003
FXUS64 KBMX 050540
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1240 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
- HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE
MID-WEEK, CREATING A MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY; ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN GEORGIA. DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST,
WHILE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST, CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW AND ITS WRAP-AROUND. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A 20-
60% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BY THURSDAY, THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT
NORTH, EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETS UP THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT,
LEADING TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED NEAR SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS DECREASE. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXISTS THAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PUSH MAX HEAT INDICES TO 95-
100 DEGREES, CREATING A MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA.
16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE STILL
EXISTS FOR SOME LIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT EET AND TCL FOR
A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE, BUT OTHERWISE NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN VERY LIGHT DURING THE DAY TODAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR BHM, EET, AND AUO
AFTER 18Z WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA REMAINING IN THE FORECAST.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HELP KEEP MINRH VALUES GENERALLY
ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EAST OF I-
65. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 90 71 92 72 / 60 20 50 20
ANNISTON 88 71 90 71 / 60 20 50 20
BIRMINGHAM 89 73 91 73 / 40 20 30 20
TUSCALOOSA 93 73 93 73 / 10 10 20 10
CALERA 90 72 92 72 / 30 20 30 20
AUBURN 88 73 89 73 / 40 20 30 20
MONTGOMERY 93 74 94 73 / 30 20 30 20
TROY 92 72 92 71 / 30 20 30 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...56/GDG
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