046
FXUS64 KLZK 082330
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
-ONE MORE DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
-WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BEGIN AN
INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND
-SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND T'STORMS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH HAS DEVELOPED JUST ON THE TN SIDE OF THE MO
BOOTHEEL. LIGHT ESE WILL SHIFT TO MAINLY SSE BY MID AFTERNOON WEDS.
SOME 20MPH+ GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND DIG IN OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. LOW MIN
RHS COMBINED WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS IN ELEVATION COULD PRESENT A
CONDITIONAL ELEVATED FIRE RISK. HIGHS WILL START OUR CLIMB BACK TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WEDS, WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED.
ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO SSE THEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE OFF TO OUR E HANGS AROUND. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BRING GULF
MOISTURE AND HIGHER TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL PUT TO REST MUCH OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
STARTING THURSDAY IN W AR AND AREA WIDE BY FRI. HIGHS INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH THE HOTTEST DAY
BEING SAT.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON POPS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A TROUGH SWINGS AROUND
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. HOW MUCH RAIN AND HOW FAR SOUTH INTO OUR FA THIS FRONT GETS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION AND HOW STRONG THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST IS. A WEAKER/MORE EAST RIDGE WOULD LIKELY STALL THE FRONT
ACROSS N AR AND SOME RAINFALL TOTALS COULD GET CLOSE TO AN INCH. A
STRONGER/MORE WEST RIDGE WOULD STALL THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH IN MO,
THIS WOULD RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IN AR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY WILL BE A WINDOW OF VERY
PLEASANT WEATHER BEFORE AN EXTENDED ACTIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN STARTS
AND HANGS AROUND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON A DEEPENING
TROUGH WILL PUSH THE ENTRENCHED RIDGE OUT OF THE AREA. AS THIS RIDGE
GETS PUSHED OUT THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT AROUND THE TROUGH AND
INCREASE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THAT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HOW FAR EAST THIS RAIN MAKES IT WILL
ALSO DEPEND ON HOW FAR THE SHORTWAVE CAN DIG INTO THE RIDGE.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERAL DAYS OF
SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MID-SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND MESOSCALE FEATURES STILL YET TO BE
DETERMINED AS THIS PATTERN ENTERS THE MID TO SHORT RANGE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE S/SE. ON THURS, WINDS WILL BE SRLY
AROUND 10 KTS WITH ONLY FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 54 79 57 81 / 0 0 0 20
CAMDEN AR 52 81 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 53 79 56 80 / 0 0 0 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 52 80 57 81 / 0 0 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 52 80 57 82 / 0 0 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 53 80 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 52 80 58 81 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 52 79 56 81 / 0 0 0 40
NEWPORT AR 54 80 56 82 / 0 0 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 52 80 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 52 80 57 82 / 0 0 0 20
SEARCY AR 49 80 54 82 / 0 0 0 10
STUTTGART AR 54 79 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70
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