429
FXUS64 KLZK 040750
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
250 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
- HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL, EASTERN,
NORTH, AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WITHIN THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE BRIEFLY STRONG TO SEVERE.
- TEMPERATURES THROUGH HOVER JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK,
THEN WARM INTO MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT HEADLINES POSSIBLE BY
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE STATE
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE STATE IN THE 2 TO 2.5
INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES SEEN MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE
AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A LOOK AT POINT SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOWS STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND WET
MICROBURSTS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AND LITTLE TO NO STEERING
ALOFT WITHIN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. ALL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED DUE TO LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING OF THE DAY AROUND SUNSET. DUE TO HIGH DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE
70-74 RANGE AND HIGH IN THE LOWER 90S WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX
VALUES UP TO 110, THEREFORE, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
SAME AREA AS FRIDAY.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US THAT LEAD
TO HAZARDOUS HEAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND FLATTEN TODAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS KANSAS LATER TODAY WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS AND CAMS SHOWING AN MCS(MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX) WILL BE GENERATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. HI-RES CAMS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT A LOOK AT
OVERNIGHT CAMS THE MCS DECAYING LARGELY AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON LATER THIS EVENING AS IT AS MOVES AWAY FROM
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TREK ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH AND RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
EXPANDS TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN US. THIS WILL LEAD
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER 90S BY THE LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS TREND HOLDS, HEAT HEADLINES MAY AGAIN
BE NEED ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
ON TOP OF THE EXPANDING RIDGE, A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE
SEEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE BRINGING
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE
DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS ACROSS THE STATE. MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST AT TAF SITES. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF
SITES HAVING THE GREAT POTENTIAL TO SEE IMPACTS FROM TSRA. MAIN
AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR/IFR, FREQUENT
LIGHTING, AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 93 74 93 73 / 50 20 50 50
CAMDEN AR 92 73 93 73 / 70 10 30 40
HARRISON AR 90 71 88 70 / 40 30 60 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 92 74 94 74 / 70 10 30 50
LITTLE ROCK AR 93 76 94 75 / 60 10 40 50
MONTICELLO AR 94 75 93 75 / 50 10 40 40
MOUNT IDA AR 90 73 92 73 / 60 20 30 50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 90 72 89 71 / 30 30 50 50
NEWPORT AR 95 75 94 74 / 30 10 50 50
PINE BLUFF AR 93 74 93 74 / 50 10 40 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 93 75 93 74 / 40 20 40 60
SEARCY AR 94 74 94 73 / 50 20 40 50
STUTTGART AR 94 76 94 75 / 50 10 40 50
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ006>008-014>017-
024-025-031>034-039-043>047-055>057-064-065-069-121>123-130-138-
230-238.
DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...76
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