157
FXUS64 KTSA 152312
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2019
DISCUSSION
THE DISCUSSION REGARDING THE 00Z TAF FORECAST IS BELOW.
AVIATION
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONE EXCEPTION.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT MVFR FOG AT KFYV TOWARD DAWN
MONDAY.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 314 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2019/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVERHEAD WITH AREA 12Z RAOB DATA
SAMPLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS NEAR SEASONAL EXTREMES. THE RESULT
BEING TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH ANY DEEPER AFTERNOON
CONVECTION CLOSELY TIED TO FAVORED TERRAIN LOCATIONS. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK AND PREVAILING
MOIST DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO AID IN HOLDING OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS AT
EVEN LARGER DEPARTURES FROM SEASONAL NORMALS.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAKE VERY
SLOW WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD PROGRESS AROUND PERIPHERY OF
UPPER RIDGE. THIS FEATURE COULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD DEEPER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK WHILE ALSO ACTING TO SUPPORT AN
UPTICK IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF DATA
REMAIN PESSIMISTIC ON ANY MEANINGFUL FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND LIKELY BEYOND W/ ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 71 94 71 94 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 71 96 71 96 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 71 96 71 96 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 69 93 69 92 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 68 91 68 90 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 68 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 70 93 71 93 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 69 92 69 92 / 0 0 0 0
F10 70 94 70 94 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 71 97 71 96 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
AVIATION.....30
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