108  
FXUS64 KMOB 071123  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
623 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
A SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN  
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO SLOWLY ADVECT  
BACK INTO THE LOCAL REGION. BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE  
WEEK, UPPER RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST  
US. IT MAY, HOWEVER, HAVE SOME TROUBLE ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS  
OUR LOCAL REGION AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO  
MOVE AROUND/WITHIN THE RIDGE, KEEPING OUR AREA UNDERNEATH A  
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE. THEREFORE, AM ANTICIPATING RAIN CHANCES  
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND STORMS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW, BECOMING MORE  
NUMEROUS BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE  
WEEKEND. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL  
SUMMERTIME PATTERN, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE  
MORNING OVER OUR MARINE ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST, PULSE-TYPE  
STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE  
WHICH SPREAD INLAND VIA OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS, AND ACTIVITY  
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF  
DAYTIME HEATING. AS WE TYPICALLY SEE WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN,  
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY  
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.  
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. AT  
THIS POINT, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW HEAT  
ADVISORY CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES COULD POTENTIALLY RISE TO  
AS HIGH AS 102-107 DEGREES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S  
INLAND TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE RIP CURRENT  
RISK REMAINS LOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, THERE IS AN  
INDICATION THAT STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW MAY HELP TO INCREASE  
THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A MODERATE RISK FOR OUR FLORIDA BEACHES  
DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. /96  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE NOTED  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 11Z. AM EXPECTING SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE  
AFTERNOON AS AN INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS  
AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS  
EVENING AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND THE DAY'S HEATING IS LOST.  
/16  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  
PREVAILS THROUGH THE WEEK. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OTHER THAN  
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. /96  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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