666
FXUS64 KLZK 230556
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1156 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
STATE TO NEAR PRE-DAWN HOURS, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING NEAR
AND BEYOND SUNRISE.
- HIGH-CONFIDENCE OF HIGH-IMPACT WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- ALL WINTER PRECIP TYPES ARE EXPECTED, WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE, SNOW-SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, AND
IMPACTFUL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
- HAZARDOUS COLD CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY WINTER WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SUB-ZERO MINIMUM
WIND CHILL VALUES POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARMING...AND
UPGRADE THE EXTREME COLD WATCH TO A WARNING AS WELL.
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
IN AMOUNTS. GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN ACROSS NRN/NWRN
SECTIONS...WITH GREATEST ICE AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR SOUTH/SERN
SECTIONS. BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS WILL BE PRIMARILY SLEET
ACCUMULATION...WITH SLEET AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 4 INCHES
POTENTIALLY.
WHILE COLD WEATHER ADV LEVELS OF COLD WILL BE SEEN IN TEMPS/WIND
CHILLS SAT AND SUN...THE COLDEST CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN SUN NIGHT
/MON MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO AND INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...AND SOME WIND WILL REMAIN. WILL CHILL VALUES WILL DROP AS
LOW AS 10 TO 20 DEG BELOW ZERO FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE...AND
0 TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS SRN SECTIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
THROUGH TODAY
LATEST NIGHT-FOG SATELLITE IMGRY SHOWED THE SERN HALF OF THE STATE
UNDER FOGGY CONDNS, W/ SFC OBS INDICATING <1 MILE VISIBILITIES.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THRU NEAR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, W/ AREA
VISIBILITIES IMPROVING BY SUNRISE AS SFC WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.
FOR THURS, A DRY AND COOL DAY IS ON DECK FOR THE FA AS A REGION OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EWRD OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU, W/ NERLY WINDS
ENSUING.
WINTER WEATHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE POINTS
THERE IS REASONABLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF HIGH IMPACT WINTER WX OVER
MOST OF AR FROM FRI NIGHT THRU SUN MRNG, INCLUDING HEAVY MIXED
WINTER P-TYPES OVER CNTRL TO SRN AR.
A 24 HOUR RECAP OF FORECAST TRENDS INCLUDES:
- A WARMING TREND IN THE H850-H700 LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FORECAST WINTER PRECIP AMOUNTS
- THE WARMING TREND ALOFT OVER CNTRL AR HAS LED TO A NWRD SHIFT OF
THE PRIMARY SNOWFALL FOOTPRINT FURTHER OVER NRN AR AND THE OZARK
PLATEAU
- REDUCED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND GREATER SLEET POTENTIAL OVER CNTRL AR
- LIQUID-QPF AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE W/ THIS SYSTEM, EQUATING
TO GREATER POSSIBLE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/ICE TOTALS
WINTER WEATHER FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES
BASED ON THE 24 HOUR FORECAST TRENDS LIST, THE UNCERTAINTIES LIST IS
JUST ABOUT THE SAME, AND THE MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE GUIDANCE AT 48-60
HOURS ARE NOT NECESSARILY UNHEARD OF. THAT BEING SAID, A CLEAR
DIVERGENCE IN GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS HAS BEEN NOTED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS, W/ ECMWF SOLNS SUGGESTING AND FAVORING A
MORE SEVERE FREEZING RAIN/ICE SCENARIO, WHILE GFS SOLNS ARE SETTLING
INTO MORE MIXED PRECIP AND HEAVY SLEET FOR THE CNTRL TO SRN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, THESE DIFFERENCES CAN MOSTLY BE ATTRIBUTED TO
MODEL SCHEMES AND KNOWN LIMITATIONS W/ HYDROMETEOR CLASSIFICATIONS.
AS OF NOW, THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FCST FAVORS A MIDDLE GROUND
SCENARIO, WHERE A WARM LAYER ALOFT WL EXTEND INTO AT LEAST CNTRL AR,
TO PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. WARM LAYER MAX TEMPS PER
THE GFS HAVE BEEN RANGING FROM +1-2C, RESULTING IN A SHALLOWER
MELTING LAYER, WHILE ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ADVERTISING +2-4C MAX
MELTING LAYER TEMPS, RESULTING IN A DEEPER MELTING LAYER. AS WE MOVE
INTO SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE, REACHING A CONSENSUS ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF THIS WARM LAYER WL GREATLY AID WITH REFINING THE AXES
OF WINTER P-TYPES OVER THE FA, AND OVERALL FORECAST AMOUNTS.
FREEZING RAIN
GIVEN THE MIDDLE-GROUND APPROACH IN THE LATEST FORECAST, IMPACTFUL
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACRS FAR SRN AR, W/ AT LEAST A
QUARTER INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE TO JUST SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ACRS FAR SRN AR AND THE ARKLAMISS REGION
FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR GREATER. DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE AND
VEGETATION, AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY W/ JUST FORECAST VERIFYING
ICE ACCRUALS, AND MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARISING UNDER FORECAST
EXCEEDING AMOUNTS.
PROBABILISTIC FREEZING RAIN THRESHOLDS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE STATE (60-70%)
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION OVER THE ARKLAMISS BORDER REGION (40-50%)
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR ONE INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER THE
ARKLAMISS BORDER REGION (30-40%)
SNOWFALL
AFOREMENTIONED TRENDS AND UNCERTAINTIES FOR SNOWFALL HAVE RESULTED
IN A MUCH DIFFERENT SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE
INCREASING POSSIBILITY FOR MORE MIXED PRECIP ACROSS CNTRL AR, THE
SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOW AMOUNTS HAS SHIFTED NWRD, W/ LESSER OVERALL
SNOW TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE METRO AREA AND SWRD. INTERMITTENT
PERIODS OF PRIMARILY SNOW WL BE POSSIBLE THRU THE EVENT, W/ SLEET
EXPECTED OTHERWISE.
FOR THOSE IN NRN AR, SNOWFALL REMAINS THE STATUS QUO, W/ ONLY SOME
INTERMITTENT MIXED PRECIP EXPECTED. OFFICIAL FORECAST TOTALS HAVE
NOT DIFFERED TOO MUCH, BUT POSSIBLE HIGHER-END TOTALS ARE TRENDING
UPWARDS W/ THE NWRD SHIFT IN HIGHER LIQUID-QPF, AND POTENTIAL FOR
BANDING AND HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES.
THAT BEING SAID, THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS A SWATH OF 4-8
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF AR, WHERE
GREATER TOTALS ATTRIBUTED TO MAINLY SNOW ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF I-40.
HIGHER-END AND EXCEEDANCE SNOWFALL OF 8-10 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL, AND MAINLY REFLECTED BY THE LOCATION OF WHERE
BANDING DEVELOPS.
THE CENTRAL THIRD OF AR INCLUDING THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD TO
THE LATERAL EXTENT OF THE OUACHITAS COULD SEE BETWEEN 3-5 INCHES OF
SNOW AND SLEET IN TOTAL, W/ MOST OF THIS OCCURRING AS SLEET. ACROSS
FAR SRN AR, MAINLY SLEET IS EXPECTED, W/ SLEET TOTALS NEAR 1-2
INCHES POSSIBLE.
PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL THRESHOLDS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OVER THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
STATE (60-70%)
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST 6 INCHES OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE
STATE (40-60%)
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR 8 INCHES OR MORE OVER NRN AR (30-40%)
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR 10 INCHES OR MORE OVER NRN AR (<20%) W/ NO
DISCERNIBLE PATTERNS EVIDENT IN PROBABILISTIC DATA
HAZARDOUS COLD
LASTLY, IN ADDITION TO IMPACTFUL WINTER WX, HAZARDOUS COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WL ACCOMPANY THIS EVENT, W/ THE COLDEST
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THRU MONDAY MORNINGS. LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WL BE COMMON ACROSS THE STATE W/
WIND CHILLS REACHING NEGATIVE VALUES THRU THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO BE CONSIDERED THAT IS NOT WELL REPRESENTED IN THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-ZERO AIR
TEMPERATURES WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWPACK EXISTS IN THE WAKE OF
WINTER PRECIP. MORE DETAILS ON HAZARDOUS COLD WL BE AVAILABLE AS THE
WINTER WX FORECAST IS DIALED IN, BUT HAZARDOUS AND IMPACTFUL
CONDITIONS WL NOT CEASE AFTER WINTER PRECIP.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TERMINALS IS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT, BUT GENERALLY CEILINGS IN THIS REGION ANTICIPATED TO
HOVER IN THE 4-6 KFT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATE
IN THE PERIOD, PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND LOWERING CEILINGS
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST, BUT KEPT VCSH PREVAILAING AFTER 00Z
FOR TIME BEING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 48 27 35 10 / 0 0 0 100
CAMDEN AR 60 36 45 17 / 0 0 30 80
HARRISON AR 48 23 31 8 / 0 0 10 100
HOT SPRINGS AR 54 33 41 13 / 0 0 20 100
LITTLE ROCK AR 52 32 40 13 / 0 0 20 100
MONTICELLO AR 57 39 46 22 / 0 0 20 80
MOUNT IDA AR 53 33 43 14 / 0 0 30 100
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 47 23 32 7 / 0 0 10 100
NEWPORT AR 45 28 33 11 / 0 0 0 90
PINE BLUFF AR 52 35 42 15 / 0 0 20 90
RUSSELLVILLE AR 54 32 40 14 / 0 0 10 100
SEARCY AR 48 28 38 10 / 0 0 10 100
STUTTGART AR 52 34 38 14 / 0 0 10 90
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-
052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-
213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...77
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page