857  
FXUS64 KMEG 280533  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1133 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1009 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021/  
 
SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH  
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 70S. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH AT  
THIS TIME. MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE  
OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF THE MID-SOUTH HAVE SEEN VISIBILITIES DROP  
TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS IN DENSE FOG. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY  
UNTIL 8 AM CST FOR THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO  
INCREASE OVERNIGHT SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE  
CANCELLED EARLY IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE.  
 
ARS  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT THIS WEEKEND IS HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT IS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO TENNESSEE  
PROVIDING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF I-40. PRECIPITABLE WATER  
VALUES CURRENTLY ARE NEARING 1.4 INCHES. ALL OF THE MID-SOUTH ARE  
IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE OR HIGHER WITH PWATS.  
 
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN  
TONIGHT WITH MANY POSITIONING IT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LATER  
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL TREND NORTHWARD,  
AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MID- SOUTH AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL  
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND MOVE SOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FAR AS  
TEMPERATURES EXPECT TOMORROWS HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.  
 
OVERALL, 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. LOCALLY  
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH SOME  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WITH DECENT  
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND CAPE 500-1000 J/KG, A COUPLE STRONG  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WHILE A SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED  
OUT. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT TRAINING STORMS  
SEEMS TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE MID- SOUTH  
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. AGAIN, THUNDERSTORMS MAY  
PRODUCE SOME FLASH FLOODING, BUT AREAS WITH ALREADY SATURATED  
SOILS, AND AGGRAVATED RIVERS WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED THE MOST.  
ALL THIS RAIN WILL END EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES WELL  
SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO MID WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR  
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER  
40S.  
 
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MODELS HAVEN'T CHANGED CHANGED MUCH OVERALL,  
AND REMAINS VERY MUCH IN DISAGREEMENT, ESPECIALLY BY MID-WEEK.  
ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT  
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE OTHER ENSEMBLES HAVE THE AREA BASICALLY  
DRY. BY LATE WEEK WE HAVE THE SAME SITUATION WHERE SOME ENSEMBLE  
MODELS HAVE ANOTHER POTENT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH AND OTHER MODELS  
SHOW LITTLE TO KNOW PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT EXPECT A CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT  
CHANCE AFTER MID-WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  
 
SGW  
   
AVIATION
 
06Z TAFS  
 
WE ARE SEEING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH  
TONIGHT, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL  
JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FG/BR OVER THE AREA SHOULD  
ALSO DISSIPATE AS THE STRONGER WINDS MIX THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.  
STEADIER, HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WIND AND LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN.  
CIGS WILL BE VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS BUT PREVAILING  
MVFR TO IFR LEVELS ARE EXPECTED. LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED LATER  
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING  
ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24-30 HOUR TAF CYCLE.  
 
30  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM CST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR  
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.  
 
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-  
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-  
POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.  
 
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-  
MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT.  
 
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.  
 
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.  
 
MS...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM CST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR  
ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-  
PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION.  
 
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-  
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-  
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-  
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.  
 
FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR  
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-  
TALLAHATCHIE-YALOBUSHA.  
 
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM CST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR  
BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-  
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.  
 
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-  
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-  
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-  
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.  
 
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-  
HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-WEAKLEY.  
 

 
 

 
 
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