662
FXUS64 KJAN 240859
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
359 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2018
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TODAY, AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL
KEEP A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THE SURFACE
LOW ITSELF SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD, SO CONVECTION
THAT FORMS TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY UNORGANIZED AND UNFOCUSED.
AFTERNOON CAPE APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG AND PWAT VALUES AROUND
2.0 INCHES WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT A TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH
WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
OR SEVERE STORMS. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT, WITH A
LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID-70S.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. /NF/
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE FROM THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS, CURRENTLY APPEARS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE FORECAST AREA. AS
ONE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, ANOTHER WILL TRY
PUSHING INTO THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING INTO
THE REGION AND INCREASED TROUGHING, STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
TO OUR EAST LOOKS TO CAUSE THE FRONT TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION, AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY FLATTENS. LATE WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND, THE FRONT HANGS UP AND ESSENTIALLY MEANDERS ABOUT THE
CWA.
AS A RESULT, WARM HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE
REGION BEHIND WEDNESDAY'S FRONT. HOWEVER, WHOM WILL EXACTLY
OBSERVE THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR, DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CWA.
GOOD RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON WILL OBVIOUSLY ALSO HAVE AN AFFECT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES,
WHICH GENERALLY LOOK TO HOVER IN THE MID 80 TO AROUND 90 RANGE.
SOME CONVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. /19/
AVIATION
06Z TAF DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO START THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES BEFORE 12Z MONDAY. THEN
EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CEILINGS AND INCREASE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY 18Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY, WITH SOME CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR
SEVERAL OF THE TAF SITES. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 88 72 88 71 / 64 34 60 53
MERIDIAN 87 72 89 72 / 64 29 56 46
VICKSBURG 88 72 89 71 / 64 36 59 50
HATTIESBURG 88 72 89 71 / 60 34 56 39
NATCHEZ 86 72 86 72 / 64 35 59 43
GREENVILLE 86 72 87 70 / 64 38 57 48
GREENWOOD 85 72 86 71 / 64 32 62 59
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/19
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