441
FXUS64 KLZK 032330 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
-DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
-UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO ARKANSAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
-STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
-RAIN CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME GUIDANCE SIGNALING THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
SATELLITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
NATURAL STATE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE STATE TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE STATE
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN US LATET TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE
STATE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY.
ATTENTION TURNS TO TUESDAY AS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF ARKANSAS. AN ANALYSIS OF WATER
VAPOR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WITHIN LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE STATE WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE WITH THE LATEST MODELS
RUNS SHOW SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG
ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50-60KT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES.
THE INITIAL STORM MODE FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE OR
SEMI-DISCRETE BUT WILL QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINE OR BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE WINDS BEING PERPENDICULAR
TO FRONT. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, BUT WHILE STORMS
THAT ARE DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALSO
HAVE A LARGE HAIL THREAT ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE OF A TORNADO OR
TWO.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND
SUNSET ON TUESDAY EVENING, THEN INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS,
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE AGAIN BE QUITE UNSTABLE. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE ORDER OF 1500-2500 J/KG
WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE ORDER OF 55-65 KTS WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES. THE STORM MODE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS MORE CONDUCIVE TO
STORM DUSTERS AND OR LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY THREAT ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS, BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING/ NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REST OF THE
STATE ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ROUGHLY 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH,
THEN SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON FRIDAY, THEN THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A CUT OFF LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE
EAST AND DIG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ACROSS THE WESTERN US
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE CUT OFF LOW WILL
BECOME AN OPEN WAVE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS BEFORE TREKKING AROUND THE
STATE WEEKEND POSSIBLY BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
STATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDNS WL PREVAIL THRU THE NEW TAF PD. SWRLY WINDS SHOULD
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, W/ LLWS BECOMING MORE PREVALENT AT CNTRL AND NRN
TERMINALS BY 04/07Z. VERY GUSTY SWRLY WINDS WL RESUME LATER MON
MRNG BY 04/15Z, W/ SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS, AND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KTS AT TIMES. MAINLY MID TO HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER WL
BE NOTED THRU THE PD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 59 81 62 76 / 0 0 50 60
CAMDEN AR 55 81 62 84 / 0 0 10 10
HARRISON AR 60 80 60 75 / 0 0 60 70
HOT SPRINGS AR 56 80 63 81 / 0 0 20 50
LITTLE ROCK AR 57 81 62 80 / 0 0 20 50
MONTICELLO AR 57 81 62 83 / 0 0 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 56 78 63 81 / 0 0 10 50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 58 81 60 74 / 0 0 70 80
NEWPORT AR 59 82 63 77 / 0 0 50 70
PINE BLUFF AR 56 81 62 82 / 0 0 20 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 57 81 62 79 / 0 0 30 50
SEARCY AR 55 81 60 78 / 0 0 40 50
STUTTGART AR 58 81 63 81 / 0 0 20 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...72
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