545
FXUS64 KLZK 032343
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
643 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
-ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING IN NW AND
W AR.
-RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO NEXT WEEK
-ELEVATED FIRE DANGER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..FRI
VERY SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK, A LOW FORMING OFF THE ROCKIES
WILL PUSH NE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING CLDFRNT WILL BE THE
MAIN FORCING FOR STORMS TO FORM OUT TO OUR W DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
STATIONARY FRONT S OF KC WILL PULL N AND OPEN UP THE WARM SECTOR TO
THE N AND W. I-30 WILL EFFECTIVELY ACT AS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
WARM SECTOR. SOME STORM INITIATION IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN WSTRN AR MID AFTERNOON IN A DECENTLY BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT
WITH SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG. SOME LINGERING CIN IN THE
AREA COULD PROMOTE A MORE ISOLATED NATURE IN THESE STORMS AS THEY
ARE FORMING. HOWEVER, LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY MEAGER AT ALL
LEVELS AND STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THIS. DECENTLY CURVED BUT
SHORT HODOGRAPHS HAVE MOST OF THE SHEER AND HELICITY (20-
25KTS/120M^2/S^2) FOR THESE STORMS IN THE LOWEST 3KM, AND LACK OF
WINDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS COULD MAKE THINGS MESSY WITHIN THESE, IF
THEY CAN FORM, QUICKLY. AS THE LINE APPROACHES, THIS PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MUCH LESS FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS AS
DIURNAL INVERSIONS SET IN AND WILL TRANSITION FROM AN ALL HAZARDS TO
MAINLY HAIL THREAT.
THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE AN APPROACHING QLCS FROM THE WEST. AGAIN MUCH
LIKE EARLIER IN THE WEEK, THIS LINE WILL BE DYING OUT AS IT
APPROACHES THE CWA. SURFACE INVERSIONS BEGIN TO TAKE ROOT BY THE
TIME THE SYSTEM MAKES IT TO THE WSTRN EDGE OF THE CWA AND STORMS
WILL BECOME ELEVATED THE FURTHER EAST THEY PUSH. THERE WILL BE A
SHORT WINDOW FOR THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE IN OUR CWA BUT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON IF/HOW LONG THEY CAN REMAIN SURFACE BASED.
UNFORTUNATELY QPFS HAVE CONTINUED THE STEADY DOWNTREND TO AROUND 1-2
IN. ACROSS THE STATE, SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH TRAINING OR A PREFRONTAL STORM.
..SAT
SATURDAY WILL BRING A RELATIVELY MESSY DAY FOR THE STATE. SOME HEAVY
SHOWER AND T'STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED FROM THE DECAYING LINE FROM
THE NIGHT BEFORE. THE LINE WILL MAKE A PUSH TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
IN SE AR. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SURGE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
BRINGING MORE ENERGY NORTH MID AFTERNOON. THIS SURGE WILL BRING
SBCAPE VALUES BACK UP INTO THE 1500J/KG RANGE. RECENT TRENDS HAVE
GONE LATER AND THE LINE ORGANIZING MORE INTO MS/LA. THE MAJORITY OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLEARED OUT BY MIDNIGHT AND TEMPS WILL QUICKLY
BEGIN TO DROP BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH A 20-
25 DEGREE TEMP DROP BACK DOWN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS.
..SUN/MON/TUES
DRY AND CALMER CONDITIONS BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
CLDFRNT. TEMPS WILL FINALLY DROP TO MORE SEASONABLE MON AS A NOSE OF
A RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. FIRE WEATHER RISK
COULD BE ELEVATED THROUGH THE MIDWEEK AS MIN RHS WILL DROP TO NEAR
THE 30TH PERCENTILE BEHIND THE CLDFRONT. THE BIG LIMITER IN FIRE
RISK IN THE EARLY WEEK WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. SUSTAINED SFC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10MPH WITH GUSTS STRUGGLING TO GET
ABOVE 15MPH UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. TUES A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PASS TO OUR N. INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SHIFT
WINDS FROM NNW TO NNE AND PUSH IN A BIT COOLER AIR KEEPING HIGHS
DOWN IN THE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN NE AR.
..WED/THURS
BY MIDWEEK THE RIDGE WILL BE BLANKETED ACROSS THE REGION, AND IT
BRINGS WITH IT EVEN MORE CALM AND DRY WEATHER. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TEMPS AND MIN RH VALUES, BY THURS ELEVATED
FIRE RISK WILL DIMINISH AS MIN RH VALUES RETURN TO ABOVE 40TH AND
50TH PERCENTILES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
EXPECT LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY TO MVFR AND IFR ACROSS ALL
SITES OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING AND
LASTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OF SATURDAY BEFORE CIGS BEGIN TO
LIFT AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
CREATE A WIND SHIFT OF SURFACE WINDS PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT TSRA AND THEN SHRA WITH THIS COLD FRONT
AS IT TRACK ACROSS THE STATE FROM LATE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 60 70 44 68 / 90 100 10 0
CAMDEN AR 65 74 45 69 / 40 90 30 0
HARRISON AR 53 62 40 65 / 100 90 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 59 70 44 69 / 60 100 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 63 72 46 69 / 60 90 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 68 77 49 69 / 30 100 60 0
MOUNT IDA AR 56 70 44 69 / 80 90 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 54 64 40 66 / 90 90 0 0
NEWPORT AR 63 72 44 66 / 70 90 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 66 75 45 67 / 40 90 30 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 57 70 43 70 / 100 100 0 0
SEARCY AR 62 72 44 69 / 70 90 10 0
STUTTGART AR 67 74 46 66 / 40 100 30 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page