419  
FXUS64 KMEG 242339  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
639 PM CDT WED APR 24 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 343 PM CDT WED APR 24 2019/  
 
MIDAFTERNOON GOES EAST WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOWED A  
SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TX. LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAIN WAS OCCURRING UNDER STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER EAST  
CENTRAL TX, WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING NEAR A  
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-44 IN MO.  
 
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE  
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW, TRACKING IT ACROSS TX TONIGHT, INTO  
CENTRAL AR TOWARD MIDDAY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE NEUTRAL TO  
SLIGHT POSITIVELY-TILTED, WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING NEAR THE  
500MB HEIGHT MINIMUM, AND OCCLUDED FRONTAL WAVE NEAR THE LEADING  
EDGE OF A MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT OVER EAST CENTRAL MS. MAIN AREA FOR  
CONCERN FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF  
THIS LOW LEVEL FRONTAL OCCLUSION, AND MAINLY OVER SOUTH MS.  
 
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW  
INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING, ACROSS CENTRAL MS. ONCE THIS  
SHORTWAVE PASSES, THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE MO  
BOOT HEEL BECOME CONSOLIDATED INTO A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROF  
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE  
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF PATTERN BY THIS TIME WILL ALLOW SUNNY AND  
FAIR CONDITIONS TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY.  
 
THE PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MESSY BY LATE SATURDAY, IN THE  
TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL. A WEAK FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY IS LIKELY TO  
BECOME STATIONARY DURING THE TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, BUT  
NOT BEFORE PASSING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY EVENING. WHERE  
THIS BOUNDARY ENDS UP ON SUNDAY IS A BIT UNCLEAR. MODELS DIFFER  
ON THE TIMING OF WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW.  
THESE WAVES WILL AFFECT THE POSITION OF THE WEAK STALLED SURFACE  
FRONT AND WILL MODULATE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. AT  
THIS TIME, THESE SHORTWAVE AT LEAST APPEAR WEAK AND DO APPEAR TO  
HOLD ANY HEAVY RAIN OR SEVERE THREAT FOR THE MIDSOUTH.  
 
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY, WITH UPPER RIDGING  
ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT  
FALLS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES  
WILL EJECT FROM THE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE  
STORM CORRIDOR UNTIL THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS BY WEDNESDAY. THE MID  
TO LATE PERIODS OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR TO HOLD THE NEXT APPRECIABLE  
CHANCE OF RAIN ONCE TOMORROW'S SYSTEM EXITS.  
 
PWB  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF SET  
 
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHEAST ARKANSAS FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS  
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SEVERAL CAM MODELS SHOW A MORE POTENT LINE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA AROUND 14Z  
CONTINUING EASTWARD TO KMKL AND KTUP BY 15-16Z. CIGS AND VSBYS  
WILL LOWER WITH THE LINE. EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 19Z AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. CIGS  
MAY REMAIN MVFR AT KJBR AS WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS OCCUR BEHIND THE  
SFC LOW. SOME OF THESE LOW CIGS MAY SPREAD INTO MEMPHIS AFTER  
00-01Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING, BUT  
WILL TURN AROUND TO SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS BY SUNRISE. SPEEDS WILL  
INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KTS.  
 
KRM  
 

 
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TN Page
The Nexlab MS Page
The Nexlab AR Page Main Text Page