465
FXUS64 KJAN 311144 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
544 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE NEW
YEAR.
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT: THE YEAR WILL END ON A DRY NOTE WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1028MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST TEXAS COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL HELP THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY MORNING. OUR DRY AIRMASS WITH A PWAT LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH THIS MORNING WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY MOISTEN TO A
PWAT NEAR A HALF INCH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AFTER A MUCH COLDER
THAN NORMAL START THIS MORNING IN THE 20S, NEAR FULL INSOLATION AND
A LIGHTER SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT
IN THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST. UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND TONIGHT, A DECENT AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM
OUT FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 30S IN THE
SOUTHWEST. /22/
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY: THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE
OVERALL FORECAST. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED HEADING INTO
NEW YEARS DAY (THURSDAY) WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS PEAKING INTO THE UPPER
30S BY MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF OUR CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SFC RIDGING WILL
HELP KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A QUICK LITTLE NOTE REGARDING FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR THURSDAY. RHS ARE
STILL FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 30-40% ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, WELL
ABOVE ANY NOTABLE THRESHOLD, AND WIND SPEEDS WILL BE TOO LOW.
NEVERTHELESS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO THURSDAY, GIVEN THAT WE HAVEN'T HAD ANY DECENT RAIN IN A WHILE.
SKY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH
QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL PEAK INTO THE 60S. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY EVENING/THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP INTO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.
GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
THAT SYSTEM, BUT THE CURRENT TIMING DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR ANY
SEVERE THREAT. WITH THAT IN MIND, A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LONG TERM GUIDANCE FROM BOTH
THE GFS AND THE EURO CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OUT
OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES TO
FINISH OFF THE WEEKEND. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
LOOKING AHEAD INTO TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PEAKING INTO THE 60S
AREAWIDE. RAIN CHANCES WILL MAKE A RETURN TO THE AREA HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH POPS AROUND 15-20%. /CR/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 58 36 65 48 / 0 0 0 10
MERIDIAN 57 33 64 44 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 59 36 66 49 / 0 0 0 10
HATTIESBURG 60 36 68 46 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 60 37 68 50 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 56 36 63 49 / 0 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 56 34 63 48 / 0 0 0 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/CR/22
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