489
FXUS64 KBMX 251110
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
610 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- HEAT: MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEK. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 105 DEGREES.
- STORMS: THERE IS LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THE RADAR IS CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME WITH AN
OVERALL MORE QUIET NIGHT EXPERIENCED. OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. IT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THIS
AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN THE UPPER LEVELS,
WE CONTINUE WITH A LOW EASTERN CANADA, TONIGHT OVER QUEBEC AND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS. THROUGH
MIDWEEK, THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN, BUT ANOTHER CENTRAL CANADA LOW
WILL CYCLE THROUGH TO REPLACE IT KEEPING THE OVERALL EAST CONUS
TROUGHING. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE IS ALSO A LARGE RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM ARIZONA TO TEXAS. THIS LEAVES CENTRAL ALABAMA IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER LOW STORM CHANCE
DAY WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST SHOT AT A FEW
STORMS WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY. WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK SHOWS INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTHWARD BEFORE FIZZLING. HOWEVER,
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ASSIST IN ANOTHER FRONT MAKING IT INTO
THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SLIGHTLY HIGHER STORM
CHANCES IN THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES. BY THIS WEEKEND, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
EXPANSION OF OUR SOUTHWEST US RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
US. THIS WILL MEAN A WARMING TREND AND MORE DIURNALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION FOR THE AREA, AND CREEPING UP HEAT INDICES BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
08
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
PATCHY FOG IS CURRENTLY EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH VARIOUS
LEVELS OF REDUCED VIS BEING REPORTED. EXPECT VIS TO REMAIN
REDUCED AT EET, TCL, MGM, AND AUO THROUGH 25/14Z, BEFORE STARTING
TO MIX OUT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THIS TAF PERIOD UNDER A STABLE AIRMASS.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION
OUTAGE.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO VACATE THE AREA WITH LOWER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 35 TO 50% FROM EAST TO WEST
THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT, WHICH SHOULD NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 93 69 93 70 / 0 0 30 30
ANNISTON 92 69 92 71 / 0 0 30 30
BIRMINGHAM 93 73 93 73 / 0 0 30 30
TUSCALOOSA 95 73 95 73 / 0 10 40 40
CALERA 93 72 93 72 / 0 0 30 30
AUBURN 91 72 90 73 / 20 10 40 30
MONTGOMERY 95 72 95 73 / 10 10 40 30
TROY 93 71 93 71 / 40 20 40 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION.../44/
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