319
FXUS64 KBMX 261727
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
- A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
IT'S ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON. WE
ARE CURRENTLY WATCHING AN MCS FEATURE OVER WEST TENNESSEE DROP
TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
AT THE 500 MB LEVEL THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA.
THIS TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ROUTINELY BRINGS THESE MCS
FEATURES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA, AND TODAY LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR
SETUP. MIDDAY MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A STEEP INSTABILITY GRADIENT
FROM NE MISSISSIPPI TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH >2500 AND
>3500 MLCAPE AND SBCAPE ACROSS NE MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS DRIVING
THE CURRENT MCS TO PROPAGATE MORE SSE RATHER THAN SE OR ESE, AS
STORMS ENTERING THE MORE STABLE REGION OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL
DIE OFF WHILE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE MCS AND JOINING IN THE SSE MOVEMENT ALONG THIS INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA IS ALREADY PROMOTING THE FORMATION OF A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MCS, WHICH WE EXPECT
TO REACH MARION AND WINSTON COUNTIES BY AROUND 3 PM. AS THE
AFTERNOON MOVES ON, WE SHOULD SEE SOME MANNER OF INTENSIFICATION
WITH THE MCS, WHICH WILL POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT, BUT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL AGAIN FEATURE ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NO OFFICIAL SEVERE RISK AREA IS CURRENTLY
DEFINED, WE FORECAST THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS HAVE
LESSER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL 20-30% CHANCES FOR NOW EACH AFTERNOON FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONCENTRATED CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST, MUCH LIKE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AT A MOSTLY STEADY STATE, WITH NOTHING
OUT OF THE ORDINARY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S CAN BE
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING TO LOW 100S AT TIMES.
12
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITH AN APPROACHING MCS. CONTINUED TO
MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUPS AT TCL, BHM, EET FOR TSRA, AND
PROB30 GROUPS AT MGM AND AUO FOR TSRA AS WELL. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING, OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT LOWERED VIS
TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF, BUT THAT WILL BE REVISITED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION
OUTAGE.
12
FIRE WEATHER
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM ARE
FORECAST TO RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 71 93 71 92 / 40 40 40 30
ANNISTON 70 91 70 90 / 40 50 40 40
BIRMINGHAM 72 92 72 91 / 40 50 50 30
TUSCALOOSA 73 93 72 93 / 50 30 40 30
CALERA 72 92 72 91 / 50 50 50 40
AUBURN 72 89 72 87 / 40 70 40 60
MONTGOMERY 74 93 73 91 / 50 70 40 60
TROY 72 91 71 90 / 40 70 40 60
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...12
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