777
FXUS64 KLZK 271150
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
650 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
- COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE STATE TODAY
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY
- NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING (NORTH AR)
- VERY DRY AIR EXPECTED IS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH INCREASING WILD
FIRE THREAT
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID/LATE WEEK WITH PATTERN CHANGE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS AR EARLY THIS FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS
WERE HOLDING IN THE 60S AND 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE STATE FROM THE N TODAY WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AND FALLING TEMPS (40S/50S) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN WAKE
OF THE BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BECOME N/NERLY
BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UPWARDS 25-35 MPH. WHILE WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THESE SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, RANGING FROM A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS WILL BE
OVER THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDY
SKIES, FALLING TEMPS, BLUSTERY WINDS, AND SCATTERED PRECIP WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL MUCH COLDER BY LATE AFTERNOON THAN COMPARED
TO THIS MORNING.
SYNOPTICALLY, AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS WITH WEAK WNW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL/UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
USHER DRIER AND COLDER AIR INTO THE STATE. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY
MORNING MAY APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK OVER NRN AR HOWEVER
ELEVATED WINDS AND MAX RH VALUES REMAINING IN THE 50-60% RANGE
SHOULD PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION. IF YOU HAPPEN TO HAVE SENSITIVE
PLANTS OUTDOORS ACROSS NRN AR IT IS A BEST PRACTICE TO BRING THEM
INSIDE SHOULD READINGS FALL BELOW 32 DEGREES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE OH VALLEY ON SATURDAY
SWITCHING WINDS LOCALLY TO THE E. GIVEN DRY AIR IN PLACE (MIN
AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 10%-20% RANGE) AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL, THE WILDFIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME S/SWRLY AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO MODIFY. ALOFT, THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FOR A COUPLE
DAYS, PROLONGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ACROSS AR. HIGHS DURING THIS
PERIOD OF TIME MAY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S THROUGH MID-WEEK.
SYNOPTIC SCALE CHANGES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON BY TUESDAY. ZONAL
PATTERN SHOULD TRANSITION TO SWRLY FLOW AS A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGHS DIG ACROSS THE SW CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY, A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL HAVE
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK TO THE SW INTO TX. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FAVORS FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. IN
ADDITION TO TIMING BEING OFF, A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH A
PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WHAT THESE SYSTEMS COULD BRING TO THE
STATE IS MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS AS LOW
STRATUS MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE N. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH POST-FRONTAL SHRA AFFECTING MOST
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT RANGING
FROM 20-30KT GUSTS OUT OF THE N/NE. GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE FRI
NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS RETURNING TO ALL TAF SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 65 36 62 40 / 70 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 79 43 66 42 / 30 20 0 0
HARRISON AR 57 34 62 43 / 80 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 73 41 64 43 / 60 20 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 72 40 62 41 / 50 20 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 78 43 66 44 / 20 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 72 41 64 43 / 60 20 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 59 33 62 40 / 80 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 66 38 61 41 / 70 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 75 41 63 41 / 40 20 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 68 39 64 41 / 70 10 0 0
SEARCY AR 68 36 62 38 / 60 20 0 0
STUTTGART AR 72 41 62 43 / 50 20 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70
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