050
FXUS64 KLZK 160524
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1224 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTH ARKANSAS TODAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS ALONG A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY.
- TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER TODAY THAN DAYS PAST
FOR A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE SUMMER HEAT. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
RISE AGAIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.
- A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE FA THIS MORNING VERSUS
THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE
FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FA.
GUIDANCE REMAINS STEADFAST IN MOVING SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG SAID BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO OR THREE ROWS OF COUNTIES IN THE
CWA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS FALLING TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WHERE A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESIDE.
REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL BE DRY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH. THE HIGH, WORKING WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION, WILL PROVIDE NE WINDS AND A BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE
SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO RISE ONCE AGAIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AS THE
HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RETURNS.
NW FLOW ALOFT TO START OFF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S.
GUIDANCE LIFTS A SYSTEM OUT OF THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACKS IT
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH KEEPING THE MAJORITY
OF THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE FA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD WITH
ONGOING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
SOME SCATTERED SHRA MAY IMPACT KLLQ OVERNIGHT BUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SOME CENTRAL/SRN TERMINALS MAY
SEE SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH DOMINANT VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 87 68 91 77 / 0 10 0 10
CAMDEN AR 88 69 92 75 / 10 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 83 66 88 72 / 10 10 0 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 89 70 91 76 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 89 70 92 77 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 87 70 91 76 / 10 0 0 20
MOUNT IDA AR 88 69 90 76 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 84 65 89 73 / 10 20 0 30
NEWPORT AR 88 69 92 77 / 0 10 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 87 70 91 76 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 89 70 92 77 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 88 68 93 76 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 87 71 92 77 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...56
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