690
FXUS64 KLZK 100652
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
152 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
-LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
-WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
-OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK
-THE MOST WIDESPREAD/HEAVIEST PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AR
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SOME REMNANT TS ACTIVITY IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF E/SE KANSAS.
SFC RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW NOTED AT THE H500 LEVEL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN US.
THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE
AGAIN TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S F. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL, AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO S/SW. TD VALUES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE LOWER
50S TO LOWER 60S F ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THIS BOUNDARY NEARS THE STATE, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE SFC RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SE WILL
LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE. ASSOCIATED QPF WITH THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW, WITH A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.
AFTER TODAY'S PRECIP CHANCES WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, H500 RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE
THEN EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS
AND CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY TO MID APRIL.
THE H500 RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE BROAD SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
STUBBORN H500 RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR STEEP S/SW FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. VERY WARM AIR AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW, THERE
WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER NEXT
WEEK, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VARIED ON TIMING/IMPACTS. WHAT IS
EXPECTED IS THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE. WHAT
FALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN INSUFFICIENT TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE
DROUGHT CONDTIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, THERE WILL BE
LIMITED PROGRESS E/SE ACROSS THE STATE WITH ANY PRECIPITATION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DRAMATICALLY TOWARD THE
MS RIVER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SATELLITE
OBS SHOWING A BKN HIGH LVL CLOUD LAYER SPREADING ACROSS S AR EARLY
THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND CIGS TO
DECREASE BUT NOT REACH ANY THRESHOLDS AS CLDFRONT FROM THE N
APPROACHES. CONTINUING TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF RAIN OFF TAFS THIS
CYCLE DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY OF PRECIP MAKING IT TO NORTHERN
TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 82 59 83 63 / 30 20 20 0
CAMDEN AR 83 59 84 62 / 10 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 79 58 81 63 / 50 30 30 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 82 59 83 63 / 20 10 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 83 60 84 63 / 10 10 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 83 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 81 58 83 63 / 30 10 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 80 58 82 63 / 50 30 20 0
NEWPORT AR 82 60 84 63 / 20 10 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 82 59 85 61 / 10 0 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 82 59 84 63 / 30 10 10 0
SEARCY AR 82 57 84 60 / 10 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 82 60 84 63 / 10 0 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...78
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