009
FXUS64 KTSA 091730
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1230 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE WARM CONDITIONS WILL AID IN
LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-44.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY, GENERALLY RANGING FORM THE HIGH 70S TO MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WILL ALSO AGAIN BE COMMON
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
MID LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY,
LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK, FAST
MOVING AREA OF VORTICITY WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THIS FEATURE. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, BUT HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
LOW END POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WIND GENERALLY RANGING
FROM 10-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 30MPH WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
NEAR 90 DEGREES AND MIN RH VALUES FROM 25-35 PERCENT WILL CAUSE AT
LEAST LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
MORE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL SUPPRESS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY IS PROGGED TO HELP PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA
BY MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE
PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM A COUPLE OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOSTLY WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL REGION BUT THE
FRINGES OF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE COULD INTERACT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS STILL IN
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY MAKES ITS AND THUS WHERE
THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SET UP. WILL MAINTAIN THE MORE NORTHERN
SCENARIO AND GENERALLY KEEP HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-
44. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO MAKE A COMEBACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A RETURN
TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOKS TO FINISH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
SMALL POCKETS OF MVFR CONTINUE WITH FEW TO SCT OF LOW DECK OF
CLOUDS MAINLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING, MAINLY SKC IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURES CONTINUES
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE, LIGHT S/SE WINDS WILL PERSIST
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 60 86 64 87 / 0 10 0 0
FSM 57 83 61 85 / 0 10 0 0
MLC 56 85 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 56 86 59 87 / 0 10 0 0
FYV 52 80 58 82 / 0 10 0 0
BYV 53 79 60 82 / 0 20 0 0
MKO 58 83 61 86 / 0 10 0 0
MIO 58 81 62 83 / 0 20 0 0
F10 57 85 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 57 81 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...KELLY
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