269
FXUS64 KLZK 022332 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
-DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL PRECEDE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS HAS LEAD TO DRY AND
PLEASANT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AND STATE. SATELLITE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ONLY SHOWS SOME DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE STATE ARE IN THE 60S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND, BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE PATTERN
BECOMING ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.
SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH TODAY INTO SUNDAY AND ENTER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES VARY ON TIMING ON THE LOW COMING ASHORE ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE STATE
PROMOTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, MULTIPLE LOBES OF ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PROVINCES OF
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY,
THEN THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST US BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROMOTE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA BRINGING THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WORK WEEK TO THE STATE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE FOR MOST OF
TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF ARKANSAS WITHIN THE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. A LOOK AT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS ROUGHLY 1000-1500J/KG
ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50-60KTS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL OWING TO A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT, BUT A FEW
TORNADOES ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
STATE WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS. FOR THURSDAY, THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDNS ARE FCST THRU THE NEW TAF PD... DIURNAL CU WERE SEEN
DISSIPATING ON RECENT VISSAT IMGRY, AND EXPECT NWRLY WINDS TO
SUBSIDE, W/ LIGHT AND VRB WINDS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT SAT. SWRLY
WINDS WILL RESUME ON SUN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 43 76 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 45 79 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 42 77 59 80 / 0 0 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 45 78 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 46 78 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 47 78 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 44 78 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 40 77 57 81 / 0 0 10 10
NEWPORT AR 45 76 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 46 78 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 43 79 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 43 76 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 47 77 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...72
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