128
FXUS64 KJAN 221134
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
534 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FOLLOW A COLD FRONT TODAY.
- WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS RAISE SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR
WILDFIRES TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER PINE BELT REGION.
- COLDER DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL BELOW FREEZING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
THROUGH THIS WEEK...
TODAY: 1040MB TO 1050MB SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LOCKING IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND DRY FIRST HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE
DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM/TROUGH EAST OF THE PLAINS WHILE RIDGING OUT
WEST. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
LOW AS ONE TENTH TO TWO TENTHS). FAVORABLE MIXING AND GUSTY WINDS (4-
6MB PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 40-50KT FLOW AT 850MB/30-35KT FLOW AT
925MB) COULD CAUSE SOME WEAK LIMBS AND TREES TO COME DOWN. IN
ADDITION, SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN TODAY DUE TO LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY, SOME AREAS MISSING RAIN AND INCREASED GRADIENT
WINDS. BASED ON THAT AND PREVIOUS COORDINATION, EXPANDED THE RED
FLAG WARNING WESTWARD ALONG HIGHWAY 84 TO INCLUDE ADAMS, FRANKLIN,
JEFFERSON, LAWRENCE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI AND
CATAHOULA AND CONCORDIA PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. WILDFIRES COULD
SPREAD RAPIDLY AND OPEN BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED IN THESE
AREAS, WHILE OPEN BURNING IS DISCOURAGED TO THE NORTH AS FIRES ARE
MORE LIKELY TO ESCAPE CONTROL. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOLER, SOME
5F TO 10F BELOW (48F TO 52F NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND 53F TO 58F TO
THE SOUTH).
THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND (SATURDAY): START OF THE WORK WEEK
WILL CONSIST OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SAG SOUTHWARD, WITH SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CONSIST OF SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS, BELOW FREEZING (MID TO UPPER 20S) MONDAY MORNING AND
WELL INTO THE 20S (LOW TO MID 20S) TUESDAY MORNING. THE GROWING
SEASON HAS YET TO BEGIN IN EARNEST SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FORMAL
MESSAGING, BUT FOLKS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WINTER IS NOT OVER YET
FOLLOWING A STRING OF HIGHLY ANOMALOUS WARMTH. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER STOUT SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES, DRIVING A
FRONT AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SOME ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY. RAIN TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A QUARTER
TO AROUND HALF INCH. WITH A SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION PRECEDING
ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGHS BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS SEASONABLY WARM.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM DUE TO CLOUDS, SOME
RAIN COVERAGE AND GUSTY WINDS KEEPING LOWS UP BEFORE DRY AND
TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. /DC/EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
NORTH/NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15 - 20 KNOTS, GUSTING AT TIMES AROUND 30
KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HKS BETWEEN 05Z-
08Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY 23Z MONDAY. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 52 28 47 25 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 53 28 47 23 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 54 29 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 57 31 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 55 31 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 50 28 44 26 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 50 26 44 24 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ059>066-072>074.
LA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ024-026.
AR...NONE.
DC/EC/CR
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