802
FXUS64 KBMX 312327
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
627 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK: A WARMING TREND WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO
105-108 EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK, WITH HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY
NEEDED FROM WEDNESDAY AND ONWARD.
- TROPICAL WEATHER: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST, WITH NO TROPICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN CONFINED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER RIDGE. TO
OUR SOUTH, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC
HAS ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE, WHICH
MAY STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT AS IT NEARS THE
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA/UPPER TEXAS COAST. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD, STEERING THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF.
DRIER AIR AND INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE AREA. WE ANTICIPATE
LOW CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH,
SPECKLED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN AN OUTER CONVERGENCE ZONE.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MINIMAL WIND SHEAR,
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM DURING PEAK HEATING.
A WARMING TREND BEGINS THIS WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S BY MIDWEEK. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PUSH HEAT
INDICES TO 105-108° EACH AFTERNOON, LIKELY NECESSITATING DAILY
HEAT ADVISORIES. PROBABILISTIC HEAT RISK DATA INDICATES A 50-60%
CHANCE OF MAJOR OR HIGHER HEAT RISK HEADING INTO LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. WE WILL INCREASE HEAT SAFETY MESSAGING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK; EMPHASIZE THE IMPORTANCE OF HYDRATION AND LIMITING OUTDOOR
EXPOSURE.
16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF WINDOW.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 6-
8 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOG CHANCES
REMAIN LOW TONIGHT.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION
OUTAGE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40% THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. LOW (10 TO 20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE DAILY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT WEEK AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. HOWEVER SOIL CONDITIONS ARE
DRYING OUT AND DROUGHT MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 71 96 73 96 / 10 10 10 0
ANNISTON 70 94 72 94 / 10 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 73 95 75 96 / 10 10 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 74 97 75 98 / 10 10 10 0
CALERA 72 95 73 95 / 10 10 10 0
AUBURN 72 92 74 93 / 10 10 0 10
MONTGOMERY 74 96 75 97 / 10 10 0 10
TROY 72 95 73 95 / 10 10 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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