560
FXUS64 KMEG 240452
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1152 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON MONDAY, MAINLY FOR
AREAS IN THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, BUT EXTREME HEAT IS NOT
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
A 596 DAM RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, PLACING
THE MID-SOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BRING A SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TODAY, BECOMING EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITHIN THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR IN THE DELTA, AMOUNTS WILL
BE NEGLIGIBLE. AS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS, THE NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW
A 7 DEGREE SPREAD AMONGST THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO ISSUES IN MODELING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION. REGARDLESS, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S. AS FOR TUESDAY, LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH MID-MORNING BUT THE LATTER HALF OF
THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES MIDWEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP DAILY RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST. THE GREATEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT GIVEN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND FORECAST SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG A FEW
STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER AS
WE MOVE CLOSER TO MIDWEEK. BEYOND THURSDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE,
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY,
GUIDANCE BRINGS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BACK IN THE FORECAST
WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING HEADLINE CRITERIA BY SATURDAY. UNTIL
THEN, THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING 105 + HEAT INDEX VALUES IS LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT.
ANS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
SCATTERED -SRHA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN MO OVERNIGHT,
MAINLY AFFECTING JBR TO MEM TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS PRECIP WILL FALL
FROM HIGH-BASED CLOUDS NEAR FL100, OVERLYING A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYER. IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. 00Z HREF REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS IN SHOWING THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF TSRA
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AR INTO THE ARKLAMISS TUESDAY MORNING.
VFR WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON, BEHIND THE EXITED -SHRA. A
REPEAT OF -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, THOUGH
THE SIGNAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN CURRENT GUIDANCE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED MONDAY MORNING DUE TO ADVANCING CLOUD
COVER AND ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS. THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL FEATURE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 45 PERCENT AND
DAILY WETTING RAIN CHANCES. AS SUCH, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE AT
A MINIMUM.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...ANS
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