832
FXUS64 KMOB 171749
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1149 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1149 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREA BEACHES
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- SOME STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY.
- MODERATE TO STRONG MARINE WINDS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
A MODEST UPPER TROF ORIENTED FROM NEAR THE ARKLATEX DOWN TO ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST SLOWLY ADVANCES EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE A
LARGE UPPER TROF EVOLVES OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. THE MODEST UPPER
TROF BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE LARGE UPPER TROF WHICH AMPLIFIES
WHILE CONTINUING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL OFF TO THE NORTH AND BRINGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. MLCAPE
VALUES OF AROUND 500 J/KG ARE ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY TO SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF, AND MAY REACH UP TO 1000 J/KG NEAR THE COAST FROM
MID MORNING THURSDAY THROUGH MID EVENING. AN 850 MB JET AROUND 30
KNOTS PROVIDES FOR ENOUGH FAVORABLE SHEAR TO BE A CONCERN, BUT
DEEP LAYER LIFT MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR. THAT SAID, CAMS FAVOR
THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES FROM MID MORNING THURSDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH LINES
UP WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY IN THIS PORTION
AND APPEARS THE BE THE PERIOD OF INTEREST. WILL MENTION IN THE
KEY MESSAGES THAT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN MAY SEE SOME
SPOTTY ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS SOME MODEST SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY
CONDITIONS THEN FOLLOW FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MOSTLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT
BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN A HIGH RISK FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. /29
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, THEN IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI TO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN LIMITED COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
EASTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISH THIS EVENING,
THEN AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS FOLLOWS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
DIMINISHES ON FRIDAY THEN BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BECOME
NECESSARY MAINLY FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 56 70 47 61 / 60 90 40 0
PENSACOLA 59 68 51 61 / 40 90 50 0
DESTIN 58 68 52 64 / 30 90 60 0
EVERGREEN 48 68 44 60 / 40 90 60 0
WAYNESBORO 50 68 41 57 / 50 70 50 0
CAMDEN 48 65 41 55 / 40 90 70 0
CRESTVIEW 50 68 47 61 / 30 90 60 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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