051  
FXUS64 KTSA 211637  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
1137 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021  
   
AVIATION
 
 
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ANY INCREASING MID CLOUD LATE IN  
THE PERIOD NOT EXPECTED TO YIELD ANY AVIATION IMPACTS.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1038 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021/  
   
.UPDATE
 
 
DISCUSSION...  
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA  
TODAY YIELDING QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND  
THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT WILL BE TO RAISE HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS  
FAR NE OK AND FAR NW AR.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021/  
 
AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES  
KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. VFR CONDITIONS WILL  
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO  
10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL  
ARKANSAS WILL BE ENDING SHORTLY, WITH A SUNNY AND PLEASANT AUTUMN  
DAY ON TAP TODAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TODAY, AND  
THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE ADVANCING  
WARM FRONT, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE IN OUR AREA COMING FRIDAY  
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND  
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT  
NORTH OF OUR AREA, WITH A WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND THEN EXPECTED.  
 
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL  
STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT  
STILL DIFFER ON THE INTENSITY OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. AT LEAST  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD  
FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE  
STORMS, ESPECIALLY IF THE STRONGER ECMWF VERIFIES.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY, WITH A  
WARMUP TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE  
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY  
ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN SOUTH  
THE PAST FEW DAYS. REGARDLESS, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND POPS  
WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE RAISED ONCE THE TIME PERIOD OF  
GREATEST POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE CLEAR.  
 
LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF  
MODELS IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME...MORE IN  
LINE WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS NUMBERS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 70 47 77 59 / 0 0 0 30  
FSM 73 49 77 56 / 0 0 0 10  
MLC 72 48 76 59 / 0 0 10 0  
BVO 70 43 75 55 / 0 0 0 30  
FYV 67 42 74 52 / 0 0 0 20  
BYV 66 44 73 54 / 0 0 0 30  
MKO 71 47 74 56 / 0 0 10 10  
MIO 67 43 73 54 / 0 0 0 40  
F10 71 47 76 58 / 0 0 10 10  
HHW 76 51 76 58 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
AVIATION.....07  
 
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