494
FXUS64 KMOB 200004
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
704 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 703 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
- ABNORMALLY HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR ALL LOCATIONS THURSDAY AS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
RISE INTO THE 108 TO 112 RANGE. ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR AREA BEACHES IN
FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
SCATTERED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PERSISTING A
BIT LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY AROUND MOBILE
BAY AND OVER INTERIOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO BACKBUILD, LEADING TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING. STRATIFORM RAIN IS ALSO PERSISTING ACROSS THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAIN FALL EARLIER TODAY. ANY
LINGERING STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. JGC/98
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
WE ISSUED THE NEXT HEAT ADVISORY FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S, AND WHEN COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 73 TO
77 DEGREES, MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) SHOULD
RANGE FROM 105-110 DEGREES. THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY, SO
EXPECTED MORE HEAT ADVISORIES TO COME.
FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WE HAVE SEEN CONVECTION DEVELOP INLAND
EACH AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHWARD, WITH MANY PRODUCING DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. WE EXPECT THE SAME FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS AS WE REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AS DAYTIME HEATING LEADS
TO DECREASING STABILITY EACH AFTERNOON, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG TO MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS SBCAPE
VALUES ESCALATE TO AROUND 3,000 TO 4,000J/KG. AS A RESULT, THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOKED FOR OUR AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY IS A WAIT AND
SEE SITUATION.
WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH REACHING IT'S SOUTHERNMOST
EXTENT (INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF) BY THE WEEKEND, THIS WILL
PLACE OUR REGION IN A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN, ADVECTING IN A
DRIER AIR MASS WITH PWATS DIPPING BELOW 1.5 INCHES. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THIS WON'T HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON THE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND
HEAT INDICES TO WHERE ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED. IN ADDITION,
THERE IS A MUCH LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS, SO IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE
A NICE WEEKEND.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK GRADUALLY TAPERS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK, WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
BECOMING A LOW RISK BY FRIDAY. A LOW RISK WILL REMAIN FOR THE
ALABAMA COASTLINE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /22
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 30-50 KNOTS AND IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH AROUND 02Z.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN BECOME VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY, SHIFTING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS
OVER 15 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST. JGC/98
MARINE
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY
LATE EACH NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO POTENTIALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS AND WINDS NEAR STORMS. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 76 95 75 95 / 10 30 10 40
PENSACOLA 79 94 78 93 / 10 30 20 40
DESTIN 80 93 79 92 / 10 40 10 30
EVERGREEN 73 98 72 97 / 20 40 30 60
WAYNESBORO 74 99 73 98 / 20 30 20 50
CAMDEN 74 97 73 95 / 10 30 30 50
CRESTVIEW 74 96 73 96 / 10 40 20 50
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
261>266.
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ201>206.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-
079.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...NONE.
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