721
FXUS64 KMOB 021144 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO A SEA BREEZE. /22
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 527 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023/
.NEW NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM...
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MEANWHILE A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER CUTOFF
LOW PRESSURE AREA VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WILL SLOWLY DROP
SOUTHWARD REACHING THE GULF COAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS
CONVECTION WILL THEN DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL THEN RESUME THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE
MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE SETTLES NEAR THE COAST. THE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECAST AS STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S,
RESULTS IN SURFACE-BASED CAPES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. A FEW
OF THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH.
INCREASED SUNSHINE TODAY WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A LOW RISK ON SATURDAY. /22
LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
THE PATTERN ALOFT DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH LOCALLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH ALOFT
REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS AS RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
IN THE WORK WEEK, RESULTING IN A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FOR THE LOCAL
AREA. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT POPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20% EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SEA BREEZE HOVERS RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST. A FEW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES RIDE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT AS WE
DIVE DEEPER INTO THE WORK WEEK AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO 20-30%
IN THE AFTERNOONS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOASTY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE HOTTEST DAY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS
SOARING INTO THE MID 90S. HEAT INDICES REMAIN MANAGEABLE AND HEAT
STRESS WON'T BE TOO MUCH OF A CONCERN NEXT WEEK.
BEACH NOTE: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE RISK
INCREASING TO MODERATE BY MONDAY NIGHT. 07/MB
MARINE...
ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF
WATERS FROM 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES THROUGH 1PM THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, A DIURNAL FLOW PATTERN RETURNING TODAY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME MAINLY LIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 90 69 92 66 93 68 89 69 / 0 10 20 0 10 0 20 0
PENSACOLA 88 71 89 70 89 71 86 71 / 0 0 20 0 10 0 10 0
DESTIN 87 72 88 71 90 71 86 72 / 0 0 20 0 10 0 10 0
EVERGREEN 90 65 92 63 93 64 91 65 / 10 10 10 0 20 10 20 10
WAYNESBORO 89 65 91 65 93 66 91 66 / 10 10 10 0 10 0 20 10
CAMDEN 87 64 90 63 92 64 90 65 / 20 20 10 0 10 10 20 10
CRESTVIEW 91 66 93 65 94 65 92 65 / 0 0 20 0 20 0 10 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ670-
675.
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