912
FXUS64 KMEG 090445
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1145 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1144 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 70S THROUGH FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE MID 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
THAN WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE FALL SEASON. RELATIVELY STRONG CAA
WILL HELP IT COOL OFF PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AREAS ALONG THE TN/KY STATE LINE
WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S THURSDAY MORNING. THE COOL TREND
CONTINUES INTO THE DAYTIME; MOST AREAS WILL BARELY CLIMB OUT OF THE
70S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MID FALL COOLDOWN WILL UNFORTUNATELY BE
PRETTY SHORT LIVED.
BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OUT WEST BEGINS TO AMPLIFY VERY
QUICKLY TO A STOUT RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WE'LL
BE IN NO-MAN'S-LAND WITH RESPECT TO 500 MB CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT THAT RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SOAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S BY MONDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. LREF 90TH
PERCENTILE (UPPER ECHELON OF GUIDANCE) EVEN HAS A FEW PIXELS OF 90
DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN THE MS DELTA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT WITH VERY DRY AIR FILTERING IN ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS,
HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT AT BAY. THIS ALSO KEEPS POPS BELOW 15% THROUGH
THE ENTIRE 7-DAY PERIOD.
CPC'S LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK KEEPS A HIGH CHANCE (70-80%) OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AS IT LOOKS LIKE THIS RIDGE ISN'T GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON.
GUIDANCE IS ALSO LEANING BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS SAME
TIME PERIOD. DROUGHT HAS BEEN CURBED A LITTLE WITH THE MOST RECENT
RAIN WE'VE HAD, BUT WITH THIS DRY FORECAST IT MAY START TO CREEP
BACK INTO THE SEVERE DROUGHT TERRITORY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE
WINDS BETWEEN 4-6 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 8-11 KTS ON THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
FIRE DANGER LOOKS MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH AFTERNOON RHS IN THE 30-40% RANGE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE TREND
AFTER THURSDAY'S COOLDOWN.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...CJC
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