579
FXUS64 KBMX 221122
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
622 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DETAILS INVOLVING TIMING AND HAZARDS WILL BE
REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT WITH
AN OVERALL SLOW WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SURFACE RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM NOVA
SCOTIA TO SC AND WWD BACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO TX. ATLANTIC
COAST RIDGING WILL BE PINCHED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON WED
MOVING EWD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES, WITH WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED TO
HANG A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EWD AND OUT OF C AL ON WED, TAKING
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH IT. AT THE SAME TIME, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE US WEST COAST WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE
NRN US ROCKIES INTO AB/SK IN CANADA ON WED/THU. THE FLOW ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH SHOULD BECOME WEAKER DURING THIS TIME IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.
BETTER MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MORE ONSHORE FLOW AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER
LOW OVER SK IN CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD INTO MB IN CANADA OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MON. AS IT DOES SO, SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN LOW WITH LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES OF
IMPACTS AFFECTING THE DEEP SOUTH. C AL WILL TRANSITION INTO A
WETTER PATTERN FOR FRI AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
AS ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. IT WILL LIKELY
STALL ACROSS C AL BEFORE MOVING BACK NWD WITH OUR UPPER FLOW
ACROSS AL BECOMING MORE ZONAL THAN NW FOR SAT/SUN. BY MON, THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST US. THIS WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF A SURFACE FRONT
MAKING IT THROUGH MUCH OF AL BY TUESDAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
FOR MON INTO MON NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN LOW AND OTHER PARAMETERS WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THE PROBABILITY FOR IMPACTS IS THERE, AND WILL NEED
REFINEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO MON.
08
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
NOTE: SPRING SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE TAF FOR KASN IS NOW BEING
ISSUED AND WILL RUN THROUGH 04/29 18Z.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WE NEAR OR EXCEED CRITICAL RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOONS. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, BUT ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE
DRY FUELS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. THERE WILL BE A SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 83 50 83 54 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 82 53 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 83 57 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 83 56 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 84 55 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 82 57 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 84 55 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 82 55 83 55 / 0 0 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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