385
FXUS64 KMEG 261126
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
626 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
- A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ENHANCED (LEVEL 3/5) RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES IS IN PLACE.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TUESDAY EVENING WHERE A SLIGHT (2/5) RISK IS IN EFFECT.
- WEATHER WILL COOL OFF AND DRY OUT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 70S AND LOW 80S AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
WARM, CALM CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RESIDE OVER THE MID-SOUTH NORTH
OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ORIGINATING FROM THE PLAINS
THIS EVENING WILL MAKE A CLOSE PASS TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN-MOST
ZONES, BUT THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE REGION TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, SOME FOG COULD
DEVELOP IN LOW-LYING AREAS ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
AS SUNDAY PROGRESSES, UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST, WHICH WILL ACT
TO KEEP POPS BELOW 40% ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, OUT WEST AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL FLATTEN INTO A
BROAD JET STREAK THAT WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, CAUSING SOUTHERLIES TO RETURN TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, LIFTING THE COLD/STATIONARY FRONT BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. THE AIR MASS THAT WILL REPLACE THE CURRENT ONE
WILL BE VERY TROPICAL, CONTAINING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND INTO THE LOW 70S AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AIR
POLEWARD. THE UPPER JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED LOW-AMPLITUDE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST IN THE MEANTIME. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING
AMIDST SEASONABLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IS FORECAST TO YIELD WELL OVER
2500 J/KG MLCAPE BY MID-AFTERNOON, EVEN WITHOUT SUBSTANTIAL UPPER
COOLING FROM THE TROUGH. BULK SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 40 KNOTS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS THE JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
WHEN IT COMES TO SPECIFIC HAZARDS, PARTICULARLY THE TORNADO
THREAT, THE FORECAST IS STILL UNCERTAIN. TORNADOES ARE DEFINITELY
POSSIBLE AS STRONG BULK SHEAR, 0-3 KM SRH VALUES ABOVE 250 M2/S2,
AND 2500 J/KG MLCAPE WILL BE JUXTAPOSED FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER, PREFRONTAL STORMS THAT COULD TAP INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT
APPEAR UNLIKELY WITHOUT THE SUPPORT OF THE LIFT FROM THE TROUGH
TO OUR NORTH. THAT BEING SAID, ANY SUBTLE INCREASE IN PREFRONTAL
TROUGHING COULD BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO GET A FEW STORMS GOING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE MORE LIKELY SOLUTION IS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE TO OUR NORTH IN MISSOURI THAT TRACKS SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS THE 925 MB - 850 MB JET
INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE LINE, ENOUGH SRH
AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO RETAIN A QLCS TORNADO AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR NOW, SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE
ENHANCED (LEVEL 3/5) RISK THROUGH THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
REGION WITH A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/5) RISK COVERING THE REST OF THE
MID-SOUTH FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.
MONDAY'S STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN AND/OR MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION BY SUNRISE TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THEM
WILL NOT CLEAR THE REGION. MODELS HAVE STEADILY TRENDED TOWARDS
ARRIVAL OF A SECOND, LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH AND JET STREAK TUESDAY
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WOULD ACT TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A SURFACE
RESPONSE TO LIFT TO THE NOW STATIONARY BOUNDARY BACK NORTH,
RECOVERING THE LOST MOISTURE FROM MONDAY NIGHT. IF RAIN AND
CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY, MLCAPE COULD VERY WELL
REACH 2500+ J/KG AGAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING 40+ KNOTS
OF BULK SHEAR. THE BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WITH MOST GUIDANCE RESOLVING CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
REGION TUESDAY EVENING THAT WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND,
HAIL, AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS AND WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL GROW
UPSCALE OR REMAIN MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED AS SUPERCELLS THAT WILL
DETERMINE THE PREDOMINANT TYPE OF HAZARDS.
STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE SECOND TROUGH EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST, KICKING A
COLD FRONT BACK SOUTH THROUGH BEHIND THE STORMS. THE EXACT
DISTANCE THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS STILL UNCERTAIN
AS ENSEMBLES KEEP SOME INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL DROP INTO THE 70S
AND LOW 80S, DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY. ENSEMBLES
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND TRAVEL ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING OUR NEXT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION. AT THIS
TIME, INSTABILITY APPEARS LOW TO NON-EXISTENT, SIGNIFICANTLY
DIMINISHING ANY CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG (~30%) THROUGH 13Z AT MKL
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
RECENT RAINFALL AND UPCOMING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 40%
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK 20 FT
WINDS, FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...SJM
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