965
FXUS64 KLZK 042349
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
649 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
-CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY
-MORE LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL FRIDAY
-CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
-OVERALL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE SEEN
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
SRLY SFC FLOW WILL RETURN THIS THU AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...AND
WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS NORTH OVER WRN AR INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HRS...WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SHRA/TSRA OVER WRN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION MAY BE SEEN AS FAR EAST AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AR.
CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO DECREASE BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH THE UPPER WAVE MOVING
EAST OF AR. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK MUCH LOWER ON FRI WITH A BIT
MORE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE STATE. EVEN SO...SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BE SEEN OVER WRN /NWRN SECTIONS.
CHANCES FOR MORE CONVECTION RETURN FOR SAT...WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED
TO BE MORE SIGNIFICANT. THIS WILL BE RESULT OF AN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTH FROM TX INTO OK...AND WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING NE
OVER AR IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ON SUN...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES...AND WEAK UPPER WAVES PASS OVERHEAD. BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO DECREASE AS UPPER
FLOW BECOME LESS SIGNIFICANT OVER THE REGION. EVEN SO...ENOUGH
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY EXIST TO SEE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEEING ANY ORGANIZED SVR WX AND WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW DUE TO NO MAJOR
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED
STRONG/SVR CONVECTION MAY BE SEEN EACH DAY...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER WRN TERMINALS.
ONCE PRECIP DIMINISHES BETWEEN 00-03Z, MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 11-17Z FRI MORNING OVER MAINLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
ON THURS. THESE AREAS WOULD INCLUDE WRN TERMINALS. CIGS WILL LIFT
ON FRI WITH LOW END POPS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER NW AR FRI AFTERNOON.
WINDS ON FRI SHOULD BE S/SWRLY AT AROUND 5-10 KTS. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 67 85 68 86 / 10 10 0 20
CAMDEN AR 67 87 70 86 / 0 0 10 50
HARRISON AR 66 82 66 82 / 20 20 10 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 68 85 70 85 / 10 10 10 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 68 85 69 85 / 10 0 10 40
MONTICELLO AR 68 87 72 86 / 0 0 0 50
MOUNT IDA AR 68 84 70 83 / 10 10 10 50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 65 82 66 83 / 10 20 10 30
NEWPORT AR 67 86 69 87 / 0 10 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 68 86 71 86 / 0 0 0 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 68 85 70 85 / 10 20 10 50
SEARCY AR 66 86 67 86 / 10 0 0 20
STUTTGART AR 69 86 71 86 / 0 0 0 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70
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