907
FXUS64 KMEG 150404
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1104 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
- DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF
LATE MAY OR EARLY JUNE, AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE MID-SOUTH'S WEATHER. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 90
DEGREES ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH.
- A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. THERE IS LOW TO MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUNNY,
COOL, AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURES AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER FLORIDA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRESENT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH LATE
EVENING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 80S. SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE MID-
LEVEL HEIGHTS WEAKENING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORT-TERM CAMS INDICATE UPSTREAM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. FAVORABLE FORCING
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING IF THE
ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN. LREF JOINT PROBABILITIES OF
1000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE AND BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS
INDICATE A MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS WHICH SUPPORT A HAIL AND WIND THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR FRIDAY WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90 DEGREES
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. THIS WARM PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
COME TO AN END THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID-SOUTH. NEITHER OF THESE
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO OVERCOME THE
MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCURRING THIS SPRING THUS
FAR. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEK, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WITH A LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS ISSUANCE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BEGIN GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS AROUND 15Z ALONG A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY DROP OUT AFTER 00Z,
HOWEVER, A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT JBR/MEM. MARGINAL LLWS AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AT MEM. THIS SAME TROUGH WILL ALSO
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO MEM EARLY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR A PROB30 AT THIS TIME.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS
MINRH REMAINS ABOVE 30 PERCENT. WETTING RAIN CHANCES EXIST ON
THURSDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SATURDAY, ACROSS A BROAD PORTION
OF THE MID-SOUTH. DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, MINRH
VALUES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE MIDSOUTH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AEH
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