054
FXUS64 KLZK 190738
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
238 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
-SHOWER AND T'STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
-A MCS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY EVENING.
-GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 3-4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
RECENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THE STATE
ROUGHLY ALONG I-40 EARLY FRIDAY MRNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STALLED SOUTH OF I-40 DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL STEER
A SOON TO DEVELOP MCS IN CENT OK/TX ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT FRI
EVENING.
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT COOLER TEMPS AND PLEASANT DEW POINTS. MRMS
SHOWS SEVERAL CELLS ACROSS THE REGION TO THE WNW. THESE ARE BEING
DRIVEN BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING THE STHRN EDGE OF THE H500 JET
TO OUR NORTH. AS THE JET SAGS FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO DAY BREAK SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS N AR ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT RECENT CAMS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST. A
WRMFRNT IS CURRENT ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN LA SURGING N AND
BRINGING VERY MOIST GULF AIR. THIS FRONT WILL HELP ERODE THE
DIURNAL CAP FRI AM AND GENERATE T'STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN SRTHN
AR. LIMITED SHEAR, <20 KTS BULK SHEAR, SUGGESTS VERY
DISORGANIZED/MESSY STORMS ALONG THE FRONT, BUT PWATS >2IN AND MUCAPE
> 2500J/KG SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT IN COMBINING COLD POOLS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WRMFRNT. D THE APPROACHING MCS'S PATH AND
STRENGTH DEPENDS ON THE COVERAGE AND WORKING OVER OF THE ENVIRONMENT
ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON FRI. OVERALL
WEAK FORCING SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM COLD POOL DRIVEN, MOVING IT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
AND SURGING OUTFLOWS ALONG THE WRMFRONT WOULD LIKELY BREAK THE MCS
INTO MORE OF A QLCS TYPE LINE INTO LA AND A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD
SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. LIMITED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
WRMFRONT WOULD HELP THE MCS MAINTAIN ACROSS THE STATE. HREF QPFS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE FOR SRTHN AR FOR FRI
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. CURRENT 3HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAS
MUCH OF SRTHN AR ABOVE 4IN BEFORE HYDRO CONCERNS, SO BARING STALLING
OR TRAINING STORMS WIDESPREAD FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
LOOKING INTO THE WEEKEND PERSISTENT SRTHLY SFC FLOW WILL AID
MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE STATE. DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL BE BACK
IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE BY SAT EVENING. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME
REMAIN IN THE MID 80S, THIS WILL HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS DEEP MOISTURE DRAWS
NORTHWARD ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF ANOTHER MCS SAT.
THIS ROUND WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SFC LOW FORMING OFF THE ROCKIES AND
THEN MOVING SSE INTO CNTRL TX. THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OR ENTER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SAT BEFORE DECAYING OVERNIGHT. REINVIGORATION
ALONG THE REMNANT BOUNDARY SUN WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD POPS ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE LATER THIS WEEKEND.
NEXT WEEK LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST A MORE
GENERALLY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDWEEK. SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE H500 JET AXIS
REMAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH ALLOWING MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE GREATER FORECAST VICINITY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VFR CONDNS WERE NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE FA W/ SOME HIGH CLOUD COVG
LINGERING OVER CNTRL AR FM EARLIER THURS NIGHT CONVECTION. THRU
THE PD, A STALLED FRNT OVER CNTRL AR WL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
SWRD, AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THRU
THE DAY FRI, MAINLY IMPACTING CNTRL TO SRN TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY MOVE INTO SWRN AR LATER THURS AFTN, AND MOVE EWRD
QUICKLY ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRNT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AT THE MOMENT. OTHERWISE, MVFR CIGS WL SETTLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SWRN TO CNTRL AR BY 12Z FRI MRNG, AND LATER IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS
BY 18Z AT MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WL STAY NERLY THRU THE DAY BEHIND
THE FRNT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 85 67 86 72 / 30 10 30 40
CAMDEN AR 85 71 87 73 / 70 40 50 40
HARRISON AR 82 65 83 70 / 30 10 40 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 84 71 86 73 / 40 30 50 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 84 70 86 73 / 50 20 50 40
MONTICELLO AR 86 72 86 74 / 70 40 50 40
MOUNT IDA AR 83 70 85 73 / 40 20 50 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 83 65 83 70 / 30 10 20 40
NEWPORT AR 86 68 87 72 / 30 10 30 40
PINE BLUFF AR 85 71 86 73 / 50 30 50 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 84 70 86 74 / 40 10 40 50
SEARCY AR 86 68 87 72 / 50 10 30 50
STUTTGART AR 85 72 86 74 / 50 20 50 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...72
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