THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER-TO-MIDDLE 80S
AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING REVEALS A TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OUT TO
OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT CAN BE SEEN DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY, A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL
TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN AREAS. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL HELP LIMIT OUR INSTABILITY THROUGH
THE DAY. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO HINT AT AROUND
1000 J/KG CAPE AND A PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
CONVECTION WILL WANE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS OUR UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT PEELS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING
ACROSS THE REGION. WE CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON THURSDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH. MOST LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY TOMORROW. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING THEN TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION, LEAVING US DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
SETTLING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. A MUCH NEEDED COOL DOWN
IS IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE
OUR OVERNIGHT TEMPS WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS OF 7 TO 10 KNOTS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING ANY DIRECT
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF -SHRA AT MGM LATE
THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS LIKELY AREAWIDE THURSDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE, WE MADE THE CONDITIONS DOMINANT AFTER 08Z AND
LOWERED CEILINGS TO 1500 FEET IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR ALL SITES FROM
11 TO 15Z BASED ON THE LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. SKIES WILL
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH 00Z, RETURNING TO VFR
AFTER 17 TO 18Z.
16
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY
DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVING THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY (MINRH) VALUES WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 40% AND 60% THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, DRIER
AIR WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH MINRHS IN THE 30-40%
RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 63 81 59 82 / 50 0 0 0
ANNISTON 65 80 58 80 / 40 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 67 83 61 84 / 30 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 68 87 63 88 / 10 10 0 0
CALERA 67 84 60 85 / 30 10 0 0
AUBURN 66 79 60 80 / 20 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 69 84 62 84 / 40 0 0 0
TROY 67 84 60 84 / 10 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...16
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