612
FXUS64 KLZK 221717
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1117 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 117 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
-COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY, WITH ABNORMALLY
DRY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED WINDS RESULTING IN SOME ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
-WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS, WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN
-A TRANSITION TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FAVORED LATE IN THE WEEK,
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
CLEAR SKIES ARE DOMINATING OVER THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS STILL IN PLACE, THUS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS 20-30 MPH FOR MOST
AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOME AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
TO WESTERN ARKANSAS, AS DRIER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S THIS AFTERNOON, ANY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN AT BAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY,
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD, CONTINUING NORTHERLY FLOW.
WINDS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER AS THE HIGH CENTER NEAR THE REGION.
THUS, WHILE THE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST, NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR MONDAY.
SOME POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES BEGIN TO CREEP INTO THE
REGION BY TUESDAY, AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE AMPLIFIES EAST
OF THE REGION, WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING AMPLIFYING IN RESPONSE. WHILE
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE ROCKIES, EXPECT WARMING
CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF ARCTIC ORIGIN DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OF THE
ROCKIES MID-WEEK WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH IN TERMS OF A
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND POSSIBLY WETTER OUTLOOK LATE THIS WEEK.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS MUCH BETTER ALIGNMENT, AS THERE IS SOME
CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN NOTED. AS THIS TROUGH TRAVERSES ACROSS THE
MIDWEST, THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE ENHANCED MOISTURE AXIS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL SET UP ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND EAST. THUS, WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD, THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE REGION FOR THIS EVENT AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, ANY SHIFT FURTHER WESTWARD COULD GREATLY CHANGE THE
OUTLOOK OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS IN THIS THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THEN BECOMING LIGHT
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON MONDAY
WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 23 43 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 26 52 27 65 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 19 44 26 62 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 26 52 27 64 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 26 47 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 28 48 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 25 52 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 19 42 25 62 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 24 42 25 58 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 26 46 26 62 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 24 51 27 64 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 22 44 23 61 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 26 44 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...76
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