644
FXUS64 KLZK 201738
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1138 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 127 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
-VERY DRY AIR REMAINS AND WILL KEEP THE WILD FIRE THREAT ELEVATED
AGAIN THIS TUESDAY.
-WARMING AND SOME INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN BY MID- WEEK
WITH SOME RAINFALL RETURNING TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY.
-A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO
THE STATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY HAS USHERED IN DRIER
AIR MEANING MIN RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE 20S. WITH SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 5-10 MPH
AND GUSTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER...AN ELEVATED WILD FIRE DANGER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WITH THAT SAID, A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS
NOT EXPECTED AND RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW HALF AN
INCH. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF CALM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES AWAY FROM THE STATE. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SHORT-
LIVED AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE STATE FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY, BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ACCUMULATING SNOW AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES COULD CREATE
HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PIN-POINT EXACT SNOWFALL TOTALS RIGHT
NOW, ONE THING IS FOR SURE...THE INGREDIENTS AND MODEL DATA TRENDS
SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A WINTER STORM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE STATE
LATER THIS WEEK.
WITH THAT SAID, MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SOME ON EXACT TIMING AND
PRECIP TYPE FOR PARTS OF THE STATE SO FORECAST DETAILS ARE STILL
LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER, NOW COULD BE
A GREAT TIME TO START PREPARING FOR WINTRY PRECIP LATER THIS WEEK AS
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO UPPER 50S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S TO UPPER 30S.
AS WE TRANSITION TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BECOME DANGEROUSLY COLD AS COLD AIR FROM
CANADA PUSHES SOUTH FRIDAY AND LINGERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER
SYSTEM MEANING THE COLD AIR COULD BE IN PLACE AS THE MOISTURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE STATE. ALL THIS TO SAY, IF THE SNOW FALLS AS CURRENTLY
FORECASTED THERE COULD BE A PERIOD BETWEEN FRIDAY TO MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE MANY LOCATIONS AROUND THE STATE STRUGGLE TO GET
ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL. EVEN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COULD DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGIT AND TEENS.
HOWEVER, NOTHING IS SET AND FORECAST DETAILS COULD CONTINUE TO
CHANGE HAS UPDATED DATA CONTINUE TO ARRIVE. PLEASE CHECK BACK OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE LATEST AND MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AFTER 09Z, MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL, WITH IFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 45 31 53 29 / 0 30 50 10
CAMDEN AR 51 34 50 40 / 0 20 100 50
HARRISON AR 49 32 52 26 / 0 20 20 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 49 33 53 35 / 0 40 80 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 47 33 51 32 / 0 40 80 20
MONTICELLO AR 51 37 52 41 / 0 10 90 60
MOUNT IDA AR 50 35 55 34 / 0 40 70 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 47 30 52 25 / 0 30 20 0
NEWPORT AR 43 30 50 29 / 0 30 60 10
PINE BLUFF AR 49 34 50 37 / 0 20 90 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 49 32 53 29 / 0 40 40 10
SEARCY AR 45 29 51 28 / 0 40 70 20
STUTTGART AR 46 33 49 36 / 0 30 90 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55
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