593
FXUS64 KLZK 172351 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
651 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
-WARM AND HUMID CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
-SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
-MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL
-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, MOSTLY CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN ARKANSAS. A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW-END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
ARKANSAS. BY LATE MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
STATE BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH, IT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE STATE ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TO TRACK
THROUGH WITH RAIN CHANCES LIKELY ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE HEAVIEST ON TUESDAY WITH A
WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD
SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON WHERE CONVECTION TRAINS. THE GOOD
NEWS IS WE NEED THE RAIN TO HELP WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS SO
WIDESPREAD FLOOD IS NOT EXPECTED. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACRS CNTRL AR NEAR 18/00Z, BUT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE FEW HOURS BEYOND 00Z. OVERNIGHT, CIGS
WL FALL LOW VFR LVLS NEAR 3-4KFT AT MOST TERMINALS, AND SOME
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR, BUT HAVE OMITTED MENTIONS FOR
NOW DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. OVC CIGS WL PERSIST INTO MON W/ GUSTY
SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 TO 25 KTS
PERSISTING MON AFTN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 72 86 73 86 / 20 40 20 70
CAMDEN AR 72 88 72 88 / 20 20 30 60
HARRISON AR 71 85 71 82 / 20 30 20 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 72 86 72 85 / 30 30 30 60
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 87 71 86 / 30 20 20 60
MONTICELLO AR 72 88 72 89 / 20 20 20 50
MOUNT IDA AR 74 85 73 83 / 30 30 30 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 70 85 71 83 / 30 30 20 90
NEWPORT AR 72 88 72 88 / 10 30 20 60
PINE BLUFF AR 72 88 72 89 / 30 20 30 60
RUSSELLVILLE AR 71 86 72 84 / 40 40 20 80
SEARCY AR 69 87 70 87 / 30 20 20 60
STUTTGART AR 73 88 73 89 / 20 20 20 60
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...72
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