189
FXUS64 KLZK 150551
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1151 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 112 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
-THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, BUT THE FLOODING THREAT
REMAINS LOW.
-WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
-DRYING OUT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD A PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGES PUSHES OFF TOWARDS THE EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE STATE LATER TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LIKELY. MUCH OF THE STATE CAN EXPECT MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES LIKELY. WITH
THAT SAID, LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4+ INCHES OF RAIN CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS MUCH OF
THE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE STATE INTO LA/MS
BUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE.
CALMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
RAINLY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE GOING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS, WITH LARGEST
COVERAGE FAVORING THE EASTERN TERMINALS. LIFR-MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PRIMARILY PREVAIL THROUGH GENERALLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTHERN TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES ANTICIPATED TO BE LOWEST FOR
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS, WHERE CURRENT 1/4 TO 1/2SM WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE GOING INTO AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP GOING INTO THE MORNING HOURS, WITH 20-25
KTS COMMON ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SKIES CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AS EARLY AS THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS (NORTHERN) TO AS
LATE AS THE EVENING HOURS (SOUTHERN). AS WINDS WEAKEN GOING INTO
TONIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOP DEVELOP WILL INCREASE,
CURRENTLY FAVORING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 54 51 63 40 / 100 100 40 0
CAMDEN AR 64 57 67 42 / 80 100 50 0
HARRISON AR 57 48 62 40 / 100 90 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 62 55 65 42 / 100 100 30 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 65 55 64 42 / 100 100 40 0
MONTICELLO AR 68 59 66 45 / 60 100 80 0
MOUNT IDA AR 59 53 66 41 / 100 100 20 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 55 48 61 38 / 100 100 20 0
NEWPORT AR 57 53 60 41 / 90 100 50 0
PINE BLUFF AR 69 56 63 41 / 80 100 70 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 59 53 66 40 / 100 100 10 0
SEARCY AR 64 52 63 39 / 90 100 50 0
STUTTGART AR 67 56 60 42 / 90 100 70 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...77
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