766
FXUS64 KJAN 250531
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1131 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A MAJOR ICE STORM WILL CONTINUE UNFOLDING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
- SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM ICE AND SLEET COULD DEVELOP AS FAR
SOUTHEAST AS THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- SIGNIFICANT TO EXTREME COLD CONDITIONS WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
REST OF TONIGHT...
DRASTIC THERMAL GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION, WITH A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OF NEARLY 40 DEGREES FROM GREENVILLE TO
HATTIESBURG. IN THE NORTHWEST DELTA TO HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AROUND
THE OKTIBBEHA TO WINSTON COUNTY AREA, THE RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE
THE SURFACE WET BULB FREEZING LINE FROM AROUND HARRISONBURG IN LA
TO GREENWOOD IN MS. THESE ARE THE MAIN AREAS THAT WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. ANY OTHER AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S SHOULD REMAIN RAIN
THROUGH A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT, HELPING STRENGTHEN THE THERMAL CIRCULATION OVER THE
AREA AND INDUCING WARM ADVECTION IN THE PINE BELT, WHILE STRONG
ARCTIC, DANGEROUS COLD ADVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST DELTA. THE WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD STOP IN NORTHEAST MS INTO THE HIGHWAY 45 CORRIDOR
WHILE DANGEROUS ARCTIC AIR WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST
LA AND SOUTHWEST MS. EARLIER HRRR RUNS INDICATED THIS COLDER AIR,
WITH SOME EARLIER ANALYSIS INDICATIVE OF SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER
THAN BLENDED FORECAST GUIDANCE, SUPPORTIVE OF MORE SLEET IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. REGARDLESS, FORECAST THINKING IS GENERALLY ON
TRACK AND HWO GRAPHIC LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
TIMING OF THE SIGNIFICANT AND ELEVATED AREAS FOR MORE INITIATION
AROUND 5AM SUNDAY. LASTLY, SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS OVERNIGHT
DUE TO MODEST SHEAR (NEARLY STRONG 40-50KT MEAN BULK SHEAR) AND
SOME LIMITED DESTABILIZATION. GUSTY STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT TO MID-MORNING HOURS IN THE PINE BELT INTO THE
INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR, WHERE A MARGINAL REMAINS ADVERTISED. THIS
SHOULD BE SHORT DURATION BEFORE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. FREQUENT FORECAST UPDATES HAVE BEEN COMPLETED EARLIER TO
ADJUST TIMING OF WEATHER ONSET. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
THE WELL-ADVERTISED ICE STORM IS UNDERWAY IN THE REGION, WITH A MIX
OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FALLING IN PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA,
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS, AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AT THE PRESENT HOUR.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS HEADING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THIS NEXT WEEK. ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OOZE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EVEN DURING THE
DAYTIME. TEMPS AS FAR SOUTH AS JENA AND SICILY ISLAND IN LOUISIANA
HAVE WET-BULBED TO FREEZING (32 F) WITH PRECIP FALLING SO FAR TODAY.
AT THE SAME TIME, THE "WARM NOSE" OF AIR ADVECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THIS AIR MASS HAS SLIGHTLY WARMED SINCE THIS MORNING. THE 12Z KJAN
SOUNDING MEASURED A WARM TEMP OF AROUND 9 C AT 850MB, BUT A SPECIAL
18Z KJAN SOUNDING MEASURED A SATURATED COLUMN WITH 13 C AT 900 MB.
JUST TO OUR WEST, A ULM RESEARCH TEAM'S SOUNDING MEASURED A SIMILAR
WARM LAYER ALOFT, BUT CLOUD TEMPS IN THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR BENEATH
THIS LAYER WERE AS COLD AS -8 C AND SLEET WAS OBSERVED WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING. THIS SUGGESTS THE INTENSITY OF PRECIP AND
COLDNESS OF AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH PRECIP TYPE
TO SLEET AS THE AIR MASS DEEPENS. EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF MS AND NORTHEAST MS, THE FREEZING LINE IS HOLDING STEADY
OR EVEN LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRANSITION TO
ICE OR SLEET ALONG THIS TRANSITION ZONE REMAINS THE CHALLENGE FOR
THIS FORECAST.
WEST OF THE TRANSITION LINE, SIGNIFICANT TO EXTREME IMPACTS FROM ICE
AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS IS ALREADY CAUSING ICE TO IMPACT ROADS AND
BRIDGES. AND THIS IMPACT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. IT
APPEARS THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE "LULL" IN INTENSITY OF PRECIP SAY
BETWEEN 6 PM THIS EVENING AND MIDNIGHT, BUT THE SECOND PRIMARY WAVE
OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE SUNDAY MORNING
HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS IS
THE ROUND OF PRECIP WHICH COULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OF ICE
AND SLEET TOWARDS THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR, WHILE IMPACTS CONTINUE
TO THE NORTHWEST. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT FOCUSED IN
SOUTHEAST LA/SOUTHEAST MS WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST US TOMORROW.
MODEST WIND SHEAR AND ENOUGH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SOUTHEAST OF
THE DEVELOPING FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE MORNING
HOURS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MS. IT'S A
CONDITIONAL THREAT, BUT IF A FORCED LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH THE
WARMER AIR MASS IN THOSE AREAS, THEN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD BE A
CONCERN. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS THEREFORE ADVERTISED
FROM 6 AM TO NOON SUNDAY IN OUR SOUTHEAST MS COUNTIES.
MOST NEW-FALLING PRECIP IMPACTS SHOULD END IN OUR FORECAST AREA BY
NOON TO 3 PM SUNDAY, THOUGH IT'S ALWAYS POSSIBLE FOR SOME SNOW
FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS COLDER
AIR DEEPENS AND DRIES OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS IS WHEN IMPACTS WILL
SHIFT FROM PRECIPITATION-DRIVEN TO TEMPERATURE-DRIVEN. AN EXTREME
COLD WARNING IS IN PLACE FROM TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE AREAS ALREADY
STAYING COLDER THAN FREEZING EVEN THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 10-20 DEGREE RANGE TOMORROW NIGHT
AND 5-15 DEGREE RANGE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME WIND STILL, WIND
CHILLS EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 0 DEGREES IN
THE ARKLAMISS DELTA RANGING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE PINE BELT OF
SOUTHEAST MS. IT'S STILL POSSIBLE FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE DELTA TO
ONLY WARM UP AROUND FREEZING ON TUESDAY, BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REINFORCE COOL
AIR IN OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AND TEMPS SHOULD
MAINLY HOLD IN THE 10S/20S OVERNIGHT AND 30S/40S DURING THE DAY
ACROSS OUR CWA. THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE, LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN
OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO SAY THAT WINTRY PRECIP
OF ANY TYPE WILL FALL, BUT THERE IS NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR THAT AT
THIS CURRENT TIME. /NF/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS LOW CEILING AND
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP IS
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE RETURNING AROUND 09Z
SUNDAY. PERIODS OF -FZRA IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NEAR 12Z SUNDAY FOR
SITES NORTH AND ALONG OF NATCHEZ TRACE; ELSEWHERE, -RA AND RA IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF NATCHEZ TRACE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY EVENING. IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 30 33 15 30 / 100 100 0 0
MERIDIAN 39 54 17 37 / 100 100 0 0
VICKSBURG 25 29 14 29 / 100 100 0 0
HATTIESBURG 47 67 22 41 / 100 100 0 0
NATCHEZ 28 31 16 32 / 100 100 0 0
GREENVILLE 20 25 10 24 / 100 100 0 0
GREENWOOD 25 27 11 25 / 100 100 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>038-
040>044-047>049-053-054-059>061.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ039-045-050-
055-056-062.
LA...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
ARZ074-075.
DC/NF/SW
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