017
FXUS64 KMEG 270000
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
600 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
- NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT DROP TO BELOW-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AND 20S EACH DAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IS BRINGING
A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL LOW
STRATUS THIS MORNING, BUT IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MILD AIR CONTINUES ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH WITH MID-MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.
A MILD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SATURDAY WITH
CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH (70-90% CHANCE) OF NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE 12Z HREF
INDICATES A MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL (50-80% CHANCE) FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW STRATUS TOWARDS SUNRISE SATURDAY.
MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE
COMING TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE
UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN OF VERY COLD AIR TO THE MID-SOUTH INTO
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WITH CONFIDENCE REMAINING VERY
LOW (LESS THAN 20% CHANCE) OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POOR
INSTABILITY EXPECTED. IN ADDITION, THE PROBABILITIES FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AND IMPACTS REMAIN TOO LOW (LESS THAN 20%) ON THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
COLD TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL
VALUES AVERAGING IN THE TEENS AND 20S BY LATE MONDAY. THIS VERY
COLD AIR MASS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPERATURES FOR MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK RETURNING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
TOUGH TAFS REMAIN THIS ISSUANCE. MVFR AND INTERMITTENT IFR
STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN AROUND 04Z AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE TAF TIMEFRAME. FOG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES (2SM-4SM)
WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, AIDED BY AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONFIDENCE IS
ON THE HIGHER END (60-80%) FOR POCKETS OF DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES 1/4-1/2SM AT JBR/MKL. TEMPOS HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR
SUCH. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BEFORE PICKING UP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OUT BY 00Z.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN VERY LOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 PERCENT. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE
(50-80% CHANCE) OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC AIR FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO
45 PERCENT BY TUESDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AEH
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