939
FXUS64 KMOB 040638
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1238 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY, BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY JUST BELOW THE RECORDS THIS WEEK.
- RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
RIDGING ALOFT GENERALLY REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
IN THIS PATTERN AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MOISTURE LEVELS
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PWATS OF 1.5+ INCHES STREAMING INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THIS
PATTERN (RELATIVELY HIT-OR-MISS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST SPOTS
STAYING DRY) WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-
65 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE
FOG IN THE OVERNIGHT AND PRE-DAWN HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
AS WE ROLL DEEPER INTO THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES DIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PINCHES OFF FROM THE TROUGH. THIS CUT-OFF LOW RETROGRADES TOWARD
SOCAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY DAMPENS OUT AS IT DRIFTS
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUR ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TURNS MORE
ZONAL AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A LINE OF STORMS ORGANIZES
WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG A FRONT, BUT THE STORMS
(AND FRONT) BEGIN TO WASH OUT AS THEY SLIDE CLOSER TO OUR LOCAL
AREA. AT THIS POINT, IT'S TOUGH TO TELL JUST HOW FAR THE ACTIVITY
WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA, BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
STORMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
BEACH FORECAST - MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGH-END MODERATE RISK ON FRIDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS ANY FURTHER
INCREASE IN WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BUMP IN THE RIP CURRENT RISK
LATE IN THE WEEK. 07/MB
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ARE SETTLING INTO THE COASTAL ALABAMA
TERMINALS AT 05Z. LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND PRE-DAWN HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN THE LOW-END
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 07/MB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 80 61 80 65 / 0 0 20 10
PENSACOLA 74 62 75 65 / 0 0 20 0
DESTIN 73 61 73 62 / 0 0 10 0
EVERGREEN 84 57 83 60 / 0 0 20 0
WAYNESBORO 82 60 82 64 / 0 0 10 0
CAMDEN 82 57 82 61 / 0 0 20 0
CRESTVIEW 81 57 81 60 / 0 0 20 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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