373
FXUS64 KMOB 100605 CCA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1204 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
- DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BELOW 1/4
OF A MILE OVER LAND AREAS AND BELOW 1 MILE OVER MARINE ZONES.
USE EXTRA TIME AND CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING.
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MONDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
NOW THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOVES OFF
TONIGHT. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO MOVES
EAST INTO MID WEEK, OPENING AS IT SHIFTS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TO OVER THE CAROLINAS BEFORE MOVING OVER THE CARIBBEAN INTO MID
WEEK, RESULTING IN A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST, BRINGING GULF MOISTURE INLAND. THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS BEING ADVERTISED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES RISING INTO THE 1.1"-1.3" RANGE,
WITH HIGHER LEVELS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A COLD FRONT
SAGGING SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERRUNNING OVER THIS COLD FRONT
WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MID WEEK. INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL AT BEST, SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RUMBLES TO MIX IN. FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
COMING WEEKEND. MOISTURE LEVELS SEE AN UPTICK INTO THE WEEKEND, INTO
THE 1.3"-1.5" RANGE. INSTABILITY HAS CREPT UP IN THE GUIDANCE,
ESPECIALLY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS SHEAR IS ON THE
DECENT SIDE, WITH BULK WIND SHEAR AROUND 45KTS. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THE 6.5-7.0C RANGE IS ALSO INDICATED. WIND PROFILES ON
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LINEAR PROFILE, LIMITING ANY SPINNERS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR, THOUGH, WITH PLENTY OF TIME FOR INGREDIENTS TO
CHANGE.
WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT FOG ISSUES TONIGHT INTO MID WEEK. WITH
WARMER, MOIST FLOW OVER COOLER WATERS (WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
TO LOW 60S) OVER PROTECTED AND NEAR SHORE WATERS, ALONG WITH MODEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW, INCREASING CHANCES OF DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED. AM
ANTICIPATING DENSE FOG ADVISORIES FOR LAND AND PROTECTED/NEAR SHORE
WATERS CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S OVER MOST OF THE AREA (LOWER WHERE
THE FOG HANGS IN LONGER CLOSER TO THE COAST). SOME COOLING OCCURS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE COMING SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK.
MODEST ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK WILL KEEP ONSHORE SWELL LOW.
EVEN WITH AN INCREASING TIDAL RANGE, A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN THE COMING WEEKEND, WITH THE RIP
RISK RISING TO MODERATE TO HIGH.
/16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
SPOTTY DENSE FOG WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
BY/DURING MID MORNING. CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME OFFSHORE
FOR A SHORT PERIOD LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
SAGS SOUTH ACROSS AREA WATERS. DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED
OVER NEAR SHORE AND PROTECTED WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARM
GULF AIR FLOWS OVER COOLER GULF WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY THE
SATURDAY AND STRENGTHENS TO MODERATE TO STRONG OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 56 76 54 73 / 0 20 0 10
PENSACOLA 57 74 54 70 / 10 10 10 10
DESTIN 59 71 54 69 / 10 20 10 10
EVERGREEN 55 76 47 73 / 10 20 10 10
WAYNESBORO 56 76 50 71 / 10 20 10 10
CAMDEN 57 74 48 70 / 20 20 10 10
CRESTVIEW 54 77 49 74 / 0 10 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ051>060-
261>266.
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ067-075-
076-078-079.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ630>636-
650-655.
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