377
FXUS64 KJAN 131114 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
614 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND.
- "LIMITED THREAT" FOR FLASH FLOODING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: HEAT AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM. A RATHER FLAT MID LEVEL 591DAM RIDGE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG WITH A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PER THE 00Z SAT JAN SOUNDING OUR PWATS WERE GREATER
THAN AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS. OUR PWATS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR TWO INCHES TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. AS OUR TEMPERATURES
CLIMB UP INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
105F OVER MOST OF OUR CWA WITH THE HIGHEST PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE HEATING OF OUR MOIST AIRMASS
WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL
SEE A DIURNAL TREND AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BUT, A SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE IN PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
TONIGHT. /22/
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. A "HEAT ADVISORY" MAY BE
EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, BETTER RAIN CHANCES IN ADDITION TO
MORE CLOUD COVER, COULD HALT THE EXTENSION OR RESULT IN SOME
MODIFICATION TO THE CURRENT LAYOUT OF AFFECTED COUNTIES/PARISHES
IN THE ADVISED AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAT TAPERS OFF DURING THE START OF THE WORK WEEK,
MOISTURE WILL BE AT AN ABUNDANCE ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MEANDERING ABOUT THE YUCATAN AND THE
WESTERN GULF, WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN
2.25-2.5 INCHES. AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE
NATION'S MID-SECTION AND INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, A FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT
SLOWS/STALLS AND EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
AND POTENTIALLY INTO THURSDAY, MULTIPLE BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN IS
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENTLY A "LIMITED THREAT" FOR FLASH FLOODING IS BEING ADVERTISED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME. COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION LOOKS TO RESULT IN HIGH RAINFALL
RATES IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME, ALONG WITH THE TRAINING OF
CONVECTION WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. THIS IS STILL A FEW
DAYS OUT. THEREFORE, PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST
AS ADJUSTMENTS TO THE THREAT AREA WILL LIKELY BE MADE. /19/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN SHRA/TSRA WL AFFECT THE NE AND EAST MS
TAF SITES SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 94 76 93 73 / 10 0 30 90
MERIDIAN 95 76 95 73 / 30 10 20 80
VICKSBURG 94 77 93 72 / 10 0 40 90
HATTIESBURG 94 76 94 75 / 10 10 10 50
NATCHEZ 95 76 94 74 / 0 0 10 90
GREENVILLE 94 78 91 70 / 20 10 50 80
GREENWOOD 95 78 91 70 / 20 10 60 80
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-
035-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>065-072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ009-016-024>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ075.
22/19/22
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