134
FXUS64 KMOB 191810
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
110 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
- MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA WHICH LESSENS TO SLIGHT RISK ON SATURDAY.
- THERE REMAINS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
THE AREA IS STILL FEELING RESIDUAL IMPACTS FROM THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. CURRENTLY THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WORKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS IS
PROJECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.
THE HEAT HAS RETURNED FOR TODAY AND IT IS VERY STICKY OUT THERE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN LOW 80S IN SPOTS ALONG THE COAST
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90. WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES, MOBILE AND SOUTHERN
BALDWIN COUNTIES IN ALABAMA, AND COASTAL AREAS OF THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS ADVISORY LASTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR HEAT
INDICES UP TO 108. WE WILL MONITOR THE HEAT RISK FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AS VALUES CREEP UP AGAIN TOWARDS ADVISORY CRITERIA.
..THROUGH SATURDAY
THERE IS AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA IS THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND IT WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND BECOMES VERY SLOW MOVING/STALL
ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO SOME ALREADY HARD HIT AREAS FROM YESTERDAY, SO THE RISK
FOR FLOODING IS STILL HIGH TODAY GIVEN THE LINGERING IMPACTS. OUR
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM WPC IS A MODERATE FOR DAY 1 AND THE
DAY 2 RISK IS SLIGHT FOR ESSENTIALLY ALL OF THE CWA. A MARGINAL RISK
FROM THE SPC FOR SEVERE STORMS ALSO EXISTS ON TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND A WIND
RISK COULD BE REALIZED IF CONVECTION ORGANIZES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR TODAY AND TOMORROW. OUR
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO WANE. PWATS HAVE
BEEN VERY HIGH THIS WEEK IN THE 2.3-2.5 INCH RANGE AND ARE NOW
BEGINNING TO DROP. THESE WILL STEADILY DROP TO BELOW 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY AND TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY. 48 HOUR LPMMS FOR INTERIOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA SHOW A WIDESPREAD SWATH OF 2-5
INCHES. FFG IS VERY LOW GIVEN PREVIOUS DAYS OF RAINFALL AND
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS BEING COMPLETELY SATURATED. 1 HOUR FFG IS
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 2 INCHES AND 3 HOUR FFG IS NOT MUCH BETTER
TOPPING OUT AT 2.5-3 INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THERE ARE SOME AREAS
THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES AND INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WHERE THE FFG FOR 1 AND 3 HOURS IS ONLY ABOUT 1 INCH. THE EXCEPTION
IS AREAS ALONG THE COAST, GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-10, WHERE 1 HOUR FFG
IS ~4 INCHES. WE ARE STILL VERY SATURATED THROUGH ~850MB AND WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OF 15,000+ FEET WILL
STILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES TODAY WITH RAINFALL
RATES UP TO 2.5-3 INCHES/HOUR. RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY AND TOMORROW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AREAS REACHING UP TO 4-
5 INCHES WHERE CONVECTION TRAINS GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING/STALLED
BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND LOWER FFG, THE
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH TIME TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT SOME DEPENDING ON THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE OF TODAY BEFORE TOMORROWS RAINFALL.
WE CURRENTLY HAVE MULTIPLE RIVERS IN OR PROJECTED TO INCREASE TO
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WITH A MAJORITY OF RIVERS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
SOME OF OUR "FLASHIER" LOCATIONS LIKE BAYOU SARA AT SARALAND, THE
FISH RIVER, AND STYX RIVER ALREADY HAVE OR ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING AND
FORECASTED TO DROP BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING.
..SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
WE LOOK TO STAY UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE GULF THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE BROAD TROUGH PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TAKES ON MORE OF A
MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY, THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY THEN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS RETURN FOR
TUESDAY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HEAT RISK FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT AS OF NOW IT LOOKS TO STAY BELOW CRITERIA. BY MID WEEK,
TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES RETURN TO THE EASTERN CONUS
WHICH COULD BRING SOME SLIGHT HEAT RELIEF AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
..BEACH FORECAST
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH LINGERING IMPACTS
FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. ALL AREA BEACHES ARE FLYING DOUBLE RED
FLAGS AGAIN TODAY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS STILL A HIGH FOR ALL
FLORIDA AND ALABAMA BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING
MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY. NWPS SHOWS BREAKERS OF 5-6 FEET THROUGH
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR FLORIDA BEACHES. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR OUR GULF
COASTLINE.
SS/97
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A SLOW-MOVING NW-SE ORIENTED LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SPREAD
SOUTHWESTWARD TO AN EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS CURRENTLY LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS LINE WILL REACH THE TAF SITES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT ANY STORMS COULD LEAD TO SEVERE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KTS. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF BY 00-03Z. SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT, BUT MORE LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION, MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR
CEILINGS AFTER 06Z AND THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING. GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS. JGC/98
MARINE
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE GULF THIS MORNING.
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTING TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT ON
TUESDAY. SEAS AROUND 6 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 2
TO 3 FEET BY THE END OF THE WEEK. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 76 89 75 89 / 60 70 50 50
PENSACOLA 78 88 78 89 / 60 70 40 40
DESTIN 78 87 78 87 / 70 70 30 40
EVERGREEN 72 86 72 88 / 60 80 40 60
WAYNESBORO 73 86 73 89 / 60 90 50 60
CAMDEN 71 83 71 86 / 50 80 30 70
CRESTVIEW 74 88 73 89 / 70 80 20 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ261-263>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ201>206.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-
079.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ078-079.
GM...NONE.
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