644
FXUS64 KBMX 182349
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
649 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
- CRITICALLY DRY FUELS, STRONG WINDS, AND LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ELEVATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
THIS AFTERNOON SATELLITE IS INDICATING SOME DEVELOPING CUMULUS
FIELDS ALONG WITH AMPLE MID/UPPER CLOUDS AS MOISTURE INCREASES
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS MOVING TO THE NE ACROSS THE ERN 1/2 OF CANADA. AS IT DOES SO,
IT WILL DRAG A FRONTAL SYSTEM SEWD ACROSS AL THROUGH TONIGHT. WE
DO HAVE SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF W
TN/N MS AHEAD OF IT, ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIRES
GUIDANCE, IS UNFORTUNATELY NOT INDICATING VERY MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH
AMOUNTS OF RAIN SCATTERED ABOUT FOR SOME LUCKY FOLKS IN THE NW AND
FAR WRN COUNTIES OF C AL THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, MOST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED ARE UNDER 0.25 INCH. SO, WHILE THIS WON'T PUT MUCH DENT
IN THE DROUGHT, WE WILL TAKE WHAT ANY AMOUNTS THAT WE CAN GET AS
OUR RIVERS ARE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FLOWS. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
LOOK FOR A NICE COOL DOWN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON. OUR AIRMASS STARTS TO MODERATE, WARMING BACK UP AS WE HEAD
INTO MID WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES E THEN SE WITH OUR LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNING BACK AROUND.
CONDITIONS WILL BE BREEZY ON SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL BE KEEPING
AN EYE ON THIS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ATTM, WIND GUSTS
PROBABILITIES LOOK TO TAPER DOWN SOME BEFORE THE LOWER RHS KICK
SUN AFTERNOON. SO, WILL FORGO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NOW. WILL
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF GUIDANCE COMES IN
FOR SUN.
LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITIES ARE PRESENT IN EXTENDED GUIDANCE FOR
ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN STARTING BACK ON FRI WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY NEXT WEEKEND.
08
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
ANOTHER FAIR AND WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID-80S. THANKFULLY, THIS PATTERN WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY THE EVENING HOURS, AS RAIN CHANCES BEGIN
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE BAD NEWS IS, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK MEAGER AT BEST, WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING
BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO DROP SOME 15-20 DEGREES BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY RANGING IN THE UPPER-60S AND
LOW-70S. GIVEN THE STIFF WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT, AND VERY LOW RH
VALUES, WE MAY PUSH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS SOME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER, THAT WILL NEED FURTHER TUNING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE WEEK IS "MORE OF THE SAME" AS A SLIGHT
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB, REACHING THE MID-80S ONCE MORE COME THURSDAY, AND THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARING TO BE NEXT WEEKEND.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA RIGHT
NOW WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT. THUNDER IS GENERALLY LIMITED TO ONLY THE FAR NORTH AND
WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT ANY TAF LOCATIONS. WINDS WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE STRONG WITH WESTERLY COMPONENTS AT 12 TO 15 KNOTS
SUSTAINED AND 25 KNOT GUSTS. WE WILL SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR 6 TO 8 HOURS, THEN CLEARING LATE MORNING
BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AGAIN LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NOTE: SPRING SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF KASN TAF ARE NOW BEING ISSUED AND
WILL RUN THROUGH 04/29 18Z.
16
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TODAY, WITH
FUELS REMAINING CRITICALLY DRY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY, BUT IT WON'T BE THE DROUGHT BUSTING
RAIN THAT WE DESPERATELY NEED. WINDS WILL BE STRONG OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WELL, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, BEFORE
DECREASING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FROM HERE, LOW MINRH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, RANGING IN THE LOW TO
MID-20%'S.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 18:
KBHM: 91/2006
KEET: 90/2006
KANB: 90/1955
KMGM: 91/2006
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 44 68 40 75 / 80 0 0 0
ANNISTON 47 69 41 75 / 80 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 48 69 45 77 / 80 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 47 72 44 79 / 80 0 0 0
CALERA 48 71 43 78 / 80 0 0 0
AUBURN 51 69 48 77 / 50 20 0 0
MONTGOMERY 50 71 44 79 / 50 20 0 0
TROY 50 70 45 78 / 40 20 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08/44
AVIATION...16
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