881
FXUS64 KJAN 111838
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
138 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS (LIMITED TO ELEVATED) TODAY.
- "MARGINAL RISK" (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BOTH TODAY & SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL
WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL YET AGAIN ALLOW
TROUGHING/LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TO BECOME THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH VERY GOOD CHANCES CONTINUING EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
STILL, AND AT LEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON, HOT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST AREAWIDE AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 90S. THIS, COUPLED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S, IS BRINGING HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMBING UP TO NEAR 110F, ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER ARKLAMISS DELTA
REGION WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED AFTER COORDINATION WITH
MEG/LZK OFFICES. AFTER TODAY, WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE POTENTIAL
FOR DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL BE SQUASHED.
THIS EVENING: WITH A BIT MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING
UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, ATTENTION WILL NEED TO BE PAID
UPSTREAM FOR ANY COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT
THE CWA. THE FIRST OF SUCH LOOKS TO COME LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS A COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH AND
POTENTIALLY INTO FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT, A
"MARGINAL RISK" FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS RESIDES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR MAINLY THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
SUCH STORMS, ALTHOUGH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN
BOTH BE EXPECTED.
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING: A MULTITUDE OF NEAR TERM
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE CONVECTION
GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND SO THAT IS THE GENERAL IDEA FOR
THIS FORECAST. DON'T BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS A LINGERING STRONG
STORM OR TWO AROUND DAYBREAK THAT PERSISTS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR THIS IN THE 12Z REFS (MORE
SPECICALLY THE 12Z HRRR AND REFS CONTROL MEMBERS). EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY, IF IT EXISTS, TO WASH OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AND NOT
BE A HUGE INFLUENCE ON HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATER SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK, WE'LL AGAIN MAINTAIN GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, A
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE ACROSS THE
CWA. ANOTHER "MARGINAL RISK" FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A RESULT. AGAIN, BOTH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
CONVECTION.
ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY WASHOUT, DUE TO THE OVERALL
TROUGHING/LOW PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE REGION, COMBINED WITH THE
CONTINUED HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS, THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. WHILE SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY
AREN'T FORECAST AFTER SUNDAY, GIVEN THE AGAIN OVERALL CONTINUED
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS, ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
FINALLY, COME THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY, RIDGING ALOFT
REASSERTING ITSELF OVER THE REGION FROM THE EAST IS PROGGED TO
LESSEN SAID RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE
TRADE-OFF CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A RETURN TO INCREASED HEAT STRESS
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. /19/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
VCTS/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT WITH SUSTAINED LESS THAN 10MPH AND GUSTS
LESS THAN 15MPH. /KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 89 72 87 / 20 90 70 60
MERIDIAN 75 90 72 86 / 10 70 70 70
VICKSBURG 76 90 72 88 / 30 80 80 60
HATTIESBURG 76 91 73 85 / 10 80 70 90
NATCHEZ 75 91 73 86 / 10 80 70 90
GREENVILLE 75 90 72 89 / 80 50 40 30
GREENWOOD 74 90 72 89 / 70 60 40 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025-034.
LA...NONE.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ075.
19/EC/KP
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