857
FXUS64 KLZK 112327 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
627 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
-WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
-OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK
-THE MOST WIDESPREAD/HEAVIEST PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AR
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
THERE AREN'T MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING
AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR SO REMAINS FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED RECENTLY. LOOKING AT THE H500
LEVEL, A PERSISTENT RIDGE WILL GENERALLY RESIDE OVER THE GULF
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE US. EXTENDING NORTH OF THIS
FEATURE, A RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY
EASTWARD AND WILL LARGELY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
LOOKING ACROSS THE WESTERN US, A ROBUST CYCLONE WILL MOVE ONSHORE
ALONG THE NORTHERN CA COAST SUNDAY AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER
MOVING INLAND. WITH TIME, THIS CYCLONE WILL OPEN AND ELONGATE
BEFORE EJECTING E/NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY LATER NEXT
WEEK. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
IS PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL SW FLOW ALOFT. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE PUMPED NORTHEASTWARD.
AS PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.
FOR ARKANSAS, WE ARE GENERALLY ON THE SIDELINES FOR MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY AS THE SE US RIDGE WILL LARGELY REMAIN MORE DOMINANT THAN
THE SYSTEMS ATTEMPTING TO WORK AGAINST IT. SO, WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL
BE MOST FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF TOWARD
THE MS RIVER. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
INCREASE FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH RETREATS SLIGHTLY.
BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AS THE MAIN WESTERN TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
COUNTRY. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS. WITH THE RIDGE'S
INFLUENCE WEAKENED, PRECIP MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS MORE OF
THE STATE.
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE HIGHEST ACROSS WESTERN AR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS
PRECIP DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THESE AREAS
WILL SEE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. THIS COULD
PROVIDE AN INCREASE TO THE WILDFIRE DANGER ACROSS MAINLY NE ARKANSAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR CONDNS WL PREVAIL THRU THE NEW TAF PD... DAILY CU WAS WANING
ON RECENT SAT IMGRY, W/ DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING.
SOME LLWS WL BE PREVALENT ACRS NRN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. MID-LVL
CLOUD COVG WL INCRS ACRS WRN HALF OF AR INTO SUN MRNG, W/ LOWER
CLOUDS MOVING IN BY 18-21Z SUN AFTN. GUSTY SRLY WINDS WL ALSO BE
NOTED, W/ SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KTS, AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20
KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 63 82 67 81 / 0 20 60 50
CAMDEN AR 61 84 64 82 / 20 20 60 50
HARRISON AR 63 78 65 82 / 20 50 60 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 62 82 64 79 / 20 40 60 50
LITTLE ROCK AR 63 84 67 82 / 20 20 60 50
MONTICELLO AR 62 84 66 84 / 20 10 30 40
MOUNT IDA AR 63 80 64 78 / 20 50 60 50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 63 80 65 82 / 10 40 60 20
NEWPORT AR 63 82 67 81 / 0 10 40 50
PINE BLUFF AR 62 84 65 83 / 20 10 50 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 63 82 65 81 / 20 50 60 40
SEARCY AR 59 84 64 82 / 0 20 50 50
STUTTGART AR 63 83 67 82 / 20 10 50 50
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...72
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