862
FXUS64 KMOB 212328
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
628 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
- THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY VALUES, POTENTIALLY GUSTY
WINDS, AND MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT MAY LEAD TO DANGEROUS
FIRE CONDITIONS TODAY.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR LOCAL AREA BEACHES.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES CONTINUES SLOWLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST PROMOTES A
LIGHT, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. BASED ON CAMS, THE SHORTWAVE TROF
LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER TROF MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND
BECOMES ORIENTED ROUGHLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
STATES BY FRIDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EJECTED DOWNSTREAM FROM
THIS FEATURE LEAD TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA BY SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO DRIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A WEAK
COLD FRONT BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN
LOOKS TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WHICH INCREASE TO MOSTLY LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE LOW THROUGH SUNDAY,
BUT WITH AN INCREASE IN THE 850 MB JET TO 20-30 KNOTS FOR MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THIS INDICATES THAT SOME STRONG STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S, THEN TREND TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S AT THE COAST THEN
SLOWLY TREND TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY MONDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN A HIGH
RISK FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A MODERATE RISK IS
IN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. /29
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS TONIGHT,
BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTING 15
TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES
PREDOMINATELY SOUTHEASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY, THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
THIS WEEKEND. /29
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON DROP TO 20-25% MAINLY OVER
INTERIOR AREAS, BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, 20FT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS OF 15 MPH FOR MISSISSIPPI,
16 MPH FOR WESTERN FLORIDA, AND 15 MPH FOR ALABAMA (AND ALSO
BELOW 20 MPH GUSTS). MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA, AND A HIGH RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL IS IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY. A FIRE ALERT IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALABAMA, BUT
PER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND CONSIDERING WIND
SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW CRITERIA, WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS FIRE CONDITIONS.
/29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 59 81 59 81 / 0 10 0 10
PENSACOLA 62 78 63 78 / 0 10 0 10
DESTIN 63 77 64 77 / 0 10 0 10
EVERGREEN 54 83 54 85 / 0 20 0 10
WAYNESBORO 57 81 56 83 / 0 20 0 0
CAMDEN 57 82 57 83 / 0 10 0 0
CRESTVIEW 55 83 54 84 / 0 10 0 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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