657
FXUS64 KLZK 101128
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
628 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
-TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY AND POSSIBLY ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS ON
SATURDAY.
-A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ON
FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ONE-FOURTH OF THE STATE WITH THE MAIN
HAZARDS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL.
-A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT
FROM THE I-40 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LITTLE ROCK TO MEMPHIS AND
LOCATIONS NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHICH
MAY BE SIGNIFICANT IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
-A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE WARRANTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AS
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 109 WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THE STATE OF ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF A H500
RIDGE TODAY. INTO THE WEEKEND, A RIDGE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE WESTERN REGION OF THE CONUS, CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS. INTO THE
NEXT WORKWEEK, THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE BECOMES FIXATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS ELONGATING WITH EASTERLY FLOW
OVERALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD OVER ARKANSAS.
AT THE SFC, A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WHICH
IS HELPING ASSIST CONTINUED ONGOING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS THIS
REGION IS PROGGED TO BEGIN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL BRING AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, THIS RISK WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
INTO SATURDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS PLIGHT INTO THE
NATURAL STATE VIA SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SFC
FEATURE AND AN UPPER LVL VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT WILL BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE STATE WILL OPEN THE WINDOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LATEST
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND
EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS OVER THIS
PERIOD.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, POP CHANCES REMAIN
ELEVATED OVERALL AS THE COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO MOVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS ARKANSAS BY MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY,
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (PRE-STORM DEVELOPMENT). FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR
EARLY TO MID JULY AND POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD PROXIMITY OF RAIN COOLED AIR VIA THE ELEVATED POP CHANCES
INTO THE WEEKEND AND UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
HOWEVER, A HEAT ADVISORY IS WARRANTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE ON
FRIDAY AND MAY POSSIBLY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY, IF STORMS
DEVELOP LATER THAN ANTICIPATED) AS HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH INTO THE
105 TO 109 RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE TIME PERIOD
OF FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST
AT THE SITES OF KHRO, KHOT, KADF, KLIT IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE GUSTING CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CEASE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 93 75 92 72 / 40 30 60 70
CAMDEN AR 96 76 95 74 / 0 0 20 50
HARRISON AR 93 74 89 70 / 10 20 60 80
HOT SPRINGS AR 96 77 95 75 / 0 0 30 60
LITTLE ROCK AR 96 78 95 76 / 0 0 40 70
MONTICELLO AR 96 78 95 75 / 0 0 30 60
MOUNT IDA AR 93 76 92 74 / 0 0 30 60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 92 73 88 71 / 30 40 50 70
NEWPORT AR 94 76 93 73 / 40 30 50 70
PINE BLUFF AR 96 77 95 74 / 0 0 40 60
RUSSELLVILLE AR 97 78 95 75 / 10 0 40 70
SEARCY AR 95 75 94 73 / 20 10 50 70
STUTTGART AR 95 78 95 75 / 10 10 40 70
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ007-008-016-017-
024-025-031>034-039-043>047-057-065-121-122-130-138-230-238.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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