421
FXUS64 KLZK 301722
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1222 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
-RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS. THE
CHANCE FOR POPS WILL INCREASE TRACKING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS NEAR THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER.
-TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE STATE.
-THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR STATEWIDE RAINFALL WILL BE BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
THURSDAY (TODAY)/FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT:
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ACROSS THE GULF STATES TO
CLOSE OUT THE WORKWEEK. AS A RESULT POP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND BE THE HIGHEST ALONG THE
ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER CONSIDERABLY NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL ARKANSAS, AND WILL BE NON-EXISTENT INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES OVER THIS PERIOD TO BE NEAR
AVERAGE TO FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A SECOND QUICK
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND ASSIST IN
USHERING THE STATIONARY FRONT OFFSHORE AND FAR AWAY IN PROXIMITY
THAT MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
AND KEEP POP CHANCES PRESENT.
EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER PERIOD OVER THESE THREE DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO UPTICK OVERALL AS SURFACE WINDS TRANSITION TO OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE BY MONDAY.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WITH A MORE-DEFINED
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF ARE PROGGED TO MOVE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
ARKANSAS. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER ON MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO INCREASE STATEWIDE. AT THE MOMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEARLY A WEEK OUT IS TOO LOW
CONFIDENCE TO DISCERN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WITH THAT
SAID, SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN TERMINALS BUT KEPT OUT OF TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 49 68 47 68 / 0 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 52 65 47 72 / 20 50 50 0
HARRISON AR 46 66 43 65 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 51 66 47 70 / 10 30 20 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 52 68 49 70 / 10 20 20 0
MONTICELLO AR 53 67 50 71 / 20 50 60 0
MOUNT IDA AR 49 66 46 70 / 10 30 20 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 47 66 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 51 68 49 69 / 0 10 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 52 67 48 71 / 10 30 40 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 50 68 47 70 / 0 10 10 0
SEARCY AR 49 68 47 70 / 10 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 52 67 50 70 / 10 20 30 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...73
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