036
FXUS64 KMOB 041730
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANY STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL, WITH ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS OVER THE MARINE WATERS
EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY FROM THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THROUGH MID-
MORNING.
- PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 100-107 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
A UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WEAKENS BY THIS
EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST AND CENTERS ITSELF OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SAME TIME, THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US DEEPENS AND DIGS
INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST. BEGINNING NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THEN ADVANCES EAST AND WE END UP
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WITH EASTERLY FLOW.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN CLOSE TO FULLY SATURATED. WE HAVE DEEP EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THANKS TO THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF AND A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW FUNNELING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. PWATS HAVE INCREASED QUITE HIGH TO 2.3-2.5". IN FACT THE
LATEST 12Z LIX SOUNDING SHOWS 2.46" WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF 2.13" BASED ON SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OF 2+ INCH PWATS PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY.
THE ACTIVITY FROM THE MARINE WATERS THIS MORNING DRIFTS NORTH AND IS
ACTING AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE SEABREEZE. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH SUCH ENHANCED MOISTURE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WHICH CARRY A WATERSPOUT
RISK. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD COME THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH THE
TROUGHING COMING DOWN THE EAST COAST AND THE RIDGE RETROGRADING. WE
WILL HAVE GOOD INSTABILITY, SLIGHTLY INCREASED SHEAR WITH THE TROUGH
CLOSER, AND OF COURSE PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD IT REACH OUR AREA.
ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLOODING
POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS AND LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
90S WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD GENERALLY IN
THE LOW 70S INLAND AND THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDEX
VALUES LOOK TO CONTINUE TO BE JUST BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD
OF 108 FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH MAXIMUM VALUES OF
100-107 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EACH DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES BRING SOME
OVERNIGHT RELIEF WITH VALUES IN THE LOW 70S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WITH MID 70S JUST ALONG THE COAST.
..BEACH FORECAST
THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW FOR ALL AREA BEACHES IN
FLORIDA AND ALABAMA. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, SURF HEIGHTS REMAIN
GENERALLY 1 TO POTENTIALLY 2 FEET THROUGH THE MID NEXT WEEK.
SS/97
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE REDEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
A GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WESTERLY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. A FEW WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. SS/97
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 73 90 73 91 / 30 50 10 50
PENSACOLA 77 89 76 90 / 20 50 20 50
DESTIN 78 87 78 89 / 20 40 20 40
EVERGREEN 72 93 70 95 / 10 50 20 50
WAYNESBORO 72 93 71 95 / 20 50 20 50
CAMDEN 73 93 73 95 / 20 60 20 50
CRESTVIEW 73 91 73 93 / 20 70 10 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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