519
FXUS64 KMEG 021632
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1132 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
- COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S.
- MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS CREEPING
INTO THE LOW 80S.
- WETTER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE GULF COAST WITH BELOW-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. ALOFT, A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND
EASTERN CANADA WITH A STRONGER BELT OF ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN AND MAINTAIN THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONGER-WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE REINFORCED ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S TODAY AND INTO THE LOWER 70S SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
REMAIN DRY AS THE WITH PWATS BELOW THE 50TH PERCENTILE AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO STAY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CONTINENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME FORMING THROUGHOUT THE CONUS. A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT, OVERSPREADING
ZONAL SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES INTO THE MID-SOUTH BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST IN RESPONSE, RETURNING
SOUTHERLIES BACK INTO THE REGION ALONGSIDE HIGHER MOISTURE. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, 60+ F DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MAKE THEIR WAY
UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA AS FAR NORTH AS THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE REGION TO OUR
NORTH, INTERACTING WITH THE HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE, AND
PRODUCING OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS UNCERTAIN
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION, WHICH WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE IN THE ABSENCE OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION, INSTABILITY LOOKS SKINNY WITH MINIMAL UPPER
COOLING. THEREFORE, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LIMITED TUESDAY.
THE FRONT TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXPECTED NORTH OF I-40. TO ITS SOUTH, A WARM, MOIST AIR MASS WILL
BE IN PLACE WITH MID TO UPPER 60 F DEWPOINTS AND PWATS AROUND 2"
(95TH+ PERCENTILE). BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROUGH AS THE ZONAL
WESTERLIES BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE ROCKIES. THE TIMING WILL BE SUCH THAT A CLOSED, MORE
AMPLIFIED WAVE APPEARS UNLIKELY, BUT ENOUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL
OCCUR FOR THE BROAD DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT AND
ENHANCED 925 - 850 MB SOUTHERLIES. AS SURFACE PRESSURE LOWERS,
BOTH ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH PWATS SO HIGH, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
VERY MOIST-ADIABATIC PROFILE, LIMITING MLCAPE TO 500 - 1000 J/KG
ALONG THE FRONT, STEADILY INCREASING WITH SOUTHERLY EXTENT.
THEREFORE, HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT
WHERE CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL BE ABLE TO FALL FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A
SEVERE THREAT CAN ALSO NOT BE IGNORED AS THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
WINDS DO APPEAR TO ENLARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ENOUGH FOR A
TORNADO THREAT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY, PUSHING EAST AND
BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH IT. AT SUNRISE
THURSDAY, MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AS OF RIGHT THIS MORNING'S
MODEL GUIDANCE, THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS SITS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-40 WITH ANYWHERE FROM 2" - 3" OF RAIN AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.
DRY WEATHER WILL STILL RETURN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS
TO OUR EAST, BRINGING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S, REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S BY
FRIDAY. GRADUAL WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT, THEN VEER SSW AND
INCREASE TO 6-10 KTS ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
RH VALUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL HOVER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
35%, BUT FUEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT 20 FT WINDS PRECLUDE ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS . HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CJC
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