264
FXUS64 KJAN 110601
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
101 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2024
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2024
QUIET EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT TO CALM GRADIENT WINDS &
DRY, SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW, LOCKING IN CONTINUED ATMOSPHERIC
DRYNESS/PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWS) BETWEEN THE 10TH TO 25TH
PERCENTILE (0.6-0.8 INCHES). RAP/UPPER AIR & GOES EAST WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES & PROGGED TO
SINK SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULDN'T INDUCE CLOUDS. GLOBAL
CONSENSUS MODELS INDICATE SFC HIGH ANALYZED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
IS PROGGED TO SINK INTO THE APPALACHIANS, KEEPING LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT & SFC RIDGING AROUND. LOWS WILL FALL NEAR SEASONABLE
NORMS (52-58F). HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT A LOW-LYING/SHELTERED
AREA DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S AGAIN, WHICH HAS SUPPORT IN THE
LOW END OF PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE. UPDATES ARE OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2024
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...
A PROLONGED DRY PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED WITH A PERSISTENT NW FLOW
REGIME. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR WORSENING FIRE RISK WITH
DRYING FUELS AND A DRY FRONT WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
FOR THE FIRST HALF, TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS, UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, AS RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY WILL FAVOR INCREASED FIRE CONDITIONS AGAIN, MAINLY NORTH OF I-
20. HAVE INTRODUCED A GRAPHIC IN HWO HIGHLIGHTING THIS. BY MONDAY,
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND DRIVES A POTENT DRY FRONT INTO THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. VERY DRY AIR PLUNGES INTO THE REGION, PWAT
0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CONTINUED AND INCREASED
FIRE CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL AS RH DROPS INTO 25 TO
30% RANGE IN THE PRESENCE OF A 6 TO 7MB PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE HWO
GRAPHIC HIGHLIGHTING FIRE RISK MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
TUESDAY TO COVER OTHER AREAS OF THE CWA.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MID NEXT WEEK, A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES IN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL REINFORCE DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
MAINLY 70S, WITH SOME HIGHS IN THE 60S POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S, WITH LOW 40S IN THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE. I WOULD NOT RULE OUT UPPER 30S IN THIS AREA IN SOME SPOTS.
IT IS WHEN THIS HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK THAT WE
FINALLY START TO RETURN SOME MOISTURE TO THE AREA AS OUR FLOW TURNS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOME PWAT INCREASING TO 1 INCH OVER THE
PINE BELT. HOWEVER, THE MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE FOCUSED
OVER THE PLAINS, WELL TO THE WEST, AND WILL SUPPRESS MOST MOISTURE
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AS SUCH, RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL NOT
EXPECTED. /SAS/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2024
VFR CONDITIONS & LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WITH NO GUSTS WILL PREVAIL
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 84 56 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 83 53 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 86 56 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 85 54 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 86 57 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 86 56 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 86 56 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SAS20/DC/OAJ
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