138  
FXUS64 KMEG 122117  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
317 PM CST MON NOV 12 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
AREAS OF DRIZZLE...PATCHY FOG AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO  
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS HOUR. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW  
40S TO THE MID 50S WITH NORTH WINDS OF GENERALLY 10 TO 20MPH.  
 
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...OVERRUNNING  
PRECIPITATION FROM A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST  
WILL COME TO AN END LATE TONIGHT IN THE WEST AND SHORTLY AFTER  
SUNRISE TUESDAY FOR THE EAST. SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY  
NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30'S...WITH A FEW  
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REACHING FREEZING. FOR  
THAT REASON STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT PATCHY FREEZING  
DRIZZLE OR A FEW STRAY SNOW FLURRIES MAY BE SEEN BEFORE  
PRECIPITATION EXITS EAST. THIS THREAT WOULD MAINLY BE SEEN IN THE  
MIDNIGHT TO 3AM TIME FRAME. CLEARING SKIES WITH DRIER LOW-LEVEL  
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS  
RUNNING NEAR 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WIDESPREAD FREEZING  
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT.  
 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE PERIOD OF GREATEST IMPACT FOR THE  
MIDSOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. MODELS BECOMING BETTER ALIGNED  
WITH THE TRACK OF A NEWLY FORM 500MB LOW IN NORTH TEXAS THIS  
PERIOD. TAKING IT GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER/LOWER  
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. ON THE SURFACE AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL  
EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF INTO ALABAMA AND  
EVENTUALLY BACK TOWARDS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...ACTING AS AN AVENUE  
FOR BOTH MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO RIDE ALONG. AS THE UPPER LOW  
DEEPENS IN ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LEADING EDGE OF LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH COUNTIES  
WHERE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES SEEN OFF BUFKIT WILL BE NEARLY BE  
SUBFREEZING. THUS A WINTRY MIX SHOULD TRANSPIRE...ESPECIALLY  
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE LIFTING MOISTURE WILL REACH THE SNOW  
DENDRITIC ZONE AROUND -15C. THIS APPEARS TO TAKE PLACE RIGHT OVER  
THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AROUND MIDNIGHT. SO CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY  
BUILDING THAT ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND POTENTIALLY SOME MINOR ICE  
ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE SEEN OVER NORTHWEST  
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH BEFORE NOON THURSDAY. PLAN ON CHANGING  
CONFIDENCE LEVELS IN BOTH THE AFTERNOON HWO AND THE CURRENT SPS.  
TIMING DIFFERENCES OF A FEW HOURS ARE STILL OBSERVED BETWEEN  
MODELS WITH THE GFS REMAINING THE FASTEST. FOR NOW HAVE TAKEN A  
BLEND ON TIMING. TO NOTE THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER IS NOW  
PLACING SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND ADJACENT AREAS IN THE FAVORED  
TROWAL/DEFORMATION ZONE FOR ACCUMULATION SNOW. WORKING AGAINST THE  
SNOWFALL WILL BE TEMPERATURES IN THE 31-33F RANGE AND GROUND  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. SO TRICKY FORECAST AS TO HOW HARD  
THE SNOW WILL FALL AND HOW MUCH WILL BE ABLE TO STICK. FOR NOW 1  
TO UP TO 3 INCHES SEEMS PLAUSIBLE PROMPTING A FUTURE WINTER  
WEATHER ADVISORY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA OR CLOSE TO THE  
MEMPHIS METRO...MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE NEVER REALLY GETS  
ESTABLISHED SO PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED WITH A FEW  
SNOW FLURRIES MAY OCCUR. OR NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL AS THE DRY  
SLOT CLIPS THAT AREA. MOISTURE WILL EXIT FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH  
ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE HELPING TO MELT ANY  
EARLIER SNOWFALL.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY A DRY PERIOD WITH MILDER  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY BRING SOME  
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE ON SUNDAY.  
 
JAB  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z TAFS  
 
INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN HAD MOSTLY LIFTED THROUGH AT 1730Z, AWAITING  
AWAITING SECOND BATCH OF LIFT AND SHOWERS THIS EVENING. SOME  
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIM, BUT THIS  
SHOULD WINDOW SHOULD CLOSE WITH THE SETTING SUN AND ARRIVAL OF  
WEAKER SECOND WAVE OF LIFT TOWARD 23Z.  
 
-FZDZ NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT JBR/MEM/MKL AFTER 10Z, BUT  
CHANCES LIKELY BELOW 20 PERCENT GIVEN INFLUX OF DRY AIR. THIS DRY  
AIR SHOULD ALSO BRING CEILINGS TO MVFR AT ALL BUT PERHAPS TUP  
MIDMORNING TUESDAY.  
 
PWB  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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