048
FXUS64 KMOB 090601
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
101 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE HIGHLY POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
CANADA TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. A MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE TROUGH ON FRIDAY,
GENERALLY CENTERED OVER THE ARLATEX REGION, AND SETTLE SOUTHWARD
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BY THE END OF THE NEAR
TERM. AN INVERTED TROUGH REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF ON FRIDAY, AND SHIFT
EASTWARD WHILE EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, AND
THEN INTO THE MID LEVELS AND EVENTUALLY THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES BY MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DECREASING STABILITY ON FRIDAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING
TO BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WE ANTICIPATE A GENERAL 0.5" OF TOTAL
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND UP TO 1.3" OF RAINFALL ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S INTERIOR AREAS, AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 80 DEGREES. LOW TEMPS
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ALL
AREAS, EXCEPT FOR UPPER AT THE BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY, BECOMING LOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
/22
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE TOWARD THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND WILL START TO CUT OFF. THE RESULTANT UPPER LOW
STARTS OFF RATHER ELONGATED AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO
MEANDER ALONG THE GULF THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO GO DOWN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA AS THE
LOW LIFTS OUT AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY MOVES OVERHEAD.
IN THE MEANTIME, EXPECT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN ON THE EASTERN, WETTER SIDE OF THIS
UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER, BUT WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BY MID-WEEK. 13/07
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING,
AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR BY THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. RAINFALL WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, BRINGING REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR TO, AT TIMES, IFR. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER BY THE EVENING HOURS, BECOMING LOW-END MVFR TO IFR. WINDS
WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
NO IMPACTS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT TO
MODERATE DIURNAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS,
FOLLOWED BY ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. A MORE
ESTABLISHED ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME MONDAY AND TUESDAY. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 62 77 62 77 63 80 62 82 / 60 60 40 60 60 50 20 30
PENSACOLA 67 77 67 76 67 79 68 80 / 70 70 50 70 70 50 30 30
DESTIN 68 79 68 78 69 80 69 81 / 70 80 60 70 70 60 30 30
EVERGREEN 60 77 60 77 61 82 60 82 / 50 70 40 70 70 70 40 50
WAYNESBORO 60 74 58 74 60 79 59 81 / 40 50 30 60 60 70 20 30
CAMDEN 61 74 59 73 62 79 60 79 / 40 60 40 70 70 80 40 50
CRESTVIEW 62 78 62 79 62 82 61 83 / 70 80 50 70 70 70 30 50
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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