170
FXUS64 KLZK 101724
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1124 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
-LIGHT RAIN TO ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.
-BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
-A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
-WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND,
HELPING ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE STATE, BUT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, BRINGING SOME
RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH IT. ACCOMPANYING THE SFC
FRONTAL PASSAGE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE H500 FLOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE, THIS WILL PROVIDE LITTLE
INFLUENCE IN TERMS OF ADDITIONAL QPF WITH THESE FEATURES. OVERALL,
PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH, WITH THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN AR.
BEHIND THE FRONT, SFC RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TOWARD THE STATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE BUILDING EAST TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALOFT, H500 FLOW WILL TURN OUT
OF THE NW FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THIS WILL PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME, WHILE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY QUICKLY.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE ONCE AGAIN. A
LATE WEEK H500 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY TOWARD THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
BY SUNDAY MORNING. A CORRESPONDING SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW THIS
FEATURE THROUGH ITS DURATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. AS THESE
FEATURES APPROACH ARKANSAS, MID AND SFC LEVEL S/SW FLOW WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE
SUPPLIED TO THE STATE. SOME ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF PW
VALUES IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE STATE WHICH IS UNUSUALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED WITH MEAN TOTALS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. SOME
OF THE HIGHER END PROBS, INDICATES "REASONABLE WORST-CASE" AMOUNTS
IN THE 3-4.5 INCH RANGE. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A LOW END
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD THREAT, BUT GIVEN SHORT AND LONG TERM RAINFALL
DEFICITS ACROSS THE STATE, MUCH OF THIS RAINFALL WOULD BE
CONSIDERED BENEFICIAL TOWARD CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
OVERALL CONCERN FOR A CORRESPONDING SEVERE THREAT REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THE STATE, BUT JUST TO THE SOUTH THERE COULD
BE A THREAT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A COUPLE
OF LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE LOW INSTABILITY AND TIME OF DAY.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNAL FOR TD VALUES IN EXCESS OF 60 F
CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN AR, BUT THAT REMAINS MORE LIKELY ACROSS
AREAS TO THE S/SE OF THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY NOTEWORTHY
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ALONG WITH ANY OTHER TIMING/PLACEMENT
CHANGES THAT COULD ALTER OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
THERE WON'T BE MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH IFR
CONDITIONS NOT BEING RULED OUT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE STATE LATER TODAY. LOW CIGS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH VCSH HAS BEEN WRITTEN INTO
TAFS TO EXPRESS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH SHOWER COVERAGE.
IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 73 43 59 35 / 40 70 0 0
CAMDEN AR 75 51 65 41 / 20 50 20 0
HARRISON AR 75 38 58 37 / 20 20 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 73 48 63 38 / 40 70 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 73 48 59 36 / 50 80 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 75 52 64 41 / 20 60 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 73 48 64 38 / 40 70 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 75 38 59 35 / 20 30 0 0
NEWPORT AR 72 44 56 35 / 40 80 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 75 48 60 36 / 30 80 20 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 75 46 63 38 / 50 70 0 0
SEARCY AR 73 44 59 33 / 50 80 0 0
STUTTGART AR 73 48 57 37 / 40 90 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...73
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