007
FXUS64 KMEG 151759
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1259 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2019
DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1012 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2019/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BARRY IS OVER WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTH. MOST OF THE RAIN OVER THE REGION IS CURRENTLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE MORE RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.
ARS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2019/
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY'S SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWEST AR DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. UNLIKE SUNDAY MORNING,
COLDER CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS WERE NOTED OVER THE SURFACE LOW. IN
ADDITION, GOES EAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT
EXTENDING FROM NORTH TX, ACROSS SOUTHERN AR, EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHWEST MS. THIS DRY SLOT WAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION AND HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER NORTHEAST MS.
SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT TODAY IF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS BREAKS DEVELOP UNDER THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT. GIVEN THE
STRONGLY BACKED FLOW EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.
REGARDING FLOOD THREAT, OVERALL QPF HAS BEEN REVISED DOWNWARD FROM
EARLIER FORECASTS. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ARE STILL POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH TRAINING RAIN BANDS.
SIMILAR TO THE TORNADO THREAT, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY BE
MODULATED TO A GREAT DEGREE BY LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. A DAY TO PAY
EXTRA ATTENTION TO GOES IMAGERY.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE SURFACE LOW WILL FILL AS THE 500MB
CIRCULATION OPENS AND LIFTS INTO THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY.
TUESDAY'S RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE MORE HYBRID TROPICAL-MID
LATITUDE CONVECTION. SOME TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL TROF, AIDED BY
INCREASED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING OVER WEST TN, AIDED BY A 45
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.
FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF BARRY'S LAST REMNANTS WEDNESDAY, A BROAD
5940M 500MB HEIGHT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL BLENDED GUIDANCE DEPICTS LATE WEEK SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S, ACCOMPANIED BY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S. HEAT INDICES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER, AND THEN OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PWB
AVIATION
TD BARRY WILL IMPACT THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN BANDS
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE REGION WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDES TEMPOS ANYWHERE
EXPECT KTUP. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DETERIORATING AGAIN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR OVERNIGHT.
LATEST CAMS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED
TSRAS WILL DEVELOP FOR CENTRAL AR INTO THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
HAVE INTRODUCED SOME TEMPOS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. WINDS
WILL BE SSE SLOWLY VEERING TO SW BY THE END OF PERIOD WITH OCNL
GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
SJM
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR PHILLIPS.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-ST.
FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALCORN-CALHOUN-
CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PANOLA-
PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-
UNION-YALOBUSHA.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON MS-DESOTO-
MARSHALL-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR HARDIN.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
CROCKETT-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-
LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
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