624
FXUS64 KJAN 251849
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
149 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO
CLEAR SIGNAL FOR RAIN CHANCES UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
OVERALL, THE TRANSITION AWAY FROM SUMMER IS APPEARING IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NEXT WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING GENERALLY AROUND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY
WILL STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE BROADER
REGION. SPLIT FLOW IS NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE INTO NEXT WEEK, AND
THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL
CARRY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ADD MORE FLOW AND SHEAR TO
THE ATMOSPHERE. VERY MINOR PERTURBATIONS MAY BRING A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS AROUND SUNDAY/MONDAY, BUT THE MODELS
DISAGREE WHETHER RIDGING OR TROUGHING WILL BE MORE ESTABLISHED TO
ALLOW MUCH. EITHER WAY, THE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRIER WITHOUT CONCERN FOR HUMIDITY CAUSING
DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS.
BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE ENSEMBLE OF
GUIDANCE SHOWS A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND A MORE FULL-LATITUDE
TROUGH SWINGING FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS.
BEING A BIT EARLY IN THE TRANSITIONAL TIME OF YEAR, CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS VERY LOW. GUIDANCE ENSEMBLES ARE
SETTLING IN ON A SOLUTION THAT BRINGS LESS RAINFALL THREAT
WEDNESDAY, BUT GREATER POTENTIAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM AS IT MARKS A CHANGE
FROM THE STAGNANT SUMMER PATTERN TO A POTENTIALLY MORE POTENT
COOL-SEASON PATTERN. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE RELATED TO EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY THAT
COULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT NCAR
AI-NWP GUIDANCE REMAIN BEARISH WITH ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
/OAJ/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES
DURING THIS 18Z FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT, AND RANGE BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 63 88 63 91 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 62 87 62 89 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 64 89 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 63 89 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 65 91 65 94 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 64 90 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 61 89 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/EC/19
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