993
FXUS64 KBMX 231119
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
619 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
- HEAT: MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 105
DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
THERE ARE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON THE RADAR FROM EARLIER
STORMS ALBEIT DECREASING IN COVERAGE AFTER AN EVENING OF STORMS
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF ALABAMA. IT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER IN THAT AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A LOW
IS PRESENT OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE IS ALSO
A LARGE RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS LEAVES CENTRAL ALABAMA IN AN
AT TIMES ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED WAVES OF CONVECTION AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. ON
TUESDAY, THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER BACK
NORTHWARD BEFORE FIZZLING OUT ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ASSIST IN ANOTHER FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE
AREA IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SLIGHTLY HIGHER STORM CHANCES IN
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
THROUGH THE 7 DAY FORECAST, A FEW UPPER LOWS ROTATE THROUGH THE
CURRENT TROUGH AREA OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION INTO EASTERN CONUS, BUT
OVERALL SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHING REMAINS. OUR SOUTHWEST US RIDGE
REMAINS AS WELL. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WILL BE A PROGRESSION OF
SURFACE BOUNDARIES. WHILE THE LOWER DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN NICE.
LOOK FOR THOSE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, OVERALL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER WITH THE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND ENOUGH TO KEEP
CHANCES LOW FOR NEEDING A HEAT ADVISORY OVER THE NEXT WEEK IF
GUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS TREND. WITH THAT SAID, IT IS AUGUST IN
ALABAMA AND STILL HOT, JUST NOT AS HOT AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS.
08
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE PAST 23/21Z, WITH MGM AND AUO CARRYING PROB30 GROUPS FOR
TSRA PAST 24/01Z.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE,
AND AMD LTD TO CLD AND WIND FOR EET DUE TO A VISIBILITY SENSOR
OUTAGE.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (35 TO 45%) FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
BEGINS TO RETURN ON MONDAY AND INTO THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 93 66 90 65 / 20 0 10 10
ANNISTON 91 66 89 66 / 20 10 20 10
BIRMINGHAM 92 70 90 69 / 20 10 20 10
TUSCALOOSA 96 72 93 71 / 20 10 20 20
CALERA 93 70 90 68 / 20 10 20 10
AUBURN 91 71 88 72 / 30 20 30 10
MONTGOMERY 97 73 93 72 / 30 20 40 10
TROY 96 71 93 69 / 30 20 40 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION.../44/
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