365
FXUS64 KLZK 242306 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
506 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
-GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL YIELD
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST,
NORTHWEST, AND NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
-ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
-RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT UNIMPACTFUL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
-DRY AND SETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
SOME RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
RECENT NIGHTTIME SAT IMGRY DEPICTED HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING SEWRD ACRS
THE STATE, ASCTD W/ STRONG NWRLY H500 FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT
THE SFC, BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED OVER THE SRN CNTRL
US AND MID-SOUTH VCTY.
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS, SFC LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE
OK/TX PANHANDLE, RESULTING IN A STEEPENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU. STRONG SWRLY SFC FLOW IS FORECAST, W/ PT
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MODERATE BL MIXING AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TUES AFTN ACRS NWRN TO NRN AR. CURRENT FCST WINDS AND GUSTS
REFLECT A BLENDED SOLUTION TOWARDS 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES, AND
CORRESPONDINGLY 10TH PERCENTILE SFC DEWPOINT VALUES. AS SUCH, STRONG
AFTN MIXING SHOULD YIELD MIN RH VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT OR LESS, AND
WHEN COUPLED W/ 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURES NEAR OR LESS THAN 10 PERCENT,
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WL ARISE OVER PORTIONS OF WRN, NWRN, AND N
CNTRL AR TUES AFTN.
THRU TUES NIGHT AND INTO WED, MOISTURE RETURN WL RESUME UNDER
PERSISTENT SWRLY FLOW. SOME CHC POPS APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF ERN AR OVERNIGHT WED AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE NAVIGATES THRU
MEAN NWRLY H500 FLOW, THOUGH CURRENT QPF PROGS ARE NOT VERY
OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
UNDER MEAN SWRLY SFC FLOW, TEMPS THRU THE WEEK WL BE MODERATING
TOWARDS DAILY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES, E.G., +10-15F TEMP DEPARTURES AT
MOST LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, THRU THE END OF THE WEEK, ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEPICT AN OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION FOR RAINFALL CHANCES
OVER THE FA. MEAN NWRLY H500 FLOW IS EXPECTED, ALONG W/ A STRONG SFC
HIGH MOVING EWRD ACRS THE NRN TIER AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS SFC HIGH, A CDFRNT IS PROGGED TO
WASH OUT OVER THE NATURAL STATE ON SUN.
SEVERAL UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN W/ THE LONG TERM PATTERN, PARTICULARLY
CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FRNT, AS IS SHOWN THROUGH ENSEMBLE
MEAN IQRS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR 15-20F INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WL ALSO HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON POPS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE NRN HALF OF AR, WHICH FOR NOW, ARE
UNIMPACTFUL, W/ HIGHER QPF TOTALS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SRN MO.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 504 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
BREEZY SRLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. CIGS WILL DROP BY
AROUND SUNRISE AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE INTO WED AFTERNOON.
SOME IMPROVEMENTS MAY BE SEEN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 45 69 48 63 / 0 10 10 50
CAMDEN AR 48 76 57 75 / 0 10 10 40
HARRISON AR 45 71 47 64 / 0 0 10 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 48 73 53 73 / 0 10 10 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 48 72 53 69 / 0 10 10 50
MONTICELLO AR 49 75 59 73 / 0 10 10 60
MOUNT IDA AR 48 74 52 74 / 0 10 10 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 42 69 45 63 / 0 0 10 40
NEWPORT AR 45 65 51 63 / 0 10 20 50
PINE BLUFF AR 48 74 56 72 / 0 10 10 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 45 72 49 69 / 0 10 10 30
SEARCY AR 43 70 49 66 / 0 10 10 50
STUTTGART AR 47 69 55 69 / 0 10 10 60
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...62
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