059
FXUS64 KLZK 060528
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1128 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST THUR MAR 5 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW PLACES MAY TIE OR BREAK DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS THE
STATE ON FRIDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO A
RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST THUR MAR 5 2026
IR/WV IMAGERY LATE TONIGHT SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN IMPULSE ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THIS IMPULSE COUPLED
WITH THE COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IS GENERATING ENOUGH ASCENT TO PRODUCE
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST AND NOW WESTERN ARKANSAS. LATEST CAMS ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO SHOW INDIVIDUAL SEMI DISCRETE STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
ARKANSAS WILL HAVE TROUBLE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARKANSAS DUE TO A STABLE ENVIRONMENT, THUS ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DOES MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE. A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT ADAMS FIELD IN LITTLE
ROCK IS 82 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1918.
AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY, ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC'S DAY 2 OUTLOOK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST US CONTINUES
TO AMPLIFY, FEATURING AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL JET STREAM/VORTICITY
MAX ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ACROSS THE STATE, AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH UPPER 50 DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS CAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG COUPLED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN THE
40-50KT RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, BULK SHEAR VALUES
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WILL BE IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO OVER 50 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN SYNC WITH THE NOCTURNAL LLJ. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ACROSS
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE, RAINFALL IS
GREATLY NEEDED. A LOOK AT MEAN NBM 12 HOUR PROBABILITIES FOR 1
INCH OF RAINFALL ARE THE HIGHEST OVER PARTS OF FAR WESTERN
ARKANSAS, THEN JUST OVER 40 PERCENT IN AN AREAS NORTH OF I-30 AND
SOUTH OF I-40 TO AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN PART OF PULASKI COUNTY.
NBM MEAN PROBABILITIES ELSEWHERE WERE 30 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF SURROUNDING THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AND 25% OR LESS OVER
EASTERN ARKANSAS. NONETHELESS, THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE A MARGINAL
IMPACT WITH ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY, TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE STATE DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT PUSH INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS
BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE STATE
BEHIND THE FRONT. BY SUNDAY, MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTH AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US ALLOWING WARM MOISTURE
AIR TO TRANSPORTED NORTH BACK INTO THE STATE LEADING TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
INTO NEXT WEEK. A CUTOFF LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FROM FRIDAY
WILL STALL OUT OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BE PICKED UP BY A TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND COULD BRING YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT OF POSITIONING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES
EAST AND THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. A MORE NORTHERN SYSTEM WOULD
FAVOR MORE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK INTO HEAVY RAIN EVENT. A
FURTHER SOUTH SYSTEM WOULD HAVE A WINDOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITH ALL HAZARD TYPES POSSIBLE.
NONETHELESS, RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HAVE DEW POINTS REBOUND INTO
THE MID 60S AREA WIDE BY 0Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL LATE INTO NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS
NEXT SYSTEM DROPS US DOWN TO NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
PREVAIL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. JUST BEFORE SUNRISE, PREVAIL SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT CONTINUES
TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO
OVERSPREAD THE STATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
TOMORROW S FLOW OUT AHEAD OF STORMS WILL INCREASE AND CREATE LLWS
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE STORM ACTIVITY
INCREASING BY 03Z TOMORROW, AND ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO
THE OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 74 61 79 63 / 80 20 30 80
CAMDEN AR 82 63 83 64 / 20 10 20 80
HARRISON AR 71 61 77 58 / 80 20 40 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 78 62 81 63 / 60 20 30 90
LITTLE ROCK AR 79 62 81 65 / 60 10 20 80
MONTICELLO AR 81 64 84 68 / 10 0 20 50
MOUNT IDA AR 77 61 80 61 / 70 20 40 90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 72 60 78 59 / 80 20 20 90
NEWPORT AR 75 62 79 64 / 80 10 30 70
PINE BLUFF AR 81 62 83 65 / 40 0 20 70
RUSSELLVILLE AR 76 60 81 62 / 90 30 30 90
SEARCY AR 77 59 81 63 / 70 20 20 80
STUTTGART AR 80 63 81 65 / 40 10 20 70
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...78
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