126  
FNUS74 KTSA 161735  
FWSTSA  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR CHANCELLOR FIRE...US FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2022  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1300 CDT ON AUGUST 16.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT NWS TULSA AT (918)838-7838, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
..HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
HOT TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING DOWNSLOPE BY THIS EVENING. A COLD  
FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WIND BECOMING MORE  
NORTHERLY, WITH COOLER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH A  
GOOD PART OF THURSDAY.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 98.  
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............63.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (81967 KNOT-FT).  
STABILITY CLASS.....3.  
1700FT AVG MIX T(F).97.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT.  
 
TIME (CDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........40 44 49 46 43  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............94 96 97 98 98  
DEWPOINT........65 64 62 62 61  
RH..............37 34 33 32 32  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 4 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 6 6 6  
EYE LVL WND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW  
EYE LVL WND SPD.5 5 5 4 4  
EYE LVL WND GST.6 6 6 6 6  
MIX HGT (KFT)...7.4 8.3 9.0 9.0 8.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 5 5 10  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..82 82 82 82 82  
VENTRATE CAT....GD GD GD GD GD  
1700FT MIX T(F).96 98 98 98 97  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.  
MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............63 INCREASING TO 68 OVERNIGHT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH  
OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. GUSTY  
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS  
OVERNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (81967 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (5901 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
STABILITY CLASS.....5.  
1700FT AVG MIX T(F).97.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH  
OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........55 40 41 47 57 64 57 41 43 38 37 37  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
TEMP............98 94 89 86 82 81 79 78 76 74 73 72  
DEWPOINT........62 63 64 64 65 65 67 67 67 68 68 69  
RH..............33 37 44 48 55 56 63 65 69 74 76 82  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW S SE SE SE S S SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4  
EYE LVL WND DIR.SW SW S SE SE SE S S SE SE SE SE  
EYE LVL WND SPD.4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 3  
EYE LVL WND GST.6 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4  
MIX HGT (KFT)...8.0 3.0 2.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W S S S S S S S S SE S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 8 6 14 10 14 15 8 8 8 10 10  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..82 22 22 22 22 22 22 6 6 6 6 6  
VENTRATE CAT....GD PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
1700FT MIX T(F).95 93 97 101 102 100 96 93 94 95 95 94  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING,  
THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85.  
MIN HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............70.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 6  
MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTH 3 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING SHIFTING  
TO THE WEST LATE IN THE MORNING SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5901 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO FAIR (28852 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
STABILITY CLASS.....4.  
1700FT AVG MIX T(F).88 DECREASING TO 80 IN THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........44 46 54 52 53 48 61 69 73 65 60 54  
WEATHER COV.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
TEMP............72 72 72 76 78 81 85 85 83 85 84 83  
DEWPOINT........69 69 70 70 70 70 71 70 70 70 70 70  
RH..............82 82 84 79 76 72 69 67 69 67 69 72  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE NE E E NE N N N N N  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 2 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6  
EYE LVL WND DIR.SE SE SE NE E E NE N N N N N  
EYE LVL WND SPD.3 3 2 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5  
EYE LVL WND GST.4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.9 3.2 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.E W S S SW W W N N N N W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 6 3 5 8 3 3 5 8 8 6 6  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..6 13 13 13 13 13 13 29 29 29 29 29  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
1700FT MIX T(F).92 89 85 81 78 78 80 82 82 82 81 80  
 

 
FORECASTER...SULLIVAN  
REQUESTED BY...M. MOE  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2216789.0/TSA  
.DELDT 08/16/22  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL MATTHEW.MOE@USDA.GOV  
 
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