940
FXUS64 KMOB 231953
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
253 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 WHERE ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, LOCALLY AS HIGH
AS 6 TO 8 INCHES, WILL OCCUR.
- A HIGH RISK FOR STRONG, POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE
RISK SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. A HIGH RISK FOR STRONG,
POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY RETURN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
CURRENT RADAR IS DETECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
JUST NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY-84 CORRIDOR MOVING NORTHWARD AT AROUND
30 MPH. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS EXHIBIT WINDS ALOFT UP TO 55
KNOTS, SO ADDITIONAL SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING OR TWO WILL BE REQUIRED. CAMS ARE ALSO
INDICTING A SECONDARY BAND DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS ONE BY LATE
AFTERNOON THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-EVENING THAT WILL NEED TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED. A CONTINUOUS FETCH OF IMPULSES AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH.
THIS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT OUR AREA ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS MODERATE WITH PWATS GENERALLY AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES.
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS COINCIDING WITH DECREASING STABILITY FROM DIURNAL
HEATING. WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE, THE COMBINATION OF ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES, THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND INSTANCES OF FLOODING CONTINUES. IN FACT, THE DAY TWO
EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK (ERO) SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED
EASTWARD INCLUDE OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ZONES, AND DAY THREE
ERO WILL INCLUDE MOST OF OUR WARNING AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES.
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL...
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZE
FLASH FLOODING OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY ALONG
AND WEST OF I-65. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 6
TO 8 INCHES. INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR WHERE BANDING
AND PROLONGED TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION
RATES OCCUR. FOR NOW, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES AS RECOVERY TIMES BETWEEN THE DAYTIME EVENTS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WATERS TO RECEDE, OR UNTIL OUR CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT OF THE
BANDING AND PROLONGED TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.
BEACH FORECAST: A HIGH RISK FOR STRONG, POTENTIALLY LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A
MODERATE RISK SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. A HIGH RISK FOR STRONG,
POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY RETURN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. /22
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AT
ISSUANCE TIME, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS LINGER ALONG
THE COAST. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREVALENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-10. EXPECT BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS
MAY RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
/96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 3
FEET. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 71 85 71 82 / 30 80 70 90
PENSACOLA 74 85 74 83 / 20 50 50 80
DESTIN 74 84 74 84 / 10 40 30 70
EVERGREEN 69 87 70 84 / 30 70 30 90
WAYNESBORO 68 83 69 80 / 40 90 70 90
CAMDEN 68 84 68 82 / 40 80 50 90
CRESTVIEW 70 89 71 87 / 20 60 20 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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