044
FXUS64 KLZK 100455
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1055 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 110 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
-DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS TODAY AND TUESDAY
-CHANCES FOR RAINFALL RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
-BRIEF DRY AND COOLER PERIOD LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
-WARMER AIR RETURNS WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY THIS MON
AFTERNOON...WITH SRLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THESE SRLY
WINDS ALONG WITH THE CLEARING SKY WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS THIS MON AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST/SW APPROACHING 80....AND
AREAS ACROSS THE NE REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. ANOTHER WARM DAY
WILL BE SEEN ON TUE AS THE SRLY FLOW CONTINUES...BUT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
WARMING TOO FAR. EVEN SO...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING...WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST IN NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS UPPER WAVE LOOK TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF AR...WITH MAINLY CHANCES FOR SHRA EXPECTED AS THE COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF AR ON WED. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A FEW TSRA AS
WELL...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE SFC FRONT ACROSS SRN SECTIONS.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP BY LATE WED INTO THU AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES NWRLY OVER THE REGION...AND NERLY SFC FLOW BRINGS IN
DRIER...COOLER AIR. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION RETURN TO THE FORECAST
LATE THU INTO FRI AS THE COLD FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH THE RETURN OF SRLY FLOW
AND RIDGING ALOFT...BUT INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP MAY KEEP THE
WARMING MORE LIMITED.
BY SAT...CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOK TO INCREASE AS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE PATH OF THE UPPER WAVE AND THE SFC FEATURES BY NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL DICTATE EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD THE PRECIP WILL
BE...AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORNG/SVR CONVECTION. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING BACK NORTH...WHICH MAY BRING THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THIS HAS BEEN A MORE RECENT
SHIFT IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE. BEING SEVERAL DAYS OUT...WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT WEEKEND SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL SITES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD FROM LATE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THE
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT THE TAF SITE OF KLLQ FOR LOWERED CIGS TO
MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SITES ACROSS
ARKANSAS OF KHRO, KBPK, KHOT, AND KADF FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS IN EXCESS OF NEAR 25 KNOTS FROM
LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ANTICIPATE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL, WESTERN, AND SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS OF KLIT,
KHOT, KADF, KPBF, AND KLLQ FROM TUESDAY EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 51 74 43 59 / 0 50 60 10
CAMDEN AR 57 76 53 66 / 0 10 60 20
HARRISON AR 54 74 41 58 / 0 20 20 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 56 74 50 59 / 0 30 70 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 52 74 47 57 / 0 40 80 20
MONTICELLO AR 59 74 53 62 / 0 10 60 20
MOUNT IDA AR 56 74 50 61 / 0 30 70 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 50 74 40 59 / 0 20 30 0
NEWPORT AR 51 72 45 56 / 0 50 70 10
PINE BLUFF AR 56 74 49 59 / 0 20 70 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 53 76 48 59 / 0 40 60 10
SEARCY AR 50 74 43 56 / 0 50 80 10
STUTTGART AR 56 72 47 57 / 0 30 80 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...74
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