511
FXUS64 KBMX 250446
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1146 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
- COOLER, DRIER EARLY FALL PATTERN: A NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS SETTLES ACROSS CENTRAL AL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER-TO-MIDDLE 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR, THOUGH STUBBORN CLOUD COVER MAY PERSIST SOUTH OF
I-85 THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES, PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR
WATERWAYS, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE. MORNING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
24 HOURS AGO. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING
COOL, DRY AIR THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PUSHING LOW TEMPERATURES TO
THEIR LOWEST POINT SATURDAY MORNING, WITH MID 50S NORTHEAST TO
LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.
THE FROECAST REMAINS DRY AND COOL THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HEAT
INDICES CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS
TO DIVERGE BY MONDAY, EXHIBITING A SLOWER TREND WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK EASTWARD NEXT WEEK, BRINGING THE NEXT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. GIVEN THE SLOWER MOVEMENT, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
STATE AROUND MID- WEEK OR SLIGHTLY LATER.
SOUTHERLY BEGINS TO INCREASE SLOWLY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS RETURN FLOW WILL DRIVE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND SLOW
MOISTURE RECOVERY, ALTHOUGH WE MAY REMAIN DRY AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE HAVE SEE
THE END OF THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AS MODELS ARE HINTING AT
ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM TEMPERATURES TO USHER IN OCTOBER.
16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AT AUO
AND MGM. THEY WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT AT AUO, BUT TEMPORARY AT
MGM. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST WE SHOULD SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ON
FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(20 TO 40 %) OF PATCHY GROUND FOG AT ALL SITES, WITH THE LOWEST
CHANCE AT BHM. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO WORDING FOR THESE SITES FROM
10 TO 13Z.
16
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS
KEEPING OVERALL CONCERNS MINIMAL. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60% THROUGH FRIDAY, DROPPING TO
30 TO 40% OVER THE WEEKEND, AND REACHING THE UPPER 20 TO 30%
RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES AND LIGHT
WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 60 77 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 58 76 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 61 79 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 63 84 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 60 79 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 59 76 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 62 79 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 60 80 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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