205
FXUS64 KTSA 260051
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
651 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 515 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WITH ALL-TIME DECEMBER RECORD
HIGHS ALSO POSSIBLE.
- STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS AS WELL. MUCH COLDER TEMPS, MORE
TYPICAL OF LATE DECEMBER, CAN BE EXPECTED TO START NEXT WEEK.
- AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
THE MAIN UPDATE THIS EVENING WAS TO UPDATE THE FOG FORECAST, WITH
DATA HINTING THAT THE BEST DENSE FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE THE IN
LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY NEAR OR EAST OF FT SMITH FRIDAY
MORNING.
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ADVANCING EAST ACROSS KS. A WEAK BOUNDARY TRAILING FROM THIS LOW
WILL DROP DOWN INTO NE OK BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO NW AR AND SE OK
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. NOTABLY DRIER AIR IS OBSERVED BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN KS, AND THIS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS, THE HREF HAS SOME LOW PROBS ACROSS NE
OK NEAR OR IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY AS TEMPS COOL AND WINDS GO
LIGHT, EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE NORTH. KEPT A BROAD PATCHY FOG
MENTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE OK AND NW AR, AS WELL AS IN THE
VALLEYS OF SE OK. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE HITTING THE LOWER ARK
RIVER VALLEY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG, AND THIS WAS
REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS, MAINLY TO THE EAST OF FSM. WE'LL JUST HAVE
TO WAIT AND SEE.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SURE TO FALL THIS CHRISTMAS DAY AND ONCE
AGAIN, MONTHLY RECORDS ARE A POSSIBILITY. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER
RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS MORNING,
WHILE A VERY WARM AIRMASS REMAINS SOUTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR I-70 IN CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING. BY
LATE TODAY SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EJECT FROM WESTERN
TROUGH AND SERVE TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE TO SOME DEGREE. THIS
ALSO WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY TO PUSH INTO AT LEAST NORTHEAST OK BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DROP OFF IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE BORDER
AND IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT, WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
FOG POTENTIAL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY AS WELL AS SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON FRIDAY, STILL
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE RECORD TEMPS ARE AGAIN LIKELY TO THE SOUTH.
THE BOUNDARY THE RETREATS BACK NORTH SATURDAY WITH RECORD HIGHS
LIKELY FOR ALL AREAS, WITH ONE FINAL SHOT AT ALL-TIME DECEMBER
RECORDS.
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL OCCUR BY SUNDAY AS WESTERN TROUGH PHASES
WITH SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS WILL DRIVE AN
ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEAST OK, WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE WILL MAKE IT
FEEL DECIDEDLY COLDER AS TEMPERATURES FALL IN THE AFTERNOON. A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT ALSO INTRODUCES SOME CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR, PERHAPS
EVEN A LOW-END THREAT OF A STRONG STORM OR TWO, AS THE FRONT
DISPLACES THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH DEW POINT AIRMASS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE SLOWER SHORTWAVE PROGRESSION ALSO KEEPS THE
CHANCES OF PRECIP A BIT LONGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BY WHICH TIME
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE COOLED ENOUGH FOR A MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE-OVER
TO LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY AFFECTING HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST AR
AS IT APPEARS NOW. IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AS FAR AS TRAVEL,
BUT THE TEMPERATURES CHANGE AFTER THIS RECENT STRETCH WILL BE A BIT
OF A SHOCK.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA, WITH HIGHS IN SOME PLACES MONDAY
STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING. TUESDAY MORNING WILL START
OFF COLD WITH UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO MODERATE QUICKLY AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST AND BEGINS TO INDUCE
SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
BEGINNING OF 2026.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST PLACES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUD. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE OK
LATE TONIGHT, NW AR TOMORROW MORNING AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
KMLC TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL. A LIGHT NORTH OR VARIABLE WIND CAN
BE EXPECTED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF IT.
DENSE FOG DEVELOPED IN THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY NEAR KFSM
LAST NIGHT AND THERE ARE HINTS IN THE DATA THAT AT LEAST PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN BY FRIDAY MORNING AFTER ANY POTENTIAL
MVFR CIGS SCATTER OUT. INSERTED A TEMPO MENTION AT KFSM TO COVER.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 56 75 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 61 80 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 61 80 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 49 73 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 61 77 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 63 75 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 59 76 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 56 72 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
F10 59 77 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 61 80 60 78 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30
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