350
FXUS64 KJAN 151750 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1150 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF COLD WEATHER WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
- MONITORING THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
REST OF TODAY...
A QUIET AND CHILLY AFTERNOON IS ON TAP ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SURFACE COLD ADVECTION HAS LOCKED IN DRY
AIR AND SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS
BUT OVERALL THIS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. MIXING WILL BE EFFICIENT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLY COLD, SOME 8F TO 12F BELOW (42F TO 50F). UPDATES WERE
SHIPPED OUT EARLIER. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT FEATURES A COLD EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN, A SERIES OF POLAR
STREAM TROUGHS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN A
FEW COLD AIR EVENTS AND PERHAPS A WINTER WEATHER THREAT OR TWO AS
DESCRIBED BELOW.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: BY FAR, THE MOST STRAIGHT-FORWARD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS IN THE NEAR TERM. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY, ALBEIT SUNNY DAY, FOR THE
FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE 30S AND 40S
AMID BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
THIS EVENING, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR
CENTRAL/EASTERN MS, WITH WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTING QUICKLY
OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WIND BEGINNING TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT TROUGH, WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR BEGIN TO
RISE LATER TONIGHT, AND THEN RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND: WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR OUR AREA TO GET COLD
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES GREATLY WHEN IT COMES
TO A MINOR POLAR STREAM TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND RAPIDLY APPROACH THE LOWER MS VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
WEST/SOUTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN BACKING OF THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS, THERE HAS BEEN
AN UPTICK IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES
GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS BEING IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW.
MOST GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS AS OF NOW, AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN/SNOW
DEVELOPMENT, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE TRENDS WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, AND SEE HOW THIS MAY MANIFEST IN OTHER
NWP GUIDANCE. IN TERMS OF MESSAGING, GIVEN THAT THE MENTION OF
SNOW THIS WEEKEND IS RAMPANT IN THE SOCIAL MEDIA WORLD, FEEL IT IS
WISE TO HAVE SOME SORT OF MESSAGING TO ENSURE MS RESIDENTS
UNDERSTAND THAT THE LOW END SNOW CHANCES AND MARGINALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WOULD CORRELATE WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. WE'LL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR GUIDANCE TRENDS AND ADJUST MESSAGING FROM THERE AS
NEEDED.
NEXT WEEK: FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GREATER NOW FOR CONTINUED COLD
WEATHER AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT AS OF NOW, WE ARE NOT SEEING
DANGEROUS LEVELS OF COLD MATERIALIZE IN THE EXPLICIT FORECAST.
WE'LL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER SNEAKY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT COULD INTERACT WITH THE COLD AIR TO BRING ADDITIONAL
WINTER WEATHER THREATS, BUT THERE ARE NO SPECIFIC INDICATIONS AS
OF NOW. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME PERIODS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) ARE POSSIBLE AT
GLH AND GWO AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT GTR, JAN AND HKS BUT
LOWERED CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION IN 18Z TAF CYCLE. OTHERWISE,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY (SUSTAINED UP TO
15MPH AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25MPH) AFTER 16/15Z FRIDAY. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 46 31 64 37 / 0 0 0 30
MERIDIAN 46 27 62 36 / 0 0 0 50
VICKSBURG 48 33 65 35 / 0 0 0 20
HATTIESBURG 50 31 67 42 / 0 0 0 50
NATCHEZ 49 34 68 37 / 0 0 0 30
GREENVILLE 45 33 59 34 / 0 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 44 31 61 33 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/EC/DC
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