003
FXUS64 KJAN 030530 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1130 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND AREAS
OF DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEAST.
- SEASONABLE WARMTH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- WET AND STORMY PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND, WITH CONTINUED SIGNALS OF
MORE IMPACTFUL CONVECTIVE PERIOD AND POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LAYER OF STRATUS MOVING ONSHORE
OVER ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THIS LAYER OF
STRATUS WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR CWA THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS STRATUS LAYER MAY BECOME
DENSE FOG TOWARD MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BUT THE STRATUS MAY
ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED. OTHERWISE, MORNING LOWS TUESDAY WILL BE EVEN
WARMER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
REST OF TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: A QUIET AND MODERATING AFTERNOON IS ON
TAP ACROSS THE REGION. THE REGION REMAINS UNDER DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH 850MB RIDGE TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS
HELPING AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE, AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWS). INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL LIMIT FIRE
DANGER TODAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM, SOME 12F TO 18F
ABOVE (78F TO 82F), WITH SEASONABLY WARM LOWS BOTH TONIGHT, SOME
8F TO 12F ABOVE, AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT, SOME 15F TO 20F
ABOVE (55F TO 60F TONIGHT). FOG LOOKS TO BE THE BIGGER CONCERN.
HREF AND REFS INDICATE ADVECTION FOG CONCERNS, WITH LOW END DENSE
FOG PROBS AND SOME LONGER DURATION OF HIGHER DENSE PROBS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55. ADDED AN HWO
DENSE FOG GRAPHIC FOR ELEVATED IN THE SOUTHEAST AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE AND LIMITED SOUTHEAST OF THE DELTA AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
THIS AREA COULD ADVECT AND BE MORE TRANSIENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20. FOR NOW, PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
MS WHILE AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST MS. HOLDING OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW BASED ON
THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE ADVECTION FOG REGIME.
TUESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND: UPPER PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE GULF WHILE QUASI ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH. THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING HEAT AND SOME GRADUAL UPTICK IN HUMIDITY INTO
THE MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WILL BE
THE STORY, AS THEY CREEP UP, HIGHS SOME 12F TO 20F ABOVE (UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S EARLY WEEK WHILE INTO THE MID 80S BY LATE WEEK)
WHILE LOWS SOME 15F TO 25F ABOVE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (MID 50S
EARLY WEEK BEFORE LOW TO MID 60S INTO LATE WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND). RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH A
RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE (ONE INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF) INTO
LATE WEEK AROUND THURSDAY TO FRIDAY. SOME RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
DEFLECT OFF TO THE NORTH, WITH RECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IN
BLENDED GUIDANCE A LITTLE MORE REASONABLE (35 TO 55 PERCENT).
HOWEVER, THE PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED INTO LATE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING CUTOFF COLD CORE LOW OVER
THE BAJA PENINSULA AND STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO GULF TO CARIBBEAN SEA. AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGS
INTO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA, THIS WILL DRIVE A FRONT DOWN INTO THE
AREA NEXT WEEKEND THAT WILL BRING INCREASED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE,
DEEPER MOIST ADVECTION OF PWS NEAR AN INCH AND A HALF AND
INCREASING LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL
STORMY AND WET NEXT WEEKEND AND THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THERE REMAINS
SPREAD IN THE IN THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION, WITH GFS CONTINUING TO
FAVOR A WESTWARD RETROGRADING CUTOFF LOW AND LESS PHASED WITH JET
ENERGY TO THE NORTH WHILE EURO AND CANADIAN NOW DO SHOW A CUTOFF
LOW BUT NOT AS FAR WEST OVER THE PACIFIC, WHICH WOULD BE A FASTER
EJECTION AND FASTER SOLUTION NEXT WEEK. MACHINE LEARNING, AI AND
CIPS HISTORICAL ANALOG GUIDANCE SUITE STILL SUPPORT A SETUP FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY POSITION OF CUTOFF LOW AND STRONG
SOUTHEAST RIDGE BRING PAUSE, ESPECIALLY ON THE TIMING. STAY TUNED
AS THE PATTERN COMES INTO AGREEMENT AND FINE DETAILS ARE IRONED
OUT, WITH ANY STRONG TO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLE AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /DC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH MS LATE THIS EVENING
AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK AT TERMINALS AREAWIDE. SOME OF THIS MAY BUILD DOWN AND
BECOME FOG, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20. FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH CEILINGS MIXING OUT AND
RISING TO VFR BY MID-MORNING TUESDAY. DURING THE DAYTIME, SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES, WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING BY
SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG IS IN STORE FOR
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 57 80 62 82 / 0 0 0 10
MERIDIAN 56 80 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 55 82 63 81 / 0 0 0 20
HATTIESBURG 59 82 61 84 / 0 0 0 10
NATCHEZ 58 83 64 82 / 0 0 0 30
GREENVILLE 56 79 63 79 / 0 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 58 80 63 81 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/DC/DL
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