447
FXUS64 KLZK 021708
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1208 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
-DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL PRECEDE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
THIS WEEKEND:
LINGERING LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE STATE WILL KEEP THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES AT BAY AT LEAST FOR TODAY ACROSS THE REGION,
AS SKIES CLEAR DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME MUTED RIDGING ALOFT WILL THEN ENTER THE PLAINS REGION GOING
INTO SUNDAY, RESULTING IN WARMING CONDITIONS BACK TOWARDS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
A QUICKLY DEVELOPING LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS ONTARIO ON MONDAY WILL MARK
THE BEGINNING OF A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN STARTING TUESDAY. THUS,
MONDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE 80S. THE SWEEPING COLD FRONT
REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE REGION LOOKS LIKELY INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
FURTHER WEST, A DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE WORTH MONITORING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AS
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TROUGH EJECTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. WITH A SURFACE LOW
LIKELY TO DEVELOP, MORE ROBUST DYNAMICS MAY PROVIDE MUCH BETTER
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. DEPENDING ON THE MOISTURE RETURN
AND TIMING OF EVERYTHING COMING TOGETHER COULD PRESENT SOME SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL, SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN ON HOW GUIDANCE HONES
IN ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION DURING THIS PERIOD.
LATE NEXT WEEK:
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER LOOKS FAVORED LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AND A WARMING AND DRYING TREND OCCURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EASILY BACK INTO THE 70S DURING THIS PERIOD AND AT LEAST 50TH
PERCENTILE HIGHS BY NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE BACK INTO THE 80S ACROSS
THE STATE DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. A FEW
DIURNAL CU ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CU
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT S/SW
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW AFTERNOON BREEZES EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 70 43 76 59 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 74 45 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 66 42 77 59 / 0 0 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 72 45 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 72 46 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 72 47 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 71 44 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 66 40 77 57 / 0 0 0 10
NEWPORT AR 70 45 76 58 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 72 46 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 72 43 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 71 43 76 55 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 71 47 77 58 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...74
AVIATION...76
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