032  
FXUS64 KTSA 151108  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
608 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2022  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY)  
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2022  
 
HEAT WILL INTENSIFY TODAY W/ AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUE REACHING  
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR.  
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE FAVORED TERRAIN  
AREAS OF SE OK THROUGH NW AR. COVERAGE MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER  
ALONG THE NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WILL EXTEND ACROSS  
FAR NW AR BY LATE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2022  
 
CONVECTION WILL EXPAND ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED  
FRONTAL ZONE TONIGHT AND PRIMARILY REMAINING NORTH AND EAST OF  
THE FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS WILL EXTEND INTO  
FAR NE OK AND FAR NW AR. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF AN  
APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE WHICH WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SFC LOW  
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NE OK BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE WARM  
FRONT AND HIGHER MOISTURE CORRIDOR EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH  
NW AR. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW AS THE  
SFC PATTERN TAKES SHAPE AND TEMPS WILL SOAR AREAWIDE. LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO MIX NOTABLY LOWER AWAY FROM THE DEFINED SFC  
BOUNDARIES WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HEAT INDEX VALUES, HOWEVER ANOTHER  
HEAT ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL REGION.  
 
STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE  
SFC LOW AND EVENTUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON /  
EARLY EVENING BOTH ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AND THE  
PRECEDING WARM FRONT THROUGH WESTERN AR. SUFFICIENT SHEAR /  
INSTABILITY PROFILES SUGGEST ORGANIZED AND SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS ARE  
POSSIBLE AND DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER SUPPORT LOCALIZED INTENSE  
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. COVERAGE IS LIKELY  
BE HIGHEST INITIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW AND BECOMING MORE  
LIMITED WITH WESTERN EXTENT AND CONFINED TO THE COLD FRONT.  
EVENING STORMS WILL WANE WITH AN UPTICK IN PRECIP COVERAGE TUESDAY  
NIGHT ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WITH THIS CONVECTION  
SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RENEWED AFTERNOON  
CONVECTION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS  
SE OK BEFORE STORM CHANCES WANE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO  
THE REGION.  
 
NOTABLY COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY  
WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. THE PATTERN  
EVOLUTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS MORE UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER IT DOES NOT  
APPEAR THE RIDING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW PERIODIC  
RAIN CHANCES AND NO EXTREMELY HOT TEMPS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2022  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL STIES THROUGH THE FORECAST  
PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR  
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK AND NW AR, WITH VERY LOW PROBABILITY  
OF IMPACTS AT KMLC AND NW AR SITES.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 79 105 72 84 / 10 20 40 30  
FSM 76 103 75 87 / 10 10 30 50  
MLC 76 103 73 88 / 0 10 10 30  
BVO 76 104 68 82 / 10 30 40 20  
FYV 72 98 69 80 / 10 30 50 50  
BYV 71 97 67 77 / 30 50 70 60  
MKO 74 101 70 82 / 10 10 30 30  
MIO 74 101 67 80 / 20 50 60 40  
F10 76 104 71 85 / 0 10 20 20  
HHW 76 101 76 93 / 0 0 10 30  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR  
OKZ054>057-059>062-064>067-070>076.  
 
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR  
ARZ019-020-029.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...07  
LONG TERM....07  
AVIATION...14  
 
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