637
FXUS64 KMEG 062348 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
548 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY
SATURDAY, FOCUSED NEAR A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT
WEEK. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
AN AREA OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
TODAY, WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING CLEARING OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE. DUE TO THE PROLONGED CLOUD
COVER, TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER, GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
RECORD-BREAKING HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY FORM OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND SUB-SEVERE.
THE GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EMERGES LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE MID-
SOUTH. THE LATEST CAMS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND PUSHING
EASTWARD BY SUNRISE. AHEAD OF THIS LINE, THE SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETER SPACE WILL FEATURE MORE THAN 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE, BULK
SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS, AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6 C/KM. WHILE
NOT AN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SETUP, THESE INGREDIENTS PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO ENCOURAGE UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS. IN
ADDITION, A MODEST WIND PROFILE AND SRH ABOVE 200 M2/S2 WILL
ENCOURAGE TORNADIC CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LINE. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH A SECONDARY THREAT
OF SPIN-UP TORNADOES. BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE
TOMORROW.
IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER, FLOODING CONCERNS ARE ON THE RISE
FOR SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL SURGE TO THE 99TH
PERCENTILE BY SUNRISE. IN ADDITION, LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
TRAINING STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI, PARTICULARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA, WHERE UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS
ANTICIPATED, ALONG WITH CREEKS RISING TO BANKFULL. CONDITIONS
WILL FINALLY DRY OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON, LEAVING BEHIND HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
NEXT WEEK'S FORECAST WILL CENTER AROUND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. PREVIOUS FORECAST SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTED A HIGHER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE TUESDAY /
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES. HOWEVER, BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW FAVORING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW
WITH THE CENTER MOVING OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE MID-SOUTH. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT OVERALL THE
POTENTIAL IS ON THE DECLINE. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
THE END OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.
ANS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS TIMING OF TSRA ON SATURDAY. RELATIVE TO
THE 12Z CAM CONSENSUS, THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE
ARRIVAL TIMING OF A BKN/SLD LINE OF TSRA. THE 00Z TAFS TIMING ARE
A BLEND OF THE SLOWER HRRR GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS TAFS,
MAINTAINING A THREE HOUR WINDOW OF WIND GUST AND VIS IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE PASSAGE. THIS WINDOW MAY BE NARROWED
PENDING 00Z CAM GUIDANCE. IN ANY CASE, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
TRAILING TS IN BEHIND THE LINE ON SATURDAY, BUT THIS SHOULD BE
LESS IMPACTFUL THAN THE PRIMARY LINE OF TSRA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
DAILY WETTING RAIN CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY,
LIMITING THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION,
MINRH WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40%.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB
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