061
FXUS64 KJAN 210558 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1258 AM CDT SAT SEP 21 2019
UPDATE
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION
06Z TAF DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHER THAN A
SOME LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS AROUND 5-7KFT & HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS, NO
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-10MPH, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT INTO
THE EVENING. /DC/
DISCUSSION
MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE EVENING BUT THERE ARE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE NORTH WEST CORNER OF THE
REGION BUT THAT TOO WILL DIMINISH WITHIN THE HOUR. OTHER THAN
THAT, EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED./JNE/
PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW:
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY:
THE MID LEVELS WILL PRETTY MUCH REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH TOMORROW
WITH RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MS/AL. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, AIRMASS
CHANGE CONTINUES FROM EAST TO WEST AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT,
OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS CONTINUES MOVING WEST. TO THE EAST
OF THE BOUNDARY, MUCH DRIER AIR WAS MOVING IN WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S. TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY, DEWPOINTS REMAINED
IN THE LOWER 70S WITH ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH SOME CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES WEST THIS EVENING, THE MAJORITY WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND PLEASANT AS LOWS SETTLE
OUT MOSTLY IN THE 60S. HOWEVER, BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWEST, ENOUGH SO FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BE A
POSSIBILITY THERE. /GG/
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA
MOSTLY DRY TO START THE NEW WEEK, HOWEVER THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY
IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK FRONT TO DIP INTO THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND COULD HELP TO FOCUS AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK THOUGH, THE RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND THEN UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE OVERALL PATTERN AT THE
END OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST
AND STEEP RIDGING OVER THE EAST COAST, WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
ADVECTION SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS MAINLY OUR NORTHEAST/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
PARISHES AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS COUNTIES BEFORE THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND LESSENS PRECIP CHANCES.
/NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 66 89 67 91 / 0 1 0 3
MERIDIAN 64 88 64 90 / 0 0 0 2
VICKSBURG 67 90 68 93 / 1 5 1 3
HATTIESBURG 66 89 66 91 / 1 3 1 6
NATCHEZ 68 88 69 90 / 2 17 3 5
GREENVILLE 67 90 68 92 / 1 1 0 4
GREENWOOD 66 89 67 91 / 0 0 0 4
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC
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