437   
FXUS64 KMEG 311123  
AFDMEG  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
623 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
  
UPDATED AT 623 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025  
  
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (30 PERCENT) FOR PATCHY FROST EARLY  
  FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE RIVER.  
  
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN  
  THE 60S.  
  
- RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY   
  MORNING.  
  
  
   
DISCUSSION  
  
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025  
  
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURES AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED  
OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND AN UPPER-LEVEL   
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. LATEST SURFACE  
ANALYSIS PLACES A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR THE LOUISIANA GULF  
COAST. THIS IS RESULTING CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM WINDS,  
AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LATE EVENING TEMPERATURES   
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.  
  
THESE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS NORMALLY ARE EXCELLENT FOR THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S  
TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, SURFACE  
DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED HIGH INTO THE EVENING DUE TO YESTERDAY'S  
RAINFALL. THUS, CONFIDENCE HAS REMAINED LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY  
FROST HEADLINES OVERNIGHT. IF ANY PATCHY FROST DOES OCCUR IT WOULD  
BE PREDOMINANTLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.  
  
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A  
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND  
UPPER MIDWEST, THEN MOVING SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ELEVATED  
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINING TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THE  
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE   
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO   
INDICATE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER   
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MID-SOUTH ON THE EASTERN   
PERIPHERY OF THE AXIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING   
BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS (NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE   
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER) WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.  
  
  
   
AVIATION  
  
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025  
  
VFR CIGS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER  
NORTHEAST MS TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE  
IN THE TUP TAF.   
  
ANS  
  
  
   
FIRE WEATHER  
  
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025  
  
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DAILY MINIMUM  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AVERAGE AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT WITH  
LIGHT 20 FT WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR  
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES  
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.   
  
  
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
  
  
  
  
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC  
AVIATION...ANS  
 
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