855
FXUS64 KLZK 082358
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
558 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
A WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FROM THE
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY, WITH THE LATTER FRONT SETTLING
CLOSE TO THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER.
GIVEN THE SETUP, CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AREAS
OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AS WELL, AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED IN PLACES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL ON FRIDAY,
WITH ANY SHOWERS SOUTH OF LITTLE ROCK.
THE SCENARIO WILL REPEAT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, AND WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/FRIDAY. THIS TIME, PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD, AND AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE APPRECIABLE. HALF INCH
TO INCH TOTALS ARE IN THE FORECAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS WELL.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, READINGS WILL BE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
THE PERIOD BEGINS LATE SATURDAY, WITH A WEAK SWT OVER W TX AND
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES AND SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIP WILL END FROM WNW TO
ESE AS THESE FEATURES CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD MOVEMENT. BY THE TIME
THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM EXITS, AN ADDITIONAL 1/4" (SSE AR) TO 1"+
INCH (REST OF THE STATE) OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO HAVE OCCURRED.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUN, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING EARLY
MON ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AR, AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THROUGH THE DAY MON, AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND HEAT ENERGY INCREASE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (AND SURROUNDING STATES), A STRONG AND
EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DESTABILIZED ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE MON THROUGH TUES,
WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST BY EARLY WED. AN ADDITIONAL 1" TO
3" OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST (LOWER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST) BETWEEN
LATE MON THROUGH EARLY WED. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY ALLOW FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER, BEING 5 DAYS
OUT, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE SOME OF THE INGREDIENTS FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT MAY NOT ALIGN PERFECTLY (TRACK AND SPEED OF THE UPPER
LOW, TIME OF DAY WITH IDEAL DYNAMICS, MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WAA, ETC.). EXPECT UPDATES AS WE MONITOR MODEL TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
BEHIND THE MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM, MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL
EXPAND ACROSS THE STATE, BRINGING DRIER AND COLDER THAN AVERAGE
CONDITIONS TO THE NATURAL STATE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN DRAPED ACROSS THE
STATE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT, MAINLY IFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIFR OVERNIGHT WITH FG AND LOW
CIGS. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM. ON FRIDAY, CONDS WILL IMPROVE FROM
NW TO SE WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF A COLD FRONT. VIS WILL IMPROVE
AND CIGS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WEDGE OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR
SLIDING IN. SCATTERED SHRA ARE EXPECTED AT KPBF AND KLLQ WHICH
MAY TEMPORARILY IMPROVE VIS DURING MODERATE PRECIPITATION RATES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 49 65 48 57 / 40 0 40 90
CAMDEN AR 60 68 57 70 / 60 40 20 70
HARRISON AR 48 61 46 57 / 20 0 90 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 57 67 55 66 / 60 10 40 90
LITTLE ROCK AR 57 66 54 65 / 70 10 30 80
MONTICELLO AR 61 69 57 71 / 50 30 10 60
MOUNT IDA AR 55 67 54 66 / 50 10 50 90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 49 61 45 55 / 20 0 90 100
NEWPORT AR 52 62 49 58 / 50 0 30 90
PINE BLUFF AR 58 65 55 68 / 70 20 20 80
RUSSELLVILLE AR 53 66 52 62 / 40 0 60 90
SEARCY AR 52 65 49 61 / 60 10 30 90
STUTTGART AR 57 65 54 65 / 80 20 20 80
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...46
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...70
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