116
FXUS64 KLZK 191112 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
612 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
-LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
-THREAT FOR SEEING SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIMITED BY INSTABILITY...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARY THREAT
-LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT
TODAY
-UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
ALL QUIET ACROSS AR SO FAR EARLY THIS TUE MORNING...WITH SOME BREEZY
SRLY WINDS NOTED. TEMPS REMAIN WARM IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
DEWPTS ALSO IN THE 60S AND 70S. A LINE OF TSRA IS ONGOING ACROSS NRN
OK INTO SERN KS AND WRN MO...SLOWLY MOVING SE OVER TIME. THIS LINE
OF CONVENTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY WX STORY THROUGH THIS TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EXPECT THIS LINE OF CONVECTION TO DROP SE INTO THE STATE SOMETIME
NEAR SUNRISE...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SE THROUGH THE STATE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SVR CONVECTION WITH
THIS LINE AS IT MOVES SE WILL BE LIMITED BY INSTABILITY...WHICH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY LACKING. SHR IS ALSO LIMITED
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...WITH THE HIGHEST 0-3 KM SRH THIS MORNING
JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE OVER NWRN SECTIONS. WHILE THIS DOESN'T MEAN
ORGANIZED SVR WX WON'T HAPPEN...JUST MEANS THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED...AND LIKELY ISOLATED IN NATURE. IF SVR CONVECTION WERE TO
DEVELOP...DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH SOME
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL POSSIBLE ALSO. THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT LOOKS
TO REMAIN LOW...AND MAY BE LIMITED TO FAR NWRN SECTIONS DURING THE
MORNING HRS WHEN THE SRH IS BEST. HOWEVER...THIS IS ALSO WHEN CIN
WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THAT TORNADO THREAT
LOW.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN AS THIS LINE OF CONVECTION
DROPS SLOWLY SE OVER TIME. WHILE MOST OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BE
WELCOME GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS...THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED SPOTS SEE ENOUGH RAINFALL THAT COULD CREATE AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
BEYOND THIS EVENING...CHANCES FOR PRECIP DO DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. HOWEVER...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN SW OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
WAVES WILL PASS OVER THE STATE...WHICH WILL CREATE SOME FORCING FOR
CONVECTION GENERALLY EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SVR WX LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME...LATE MAY CLIMATOLOGY SUGGEST SOME SVR THREAT MAY BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. WHEN...WHERE...AND WHAT SVR THREAT MAY EXIST WILL DEPEND
ON DAY TO DAY SPECIFICS REGARDING THE STABILITY AND SHR. AS A
RESULT...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN UNCERTAIN FOR NOW. THE THREAT FOR
SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT 4-7 DAYS MAY INCREASE GIVEN
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE...BUT ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK KEEP THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS
WELL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A COLD FRONT AND A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
S/SE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY,
MVFR CIGS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS
TS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES THROUGH, BOTH CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED AT TIMES. OVERALL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW AND IT WILL TAKE A LONG TIME FOR PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO
KLLQ. BEHIND THE FRONT AND AFTER THE HEAVIER RAIN/TS ACTIVITY
MOVES THROUGH, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 83 66 75 62 / 80 50 60 40
CAMDEN AR 90 68 82 65 / 80 60 70 60
HARRISON AR 77 61 70 59 / 90 70 50 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 86 67 80 64 / 90 40 60 50
LITTLE ROCK AR 88 67 79 63 / 80 50 70 50
MONTICELLO AR 91 69 82 67 / 70 80 80 60
MOUNT IDA AR 83 67 79 66 / 90 40 70 50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 78 61 71 58 / 90 60 50 30
NEWPORT AR 85 68 77 62 / 70 60 70 40
PINE BLUFF AR 91 68 80 65 / 80 50 70 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 84 66 78 63 / 90 50 60 40
SEARCY AR 86 66 78 61 / 70 50 70 40
STUTTGART AR 90 69 80 66 / 80 50 70 50
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...67
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