961
FXUS64 KBMX 132321
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
521 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 509 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE DAY, THIS AFTERNOON, OF SUNNY SKIES AND
CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING. CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WE WILL HAVE LITTLE
TIME FOR OUR DEW POINTS TO RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY FOR ANYTHING BUT
RAIN. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST IN THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY WED. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SPOTS OF RAIN FOR WED
EVENING, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. QPF OVERALL SHOULD BE
RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND GENERALLY UNDER 1/4 INCH. ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE WE GET ANY COLD
ENOUGH AIR INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANY
FROZEN PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT. ANY POST FRONT FLURRIES, WOULD BE
MINIMAL AT BEST IN THE NRN AREAS WED NIGHT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
EXPECTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THU. FLOW TURNS QUICKLY BACK
AROUND FOR FRI, AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT. ADDED SOME VERY LOW POPS
FOR FRI NIGHT. ATTM, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MEAGER MOISTURE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A RAIN SHOWER OR TWO FOR THE SE 1/2 OF C AL AHEAD OF
IT, ANY OF WHICH SHOULD BE LIQUID, NOT FROZEN, AND VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF QPF. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES TWEAK BACK
DOWNWARD AGAIN FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MORE RIDGING.
08
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS THE RIDGING ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. JUST AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH, AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE EJECTS THROUGH TX/LA AND PUSHES
THROUGH THE GULF STATES. BOTH THE SHORTWAVE AND THE MAIN TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR CENTRAL AL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE PRECIP MOVES THROUGH, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR AREA BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES TAKE A SHARP DROP EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE FORECAST WILL KEEP ALL PRECIP AS LIQUID, THOUGH THERE'S
A VERY LOW CHANCE (<5%) OF A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
THURSDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLD ALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
INTO THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. A FEW OF OUR COLDER LOCATIONS MAY NOT
GET ABOVE FREEZING. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE REGION.
THERE'S ANOTHER TROUGH THAT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH
THAT SYSTEM. SEVERAL RUNS OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TRY TO SHOW
WINTER PRECIP WITH THIS SECONDARY TROUGH, BUT ENSEMBLES PAINT A
DIFFERENT STORY, KEEPING THE PROBABILITY OF ANY WINTER PRECIP AT
<10%. WE'LL KEEP MONITORING THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES, BUT WILL
NOT INCLUDE WINTER WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL SITES EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF VCSH AROUND SUNRISE TO
ACCOUNT FROM SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. -SHRA ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY,
GENERALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH MINRHS IN THE 20-35%
RANGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AT AROUND 3-5 MPH.
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN. AFTER THAT,
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RHS DROPPING
INTO THE 20-35% RANGE AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 36 54 21 38 / 0 50 20 0
ANNISTON 37 54 23 38 / 0 40 20 0
BIRMINGHAM 41 53 24 39 / 0 40 20 0
TUSCALOOSA 39 56 26 42 / 10 40 20 0
CALERA 38 56 24 41 / 10 40 20 0
AUBURN 40 54 27 41 / 20 30 20 0
MONTGOMERY 38 56 29 43 / 20 30 20 0
TROY 38 56 29 43 / 30 30 20 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08/25/OWEN
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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