211
FXUS64 KJAN 231730
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1130 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2020
UPDATE
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION
18Z TAF DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES CURRENTLY BUT WILL BEGIN
TO VARY IN CATEGORY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. VCSH/-SHRA WILL EFFECT TAF SITES
ACROSS THE DELTA REGION AROUND 03Z. AS THE RAIN BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD AND INCREASING FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z, CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO LOWER AT GLH THEN EVENTUALLY ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS STARTING AROUND 13Z./JNE/
DISCUSSION
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE PREVAILING IN THE FAR NORTH EAST OF THE
CWA. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THOUGH THIS MORNING WE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY
DRY, A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
NORTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS EVENING APPROACHES. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO LOW 60S IN
THE SOUTH./JNE/
PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW:
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE PLANES. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTH TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTH.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING,
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WEST. PWATS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. /15/
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: COME MONDAY MORNING A CLOSED LOW AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CLOSED
LOW WILL OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST AS WELL AND DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES BY
MONDAY EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, LOWER 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND MLCAPE VALUES LOOK
TO REMAIN LESS THAN 200J/KG LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM
CONCERNS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE A HALF INCH
OR LESS SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AS WELL. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA PRIOR TO SUNRISE
TUESDAY AND THE RAIN WILL END FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST
OF OUR CWA TUESDAY, OUR WINDS ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF A
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS LOW WILL SWING ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE
TRENDED DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE OVER OR CWA BUT LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE CARRIED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT IN OUR NORTHERN
MOST ZONES WHERE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN BEFORE SHIFTING EAST SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION, COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT BY WEDNESDAY AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 62 50 65 48 / 7 20 98 40
MERIDIAN 62 49 65 52 / 3 20 96 73
VICKSBURG 62 52 67 47 / 11 24 94 22
HATTIESBURG 65 50 69 54 / 1 18 94 84
NATCHEZ 63 53 66 47 / 5 19 96 34
GREENVILLE 57 50 65 45 / 43 78 87 11
GREENWOOD 58 50 63 46 / 12 72 96 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
JNE
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