958
FXUS64 KJAN 172353
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
653 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK, WITH
INCREASING HEAT STRESS A CONCERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...ONE WORD BASICALLY SUMS UP THE
MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, "HOT". THIS IS DUE TO THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AND STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT'S BUILT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FROM THE WEST, ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER
THE REGION. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S EACH DAY, WITH SOME LOCALES POTENTIALLY SEEING HIGHS AT OR JUST
ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK DURING THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME NEXT
WEEK, COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY HOVERING IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 70S, AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-110F RANGE WILL
BE THE NORM. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE DURING THAT
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD, WHEN INDICES CURRENTLY LOOK
TO BE MORE AROUND 110F ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
I'LL MAINTAIN THE "ELEVATED RISK" FOR DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS IN THE
HWO INTO NEXT WEEK. A "HEAT ADVISORY" WILL ALSO BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT DURING THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THAT COULD COME AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY, BUT IT'LL DEFINITELY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING SAID, BASED ON OBSERVED
DATA THE PAST COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS, THE NBM HAS BEEN TOO HOT WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY SOME 2-4 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES ACROSS THE CWA.
I BELIEVE THIS HAS TO DO WITH SOME REMAINING SOIL MOISTURE FROM
RECENT RAINS, ALONG WITH VERY GREEN VEGETATION ACROSS THE REGION. AS
A RESULT, I'VE LOWERED HIGHS AND GONE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR
SATURDAY, WHICH YIELDS VALUES STAYING IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 90S.
THIS CURRENTLY KEEPS US UNDER "HEAT ADVISORY" CRITERIA FOR AT LEAST
THE START OF THIS WEEKEND.
AS FAR AS CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE CONCERNED, THEY'LL BE FEW AND
FAR BETWEEN. I DO AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT WITH THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BEING ON THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH, AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTH TO NORTH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD WHERE ATTENTION
NEEDS TO BE PAID UPSTREAM FOR ANY COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT COULD POSE
A "GLANCING BLOW" TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. WHILE
SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FORECAST TO AFFECT ANY PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD, THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. AGAIN THOUGH, AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES DO LOOK TO ENTER THE FORECAST LATE
NEXT WEEK, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR, AS
A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. /19/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 94 75 94 75 / 0 0 10 0
MERIDIAN 94 75 93 75 / 10 0 10 10
VICKSBURG 94 76 93 75 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 97 75 95 76 / 0 10 10 20
NATCHEZ 94 75 92 75 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 94 75 93 76 / 10 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 94 74 94 75 / 10 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19/KP
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