242
FXUS64 KMOB 162307
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
507 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
- A MIX OF RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL MID SUNDAY MORNING.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT AS WIND
CHILLS FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...
TAKING A LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE, A SERIES OF LOBES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SWIRL AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A FIRST PASSING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LOW TODAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER OUR OFFSHORE ZONES OR A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH BY SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONGER LOBE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST NORTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT, WITH GENERAL COVERAGE BEING SOUTH OF I-20. BY MONDAY,
A SHALLOW UPPER TROUGH HAS SET UP OVER MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THE
COMING WEEK.
TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE HAPPENINGS OVER THE FORECAST AREA,
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS A CHALLENGE, WITH WISH-WASHY
INTERPRETATIONS IN THE GUIDANCE LEADING TO DIFFERING RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND COVERAGE, MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AM EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT, WITH COOLER, BUT WELL ABOVE
FREEZING, AIR MOVING OVER THE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOW, WITH THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
NEARBY BEING DRY. AS THE SECOND UPPER SHORTWAVE AND FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA, INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION SETS UP
OVER THE AREA, WITH COVERAGE LIMITED BY HOW MUCH DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR MOVES SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA, ALONG WITH HOW MUCH
MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND HOW FAST WITH THE SECOND
REINFORCING FRONT, AND WHERE THE PREVIOUS FRONT HAS STALLED. BEST
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION MIXED IN WITH THE
LIQUID PRECIPITATION ARE TWO ITEMS THAT ARE CONSISTENT, WITH
PLACEMENT BEING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PERRY COUNTY TO WILCOX COUNTY
LINE, AND BEGINNING SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. AMOUNTS THAT
HIT THE GROUND VARY, WITH VARYING STRENGTH OF THE UPGLIDE, ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANYWHERES FROM SEVERAL
INCHES TO NOTHING AT ALL IS ADVERTISED BY THE GUIDANCE. CONSENSUS IS
LESS THAN 0.10" OVER MOST OF THE AREA WHERE IT FALLS, WITH UP TO
0.25" OVER THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACCUMULATION ON
THE GROUND WILL VARY, WITH THE GROUND, ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES SEEING
TOO MUCH ABOVE FREEZING TIME SATURDAY (WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT IN THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER TO LOW 60S
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR COASTAL AREAS). ELEVATED SURFACE MAY
SEE A BIT OF AN ACCUMULATION. TOO SOON FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY TO
BE ISSUED, SO AM HOLDING OFF. NOT TO FORGET, TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FIRST 5 PERIODS OF THE FORECAST SEE A DROP, WITH THE AFORE MENTIONED
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
FOR SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 40 TO AROUND 50
TONIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER TO
LOW/MID 30S SOUTHEAST OF I-65 SATURDAY NIGHT, BEFORE DROPPING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS
MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT.
FOR THE COMING WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY, KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO MID WEEK, WHEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST, SHIFTS THE SURFACE HIGH
EAST AND RETURNS ONSHORE FLOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
INCREASE FROM WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS MONDAY TO ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS BY MID WEEK, WITH RAIN RETURNING FOR THURSDAY.
WITH GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST, THE RIP CURRENT
RISK REMAINS LOW TO LOW MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST.
/16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS
THIS EVENING, THEN SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF
I-65 WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF I-65. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF I-65 THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 123 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER AREA WATERS TONIGHT, WITH A
SECOND MOVING OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO AREA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER AREA WATERS LATER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
LIGHTER, MORE VARIABLE FLOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. MODERATE
TO AT TIMES STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES OVER AREA WATERS.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 47 57 33 49 / 30 30 30 10
PENSACOLA 51 59 36 48 / 30 40 60 20
DESTIN 53 64 36 49 / 30 50 80 30
EVERGREEN 43 56 30 48 / 30 30 40 10
WAYNESBORO 41 52 28 45 / 70 20 10 0
CAMDEN 42 53 29 44 / 50 30 20 10
CRESTVIEW 46 60 32 48 / 20 40 70 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ630-631-633>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ632-650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ670-675.
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