829
FXUS64 KLZK 051155 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
655 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
AVIATION
UPDATED W/ A DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/12Z TAFS
VFR CONDNS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PD W/ BREEZY S/WRLY
WINDS AT MOST TERMINALS BY TUES AFTERNOON. SOME VERY ISOLATED TS
MAY OCCUR AROUND THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
VERY LOW, SO HAVE KEPT MENTIONS OF PRECIP OUT FOR NOW.
/72/
PREV DISCUSSION
(ISSUED 343 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022)
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH REGARD TO THE SHORT TERM FCST, THERE'S NOT TOO MUCH TO UPDATE
YOU ON THAT HASN'T ALREADY BEEN SAID IN THE PAST FEW FCST
CYCLES...IT'S GONNA BE HOT, AND JUST PLAIN NASTY OUTSIDE...BUT IT IS
SUMMER AFTERALL.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS AROUND THE AREA WL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S,
WITH AN INCREASING NUMBER OF LOCATIONS LKLY HITTING THE TRIPLE DIGIT
MARK, PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER AR RIVER VALLEY, AND ACROSS THE
N/ERN PORTION OF THE STATE. SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE
SEEN AROUND THE REGION AGAIN, BUT WL LKLY NOT RESULT IN ANY
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL.
FOR OUR FOLKS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS AND OZARKS, AND
MOST OF THE WRN AND N/WRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE, THERE MAY BE A
SILVER LINING, THIS BEING INCREASING S/WRLY WINDS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THIS IS PROBABLY HARD TO BELIEVE AS USUALLY ITS WINDS
FROM THE NORTH THAT ARE GOOD THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT BEAR WITH
ME...W/ INCREASING VERTICAL MIXING, LOW-LVL MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO
TAPER DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON, HELPING TO EASE THE MUGGY FACTOR, AT
THE COST OF AN INCREASING AIR TEMPERATURE.
ELSEWHERE AROUND THE FA...INCLUDING CNTRL, N/ERN, AND S/ERN AR,
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WL EASILY TOP OUT NEAR 105 TO 110
DEGREES, RESULTING IN ANOTHER AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD OF
HAZARDOUS HEAT. SO, THE MESSAGE REMAINS THE SAME:
IF YOU INTEND TO BE OUTSIDE TODAY, OR HAVE TO, PLEASE BE SURE TO
TAKE BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR INSIDE, STAY WELL-HYDRATED, AND DON'T
FORGET ABOUT THE SUNSCREEN! IF YOU CAN, CHECK UP ON THOSE WHO MAY BE
MORE VULNERABLE OR ARE WITHOUT SOME FORM OF A/C.
THE OTHER HAZARD OF NOTE WL BE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS, AS WE WL LKLY
SEE A FEW CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 70S, OR EVEN LOW 80S, AND NOT ALLOWING FOR ANY OVERNIGHT
RELIEF.
FOR THE WED FCST...RINSE AND REPEAT, SEE ABOVE...
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AND MAXIMUM
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 115 DEGREES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A CONTINUATION OF HEAT ADVISORIES. ANY
RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL WOBBLE TOWARD THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND, WITH A
NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO ARKANSAS
BY SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOT SO
OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS SUNDAY/MONDAY.
AS THE PERIOD ENDS, THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST, AND YET
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP TO THE NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT. LOOK FOR AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN AND CLOSER TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE COUNTY EXCEPT SOUTHWEST-BOONE COUNTY
HIGHER ELEVATIONS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTGOMERY
COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SCOTT COUNTY-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-EASTERN, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHERN SEARCY COUNTY HIGHER ELEVATIONS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON
COUNTY HIGHER ELEVATIONS-LAWRENCE-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
NEWTON COUNTY HIGHER ELEVATIONS-NEWTON COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY HIGHER ELEVATIONS-NORTHERN POLK
COUNTY HIGHER ELEVATIONS-NORTHERN SCOTT COUNTY-NORTHWEST SEARCY
COUNTY HIGHER ELEVATIONS-NORTHWEST YELL COUNTY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-POPE COUNTY HIGHER ELEVATIONS-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-RANDOLPH-SALINE-SEARCY COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
SHARP-SOUTHEAST POLK COUNTY HIGHER ELEVATIONS-SOUTHEAST VAN
BUREN COUNTY-SOUTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY-SOUTHERN POPE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOGAN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST MONTGOMERY COUNTY
HIGHER ELEVATIONS-STONE-VAN BUREN COUNTY HIGHER ELEVATIONS-
WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOGAN COUNTY-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL EXCLUDING
NORTHWEST.
AVIATION...72
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