505
FXUS64 KBMX 080532
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1232 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- HEAT: HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 97-104 DEGREE
RANGE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A MODERATE HEAT
RISK ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THIS EVENING, CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS IN A SOMEWHAT WEAK UPPER
FLOW AREA SOUTH OF THE MAIN BROAD TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA AND DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME TIME,
ALABAMA IS SITUATED BETWEEN TWO RIDGES, ONE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AND THE OTHER IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF OF THE FL COAST.
THE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A
SMALL DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE, IT SHOULD ORIENT OUR HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH AREAS FOR SAT/SUN. OUR
EMPHASIS WILL STILL BE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY ENHANCED
CONVECTION OVERALL. BY MONDAY, THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
FLATTENS AND RETROGRADES FURTHER WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. AT THE SAME TIME, IT ALSO SHOWS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH JUST CONTINUED
SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY ENHANCED ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, READINGS VARY ONLY A DEGREE OR SO HERE AND
THERE OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINING UP. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER IN SPOTS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP US
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW.
08
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED AT ALL SITES. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN A FEW SPOTS, BUT I HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR EET TOWARD SUNRISE AT THIS TIME. WITH WEAK
RIDGING TO OUR EAST, WINDS WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST 4-7 KNOTS
AROUND IT WITH MIXING DURING THE DAY. MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, SO I HAVE CONTINUED WITH PROB30 AT
TCL, BHM, AND EET TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HELP KEEP MINRH VALUES GENERALLY
ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY. BECAUSE OF THIS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 91 71 92 73 / 40 20 50 30
ANNISTON 91 71 91 73 / 30 20 40 20
BIRMINGHAM 91 73 91 74 / 30 20 50 20
TUSCALOOSA 92 73 92 74 / 40 20 50 20
CALERA 92 73 92 73 / 30 20 40 10
AUBURN 89 73 88 74 / 30 20 40 10
MONTGOMERY 93 74 93 74 / 30 20 40 10
TROY 93 73 92 72 / 20 20 50 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...16
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