967
FXUS64 KLZK 012234 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
534 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
-RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS.
-TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE STATE.
-THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR STATEWIDE RAINFALL WILL BE BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT:
A CLOSED LOW ALOFT EJECTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES COMBINED WITH A
SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL BE THE FOCAL
POINT OF RAINFALL TODAY. THERE IS A NOTICEABLE SOUTHERLY SHIFT TO
THE RAINFALL AXIS, SO THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS HAVE
DECREASED, WITH FORECASTED AMOUNTS ALSO LOWERED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING (GENERALLY ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS). SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S, WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
THIS WEEKEND:
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS, AS REMNANTS OF THE STINGY LONGWAVE
TROUGHING THAT'S BEEN CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
U.S. GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST, SO DRYING AND WARMING CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY, WHERE THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES (25TH-75TH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS THE STATE) AS A RESULT OF A MODERATING RIDGE THAT WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL
PHASE WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET, RESULTING IN IMPROVING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW AMPLIFIED
THIS TROUGH BECOMES WOULD AFFECT TIMING OF RAINFALL AND THE
AMOUNTS, BUT CONSENSUS IS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
PATTERN EVOLUTION IS RESULTING IN LOW SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
DURING THIS PERIOD AT THIS TIME. WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
ANTICIPATED, TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS IS
EXPECTED.
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK:
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS DEPICT THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AGAIN SHIFTING EASTWARD, BUT HOW QUICKLY THIS TROUGHING SHIFTS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE BECOMES GOING THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. SHOULD THE TROUGHING LINGER, ANOTHER COUPLE ROUNDS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY COMMENCE, BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
EXPECT DOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. NRLY WINDS MAY GUSTS ON SAT AFTERNOON NEARING 20 KTS FOR
SOME TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 44 68 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 46 73 44 79 / 30 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 42 65 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 46 72 44 78 / 10 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 47 71 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 48 72 46 77 / 40 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 44 71 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 42 65 39 77 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 46 69 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 47 73 45 78 / 10 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 45 71 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 44 70 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 48 71 47 76 / 10 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...62
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