669
FXUS64 KMOB 091132
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
532 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
- A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. A LOWER RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA GOING INTO SATURDAY.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
- STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
A LARGE UPPER TROF MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS
SLOWLY PROGRESSES INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEEP
SURFACE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AND
BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER
CONFLUENCE THEN OVER TO NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. IN RESPONSE TO
THE SLOWLY ADVANCING LARGE UPPER TROF, A SECOND SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES, AND IN THE PROCESS
BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY INTO THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH.
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL LEAD TO CONVECTION SPREADING INTO ROUGHLY
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND PERSISTING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH AS THE
SHORTWAVES LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH, THE STRENGTH OF THE
FORCING WITH THIS CONVECTION LOOKS WEAKER COMPARED TO FRIDAY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AND FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA GENERALLY FROM FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
CONSIDERING DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS PORTION AT THIS POINT AND CONTINUE TO
REASSESS. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, AFTER WHICH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT TEND TO RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 30S NEAR THE COAST, AND
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER A BIT
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
AGAIN BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TEND TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S AT THE
COAST. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
THROUGH, BUT DESPITE THE COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS RAIN. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, AFTER WHICH A LOW RISK IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY. /29
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
WILL RISE TO GENERAL MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WILL BRING INCREASING COVERAGE OF LOW END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED AT TIMES, MAINLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. DENSE MARINE FOG IS LIKELY UNTIL MID THURSDAY
MORNING MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BAYS. A STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT,
THEN DIMINISHES ON MONDAY. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL
OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 76 64 74 45 / 70 70 100 20
PENSACOLA 74 67 74 49 / 20 40 90 40
DESTIN 72 65 72 50 / 10 30 80 50
EVERGREEN 78 64 76 43 / 40 60 100 20
WAYNESBORO 74 62 72 40 / 80 90 90 10
CAMDEN 76 62 72 40 / 70 80 100 20
CRESTVIEW 77 64 77 46 / 20 30 90 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ634>636-
655.
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