528  
FNUS74 KMEG 172011  
FWSMEG  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BURN BLOCK 119...U.S. FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
311 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1600 CDT ON APRIL 17.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.  
CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING. THE ACTIVITY WILL  
DIMINISH BY SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY  
WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  
CWR.................20 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.  
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............57.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...732-945 METERS AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 16 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTH AROUND 7 METERS/SECOND.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MISSING.  
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.  
 
TIME (CDT) 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........79 79  
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW  
TSTM COV........ISO ISO  
CWR.............20 20  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20  
TEMP............77 77  
DEWPOINT........57 57  
RH..............50 50  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.1 2.4  
MIX HGT (KM)....0.9 0.7  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.16 15  
TRANS WIND DIR..S S  
TRANS SPD (M/S).7 7  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
CWR.................20 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............56.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5  
MPH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...61-457 METERS AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 13 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTH 3 TO 6 METERS/SECOND.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MISSING.  
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........79 81 92 84 76 64 32 31 30 31 31 88  
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ISO SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
CWR.............20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20  
TEMP............76 74 71 69 67 66 65 64 63 62 61 61  
DEWPOINT........57 55 56 57 57 58 57 57 58 58 58 58  
RH..............52 51 59 66 70 75 75 78 84 87 90 90  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 5 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4  
MIX HGT (KM)....0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S SE S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 12 10 10 9 8 7 7 8 9 10 12  
TRANS WIND DIR..S S S S SE S S S S S S S  
TRANS SPD (M/S).6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 5  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING,  
THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE  
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................20 PERCENT INCREASING TO 100 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......100 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.  
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............60.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...61-274 METERS AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 1  
TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTH 4 TO 7 METERS/SECOND SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHWEST 0 TO 3 METERS/SECOND LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MISSING.  
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....1.37 INCHES.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........99 100 94 100 100 100  
WEATHER COV.....S CHC LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........S CHC LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE  
CWR.............20 70 70 70 100 100  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 70 70 70 100 100  
TEMP............60 62 66 69 71 72  
DEWPOINT........58 59 61 62 61 60  
RH..............93 90 84 78 71 66  
20 FT WIND......S 5 S 5 S 7 S 7 S 7 S 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 8 13 12 13 12  
MIX HGT (FT)....600 700 700 800 700 400  
MIX HGT (M).....180 210 210 240 210 120  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 14 S 16 S 16 S 15 S 9 W 3  
TRAN WIND (M/S).S 6 S 7 S 7 S 7 S 4 W 1  
 

 
FORECASTER...MCNEIL K.  
REQUESTED BY...JIM WALDEN  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1906376.1/MEG  
.DELDT 04/17/19  
 
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