265
FXUS64 KLZK 070700
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
200 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
-DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM.
-WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY LATE WEDNESDAY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE WEEKEND
-RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS RATHER BENIGN INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED ALONG THE AR/MO LINE HAS FULLY ERODED AROUND MIDNIGHT ON
TUES. WITH THIS EROSION ANY SENSIBLE PATTERN IN WINDS HAS ALSO
DISSIPATED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE LATE
MORNING HOURS WHEN THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO REFORM OVER THE MO
BOOTHEEL. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND REMAIN THE
PREVAILING PATTERN UNTIL LATE WEDS. LOW MIN RHS (NEAR 30TH
PERCENTILE) COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS COULD PRESENT AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TUES INTO WEDS.
BY MIDWEEK A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL FORM OVER THE AREA AND PUSH TO THE
EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE PATTERN INTO A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. WITH THIS MOISTURE
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A QUICK SHOWER EXISTS BUT WILL BE EXTREMELY
UNLIKELY. TEMPS ALSO BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN, HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE AREA THURS EVENING A WEAK RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA AND SHIFT FLOW TO SWRLY. EVEN MORE WARM AND
MOIST AIR WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN
TO RISE LATE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LAST FEW RUNS OF A SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THAT SUPPORTS SEVERAL DAYS OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME A LOT OF DETAIL IS STILL NEEDED TO BE WORKED OUT
IN THE MESOSCALE FOR TIMING, IMPACTS, AND TYPE OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS WERE NOTED EARLY THIS TUE MORNING...WITH
DOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. SOME INCREASING WINDS
WILL BE SEE THIS AFTERNOON AS NERLY WINDS TRANSITION TO MORE
SERLY LATER IN THE FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 70 47 75 54 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 75 51 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 70 46 74 52 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 74 50 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 73 49 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 76 52 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 73 50 76 53 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 68 45 75 52 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 70 47 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 74 50 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 73 49 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 72 45 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 73 50 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...62
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