674
FXUS64 KBMX 151752
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1252 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2019
UPDATE
FOR 18Z AVIATION.
SHORT TERM
/UPDATED AT 0334 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2019/
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY HAS CONTINUED ITS NORTHWARD PATH THIS
MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 30 MPH AND WAS LOCATED IN
SOUTHWESTERN AR. MUCH LIKE SUNDAY, THE WORST OF THE WEATHER WILL
BE WEST OF THE STATE, HOWEVER, WE WILL STILL SEE ANOTHER OUTER
BAND TRY TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. WITH THE
TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARIES IN ADDITION TO
THE OUTER BAND, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH AGAIN TODAY.
WOULD EXPECT MUCH LIKE WE HAD YESTERDAY, WHERE THE MAIN WAVE
PUSHES INTO THE AREA THEN SETS OFF BOUNDARIES THAT CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTH AND EAST.
NOW IN REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER, THE EXACT TRACK OF THE BAND
TODAY WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL THREAT, ESPECIALLY WITH BRIEF
SPIN UP TORNADOES. REALLY LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST SHEAR WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE VERY FAR WESTERN TIP OF LAMAR
AND MARION HAVE BEEN CLIPPED BY A MARGINAL RISK, BUT WILL NOT
MENTION IT AT THIS TIME IN THE HWO. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PUT AN EXACT TIMING ON THE OUTFLOWS AND BEST RAIN
CHANCES, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER 9 AM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE
WEST, WITH THE BULK OF RAIN AND CLOUDS TO LOW 90S IN THE EAST.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
ONCE AGAIN DISSIPATE AND RETROGRADE BACK TO THE MAIN CENTER.
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE EARLY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
16
LONG TERM
/UPDATED AT 0334 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2019/
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS THE REMNANTS OF BARRY MOVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, A ZONE OF RELATIVELY HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-59 ON TUESDAY AND NORTH
OF I-20 ON WEDNESDAY.
A PORTION OF THE SURFACE TO 500 MB TROUGH ASSOCIATED BARRY'S
REMNANTS SHOULD MEANDER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT NEAR THE LINGERING TROUGH COULD YIELD SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE AREA-WIDE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY IF SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES ARE PULLED BACK WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS INDICATED BY CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE.
87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AT KTCL SO
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH. BY 18Z, THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL REACH
KBHM AND KEET. LOWER VISIBILITY AND GUSTS UP TO 25KTS ARE
POSSIBLE. NOT MUCH LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED THUS FAR BUT DID
KEEP VCTS IN FOR KBHM/KEET/KANB/KASN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA RELATIVELY DRY. AS A RESULT I HAVE NOT INCLUDED A
MENTION OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FOR KANB/KASN. ALSO, IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THE OUTER RAINBANDS WILL HOLD TOGETHER THAT FAR
EAST. MEANWHILE, DOWN SOUTH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARDS TOWARDS KMGM AND KTOI.
I HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR BOTH OF THESE AREAS. ALL AREAS OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AT ALL LOCATIONS BY 01-02Z.
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN SITES.
TOMORROW WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY 5-7KTS WITH CIGS
RISING BY 15Z. PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION ANY AREAS OF
RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
07
FIRE WEATHER
WITH BARRY'S REMNANTS CENTERED IN ARKANSAS, THE EASTERN EDGE OF
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS INTERSTATE 65 TODAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
BECOME CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. WITH A MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 92 71 91 72 / 30 10 20 30 20
ANNISTON 72 93 73 92 73 / 30 10 10 20 20
BIRMINGHAM 73 93 74 92 74 / 20 10 20 20 20
TUSCALOOSA 72 92 74 93 74 / 20 20 10 20 10
CALERA 71 92 72 92 73 / 20 10 10 20 10
AUBURN 72 92 73 92 74 / 30 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 72 94 73 95 74 / 30 10 10 10 10
TROY 71 94 72 93 73 / 20 10 10 10 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/
NONE.
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