582
FXUS64 KMOB 130705
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
105 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 102 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
- A STRONG SYSTEM COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS.
- HIGH SURF MAY CAUSE ISSUES, PARTICULARLY IN TROUBLE SPOTS
ACROSS COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH POTENTIAL
FOR OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 102 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS OUR COASTAL
COUNTIES AND UP INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS BOUNDARY IS
HELPING TO SEPARATE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S TO ITS NORTH FROM
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 TO ITS SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS, THIS BOUNDARY WILL WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN
PUSHING OFFSHORE AND MOVING BACK ONSHORE. THE ONLY CHALLENGE THIS
BOUNDARY PRESENTS WOULD BE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM, WHERE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH
SOME SITES REPORTING VISIBILITIES BELOW A 1/4 MILE, A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR COASTAL COUNTIES. FOG SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY
OR BEFORE 7AM AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. OTHERWISE, WE WILL REMAIN
MILD AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING, WITH HIGHS TODAY
AND TOMORROW IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S SOUTHWEST.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY BEGINS TO CHANGE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH BARRELS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US. PRIOR TO THIS TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A DIFFLUENT,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS AND SPREADS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
GULF, LEADING TO A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FOR THE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL US AND WILL QUICKLY
PUSH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AS IT DEVELOPS, IT WILL HELP TO LIFT THE
AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND CONFLUENCE
BANDS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA, A
STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE LINE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY MORNING,
ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN TIMING STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AS WE GET CLOSER. GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT PLENTY OF
SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE (0-6KM SHEAR OF 50-60 KNOTS), ALONG WITH
LARGE, CURVED HODOGRAPHS YIELDING 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF 250-350 M2/S2.
ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE ARE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER, THE PROBLEM CONTINUES TO LIE WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. RATHER POOR LAPSE RATES, ALONG WITH THE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE, SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT. BY DAYBREAK, WE COULD
SEE A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR INSTABILITY VALUES TO RISE AS
DIURNAL HEATING COMMENCES PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LINE OF
STORMS. HOW MUCH HEATING WE WILL SEE WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
THIS LINE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. A FASTER LINE WOULD LEAD TO LESS
HEATING (LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES) WHEREAS A SLOWER LINE WOULD LEAD
TO HIGHER INSTABILITY VALUES. IF THE HIGHER INSTABILITY SOLUTION
PANS OUT, THEN STORMS WITHIN THE LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS, ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TORNADOES.
AFTER THE MAIN LINE PASSES, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE LOW
PUSHES OVERHEAD AND MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THESE FEATURES. WHAT'S
INTERESTING IS THAT SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT INSTABILITY
VALUES WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE OF STORMS, LIKELY DUE
TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL RESPONSE IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS. ALTHOUGH THE BEST SHEAR AND FORCING WILL
HAVE ALREADY PUSHED OFF TO OUR EAST, IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO
REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BEING
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT BY SUNDAY EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY DUE TO THE LOW
CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. WIND GUSTS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 25-35 MPH, HIGHEST
ALONG THE COAST. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO DANGEROUS
BEACH CONDITIONS, WITH SURF HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 5-8 FEET BY
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS STARTING SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK REMAIN VERY WARM, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A FEW SPOTS BY MIDWEEK COULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
AROUND 60. WITH THESE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS, DENSE FOG MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK. /96
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR MOBILE BAY AND NEAR COAST
DROPPING VISBYS TO LIFR AT TIMES. AM EXPECTING ANY FOG PRESENT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT SUNRISE TO QUICKLY MIX OUT IN THE MORNING
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 5
KNOTS DURING THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DOP TO LIGHT
SOON AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 102 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY AND STRONG
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY, ALONG WITH SEAS UP TO 7-10 FEET. IF CONFIDENCE IN
GALE FORCE GUSTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE, THEN GALE WATCHES MAY
BECOME NEEDED FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. A
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED SUNDAY NIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, GRADUALLY WANING TO A LIGHT TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 74 51 73 59 / 0 0 10 90
PENSACOLA 71 52 68 60 / 0 0 10 80
DESTIN 69 52 67 60 / 0 0 0 70
EVERGREEN 73 46 75 56 / 0 0 0 80
WAYNESBORO 72 49 75 58 / 0 0 10 90
CAMDEN 70 46 73 57 / 0 0 0 80
CRESTVIEW 75 45 73 55 / 0 0 0 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ263>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ630>632.
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