201
FXUS64 KLZK 011909
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
209 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
-WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD TEMPS LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
-SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
-MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
-CHANCE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK NEXT WEEK AS CLOSER TO NORMAL
TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVE IN BEHIND COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
DISCUSSION...
INTO THE MID AND LATE WEEK THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TO NEAR RECORD TEMPS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN WILL
BE LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SAT BEING THE PRIMARY RAIN MAKER.
..WEDS
MOSTLY CLR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WEDS WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN MID
TO UPPER 80S DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING THE 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 20KTS POSSIBLE W/ STRONGEST GUSTS N AR. SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL FORM OFF TO OUR W DURING THE
AFTERNOON AROUND A LOW CENTERED TO THE E OF DENVER. THESE WILL
BEGIN APPROACHING THE FA BY MIDNIGHT. AS STORMS APPROACH THEY WILL
RUN INTO A STOUT 800MB INVERSION AND BECOME ELEVATED AND WEAKER.
MOST WILL BECOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AR SUNRISE THURS.
..THURS
THE LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE N TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND REMOVE
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING FROM THE AREA UNTIL THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL GREATLY LIMIT CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DECENTLY BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT (~1250-1500J/KG).
STRONGEST SHEAR WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE N CLOSER TO THE LOW,
WIDESPREAD 20-30KT DEEP SHEAR COULD SUSTAIN A STRONGER UPDRAFT OR
TWO BUT WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED. GUSTY
GRADIENT WINDS APPROACHING 30KTS (40KTS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
POSSIBLE) ACROSS N AR WILL HELP MIX DOWN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S NEAR 80.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..FRI
TO ROUND OFF THE WORK WEEK ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR RECORD TEMPS
ESPECIALLY IN E AND N AR BEFORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLDFRONT PASSAGE
ON SAT WILL COOL THE AREA OFF FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AN ISOLATED DOWNPOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WARM MOIST AIR STREAMS
NORTH BUT WILL NOT BE OVERLY LIKELY (<20%). HIGHS TO APPROACH MID TO
UPPER 80S ONE LAST TIME BEFORE THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD LATER IN THE DAY AS CLDFRNT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST.
..SAT/SUN
ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE ROCKIES FRI AFTERNOON AND PULL TO THE
N ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A CLDFNT
ACROSS OUR FA AND BRING OUR BIGGEST SHOT OF RAIN OVER THE LAST
MONTH. SOME LIMITED BUOYANCY (<250J/KG) WILL BUILD IN WITH A WEAK
WARM SECTOR. A STEEP LOW LVL INVERSION WILL PROHIBIT ANY
WIDESPREAD PREFRONTAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK DEEP
SHEAR, SFC-3K <30KTS, WILL KEEP THE SEVERE RISK AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LOW. THE MAIN ROUND OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
FRI. THIS WILL QUICKLY BECOME LINEAR ALONG THE CLDFRNT 24HR QPFS
ARE WIDESPREAD 1- 1.5IN. A CORRIDOR OF 2+IN HAS BEEN FAVORED IN
CENTRAL AR OVER THE LAST FEW CYCLES, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON
WHERE THE PEAK RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR. SEVERE RISK WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE RATHER CONDITIONAL. WITH MOST OF THE SHEAR BEING
IN THE LOWEST 1KM SOME SHALLOW SPIN WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE WILL
BE POSSIBLE BUT AN OTHERWISE UNIMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP
SEVERE CHANCES LOW. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NNW AND
TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.
..MON/TUE/WED
INTO NEXT WEEK ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE. MIN RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW THE 30TH PERCENTILE AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY GET
STRONGER THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL AND
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE FA BY MID WEEK PROMOTING YET
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. ISOLATED,
WEAKENING TSRA MAY AFFECT EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
LATE IN THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 85 68 80 66 / 10 10 70 50
CAMDEN AR 86 66 80 65 / 0 20 60 10
HARRISON AR 83 65 79 63 / 30 40 80 60
HOT SPRINGS AR 86 66 80 64 / 0 20 70 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 86 67 81 66 / 10 20 60 40
MONTICELLO AR 86 67 83 68 / 0 10 50 20
MOUNT IDA AR 84 64 80 64 / 10 30 80 50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 84 66 80 63 / 30 20 80 60
NEWPORT AR 85 68 81 67 / 10 10 60 50
PINE BLUFF AR 86 66 81 65 / 0 10 60 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 86 66 82 65 / 10 30 80 60
SEARCY AR 86 65 81 64 / 0 10 60 40
STUTTGART AR 85 68 81 67 / 0 10 60 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...55
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