131
FXUS64 KLZK 102332 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY; LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
- QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOWS AN EXPANSION
FIELD OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS. THE LOW STRATUS
FIELD IS DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND WEAK ASCENT ACROSS THE STATE FROM A NEARLY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE PARENT SHORTWAVE/ CUTOFF LOW
LOCATED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE IN
THE LOWER 70S MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S
OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE STATE RANGED FROM LOWER 70S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE STATE WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ONE-THIRD
OF THE STATE.
A DRY START TO TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE STATE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY THIS AFTERNOON, A WEAK AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE STATE TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WHICH IS AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE STATE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AN ANALYSIS OF BUFKIT,DESI,
AND OTHER SHORT TERM HI-RES MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED STORMS THAT
DUE FORM WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE DUE TO AMPLE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION IN LOWER AND MID LEVELS. THE COMBINATION
OF SB & MU CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE AND BULK SHEAR
OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL DRIVE THE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BUFKIT,
DESI, AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS SHOWS MODEST CLOCKWISE CURVATURE
WITH THE LOWEST LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE POSING A LOW THREAT FOR
ONE OR TWO TORNADOES.
THE STORMS THAT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE A TORNADO WOULD
BE THOSE WHO DEVIATE SOUTHEAST OF THE MEAN FLOW. THERE IS ALSO A
MARGINAL RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST,
WESTERN, CENTRAL, NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS DUE TO THE
THREAT OF TRAINING STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3" INCHES
ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
ARKANSAS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE STATE BEFORE
CLEARING THE STATE AROUND MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRAGS
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT
ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
50-60 KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ THAT WILL
INCREASE FROM 30 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
ON TUESDAY OF 30 KTS TO OVER 50 KT AND CAPE VALUES IN THE
500-1000J/KG ALONG WITH ROBUST ASCENT/FORCING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL LEAD TO STORMS QUICKLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO A
QLCS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH
A SECONDARY RISK OF HAIL THROUGH THE THREAT IS LOW. A FEW
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE STATE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. BY FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING MUCH WARMER
AIR WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE OF MOISTURE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
SURGE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OFF
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, MORE THAN HALF OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATES THAT A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREE PLUS BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
GENERALLY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CIGS, REDUCED VSBY AT
TIMES AND FREQUENT RA/TS ACTIVITY. COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 11/06Z WITH KLLQ SEEING
WIDESPREAD PRECIP THE LATEST. ON THURSDAY, PRECIP WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA FROM NW TO SE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A WINDSHIFT OUT OF THE NW/N ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 20 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 65 74 38 61 / 80 90 20 0
CAMDEN AR 64 75 41 63 / 60 90 60 0
HARRISON AR 58 70 34 61 / 90 90 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 63 73 39 63 / 90 90 30 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 65 74 40 61 / 80 100 30 0
MONTICELLO AR 67 79 43 61 / 30 90 70 0
MOUNT IDA AR 62 74 38 64 / 80 90 20 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 60 71 35 61 / 90 90 0 0
NEWPORT AR 67 73 38 58 / 80 100 30 0
PINE BLUFF AR 65 75 40 60 / 60 100 60 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 64 75 37 64 / 90 90 10 0
SEARCY AR 64 75 38 61 / 80 90 30 0
STUTTGART AR 67 74 40 58 / 60 100 50 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...76
LONG TERM....76
AVIATION...67
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