102
FXUS64 KMOB 022356
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
656 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 656 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- INCREASING CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
THIS WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
- HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR COASTAL ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING EARLY MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEKEND WITH WATER LEVELS UP TO 2 FEET ABOVE
NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
INCREASED POPS TO INCLUDE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES THROUGH MID-EVENING DUE TO ONGOING ACTIVITY, WITH THIS
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE
FORECAST REMAINS IN TRACK. /22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE. CURRENT PWATS ARE AROUND 1.9 INCHES AND RISE TO
AROUND 2.2- 2.3 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO WHERE PWATS
FURTHER CLIMB TO AROUND 2.5 INCHES BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS
MOISTURE IS QUITE ANOMALOUS BEING WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
(~1.95 INCHES) AND IS EVEN CLOSE TO THE DAILY MAX OF 2.54 INCHES
BASED ON SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. WITH PWATS THIS HIGH, THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE CLOSE TO FULLY SATURATED. THE
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FREEZING LEVELS OF 15,000+FT
WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES WITH RAINFALL RATES
TOPPING OUT AT 2-3 INCHES/HOUR.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS. CAMS
HAVE CONTINUED TO PINPOINT AREAS ALONG THE COAST FOR THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HREF 6-HOUR LPMMS SHOW SOME BULLS-EYES OF AROUND
4-6 INCHES ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. RIGHT NOW WE ARE FORECASTING
PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 4- 6 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY AND SOME OF OUR
FAR NORTHERN REACHES COULD ONLY RECEIVE 2-3 INCHES. SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST COULD RECEIVE UP TO
7-10 INCHES WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. WE HAVE HELD
OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND HIGHER FFG
THROUGH THE AREA, BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE
EVENT PROGRESSES. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS EVENT, BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHILE IT IS VERY MOIST AND
RAINY, TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVERAGE KEEPS HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW 80S.
THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (2+ INCH PWATS) LASTS INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO AT
LEAST MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA AND
DECREASES RAIN CHANCES AROUND TUESDAY AND INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE AND THE DRIER AIR WILL BE VERY WELCOMED
AFTER THIS WET PERIOD. THE FRONT DOES COME WITH INCREASING WINDS
WHICH WILL HAVE MARINE WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS, HIGHER WAVE
HEIGHTS, AND AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK AGAIN.
..COASTAL FLOODING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN SATURDAY MORNING
AND POTENTIALLY SUNDAY MORNING. LOCAL TIDE GAUGES SHOWED VERY
CLOSE OR EXCEEDED THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING AND A SIMILAR SETUP
LOOKS TO BE TRUE FOR SATURDAY MORNING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
WHEN THE HIGH TIDE COMBINES WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MOST
AREAS APPROACH OR EQUAL OUR 2.0 FEET MHHW THRESHOLD (2 FEET ABOVE
NORMALLY DRY GROUND) SO WE OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8AM SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
MINOR INUNDATION FOR TYPICAL TROUBLE SPOTS LIKE DAUPHIN ISLAND AND
FORT PICKENS AND SPLASHOVER ON THE CAUSEWAY.
..BEACH FORECAST
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ALL AREA BEACHES FLYING
RED FLAGS TODAY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES TO BE HIGH FOR ALL
BEACHES IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THE HIGH RISK CONTINUES TO SUNDAY NIGHT THEN DROPS TO A MODERATE
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED SURF UP TO 3-4 FEET CONTINUES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND BY MID WEEK MAY FURTHER INCREASE TOWARDS HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SS/97
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE INLAND BY LATE EVENING, BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT SO KEPT A PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE PNS/JKA TAF SITES.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ALONG THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND SPREAD INLAND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, SO ADDED ADDITIONAL PROB30 GROUPS FOR ALL TAF
SITES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DROPS OF CIGS/VIS TO
MVFR AND EVEN LOCALLY IFR WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE
EXPECTED, ALONG WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND
10-15 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS RELAX BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN BECOME STRONG AND
TURN NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
WE GET STRONG EASTERLY WINDS.SEAS INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET LATE WEEK
INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER BUMP TO 5-8 FEET POSSIBLE IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE INCREASING WINDS. SS/97
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 72 82 71 82 / 60 90 80 90
PENSACOLA 75 83 74 82 / 60 90 80 100
DESTIN 75 84 74 83 / 50 90 80 100
EVERGREEN 68 85 68 80 / 20 70 80 90
WAYNESBORO 69 84 69 79 / 20 70 80 90
CAMDEN 69 87 69 78 / 20 50 80 90
CRESTVIEW 69 84 70 80 / 20 90 80 100
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR ALZ263>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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