302
FXUS64 KMEG 231734
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1234 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) OF
SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN, BUT
LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY, WITH AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
ANOTHER SPRING-LIKE DAY IS CURRENTLY PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES SPANNING THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. MOISTURE HAS
BEGUN TO CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER, WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY SHOWING UP ON RADAR.
THERE WILL BE A 10-15% CHANCE OF THESE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH OFF OF THE
PLAINS AND APPROACH THE MID-SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY, THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE LOSING STRENGTH AS THEY ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
SOME CAM GUIDANCE DOES HAVE THE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER OUR AREA
WITH A BIT OF A RESURGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. INSTABILITY
REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR DUE TO ANY PRECIPITATION RECEIVED IN
THE MORNING, SO CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST FOR
TOMORROW IS LOW. IF A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WERE TO
DEVELOP, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THE DAY. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO
OR TWO, MAINLY OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 1" TO 1.5" RANGE,
WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE (AROUND 1" TO 1.25" FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR).
INTO THIS WEEKEND, OUR AREA WILL REMAIN TRAPPED IN A SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY NOT
BE A WASHOUT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND, IT DOES
WARRANT 40 - 60% POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE VERY LOW, BUT A STRONG STORM
OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BY MONDAY, A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT OFF OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS,
PUSHING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING. THIS THREAT COULD PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW WITH TIMING DUE TO
THIS BEING IN THE DAY 5 FORECAST SPACE. SPC IS HIGHLIGHTING A 30%
RISK AREA ACROSS OUR NORTH, WITH A 15% RISK AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MID-SOUTH ON MONDAY. WHILE THE EXACT AREAS FOR
THE OUTLOOK WILL LIKELY MOVE AROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
FORECAST BECOMES MORE REFINED, MONDAY DOES APPEAR TO BE ONE OF
THE BETTER SEVERE WEATHER SET-UPS WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS
SPRING FOR THE AREA. AS SUCH, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
AREA IN THE COMING DAYS AND ENCOURAGE READERS TO REVIEW THEIR
SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY AND ACTION PLANS.
BY TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED BUT THERE ARE STILL
UNCERTAINTIES. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH
ON MONDAY, WITH ENS/GEPS GUIDANCE FAVORING A MORE NORTHERLY
PROGRESSION AND GEFS FAVORING A SOUTHERLY PROGRESSION. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTIES, WILL KEEP 30 TO 50% POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. CPC 6 TO 10 DAY GUIDANCE DOES FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHICH DOES AGREE
WITH LATEST FORECAST TRENDS DESPITE RUN TO RUN UNCERTAINTIES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. KNQA
HAS PICKED UP SCATTERED, CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
MS RIVER, BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO
REFRAIN FROM ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
BY 00Z. VFR AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY LLWS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, A
FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING SHRA AND TSRA
CHANCES TO JBR/MEM/MKL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
STORMS COULD PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITY IMPACTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
MARGINALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH MINRH VALUES IN THE 35 - 40% RANGE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE
WITH THESE DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...JAB
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