247
FXUS64 KMEG 100442
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1142 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
- WARM AND HUMID SUMMER DAYS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- HEAT ADVISORIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH ARE ANTICIPATED
EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK AS HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105
TO 109 ARE EXPECTED.
- WITH A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN PERSISTING, ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE DIED OUT IN THE
GROWING SURFACE INVERSION POST SUNSET. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE MEANTIME WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REACHING
594+ DM THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO CLIMB WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. THEREFORE, HEAT INDICES WILL START TO CLIMB
ABOVE 105 F, MOST PROMINENTLY IN PORTIONS OF FAR WEST TN,
NORTHWEST MS, THE MO BOOTHEEL, AND EASTERN AR WHERE A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE HEAT ADVISORY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SEE DANGEROUS HEAT WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE (20% - 30% CHANCE) AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN MLCAPE RISES
ABOVE 2500 J/KG. STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AS WELL AS PROVIDING RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE WITH
TIME, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S WITH HIGH HUMIDITY. SO, EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN THE
TRIPLE DIGITS EACH AFTERNOON WITH AREAS CLOSER TO, AND WEST OF,
THE MS RIVER MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE 105+ F. THEREFORE,
ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS
WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF CAMS BEYOND 24 HOURS,
WHICH CURRENTLY SHOW ISOLATED TO NO CONVECTION TUESDAY. WITH THIS
IN MIND, WILL WAIT TO ISSUE ANY MORE HEAT HEADLINES UNTIL FUTURE
DATES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED WITH RESPECT TO AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.
WHILE PAST FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED THAT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW MAY REACH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES NOW PAINT A
DIFFERENT PICTURE. ZONAL FLOW, WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WITH TIME, THE NEW GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THIS FLOW
BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHIFT EAST
NOW PLACES THE MID-SOUTH SQUARELY UNDER A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
AND WOULD IMPLY THAT TEMPERATURES MAY INCREASE FURTHER THAN WHAT
WE ARE SEEING TO START THIS WEEK. LREF PROBABILITIES OF HEAT
INDICES OF 105 F OR GREATER ALREADY APPROACH 50% OR HIGHER NEXT
WEEKEND SUPPORT THIS NEW FORECAST TREND. ANOTHER CONSEQUENCE OF
STRONGER RIDGING WOULD BE A DRIER FORECAST WITH POPS STRUGGLING
TO GET ABOVE 10% AREAWIDE STARTING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. IN
SUMMARY, A HOT, SUMMER-LIKE FORECAST IS IN THE WORKS FOR THIS
WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
RELIEF.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
JBR/MEM/MKL WITH S/SW WINDS. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
HAVE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON TSRA POTENTIALLY APPROACHING MEM/MKL,
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE NEWER TREND AND LOW CONFIDENCE, OPTED TO LEAVE
OUT ANY PROB30 OR VCTS MENTION WITH THIS TAF CYCLE.
FOR TUP, PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE REGION WITH AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL NEAR SUNRISE. IF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS,
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. THE
PROBABILITY OF TSRA HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON, SO
HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 MENTION FROM 19Z TO 23Z. S/SW WINDS,
GENERALLY UP TO AROUND 5 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CONTINUE TO STAY ABOVE 40%
ACROSS THE REGION ALONGSIDE LIGHT 20 FT WINDS. LIMITED RAINFALL
CHANCES FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ001-007-008-
010>012-020.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TNZ001>003-019-
020-048>051-088-089.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CMA
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