969
FXUS64 KBMX 110543
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1243 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
OVER THE NEXT 24-HOURS, A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL GET PUSHED INTO
THE REGION, INFLUENCED BY A STOUT TROUGH TO THE NORTH. BY
TOMORROW EVENING, THIS FRONT WILL BECOME MUCH MORE DIFFUSE, AS IT
QUICKLY STARTS TO OUTRUN THE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY
BEING MOSTLY IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY, GIVEN THE BETTER
FORCING TO BE HAD. GIVEN THE AMPLE INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL. PORTIONS OF THE REGION
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FROM THE SPC
FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH,
IT WILL BECOME EVEN MORE DIFFUSE THAN IT ALREADY IS, LIKELY
BECOMING COMPLETELY UNRECOGNIZABLE BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
DURING THIS SAME TIME HOWEVER, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO
DEVELOP ON THE SOUTHERNMOST TIP OF THE TROUGH, QUICKLY BECOMING
CLOSED OFF FROM THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER TO THE SE, STALLING
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THIS LOW WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY, AS IT SLOWLY EBBS AND
FLOWS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS 48-HOUR TIME PERIOD. BY
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER, IT APPEARS AS IF THE CLOSED LOW GETS PUSHED OFF
TO THE WEST, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW GETTING TAKEN OVER BY A
HIGH-PRESSURE BUILDING OFF OF THE EAST COAST. BECAUSE OF THIS
RIDGE, RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL LIKELY RESEMBLE THE
MORE USUAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEN
IN MID-JULY. HOWEVER, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB DURING THIS TIME AS WELL, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID-90S BY NEXT SATURDAY.
/44/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
EXCEPTION IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB AT SHOWING
THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF DIURNAL STORMS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS,
USUALLY UNDERPERFORMING IN REGARDS TO THE EXTENT OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS, COMBINED WITH A LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BRINGING MORE ACTIVITY, HAS LED TO THE DECISION TO
ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND INCLUDE AT LEAST A PROB30 AT EACH
TAF SITE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET, THOUGH WITH THAT LOW MOVING CLOSER, A LINE OF STORMS MAY
MOVE INTO NORTHERN AL DURING THE EARLY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE
LEFT MENTION OF THIS LINE OUT OF KBHM FOR NOW, WITH THE MAIN
TIMING EXPECTED AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
24
FIRE WEATHER
THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 93 72 88 69 / 40 60 90 70
ANNISTON 91 73 88 70 / 40 40 90 70
BIRMINGHAM 94 74 89 72 / 30 40 80 70
TUSCALOOSA 94 75 89 72 / 20 30 80 60
CALERA 96 74 91 71 / 30 20 90 70
AUBURN 92 75 90 72 / 20 10 80 70
MONTGOMERY 95 75 92 72 / 10 10 90 70
TROY 95 75 92 71 / 10 10 80 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...24
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