655
FXUS64 KJAN 200550 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1150 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE LIKELY
FOR NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
THE CHANCE FOR IMPACTS FROM WINTER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND FOR AT LEAST
SOME PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA CONTINUE TO INCREASE. IT'S TOO FAR
OUT YET TO HAVE ANY CERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION TYPES OR IMPACTS FOR
ANY LOCATION, BUT THE BROAD PICTURE IS COMING INTO BETTER FOCUS.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL STEER REINFORCING COOL AIR MASSES TOWARD
THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK, WITH ONE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE MIDWEEK GENERATING SOME LIFT AND MOISTENING FOR LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL.
BUT MORE IMPACTFUL IS THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT A STRONG ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE CORE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH WITH 1045MB+ PRESSURE VALUES WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
BEFORE WEAKENING, BUT EXPANSIVE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SPREAD TOWARD
THE SOUTH AND LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRONG NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. TO OUR WEST, A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL MORE LIKELY DETERMINE WHAT DEGREE OF WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS WE
EXPERIENCE HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED
AND PHASED WITH THE NORTHERN JET STREAM, THEN BETTER NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE EXPANSIVE WINTER WEATHER
IMPACT AREA THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH AND MIDSOUTH REGIONS. THAT
SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUN.
ALTERNATIVELY, AS FAVORED BY A SOLUTION LIKE THE LATEST GFS
DETERMINISTIC RUN, THE LOW MAY HANG BACK FARTHER WEST AND
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ORIENTED MORE WEST-EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, AIDED BY SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM THE JET STREAM ALOFT.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT SETUP, THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION (FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND/OR SNOW) IS MOVED
INTO THE HIGH (70-80%) CHANCE RANGE BASED ON THE TRENDS IN THE MODEL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE - ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR. EVEN IN THE PINE BELT OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, THERE IS A
LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO FALL
DURING THE EVENT. THE REINFORCING NATURE OF THE AIR MASS WITH
PRECIPITATION FALLING THROUGH IT WILL LIKELY KEEP A PORTION OF THE
AREA NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
IN THE NORTHERN DELTA, MONDAY MAY EVEN STILL HANG ONTO TEMPS IN THE
30S. WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 10S AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY IN NEXT WEEK, DANGEROUS COLD IS ALSO A HIGH RISK.
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW DAYS WILL POSE RISK TO IN-
GROUND AND EXPOSED ABOVE-GROUND WATER PIPES. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE
TAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO PREPARE FOR THE EXTENDED COLD
WEATHER. EXPECT REFINING OF DETAILS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. CAUTION SHOULD BE ADVISED FOR REFERENCING ONLINE SNOWFALL
MAPS FROM WEATHER MODELS. EVEN IF THE LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS ARE
REASONABLE, MANY OF THESE OUTPUTS RELY ON "STANDARD" SNOW-TO LIQUID
RATIOS OF 10 TO 1. EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS FOR THIS UPCOMING
EVENT CURRENTLY LIMIT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO 2 TO 1 OR 4 TO
1, THUS REDUCING POSSIBLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION TOTALS. /NF/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND LIGHT. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 54 27 54 37 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 53 25 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 54 27 55 38 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 58 30 58 37 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 58 29 58 42 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 48 25 50 35 / 0 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 49 24 51 35 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/SW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page