361
FXUS64 KMEG 112253
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
453 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 451 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
- COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (30-50 PERCENT) OF RAIN SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS BRINGING COLD
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
MORNING. LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S WHILE CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL DROP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S. BY
TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 50S.
SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS STILL INDICATE A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ROTATING THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A SHORT WINDOW FOR LIGHT
RAIN WITH THIS MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT. THUS, 20-30 POPS STILL
SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS.
LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW WITH A LARGE VARIABILITY EXISTING BETWEEN
TIMING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THUS, WE
HAVE KEPT THE LOW NBM POPS FOR NOW AND WILL CONSIDER ADDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHEN MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 451 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, SETTLING BACK TO SW AND
PICKING UP TO AROUND 7 TO 9 KTS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. WHILE A
RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD ALLEVIATE ANY MAJOR CONCERNS. MINRH VALUES
MAY FALL BELOW 40% FOR SOME IN AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH 20 FT
WINDS APPROACHING 10 MPH AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CMA
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