407
FXUS64 KLZK 172253
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
453 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
-BREEZY WINDS AND LOW MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CREATE AN ENHANCED WILD
FIRE THREAT TODAY AND SUNDAY
-VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN FOR TUESDAY
MORNING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR MANY AREAS...AND WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
-FORECAST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT SOME
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL REMAINS LOW
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
SOME SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP HAVE BEEN MOVING EAST/SE ACROSS
THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA LATE ON FRI EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HRS THIS SAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES OVER NRN AR. MOST
AREAS HAVE REMAINED DRY...BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE SEEN...THOUGH
SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SLEET OR SNOW AS WELL AS THIS WAVE
PASSES OVERHEAD. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE FILTERING INTO THE STATE
BEHIND THE FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRI.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF VERY
DRY AND MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVING THIS SAT AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW UNDER THIS NEW UPPER
SHORTWAVE...BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DEWPTS WILL CRATER BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ENHANCED WILD FIRE THREAT
TODAY AS GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE SEEN WITH RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW
30 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS. SOME AREAS MAY SEE RH VALUES DIP BELOW 20
PERCENT.
WINDS WILL RELAX BY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SW OF AR. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR LOWS SUN
MORNING FOR MOST AREAS...AND WHAT WIND REMAINS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MOST AREAS. A
FEW SPOTS COULD SEE WIND CHILLS DROP TO AROUND OR BRIEFLY BELOW
ZERO.
SRLY WIND WILL RETURN AND INCREASE FOR SUN AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. THE ENHANCED WILD FIRE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE SUN AFTERNOON...WITH RH VALUES DIPPING INTO THE 15 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE. THE SRLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS SUN
AFTERNOON...BUT ANOTHER NEW FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION ON
MON...DROPPING TEMPS BACK DOWN.
FLOW ALOFT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NW AS
MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES PASS SE OVER THE REGION...BRINGING THE MULTIPLE
COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE STATE. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SEEN...AND SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
AR BY WED AHEAD OF A NEW WEAK UPPER WAVE. SRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME INCREASING MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SURGE
NORTH INTO THE STATE. AT THE SAME TIME...A NEW COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SE INTO AR AHEAD OF A NEW UPPER SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE STATE
ON WED INTO THU.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL STILL LOOKS
LIMITED AS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVING THIS FAR
NORTH BEFORE THE FRONT ISN'T VERY HIGH. THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
REMAINS UNCERTAIN ALSO...BUT WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER
TIME ON HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY BE SEEN. THERE IS ALSO SOME
QUESTION ON TEMPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALSO
COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE/LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 452 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY TO PERSIST FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD
FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS ALL SITES. A FEW
SITES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD FOR A FEW HOURS WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL LAX OVERNIGHT AND
LOSE THEIR GUSTING CONDITION. INTO LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MANY TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE SURFACE WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 16 40 22 34 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 17 46 25 47 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 12 43 20 29 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 16 44 26 42 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 18 42 26 38 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 21 44 29 44 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 15 47 25 42 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 12 43 20 29 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 17 39 23 33 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 19 43 27 41 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 15 46 24 39 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 14 41 22 35 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 18 41 26 38 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...74
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