226
FXUS64 KJAN 060920
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
320 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH RAIN ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA.
- THE NEXT WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT: THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER LEADING TO MUCH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT
DRIZZLE WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END TODAY. LOCAL RADARS STILL SHOWED
LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS OUR CWA AS A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUED ACROSS OUR REGION. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH THE VERY LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT DRIZZLE THIS MORNING.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1018MG HIGH CENTERED JUST WEST OF OUR
CWA THAT WILL TRACK EAST TODAY AND RESULT IN A LIGHT RETURN FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION THE 140KT JET STREAK THAT HAS BEEN OVER
OUR REGION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. TOGETHER THESE FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE MOIST FEED CONTRIBUTING TO THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT HAS BEEN MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR
CWA, TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING AND END TO OUR RAIN CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE RAIN ENDS, CLOUD COVER WILL THIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH AND
COMBINE WITH THE RETURN FLOW TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE THAN
15 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STILL TOP OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL AND IN THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE WARMER. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT
MODELS SUGGEST THE EXTENT OF THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
GREATER BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. /22/
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK:
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A GENERAL RIDGE PATTERN
OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. LOCALLY, THIS WILL
MEAN MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND REINFORCING COOL INTRUSIONS.
ALONG WITH THIS, THE TROUGHY NATURE OF THE PATTERN SUGGESTS SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST OF WHICH COULD
ARRIVE IN THE LATER PART OF SUNDAY, FEATURING A COOL OR COLD RAIN
WITH LIMITED HAZARDS LIKELY. FOLLOWING THE FIRST WAVE AND FRONT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND REINFORCING COLD
FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. UNCERTAINTY AT THE 7
DAY RANGE WITH AN ACTIVE JET STREAM SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SHIFTS
IN TIMING OR INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY, BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDER COMPARED TO RECENT ACTIVITY THAT HAS
OCCURRED WITH VERY LIMITED THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY. SOME LONGER
TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST DEWPOINTS COULD RISE INTO THE 60S F AHEAD OF
THAT FRONT WHICH WOULD BE PROBABLE TO SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WERE THAT TO BE THE CASE.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S F AND LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 30S TO 40S F MOST DAYS WITH A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR A
FREEZE ON A FEW OF THE CHILLER NIGHTS. FOR NOW, THE COLDEST NIGHT
APPEARS LIKELY TO BE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MOST AREAS SEE TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING WITH NORTHERNMOST AREAS DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S F.
/86/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM TAF SITES THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE IFR TO LIFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOWERED
CEILINGS/STRATUS AND SOME LOW VSBY/BR (MVFR/IFR). THERE COULD BE
SOME DENSE FOG AT TIMES, WITH IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES.
IMPROVEMENTS WILL OCCUR TO MVFR AFTER 06/14-18Z, LIFTING TO VFR
AFTER (HBG AND PIB MAY HOLD ON TO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH AROUND
16/21-22Z SATURDAY). WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL IFR STRATUS MAY LIFT BACK NORTH AFTER 07/02Z SUNDAY
INTO HBG AND PIB./DC/KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 58 43 63 41 / 10 0 30 30
MERIDIAN 56 39 63 42 / 10 0 20 50
VICKSBURG 59 44 61 39 / 0 0 40 20
HATTIESBURG 59 46 69 45 / 30 10 30 60
NATCHEZ 61 46 66 40 / 10 0 30 30
GREENVILLE 53 41 56 37 / 0 0 20 10
GREENWOOD 56 41 58 37 / 0 0 20 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/86/DC/KP
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