276
FXUS64 KLZK 150536 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1236 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2019
DISCUSSION
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
AVIATION
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE SEEN...WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 228 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2019)
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
SO AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OFF, YOU'D THINK THINGS WOULD CHANGE A
LITTLE IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST. BUT, UNFORTUNATELY, FOR THOSE OF
US WAITING ON MORE FALL-LIKE WEATHER, THAT'S NOT THE CASE.
PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE CONTINUES (AND WILL CONTINUE) TO BE
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES TO A MINIMUM, LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER OVER US, AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, WHICH WILL CAUSE DRY AND HOT
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ALONG
WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES DRIFTING THROUGH THE STATE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE H500 HIGH. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHETHER OR
NOT THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO, OR EVEN NEAR THE STATE, WE MIGHT
AT LEAST SEE THE RIDGE START TO BREAKDOWN, WHICH COULD PROVIDE A
CHANCE FOR THIS OPPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO TRANSITION INTO ONE
THAT FAVORS COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING THE DOMINATE FEATURE THIS GO-ROUND,
HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S,
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...62
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