106  
FXUS64 KMOB 031142  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
542 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2024  
 
PREDOMINATELY LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY LATE  
MORNING/MIDDAY, THEN LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO  
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 5 TO 10  
KNOTS DEVELOPS TODAY THEN DIMINISHES TO A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST  
FLOW TONIGHT. /29  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 536 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2024/  
   
.NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM...  
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2024  
 
A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES SLOWLY  
PROGRESSES INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE PERIOD WHILE A SERIES OF  
MODEST SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK  
AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE COAST IS  
ANTICIPATED TO DISSIPATE TODAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW  
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. THE FLOW DIMINISHES TONIGHT, THEN A SOMEWHAT  
STRONGER (AROUND 10 KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.  
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY AND HAVE  
CONTINUED WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL  
MID MORNING BY WHICH TIME THE FOG SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED. DENSE FOG  
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. INDICATED  
MLCAPE VALUES TODAY LOOK TO TYPICALLY RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG, BUT  
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO RATHER DRY ESPECIALLY ABOVE AROUND 750 MB  
WHICH SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP WILL SUCCUMB TO  
THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR AND DISSIPATE. SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION MAY  
MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY OVER INTERIOR AREAS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, BUT  
THE POTENTIAL COVERAGE LOOKS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION POPS AT THIS  
TIME. FOR MONDAY, MLCAPE VALUES WILL AGAIN BE NEAR 500-1000 J/KG BUT  
SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT BETTER MOISTURE CONTENT IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH MAY  
BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO SURVIVE RATHER DRY AIR THAT  
CONTINUES TO PERSIST ABOVE 750 MB OR SO. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH  
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE LOW  
THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE DRY AIR ALOFT INDICATES  
THE POTENTIAL FOR PULSE TYPE CONVECTION PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY  
WINDS, MAINLY ON MONDAY WITH THE BETTER CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.  
HIGHS TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS  
TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S CLOSER  
TO THE COAST. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. /29  
 
SHORT TERM...  
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2024  
 
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH, LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN  
TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, IS EXPECTED TO  
QUICKLY LIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, LIKELY  
PASSING OVERHEAD TUESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL US DURING  
THE PERIOD, WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF IT  
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE  
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARDS ON TUESDAY, WITH SOME  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT A WEAK LOW MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ALONG  
IT OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI. IF THIS LOW  
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP, IT WOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE  
TROUGH, MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA AND LIFTING OUT BY THE EVENING  
HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH BY  
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON TRACK WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGES  
TO OVERALL THINKING. RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST  
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS DIFFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES  
OVERHEAD AND THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH (AND POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW)  
DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE AREA. STORMS WILL LIKELY ALREADY BE  
ONGOING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THEY MAY START  
TO EXHIBIT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION/CLUSTERING DUE TO DEEP LAYER  
SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 35-45 KNOTS ACROSS THAT AREA. HOWEVER, AS  
THIS ACTIVITY STARTS TO ENTER OUR AREA, SHEAR VALUES WILL START TO  
LOWER AS MID-LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONALLY, DUE TO A  
NEARLY SATURATED PROFILE GIVING WAY TO WEAK LAPSE RATES, INSTABILITY  
REMAINS RATHER MEAGER ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE, THE OVERALL SEVERE  
RISK CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT BE A  
BRIEF WINDOW DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS WHERE A FEW STRONGER  
STORMS (POTENTIALLY ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS) CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
GUSTY WINDS MIGHT BE POSSIBLE OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES (GENERALLY  
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84 AND WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER) AS THE STORMS  
FIRST ENTER OUR AREA. PORTIONS OF THIS GENERAL AREA ARE CURRENTLY  
OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SO WE WILL CONTINUE  
TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY. ADDITIONALLY, DUE TO THE HIGHLY SATURATED  
ENVIRONMENT, ANY INSTANCES WHERE CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER  
THE SAME AREAS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. RAIN  
CHANCES DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH  
LIFTS AWAY AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS THROUGH.  
 
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 70S ON TUESDAY, AND LOWS WILL ONLY  
DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL  
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO A HIGH RISK BY TUESDAY NIGHT. /96  
 
LONG TERM...  
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2024  
 
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY  
MORNING AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE  
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE THAT LIFTED AWAY FROM OUR AREA DURING THE  
SHORT TERM. UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY  
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TREKS EASTWARD  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. AT THE SURFACE, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH  
PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM BRIEFLY STALLS  
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY BEFORE SURGING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT  
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE  
ADVANCING WARM FRONT AND THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL  
ALLOW FOR RICH, DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS UP TO 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES) TO  
ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, A SURFACE LOW  
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WHICH  
WILL RESULT IN A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FRIDAY  
AND PUSHING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE FAR OUT IN  
TIME, MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP  
MOISTURE AND FORCING INDUCED BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE  
APPROACHING FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASE  
IN RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW, THE  
BEST FORCING LOOKS TO RESIDE JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA,  
HOWEVER, BEING THAT WE ARE STILL SIX DAYS OUT, THAT COULD EASILY  
CHANGE OVER THE COMING DAYS, SO WE WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO MONITOR  
TRENDS CLOSELY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE  
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT VERY STRONG SHEAR (0-6KM SHEAR GREATER  
THAN 65KTS) WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US, ALONG WITH  
INCREASING INSTABILITY, AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG 50+ KT  
LLJ. LOCATIONS WHERE THESE FACTORS OVERLAP COULD VERY WELL SEE A  
SEVERE THREAT MATERIALIZE. AS WE GET CLOSER AND SEE MORE RUN TO  
RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY, THEN WE WILL BE ABLE TO IRON OUT THE  
DETAILS. HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING MAY ALSO BECOME A CONCERN WITH  
THIS EVENT TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE RAINFALL WE WILL RECEIVE  
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD EVENT, AND THE ABUNDANT AVAILABLE  
MOISTURE WITH THIS EVENT. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE  
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN  
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH TEMPERATURES  
DROPPING SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /96  
 
MARINE...  
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2024  
 
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY AFFECT BAYS, SOUNDS AND NEARSHORE  
WATERS THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.  
SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON TUESDAY WELL OFFSHORE.  
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR STORMS. /29  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 75 62 75 62 71 58 78 57 / 10 10 30 60 90 20 10 10  
PENSACOLA 72 63 71 63 70 61 77 60 / 10 10 20 40 90 30 10 0  
DESTIN 72 62 72 63 70 63 75 61 / 10 0 20 30 80 50 10 0  
EVERGREEN 80 58 78 60 72 57 79 54 / 10 10 30 40 90 50 10 10  
WAYNESBORO 77 59 77 60 72 57 79 55 / 10 10 30 60 80 20 10 10  
CAMDEN 77 58 76 60 71 57 77 54 / 10 10 30 40 80 40 10 10  
CRESTVIEW 78 59 78 60 73 58 79 55 / 10 10 20 40 90 50 10 10  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ051>060-  
261>266.  
 
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ201>206.  
 
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ067-075-  
076-078-079.  
 
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ630>636-650-655.  
 

 
 

 
 
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