823
FXUS64 KLZK 262321
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
621 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THEN TEMPERATURES TREND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY, THEN ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
-ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
SATELLITE/RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A BOWING SEGMENT OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE
SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH TODAY. A LOOK AT DETERMINISTIC AND HI-
RES CAM MODELS KEEPS THE AREA MAINLY DRY THROUGH MOST OF TODAY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY,THE WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT WILL PUT MOST OF
THE STATE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSE THE STATE AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE STATE WILL SEE AMPLE BULK
SHEAR OF 40-50KT WITH SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2500-3500J/KG
WITH VERY STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA.
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT, DAMAGING WIND AND VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG
WITH A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF TRAINING OCCURS WITH
STORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.
BY TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT SAGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A SHOT OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE STATE. AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
ARKANSAS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL RUN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WITH POCKETS OF IFR ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS WILL MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRIEFLY BRING CIGS TO IFR FOR SHORT DURATIONS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN OVER MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, THEN LIFT TO
VFR WITH SOME LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE AND
BREEZY AT TIMES. A LOOK AT HREF GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AROUND THE STATE SHOW MVFR CEILINGS MOVING NORTH INTO THE STATE
LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR AROUND MIDDAY. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WITH GUST AS HIGH AS 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE STATE, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO PLACE
AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. HAZARDS IN OR AROUND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LARGE HAIL, AND STRONG GUST WINDS WITH
A BRIEF DROP IN VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE, VFR ARE
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 67 83 64 81 / 30 40 70 80
CAMDEN AR 67 87 67 84 / 20 40 60 50
HARRISON AR 64 82 56 79 / 30 40 40 70
HOT SPRINGS AR 67 84 65 81 / 30 40 60 60
LITTLE ROCK AR 67 84 67 83 / 30 40 70 70
MONTICELLO AR 67 87 68 85 / 10 30 60 50
MOUNT IDA AR 67 84 65 80 / 30 40 60 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 65 82 57 79 / 30 50 50 70
NEWPORT AR 67 85 67 81 / 20 40 80 70
PINE BLUFF AR 67 87 67 84 / 30 40 70 60
RUSSELLVILLE AR 67 84 64 80 / 30 40 50 70
SEARCY AR 64 84 64 82 / 30 40 70 70
STUTTGART AR 68 87 69 83 / 30 40 80 70
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...76
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