735
FXUS64 KBMX 120516
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1116 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1115 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
- COOLER BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- VERY HIGH (90-100%) RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS VERY LOW DUE TO VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SHOWER OR TWO COULD
STILL PASS THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST, BUT NOT MUCH IN ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH EVEN SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR NORTH BY
SUNRISE. A "COOLER" DAY ON THURSDAY, BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY THE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RESPOND SUBSTANTIALLY
ON FRIDAY DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL GETTING MIXED GUIDANCE WITH ONE GROUPING
SHOWING AN OPEN TROUGH, WHILE ANOTHER GROUPING IS A CLOSED OFF
LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE THE THINKING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERN
OPEN TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS MAY BEGIN
SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD, FOLLOWED BE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW SHOWN BY THE
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS/DETERMINISTIC MODELS TYPICALLY
SUGGESTS SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY REMAINING CONFINED CLOSER TO
THE COAST. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EXACT TRACK AS A
FURTHER NORTH TREK WOULD RESULT IN MORE INSTABILITY. WHILE WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR, PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME, WITH INSTABILITY MOSTLY SHOWING UP BEHIND
THE CONVECTION NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER. BEHIND THE SYSTEM,
ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK.
16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE WITH SOME UPPER
TEENS IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, RESULTING
IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND PERHAPS STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 33 62 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 34 62 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 37 62 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 38 66 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 37 65 37 68 / 10 0 0 0
AUBURN 41 66 40 68 / 10 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 43 67 39 70 / 10 0 0 0
TROY 45 68 40 71 / 20 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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