901
FXUS64 KMEG 241716
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1216 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MARGINAL (1/5) TO SLIGHT RISK (2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN, BUT LARGE HAIL AND A
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS
LATE SUNDAY.
- CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ON MONDAY, WITH AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE IN SOME LOCATIONS. PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE MID-SOUTH,
WITH SOME SIGNS OF CONTINUAL WEAKENING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE LEADING EDGE OF STORMS HAS BEGUN TO STALL A BIT, BUT
RESURGENCE IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. 12Z CAMS INITIALIZED FAIRLY POORLY, SO LITTLE
CONFIDENCE WAS GAINED ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF TODAY'S EVENT.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DOES SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS
LINE DRIFTS TO THE EAST, WITH SBCAPE VALUES ALREADY OVER 500 J/KG
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES > 6. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE
VALUES ARE STILL A BIT LACKLUSTER, WHICH MAKES THE EVENT STILL
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL. IF STRONG STORMS DO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE OVER
NORTHERN MS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT,
WITH GENERAL CLEARING EXPECTED AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES. THE MAIN
QUESTION FOR POPS TOMORROW WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TONIGHT, WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS INTO TOMORROW. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
TREND DOWNWARD OVERALL, WITH POPS LINGERING THROUGH AROUND MID-
MORNING, BUT LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GENERALLY SPEAKING, I TEND TO FAVOR THIS OVERALL TREND
AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN THE LATEST
FORECAST PACKAGE. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, POPS FOR SUNDAY HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE PLACEMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IF THIS BOUNDARY DOES STALL
SOUTH OF OUR AREA, I THINK A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA COULD
REMAIN DRY INTO SUNDAY AS WELL. A FEW MODELS DO WANT TO BRING A
WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF THINGS WERE TO
PAN OUT, A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
BY MONDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND BRING A MUCH WARMER AND MOISTURE-
RICH ENVIRONMENT BACK TO THE AREA. OVER THE SAME TIMELINE, AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BEFORE QUICKLY
PULLING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE WE ARE STILL SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY AND OUTSIDE OF MUCH OF THE CAM GUIDANCE, LREF JOINT
PROBABILITIES FOR FAVORABLE CAPE AND SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-60% RANGE. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SLIGHT
DISCONNECT IN THE TIMING OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY VERSUS
MAXIMIZED SHEAR POTENTIAL, BUT I WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF THESE
BECOME BETTER ALIGNED IN FUTURE FORECAST RUNS. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW
A PRETTY POTENT 700MB JET STRENGTHENING MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING, WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE ALREADY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALL STORM MODES
(DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, A FEW TORNADOES) DO REMAIN ON THE
TABLE WITH THIS SET-UP. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SPC CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT A
15% AND 30% RISK AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH.
BY TUESDAY, UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL GO SOMEWHAT ZONAL, KEEPING SOME
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE IS A BIT
SPREAD ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY,
WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN, LIKE THE ENS HAS, WOULD FAVOR
KEEPING MEDIUM CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IF THE
GEFS WERE TO PLAY OUT, WITH A QUICKER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN,
THIS WOULD INTRODUCE DRIER CONDITIONS BY MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL, WITH
LITTLE FORCING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND AS THINGS STAND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHT'S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO AT TUP THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE PROBABILITIES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION AT REMAINING SITES DUE TO
A RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. HREF PROBABILITIES STILL
REMAIN HIGH (>60% CHANCE) FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA,
BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAIN. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, KEEPING ANY FIRE
DANGER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CJC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page