138
FXUS64 KMEG 122117
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
317 PM CST MON NOV 12 2018
DISCUSSION
AREAS OF DRIZZLE...PATCHY FOG AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS HOUR. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW
40S TO THE MID 50S WITH NORTH WINDS OF GENERALLY 10 TO 20MPH.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION FROM A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST
WILL COME TO AN END LATE TONIGHT IN THE WEST AND SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY FOR THE EAST. SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY
NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30'S...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REACHING FREEZING. FOR
THAT REASON STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR A FEW STRAY SNOW FLURRIES MAY BE SEEN BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS EAST. THIS THREAT WOULD MAINLY BE SEEN IN THE
MIDNIGHT TO 3AM TIME FRAME. CLEARING SKIES WITH DRIER LOW-LEVEL
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
RUNNING NEAR 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE PERIOD OF GREATEST IMPACT FOR THE
MIDSOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. MODELS BECOMING BETTER ALIGNED
WITH THE TRACK OF A NEWLY FORM 500MB LOW IN NORTH TEXAS THIS
PERIOD. TAKING IT GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER/LOWER
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. ON THE SURFACE AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF INTO ALABAMA AND
EVENTUALLY BACK TOWARDS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...ACTING AS AN AVENUE
FOR BOTH MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO RIDE ALONG. AS THE UPPER LOW
DEEPENS IN ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LEADING EDGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH COUNTIES
WHERE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES SEEN OFF BUFKIT WILL BE NEARLY BE
SUBFREEZING. THUS A WINTRY MIX SHOULD TRANSPIRE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE LIFTING MOISTURE WILL REACH THE SNOW
DENDRITIC ZONE AROUND -15C. THIS APPEARS TO TAKE PLACE RIGHT OVER
THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AROUND MIDNIGHT. SO CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY
BUILDING THAT ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND POTENTIALLY SOME MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE SEEN OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH BEFORE NOON THURSDAY. PLAN ON CHANGING
CONFIDENCE LEVELS IN BOTH THE AFTERNOON HWO AND THE CURRENT SPS.
TIMING DIFFERENCES OF A FEW HOURS ARE STILL OBSERVED BETWEEN
MODELS WITH THE GFS REMAINING THE FASTEST. FOR NOW HAVE TAKEN A
BLEND ON TIMING. TO NOTE THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER IS NOW
PLACING SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND ADJACENT AREAS IN THE FAVORED
TROWAL/DEFORMATION ZONE FOR ACCUMULATION SNOW. WORKING AGAINST THE
SNOWFALL WILL BE TEMPERATURES IN THE 31-33F RANGE AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. SO TRICKY FORECAST AS TO HOW HARD
THE SNOW WILL FALL AND HOW MUCH WILL BE ABLE TO STICK. FOR NOW 1
TO UP TO 3 INCHES SEEMS PLAUSIBLE PROMPTING A FUTURE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA OR CLOSE TO THE
MEMPHIS METRO...MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE NEVER REALLY GETS
ESTABLISHED SO PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED WITH A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES MAY OCCUR. OR NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL AS THE DRY
SLOT CLIPS THAT AREA. MOISTURE WILL EXIT FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH
ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE HELPING TO MELT ANY
EARLIER SNOWFALL.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY A DRY PERIOD WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY BRING SOME
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE ON SUNDAY.
JAB
AVIATION
18Z TAFS
INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN HAD MOSTLY LIFTED THROUGH AT 1730Z, AWAITING
AWAITING SECOND BATCH OF LIFT AND SHOWERS THIS EVENING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIM, BUT THIS
SHOULD WINDOW SHOULD CLOSE WITH THE SETTING SUN AND ARRIVAL OF
WEAKER SECOND WAVE OF LIFT TOWARD 23Z.
-FZDZ NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT JBR/MEM/MKL AFTER 10Z, BUT
CHANCES LIKELY BELOW 20 PERCENT GIVEN INFLUX OF DRY AIR. THIS DRY
AIR SHOULD ALSO BRING CEILINGS TO MVFR AT ALL BUT PERHAPS TUP
MIDMORNING TUESDAY.
PWB
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
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