825
FXUS64 KJAN 260522 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1222 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO VERY DRY GROUND CONDITIONS AND LOW
HUMIDITY EACH DAY.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
REST OF TONIGHT...
QUIET AND DRY EVENING WITH PLEASANT AND CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. WATER VAPOR/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE MS RIVER TO GULF COAST, WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
BROAD SUBSIDENCE AND DRY THERMAL PROFILES (I.E. GOES EAST TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND REGIONAL SOUNDINGS REMAIN AROUND HALF INCH)
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE GULF COAST. SEASONABLE LOWS REMAIN ON TAP
(44F TO 53F). BASED ON FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING, NUDGED LOWS
SLIGHTLY DOWN TOWARDS LOWER PERCENTILE (10TH) OF BLENDED GUIDANCE.
HIGH CLOUDS MAY TAMPER DOWN SOME IN THE WEST BUT EAST OF INTERSTATE
55 SHOULD RADIATE EFFICIENTLY. UPDATES ARE OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
THROUGH THE WEEK...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK: SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR
REGION IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF (NO) WEATHER HEADING INTO THE NEW
WEEK. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST US EXTENDS ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS SUBSIDENT, DRY WEATHER
REGIME WITH LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY, AND PERHAPS LONGER DEPENDING ON WHICH LONGER
RANGE GUIDANCE BEST VERIFIES.
HAVE EXTENDED THE "ELEVATED" FIRE DANGER GRAPHIC ACCORDINGLY AS
LOW HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE STRESSED AND DRIED
OUT VEGETATION TRANSITIONING OUT OF THE GROWING SEASON. THE RIDGE
WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY AND MONDAY, AND THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY BE
SUPPRESSED BY THE WESTERLIES THEREAFTER, BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE, THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY.
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE GENERAL IDEA IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR AT LEAST
SOME MOIST RETURN FLOW AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH A
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT THAT COULD BRING AT LEAST LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE
NEXT SUNDAY. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS 7 DAYS (~168 HOURS) OUT,
AS SUCH THERE IS A LOT OF DIVERGENCE IN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR UPDATES AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND AND
TIMING/INTENSITY DETAILS CAN BE HAVE MORE CERTAINTY AND MORE
CONVERGENT SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS OF ANY RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES
FOR THE UPCOMING HALLOWEEN DAY/NIGHT MAY PUSH 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL. /OAJ/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
AS AN OVERCAST/BROKEN DECK OF CIRRUS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION, VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT AROUND 3
KNOTS. THESE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS FROM THE EAST
AND EAST SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 80 52 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 77 47 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 81 52 82 52 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 81 49 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 80 54 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 79 53 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 79 49 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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