537
FXUS64 KMEG 171655
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1155 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS.
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER RISK ON TUESDAY,
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS PRIMARY CONCERNS, THOUGH
OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST DAILY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WARM AND MODESTLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE UNDERWAY AS OF 11 AM AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE COMING HOURS.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHERLY ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD. THE
NEAR SURFACE LAYER STILL REMAINS VASTLY DRY, SO IF ANY
PRECIPITATION DOES SQUEEZE FROM THE CU FIELD, SPRINKLES WILL BE
THE LIKELY FORM, AND MAINLY CONCENTRATED TO THE MS DELTA REGION.
NONETHELESS, MOSTLY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS
HIGHS WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 DEGREES. THE SAME
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST REGION UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING, SO
EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ON MONDAY WITH LOW (GENERALLY
LESS THAN 30%) POPS THROUGHOUT MONDAY. MONDAY EVENING, THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN ITS SOUTHEAST TREK AND
INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THERE IS ALREADY SLIGHT AND MARGINAL (LEVELS 2/5 AND 1/5
RESPECTIVELY) RISKS FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES, OR SLIGHTLY OVER, WITH DEWPOINTS
ANTICIPATED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 DEGREES. THIS WILL SURGE
INSTABILITY VALUES WITH 0-3KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 8C/KM AND SBCAPE
EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG. THE LIMITING FACTOR, DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SETUP, IS A LACKING SHEAR PROFILE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS
~20KTS, WHICH FAVORS MOSTLY SINGLE CELLS AND PERHAPS CLUSTERS OF
MULTI-CELLS AS STORM MODE. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY PROFILE, DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS IF A STORM DOES
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR DOES LOOK TO INCREASE AS
THE NOCTURNAL LLJ GETS ESTABLISHED, WITH MODELS SHOWING STEEPENING
HEIGHT FALLS. WHILE SHEAR DOES INCREASE AT NIGHT, THE SURFACE
WILL BEGIN TO COOL SLIGHTLY, LOWERING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
AND INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF EML DEVELOPMENT. THE WINDOW OF
SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE VERY LIMITED, IF ANY, IF SHEAR DOES NOT
TREND UPWARDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING
RUNS OUT. THIS IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THIS TIME.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN ANTICIPATED STALL OF THE BOUNDARY
APPEARS LIKELY. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON ALSO AS
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.75", WHICH IS BETWEEN THE 90TH-
95TH PERCENTILES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHILE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL WELCOME THIS RAINFALL, THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO
THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TRAINING STORMS. THE SHEAR
PROFILE DOES LOOK MORE DEFINED IN ITS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
MOTION, SO STATIONARY DOWNPOURS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN. WE
WILL BE MONITORING THIS FOR A DEVELOPING FLOOD CONCERN AS THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POTENTIALLY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE A CONCERN AFTER TUESDAY AS THE RAIN WILL KEEP INSTABILITY
AT BAY.
DNM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT-TERM MODELS
INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER TOWARDS EARLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTS OCCURRING
DURING PEAK HEATING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WETTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CJC
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