058
FXUS64 KBMX 090527
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1227 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- PERSISTENT HEAT: AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID-90S FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK, KEEPING HEAT
INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100 DEGREES. TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WITH ANY
EXTENDED AFTERNOON OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND ELEVATED HEAT WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY WEATHER STORY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW TO MID-
90S INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES CONSISTENTLY TOPPING
TRIPLE DIGITS. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
OFFICIAL HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, PROLONGED EXPOSURE OUTDOORS
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. BY FRIDAY,
THE RIDGE SHOULD COMPRESS SLIGHTLY AS A DEEP TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AS THE FRONT LOSES
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, IT IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR NORTHERN
TENNESSEE, BRINGING MORE ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCES WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW
WEEKS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
REBUILD OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES, WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS STRONGER AND QUICKER, WHILE OTHERS SUGGEST A MORE
GRADUAL RETURN AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW. ULTIMATELY, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF IN
SOME CAPACITY, PUSHING AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MID-90S.
16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE EAST FROM 5-8 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING, EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
AMD NOT SKED AT TCL DUE TO MISSING OBSERVATIONS.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 40% THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. WHILE DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW (10-20%) THROUGH
MIDWEEK, THEY WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER. WHILE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW FOR NOW, INCREASING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PUSH THESE CONCERNS UP BY NEXT WEEK IF NO
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IS SEEN OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 93 69 95 70 / 10 10 10 10
ANNISTON 91 70 93 70 / 10 10 20 10
BIRMINGHAM 93 72 95 72 / 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 96 73 97 72 / 10 10 10 10
CALERA 93 72 94 72 / 10 10 20 20
AUBURN 90 72 91 73 / 10 10 30 20
MONTGOMERY 93 73 94 73 / 10 10 30 20
TROY 93 72 93 71 / 10 10 50 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page