469
FXUS64 KLZK 150540
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1240 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
-WINDY CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY
-VERY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH WELL BELOW
FREEZING CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS
-TEMPERATURES REBOUND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL CONDITIONS BY LATE NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING...DEEPENING AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND MOVE ENE TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
RAPIDLY SE THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN SURGE SOUTH INTO THE STATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. MANY HAZARDS WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION.
THE FIRST HAZARD TO DISCUSS CONTINUES TO BE THE THREAT FOR SVR
CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PERSISTENT CAPPING
INVERSION AHEAD OF THE SURGING COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT INITIALLY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RAPID
SE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AND IMPRESSIVE LARGE SCALE
LIFT...EXPECT THE CAPPING INVERSION TO BE EASILY OVERCOME WITH THE
SFC FRONTAL FORCING. VERY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AS IT DROPS SE INTO THE STATE...WITH PLENTY OF WIND ENERGY
EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE DOWNWARD TOWARDS THE SFC. AS A
RESULT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT EXPECTED...WITH
WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT. THERE MAY ALSO BE A THREAT FOR A FEW QLCS BRIEF TORNADOES
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. WHILE NOT A PRIMARY
THREAT...SOME HAIL MAY ALSO BE SEEN WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE CELLS.
EXPECT THE SVR THREAT TO RAPIDLY END FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF AR.
THE NEXT HAZARD TO DISCUSS WILL BE VERY STRONG NON-THUNDERSTORM
WINDS. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE...AND TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT... THERE LOOKS TO
BE AT LEAST WIND ADV LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE. INITIALLY...SRLY WINDS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE SUSTAINED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES. HOWEVER...ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES...AND THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE STATE...EXPECT THE NWRLY
WINDS TO INCREASE FURTHER ACROSS THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TO NIGHT. THESE WINDS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20 TO 40 MPH RANGE
SUSTAINED...AND GUSTS OF 45 TO MAYBE OVER 50 MPH AT TIMES. IN
FACT...SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS MAY SEE WIND GUSTS WELL OVER 50
MPH. HAVE INITIALLY USED A 50/50 BLEND OF NBM/NBM90 FOR WIND/GUST
GRIDS...BUT COULD SEE SOME POTENTIAL THESE COULD STILL BE A TAD LOW.
WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A IMPRESSIVE RETURN TONIGHT INTO
MON AS MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WAS SOME
POTENTIAL IN EARLIER DATA TO SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE ERODES MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE COLD
AIR. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LOOKS MUCH MORE LIMITED AT
THIS TIME. IF ANY SNOW WERE TO BE SEEN...IT WILL BE BRIEF AND WITH
LIMITED IMPACTS...AND MAINLY ACROSS NRN/NWRN SECTIONS.
WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
BY AROUND SUNRISE MON MORNING WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL TO NWRN
SECTIONS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE OZARKS MAY SEE WIND CHILL
VALUES GET NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. SOME LOW TO MID 20S WIND CHILLS WILL
EVEN BE POSSIBLE INTO SERN AR MON MORNING.
WHILE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IMPRESSIVELY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CREATE SOME HAZARDS AS TEMPS
WILL DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE FOR ALL OF THE STATE BOTH MON AND TUE MORNINGS. INITIALLY...A
LARGE PORTION OF THE STATE WILL SEE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING BY SUNRISE
MON...WITH BASICALLY ALL OF AR BELOW FREEZING TUE MORNING. TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S FOR ALL BUT THE SERN
SECTIONS MON MORNING....AND MID TEENS TO MID 20S FOR BASICALLY ALL
OF AR TUE MORNING. GIVEN HOW WARM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW
WEEKS...AND HOW RESPONSIVE PLANT LIFE HAS BEEN TO THE WARMER
CONDITIONS...THIS COLD MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE AS A RESULT.
ANOTHER HAZARD TO DISCUSS WILL BE THE INCREASED FIRE WEATHER THREAT
ON MON. DEPENDING ON HOW WET FUELS BECOME WITH THE FRONTAL
CONVECTION...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON MON AFTERNOON. WHILE
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS MON...VERY DRY AIR WILL HAVE
FILTERED INTO THE STATE AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES
DIPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS MON AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
LONG THE BREEZY WINDS PERSIST TO SEE HOW LIKELY THIS SCENARIO MAY BE.
THE COLD SNAP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SRLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY BY MID-WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO BE
SEEN AS THE RIDGE TO THE SW EXPANDS TOWARDS AR. TEMPS BY LATE IN THE
FORECAST WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS...AND EVEN SOME
80S BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
BREEZY SRLY WINDS OF 10-25 KTS WILL BE NOTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MENTIONED WIND SHEAR
OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. S/SW WINDS WILL REALLY CRANK UP ON
SUN RANGING FROM 20-35 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP NW TO SE ACROSS THE
STATE. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT
WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY BETWEEN 25-35 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MVFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW
STRATUS MOVE INTO THE REGION. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR IS EXPECTED ON SUN
WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 67 26 40 21 / 90 30 0 0
CAMDEN AR 77 30 47 23 / 80 30 0 0
HARRISON AR 68 20 35 18 / 90 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 71 27 43 24 / 80 20 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 72 29 43 24 / 80 30 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 78 31 46 26 / 70 60 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 69 26 43 22 / 90 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 66 22 36 18 / 90 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 71 27 39 22 / 90 40 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 76 30 44 24 / 80 40 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 69 27 43 22 / 90 10 0 0
SEARCY AR 70 27 43 21 / 90 30 0 0
STUTTGART AR 74 30 43 24 / 80 50 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-
121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-
241-313-340-341.
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...67
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