619
FXUS64 KLZK 091730
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1230 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
-VERY PLEASANT END OF WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND
-LIMITED POPS IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS FROM STALLING COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON
-MONDAY WILL BE THE FIRST WAVE OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND
T'STORMS NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SURGES OF MOISTURE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DEW POINTS WILL RISE UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
STATE. THURSDAY WILL BE A GREAT CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER DAY.
VERY FEW CLOUDS, SSE WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO JUST ABOVE
80 WILL MAKE NOT TAKING A LONG LUNCH VERY HARD. WITH THESE VERY
PLEASANT CONDITIONS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SWING ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND.
UP NORTH THE FIRST SYSTEM IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN STARTS TO BREW
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL EJECT
A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MID-WEST. AS THE
FRONT ADVECTS SOUTHWARD IT BEGINS TO RUN INTO THE TEETH OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE. MOST ORGANIZED SHOWERS WILL HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA AS THE
FRONT STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN MO. MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY
TO OUTRUN THIS FRONT AS THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF IT REMAIN
COMPARATIVELY DRY AND STABLE. POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTH MOST
ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES ACROSS AR. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE IT WILL
BE ANOTHER GREAT DAY TO BE OUTSIDE. HIGHS WILL RAISE ANOTHER FEW
DEGREES CLOSER TO THE MID 80S. A FEW UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES BUT THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ENJOY THE SUN.
INTO THE WEEKEND THE DELIGHTFUL WEATHER CONTINUES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE S AND SLOWLY SHIFT FROM A SSE TO S TO JUST SSW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH DRIVING AN ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT
WEEK BEGINS TO NUDGE OUT THE RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS
TRANSITION TO S MID-DAY SUNDAY, THE LLJ WILL BEGIN TO STREAM MUCH
RICHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND REMAIN RATHER STOUT THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN A MORE ACTIVE
PERIOD OF WEATHER THAT WILL LAST THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK. A SUBTLE
SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH BASED ON THE
FOUR CORNERS. THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR STORMS HAS BEEN
ROUGHLY BASED AROUND THE GREATER I-35 CORRIDOR OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS. AS STORMS APPROACH THE CWA THEY WILL BECOME MORE UPSCALE
AND BEGIN TO BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS.
AFTER THE FIRST WAVE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A LOT OF MODEL VARIANCE
STILL REMAINS AS THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. TIMING IN THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS HAS BECOME THE MAIN DETERMINER OF THE TYPE AND
SEVERITY OF ANY HAZARDS WE MAY GET. TUESDAY'S DYNAMICS APPEAR TO
SUPPORT THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR SPINNING STORMS BUT WILL BE LIMITED
ON FORCING AND LACK OF CAPE. HODOGRAPHS WEDS BECOME MORE ELONGATED
AND STRAIGHTER PROMOTING SPLITTING CELLS AND MORE OF A STRAIGHT LINE
WIND EVENT. REGARDLESS OF SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME, THAT WILL BE
IRONED OUT CLOSER TO THE EVENT, SEVERAL DAYS OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER
ARE LIKELY ACROSS AR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE VALID TAF PERIOD. ANY
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS WILL OCCUR AFTER 10/18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 80 58 81 59 / 0 0 30 10
CAMDEN AR 81 58 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 78 58 79 57 / 0 0 70 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 80 58 81 59 / 0 0 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 80 58 83 59 / 0 0 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 80 58 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 80 59 80 58 / 0 0 20 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 80 57 80 57 / 0 0 60 20
NEWPORT AR 80 57 82 60 / 0 0 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 80 56 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 81 58 82 59 / 0 0 30 10
SEARCY AR 80 55 82 57 / 0 0 20 0
STUTTGART AR 80 58 82 60 / 0 0 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...55
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