275
FXUS64 KMEG 272259
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
459 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
- CHILLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WE COULD SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES, MAINLY NORTH OF I-40,
SATURDAY MORNING THOUGH IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEXT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING THAT COULD BRING HEAVY
RAIN OR A MIXED PRECIPITATION REGIME TO THE REGION. STAY TUNED
FOR UPDATED FORECASTS IN THE COMING DAYS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
A BRISK AND SUNNY START TO OUR THANKSGIVING DAY HERE IN THE MID-
SOUTH AS CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH AT THE SURFACE. AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAIN OVER THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO, BENIGN WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITH AT OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING, AIDED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
COME LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, A WEATHER PATTERN SHIFT
WILL OCCUR AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION. AMPLE MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH IN
FROM THE GULF, INCREASING FORECAST PWATS TO AROUND 1.2", NEARING
THE 80TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SHOWERS WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. AHEAD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW SATURDAY MORNING
WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING, MAINLY NORTH OF
I-40. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS WITH A WINTRY MIX.
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BEGIN EARLY ENOUGH WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
BELOW FREEZING, LEADING TO NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND JUST RAIN.
THE NBM HAS AROUND A 30-40% CHANCE FOR A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
MAINLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY BORDER. EITHER WAY,
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL
FLOW AND COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN AND
SETTLE OVER THE REGION, DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
SUNDAY. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, MONDAY MORNING WILL BE A
COLD ONE AS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE LARGELY MONDAY AS TWO
SYSTEMS BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE MID-SOUTH: 1) A
GULF SURFACE LOW AND 2) AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM THE
ROCKIES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE GULF LOW SETS UP, WE COULD SEE
MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN EVENT WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
HOWEVER, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH COULD PINCH THE MOISTURE IN
THIS REGION AND THEREFORE PUSH PRECIPITATION MORE SOUTHEAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AT OR BELOW
FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION LINGERS. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU
LOOK AT, THE TROUGH COULD PUSH PRECIPITATION PAST OUR AREA IN
TIME FOR US TO SEE ONLY RAINFALL AND NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER, SOME ENSEMBLES DO HAVE FREEZING RAIN AND MAYBE EVEN SOME
SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WE ARE A LITTLE
TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, HOWEVER WE WILL STILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT LEADING TO THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION
TYPE LIKELY NOT BEING SNOWFALL. BOTTOM LINE, THIS IS A VERY TRICKY
FORECAST. STAY TUNED...
AEH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 458 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
VFR. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING TO THE EAST OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, VEERING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN AT A MINIMUM THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN LARGELY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. WETTING RAIN
CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...JDS
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