430
FXUS64 KMOB 141115
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
615 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 106 DEGREES.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES,
BECOMING A HIGH RISK ON WEDNESDAY.
- COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
FOR MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR TODAY AS HIGHS REACH
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S, AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE
100 TO 106 DEGREE RANGE. WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING A 20-30% CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER FOR
TODAY. A MUCH WETTER PATTERN RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ONE
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS,
FOLLOWED BY A SECOND EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, CARVES OUT A
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK AND THEN RETREAT NORTHWARD AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY
MONDAY MORNING AND IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AS IT REACHES THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA PRIOR TO RETREATING BACK
NORTH BY MIDWEEK. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY
WITH PWATS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 2.2 TO 2.4 INCHES MONDAY INTO
MIDWEEK.
A CONTINUOUS FETCH OF MID/UPPER IMPULSES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL MOVE IN A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER
OUR REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUR KEY MESSAGING ON THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA REMAIN UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ON MONDAY, WITH
OUR ENTIRE WARNING AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK ON TUESDAY. PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS WITH WIDESPREAD TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES, LOCALLY AS HIGH
AS 4 INCHES. INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR WHERE BANDING
AND PROLONGED TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION
RATES OCCUR NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY. WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND RAIN, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HOT WITH
HIGHS MONDAY MAINLY IN THE 80S AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 70S
TO MIDDLE 80S. /22
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
LOCALITIES MAY SEE VISBYS DROPPING TO LOW END MVFR/IFR TOWARDS
SUNRISE, BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND EAST OF I-65, WITH LOW END MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGER STORMS. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
ON OPERATIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST, WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT, RISING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY
AFTERNOON, THEN AGAIN BECOMING LIGHT AROUND SUNSET FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. /13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 95 77 88 74 / 10 20 70 60
PENSACOLA 94 80 90 77 / 30 10 50 60
DESTIN 91 79 88 77 / 30 10 50 50
EVERGREEN 94 75 86 71 / 20 50 80 80
WAYNESBORO 93 74 82 70 / 10 70 80 80
CAMDEN 92 73 82 69 / 20 50 80 80
CRESTVIEW 94 76 90 73 / 40 10 70 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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