217  
FNUS74 KLZK 141252  
FWSLZK  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR PCS BUFFALO...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
752 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON SEPTEMBER 14.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IMMEDIATELY.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (501) 834-0308 AND ASK FOR THE FIRE WEATHER FORECASTER IF  
YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS TODAY, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT  
AND VARIABLE (5 MPH OR LESS), BUT THE PREVAILING DIRECTION WILL  
LIKELY BE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77 AT IGNITION...MAX 92.  
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 39 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
STABILITY CLASS.....B.  
20 FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH AT  
IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5  
MPH LATE IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY  
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).  
DISPERSION..........16.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.  
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).BECOMING 7464 FT MSL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).BECOMING 6300 FT AGL.  
 
TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY COVER.......MCR MCR PC PC PC PC PC MCR  
WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO  
TEMP............77 81 85 88 89 89 90 88  
RH..............62 52 48 43 41 41 39 43  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE E E  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 3 3 2 3 3 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 5 4 4 4 5 5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE E E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 9 8 6 5 5 5 6  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 69.  
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 80 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS.  
STABILITY CLASS.....E.  
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
LVORI...............1.  
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).  
DISPERSION..........13 EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY COVER.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR  
WEATHER COV.....ISO  
WEATHER TYPE....RW  
TSTM COV........ISO  
TEMP............86 85 82 80 78 77 76 75 74 73 72 72  
RH..............46 48 55 59 62 66 68 71 73 74 76 77  
20 FT WIND DIR..E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 6 5 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 91.  
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 39 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS.  
STABILITY CLASS.....B.  
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS.  
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).  
DISPERSION..........7.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).BECOMING 9614 FT MSL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).BECOMING 8400 FT AGL.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY COVER.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............71 70 73 77 81 84 86 89 90 90 91 90  
RH..............79 80 74 67 61 54 49 44 42 41 39 41  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E E E E  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2  
20 FT WIND GUST. 2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE E NE N N NE E E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.2 2 3 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 2 2  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
 

 
FORECASTER...B SMITH  
REQUESTED BY...RL SELF  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1915228.3/LZK  
.DELDT 09/14/19  
.EMAIL RAYMOND.SELF@USDA.GOV  
 
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