595
FNUS74 KMEG 081013
FWSMEG
SPOT FORECAST FOR BAGLEY BOTTOM BURN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
513 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 CDT ON OCTOBER 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S THIS
AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSION WILL IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS 20 FT
WINDS INCREASE BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A HURRICANE IN THE GULF AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US. WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (41300 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........3 2 0 1 2 2 3 3 4 2 3 3
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............58 59 64 68 78 82 85 88 88 89 89 87
RH..............83 83 75 68 48 38 32 27 28 27 26 30
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 3 3 5 3
20 FT WIND GUST.2 2 2 2 4 5 6 7 8 8 10 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.2 3.2 4.1 4.7 5.3 5.7 5.9 4.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E NE NE NE NE E E E NE NE E
TRANSP WIND SPD.3 3 3 3 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 9
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 1 1 1 5 16 25 28 32 34 41 39
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR PR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...1 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MAX HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2200 KNOT-FT).
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........1 4 3 3 4 2 4 5 6 4 4 3
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............84 80 74 72 70 69 68 67 66 65 63 63
RH..............36 44 55 59 63 66 68 70 70 70 75 75
20 FT WIND DIR..NE E E NE E E E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.7 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8
VRATE KT-FT/1K..9 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...1 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN
THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (66900 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........2 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 3 6
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............62 61 63 69 76 81 84 86 87 88 88 86
RH..............75 78 75 61 52 41 36 31 30 28 27 30
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 3 2 3 5 6 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 10 8 8 10 11 12 12 13 13 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.8 4.0 4.9 6.0 6.4 6.1 4.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 9 9 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 13 12
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 3 4 10 15 28 44 49 60 64 67 49
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR GD GD FR
FORECASTER...SIRMON
REQUESTED BY...TY COBB
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2623249.1/MEG
.DELDT 10/08/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL TY.COBB@USDA.GOV
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