383
FXUS64 KBMX 020524
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1124 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
- TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN TYPICAL FOR EARLY
MARCH WITH HIGHS AND LOWS AS MUCH AS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
- PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN FROM THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
SATELLITE IS INDICATING THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER TO
OUR N ACROSS TN, N MS AND INTO N AL WHERE A MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS
MOVING EWD THROUGH THE ALMOST ZONAL FLOW (WNW). THERE ARE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT A
SHOWER OR TWO COULD SCRAPE OUR FAR NRN ROW OF C AL COUNTIES, THE
BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD STAY TO OUR N. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS
IMPULSE WILL BE MID LEVEL AND CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES REMAIN A
TAD MILDER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, C AL SHOULD STAY RAINFREE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM THROUGH WED. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE
EWD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MON AND
THEN PUSH EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR FLOW
TURNING TO SEWD INTO AL ON MON. RETURNING ONSHORE SE FLOW WILL
ALLOW WARM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE SLOWLY FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH WSW/TO A SOMEWHAT
ZONAL FLOW FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE EWD OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TUE INTO WED AND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS IT DOES SO ON WED, OUR UPPER FLOW INTO AL
WILL BECOME SW. BY THU, THE BETTER ENERGY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER IA/MO/IL, BUT WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RIPPLES THROUGH THE SW FLOW FOR PORTIONS OF C AL THU/FRI. THIS AS
WELL AS PERTURBATIONS FROM AROUND A LARGER DEEPENING LOW OVER THE
SW US INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL KEEP POPS OFF/ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING TOWARD THE WEEKEND, WITH RAIN
CHANCES RESPONDING UPWARD ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER, WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE OR INTRODUCTION OF A COLD AIRMASS,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME HIGH TEMP RECORDS
IN JEOPARDY.
08
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE, AND ASSOCIATED PATTERN OF ISENTROPIC LIFT,
WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY CLIPS NORTH ALABAMA. FOR OUR
AREA/CENTRAL ALABAMA, TAME WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR ALL AND A TREND TOWARD VARIABLE
CLOUDS FOR SOME.
VARIED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATER THIS WEEK. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE FOCUS FOR
THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST DUE TO
RIDGING CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.; HOWEVER, ISOLATED
ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR LOCALLY. FOR THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE DATA SHOW
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS, IN PART DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S RIDGE, IN TERMS OF HOW FAR EAST A CENTRAL U.S. FRONT
GETS AND WHETHER ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS MAINTAINED OR
BECOMES DEGRADED. THE CURRENT FORECAST INCLUDES AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS ENSEMBLE MEANS BRING THE FRONT
CLOSE TO THE AREA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE LATE THIS
WEEK, WITH FORECAST HIGHS NEAR RECORDS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
VFR CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 7 KNOTS.
87/GRANTHAM
FIRE WEATHER
SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. MINRHS WILL
BE LOWEST FOR THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON, AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. THEREAFTER, INCREASED DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST, KEEPING
DAILY MINRHS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, IN THE 40S/50S. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST STARTING MONDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK AT 5-10 MPH DURING THE DAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
NIGHT. LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY, BUT
MORE SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
MARCH 4:
KBHM: 84/1976
KEET: 84/2022
KTCL: 83/1976
KMGM: 85/2022
MARCH 5:
KBHM: 83/1974
KEET: 83/2022
KANB: 84/1974
KTCL: 83/1974
KMGM: 85/1989
MARCH 6:
KBHM: 83/1974
KEET: 81/2023
KANB: 84/1974
KTCL: 83/1974
KMGM: 86/2022
MARCH 7:
KBHM: 84/1956
KEET: 83/2023
KTCL: 85/2023
KMGM: 87/2023
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 48 75 52 75 / 10 10 0 0
ANNISTON 51 76 53 74 / 10 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 53 77 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 51 79 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 51 78 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 51 76 55 74 / 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 48 78 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
TROY 48 78 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08/89
AVIATION...87/GRANTHAM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page