382
FXUS64 KLZK 191116
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
616 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
-DANGEROUS TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAT SAFETY
PRACTICES WILL BE A MUST OVER THIS PERIOD
-A COLD FRONT (RATHER COOL FRONT) WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A COUPLE
DAYS OF RELIEF FROM OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS
-THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN BEGINS TO RE-AMPLIFY OVER THE STATE
INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TOWARDS OPPRESSIVE
HEAT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SUNDAY (TODAY) THROUGH TUESDAY:
THE COMBINATION OF MAXIMUM MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE COUPLED WITH HIGH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CREATE OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS.
DIURNAL HEATING WILL EASILY PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S, WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT ENTERING THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AND
BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY
WHERE LATEST GUIDANCE IS POSITIONING DETERMINISTIC VALUES OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 100 AND 103+ DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE.
PROBABILISTIC VALUES OR CHANCES OF TRIPLE DIGIT OR GREATER HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN PRESENT STATEWIDE FOR MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ONLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITA,
BOSTON, AND OZARK MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL BE SPARED FROM WIDESPREAD
OPPRESSIVE HEAT, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS,
REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S DESPITE THE HIGHER ELEVATION. HEAT
PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN EFFECT ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE OVER
THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHERE LOCATIONS OF THE STATE WILL
LIKELY REACH EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. THE PLACEMENT OF
ARKANSAS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY UNDERNEATH THE EXPANSIVE UPPER-LVL
RIDGE WILL KEEP LOWER END POP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST; HOWEVER, ANY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED AND ONLY A BRIEF
REPRIEVE FROM THE DANGEROUS HEAT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY:
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE OF ARKANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH WHETHER OR NOT THIS MESOSCALE FEATURE
WILL PRESENT A CHANCE OF INCREASED POPS, BUT OVERALL CHANCES LOOK
LOW, AND THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY ELEVATED POPS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
BE NOTED OF RETURNING TO VALUES THAT WILL STILL BE CONSIDERED HOT,
BUT NOT NEAR THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT EXPECTED BETWEEN TODAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE DANGEROUSLY HOT FROM
ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND LOCATIONS SOUTH WITH VALUES TOPPING OUT
IN THE UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE-DIGITS IN A FEW INSTANCES, ESPECIALLY
INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. ON THURSDAY, RELIEF IN THE FORM OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY, DEWPOINTS THAT
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S, AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL
BE NOTED.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION OF THE
CONUS BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BE NOTED. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE OVERALL H500
FLOW PATTERN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OVER ARKANSAS BRINGING A LOW CHANCE
OF POPS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT FOR POPS, BUT A SIGNAL DOES EXIST. THE
UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO RE-AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION AND IN RESPONSE
TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE. A
RETURN TO HEAT PRODUCT ISSUANCE FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIKELY AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST OF
THE STATE AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE
LOW 70S WHICH WILL EQUATE TO ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES AND
OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS OVERALL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD OF SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A FEW AREAS OF
VCSH OR VCTS MAY NEAR THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING, BUT WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY ISOLATED THAT
THEY ARE JUST WORTH A MENTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 97 77 97 77 / 20 20 30 0
CAMDEN AR 98 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 93 75 95 76 / 20 10 20 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 97 77 98 78 / 0 10 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 98 78 98 80 / 0 10 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 99 77 98 78 / 10 0 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 95 76 96 77 / 10 10 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 93 75 94 75 / 30 20 10 0
NEWPORT AR 97 77 98 78 / 20 20 20 0
PINE BLUFF AR 97 76 97 76 / 0 10 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 97 77 98 78 / 10 10 10 0
SEARCY AR 97 76 98 77 / 10 10 20 0
STUTTGART AR 97 77 97 78 / 0 10 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ARZ007-008-016-017-024-025-031>034-039-043>047-057-065-121>123-
130-138-230-238.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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