689
FXUS64 KLZK 190617
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
117 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2019
AVIATION
19/06Z TAF CYCLE
COMBO OF VFR/MVFR CIGS WL BE NOTED OVR MUCH OF THE FA THRU THIS
AFTN AS MOISTURE/CLOUDS ROTATE ARND LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF
AR. CYCLONIC FLOW WL DECREASE LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, WITH
CLOUDS DECREASING. EXPECT BREEZY NW WINDS LATER TODAY, WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. WINDS WL DIMINISH FRI
EVENING. /44/
PREV DISCUSSION
(ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019)
DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH ITS
BASE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS JUST UPSTREAM OF ARKANSAS AND WAS
SPREADING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IN ITS WAKE, A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE, FINALLY BRINGING RAIN TO AN END. AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER 1 TO 1.25
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE STATE.
WITH MUCH OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS RECEIVING RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM
4 TO 6 INCHES AND DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING, ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A RESULT OF THE
THREAT OF ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH, FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY WITH SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS.
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT FRIDAY NIGHT, AND WITH THE LOSS OF SKY COVER, WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS, WITH UPPER
30S TEMPERATURES BEING FOUND OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE.
THIS WEEKEND SHOULD FEATURE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE STATE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE STATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL
LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, AND SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MONDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN, BUT OVERALL
WILL BE MUCH LIKE SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING
RAIN CHANCES BACK ACROSS ARKANSAS. IT'S TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT IT IS NOT A SYNOPTICALLY OBVIOUS
SET UP FOR SEVERE STORMS, SO WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE ONCE WE
GET CLOSER TO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK TO SEE IF THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT
LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S EACH DAY DESPITE THE INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES.
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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