698
FXUS64 KLZK 201038
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
538 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
-HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMID AIR WILL LEAD TO INCREASING HEAT INDEX VALUES
AND HEAT DANGER THAT WILL BE PRESENT INTO THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN
INTO NEXT WEEK.
-LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THAT TREND APPEARS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
-DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE HEATING
OF THE DAY AND DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET OVER SEVERAL DAYS OF THE
FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A H500 RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BE CEMENTED OVER
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INTO THE EARLY WORKWEEK, THE CENTER OF
THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME POSITIONED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION OF
THE CONUS. INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE CENTER OF THE H500
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST AND BECOME
POSITIONED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY BY THE TIME THE FORECAST
PERIOD ENDS INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SFC, A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION OF THE CONUS AND THE CLOCK-WISE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL USHER IN A STEADY-STREAM OF GULF
MOISTURE-RICH AIR VIA SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO AND
ACROSS ARKANSAS.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF HOT AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA AND
STATE OF ARKANSAS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY
POPS THAT WILL BE NOTED OVER THIS PERIOD WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION (AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
BUILDS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET AS
HEATING WANES).
THE STOUT RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (5 TO 8
DEGREES) WITH RESPECT TO BOTH MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES. AN IMPORTANT NOTE WILL BE THE LACK OF OVERNIGHT
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT ACROSS THE STATE AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
FALL INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 70S DEPENDING ON YOUR LOCATION WITHIN THE
STATE. ADDITIONALLY, METRO AREAS, ALONG WITH CITIES AND TOWNS THAT
CONSIST OF A LOT OF CONCRETE (OFTEN REFERRED TO AS THE HEAT ISLAND
EFFECT WILL BE ON DISPLAY) WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S OVERNIGHT.
HEAT INDEX VALUES DURING THE DAY WILL REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS OF THE CWA AND STATE OF ARKANSAS OVER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS IMPORTANT TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY AS WE
TRANSITION FROM A WET AND COOL PATTERN TO ONE THAT IS MUCH MORE HOT
AND DRY OVERALL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY DUE TO PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE AN INTERMITTENT
ISSUE FOR THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THE SITES OF
KHOT, KADF, AND KLLQ WHERE FLIGHT CATEGORY MAY BE DEGRADED TO AS LOW
AS IFR AND LIFR. LATER FRIDAY MORNING, ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. TEMPO GROUPS HAVE OUTLINED THE POSSIBILITY
OF POOR CIGS AND VSBY FOR THE SITES MENTIONED ABOVE. THE TERMINALS
OF KPBF AND KLLQ HAVE BEEN DESIGNATED "AMD NOT SKED" AS THESE TWO
SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS HAVE NOT PRODUCED AN OBSERVATION FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. THIS DISCREPANCY IS BEING INVESTIGATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 94 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 95 75 96 75 / 10 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 91 74 91 73 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 94 75 95 75 / 10 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 95 77 96 76 / 10 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 94 77 96 76 / 20 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 93 75 93 74 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 92 74 93 73 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 95 77 96 76 / 10 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 94 76 96 76 / 20 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 95 75 95 75 / 10 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 95 74 96 74 / 10 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 93 77 95 76 / 10 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ007-008-016-017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-053>057-
062>069-123.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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