068
FXUS64 KLZK 161945
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
245 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT STRONG/EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SINCE LATE MORNING.
STILL EXPECT SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING,
PROMOTED BY THE REMNANTS OF TS BARRY, WITH SOME ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY, AND ALONG WITH SMALL SCALE BOUNDARIES, WIDELY SCATTERED
WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE PROMOTED. ALSO, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL RECENT CONDITIONS,
AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS, WILL ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED TERM, WHILE AT THE SURFACE A
WARM AND MOIST FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE GULF. AS A RESULT, EXCESSIVELY HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY.
UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, EXCESSIVE HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.
BY MONDAY, THINGS START TO CHANGE, AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE WEST,
AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES NORTHERLY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE AREA IN THE MONDAY TO
MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME (OR PERHAPS A BIT LATER DEPENDING UPON MODEL
TIMING ISSUES), WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE
80'S STATEWIDE ON TUESDAY, ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER DEWPOINTS. THIS
WILL ALSO BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST, PRIMARILY FOR
MONDAY-TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 72 94 74 94 / 50 20 10 0
CAMDEN AR 76 94 76 94 / 40 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 72 94 73 92 / 20 10 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 75 92 75 92 / 40 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 74 93 76 94 / 40 20 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 76 92 76 93 / 50 20 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 75 92 74 92 / 30 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 72 94 72 93 / 20 20 10 0
NEWPORT AR 73 93 75 93 / 50 30 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 75 92 75 93 / 50 20 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 75 95 75 94 / 20 10 10 0
SEARCY AR 73 94 74 94 / 50 20 10 10
STUTTGART AR 75 92 75 93 / 60 30 10 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-NEWTON-PERRY-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-RANDOLPH-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-WHITE-
WOODRUFF.
SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...53
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