769
FXUS64 KBMX 231704
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1104 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1103 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
- GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY, LIKELY FALLING
JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
- LOW RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AND STRONG WINDS WILL PROVIDE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
6 PM.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND A SHORTWAVE THAT
MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH SUNSET, SO WIND WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY AT TIMES. WE
WILL WARM UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED AT ALL TO SEE SOME NEAR 80 READINGS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BUT THAT
WOULD BE IN THE TOP 10 PERCENT OF MODEL PROBABILITIES SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
EYES NOW SHIFT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE
MAIN SHOW WILL BE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW MODEL
CONSENSUS BRING THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH PLENTY OF DYNAMICS AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WHILE WE STILL HAVE SOME TIMING ISSUES
WE NEED TO IRON OUT, THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION STRONG STORMS WITH THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AND PERHAPS
SOME SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL FOR A
MARGINAL RISK TO BE INTRODUCED BY SPC WITH THE UPDATE TO THE NEW
DAY 3 TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THURSDAY. THE QUESTION
WOULD BE HOW FAR NORTH DOES THE THREAT EXISTS AND HOW LONG INTO
THE NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS. MORE DETAILS ON THIS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT
TIMES. WINDS DROP OFF TO 7 KTS OR LESS AFTER 1 TO 3Z, THEN BEGIN
TO SWITCH TO A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 7 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE CYCLE. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN.
16
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING BETWEEN
20-35%. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE STRONG, WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS NEAR 15 MPH, AND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH LIKELY THROUGH SUNSET.
GIVEN THE DRYING PATTERN, MINRH VALUES MAY EVEN BE LOWER TOMORROW,
BUT THEY SHOULD START TO REBOUND INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN RETURNS TO
THE FORECAST BY THURSDAY, AND SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACED TO HAVE A RED
FLAG WARNING IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 42 18 54 35 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 43 21 54 37 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 43 22 54 40 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 46 23 56 40 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 45 21 56 38 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 46 25 54 38 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 47 23 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 48 23 57 38 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHAMBERS-CHILTON-CLAY-
COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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