478
FXUS64 KMEG 241810
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1210 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 60S STARTING
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES (70% CHANCE OR GREATER) WILL RETURN THURSDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES ARE VERY LOW (LESS THAN 5%).
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ALONGSIDE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/MIDWEST. SINCE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED SOUTH OF
THE REGION, SOUTHERLIES HAVE RETURNED AND ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW
THE REGION TO WARM BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S. PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT
THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA
AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. NBM MEAN SUSTAINED
WINDS DO REACH BETWEEN 23 - 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH HAS
PROMPTED A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 9 P.M. CST TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
ANYWHERE BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
OUR ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR SUSTAINED WINDS (25 MPH) THEREAFTER,
BUT A SIGNIFICANT MAJORITY OF HREF MEMBERS PRODUCE AND EXPAND
WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH PAST 9 P.M., WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE
EXPANSION AND EXTENSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, NBM WIND GUSTS FOLLOW A DIFFERENT PATTERN, REMAINING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALREADY WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY AND HAVE
VERIFIED QUITE WELL SO FAR. THEREFORE, THE DECISION WAS MADE TO
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IN THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE, BUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, TRENDS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED GOING INTO THIS EVENING.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY WAA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. ALOFT, THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL HAVE COMPLETELY BROKEN DOWN AND RETROGRADED WESTWARD WITH
LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A FEW EMBEDDED
JET STREAKS OR SHORTWAVES WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE TROUGH. A
MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER FLOW WILL
EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING, TRACKING TOWARDS THE
MID-SOUTH/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
WILL FOLLOW THE FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WITHIN THE JET STREAK
ALOFT AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY WITH AN
ATTENDING COLD FRONT. WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION
HAVING ALREADY HAPPENED, PWATS OF AROUND AN INCH WILL BE IN
PLACE, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY.
POPS INCREASE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING UP TO 60% - 70%
ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI, INCREASING
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MOST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (HRRR/RAP/NAM) AS OF THIS MORNING DOES
DEVELOP A REGION OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE, PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS, AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SO, AS THE FRONT SWINGS SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA, SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED. MAXIMUM
MUCAPE VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 500 - 1000 J/KG DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MOST PROFILES REMAINING ELEVATED.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES DO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD,
RANGING FROM 20 KNOTS UP TO 50 KNOTS. THE AVERAGE IS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 30 KNOTS - 40 KNOTS, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT CONSISTENT
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. THEREFORE, A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE
OF, AT MOST, MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND COULD OCCUR THURSDAY.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL SOUTH AFTER CLEARING THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO BRING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR AND HIGHS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S
FRIDAY. FURTHER UPPER HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO WARM THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S THAT ARE FORECAST TO EXTEND THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLIES WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE BACK
IN THE MEANTIME, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR THE NBM TO INCREASE POPS
(25% - 40%) MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG A BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION OF ANY SURFACE FEATURES THIS FAR INTO THE FORECAST AND
CHANGES TO POPS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT, AND
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HREF PROBABILITIES INCREASE TO AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR CEILINGS
BELOW 1KFT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WASN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR CEILINGS IN
THE 18Z TAF SET. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH LLWS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AT ALL SITES AS 2 KFT WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
50 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. EXPECT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20-30% RANGE TODAY WITH ELEVATED 20 FT WINDS
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH RH ABOVE
40 PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
WETTING RAINS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-026>028.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CJC
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