882
FXUS64 KMEG 151201
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
601 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH 40 DEGREES.
- A 15 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. A FEW FLURRIES
COULD OCCUR, BUT NO IMPACTS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
EXPECTED.
- MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
AS OF 10 PM, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH LEAVING A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT AHEAD. PERFECT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE PRESENT TONIGHT, BUT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS; THE FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET FOR THURSDAY MORNING. BRISK, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
HAVE THE FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE POWERFUL ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGHS WILL NARROWLY
ESCAPE THE 30S, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-
SOUTH. NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL BE FORTUNATE AND WARM TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S.
THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING,
SO EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
A DEEP TROUGH STRETCHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALMOST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CROSS THE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING.
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS FAVORED THIS PASSAGE TO BE MOSTLY DRY,
HOWEVER, IT NOW APPEARS A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS JUST AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CREEP A TINY BIT OF
MOISTURE INTO THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BRINGING A
15-30% CHANCE OF RAIN, EVEN A FEW FLURRIES MIXED INTO THE
FORECAST. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION, THERE IS A LOT OF DRY
AIR FROM ABOUT 750MB TO THE SURFACE, SO ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF A LIGHT DRIZZLE, SPRINKLES, AND PERHAPS
FLURRIES. THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE, SPECIFICALLY IN THE DGZ, WILL
BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS AND ANY
INCREASING FLURRY CHANCES. THE CURRENT FORECAST SOLUTION FAVORS
THE DRIER LOW LEVELS, SO NO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED.
THE COLD FRONT BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION WILL BRING YET ANOTHER,
EVEN COLDER, AIRMASS TO THE REGION. SUNDAY SPECIFICALLY WILL BE
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S AND 30S WITH SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS. AFTER SUNDAY, A MORE
ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT WILL SET UP AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS
WILL LEAD THE WAY. COLD MORNINGS WITH MORE MILD AFTERNOONS ARE
EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR 50 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON
BY MIDWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AND GRADUALLY BE
PUSHED EAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
NIL UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DNM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT 30 HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH
THIS EVENING AND INCREASE ABOVE 10 KT. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
SIGNAL FOR LLWS DEVELOPING FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
VERY LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY, WITH AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER HOVERING AROUND 20%. HOWEVER, 20-FT WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE WIDESPREAD FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS. 20-FT WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY, BUT RH VALUES
WILL REBOUND AHEAD OF A WEAK WARM FRONT AND A 10-15% CHANCE FOR
WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...AC3
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