034
FXUS64 KMEG 210241 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
941 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2020
UPDATE
OTHER THAN A FEW MIDLEVEL CLOUDS OVER WEST TN AND NORTHEAST AR,
SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE MIDSOUTH. DESPITE FEWER CLOUDS THAN 24
HOURS AGO, TEMPS THIS EVENING WERE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.
CURRENT OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A QUICK LOOK AT THE
NEWLY-ARRIVED 00Z MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM BETA WILL LIFT INTO THE DELTA PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.
LATEST GRIDS NOW INCLUDE HOURLY PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD, BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT TERM BLENDS.
PWB
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 630 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2020/
UPDATE...
AVIATION UPDATE BELOW
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2020/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
LIGHT EASTERLY WIND. A WEAK CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA,
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH.
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY AS BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER THE AREA. TROPICAL STORM BETA IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE TS BETA AT THIS TIME.
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS BETA AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE
ARKLATEX BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AS A REMNANT LOW MOVING INTO OUR
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, WITH A RATHER SHARP PRECIPITATION
GRADIENT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-40 THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WPC PAINTS AN AREA OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF QPF SOUTH OF I-40,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. NOT A TON OF RAINFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM, BUT PROBABLY ENOUGH TO BRING US OUT OF THE CURRENT D1
DROUGHT OVER NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS A BIT MESSY. BOTH SYNOPTIC MODELS
SUGGEST THAT AN OPEN WAVE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. THIS WOULD KEEP DECENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AC3
AVIATION
00Z TAF
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS ENE
5-10KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE 8-12KTS AND WE COULD GET A FEW
GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND THE 15-20KT RANGE AT END OF TAF CYCLE.
SMW
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
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