122
FXUS64 KLZK 212251 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
451 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
-LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PRECEDE DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
-MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION IS PROMOTING SOME SHOWERY
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH ACROSS ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. COVERAGE
OF THESE SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LESSEN GOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MOST ACTIVITY FINISHED BY DAYBREAK. SKIES
WILL BE CLEARING GOING THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, WITH SOME GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES TODAY, WITH READINGS TOWARDS NORMAL
OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S
AND 30S. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE COLDEST
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT (UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S) AND
MONDAY. DAILY AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS OUT OF GENERALLY THE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. SOME PERIODIC ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE WINDIEST DAYS (PEAKING
SUNDAY), AS WIDESPREAD MINIMUM RH'S HOVER IN THE 20S AND 30S
PERCENT THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP ANY
CONCERNS AT BAY.
SOME POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES BEGIN TO CREEP INTO THE
REGION BY TUESDAY, AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE AMPLIFIES EAST
OF THE REGION, WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING AMPLIFYING IN RESPONSE. WHILE
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE ROCKIES, EXPECT WARMING
CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF ARCTIC ORIGIN DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OF THE
ROCKIES MID-WEEK WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH IN TERMS OF A
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND POSSIBLY WETTER OUTLOOK LATE NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS POINT, ENSEMBLES SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN REGARDS TO
HOW AMPLIFIED THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME AND, IN TURN, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD. THE PATH OF AMPLIFICATION WILL
ALSO DICTATE WHETHER THE FAVORED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT IS AN ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY THAT, EVEN IF IT COMES TO
FRUITION, MAY NOT GUARANTEE THE STATE COULD SEE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, COOLER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO MID-WEEK ARE FAVORED FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 449 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL...DRY AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT INTO
SUN...WITH SOME BREEZY NRLY WINDS EXPECTED INTO SUN AFTERNOON.
THESE WINDS WILL START TO RELAX LATE ON SUN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 28 46 22 43 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 33 54 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 26 42 19 43 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 33 51 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 32 51 27 47 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 35 53 29 48 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 31 51 25 52 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 25 44 19 43 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 30 45 24 41 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 32 52 26 46 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 31 51 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 28 49 22 45 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 31 49 26 43 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...62
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