494  
FXUS64 KLZK 220853  
AFDLZK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
253 AM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
MILD CONDITIONS ONGOING EARLY THIS THU MORNING AS SRLY WINDS  
CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IS MOVING  
EAST OVER FAR SRN MO WITH SOME ISOLATED TSRA/SHRA SEEN ACROSS FAR  
NRN AR. AS THE DAY GOES ON...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE THROUGH THE  
STATE...WITH SOME CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA FOR  
PORTIONS OF THE NERN HALF OF THE CWA. CANNOT RULE OUT ANY PRECIP  
FURTHER WEST...BUT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE MUCH LOWER. TEMPS WILL BE  
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...EVEN WITH THE FROPA...WITH HIGHS IN  
THE 60S AND 70S.  
 
NW WINDS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR TO THE STATE FOR TONIGHT AND  
ESPECIALLY FOR FRI BEHIND THIS FROPA. HIGHS WILL HAVE DROPPED BACK  
INTO THE 60S...THOUGH SOME 50S WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOWS THE NEXT  
2 NIGHTS WILL BE MUCH COOLER...BUT STILL FAIRLY MILD FOR LATE FEB.  
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.  
 
ONE CONCERN TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR FRI WILL BE THE COMBINATION OF LOW  
HUMIDITY AND SOME ELEVATED NW WINDS. THIS WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED  
WILD FIRE THREAT FOR FRI AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF RH VALUES DIP  
FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
DRY WEATHER WL CONT THRU THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO  
THE MID-SOUTH, THEN SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION HEADING  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WL ALLOW A RETURN OF UNSEASONABLY WARM  
TEMPS TO THE FA AS WE WORK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.  
 
THE WARMING TREND WL COMMENCE ON SUNDAY, AS SW WINDS RETURN TO THE  
NATURAL STATE. HIGHS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S IN MANY AREAS. MON  
AND TUE WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, WITH SOME LOCATIONS EVEN TOPPING  
THE 80 DEGREE MARK. IT SHLD BE NOTED THAT SOME HIGH TEMP RECORDS  
COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
A NEW STORM SYSTEM RMNS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE  
OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHCS RETURN TO THE FCST TUE  
NGT AND WED. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE COME INTO CLOSER ACQUIREMENT  
WITH OVERALL TIMING ACRS THE FA, FCST CONFIDENCE RMNS LOW. AT THIS  
POINT, IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL AND EXTENT  
FOR ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BATESVILLE AR 70 46 65 41 / 40 20 0 0  
CAMDEN AR 77 51 69 43 / 10 0 0 0  
HARRISON AR 70 39 61 35 / 20 0 0 0  
HOT SPRINGS AR 76 48 67 43 / 10 10 0 0  
LITTLE ROCK AR 75 48 67 44 / 20 20 0 0  
MONTICELLO AR 74 51 68 45 / 10 20 0 0  
MOUNT IDA AR 77 46 66 42 / 10 10 0 0  
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 71 41 62 36 / 30 10 0 0  
NEWPORT AR 69 44 64 39 / 50 30 0 0  
PINE BLUFF AR 74 48 67 43 / 20 30 0 0  
RUSSELLVILLE AR 76 46 67 40 / 10 10 0 0  
SEARCY AR 72 46 65 41 / 30 20 0 0  
STUTTGART AR 72 46 66 41 / 20 40 0 0  
 

 
   
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...62  
LONG TERM....44  
 
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