855  
FXUS64 KLZK 082358  
AFDLZK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
558 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
A WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH  
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FROM THE  
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY, WITH THE LATTER FRONT SETTLING  
CLOSE TO THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER.  
 
GIVEN THE SETUP, CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT,  
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AREAS  
OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AS WELL, AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY  
BE NEEDED IN PLACES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL ON FRIDAY,  
WITH ANY SHOWERS SOUTH OF LITTLE ROCK.  
 
THE SCENARIO WILL REPEAT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, AND WILL BE  
VERY SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/FRIDAY. THIS TIME, PRECIPITATION WILL BE  
MORE WIDESPREAD, AND AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE APPRECIABLE. HALF INCH  
TO INCH TOTALS ARE IN THE FORECAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED AS WELL.  
 
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, READINGS WILL BE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE  
AVERAGE, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
THE PERIOD BEGINS LATE SATURDAY, WITH A WEAK SWT OVER W TX AND  
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES AND SHOWERS/STORMS  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIP WILL END FROM WNW TO  
ESE AS THESE FEATURES CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD MOVEMENT. BY THE TIME  
THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM EXITS, AN ADDITIONAL 1/4" (SSE AR) TO 1"+  
INCH (REST OF THE STATE) OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO HAVE OCCURRED.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUN, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING EARLY  
MON ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AR, AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT  
NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS.  
 
THROUGH THE DAY MON, AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND HEAT ENERGY INCREASE  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (AND SURROUNDING STATES), A STRONG AND  
EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, INCREASING FORCING FOR  
ASCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DESTABILIZED ENVIRONMENT WILL  
BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE MON THROUGH TUES,  
WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO  
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST BY EARLY WED. AN ADDITIONAL 1" TO  
3" OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST (LOWER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST) BETWEEN  
LATE MON THROUGH EARLY WED. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE  
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  
 
MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY ALLOW FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF  
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER, BEING 5 DAYS  
OUT, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE SOME OF THE INGREDIENTS FOR A SEVERE  
WEATHER EVENT MAY NOT ALIGN PERFECTLY (TRACK AND SPEED OF THE UPPER  
LOW, TIME OF DAY WITH IDEAL DYNAMICS, MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE AND WAA, ETC.). EXPECT UPDATES AS WE MONITOR MODEL TRENDS  
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  
 
BEHIND THE MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM, MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL  
EXPAND ACROSS THE STATE, BRINGING DRIER AND COLDER THAN AVERAGE  
CONDITIONS TO THE NATURAL STATE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN DRAPED ACROSS THE  
STATE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT, MAINLY IFR CONDS ARE  
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIFR OVERNIGHT WITH FG AND LOW  
CIGS. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM. ON FRIDAY, CONDS WILL IMPROVE FROM  
NW TO SE WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF A COLD FRONT. VIS WILL IMPROVE  
AND CIGS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WEDGE OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR  
SLIDING IN. SCATTERED SHRA ARE EXPECTED AT KPBF AND KLLQ WHICH  
MAY TEMPORARILY IMPROVE VIS DURING MODERATE PRECIPITATION RATES.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BATESVILLE AR 49 65 48 57 / 40 0 40 90  
CAMDEN AR 60 68 57 70 / 60 40 20 70  
HARRISON AR 48 61 46 57 / 20 0 90 90  
HOT SPRINGS AR 57 67 55 66 / 60 10 40 90  
LITTLE ROCK AR 57 66 54 65 / 70 10 30 80  
MONTICELLO AR 61 69 57 71 / 50 30 10 60  
MOUNT IDA AR 55 67 54 66 / 50 10 50 90  
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 49 61 45 55 / 20 0 90 100  
NEWPORT AR 52 62 49 58 / 50 0 30 90  
PINE BLUFF AR 58 65 55 68 / 70 20 20 80  
RUSSELLVILLE AR 53 66 52 62 / 40 0 60 90  
SEARCY AR 52 65 49 61 / 60 10 30 90  
STUTTGART AR 57 65 54 65 / 80 20 20 80  
 

 
   
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...46  
LONG TERM....71  
AVIATION...70  
 
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