955
FXUS64 KTSA 312324
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
624 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, INCLUDING SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL,
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES, INCLUDING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
- HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO EXISTS NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE INCHES
OF RAINFALL FORECAST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON TOP OF RECENT
RAINS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FLASH AS WELL AS RIVER FLOOD
CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
COMPACT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD REACHING NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES
INTO A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY EVENING. BOTH SURFACE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE
REGION AS STORMS ENTER THE CWA, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERE
POTENTIALS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES MORE INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. INSTABILITY AS WELL AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL HELP
TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIALS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE MAIN THREAT LATE TONIGHT. THUS,
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP SHOULD EXIT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY MORNING IS PROGGED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION AND EXIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BEFORE THE WAVE DEPARTS, THERE IS AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF WESTERN
ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS JUST BELOW
MENTIONABLE CRITERIA FOR THESE LOCATIONS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE, SCATTERING CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TEMPS WARM INTO
THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
QUICKLY EXITS MONDAY. IN RESPONSE, BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW RETURNS MONDAY AND QUICKLY INCREASES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE CWA. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD AID AFTERNOON TEMPS TO WARM INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S AND BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WAVE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS TUESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA TUESDAY EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE STORM CHANCES OVER THE
CWA AND INCREASE SEVERE POTENTIALS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AS IT ENTERS THE REGION. SEVERE POTENTIALS FOCUSED
ALONG/NEAR THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY EVENING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE
GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN OVER THE CWA, EITHER AS A SURFACE
FRONT OR IN AN ELEVATED FRONTAL POSITION ACROSS THE REGION. EITHER
WAY, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY. SEVERE
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY
AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SOUTH OF IT.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AT
THE SAME TIME, INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME FORM OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COULD HOLD OVER THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK AS WELL. THUS,
WILL CONTINUE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE, ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES COULD
EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.
THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK INTERACTING WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONSTANTLY BEING REINFORCED INTO THE REGION
WILL CREATE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT EACH DAY. THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY
BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN GOING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
EACH DAYS RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE DAY BEFORE AND THE MOST RECENT
RAINS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS
RIVER/STREAM FLOODING. PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG MAIN- STEM
RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST FORECASTS, AS
ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE RIVERS TO DEVELOP
FLOOD IMPACTS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO, WITH
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS, FLASH FLOODING IMPACTS COULD
QUICKLY DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME, MULTIPLE INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE
FORECAST NEXT WEEK AND THESE AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UPDATED AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WHERE LOWERED VSBY AND
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF
SOUTHERN TERMINALS BY MID MORNING SUNDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 63 85 64 87 / 60 10 0 0
FSM 64 84 64 89 / 50 10 0 0
MLC 63 83 65 87 / 60 20 0 0
BVO 60 85 61 87 / 60 0 0 0
FYV 60 82 61 86 / 50 10 0 0
BYV 62 82 61 85 / 40 10 0 0
MKO 63 83 64 86 / 60 10 0 0
MIO 60 82 62 85 / 60 0 0 0
F10 64 83 64 86 / 60 10 0 0
HHW 63 82 65 86 / 30 30 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...04
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