177  
FXUS64 KBMX 031837  
AFDBMX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL  
1237 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2022  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2022  
 
THE COLD FRONT IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF I-59/20, AND SURFACE WINDS  
ARE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. A  
DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS IS GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE  
I-85 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FADE THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON AS FORCING WANES WHILE THE TROUGH PULLS FURTHER NORTH  
THROUGH HUDSON BAY. DRY, COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, BUT  
LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT STALLS EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA.  
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE  
NORTH WHERE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S  
WITH MID 50S SOUTHEAST NEAR THE FRONT.  
 
THE FRONT WILL MEANDER ALONG THE GULF COAST TOMORROW WITH COOLER AIR  
RESIDING ACROSS OUR NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S  
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE  
AGAIN LATE TOMORROW WITH HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO A  
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT  
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
 
86/MARTIN  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST SAT DEC 3 2022  
 
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SPAN FROM THE BAJA  
PENINSULA TO THE BAHAMAS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A SUBTLE  
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY, CAUSING A STALLED FRONT TO RETURN  
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD  
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF  
OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON  
THROUGH THURSDAY, PUSHING THE FRONT AND HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES  
NORTHWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REACHING  
THE MID TO UPPER 580S DM, NEAR-RECORD WARMTH APPEARS LIKELY IN THE  
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. BY FRIDAY, MODELS DIVERGE ON THE  
HANDLING OF THE RIDGE AND PROSPECTS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE BACK  
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
87/GRANTHAM  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2022  
 
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS IS SITUATED ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR  
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF I-59/20.  
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF  
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE GULF COAST. MOIST SURFACE  
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG AT TOI AND POTENTIALLY MGM FROM  
~09-15Z. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AREA-WIDE BY  
15-16Z.  
 
86/MARTIN  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT  
TODAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 MPH THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE  
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF DRY  
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN  
ARRIVES ON MONDAY. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL  
THRESHOLDS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
GADSDEN 37 58 42 56 / 0 10 20 80  
ANNISTON 41 61 46 57 / 0 10 20 70  
BIRMINGHAM 41 59 46 59 / 0 10 20 70  
TUSCALOOSA 40 59 46 63 / 0 10 20 50  
CALERA 44 61 48 61 / 10 10 20 50  
AUBURN 50 65 50 62 / 20 10 10 20  
MONTGOMERY 51 66 49 69 / 20 10 10 20  
TROY 55 69 51 69 / 30 10 10 10  
 

 
   
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...86/MARTIN  
LONG TERM....87  
AVIATION...86/MARTIN  
 
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