451
FXUS64 KMEG 062348 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
548 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 536 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 15 PERCENT) OF SEVERE WEATHER
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE
THE MAIN THREATS FOR BOTH DAYS.
- A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST THU
NOV 6 2025
THINGS ARE BENIGN AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY DUE TO A SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT STALLED JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE ACTIVE WITH AN INCOMING
COLD FRONT TOMORROW. THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STAY UP TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES, BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR TWO POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER DAYS – TOMORROW
(FRIDAY) AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. IT’S LOOKING LIKE THE MAJORITY OF FRIDAY’S SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL BE CONFINED TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT WE COULD SEE A
FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MATERIALIZE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
AFTER 4PM FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE CAMS, THERE ARE A FEW
SCENARIOS WHERE THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT DOESN’T EVEN
MATERIALIZE UNTIL IT CROSSES THE TENNESSEE RIVER, WHICH WOULD
LEAVE US PRETTY MUCH DRY ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS IS A VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT JUST DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL INITIALIZE. IF
WE DID SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS BREAK THROUGH, MODEST CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 300 J/KG MAY PROMOTE SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. MOVING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THIS SAME FRONT WILL
STALL JUST SOUTH OF I-40. MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY UNTIL
THE STALLED BOUNDARY GETS A SECOND WIND AND CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE SATURDAY, SOME OF WHICH MAY AGAIN BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THIS
SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR SATURDAY EVENING IS EVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE; CONVECTION WILL HAVE A VERY NARROW WINDOW OF FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO TAP INTO BEFORE EXITING THE AREA. THE
MAIN THREAT, IF ANYTHING DOES MATERIALIZE, WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING, A SECOND AND
MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A 1030 MB
SURFACE HIGH IN ITS WAKE. THE AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
ORIGINATED FROM THE HUDSON BAY AND IS EXTREMELY COLD AND DRY. THIS
STRONG CAA WILL CAUSE OUR FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES BELOW 28°F MONDAY
MORNING IS 80% OR HIGHER FOR WEST TENNESSEE, AND THESE
PROBABILITIES INCREASE TO THE REST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL NOT BE ISSUED SINCE THE LOCALLY
DEFINED GROWING SEASON IS OVER, BUT IT’S WORTH NOTING THAT WE
WILL HAVE WIDESPREAD FROST AND OUR FIRST KILLING FREEZE MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AS
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY.
CAD
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
THIS EVENING, REACHING AROUND 35KT AT MEM, JBR AND MKL. A TEMPO
SURFACE GUST FOR MEM CONSIDERED FOR THE MEM TAF DURING THE
INBOUND PUSH, BUT RAP SOUNDINGS DEPICT A FAIRLY STRONG THERMAL
INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON'S PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE PRECEDED
BY AREAS OF HIGH MVFR CIGS. 12Z HREF TS PROBABILITIES WERE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AT THE TAF SITES. MKL WAS THE
EXCEPTION, WITH 35 PERCENT TS PROBABILITIES BRIEFLY DEPICTED
AROUND 19Z. BY THE TIME THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT REACHES TUP (AFTER
22Z FRIDAY) CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
TS.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40% EACH DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL KICK OFF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN NO SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...PWB
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