068
FXUS64 KBMX 280020
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
720 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
- HEAT & HUMIDITY: DANGEROUS HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS, AND HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR MULTIPLE
DAYS. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 100 OR JUST ABOVE TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, RISING TO 105 DEGREES OR GREATER BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT RISK WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE MAJOR
CATEGORY FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
CENTRAL ALABAMA IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A RELATIVELY QUIET BUT
HOT AND HUMID DAY, WITH RADAR SHOWING ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION AS
OF 3PM. THE HEAT DOME IS TAKING SHAPE BETWEEN 500 AND 300MB ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND IS PROJECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD AND
WESTWARD IN THE COMING DAYS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND, WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT IS
POSITIONED WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE EXISTING PRESSURE GRADIENT. GIVEN THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING COMBINED WITH DRIER, WARMER AIR ALOFT, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LIMITED FOR THE DURATION OF THE DAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.
WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS TOWARD THE NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE, MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE RIDGE'S EASTERN EDGE
THROUGH EAST TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN GEORGIA. CONSEQUENTLY, A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
FOR FAR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT, THOUGH MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY TO OUR EAST. BY SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB FURTHER, WITH MANY SPOTS REACHING THE MID 90S. ALTHOUGH A
FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE HEAT INDICES APPROACH THE 105-DEGREE MARK,
THESE INSTANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A HEAT
ADVISORY. ADDITIONALLY, AS 500-300MB WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE, A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERNMOST COUNTIES.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD, AND A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR BOTH DAYS. A 596 DECAMETER UPPER
RIDGE WILL EXPAND SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S, SUPPORTED BY 1000-850MB THICKNESSES,
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN. FORECASTED HEAT INDICES RANGE
FROM 105 TO 107 DEGREES ON MONDAY, INCREASING TO BETWEEN 105 AND
110 DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA BY TUESDAY.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD BY TUESDAY, SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN. MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ARE
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO TRACK WEST FROM GEORGIA INTO ALABAMA
ALONG THE RIDGE'S SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. WHILE THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE,
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DUSTING OFF MY SUMMER CONVECTION AND MICROBURST PROCEDURES,
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IF MICROBURST PARAMETERS
(WHICH ARE FORECAST IN THE HIGH CATEGORY) VERIFY. VERY STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 SURFACE TEMPS), DRY AIR
ALOFT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS MAY
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS A LITTLE LONGER AS STORMS MOVE
FROM EAST TO WEST.
THE UPPER RIDGE THEN BECOMES MORE OF A "DIRTY RIDGE" AS IT
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK, WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES STAYING IN THE FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON. UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. OTHERWISE, THE DANGEROUS HEAT WILL REMAIN PRESENT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ADVERTISED TO STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY RISING ABOVE 105 ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AT
ALL SITES WITH RIDGING IN PLACE AND ONLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS/
CIRRUS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10KTS WITH MIXING ON SUNDAY.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AUO TAF UNTIL DATA
ISSUES WITH OBSERVATIONS ARE RESOLVED.
08
FIRE WEATHER
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY BETTER DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, OUTSIDE OF LUCKY
AREAS OF RAIN, THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HEAT INDICES APPROACH AND TOP
100 DEGREES. FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 74 93 74 96 / 0 10 0 0
ANNISTON 74 92 73 95 / 0 10 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 76 94 75 96 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 75 94 74 97 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 74 96 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 73 91 74 94 / 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 74 92 74 95 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 73 93 74 95 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...56/GDG
AVIATION...08
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