674  
FXUS64 KBMX 151752  
AFDBMX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL  
1252 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
FOR 18Z AVIATION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
/UPDATED AT 0334 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2019/  
 
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY HAS CONTINUED ITS NORTHWARD PATH THIS  
MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 30 MPH AND WAS LOCATED IN  
SOUTHWESTERN AR. MUCH LIKE SUNDAY, THE WORST OF THE WEATHER WILL  
BE WEST OF THE STATE, HOWEVER, WE WILL STILL SEE ANOTHER OUTER  
BAND TRY TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. WITH THE  
TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARIES IN ADDITION TO  
THE OUTER BAND, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH AGAIN TODAY.  
WOULD EXPECT MUCH LIKE WE HAD YESTERDAY, WHERE THE MAIN WAVE  
PUSHES INTO THE AREA THEN SETS OFF BOUNDARIES THAT CONTINUE TO  
PUSH NORTH AND EAST.  
 
NOW IN REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER, THE EXACT TRACK OF THE BAND  
TODAY WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL THREAT, ESPECIALLY WITH BRIEF  
SPIN UP TORNADOES. REALLY LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST SHEAR WILL  
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE VERY FAR WESTERN TIP OF LAMAR  
AND MARION HAVE BEEN CLIPPED BY A MARGINAL RISK, BUT WILL NOT  
MENTION IT AT THIS TIME IN THE HWO. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, IT WILL  
BE DIFFICULT TO PUT AN EXACT TIMING ON THE OUTFLOWS AND BEST RAIN  
CHANCES, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE  
INCREASE AFTER 9 AM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE  
WEST, WITH THE BULK OF RAIN AND CLOUDS TO LOW 90S IN THE EAST.  
 
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL  
ONCE AGAIN DISSIPATE AND RETROGRADE BACK TO THE MAIN CENTER.  
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE EARLY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD  
OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.  
 
16  
   
LONG TERM
 
 
/UPDATED AT 0334 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2019/  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
AS THE REMNANTS OF BARRY MOVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY, A ZONE OF RELATIVELY HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL BE  
ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR  
NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME  
HEATING WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-59 ON TUESDAY AND NORTH  
OF I-20 ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
A PORTION OF THE SURFACE TO 500 MB TROUGH ASSOCIATED BARRY'S  
REMNANTS SHOULD MEANDER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA FOR  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. HIGHER  
MOISTURE CONTENT NEAR THE LINGERING TROUGH COULD YIELD SCATTERED  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON  
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE AREA-WIDE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH  
SUNDAY IF SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES ARE PULLED BACK WESTWARD ACROSS  
THE FORECAST AREA AS INDICATED BY CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE.  
 
87/GRANTHAM  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.  
 
OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY CONTINUE  
TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS  
AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AT KTCL SO  
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH. BY 18Z, THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL REACH  
KBHM AND KEET. LOWER VISIBILITY AND GUSTS UP TO 25KTS ARE  
POSSIBLE. NOT MUCH LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED THUS FAR BUT DID  
KEEP VCTS IN FOR KBHM/KEET/KANB/KASN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HIGH  
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE EASTERN  
HALF OF THE CWA RELATIVELY DRY. AS A RESULT I HAVE NOT INCLUDED A  
MENTION OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FOR KANB/KASN. ALSO, IT DOES  
NOT LOOK LIKE THE OUTER RAINBANDS WILL HOLD TOGETHER THAT FAR  
EAST. MEANWHILE, DOWN SOUTH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARDS TOWARDS KMGM AND KTOI.  
I HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR BOTH OF THESE AREAS. ALL AREAS OF RAIN  
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AT ALL LOCATIONS BY 01-02Z.  
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN SITES.  
TOMORROW WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY 5-7KTS WITH CIGS  
RISING BY 15Z. PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION ANY AREAS OF  
RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  
 
07  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
 
WITH BARRY'S REMNANTS CENTERED IN ARKANSAS, THE EASTERN EDGE OF  
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS INTERSTATE 65 TODAY.  
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND  
BECOME CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. WITH A MOIST  
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT  
THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
GADSDEN 70 92 71 91 72 / 30 10 20 30 20  
ANNISTON 72 93 73 92 73 / 30 10 10 20 20  
BIRMINGHAM 73 93 74 92 74 / 20 10 20 20 20  
TUSCALOOSA 72 92 74 93 74 / 20 20 10 20 10  
CALERA 71 92 72 92 73 / 20 10 10 20 10  
AUBURN 72 92 73 92 74 / 30 10 10 10 10  
MONTGOMERY 72 94 73 95 74 / 30 10 10 10 10  
TROY 71 94 72 93 73 / 20 10 10 10 10  
 

 
   
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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