034
FXUS64 KLZK 280736
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
236 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE
DELTA AND THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SEVERAL
COUNTIES ARE UNDER AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME SMALL
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN.
- HEAT RELATED HEADLINES MAY NEED BE BE REISSUED/EXPANDED LATE
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
AFTER SEVERAL EVENINGS/OVERNIGHTS DEALING WITH CONVECTION COMING IN
FROM THE WEST, CONDITIONS ARE MUCH QUIETER ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON
THE WARM SIDE WITH MID TO UPPER 70S COMMON AT THIS TIME.
PERIOD INITIATES WITH SPRAWLING H5 TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND SUBSEQUENTLY UPPER RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD ALONG THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMING
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BY LATE TUESDAY WITH TROUGHING COVERING THE
MAJORITY OF THE WEST AND SIGNIFICANT RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH THE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY OVER THE FA, KEEPING PLENTY OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY IN PLACE. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE OVER THE CENTURY MARK
FOR MOST OF THE FA. THE DELTA COUNTIES AND THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY
WILL SEE HEAT INDICES OVER 105 DEGREES AND A HEAT ADVISORY HAS
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. SEVERAL COUNTIES ARE ALSO IN AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH
WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP 110 DEGREES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE NEAR ZERO THROUGH TUESDAY AS WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL SQUASH
ANY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THE ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE JUST ENOUGH TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT A WEAK MOISTURE TAP DEVELOPS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SE QUADRANT OF THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. LOW POPS WILL BE AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE FA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. AMOUNTS
WILL BE MINIMAL AND LARGELY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER
90S THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY BE EVEN HIGHER COURTESY OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AND EXPAND FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH OF WHERE THEY ARE CURRENTLY IN
AFFECT. NO CHANGES IN THE CONFIGURATION OF THE HEAT HEADLINES WILL
BE MADE THIS MORNING BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE REASSESSED MID TO
LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND A LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 93 77 95 77 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 95 77 96 76 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 90 76 91 75 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 94 78 95 77 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 95 79 96 78 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 95 78 96 77 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 92 77 93 77 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 91 75 92 74 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 95 77 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 95 78 96 76 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 95 79 96 77 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 95 77 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 95 79 96 77 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
ARZ007-008-016-017-025-031-039-044>046-056-057-064-065-069-121-
122-130-138-230-238.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ024-
123-223.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
ARZ032>034-047.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR ARZ032>034-047.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...56
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page