776
FXUS64 KMEG 091721
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1121 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
- DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
- A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY BEFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS ARE UNDERWAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE MID-SOUTH. GIVEN THE NBM'S RECENT COLD BIAS, ALONG WITH
PERSISTENT SUNSHINE TODAY, OPTED TO RAISE AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
TODAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL TREK TOWARDS THE
MID-SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S. RAIN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
LOW RAINFALL TOTALS TO THE AREA WITH AMOUNTS REMAINING LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH. SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING,
ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA. A
DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE ON
FRIDAY, BRINGING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK INTO THE
FORECAST.
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS. LARGE MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO BE PRESENT
IN REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM AND ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION. THE GEFS
FAVORS A SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM WITH NEAR-CONSTANT RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT, STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL TOPS OUT AT JUST OVER 2 INCHES. THE ENS CONTINUES TO
DEPICT A FASTER MOVING SYSTEM THAT EXITS THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. ASSOCIATED RAIN TOTALS ARE LOWER THAN THE GEFS, AROUND
1.75 INCHES. OVERALL LREF PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
OF RAIN FALLING BY SUNDAY EVENING, ONLY A 30% CHANCE EXISTS.
HOWEVER, THE NBM CAME IN SHOWING A WIDE SWATH OF 3" + FOR THIS
SAME TIMEFRAME. GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER
THAN 2" OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND, LOWERED QPF TO ALIGN WITH ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SYSTEM VERIFIES, THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WILL BE WET AND UNSETTLED. LUCKILY, THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO DRY OUT AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE MID-SOUTH.
ANS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE (>90%) IN VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS,
SUPPORTED BY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS (5KTS OR
LESS) THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS A DEEPENING LOW
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REACH 10-12 KTS TOMORROW AT JBR, MEM AND
MKL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LLWS IS EXPECTED AT JBR FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THIS PERIOD AS MINRH STAYS ABOVE
50 PERCENT. WETTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT, LASTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JDS
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