822
FXUS64 KMEG 101726
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1226 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
- A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN PLACE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY WARMER CONDITIONS EMERGE EACH DAY THIS
WEEK WITH A GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
A BEAUTIFUL MOTHER'S DAY IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY SPANNING THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 80S. TO OUR WEST, A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS THAT WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
OUR AREA OUT AHEAD. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. WE ARE CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
IN THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) ACROSS EASTERN AR, NORTH MS, AND
FAR SOUTHWEST TN. THE 12Z CAMS HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK-OFF ON THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, WITH LAPSE RATES REMAINING FAIRLY
LACKLUSTER. MLCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 1,000 J/KG FOR
SOME BY THE AFTERNOON, GIVING WAY TO AT LEAST A SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS. IF STORMS WERE ABLE TO TAP INTO THIS
POTENTIAL, A FEW SUMMERTIME-ESQUE, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN, WITH SOME
SMALL HAIL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BY MONDAY
MORNING.
BY MONDAY THROUGH GENERALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, UPPER-
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BUILD IN AND WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S MONDAY
AND GENERALLY FLUCTUATING BETWEEN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
ALONG A SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE POPS REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE AND WE
DOUBT ANY OF THE MOISTURE WOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE. THE
ONE BENEFIT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THAT IT WILL TEMPORARILY
KNOCK OUR TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S BY THURSDAY. DESPITE THIS BRIEF RESPITE, GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING A STARK WARM-UP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AIRSPACE AHEAD OF SOME
TSRA/SHRA THAT WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IMPACTS
TO TERMINALS REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION AND TIMING. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S FOR THE MOST LIKELY
TIMES CURRENTLY FOR ALL FOUR TAF SITES. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH CONDITIONS CLEARING
AREAWIDE BY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, FINALLY SETTLING TO NORTHEASTERLY
BY 12Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH MINRH
VALUES FALLING BELOW 40% EACH DAY. WHILE SOME BORDERLINE FIRE
DANGER CONCERNS COULD ARISE IF MINRH VALUES DIP LOWER, WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH EACH DAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CMA
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