665
FXUS64 KMOB 161908
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
208 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 207 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST HEAT INDICES IN THE
100 TO 107 RANGE THIS WEEKEND AND 105 TO 111 NEXT WEEK FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
AN UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A WEAK SFC/UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THIS
WEEKEND AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE
WEST OF THE AREA WILL EXPAND EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND HOTTER TEMPS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH SATURDAY, WARMING INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS
COMBINED WITH INCREASED TEMPS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING HEAT STRESS.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 107 RANGE THIS
WEEKEND AND 105 TO 111 OR HIGHER NEXT WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT PRODUCTS POSSIBLE AS WELL
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. /13
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE.
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY MAINLY BEARING 260-290 FOR
WESTERN AREAS (KMOB), 300-330 FOR EASTERN TERMINALS (KPNS/KJKA),
WITH THE BRIEF EXCEPTION OF KBFM WHERE 0-1KM WINDS ARE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WEAK SEABREEZE ALONG THE COAST WITH SFC WINDS
BEARING 150-170 THEN SWITCHING LATER ON. WILL MONITOR POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MAINLY INLAND/NORTH OF AREA
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON EVENING, BUT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. FOR NOW,
CHANCES/CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS BUT WILL
MONITOR. KLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. /13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 95 75 96 76 / 0 10 10 20
PENSACOLA 95 78 96 78 / 0 0 10 20
DESTIN 93 79 95 79 / 0 0 10 30
EVERGREEN 92 72 93 73 / 0 0 10 20
WAYNESBORO 94 73 95 74 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN 90 73 90 74 / 0 10 10 20
CRESTVIEW 95 74 95 74 / 0 0 10 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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