790
FXUS64 KLZK 071742
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1142 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
- DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM.
- TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN ON
TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OVER 60 MPH.
- A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
- MUCH COOLER AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL AVERAGES OR POSSIBLY
BELOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
SEVERAL NEW DAILY RECORD HIGHS WERE RECORDED ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD 70 DEGREE PLUS READINGS NOTED. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE QUITE AS WARM TODAY BUT STILL ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE SE QUADRANT OF THE CWA WITH AN ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH
LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE, JUST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM OVERHEAD WITH A TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 50S ACROSS THE CWA.
WEAK RIDGING REMAINS VISIBILITY IS
LESS LIKELY THAN CEILINGS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT A MID
LEVEL UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST, IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST QUICKLY THROUGH TONIGHT,
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT DOES. PATTERN BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE NATION.
SURFACE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE OVER THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND RACE OFF TO THE NE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT, SOUTHERLY FLOW GETS
REESTABLISHED AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DEW
POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE CWA THURSDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING TO OUR
WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF IT POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS VERY LATE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE CWA INCREASE LATE
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE LOW
KICK OUT. THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEEING SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE RISK REMAINS CONDITIONAL AT BEST AS THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE, BUT GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT
BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NW THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NW HALF OF THE CWA DRYING OUT BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MOVING OFF TO THE NE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SECOND
WAVE WILL LIKELY BE OUR BEST CHANCE OF SEEING BENEFICIAL RAIN BUT
THE HIGHEST QPF WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT LOOKS MUCH
MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE SE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET RAMPS UP.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR COMING IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND REMAINING
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AND IN SOME CASES, BELOW IT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNINGS
WITH MONDAY LOOKING THE COLDEST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE STATE BEGINNING TONIGHT
AND ACCELERATING TOMORROW MORNING. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS, AT LEAST A LOW MVFR STRATUS IS LIKELY TO START
BUILDING IN OVER THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE LAMP AND
OTHER MOS GUIDANCE DIDN'T SEEM TO BE DOING A GREAT JOB ON THE
TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS SO WENT AHEAD AND FOLLOWED
THE HREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR CEILINGS FALLING BELOW 2K FEET
FOR THE EXPECTED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THIS LOW STRATUS. FUTURE TAFS
MAY HAVE TO DROP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY LOWER THAN LOW MVFR, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE IFR CONDITIONS MAY ARRIVE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS ARE MORE
LIKELY THAN VISIBILITY TO FALL TO IFR SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
CAVANAUGH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 68 50 69 59 / 0 10 70 70
CAMDEN AR 74 53 72 61 / 0 10 50 70
HARRISON AR 69 51 68 49 / 0 20 80 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 70 52 69 58 / 0 10 70 60
LITTLE ROCK AR 70 52 70 59 / 0 10 60 80
MONTICELLO AR 74 57 75 65 / 0 0 40 70
MOUNT IDA AR 72 53 70 57 / 0 10 80 50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 68 49 68 51 / 0 10 70 40
NEWPORT AR 68 51 70 60 / 0 10 60 90
PINE BLUFF AR 73 53 73 62 / 0 10 50 80
RUSSELLVILLE AR 69 51 70 54 / 0 10 70 50
SEARCY AR 68 49 69 58 / 0 10 60 80
STUTTGART AR 70 53 71 62 / 0 10 50 80
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...66
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