157  
FXUS64 KTSA 152312  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
612 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE DISCUSSION REGARDING THE 00Z TAF FORECAST IS BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.  
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONE EXCEPTION.  
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT MVFR FOG AT KFYV TOWARD DAWN  
MONDAY.  
 
LACY  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 314 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVERHEAD WITH AREA 12Z RAOB DATA  
SAMPLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS NEAR SEASONAL EXTREMES. THE RESULT  
BEING TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH ANY DEEPER AFTERNOON  
CONVECTION CLOSELY TIED TO FAVORED TERRAIN LOCATIONS. THIS  
PATTERN LOOKS TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK AND PREVAILING  
MOIST DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO AID IN HOLDING OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS AT  
EVEN LARGER DEPARTURES FROM SEASONAL NORMALS.  
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAKE VERY  
SLOW WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD PROGRESS AROUND PERIPHERY OF  
UPPER RIDGE. THIS FEATURE COULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD DEEPER MOISTURE  
INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK WHILE ALSO ACTING TO SUPPORT AN  
UPTICK IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF DATA  
REMAIN PESSIMISTIC ON ANY MEANINGFUL FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH THE  
FORECAST PERIOD AND LIKELY BEYOND W/ ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY TO  
CONTINUE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 71 94 71 94 / 0 0 0 0  
FSM 71 96 71 96 / 0 0 0 0  
MLC 71 96 71 96 / 10 0 0 0  
BVO 69 93 69 92 / 0 0 0 0  
FYV 68 91 68 90 / 0 0 0 0  
BYV 68 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 0  
MKO 70 93 71 93 / 0 0 0 0  
MIO 69 92 69 92 / 0 0 0 0  
F10 70 94 70 94 / 0 0 0 0  
HHW 71 97 71 96 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
AVIATION.....30  
 
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