645
FXUS64 KLZK 150515
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1215 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE OVER CNTRL/S/SE
ARKANSAS TODAY
- HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS MONDAY & TUESDAY
- EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY
- ANOMALOUSLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
TODAY, FEW TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY CNTRL/S/SE AR ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM HAZARD WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION WOULD BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. OTHERWISE, DRY AND HOT CONDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE. HIGHS TODAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. FACTORING IN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN
PLACE AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 105 TO 110 ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THIS, A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL BUT NW AND N-CNTRL AR THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY EVENING.
HEADING THROUGH MIDDLE-TO-LATE PART OF THIS WEEK, A STOUT UPPER
RIDGE WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SRN CONUS. DURING THIS
TIME, THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ABOUT THE REGION
BETWEEN FEATURES TO THE W AND E OF THE RIDGE AXIS. UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES EACH
DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MINIMAL, OR SPOTTY AT BEST, WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 95 AND 110.
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MIDDLE PART OF SEPTEMBER IT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO REACH 100 DEGREES DUE TO DECREASING
OVERHEAD SUN ANGLE, EXPECTED INCREASE IN AVERAGE PRECIP, AND
DECREASING AMOUNT OF DAYLIGHT WITH EACH PASSING DAY. TO OPPOSE THESE
NATURAL COOLING EXPECTATIONS ONE WOULD EXPECT, A STRENGTHENING AND
AMPLIFYING RIDGE ON THE ORDER OF ~597-600 DECAMETERS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THOSE CURIOUS ABOUT CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, LITTLE ROCK - AVERAGE LOW 64,
AVERAGE HIGH 86; PINE BLUFF - AVERAGE LOW 64, AVERAGE HIGH 87;
HARRISON - AVERAGE LOW 59, AVERAGE HIGH 82. IN SUMMARY, AVERAGE
HIGHS AND LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY.
WHILE SUNDAY IS PRETTY FAR OUT IN THE LONG TERM, THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THE RIDGE COULD SHIFT EWRD AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE NATIONS MID-SECTION. IF THIS HAPPENS, RAIN CHANCES COULD
INCREASE LOCALLY WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY LOWERING TEMPS TO END THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL
LAST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE LAZY AFTERNOON CU BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE STATE. EVENTUALLY A COUPLE OF SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN
SOUTH CENTRAL TO EASTERN AR BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION AT ANY TERMINAL. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT OUT OF THE SSW WITH A COUPLE OF GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN TERMINALS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 101 75 101 75 / 10 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 98 73 98 73 / 10 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 96 74 95 73 / 0 0 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 98 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 99 77 99 77 / 10 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 98 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 99 72 98 72 / 0 0 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 98 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 99 75 99 76 / 10 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 97 74 97 73 / 10 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 101 75 99 74 / 0 0 10 0
SEARCY AR 100 74 100 73 / 10 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 100 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ007-008-016-017-
024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121>123-130-137-138-
140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...78
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