847
FXUS64 KMOB 082331
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
531 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
- THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF I-65 FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN
ALABAMA.
- DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY NEAR
AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. DENSE MARINE FOG POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
A RATHER ACTIVE 48 HOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA. MULTIPLE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INCLUDING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL US AND AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER FLORIDA AMPLIFYING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD AS FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A LIFTING
BOUNDARY/CONFLUENCE ZONE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. STORMS
WILL LIKELY TRAIN ACROSS THIS ZONE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A PAIR OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE BROADER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE EXACT LOCATION OF
WHERE THIS BAND SETS UP WILL DETERMINE 1. HOW MUCH RAIN WE COULD
SEE AND 2. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IF THE RIDGE IS A BIT
STRONGER AND THIS BAND SETS UP FURTHER NORTHWEST THEN OUR AREA
MAY REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BOTH THE FLOODING
RAIN THREAT AND SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LIMITED AT BEST. HOWEVER,
IF THIS BAND SETS UP OVER OUR AREA OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
THEN BOTH SEVERE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN TREND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BY FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
FINALLY EJECT EASTWARD WHICH WILL SLOWLY START TO PUSH THE FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA ALLOWING FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO PROGRESS FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY.
SEVERE...THIS SEVERE THREAT IS A RATHER TRICKY AND ONE THAT ISN'T
SCREAMING WIDESPREAD SEVERE. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE THE
AFOREMENTIONED BAND OF STORMS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. FORCING WILL BE RATHER WEAK AS HEIGHT FALLS ARE
RATHER WEAK AND WE WILL BE RELYING ON RATHER WEAK DIFFLUENCE AND
WARM ADVECTION. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT LIFT WILL BE RATHER POOR
RATHER THAN VIGOROUS WHICH MEANS WE WILL HAVE TO RELY HEAVILY ON
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO GET DEEPER THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE WE
SHOULD SEE SOME DAYTIME HEATING ON SATURDAY, A SUBTLE CAPPING
INVERSION (LID ON THE ATMOSPHERE) WILL LIKELY INHIBIT STRONGER
INSTABILITY LIKELY KEEPING THINGS MOSTLY IN CHECK. HOWEVER, WHAT
INSTABILITY THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 3
OR 4 KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND WITH HODOGRAPHS HIGHLY CURVED WITH
WEAK STORM RELATIVE INFLOWS, MINI-SPINNIES WOULD BE PROMINENT IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT AND WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN. THE OTHER
QUESTION WILL BE IF THIS BAND ACTUALLY STAYS IN OUR AREA. IF THE
BAND LIFTS NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON OR STAYS WEST OF OUR AREA THAN
OUR SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH. NONETHELESS, THE CONCERN
WILL BE FOR A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO
POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES. IF INSTABILITY INCREASES THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO INTERIOR
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM MAY PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY
STORMS MAY STRUGGLE OVERNIGHT UNLESS THE FORM CLOSER TO THE COAST
WHERE INSTABILITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVERNIGHT.
THE SECOND ROUND OF STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER DURING THIS
PERIOD, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER AND THE BEST UPPER
FORCING/LIFT MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE
A PERIOD DURING THIS TIME WHERE INSTABILITY BY MIDDAY SHOULD
INCREASE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. WHILE THIS
THREAT IS RATHER MARGINAL THERE IS ENOUGH THERE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF I-65 AROUND NOON
BEFORE STORMS EXIT THE AREA.
HEAVY RAINFALL...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST
CONCERN IS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA WHERE THAT CONFLUENCE BAND SETS UP OVERNIGHT.
IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO FOR ALONG THAT BOUNDARY, STORMS WILL LIKELY
TRAIN OVER THE SAME SPOTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS YIELDING RAINFALL
TOTALS LOCALLY INCREASING. CURRENT HREF LPMMS ARE IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER MAXES NEARING
6 TO 8 INCHES. LUCKILY FOR OUR AREA WE CAN HANDLE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL. GIVEN PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND RELATIVELY MODEST
INSTABILITY, RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY FLOAT AROUND 1.5 TO 2
INCHES IN THE STRONGEST OF STORMS WHICH WOULD BE BELOW OUR 1 HOURS
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. THE FLOODING RAIN THREAT IS ALSO DEPENDENT
ON THE BOUNDARY ACTUALLY SETTING UP ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND
GUIDANCE IS RATHER QUESTIONABLE ON IF THIS WILL HAPPEN. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION AND THE OVERALL ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
THREAT WE ARE NOT CONFIDENCE ENOUGH IN FLOODING TO WARRANT A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. WOULD WE BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING OR TWO OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, NO. HOWEVER, WE PREFER TO
RESERVE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SITUATIONS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. IF GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SUPPORT A
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OR A MORE WIDESPREAD
THREAT THEN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD LIKELY BE ISSUED WITH A
LATER PACKAGE.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET AS COOL POLAR AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THINGS COOL AND
DRY. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, A RATHER WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL PHASE WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US
BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP TO THE AREA. LUCKILY
THIS WILL BE JUST A SHOT OF COLD DREARY RAIN BEFORE DRYING OUT
ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE
50S FOR HIGHS AND 20S AND 30S FOR LOWS. BB/8
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
AN IFR/LIFR CEILING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH
LOCALIZED VLIFR CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO MVFR FRIDAY MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS
OR LESS THIS EVENING, THEN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10
KNOTS FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. DENSE MARINE
FOG POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT, THEN DIMINISHES ON MONDAY. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
BB/8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 65 77 65 74 / 10 50 60 90
PENSACOLA 65 76 67 75 / 10 10 40 90
DESTIN 63 73 65 73 / 0 10 30 80
EVERGREEN 62 79 65 75 / 0 30 50 100
WAYNESBORO 65 75 63 72 / 40 80 90 90
CAMDEN 63 77 64 72 / 10 60 70 100
CRESTVIEW 60 78 64 77 / 0 10 30 90
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ634>636-655.
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