186
FXUS64 KMOB 260823
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
323 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY.
A FEW MAY BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXTEND A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA DUE TO A PAIR OF PESKY STORMS.
THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT'S CONVECTION. THESE HAVEN'T SHOWN
ANY INCLINATION TO BECOME STRONG, WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE.
LOOKING AT THE RIP RISK THROUGH THE FORECAST, ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS
LOW ENOUGH FOR MINIMAL ONSHORE SWELL. WHEN COMBINED WITH A
DECREASING TIDAL CYCLE, A LOW RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS AN UPTICK TO
MODERATE WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
/16
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION LOOKS TO SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS
FOR MONDAY. AN MCS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT WEAKENS IN
RESPONSE TO ENCOUNTERING THE DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE, THOUGH LOOKS
TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA DURING THE EARLY TO
LATE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO SETTLES
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND AM ANTICIPATING THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN RESPONSE. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. A LARGE POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROF WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL STATES ON SUNDAY, THEN AN EMBEDDED SYSTEM EJECTS OFF
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A BROAD UPPER
TROF PATTERN EVOLVES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN STATES BY TUESDAY,
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MEANWHILE WEAKENING
AND BEING DEFLECTED OFF TO THE EAST. THE UPPER TROF BECOMES
ORIENTED MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES BY THURSDAY. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION IN THE
PROCESS, AND A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS OVER INTERIOR AREAS ON TUESDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME STRONG STORMS
DEVELOP MAINLY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, BUT
OTHERWISE SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY LOW.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANWHILE DRIFTING
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY PAST
THIS POINT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GULF SURFACE LOW TO PASS
NEARBY THE FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY ON SATURDAY. HAVE FOR NOW
CONTINUED WITH MOSTLY CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN
CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE. A
LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
/29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE LOCAL DROPS
IN CIGS/VISBYS TO MVFR LEVELS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT, BUT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT OPERATIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL DROPS
TO LOW END MVFR LEVELS POSSIBLE.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY
FLOW FOR FRIDAY. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 86 65 85 67 / 40 20 0 0
PENSACOLA 83 67 81 69 / 20 10 0 0
DESTIN 80 68 81 69 / 20 10 10 0
EVERGREEN 88 61 90 62 / 20 10 10 10
WAYNESBORO 85 63 89 65 / 40 20 10 10
CAMDEN 84 62 87 64 / 10 10 10 10
CRESTVIEW 89 61 89 62 / 20 10 10 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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