507
FXUS64 KJAN 071138
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
638 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
TODAY INTO TONIGHT: A WEAK FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
OUR REGION. THERE COULD BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF YESTERDAY IN
TERMS OF MICROBURST POTENTIAL FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR. THE MORE CONFIDENT AXIS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ROUGHLY IN THE NATCHEZ-HATTIESBURG CORRIDOR, BUT THERE IS A THREAT
FOR STORMS THAT EXISTS UP TO ABOUT I-20. SPC'S DEPICTION OF A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN HOW HOT BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL BE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULDN'T PERSIST ALL THAT LONG INTO THE EVENING WITH MOSTLY
QUIET CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. OTHERWISE, THE WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A
BRIEF SPELL OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR OVER PARTS OF NORTH MS AND
AR, POTENTIALLY ENCROACHING CLOSER TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR DURING THE
DAY. WHILE THIS COULD HELP TO LIMIT HEAT INDICES THE FARTHER
NORTH ONE GOES IN OUR AREA, IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HOT
IN THESE AREAS NEVERTHELESS. AND FURTHER SOUTH, THE HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN; THUS, ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IS BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK: THE WEAK FRONT WILL WASH
OUT, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERING AGAIN AREAWIDE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLY HOT EACH
DAY, AND IT'S POSSIBLE HEAT STRESS POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES IN SOME AREAS, THOUGH FORECAST HEAT
INDICES ARE LOOKING MORE MARGINAL BEYOND TUESDAY THAN WHAT HAS
BEEN EXPERIENCED IN RECENT DAYS. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE, INITIALLY FOCUSED MIDWEEK MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH MS AND LA,
BUT EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /DL/EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
ASIDE FROM A FEW PATCHY AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS THIS AFTN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-20,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 99 74 96 73 / 20 20 10 0
MERIDIAN 100 73 93 72 / 20 20 0 0
VICKSBURG 99 74 97 73 / 10 10 0 0
HATTIESBURG 99 74 94 73 / 40 40 30 10
NATCHEZ 99 74 97 73 / 30 20 40 10
GREENVILLE 100 73 100 75 / 0 0 10 0
GREENWOOD 99 73 97 73 / 0 0 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ018-019-034-035-040>043-047>066-072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ074-075.
DL/EC
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