596
FXUS64 KBMX 190527
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1127 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1125 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 959 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING REVEALS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
RETREATING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH PREPARES TO EJECT OUT
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT CAN BE ANALYZED PARKED ACROSS TEXAS AND
ARKANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS AS IT
HINTS AT A FEW POCKETS OF CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DOWN TO THE
5-10MB RANGE THROUGH SUNRISE. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP LIKELY
WON'T LAST TOO LONG PAST SUNRISE AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO
PICK UP. WHILE CHANCES ARE LOW, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS INCREASED
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINES WITH SEVERAL H85-H7 IMPULSES THAT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BEGINS TO HEAD OUR WAY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP AS WE CLOSE OUT
THE WORK WEEK AS THIS BOUNDARY RUNS INTO A HEALTHY PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE CWA AND
LINGERS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, WE COULD SEE A
FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AXIS BECOMES ESTABLISHED. WITH THAT SAID, OUR WARM CLOUD DEPTH
DOESN'T LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE SO WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. OVERALL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5-1" CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LASTLY, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A CORRIDOR
OF CAPE VALUES FROM 400-700 J/KG SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, WE WILL BE LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THAT
FAR SOUTH.
BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A NUDGE TO
PUSH THE STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA. COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS ARE LOOKING PRETTY CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. MVFR
CONDITIONS RETURN OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY AFTER 07Z. IFR CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY AROUND 12Z THROUGH ROUGHLY 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY
MID DAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS LIKELY AT TIMES. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER, ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASED MOISTURE ON THURSDAY WILL HELP KEEP MIN RH VALUES IN THE
50-60% RANGE. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FRIDAY. AS A COLD
FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE STATE, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. MIN RHS ON FRIDAY WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR
30% ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. AT THIS TIME, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT ENOUGH TO NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RHS REBOUND BACK INTO
THE 50-70% RANGE ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE. MIN RH VALUES
WILL FALL INTO THE 20-30% RANGE DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 58 77 58 75 / 20 20 80 20
ANNISTON 59 78 60 75 / 20 20 70 40
BIRMINGHAM 61 77 60 75 / 20 20 70 30
TUSCALOOSA 60 80 60 75 / 10 10 60 20
CALERA 60 79 60 76 / 20 20 70 30
AUBURN 60 78 65 76 / 30 30 60 60
MONTGOMERY 61 81 65 78 / 30 10 60 60
TROY 60 81 65 80 / 30 20 50 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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