046
FXUS64 KMEG 022339
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
539 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE MID-SOUTH THIS EVENING.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF COOLDOWN TO NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
- WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
THE LATEST NQA RADAR SWEEP INDICATES LIGHT RAIN OVERSPREADING
MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. THIS INFLUX OF
PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE IS BEING AIDED BY A SURFACE LOW,
CURRENTLY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION, AND AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD
FRONT, CURRENTLY DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. AS WE
MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THIS FRONT WILL GIVE LIFT TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER WEST TENNESSEE. SOUTH OF THIS COLD FRONT,
A DECENT SWATH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI, AIDING DECENT RAINFALL RATES AS WELL AS OPEN A SMALL
WINDOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
SEVERE CHANCES ANYWHERE OVER THE MID-SOUTH TODAY, HOWEVER, REMAIN
SLIM TO NONE AS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO A LACK OF
DAYTIME HEATING, AS WELL AS FORECAST SOUNDING ARE HINTING AT ONLY
UP TO 250 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI. DESPITE FORECAST
PWATS AROUND 1.25", NEARING THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, FORECAST STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONLY EQUATE TO ONLY
ABOUT 0.25"- 0.7" TODAY.
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST, PAST OUR AREA. AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO
DIMINISH OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, PATCHY FOG MAY SPREAD OVER
THIS AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A VERY
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INVERSION SETS IN. IF FOG DOES FORM OVER
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY SUNRISE. A COOL
AIRMASS AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONT SATURDAY
BRINGING OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS TEMPERATURES NEAR-NORMAL, IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 60S. COME SUNDAY, COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN, COOLING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S TO MID 50S. SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE PRETTY CHILLY WITH
LOWS NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI AT OR BELOW FREEZING
AND SOUTH NEAR OR AT FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
THIS WEEKEND COOLDOWN WILL BE VERY BRIEF, HOWEVER, AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
USHER IN WARMER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO WELL-
ABOVE-NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-
WEEK AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM THURSDAY. THOUGH WE ARE STILL A
LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO IRON OUT THE EXACT DETAILS OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM, ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SEEMINGLY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE UPPER-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW ALSO LOOKS TO PUSH IN FROM THE ROCKIES
WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, THE SET UP OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM COULD CHANGE DRASTICALLY BY NEXT THURSDAY. FOR NOW, WE
KNOW SHOWER AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-50%) ARE
INCREASING TO ROUND OUT NEXT WORKWEEK. BE SURE TO STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.
AEH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
IFR TO MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHIFTS INTO NORTH ALABAMA AND A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TOMORROW AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO VFR CONDITIONS.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE >=50%, AIDED BY TODAY'S
WETTING RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. 20 FT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...JDS
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