457
FXUS64 KBMX 282301
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
601 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
- HEAT: A MAJOR HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA, WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES FROM 105 TO 109 DEGREES.
- SEVERE WEATHER: THERE IS A 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS TUESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BIG HEAT DOME, THROUGH MOST OF THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW REGIME COULD
HELP KICK OFF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS
TIME. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVING BACK TO THE WEST,
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD MODERATE SOME BACK
DOWN TO MORE "TYPICAL" SUMMERTIME LEVELS. WHILE THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN OUR CWA MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, I
DON'T THINK THE CONFIDENCE CRITERIA EXCEEDANCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
AS WE TRANSITION TO THE WEEKEND, THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES FROM THE NORTH. THIS TROUGH WILL FURTHER
"COOL" TEMPERATURES, AND BRING AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BEYOND THE WEEKEND, IT
LOOKS LIKE THAT UPPER LOW JUST HANGS AROUND INTO AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK, KEEPING TEMPERATURES MANAGEABLE AND KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES A BIT ELEVATED.
/61/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE. LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, GENERALLY FROM 8-10 KNOTS. WITH THAT SAID, WINDS AT
AUO WILL BE A BIT STRONGER WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF WINDOW. AS A
RESULT, A PROB30 GROUP WAS INTRODUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
ACTIVITY.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL HELP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN
CHECK FOR THE WEEK. MINRH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
50 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN
FROM THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH RHS DROPPING TO AROUND
40%. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NEGATE ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 76 92 68 90 / 10 10 0 0
ANNISTON 76 91 69 88 / 10 20 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 78 93 72 91 / 10 20 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 78 94 73 93 / 0 30 30 10
CALERA 78 96 72 94 / 0 30 20 0
AUBURN 78 93 73 91 / 0 30 10 0
MONTGOMERY 78 97 74 93 / 0 40 40 10
TROY 77 96 73 93 / 0 40 40 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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