732
FXUS64 KMOB 200742
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
242 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING SATURDAY.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES SATURDAY FOR THE ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
20.00Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOW A GENERALLY FLAT FLOW AT HIGH LEVELS AS
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES RIDE EASTWARD ATOP THE AREA IN THE
WESTERLIES. LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NOSES WESTWARD ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA INTO THE GULF. VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED CONSIDERING THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WITH PLENTIFUL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PWAT'S 2.0
TO 2.2") IN PLACE. IN COMBINATION WITH FORCED ASCENT FROM
MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE
HIGHEST RANGES OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AT 2000 TO 3000 J/KG
IN THE PRESENCE OF SFC-500MB SHEAR 25KTS OR LESS SUGGEST A SUMMER-
TIME CONVECTIVE REGIME. THAT BEING AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY SATURDAY. STRONGEST STORMS SATURDAY
LIKELY TO CONTAIN HIGH RAIN RATES, POSING A CONTINUATION IN FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL IF STORMS MOVE LITTLE. SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAIN OUTLOOKED FOR ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY. A TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME
DIURNAL MODE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS REFLECT DECREASING COVERAGES
SATURDAY NIGHT.
..SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
CHALLENGING PATTERN OVER THE MEDIUM RANGE. A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH ELONGATED PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONED
OVER GULF. WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE TYPE APPROACH WITH A MODEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS HOLDS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME
DRYING/LOWERING OF PWAT VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WOULD
TRANSLATE TO LOWER POPS THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE. BUT BY THE
LATTER HALF THE WEEK, WILL HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL OF CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS ROLLING SOUTHEAST. THESE SYSTEMS WOULD BE EMBEDDED IN A
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AT BASE OF UPPER TROF, EAST OF
THE MS VALLEY.
HEAT INDICES TREND 102 TO 107 MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THERE ARE
SOME AREAS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES THAT BREAK INTO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 108+. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH FOR HEAT RELATED
PRODUCTS ON LATER FORECASTS.
A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES FOR ALL FLORIDA AND ALABAMA BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
MULTIPLE RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD. MOST IN MINOR FLOOD. A FEW AT
MODERATE TO MAJOR LEVELS. /10
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CEILING WILL REFORM INLAND AREAS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RESUMING BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA IN THE MORNING AND EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND BRIEF LIFR VISIBILITIES IN
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY THEN TURN MORE WESTERLY MID WEEK. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3
FEET. /10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 89 75 88 78 / 80 30 50 0
PENSACOLA 89 78 88 81 / 80 30 40 0
DESTIN 88 78 87 80 / 70 20 30 0
EVERGREEN 86 72 87 75 / 90 20 50 10
WAYNESBORO 86 73 87 75 / 80 20 50 0
CAMDEN 82 71 85 74 / 100 20 60 10
CRESTVIEW 88 73 88 76 / 90 20 40 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page