940
FXUS64 KLZK 092254
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
554 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
-DAILY HAZARDOUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK, INCLUDING HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 100 TO 105 DEGREES.
-WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY LATE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
THRU THE WEEK AHEAD, DAILY HAZARDOUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WL BE
THE MAIN TALKING POINT ACRS THE FA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 100 TO
105 DEGREES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR HEAT RISK AND HAZARDOUS HEAT
LEVELS WL EXIST ACRS THE AR RIVER VALLEY, AND MUCH OF ERN AR AND THE
RIVER DELTA REGIONS.
BY FRI AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THERE IS REASONABLE CONSENSUS ON THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER TROF SET TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES REGIONS,
W/ ASCTD SFC CYCLONIC FLOW AND A TRAILING CDFRNT EXTENDING SWWRD
INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU AND SRN PLAINS. AS THIS FRNT SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE FA ON FRI, WIDESPREAD, BUT LOW MAGNITUDE POPS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SEWRD.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRNT IS PROGGED TO STALL OUT ACRS THE OZARK
PLATEAU VCTY, AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR DAILY POPS THRU THE WEEKEND.
LATEST NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEEKEND QPF TOTALS AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACRS AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE. GENERALLY, A STALLED
SUMMERTIME FRNT AND AT LEAST SOME COMPONENT OF WRLY FLOW ALOFT IS A
PRECURSOR SIGNAL FOR PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD QPF POTENTIAL IN THE
SRN PLAINS.
IF YOU GO BY THE LAST FULL DAY'S SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE,
YOU MAY THINK IT'S TIME TO PANIC BASED ON SWATHS OF MUCH HIGHER QPF
ACRS WRN AR DURING THE SUN-MON TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, MASS FIELDS SEEM
TO INDICATE THESE HIGHER QPF PROGS HAVE LARGELY BEEN DRIVEN BY
MESOSCALE FEATURES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT, AND ARE STILL VARIABLE IN
TIME AND SPACE AT THE END RANGE OF THE CURRENT FCST PD.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS NOT LATCHED ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT SCENARIOS
EITHER, BUT RATHER IS HIGHLIGHTING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, THE TRENDS
WILL DRIVE THE FCST AND KEY MESSAGES, AND IT DOES APPEAR THERE WL BE
A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, INCLUDING POSSIBLY
HIGHER TOTALS ABOVE CURRENT NBM BASE VALUES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL
LOW ON WHAT THE CEILING MAY END UP REACHING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD OF TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST IN EXCESS
OF 21 KNOTS AT MANY SITES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND RELAX OVERNIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 76 93 78 93 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 76 94 77 94 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 73 89 75 89 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 77 92 79 92 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 77 93 79 92 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 76 95 78 95 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 77 90 79 91 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 73 90 75 89 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 77 94 78 94 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 77 94 78 94 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 77 93 79 93 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 76 94 77 94 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 78 93 79 94 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ006>008-015>017-
024-025-031>034-039-043>047-056-057-121-122-130.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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