656
FXUS64 KJAN 162315
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
615 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
CONTINUES INTO THIS WEEKEND.
- A "RED FLAG WARNING" REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY, AND WILL BE IN EFFECT AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS
OF MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER, VERY LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA IN ITS WAKE, IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE USHERING IN A
NOTICEABLY COOLER DRIER AIRMASS, THAT'LL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE PLEASANT EARLY FALL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
DURING THIS TIME, TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM ACROSS THE REGION
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN. THUS, RESULTING IN
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY, A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOIL
CONDITIONS REMAIN CRITICALLY DRY, WITH NO RAIN CHANCES IN SITE.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PROMOTE A VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS
THE REGION. WHILE LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL YIELD
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COMPARED
TO TODAY, HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STILL FALL TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS AT
AROUND 30-35% ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA. THEREFORE, I'VE
UPGRADED THE "FIRE WEATHER WATCH" TO A "RED FLAG WARNING" FOR
SATURDAY ON THIS AFTERNOON'S PACKAGE. TODAY'S "RED FLAG WARNING" IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT. /19/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT, AS
SFC WIND DIMINISHES A BIT, LLWS WILL BECOME A GREATER CONCERN.
OTHERWISE, CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES
FOR SATURDAY. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 50 71 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 48 69 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 48 71 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 50 73 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 50 71 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 48 69 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 47 70 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
025>066-072>074.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>066-072>074.
LA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ007>009-
015-016-023>026.
AR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
19/EC
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