510
FXUS64 KBMX 212336
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
- QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRY FUELS, LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY, AND
OCCASIONAL WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
- INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WITH A LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TODAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S EACH AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE
CONTINUOUS DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE, WE CAN EXPECT COOLER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING EACH
NIGHT. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD AND WE GET MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND.
DURING THIS TIME, A FEW SHORTWAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE OTHERWISE
ZONAL FLOW LEADING TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST BY MONDAY. THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
CENTRAL AL MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE STILL
QUITE A FEW QUESTIONS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. ESSENTIALLY, DOES IT BECOME A
DEEPER CLOSED LOW THAT OCCLUDES WITH TIME, OR DOES IT REMAIN AN
OPEN WAVE ALOFT. THESE SCENARIOS PAINT A DIFFERENT PICTURE ON THE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR CENTRAL AL. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST HAS A
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME DETAILS REMAIN TO BE DETERMINED, BUT
BROADLY SPEAKING, THE SETUP AND THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR TAFS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SURFACE RIDGING IN CONTROL ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS. THE CHANCE FOR PATCHY RIVER FOG IS LOWER TONIGHT. THIS IS
THANKS TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIMITED OVERALL
MOISTURE, EXTENSIVE CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NOTED OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE RIVER FOG POTENTIAL.
NOTE: SPRING SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE TAF FOR KASN IS NOW BEING
ISSUED AND WILL RUN THROUGH 04/29 18Z.
08
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS WE NEAR OR EXCEED CRITICAL RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BUT ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE STILL PRESENT
DUE TO THE DRY FUELS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 50 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 53 82 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 57 83 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 56 83 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 55 83 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 58 82 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 58 83 57 85 / 0 10 0 0
TROY 57 83 55 84 / 0 10 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...08
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