068  
FXUS64 KLZK 161945  
AFDLZK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
245 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY  
RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT STRONG/EFFICIENT RAINFALL  
PRODUCING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE  
STATE HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SINCE LATE MORNING.  
STILL EXPECT SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING,  
PROMOTED BY THE REMNANTS OF TS BARRY, WITH SOME ACTIVITY POSSIBLE  
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS.  
 
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON  
WEDNESDAY, AND ALONG WITH SMALL SCALE BOUNDARIES, WIDELY SCATTERED  
WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE PROMOTED. ALSO, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL  
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA  
DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL RECENT CONDITIONS,  
AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS, WILL ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY  
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA  
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED TERM, WHILE AT THE SURFACE A  
WARM AND MOIST FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA  
FROM THE GULF. AS A RESULT, EXCESSIVELY HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL  
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY.  
UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, EXCESSIVE HEAT  
ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.  
 
BY MONDAY, THINGS START TO CHANGE, AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE WEST,  
AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES NORTHERLY. THIS SHOULD  
ALLOW A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE AREA IN THE MONDAY TO  
MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME (OR PERHAPS A BIT LATER DEPENDING UPON MODEL  
TIMING ISSUES), WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE  
80'S STATEWIDE ON TUESDAY, ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER DEWPOINTS. THIS  
WILL ALSO BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST, PRIMARILY FOR  
MONDAY-TUESDAY.
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BATESVILLE AR 72 94 74 94 / 50 20 10 0  
CAMDEN AR 76 94 76 94 / 40 10 0 0  
HARRISON AR 72 94 73 92 / 20 10 10 0  
HOT SPRINGS AR 75 92 75 92 / 40 10 0 0  
LITTLE ROCK AR 74 93 76 94 / 40 20 10 0  
MONTICELLO AR 76 92 76 93 / 50 20 10 10  
MOUNT IDA AR 75 92 74 92 / 30 10 0 0  
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 72 94 72 93 / 20 20 10 0  
NEWPORT AR 73 93 75 93 / 50 30 20 10  
PINE BLUFF AR 75 92 75 93 / 50 20 10 10  
RUSSELLVILLE AR 75 95 75 94 / 20 10 10 0  
SEARCY AR 73 94 74 94 / 50 20 10 10  
STUTTGART AR 75 92 75 93 / 60 30 10 10  

 
   
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-  
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-  
JOHNSON-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-NEWTON-PERRY-POPE-  
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-RANDOLPH-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN  
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.  
 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-  
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-  
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-  
MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-WHITE-  
WOODRUFF.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...53  
 
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