507  
FXUS64 KMEG 282137  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
337 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
A POTENTIAL HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER EVENT REMAINS ON TRACK TO  
IMPACT THE MIDSOUTH ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TORNADOES, A  
FEW STRONG AND LONG-LIVED, WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL SURGE NORTH THROUGH THE  
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING, IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING  
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. INITIAL ROUND OF  
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS WILL LIKELY ROOT IN AN ELEVATED  
LAYER, ASSOCIATED WITH A 925MB WARM FRONT SURGING NORTH FROM THE  
ARKLAMISS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRESENT A MARGINAL SEVERE  
THREAT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5  
C/KM ACCOMPANYING MUCAPE BELOW 300 J/KG.  
 
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME ROOTED IN A NEAR-SURFACE LAYER  
WILL INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, AIDED BY MODEST SURFACE  
HEATING AND DEWPOINTS RAPIDLY WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.  
DURING THIS PERIOD, CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL (CAM) CONSENSUS  
DEPICTS 850MB WIND INCREASING FROM 40 TO 60 KTS, ELONGATING  
HODOGRAPHS AND INCREASING 0-3KM HELICITY TO VALUES IN EXCESS OF  
500 M2/S2.  
 
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF LOW LEVEL  
INVERSION EROSION IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING. THIS  
WILL LARGELY DETERMINE THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE TORNADO THREAT  
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, PRIOR TO STEEP MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS.  
 
WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE ONSET TIMING OF  
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT, THE  
PARAMETER SPACE WILL BECOME QUITE CONCERNING BY EARLY TUESDAY  
EVENING, AIDED BY CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND STEEP HEIGHT  
FALLS AND STRONGLY BOWED HODOGRAPHS. LOW LCLS (CLOUD BASES) AND  
STORM MOVEMENT IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL MAKE FOR PARTICULARLY  
DANGEROUS CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT, WHERE TORNADIC STORMS APPEAR TO  
ARRIVE SUDDENLY, PRECEDED BY LITTLE IF ANY VISUAL OR AUDIBLE  
NOTICE. DEFINITELY A TIME TO KEEP A WEATHER RADIO WITH BATTERY  
BACKUP AND A FULLY-CHARGED CELL PHONE NEARBY.  
 
BEYOND TUESDAY'S SEVERE EVENT, GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS  
FORECAST FROM THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, UNDER FAST ZONAL FLOW  
ALOFT. A NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT  
LAKES ON ON SATURDAY, MODESTLY DEPRESSING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS OVER  
THE MIDSOUTH AND AIDING THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. A FEW  
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH ONLY LIMITED  
CHANCES FOR THUNDER.  
 
PWB  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 08-10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH  
THIS EVENING. BY NIGHTFALL, EXPECT A HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS TO MOVE  
IN AND FOR WINDS TO SLOW TO 03-05KTS. EXPECT RAPIDLY CHANGING  
CONDITIONS STARTING TOMORROW AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER  
TO THE REGION. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 40KT WIND SHEAR DEVELOPMENT  
AT JBR OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE REGION.  
FOR NOW, THE LLJ LOOKS TO STAY WEST OF MEM, SO LEFT THIS OUT OF  
TAF FOR NOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE LLJ TO MOVE  
SLIGHTLY EAST. GUIDANCES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF  
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST SITES BY LATE MORNING IN ADDITION TO MVFR  
CIGS.  
 
ANS  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB  
AVIATION...ANS  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TN Page
The Nexlab MS Page
The Nexlab AR Page Main Text Page