093
FXUS64 KMEG 050411
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1111 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
OVER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK; PLEASE EXERCISE CAUTION AND HEED
LOCAL BURN BANS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
MIDWEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNING LATE NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S WITH VALUES IN THE 60S IN
ITS WAKE. THIS FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNRISE RESULTING
IN A COOL, FALL-LIKE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY IN THE DRY AIR MASS WITH PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE ON MONDAY, USING MAX TEMPERATURE VALUES FROM THE 75TH
PERCENTILE OF THE NBM. WITH THE WARMING OF TEMPERATURES AND
EXTREMELY DRY AIR, EXPECT MINIMUM RH VALUES TO PLUMMET EACH
AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI, MAY
FALL BELOW 25% OR EVEN 20%. THIS IS A CRITICAL THRESHOLD FOR FIRE
WEATHER, SO PLEASE MONITOR CONDITIONS IF YOU PLAN ON BURNING IF
YOU ARE NOT UNDER A BURN BAN. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES AROUND
500MB.
ON THURSDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT GETS SLIGHTLY DISRUPTED AS MOISTURE
TRIES TO CLIMB UP THE DELTA, BUT WILL STRUGGLE DUE TO THE
BATTERING RAM OF DRY AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP A BIT,
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT ON THE
INFLUENCE OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ON THE MID-SOUTH LATE THIS
WEEKEND, WHILE THE GFS REMAINS ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LREF
IS ALSO FOLLOWING SUIT WITH THE ECMWF, SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
TO MONITOR.
DNM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
VFR AND NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
30 HOURS, AS DRY CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE
MIDSOUTH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 30%
WITH LOCAL AREAS AROUND 25% OR LESS. WARMER WEATHER WILL ENTER
THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO A SHARP DECREASE IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, DROPPING TO
25% OR BELOW. THIS WILL MARK THE RETURN OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
LIGHT 20-FOOT WINDS AND RECENT WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CURTAIL A HIGHER THREAT OF FIRE DANGER.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB
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