162
FXUS64 KLZK 131054
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
554 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
-ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ALONG THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
BORDER.
-TEMPERATURES OVERALL ACROSS THE STATE WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK.
-INTO LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NORMAL AND
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS AS
THE TANDEM OF AN UPPER LVL RIDGE PATTERN OVER ARKANSAS AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OVERALL DRY
AND HOT CONDITIONS.
-INTO THE WEEKEND, A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE STATE WILL NEAR AND
POSSIBLY REACH THE CENTURY MARK FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND THE RETURN OF HEAT PRODUCTS OVER THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
WARRANTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
IN THE UPPER LVLS, BETWEEN TODAY (MONDAY) AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, AN ELONGATED REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS OF THE CONUS.
CONSEQUENTLY, FROM THE PLACEMENT OF THE ELONGATED REGION OF THE
UPPER LVL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION OF THE CONUS TO OVER TEXAS. THE UPPER LVL HIGH
PRESSURE FEATURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATER INTO THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND TRANSITIONING INTO A BROAD, BUT INTENSE REGION OF RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS OF THE CONUS WITH ARKANSAS ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE.
AT THE SFC, TODAY (MONDAY), A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE FIXATED
ALONG THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER WHICH WILL EQUATE TO INCREASED
POP CHANCES TO REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD POP CHANCES WILL BECOME ELEVATED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE STATE AS THE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT OVER THIS TWO-DAY PERIOD. INTO LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
ARKANSAS WHICH WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING POP CHANCES SUPPRESSED OVER
THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
EXPECT DEGRADATION TO FLIGHT CATEGORY TO BEGIN THE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BETWEEN MONDAY MORNING AND
TUESDAY MORNING. REDUCED VSBY VIA PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN TERMINALS AND MAY REDUCE FLIGHT CATEGORY TO AS
LOW AS IFR TO LIFR. LATER INTO MONDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AS THE FOG WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 90 70 89 71 / 0 0 40 60
CAMDEN AR 90 70 89 69 / 20 10 40 40
HARRISON AR 88 67 88 69 / 0 0 20 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 92 72 90 71 / 20 10 40 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 91 73 89 72 / 10 10 50 50
MONTICELLO AR 90 72 88 71 / 20 10 60 40
MOUNT IDA AR 90 71 89 70 / 20 10 30 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 68 88 70 / 0 0 20 30
NEWPORT AR 90 72 89 72 / 0 0 60 50
PINE BLUFF AR 90 71 88 70 / 10 10 60 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 93 72 91 72 / 10 10 40 40
SEARCY AR 91 71 90 71 / 0 0 60 60
STUTTGART AR 90 72 89 72 / 10 0 70 60
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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