373
FXUS64 KJAN 112346
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
646 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, TORNADOES, AND
HAIL, ALONG WITH A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THIS EVENING.
- WIND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AND
A FREEZE IS LIKELY IN SOME AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
UPDATE FOR TODAY: GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE SCENARIO IS PLAYING OUT
AS EXPECTED WITH THE CONTINENTAL NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT
PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND HELPS DEVELOP A LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE AIRMASS
HAS DESTABILIZED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AIDED BY CAPPING
ALOFT, BUT MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/MIXING ARE ALSO LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR. ALSO, LOW
LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS ARE ORIENTED MOSTLY PARALLEL ALONG THE FRONT
WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOST PREVALENT TODAY, AND UNIMPRESSIVE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW IS NOT ENHANCING THE SEVERE THREAT
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CROSSING THE SABINE RIVER.
WITH ALL OF THAT SAID, IF THERE IS TO BE SEVERE WEATHER GOING INTO
THIS EVENING, IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH MORE N-S
ORIENTED LINEAR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MESOLOW TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL, MESSAGING
IS TRENDING DOWN WITH TIME AND BECOMING MORE SUPPRESSED TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. /EC/
ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE THREAT, AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1-2
INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN A COUPLE OF CORRIDORS: ONE FROM NORTH LA THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA AREA AS THE LINE OF STORMS IS INITIALLY SLOWER WHILE IT
REORGANIZES EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ANOTHER FROM SOUTH MS THROUGH
EAST MS WHERE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD
OF THE LINE AND MERGERS BETWEEN THIS CONVECTION AND THE LINE.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THESE
AREAS. ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FLATTER DELTA AREAS,
WHERE THERE COULD BE SCATTERED IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH
WEAKENED TREES.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: BEHIND THE FRONT, A BRIEF INTRUSION
OF COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE AIR WILL ARRIVE BY THURSDAY. A FEW
AREAS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL VECTORS RETURN BY FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S THIS WEEKEND.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY: A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER,
STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLE GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FOR NOW, MEAGER LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR LIKELY TO MITIGATE ANY SEVERE THREAT.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, A BIG COOL DOWN IS IN THE OFFING. /DL/
MONDAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT: LONG TERM GUIDANCE HAS GRADUALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THAT A FREEZE IS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS WE
GET CLOSER IN TIME, CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE FOR SUB-FREEZING
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN H850 TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO BE ~ -6 DEG C AND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA. A CAVEAT WILL BE THE DEGREE OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THAT COULD LIMIT OVERNIGHT COOLING SOME. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON MESSAGING OF WHAT COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT
AG-RELATED CONCERN. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
AS OF 2346Z, SOUTHERLY GUSTY WINDS HAVE NOW SHIFTED TO THE NORTH.
NORTHERLY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. CURRENT RADAR SCANS
SHOW A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY LEADING TO MULTIPLE TAF SITES SEEING MVFR CEILINGS.
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 09Z. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO VFR STATUS BY 13Z
THURSDAY. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 44 61 38 71 / 100 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 44 61 38 71 / 100 10 0 0
VICKSBURG 43 60 38 71 / 100 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 51 66 39 75 / 100 10 0 0
NATCHEZ 44 62 39 72 / 100 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 41 57 40 68 / 100 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 41 61 40 70 / 100 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/EC/CR
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