300
FXUS64 KLZK 201731
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1131 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
-SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY S/SE ARKANSAS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS ARE SEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
-MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
YESTERDAY'S H500 SHORTWAVE AND CORRESPONDING SFC LOW CONTINUE TO
MAKE PROGRESS NORTHEAST, NEARLY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE STATE AND DRY AIR AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST IN ITS WAKE. DRY AIR AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE STATE TODAY, BUT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MUCH LOWER GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF S/SE ARKANSAS. THIS WILL BE DUE IN PART TO THE COLD
FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN AR AS A WARM FRONT AND A
PASSING SHORTWAVE IN THE H500 SW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRONT, JUST
NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. SO, SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FORECAST BECOMES DRY.
FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY H500 RIDGING WILL REALLY BUILD ACROSS
THE WESTERN US WHILE LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
EASTERN US. THIS WILL PROVIDE STEEP N/NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE
WITH STRONG SFC RIDGING BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL PROVIDE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY, THE WESTERN US RIDGE WILL EXPAND EAST AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR AND MVFR CONDTIONS TO PERSIST THOUGH THE PERIOD. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF LA EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND BRING WITH
IT SOME LOWER CIGS. LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. WINDS TO
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE N/NE FOR THE PERIOD. CIGS TO LOWER ACROSS
REGION OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE VFR LIMITS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 39 52 30 52 / 30 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 45 60 33 58 / 30 20 0 0
HARRISON AR 36 47 26 48 / 30 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 42 57 31 57 / 30 20 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 42 55 32 56 / 30 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 47 60 35 57 / 40 20 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 41 57 30 57 / 30 20 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 36 49 26 49 / 30 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 42 50 30 51 / 40 20 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 44 56 32 55 / 30 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 42 55 29 57 / 30 10 0 0
SEARCY AR 39 53 28 54 / 40 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 44 54 31 52 / 40 10 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...78
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