941
FXUS64 KMEG 081715
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1115 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
- TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO MID
60S.
- DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
- RAIN AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL TOTALS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TODAY, PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT TO LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL VARY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
TN/MS BORDER WILL BE WARMEST WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID
60S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER
WHERE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S. AREAWIDE
WARMING WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE MID-SOUTH. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH TUESDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN LATE TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE MID-SOUTH. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY, ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. RECENT
GUIDANCE IS NOW PULLING THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL MS INSTEAD OF
STALLING ALONG THE TN/MS BORDER. AS A RESULT, THURSDAY IS NOW
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH SITS WELL
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS A BIT TRICKY DUE TO
LARGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD. ONE THING THAT BOTH THE
GEFS AND ENS AGREE ON IS THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE
MID-SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH A 20% CHANCE OF THUNDER. FORECAST
DIFFERENCES EMERGE ON SATURDAY IN REGARDS TO THE FORWARD
PROPAGATION OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. THE GEFS FAVORS A MORE
NORTHERLY, PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES SATURDAY MORNING,
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT, QPF IS RELATIVELY HIGH WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
FALLING. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ENS IS FAVORING A MORE SOUTHERLY
SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION PRODUCES LESS
OF AN AREAWIDE RAINFALL EVENT, INSTEAD DEPICTING AROUND
1.15 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING IN NORTH MS. THE NBM DOES SEEM TO BE
FAVORING THE GFS AS IT IS DEPICTING 2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION MANIFESTS, THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WET AND UNSETTLED.
ANS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION, THERE IS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE (>90%) OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AT ALL
SITES. SOUTH WINDS 6-9KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN TO LESS THAN
5KTS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS MINRH
VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 50%. IN ADDITION, WETTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JDS
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