168
FXUS64 KMOB 211133
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
633 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
- THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY VALUES, GUSTY WINDS, AND
MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR LOCAL AREA BEACHES.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
NOW THROUGH MONDAY...
THROUGH THURSDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AN
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MID
WEEK. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO ORGANIZE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST, THOUGH BEST GULF MOISTURE INFLUX REMAINS
WEST OF THE FORECAST. WITH THAT, THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THE ADVANCING UPPER
RIDGE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 85 EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND FROM
THE COAST, MID 60S ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO PASS CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ULTIMATELY, A WEAK SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
IN THE COMING WEEKEND IN RESPONSE. COMBINED WITH ONSHORE FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED GULF MOISTURE INLAND, PRECIPITATION RETURNS
OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO
THE FRONT, READ OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
OFFSHORE FLOW LASTS THROUGH TUESDAY, KEEPING THE RIP RISK LOW INTO
THE COMING WEEK. THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW MID WEEK WILL BRING
BACK INCREASED SWELL TO AREA BEACHES AND A RISE IN THE RIP CURRENT
RISK TO MODERATE TO HIGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. /16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY WIND TOMORROW.
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY INTO MIDWEEK WILL
BECOME PREDOMINATELY SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY, TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY BY THIS WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION THIS MORNING FROM 20 TO 60 NM. /22
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
LOOKING AT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AND DRY FUELS, A MODERATE RISK OF A
SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY, JUST FOR
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO, A FIRE ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALABAMA. MOST OF THE INGREDIENTS FOR A RED FLAG WATCH/WARNING ARE
PRESENT, BUT NOT ALL. WILL LET DAY SHIFT CONTINUE WITH
COORDINATION WITH RELEVANT FIRE WEATHER FOLKS ON ANY WWAS NEEDED.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 80 59 81 59 / 0 0 10 0
PENSACOLA 78 62 79 63 / 0 0 10 0
DESTIN 77 63 77 64 / 0 0 10 0
EVERGREEN 84 53 84 53 / 0 0 10 0
WAYNESBORO 82 57 82 56 / 0 0 10 0
CAMDEN 82 57 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 85 54 84 54 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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