170  
FXUS64 KMEG 142258  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
558 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 353 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2020/  
 
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...  
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH BY TOMORROW. I'M NOT  
SURE HOW HOT A HOOCHIE COOCHIE IS, BUT WE'RE FIXIN' TO FIND OUT  
WHAT ALAN JACKSON WAS TALKING ABOUT. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD  
OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE  
SOUTHERN ROCKIES GRADUALLY EXPANDS TO THE EAST. THE WEAK, CUT-  
OFF LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND SLOWLY  
MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD ON THE  
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN  
PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM.  
 
ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET  
AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM/DRY  
EVENING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY IN THE UPPER  
60S THIS AFTERNOON BUT THAT WILL CHANGE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK  
ACROSS THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO  
THE REGION. THIS WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF WARM  
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE. ISOLATED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
NORTHEAST AR, THE BOOTHEEL, AND NORTHWEST TN BUT ANYTHING THAT  
DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE  
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER  
INCREASES TO NEAR 2.1 INCHES. WE DON'T ANTICIPATE A LOT OF  
COVERAGE OWING TO A BIT OF A CAP, BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE  
WELCOME GIVEN FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT  
INDICES NEAR 105F.  
 
MOST OF THE CONVECTION TOMORROW WILL END AROUND SUNSET BUT THERE  
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN  
PORTION OF THE CWA (CLOSER TO THE KY/MO BORDERS) AS A WEAK COLD  
FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, BUT OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTION COULD MOVE  
INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS AND SPAWN ADDITIONAL CELLS. THURSDAY  
WILL BE MUCH LIKE TOMORROW WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AREA  
WIDE. THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED ACROSS MOST OR  
ALL OF THE CWA. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL  
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS IN  
THE BALLPARK OF 2 INCHES WITH A GENERALLY UNCAPPED THERMAL  
PROFILE.  
 
MJ  
 
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...  
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE ZONE OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYING OVER  
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. PATTERN DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH SO  
EXPECT DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MID-SOUTH  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND  
STORMS WILL DIE DOWN WHEN THE SUN SETS. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE A  
LITTLE MORE HEAVY HANDED WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SO STUCK  
WITH THE NAM AND EURO MODELS. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL  
REMAIN INTO THE LOW 90'S AND HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO, IF NOT  
EXCEEDING 100F DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOME AREAS FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY WITH HEAT INDICES AT OR  
HIGHER THAN 105F. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WARM  
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70'S.  
 
SMW  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAFS  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL  
BECOME S WINDS BETWEEN 6-10 KTS. A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE AT JBR ON  
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
HOWEVER COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF SET.  
 
CJC  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-  
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LEE-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-  
ST. FRANCIS.  
 
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-  
PEMISCOT.  
 
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-  
LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-  
YALOBUSHA.  
 
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR DYER-FAYETTE-  
HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.  
 

 
 

 
 
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