136
FXUS64 KLZK 031733
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1133 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT;
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, MAINLY W AND NW AR
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND DUMPING A COUPLE TO SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED ACROSS THE STATE EARLY
THIS TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S N OF THE FRONT,
TO THE MID 50S S OF THE FRONT. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER NRN AR BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO AREAS THAT PICKED UP MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
ON MONDAY.
TODAY, BREEZY SRLY WINDS COMBINED WITH A RETREATING WARM FRONT AND
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15 MPH TO 25 MPH.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS THIS SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARDS THE STATE. THESE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE INTO WRN AR.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDES W, NW, AND N AR.
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO AS THE ENTIRE STATE
RESIDES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE
THE LOWER THREAT TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES FAVOR UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WITH HEIGHT, FAVORING A SQUALL
LINE/QLCS STORM MODE. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE OVER PORTIONS
OF W, NW, AND N AR. AT THIS TIME, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS
ARE HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BEST
ESTIMATED TIMING APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD, A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON THURSDAY WITH THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE IN
PLACE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SWRLY UPPER FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
SETUP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BETWEEN ALL THESE FEATURES. SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW BRINGING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND STALL ACROSS AR ON SATURDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO FALL
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SATURDAY NIGHT, INTO SUNDAY. A BRIEF LULL
IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS COMPACT SUBTLE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
BEYOND MONDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES ON SHORE ACROSS NRN
MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE ACTIVE SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS.
WITH MULTIPLE DAYS AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO ADD
UP TO A COUPLE TO SEVERAL INCHES WHEN ALL SET AND DONE.
PROBABILISTICALLY, THE NW 2/3 OF THE STATE RANGES FROM 40-80% FOR
GREATER THAN 2" AND 10-30% FOR GREATER THAN 4" OF TOTAL RAINFALL.
THESE RANGES AND PROBABILITIES GIVES INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 2-4" WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
W AND NW AR. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN VERY DRY OF LATE SO THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS ON THE LOWER SIDE HOWEVER TRAINING OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND RESULTANT HIGH RAINFALL RATES COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING, WITH THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. WINDS
REMAINING OUT OF THE S-SSW DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS 20-25 MPH. THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
TERMINALS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE AT LEAST MVFR CEILING
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. FOR THE NORTHERN ARKANSAS TERMINALS, MVFR CEILINGS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING CONVECTION FROM THE WEST MAY DEVELOP
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 79 60 77 61 / 0 20 40 70
CAMDEN AR 79 60 81 62 / 0 0 20 30
HARRISON AR 78 60 73 57 / 10 60 90 100
HOT SPRINGS AR 77 60 77 62 / 0 10 30 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 80 61 79 64 / 0 10 20 60
MONTICELLO AR 80 63 81 64 / 0 0 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 77 61 77 61 / 10 20 40 80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 78 59 74 57 / 10 50 80 90
NEWPORT AR 76 61 78 64 / 0 20 40 70
PINE BLUFF AR 79 61 80 64 / 0 0 10 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 79 60 78 61 / 10 30 60 90
SEARCY AR 80 58 79 61 / 0 10 30 60
STUTTGART AR 78 62 79 64 / 0 10 20 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...77
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