366
FXUS64 KMOB 051112
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
612 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
AVIATION /05.12Z ISSUANCE/
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND ALONG THE COAST. FOG DISSIPATES BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD/DEVELOP INLAND DURING THE COURSE
OF THE DAY. GENERAL VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING THEN MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. /12
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 439 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022/
NEAR TERM UPDATE /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE,
CURRENTLY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION, WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD
TODAY, BEFORE ANCHORING ITSELF OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL
SLOWLY PUSH OVERHEAD AS THEY PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE, BUT BECOMING LESS FREQUENT BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH PWATS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM 2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES. PWATS
DECREASE A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY (AROUND 1.8 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN
HALF) AS SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE REGION, THANKS
TO THE REPOSITIONING OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN PRESENT BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH MLCAPES RANGING FROM
1500 TO 2500 J/KG FOR BOTH AFTERNOONS.
WITH SIMILAR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY VALUES IN PLACE, AS WELL AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD, TODAY LOOKS TO BE A CARBON
COPY OF YESTERDAY, AND IN FACT THE PREVIOUS 5 OR 6 DAYS FOR THAT
MATTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF OUR MARINE ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
AS STORMS PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. THIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AL AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS WHERE THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE HIGHEST TODAY AND WHERE THE PREVIOUS 24 HOUR RAINFALL
TOTALS HAVE BEEN IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES IN SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
BY THIS EVENING, ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS INSTABILITY DECREASES DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WET AND
UNSETTLED PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A NORMAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP
OFFSHORE AND ALONG OUR COASTAL ZONES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
HOWEVER, COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP, MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES INLAND.
HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES,
WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO RESIDE. WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR PUSHING IN ABOVE 850MB, A FEW STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS
DCAPES LOOK TO INCREASE TO AROUND 800 TO 1000 J/KG.
HIGHS FOR BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG
THE COAST AND LOWER 90S INLAND. AT THIS TIME, HEAT INDICES FOR BOTH
DAYS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (GENERALLY AROUND
98 TO 103 DEGREES, WITH LOCALIZED VALUES UP TO 105 DEGREES). LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LASTLY, A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /12/96
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST, TOWARDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH OVER THE US ROCKIES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, LEAVING A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
REASON IS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
ALONG WITH A MEAN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A
SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EVEN
WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OVER THE THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST, SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS MOVES IN DRIER AIR, WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 2", INTO THE 1.7"-1.9" RANGE FOR MOST OF THE SHORT
TERM. WITH MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASING AND THE UPPER PATTERN
DIRECTING ANY PASSING SHORTWAVES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA, RAIN
CHANCES DECREASE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DECREASING DAYTIME CONVECTION AND STILL PRESENT UPPER SUBSIDENCE
WILL LET HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AROUND 90 TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY,
AROUND 90 TO THE UPPER 90S FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR HEAT INDICES TO RISE INTO THE 100-015
DEGREE RANGE FOR THURSDAY, 102-107 FOR FRIDAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
LEVELS LIKELY EACH DAY. LOW TO MID 70S WELL INLAND, UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHTS.
MLCAPES RISE INTO THE 2000-2500J/KG THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COMBINED
WITH DCAPES RISING INTO THE 700-900J/KG RANGE, STRONGER TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. DRIER AIR IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. WITH WEAK WIND
SHEAR, ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH
CONVECTION OF THE PULSE SEVERE TYPE. DECREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF WATER ISSUES. AM STILL EXPECTING WATER
ISSUES TO BE POSSIBLE IN POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES.
/16
EXTENDED TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE PROCESS ALONG WITH SHIFTING THE
TROUGH WEST. THIS SHIFTS UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO NORTHERLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST, AND DIRECTING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SOUTH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING
WEEK. MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE LEVELS RISING BACK ABOVE 2" AND MORE
PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SEE A DOWNWARD TREND WITH THE
INCREASING CONVECTION, ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEAT INDICES. SATURDAY'S
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, WITH
HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT IN THE 102-107 DEGREE RANGE. FROM THERE,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS EARLY IN
THE COMING WEEK.
/16
MARINE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEAR
SHORE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING, BECOMING A LITTLE LESS
NUMEROUS LATER TODAY AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS INLAND. COVERAGES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL LOWER SOMEWHAT INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING, BUT A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED. /12
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MOB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page