104
FXUS64 KJAN 312319 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
519 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE NEW
YEAR.
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT: THE YEAR WILL END ON A DRY NOTE WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE BEHAVING WELL, OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
THE AREA SHOW HIGHS IN THE MID 50S F NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S F
SOUTHWEST WHICH IS IN-LINE WITH GOING FORECASTS. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND TONIGHT, A DECENT AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM
OUT FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 30S F IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FROST, AIDED BY A
MODEST INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL HUMIDITY OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO.
/22/86/
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY: SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED HEADING INTO NEW YEARS DAY (THURSDAY) WITH
THE AREA REMAINING UNDER THE CONTROL OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THURSDAY WILL REACH THE 60S F WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70 F. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY EVENING/THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN RECENTLY DUE TO CLOUDS AND MOISTURE,
ONLY DROPPING INTO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S F.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE SOME LIMITED THERMODYNAMIC
INSTABILITY, 500-800 J/KG MUCAPE, COULD DEVELOP. ATOP THE RATHER
SHALLOW SURFACE MOISTURE, OWING TO LIMITED RESIDENCE TIME OVER WATER
OF THE INCOMING PREFRONTAL MOISTURE PLUME, A REMNANT CAPPING
INVERSION WITH POOR LAPSE RATES ABOVE WILL LIMIT SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE
IN THE AREAS WHERE THE BETTER COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY IS LIKELY. THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MEANINGFUL
UPGRADES IN THE RISK OUTLOOK BEYOND THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
STRONGER STORM OR TWO WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. SHOULD LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL THAN ESTIMATED OR THE MID
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BE A BIT COOLER (EITHER DUE TO UNDERESTIMATED
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT OR A GREATER AMOUNT OF LIFTING THAN IS
EXPECTED) , IT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A ROGUE
THUNDERSTORM NEAR OR SOUTH OF I-20 COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS WITH SOME RISK FOR A DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS OUTCOME DOES
NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR LIKELY BUT CAN'T TOTALLY BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE QUALITY OF SHEAR THAT EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE TIME
(>200 0-1KM SRH AND 50-60 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR). SHOULD ANY
VERY LOW END RISK MATERIALIZE FOR A BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO, THAT
WOULD LIKELY BE FOUND NEARER THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE
ALONGSIDE SIMILAR, CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND 75-85 DEGREE
CRITICAL ANGLES.
OVERALL, THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FOR ALMOST EVERYONE ARE LIKELY TO BE
0.1-0.25" OF RAIN AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH LITTLE
FANFARE OTHERWISE.
THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING
AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. QUIET CONDITIONS THEN ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW MODERATES THE TEMPERATURES TO A
BIT ABOVE EARLY JANUARY NORMALS-- DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 60S/70S F
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S/50S F. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. /86/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY
LIGHT SW WIND. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 37 66 48 70 / 0 0 0 40
MERIDIAN 34 65 44 67 / 0 0 0 40
VICKSBURG 36 67 50 73 / 0 0 0 40
HATTIESBURG 36 69 47 74 / 0 0 0 20
NATCHEZ 37 68 50 75 / 0 0 0 20
GREENVILLE 37 63 49 66 / 0 0 10 50
GREENWOOD 35 64 48 66 / 0 0 10 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/86/DL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page