550
FXUS64 KMOB 180046
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
746 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER LAND AREAS TONIGHT BUT
REMAIN STRONG OVER THE MARINE AREAS.
- AN INCREASED WILDFIRE RISK WILL POTENTIALLY CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS RETURN TO AREA BEACHES
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A 1032MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER MISSOURI AND A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
STREAM JUST EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH THE CONTINUATION OF BRISK
WINDS OVERNIGHT. OVER THE MARINE AREAS, STRONG MIXING ASSOCIATED
WITH ENHANCED BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL KEEP GALE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ONGOING.
FURTHER INLAND, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX WITH
THESE LOCATIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE HIGH. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS INLAND TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.
CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 40S OVER THE INTERIOR, TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR, AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE BEACHES.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUSES FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE 20-60NM
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND POTENTIAL HIGH FIRE
DANGER PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE
POTENTIAL IMPACTFUL WEATHER SITUATIONS CLOSELY THIS EVENING AND
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL UPDATES AS NEEDED. /JLH
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A DEEP, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST MOVES OFFSHORE AND ORGANIZES INTO A CLOSED
SYSTEM (READ NOR'EASTER) NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTS EAST, TO OVER/NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND BUILDS. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT PROGRESS EASTWARD IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINA'S. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH TRAILING SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST,
BUT WITH A DRY AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE REGION, NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. AN ITEM TO WATCH IS SOME GUIDANCE ADVERTISING A SHIFT
IN THE WINDS TO EAST THEN SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE 850-700MB LAYER
EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK. THIS MAY BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
INLAND OVER THE I-10 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY WITH A POTENTIAL UPTICK
IN RAIN CHANCES. NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED
INTO THE COMING WEEK, HELPING TO TEMPER GREATER MOISTURE RETURN
FURTHER INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST.
A COLD AIRMASS THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS DROPPED
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A RISE IN THE COMING WEEK, WITH AROUND 70 TO
LOW 70S SUNDAY RISING TO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BY TUESDAY, WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA,
CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GOVERNED BY THE DRY AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO
BRING COOLER AIR SOUTHWEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUING TO DIVE INTO THE EAST COAST UPPER
TROUGH. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH UPPER RIDGING FURTHER WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO NEAR 80 OVER EASTERN AREAS TO THE MID
80S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE, BUT STILL REMAIN JUST BELOW
OR NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP RISK ON AREA BEACHES, A MODERATE RISK IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A HIGH RISK AS NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
GULF TRANSITION TO NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY AND REMAIN STRONG. /16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST AND AT OUR TAF SITES. THIS WILL KEEP BRISK NORTH
WINDS BLOWING OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
8-13 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS, ESPECIALLY AT KPNS
AND POTENTIALLY KBFM WITH GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE NEARBY WARM
WATERS OF MOBILE BAY AND THE GULF. WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE BY
MID SUNDAY MORNING AS DEEP MIXING COMMENCES HELPING TO BRING DOWN
HIGHER WINDS ALOFT IN GUSTS BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /JLH
MARINE
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY OVER PROTECTED WATERS, STRONG NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
OVER OPEN GULF WATERS. THE CURRENT GALES OVER MARINE WATERS WILL
TRANSITION TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS OVER
OPEN GULF WATERS WILL MEAN A SC.Y OR SCEC OVER OPEN GULF WATERS
INTO MID WEEK. /16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 70 51 71 50 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 72 55 71 53 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 72 57 71 55 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 70 48 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 69 46 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 67 46 68 45 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 70 50 69 49 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ263>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ630>636-650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ650-655.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ670-675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
GMZ670-675.
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