952
FXUS64 KMEG 100030
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
730 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 729 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
- THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH SEVERE STORM
CHANCES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
GOES EAST LOW LEVEL WATER VAPOR CHANNEL REVEALS A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH A DEEP CUTOFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE, THE LATEST ANALYSIS
PLACES A NW TO SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT FROM CORNING, AR SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MEMPHIS, TN, AND BACK INTO TUPELO, MS. THE LATEST GOES
EAST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT, MAINLY
OVER SE ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF N MISSISSIPPI. IN THAT AREA, THE
LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH
BOTH MODERATE INSTABILITY (1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE) AND MODERATE
SHEAR (0-6 KM SHEAR 35-40 KNOTS) IN PLACE. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTS MAINLY ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLS AND POTENTIAL BOWING
STRUCTURES. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES
ABOVE 7.5 C/KM BETWEEN 700 AND 500MB. IF CELLS CAN REMAIN SEMI-
DISCRETE, LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY, OTHERWISE
ORGANIZED COLD POOLS WILL BECOME THE MAIN MODE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
THE LATEST KNQA RADAR SCAN REVEALS SCATTERED WAA SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH A SINGLE NON-SEVERE STORM MOVING INTO EASTERN
ARKANSAS. TO THE WEST, MULTI-CELLULAR AND SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS
HAVE BEEN PREVALENT THIS MORNING FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE
LITTLE ROCK, AR METRO. STORM MOTION HAS BEEN NEARLY DUE EAST WITH
STORM SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. ONE REPORT OF NICKEL TO QUARTER
SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED THUS FAR. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF
AN ORGANIZING COLD POOL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LITTLE ROCK, AR
METRO, BUT STORMS HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY ELEVATED AND SUB-SEVERE
THUS FAR.
DOWNSTREAM AND OVER THE MID-SOUTH, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
TO DESTABILIZE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. THE CURRENT SPC
OUTLOOK COVERS THE THREAT WELL, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) LOCATED
ALONG THE TN/MS STATELINE AND TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A CIG1 FOR
LARGE HAIL 2+ INCHES, WHICH IS WELL SUPPORTED BY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MODERATE OVER THE
AREA AS MLCAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. LOOKING MORE CLOSELY AT THE SOUNDINGS,
STORMS COULD BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED, WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-40 THROUGH ABOUT 8PM THIS EVENING.
WE WILL SEE A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ABOUT
24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD IN WAKE OF THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE. MODERATE WAA WILL PERSIST ON TUESDAY AS A WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KANSAS CITY, MO DURING THE DAY. OUT TO
THE WEST, THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND OPEN INTO A POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH AS IT
MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS LATE TUESDAY. WEAK PERTURBATIONS, EMBEDDED
IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WILL ROTATE INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY,
A STRENGTHENING LLJ, AND MODERATE SHEAR IN PLACE, A COUPLE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT THESE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MOVE INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A SPLIT-FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BE PREVALENT OVER THE PLAINS WITH A POTENTIAL LEADING
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS AS HEAVY
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIALLY ONGOING CONVECTION OCCURS IN THE WARM
SECTOR. NONETHELESS, A HIGH SHEAR AND LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
SETUP WILL OCCUR. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL BE MAXIMIZED BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE REFS
GUIDANCE, AS IT PAINTS AN INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG THE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH UP TO
60 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR ON HAND. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS MEDI THAN
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY ENDING THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A
BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY LATE WEEK AS BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH AT
00Z. TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SW OF TUP, IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
02Z OR SO. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EAST OVER NORTHERN AR. SCATTERED SHRA
WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTH INTO NORTH MS THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. AT THIS TIME, TS POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS.
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW EVENINGS, MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD NORTH
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY MARGINAL LLWS AT
JBR AND MEM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 MPH WILL OCCUR EACH DAY THIS
WEEK. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL WILL INCREASE FUEL
MOISTURE AND MAINTAIN ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY, LIMITING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB
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