374
FXUS64 KTSA 140528
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1228 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
-SOME LOW STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST ACROSS FAR NE OK INTO NW AR
THURSDAY MORNING.
-AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF SOME UNUSUALLY QUIET WEATHER FOR MAY,
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, THE WEATHER IMPACT LOOKS LOW OVERALL.
-A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE
RISE.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE NW TO SE TONIGHT AS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS AND RETREATS NORTH. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR AND CLEAR SKIES, OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD
DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE,
DOWN SOUTH WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER CLOSER TO THE FRONT, LOWS IN
THE LOW 60S CAN BE EXPECTED.
LOOKING AT THE LARGER PICTURE, WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM NWRLY
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TO W TO SWRLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES ITS PLACE. AS PART OF THIS TRANSITION, MID-
LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
OVER THE REGION. THE LATEST CAMS HOLD OFF ON DEVELOPING A N-S BAND
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS UNTIL ALMOST 12Z, AND FOCUS THE
ACTIVITY FROM FAR EASTERN KS DOWN INTO FAR NE OK AND NW AR.
RAIN/STORM CHANCES SHOULD END BY MIDDAY AS THIS ZONE OF LIFT SHIFTS
EAST AND WEAKENS.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE. SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND MOVE EAST INTO THE EVENING.
STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY WEAKEN BEFORE THEY MAKE IT INTO EASTERN OK.
A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN OK ON THURSDAY, BETWEEN
LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL BE THE
RESULT, WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OK.
LACY
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
THE RRFS AND HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS TO BE A SUBTLE WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED. EITHER
WAY, THESE MODELS BREAK OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS OVER
THE AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FEATURE. THE
MODEL BLEND (NBM) HAD VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POP FORECAST AND
THIS WAS INCREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER A BROAD AREA. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON IN ITS WAKE. CLOUD COVER
WILL PROBABLY LIMIT HEATING AND THUS THE SEVERE RISK AS WELL.
DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE TO OUR WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT THE AREA INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, GLOBAL MODELS SHOW STRONGER RIDGING AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT OVER THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND HAVE ISOLATED
COVERAGE AT BEST. IT IS NOT LIKELY THIS ACTIVITY MAKES IT TO EASTERN
OK. THE BETTER STORM CHANCES STAY NORTH OF THE KS BORDER CLOSER TO A
FRONT. STORM COVERAGE ON SUNDAY LOOKS LOW AT BEST WITH WARM MID-
LEVEL TEMPS AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL WELL WEST. WHILE THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IN THE COMING DAYS, THERE
WILL BE A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.
THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL LIKELY FOCUS STORMS THAT WILL PROBABLY AFFECT THE
REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NOT MAKING MUCH MORE
EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK, THE BOUNDARY IS
LIKELY TO HANG OUT OVER OR NEAR THE REGION AND FOCUS MORE STORM
ACTIVITY. WITH THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS, SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
COULD DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
LACY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH
WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO DEVELOP
THURSDAY EVENING, RESULTING IN LLWS AT ALL SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 84 71 87 72 / 10 20 20 20
FSM 84 64 88 69 / 10 10 20 20
MLC 85 71 87 72 / 10 10 20 10
BVO 85 69 87 69 / 10 10 20 30
FYV 80 67 85 70 / 20 10 20 20
BYV 80 65 85 70 / 20 10 20 20
MKO 83 69 86 70 / 10 10 20 20
MIO 80 68 86 70 / 20 10 20 20
F10 84 71 86 71 / 0 20 20 10
HHW 84 68 87 69 / 10 0 20 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...05
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