161
FXUS64 KMEG 031754
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1154 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK,
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED HUMIDITY. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY TO THE NORTH
OF I-40 WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, THE DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE MID TO LATE PART OF THE
WORKWEEK.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY, FOCUSED NEAR A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
THE PRIMARY STORY FOR THE FORECAST REMAINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A RECORD HIGH OF 84 IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
MEMPHIS ON FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD BREAK THE OLD RECORD OF 81 SET IN
2022. THE EARLY SEASON HEAT WILL ARRIVE COURTESY OF AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RIDGE (586 DAM AT 500MB)
CENTERED OVER FL. THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN UNDER DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE.
A THUNDERSTORM CORRIDOR WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDWEEK, AHEAD
OF AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS TROUGH PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN A MINOR
DEPRESSION IN MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
OVER THE MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
NORTH OF I-40. THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY NEAR THE
EXIT REGION OF A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS A SURFACE FRONT
NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY, WHILE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PREVAILS AT 20KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE
MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY, AS ANOTHER SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS DEPICTS AN OPEN NORTHERN
BRANCH WAVE FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH
PASSAGE. RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY'S GUIDANCE, THE NET EFFECT WILL BE
LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY, AND A
MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS SUCH, PWAT AND
FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND.
AS WE ENTER NEXT WEEK, THE PWATS BEGIN TO EDGE BACK UP TO
1.5 INCHES, AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE ACTIVE IF A CLOSED LOW
NEAR BAJA CONSOLIDATES INTO A PROGRESSIVE PHASED TROUGH AS SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AIRSPACE AS OF 18Z.
ALONG THIS FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT LARGER SCALE SYSTEM, GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE INTERMITTENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW. IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE'S A
QUICKLY DISSIPATING MVFR DECK OF LOW STRATUS THAT SHOULD SCATTER
OUT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE ALL SITES RETURNING TO VFR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH ANOTHER MVFR STRATUS DECK SURGING UP
ALONG S/SW WINDS AND SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
MID-SPRING LIKE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MID-
SOUTH THIS WEEK, WHILE 20 FOOT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH AREAS NORTH OF I-40 MOST
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WETTING RAINFALL.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...CAD
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