063
FXUS64 KLZK 211145
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
545 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
- SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- A HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION
LATER THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ALL WINTER PRECIP TYPES ARE EXPECTED, WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE, AND
IMPACTFUL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OVER FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
- HAZARDOUS COLD CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY WINTER WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SUB-ZERO MINIMUM WIND
CHILL VALUES POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
EXPECT A FEW DAYS OF RELATIVELY SETTLED WEATHER ACRS THE NATURAL
STATE LEADING UP TO A HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM SET TO OVERSPREAD THE
SRN CNTRL US THIS COMING WEEKEND. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMGRY SHOWED
LIGHT PRECIP BEGINNING TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THE SW. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVG OVER THE FA THRU THE LATER
MRNG HOURS TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK CDFRNT THAT WL MOVE THRU THE STATE
THIS AFTN. OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL IN
MOST LOCATIONS. IN THE INTERIM, DRY, WARMER, AND SETTLED WEATHER WL
PREVAIL ON THURS, AS ATTENTION WL BE DIRECTED TO THE WINTER WX
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE POINTS
AT THIS POINT IN THE FCST PROCESS, THERE IS REASONABLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF HIGH IMPACT WINTER WX OVER MUCH OF AR FROM FRI NIGHT
THRU SUN MRNG, INCLUDING ALL MODES OF WINTER P-TYPES. TO QUICKLY
RECAP FORECAST TRENDS, TRENDS REMAIN EITHER POSITIVE (MEANING
INCREASING) OR AT LEAST STEADY-STATE IN REGARDS TO OVERARCHING
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES, AND LIQUID-EQUIVALENT PRECIP
AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES
SO, WHAT ARE WE UNCERTAIN ABOUT? WHERE THE PRIMARY TRANSITION ZONE,
AND ASSOCIATED REGION OF MIXED P-TYPES WL OCCUR, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
FAVORED SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR THRU THE DAY SAT BASED ON LATEST
ENSEMBLE MEAN H850 PROGS. STRONG H850-H700 WARM ADVECTION ACRS THE
SRN CNTRL US WL BE A LARGE CONTRIBUTOR TO HIGHER PRECIP RATES ON
SAT, BUT IF LOW-LVL WARM ADVECTION BECOMES TOO PROMINENT, THEN WARM
AIR ALOFT (EXPECTED OVER THE SRN THIRD OF AR) COULD DRIFT NWRD,
LOWERING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS AND EXPANDING THE MIXED P-TYPE ZONE,
THUS LOWERING POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS FOR CNTRL AR.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME VARIABILITY TO TOTAL LIQUID-QPF STILL EXISTS, AND
WL LARGELY BE CONTROLLED BY THE MOVEMENT OF AN H500 SHORTWAVE TROF
OVER THE BAJA OF CA. IF THIS FEATURE TRANSLATES FASTER THRU THE DAY
SAT, THEN THE ACCOMPANYING SUBTROPICAL JET AND FETCH OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE WL BE CUTOFF SOONER W/ LESSER POSSIBLE TOTAL QPF, AND VICE-
VERSA. AS OF NOW, LIQUID-QPF STILL REMAINS SIGNIFICANT FOR A WINTER
WX EVENT, W/ 48 HOUR FORECAST TOTALS OF AT LEAST ONE INCH EXTENDING
OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE, AND TOTALS NEARING 2 INCHES OR MORE
ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE STATE.
FREEZING RAIN
FOR THOSE ACRS SRN AR (POSSIBLY THE LOWER THREE ROWS OF COUNTIES),
THERE IS REASONABLE CONCERN FOR IMPACTFUL FREEZING RAIN AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENT. LATEST OFFICIAL GUIDANCE INDICATES
ICE ACCRUALS OF A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH, W/ GREATER TOTALS
FURTHER SWRD TOWARDS THE ARKLAMISS REGION. IF ICE ACCRUALS OF AT
LEAST THESE MAGNITUDES OCCUR, DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE AND
VEGETATION IS LIKELY, AND WOULD BECOME SIGNIFICANT W/ FORECAST
EXCEEDING AMOUNTS.
PROBABILISTIC FREEZING RAIN THRESHOLDS:
HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE STATE (60-70%)
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION OVER THE AR/LA COUNTY BORDER REGION (40-50%)
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR ONE INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER THE
AR/LA COUNTY BORDER REGION (30-40%)
SNOWFALL
REGARDING SNOWFALL, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN MARKEDLY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS IN TERMS OF THE FOOTPRINT
OF SNOWFALL AND IN FORECAST AMOUNTS. DESPITE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR FCST
TO BE PRESENT (E.G. TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S THRU THE DAY
SATURDAY), SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS MAY STILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 10:1 OVER
THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE STATE DUE IN PART TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG LOW-LVL WARM ADVECTION AFFECTING THERMAL PROFILES. SNOW-
LIQUID RATIOS OF 10-15:1 ARE EXPECTED OVER NRN AR, BUT WL BE OFFSET
BY LESSER LIQUID-QPF AMOUNTS.
INITIALLY, BULLISH AMOUNTS (SUPPORTED BY LIQUID-QPF) WERE NOTED
AMONGST BOTH REALMS OF GUIDANCE, BUT IT DOES SEEM THAT GLOBAL MODELS
ARE BEGINNING TO GET A GRASP ON THE KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMICS
THAT MAY BE IN PLAY, AS A SHARP CUTOFF OF SNOWFALL IS BEGINNING TO
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE STATE. LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST
TOTALS DEPICT A BROAD SWATH OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
NRN TO CNTRL AR, W/ LESSER TOTALS 1 TO 4 OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE
STATE (PRIMARILY AS SLEET). W/IN THE BROAD SWATH, A BAND OF SNOW IN
EXCESS OF 8-10 INCHES WL BE POSSIBLE (AND GREATER LOCAL AMOUNTS),
LKLY DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THE MAIN P-TYPE TRANSITION ZONE
(STRONGEST ASCENT AND PRECIP RATES).
PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL THRESHOLDS:
HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OVER THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE STATE (60-70%)
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST 6 INCHES OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE
STATE (40-60%)
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR 8 INCHES OR MORE OVER THE NRN HALF OF
THE STATE (30-40%)
HAZARDOUS COLD
LASTLY, IN ADDITION TO IMPACTFUL WINTER WX, HAZARDOUS COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WL ACCOMPANY THIS EVENT, W/ THE COLDEST
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THRU MONDAY MORNINGS. LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WL BE COMMON ACROSS THE STATE W/
WIND CHILLS REACHING NEGATIVE VALUES THRU THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO BE CONSIDERED THAT IS NOT WELL REPRESENTED IN THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-ZERO AIR
TEMPERATURES WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWPACK EXISTS IN THE WAKE OF
WINTER PRECIP. MORE DETAILS ON HAZARDOUS COLD WL BE AVAILABLE AS THE
WINTER WX FORECAST IS DIALED IN, BUT HAZARDOUS AND IMPACTFUL
CONDITIONS WL NOT CEASE AFTER WINTER PRECIP.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE FAVORING THE EARLY HALF OF THE
PERIOD, AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. SOME PERIODIC
LLWS MAY BE IN PLAY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH
THIS FORECAST WILL BE MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR (FAVORING THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS) CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
DUE TO THE SHOWERY ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AS MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK
FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE THE RAINFALL ENDS. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS
LINGERING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS IS POSSIBLE LATE INTO THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD,
FAVORING SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND VEERING TO
THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 54 28 48 26 / 70 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 54 37 52 33 / 100 20 20 30
HARRISON AR 52 26 48 22 / 10 0 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 56 32 51 31 / 90 0 10 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 54 31 50 30 / 90 0 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 54 39 53 36 / 90 20 20 30
MOUNT IDA AR 57 30 52 30 / 80 0 10 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 52 25 48 22 / 20 0 0 10
NEWPORT AR 52 28 47 27 / 80 0 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 53 34 51 32 / 90 10 20 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 55 27 52 29 / 60 0 0 10
SEARCY AR 53 27 49 26 / 80 0 10 20
STUTTGART AR 52 33 49 31 / 90 0 10 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-
062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-
221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...77
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page