196
FXUS64 KBMX 290838
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
338 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 338 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
- SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. THREATS WILL INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS,
TORNADOES, AND LARGE HAIL, BUT THE RELATIVE INTENSITY OF EACH
THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE FACTORS AND CONVECTIVE
MODE.
- A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SCOOTING EAST TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST AS A SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW RETURNS CAN BE SEEN ON THE KBMX
RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. HOWEVER, IT
IS UNLIKELY MUCH OF THIS IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE AS THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN DRY. A STEADY MOISTENING THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALLOW
FOR RAIN TO BEGIN TO REACH THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SEVERAL BOUTS OF H7-H5
VORTICITY STREAM THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE
INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG, 0-6KM SHEAR ~30
KNOTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF THUNDER
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL, EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.5" THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THAT
SAID, THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER .5" ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
KNOCKED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER/RAIN CHANCES WILL HELP KEEP US A BIT
COOLER. OTHERWISE, TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AFTER
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT, A SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL HELP WARM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO THE 80S ON
SUNDAY.
95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY AS IT DRIFTS
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AN INITIAL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW, WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IT APPEARS A WEAK
PERTURBATION WILL INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS SE ARKANSAS/NW
MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY EVENING ALONG THE FRONT AND A POSSIBLE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH, UNDERGOING SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD WITH A MESO-LOW POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
BE SUGGESTING THESE STORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS BY THE
TIME THEY REACH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
SHEAR PROFILES WOULD ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. THE
EVENTUAL ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE MONDAY MORNING SHOULD AID THIS
CONVECTION AS IT SWEEPS EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD, EVENTUALLY EXITING
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONVECTIVE MODE ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENTS TO THE LOW-
LEVEL WIND FIELDS/HODOGRAPHS WILL DETERMINE WHAT THE HIGHEST
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE, I.E. DAMAGING WINDS WITH EMBEDDED
TORNADOES WITH AN MCS VS. TORNADOES AND HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS,
WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT SOME FLAVOR OF
SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, AS MID TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS COMBINE WITH STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, RESULTING IN A VOLATILE AIR MASS FOR THAT TIME
OF MORNING WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. CONVECTION WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENCE AND
CYCLONIC FLOW/HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
MESOSCALE TRENDS FOR ANY POTENTIAL EXPANSION TO THE ENHANCED RISK.
A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, BEFORE THE FRONT QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL SET UP IN THE LONG TERM WITH A WESTERN
TROUGH, AND A STRONG 591 DECAMETER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTING UP IN
THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR-RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. BEFORE THIS RIDGE
FULLY SETS IN, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A STRONG MID-LATITUDE
CYCLONE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND IT'S UNCERTAIN IF ANY CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT
INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. BUT IF ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP OR
MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONDITIONALLY BE
FAVORABLE FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER. WITH FLOW NOT BEING
ANTICYCLONIC YET LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAY NEED TO
BEGIN MESSAGING A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. ALSO, WITH
A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE IN A "RING OF FIRE"- LIKE PATTERN, WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
IN CASE THEY ARE ABLE TO LOCALLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE, GIVEN
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ASN WHERE SOME MVFR HZ REMAINS IN PLACE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A BRIEF TEMPO FOR VIS REDUCTIONS THERE. VCSH SPREADS
OVER MOST TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE. NOT ALL ACTIVITY ON RADAR WILL
MAKE IT TO THE GROUND INITIALLY BUT AS THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN
THROUGH THE DAY, WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE RAIN REPORTED. GREATER
CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY COME THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
ALL BUT MGM. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS BEGIN TO SETTLE IN TOWARDS THE END
OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY. MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL MAINLY BE ABOVE 50 PERCENT EXCEPT IN FAR EASTERN
ALABAMA, WHILE SOUTHERLY 20FT WINDS WILL GUST TO 15 TO 20 MPH AT
TIMES. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 76 60 76 62 / 40 60 70 70
ANNISTON 76 60 77 63 / 40 60 80 70
BIRMINGHAM 76 62 77 65 / 50 60 70 80
TUSCALOOSA 74 62 80 65 / 60 50 60 80
CALERA 74 62 77 64 / 50 60 80 70
AUBURN 76 62 75 65 / 40 50 80 40
MONTGOMERY 78 63 81 66 / 50 50 70 40
TROY 78 62 79 65 / 40 50 70 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM....32/JDAVIS
AVIATION...95
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