976
FXUS64 KLZK 051728 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1228 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
-ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS
-SEVERE THREAT INCREASES MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE
-LINGERING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS
-ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THE REGION WILL BE DEALING WITH 2 SEPARATE WAVES OF ACTIVE WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE WILL START THIS MORNING
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE PASSES EAST OVER AR/MO...WITH SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NRN SECTION OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS MORNING ACTIVITY WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY GIVEN ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO REMAIN NON-SFC BASED.
THE MAIN EVENT WILL COME BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS MORE INTENSE UPPER
ENERGY SHIFTS EAST...AND A SFC COLD FRONT DROP SE INTO THE STATE.
SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. INITIALLY...A CAPPING INVERSION
WILL HOLD CONVECTION FROM FIRING...BUT AS THE FRONTAL FORCING SHIFTS
SE...EXPECT INITIATION OF CONVECTION BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON HRS OVER
PORTIONS OF NRN AR. THIS WILL BE AT THE NOSE OF A SWATH OF 1500-
2000+ J/KG MOST UNSTABLE CAPE...AND AN AREA OF 40-60+ KTS SHR. AS A
RESULT...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THERE
LOOKS TO BE POCKETS OF 200-300+ M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH IN THIS SAME ZONE.
SO...SOME ROTATING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY BE SEEN GIVEN THESE
PARAMETERS...WITH STORM MOTIONS E AND SE JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT.
BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THE OVERLAP OF BEST INSTABILITY AND LOW
LEVEL SHR DOES DISPLACE SOME...WITH THE TORNADO THREAT DECREASING
SOME INTO THE EVENING HRS AS ACTIVITY DROPS FURTHER SE. EVEN
SO...THERE WILL SEE BE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES INTO THE
LATER EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS GIVEN SOME 0-1 KM SRH. SFC
BASED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE DECREASING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. INCREASING INTENSITY OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ MAY OVERCOME THE
DECREASED SFC BASED INSTABILITY HOWEVER...KEEPING THE SVR THREAT
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS FOR SOME AREAS JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.
BY AROUND SUNRISE WED...MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST/SE
OF THE CWA AS THE SFC FRONT DROPS SE TO EXTREME SERN AR. SOME
LINGERING STRONG/SVR STORMS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE ON WED ACROSS
EXTREME SERN AR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTH
OF THE STATE LATER ON WED AFTERNOON.
COOLER AND CALMER CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
LATE WED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DO
RETURN BY SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SUN FOR WAVE 2 OF ACTIVE WEATHER. MORE
STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...DETAILS REGARDING EXACT SEVERE
WEATHER DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
GENERALLY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH VSBY/CIGS FREQUENTLY REDUCED TO
MVFR OR LOWER CATEGORIES. SCATTERED TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
CLOSER TO 06/00Z WITH STORMS GENERALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY TS ACTIVITY THAT IMPACTS TERMINALS COULD
PROVIDE STRONG/VARIABLE WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE WHICH WILL PROVIDE A SHIFT TO
NW WINDS BEHIND IT. BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SFC WINDS WILL
REMAIN VARIABLE IN DIRECTION/SPEED ACROSS THE STATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 50 61 46 67 / 80 30 20 10
CAMDEN AR 64 71 50 67 / 60 90 50 20
HARRISON AR 46 58 42 66 / 50 30 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 56 64 48 67 / 80 60 30 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 56 63 49 66 / 80 60 40 10
MONTICELLO AR 66 70 52 67 / 50 90 70 20
MOUNT IDA AR 57 65 48 67 / 70 50 20 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 46 59 43 67 / 50 20 10 10
NEWPORT AR 53 62 49 66 / 80 70 30 10
PINE BLUFF AR 59 65 50 66 / 70 90 60 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 53 64 48 70 / 50 50 20 10
SEARCY AR 52 62 47 67 / 80 80 40 10
STUTTGART AR 57 63 51 65 / 80 80 50 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...67
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