245
FXUS64 KLZK 181747
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1247 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
-ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
FAVORING SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
-EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH THE 105-110 DEGREE
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
-SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE STATE, WITH RAIN
CHANCES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS TUE MORNING AFTER
THE WEAK FRONT DROPPED SOUTH INTO THE STATE ON MON. A SVR STORM
PRODUCED WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40
CORRIDOR MON AFTERNOON...WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGE. NEW
CONVECTION IS NOW DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF THE CWA NEAR
FSM...ACTIVITY LIKELY FORMING JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE
DROPPING ESE INTO THE STATE. NEAR- TERM HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING OFF AND ON OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE
TUE...POTENTIALLY MOVING EAST IN THE SAME GENERAL PATH AS MON
AFTERNOON STORM...ALONG THE I-40/AR RIVER VALLEY CORRIDOR. THE
THREAT FOR SVR WX WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOWER THAN SEEN ON
MON...BUT STILL WOULDN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG/SVR STORM.
THERE MAY BE A BREAK AFTER SUNRISE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HRS IN
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT THE FRONT THAT MOVED SOUTH INTO THE
STATE ON MON...WILL LIFT BACK NORTH TUE AFTERNOON. AREAS SW OF THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
100...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR OVER 105...POTENTIALLY OVER 110
IN SOME AREAS. HEAT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT THE NERN
COUNTIES WHERE RELATIVELY COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN. SOME ADDITIONAL
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG/SW OF THE FRONT OVER THE
SWRN HALF OF THE CWA.
BY WED...SW SFC FLOW WILL INTENSIFY...AND AFTERNOON MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR LOWER DEWPTS IN THE AFTERNOON HRS...BUT ALSO RESULT IN
HOTTER TEMPS. IN FACT...THIS MAY RESULT IN NEARLY THE HOTTEST
CONDITIONS OF THE YEAR SO FAR...WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS LIKELY AT
OR OVER 100. EVEN WITH THE DRIER AFTERNOON AIR...SOME ADDITIONAL
AFTERNOON ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AS A NEW FRONT
DROPS SOUTH TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE DROPPING
SOUTH INTO THE STATE ON THU AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPS SE THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL...AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE SITES OF KHRO, KBPK,
KHOT, AND KADF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRESENT AT THE
SITES OF KHRO AND KLLQ ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING IN EXCESS OF AROUND 18 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 75 104 75 95 / 0 10 40 50
CAMDEN AR 77 102 78 100 / 20 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 75 99 72 92 / 0 10 50 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 77 104 78 100 / 10 0 10 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 78 106 80 100 / 10 0 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 79 103 80 100 / 20 10 0 20
MOUNT IDA AR 76 103 77 100 / 10 0 0 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 74 99 71 91 / 0 20 50 40
NEWPORT AR 74 102 75 94 / 0 10 40 50
PINE BLUFF AR 76 102 78 98 / 20 0 0 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 75 105 76 99 / 0 10 10 20
SEARCY AR 74 105 75 97 / 0 10 20 40
STUTTGART AR 77 104 79 99 / 10 0 10 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ004-005-014-024-
033-042-045>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-123-137-140-141-203-
212-213-221>223-237-240-241-313-340-341.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ004-005-
014>016-024-025-033-034-042-052>056-062>069-103-112-113-123-137-
140-141-203-212-213-221>223-237-240-241-313-340-341.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ031-032-
039-043-044-121-122-130-138-230-238.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ031-
032-039-043>047-057-121-122-130-138-230-238.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...74
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