159  
FXUS64 KLZK 211133 AAA  
AFDLZK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
633 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
   
UPDATED
 
 
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL  
TERMINALS. NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.  
THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY  
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
(ISSUED 349 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018)  
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT  
 
EARLY MORNING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT HIGH  
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS, ELSEWHERE,  
CLEAR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED  
DRIER AIR WAS ADVECTING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE  
STATE AS EVIDENT OF QUICKLY FALLING DEW POINTS. SOME GUSTY WINDS  
WERE ALSO OBSERVED ACROSS NE AR. THE REMAINING HIGH CLOUDS WILL  
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SKY CONDITIONS  
BECOMING CLEAR STATEWIDE.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FALLING AS DRY AIR MOVES IN DURING THE  
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S  
ACROSS THE NORTH, AROUND 40 DEGREES CENTRAL, AND MID 40S ACROSS  
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS  
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AR WHERE FROST MAY DEVELOP AND  
DAMAGE OR KILL SENSITIVE PLANTS LEFT UNCOVERED. COLD MORNING LOWS  
WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR ON MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND A FEW DEGREES  
COOLER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR. FROST MAY DEVELOP ONCE  
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL  
THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE NATURAL STATE. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER  
60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL WARM SLIGHTLY WITH LOWER TO  
MID 60S EXPECTED. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S.  
 
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY  
 
ON TUESDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND  
DISSIPATE. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT, AS THERE  
WILL NOT BE MUCH TIME FOR ANY DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE RETURN. UPPER  
RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH A  
SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING. AT THE SAME TIME, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN  
THE GULF OF MEXICO ENHANCING UPLIFT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL  
BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.  
 
THE SYSTEMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT  
THE SAME TIME, THE NORTH AMERICAN LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY,  
WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND FAIRLY  
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY. THIS WILL ACT TO PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION  
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH MORE RAIN CHANCES.  
 
THROUGH THE PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE  
(ESPECIALLY MAXIMUMS) DUE TO A COMBINATION OF PREDOMINANT NORTHEAST/  
EASTERLY WIND FLOW, DECREASING SUN ANGLE, AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.  
 

 
   
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-  
CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-LAWRENCE-MARION-NEWTON-  
RANDOLPH-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.  
 

 
 

 
 
AVIATION...JONES  
 
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