159
FXUS64 KBMX 120028
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
728 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 727 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE, AROUND 20 PERCENT, FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AT TIMES THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
A LONGWAVE POSITIVE-TILTED TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
ARKLATEX REGION AT THIS TIME AND IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA THAT IS MOVING EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
COASTLINE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW, ABOUT
20 PERCENT, CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH MID EVENING. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S FAR
NORTH TO THE LOW 60S FAR SOUTHEAST.
A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALOFT OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH SUPPORT WILL EXIST FOR A LOW,
AROUND 20%, CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S THROUGH LATE WEEK WHILE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S ON
THURSDAY, THEN WILL BE IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT DURING THE DAY.
A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS PROGGED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S SATURDAY WITH A FEW SPOTS NEARING 90 DEGREES ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST
OVER THE AREA WHILE HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
SOME VERY ISOLATED, 15-30 PERCENT, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY
RELIEF FROM THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA.
05
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 727 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED AT ALL SITES AT THIS TIME. MOST SITES
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF MGM AND AUO. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THE CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST AND MISS ALL TAF SITES, MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING, 13-14Z, AND LAST
ALL DAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT
AND EASTERLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO SHIFTING OF
THE MAIN EAST CONUS SURFACE RIDGE.
08
FIRE WEATHER
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING, UNTIL THEN THERE WILL BE A LOW, ABOUT 20%, CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH READINGS FROM THE LOW 40 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TO VALUES IN THE MID 50 PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST TO READINGS
NEAR 50 PERCENT FAR EAST AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST. A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS, ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE, ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BUT
THEN RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY, RESULTING IN
INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AS
HIGHS APPROACH 90 ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 51 80 54 82 / 0 0 10 10
ANNISTON 54 79 56 81 / 0 0 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 57 81 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 57 82 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 57 82 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 61 79 61 82 / 0 10 0 10
MONTGOMERY 61 81 60 83 / 10 10 0 10
TROY 61 81 60 84 / 20 20 10 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...08
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