141
FXUS64 KBMX 190356
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1056 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- SEASONABLE WEATHER: SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
DRY NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK,
BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TROUGHING ALONG THE
EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
MAINTAINS A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS, WHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL
ONLY MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
TRAJECTORIES AT THE SURFACE RESULT IN COOL NIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXITS,
WHILE A CUTOFF LOW FORMS NEAR CUBA. THIS ALLOWS THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD EASTWARD, BUT A STRENGTHENING CAD
WEDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE ATLANTIC SYSTEM HELPS TO OFFSET THIS,
MAINTAINING PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
MAINLY BE OUT OF THE ENE.
NOTE: FALL SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF THE KASN TALLADEGA TAF HAS BEGUN
AS OF 10/18 00Z AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10/28 18Z.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
THE DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH
20FT WINDS STABILIZING TO NEAR 5 MPH DURING THE DAY, AND PEAK
GUSTS BETWEEN 10-15 MPH AT THEIR STRONGEST. THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THOROUGH MIXING, WITH MINRH VALUES
GENERALLY DROPPING TO 25-30% INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN
THESE LOW MINRH VALUES AND DRYING FUELS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL REMAIN MEDIUM FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 39 72 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 41 73 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 43 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 43 74 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 41 71 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 45 71 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 45 74 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 44 72 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...32/JDAVIS
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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