260
FXUS64 KLZK 020449
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1149 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
-RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS.
-TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE STATE.
-THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR STATEWIDE RAINFALL WILL BE BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT:
A CLOSED LOW ALOFT EJECTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES COMBINED WITH A
SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL BE THE FOCAL
POINT OF RAINFALL TODAY. THERE IS A NOTICEABLE SOUTHERLY SHIFT TO
THE RAINFALL AXIS, SO THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS HAVE
DECREASED, WITH FORECASTED AMOUNTS ALSO LOWERED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING (GENERALLY ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS). SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S, WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
THIS WEEKEND:
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS, AS REMNANTS OF THE STINGY LONGWAVE
TROUGHING THAT'S BEEN CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
U.S. GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST, SO DRYING AND WARMING CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY, WHERE THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES (25TH-75TH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS THE STATE) AS A RESULT OF A MODERATING RIDGE THAT WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL
PHASE WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET, RESULTING IN IMPROVING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW AMPLIFIED
THIS TROUGH BECOMES WOULD AFFECT TIMING OF RAINFALL AND THE
AMOUNTS, BUT CONSENSUS IS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
PATTERN EVOLUTION IS RESULTING IN LOW SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
DURING THIS PERIOD AT THIS TIME. WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
ANTICIPATED, TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS IS
EXPECTED.
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK:
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS DEPICT THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AGAIN SHIFTING EASTWARD, BUT HOW QUICKLY THIS TROUGHING SHIFTS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE BECOMES GOING THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. SHOULD THE TROUGHING LINGER, ANOTHER COUPLE ROUNDS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY COMMENCE, BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE ENTIRE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST IN EXCESS OF 18 KNOTS
AT THE SITES OF KHRO AND KLIT FROM SATURDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 67 44 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 66 46 73 44 / 40 30 0 0
HARRISON AR 66 42 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 69 46 72 44 / 10 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 68 47 71 46 / 10 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 66 48 72 46 / 40 40 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 67 44 71 44 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 66 42 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 68 46 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 67 47 73 45 / 20 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 74 45 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 68 44 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 68 48 71 47 / 10 10 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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