942
FXUS64 KJAN 311610 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1110 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
THE LINE OF SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND IN ITS WAKE
BENIGN CONDITIONS AND INTERMITTENT LIGHT DRIZZLE HAS BEGUN TO TAKE
HOLD. GENERAL CLEARING WILL BE IN STORE AS COOL DRY AIR PUSHES IN
FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL SPURN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET THIS
EVENING. NORTHERLY BREEZY WINDS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
WHICH PASSED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, ALLOWING FOR DAY TIME
HIGHS TO BE MODERATED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S, THROUGH MID 70S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES TREND BETWEEN MID 70S AND LOW 80S./OAJ/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CURRENT RADAR SCANS FROM THIS MORNING SHOW A ORGANIZED LINE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
MS, SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THANKS TO A COLD FRONT TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR CWA. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING: DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH, AND LARGE
HAIL (UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE). TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WEATHER WARNINGS THIS MORNING AS THIS LINE
OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
SEVERE GRAPHIC AND A "ENHANCED" RISK (3 OUT OF 5) WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ADVERTISED FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA THIS MORNING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING FOR OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH
EACH OTHER REGARDING THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS. CURRENT EARLY MORNING GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM
IS STILL SHOWING PWATS OF 1.5-2.0". HREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
STILL SHOWING A STRONG QPF SIGNAL FOR THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MS, NORTH MS, EAST MS, PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS, AND ALL OF OUR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
PARISHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1.25-2.0" ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE "LIMITED"
RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTH TO COVER OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY EXITS OUR FORECAST AREA AND CONTINUES
TO PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS COULD SEE
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS HEADING INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA LOOKING AHEAD INTO TONIGHT. SKY CONDITIONS WILL
START OFF CLEAR HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE STARTING
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH. AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-20 WILL SEE NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S. ELSEWHERE, AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 WILL SEE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET GIVING US A BRIEF LITTLE
BREAK FROM THE RAIN. GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH/RIDGE
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PUSHING A DEVELOPING SFC LOW TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST REGION LOOKING AHEAD WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WHEN OUR OUR NEXT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD OCCUR.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS STARTING TO GET A LITTLE BETTER IN AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER THERE ARE
STILL INCONSISTENCIES THAT REMAIN REGARDING THE TIMING. FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SEVERE GRAPHIC FOR THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WE GET CLOSER. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE LATE WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS CHANCES LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NORTH OF OUR CWA. /CR/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR CONDITIONS AND WILL
REMAIN SO FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH NO OTHER NOTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THE TAF PERIOD./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 51 82 68 89 / 0 10 0 20
MERIDIAN 49 81 66 87 / 0 10 10 10
VICKSBURG 51 83 69 89 / 0 0 0 30
HATTIESBURG 57 85 68 88 / 0 10 0 20
NATCHEZ 56 82 69 88 / 0 10 0 20
GREENVILLE 48 77 68 86 / 0 0 10 60
GREENWOOD 48 78 69 88 / 0 0 10 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
CR/CR/OAJ
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