384
FXUS64 KBMX 092045
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
345 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST, MAKING LANDFALL THIS EVENING.
- WINDS: GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 TO 60+ MPH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID-
DAY SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES.
- RAIN: AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP
TO 5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN, LOW LYING, AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
- TROPICAL TORNADOES: ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENTLY WE ARE IN A LEVEL 1 TO 2, OUT OF 5
RISK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
HERE IS THE LATEST ON THE FORECAST AS THE MAIN FOCUS ONCE AGAIN
REMAINS HURRICANE ISAIAS. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MAINLY DEALS
WITH THE UPGRADE TO THE WARNINGS (TROPICAL AND WIND). WE HAVE
JUST SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE TIMING TO BE A TOUCH EARLIER, KEY
MESSAGES, AND A REDUCED TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE SLIGHTLY MODIFIED
FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND BELOW:
HURRICANE ISAIAS OVERVIEW:
HURRICANE ISAIAS IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE SOUTH OF
GULF SHORES, ALABAMA. ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE U.S.
NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT.
AFTER LANDFALL, IT WILL UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
TURNS NORTHWESTWARD, OCCLUDES, AND MERGES INTO A DEEPENING UPPER
LOW OVER MISSISSIPPI ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY
WEAKENS, AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
TONIGHT:
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRESENT BY EARLY EVENING, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE PEAK WIND IMPACTS WILL MATERIALIZE
AFTER LANDFALL AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND PROBABILITIES MAY BE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST, AND DO NOT
FULLY REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AN
INVERSION/STABLE LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
CLOSER TO THE COAST, THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE. HIGHEST SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES, WITH HIGHER WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60+ MPH EXTENDING FURTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED IMPACTS OF WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES,
WIND-RELATED HAVE BEEN ISSUED. WITH THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM, DETERMINING THE EXACT BOUNDARY TO TRANSITION FROM TROPICAL
TO NON-TROPICAL WIND PRODUCTS REMAINS CHALLENGING. GENERALLY, I-20
IN THE EAST AND I-22 SERVE AS THE APPROXIMATE CUTOFF BETWEEN
TROPICAL STORM AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
AFTER THE SYSTEM LOSES ITS TROPICAL STATUS, ADDITIONAL WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER WEST ALABAMA WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT CORE OF THE CIRCULATION EVOLVING INTO
A COMMA-HEAD FEATURE DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AN
ADDITIONAL NORTH-TO-SOUTH BAND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL IS PROJECTED TO
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA BUT
POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO FAR EASTERN ALABAMA. LOWER RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THESE BANDS, BUT A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA GIVEN THE EXPECTED TROPICAL
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
REGARDING THE TORNADO THREAT TONIGHT, HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT OVER THE AREA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT,
SUGGESTING THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY IF IT ADVANCES INTO PIKE AND BARBOUR COUNTIES DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS, THOUGH THE GREATER THREAT LARGELY HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT:
GUSTY TO LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES,
THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO
DAYTIME MIXING AND ENHANCED WIND FIELDS ALOFT. A MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION, RESULTING IN A GENERAL DECREASE
IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN, THOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW. A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN MAY
LINGER NEAR THE GEORGIA STATE LINE, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
REMAINING IN GEORGIA.
INSTABILITY TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65,
WHILE A DEVELOPING COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT SERVES AS THE WESTERN
BOUNDARY FOR THE SEVERE THREAT. IN GENERAL, INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY DECREASE. HOWEVER,
SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY PERSIST TO
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT DURING THE MORNING, THOUGH
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE PRIMARY NORTH-TO-SOUTH CONVECTIVE BAND
WILL HAVE SHIFTED INTO GEORGIA BY THAT TIME. INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS, CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE EVALUATED, AS
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
SUNDAY ONWARD:
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. BEYOND SUNDAY, DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR NORTHERN SITES THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON WHILE SOUTHERN SITES WILL FALL BELOW VFR AS EARLY AS MID
AFTERNOON. HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL MAKE LANDFALL BY EARLY EVENING
AND MOVE NORTHWARD WITH TIME, RESULTING IN LOW CIGS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND INCREASING WINDS WITH WIND SHEAR AT ALL SITES
STARTING AS EARLY AS 22Z SOUTH AND AS LATE AS 01Z NORTH AND
PERSIST THROUGH 08Z SOUTH AND 13Z NORTH. WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED
AT LEAST 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 10Z SOUTH AND AFTER 15Z NORTH.
05
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN CHANCES AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY, WHILE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL HAVE RH VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE. FIRE DANGER FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY BE ELEVATED FRIDAY
AS WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL
SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS HURRICANE ISAIAS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DRIER
AIR MOVES QUICKLY BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 57 75 59 77 / 100 100 60 10
ANNISTON 59 76 61 76 / 100 100 60 10
BIRMINGHAM 59 74 60 78 / 100 90 50 10
TUSCALOOSA 60 73 59 84 / 100 90 30 0
CALERA 60 74 60 78 / 100 80 40 0
AUBURN 61 78 61 77 / 100 80 40 0
MONTGOMERY 61 78 59 81 / 100 50 20 0
TROY 61 79 59 81 / 100 50 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHAMBERS-CHILTON-CLAY-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-
CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-
ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-
MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-
RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...05
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