061  
FXUS64 KJAN 210558 AAA  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
1258 AM CDT SAT SEP 21 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z TAF DISCUSSION:  
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHER THAN A  
SOME LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS AROUND 5-7KFT & HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS, NO  
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF  
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-10MPH, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT INTO  
THE EVENING. /DC/  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE EVENING BUT THERE ARE  
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE NORTH WEST CORNER OF THE  
REGION BUT THAT TOO WILL DIMINISH WITHIN THE HOUR. OTHER THAN  
THAT, EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.  
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.  
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE  
NEEDED./JNE/  
 
PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW:  
 
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY:  
 
THE MID LEVELS WILL PRETTY MUCH REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH TOMORROW  
WITH RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MS/AL. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, AIRMASS  
CHANGE CONTINUES FROM EAST TO WEST AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT,  
OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS CONTINUES MOVING WEST. TO THE EAST  
OF THE BOUNDARY, MUCH DRIER AIR WAS MOVING IN WITH DEWPOINTS IN  
THE 50S AND 60S. TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY, DEWPOINTS REMAINED  
IN THE LOWER 70S WITH ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH SOME CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE  
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES WEST THIS EVENING, THE MAJORITY WILL DIMINISH  
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY  
MORNING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND PLEASANT AS LOWS SETTLE  
OUT MOSTLY IN THE 60S. HOWEVER, BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE MODELS  
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT OVER THE  
FAR SOUTHWEST, ENOUGH SO FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BE A  
POSSIBILITY THERE. /GG/  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:  
 
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA  
MOSTLY DRY TO START THE NEW WEEK, HOWEVER THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO  
FLATTEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY  
IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK FRONT TO DIP INTO THE  
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND COULD HELP TO FOCUS AT LEAST A  
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OUR FORECAST  
AREA. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK THOUGH, THE RIDGE WILL  
STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST  
AND THEN UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE OVERALL PATTERN AT THE  
END OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST  
AND STEEP RIDGING OVER THE EAST COAST, WITH DEEPER MOISTURE  
ADVECTION SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS  
THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS MAINLY OUR NORTHEAST/CENTRAL LOUISIANA  
PARISHES AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS COUNTIES BEFORE THE UPPER-  
LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND LESSENS PRECIP CHANCES.  
/NF/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 66 89 67 91 / 0 1 0 3  
MERIDIAN 64 88 64 90 / 0 0 0 2  
VICKSBURG 67 90 68 93 / 1 5 1 3  
HATTIESBURG 66 89 66 91 / 1 3 1 6  
NATCHEZ 68 88 69 90 / 2 17 3 5  
GREENVILLE 67 90 68 92 / 1 1 0 4  
GREENWOOD 66 89 67 91 / 0 0 0 4  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DC  
 
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