206
FXUS64 KMOB 140600
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
100 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH RAIN RETURNING
IN THE COMING WEEK.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS AND LOWS TREND WARMER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
THROUGH SATURDAY...A MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST MOVES
OFF, AS A STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES SHIFT AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS SOUTH TO OVER MEXICO AND THE GULF. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
USHERING IN A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS SOUTH, A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST, BRINGING A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW TO THE COAST AND
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGINNING TO RISE. THE BEST ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DRIER
AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER DAYTIME HEATING AND NIGHT TIME
COOLING, WITH A LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE THE RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SEE A BIT OF A COOL DOWN THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
(UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84, LOW 80S ALONG
THE COAST), BUT RISE BACK TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SATURDAY
(LOW TO MID 80S). LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH THE BETTER COOLING, THEN SLOW RISE TO AROUND 60 TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY INTO THE COMING WEEK, THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST,
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE BETTER
MOISTURE THAT HAS MOVED INLAND OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY SHIFTS EAST AS MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AND NEARBY. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE IN THE
COMING WEEK, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURE RISE TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN
THE COMING WEEK, TO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH AN UPTICK IN A FEW DEGREES IN THE COMING WEEK.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, GENERAL
NORTHERLY FLOW TRANSITIONING TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP ANY
SWELL ON AREA BEACHES LOW INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A LOW RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS EXPECTED. ONSHORE FLOW ON AREA BEACHES BECOMES MORE
ORGANIZED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK, WITH A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS RETURNING TUESDAY.
/16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
NO IMPACTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY. A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH
THURSDAY TURNS MORE ONSHORE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS TO TREND 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. /10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 83 57 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 82 61 80 64 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 82 61 79 64 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 80 49 84 54 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 81 54 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 78 50 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 83 51 85 54 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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