451
FXUS64 KBMX 121126
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
626 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH. WITH THAT BEING
SAID, THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE THE
FARTHER IT GETS AWAY FROM THE MAIN TROUGH TO THE NORTH, BECOMING
FAR LESS POTENT COME TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, DURING THIS
SAME TIME, A CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO FORM ON THE SOUTHERNMOST
END OF THE TROUGH, SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY TO THE SE. BETWEEN THIS
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AND THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY, ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. GIVEN AMPLE
INSTABILITY, A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD STILL BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY, THIS CLOSED LOW WILL MEANDER
SOUTHEASTWARD, STALLING NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY SOMETIME
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS LOW WILL SERVE AS THE CATALYST FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS IT LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY, THE LOW
SHOULD START TO SHIFT WEST, AS A HIGH-PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
OVER THE EAST COAST. RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME WILL SHIFT
BACK INTO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION,
REMAINING THIS WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BEGIN
TO CLIMB UNDER THIS RIDGE AS WELL, SLOWLY SNEAKING RIGHT BACK UP
INTO THE LOW TO MID-90S BY NEXT SATURDAY.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE INCREASED
COVERAGE TODAY, WENT AHEAD WITH VCSH IN EACH TAF, WITH A
PROB30 TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE DIRECTLY OVER A
SITE. MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH, SO ANY STORM WILL PRODUCE IFR OR
LIFR VISIBILITIES OVER A TAF SITE, AND GUSTING WINDS WILL BE
COMMON. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. MODELS HAVE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW, WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS, HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
24
FIRE WEATHER
A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE REGION AND STALLS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 88 70 84 68 / 70 60 90 70
ANNISTON 88 71 84 69 / 80 60 90 70
BIRMINGHAM 89 72 86 70 / 80 60 80 60
TUSCALOOSA 89 72 87 71 / 80 60 70 60
CALERA 92 72 88 70 / 80 60 80 70
AUBURN 91 72 85 71 / 70 60 80 60
MONTGOMERY 93 72 87 70 / 60 70 80 60
TROY 92 71 85 69 / 60 70 80 60
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...24
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