063
FXUS64 KLZK 031129
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
629 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
-ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING IN NW AND
W AR.
-RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO NEXT WEEK
-ELEVATED FIRE DANGER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..FRI
VERY SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK, A LOW FORMING OFF THE ROCKIES
WILL PUSH NE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING CLDFRNT WILL BE THE
MAIN FORCING FOR STORMS TO FORM OUT TO OUR W DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
STATIONARY FRONT S OF KC WILL PULL N AND OPEN UP THE WARM SECTOR TO
THE N AND W. I-30 WILL EFFECTIVELY ACT AS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
WARM SECTOR. SOME STORM INITIATION IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN WSTRN AR MID AFTERNOON IN A DECENTLY BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT
WITH SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG. SOME LINGERING CIN IN THE
AREA COULD PROMOTE A MORE ISOLATED NATURE IN THESE STORMS AS THEY
ARE FORMING. HOWEVER, LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY MEAGER AT ALL
LEVELS AND STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THIS. DECENTLY CURVED BUT
SHORT HODOGRAPHS HAVE MOST OF THE SHEER AND HELICITY (20-
25KTS/120M^2/S^2) FOR THESE STORMS IN THE LOWEST 3KM, AND LACK OF
WINDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS COULD MAKE THINGS MESSY WITHIN THESE, IF
THEY CAN FORM, QUICKLY. AS THE LINE APPROACHES, THIS PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MUCH LESS FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS AS
DIURNAL INVERSIONS SET IN AND WILL TRANSITION FROM AN ALL HAZARDS TO
MAINLY HAIL THREAT.
THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE AN APPROACHING QLCS FROM THE WEST. AGAIN MUCH
LIKE EARLIER IN THE WEEK, THIS LINE WILL BE DYING OUT AS IT
APPROACHES THE CWA. SURFACE INVERSIONS BEGIN TO TAKE ROOT BY THE
TIME THE SYSTEM MAKES IT TO THE WSTRN EDGE OF THE CWA AND STORMS
WILL BECOME ELEVATED THE FURTHER EAST THEY PUSH. THERE WILL BE A
SHORT WINDOW FOR THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE IN OUR CWA BUT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON IF/HOW LONG THEY CAN REMAIN SURFACE BASED.
UNFORTUNATELY QPFS HAVE CONTINUED THE STEADY DOWNTREND TO AROUND 1-2
IN. ACROSS THE STATE, SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH TRAINING OR A PREFRONTAL STORM.
..SAT
SATURDAY WILL BRING A RELATIVELY MESSY DAY FOR THE STATE. SOME HEAVY
SHOWER AND T'STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED FROM THE DECAYING LINE FROM
THE NIGHT BEFORE. THE LINE WILL MAKE A PUSH TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
IN SE AR. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SURGE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
BRINGING MORE ENERGY NORTH MID AFTERNOON. THIS SURGE WILL BRING
SBCAPE VALUES BACK UP INTO THE 1500J/KG RANGE. RECENT TRENDS HAVE
GONE LATER AND THE LINE ORGANIZING MORE INTO MS/LA. THE MAJORITY OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLEARED OUT BY MIDNIGHT AND TEMPS WILL QUICKLY
BEGIN TO DROP BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH A 20-
25 DEGREE TEMP DROP BACK DOWN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS.
..SUN/MON/TUES
DRY AND CALMER CONDITIONS BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
CLDFRNT. TEMPS WILL FINALLY DROP TO MORE SEASONABLE MON AS A NOSE OF
A RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. FIRE WEATHER RISK
COULD BE ELEVATED THROUGH THE MIDWEEK AS MIN RHS WILL DROP TO NEAR
THE 30TH PERCENTILE BEHIND THE CLDFRONT. THE BIG LIMITER IN FIRE
RISK IN THE EARLY WEEK WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. SUSTAINED SFC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10MPH WITH GUSTS STRUGGLING TO GET
ABOVE 15MPH UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. TUES A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PASS TO OUR N. INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SHIFT
WINDS FROM NNW TO NNE AND PUSH IN A BIT COOLER AIR KEEPING HIGHS
DOWN IN THE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN NE AR.
..WED/THURS
BY MIDWEEK THE RIDGE WILL BE BLANKETED ACROSS THE REGION, AND IT
BRINGS WITH IT EVEN MORE CALM AND DRY WEATHER. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TEMPS AND MIN RH VALUES, BY THURS ELEVATED
FIRE RISK WILL DIMINISH AS MIN RH VALUES RETURN TO ABOVE 40TH AND
50TH PERCENTILES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW BUT LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND A BIT ON THE GUSTY SIDE.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 84 62 69 44 / 40 90 100 10
CAMDEN AR 86 64 74 46 / 40 50 100 30
HARRISON AR 81 53 62 40 / 50 100 70 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 84 60 69 45 / 30 80 100 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 85 65 71 46 / 30 70 100 20
MONTICELLO AR 86 68 76 50 / 40 40 100 50
MOUNT IDA AR 83 58 69 43 / 40 90 100 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 83 55 64 40 / 50 100 80 0
NEWPORT AR 85 63 71 45 / 30 80 100 10
PINE BLUFF AR 86 65 74 46 / 40 50 100 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 84 59 69 43 / 40 90 90 0
SEARCY AR 85 61 71 43 / 40 70 100 20
STUTTGART AR 85 66 74 47 / 40 60 100 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM....BENTLEY
AVIATION...56
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