500  
FXUS64 KTSA 191837  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
137 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024  
 
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS, MAINLY IN TWO SEPARATE LOCATIONS. ONE AREA OF  
FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, MAINLY NORTH OF I-44 NEAR  
A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY LEFTOVER FROM OVERNIGHT AND  
MORNING RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A FEW  
RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ZONE, WITH SOME  
HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS WILL  
BE WITHIN A NARROW, DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AXIS STREAMING  
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS  
ASSOCIATED WITH TS ALBERT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF.  
INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED IN THIS REGION, BUT ENOUGH EXISTS  
THAT A FEWS STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL LEAD  
TO HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE MAIN  
CONCERN WITH ANY SHOWER/STORM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOSS  
OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO  
DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. OTHERWISE, A WARM AND HUMID  
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
BOWLAN  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN EXPANDING BACK WESTWARD DURING THE  
DAY THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER OVER THE  
REGION AND THE BEGINNING OF A WARMUP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A  
FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE  
SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPER  
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. HAVE MAINTAINED POPS FOR THOSE AREAS  
TOMORROW THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AT BEST DUE TO  
THE EXPANDING HIGH.  
 
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES PLANTED OVER THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS. HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES LOOK TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE  
REGION, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY RISING ABOVE THAT. HEAT  
HEADLINES COULD BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY  
BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A  
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD SLIP INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA  
SUNDAY MORNING AND BRING SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS FROM  
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY. THIS  
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT AND SHIFT BACK NORTH OF THE  
REGION BY MONDAY.  
 
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT  
FURTHER WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN HOW  
FAR WEST WITHIN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL  
GUIDANCE. NEVERTHELESS, SOME SEMBLANCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT  
SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK,  
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AFFECT THE  
AREA.  
 
BOWLAN  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024  
 
BOTTOM LINE UPFRONT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE  
PERIOD. SEVERAL DIFFERENT CLOUD LAYERS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE  
SITES, WITH LOWER CLOUDS (UPPER BOUND MVFR TRENDING TOWARD LOWER  
END VFR) APPEARING FROM MID-MORNING THRU JUST AFTER SUNSET EACH  
DAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A LARGER AREA OF SUB-VFR CIGS IS NOT  
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA TOO LOW TO MENTION  
ALSO. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW IMPACTFUL LEVELS.  
 
LACY  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 73 91 74 94 / 0 10 0 0  
FSM 74 93 73 95 / 0 10 0 0  
MLC 72 89 71 93 / 0 20 0 0  
BVO 69 91 71 93 / 10 10 0 0  
FYV 69 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 0  
BYV 68 89 68 91 / 0 0 0 0  
MKO 72 89 72 92 / 0 20 0 0  
MIO 70 89 71 91 / 0 0 0 0  
F10 71 89 71 92 / 0 20 0 0  
HHW 73 89 71 91 / 10 10 0 0  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...04  
LONG TERM....04  
AVIATION...30  
 
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