699
FXUS64 KJAN 101017
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
517 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LIMITED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THIS WEEKEND. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
THROUGH SATURDAY: A SURFACE RIDGE WHICH HELPED TO LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES YESTERDAY WILL BEGIN TO LOSE INFLUENCE IN OUR REGION AS IT
RETREATS EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC. ACROSS NORTH MS AND PERHAPS
INTO PARTS OF AR AND NORTH LA, DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN MIX DOWN INTO
THE 60S WITH LIMITED RAIN CHANCES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER
SOUTH, AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY A SURFACE
TROUGH LIFTING TOWARD THE GULF COAST TODAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE
DIURNAL CONVECTION AND RESULT IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
AREA. BY TOMORROW, ALONG WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHWARD
MOVING TROUGH, A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH
WITH A WEAK SUMMERTIME FRONT STALLING TO OUR NORTH, RESULTING IN
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA THAN
TODAY. THIS REGIME WILL CARRY OVER INTO SATURDAY TO SOME EXTENT,
THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD.
IT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
AND HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY REACH ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS IN A FEW SPOTS, BUT THE HEAT STRESS THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE TEMPERED ENOUGH BY MIXING NORTH AND INCREASED PRECIP/CLOUDS
SOUTH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WE WILL
STILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT LIMITED HEAT STRESS CONCERNS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK
IN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING US BACK TO MORE
TYPICAL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SUMMERTIME DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES TICKING BACK UPWARD TOWARD THE UPPER 90S IN SOME
AREAS. WITH A RATHER MUGGY AIRMASS STILL AROUND, WE MAY BEGIN TO
SEE HEAT INDICES AGAIN REACHING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE AREA.
/DL/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING NEAR SOUTHERN TAF SITES./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 96 72 92 72 / 20 10 70 30
MERIDIAN 95 72 91 72 / 20 10 90 40
VICKSBURG 96 73 93 72 / 20 10 50 10
HATTIESBURG 92 73 90 73 / 80 30 90 20
NATCHEZ 95 73 92 72 / 20 20 70 10
GREENVILLE 98 74 96 73 / 0 0 40 30
GREENWOOD 97 73 95 71 / 0 10 50 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/KP
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