704
FXUS64 KBMX 011122
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
622 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH BETTER POTENTIAL SOUTH.
- A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.
- A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WHILE
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA. A STATIONARY
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST,
RESULTING IN SHOWERS BEING MOST LIKELY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL DEAMPLIFY TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH
NEAR ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WHILE TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR 80 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH FROM THE WEST WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AGAIN WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS ON THURSDAY.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY.
05
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BUT BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD GENERALLY AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING. SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE MORE MODERATE
SHOWERS BUILD IN THIS EVENING, THEN BECOMING MVFR TO IFR. LATEST
TRENDS IN GUIDANCE HAVE HELD THE IFR CEILINGS SOUTH OF BHM, BUT
MAINTAIN THAT IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER SITES AS WE
APPROACH 06Z. FROM 06Z-12Z, RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LEADING TO PERIODS OF LOWERED VISIBILITY IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE TO THE
EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD, BUT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL JUST AFTER
12Z.
AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR TCL DUE TO INTERMITTENT
OBSERVATIONS.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AGAIN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH RH MINIMUMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30 PERCENT RANGE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 47 67 40 / 20 80 30 0
ANNISTON 70 48 66 42 / 30 90 40 0
BIRMINGHAM 70 50 67 45 / 40 90 30 0
TUSCALOOSA 68 49 70 44 / 60 90 20 0
CALERA 70 49 69 44 / 50 90 30 0
AUBURN 69 52 66 46 / 70 100 70 0
MONTGOMERY 67 51 68 43 / 80 100 50 0
TROY 67 50 67 43 / 80 100 60 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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