768
FXUS64 KBMX 151053
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
553 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 552 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
- FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO RECENT
DRYNESS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, AND INCREASED WINDS AT
TIMES. OUTDOOR BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THIS WEEK
WITH ONLY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS ANOTHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE
COUNTRY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIP ACROSS THE PLAINS. UPPER
RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS HELPING TO DEFLECT THIS
ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT TO
THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PEELS ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL OPEN A BRIEF WINDOW DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY FOR A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS OUR NW AREAS. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO AS MOISTURE RECOVERY DOES NOT LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE. ONCE AGAIN, "DROUGHT BEGETS DROUGHT". UPPER RIDGING
QUICKLY BUILDS BACK IN AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, A STOUT UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BE SENT OUR WAY, MOVING INTO OUR NW AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CLEARING OUR SE COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OUR RAIN CHANCES LOOK A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS OUR LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE
HINTS AT A HEALTHIER PLUME OF MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS THE REGION. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF LOW TO MODERATE (20-60%) RAIN
CHANCES LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR QUICKLY
FILTERS BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD
INTO THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OUR WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS
EACH AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE A 30-70% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 90F. IT'S LIKELY THAT WE SEE SOME HIGH TEMP RECORDS BROKEN
AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. TO ADD CONFIDENCE HERE, THE ECMWF
EFI/SOT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT AN ANOMALOUS HEAT EVENT FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THESE WARM TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF CYCLE. LIGHT
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
WIND DROP BACK OFF AFTER 00Z.
16
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN DAILY AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE WEEK. MINRHS WILL DROP INTO THE 25-35% RANGE ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE SLIGHTLY INCREASES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH MINRH VALES FROM 30-40%. HOWEVER, ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY WITH GUSTS FROM 10-15 MPH. OUTSIDE OF A
LOW CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AREAS, DRY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING A LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON OUR FIRE WEATHER THREAT AS RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 20-30% RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 15:
KBHM: 88/1936
KEET: 85/2012
KANB: 89/1972
KTCL: 88/1972
KMGM: 91/1972
APRIL 16:
KBHM: 89/1977
KEET: 84/2013
KTCL: 90/1955
KMGM: 90/1925
APRIL 17:
KBHM: 90/1955
KEET: 86/2013
KTCL: 92/1955
KMGM: 90/1955
APRIL 18:
KBHM: 91/2006
KEET: 90/2006
KANB: 90/1955
KMGM: 91/2006
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 85 56 85 57 / 0 0 10 10
ANNISTON 85 58 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 86 61 85 62 / 0 0 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 85 60 85 61 / 0 0 10 0
CALERA 86 58 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 86 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 87 58 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 86 57 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...16
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