128
FXUS64 KBMX 241827
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
127 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
- HEAVY RAIN: A STALLED COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH GULF MOISTURE
WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- HEAT: INTENSE HEAT RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FROM MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH
HEAT INDICES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
THE STALLED COLD FRONT IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO EBB AND FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE STILL
WORKING INTO THE REGION, HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
48-HOURS AS STORMS SLOWLY MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. GIVEN THE
INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY FOR A HANDFUL OF OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES,
WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEK, AS A STOUT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER-90S BY MONDAY,
LINGERING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME GUIDANCE EVEN HAS
A LARGE SWATH OF TRIPLE-DIGIT AFTERNOON HIGHS ON TUESDAY. GIVEN
RECENT RAINFALL, THESE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY A BIT OVERDONE,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS ALREADY HIGH THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL SURPASS
105 DEGREES. BECAUSE OF THIS, HEAT HEADLINES ALREADY APPEAR
LIKELY COME THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA,
THOUGH CLEARING IS NOTED AT TCL AND EET. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT BHM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH LOWER COVERAGE AT EET AND TCL. TAFS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO
INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT BHM, WITH VCSH FOR EET AND TCL.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT AUO BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z,
FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH 02Z. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER MGM BY 20Z, CONTINUING THROUGH 01Z-02Z. GIVEN
THE STALLED COLD FRONT, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST
TERMINALS, WITH PROB30 ADDED AFTER 15Z.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
SUPPORTED BY A WARM, HUMID AIR MASS AND PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES.
MINRH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH
MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 72 87 72 90 / 40 70 60 50
ANNISTON 72 86 72 88 / 40 70 60 60
BIRMINGHAM 73 88 74 90 / 30 70 50 50
TUSCALOOSA 74 91 74 92 / 20 50 40 30
CALERA 73 92 73 93 / 20 60 50 50
AUBURN 74 88 74 89 / 30 60 40 60
MONTGOMERY 74 92 75 93 / 20 50 30 40
TROY 73 91 73 92 / 20 50 30 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-JEFFERSON-ST. CLAIR-
WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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