423
FXUS64 KLZK 241108
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
608 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A WINDOW FOR ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARKANSAS
WILL BEGIN THIS MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
- OVERALL, THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WILL HIGHLIGHT INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE STATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
FRIDAY (TODAY) THROUGH MONDAY EVENING:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE PULSES WILL PASS OVER
ARKANSAS FOR THE DURATION OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SPECIFICALLY THE
MOST PRONOUNCED SWTS WILL MOVE OVER ARKANSAS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY TODAY.
TODAY (FRIDAY) WILL BE A TWO-PART POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS ARKANSAS.
FIRST, THE WEAKENING MCS MOVING INTO ARKANSAS WILL POSE A
LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE WITH A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ISOLATED AREAS OF LARGE HAIL, AND A TORNADO
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
SECOND, THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE MCS MAY EITHER ENHANCE OR HINDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
SCENARIO 1: A QUICK MOVING MCS WHICH MOVES FAST THROUGH THE STATE
AND ALLOWS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO BECOME CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ALLOWING STORMS TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A TORNADO OR TWO
AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
SCENARIO 2: A SLOWER MOVING MCS WHICH TRACKS ACROSS ARKANSAS WILL
HINDER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO BECOME CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE AS DAYTIME HEATING WOULD BE SUPPRESSED.
INTO SATURDAY, THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY
ACROSS ARKANSAS. HOWEVER, A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MOVE INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
INTO SUNDAY, A SIMILAR SITUATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS
ARKANSAS WITH A COMPLEX OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND MOVING INTO ARKANSAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TIMEFRAME. ALL HAZARDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE, BUT GREATEST RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
INTO MONDAY, A MUCH MORE CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
MATERIALIZES ACROSS ARKANSAS. A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ENDING UP ACROSS THE MID-WESTERN REGION
OF THE CONUS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY EVENING WITH AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. IN RESPONSE, A WARM
SECTOR WILL OPEN UP ACROSS THE STATE WITH INCREASED SURFACE WARMING
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP STATEWIDE AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WITH ALL
HAZARDS POSSIBLE: LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. THE ACTIVITY ON MONDAY WILL BE COME TO A CLOSE ACROSS THE
NATURAL STATE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
STATE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH SHORTWAVE PULSES
CONTINUING TO TRAVERSE OVER ARKANSAS AND MULTIPLE STATIONARY
BOUNDARIES DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE OVER THIS PERIOD. IT REMAINS TOO
EARLY FOR SPECIFICS, BUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORY TO BE LOWERED ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS TSRA AND RA MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WILL
DROP TERMINALS TO MVFR AND IFR STATEWIDE. SURFACE WIND GUSTS WITHIN
THE STRONGER TSRA MAY EXCEED 35 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 74 59 79 61 / 100 70 20 40
CAMDEN AR 77 61 80 63 / 80 70 30 60
HARRISON AR 73 55 77 59 / 100 30 10 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 73 59 79 61 / 90 70 20 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 75 61 80 63 / 100 80 20 60
MONTICELLO AR 79 63 81 65 / 80 80 30 50
MOUNT IDA AR 73 59 79 61 / 90 60 20 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 73 55 78 59 / 100 40 10 40
NEWPORT AR 73 60 80 62 / 100 70 20 30
PINE BLUFF AR 77 61 80 63 / 90 80 30 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 73 59 80 62 / 100 50 20 60
SEARCY AR 76 59 80 60 / 100 80 20 40
STUTTGART AR 76 63 79 64 / 100 80 30 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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