954
FXUS64 KLZK 231018
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
418 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 209 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING TODAY
-WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS, WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS WINDS STRENGTHEN
-A TRANSITION TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FAVORED LATE IN THE WEEK,
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE,
HOWEVER THE HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE TODAY, WEAKENING
THE WINDS, AND THUS LIMITING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AS THIS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASY BY TOMORROW, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN, RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT THIS
TIME, NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, AS THIS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE DEW POINTS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, COUPLED WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE THAT WOULD
INHIBIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT (~30 KNOTS AT
900 MB) REACHING THE SURFACE.
WARMING TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGHING FEATURE WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SURFACE LOW DEEPENING EAST OF THE
STATE, SO THE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AXIS REMAINS TO THE EAST.
SOME SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFTING, PARTICULARLY FROM THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES, IS NOTED, WHICH WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER
RAIN AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME, EVEN THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD
ONLY RESULT IN MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN
ARKANSAS, GENERALLY 0.10"-0.25" AT THIS TIME.
ADVANCING FORWARD LATE THIS WEEK, THE MID-WEEK TROUGHING WILL
EJECT TO THE EAST, WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTING INTO AND
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE POLAR JET WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH,
BUT AN ENHANCED JET FROM A PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD AID IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS QUITE
A BIT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS, WITH NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGES
CAPTURING THIS BEST, WHERE THERE'S 20-25 DEGREE SPREADS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES STARTING SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE ENTIRE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST IN EXCESS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT THE
SITES OF KHRO, KBPK, KLIT, KPBF, AND KLLQ ON MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SURFACE WINDS LOSE THEIR GUSTING
CONDITION AND BEGIN TO LIGHTEN OVERALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 43 26 59 43 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 52 28 64 47 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 43 26 63 43 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 51 28 63 46 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 47 28 62 46 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 47 28 62 48 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 52 28 64 46 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 42 25 62 41 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 41 26 57 44 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 46 26 61 47 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 51 27 63 43 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 44 23 59 42 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 43 27 59 46 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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