221
FXUS64 KLZK 141831
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1231 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 112 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
-THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, BUT THE FLOODING THREAT
REMAINS LOW.
-WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
-DRYING OUT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD A PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGES PUSHES OFF TOWARDS THE EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE STATE LATER TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LIKELY. MUCH OF THE STATE CAN EXPECT MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES LIKELY. WITH
THAT SAID, LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4+ INCHES OF RAIN CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS MUCH OF
THE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE STATE INTO LA/MS
BUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE.
CALMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TRANSITION TO MAINLY
MVFR/IFR AS LOWER CIGS AND REDUCED VIS OVERSPREAD ALL SITES.
SCATTERED SHRA SHOULD BECOME RA LATER THIS AFTERNOON, EVENING,
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN FROM NW TO E
NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE SUN. LATE IN THE PERIOD, WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME
NW AT 10-25KTS AS THE PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 51 61 42 65 / 100 50 0 0
CAMDEN AR 56 67 44 69 / 100 50 0 0
HARRISON AR 48 59 41 69 / 90 20 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 55 65 43 67 / 100 40 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 55 63 43 66 / 100 50 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 60 65 47 69 / 100 70 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 53 65 42 68 / 100 30 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 48 60 39 67 / 100 20 0 0
NEWPORT AR 53 59 43 62 / 100 60 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 56 63 44 66 / 100 70 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 53 65 42 69 / 100 20 0 0
SEARCY AR 51 61 40 65 / 100 50 0 0
STUTTGART AR 56 60 45 63 / 100 70 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70
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