233
FXUS64 KLZK 232345
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
645 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE PERIOD OF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
STATE OF ARKANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
THURSDAY (TODAY):
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A RIDGE AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER ARKANSAS
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND SHORTWAVE
PATTERN APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS. AT THE
SFC, A PARENT SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER POSITIONED ACROSS THE
VICINITY OF THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.
LATEST CAMS GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SITUATION WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
INTO AN MCS WHICH IS PROJECTED TO ENTER THE STATE OF ARKANSAS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE
HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE TIMING OF ARRIVAL
OF THE MCS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS IS EXPECTED DURING A TIME OF
LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE STATE OVERALL, BUT THE MCS WILL BE IN
AN ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH PLENTIFUL
AMOUNTS OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SEE MORE BELOW AS THE MCS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING ACROSS ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE PULSES WILL MOVE OVER
ARKANSAS WITH OTHERWISE NEARLY ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE STATE. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND WILL TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE.
EXPECT ON FRIDAY MORNING, A DECAYING MCS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE. THE SIZE AND SPEED OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE PARAMOUNT IN THE
DETERMINATION OF, IF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IF THE
ACTIVITY IS SLUGGISH IN EXITING THE CWA AND STATE, THEN INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STRUGGLE TO BECOME UNSTABLE
AGAIN TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THE CONVERSE SITUATION IS THAT THE MCS MOVES
QUICKLY ACROSS THE CWA AND STATE ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME
UNSTABLE VIA WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. IF
THE CONVERSE SITUATION COMES TO FRUITION, THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS, A
SECONDARY HAZARD WILL BE A TORNADO OR TWO.
INTO SATURDAY, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT DOES OR DOES NOT DEVELOP HOURS PRIOR AS THE
QUESTION OF WHETHER STORMS ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP IN A PARAMETER SPACE
THAT IS STABLE OR UNSTABLE. A SIGNAL DOES EXIST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS A TAD LOWER FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY, BUT IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WHICH BE MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THEN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED.
SUNDAY/MONDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, SHORTWAVE PULSES CONTINUE OVER ARKANSAS WITH A
TAD MORE DIGGING OR DEFINITION WITHIN THE FLOW PATTERN FOR EACH
SHORTWAVE. AT THE SFC, A BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY AND RETREATS BACK NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT OPENING UP A WARM SECTOR AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR THE REMNANTS OF A MCS WILL EXIST
LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES REMAIN
INTACT OUT OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA MOVING INTO ARKANSAS. ALL HAZARDS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE, BUT PRIMARY HAZARDS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL. A SECONDARY HAZARD WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO OR TWO.
INTO MONDAY, THE WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT INTO THE MID-WEST REGION OF
THE CONUS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THUS OPENING UP A
FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR WITH AMPLE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IT
IS MONDAY WHICH DOES LOOK THE BEST FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS ALL HAZARDS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM WHICH DEVELOP ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:
RAIN CHANCES WILL STICK AROUND, BUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECT
TO BECOME NEAR ZERO AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE ON
MONDAY, BUT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN
THE VICINITY IS ANTICIPATED BY MID-WEEK. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECAST DISCUSSION AS THE FOCUS HAS BEEN REALLY PINPOINTED TOWARDS
THURSDAY (TODAY) THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WHILE
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD. LATEST MODELS
BRINGS IN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS NORTHWARD AND IMPACTS SOUTHERN
TERMINALS AS EARLY AS 07Z, THEN CENTRAL/NORTHERN TERMINALS AFTER
08Z. HI-RES CAMS SHOWS THE LEADING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
A COMPLEX OF EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING NW
ARKANSAS AROUND 08Z AND IMPACTING NORTHERN TERMINALS AS EARLY AS
09/10Z. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. THE LEADING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH EMBEDDED COMPLEX STORMS ARE WILL IMPACT CENTRAL TERMINALS
AROUND 14 OR 15Z WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY WINDS, THEN
SOUTHERN TERMINALS AROUND OR AFTER NOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 64 75 60 81 / 50 100 60 10
CAMDEN AR 65 79 62 82 / 10 80 80 20
HARRISON AR 61 76 57 79 / 80 90 30 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 64 75 60 79 / 30 90 70 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 64 77 62 81 / 30 90 80 20
MONTICELLO AR 65 80 63 82 / 10 80 90 30
MOUNT IDA AR 64 75 60 79 / 50 90 60 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 61 76 56 80 / 70 90 30 10
NEWPORT AR 66 75 62 80 / 30 90 60 20
PINE BLUFF AR 65 78 63 80 / 20 80 90 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 63 76 60 81 / 60 90 50 10
SEARCY AR 63 76 59 81 / 30 90 70 20
STUTTGART AR 66 77 65 79 / 20 90 80 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...74
AVIATION...76
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