009
FXUS64 KTSA 210817
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
217 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
PLUNGE THIS MORNING, WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING THEIR COLDEST LOW
TEMPERATURE OF THE FALL SO FAR. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH BY MID MORNING, QUICKLY PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT, BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL COOL AND DRY AIR. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AS A RESULT, RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 50S IN NORTHERN AREAS, TO THE UPPER 50S OR LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHERN AREAS.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN THIS MORNING, WITH MOST
AREAS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A
FREEZE WARNING EVEN FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NOT FROZEN YET GIVEN THAT
THE GROWING SEASON IS NOW OVER, BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THE
FINAL CALL ON THAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN QUITE
CHILLY, RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW 60S IN THE
SOUTH.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE REBOUNDING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO THE
AREA, WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO THE 60S ON SATURDAY AND LOW 70S BY
SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM, WHICH ARRIVES MONDAY. LIKE THE LAST FEW FRONTS,
THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, WITH ESSENTIALLY NO ENSEMBLE
SIGNAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. IT'S IMPACTS WILL BE ANOTHER SURGE
OF COOL AND DRY AIR AS WELL AS BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD
DROP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS BEGINNING MONDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ISN'T UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT MAY ENTER THE AREA NEAR
THANKSGIVING. AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS FAIRLY LARGE FOR
THIS PERIOD, WITH WILD RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY AMONG THE MODELS.
ENSEMBLE EOF ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DOMINANT MODE OF UNCERTAINTY IS
WITH THE LONGITUDINAL AXIS OF WHERE THE TROUGH SETS UP, WITH
SECONDARY UNCERTAINTY RELATING TO ITS AMPLITUDE. EITHER WAY, IT'S
AT LEAST FAIR TO SAY THAT MOST LIKELY WE WILL ENTER ANOTHER COOLER
AND WETTER STRETCH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODIC GUSTY WINDS DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 56 32 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 59 34 59 36 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 62 33 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 55 27 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 54 27 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 52 30 53 33 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 56 30 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 51 28 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
F10 58 32 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 64 35 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ049-053>059-
061>063-068-069-075-076.
AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07
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