034  
FXUS64 KMEG 210241 AAA  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
941 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
OTHER THAN A FEW MIDLEVEL CLOUDS OVER WEST TN AND NORTHEAST AR,  
SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE MIDSOUTH. DESPITE FEWER CLOUDS THAN 24  
HOURS AGO, TEMPS THIS EVENING WERE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.  
 
CURRENT OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A QUICK LOOK AT THE  
NEWLY-ARRIVED 00Z MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL  
STORM BETA WILL LIFT INTO THE DELTA PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.  
LATEST GRIDS NOW INCLUDE HOURLY PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS  
PERIOD, BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT TERM BLENDS.  
 
PWB  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 630 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2020/  
 
UPDATE...  
 
AVIATION UPDATE BELOW  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2020/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
ANOTHER PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. TEMPERATURES  
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH A  
LIGHT EASTERLY WIND. A WEAK CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA,  
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH.  
 
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY AS BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER  
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER THE AREA. TROPICAL STORM BETA IS  
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST MONDAY  
AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE  
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE TS BETA AT THIS TIME.  
 
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS BETA AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE  
ARKLATEX BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AS A REMNANT LOW MOVING INTO OUR  
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK  
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, WITH A RATHER SHARP PRECIPITATION  
GRADIENT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,  
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-40 THROUGH THIS  
PERIOD. WPC PAINTS AN AREA OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF QPF SOUTH OF I-40,  
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. NOT A TON OF RAINFALL WITH THIS  
SYSTEM, BUT PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING US OUT OF THE CURRENT D1  
DROUGHT OVER NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.  
 
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS A BIT MESSY. BOTH SYNOPTIC MODELS  
SUGGEST THAT AN OPEN WAVE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. THIS WOULD KEEP DECENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
AC3  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF  
 
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS ENE  
5-10KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE 8-12KTS AND WE COULD GET A FEW  
GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND THE 15-20KT RANGE AT END OF TAF CYCLE.  
 
SMW  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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