611
FXUS64 KLZK 240724
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
224 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
- NO REAL IMPROVEMENTS IN WILDFIRE DANGER/DROUGHT CONDS THIS WEEK
- RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK
- BETTER RAIN CHANCES (40-60%) RETURN MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
LOW STRATUS WAS SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF NE AR THIS MORNING FROM
THE OH RIVER VALLEY. HIGH CLOUDS WERE NOTED STREAMING EWRD OVER THE
WRN HALF OF THE STATE; THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE NERLY AROUND 10
MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO 20 MPH. DEW PTS SHOULD LARGELY BE IN
THE 50S TODAY, KEEPING APPARENT T'S CLOSE TO ACTUAL T'S.
ON A LARGER SCALE, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE RIDGING ACROSS THE
LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A PAIR OF
TROUGHS INVOF THE DESERT SW AND E ATLANTIC COAST, RESPECTIVELY. NEAR
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY
PROVIDING NERLY WINDS TO AR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION, ALBEIT MODIFYING
SLIGHTLY EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GOOD NEWS IS NO HEAT
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS DEW PTS REMAIN AT A COMFORTABLE
LEVELS THANKS TO NERLY WINDS. IN FACT, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
A PATTERN SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND WITH
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO THE WNW. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRAVERSE THIS NWRLY FLOW, BRINGING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) TO NW HALF OF THE STATE. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE S/SW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE WEAK DURING THIS TIME FRAME
THEREFORE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS INCREASING
INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE
TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING A DEEPER MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH WHEREAS THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING A BROADER, WEAKER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. WHILE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS MIGHT BE OUR
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND GREATEST POTENTIAL QPF OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL
AS PW'S AND DEW PTS RECOVER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NRN AR OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME,
THINKING LOWER-END VFR, NOT QUITE MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING.
DURING THE DAY ON THURS, HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM INTO THE STATE
FROM THE W. WINDS WILL BE E/NE AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT, THEN NE AT
AROUND 10 KTS ON THURS, SOME GUSTS MAY REACH 15-20 KTS OVER SE AR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 81 59 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 84 60 90 62 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 79 58 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 83 60 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 82 62 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 83 63 88 65 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 84 58 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 81 57 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 80 59 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 82 60 88 63 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 84 60 87 64 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 82 59 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 84 62 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70
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