142
FXUS64 KLZK 121106 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
606 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS (NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE), LOW RH VALUES,
AND GUSTY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.
- ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST TO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY WEDNESDAY
AND THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG A STALLED FRONT.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A PERTURBED H500 FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE CONUS, W/ SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE ERN US, AND HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGHING POSITIONED ACRS THE WRN US AND PAC-NW.
INTERMITTENT RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CNTRL US, AND WL
CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE OZARK PLATEAU
AND NATURAL STATE ON MON. UNDER SWRLY FLOW, CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THE LOCAL SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT,
W/ GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED ACRS MUCH OF THE STATE MON AFTN.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (NEAR OR AT RECORD VALUES), GUSTY WINDS,
AND LOW AFTN RH VALUES WL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER
FOR MUCH OF THE STATE AGAIN ON MON AFTN.
BY TUES, THE AFOREMENTIONED WRN US TROF WL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE
EWRD, W/ INCRSG AGREEMENT AMONGST GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLNS THAT
THE BASAL REGION OF THIS TROF WL BECOME SEMI-CUTOFF OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION, AND DETACH FM THE BACKGROUND POLAR JET. THIS WL
AMPLIFY A FETCH OF SWRLY H500 FLOW OVER THE SRN GREAT PLAINS,
TRIGGERING RAMPANT POLEWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CURRENT BASE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A PLUME OF 65-70F DEWPOINTS EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE
STATE BY TUES AFTN TO EVNG.
WED THRU FRI, THERE IS INCRSG CONSENSUS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SEMI-CUTOFF FOUR CORNERS UPPER LOW, AND ANOTHER
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO QUICKLY MANEUVER OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND GREATER BC REGION, INTO CNTRL CANADA AND THE NRN US. PER
THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE, CONSENSUS IS TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLNS, W/ POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGHING QUICKLY DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND NERN US BY LATE WEEK. AT THE SFC, AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WL RESULT IN A WEAKLY ORGANIZED FRNT,
THAT WL SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR INCRSG RAIN CHANCES FM WED THRU
FRI OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS, AND PORTIONS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU, THOUGH
CURRENT QPF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SHARP CUTOFF OF
RAINFALL FM 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER NWRN AR TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH
TOWARDS CNTRL TO SRN AR.
LATE IN THE PD/FRI-SUN, A STRONG FALL CDFRNT REMAINS PROGGED TO
QUICKLY SWEEP SWRD THRU THE SRN PLAINS, DRIVEN BY A STRONG
CONTINENTAL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS
THE FRNT REACHING NWRN AR FRI MRNG, AND QUICKLY MOVING THRU THE
STATE BY FRI NIGHT. LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WL PERSIST ACRS THE STATE
FRI AS THE FRNT ENCOUNTERS ANTECEDENT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE, BUT POPS
SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE STATE.
CONCERNING WEEKEND LOW TEMPERATURES, FCST VALUES HAVE TRENDED
UPWARDS, THOUGH NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE COULD STILL SEE FROST TO
NEAR FREEZING CONDNS SAT AND SUN MRNGS, DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG
RESULTANT CAA IS BEHIND THE CDFRNT. THAT BEING SAID, LATEST NBM
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR FREEZING TEMPS HAS DIMINISHED ACRS NRN AR
TO MOSTLY LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDNS TO PREVAIL THRU THE PD, W/ GUSTY SW WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KTS THRU THE DAY MON, W/ GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
ACRS NWRN TO NRN TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD RELAX BEYOND 00Z MON
EVNG.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 92 66 94 72 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 93 65 93 70 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 89 69 91 72 / 0 0 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 91 66 92 72 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 92 68 93 72 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 93 66 93 70 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 90 65 91 70 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 91 66 92 71 / 0 0 0 20
NEWPORT AR 92 65 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 92 65 93 70 / 0 0 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 92 67 93 72 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 93 64 94 70 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 94 67 95 72 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...72
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