338
FXUS64 KBMX 162016
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
316 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- HEAVY RAINFALL: A WET PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE FORECAST THIS
WEEK, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5)
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENTLY, WE ARE WATCHING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
PUMPING IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE, RAINFALL HAS BEEN ABUNDANT
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT, LIGHTNING HAS BEEN CONTAINED TO THE COAST, BUT WE CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRIKE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. AS WE WORK THROUGH THE NIGHT, WE SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING OF THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH, WITH GENERALLY A BREAK ON
WEDNESDAY AS MUCH OF THE ENERGY IN THE SOUTH FOCUSES TOWARD THE
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE. LATEST
GUIDANCE TAKES THE SYSTEM THROUGH LOUISIANA BEFORE DISSIPATING
INTO A DEPRESSION IN WESTERN MISSISSIPPI.
AFTER A DRIER DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WE WILL SEE THE EDGE OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM WORK INTO THE WESTERN AREAS ON THURSDAY MORNING.
IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR
AREA, BUT IT WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THE FINAL
POSITION OF THE REMNANT LOW. BEING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
LOW, BANDING IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE. WITH THAT BANDING, WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR BRIEF SPIN-UPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN ADDITION
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
A FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH ON FRIDAY, BUT WE WILL REMAIN IN A
PERSISTENTLY WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST
OF NEXT WEEK. HOPEFULLY, EVERYONE GOT THEIR YARDS CUT OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. IF NOT, THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW ON SATURDAY AS
MOST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MORE SUMMERTIME-TYPE CONVECTION.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH
ALL TERMINALS EXPERIENCING REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS LATE
AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
MENTION IN THE AFD AND NOT IN THE TAFS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL
BE IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY CAUSED BY PERSISTENT RAINFALL AND
DRIZZLE. ADDITIONALLY, IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
BEHIND THE RAIN AFTER 17/03Z. A PROB30 REMAINS FOR THE SOUTH,
WHERE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST CONCENTRATED.
16
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AS A FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE
REGION. WE WILL REMAIN IN A WET PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP MINRH VALUES ABOVE 50% THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 67 87 73 83 / 30 20 40 90
ANNISTON 68 86 73 82 / 40 40 40 90
BIRMINGHAM 68 87 73 83 / 30 40 50 90
TUSCALOOSA 69 87 74 83 / 30 40 60 90
CALERA 68 87 73 81 / 40 50 50 90
AUBURN 70 83 73 81 / 70 70 40 100
MONTGOMERY 70 84 73 82 / 60 60 50 100
TROY 69 83 73 82 / 70 70 50 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-
PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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