122
FXUS64 KBMX 301859
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
159 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS AND COMFORTABLE MORNINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- LOOK FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AREAWIDE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY 1 TO 2
INCHES, LOCALLY HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
THE WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW, THEY WILL BE HIGHER THAN THOSE
OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BEGINS ADVECTING FROM THE
GULF. POSITIONED ALONG THE RIDGE, CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL EXPERIENCE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, SUPPORTING ONSHORE MOISTURE RETURN AND STEADILY
INCREASING DEW POINTS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MUST RECOVER FURTHER
BEFORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CAN OCCUR, LOW RAIN CHANCES
RETURN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN CHANCES ARE DELAYED UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND
AS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A 5 TO 15% RISK OF EXCEEDING FLASH
FLOOD CRITERIA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A 250MB JET STREAK
SLIDES TO OUR NORTH AND PUTS NORTHWEST ALABAMA IN THE ENTRANCE
SIDE OF THE JET.
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM-TO-HIGH THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OR BECOME
SLOW-MOVING, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON SUNDAY, THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN MORE
GULF MOISTURE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
MOST LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
MONDAY, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH
ON MONDAY, USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND WITH
LIGHT SE WINDS.
16
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S THROUGH THE 30S
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE ON
THURSDAY WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, WITH 50S AND
LOW 60S ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
LATE THIS WEEK AND INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 59 92 67 92 / 0 0 0 20
ANNISTON 61 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 20
BIRMINGHAM 65 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 20
TUSCALOOSA 64 94 70 94 / 0 0 0 20
CALERA 65 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 20
AUBURN 66 88 69 89 / 0 0 0 30
MONTGOMERY 67 92 70 92 / 0 0 0 40
TROY 66 90 69 90 / 0 10 0 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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