489
FXUS64 KMOB 052028
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
328 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 100-107 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK. VALUES OF 108-110 ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST AND CENTERS
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WHERE IT SITS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
DEEPENS AND DIGS INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST. THERE IS STILL
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
CLOSE TO FULLY SATURATED THANKS TO THE TROPICAL WAVE LEAVING A LARGE
SLUG OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE. PWATS REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN
THE 2.2-2.4 INCH RANGE. IN FACT THE LATEST 12Z LIX SOUNDING SHOWS
2.33 INCHES WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT STILL WELL
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE BASED ON SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. ENSEMBLES
SHOW THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OF 2+ INCH PWATS PERSISTING THROUGH
LEAST MONDAY. THESE HIGH PWATS AND WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH
A FREEZING LEVEL OF 14,000+ FEET WILL SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES WITHIN ANY CONVECTION.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED EACH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITH THE
ENHANCED MOISTURE. SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WHICH
WILL CARRY A WATERSPOUT RISK. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH. WE HAVE
EMBEDDED WAVES AND THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH COMING DOWN THE EAST COAST
WITH THE RIDGE RETROGRADING WEST. THERE IS GOOD INSTABILITY,
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SHEAR OF 15 TO MAYBE 20 KNOTS WITH THE TROUGH
CLOSER TO THE AREA, AND OF COURSE PLENTY OF MOISTURE ESPECIALLY WITH
SOME POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A BACK-DOOR FRONT THEN ADVANCES
THROUGH GEORGIA SUNDAY AND LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EAST. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE STORMS MOVE OVER THE
SAME AREAS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
NORTHERLY, THIS INTRODUCES SOME DRIER AIR TO THE MID-LEVELS AND
AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT MORE AND INCREASE
DCAPE WHICH INTRODUCES A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORMS.
BEGINNING TUESDAY, AN UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
THEN ADVANCES EAST AND WE END UP ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW. THE FRONT FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY LINGERING OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE PRETTY WEAK BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERLY FLOW, ALBEIT PRETTY WEAK, COULD KEEP
THE SEA BREEZE SLIGHTLY MORE PINNED TO THE COAST WHICH WOULD KEEP
THE MOST OF THE CONVECTION THERE. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND THEN ANY RESULTANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUES TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS HOLD
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.
HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD
OF 108 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT HEAT
HEADLINES ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-107 ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA EACH DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES BRING SOME OVERNIGHT RELIEF
WITH VALUES IN THE LOW 70S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH MID 70S
JUST ALONG THE COAST.
..BEACH FORECAST
THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW FOR ALL AREA BEACHES IN
FLORIDA AND ALABAMA. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, SURF HEIGHTS REMAIN
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SS/97
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER, WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE PERIODIC LOWER VIS/CIGS
FROM HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO TEMPORARY FLIGHT REDUCTIONS, BUT EXPECT
VFR TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
A GENERALLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH MONDAY. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. A FEW WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
SS/97
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 73 92 74 94 / 20 40 20 60
PENSACOLA 76 91 77 92 / 0 30 20 60
DESTIN 78 89 78 90 / 10 20 30 70
EVERGREEN 72 95 72 95 / 20 50 40 50
WAYNESBORO 72 96 73 98 / 10 40 30 20
CAMDEN 73 96 73 96 / 20 50 40 20
CRESTVIEW 72 94 73 94 / 20 40 20 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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