493
FXUS64 KMOB 201826
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1226 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
- FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY
NEARER THE COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY MARINE FOG THAT
DEVELOPS.
- A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF I-65 ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AMPLIFYING IN THE PROCESS. MILD TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA UNTIL AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW BRINGS A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH MUCH COOLER AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TONIGHT (A BIT HIGHER WELL INLAND),
THEN MAINLY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY. MLCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
INCREASE GENERALLY TO 500-1000 J/KG, POTENTIALLY A BIT HIGHER,
BUT SHEAR VALUES REMAIN LOW AND EXPECT JUST EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY
WHEN MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOR THE MOST PART, SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE AN UPTICK THAT OCCURS IN THE
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT
SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IN THIS PORTION
(ROUGHLY EAST OF I-65) FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SPC HAS INCLUDED A MARGINAL RISK FOR THIS PORTION.
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 60S. AS MUCH
COOLER AIR FLOWS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S, THEN LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT FOR AROUND 30 AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60,
THEN HIGHS ON MONDAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
TEMPERATURES STAGE A RECOVERY FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BY WHICH
TIME HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH A BIT WARMER
VALUES FOLLOWING FOR THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TREND WARMER AS
WELL, WITH LOWS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. ANOTHER UPPER TROF
ADVANCES ACROSS THE CONUS LATE IN THE PERIOD AND BRINGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, CHANCE POPS RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON
FRIDAY. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
SUNDAY, AFTER WHICH A LOW RISK FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. /29
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT
ISSUANCE TIME, WITH MVFR CEILINGS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING. THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON THESE
SHOWERS, ALONG WITH THE MVFR CEILINGS, SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH
INLAND. EXPECT BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN SOME OF THE
HEAVIER ACTIVITY. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY THIS
EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR OR POSSIBLY LIFR. CEILINGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RISE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH POTENTIAL NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
POSSIBLE GALE CONDITIONS. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
THE MARINE AREA FROM 06-18Z SUNDAY, AFTER WHICH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 18Z MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
LATER IN TIME MAINLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
DIMINISHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 66 79 44 59 / 20 60 70 0
PENSACOLA 67 77 47 58 / 30 50 80 0
DESTIN 64 73 49 60 / 50 50 90 0
EVERGREEN 64 79 42 57 / 40 80 70 0
WAYNESBORO 62 76 39 55 / 50 70 50 0
CAMDEN 61 74 40 53 / 60 70 60 0
CRESTVIEW 65 80 45 60 / 40 60 80 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR GMZ633>636.
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