027
FXUS64 KLZK 260551
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1151 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
- THE SECOND ROUND OF THE MAJOR WINTER STORM ACROSS ARKANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS
MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE STATE FOR THE MOST PART BY
THIS AFTERNOON.
- AN EXTREME COLD WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH
SUB- ZERO MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNINGS.
- HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE BEGINNING PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK, AS MULTIPLE THAW AND
FREEZE CYCLES WILL UNFOLD, RESULTING IN SLIPPERY MORNING ROAD
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
THE SECOND ROUND OF THE WELL ADVERTISED WINTER STORM IS UNDERWAY,
WITH PRIMARILY SNOW AND SLEET OBSERVED ACROSS THE STATE. THE WARM
NOSE ALOFT THAT IS CAUSING THIS MIXED PRECIPITATION IS VERY
PRONOUNCED, AS THE 06Z LZK SOUNDING DEPICTS ABOUT A 225-250 MB
LAYER ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT, MAXIMIZING AT +7.3 CELSIUS. DESPITE
THIS VERY STRONG WARM NOSE, PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS
CONTINUES TO BE SLEET. THUS, THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
MOVING FORWARD IS SLEET REACHING MOST OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS, AS
SEEN IN SEVERAL HOURS OF OBSERVATIONS AS FAR WEST AS HARRISON.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A SHIELD OF SNOW AND SLEET SITUATED ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS, WITH SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BASED ON HI-RES MODEL TRENDS, THIS SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE DECENTLY QUICK EASTWARD, AS THE COLDER
AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SLEET
LINE TO DIP TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. ANY
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE VERY LIMITED ACROSS THE STATE, FAVORING
SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENT.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING:
SNOW: 2-4 INCHES FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TRACE TO UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
SLEET: ONE HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF SLEET FAVORING A LINE FROM
SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTH, HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FAVORING CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH.
FREEZING RAIN: WHILE SOME ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PEAK
OF THE WARM NOSE OCCURRING NOW AND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, NO
MORE THAN A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED. THESE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE COLDER
AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN AFTER 12Z.
THE MAIN CONCERNS MOVING BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE EXTREME
COLD THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT TONIGHT, AS LOWS REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE CENTRAL
ARKANSAS SOUTH AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS ON MONDAY, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH GUIDANCE LIKELY
UNDER DOING AREAS THAT HAVE SUFFICIENT SNOWPACK THAT'LL
EFFICIENTLY RADIATE MORE HEAT TO RESULT IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THUS, THE EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH THESE COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING BEYOND THIS EVENT, THERE
IS CONCERN THAT DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK WOULD CAUSE MELTING DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS, WITH REFREEZING RESULTING IN SLICK DRIVING
CONDITIONS DURING THE FOLLOWING MORNING'S COMMUTE. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED COLDER, SO THE ODDS OF SEEING MULTIPLE DAYS THAT IS
SUFFICIENTLY ABOVE FREEZING MID TO LATE WEEK IS LOWER,
PARTICULARLY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH
THAT WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS TROUGH DEEPENING ENOUGH
THAT DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVERHEAD, THUS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW TO NONE AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, THIS FEATURE IS WORTH MONITORING SHOULD THIS TROUGH NOT
AMPLIFY AS DEEPLY, AS THAT COULD USHER IN HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS
AND IN TURN INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW WEAK SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT
SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT GOING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. NORTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS
AND SETTLE INTO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 21 3 18 8 / 90 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 26 8 28 8 / 80 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 16 -6 19 10 / 80 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 26 7 24 8 / 60 20 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 24 6 19 7 / 80 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 23 12 26 12 / 100 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 26 4 26 7 / 60 20 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 18 -3 19 7 / 80 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 20 3 15 6 / 100 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 24 8 20 8 / 90 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 29 0 21 2 / 70 10 0 0
SEARCY AR 23 1 18 2 / 90 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 22 6 16 7 / 100 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-
121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-
241-313-340-341.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...77
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