947
FXUS64 KLZK 202345
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
645 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2020
AVIATION
TROPICAL STORM BETA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO. BY MORNING WE COULD SEE SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OUTER BANDS OF THE SYSTEM GETTING INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW SHOWERS COULD GET NEAR THE VERY SOUTHERN TAF
SITES BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION
(ISSUED 319 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2020)
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS ONGOING THIS SUN AFTER A COOL QUIET MORNING WAS
SEEN. LOWS THIS MORNING DROPPED DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH A FEW AREAS DID REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S WHERE SOME
CLOUDS DEVELOPED...AND WINDS REMAINED ELEVATED. THIS SUN
AFTERNOON...NERLY WINDS PERSISTED...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 70S
TO LOW 80S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR MID SEP. DRY WX WAS
ONGOING...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH LOWS BY MON
MORNING IN THE 50S AND 60S.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE REBOUNDING STARTING MON...AS WE'LL START TO
SEE SOME INFLUENCE FROM TS BETA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHRA AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED TSRA STARTING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS ON MON. THIS WILL INITIALLY START ACROSS SRN SECTIONS...THEN
SPREAD GRADUALLY NORTH LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO MON NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SEEING ANY PRECIP THROUGH MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
BE ACROSS THE SRN AND SWRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. BY THE DAYTIME HRS
ON TUE...MUCH OF THE SWRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE...LOOKS
LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE IN THIS SAME GENERAL AREA OF THE
SWRN AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD
BE SEEN. THIS WETTER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD
STARTING TUE NIGHT.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BETA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
OR NORTHEAST OVER ARKANSAS AS THE SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICALLY
TRANSITIONS FROM A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO AN EXTRATROPICAL (NON-
TROPICAL/NORMAL) CYCLONE. FOR ARKANSAS THIS TRANSITION ISN'T
INCREDIBLY RELEVANT, BUT THE MOST IMPORTANT RESULT OF THIS
EVOLUTION FOR ARKANSANS IS THAT CONTINUED RAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT
WAY TO STRENGTHENING THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM.
BASICALLY, EVEN THOUGH IT WILL CHANGE NAMES FROM A STORM TO A
DEPRESSION AND FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO AN EXTRA TROPICAL SYSTEM,
EXTRA TROPICAL DOESN'T MEAN THE STORM WILL BE WORSE, IT ACTUALLY
MEANS THE WIND FIELDS WILL BE PRETTY STABLE AWAY FROM
THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH FOR
MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY, BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL WILL MAINLY COME IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS
WITH A LITTLE MORE LIGHTNING AS DRY AIR GETS INVOLVED IN THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT. LIGHTNING OR NOT, RAINFALL RATES
WILL BE EFFICIENT AS THE STORM SYSTEM IS STILL WORKING WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND RAINFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE
EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY COMMON. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MUCH
OF ARKANSAS CAN EXPECT 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING AT THIS TIME BECAUSE THE RAINFALL WILL FALL
OVER THE COURSE OF 72 HOURS, AND WE HAVEN'T HAD A WHOLE LOT OF
RAIN LATELY, SO THE SOIL AND ACTIVE VEGETATION WILL PROBABLY
HANDLE MOST OF IT WITHOUT ANY PROBLEMS. LOCALIZED/ISOLATED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS WELL LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
BEHIND BETA, THE TRANSITION FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM MEANS THAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
THE STATE QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN, BUT NOT BECAUSE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE, WE'LL ACTUALLY
GET WARMER PRETTY QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S,
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
ON SATURDAY, THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN A WARM DAY ACROSS ARKANSAS, BUT IT WILL ALSO DRAW GULF
MOISTURE BACK UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT, WE MAY
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES HOLDING IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE
WHERE MOISTURE RETURNS THE QUICKEST. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH COULD
SEND A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE.
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS MOVING
ALONG THIS COLD FRONT LATE ON SATURDAY, BUT AS THIS IS GETTING
PRETTY OUT THERE IN THE FORECAST, DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN DRASTICALLY CHANGE
THE TIMING AND NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BY THE TIME IT
GETS HERE. BEST THING TO THINK OF RIGHT NOW, IS TO KEEP YOUR EYES
OPEN FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES ON STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND IN LATER FORECASTS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... IT WILL
ACTUALLY GET QUITE COLD, BUT THAT AIR WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAVANAUGH
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...51
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