644
FXUS64 KBMX 080522
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1222 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.
- FIRE DANGER WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS, LOWER RH VALUES, AND AN INCREASE IN
WINDS, BUT SUB-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
- CONSIDERABLE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGH CHANCE FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO DEVELOP.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
THIS EVENING SATELLITE IS INDICATING THIN TO MODERATE CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF AL ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE WNW FLOW. HOWEVER, WITH LITTLE OTHER AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THIS WAVE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER WED NIGHT
CLOSER TO THE COAST, BUT CHANCES ARE LOWER AS YOU PROCEED INLAND
INTO C AL WITH OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS,
GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS C AL, BUT
THE FLOW WILL CHANGE SLIGHTLY FROM NE TO ERLY FOR WED AS SURFACE
RIDGING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL GET PUSHED EWD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BE THANKS TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EWD
OUT OF MANITOBA/THE DAKOTAS AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO AND
SHOULD DRAG A FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THU MORNING.
UPPER FLOW WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ASSISTING THE FRONT TO MAKE
IT INTO THE SE US UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE FRONT LIKELY LOSING STEAM
IN ERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND OVER KY/NC. ERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME MORE SERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS OUR WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE
ORIENTATION ADJUSTS SOME BECOMING ELONGATED SWWD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED, MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE WITH MORE SRLY FLOW OFF OF THE GULF AS THE RIDGE CENTER
SHIFTS SEWD FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC. OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE SW OVER C AL AS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF. A FEW MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE
SW FLOW MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INCREASING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH ALLOW FOR LOW
DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWER CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR
MON/TUE. AT THIS TIME QPF AMOUNTS ARE LOW.
08
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
A STRONG 1036MB SURFACE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTING A BROAD REGION OF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST, AND PROMOTING MILD
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FLOW IS VERY DRY,
AND WE'VE SEEN DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN RAPIDLY SO FAR TODAY. AS A
RESULT, FORECAST VALUES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL
WITH COLD AIR DAMMING SET TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEADING TO WIND
GUSTS OF 15-18 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH, LIKELY TO
OCCUR AGAIN TOMORROW. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE BORDERLINE
REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA IF THE WINDS WERE A BIT HIGHER AS WE
ALREADY HAVE A COUPLE SITES REPORTING RH VALUES NEAR 25%. HREF
PROBS INDICATE LOWER CHANCES OF RHS FALLING BELOW 25% TOMORROW,
BUT BASED ON TRENDS TODAY, I STILL UTILIZED FORECAST VALUES ON THE
LOWER END OF THE PERCENTILES.
BEYOND THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT WHICH MAY LEAD TO A
LESS THAN 10% COVERAGE OF BRIEF SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTH, AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. CERTAINLY NOT A FEATURE THAT WILL SLOW DOWN
THE INCREASE IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
WILL BE DOMINATED BY VARYING LEVELS OF RIDGING WHICH LOOKS TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
REACH THE MID 80S FROM SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN. RH VALUES INCREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY
TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE GENERALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
A LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF A FEW SPOTS OF 27-29 PERCENT
RANGE. EASTERLY 20FT WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 MPH, WITH
THE HIGHEST GUSTS SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG THRESHOLDS, ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FUELS VERY DRY. ANY FIRES COULD SPREAD
QUICKLY DUE TO THE PREVAILING BREEZY CONDITIONS THAT ARE FORECAST.
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 73 45 75 43 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 73 46 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 76 51 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 77 50 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 76 49 77 49 / 0 10 0 0
AUBURN 72 49 73 50 / 0 10 0 0
MONTGOMERY 76 50 76 50 / 0 10 0 0
TROY 75 50 76 50 / 0 10 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08/86/MARTIN
AVIATION.../44/
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