857
FXUS64 KMEG 280533
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1133 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1009 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021/
SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 70S. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH AT
THIS TIME. MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF THE MID-SOUTH HAVE SEEN VISIBILITIES DROP
TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS IN DENSE FOG. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
UNTIL 8 AM CST FOR THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
CANCELLED EARLY IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
ARS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT THIS WEEKEND IS HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT IS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO TENNESSEE
PROVIDING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF I-40. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CURRENTLY ARE NEARING 1.4 INCHES. ALL OF THE MID-SOUTH ARE
IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE OR HIGHER WITH PWATS.
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT WITH MANY POSITIONING IT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL TREND NORTHWARD,
AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MID- SOUTH AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND MOVE SOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES EXPECT TOMORROWS HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
OVERALL, 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. LOCALLY
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WITH DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND CAPE 500-1000 J/KG, A COUPLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WHILE A SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT TRAINING STORMS
SEEMS TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE MID- SOUTH
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. AGAIN, THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE SOME FLASH FLOODING, BUT AREAS WITH ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS, AND AGGRAVATED RIVERS WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED THE MOST.
ALL THIS RAIN WILL END EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES WELL
SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO MID WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MODELS HAVEN'T CHANGED CHANGED MUCH OVERALL,
AND REMAINS VERY MUCH IN DISAGREEMENT, ESPECIALLY BY MID-WEEK.
ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE OTHER ENSEMBLES HAVE THE AREA BASICALLY
DRY. BY LATE WEEK WE HAVE THE SAME SITUATION WHERE SOME ENSEMBLE
MODELS HAVE ANOTHER POTENT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH AND OTHER MODELS
SHOW LITTLE TO KNOW PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT EXPECT A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTER MID-WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
SGW
AVIATION
06Z TAFS
WE ARE SEEING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FG/BR OVER THE AREA SHOULD
ALSO DISSIPATE AS THE STRONGER WINDS MIX THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.
STEADIER, HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WIND AND LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN.
CIGS WILL BE VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS BUT PREVAILING
MVFR TO IFR LEVELS ARE EXPECTED. LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24-30 HOUR TAF CYCLE.
30
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM CST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-
MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM CST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-
PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
TALLAHATCHIE-YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM CST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-
HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-WEAKLEY.
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