183
FXUS64 KLZK 041129
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
629 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
-RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE
STATE, GREATEST RAINFALL ACROSS WEST TO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
-RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT INTO NEXT WEEK
-ELEVATED FIRE DANGER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
-DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING BY END OF WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
RECENT OBSERVED RADAR DEPICTED A LARGE MCS MOVING ACRS ERN OK,
APRCHG NW TO WRN AR. MRMS RAINFALL ESTIMATES ACRS SRN CNTRL OK WHERE
THE BACK BUILDING PORTION OF THIS MCS WAS LOCATED INDICATED 1.5 TO 2
IN/HR RAINFALL RATES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS LINE SHOULD
TRANSITION FM A FAST FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS TO A SLOWER TRAINING
LINE (LINE MOVEMENT BECOMES PARALLEL TO LINE ORIENTATION, AND
LARGELY PARALLEL TO AN H850 LLJ). NSSL WOFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BE IN PLACE ACRS WRN AR BY 06Z AHEAD OF THE
MCS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, E.G., MUCAPE AROUND 800-1000 J/KG AND
MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30 KTS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MCS MAINTENANCE THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD. LAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR/RAP
FCST SOUNDINGS ACRS WRN AR ALSO INDICATE A FAVORABLE HEAVY RAINFALL
ENVIRONMENT, E.G., PWATS > 1.5 IN, AND THERMAL PROFILES CONDUCIVE
FOR EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES.
THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE STATE, W/ GREATEST EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL LYING OVER WRN AR, AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE
AR RIVER VALLEY. HIGH-END MODEL SOLNS SUGGEST BANDS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES
MAY BE POSSIBLE THRU MID-MORNING SAT. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
RISK MAY ARISE WHERE RAINFALL RATES ARE MOST EXCESSIVE IN THE SHORT
TERM, PARTICULARLY OVER MORE SIGNIFICANT TOPOGRAPHY, BUT ANTECEDENT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND GREENING VEGETATION ACRS THE STATE MAY
MITIGATE A MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERN.
THRU THE REMAINDER OF SAT, THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE EWRD ACROSS THE STATE, IN ACCORDANCE WITH A CDFRNT MOVING THRU
THE MIDWEST. THE LINE WL LKLY REACH THE ARKLAMISS REGION B/W 21-00Z
SAT EVENING, W/ PRECIP TAPERING OFF BEHIND THE FRNT PROMPTLY SAT
AFTN.
SUN AND THRU AT LEAST MID-WEEK, WRN US H500 RIDGING WL AMPLIFY, W/
NWRLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE CNTRL US. AS SUCH, SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WL MEANDER FM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST THRU THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, W/ SETTLED AND DRIER WEATHER PREVAILING, AND TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES ACRS THE FA.
BY MID-WEEK AND THRU THE END OF THE PD, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING
IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN, W/ MEAN TROUGHING RETURNING OVER THE WRN TO
CNTRL US, AS ADVERTISED BY EPS/GEFS SOLNS, SIGNALING A RETURN OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE SRN CNTRL US.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS A
COLD FRONT PRESSES THROUGH THE STATE. WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND WILL BE GUSTY
AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 70 45 66 43 / 100 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 75 46 69 43 / 90 40 0 0
HARRISON AR 63 40 63 39 / 90 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 70 45 68 43 / 100 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 46 68 45 / 90 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 78 50 68 47 / 100 70 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 70 44 68 42 / 90 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 64 40 65 39 / 90 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 71 45 65 43 / 90 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 76 46 67 43 / 90 60 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 69 43 69 42 / 100 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 71 43 68 41 / 90 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 74 46 66 44 / 100 40 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...56
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page