096
FXUS64 KLZK 171120
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
620 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
-WARM AND HUMID CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
-SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
-MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL
-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, MOSTLY CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN ARKANSAS. A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW-END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
ARKANSAS. BY LATE MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
STATE BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH, IT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE STATE ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TO TRACK
THROUGH WITH RAIN CHANCES LIKELY ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE HEAVIEST ON TUESDAY WITH A
WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD
SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON WHERE CONVECTION TRAINS. THE GOOD
NEWS IS WE NEED THE RAIN TO HELP WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS SO
WIDESPREAD FLOOD IS NOT EXPECTED. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
SATELLITE OBS SHOW LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO OVERSPREAD AREA. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MVFR AS LOW CLOUD DECK OVERSPREADS FORECAST
AREA. RECENT ENSEMBLE RUNS HAVE FAVORED SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE, HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH AT MOST SITES TO ACCOUNT
FOR SCATTERED NATURE OF SHOWERS. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE AFTER 0Z AND CIGS SHOULD RAISE BACK TO ABOVE VFR
CONDTIONS AREA WIDE AROUND THE SAME TIME. LLWS WILL BUILD BACK IN
OVERNIGHT CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 88 72 87 73 / 10 20 20 20
CAMDEN AR 88 72 88 71 / 20 20 10 30
HARRISON AR 86 71 85 71 / 10 20 30 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 86 72 86 72 / 20 30 30 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 88 71 87 71 / 20 20 10 30
MONTICELLO AR 88 72 88 72 / 30 20 10 20
MOUNT IDA AR 84 73 85 73 / 20 30 40 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 86 70 86 71 / 10 20 30 10
NEWPORT AR 90 71 89 72 / 10 10 20 20
PINE BLUFF AR 89 72 89 72 / 20 20 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 86 71 86 71 / 20 30 50 30
SEARCY AR 88 69 88 70 / 10 20 20 30
STUTTGART AR 89 72 89 73 / 20 20 20 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...78
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