751
FXUS64 KLZK 181744
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1244 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
-SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE
AREA. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY
-CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEARLY EVERY DAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING MORE
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRI
-HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...THEN SOMEWHAT COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
LOOKING FOR A NEAR REPEAT IN THE FORECAST THIS THU COMPARED TO WHAT
WAS OBSERVED ON WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S...AND CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DO THINK THE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN SECTIONS...WILL BE A BIT BETTER.
EXPECT MORE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA FOR WRN SECTIONS...WHICH WILL BE
RESULT OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SVR WX IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD
BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS WRN/NWRN
SECTIONS...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE.
BY FRI...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM
THE WEST...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION ON
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT FOR A LARGER PORTION OF THE STATE. GIVEN THIS
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STRONG TO SVR WX TO REMAIN LOW ON FRI.
AGAIN...THIS DOESN'T RULE OUT ANY ISOLATED STRONG/SVR CONVECTION
STILL BEING POSSIBLE HOWEVER.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENTLY NW BY THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION IN
THIS NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME CONTINUED POPS FORECAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. IN FACT...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS A CLOSED
UPPER LOW MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL MOSTLY LIKELY KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN IN THE PAST WEEK...AT
LEAST A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID/LATE SEP. DETAILS ON BEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN HOWEVER...GIVEN TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND WHAT UPPER
WAVES MAY PASS OVERHEAD AND WHEN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE
BRINGING ISOLATED TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEHIND THE INITIAL
DISTURBANCE, A COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD AND INTO THE
STATE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BRINGING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE.
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH CURRENT
THINKING ON TIMING FOR EACH TERMINAL. MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS WITH
BE A BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 66 90 65 92 / 20 40 10 10
CAMDEN AR 67 89 66 93 / 20 40 0 10
HARRISON AR 63 84 63 85 / 50 50 10 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 67 88 66 92 / 30 50 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 69 88 68 91 / 20 30 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 70 92 68 95 / 20 30 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 66 88 64 91 / 40 50 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 64 87 63 88 / 40 40 10 10
NEWPORT AR 68 91 66 92 / 10 30 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 68 91 66 93 / 20 30 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 67 89 66 92 / 40 40 10 10
SEARCY AR 67 90 66 92 / 20 30 10 10
STUTTGART AR 69 89 68 93 / 20 20 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...KELLY
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