282
FXUS64 KLZK 121727 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1127 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 118 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
-DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
-A NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE STATE THIS WEEKEND.
-DRYING OUT ON SUNDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND MOST OF
FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE
COOLEST READINGS ACROSS NE ARKANSAS DUE TO SFC RIDGING IN
POSITION TO THE EAST OF THE STATE BENEATH NW FLOW ALOFT. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE W/SW WHERE MID-LEVEL RIDGING
AND SRLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL BE IN PLACE.
THINGS WILL CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AS AN H500 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM THE SW US ON FRIDAY TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. A CORRESPONDING SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH. AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES, THE FLOW WILL TURN OUT OF THE SW AND MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ARKANSAS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE AND ENHANCED MID-
LEVEL FLOW, THIS WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT. GENERAL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 1.5-2.5 INCH WITH SOME UPPER
END PROBS SHOWING AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS, WITH SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST/EAST TX SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS SW AR. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LIMITED NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
INSTABILITY, MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WILL HELP LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
ARKANSAS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH H500 ZONAL TO SW
FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR CONDNS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE NEW TAF PD, W/ PASSING
HIGH CLOUD COVG ACRS NRN AR. SERLY TO ERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU
THURS EVNG, W/ WINDS BCMG LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 38 64 46 60 / 0 0 50 90
CAMDEN AR 45 73 55 71 / 0 10 20 80
HARRISON AR 40 66 49 58 / 0 10 80 100
HOT SPRINGS AR 42 69 53 68 / 0 10 50 90
LITTLE ROCK AR 41 67 50 68 / 0 10 50 90
MONTICELLO AR 45 71 55 72 / 0 0 20 70
MOUNT IDA AR 42 70 53 66 / 0 20 60 100
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 37 65 46 57 / 0 0 70 90
NEWPORT AR 39 64 48 61 / 10 0 50 80
PINE BLUFF AR 42 69 53 71 / 0 0 30 80
RUSSELLVILLE AR 42 68 51 64 / 0 10 70 90
SEARCY AR 37 66 47 65 / 0 0 50 80
STUTTGART AR 42 66 52 69 / 0 0 40 80
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...72
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