804
FXUS64 KMOB 060023
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
623 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS. DENSE MARINE FOG WILL BECOME AN INCREASING
CONCERN BY MIDWEEK.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEK.
- NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MONITORED OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70'S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50'S MOST NIGHTS.
AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND MOIST AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA PATCHY TO
AREAS OF DENSE FOG BECOME POSSIBLE ANY GIVEN NIGHT, PARTICULARLY
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME WEAK
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG POTENTIAL
PRECLUDES ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED AT THIS POINT FOR
TONIGHT, HOWEVER AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED IN
SPOTS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AN AMPLIFIED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING OUR NEXT SHOT AT MORE
SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST THE
FORECAST GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES AT THIS POINT HAVE THE TROUGH GLANCING JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING BETTER FORCING TO OUR NORTH. IF THIS
REMAINS THE CASE, IT SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IN OUR AREA. REGARDLESS, AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AND
THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA THERE IS STILL THE
EXPECTATION FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE SATURDAY. DRY AND COOL WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MM/25
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ISSUANCE TIME. THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO IFR OR LIFR AS FOG (POSSIBLY DENSE) DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND
15-16Z, ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS SURROUNDING MOBILE BAY COULD SEE FOG
LINGER A BIT LONGER. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO A MODERATE FLOW BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND. MARINE FOG
DEVELOPMENT MAY BECOME A CONCERN EACH NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 56 75 59 76 / 0 10 10 0
PENSACOLA 59 74 61 74 / 10 10 10 10
DESTIN 60 71 62 72 / 10 10 10 10
EVERGREEN 52 76 57 77 / 0 10 10 10
WAYNESBORO 52 76 57 77 / 0 10 10 0
CAMDEN 51 75 56 76 / 0 10 10 10
CRESTVIEW 52 76 57 77 / 10 10 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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