851
FXUS64 KBMX 260434
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1134 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. SOME AREAS WILL
RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
TONIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE NIGHT, WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
ON SUNDAY. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SUNDAY, A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EASTERN COAST WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE STATE TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN A FIVE TO 10 DEGREE
GRADIENT IN DEWPOINT VALUES FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. AN MCS-TYPE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. CAMS AGREE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY
CLIP THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG SEEMS TO BE LIMITED TO THESE COUNTIES, AND
HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A HIGH WIND THREAT FROM THIS MCS. CAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
MONDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE TN RIVER
VALLEY. THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH FAIRLY WEAK INSTABILITIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING. AN ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY WINDS FROM THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FROM HERE, THE FRONT STALLS, REMAINING SOMEWHERE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
TIMING, SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE. THE SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW DUE TO THE LATE-NIGHT/EARLY-MORNING TIMING,
FRONT STALLING, AND WEAKENING FORCING.
TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY, WITH AN
EVEN STRONGER MID LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER, WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND AROUND OR GREATER THAN
40KTS SHEAR TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EAST AND
SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
FROM HERE, THE STALLED FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH,
WITH THE FOCUS OF STORMS ALSO SHIFTING SOUTH AND LIKELY OUT OF
CENTRAL AL. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY
SATURDAY.
24
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE WAS LOW ON HOW MUCH
DEVELOPS AND WHERE, SO VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
AMENDED. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH AND WEST OF EACH TAF
SITE. LEFT MENTION OF RAIN OR THUNDER OUT OF EACH TAF FOR NOW.
AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR TCL DUE TO INTERMITTENT
OBSERVATIONS.
NOTE: SPRING SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE TAF FOR KASN IS NOW BEING
ISSUED AND WILL RUN THROUGH 04/29 18Z.
24
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY,
WITH LOWERED CHANCES MONDAY. RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY IN
THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHER MINRH
VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 54 84 56 83 / 30 0 0 0
ANNISTON 58 83 58 82 / 30 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 61 85 61 84 / 20 0 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 60 85 62 87 / 10 10 10 20
CALERA 59 86 60 86 / 20 0 10 10
AUBURN 61 84 62 82 / 30 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 62 85 61 87 / 20 0 10 10
TROY 61 86 61 86 / 30 10 10 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...24
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