709
FXUS64 KMOB 222346
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
546 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
- WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MAINLY SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA. FORECAST TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
- BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S. WIND CHILLS VALUES BOTH NIGHTS COULD RANGE FROM
AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS WELL INLAND TO THE TEENS NEAR THE
COAST.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF EVOLVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY AND ABSORBS A CUT OFF LOW NEAR THE BAJA AREA
BEFORE PROGRESSING INTO THE CENTRAL STATES. THE UPPER TROF
CONTINUES INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON MONDAY THEN EJECTS OFF INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA OVER INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
ALABAMA SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT, THEN FOR
FRIDAY WILL HAVE SIMILAR POPS EXCEPT FOR DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
WEST OF I-65 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS
NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY, BECOMING
ORIENTED ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CONTINUING FURTHER NORTHWARD SATURDAY
EVENING. A SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS COAST SATURDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA BY SUNDAY
MORNING THEN MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER ON SUNDAY,
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
PROCESS. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY, WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER THE WESTERNMOST PORTION, THEN LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
ON SUNDAY.
WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE
LOW, THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO TRAVERSE
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, WHICH THEN INCREASES THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION AS COLDER AIR SURGES INTO
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW. AT THIS TIME, WE ARE
CONTINUING TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A CHANCE FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA MAINLY DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND IS ANTICIPATED TO END BEFORE THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE. ANY ACCUMULATION OF GLAZE OR SNOW LOOKS
VERY LIMITED, IF ANY, SO AT MOST ANTICIPATE THAT A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
WEATHER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP
STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS IS
ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED, BUT ABUNDANT FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT WITH AN 850
MB JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. THE LREF IS CURRENTLY INDICATING ONLY 1-5%
CHANCE OF SBCAPE VALUES OF 500+ J/KG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR ABOUT A 10% CHANCE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
CONSIDERING THIS, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AT THIS POINT.
VERY COLD AIR FLOWS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S AT THE COAST, AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT
COLDER AND RANGE FROM MID/UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID
20S AT THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES DROP TO ABOUT 5-15 ALONG AND
WEST OF I-65 BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH VALUES OF 15-20 FURTHER
TO THE EAST. WIND CHILL VALUES DROP TO 9-15 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH/WARNING IS
ISSUED FOR WIND CHILL VALUES OF 10 OR LOWER OVER INTERIOR AREAS
AND 15 OR LOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUES FOR WIND CHILL VALUES OF 11-20 OVER
INTERIOR AREAS AND FOR VALUES OF 16-25 OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE FORECAST WIND CHILL VALUES, ANTICIPATE
THAT A BLEND OF EXTREME COLD WATCH/WARNING AND COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
LOW RISK FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ON SATURDAY INCREASES TO A HIGH RISK ON SUNDAY, THEN
DECREASES TO A MODERATE RISK ON MONDAY. /29
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
IFR CEILINGS NORTH OF I-10 WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. LOCALIZED LIFR
CEILINGS AND IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE INTO THE MID-MVFR RANGE BY NOON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH
VFR VISIBILITIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT TO A LIGHT NORTH WIND OVERNIGHT. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY. A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT STRENGTHENS SUNDAY MORNING
THEN SWITCHES TO THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH A STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT MAY NEE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 55 67 48 67 / 30 30 20 50
PENSACOLA 59 68 53 67 / 30 40 30 30
DESTIN 58 67 53 65 / 20 40 20 20
EVERGREEN 51 64 43 65 / 40 40 20 40
WAYNESBORO 48 60 39 59 / 20 10 20 60
CAMDEN 48 59 40 61 / 40 20 10 50
CRESTVIEW 53 69 48 67 / 30 40 20 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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