763
FXUS64 KJAN 010832
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
232 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- RAIN CHANCES PICK UP LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND (SATURDAY)...
TODAY: MORNING WATER VAPOR/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE UPPER CLOSED
LOW/DEEPENING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND CAROLINAS.
THIS IS LEADING TO A POWERFUL WINTER STORM IN THOSE AREAS. FURTHER
WEST, THE GULF COAST STATES REMAIN IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, WHILE
SITUATED BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE
DEEPENING RIDGE OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO BAJA PENINSULA. AT THE
SURFACE, 1035MB SURFACE HIGH JUST TO THE WEST WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT GRADIENT IN THE EAST, SO AT MOST
LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE BOTTOMING OUT COLDER IN THE TEENS, BUT
LIGHTER WINDS LIMIT ANY WIND CHILL TO THE EAST. ONGOING HWO AND COLD
HEADLINES REMAIN ON TRACK THROUGH MIDDAY. SOME FROST IS LIKELY FOR
AREAS THAT DON'T HAVE TOO MUCH CLOUDS. WE FINALLY WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AROUND NOON, WHILE THE DELTA COULD REMAIN BELOW THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL (35F TO 40F IN THE
DELTA WHILE UP TO 45F TO THE SOUTHEAST), WITH ONE LAST SUBFREEZING
NIGHT WELL INTO LOW TO MID 20S MONDAY MORNING.
NEXT WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND (SATURDAY): AS ARCTIC COLD PATTERN
SHIFTS EASTWARD, SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY. MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOIST ASCENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWS)
WILL CLIMB TO IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH. COMBINED WITH MOIST ASCENT,
SOME RAIN CHANCES (CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER) ARE ON
TAP TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE SEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. 1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL
DRIFT THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER REINFORCING DRY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND ANOTHER 1030-1035MB SURFACE HIGH SAGS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE MID-WEST TO OH VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BRIEFLY FRIDAY BEFORE FALLING BACK TO SEASONABLE NORMS
NEXT WEEKEND. /DC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 42 26 60 42 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 44 23 59 36 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 42 27 60 43 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 47 27 61 39 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 45 27 63 45 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 37 26 52 40 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 39 25 55 40 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>066-072>074.
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ARZ074-075.
DC/CR
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