845
FXUS64 KLZK 211712
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1112 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
-LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PRECEDE DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
-MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION IS PROMOTING SOME SHOWERY
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH ACROSS ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. COVERAGE
OF THESE SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LESSEN GOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MOST ACTIVITY FINISHED BY DAYBREAK. SKIES
WILL BE CLEARING GOING THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, WITH SOME GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES TODAY, WITH READINGS TOWARDS NORMAL
OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S
AND 30S. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE COLDEST
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT (UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S) AND
MONDAY. DAILY AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS OUT OF GENERALLY THE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. SOME PERIODIC ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE WINDIEST DAYS (PEAKING
SUNDAY), AS WIDESPREAD MINIMUM RH'S HOVER IN THE 20S AND 30S
PERCENT THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP ANY
CONCERNS AT BAY.
SOME POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES BEGIN TO CREEP INTO THE
REGION BY TUESDAY, AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE AMPLIFIES EAST
OF THE REGION, WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING AMPLIFYING IN RESPONSE. WHILE
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE ROCKIES, EXPECT WARMING
CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF ARCTIC ORIGIN DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OF THE
ROCKIES MID-WEEK WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH IN TERMS OF A
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND POSSIBLY WETTER OUTLOOK LATE NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS POINT, ENSEMBLES SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN REGARDS TO
HOW AMPLIFIED THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME AND, IN TURN, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD. THE PATH OF AMPLIFICATION WILL
ALSO DICTATE WHETHER THE FAVORED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT IS AN ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY THAT, EVEN IF IT COMES TO
FRUITION, MAY NOT GUARANTEE THE STATE COULD SEE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, COOLER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO MID-WEEK ARE FAVORED FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS OVER 20KT ARE EXPECTED
LATE IN THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 52 28 46 22 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 59 33 54 27 / 10 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 49 26 42 19 / 10 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 58 33 51 27 / 10 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 54 32 51 27 / 10 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 59 35 53 29 / 20 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 60 31 51 25 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 50 25 44 19 / 10 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 49 30 45 24 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 55 32 52 26 / 10 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 58 31 51 24 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 52 28 49 22 / 10 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 52 31 49 26 / 10 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...55
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