828
FXUS64 KJAN 142336
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
636 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- WARMING TREND MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH INCREASING HEAT STRESS A
CONCERN, ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY. WITH PWATS OF AROUND
2.2 INCHES ALONG WITH THE UPPER LOW, WE ARE ADVERTISING AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEAKEN. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHANCES OF STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF I-20, BUT EXPECT FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS TO BE
LIMITED./15/
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (MONDAY): RIDGING ALOFT WILL AGAIN
REASSERT ITSELF OVER THE REGION. WHILE THIS WILL LESSEN THE
OVERALL RAIN CHANCES (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND LIKELY ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE REGION UNTIL SUNDAY TO MONDAY) ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, THE TRADE-OFF CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A RETURN TO HOT
HUMID CONDITIONS AS HIGHS AREAWIDE EVENTUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE
MID 90S NEXT WEEKEND. LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM DURING THIS
PERIOD, SOME 3F TO 6F ABOVE (73F TO 76F). INCREASING HEAT STRESS
STILL LOOKS TO BE A CONCERN. HWO HEAT GRAPHICS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED, LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. WITH ONGOING RAIN
CONCERNS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, HOLDING OFF INTRODUCTION IN HWO
GRAPHICS FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
CYCLES. /DC/EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING, BUT WILL DECREASE IN MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW
STRATUS DECK AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
MS AND SOUTHEAST AR OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. SCATTERED
SHRA AND TS ACTIVITY ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF
THESE CONCERNS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WIND. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 70 88 71 91 / 50 30 20 0
MERIDIAN 70 88 70 91 / 50 20 20 0
VICKSBURG 70 88 71 91 / 30 40 20 0
HATTIESBURG 71 90 72 94 / 20 10 20 0
NATCHEZ 70 89 71 92 / 10 30 10 0
GREENVILLE 71 87 71 91 / 60 60 10 0
GREENWOOD 70 87 71 91 / 40 60 20 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
15/DC/EC/DL
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