523
FXUS64 KMEG 130501
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1101 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
- COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (60-80 PERCENT) OF RAIN SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
ANOTHER COOL AND CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH, UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES SPANNING THE 30S
TO LOW 40S. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. AFTER ANOTHER COOL START
TUESDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY SURGE ABOVE-NORMAL,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SPANNING TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST AR COULD EVEN APPROACH THE MID 60S.
A NOTABLE PATTERN SHIFT WILL COME ON WEDNESDAY AS A CUT OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MERGES WITH A
DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, PUSHING ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TIMING HAS PUSHED UP A BIT,
WITH THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE HAVING PRECIPITATION MOVE OUT BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH THE EARLIER SHIFT, THIS WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION AS RAIN-ONLY AS COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
BY THURSDAY MORNING.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH A
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
LEAVE THE 30S, WITH ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES LIKELY TO SEE THE 40 DEGREE MARK. INTO FRIDAY, WE
WILL HAVE A VERY BRIEF RESPITE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR
FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AIDED BY A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO THE NORTH. LREF GUIDANCE HAS AROUND A 40 TO 50%
CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH, WITH NBM GUIDANCE CLOSER
TO 60 TO 80%, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-40. THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE FORECAST WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
TRAJECTORY OF ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES OFF OF THE
PLAINS. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS A DRY AND
CHILLY SOLUTION, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO 20S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. WHILE THE NBM HAS
CONTINUED TO RUN WITH ESSENTIALLY NO POPS ACROSS THE AREA, SOME
ENSEMBLES ARE PICKING UP ON SOME INCREASED POPS CLOSE TO THE TN
RIVER AT POINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING
AFTER 16Z. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 18 TO 22 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. WIND SPEEDS WILL LINGER
AROUND 8 TO 9 KTS HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE NOTED FOR TUESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. MINRH VALUES WILL
FALL BELOW 35% FOR SOME LOCATIONS AND COULD DIP BELOW 30%. 20FT
WINDS WILL BE ABOVE 10 MPH DURING THIS TIME, WHICH COULD REACH
RFD CRITERIA. ELSEWHERE, WHILE WINDS WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED, MINRH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 35%. MINRH VALUES WILL RISE
ABOVE 40% ON WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS PASS THROUGH THE AREA, BEFORE
FALLING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CMA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page