154
FXUS64 KLZK 132344
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
544 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 108 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
- WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.
- VERY DRY AIR, CRITICALLY DRY SHORT-TERM FUELS, AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP LOCAL WILDFIRE DANGER ELEVATED AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON.
- A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF MORE SEASONABLE
TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
NOT MANY CHANGES TO ADVERTISE TO THE FORECAST, W/ WARMING TRENDS
EXPECTED THRU MID-WEEK PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF AN INITIAL CDFRNT ON
WED, W/ COLDER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURNING THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK.
RECENT OBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSTS DEPICTED SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED
ACRS THE SRN GULF COAST, W/ STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON DECK FOR THE
NATURAL STATE, W/ AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S TODAY. IN ADDITION TO WARMER TEMPS, GUSTY W-SWRLY WINDS
WL OVERSPREAD THE REGION, W/ GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH
OF NRN AR. THIS WL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED THREAT OF
WILDFIRE DANGER AS AREA SHORT TERM FUEL MOISTURE REMAIN VERY DRY
(GENERALLY 10%).
WED, A STRONG CDFRNT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACRS THE STATE THRU THE
DAY, USHERING IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO THE SRN CNTRL US. SOME LOW-
CHC POPS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FROPA WED AFTN TO EVNG, MAINLY ACRS NRN
TO NERN AR, BUT OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL, GENERALLY LESS THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRNT, COLD MORNING LOWS WL OVERSPREAD THE STATE ON THURS MRNG,
W/ AREA TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW TO MID 20S, AND WIND CHILL
VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK, COOLER AND SETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING STAYS ROOTED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGIONS, DRIVING BROAD SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FA. PER THE LATEST
SUITE OF GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE, ANOTHER CDFRNT LOOKS TO MOVE THRU THE
CNTRL US ON SAT, W/ COLDER MORNING TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE ON
SUN MRNG, E.G., LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AND WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACRS NRN AR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVNG AND OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CIGS
LOWER. ADDITIONALLY GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 44 48 23 43 / 60 30 0 0
CAMDEN AR 42 58 25 47 / 10 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 42 45 20 44 / 40 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 43 54 25 47 / 20 20 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 44 53 26 44 / 40 40 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 45 56 27 46 / 10 30 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 44 53 24 49 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 42 45 20 42 / 50 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 43 49 23 41 / 60 40 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 44 55 25 44 / 20 40 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 43 52 24 47 / 20 10 0 0
SEARCY AR 41 51 22 43 / 50 40 0 0
STUTTGART AR 43 53 25 42 / 30 40 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...56
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