141
FXUS64 KMOB 031832
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1232 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. FOG COULD BECOME DENSE
IN SPOTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS INTO MID
WEEK, THEN SHIFTS EAST, BECOMING AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN BY THE COMING WEEKEND. A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
WEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE, BRINGING A MORE
ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. STRONGEST ONSHORE
FLOW IS INDICATED TO BE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RETURN IS INDICATED TO BE LIMITED OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EVEN THEN, DEEP LAYER PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 1.1"-1.3" RANGE IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MOISTURE RETURN BELOW
10K', SO NIGHTLY FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPING, WITH THE
STRONGER FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE LEADING TO A STRUGGLE BETWEEN
STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE INFLUX OF
DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, BRINGING RAIN BACK TO MAINLY
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK, THE CARIBBEAN UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST, STALLING BETWEEN
THE I-20 AND I-10 CORRIDORS. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING MOISTURE
LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 1.5"-1.7" FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION, MAINLY OVER NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH INSTABILITY ON THE
INCREASE, MORE RUMBLERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE UPTICK IN
CONVECTION. WIND SHEAR AT ALL LEVELS REMAINS BEST WELL WEST AND
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME, ENOUGH INSTABILITY NOR
WIND SHEAR FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS NOT INDICATED, BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR, ESPECIALLY IF WINDS INCREASE.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. A DROP IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES OCCURS IN THE COMING WEEK AS THE SUBSIDENCE EASES A
BUT, BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 TONIGHT RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR THE WEEKEND.
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING ONSHORE SWELL WILL BE COUNTER
BALANCED BY A DECREASING TIDAL CYCLE THROUGH MID WEEK, KEEPING THE
RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT A LOW TO MODERATE LEVEL THIS WEEK.
AS THE TIDAL CYCLE BEGINS TO INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK THOUGH
THE WEEKEND, THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS RISES TO MODERATE TO HIGH IN
RESPONSE.
/16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS RETURNING AFTER
SUNSET, SPREADING INLAND FROM THE COAST. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH MAY BECOME DENSE IN
SPOTS. GREATEST COVERAGE OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
OVER COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, BUT CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN AT IFR
LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
RETURN BY LATE MORNING AND THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10-15 KNOTS TODAY, DECREASING TO A LIGHT
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. JGC/MM
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING
A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW TO AREA WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SURFACE FRONT MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK WILL DISRUPT THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST, EASING THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER AREA
WATERS TO A MORE GENERAL LIGHT.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 57 79 60 79 / 0 0 0 20
PENSACOLA 58 74 62 75 / 0 0 0 10
DESTIN 59 72 61 72 / 0 0 0 10
EVERGREEN 53 83 57 82 / 0 0 0 20
WAYNESBORO 57 82 59 82 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN 55 82 57 82 / 0 0 0 20
CRESTVIEW 53 81 57 80 / 0 0 0 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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