676
FXUS64 KMOB 021149
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
549 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. FOG COULD BECOME DENSE
IN SPOTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN US/WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY
ANCHOR ITSELF IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
GA/AL/MS, A PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AT THIS POINT, WITH HOW
STRONG THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS, I AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY COLD
FRONTS TO MAKE IT INTO OUR LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THAT BEING THE CASE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. BY MID TO LATE
WEEK, HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S (SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE).
IN ADDITION TO TEMPERATURES, RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE BY FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW, BOTH
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE, WILL HELP TO ADVECT BETTER MOISTURE
VALUES INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF (PWATS INCREASING FROM 0.8-1.0
INCHES TO AROUND 1.2-1.4 INCHES). THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS
WITH REGARDS TO OVERALL FORCING OVER OUR AREA AS THE BEST ASCENT
LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY,
WHILE WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES AND THE RIDGE MANAGES TO KEEP THE BEST FORCING TO
OUR WEST, I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SUBSIDENCE WIN OUT AND
OUR OVERALL RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. ON THE OTHER HAND, IF THE RIDGE IS A BIT
WEAKER AND SHORTWAVES ARE ABLE TO GET CLOSER TO OUR LOCAL AREA,
THEN THIS COULD LEAD TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS AND WILL ADJUST POPS
ACCORDINGLY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, AS WELL AS RIDGING ALOFT, AND CALM
SURFACE WINDS AT NIGHT, FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME BETTER COVERAGE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT, THE BEST CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT, AS WELL
AS POSSIBLE SEA FOG FORMATION, LOOK TO START WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN
DEW POINTS SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE ARE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING A
MODERATE RISK FOR TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
/96
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF FOG FORMING, POSSIBLY DENSE, AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WEST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS AFTER MID-MORNING, BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER AT NIGHT AND
STRONGER DURING THE DAY. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 77 58 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 72 58 72 58 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 70 58 72 60 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 80 53 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 79 55 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 78 54 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 79 53 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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