189
FXUS64 KMEG 190407
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1107 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES, WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL ARISE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. OBEY ANY LOCAL BURN BANS AND PROPERLY
DISPOSE OF CIGARETTES AND MATCHES.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH INTO
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK AS AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PUSH COOLER AIR SOUTH.
SO, TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN QUITE MODERATED AND AROUND
NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S. EVENING UPPER
AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM BOTH LZK AND OHX SHOW THE PRESENCE OF VERY
DRY AIR NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE, BUT ALOFT. DIURNAL MIXING OF
THIS DRIER LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BRING DEWPOINTS WELL BELOW THE
CURRENT NBM FORECAST (~40 F) DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL OVER
THE PAST MONTH, OR POTENTIALLY LONGER IN SOME PLACES, FUELS ARE
VERY DRY AND WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SPREADING WILDFIRES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH A RIDGE AXIS FROM TEXAS THROUGH MINNESOTA EMERGING FROM
THE UPPER PATTERN. IRONICALLY, THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND MIDWEST WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME, OR AT LEAST THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL DROP TO NEGLIGIBLE
LEVELS. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY NULLIFY ANY ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR
DURING DAYTIME HOURS, AND WITH NO MOISTURE RETURN ON THE HORIZON,
WILL LEAD TO DRASTIC DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS. LOWS ON TUESDAY
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 DEGREES, JUMPING
NEARLY 30 TO 35 DEGREES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGHS
PROJECTED IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND LOW 80S. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
HIGHS ALONGSIDE NO RAINFALL. FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL LIKELY
REMAIN A CONCERN AS WELL WITH NO MOISTURE RELIEF OR PRECIPITATION
TO WET FUELS.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE ONLY MOVED SLIGHTLY EAST, ORIENTED FROM
TEXAS THROUGH MICHIGAN SATURDAY. SPREAD DOES INCREASE INTO
SUNDAY, BUT EVEN THEN, THE MEAN SOLUTION IS FOR RESIDUAL UPPER
RIDGING TO REMAIN OVER THE MID-SOUTH. THEREFORE, IT SEEMS LIKELY
THAT MORE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR AND LIGHT SE/E WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST MONDAY AS LOW HUMIDITY AND
VERY DRY FUELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT. A RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST AREA. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR DEWPOINT VALUES TO
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT.
ADDITIONALLY, FEMS 10-HOUR FUEL FORECASTS CALL FOR FUEL MOISTURE
CONTENT VALUES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 PERCENT AT NEARLY ALL
FORECAST POINTS IN THE AREA. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT, ONLY MAXIMIZING AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE NORTHEAST, KEEPING
HIGHER FIRE DANGER CONCERNS LIMITED.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST, LEADING TO MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK. SO, EXPECT ADDITIONAL RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS THROUGH THE WEEK UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO MONDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...SJM
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