211  
FXUS64 KJAN 231730  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
1130 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z TAF DISCUSSION:  
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES CURRENTLY BUT WILL BEGIN  
TO VARY IN CATEGORY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MOISTURE AND  
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. VCSH/-SHRA WILL EFFECT TAF SITES  
ACROSS THE DELTA REGION AROUND 03Z. AS THE RAIN BECOMES MORE  
WIDESPREAD AND INCREASING FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z, CEILINGS WILL  
BEGIN TO LOWER AT GLH THEN EVENTUALLY ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE MVFR  
CONDITIONS STARTING AROUND 13Z./JNE/  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE PREVAILING IN THE FAR NORTH EAST OF THE  
CWA. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE DAY  
PROGRESSES. THOUGH THIS MORNING WE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY  
DRY, A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE  
NORTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE  
WEST AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS EVENING APPROACHES. HIGHS  
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO LOW 60S IN  
THE SOUTH./JNE/  
 
PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW:  
 
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO  
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW,  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. CLOUDS WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING  
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE PLANES. HIGHS TODAY  
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTH TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTH.  
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING,  
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WEST. PWATS  
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY  
SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. LOWS  
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. /15/  
 
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: COME MONDAY MORNING A CLOSED LOW AND  
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CLOSED  
LOW WILL OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK  
NORTHEAST AS WELL AND DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES BY  
MONDAY EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG  
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, LOWER 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS LOOK TO REMAIN  
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND MLCAPE VALUES LOOK  
TO REMAIN LESS THAN 200J/KG LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM  
CONCERNS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE A HALF INCH  
OR LESS SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AS WELL. THE COLD  
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA PRIOR TO SUNRISE  
TUESDAY AND THE RAIN WILL END FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE  
OF THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST  
OF OUR CWA TUESDAY, OUR WINDS ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BECOME  
SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING  
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF A  
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE  
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING  
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF  
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS LOW WILL SWING ACROSS OUR  
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE  
TRENDED DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE OVER OR CWA BUT LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT  
RAIN WILL BE CARRIED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH THE FIRST  
SHORTWAVE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION  
THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON  
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT IN OUR NORTHERN  
MOST ZONES WHERE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME  
LIGHT RAIN BEFORE SHIFTING EAST SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION, COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL  
RESULT BY WEDNESDAY AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. /22/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 62 50 65 48 / 7 20 98 40  
MERIDIAN 62 49 65 52 / 3 20 96 73  
VICKSBURG 62 52 67 47 / 11 24 94 22  
HATTIESBURG 65 50 69 54 / 1 18 94 84  
NATCHEZ 63 53 66 47 / 5 19 96 34  
GREENVILLE 57 50 65 45 / 43 78 87 11  
GREENWOOD 58 50 63 46 / 12 72 96 30  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
JNE  
 
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