422  
FXUS64 KMEG 182312  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
612 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 600 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
 
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE  
BETWEEN 105 AND 109 THIS AFTERNOON. VERY WARM AND HUMID  
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
- TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE LOCALIZED RELIEF FROM  
THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT.  
 
- THE HEAT WILL RETURN AND INTENSIFY NEXT WORKWEEK, WITH DANGEROUS  
HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 110 EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH  
BY WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
 
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS APPARENT AT THIS HOUR WITH CURRENT  
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE  
DIGITS. OPPRESSIVE HEAT WITH HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105F WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. AS A RESULT A HEAT  
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH UNTIL 9PM  
TODAY. PLEASE BE SURE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY BY LIMITING OUTDOOR  
ACTIVITY AND STAYING HYDRATED. AS FAR AS HEAT HEADLINES GO HEADING  
INTO THE WEEKEND, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN  
COMBINATION WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL PROVIDE BRIEF  
LOCALIZED RELIEF FROM OPPRESSIVE HEAT. THOUGH AREAS WEST OF THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL SEE HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105F  
TOMORROW. AS SUCH A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES  
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  
 
A STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI ON  
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY, BORDERING THE TENNESSEE AND  
KENTUCKY STATELINE. IN CONJUNCTION, A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS STATIONED  
OVER THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. AS WE HEAD FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS, THIS SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID-SOUTH  
AND GIVE LIFT TO SHOWER AND MOSTLY SINGLE CELLULAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WORKING WITH A DECENT INSTABILITY  
FIELD WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINTING AT UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG OF  
SBCAPE AND PWATS UP TO 2.3", NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS  
TIME OF YEAR. SOME LIMITING FACTORS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE  
EFFECTIVE SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KTS AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT  
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. MUCH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WE ARE LOOKING AT A  
MICROBURST ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD CAUSE NUISANCE FLOODING AND A  
FEW SUB-SEVERE TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF  
I-40. SEVERE CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF BY THE LATE EVENING AS  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES  
ALSO EXIST OVER AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 AS GULF MOISTURE IS PRESENT  
THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED IN THESE  
AREAS.  
 
AS WE EDGE INTO THE WEEKEND, WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL  
CONTINUE AS GULF AIR AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DOMINATE THE  
WEATHER PATTERN. BE SURE TO KEEP THOSE UMBRELLAS HANDY THIS WEEKEND,  
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE GULF  
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE APPARENT. NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO  
PREVIOUSLY SATURATED SOILS WILL REALLY BE THE ONLY CONCERN THIS  
WEEKEND, THOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE NOTHING TO  
WRITE HOME AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN AN  
INCH.  
 
BY THE START OF NEXT WORKWEEK, A 594DAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE  
REGION AND BRING OPPRESSIVE HEAT BACK INTO THE FORECAST. HEAT  
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE MID-  
SOUTH BEGINNING MONDAY AS HEAT INDICES SOAR BACK INTO THE TRIPLE  
DIGITS. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE  
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION, RAISING  
TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER WITH SOME AREAS EVEN REACHING INTO THE  
TRIPLE DIGITS BY WEDNESDAY. SOMETHING TO NOTE, AS THE RIDGE  
BUILDS, DRY AIR WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,  
DECREASING DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY. THOUGH, WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE  
MID 70S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S, THE HEAT WILL BE  
OPPRESSIVE. SADLY, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE HERE TO STAY  
AS THE LATEST CPC 8-10 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS US ABOVE NORMAL TO  
ROUND OUT THE MONTH OF JULY.  
 
AEH  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
 
TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW. VFR  
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS  
AROUND 5KT DURING NIGHTTIME HOURS, 5-10KT DURING THE DAY. HIGHEST  
CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW IS AT TUP, LOWEST AT JBR.  
AS SUCH, WILL CARRY PROB30'S AT MKL AND MEM, AND TEMPO AT TUP.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
 
FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL REMAIN AT A MINIMUM FOR THE FORESEEABLE  
FUTURE AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 50%. HOT  
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN  
DAYS OR SO. WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
WEEKEND AS GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.  
 
 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-  
035-036-048-049-058.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ009-018-  
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.  
 
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ113-115.  
 
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ001-007-008-  
010>012-020.  
 
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ001>003-019-020-  
048>051-088-089.  
 
 
 
 
 
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH  
AVIATION...JDS  
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