679  
FXUS64 KMEG 010410  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1110 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 1028 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025  
 
- EXPECT A PLEASANT AND DRY LABOR DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE,  
HUMIDITY SHOULDN'T BE QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND  
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES.  
 
- A PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEK WILL BRING MUCH-NEEDED CHANCES FOR  
RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A  
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025  
 
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
SHIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY  
FEATURING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES AND SEASONABLY LOW  
HUMIDITY TO START OFF THE WEEK, BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AND DRY AS  
WE EXPERIENCED OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE  
WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT LATEST  
CONSENSUS IS THAT RAIN WILL BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT IN WEST TENNESSEE  
AND SHIFT WEST TUESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK MEAGER WITH THE  
HIGHEST TOTALS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AROUND TWO-THIRDS OF AN  
INCH) TAPERING OFF TO LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IN NORTHEAST  
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER  
AMOUNTS OVER WEST TENNESSEE EXIST AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET  
DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE  
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. NBM PROBABILITY OF  
ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION OR HIGHER RANGE FROM ABOUT 70%  
IN FAR NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE  
TENNESSEE RIVER TO LESS THAN 20% ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI  
RIVER THROUGH MIDWEEK.  
 
ANOTHER SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS  
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND  
THE FRONT WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY  
FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. THIS PATTERN WILL BE GREAT FOR OUTDOOR  
ACTIVITIES, BUT MAY WORSEN DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS  
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.  
 
OUR COOLEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN  
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 50S TO  
LOW 60S. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS MILD AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  
 
30/SIRMON  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025  
 
VFR. JUST A WIND FORECAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A  
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LIGHT VRB WIND TOMORROW  
NIGHT.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025  
 
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH'S AND SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES SHOULD CURB  
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY. SOME RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK,  
NUT ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT PROVIDE MUCH DROUGHT RELIEF. ANOTHER  
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IS ON ITS WAY MIDWEEK AND MAY REINTRODUCE  
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS STARTING FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW WIDESPREAD  
THE RAINFALL WE RECEIVE NEXT WEEK IS.  
 
 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS  
AVIATION...JDS  
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