616
FXUS64 KLZK 281124 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
624 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
- ONE MORE ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT SWITCHING
WINDS TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BRINGING IN COOLER AND DRIER
AIR.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE STATE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY,
THEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE STATE NEXT WEEKEND.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, THEN TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEFORE TRENDING TO AROUND NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL, EASTERN, AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEYOND THE STORMS
THAT TOOK PLACE OVER NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE, THE REST OF THE
STATE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINED DRY
ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND 60S
EVERYWHERE ELSE.
ATTENTION TURNS TO TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONT, THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
STATE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 2500-3500J/KG WITH THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. MODELS ALSO SHOW BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF 50-60KT WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A FEW TORNADO ALSO
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WEST OF THE STATE WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF
SHOOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
ARKANSAS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER
SATURDAY, A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING MORE RAIN CHANCES
INTO THE STATE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
COMPLEX AVN FCST IS EXPECTED TUES, W/ MIXED MVFR TO IFR CONDNS
EXPECTED AROUND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TSRA. EXPECT TS TO DEVELOP IN
WRN AR AND EXPAND IN COVG, MOVING EWRD, AROUND 16-18Z, IMPACTING
TERMINALS FM W TO E THRU TUES AFTN. HAVE INCLUDED VRB GROUPS FOR
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS AT CNTRL TO SRN TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS ON THE LOWER END. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF NEAR 00Z TUES
NIGHT FM NW TO SE, W/ IFR CONDNS PREVAILING AT MOST TERMINALS NEAR
THE END OF THE PD. WINDS THRU THE DAY WL VARY FM ENE ACRS NRN
AR,TO SRLY TO WRLY OVER CNTRL TO SRN AR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 78 58 71 49 / 60 50 10 10
CAMDEN AR 83 63 74 54 / 70 80 40 40
HARRISON AR 74 52 68 45 / 80 50 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 79 59 74 53 / 70 60 30 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 79 61 73 52 / 60 70 20 20
MONTICELLO AR 83 66 75 56 / 70 80 40 40
MOUNT IDA AR 78 57 74 52 / 70 50 20 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 75 53 69 45 / 80 50 10 0
NEWPORT AR 81 61 72 50 / 80 90 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 81 63 74 53 / 60 80 30 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 78 57 73 51 / 60 50 10 10
SEARCY AR 79 59 73 49 / 60 60 10 10
STUTTGART AR 81 64 73 54 / 70 80 20 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...72
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