302
FXUS64 KLZK 211149
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
549 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
-LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PRECEDE DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
-MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION IS PROMOTING SOME SHOWERY
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH ACROSS ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. COVERAGE
OF THESE SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LESSEN GOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MOST ACTIVITY FINISHED BY DAYBREAK. SKIES
WILL BE CLEARING GOING THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, WITH SOME GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES TODAY, WITH READINGS TOWARDS NORMAL
OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S
AND 30S. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE COLDEST
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT (UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S) AND
MONDAY. DAILY AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS OUT OF GENERALLY THE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. SOME PERIODIC ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE WINDIEST DAYS (PEAKING
SUNDAY), AS WIDESPREAD MINIMUM RH'S HOVER IN THE 20S AND 30S
PERCENT THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP ANY
CONCERNS AT BAY.
SOME POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES BEGIN TO CREEP INTO THE
REGION BY TUESDAY, AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE AMPLIFIES EAST
OF THE REGION, WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING AMPLIFYING IN RESPONSE. WHILE
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE ROCKIES, EXPECT WARMING
CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF ARCTIC ORIGIN DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OF THE
ROCKIES MID-WEEK WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH IN TERMS OF A
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND POSSIBLY WETTER OUTLOOK LATE NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS POINT, ENSEMBLES SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN REGARDS TO
HOW AMPLIFIED THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME AND, IN TURN, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD. THE PATH OF AMPLIFICATION WILL
ALSO DICTATE WHETHER THE FAVORED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT IS AN ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY THAT, EVEN IF IT COMES TO
FRUITION, MAY NOT GUARANTEE THE STATE COULD SEE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, COOLER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO MID-WEEK ARE FAVORED FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS MAY PRECEDE SOME
MVFR CEILINGS THAT COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BUT
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY VFR BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND GENERALLY SKC
BY TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WILL
PREVAIL, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 52 29 47 23 / 20 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 59 33 56 27 / 10 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 50 26 44 19 / 10 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 57 32 53 27 / 10 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 54 32 52 27 / 10 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 60 34 54 29 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 60 31 53 25 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 50 26 44 19 / 10 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 49 29 47 25 / 20 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 55 32 52 26 / 10 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 57 31 52 25 / 10 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 52 28 50 23 / 20 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 52 31 50 25 / 10 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...77
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