011
FXUS64 KBMX 251642
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1142 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
WHAT A PLEASANT START TO THE MORNING. BETWEEN THE LOWER TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS, IT WAS A LOVELY DRIVE INTO THE OFFICE. LOOK FOR
THESE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER THE SHORT-TERM, WITH LOWS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW RANGING IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S. YES, YOU READ THAT
RIGHT: UPPER-50S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ALSO BE LOVELY BEHIND THE
UPCOMING SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE, RANGING IN THE UPPER-70S TO MID-
80S.
/44/
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
THE LONG-TERM IS BEST SUMMARIZED BY THIS: MORE COLD FRONTS.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID-80S. THE SECOND
REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY, KEEPING THAT COOL, DRY AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER, MOISTURE RETURN WILL GET UNDER BY THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR
RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN AHEAD OF THE THIRD FRONTAL BOUNDARY "PASSAGE"
SOMETIME CLOSER TO FRIDAY. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THIS FRONT SHOULD
QUICKLY BECOME DEFUSE, ALLOWING FOR A SHORTWAVE TO RIDE THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES SUSTAINED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN ADDED AT TCL UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING
MINRH VALUES DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30% TO LOW 40% RANGE. THE
REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW, KEEPING MINRH VALUES IN THIS RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND, AS THE THIRD COLD FRONT IN
THE FORECAST PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN THE LIMITED DRYING
PATTERN, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE AT THIS
TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 83 60 80 56 / 0 10 10 0
ANNISTON 84 60 80 56 / 0 10 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 85 64 80 58 / 0 10 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 88 65 82 60 / 0 10 20 0
CALERA 86 64 81 59 / 0 10 20 0
AUBURN 87 63 83 61 / 0 0 10 0
MONTGOMERY 89 63 86 61 / 0 0 10 0
TROY 88 63 86 62 / 0 0 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM.../44/
LONG TERM..../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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