537
FXUS64 KJAN 201118 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
518 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE THAT A MIX OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE LIKELY
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT:
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AN ADDITIONAL DAY AS
LONGWAVE TROUGHING PUSH COLD AIR THROUGH THE REGION. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP HIGHS (RANGING IN THE 50S) AND LOWS (RANGING FROM THE 20S
IN THE NORTHEAST TO UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST) SLIGHTLY BELOW TO
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. SURFACE HIGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST,
ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES (UP TO 15%) WILL RETURN FOR PARTS OF
THE MS DELTA LATE TONIGHT. /SW/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST REMAINS
THE INCREASING CHANCE FOR IMPACTS FROM WINTER WEATHER AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY CERTAINTY OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES OR IMPACTS FOR ANY LOCATION, BUT THE BROAD PICTURE IS COMING
INTO BETTER FOCUS. LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL STEER REINFORCING COOL
AIR MASSES TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK, WITH
ONE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LEADING TO LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
BEGINNING IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE CHANCE OF RAIN
RETURNS WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
MODELS AGREE THAT A STRONG ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE CORE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WITH 1045MB+ PRESSURE VALUES WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BEFORE WEAKENING, BUT EXPANSIVE ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND LINGER INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST SOME WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR (FREEZING RAIN, SLEET,
AND/OR SNOW) IS IN THE HIGH(70-80%) CHANCE RANGE; ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. EVEN IN THE PINE BELT OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, THERE IS A LOW(20-30%) CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO FALL DURING THE EVENT. THE REINFORCING
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING THROUGH IT WILL
LIKELY KEEP A PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE NORTHERN DELTA, TEMPERATURES
MONDAY MAY HANG ONTO TEMPS IN THE 30S. WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 10S AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY IN NEXT
WEEK, DANGEROUS COLD IS ALSO A HIGH RISK. TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING FOR A FEW DAYS WILL POSE RISK TO IN-GROUND AND EXPOSED
ABOVE-GROUND WATER PIPES. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS TO PREPARE FOR THE EXTENDED COLD WEATHER, INCLUDING POWER
OUTAGES. EXPECT REFINING OF DETAILS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. CAUTION SHOULD BE ADVISED FOR REFERENCING ONLINE SNOWFALL
MAPS FROM WEATHER MODELS. EVEN IF THE LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS ARE
REASONABLE, MANY OF THESE OUTPUTS RELY ON "STANDARD" SNOW-TO LIQUID
RATIOS OF 10 TO 1. EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS FOR THIS UPCOMING
EVENT CURRENTLY LIMIT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO 2 TO 1 OR 4 TO
1, THUS REDUCING POSSIBLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION TOTALS. /NF/22/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 54 37 59 49 / 0 0 50 80
MERIDIAN 51 32 58 45 / 0 0 20 70
VICKSBURG 56 38 58 47 / 0 0 70 90
HATTIESBURG 58 37 66 51 / 0 0 20 50
NATCHEZ 59 42 61 51 / 0 0 50 70
GREENVILLE 50 35 51 43 / 0 10 90 80
GREENWOOD 51 35 54 44 / 0 0 80 90
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SW/22/22
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