604
FXUS64 KLZK 151112 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
612 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL AGAIN ON
THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF THE STATE.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND, INCLUDING
POSSIBLE FROST CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
RECENT RADAR IMGRY DEPICTED A DECAYING QLCS MOVING ENE ACRS ERN OK,
AND WL LKLY BE APPROACHING NWRN AR NEAR 12Z THURS MRNG. SOME
LINGERING PRECIP ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACRS NWRN TO NRN AR THRU THE
DAY THURS.
THURS THRU FRI, A PROGRESSIVE H500 SHORTWAVE TROF WL QUICKLY DIG
SWRD INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION, W/ AN ASCTD SFC
PRESSURE DIPOLE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CONUS, W/ STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC
SFC FLOW MOVING NEWRD THRU THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, AND A STRONG
TRAILING CONTINENTAL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SWRD THRU
THE NRN TO CNTRL PLAINS. TIME OF ARRIVAL ON THIS CDFRNT REMAINS
CONSISTENT, W/ THE FRNT MOVING INTO NWRN AR THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD
THURS NIGHT, AND QUICKLY SWEEPING ACRS THE STATE FRI MRNG TO EARLY
AFTN.
LOW CHANCE POPS WL PERSIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRNT
INITIALLY OVER NWRN AR THRU THURS NIGHT, BUT WL TAPER OFF QUICKLY
THRU THE DAY FRI AS THE CDFRNT PUSHES THROUGH, USHERING IN
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR.
WITH NO APPRECIABLE PRECIP EXPECTED ACRS SRN TO SERN AR, THERE IS
SOME CONCERN FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL WILDFIRE DANGER OVER
PORTIONS OF SERN AR FRI AFTN AS THIS FRNT MOVES THROUGH. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH, AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE FCST, ALONGSIDE
MIN AFTN RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT, AND ERC VALUES BETWEEN
THE 75TH TO 85TH PERCENTILE.
CONCERNING WEEKEND LOW TEMPERATURES, MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 40S,
AND ISOLATED UPPER 30S REMAIN POSSIBLE ACRS PORTIONS OF NRN AR SAT
AND PARTICULARLY SUN MRNGS, W/ LATEST NBM 10TH PERCENTILE GUIDANCE
ONLY HIGHLIGHTS SOME ISOLATED REGIONS IN THE UPPER 30S ACRS NRN AR
ON SUN MRNG. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WL BEGIN TO DRIFT EWRD, W/ SRLY SFC FLOW RESUMING, AND AREA
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARDS ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
INTERMITTENT MVFR TO IFR CONDNS WERE NOTED ACRS NRN TO WRN AR NEAR
12Z THURS MRNG. EXPECT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, W/ CONDNS IMPROVING THEREAFTER. THRU THE DAY,
SWRLY WINDS WL PREVAIL, W/ SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE. LATE
IN THE PD, NEAR 16/06Z, A STRONG CDFRNT WL MOVE THRU THE REGION,
W/ GUSTY NWRLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED INTO FRI MRNG.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 91 54 65 45 / 10 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 92 59 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 86 47 59 41 / 40 80 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 91 54 67 44 / 0 0 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 91 59 67 46 / 0 0 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 92 63 71 47 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 90 48 65 41 / 0 10 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 87 50 60 43 / 30 70 0 0
NEWPORT AR 91 56 66 45 / 0 10 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 92 58 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 91 53 66 44 / 10 40 0 0
SEARCY AR 91 56 67 44 / 0 0 10 0
STUTTGART AR 93 59 69 46 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...72
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