237
FXUS64 KLZK 151151
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
551 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
-VERY DRY AIR WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY
-ADDITIONAL SURGES OF DRY AND COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
-COMBINATION OF VERY DRY AIR AND ELEVATED WINDS MAY CREATE SOME MORE
SIGNIFICANT WILD FIRE CONCERNS ON SATURDAY
-COLDEST AIR SETTLES ACROSS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MANY AREAS SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SINGLE DIGIT
LOWS MAY BE SEEN FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS. WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH
ZERO UP NORTH...AND SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS FURTHER SOUTH SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
AFTER A BREEZY WED IN WAKE OF A NEW COLD FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IS MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS THU MORNING...CAUSING THE WINDS
TO GRADUALLY LESSEN EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN MUCH
CALMER FOR THIS THU AFTERNOON...BUT VERY DRY AIR WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST FRONT. THESE VERY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED WILD FIRE THREAT...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.
THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST BY TONIGHT...WITH SRLY FLOW RETURNING
THROUGH FRI MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER NEW COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A NEW SHORTWAVE DROPS SE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL PASS SE ON SAT...WITH EVEN MORE
COLD...DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE. WINDS AND RH LEVELS MAY
APPROACH MORE CRITICAL LEVELS ON SAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN
MORE SIGNIFICANT WILD FIRE CONCERNS. RH VALUES MAY DIP BELOW 25
PERCENT...AND WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED AT 10-20 MPH SUSTAINED...AND
GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH AT TIMES.
WITH THIS LATEST COLD SURGE ON SAT...WELL BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS
WILL BE SEEN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS BY SUN
MORNING MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS...MAYBE EVEN SOME
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE. WIND CHILL VALUES SUN MAY DROP TO NEAR ZERO
AT TIMES ACROSS NRN SECTIONS...AND SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FURTHER
SOUTH.
THE DRY FORECAST WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHIFT SOME TO THE EAST BY LATE IN THE FORECAST...WITH SOME RELAXING
IN THE NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. SRLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE
REGION...WITH SOME INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR
SOME RAINFALL LOOK TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS A RESULT...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SEEING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS FAIRLY LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
OTHER THAN SOME LLWS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, NO OTHER AVIATION
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR, ASIDE FROM
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TERMINALS LATER
TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD, GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 45 34 52 28 / 0 0 10 0
CAMDEN AR 49 33 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 46 34 47 24 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 49 33 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 47 33 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 48 35 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 50 34 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 45 31 48 24 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 43 33 51 28 / 0 0 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 47 33 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 48 31 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 45 29 53 26 / 0 0 10 0
STUTTGART AR 45 33 53 31 / 0 0 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...77
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