318
FXUS64 KMEG 061221 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
621 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 613 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
- RECORD-CHALLENGING WARMTH WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS
WEEK. OUR WARMEST DAY WILL BE THURSDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON THURSDAY AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
IS IN PLACE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAVE STRENGTHENED TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO A 1003MB SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
MISSOURI. A 2001 SURFACE HIGH IS IN PLACE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE NATION, OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA, SOUTH CAROLINA
AND MUCH OF GEORGIA. WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING
A NORMAL DIURNAL TREND, BUT ALSO DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
EARLY TOMORROW. FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE WIND IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A
STEADY FLOW OF WARM, MOIST AIR STREAMING INTO THE MIDSOUTH. A WEAK
COLD, OR OCCLUDED FRONT WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
LATE TOMORROW. WEDNESDAY'S TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
ONLY BE 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RETURN
TO THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
THE PATTERN ALOFT DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH TUESDAY. GENERAL
ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER, A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE
MEXICAN WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE TO A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THAT RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE, ALONG WITH PERSISTENT WWA WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR BOOSTING OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO MIDDLE 70S.
THE ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL SWING ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN
ASSOCIATED 995-997MB SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND INTO EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS TRACK WOULD PLACE ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH IN
A LARGE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DUE TO MANY
FACTORS, BUT MOSTLY BECAUSE WE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, WE ARE
ONLY EXPECTING ABOUT A 15% CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS. THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE HIGH SHEAR AND LOW CAPE
WHICH IS THE TYPICAL SETUP FOR CONVECTION THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS CURRENTLY LOOK TO STAY MAINLY TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH THE HIGHER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER CONDITIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S SATURDAY AND IN THE 40S
SUNDAY.
JDS
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CIGS AT MEM/MKL/TUP
THROUGH MID-MORNING. KLZK/KNQA VAD WIND PROFILER SHOWED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2KFT BEGINNING WEAKEN AND VEER
WESTERLY AT 12Z. WEAKER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DAYTIME MIXING
SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE LOWER CLOUD
DECK.
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR TO ALL BUT TUP
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT SOUTH OF MEM THIS EVENING,
WITH PATCHY BR/FG IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY, PRIMARILY
AFFECTING TUP.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
50 PERCENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TO A MINIMUM. RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY LOOKS HIGH(100%).
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...PWB
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