081
FXUS64 KMOB 051137
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
637 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 634 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- HEAT INDICES WILL TREND UPWARD THROUGH MID WEEK, REACHING
AROUND 100-107 DEGREES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT AREA
BEACHES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THE MOMENT.
/29
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH GEORGIA WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING NORTHWARD TODAY, EVENTUALLY BECOMING
ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE
THE AREA UNDER A WEAK STEERING FLOW REGIME TODAY AS WE ARE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE
MONSOON RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE
SEA BREEZE TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS (15-35%)
ARE FORECAST GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR,
WHERE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS MOST LIKELY TO LEAD TO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 700 MB THAT SUBDUED ANY
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN,
POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
LINGERING DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB AND DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500
J/KG IN SPOTS, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S TODAY, WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
BRINGING HEAT INDEX VALUES BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS (100-104
RANGE) IN SOME SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME
BECOMES ESTABLISHED AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH EXPANDS WESTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD WHILE ALLOWING THE SEA BREEZE TO ADVANCE INLAND
EACH AFTERNOON. THE MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION CONTINUES TO
LIFT/WEAKEN THURSDAY AND SHOULD ERODE COMPLETELY BY FRIDAY,
SUPPORTING GREATER LIGHTNING POTENTIAL WITH ANY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 20-40% RANGE EACH
DAY, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT ON WHERE THE GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY DUE TO PERIODIC BANDS OF HIGHER AND
LOWER PWATS PUSHING THROUGH. PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL
CONTINUE TRENDING UPWARD, GENERALLY RANGING FROM 100-107 DEGREES
STARTING THURSDAY, AND POTENTIALLY REACHING 108-110 IN A FEW
SPOTS BY SATURDAY.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE, WITH POPS INCREASING INTO THE 40-60% RANGE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY FOR MOST AREAS. RAIN CHANCES MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE BY TUESDAY
AS THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME EXITS THE AREA, LEAVING A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN ITS WAKE. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE 100-107 RANGE.
BEACH FORECAST... A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS AT AREA BEACHES
TODAY AND THURSDAY. AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS LATE IN THE WEEK, A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. JGC/98
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. A SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS DEVELOPS TODAY THEN BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
GENERAL WESTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY. AN EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY THEN BECOMES PREDOMINATELY
SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 93 73 92 73 / 20 10 30 0
PENSACOLA 91 77 90 77 / 20 10 10 10
DESTIN 90 79 89 78 / 10 0 10 10
EVERGREEN 93 72 93 71 / 10 10 10 10
WAYNESBORO 97 73 96 70 / 0 10 30 10
CAMDEN 91 73 91 73 / 0 0 20 10
CRESTVIEW 93 72 93 72 / 30 0 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page