581
FXUS64 KMEG 232352
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
552 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
- NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY, LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT DROP TO BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SITS OFF THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH LOW
CLOUDS, PATCHY DRIZZLE, AND ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWERS. DEWPOINTS
HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE 60 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, AND HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE
CLOUD COVER.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION,
AND WE SHOULD START TO SEE MORE SUN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER BREAKING UP
AND MIXING OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THESE NUMBERS ARE 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO FALL ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH BY
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN MAKES A SUSTAINED APPEARANCE,
WHICH COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE NBM90 GUIDANCE (UPPER
70S).
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. MONDAY'S WEATHER WILL
FEEL A WHOLE LOT DIFFERENT THAN CHRISTMAS WITH MORNING LOWS IN
THE 20S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S, AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
TRICKY TAF SET THIS GO AROUND. HOW FAR SOUTH A FRONT TO OUR NORTH
SAGS WILL INDICATE WHETHER WE'LL BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR OR MVFR
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN EXTRA TRAVEL WITH THE HOLIDAY SEASON, DECIDED TO
PREVAIL MVFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. INCREASED DEWPOINTS
HAS LEFT THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY SATURATED, THEREFORE, A FEW POP-UP
SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVAIL IN TAFS. FOG AT MKL/TUP WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, HOWEVER, DOES LOOK MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT, ALSO
AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
A 20% TO 40% CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN VERY LOW ALL WEEK
AS HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 60% TO 80% RANGE.
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A MEDIUM
TO HIGH CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...AEH
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