662
FXUS64 KBMX 140015
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
715 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR
RECORD LEVELS THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AND WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COOL DOWN REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.
- DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL SWING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY. ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WILL MIGRATE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK, EXPENDING FROM ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALABAMA EASTWARD TO OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A
COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK WILL NEAR THE ESTABLISHED
RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF
THIS DISCUSSION. THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE GREAT BETWEEN
THE COOL OVERNIGHTS AND THE VERY WARM AFTERNOONS THANKS TO LOWER
HUMIDITY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MOSTLY DRY
FASHION DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE SUPPORT ALOFT BEING LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG AND EXPANSIVE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO MUCH OF THE PLAINS, DEEP
SOUTH, MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
A STRONG COOL AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
05
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL GENERALLY LEAD
TO VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WE'VE SEEN
THE PAST 24 HOURS. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED RIVER FOG AT TCL AND MGM, WHICH
SHOULD MIX OUT AS WINDS INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING. I HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS OF LOWER VIS DUE TO FOG.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. MINRHS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30-40% RANGE. A
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE WEST WILL SEE A LOW CHANCE OF DROPPING BELOW
30% FOR A FEW HOURS OVER THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS IF EFFICIENT
MIXING CAN OCCUR. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
TUE OCT. 13:
KBHM: 89/1953
KEET: 89/2017
KANB: 90/1954
KTCL: 90/1963
WED OCT. 14:
KBHM: 89/1984
KEET: 89/2016
KANB: 88/1975
KTCL: 90/1962
KMGM: 91/1883
THU OCT. 15:
KBHM: 90/1897
KEET: 92/2025
KANB: 87/1975
KTCL: 91/1962
KMGM: 92/1881
FRI OCT. 16:
KBHM: 90/1897
KEET: 90/2025
KANB: 87/1965
KTCL: 90/1962
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 57 88 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 60 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 63 90 63 89 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 60 92 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 60 90 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 61 88 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 59 89 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 59 89 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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