998
FXUS64 KMEG 080328
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1028 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
- BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
A MILD OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH
A STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS DEPICTED ON GOES NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
IMAGERY. RELATIVELY LITTLE FORCING IS NOTED ALOFT, AIDING TO KEEP
OUR AREA IN A DRY, PERSISTENCE FORECAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THEIR PROGRESSION TO THE SOUTH INTO WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
US TO SEE A STEADY CLIMB IN OUR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CLIMB INTO THE 80S BY FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY POTENTIAL BREAK IN THIS DRY SPELL THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WOULD COME ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES NORTHEAST AR INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL. POPS ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE 15-25% RANGE FOR THE LOCATIONS, BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS,
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MOST OF OUR CLIMATE SITES IS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80 DEGREE RANGE, WHICH WE WILL LIKELY BE WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF REACHING IF NOT EXCEEDING ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
THE PERSISTENT, DRY FORECAST LOOKS TO FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES FURTHER EAST
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE WE
WILL LIKELY NOT COMPLETELY BREAK OUT OF THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN
UNTIL MIDWEEK, RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE (20-40%)
MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY SUNRISE AT AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH SUNSET.
INTERMITTENT WIND GUSTS, UP TO 20 KTS, ARE EXPECTED AT JBR/TUP IN
THE AFTERNOON.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, WITH
MINRH VALUES REMAINING IN THE 30-35% RANGE TODAY. MINRH VALUES
LIKELY WILL NOT RETURN TO ABOVE 40% IN THE AFTERNOONS UNTIL NEXT
WEEK, MONDAY AT THE EARLIEST. WHILE 20FT WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD, MARGINAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE
NOTED GIVEN THE ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS AND LINGERING DROUGHT
IMPACTS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...AEH
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