112
FXUS64 KLZK 041101
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
601 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
-DRY AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY (MONDAY).
-STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO ARKANSAS BETWEEN THE
PERIOD OF LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
-ON TUESDAY, NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS WILL HAVE
AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
-INTO WEDNESDAY, THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
TRANSITION INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS.
-RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A SIGNAL FOR A POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW THIS FAR
IN ADVANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
MONDAY (TODAY):
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A SLIGHT RIDGE A H500 WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
ARKANSAS WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN REGION
OF THE CONUS. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE SLOWLY
TRACKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-WEST REGION OF THE CONUS TOWARD
ARKANSAS.
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO REMAIN TODAY WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE OVERFLOW FLOW PATTERN IN
TANDEM WITH A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING
ARKANSAS. AT THE SFC, A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE POSITIONED
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER. A SECOND FEATURE IN THE FORM OF A DRYLINE
IS PROGGED TO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHERN TEXAS. INTO WEDNESDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS ALONG TO NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
EXPECT ELEVATED CONVECTION TO BE IN PROGRESS ON TUESDAY MORNING (NOT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ON TUESDAY)
AS A ROBUST JET WILL BE IN PLACE FROM 925 MB TO 850 MB OVER ARKANSAS
WITH STORMS EXPECTED PROVIDED INCREASED ASCENT IN BOTH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE POSITIONED OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET PROGGED TO BE
POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE ELEVATED STORMS PRESENT ON
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE CAPABLE OF HAIL WITH A FEW REPORTS OF
SEVERE HAIL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
CONVECTION PRESENT ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE STATE AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AND PROMOTE A PARAMETER SPACE CONDUCIVE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE PARAMETER SPACE ACROSS ARKANSAS IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED BETWEEN 1,000 AND
2,500 J/KG PER LATEST GUIDANCE ALONG WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR BETWEEN 15
AND 35+ KNOTS ACROSS THE STATE. STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ARKANSAS IS
PROGGED PER LATEST CAMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AND PROGRESS EASTWARD BEGINNING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY. CELLS ARE
INITIALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISCRETE FOR A PERIOD OF 1 TO 3 HOURS
BEFORE A LINEAR STORM MODE IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR IN CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. THE PLACEMENT OF WHERE STORMS TRANSITION FROM DISCRETE
CELLS TO A LINE OF STORMS WILL BE PARAMOUNT IN THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION.
THE DISCRETE STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE TRANSITION TO A LINE
OF STORMS WILL PROMOTE A HAZARD OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ADDITIONALLY, STORM MOTION OR SPEED PER LATEST GUIDANCE IS EXPECTED
TO BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WHICH WILL INCREASE THE DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL THROUGH MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.
AS DISCRETE STORMS TRANSITION INTO A LINE OF STORMS, PRIMARY HAZARDS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES WITHIN THE LINE OF
STORMS.
EXPECT ON WEDNESDAY, A POSSIBLE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO TAKE
PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS. STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR
ALL HAZARDS: LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES. STORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS OF ARKANSAS
REMAIN IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN AT H500 WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
ARKANSAS WITH A FEW PERTURBATIONS OR SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW
PATTERN WILL BE NOTED IN PROXIMITY OVER ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY. AT THE
SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO ARKANSAS.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COMPLETELY MOVING OUT OF
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT BRINGS POPS INTO LATE
SATURDAY AND ON SUNDAY TO THE STATE. EXPECT AN INCREASE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL UPTICK EACH DAY AS THE
STATE REBOUNDS AFTER THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM
WEDNESDAY WILL TEMPORARILY LOWER TEMPERATURES OVERALL UNTIL
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SIGNAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS PRESENT INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT THE CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE POTENTIAL OR HAZARDS INTO THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WHEN CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ALL SITES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE SITES OF KHRO, KBPK, KHOT, KADF, KLIT,
AND KPBF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY THROUGH THE LATER
MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 81 61 75 52 / 0 50 60 70
CAMDEN AR 80 63 83 62 / 0 10 10 50
HARRISON AR 80 59 74 48 / 0 60 70 60
HOT SPRINGS AR 80 63 80 58 / 0 20 50 60
LITTLE ROCK AR 81 62 80 58 / 0 20 50 60
MONTICELLO AR 81 62 82 64 / 0 10 10 50
MOUNT IDA AR 79 63 80 57 / 0 10 50 60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 81 59 72 48 / 0 70 80 60
NEWPORT AR 82 63 76 54 / 0 50 70 80
PINE BLUFF AR 81 63 81 59 / 0 20 30 60
RUSSELLVILLE AR 81 61 80 54 / 0 30 50 60
SEARCY AR 81 60 77 53 / 0 40 50 60
STUTTGART AR 81 64 80 58 / 0 20 40 70
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page