032
FXUS64 KTSA 151108
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
608 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2022
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2022
HEAT WILL INTENSIFY TODAY W/ AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUE REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE FAVORED TERRAIN
AREAS OF SE OK THROUGH NW AR. COVERAGE MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ALONG THE NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WILL EXTEND ACROSS
FAR NW AR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2022
CONVECTION WILL EXPAND ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL ZONE TONIGHT AND PRIMARILY REMAINING NORTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS WILL EXTEND INTO
FAR NE OK AND FAR NW AR. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE WHICH WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SFC LOW
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NE OK BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE WARM
FRONT AND HIGHER MOISTURE CORRIDOR EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NW AR. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW AS THE
SFC PATTERN TAKES SHAPE AND TEMPS WILL SOAR AREAWIDE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO MIX NOTABLY LOWER AWAY FROM THE DEFINED SFC
BOUNDARIES WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HEAT INDEX VALUES, HOWEVER ANOTHER
HEAT ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL REGION.
STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE
SFC LOW AND EVENTUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON /
EARLY EVENING BOTH ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AND THE
PRECEDING WARM FRONT THROUGH WESTERN AR. SUFFICIENT SHEAR /
INSTABILITY PROFILES SUGGEST ORGANIZED AND SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS ARE
POSSIBLE AND DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER SUPPORT LOCALIZED INTENSE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. COVERAGE IS LIKELY
BE HIGHEST INITIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW AND BECOMING MORE
LIMITED WITH WESTERN EXTENT AND CONFINED TO THE COLD FRONT.
EVENING STORMS WILL WANE WITH AN UPTICK IN PRECIP COVERAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WITH THIS CONVECTION
SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RENEWED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
SE OK BEFORE STORM CHANCES WANE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.
NOTABLY COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. THE PATTERN
EVOLUTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS MORE UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THE RIDING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW PERIODIC
RAIN CHANCES AND NO EXTREMELY HOT TEMPS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2022
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL STIES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK AND NW AR, WITH VERY LOW PROBABILITY
OF IMPACTS AT KMLC AND NW AR SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 79 105 72 84 / 10 20 40 30
FSM 76 103 75 87 / 10 10 30 50
MLC 76 103 73 88 / 0 10 10 30
BVO 76 104 68 82 / 10 30 40 20
FYV 72 98 69 80 / 10 30 50 50
BYV 71 97 67 77 / 30 50 70 60
MKO 74 101 70 82 / 10 10 30 30
MIO 74 101 67 80 / 20 50 60 40
F10 76 104 71 85 / 0 10 20 20
HHW 76 101 76 93 / 0 0 10 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ054>057-059>062-064>067-070>076.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ARZ019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14
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