854
FXUS64 KLZK 062334 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
634 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
-STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
-LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY ALONG AN AXIS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40 CORRIDOR
-COOLER/CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE REST OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
-ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH/SE LATE THIS TUE
EVENING...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION OBSERVED SO FAR WITH THIS
EVENT OCCURRING POST FRONTAL. MID-LEVEL WARM AIR/CAPPING INVERSION
CONTINUES TO HOLD...COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
RESULTING IN LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS
HAS KEPT MOST ACTIVITY AT BAY. SHR HAS REMAINED IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH
HOWEVER...WITH 40-60+ KTS...WHICH HAS CAUSED MOST STRUGGLING
UPDRAFTS TO SHEAR APART. AS A RESULT...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SVR WX
HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO
BRIEFLY SVR CONVECTION MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT IF THE FRONT AND LLJ CAN OVERCOME THE INCREASING CIN.
WHAT MAY DEVELOP COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS BEHIND THE
FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS ON WED. THE AREAS THAT
COULD SEE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD BE IN A GENERAL EAST/WEST
CORRIDOR OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS...OR MAYBE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-40
CORRIDOR. THIS MAY CONTINUE EVEN AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE AR/LA BORDER SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AS
ADVERTISED IN THE LATER RUNS OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.
GIVEN THE FRONT SHOULD LIKELY BE ALONG OR EVEN SOUTH OF THE AR/LA
BORDER BY LATE MORNING ON WED...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SVR WX SHOULD
REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA FOR WED DAYLIGHT HRS. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/BRIEFLY SVR ELEVATED
CONVECTION THAT COULD GENERATE A LARGE HAIL THREAT. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE MORE LIMITED TO FAR SERN SECTIONS.
COOLER AND CALMER CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
DO RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND AS A NEW COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SUN. MORE STRONG TO SVR
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR. HOWEVER...DETAILS REGARDING EXACT SEVERE WEATHER DETAILS WILL
NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
MVFR CONDNS WL PERSIST OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE FA, W/ RECENT
VISSAT IMGRY SHOWING LOW TO MID LVL CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO MOVE
ACRS THE FA. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE FM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURS, W/ GENERALLY VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILING THRU THE PD. OCSNL
SHRA WL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACRS THE FA THRU WED EVNG, BUT SHOULD
DECREASE IN COVG OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 46 70 48 77 / 10 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 50 73 50 77 / 40 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 41 68 46 78 / 10 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 48 73 49 77 / 10 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 49 70 50 77 / 10 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 52 72 51 76 / 60 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 47 73 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 42 68 45 78 / 10 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 49 70 50 77 / 10 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 50 70 50 77 / 30 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 48 72 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 46 70 46 77 / 10 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 52 69 51 76 / 20 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...72
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