643
FXUS64 KMEG 101143
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
543 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
- DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT.
- A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN FRIDAY, AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
SPRING-LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE
MEDIUM RANGE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO 40S ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE MID-SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES BY MORNING.
THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE (>80%) OF WIND GUSTS GREATER
THAN 25 MPH ALONG THE MS RIVER AND ACROSS THE DELTA REGION.
TEMPERATURES OVERPERFORMED TODAY, SO WE USED A BLEND OF THE
NBM90 AND THE NBM FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE LOWER 70S.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE FEEDING IN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
TO PROVIDE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN A TENTH AND A
HALF INCH. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD (AROUND 60%) OF THE HALF INCH
AMOUNTS OCCURRING ALONG THE TN/MS STATE LINE, EAST OF MEMPHIS.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN TO MORE
NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN
THE 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SPORADIC THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
WARM FRONT LINGERS SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE MID-SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT AND
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A VERY WET
PERIOD. HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS (NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE) ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. QPF AMOUNTS IN THE MAIN ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS HAVE ALL BEEN ON THE UPTICK AND THE NBM'S QPF AMOUNTS OF
2-3 INCHES LOOKS REASONABLE.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND'S
SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER, LATEST HREF GUIDANCE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS
TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ONSET OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EARLIER FOR MEM BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THIS PERIOD AS MINRH STAYS
MAINLY ABOVE 40 PERCENT. WETTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY
NIGHT, LASTING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CJC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page