200
FXUS64 KLZK 181842
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1242 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 134 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
-DRY AIR AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
-INCREASING WILDFIRE DANGER, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
-COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
THE H500 PATTERN WILL REMAIN ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS ELONGATED RIDGING PERSISTS FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ACROSS THE GULF. A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL LIFT FROM THE SW US TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
FOR THURSDAY, ONE OF THE H500 TROUGHS WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE WITH A CORRESPONDING SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG SFC WINDS DUE TO THE ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE. VERY DRY AIR WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF W/N ARKANSAS. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR RECORD
LEVELS THU AFTERNOON, MIN RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DIP DOWN BELOW
20 PERCENT. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WILDFIRE
DANGER AND POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. THE H500 RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL
BEGIN TO CONTRACT AND DRIFT FARTHER SW WHICH WILL ALLOW A WEAK
SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, MUCH LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AND QPF IS EXPECTED. BUT, THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE OUT OF THE NW AND SFC RIDGING WILL
EXPAND SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS. OVERCAST CONDITIONS REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS COLD
FRONT ALONG THE I-30 CORRIDOR. WINDS TO REMAIN S/SW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE LOWER CIGS AND GUSTIER WESTERLIES MOVE IN NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONCERN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OZARKS AND OUACHITAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE LIKELY.
ADDITIONALLY, THURSDAY AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS COULD MAKE FOR
DANGEROUS BURNING CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR SEVERAL NORTHERN LOCATIONS AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS. BURNING IN
THESE LOCATIONS IS NOT RECOMMENDED FOR THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 56 77 43 62 / 10 10 0 10
CAMDEN AR 60 78 47 70 / 10 10 0 10
HARRISON AR 52 75 36 59 / 0 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 59 76 45 67 / 10 10 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 59 78 46 65 / 10 10 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 62 79 52 71 / 0 10 10 20
MOUNT IDA AR 57 77 42 68 / 10 10 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 51 76 36 59 / 10 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 59 76 44 62 / 10 30 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 60 79 47 67 / 0 10 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 54 79 41 65 / 10 10 0 0
SEARCY AR 55 77 42 64 / 10 10 0 10
STUTTGART AR 60 76 46 65 / 10 10 0 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ004-005-
103-112-113-203-212-213-313.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...78
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