303
FXUS64 KJAN 171142 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
542 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF COLD WEATHER WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR COLDER
AIR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND TURN
COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT AS WE GO THROUGH TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME
AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA WILL SEE SUN
DURING THE DAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE PESKIER FOR LOCATIONS
FARTHER SOUTH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A DRIER/MORE
EASTWARD SOLUTION WITH A SECONDARY WAVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AND AT THIS STAGE, THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IS
INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO COASTAL MS, THOUGH WE CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE
OUT STRAY NONIMPACTFUL SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAINLY ALONG THE I-59
CORRIDOR. WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IS BLUSTERY CONDITIONS IN
INCREASING COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S AND TEMPS FALLING TO THE 20S BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: COLD AND DRY WILL BE THE MAIN THEME OVER
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND'S FRONT THERE
WILL BE A REINFORCING FRONT ON MONDAY SUSTAINING THE COLDER, DRIER
AIRMASS. DAYS WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S
WITH WIND CHILLS LINGERING IN THE 30S IN MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AND MORNINGS, A WIDESPREAD FREEZE
IS EXPECTED WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING LOOKS TO BE OUR COLDEST TIME FRAME WITH TEMPS IN THE
TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF AR AND NORTH MS. FORTUNATELY WIND
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME FRAME, LIMITING THE ADDED
IMPACT TO APPARENT TEMPS. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT GIVEN THIS APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL CASE
AND WITH TEMPS RECOVERING DURING THE DAY, THERE ARE NO IMMINENT
PLANS TO HIGHLIGHT THE COLD WEATHER THREAT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK,
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AND
FLUCTUATE RUN TO RUN WITH THE HANDLING OF AN ACTIVE UPPER TROUGH
AND TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE. A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IS SHOWING UP IN MOST GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH, AND A COUPLE OF FRONTAL WAVE PRECIP EVENTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, SO THIS COULD CREATE MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. /DL/EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS OVERNIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SUBSIDED AND
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED NEAR TAF SITES. PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN IFR/LIFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AROUND 11-12Z.
LINGERING FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE, IMPROVING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 52 25 44 28 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 53 24 44 26 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 52 24 45 28 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 56 30 50 28 / 10 10 0 0
NATCHEZ 53 26 47 29 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 47 23 42 28 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 50 21 41 26 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/SW
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