599
FXUS64 KMOB 141956
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
256 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS, WILL EXACERBATE WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
DENSE, IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
- A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE, ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO SATURDAY. THE ONLY FEATURE THAT DOES ATTEMPT TO PASS NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE THAT
PUSHES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AT THIS
POINT, ANY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND OVERALL DEEP MOISTURE VALUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN
RATHER LIMITED, SO NO RAIN IS ANTICIPATED. HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST
TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONE
OR TWO INLAND LOCATIONS CRACK THE 90 DEGREE MARK BY LATE WEEK.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WITH
STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE, ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS, FOG DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO REMAIN
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT INTERIOR COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO
SEE DENSE FOG.
THE PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD
FRONT TO APPROACH AND PASS TROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. OVERALL MOISTURE
AND FORCING ARE RATHER MEAGER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER, WE
MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY A STORM) LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. AFTER ITS PASSAGE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TO OUR NORTH, ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO FILTER
IN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH TO THE LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
RCMOS PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE MAY DROP TO A LOW RISK
BY THIS WEEKEND. /96
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING
CALM OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR TO VLIFR VISIBILITY IS
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FOG RE-DEVELOPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
CONDITIONS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY BE MVFR TO IFR
AROUND SUNRISE. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
/96
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
LITTLE TO NO RELIEF IS EXPECTED FOR OUR ONGOING DROUGHT
SITUATION AS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES AND 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS REMAIN
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA, THE WORSENING DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY BY SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. WE
COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA BY MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME AS HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE LOW 20% RANGE AND WINDS
INCREASE. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 61 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 10
PENSACOLA 63 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 64 78 65 78 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 55 87 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 57 86 61 86 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN 55 86 59 85 / 0 0 0 10
CRESTVIEW 57 86 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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