998
FXUS64 KMEG 061755
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1255 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR SOUTH OF
TUPELO WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
- COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BEFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME,
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR LOW.
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY
WARMER AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS AND KGWX RADAR SHOWED A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEAST MS, MIDWAY BETWEEN TUPELO AND
ABERDEEN. AT NOON, THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO
SITES WAS 13 DEGREES, AIDED BY PARTIAL SUNSHINE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. SPC MESOANALYSIS SITE SHOWED SURFACE-BASED CAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AREAS ALONG AND ABOUT 15 MILES
NORTH OF THE FRONT REMAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, FLANKED ON THE NORTH BY A NARROW STRIP
OF MARGINAL RISK. 12Z JAN UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PRONOUNCED
EML BASED AT 775MB. THIS EML WAS ALSO EVIDENT ON THE FWD
SOUNDING, BASED AT 825MB.
12Z HREF SOUNDINGS FOR ABERDEEN DEPICT THE EML ERODING THIS
AFTERNOON, WHILE SURFACE TEMPS WARM TO THE LOWER 80S. EFFECTIVE
SRH WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 120 M2/S2, CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL REACH 60-70KT PRIOR TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 5 PM. AS THE EML LIFTS OUT, MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 6 C/KM. THIS WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION, BUT THE OVERALL SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE QUITE MOIST, WITH PWAT OF 1.8 INCHES. AS SUCH THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR
THE FRONT, OR OTHER BOUNDARIES THAT PROVIDE A LOCALIZED AREA OF
BACKED SURFACE FLOW.
BEYOND THIS EVENING, DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY, UNDER RELATIVELY FAST WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN OPEN
NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT, TAPPING INTO MIDLEVEL SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM A SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LOW OVER WEST TX.
NEAR THE SURFACE, GULF MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH
BEHIND A WARM FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON, RETURNING 60S DEWPOINTS
TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NORTH MS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
ROTATES THROUGH. MEAGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN
LOWER THUNDER CHANCES NORTH OF I-40 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW LIFTS OUT, AHEAD OF ANOTHER
NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
00Z LREF-DEPICTED JOINT PROBABILITIES OF 1000 J/KG OF CAPE AND
30KT OF DEEP LAYER BULK WAS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT, AND THAT WAS
CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR
MONDAY. THEREAFTER, FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH BY AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST FROM TX INTO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER TO
THE MIDSOUTH, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRAVERSING THE AIRSPACE AT
THE 18Z ISSUANCE WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE
TUP TERMINAL. JBR AND MKL ARE ON THE WELL COOLED SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD DAMPEN THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 00Z. MEM SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT OF THE OTHER TWO NORTHERN
TERMINALS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. TUP HAS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH PROB30S IN PLACE TO ACCOUNT FOR LOW CONFIDENCE AND SCATTERED
COVERAGE.
ASIDE FROM PRECIPITATION, A BLANKET OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS COVERS
MOST OF THE AIRSPACE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JBR. JBR IS VFR, BUT
HOVERING AROUND 3500FT. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SINKS FURTHER
SOUTH, EXPECT MKL AND MEM TO RETREAT TO VFR WITH TUP REACHING VFR
LAST. ALL SITES SHOULD PREVAIL VFR BY 15Z AT THE LATEST.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MINIMUM RH WILL DROP BELOW 40 PERCENT ON MONDAY, FOLLOWING LIKELY
WETTING RAINFALL ON SUNDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...DNM
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