326
FXUS64 KMOB 251453
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
953 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
- INCREASING CONCERN FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY FOR
COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASE THIS MORNING THAT NEARLY ALL
OUR WARNING AREA WILL EXPERIENCE PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL QPF OUTPUTS AND THE LATEST WPC QPF. KMOB
RADAR IS DETECTING THAT THE MORE ROBUST DEEPER CONVECTION MOVING
UP FROM THE GULF HAS RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR.
THEREFORE, WE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR ZONES
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. /22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
CONVECTION OVER THE GULF HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF OUR ATTENTION THIS
EVENING WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS JUST NOW REACHING THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS SITTING 50+
NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE AND LOOKS TO SLIDE GENERALLY NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, LIKELY APPROACHING THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES BY ROUGHLY 09Z. THERE'S BEEN A SIGNAL IN SEVERAL OF
THE CAMS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THAT CONVECTION WILL ALSO LIKELY
BEGIN FLARING UP SOMEWHERE WEST OF I-65 (ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES) BETWEEN ROUGHLY 09-12Z WITH THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND SLIDING INTO THE REGION BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS ON MEMORIAL DAY, HOWEVER,
FLOODING IS THE BIGGER CONCERN. THE RECENT 00Z HREF PROBABILITY-
MATCHED MEAN (PMM) FOR QPF SHOWS A FEW BULLSEYES OF OF 4- 7 INCHES
OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE BULLSEYES
HAVE SHIFTED RUN-TO-RUN, BUT THERE'S A GENERAL TREND THAT
SOMEWHERE WEST OF I-65 COULD EASILY RACK UP 3+ INCHES OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHERMORE, THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE COMING DAYS REMAINS
FLOODING. WHILE WE DON'T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES, WE
DO ANTICIPATE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE RAINFALL RATES ALONG WITH
THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS (SLOWER STORMS OR STORMS THAT
REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC).
STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL EASILY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. GIVEN THE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON FRIDAY IN CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY AND THE
VERY SATURATED SOILS, THAT AREA IN PARTICULAR WILL BE HIGHLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IN THE COMING DAYS.
A WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE SITTING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. DEEP ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS WITH PWATS SURGING TO OVER
2.0 INCHES AT TIMES THIS WEEK. MULTIPLE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL
RIDE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, PROVIDING AMPLE ASCENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HEAVY RAIN
IS THE PREDOMINANT CONCERN, ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS
EACH AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, WE ARE HOLDING OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE THESE STORMS MIGHT SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, A WATCH COULD BE ON THE TABLE AT SOME
POINT IF OUR CONFIDENCE IN LOCATIONS INCREASES (AS WE DON'T WANT
TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WHEN SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT
RAIN MUCH AT ALL).
BEACH FORECAST - GIVEN THE CONSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SIGNAL OVER THE
COMING DAYS, THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH FOR THE
MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY THROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY FOR THE
COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES. OFFSHORE STORMS
WILL ONLY ACT TO AMPLIFY THE SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EACH DAY. 07/MB
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN PREVALENT AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO
LIFR ARE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH THE HEAVIEST STORMS. WINDS REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3 FEET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 81 71 82 72 / 90 70 90 40
PENSACOLA 82 73 82 74 / 90 70 90 30
DESTIN 82 74 83 74 / 90 60 80 30
EVERGREEN 80 69 81 70 / 100 60 100 20
WAYNESBORO 80 69 80 70 / 100 60 100 40
CAMDEN 79 68 79 69 / 90 60 100 30
CRESTVIEW 82 70 84 70 / 90 60 80 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...NONE.
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