921
FXUS64 KMOB 230947 CCA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
FOR LOCAL AREA BEACHES.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE ALABAMA
RIVER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
WITH SURF HEIGHTS REMAINING ON THE HIGHER SIDE WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW, HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH RIP RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALSO, THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHIFTING OF THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH ADJUSTMENT TO THE MARGINAL
ON THE EAST SIDE. THIS MARGINAL NOW INCLUDES COUNTIES WEST OF THE
ALABAMA RIVER. GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES RISING INTO THE
2000-2500J/KG RANGE) IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MODEST SHEAR
(BULK WIND SHEAR AROUND 30KTS), WILL ALLOW A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO FORM, WITH WIND DAMAGE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ALSO, WITH
GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7.0C-8.5C), LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.
/16
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
IF YOU BLINKED YOU MISSED THE RARE OCCURRENCE OF ACTUAL RAIN
HAPPENING EARLIER TODAY. FEAR NOT, HOWEVER, AS ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES ARE ON THE HORIZON. WE HAVE A COUPLE DRIER DAYS TO GET
PAST FIRST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES STARTING TO
TIC UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME, THE ONLY HIGH IMPACT WE HAVE RIGHT NOW IS STRONG,
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A HIGH RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
I MENTIONED BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE HORIZON SO HERE'S SOME
GOOD NEWS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRANSIT OR SKIRT NORTH OF THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
DAY FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
ODDS OF SEEING RAIN WILL BE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
NEAR AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 SATURDAY, BUT EVEN AREAS DOWN
TOWARDS THE COAST SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ON HOW THE UPPER PATTERN EVOLVES. FORCING TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND STORMS REMAINS QUESTIONABLE MONDAY AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRY AND KEEP A BULK OF THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS
NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THIS, THERE WILL BE AN ADEQUATE CAPE
AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE SUCH THAT IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP,
IT COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. FOR NOW, IT REMAINS SOMETHING TO
WATCH AS WE MOVE FORWARD IN TIME. A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BECOMES A LOW RISK SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. MM/25
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
RISE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS, 10 TO 15 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. WINDS WILL EASE TO
AROUND 5 KNOTS BEGINNING AROUND SUNSET.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW
SHIFTS TO SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 62 82 65 83 / 0 30 30 60
PENSACOLA 66 78 68 80 / 0 20 30 60
DESTIN 66 78 68 79 / 0 20 20 60
EVERGREEN 56 85 60 84 / 0 30 30 80
WAYNESBORO 59 83 63 82 / 0 40 50 70
CAMDEN 57 83 62 80 / 0 40 50 80
CRESTVIEW 57 84 61 84 / 0 20 20 70
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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