413
FXUS64 KMOB 130715
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
115 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 111 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. FOG COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL ALABAMA.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, AND COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL
LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER OUR LOCAL GULF WATERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL HELP TO PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A RATHER
MILD AND HUMID DAY TODAY, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS
PRIMED FOR FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE (DEW POINTS INCREASED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S, LIGHT WINDS, AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
NEARBY HIGH), A DECK OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY STREAMING
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION, HELPING TO PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING AS
OF 1AM. LOOKING AT SATELLITE AND OBS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI, IT SEEMS LIKE THE CLOUD DECK IS SLOWLY STARTING TO
ERODE, AND UNDERNEATH THESE CLOUD BREAKS ARE WHERE OBS ARE
BEGINNING TO REPORT DENSE FOG. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS OF ISSUANCE
TIME, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL COUNTIES, AS
WELL AS STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES. IF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE AND
FOG BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES, THEN WE WILL LIKELY
NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE FOR MOST AREAS, HREF PROBABILITIES DO
CONTINUE TO KEEP A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP AND STICK
AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY,
THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING PRIOR
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, PRIMARILY OVER COASTAL COUNTIES.
OUTSIDE OF FOG POTENTIAL, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT DUE TO
MOISTURE POOLING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WEAK FORCING. RAIN
WILL LIKELY START OFF AS LIGHT, WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON, TRANSITIONING TO A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE
TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. WE DRY OUT BY MID-SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT LIKELY MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 84 TO THE MID 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
FACTORING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WIND
CHILLS) COULD DROP TO AS LOW AS 9-15 DEGREES NORTH OF I-10, WITH
UPPER TEENS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THIS LOW, WE WILL LIKELY REACH OUR COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA,
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL AREAS NOW ARE FLIRTING WITH
EXTREME COLD WARNING CRITERIA. REGARDLESS OF WHICH PRODUCT
ULTIMATELY GETS ISSUED, RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MAKE
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT PEOPLE, PLANTS, PETS, AND PIPES FROM THIS
UPCOMING COLD WEATHER.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN UNDER
SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY ONLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
20S AREAWIDE. BY TUESDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST,
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY MODERATE. IN FACT, HIGHS BY
THURSDAY MAY WARM BACK INTO THE LOW 70S FOR SOME SPOTS. LOW RAIN
CHANCES MAY ALSO RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATE WEEK. A LOW RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /96
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT ISSUANCE TIME. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A SIGNAL FOR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, POSSIBLY BRINGING REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
TO IFR OR LOWER. THIS POTENTIAL, HOWEVER, IS DEPENDENT ON WHETHER
OR NOT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ERODE. ANY FOG/LOW CEILINGS THAT DO
MANAGE TO DEVELOP SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE/LIFT A LITTLE AFTER
SUNRISE FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION BEING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
COASTAL ALABAMA, WHERE SEA FOG MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 111 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEA FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND
LINGERING THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES ON SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE GULF WATERS. WINDS SUBSIDE ON MONDAY, BECOMING A LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND FOR TUESDAY. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 72 48 60 23 / 20 50 30 0
PENSACOLA 72 53 63 28 / 10 40 30 0
DESTIN 71 55 64 31 / 10 30 30 0
EVERGREEN 72 43 56 21 / 20 60 20 0
WAYNESBORO 69 40 51 19 / 30 70 10 0
CAMDEN 68 40 51 19 / 20 70 10 0
CRESTVIEW 73 49 60 22 / 10 40 30 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ261>266.
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ078-079.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page