345
FXUS64 KBMX 010522
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1222 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
- HEAT: HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S COMBINED WITH
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES
THROUGH THURSDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM
THURSDAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS: PORTIONS OF THE REGION ARE UNDER MARGINAL RISKS
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) TODAY AND THURSDAY, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY HAZARD IF STORMS DO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105F AGAIN TODAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MANY COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL ALABAMA, WITH ONLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS BEING EXCLUDED. HEAT INDICES IN THESE COUNTIES WILL
STILL LIKELY BE OVER 100F.
A LEVEL 1 MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINTAINED
FOR TODAY AND AGAIN FOR TOMORROW, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE
PRIMARY RISK. LATEST CAMS HAVE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE TODAY VS. YESTERDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CONCENTRATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT, ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
IN THIS HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT WILL CARRY A MICROBURST RISK.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO HAVE A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY, WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.
BY THE WEEKEND, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN. THIS SLIGHT
PATTERN CHANGE WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST TO THE LOW
TO MID 90S INSTEAD.
12
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE NIGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME
TEMPO MVFR VISIBILITY AT EET, TCL, MGM, AND AUO RIGHT AT SUNRISE.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING;
THEREFORE, I HAVE ADJUSTED THE PROB30 FOR TSRA TO BEGIN AT 20Z
TOMORROW AT BHM, EET, AND TCL. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
SHOWERS WORK INTO MGM. I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE
A PROB30, BUT I WILL ADD IN VCSH AT 00Z THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF CYCLE.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AUO TAF UNTIL DATA
ISSUES WITH OBSERVATIONS ARE RESOLVED.
16
FIRE WEATHER
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE MAIN AXIS OF RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND THURSDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN
LOW, AS WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 96 76 97 75 / 40 40 30 20
ANNISTON 95 75 95 74 / 40 40 30 20
BIRMINGHAM 97 77 96 77 / 40 40 30 20
TUSCALOOSA 97 77 95 77 / 50 40 20 10
CALERA 97 76 97 75 / 40 40 20 10
AUBURN 94 75 93 75 / 20 10 10 0
MONTGOMERY 96 75 95 75 / 20 10 10 0
TROY 94 74 94 73 / 10 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-COOSA-
DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LOWNDES-
MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...16
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page