031
FXUS64 KLZK 171121
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
521 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
-BREEZY WINDS AND LOW MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CREATE AN ENHANCED WILD
FIRE THREAT TODAY AND SUNDAY
-VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN FOR TUESDAY
MORNING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR MANY AREAS...AND WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
-FORECAST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT SOME
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL REMAINS LOW
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
SOME SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP HAVE BEEN MOVING EAST/SE ACROSS
THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA LATE ON FRI EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HRS THIS SAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES OVER NRN AR. MOST
AREAS HAVE REMAINED DRY...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE SEEN...THOUGH
SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SLEET OR SNOW AS WELL AS THIS WAVE
PASSES OVERHEAD. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE FILTERING INTO THE STATE
BEHIND THE FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRI.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF VERY
DRY AND MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVING THIS SAT AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW UNDER THIS NEW UPPER
SHORTWAVE...BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DEWPTS WILL CRATER BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ENHANCED WILD FIRE THREAT
TODAY AS GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE SEEN WITH RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW
30 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS. SOME AREAS MAY SEE RH VALUES DIP BELOW 20
PERCENT.
WINDS WILL RELAX BY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SW OF AR. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR LOWS SUN
MORNING FOR MOST AREAS...AND WHAT WIND REMAINS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MOST AREAS. A
FEW SPOTS COULD SEE WIND CHILLS DROP TO AROUND OR BRIEFLY BELOW
ZERO.
SRLY WIND WILL RETURN AND INCREASE FOR SUN AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. THE ENHANCED WILD FIRE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE SUN AFTERNOON...WITH RH VALUES DIPPING INTO THE 15 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE. THE SRLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS SUN
AFTERNOON...BUT ANOTHER NEW FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION ON
MON...DROPPING TEMPS BACK DOWN.
FLOW ALOFT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NW AS
MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES PASS SE OVER THE REGION...BRINGING THE MULTIPLE
COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE STATE. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SEEN...AND SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
AR BY WED AHEAD OF A NEW WEAK UPPER WAVE. SRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME INCREASING MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SURGE
NORTH INTO THE STATE. AT THE SAME TIME...A NEW COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SE INTO AR AHEAD OF A NEW UPPER SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE STATE
ON WED INTO THU.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL STILL LOOKS
LIMITED AS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVING THIS FAR
NORTH BEFORE THE FRONT ISN'T VERY HIGH. THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
REMAINS UNCERTAIN ALSO...BUT WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER
TIME ON HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY BE SEEN. THERE IS ALSO SOME
QUESTION ON TEMPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALSO
COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE/LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NW AND WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY AT TIMES. WINDS
WILL RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 39 16 40 23 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 44 18 46 25 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 34 12 44 20 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 41 17 45 26 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 41 19 43 26 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 47 22 45 29 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 42 15 47 26 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 35 12 44 20 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 39 17 39 24 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 44 18 44 27 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 42 15 47 25 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 41 14 42 23 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 41 18 41 26 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...73
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