340
FXUS64 KJAN 071546 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
946 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH 10AM THIS MORNING.
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA TOMORROW.
SEVERE STORMS REMAIN A CONCERN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. LIKELY FROST AND FREEZE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 939 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT THE DENSE FOG WAS
BEGINNING TO LIFT IN MOST AREAS BUT OUR NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY SEE
THE DENSE FOG CONTINUE UNTIL 10AM BEFORE IMPROVING. A COLD FRONT
WAS STALLED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. OUR CWA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE; BELOW 850MB PER THE 12Z WED JAN
SOUNDING, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LAYER OF STRATUS SIMILAR TO THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS THAT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CONTINUATION OF OUR WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
TODAY AND THURSDAY: WATER VAPOR/RAP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATE
PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS CENTERED TO THE
WEST, WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. RETURN MOIST FLOW
HAS LED TO CONCERNS FOR STRATUS AND DENSE FOG. HREF DENSE FOG PROBS
REMAIN LIKELY (30 TO 70 PERCENT) AND DENSE FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
A BROAD PORTION OF THE AREA. ONGOING DENSE FOG HWO GRAPHIC AND
HEADLINES ARE ON TRACK. ANOTHER ROUND OF AT THE VERY LEAST PATCHY
DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WILL ASSESS AND MAKE
ANY ADDITIONAL UPDATES AS NEEDED. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE A
TOUCH HIGHER AND COULD HAMPER MORE FAVORABLE POTENTIAL.
SEASONABLE WARMTH WILL BE THE NORM DURING THIS PERIOD. LEAD WAVE
WILL OF JET ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE MID-WEST THURSDAY, DRIVING
A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE TODAY BUT STALL ALONG TO NORTH OF I-20. THE BEST
MOIST CONVERGENCE WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO OVERNIGHT IN THE
DELTA, WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NORM, SOME WELL ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES, UP TO 25F TO 30F ABOVE NORMAL. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT (6 TO 10MB) MAY SUPPORT SOME BRIEF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30MPH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HWO GRAPHIC. SPC
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL THURSDAY IN THE
DELTA, WHICH IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME SHEAR (30 TO 50KTS IN THE 0-3KM
AND 0-6KM LAYERS) AND MLCAPE (200 TO 400 J/KG). TIMING WILL BE
MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT, GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WOULD
BE THE MAIN CONCERN BUT A BRIEF TORNADO COULDN'T BE RULED OUT.
WILL ADD THIS MESSAGING IN HWO GRAPHICS.
LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (FRIDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY):
GLOBAL, ENSEMBLE AND AI MODEL SUITE INDICATE THIS LEAD WAVE
EJECTION AND SOUTHERN TRAILING SPOKE/COLD CORE HANGING OVER THE
DESERT SW TO TX TO OK PANHANDLES INTO FRIDAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN. JUXTAPOSITION OF SUFFICIENT LOW TO DEEP
SHEAR (40 TO 55KTS IN THE 0- 3KM AND 0-6KM LAYERS) AND LAPSE
RATES/DESTABILIZATION (25C TO 27C VERTICAL TOTALS AND 500 TO 1000
MLCAPE) CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, MOSTLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND STABLE TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES (578 TO
582DM AT 500MB) MAY LIMIT SOME POTENTIAL. THINK THERE REMAINS
ENOUGH METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES AND SYNOPTIC AND SURFACE SETUP TO
KEEP INHERITED SEVERE MESSAGING AND HAZARDS. NCAR AI CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOKS AND CSU MACHINE LEARNING PROBS (10 TO 25 PERCENT)
VALIDATE THIS THINKING. ONSET TIMING STILL LOOKS TO BE AROUND NOON
FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LATE AS DAYBREAK SATURDAY. DAMAGING
WINDS GUSTS, A TORNADO OR TWO AND SOME SMALL HAIL CAN'T BE RULED
OUT. NAM IS A TOUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MORE VEERING AND
CLOCKWISE CURVING HODOGRAPHS, SO DON'T WANT TO DOWNPLAY SOME
TORNADO POTENTIAL (ALBEIT LOWER THAN DAMAGING WINDS). TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN LINE ORTHOGONAL NORTHEAST BOWING
SEGMENTS.
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL DRIVE PWS INTO THE
1.7 TO 1.9 RANGE, 850MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 14C/THETA E NEAR 330K. THIS
WILL DRIVE BROAD TRAINING AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATION TOTALS. MADDOX
CONCEPTUAL MODEL SOMEWHAT FITS THE MEAN SYNOPTIC AND SURFACE
PATTERN. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN
TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, POTENTIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
82 INTO THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE TO TN VALLEY SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 2 TO 3 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE NOT FULLY RULED OUT. HOWEVER, RECENT DRYNESS
SHOULD LIMIT MOST FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS SO HOLDING OFF MESSAGING
JUST YET.
MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. STRONG SURFACE HIGH (I.E.~1035MB) WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD, STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO ARKLATEX TO MID SOUTH
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LIKELY FREEZE INTO THE FOLLOWING WORK
WEEK ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. NBM PROBABILITIES EXCEED
POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT FREEZE INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK (60 TO 90
PERCENT BELOW FREEZING AND 40 TO 70 PERCENT BELOW 28F). THIS
SEASONABLY COOL PATTERN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND
MODERATION BUILD INTO THE MID PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. /DC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN
IFR/LIFR PREVAILING VIS/CIG THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO PREVAILING VFR THROUGH DAYTIME MIXING. LOW STRATUS AND
FOG WILL BE PROBABLE AGAIN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT,
GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS, AND SOUTH TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. /86/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 59 77 65 / 0 0 10 70
MERIDIAN 75 57 76 62 / 0 0 10 50
VICKSBURG 74 59 77 65 / 0 0 20 70
HATTIESBURG 79 60 79 65 / 0 0 10 50
NATCHEZ 77 61 79 65 / 0 0 10 80
GREENVILLE 69 56 73 65 / 0 0 30 70
GREENWOOD 71 57 76 64 / 0 0 10 80
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ018-019-
025>066-072>074.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-
015-016-023>026.
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.
22/DC/86
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