427
FXUS64 KLZK 311718
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1218 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
-DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
-AREA TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 90 DEGREES, WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
-SETTLED WEATHER AND LOWER HUMIDITY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
RECENT RADAR IMGRY DEPICTED ELEVATED PRECIP ACTIVITY MOVING NEWRD
ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR. THRU 12Z SUN MRNG, THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE EWRD ACRS THE NWRN PORTION OF THE FA. INTO THE DAY SUN, A
RINSE AND REPEAT PATTERN IS EXPECTED, W/ HOT AND HUMID AFTN CONDNS
PREVAILING. MLCAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG OVER MUCH OF AR, W/ 20 TO 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL THRU THE AFTN TO EVNG HOURS.
SIMILAR TO SAT, HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE HAZARDS W/ ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT.
MON, NWRLY H500 FLOW REMAINS PROGGED TO INCRS IN MAGNITUDE ACRS THE
MID-SOUTH AS A SHORTWAVE TROF PIVOTS SWRD INTO MEAN ERN US
TROUGHING. A CORRIDOR OF MORE ORGANIZED MCS POTENTIAL REMAINS
POSSIBLE ACRS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY, AS DEPICTED BY SHEAR
PROFILES, ANTECEDENT INSTABILITY, AND NUMEROUS MODEL DEPICTIONS OF
COLD POOLS DEVELOPING IN LOW-LVL MASS FIELDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE STILL
EXISTS ON FINER DETAILS SUCH AS TIMING AND LOCATION OF MCS ACTIVITY
MON AFTN TO EVNG, BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE STILL EXISTS ON ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE MON AFTN TO
EVNG.
IN ADDITION TO AFTN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, AREA TEMPS ARE FCST TO
REACH THE LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF CNTRL TO SRN AR, ALONGSIDE DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AFTN HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
100 DEGREES OR MORE ACRS PORTIONS OF AR, LARGELY IN THE AR RIVER
VALLEY AND ERN CNTRL AR, AND WBGT TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 85 TO 88
DEGREES. FOR JUN 1, THESE FCST VALUES CORRESPOND TO WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEAT RISK OVER MUCH OF CNTRL TO SRN AR.
TUES INTO WED, BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WL EXTEND
SWWRD INTO THE SRN CNTRL US, W/ NERLY SFC WINDS USHERING IN MUCH-
ANTICIPATED DRIER AIR, AND PROVIDING SOME MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FM THE
HUMIDITY. THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, UPPER RIDGING WL SHIFT
EWRD, UPPER LVL SUBSIDENCE CENTERING OVER THE FA, AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE QUELLING AREA PRECIP CHANCES TO JUST LOCAL DIURNAL
ACTIVITY. BY FRI AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, SFC MOISTURE AND LOCAL
PRECIP CHANCES ARE FCST TO RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD FROM EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL SITES. A PERIOD OF VCTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING, BUT STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED. HOWEVER,
ANY ISOLATED CELL THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
VERTICALLY EXTEND UPWARDS OF 30,000 TO 40,000+ FEET AGL AND THE
ENVIRONMENT WITHIN AND NEAR THESE CELLS WILL HAVE A HIGH
DOWNBURST/MICROBURST POTENTIAL. ANY CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY EVENING. A SECONDARY COMPLEX OF VCTS IS
EXPECTED TO NEAR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF KHRO AND KBPK ON MONDAY
MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 71 90 69 83 / 30 50 20 0
CAMDEN AR 72 96 71 91 / 10 10 20 10
HARRISON AR 69 88 66 82 / 20 20 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 73 95 72 89 / 10 20 20 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 72 93 71 85 / 10 20 40 0
MONTICELLO AR 73 95 72 89 / 10 20 50 10
MOUNT IDA AR 73 94 72 89 / 0 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 68 88 67 82 / 40 30 10 10
NEWPORT AR 71 91 69 84 / 30 60 30 0
PINE BLUFF AR 73 94 71 87 / 10 20 40 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 73 93 72 87 / 0 10 20 10
SEARCY AR 70 92 69 84 / 20 40 40 0
STUTTGART AR 73 92 72 86 / 20 30 40 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page