048
FXUS64 KLZK 161751
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1151 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
-BRIEF WARM UP AND MOISTURE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A NEW COLD FRONT
-NEW FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE STATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH
DRIER/COOLER AIR RETURNING. A REINFORCING SURGE OF VERY COLD/DRY AIR
ARRIVES ON SATURDAY
-COMBINATION OF VERY DRY AIR AND ELEVATED WINDS MAY CREATE SOME MORE
SIGNIFICANT WILD FIRE CONCERNS ON SATURDAY
-COLDEST AIR SETTLES ACROSS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MANY AREAS SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SINGLE DIGIT
LOWS MAY BE SEEN FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS. WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH
ZERO UP NORTH...AND SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS FURTHER SOUTH SUNDAY
-RAIN CHANCES/WARMUP COULD RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
LIGHT SRLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED LATE THU AND INTO EARLY THIS MORNING
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTED EAST. THESE SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING...BUT A NEW COLD FRONT TO THE NW WILL DROP SE INTO THE
STATE LATER THIS MORNING...DROPPING SE OF AR BY THIS EVENING. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES SE TODAY...THERE MAY BE SOME VERY LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT OVER NERN SECTIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE DIVES SE
TOWARD THIS PORTION OF AR. GIVEN VERY LIMITED MOISTURE LEVELS...KEEP
POPS LOW AT THIS TIME.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TONIGHT IN WAKE OF THIS NEW FRONT.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE ON SAT AS THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE AXIS DROP SE OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THIS HAPPENS...AND WITH DEWPTS
CRATERING DOWN FROM THE 20S TODAY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN
BELOW ZERO BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THESE VERY DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED
WITH INCREASING WINDS MAY CREATE ENHANCED WILD FIRE CONDITIONS ON
SAT AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING...KEEPING MIN RH VALUES
FROM DROPPING AS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY COULD.
WITH THIS LATEST COLD SURGE ON SAT...WELL BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS
WILL BE SEEN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS BY SUN
MORNING MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS...MAYBE EVEN SOME
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE. WIND CHILL VALUES SUN MAY DROP TO NEAR ZERO
AT TIMES ACROSS NRN SECTIONS...AND SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FURTHER
SOUTH.
THE DRY FORECAST WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHIFT SOME TO THE EAST BY LATE IN THE FORECAST...WITH SOME RELAXING
IN THE NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. SRLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE
REGION...WITH SOME INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR
SOME RAINFALL LOOK TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS A RESULT MID
WEEK...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SEEING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS
FAIRLY LOW THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WERE
SWITCHING FROM SW, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS REACHING 20-25KTS. TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NRN SITES, OTHERWISE VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN ON SAT. WINDS GUSTING 15-25KTS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 28 40 16 41 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 30 45 19 46 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 24 34 13 44 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 30 42 18 46 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 31 43 19 44 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 33 48 22 45 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 29 42 16 47 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 25 36 13 44 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 28 39 18 39 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 32 44 20 44 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 28 42 17 47 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 27 41 16 42 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 31 41 20 41 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page