544
FXUS64 KBMX 100534
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1234 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
- STRONG THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS.
- HEAT: HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE
IS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
A 596 DECAMETER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER FLORIDA
AND THE EASTERN GULF TODAY. THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS AND
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING A BIT MORE ANTICYCLONIC MAY RESULT IN A
DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU
GO. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES, AND WET GROUND CONDITIONS REMAIN PRESENT.
ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK SHEAR AXIS WILL REMAIN LOCATED ALONG THE
TN/AL BORDER WHICH COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT EVENTUALLY PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. THEREFORE, WE EXPECT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS ABOVE NBM, IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HREF CALIBRATED
THUNDER PROBABILITIES. WITH THE CONTINUED VERY UNSTABLE, HIGH
PWAT AIR MASS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT AS WELL AS ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING PRIMARILY IN URBAN
AREAS. IN ADDITION, EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS,
WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS.
HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 105 DEGREES IN WEST ALABAMA AHEAD OF
ANY CONVECTION, BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO
LIMITED TO WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST, PLACING
CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT A SIMILAR
STORMY PATTERN TO CONTINUE WITH HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN
APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS
NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, BUT LOW PROBABILITIES WILL
REMAIN EACH DAY GIVEN THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. HEAT INDICES
OF 105-110 SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD RESULTING IN MEDIUM TO
HIGH (50-80%) CHANCES FOR HEAT ADVISORIES. HEATRISK WILL INCREASE
INTO THE MAJOR CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH LIMITED
RECOVERY FROM THE HEAT OVERNIGHT.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED AT ALL SITES, THEREFORE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT EET AND TCL NEAR SUNRISE, WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE
BEEN INCLUDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY,
KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AT LESS THAN 7 KNOTS. DESPITE THE BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE, THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH 03Z. GREATEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN SITES (TCL, BHM, EET AND
MGM) AND MOVING INTO AUO AFTER 21Z, WARRANTING PROB30 GROUPS FOR
TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HELP KEEP MINRH VALUES GENERALLY
ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY. BECAUSE OF THIS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 93 74 93 74 / 50 20 50 10
ANNISTON 91 73 90 74 / 40 20 50 10
BIRMINGHAM 91 75 91 75 / 50 20 60 10
TUSCALOOSA 94 75 93 75 / 40 20 50 10
CALERA 92 74 92 74 / 40 20 60 10
AUBURN 89 74 89 75 / 40 20 40 10
MONTGOMERY 94 75 94 76 / 40 20 30 10
TROY 93 74 94 74 / 30 20 20 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...32/JDAVIS
AVIATION...16
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