946
FXUS64 KMEG 031705
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1205 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
- MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
80S.
- WETTER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
CALM WEATHER ONCE AGAIN GREETS US TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A LARGE AREA OF TROUGHING
PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN CANADA,
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOLER WEATHER AFTER PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION LAST WEEK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY CLIMB
INTO THE 70S WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH, MOVING TOWARDS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE
ENOUGH TO FORM SHOWERS NORTH OF THE REGION, BUT PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST, ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLIES TO ADVECT WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. THESE
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL COULD
APPROACH 25 MPH, POTENTIALLY WARRANTING A WIND ADVISORY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ALOFT, THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL RETROGRADE NORTHWARD INTO CANADA WITH A SHORTER-WAVE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDED WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME, A
CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES,
OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN CONUS IN A BROAD AREA OF 50+ KNOT,
ZONAL FLOW BY TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE, A LEE SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE HIGH PLAINS, FURTHER AIDING IN THE ADVECTION OF
HIGHER THETA E INTO THE MID-SOUTH. A COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERN TROUGHING, WILL SWING SOUTH AND INTERACT WITH THE
MOISTURE BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE CHANGE IN AIR MASS, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE ON THE
WEAKER SIDE WITH MOST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FAILING TO PRODUCE
MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 500 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. FURTHERMORE, THE
PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WILL ALSO PROVIDE
ENOUGH CINH TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BUT AN OTHERWISE MOIST
PROFILE WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. RECENT
LREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS AREA BEING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
REGIME THROUGH TUESDAY. SO, FRONTAL RAINS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FOR TUESDAY WITH
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 0.50" - 0.75" BY WEDNESDAY.
THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE EAST, EJECTING
INTO THE PLAINS, ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING CLOSER
TO THE REGION. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH. BY LATE MORNING, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
500 - 1500 J/KG MUCAPE WILL RESIDE THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE BOUNDARY MAKES ITS FINAL PUSH OUT OF THE
AREA. THERE EXISTS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
COLD FRONT REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GET THROUGH THE DAY.
THE MEAN SOLUTION CURRENTLY BRINGS THE FRONT TO THE TN/MS BORDER,
MARKING A SOUTHWARD TREND. REGARDLESS, ANYWHERE THAT WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT SEVERE
WEATHER AS 50 - 60 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OVERSPREADS THE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AT THE MOMENT, WIND AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE
MAIN THREATS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL THREAT IS LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING AS 90TH+ PERCENTILE PWATS (1.5" - 2.0") AND STORM
MOTIONS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT PROVIDE A COMBINATION OF HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND TRAINING STORMS. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN
WITH REGARDS TO THE OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT MODELS IN THIS
RANGE MAY BE FAILING TO CAPTURE LOCALIZED, CONVECTIVE-ENHANCED
RAINFALL. SO, FOR NOW A LARGE SWATH OF 1" - 2" IS FORECAST FOR
THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS WHERE CONVECTION CAN MANAGE TO TRAIN.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE INTO
THURSDAY, KICKING THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
REGION AS IT PASSES TO OUR EAST. LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING TO
OUR NORTH WILL BRING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, KEEPING COOLER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS WILL FAIL TO REACH 70 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE MID-SOUTH THURSDAY, GRADUALLY WARMING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE CUTOFF LOW TO OUR WEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT MANAGE TO BRING IT CLOSER
TOWARDS THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, MODEL SPREAD
BEGINS TO BALLOON BY SATURDAY REGARDING THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF THE WAVE. SO, PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND,
BUT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK ON
EXACT AMOUNTS AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT
30 HOURS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT KEEPING S/SW FLOW ELEVATED AT JBR, MEM, AND
MKL. WINDS AND GUSTS WILL CLIMB HIGHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 35%
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, BUT FUEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
20 FT WINDS PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HUMIDITY AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...DNM
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