001
FXUS64 KLZK 181713 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1113 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
-VERY DRY AIR REMAINS...AND WILL KEEP THE WILD FIRE THREAT ELEVATED
AGAIN THIS SUNDAY
-ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH COLDER/DRIER AIR RETURNING
-WARMING AND SOME INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN BY MID-WEEK...WITH
SOME RAINFALL RETURNING TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
-A NEW FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...WITH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR RETURNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION AS NWRLY WINDS
REMAIN UP EARLY THIS SUN MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SW OF
THE STATE THROUGH THIS SUN MORNING...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY RELAXING
BY AROUND SUNRISE. LOWS BY THIS TIME WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH SOME SPOTS ACROSS NRN AR MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING WILL
ALSO CONTINUE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WITH A FEW SPOTS
MAYBE DROPPING TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW ZERO ACROSS NRN/NWRN
SECTIONS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST FOR THIS SUN AFTERNOON...WITH SRLY
WINDS RETURNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS BY THIS SUN
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. DEWPTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MIN RH
VALUES IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...AND WITH SRLY WINDS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON...THE ELEVATED/ENHANCE WILD FIRE THREAT
WILL BE SEEN ONCE AGAIN. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG
LEVELS...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
A NEW COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE INTO THE STATE BY TONIGHT AND FOR
MON...WITH DRY AIR CONTINUING...AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS ON MON WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS
NRN SECTIONS...AND BE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN SECTIONS
RESPECTIVELY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE COME LIGHT...AND WITH A CLEAR
SKY AND DRY AIR REMAINING...LOWS WILL AGAIN DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR
MOST AREAS TUE MORNING. SOME SINGLE DIGITS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NRN SECTIONS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FOR TUE AFTERNOON...WITH SRLY FLOW
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 BY TUE
AFTERNOON FOR HIGHS. THE SRLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED...WITH
SOME INCREASING MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE. A NEW SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP SE TOWARDS THE STATE ON WED...WITH A NEW COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. WITH SOME INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL WED INTO WED NIGHT.
WHILE CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL STILL LOOKS LIMITED AS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVING THIS FAR NORTH BEFORE THE FRONT ISN'T VERY
HIGH. THE TIMING OF THE FROPA REMAINS UNCERTAIN ALSO...BUT WILL NEED
TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER TIME ON HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL
EVENTUALLY BE SEEN. THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ON TEMPS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALSO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE IN THE FORECAST BEHIND
THE LATEST COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH
ADDITIONAL FRONTS/UPPER WAVES PASSING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE
FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY BRING MORE COLD/DRY AIR
TO THE REGION...AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIP CHANCES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL PROVIDE A WIND SHIFT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH. W/SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ON
MONDAY, GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 22 33 16 45 / 0 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 24 46 20 50 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 19 29 16 48 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 25 42 19 48 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 26 38 20 47 / 0 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 27 44 22 50 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 25 42 18 50 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 19 30 14 47 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 23 33 18 43 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 26 41 20 48 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 23 38 18 49 / 0 10 0 0
SEARCY AR 22 36 15 45 / 0 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 25 37 21 45 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...67
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