092
FXUS64 KJAN 081056 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
556 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING HEAT STRESS LATE THIS
WEEK AND WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT AND IS REPLACED BY A STRENGTHENING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT APPEARS THE RECENT ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS, AND THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STAGNANT RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY
BRING A THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT HEAT INDICES/WBGT AND THE OVERALL HEAT RISK SHOULD PEAK FRI-
SUN WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW/MID 90S WHILE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO POOL OVER OUR AREA.
THERE WAS A NOTABLE TIME SHIFT IN THE HEAT INDEX FORECASTS TO
LATER DATES FOR THE PEAK HEAT THREATS (FROM "WED-FRI" TO "FRI-
SUN"), AND SO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON FORMAL MESSAGING GIVEN
THE INCONSISTENCIES. THIS TIME SHIFT IS CORRESPONDING WITH A
DRIER BL TREND EARLY IN THE WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH IN
THE NEW DEWPOINT FORECASTS BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION. IN ANY
CASE, ONCE THE PEAK HEAT THREATS BEGIN TO SHOW UP WITHIN THE DAY
4 FORECAST RANGE, THAT SHOULD BE A GOOD TIME TO ACT ON AND
MESSAGE FOR THEM IN EARNEST.
LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD, AS WE FINISH UP THE WEEKEND AND GO INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A SIGNIFICANT TREND WAS NOTED IN THE LONGER TERM
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR UNSEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLIES TO BE
SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. THIS HINTS AT AN ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN THAT WOULD BE RATHER ANOMALOUS FOR MID JUNE, SO
WOULD RECOMMEND MONITORING THIS TREND AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. /EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR LOW
STRATUS (AS LOW AS LIFR AT MEI, HBG AND PIB) AND SOME PATCHY
FOG/BR AT THOSE SITES THAT COULD OBSERVE LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH MORNING AND MIDDAY THIS MORNING
AREAWIDE (AFTER 08/15-17Z), WITH EASTERN AND SOUTHERNMOST TAF
SITES OF GTR, MEI, HBG AND PIB ON THE LATER SIDE (AFTER 08/18Z
MONDAY). SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AT TIMES. SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT, NEAR GTR
AFTER 08/19-23Z TODAY. /OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 87 73 92 73 / 10 10 10 0
MERIDIAN 88 72 92 72 / 20 10 0 0
VICKSBURG 88 73 92 75 / 10 10 10 0
HATTIESBURG 88 70 91 71 / 20 10 20 0
NATCHEZ 88 73 93 74 / 10 10 10 0
GREENVILLE 89 74 93 75 / 20 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 89 74 93 75 / 10 0 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/EC/OAJ
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