972
FXUS64 KBMX 101927
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
127 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1250 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (30-80%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH.
- TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- HIGH (80-90%) RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS, AT LEAST FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY:
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING HAVE SLOWED DOWN
TEMPERATURES SO FAR, BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES TAKING PLACE (OTHER
THAN HIGH CLOUDS) THEY HAVE NOW STARTED TO RISE. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. MID-LEVELS QUICKLY MOISTEN THIS EVENING, WHILE
LOW-LEVELS WILL TAKE A WHILE LONGER TO MOISTEN. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN
TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE OZARKS
WILL EVENTUALLY REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING, WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG IT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME MUCAPE BUT MOSTLY BELOW THE MIXED PHASE
REGION. A NONZERO RISK FOR THUNDER WILL EXIST, BUT WITH HREF
PROBABILITIES REMAINING 10 PERCENT OR LESS WILL NOT INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, BUT WITH MID-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THEY WILL BE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE.
THE FRONT HAS TRENDED A BIT STRONGER. HAVE TRENDED DOWN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH BUT THEY
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER DUE TO POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDINESS/CAA. LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SIMILARLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH THE FRONT REMAINING STALLED
OFF THE GULF COAST. SMALL RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY WITH A FEW
DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL WAA.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS IT AS AN
OPEN LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH WHILE OTHER CLOSE IT OFF INTO AN UPPER
LOW. SOME FRONTOGENESIS-INDUCED RAIN MAY START OFF ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL QLCS MOVING IN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW LATITUDE/SOUTHERN
TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW SHOWN BY THE MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS/DETERMINISTIC MODELS TYPICALLY SUGGESTS SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY REMAINING CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST, THOUGH
THERE IS A SMALLER MINORITY OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS AND THE AI-GFS
THAT SHOW A TRACK A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH. WHILE WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR, PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AT
THIS TIME, WITH INSTABILITY MOSTLY SHOWING UP BEHIND THE
CONVECTION NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT THIS MORNING, BUT
SATELLITE IS FINALLY SHOWING RAPID CLEARING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY 19Z. LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING, BUT WON'T HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON VISIBILITIES
INITIALLY. A BAND OF SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT
WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH THE MORNING. CIGS
WILL LOWER BACK DOWN TO MVFR-IFR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ALONG A COLD
FRONT WITH 20FT WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY TOMORROW. THE FRONT HAS
TRENDED STRONGER RESULTING IN DRIER AIR MOVING IN. RH VALUES MAY
DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AN PERHAPS STORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 55 62 33 60 / 80 80 0 0
ANNISTON 56 64 36 62 / 60 70 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 57 63 38 62 / 60 60 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 58 66 38 65 / 50 40 0 0
CALERA 56 66 38 64 / 60 40 0 0
AUBURN 56 68 41 64 / 50 40 10 0
MONTGOMERY 58 73 42 66 / 40 40 10 0
TROY 58 74 44 68 / 30 30 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...32/JDAVIS
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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