360
FXUS64 KJAN 101133 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
633 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, TORNADOES, AND
LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
BRIEF INTRUSION OF COLDER AIR IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ON THURSDAY.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
WITH A MORE NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
FREEZE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THROUGH WEDNESDAY: WE'RE IN A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN TWO STORM
SYSTEMS. THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING, THOUGH FOG IS LESS PROLIFIC SO FAR THIS
MORNING. LOW CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE DAY, THOUGH IT
IS EXPECTED TO ERODE IN TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 80S
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, A POTENT TROUGH, SPLIT BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND
MORE OF A SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM, WILL ORGANIZE
OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS, SHIFTING TOWARD OUR AREA BY LATER
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS, WE CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY. BY THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WITH STORMS
APPROACHING OUR SOUTHEAST AR/NORTHEAST LA AREA DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A MORE SW-TO-NE ORIENTED AREA
OF CONVECTION, WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR LARGELY BOUNDARY-PARALLEL DEEP
SHEAR AND A MORE MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT. HOWEVER, THERE IS
GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBILITIES THAT COULD RESULT IN A HIGHER
IMPACT EVENT. IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LINE, AS DEPICTED IN RECENT RRFS RUNS AND
AS HINTED AT IN RECENT EURO RUNS, THESE STORMS WOULD HAVE GREATER
SEVERE POTENTIAL, INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. ALSO, IF A
SURGE IN THE LINE OF STORMS RESULTS IN IT BEING ORIENTED MORE
NORTH/SOUTH AS SUGGESTED IN THE 06Z HRRR, WE MAY SEE MORE DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL AND LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH
FOR QLCS TORNADOES. OTHER POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES, PARTICULARLY IN THE MID LEVELS,
AND LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE FORECAST LOW LEVEL HELICITY, THOUGH THIS
CAN BE OVERCOME IN MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. THERE IS ALSO
A LINGERING QUESTION OF HOW THE INFLUENCE OF A MESOSCALE LOW
MIGHT DISRUPT THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. ALL OF THIS TO SAY, THERE
IS STILL A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES FOR TOMORROW'S SEVERE
THREAT, AND MUCH OF IT WILL BE DETERMINED IN THE MESOSCALE REALM.
ONE MORE POSSIBLE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS STRONG NON-THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS DEPICTED ON THE BACK EDGE OF STORMS IN RECENT HRRR
RUNS. WE'LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON HOW ALL OF THESE THREATS
EVOLVE. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: BEHIND THE FRONT, A BRIEF INTRUSION OF
COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE AIR WILL ARRIVE BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALREADY BEGIN SHIFTING EAST OF OUR AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL VECTORS RETURNING BY FRIDAY
AND HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S DURING THE
WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIME FRAME. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH A
FEW STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN SUFFICIENTLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A BIGGER COOL DOWN IS IN THE OFFING,
WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S POSSIBLE AND A FREEZE WITHIN THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME AREAS MONDAY NIGHT. /DL/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 19Z BEFORE IMPROVING. LIFR
CIGS WL BE PSBL IN THE EAST AND SE 12-14Z. A GUSTY S-SW WIND
18-20KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST TAF SITE THIS AFTN BEFORE
SUBSIDING BY 00Z WED. MVFR CIGS WL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AND LOWER TO
IFR BY 10Z IN THE SE. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 84 67 83 48 / 10 0 40 100
MERIDIAN 85 65 83 48 / 10 10 30 100
VICKSBURG 83 67 84 47 / 10 0 60 90
HATTIESBURG 87 67 87 57 / 10 0 30 100
NATCHEZ 85 68 84 49 / 10 0 50 90
GREENVILLE 80 67 80 46 / 20 10 80 90
GREENWOOD 84 67 83 46 / 10 10 70 100
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/DL/22
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