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FXUS64 KLZK 161647
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1147 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
-WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
-SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY
-MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL
-SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE NOTED EARLY THIS SAT MORNING AS SRLY
SFC FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME SPOTTY SHRA WAS ALSO
DRIFTING NE INTO THE STATE...TRIGGERED FROM A WEAK UPPER WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE SW. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE THROUGH
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SRLY SFC
FLOW WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOW 90S FORECAST. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ON SUN AS WELL...BUT MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY.
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THE 70S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS.
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD ON MON...WITH SOME
INCREASED POPS FOR CONVECTION ON MON AS WELL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 70S AND 80S FOR HIGHS.
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR THE ON TUE AND PERSIST
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE
CLOSE TO AR EARLY IN THE WEEK...BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MAINLY TUE AND WED. THIS FRONT WILL DROP SE INTO THE STATE
SLOWING AS IT DROPS SOUTH AND BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW.
ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES LOOK TO PASS OVERHEAD...KEEPING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST NEARLY EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS
SETUP TENDS TO RESULT IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST ON HOW FAR SE
THE FRONT DROPS...AND THE UPPER ENERGY MOVES. GIVEN THE ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS...A BIT HESITANT TO GET INTO THE DETAILS
REGARDING HOW MUCH RAINFALL MAY OCCUR. THIS WILL BE IRONED OUT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND HOPEFULLY MANY AREAS CAN SEE ADDITIONAL
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
WILL ALSO NEED TO AT LEAST MENTION SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEEING STRONG
TO SVR CONVECTION WITH THE MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AS WELL. GIVEN THE
MID/LATE MAY TIME-FRAME...DEEP MOISTURE RETURN...AND STOUT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...A THREAT FOR SEEING SVR CONVECTION MAY EXIST.
HOWEVER...DETAILS ON TIMING OF UPPER WAVES AND OTHER UNCERTAINTIES
WILL NEED FIGURED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS ON ANY SVR THREAT POTENTIAL
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THE TAF SITES OF KHOT
AND KADF WHERE CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST ACROSS ALL SITES IN EXCESS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATER SATURDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
BE PRESENT AT THE TERMINALS OF KHRO, KBPK, KHOT, KADF, AND KLIT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 69 88 72 87 / 0 0 10 30
CAMDEN AR 68 86 72 87 / 0 20 20 20
HARRISON AR 67 85 70 84 / 0 0 20 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 69 85 72 85 / 0 10 30 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 68 87 71 87 / 0 10 20 30
MONTICELLO AR 68 87 72 88 / 0 20 20 10
MOUNT IDA AR 70 84 73 83 / 0 20 30 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 67 87 70 84 / 0 0 20 50
NEWPORT AR 68 90 71 89 / 0 0 10 30
PINE BLUFF AR 68 87 71 87 / 0 10 20 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 68 86 71 85 / 0 20 30 40
SEARCY AR 66 88 69 87 / 0 10 20 30
STUTTGART AR 69 88 72 88 / 0 10 10 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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