981
FXUS64 KBMX 161146
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
646 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE THAT SOME COMMUNITIES ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SEE THEIR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN, ANY
ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN COVERAGE AS FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
A PWAT (MOISTURE) DEFICIT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF ALABAMA
THIS WEEKEND (FRIDAY EVENING WEATHER BALLOON FROM NWS BIRMINGHAM
SHOWED 0.73"); HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN PLUMES OF INCREASED PWATS TO OUR WEST
AND EAST ON SUNDAY. DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE, ARE SHOWN TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALONG THOSE AREAS OF INCREASED MOISTURE. GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE AXIS OVER GEORGIA, IT'S PLAUSIBLE THAT SOME
ACTIVITY CLIPS PARTS OF EAST ALABAMA. OTHERWISE, FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES.
A PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
NEXT WEEK WITH SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALONG ITS SOUTHERN
FLANK. THIS IS LIKELY TO EASE THE INFLUENCE OF NEARBY HIGH
PRESSURE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK AS MOISTURE CONTENT
INCREASES MORE BROADLY. A FRONT IS EVEN SHOWN TO MAKE IT TO OUR
AREA, THOUGH IT'S LIKELY TO BE WEAK GIVEN A MAJORITY OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT MISSING US TO THE NORTH. STILL, IT COULD PROVIDE A
MODEST ENHANCEMENT TO THE COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY.
LASTLY, WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY NEXT WEEK, DEEP-LAYER FLOW ISN'T ALL THAT STRONG
(BULK SHEAR NEAR 25 KNOTS); THUS, AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT ISN'T APPARENT AT THIS TIME.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO THE
INFLUENCE OF EAST COAST SURFACE RIDGING. AS A RESULT DURING THE
DAY WITH MIXING, WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY 5-9KTS AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED AT TIMES DUE TO A
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
HOWEVER, OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, AND NO RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED.
08
FIRE WEATHER
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE NIL TO VERY LOW THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THEN FORECAST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MODERATE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA, THOUGH THE
LACK OF LOW MINRH OR GUSTY WINDS OVER THE DAYS AHEAD LESSENS BONA
FIDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 84 59 88 61 / 0 0 10 0
ANNISTON 84 61 87 63 / 0 0 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 85 63 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 84 60 87 64 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 86 61 88 63 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 86 66 88 66 / 0 0 20 10
MONTGOMERY 87 62 88 64 / 0 0 10 0
TROY 87 62 87 63 / 0 0 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...08
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