928
FXUS64 KBMX 110540
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1240 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
- MAJOR HEAT RISK: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUS HEAT WITH HEAT
INDICES REACHING 105-110°F DAILY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND; HEAT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED
- CONVECTION TRENDS: A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH
20-40% RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, DECREASING THEREAFTER AS
THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING REVEALS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CAN BE SEEN WELL TO OUR NORTH, WHICH IS HELPING GUIDE AN
AREA OF CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE WEAK RIDGE
AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WEST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, EVENTUALLY EXPANDING AND STRENGTHENING LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
STEADILY WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY SETTLING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONTINUED
HUMID CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THESE TEMPS WILL BUMP HEAT INDICES
INTO THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY
DAILY STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF EFI HINTS AT UNUSUALLY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR US OVER THE WEEKEND, GENERALLY 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MAJOR HEAT RISK
FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A TYPICALLY SUMMERTIME CONVECTION
REGIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (20-40%)
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY, WE WILL SEE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES AS THE UPPER RIDGE
TAKES CONTROL AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE, PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS NARROW AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS CALL
TO 2-5MB. LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE REDUCED VISIBILITIES OUT THE
DOOR TUESDAY MORNING.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED, LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
AT ALL SITES. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES NEAR SUNRISE WARRANTS TEMPO GROUPS AT
ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT BHM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY,
MAINTAINING WINDS BELOW 7 KNOTS. DESPITE THE RIDGING, TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
01Z, THOUGH WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN MONDAY. STORM CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGHEST AT AUO; PROB30 GROUPS ARE INCLUDED FOR BHM AND
EET FROM 20Z TO 01Z.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HELP KEEP MINRH VALUES GENERALLY
ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES OVER
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING MINRHS DOWN INTO THE 40-50% RANGE. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 92 74 93 74 / 40 20 50 10
ANNISTON 90 73 90 74 / 40 20 40 10
BIRMINGHAM 91 75 92 76 / 40 10 40 10
TUSCALOOSA 92 75 94 76 / 20 10 30 0
CALERA 91 74 93 74 / 30 10 40 10
AUBURN 88 75 89 76 / 40 20 40 10
MONTGOMERY 93 75 94 76 / 20 10 30 10
TROY 93 74 93 74 / 10 10 30 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...16
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page