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FXUS64 KJAN 261136 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
536 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
- SEASONABLE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
THROUGH FRIDAY: OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL JET TROUGHING SINKS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SCATTERED LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
DAYTIME. MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS, POSSIBLY A LINE OF
STORMS, AS FORCING INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT. OVERALL INSTABILITY
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER, WITH RATHER STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ANTICIPATED, A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE TIME
THAT INSTABILITY WANES IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK HAS BEEN ADDED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS LIMITED SEVERE
THREAT. ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS IS MUCH NEEDED IN MOST AREAS AND
SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH AN AIRMASS THAT IS ONLY MILDLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE UPPER JET REMAINS NORTH OF
OUR REGION. IN FACT, IN MOST AREAS, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AS SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF OUR AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE MIDWEST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, BUT PERIODIC
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN'T BE RULED OUT, MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREATS THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. /DL/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
SCATTERED LIGHT SHRA AND PATCHY MVFR STRATUS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. THOUGH LOWER CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AT A
FEW SITES, MOST AREAS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS WITH
CEILING REDUCTIONS TO IFR TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 76 55 72 47 / 50 70 10 0
MERIDIAN 74 55 72 45 / 70 80 10 0
VICKSBURG 76 53 73 46 / 30 60 10 0
HATTIESBURG 78 59 77 50 / 40 80 30 0
NATCHEZ 77 58 76 49 / 20 60 10 0
GREENVILLE 73 49 70 45 / 20 30 0 0
GREENWOOD 73 50 72 45 / 40 40 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL
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