428
FXUS64 KMOB 192337
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
537 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
- THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER RETURNS TO PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS COMING WEEKEND AS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES IN. FORECAST TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
- IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM, IT IS POSSIBLE FOR VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TO INFILTRATE THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 20'S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
FOR THE TIME BEING WE REMAIN COOL AND DRY, GRADUALLY WARMING UP
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ENTERING
THE PICTURE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
IMPROVE BACK TO THE MIDDLE AND PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 60'S THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
40'S LATE WEEK.
ALL EYES TURN TOWARDS OUR NEXT POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER
SYSTEM AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. A POWERFUL ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
BE INFILTRATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF
COAST STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND AS WARM, MOIST AIR OVERRIDES COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
TRENDS IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAVE
CERTAINLY RAISED SOME EYEBROWS IN REGARDS TO WINTER WEATHER
PROSPECTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA PRIOR TO
PRECIPITATION LEAVING, WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT MOVING IN AFTER PRECIP
HAS COME TO AN END. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO WHERE I
DON'T WANT TO DIVE INTO THE NITTY GRITTY DETAILS ON THINGS, BUT
THERE ARE A FEW NOTES TO PUT IN HERE THAT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING
FOR FORECAST TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS.
THE FIRST NOTE IS WITH RESPECT TO THE POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT. IN
MANY CASES, FORECAST GUIDANCE AT THIS RANGE CAN STRUGGLE WITH
BEING TOO SLOW ON THE SPEED OF ARCTIC FRONTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE
WORKING THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE U.S., WHICH COULD END UP
BEING THE CASE HERE AND IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR MOVING FORWARD. WE
HAVE ALREADY SEEN THIS BEING DEPICTED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AS
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVAL INTO OUR AREA HAS MOVED FORWARD IN
TIME. THE OTHER NOTE IS THAT THIS IS AN OVERRUNNING PRECIP SETUP,
WHICH WE KNOW MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO UNDERESTIMATE THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OWING TO UNDER MODELING THE
AMOUNT OF WARM AIR OVERRIDING THE COOL AIR BELOW. IF THIS IS THE
CASE, I COULD SEE OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS CLIMB AS WE
APPROACH THE "EVENT", WHETHER IT BE RAIN OR WINTER WEATHER.
ONE THING THAT IS OF SOMEWHAT GREATER CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE SETUP
IS IF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WERE TO OCCUR, IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM
OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. THESE SETUPS ARE TYPICALLY VERY
DIFFICULT TO GET ALL SNOW OUT OF, AND GLANCING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM AVAILABLE GUIDANCE REVEALS A VERY PRONOUNCED WARM
LAYER ALOFT TO MELT ANY FALLING SNOW INTO RAIN. THEN SAID RAIN
FREEZES INTO SLEET OR ON CONTACT WITH SURFACES AS IT FALLS INTO
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES THAT DIP BELOW OR WELL BELOW FREEZING.
BOTTOM LINE: WE'RE STILL 5+ DAYS OUT, AND FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL
LIKELY CHANGE IN SOME MANNER AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND SURFACE
FEATURES INVOLVED IN THIS SETUP GET SAMPLED OVER THE COMING DAYS
UPSTREAM. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR WINTER WEATHER, BUT NOTHING
IS GUARANTEED THIS FAR OUT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ACTIVELY MONITOR
TRENDS IN GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MM/25
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS 5 KNOTS
OR LESS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON
TUESDAY, ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT TO MODERATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW PREVAILS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO A MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW SATURDAY AND MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 30 57 38 64 / 0 0 0 10
PENSACOLA 34 57 41 61 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 37 57 41 61 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 26 55 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 26 53 32 62 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN 25 51 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 25 56 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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