337
FXUS64 KMEG 121146
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
546 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
- ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH WIND CHILLS
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY TO NEAR-NORMAL BY TUESDAY,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT
IN A BRISK AND COOL NIGHT AHEAD. FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OFF IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND MID 60S. THE LLJ
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS
MOVING RATHER QUICKLY (NEARING 50 KTS) SO THIS COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA QUICKLY AND WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNSET. NO
IMPACTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE OTHER THAN
SOME ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS.
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS RESIDES BEHIND A REINFORCING FRONT THAT WILL
TAKE AIM ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE FRONT IS A BIT WEAKER, THE
TEMPERATURES RESIDING BEHIND WILL CERTAINLY PACK A PUNCH. THE
WEAKER FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO BRING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-40. THE NBM KEEPS
ATTEMPTING TO BRING IN A SMALL AND NARROW WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS FREEZING RAIN OUTCOME APPEARS TO BE HEAVILY
WEIGHTED ON THE CANADIAN MODEL, WHICH IS KNOWN FOR A WINTRY
PRECIPITATION BIAS. PROBABILITIES OF EVEN A GLAZE OF ICE (0.01")
FROM THE LREF ARE 10% OR LESS. THE ECMWF SEEMS THE LEAST
FAVORABLE OF THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT AS IT HAS THE FRONT CLEAR
OF THE MID-SOUTH BY 09Z, WHILE THE CANADIAN, AND NAM MODELS HAVE
PRECIPITATION STILL ONGOING AT THE TIME AS TEMPERATURES NEAR AND
FALL BELOW FREEZING. DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS FROM THE LREF AND
THE GFS HAVE A VERY SHALLOW WARM NOSE, WHICH WOULD BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF ICE PELLETS/SLEET. WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN LOW, BUT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR THE ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TOO WARM TO ACCUMULATE OR CAUSE IMPACTS AS DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE 60S
IN THE SOUTH.
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE FIRST COLD DAY OF OUR BRIEF COLD SNAP
AS MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S. UNFORTUNATELY,
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AROUND THE AIR MASS REMAINS TIGHT. THE NBM HAS HIGH
(>70%) PROBABILITIES NEARLY AREA WIDE ON SUNDAY FOR WIND GUSTS
25 MPH OR HIGHER. BEING A NORTH WIND, IT WILL FILTER IN COLDER
AIR AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND IN THE TEENS TO THE SOUTH. THIS MAY BE OUR FIRST
CHANCE AT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER
COLD ONE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INCHES
CLOSER TO THE REGION. THANKFULLY, WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD AND THE "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURE
WILL COINCIDE CLOSELY WITH THE AIR TEMPERATURE.
THE COLD SNAP WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS WE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. TUESDAY EVENING, A SHORTWAVE WILL DIG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD BRING SOME MOISTURE AND
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY, AS WELL AS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY DRY AND IT
MAY TAKE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN AFTER ITS
EXIT. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY,
BEYOND THEN THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD.
DNM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (90-100%) FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND NO
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. SSW WINDS WILL VEER AND BECOME NW AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT NE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z HREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-60%)
OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AT MKL AND MEM AFTER 13/06Z
WITH LESSER CHANCES AT JBR AND TUP. A SCT015 GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED
WITH CONTINUED MONITORING FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 30% FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING VERY DRY AND
COLD AIR. MINIMUM RH VALUES BEGINNING SUNDAY WILL HOVER AROUND
30%.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...SJM
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