853
FXUS64 KLZK 081742
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1242 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
- HEAT ADVISORIES EXTENDED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE STATE
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH BETTER CHANCES LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
- UPPER RIDGE SETTLES IN NEXT WEEK WITH HOT/DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
ANOTHER COUPLE TO FEW DAYS OF ABNORMALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS AR BENEATH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE. BY MID-WEEK, THE
RIDGE SHOULD RELAX AND RETROGRADE INTO THE SWRN CONUS WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS EWRD OFF THE FL/ N & S CAROLINA
COASTS. BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SUNDAY, THE PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY A MIX OF WNW FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE COULD POTENTIALLY BE
STRONGER THAN WHAT WAS IN PLACE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS (500MB
HEIGHTS ~597-600 DECAMETERS).
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NWRD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. TEMPS
HOWEVER WILL BE HOT REGARDLESS OF WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONT YOU'RE ON.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 DEGREES. A
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS
ROUGHLY ALONG AND S OF THE 1-40 CORRIDOR WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH
THE ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WITHIN THE ADVISORY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 105 AND
110 DEGREES. WINDS TODAY WILL SWITCH FROM THE E/NE THIS MORNING TO
S/SE BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH MAXIMIZED DAYTIME
INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY STRONG
STORM.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. HEAT INDEX VALUES GREATER THAN
105 IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY ACROSS A LARGER PART OF AR. HEAT
HEADLINES WILL BE REACCESSED LATER THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON TRENDS UP
TO THAT POINT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER NRN AR. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL SHIFT FROM S/SE TO SW BY AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10-15 MPH.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR WEATHER SYSTEMS TO INTERACT
WITH AR. BEST CHANCE POPS WILL BE OVER NRN THIRD OF AR ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
AR/MO BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY, POP CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARDS CNTRL
AR AND EVEN LOWER POP CHANCES OVER SRN AR. POTENTIAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN AR. OVER CNTRL
AND SRN AR, EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD DRASTICALLY DECREASE
WITH ONLY A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HIGHS EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. HIGH TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. BEYOND SUNDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS INCREASING AND RAIN
CHANCES DECREASING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER NRN/CNTRL/SE TERMINALS BUT DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE, OPTED TO NOT MENTION AT ANY
SITES AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BECOME S/SERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. SKC CONDS SHOULD RETURN WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 76 102 76 97 / 0 10 10 70
CAMDEN AR 73 97 72 97 / 0 10 0 10
HARRISON AR 75 99 73 88 / 0 20 40 70
HOT SPRINGS AR 75 99 74 97 / 0 0 10 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 78 99 77 97 / 0 0 0 30
MONTICELLO AR 76 96 74 97 / 0 10 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 73 99 72 97 / 0 0 10 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 73 100 73 89 / 0 20 40 70
NEWPORT AR 77 100 76 97 / 0 0 10 60
PINE BLUFF AR 75 97 73 97 / 0 10 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 75 101 75 97 / 0 10 0 50
SEARCY AR 75 100 75 97 / 0 0 10 40
STUTTGART AR 77 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-
121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-
241-313-340-341.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ031-032-039-
042>047-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-
240-241-340-341.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...77
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