259
FXUS64 KLZK 210736
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
236 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2025
COOL AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE EARLY
THIS WED MORNING IN WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE ACTIVE
WX THE PAST FEW DAYS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL SLIDE EAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SRLY
FLOW WILL RETURN BY THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR
THE DAYTIME HRS AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE STATE. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP S/SW THIS EVENING...WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING SE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT. SOME CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH THIS UPPER
WAVE AND FRONT OVER NRN SECTIONS THIS WED EVENING INTO THE EARLY THU
MORNING TIMEFRAME. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BECOME
STRONG/SVR...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT EXPECTED. SOME
DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
DURING THE DAYTIME HRS ON THU...ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO WRN/SWRN
SECTIONS AS THE FRONT SLOWS...AND A WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT
NORTH. THESE FRONTS WILL CONVERGE OVER WRN SECTIONS AS ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE DROP SE OVER WRN AR. MORE AGGRESSIVE NW FLOW WILL ALLOW
THE COLD FRONT TO GAIN SWD MOMENTUM...PUSHING CONVECTION POTENTIAL
BACK SOUTH FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIP WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED ONCE AGAIN AS A NEW WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH OVER
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH POPS INCREASING ACROSS THE NW THEN NRN
SECTIONS LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MON AS THIS FRONT STALLS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE...AND ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD. WHILE
ORGANIZED SVR WX ISN'T EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...A FEW STRONG/SVR TSRA
COULD BE SEEN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO BEEN SEEN GIVEN A STALLED FRONT...AND THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO FALL OVER NRN SECTIONS. HOWEVER...SOME
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT 2 TO MAYBE 4 INCHES
COULD BE SEEN OVER NRN SECTIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COOLER AND LESS ACTIVE CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE SEEN BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST AS A NEW FRONT PUSHES SE THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NORTHERN AR TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH IN THE W/NW
FLOW ALOFT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 82 59 78 54 / 10 30 10 0
CAMDEN AR 87 59 86 60 / 0 0 20 10
HARRISON AR 78 55 73 50 / 10 40 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 86 60 83 58 / 0 0 30 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 85 62 81 58 / 0 0 20 0
MONTICELLO AR 86 62 87 61 / 0 0 20 0
MOUNT IDA AR 86 60 83 58 / 0 0 30 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 78 56 74 50 / 10 50 10 0
NEWPORT AR 83 62 79 55 / 10 30 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 86 61 84 59 / 0 0 20 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 86 60 81 57 / 0 10 30 0
SEARCY AR 84 60 80 55 / 0 20 20 0
STUTTGART AR 84 63 81 59 / 0 0 20 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...67
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