538  
FXUS64 KLZK 142308 AAA  
AFDLZK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
608 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
   
AVIATION
 
 
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT AN  
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN SITES DURING THE DAY  
SATURDAY, AS PRECIP SHIELD FROM PLAINS SYSTEM PASSES JUST NORTH OF  
ARKANSAS.  
 
NOTE TO USERS OF THE HRO AND BPK TERMINALS...  
THERE CONTINUE TO BE COMMUNICATIONS ISSUES AT BOTH LOCATIONS  
PREVENTING METARS FROM BEING TRANSMITTED LONGLINE. TECHNICIANS  
FROM THE NWS AND FAA ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE ISSUES, BUT AT  
THIS TIME, WE DON'T KNOW HOW SOON THEY WILL BE FIXED. AS SUCH, FOR  
THE TIME BEING...AT LEAST THIS SET OF TAFS, THERE WILL BE NO  
AMENDMENTS AT EITHER LOCATION.  

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
(ISSUED 258 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021)  
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY  
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITH AN  
UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST.  
THIS RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH AND EAST SATURDAY AND WILL PASS THROUGH  
ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING A TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE  
WEST.  
 
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST, A WARM FRONT WILL CLIP NORTH  
ARKANSAS THIS EVENING BEGINNING A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY  
SURFACE FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED DEW POINTS AND RAIN  
CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND  
FURTHER NORTHEAST AND WEST SUNDAY.  
 
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND IN THE UPPER  
50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER  
70S TO LOWER 80S, AND IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY.  
 
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY  
LONG TERM MODEL RUNS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THAT FROM SUNDAY  
EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL  
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD, WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ENE AROUND A RIDGE BUILDING  
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL HAVE PROVIDED PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY  
FLOW IN THE REGION, PROVIDING WAA AND INCREASED MOISTURE. THIS FLOW  
WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DEVELOPING LOW TO  
OUR WEST. LONG TERM DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR  
FORECAST PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO COME IN ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL  
90TH PERCENTILE FROM EARLY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. DUE  
TO THE BLOCKING HIGH OUT EAST, THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WITH HIGH  
MOISTURE CONTENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ONE TO THREE INCHES OF  
RAINFALL ACROSS THE STATE, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE  
WESTERNMOST PORTIONS, THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.  
 
FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE UPPER LOW OUT WEST WILL  
HAVE MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT (WITH  
AGREEMENT BETWEEN ALL LONG TERM MODELS AND CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS  
RUNS), DURING WHICH TIME FORECAST PWAT VALUES WILL BE AT THEIR  
HIGHEST. THIS HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE  
INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AR, AND AN ADDITIONAL  
HALF TO ONE INCH ELSEWEHERE IN THE STATE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL  
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL, BUT THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO  
BE FLOODING, DUE TO PERSISTENT RAINFALL, FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF  
HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.  
 
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. SEVEN DAY FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM THREE TO SIX  
INCHES OVER THE WSW, AND ONE TO THREE INCHES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE  
STATE.  
 

 
   
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
AVIATION...57  
 
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