176
FXUS64 KJAN 150529
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1129 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD.
- MOST NIGHTS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WEDNESDAY...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS EVENING AS NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PINE BELT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
COME TO AN END LATER TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM
THE NORTH BY MIDNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA HEADING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL START
TO OCCUR. THIS WILL HELP NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 20S AREAWIDE. SOME LIGHT PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR CWA BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS PEAKING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S.
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS STILL SHOWING A SERIES OF REINFORCING COLD
FRONTS PUSHING ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS AT
THIS POINT STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING/SUBFREEZING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THAT IN MIND,
DANGEROUS COLD IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER GTR
WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR COLD HEADLINES. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT, COLD WEATHER HEADLINES/ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY HWO
GRAPHICS FOR RIGHT NOW.
SOME LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST MS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PINE BELT SATURDAY NIGHT (POPS BETWEEN 15-20%). THE
GFS HAS BEGUN TO HINT AT SOME FORM OF POSSIBLE WINTRY PRECIP FOR
PARTS OF THE PINE BELT AROUND THE SATURDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THE GFS, IN MORE
RECENT RUNS, APPEAR TO BE THE OUTLIER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS TO SEE WHETHER OR NOT THIS IS AN OUTLIER OR A TREND. IF
GUIDANCE STARTS TO TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF THE CURRENT GFS, THEN A
MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BE INTRODUCED. GFS IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
PRECIP ALONG THE POST FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD INTERACT WITH THE
SUB-FREEZING COLD AIR AND INTRODUCE POSSIBLE WINTRY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT IS LOW GIVEN THAT THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
WE WILL START TO SEE A LITTLE BREAK FROM THE COLD REGIME BY MID NEXT
WEEK AS FUTURE GUIDANCE SHOWS A 1028MB SFC HIGH OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS SFC HIGH WILL HELP BRING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR AREA ALLOWING FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS TO RETURN TO ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS OUR CWA. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MAKE A RETURN ACROSS OUR
AREA HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (POPS
AROUND 30%) FOR AREAS WEST OF I-55 INCLUDING SEVERAL OF OUR
NORTHEAST LA PARISHES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. /CR/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING CLEARING BY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 15-20 KTS. WINDS WILL RELAX IN THE
AFTERNOON AND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING./SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 54 27 46 30 / 40 10 0 0
MERIDIAN 54 25 46 27 / 50 10 0 0
VICKSBURG 56 28 48 33 / 30 10 0 0
HATTIESBURG 63 31 50 31 / 30 20 0 0
NATCHEZ 56 29 49 34 / 20 10 0 0
GREENVILLE 57 27 45 33 / 30 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 55 24 45 30 / 50 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
CR/CR/SAS20
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