176
FXUS64 KLZK 230506
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1106 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 117 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
-COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY, WITH ABNORMALLY
DRY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED WINDS RESULTING IN SOME ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
-WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS, WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN
-A TRANSITION TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FAVORED LATE IN THE WEEK,
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
CLEAR SKIES ARE DOMINATING OVER THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS STILL IN PLACE, THUS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS 20-30 MPH FOR MOST
AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOME AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
TO WESTERN ARKANSAS, AS DRIER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S THIS AFTERNOON, ANY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN AT BAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY,
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD, CONTINUING NORTHERLY FLOW.
WINDS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER AS THE HIGH CENTER NEAR THE REGION.
THUS, WHILE THE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST, NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR MONDAY.
SOME POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES BEGIN TO CREEP INTO THE
REGION BY TUESDAY, AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE AMPLIFIES EAST
OF THE REGION, WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING AMPLIFYING IN RESPONSE. WHILE
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE ROCKIES, EXPECT WARMING
CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF ARCTIC ORIGIN DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OF THE
ROCKIES MID-WEEK WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH IN TERMS OF A
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND POSSIBLY WETTER OUTLOOK LATE THIS WEEK.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS MUCH BETTER ALIGNMENT, AS THERE IS SOME
CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN NOTED. AS THIS TROUGH TRAVERSES ACROSS THE
MIDWEST, THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE ENHANCED MOISTURE AXIS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL SET UP ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND EAST. THUS, WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD, THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE REGION FOR THIS EVENT AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, ANY SHIFT FURTHER WESTWARD COULD GREATLY CHANGE THE
OUTLOOK OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS IN THIS THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN STRENGTH
ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO THE EARLY HOURS ON MONDAY WITH WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
WINDS ACROSS THE STATE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DUE TO A REGION OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 46 21 43 26 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 58 25 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 42 18 44 27 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 53 26 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 53 25 47 28 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 56 28 47 28 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 52 24 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 42 18 42 25 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 46 24 41 26 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 55 26 46 27 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 54 23 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 50 23 44 23 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 51 25 43 27 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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