099
FXUS64 KMOB 141806
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
106 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK IS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF BY LATE
TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE WEEK.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A 20% CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A 30% CHANCE
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF HOW MUCH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS,
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY, WITH MOSTLY CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY RANGE
FROM NEAR 1 INCH WELL INLAND TO AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR THE COAST,
AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS
PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. LIKELY POPS
PREVAIL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM. IN THE NEAR TERM, ANOTHER CONCERN WILL
BE HEAT INDEX VALUES ON TUESDAY WHICH LOOK TO MOSTLY TOP OUT
BETWEEN 102 AND 107, WITH THE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA AND JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108). FOR
NOW, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THAT A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN A MODERATE RISK
FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /29
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH
TUESDAY. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY THEN BECOMES
SOUTHERLY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, POTENTIALLY A
TROPICAL SYSTEM, MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK AND
BRING STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 75 96 75 93 73 88 75 88 / 10 30 30 80 60 90 50 90
PENSACOLA 78 96 78 92 77 88 78 89 / 10 40 50 90 60 90 50 80
DESTIN 81 96 80 91 79 89 80 90 / 20 50 60 90 60 90 50 80
EVERGREEN 73 98 74 95 73 91 73 91 / 10 30 30 80 30 80 20 80
WAYNESBORO 73 97 74 96 73 91 72 90 / 10 20 10 60 30 80 20 80
CAMDEN 74 96 74 94 74 90 72 90 / 10 20 20 60 30 80 20 70
CRESTVIEW 75 98 74 93 73 90 74 90 / 10 50 40 90 40 90 30 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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