150
FXUS64 KMOB 080639 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
133 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 130 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
- HURRICANE/STORM SURGE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST.
HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM WATCHES EXPANDED INLAND.
- TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY.
- INCREASING CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL AREA
FROM ISAIAS INCLUDING HIGH WINDS, HIGH SURF, RIP CURRENTS, STORM
SURGE, FLASH FLOODING, AND TORNADOES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR COASTAL COUNTIES ALONG
WITH ESCAMBIA, AND COVINGTON COUNTIES IN ALABAMA. TIMING IS 18Z
FRIDAY TO 18Z SATURDAY.
/16
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY ISAIAS, WHICH
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF, AND AS OF 03Z/10PM, IS A
TROPICAL STORM. ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE NORTHEAST, THEN
NORTH FROM ITS CURRENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, MOVING ONSHORE IN THE MOBILE CWA COASTAL AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SHIFT IN THE FORECASTED POINT OF
MOVING ONSHORE, CURRENTLY NEAR PENSACOLA, WITH THE 10PM/03Z NHC
ISSUANCE. THE MOVEMENT OF ISAIAS IS GOVERNED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING
WEST OVER FLORIDA, WITH THE ULTIMATE PATH LEANING TOWARDS AI MODELS.
HOW THIS CONTENTION BETWEEN UPPER LOW AND RIDGE PLAYS OUT WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN PATH AS ISAIAS MOVES ONSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING DRIER AIR BEING INGESTED SATURDAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST, WITH HIGHER POPS SHIFTING EAST AND NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO ADDRESS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
FUTURE ISSUANCES, WITH THE POSSIBLITY COMING INTO THE 48HR TIME
FRAME. WILL LET DAY SHIFT HANDLE THIS FOR NOW. WITH THE 10PM
ISSUANCE, THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR AREA WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES
HAS BEEN UPDATED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. OTHERWISE, NO WWA CHANGES
MADE.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S
THURSDAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 TO AROUND 70
ALONG THE COAST AREA EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS ISAIAS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS, THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SHIFTS WEST TO
OVER THE GULF. A DRY AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
ISAIAS. COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE, HIGH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
AROUND 60 WELL INLAND TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, ISAIAS WILL
BRING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE EASING TO A
MODERATE ON MONDAY.
/16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS ON THURSDAY OVER
INTERIOR AREAS, AND TO AROUND 10 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND NORTHWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ISAIAS IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS DETERIORATE AND SEAS BECOME VERY
HIGH AT THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK AS ISAIAS APPROACHES AND MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 85 68 79 65 / 0 0 60 90
PENSACOLA 83 71 79 69 / 10 10 70 100
DESTIN 84 71 80 70 / 10 20 70 100
EVERGREEN 86 63 81 61 / 0 0 50 90
WAYNESBORO 87 62 83 61 / 0 0 30 90
CAMDEN 86 60 82 59 / 0 0 30 90
CRESTVIEW 83 66 77 63 / 0 10 70 100
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ALZ052>055-057-058.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALZ056-059-060.
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ALZ059-060-261>266.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALZ261>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
STORM SURGE WARNING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
FLZ201>206.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
STORM SURGE WARNING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MSZ076-079.
GM...HURRICANE WARNING FOR GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.
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