538
FXUS64 KLZK 142308 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
608 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021
AVIATION
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN SITES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, AS PRECIP SHIELD FROM PLAINS SYSTEM PASSES JUST NORTH OF
ARKANSAS.
NOTE TO USERS OF THE HRO AND BPK TERMINALS...
THERE CONTINUE TO BE COMMUNICATIONS ISSUES AT BOTH LOCATIONS
PREVENTING METARS FROM BEING TRANSMITTED LONGLINE. TECHNICIANS
FROM THE NWS AND FAA ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE ISSUES, BUT AT
THIS TIME, WE DON'T KNOW HOW SOON THEY WILL BE FIXED. AS SUCH, FOR
THE TIME BEING...AT LEAST THIS SET OF TAFS, THERE WILL BE NO
AMENDMENTS AT EITHER LOCATION.
PREV DISCUSSION
(ISSUED 258 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021)
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITH AN
UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH AND EAST SATURDAY AND WILL PASS THROUGH
ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING A TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST, A WARM FRONT WILL CLIP NORTH
ARKANSAS THIS EVENING BEGINNING A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED DEW POINTS AND RAIN
CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
FURTHER NORTHEAST AND WEST SUNDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S TO LOWER 80S, AND IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
LONG TERM MODEL RUNS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THAT FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD, WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ENE AROUND A RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL HAVE PROVIDED PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN THE REGION, PROVIDING WAA AND INCREASED MOISTURE. THIS FLOW
WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DEVELOPING LOW TO
OUR WEST. LONG TERM DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR
FORECAST PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO COME IN ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
90TH PERCENTILE FROM EARLY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. DUE
TO THE BLOCKING HIGH OUT EAST, THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ONE TO THREE INCHES OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE STATE, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERNMOST PORTIONS, THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE UPPER LOW OUT WEST WILL
HAVE MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT (WITH
AGREEMENT BETWEEN ALL LONG TERM MODELS AND CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS), DURING WHICH TIME FORECAST PWAT VALUES WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST. THIS HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AR, AND AN ADDITIONAL
HALF TO ONE INCH ELSEWEHERE IN THE STATE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL, BUT THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO
BE FLOODING, DUE TO PERSISTENT RAINFALL, FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SEVEN DAY FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM THREE TO SIX
INCHES OVER THE WSW, AND ONE TO THREE INCHES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
STATE.
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...57
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page