394
FXUS64 KLZK 030505
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1105 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 142 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
-PRECIPITATION CHANCES CENTRAL TO NORTH ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY
-STALLED FRONT WILL KEEP A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES TODAY
-PATTERN SHIFT WILL CREATE POTENTIAL FOR A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR MORE
-POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL...WITH THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASING OVER TIME
-POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO INCREASING
DURING THE NEXT WEEK...BUT DETAILS ON DAYS/LOCATIONS OF BEST
POTENTIAL REMAIN UNCERTAIN
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MON
MORNING...DRAPED FROM SOUTH OF PBF TO SOUTH OF ADF...TO SOUTH OF
FSM. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PASSING ESE OVER NRN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE...WHICH IS CAUSING THE SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA
OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE SATE BY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION SLOWLY DECREASING BY MID/LATE MORNING.
THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THIS
MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP GENERALLY LOW
WITH NO UPPER WAVES PASSING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL CREATE A SIGNIFICANT
RANGE IN TEMPS FOR THIS THIS MON...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS NRN/NERN SECTIONS...TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ACROSS THE SOUTH. NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL SEE INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR TEMPS TO VARY FROM THE FORECAST AS ANY MOVEMENT NORTH/SOUTH CAN
KEEP TEMPS COOL...OR WARM SEVERAL DEG.
BY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL INITIALLY...WITH A NEW WEAK WAVE MOVING OVER THE STATE. THE
SFC BOUNDARY WILL THEN START TO LIFT NORTH...WITH SOME INCREASED
POPS FOR NRN/NWRN SECTIONS AS THIS FRONT MOVES NORTH. BY THE
DAYLIGHT HRS ON TUE...FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION FURTHER TO BE A
MORE NWRLY DIRECTION. THE SFC FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF AR AS THIS
HAPPENS...AND SRLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE WILL INCREASE. TEMPS
STATEWIDE WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT...WITH HIGHS FOR
MOST AREAS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. THE FORECAST LOOKS TO REMAIN
GENERALLY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD...EVEN AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION.
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY LATE TUE INTO WED AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE START
OF A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN...WHICH LOOKS TO BRING MANY ROUNDS OF
PRECIP TO THE REGION...AND POSSIBLY OPPORTUNITIES FOR STRONG/SVR
CONVECTION.
THE FIRST WAVE OF ORGANIZED PRECIP MAY START ON WED AFTERNOON INTO
THU AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS ENE FROM KS INTO
MO...WITH A SFC FRONT DROPPING SE INTO NWRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING BEFORE LIFTING
BACK NORTH LATE THU. SHRA/TSRA WILL BECOME LIKELY ALONG/AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU MORNING. SOME AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN...ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW STRONG/SVR TSRA. THERE
STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR THE FRONT MOVES SE INTO
THE STATE...AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER ENERGY WILL EXTEND. BOTH
THESE SITUATIONS WILL DICTATE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
FALL...AND ALSO WHERE THE BEST FOCUS FOR ANY STRONG/SVR CONVECTION
WILL EXIST. CURRENTLY...LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A LIMITED WINDOW OF
STRONG/SVR CONVECTION...MAINLY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY GIVEN THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER ENERGY PASSING OVER THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF THE UPPER WAVE WERE TO BE
STRONGER...AND SHIFT SOUTH SOME...THIS MAY OVERCOME SOME OF THE LACK
OF INSTABILITY. THESE DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE IMPACTFUL STRONG/SVR WX WITH THIS
ROUND.
WHILE THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP POTENTIAL THU INTO FRI...
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION LOOK POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MORE UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION
IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE SFC BOUNDARY MEANDERS AROUND. MANY
QUESTIONS ARISE HOWEVER ON DETAILS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...SUCH AS
WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY MAY END UP...AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE IN THE COMING DAYS AND REFINE
THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY AS NEW DATA IS ANALYZED TO SEE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...AND IF/WHEN ANY ORGANIZED STRONG/SVR
CONVECTION MAY BE SEEN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF KHRO AND KBPK WILL FACE PERIODS OF PATCHY
FOG AND A LOW CLOUD DECK THAT WILL DROP VSBY TO CIGS TO MVFR AND
IFR; TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS
LOWER TO LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL RETURN TO
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THE CENTRAL TERMINALS
OF KLIT, KHOT, AND KADF WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS FROM A LOWERED
CLOUD DECK EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING, BUT LIFT TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. ALL SITES WILL EXPERIENCE SURFACE WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 55 47 77 60 / 50 10 10 20
CAMDEN AR 79 55 80 60 / 10 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 54 47 78 60 / 40 20 20 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 77 55 79 60 / 30 10 10 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 53 79 60 / 40 0 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 81 58 80 63 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 77 56 78 60 / 30 10 10 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 49 46 78 58 / 40 20 20 40
NEWPORT AR 50 48 77 60 / 60 10 10 20
PINE BLUFF AR 81 55 80 61 / 20 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 71 52 80 60 / 30 10 10 20
SEARCY AR 64 48 78 58 / 50 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 74 54 78 61 / 30 0 0 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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