571
FXUS64 KBMX 110033
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
733 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
PRESENT TONIGHT FROM 9 PM THROUGH 3 AM MONDAY FOR THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE (20 TO 40%) CHANCE FOR PATCHY DENSE
FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS PRESENT FOR LATE MONDAY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM FOR
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE MAIN THREAT IS
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN
ACROSS THE COUNTRY. A STOUT UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN CHURNING NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES AS SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT CAN BE ANALYZED BACK OUR NORTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. LOCALLY, VISIBILITIES WERE SLOW
TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING AS DENSE FOG SETTLED IN ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION EARLIER. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY TO DENSE
FOG. LATEST HREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST A 30-50% CHANCE OF
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. TO ADD TO THIS, BOTH THE NAM12 AND RAP13 HINT AT
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FROM 1-3MB ALONG WITH NARROWING DEW
POINTS. ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS LIKELY IN THE CARDS FOR
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS EVENING AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT DECAYING SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY THE TIME THIS
ACTIVITY MAKES IT TO THE STATE, INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY
LIMITED. NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IF
ACTIVITY CAN CAPITALIZE ON A POCKET OF GREATER INSTABILITY,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
ANY CONVECTION WILL WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL LAG
BEHIND A BIT, EVENTUALLY PASSING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED
ALONG THE FRONT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SPC MAINTAINS A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AREAS TONIGHT AND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKE CONTROL IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, LEAVING US DRY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY. WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE, WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM
THIS ONE.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT AT ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF
SITES. SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES, WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. LOWER MVFR CIGS/VIS MAY
DEVELOP AT TIMES WITH THE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR
NORTHERLY WINDS 7-11KTS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION TS AT THIS TIME,
BUT WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE OR TRENDS FOR ANY NEEDED AMENDMENTS.
08
FIRE WEATHER
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AS WE WRAP UP THE WEEKEND WILL HELP KEEP
MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY ABOVE 50%. DRIER AIR RETURNS LATE MONDAY
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH MIN RH VALUES FALLING TO 30-40%
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY WILL KNOCK
MIN RHS DOWN INTO THE 30-35% RANGE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 56 77 50 79 / 20 30 0 0
ANNISTON 57 78 53 79 / 20 30 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 61 78 55 81 / 30 30 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 61 78 56 82 / 30 30 0 0
CALERA 60 80 55 82 / 20 40 0 0
AUBURN 62 82 60 80 / 10 40 10 0
MONTGOMERY 60 82 59 81 / 20 40 20 0
TROY 61 83 59 82 / 20 40 20 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...08
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