419
FXUS64 KMEG 242339
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
639 PM CDT WED APR 24 2019
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 343 PM CDT WED APR 24 2019/
MIDAFTERNOON GOES EAST WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOWED A
SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TX. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WAS OCCURRING UNDER STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER EAST
CENTRAL TX, WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING NEAR A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-44 IN MO.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW, TRACKING IT ACROSS TX TONIGHT, INTO
CENTRAL AR TOWARD MIDDAY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHT POSITIVELY-TILTED, WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING NEAR THE
500MB HEIGHT MINIMUM, AND OCCLUDED FRONTAL WAVE NEAR THE LEADING
EDGE OF A MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT OVER EAST CENTRAL MS. MAIN AREA FOR
CONCERN FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF
THIS LOW LEVEL FRONTAL OCCLUSION, AND MAINLY OVER SOUTH MS.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW
INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING, ACROSS CENTRAL MS. ONCE THIS
SHORTWAVE PASSES, THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE MO
BOOT HEEL BECOME CONSOLIDATED INTO A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROF
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF PATTERN BY THIS TIME WILL ALLOW SUNNY AND
FAIR CONDITIONS TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY.
THE PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MESSY BY LATE SATURDAY, IN THE
TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY IS LIKELY TO
BECOME STATIONARY DURING THE TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, BUT
NOT BEFORE PASSING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY EVENING. WHERE
THIS BOUNDARY ENDS UP ON SUNDAY IS A BIT UNCLEAR. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE TIMING OF WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW.
THESE WAVES WILL AFFECT THE POSITION OF THE WEAK STALLED SURFACE
FRONT AND WILL MODULATE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME, THESE SHORTWAVE AT LEAST APPEAR WEAK AND DO APPEAR TO
HOLD ANY HEAVY RAIN OR SEVERE THREAT FOR THE MIDSOUTH.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY, WITH UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT
FALLS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL EJECT FROM THE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
STORM CORRIDOR UNTIL THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS BY WEDNESDAY. THE MID
TO LATE PERIODS OF NEXT WEEK APPEAR TO HOLD THE NEXT APPRECIABLE
CHANCE OF RAIN ONCE TOMORROW'S SYSTEM EXITS.
PWB
AVIATION
00Z TAF SET
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHEAST ARKANSAS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SEVERAL CAM MODELS SHOW A MORE POTENT LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA AROUND 14Z
CONTINUING EASTWARD TO KMKL AND KTUP BY 15-16Z. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER WITH THE LINE. EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 19Z AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. CIGS
MAY REMAIN MVFR AT KJBR AS WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS OCCUR BEHIND THE
SFC LOW. SOME OF THESE LOW CIGS MAY SPREAD INTO MEMPHIS AFTER
00-01Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING, BUT
WILL TURN AROUND TO SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS BY SUNRISE. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KTS.
KRM
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
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