771
FXUS64 KMEG 011752
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1152 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
BRIEF COOL-DOWN TO NEAR-NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-40 IN THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
- WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY THE START OF NEXT
WORKWEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
A PRETTY BENIGN WEATHER DAY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH
CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S, UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TODAY WITH DRY
WEATHER AND AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID
60S.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO QUAZI-ZONAL. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME THE PREDECESSOR TO A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, CURRENTLY OVER THE NEW MEXICO, OKLAHOMA, AND
TEXAS BORDER. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO
THE ARKLATEX REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
WILL INCREASE OUR MOISTURE PROFILE HERE IN THE MID-SOUTH,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IN THE DELTA ALONG WITH IT, AIDED BY
SEEMINGLY ISENTROPIC LIFT. BY LATE MORNING, FORECAST PWATS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.15", NEARING THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY DRAPED
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA, WILL DIP DOWN ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
TOMORROW, GIVING EVEN MORE LIFT TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MID-SOUTH AS WE MOVE FURTHER INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SOUTH OF THIS COLD FRONT, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE AND
MISSISSIPPI LINE, A DECENT SWATH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GIVE
LIFT TO A SMALL WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SEVERE CHANCES ARE SLIM TO NONE AS THIS AREA
WILL BE SOCKED IN ALL DAY AND MUCAPE VALUES WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 200 J/KG WITH LITTLE TO NO EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR. STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW AN INCH
TOMORROW.
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL EDGE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO
THE MID-SOUTH FOR SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
LAST LONG, HOWEVER, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS ZONAL
BY TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS USHER IN WARMER AIR. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S, AND REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN
BECOMES A BIT UNSETTLED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AS AN
OCCLUDED SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, WE'RE A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT
TO IRON OUT THE EXACT DETAILS ON THIS NEXT SYSTEM. STAY TUNED...
AEH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
NO IMPACTFUL AVIATION WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING,
AS A DRY AIR MASS BRINGS CONTINUED VFR AND LIGHT SW WINDS.
A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY. THE
LEADING EDGE OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT REACH
MEM, AND THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE
FROM -SHRA ALOFT DURING THE LATE MORNING. AS SUCH, LATE MORNING
VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES, THOUGH -SHRA WILL BE IN THE
AREA.
BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF MEM.
POST-FRONTAL LOW MVFR APPEARS LIKELY, AS PERSISTENT -SHRA OCCURS
OVER THE FRONTAL INVERSION. A TRANSITION TO IFR WILL LIKELY HOLD
OFF UNTIL 00Z, NEAR THE END OF THE 30 HOUR MEM TAF.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE TODAY WILL BE AROUND 35% MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WETTING
RAIN BACK TO THE MID-SOUTH TOMORROW, INCREASING MINIMUM RH VALUES
ABOVE 50%. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT. 20 FT
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...PWB
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