955
FXUS64 KMEG 220126
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
826 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 806 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. DAILY HEAT
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AS HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEED 105
DEGREES.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN EXPAND
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES AS
OF 8 PM CDT ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO APPROACHING 90
DEGREES. MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED THUS FAR.
HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE FALLEN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH.
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
IN ADDITION, ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. AS A RESULT, THE HEAT
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. AS AS A
RESULT, OUR HEAT INDICES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 102/103 DEGREES. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING THIS AFTERNOON
ON OUR FIRST DAY OF SUMMER. HEAT INDICES SHOULD TOP OUT GENERALLY
BETWEEN 105 AND 107 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT PROVIDE
MUCH RELIEF. EXPECT SUNRISE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
THIS OPPRESSIVE HEAT IS THE RESULT OF A 594DM RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO
DEVELOP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE, BUT A STRONG CAP
AT 12,000 FEET SHOULD PROHIBIT MUCH VERTICAL GROWTH. THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT, BECOMING CENTERED OVER WEST
VIRGINIA TOMORROW. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT AND ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 105.
WE WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY STAGNATE PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE CAROLINAS,
RESULTING IN WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW, FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT NEXT WEEK, BUT MOST OF US WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY. ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AS HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 103 TO 105 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
VFR FORECAST WITH THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.
A FEW VFR CLOUDS CURRENTLY RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WHERE RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE.
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE WARRANTS ONLY A PROB30 AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAT. MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD
BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON, LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ001>003-007-008-
010>012-020.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ004>006-009-013>017-
021>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>091.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ092.
UPDATE...CJC
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JAB
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