483
FXUS64 KLZK 231723
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1223 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE PERIOD OF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
STATE OF ARKANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
THURSDAY (TODAY):
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A RIDGE AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER ARKANSAS
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND SHORTWAVE
PATTERN APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS. AT THE
SFC, A PARENT SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER POSITIONED ACROSS THE
VICINITY OF THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.
LATEST CAMS GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SITUATION WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
INTO AN MCS WHICH IS PROJECTED TO ENTER THE STATE OF ARKANSAS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE
HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE TIMING OF ARRIVAL
OF THE MCS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS IS EXPECTED DURING A TIME OF
LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE STATE OVERALL, BUT THE MCS WILL BE IN
AN ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH PLENTIFUL
AMOUNTS OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SEE MORE BELOW AS THE MCS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING ACROSS ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE PULSES WILL MOVE OVER
ARKANSAS WITH OTHERWISE NEARLY ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE STATE. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND WILL TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE.
EXPECT ON FRIDAY MORNING, A DECAYING MCS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE. THE SIZE AND SPEED OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE PARAMOUNT IN THE
DETERMINATION OF, IF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IF THE
ACTIVITY IS SLUGGISH IN EXITING THE CWA AND STATE, THEN INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STRUGGLE TO BECOME UNSTABLE
AGAIN TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THE CONVERSE SITUATION IS THAT THE MCS MOVES
QUICKLY ACROSS THE CWA AND STATE ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME
UNSTABLE VIA WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. IF
THE CONVERSE SITUATION COMES TO FRUITION, THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS, A
SECONDARY HAZARD WILL BE A TORNADO OR TWO.
INTO SATURDAY, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT DOES OR DOES NOT DEVELOP HOURS PRIOR AS THE
QUESTION OF WHETHER STORMS ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP IN A PARAMETER SPACE
THAT IS STABLE OR UNSTABLE. A SIGNAL DOES EXIST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS A TAD LOWER FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY, BUT IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WHICH BE MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THEN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED.
SUNDAY/MONDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, SHORTWAVE PULSES CONTINUE OVER ARKANSAS WITH A
TAD MORE DIGGING OR DEFINITION WITHIN THE FLOW PATTERN FOR EACH
SHORTWAVE. AT THE SFC, A BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY AND RETREATS BACK NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT OPENING UP A WARM SECTOR AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR THE REMNANTS OF A MCS WILL EXIST
LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES REMAIN
INTACT OUT OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA MOVING INTO ARKANSAS. ALL HAZARDS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE, BUT PRIMARY HAZARDS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL. A SECONDARY HAZARD WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO OR TWO.
INTO MONDAY, THE WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT INTO THE MID-WEST REGION OF
THE CONUS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THUS OPENING UP A
FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR WITH AMPLE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IT
IS MONDAY WHICH DOES LOOK THE BEST FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS ALL HAZARDS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM WHICH DEVELOP ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:
RAIN CHANCES WILL STICK AROUND, BUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECT
TO BECOME NEAR ZERO AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE ON
MONDAY, BUT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN
THE VICINITY IS ANTICIPATED BY MID-WEEK. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECAST DISCUSSION AS THE FOCUS HAS BEEN REALLY PINPOINTED TOWARDS
THURSDAY (TODAY) THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE OVERALL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PREDOMINATE ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 83 65 75 59 / 20 50 100 60
CAMDEN AR 82 65 79 61 / 20 10 80 80
HARRISON AR 79 62 75 54 / 20 80 90 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 80 64 75 60 / 20 30 90 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 82 66 76 61 / 20 30 90 80
MONTICELLO AR 83 65 80 63 / 20 10 80 90
MOUNT IDA AR 79 64 75 59 / 20 50 90 60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 81 62 75 54 / 20 70 90 30
NEWPORT AR 84 66 75 60 / 20 30 90 60
PINE BLUFF AR 83 65 78 62 / 20 20 80 90
RUSSELLVILLE AR 81 64 76 59 / 20 60 90 50
SEARCY AR 83 64 76 58 / 20 30 90 70
STUTTGART AR 84 66 76 63 / 20 20 90 80
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...56
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