838  
FXUS64 KMEG 230313  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
913 PM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
   
..NEW UPDATE
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 902 PM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH SUB-SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS  
MOVED THROUGH JACKSON, TN AND MEMPHIS AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED  
JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE SHOULD EXIT  
THE MIDSOUTH BY ABOUT 3 AM. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH ARE  
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH PEA SIZED HAIL. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT  
IS PACIFIC IN NATURE, SO NO SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO  
MIDDLE 60S TOMORROW WITH 50S ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD  
WARM INTO THE 70S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH  
THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY TIME OF  
IMPACT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH IS BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT. A  
SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY WILL BE ON TAP TOMORROW, WITH A GRADUAL  
WARMING TREND STARTING ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS  
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND MID NEXT WEEK, BRINGING  
WITH IT A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
CURRENTLY, A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING  
FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. WITH TIME, THE  
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE FURTHER RESULTING IN AN  
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.  
PREFRONTAL MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN  
500-1000 J/KG. SPC MESOANALYSIS FIELDS DEPICT SOMEWHAT VARIABLE  
FUTURE EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES, RANGING FROM 25 TO 40 KNOTS,  
WHICH WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE THE LONGEVITY AND INTENSITY OF  
INDIVIDUAL STORMS. EVEN SO, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST IN THE STRONGEST CORES. IT APPEARS  
THAT THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE 6PM TO  
MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN  
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL  
WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT  
WEEK. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION, THIS  
SYSTEM WILL INDUCE MUCH STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS AND GREATER WARM  
AIR ADVECTION, RESULTING IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF A COLD  
FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE  
WEATHER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND PROVIDE UPDATES AS  
THINGS EVOLVE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
TIMING OF TSRA ACROSS ALL TERMINALS LOOKS TO HAVE SLOWED SLIGHTLY  
AND HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE LATEST TAF ISSUANCE. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY LOOKS TO LEAVE THE AIRSPACE BY 07Z AS THE  
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXISTS THE MID-SOUTH. AROUND THIS SAME  
TIMEFRAME, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR AND QUICKLY CLEAR  
OUT BY SUNRISE. WINDS LOOK TO GUST UP TO 22 KTS FROM THE NORTH  
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A SECONDARY  
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  
 
AEH  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS  
AVIATION...AEH  
 
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