776
FXUS64 KMOB 251652
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1152 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE
WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
- FOG DEVELOPMENT, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE DENSE, IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
- A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS
COMING WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE MARINE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO BREAK
UP AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT EXITS THE LOCAL AREA. AFTER ITS PASSAGE,
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST US BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND
BUILD EASTWARD. STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS RIDGE, ALONG WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE, WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE GET TO
FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS INCREASING FROM THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S TODAY TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVERHEAD, PLENTY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE (DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S), AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AT NIGHT,
FOG DEVELOPMENT, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE DENSE, IS LOOKING MORE AND
MORE LIKELY FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE OVER COASTAL COUNTIES AND UP INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BECOME NEEDED
FOR TONIGHT.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD, LIKELY PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SOMETIME
SATURDAY MORNING. NO RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FRONT DUE TO A
LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. BEHIND IT, A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO OUR NORTH
AND QUICKLY PUSHES EASTWARD. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM
BACK UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC, ALLOWING FOR ONSHORE WINDS RETURN. A LOW RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY, QUICKLY INCREASING TO A HIGH
RISK ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT ONSHORE. /96
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL DROP DOWN TO IFR TO
LIFR AS PATCHY, LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOP. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW TODAY DIMINISHES TO A LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW THURSDAY, BECOMING A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING A MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MM/25
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
VERY DRY FUELS AND A LACK OF RAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. 20FT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE NEED FOR ANY
RFWS. THE WILD CARD IS A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST, AND
MOVING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLY CAUSING ISSUES OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 79 60 81 60 / 10 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 72 61 77 63 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 72 61 74 63 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 79 55 85 57 / 10 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 82 59 84 60 / 10 0 0 0
CAMDEN 78 57 82 58 / 10 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 78 55 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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