016
FXUS64 KBMX 272324
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
624 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
- HEAT: DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 109 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT.
- SEVERE WEDNESDAY: THERE IS A 1, OUT OF 5 MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK. TUESDAY STANDS OUT AS THE
HOTTEST AND MOST OPPRESSIVE DAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID- TO
UPPER 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 110. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED, BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN AREAS AND
EXPANDING AREA-WIDE THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THE MCS TRAIN
PERSISTS, THE PRIMARY TRACK APPEARS TO REMAIN EAST OF OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY, LIMITING RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES ALONG THE
RIDGE'S PERIPHERY. BY MID-WEEK, THE RIDGE SUPPRESSES AS A TROUGH
BUILDS OVER THE EAST COAST AND A DEEP LOW DEVELOPS OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL COOLDOWN,
WITH HIGHS TRENDING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S BY FRIDAY.
16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG CLOSER
TO SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS MORNING.
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL CLEAR OUT BY 13-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS
THEN CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
GENERALLY 7-10 KNOTS.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
SUPPORTED BY A WARM, HUMID AIR MASS AND PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES.
MINRH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH
MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 74 96 75 90 / 0 10 20 30
ANNISTON 74 95 75 90 / 0 10 10 20
BIRMINGHAM 76 97 77 91 / 0 10 10 40
TUSCALOOSA 77 98 78 93 / 10 10 10 40
CALERA 75 97 77 94 / 10 10 0 40
AUBURN 75 96 78 91 / 10 10 10 40
MONTGOMERY 75 98 78 95 / 10 10 0 30
TROY 74 96 77 95 / 20 10 0 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LOWNDES-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-
SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-
CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-LEE-MACON-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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