113
FXUS64 KLZK 240532
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1232 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
-MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS THE UNOFFICIAL BEGINNING TO SUMMER; THUS IF
YOU FIND YOURSELF OUTDOORS AND THUNDER ROARS, IMMEDIATELY SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
-CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST OFF AND ON THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
-THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW...BUT, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE OF ARKANSAS
WITH A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE STATE OR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STATE ALLOWING FOR ELEVATED
POP CHANCES STATEWIDE OVER THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN
TANDEM WITH AN UPPER LVL LOW THAT BECOMES STALLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
A LARGE PORTION OF ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASED CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. A REMINDER AS MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND IS THE UNOFFICIAL BEGINNING TO SUMMER, IF THUNDER ROARS, GO
INDOORS!
DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN, MOST DAYS WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST LOWER-END OR
UNDERACHIEVING NBM GUIDANCE HAS RAIN TOTALS OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT WEEK, INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS
THOSE VALUES INCREASE BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2 INCHES, AND INTO SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS TOTAL RAINFALL VALUES ON THE LOWER END OF NBM GUIDANCE IS
BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AS WELL.
CONVERSELY, THE HIGHER-END OR OVERPERFORMING NBM GUIDANCE HAS
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.75 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT WEEK, INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS THOSE VALUES
INCREASE BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3 INCHES, AND INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TOTAL
RAINFALL VALUES ON THE HIGHER END OF NBM GUIDANCE IS BETWEEN 2.5 TO
3 INCHES AS WELL.
LATEST DETERMINISTIC FORECAST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN THE MEAN NBM TOTAL RAINFALL: NORTHERN ARKANSAS BETWEEN 0.75 AND
1.25 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL, CENTRAL ARKANSAS BETWEEN 1.5 AND
2.25 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL, AND ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BETWEEN
1.75 AND 3 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT THIS TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE
DISPERSED OVER A WEEK LONG PERIOD; HOWEVER, A FEW LOCATIONS MAY
EXCEED THEIR PROJECTED TOTAL RAINFALL IF THEIR LOCATION EXPERIENCES
RAIN THAT TRAINS OVER THE SAME LOCATION WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
VALUES AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO LOWER INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS AND BRING A DRIER
AIRMASS TO THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME
BUT GUIDANCE SUGGEST THESE WILL ONLY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE DETERIORATING. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN VERY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND WILL ONLY BE INCLUDED IN A FEW
TERMINALS WHERE CHANCES ARE BETTER. OTHERWISE, VCSH WILL SUFFICE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST, AVERAGING
UNDER 8 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 80 64 77 65 / 30 20 60 60
CAMDEN AR 80 64 78 64 / 20 40 60 60
HARRISON AR 79 62 77 63 / 0 0 30 60
HOT SPRINGS AR 81 65 77 65 / 10 30 50 50
LITTLE ROCK AR 80 65 77 65 / 20 30 50 50
MONTICELLO AR 79 66 78 66 / 50 50 80 60
MOUNT IDA AR 80 66 77 65 / 10 10 60 60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 80 62 77 63 / 10 10 40 60
NEWPORT AR 82 65 79 66 / 40 30 70 80
PINE BLUFF AR 80 66 78 66 / 30 40 70 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 82 65 79 66 / 10 10 50 50
SEARCY AR 81 63 77 64 / 30 30 60 60
STUTTGART AR 80 67 78 67 / 30 40 60 60
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...56
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