550
FXUS64 KMOB 222331
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 627 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TOMORROW FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
FROM 11AM TO 8PM FOR HEAT INDICES UP TO 109.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
THE MAIN IMPACTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK; NO UPDATES NEEDED. /96
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THIS WEEKEND WE FINALLY HAVE SOME REPRIEVE FROM THE NUMEROUS DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. PWATS HAVE
DECREASED AND WILL BE IN THE 1.4-1.6" RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT JUST ALONG THE
SEABREEZE BOTH AFTERNOONS.
IT IS STILL HOT WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA AND POSSIBLY REACHING 100, ESPECIALLY IN OUR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES TOMORROW. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWER FROM THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS WITH SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE FOR OUR
NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR 11AM-8PM
TOMORROW FOR OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES FOR HEAT INDEX
VALUES UP TO 109. ELSEWHERE, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE JUST BELOW
CRITERIA IN THE 100-107 RANGE WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS ALONG THE
COAST THAT MAY BRIEFLY REACH UP TO 110 BEHIND THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. ANYBODY OUTDOORS SHOULD DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE
BREAKS IN A/C WHEN POSSIBLE.
MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE DRY AIR WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. PWATS INCREASE BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE BEGINNING
MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN VALUES OF 1.9-
2.2". AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS PLACES THE AREA UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS
PATTERN CAN BRING MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOWN INTO OUR AREA, SO
WE WILL WATCH FOR ANY OF THESE RIDGE RIDERS WATCH AS WE HEAD INTO
THE NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, EXPECT NORMAL SUMMERTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK.
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT IS IN STORE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO CONTINUE TO BE JUST
BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 108 FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
MAXIMUM VALUES OF 100-107 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EACH DAY. HEAT
HEADLINES ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE EACH DAY SHOULD LIMIT THE HEAT SOMEWHAT. LOW TEMPERATURES
BRING SOME OVERNIGHT RELIEF WITH VALUES IN THE LOW 70S FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH MID TO UPPER 70S JUST ALONG THE COAST.
..BEACH FORECAST
THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW FOR ALL AREA BEACHES IN
FLORIDA AND ALABAMA. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, SURF HEIGHTS REMAIN
GENERALLY 1 TO POTENTIALLY 2 FEET THROUGH THE END NEXT WEEK.
SS/97
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER COASTAL COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT BRIEF REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
A LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND BY THE MORNING HOURS.
WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A PATTERN THAT
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY EACH AFTERNOON TO NORTHWESTERLY LATE EACH
NIGHT. ISOLATED TO POTENTIALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH MORNING NEXT WEEK WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS AND WINDS
NEAR STORMS. SS/97
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 74 97 75 93 / 0 30 10 60
PENSACOLA 77 96 79 93 / 0 30 10 60
DESTIN 79 93 80 91 / 0 20 10 50
EVERGREEN 71 99 72 94 / 0 20 10 40
WAYNESBORO 73 100 73 92 / 10 10 30 50
CAMDEN 72 97 73 92 / 0 10 20 40
CRESTVIEW 72 97 73 95 / 0 30 10 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...NONE.
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