090
FXUS64 KLZK 052328 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
628 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
-ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS
-SEVERE THREAT INCREASES MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE
-LINGERING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS
-ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THE REGION WILL BE DEALING WITH 2 SEPARATE WAVES OF ACTIVE WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE WILL START THIS MORNING
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE PASSES EAST OVER AR/MO...WITH SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NRN SECTION OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS MORNING ACTIVITY WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY GIVEN ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO REMAIN NON-SFC BASED.
THE MAIN EVENT WILL COME BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS MORE INTENSE UPPER
ENERGY SHIFTS EAST...AND A SFC COLD FRONT DROP SE INTO THE STATE.
SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. INITIALLY...A CAPPING INVERSION
WILL HOLD CONVECTION FROM FIRING...BUT AS THE FRONTAL FORCING SHIFTS
SE...EXPECT INITIATION OF CONVECTION BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON HRS OVER
PORTIONS OF NRN AR. THIS WILL BE AT THE NOSE OF A SWATH OF 1500-
2000+ J/KG MOST UNSTABLE CAPE...AND AN AREA OF 40-60+ KTS SHR. AS A
RESULT...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THERE
LOOKS TO BE POCKETS OF 200-300+ M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH IN THIS SAME ZONE.
SO...SOME ROTATING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY BE SEEN GIVEN THESE
PARAMETERS...WITH STORM MOTIONS E AND SE JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT.
BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THE OVERLAP OF BEST INSTABILITY AND LOW
LEVEL SHR DOES DISPLACE SOME...WITH THE TORNADO THREAT DECREASING
SOME INTO THE EVENING HRS AS ACTIVITY DROPS FURTHER SE. EVEN
SO...THERE WILL SEE BE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES INTO THE
LATER EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS GIVEN SOME 0-1 KM SRH. SFC
BASED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE DECREASING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. INCREASING INTENSITY OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ MAY OVERCOME THE
DECREASED SFC BASED INSTABILITY HOWEVER...KEEPING THE SVR THREAT
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS FOR SOME AREAS JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.
BY AROUND SUNRISE WED...MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST/SE
OF THE CWA AS THE SFC FRONT DROPS SE TO EXTREME SERN AR. SOME
LINGERING STRONG/SVR STORMS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE ON WED ACROSS
EXTREME SERN AR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTH
OF THE STATE LATER ON WED AFTERNOON.
COOLER AND CALMER CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
LATE WED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DO
RETURN BY SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SUN FOR WAVE 2 OF ACTIVE WEATHER. MORE
STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...DETAILS REGARDING EXACT SEVERE
WEATHER DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
MIXED MVFR TO IFR CONDNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FA THRU THE NEW PD
AS A CDFRNT MOVES THRU. EXPECT CIGS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR LVLS
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT, W/ ASCTD TSRA MOVING ALONG THE CDFRNT. PRECIP
WL LKLY CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST 12Z WED MRNG OVER CNTRL TO SERN AR.
NWRLY WINDS WL ENSUE BEHIND THE FRNT, W/ SWRLY TO SRLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRNT. SOME VARIABLE AND CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WIND GUSTS MAY
OCCUR, BUT HAVE EXCLUDED MENTIONS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 50 63 47 67 / 80 30 20 0
CAMDEN AR 61 70 51 70 / 60 90 50 10
HARRISON AR 46 59 43 67 / 50 30 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 55 65 50 70 / 80 60 30 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 54 65 50 68 / 80 60 40 10
MONTICELLO AR 61 71 53 69 / 50 90 70 20
MOUNT IDA AR 55 65 49 70 / 70 50 20 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 46 60 44 67 / 50 20 10 10
NEWPORT AR 53 61 49 67 / 80 70 30 0
PINE BLUFF AR 56 65 51 68 / 70 90 60 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 52 64 49 71 / 50 50 20 0
SEARCY AR 51 63 47 69 / 80 80 40 10
STUTTGART AR 55 63 52 67 / 80 80 50 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...72
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