555
FXUS64 KMEG 071739
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1239 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
- ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS AHEAD FOR THE MIDSOUTH. TONIGHT'S LOWS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. A FEW AREAS
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, FRIDAY'S HIGHS WILL WARM TO THE MID 70S,
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ENTER FAR NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO SPREAD
INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI ALONG A WARM FRONT EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
- WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING THE GREATEST CHANCES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
APPEAR LOW FOR SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY WILL BRING RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER TO THE
MIDSOUTH, WITH SUNDAY PROVIDING GREATEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL FOR THE WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT,
BUT NOT SUFFICIENTLY SO TO BRING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO AREAS
EAST OF MEMPHIS. WITH CALM WINDS, AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 40S.
ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
BI-MODEL RAIN CHANCES TO THE MIDSOUTH. A NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS NORTH OF A
JONESBORO TO JACKSON LINE DURING THE EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH,
TROPICAL MARITIME AIR WILL SPREAD INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AHEAD OF
A SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS. SCATTERED EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY PERIOD, AREAS ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY DRY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SUNDAY WILL BRING THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
AREAWIDE RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AIDED BY AFTERNOON HEATING. MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY
EVENING AFTER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY HAS WANED. LREF JOINT
PROBABILITIES OF 30KT OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR AND 750J/KG OF
CAPE REMAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT AND CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF
I-40 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DECREASES TO AROUND ZERO PERCENT
AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING. WITH PWAT OF 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES, QPF
WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING A BRIEF COOLDOWN MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY GLANCE THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH MINIMAL POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINFALL OR COOLER
TEMPERATURES. OVER THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, AS AN UPPER RIDGE LIFTS FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
PICKING BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH MID FRIDAY MORNING ABOVE THRESHOLD
AT MEM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 40 PERCENT ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWING LIKELY WETTING RAINFALL ON SUNDAY. WARM
AND PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...CAD
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