948
FXUS64 KLZK 221148
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
648 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE LATER TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, LIMITED TO NO MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT,
THEREFORE, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO. IT IS IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT, CONTINUING THOSE CALM
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE.
DUE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS IN BOTH PERIODS, IT
GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY WORSEN
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF OCTOBER.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
SLIGHTLY COOLING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE, THOUGH HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF ARKANSAS, 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS
TIME, A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN IS FORECAST. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT, IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER
50S, WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS
SECOND FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE, WITH VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THOUGH, LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE NOT
QUITE IN AGREEMENT SO WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM EVOLVES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL LIKELY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
OUT OF THE S/SE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 83 58 87 54 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 85 55 89 56 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 84 60 85 54 / 10 0 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 86 57 91 60 / 0 0 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 86 60 90 60 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 86 57 89 59 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 86 56 91 58 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 83 58 85 54 / 10 0 0 10
NEWPORT AR 82 57 87 56 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 85 57 89 57 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 86 57 91 59 / 0 0 0 10
SEARCY AR 85 55 88 56 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 84 57 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...73
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