259
FXUS64 KBMX 251739
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1139 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1109 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOW
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING CONCERNS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING PAINTS A FAIRLY ACTIVE PICTURE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AN UPPER TROUGH CAN BE SEEN MOVING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BEGINNING TO EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. TO THE NORTH OF
THE RIDGE, A SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN CUTTING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LOCALLY, MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS A MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW KICKS IN. PWATS ARE UP TO 0.6" ON THE
12Z KBMX SOUNDING. THEY SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 1.25" TOMORROW AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT NEARS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
ENTERS THE CWA, EVENTUALLY SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING LATE IN THE
DAY. WE WILL SEE LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH WHILE SLIGHTLY
DEEPENING ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WHILE CAPE
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 500-700 J/KG RANGE, FORCING WILL BE
LIMITED. HOWEVER, BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY
POTENTIAL HYDRO CONCERNS. THE COMBINATION OF A FAIRLY DEEP WARM
CLOUD DEPTH AND AN ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED REGARDING THE HYDRO THREAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-2" WITH LOW CHANCES FOR AMOUNTS OVER 2".
THE LATEST 12Z HREF HINTS AT A FEW POCKETS OF 2+" WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.
RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NUDGES
SOUTH WHILE WASHING OUT. WE REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAK
RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BECOME REESTABLISHED. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. INTRODUCED
A MENTION OF VCSH FOR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE AS OUR NEXT FRONT NEARS THE REGION. VCSH MAKES IT TO
AUO/MGM BY 12Z. MVFR CEILINGS AND -RA ARE LIKELY FOR BHM/EET/TCL
BY MID MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR IFR CEILINGS TOWARDS THE
END OF THIS TAF WINDOW FOR BHM/EET. AUO IS LIKELY TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS AFTER SUNRISE WITH MGM HANGING ONTO VFR THROUGH THE END
OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL REBOUND TODAY, AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 1-2
INCHES OF RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH SOME
POCKETS OF 2+ INCHES WITH THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. A FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH BY THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING MIN RH VALUES TO DROP BACK
INTO THE 30-40% RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 63 51 66 50 / 10 50 80 60
ANNISTON 65 53 68 51 / 0 40 80 70
BIRMINGHAM 65 55 67 53 / 0 40 70 70
TUSCALOOSA 70 57 72 53 / 0 40 70 70
CALERA 70 54 70 52 / 0 40 80 80
AUBURN 68 56 69 57 / 0 20 70 90
MONTGOMERY 72 57 73 57 / 0 20 60 90
TROY 72 55 74 57 / 0 20 60 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page