104
FXUS64 KBMX 250002
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
702 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY THIS
EVENING, AS AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS MOVES SE OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. THIS LINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN WORKING INTO
THE AREA SOMETIME AROUND THE 8-10 PM TIMEFRAME, AND REMAIN
FOLLOWING THAT S/SE MOVEMENT. EVEN THOUGH THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER (SPC) HAS MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5), AND
EVEN PUT A FEW OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES INTO THE SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5), CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE OVERALL PROSPECTS
OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TODAY BY, 1) NOT CAPTURING
THE WHOLE ENVIRONMENT, AND 2) NOT INITIALIZING DOWNSTREAM STORMS
WELL. BECAUSE OF THIS, IT'S HARD TO REALLY GET A HANDLE ON WHERE
THIS LINE OF STORMS COULD RUN OUT OF STEAM. THERE IS A CHANCE
THIS LINE WILL STAY TO THE WEST OF US, MERELY CLIPPING OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES WITH ONLY A BREEZE AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
OR, IT COULD SLOWLY START TO DRIFT EAST, WORKING INTO THE AREA AT
SEMI-FULL STRENGTH. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY REMAINS DAMAGING WINDS. A CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION,
BUT THIS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE,
WITH NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
SHIFTING GEARS INTO MONDAY NIGHT, AS OF THIS MORNING THE SPC HAS
COMPLETELY PULLED BACK THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OR 5) THAT'S
SLOWLY BEEN GETTING TRIMMED OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. WITH THAT
BEING SAID, WE DON'T ENTIRELY THINK THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
NONZERO, AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OR 5) GETTING REINTRODUCED
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE MAIN AREA OF FORCING LOCATED
ALONG THE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL TO OUR NW,
WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING ELONGATED AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER, THIS COLD FRONT COULD
STILL DROP INTO THE REGION, WITH FORECAST INSTABILITY VALUES
CURRENTLY BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. SO WHILE THE FORCING
ISN'T THE BEST, DECENT INSTABILITY VALUES COULD HELP OVERCOME
THIS, WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING LIMITED TO DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS IS SOMETHING WE'LL OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FROM HERE, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT BY TUESDAY, AS A
STOUT RIDGE BUILDS WELL TO OUR SW. THIS WILL PUT THE FLOW ALOFT
INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN, KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-
80S.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT
DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HAVE
TRIED TO TIME OUT CONVECTION AS BEST AS POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE
REGARDING OCCURRENCE AND TIMING OF TSRA IS ONLY LOW TO MEDIUM.
THEREFORE, ONLY PROB30S ARE MENTIONED FOR TSRA. ADDITIONALLY,
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
MEDIUM DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING CONVECTION. CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY
INCLUDE PROB30 MENTIONS DUE TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
OBSERVATIONS FROM TCL REMAIN INTERMITTENT, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
AMD NOT SKED THERE.
NOTE: SPRING SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE TAF FOR KASN IS NOW BEING
ISSUED AND WILL RUN THROUGH 04/29 18Z.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY TONIGHT, WITH MINRH VALUES
JUMPING TO ABOVE 60% AREA-WIDE. THEY WILL BRIEFLY DROP INTO
SUNDAY, BEFORE REBOUNDING BY THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. GIVEN
SUSTAINED SOUTH FLOW, AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK, THERE IS
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT MINRH VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE ABOUT
50% INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 58 77 55 83 / 70 60 40 10
ANNISTON 60 78 58 83 / 50 60 50 10
BIRMINGHAM 63 77 60 83 / 70 60 40 20
TUSCALOOSA 62 81 60 84 / 80 60 30 20
CALERA 62 80 59 85 / 60 60 40 20
AUBURN 61 79 62 83 / 20 60 70 20
MONTGOMERY 62 81 62 84 / 30 70 50 20
TROY 60 82 61 84 / 10 70 60 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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