658
FXUS64 KJAN 011125
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
525 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED INTO THE NEW
YEAR.
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY:
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED HEADING
INTO TODAY WITH THE AREA REMAINING UNDER THE CONTROL OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE 60S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE WARMER THAN RECENTLY DUE TO CLOUDS AND MOISTURE, ONLY DROPPING
INTO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE SOME LIMITED THERMODYNAMIC
INSTABILITY, 500-800 J/KG MUCAPE, COULD DEVELOP. ATOP THE RATHER
SHALLOW SURFACE MOISTURE, OWING TO LIMITED RESIDENCE TIME OVER WATER
OF THE INCOMING PREFRONTAL MOISTURE PLUME, A REMNANT CAPPING
INVERSION WITH POOR LAPSE RATES ABOVE WILL LIMIT SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE
IN THE AREAS WHERE THE BETTER COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY IS LIKELY. THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MEANINGFUL
UPGRADES IN THE RISK OUTLOOK BEYOND THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
STRONGER STORM OR TWO WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. SHOULD LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL THAN ESTIMATED OR THE MID
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BE A BIT COOLER (EITHER DUE TO UNDERESTIMATED
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT OR A GREATER AMOUNT OF LIFTING THAN IS
EXPECTED) , IT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A ROGUE
THUNDERSTORM NEAR OR SOUTH OF I-20 COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS WITH SOME RISK FOR A DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS OUTCOME DOES
NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR LIKELY BUT CAN'T TOTALLY BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE QUALITY OF SHEAR THAT EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE TIME
(>200 0-1KM SRH AND 50-60 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR). SHOULD ANY
VERY LOW END RISK MATERIALIZE FOR A BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO, THAT
WOULD LIKELY BE FOUND NEARER THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE
ALONGSIDE SIMILAR, CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND 75-85 DEGREE
CRITICAL ANGLES.
OVERALL, THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FOR ALMOST EVERYONE ARE LIKELY TO BE
0.1-0.25" OF RAIN AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH LITTLE
FANFARE OTHERWISE.
THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING
AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. QUIET CONDITIONS THEN ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW MODERATES THE TEMPERATURES TO A
BIT ABOVE EARLY JANUARY NORMALS-- DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 60S/70S F
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S/50S F. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BY LATE
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY SW
WIND. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 67 49 71 54 / 0 0 40 50
MERIDIAN 66 45 68 55 / 0 0 50 80
VICKSBURG 68 50 74 52 / 0 10 40 20
HATTIESBURG 69 47 74 60 / 0 0 30 70
NATCHEZ 68 50 76 55 / 0 10 20 20
GREENVILLE 65 50 66 48 / 0 10 50 30
GREENWOOD 66 49 66 49 / 0 10 70 60
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/CR
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