074  
FXUS64 KMOB 161740 AAD  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 17.18Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH  
AT 10 KNOTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 3 KNOTS OR  
LESS AND BECOMING VARIABLE MID EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. /22  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1010 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.  
 
UPDATE...LOCAL BEACH PATROL OFFICIALS ALONG THE ALABAMA AND  
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES ARE REPORTING WEAK TO MODERATE  
RIP CURRENTS, AND ARE NOW FLYING GREEN OR YELLOW FLAGS. BOUY  
REPORTS HAVE THE SWELL HEIGHTS DOWN TO 1.6 FEET WITH 6 SECOND  
PERIODS. WITH THESE CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND OF  
LESS THAN 10 MPH, WE DOWNGRADED THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR TODAY  
FROM HIGH TO MODERATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPROVING  
CONDITIONS TONIGHT, SO DOWNGRADED THE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM  
MODERATE TO LOW. A LOW RISK IS THEN FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  
/22  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AND MARINE AREAS BELOW.  
 
UPDATE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR ARE NO  
LONGER REPORTING FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. SENT A QUICK  
UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG FROM THE PUBLIC  
ZONE FORECAST. ALSO REMOVED ANY CHANCE OF MORNING PRECIPITATION  
BASED ON THE CURRENT CLEAR RADAR AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS  
HOLDING OFF ON DEVELOPING ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND  
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. /22  
 
MARINE...SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING  
PRECIPITATION OVER THE GULF WATERS BASED ON THE CURRENT CLEAR  
RADAR AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HOLDING OFF ON DEVELOPING ANY  
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. /22  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 
AVIATION...  
12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 17.12Z. WINDS WILL  
BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH  
EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS LATE THIS  
EVENING THROUGH 17.12Z. 32/EE  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019/  
 
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THE REMNANTS OF BARRY  
GENERALLY OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO  
MERGE AND BE PICKED UP WITH THE MEAN UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN  
TIER STATES. TO THE SOUTH A BROAD SURFACE TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES  
TO SHIFT WEST LEADING TO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND LOWER RAIN  
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES AND FORECAST AREA TODAY  
AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE  
RAIN...MAINLY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE...CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE  
AL/MS COASTAL WATERS MOVING INLAND MOSTLY OVER SE MS AND WESTERN  
PORTIONS OF SW AL LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FOR THIS  
MORNING EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR  
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED  
WITH RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY LESS THAN .10 INCHES WHERE IT  
DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE, BETTER SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH LESS CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT COMPARED TO  
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASON NORMS TODAY AND  
TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR  
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE  
COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST  
INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  
 
WITH A PERSISTENT MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH A  
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND A HIGH OR SPRING TIDAL RANGE A HIGH  
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF AL AND  
NWFL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. 32/EE  
 
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...AT THE SURFACE,  
THE TROF AXIS TRAILING THE REMNANTS OF BARRY MIGRATES EASTWARD  
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO NORTHERN ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY,  
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE TAIL  
END OF THE TROF AXIS CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN  
STATES. A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF  
OUR AREA, OVER KENTUCKY, BY LATE THURSDAY. AS MENTIONED IN  
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN  
AND EAST OF THE TROF AXIS, AND WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT WE WILL BE  
LOOKING AT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN  
SETTING UP OVER OUR REGION AS WE GO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD,  
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL BE TRENDING WARMER WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY.  
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST  
AREA, AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY WHEN A FEW INTERIOR EASTERN  
LOCATIONS MAY REACH UP TOWARD 97 DEGREES. COOLEST TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90. WITH ALL THE  
MOISTURE IN PLACE, AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE 100 TO  
105 DEGREE RANGE ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH SOME VALUES  
UP NEAR 107 DEGREES ON THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN WARM AND  
MUGGY, RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER INLAND AREAS AND MID  
TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO AND ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS  
 
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SETS UP  
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK. SOUTH OF  
THIS FEATURE, THERE A TAP OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL SPREAD EAST  
TO WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AS A MID-LEVEL  
IMPULSE/INVERTED TROF SNEAKS WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES  
TO THE SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL TEND TO  
INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, AND AS  
THE UPPER RIDGING TO THE NORTH GIVES WAY TO A DIGGING TROF, SOME  
LIKELY POPS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS. AWAY FROM STORMS,  
DAYTIME HIGHS REFLECT LITTLE CHANGE, WITH LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED  
AND HEAT INDICES CONTINUING IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER  
INTERIOR AREAS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO AND ALONG  
THE COAST. 12/DS  
 
MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST OVER THE EASTERN  
AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE WEEK LEADING TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY  
WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE HIGHEST  
WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OUT TO 20 NM  
INCLUDING INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY  
EVENING HOURS DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING INLAND. 32/EE  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab AL Page
The Nexlab FL Page
The Nexlab MS Page Main Text Page