264
FXUS64 KMOB 111159
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
659 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
- INCREASING CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES (UP TO
EF2 IN INTENSITY) AND STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS (70+MPH).
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA BEACHES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
FOG REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING BEFORE ALL EYES TURN TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TONIGHT. PATCHY, POTENTIALLY DENSE, FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE ISN'T AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE FOG SIGNAL IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE, A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS TEXAS THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY PIVOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-65 THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING HOURS AND PASSING NORTH OF OUR AREA.
CAMS ARE SHOWING MORE THAN AMPLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SPREADING
OVERHEAD BY MIDNIGHT AS A SQUALL LINE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. THERE
HAS BEEN A TREND IN SOME OF THE RECENT CAMS FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP OUT IN FRONT OF THE LINE BY 9-10PM ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION OF
THE LINE. GIVEN THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SQUALL LINE, WE ARE STARTING TO BECOME MORE CONCERNED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES (UP TO EF2 IN INTENSITY) AND STRONG,
DAMAGING WINDS (70+MPH). THE LINE WILL BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOORSTEP
AS EARLY AS 10-11PM (IMPACTING OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES
FIRST) AND QUICKLY SLIDING EAST TO THE I-65 CORRIDOR AS EARLY AS 12-
1AM. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS THE LINE OF STORMS EAST OF OUR
AREA BY 6AM, WHICH IS A SOLID 2-4 HOURS EARLIER THAN THE HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWED YESTERDAY. WE WILL NOTE THAT SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY ALONG A BROKEN LINE
FOCUSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES (RATHER THAN A SOLID SQUALL
LINE), WHICH IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY, BUT DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE
THE OVERALL IMPACTS OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE SPC DOES NOW HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA
HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5 RISK) RISK, WE WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE RISK IS INCREASED AGAIN ACROSS A PORTION OF OUR
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL (1.5-2.5 INCHES) IS ALSO EXPECTED, BUT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS LINE SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF STORMS AND FRONT, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. THE AREA REMAINS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CRATER BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S-60S ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS TANKING INTO THE 30S-
40S AREA-WIDE BOTH NIGHTS.
BEACH FORECAST - HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE RISK QUICKLY DROPPING TO A LOW
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 07/MB
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE AT ISSUANCE TIME. CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME PREVALENT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS RETURN BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS A LINE OF
STORMS BEGINS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST OUT AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AS THIS
LINE PASSES THROUGH. A FEW SEVERE STORMS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES, ARE POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25 KNOTS. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE MARINE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO
POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. 07/MB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 81 54 67 43 / 10 90 40 0
PENSACOLA 78 58 68 48 / 10 90 50 0
DESTIN 76 60 69 49 / 10 80 70 0
EVERGREEN 85 52 66 39 / 10 90 50 0
WAYNESBORO 83 48 64 39 / 30 100 20 0
CAMDEN 83 48 62 40 / 10 100 40 0
CRESTVIEW 82 56 70 41 / 10 90 60 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
GMZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
GMZ633>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
GMZ650-655-670-675.
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