046
FXUS64 KTSA 222343
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
543 PM CST WED JAN 22 2020
AVIATION
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
ONGOING IFR TO PERIODIC LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MOST TERMINALS
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS FAR NW AR WHERE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE. LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A GRADUAL FOCUS EASTWARD. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT THROUGH E OK ON PERIPHERY OF LOWER CLOUD
DECK AND FCST WILL BEGIN TREND THIS DIRECTION. THURS AFTERNOON
SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 249 PM CST WED JAN 22 2020/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TRAVEL IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM
FROM LIGHT WINTRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
LIFT IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL OK IS
PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS, THUS A LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS MOST
LIKELY. HOWEVER, IN THE LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY AND IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF W AR AND SOUTHERN LE FLORE COUNTY OK, TEMPS
CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR FREEZING. THUS A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE OR SLEET IS POSSIBLE THRU THE EVENING IN THESE
LOCATIONS. TRAVEL DOWN THRU THE BOSTON MOUNTAINS ON ROADWAYS WITH
LONG BRIDGES SUCH AS I-49 WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES. THUS, A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER MUCH OF NW AR AND
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THRU MIDNIGHT. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT, EVENTUALLY ENDING THE TRAVEL
ISSUES.
THE LATEST HI-RES DATA SUGGESTS A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AN ADVANCING WIND SHIFT/FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE DOWN NEAR THE RED RIVER
WITH SOME AIRMASS IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. ONCE
THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CLEARS THE AREA, THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTION UNTIL WE BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER MO IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CURRENT THOUGHT IS INITIAL PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERS BUT A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH, WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS NEAR THE KS AND MO BORDERS.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS, QUIET AND WARMER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION BY TUESDAY. IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TIME TO DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
NORTHWARD IN TIME TO PRODUCE A SEVERE THREAT, BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL OF SOME WINTER WEATHER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT DEPARTS. DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED IN THE COMING
DAYS.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 36 47 32 44 / 70 10 20 0
FSM 34 43 33 44 / 80 50 20 0
MLC 36 48 32 49 / 70 10 0 0
BVO 35 46 30 44 / 50 20 20 0
FYV 35 40 30 39 / 80 40 40 10
BYV 34 40 31 38 / 80 60 50 20
MKO 35 46 31 44 / 70 20 10 0
MIO 35 42 30 39 / 70 40 50 10
F10 35 47 32 47 / 70 10 10 0
HHW 36 48 34 52 / 80 20 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ068-
069-072-076.
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ARZ002-
010-011-019-020-029.
AVIATION.....07
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