392
FXUS64 KBMX 250545
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1137 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOW
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING CONCERNS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM TODAY, A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN
DROPPING SOUTH OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AS THIS LONGWAVE
DIGS SOUTH, SO WILL A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME
DISCONNECTED FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING DUE TO ITS ELONGATED
NATURE, SLOWING DOWN OR STALLING NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY.
ON THURSDAY HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE
LARGER LONGWAVE PATTERN, WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY, AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE, PAIRED WITH THE
COLD FRONT, WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG A LINE, EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OF THURSDAY.
FROM A SEVERE WEATHER STANDPOINT, INSTABILITY (OR LACK THEREOF) IS
STILL THE LIMITING FACTOR, WITH THE REGION STILL NOT UNDER ANY
OFFICIAL OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC. THAT'S STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE, AS
THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE, IT JUST WON'T
HAVE THE FUEL IT NEEDS TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. WITH THAT BEING SAID, AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. IT ALSO
APPEARS AS IF THIS LINE IS STARTING TO SLOW DOWN, IN TURN,
INCREASING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH AREAS OF 2+ INCHES
POSSIBLE. ANY INCREASE IN RAINFALL TOTALS IS MUCH NEEDED GIVEN THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS, BEFORE
THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE TOWARDS A ZONAL PATTERN BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST,
BUT IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ONCE MORE. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL BE PUSHING THE UPPER-70S SOUTH, WITH SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ACTUALLY END
UP BEING ONE OF OUR MAIN WEATHER STORIES HERE, AS IT LOOKS LIKE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE NEXT TWO
OR SO WEEKS.
/44/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF DROP TO MVFR CIGS FOR BHM, EET, AND TCL
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE FOR VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL REBOUND TODAY, AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT
NORTH, BEFORE REALLY EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
WITH SOME POCKETS OF 2+ INCHES POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, MINRH VALUES WILL QUICKLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT, FALLING
BACK INTO THE MID-30% RANGE BY SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 35 63 51 67 / 0 10 40 90
ANNISTON 37 65 53 68 / 0 10 30 90
BIRMINGHAM 40 65 56 69 / 0 10 40 90
TUSCALOOSA 39 70 56 73 / 0 0 30 80
CALERA 38 69 54 71 / 0 0 30 80
AUBURN 38 67 56 70 / 0 0 20 70
MONTGOMERY 38 72 56 73 / 0 0 20 70
TROY 38 72 55 74 / 0 0 20 60
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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