321
FXUS64 KMOB 292348
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
648 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 646 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
INCREASING TO A HIGH RISK BY THURSDAY FOR ALL LOCAL BEACHES.
- RAIN CHANCES SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THE RIP CURRENT
RISK HAS BEEN INCREASED TO MODERATE FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONCERNS
ABOUT THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN RIP
CURRENTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RISK THEN BECOMES HIGH FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR ALL AREA BEACHES. JGC/98
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
OUR TASTE OF FALL IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END AS WE SEE A PATTERN
CHANGE THE REST OF THE WEEK. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY, WITH PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY
AND TOMORROW REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80'S TO LOWER
90'S, WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY STARTING IN THE LOWER
60'S INLAND AND UPPER 60'S NEARER THE COAST. AMPLE MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAPIDLY INCREASING
DEWPOINTS, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 60'S TO
LOWER 70'S WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK, WE'LL SEE A QUICK UPTREND IN CHANCES
FOR RAIN THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS THANKS TO DEEP
LAYER SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING IN AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF ALONG WITH THE REMNANT TROUGH SPLIT AND SEVERAL OTHER SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY ROBUST ON OVERALL RAIN TOTALS THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, GENERALLY DEPICTING WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS,
LOCALLY HIGHER. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES WITH STORMS. SAMPLED FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A
DEEP, WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS SUPPORTIVE OF EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES THAT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH VERY
HIGH PWATS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EXCEEDING 2.3 TO 2.5 INCHES. IT'S
STILL EARLY TO PINPOINT WHAT AREAS SEE HIGHER OR LOWER TOTALS,
BUT GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE I CAN'T RULE OUT SOME POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS
THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS. MM/25
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR
THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO AROUND 8-12 KNOTS
OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES, POSSIBLY GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS ALONG THE
COAST. JGC/98
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY. A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY, PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS INCREASE TO 3-6 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 68 88 72 88 / 0 10 10 60
PENSACOLA 72 87 76 86 / 0 10 20 70
DESTIN 73 86 76 86 / 0 10 30 60
EVERGREEN 60 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 50
WAYNESBORO 62 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 60
CAMDEN 59 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 30
CRESTVIEW 65 90 69 89 / 0 10 10 50
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page