952
FXUS64 KMEG 241151
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
551 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
- SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL,
AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
- NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY, LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT DROP TO BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1006MB LOW OVER QUEBEC WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO AND BACK
THROUGH ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI. BEHIND THE FRONT AN EXPANSIVE 1028MB
HIGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT, DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH
OF WESTERN KENTUCKY. ADDITIONALLY, THE LATEST GOES EAST NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS RGB REVEALS LOW STRATUS SPREADING ESE INTO THE
MAJORITY OF WEST TN, THE MO BOOTHEEL, AND NORTHEAST AR.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND IS ANTICIPATED TO MAKE IT
DOWN CLOSE TO THE KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE BORDER. IF THIS HAPPENS,
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE. WE WENT AHEAD AND ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE REST OF THE MID-SOUTH WILL SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH TOMORROW MORNING WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
NBM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RUN 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW
OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. IN FACT,
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE SET AT BOTH MEMPHIS AND JONESBORO
ON TUESDAY. WE OPTED FOR A 50/50 BLEND OF NBM75 AND NBM FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY, WHICH
WOULD TIE OR SET RECORDS EACH DAY AT AT LEAST ONE OF OUR FOUR
CLIMATE SITES. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS PREFERRED THROUGH
SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND 925MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY.
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH QPF TOTALS APPROACHING
HALF AN INCH. ADDITIONALLY, A SHARP 40 DEGREE TEMPERATURE CHANGE
WILL OCCUR BY MONDAY MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE.
BRISK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO BREAK 40 DEGREES AND WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE TEENS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
VFR FORECAST APART FROM INTERMITTENT IMPACTS DUE TO PATCHY FOG
AND MIST THIS MORNING AT JBR AND TUP. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE
THIS MORNING AS DIURNAL MIXING COMMENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE. REGARDLESS,
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR, EVEN IF THEY PERSIST LONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CONTINUED CLEARING EXPECTED. SOME HREF MEMBERS ATTEMPT TO BRING
IMPACTFUL CIGS BACK TO THE REGION AFTER 06Z, BUT HAVE OPTED TO
NOT MENTION GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN VERY LOW ALL WEEK AS HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THE 60% TO 80% RANGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...JAB
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