598
FXUS64 KJAN 191735
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1135 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
- MILDER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
- WE ARE MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WINTER WEATHER AND
DANGEROUS COLD THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
A LARGE POLAR LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW VERY COLD
AIR TO SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE WEEKEND.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: POLAR FLOW INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY SUPPLY OF COLD AIR FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE WITH TEMPERATURES
AND WIND CHILL READINGS NOT QUITE MEETING "COLD WEATHER ADVISORY"
LEVELS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE POLAR STREAM WILL RETREAT
TEMPORARILY NORTHWARD AS WE GO THROUGH MID WEEK. A WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT, AND THIS WILL BRING MILDER
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES, ESPECIALLY FOR
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. AS OF NOW, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXTRAORDINARY, AND INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT SUPPORT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
NEXT WEEKEND: CONFIDENCE FOR ARCTIC AIR TO SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR REGION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 24 HRS. THERE IS ALSO
INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A WINTER WEATHER EVENT AS A FRONTAL WAVE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE ARCTIC AIR BOUNDARY AND RESULTS IN THE
FORMATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW. PRIOR TO PRECIP DEVELOPMENT, NWP
GUIDANCE SHOW A FASTER PROGRESSION TO THE FRONT, AND THIS ALLOWS
A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES TO ENVELOP MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS WE
GO FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT SOME OF THE AI GUIDANCE
ARE A GOOD BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND THE PRECIP TYPE CHANGES,
AND THEREFORE KEEP WINTER WEATHER THREATS FARTHER NORTH.
WITH THIS IN MIND, WILL HOLD OFF ON BEING VERY SPECIFIC WITH
MESSAGING WINTER WEATHER THREATS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS, BUT WILL
PROVIDE A GENERAL MESSAGE ABOUT THE OVERALL INCREASE IN THREATS.
WILL SAY THAT IS UNUSUAL TO HAVE SO MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLES
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME, SO CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE COLD/WINTER
WEATHER OCCURRING ARE AT LEAST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
ANY TIME WE ARE DEALING WITH A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE SUCH AS THE
ONE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEKEND, IT DOESN'T TAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE TO
CHANGE WEATHER DETAILS DRAMATICALLY, SO ALL INTERESTS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KTS AND
CLEAR SKIES./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 27 55 36 57 / 0 0 0 50
MERIDIAN 25 52 30 58 / 0 0 0 20
VICKSBURG 27 56 38 57 / 0 0 0 70
HATTIESBURG 30 58 36 65 / 0 0 0 20
NATCHEZ 29 58 40 59 / 0 0 0 60
GREENVILLE 25 50 35 50 / 0 0 10 80
GREENWOOD 24 51 34 53 / 0 0 0 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/KP
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