235
FXUS64 KLZK 281005 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
505 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
-UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED DAILY RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE STATE.
-NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
-SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE VERY LOW, SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
OVERALL H500 PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH CUTOFF LOWS ON EITHER END OF THE CONUS DIVIDED BY
STEEP RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE WESTERN US CYCLONE IS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM SE
COLORADO TOWARD HOUSTON, TX. THIS FEATURE WILL STRUGGLE TO LIFT
NORTH AS IT WORKS AGAINST THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY.
AT THE SFC, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK WILL ALSO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH THESE FEATURES IN
PLACE, WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE STATE AND SURROUNDING AREAS. AS PW VALUES APPROACH OR
EXCEED 2.00" AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CAMS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL BANDS OF
PRECIP DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF THE LOW (ACROSS AR), PERSISTING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SOME LOCALIZED SWATHS OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND
AREAL EXTENT REMAIN LOW. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY EVENING, SOME
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL LIMIT PRECIP
COVERAGE. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS
WELL. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS GUIDANCE REMAINS
VARIED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER THIS ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE
OF THE PRECIP...SOME LOW CIGS WERE OCCASIONALLY OCCURRING...BUT
WEREN'T WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...DO KEEP A MENTION OF
THE LOWER CIGS UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING. LATER IN THE MORNING
WILL ALSO BE WHEN ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HRS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 79 67 79 66 / 80 90 80 30
CAMDEN AR 82 66 85 67 / 60 30 50 20
HARRISON AR 76 65 78 65 / 80 80 90 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 81 67 83 68 / 50 40 60 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 81 67 82 67 / 60 60 60 20
MONTICELLO AR 82 68 84 68 / 70 40 60 30
MOUNT IDA AR 80 67 82 68 / 50 30 70 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 77 64 77 64 / 80 90 80 30
NEWPORT AR 81 68 80 67 / 70 80 80 40
PINE BLUFF AR 82 68 83 68 / 70 50 50 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 81 68 82 68 / 60 60 60 20
SEARCY AR 81 66 81 66 / 80 80 70 30
STUTTGART AR 82 69 82 69 / 60 60 60 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...62
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