023
FXUS64 KJAN 091142 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
642 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-MORNING.
- SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL
SIZE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO
TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS OUR NEXT THREAT FOR STORMS.
FIRST THIS MORNING, AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
EAST MS AND CENTRAL LA. WITH BROKEN DECKS OF BOTH HIGH CLOUDS AND
LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA, FOG IS NOT
WIDESPREAD; HOWEVER, WHERE IT EXISTS, IT HAS BE DENSE. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH MID-MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL TWEAKS TO THE ADVISORY AREA.
MEANWHILE, WE'LL BE WATCHING UPSTREAM AROUND THE ARKLATEX FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EARLY TODAY AND SPREAD EASTWARD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. WITH THE REMNANT
SURFACE FRONT FROM SUNDAY'S STORMS RETURNING NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT, INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THESE INITIAL
STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS AR AND NORTH MS. GIVEN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND
STRONG DEEP SHEAR, STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE BEGINNING AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT. IN ADDITION TO THIS INITIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER, ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN MORE SUBTLE FORCING IN THE UNTAPPED
ENVIRONMENT FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH MS AND
NORTHEAST LA. WHILE THESE STORMS MAY BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
IN NATURE DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WOULD HAVE GREATER ACCESS THE SAME UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PUSHING IN THE 7-8 C/KM
RANGE, LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE WILL BE A REAL POSSIBILITY.
THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE LESSER THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO IN THE
AREA, THE SAME IMPACTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE LOW LEVEL HELICITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK, A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
STORMS WILL TAPER OFF BY MID- EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES
AND INSTABILITY DECREASES.
WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE, THERE WILL BE NO SUBSTANTIAL AIRMASS
CHANGE IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S STORMS. RATHER, WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST,
A MORE POTENT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SAVE FOR ISOLATED WARM ADVECTION SHOWER
ACTIVITY, BENIGN AND MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER LINE OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA. THOUGH DEEP SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER WITH THIS
SYSTEM, IT WILL ALSO BE LARGELY BOUNDARY PARALLEL, WHICH OFTEN
DOESN'T YIELD THE MOST EFFICIENT SEVERE WIND PRODUCING STORMS. ONE
CAVEAT IS ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE MAY BE ABLE TO
BETTER TAP INTO THIS REGIME. STILL, MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
INCREASED UPPER FLOW WILL PRESENT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. WHILE TORNADOES CAN'T BE RULED OUT, THE IMPACT OF A VERY
SOUTHWARD TRACK OF A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL LA AND
SOUTH MS SHOULD TEND TO NOT FAVOR A LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CONDUCIVE
FOR TORNADOES. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE A WELCOME SIGHT FOR THE BULK OF OUR
AREA THAT IS EXPERIENCING LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A BRIEF RETURN TO COOLER, MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY,
THOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BOUNCE BACK QUICKLY INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS RETURN
FLOW KICKS BACK IN BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MAY
BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIME FRAME, WITH A RETURNING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY SUNDAY. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUSTAINED COOL OFF BEHIND THIS SYSTEM,
WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S BACK IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY IN SOME
AREAS. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, AND THUS, A LOWER
CONFIDENCE POSSIBILITY. /DL/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
A MIX OF VFR-IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL NORTH AND CNTRL THROUGH 15Z
BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE SOUTH THROUGH 15Z BEFORE IMPROVING. AFTER 18Z SCT-NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN AND
CNTRL TAF SITES BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER 23Z. IN THE SOUTH
VCSH/VCTS WL BE PSBL BY 21Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z BEFORE
TAPERING OFF. MVFR CIGS WL DEVELOP AT MOST TAF SITES BY 05Z AND
THEN LOWER TO IFR BY 10Z. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 81 65 83 67 / 70 40 0 0
MERIDIAN 81 63 84 65 / 70 40 0 0
VICKSBURG 80 65 83 66 / 80 30 0 0
HATTIESBURG 84 67 87 67 / 50 20 10 0
NATCHEZ 82 66 83 67 / 70 20 0 0
GREENVILLE 76 65 80 67 / 90 40 0 10
GREENWOOD 79 66 83 67 / 90 50 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ029>033-
037>039-044>046-050>052-055>058-061>066-072>074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/DL/22
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