644
FXUS64 KMOB 210057
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
757 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 747 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- LOCALIZED PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 757 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
AREA RADARS CONTINUE TO DETECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR WARNING AREA. MOST OF THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD OUT OF OUR AREA, BUT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK STORM OR TWO SHOULD LINGER
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THOSE
AREAS. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK WITH THE
CONVECTION AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS, SO NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. /22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET SETS UP ALONG AND
WEST OF OUR LOCAL AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES, EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET, WILL QUICKLY PASS NEAR/OVER THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD, ALONG WITH
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS GENERALLY RANGING AROUND 1.6-2.0
INCHES) AND STRONG DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING EACH DAY DUE TO
DIURNAL HEATING, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY, AND BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES WEST OF I-65 (DUE TO
THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SUBTROPICAL JET). DUE TO LIMITED
SHEAR, STORMS SHOULD BE RATHER PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE, AND
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID, AS WE TYPICALLY SEE WITH
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, AS WELL
AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SLOW-MOVING
NATURE OF THESE STORMS, AS WELL AS THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE, MAY
LEAD TO STORMS BEING EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. IF A FEW
STORMS MANAGE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS REACHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK. LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD AND HUMID, WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND AND THE LOW TO
MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. CANNOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT, MAINLY OVER INLAND COUNTIES, DUE TO
SATURATED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS AND CALM WINDS. A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. /96
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT THERE
WILL BE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN AND
AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 84. LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 08Z INLAND AREAS AND SPREAD IN COVERAGE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND
IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP
INLAND AREAS ON THURSDAY, AGAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS
IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 5-10
KNOTS WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 3 FEET. NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. 98/96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 70 86 72 84 / 10 30 40 70
PENSACOLA 73 86 74 84 / 0 10 30 50
DESTIN 73 85 74 84 / 0 0 10 30
EVERGREEN 70 89 70 86 / 20 40 20 70
WAYNESBORO 69 87 70 83 / 40 60 50 80
CAMDEN 69 87 69 83 / 40 50 20 80
CRESTVIEW 69 90 70 88 / 0 10 10 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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