003
FXUS64 KLZK 091026 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
526 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
-DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS PERSIST AGAIN THIS FRIDAY
-REMNANTS OF ISAIAS TO PASS EAST OF ARKANSAS SATURDAY...WITH CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL BEST OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE
THREAT FOR SEEING ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN BEST EAST OF
THE STATE. WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
-DRIER AND WARM CONDITIONS RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
-FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASED RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AGAIN THIS FRI AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LIGHT NERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST TODAY...KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS GENERALLY LOW.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO KEEP THE OVERALL WILD FIRE DANGER A BIT
LIMITED...ALONG WITH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LEVELS.
ISAIAS CONTINUES TO BE PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND MAKE LANDFALL
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE AL TO FL PANHANDLE GULF COAST LATE THIS EVENING.
THE STORM WILL MOVE INLAND INTO AL/MS...AND THE REMNANTS REMAINING
EAST OF AR THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AS THE REMNANTS MOVE INLAND...THEY
LOOK TO BE INGESTED INTO AN UPPER SHORTWAVE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WHEN THAT HAPPENS...THE REMNANTS MAY BRIEFLY PIVOT WEST SOME BEFORE
BEING EJECTED NE IN THE MAIN UPPER FLOW BY SUN.
MOST IMPACTS WILL REMAIN EAST OF AR...WITH MAINLY SOME INCREASED
POPS OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY
WRN AR SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER...WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WEST
BRIEFLY...POPS MAY SHIFT WEST A BIT...WITH MORE OF NERN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE SEEING BETTER POPS. EVEN SO...MOST OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. IMPACTFUL WINDS LOOK TO ALSO REMAIN EAST OF
AR AS THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE STATE.
THE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER ERN AR AS THE
LOW CENTER MAY MOVE CLOSER TO AR BEFORE MOVING BACK NE. EVEN
SO...WINDS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADV LEVELS.
BY SUN INTO NEXT WEEK...EXPECT A RETURN TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE REGION. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL MAYBE LATER NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT
SFC FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KTS SUSTAINED THROUGH FRI EVENING. WINDS MAY START INCREASING FOR
SAT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 89 59 75 56 / 0 0 30 10
CAMDEN AR 93 58 84 55 / 0 0 10 0
HARRISON AR 88 57 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 91 59 84 56 / 0 0 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 92 62 79 57 / 0 0 20 0
MONTICELLO AR 92 62 77 57 / 0 10 40 0
MOUNT IDA AR 91 55 85 53 / 0 0 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 58 80 55 / 0 0 10 0
NEWPORT AR 90 63 74 59 / 0 0 50 20
PINE BLUFF AR 93 60 78 55 / 0 0 20 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 91 60 84 55 / 0 0 10 0
SEARCY AR 91 61 77 56 / 0 0 30 10
STUTTGART AR 94 62 76 56 / 0 0 40 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...62
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page