051
FXUS64 KTSA 211637
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1137 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021
AVIATION
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ANY INCREASING MID CLOUD LATE IN
THE PERIOD NOT EXPECTED TO YIELD ANY AVIATION IMPACTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1038 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021/
.UPDATE
DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY YIELDING QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT WILL BE TO RAISE HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
FAR NE OK AND FAR NW AR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021/
AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES
KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO
10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS WILL BE ENDING SHORTLY, WITH A SUNNY AND PLEASANT AUTUMN
DAY ON TAP TODAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH TODAY, AND
THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE ADVANCING
WARM FRONT, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE IN OUR AREA COMING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT
NORTH OF OUR AREA, WITH A WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND THEN EXPECTED.
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
STILL DIFFER ON THE INTENSITY OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. AT LEAST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS, ESPECIALLY IF THE STRONGER ECMWF VERIFIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL MONDAY, WITH A
WARMUP TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY
ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN SOUTH
THE PAST FEW DAYS. REGARDLESS, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND POPS
WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE RAISED ONCE THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME...MORE IN
LINE WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS NUMBERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 70 47 77 59 / 0 0 0 30
FSM 73 49 77 56 / 0 0 0 10
MLC 72 48 76 59 / 0 0 10 0
BVO 70 43 75 55 / 0 0 0 30
FYV 67 42 74 52 / 0 0 0 20
BYV 66 44 73 54 / 0 0 0 30
MKO 71 47 74 56 / 0 0 10 10
MIO 67 43 73 54 / 0 0 0 40
F10 71 47 76 58 / 0 0 10 10
HHW 76 51 76 58 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
AVIATION.....07
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