042
FXUS64 KBMX 110523
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1123 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1115 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-80%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY, HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- HIGH (80-90%) RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS, AT LEAST FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
THE LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA.
ECHOES ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND YET AS CLOUD DECKS ARE STILL
QUITE HIGH. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING,
THESE DECKS WILL LOWER AND RAIN WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE SURFACE.
MUCAPE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THUNDER IS NOT REALLY
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT THERE IS A MINIMAL CHANCE
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES JUST AFTER 12 PM. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DECREASE IN AERIAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH GENERALLY A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF INCH EXPECTED, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN THE NORTH.
THE FRONT STILL APPEARS TO CLEAR THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL GETTING MIXED GUIDANCE WITH ONE GROUPING
SHOWING AN OPEN TROUGH, WHILE ANOTHER GROUPING IS A CLOSED OFF
LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE THE THINKING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERN
OPEN TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS MAY BEGIN
SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD, FOLLOWED BE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW SHOWN BY THE
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS/DETERMINISTIC MODELS TYPICALLY
SUGGESTS SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY REMAINING CONFINED CLOSER TO
THE COAST. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EXACT TRACK AS A
FURTHER NORTH TREK WOULD RESULT IN MORE INSTABILITY. WHILE WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR, PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME, WITH INSTABILITY MOSTLY SHOWING UP BEHIND
THE CONVECTION NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER.
16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. A
LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY BY 09Z
FOR MOST TERMINALS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A LINE OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE WHICH WOULD LEAD TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VFR RETURNING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
NORTH IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD
FRONT WITH 20FT WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY. THE FRONT HAS TRENDED
STRONGER RESULTING IN DRIER AIR MOVING IN. RH VALUES MAY DROP
BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND PERHAPS STORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 53 64 34 61 / 80 80 0 0
ANNISTON 51 65 34 62 / 70 70 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 54 64 37 62 / 70 60 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 56 67 37 65 / 50 40 0 0
CALERA 54 68 37 65 / 60 50 0 0
AUBURN 57 70 40 65 / 50 50 10 0
MONTGOMERY 59 74 41 67 / 40 40 10 0
TROY 58 75 44 68 / 40 40 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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