337
FXUS64 KJAN 140131 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
831 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- DRY WEATHER WITH MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A SIGNIFICANT DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 819 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
IN THE NEAR-TERM, UPDATED FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. WITH DEEP MIXING AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING MORE
OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW, LEANED ON 10TH PERCENTILE NBM DEW
POINTS AND OTHER RELIABLY DRIER GUIDANCE FOR THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH EVENING HOURS. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST/EAST
MISSISSIPPI TODAY REPORTED A DEW POINT BELOW 50 DEGRES, AND THE
SAME IS EXPECTED ACROSS MORE CENTRAL MS ZONES TOMORROW. WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S AGAIN, RESULTING RH VALUES ACROSS MOST
OF OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE 20-30% RANGE. IN COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL FORESTRY AND LAND MANAGEMENT ASSESSMENT VEGETATION AND DEAD
FUELS, EVEN WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH ARE CONCERNING FOR FIRE
SPREAD AT THIS TIME. OUR FIRE DANGER GRAPHIC HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
"ELEVATED" FIRE DANGER MESSAGING FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE ARRIVAL OF A DRY COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUED BREEZY
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE OUR MAIN FOCUS HEADING INTO LATE WEEK.
WITH COOL AND DRY AUTUMN NIGHTS, RECREATIONAL FIRES BECOME MORE
COMMON. IT'S IMPORTANT TO HEED ANY LOCAL BURN BANS AND AVOID
BURNING NEAR DRY VEGETATION, AS FALLEN LEAVES AND DROUGHT
STRESSED GRASS AND TREES CAN EASILY CATCH FIRE IF SPARKS OR
EMBERS SPREAD. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED DRY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS. AFTERNOON
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT GRADIENT IN THE CU FIELD DUE TO
GREATER MOISTURE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SOME OF THE CU MAY
RESULT IN A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OVER OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED. AFTERNOON
SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A STOUT
595DAM HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST TEXAS COAST. AFTERNOON
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1018MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
ALABAMA COAST. EACH OF THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT SHIFT EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WEDNESDAY. OUR
AIRMASS WILL BECOME DRIER OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE WHOLE
CWA AGAIN. /22/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MEAN RIDGE
AROUND 592-594DM BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST. SKY COVER WILL BE
GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALL
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE.
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN QUIET AND DRY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN TO THE SOUTH UNDER
10 KNOTS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE CLEAR ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. A FEW SITES
COULD SEE NEW RECORD TEMPERATURES BEING SET/TIED ESPECIALLY IF
WARMER GUIDANCE OVER PERFORMS. REGARDING FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR THE
REST OF THIS WEEK, EVEN THOUGH WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIGHT, THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH MIXING AND DROP IN AFTERNOON HUMIDITY INTO CRITICAL
LEVELS. DEEP MIXING WILL CAUSE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DIP (25
TO 35 PERCENT RANGE) ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FIRE WX GRAPHIC AND A "LIMITED" RISK
FOR FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUED TO BE ADVERTISED FOR OUR WHOLE AREA.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONG TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STOUT DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. AT THE VERY LEAST, COOL DOWN STILL REMAINS
LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THAT MORNING
AND LOWS THAT NIGHT UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 (48-
52F) TO MID TO UPPER 50S (53-57F) TO THE SOUTH. SEASONABLE AND
PLEASANT FALL TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD AREAWIDE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED DROUGHT STRESSED VEGETATION AND
LONGSTANDING LIMITED RAINFALL WILL HELP INCREASE FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS. LONG TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO A 1035-1045MB SFC HIGH
BUILDING EAST OUT OF THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A 6-8MB PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULT IN
GUSTY GRADIENT WIND/WIND GUSTS REACHING 30-35 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS
OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
WIND GRAPHIC FOR FRIDAY AND A "LIMITED" THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IS STILL HIGHLIGHTING A RELATIVELY RARE (FOR OUR
AREA) MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR FIRE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH THE
EXPECTED DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE OUR
MESSAGING FOR FIRE DANGER LOCALLY, BUT DO EXPECT MORE "ELEVATED"
WORDING FOR FRIDAY'S FIRE DANGER AFTER SEVERAL LOWER END/"LIMITED"
DAYS THIS WEEK. LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS (POPS AROUND 15%)
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST MS, SOUTHWEST MS, AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA HEADING INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
/CR/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 819 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
A PERIOD OF MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KHEZ, KPIB, AND
KHBG FROM APPROX 10Z-14Z WEDNESDAY DUE TO FG AND LOW STRATUS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AT THE TAF SITES. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 64 93 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 60 93 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 65 93 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 58 93 62 92 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 64 93 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 71 93 66 93 / 0 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 68 94 65 94 / 0 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/CR/NF
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