474
FXUS64 KLZK 051709
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1209 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
- SCATTERED PM SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS;
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION
- HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
- UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENSURES HOT/DRY WX PERSISTS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
- BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY BRING LOWER HEAT INDICES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AR BENEATH AN
ELONGATED AND EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE. THIS PERSISTENT RIDGE HAS
BROUGHT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND BELOW AVERAGE PRECIP TO MANY
LOCATIONS OVER THE PAST THREE TO SIX WEEKS. THERE ARE SOME WINNERS
IN REGARDS TO AUGUST MONTHLY RAINFALL, BUT THAT DOES NOT SPEAK
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE WHICH ENDED UP AT VARYING DEGREES OF
BELOW AVERAGE MONTHLY AND SEASONAL (METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER) TOTALS.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN HEADING THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD INCREASE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE SRN MS VALLEY. THIS WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD POP
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE
INTENSIFIES, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
LOWER 100S. GIVEN THIS, A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE LITTLE ROCK COUNTY WARNING AREA
WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 ARE EXPECTED. A BRIEF
REPRIEVE FROM HEAT INDICES IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF NE SURFACE WINDS BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPS MAY NOT BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT BUT DEW
PTS SHOULD BE LOWER RESULTING IN LOWER OVERALL HEAT INDICES.
RELIEF SHOULD BE TEMPORARY THOUGH AS WINDS SWITCH BACK TO THE S/SW
ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETREAT OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
DESPITE UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS, A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS AR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES E TO W AROUND THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE STATE FROM THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL WORK TO
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 20% FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LITTLE
TO NO BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED IN AN PARTICULAR LOCATION.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW SHIFTING TOWARDS A POTENTIAL
WEAKENING/RETROGRADING OF THE RIDGE DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
TIME FRAME WHICH COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR WEATHER SYSTEMS TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE STATE. BEYOND THIS PERIOD, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD EWRD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY
DWINDLING.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED ACROSS THE STATE WITH ALL
COUNTIES NOW HIGHLIGHTED BY "HIGH" WILDFIRE DANGER. BURN BANS OCCUPY
ALL BUT 3 OF AR'S 75 COUNTIES. THESE THREE COUNTIES WERE
CONCENTRATED TO N-CNTRL/CNTRL AR WHERE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
OCCURRED IN THE LAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS. WITH LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST, DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE AND
PLANT MOISTURE WILL WORSEN DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND INCREASE THE
STATEWIDE WILDFIRE THREAT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH
THAT SAID, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER AND SHRA/TSRA ARE KEPT OUT OF TAFS.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NE TO E THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 77 104 71 98 / 10 20 0 0
CAMDEN AR 73 102 73 99 / 10 20 20 0
HARRISON AR 75 100 70 94 / 20 20 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 76 103 75 100 / 0 20 20 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 79 100 75 98 / 0 20 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 76 99 75 98 / 0 20 20 0
MOUNT IDA AR 73 103 73 100 / 20 20 20 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 74 102 70 94 / 20 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 77 102 72 97 / 10 20 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 75 101 73 97 / 10 20 20 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 76 104 75 98 / 10 20 10 0
SEARCY AR 76 103 72 97 / 10 20 0 0
STUTTGART AR 77 102 74 99 / 10 20 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ004>008-014>017-024-
025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-
137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-
341.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...73
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