940
FXUS64 KBMX 201103
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
603 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE MORE PERSISTENT BANDS OF RAIN.
- TROPICAL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN IN
THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS TIME, NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- HEAT: MODERATE HEAT RISK MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HEAT
INDICES REACHING 105 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THE WORK WEEK BEGINS WITH CENTRAL ALABAMA FIRMLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS, WHICH IS GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP
SUPPORTS A "MAJOR HEATRISK" ACROSS THE SOUTH, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES REACHING TRIPLE
DIGITS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. REGARDING HEAT,
HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES (I-59 NORTHWARD)
MAY APPROACH ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, FOR THE CENTRAL
CORRIDOR (I-59 TO I-85), SUBSIDENCE ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, POTENTIALLY
LIMITING THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE MOST OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS.
SOUTHERN COUNTIES (I-85 AND SOUTH) ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
FROM THE GULF SYSTEM HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
WHILE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BRING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST BY MID-WEEK, THE PRIMARY FOCUS REMAINS THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL STORM BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK
CURRENTS, BUT AS THE HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
BUILDS MID-WEEK, IT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK: IF THE HIGH
PRESSURE IS ROBUST AND MOVES ACROSS THE MS/AL REGION, THE SYSTEM
WILL BE FORCED WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS, KEEPING THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL IMPACTS AWAY FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA.
CONVERSELY, A WEAKER HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE COULD ALLOW FOR A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CURRENTLY REFLECTS A BLEND OF THESE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS PENDING
FURTHER MODEL CONSENSUS.
IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL AT
THIS TIME, THOUGH THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
REQUIRES CLOSE MONITORING. DURING THIS WINDOW, WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO TRANSITION TO A SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY,
LARGELY DUE TO MODEL DIVERGENCE REGARDING THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY,
GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE IF THE LOW MAINTAINS A TRACK IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO OUR AREA. REGARDING CONVECTION, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO INCREASED
COVERAGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FEED WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED. ACROSS THE BROADER CWA,
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH, MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDERGOES A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, SWEEPS THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO DISPLACE THE LINGERING
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND SHIFT THE LOCAL FLOW TO A NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE PERSISTENT
TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDEX THREAT, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, SHOULD OFFER SOME RELIEF FROM THE
OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS OF THE EARLY WEEK.
16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES, BUT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE
FLIGHT CATEGORIES, NORTHERN ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN BY 18Z WITH
SOUTHERN ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER 20Z.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
87/GRANTHAM
FIRE WEATHER
THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AL. INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK, WHICH WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
CENTRAL AL. THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 93 74 94 75 / 30 20 10 0
ANNISTON 93 73 93 75 / 20 10 20 0
BIRMINGHAM 94 76 95 76 / 20 20 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 95 76 95 76 / 20 20 10 0
CALERA 95 74 97 75 / 20 10 20 0
AUBURN 93 74 90 75 / 20 20 50 0
MONTGOMERY 96 75 94 75 / 20 10 50 10
TROY 93 73 90 74 / 20 30 60 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BIBB-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-PICKENS-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...87/GRANTHAM
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