879  
FXUS64 KLZK 221959  
AFDLZK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
159 PM CST WED JAN 22 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY  
 
RAIN, SLEET, SNOW, AND FREEZING RAIN WERE ALL NOTED THIS MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE AS PRECIPITATION MOVED EASTWARD  
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD  
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. WHILE ACCUMULATION HAS REMAINED  
GENERALLY LIGHT DUE TO ERODING DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS,  
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS HAVE AIDED IN WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE  
AREA. THIS, COUPLED WITH WARMER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAS  
ALLOWED FOR ALL WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT  
THE DAY.  
 
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION TO  
INCREASE AS ANOTHER VORT MAX SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION  
FROM THE WEST, INTENSIFYING AS IT DOES SO. WHILE THIS WILL RESULT IN  
HIGHER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN, CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION  
WILL BE LESS, AS WARMER AIR IN PLACE PREVAILS. HOWEVER, SOME  
LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ACROSS THE  
NORTHWEST, COULD SEE SOME SLEET, SNOW, AND FREEZING RAIN  
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE,  
ADDITIONAL SLEET AND SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN  
INCH TO AN INCH, AND ADDITIONAL ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY BELOW A  
TENTH OF AN INCH.  
 
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT THE STATE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE  
STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE EASTWARD. HOWEVER, EXPECT SOME  
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, WHICH COULD RESULT  
IN SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT  
AND FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
LIGHT WITH THIS ACTIVITY, AND REMAIN BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH.  
 
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY STAY ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER A  
FEW LOCATIONS COULD TOUCH FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY DIP BELOW. THROUGH  
THE DAY TOMORROW, ANTICIPATE A WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 30S AND LOWER TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE, WITH OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE  
NORTH DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S, ESPECIALLY ACROSS  
THE NORTHWEST. FRIDAY WILL ALSO SEE A WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS  
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE  
STATE, AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF  
ARKANSAS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
 
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS ON TAP FOR THE PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF  
STRONG RIDGES AND TROUGHS SET TO AFFECT ARKANSAS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND  
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS STATES  
BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NATURAL STATE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND  
SUNDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS.  
MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THE TROUGH SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF  
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE  
FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
TROUGH.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY  
NIGHT AS A MASSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE SECTION OF  
THE US PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO  
THE SOUTHEAST US. THE NEXT TROUGH TO AFFECT ARKANSAS WILL FOLLOW ON  
THE HEELS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT EXITS TO THE EAST WITH  
WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES SATURDAY AND  
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO RISE TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL  
VALUES FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BATESVILLE AR 34 39 34 44 / 90 90 20 10  
CAMDEN AR 36 47 36 51 / 90 80 10 0  
HARRISON AR 34 41 31 39 / 90 70 30 10  
HOT SPRINGS AR 35 44 35 47 / 90 80 10 0  
LITTLE ROCK AR 35 42 35 47 / 90 90 10 10  
MONTICELLO AR 37 45 37 50 / 80 90 20 0  
MOUNT IDA AR 36 45 34 46 / 90 70 10 0  
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 34 39 33 40 / 90 80 30 10  
NEWPORT AR 35 40 34 43 / 80 90 20 10  
PINE BLUFF AR 36 43 36 49 / 80 90 10 10  
RUSSELLVILLE AR 34 42 34 45 / 90 70 10 10  
SEARCY AR 34 40 34 46 / 80 90 20 10  
STUTTGART AR 36 42 35 47 / 80 90 20 10  

 
   
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-  
CLEBURNE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-  
STONE-VAN BUREN.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CONWAY-  
LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SCOTT-YELL.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...CROSS / LONG TERM...19  
 
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