955
FXUS64 KMOB 080405
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1005 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1000 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY FOR MOST OF
THE MARINE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OPEN GULF
WATERS.
- THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS LOWS FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE 20'S TO LOWER 30'S.
- DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT, VERY DRY WEATHER, AND
FORECAST STRONG WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, BRINGING WITH IT A POWERFUL COLD FRONT AND THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. STRONG WINDS FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT
PRESENTING MARINE HAZARDS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
TODAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE
AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
DRY WEATHER SETTLES INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
OUR COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DROP SUBSTANTIALLY INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30'S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30'S NEARER THE COAST. MONDAY WILL FEATURE OUR
COLDEST DAY OF THE SEASON AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 50 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR MOST OF THE
INTERIOR TO REMAIN LOCKED INTO THE UPPER 40'S. NEARER THE COAST A
FEW SPOTS MAY MANAGE TO BREAK INTO THE LOWER 50'S. TO PUT THIS
COLD INTO PERSPECTIVE, THESE HIGHS ARE CLOSER TO WHAT WE WOULD
TYPICALLY EXPECT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE
AVERAGE LOW AT KMOB BEING 50 DEGREES AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
MONDAY BEING 52 DEGREES. AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY NIGHT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN, WITH CALMING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN IDEALIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING
SETUP THAT WILL SEND NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BELOW
FREEZING, PERHAPS WELL BELOW FREEZING OVER THE INTERIOR. EXPECT
LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 23 TO 27 RANGE OVER INTERIOR AREAS, WITH 27
TO 32 ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES. EVEN SOME OF OUR BEACHES MAY FLIRT
WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30'S. ONLY SPOTS THAT ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WILL BE THE MORE PROTECTED AREAS SUCH AS DAUPHIN ISLAND
AND DESTIN.
TUESDAY WARMS INTO THE UPPER 50'S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30'S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, PERHAPS EVEN A FEW LOWER 40'S MAKING THEIR WAY BACK
INTO COASTAL COUNTIES. WE GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 70'S
ONCE AGAIN AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40'S OVER THE INTERIOR
AND UPPER 40'S TO LOWER 50'S NEARER THE COAST. A LOW RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ONE MORE HAZARD TO DISCUSS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. 20 FOOT WINDS ALSO
APPROACH SIMILAR VALUES WITH SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS CLOSING IN ON
15 TO 20 MPH. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIP TO
NEAR 25 PERCENT MONDAY. FUELS REMAIN VERY DRY GIVEN THE ONGOING
DROUGHT, AND COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS
DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST MONDAY AND A RED FLAG
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WINDS RELAX
TUESDAY, BUT THE VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WHICH MAY STILL
RESULT IN SOME INCREASED FIRE DANGER. MM/25
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY SETTLING INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING, WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CEILINGS BEING OBSERVED IN A FEW
SPOTS. WHILE A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT
CATEGORY RESTRICTION, LOCALIZED PATCHES OF FOG COULD RESULT IN IFR
TO LIFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH DAYBREAK. FLIGHT CATEGORY IMPROVES
BACK TO VFR BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO BE
OUT OF THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS THE
REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
A LIGHT WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS TODAY. A MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT FOR ALL MARINE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN GULF
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX
AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 78 62 80 62 / 30 10 0 20
PENSACOLA 78 67 78 66 / 40 30 0 20
DESTIN 77 67 78 67 / 30 40 10 20
EVERGREEN 79 61 81 59 / 40 30 10 30
WAYNESBORO 76 60 79 57 / 40 10 10 30
CAMDEN 76 61 78 57 / 40 30 10 30
CRESTVIEW 78 62 81 60 / 30 30 10 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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