106
FXUS64 KLZK 171658
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1158 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
-WARM AND HUMID CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
-SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
-MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL
-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, MOSTLY CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN ARKANSAS. A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW-END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
ARKANSAS. BY LATE MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
STATE BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH, IT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE STATE ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TO TRACK
THROUGH WITH RAIN CHANCES LIKELY ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE HEAVIEST ON TUESDAY WITH A
WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD
SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON WHERE CONVECTION TRAINS. THE GOOD
NEWS IS WE NEED THE RAIN TO HELP WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS SO
WIDESPREAD FLOOD IS NOT EXPECTED. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD FROM EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. VCTS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ALL SITES BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND ENDING EARLY MONDAY MORNING PRIOR TO SUNRISE. SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ALL SITES IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN RETURN LATER
MONDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 72 87 73 86 / 20 40 20 60
CAMDEN AR 72 88 71 88 / 20 20 30 60
HARRISON AR 71 85 71 83 / 20 30 10 80
HOT SPRINGS AR 72 86 72 85 / 20 20 30 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 87 71 86 / 20 20 30 60
MONTICELLO AR 72 88 72 89 / 20 10 20 30
MOUNT IDA AR 73 85 73 83 / 20 20 30 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 70 86 71 83 / 10 30 10 80
NEWPORT AR 71 89 72 88 / 10 30 20 60
PINE BLUFF AR 72 89 72 89 / 10 10 30 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 71 86 71 84 / 40 40 30 70
SEARCY AR 69 88 70 87 / 30 20 30 60
STUTTGART AR 72 89 73 89 / 20 10 30 50
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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