081
FXUS64 KBMX 281133
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
633 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
- A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT, AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE
MAIN THREATS.
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL EXPECTED TO
SNEAK INTO THE REGION BY THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH
CONTINUED DECAYING AS TIME GOES ON. FROM HERE, GENERAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION, AS THE NEXT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER STARTS
TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE ARKLATEX. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED HERE ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE MORNING, WITH
THESE STORMS SLIDING EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED
IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5), WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THERE
IS A NARROW WINDOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHERE AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SINGULAR STORM MODES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW HERE. HOWEVER, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY GROW INTO A
LARGE CLUSTER, WITH THE BULK OF OUR THREAT COMING FROM THIS AS IT
WORKS INTO THE REGION.
DURING THIS TIME ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL SLIP
INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN, SLOWING THE COLD FRONT'S PROGRESS
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THURSDAY,
AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TOWARDS THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOW TO UPPER-70S, BEFORE
FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER-60S ON FRIDAY. OUR NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE THIS WEEKEND, WHEN A DEEP TROUGH
STARTS TO DIG THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION, ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
SOUTH TEXAS. GIVEN THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH, THIS WILL BE
THE PERFECT CATALYST FOR ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION, THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
BEST SETUP FOR A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY, WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (50%) IN 1.5-2.0 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE LAST HOUR SO
I HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS FOR ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. THERE
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST CAMS HINT AT
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE, I OPTED TO LEAVE TS OUT OF
THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS AND AMEND AS NECESSARY THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH AND WILL PUSH ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA GENERALLY AFTER 00Z. I'VE
CONTINUED WITH TSRA IN THE PROB30 FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD FROM
00Z-06Z FOR BHM/EET/TCL AND 02Z-08Z FOR AUO/MGM. EXACT TERMINAL
IMPACTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE OUTFLOW FROM THE MORNING
ACTIVITY SETS UP. IF IT CAN MANAGE TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH,
THERE'S SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE EVENING ACTIVITY WILL STAY
ALONG THAT BOUNDARY OR SOUTH OF IT, LIMITING THE TSRA IMPACTS TO
THE NORTHERN SITES. HOWEVER, OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS
BOUNDARY SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN TAF SITES, SO THEY WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF HAVING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
EVENING.
AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR TCL DUE TO INTERMITTENT
OBSERVATIONS.
NOTE: SPRING SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE TAF FOR KASN IS NOW BEING
ISSUED AND WILL RUN THROUGH 04/29 18Z.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AS MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THAT, THERE'S HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT MINRH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 50%
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THEY WILL QUICKLY DROP RIGHT BACK
INTO THE UPPER-30 AND LOW-40% RANGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE FORECAST RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND CRITICALLY DRY
FUELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 81 60 80 52 / 70 90 80 30
ANNISTON 80 62 80 54 / 60 90 70 40
BIRMINGHAM 82 64 81 57 / 70 90 80 40
TUSCALOOSA 83 64 83 57 / 80 90 70 50
CALERA 83 64 84 57 / 70 90 70 50
AUBURN 82 66 84 62 / 50 80 40 60
MONTGOMERY 86 66 87 62 / 50 70 40 60
TROY 86 64 87 62 / 30 60 30 60
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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