766
FXUS64 KLZK 140733
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
133 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 112 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
-THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, BUT THE FLOODING THREAT
REMAINS LOW.
-WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
-DRYING OUT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD A PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGES PUSHES OFF TOWARDS THE EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE STATE LATER TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LIKELY. MUCH OF THE STATE CAN EXPECT MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES LIKELY. WITH
THAT SAID, LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4+ INCHES OF RAIN CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS MUCH OF
THE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE STATE INTO LA/MS
BUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE.
CALMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE
LEVELS AND AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO MAINLY ON SAT.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL COME DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HRS ON SAT...WHERE THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN.
IMPROVEMENTS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN MORNING SOMETIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 59 51 61 42 / 100 100 50 0
CAMDEN AR 71 56 67 44 / 80 100 50 0
HARRISON AR 58 48 59 41 / 100 90 20 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 67 55 65 43 / 100 100 40 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 68 55 63 43 / 90 100 50 0
MONTICELLO AR 72 60 65 47 / 60 100 70 0
MOUNT IDA AR 65 53 65 42 / 100 100 30 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 55 48 60 39 / 100 100 20 0
NEWPORT AR 60 53 59 43 / 90 100 60 0
PINE BLUFF AR 71 56 63 44 / 80 100 70 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 63 53 65 42 / 100 100 20 0
SEARCY AR 65 51 61 40 / 90 100 50 0
STUTTGART AR 69 56 60 45 / 90 100 70 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...77
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