577
FXUS64 KJAN 011051 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
551 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL EXPAND FROM THE GULF COAST TODAY TO INCLUDE
MORE OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD OFF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA GULF COAST SHOULD
CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWEST, MAKING LANDFALL OVER TEXAS BY THIS EVENING.
NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR FORECAST AREA. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MID-SOUTH IS AT NEARLY MAX STRENGTH FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER. EASTERLY FLOW AROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIMETER WILL
BRING DISTURBANCES AND RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE GULF COAST, WITH RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO OUR AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW. THURSDAY, AN EASTERLY DISTURBANCE LIFTING INTO OUR AREA
WILL WEAKEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND ARRIVE WITH A SURGE OF
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD FARTHER NORTH
INTO OUR AREA THEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AND AMPLIFY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND ALONG THE ROCKIES. EVENTUALLY THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND STRENGTHENING HEAT FROM THE RIDGE.
APART FROM INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK, HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL STILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING
INTO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. TODAY
THERE'S ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SUPPORT A HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS MOST
AREAS EXCEPT EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD. /NF/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST.
SCATTERED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES, FEW THROUGH CENTRAL, AND SKC ALONG OUR NORTHERN REACHES. A
THIN LAYER OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS A POSSIBILITY IN THE EARLY
MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS, RAPIDLY BURNING
OFF WITH SUNRISE./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 97 74 97 73 / 0 0 10 10
MERIDIAN 97 74 98 74 / 0 0 10 0
VICKSBURG 96 74 95 74 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 95 73 96 73 / 10 0 30 10
NATCHEZ 96 74 96 73 / 10 0 10 10
GREENVILLE 98 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 98 75 98 75 / 0 0 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-
059>064-072.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ074-075.
NF/NF/OAJ
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