153
FXUS64 KJAN 011755 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1155 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE WARMTH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- AFTER A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER, CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS RETURN LATER NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
A QUIET AND WARM AFTERNOON IS ON TAP ACROSS THE REGION. THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH 850MB SHORTWAVE
BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS
COMING BACK INTO THE ARKLATEX AND INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE. DRY AIR
PERSISTS ALOFT WITH ONLY AN UPTICK TO UP TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWS), SO DEEP MIXING ISN'T AS MUCH
OF A CONCERN AS YESTERDAY. LEANED TOWARDS SHORT TERM CONSENSUS
AND GRIDDED LAMP DEWPOINTS. DIURNAL RANGE WILL BE AROUND NEAR 28F
TO 40F DEGREES, WITH HIGHER RANGES IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN MS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS BUT
LESS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. EVEN THOUGH YESTERDAY OVERACHIEVED ON
MIXING AND FIRE DANGER, ALBEIT WITH LIGHT WINDS, HUMIDITY WON'T BE
AS CRITICALLY LOW TODAY SO FIRE DANGER WILL NOT BE AS MUCH OF A
CONCERN. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM, SOME 12F TO 18F ABOVE
(79F TO 83F), WITH SEASONABLY WARM LOWS BOTH TONIGHT, SOME 8F TO
12F ABOVE, AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT, SOME 10F TO 15F ABOVE (50F
TO 55F TONIGHT). SOME PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE PINE
BELT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HREF INDICATE LOW END DENSE FOG
PROBS (10 TO 30 PERCENT). HOLDING OFF INTRODUCTION IN HWO FOR NOW
BUT MONITORING TRENDS. UPDATES ARE OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20, AND
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MID-LVL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
QUIET AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH/LOW TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 20+ DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. TEMPS
WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND INTO MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S/LOWS 60S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
AS THE MID-LVL RIDGE MIGRATES TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCES
MOVING INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE; HOWEVER, RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED IN
THE PRIOR DISCUSSION, IMPACTFUL WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE
END AND BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD SO CONTINUE TO CHECK FOR FUTURE
UPDATES. /SW/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW TO
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AREAS FROM THE WEST.
WINDS PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AROUND 6KTS. FOG AND LOW
STRATUS IS LIKELY TO ADVECT INTO HBG AND PIB FROM THE SOUTH
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH LOWER VISIBILITY AND CEILING STICKING
AROUND THROUGH MID MORNING. /SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 80 52 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 79 50 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 82 53 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 81 51 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 82 53 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 79 54 78 56 / 10 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 80 55 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/SW/SAS20
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