470
FXUS64 KJAN 021847
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1247 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE WARMTH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- AFTER A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER, CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SOME
STORMS RETURN LATE THIS WEEK.
- WET AND STORMY PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND, WITH CONTINUED SIGNALS OF
MORE IMPACTFUL CONVECTIVE PERIOD AND POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
REST OF TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: A QUIET AND MODERATING AFTERNOON IS ON
TAP ACROSS THE REGION. THE REGION REMAINS UNDER DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH 850MB RIDGE TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS
HELPING AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE, AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWS). INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL LIMIT FIRE
DANGER TODAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM, SOME 12F TO 18F
ABOVE (78F TO 82F), WITH SEASONABLY WARM LOWS BOTH TONIGHT, SOME
8F TO 12F ABOVE, AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT, SOME 15F TO 20F
ABOVE (55F TO 60F TONIGHT). FOG LOOKS TO BE THE BIGGER CONCERN.
HREF AND REFS INDICATE ADVECTION FOG CONCERNS, WITH LOW END DENSE
FOG PROBS AND SOME LONGER DURATION OF HIGHER DENSE PROBS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55. ADDED AN HWO
DENSE FOG GRAPHIC FOR ELEVATED IN THE SOUTHEAST AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE AND LIMITED SOUTHEAST OF THE DELTA AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
THIS AREA COULD ADVECT AND BE MORE TRANSIENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20. FOR NOW, PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
MS WHILE AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST MS. HOLDING OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW BASED ON
THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE ADVECTION FOG REGIME.
TUESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND: UPPER PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE GULF WHILE QUASI ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH. THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING HEAT AND SOME GRADUAL UPTICK IN HUMIDITY INTO
THE MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WILL BE
THE STORY, AS THEY CREEP UP, HIGHS SOME 12F TO 20F ABOVE (UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S EARLY WEEK WHILE INTO THE MID 80S BY LATE WEEK)
WHILE LOWS SOME 15F TO 25F ABOVE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (MID 50S
EARLY WEEK BEFORE LOW TO MID 60S INTO LATE WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND). RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH A
RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE (ONE INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF) INTO
LATE WEEK AROUND THURSDAY TO FRIDAY. SOME RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
DEFLECT OFF TO THE NORTH, WITH RECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IN
BLENDED GUIDANCE A LITTLE MORE REASONABLE (35 TO 55 PERCENT).
HOWEVER, THE PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED INTO LATE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING CUTOFF COLD CORE LOW OVER
THE BAJA PENINSULA AND STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO GULF TO CARIBBEAN SEA. AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGS
INTO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA, THIS WILL DRIVE A FRONT DOWN INTO THE
AREA NEXT WEEKEND THAT WILL BRING INCREASED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE,
DEEPER MOIST ADVECTION OF PWS NEAR AN INCH AND A HALF AND
INCREASING LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL
STORMY AND WET NEXT WEEKEND AND THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THERE REMAINS
SPREAD IN THE IN THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION, WITH GFS CONTINUING TO
FAVOR A WESTWARD RETROGRADING CUTOFF LOW AND LESS PHASED WITH JET
ENERGY TO THE NORTH WHILE EURO AND CANADIAN NOW DO SHOW A CUTOFF
LOW BUT NOT AS FAR WEST OVER THE PACIFIC, WHICH WOULD BE A FASTER
EJECTION AND FASTER SOLUTION NEXT WEEK. MACHINE LEARNING, AI AND
CIPS HISTORICAL ANALOG GUIDANCE SUITE STILL SUPPORT A SETUP FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY POSITION OF CUTOFF LOW AND STRONG
SOUTHEAST RIDGE BRING PAUSE, ESPECIALLY ON THE TIMING. STAY TUNED
AS THE PATTERN COMES INTO AGREEMENT AND FINE DETAILS ARE IRONED
OUT, WITH ANY STRONG TO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLE AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /DC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WILL FAVOR ADVECTION FOG (BR AND FG) AND LOW STRATUS (IFR TO
LIFR) OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS WILL BE
BETWEEN AROUND 03/06-10Z TUESDAY IN THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR,
03/08-13Z IN THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AND 03/12-15Z IN THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. AREAS IN CENTRAL, EAST AND SOUTHEAST TAF
SITES (JAN, HKS, MEI, PIB AND HBG) HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
OF REACHING LIFR STRATUS AND/OR DENSE FOG (FG). EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE AFTER 03/15-17Z, WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE
TUESDAY. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 58 80 62 82 / 0 0 0 10
MERIDIAN 55 80 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 57 81 63 81 / 0 0 0 20
HATTIESBURG 58 82 60 84 / 0 0 0 10
NATCHEZ 58 82 64 81 / 0 0 0 30
GREENVILLE 56 79 62 79 / 0 0 0 20
GREENWOOD 58 81 63 82 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC
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