128
FXUS64 KMOB 290836
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
336 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROF ORIENTED NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEAKENS TO NEAR DISSIPATION TODAY WHILE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY. A WESTERN STATES
UPPER TROF MEANWHILE BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EJECTS A
SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFT OFF TO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF MEANWHILE ADVANCING
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES THEN LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF
AN UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON MONDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MAINTAINS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN A SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL
OFF TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH LESSER POPS FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A VEERING PROFILE IN THE
LOWEST 3 KM IS NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 250-750 J/KG, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THAT
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IS OF THE "TALL AND SKINNY" VARIETY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER MOIST, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE
DOWNDRAFTS, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE STRONG STORM
DEVELOPMENT CONSIDERING THE SHEAR PROFILE. TWO ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE FIRST DURING
THE DAY THEN THE SECOND FROM VERY LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HAVE OPTED FOR LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT FORCING PROVES TO BE A BIT WEAKER WITH
THE RESULT BEING CONVECTION THAT IS SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. MLCAPE
VALUES ON SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG, AND 0-3 KM
HELICITY VALUES RANGE FROM 100-150 M2/S2. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG
THE FORCING PANS OUT TO BE, COULD SEE SOME STORMS BECOME SEVERE IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT. FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY (ENDING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE), SIMILAR OR
POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER MLCAPE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH 0-3 KM
HELICITY VALUES NEAR 200 M2/S2. THIS SECOND ROUND OF STORMS WILL
LIKELY MANIFEST AS A LINE MORE OR LESS ORIENTED ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT, WITH SOME LEADING DISCRETE CONVECTION
POSSIBLE, DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE FORCING TURNS OUT TO BE.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS, BUT AT THIS POINT THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE STORMS. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT RISK
OVER PORTIONS OF WAYNE AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES DUE TO THE LATE NIGHT
LINE OF CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA. SPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY FOR THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND CONVECTION.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN A MODERATE
RISK IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 1 AM
TONIGHT FOR SURF HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET. /29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CEILINGS LOWERING
TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. CEILINGS ARE
THEN ANTICIPATED TO LOWER TO IFR SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THIS POINT, SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
ALABAMA. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
APPEARS TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
ALABAMA DURING THE EVENING HOURS, THEN SPREADING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, A BIT HIGHER NEAR
THE COAST, ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WHICH THEN DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS
THIS EVENING. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DIMINISH BY
SUNDAY. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOBILE BAY, THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR THE 20-60 NM PORTION UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY THEN BECOMES NORTHERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW RETURNS ON TUESDAY THEN STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 75 64 79 67 81 56 79 63 / 80 60 60 30 80 10 10 0
PENSACOLA 73 66 74 68 78 61 76 66 / 60 50 60 10 80 20 10 0
DESTIN 74 66 74 68 76 63 76 66 / 50 50 50 10 80 20 10 0
EVERGREEN 79 61 79 64 81 53 80 59 / 50 50 70 30 90 20 10 0
WAYNESBORO 77 62 82 65 81 49 80 60 / 80 50 60 50 80 20 10 0
CAMDEN 77 61 80 64 79 50 79 60 / 50 50 70 40 90 20 10 0
CRESTVIEW 79 61 79 64 81 55 80 59 / 50 50 60 10 80 20 10 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR GMZ630>632-650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ670-675.
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MOB
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