889
FXUS64 KMEG 212349 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
649 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH
TODAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND
DRY VEGETATION.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL EDGE
HIGHER EACH DAY.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK NEAR 90% ON FRIDAY
AND REMAIN IN THE 30-50% RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
CONUS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE WEST COAST.
ALOFT, GOES EAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A LARGE CUTOFF LOW JUST OFF THE PAC NW COAST.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 30%, SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS APPROACH 25 MPH, AND VEGETATION REMAINS VERY DRY.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE
MID-SOUTH. MODERATE RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT IN GULF MOISTURE
THROUGH LATE WEEK RESULTING IN HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY, WHICH WILL LOWER FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW EXPANDS AND IMPINGES ON THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI. LOOSELY
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY AS BULK
SHEAR REMAINS BELOW 30 KNOTS. THE ECMWF ESAT DEPICTS PWATS AT OR
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE MID-SOUTH IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MEDIUM
TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY.
THE LATEST LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP AT
LEAST 30 TO 50 POPS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND. LREF
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE EMERGING IN
THE PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SUPPORTS MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WHICH SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK
(2/5) FOR THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH NEXT MONDAY. IT IS A LITTLE EARLY
TO SORT OUT DETAILS AT THE DAY 6/7 TIMEFRAME, BUT IF BOTH THE
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND, CONFIDENCE
WILL INCREASE. AT THE VERY LEAST, MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WILL
IMPACT THE REGION.
AC3
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HOURS. SOME MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE BETWEEN FL060 AND 080 WILL EDGE UP FROM THE ARKLAMISS,
ALONG WITH SOME UNDERLYING CUMULUS AROUND JBR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS RELAX AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY GRADUALLY MODERATES INTO THE 30 TO 35% RANGE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAINFALL RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB
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