914
FXUS64 KMEG 051754
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1154 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING EACH MORNING
INTO SUNDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
LEADING TO MELTING OF RESIDUAL ICE, SLEET, AND SNOW.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES,
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. A 1032 MB
SURFACE HIGH IS KEEPING THE MID-SOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE LATE
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
MIDDLE 30S AFTER A VERY COLD START WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS TONIGHT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ON THE
BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
MID-SOUTH WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTH. THIS PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. OUR CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A GRADUAL
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.
LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, WITH SPRING-LIKE HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70 DEGREES BY NEXT TUESDAY. A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL EVOLVE
INTO A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM OPEN WAVE TROUGH AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW
CONFIDENCE (20-30% CHANCE FOR 0.1 INCHES) OF RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE SOUTH / SOUTHWEST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST. NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS THIS PERIOD.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN AT A MINIMUM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 40-
60%. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY. THERE IS NO FORECAST
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...ANS
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