377
FXUS64 KBMX 171735
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1235 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
- HEAVY RAINFALL: A WET PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
- SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5)
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADOES.
- THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING A BOUNDARY LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
COAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN SLIDE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE BY THE
EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN UNDER CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART.
RAINFALL WILL BE EFFICIENT AND COULD BE HEAVY WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THE NHC HAS OFFICIALLY NAMED THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. THE OUTER RAIN SHIELD FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ARTHUR SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 1 TO 3 AM.
THE EXACT EXTENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
TRACK OF ARTHUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A FEW MODELS INDICATE A
MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE, WHILE OTHERS STAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTION
OF THE STATE FOR THURSDAY. WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR BRIEF, SPIN-UP TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS THURSDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST WHILE DISSIPATING IN
STRENGTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM THE NHC STILL HAS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT REACHES WESTERN
LOUISIANA BEFORE CROSSING INTO MISSISSIPPI. BESIDES THE LOW
TORNADO THREAT, FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
BANDING FEATURES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
HIGH RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE REMAINING TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE FLASH FLOODING AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE BOUNDARY STALLING AND
RETURNING ONSHORE FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY SLIP INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH COULD
BRING STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO CONSENSUS ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PENETRATE, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING POTENTIAL IMPACTS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CREEP BACK
UP, CONTRIBUTING TO DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
A SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THE
SOUTH RIGHT NOW AND WILL IMPACT THE NORTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THIS CONVECTION WILL CLEAR BY 23 TO 00Z, WITH A LULL IN RAINFALL
THROUGH 5 TO 7Z. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD FROM THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE AREA BY 9
TO 11Z AND THEN SLOWLY EDGE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE THROUGH MORNING TO GENERALLY 12 TO 15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR AS WELL AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE. CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
16
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AS WE WILL REMAIN IN A WET
PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP
MINRH VALUES ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 74 80 71 85 / 30 90 60 70
ANNISTON 73 78 71 83 / 30 90 70 70
BIRMINGHAM 74 79 71 85 / 50 90 70 80
TUSCALOOSA 74 81 72 85 / 70 100 60 90
CALERA 73 78 71 86 / 50 100 70 80
AUBURN 73 77 71 83 / 30 100 90 90
MONTGOMERY 74 78 72 85 / 60 100 90 90
TROY 74 78 72 84 / 50 100 100 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-
PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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