386
FNUS74 KTSA 091753
FWSTSA
SPOT FORECAST FOR KARST LOOP BURN...ARKANSAS STATE PARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CST ON DECEMBER 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT NWS TULSA AT (918)838-7838, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE BURN SITE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, RESULTING IN A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL
ALSO FOLLOW, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 40 PERCENT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ANG SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............35 DECREASING TO 29 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 23 MPH
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 21 TO 29
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON,
THEN DECREASING TO 12 TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (84590 KNOT-FT).
STABILITY CLASS.....4.
1700FT AVG MIX T(F).46.
TIME (CST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........3 3 16 21 6 2 1 10 16
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............45 47 49 50 50 51 49 49 47
DEWPOINT........33 31 30 29 28 28 28 28 28
RH..............63 53 48 44 42 41 44 44 47
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6
20 FT WIND GUST.18 18 18 18 18 18 16 14 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.3 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.0 0.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW N NW NW N
TRANSP WIND SPD.26 29 29 28 25 24 21 18 12
VRATE KT-FT/1K..85 85 85 87 87 87 87 87 87
VENTRATE CAT....GD GD GD GD GD GD GD GD GD
1700FT MIX T(F).44 43 42 42 42 43 44 44 44
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 32.
MAX HUMIDITY........82 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............28.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 7 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 2
TO 6 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1311 KNOT-FT).
STABILITY CLASS.....6.
1700FT AVG MIX T(F).46.
TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........6 11 20 29 31 34 36 36 37 37 38 38
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............43 41 39 38 37 35 34 34 33 33 33 33
DEWPOINT........28 28 28 28 28 29 29 29 28 28 28 27
RH..............55 59 64 67 70 78 82 82 82 82 82 78
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW W SW SW S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 8 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 6 6
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.N NW NW NW NW W W SW SW S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 9 8 8 7 5 3 2 2 3 5 6
VRATE KT-FT/1K..5 5 5 5 5 5 1 1 1 1 1 1
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
1700FT MIX T(F).44 44 43 43 43 43 44 44 45 46 47 49
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............29 INCREASING TO 33 IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 16 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 21 TO 28
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THEN
DECREASING TO AROUND 17 MPH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (46557 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (68196 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
STABILITY CLASS.....4.
1700FT AVG MIX T(F).51.
TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........39 33 26 20 16 13 9 9 9 9 9 10
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............34 36 39 42 46 51 54 56 56 56 55 54
DEWPOINT........27 27 28 29 30 30 31 32 32 33 33 34
RH..............75 69 64 60 53 44 41 40 40 42 43 47
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 6
20 FT WIND GUST.7 10 10 12 14 14 16 16 16 16 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.5 1.9 1.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 10 13 16 21 25 28 28 26 24 21 17
VRATE KT-FT/1K..47 47 47 47 47 47 68 68 68 68 68 68
VENTRATE CAT....FR FR FR FR FR FR GD GD GD GD GD GD
1700FT MIX T(F).50 51 53 53 52 51 50 50 51 52 52 53
FORECASTER...K.HATFIELD
REQUESTED BY...DAVID ARMSTRONG
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2527222.1/TSA
.DELDT 12/09/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL DAVID.ARMSTRONG@ARKANSAS.GOV
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