285
FXUS64 KMOB 281814
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
114 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- INCREASING CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WITH VERY
DRY AIR, BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND DRY FUELS. MODERATE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE
COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER BUMP TO ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS EAST AND
DEAMPLIFIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND MOVE EAST OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS EAST IN RESPONSE, TO OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, LEAVING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH A DECENT
GRADIENT AND INITIALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF. A COOL AND DRYER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA MODERATES AND
MOISTENS IN THE COMING WEEK WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW. RAIN
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE, MAINLY MID WEEK ON. THE
ADVANCING UPPER RIDGE AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE (PRECIPITABLE H20
LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 1.6" BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA),
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES REMAIN POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND AS THE CONTINUED TRAIN OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING OVER THE CONUS MOVES THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.
THE NEAR SEASONAL UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
RESULTING FROM THE FRONT'S PASSAGE EARLIER TODAY RISE BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S BY MONDAY (MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH OF I-10) AND REMAIN
THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE
AROUND 50 TO UPPER 50S TONIGHT RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.
POST FRONTAL OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY SHIFTS TO SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING INCREASED SWELL TO AREA BEACHES
AN UPPER MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY
INTO MID WEEK.
/16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET. /73
MARINE
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SHIFTS TO EASTERLY, THEN SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
EXERCISE CAUTION TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED, BUT REMAINS MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
/16
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
THE SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRES AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE GROWTH ON EXISTING FIRES. THE
ONGOING SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE AREA WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE CONCERN FOR WILDFIRES. FOR THESE
REASONS, A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON SATURDAY. ANY FIRES
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY ON SATURDAY. 07/MB
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 73 55 75 59 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 73 59 70 63 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 72 56 70 62 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 72 49 71 54 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 68 50 75 55 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 68 50 70 55 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 76 51 73 56 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ051>060-
261>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.
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