430
FNUS74 KMEG 061015
FWSMEG
SPOT FORECAST FOR STF LAGRANGE 1...ST. FRANCIS NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
415 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CST ON MARCH 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
EXPECT CAT DAY VALUES OF 4 TO 5 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
DECREASING BELOW 3 AFTER 4 PM CST. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SOUTHERLY 20 FT WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. 20 FT WIND GUSTS NEAR
20 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF A WETTING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. FOG DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...11 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............64.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 23 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).700-5400 FT MSL.
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...213-1646 METERS AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 22 TO 26 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 16 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTH 10 TO 12 METERS/SECOND DECREASING TO
AROUND 7 METERS/SECOND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
2000 FT WINDS.......SOUTH 20 TO 23 MPH.
5000 FT WINDS.......SOUTH 29 TO 31 MPH DECREASING TO 22 TO 25 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (17100 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.01 INCHES.
TIME (CST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........72 65 50 50 49 34 44 53
WEATHER COV..... SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............10 10 20 10 10 10 10 10
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 20 10 10 10 10 10
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............71 73 75 78 79 80 81 79
DEWPOINT........66 66 66 65 64 63 63 63
RH..............84 79 74 64 60 56 54 58
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6
20 FT WIND GUST.18 18 18 18 18 16 14 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.6 2.2 3.2 4.1 5.2 5.4 4.1 0.7
MX HT MSL (KFT).1.6 2.2 3.2 4.1 5.2 5.4 4.1 0.7
MIX HGT (KM)....0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.2 0.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.22 23 25 26 24 23 22 16
TRANS WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S
TRANS SPD (M/S).10 10 11 12 11 10 10 7
2000 FT WND DIR.S S S S S S S S
2000 FT WND SPD.23 23 22 21 20 20 20 20
5000 FT WND DIR.S S S S S S S S
5000 FT WND SPD.29 31 31 29 25 23 22 23
VRATE KT-FT/1K..5 7 11 15 17 17 12 2
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING, THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT EARLY IN
THE EVENING, THEN INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DECREASING TO 20
PERCENT OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT
INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...37 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............65.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 23 MPH IN
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).400-700 FT MSL.
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...122-213 METERS AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 TO 22 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTH 6 TO 10 METERS/SECOND.
2000 FT WINDS.......SOUTH 22 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 31 TO 35 MPH
EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN INCREASING TO 33 TO
37 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
DECREASING TO AROUND 32 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
5000 FT WINDS.......SOUTH 24 TO 28 MPH INCREASING TO 36 TO 37 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (800 KNOT-FT).
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.04 INCHES.
TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........44 46 36 40 46 49 47 54 47 50 66 92
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH CHC LKY
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC
CWR.............10 20 20 30 30 30 30 30 20 20 40 70
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 30 30 30 30 30 20 20 40 70
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 40 40
TEMP............77 75 72 72 71 71 70 70 70 69 68 68
DEWPOINT........63 63 63 64 64 65 65 66 67 67 67 67
RH..............62 66 73 76 79 81 84 87 90 93 97 97
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8
20 FT WIND GUST.11 13 14 14 16 17 18 18 18 18 18 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7
MX HT MSL (KFT).0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7
MIX HGT (KM)....0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 15 17 16 18 20 21 22 20 20 20 22
TRANS WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S
TRANS SPD (M/S).6 7 8 7 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 10
2000 FT WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S
2000 FT WND SPD.22 25 31 35 37 37 37 36 35 33 32 32
5000 FT WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S SW SW SW
5000 FT WND SPD.24 28 32 36 37 37 37 37 36 36 36 37
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................100 PERCENT DECREASING TO 80 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......100 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...54 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............67.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 18
MPH IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BECOMING
LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).600-1500 FT MSL.
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...183-457 METERS AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 23 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AROUND 12 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTHWEST 7 TO 10 METERS/SECOND SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
2000 FT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 28 TO 31 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 24
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
5000 FT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 33 TO 37 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 25
MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1100 KNOT-FT).
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....1.09 INCHES.
TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........91 86 88 90 89 88 87 86 85 84 85 85
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............100 100 100 100 100 100 80 80 80 80 80 80
CHC OF PCPN (%).100 100 100 100 100 100 80 80 80 80 80 80
CHC OF THDR (%).50 50 50 30 30 30 40 40 40 40 40 40
TEMP............68 66 67 68 68 69 69 70 70 71 70 68
DEWPOINT........67 66 67 68 68 67 67 67 66 66 66 66
RH..............97 100 100 100 100 93 93 90 87 84 87 93
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S SW SW SW S
20 FT WIND SPD..8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.18 18 18 16 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.7
MX HT MSL (KFT).0.6 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.7
MIX HGT (KM)....0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.20 20 21 22 22 23 23 22 20 17 15 12
TRANS WIND DIR..S S SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S
TRANS SPD (M/S).9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 5
2000 FT WND DIR.S S SW SW SW SW S S SW SW SW SW
2000 FT WND SPD.31 30 29 28 28 28 28 29 29 29 28 24
5000 FT WND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
5000 FT WND SPD.37 37 37 37 37 36 35 33 32 31 29 25
VRATE KT-FT/1K..2 3 4 4 3 4 5 5 4 3 2 1
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
FORECASTER...MCNEIL S.
REQUESTED BY...GARRETT PITSENBARGER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2604925.0/MEG
.DELDT 03/06/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL GARRETT.PITSENBARGER@USDA.GOV,WILLIAM.HILTON@USDA.GOV
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