205
FXUS64 KJAN 171748 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1248 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES WITH CONDITIONS
WORSENING LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. FLOODING IMPACTS MAY LINGER.
RAINFALL DOES NOT END QUICKLY, BUT RATHER GRADUALLY TAPERS OVER
THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS.
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
PER THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR HAS FORMED
THIS MORNING NEAR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. TS ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TODAY AND MOVE INLAND OVER
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA BY TONIGHT. TS ARTHUR WILL THEN WEAKEN AS
IT CONTINUES MOVING INLAND AND TO THE NORTHEAST REACHING OUR
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN
THREATS TO OUR CWA FROM TS ARTHUR REMAIN UNCHANGED AND WILL REMAIN
THE FLOODING RAIN THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY, WE STILL HAVE A MOIST AIRMASS
ACROSS THE CWA THAT WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE RAIN
CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN CENTRAL AND SOUTH. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
TODAY...
REINFORCED SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION/RAINFALL TODAY, WHICH IS CERTAINLY GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE
WHO RECEIVED THE GREATEST AMOUNTS YESTERDAY. DURING THIS BREAK
HOWEVER, THERE MAY STILL BE ONGOING HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE TO
YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL, SO CREEKS AND SMALLER RIVERS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED. WE STILL ANTICIPATE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL LOW EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE
AREA TOMORROW. NOTE, THIS WILL BE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO WHAT HAS
ALREADY FALLEN THIS WEEK SO FAR. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THIS
FORECAST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SOUTHWARD TREND. AS SUCH,
"SIGNIFICANT" FLASH FLOOD THREAT WAS TRIMMED FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOME OF THE NORTHEAST, AND EXPANDED INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
TOTALS WITHIN THE "SIGNIFICANT" WERE ALSO ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD
TO REFLECT LATEST GUIDANCE.
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...
THE TROPICAL GULF LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL TOMORROW FOR OUR AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL CARRY WITH IT A
VERY MOIST AIRMASS POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 2.5 INCH PWAT. GIVEN
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, THIS ADDITIONAL ROUND WILL EXACERBATE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED GREAT AMOUNTS
YESTERDAY. WHILE TC DEVELOPMENT PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO BE 60%,
THE PRIMARY THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING REMAINS UNCHANGED, THEREFORE
HAZARD MESSAGING REMAINS CONSISTENT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW END RISK FOR SEVERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL LOW. DESPITE MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES, LOW LEVEL SHEAR
MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE LOW. ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEP MOISTURE,
EMBEDDED LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH THE
RISK REMAINS LOW. THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERNS WOULD LIKELY BE WIND
AND PERHAPS A WEAK TORNADO WITHIN THE TROPICAL REGIME.
THERE IS RENEWED CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY AS A BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL LOW STALLS
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF I-20. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT MORE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON
IT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH CLOSELY AND PROVIDE FUTURE UPDATES.
THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MAKE HEADWAY INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AND
LIKELY WASHES OUT THIS WEEKEND. AIRMASS MODIFICATION IS LIKELY SLIM,
BUT PWAT, WHILE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, WILL BE
MORE SEASONAL (1.5-1.7). THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME "BREAK" FROM THE
ONSLAUGHT OF MOISTURE, WITH COVERAGE OVERALL MORE SCATTERED THIS
WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOK TO
BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
REINFORCE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, BUT
INCREASED WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK MAY
MEAN THAT RELIEF MAY BE ON THE WAY. /SAS/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
THE MVFR CIGS WL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 19Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BY 02Z. AWAY FROM ANY TSRA VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 05Z BEFORE CIGS WL BEGIN LOWERING. IFR/LIFR CIGS WL
DEVELOP BY 10Z AND PREVAIL THROUGH 16Z BEFORE IMPROVING. NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA WL SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING AFTER
09Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 87 74 85 74 / 40 80 90 70
MERIDIAN 87 73 82 73 / 50 90 100 70
VICKSBURG 88 74 87 75 / 40 70 90 70
HATTIESBURG 86 74 84 76 / 50 90 100 60
NATCHEZ 87 74 88 77 / 50 90 90 50
GREENVILLE 90 75 89 74 / 20 20 50 70
GREENWOOD 91 75 88 74 / 20 40 70 80
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MSZ040>066-072>074.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LAZ009-015-016-023>026.
AR...NONE.
22/SAS20/22
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