524
FXUS64 KLZK 181720 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1220 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
- TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS THE STATE.
- A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SOME 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
STATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWS A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE
EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. THE SHORT WAVE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE SHORTLY AND
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE
LINE, THE ENVIRONMENT FEATURES UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS. A
LOOK AT THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BULK SHEAR VALUES OVER
PARTS OF 30-40KTS OF BULK SHEAR OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE ORDER OF 500-1000J/KG.
A NOTABLE ELEVATED H750 CAP WAS NOTED IN BOTH THE 00Z SGF & SHV
SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE HI-RES CAMS/SHORT TERM MODELS
SHOWS SOME STRONGER STORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES UPWARD
OF 30-40 KTS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH BULK
SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 60 KNOTS NEAR THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI LINE
DURING THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING,. A LOOK
AT HI-RES AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING THE CAPPING LIKELY TO
PERSIST AND KEEP STORMS ELEVATED AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS STORMS MOVES EAST THE STATE. WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID, A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND TO A LESS EXTENT LARGE
HAIL WITH THE TORNADO THREAT VERY LOW BUT NOT ZERO.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE STATE BY SATURDAY
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN THE
STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE FROM A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER
AT OR JUST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE
STATE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST INTO THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED
WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. BY TUESDAY,
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND PERSIST
THROUGH END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS ARKANSAS WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL ONLY AID
IN WORSENING THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE STATE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE WITH
WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE
ABOVE 10 KTS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS. SOME RAIN
CONTINUES JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SE WITH TIME. TERMINALS NEAR THE FRONT WILL SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER TIME. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 42 73 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 43 73 44 77 / 30 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 40 71 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 42 74 46 76 / 10 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 43 72 48 77 / 10 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 46 72 47 78 / 50 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 40 74 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 39 72 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 43 72 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 43 71 47 77 / 30 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 41 73 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 41 72 44 77 / 10 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 44 71 49 76 / 20 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...76
LONG TERM....76
AVIATION...67
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