148
FXUS64 KBMX 051209
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
709 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
UPDATE
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
SHORT TERM
/UPDATED AT 353 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2022/
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE PATTERN FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE SIMILAR WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL S TO SW FLOW. (I AM BEGINNING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THIS PATTERN.) THE TREND IS A TAD
WARMER/MORE HUMID EACH DAY. THERE IS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE
GULF COAST TO OUR S CONNECTED TO THE BIGGER ATLANTIC RIDGE. TO THE
N, THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED NE AND NOW STRETCHES FROM MN
SEWD TO THE CAROLINAS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH AWAY TO THE
NE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A LOW MOVES FROM THE MN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WE KEEP RIDGING AS WELL. THIS RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM TX TO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MINOR PERTURBATIONS
THROUGH THIS UPPER FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS C
AL. AFTER ANOTHER MORNING OF SCATTERED LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG,
LOOK FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH CONTINUED UNORGANIZED, MAINLY DIURNAL,
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING THE HEAT OF THE
DAY. PWS REMAIN ELEVATED (ABOVE 2IN), SO WE CONTINUE TO HAVE PLENTY
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OVERALL LOW LEVELS MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY INCH UPWARD NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR THE FAR W
COUNTIES. BASED ON THE LATEST NUMBERS (BLEND OF NBM AND CONSSHORT),
I WILL EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO ALL BUT 4 COUNTIES IN THE E CENTRAL
PART OF AL (HIGHER TERRAIN/LOWER TEMPS, ETC...) WILL HAVE ALL IN
BUT...CLAY, CLEBURNE, RANDOLPH, AND CHAMBERS. WILL ALSO EXPAND THE
ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, TOMORROW WE
WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDING ANOTHER DAY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER FOR NOW,
WE WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY AT 2 DAYS AT AT TIME. HOWEVER, WE ARE
MENTIONING HEAT IN THE HWO THROUGH SUNDAY.
08
LONG TERM
/UPDATED AT 353 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2022/
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
595 DECAMETER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
SHOULD HAVE A SUPPRESSIVE EFFECT ON CONVECTION, BUT WITH PWATS STILL
LINGERING AROUND 2 INCHES AND STRONG HEATING, STILL EXPECT SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS. RELATIVELY HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES CLOSER TO SOME RIDGE-RIDING WAVES, BUT CURRENTLY EXPECT THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY/ANY MCSS TO REMAIN OVER GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS. WITH THE RIDGE, WEST WINDS, AND LESS CONVECTION, HAVE
GONE WITH THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGHS EVEN BLENDING IN SOME OF
THE 90TH PERCENTILE AT TIMES WHICH SEEMS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
OBSERVATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS AND WITH PREVIOUS HEAT WAVES THIS SUMMER. THIS PUTS HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 90S IN MANY AREAS, AND WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE AREAS
LIKE TUSCALOOSA AND MONTGOMERY HIT 100F AGAIN. DEW POINTS SHOULD MIX
DOWN INTO THE 72-73F RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN
THE 105F TO 109F RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE
EXCEPT SOME OF THE FAR EAST-CENTRAL HIGHER ELEVATION COUNTIES.
NEAR-RECORD "WARM LOW" TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WILL PROVIDE
LITTLE RELIEF AT NIGHT. EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY IS LIKELY
IN LATER UPDATES.
BY SATURDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE
RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS PUTS CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVELY GENERATED
SHORTWAVES. THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT WON'T REALLY MAKE IT THIS FAR
SOUTH BUT THE MID-LEVEL FRONT WILL. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 2 TO 2.25 INCHES WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND FAIRLY SATURATED PROFILES ARE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY, BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY STORM
CLUSTERS/MCSS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM GIVEN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND A
LITTLE BIT OF FLOW ALOFT. TIMING OF CONVECTION AND ANY OUTFLOWS
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH WILL MAKE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TRICKY, BUT HOT TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION AND POTENTIALLY
HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105F
ANYWHERE THAT CAN REMAIN CONVECTION/OUTFLOW FREE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
ADVISORY-LEVEL HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY SUNDAY. DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR MONDAY, WITH A TEMPORARY RESPITE FROM
THE WORST OF THE HEAT INDICES.
32/DAVIS
AVIATION
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WE HAVE A FEW
SPOTS WITH IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD GO VFR
IN A FEW OF HOURS. OTHERWISE, MORE MAINLY AFTERNOON TSRA IS EXPECTED
WITH HEATING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT THE SRN TAF SITES (MGM/TOI).
08
FIRE WEATHER
THE MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RH VALUES
REMAIN IN THE 45 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. 20 FT WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT, LESS THAN 10 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 94 73 94 73 96 / 30 20 40 20 30
ANNISTON 93 74 94 75 95 / 40 20 40 20 30
BIRMINGHAM 94 75 94 76 97 / 40 20 40 20 30
TUSCALOOSA 95 74 96 75 98 / 50 20 40 10 20
CALERA 93 75 94 75 94 / 50 20 40 10 30
AUBURN 92 74 94 75 94 / 60 30 30 10 30
MONTGOMERY 96 75 97 76 99 / 60 30 40 10 20
TROY 94 74 94 74 96 / 70 30 40 10 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BLOUNT...
BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...CHILTON...COOSA...DALLAS...
ELMORE...ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...JEFFERSON...LAMAR...
LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...MARENGO...MARION...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...
PICKENS...PIKE...RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...
TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.
08/32
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