357
FXUS64 KBMX 070538
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1238 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
- HEAT INDICES: WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TODAY,
HEAT INDICES WILL STILL REACH 100-105 DEGREES. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER, BUT PLEASE CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT
SAFETY.
- RAIN AND STORMS: DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL SHIFT
RAIN ACTIVITY TOWARD THE SOUTH. BY MID-WEEK, RISING HUMIDITY
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE (10 TO 20%) THROUGH
4 AM, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE EARLIER RAINFALL,
PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH SUNRISE.
FOR THE UPCOMING DAY, SURFACE FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY, RESULTING IN
A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE (CWA), WHILE SCATTERED STORMS REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST SOUTH OF I-20. AFTERNOON SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO MIX INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, KEEPING HEAT
INDICES JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE NO ADVISORY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY, HEAT INDICES WILL RISE TO 100-105 DEGREES.
THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS NEAR THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH, PROVIDING HEAT RELIEF FOR EASTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THE 500 MB RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY BY MIDWEEK. HIGH
CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT RISING HEIGHTS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE MAINTAINS
CONSISTENCY IN MOVING AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WESTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, TRANSPORTING ADDITIONAL
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. CONSEQUENTLY, DIURNAL SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
LOW TO MID-90S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY; HOWEVER, CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES
LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT TO PENETRATE AS FAR
SOUTH AS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF
CYCLE. WITH THAT SAID, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. AUO/MGM ARE LIKELY TO SEE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. WE ARE MAINTAINING A 30%
PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION AT MGM AND AUO DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT
LOCALIZED COVERAGE.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED AT TCL DUE TO MISSING OBSERVATIONS.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 40% THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. WHILE DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW (10-30%) THROUGH
MIDWEEK, THEY WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAIN LOW FOR NOW, BUT DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE WILL
ELEVATE THESE RISKS BY THE END OF THE WEEK IF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
REMAINS SCARCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 91 70 90 69 / 10 10 10 0
ANNISTON 89 70 88 70 / 20 20 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 93 72 89 72 / 20 10 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 98 73 92 74 / 20 10 10 0
CALERA 94 72 90 72 / 20 20 10 0
AUBURN 88 71 87 72 / 30 20 20 0
MONTGOMERY 95 73 92 73 / 30 20 20 10
TROY 94 70 90 70 / 40 30 30 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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