159
FXUS64 KLZK 211133 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
633 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018
UPDATED
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
PREV DISCUSSION
(ISSUED 349 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018)
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
EARLY MORNING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS, ELSEWHERE,
CLEAR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
DRIER AIR WAS ADVECTING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE AS EVIDENT OF QUICKLY FALLING DEW POINTS. SOME GUSTY WINDS
WERE ALSO OBSERVED ACROSS NE AR. THE REMAINING HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SKY CONDITIONS
BECOMING CLEAR STATEWIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FALLING AS DRY AIR MOVES IN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH, AROUND 40 DEGREES CENTRAL, AND MID 40S ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AR WHERE FROST MAY DEVELOP AND
DAMAGE OR KILL SENSITIVE PLANTS LEFT UNCOVERED. COLD MORNING LOWS
WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR ON MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR. FROST MAY DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE NATURAL STATE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER
60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL WARM SLIGHTLY WITH LOWER TO
MID 60S EXPECTED. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ON TUESDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATE. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT, AS THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH TIME FOR ANY DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE RETURN. UPPER
RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH A
SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING. AT THE SAME TIME, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO ENHANCING UPLIFT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
THE SYSTEMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE NORTH AMERICAN LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY,
WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS WILL ACT TO PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH MORE RAIN CHANCES.
THROUGH THE PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
(ESPECIALLY MAXIMUMS) DUE TO A COMBINATION OF PREDOMINANT NORTHEAST/
EASTERLY WIND FLOW, DECREASING SUN ANGLE, AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-LAWRENCE-MARION-NEWTON-
RANDOLPH-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.
AVIATION...JONES
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