777
FXUS64 KMOB 151805
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
105 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
- HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR HIGH HEAT INDICES UP TO 112.
ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS RETURNING FOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE
BEACHES ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
STARTING OFF WITH THIS AFTERNOON, QUIET AND HOT! SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST HAS INTRODUCED A GENERAL LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE
NIGHTLY LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY TO DRIVE WELL SOUTH INTO OUR OUTER
MARINE WATERS. THIS LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALSO DELAY THE NORMAL
NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE COASTAL SEABREEZE CIRCULATION, WHICH
MEANS WE'LL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON AREAS OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON AS WE COULD TAP NOTICABLY HOTTER FOR INTERIOR
COASTAL LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BEFORE MIXING
OUT. MEANWHILE FARTHER NORTH, INTO INTERIOR ALABAMA, A DEEPER PBL
MIXING REGIME WILL PROVIDE LOWER FORECAST TD'S COMPARED TO NBM
GUIDANCE, AND DID ADD AN ADJUSTMENT THERE WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL RANGE 103-108 ON AVERAGE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE COAST INTO INTERIOR COASTAL LOCATIONS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AS IT'S NOT ENTIRELY IMPOSSIBLE TO REACH AT/NEAR EXTREME
HEAT. HEAT RISK IS NOTICABLY PINGING ON EXTREME FOR MANY AREAS AND
WILL NEED TO REASSESS THE LONGEVITY IN REGARDS TO IMPACTS COMING
UP. WILL CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE MESSAGING AND EXPRESS HEAT
PRECAUTIONS FOR THOSE OUTDOORS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS.
OTHERWISE, THIS SAME NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPLY GREATER SFC
CONFLUENCE LATER TODAY TO ADD A BOOST/FOCUS POINT FOR GREATER
LOCALIZED ASCENT TO GET CONVECTION GOING. MAY DISTINCTLY SEE
SEVERAL STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR
MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST/MICROBURST POTENTIAL. NORTH OF THE SEABREEZE, CONVECTIVE
T WILL BE REACHED (ACTUALLY AS OF 18Z, ALREADY IS) ACROSS
INTERIOR AL LEADING TO FREE-FORMING, DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION.
NBM POPS APPEAR VERY PLAUSIBLE WITH A NOTICEABLE UPTICK TODAY IN
THE 30-60% COVERAGE RANGE, GOING TO KEEP THIS GOING AS IT MATCHES
WELL WITH REFS/HRRR TRENDS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A FEW
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY.
TOMORROW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
BLEED WEST ALLOWING FOR AN AREAL INCREASE IN WEAKNESS WITH TIME.
NBM POPS DID COME IN HIGHER MON AND TUE, WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH A
COUPLE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES (LIKELY REMNANT ENERGY LINGERING
FROM PRIOR DAYS CONVECTION) RIDING EAST TO WEST, PROVIDING A BIT
OF AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY WHERE SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS
ALLOW FOR ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE TO SPARK MORE LOCALLY
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EACH MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED, AS WE'LL EASILY
REMAIN IN HEAT ADVISORY RANGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AGAIN,
WILL MONITOR ANY POTENTIAL NEED FOR EXTREME HEAT, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST.
ONE QUICK NOTE ABOUT THE EXTENDED INTO NEXT WEEKEND, SEEING LONG-
RANGE CLUSTER ANALYSIS HINT AT GREATER/DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION INTO THE SE US, WITH RELATIVELY
CONFIDENT GEFS/EPS/CMC ENSEMBLE ALIGNMENT. THIS MAY PROVIDE AN
EVEN MORE NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN DAILY SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IN THE
LONG RANGE, SOMETHING TO MONITOR. KLG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MANY AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COASTAL SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, FILLING IN NORTH
THROUGH THE EVENING. INTRODUCED PROB30'S APPROX TIMED BASED ON
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE, WITH MOST TO ALL ACTIVITY COMING TO AN END
AROUND SUNSET WITH VFR PREVAILING. KLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEKEND, AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW
BECOMING ESTABLISHED AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO
POTENTIALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS AND WINDS NEAR STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 77 98 77 98 / 10 20 0 20
PENSACOLA 80 96 80 97 / 10 30 0 10
DESTIN 82 94 82 95 / 10 30 0 10
EVERGREEN 76 99 76 99 / 10 10 0 10
WAYNESBORO 76 99 74 99 / 10 0 0 20
CAMDEN 76 99 77 99 / 10 0 0 10
CRESTVIEW 76 98 76 99 / 10 40 0 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
261>266.
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ201>206.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-
079.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...NONE.
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