473
FXUS64 KBMX 260556
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1149 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS SEVERE
ACTIVITY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
RAIN IS CURRENTLY ONGOING WELL TO OUR NORTH, AS THIS ELONGATED COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT, EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AS THE MORNING GOES ON,
AND THE FRONT DROPS FARTHER SOUTH. CURRENT THINKING IS A RAGGED LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING, EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE DISORGANIZED AS NEW STORMS FORM
AHEAD OF THE LINE. THIS IS WHERE EVEN THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE STARTS
TO SPLIT, AS A FEW DIFFERENT SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE WHEN IT COMES TO
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, AS MEAN HREF CAPE VALUES ARE PUSHING 900 J/KG ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20 LATER TODAY. THE MID-LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY TOO,
AS 700-500MB LAPSE RATES WERE PUSHING 7.5 C/KM ON MANY OF THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS I PULLED THIS EVENING. INCLUDING THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, THE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO FAVORABLE FOR
LARGE HAIL, WITH THE SPC INTRODUCING A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5)
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID, THIS IS NOT A SLAM DUNK, THUS THE SPC
ONLY INTRODUCING THE LEVEL 1/5. THERE ARE MORE THAN A FEW SCENARIOS
WHERE THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS COMPLETELY DEPLETE THE ATMOSPHERE OF
INSTABILITY, AND CHOKE OFF ANY KIND OF RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS ALSO A SCENARIO IN WHICH AFTERNOON STORMS GROW VERY
QUICKLY, CHOKING THE UPDRAFTS OF MORE MATURE STORMS, LIMITING THE
HAIL POTENTIAL AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. REGARDLESS OF THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL, THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING HALF AN INCH TO
AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
QUICKLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER-70S COME SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME NEAR MONDAY, BRIEFLY
DROPPING TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE, BEFORE VERY QUICKLY REBOUNDING INTO
WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH IT'S NOT IN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD, THE
WEATHER STORY WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES,
AS A STOUT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR EAST COME THIS
TIME NEXT WEEK.
/44/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN, LEADING TO MVFR CIGS. INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY
DROPPING TO IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE, SO KEPT MENTION OF
PROB30S FOR TSRA IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THIS PERIOD LEADING TO
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND LOW CEILINGS.
25/OWEN
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO DROP ON FRIDAY, AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY
WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. UNTIL THEN, LOOK FOR MINRH VALUES TO
REMAIN ABOVE 50%, AS MODERATE RAIN CHANCES STAY IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE QUICK DRYING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE GIVEN
THE UPCOMING RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 53 68 48 70 / 50 90 50 10
ANNISTON 54 68 50 70 / 40 80 60 10
BIRMINGHAM 56 68 51 70 / 50 80 60 10
TUSCALOOSA 57 72 50 72 / 40 70 70 10
CALERA 55 71 50 72 / 40 80 70 10
AUBURN 56 69 55 70 / 40 70 80 40
MONTGOMERY 56 73 57 72 / 30 70 90 40
TROY 55 75 58 72 / 30 50 80 60
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...25/OWEN
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