432  
FNUS74 KTSA 141253  
FWSTSA  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR HOLLOW COOP BURN...AGFC  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
653 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 CST ON JANUARY 15.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT NWS TULSA AT (918)838-7838, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY, WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO  
BELOW 35 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST  
AROUND 5 MILES AN HOUR, WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 10-15 MILES AN  
HOUR.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.  
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............13 INCREASING TO 19 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING  
AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST  
AROUND 13 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (21639 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO GOOD (30163 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
STABILITY CLASS.....3.  
1700FT AVG MIX T(F).31 INCREASING TO 38 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (CST) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........15 17 16 14 13 12 11 10 14 19  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............20 24 29 34 38 41 43 44 44 42  
DEWPOINT........12 13 13 12 12 14 17 19 20 21  
RH..............71 62 51 40 34 33 35 36 38 43  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 8 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 13  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.5 1.9 1.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW W W W W W W W W SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 10 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..22 22 22 22 30 30 30 30 30 30  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
1700FT MIX T(F).27 28 29 31 33 35 37 39 39 39  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 34.  
MAX HUMIDITY........79 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............23 INCREASING TO 27 OVERNIGHT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND  
16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 6 MPH AFTER  
3 AM.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 10  
TO 15 MPH AFTER 3 AM.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (7868 KNOT-FT).  
STABILITY CLASS.....6.  
1700FT AVG MIX T(F).41.  
 
TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........23 22 20 19 16 13 10 9 9 8 10 11  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............41 40 39 38 38 39 39 39 39 38 37 36  
DEWPOINT........21 21 22 22 23 24 25 26 26 27 28 28  
RH..............44 46 50 52 54 54 57 59 59 64 70 72  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 14 16 16 16 16 16 14 14 14 13  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 14 16 17 18 18 18 17 16 15 13 10  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
1700FT MIX T(F).39 39 40 41 43 44 45 43 41 39 38 39  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.  
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............28 DECREASING TO 19.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH  
EARLY IN THE MORNING THEN 28 MPH EARLY IN THE  
MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 32 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 21 TO 28  
MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 26  
TO 33 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO  
AROUND 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (80655 KNOT-FT).  
STABILITY CLASS.....4.  
1700FT AVG MIX T(F).39.  
 
TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........13 23 34 44 41 38 35 31 27 23 30 37  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............35 36 37 39 41 43 44 45 46 46 45 43  
DEWPOINT........29 30 30 30 28 26 24 22 21 20 19 19  
RH..............78 79 75 70 59 51 45 40 37 35 35 38  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 9 9 10 12 11 11 12 10 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.16 14 17 22 20 21 26 23 23 26 22 21  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.6 0.9 1.6 2.6 3.7 4.9 6.1 7.0 7.0 5.4 3.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 10 14 17 21 24 28 31 33 32 26 20  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..81 81 81 81 81 81 131 131 131 131 131 131  
VENTRATE CAT....GD GD GD GD GD GD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD  
1700FT MIX T(F).39 39 40 40 39 39 38 38 39 39 39 38  
 

 
FORECASTER...PLATE  
REQUESTED BY...EMILY ROBERTS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2600124.0/TSA  
.DELDT 01/14/26  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL EMILY.ROBERTS@AGFC.AR.GOV  
 
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