410
FXUS64 KJAN 111822 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
122 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST HEADING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-
STORMS MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE
HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA, CENTRAL MS, SOUTHWEST
MS, AND WEST CENTRAL MS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR CWA HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD THANKS TO BROAD RIDGING OVER OUR AREA. SKY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS OUR AREA AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE EAST. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S AREAWIDE.
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL START OFF RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS MOST
OF OUR CWA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A POP-UP SHOWER ACROSS THE PINE
BELT. RAIN SHOWERS/T-STORMS CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE HEADING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/LATE TUESDAY EVENING AS NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE SHOWS EASTERLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTION ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHEAST AND EAST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH POPS AROUND
65-70%. A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN CHANCES, INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING HEAT STRESS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL LEAD TO
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105F AND 110F MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF I-55. SEVERAL AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER WILL
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE "ELEVATED" HEAT STRESS WITH HEAT
INDEX READINGS AROUND 110F. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THESE AREAS FOR TUESDAY. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE HEAT
GRAPHIC FOR TUESDAY AND A "LIMITED" RISK FOR INCREASING HEAT STRESS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED. /CR/
THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. DANGEROUS HEAT
STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE HEAT GRAPHIC FOR THE LATE WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS:
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER BROAD RIDGING THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD, PEAKING BY WEEK'S END. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG ITS WESTERN FLANK WILL INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOCUSED IN
THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND, RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND HEAT WILL INCREASE. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO COVER MORE PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
HEAT INDICES CLIMB TO THE 105-110 RANGE. NEXT WEEK, A TROPICAL
SYSTEM MOVING UP NEAR THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WILL LIKELY BREAK THE
HEAT AS DRIER NORTHERLIES BECOME ESTABLISHED. THERE COULD BE A
BACKDOOR FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT COULD BREAK THE HEAT
EVEN SOONER FOR OUR EAST, BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
HOW FAR OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE. THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK TO IMPACT OUR AREA, IN FACT WE PROBABLY STAND
TO BENEFIT. /CR/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
09Z TUESDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR LOW STRATUS TO BRING MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AT A FEW SITES MAINLY IN EASTERN MISSISSIPPI BY 12Z. RAIN
IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS AROUND 12Z. IMPROVEMENT TO
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AGAIN BY 16Z. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 93 74 92 / 10 60 20 70
MERIDIAN 73 88 73 89 / 20 70 30 80
VICKSBURG 76 94 75 93 / 10 50 20 70
HATTIESBURG 75 91 74 92 / 30 70 30 70
NATCHEZ 74 92 74 90 / 20 60 20 60
GREENVILLE 74 95 75 94 / 0 30 10 50
GREENWOOD 75 95 74 94 / 0 30 20 60
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ047-048-053-059-
060.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ016-023>026.
AR...NONE.
CR/NF
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