212
FXUS64 KMOB 291753
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1253 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID AFTERNOON TODAY.
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT,
CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS EAST AND
DEAMPLIFIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND MOVE EAST OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA SHIFTS EAST, LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A DECENT GRADIENT, AND INITIALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. A COOL AND DRYER AIRMASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO MODERATE AND MOISTEN IN THE COMING WEEK
WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME IS HELPING TO LIMIT INSOLATION TODAY OF
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS.
RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
LEVELS IN THE COMING WEEK, MAINLY TUESDAY ON. THE ADVANCING UPPER
RIDGE AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE (PRECIPITABLE H20
LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 1.6" BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA),
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND AS THE CONTINUED TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY (INCLUDING A WEAKENING, THOUGH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THE END OF THE WEEK) MOVING OVER THE CONUS.
BY THE COMING WEEKEND, AN UPPER TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER OR NEAR
THE PLAINS (GUIDANCE VARIES). INCONSISTENCY IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE TROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH PLACEMENT IS LEADING TO INCONSISTENCY IN POPS FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND. CURRENT PACKAGE HAS A BLEND OF ENSEMBLES USED FOR
POPS. EVEN WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH, HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN ON
THE POSITIVE SIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.
THE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL AROUND 70 TO MID 70S TODAY RISE
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY TUESDAY (MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH OF I-
10) AND REMAIN THERE FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TONIGHT RISE INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY NIGHT, AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST.
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST TO
EASTERLY EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK, KEEPING THE SWELL COMPONENT HIGH
IN THE RIP RISK EQUATION. TIDAL RANGE DECREASES THROUGH THE WEEK,
THOUGH, COUNTER BALANCING THE INCREASED SWELL. THE RIP RISK IS
EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MODERATE TO AT TIMES HIGH THROUGH THE
WEEK AS A RESULT.
/16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
CIGS LIFTING ABOVE 3K FEET BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BEFORE LOW CLOUDS MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS
BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. /73
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK, KEEPING CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED AT TIMES OVER AREA WATERS, ESPECIALLY LARGER BAYS AND OPEN
GULF WATERS.
/16
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
THE HIGH SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL HAS EASED, WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS EASING. DRY FUELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM UNTIL
THE COMING RAINS EASE THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 60 79 64 81 / 0 20 10 30
PENSACOLA 63 74 65 77 / 0 10 0 20
DESTIN 62 74 64 75 / 10 10 0 20
EVERGREEN 55 82 59 84 / 0 10 0 20
WAYNESBORO 56 81 62 83 / 0 20 0 30
CAMDEN 55 80 59 83 / 0 10 0 20
CRESTVIEW 56 81 59 83 / 0 10 0 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ631-
632-650-655-670-675.
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