934
FXUS64 KLZK 170452
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1052 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
-NEW FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE STATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH
DRIER/COOLER AIR RETURNING. A REINFORCING SURGE OF VERY COLD/DRY AIR
ARRIVES ON SATURDAY
-COMBINATION OF VERY DRY AIR AND ELEVATED WINDS MAY CREATE SOME MORE
SIGNIFICANT WILD FIRE CONCERNS ON SATURDAY
-COLDEST AIR SETTLES ACROSS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MANY AREAS SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SINGLE DIGIT
LOWS MAY BE SEEN FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS. WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH
ZERO UP NORTH...AND SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS FURTHER SOUTH SUNDAY
-RAIN CHANCES/WARMUP COULD RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
LIGHT SRLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED LATE THU AND INTO EARLY THIS MORNING
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTED EAST. THESE SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING...BUT A NEW COLD FRONT TO THE NW WILL DROP SE INTO THE
STATE LATER THIS MORNING...DROPPING SE OF AR BY THIS EVENING. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES SE TODAY...THERE MAY BE SOME VERY LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT OVER NERN SECTIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE DIVES SE
TOWARD THIS PORTION OF AR. GIVEN VERY LIMITED MOISTURE LEVELS...KEEP
POPS LOW AT THIS TIME.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TONIGHT IN WAKE OF THIS NEW FRONT.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE ON SAT AS THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE AXIS DROP SE OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THIS HAPPENS...AND WITH DEWPTS
CRATERING DOWN FROM THE 20S TODAY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN
BELOW ZERO BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THESE VERY DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED
WITH INCREASING WINDS MAY CREATE ENHANCED WILD FIRE CONDITIONS ON
SAT AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING...KEEPING MIN RH VALUES
FROM DROPPING AS CONSIDERABLY AS THEY COULD.
WITH THIS LATEST COLD SURGE ON SAT...WELL BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS
WILL BE SEEN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS BY SUN
MORNING MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS...MAYBE EVEN SOME
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE. WIND CHILL VALUES SUN MAY DROP TO NEAR ZERO
AT TIMES ACROSS NRN SECTIONS...AND SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FURTHER
SOUTH.
THE DRY FORECAST WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHIFT SOME TO THE EAST BY LATE IN THE FORECAST...WITH SOME RELAXING
IN THE NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. SRLY SFC FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE
REGION...WITH SOME INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR
SOME RAINFALL LOOK TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS A RESULT MID
WEEK...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SEEING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS
FAIRLY LOW THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE
ENTIRE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM LATE FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE NOTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES OF KHRO AND KBPK, THUS TEMPO GROUPS HAVE
BEEN CREATED TO CAPTURE THIS POSSIBILITY FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. ALL
TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS
TO 30 KNOTS BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE SURFACE WINDS LOSE
THEIR GUSTING CONDITION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 28 39 16 40 / 20 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 29 44 18 46 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 24 34 12 44 / 20 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 30 41 17 45 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 31 41 19 43 / 10 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 33 47 22 45 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 29 42 15 47 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 24 35 12 44 / 20 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 29 39 17 39 / 20 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 31 44 18 44 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 28 42 15 47 / 20 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 27 41 14 42 / 20 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 31 41 18 41 / 10 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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