980
FXUS64 KJAN 190007 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
607 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
- MILDER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
TONIGHT...
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE 1027MB SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. MEAN POLAR TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH COLD AND DRY PATTERN LOCKED IN (PRECIPITABLE WATER
LESS THAN QUARTER INCH). AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TO NORTHWESTERLY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A REINFORCING FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER
STOUT SURFACE HIGH PROGGED TO MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENCE FORECAST (SEASONABLY COLD
SUBFREEZING LOWS OF 22F TO 29F). FROST IS LIKELY AGAIN OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY. UPDATES ARE OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: A BROAD POLAR TROUGH ANCHORED OVER
EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP OUR CWA LOCKED INTO A COLD AND DRY PATTERN
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REINFORCE BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER OR PRECIP
CHANCES. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY ADDING A WIND
CHILL AT TIMES, HOWEVER WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND: MIDWEEK WILL BRING A SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN AS POLAR FLOW LIFTS NORTH, ALLOWING WARM AIR TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION. THIS TRANSITION WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE
FORECAST ALONG WITH A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE
DECENT WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. BY THE WEEKEND, MODEL CONSENSUS DECREASES AS MODELS
VARY ON TIMING OF A STRONG 1045 MB POLAR HIGH SURGING SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA THROUGH THE MIDWEST. WHEN THE POLAR AIR DOES MAKE ITS WAY TO
OUR AREA ZONAL FLOW WILL HELP SET UP A DISTINCT BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE AREA, HELPING TO MAINTAIN A ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
FORECAST REFINEMENTS ARE LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK./KP/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHERLY
WINDS (SUSTAINED UP TO 10MPH; GUSTS UP TO 15MPH) LIGHTEN THIS
EVENING AND THEN SHIFT NORTHERLY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. FROST IS
LIKELY AGAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 26 52 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 26 52 23 50 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 26 52 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 28 57 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 28 56 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 28 44 24 48 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 25 46 23 50 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/KP/DC
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