281
FXUS64 KLZK 221140
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
-A PERIOD OF RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME HEAT WILL BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY,
THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY RESULTING FROM A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE OF ARKANSAS TODAY.
-INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOLLOWING WORKWEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD BACK OVER ARKANSAS LEADING TO INCREASED TEMPERATURES
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES.
-HEAT PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE ONCE AGAIN WARRANTED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE STATE BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
WEDNESDAY (TODAY) THROUGH FRIDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, THE RIDGE FIXATED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE CONUS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS IS BEGINNING TO
ELONGATE OR DE-AMPLIFY ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE AS A
NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEY REGIONS OF THE CONUS RESULTING IN THE DRIVING OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS ARKANSAS. A TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE STATE OF ARKANSAS WILL ALLOW A SLIGHTLY COOLER,
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO SPILL INTO THE STATE IN WAKE OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT. IN RESPONSE, ARKANSAS WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW DAYS IN
WHICH AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO VALUES
WHICH ARE ANTICIPATED AS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
AT THE SFC, IN TANDEM WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE OF ARKANSAS, A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS AND RESULT SURFACE WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS. THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE CRITICAL IN ALLOWING THE ADVECTION OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE STATE OVER THIS PERIOD. THE ONLY APPRECIABLE
DAY FOR POP CHANCES WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS THE PROXIMITY OF A
LOCALIZED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
PROVIDE A LIMITED, BUT PRESENT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, THE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
BACK EASTWARD OVER ARKANSAS AND INTENSIFY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE ESTABLISHED UPPER LVL REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL LEAD TO SUBSIDENCE OR SINKING AIR OVER ARKANSAS WHICH WILL
PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS.
AT THE SFC, THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
ARKANSAS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN
LOUISIANA, BUT THEN PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS ARKANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN TANDEM WITH THE STRENGTHENING
OVERHEAD RIDGE, THE PASSAGE OF THIS SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BECOME PRESENT AT THE SURFACE ACROSS
ARKANSAS ADVECTING IN A COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN TRANSPIRE INTO INCREASED AIR
TEMPERATURE VALUES, INCREASED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES; THEREFORE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE AGAIN BACK TO
NEAR AND ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE BY THE
FOLLOWING WORKWEEK ALONG WITH HEAT INDICES WHICH WILL WARRANT HEAT
PRODUCTS AND LIKELY REACH WELL INTO THE TRIPLE DIGIT VALUES BETWEEN
105 TO 115+ DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY TO REMAIN FOR THE ENTIRE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD BETWEEN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20+ KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE
CENTRAL, SOUTHEASTERN, AND SOUTHWESTERN TERMINALS OF KLIT, KHOT,
KADF, KPBF, KLLQ FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 90 69 87 68 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 96 72 92 72 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 87 67 86 67 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 94 72 91 72 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 92 72 89 70 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 93 74 91 74 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 93 71 90 71 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 86 67 84 67 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 88 70 86 68 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 91 72 90 72 / 0 0 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 93 72 90 71 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 90 70 88 69 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 91 72 90 72 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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