374
FXUS64 KLZK 260501
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1101 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 104 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
-ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
-RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT UNIMPACTFUL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
-DRY AND SETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
RECENT OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS DEPICTED A SFC LOW MOVING EWRD ACRS
THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION, W/ BROAD SWRLY SFC FLOW OVER THE
NATURAL STATE. EXPECT A WARMING DAY ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN W/ INCRSG
CLOUD COVER BY THIS AFTN. INCRSG RAIN CHANCES WL BE NOTED OVER THE
ERN HALF OF THE STATE BY WED EVNG INVOF AN ADVANCING WEAK WRM
FRNT, AND IN CONJUNCTION W/ A PASSING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AMIDST
MEAN NWRLY H500 FLOW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN MEAGER W/ POPS
TONIGHT THOUGH, W/ AREA TOTALS ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR
PORTIONS OF ERN TO SERN AR THROUGH THURSDAY.
THRU THE WEEKEND, MEAN SWRLY SFC FLOW WL KEEP TEMPS MODERATING
TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL VALUES, E.G., +10-15F TEMP DEPARTURES AT
MOST LOCATIONS, W/ MOSTLY DRY CONDNS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEKEND, H500 FLOW IS PROGGED TO DE-AMPLIFY AND
TREND TOWARDS A MORE ZONAL CONUS PATTERN, ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG
CANADIAN SFC HIGH MOVING ACRS THE NRN TIER AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
MOST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REMAINS STEADFAST ON A CDFRNT ALONG
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS SFC HIGH SURGING SWRD TOWARDS THE SRN
CNTRL US BY SUN EVNG.
AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL H500 FLOW WL ALSO YIELD LEE SFC CYCLONIC
FLOW, W/ SFC TROUGHING EXTENDING NEWRD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU,
RESULTING IN A QUASI-STATIONARY FRNT OVER NRN AR AND SRN MO. THIS
FEATURE WL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE REGION, W/
THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE CURRENTLY MOST FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL THRU THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED
STATIONARY FRNT IS EXPECTED TO STAY ROOTED OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SEMI- CUTOFF SWRN US UPPER LOW.
DISCREPANCIES STILL REMAIN PERTAINING TO TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF
THIS FEATURE, WHICH ALSO TRANSLATES ACCORDINGLY TO QPF.
LOOKING AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM AND BEYOND, ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUIDANCE FOR H500 FLOW HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY ADVERTISING A
TRANSITION TOWARDS A WETTER PATTERN FOR THE SRN US AS WE HEAD INTO
MARCH, E.G., MEAN WRN US TROUGHING AND SWRLY FLOW ACRS THE
NATURAL STATE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS WILL PERSITS THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS CURRENTLY HANGING ACROSS OUR AREA ROUGHLY
BETWEEN HRO AND BPK TAILING BACK TO FSM. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIBLE IN MOST TERMINALS BUT EXPECT NE WINDS ON THE N SIDE OF
THE FRONT AND SW WINDS ON THE S SIDE OF THE FRONT. CIGS WILL
LOWER TO IFR/LIFR ACROSS MOST SRN TERMINALS BY THURS MORNING. AS
THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER S CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR /VFR. PASSING
SHRA AND LOWER CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PBF AND LLQ FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY, BUT DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THIS
CYCLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 69 48 66 42 / 10 20 20 0
CAMDEN AR 76 57 76 48 / 10 10 20 10
HARRISON AR 71 47 66 41 / 0 10 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 73 52 74 47 / 10 20 20 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 72 52 69 46 / 10 20 30 10
MONTICELLO AR 75 59 74 50 / 10 20 30 20
MOUNT IDA AR 74 51 75 45 / 10 10 20 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 69 44 65 39 / 0 10 10 0
NEWPORT AR 65 50 64 43 / 10 30 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 74 56 71 47 / 10 20 30 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 72 49 72 44 / 10 10 20 0
SEARCY AR 70 48 67 43 / 10 20 30 10
STUTTGART AR 69 54 68 47 / 10 30 30 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...78
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