258
FXUS64 KMEG 221121
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
521 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 458 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
-A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL START THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING 60 DEGREES BY MONDAY AND MILD WEATHER
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK.
-A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE MID-SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
A 1035 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN U.S. EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN IN THE TEENS
AND 20S ACROSS THE REGION. A CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HALT THE TEMP FALL AS IT
SPREADS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THIS DECK BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DIM THE SUN UNTIL AT
LEAST THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. TEMPS WILL START A WARMING TREND TODAY AS HIGHS REACH
INTO THE 30S AND 40S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SKIRT ALONG THE GULF COAST ON
SUNDAY BRINGING CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE VERY SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OF THE MID-SOUTH. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL HELP TEMPS INTO THE
40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND INCREASINGLY
MILD TEMPS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 60 BY MONDAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS HITTING 70 BY WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
LATEST MODEL RUNS DEPICT AN INCREASINGLY MOISTURE STARVED
SCENARIO AND LATEST QPF AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE MEAGER WITH LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH DEPICTED. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN SO HIGHS ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH INITIALIZING THE MIDLEVEL VFR
DECK OVER THE AIRSPACE. BY EARLY AFTERNOON, EXPECT THIS CLOUD DECK
TO BEGIN CLEARING WITH SKC CONDITIONS RETURNING IN THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANS
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...ANS
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