310
FXUS64 KBMX 221853
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
153 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
- HEAVY RAIN: GIVEN A STALLED COLD FRONT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE GULF, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
SUNDAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY.
- HEAT: A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS GENERALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 103 AND 106 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, A STEADY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE FLOWING INTO THE REGION, REMAINING INFLUENCED BY TS
BERTHA. DURING THIS SAME TIMEFRAME, THE COLD FRONT THAT WE'VE
BEEN MENTIONING THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY COME TO A HALT,
GETTING REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING ALOFT. THIS STALLED FRONT,
PAIRED WITH THE STEADY FLOW OF MOISTURE, WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
CONTINUOUS ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE TO OUR
NORTH, THERE IS AT LEAST MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THESE HEAVY BANDS
SHIFTING SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE HIGH
RAINFALL RATES, AND SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE STORMS, WE HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH, VALID UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY.
THIS FLOOD WATCH MAY GET EXPANDED IN SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS, BUT THE
OVERALL SCOPE OF THIS EVENT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD
FRONT ENDS UP STALLING.
THANKFULLY, TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO COOL DOWN PAST TODAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS FALLING INTO THE UPPER-80S AND LOW-90S GIVEN THE
COLD FRONT AND INCREASED RAINFALL. THIS IS WHERE AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE CLIMBING ONCE
MORE BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HERE, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO
OUR WEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST, RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF MID
TO HIGH-90S. CONFIDENCE IS ALREADY HIGH THAT GIVEN THIS SCENARIO,
WE'LL NEED SOME TYPE OF HEAT HEADLINES TO START THE NEW WORKWEEK.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AT ALL
TERMINALS. HOWEVER, I HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA AT
MGM AND AUO DUE TO THE OUTER BANDS OF TS BERTHA. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH PAST 23/00Z, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR
CIGS RETURNING PAST 23/09Z AREA-WIDE.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, RAIN WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH MINRH
VALUES STAYING ABOVE 50 PERCENT. GIVEN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS, AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 74 89 72 88 / 30 80 70 90
ANNISTON 74 90 73 87 / 20 50 70 80
BIRMINGHAM 76 91 75 89 / 20 60 70 80
TUSCALOOSA 76 91 75 90 / 10 40 60 50
CALERA 74 94 74 91 / 10 40 50 70
AUBURN 74 90 75 90 / 20 10 10 40
MONTGOMERY 75 94 75 93 / 10 20 10 30
TROY 73 93 73 93 / 0 10 10 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-CHILTON-DALLAS-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LOWNDES-MARENGO-PERRY-PICKENS-SHELBY-SUMTER-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT-CHEROKEE-ETOWAH.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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