181
FXUS64 KBMX 171708
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1208 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIMITED RAIN, GENERALLY LESS THAN A
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH, SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, PROVIDING MINIMAL RELIEF FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
- CRITICALLY DRY FUELS, STRONG WINDS, AND LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ELEVATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
A POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF MINNESOTA
THIS AFTERNOON, WELL NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO BY TOMORROW MORNING. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FAR SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS,
PUSHING EASTWARD FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. FOR
CENTRAL ALABAMA, THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE AMONG THE WARMEST
OF THE YEAR SO FAR, UPPER 80S AND PUSHING 90 IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
CLOUD COVER BUILDING IN BY TOMORROW MORNING WILL HOLD TOMORROW'S
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES ALABAMA FROM THE
WEST, RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT,
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY EXISTS TO FOSTER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
LINE AS IT PASSES THROUGH WESTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA. CAMS FROM 12Z
THIS MORNING INDICATE THIS LINE MAY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALABAMA REGION. DEPENDING ON THE
UPSTREAM EVOLUTION IN MISSISSIPPI, THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR THE
OUTFLOW TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AS IT PUSHES AHEAD OF
THE RAIN/STORMS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR. RAIN LOOKS TO
BEGIN AROUND 6 OR 7 PM SATURDAY ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN AREAS,
INCLUDING TUSCALOOSA, BEFORE SLIDING EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY LOSING
STEAM DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF NORTHWEST CENTRAL ALABAMA MAY
SEE AS MUCH AS 0.75-1" OF RAINFALL, WHILE THE MORE DROUGHT-STRICKEN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SEE 0.25" OR LESS.
SUNDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE REGION, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY MONDAY,
HOWEVER, AGAIN BRINGING INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MINIMUM RH WILL SETTLE
INTO THE MID TO LOW 20S EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO STAY BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
12
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH SCATTERED
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE BY TOMORROW MORNING IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. LOW PROBABILITY FOR FOG EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AT
MGM, BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
12
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY, WITH
FUELS REMAINING CRITICALLY DRY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY, BUT IT WON'T BE THE DROUGHT BUSTING RAIN THAT
WE DESPERATELY NEED. WINDS WILL BE STRONG OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL,
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, BEFORE DECREASING INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW MINRH VALUES IN THE MID TO LOW 20S ARE
FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 17:
KBHM: 90/1955
KEET: 86/2013
KTCL: 92/1955
KMGM: 90/1955
APRIL 18:
KBHM: 91/2006
KEET: 90/2006
KANB: 90/1955
KMGM: 91/2006
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 58 86 45 68 / 0 50 90 10
ANNISTON 60 85 49 68 / 0 30 90 20
BIRMINGHAM 63 86 49 68 / 0 50 90 10
TUSCALOOSA 60 85 49 71 / 0 50 90 10
CALERA 60 86 49 70 / 0 30 90 20
AUBURN 62 85 54 68 / 0 10 70 20
MONTGOMERY 60 87 53 71 / 0 10 80 20
TROY 58 86 54 70 / 0 0 40 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...12
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