715
FXUS64 KBMX 122348
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
648 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- A STRETCH OF FAIR WEATHER TAKES SHAPE THIS WEEK AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SOME COMMUNITIES ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TO SEE THEIR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY THIS WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND FLORIDA
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LARGER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ATOP SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END
LATER TODAY AS THE GULF SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST; MEANWHILE, THE
GREAT LAKES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SEND A FRONT OUR WAY LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO EVENING. WITH THE FRONT NOT BEING ALL THAT
PRONOUNCED, THERE'S A VERY LOW CHANCE (<10%) FOR IT TO PRODUCE
SOME SPRINKLES OR A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG ITS BAND OF BROKEN
CLOUDS. THIS CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT'S NOT EXPLICITLY STATED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, BUT A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) MAY BE
INTRODUCED IN FUTURE UPDATES IF HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST FEATURES FAIR WEATHER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS. AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
REGION, SOME COMMUNITIES STAND A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF
REACHING 90° FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA
SUGGEST THE WESTERN PERIMETER OF THE RIDGE BECOMING WEAKER MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
SHOULD THIS OCCUR, OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD ARISE. BEING THAT FAR OUT IN TIME, THAT PART OF THE
FORECAST IS FAR FROM BEING "SETTLED." WE'LL SEE HOW THINGS TREND
OVER THE COMING DAYS.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS THIS EVENING FOR
MGM-AUO. CIG HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY LIFT WITH DECREASING COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FOR ALL. BY LATE THIS EVENING, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
FOR ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT,
BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-10KTS WITH MIXING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
08
FIRE WEATHER
A PERIOD OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL TAKE SHAPE THIS WEEK AND
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
MINRH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE 30 PERCENT RANGE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS TO REACH THE UPPER 20S. OTHERWISE, NO (RELATIVELY) LOW
RHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 52 82 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 54 79 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 58 82 56 77 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 59 83 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 56 83 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 57 80 59 77 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 57 81 59 79 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 56 81 58 79 / 10 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...08
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