779
FXUS64 KLZK 250742
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
142 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 104 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
-ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
-RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT UNIMPACTFUL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
-DRY AND SETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
RECENT OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS DEPICTED A SFC LOW MOVING EWRD ACRS
THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION, W/ BROAD SWRLY SFC FLOW OVER THE
NATURAL STATE. EXPECT A WARMING DAY ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN W/ INCRSG
CLOUD COVER BY THIS AFTN. INCRSG RAIN CHANCES WL BE NOTED OVER THE
ERN HALF OF THE STATE BY WED EVNG INVOF AN ADVANCING WEAK WRM
FRNT, AND IN CONJUNCTION W/ A PASSING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AMIDST
MEAN NWRLY H500 FLOW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN MEAGER W/ POPS
TONIGHT THOUGH, W/ AREA TOTALS ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR
PORTIONS OF ERN TO SERN AR THROUGH THURSDAY.
THRU THE WEEKEND, MEAN SWRLY SFC FLOW WL KEEP TEMPS MODERATING
TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL VALUES, E.G., +10-15F TEMP DEPARTURES AT
MOST LOCATIONS, W/ MOSTLY DRY CONDNS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEKEND, H500 FLOW IS PROGGED TO DE-AMPLIFY AND
TREND TOWARDS A MORE ZONAL CONUS PATTERN, ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG
CANADIAN SFC HIGH MOVING ACRS THE NRN TIER AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
MOST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REMAINS STEADFAST ON A CDFRNT ALONG
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS SFC HIGH SURGING SWRD TOWARDS THE SRN
CNTRL US BY SUN EVNG.
AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL H500 FLOW WL ALSO YIELD LEE SFC CYCLONIC
FLOW, W/ SFC TROUGHING EXTENDING NEWRD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU,
RESULTING IN A QUASI-STATIONARY FRNT OVER NRN AR AND SRN MO. THIS
FEATURE WL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE REGION, W/
THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE CURRENTLY MOST FAVORED FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL THRU THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED
STATIONARY FRNT IS EXPECTED TO STAY ROOTED OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SEMI- CUTOFF SWRN US UPPER LOW.
DISCREPANCIES STILL REMAIN PERTAINING TO TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF
THIS FEATURE, WHICH ALSO TRANSLATES ACCORDINGLY TO QPF.
LOOKING AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM AND BEYOND, ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUIDANCE FOR H500 FLOW HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY ADVERTISING A
TRANSITION TOWARDS A WETTER PATTERN FOR THE SRN US AS WE HEAD INTO
MARCH, E.G., MEAN WRN US TROUGHING AND SWRLY FLOW ACRS THE
NATURAL STATE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND
REMAIN UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TERMINALS OF KHOT, KADF, KLIT, KPBF, AND KLLQ WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR
CIGS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS WILL GUSTS AT TIMES IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE SITES OF
KHRO, KLIT, AND KPBF DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHICH HAVE BEEN CAPTURED BY TEMPO GROUPS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 65 46 63 40 / 10 20 30 10
CAMDEN AR 74 56 76 45 / 0 10 30 20
HARRISON AR 68 46 66 40 / 0 10 20 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 70 52 72 43 / 10 20 30 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 67 51 67 43 / 10 20 40 10
MONTICELLO AR 72 57 75 46 / 10 10 50 30
MOUNT IDA AR 71 50 73 43 / 10 10 20 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 66 44 64 38 / 0 10 20 0
NEWPORT AR 63 49 62 41 / 10 20 40 10
PINE BLUFF AR 70 54 71 43 / 10 20 40 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 69 49 70 41 / 10 10 20 10
SEARCY AR 65 47 64 39 / 10 20 40 10
STUTTGART AR 65 54 66 43 / 10 20 40 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...74
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