092
FXUS64 KLZK 131135
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
535 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 108 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
- WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.
- VERY DRY AIR, CRITICALLY DRY SHORT-TERM FUELS, AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP LOCAL WILDFIRE DANGER ELEVATED AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON.
- A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF MORE SEASONABLE
TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
NOT MANY CHANGES TO ADVERTISE TO THE FORECAST, W/ WARMING TRENDS
EXPECTED THRU MID-WEEK PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF AN INITIAL CDFRNT ON
WED, W/ COLDER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURNING THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK.
RECENT OBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSES DEPICTED SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACRS
THE SRN GULF COAST, W/ STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON DECK FOR THE NATURAL STATE, W/
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S TODAY. IN
ADDITION TO WARMER TEMPS, GUSTY W-SWRLY WINDS WL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION, W/ GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF NRN AR. THIS WL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED THREAT OF WILDFIRE DANGER AS AREA
SHORT TERM FUEL MOISTURE REMAIN VERY DRY (GENERALLY 10%).
WED, A STRONG CDFRNT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACRS THE STATE THRU THE
DAY, USHERING IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO THE SRN CNTRL US. SOME LOW-
CHC POPS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FROPA WED AFTN TO EVNG, MAINLY ACRS NRN
TO NERN AR, BUT OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL, GENERALLY LESS THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRNT, COLD MORNING LOWS WL OVERSPREAD THE STATE ON THURS MRNG,
W/ AREA TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW TO MID 20S, AND WIND CHILL
VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK, COOLER AND SETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING STAYS ROOTED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGIONS, DRIVING BROAD SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FA. PER THE LATEST
SUITE OF GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE, ANOTHER CDFRNT LOOKS TO MOVE THRU THE
CNTRL US ON SAT, W/ COLDER MORNING TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE ON
SUN MRNG, E.G., LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AND WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACRS NRN AR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS, THE EXCEPTION BEING HRO,
THROUGH MOST OF THIS MORNING AHEAD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING
WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SUBSIDE GOING THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 66 44 52 23 / 0 50 20 0
CAMDEN AR 64 42 57 26 / 0 10 10 0
HARRISON AR 67 42 49 20 / 0 40 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 64 44 55 25 / 0 20 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 65 44 55 26 / 0 30 20 0
MONTICELLO AR 64 45 57 28 / 0 10 30 0
MOUNT IDA AR 66 44 55 24 / 0 10 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 69 42 49 20 / 0 50 10 0
NEWPORT AR 64 44 52 23 / 0 60 30 0
PINE BLUFF AR 65 44 56 26 / 0 20 30 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 67 43 56 24 / 0 20 10 0
SEARCY AR 66 42 54 22 / 0 50 20 0
STUTTGART AR 63 44 54 25 / 0 30 30 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...77
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