296
FXUS64 KBMX 030533
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1133 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1124 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
- TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN TYPICAL FOR EARLY
MARCH WITH HIGHS AND LOWS AS MUCH AS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
- PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN FROM THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
OUR CURRENT SATELLITE PICTURE IS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS C AL ATTM
WITH CLOUDS IN ALL DIRECTIONS AROUND US. THAT WILL CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY WAY OF STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE S PART OF AL AND FROM THE
E FROM GA. TO OUR N, WE HAVE A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXCEPT FOR
A LITTLE WEDGE THAT HAS DIPPED INTO THE NE COUNTIES. UNFORTUNATELY,
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PULL BACK TO THE NWD ON TUE WITH C
AL STAYING IN THE WARM, WELL ABOVE NORMAL, BUT STILL RAIN FREE
AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WE HAVE
A FLAT RIDGE ACROSS MEXICO AND EWD ACROSS INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL
CHANGE AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS AS A STRONGER LOW DIGS IN THE WRN US. THIS WILL PUSH
OUR UPPER RIDGE TO OVER FL AND INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC TO CREATE SW
UPPER FLOW INTO AL BY THU. WE SHOULD HAVE A FEW RIPPLES TRAVERSING
AROUND THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE SW FLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS BY THU AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FOR FRI AFTERNOON.
OVERALL MOISTURE ACROSS AL CONTINUES TO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS ACROSS THE W COAST OF THE US AND EJECT OUT
BITS OF ENERGY INTO THE FLOW INTO AL TO HELP GENERATE OFF/ON
CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
08
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING REVEALS A SHORTWAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN DRIVING A LARGE BATCH OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AL AND TN. WEAK RIDGING AND DRY AIR IN PLACE
WILL KEEP US DRY FOR THE MOST PART. WITH THAT SAID, WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A ROGUE SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE TO OVERCOME A LARGE
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS SO WOULD EXPECT ANY
RETURNS ON THE KBMX TO BE VIRGA INITIALLY. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OPTED TO NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A HANDFUL OF DEGREES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TOMORROW AS THE WEDGE BEGINS TO WORK
IN. WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR SETUP ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT DOESN'T LOOK
TO BE AS STRONG. OTHERWISE, WE WILL ADD ON A FEW DEGREES EVERY
DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN JEOPARDY
THROUGH THE WEEK (SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS).
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE THIS WORK WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STOUT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS WHILE PULLING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION. AT
THIS TIME, THERE DOESN'T LOOK TO BE TOO MUCH FORCING AVAILABLE AT
THE SURFACE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR NORTH.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES AT THIS HOUR, BUT MVFR
CEILINGS ARE VISIBLE ON NIGHT FOG SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER GEORGIA
AND ALONG THE GULF COAST NEAR MOBILE. THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL
ADVECT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH REDUCTIONS IN
FLIGHT CRITERIA EXPECTED FIRST AT AUO AND TCL THEN THE REMAINING
SITES SHORTLY AFTER. LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AFTER SUNRISE, BUT
EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE AND VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY 17-18Z.
WINDS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TONIGHT AROUND 4-8 KTS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-18 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN FREE BUT NOT QUITE AS DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH MIN RHS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO 40-50% RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK. LOW PROBABILITY
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
MARCH 4:
KBHM: 84/1976
KEET: 84/2022
KTCL: 83/1976
KMGM: 85/2022
MARCH 5:
KBHM: 83/1974
KEET: 83/2022
KANB: 84/1974
KTCL: 83/1974
KMGM: 85/1989
MARCH 6:
KBHM: 83/1974
KEET: 81/2023
KANB: 84/1974
KTCL: 83/1974
KMGM: 86/2022
MARCH 7:
KBHM: 84/1956
KEET: 83/2023
KANB: 85/1974
KTCL: 85/2023
KMGM: 87/2023
MARCH 8:
KBHM: 83/1974
KEET: 81/2000
KANB: 84/1974
KTCL: 83/1992
KMGM: 84/1951
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 50 74 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 52 74 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 55 76 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 54 80 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 53 77 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 55 74 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 53 78 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 53 77 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08/95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
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