348
FXUS64 KMOB 250809
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
309 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY TO
DAMAGING WINDS, ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE, WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THIS
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE AT
03AM/08Z CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER MISSISSIPPI TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OVER A BAND OF GOOD
INSTABILITY OVER MISSISSIPPI. BOWING SEGMENTS AND TRANSIENT MESOES
HAVE BEEN IN EVIDENCE. SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS HAVE REPORTED WINDS
GUSTING TO 35-40KTS. CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY
WATCH/WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE.
/16
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
AN INTERESTING PATTERN HAS COME TO FRUITION, WITH A PAIR OF MCS'S
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST MCS HAS BEEN WEAKENING WHILE
PROGRESSING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THIS CONVECTION HAS FORMED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR NEW AUGUSTA, MS TO GREENVILLE, AL, AND THIS
BOUNDARY IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION. CONVECTION WITH THE SECOND MCS IS ANTICIPATED TO
MANIFEST AS A LINE OF STORMS WHICH ADVANCES INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT, WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HELPING TO
STEER THIS CONVECTION ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND PART
OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
CONTINUING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN PLACE AS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SECOND MCS MOVES THROUGH WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 55
KNOTS. 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES LOOK TO BE 50-100 M2/S2, SO AM
ANTICIPATING THAT THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS, WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH. SPC CURRENTLY HAS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA (TO THE ALABAMA RIVER) IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
A SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BRING
A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE PROXIMITY, IT'S NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH OF
A LINGERING EFFECT THE SECOND MCS WILL HAVE ON THE ABILITY FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. PER COORDINATION, HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA
FOR NOW. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT TO NEAR
THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MEANDERS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
ON SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE PLAINS MEANWHILE THEN LIFTS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH
TUESDAY AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT TO NEAR NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY DUE AN UPPER RIDGE
BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES TO THE
NORTHEAST STATES AND PUSHES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
CHANCE POPS FOLLOWING FOR FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS
TO RETURN NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT. AS NOTED BY
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM TUESDAY ONWARD BASED ON CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOSTLY AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-65
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
ADVANCING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND
PART OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
OCCUR DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. OUTSIDE
OF THE STORMS, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 82 65 85 66 / 80 20 40 20
PENSACOLA 80 67 83 67 / 70 30 30 20
DESTIN 78 68 81 68 / 50 40 30 20
EVERGREEN 84 61 85 61 / 60 40 30 20
WAYNESBORO 83 62 83 63 / 80 30 50 20
CAMDEN 81 61 82 61 / 70 40 30 20
CRESTVIEW 84 62 88 61 / 60 40 30 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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