169
FXUS64 KMOB 282319
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
519 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 515 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
- STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS COULD RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER AND WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MOVES OFF, WITH ZONAL
UPPER FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME MOVES TO THE EAST
COAST BY LATE SATURDAY, RESTORING ONSHORE FLOW TO THE FORECAST
AREA AND NEARBY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE CURRENT DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA (PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES OF 0.20-0.33")
BEGINS TO MOISTEN SATURDAY, RISING TO AROUND 1.3-1.5" SUNDAY. THE
ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST HELPS TO DIRECT THE STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WELL NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS IT MOVES
EAST FROM THE WESTERN CONUS. WEAKER IMPULSES PASS OVER THE REGION
OVER REGION SUNDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF BY MONDAY. MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF MONDAY, THEN MOVING NORTHEAST OVER/NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT (ULTIMATE PATH AND TIMING
OF PASSAGE VARY IN THE GUIDANCE). ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOWERS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW, WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND POINTS SOUTH FOR
RUMBLES TO MIX IN. WITH THE INCONSISTENCY IN THE GUIDANCE, HAVE
LESS CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE RUMBLES OCCUR OR ANY TYPES/PLACEMENT
OF ROWDY STORMS. INCONSISTENCY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST, WITH SOME MODELS ADVERTISING A PASSING
SHORTWAVE BRINGING RAIN BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
TAKING A STEP BACK AND LOOKING AT SUNDAY'S WEATHER, INSTABILITY IS
MODEST (MUCAPES < 1000J/KG) AND CONFINED TO THE COAST AND SOUTH.
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY, ALONG WITH BULK WIND SHEAR AROUND 40KTS COINCIDENT
WITH THE INSTABILITY, MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL WIND
SHEAR FOR SPINNERS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. WHERE REMAINS HARD TO PIN DOWN, WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY INLAND AS A WARM FRONT,
BUT QUICK PASSAGE OF THE PASSING ENERGY, PLUS ULTIMATE POSITIONING
OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT, NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 AT ITS MOST
NORTHERLY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO SEE A ROLLER COASTER THROUGH THE
FORECAST, WITH MID 50S TO NEAR 60 TODAY RISING TO AROUND 60
NORTHWESTERN AREAS TO LOW 70S SOUTHEAST OF I-65 SUNDAY. THE SAME
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY, THOUGH
DROPS INTO THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST OF NEW AUGUSTA TO THOMASVILLE LINE
TO THE LOW 60S OVER COASTAL FLORIDA. BY FRIDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED BACK INTO THE 60S OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES SEE THE SAME ROLLER COAST, WITH LOW TO MID 30S NORTH OF
I-10/UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH TONIGHT RISING TO THE MID 40S
NORTHEAST TO LOW 50S OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY'S SYSTEM SHIFTS THE TEMPERATURES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TO A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BANDING, WITH AROUND
40 NORTHWESTERN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE UPPER 50S
WELL SOUTH OF I-65. 30S RETURN TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT.
OFFSHORE FLOW SHIFTS TO ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND, WITH A MODERATE TO
HIGH RIP RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK.
/16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT,
THEN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS LAST INTO SATURDAY, THEN
DIMINISH. DIRECTION SHIFTS TO EASTERLY SATURDAY, THEN SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSING AREA WATERS
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHIFTS FLOW TO OFFSHORE FOR A SHORT
PERIOD. A SYSTEM PASSES OVER AREA WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING MODERATE TO STRONG VARIABLE DIRECTION WINDS BEFORE
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS FOR TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK
AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES.
/16
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO AROUND 25% ON FRIDAY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA, POTENTIALLY 20-25% OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON SATURDAY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25% ARE
ANTICIPATED MAINLY OVER INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. 20 FT WIND
SPEED VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH BOTH DAYS, AND THE
SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL VALUES WILL BE LOW OR LESS WHICH WILL
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING OR FIRE WEATHER WATCH. OUT
OF CAUTION, WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER FOR FRIDAY AS IT WAS ALREADY IN OUR KEY MESSAGES.
/29/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 40 65 52 70 / 0 0 10 40
PENSACOLA 44 63 56 72 / 0 0 10 30
DESTIN 44 65 56 71 / 0 0 10 30
EVERGREEN 32 62 45 68 / 0 0 10 40
WAYNESBORO 33 60 46 59 / 0 0 40 60
CAMDEN 33 59 43 59 / 0 0 20 60
CRESTVIEW 33 63 47 71 / 0 0 0 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
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