300
FXUS64 KLZK 271732
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1232 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
-NEAR-NORMAL TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEK.
-NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
-SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
STATE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW.
-AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS
NEXT WEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE STATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS THE STATE. SATELLITE EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOWS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS
ARKANSAS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING ARE RANGE FROM THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INTO THE 50S
ACROSS ARKANSAS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOWN ON THE 00Z H500 MAP WILL CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN AND SLIDE TO THE EAST LATER TODAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED ALLOWING FOR THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH BY THIS WEEKEND. A SERIES OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE STATE VIA THE SUBTROPICAL JET
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE.
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON MOISTURE RETURN DURING THE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME. WITH REGARDS TO POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS
WEEKEND, THE ECMWF SHOWS AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE
STATE, WHILE THE GFS SHOWS AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. A
LOOK AT THE 12Z 90TH PERCENTILE ECMWF ENSEMBLE RUN SHOWS SHOWS UP
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS. THE 90TH PERCENTILE GFS ENSEMBLE RUN CONTINUES TO BE FAR
MORE BULLISH WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO ONE AND A QUARTER
INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
BOTH THE 12Z MEAN ECMWF AND GFS SHOWS BOTH SHOWS A QUARTER TO ONE
HALF INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE STATE BUT VARY ON LOCATION OF
THE HIGHER TOTALS. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND, MODELS WILL
COMING INTO BETTER CONSENSUS ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MOST OF THE STATE WILL SEE AMOUNTS
OF ONE INCH OR LESS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CONSES. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
LATE OCTOBER INTO EARLY NOVEMBER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STATEWIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY, WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE W THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SRN AR ON WED WITH SE WINDS BETWEEN
5-10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 50 82 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 48 84 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 53 79 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 50 83 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 53 83 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 52 83 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 46 82 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 50 79 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 51 82 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 50 84 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 50 82 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 49 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 53 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70
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