823
FXUS64 KBMX 250118
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
818 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 816 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
- HEAT & HUMIDITY: A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BEGINS LATE THIS
WEEK; HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 100
DEGREES DAILY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
POSE A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
AN MCV IS CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON RADAR IMAGERY SPINNING OVER SUMTER
COUNTY. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE, AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, REMAINS IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND IS ON COURSE TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE. A FEW STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE
RISK SEEMS VERY LOW. A SECOND MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THEREAFTER, RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE PATTERN WILL
TREND MUCH DRIER AND HOTTER. HEAT STRESS WILL BECOME A CONCERN
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES
RANGING FROM 100-105 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AS
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY INCREASE. IF THE FORECAST STAYS ON THIS
PATH, WE WILL LIKELY BE TALKING MORE ABOUT A HEAT ADVISORY SOON.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 800 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR. THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE
FOR SHRA AT MGM AND AUO TONIGHT, BUT ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION
FOR MGM TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FOR ALL DURING THE DAY
(ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) WITH HEATING. A FEW TSRA MAY BE
NOTED AFTER 21Z. OTHERWISE, THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AFTER 9Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FOR THE
W/S TAFS. A MENTION IS NOTED FOR TCL, MGM, AND AUO AT VARYING
TIMES.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AUO TAF UNTIL DATA
ISSUES WITH OBSERVATIONS ARE RESOLVED.
08
FIRE WEATHER
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE AS WE WILL REMAIN
IN A WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE WILL KEEP MINRH VALUES ABOVE 45% THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 64 89 70 90 / 10 20 10 30
ANNISTON 66 88 70 89 / 10 20 10 30
BIRMINGHAM 68 88 71 91 / 10 20 20 20
TUSCALOOSA 69 88 72 91 / 20 30 20 10
CALERA 67 90 70 93 / 20 30 20 20
AUBURN 69 86 71 88 / 20 40 20 40
MONTGOMERY 69 86 71 90 / 30 40 20 30
TROY 68 84 70 89 / 30 50 20 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86/MARTIN
AVIATION...08
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