170
FXUS64 KLZK 031040
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
540 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
-DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY (SUNDAY) INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY.
-UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO ARKANSAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
-RAIN AND POSSIBLE STORM CHANCES RETURN ON SATURDAY TO ARKANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
SUNDAY/MONDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A H500 SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER ARKANSAS. A CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN REGION OF THE CONUS AND A TROF AXIS WILL BECOME
POSITIVELY-TILTED OVER THE NORTHERN REGION OF THE CONUS AND CONTINUE
TO SWING OVER THE WESTERN REGION OF THE CONUS OVER THIS PERIOD.
AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN MISSOURI DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF FAIR WEATHER OVERALL WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARM AIR INTO ARKANSAS.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A H500 POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF AXIS WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS APPROACHING THE REGION. AT THE
SFC, A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WITH A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-WEST WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.
EXPECT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THAT A PARAMETER
SPACE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT. INITIALLY,
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE QUESTIONABLE ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE, BUT AS THESE SFC FEATURES MOVE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A MORE FAVORABLE REGION FOR ASCENT
GIVEN A PROGGED PRESENT LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.
A WARM AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ARKANSAS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE ARKANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER AS DISCRETE CELLS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LINEAR THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING TIMEFRAME ON TUESDAY AND THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BECOME
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE POSITIONED
ACROSS THE STATE AND A LINE OR COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN
PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS WITH A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. A WINDOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIST
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FOR SEVERE STORMS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE PARAMETER SPACE AND POSE A RISK OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A SPLIT FLOW ZONAL JET WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
ARKANSAS WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE BY THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AT
THE SFC, A SERIES OF CLOSE PROXIMITY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE
A SOURCE OF LIFT INTO SATURDAY.
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BEFORE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD OF SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GUST IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS AT THE SITES OF KHRO, KHOT, AND KADF
DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL BE PRESENT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD ON MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SITES OF KHRO,
KBPK, KHOT, KADF, AND KLIT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 76 59 81 62 / 0 0 0 50
CAMDEN AR 79 55 80 62 / 0 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 78 59 79 61 / 10 0 0 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 79 56 79 63 / 0 0 0 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 78 58 80 62 / 0 0 0 30
MONTICELLO AR 78 57 81 62 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 79 57 79 63 / 0 0 0 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 77 58 80 60 / 0 0 0 60
NEWPORT AR 76 58 81 63 / 0 0 0 40
PINE BLUFF AR 79 56 80 62 / 0 0 0 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 80 57 81 62 / 0 0 0 30
SEARCY AR 77 55 81 60 / 0 0 0 40
STUTTGART AR 78 58 81 63 / 0 0 0 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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