068
FXUS64 KMOB 261110
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
610 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
- INCREASING CONCERN FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY FOR
COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THINGS ARE MUCH QUIETER RIGHT
NOW COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY, BUT THAT WILL ONLY BE
TEMPORARY AS THE EXPECTATION REMAINS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CONFLUENCE BAND CURRENTLY EXISTS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PERSIST AS
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LATEST VAD REVEALS A
FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR MINI SPINNIES, HOWEVER WITHOUT ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING AND LITTLE INSTABILITY THE EXPECTATION IS FOR
THINGS TO STAY TAME THROUGH DAYBREAK.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STARTING
TO HONE IN ON A CORRIDOR OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EXISTING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY
WHERE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVER 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL. IF
STORMS SIT AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS, LOCAL TOTALS COULD BE
MUCH HIGHER, POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 10 INCHES. CERTAINLY SOMETHING
TO MONITOR AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. MM/25
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WET IS THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WATERLOGGED COMMUNITIES WON'T GET MUCH OF A BREAK IN THIS
PATTERN AS WE ANTICIPATE MULTIPLE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO MORE FLOODING CONCERNS.
RIGHT ON TIME, AS OF 05Z, ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, STREAMING INLAND FROM THE
COAST. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL DAYBREAK (ROUGHLY 10-12Z) BEFORE
CONVECTION REALLY BEGINS TO FLARE UP ALONG THE COASTLINE. THE LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THE STORMS WILL STREAMING INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FIRST IN THE MORNING BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SIMILAR TO
THE PAST FEW DAYS, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS BEING THE PREDOMINANT THREAT (ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE TODAY IF IT CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
ENVIRONMENT). THAT SAID, FLOODING IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY...AND
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RECENT HREF LOCALIZED PROBABILITY-MATCHED
MEAN (LPMM) FOR QPF SHOWS ANOTHER FEW BULLSEYES OF 4-7 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION YET AGAIN TODAY, WHICH IS REALLY
STARTING TO BECOME CONCERNING GIVEN HOW MUCH RAINFALL HAS FALLEN
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
A WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ALOFT PARKED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. DEEP ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS WITH PWATS SURGING TO OVER 2.0
INCHES AT TIMES. MULTIPLE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT, PROVIDING AMPLE ASCENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WE ANTICIPATE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
STORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING THIS WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE RAINFALL RATES ALONG WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
STORMS (SLOWER STORMS OR STORMS THAT REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC). STORMS WILL EASILY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
BEACH FORECAST - GIVEN THE CONSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SIGNAL OVER THE
COMING DAYS, THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY FOR THE COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
OFFSHORE STORMS WILL ONLY ACT TO AMPLIFY THE SURF AND RIP CURRENTS
EACH DAY. 07/MB
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY GENERALLY PERSISTS HERE AT DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT IN THE COMING HOURS TO
MVFR, REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, LIKELY REDUCING FLIGHT CATEGORY AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY
UNDER ANY HEAVIER STORMS. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS, GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS NEARER THE COAST. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 3 TO 4 FEET THROUGH MIDWEEK. SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 82 72 86 72 / 90 50 60 30
PENSACOLA 82 75 84 75 / 90 40 40 30
DESTIN 83 75 84 75 / 80 50 60 30
EVERGREEN 81 70 86 70 / 90 50 80 20
WAYNESBORO 83 71 85 70 / 90 30 80 50
CAMDEN 80 70 84 69 / 100 40 80 30
CRESTVIEW 81 70 87 71 / 90 50 70 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...NONE.
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