947
FXUS64 KJAN 191914
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
214 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT STRESS WILL BUILD BACK IN AREAWIDE THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A FRONT WITH DRIER AIR,
LOWER DEWPOINTS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES/LESS HEAT INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
THROUGH SUNDAY: LOCAL RADARS WERE SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHEAST MOST COUNTIES. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHEAST BEFORE THE CONVECTION ENDS BY EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY CLIMBING IN THE UPPER
90S AND MAY TOP OUT AS RECORD HIGHS AT MANY OF THE CLIMATE SITES.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A WEAKENED 593DAM HIGH
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED
A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE EASTERN GULF. TOGETHER THESE FEATURES
WILL INCREASE MOISTURE JUST EAST OF OUR CWA. THIS MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER OUR EASTERN MOST COUNTIES AGAIN SUNDAY. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE AGAIN WITH ENOUGH HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-1108F OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA SUNDAY WHILE LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH 105F IN OUR
EAST./22/
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT RECORD BREAKING HEAT
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE IS A SUBTLE MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO
THIS, WHICH WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE LOW 70S. THIS
SHOULD BOTH INCREASE DANGEROUS HEAT AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING MONDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL
RANGE FROM 100-105+, WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WEST OF I-55. AN
ELEVATED HEAT GRAPHIC CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED. WOULD NOT RULE
OUT A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. FURTHER EAST,
WHERE LOW (20-30%) RAIN CHANCES ARE FOCUSED, INDICES ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA (105), BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A LIMITED
HEAT THREAT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, IN
PERHAPS THE FIRST SIGN OF THE COOL SEASON, WILL NOT BE STRICTLY
DIURNAL, AND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SINCE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STILL WEAK, THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH OVER THE COURSE OF
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE MIDLEVEL
HIGH. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
TIMING OF THE MAIN JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE, BUT
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT, AND IT MAKES METEOROLOGICAL SENSE, THAT
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE REINFORCED IN ITS WAKE LATE NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH A CONTINUATION
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /SAS/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 10
MERIDIAN 72 98 72 98 / 10 10 10 20
VICKSBURG 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 10
HATTIESBURG 72 98 73 97 / 0 20 10 20
NATCHEZ 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 10
GREENVILLE 75 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 74 100 74 99 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ026>033-035>058.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SAS20/22
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