346
FXUS64 KJAN 171117
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
617 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WILL INCREASE, AND THE RISK FOR
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL DECREASE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
AN ESPECIALLY INTENSE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL MAINTAIN IT'S
POSITION OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A HOT LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE AXIS (E.G., H850 T UP TO 24 DEG C) WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 104 DEG F IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION,
AND THE 100 TO 103 DEG F RANGE ELSEWHERE. A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN, AND HEAT INDICES WILL BE HOT
ENOUGH TO MEET EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA IN SPITE OF GREATER
MIXING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT HEAT GRAPHICS
FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAINED AN EXTREME HEAT
WARNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED. ADDITIONAL HEAT
RELATED MESSAGING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, THERE CONTINUE TO BE
INDICATIONS THAT STRONG WESTERLIES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF SUPPRESSING AND WEAKENING THE RIDGE, AND THUS
ALLOWING FOR GREATER CONVECTIVE RAINFALL CHANCES IN OUR AREA. IN
ADDITION, WITH THE INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW AND LAPSE RATES BEING
FORECAST, THIS COULD BE A TIME TO MONITOR FOR MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREATS, ESPECIALLY PER RECENT NCAR AI-
NWP GUIDANCE IN THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME. /EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SOME LIGHT SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE PINE BELT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON (AFTER 17/20Z), BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
INTRODUCE IN THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 100 78 101 77 / 10 0 10 10
MERIDIAN 100 77 100 75 / 30 10 10 10
VICKSBURG 99 78 100 78 / 0 0 10 10
HATTIESBURG 100 78 101 78 / 20 20 30 20
NATCHEZ 100 77 101 78 / 0 0 20 10
GREENVILLE 103 78 101 78 / 10 10 20 0
GREENWOOD 101 76 99 75 / 10 10 10 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
025>066-072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007-015-023-024.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ008-009-
016-025-026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ075.
EC/CR
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