953  
FXUS64 KTSA 280431  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
1031 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021  
   
AVIATION
 
 
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.  
CONVECTION HAS WANED ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS LIKELY TO  
REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS  
CONTINUING. ONGOING LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE THE RULE  
AND THE AREA OF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OK IS EXPECTED TO  
DETERIORATE AS SFC WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD.ALSO  
EXPECT THE CORRIDOR OF LOWER VISIBILITIES TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT NORTH  
OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY INTO NW OK WILL  
PASS NE OK TERMINALS BY MID MORNING WITH IMPROVING FLIGHT LEVELS.  
EXPECT CONVECTION TO EXPAND ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER EAST AND  
POSSIBLY IMPACT SE OK - NW AR TERMINALS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE  
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 926 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021/  
   
.UPDATE
 
 
DISCUSSION...  
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL THUNDER REMAIN THIS EVENING  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL  
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA  
LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD. THE MOIST AIR  
MASS WILL ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY  
SOUTH OF I-40 AND IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. A DENSE FOG  
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING FOR THESE  
AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT  
AND ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW. MORE SHOWER  
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT  
TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.  
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE  
PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY  
AFTERNOON, LEAVING BEHIND A BREEZY, COOL DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 
MAIN UPDATE FOR TONIGHT WAS TO LOWER POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS  
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND TO ADD PREVIOUSLY  
MENTIONED FOG.  
 
BOWLAN  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 47 57 33 58 / 60 10 0 0  
FSM 50 64 38 60 / 60 70 20 10  
MLC 54 62 37 56 / 60 60 10 20  
BVO 43 55 29 57 / 50 0 0 0  
FYV 51 59 32 56 / 60 60 10 0  
BYV 50 59 33 55 / 60 60 10 0  
MKO 51 58 33 56 / 60 40 0 10  
MIO 46 54 29 56 / 60 20 0 0  
F10 50 59 33 57 / 60 30 0 10  
HHW 54 65 41 55 / 50 80 30 30  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053-065-066-  
070>076.  
 
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.  
 

 
 

 
 
AVIATION.....07  
 
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