365
FXUS64 KLZK 180729
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
229 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY
AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA THROUGH SATURDAY
- DRY AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION, BELOW 30TH PERCENTILE MIN
RHS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
THE 600DM H500 RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE REGION FOR SEVERAL
WEEKS NOW IS FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND WILL
STAY IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. WITH IT WIDE SPREAD NEAR
RECORD & RECORD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE
THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE AREA WILL BE QUICKLY TAPPED OUT WITH
A DRY AIR MASS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-
SOUTH. THE DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T'STORMS THAT HAVE PROVIDED A
LITTLE RAIN TO THE LUCKY FEW THEY POPPED UP OVER WILL SHUT OFF INTO
THE WEEKEND. VERY LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE
UNTIL POPS BEGIN TO INCREASE MID NEXT WEEK.
THE DOWNWARD DEW POINT TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE DRY AIR ENTERING THE REGION, WHICH IS A DOUBLE EDGE SWORD. THE
DRIER AIR WILL TAKE AN EDGE OFF THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES AND
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO BE REMOVED FROM THE HEAT
ADVISORY, AND POTENTIALLY REMOVING ALL HEAT HEADLINES BY MID NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ALSO START TO DROP MIN RHS BELOW 30TH
PERCENTILE OVER THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY HREF PROBS OF SUB 30 PERCENTILE
RH RANGE BETWEEN 40% AND 50% STATEWIDE WITH A BULLSEYE OF HIGHER
PROBS IN THE MS RIVER DELTA. SATURDAY SHOWS WIDESPREAD 50% TO 70%
WITH SCATTERED 80%+ BULLSEYES AROUND THE STATE. THE MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING HAVE BEEN SOME HELP WITH FIRE
WEATHER DUE TO SATURATED LOW LEVELS KEEPING FIRE BEHAVIOR SOMEWHAT
MORE TAME. AS AFTERNOON RHS CRATER FIRE BEHAVIOR IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE IN VERY DRY FUEL BEDS.
SOME RELIEF MAY BE IN SITE BY MID NEXT WEEK. THE H500 RIDGE SHOULD
FINALLY SHOW SOME WEAKNESS AND BREAK DOWN AT THE START OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL MO WITH AN
ATTACHED COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAFFLE ON
TIMING/INTENSITY/EXTENT OF THE FRONT RUN TO RUN. CURRENT TRENDS AND
PATTERN SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT SOUTH
ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CWA, LIMITING THE MORE SEASONAL TEMPS
AND POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLE RUNS ARE NOW STARTING TO FAVOR OF A MORE ELONGATED H500
PATTERN INSTEAD OF A REINTENSIFYING RIDGE, THIS COULD FINALLY BE THE
BREAK IN THE PATTERN TO ALLOW MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS TO BUILD BACK
IN, OR IT COULD BE MORE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS JOINING THE TRANSITION
SEASON CLIMATOLOGY BIAS. CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THE ENSEMBLE IS STILL
SPLIT ON MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS OR RETURN TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
UNTIL A DISCERNIBLE PATTERN BREAKDOWN OCCURS EXPECT MORE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL TO CONTINUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 102 74 101 72 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 99 69 99 70 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 96 72 96 71 / 10 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 99 71 98 71 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 100 74 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 98 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 99 68 97 68 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 98 71 97 70 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 100 73 100 72 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 99 71 99 71 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 100 72 99 71 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 101 72 101 70 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 101 74 101 73 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ007-008-016-017-024-
025-031>034-039-043>047-057-121>123-130-138-230-238.
SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...78
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