337
FXUS64 KTSA 240518
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1118 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1101 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
- A VERY HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY,
BRINGING CLIMATOLOGICALLY EXTREME SNOW AND SLEET TOTALS TO THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
- LIFE THREATENING COLD WILL ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT, CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO.
- TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE NEXT WEEK, SO SOCIETAL
IMPACTS WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
AS OF LATE FRIDAY EVENING, THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE HAD MOVED
THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AT THE SAME
TIME, ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WAS
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE
CWA. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
INDICATED A WARM NOSE JUST ABOVE 0C HELPING TO CREATE A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS, WHILE MOSTLY SNOW WAS OBSERVED OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. A MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WERE BEING
OBSERVED OVER PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE WARM NOSE
LOOKED TO BE MORE PRONOUNCED CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER AND AS SUCH,
A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WERE LIKELY DEVELOPING.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA. LATEST DATA CONTINUED
WITH THE TREND OF PREVIOUS RUNS HIGHLIGHTING THE MOISTURE/THETA-E
AXIS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHWARD COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO. THUS, HIGHER
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44. WITHIN THIS HIGHER PRECIP AXIS
INTERACTING WITH GREATER ISENTROPIC LIFT FRIDAY NIGHT, SNOW
MIXING WITH SLEET IS EXPECTED. FARTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA, WITH THE WARM NOSE A LITTLE MORE IN PLAY, A HIGHER
POTENTIAL OF SLEET MIXING WITH SNOW IS FORECAST. WITH THE
SOUTHWARD TREND IN DATA, SHORT-TERM SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, ITS
STILL A NON-ZERO POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITHIN
THE HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW/SLEET. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION
OF THIS TRANSITION OF HEAVY SNOW VS HEAVY SLEET WILL BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS OF LOCALLY 8-11 INCHES OF
SNOW VS. MULTIPLE INCHES OF SLEET. MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO INTERSTATE
44 AND NORTHWARD SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINATELY SNOW, AND CLOSER TO
THE RED RIVER COULD REMAIN A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40 GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
SOUTH OF HWY 412. SLEET AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1-2 INCHES CLOSER TO
INTERSTATE 40 AND SLIGHT SOUTH ARE FORECAST AS WELL. SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A MCALESTER TO FORT SMITH LINE,
SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS REMAIN IN FLUX WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SLEET. IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND LOCALLY HIGHER ARE
FORECAST ALONG WITH SLEET AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, A LULL IN PRECIP IS FORECAST.
THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE EVENT IS OVER, ITS JUST A BREAK BEFORE THE
SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES IN SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. BESIDES
THE WINTRY PRECIP INTO SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO WARMING SATURDAY. LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WHILE HIGHS
ONLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY OUT
OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST CREATING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 BELOW ZERO
TO 10 ABOVE ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THUS, WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE EXTREME COLD WARNING AND THE WINTER STORM WARNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
THE SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP DEVELOPS SATURDAY EVENING WITH A 850-MB
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROF AXIS MOVING INTO THE REGION. AHEAD/EAST OF
THIS BOUNDARY, A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET LOOKS TO AGAIN DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH PRIMARILY SNOW
FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT, A TRANSITION TO MAINLY ALL SNOW DEVELOPS WITH
SNOW THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY
MORNING. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, THE 700-MB TROF AXIS FINALLY MOVES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY HELPS BRING STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL TO 8 TO 14 INCHES FORECAST ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40, ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 4 AND SLEET AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS WOULD
PUT STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF SNOW/SLEET AT 8 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TO 3 TO 8
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
AGAIN, WITH A SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND, VERY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE
SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS CLOUD COVER SCATTERS OUT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF AXIS. LOW TEMPS MONDAY MORNING NEAR 10
BELOW ZERO NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER TO THE SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE RED
RIVER ARE FORECAST WITH WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO.
FOR NEXT WEEK, SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHICH
WILL HELP WARM TEMPS UP CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THOUGH, THE AMOUNT OF SNOW STILL ON
THE GROUND WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING. DURING THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. LITTLE TO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SHOULD KEEP THE
PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE DRY. THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WAVE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THAT COULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. THOUGH FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
A QUICK TRANSITION OF VFR CONDITIONS TO MVFR HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AT
ALL TAF SITES AND WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS ALL OF E OK AND NW AR. NORTH OF I-40, SNOW SHOULD DOMINATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL DOMINATE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. STILL UNCERTAIN JUST HOW LOW
CIGS WILL DROP, BUT AT THIS TIME MVFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, PERIODS OF IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY UNDERNEATH HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW
AND SLEET. A LULL IN HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IS STILL
POSSIBLE IN THIS TIMEFRAME. ANOTHER HEAVY BAND OF SNOW AND SLEET IS
EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT
OF THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME, WITH
LESS GUSTS. OVERALL, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FORECAST
WITH LOWEST CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIPITATION TIMING/DURATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 8 11 7 17 / 100 70 100 70
FSM 16 17 13 21 / 100 100 100 90
MLC 15 17 9 20 / 100 100 100 80
BVO 3 9 4 17 / 100 70 90 60
FYV 9 13 8 17 / 100 100 100 90
BYV 7 11 8 17 / 100 100 100 90
MKO 13 15 8 18 / 100 100 100 80
MIO 6 10 6 16 / 100 90 100 70
F10 11 13 7 19 / 100 100 100 80
HHW 20 21 13 21 / 100 100 100 80
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...67
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page