627
FXUS64 KLZK 181725
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1225 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
-HAZARDOUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK, WITH DAILY HEAT HEADLINES LIKELY.
-MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH ANY COOLDOWN WILL BE BRIEF.
-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEK, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
RECENT RADAR MOSAIC AND IR SAT IMGRY DEPICTED VIGOROUS AND DEEP
CONVECTION ONGOING ACRS NWRN AR, WHERE B/W 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL
HAS FALLEN RAPIDLY. RADAR IMGRY SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF AN MCV, WHICH WL LKLY MOVE EWRD ACRS THE AR/MO BORDER REGION THRU
TODAY. CHC POPS REMAIN IN PLACE ACRS NRN AR THRU THE OVERNIGHT
TIMEFRAME, W/ ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FRI AFTN,
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN. SCTD SHOWERS/STORMS WL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACRS SRN TO SERN AR INVOF A WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING INLAND
FM THE GULF.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PD
THOUGH, W/ ANOTHER AFTN OF SULTRY CONDNS EXPECTED, INCLUDING MUCH
OF THE STATE UNDER A HEAT ADVISORY, AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL TO ERN AND
NERN AR IN AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING. AFTN POPS AND ASCTD CLOUD COVER
MAY HELP TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FM SWELTERING HEAT INDEX VALUES ACRS
SRN AND SERN AR.
THRU THE WEEKEND, SCTD POPS WL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACRS THE ERN HALF OF
THE STATE AS THE REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL SYSTEM
TRAVERSE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN H500 HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM,
CENTERED OVER THE SERN US. THE FCST REMAINS BLEAK THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE PD, AS H500 RIDGING RETROGRADES WWRD AND AMPLIFIES OVER THE
CNTRL US THRU THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE ON MORE
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT CONT TO INCRS AS WELL, W/ SWRLY SFC
WINDS PROMOTING AFTN DEWPOINT VALUES MIXING TO THE UPPER 60S ACRS
PORTIONS OF THE FA. IN FACT, PORTIONS OF CNTRL AR COULD BE LOOKING
AT A FEW CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 100 DEGREE HEAT, FM TUES THRU THURS.
HEAT HEADLINES ARE LKLY TO REMAIN A DAILY OCCURRENCE THRU THE NEXT
WEEK AHEAD, W/ HAZARDOUS HEAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU AT LEAST THE
END OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH THAT SAID, SHRA AND TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TERMINALS. VCTS/VCSH
HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS FOR AREAS OF WITH BEST CHANCES. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS PERSIST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 76 96 77 96 / 20 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 74 93 75 97 / 20 20 0 0
HARRISON AR 73 94 73 93 / 10 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 75 96 75 96 / 10 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 77 96 77 96 / 10 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 76 92 77 96 / 20 30 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 74 95 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 74 95 74 95 / 20 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 77 96 77 96 / 20 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 76 94 76 95 / 10 20 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 76 98 76 97 / 10 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 76 96 75 96 / 10 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 77 94 77 95 / 10 20 0 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ006-014-015-024-
052-053-062>069-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-221>223-230-237-238-
240-241-340-341.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ006-014>016-
024-025-031>034-039-042>047-054>057-121>123-130-138-221>223-230-
238.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ007-008-
016-017-025-031>034-039-042>047-054>057.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ007-
008-017.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...73
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