662  
FXUS64 KJAN 240859  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
359 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
TODAY AND TONIGHT:  
 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
VALLEY TODAY, AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL  
KEEP A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THE SURFACE  
LOW ITSELF SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD, SO CONVECTION  
THAT FORMS TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY UNORGANIZED AND UNFOCUSED.  
AFTERNOON CAPE APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG AND PWAT VALUES AROUND  
2.0 INCHES WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM SHOWERS AND  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT A TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH  
WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER  
OR SEVERE STORMS. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT, WITH A  
LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID-70S.  
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. /NF/  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:  
 
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE FROM THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST FEW  
DAYS, CURRENTLY APPEARS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE FORECAST AREA. AS  
ONE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, ANOTHER WILL TRY  
PUSHING INTO THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING INTO  
THE REGION AND INCREASED TROUGHING, STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT  
TO OUR EAST LOOKS TO CAUSE THE FRONT TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD  
PROGRESSION, AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY FLATTENS. LATE WEEK AND OVER  
THE WEEKEND, THE FRONT HANGS UP AND ESSENTIALLY MEANDERS ABOUT THE  
CWA.  
 
AS A RESULT, WARM HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE  
FORECAST PERIOD. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE  
REGION BEHIND WEDNESDAY'S FRONT. HOWEVER, WHOM WILL EXACTLY  
OBSERVE THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR, DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE  
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CWA.  
 
GOOD RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA  
AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. CONVECTION EACH  
AFTERNOON WILL OBVIOUSLY ALSO HAVE AN AFFECT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES,  
WHICH GENERALLY LOOK TO HOVER IN THE MID 80 TO AROUND 90 RANGE.  
SOME CONVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,  
WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. /19/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z TAF DISCUSSION:  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO START THE PERIOD,  
HOWEVER PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR TO  
IFR CEILINGS AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES BEFORE 12Z MONDAY. THEN  
EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CEILINGS AND INCREASE OF SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY 18Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE  
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH  
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY, WITH SOME CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR  
SEVERAL OF THE TAF SITES. /NF/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 88 72 88 71 / 64 34 60 53  
MERIDIAN 87 72 89 72 / 64 29 56 46  
VICKSBURG 88 72 89 71 / 64 36 59 50  
HATTIESBURG 88 72 89 71 / 60 34 56 39  
NATCHEZ 86 72 86 72 / 64 35 59 43  
GREENVILLE 86 72 87 70 / 64 38 57 48  
GREENWOOD 85 72 86 71 / 64 32 62 59  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NF/19  
 
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