336
FXUS64 KBMX 241114
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
614 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
WHILE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON FRI, MUCH OF THE DAY
WILL BE RAIN-FREE EXCEPT FOR A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW STRAGGLERS
WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN EXPECTED CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO CREEP BACK UPWARD WITH OVERALL MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
THE UPPER LOW OVER SK IN CANADA LINGERING LONGER OVER THIS AREA
THROUGH SAT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EWD INTO MB CANADA ON SUN INTO
MON. AS IT DOES SO, SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
MAIN LOW WITH LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES OF IMPACTS AFFECTING THE
DEEP SOUTH. C AL WILL TRANSITION INTO A WETTER PATTERN STARTING
LATE FRI. STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO OUR W ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS
RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO AL SLIGHTLY LATER, NOW
DURING THE EVENING, AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE
BETTER ENERGY AND INSTABILITY FRI IS EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR W,
THERE REMAINS A LOW (1 OUT OF 5) CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
COULD STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES INTO WRN AL
FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. THE
TREND DOES INDICATE A HIGHER PROBABILITY THAT DETERIORATION OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL WIN OUT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO SAT AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WHILE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO GET THE FRONT THROUGH C AL
SAT NIGHT, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE SRN PART OF
THE STATE ON SUN AND QUICKLY MOVE BACK NWD. THE UPPER LEVELS DO
NOT HAVE A STRONG NW FLOW TO SUPPORT THE SURFACE FRONT.
BY MON, THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE NEWD TOWARD THE
UPPER MIDWEST US AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE. THIS WILL
DRAG THE FRONT BACK TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH ON TUE. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (2 OUT OF 5) CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FOR MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE BETTER ENERGY
WITH THIS NEXT WAVE CONTINUES TO TREND ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY, BUT C AL WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE IMPACTS WITH A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.
CHANCES ARE DECREASING THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT BACK THROUGH
THE AREA WITH UPPER ZONAL FLOW LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. CHANCES ARE INCREASING
FOR A WETTER AND MESSY PATTERN TO BE IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK THANKS TO STALLED BOUNDARIES AND PERIODIC SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY.
08
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MGM AND ASN, WHERE VIS AND/OR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME
MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL WORK IN
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH WINDS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING AFTER 1Z, WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA INTRODUCED AT TCL AND PROB30 FOR SHRA AT BHM, EET, ASN, AND
MGM. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL AT THESE TERMINALS, WITH LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN BEFORE 6Z AT AUO.
KTCL TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO IT DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
NOTE: SPRING SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE TAF FOR KASN IS NOW BEING ISSUED
AND WILL RUN THROUGH 04/29 18Z.
12
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY FOR ONE MORE DAY ON
FRIDAY FOR SOME AS WE NEAR CRITICAL RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW CRITICAL SPEEDS, BUT ELEVATED
FIRE CONCERNS ARE STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE DRY FUELS AND LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES. THERE WILL BE A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 84 58 78 55 / 10 70 90 30
ANNISTON 84 60 79 57 / 10 60 90 40
BIRMINGHAM 84 62 79 60 / 10 70 90 40
TUSCALOOSA 84 62 80 61 / 20 80 90 30
CALERA 85 61 81 59 / 10 60 90 40
AUBURN 84 62 79 62 / 0 30 80 60
MONTGOMERY 86 62 82 62 / 10 40 80 50
TROY 85 60 83 61 / 10 20 80 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...12
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