762
FXUS64 KLZK 191657
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1157 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
-LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
-THREAT FOR SEEING SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIMITED BY INSTABILITY...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARY THREAT
-LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT
TODAY
-UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
ALL QUIET ACROSS AR SO FAR EARLY THIS TUE MORNING...WITH SOME BREEZY
SRLY WINDS NOTED. TEMPS REMAIN WARM IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
DEWPTS ALSO IN THE 60S AND 70S. A LINE OF TSRA IS ONGOING ACROSS NRN
OK INTO SERN KS AND WRN MO...SLOWLY MOVING SE OVER TIME. THIS LINE
OF CONVENTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY WX STORY THROUGH THIS TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EXPECT THIS LINE OF CONVECTION TO DROP SE INTO THE STATE SOMETIME
NEAR SUNRISE...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SE THROUGH THE STATE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SVR CONVECTION WITH
THIS LINE AS IT MOVES SE WILL BE LIMITED BY INSTABILITY...WHICH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY LACKING. SHR IS ALSO LIMITED
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...WITH THE HIGHEST 0-3 KM SRH THIS MORNING
JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE OVER NWRN SECTIONS. WHILE THIS DOESN'T MEAN
ORGANIZED SVR WX WON'T HAPPEN...JUST MEANS THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED...AND LIKELY ISOLATED IN NATURE. IF SVR CONVECTION WERE TO
DEVELOP...DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH SOME
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL POSSIBLE ALSO. THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT LOOKS
TO REMAIN LOW...AND MAY BE LIMITED TO FAR NWRN SECTIONS DURING THE
MORNING HRS WHEN THE SRH IS BEST. HOWEVER...THIS IS ALSO WHEN CIN
WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THAT TORNADO THREAT
LOW.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN AS THIS LINE OF CONVECTION
DROPS SLOWLY SE OVER TIME. WHILE MOST OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BE
WELCOME GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS...THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED SPOTS SEE ENOUGH RAINFALL THAT COULD CREATE AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
BEYOND THIS EVENING...CHANCES FOR PRECIP DO DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. HOWEVER...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN SW OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
WAVES WILL PASS OVER THE STATE...WHICH WILL CREATE SOME FORCING FOR
CONVECTION GENERALLY EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SVR WX LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME...LATE MAY CLIMATOLOGY SUGGEST SOME SVR THREAT MAY BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. WHEN...WHERE...AND WHAT SVR THREAT MAY EXIST WILL DEPEND
ON DAY TO DAY SPECIFICS REGARDING THE STABILITY AND SHR. AS A
RESULT...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN UNCERTAIN FOR NOW. THE THREAT FOR
SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT 4-7 DAYS MAY INCREASE GIVEN
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE...BUT ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK KEEP THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS
WELL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA, POCKETS OF MVFR/VFR PERSIST WITH
RECENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWING TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO IFR AS THE
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVED THROUGH KHRO. EXPECT A TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF SITES,
THEN MVFR WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF CYCLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 66 75 62 75 / 60 40 40 60
CAMDEN AR 68 82 65 80 / 60 40 60 80
HARRISON AR 61 70 59 73 / 50 30 30 60
HOT SPRINGS AR 67 80 64 77 / 50 30 50 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 67 79 63 77 / 60 30 50 70
MONTICELLO AR 69 82 67 81 / 80 50 60 90
MOUNT IDA AR 67 79 66 76 / 50 30 50 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 61 71 58 73 / 50 40 30 50
NEWPORT AR 68 77 62 78 / 60 50 40 60
PINE BLUFF AR 68 80 65 79 / 60 40 50 80
RUSSELLVILLE AR 66 78 63 77 / 50 30 40 60
SEARCY AR 66 78 61 77 / 60 50 40 70
STUTTGART AR 69 80 66 78 / 60 50 50 80
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...76
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