129
FXUS64 KBMX 262358
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
658 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- HEAT & HUMIDITY: A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT INDICES EXPECTED TO
APPROACH 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND, AND RISE WELL ABOVE 100
DEGREES FOR MULTIPLE DAYS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL POSE A MODERATE
TO MAJOR HEAT RISK OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION, AND HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED OVER MULTIPLE DAYS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
AS EXPECTED, THE MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN
RELEGATED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE CWA, WHERE THE
BEST MOISTURE PROFILE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT. PWATS OF OVER
2 INCHES REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA, WHILE 1.6 TO 1.7 PWATS ARE PRESENT FARTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE 12Z KBMX SOUNDING THIS MORNING MEASURED PLENTIFUL
AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT ABOVE 700MB, WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN
OVERALL LACK OF CONVECTION FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TODAY. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
WHAT APPEARS TO BE OROGRAPHIC LIFT OF PARCELS UP AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN OUR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN RELEGATED TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND,
AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY TRACKING WESTWARD FROM ARKANSAS THROUGH
TENNESSEE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL POSE A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT AS WELL AS A FLOOD THREAT FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
MEANWHILE, AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST AT 700MB WE'LL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AND HOT THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH ONLY SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS FAR EASTERN ALABAMA.
WE'LL START TO TURN THE OVEN UP AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN
EXPANSIVE 596 DECAMETER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST BY MONDAY, AND EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IT'S PRETTY MUCH A FOREGONE
CONCLUSION THAT WE'LL NEED TO ISSUE HEAT ADVISORIES FOR MULTIPLE
DAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PROBABILITIES OF
SEEING 100+ DEGREE HEAT INDICES ARE 80-100% ACROSS A VAST
MAJORITY OF THE STATE DURING THOSE DAYS. BY WEDNESDAY, RAIN
CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY GO UP FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS
DISTURBANCES TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. SCATTERED
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THE DANGEROUS HEAT
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE
RIDGE ADVERTISED TO STRENGTHEN CLOSE TO 600 DECAMETERS BY GLOBAL
GUIDANCE.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AT
ALL SITES THANKS TO RIDGING. THERE ARE ONLY VERY LOW CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION, BUT THESE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO PINPOINT AT ANY
SPECIFIC LOCALE TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE, OFF AND ON HIGH CIRRUS
WILL BE NOTED AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH MIXING.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AUO TAF UNTIL DATA
ISSUES WITH OBSERVATIONS ARE RESOLVED.
08
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR SOME THROUGH
SATURDAY, BUT CONDITIONS GENERALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
WETTING RAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
HEAT INDICES APPROACH AND TOP 100 DEGREES. FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE HUMID AIR MASS BUILDS IN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 74 92 73 93 / 0 20 20 10
ANNISTON 74 91 74 92 / 10 20 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 75 92 75 94 / 0 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 75 92 75 94 / 0 0 10 0
CALERA 75 94 74 96 / 10 0 10 10
AUBURN 73 90 74 91 / 20 20 10 10
MONTGOMERY 74 92 74 92 / 20 20 0 10
TROY 73 92 73 93 / 20 20 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...56/GDG
AVIATION...08
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