189
FXUS64 KLZK 162303
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
503 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
-WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK, WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND TOWARDS RECORD LEVELS AGAIN ON
TUESDAY
-RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS
ANTICIPATED
-SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS AND MAY
PRECEDE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE DUE TO
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
EARLY THIS MORNING. PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
PRECEDE A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL FAVOR
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS THIS INITIAL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST, REBUILDING RIDGING WILL
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY. THIS
NOTICEABLE TREND TOWARDS WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IS DUE TO A
MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO STRONG PACIFIC TROUGHING THAT
CONTINUES TO SLOW IN ANTICIPATION OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK RAIN
EVENT. DUE TO THIS TREND UPWARD IN TEMPERATURES, RECORD HIGHS MAY
COME INTO PLAY AGAIN ON TUESDAY, AS NBM HIGHS ARE REACHING IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE REGION HEADING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING WEAKENS
AGAIN AHEAD OF A MUCH DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT'LL EJECT EAST
OF THE ROCKIES BY MID-WEEK. A MUCH SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THIS
TROUGH AND, IN TURN, A SLOWER SURFACE LOW MOVEMENT CONTINUES TO
PUSH BACK THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE, ESPECIALLY
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WHICH SEEMS TO BE MORE DELAYED TO THE LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE OF THIS SURFACE LOW SUGGESTS
INITIAL FRONTAL OCCLUSION PRIOR TO REACHING ARKANSAS, THUS THIS
MAY JEOPARDIZE THE ROBUSTNESS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE, RESULTING IN A TREND TOWARDS LOWER
RAIN AMOUNTS. THIS IS CURRENTLY THE CASE WHEN ANALYZING VARIOUS
TIMEFRAME/DURATIONS OF NBM PERCENTILE ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WHICH ACROSS THE BOARD SEEMS TO BE AROUND 1.00" OR
MORE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD 1-2" IS
THE MOST LIKELY LATEST FORECAST SCENARIO (50TH PERCENTILE), WHERE
WESTERN ARKANSAS REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE THE HIGHEST
RAIN AMOUNTS. HIGHER END (90TH PERCENTILE) AMOUNTS OF 3-5" ARE
STILL IN PLAY, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 8" STILL
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THUS, THESE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT FAVORING THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME, BUT HONING ON THE DETAILS WILL COME INTO FOCUS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ALIGN FOR THIS
EVENT. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS A BIT AMBIGUOUS AT THIS POINT,
BUT CHECKING OUT VERTICAL PROFILES SHOWS SOME DECENT INSTABILITY
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SO WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND TIMING (SUCH AS TIME OF DAY).
BEYOND THIS EVENT, THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SEEMINGLY
CONTINUE AS THE DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH EVENTUALLY MIGRATES EASTWARD,
PRESUMABLY BRINGING MORE WET WEATHER TO THE REGION SOMETIME THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND/OR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE EAST WILL DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE STATE MONDAY MORNING AFTER 12Z. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LOW
VFR CEILINGS AROUND FL050, BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BRING SOME MVFR
CEILINGS INTO CENTRAL AR AROUND 15Z FOR A FEW HOURS. LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, BUT NO REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS
IN THE 20S IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL DECREASE BY SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 43 62 54 79 / 0 40 30 10
CAMDEN AR 57 77 63 80 / 10 20 10 10
HARRISON AR 45 62 53 78 / 0 20 30 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 52 72 62 78 / 10 30 20 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 50 68 60 78 / 10 30 20 10
MONTICELLO AR 56 77 63 81 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 52 75 63 79 / 10 20 20 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 43 59 52 79 / 0 30 30 0
NEWPORT AR 45 64 57 80 / 0 30 30 10
PINE BLUFF AR 53 74 62 81 / 10 20 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 50 65 56 81 / 0 30 30 10
SEARCY AR 44 65 56 79 / 0 30 20 10
STUTTGART AR 51 69 61 80 / 10 20 10 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...BARHAM
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