855
FXUS64 KLZK 041947
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
247 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO ARKANSAS BETWEEN THE
PERIOD OF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
-ON TUESDAY, NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS WILL HAVE
AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
-INTO WEDNESDAY, THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
TRANSITION INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS.
-RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A SIGNAL FOR A POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW THIS FAR
IN ADVANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A FEW DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS
STATE THIS AFTERNOON RANGES WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A FEW 80
DEGREE READINGS.
AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT, AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
WILL COMMENCE WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TONIGHT, AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WITH SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO EAST AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WITH THE LOW NEAR THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS STATE LINE. THE LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO CRANK UP LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE JET AXIS WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA WILL HAVE STEEP LAPSE
RATES, BULK SHEAR IN THE ORDER OF 40KTS, AND MU CAPE VALUES OF
600-700J/KG. HI-RES CAM MODELS EARLIER TODAY AND THIS AFTERNOON
BOTH HINT AT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WOULD
YIELD A POTENTIAL HAZARDS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MODELS
SHOW THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A THIN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THAT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE AND LARGELY DISSIPATING AROUND SUNRISE.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY TUESDAY, GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE STATE. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
1000-1500J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR OF 50-60KT AND SRH VALUES OF 250-350
M2/S2 WITH LOCALLY HIGHER POCKETS OVER 400 M2/S2. MAIN HAZARDS
WILL BE LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL DUE TO VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE HAZARDS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES WITH A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO
ALSO POSSIBLE. THE ONE CAVEAT OR SAVING GRACE IN TUESDAY'S SETUP
THAT WOULD HINDER THE OUTCOME WOULD BE IF CONVECTION HANGS AROUND
LONGER THAN EXPECTED, OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS DID NOT CLEAR
IN TIME TO ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
NONETHELESS, CAMS DO SHOW INITIAL STORM INITIATION WOULD ALLOW
STORMS TO BE DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE UPSCALE GROWTH LEADS TO A
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO TREK ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY, MODELS SHOW THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL
/SOUTHCENTRAL ARKANSAS TO START THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE CAPE VALUES IN THE
RANGE OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 45-55KTS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL TO VERY LARGE HAIL, BUT A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE STATE
ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN AS HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER
BUILDS INTO THE STATE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND STATE WIDE ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE TENNESSE VALLEY BY THURSDAY NIGHT,
THEN THE SOUTHEASTERN US BY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THURSDAY TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO AS MUCH AS 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A WEAK SIGNAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE STATE THIS WEEKEND, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS NOT THERE AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOUR ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AR AS LLJ CRANKS UP AHEAD OF
FORMATION OF A SURFACE LOW OVER NE OK. ELECTED TO INCLUDE VCTS AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IMPACTS TO TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. VFR
CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR WITH POCKETS OF VFR THROUGH TUESDAY
BETWEEN FOLLOWING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WITH ANOTHER ROUND
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE TAF CYCLE. LLWS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLLQ THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY S/SW WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 61 75 52 61 / 50 60 70 50
CAMDEN AR 63 83 63 74 / 20 20 50 80
HARRISON AR 59 74 48 59 / 60 80 60 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 63 81 57 67 / 30 50 70 50
LITTLE ROCK AR 63 79 56 66 / 30 50 70 50
MONTICELLO AR 62 82 63 75 / 20 30 50 90
MOUNT IDA AR 64 81 57 67 / 40 50 60 50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 59 72 48 59 / 70 80 60 50
NEWPORT AR 63 75 54 62 / 60 70 90 70
PINE BLUFF AR 63 81 59 70 / 30 30 60 90
RUSSELLVILLE AR 62 79 54 64 / 40 50 60 40
SEARCY AR 60 77 53 63 / 40 50 70 60
STUTTGART AR 64 79 58 65 / 30 40 70 80
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ008-017-025.
DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...76
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