216
FXUS64 KBMX 071731
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1231 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO NUDGE SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE IN, KEEPING US DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA COAST WILL EJECT ACROSS
TEXAS AND SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SEVERAL BOUTS OF
H5 VORTICITY WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND,
LEADING TO A FEW ROUNDS OVER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE WHERE FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG A STALLED FRONT.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY. THE BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY, BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS BACK TO
THE REGION.
OTHERWISE, NO TEMPERATURE EXTREMES ARE NOTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE LINGERING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO RETURN BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LOW
CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
LOCATIONS THAT SAW PLENTIFUL RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING.
AT THIS TIME, I OPTED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES TO TCL DUE TO INTERMITTENT
OBSERVATIONS
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
AFTER A BRIEF RAIN-FREE PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SPELLS OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLEAR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON
MONDAY AND PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS. MIN RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 45 73 51 78 / 0 0 40 30
ANNISTON 48 73 54 77 / 0 0 50 50
BIRMINGHAM 51 73 56 78 / 0 0 60 40
TUSCALOOSA 52 74 57 78 / 0 0 70 40
CALERA 51 75 56 79 / 0 0 70 50
AUBURN 55 73 59 75 / 0 0 70 80
MONTGOMERY 55 73 58 76 / 0 0 70 80
TROY 56 74 58 76 / 0 10 60 80
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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