583
FXUS64 KLZK 010705
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
205 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
MAINLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. THE BOUNDARY
WILL RIDE THE NW FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE AS THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OF LATE CONTINUES. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY THROUGH SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN DOES DAMPEN OUT
SOMEWHAT WITH TIME.
ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON LOCAL RADARS OVER NW ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. EVEN
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS TODAY, PRECIPITATION
WILL BE SCARCE WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS JUSTIFIED WITH
MOST OF THE CWA REMAINING DRY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGING
UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE
BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
OVER THE NORTH TO NEAR 90 OVER THE SOUTH.
AFTER A DRY WEDNESDAY, THE NEXT FRONT, ALSO CAUGHT UP IN THE NW
FLOW, WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS FRONT HAS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND WILL BE LARGELY
UNNOTICED WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION AND ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
ONE FINAL FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH IN THE STATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT YOU GUESSED IT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
AVERAGE PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
SCATTERED SHRA/RA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NW AR AFFECTING
MAINLY KHRO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE THROUGH THE MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON HOWEVER COVERAGE AND
TIMING REMAIN QUESTIONABLE THUS ONLY MENTION OF PROB30S AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL BE NERLY AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS ON MON. VFR CONDS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER SOME PATCHY FG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT AND NEAR KADF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 86 62 86 62 / 10 30 30 20
CAMDEN AR 88 65 86 64 / 10 20 40 10
HARRISON AR 78 60 80 59 / 40 40 30 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 84 65 85 65 / 20 30 40 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 84 65 83 65 / 10 30 30 10
MONTICELLO AR 91 67 88 66 / 10 20 40 10
MOUNT IDA AR 84 64 84 63 / 20 40 40 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 82 60 83 60 / 30 40 30 10
NEWPORT AR 86 65 85 63 / 10 30 20 20
PINE BLUFF AR 87 65 85 65 / 10 20 30 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 84 65 86 64 / 30 30 30 10
SEARCY AR 86 64 85 62 / 10 30 30 20
STUTTGART AR 87 66 84 65 / 10 30 30 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...70
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