792
FXUS64 KLZK 011047
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
547 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
-RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS.
-TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE STATE.
-THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR STATEWIDE RAINFALL WILL BE BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT:
A CLOSED LOW ALOFT EJECTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES COMBINED WITH A
SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL BE THE FOCAL
POINT OF RAINFALL TODAY. THERE IS A NOTICEABLE SOUTHERLY SHIFT TO
THE RAINFALL AXIS, SO THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS HAVE
DECREASED, WITH FORECASTED AMOUNTS ALSO LOWERED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING (GENERALLY ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS). SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S, WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
THIS WEEKEND:
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS, AS REMNANTS OF THE STINGY LONGWAVE
TROUGHING THAT'S BEEN CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
U.S. GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST, SO DRYING AND WARMING CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY, WHERE THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES (25TH-75TH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS THE STATE) AS A RESULT OF A MODERATING RIDGE THAT WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL
PHASE WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET, RESULTING IN IMPROVING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW AMPLIFIED
THIS TROUGH BECOMES WOULD AFFECT TIMING OF RAINFALL AND THE
AMOUNTS, BUT CONSENSUS IS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
PATTERN EVOLUTION IS RESULTING IN LOW SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
DURING THIS PERIOD AT THIS TIME. WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
ANTICIPATED, TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS IS
EXPECTED.
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK:
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS DEPICT THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AGAIN SHIFTING EASTWARD, BUT HOW QUICKLY THIS TROUGHING SHIFTS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE BECOMES GOING THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. SHOULD THE TROUGHING LINGER, ANOTHER COUPLE ROUNDS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY COMMENCE, BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL SITES WITHIN THE FORECAST
PERIOD FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. VCSH HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT THE TERMINALS OF KADF, KPBF, AND KLLQ AS SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ARKANSAS
THROUGH FRIDAY LATER AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 68 45 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 65 47 73 44 / 50 50 0 0
HARRISON AR 65 42 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 67 47 71 43 / 10 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 68 48 71 45 / 10 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 66 49 72 46 / 40 50 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 67 45 70 42 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 66 42 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 68 47 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 67 48 71 44 / 20 30 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 69 45 71 42 / 10 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 68 45 70 42 / 10 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 67 50 70 46 / 10 20 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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