363
FXUS64 KBMX 101728
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1228 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THREATS
INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES. BRIEF, MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN DOWNPOURS.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE UPPER 30S FRIDAY MORNING WHEN CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF PATCHY FROST.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH
FREEZING NEXT MONDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. A CUT-OFF LOW THAT HAS BEEN IN
THE SW US IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND TEXAS THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEPENS AS IT REACHES THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. THESE TWO SYSTEMS
ESSENTIALLY BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED FORCING ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
THIS IS WHERE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COMES INTO PLAY - AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA, EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EVEN WITH THE OVERNIGHT TIMING,
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE 800-1000 J/KG RANGE, IF NOT HIGHER DEPENDING
ON WHAT MODEL YOU LOOK AT. SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A LOT OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE OF A
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT VS. A TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER, IF ANY
STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, OR
IF ANY STORM INTERACTIONS ALONG THE FRONT LEAD TO ENHANCE STORM-
RELATIVE SHEAR, WE COULD SEE A TORNADO THREAT PRESENT ITSELF. FOR
THAT REASON, WE'LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS, TORNADOES, AND HAIL FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
BY 7-10AM THURSDAY, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
AREA, REALLY ENDING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN/STORM CHANCES IN CENTRAL
AL. COLDER AIR BUILDS IN QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY BEING 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON WEDNESDAY. WE COULD
SEE SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL AL
FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 30S UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND MOSTLY CALM WINDS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR
EAST, WE GET SOME COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE VALLEYS
IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AL.
WE'LL HAVE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WE GET A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE'S
SOME DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
LEADING TO MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
WE GET ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. FOR NOW, I'LL
KEEP 20-30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT WE'LL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO DETERMINE ANY
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE TODAY AND ARE CURRENTLY SITTING RIGHT AT
MVFR TO VFR. THIS SHOULD ALL GO VFR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND WE
SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND
EVENING. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CIGS
DROPPING BACK TO MVFR TO IFR GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-14Z. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP ANY VIS RESTRICTIONS SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. RHS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 30% RANGE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR MASS IS IN PLACE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 62 81 42 58 / 10 10 100 20
ANNISTON 63 82 47 60 / 10 10 100 30
BIRMINGHAM 65 82 45 59 / 10 20 100 20
TUSCALOOSA 64 83 47 63 / 10 30 100 20
CALERA 64 83 47 62 / 10 10 100 30
AUBURN 63 83 53 63 / 10 0 90 50
MONTGOMERY 64 85 51 63 / 10 10 90 50
TROY 63 85 53 65 / 0 0 80 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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