985
FXUS64 KTSA 242318
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
618 PM CDT WED APR 24 2019
AVIATION
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING, WITH RAINFALL BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z.
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH IFR CIGS
BECOMING MORE PREVALENT ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE INCREASING SHOWERS. SHOULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT ACROSS EASTERN OK TOWARD 15-18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED APR 24 2019/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY MID LEVEL VORT MAXES RESIDE OVER NORTHWESTERN OK AND
OVER FAR WEST TX WHICH WILL AMALGAMATE OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION
OVERNIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE EXPANDING PRECIP ACROSS SE OK
THROUGH WESTERN AR LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE WAVE PUSHES FURTHER EASTWARD AND PRECIP
FOLLOWS. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER RESUMES.
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH CONVECTION LIKELY
CAPPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY, WITH ANY BOUNDARY
FOCUSED STORMS HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. FLOW ALOFT
WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO A FAST ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS SHOWN
TO LIFT NORTHWARD THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND THE
INHERENTLY UNSETTLED FLOW WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE CONTINUES TO BE SHOW
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE TUES/WED TIMEFRAME. THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER WHICH IS CERTAINLY NOT ATYPICAL FOR LATE APRIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 54 78 50 76 / 10 10 0 0
FSM 60 74 51 78 / 90 80 0 0
MLC 58 75 52 77 / 80 40 0 0
BVO 51 79 49 76 / 0 10 0 0
FYV 57 71 48 73 / 70 60 10 0
BYV 57 71 48 74 / 60 70 10 0
MKO 56 75 50 76 / 50 30 0 0
MIO 54 76 47 74 / 10 20 0 0
F10 56 77 51 76 / 30 20 0 0
HHW 60 74 53 77 / 100 60 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
AVIATION.....18
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