833  
FXUS64 KMEG 211718  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1218 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 619 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021/  
 
A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY A  
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN EASTERN ARKANSAS. WE EXPECT A  
LITTLE BIT MORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WEST  
TENNESSEE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON  
AND THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SUNNY AND PLEASANT. TEMPERATURE WILL  
REMAIN IN THE 70S. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER AS TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE  
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.  
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND THOSE RAIN CHANCES  
SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. BY MONDAY,  
A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A STRONGER  
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK. MODELS STILL ARE  
STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT THIS IS A  
STRONGER SIGNAL THAT COULD GIVE US A SHOT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL  
DAYS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER  
THAN NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
18Z TAF  
 
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH, BUT IS  
CURRENTLY APPROACHING TUP. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG HE  
FRONT. WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT TUP FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS  
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SKIES HAVE ALREADY CLEARED AT JBR AND MEM AND  
SHOULD CLEAR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT MKL. CLEARING SHOULD  
TAKE PLACE AT TUP AROUND SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BE NW3-5KT  
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  
 
30  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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