701
FXUS64 KLZK 062341
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
541 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER WEST TO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT, INCLUDING ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.
- ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
TO EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO A
RISK FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH SOME LOCATIONS NEARING DAILY RECORDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACRS THE NWRN TO WRN AR FRI EVNG TO OVERNIGHT
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED W/ CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK, AND
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO MENTION REGARDING SEVERE HAZARDS.
RECENT MESOANALYSIS DEPICTED A HIGH-AMPLITUDE H500 TROF MOVING EWRD
ACRS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, W/ STRONG SWRLY FLOW EXTENDING OVER
MUCH OF THE SRN CNTRL US. AT THE SFC, BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS
CENTERED OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES/CNTRL GREAT PLAINS, W/ A WRM
FRNT DRAPED EWRD ALONG THE I70 TO I44 CORRIDOR THROUGH KS TO MO.
LOCALLY, SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WERE PREVALENT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION, W/ A PLUME OF LOW 60S DEWPOINTS LOCATED OVER THE I10
CORRIDOR IN NRN LA. THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PD THURS
NIGHT, POLEWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT WL BE AIDED BY 45KT H850 LLJ, W/
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF AR BY 18Z FRI AFTN.
..FRI/SAT SEVERE WEATHER
THRU THE DAY FRI, A JET STREAK IN THE BASAL REGION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED H500 TROF WL QUICKLY EJECT NEWRD OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS, W/ WRN TO NWRN AR ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGHER MAGNITUDE DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR, BUT MODEST BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO NEAR 50 KTS IS STILL
FCST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER FRI NIGHT. SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT, AND STRONG WRM ADVECTION OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU FRI AFTN
ALONGSIDE INCRSG BL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST
DESTABILIZATION ACRS THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE BY FRI EVNG. SOME
VARIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTIES ARE STILL EVIDENT AMONGST CAM
GUIDANCE, BUT A CONSENSUS ON MUCAPE PROGS NEAR 1000 J/KG IS STILL
EVIDENT, W/ SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY PERSISTING THRU 06Z FRI NIGHT. GIVEN
THE STRONG WRM ADVECTION REGIME, SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED
CONVECTION COULD ARISE OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE STATE ON FRI, AND
WOULD LEAD TO GREATER SFC INHIBITION LATER ON.
BASED ON 00Z HREF MEMBERS, STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BEGIN OVER ERN
OK NEAR 00Z FRI NIGHT, W/ CLUSTERS OF STORMS QUICKLY MOVING NEWRD
INTO WRN AND NWRN AR THRU 00-06Z. AN INITIAL SEMI-DISCRETE STORM-
MODE WL LKLY TRANSITION TO SEGMENTS AND BOWING SEGMENTS AS SWRLY
SHEAR VECTORS LEAD TO UPSCALE GROWTH. DESPITE UPSCALE GROWTH, THE
ONSET OF ANOTHER 40-50 KT LLJ SHOULD DRIVE STORM MAINTENANCE WELL
BEYOND 00Z, W/ LOCAL HODOGRAPHS BECOMING ENHANCED, AND SUPPORTING
LOW-LEVEL SRH NEAR 200-300 M2/S2, AND DRIVING A CONDITIONAL TORNADO
THREAT. AS USUALLY TENDS TO BE THE CASE, THE DIURNAL TRANSITION WL
YIELD A CHALLENGE FOR STORMS TO STAY SFC-BASED, AND IF THIS
CONDITION CAN BE ACHIEVED, A HIGHER TORNADO THREAT WL MANIFEST THRU
THE EVNG, AS WELL AS THE ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT W/ ANY
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WL LKLY PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD FRI,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING UNDERCUT BY A TRAILING CDFRNT AS IT REACHES
CNTRL AR SAT MRNG. AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN THEREAFTER, W/ THE CONVECTIVE REMNANTS BECOMING
REINVIGORATED SAT AFTN, DEPARTING TO THE SE TOWARDS THE ARKLAMISS
REGION THRU THE REMAINDER OF SAT.
..FRI/SAT FLASH FLOODING
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WL
BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CURRENT BASE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOCAL
REGIONS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WL BE POSSIBLE OVER WRN TO
NWRN AR OVERNIGHT FRI, AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO HIGHER TOTALS.
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL FM WED NIGHT YIELDED SOME AREAS OF RAINFALL NEAR
1.5 TO 2 INCHES, AND MAY BE PRIMED FOR A QUICKER FLOODING THREAT IF
RAINFALL OCCURS OVER THESE SAME REGIONS, OTHERWISE, THE FLOODING
THREAT SHOULD STAY MORE ISOLATED FRI NIGHT.
SAT, GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SERN HALF OF THE STATE THRU SAT NIGHT. RICHER MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFRNT, AND
WEAKER ERLY MEAN WIND MOTION VECTORS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO GREATER
TRAINING POTENTIAL W/IN AN ONGOING MCS. THRU SAT NIGHT, BASE QPF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE
SERN HALF OF THE STATE, W/ GREATER TOTALS NEAR THE ARKLAMISS REGION,
AND HIGHER 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF SERN AR. ANTECEDENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS SUGGEST MOST OF
THIS RAINFALL COULD BE BENEFICIAL, BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAINING
COULD LEAD TO MORE PROMINENT FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.
..REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THRU THE END OF THE WEEKEND, A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE DAY SUN, W/ THE CDFRNT WASHING OUT OVER SERN AR, AND
DRIVING HIGHER POPS OVER FAR SERN AR. SRLY SFC FLOW SHOULD QUICKLY
RESUME BY MON, W/ INCRSG COVG OF POPS FOR MUCH OF STATE BY MON AFTN
TO EVNG. QUICK RECOVERY OF SFC MOISTURE, AND A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACRS THE OZARK PLATEAU COULD YIELD SOME ORGANIZED STORM
POTENTIAL, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER ON ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES MON.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENTS ON OUR NEXT
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM MID NEXT WEEK. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE PICKED UP BY
THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. GEFS HAS THE SYSTEM BECOME A LOT WEAKER AS IT APPROACHES AND
FAVORS MORE OF A GENERAL WASHOUT PATTERN. EPS HAS THE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE ARK/LA/TEX REGION. THIS WOULD PROMOTE MORE
OF AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH ENSEMBLES
FAVOR QPF BETWEEN 3-5" ACROSS MOST OF AR SO WIDESPREAD GOOD
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOME VERY ZONAL FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL DURING
THIS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT CLOSER TO THE
END OF THE WEEK SETTING THE STAGE FOR A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 02Z ACROOS THE STATE. AFTER
02Z RUNS OF HI RES CAMS SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECT THROUGH 09Z BEFORE A LINE CONGEALS OVER WESTERN
AR FIRST IMPACTING NORTHERN TERMINALS AROUND 06Z WITH CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TERMINALS SEEING IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 10Z.
EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 06Z WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO VISIBILITY ALONG WITH STRONG
WIND GUSTS, OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE S/SW AT 8-10 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS. SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS WILL SEE IMPACTS AFTER 15Z WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CLEARING THE STATE AFTER THE TAF
PERIOD. LLWS EXPECTED OF WS020/18040KTS AT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
TERMINALS AND WS 020 20040KTS ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS AROUND
02-03Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 64 76 48 70 / 90 90 40 10
CAMDEN AR 65 76 55 70 / 90 100 80 30
HARRISON AR 58 69 40 71 / 90 50 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 62 75 51 71 / 90 90 70 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 65 76 53 70 / 90 100 60 10
MONTICELLO AR 67 76 57 70 / 70 100 80 40
MOUNT IDA AR 61 75 48 74 / 90 90 60 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 61 72 41 70 / 90 60 20 0
NEWPORT AR 64 74 50 66 / 80 90 50 10
PINE BLUFF AR 64 74 54 68 / 80 100 70 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 62 76 47 73 / 90 80 40 10
SEARCY AR 63 76 50 70 / 90 90 50 10
STUTTGART AR 65 73 54 67 / 80 100 60 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...76
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