211
FXUS64 KMEG 142314
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
614 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
- COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE MID-70S TO LOW 80S FOR MONDAY.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
BY WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
A SOGGY BUT MUCH COOLER DAY IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ARE NOTED ALONG A BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM PARIS, TN TO CLARKSDALE, MS AS OF NOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG-AWAITED COLD FRONT, AS DEPICTED BY THE
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES, A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD POP ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON
AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER, THE WINDOW FOR OVERLAPPING
INSTABILITY AND FORCING IS ALREADY CLOSING AND WILL ONLY BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. IF A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE ABLE TO MANIFEST, DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
COOLER, DRIER AIR IS ON TRACK TO FILTER IN BEHIND THIS FRONT
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS SUCH, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BARELY CLIMB ABOVE 80 DEGREES MONDAY MORNING, WHICH IS ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JUNE. THE RESIDUAL EFFECTS OF
COOLER AIR WILL STICK AROUND ON TUESDAY AS WELL, BUT WE RETURN TO
A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (AROUND 90 DEGREES) MIDWEEK.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, FORECAST SURFACE ANALYSES PLACE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY TO DEVELOP AS SYNOPTIC FORCING, STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY ALL OVERLAP.
RIGHT NOW, THE MOST FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE
DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST DUE TO THE VERY SLOW FORWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER, IF THIS
FRONT SPEEDS UP, WE MAY STILL SEE SOME STRAGGLING STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON FOR FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. THE GOOD NEWS IS, BEHIND THIS
NEXT SYSTEM IS ANOTHER COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. A SCATTERED
4,000 FT DECK WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE/LIFT BY 12Z, WITH NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION, WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...DNM
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