414  
FXUS64 KTSA 111734  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
1134 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 1134 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2025  
 
- RAIN WINDS DOWN THIS MORNING. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES  
IN THE BOSTON MOUNTAINS IN FAR NW AR. SOME ELEVATED ROADWAYS  
COULD BECOME SLICK WITH A FEW BRIEF POWER OUTAGES.  
 
- MEDIUM CHANCE FOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS WEDNESDAY WITH A  
MIXTURE OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN NEAR OR NORTH OF  
I-44. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
- COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY BUT  
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FOR FRIDAY.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2025  
 
RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA AS OF MID TO LATE MORNING AND  
THIS WILL OFFER A BREAK IN PRECIP AS THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN  
SYSTEMS. AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS  
WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK THIS AFTERNOON, SO NOMINAL DIURNAL  
RISES CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST LOOK GOOD. REMAINING FIRST  
PERIOD ELEMENTS ARE LINE AS WELL, HOWEVER WILL RE RUN THE ZONES  
TO REMOVE THE TEMPORAL RAIN MENTION.  
 
UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM OUT SHORTLY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TODAY)  
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2025  
 
RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA  
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL WIND DOWN  
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE  
TO HOVER NEAR TO JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST  
ARKANSAS WHERE SOME FREEZING RAIN HAS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS ON THE  
DECLINE AND ANY ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL AND  
MAINLY LIMITED TO ELEVATED SURFACES. SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES  
COULD BE SLICK IN THESE AREAS AS WELL, SO USE CAUTION WHEN OUT  
DRIVING THIS MORNING.  
 
ELSEWHERE, A COLD RAIN IS WHAT IS LEFT FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.  
THE MID LEVEL WAVE IMPACTING THE AREA IS SHIFTING EASTWARD THIS  
MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO EXIT THE AREA AND  
PROVIDE US WITH A MOSTLY DRY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
TRY TO SETTLE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY TODAY, KEEPING  
WINDS NORTHERLY. THE LIMITED COLD ADVECTION AND DENSE CLOUD COVER  
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY FLAT DURING THE DAY TODAY, WITH  
HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FORM THE MID 30S TO THE LOW 40S THIS  
AFTERNOON. NO MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME  
HOURS OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES FOR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE ACROSS  
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY.  
 
BOWLAN  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2025  
 
MOVING INTO TONIGHT, THE FORECAST GETS TRICKY WITH SURFACE  
TEMPERATURES PLAYING A BIG ROLE IN ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.  
THE PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS PROGGED BY MOST GUIDANCE TO  
STALL OUT NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS  
A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS. STILL,  
SHALLOW COLD AIRMASSES TEND TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH IN THESE  
SCENARIOS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WOULD ALLOW A BOUNDARY TO SET UP  
NEAR I-44 TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW  
FREEZING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING  
TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH  
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES EXPANDING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND  
WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE  
BELOW FREEZING, A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW WILL  
OCCUR WHICH WILL MAINLY BE FORE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44 IN  
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SOUTH OF I-44 LOOKS TO STAY PREDOMINATELY RAIN  
THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY, THE ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION PATTERN  
WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION AND  
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING.  
A FEW COULD POTENTIALLY BE STRONGER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL,  
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40.  
 
THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL  
IMPACTS FROM ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR. ICE  
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH APPEAR  
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH SOME  
SNOW/SLEET TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER.  
BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME MELTING DURING  
THE EVENT AS WELL. WITH THAT, WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WINTER  
WEATHER ADVISORY ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ONE THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE ANY  
ISOLATED BANDS OF CONVECTIVE SLEET THAT COULD QUICKLY DUMP WARNING  
LEVEL SLEET TOTALS WITHIN A NARROW AXIS AND CAUSE ROADS TO BECOME  
SLICK AND SLEET COVERED QUICKLY. A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE  
SNOW WILL FOLLOW IN THE WRAP AROUND PRECIP, AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS  
FAR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE  
SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS.  
 
A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL FULLY SPILL INTO THE REGION BEHIND  
THE PRECIP WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES  
ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS NEAR  
ZERO ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY MORNING, WITH VALUES  
OF 5-15 F ELSEWHERE. THIS WOULD STAY ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY  
CRITERIA, BUT AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD AS DATA  
EVOLVES. THURSDAY WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY, WITH SOME LOCATION  
STAYING BELOW FREEZING...THOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE  
DAY. A QUICK WARM UP IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER  
SYSTEM BRINGS MORE COLD TEMPERATURES AND SOME RAIN/WINTER PRECIP  
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA.  
 
BOWLAN  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2025  
 
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES FOR MUCH OF THE  
VALID PERIOD, THOUGH THE NW AR SITES WILL SEE IFR/LIFR  
CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A PERIOD OF  
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL  
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AT ALL SITES AFTER 08Z,  
WITH MOSTLY MVFR VSBYS IN -RA. THE NE OK SITES MAY  
SEE A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIXED PRECIP FROM LATE TONIGHT  
THROUGH 15Z. FURTHER EAST, PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO END  
AFTER 17Z.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
TUL 38 31 33 15 / 10 90 90 0  
FSM 42 38 44 24 / 10 60 90 0  
MLC 41 36 41 19 / 10 90 80 0  
BVO 36 28 30 10 / 10 90 90 0  
FYV 38 33 39 17 / 10 60 90 0  
BYV 35 32 39 17 / 10 30 90 0  
MKO 40 35 38 17 / 10 70 90 0  
MIO 36 32 33 13 / 10 80 90 0  
F10 39 34 38 17 / 10 90 90 0  
HHW 45 40 48 23 / 10 80 60 0  
 
 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST  
WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054>057-059.  
 
AR...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...23  
LONG TERM....04  
AVIATION...23  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab OK Page
The Nexlab AR Page
Main Text Page