378
FXUS64 KMOB 211134
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
534 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
- FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY
NEARER THE COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY MARINE FOG THAT
DEVELOPS.
- A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-65 ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THE PRIMARY FORECAST HEADACHE WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF DENSE
MARINE FOG. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND THROUGH 6AM THIS MORNING.
IT'S POSSIBLE THIS SPREADS IN AREAL COVERAGE, POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING SOME OF THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON
THE COVERAGE AND DENSITY PRECLUDES ISSUING ANY DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES AT
THIS TIME. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT, WARM, MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH A PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL THREAT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THIS IS WHERE INSTABILITY APPROACHING 1,500 TO 2,000J/KG OVERLAPS
WITH 50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SUBTLE FORCING. THE MAIN
LIMITER OVERALL REMAINS THE FORCING ACROSS THE AREA, KEEPING THE
THREAT MARGINAL.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IT TURNS VERY COLD, A STARK CONTRAST TO
THE ALL TIME RECORD WARM DAY FOR FEBRUARY WE JUST HAD. HIGHS
PLUMMET INTO THE 40'S AND 50'S BY MONDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20'S AND LOWER 30'S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MIDDLE TO UPPER
20'S AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT. WE QUICKLY MODULATE BACK INTO THE
LOWER 70'S FOR HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY AND LOWS INTO THE 50'S BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE AGAIN THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
BASED ON RIP CURRENT REPORTS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY AND THE
EXPECTATION FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT HAVE OPTED TO GO FORTH WITH UPGRADING THE MODERATE RISK TO A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR OUR ALABAMA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE
BEACHES THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. RIP CURRENTS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR SUNDAY AND A LOW RISK FOLLOWING FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MM/25
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AREA-WIDE THIS MORNING. CEILINGS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-MORNING AHEAD OF THE
STORMS. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY RETURN TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH DENSE
MARINE FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TO
NIGHT, WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO LATE SUNDAY MORNING. A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR
THIS PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE AFTERWARDS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON,
POTENTIALLY NEEDING EXTENDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW DIMINISHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 80 43 58 33 / 60 50 0 0
PENSACOLA 79 47 59 36 / 50 70 0 0
DESTIN 74 47 59 36 / 60 70 0 0
EVERGREEN 81 41 57 28 / 80 70 0 0
WAYNESBORO 79 39 56 30 / 80 40 0 0
CAMDEN 76 39 54 28 / 80 50 0 0
CRESTVIEW 82 44 58 30 / 70 70 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR GMZ631-
632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR GMZ633>636.
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