356
FXUS64 KMEG 241802
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
102 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
7 DAYS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS STILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, SITUATED AROUND A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED SW TO NE THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CWA. CLOUDS
HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW SUNLIGHT TO MAKE IT TO THE
SURFACE IN SOME LOCATIONS, BUT ENOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TO
KEEP LOWS AT OR BELOW 80 F THIS AFTERNOON. A DIURNAL UPTICK IN
SHOWER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON IS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WITH BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
SKINNY INSTABILITY WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SO, ANY
CONVECTION WOULD POSE, AT MOST, A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LIGHT WINDS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL
REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE REGION INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING,
WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH MOISTURE COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES THROUGH SUNRISE. GUIDANCE DOESN'T SEEM AS
BULLISH ON THIS IDEA WITH THE PROBABILITY OF FOG FROM THE HREF
MAXIMIZING BETWEEN 30% - 40% AROUND THE TENNESSEE RIVER, LIKELY
DUE TO ANVIL DEBRIS OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM DECAYING
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE GULF COAST. SO, DENSE FOG ISN'T LIKELY, BUT
IS NOT OUT OF THE CARDS YET TONIGHT.
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN TO NORTHERN
CONUS WITH WEAK, BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE MID-
SOUTH. THROUGH THE WEEK, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL RETROGRADE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS AND INTO CANADA, AMPLIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY. ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE, SIMILARLY AMPLIFIED, ENSEMBLES SHOW
CLOSED UPPER TROUGHS. AS A CLASSIC OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN, THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION IS THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATED TO CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY. PWATS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.75" - 2.00" THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL,
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILAR THREATS TO WHAT HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN SATURATED
SOILS FROM SEVERAL DAYS OF RAINFALL, ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
THE MID 80S.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE
EASTERN TROUGH IN THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE FORCED SOUTH OVER
NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE PATTERN RESPONDS TO THIS CHANGE BY
BRINGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID-
SOUTH WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE WET, GLOOMY WEATHER THAT WILL HAVE REMAINED OVER THE
REGION FOR A COUPLE WEEKS BY THIS POINT WILL BE FORCED SOUTH WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES DECREASING IN TANDEM. FOR INSTANCE, NBM
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS A 40% - 60% CHANCE OF HIGHS BELOW 80 F
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION, EXPANDING TO ENCOMPASS
THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT, BUT THE COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON
THE PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGHING AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
1745Z KNQA RADAR SHOWED EVIDENCE OF A MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE MS RIVER, JUST WEST OF MEM. A LARGE REGION OF SCATTERED SHRA
WAS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW, EXHIBITING LIMITED ORGANIZATION
POTENTIAL EXCEPT TO THE NORTHWEST OF JBR. GOES DAY CLOUD PHASE
IMAGERY SHOWED LITTLE TO NO CLOUD TOP GLACIATION, INDICATING
LIMITED LIGHTNING POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM. THE EFFECT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE TO THE POINT THAT TSRA HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
AFTERNOON PERIODS OF THE TAFS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL LOW WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND WET GROUND
SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTH/NORTHEAST FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE LA COAST MAY
LIMIT OVERNIGHT FOG POTENTIAL, PRIMARILY AT TUP AND MKL
CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED HOWEVER AND IFR FOG MENTION HAS BEEN
RETAINED FOR BOTH TAFS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WET AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB
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