953
FXUS64 KTSA 280431
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1031 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021
AVIATION
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CONVECTION HAS WANED ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
CONTINUING. ONGOING LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE THE RULE
AND THE AREA OF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OK IS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE AS SFC WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD.ALSO
EXPECT THE CORRIDOR OF LOWER VISIBILITIES TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT NORTH
OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY INTO NW OK WILL
PASS NE OK TERMINALS BY MID MORNING WITH IMPROVING FLIGHT LEVELS.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO EXPAND ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER EAST AND
POSSIBLY IMPACT SE OK - NW AR TERMINALS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 926 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021/
.UPDATE
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL THUNDER REMAIN THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD. THE MOIST AIR
MASS WILL ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I-40 AND IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING FOR THESE
AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW. MORE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, LEAVING BEHIND A BREEZY, COOL DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
MAIN UPDATE FOR TONIGHT WAS TO LOWER POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND TO ADD PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED FOG.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 47 57 33 58 / 60 10 0 0
FSM 50 64 38 60 / 60 70 20 10
MLC 54 62 37 56 / 60 60 10 20
BVO 43 55 29 57 / 50 0 0 0
FYV 51 59 32 56 / 60 60 10 0
BYV 50 59 33 55 / 60 60 10 0
MKO 51 58 33 56 / 60 40 0 10
MIO 46 54 29 56 / 60 20 0 0
F10 50 59 33 57 / 60 30 0 10
HHW 54 65 41 55 / 50 80 30 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053-065-066-
070>076.
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.
AVIATION.....07
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