574
FXUS64 KBMX 131124
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
624 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- PERSISTENT HEAT: AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT
INDICES FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO ABOVE 100 DEGREES. TAKE EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS WITH ANY EXTENDED AFTERNOON OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CLEARING
AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BY SUNDAY, RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO A LOW-
END, WIDELY ISOLATED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN PATTERN. LATEST CAMS SHOW
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON (15 TO
20%), WARRANTING A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN POPS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ON MONDAY, THOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHEAST DURING PEAK HEATING.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING OVERALL COVERAGE, SO POPS WILL
BE KEPT AT 10% FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHS REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW (10 TO 20%), WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
QUICKLY REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW TO MID-90S.
16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
IFR CONDITIONS AT MGM WITH LOW VIS AND CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z, IMPROVING TO VFR. SIMILAR SITUATION WITH AUO.
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN MGM TAF. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR FROM 15Z
ONWARDS.
AMD NOT SKED IS APPENDED AT AUO DUE TO MISSING OBSERVATIONS.
12
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BETWEEN 35-45% THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, WITH VERY LIMITED RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST PAST
MONDAY. WHILE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW FOR NOW,
INCREASING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PUSH THESE CONCERNS UP BY LATE
NEXT WEEK IF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOES NOT FALL BY THEN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 93 68 96 70 / 0 0 10 0
ANNISTON 91 68 94 70 / 0 0 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 93 72 96 73 / 0 0 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 96 72 99 72 / 10 0 0 0
CALERA 93 71 96 71 / 0 0 10 0
AUBURN 91 71 94 72 / 10 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 93 72 96 72 / 10 10 0 0
TROY 93 70 95 70 / 20 10 0 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...12
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