688
FXUS64 KTSA 090823
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
323 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
- SPOTTY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FRIDAY SOUTH OF I-40.
- PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN ARKANSAS MONDAY. WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
ELONGATED UPPER LOW EXTENDS ACROSS MS VALLEY WESTWARD INTO OK/AR
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION AGAIN TODAY, MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-40.
OTHERWISE SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
ABOVE MENTIONED LOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS INTO
OUR AREA BRINGING A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND. BY MONDAY THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO DRIFT BACK NORTH AND MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND BACK
WESTWARD INTO PARTS OF AR MONDAY.
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATUES BY MID-WEEK. INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION INTO A BIT MORE ACTIVE PATTERN CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND,
WHICH MAY BE A PERIOD TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF'S AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 76 49 74 51 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 78 54 77 53 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 76 52 75 51 / 20 10 0 0
BVO 76 45 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 75 47 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 74 48 72 51 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 76 50 74 50 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 74 46 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
F10 76 50 73 50 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 75 55 74 53 / 30 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05
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