504  
FXUS64 KTSA 241139  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
639 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2018  
   
AVIATION
 
 
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.  
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING, EXCEPT POSSIBLY AT  
KBVO, WHERE VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL. PATCHY  
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, MAINLY AT THE NORTHWEST  
ARKANSAS SITES. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING, WITH CEILINGS RISING TO VFR AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA  
SITES. MVFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN PREVALENT AT KMLC  
AND THE NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 412 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS  
THE REGION TODAY, WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS  
HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME FOG AND  
DRIZZLE NOTED ACROSS NORTH TX AND LIKELY INTO SOUTHEAST OK. ZONE  
OF ENHANCED LIFT EXTENDING FROM EAST TX THROUGH CENTRAL AR HAS  
PRODUCED MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER, AND  
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AR. FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE STUBBORN TO ERODE AND  
HIGH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS MAY STRUGGLE, BUT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER  
THAN SUNDAY.  
 
CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY BEING TO BREAK OUT ON TUESDAY AS UPPER  
TROUGH AXIS WITHIN MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES MOVES ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH VEERING AND MODESTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL  
FLOW. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD  
FRONT WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH MORE SUN, POSSIBLY NEAR 90 IN SOME  
AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OK  
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP  
ALONG IT, THOUGH BETTER COVERAGE LIKELY REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST  
CLOSER TO THE UPPER SUPPORT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES  
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH,  
WITH GREATER CHANCES BECOMING FOCUSED MORE TO THE SOUTH BY  
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER BEHIND THEE  
FRONT WEDNESDAY. SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY ROTATE AROUND  
BASE OF TROUGH AND KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
AFTER A NICE COOL EARLY FALL NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO  
WARM BACK UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOW FULL  
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. DRY FORECAST WILL BE  
MAINTAINED UNTIL SUNDAY, BY WHICH TIME MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE  
SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS AS DEEPER MOISTURE  
MAY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AROUND WESTERN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE.  
OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS  
SUMMER IS JUST NOT QUITE READY TO LET GO DOWN HERE.  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
AVIATION.....05  
 
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