396
FXUS64 KMOB 101415
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
915 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 915 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM FOR THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
- MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THIS MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
BASED ON BEACH WEB CAMS AND THE LATEST DATA, HAVE CANCELLED THE
HIGH SURF WARNING FOR THE ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
BEACHES, AND GONE WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR SURF HEIGHTS UP TO
5 FEET. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE MARINE
AREA AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED, ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION THIS MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA. MADE
OTHER MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
A STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OKALOOSA COASTAL. THE
STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ESCAMBIA COASTAL AND
SANTA ROSA COASTAL. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
EAST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER TONIGHT, EXCLUDING BALDWIN COUNTY, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF OUR
WARNING AREA.
LINGERING FLOOD WATERS ARE LIKELY PERSISTING ACROSS THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXTENDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE 6-12"
OF RAIN FELL OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE LANDFALL OF
ISAIAS. THESE SHOULD BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THOUGH AS THE HEAVY
RAIN HAS COME TO AN END. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
EARLY THIS MORNING AS ISAIAS HAS TRANSITIONED TO A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT PHASES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS IT DOES SO,
THE CENTER WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF ALABAMA LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE BEING EJECTED
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA, BUT WILL MOSTLY COME TO AN END BEFORE SUNRISE LATER THIS
MORNING. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP IN FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH PW
VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR THE 25TH PERCENTILE (~0.96") BY THIS
EVENING.
LINGERING CLOUD COVER, BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS, AND
COOL 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RELEGATE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION. THANKS TO
THE EFFICIENT COOLING OF DRIER AIR, LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S CLOSER TO
THE BAYS AND THE COAST. TEMPERATURES RETURN BACK INTO THE 80S ON
SUNDAY, THEN CONTINUE ON AN UPWARD TREND GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK
AS A RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS/NORTHWESTERN GULF
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PAIRS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND PERSISTENT DRY AIR [PW VALUES NEAR
THE 10TH PERCENTILE SUNDAY (~0.73")] LEADING TO AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO PEAK
BACK INTO THE LOW 90S BY MONDAY AND PERSIST IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW
90S THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON A
STEADY UPWARD TREND INTO THE 60S BY MIDWEEK.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE MID LEVEL HIGH WILL TRANSITION
OVERHEAD. DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT IFFY ON IF IT
REMAINS OVERHEAD AND KEEPS US WARM AND DRY OR IF IT CONTINUES TO
TRANSITION EASTWARD. THE LATTER OF THOSE SOLUTIONS WOULD OPEN THE
DOOR FOR A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES AND/OR A FRONTAL PASSAGE GOING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS ALWAYS, QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
THIS FAR OUT, SO IT'S TOO EARLY TO LOCK IN EITHER OF THESE
SCENARIOS RIGHT NOW.
BATISTE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. 2000 FOOT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KNOTS, MAINLY
OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
AS ISAIAS CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND, IT'S EASTWARD SHIFT IN PATH
AND RESULTANT QPE IS BRINGING THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FORECAST POINTS MORE INTO FOCUS. SOME MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
IS EXPECTED IN OKALOOSA INTO COVINGTON. FURTHER WEST, THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BRINGING DROPS OF 3'-5' IN WATER
LEVELS OF AFFECTED GAUGES IN SANTA ROSA CO, AND WEST. /16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 77 59 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 77 65 83 65 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 78 68 82 68 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 76 56 86 57 / 10 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 72 57 87 59 / 20 0 0 0
CAMDEN 72 56 84 58 / 10 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 78 58 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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