879
FXUS64 KLZK 221959
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
159 PM CST WED JAN 22 2020
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
RAIN, SLEET, SNOW, AND FREEZING RAIN WERE ALL NOTED THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE AS PRECIPITATION MOVED EASTWARD
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. WHILE ACCUMULATION HAS REMAINED
GENERALLY LIGHT DUE TO ERODING DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS,
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS HAVE AIDED IN WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA. THIS, COUPLED WITH WARMER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAS
ALLOWED FOR ALL WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION TO
INCREASE AS ANOTHER VORT MAX SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST, INTENSIFYING AS IT DOES SO. WHILE THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN, CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LESS, AS WARMER AIR IN PLACE PREVAILS. HOWEVER, SOME
LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST, COULD SEE SOME SLEET, SNOW, AND FREEZING RAIN
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE,
ADDITIONAL SLEET AND SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH, AND ADDITIONAL ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY BELOW A
TENTH OF AN INCH.
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT THE STATE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE EASTWARD. HOWEVER, EXPECT SOME
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, WHICH COULD RESULT
IN SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT WITH THIS ACTIVITY, AND REMAIN BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY STAY ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER A
FEW LOCATIONS COULD TOUCH FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY DIP BELOW. THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW, ANTICIPATE A WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE, WITH OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST. FRIDAY WILL ALSO SEE A WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE, AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
ARKANSAS.
LONG TERM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS ON TAP FOR THE PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF
STRONG RIDGES AND TROUGHS SET TO AFFECT ARKANSAS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS STATES
BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NATURAL STATE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS.
MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THE TROUGH SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS A MASSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE SECTION OF
THE US PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO
THE SOUTHEAST US. THE NEXT TROUGH TO AFFECT ARKANSAS WILL FOLLOW ON
THE HEELS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT EXITS TO THE EAST WITH
WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO RISE TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 34 39 34 44 / 90 90 20 10
CAMDEN AR 36 47 36 51 / 90 80 10 0
HARRISON AR 34 41 31 39 / 90 70 30 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 35 44 35 47 / 90 80 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 35 42 35 47 / 90 90 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 37 45 37 50 / 80 90 20 0
MOUNT IDA AR 36 45 34 46 / 90 70 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 34 39 33 40 / 90 80 30 10
NEWPORT AR 35 40 34 43 / 80 90 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 36 43 36 49 / 80 90 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 34 42 34 45 / 90 70 10 10
SEARCY AR 34 40 34 46 / 80 90 20 10
STUTTGART AR 36 42 35 47 / 80 90 20 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE-VAN BUREN.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CONWAY-
LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SCOTT-YELL.
SHORT TERM...CROSS / LONG TERM...19
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page