389
FXUS64 KMOB 121132
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
632 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEK. WITH MANY AREAS STILL WITHOUT POWER AND RECOVERY EFFORTS
FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS ONGOING, THESE TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO
AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WE EXPECT RECORD TO NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 88-93 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS UNDER SUNNY SKIES, WITH MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST. /22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. IT IS EXPECTED TO
ANCHOR ITSELF DIRECTLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE
LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. SUBSIDENCE FROM
THIS HIGH, AS WELL AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE (PWATS BETWEEN
0.7 AND 1.0 INCH) WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNNY SKIES, VERY WARM HIGHS,
AND COOL LOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AS STATED IN YESTERDAY'S
DISCUSSION, THESE HIGHS MAY GET CLOSE TO, IF NOT BEAT, OUR
RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT, LOOKING SPECIFICALLY AT
TODAY (OCTOBER 12TH), THE RECORD HIGH FOR KMOB IS 89. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS A HIGH OF 91, WITH MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT WE
COULD EVEN GET SLIGHTLY HIGHER. NBM ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ALSO
GIVE A ROUGHLY 40-60% CHANCE OF BREAKING THE RECORD. THE GOOD NEWS
IS, THAT HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES DUE TO AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND
60S. THAT BEING SAID, NUMEROUS LOCATIONS WHICH WERE IMPACTED BY
HURRICANE ISAIAS ARE STILL WITHOUT POWER. THESE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER TO PROVIDE
RELIEF FROM THE SUN, COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES. EVERYONE PART OF THE RECOVERY PROCESS IS URGED
TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER,
ESPECIALLY IF ENGAGING IN STRENUOUS ACTIVITY. LOWS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND
TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE COAST, INCREASING BY A FEW DEGREES BY
MIDWEEK. ADDITIONALLY, SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS, CALM
WINDS, AND CLEAR SKIES MAY HELP TO PROMOTE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
EACH MORNING THIS WEEK. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
LONGER RANGED MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST. BEHIND
IT, A MUCH COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS MAY DROP INTO THE 70S, ALONG WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK. /96
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
PATCHY FOG IN LOW-LYING AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHILE
REMAINING LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTERIOR AREAS. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. UNTIL THEN, A DIURNAL FLOW CYCLE WILL OCCUR THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS THEN BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 91 62 90 62 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 89 66 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 87 69 87 69 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 91 58 92 58 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 92 58 93 58 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 90 57 91 58 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 90 58 91 59 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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