552
FXUS64 KLZK 312355
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
655 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
-NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY
-SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WED NIGHT/THURSDAY
-STORMS POSSIBLE SAT/SAT NIGHT, INCLUDING SOME STRONG/SEVERE
-COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
MAIN STORY THRU THE IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM REMAINS WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE FA THRU THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS. AREA TEMPS
IN THE MID 80S, OR APPROXIMATELY 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE-AVERAGE, ARE
EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS, W/ SOME LOCATIONS NEARING DAILY RECORD
HIGHS. IN ADDITION TO SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS, GUSTY SRLY WINDS WL
PREVAIL AHEAD OF PERSISTENT LEE SFC CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLE. AFTN WINDS OF 15-20 KTS, AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS WL
BE POSSIBLE THRU THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BEYOND THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
TRENDS IN QPF CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE FA, W/ WIDESPREAD
TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES THRU SUN NIGHT.
WED/THURS WL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE AS AN H500
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY TRAVERSE THROUGH MEAN FLOW, EJECTING
OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU AND PIVOTING INTO THE MIDWEST VCTY WED
NIGHT THRU THURS. AFOREMENTIONED SFC CYCLONIC FLOW WL COME INTO
PHASE W/ THE UPPER SHORTWAVE, AND QUICKLY ADVANCE NEWRD, W/ ASCTD
PRECIP FM THIS SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT WED AND INTO
THURS.
SOME OVERLAP OF MARGINAL FCST BUOYANCY (GENERALLY <1000 J/KG) AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 KTS MAY SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY, AND AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE
STORMS THURS, BUT A MORE WIDESPREAD RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
FRI, A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED AS THE REGION FALLS B/W
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS. SOME ISOLATED WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SHOWERS
MAY RESULT THRU THE DAY, BUT ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, NEW LEE SFC CYCLONIC FLOW
WL EXTEND ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS, ACCOMPANIED BY A HIGH-AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT. THRU THE DAY FRI AND INTO SAT, THESE TWO
FEATURES WL COME INTO PHASE, AND QUICKLY EJECT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TRAILING SYNOPTIC CDFRNT WL EXTEND SW INTO THE SRN
CNTRL US BY SAT MRNG, AND WL QUICKLY SWEEP THRU THE REGION,
DRIVING ANOTHER RD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FA.
SIMILAR TO THURS, MARGINAL OVERLAP OF BUOYANCY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CDFRNT, W/ STRONGER SHEAR
DISPLACED TO THE WNW UNDER THE PRIMARY JET AXIS. ONCE AGAIN, AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFRNT PASSAGE, BUT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. A MAJORITY OF THE QPF IN THE 7 DAY FORECAST IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR W/ THIS SYSTEM, W/ B/W ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
FALLING ACRS AR, AND GREATER TOTALS FAVORED OVER WRN TO NWRN AR.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRNT, CONDNS LOOK TO RESET TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL, INCLUDING LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BROAD
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL EXTEND OVER THE CNTRL CONUS, W/ H500 RIDGING
AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN US, PROMOTING DRIER WEATHER CONDNS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOME MVFR CEILINGS HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
OF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING, PARTICULARLY KLLQ. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, WITH LINGERING
GUSTINESS SUBSIDING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND REDEVELOPING
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCT TO BKN
SKIES WILL PREVAIL, WITH CEILINGS LIFTING AOA 5 KFT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 64 84 67 79 / 10 10 10 80
CAMDEN AR 62 86 66 81 / 0 10 10 60
HARRISON AR 64 83 66 79 / 10 20 40 80
HOT SPRINGS AR 62 85 65 79 / 0 10 20 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 64 85 67 80 / 0 10 10 70
MONTICELLO AR 64 85 67 81 / 0 10 10 60
MOUNT IDA AR 62 84 64 79 / 0 10 30 80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 63 84 66 79 / 10 10 20 80
NEWPORT AR 65 84 68 81 / 10 10 10 80
PINE BLUFF AR 63 86 66 81 / 0 10 10 60
RUSSELLVILLE AR 62 86 67 81 / 0 10 30 80
SEARCY AR 62 86 65 80 / 0 10 10 70
STUTTGART AR 64 84 67 81 / 10 10 10 70
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...77
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