920
FXUS64 KLZK 110651
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1251 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
-LIGHT RAIN WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT EXITS
THE STATE.
-BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
-A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD, BENEFICIAL RAIN TO
THE STATE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ORIENTED ROUGHLY
ALONG A LINE FROM MENA TO RUSSELLVILLE TO JONESBORO WITH LIGHT
RAIN POSITIONED ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT. THIS FRONT IS BRINGING A
NOTABLE TEMPERATURE SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE BUT THE RANGE IN TD
VALUES IS MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT. NORTHERN AR DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
28-32 F RANGE WITH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR DEWPOINTS IN THE 55-65
F RANGE. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND RAIN WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF TOWARD THE S/SE AS
WELL.
DRIER CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS SOUTH TOWARD THE STATE.
THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND MORE FOCUSED ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF
THE STATE AS THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE TO THE EAST OF
ARKANSAS. THE H500 MAP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING TO THE WEST OF THE STATE AND TROUGHING TO
THE EAST.
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A QUICK MOVING H500 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE BAJA CA PENINSULA TO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. A CORRESPONDING SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH. THIS
WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL, RAINFALL TOTALS
IN THE 1.5-2.5 INCH RANGE APPEAR LIKELY WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE.
THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW ACROSS ARKANSAS WITH BETTER CHANCES
TO THE SOUTH, GENERALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA. BUT, EVEN
THERE, SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING TIMING AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR
AVAILABLE ENSEMBLES SHOW A MORE SRLY TRACK FOR THE MAIN H500
SYSTEM AS WELL AS THE SFC LOW. THIS WOULD REINFORCE THE IDEA OF
ANY SEVERE THREAT REMAINING TO THE SOUTH.
THERE WON'T REALLY BE ANY COLD AIR BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER, CIG AND VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT A
CONCERN AS THESE SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND DAYBREAK. SOME PERIODIC GUSTY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIG'S GENERALLY AOA
5 KFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL SCATTER OUT TO JUST HIGH CLOUDS BY
THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 59 34 58 39 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 65 39 67 45 / 20 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 58 37 60 40 / 0 0 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 64 38 64 44 / 10 0 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 60 36 62 41 / 0 0 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 64 40 66 46 / 20 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 65 37 65 44 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 59 34 57 38 / 0 0 10 10
NEWPORT AR 56 34 56 40 / 0 0 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 60 36 63 43 / 10 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 64 37 62 43 / 0 0 0 10
SEARCY AR 59 33 59 38 / 0 0 0 10
STUTTGART AR 58 37 60 43 / 10 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...77
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