546
FXUS64 KMEG 121119 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
519 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
- COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-70 PERCENT) OF RAIN SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
A CLEAR AND CHILLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS ONGOING, WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. THERE ARE LARGELY
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A
FEW DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50 ON MONDAY AND
THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY. SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN
CREEP INTO THE 60S WEST OF THE MS RIVER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DESCENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BRINGING
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE MID-SOUTH. POPS HAVE
CONTINUED TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS, WITH
POPS IN THE 40% TO 70% RANGE FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MAJORITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
MOVE OUT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, THUS ONLY RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE TYPICAL "WILL THE DRY AIR
MOVE IN BEFORE THE COLD AIR GETS HERE SCENARIO" COULD BE IN PLAY
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE
HAS PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT BEFORE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET, LEADING
TO A RAIN-ONLY FORECAST. HOWEVER, IF ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WERE TO LINGER, SOME FLURRIES COULD MIX IN AS THE PRECIPITATION
EXITS THE AREA. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT THIS WOULD
OCCUR. TYPICALLY SPEAKING, THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT WORK IN FAVOR
OF THOSE HOPING FOR SNOWFALL AND NBM PROBABILITIES KEEP ANY
DUSTING PROBABILITIES TO LESS THAN 20%. THE ONE OUTLIER TO THIS
SOLUTION IS THE GEFS, WHICH HAS THESE PROBABILITIES CLOSER TO
30 TO 40% ALONG THE TN RIVER. IN SUMMARY, WHILE WE CAN'T RULE OUT
A FEW FLURRIES NEAR THE TN RIVER AS THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT, NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AND ONCE AGAIN THE CHANCE FOR THIS APPEARS
TO BE VERY LOW.
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF THE 30S. BY
FRIDAY, WE MAY GET SOME BRIEF RESPITE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS SET TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN FORECAST OUTCOMES BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
SOME OVERNIGHT, WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
MINRH VALUES WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 40% THIS WEEK, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY WHEN LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. 20FT WINDS MAY APPROACH 10 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS NE AR AND
THE MO BOOTHEEL, SO SOME BORDERLINE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS SHOULD
BE NOTED ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. IF DRY
CONDITIONS WERE TO FALL LOWER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, A RFD COULD
BE NEEDED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...PWB
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