104
FXUS64 KBMX 032316
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
516 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 510 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
- RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
CURRENT MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD ZONE OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MISSISSIPPI AND
AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALONG AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO ENTER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STABLE AND COOL AIRMASS WILL PREVENT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO PICK UP ABOUT
0.5-0.75" OF RAIN.
THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO FORCE THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END IN OUR
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE
SLOWLY DURING THE DAY AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT FORTUNATELY THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT
BE AS COLD AS THE LAST FEW WAVES WE'VE EXPERIENCED, SO COLD WEATHER
PRODUCTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, THURSDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. A RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ON
FRIDAY, AND WE'LL ACTUALLY SEE SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW-
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MILD AIRMASS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A VAST RAIN SHIELD SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR
CIGS/VIS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BECOMING IFR LATE
TONIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
MOST TERMINALS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT BY SUNRISE. AUO WILL SEE
LINGERING -RA THROUGH MID MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS RETURN BY MID
DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT,
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, PERSISTING AS LATE AS ~MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF THE 85 CORRIDOR. AMOUNTS SHOULD
AVERAGE NEAR ONE-HALF INCH, LOCALLY HIGHER IN DOWNPOURS. A DRYING
NORTHWEST WIND NEAR 10 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH IS FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT WIDE WHICH WILL KEEP MINRHS WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LOWER DEW POINTS MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY,
PUSHING MINRHS INTO THE 30S FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONGSIDE NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5-10 MPH. FAIR
WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND WITH
MINRHS ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THOUGH SLIPPING INTO THE 30S FOR
PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA, AND WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 5-10 MPH
DURING THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 40 48 22 44 / 100 10 0 0
ANNISTON 42 50 23 44 / 100 20 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 42 47 25 44 / 100 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 39 48 25 46 / 100 0 0 0
CALERA 41 49 24 46 / 100 20 0 0
AUBURN 48 56 28 46 / 90 70 0 0
MONTGOMERY 49 55 29 48 / 90 60 0 0
TROY 49 58 31 48 / 90 80 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86/MARTIN
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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