562
FXUS64 KBMX 141103
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
603 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
- FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SOME COMMUNITIES ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TO SEE THEIR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY THIS WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY
RETURN SOMETIME MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, WITH MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW CONSISTING OF TRANSIENT
RIDGING AND ZONAL FLOW WITH SUBTLE IMPULSES WITHIN. THIS SETUP
WILL YIELD CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL, THEN
MILD, NIGHTS.
NEXT WEEK, FORECAST MODELS SHOW PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
CENTERED OFF THE WEST AND EAST COASTS OF THE U.S. WITH TROUGH
IMPULSES IN BETWEEN. THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW FOR A SHIFT OR
EASING OF THE RIDGE NEAREST TO US, POTENTIALLY OFFERING
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT AS
MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASES. ENSEMBLE DATA DIFFER ON TIMING AND
BREADTH OF ACTIVITY, SO THOSE DETAILS ARE TO BE DETERMINED.
MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA DESPITE HEAVY RAINS LAST WEEK, SO MORE RAIN IS CERTAINLY
WELCOME!
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
IN WAKE OF A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN 5-10 MPH WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY WITH MINRH
REACHING THE UPPER 20 TO LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY, AROUND 5 MPH, WITH SIMILAR MINRH. DEW POINTS
GRADUALLY CLIMB FOR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. RAIN-FREE WEATHER
IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RETURNING SOMETIME DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK. TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 74 43 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 74 46 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 76 51 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 78 50 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 78 49 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 76 52 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 78 50 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 78 49 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...89
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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