109
FXUS64 KBMX 031137
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL: SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN
1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
REGION, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE.
- SEASONABLE WEATHER: SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEGIN ON TUESDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
IN GENERAL, THE OVERALL THINKING AND SYNOPTIC SETUP WITH THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINS UNCHANGED. OUR TWO MAIN
FEATURES REMAIN THE STALLED FRONT TO THE NORTH, AND THE
DISTURBANCE MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF. EVEN 36-HOURS OUT, THERE
ARE STILL QUESTION MARKS AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE GULF
DISTURBANCE, AND THE POSITION OF THE STALLED FRONT. AT THIS TIME,
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT HAS STALLED NORTH OF WHERE IT WAS
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED TO. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN HOWEVER, IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INLAND SLIGHTLY MORE
ORGANIZED THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO NOT DONE
A GOOD JOB CAPTURING THE SCOPE OF DIURNALLY/OUTFLOW DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS GIVEN THESE HIGH PWAT VALUES. BECAUSE OF THAT,
EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH THE
MAIN SHOW ON SUNDAY, SOME OF THE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MAY HELP MAKE UP FOR THIS DEFICIT.
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL STILL LOOKS TO FALL ON SUNDAY, AS THE
COLD FRONT STARTS TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. AT THIS TIME,
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO FALL SOUTH OF I-20, WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS FALLING CLOSER TO I-85 NEAR THE APEX OF THIS GULF
DISTURBANCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN I-20 AND I-85 WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES, WITH AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
85 PUSHING 2-3 INCHES. IT'S ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE NAM SUITE
OF MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY HIGHLIGHTING LOCALLY HEAVY POCKETS OF
5+ INCHES, BUT THE ONLY THING CONSISTENT HERE ARE THE VALUES. THE
LOCATION OF THESE AMOUNTS VARIES FROM RUN TO RUN, WITH THE ONLY
CONSISTENT THING BEING THE AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PWAT VALUES, LOCAL AMOUNTS LIKE THIS ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
BY TUESDAY MORNING, A DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
HAVE PUSHED THE STALLED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
USHER IN MUCH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE UPPER-70S AND LOW-80S.
/44/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WE ARE IN A SMALL LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOW THROUGH
LATE MORNING. UNTIL THEN, WE HAVE SOME STRATUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED.
SOME MVFR CIGS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS C AL ALONG WITH SOME LOWER
LIFR CIGS NEAR AUO. A FEW REDUCED MVFR VIS MAY OCCUR AS WELL NOW
THROUGH 14-16Z. WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN
THIRD OF AL, SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. TS THREAT IS NOT ZERO, BUT IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION ATTM. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY POTENTIAL FOR TS FOR ANY
NEEDED AMENDMENTS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE GENERALLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST.
08
FIRE WEATHER
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES. BROADLY, THE AREA WILL SEE AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCES OF RECEIVING 2 INCHES OR MORE DROP TO 30-
50% ACROSS THE NORTH AND 60-80% IN THE SOUTH, WHILE PROBABILITIES
FOR EXCEEDING 3 INCHES REMAIN LOWER AT 10-20% IN THE NORTH AND 30-
40% IN THE SOUTH. OVERALL, THERE IS ROUGHLY AN 80% CHANCE OF
SEEING AT LEAST 1 INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA, WITH
LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHER TOTALS. DRIER AND COOLER AIR
RETURNS ON TUESDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 88 67 78 63 / 40 80 90 40
ANNISTON 88 68 77 65 / 40 60 100 50
BIRMINGHAM 88 68 77 64 / 40 70 100 40
TUSCALOOSA 92 68 80 65 / 30 70 100 30
CALERA 89 68 77 66 / 40 70 100 40
AUBURN 86 69 75 67 / 40 70 100 80
MONTGOMERY 88 70 77 67 / 50 80 100 70
TROY 87 68 77 67 / 60 80 100 80
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...08
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