777
FXUS64 KLZK 250643
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
143 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
-A DRY AND FAIR MEMORIAL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE OF ARKANSAS
-UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS ARKANSAS FOR THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVE BACK OVER THE
STATE
-TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
MEMORIAL DAY (MONDAY/TODAY):
A DRY AND FAIR MEMORIAL DAY SHAPING UP ACROSS THE CWA AND STATE OF
ARKANSAS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS KEPT ELEVATED RAIN AND
ISOLATED STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST HAS MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
ARKANSAS AND POP CHANCES HAVE BEEN DRASTICALLY REDUCED TO NIL FOR
MUCH OF THE STATE TO REFLECT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD
ACROSS THE CONUS BY MID-WEEK. THE TWO CLOSED LOWS ARE PROGGED TO BE
POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN REGION OF THE CONUS AND THE OVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. OVER ARKANSAS,
THE UPPER LVL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL REMAIN LIGHT
WITH WINDS WHICH WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE MID-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, BUT NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON MOVING MESOSCALE
FEATURE GIVEN THE OVERALL POSITIONING OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN
PLACE OVER THE CONUS.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF INCREASED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ARKANSAS WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE STATE AS A WARM FRONT AND THEN BECOME A
STALLED STATIONARY FRONT ONCE AGAIN AS THE UPPER LVL OMEGA BLOCK
PREVENTS MESOSCALE FEATURES FROM MAKING PROGRESS OR MOVING IN THEIR
TYPICAL WEST TO EAST MOVEMENT ACROSS THE CONUS.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, THE OMEGA BLOCK BREAKS DOWN THAT WAS SOLIDIFIED
OVER THE CONUS. AT THE SFC, A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE AND TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN TURN, POP CHANCES OVERALL WILL LOWER, BUT GUIDANCE
THIS FAR OUT IS IN SOME DISAGREEMENT OF THE MOVEMENT OF A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT MAY BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE STATE AND HOW QUICKLY THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT PUSHES THE BOUNDARY AWAY FROM THE STATE WHICH
WOULD DIMINISH POP CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS. SHRA KEPT OUT OF TAFS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF COVERAGE. SHOULD AN ISOLATED SHOWER MOVE OVER A
TERMINAL, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 81 65 79 65 / 10 40 60 50
CAMDEN AR 83 64 84 66 / 30 30 50 30
HARRISON AR 81 61 77 62 / 10 10 60 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 82 65 81 66 / 20 20 50 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 81 65 80 66 / 20 40 60 30
MONTICELLO AR 82 66 83 68 / 40 40 60 40
MOUNT IDA AR 82 65 80 66 / 20 20 50 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 81 62 77 63 / 0 20 70 40
NEWPORT AR 82 66 81 66 / 20 50 70 60
PINE BLUFF AR 81 66 82 67 / 30 50 60 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 83 65 81 66 / 10 20 60 20
SEARCY AR 81 64 80 64 / 20 50 60 40
STUTTGART AR 81 67 81 68 / 30 50 60 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...56
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