691
FXUS64 KJAN 030551 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1151 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
- COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN EVENTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BUT
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO ERODE OVERNIGHT. A
FEW PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS EARLY
MORNING. A COLD NIGHT IS ON TAP, WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID
20S./15/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN STREAMING NORTHWEST INTO THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS REASON, IDEAL
RATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AREN'T EXPECTED IN THIS PARTICULAR
AIRMASS. AS A RESULT, I DID BUMP UP LOWS TONIGHT FROM NBM SUGGESTED
GUIDANCE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. STILL, A CHILLY
NIGHT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AS LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, DUE TO ITS
SCARCITY AND SHORT DURATION, NO IMPACT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WHILE THE SUN WILL PEAK IN AND OUT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY,
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60. COME LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO THE PLAINS, WILL RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING.
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT,
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY EAST. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
DURING THIS TIME, WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY
DEVELOPING AND LIFTING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWEST JOURNEY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BOTH CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME CURRENTLY LOOK TO RANGE FROM
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THREE INCHES, WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.
AFTER SATURDAY, MODELS ARE CURRENTLY AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO QUICKLY AFFECT THE AREA IN THE
SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THEREFORE, I'LL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY, BUT KEEP MONDAY DRY FOR
THE MOMENT. /19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
MVFR FLIGHT CONDITION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRIEFLY REDUCING CONDITIONS TO IFR. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, BRINGING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO VFR. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 43 27 57 38 / 0 0 0 50
MERIDIAN 43 25 56 34 / 10 0 0 30
VICKSBURG 41 27 55 39 / 0 0 0 70
HATTIESBURG 46 30 60 40 / 0 0 0 60
NATCHEZ 42 27 59 41 / 0 0 0 80
GREENVILLE 40 27 49 38 / 0 0 0 50
GREENWOOD 39 25 53 36 / 0 0 0 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19/SW
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