044
FXUS64 KLZK 181119
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
619 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
-SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ON TUESDAY.
-DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
-SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING AS 06Z OBSERVATIONS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S F AND TD VALUES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F. THIS
HUMID AIRMASS WILL LINGER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SFC
RIDING REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND H500 LONGWAVE TROUGHING
PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL PROVIDE STEADY SW FLOW
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
FOR TODAY, A SMALL PIECE OF ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE STATE ALOFT
AND COULD PROVIDE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED, BUT SOME EARLY MORNING CAMS SHOW A FLOURISH OF ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BETWEEN 12-18Z. OTHERWISE,
NOT MUCH CONCERN FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER TODAY.
THAT WON'T BE THE CASE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WHERE
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT
SITUATED FROM THE OK/TX PANHANDLES NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS STORMS MERGE OVERNIGHT THEY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE STATE AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES SIMILAR PROGRESS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ARKANSAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY IN A WEAKENED STATE.
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THERE COULD
BE SOME REINVIGERATION OF THIS ACTIVITY. THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW WIDESPREAD THE EARLY MORNING
ACTIVITY LASTS AND HOW FAR IT PROGRESSES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE
INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE
THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SHEAR VALUES REMAIN LIMITED DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RELAX A BIT BY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE STATE AS THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SW AND DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG IT. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEARLY DAILY CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
LOCKED IN THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES
ACROSS THE STATE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE. BUT, GIVEN THE RECENT SHORT AND LONG
TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA, FFG VALUES REMAIN
SUBSTANTIAL. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY MAJOR FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS FOR
THE TIME BEING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE PRESENT AT MOST SITES, LIT AND ADF ARE EXPECTED TO
DEGRADE FROM VFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT CAMS
CONTINUED TO FAVOR NW/NC AR FOR A CLUSTER OF T'STORMS DEVELOPING
AROUND 16Z OR SO. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS WITH TEMPO TS GROUP FOR BPK
TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. WINDS REMAIN SRTHLY AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 87 73 86 65 / 40 20 60 80
CAMDEN AR 89 72 90 67 / 10 20 60 60
HARRISON AR 85 71 83 60 / 30 10 80 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 87 73 85 66 / 10 40 70 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 88 71 87 66 / 20 30 60 80
MONTICELLO AR 88 73 89 68 / 10 30 50 70
MOUNT IDA AR 86 74 83 67 / 20 40 70 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 85 71 83 61 / 40 10 90 90
NEWPORT AR 89 72 89 66 / 30 20 60 80
PINE BLUFF AR 89 73 89 68 / 20 20 50 60
RUSSELLVILLE AR 87 72 84 66 / 40 30 90 80
SEARCY AR 87 70 87 64 / 30 20 60 70
STUTTGART AR 89 73 89 68 / 10 20 60 70
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...78
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