200
FXUS64 KLZK 181113
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
513 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
-VERY DRY AIR REMAINS...AND WILL KEEP THE WILD FIRE THREAT ELEVATED
AGAIN THIS SUNDAY
-ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH COLDER/DRIER AIR RETURNING
-WARMING AND SOME INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN BY MID-WEEK...WITH
SOME RAINFALL RETURNING TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
-A NEW FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...WITH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR RETURNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION AS NWRLY WINDS
REMAIN UP EARLY THIS SUN MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SW OF
THE STATE THROUGH THIS SUN MORNING...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY RELAXING
BY AROUND SUNRISE. LOWS BY THIS TIME WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH SOME SPOTS ACROSS NRN AR MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING WILL
ALSO CONTINUE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WITH A FEW SPOTS
MAYBE DROPPING TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW ZERO ACROSS NRN/NWRN
SECTIONS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST FOR THIS SUN AFTERNOON...WITH SRLY
WINDS RETURNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS BY THIS SUN
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. DEWPTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MIN RH
VALUES IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...AND WITH SRLY WINDS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON...THE ELEVATED/ENHANCE WILD FIRE THREAT
WILL BE SEEN ONCE AGAIN. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG
LEVELS...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
A NEW COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE INTO THE STATE BY TONIGHT AND FOR
MON...WITH DRY AIR CONTINUING...AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS ON MON WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS
NRN SECTIONS...AND BE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN SECTIONS
RESPECTIVELY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE COME LIGHT...AND WITH A CLEAR
SKY AND DRY AIR REMAINING...LOWS WILL AGAIN DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR
MOST AREAS TUE MORNING. SOME SINGLE DIGITS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NRN SECTIONS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FOR TUE AFTERNOON...WITH SRLY FLOW
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 BY TUE
AFTERNOON FOR HIGHS. THE SRLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED...WITH
SOME INCREASING MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE. A NEW SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP SE TOWARDS THE STATE ON WED...WITH A NEW COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. WITH SOME INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL WED INTO WED NIGHT.
WHILE CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL STILL LOOKS LIMITED AS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVING THIS FAR NORTH BEFORE THE FRONT ISN'T VERY
HIGH. THE TIMING OF THE FROPA REMAINS UNCERTAIN ALSO...BUT WILL NEED
TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER TIME ON HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL
EVENTUALLY BE SEEN. THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ON TEMPS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALSO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE IN THE FORECAST BEHIND
THE LATEST COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH
ADDITIONAL FRONTS/UPPER WAVES PASSING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE
FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY BRING MORE COLD/DRY AIR
TO THE REGION...AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIP CHANCES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TERMINALS CAN
EXPECT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD AND SURFACE WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD, WINDS WILL CALM SOME WITH SOME TERMINALS SEEING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 39 21 33 14 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 45 24 45 19 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 42 18 28 14 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 43 26 41 18 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 41 25 37 18 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 43 29 43 21 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 46 25 41 17 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 41 18 29 12 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 38 22 32 15 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 42 25 40 19 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 45 22 37 16 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 40 21 35 13 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 39 25 37 18 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...73
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