686
FXUS64 KLZK 242350
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
550 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
-RECORD SETTING WARMTH CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
EXTENDING INTO THIS WEEKEND
-RAIN CHANCES INCREASING LATE WEEKEND, WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES SETTLING INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
RECORD SETTING WARMTH THAT SURGED INTO THE REGION YESTERDAY WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AS A HISTORICALLY STRONG
(>99TH PERCENTILE) MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. DUE TO
THE WARMER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY, BUMPED UP THE
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WHERE
HIGHS ACROSS THE STATE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL
CHALLENGE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES (AND OVERNIGHT WARM LOWS)
THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
A PATTERN CHANGE IS SET FOR SUNDAY AS A MUCH COLDER POLAR AIRMASS
SURGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CONUS. THE LOW CENTER
IS CURRENTLY PEGGED TO TRACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT A
FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. BASED ON PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE, THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSION IS A BIT SLOWER. THE CHANGE IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS TIMING-WISE MORE FOR THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY UP TO 10
DEGREES WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN GRADUALLY
MODIFY AS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MODIFYING INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
GRADUAL WARMING GOING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTIES APPARENT IN THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK WILL BE THE PACE TO
WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT'LL IMPACT THE REGION STARTING
SUNDAY WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD, WHICH THEN IMPACT HOW QUICKLY
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW STRATUS AND FG
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 15/16Z ON THURS AS FG DISSIPATES AND CIGS
INCREASE. WINDS SHOULD BE SW AT AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS ON THURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 59 78 61 79 / 10 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 59 77 61 79 / 10 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 59 79 61 79 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 59 76 63 79 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 60 76 62 78 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 61 78 63 79 / 0 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 61 78 63 81 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 57 78 60 79 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 60 76 62 78 / 10 0 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 60 77 63 79 / 0 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 58 80 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 58 77 60 79 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 60 77 63 78 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...70
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