197
FXUS64 KBMX 271717
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1117 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
- A DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY DRIVING THE LINGERING BATCH OF
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CAN BE ANALYZED DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE IN
STORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN.
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN OVERNIGHT, WOULD'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
PATCHY TO POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SAW PLENTIFUL RAINFALL LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP
GUIDANCE HINTS AT THIS AS WELL CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FROM
1-5MB AND NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A STOUT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS. WE WERE PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISING RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER, LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HINT AT THAT FRONT REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT
BHM/EET/TCL WHILE MVFR IS HOLDING STRONG AT AUO/MGM. CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. MVFR CEILINGS RETURN TO AUO/MGM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WE COULD SEE BRIEF IFR CEILINGS BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. LASTLY, OPTED TO INTRODUCE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR VIS FOR MOST SITES AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN OVER AREAS THAT SAW
PLENTIFUL RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH RH VALUES
FALLING TO 30-40% THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP
NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO RECOVER BY
TUESDAY WITH MIN RH VALUES BACK INTO THE 40-50% RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 42 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 71 45 72 45 / 10 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 70 45 73 48 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 73 44 76 47 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 72 45 74 46 / 10 0 0 0
AUBURN 70 53 71 49 / 60 10 0 0
MONTGOMERY 71 50 73 47 / 50 0 0 0
TROY 71 53 74 48 / 80 10 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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