830
FXUS64 KLZK 170614
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
114 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
-NEAR RECORD TEMPS IN EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE FRIDAY.
-RAIN TO PUSH FROM NW TO SE CORNERS OF THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SATURDAY.
-CRITICAL MIN RHS STATEWIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FRIDAY WILL BE A SMALL
RESPITE FROM RAIN AND T'STORMS BEFORE THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
DRIVING THESE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF ACTIVITY EJECTS TO THE EAST.
BEFORE THAT A FAST MOVING RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS, ESPECIALLY
IN E AND NE AR.
TO PUSH OUT THE RIDGE A H500 SHORTWAVE BASED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
AND THE PARENT TROUGH COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL EJECT IN PHASE
ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS, AND DRAG A COOLER AND VERY DRY AIRMASS OUT OF
THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE REGION. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND T'STORM ACTIVITY.
AS A BROKEN RECORD ONCE AGAIN: STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST, BEGIN TO FALL APART OVER THE FA, AND THEN RAMP BACK
UP TO THE EAST. FROPA TIMING WILL BE THE CULPRIT OF THE WEAKENING
STORMS OF THIS SYSTEM. A STOUT 850-700MB INVERSION WILL PREVENT
ANY PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. AS THE CLDFRNT APPROACHES ANY ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BE SHREDDED BY THE COMBINED MID LEVEL AND DIURNAL INVERSIONS IN NW
AR. PRECIP WILL BECOME WIDELY SCATTERED BY THE TIME IT REACHES
CENTRAL AR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MID
AFTERNOON SAT AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SECONDARY FRONT FORMS ACROSS THE
CENTER OF THE FA. ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BE
ELEVATED AND POSE NO RISK OF SEVERE.
SAT EVENING IS THE BEST OF A LIMITED CHANCE FOR ANYTHING TO DEVELOP
QUICKLY ALONG THE FRONT AND BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THE AR/LA/MS
CORNER. A QUICK STREAM OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL COLLIDE WITH THE
FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND PULSE T'STORMS BACK UP ALONG THE
FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS BE RATHER CONSISTENT ON THE HAPPENING JUST TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FA, BUT IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER MOVING THAN
ANTICIPATED, THE BOTTOM ROWS OF COUNTIES IN OUR AREA COULD SEE A
STRONGER STORM AROUND SUNSET SAT.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL HOLD TO NEAR NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT. BUT THE
AIRMASS TRAILING THE FRONT WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY. MIN RHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW CRITICAL VALUES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL AREAS THAT WILL NOT RECEIVE
ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL FROM THE PRECEDING SYSTEM. WINDS AND GUSTS
HAVE SLIGHTLY TRENDED UP OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS BUT REMAIN
BELOW AND THRESHOLD THAT WOULD SPARK LARGE SCALE FIRE CONCERNS.
IRREGARDLESS THESE LOW MIN RHS AND EXTREME DROUGHT ANY AREAS
AVOIDING MEANINGFUL RAINFALL THIS WEEK WOULD HAVE LOCALIZED ELEVATED
FIRE RISK.
BY TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE
AND WARMER TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDS AND CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MID RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE PICKING UP ON A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK.
DEPENDING ON MOISTURE RETURN TO THE REGION TUES INTO WEDS SOME WEAK
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD FORM ACROSS THE STATE. AS OF NOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PRODUCING ANYTHING IS LOW, BUT IT IS WORTH WATCHING FOR AS ANY
RAINFALL WOULD BE APPRECIATED AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
EXPECT DOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH EARLY FRI
EVENING...AND ONLY SOME ISOLATED/PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
SEEN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING. BREEZY SRLY WINDS WILL ALSO
BE SEEN FOR FRI DAYTIME HRS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE INTO THE
STATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION RETURNING
TO THE FORECAST AT THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD ACROSS NWRN
SECTIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 87 58 70 42 / 10 70 80 20
CAMDEN AR 88 63 74 42 / 0 20 80 50
HARRISON AR 84 50 62 39 / 20 90 40 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 86 58 70 42 / 10 50 80 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 88 60 72 44 / 0 40 80 30
MONTICELLO AR 88 66 78 46 / 0 10 80 60
MOUNT IDA AR 85 56 68 41 / 10 60 70 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 85 52 65 39 / 30 80 50 10
NEWPORT AR 88 60 71 43 / 10 50 80 20
PINE BLUFF AR 88 63 74 43 / 0 20 90 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 87 57 69 41 / 10 60 60 10
SEARCY AR 88 59 73 41 / 10 50 80 30
STUTTGART AR 87 63 73 45 / 0 30 90 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...62
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