860
FXUS64 KLZK 241715
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1215 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 118 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
-NEAR-NORMAL TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
-NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
-LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND DRYING FUELS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DAILY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
-LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR SOME RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN HALLOWEEN
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
PERSISTENCE FORECAST PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THRU
THE WEEK AHEAD AS UPPER RIDGING AND ASCTD SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE
ACRS THE CNTRL US. EXPECT NEAR-NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS
TO PREVAIL OVER AR, W/ AN INTERMITTENT PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPS TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK, AND A WARMING TREND RESUMING BY MID-WEEK.
THRU MOST OF THE CURRENT FCST PD, NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED, THOUGH WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES BY
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NOVEMBER.
DAILY FIRE CONCERNS WILL PERSIST, FOSTERED BY ANTECEDENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, A LACK OF FORECAST RAINFALL, AND DRYING GROUND FUELS
(NOTED BY FCST ERC VALUES >90TH PERCENTILE OVER PORTIONS OF SRN AR).
CONCERNING THE HALLOWEEN WEEKEND FORECAST, THERE ARE STILL
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES AMONGST GLOBAL GUIDANCE SOLNS, PARTICULARLY
W/ THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. LATEST GFS GUIDANCE
FAVORS MORE ORGANIZED SWRLY H500 FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT
FRI INTO SAT, W/ NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EJECTING ACRS THE OZARK
PLATEAU. MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LVL MOISTURE WOULD RESULT AS WELL,
YIELDING HIGHER CHC POPS AND ASCTD QPF OVER MUCH OF THE STATE FM SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN.
ON THE OTHER END, ECMWF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LESSER TO NO
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK, AS MORE ORGANIZED AND
AMPLIFIED H500 FLOW STAYS DISPLACED TO THE NW ACRS THE NRN TO CNTRL
PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, A STRONGER CDFRNT
THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY PROGGED TO MOVE THRU DURING HALLOWEEN WEEKEND
HAS LAGGED SIGNIFICANTLY TO MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST RANGES,
LKLY OWING TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AND VARIABILITY IN UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT.
TAKING A LOOK AT ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING SOLNS FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ALSO OFFERS A SIMILAR SCENARIO DILEMMA, W/ THE HIGHEST WEIGHTED
SOLNS INCLUDING STRONGER H500 TROUGHING DISPLACED TO THE NW (LESSER
POPS AND QPF LOCALLY), OR STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED SWRLY FLOW
OVER THE SRN PLAINS (HIGHER POPS AND QPF LOCALLY). CURRENT ENSEMBLE
MEAN GUIDANCE IS ALSO NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC, W/ 24 HOUR MEAN QPF
RANGING FM ONE QUARTER INCH TO NEAR ONE INCH THRU NEXT SAT TO SUN,
AND PROBABILISTIC EXCEEDANCE OF ONE INCH LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. WL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IN THE EXTENDED TERM
AS MODEL GUIDANCE REACHES A CONSENSUS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL SITES OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD OF MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERALL OUT OF THE EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 50 78 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 47 80 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 51 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 50 80 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 52 80 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 50 79 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 47 79 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 50 77 51 75 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 51 79 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 48 80 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 51 79 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 49 79 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 51 80 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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