065
FXUS64 KMOB 250501
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1201 AM CDT THU APR 25 2024
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT THU APR 25 2024
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION, WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT, WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR CATEGORY OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SOME
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BECOMING MORE PREDOMINATE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. /22
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024/
NEW NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM...
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. AT
THE SURFACE, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH WEST-
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL. A SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
LIGHT SURFACE WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND BECOME MORE PREDOMINATELY
SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. GRADUAL INCREASE IN
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH PWATS RISING INTO
THE 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. OVERALL THOUGH,
THE THE DEEP LAYER BETWEEN 850-700MB. SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT ON THURSDAY, COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE, COULD
RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA (UP ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR) ON THURSDAY,
BUT FOR NOW THE CHANCES OF ANY RAIN FOR NOW REMAINS TOO LOW TO
CARRY AN POP GREATER THAN 20 PERCENT. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
VERY PATCHY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S OVER MOST
INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY, WITH
LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW MODERATES TEMPERATURES JUST
SLIGHTLY. DS/12
LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024
THE AREA REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
TRANSITION US TO A MORE WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS PREDOMINATELY DRY AS ANY APPRECIABLE
SHORTWAVES PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A SHARPER, DEEPER TROUGH MAY TRY TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN SEASONABLE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80'S FOR HIGHS EACH
AFTERNOON AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60'S EACH MORNING.
BEACH NOTE: RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASES TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY WITH
A HIGH RISK EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AT THE BEACHES. RCMOS PROBABILITIES INDICATE
A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THE RISK REMAINING HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AT ALL LOCAL BEACHES. MM/25 07/MB
MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024
A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAYS AND
NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS. AN ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL OTHERWISE
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ALONG WITH A BUILD IN SEAS THIS WEEKEND. WILL LIKELY BE
LOOKING FOR AT LEAST SCEC CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO WINDS,
(POSSIBLY SCA FOR SEAS THAT MAY BE APPROACHING 7 FEET) BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. DS/12
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 59 83 61 81 66 81 66 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 61 81 64 78 68 79 69 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 64 79 66 78 68 79 69 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 56 85 58 84 61 83 61 84 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 56 85 59 85 63 84 61 84 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 56 82 58 84 62 83 62 83 / 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 56 85 58 84 61 83 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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