530  
FXUS64 KMOB 131129 AAA  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
629 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2020  
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z ISSUANCE...ISOLATED TO POTENTIALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WHICH LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR  
THE COAST BEFORE ENDING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE  
STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY, EXCEPT  
BECOMING SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST. /29  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 427 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2020/  
 
NEAR TERM UPDATE /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...AN UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN  
STATES FINALLY MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY.  
IN RESPONSE, AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE MEXICO/U.S. BORDER  
INTO THE WESTERN GULF EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN  
STATES, ALTHOUGH IT WAS NOTED THAT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUE  
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE THIS EASTWARD  
EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A COMBINATION OF A WEAK SURFACE  
TROF/FRONT AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS  
NIGHT'S CONVECTION RESULTS IN A PREDOMINATELY LIGHT NORTHERLY  
SURFACE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY EXCEPT FOR BECOMING  
SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR THE COAST AS A WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS WITH  
DAYTIME HEATING. A LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS TONIGHT  
THEN AGAIN BECOMES SOUTHERLY NEAR THE COAST ON TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME  
HEATING. ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT ABOVE 750 MB TODAY WHICH  
RESULTS IN WET BULB ZERO VALUES NEAR 10-11 KFT. SIMILAR VALUES WILL  
BE PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHILE  
FURTHER TO THE WEST WILL SEE IMPROVING MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  
CONSIDERING THIS, AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO  
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY, ALTHOUGH THIS IS  
OFFSET BY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKING TO BE MOSTLY ISOLATED. AS A  
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE  
PERIOD HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS EACH DAY,  
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION  
OF THE AREA WHERE THE WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE  
MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S AND HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY CURRENTLY  
IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME  
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  
LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S  
AT THE COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 90S, AND  
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHERN  
PORTION OF THE AREA. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH  
TUESDAY. /29  
 
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...AN UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO EXPAND FURTHER EAST  
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE EAST  
COAST DURING THE SHORT TERM. AS THE MAIN TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST,  
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT LAGS AND A WEAK TROUGH/LOW AT 300MB DRIFTS  
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS FEATURE  
EVENTUALLY GETS PUSHED INTO THE GULF AS THE RIDGE NUDGES CLOSER TO  
THE REGION. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE  
RIDGE WITH A GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. OPERATIONAL MODELS  
CONTINUE TO SHOW SHORTWAVES TRAVELING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE  
RIDGE ALOFT WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY  
IN THE SHORT TERM. DOWN NEAR THE SURFACE, THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE  
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF DURING THE PERIOD.  
 
DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO GET DRAGGED  
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD, WHICH  
SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION SOMEWHAT ACROSS INLAND AREAS.  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OF STORMS OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE  
COAST WHERE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARE LOCATED.  
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET ON WEDNESDAY  
EVENING.  
 
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO LOW 90S YET AGAIN ON  
WEDNESDAY. THE HEAT INDEX WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 102-106 ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW SPOTS NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE RIVER  
DELTA RISING TO NEAR 108. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO SOUND LIKE A  
BROKEN RECORD, AS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY  
FALLING INTO THE MID TO LOW 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT  
THE BEACHES ON BOTH NIGHTS. 07/MB  
 
EXTENDED TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...NORTHEAST TO EAST MID  
LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE EXTENDED TERM PERIOD, BUT BECOMING  
MORE PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A MID  
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN  
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.  
MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK FLOW  
PATTERN. THE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WITH THE  
DAILY SEA/LAND BREEZE CYCLE AND AFTERNOON HEATING THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND THE 40  
TO 60 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS  
WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PASS OVER  
THE AREA AND ACT ON A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA  
BREEZE NEAR THE COAST EACH LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND  
THEN FARTHER INLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING  
HOURS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE MID 90S  
INLAND AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST, WITH HEAT INDICES REMAINING IN  
THE 100 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MID 70S  
OVER THE INTERIOR AND IN THE UPPER 70S NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST EACH  
NIGHT. /13/12  
 
MARINE...NO IMPACTS ARE FORECAST EXCEPT WINDS AND WAVES HIGHER NEAR  
SHOWERS AND STORMS. /29  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING  
FOR ALZ261>266.  
 
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING  
FOR FLZ201>206.  
 
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING  
FOR MSZ075-076-078-079.  
 
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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