423
FXUS64 KLZK 200644
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
144 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
-CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS FOR WESTERN INTO
NORTHWEST SECTIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
-DRIER LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY
-BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LATER THURSDAY INTO
MIDDAY FRIDAY
-UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED SE OF THE STATE EARLY THIS WED
MORNING...WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ONGOING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SFC
BOUNDARY REMAINS WEST/NW OF THE STATE WHERE THE LOWER DEWPTS ARE
NOTED. AN UPPER WAVE WAS DRIFTING INTO THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER
NEAR/SOUTH OF FSM JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC BOUNDARY. EXPECT SOME
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THIS SAME REGION
...AND AREAS JUST NORTH INTO THE MORNING HRS. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
LOOKS TO DECREASE BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS AS
THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF AR...AND UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...KEEP SOME MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR CENTRAL/SRN
SECTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS AS THE SFC
FRONT/DEWPT BOUNDARY DROPS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE STATE.
POPS WILL INCREASE BACK NORTH ON THU INTO FRI AS THE SFC FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. A NEW UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO LIFT NE
OVER THE REGION AROUND THIS SAME TIMEFRAME...AIDING IN PROVIDING
LIFT FOR MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING.
WHILE THE THREAT FOR SEEING SVR WX REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...MAINLY
DUE TO TIMING OF THE THU NIGHT/FRI SYSTEM...THERE MAY STILL BE AN
ISOLATED STRONG/SVR TSRA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE SEEN...WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD THREAT.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE CONVECTION FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
FROM THE SW OVER THE REGION...AND UPPER WAVES WILL PASS OVERHEAD
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIP ELEVATED
PRETTY MUCH EVERY DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. CHANCES FOR
SVR WX LOOK UNCERTAIN...AND WILL DEPEND ON DETAILS SPECIFIC TO EACH
DAY REGARDING INSTABILITY AND SHR. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL MAY BE
SEEN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. EVEN SO...SOME AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THAT SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
GENERALLY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC
WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE ACROSS THE STATE AT GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING COVERAGE OF RA/TS ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWEST CIGS/VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z THIS
MORNING. SOME SITES COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS BY 21/00Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 74 60 75 64 / 30 10 50 90
CAMDEN AR 82 64 77 64 / 30 20 80 90
HARRISON AR 69 58 71 61 / 20 10 50 80
HOT SPRINGS AR 81 63 75 64 / 20 20 60 90
LITTLE ROCK AR 78 62 75 64 / 30 10 50 90
MONTICELLO AR 81 66 79 66 / 40 30 80 90
MOUNT IDA AR 80 64 74 65 / 30 20 70 90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 70 58 73 61 / 30 10 40 80
NEWPORT AR 75 61 77 64 / 50 10 50 90
PINE BLUFF AR 80 64 77 65 / 30 20 60 90
RUSSELLVILLE AR 79 63 75 64 / 20 10 60 90
SEARCY AR 76 60 76 63 / 30 10 50 90
STUTTGART AR 79 64 77 66 / 30 10 50 90
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...67
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