953
FXUS64 KMEG 311127
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
627 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
-A VERY UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE PATTERN WILL EMERGE THIS WEEK.
SEVERAL DAYS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.
-SEVEN DAY TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 10 TO 15 INCH RANGE,
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FALLING FROM WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY.
-AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY, A
SLIGHT RISK IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY.
-A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT BOTH
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
THE LAST FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE DUE TO EXIT INTO MIDDLE TN AND
ALABAMA IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, GIVING WAY TO ONE OF THE ONLY
BENIGN PERIODS OF THIS ENTIRE FORECAST PACKAGE. POST-FRONTAL
RIDGING WILL CREATE A MOSTLY DRY AND WARM COUPLE OF DAYS, BARRING
A FEW ROGUE STORMS OVER NORTHEAST AR LATE TUESDAY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY STARTS UP AN EXTREMELY BUSY STRETCH OF WEATHER FEATURING
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
WEDNESDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY AN EARLY
APRIL STRONG COLD FRONT WITH AN OPEN WARM SECTOR. BEFORE THE
STORMS EVEN ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, NON-THUNDERSTORM GRADIENT
WINDS WILL BE HOWLING FROM THE SOUTH. PROBABILITIES OF SUSTAINED
WINDS > 25 MPH ARE LIT UP OVER THE USUAL PROBLEM AREA OF NORTHEAST
AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL, SO WE'LL ALMOST CERTAINLY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY THERE AT SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. DIGGING
MORE INTO THE SEVERE PARAMETER SPACE, THIS IS AN EXTREMELY WELL
BALANCED ENVIRONMENT WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY OVERLAPPING
AT OPPORTUNE TIMES. WE'LL BE WORKING WITH AT LEAST 1500 J/KG OF
CAPE AND UPWARDS OF 50 KTS OF BULK SHEAR. COMBINED WITH PWATS
NEARLY MAXED OUT OF CLIMATOLOGY AT 1.8 INCHES AND MID TO UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS, THIS WILL BE A HIGHLY VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. THESE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND STRONG TORNADOES.
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO MOVE IN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THIS INITIAL COLD FRONT. THE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX
AND SHIFT OF TAILS SUGGEST A POTENTIALLY HIGH-END QPF EVENT FROM
12Z WEDNESDAY TO 12Z THURSDAY, WARRANTING A LARGE MODERATE RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THIS STRONG QPF SIGNAL IS PREVALENT FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL BECAUSE THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL RIGHT ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND BARELY MOVE
UNTIL THE WEEKEND. WE'RE LOOKING AT A MULTI-DAY EVENT WHERE
EXTREMELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL-PRODUCING STORMS TRAIN ALONG THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. EACH 6 HOUR PERIOD OF QPF FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY MORNING FEATURES AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN,
WITH THE HEAVIEST RECURRING DOWNPOURS ALONG THE AR/MO AND TN/KY
STATE LINES. STORM TOTAL QPF LOOKS EASILY OVER 10 INCHES UP IN
THAT AREA JUST DUE TO THE EFFICIENCY, TRAINING, AND LONGEVITY OF
THESE STORMS. QPF STARTS TO TAPER OFF TO BELOW 6 INCHES THE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO.
YET ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THOUGH
THIS SECONDARY WAVE DOESN'T NECESSARILY LOOK AS KINEMATIC AS THE
FIRST, WE'LL HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO FEATURE AT LEAST A
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW WELL THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO BECOME
ORGANIZED. TIMING OF THURSDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER LATE AFTERNOON TO PERHAPS EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY.
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIVE UP TO ITS NAME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
BURSTS OF ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL HIT THE
BOUNDARY AND CORRAL MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL UP THE
I-40 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO TELL SEVERE WEATHER
SPECIFICS FOR THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND PERIOD, BUT THE
SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS VERY STRONG. CANNOT EMPHASIZE
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL ENOUGH FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THOUGH EACH
INDIVIDUAL DAY OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN MAY NOT SEEM LIKE A LOOMING
AMOUNT, THE CULMINATION OF THIS OVER A WEEK WILL REALLY PUT A
STRAIN ON THE GROUND'S ABILITY TO ABSORB. AT SOME POINT, SOILS
WILL BECOME SUPERSATURATED AND LEAVE NO OPTION BUT TO REJECT ALL
THE ADDITIONAL RAIN AS RUNOFF. FLASH FLOODING WILL EMERGE AS A
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS EXTREMELY ACTIVE PATTERN. RELIEF IS
FINALLY IN SIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SUNDAY EVENING.
CAD
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS ONLY AFFECTING TUP. CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER
THE COMING HOURS. AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO CLEAR THE AREA,
SKIES WILL FOLLOW SUIT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL HANG BETWEEN 10-13 KTS TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
AND DROPPING BELOW 7 KTS AFTER SUNSET.
DNM
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...DNM
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