629
FXUS64 KJAN 290148 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
848 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT.
- COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 841 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
OVERALL FORECAST IS UNFOLDING GENERALLY AS EXPECTED, THOUGH
THUNDER IS SPARSE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WRAP-
AROUND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY TOMORROW
FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW WILL LIMIT THE RAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH. BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS. SO WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
GRAPHIC AND WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1010MB LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND INTO OUR DELTA REGION. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF A LOW THIS EVENING THAT
WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY SUNRISE AND THEN
SHIFT EAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST
12-HR HEIGHT FALLS OF 240M OVER OUR CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT COMBINED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST MAY HELP PRODUCE A COUPLE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR SOUTHWEST MOST ZONES EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THE RISK FOR SEVERE REMAINS VERY LOW IN OUR CWA. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR CWA WELL BEFORE SUNRISE AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE AS THE CLOSED
LOW HELPS RAPIDLY DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH. AS THE CLOSED
LOW BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY MORNING,
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO <1000MB RESULTING IN A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OF 8-10MB ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS WILL HELP
MAINTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE DAY. IN
ADDITION, MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A STINGER JET ROUNDING
THE CLOSED LOW. THIS FEATURES WOULD DROP ACROSS OUR CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA FOR
WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS START EARLY IN THE MORNING IN
THE WEST AND THEN SHIFT OVER EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WITH THE
STINGER JET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY DRIER
AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BUT THE NEARLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING TO MOVE
FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR THE RAIN TO END IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. /22/
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A MUCH COOLER WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE.
THIS PATTERN WILL SEND A SEQUENCE OF QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVES THROUGH
OUR REGION, AND THESE MAY BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN,
ESPECIALLY FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE LARGE DISAGREEMENTS IN
THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
MAY TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW
FOR NOW BUT THIS COULD BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. ANOTHER WEATHER CONCERN
IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME FROST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT
(HALLOWEEN NIGHT) WITH SKIES FORECAST TO CLEAR OUT AND WIND EXPECTED
TO GO CALM. SOME CONSENSUS AND BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE INDICATE MORE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN MS.
CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE JUST YET IN GRAPHICAL
HAZARD OUTLOOKS BUT COULD BE NEEDED IN A SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
CYCLE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 841 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
RAIN PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING VARIABLE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY THROUGH AT LEAST AROUND 12Z, BUT -RA WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TAF SITES LATER IN THE PERIOD. LOW STRATUS
PRODUCING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN.
/NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 49 57 46 61 / 90 20 30 0
MERIDIAN 48 59 45 62 / 90 40 30 0
VICKSBURG 49 58 48 63 / 90 10 10 0
HATTIESBURG 51 65 48 66 / 80 10 10 0
NATCHEZ 48 60 47 63 / 90 10 0 0
GREENVILLE 49 55 45 61 / 90 70 10 0
GREENWOOD 47 56 45 61 / 90 70 30 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-
034>036-040>062.
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
22/06
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