659
FXUS64 KBMX 270522
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1222 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
- SEASONABLE CONDITIONS: FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER: THERE IS A MEDIUM FIRE WEATHER RISK THROUGH THIS
WEEK DUE TO DRY FUELS, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED
WINDS.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK, AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY, THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST,
AS A DEEP TROUGH SETS UP TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION
BACK INTO SW FLOW ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR SLOW MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB EVER
SO SLIGHTLY, SETTLING INTO THE UPPER-70S AND LOW 80S.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, IT APPEARS AS IF A WEAK CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER, BEFORE MOVING NE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DURING THIS TIME, A SHORTWAVE WILL BRANCH OFF THIS
CLOSED LOW, WORKING AWAY FROM THE APEX TO THE EAST, RIDING THE SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF INCREASED RAIN PROBABILITIES. AS
THIS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO WORK TO THE NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
AS WILL THE RAINFALL, WITH RAIN STAYING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN TO BE SEEN,
ANY RAINFALL WILL BE A SIGHT FOR SORE EYES.
/44/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR PATCHY GROUND FOG AT KASN
AND KTCL AGAIN THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS
5-8 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH MIXING DURING THE DAY, WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.
NOTE: FALL SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE KASN TALLADEGA TAF BEGAN ON
10/18 00Z AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10/28 18Z.
12
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW US TO MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME MINRH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
25 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH MINIMUM VALUES
INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THE MINRH VALUES AND
DRYING FUELS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MEDIUM THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 76 44 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 77 46 76 47 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 77 50 76 49 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 78 48 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 75 49 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 76 50 75 52 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 77 47 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 77 47 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...12
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