084
FXUS64 KLZK 112316
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
616 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
-SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS
-COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
-AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED OVER ARKANSAS AND
TRANSITIONS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION OF THE CONUS NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL HOT WEATHER WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
AS OF 2 AM CDT, A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS ARKANSAS NEARLY PARALLEL AND OVER THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
ACROSS THE STATE. A COMPLEX OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PRESENT
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WHICH HAS LED TO SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2-4+ INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE STATE ALLOWING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO TRACK
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH THE
PRECIPITATION PREDOMINATELY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH POP CHANCES ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND IF A LOCATION HAS EXPERIENCED ANY RAIN OR STORMS ALONG
WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF CLOUD COVER.
AN ELONGATED UPPER LVL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, SPECIFICALLY BACK OVER
ARKANSAS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK. A RETURN TO HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
BY MID-WEEK, THE UPPER LVL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER ARKANSAS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE MID-SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CONUS WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO UPPER LVL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER ARKANSAS TO FINISH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
PERIOD, BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF ARKANSAS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE UPPER LVL RIDGE, POP CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
ISOLATED AREAS OF THE STATE, BUT WIDESPREAD AND APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS NOT EXPECTED.
INTO THE FINAL DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, OR THURSDAY, AN UPPER LVL
SWT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS ON
APPROACH TOWARD THE STATE. ADDITIONALLY AT THE SFC, A SERIES OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT AND POP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE STATEWIDE AND AT THE MOMENT APPEAR TO LEAD TOWARD ANOTHER
DECENT OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FOR ARKANSAS.
CONSEQUENTLY, WITH A BREAK FROM ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, BUT THIS
FORECAST MAY WAVER SLIGHTLY BEING SEVEN DAYS INTO THE FUTURE.
HOWEVER, THE SIGNAL REMAINS STRONG WITHIN THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T'STORMS LINGER IN SW AR. COVERAGE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING. AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR FOG TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES BEING FURTHER NORTH. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BUILD
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE UNTIL MID MORNING,
BUT WILL BE FAR MORE LIMITED IN DENSITY AND COVERAGE. SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SAT. AFTERNOON
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 68 94 70 98 / 30 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 70 96 72 99 / 20 20 0 10
HARRISON AR 66 91 69 94 / 0 20 20 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 70 95 72 99 / 30 20 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 72 96 74 98 / 30 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 71 94 73 97 / 40 20 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 67 95 69 98 / 30 30 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 66 91 68 94 / 30 10 0 20
NEWPORT AR 70 94 71 97 / 30 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 70 95 72 97 / 30 30 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 69 95 71 98 / 30 10 10 20
SEARCY AR 69 96 70 98 / 30 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 72 96 74 98 / 40 10 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...78
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