764
FXUS64 KBMX 160046
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
746 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 743 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- FALL WEATHER: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BEHIND IT FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
TWO DAYS, AS THE REGION REMAINS SITUATED UNDER A STOUT RIDGE AT
THE SURFACE, AND THE UPPER-LEVELS. THANKFULLY, THIS RIDGING
PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN INTO FRIDAY EVENING, AS A VERY
DEEP TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BEGIN TO MOVE SE THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
WINDS AHEAD OF, AND BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE RATHER STRONG,
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES QUITE TIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS OVER
25+ MPH AT TIMES.
IT'S THESE STIFF WINDS THAT WILL QUICKLY USHER IN MUCH COOLER
WEATHER, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON FRIDAY DROPPING INTO THE MID-40S
AND LOW-50S. HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN
THE 60'S, WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING 40'S. BY MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND, AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF OFF TO OUR WEST. THANKFULLY,
THIS RISE IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE GRADUAL, WITH ONLY
UPPER-70S EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIMITED RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS WELL, WITH ONLY LOW SHOWER
CHANCES ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 743 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING
IN PLACE AND LIGHT/VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT TCL/MGM WHERE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY OCCUR IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. I HAVE A TEMPO FROM
9-13Z FOR THIS. OTHERWISE, A FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W THEN NW DURING THE DAY AS IT
MOVE THROUGH. SOME MAY BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAY NOT
SHIFT AT AUO UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD THOUGH. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SHOWER, BUT AS OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WILL FORGO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
08
FIRE WEATHER
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING
LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS, ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS, AND MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 61 84 47 65 / 0 20 10 0
ANNISTON 63 84 48 65 / 0 20 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 64 84 49 65 / 0 20 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 63 85 50 68 / 0 20 10 0
CALERA 63 84 49 65 / 0 20 10 0
AUBURN 64 84 52 67 / 0 20 20 0
MONTGOMERY 64 86 52 69 / 0 20 10 0
TROY 63 85 51 68 / 0 20 20 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...08
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