857
FXUS64 KJAN 102333
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
633 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, TORNADOES, AND
HAIL, ALONG WITH A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- A BRIEF INTRUSION OF COOLER AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL
FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AND
THIS MAY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AND
THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS MADE IN THE MESSAGING,
ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE THE POTENTIAL HAIL SIZE DOWN SLIGHTLY BASED ON
RECENT GUIDANCE. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED MESSAGING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD,
THE FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS INCREASED A BIT.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY: WE'RE IN A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN TWO STORM
SYSTEMS. THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE, A POTENT TROUGH, SPLIT
BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND MORE OF A SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF LOW
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM, WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS,
SHIFTING TOWARD OUR AREA BY LATER WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS, WE
CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TODAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. BY THE
DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TO OUR WEST AHEAD
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WITH STORMS APPROACHING OUR
SOUTHEAST AR/NORTHEAST LA AREA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME.
MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A MORE SW-TO-NE ORIENTED AREA
OF CONVECTION, WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR LARGELY BOUNDARY-PARALLEL DEEP
SHEAR AND A MORE MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT. HOWEVER, THERE IS
GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBILITIES THAT COULD RESULT IN A HIGHER
IMPACT EVENT. IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LINE, AS DEPICTED IN RECENT RRFS RUNS AND
AS HINTED AT IN RECENT EURO RUNS, THESE STORMS WOULD HAVE GREATER
SEVERE POTENTIAL, INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. ALSO, IF A
SURGE IN THE LINE OF STORMS RESULTS IN IT BEING ORIENTED MORE
NORTH/SOUTH AS SUGGESTED IN THE HRRR, WE MAY SEE MORE DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL AND LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH
FOR QLCS TORNADOES. OTHER POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES, PARTICULARLY IN THE MID LEVELS,
AND LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE FORECAST LOW LEVEL HELICITY, THOUGH THIS
CAN BE OVERCOME IN MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. THERE IS ALSO
A LINGERING QUESTION OF HOW THE INFLUENCE OF A MESOSCALE LOW MIGHT
DISRUPT THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. ALL OF THIS TO SAY, THERE IS
STILL A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES FOR TOMORROW'S SEVERE THREAT,
AND MUCH OF IT WILL BE DETERMINED IN THE MESOSCALE REALM. ONE MORE
POSSIBLE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS STRONG NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS DEPICTED ON THE BACK EDGE OF STORMS IN RECENT HRRR RUNS.
WE'LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON HOW ALL OF THESE THREATS EVOLVE.
OTHER THREATS IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDE HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD AND INTERSECTED BY STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS SEEMS TO
BE MOST LIKELY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE
HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THIS
AREA IN OUR GRAPHICS. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, PARTICULARLY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: BEHIND THE FRONT, A
BRIEF INTRUSION OF COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE AIR WILL ARRIVE BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALREADY BEGIN SHIFTING
EAST OF OUR AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
VECTORS RETURNING BY FRIDAY AND HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE UPPER
70S AND 80S DURING THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIME FRAME. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH A
FEW STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN SUFFICIENTLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A BIGGER COOL DOWN IS IN THE OFFING,
WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND A FREEZE WITHIN
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME AREAS MONDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING IN SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR A FEW HOURS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FUTURE MESSAGING, ESPECIALLY FOR AG-
RELATED INTERESTS. /DL/EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
AS OF 2333Z, ALL OF OUR TAF SITES ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING VFR
CEILINGS TO START OFF THE PERIOD. VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH CEILINGS DROPPING DOWN TO
MVFR LATER TONIGHT. SOUTHERN TAF SITES WILL SEE CONDITIONS DROP
DOWN TO IVFR. WE ARE EXPECTING CONVECTION JUST AFTER THE TAF
PERIOD ENDS TOMORROW, ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROUGH TRANSITING
CENTRAL MS. STORMS DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TO AN END ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH
VFR CEILINGS PREVAILING ACROSS MULTIPLE TAF SITES. SOUTHERN SITES
WILL UNDER MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 68 84 47 63 / 0 40 90 20
MERIDIAN 66 83 46 63 / 10 30 90 30
VICKSBURG 67 84 46 62 / 0 50 80 10
HATTIESBURG 68 85 53 66 / 0 30 90 30
NATCHEZ 68 84 48 64 / 0 50 80 10
GREENVILLE 67 79 43 58 / 20 80 80 10
GREENWOOD 68 82 44 63 / 10 80 90 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/EC/CR
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