652
FXUS64 KLZK 022313
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
613 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
+ ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
+ AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
THE MAJORITY FALLING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
+ MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS.
LINE IS MOVING INTO A MUCH LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN
ITSELF AND WILL ONLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. RATHER STOUT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 60S AROUND SUNRISE.
LOW PRESSURE, OVER NE KANSAS THIS MORNING, WILL RACE OFF QUICKLY TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY KEEPING THE CWA IN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. AFTER A
WARM START TO THE DAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WHICH WHILE STILL ABOVE AVERAGE, WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER VERSUS THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS THIS
MORNING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION.
WINDS WILL STAY ON THE BREEZY SIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT APPEAR TO
FALL JUST SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
NO HEADLINES PLANNED THIS MORNING BUT A WARY EYE WILL KEPT ON THE
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON
FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE STATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.
FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY PUSH CONTINUES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING,
PRIMARILY OVER THE WEST, DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SATURDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE ADVANCING
BOUNDARY AND WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE FALLING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NW TO SE SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH. THE SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE
AND QPF WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 2 INCHES OVER THE WEST TO A LITTLE
OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE SE.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURN TO THE CWA STARTING SUNDAY AS DEVELOPING
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PLACES THE CWA IN NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK WAVE
CAUGHT UP IN THE PREVAILING FLOW MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOWER TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME
FRAME APPEARS DRY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE MIGRATES TO THE EAST WITH
TIME.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES BEFORE CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LOWER WITH ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONCERNS RETURNING EVEN
WITH FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT WINDS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
EXPECT A PERIOD MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON FRIDAY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS CIGS LOWER THROUGH LATER FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE ALL SITES RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY. SURFACE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE PRESENT BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS TO BEGIN THE FORECAST
PERIOD ON THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING RELAXED, THEN THE SURFACE
WIND GUSTS RETURN ACROSS ALL SITES LATE FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE
NORTHERN SITES OF KHRO AND KBPK, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT BETWEEN THE LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 68 83 60 70 / 40 60 80 100
CAMDEN AR 66 84 65 74 / 10 50 60 100
HARRISON AR 65 81 53 63 / 60 60 100 70
HOT SPRINGS AR 64 83 59 70 / 30 60 80 100
LITTLE ROCK AR 67 84 63 73 / 20 50 70 100
MONTICELLO AR 68 85 68 77 / 10 50 40 100
MOUNT IDA AR 65 82 56 69 / 40 60 90 90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 65 83 54 65 / 60 60 90 80
NEWPORT AR 68 84 63 71 / 30 40 80 100
PINE BLUFF AR 67 85 66 74 / 20 50 60 100
RUSSELLVILLE AR 66 83 58 70 / 50 60 90 90
SEARCY AR 65 84 61 73 / 30 50 80 100
STUTTGART AR 68 84 67 73 / 20 40 60 100
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ008-017-025.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...74
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