976
FXUS64 KLZK 192337
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
637 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
-LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
-THREAT FOR SEEING SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIMITED BY INSTABILITY...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARY THREAT
-LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT
TODAY
-UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
ALL QUIET ACROSS AR SO FAR EARLY THIS TUE MORNING...WITH SOME BREEZY
SRLY WINDS NOTED. TEMPS REMAIN WARM IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
DEWPTS ALSO IN THE 60S AND 70S. A LINE OF TSRA IS ONGOING ACROSS NRN
OK INTO SERN KS AND WRN MO...SLOWLY MOVING SE OVER TIME. THIS LINE
OF CONVENTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY WX STORY THROUGH THIS TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EXPECT THIS LINE OF CONVECTION TO DROP SE INTO THE STATE SOMETIME
NEAR SUNRISE...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SE THROUGH THE STATE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SVR CONVECTION WITH
THIS LINE AS IT MOVES SE WILL BE LIMITED BY INSTABILITY...WHICH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY LACKING. SHR IS ALSO LIMITED
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...WITH THE HIGHEST 0-3 KM SRH THIS MORNING
JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE OVER NWRN SECTIONS. WHILE THIS DOESN'T MEAN
ORGANIZED SVR WX WON'T HAPPEN...JUST MEANS THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED...AND LIKELY ISOLATED IN NATURE. IF SVR CONVECTION WERE TO
DEVELOP...DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH SOME
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL POSSIBLE ALSO. THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT LOOKS
TO REMAIN LOW...AND MAY BE LIMITED TO FAR NWRN SECTIONS DURING THE
MORNING HRS WHEN THE SRH IS BEST. HOWEVER...THIS IS ALSO WHEN CIN
WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THAT TORNADO THREAT
LOW.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN AS THIS LINE OF CONVECTION
DROPS SLOWLY SE OVER TIME. WHILE MOST OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BE
WELCOME GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS...THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED SPOTS SEE ENOUGH RAINFALL THAT COULD CREATE AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
BEYOND THIS EVENING...CHANCES FOR PRECIP DO DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. HOWEVER...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN SW OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
WAVES WILL PASS OVER THE STATE...WHICH WILL CREATE SOME FORCING FOR
CONVECTION GENERALLY EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SVR WX LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME...LATE MAY CLIMATOLOGY SUGGEST SOME SVR THREAT MAY BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. WHEN...WHERE...AND WHAT SVR THREAT MAY EXIST WILL DEPEND
ON DAY TO DAY SPECIFICS REGARDING THE STABILITY AND SHR. AS A
RESULT...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN UNCERTAIN FOR NOW. THE THREAT FOR
SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT 4-7 DAYS MAY INCREASE GIVEN
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE...BUT ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK KEEP THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS
WELL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AND OUT OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT. VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO IFR AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
THEN GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR/VFR ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY BE DEVELOP NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME TO PLACE IN THE TAF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 66 74 60 74 / 60 40 30 50
CAMDEN AR 66 82 65 79 / 60 40 50 80
HARRISON AR 60 70 58 72 / 50 30 30 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 66 80 63 75 / 50 30 30 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 66 78 62 75 / 60 30 30 70
MONTICELLO AR 68 82 66 80 / 80 50 40 80
MOUNT IDA AR 66 79 64 74 / 50 30 40 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 60 70 58 73 / 50 40 20 40
NEWPORT AR 65 76 61 77 / 60 50 30 60
PINE BLUFF AR 67 81 64 78 / 60 40 30 80
RUSSELLVILLE AR 65 77 62 75 / 50 30 30 60
SEARCY AR 64 77 60 76 / 60 50 30 60
STUTTGART AR 68 79 64 77 / 60 50 30 70
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...76
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