339
FXUS64 KMOB 061211
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
711 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
- THE RISK FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS INCREASES MIDWEEK, WITH A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME. /13
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
4 CORNERS REGION TAKES ON A MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION WHILE
PROGRESSING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THURSDAY.
INTERESTINGLY, THIS SYSTEM IS NOW INDICATED TO NOT ABSORB A CUT-
OFF UPPER LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE BAJA REGION WHICH IN TURN
ALLOWS FOR THE UPPER TROF TO BE A BIT QUICKER WITH ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN, A SURFACE LOW PASSES OFF
TO THE NORTH AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE APPROACHING
FRONT, CONVECTION ADVANCES INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. ONE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS ISSUANCE IS
JUST HOW QUICKLY THE CONVECTION INCREASES ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHICH COULD THEN
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MORE QUICKLY
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION, THE CAMS ARE INDICATING RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-5 INCHES
(WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLY TO 8 INCHES) MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHICH PORTENDS A RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING. THIS ALL DEPENDS ON HOW THIS EVENT WILL PLAY OUT,
SO WILL NEED TO SEE IF CONTINUITY DEVELOPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAINFALL. SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF I-65, AND ALSO ALONG/SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BACK TO NEAR THE
COAST ON FRIDAY, BUT THERE'S UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER OR NOT THE
FRONT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH OR RATHER LINGERS NEAR THE COAST AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MEANWHILE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND HAVE OPTED FOR CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS BOTH DAYS. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MEANWHILE DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT WELL OFF TO THE
NORTH, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOR SUNDAY THEN CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN A
MODERATE RISK FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A LOW
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY. /29
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND
PATCHY FOG MOVING IN FOR TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE
FRONT, BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS TO ONSHORE TEMPORARILY OVER THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A PASSING SYSTEM BRINGS BACK LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 83 72 82 65 / 40 40 80 30
PENSACOLA 82 73 82 68 / 20 20 70 20
DESTIN 80 72 81 68 / 10 20 60 10
EVERGREEN 86 69 81 60 / 30 70 90 20
WAYNESBORO 83 68 79 59 / 70 90 60 30
CAMDEN 84 68 78 58 / 60 90 70 20
CRESTVIEW 87 70 84 63 / 20 20 80 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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