530
FXUS64 KMOB 131129 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
629 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2020
AVIATION
12Z ISSUANCE...ISOLATED TO POTENTIALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WHICH LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE COAST BEFORE ENDING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY, EXCEPT
BECOMING SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST. /29
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 427 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2020/
NEAR TERM UPDATE /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...AN UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES FINALLY MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN RESPONSE, AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE MEXICO/U.S. BORDER
INTO THE WESTERN GULF EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES, ALTHOUGH IT WAS NOTED THAT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE THIS EASTWARD
EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A COMBINATION OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROF/FRONT AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT'S CONVECTION RESULTS IN A PREDOMINATELY LIGHT NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY EXCEPT FOR BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR THE COAST AS A WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. A LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS TONIGHT
THEN AGAIN BECOMES SOUTHERLY NEAR THE COAST ON TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT ABOVE 750 MB TODAY WHICH
RESULTS IN WET BULB ZERO VALUES NEAR 10-11 KFT. SIMILAR VALUES WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHILE
FURTHER TO THE WEST WILL SEE IMPROVING MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
CONSIDERING THIS, AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY, ALTHOUGH THIS IS
OFFSET BY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKING TO BE MOSTLY ISOLATED. AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS EACH DAY,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA WHERE THE WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S AND HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S
AT THE COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 90S, AND
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. /29
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO EXPAND FURTHER EAST
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE EAST
COAST DURING THE SHORT TERM. AS THE MAIN TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST,
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT LAGS AND A WEAK TROUGH/LOW AT 300MB DRIFTS
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS FEATURE
EVENTUALLY GETS PUSHED INTO THE GULF AS THE RIDGE NUDGES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE WITH A GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SHORTWAVES TRAVELING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY
IN THE SHORT TERM. DOWN NEAR THE SURFACE, THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF DURING THE PERIOD.
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO GET DRAGGED
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION SOMEWHAT ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OF STORMS OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHERE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARE LOCATED.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO LOW 90S YET AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. THE HEAT INDEX WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 102-106 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW SPOTS NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE RIVER
DELTA RISING TO NEAR 108. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO SOUND LIKE A
BROKEN RECORD, AS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
FALLING INTO THE MID TO LOW 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT
THE BEACHES ON BOTH NIGHTS. 07/MB
EXTENDED TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...NORTHEAST TO EAST MID
LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE EXTENDED TERM PERIOD, BUT BECOMING
MORE PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A MID
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK FLOW
PATTERN. THE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WITH THE
DAILY SEA/LAND BREEZE CYCLE AND AFTERNOON HEATING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND THE 40
TO 60 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PASS OVER
THE AREA AND ACT ON A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE NEAR THE COAST EACH LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN FARTHER INLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE MID 90S
INLAND AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST, WITH HEAT INDICES REMAINING IN
THE 100 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MID 70S
OVER THE INTERIOR AND IN THE UPPER 70S NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST EACH
NIGHT. /13/12
MARINE...NO IMPACTS ARE FORECAST EXCEPT WINDS AND WAVES HIGHER NEAR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. /29
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ALZ261>266.
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ075-076-078-079.
GM...NONE.
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