128
FXUS64 KLZK 212356
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
656 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
-MOSTLY DRY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS THIS THURSDAY
-CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING
-THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN LOW INTO FRIDAY
-UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE EARLY
THIS THU MORNING...WITH MAINLY NRLY FLOW PERSISTING. THIS NRLY FLOW
WAS ALLOWING FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTH INTO THE
STATE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MOST FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. EVEN
SO...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD STILL BE SEEN THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN SECTIONS WHERE WINDS ARE A BIT
LIGHTER...AND MOISTURE LEVELS HIGHER.
THE NRLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HRS...KEEPING MOST AREAS DRY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
LIFT NE OVER THE STATE THIS EVENING AND INTO FRI...WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTH BY SUNRISE FRI. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE AS THIS WAVE AND FRONT MOVE OVER THE STATE.
INITIALLY...CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER SRN AND WRN SECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS...THEN EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING ANY STRONG/SVR CONVECTION LOOKS TO REMAIN
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO FRI...MAINLY DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT TIMING. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY BE SEEN HOWEVER...WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE CONVECTION FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
FROM THE SW OVER THE REGION...AND UPPER WAVES WILL PASS OVERHEAD
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIP ELEVATED
PRETTY MUCH EVERY DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. CHANCES FOR
SVR WX LOOK UNCERTAIN...AND WILL DEPEND ON DETAILS SPECIFIC TO EACH
DAY REGARDING INSTABILITY AND SHR. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL MAY BE
SEEN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. EVEN SO...SOME AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THAT SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD WITH WORSEN CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE ITNO THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTH. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 64 75 61 82 / 80 80 30 30
CAMDEN AR 63 81 63 85 / 90 70 40 60
HARRISON AR 61 72 58 80 / 70 80 20 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 64 79 62 83 / 100 60 40 50
LITTLE ROCK AR 64 78 63 82 / 60 70 40 40
MONTICELLO AR 65 80 65 84 / 80 80 50 50
MOUNT IDA AR 64 78 62 82 / 90 50 30 50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 61 72 59 81 / 80 80 30 40
NEWPORT AR 64 77 62 83 / 80 80 50 30
PINE BLUFF AR 65 79 64 84 / 70 70 40 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 64 78 61 83 / 60 80 30 40
SEARCY AR 62 77 60 82 / 70 80 40 30
STUTTGART AR 66 79 65 83 / 90 80 50 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...73
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