551
FXUS64 KTSA 232352
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
652 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF I-40 THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER WILL
OCCUR NEAR NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40 FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE SEVERE. CLOSE MONITORING IS
RECOMMENDED.
- DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY TO TUESDAY BEFORE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE YET AGAIN MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
A DRY LINE IS SLOWLY ADVANCING EAST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE DRY LINE IS MERGING WITH AN ADVANCING FRONT, COMING
FROM THE NORTHWEST, WITH THE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. SO FAR, THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO FILL THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WITH SOME WARMING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PUSH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
CAM GUIDANCE HAS GRADUALLY TRENDED UP WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FOR THIS EVENING, WITH SEVERAL RECENT HRRR RUNS SHOWING SCATTERED
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE. ANY OF THESE STORMS WOULD HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE, BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE TRIPLE POINT. ACCORDINGLY, CONFIDENCE IS GROWING ON AT
LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING FOR THE FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN EXCELLENT SHEAR,
INSTABILITY, AND LOW LCLS, ALL SEVERE MODES APPEAR POSSIBLE. THE
WINDOW WILL ONLY BE A FEW HOURS, HOWEVER, AS THE COLD FRONT WILL
CATCH UP BY LATE EVENING, WITH STORMS LIKELY MORE CONFINED TO THE
FRONT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE INITIAL HAZARDS WITH THE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE HIGHER END,
WITH TORNADOES, HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY RAIN ALL POSSIBLE. WITH TIME
THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TOWARDS STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN, THOUGH HAIL AND TORNADOES CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT EITHER.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD WANE BY THE LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, BUT SOME STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THROUGH DAWN
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE NORTH,
FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, WITH MID 60S IN THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT, PARTICULARLY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO, AND IF IT WILL
RETREAT NORTH ON FRIDAY AT ALL. BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REINVIGORATE NEAR THE
FRONT, MOVING SOUTH INTO THE EVENING. CAMS SHOW PLENTY OF POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN, WITH HAIL LIKELY THE INITIAL
THREAT, TRANSITIONING TO MAIN RAIN AND WIND OVER TIME.
THERE MAY BE A SHORT BREAK INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT SURGES
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WITH CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND A
UNSTABLE/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT STORMS WILL FORM LATER SATURDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNCERTAIN ABOUT MANY ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH END. SUNDAY APPEARS TO HAVE AN EVEN MORE
EXTREME CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT, AND ANYTHING THAT DOES GET GOING
MAY BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY SEVERE. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ALL SEVERE MODES, INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES. HOWEVER, THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER WE CAN OVERCOME CONVECTIVE CAPPING. THIS WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE KNOWN WITH CONFIDENCE UNTIL WE SEE WHAT ACTUALLY
HAPPENS SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL END THE STORM THREAT MONDAY MORNING, WITH MILD
AND DRY WEATHER INTO TUESDAY. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESUME BY
MID WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN NORTH-CENTRAL OK AS OF THIS WRITING.
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE LINE
OF STORMS. ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION TIMING SOME, BUT MAINTAINED MUCH
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IS, WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
CONTINUING AT OR AROUND KFSM AND KMLC BEYOND 18Z/1PM, NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AND INCREASE OVER THE AR
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
TURN NORTH OR NORTHEAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 62 79 57 81 / 80 30 10 30
FSM 65 79 60 84 / 70 90 30 20
MLC 67 81 60 83 / 60 70 30 20
BVO 56 78 52 81 / 90 20 0 30
FYV 61 76 55 81 / 80 80 20 20
BYV 61 75 57 79 / 80 80 20 10
MKO 63 76 58 81 / 70 60 20 20
MIO 60 76 55 80 / 90 30 10 20
F10 63 78 59 81 / 70 70 10 20
HHW 67 81 62 81 / 40 50 60 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...67
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