152
FXUS64 KBMX 281752
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1252 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON.
- A HOTTER AND DRIER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO RETURN ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
RETURN TO THE MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS DANGEROUS LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THE SHORT-TERM WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING AT A SLOW PACE
ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A PREVAILING
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FACILITATE THE STEADY ADVECTION OF DRIER,
COOLER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA,
EFFECTIVELY LIMITING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN THAT REGION.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS WILL
REMAIN STRICTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA, WITH A FOCUS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE
LEVELS REMAIN HIGHER. WHILE DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL PROVE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, THE PRESENCE OF
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE
LIMITED, KEEPING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW. HOWEVER, A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS REMAINS A CONCERN FROM THE
CALERA AREA SOUTHWARD THE I-85 CORRIDOR, SPECIFICALLY CONTINGENT
ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENOUGH LOCALIZED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
TO FUEL DOWNDRAFTS. IN THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTION, EXPECT TO SEE
SCATTERED, SLOW-MOVING CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
LOOKING AHEAD, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS IMPROVED AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE INITIAL HANDLING OF THE STUBBORN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. A BROAD,
HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO BUILD AND ESTABLISH A
SIGNIFICANT EAST-WEST AXIS STRETCHING FROM ARKANSAS EASTWARD TO
THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL ULTIMATELY
FORCE THE CUTOFF LOW TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE PREVAILING
TROPICAL EASTERLIES TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, EFFECTIVELY
DIMINISHING ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR REGIONAL WEATHER. WE MAINTAIN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE (60%) THAT THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL
SUCCESSFULLY SUPPRESS DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO LEVELS BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY ELEVATING AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE
BEGINNING TO SEE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH PRECIPITATION
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE REGARDING THE
TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION; THEREFORE, WE HAVE LIMITED VCSH
INCLUSION TO MGM AND AUO. WE WILL AMEND THE FORECAST IF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AFTER 21Z. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT AUO AND MGM, WHILE EET AND TCL
MAY SEE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION
OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS, THERE ARE NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 69 92 71 91 / 0 10 10 20
ANNISTON 69 91 70 90 / 10 20 20 30
BIRMINGHAM 70 92 72 91 / 0 20 10 20
TUSCALOOSA 71 96 72 94 / 0 20 10 20
CALERA 70 92 72 91 / 10 20 20 20
AUBURN 71 87 72 88 / 30 40 20 30
MONTGOMERY 72 93 72 93 / 30 30 20 20
TROY 70 90 70 91 / 40 40 20 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page