363
FXUS64 KMEG 111154
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
554 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
- SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN LATE FRIDAY, AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WEEKEND RAIN TOTALS WILL BE IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
A MILD EVENING PREVAILS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY
INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AT
10 PM. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT,
EXITING JUST AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF MUCAPE EXIST,
ALLOWING FOR A <15% CHANCE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A
TENTH TO A LITTLE MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH. THERE IS A 20-30%
CHANCE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG THE TN RIVER COULD PICK UP A HALF
INCH. ANY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF BY NOON ON WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MOSTLY DRY.
RAIN CHANCES START TO BUILD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST US AND NORTHERN MEXICO. SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY START TO DEVELOP ALONG
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION TOWARD THE
MID-SOUTH. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES, SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND TRACK ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GENERAL TREND IS A SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHERLY SURFACE LOW TRACK, WHICH KEEPS THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER VERY LOW (<10%). PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO AVERAGE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND
THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE (30-50%) OF MORE THAN
2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE
LOCATED ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
PACIFIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WITH RAIN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH FOR MVFR CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ACROSS THE AREA. NNE WINDS 6-11 KTS WILL
VEER E BY THURSDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN
LOW DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WETTING RAIN
CHANCES AND ELEVATED MOISTURE.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CJC
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