355
FXUS64 KBMX 310728
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
228 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 224 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- FROST DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS WITHIN
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING RIVER BASINS WILL BE MOST PRONE
TO FROST DEVELOPMENT. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9
AM THIS MORNING, AND ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM SATURDAY MORNING.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY, THANKS TO ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION.
VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME, WITH NO
IMPROVEMENT TO THE OVERALL LONGER TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
CALM, CHILLY, AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PREVAILING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE CLOSED LOW NOW LONG
GONE. WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING, WE'RE SEEING OUR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS SUCH AS GADSDEN AND
HALEYVILLE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH SOME OTHER VALLEY
LOCATIONS ALSO OBSERVING SIMILAR CONDITIONS. A FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 9AM THIS
MORNING. NOT ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE ADVISORY WILL SEE FROST
DEVELOPMENT AND THAT WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ANOTHER WRINKLE IN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST THAT WE STARTED TO SEE A
POSSIBILITY FOR BY THE END OF THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT YESTERDAY IS FOG
FORMATION. THE AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOSED LOW
YESTERDAY DID NOT END UP BEING OVERLY DRY IN NATURE WITH DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT THIS HOUR. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED TO THE DEWPOINT AND SHALLOW FOG
HAS DEVELOPED AT SOME OBSERVATION SITES. WE'RE ALSO SEEING FOG
DEVELOPMENT ADJACENT TO AND OVER THE RIVER BASINS AND LARGER LAKES
DUE TO THE WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES. YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE MOST
RIVER AND STREAM BASINS SHOWING UP ON THE GOES-19 NIGHT FOG
PRODUCT AT THIS HOUR. FOG WAS ADDED INTO THE FORECAST AS A RESULT,
PRIMARILY ALONG THESE BASINS THROUGH 7AM.
A VERY TRANQUIL HALLOWEEN WILL BE ON TAP ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A COOL
NORTHWEST WIND BETWEEN 5 AND 10MPH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME CALM
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN.
CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THOSE WHO WILL BE TRICK OR
TREATING THIS EVENING, DROPPING INTO THE 50S BY 7PM AND 40S BY 9PM.
ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AT THE VERY LEAST FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS DIPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 30S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
UPPER 30S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ELSEWHERE.
BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WE'LL SEE ANOTHER 500MB LONGWAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS, WITH AXIS MOVING
TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH BY SATURDAY EVENING. AFTER WAITING THREE DAYS
FOR BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE, WE'RE FINALLY ZONING IN
ON A SOLUTION OF WHERE A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE EARLY THIS MORNING IS ADVERTISING A TRACK ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD
KEEP RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MORE
REFINEMENTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED NOW THAT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING, BUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS (20-40%) FOR SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-
22 AND I-20 CORRIDORS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL ALSO AFFECT
DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THESE SAME AREAS, WHICH MAY NEED TO BE LOWER THAN
THE CURRENT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES EAST, A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
QUICKLY USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION
WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE CLOUDS ARE ALLOWED TO CLEAR. A
WARM AND DRY 500MB PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP THROUGH THURSDAY
OF NEXT WEEK AS A 593 TO 594 DECAMETER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS. PATCHY FOG FORMATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SOME OF THE RIVER BASINS, AND WILL MAINLY
BE SHALLOW IN NATURE. TCL WAS ALREADY OBSERVING SOME OF THIS
SHALLOW FOG, AND WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG FORMATION NEAR MGM
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. FOR NOW, MIFG WAS ADDED IN AS A TEMPO TO
ATTEMPT TO CAPTURE THOSE OBSERVED CONDITIONS AT TCL. OTHERWISE,
CLEAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT REMAINING TERMINALS. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON IS
FORECAST WITH NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 7 AND 10 KNOTS,
BECOMING CALM OR VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND 20FT WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINRH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP THE MOST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO
THE UPPER 30S, WITH LOW TO MID 40S FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPAND IN AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH MINRHS DROPPING
INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 30S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
FORTUNATELY, 20FT WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. RHS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 65 34 64 43 / 0 0 0 20
ANNISTON 64 37 65 44 / 0 0 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 65 40 65 45 / 0 0 0 20
TUSCALOOSA 66 39 66 45 / 0 0 0 20
CALERA 65 38 67 45 / 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 63 41 65 46 / 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 67 39 69 45 / 0 0 0 10
TROY 65 39 68 45 / 0 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-
COOSA-DALLAS-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARENGO-
MARION-PERRY-PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...56/GDG
AVIATION...56/GDG
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