068
FXUS64 KMOB 232330
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
530 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. WIND CHILLS VALUES BOTH NIGHTS COULD RANGE FROM AS
LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS WELL INLAND TO THE TEENS NEAR THE
COAST. COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN STATES
TODAY, THEN ABSORBS A CUT OFF LOW NEAR THE BAJA AREA WHILE
PROGRESSING MAINLY INTO THE CENTRAL STATES SUNDAY MORNING. THE
UPPER TROF TAKES ON A MORE MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION WHILE MOVING
INTO THE EASTERN STATES MONDAY, THEN EJECTS OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS FROM OFF THE TEXAS
COAST UP TO ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY, AND MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
LIFTS WELL INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. SOME BIG CHANGES
TRANSPIRE MAINLY ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PASSES BY THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANWHILE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE SURFACE LOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY WHICH THEN QUICKLY CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ON SATURDAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER TO THE EAST.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FOLLOWED BY
CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY, THEN THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO
EAST MAINLY DURING SUNDAY EVENING.
PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY, HIGH SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
PRESENT FROM AN 850 MB JET NEAR 50 KNOTS, AND MLCAPE VALUES LOOK
TO INCREASE TO 500-750 J/KG MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. THIS
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SPC HAS INCLUDED THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK WHICH IS FAIR CONSIDERING
THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES. AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TYPICALLY RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 WELL INLAND TO THE MID 20S NEAR THE COAST, AND LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS INLAND TO AROUND 20 AT THE
COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING DROP TO SINGLE DIGITS WELL INLAND TO AROUND 15 MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND COASTAL ALABAMA. WIND
CHILL VALUES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TEND TO
BE AROUND 10. EXTREME COLD WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA IS WIND CHILL
VALUES 10 OR LOWER OVER INTERIOR AREAS AND 15 OR LOWER FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION, AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA IS 11-20 OVER
INTERIOR AREAS AND 16-25 OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION. GIVEN HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THESE LOW WIND CHILL VALUES AND IN ORDER TO PROVIDE
AS MUCH LEAD TIME AS POSSIBLE, WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN EXTREME
COLD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 06-18Z MONDAY. ANOTHER EXTREME
COLD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT, WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 20 WELL INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 20S AT THE COAST.
WIND CHILL VALUES EACH NIGHT LOOK SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE RISK ON SATURDAY. A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A MODERATE RISK FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY, THEN A LOW RISK IS
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. /29
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
IFR TO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST, NORTHWEST WINDS 5
TO 10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TONIGHT, THEN
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY
MORNING SWITCHES TO THE NORTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY DIMINISHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WELL OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN OVER MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BECOME
NECESSARY FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
THEN TAPERS OFF MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 47 65 57 70 / 10 70 90 100
PENSACOLA 52 66 61 72 / 10 40 70 100
DESTIN 52 65 61 71 / 10 20 50 90
EVERGREEN 42 63 55 70 / 10 50 80 100
WAYNESBORO 37 55 43 61 / 10 80 100 100
CAMDEN 38 58 49 67 / 0 70 90 100
CRESTVIEW 48 66 57 72 / 10 30 70 100
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...NONE.
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