602
FXUS64 KLZK 052244
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
544 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
-CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS
FRIDAY
-CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
-OVERALL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE SEEN
-OPPRESSIVE HEAT MAY SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK...WITH HEAT
HEADLINES BECOMING POSSIBLE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED AREAWIDE EARLY THIS FRI MORNING AS
RESULT OF THE WARM FRONT THAT LIFTED NORTH ON THU...AND THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEN. WHILE MOST PRECIP HAS ENDED EARLY THIS FRI
MORNING...WEAK SW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE FOR FRI.
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY PASS OVERHEAD IN THIS SW FLOW
ALOFT...AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HRS. BEST POPS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS WRN/NWRN SECTIONS...BUT SOME STRAY SHRA MAY STILL BE
SEEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AR SIMILAR TO THU. MOST PRECIP SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
CHANCES FOR MORE CONVECTION RETURN FOR SAT...WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED
TO BE MORE SIGNIFICANT. THIS WILL BE RESULT OF AN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTH FROM TX INTO OK...AND WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING NE
OVER AR IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ON SUN...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES...AND WEAK UPPER WAVES PASS OVERHEAD. BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO DECREASE AS UPPER
FLOW BECOME LESS SIGNIFICANT OVER THE REGION. EVEN SO...ENOUGH
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY EXIST TO SEE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEEING ANY ORGANIZED SVR WX AND WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW DUE TO NO MAJOR
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED
STRONG/SVR CONVECTION MAY BE SEEN EACH DAY...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BY THE MIDDLE/LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO REMAIN LOW...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REMAIN HIGH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME NEAR CRITICAL HEAT
INDEX LEVELS AS EARLY AS MON/TUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND A
BIT MORE WIDESPREAD LATER NEXT WEEK. IF THIS TREND LOOKS TO COME TO
FRUITION...HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED SOMETIME NEXT WEEK AS A
RESULT OF OPPRESSIVELY HOT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS TO REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, A LOWERED CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE AND LOWER ALL TERMINALS TO IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY.
ADDITIONALLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN TERMINALS, ALL OTHER
TERMINALS HAVE BEEN DESIGNATED A VCSH FOR A LACK OF CONFIDENCE
PRECIPITATION DOES MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS. INTO
SATURDAY MIDDAY, A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE STATE STATE MAY SEE
VCTS, WHICH WOULD REMAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. CIGS WILL IMPROVE AT THE SOUTHEASTERN
TERMINALS OF KPBF AND KLLQ TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT VCTS WILL STILL BE PRESENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 68 83 70 83 / 10 40 50 90
CAMDEN AR 71 85 71 86 / 10 50 40 90
HARRISON AR 67 78 68 80 / 20 60 40 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 71 82 71 83 / 10 70 60 90
LITTLE ROCK AR 70 83 71 84 / 10 50 50 80
MONTICELLO AR 72 84 72 86 / 10 60 40 80
MOUNT IDA AR 70 81 71 82 / 20 60 60 90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 67 79 68 80 / 20 60 50 90
NEWPORT AR 69 85 71 85 / 10 30 40 80
PINE BLUFF AR 71 84 72 85 / 10 40 50 80
RUSSELLVILLE AR 70 81 71 84 / 10 70 60 100
SEARCY AR 68 84 70 85 / 10 60 50 80
STUTTGART AR 72 85 73 85 / 10 40 60 80
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page