920
FXUS64 KBMX 090711
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
211 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 135 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND
LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
THE LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE JUST ABOUT ENDED ACROSS THE
AREA. LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN
THROUGH SUNRISE. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING, A COLD FRONT
WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BEFORE STALLING IN THE
SOUTHEAST. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, THERE WILL SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL ARE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS GENERALLY FROM 2 PM TO 10 PM.
MEANWHILE, A LOW WILL SLIDE UP FROM THE GULF INTO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND INTO TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES ONLY INCREASE ON SATURDAY
AS THE LOW SLIDES INTO THE AREA. RAISED RAIN CHANCES ABOUT 20
PERCENT MORE THAN GUIDANCE AS THIS WILL BE A NICE SOAKER ACROSS
THE AREA. KEPT IN LOW CHANCE THUNDER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST INSTABILITIES.
THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING ON THE ELEVATED SIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AGAIN A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT MOSTLY JUST GENERAL STORMS.
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM UP TO 1 INCH
ACROSS THE NORTH TO UP TO 1.5 IN THE I-20 CORRIDOR, TO 1.5 TO 2
INCHES IN THE I-85 CORRIDOR TO 2 TO 2.5 INCHES IN FAR SOUTHEAST.
16
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
BROAD RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OVER MUCH OF THE ARKLATEX REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IN POSITION OF
THESE FEATURES IS FORECAST SUNDAY BEFORE LONGWAVE TROUGHING MOVES
OVER MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, RESULTING IN THE SOUTHWEST
RIDGE TO DEAMPLIFY AND MOVER FURTHER EAST OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST WILL LIFT NORTHWARD LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION AS LOW-
AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTHWEST NEAR THE
MOBILE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE COASTAL/MARINE FRONT
EXTENDING ROUGHLY DUE EAST JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND A
WEAKER SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE ROUGHLY ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHILE AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD TO
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA STATE LINE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
DRIFT SOUTH FURTHER OFFSHORE WHILE THE COASTAL/MARINE AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONTS CONSOLIDATE AND EXTEND FROM THE LOW
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY MORNING
WHILE INVERTED TROUGHING PERSISTS FROM THE SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD
INTO MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY, EXPECT A
SURFACE LOW REFLECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THAT
WILL QUICKLY OCCLUDE WITH THE TRIPLE POINT INITIALLY OVER COASTAL
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BUT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE INTERSTATE
85 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY MORNING AND INTO GEORGIA LATER IN THE DAY.
THIS MOVEMENT WILL PLACE THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A FEW HOURS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY ON MONDAY WHERE SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA, EXTENDING FROM EAST TENNESSEE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH GEORGIA AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED (45-70%) CHANCES
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BEST POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND FURTHER ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
(55-65%) CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA AND
NUMEROUS (65-80%) SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS (70-85%) SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
AREAWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST CHANCES EAST FOLLOWED BY
NUMEROUS (80-95%) ACTIVITY MONDAY WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES. A REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
(55-75%) ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WITH ISOLATED
(35-55%) ELSEWHERE AND A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL EXIST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS (55-85%) ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA AND ISOLATED (35-55%) ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST TO
READINGS IN THE LOW 60S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S FEAR EAST SUNDAY TO READINGS IN THE MID 70S
SOUTH AND WEST FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR EAST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH AND WEST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE REMNANT TROUGHING WILL MOVE EAST OVER GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY FILLS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION. THE OVERALL MID-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED ON THURSDAY WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM OVER
COASTAL TEXAS NORTHEAST TO OVER THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILE
LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL EXTEND FROM OVER CENTRAL CANADA EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST TO OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE AREA BECOMES
POSITIONED BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND POWERFUL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE DAY THURSDAY.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A FURTHER REDUCTION IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED (15-35%) CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WITH VERY LOW (5-15%)
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED (10-20%) SHOWERS MAY PERSIST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
AREAWIDE THURSDAY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S EAST TO THE MID 60S WEST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE LOWER
80S EAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S SOUTH AND WEST.
05
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF BHM AND EET MOVING EAST.
INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 8Z. WILL MONITOR THE
FOG SCENARIO THROUGH SUNRISE. DID GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE AT TCL,
GIVEN THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY CLEARING UP SO THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN
QUICKER THERE. WILL AMEND FOR THE OTHER SITES IF IT BECOMES
APPARENT. LOOK FOR AGAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL DEVELOP AFTER 3Z IN THE SOUTH
AND SLIDE UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
16
FIRE WEATHER
THE CONTINUED WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 50 PERCENT RANGE
FROM MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH CONTINUED
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 79 57 69 53 / 20 20 70 50
ANNISTON 80 59 69 55 / 20 40 80 60
BIRMINGHAM 79 59 68 57 / 20 40 80 60
TUSCALOOSA 80 61 70 58 / 30 40 80 50
CALERA 79 60 70 59 / 20 60 80 60
AUBURN 82 62 70 60 / 20 70 80 70
MONTGOMERY 83 63 72 60 / 40 70 90 70
TROY 83 62 72 60 / 50 70 90 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...16
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