240
FXUS64 KLZK 071103
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
603 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AT LEAST.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE IN THE
WEEK OVER PARTS OF THE EAST AND THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
CONVECTION DID FIRE UP PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MID EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING CELLS NOTED OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWEST AT THIS TIME. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION, IT IS A STORY OF THE HAVES AND HAVE NOTS WITH
RADAR ESTIMATES RANGING FROM NOT A DROP TO A FEW INSTANCES WHERE AS
MUCH AS THREE INCHES FELL.
OTHER THAN THE WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST, IT IS
GENERALLY RAIN FREE ACROSS THE STATE ALTHOUGH A POP UP SHOWER OR
STORM CAN NEVER BE DISCOUNTED. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR NOW IN PLACE BEHIND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE PIECE OF ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTION ON MONDAY IS NOW
LOCATED OVER NE ARKANSAS IN THE BASE OF A WEAK, POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE STATE BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BUT BEFORE IT DOES, ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. CAMS GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THE CONVECTION MUCH MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE VERSUS MONDAY
AND DISSIPATING QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE FA ON WEDNESDAY
BUT WITH THE ENERGY WELL TO THE NE, ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING CONVECTION AS HIGHER
PRESSURE TRIES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SET
UP WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TRENDING UPWARDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY TO MID JULY ACROSS THE FA
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S TODAY AND THEN JUST 90S
ACROSS THE BOARD MOVING FORWARD. LOWS ALSO LOOK CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. HEAT INDICES WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY
WHEN SOME AREAS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE RIVER VALLEY GET CLOSE
TO OR EXCEED CRITERIA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING BUT VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL, BUT
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION, MAY BE SEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
COVERAGE AND LOCATION DETAILS TOO UNCERTAIN TO MENTION WITHIN
INDIVIDUAL TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND AVERAGE
UNDER 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 88 70 90 73 / 40 20 20 0
CAMDEN AR 90 71 91 73 / 20 10 20 20
HARRISON AR 85 68 89 73 / 10 10 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 91 72 92 75 / 20 10 20 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 90 73 92 76 / 20 20 20 10
MONTICELLO AR 91 72 92 75 / 20 20 30 10
MOUNT IDA AR 90 71 91 74 / 20 10 20 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 85 69 89 72 / 20 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 88 72 90 74 / 30 20 20 0
PINE BLUFF AR 89 71 91 74 / 20 10 20 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 91 73 94 76 / 20 10 20 0
SEARCY AR 89 71 92 73 / 30 10 20 0
STUTTGART AR 89 73 91 75 / 20 10 30 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...56
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