310
FXUS64 KMOB 280506
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1206 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL US. AS WE HAVE SEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW, EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN, PASSING
OVER/NEAR OUR LOCAL AREA. WITH FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVES MOVING
OVERHEAD, ALONG WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE
GULF (PWATS GENERALLY RANGING AROUND 1.8-2.1 INCHES) AND STRONG
INSTABILITY DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS OVER COASTAL
COUNTIES, AND WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THEY PUSH INLAND. WITH
LIMITED SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS
VERY LOW. THAT BEING SAID, AS WE TYPICALLY SEE WITH PULSE-TYPE
STORMS, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THESE
STORMS, AS WELL AS THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE, WILL LEAD TO STORMS
BEING EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS (RATES POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS
2-3 IN/HR). IF STORMS MANAGE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS,
ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST WEEK, THEN WE COULD SEE LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, HELPING TO SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE FARTHER INTO
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ALOFT TO TRANSITION TO A
MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE, KEEPING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE THING WE ALWAYS HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERNS THIS TIME OF YEAR IS IF STORMS THAT DEVELOP UPSTREAM
ARE ABLE TO ORGANIZE INTO MCSS AND PUSH DOWN TOWARDS OUR LOCAL AREA.
STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY SPECIFICS, BUT JUST SOMETHING TO
WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS. RAIN CHANCES MAY FINALLY START TO
DECREASE BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE MILD AND HUMID, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND AND THE LOW TO MID 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, WITH SATURATED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS, CANNOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG
DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY, PARTICULARLY
OVER INLAND COUNTIES. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO A MODERATE RISK FOR THE
WEEKEND. /96
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACCOMPANY CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH
IFR VISIBILITY PROBABILITIES HIGHER FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND LOCALIZED IFR
WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. AFTER THESE STORMS VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL. /SS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
SHIFTING TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 3 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY AND AROUND 2 FEET FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 85 70 84 71 / 60 20 70 20
PENSACOLA 84 73 84 74 / 60 10 50 40
DESTIN 84 73 84 74 / 50 20 40 50
EVERGREEN 86 69 85 69 / 50 20 80 40
WAYNESBORO 84 69 83 69 / 60 30 70 30
CAMDEN 84 68 82 68 / 50 30 70 50
CRESTVIEW 87 69 87 70 / 60 20 70 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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