950
FXUS64 KMOB 081834
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
134 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 134 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY RISKS FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THESE HIGHER WINDS HAVE
RESULTED IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG OUR AREA BEACHES
TODAY, AND THIS RISK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AFTER WE RECEIVE THE 12Z RCMOS PROBABILITY GUIDANCE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THE RISK TO HIGH.
THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WILL KEEP OUR AREA RAINFREE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN BREAKDOWN AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO FORM OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF, EASTERN TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY AND CARRY FORWARD IN THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO INCREASE PWATS
BACK TO AROUND 2.1-2.25", RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AT TIME TIME WE
ARE EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY
(POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR COASTAL COMMUNITIES), FOLLOWED
BY NUMEROUS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE CAN'T
RULE OUT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WHERE STORMS POSSIBLY TRAIN OR SIT OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR
PROLONGED PERIODS, WITH THE GREATEST RISK SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RANGING FROM 89-94
DEGREES WILL LOWER A COUPLE OF DEGREES THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGH THE FORECAST. /22
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ON THE GULF SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WILL SUBSIDE TO
AROUND 1 FOOT THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 74 91 74 89 / 0 10 20 80
PENSACOLA 77 91 77 89 / 0 10 40 70
DESTIN 77 91 78 88 / 0 10 40 70
EVERGREEN 72 94 72 93 / 0 0 10 60
WAYNESBORO 72 95 72 95 / 0 0 0 40
CAMDEN 72 93 73 93 / 0 0 0 40
CRESTVIEW 73 92 73 91 / 0 0 10 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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