315
FXUS64 KBMX 091118
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
618 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK,
REACHING THE LOWER 90S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY TODAY.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TODAY,
AS THE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THE LAST
FEW DAYS STARTS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THIS TROUGH WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED, AS STOUT UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN OVER TEXAS. IN TURN, MOST OF THE
RAIN OPPORTUNITIES FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS WILL BE VERY SCATTERED,
FUELED BY PEAK HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MORE ORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY
SATURDAY, AS ZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST SLOWLY BEGINS TO DROP
INTO TENNESSEE. EMBEDDED IN THIS ZONAL FLOW IS AN ELONGATED COLD
FRONT, WHICH WILL SLOWLY WORK SOUTH WITH THE ZONAL FLOW AND
STALL. FROM HERE, AN ENHANCED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL RIDE THIS
STALLED FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST, ALLOWING FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD AND RAIN
COVERAGE, AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD DROP DOWN A FEW DEGREES, STILL
MOSTLY HANGING IN THE UPPER-80S. UNTIL THEN, LOOK FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE LOW-90S INTO THE WEEKEND.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
PATCHY FOG IS AFFECTING EET AND TCL THIS MORNING, WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH 14Z, ACCOMPANIED BY
OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT EET AS WELL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. TCL
SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED. WENT WITH PROB30 FOR SHRA FOR EET AND BHM
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN/THUNDER ARE AT AUO, WITH A WINDOW OF SHRA FROM 19Z TO 02Z
AND PROB30 FOR TSRA FROM 20Z TO 01Z.
12
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. BECAUSE OF THAT, MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 45% OR HIGHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
AND HIGH MINRH VALUES, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS
TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 89 70 90 71 / 30 10 20 0
ANNISTON 88 70 89 71 / 40 20 20 0
BIRMINGHAM 90 72 91 73 / 20 10 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 91 73 92 74 / 10 10 10 0
CALERA 93 71 93 72 / 10 10 10 0
AUBURN 87 70 91 72 / 50 10 20 0
MONTGOMERY 91 72 91 73 / 20 10 10 0
TROY 90 71 92 72 / 30 10 20 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...12
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