128
FXUS64 KLZK 120422
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1022 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
-LIGHT RAIN WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT EXITS
THE STATE.
-BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
-A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD, BENEFICIAL RAIN TO
THE STATE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ORIENTED ROUGHLY
ALONG A LINE FROM MENA TO RUSSELLVILLE TO JONESBORO WITH LIGHT
RAIN POSITIONED ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT. THIS FRONT IS BRINGING A
NOTABLE TEMPERATURE SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE BUT THE RANGE IN TD
VALUES IS MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT. NORTHERN AR DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
28-32 F RANGE WITH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR DEWPOINTS IN THE 55-65
F RANGE. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND RAIN WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF TOWARD THE S/SE AS
WELL.
DRIER CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS SOUTH TOWARD THE STATE.
THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND MORE FOCUSED ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF
THE STATE AS THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE TO THE EAST OF
ARKANSAS. THE H500 MAP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING TO THE WEST OF THE STATE AND TROUGHING TO
THE EAST.
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A QUICK MOVING H500 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE BAJA CA PENINSULA TO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. A CORRESPONDING SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH. THIS
WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL, RAINFALL TOTALS
IN THE 1.5-2.5 INCH RANGE APPEAR LIKELY WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE.
THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW ACROSS ARKANSAS WITH BETTER CHANCES
TO THE SOUTH, GENERALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA. BUT, EVEN
THERE, SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING TIMING AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR
AVAILABLE ENSEMBLES SHOW A MORE SRLY TRACK FOR THE MAIN H500
SYSTEM AS WELL AS THE SFC LOW. THIS WOULD REINFORCE THE IDEA OF
ANY SEVERE THREAT REMAINING TO THE SOUTH.
THERE WON'T REALLY BE ANY COLD AIR BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD FROM LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY EVENING
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 34 60 38 64 / 0 0 10 10
CAMDEN AR 38 68 43 72 / 0 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 36 61 39 65 / 0 0 0 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 37 63 42 68 / 0 0 0 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 36 61 41 66 / 0 0 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 40 66 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 37 65 42 69 / 0 0 0 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 34 59 37 64 / 0 0 0 10
NEWPORT AR 34 58 39 62 / 0 0 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 36 63 41 68 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 37 63 42 68 / 0 0 0 20
SEARCY AR 34 61 38 65 / 0 0 10 10
STUTTGART AR 36 61 42 65 / 0 0 0 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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