007  
FXUS64 KMEG 151759  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1259 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1012 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL  
DEPRESSION BARRY IS OVER WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND CONTINUES TO  
MOVE NORTH. MOST OF THE RAIN OVER THE REGION IS CURRENTLY EAST OF  
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE MORE RAIN DURING THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.  
 
ARS  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2019/  
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY'S SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER  
SOUTHWEST AR DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. UNLIKE SUNDAY MORNING,  
COLDER CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS WERE NOTED OVER THE SURFACE LOW. IN  
ADDITION, GOES EAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT  
EXTENDING FROM NORTH TX, ACROSS SOUTHERN AR, EXTENDING TO THE  
NORTHWEST MS. THIS DRY SLOT WAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED  
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION AND HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER NORTHEAST MS.  
 
SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT TODAY IF LOW LEVEL  
CLOUDS BREAKS DEVELOP UNDER THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT. GIVEN THE  
STRONGLY BACKED FLOW EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, INSTABILITY  
WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.  
 
REGARDING FLOOD THREAT, OVERALL QPF HAS BEEN REVISED DOWNWARD FROM  
EARLIER FORECASTS. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF SIGNIFICANT  
RAINFALL ARE STILL POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH TRAINING RAIN BANDS.  
SIMILAR TO THE TORNADO THREAT, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY BE  
MODULATED TO A GREAT DEGREE BY LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. A DAY TO PAY  
EXTRA ATTENTION TO GOES IMAGERY.  
 
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE SURFACE LOW WILL FILL AS THE 500MB  
CIRCULATION OPENS AND LIFTS INTO THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY.  
TUESDAY'S RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE MORE HYBRID TROPICAL-MID  
LATITUDE CONVECTION. SOME TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL TROF, AIDED BY  
INCREASED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL  
LIKELY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING OVER WEST TN, AIDED BY A 45  
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.  
 
FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF BARRY'S LAST REMNANTS WEDNESDAY, A BROAD  
5940M 500MB HEIGHT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL BLENDED GUIDANCE DEPICTS LATE WEEK SURFACE  
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S, ACCOMPANIED BY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN  
THE LOWER 90S. HEAT INDICES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AS EARLY  
AS THURSDAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER, AND THEN OVER THE  
REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
PWB  
   
AVIATION
 
 
TD BARRY WILL IMPACT THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN BANDS  
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE REGION WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY  
RAIN. TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS  
EVENING THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDES TEMPOS ANYWHERE  
EXPECT KTUP. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE EVENING  
BEFORE DETERIORATING AGAIN TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR OVERNIGHT.  
LATEST CAMS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED  
TSRAS WILL DEVELOP FOR CENTRAL AR INTO THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  
HAVE INTRODUCED SOME TEMPOS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. WINDS  
WILL BE SSE SLOWLY VEERING TO SW BY THE END OF PERIOD WITH OCNL  
GUSTS TO 25 KTS.  
 
SJM  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR PHILLIPS.  
 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-  
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-ST.  
FRANCIS.  
 
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.  
 
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALCORN-CALHOUN-  
CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PANOLA-  
PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-  
UNION-YALOBUSHA.  
 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON MS-DESOTO-  
MARSHALL-TATE-TUNICA.  
 
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR HARDIN.  
 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-  
CROCKETT-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-  
LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.  
 

 
 

 
 
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