275
FXUS64 KBMX 211127
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
627 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
- HEAT: MAJOR HEATRISK WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH HEAT INDICES
FORECAST BETWEEN 105 TO 109 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.
- THUNDERSTORMS: SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL ALABAMA, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
REMAINING THE MAIN CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MODELS ARE NOW RESOLVING
THE WEATHER PATTERN MORE CLEARLY. THE CURRENT COMPLEX OF STORMS
IN THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE EAST WHILE SAGGING SOUTH, CLEARING
BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS RELAXED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING, ISOLATED FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN,
PARTICULARLY IN TERRAIN-INFLUENCED AREAS. ACTIVITY DEVELOPED AS A
SHORTWAVE TRACKED ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTHWEST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS LIKELY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER NORTHERN FRONT PUSHES THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THROUGH, AIDED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THIS SLOW-MOVING
BOUNDARY, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATES THROUGH WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW TO MID-90S OVER THE
COMING DAYS. PERSISTENT HUMIDITY WILL PROMOTE DAILY HEAT INDICES
IN THE 105-109 DEGREE RANGE TODAY. I HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. DRIER AIR ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND WILL HELP KEEP HEAT
INDICES IN CHECK, GENERALLY IN THE 100-104 RANGE.
16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BHM AND EET SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY,
FOLLOWED BY CHANCES INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. TCL MAY EXPERIENCE SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH NOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR MGM AND AUO, CONDITIONS ARE
GOOD THROUGH 13Z THEN THESE SITES MAY EXPERIENCE SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THE DEVELOPING LINE AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST.
OVERALL, A 30-40% CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
FORECAST WITH CHANCES DECREASING ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 21Z AND
THE SOUTH AFTER 03Z.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
05
FIRE WEATHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY, WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND TAKES HOLD THIS
WEEKEND. DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL
RESULT IN A DECREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY (35 TO 45%) FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT,
WHICH SHOULD NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING
THIS PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 94 70 93 69 / 20 0 0 0
ANNISTON 92 70 91 69 / 30 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 93 72 92 71 / 30 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 96 73 97 72 / 30 10 0 10
CALERA 94 72 93 71 / 30 10 0 0
AUBURN 90 72 90 72 / 50 30 0 0
MONTGOMERY 95 73 96 72 / 50 20 0 0
TROY 94 71 94 70 / 60 50 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...05
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