936
FXUS64 KBMX 030549
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1249 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- HEAT: HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S COMBINED WITH
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES
THROUGH SATURDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM
SATURDAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS: NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ARE UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
CONVECTION IS ALMOST GONE FOR THE EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW
DETERIORATING CELLS LEFT ON RADAR. AGAIN, MORE CONVECTION WILL BE
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS EITHER EASTERN CONUS OR THE SOUTHEAST US THROUGH THE NEXT
7 DAYS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A LARGE EASTERN CONUS RIDGE IS IN
PLACE, CENTERED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO VIRGINIA. THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM, THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY TOWARD
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. BY SATURDAY, THIS RIDGE SHOULD
TRANSITION TO A WEAKER AND FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US.
LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION AS
DISTURBANCES PROPAGATE AROUND THIS RIDGE WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY FOR THE 4TH. SOME STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SIMILAR SETUP TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT AND LONGEVITY OF THE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE PAST
SUNSET ASSISTED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS, AND WE
WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW AT LEAST THROUGH THE
4TH.
BY SUNDAY, SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES MAY HELP US BE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES LOWER AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO ESCAPE THE HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THEN. THIS WILL BE DUE IN PART BY GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A BREAK
DOWN IN THE UPPER RIDGE AS A LOW DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE ON SUNDAY FOR MORE
COVERAGE WITH THE BEST CHANCES STILL IN THE AFTERNOON. MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS
EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK, THIS LOW
SHOULD MOVE OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BUT LEAVE BROAD
TROUGHING STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN CONUS AND CONTINUED
DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE MID SECTION OF EASTERN CONUS, BUT STAYS
WELL TO OUR NORTH AS IT STALLS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE OUR CONVECTION CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS AS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OF IT.
08
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THE NIGHT. PATCHY
MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN AT EET, TCL, AND MGM.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING EASTERLY AT 3-8 KTS DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING, WITH CONVECTION TIMING FROM 19Z THROUGH 02Z FOR THE
NORTH; A PROB30 HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR BHM, EET, AND TCL.
16
FIRE WEATHER
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAIN LOW, AS WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, AND HUMIDITY LEVELS STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 95 74 95 74 / 40 40 30 10
ANNISTON 94 74 94 74 / 30 40 30 10
BIRMINGHAM 95 76 95 75 / 40 40 30 10
TUSCALOOSA 94 76 94 75 / 20 30 30 10
CALERA 97 75 97 75 / 20 20 30 10
AUBURN 93 76 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
MONTGOMERY 95 76 95 75 / 20 20 20 10
TROY 95 74 95 74 / 20 10 20 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-COOSA-
DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LOWNDES-
MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR-BULLOCK-CHAMBERS-CLAY-CLEBURNE-LEE-MACON-PIKE-
RANDOLPH-RUSSELL.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...16
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page