045
FXUS64 KLZK 181722 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1222 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
-A TREND OF INCREASING TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT ACROSS ARKANSAS
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD
-HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE
20 TO 25+ DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE STATE COMPARED TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
-A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE RAPID CLIMB
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WHICH
ARE FORECAST TO BE 20 TO 25+ DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. DAILY MAX HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ON THURSDAY, FRIDAY,
AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE MET OR EXCEEDED ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS IN
ARKANSAS.
AN UPPER LVL REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN REGION OF THE CONUS PROMOTING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
ARKANSAS. AT THE SFC, A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT AND A SHIFT TO WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE NOTED
TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, AT THE SFC, A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN AND EFFECTIVE WAA VIA THE UPPER LVL HEAT DOME BUILDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN REGION OF THE CONUS WILL BECOME ELONGATED INTO LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND COUPLE WITH WARM, DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE. LATEST NBM AND VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTION OUTPUTS (BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC) CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AGREEMENT FOR
POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND
SATURDAY ACROSS ARKANSAS. SATURDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
APPEAR THE MOST PROLIFIC WITH NORTHERN ARKANSAS FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S... CENTRAL ARKANSAS FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S (A FEW LOCATIONS MAY
REACH THE MID 90S)... SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A
CONCERN AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY OVERALL AND A PERSISTENT WIND
WILL BE PRESENT KEEP ANY HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURE. HOWEVER, SUCH AN INCREASED TEMPERATURE CHANGE MAY BE
BE A SHOCK TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS (ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE
POPULATIONS), CAUTION AND HEAT SAFETY ARE ENCOURAGED DESPITE THE
LACK OF CONCERNING HEAT INDEX VALUES AS ACCLIMATION TO HEAT OF
THIS MAGNITUDE DURING THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS NOT TO BE EXPECTED
FOR PEOPLE OR ANIMALS.
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. IN RESPONSE, THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
OVERALL BACK TO VALUES THAT ARE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. INTO THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NIL. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
USHER IN ANY RAINFALL AS PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS OVER THE NEXT TWO
WEEKS ACROSS ARKANSAS ARE SIGNALING BELOW AVERAGE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDNS TO PREVAIL THRU THE PD W/ PASSING HIGH CLOUD
COVG TO NOTE. GUSTY WRLY WINDS WL BEGIN TO RELAX BY WED EVNG, W/
CALM TO VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT, AND SWRLY WINDS
RESUMING ON THURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 48 80 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 48 80 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 50 82 53 86 / 0 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 48 80 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 49 80 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 49 78 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 50 82 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 46 82 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 46 78 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 48 78 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 47 83 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 45 80 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 48 77 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...72
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