584
FXUS64 KBMX 141102
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
602 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
- PERSISTENT HEAT: AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT
INDICES FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO ABOVE 100 DEGREES. TAKE EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS WITH ANY EXTENDED AFTERNOON OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
THE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. IN
TURN, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. BY THIS TIME MONDAY, THIS BUILDING
RIDGE WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER TENNESSEE, DECREASING OUR RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK SIGNIFICANTLY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
GENERALLY BE LOW (<20%), WITH ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM BEING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY.
LATEST CAMS SHOW MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTH AND WEST
ON MONDAY (<25%), WARRANTING A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN POPS.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO QUICKLY REBOUND BY MONDAY,
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID AND UPPER-90S. WHILE AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 100 DEGREES, NO HEAT
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK OF HIGHER HUMIDITY;
HOWEVER, PROPER HYDRATION AND HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS ARE ADVISED
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THIS
GENERAL FORECAST TREND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AS VERY
LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS.
16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
LIGHT FOG IS CURRENTLY ONGOING AT TCL, KEEPING VIS AT MVFR AND
OCCASIONALLY IFR. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY BY OR BEFORE 13Z.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM AFFECTING MGM
AND TCL THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN IMPACTS TO
TERMINALS TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
AMD NOT SKED IS APPENDED AT AUO DUE TO MISSING OBSERVATIONS.
12
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BETWEEN 35-45% THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, WITH VERY LIMITED RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST PAST
MONDAY. WHILE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW FOR NOW,
INCREASING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PUSH THESE CONCERNS UP BY LATE
NEXT WEEK IF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOES NOT FALL BY THEN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 96 70 96 69 / 10 0 10 0
ANNISTON 95 70 94 69 / 10 0 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 96 73 96 73 / 10 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 99 73 99 74 / 20 0 0 0
CALERA 96 72 97 73 / 10 0 0 0
AUBURN 94 73 93 72 / 10 0 10 0
MONTGOMERY 96 72 96 73 / 10 0 0 0
TROY 95 71 95 71 / 10 0 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...12
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