618
FXUS64 KJAN 091549 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
949 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES ONGOING THIS MORNING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE
TODAY.
- SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL, REMAIN A CONCERN THIS MORNING
INTO TONIGHT.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. LIKELY FROST AND FREEZE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK BEFORE COLD AND
MORE SEASONABLY WINTER PATTERN EMERGES IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 943 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
LOCAL RADARS SHOWED THE MOST INTENSE STORMS AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT LIGHTER SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUED ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL ZONES. THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AND THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL BUT, REDEVELOPMENT IS STILL EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...
TODAY: WATER VAPOR/RAP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATE LEAD WAVE
MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES, HELPING STRONG SURFACE
CYCLONE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM (990MB SURFACE LOW) TO TAKE SHAPE. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN SOUTHEAST SURFACE HIGH AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS IS LEADING TO SOME GUSTY POTENTIAL AT TIMES
AND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30MPH RANGE. MORNING MESOANALYSIS INDICATE UP
TO 55KTS IN THE 0-3KM AND 0-6KM LAYERS AND MLCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG.
LOW LEVEL THETA E CONVERGENCE IS DRIVING SOME SHOWER INITIATION IN
THE DELTA, WITH SOME UPSCALE GROWTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 4AM. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION, EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AND MEAN
BULK SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAZARDS
LOOK TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AND PERSIST INTO THE DAY.
SOUTHERN SPOKE/COLD CORE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW.
THIS WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WIDESPREAD
ASCENT AND STORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SUFFICIENT JUXTAPOSITION OF THERMO AND KINEMATICS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS, WITH CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS
SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60MPH, A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
AND SOME SMALL HAIL. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) CONTINUE TO
HIT ON LESS COVERAGE AND CONVERGENCE IN THE DELTA AND MORE IN
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR HIGHER COVERAGE AND PEAK STORM THREAT
SOUTHEAST OF THE DELTA. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THE ONGOING
AXIS OF SHOWERS WILL CONGEAL INTO STORMS IN THE I-55 CORRIDOR AROUND
DAYBREAK, SPREAD EAST AND THEN MOST CONFLUENCE TRENDING SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THETA E AXIS ON THE WARM SIDE.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE PEAK TIMES BEGINNING IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND
PERSISTING THROUGH 10PM TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL IN
THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL FEATURES AND
BOWING SEGMENTS (TORNADO POTENTIAL MAXIMIZED WHEN EAST-NORTHEAST
COLD POOL SURGES OCCUR WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LINE ORTHOGONAL SHEAR).
DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WILL DRIVE PWS JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AND 850MB
THETA E NEAR 330K. HEAVY RAIN WILL LOCK IN ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR, WITH CONFLUENCE ZONES AND TRAINING IN AND SOUTH INTO THE
HIGHER THETA E AREAS SOUTH OF THE COLD POOL. FURTHER NORTH OF INTO
THE DELTA, THESE AREAS MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH RAINFALL. 00 HREF PROBS
GREATER THAN 5 INCHES (40 TO 50 PERCENT) EXTEND AS FAR WEST OF
NATCHEZ AND INTO THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR, WITH THE BULLSEYE IN
THE PINE BELT. THE ELEVATED IN HWO GRAPHIC FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
FLOOD WATCH WAS EARLIER EXTENDED WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WPC
UPGRADED A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF I-20 IN THE HWY 84 TO I-59 CORRIDOR
TO A MODERATE RISK. THE ENTIRE ELEVATED RISK AREA HAS A RISK OF 2 TO
4 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES (WORST CASE IN EXCESS OF 7 TO 8
INCHES). LOCAL CONFLUENCE ZONES AND ORIENTATION WILL BE HARD TO PIN
DOWN THESE MESOSCALE DETAILS AND CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHER END OF THE
SPECTRUM IS IN QUESTION AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER, HREF LOCALIZED PROB
MATCH MEAN AND MAXIMUM QPF VALUES SUPPORT POTENTIAL WORST CASE
VALUES. THIS WILL LIKELY BE RATE DRIVEN FLOODING AND MAY TAKE A FEW
ROUNDS FOR ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS,
EXCEPT IN RUNOFF EFFICIENT URBAN AREAS.
EXPECT MOST SEVERE STORMS WIND DOWN BY 10PM BUT SOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR THROUGH NEAR DAYBREAK OR THE LATEST MID MORNING SATURDAY.
THIS WEEKEND INTO LATE NEXT WEEK (SATURDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY):
RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY MOVE THROUGH BY MIDDAY AND OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY USHERING IN COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH (I.E.~1035MB) WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD,
STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO ARKLATEX TO MID SOUTH REGION
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LIKELY FREEZE INTO THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. NBM PROBABILITIES EXCEED POTENTIAL
FOR A DECENT FREEZE INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK (60 TO 95 PERCENT BELOW
FREEZING AND 40 TO 90 PERCENT BELOW 28F). THIS SEASONABLY COOL
PATTERN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SOME MODERATION
BUILD INTO THE MID NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED AND COLD. STAY TUNED AS WINTER LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN NEAR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH WINTRY WEATHER POSSIBILITIES BEING
MONITORED IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. /DC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL RESULT IN LOWER AND VARIABLE FLYING
CONDITIONS TODAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
06Z SAT. AFTER 06Z IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 60 67 38 / 80 90 80 0
MERIDIAN 74 61 70 38 / 90 90 80 0
VICKSBURG 75 58 65 37 / 80 90 60 0
HATTIESBURG 77 65 75 43 / 90 90 80 10
NATCHEZ 76 59 67 39 / 90 90 60 0
GREENVILLE 71 56 60 37 / 60 100 30 0
GREENWOOD 73 57 63 36 / 60 100 60 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ038-039-043>046-048>066-
072>074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/DC/22
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