861
FXUS64 KMOB 201146
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
646 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- LOCALIZED PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
VERY LOCALIZED DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT OVER
THE NEXT HALF OUR TO HOUR. USE CAUTION WHEN COMMUTING THIS
MORNING. BB-8
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND NORTHEAST GULF. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
MODERATE WITH PWATS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. A
CONTINUOUS STREAM OF UPPER MINI-SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
STEADY INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ALONG
AND WEST OF I-65. ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR INLAND AREAS, FOLLOWED BY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, FOR THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AGAIN
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG AND WEST OF I-65.
THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MENTIONED EARLIER PERSISTING ALL
WEEK DOES MAINTAIN SOME BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA
THAT SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY TO AREAS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO BETWEEN 1 TO 3 MILES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING, WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG NOT BEING
RULED OUT. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
POTENTIALLY BEING IMPACTED BY AREAS OF DENSE FOG, WE WILL JUST
NEED TO SEE HOW THING UNFOLD BEFORE NEEDING ANY DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 80S TO
LOWER 90S TODAY AND THURSDAY. THESE HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 6
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL
VALUES. LOWS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST.
THESE LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 6 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /22
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISBYS ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR THIS MORNING AS FOG AND LOW
STRATUS QUICKLY MIXES OUT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO LOCALIZED
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. /13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 88 71 86 72 / 10 10 40 40
PENSACOLA 87 73 86 74 / 10 0 20 20
DESTIN 85 73 85 75 / 10 0 10 10
EVERGREEN 91 69 90 69 / 30 20 30 10
WAYNESBORO 88 69 87 70 / 40 30 60 50
CAMDEN 89 69 88 69 / 20 30 50 30
CRESTVIEW 91 68 90 69 / 20 0 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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