119
FXUS64 KMOB 251757
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1257 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
- AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO NEAR 25-30% ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 MPH. THIS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED WILDFIRE CONCERNS.
- DANGEROUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS
WEEKEND. STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL PROMOTE A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, HIGH SURF, AND HAZARDS TO SMALL
CRAFT.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT MAY POSE THE RISK OF BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES BEING
THE MAIN THREATS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING MULTIPLE HAZARDS TO THE REGION INCLUDING THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, AND BEACH AND
MARINE HAZARDS. MORE DETAILS ON THESE HAZARDS CAN BE FOUND BELOW.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, ANOTHER MUCH MORE POTENT UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME OF THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.
PRIMARY IMPACTS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE REST OF
TODAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PERHAPS A WARM ADVECTION SHOWER OR TWO
BEGINNING TO POP UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT,
HELPING TO SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
SUNDAY.
WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL, THERE HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE GROUND OF SOLUTIONS ENTERTAINED IN PRIOR FORECAST
DISCUSSIONS. MOST CAMS AND RESULTANT HREF GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO
HONE IN ON A SLOWER MOVING MORNING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OUT OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI, ALLOWING FOR MORE TIME FOR
ADEQUATE MOISTURE RETURN AND DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY
POSITION OF THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND PERHAPS THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. UPPER DIFLUENCE OVERSPREADS THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE AREA SITTING FAVORABLY UNDERNEATH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE CURRENT ANTICIPATION
IS FOR A REINVIGORATION OF STORMS AND A RESULTANT THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THINGS PROGRESS. GIVEN THE MORE ROBUST
AFTERNOON CONVECTION, THE CURRENT ANTICIPATION BASED ON TRENDS
THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH THE CAMS SUITE IS FOR SUFFICIENT
OVERTURNING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND SCOURING OUT OF RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PREVENT ANY ROBUST REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS DESPITE THE TROUGH TRANSITING THE AREA WITH SOME
MAGNITUDE OF HEIGHT FALLS. IF WE SOMEHOW END UP WITH WEAKER
AFTERNOON CONVECTION, THEN A SEVERE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR
TORNADOES COULD STILL MATERIALIZE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, ALTHOUGH THIS IS BECOMING A LESS LIKELY
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.
FOR SUNDAY IT APPEARS THAT A SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY,
SHEAR, AND FORCING WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. A BULK OF THE GUIDANCE ELONGATES AND CURVES HODOGRAPHS
YIELDING AROUND 40 TO 45 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, 1,000 TO
1,500J/KG OF SBCAPE, AND ABOUT 100 TO 150 M2/S2 OF SFC-1KM SRH
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS WOULD LIKELY PROMOTE A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THIS THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FROM THE MID-LATE
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENINGS HOURS, WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE VARYING ON THE SPEED AT WHICH CONVECTION TRANSITS THE
AREA. STORM MODE WOULD LIKELY BE SEMI- DISCRETE SUPERCELLS,
HOWEVER GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT THESE MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND/OR
LINEAR SEGMENTS. ONE THING I CAN'T RULE OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THIS IS FOR AN ELEVATED SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL
OR TWO. THE SHEAR MAGNITUDE INCREASES QUITE A BIT WITH AROUND 50
KNOTS OF STRAIGHT-LINE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ROOTED ABOVE A LIKELY
SURFACE INVERSION. IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ABOVE THE INVERSION
LAYER EXISTS, A MARGINAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE
CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTION, WITH ANY TRAINING STORMS BEING THE MOST
PROBLEMATIC. LATEST HREF 6 HOURLY QPF PMM IS INTRIGUING ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES STRETCHING FROM MOBILE COUNTY EAST THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS DEPICTS 6 HOUR QPF TOTALS
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO
LATE EVENING TIMEFRAME. THIS IS A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL UPTREND FROM
PRIOR ITERATIONS OF THE HREF AND IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED AS WE MOVE FORWARD.
OUTSIDE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING HAZARDS, WE ALSO
CONTINUE TO CONTEND WITH COASTAL HAZARDS IN THE FORM OF A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. MODERATE TO STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BUILDING SURF AND
STRENGTHENING RIP CURRENTS. SURF HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 4
TO 6 FEET TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE FLOW RELAXES AND
SURF HEIGHTS DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LINGER FOR LONGER
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, FORECAST PETSS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MOST COASTAL SITES REMAINING JUST BELOW
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT DURING
PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE, WITH HIGHEST VALUES SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE
THIS, GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED SURF HEIGHTS SOME OVERWASH AND MINOR
INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE LOW, SUSCEPTIBLE SPOTS ON DAUPHIN
ISLAND AND FORT PICKENS.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE NEXT WEEK WE
GRADUALLY DRY OUT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING, ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY EXIST EARLY IN THE WEEK, WITH AN
ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60'S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40'S EACH
NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN IDEALIZED
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETS UP AS WINDS RELAX AND CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUE. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THE COOLEST NIGHTS
SO FAR THIS SEASON, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30'S TO LOWER 40'S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. MM/25
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS OF 22-
26 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR/MVFR BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. STORMS
COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MID-MORNING, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE
TAF YET. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6PM
SUNDAY FOR THE GULF WATERS, AND THROUGH 6PM THIS EVENING FOR THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIMEFRAME,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 65 75 62 77 / 20 80 70 20
PENSACOLA 67 76 66 77 / 10 60 80 30
DESTIN 67 79 68 76 / 10 40 70 40
EVERGREEN 60 77 59 73 / 10 60 80 40
WAYNESBORO 60 70 59 74 / 30 80 70 20
CAMDEN 60 74 57 70 / 10 60 80 30
CRESTVIEW 60 79 62 75 / 10 40 70 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ631-632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
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