739
FXUS64 KLZK 240641
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1241 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
-GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL YIELD
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST,
NORTHWEST, AND NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
-ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
-RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT UNIMPACTFUL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
-DRY AND SETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
SOME RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
RECENT NIGHTTIME SAT IMGRY DEPICTED HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING SEWRD ACRS
THE STATE, ASCTD W/ STRONG NWRLY H500 FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT
THE SFC, BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED OVER THE SRN CNTRL
US AND MID-SOUTH VCTY.
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS, SFC LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE
OK/TX PANHANDLE, RESULTING IN A STEEPENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU. STRONG SWRLY SFC FLOW IS FORECAST, W/ PT
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MODERATE BL MIXING AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TUES AFTN ACRS NWRN TO NRN AR. CURRENT FCST WINDS AND GUSTS
REFLECT A BLENDED SOLUTION TOWARDS 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES, AND
CORRESPONDINGLY 10TH PERCENTILE SFC DEWPOINT VALUES. AS SUCH, STRONG
AFTN MIXING SHOULD YIELD MIN RH VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT OR LESS, AND
WHEN COUPLED W/ 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURES NEAR OR LESS THAN 10 PERCENT,
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WL ARISE OVER PORTIONS OF WRN, NWRN, AND N
CNTRL AR TUES AFTN.
THRU TUES NIGHT AND INTO WED, MOISTURE RETURN WL RESUME UNDER
PERSISTENT SWRLY FLOW. SOME CHC POPS APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF ERN AR OVERNIGHT WED AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE NAVIGATES THRU
MEAN NWRLY H500 FLOW, THOUGH CURRENT QPF PROGS ARE NOT VERY
OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
UNDER MEAN SWRLY SFC FLOW, TEMPS THRU THE WEEK WL BE MODERATING
TOWARDS DAILY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES, E.G., +10-15F TEMP DEPARTURES AT
MOST LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, THRU THE END OF THE WEEK, ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEPICT AN OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION FOR RAINFALL CHANCES
OVER THE FA. MEAN NWRLY H500 FLOW IS EXPECTED, ALONG W/ A STRONG SFC
HIGH MOVING EWRD ACRS THE NRN TIER AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS SFC HIGH, A CDFRNT IS PROGGED TO
WASH OUT OVER THE NATURAL STATE ON SUN.
SEVERAL UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN W/ THE LONG TERM PATTERN, PARTICULARLY
CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FRNT, AS IS SHOWN THROUGH ENSEMBLE
MEAN IQRS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR 15-20F INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WL ALSO HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON POPS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE NRN HALF OF AR, WHICH FOR NOW, ARE
UNIMPACTFUL, W/ HIGHER QPF TOTALS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SRN MO.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY BETWEEN LATE MONDAY EVENING AND LATE
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BESIDES THE TERMINAL OF KHOT
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO VSBY FROM
SMOKE WHICH MAY DROP FLIGHT CATEGORY TO IFR. BY TUESDAY MORNING, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KHOT AS WELL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL ACROSS ALL SITES WILL BE IN
EXCESS OF 25+ KNOTS BETWEEN LATER TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY
EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 59 44 69 48 / 0 0 0 30
CAMDEN AR 65 47 76 56 / 0 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 63 45 71 48 / 0 0 0 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 64 47 73 53 / 0 0 0 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 62 47 72 52 / 0 0 0 20
MONTICELLO AR 63 49 75 57 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 65 47 74 52 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 62 42 69 46 / 0 0 0 20
NEWPORT AR 58 45 65 51 / 0 0 0 30
PINE BLUFF AR 62 47 74 55 / 0 0 0 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 64 45 72 50 / 0 0 0 20
SEARCY AR 60 42 70 49 / 0 0 0 30
STUTTGART AR 59 47 69 55 / 0 0 10 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...74
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