243
FXUS64 KLZK 262349
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
649 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
..NEW LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
H500 LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ROTATE ITS WAY TOWARD THE N/NE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BETWEEN RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
WHILE READINGS MAY BE BELOW NORMAL, IT STILL FEELS QUITE
UNCOMFORTABLE OUTSIDE AS TD VALUES ARE LARGELY IN THE 70S F. NO
MAJOR SEVERE/HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONCERNS OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. OBSERVED AND FORECAST PW VALUES OF
1.50"-2.00" WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION. WHILE CONFIDENCE ISN'T OVERLY HIGH
IN A SPECIFIC CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAINFALL, DAYTIME CAM RUNS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT AN AREA FROM WEST CENTRAL TO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
STATE WHERE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, H500
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OVER THE
STATE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID,
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH
TUESDAY BRINING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS.
AS THE PATTERN CHANGES GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE EXPECTED AS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE NATURAL
STATE.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE RETURNING TO
THE NATURAL STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES AND
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO 115 IN PLACES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS MUCH LESS EARLY THIS EVENING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY VFR/SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST THRU THE EVENING HRS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/FEW STORMS
WL AFFECT MUCH OF THE FA STARTING LATER TNGT ACRS SOUTHEAST, THEN
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AR HEADING INTO SAT. PROB30 AND TEMPO
GROUPS ARE INCLUDED BASED ON EXPECTED TIMING, WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS
PREVAILING. SOME IMPROVEMENT WL OCCUR SAT AFTN AS AREAL COVERAGE
STARTS TO DCRS FROM THE SOUTH.
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...44
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