730
FXUS64 KBMX 221200
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
600 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
A CHILLY NIGHT IS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH A FEW
FEATURES OF INTEREST THAT WILL AFFECT THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DESPITE A THE PRESENCE OF A CIRRUS SHIELD,
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 20S AND
30S WITH COLDEST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
HOWEVER, WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE TEMPERATURES RISE BETWEEN NOW AND
SUNRISE AS A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK ADVANCES EASTWARD OUT OF
MISSISSIPPI. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A 500MB TROUGH THAT
IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM OKLAHOMA. THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS A RESULT THROUGH 6AM, AND
COULD IMPACT THE DIURNAL CURVE DURING THE DAY TODAY AS WELL. THE
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN
NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO NEAR 60 IN BARBOUR COUNTY.
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S TO NEAR 30
DEGREES AREAWIDE. BY SUNDAY, A FAST-MOVING 500MB CLOSED LOW WILL
EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING JUST OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST. GUIDANCE
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS STRUGGLED TO DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND HOW FAR NORTH WE
COULD SEE RAINFALL OVER OUR CWA. GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAS
BROUGHT A LITTLE MORE CLARITY AND A MORE POTENT OVERALL 500MB
SYSTEM, WHICH OFFERS INCREASED SYNOPTIC LIFT, MORE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AT THE 700-500MB LEVELS, AND A DEEPER SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. IF THIS TREND HOLDS
UP, THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOISTEN THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING,
AND WE'VE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED HIGHER IN OVERALL RAIN CHANCES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
INCREASED FURTHER DURING SUBSEQUENT SHORT-TERM UPDATES. WITH RAIN
CHANCES AND MORE CLOUD COVER NOW ANTICIPATED, THAT WILL ALSO
AFFECT DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW, I'VE BEGUN THE TREND OF
LOWERING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND UNDERCUTTING
NBM VALUES. IF WE END UP HAVING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COVERAGE
ADVERTISED FROM SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE 50S WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
SIGNIFICANTLY IN FUTURE UPDATES.
56/GDG
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY COME ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD COULD SKIRT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND A WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE AS DEEP-LAYER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY.
A LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, BUT MODEST MOISTURE QUALITY SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS.
87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL MOVE ACROSS MOST TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CLOUD
BASES BETWEEN 4500 AND 7000 FEET. LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH VALUES TODAY THAN WAS OBSERVED ON
FRIDAY. STILL, MINRH VALUES SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S THIS AFTERNOON WITH TRANSPORT WINDS FROM THE WEST AND LIGHT
20FT WINDS. RAIN CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH INCREASING
MINRH VALUES BETWEEN THE MID 30S AND MID 40S. 20FT WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 50 22 54 29 / 0 0 0 10
ANNISTON 51 26 54 32 / 0 0 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 49 27 53 32 / 0 0 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 50 26 54 32 / 0 0 20 20
CALERA 50 28 54 33 / 0 0 10 20
AUBURN 53 30 56 37 / 0 0 0 20
MONTGOMERY 54 30 55 36 / 0 0 20 20
TROY 56 30 57 37 / 0 0 20 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION...56/GDG
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