186
FXUS64 KLZK 310845
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED ACRS SOUTHEAST AR EARLY THIS
MRNG, IN THE VICINITY OF A CDFNT. CAMS CONT TO SHOW THIS ACTIVITY WL
EVENTUALLY EXIT THE FA LATER THIS MRNG, AS AN ASSOCD UPPER TROF
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION, ALONG WITH THE FNTL BNDRY. ELSEWHERE,
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTD TO ADVECT INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE
FNT.
A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL SLIDE ACRS THE FA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WX CONDS.
HIGHS TODAY WL RANGE FM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S, WITH LOWS
TNGT FALLING INTO THE 40S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE WL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY TUE. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WL RETURN AND INCRS TUE AS A
NEW STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER EASTERN CO. MOISTURE/CLOUDS WL MAKE
A RETURN ACRS AR LATER TUE AND TUE NGT AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST. RAIN CHCS WL INCRS AS WELL FM THE WEST TUE NGT AS A LEAD
SWT APCHS FM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WL BE THE START OF A UNSETTLED WX
PATTERN THAT WL PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BE FROM THE SW AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH FLOW INCREASING OVER AR ON WED. AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NE INTO THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY REGION ON WED...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SE
INTO AR WED INTO THU. CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY AS THIS
HAPPENS...WITH SOME INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SVR CONVECTION.
INSTABILITY/SHR LEVELS WILL HAVE INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HRS ON WED WELL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH ALL
HAZARDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...DETAILS
REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE SVR THREATS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOME PORTION OF AR
THU INTO FRI AS FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC
FRONT. UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL PASS OVER THIS FRONT...WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL WED THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. THIS SETUP MAY CREATE AN
INCREASED FLASH AND RIVER FLOOD THREAT BY LATE THIS WEEK FOR AT
LEAST SOME PORTION OF AR.
BY SAT...A NEW UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...
ALLOWING FOR THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH BRIEFLY ON SAT.
HOWEVER...AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL DIVE SE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE FORECAST BECOMING
DRY BY LATE IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
SFC BNDRY WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST AR, JUST TO THE NORTH OF A
KELD-KLLQ LINE. AN AREA OF STORMS WL CONT TO TREK TO THE NORTHEAST
IN THE VCNTY OF THE BNDRY, WITH COMBO OF VFR/MVFR CONDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HRS AT KLLQ. MEANWHILE, SCTD ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS
FORMING OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS, WITH PROB30 GROUPS MENTIONED AT
KLIT AND KPBF EARLY IN THE PD. DRIER CONDS RETURN LATER MON MRNG,
WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 66 43 72 64 / 0 0 0 40
CAMDEN AR 73 46 79 67 / 0 0 0 20
HARRISON AR 61 41 71 63 / 0 0 0 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 71 46 77 66 / 0 0 0 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 69 45 76 68 / 0 0 0 40
MONTICELLO AR 71 48 79 70 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 72 46 78 66 / 0 0 0 50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 63 42 70 62 / 0 0 0 50
NEWPORT AR 65 43 72 64 / 0 0 0 30
PINE BLUFF AR 70 45 77 68 / 0 0 0 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 71 45 76 66 / 0 0 0 60
SEARCY AR 68 41 73 63 / 0 0 0 40
STUTTGART AR 67 46 75 68 / 0 0 0 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...44
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