286
FXUS64 KBMX 280551
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1251 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
- DRY WEATHER WITH WARM AFTERNOONS AND COOL MORNINGS CONTINUES FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, THOUGH A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING
MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES IS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
THIS EVENING, SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS AND CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A WEAKENING RIDGE IS STILL PRESENT
ACROSS MEXICO WITH A LARGE LOW JUST CENTERED OVER NEW JERSEY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO ALABAMA. IN THE SHORT TERM, LOOK FOR ONE MORE
DAY OF PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND RAIN
FREE CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. BY TUESDAY, THE
SURFACE RIDGE CENTER WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SOME TO OVER OHIO/
KENTUCKY WITH A MORE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND IT INTO ALABAMA. BY
WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER SHOULD NUDGE FURTHER EASTWARD,
TO OVER THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA AREA. THIS WILL CREATE A
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO ALABAMA. THE CHANGES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ON TUESDAY, A BIT OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PULL OFF FROM THE MAIN LOW OVER NEW JERSEY
AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE GULF BY THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME TUESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER MEXICO WILL GET INFRINGED UPON BY A LOW MOVING EASTWARD OUT
OF CALIFORNIA INTO NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL NEED TO RECOVER A BIT
BEFORE WE CAN EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES. LOW RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BY THURSDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT.
08
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BATCHES OF
PRIMARILY HIGH-LEVEL BUT ALSO A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. WINDS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE DURING THE NIGHT AND NORTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK WITH
LIGHT WINDS KEEPING OVERALL CONCERNS LOW. AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20 TO LOWER
30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES.
HUMIDITY VALUES SLOWLY START TO INCREASE STARTING WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 83 53 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 81 52 85 57 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 83 57 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 88 57 91 59 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 84 55 87 58 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 80 57 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 83 57 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 83 57 87 60 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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