690
FXUS64 KMOB 230013
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
713 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF BEACHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ACROSS THE ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF BEACHES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- A SERIES OF STORM COMPLEXES WILL LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH MAY AFFECT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 84. A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. JGC/98
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
22.12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOW A FLAT MID-LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED EAST
TO WEST FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TO THE GULF. NORTH OF THE
RIDGE, EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES IS A SHORT WAVE TROF AT MID TO
HIGH LEVELS EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF IS MAINTAINING A SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE AREA. TO THE NORTH, A FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE OH
RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH TX. THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT IS
POTENT W/REGARD TO INSTABILITY W/SBCAPES 3500 TO 4000 J/KG. SHEAR
WEAK. ALTHOUGH A BIT LOWER THAN LAST WEEK, ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE
(PWAT'S: 1.7 TO 2.0") IS STILL MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
RAIN CHANCES. AN AVERAGE OF THE RANGE BEING ABOUT ONE STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE THE MEANS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE. DESPITE
SUFFICIENCY IN ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE, SHOWERS
AND STORMS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. UPSTREAM HOWEVER, SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT, A
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
MS AND FORECASTERS WILL BE WATCHING THIS FEATURE IN THE NEAR TERM
AS A POINT OF FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION
ORGANIZING INTO A LINE LATER TODAY. THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT
RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY ALONG AND
NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 84. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK UP/WEAKEN BY AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SPREADS
SOUTHWARD AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF H85 JET 30-35KTS LIFTS
OUT ACROSS THE GA.
WE APPEAR TO BE MOVING INTO A CHALLENGING, CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL SYSTEMS CAUGHT UP IN AN
EVOLVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. IN ADDITION TO THESE, LEFT OVER WEAK
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES IN A PERSISTENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT LEADS TO PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) AT
CHANCE TO LIKELY EACH DAY. POPS LOWER EACH NIGHT AND REFLECT MORE
OF A SUMMER-TIME DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MODE. SOME OF STORMS POSSIBLY
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY, BUT HOPEFULLY OCCURRENCES WILL BE BRIEF. RAIN COOLED
BUBBLE HIGHS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS WOULD FAVOR LIMITED
RESIDENCE TIME OVER ANY ONE LOCATION TO PRESENT FLOODING PROBLEMS
WITH MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE STORM MOTION. BUT CONSIDERING THE
RECENT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT WE ARE COMING OUT OF, IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH FOR A FLOODING RESPONSE, ESPECIALLY ON POOR DRAINED
LOWER LYING AND URBAN AREAS. SO FORECASTERS WILL BE WATCHING THIS
CLOSELY AS WELL.
A TRANSITION INTO A MORE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FRIDAY AND
MORE SO INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
HIGHEST DAYTIME HEAT INDICES THROUGH THE PERIOD RANGE MOSTLY 101 TO
106. TUESDAY, THERE ARE A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO BAYS
AND INLAND WATERWAYS WHICH MAY BE AROUND 108.
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS BEACH SERVICES
WERE FLYING RED FLAGS FOR RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING. THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO REFLECT A DOWNWARD TREND TO MODERATE RISK TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, THEN LOW MID WEEK. /10
HYDROLOGY
EIGHT RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN FLOOD. PLEASE SEE
WEATHER.GOV/MOB FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS. /10
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BRING LOCALIZED DROPS
TO MVFR OR LOWER VISBYS OVER THE INTERIOR TONIGHT AND ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. GENERALLY 5-10 KNOT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWESTERLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. JGC/98
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
IMPACTS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK COME FROM SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES POTENTIALLY SPREADING OUT OVER THE MARINE
AREA. THESE WILL BRING ABRUPT STRONG GUSTY WIND SHIFTS, LOCALLY
HIGHER WAVES, SEAS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. /10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 77 93 74 92 / 0 40 30 70
PENSACOLA 79 93 77 91 / 10 30 30 60
DESTIN 79 90 77 89 / 10 30 20 40
EVERGREEN 74 90 71 90 / 30 50 20 50
WAYNESBORO 75 90 72 89 / 30 40 10 70
CAMDEN 73 86 71 87 / 50 50 10 60
CRESTVIEW 75 93 73 92 / 10 40 10 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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