685
FXUS64 KBMX 211817
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
117 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- ACTIVE PATTERN: A WET, UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK, RESULTING IN PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
- HEAT: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING APPROXIMATELY 100 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
OUR WET PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS A BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION HAS SHIFTED NORTH, INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
TRANSPORTING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT APPROACHES THE I-65/I-
459 CORRIDOR, ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE;
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 10 PM.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EVENING, THE NEXT MCS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST.
CURRENT CAMS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI, WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF OUR AREA MAY RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW
TOMORROW MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON AN
UPTICK OF DEVELOPMENT AROUND 1 TO 2 PM IN THE NORTHWEST. SHOULD
THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOP, DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH, THEN THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE WEATHER, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PREDOMINANT CONCERN. GIVEN SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS, EVEN NON-
SEVERE WINDS COULD RESULT IN DOWNED TREES; REMAIN WEATHER AWARE
ON MONDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
ESTABLISH CONTROL TO THE WEST, RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SEVERAL H5 SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS REGIME,
MAINTAINING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH BY
MIDWEEK BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE STATE, MAXIMIZING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SPECIFIC TIMING AND PLACEMENT DETAILS WILL BE REFINED IN FUTURE
FORECASTS. OTHERWISE, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND HEAT INDICES APPROACHING
100 DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE, WITH BRIEF MVFR AT BHM AND
EET FOR THE NEXT HOUR. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH,
IMPACTING MGM AND AUO FIRST, FOLLOWED BY EET, TCL, AND BHM.
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY; TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING. A
REPEAT OF THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS IS EXPECTED, WITH MVFR CEILINGS
LOWERING TO IFR OVERNIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOWEST CEILINGS OCCURRING NEAR DAWN. WE ARE MONITORING AN MCS
SLIDING SOUTH FROM THE NORTH; CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY HIGHEST
THAT IT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z, WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACT TO NORTHERN SITES THEREAFTER.
NOTE: METARS FROM AUO ARE AVAILABLE BUT MISSING DATA; THEREFORE,
AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES.
16
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AS WE WILL REMAIN IN A WET PATTERN
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP MINRH
VALUES ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 73 87 72 85 / 30 80 90 60
ANNISTON 73 88 71 84 / 30 60 80 70
BIRMINGHAM 74 88 72 85 / 30 70 80 70
TUSCALOOSA 74 89 73 86 / 30 60 80 70
CALERA 73 90 72 88 / 30 50 80 70
AUBURN 73 88 73 86 / 30 30 50 70
MONTGOMERY 73 90 74 88 / 20 30 40 60
TROY 73 90 74 89 / 20 20 30 60
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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