456
FXUS64 KLZK 140646
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1246 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TODAY, DRIVING
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH, AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
MPH.
- SOME RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN ACROSS NORTHERN TO NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH TODAY, BUT VERY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
- VERY DRY AIR, CRITICALLY DRY SHORT-TERM FUELS, AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL KEEP LOCAL WILDFIRE DANGER ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON.
- DRY WEATHER AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
THE GREATER ARKANSAS FCST REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY BOUTS OF COOLER
THAN NORMAL TO MOSTLY NORMAL TEMPS, W/ SOME MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES
ACRS NRN TO ERN AR THRU PARTS OF WED, AND DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER.
LATEST SFC ANALYSES AND SFC OBS INDICATED AN APRCHG CDFRNT WAS
MOVING THRU SRN MO AND INTO NRN AR. AREA RADAR IMGRY SHOWED LIGHT
PRECIP INVOF THE FRNT, THOUGH W/ SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVER NRN
AR IN EXCESS OF 20F, SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING WL BE NEEDED BEFORE ANY
PRECIP REACHES THE GROUND THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD. COLD ADVECTION
SHOULD AID IN THE PROCESS, W/ SOME VERY MINIMAL QPF POSSIBLE OVER
NRN TO NERN AR THRU THE DAY WED.
AS THE FRNT MOVES ACRS THE STATE TODAY, GUSTY NWRLY WINDS WL
PREVAIL, W/ SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15-20 MPH, AND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
AT TIMES. CRITICALLY DRY AREA 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS AND
STRONG WINDS WL PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF WILDFIRE DANGER CONCERNS, SO
ANY PUBLIC BURNING SHOULD BE POSTPONED.
THRU THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS
STEADFAST ON MEAN H500 TROUGHING STAYING ROOTED OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. W/ A STRONG MERIDIONAL COMPONENT OF THE
POLAR JET STAYING POSITIONED OVER THE CNTRL US, A FEW INTRUSIONS OF
CANADIAN CONTINENTAL AIR ARE EXPECTED, W/ THE NEXT ROUND OF
COLD...AND EXTREMELY DRY...AIR SURGING SWRD DURING THE SAT-SUN
TIMEFRAME.
THRU MOST OF THE PD, HIGH TEMPS WL TOP OUT IN THE 40S AT MOST
LOCATIONS W/ NIGHTLY FREEZING CONDNS EXPECTED. THURS MRNG WL HOST
THE FIRST COLD MRNG W/ AREA LOWS IN THE 20S, AND UPPER TEENS OVER
NRN AR ACCOMPANIED BY WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS. IN THE WAKE OF
THE SECOND CDFRNT, SUN MRNG WL FEATURE LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS ACRS
NRN AR, AND LOW 20S ELSEWHERE, W/ WIND CHILLS FALLING TO SINGLE
DIGITS OVER NRN AR. MORNING LOWS SHOULD MODERATE UPWARDS THEREAFTER,
BUT WL STILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE PD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, HOWEVER
CEILINGS WILL BE LOWERING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES BY DAYBREAK
FROM THE NORTH. BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING, BUT CEILINGS HAVE ROUGHLY A 50-70% CHANCE OF DIPPING INTO
THE MVFR RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE INTO VFR WITH
PRIMARILY SKC BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE GUSTY
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH PRIMARILY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
GUSTS 20-30 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 53 22 44 32 / 20 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 58 24 48 32 / 20 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 49 20 45 34 / 10 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 56 24 48 33 / 10 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 56 25 46 32 / 20 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 58 27 47 34 / 30 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 55 23 49 34 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 49 20 43 31 / 10 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 52 22 42 31 / 40 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 57 25 46 33 / 30 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 55 24 47 30 / 10 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 54 22 44 29 / 20 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 54 24 43 33 / 40 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...77
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