928
FXUS64 KBMX 060616
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
116 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
- AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVELS 3 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THREATS INCLUDE
ISOLATED, BRIEF TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND LARGE HAIL.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF FLASH FLOODING WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS
OF THIS MORNING, A PORTION OF THE REGION IS NOW UNDER AN ENHANCED
RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL
ANTICIPATED.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY GET UNDERWAY THIS MORNING
IN OUR FAR NORTH ZONES, BEFORE LOSING STRENGTH INTO THE MID-
MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE STATE TO REMAIN CLEAR
OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS, KEEPING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
UNINTERRUPTED. BECAUSE OF THIS, AFTERNOON INSTABILITY VALUES WILL
RANGE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1200 J/KG AND 2500 J/KG, DEPENDING ON HOW
HIGH OUR DEWPOINTS GET. THIS IS MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUSTAIN STORMS ONCE THEY GET GOING. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR IN
NATURE, REMAINING ISOLATED FROM THE MAIN LINE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS TIME GOES ON. THIS IS WHERE THE FIRST OF OUR TORNADO THREAT
WILL COME FROM AS WELL. THANKFULLY, LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES SHOW
A DISTINCT VEER-BACK-VEER IN THE LOWEST 3KM, WHICH COULD HURT
TORNADOGENESIS. ADDITIONALLY, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE
LOWER SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM NEEDED FOR TORNADOES. THAT'S NOT TO
SAY WE WON'T SEE A TORNADO OR TWO DURING THIS TIME, BUT FROM A
STRICTLY ENVIRONMENTAL STANDPOINT, THESE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT
COULD ULTIMATELY HOLD THE TORNADO THREAT BACK.
AS TIME GOES ON, STORMS WILL FORM INTO A HEAVILY FORCED LINE,
DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME,
WITH TORNADOES EMBEDDED ALONG THE LINE BEING THE SECONDARY
THREAT. HOWEVER, IT'S DURING THIS TIME THAT THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS WELL, AS THIS LINE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN. GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES,
THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS, WITH
WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE BANDING SETS UP, SOME LOCATIONS
COULD SEE 5+ INCHES WHEN IT'S ALL SAID AND DONE. WE DO EXPECT
THIS HEAVIER BANDING TO SET UP SOMEWHERE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY LOW AS TO EXACTLY WHERE. AS OF THIS EVENING, THAT
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO A MORE SEASONABLE FEEL BEHIND THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE MORE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT BEHIND THIS TROUGH, WITH
TEMPERATURES SETTLING INTO THE UPPER-70S AND LOW-80S BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.
/44/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WORSEN WITH TIME. VFR IS PREVALENT AS OF 06Z;
HOWEVER, MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT BHM-EET-TCL, WITH A LOWER CHANCE AT MGM-TOI. THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, CEILINGS MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR BEFORE
BECOMING IFR DURING THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A FRONT
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CURRENT BEST TIMING ESTIMATES ARE
REFLECTED IN THE TAFS BUT WILL BE REFINED AS ACTIVITY GETS
UNDERWAY.
AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR TCL DUE TO INTERMITTENT
OBSERVATIONS.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB TOMORROW, AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. IN
TOTAL, SOME LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. GIVEN THE HIGHER MINRH VALUES AND UPCOMING RAIN,
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 79 58 73 48 / 80 100 20 0
ANNISTON 81 61 75 51 / 70 100 30 0
BIRMINGHAM 81 62 74 54 / 80 100 20 0
TUSCALOOSA 82 63 76 54 / 80 90 10 0
CALERA 84 63 77 53 / 70 100 30 0
AUBURN 85 66 79 57 / 20 90 80 10
MONTGOMERY 86 66 79 57 / 50 90 70 10
TROY 86 67 79 58 / 20 80 90 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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