361
FXUS64 KMOB 050556
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1256 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES. THE RISK
RETURNS TO HIGH BY WEDNESDAY.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EASTER MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- MARINE WINDS WILL REACH ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS ROUNDS OF
ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS NEAR GALE-FORCE ARE LIKELY
NEXT WEEK AS MARINE WINDS TURN EASTERLY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
OUR LONG AWAITED FRONT IS ARRIVING AS RAIN HAS SLOWLY MOVED INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THE FRONT HAS MADE IT TO CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. OVERALL, WEAK ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OUR
AREA OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 10 HOURS AS SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE
THIS EVENING AND WHILE A FEW HAVE SHOW SOME SIGNS OF VERY WEAK
TRANSIENT ROTATION THESE VERY MINI SPINNIES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. TAKING A QUICK GANDER AT THE KMOB VERTICAL
WIND PROFILE SHOWS REALLY POOR AND WEAKENING SHEAR AS WE MOVE
FURTHER EAST COUPLED WITH PALTRY INSTABILITY. ALL THAT TO SAY WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING MUCH FROM ANY OF THESE STORMS OTHER THAN A QUICK SHOT
OF RAIN. THE MAIN LINE SHOULD REACH I-65 BY AROUND DAY BREAK AND
THEN CLEAR THE COAST BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWS TO A
CRAWL OFFSHORE. THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
EJECT OUT LEADING TO THE FRONT LIKELY STALLING JUST OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THE FRONT SITTING JUST OFFSHORE, SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS MAY ENCROACH UPON THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES PROGRESS ACROSS THE MOSTLY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WILL ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
OVERRUNNING RAIN TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, MOISTURE QUALITY WILL LIKELY
BE LIMITED AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN WILL LIKELY
BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY WARM.
BEACH HAZARDS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY THROUGH
TODAY AS A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST. WHILE THE WINDS
WILL NOT BE STRONG, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FETCH AND
INCREASINGLY STRONG TIDES FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOONS TO RESULT IN
LIKELY HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. BE SURE TO
CONTINUE TO SWIM NEAR LIFEGUARDS. BB-8
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS PERSIST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS HOUR
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, LEADING TO REDUCED
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MAJORITY OF THE AREA AS THE RAIN MOVES OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
SLIDES INTO THE GULF. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
WINDS QUICKLY TURN NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND A APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE WINDS TURN EASTERLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE MODERATE TO
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT A FEW ROUNDS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL GUSTS NEARING GALE FORCE BY
MIDWEEK. BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 75 53 69 52 / 80 20 10 10
PENSACOLA 76 56 69 57 / 80 30 20 10
DESTIN 75 57 71 57 / 70 40 20 10
EVERGREEN 75 48 72 48 / 80 20 0 0
WAYNESBORO 71 49 68 49 / 70 10 0 0
CAMDEN 70 48 68 49 / 80 10 0 0
CRESTVIEW 79 51 73 50 / 80 30 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR GMZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT MONDAY
FOR GMZ650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY
FOR GMZ670-675.
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