978
FXUS64 KBMX 030403
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1103 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS, COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS, WILL PROVIDE NOTABLE RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT FOR
THOSE OUTDOORS.
- THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERNS,
INCLUDING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON, WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A DRY SLOT HAS IMPROVED CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS. WE HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CUT OFF INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER NORTH GEORGIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY IN EASTERN AREAS,
THROUGH MIDWEEK. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD THROUGH TUESDAY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER INHIBITS FULL
SUN AND AFTERNOON HEATING.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD,
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
TRANSITION WILL LEAVE ALABAMA POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO HIGH-
PRESSURE SYSTEMS, RESULTING IN SEASONAL WEEKEND CONDITIONS WHERE
TEMPERATURES AND DAILY CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES ALIGN CLOSELY WITH
HISTORICAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY AUGUST.
16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CLOUDS
REMAIN BROKEN TO OVERCAST ACROSS THE NORTH (BHM, EET, TCL) DUE TO
CYCLONIC WRAP-AROUND ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. IN
CONTRAST, MGM AND AUO REMAIN IN A DRIER, SUBSIDENT SLOT WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS CLOUD COVER. CURRENT BASES RANGE FROM 4 TO
6 KFT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 06Z, AFTER WHICH
LOWERING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. ACCORDINGLY, MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z AT BHM, EET, AND TCL.
GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS ON LOWER-LEVEL SATURATION, I HAVE INCLUDED
A TEMPO IFR GROUP FOR THESE NORTHERN SITES FROM 10Z TO 13Z.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 45 PERCENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. WHILE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
INTRODUCE DRIER AIR ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, PUSHING HUMIDITY
LEVELS DOWN TOWARD 40 PERCENT, LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRECLUDE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 69 87 68 89 / 10 30 10 50
ANNISTON 68 86 68 88 / 0 30 10 50
BIRMINGHAM 69 86 69 89 / 0 20 10 30
TUSCALOOSA 69 88 70 91 / 0 10 0 20
CALERA 68 88 69 90 / 0 20 10 30
AUBURN 70 85 71 87 / 0 20 10 50
MONTGOMERY 71 90 71 92 / 0 20 10 30
TROY 70 89 70 91 / 10 20 10 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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