879
FXUS64 KMOB 212010
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
310 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
- MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER MOST OF THE MARINE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FOR BEACH AREAS FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
BASED ON THE LATEST RIP CURRENT GUIDANCE, NOW ANTICIPATE THAT THE
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY RATHER THAN
FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO, SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT MORE
QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
A BIT LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF MOSTLY 25-30%. SURFACE
WIND SPEEDS ARE LIGHT, AND AM NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED FOR ANY
FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS. /29
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SLOWLY PROGRESSES INTO
MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A LARGE EASTERN
STATES UPPER TROF MOSTLY MOVES WELL OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THOUGH LEAVES A WEAKER UPPER TROF LINGERING JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE DAMPENS OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, POSSIBLY
INTO THE PLAINS. A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN STATES, AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY,
A SURFACE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP NEAR/EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
AND TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD, WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE STRENGTHENING
SURFACE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING OVER
THE MARINE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE
RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASING TO HIGH AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A BIT COOLER AIR POTENTIALLY FLOWING INTO
THE AREA AS WELL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO RELAX MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO A DECREASING RIP CURRENT RISK.
OUR DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, THEN HIGHS ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES THEN TREND A BIT
WARMER GOING INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY BY WHICH TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 40S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER OR MID 50S AT THE
COAST. /29
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS MOSTLY AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME CALM OR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING, THEN RETURN TO AROUND 5 KNOTS THURSDAY
MORNING. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO EAST
NORTHEASTERLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING
EAST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG BEFORE APPROACHING GALE
FORCE WITH LOCAL GUSTS POTENTIALLY SURPASSING GALE FORCE WELL
OFFSHORE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER WHICH MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
KL/31
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 49 80 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 54 80 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 57 79 57 78 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 44 79 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 47 81 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 46 77 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 45 81 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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