775
FXUS64 KMEG 191736
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1136 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
- SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON SATURDAY, WITH A HIGH
PROBABILITY (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT) OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING
25 MPH.
- SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES (30-50 PERCENT) WILL PERSIST FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE, BUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
- CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM, WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
A COLD FRONT CLEARED THE MID-SOUTH SEVERAL HOURS AGO, LEAVING A
COOL, CANADIAN AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S UNTIL RETURN FLOW CAN ADVECT SOME
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THANKS TO THE WETTING RAIN LAST NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE EASING
WIND GUSTS, FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS NOT A CONCERN FOR FRIDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND
ADVECT WARMER AND MOISTER AIR BACK TO THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL TAKE AIM AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLIGHTLY AND BRING GUSTY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA.
PROBABILITIES FROM THE NBM OF WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH ARE HIGH
(>70%) NEARLY AREA WIDE, BUT THESE PROBABILITIES DROP OFF RATHER
QUICKLY FOR GREATER THAN 35 MPH GUSTS (30-50%) AND SHRINK
GEOGRAPHICALLY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND KEEP CONDITIONS COOLER ON SUNDAY.
THE FORCING OF THIS FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AND THE
AIR BEHIND IT IS NOT DRASTICALLY DRIER OR COOLER, BUT IT WILL
PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI, SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS, AND SOUTHERN WEST
TENNESSEE.
TO START THE WORK WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW RIDGE RIDERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND DAILY SHOWER CHANCES (GENERALLY 30-50%) WILL PERSIST
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. DESPITE SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN CHANCES, THE
PROBABILITY OF ACCUMULATING 1" OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS
LESS THAN 10% AREAWIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BECOME MORE
CENTRALIZED OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY RAMP
UP. TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS DAY ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 70
DEGREES, WHICH IS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AT LEAST FOR
MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL, IF THE CURRENT PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURE
OF 72 DEGREES IS ACHIEVED, THIS WOULD BE A TIE FOR THE 5TH WARMEST
CHRISTMAS SINCE 1875. UNFORTUNATELY, OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER DO NOT FAVOR A COOL DOWN ANYTIME SOON AS THE
REGION IS FAVORED (60-80%) TO EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE NEW YEAR.
DNM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING S/SE ACROSS THE AIRSPACE
BY 00Z. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT, BEFORE
INCREASING IN SPEED AROUND TO AFTER 12Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HOVERING AROUND 30-40%. WITH WETTING
RAIN THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE EASING WIND
GUSTS, FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS NOT A CONCERN FOR FRIDAY DESPITE
LOW RHS. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AND DAILY
RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CURBING FIRE
DANGER CONCERNS FOR THE NEAR FUTURE.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CMA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page