454
FXUS64 KMOB 221902
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
202 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
MULTIPLE WEATHER STATIONS FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS
OF MOBILE CO HAVE RECEIVED UPWARDS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL
SINCE THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING AS ORGANIZED STORMS HAVE MOVED
LITTLE. THE NET RESULT HAS BEEN FLOODING PROBLEMS WITH NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF CARS STALLED IN HIGH WATER. UNFORTUNATELY RADAR TRENDS
INDICATE NEW DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM WHICH WILL HAMPER ANY SHORT TERM
EASING OF WATER. BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SHORT FUSED FLOOD WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES AND UPDATES; BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY. IF FLOODED
ROADS ARE ENCOUNTERED, TURN AROUND AND FIND ANOTHER ROUTE.
BEACH FLAGS ARE NOW FLYING RED (HIGH RIP CURRENTS) FOR GULF
SHORES BEACHES AND HAVE UPDATED SURF ZONE PRODUCT TO REFLECT
UPDATE. /10
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
22.12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOW A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW AT HIGHER
LEVELS ATOP THE AREA. A COMPLEX, BROAD UPPER TROF IS POSITIONED OVER
THE PLAINS. EMBEDDED IN A SHORT-WAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL NEGATIVE TILT
ORIENTED TROF, A LEAD IMPULSE WILL EJECT NORTH NORTHEAST UP ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. IN ITS WAKE THOUGH,
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT HIGH LEVELS REMAINS IN PLACE AND WITH THAT COMES
THE PATH FOR A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES TO CONTINUE EJECTING
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE MEAN
UPPER FLOW. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES AND SEVERAL INCH AN HOUR RAINFALL RATES WHICH WILL CAUSE
WATER TO PILE UP, ESPECIALLY IN LOWER LYING AREAS THAT HAVE
DRAINAGE ISSUES AND CAN'T KEEP UP. BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SHORT
FUSED FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES; BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY.
AN ASSESSMENT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VIA NEAR- BY 22.12Z SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PWAT'S 1.8 TO 2.0" AND NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN FOR MAY 22ND LAYER MOISTURE. THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE
SHORT- RANGE ENSEMBLES THAT PWAT'S WILL FLUCTUATE HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND TO A RANGE OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES ON AVERAGE WHICH IS
STILL 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR LATE MAY. WITH
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, THE
COMBINATION OF ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES ATOP WEAKLY REFLECTED SURFACE BASED MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES SUGGESTS THAT WEEKEND PLANS WILL NEED TO INVOLVE AN
UMBRELLA. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW WITH THE RISK OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND INSTANCES OF FLOODING BEING THE MAIN
FOCUS. THE LATEST DAY ONE EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK UPDATE ENDING 12Z
SAT 5/23 HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO SLIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THE SET-UP IN PLACE, FAVORS THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THIS PATTERN IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. CERTAINLY GOOD NEWS FOR
A DROUGHT STRICKEN CENTRAL GULF COAST.
WITH CLOUDS AND ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE PERIOD, MAINLY RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 80'S
AND GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE MAY SEASONAL NORMALS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS. MID/UPPER 60'S INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 70'S
COAST.
LATEST BEACH FLAGS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST FL BEACHES ARE FLYING
RED AND HAVE UPDATED THE SURF ZONE FORECAST TO TO REFLECT HIGH
RISK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WITH CONSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND
SWELL VARYING IN STRENGTH, WILL KEEP THE RIP RISK AT MODERATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CAN'T RULE OUT HIGH ACTIVITY FROM TIME
TO TIME. /10
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
DEEP CONVECTION REDUCING VSBYS IN +RA TO LIFR/VLIFR CATEGORIES
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KMOB TERMINAL WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD
TRANSLATION AND SHOULD SOON BE MOVING INTO KBFM. BRIEF STRONG
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS LIKELY. FURTHER EAST AT KJKA/KPNS TERMINALS,
WEATHER IS MORE BENIGN IN THE NEAR TERM WITH CIGS GENERALLY MVFR.
A COMPLEX FORECAST TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA TERMINALS AS CONVECTION
LOOKS MORE SCATTERED. WILL MONITOR. /10
MARINE
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST FAVORS LIGHT, TO AT TIMES MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHEST SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FEET. /10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 72 86 71 84 / 50 70 20 90
PENSACOLA 74 84 73 84 / 40 50 20 60
DESTIN 74 83 73 84 / 60 60 20 40
EVERGREEN 70 85 69 86 / 40 90 20 80
WAYNESBORO 69 85 68 83 / 50 70 50 90
CAMDEN 69 84 68 83 / 50 80 40 90
CRESTVIEW 70 87 70 88 / 50 80 10 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page