622
FXUS64 KMOB 300457
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1157 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
UP TO 110. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TODAY AS IT
SHIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
90S COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
108-110 IN MANY AREAS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY.
SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR IS IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST SOME AREAS MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA. BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON, AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL
MOVE WEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH STRONG
DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE
POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WE REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER DEEP
LAYER EASTERLY FLOW WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF US. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WHILE HIGHS CONTINUE TO TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY WARM THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. A LOW RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK. /13
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WANE
TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS PREVAIL OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH TOMORROW AT 5-10
KNOTS WITH SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. THESE ARE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONGER
WIND GUSTS AND DROPS OF CIGS/VIS TO MVFR AND EVEN LOCALLY IFR WITHIN
THE STRONGEST STORMS. SS/97
MARINE
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
A MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DAYTIME ONSHORE NIGHT TIME OFFSHORE
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. A PASSING UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING
AN INCREASED RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO AREA WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 75 97 76 93 / 0 40 40 30
PENSACOLA 78 96 78 92 / 0 60 40 20
DESTIN 79 95 79 91 / 0 70 30 10
EVERGREEN 75 95 74 93 / 0 60 40 30
WAYNESBORO 75 97 76 94 / 0 20 20 40
CAMDEN 76 93 75 91 / 0 30 40 20
CRESTVIEW 76 97 75 94 / 0 60 40 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
261>266.
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...NONE.
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