637
FXUS64 KBMX 230020
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
720 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER: A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE MAIN THREATS ARE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
- COOLER, DRIER EARLY FALL PATTERN: RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A NOTICEABLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES ACROSS CENTRAL AL FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-TO-MIDDLE 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL AL TODAY, LEADING TO AT LEAST SOME FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS GENERALLY THE IMPETUS
FOR THE MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW WITH ONLY A 20-30%
CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE
WARM/HUMID SURFACE, ANY OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
WE START TO SEE A DEEPENING TROUGH TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING BUILDING TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW FOR CENTRAL AL FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK LEADING TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, THIS WILL BE A WELCOME START TO THE FALL SEASON
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (A FEW
SPOTS IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AL)
AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH LIMITED TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SWING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MGM AND AUO
THROUGH THAT TIME. AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST, A
BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD OUT OF GA LATER
OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING MIGHT LEAD TO LOWER CIGS AND INCREASED
RAIN IN THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL AL LATE IN THE PERIOD
(GENERALLY AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY). MVFR CIGS REMAIN INCLUDED FOR
AUO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT MGM, EET, TCL, AND BHM ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY JUST WEST OF THE LOWER CIGS AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID, THERE IS A 20 TO 30% CHANCE THAT CEILINGS
MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED WITH THE 06Z ISSUANCE FOR A FEW HOURS AT
BHM, MGM, AND EET FROM 12Z TO 15Z WEDNESDAY.
16
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DRIER
WEATHER WORKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MINRHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40-60% RANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, BUT THE WEEKEND IS TRENDING DRIER WITH MINRHS APPROACHING
CRITICAL VALUES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE EAST AFTER
TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 67 89 64 82 / 10 40 40 10
ANNISTON 68 88 66 80 / 20 40 40 10
BIRMINGHAM 70 91 68 83 / 10 20 20 10
TUSCALOOSA 70 94 69 88 / 10 10 10 10
CALERA 69 92 68 84 / 20 20 20 10
AUBURN 70 88 67 80 / 30 20 30 10
MONTGOMERY 71 92 70 85 / 20 10 30 10
TROY 70 92 68 85 / 30 10 20 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...16
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