887
FXUS64 KBMX 081041
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
541 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE. THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
THIS EVENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM TEXAS
NORTHEASTWARD TO OHIO BEHIND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE
CAROLINAS TO OFF OF THE ALABAMA GULF COAST AND BACK TO NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS. THE SATELLITE PICTURE IS ANYTHING BUT
CLEAR AS THICK CIRRUS CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES.
THIS IS THANKS TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF MEXICO
THAT WILL SEND PERTURBATIONS OUT FROM THE LOW AND THROUGH THE
FLOW INTO ALABAMA. FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, CIRRUS WILL
BE THE RESULT. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, THIS LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND INTO WEST TEXAS, THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH EAST, AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ON
SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP OVER TEXAS
BECOMING MORE OF A SHORTWAVE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN FLOW.
DURING THIS TIME, DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW FROM IT INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES, FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE (1 OUT OF
5) STORMS MAY OCCUR, HELPED BY DAYTIME HEATING PERPETUATING INTO
THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.
ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS
OVERALL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
MORE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WITH THE DECAYING
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA. BY MONDAY MORNING GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SURFACE
FRONT THROUGH, BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LAG BEHIND
DURING THE DAY UNTIL THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES PAST
ALABAMA. CONDITIONS CLEAR AND COOL BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY.
08
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWARD AND
MAY APPROACH MGM DURING THE DAY, BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME
LATER IN THE PERIOD. BEGINNING AROUND 03Z-06Z, INCREASING LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
ALL SITES, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO DROP
CEILINGS TO IFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
THERE'S A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) THAT A FEW SITES WILL DROP TO LIFR
FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE 12Z.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES TO TCL DUE TO INTERMITTENT
OBSERVATIONS
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
AFTER A BRIEF RAIN-FREE PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLEAR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS. MIN RH VALUES ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN ABOVE 40% FRIDAY AND ABOVE 50% OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 73 52 78 55 / 0 50 40 30
ANNISTON 74 55 77 57 / 0 70 50 30
BIRMINGHAM 74 58 79 60 / 0 80 40 30
TUSCALOOSA 75 58 79 60 / 0 80 50 30
CALERA 75 57 80 59 / 0 80 50 30
AUBURN 73 59 76 62 / 0 80 80 50
MONTGOMERY 73 59 77 61 / 10 70 80 40
TROY 73 59 77 62 / 30 70 70 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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