600
FXUS64 KMEG 010521
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1121 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
COOL-DOWN TO NEAR-NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY MID TO EARLY NEXT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH UNDERNEATH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. WINDS WERE ABLE TO
VEER TO A SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION WEDNESDAY, LETTING WARMER AIR
FROM THE WEST ADVECT INTO THE REGION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 50S AND 60S
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO
DECAY THURSDAY, SPREADING MOMENTUM EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS
INTO FRIDAY. THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW AND DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE LOW, ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND OVER A WARM FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT
RAIN WILL FALL IN AN ISENTROPICALLY-FORCED BAND OVER EASTERN
ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LASTING
OVERNIGHT. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS HAVE CLIMBED IN THESE AREAS TODAY
WITH ANYWHERE BETWEEN .25" AND .50" OF RAINFALL EXPECTED.
TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, CONVECTIVE CHANCES INCREASE FROM
BOTH WARM ADVECTION AND A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, UPPER PROFILES DO
NOT APPEAR ALL TOO SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED, DEEP (THUNDER
POTENTIAL) CONVECTION WITH MUCAPE REMAINING AT OR BELOW 250 J/KG
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. LOOKING CLOSER AT FORECAST UPPER AIR
PROFILES, LOW LEVEL THETA E VALUES STRUGGLE TO RISE ENOUGH TO
BEAT OUT THE LACK OF UPPER COOLING. THEREFORE, WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND A LACK OF UPPER FORCING TO COOL THEM WILL
INHIBIT HIGHER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THAT BEING SAID, A STORM
OR TWO ARE STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW.
RAINFALL TOTALS IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL DEPEND ON THE COVERAGE
OF STORMS, BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW AROUND .50" IS FORECAST FOR AREAS
EAST OF OXFORD. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD ACCOMPANY
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY STAY UNDER AN INCH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER
AIR AS THE LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST SATURDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING
WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, CLIMBING INTO THE 40S AND
50S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND MOVES EAST OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S STARTING MONDAY, LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW (20%) CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A NEW TROUGH
THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS HIGHER FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT
IN THE FORECAST. SO, EXPECT SOME CHANGES IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR A VFR FORECAST THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 8 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY LOWERING TO AROUND 15 KFT BY 06Z. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
MINIMUM RH WILL AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WILL BRING WETTING RAINFALL TO THE MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED
BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...MJ
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