608
FXUS64 KBMX 261654
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1154 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING OR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
A PERSISTENT RAINY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG CUT-OFF
UPPER LOW LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN EFFECTIVELY
BLOCKS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO STATUS QUO FOR OUR AREA WITH TROUGHING JUST TO OUR WEST AND
RIDGING TO OUR EAST PULLING IN AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF. PREDICTABILITY IS LOW ON THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DUE TO THE WEAK SURFACE FORCING; HOWEVER,
OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MEAN THAT GENERALLY
OVER 60-70% OF LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN EACH DAY WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE, FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT IN AREAS THAT SEE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY.
AS WE SEE SEVERAL DAYS OF RAINFALL OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS,
THERE'S INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS AS THE
SOILS BECOME SATURATED, AND THEREFORE WE COULD SEE QUICKER RISES
ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS.
25/OWEN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WITH THE BLOCKING PATTERN TO OUR WEST, CENTRAL AL WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD TROUGHING TO THE WEST, WHICH IS
PULLING IN DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND PROVIDING FOR AT LEAST
MODEST LIFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITH RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BRIEF POCKETS OF VFR AS WE GET
SOME DAYTIME MIXING AT PLAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO IMPACT MOST TERMINALS AT SOME
POINT THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH THERE'S LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
TIMING FOR EACH SITE. TONIGHT, EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN OF MVFR
TO IFR CIGS DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IN CENTRAL AL. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG EACH MORNING. THEREFORE, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 81 66 84 65 / 80 40 50 50
ANNISTON 80 67 84 67 / 80 30 60 40
BIRMINGHAM 81 68 84 68 / 70 40 50 50
TUSCALOOSA 82 69 85 69 / 60 30 60 40
CALERA 82 68 86 67 / 80 30 50 40
AUBURN 79 68 83 68 / 90 40 50 20
MONTGOMERY 80 68 84 68 / 70 30 60 20
TROY 80 68 84 67 / 80 30 70 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-
RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER.
DISCUSSION...25/OWEN
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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