122
FXUS64 KBMX 061956
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
256 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
COOL MORNINGS AND WARM TO HOT AFTERNOONS.
- A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF BY
THIS WEEKEND, BUT TIMING AND DETAILS OF IMPACTS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AS THE SYSTEM HAS NOT FORMED YET.
- AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE POTENTIAL IMPACT IS HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, FOLLOWED BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS CAUSING AT LEAST SCATTERED
DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHEAST AND A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF WILL
PROVIDE A FEED OF DRY AIR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH COOL
MORNINGS BUT WARM TO HOT AFTERNOONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE (SW GULF) ARE GRADUALLY
INCREASING IN ORGANIZATION WITH FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES. NHC
INDICATES A NEAR 100% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY OCCUR VERY
SOON. MEANWHILE A DEVELOPING BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER
TEXAS WILL CAUSE THIS POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM TO LIFT NORTHWARD
LATER THIS WEEK. THIS TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL JET
WILL CAUSE THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM TO BE SHEARED, THOUGH MAY ALSO
ACTUALLY AID IN SOME SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR INTENSIFICATION. UNTIL
A CLOSED CIRCULATION FORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM, THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY, AND IT'S IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE LATEST PHYSICAL AND AI MODEL ENSEMBLES,
THERE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM
EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE MS/AL VICINITY. HOWEVER,
THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE SPREAD ALONG THE TRACK REGARDING HOW
QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTH. IN GENERAL MANY OF THE AI
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE FASTER AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER THAN THE
PHYSICAL MODEL ENSEMBLES. IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS QUICKER,
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH A
LITTLE LESS SHEAR, AND MORE TIME FOR INTENSIFICATION THAN IF IT
IS SLOW TO DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE
HIGHEST IMPACTS TO BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE FASTER
END OF THE SOLUTIONS. THERE IS AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO WHERE THE
SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN INTO SUNDAY, OR A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO
WHERE THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN THE GULF LONGER THAN THAT. GIVEN THE
WIND SHEAR, THIS WILL BE A "LOPSIDED"/ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH THE
LARGEST IMPACTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TRACK, THOUGH AS IT BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TRACK. WITH A "LOPSIDED"
SYSTEM, HOWEVER, IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT IMPACTS CAN BE
DISPLACED FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTER, AND IT'S IMPORTANT NOT TO
FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IMPACT AT THIS TIME
IS HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE NEXT
HIGHEST IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND
POSSIBLE DOWNED TREES/POWER OUTAGES. THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE IMPACT
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL TORNADOES. MORE DETAILS ON
THESE THREATS WILL BE INCLUDED BELOW.
HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING:
DROUGHT REMAINS ONGOING OVER THE AREA, BUT SOME AREAS DID RECEIVE
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL LAST WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY OUR FAR SOUTHWEST
AND FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. STREAMFLOWS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS WEST ALABAMA,
WHILE STREAMFLOWS ARE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(THOUGH NORMAL IS FAIRLY LOW THIS TIME OF YEAR) ELSEWHERE. STILL,
WITH COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WE WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. IT'S TOO EARLY TO
FOCUS ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS QUITE YET, AS THEY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE SPEED, STRENGTH, AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, BUT WPC DOES HAVE A
HIGHER-END SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.
GRADIENT/TROPICAL WINDS:
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS
THE 1032MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF NEW YORK CITY
RESULTING IN A COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE. THIS WILL TIGHTEN UP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSE EASTERLY WINDS TO BE QUITE BREEZY AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. AT MINIMUM, WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A WIND
ADVISORY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED
TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.
SEVERE WEATHER/TROPICAL TORNADOES:
UNSURPRISINGLY, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH AS
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. MID-LEVEL WINDS/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ARE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM DUE TO
PHASING WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR AS IT OFTEN IS AS WE MOVE INTO THE COOL SEASON IS
INSTABILITY. THE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED EASTERLY
WINDS RESULTING IN EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT
DRIVEN RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY, UNLESS PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE SYSTEM ARE
STRONG ENOUGH. THERE'S ALWAYS A FINE LINE BETWEEN "HIGH SHEAR LOW
CAPE" AND "HIGH SHEAR NO CAPE", SO WHILE THE "HIGH SHEAR NO CAPE"
MAY BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WE WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANYWHERE SOME WEAK SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. TYPICALLY THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT IS THE
FAVORED QUADRANT, THOUGH WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT LATER ON IN THE EVENT AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS A WEDGE OF DRY
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. THERE IS A VERY LOW (10-20%) CHANCE
OF LOW CLOUDS AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS, BUT THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO IS THAT LOW CLOUDS STAY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS CLOSER TO
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND A LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES, BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT, THEN
PICKING BACK UP TOMORROW MORNING.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. RH VALUES WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHER VALUES IN FAR EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 25 TO
35 RANGE FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. FIRE
DANGER MAY BE A LITTLE ELEVATED FRIDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 51 85 52 88 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 54 86 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 57 87 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 59 91 59 93 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 58 86 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 60 83 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 60 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 60 84 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...32/JDAVIS
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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