472
FXUS64 KBMX 081114
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
514 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 509 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVELS 1/2 OUT OF 5) FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
- FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM,
AS WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. LARGER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTIVE BANDING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT, RETURNING TO
BELOW AVERAGE TO START THE NEW WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
LATEST COMPUTER MODEL RUNS KEEP THE UPCOMING ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD
INTACT FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. AFTER DEALING WITH SOME MORE FOG AND
LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING, THERE SHOULD BE A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON. THAT AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S IN MANY/MOST AREAS ONCE AGAIN.
THE BIG CHANGES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO COMMENCE TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHWEST PART OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, ALONG
WITH LIFT PROVIDED BY ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY,
WILL START TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. TRAINING OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD LEAD TO SOME SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS, WITH
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS PERHAPS PUSHING THE 4 INCH MARK IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF THESE QPF TOTALS CONTINUE TO CLIMB.
AS FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK, NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE SINCE
YESTERDAY. THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY SEEMS TO STAY TO ALABAMA'S
WEST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE A SITUATION
WHERE "PEAK HEATING" IS NOT REALLY A FACTOR IN HOW UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ARE AFTER DARK. IN FACT, BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
DEPICT AN AREA OF HIGHER CAPE TRAVERSING CENTRAL ALABAMA AFTER
DARK, INCLUDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCING THE SHEAR COMPONENT OF THE EQUATION,
MAY LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS. HIGHEST THREAT (SLIGHT RISK) IS
IN THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL DECREASE WITH TIME AS THE LOW LEVEL JET EXITS THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BUT THERE IS STILL AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
THAT JUSTIFIES CONTINUING A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NOON ON SATURDAY.
COLD AIR SPILLS BACK INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT DEPARTS TO OUR WEST. DRY CONDITIONS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
/61/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING AS A
MIXTURE OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG INFLUENCE ALL
TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY 14-15Z WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING BY MID DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP
TONIGHT AT BHM/EET/TCL AS A COLD FRONT NEARS. GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
WILL BE LIKELY AT TIMES. A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL TRACK NEAR OUR
NORTHERN TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF WINDOW.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO START PUSHING INTO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR, WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS, WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED EARLY TO MIDDLE
NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 71 58 70 60 / 10 30 80 90
ANNISTON 71 59 71 61 / 10 20 70 90
BIRMINGHAM 70 61 68 63 / 10 40 80 90
TUSCALOOSA 73 61 71 62 / 10 50 90 90
CALERA 72 59 72 61 / 10 30 70 90
AUBURN 71 58 74 63 / 10 10 30 50
MONTGOMERY 74 61 78 66 / 10 10 40 60
TROY 74 58 78 65 / 10 0 20 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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