929
FXUS64 KMEG 140444
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1144 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
- DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- A FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH NORTH OF I-40
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND AREA WIDE MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. LATE
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WHILE A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
NEW ENGLAND BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, SOUTHERN MISSOURI, AND
BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 50S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MID-
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY RETREAT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARM, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.
SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-40 WILL APPROACH THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES BY SUNDAY.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS
INCREASING TO AT LEAST 20 MPH WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE (50%
OR GREATER CHANCE) OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS
THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED, AND AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS INTO
THE REGION. IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN
SPREADING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IMPRESSIVE KINEMATICS WILL BE IN
PLACE, INCLUDING FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM A 120 KT
JET STREAK AND A 50 KT 850 MB LOW-LEVEL JET ADVECTING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS ENVIRONMENT,
COUPLED WITH MODERATELY STEEP TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
SURFACE-BASED CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG, AND 0-1 STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES INCREASING TO 300 M2/S2, SUGGESTS A FORCED LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MID-
SOUTH STARTING LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT, WHICH COULD BE WIDESPREAD.
LARGE HAIL AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES REMAIN AS SECONDARY THREATS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW (20-30% CHANCE) FOR A DUSTING OF SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE IF THERE IS ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND
THE STRONG COLD FRONT.
MUCH COLDER, BELOW NORMAL AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE STRONG
COLD FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A WIDESPREAD FREEZE A NEAR
CERTAINTY ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SPREAD
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT TO
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 10KTS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 06Z
TOMORROW, BRINGING INCREASED SURFACE WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS UP TO 45KTS AT JBR, MKL, AND MEM.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 30-40% EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON SATURDAY AND 40-50% WEST. FUEL
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY'S RAINFALL. THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...JAB
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