182
FXUS64 KJAN 071006
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
406 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT TO MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH
WIND AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT SINCE
JANUARY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY/ RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BACK ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF A
LOW OVER THE BAJA REGION TODAY WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH RACES EASTWARD AND ESSENTIALLY STRANDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR CWA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY,
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT TO OUR EAST WILL TRY TO HANG TOUGH OVER
OUR CWA BUT DEEP MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE. CURRENT REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE MOST OF THE STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE WELL TO
OUR WEST OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. THE LATEST HRRR
IS STILL AMONG THE FASTEST MODELS TO MOVE THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR
DELTA BY MID MORNING WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE MOVES THE
ACTIVITY INTO OUR NORTHWEST MOST ZONES BY NOON. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE STORM THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOLLOWED BY HAIL BUT A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS 'SLIGHT RISK' AREA
COVERS OUR CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR THREE SOUTHEAST MOST
COUNTIES THAT ARE IN A 'MARGINAL RISK' AS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED THIS EVENING AND THE FARTHER SOUTH THE
ACTIVITY SPREADS. AS THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLOW AND EVENTUALLY
STALLING COLD FRONT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE CWA IS ABNORMALLY DRY TO IN A
DROUGHT, SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL, BUT A COUPLE
INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME COULD LEAD TO RUNOFF
ISSUES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AND POUR DRAINAGE AREAS. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20
TODAY AND SHIFT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS EVENING. THE GRAPHIC
FOR LIMITED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AND
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NEARLY ZONAL DOWNSTREAM OF THE CUTOFF
LOW OVER BAJA.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MONDAY AS IT BEGINS LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. A FEW SUBTLE DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT EAST MONDAY
BUT THEN OPEN UP AND EJECT OUT MORE RAPIDLY TUESDAY. RIDGING SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN BACK OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY AND THIS LOOKS
TO BE A DRY DAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES START INCREASING FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ONCE WAS THE CUTOFF
LOW. INITIALLY HEIGHTS LOOK RATHER HIGH BUT A POTENT NORTHERN
DISTURBANCE WILL COME IN PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN TROUGH AND BRING A
THREAT OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A CLEARING FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND BY THURSDAY A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER
OUR REGION. FRIDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING
WITH LOW TO MID 40S AREAWIDE. /22/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AS LOW STRATUS MIGRATES NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF.
SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AROUND 18Z
SATURDAY, FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FURTHER DETERIORATE AS
TSRA/SHRA STORMS MOVES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
/SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 84 63 76 62 / 90 80 80 10
MERIDIAN 83 62 76 61 / 70 80 80 20
VICKSBURG 84 62 76 62 / 90 80 70 10
HATTIESBURG 84 66 78 64 / 70 70 90 20
NATCHEZ 85 64 77 64 / 90 80 80 10
GREENVILLE 78 61 70 60 / 90 80 40 10
GREENWOOD 81 62 73 61 / 90 80 50 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/22/SW
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