280
FXUS64 KMEG 240455
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1155 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH A
SLIGHT RISK (2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
MEMPHIS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN, BUT LARGE
HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY, WITH AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER, THE MIDSOUTH IS
ON THE THRESHOLD OF A STORMY AND UNSETTLED PATTERN. THE
INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A PRONOUNCED SEVERE
THREAT ON MONDAY.
LATE THURSDAY EVENING, GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGER
UPPER LOW COMPLEX OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A FAST ZONAL
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET EXTENDED AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
DOWNSTREAM FLOW WAS DIFFLUENT OVER THE MISSOURI AND MIDDLE-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS, AIDING LINEAR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
THAT EXTEND FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, STORMS WILL CONTINUE EAST
INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND OZARKS, IN TANDEM WITH
MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. MARGINAL CAPE WILL LIMIT STORM INTENSITY
OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY, WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 15F
COOLER THAN OVER AR AND SOUTHERN MO. STORMS SHOULD TAKE A
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PATH THROUGH CENTRAL AR TOWARD SUNRISE, GENERALLY
FOLLOWING THE ORIENTATION OF THE MIDLEVEL THICKNESS GRADIENT. THE
CAMS, AND THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR, DEPICT THESE STORMS OVER AR
WILL BE GENERALLY BALANCED WITH RESPECT TO SHEAR AND OUTFLOW.
FROM MEMPHIS TO THE NORTH AND EAST, STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT ENCOUNTERING WEAKER CAPE, WEAKER DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AND PRESENTING A LOWER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. LATER IN THE
DAY FRIDAY, CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REINVIGORATE ALONG THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTH MS. 00Z HRRR DEPICTS SURFACE-BASED CAPE
OVER NORTH MS RUNNING FROM 600-800 J/KG, THOUGH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
IS LESS THAN 30KT OVER NORTHEAST MS. WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT, AS THE REMNANT BOUNDARY STALLS OVER CENTRAL
MS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE MIDLEVEL FLOW.
WEAK EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER SOUTHEAST-
PROPAGATING MCS WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE OZARKS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE BULK OF
STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AR, NEAR THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E
RIDGE. SUNDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO SATURDAY, WITH
DAYTIME HEATING PROVIDING INSTABILITY. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST, AS INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ARRIVES FROM THE WEST, PORTENDING A BUSY DAY AHEAD
ON MONDAY.
THE NEWLY-ARRIVED 00Z GFS HAS NOT DEVIATED FROM EARLIER SOLUTIONS
THAT DEPICT AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE PARAMETER SPACE. A NEUTRAL
TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY-TILTED HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL LIFT
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
CLOSER TO THE MIDSOUTH, THE GFS DEPICTS A MORE COMPACT BUT
IMPACTFUL SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH PHASING WITH THE
NORTHERN BRANCH COUNTERPART. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
COULD INCREASE THE CHANCES OF A SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE THAT BACKS
SURFACE INFLOW, AS WELL AS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER REAR INFLOW WINDS INTO THE STORMS IN MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE OTHERWISE IMPRESSIVE, WITH
MLCAPE NEAR 3500 J/KG LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.3 C. GFS-DERIVED SUPERCELL COMPOSITE OF 8 TO
16 SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CELLS, INCREASING THE CONCERN
FOR LARGE HAIL. CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND 0-3KM SRH OF
300 M2/S2 WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES. WHILE THIS IS ONE
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL, THE 00Z GFS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z LREF
CONSENSUS FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE MACHINE LEARNING GEFS
CONVECTIVE ANALOG FROM COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY DEPICTS A
HATCHED 48% SEVERE PROBABILITY CENTERED OVER WEST TENNESSEE ON
MONDAY. WHILE THIS IS ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, THE BIG PICTURE
IS COMING INTO FOCUS. THE DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR ONCE
WE'RE IN THE 48 TO 60 HOUR CAM WINDOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
OTHER THAN SOME MILD SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS AROUND FL015, THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE QUITE BENIGN. THINGS START TO PICK
UP MID FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHRAS ARE
EXPECTED TO START UP AROUND 15Z WITH EMBEDDED TSRA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AIRSPACE. GIVEN THE
STRONGER INTENSITIES ON THE LEADING EDGE, MEM AND JBR ARE MOST
LIKELY TO BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY TSRA. GUIDANCE HAS COME IN MORE
PESSIMISTIC ON THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS OVERNIGHT TOMORROW;
CEILINGS WILL MOST LIKELY START TO TANK AFTER 03Z SATURDAY TO
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR AFTER 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
WETTING RAINFALL WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED
BY CONTINUED CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY, WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH HUMIDITY AND CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...CAD
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