504
FXUS64 KBMX 141108
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
608 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
- MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT: A SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING 105-110 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.
- CONVECTION: SUMMERTIME PRECIPITATION REMAINS LIMITED, WITH LOW
TO MODERATE (20-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
AS OF WRITING, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LINGERING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKS NORTH
ACROSS THE STATE. BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM THE LAST FEW NIGHTS,
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY FIZZLING OUT BY MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS
WOULD MAINLY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH A SLIGHT JAUNT TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEK,
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO STEADILY WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS EVENTUALLY SETTLING INTO THE 95-101F RANGE FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THESE
TEMPS WILL BUMP HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA
LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. A HEAT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THESE WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY
BRIEFLY REACH 110-112 DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AT THIS TIME. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A TYPICALLY SUMMERTIME CONVECTION
REGIME WITH LOW TO MODERATE (20-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AS DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS INLAND. THOSE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY
AS RIDGING HELPS KEEP A LID ON THINGS.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VERY HIGH (90-100%) PROBABILITIES FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AGAIN TODAY (20-40% CHANCES), WITH PROB30
MENTIONS FOR TSRA AT ALL SITES EXCEPT TCL, WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR
OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS RIDGING BUILDS THIS
WEEKEND, CONDITIONS WILL TURN DRIER, WITH MINRH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
LATE WEEK, WITH THE ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, BUT MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE IF
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS PERSIST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 98 76 99 75 / 30 10 10 0
ANNISTON 95 75 96 74 / 40 10 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 97 77 98 76 / 30 10 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 99 77 101 76 / 20 10 10 0
CALERA 98 76 99 75 / 30 10 10 0
AUBURN 93 76 94 76 / 40 10 40 10
MONTGOMERY 99 77 99 76 / 40 20 30 10
TROY 97 75 97 74 / 40 20 50 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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