181
FXUS64 KMEG 301112
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
612 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
- A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF I-40.
- COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S.
- A WARM AND WET PATTERN WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION, EMBEDDED IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MID LEVEL
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE
SLOWLY RETROGRADING SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY STRETCH EASTERLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BRINGING THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO AN END. THURSDAY WILL BE PLEASANTLY WARM
WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 65 AND 75 DEGREES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
ACCOMPANY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB NORTH, CONFINING RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY SOUTH
OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL HAVE A DECENT IMPRESSION ON THE STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE,
KEEPING QPF VALUES AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOW. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MEDIUM CHANCES (40-70%) OF 0.10" OR MORE OF
PRECIPITATION FALLING. HI-RES CAMS ARE JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE
FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THE 00Z CAMS CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS, WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A STOUT DRY AIR COLUMN THAT
WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEAST AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION KICKING OFF A DRY AND COOL
WEEKEND. COOLER MORNINGS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S AND 50S AND PLEASANT AFTERNOONS WITH READINGS IN THE
60S AND 70S AS WE ROLL INTO MAY. A DEEP, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS CANADA AND STEER THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON MONDAY, WE RESIDE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND RETURN FLOW RAMPS UP. THIS WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. AN EMERGING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE PLAINS WILL STRETCH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR REGION, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY TUESDAY. THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REGARDING SHOWER ARRIVAL, INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE ONCE THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS. THE LREF IS PINGING LOW
(<30%) JOINT PROBABILITIES OF 500 J/KG OF CAPE AND 30 KTS OF BULK
SHEAR DUE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LIFT FROM A COLD FRONT.
THESE PROBABILITIES HANG AROUND DAILY UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA, WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE LREF SUGGESTS
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FAVORING NEXT WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THAT IS A WEEK AWAY AND COULD CHANGE.
NONETHELESS, ENJOY A DRY AND COOL WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER WARM AND
WET PATTERN UNFOLDS NEXT WEEK.
DNM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD ACROSS
THE AIRSPACE, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AGAIN THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY,
UP TO AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAYTIME BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK
BELOW 7 KTS IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD DUE TO
RECENT WETTING RAINS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL
TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH 20FT WINDS REMAINING LIGHT.
SATURDAY PRESENTS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RH VALUES
TO DROP NEAR 35%.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CMA
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