683
FXUS64 KMEG 201135
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
535 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2025
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A HIGH CHANCE
(GREATER THAN 70%) OF WINDS OVER 20 MPH.
- SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) WILL PERSIST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS LIKELY EXCEEDING 70
DEGREES, ARE ANTICIPATED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
THE LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE MID-SOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE,
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ENCAPSULATES THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. A COUPLE OF SURFACE LOWS ARE
ANALYZED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH DAKOTA RESPECTIVELY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN QUICKLY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
A 1000MB LOW PIVOTS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH ARE IN THE 60-90% RANGE MAINLY ACROSS
NE ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE. PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH ARE IN
THE 30-50% RANGE, BUT STILL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS, STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THE MAJORITY OF SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO GENERATE SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40.
QPF TOTALS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW OR LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK
AIRMASS CHANGE.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE STRONG POLEWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. A COUPLE OF WEAK
PERTURBATIONS WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SPAWN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. POPS
HAVE INCREASED TO THE 40-60% RANGE ALTHOUGH RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THE MAIN FOCUS SHIFTS TO SIGNIFICANT RECORD WARMTH BUILDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT, NEAR-RECORD WARMTH
ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES
PINGING 30 YEAR RETURN INTERVALS TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY HIGH THAT A WHITE CHRISTMAS WILL NOT OCCUR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
VFR WILL CONTINUE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO STEADILY INCREASE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THIS MORNING THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. LLWS
IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE LOW LEVEL JET WINDS THROUGH
THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CALM AFTER SUNSET. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TO AROUND 30% AFTER 06Z SUNDAY AT MEM/TUP WITH
MVFR CIGS LIKELY REGARDLESS OF ANY RAIN. MKL/JBR ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AND DAILY RAIN
CHANCES WILL PERSIST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEAR
FUTURE. NEAR-RECORD WARMTH IS ANTICIPATED ALL NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...JAB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page