265
FXUS64 KBMX 281743
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1143 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1127 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CENTRAL
ALABAMA.
- A DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PULLING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS WEAK RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
MUCH DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE WITH GOES TPW IMAGERY PICKING UP PWATS
GENERALLY FROM 0.3-0.5". A THIN LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH THE DRIER AIR LED TO SOME STUBBORN DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER
MANY OF THE SAME LOCATIONS. HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A ~70% CHANCE
OF VIS LESS THAN 1 MILE. LATEST RAP/NAM GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS
THIS WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FROM 1-5MB WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 1 DEGREE. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPS
AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
WE LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ATTEMPT TO HEAD OUR WAY BUT ARE STEERED AWAY
BY MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. A STRONGER WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE
PLAINS BY THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN BACK
INTO THE FORECAST.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR FOG APPEARS LIKELY AT AUO/MGM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. MGM HAS THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR A BRIEF STINT OF LIFR VIS AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO FALL
INTO THE 25-35% RANGE ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS. FURTHER EAST WILL
SEE MIN RHS IN THE 40-50% RANGE. LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP NEGATE ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 30-40% RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL. LOOKING INTO
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST, SOIL AND FUEL MOISTURES WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S AND PERHAPS INTO
THE 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 72 43 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 73 45 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 74 48 76 53 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 77 48 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 75 47 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 72 49 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 72 47 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 72 47 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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