681  
FXUS64 KLZK 082353  
AFDLZK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
653 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
+ RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE LOOK AS THOUGH  
THEY WILL BE AT THEIR MAXIMUM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS  
ARKANSAS WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER DAYS IN THIS 7 DAY FORECAST.  
 
+ FAIRLY COMMON JULY HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER  
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TODAY IS PROBABLY THE COOLEST DAY IN THE  
FORECAST GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER, BUT HIGHS WILL ROUTINELY BE IN  
THE LOW TO MID 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S RESULTING IN  
DAILY MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES. HOT AND HUMID  
YES, BUT NOT UNUSUALLY SO.  
 
+ DAILY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE  
FORECAST EACH DAY, HOWEVER THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK  
TO POP UP/ISOLATED HIT AND MISS TYPE OF ACTIVITY WITH MOST AREAS  
MISSING OUT ON THE DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
 
CAVANAUGH  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE LARGE  
SCALE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS MORE  
OR LESS CONVERGING OVER ARKANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE  
TO WEAK TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING OUR WAY COMBINED  
WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) OVER THE WESTERN  
GULF SENDING LARGE SCALE MOTIONS FROM THE GULF TOWARDS ARKANSAS.  
THIS LARGE SCALE CONVERGENCE HAS LED TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS OF  
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MEASURED BY THE LITTLE ROCK MORNING WEATHER  
BALLOON, AND SATELLITE AND MESOSCALE SOUNDING ANALYSES. REGIONAL  
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHWEST  
ARKANSAS CONSISTENT WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) THAT  
RESULTED FROM THE EXTENSIVE LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM THUNDERSTORMS  
THAT PRODUCED EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL  
OKLAHOMA THAT LED TO FLASH FLOODING PRIMARILY AROUND THE SALLISAW  
AREA. THIS MCV, NOW THAT IT EXISTS, COULD SET THE STAGE FOR NEW,  
FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL  
AND FLOODING ACROSS ARKANSAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY.  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FOR WHAT AN MCV IS AND HOW IT WORKS, PLEASE  
READ THE PASSAGE BELOW. IF YOU'RE NOT INTERESTED, SKIP TO  
WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW IT.  
 
AN MCV IS THE ATMOSPHERE'S RESPONSE TO PROLONGED INTENSE,  
OFTEN SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A THUNDERSTORMS WHO  
PURPOSE FOR EXISTING IS TO REMOVE AN IMBALANCE IN THE ATMOSPHERE.  
THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF IMBALANCE IS USUALLY TOO MUCH HOT AND HUMID  
AIR NEAR THE GROUND AND TOO MUCH COOL OR COLD AIR ALOFT. IN ORDER  
TO GET RID OF THE IMBALANCE, THE ATMOSPHERE LITERALLY MOVES THE  
WARM AIR UP AND COLD AIR DOWN. IN OUR ATMOSPHERE THIS IS DONE MOST  
EFFICIENTLY BY EXCHANGING HEAT STORED IN WATER. THUNDERSTORMS TAKE  
THE HOT WATER VAPOR AND LIFT AND COOL IT AND AS THE WATER VAPOR  
RISES AND COOLS IT EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SATURATION. WHEN THE WATER  
VAPOR TURNS BACK INTO WATER DROPLETS ALL OF THE HEAT THAT  
INITIALLY CAUSED THE WATER TO BECOME A VAPOR IN THE FIRST PLACE IS  
RELEASED INTO THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. OF COURSE AS RAIN FALLS TO THE  
GROUND IT DRAGS DOWN COOLER AIR FROM ALOFT TO THE GROUND, BUT FOR  
THE MCV, IT'S INCEPTION IS DUE TO THE RELEASE OF HEAT ALOFT.  
 
THIS RELEASE OF HEAT ALOFT IS THE ATMOSPHERE DOING ITS JOB,  
CONVERTING HEAT NEAR THE GROUND TO HEAT THOUSANDS OF FEET ABOVE  
THE GROUND. AS THE HEAT BUILDS UP THOUSANDS OF FEET ALOFT, IT  
EVENTUALLY REACHES A CRITICAL POINT. TOO MUCH HEAT RELEASE ALOFT  
CREATES A NEW IMBALANCE, BUT THIS TIME IN TERMS OF PRESSURE. HOT  
AIR IS LESS DENSE THAN WARM AIR SO IF YOU GET TOO MUCH HEAT  
RELEASED ALOFT, THE PRESSURE DROPS. THIS CREATES A LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM ALOFT. IF THAT LOW PRESSURE IMBALANCE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH  
IT STARTS TO SPIN AND DRAW AIR INTO ITSELF IN AN EFFORT TO ONCE  
AGAIN REMOVE THIS NEW IMBALANCE. THIS BASIC PROCESS DESCRIBES HOW  
HURRICANES FORM AND ARE MAINTAINED, BUT ON A SMALLER SCALE THIS  
IS WHY MCVS DEVELOP IN AREAS OF PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCV IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE ONCE IT EXISTS, IT  
TENDS TO CAUSE NEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALL AROUND IT BY  
DRAWING IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM MANY MILES AWAY INTO ITS CENTER  
TO FILL IN THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THE PRESENCE OF AN MCV  
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM THIS MORNING'S STORMS COULD SET THE  
STAGE FOR MORE FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE  
MCV MOVES AWAY FROM RAIN COOLED AIR IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TOWARDS  
THE WARM AND HUMID ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE.  
 
WITH NEAR RECORD VALUES OF DEEP MOISTURE MEASURED OVER THE STATE  
AND AN MCV MOVING INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON,  
ONE OF OUR PRIMARY CONCERNS IS GOING TO BE NEW AREAS OF FOCUSED  
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ACROSS ARKANSAS FROM  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. OF COURSE THUNDERSTORMS  
THAT DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY WILL TEND TO  
BECOME VERY TALL BECAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE IS SO WARM THIS TIME OF  
YEAR. WITH LITTLE WIND SHEAR IN PLACE TO HELP KEEP THE UPDRAFT AND  
DOWNDRAFT OF STORMS SEPARATED IT'S VERY LIKELY THAT SOME OF THESE  
TALL STORMS WILL CAUSE THEMSELVES TO COLLAPSE AS EACH INDIVIDUAL  
STORM'S RAINFALL CAN KNOCK THE FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR OUT OF  
THE WAY. WHEN THIS HAPPENS THE STORM COLLAPSES ALL AT ONCE SENDING  
WIND DOWN TO THE GROUND AS A MICROBURST. AS A RESULT, MICROBURSTS  
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ARE THINGS WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH  
CLOSELY ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE NEITHER THREAT IS  
EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD, TODAY IS THE DAY WHERE WE ARE  
EXPECTING THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF STORMS ACROSS THE STATE, SO FOLKS  
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEATHER IF THEY HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS  
TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CALLS FOR LESS STORMS EACH  
DAY IN THIS FORECAST.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...  
 
THE TROUGH THAT IS HELPING PUT THE SQUEEZE ON ARKANSAS TODAY IS  
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE WE MAY NOT  
NOTICE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE AT THE SURFACE IN TERMS OF CHANGES IN  
HEAT AND HUMIDITY, SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET ALOFT, THIS TROUGH WILL  
BE DRAGGING SOME DRIER AIR IN OVER THE STATE FROM THE NORTH  
TOWARDS THE SOUTH. ON WEDNESDAY THIS WILL MAKE AFTERNOON  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE  
STATE AND LESS LIKELY OVER THE NORTH. STORMS ARE STILL TECHNICALLY  
POSSIBLE ALL OVER THE STATE BECAUSE THE TROUGH ISN'T REALLY STRONG  
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ANYTHING, BUT WITH THE DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE  
NORTH, THOSE THUNDERSTORM ATTEMPTS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS  
OF THE DAY ARE MORE LIKELY TO FAIL. AT ANY RATE, WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON, WE'LL STILL SEE SOME STORMS, BUT THE COVERAGE IS  
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LOWER THAN TODAY, EVEN ACROSS SOUTHERN  
ARKANSAS.  
 
BY THURSDAY THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL HAVE SENT ITS DRY AIR ALOFT OVER  
THE ENTIRE STATE OF ARKANSAS. THIS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
IN PLACE ALOFT, IT CERTAINLY WON'T FEEL ANY DRIER ON THE GROUND,  
AND WE SHOULD SEE A GREATLY DIMINISHED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON  
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON'S AS A RESULT.  
BECAUSE IT'S STILL HOT AND HUMID ON THE GROUND, ISOLATED STORMS  
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH MICROBURSTS AND LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAINFALL POSING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. MOST PEOPLE ARE  
EXPECTED TO MISS THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY THE END  
OF THE WEEK. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT, THAT DOES MEAN LESS CLOUD COVER  
OVERALL WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.  
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB SLOWLY, A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY AS  
WE MOVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  
 
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...  
 
ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
PLAINS, SENDING SOME WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN ACROSS THE STATE BEGINNING ON SATURDAY. ON  
SATURDAY THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN AFTERNOON  
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF  
THE STATE. ON SUNDAY, ASSUMING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MADE IT  
INTO ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THAT WEAK  
FRONT MAY SEND THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS FOR  
REDEVELOPING STORMS ON SUNDAY. IT'S HARD TO SAY FOR SURE WHERE THE  
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS IT DEPENDS ON  
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY SEND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SUFFICE TO SAY WE'LL HAVE AN UPTICK IN  
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, BUT IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO CHECK FORECAST  
UPDATES TO SEE WHERE WE CAN REFINE THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE  
STORMS IN LATER FORECASTS. THE HAZARDS/THREATS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE  
SAME AS WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS WORK WEEK - MICROBURSTS AND  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY FLOODING.  
 
AS WE GET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS AS THROUGH A SLOW MOVING  
TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ONCE AGAIN PROMOTING  
A VERY DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER ARKANSAS. AT THE VERY LEAST  
WE'LL SEE A CONTINUATION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS DRIVEN BY  
THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY, BUT WE COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE AN  
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IF THE TROUGH FOCUSES ACTIVITY  
OVER THE STATE. FOR NOW THE FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAN WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT FROM PEAK HEATING  
ALONE DRIVING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IT'S THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO  
TO PAN OUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST.  
 
CAVANAUGH  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED BUT COULDN'T RULE  
OUT SPOTTY FG WHICH COULD LOWER CATEGORIES BUT DUE TO LOW  
CONFIDENCE, DID NOT INCLUDE AT ANY TERMINALS AT THIS POINT.  
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WED. BEST POPS SHOULD BE  
OVER SRN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF AR. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE AWAY FROM TSRA.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BATESVILLE AR 71 89 71 92 / 20 40 10 40  
CAMDEN AR 72 88 71 92 / 40 70 20 50  
HARRISON AR 68 88 69 90 / 10 30 10 20  
HOT SPRINGS AR 71 88 71 93 / 40 50 10 40  
LITTLE ROCK AR 73 88 74 92 / 30 50 10 40  
MONTICELLO AR 73 87 73 91 / 40 70 20 60  
MOUNT IDA AR 70 88 71 92 / 30 50 10 30  
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 69 88 70 90 / 10 30 10 30  
NEWPORT AR 72 90 74 92 / 20 40 10 40  
PINE BLUFF AR 72 87 72 92 / 40 60 20 50  
RUSSELLVILLE AR 71 90 72 93 / 20 40 10 20  
SEARCY AR 71 89 71 92 / 30 40 10 40  
STUTTGART AR 74 87 74 92 / 40 50 20 40  
 

 
   
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...CAVANAUGH  
LONG TERM....CAVANAUGH  
AVIATION...70  
 
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