217
FXUS64 KJAN 300941
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
441 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
- A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD MATERIALIZE THIS
WEEKEND, BUT THE FORECAST FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
A LOW TO MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION, EARLY MORNING FOG
COULD BE A CONCERN IN THE PINE BELT REGION, BUT GUIDANCE PROBS FOR
SIGNIFICANT VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE LOW (<20%) AT THIS TIME WITH THE
MAIN CONCERN BEING FOR LOW STRATUS CEILINGS VS FOG.
AS WE NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY REGION MAY
MAKE A DENT IN THE RIDGE AND HELP TO INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SOME IN OUR AREA (THU-FRI). A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND AND
BRING CONTINUED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY
HOWEVER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH AS GREATER ASCENT AND
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ARE FORECAST TO PEAK TO OUR WEST IN THE
ARKLATEX REGION. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS TAF
SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 5 KTS DURING THE EVENING.
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07-
12Z MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z MONDAY. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 83 64 83 64 / 20 0 60 10
MERIDIAN 82 62 82 63 / 30 10 60 10
VICKSBURG 84 64 85 64 / 20 0 50 0
HATTIESBURG 82 65 82 65 / 50 10 80 10
NATCHEZ 84 64 85 64 / 30 10 70 0
GREENVILLE 82 64 85 64 / 10 0 20 10
GREENWOOD 84 65 85 65 / 10 10 40 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/SW
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