244
FXUS64 KMOB 101212
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
612 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 608 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
- A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT
NORTHWEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR, WITH A MARGINAL RISK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
- AREAS OF DENSE MARINE FOG WILL IMPACT AREA BAYS AND SOUNDS AND
NEAR SHORE WATERS AT TIMES TODAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE MARINE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
MESOANALYSIS UPDATE
ISSUED AT 608 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. AT
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ITS PARENT LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY, SOUTHWESTWARD INTO LOUISIANA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MERGED INTO A LINE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO,
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND PROVIDES FORCING OVER THE AREA.
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. MEANWHILE, LOW LEVEL SHEAR HAS INCREASED ALONG WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LLJ. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR HAS BEEN IN PLACE TO
SOME EXTENT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, WITH THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
BEING A LACK OF FORCING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WE NOW HAVE FORCING NOT
ONLY FROM THE LLJ, BUT ALSO THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS QUICKLY MOVING
EASTWARD. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND HIRES GUIDANCE, WE WON'T SEE
MUCH CHANGE TO THE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
SO, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AND ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR
STRENGTH FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THIS
OCCURRING IS FOR AREAS IN SOUTHEAST MS AND OUR INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL
COUNTIES (WHERE TOR 003 CURRENTLY COVERS).
FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH, THINGS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS THE SAME, WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH, WE MAY LACK
THE STRONG FORCING FOR STORMS TO BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE. GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW QUITE A BIT THIS
MORNING, AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE,
WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD
LEAVE A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION. THIS ERODES QUICKLY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BUT IT MAY PROVIDE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE
ACTIVITY. IF THIS DOESN'T PAN OUT AND WE ARE ABLE TO REALIZE ANY
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS, THOSE WOULD
POSE THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES (AND WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG
TOR IN THIS SCENARIO). STILL THINKING THAT THE WEAK HEIGHT RISES
WILL WORK IN OUR FAVOR THIS MORNING, BUT IT'S SOMETHING WE'LL
MONITOR. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON,
BRINGING AN END TO THE SEVERE THREAT. /73
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES,
EXCEPT ONLY FROM ABOUT 50-55 DEGREES ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S OVER INTERIOR AREAS, WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S ALONG
THE COAST. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
BY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO
PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, MAINLY ACROSS LOCATIONS EAST OF
I-65 AND NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY RANGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY BEHIND THIS REINFORCING COLD
AIRMASS. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE MAY OCCUR OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20 TO
AROUND 32 DEGREES (LOWS CLOSER TO THE MID 30S ALONG THE BEACHES).
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAY TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS THE REGION.
BEACH FORECAST: A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING LOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT, CURRENTLY IN MISSISSIPPI, WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. THESE STORMS MAY IMPACT
THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE HOW FAR SOUTH THE RAIN WILL REACH, HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR ALL SITES. AMENDMENTS MAY BECOME
NECESSARY AS CONFIDENCE INCREASE. /73
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
AREAS OF DENSE MARINE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER A FEW AREA BAYS AND
SOUNDS AND ADJACENT NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS EVENING. THESE AREAS
OF FOG MAY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE MARINE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE AFFECTED MARINE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA
STARTING AT 9 PM SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT.
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ADVISORY IS SET TO EXPIRE FOR ALL BAYS
AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AT NOON SUNDAY, AND FOR THE GULF WATERS
AT 9 AM MONDAY AS THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 75 44 58 34 / 90 10 0 0
PENSACOLA 74 48 58 36 / 80 30 0 0
DESTIN 73 50 60 37 / 60 40 0 0
EVERGREEN 76 43 57 30 / 90 20 0 0
WAYNESBORO 73 39 55 31 / 90 10 0 0
CAMDEN 73 40 52 28 / 100 10 0 0
CRESTVIEW 78 47 59 30 / 80 40 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ630>636-
650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.
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