645
FXUS64 KBMX 030434
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1134 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK: A WARMING TREND WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO
105-108 EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN STEADFAST TO START THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, AS THE CENTER OF IT REMAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS
RIDGE, AND IN TURN THE HEAT, WILL REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK, AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER-90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME, WITH PEAK
AFTERNOON NUMBERS RANGING BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES. THE
EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY BREAK DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF. THIS SHOULD INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES FOR A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE
HERE IS LOW REGARDING THE OVERALL IMPACT TO HEAT INDEX VALUES.
BY SUNDAY, THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE WEST,
ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST LOW-END (20-30%) RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN TO
THE FORECAST. THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL UNFORTUNATELY BE SHORT
LIVED, AS A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WEST COAST
COME TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE BACK
EAST, RETURNING IT TO A LOCATION SIMILAR TO WHERE IT CURRENTLY
RESIDES. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND IN THIS SCENARIO,
WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAT HEADLINES RUNNING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
GIVEN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING, VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24-HOURS. REDUCED VIS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AT TCL AND MGM GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL, BUT CONFIDENCE HERE IS LOW,
AND HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN ANY FM GROUP AT THIS TIME.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION
OUTAGE.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40% THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. LOW (10 TO 20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE DAILY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY LOW, BUT
DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RAISE THESE CONCERNS BY
NEXT WEEK GIVEN A LACK OF FORECAST RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 75 97 74 96 / 0 10 0 10
ANNISTON 73 95 73 94 / 0 10 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 76 96 75 95 / 0 10 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 76 98 76 97 / 10 10 10 20
CALERA 75 96 74 94 / 0 10 0 20
AUBURN 74 93 74 91 / 0 10 0 40
MONTGOMERY 76 97 75 95 / 0 10 0 50
TROY 73 96 73 93 / 0 10 10 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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