611
FXUS64 KMOB 090829
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
329 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 326 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- HURRICANE/STORM SURGE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST.
HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM HAZARD HEADLINES INLAND.
- HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE LOCAL COASTLINE THIS EVENING.
- SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS,
INCLUDING HIGH WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, STORM SURGE, TORNADOES,
DANGEROUS SURF, AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS IS STARTING ITS NORTHWARD TURN OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF THIS MORNING, STEERED BY AN APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THE STORM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY, POTENTIALLY REACHING
PEAK STRENGTH AS A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE
APPROACHING UPPER JET STREAK WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR
THAT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING, ISAIAS INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED MEANS IT WILL HAVE LITTLE TIME TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO A
PROJECTED LANDFALL ALONG OUR COASTLINE THIS EVENING. TRACK GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO NUDGE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, ALIGNING CLOSER TO AI MODELS
WITH A LANDFALL FAVORED NEAR OR EAST OF PENSACOLA, THOUGH LAST-
MINUTE TRACK WOBBLES REMAIN POSSIBLE AND COULD DRAMATICALLY ALTER
LOCAL COASTAL IMPACTS. BEYOND LANDFALL, THE STORM WILL ACCELERATE
AND PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTWARD, SPREADING STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FAR INLAND. MEANWHILE, DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE BACKSIDE WILL RAPIDLY END PRECIPITATION ONCE THE CORE
MOVES INLAND. JGC/98
WITH HURRICANE ISAIAS MAKING LANDFALL WITHIN 24 HOURS, WE'LL PLACE
AN EXTRA EMPHASIS ON THE EXPECTED/POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THIS EVENT.
HAZARDS UPDATE
--------------
COVINGTON AND CONECUH COUNTIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED FROM A HURRICANE
WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING AS OF THE THURSDAY EVENING ADVISORY.
ALL OTHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH HURRICANE
WARNINGS AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE LOCAL
COASTLINE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR INLAND COUNTIES STRETCHING
FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF ALABAMA STRETCHING INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE AND LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING.
WIND IMPACTS
------------
WHILE ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO A MAJOR HURRICANE
THIS MORNING, IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT PEAK
INTENSITY DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. IT IS STILL GOING
TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL THIS EVENING
LIKELY BETWEEN MOBILE BAY AND CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY. THE LATEST
FORECAST FROM NHC SHOWS ISAIAS MAKING LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY 2
HURRICANE WITH 100 MPH MAX SUSTAINED WINDS AND 120 MPH GUSTS.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA EXTENDING INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
SINCE ISAIAS IS MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY, THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT
EXTENDS FURTHER INLAND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA. THE
WIND FIELD WILL ALSO EXPAND WHILE WEAKENING, SO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MOBILE HOMES TO BE DAMAGED ALONG WITH
CONSIDERABLE ROOF DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES. ADDITIONALLY, NUMEROUS LARGE
TREES MAY BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ALONGSIDE BLOWN DOWN ROAD SIGNS AND
FENCES. THIS DEBRIS COULD LEAD TO ROADS BECOMING IMPASSABLE AND
WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES.
THE MAIN WINDOW FOR WIND IMPACTS IS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WITH ISAIAS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL/FLOODING IMPACTS
-------------------------
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
PERSISTS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR CONSIDERABLE FLASH
FLOODING IS IN OUR COASTAL COUNTIES EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR PERDIDO BAY AND
PENSACOLA. THERE LOOKS TO BE TWO MAIN AXIS' OF HEAVY RAINFALL, ONE
CONCENTRATED TO THE CORE OF ISAIAS AND IN THE OUTER RAIN BAND TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER (LIKELY FURTHER EAST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
CLOSER TO APALACHICOLA).
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4-7" RANGE EAST
OF THE ALABAMA RIVER, WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 8-12" POSSIBLE
WHERE BANDING SETS UP ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SOILS ARE
ALREADY WETTER THAN NORMAL FOLLOWING LAST WEEK'S RAINFALL AND WE'RE
EXPECTING MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO OCCUR WITHIN A 12-18 HOUR
TIMEFRAME. COMBINING THAT WITH RAINFALL RATES PEAKING IN THE 3-4+"
PER HOUR RANGE IN THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS AND WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND OTHER
VULNERABLE AREAS (LOW-LYING SPOTS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE). THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR THE FLOODING OF STRUCTURES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
TYPICAL VULNERABLE AREAS. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THAT STORM SURGE
IN THE BAYS COULD LIMIT THE DRAINAGE OF RAINFALL, WHICH MEANS THAT
ANY FLOODWATER COULD LINGER LONGER THAN NORMAL. EXPECT HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING.
SOMETHING WORTH MENTIONING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHARP RAINFALL
GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE. A LOT OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON EASTERN MISSISSIPPI SEEING AN INCH OR
LESS OF RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. ANOTHER NOTE FOR ISAIAS'
SPEED MEANS THAT RAINFALL QUICKLY TAPERS OFF SATURDAY MORNING.
TORNADO IMPACTS
-----------------
THERE REMAINS AN INCREASED RISK FOR TORNADOES BEGINNING THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF ISAIAS. THE GREATEST
TORNADO RISK EXISTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EAST OF PENSACOLA,
AND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE PEAK FOR LOW-LEVEL
SPIN GENERALLY OCCURS BETWEEN 6PM TODAY AND 4AM SATURDAY (GIVE OR
TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO), SO THIS IS THE MAIN WINDOW FOR TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT. WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL WATERSPOUTS COMING
ASHORE AS TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES, IT IS IMPORTANT TO HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS.
COASTAL FLOODING/STORM SURGE/SURF IMPACTS
-----------------------------------------
STORM SURGE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL AND BAY AREAS
WITH PEAK STORM SURGE VALUES OF 3-5 FT FROM COASTAL MISSISSIPPI TO
MOBILE BAY AND 5-7 FT FROM FORT MORGAN EASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT EVEN SMALL WOBBLES IN THE
TRACK COULD IMPACT STORM SURGE INUNDATION, SO WHERE ISAIAS MAKES
LANDFALL WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT. GENERALLY CAN EXPECT THE PEAK STORM
SURGE INUNDATION TO OCCUR JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER. THE
CURRENT FORECAST WOULD BRING THE PEAK SURGE INTO THE BAYS NEAR AND
EAST OF PENSACOLA, BUT SLIGHT WOBBLES IN TRACK CAN GREATLY ALTER
WHICH LOCATIONS SEE THE GREATEST SURGE IMPACTS.
AS FAR AS TIMING GOES, STORM SURGE INUNDATION COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PEAK SURGE OCCURRING TONIGHT. AN IMPORTANT
NOTE IS THAT THIS PEAK IS EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH HIGH TIDE. THIS
STORM SURGE WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FOR COASTAL AREAS OF THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. STRUCTURES/ROADS ALONG THE COAST WILL
LIKELY BECOME INUNDATED FOR MULTIPLE HOURS.
WATER LEVELS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE GOING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT SOME
MINOR INUNDATION MAY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF ISAIAS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL, AS
THIS COULD CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE BAYS AND ON
NORTHERN FACING ISLANDS. THIS IS ALSO HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY
WHERE ISAIAS MAKES LANDFALL IN TERMS OF THE INNER CORE'S PROXIMITY
TO BAYS IN THE AREA.
THERE ALSO REMAINS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG SIDE HIGH SURF. SURF HEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 5-6 FT AND
WILL INCREASE TO 6-7 FT BY DAYBREAK. SURF HEIGHTS RAPIDLY INCREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ISAIAS APPROACHES THE COAST THEN
MAKES LANDFALL WITH SURF HEIGHTS PEAKING AROUND 12-18 FT FOR THE
ALABAMA BEACHES AND 20-25 FT FOR THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MAJOR TO EXTREME BEACH EROSION, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. SURF HEIGHTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON
SATURDAY.
BATISTE/JGC
..EXTENDED PERIOD
A FEW LINGERING BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR
FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
ISAIAS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GULF, AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. REGIONS IN THE WAKE OF ISAIAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. AN
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO FOLLOW ISAIAS AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, NO RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S, OR ABOUT 3
TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, OR
ABOUT 7 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND AND MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG
THE COAST. THESE LOWS ARE ABOUT 3 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT, LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S INLAND AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST. THESE LOWS ARE ABOUT 9 TO 14
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /22
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
AS ISAIAS APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY AND MOVES INLAND
THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND WIND SHEAR, COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS AND IFR TO LOW END
MVFR CIGS/VISBYS WILL IMPACT OPERATIONS. THE IMPACTS WILL INITIALLY
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH TODAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN BANDS WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS OF
20-30 FEET, LOCALLY 30-40 FEET, WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
PRIOR TO LANDFALL LATE THIS EVENING. JGC/98
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
FOR THE RIVERS, BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
AS ISAIAS APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND MOVES INLAND. A
DECENT NORTHERLY PACE WITH THIS STORM WILL HELP TO LIMIT RAINFALL
TOTALS OVERALL, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER.
STILL, LOCAL FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. ALSO, SMALLER, FLASHIER RIVERS AND CREEKS SOUTH OF
I-65 CAN SEE RAPID FILLING THEN FLOODING, WITH FLOOD WARNINGS
ISSUED FOR FLASHIER RIVERS IN OUR COASTAL COUNTIES FROM THE MOBILE
RIVER EAST. ANY SHIFT IN THE TRACK WILL SHIFT THE GREATEST AREA
OF CONCERN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AL AND FL AREAS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY SHIFTING OF THE
TRACK OF ISAIAS, ESPECIALLY WESTWARD. ALSO, WITH THE SHIFTING
WINDS COMING WITH ISAIAS, WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREA NEAR COASTAL
RIVERS FOR ADDED STORM SURGE ADDITION TO RIVER FLOODING
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 76 63 77 61 / 90 90 10 0
PENSACOLA 79 69 79 67 / 100 90 10 0
DESTIN 82 72 81 70 / 100 90 20 10
EVERGREEN 77 60 79 58 / 100 100 20 0
WAYNESBORO 79 59 73 57 / 70 100 40 0
CAMDEN 77 58 76 58 / 90 100 40 0
CRESTVIEW 76 66 79 61 / 100 100 20 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ALZ051.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALZ052>058-060.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALZ056-060.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALZ056-059-060-261>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
STORM SURGE WARNING FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
ALZ265-266.
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ201>206.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
STORM SURGE WARNING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
FLZ202-204-206.
MS...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MSZ067-075-078.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MSZ076-079.
GM...HURRICANE WARNING FOR GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.
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