820
FXUS64 KLZK 311128
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
628 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
-NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY
-SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WED NIGHT/THURSDAY
-STORMS POSSIBLE SAT/SAT NIGHT, INCLUDING SOME STRONG/SEVERE
-COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
MAIN STORY THRU THE IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM REMAINS WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE FA THRU THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS. AREA TEMPS
IN THE MID 80S, OR APPROXIMATELY 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE-AVERAGE, ARE
EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS, W/ SOME LOCATIONS NEARING DAILY RECORD
HIGHS. IN ADDITION TO SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS, GUSTY SRLY WINDS WL
PREVAIL AHEAD OF PERSISTENT LEE SFC CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLE. AFTN WINDS OF 15-20 KTS, AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS WL
BE POSSIBLE THRU THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BEYOND THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
TRENDS IN QPF CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE FA, W/ WIDESPREAD
TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES THRU SUN NIGHT.
WED/THURS WL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE AS AN H500
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY TRAVERSE THROUGH MEAN FLOW, EJECTING
OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU AND PIVOTING INTO THE MIDWEST VCTY WED
NIGHT THRU THURS. AFOREMENTIONED SFC CYCLONIC FLOW WL COME INTO
PHASE W/ THE UPPER SHORTWAVE, AND QUICKLY ADVANCE NEWRD, W/ ASCTD
PRECIP FM THIS SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT WED AND INTO
THURS.
SOME OVERLAP OF MARGINAL FCST BUOYANCY (GENERALLY <1000 J/KG) AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 KTS MAY SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY, AND AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE
STORMS THURS, BUT A MORE WIDESPREAD RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
FRI, A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED AS THE REGION FALLS B/W
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS. SOME ISOLATED WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SHOWERS
MAY RESULT THRU THE DAY, BUT ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, NEW LEE SFC CYCLONIC FLOW
WL EXTEND ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS, ACCOMPANIED BY A HIGH-AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT. THRU THE DAY FRI AND INTO SAT, THESE TWO
FEATURES WL COME INTO PHASE, AND QUICKLY EJECT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TRAILING SYNOPTIC CDFRNT WL EXTEND SW INTO THE SRN
CNTRL US BY SAT MRNG, AND WL QUICKLY SWEEP THRU THE REGION,
DRIVING ANOTHER RD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FA.
SIMILAR TO THURS, MARGINAL OVERLAP OF BUOYANCY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CDFRNT, W/ STRONGER SHEAR
DISPLACED TO THE WNW UNDER THE PRIMARY JET AXIS. ONCE AGAIN, AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL ACCOMPANY THE
CDFRNT PASSAGE, BUT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. A MAJORITY OF THE QPF IN THE 7 DAY FORECAST IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR W/ THIS SYSTEM, W/ B/W ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
FALLING ACRS AR, AND GREATER TOTALS FAVORED OVER WRN TO NWRN AR.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRNT, CONDNS LOOK TO RESET TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES THRU THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL, INCLUDING LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BROAD
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL EXTEND OVER THE CNTRL CONUS, W/ H500 RIDGING
AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN US, PROMOTING DRIER WEATHER CONDNS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
LOW STRATUS WILL MOVE IN FROM SW EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS IN
SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL DROP TO MVFR BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR BY
AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL PERSIST IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN TERMINALS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING BY MID MORNING. GUSTY
S WINDS WILL LAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. LLWS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS NORTH AND WEST AR
OVERNIGHT, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 85 64 86 67 / 0 0 10 10
CAMDEN AR 85 62 86 65 / 0 0 10 10
HARRISON AR 83 63 84 66 / 10 20 30 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 84 62 85 64 / 0 0 10 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 85 64 86 67 / 0 0 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 85 65 86 67 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 83 62 84 64 / 0 0 10 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 85 62 86 66 / 0 10 20 30
NEWPORT AR 84 65 85 68 / 0 0 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 85 63 86 66 / 0 0 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 85 62 86 66 / 0 0 10 30
SEARCY AR 85 61 86 65 / 0 0 10 10
STUTTGART AR 84 65 85 67 / 0 0 10 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...78
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