967
FXUS64 KBMX 171058
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
558 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
- HEAT: MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
TRANSITIONING TO A MAJOR HEAT RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY REACHING 105 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
BROAD RIDGING REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HOLDS TO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN GULF MAINTAINS A LOW (<20%)
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT. WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
EAST COAST TROUGH MAY MISS THIS DISTURBANCE, POTENTIALLY TRAPPING
IT UNDER THE RIDGE, UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS EXACT TRAJECTORY
PERSISTS. UNTIL THE SYSTEM'S PATH CLARIFIES, WE EXPECT INCREASED
GULF MOISTURE AND HIGHER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
INTO CENTRAL AL, FAVORING A WARMING TREND AND REDUCED
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-
90S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY
REACHING 100-105. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS FOR
POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MID-WEEK.
16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
A WEAKNESS IN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
ALABAMA, WHERE SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS COULD BE BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY THIS
ACTIVITY, WARRANTING A PROB30 FOR ALL SITES, EXCLUDING TCL,
EFFECTIVE AFTER 18Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
87/GRANTHAM
FIRE WEATHER
THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AL. INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN GULF IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON. THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 91 72 92 73 / 50 20 40 20
ANNISTON 90 72 91 73 / 50 20 40 20
BIRMINGHAM 91 74 93 75 / 50 20 30 10
TUSCALOOSA 93 75 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
CALERA 94 73 96 74 / 40 20 30 10
AUBURN 90 74 91 74 / 30 20 50 30
MONTGOMERY 93 74 93 75 / 30 20 30 20
TROY 91 73 92 74 / 20 20 40 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...87/GRANTHAM
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