429
FXUS64 KMEG 072344
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
644 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH BY
MID-WEEK.
- DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES CLIMBING ABOVE 100F BY MID-WEEK, LIKELY REQUIRING HEAT
HEADLINES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
AN UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER NEBRASKA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING. LIFT AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN PUSHING INTO THE
MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA. VERY MUGGY AIR HAS RETURNED TO THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. SHEAR IS
FAIRLY WEAK WITH 0-6KM VALUES OF AROUND 25 KTS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR, MAINLY IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA (LEVEL
1 OF 5), WHICH COVERS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.
HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, ALONG WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, IS ALSO LIKELY WITH
PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES. CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH, BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN AMOUNTS AND TIMING TO JUSTIFY AT THIS TIME.
STORMS WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS OF
HEATING, THOUGH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING, ISOLATED
STORMS COULD OCCUR ANYTIME OVERNIGHT.
HI-RES MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A MCS OVER
SOUTHEAST KS AND SOUTHWEST MO LATER TONIGHT. THIS MCS WILL MOVE
ESE TOWARD THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH IN THE MORNING,
LIKELY WEAKENING BUT PROBABLY SENDING OUT SOME OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. THE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY REIGNITE LATER IN THE DAY
AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
70S. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID-SOUTH, GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
TN/MS LINE, WHERE AFTERNOON SBCAPES WILL CLIMB OVER 2500 J/KG.
ONCE AGAIN, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY WITH PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL START TO WANE BY TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG THE TN RIVER. THE
BIGGER WEATHER STORY STARTS TO BECOME THE BUILDING HEAT AS UPPER
RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TOWARD MID-WEEK.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 90 BY TUESDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUING TO ADVECT VERY MUGGY AIR INTO THE MID-SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES ABOVE 100F BY TUESDAY, AND HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED BY
MID TO LATE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND MAY
LINGER AROUND THE MID-SOUTH THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERHAPS A BIT OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A BAND OF SHRAS AND TSRAS IS LIFTING NORTH OF JBR AND MKL, WITH
ANOTHER BAND APPROACHING MEM. MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS, THOUGH TUP AND JBR HAVE A
LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY SHOWS AN
UPWARD TREND IN CEILINGS. CONSEQUENTLY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARRIVING SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE AND LIFTING TO VFR BY MID-MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY ENTERING FROM
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING, SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN
REDUCED TO PROB30, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOCUSED ON MKL
AND TUP DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING.
AC3
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY, FURTHER MITIGATING FIRE RISK. EVEN AS HIGH
HEAT RETURNS MID-WEEK, ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...AC3
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