560
FXUS64 KLZK 051147
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
647 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
-ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS
-SEVERE THREAT INCREASES MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE
-LINGERING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS
-ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THE REGION WILL BE DEALING WITH 2 SEPARATE WAVES OF ACTIVE WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE WILL START THIS MORNING
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE PASSES EAST OVER AR/MO...WITH SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NRN SECTION OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS MORNING ACTIVITY WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY GIVEN ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO REMAIN NON-SFC BASED.
THE MAIN EVENT WILL COME BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS MORE INTENSE UPPER
ENERGY SHIFTS EAST...AND A SFC COLD FRONT DROP SE INTO THE STATE.
SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. INITIALLY...A CAPPING INVERSION
WILL HOLD CONVECTION FROM FIRING...BUT AS THE FRONTAL FORCING SHIFTS
SE...EXPECT INITIATION OF CONVECTION BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON HRS OVER
PORTIONS OF NRN AR. THIS WILL BE AT THE NOSE OF A SWATH OF 1500-
2000+ J/KG MOST UNSTABLE CAPE...AND AN AREA OF 40-60+ KTS SHR. AS A
RESULT...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THERE
LOOKS TO BE POCKETS OF 200-300+ M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH IN THIS SAME ZONE.
SO...SOME ROTATING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY BE SEEN GIVEN THESE
PARAMETERS...WITH STORM MOTIONS E AND SE JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT.
BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THE OVERLAP OF BEST INSTABILITY AND LOW
LEVEL SHR DOES DISPLACE SOME...WITH THE TORNADO THREAT DECREASING
SOME INTO THE EVENING HRS AS ACTIVITY DROPS FURTHER SE. EVEN
SO...THERE WILL SEE BE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES INTO THE
LATER EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS GIVEN SOME 0-1 KM SRH. SFC
BASED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE DECREASING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. INCREASING INTENSITY OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ MAY OVERCOME THE
DECREASED SFC BASED INSTABILITY HOWEVER...KEEPING THE SVR THREAT
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS FOR SOME AREAS JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.
BY AROUND SUNRISE WED...MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST/SE
OF THE CWA AS THE SFC FRONT DROPS SE TO EXTREME SERN AR. SOME
LINGERING STRONG/SVR STORMS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE ON WED ACROSS
EXTREME SERN AR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTH
OF THE STATE LATER ON WED AFTERNOON.
COOLER AND CALMER CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
LATE WED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DO
RETURN BY SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SUN FOR WAVE 2 OF ACTIVE WEATHER. MORE
STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...DETAILS REGARDING EXACT SEVERE
WEATHER DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
SHRA/TSRA WERE ONGOING OVER MAINLY NRN HALF OF AR THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING WITH CIGS RAPIDLY
DECREASING FROM VFR TO IFR AT MOST SITES. MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP NEAR ~21Z OVER NW AR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH SE WITH TIME AFFECTING CNTRL TERMINALS BETWEEN 00-06Z.
PRECIP SHOULD STALL NEAR CNTRL AR WITH A STALLING FRONT. SE
TERMINALS MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MUCH THE TAF CYCLE.
S/SWRLY WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 KTS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 75 50 61 46 / 60 80 40 20
CAMDEN AR 84 64 71 50 / 20 50 80 50
HARRISON AR 71 46 58 42 / 80 60 30 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 82 56 64 48 / 30 80 50 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 80 56 63 49 / 30 90 50 30
MONTICELLO AR 82 66 70 52 / 20 50 90 70
MOUNT IDA AR 82 57 65 48 / 30 70 50 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 69 46 59 43 / 80 80 40 10
NEWPORT AR 75 53 62 49 / 60 90 50 30
PINE BLUFF AR 83 59 65 50 / 30 90 70 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 81 53 64 48 / 50 80 40 20
SEARCY AR 77 52 62 47 / 40 90 40 20
STUTTGART AR 81 57 63 51 / 40 90 60 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70
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