105
FXUS64 KMOB 231817 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1217 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2020
NEAR TERM UPDATE /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/
BETTER MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF MS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
SOUTHEAST OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AL AND NWFL THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE SW CONUS AND
LOWER PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT THEN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE PLAINS STATES AND MS RIVER VALLEY MON INTO MON
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO DAMPEN OR WEAKEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE
DAY ON MON BEFORE BECOMING REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE MON INTO TUE. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF STATES AND FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON
COMBINED WITH WEAK INSENTROPIC LIFT WEST OF A DEPARTING RIDGE AND
BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS REASONING
WELL SHOWING INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE
DAY ON MON WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE SURFACE A DEVELOPING LOW AND COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH ON MON REACHING THE LA/TX BORDER STRETCHING
SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN TX BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. THE BEST SHEAR
AND FORCING IN THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUES TO BE OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF AL AND MS WITH LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY, REMAINING MOSTLY ELEVATED OVER ALL INLAND AREAS
DURING THE DAY ON MON. AS A RESULT STILL BELIEVE WE WILL SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MON
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN LOCALLY IN SOME AREAS TO THE
NORTH BECOMING THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH MON AFTERNOON WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE
AVIATION
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 24.09Z FOLLOWED BY
MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 24.18Z. EXPECT
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ON MON WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THROUGH 24.18Z. 32/EE
EXTENDED TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL SPAN THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND. A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ON THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH, AND WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THIS PATTERN. A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN TX AND THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS, WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
ONLY LOOKING TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S, WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
RANGE BETWEEN 30-33 GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 THURSDAY
NIGHT, WHILE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST LOOK TO RANGE
IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS NORTHWESTERLY THIS WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WITH WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CLIPPING OUR AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH EITHER LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW CONSIDERING MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES AND
LACK OF MOISTURE, SO WILL FOLLOW NBM TRENDS OF KEEPING POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS COULD BE SOMETHING
TO WATCH FOR AN EVENTUAL POTENTIAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER
OUR INTERIOR EITHER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. VERY LOW DEEP LAYER RH
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
FORECAST ON SUNDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION MAY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORNING LOWS MOSTLY RANGING IN THE 30S. /21
MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY BY
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH BECOMES STRONG BY WEDNESDAY. THE
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY SUBSIDES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MOST OF
THE MARINE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PATCHY ADVECTION FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE BAYS AND NEAR
SHORE WATERS BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS WARM, HUMID
AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE COLDER MARINE WATERS. /29
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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