142
FXUS64 KLZK 041721 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1121 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
EVENING
- LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW
TORNADOES POSSIBLE
- ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WEST,
NORTHWEST, AND NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A COUPLE TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
RECENT MESOANALYSIS DEPICTED UPPER 50S TO 60F DEWPOINTS OVER THE SRN
HALF OF AR, W/ RICHER LOW-LVL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S OVER MOST OF THE ARKLATEX REGION. HIGH CLOUD COVER WAS
STREAMING ACRS THE FA AMIDST WRLY MID-LVL FLOW ON NIGHT TIME SAT
IMGRY, W/ RECENT MESOANALYSIS GUIDANCE DEPICTING A SUBTLE H500
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACRS THE OK/TX PANHANDLE. THRU THE DURATION OF THE
FCST PD, MULTIPLE BOUTS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARE ANTICIPATED, W/
CONDITIONAL THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
CONCERNING SVR WX POTENTIAL WED AFTN TO EVNG, NO SIG CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO THE ONGOING FCST, W/ SCTD STORMS, INCLUDING A FEW
STRONG TO SVR STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE STATE WED
AFTN TO OVERNIGHT. MODEST WRM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD TUES NIGHT ACRS THE SRN
CNTRL US, W/ LOW-LVL SRLY FLOW AMPLIFYING TO THE S OF A SFC
BAROCLINIC ZONE, EXTENDING NEWRD FM OK INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
GIVEN THE ASCENT, SCTD PRECIP AND SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE ONGOING OVER NERN OK/NWRN AR BY 12Z WED MRNG.
ACCOMPANYING WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID LVL CLOUD COVER WL ALSO PLAY A
ROLE IN HINDERING HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL THRU WED
AFTN/EVNG.
CURRENT BASE GUIDANCE AND LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WIDESPREAD 60F DEWPOINTS SHOULD EXTEND OVER MUCH OF THE STATE BY WED
AFTN. DESPITE LIMITED HEATING POTENTIAL, FCST TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S
W/ SUFFICIENT BL MOISTURE WL BE AIDED BY MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EJECTS OVER THE SRN CNTRL US WED
AFTN. LATEST BUOYANCY PROGS SUGGEST AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
ACRS THE NWRN HALF OF THE STATE BY 21Z WED AFTN.
PER 00Z-06Z CAM GUIDANCE, AS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40
KTS OVERSPREADS THE REGION WED AFTN, INITIAL CI IS EXPECTED ACRS
NERN OK B/W 16-18Z, W/ MORE VIGOROUS CI POSSIBLE ACRS WRN TO NWRN AR
B/W 19-21Z. GIVEN THE MESSY WRM ADVECTION REGIME AND MODEST SHEAR,
CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY, W/ UPSCALE GROWTH
POSSIBLE AFTER A FEW HOURS VIA MINIMAL BNDRY NORMAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS.
ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS, AND MODES WL BE POSSIBLE THRU THE AFTN
TO EVNG, W/ CLUSTERS OF STORMS, INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS, EXPECTED,
AND HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A CONDITIONAL WINDOW BEYOND 00Z AS A LLJ DEVELOPS,
WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WL BECOME MORE ELONGATED AND FAVORABLE
FOR SUPPORTING TORNADO POTENTIAL, BUT IS CONDITIONAL ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN SFC BASED INTO THE LATER EVNG
HOURS WED NIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO THE SVR THREAT, A DEVELOPING HYDRO THREAT WL BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE WRN TO NWRN TO NRN CNTRL PORTIONS OF AR, WHERE
TRAINING STORMS AND HIGHER PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5" MAY YIELD QPF
TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES, W/ LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS NEAR 4" POSSIBLE
THRU THURS MRNG. W/ ANTECEDENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS, MOST OF THE
CURRENT QPF COULD RESULT AS BENEFICIAL, HOWEVER, ANY EXCESSIVE
TRAINING OVER FLASHIER REGIONS/STREAMS AND TOPOGRAPHY COULD YIELD
SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THRU WED NIGHT.
THURS, A LULL IN PRECIP WL BE SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE STATE, W/ STRONG
SRLY FLOW PROMOTING ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR THE REGION. FRI, H500 PROGS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT A HIGHER AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO THE
SWRN US, FEATURING AN EMBEDDED JET STREAK/VORTICITY MAX EJECTING
ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS. CURRENTLY, THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS MAINTAINED WELL NW OF THE FA, W/ AR ON THE SERN
PERIPHERY OF MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY OVERLAP. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER MESSY SVR WX WRM SECTOR APPEARS POSSIBLE FRI AFTN TO
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A TRAILING CDFRNT FM SFC CYCLONIC FLOW MOVING
THRU THE NRN PLAINS. FOR NOW, DETAILS REMAIN LESS CLEAR FOR FRI SVR
WX POTENTIAL, STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER FCST UPDATES.
THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD, MULTIPLE BOUTS OF RAINFALL APPEAR
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THRU THE FRI-SUN TIMEFRAME, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING RAINFALL POTENTIAL. STRONG H500 SWRLY
FLOW AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC CDFRNT WL ENCOUNTER 99TH PERCENTILE
PWATS PER RECENT NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY GUIDANCE, W/ BASE NBM QPF
SUGGESTING ANOTHER 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACRS WRN TO CNTRL AR,
AND ASCTD EXCEEDANCE PROBS OF 50-80% FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES, AND
20-30% FOR GREATER THAN 3 INCHES. ONCE AGAIN, ANTECEDENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS SUGGEST THIS MAY END UP BEING MOSTLY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL,
HOWEVER, ANY OVERLAP IN THIS SECOND ROUND OF RAINFALL FM WED NIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS MAY YIELD MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY AROUND ANOTHER
BOUT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN CONJUNCTION W/ A SEMI-CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE BAJA OF CA. LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF SOLNS SHOW
CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS UPPER LOW,
BUT FINER DETAILS SUCH AS QPF AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WL NEED
TO BE MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT FCST UPDATES. STAY TUNED...
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
A MIXED BAG OF CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS NOTED IN DIFFERENT
AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS COMMON. SCATTERED RAIN/STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AT TIMES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AR
TERMINALS. PRECIP, INCLUDING TS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTER 05/06Z WITH LOW CIGS/REDUCED VSBY EXPECTED AT
MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 62 76 61 81 / 70 80 10 30
CAMDEN AR 63 82 62 85 / 30 30 0 20
HARRISON AR 58 73 60 77 / 90 80 20 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 63 79 62 82 / 60 60 10 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 63 80 62 82 / 50 50 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 65 82 65 85 / 10 20 0 20
MOUNT IDA AR 60 77 61 81 / 70 70 20 50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 59 74 60 79 / 90 80 20 30
NEWPORT AR 64 77 62 81 / 60 80 10 30
PINE BLUFF AR 63 81 63 85 / 20 30 0 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 60 77 60 81 / 90 80 10 40
SEARCY AR 61 79 60 81 / 60 70 10 30
STUTTGART AR 65 80 63 82 / 30 40 0 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...67
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page