022
FXUS64 KLZK 210600
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
100 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY
BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA
- BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK
- LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN WILDFIRE DANGER AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
EARLY MORNING RADAR DATA AND SFC OBS INDICATE A COLD FRONT DRAPED
FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE PERSISTING FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS TO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TOWARD THE ST. LOUIS AREA.
WELL AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY, RADAR DATA WAS SAMPLING AN EXTENDED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KLRF TO KHKA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
STATE WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S F WITH DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE 60S
F.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS BUT DAYTIME HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S F. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE
80S F ACROSS NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE TODAY. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS ARKANSAS,
BUT SHORT TERM HI-RES GUIDANCE REMAINS UNDERWHELMING REGARDING
OVERALL COVERAGE AND FORECAST POPS REFLECT THAT.
AFTER TODAY, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO
THE STATE AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. COOLEST READINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE FROM WED-SAT WITH HIGHS IN SOME SPOTS STRUGGLING TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE UPPER 70S F AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
DIP DOWN INTO THE 50S AS WELL. ELSEWHERE, MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE
BUT NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN.
BY THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES MAY BEGIN TO WARM ONCE AGAIN AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AATTEMPTSTO BUILD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AR TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE, COVERAGE OF PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL, GENERALLY BECOMING N/NW BEHIND THE
FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 95 67 88 61 / 20 20 10 0
CAMDEN AR 98 70 94 67 / 20 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 87 65 82 60 / 40 20 20 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 95 70 89 65 / 20 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 95 71 90 66 / 20 10 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 97 71 93 69 / 20 10 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 94 66 90 63 / 30 10 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 65 84 59 / 40 20 10 0
NEWPORT AR 95 69 88 63 / 20 20 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 97 69 91 65 / 20 10 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 94 69 89 65 / 30 10 10 0
SEARCY AR 96 68 89 62 / 20 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 98 71 92 66 / 20 10 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...67
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