409
FXUS64 KBMX 161058
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
558 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
- HEAT: MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH HEAT
INDICES REACHING 105 TO NEAR 110 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT.
- THUNDERSTORMS: AFTER A BREAK TODAY, A SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
PATTERN RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH 20-40% RAIN
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL INTO HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO START TO DECREASE BY
TODAY, AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR MORE CONVERGENCE ALOFT UP NORTH, KEEPING THE ISOLATED RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS GIVEN THE INCREDIBLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE WEST EVEN
MORE, ALLOWING FOR THE REGION TO SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST, AND A TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
GUIDANCE IS ALREADY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WORKING INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME, WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS
DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BY FRIDAY. WHILE THIS WON'T BE A WHOLESALE
SWING, ANY RELIEF WILL BE WELCOMED GIVEN THIS EXTENDED PATTERN
WE'VE BEEN STUCK IN.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED (>95% CHANCE) THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE VERY LOW TODAY (10% OR LESS) DUE TO
RIDGING AND DRY AIR.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
AS RIDGING BUILDS THIS WEEKEND, CONDITIONS WILL TURN DRIER, WITH
MINRH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, BUT MAY BEGIN TO
INCREASE IF RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS PERSIST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 99 77 100 75 / 0 0 30 20
ANNISTON 97 75 97 74 / 0 0 20 20
BIRMINGHAM 98 78 98 76 / 0 0 30 20
TUSCALOOSA 100 78 100 76 / 0 0 30 20
CALERA 98 77 99 76 / 0 0 40 20
AUBURN 93 76 95 77 / 10 0 20 20
MONTGOMERY 99 77 100 76 / 10 0 30 20
TROY 97 76 98 75 / 20 10 30 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-
HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page