139
FXUS64 KJAN 150815
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
215 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION
AROUND A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE ARKLATEX. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAD A SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW. THESE
FEATURES WILL BECOME NEARLY STACKED AS THEY TRACK EAST ACROSS OUR
CWA TODAY. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MOVING EAST
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES ALONG AND A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
WILL END WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MAINTAINED TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA AND
INTO ALABAMA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS COME IN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
EXPECTED AND WILL EXIT A LITTLE FASTER. AS A RESULT THE CHANCE FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO END BEFORE THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER BUT TODAY'S HIGH AND
TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL.
SURFACE RIDGING AND BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER OUR CWA
MONDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL BECOME ORIENTED ALONG THE GULF
COAST FROM THE EAST TUESDAY RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW THAT WILL WORK
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS OUR REGION. THE
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. DRY WEATHER ALONG
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AS WE GO INTO THE END OF THE WEEK SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
THESE DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS THAT WILL TRACK
WELL TO OUR NORTH BUT SEND A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE REMAIN TIMING DIFFERENCES
BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OUR
CWA SUNDAY. /22/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE MOVING IN ACROSS MOST TAF SITES PRECEDING A
CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY SWEEPING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TIMING IS NEAR CURRENT THROUGH
15/08Z IN INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR AT HKS, JAN AND 15/09-11Z AT
HBG, PIB AND MEI. SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND FREQUENT GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 TO 50MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT TAF SITE WITH MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTERLY THEN
NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST TAF SITES.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS BUT THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS MVFR STRATUS WILL BUILD DOWN TO IFR TO LIFR IN
NORTH TO EAST TAF SITES (I.E. GWO, GTR, MEI) WITH ACCOMPANYING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LASTLY, SOME BRIEF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40MPH
NOT TIED TO THE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15/12-18Z SUNDAY
FROM THE DELTA AND POTENTIALLY FURTHER EAST. THERE WILL BE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CEILINGS AFTER 16/01-02Z MONDAY, WHILE SLOWER
IMPROVEMENTS AT HBG AND PIB UNTIL 16/04-06Z NEAR THE END OF THE
06Z TAF CYCLE. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 66 48 69 50 / 90 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 66 48 69 48 / 90 10 0 0
VICKSBURG 67 48 68 49 / 90 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 72 51 73 49 / 60 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 70 49 72 50 / 50 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 62 46 64 49 / 90 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 64 46 68 50 / 80 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/22/DC
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