754
FXUS64 KJAN 291927
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
227 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS THIS WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 105F-110F.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST MS AND SOUTHEAST MS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF QUIET WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT REMAINS EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. SKY
COVER WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS, COMBINED WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS, WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. BECAUSE OF THIS, NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. TUESDAY MORNING WILL START
OFF RELATIVELY QUIET UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO LATE TUESDAY EVENING, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST MS AND SOUTHEAST MS.
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
THIS IS DUE TO SEVERAL DISTURBANCES CAUGHT UP IN EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH ALOFT,
MOVING EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE DAYTIME HIGHS PEAK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AREAWIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING INTO THE MID 90S
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ONGOING DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO EXCEED
ABOVE 105 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST HEAT INDEX READINGS WITH VALUES PEAKING AROUND 110 DEGREES.
A "HEAT ADVISORY" REMAINS IN AFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA,
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AR AND ALL OF OUR NORTHEAST LA
PARISHES, UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY. LATER TONIGHT, THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO
WEDNESDAY.
WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FORECASTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON AFTER TUESDAY, SOME AREAS COULD SEE HEAT
INDICES DROP JUST BELOW 105 DEGREE CRITERIA. REGARDLESS, CONFIDENCE
IN INDICES BETWEEN 105F-110F REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE AREAWIDE
"ELEVATED" RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED
THROUGH THIS WEEK AND INTO THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE BY NEXT WEEK MONDAY. /CR/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS, UNDER SCATTERED TO
BROKEN (SCT-BKN) CUMULUS DECK BETWEEN 2.5-6KFT (TIMING OF
DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING DURING THE MID MORNING TO
AFTERNOON HOURS). SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE NORM (SUSTAINED LESS
THAN 10 AND GUSTS UP TO 15MPH IN DELTA NEAR GLH) WHILE LESS
ELSEWHERE. SURFACE WINDS MAY DECOUPLE NEAR CALM AND VARIABLE INTO
TUESDAY. SHRA AND TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SUBSEQUENT TAF CYCLES
(AFTER END OF 18Z TAF CYCLE) NEAR PIB/HBG. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 95 76 94 / 0 10 10 40
MERIDIAN 76 97 77 95 / 0 10 10 30
VICKSBURG 76 95 77 94 / 0 0 10 50
HATTIESBURG 76 97 76 93 / 0 20 30 40
NATCHEZ 75 96 77 94 / 0 0 10 80
GREENVILLE 75 96 77 96 / 0 0 10 20
GREENWOOD 75 97 77 99 / 0 0 10 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
CR/DC
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