964
FXUS64 KLZK 260537
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1237 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
-AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE STATE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK WILL KEEP MESOSCALE OR FEATURES AT
THE SURFACE NEARLY LOCKED IN PLACE
-TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD
COMPARED TO NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
TUESDAY (TODAY)
IN THE UPPER LVLS, AN OMEGA BLOCK BECOMES ESTABLISHED AT H500 WITH
ONE UPPER LVL LOW POSITIONED OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION OF THE
CONUS AND THE OTHER UPPER LVL CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER THE
CANADIAN PROVINCE OF QUEBEC.
AT THE SFC, A SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ATTENDANT STATIONARY FRONT
REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE OF ARKANSAS WITH PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE STATE VIA LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM THE SFC ALL THE WAY UP THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN TO H500.
EXPECT CONTINUED ELEVATED POPS ACROSS THE CWA AND STATE OF ARKANSAS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, THE POSITIONING OF THE OMEGA BLOCK FEATURE MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS AS THE FEATURE REMAINS SOLIDIFIED OVERALL OVER THE
CONUS. THE ONE UPPER LVL CLOSED LOW MEANDERS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION OF THE CONUS AND THE SECOND UPPER LVL
CLOSED LOW REMAINS PLANTED OVER THE CANADIAN PROVINCE OF QUEBEC.
THE UPPER LVL FLOW PATTERN OVER ARKANSAS CONSISTS OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
AT THE SFC, THE SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER RETROGRADES BACK NORTHWEST
NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OR REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS, NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS, NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. OVER THE
DURATION OF THIS PERIOD AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND THEN PROGRESS BACK NEAR THE
ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER AS A STATIONARY FRONT.
EXPECTED A CONTINUED TREND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT IN THE FORECAST
OVER THIS PERIOD.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN AMPLIFIES EXTENDING
FROM THE CONUS WELL INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CANADA. AT THE SFC, A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS ARKANSAS KEEPING RAIN
AND ISOLATED CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS THE CWA AND STATE OF ARKANSAS.
IT IS IMPORTANT THAT WHILE EACH DAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A DELUGE
BY ANY MEANS THAT APPRECIABLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A
SCATTERED TYPE OF PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED AS
SOME PLACES WILL OBSERVE RAIN ON ONE DAY WHILE OTHERS MAY NOT, BUT
THE CHANCE WILL EXIST EITHER WAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN BOTH THE
PATTERN SETUP ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
LATEST GUIDANCE OVER THIS SEVEN DAY PERIOD CONTINUES TO PORTRAY A
PICTURE OF RAIN TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES
STATEWIDE. IN RESPONSE, IT IS UNDERSTANDABLE THAT WHILE RAIN CHANCES
WILL EXIST OVER THE PERIOD THAT MOST DAYS WILL NOT AMOUNT TO A
WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
A LOW CERTAINTY/CONFIDENCE FORECAST EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION DUE
TO OVERNIGHT CONVECTION, OVERNIGHT LOWERING OF
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES, AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAVORED AREAS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY SUSTAIN MOSTLY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS, WHICH MAY IMPINGE ON THE NORTHERN TERMINALS DURING THE
LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. AN AXIS OF HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS HUGGING THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN TERMINALS IS LIKELY
TO RESULT IN SOME MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOPING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS PRIOR TO IMPROVING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
LASTLY, DUE TO THE NATURE OF CONVECTION GIVEN THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CAUSE
UNCERTAINTIES OF ANY TERMINAL RECEIVING ANY IMPACTS. CURRENT
OUTLOOK FAVORS THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN TERMINALS, THUS PROB30 FOR TSRA CONDITIONS WERE
INTRODUCED FOR THESE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 79 64 83 67 / 80 30 30 70
CAMDEN AR 84 66 85 67 / 30 10 80 70
HARRISON AR 77 62 82 65 / 80 20 40 60
HOT SPRINGS AR 81 66 83 68 / 50 10 80 80
LITTLE ROCK AR 81 65 84 68 / 60 20 60 70
MONTICELLO AR 83 68 85 69 / 50 10 80 70
MOUNT IDA AR 80 66 82 68 / 60 10 80 80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 77 62 82 65 / 80 30 30 70
NEWPORT AR 81 66 85 68 / 80 20 20 70
PINE BLUFF AR 82 67 85 69 / 50 10 70 60
RUSSELLVILLE AR 81 65 84 68 / 70 20 70 80
SEARCY AR 80 63 84 66 / 70 30 50 70
STUTTGART AR 81 68 84 70 / 60 30 60 60
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...77
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