928
FXUS64 KBMX 121115
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
615 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- HEAT: DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-TO-MID 90S COMBINED
WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO MODERATE-TO-MAJOR HEAT RISKS
(HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105 F) THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- PATTERN SHIFT: AN ACTIVE, WET PATTERN ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY AS A
STALLING FRONT AND SHORTWAVES INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES (40
TO 80 PERCENT).
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE, CURRENTLY IN CONTROL, WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN
TO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS WHILE SENDING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
IN ADDITION, A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD, EVENTUALLY STALLING
ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND LIFT FROM THE PASSING
SHORTWAVES WILL WARRANT MEDIUM TO HIGH (40 TO 80%) CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES AS A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.
OUR ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE SENDING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF ENERGY INTO THE REGION. THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STALLED
BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK
TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS IS THE INCREASING HEAT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONSISTENTLY REACH THE LOW-TO-MID 90S, WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING HIGH HUMIDITY.
CONSEQUENTLY, HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 100 F AND 105 F
DAILY, CREATING MODERATE-TO-MAJOR HEAT RISKS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY THE WEEKEND,
PARTICULARLY FOR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS WITHOUT ACCESS TO
ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION.
16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES OFF TO THE
NORTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT, BUT SHOULD JUST BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE.
PROB30 HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR TSRA FOR BHM, EET, AND TCL FROM 20Z
TO 01Z THIS EVENING, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
12
FIRE WEATHER
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.
CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP
MINRH VALUES ABOVE 40% THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, SO CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LIMITED FIRE SPREAD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 92 73 90 73 / 30 30 40 40
ANNISTON 91 73 90 73 / 20 20 40 30
BIRMINGHAM 93 74 92 74 / 20 30 50 40
TUSCALOOSA 93 75 93 76 / 20 20 50 30
CALERA 95 74 95 75 / 10 20 50 30
AUBURN 94 75 94 75 / 10 10 40 20
MONTGOMERY 94 76 94 76 / 10 10 40 20
TROY 95 75 95 75 / 10 10 40 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...12
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page