197
FXUS64 KJAN 201155 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
655 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING AN
ELEVATED (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) FLASH FLOOD THREAT TODAY.
- WE WILL BE MONITORING A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN FOR ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOOD AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
- INCREASINGLY DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT STRESS COULD RETURN FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE INTERFACE REGION BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CONUS. NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE PROMINENT FEATURES WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS STORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH MCV ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN
A LARGER DOMAIN OF CYCLONIC FLOW. THE MESOSCALE ASCENT INTERACTING
WITH AN UNSTABLE (MOST UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG) AND VERY
MOIST (PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 2.2 INCHES) AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS. EVOLUTION OF THE THE THREAT TODAY IS CLEARLY CENTERED
ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT BECOMES
MORE NEBULOUS AS WE GO LATER INTO THE DAY/AFTERNOON. THE CEILING
ON THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS NOT AS HIGH AS IN RECENT DAYS AND WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF SIGNIFICANT FF CONCERNS IN THE HWO
GRAPHICS FOR NOW. GOING INTO SUNDAY, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DISORGANIZED AND DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES CENTERED ON
MAINLY THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA WHILE THE RIDGE BRIEFLY EXERTS
MORE INFLUENCE.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY: GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED STRONGER AND MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE WESTERLIES, AND THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
STORM THREATS WITH ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING/SEVERE
WEATHER. AS OF NOW, IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY OF THESE THREATS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANT, AND LIMITED/MARGINAL CATEGORIES SHOULD SUFFICE FOR
THE MOST PART. WITH THAT SAID, LOCAL MESOSCALE INFLUENCES AND
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL DRIVE ANY FLASH FLOOD AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS ON A DAILY BASIS, SO MONITOR FOR UPDATES AS WE GO
THROUGH TIME THIS UPCOMING WEEK. IT IS ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THAT
HEAT MAY BUILD TO ELEVATED THREAT LEVELS MONDAY AHEAD OF STORMS
THAT MOVE IN LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING, AND THIS WOULD RESULT
IN THE NEED FOR MESSAGING AS WE GET CLOSER. GOING FORWARD, HEAT
STRESS COULD BE A LINGERING ISSUE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, WITH AREAS FARTHER NORTH A CONCERN IF THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT
NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE RIDGE AXIS FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. /EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SHOWERS/STORMS
REDEVELOPED NEAR WESTERN SITES AND STATUS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT DURING THE MORNING. SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 19Z-21Z. AFTER
21Z, FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVED TO VFR. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 86 73 88 75 / 80 20 50 0
MERIDIAN 85 72 87 75 / 90 20 60 10
VICKSBURG 86 74 89 76 / 70 20 50 0
HATTIESBURG 88 75 88 76 / 80 30 50 0
NATCHEZ 88 75 90 77 / 70 30 50 0
GREENVILLE 85 73 89 76 / 70 10 60 20
GREENWOOD 85 72 89 76 / 80 20 70 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ031>060.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
EC/SW
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