839
FXUS64 KMOB 221143
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
643 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
FOR LOCAL AREA BEACHES.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND A LOT OF THE PRECIP
WILL LIKELY FALL AS VIRGA WITHOUT EVER MAKING IT TO THE GROUND
OWING TO FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS GENERALLY BELOW 3 KILOMETERS. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE INLAND WHERE DRY LOW LEVELS ARE THE
MOST ROBUST AND PERSIST THE LONGEST. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80'S FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50'S TO LOWER 60'S. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY, BECOMING A HIGH RISK WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO A MODERATE RISK FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL RH VALUES IMPROVE ENOUGH TO
AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE REST OF THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND WE FINALLY SEE A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT MAY FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PROGRESS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH EACH PASSING WAVE PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES ARE
GOING TO BE SATURDAY, WITH MORE ISOLATED CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES ANY GIVEN DAY WILL BE OVER OUR FAR INTERIOR
COUNTIES. IT WON'T BE A WASHOUT OR DROUGHT BUSTER BY ANY MEANS BUT
IT WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE OF PACE GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY DRY
CONDITIONS WE'VE ENDURED SO FAR THIS YEAR.
AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY, THE MOST POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO A
LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. AT THE MOMENT MOST GUIDANCE HAS A
BULK OF THE FORCING REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT THERE'S
CERTAINLY A SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL PROBLEMS WITH SEVERE WEATHER FOR
SOMEONE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. WHETHER THAT'S OUR AREA OR
OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH IS YET TO BE DETERMINED. EVEN IF BETTER
FORCING IS TO OUR NORTH, IF WE DID GET STORMS TO DEVELOP THEY
WOULD HAVE A GOOD CAPE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO WORK WITH TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE, SO CERTAINLY SOMETHING WORTHWHILE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. AT A MINIMUM, WE'LL SEE AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MM/25
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
A LIGHT PREDOMINATELY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 81 60 81 62 / 10 10 0 0
PENSACOLA 78 63 78 66 / 10 0 10 0
DESTIN 77 64 78 66 / 10 0 10 0
EVERGREEN 83 54 85 56 / 20 10 10 0
WAYNESBORO 82 57 83 59 / 10 10 0 0
CAMDEN 82 56 83 57 / 10 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 83 54 84 57 / 10 10 10 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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