504
FXUS64 KMEG 122345 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
645 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK, MAINTAINING A
LOCALIZED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER BY LATE WEEK AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DECREASE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS, BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-RELATED HEADLINES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THE MID-SOUTH IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY
COOL MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
GOES EAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, POSITIONED BETWEEN AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR, CONSISTENT
WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND WOBBLE WESTWARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION,
SUPPORTING RECURRING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ON MONDAY TO SCATTERED-
TO-NUMEROUS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S. WITH PWAT VALUES
RISING ABOVE 2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY, EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES
MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS, THOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS UNLIKELY. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE
FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS.
BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT SOUTH
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, REDUCING RAIN CHANCES.
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 100F TO 108F, WHICH MAY NECESSITATE HEAT-
RELATED HEADLINES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING, AS SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. MVFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS, MAINLY AT MKL AND TUP. THIS MAY TRANSITION TO MVFR
CIGS WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MONDAY'S SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO TUP,
NEAR THE VICINITY OF A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT, PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. ADDITIONALLY, PERSISTENT DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENSURE FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN WELL-SUPPORTED, MITIGATING WILDFIRE RISK.
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB
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