979
FXUS64 KMEG 261135
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
635 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 427 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
WARM, BREEZY AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY, BEHIND A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
EASTERN ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT LIFT
THROUGH THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD, TWO CONSTITUENT CLOSED
LOWS WILL LIFT FROM THE 4-CORNERS REGION TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
OVER THE MIDSOUTH, LITTLE CHANGE IN UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS IS
EXPECTED, AS A 584DAM 500MB RIDGE HOLDS STRONG, CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. DEEP LAYER SHEER AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO EASTERN AR, THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN.
A PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL HAVE GREATER SUCCESS
IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT/CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY
MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME, IT APPEARS THAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY (EFFECTIVE CAPE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG) WILL LIMIT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. A NARROW PLUME OF PREFRONTAL MOISTURE (PWAT NEAR 1.8
INCHES) WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BUT THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE FRONT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK,
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DEPICT SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE ZONAL FLOW
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A NORTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE, HEIGHT FALLS
AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH MUCH OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. IF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY THURSDAY.
PWB
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 28 KTS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH TODAY AHEAD OF POTENTIAL RAIN IMPACTS THIS EVENING. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDER HAS DECREASED GREATLY, WITH THE 06Z CAMS
STRUGGLING TO BRING CONVECTION INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THEREFORE,
REMOVED TS FROM MEM TAF. IN ADDITION, A LLJ WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT, PRODUCING LLWS CONCERNS AT MEM, MKL, AND JBR.
OTHERWISE, VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL.
ANS
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...ANS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page