087
FXUS64 KJAN 252022
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
222 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG LIKELY SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
THROUGH FRIDAY: SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR
CWA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1018MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF THAT WAS RIDGING WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS WAS
RESULTING IN A MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.
THESE FEATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE AND REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
PROBABILITIES OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ARE LESS THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS AND ARE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL BE PATCHY SO HAVE OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH LESS FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING, ISOLATION WILL GET AN EARLIER
START AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
THAN TODAY. /22/
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, USHERING IN A
SURGE OF POLAR AIR. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT SLIGHTLY, WITH PASSAGE NOW MOST LIKELY OCCURRING MONDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT STILL LOOKS TO BE LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH FOR ALL FORECAST ZONES.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY MONDAY WITH READINGS LIKELY REMAINING STEADY OR EVEN
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE COLD AIR AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT FORMAL
MENTION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK GRAPHICS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK, BRINGING
SEVERAL NIGHTS OF PROLONGED FREEZING TEMPERATURES. COLDEST
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, HOVERING IN THE
MID 20S AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE BOTH NIGHTS. WHILE THESE
TEMPERATURES DO INDEED SIGNAL A NOTABLE COLD SPELL, DANGEROUS COLD
IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING MUCH FURTHER AHEAD, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE RECOVER STEADY
WARMTH (LOWS MID TO UPPER 50S; HIGHS IN THE 60S) UNTIL A FEW
DAYS AFTER NEW YEAR'S DAY./OAJ/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
IFR/MVFR CIGS WL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
AND VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FROM 21Z THROUGH 06Z FRI. AFTER 06Z
FRI CIGS WL BEGIN DROPPING AND MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE
BY 10Z. LIFR VSBYS WL BE PSBL IN THE SOUTH 11-14Z BUT IFR/MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL BEGINNING TO IMPROVE AFTER 16Z. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 59 76 61 78 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 55 75 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 61 78 62 78 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 57 77 60 79 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 61 78 63 79 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 61 76 62 77 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 61 76 62 78 / 0 0 10 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/OAJ/22
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