283
FXUS64 KTSA 010558
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1258 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.
- THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY SHOULD CONSIDER
SHELTERING OPTIONS AND REMAIN WEATHER AWARE, WITH LIGHTNING
AND LOW POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
- STRONGER COLD FRONT BY LATE WEEK WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EVEN
FURTHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, MAINTAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
IN A FEW SPOTS MUCH AS WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS OUR AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE, WITH THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTING EAST INTO
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THURSDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WASHING OUT BY LATE
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA, SO TEMPERATURES THERE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN WEDNESDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT NOW APPEARS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY, WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AND WILL BE TIED TO THE EVENTUAL SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
FRIDAY COLD FRONT. STAYED WITH THE NBM SOLUTION FOR NOW WITH THE
MAIN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES REMAINING INTO THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. LATE MORNING MONDAY,
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DROP SOUTH OUT OF KANSAS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL CARRY PROB30 GROUPS FOR TIMING OF
GREATER POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. STORM POTENTIALS DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER TO KBVO FOR NOW. CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE
STRONGER SHOWERS AND ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE TO AN EAST/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 65 80 62 85 / 40 10 0 0
FSM 66 84 65 88 / 40 30 0 0
MLC 65 82 62 85 / 20 30 0 0
BVO 60 79 57 85 / 40 10 0 0
FYV 60 81 58 85 / 40 30 10 0
BYV 61 80 59 84 / 40 30 10 10
MKO 64 80 61 83 / 30 20 0 0
MIO 61 79 57 84 / 40 20 0 0
F10 63 80 59 84 / 30 20 0 0
HHW 66 82 63 84 / 10 20 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20
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