079
FXUS64 KBMX 201922
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
222 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- FLOODING: A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO A HIGH CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINS FALLING ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-22 CORRIDOR, STRETCHING
EASTWARD TO THE BIRMINGHAM METRO AREA AND THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
- HEAT: HEAT INDEX READINGS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES ARE FORECAST
BEGINNING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
A WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT,
CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN REGION, WILL DRIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY, MAINTAINING A MOIST, SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY DRIVE MULTIPLE IMPULSES ACROSS
THE FRONT, TRIGGERING SEVERAL MCS SYSTEMS IN ADDITION TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHERE THE HIGHEST FLOOD RISK EXISTS DUE TO
TRAINING STORMS. WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS TO
DETERMINE IF EXTENDING THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH OR ISSUING A
NEW ONE FOR SUNDAY IS NECESSARY. PLEASE REMAIN ALERT FOR
POTENTIAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS.
A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF NEXT WEEK,
CHARACTERIZED BY ELONGATED RIDGING OVER MEXICO AND THE FOUR
CORNERS, WHILE A SERIES OF LONGWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE ACROSS THE
UPPER PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. CONSEQUENTLY, HIGHER THAN
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK,
AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND THEN STALLS ONCE AGAIN.
MESOSCALE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN; HOWEVER, WE WILL MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC ORIENTATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WHILE HEAT INDICES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA, THEY WILL APPROACH THE 100-DEGREE MARK ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
AS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS, CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
ONCE AGAIN WITH PREVAILING SHRA WHICH WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY AT
TIMES AS COVERAGE INCREASES. IMPACTS ARE ALREADY BEING FELT AT
BHM AND TCL WITH EET UP NEXT. INTERESTS SHOULD EXPECT FREQUENT
AMENDMENTS AND POTENTIALLY AN ADDITION OF PREVAILING TSRA FOR
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO TSRA WAS ALSO ADDED IN
FOR KAUO AND KMGM FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER IN TERMS OF TIMING AND OVERALL STORM
COVERAGE. FOLLOWING TSRA/SHRA ENDING THIS EVENING, VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS RETURNING
ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER 15Z ON SUNDAY, BUT
MORE THAN LIKELY AFTER 17Z.
NOTE: METARS FROM AUO ARE COMING THROUGH BUT OBSERVATIONS ARE
MISSING DATA. THEREFORE, AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THIS
SET.
16
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AS WE WILL REMAIN IN A WET PATTERN
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP MINRH
VALUES ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 69 88 73 88 / 20 40 30 70
ANNISTON 69 87 72 88 / 20 40 20 60
BIRMINGHAM 71 87 74 89 / 20 50 30 60
TUSCALOOSA 71 86 74 90 / 20 70 30 50
CALERA 70 88 73 91 / 20 60 30 50
AUBURN 70 86 72 88 / 30 50 30 30
MONTGOMERY 71 86 73 90 / 30 80 30 30
TROY 71 86 73 90 / 30 60 20 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHAMBERS-CHILTON-CLAY-
COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-
LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-
RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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