366  
FXUS64 KMOB 051112  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
612 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
   
AVIATION /05.12Z ISSUANCE/
 
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG  
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS  
AND ALONG THE COAST. FOG DISSIPATES BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS  
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD/DEVELOP INLAND DURING THE COURSE  
OF THE DAY. GENERAL VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY  
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS  
MORNING THEN MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATER TODAY AND  
TONIGHT. /12  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 439 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022/  
 
NEAR TERM UPDATE /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE,  
CURRENTLY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION, WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD  
TODAY, BEFORE ANCHORING ITSELF OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON  
WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL  
SLOWLY PUSH OVERHEAD AS THEY PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF  
THE RIDGE, BUT BECOMING LESS FREQUENT BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE,  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR  
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE  
REGION, WITH PWATS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM 2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES. PWATS  
DECREASE A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY (AROUND 1.8 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN  
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN  
HALF) AS SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE REGION, THANKS  
TO THE REPOSITIONING OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL  
REMAIN PRESENT BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH MLCAPES RANGING FROM  
1500 TO 2500 J/KG FOR BOTH AFTERNOONS.  
 
WITH SIMILAR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY VALUES IN PLACE, AS WELL AS  
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD, TODAY LOOKS TO BE A CARBON  
COPY OF YESTERDAY, AND IN FACT THE PREVIOUS 5 OR 6 DAYS FOR THAT  
MATTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER  
PORTIONS OF OUR MARINE ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING,  
WITH THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD  
AS STORMS PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL,  
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. THIS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF  
SOUTHWEST AL AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS WHERE THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE  
SHOULD BE HIGHEST TODAY AND WHERE THE PREVIOUS 24 HOUR RAINFALL  
TOTALS HAVE BEEN IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES IN SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS.  
BY THIS EVENING, ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND  
INTENSITY AS INSTABILITY DECREASES DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME  
HEATING. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WET AND  
UNSETTLED PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A NORMAL  
SUMMERTIME PATTERN. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP  
OFFSHORE AND ALONG OUR COASTAL ZONES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,  
HOWEVER, COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. BY LATE  
WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO  
DEVELOP, MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES INLAND.  
HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES,  
WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO RESIDE. WITH  
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR PUSHING IN ABOVE 850MB, A FEW STRONGER STORMS  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS  
DCAPES LOOK TO INCREASE TO AROUND 800 TO 1000 J/KG.  
 
HIGHS FOR BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG  
THE COAST AND LOWER 90S INLAND. AT THIS TIME, HEAT INDICES FOR BOTH  
DAYS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (GENERALLY AROUND  
98 TO 103 DEGREES, WITH LOCALIZED VALUES UP TO 105 DEGREES). LOWS  
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES  
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LASTLY, A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /12/96  
 
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL  
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY  
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST, TOWARDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING  
NORTH OVER THE US ROCKIES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, LEAVING A  
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST.  
REASON IS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ON THE  
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,  
ALONG WITH A MEAN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A  
SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO  
WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EVEN  
WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OVER THE THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST, SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW IN THE MID  
AND UPPER LEVELS MOVES IN DRIER AIR, WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES  
DROPPING BELOW 2", INTO THE 1.7"-1.9" RANGE FOR MOST OF THE SHORT  
TERM. WITH MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASING AND THE UPPER PATTERN  
DIRECTING ANY PASSING SHORTWAVES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA, RAIN  
CHANCES DECREASE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  
DECREASING DAYTIME CONVECTION AND STILL PRESENT UPPER SUBSIDENCE  
WILL LET HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS  
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AROUND 90 TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY,  
AROUND 90 TO THE UPPER 90S FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS  
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR HEAT INDICES TO RISE INTO THE 100-015  
DEGREE RANGE FOR THURSDAY, 102-107 FOR FRIDAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER  
LEVELS LIKELY EACH DAY. LOW TO MID 70S WELL INLAND, UPPER 70S TO  
AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHTS.  
 
MLCAPES RISE INTO THE 2000-2500J/KG THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COMBINED  
WITH DCAPES RISING INTO THE 700-900J/KG RANGE, STRONGER TO  
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. DRIER AIR IN THE MID  
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. WITH WEAK WIND  
SHEAR, ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH  
CONVECTION OF THE PULSE SEVERE TYPE. DECREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE  
WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF WATER ISSUES. AM STILL EXPECTING WATER  
ISSUES TO BE POSSIBLE IN POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES.  
/16  
 
EXTENDED TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE  
MOVES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE  
INTO THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,  
DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE PROCESS ALONG WITH SHIFTING THE  
TROUGH WEST. THIS SHIFTS UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO NORTHERLY OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST, AND DIRECTING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SOUTH OVER  
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING  
WEEK. MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS A WEAK  
SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE  
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE LEVELS RISING BACK ABOVE 2" AND MORE  
PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE  
EXTENDED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SEE A DOWNWARD TREND WITH THE  
INCREASING CONVECTION, ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEAT INDICES. SATURDAY'S  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, WITH  
HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT IN THE 102-107 DEGREE RANGE. FROM THERE,  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS EARLY IN  
THE COMING WEEK.  
/16  
 
MARINE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEAR  
SHORE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING, BECOMING A LITTLE LESS  
NUMEROUS LATER TODAY AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS INLAND. COVERAGES OF  
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL LOWER SOMEWHAT INTO THE  
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS  
MORNING, BUT A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED. /12  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MOB  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab AL Page
The Nexlab FL Page
The Nexlab MS Page Main Text Page