501
FXUS64 KBMX 181755
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1255 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
AN EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF TO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WARM LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, PUSHING
TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE RANGES. TEMPERATURES SHOULDN'T
REACH RECORD VALUES HOWEVER, BUT HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE AREA,
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY, SO CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE THAT
MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF TONIGHT, SO EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS AREAS OF ADVECTION FOG TOMORROW MORNING, THEN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO ROTATE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
86/MARTIN
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THIS LONG TERM FORECAST UPDATE. A STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM LESS THAN 1/4" ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS TO 1-1.5" ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ONLY HINTS AT A 15-30%
CHANCE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 2".
95/CASTILLO
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM OKLAHOMA TO
THE GREAT LAKES, ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE
IN THE VICINITY OF WISCONSIN BY MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY, BECOMING STALLED ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. BY MONDAY MORNING, CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA. AS THE BOUNDARY
MEANDERS NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME, NO APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT AREA EXISTS
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED. GENERAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WILL BE HIGHEST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 80S, ALTHOUGH A COUPLE DAYS MAY STAY IN
THE UPPER 70S IF CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN.
12
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2025
A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WHILE
LONGWAVE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER PLAINS TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
DECREASING AFTER 00Z. A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 06Z,
MAINLY AFFECTING TCL/EET/BHM. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AS WELL,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER REGARDING THE LOW CEILINGS, SO DID NOT
INCLUDE MUCH VISIBILITY IMPACTS IN THE TAF FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RESUME AFTER 13-14Z AS CEILINGS RISE.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIN RHS TODAY
WILL FALL INTO THE 20-30% RANGE FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH RHS IN THE 35-45% RANGE WITH
SOUTHERLY GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH LIKELY AGAIN. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA, KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 56 87 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 57 86 62 84 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 61 86 65 85 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 62 86 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 60 85 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 57 85 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 56 87 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 56 87 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...86
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