322
FXUS64 KBMX 092256
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
456 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 455 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-80%) RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, AT LEAST FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. EVEN WITH THAT, EXPECT WARMER
CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW,
EXPECT SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WE'LL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH ON LOCATION AND DENSITY OF FOG AT THIS
POINT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY.
THE RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AL TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES (50-70%) EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
AL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH AND CONTINUED
WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHWARD AS AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
DEEPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST SOMETIME SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GUIDANCE
STILL VARIES ON THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH, BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS TOWARDS A DEEPER TROUGH AT THIS POINT, PROVIDING ENOUGH
SUPPORT AND THERMODYNAMICS FOR SHOWERS AND AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO DETERMINE ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 455 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT LOW CLOUDS INTO MUCH OF THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. LOWERED THE NORTH TO MAINLY MVFR WITH SOME
INSTANCES OF IFR AROUND 12 TO 14Z. MEANWHILE SOME ADVECTION FOG
WILL TRY TO WORK INTO AUO AND MGM BY DAYBREAK IN ADDITION TO THE
THE LOW CLOUDS SO ADDED IN TEMPO WORDING FOR THIS AS WELL. BY 15
TO 18Z, CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD BURN OFF AND GENERALLY VFR CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THIS PERIOD.
16
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION. MINRHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50-70% RANGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL AL. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY THEN NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN AND PERHAPS STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 46 71 53 64 / 0 0 60 60
ANNISTON 48 71 53 64 / 0 0 60 60
BIRMINGHAM 51 71 55 64 / 0 0 60 50
TUSCALOOSA 50 73 55 67 / 0 0 50 30
CALERA 49 72 53 67 / 0 0 50 40
AUBURN 48 71 55 68 / 0 0 40 40
MONTGOMERY 49 74 57 72 / 0 0 30 30
TROY 49 74 58 73 / 0 0 20 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...16
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