974
FXUS64 KTSA 311125
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
625 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- PATCHY FROST THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A FROST
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT
PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW.
- A STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT SATURDAY TO BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES,
AS WELL AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL
FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MORNING,
MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS UNDERNEATH CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS A WIDE AREA OF
EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR EARLY THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY DIP
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW, FROM 3
AM TO 9 AM.
AFTER A VERY CHILLY START TO THE DAY, A STRONG MORNING INVERSION
WILL BEGIN TO MIX-OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY, HELPING WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES (A FEW DEGREE
BELOW AVERAGE) BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAYTIME. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. BUT
OVERALL, TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
MAINLY LOW-IMPACT WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A MUCH MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN (MOSTLY) HIGH CLOUDS,
IT SHOULD BE A COOL BUT PLEASANT NIGHT FOR TRICK-OR-TREATING WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED. A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SWIFTLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY. AT
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT CONSENSUS IN DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA BY EARLY-MID
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S AS THICK CLOUD COVER AND MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
INFILTRATE THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AHEAD
OF/ALONG THE FRONT AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THIS
FRONT, WITH VERY LITTLE (IF ANY) IMPACTS. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS
WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM SATURDAY EVENING INTO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT,
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WHAT GUIDANCE HAS. IF THE FORECAST
VERIFIES, A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST OK AND FAR NORTHWEST AR. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAT WIDESPREAD FROST WILL DEVELOP AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL,
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AND
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR AVERAGE BY MONDAY AND ABOVE AVERAGE
BY TUESDAY. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BY MIDWEEK AND THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS REACHING THE MID-UPPER 70S. RAIN
CHANCES LOOK UNLIKELY SUNDAY-THURSDAY.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ONE
EXCEPTION IS SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING NEAR NW AR SITES AND
THOSE TERMINALS COULD BRIEFLY SEE REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUD WILL FILL OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
BRINGING A SWITCH TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND CIGS LOWERING INTO
THE LOW VFR RANGE. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE AFTER THIS
TAF PERIOD AND LEFT OUT MENTION OF PRECIP FOR NOW.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 66 44 59 34 / 0 20 20 0
FSM 67 46 63 37 / 0 10 20 0
MLC 69 44 63 34 / 0 10 20 0
BVO 66 40 57 29 / 0 20 0 0
FYV 64 39 58 29 / 0 10 30 0
BYV 64 42 56 33 / 0 10 30 0
MKO 66 45 60 33 / 0 10 20 0
MIO 64 42 56 32 / 0 20 10 0
F10 67 43 61 32 / 0 10 20 0
HHW 68 47 65 37 / 0 10 20 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ054>076.
AR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...04
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