811
FXUS64 KJAN 232359 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
659 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF
COAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY ALONG A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
CAPE,PWAT AND DEWPOINT VALUES AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE CWA AROUND THE TROPICAL STORM. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH A
FEW STRONGER STORMS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL HELP LIMIT THE DANGEROUS, KEEPING
HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW PRODUCT CRITERIA. THAT SAID, HEAT INDICES
WILL PEAK OUR AROUND 105 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH PORTIONS ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY POTENTIALLY REACHING SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES NEARING 108 DEGREES..
DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT VALUES REMAINING AROUND 105
TO 110 DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPANDING INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE
ALOFT WILL LIKELY PUSH US BACK INTO ELEVATED AND SIGNIFICANT HEAT
STRESS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE MID WEEK. ADDITIONAL HEAT
HEADLINES AND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AS WE
GET CLOSER. HEAT TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY NEXT THURSDAY. /KP/CR/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
01Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL UNTIL
AFTER 09Z. AFTER 09Z MVFR CIGS WL DEVELOP AT MOST TAF SITES AND
PREVAIL THROUGH 15Z BEFORE IMPROVING. AFTER 16Z VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSRA WL BE PSBL AFTER 19Z AT GWO-GTR THAT MAY RESULT IN
LOWER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 94 75 95 / 20 10 0 0
MERIDIAN 75 95 75 95 / 20 10 10 10
VICKSBURG 76 94 76 95 / 20 10 0 0
HATTIESBURG 75 97 75 97 / 20 0 0 10
NATCHEZ 74 95 74 96 / 20 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 75 93 76 94 / 20 20 10 10
GREENWOOD 75 93 75 94 / 40 20 10 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
KP/CR/22
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