339
FXUS64 KTSA 051704
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1104 AM CST TUE DEC 5 2023
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TODAY)
ISSUED AT 942 AM CST TUE DEC 5 2023
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON ITS
BACKSIDE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THAN THOSE YESTERDAY IN MOST SPOTS, BUT STILL NEAR TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL. CLOUD COVER TO OUR NORTH SHOULD LARGELY AVOID THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING THE MID
CLOUDS IN NORTHERN KANSAS DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE SOUTH. THE
GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS WELL IN HAND, AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED
THIS MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST TUE DEC 5 2023
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GO CALM TONIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN, AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESUME.
THESE WILL QUICKLY WARM TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR 60F. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WINDIER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR THURSDAY, WITH MODELED 925 HPA WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS.
THIS SHOULD AT LEAST PUSH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE, QUITE
POSSIBLY A BIT STRONGER, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. DEW POINTS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THIS POINT, HIGHEST
TO THE SOUTH, WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS
THE FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR. SURFACE CAPE
VALUES WILL RISE TO 500-1000 J, WITH THE EPS EFI FOR CAPE YIELDING A
VALUE OF 0.7 TO 0.8, A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL VALUE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE WIND PROFILE WILL VEER WITH HEIGHT WITH STRONG SPEED
SHEAR AS WELL. THE WIND SPEED AT 300 HPA WILL APPROACH 100 KTS.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL
BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS, FOR THE MOST PART RAINFALL WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE.
THE NEXT PORTION OF THE STORM WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL WRAP AROUND ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. FOR THE
MOST PART, MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A QUICKER SOLUTION WHERE
THE WRAP AROUND GETS GOING EAST OF THE AREA. CLUSTER ANALYSIS
SHOWS AROUND 2/3 OF GUIDANCE HONING IN IN THE FASTER SOLUTION.
EVEN SO, THERE MAY STILL BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ACCUMULATION, IF ANY, LOOKS TO BE
QUITE MINIMAL. THE NBM SEEMED TOO WARM IN THE POST STORM
ENVIRONMENT SO TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CST TUE DEC 5 2023
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WNW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW
WITH SPEEDS 5 TO 10 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FSM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 56 31 58 42 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 59 32 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 61 31 61 41 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 55 26 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 55 26 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 51 28 55 40 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 56 31 57 40 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 51 28 56 41 / 0 0 0 0
F10 58 31 59 42 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 61 33 58 37 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22
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