997  
FXUS64 KJAN 161612  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
1112 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURING MAINLY ACROSS THE DELTA  
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS AREA TO REMAIN THE FOCUS OF  
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. A LIMITED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING  
AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE IS ALREADY IN EFFECT ACROSS THE  
DELTA. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO WX/POPS, BUT OTHER THAN THAT THE  
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /15/  
 
PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW:  
 
THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT:  
 
IN THE SHORT TERM, THE REMAINS OF BARRY WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND  
BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND  
TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE, A LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN A  
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND THE REGION. JUST  
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA (CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  
ARKANSAS) EARLY THIS MORNING, AN AXIS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF BARRY'S REMNANT  
CIRCULATION. SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED ACROSS SOME OF THE  
ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION OVERNIGHT, BUT THEY HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH  
THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN ANCHORED OVER MORE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF  
ARKANSAS. BY NOONTIME TODAY, EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA  
AS INSTABILITY BUILDS IN WHAT REMAINS A FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS.  
HIGHER PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES AND BETTER MID-LEVEL ASCENT NEAR  
THE REMNANTS OF BARRY WILL KEEP A LIMITED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING  
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND AREAS IN THE MS DELTA GENERALLY  
NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO GREENVILLE TODAY AND  
TONIGHT. ALSO WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUING IN THE VICINITY  
OF BARRY'S CIRCULATION AND MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY THIS  
AFTERNOON, A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR FAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA, SOUTHEAST  
ARKANSAS, AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY  
STRONGER STORMS TODAY.  
 
GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVIER  
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY SET UP ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF BARRY'S  
REMNANT CIRCULATION AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH  
THE GREATEST THREAT CENTERED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI.  
THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A THREAT FOR AREAS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST  
AREA, BUT WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY IN CASE THE  
AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO INSTEAD SET UP FARTHER SOUTH IN OUR  
AREA. WILL KEEP WITH THE "LIMITED" FLASH FLOOD THREAT WORDING IN THE  
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TEXT AND GRAPHICS THROUGH TONIGHT IN  
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. /NF/  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY:  
 
AS WE GO THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK, GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE  
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST INFLUENCE ON ARKLAMISS  
WEATHER. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND STAGNANT AIRMASS, WE  
WILL SEE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD UP, ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHT  
AND POSITIVE H850 ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK WELL NORTH OF THE  
FORECAST AREA. SO DRY BULB TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT ESCALATE TOO MUCH  
WITH RH BEING THE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO THE HEAT STRESS. WILL  
CONTINUE TO MENTION A LIMITED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT IN THE  
HWO/GRAPHICS.  
 
INITIALLY, THE RIDGE WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS DIURNAL CONVECTIVE  
RAIN CHANCES, BUT LOOK FOR IT TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY THE  
WEEKEND BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SOME INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THIS  
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND DIMINISHING HEAT STRESS BY  
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. /EC/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAF DISCUSSION:  
LOW STRATUS PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CONDITIONS THIS  
MORNING, WITH IFR CEILINGS PERSISTING THROUGH AROUND 14Z AT KMEI.  
STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN AND LIFT BY 15Z TO 16Z ACROSS THE  
REGION, WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED  
AROUND THE REGION BETWEEN AROUND 18Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY,  
AND BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED WINDS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER STORMS. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A  
RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY, BUT CHANCES WERE TOO  
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. /NF/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 87 73 91 73 / 30 15 14 2  
MERIDIAN 91 73 93 73 / 24 12 11 3  
VICKSBURG 86 74 90 75 / 37 17 13 1  
HATTIESBURG 91 72 92 73 / 21 8 17 2  
NATCHEZ 86 73 89 73 / 33 11 20 2  
GREENVILLE 85 74 89 75 / 55 46 17 1  
GREENWOOD 85 74 89 76 / 58 49 28 2  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
15  
 
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