154
FXUS64 KLZK 070003 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
603 PM CST THU FEB 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST THU FEB 6 2025
SEVERAL SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS WILL FLUCTUATE
SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
19Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS, AS WELL AS OBSERVATIONAL DATA,
INDICATE A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH OF FORT SMITH, TO NEAR CORNING, A
BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. A PRONOUNCED
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WAS NOTED FROM NORTHERN TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE.
THE BOUNDARY(S) WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY BE NEAR
NORMAL.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL POSITION OF THE FRONT. MODEL
FORECAST SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THIS FEATURE RANGE WIDELY. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER SOLUTIONS, GIVEN RECENT SUCCESSES OF THIS
PRACTICE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST THU FEB 6 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING QUICK PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, USHERING IN A PERIOD OF COLD
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK. SFC RIDGING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SPREAD SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND MUCH OF
ARKANSAS WILL FIND ITSELF DEALING WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES, BUT
NOTHING TOO UNEXPECTED FOR EARLY TO MID-FEBRUARY. THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF H500 DISTURBANCES THAT PASS
THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SFC, THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO
SOUTH OF THE STATE AND MORE THAN ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG IT FROM TUE-THU. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP PROVIDE OCCASIONAL
PRECIP TO THE STATE AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE ORIENTATION OF THE H500 FLOW BEING OUT OF THE SW AND WITH COLD
AIR IN PLACE AT THE SFC, THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR WINTER WEATHER
BETWEEN MON-WED ACROSS AR. WITH SFC RIDGING FOCUSED JUST TO THE
NORTH, PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR NEXT
WEEK. THIS DOESN'T BODE WELL FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF WARMING
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.
NORTHERN AR REMAINS MORE FAVORABLE IN TERMS OF SEEING WINTER WEATHER
AS THE COLD AIR WILL BE MORE SUFFICIENT. MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN WIDE
RANGING IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE FOR NEXT WEEK, BUT THE FOCUS REMAINS
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE MID-LEVEL SW FLOW AND
THE NATURE OF THE SHALLOW AIRMASS, THERE IS SOME REAL CONCERN FOR A
FREEZING RAIN EVENT ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND NEARBY AREAS. ANY
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL DRASTICALLY IMPACT THE DOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. ELSEWHERE, AWAY FROM THE WINTER
WEATHER THREAT, SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED AND SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS MAY BE SEEN. MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS THREAT WOULD BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST THU FEB 6 2025
AREA-WIDE CLOUD COVER INVOF A RECEDING STATIONARY FRNT WAS NOTED
OVER MUCH OF THE FA AS OF 07/00Z THURS NIGHT. THIS RECEDING FRNT
WL DRIVE CONDNS FOR AREA TERMINALS THRU MUCH OF THE PD. EXPECT THE
FRNT, LAST ANALYZED NEAR CNTRL AR (ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR), W/
MVFR CONDNS AT NRN TERMINALS, AND OVC, BUT VFR CONDNS NEAR AND S
OF THE FRNT. THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD, CONDNS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE AREA-WIDE TO IFR LVLS, LOW CIGS PRIMARILY ACRS NRN AR.
ALONG AND S OF THE FRNT, CNTRL AND SRN TERMINALS WL SEE CIGS FALL
IFR LVLS, ALONG W/ PATCHY FG/REDUCED VISBYS, PARTICULARLY BEYOND
07/06Z TONIGHT AND THRU THE FIRST HALF OF FRI MRNG.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 40 45 42 71 / 20 10 30 10
CAMDEN AR 52 69 60 81 / 10 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 38 43 42 66 / 10 20 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 46 55 51 76 / 30 30 20 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 44 52 50 77 / 30 30 20 20
MONTICELLO AR 53 67 61 80 / 10 10 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 47 57 53 76 / 30 30 20 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 38 43 40 64 / 10 20 20 10
NEWPORT AR 42 47 44 72 / 30 20 30 20
PINE BLUFF AR 48 60 55 80 / 30 10 10 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 43 48 47 73 / 20 40 20 20
SEARCY AR 42 49 46 74 / 40 20 30 20
STUTTGART AR 46 54 52 78 / 40 20 20 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...72
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