417
FXUS64 KLZK 130718
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
218 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF EASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
THROUGH 8 PM.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI
BORDER.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT
WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
OVERALL, QUIET CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING AS
THE AREA IS UNDER BROAD FLAT RIDGING. UPPER FLOW REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL
AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
EARLY THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM WITH READINGS CURRENTLY
IN THE 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE.
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN ILL DEFINED BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF ARKANSAS WITH GUIDANCE MOVING IT FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN EXCESS OF 105
DEGREES FOR PARTS OF EASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. AS SUCH A
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
THE HEAT ADVISORY ONLY GOES AS FAR NORTH AS JACKSON/INDEPENDENCE
COUNTIES AS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CAMS GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CLUSTER OVER
THE PAST FEW RUNS BUT THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ITS
DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS FRIDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER WESTERN
ARKANSAS AND COULD BE A FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING
PEAK HEATING.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH ARKANSAS
AT OR SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG
STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT PRIMARILY ALONG THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI
BORDER WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE ITS HIGHEST. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
SOME HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. THE SEVERE THREAT DOES
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE STATE AND STALLS OUT ALONG THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
WITH BROAD TROUGHING COVERING THE REGION, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ON MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS ONCE AGAIN, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE WHILE
THE NORTH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY. AFTER A GENERALLY DRY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON
THURSDAY.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S/MID 90S ARE EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES DO COOL OFF
ACROSS THE NORTH AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS ON
SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ON MONDAY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE "COOL
DOWN" IS SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE 80S/90S TO
CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN NEXT
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE. A COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL BE
ENTERING NORTHERN ARKANSAS AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE TAF CYCLE AND
SOME CONVECTION HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR KHRO AND KBPK BUT THE
MAIN IMPACTS WILL OCCUR BEYOND THIS SAT TO TAFS. OTHERWISE, WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LIGHT, AVERAGING UNDER 10 KNOTS, AND GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 91 73 82 62 / 50 50 30 10
CAMDEN AR 94 77 88 66 / 10 10 70 90
HARRISON AR 86 68 76 58 / 60 90 30 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 92 76 84 65 / 20 40 80 60
LITTLE ROCK AR 92 76 84 65 / 30 40 70 50
MONTICELLO AR 94 78 89 68 / 20 10 70 80
MOUNT IDA AR 90 76 82 64 / 10 40 70 60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 86 70 77 59 / 70 80 20 0
NEWPORT AR 92 74 84 64 / 30 60 40 10
PINE BLUFF AR 93 77 86 66 / 20 30 70 70
RUSSELLVILLE AR 92 75 83 65 / 40 60 50 40
SEARCY AR 93 74 85 64 / 30 50 40 30
STUTTGART AR 93 77 85 67 / 30 40 70 50
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ARZ016-025-033-034-045>047-056-057-064-065-069.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...56
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