214
FXUS64 KJAN 261741
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1241 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS TODAY WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
LIKELY EXCEEDING 105F DEGREES AND EVENTUALLY AROUND 110F
DEGREES.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATE A DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MORNING 12Z UPPER AIR/RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATE DEEPENING MEAN MID-LEVEL RIDGING (591 TO 593DM) CENTERED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX INTO THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. THIS EXTENDS
EASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES, LEADING BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
SUBSIDENCE GRADUALLY MOVING IN. GOES EAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT, WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOWER
(AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES), OBSERVED BOTH VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND 12Z REGIONAL UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS. THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER OR ROGUE THUNDERSTORM, BUT THERE
IS ENOUGH DRYING IN THE 850-700MB LAYERS THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MORE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND LOWERED CONFIDENCE OF ANY LIMITED
COVERAGE. INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND INCOMING CAMS DO NOT
SUPPORT CHANGES TO THAT IDEA. SUMMERTIME SEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN THE HIGHEST CONCERN, WITH HIGHS PEAKING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S (89F TO 94F), COMBINED HIGH BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS (72F TO 76F). THERE COULD BE SOME MIXING BUT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL BE A TOUCH TOUGHER DUE TO VERY WET SOILS
AND RESULTANT MOIST BOUNDARY/SKIN LAYER. EVEN IF HIGH TEMPS
HAVE A LITTLE HARDER TIME TO PEAK TOO MUCH INTO THE MID 90S,
AFTERNOON HEAT STRESS REMAINS A CONCERN. THESE SHOULD PEAK AROUND
100 TO 105F IN CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST MS AND
NORTHEAST LA. INHERITED HWO GRAPHIC FOR DANGEROUS HEAT REMAINS ON
TRACK. UNDER THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT, LOWS
WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM (74F TO 77F). UPDATES ARE OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
MEAN RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD IN THIS WEEKEND,
KEEPING THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN AS THE NORM. DEEPENING RIDGE (594
TO 596DM) AND WARM ADVECTION WILL DRIVE SUMMERTIME WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL MODERATE (3F TO 5F
ABOVE THIS WEEKEND AND 4F TO 8F ABOVE NEXT WEEK), GENERALLY LOW
TO MID 90S THIS WEEKEND (90F TO 95F) AND MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER
90S NEXT MONDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY (92F TO 96F). WITH SOME DRIER
AIR ALOFT THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SOME MIXING COULD DEVELOP, WITH
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION LIKELY REMAINING STILL TOUGH WITH LINGERING
VERY WET SOILS AND RESULTANT MOIST BOUNDARY/SKIN LAYER. EVEN IF
HIGH TEMPS STRUGGLE TO PEAK MUCH INTO THE UPPER 90S (96F TO 98F),
AFTERNOON DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN A CONCERN. ONSET OF
THE WORST HEAT WILL BE INTO NEXT WEEK AS HEAT INDICES REACH NEAR
OR IN EXCESS OF 105F DEGREES AREAWIDE TO POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 110F
DEGREES AT TIMES. INHERITED HWO GRAPHICS FOR AREAWIDE HEAT
STRESS CONCERNS REMAINS VALID AND HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS STRETCH OF DANGEROUS HEAT. LOWS REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM DURING THIS TIME (LOW TO MID 70S).
NEXT BEST CHANCES OF RAIN (25 TO 65 PERCENT) WILL NOT BE UNTIL
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK (NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) AS SERIES
OF EASTERLY SHORTWAVES (STRONGEST AROUND THURSDAY) SLIDE UNDER
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE APPALACHIANS. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
AREAS, GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 INTO THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR, WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE UP INTO THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. SOME STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
DURING THIS TIME AS SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S, INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW (15
TO 25KTS) COULD LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED ORGANIZED CONVECTION AT
TIMES. THE INCREASED RAIN COVERAGE WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, WITH HIGHS A LITTLE MORE SEASONABLE INTO
THE LOW 90S. /DC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH THE
18Z TAF CYCLE, WHILE THE PINE BELT (PIB AND HBG) COULD HAVE BRIEF
DROPS TO MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY/BR AROUND DAYBREAK (28/09-13Z
SATURDAY) BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE
NORM THE NEXT 24 HOURS (SUSTAINED AROUND 10 TO 15MPH AND GUSTS UP
TO 20 TO 25MPH AT GLH AND GWO, LIGHT THIS EVENING AND A LITTLE
LESS SURFACE WINDS AND GUSTS SATURDAY). /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 92 75 93 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 75 93 75 94 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 76 92 75 92 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 75 95 74 96 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 75 93 75 94 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 77 91 76 92 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 77 93 76 93 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/
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