509
FXUS64 KLZK 222336
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
636 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
- SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN ARKANSAS
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT
WEEK
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY, WITH
MORE FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
DAILY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
AN EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVE DOWNSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFIED RIDGING
FEATURE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS ALLOWING FOR SOME LARGER COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS, WITH HINTS OF SOME THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE.
ANY OF THESE SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO ONE
QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS, BUT NOT MUCH WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED EVEN IN THESE FAVORABLE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AS HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE STATE.
A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, AS A PACIFIC TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THEN
AMPLIFIES GOING INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THIS QUIETER PERIOD OF WEATHER TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE
EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT RAMPS UP
TOMORROW, MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE STATE. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS, WHICH WILL IMPROVE THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES LATE THIS WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MULTIPLE WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
THAT'LL BE CENTERED ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER, ANYWHERE FROM
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS, THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE DAYS
WITH SOME LEVEL OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION AND
VICINITY DURING THIS PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION.
THE FIRST ROUND LOOKS TO BE IN THE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE. LIMITED
SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ANTICIPATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
WITH INCREASING THREAT THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY.
POST-FRONT, THE PATTERN EVOLUTION BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS TO HOW
FAVORABLE THE ENVIRONMENT MAY CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE REGION
GOING INTO AND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND AS WEAKER
ZONAL FLOW SEEMS TO BE FAVORED. A MORE ROBUST JET PUSHING EAST OF
THE ROCKIES SEEMS TO BE THE CONSENSUS BY SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD
PRESENT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
AFTER THE ACTIVITY ON MONDAY, A PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER SEEMS TO
BE FAVORED AMONGST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ~09Z THURS MORNING. AFTERWARDS,
MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE (STRATUS) FROM W/SW AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. ON THURS, BREEZY S WINDS BETWEEN 15-25KTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH CIGS HEIGHTS INCREASING. VFR CONDS SHOULD RETURN BY MIDDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 58 81 66 77 / 0 20 30 90
CAMDEN AR 58 82 65 81 / 10 20 10 50
HARRISON AR 57 78 64 76 / 0 20 60 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 58 79 65 76 / 10 20 30 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 58 82 66 78 / 10 20 20 80
MONTICELLO AR 60 83 66 83 / 10 20 0 50
MOUNT IDA AR 58 79 64 76 / 10 20 40 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 56 79 63 76 / 0 20 50 90
NEWPORT AR 58 83 67 77 / 0 20 20 90
PINE BLUFF AR 58 83 65 81 / 10 20 10 70
RUSSELLVILLE AR 58 81 65 77 / 0 20 40 90
SEARCY AR 55 82 64 78 / 0 20 20 90
STUTTGART AR 60 83 67 80 / 10 20 10 80
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70
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