328
FXUS64 KLZK 112257
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
457 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT WEEK
- A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ELEVATING LOCAL WILDFIRE DANGER
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADARS WERE QUIET ACROSS AR EARLY THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT OVER PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL
AND NE AR WHERE A SUBTLE COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN
MO, WAS SURROUNDED BY LOW/MID LEVEL STRATUS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
DROP SWRD THROUGH THE STATE THIS MORNING BRINGING BRIEF ELEVATED
WINDS, FOLLOWED BY VERY DRY AIRMASS, PLUS COLDER ANTICIPATED HIGH
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY, DEW POINT TEMPS WILL DROP BY MID/LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 10% TO MIDDLE 20% OVER THE
OUACHITA AND OZARKS MTNS, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE AR RIVER
VALLEY INTO CNTRL AR. WRLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE N THIS MORNING
AT OR AROUND 5-10 KTS GUSTING UPWARDS OF 15-20KTS, THEN EXPECTING
WIND GUSTS TO RELAX A BIT HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE STATE. 10 HOUR DEAD FUELS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10% AVERAGING 10%-15%. GIVEN THIS, THERE WILL
BE SOME COMPONENT OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY. HIGH
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO A NWRLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE
CNTRL CONUS TODAY THROUGH PRETTY MUCH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
A CLOSED LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO WRN MEXICO ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD
TRACK EWRD THROUGH TX ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL
LOBE OF ENERGY WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE
MID-MS VALLEY REGIONS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS UPPER TROUGH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER TX SHOULD TRIGGER
CONVECTION JUST TO THE S AND E OF AR AS A SURFACE FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE AREA. ACROSS AR, AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT
AT THIS TIME RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. LATE IN THE PERIOD, AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OR COMPACT UPPER TROUGH MAY DROP OUT OF CANADA
WHICH COULD BRING PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO AR AROUND THE SATURDAY
TIME FRAME ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME. TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE SUBTLE WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY COOLING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 457 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD BETWEEN
SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER
MONDAY MORNING AND REMAINING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 29 56 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 27 55 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 29 59 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 28 56 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 29 55 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 30 54 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 29 59 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 27 60 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 28 54 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 28 54 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 28 59 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 25 56 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 29 52 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...74
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