051
FXUS64 KJAN 090031 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
731 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG A CONCERN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THURSDAY
WHEN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
THROUGH MONDAY...
A MUCH QUIET AFTERNOON IS ONGOING TODAY, WITH SOME EARLIER DRIZZLE
AND LOW CLOUDS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS
THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE BAJA COLD CORE LOW REMAINING STALLED WHILE
STRONG TROUGH/JET ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. WE REMAIN CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MOST EFFICIENT ASCENT
OFF TO THE NORTH BUT DECREASED MOIST ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT
HAS BEEN PATCHES OF DRIZZLE AND EVEN WITH THE LOW STRATUS AROUND.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP CLOUDINESS AND LESS SEASONABLE WARMTH
AROUND TODAY (70F TO 80F. SOME CLOUDINESS WILL CLEAR INTO THIS
EVENING. FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR, KEEPING CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE WARMTH IN STORE OVERNIGHT,
UP TO 20F ABOVE (55F TO 60F NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND 61F TO 65F
TO THE SOUTH). SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT IN THE
PINE BELT AND HIGHWAY 84 TO INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR. ADDED A DENSE
FOG GRAPHIC TO THE HWO AND DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA AS
HREF DENSE FOG PROBS (30 TO 50 PERCENT) FIT FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AND NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONTAL ZONE OVER WET GROUND.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON MONDAY WILL BE STALLED BAJA LOW, DEEPENING RIDGE
OVER THE GULF AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL
COINCIDE WITH WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NORTH AND WARM ADVECTION,
LEADING TO SLIGHT UPTICK IN WARMTH AND HUMIDITY (SEASONABLY WARM
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S). STEEP LAPSE RATES (>7.5 DEG C
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 27C TO 29C VERTICAL TOTALS) COINCIDING
WITH STRONG MID TO DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR (30KTS TO
50KTS AT 0-3KM AND 0-6KM, RESPECTIVELY) WILL FAVOR SOUTHEAST
PROPAGATION OF SPLITTING AND ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS, WITH
SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. THE LOW-LEVEL
HELICITY IS GENERALLY FAIRLY LIGHT, SO THE MAIN CONCERN LOOK TO BE
LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BUT A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HAIL GROWTH REGION CAPE (-10C
TO -30C) IS FAIRLY SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL (800J/KG TO
1000J/KG). SPC MADE AN EXPANSION SOUTHEAST OF THE SLIGHT RISK,
WHICH LOOKS GOOD. TIMING IS MOSTLY ON TRACK, BUT SPED UP THE ONSET
IN THE NORTHWEST DELTA (WEST OF MS RIVER) TO NOON AND LASTING
THROUGH 9PM. /DC/
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST
AND SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WILL HELP END THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. THE INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL BE THE
RESULT OF INDUCED RIDGING ALOFT AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS EAST AND
OPENS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL COME IN PHASE
WITH THE SOUTHERN TROUGH AND BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA BY AFTERNOON THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. MOST OF OUR CWA HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED IN A "SLIGHT RISK (2/5)"
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST MOST
ZONES. THIS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS TO OCCUR ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS STILL PROGGED TO BE A CLEARING FRONT
MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING US ANOTHER INCH ON AVERAGE OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. BY
THURSDAY MORNING A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER OUR
REGION. THE HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND ONLY BE
IN THE 60S. FRIDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AREAWIDE
WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
A MIX OF MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD, HOWEVER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AFTER
06Z MONDAY AT ALL SITES. SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
18Z, THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF IMPACTS FROM THUNDER WAS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 61 79 65 83 / 0 70 30 0
MERIDIAN 60 79 63 84 / 10 60 30 0
VICKSBURG 60 79 65 83 / 0 70 20 0
HATTIESBURG 65 83 66 87 / 10 60 10 10
NATCHEZ 63 80 66 84 / 10 70 10 0
GREENVILLE 58 77 66 80 / 0 70 40 10
GREENWOOD 58 78 66 83 / 0 70 60 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ057-058-
061>066-072>074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/NF
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