016
FXUS64 KMEG 211832
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1232 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 25%) FOR RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
- BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS, WITH A WARMUP STARTING MIDWEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES (30% OR MORE) WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND GOES WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW
A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATE
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE PREVAILING ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH 11 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH OF I-40, AND 50S TO LOWER
60S SOUTH.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MID-
SOUTH INTO TONIGHT AND SETTLE IN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORT-TERM CAMS INDICATE A LOW CHANCE (<
25 %) FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE,
PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER AIR EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, WITH MUCH
COLDER AIR EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO 20S AND HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 40 DEGREES ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE REGION, LEADING TO
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 60S. RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED AND POOR, LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BKN/OVC MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
(~30% CHANCE) AT TUP THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS WILL WEAKEN TO
BELOW 15 KNOTS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLIES
AROUND 10 KNOTS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE, A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIND GUSTS BACK UP TO 20 KNOTS AND ABOVE,
WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
DRY AND COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURNING TO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE
EACH DAY. HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD
FRONT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...JAB
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