534
FXUS64 KBMX 271902
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
202 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
- PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
OR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
A SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND,
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TOMORROW, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TO OUR WEST, ALLOWING FOR FLOW ALOFT TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST, AND
THE ONE TO OUR NE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO
MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND, A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL START TO
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER NEW ENGLAND, SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS THE EAST COAST. DROPPING SOUTH WITH THIS LONGWAVE
WILL BE AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT, WITH THE CURRENT EXPECTATION
BEING THAT IT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA COME TUESDAY. THE MAIN
THING TO WATCH HERE IS LOW PRESSURE INTERACTION, AND IF ANY KIND
OF FUJIWHARA EFFECT TAKES PLACE. THE GFS IS VERY BULLISH ON THE
NOTION OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACTION,
RESULTING IN THE TROUGH GETTING STRETCHED FARTHER SOUTH. IN TURN,
THIS WOULD PUSH THE COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THAT WOULD
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, AS WELL AS AN EVEN
GREATER DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. WITH THAT BEING SAID, RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO LINGER TO START THE NEW WORKWEEK BEHIND THE
FRONT, MOSTLY DRIVEN BY SEABREEZE AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHILE LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
ONGOING, AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION. ALL TERMINALS ARE
CARRYING PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA, WITH QUICK DROPS IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. THE RAIN SHOULD
DIMINISH PAST 08/00Z, WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPANDING ACROSS
THE REGION BY 08/08Z. HERE, IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH 08/16Z.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS PATTERN WILL
LEAD TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS OR FOG EACH MORNING. THEREFORE, THERE ARE NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 66 84 65 80 / 20 50 30 80
ANNISTON 67 84 66 80 / 30 50 30 90
BIRMINGHAM 68 85 67 81 / 30 40 40 80
TUSCALOOSA 69 85 69 82 / 20 50 40 70
CALERA 67 86 67 83 / 20 40 40 80
AUBURN 68 84 68 81 / 30 40 20 80
MONTGOMERY 68 84 68 82 / 20 30 20 80
TROY 67 84 67 83 / 30 40 20 80
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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