373
FXUS64 KLZK 021142 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
642 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT )
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
NOT MANY CHANGES TO ADVERTISE THRU THE SHORT TERM PD... OVERALL, A
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN IS FCST, W/ THE INFLUENCES OF GREAT LAKES SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED UPPER-LVL FLOW KEEPING ANY
CHCS FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL AT A MINIMUM.
TODAY, THE FA WL STAY ON THE S/WRN PERIPHERY OF GREAT LAKES SFC HIGH
PRESSURE, KEEPING WEAK N/WRLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. DESPITE N/WRLY WINDS, TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS. LOW CHC POPS VIA DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE FCST THIS AFTERNOON, W/ THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE
ACROSS NRN AR, HOWEVER MOST GUIDANCE REMAINS PESSIMISTIC ON ANY
WIDESPREAD RAIN POTENTIAL THRU THIS EVENING.
SAT, THE INFLUENCE OF GREAT LAKES SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FOR THE FA, AS A BACKDOOR CDFRNT IS PROGGED TO
ENTER N/ERN AR SOMETIME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THE PRIMARY
INFLUENCE WL RESIDE IN SFC DEWPOINTS. FCST VALUES SUGGEST N/ERN AR
COULD SEE DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE MID-50S SAT AFTERNOON AS STRONGER
N/ERLY WINDS INDUCE MODEST MIXING. THE FOCUS FOR POPS WL SHIFT TO
THE WRN PORTION OF AR THRU THE DAY SAT. COVG OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCR OVER WRN AR SAT MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON,
OFF OF WHAT MAY BE A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX/MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN CNTRL OK ON FRI. LOCAL MESOSCALE
CONVERGENCE WL ALSO LKLY BE ENHANCED BY THE PASSING BACKDOOR CDFRNT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WL BE SEEN ACROSS WRN AR WHERE RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER ARE PROMINENT... SHOULD SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP AS
FCST... WHILE THE REMAINDER OF CNTRL AND ERN AR WL SEE MORE SEASONAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS ON SAT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION LOOK TO DECREASE
STARTING SUN...WITH MAINLY SWRN SECTIONS SEEING SOME SMALL CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. SLIGHTLY DRIER MORE STABLE AIR
WILL KEEP ATTEMPTING TO FILTER INTO THE STATE FROM THE NE FROM WEAK
NERLY SFC FLOW THROUGH TUE. BY WED...THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIVE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT NRLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING A NEW FRONT FROM THE NE...SW INTO THE STATE
LATER IN THE FORECAST...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF DRIER AIR
INTO THE STATE AS A RESULT. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE
HOWEVER...SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA MAY BE SEEN. OVERALL
THOUGH...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR...AND NO MAJOR FORCING
MECHANISMS EXPECTED.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S
TO MID 90S...THOUGH SOME UPPER 90S COULD BE SEEN THROUGH TUE. THE
NRLY FLOW ALOFT AND NEW FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS LATER IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
HIGH PRESSURE WL CONT ACROSS THE FA THRU THE PD. EXPECT SCT
CU TO DEVELOP ON FRI W/ AFTERNOON ISOLATED TS POSSIBLE... OPTED TO
NOT INCLUDED MENTIONS OF VCTS FOR THE 12Z PD GIVEN CONSISTENT LOW
CONFIDENCE OF IMPACTS AT ANY TERMINALS, OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WL PREVAIL.
/72/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 91 66 93 65 / 20 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 89 68 90 66 / 10 10 30 10
HARRISON AR 86 64 88 62 / 30 10 30 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 91 68 92 66 / 10 10 40 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 92 71 94 68 / 10 10 20 10
MONTICELLO AR 92 69 93 68 / 10 10 20 10
MOUNT IDA AR 90 65 89 62 / 10 10 50 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 64 90 63 / 30 10 20 0
NEWPORT AR 90 69 94 68 / 20 10 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 91 69 92 67 / 10 10 20 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 91 67 92 65 / 20 10 30 10
SEARCY AR 92 68 93 66 / 20 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 91 70 93 68 / 10 10 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...72
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