313
FXUS64 KLZK 142325
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- BREEZY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN INTO THE WEEKEND
- TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP MARKEDLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS AR ON THIS THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S. DEW PT TEMPS WERE FALLING IN
WAKE OF WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE FROM THE MID
40S N TO THE LOWER 60S S. TODAY, A FEW SHOWERS/RUMBLES OF THUNDER
ARE POSSIBLE OVER NRN AR THROUGH LATE MORNING, HOWEVER POPS WILL
STAY IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY. ELSEWHERE, CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN FROM
TIME TO TIME.
SYNOPTICALLY, NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION BETWEEN AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND SUBTLE TROUGH ALONG THE E
COAST. COMPACT UPPER RIDGING WILL ADVANCE EWRD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY
TODAY. THIS PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND.
PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. BEST
COVERAGE WOULD BE OVER NW HALF TO NRN HALF OF THE STATE. INCREASING
PGF SHOULD ENCOURAGE BREEZY CONDS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS CORRELATED WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL, POPS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE SPARSE WITH NO APPRECIABLE QPF EXPECTED.
BETTER POP CHANCES RETURN ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SHIFT FROM QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN TO MORE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT WILL RESULT FROM A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
EJECT OUT OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROVIDING LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. ALOFT, THE
TROUGH OUT W SHOULD EJECT INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS. OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS, LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT THE FRONT COULD STALL OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS (SHORT OF
REACHING AR). THIS HAS BEEN A COMMON THEME WITH SYSTEMS REMAINING
A BIT TO OUR W WITH BULK OF PRECIP ALSO PASSING TO OUR W. DESPITE
SHIFTS IN MODEL DATA, QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR GREATEST BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S
FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. THE WARMEST
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHERE HIGHS MAY
TOP NEAR 90 DEGREES OR INTO THE LOWER 90S IN PLACES WITH LOWS ONLY
FALLING IN THE LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 58 87 73 86 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 63 91 70 87 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 62 87 71 86 / 0 10 20 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 62 89 72 86 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 61 90 72 87 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 62 91 72 86 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 64 87 72 85 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 60 87 70 87 / 0 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 60 89 72 88 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 61 91 72 87 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 61 89 71 88 / 0 0 10 0
SEARCY AR 57 89 70 87 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 62 90 73 87 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...73
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