437
FXUS64 KMEG 311123
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
623 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 623 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (30 PERCENT) FOR PATCHY FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S.
- RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURES AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED
OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS PLACES A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR THE LOUISIANA GULF
COAST. THIS IS RESULTING CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM WINDS,
AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LATE EVENING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THESE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS NORMALLY ARE EXCELLENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED HIGH INTO THE EVENING DUE TO YESTERDAY'S
RAINFALL. THUS, CONFIDENCE HAS REMAINED LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
FROST HEADLINES OVERNIGHT. IF ANY PATCHY FROST DOES OCCUR IT WOULD
BE PREDOMINANTLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST, THEN MOVING SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINING TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MID-SOUTH ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AXIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING
BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS (NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER) WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
VFR CIGS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTHEAST MS TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TUP TAF.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DAILY MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AVERAGE AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT 20 FT WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...ANS
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