981
FXUS64 KLZK 222310
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
610 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
-SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON
-DRIER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING
-MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST OFF AN ON
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
-THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO REMAIN LOW...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE
EARLY THIS FRI MORNING...WITH SOME AREAS OF SHRA NOTED OVER SRN
SECTIONS. A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER NERN TX WILL LIFT NE OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THIS FRI MORNING...RESULTING IN THE ONGOING SHRA OVER
SRN AR DOWNSTREAM OF THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNS OF A WEAK MESO-LOW OVER SRN AR...WITH RECENT HI-
RES GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS FEATURE LIFTING NE OVER SERN INTO ERN AR
THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNRISE. AT THIS SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL
ALSO LIFT NORTH.
BEST POPS THROUGH THIS FRI MORNING WILL BE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE
STATE...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN/ERN SECTIONS IN VICINITY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MESO-LOW. EVENTUALLY...POPS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
NORTH BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS...BUT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE
OVER NRN AR. THE THREAT FOR SEEING SVR CONVECTION REMAINS LOW GIVEN
LACK OF INSTABILITY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TSRA FORECAST. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NE OF THE STATE BY THIS FRI
AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DECREASING TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. POPS DO INCREASE AGAIN FOR SAT AFTERNOON AS A NEW UPPER
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SW IN SW FLOW ALOFT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH OFF AND ON CONVECTION
FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS IS RESULT OF SW
FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING...WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES PASSING OVER THE
REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN...BUT DETAILS REGARDING
ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. EVEN
SO...SOME AREAS MAY SEE 2 TO MORE THAN 3 INCHES OF RAIN BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT OVER 5 TO 7 DAYS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT LIMITED...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ONGOING
DROUGHT FOR MOST AREAS OF AR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVNEING AS SHOWERS CEASE. WITH
THAT SAID, AS CIGS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR, PATCHY DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BRINGING IFR/LIFR VIS RESTRICTIONS TO
MOST TERMINALS. ANY FG THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY LIFT BY SUNRISE
TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 61 81 64 81 / 20 10 40 50
CAMDEN AR 62 84 64 80 / 20 60 60 60
HARRISON AR 59 79 61 80 / 10 70 50 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 62 82 64 81 / 10 60 30 50
LITTLE ROCK AR 62 82 64 80 / 20 40 40 40
MONTICELLO AR 64 84 66 80 / 30 60 60 70
MOUNT IDA AR 62 81 64 81 / 10 70 30 50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 59 80 61 80 / 10 30 50 30
NEWPORT AR 61 83 64 82 / 20 10 30 40
PINE BLUFF AR 63 83 65 80 / 20 50 50 60
RUSSELLVILLE AR 61 82 64 82 / 10 40 40 40
SEARCY AR 59 82 62 81 / 20 10 40 40
STUTTGART AR 64 83 66 80 / 10 30 50 50
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...73
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