233
FXUS64 KBMX 111811
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
111 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK, WITH
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY NEXT SATURDAY, BUT HOW MUCH
COOLER REMAINS UNCERTAIN. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THE CENTER OF VERTICALLY STACKED POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS IN NORTH CAROLINA.
WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS IS CURRENTLY LIMITED TO OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES, AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES, OTHER THAN A COUPLE PATCHES OF CIRRUS. SOME DRIER AIR WILL
BE MOVING IN JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, BUT RECENT TROPICAL RAINFALL
AND A SHALLOW INVERSION WILL RESULT IN CONCERNS FOR GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH
TO MENTION PATCHY FOG ALONG RIVER VALLEYS PER LATEST HREF AND
HRRR GUIDANCE, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING ON
GUIDANCE TRENDS.
STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEK,
STEERING ANY PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM THE AREA. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. WHILE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW,
THOSE ENGAGED IN ISAIAS RECOVERY OPERATIONS SHOULD BE MINDFUL OF
THE HEAT. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME DUE TO STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER, CLUSTERS SHOW A
LOT OF SPREAD IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME THE CLUSTER OF PHYSICAL
ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE STRONGER FRONT/COOLEST
TEMPERATURES, SIMILAR TO THE DETERMINISTIC GFS, ARE IN THE
MINORITY. HOWEVER, THE COOLER SOLUTIONS DO HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM
THE AI GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS, CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO FEEL MORE
LIKE FALL NEXT WEEKEND.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH WNW WINDS AT 10-12 KTS
GUSTING TO AROUND 20KTS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH RECENT RAINFALL, THIS RAISES THE CONCERN
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE CURRENT
GUIDANCE ONLY INDICATES LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) POTENTIAL FOR FOG
ALONG RIVERS, GIVEN THE WET GROUND CONDITIONS HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPOS FOR MVFR VIS AT THE TYPICALLY FOGGY TERMINALS
(EET/TCL/MGM). TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
VISIBILITIES AT THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.
NOTE: WILL CONTINUE WITH AMD NOT SKED AT AUO DUE TO MISSING
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. MIN
RHS WILL FALL INTO THE 30-40% RANGE DAILY. HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS
AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 12:
KBHM: 91/1963
KEET: 86/2014
KANB: 88/1963
KTCL: 92/1963
KMGM: 91/2017
OCTOBER 13:
KBHM: 89/1953
KEET: 89/2017
KANB: 90/1954
KTCL: 90/1963
OCTOBER 14:
KBHM: 89/1984
KEET: 89/2016
KANB: 88/1975
KTCL: 90/1962
KMGM: 91/1883
OCTOBER 15:
KBHM: 90/1897
KEET: 92/2025
KANB: 87/1975
KTCL: 91/1962
KMGM: 92/1881
OCTOBER 16:
KBHM: 90/1897
KEET: 90/2025
KANB: 87/1965
KTCL: 90/1962
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 54 87 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 55 87 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 59 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 58 92 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 59 88 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 60 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 57 89 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 58 87 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...32/JDAVIS
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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