828
FXUS64 KMEG 250531
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1131 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
- NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY, LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT DROP TO BELOW-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS EACH DAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
MILD SEPTEMBER-LIKE TEMPERATURES RESIDE OVER THE MID-SOUTH LATE
THIS EVENING WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. RECORD-TYING
AND RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST EACH DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL
OCCUR LATE SUNDAY AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT TRAVERSES THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
WITH QPF VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEARLY 40 DEGREES COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT WARM SPELL.
FURTHERMORE, THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
DROP WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS EACH DAY.
BROAD TROUGHING WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A MVFR
STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN, BEGINNING AROUND 10Z ACROSS
THE AIRSPACE. LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AT TUP
WILL LEAD TO LOWERED VISIBILITIES AS FOG MOVES IN. FOG SHOULD
LIFT BY AROUND 16Z AS WINDS INCREASE. SOME GUIDANCE HAS US
SCATTERING OUT A BIT FASTER, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHER IN THE
MVFR CONDITIONS STICKING INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY MVFR STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
IN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN VERY LOW ALL WEEK AS HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THE 60% TO 80% RANGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AEH
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