170
FXUS64 KMEG 142258
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
558 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2020
UPDATE
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 353 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2020/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH BY TOMORROW. I'M NOT
SURE HOW HOT A HOOCHIE COOCHIE IS, BUT WE'RE FIXIN' TO FIND OUT
WHAT ALAN JACKSON WAS TALKING ABOUT. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD
OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES GRADUALLY EXPANDS TO THE EAST. THE WEAK, CUT-
OFF LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND SLOWLY
MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM.
ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM/DRY
EVENING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY IN THE UPPER
60S THIS AFTERNOON BUT THAT WILL CHANGE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK
ACROSS THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AR, THE BOOTHEEL, AND NORTHWEST TN BUT ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO NEAR 2.1 INCHES. WE DON'T ANTICIPATE A LOT OF
COVERAGE OWING TO A BIT OF A CAP, BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
WELCOME GIVEN FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES NEAR 105F.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION TOMORROW WILL END AROUND SUNSET BUT THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA (CLOSER TO THE KY/MO BORDERS) AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, BUT OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTION COULD MOVE
INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS AND SPAWN ADDITIONAL CELLS. THURSDAY
WILL BE MUCH LIKE TOMORROW WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AREA
WIDE. THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED ACROSS MOST OR
ALL OF THE CWA. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS IN
THE BALLPARK OF 2 INCHES WITH A GENERALLY UNCAPPED THERMAL
PROFILE.
MJ
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE ZONE OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYING OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. PATTERN DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH SO
EXPECT DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DIE DOWN WHEN THE SUN SETS. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE A
LITTLE MORE HEAVY HANDED WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SO STUCK
WITH THE NAM AND EURO MODELS. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL
REMAIN INTO THE LOW 90'S AND HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO, IF NOT
EXCEEDING 100F DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOME AREAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY WITH HEAT INDICES AT OR
HIGHER THAN 105F. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WARM
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70'S.
SMW
AVIATION
00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME S WINDS BETWEEN 6-10 KTS. A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE AT JBR ON
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF SET.
CJC
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LEE-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-
ST. FRANCIS.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-
YALOBUSHA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR DYER-FAYETTE-
HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.
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