833
FXUS64 KMEG 211718
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1218 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2021
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 619 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021/
A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN EASTERN ARKANSAS. WE EXPECT A
LITTLE BIT MORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WEST
TENNESSEE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SUNNY AND PLEASANT. TEMPERATURE WILL
REMAIN IN THE 70S. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER AS TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND THOSE RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. BY MONDAY,
A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A STRONGER
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK. MODELS STILL ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT THIS IS A
STRONGER SIGNAL THAT COULD GIVE US A SHOT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
18Z TAF
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH, BUT IS
CURRENTLY APPROACHING TUP. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG HE
FRONT. WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT TUP FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SKIES HAVE ALREADY CLEARED AT JBR AND MEM AND
SHOULD CLEAR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT MKL. CLEARING SHOULD
TAKE PLACE AT TUP AROUND SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BE NW3-5KT
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
30
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
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