781
FXUS64 KLZK 291813
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
113 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
-ONE MORE DAY OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES DECREASE THIS WEEKEND.
-SOME ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WITH A COUPLE OF NEARBY SFC LOWS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
SLOW MOVING H500 TROUGH CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE STATE,
ANOTHER DAY OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. MOST
LIKELY COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SIMILAR TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING. THESE DOWNPOURS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY PW VALUES
AROUND 2.00" AND MINIMAL SHEAR IN PLACE. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
FELL ON THURSDAY. ATTENTION WILL NEED TO BE PAID TO NORTH-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE DAY IN CASE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OCCURS.
CAM DATA SUGGESTS THAT AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING PRECIP ACROSS
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY, ADDITIONAL PRECIP MAY
IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS WOULD FAVOR A LOWER
OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS NORTHEAST AR HAS
SEEN LESS RAINFALL RECENTLY.
GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, H500 RIDGING
MAY ATTEMPT TO BUILD OVER THE STATE AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS
WILL HELP REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S F AND TD VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S F
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE ISN'T VERY HIGH REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NEW ENGLAND
LOOKS TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PROVIDE NW FLOW AS FAR WEST AS THE OHIO VALLEY, POTENTIALLY CLOSER
TO ARKANSAS DEPENDING ON THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE. IF
NOTHING ELSE, IT WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS THE H500 RIDGE TOWARD THE
WEST. THIS SETUP MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WAS INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MAINLY CNTRL,
NRN, AND NERN AR. DURING PERIODS OF CONVECTION, CIGS/VIS MAY
BECOME MVFR, WITH PREVAILING VFR TODAY. TONIGHT, CIGS/VIS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH NRN SITES DOWN TO IFR. CIGS ELSEWHERE
SHOULD DECREASE TO MVFR CNTRL AND S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 66 84 68 86 / 20 10 30 40
CAMDEN AR 67 92 70 93 / 20 10 0 10
HARRISON AR 64 83 66 86 / 30 50 30 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 68 90 71 91 / 20 20 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 67 87 70 89 / 20 20 20 10
MONTICELLO AR 68 90 71 92 / 20 20 20 30
MOUNT IDA AR 68 89 72 89 / 20 10 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 64 83 66 86 / 20 20 40 20
NEWPORT AR 67 85 68 88 / 30 10 30 20
PINE BLUFF AR 68 89 71 91 / 20 20 20 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 68 88 71 90 / 30 30 20 20
SEARCY AR 66 86 68 88 / 20 10 20 20
STUTTGART AR 69 87 71 89 / 10 20 20 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70
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