309
FXUS64 KLZK 010810
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
210 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
- MILD ARE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE
NEW YEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
- AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE
STATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
THE FIRST DAY OF 2026 IS STARTING OFF VERY QUIET ACROSS ARKANSAS
WITH BARELY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. ALL IN ALL, NOT A BAD WAY TO USHER IN THE NEW YEAR.
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THIS MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANT
TROUGHING OFF THE EAST COAST AND A SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.
PATTERN SUBSEQUENTLY PLACES THE CWA IN PRONOUNCED NW FLOW TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT
ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO DAMPEN OUT SOMEWHAT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE
FORECAST. SYSTEM LOOKS TO TAP INTO SOME BETTER MOISTURE AS IT PUSHES
EAST WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND QPF OVER THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE. AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
OVERLY EXCESSIVE BUT A FEW AREAS MAY PICK UP A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OF RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE TO THE LOWER 70S
OVER THE SW CORNER WHERE A WARM FRONT SNEAKS INTO THAT PART OF THE
STATE.
UPPER SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THAT WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS COME SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S
BUT NO SIGNIFICANTLY COLD AIR IS SEEN DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
IN FACT, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING RETURNING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER SYSTEM
APPROACHES BUT PLENTY OF TIME REMAINS TO SORT OUT THE DETAILS WITH
THIS ONE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY W/NW AT LESS THAN 10
KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 62 43 52 38 / 0 10 60 30
CAMDEN AR 67 48 69 45 / 0 30 20 0
HARRISON AR 64 44 54 37 / 0 10 40 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 65 47 61 44 / 0 30 20 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 65 47 58 42 / 0 30 50 20
MONTICELLO AR 68 51 68 47 / 0 20 40 10
MOUNT IDA AR 68 47 63 44 / 0 30 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 61 40 51 36 / 0 10 40 10
NEWPORT AR 60 43 51 38 / 0 10 70 40
PINE BLUFF AR 66 49 63 44 / 0 30 50 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 65 46 58 42 / 0 20 30 10
SEARCY AR 63 42 55 39 / 0 20 60 30
STUTTGART AR 64 48 59 42 / 0 20 60 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...56
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