498
FXUS64 KLZK 151645
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1145 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
-WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
-SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY
-MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL
-SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS FRI
MORNING...WITH SOME LIGHT SRLY WINDS ALREADY NOTED. THESE SRLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
TEMPS WILL WARM FURTHER FROM THU AS A RESULT...EVEN AS SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS. THIS INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL BE
RESULT OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE PASSING OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. THIS UPPER WAVE MAY ALSO TRIGGER SOME
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH SOME LOW END POPS
MENTIONED AGAIN TODAY AS A RESULT OVER WRN/NRN SECTIONS.
A SIMILAR SITUATION MAY OCCUR AGAIN FOR SAT AS WELL...WITH SRLY SFC
FLOW CONTINUING...AND A WEAK UPPER WAVE PASSING OVER THE AR/MO BORDER
BEFORE THE MIDDAY TIMEFRAME. FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW ON
SUN...WITH SRLY/SERLY SFC FLOW INCREASING FURTHER. MOST OF THE UPPER
ENERGY LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF AR ON SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...SO HAVE
DROPPED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS WRN SECTIONS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS EXPECTED.
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE CLOSE TO AR STARTING
MON...BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MAINLY TUE AND WED.
THIS FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE SLOWING AS IT DROPS SOUTH
AND BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES LOOK
TO PASS OVERHEAD...KEEPING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST
NEARLY EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS SETUP TENDS TO RESULT IN
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST ON HOW FAR SE THE FRONT
DROPS...AND THE UPPER ENERGY MOVES. GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS...A BIT HESITANT TO GET INTO THE DETAILS REGARDING HOW
MUCH RAINFALL MAY OCCUR. THIS WILL BE IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND HOPEFULLY MANY AREAS CAN SEE ADDITIONAL BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL.
WILL ALSO NEED TO AT LEAST MENTION SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEEING STRONG
TO SVR CONVECTION WITH THE MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AS WELL. GIVEN THE
MID/LATE MAY TIME-FRAME...DEEP MOISTURE RETURN...AND STOUT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...A THREAT FOR SEEING SVR CONVECTION MAY EXIST.
HOWEVER...DETAILS ON TIMING OF UPPER WAVES AND OTHER UNCERTAINTIES
WILL NEED FIGURED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS ON ANY SVR THREAT POTENTIAL
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD FROM EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A COUPLE PERIOD OF VCSH WILL BE PRESENT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY FOR THE SITES OF
KHRO AND KBPK. ADDITIONALLY, THE SITES OF KHRO AND KBPK WILL
EXPERIENCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATER
SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS
AT MOST TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 73 87 69 88 / 10 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 70 87 68 86 / 0 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 70 85 67 86 / 30 30 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 71 86 68 86 / 10 10 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 86 68 87 / 0 0 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 72 86 67 86 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 72 85 70 85 / 20 10 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 70 86 67 87 / 20 20 0 0
NEWPORT AR 72 88 68 90 / 10 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 71 86 67 87 / 0 10 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 71 87 68 87 / 20 0 0 10
SEARCY AR 70 87 66 88 / 0 10 0 10
STUTTGART AR 73 86 68 88 / 0 10 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page