683
FXUS64 KLZK 061114
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
514 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY
- COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT ON SATURDAY ON NORTHERLY WINDS
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO UPPER 40S. ELEVATION APPEARED TO MATTER MOST REGARDING
PREDAWN TEMPS WITH PROTECTED VALLEY LOCATION COLDER (DUE TO CALM
WINDS/DECOUPLING), MEANWHILE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WARMER
(DUE TO LIGHT WRLY WINDS). TODAY, WINDS WILL BE WRLY THROUGH
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NW
THEN N AND BECOME GUSTY HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
TIME FRAME. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID
60S (NRN/ERN AR), TO LOWER 70S (CNTRL), TO THE MID 70S (S/SW AR).
SLIGHTLY COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT ON SATURDAY THANKS TO
N/NERLY WINDS BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSING SURFACE
HIGH TO OUR N. HIGH TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER/MID 40S (E/NE AR), TO LOWER 50S (CNTRL), TO UPPER 50S (SW
AR). WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BEYOND SATURDAY.
ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NWRLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SWRLY
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A COMPACT, BUT
WEAKENING, UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL PROPAGATE OUT OF MEXICO INTO SRN
PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUOUSLY WEAKEN OVER TIME
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT PASSES OVER THE STATE. POP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LOCALLY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEW POINT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S, THUS THINKING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS LOW HOWEVER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT OVER FAR SRN AR. QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR IMPRESSIVE EITHER
WITH AMOUNTS UP TO ONE HALF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD. LLWS AT KHRO AND KBPK WILL PERSIST THROUGH 16Z AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS POSSIBLE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS TAF SITES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PERSIST AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 68 31 47 30 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 76 36 57 35 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 62 30 53 35 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 74 36 55 35 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 72 33 51 33 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 74 36 54 36 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 75 35 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 63 28 50 32 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 65 31 44 30 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 73 34 51 33 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 71 33 55 35 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 70 31 49 29 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 68 33 49 33 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...70
AVIATION...76
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