074
FXUS64 KBMX 041037
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
537 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- RAIN: SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH TO 2
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS GENERALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 85.
- SEASONABLE WEATHER: SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEGIN ON TUESDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
OVER THE LAST 24-HOURS, THERE HAS BEEN AN UNFORTUNATE AND
SUBSTANTIAL SHIFT IN THE FORECAST, RESULTING IN A DRAMATIC
DECREASE IN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. PREVIOUSLY,
THE DISTURBANCE MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF WAS EXPECTED TO
BRIEFLY MOVE ALONG THE MS/AL STATE LINE, BEFORE TAKING A HARD
PIVOT EAST. IT WAS THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTH MOVEMENT THAT WAS
GOING TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INTERACTION ALONG THE FRONT,
RESULTING IN THE WIDESPREAD 2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL. NOW, THIS
DISTURBANCE IS FAVORING A DIRECT E/NE MOVEMENT, MOVING ALONG THE
FL COASTLINE BEFORE WORKING INLAND ONCE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED
THROUGH MOST OF THE STATE. BECAUSE OF THIS, THE MAIN AXIS FOR
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH, SINCE THE BULK
OF THE TROPICAL INFLUENCE WILL STAY SOUTH AS WELL. AT THIS TIME,
THE MAIN CORRIDOR FOR 2+ INCHES OF RAIN REMAINS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-85. EVEN THIS IS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE, AND RAINFALL TOTALS MAY CREEP DOWN HERE AS WELL.
NORTH OF I-85, THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL TODAY WILL FALL ALONG, OR
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED
TO AMOUNT TO NEAR AN INCH OR LESS.
ANOTHER SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE FORECAST ARE TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT
WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST HAS ALSO TAKEN A MORE
EASTWARD TRACK, MEANING THAT THE TROUGH WON'T DIG AS FAR SOUTH AS
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY RETROGRADE NORTH,
ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO STABILIZE IN THE UPPER-70S EAST, TO
UPPER-80S WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE OTHER HAND ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO A MORE SEASONAL FEEL, AS COOLER AIR FILTERS
DOWN THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE
50S.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
MOST SITES ARE STILL VFR, EXCEPT FOR AUO WHERE LIFR STRATUS HAS
ALREADY ARRIVED. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
TO MVFR AND THEN IFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE DELAY IS PARTLY
DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ONSET OF THE SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTH. SHRAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD TODAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT.
TS PROBABILITY IS LOW AND WILL LEAVE OUT A MENTION ATTM. A FEW
SITES MAY IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR (OR POSSIBLY VFR BRIEFLY) DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD GO BACK DOWN TO IFR AFTER SUNSET. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
08
FIRE WEATHER
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
BROADLY, THE AREA WILL SEE AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL, THERE IS ROUGHLY A 70% CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST 1 INCH
OF RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA, WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR
HIGHER TOTALS. DRIER AND COOLER AIR RETURNS ON TUESDAY AND
PERSISTS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 79 63 84 56 / 80 40 10 0
ANNISTON 78 65 83 59 / 90 50 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 79 65 84 59 / 80 40 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 82 66 88 60 / 80 40 10 0
CALERA 79 67 84 62 / 90 50 10 0
AUBURN 76 67 79 65 / 90 80 20 10
MONTGOMERY 78 67 82 65 / 90 80 20 10
TROY 77 66 80 64 / 90 80 30 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...08
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