342
FXUS64 KTSA 282043
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
243 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022
PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE WINDS TONIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SET UP OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. LATEST DATA CONTINUES
TOP SUPPORT GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE IN A CORRIDOR FROM
EAST CENTRAL OK INTO NORTHWEST AR LATER THIS EVENING INTO MUCH OF
TUESDAY MORNING. LIKELY TO SEE 40-45 GUSTS AT RIDGETOP LEVELS OF
SE OK AND NW AR AT THE VERY LEAST AND WILL BE FLIRTING WITH WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA N OF US 412 AND E OF US 75
BASED ON FORECAST POSITION OF LOW LEVEL JET. PER COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR
NOW, BUT ONE COULD BE NEEDED FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE
NORTH AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN MUCH MILDER TEMPS OVERNIGHT. STRONG
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK TOWARD SUNRISE.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH DATA CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR EASTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. IF ANYTHING
THUNDER PROBABILITES IN OUR AREA APPEAR LOWER FOR TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT FASTER WITH THE FRONT AS WELL, AND
PATTERN OF PRE-FRONTAL VEERING/WEAKENING OF SFC WINDS NOT
ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATUES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT WILL TURN
SHARPLY COLDER WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE COLD AIRMASS WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW GUSTS NEAR
40 OCCURRED FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER WAVE
BRUSHES BY THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING, A FEW FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP
NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS NOTABLY
LIGHTER DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER HOWEVER.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A QUICK WARMUP TAKING PLACE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS RETURNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
FASTER WITH A FRONT LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EVOLUTION OF THE
FORECAST AFTER THAT REMAINS CHALLENGING AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEARBY AND AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES. PRECIP CHANCES
ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AND AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO
BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA, WILL ALSO MENTION LLWS
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT THE
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 52 69 27 46 / 0 0 10 0
FSM 48 73 33 50 / 10 20 0 0
MLC 51 71 29 47 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 48 66 25 45 / 0 0 10 0
FYV 47 70 26 45 / 0 10 10 0
BYV 47 69 26 43 / 0 0 10 0
MKO 50 70 27 45 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 47 66 24 42 / 0 0 0 0
F10 51 71 28 46 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 49 72 33 49 / 10 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05
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