211
FXUS64 KJAN 142338 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
638 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A VARIETY OF IMPACTS TO THE
AREA AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS.
- STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO PRECEDE AND FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME.
- MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING IN MONDAY WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT HARD FREEZE
THREAT TO MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
UPDATES TODAY: NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
SEVERE WEATHER MESSAGING OTHER THAN SLIGHT TIMING/RISK
ADJUSTMENTS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TODAY WERE TO 1) RAISE
THE WIND THREAT LEVEL TO ELEVATED IN THE THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
REGION FOR SUN-MON, AND TO 2) INCLUDE AN EXTREME RISK FOR THE MON
NIGHT FREEZE RISK IN NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO A MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO EARLY SEASON FRUIT CROPS.
IN THE NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT AS IT MOVES EAST, WIND WILL BEGIN TO PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND BRING AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. A STOUT UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR NEXT ROUND OF HAZARDS.
CONCERNING THE WIND THREAT: STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND RISES
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN A STRONG GRADIENT WIND THREAT BOTH AHEAD OF AND IN
THE WAKE OF STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES, WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE DELTA REGION, WHERE CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR SUSTAINED WIND >
25 MPH AND GUSTS > 40 MPH HAVE INCREASED TO WELL ABOVE 50%. IT IS
POSSIBLE WE'LL EVENTUALLY NEED AN EXPANSION EASTWARD FOR THE
MONDAY WIND THREAT AND WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THIS NEED.
CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT: THE STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR, ALONG
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WILL
SUPPORT A FORCED SQUALL LINE RACING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE ENHANCED SEVERE RISK WAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TODAY. THE GREATER
SEVERE THREAT AREA LOOKS TO BE OVER OUR NORTHWEST WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/FORCING WILL BE GREATEST, AND WHERE
UPDRAFT INTENSITY AND LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SEEM STRONG ENOUGH IN
THE GUIDANCE FOR SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY WITH ANY
SEGMENTS ORTHOGONAL TO THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTOR, AND WITH
DISCRETE CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE, WHICH SEEMS
MOST PROBABLE IN NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IT IS NOTEWORTHY
THAT SPC INCREASED TORNADO/HAIL PROBS IN TODAY'S UPDATE, BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, IS
STILL THE MAIN CONCERN.
CONCERNING THE FREEZE THREAT: IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A
POLAR SURFACE HIGH WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS, AND WILL
PROMOTE FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT, WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED IN AREAWIDE IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE RECENT
RECORD WARMTH, AND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THIS FREEZE. IMPACTS TO UNPROTECTED VEGETATION ARE
EXPECTED, AND WITH MORE LOW TEMPERATURES NOW FORECAST TO FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S TUE MORNING, THERE WILL ALSO BE A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT TO EARLY SEASON FRUIT CROPS. SO HAVE THEREFOR ADDED AN
EXTREME THREAT AREA IN THE GHWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WE MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED MESSAGING FOR TUE NIGHT WHEN THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE IN A MORE IDEAL POSITION, BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE LESS THEN
WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH BEGINNING TO SHIFT OUT OF OUR REGION.
THEREAFTER, A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RISE
BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S BY FRIDAY. A STRONG MIDLEVEL HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA WHICH WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS. /SAS/EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR HBG/PIB
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 57 82 36 48 / 0 10 100 0
MERIDIAN 54 80 37 49 / 0 0 100 10
VICKSBURG 57 83 37 50 / 0 20 90 0
HATTIESBURG 56 83 43 54 / 0 0 100 10
NATCHEZ 58 83 38 51 / 0 10 90 0
GREENVILLE 57 80 35 45 / 0 50 80 0
GREENWOOD 57 81 35 46 / 0 30 100 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ018-
019-025-034-035-040-041.
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ074-
075.
EC/SW
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