929
FXUS64 KMOB 162330
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZARDS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
NOW THROUGH MONDAY...
FOR TODAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAVE
MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WELL BEHIND THE FRONT,
PRECIPITATION FELL OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT WITH A DRY LAYER
BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB, FLASH COOLING CREATED SLEET, MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. AS OF THIS WRITING, ANY REPORTED SNOW WAS
WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. POST FRONTAL FLOW IS BREEZY OVER
LAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT NOT WIND ADVISORY LEVELS.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, A SERIES OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN A MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MOVES OFF,
LEAVING THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, SHIFTING UPPER FLOW TO A DRY NORTHWESTERLY. A MODEST
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST, BRINGING WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
TO THE THE FORECAST AREA. BEST ONSHORE FLOW ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING ANY
MOISTURE INFLUX AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. MORE WEAK IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH, WITH AN UPTICK IN CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER PASSING SHORTWAVE. THE MEH
LEVELS OF MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIMIT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. MORE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
MEAN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS THE TROUGH A BIT EAST, WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTING SOUTH TO OVER THE GULF BY THE
WEEKEND. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE INFLUX SHIFTS, BRINGING MORE GULF
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
BEHIND TODAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE, A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND NEARBY. TONIGHT, FREEZING TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA LEVELS, THOUGH.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH ANY
FURTHER WWAS DEPENDING UPON WHICH AREAS DO NOT BOTTOM OUT BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT. FROM THERE, LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE UPWARDS,
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SEE THE SAME UPWARD TREND RISING FROM A WELL BELOW SEASONAL LOW TO
MID 50S TUESDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.
SWELL FROM STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF TODAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
EASE WITH THE SHIFT TO OFFSHORE FLOW, DROPPING THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS CURRENTLY TO LOW TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL KEEP ONSHORE SWELL LOW, MAINTAINING A LOW RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
/16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY CONTINUES TO PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF A POWERFUL
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE 15 TO 25
KNOT RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
STRONG TO VERY STRONG POST FRONTAL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL EASE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A GALE WARNING FOR OPEN GULF WATERS EASES
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT, BEFORE THE WHOLE SHOOTING MATCH
EASES TO A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE BY WEDNESDAY.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 31 55 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 35 55 38 59 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 36 55 40 60 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 28 54 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 28 52 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 28 50 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 29 56 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
ALZ051>060-261>264.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
FLZ201-203-205.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>636.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
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