963
FXUS64 KJAN 082330 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
530 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CHILLY CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK WITH PERHAPS SOME
FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
- DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY AS WE GO THROUGH
MID TO LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- COLDER WEATHER MAY RETURN BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: IN THE NEAR TERM, A LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN PROMISES TO MAINTAIN CHILLY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND WITH THAT, THERE IS A LOT UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS MAY ERODE AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
SHOULD SHUT DOWN AT MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN A
GREATER CHANCE FOR STRATUS DISSIPATION, BUT WITH LITTLE MIXING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FEEBLE EARLY DEC SUN,
WE'RE LEANING TOWARD A MORE PESSIMISTIC LOW CLOUD FORECAST.
WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING
AT MANY LOCATIONS, AND NOT GET QUITE AS COLD AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST BY MODEL BLENDS. ALSO, THERE WOULD ALSO BE LESS
OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG FORMATION. ON THE FLIP SIDE, IN THE CASE OF
EARLIER CLEARING, WE WOULD HAVE COLDER LOWS AND GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR FOG, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AND THE DENSE FOG
THREAT TOO CONDITIONAL TO FORMALLY MESSAGE IT AT THIS POINT. THE
BOTTOM LINE HERE IS TO EXPECT A CLOUDIER AND NOT AS COLD/FOGGY
FORECAST TONIGHT, BUT MONITOR FOR EARLIER CLEARING AND FORECAST
CHANGES THAT WOULD BRING.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND: DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE IN OUR AREA, AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL AS WE FINISH UP THIS WEEK AND GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE MAY BE A MORE DRAMATIC WARM-UP FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH MUCH CHILLIER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER RANGE REMAINS
QUITE LOW DUE TO LARGE VARIANCE IN THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AND POOR
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE DETAILS IN OUR AREA. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
LOW STRATUS IS TRYING TO ERODE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING,
BUT IT'S CURRENTLY STRUGGLING AND THUS LOOKS TO PLAGUE AREA TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG, MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20, WILL
YIELD MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT TAF SITES THOUGH AT LEAST
LATE MORNING TUESDAY. STRATUS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
ERODE THROUGH LATE MORNING, WITH A RETURN TO VFR CATEGORIES
EXPECTED BY MIDDAY. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING EASTERLY COMPONENT. THESE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 3-8 KNOTS. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 31 58 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 29 57 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 32 58 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 33 59 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 32 59 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 31 54 41 61 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 30 56 40 62 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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