803
FXUS64 KBMX 201800
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1200 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
REALLY NO BIG CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND LIKELIHOOD OF THE STALLING OF SAID FRONT. THE MAIN
FOCUS ON THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SO THE 00Z RUNS WERE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING, LOCATION,
AMOUNTS AND THE EXTENT OF THE WARM NOSE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
12Z RUN OF THE GFS IS STILL SIMILAR TO THE OVERALL START TIME,
BUT IS TRENDING A TOUCH TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN LASTING ABOUT 12
HOURS. THIS SOLUTION WOULD PROVIDE AN ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL ON
TOP OF THE ICE ACCUMULATION THAT COULD MAKE TRAVEL EVEN MORE OF
ISSUE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS THE FIRST SOLUTION SHOWING THIS SO
WILL STICK WITH THE CONSISTENCY FOR NOW WITH THE PREVIOUS RUNS,
BUT SOMETHING TO CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON.
ULTIMATELY CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH THAT THIS WILL BE
AN IMPACTFUL EVENT FOR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND NORTH, WITH EXACT
DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
ONCE THEY GO BELOW ON FRIDAY. BEHIND THE WINTER WEATHER WE WILL
ALSO LIKELY NEED COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. GO AHEAD AND MAKE PLANS NOW FOR THIS
WINTER IMPACT OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT WINTER HEADLINES TO BEGIN
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
16
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL AND DRY TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. ONE MORE COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW, WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN
CHANCES, WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH
TOWARD THE GULF COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE REGION, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR 1-1.25" OF RAIN ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER, ROUGHLY AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
CLANTON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FRIDAY, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THE
BIG WEEKEND WEATHER MAKER ARRIVES. A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA, ORIGINATING
FROM A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA LATE WEEK. AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH, A SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TEXAS COAST
AND TRACK EITHER ALONG THE GULF COAST OR JUST INLAND SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. WITH A FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA, THIS WILL PROMOTE AN
OVERRUNNING SETUP THAT MAY BECOME HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION.
ALTHOUGH EXACT DETAILS, SUCH AS PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS, WILL
CONTINUE TO VARY RUN TO RUN WITH NEW MODEL UPDATES, CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN SOME TYPE OF WINTER MISCHIEF BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND LASTING, IN SOME FORM OR FASHION, UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TYPE, GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD A FREEZING RAIN SETUP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES, WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL CURRENTLY
EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MS, AL, GA, AND NEARLY ALL OF
TN. MUCH QUESTION REMAINS WITH THE MODELS AS TO THE CHANGEOVER
BETWEEN SNOW AND ICE, BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY IS FOR THE
ICE/SNOW LINE TO MEANDER NORTH AND SOUTH IN NORTH ALABAMA. WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST, GENERALLY MORE TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE, WITH A HIGHER MIX OF ICE AND SNOW ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES IN OUR CENTRAL ALABAMA
REGION CURRENTLY LOOK TO SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF ICE ACCUMULATION,
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL A COUPLE DAYS TOO EARLY TO START NAILING DOWN
PROJECTED ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS.
IF CURRENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS HOLD, AND SO FAR THEY HAVE FOR THE
LAST 48 HOURS OR SO, THIS COULD BECOME A DANGEROUS WINTER EVENT FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE OF ALABAMA. IT IS IMPERATIVE TO STAY
TUNED TO FORECAST UPDATES AND ANY CHANGES OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS
AS THE FORECAST BECOMES BETTER REFINED.
12
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY, AT TIMES PREVAILING FROM A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AFTER 6Z
BUT REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
16
FIRE WEATHER
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MIN RH WILL DROP INTO THE 15-30% RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. 20 FT WINDS WILL BE
A TAD HIGHER NEAR THE GA STATE LINE, UP TO 8 MPH. WINDS WILL SHIFT
BACK TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA, WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES RETURNING IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MIN RH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS STILL
LIKELY TO FALL TO 20-30% IN AREAS EAST OF I-65, AS MOISTURE TAKES
LONGER TO BUILD IN. A WET PATTERN BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR
THIS WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 21 55 37 51 / 0 20 70 50
ANNISTON 25 55 40 54 / 0 10 60 50
BIRMINGHAM 30 54 43 53 / 0 20 70 50
TUSCALOOSA 30 55 44 56 / 0 30 80 60
CALERA 28 56 42 56 / 0 10 60 50
AUBURN 30 56 43 62 / 0 0 20 30
MONTGOMERY 29 59 44 64 / 0 10 30 40
TROY 30 59 43 68 / 0 10 10 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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