528
FXUS64 KBMX 300513
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1213 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- HEAT IMPACT: HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S COMBINED
WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105
DEGREES THROUGH MIDWEEK, MAINTAINING AN ELEVATED HEAT RISK. A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM WEDNESDAY.
- PRECIPITATION: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, INITIALLY AFFECTING THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BEFORE PROGRESSING SOUTHWEST. SOME
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE MIGRATING NORTHEAST,
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR SAVANNAH, GEORGIA. EXPECT THE SURFACE FRONT TO
LOSE DEFINITION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. AS A RESULT, THE WEAKENING "BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT" WILL BE FORCED SOUTHWEST INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES QUITE UNSTABLE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HIGH
HUMIDITY. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY BENEATH SUFFICIENT DRIER
AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY THAT WOULD RESULT IN
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT, THOUGH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE
PROPAGATING SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. THE HIGHEST SHOWER AND STORM
POTENTIAL WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS OUR EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES THROUGH MIDDAY, THEN EXPANDING WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH
TIME. OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, HEAT
INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES. A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST-
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF COAST REGION BY THE EVENING HOURS
WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID AND VERY WARM OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, PROLONGING HEAT RISK EFFECTS AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN EXCEED 100 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
RIDGING MIGRATING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING, WE WILL SEE
BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
05
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. DUE
TO PERSISTENT MORNING PATTERNS, TEMPORARY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE AT EET AND TCL. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INITIATING ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, MOVING WEST
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IMPACT IS AT AUO
AND MGM, WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS AT EET.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AUO TAF UNTIL DATA
ISSUES WITH OBSERVATIONS ARE RESOLVED.
16
FIRE WEATHER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES THROUGH MIDWEEK, DRIVEN BY HIGH HUMIDITY
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
REMAIN LOW, AS HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 97 77 95 76 / 20 10 30 10
ANNISTON 95 76 94 75 / 30 20 30 10
BIRMINGHAM 98 78 96 77 / 20 20 30 10
TUSCALOOSA 97 78 96 77 / 20 20 30 10
CALERA 98 77 96 76 / 30 20 30 10
AUBURN 93 76 92 75 / 50 30 20 0
MONTGOMERY 95 76 94 75 / 50 30 10 0
TROY 93 74 92 73 / 60 30 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BIBB-BLOUNT-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-
HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-PERRY-PICKENS-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CLAY-CLEBURNE-
COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-
RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...16
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