986  
FXUS64 KBMX 252057  
AFDBMX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL  
257 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
/UPDATED AT 0239 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2020/  
THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT,  
SLOWLY ERODING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS  
ACROSS THE NORTH. CALM WINDS AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL ALLOW  
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY SUNRISE. HIGH  
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY  
MORNING, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES ALONG THE NORTHWEST  
GULF COAST AND A MORE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, AS THE TWO SYSTEMS MERGE  
AND PUSH EASTWARD. RAINFALL REMAINS LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS  
TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE 50S.  
 
14  
   
LONG TERM
 
 
/UPDATED AT 0300 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2020/  
 
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE AN EAST-  
SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY  
ON SUNDAY, GENERALLY BECOMING MORE PHASED WITH AND COMPLIMENTARY TO  
A SOUTHERN STREAM PERTURBATION. THIS WILL CONTINUE AN ALREADY  
ONGOING TREND OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS THE MID AND LOWER  
TROPOSPHERE BECOME MORE SATURATED. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN, POSSIBLY  
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY, WILL CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST INTO  
MONDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SURFACE-BASED MOIST  
LAYER UP TO ~1 KM INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, SO CARRIED PATCHY  
DRIZZLE THROUGH NOON DESPITE THE DECREASING POP TREND. HAVE NO  
MENTIONABLE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH LOW OVERCAST AND  
DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE UNTIL DRIER AIR CAN ADVECT BACK INTO THE AREA.  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
A BROAD, COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO  
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL COME AND GO DURING  
THIS TIME, OWING TO THE TIMING OF ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT ENTERS  
OUR REGION. THERE ARE CONSISTENT SIGNS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM  
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING.  
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO  
CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRUNCATED POPS  
TO 30-40% UNTIL BETTER TIMING AND OTHER DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED  
UNTIL THEN.  
 
THEREAFTER, LITTLE FORECAST CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON ANY ONE PARTICULAR  
SOLUTION TOWARD MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY  
YIELD YET ANOTHER SYSTEM BY LATE-WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER.  
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICTS THIS NEXT TROUGH/DISTURBANCE WITH MORE  
AMPLIFICATION & RESULTANT POLEWARD EXTENT OF QUALITY MOISTURE.  
INCREASED POPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE FORECAST LATER THURSDAY  
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTIVE OF A  
MORE MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT. AGAIN, POPS ARE TRUNCATED TO ~40% AS  
THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THIS  
TIME. TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD REMAIN QUITE  
SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S & 40S.  
 
40/SIZEMORE  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.  
 
MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE ARE  
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS  
PREVAILING THROUGH THE NIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.LOW LEVELS EXPECTED  
TO BE DRY SUNDAY MORNING...SO LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF TAF FOR  
NOW...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE  
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN AFTER THE TAF  
PERIOD.  
 
24  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE  
LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY  
TOMORROW, REMAINING BELOW 10KTS. RECENT RAINFALL AND SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES WILL HELP MAINTAIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES >40% INTO  
NEXT WEEK WHERE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING CENTRAL  
ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
GADSDEN 31 52 42 54 35 / 0 20 70 20 0  
ANNISTON 32 54 43 55 36 / 0 20 60 20 0  
BIRMINGHAM 35 54 45 56 38 / 0 20 70 10 0  
TUSCALOOSA 37 55 46 58 38 / 0 40 70 10 0  
CALERA 34 54 44 56 38 / 0 30 70 10 0  
AUBURN 35 55 44 55 38 / 0 20 60 20 0  
MONTGOMERY 36 57 45 60 39 / 0 30 60 20 0  
TROY 37 57 45 60 40 / 0 20 50 20 0  
 

 
   
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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