869
FXUS64 KLZK 232250 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
450 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 209 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING TODAY
-WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS, WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS WINDS STRENGTHEN
-A TRANSITION TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FAVORED LATE IN THE WEEK,
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE,
HOWEVER THE HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE TODAY, WEAKENING
THE WINDS, AND THUS LIMITING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AS THIS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASY BY TOMORROW, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN, RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME, NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, AS THIS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE DEW POINTS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, COUPLED WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE THAT WOULD
INHIBIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT (~30 KNOTS AT
900 MB) REACHING THE SURFACE.
WARMING TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGHING FEATURE WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SURFACE LOW DEEPENING EAST OF THE
STATE, SO THE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AXIS REMAINS TO THE EAST.
SOME SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFTING, PARTICULARLY FROM THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES, IS NOTED, WHICH WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER
RAIN AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME, EVEN THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD
ONLY RESULT IN MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN
ARKANSAS, GENERALLY 0.10"-0.25" AT THIS TIME.
ADVANCING FORWARD LATE THIS WEEK, THE MID-WEEK TROUGHING WILL
EJECT TO THE EAST, WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTING INTO AND
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE POLAR JET WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH,
BUT AN ENHANCED JET FROM A PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD AID IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS QUITE
A BIT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS, WITH NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGES
CAPTURING THIS BEST, WHERE THERE'S 20-25 DEGREE SPREADS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES STARTING SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST FOR TUE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR
TUE...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KTS AT TIMES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 26 59 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 27 64 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 26 62 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 27 63 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 27 61 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 27 61 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 28 64 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 25 61 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 26 57 44 65 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 26 61 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 27 63 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 23 59 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 27 58 46 69 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...62
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