410
FXUS64 KMOB 262347
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
547 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
STRONG RIP CURRENTS CREATING DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE RETURNED FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH A MEAN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PASSES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE, EVENTUALLY STALLING SOUTH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. WITH DECENT MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND NEARBY (PRECIPITABLE H20
VALUES AROUND 1.5") ALONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT, RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ADDING IN SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
FROM A PASSING SPLIT UPPER LEVEL JET, AND SOME INSTABILITY (GUIDANCE
IS ADVERTISING MUCAPES IN THE 600-800J/KG RANGE), LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS MAY CAUSE PONDING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST
AREA EXPERIENCING VERY DRY TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS, THIS RAIN WILL
HELP TO MOISTEN AREA SOILS, BUT LIMIT WATER ISSUES. THE EXPECTED
QUICK PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO HELP TO LIMIT MORE SERIOUS
WATER ISSUES.
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THEN SHIFTS EAST AS A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, SHIFTING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN
RESPONSE. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH MID WEEK, DEFLECTING THE
UPPER LOW AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME FOR TEMPERATURES. LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 BY SUNDAY, REMAINING THERE FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES SEE A MORE VARIABILITY
INITIALLY, DROPPING FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 TONIGHT TO THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM THERE, A WARMING TREND
ENSUES, WITH MID 50S TO AROUND 60 EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING ONSHORE SWELL AND A LARGE TIDAL
RAIN IS BRING A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TO AREA BEACHES. AM
EXPECTING THIS TO DECREASE BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES LESS
ORGANIZED AND THE TIDAL RANGE DECREASES.
/16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE TIME BEING,
GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE MORNING FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, BECOMING
NUMEROUS AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED
UNDERNEATH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BECOMING NORTHERLY BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART,
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CURRENTLY WILL SHIFT TO A LIGHT TO
MODERATE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
AREA WATERS. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN EARLY IN THE WEEK,
WITH SOME STRENGTHENING MID WEEK.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 61 73 54 76 / 70 70 10 0
PENSACOLA 62 71 56 73 / 60 70 20 0
DESTIN 61 69 56 71 / 60 70 30 10
EVERGREEN 57 73 51 76 / 90 70 10 0
WAYNESBORO 57 73 49 75 / 90 30 0 0
CAMDEN 56 71 51 73 / 90 40 10 0
CRESTVIEW 59 73 52 76 / 70 80 20 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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