416
FXUS64 KLZK 200529
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1229 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK, AND POSSIBLY LONGER.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY, HIGHER CHANCE
ON FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING WITH A
FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE CURRENTLY ARE IN
THE 50S WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S OVER A LARGE PART OF THE STATE WITH UPPER 40S OVER FAR PARTS
OF EAST ARKANSAS.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
NATURAL STATE. LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
OFF TO THE EAST TO THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US BY TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE STATE, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH,
THEN SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING WARM UP NORTH INTO
THE STATE ALONG WITH SUBTLE MOISTURE RETURN REFLECTED IN GRADUALLY
INCREASING DEW POINTS.
ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO GET ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AT
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SATELLITE LATE THIS
EVENING SHOWS A RATHER AMPLIFIED TROUGH JUST OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH WILL
MOVES ASHORE ON MONDAY MORNING, THEN EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSIVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
THURSDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
PARENT TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
FRIDAY, ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL KEEP THE COLD FRONT JUST
WEST OF THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND,
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE IT MAY FINALLY PUSH THROUGH
THE STATE.
THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, OF WHICH A FEW COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE TO THE
STATE AND NOT FAVORING AN AGGRESSIVE FRONTAL PUSH. ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITIONAL TO THE SEVERE WEATHER, IF MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL DO OCCUR, THEN THERE WOULD BE A THREAT OF AT
LEAST LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WITHIN AREAS THAT RECEIVED MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING EAST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS. LATEST HREF/BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE STATE ONLY
SHOWS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE STATE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE STATE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST OF
THE AREA LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARLY OUT OF THE S/SW WITH
SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 78 52 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 80 48 80 55 / 0 0 10 20
HARRISON AR 78 50 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 78 49 79 54 / 0 0 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 80 52 81 56 / 0 0 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 81 52 82 57 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 78 49 77 53 / 0 0 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 79 49 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 78 52 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 80 50 82 56 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 80 49 80 54 / 0 0 10 10
SEARCY AR 79 48 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 79 52 82 57 / 0 0 0 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...76
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