647
FXUS64 KJAN 220552
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1152 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM A
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 857 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
REST OF TONIGHT...
RAP/WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS INDICATES SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH BROAD RAIN SHIELD ACROSS THE REGION. MOIST
ASCENT, COMBINED WITH PWS AROUND AN INCH OR SO, ARE THE IMPETUS
FOR ONGOING COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS. THIS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BUT GRADUALLY DWINDLE FROM WEST TO EAST.
HOWEVER, ASCENT AND MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST SO RAIN CHANCES
WON'T COMPLETELY CLEAR INTO THURSDAY. FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS JUST
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST, SO SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR AT THE VERY LEAST
IN THE DELTA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVERNIGHT,
BUT WITH SOME DRYING ALOFT IN THE DELTA, SOME MAY CLEAR IN THIS
AREA. HREF DENSE FOG PROBS INDICATE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FROM
SOUTHEAST AR AND AREAS IN NORTHWEST MS (BOLIVAR, WASHINGTON,
SUNFLOWER, LEFLORE). WITH THIS BEING A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR AND
POTENTIALLY ONLY LASTING THROUGH SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK,
THINK WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY OR HWO GRAPHIC. LOWS WILL
BE SEASONABLY WARM TONIGHT (40F TO 55F). UPDATES ARE OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING HAS SETTLED IN OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES AND IS NOT PROJECTED TO SHIFT MUCH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
SO. THERE IS CURRENTLY A MINOR SHORT-WAVE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
LARGER LONGWAVE PATTERN IMPACTING THE AREA, CAUSING SOME SHOWERS AND
CLOUD COVERAGE. RAIN RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT, WITH
TOTALS RANGING FROM 0.00 TO 0.25" ACROSS ALL SITES. WE ARE GOING TO
SEE A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH TOMORROW AS OUR WIND PATTERN
SHIFTS FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WARMING AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM, WILL ADD FUEL FOR THE UPCOMING
WINTER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
OVERALL, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS AS A POTENT WINTER STORM WILL LIKELY BRING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO OUR CWA IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN,
SLEET, AND SNOW ALONG WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL STEER REINFORCING COOL AIR
MASSES TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. THURSDAY
MORNING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS DROPPING OUT OF CANADA WILL FULLY SETTLE
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE WINTRY MIX
PRECIPITATION WILL END SUNDAY EVENING, THE DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT'S A BIT EARLY TO
MAKE SWEEPING DECLARATIVE STATEMENTS ABOUT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT TO
PROVIDE SOME RANGE ON ICE, OUR NORTHWESTERN HALF, (AS A LINE BISECTS
FROM NATCHEZ TO COLUMBUS) IS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING TO SEE THE
GREATEST IMPACTS/ACCUMULATIONS. AS A REMINDER: SPECIFIC AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS COULD STILL CHANGE AT THIS TIME, AS WE ARE A FEW DAYS OUT
FROM THIS WINTER STORM EVENT.
LATEST GRAPHICS AND MESSAGING ARE BASED ON A REASONABLE
RANGE OF POSSIBLE ICE/SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND REASONABLE
EARLIEST ONSET TIMES FOR WINTER WEATHER ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
THE CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WITH 1045MB+ PRESSURE VALUES WILL
SETTLE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BEFORE WEAKENING, BUT THIS EXPANSIVE
FRIGID AIRMASS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE SOUTH AND LINGER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. TO OUR WEST, A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE
PACIFIC OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL INFLUENCE WHAT DEGREE OF
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS WE EXPERIENCE HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TRENDING TOWARD A CONSENSUS ON THE SCENARIO
FOR BETTER NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND THEREFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH AND
MIDSOUTH REGIONS. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES FOR HOW PROGRESSIVE
THE SYSTEM WILL BE (AS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST LOWS AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR), BUT SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT IS THERE TO EXTEND THE THREAT FOR
WINTRY PRECIP FALLING INTO THE MORNING AT LEAST ON SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT SETUP, THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST 1/4 INCH
(ICE STORM WARNING CRITERIA) HAS INCREASED TO 50-80% FOR AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. REASONABLE UPPER
LIMITS INDICATE AROUND A 20-30% CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS ICE STORM
THREAT IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR EXPANDING THE WINTER STORM IMPACT
AREAS ON LOCAL GRAPHICS AND IN MESSAGING.
NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR ANY SITES IN OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA AT THIS TIME.
THE REINFORCING NATURE OF THE AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING
THROUGH IT WILL LIKELY KEEP A PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, AND EVEN SOME DELTA
AREAS MONDAY OR TUESDAY. WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 10S
AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY IN NEXT WEEK, DANGEROUS COLD IS
ALSO A HIGH RISK. TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW DAYS WILL
POSE RISK TO IN-GROUND AND EXPOSED ABOVE-GROUND WATER PIPES.
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO PREPARE FOR
THE EXTENDED COLD WEATHER. EXPECT REFINING OF DETAILS, ESPECIALLY
ONCE THE AIR MASS HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. CAUTION
SHOULD BE ADVISED FOR REFERENCING ONLINE SNOWFALL MAPS FROM WEATHER
MODELS. EVEN IF THE LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS ARE REASONABLE, MANY OF
THESE OUTPUTS RELY ON "STANDARD" SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 10 TO 1.
EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT CURRENTLY
LIMIT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO 2 TO 1 OR 4 TO 1, THUS
REDUCING POSSIBLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THAT COULD BE ACHIEVED FROM THE
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR NEXT WEEK, SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE
FRIGID IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82 WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, AND SOUTHWARDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-
15F, WITH FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SEEING 20F. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT'S LOWS DO BOUNCE BACK INTO THE TEENS FOR AREAS NORTH
OF I-20, AND RANGE FROM 20-25 TO THE SOUTH.
BUCKLE UP FOR A VERY COLD WEEK, WE ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE A REBOUND
INTO SEASONAL NORMS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK./OAJ/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
CURRENTLY A MIX OF MVFR TO IFR, WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS TAF SITES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, THOUGH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD DECKS WITH IFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
NORTHERN TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10MPH./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 51 61 49 57 / 90 30 50 40
MERIDIAN 48 59 47 57 / 90 50 60 40
VICKSBURG 48 60 46 54 / 90 30 50 40
HATTIESBURG 53 69 54 67 / 70 40 40 40
NATCHEZ 52 64 51 60 / 90 20 40 40
GREENVILLE 42 52 39 44 / 50 10 30 40
GREENWOOD 44 55 41 48 / 80 20 40 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-025>038-040>044-047>049-053.
LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.
DC/OAJ/KP
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