395
FXUS64 KMOB 221147
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
547 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /JLH
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 419 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025/
NEAR TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
LATEST MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST EMBEDDED
WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY.
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS LIKELY DEVELOPING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS BRIEF CLEARING WILL
BE TEMPORARY WITH CLOUDS BUILDING BACK OVER THE ENTIRE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 50S OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED OVER
THE INTERIOR TO NEAR 40 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER ARIZONA THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE NOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO INDUCE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LATER
TONIGHT ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE.
THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERRUNNING RAINFALL LATER
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I-65 WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDER LOW AND MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50 WEST OF
I-65, WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING EAST RESULTING IN UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S PRIOR TO RAIN MOVING IN. /JLH
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SKIES CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS
OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S. /JLH
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND CONTINUING. THIS WILL
SUPPORT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED AS IT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY THURSDAY. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWERING FROM 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
THE MEAN. THIS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA NEXT THURSDAY. LIMITED RETURN
FLOW SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES RATHER LOW AND HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE QUICK MOVING WITH ONLY A BRIEF COOL
DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR TO FINISH OUT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /JLH
MARINE
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WITH INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST BY MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION WITH A RETURN LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. /JLH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 59 39 55 41 67 45 73 47 / 0 10 70 60 10 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 60 43 58 46 66 48 71 51 / 0 0 60 70 10 0 0 0
DESTIN 60 46 60 48 67 49 71 53 / 0 0 50 70 10 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 58 35 58 38 68 40 75 43 / 0 0 40 40 10 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 54 36 51 35 65 41 72 43 / 0 0 60 50 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 55 32 54 35 65 39 72 42 / 0 0 30 30 10 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 61 38 61 40 68 41 75 45 / 0 0 40 60 10 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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