530
FXUS64 KLZK 280906
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
306 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
+ SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH VERY EARLY SUNDAY, WINTER WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
+ COLDER AIR RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME LIGHT WINTER WEATHER CAN NOT
BE DISCOUNTED MONDAY BUT OVERALL IMPACTS APPEAR MINIMAL AT
THIS TIME.
+ GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL POSSIBILITY
AND PLACEMENT OF WINTER WEATHER.
+ TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
BELOW AVERAGE EVEN FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
NOT MANY VALUE ADDED CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE
THIS MORNING AS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NOTED VERSUS THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT. OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A COUPLE
OF STORM SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF AT THE
VERY LEAST, A TASTE OF SOME WINTER WEATHER.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION COURTESY OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH THE MAJORITY OF OBSERVATION
PLATFORMS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. INCREASING CLOUDS COVER IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. SURFACE REFLECTION, OVER SE COLORADO THIS
EVENING, WILL LIFT TO THE NE AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
COME SUNDAY MORNING.
WARM NOSE STILL EVIDENT AND WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, ONLY
LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE. IT APPEARS THAT
TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
TOUCH COOLER VERSUS THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
LATE NOVEMBER. QPF NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH UPWARDS ON A INCH
POSSIBLE FROM THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT.
AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE LIFTS TO THE NE, IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE STATE WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOLLOWING ITS
PASSAGE. THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE ONCE THE BEST MOISTURE EXITS
THE REGION BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET
OUT OF THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S OVER THE SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PROVIDE A DRY
SUNDAY BUT ALSO KEEP A NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE AS
IT SLIDES TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH WILL BE
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TURNING THE UPPER FLOW AROUND TO
THE SW. A FAIRLY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL THROW MOISTURE INTO THE COLD AIR MASS OVER THE STATE WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTER WEATHER MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
HOLDING IN THE 30S.
MODELS REMAIN WIDELY INCONSISTENT CONCERNING THE TIMING, INTENSITY
AND PLACEMENT OF ANY POTENTIAL WEATHER. CURRENT THINKING IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTH. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH ITS ZR AND HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. REGARDLESS, POPS ARE ONLY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AND QPF IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH WHERE THE COLDEST AIR WILL RESIDE WITH UP TO A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION, NO SIGNIFICANT
PERIOD OF COLD AIR WILL PROCEED THIS SYSTEM AND SOIL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE 40S WHICH WILL HELP MITIGATE IMPACTS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO THIS COLD SNAP BEING SHORT LIVED WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND BEYOND BUT THESE
READINGS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES
RETURN THURSDAY TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEW-
SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWERING CEILINGS FROM WEST TO
EAST AOA 7 KFT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES WHERE SOME GUSTS
15-20 KTS MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 52 37 50 29 / 0 70 100 40
CAMDEN AR 55 39 54 32 / 0 60 90 80
HARRISON AR 52 37 49 23 / 0 90 100 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 54 38 52 28 / 0 80 100 60
LITTLE ROCK AR 54 39 52 32 / 0 70 100 60
MONTICELLO AR 55 40 56 35 / 0 20 90 90
MOUNT IDA AR 56 39 54 27 / 0 90 100 50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 51 37 47 25 / 0 90 100 30
NEWPORT AR 51 39 49 30 / 0 50 100 60
PINE BLUFF AR 53 39 53 31 / 0 50 90 90
RUSSELLVILLE AR 56 39 52 29 / 0 80 100 30
SEARCY AR 52 37 49 29 / 0 60 100 50
STUTTGART AR 52 39 51 32 / 0 40 100 80
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...77
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