053
FXUS64 KBMX 160529
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1229 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
- FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE
TO DRYNESS, LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY, AND INCREASED WINDS AT
TIMES. OUTDOOR BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
NEXT 36-HOURS, AS A DEEP TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL FINALLY RETURN TO THE
FORECAST BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING, AS THIS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
WORK INTO THE REGION. WHILE ANY RAIN AT THIS POINT IS WELCOMED, IT
WILL HARDLY BE THE RAINFALL THE REGION NEEDS TO MAKE ANY SORT OF
MEANINGFUL IMPACT ON THE ONGOING DROUGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
GENERALLY SEE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF-INCH OF RAINFALL WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOME 15-20 DEGREES,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY RANGING IN THE UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S.
WITH THAT BEING SAID, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND AS A SUBTLE
RIDGE WORKS BACK INTO THE REGION. WHILE THIS CLIMB WILL BE SLOW,
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK IN THE LOW-80S BY WEDNESDAY.
/44/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD, WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AND BETWEEN 7 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.
16
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
FUELS REMAINING CRITICALLY DRY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT WE
WILL SEE RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY, IT STILL WON'T BE
THE DROUGHT BUSTING RAIN THAT WE DESPERATELY NEED. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION, BEFORE SLIGHTLY DROPPING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, IT LOOKS LIKE MINRH WILL DRAMATICALLY DROP BEHIND
THIS FRONT, WITH LOW MINRH VALUES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 16:
KBHM: 89/1977
KEET: 84/2013
KTCL: 90/1955
KMGM: 90/1925
APRIL 17:
KBHM: 90/1955
KEET: 86/2013
KTCL: 92/1955
KMGM: 90/1955
APRIL 18:
KBHM: 91/2006
KEET: 90/2006
KANB: 90/1955
KMGM: 91/2006
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 84 57 88 59 / 10 10 10 0
ANNISTON 84 60 88 61 / 0 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 85 63 89 65 / 10 10 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 85 61 89 62 / 10 0 0 0
CALERA 85 61 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 84 61 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 86 61 89 60 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 85 60 88 59 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...16
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