815
FXUS64 KLZK 062329
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
629 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
-CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY
-CHANCES FOR RAINFALL START DECREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE/LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
-OVERALL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE SEEN
-OPPRESSIVE HEAT MAY SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK...WITH
HEAT HEADLINES BECOMING POSSIBLE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
AN UPPER LOW OVER SW TX EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NNE
INTO KS BY THIS EVENING. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE STATE
THROUGH THIS SAME TIMEFRAME...WITH PERSISTENT SRLY SFC FLOW
CONTINUING. WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT NE OVER PORTIONS OF AR
IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME MORE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THAN SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AS A RESULT. BEST POPS WILL
REMAIN OVER WRN SECTIONS...BUT SHOULD SEE CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA
SHIFT FURTHER EAST THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN AS SW FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...AND WEAK UPPER WAVES PASS OVERHEAD. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE FURTHER...AND SHIFT FURTHER EAST AS WELL.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WRLY AS THE UPPER
LOW BECOMES A MORE OPEN WAVE...AND MOVES EAST OVER NRN AR. POPS WILL
SHIFT NORTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER WAVE...WITH BEST POPS
OVER NRN AR ON MON.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO
DECREASE AS UPPER FLOW BECOME LESS SIGNIFICANT OVER THE REGION. EVEN
SO...ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY EXIST TO SEE SOME
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEEING ANY ORGANIZED SVR WX AND WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW DUE TO NO MAJOR
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED
STRONG/SVR CONVECTION MAY BE SEEN EACH DAY INTO MON...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.
BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER RIDING WILL
INTENSIFY OVER THE REGION. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL DECREASE
FURTHER...AND TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S FOR HIGHS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME NEAR CRITICAL HEAT INDEX LEVELS. SOME SPOTS MAY SEE
HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS AS EARLY AS MON/TUE. HOWEVER...MANY AREAS MAY
SEE OPPRESSIVE HEAT BY MID-WEEK...CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK. IF THIS TREND LOOKS TO COME TO FRUITION AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED SOMETIME NEXT WEEK AS A
RESULT OF OPPRESSIVELY HOT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY TO BECOME MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY
ACROSS THE STATE DUE TO LOWERING CIGS ON SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY ACROSS MOST TERMINALS WITH NORTHERN,
CENTRAL, AND WESTERN TERMINALS HOLDING ONTO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. VCTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL SITES
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
PROJECTED SCATTERED TO ISOLATED COVER THE CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO VICINITY TO CAPTURE THIS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 70 84 71 88 / 20 80 60 40
CAMDEN AR 71 86 72 92 / 70 70 20 10
HARRISON AR 68 80 70 85 / 40 80 70 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 72 83 73 90 / 80 80 50 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 84 72 89 / 50 90 50 10
MONTICELLO AR 73 86 74 91 / 40 70 30 20
MOUNT IDA AR 71 82 73 88 / 80 80 60 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 68 81 69 85 / 40 80 70 50
NEWPORT AR 72 86 73 89 / 10 80 60 40
PINE BLUFF AR 72 86 73 90 / 30 80 40 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 72 84 73 89 / 70 80 70 10
SEARCY AR 70 85 71 89 / 20 90 60 30
STUTTGART AR 73 86 74 90 / 20 80 50 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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