915
FXUS64 KLZK 270519 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1119 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
-DRY WEATHER, AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
-NEAR DAILY HIGH RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
-RAIN CHANCES RETURN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THROUGH
HIGHER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON RAINFALL TOTALS FOR NORTHERN HALF
OF ARKANSAS
-INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER
THE FORECAST AREA HEADING INTO MARCH
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
RECENT MESOANALYSIS DEPICTED A STATIONARY FRNT DRAPED ACRS NRN
AR, W/ PASSING WEAK PRECIP ON COMPOSITE RADAR IMGRY. EXPECT A
SIMILAR DAY ACRS THE FA W/ COOLER TEMPS OVER NRN AR AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRNT SHOULD DRIFT SWRD THRU THE DAY. WARMER TEMPS
INTO THE MID 70S ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR SRN AR. SOME LOW CHC POPS
ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR SRN TO SERN AR, IN CONJUNCTION W/ A PASSING
EMBEDDED H500 SHORTWAVE. ASCTD HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND WARMER SFC
TEMPS / MODEST MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME DEEPER ISOLATED
CONVECTION THIS EVNG, THOUGH THE GREATER THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS IS EXPECTED FURTHER SE OVER THE ARKLAMISS.
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK, DAILY HIGH TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MODERATE UPWARDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-SOUTH.
THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SAT, W/ AREA READINGS CLIMBING TO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS, AND SEVERAL AREAS NEARING
DAILY RECORD HIGHS.
THE MAIN FOCUS AS WE TURNOVER TO MARCH AND THE NEW WORK WEEK WL BE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARDS MORE UNSETTLED AND
WETTER WEATHER. THAT BEING SAID, THERE ARE STILL MODEST
UNCERTAINTIES PERTAINING TO PRECIP POTENTIAL AND ASCTD TEMPERATURES
THRU THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE
EVOLUTION OF A SFC CDFRNT EXPECTED TO MOVE SWRD TOWARDS THE OZARK
PLATEAU ON SUN. LATEST NBM IQR'S FOR DAILY HIGH TEMPS IS STILL
EXHIBITING SPREADS OF 15-20F FM SUN THRU WED ACRS THE FA, AS CAN BE
INFERRED BY DIFFERING SOLNS OF DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE.
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRNT MANAGES TO MOVE,
GENERALLY COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER POPS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORED OVER
THE NRN HALF OF AR THRU THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT NBM MEAN QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE, AND LESSER AMOUNTS
SWRD, W/ NBM5.0 MEAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTING HIGHER TOTALS OF 1 INCH
POSSIBLE OVER FAR NRN AR B/W SUN TO WED. QPF AMOUNTS WL CONTINUE TO
BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRNT, W/ A MORE
SWRD EXTENT OF THE HIGHER RAINFALL AXIS OVER NRN AR.
BEYOND THE LONG TERM FCST, ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
DEPICT PERSISTENT WRN US H500 TROUGHING, AND MEAN SWRLY FLOW OVER
THE SRN CNTRL US... A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CONVECTION AND HEAVY
PRECIP OVER THE SERN US. LATEST ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF PROGS CORRELATE
WELL TO HIGHER PRECIP POTENTIAL THRU MID-MARCH, W/ 2 WEEK QPF
ANOMALIES OF 4-6 INCHES ACRS THE NATURAL STATE. DETAILS ON RAINFALL
TOTALS AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ARE WELL BEYOND THE CURRENT
SCOPE OF CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER, LONG TERM TRENDS ARE FAVORING A WETTER
PATTERN HEADING INTO MARCH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR CONDNS WERE NOTED ACRS THE FA THURS EVNG, W/ SCTD MID LVL
CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER SERN AR. THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD, EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, W/ SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVER CNTRL
TO SRN TERMINALS, RESULTING IN INTERMITTENT MVFR VISBYS THRU 14Z
FRI MRNG. ANY FOG SHOULD MIX OUT LATER FRI MRNG, W/ VFR CONDNS
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILING THRU THE END OF THE PD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 66 41 71 46 / 20 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 77 48 76 45 / 10 20 0 0
HARRISON AR 70 42 73 49 / 0 0 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 75 46 74 47 / 10 20 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 72 46 72 46 / 20 20 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 76 49 73 47 / 20 20 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 75 44 75 46 / 10 20 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 69 39 73 45 / 0 0 0 10
NEWPORT AR 66 42 70 46 / 10 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 73 46 72 46 / 20 20 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 74 43 74 46 / 20 20 0 0
SEARCY AR 70 41 71 44 / 20 20 0 0
STUTTGART AR 69 46 71 46 / 20 20 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...72
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