947  
FXUS64 KLZK 202345  
AFDLZK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
645 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2020  
   
AVIATION
 
 
TROPICAL STORM BETA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF  
MEXICO. BY MORNING WE COULD SEE SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
OUTER BANDS OF THE SYSTEM GETTING INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THERE IS  
A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS COULD GET NEAR THE VERY SOUTHERN TAF  
SITES BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
(ISSUED 319 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2020)  
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT  
 
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS ONGOING THIS SUN AFTER A COOL QUIET MORNING WAS  
SEEN. LOWS THIS MORNING DROPPED DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST  
AREAS...THOUGH A FEW AREAS DID REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S WHERE SOME  
CLOUDS DEVELOPED...AND WINDS REMAINED ELEVATED. THIS SUN  
AFTERNOON...NERLY WINDS PERSISTED...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 70S  
TO LOW 80S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR MID SEP. DRY WX WAS  
ONGOING...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LOWS TONIGHT  
WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH LOWS BY MON  
MORNING IN THE 50S AND 60S.  
 
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE REBOUNDING STARTING MON...AS WE'LL START TO  
SEE SOME INFLUENCE FROM TS BETA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING  
CHANCES FOR SHRA AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED TSRA STARTING THE DAYLIGHT  
HRS ON MON. THIS WILL INITIALLY START ACROSS SRN SECTIONS...THEN  
SPREAD GRADUALLY NORTH LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO MON NIGHT. THE BEST  
CHANCES FOR SEEING ANY PRECIP THROUGH MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL  
BE ACROSS THE SRN AND SWRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. BY THE DAYTIME HRS  
ON TUE...MUCH OF THE SWRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME  
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA...WITH SLIGHT  
CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE...LOOKS  
LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE IN THIS SAME GENERAL AREA OF THE  
SWRN AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD  
BE SEEN. THIS WETTER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD  
STARTING TUE NIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY  
 
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BETA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST  
OR NORTHEAST OVER ARKANSAS AS THE SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICALLY  
TRANSITIONS FROM A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO AN EXTRATROPICAL (NON-  
TROPICAL/NORMAL) CYCLONE. FOR ARKANSAS THIS TRANSITION ISN'T  
INCREDIBLY RELEVANT, BUT THE MOST IMPORTANT RESULT OF THIS  
EVOLUTION FOR ARKANSANS IS THAT CONTINUED RAIN SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT  
WAY TO STRENGTHENING THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM.  
 
BASICALLY, EVEN THOUGH IT WILL CHANGE NAMES FROM A STORM TO A  
DEPRESSION AND FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO AN EXTRA TROPICAL SYSTEM,  
EXTRA TROPICAL DOESN'T MEAN THE STORM WILL BE WORSE, IT ACTUALLY  
MEANS THE WIND FIELDS WILL BE PRETTY STABLE AWAY FROM  
THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH FOR  
MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY, BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY  
MORNING. RAINFALL WILL MAINLY COME IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS  
WITH A LITTLE MORE LIGHTNING AS DRY AIR GETS INVOLVED IN THE UPPER  
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT. LIGHTNING OR NOT, RAINFALL RATES  
WILL BE EFFICIENT AS THE STORM SYSTEM IS STILL WORKING WITH  
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND RAINFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY COMMON. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MUCH  
OF ARKANSAS CAN EXPECT 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN. DO NOT EXPECT ANY  
WIDESPREAD FLOODING AT THIS TIME BECAUSE THE RAINFALL WILL FALL  
OVER THE COURSE OF 72 HOURS, AND WE HAVEN'T HAD A WHOLE LOT OF  
RAIN LATELY, SO THE SOIL AND ACTIVE VEGETATION WILL PROBABLY  
HANDLE MOST OF IT WITHOUT ANY PROBLEMS. LOCALIZED/ISOLATED  
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS WELL LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.  
 
BEHIND BETA, THE TRANSITION FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO AN  
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM MEANS THAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS  
THE STATE QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. WITH DRIER AIR  
MOVING IN, BUT NOT BECAUSE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE, WE'LL ACTUALLY  
GET WARMER PRETTY QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT  
STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S,  
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.  
 
ON SATURDAY, THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL  
RESULT IN A WARM DAY ACROSS ARKANSAS, BUT IT WILL ALSO DRAW GULF  
MOISTURE BACK UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT, WE MAY  
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST  
CHANCES HOLDING IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE  
WHERE MOISTURE RETURNS THE QUICKEST. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS  
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST  
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH COULD  
SEND A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE.  
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS MOVING  
ALONG THIS COLD FRONT LATE ON SATURDAY, BUT AS THIS IS GETTING  
PRETTY OUT THERE IN THE FORECAST, DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE  
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN DRASTICALLY CHANGE  
THE TIMING AND NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BY THE TIME IT  
GETS HERE. BEST THING TO THINK OF RIGHT NOW, IS TO KEEP YOUR EYES  
OPEN FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES ON STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS  
WEEKEND IN LATER FORECASTS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... IT WILL  
ACTUALLY GET QUITE COLD, BUT THAT AIR WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY OR  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
CAVANAUGH  
 

 
   
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
AVIATION...51  
 
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