398
FXUS64 KBMX 270546
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1144 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
- THE SEVERE STORM THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED TO A HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. SMALL STREAM FLOODING ALONG WITH FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT.
- A DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
THE KBMX RADAR HAS BEEN PRETTY BUSY THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL
STRONG STORMS EARLIER IN THE EVENING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE HAIL. THE FIRST STORM OF THE DAY RODE ALONG THE
NOSE OF A THETA-E RIDGE RIGHT INTO CENTRAL AL WHERE IT PRODUCED A
THIN TORNADO. WE WILL BE SURVEYING THAT STORM TOMORROW MORNING.
OUR SEVERE RISK IS JUST ABOUT OVER FOR THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF INSTABILITY. AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL, WE WILL TRANSITION
TO A HYDRO THREAT THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY MONITORING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS EARLIER TODAY HINTED AT A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER WHICH
WOULD HELP PROMOTE HIGH RAINFALL RATES. WE HAVE SEEN THIS SCENARIO
PLAY OUT WITH MRMS INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES GENERALLY RANGING
FROM 3- 5"/HR. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SHORTWAVE CARVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
US AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE.
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT REGAINS SOME MOVEMENT.
DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE RATHER PLEASANT WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY RETURN TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OUR
ANOTHER FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE HEAD OUR WAY.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS, INCLUDING TCL, BHM, AND
EET. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z, AFFECTING MGM AND AUO. LOW IFR STRATUS WILL ALSO BE
AN IMPACT AT TIMES AS WELL, WHICH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO OBSERVE
VFR CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO 30-40%. LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP NEGATE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO RECOVER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MIN RH VALUES BACK INTO THE 40-50% RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 54 70 42 72 / 80 0 0 0
ANNISTON 55 70 44 73 / 90 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 56 70 47 73 / 90 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 57 72 44 75 / 80 0 0 0
CALERA 57 71 45 75 / 90 10 0 0
AUBURN 57 68 52 71 / 90 40 10 10
MONTGOMERY 60 71 51 74 / 90 40 10 0
TROY 60 71 53 73 / 100 60 10 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...56/GDG
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