448
FXUS64 KBMX 021116
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
616 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL: SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST
BY FRIDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE REGION, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STREAM BACK INTO THE REGION UNDER
A STIFF SOUTH WIND, WITH PWAT VALUES HAVING INCREASED 0.7 INCHES
IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY REMAINING DIURNALLY ENHANCED
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING. DURING THIS SAME TIME,
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH, BRIEFLY
STALLING ON SATURDAY AS WELL.
UNFORTUNATELY, I THINK IT'S WORTH PASSING ALONG TONIGHT THAT OUR
QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAY BE OVERDONE. THE BULK OF THE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL ON SUNDAY, WHEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES IN
OFF THE GULF, ALLOWING FOR THAT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO THE
ENHANCED FORCING. JUST LIKE I MENTIONED YESTERDAY, THIS SCENARIO
ENTIRELY DEPENDS ON WHERE THE COLD FRONT STALLS, AND THE
ORIENTATION THAT THE COLD FRONT TAKES. THE LAST TWO NIGHTS, I
HAVE STARTED TO SEE A TREND IN THE COLD FRONT STALLING FARTHER TO
THE NORTH, THEN QUICKLY PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION INTO MONDAY.
NOW, WE WOULD STILL SEE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IF THIS WERE TO
OCCUR, BUT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE CLOSER TO HALF
AN INCH, WITH MORE SCATTERED POCKETS OF 1-2+ INCHES UNDER HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES.
THANKFULLY, CONFIDENCE IN THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO IS LOW, AS THE
BULK CONSENSUS REMAINS THE CURRENT FORECAST. HOWEVER, IT'S STILL
WORTH PASSING ALONG GIVEN THIS SUBTLE SHIFT I'VE SEEN THE LAST
TWO DAYS, IN THE EVENT IT CONTINUES. OTHERWISE, THE COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO A SEASONABLE FEEL FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IFR CIGS ARE
CURRENTLY APPROACHING AUO THIS MORNING. HREF/LAMP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE'S A LOW (30%) CHANCE THAT THESE COULD REACH MGM,
AND A LOWER (10-20%) CHANCE THEY REACH BHM/EET. SCATTERED SHRA AND
TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. HAVE INCLUDED
SOME PROB30 MENTIONS AT ALL SITES, FAVORING SHRA AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS AND TSRA AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS PER LATEST HREF
CALIBRATED THUNDER PROBABILITIES. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT THE VERY END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. THESE WILL
PRIMARILY BE HANDLED WITH THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE EXCEPT AUO WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY, WITH ISOLATED
RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY LIMITED TO SOUTHERN AREAS. AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
50S AND LOW 60S ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 91 67 88 67 / 30 30 60 60
ANNISTON 90 68 87 68 / 40 30 60 60
BIRMINGHAM 91 70 88 69 / 30 30 60 60
TUSCALOOSA 94 69 90 68 / 20 20 50 60
CALERA 91 69 88 68 / 30 30 60 60
AUBURN 87 69 85 68 / 50 30 60 70
MONTGOMERY 90 70 88 70 / 50 30 60 60
TROY 88 68 86 69 / 60 30 60 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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