848
FXUS64 KMEG 180003 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
603 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S TO 60S THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH A BRIEF COOL DOWN BACK INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S
ON FRIDAY.
- WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON THURSDAY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH
WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH.
- MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING, WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE 50S ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH.
A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH BY
TOMORROW EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE INTO THE MID-SOUTH. THIS DOES BRING UP A QUESTIONABLE
FORECAST INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE WILL BE UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT AND FORCING FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM, THE MAIN
QUESTION REMAINS IF WE WILL BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE
AREA. CAMS CONTINUE TO DEPICT MEAGER LAPSE RATES WITH EVEN MUCAPE
VALUES STRUGGLING TO REACH ABOVE 150 J/KG. SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL
APPROACH 60°, BUT THIS CORRIDOR WOULD LIKELY REMAIN IN NORTH MS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES, CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW GIVEN THE LACK
OF INSTABILITY. IF 90TH PERCENTILE PROBABILITIES WERE ABLE TO BE
REALIZED, THEN THERE COULD BE A NARROW WINDOW OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ALONG THE MAIN LINE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE STRONG LLJ, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. REGARDLESS OF THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR TOMORROW,
WITH THE INCREASING LLJ WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY BY MID-
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. NBM PROBABILITIES SUGGEST OVER A 70%
CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID-SOUTH, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NE AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL
HAVING AROUND A 30% TO 40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 40 MPH. SINCE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, WE
WILL
LEAVE THINGS AS-IS FOR NOW. HOWEVER, IF CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO
INCREASE IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES THEN A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 40S TO LOW 50S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS SURFACE WINDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO SOUTHERLY ON
SATURDAY WITH WARM AIR RETURNING TO THE MID-SOUTH. MILD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. THIS WILL MEAN THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO 60S,
AT LEAST, ARE HERE TO STAY. WHILE A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
COULD BRING SCATTERED (20% TO 30%) POP CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS. AS WE NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH, DO NOT EXPECT FOR US TO BREAK
OUT OF THIS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN ANYTIME SOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
00Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED IFR WITH POCKETS OF LIFR FROM LIT
NORTHEAST TO NEAR HKA, AND A LARGER AREA OF MVFR DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE MEM TRACON. KLZK AND KNQA RADARS SHOWED AREAS OF -DZ,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
LAMP AND NBM CIG GUIDANCE DEPICTS OCCASIONAL VFR THIS EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF CLEARING WERE NOTED ON GOES IR IMAGERY
OVER SOUTHERN AR. BUT THIS CANNOT BE COUNTED ON TO PERSIST IN A
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS SUCH, THE TAFS MAINTAIN
PREVAILING MVFR.
FOR THURSDAY, TS CHANCES APPEAR SLIM FOR MEM AND MAY BE REMOVED
IF 00Z GUIDANCE CONCURS.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MINRH
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40% THROUGH TOMORROW WITH SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. WHILE MINRH VALUE COULD BRIEFLY DIP BELOW
40% ON FRIDAY, 20KFT WINDS ALONG WITH RECENT RAINS SHOULD CURB
ANY FIRE WEATHER DANGER. MINRH VALUES WILL RISE BACK ABOVE 40%
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...PWB
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