675
FXUS64 KLZK 242324
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
624 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A WINDOW FOR ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARKANSAS
WILL BEGIN THIS MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
- OVERALL, THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WILL HIGHLIGHT INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE STATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
FRIDAY (TODAY) THROUGH MONDAY EVENING:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE PULSES WILL PASS OVER
ARKANSAS FOR THE DURATION OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SPECIFICALLY THE
MOST PRONOUNCED SWTS WILL MOVE OVER ARKANSAS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY TODAY.
TODAY (FRIDAY) WILL BE A TWO-PART POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS ARKANSAS.
FIRST, THE WEAKENING MCS MOVING INTO ARKANSAS WILL POSE A
LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE WITH A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ISOLATED AREAS OF LARGE HAIL, AND A TORNADO
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
SECOND, THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE MCS MAY EITHER ENHANCE OR HINDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
SCENARIO 1: A QUICK MOVING MCS WHICH MOVES FAST THROUGH THE STATE
AND ALLOWS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO BECOME CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ALLOWING STORMS TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A TORNADO OR TWO
AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
SCENARIO 2: A SLOWER MOVING MCS WHICH TRACKS ACROSS ARKANSAS WILL
HINDER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO BECOME CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE AS DAYTIME HEATING WOULD BE SUPPRESSED.
INTO SATURDAY, THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY
ACROSS ARKANSAS. HOWEVER, A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MOVE INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
INTO SUNDAY, A SIMILAR SITUATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS
ARKANSAS WITH A COMPLEX OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND MOVING INTO ARKANSAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TIMEFRAME. ALL HAZARDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE, BUT GREATEST RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
INTO MONDAY, A MUCH MORE CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
MATERIALIZES ACROSS ARKANSAS. A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ENDING UP ACROSS THE MID-WESTERN REGION
OF THE CONUS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY EVENING WITH AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. IN RESPONSE, A WARM
SECTOR WILL OPEN UP ACROSS THE STATE WITH INCREASED SURFACE WARMING
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP STATEWIDE AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WITH ALL
HAZARDS POSSIBLE: LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. THE ACTIVITY ON MONDAY WILL BE COME TO A CLOSE ACROSS THE
NATURAL STATE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
STATE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH SHORTWAVE PULSES
CONTINUING TO TRAVERSE OVER ARKANSAS AND MULTIPLE STATIONARY
BOUNDARIES DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE OVER THIS PERIOD. IT REMAINS TOO
EARLY FOR SPECIFICS, BUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
LINE OF STORMS AND TRAINLING SHOWERS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY HAVE
ALMOST WORKED OUT OF THE STATE TO THE E. CIGS WILL RECOVER
SLIGHTLYIN BETWEEN ROUNDS OF T'STORMS IN THE EARLY EVENING. A
COMPLEX OF T'STORMS WILL WORK ALONG THE SW CORNER OF THE AREA.
T'STORM COVERAGE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER CLOSER TO I-40 AS OF NOW,
LEFT VCTS IN SOUTHERN TERMINALS FOR NOW AS LINE PASSES. FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN TERMINALS DEPENDING ON CLEARING OF UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR BY
MIDDAY TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 70 59 80 60 / 100 70 20 30
CAMDEN AR 74 61 80 62 / 90 90 20 80
HARRISON AR 70 55 78 58 / 100 30 10 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 71 60 79 60 / 90 80 20 80
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 62 81 63 / 90 80 20 60
MONTICELLO AR 74 62 82 63 / 90 80 30 60
MOUNT IDA AR 71 59 79 60 / 90 70 20 80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 70 55 79 58 / 100 40 10 40
NEWPORT AR 71 61 79 62 / 100 70 10 30
PINE BLUFF AR 74 62 79 62 / 100 90 30 60
RUSSELLVILLE AR 71 59 80 61 / 100 50 10 70
SEARCY AR 70 59 81 60 / 100 80 20 40
STUTTGART AR 74 63 79 64 / 100 80 30 50
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...78
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