966
FXUS64 KJAN 210835
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
235 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM A
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS
WILL HELP SUPPORT THE PROGRESSION OF THE STRONG POLAR FRONT TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL AID ASCENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HELP TO REINTRODUCE
RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FARTHER SOUTH. /KP/
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: OVERALL, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS THINKING AS A POTENT WINTER STORM WILL LIKELY
BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO OUR CWA IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW ALONG WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION
WILL END SUNDAY EVENING, THE DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO MENTION
ACCUMULATIONS AS SPECIFIC AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS COULD STILL CHANGE
AT THIS TIME FRAME OUT FROM THIS WINTER STORM EVENT. LATEST GRAPHICS
AND MESSAGING ARE BASED ON A REASONABLE RANGE OF POSSIBLE
ICE/SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND REASONABLE EARLIEST ONSET TIMES FOR
WINTER WEATHER ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL STEER REINFORCING COOL AIR MASSES TOWARD
THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. COME THURSDAY MORNING
RAIN WILL BE ONGOING WHILE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS DROPS OUT OF CANADA
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY FRIDAY. THE CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WITH
1045MB+ PRESSURE VALUES WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BEFORE
WEAKENING, BUT THE EXPANSIVE AIRMASS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE SOUTH
AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG NORTH-
SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. TO OUR WEST, A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MORE
LIKELY INFLUENCE WHAT DEGREE OF WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS WE EXPERIENCE
HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A
CONSENSUS ON THE SCENARIO FOR BETTER NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE
AND THEREFORE MORE EXPANSIVE WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS THROUGH THE GULF
SOUTH AND MIDSOUTH REGIONS. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES FOR HOW
PROGRESSIVE THE SYSTEM WILL BE (AS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST LOWS AT
THIS TIME OF YEAR), BUT SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT IS THERE TO EXTEND THE
THREAT FOR WINTRY PRECIP FALLING INTO THE MORNING AT LEAST ON
SUNDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT SETUP, THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST
1/4 INCH (ICE STORM WARNING CRITERIA) HAS INCREASED TO AT LEAST 50-
60% FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE.
CHANCES EVEN INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI FOR 1/4 INCH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE AROUND 20-40% AT THIS TIME. REASONABLE UPPER
LIMITS INDICATE AROUND A 20% CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION
IN THE BASTROP, LAKE PROVIDENCE, HAMBURG, GREENVILLE, AND CLEVELAND
AREAS. THIS ICE STORM THREAT WAS THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR EXPANDING
THE WINTER STORM IMPACT AREAS ON LOCAL GRAPHICS AND IN MESSAGING.
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL STILL APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY NORTH AND WEST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS THERE. AND
SLEET MIXING IN WITH FREEZING RAIN COULD ALTER SOME IMPACTS, THOUGH
WOULD STILL POSE A THREAT TO TRAVEL.
THE REINFORCING NATURE OF THE AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING
THROUGH IT WILL LIKELY KEEP A PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, AND EVEN SOME DELTA
AREAS MONDAY OR TUESDAY. WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 10S
AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY IN NEXT WEEK, DANGEROUS COLD IS
ALSO A HIGH RISK. TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW DAYS WILL
POSE RISK TO IN-GROUND AND EXPOSED ABOVE-GROUND WATER PIPES.
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO PREPARE FOR
THE EXTENDED COLD WEATHER. EXPECT REFINING OF DETAILS TO THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CAUTION SHOULD BE ADVISED FOR
REFERENCING ONLINE SNOWFALL MAPS FROM WEATHER MODELS. EVEN IF THE
LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS ARE REASONABLE, MANY OF THESE OUTPUTS RELY
ON "STANDARD" SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 10 TO 1. EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC
PARAMETERS FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT CURRENTLY LIMIT SNOW-TO-LIQUID
RATIOS CLOSER TO 2 TO 1 OR 4 TO 1, THUS REDUCING POSSIBLE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THAT COULD BE ACHIEVED FROM THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION
TOTALS. /NF/22/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THIS, VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL
PERSIST AT AREA TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY, BOTH RAIN AND
LOWERING CEILINGS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS THEY
RANGE MAINLY FROM VFR TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN/WESTERN TAF SITES NEARING
THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY, SUSTAINED AROUND 10
KNOTS AND GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. /19/KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 59 50 60 47 / 70 80 50 60
MERIDIAN 59 47 61 47 / 40 70 50 60
VICKSBURG 60 48 59 44 / 80 80 50 50
HATTIESBURG 66 53 71 52 / 30 50 40 50
NATCHEZ 62 52 63 49 / 70 70 40 50
GREENVILLE 53 42 52 37 / 90 40 30 40
GREENWOOD 56 44 54 39 / 90 70 40 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
KP/22/KP
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