037
FXUS64 KBMX 131022
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
522 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 521 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
- MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT: A SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING 105-110 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.
- CONVECTIVE PATTERN: TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
WITH LOW COVERAGE (20-50%), PRIMARILY FOCUSING ON SOUTHERN
ALABAMA WHILE CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS REMAIN LARGELY DRY.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OUT TO OUR WEST WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, WHICH IS HELPING PUSH SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH A SLIGHT JAUNT TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEK,
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO STEADILY WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
EVENTUALLY SETTLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THESE TEMPS
WILL BUMP HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE. THE LATEST
ECMWF EFI HINTS AT UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR US OVER THE
WEEKEND, GENERALLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID AUGUST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE
THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A TYPICALLY SUMMERTIME CONVECTION
REGIME WITH LOW TO MODERATE (20-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AS DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS INLAND. THOSE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY
AS RIDGING HELPS KEEP A LID ON THINGS.
OTHERWISE, FOG POTENTIAL IS LOW TONIGHT. RAP GUIDANCE HINTS AT
NARROWING DEW POINTS AND A FEW POCKETS OF LOWERING CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG, GENERALLY
FOR THOSE THAT SAW SOME RAIN EARLIER TODAY.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT WESTERLY
WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, GENERALLY 7-10 KNOTS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR
OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY. AS RIDGING BUILDS FRIDAY,
CONDITIONS WILL TURN SLIGHTLY DRIER, WITH MINRH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40 PERCENT RANGE IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY THE WEEKEND,
MINRH VALUES WILL FURTHER DECREASE TO NEAR 35-40 PERCENT ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK, THE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED AND
MORE CONFINED TO EASTERN AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, BUT
MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE IF RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS PERSIST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 95 76 97 75 / 10 10 20 0
ANNISTON 93 75 94 75 / 10 10 20 10
BIRMINGHAM 95 77 96 76 / 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 97 77 98 76 / 10 10 10 0
CALERA 96 76 97 75 / 20 10 20 10
AUBURN 92 76 93 77 / 20 10 20 10
MONTGOMERY 97 77 98 77 / 20 10 20 10
TROY 95 75 96 75 / 20 10 30 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-
HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...16
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page