974   
FXUS64 KTSA 311125  
AFDTSA  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
625 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
   
UPDATED AT 621 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025  
  
 - PATCHY FROST THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A FROST   
   ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT  
   PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW.  
  
 - A STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT SATURDAY TO BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES,   
   AS WELL AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL   
   FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.  
  
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
  
  
   
SHORT TERM  
  
(TODAY)  
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025  
  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MORNING,   
MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS UNDERNEATH CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS   
WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS A WIDE AREA OF   
EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR EARLY THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP   
INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY DIP   
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL   
COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW, FROM 3   
AM TO 9 AM.   
  
AFTER A VERY CHILLY START TO THE DAY, A STRONG MORNING INVERSION   
WILL BEGIN TO MIX-OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES   
AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY, HELPING WARM   
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES (A FEW DEGREE   
BELOW AVERAGE) BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND   
VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAYTIME. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE   
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. BUT   
OVERALL, TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY.  
  
MEJIA  
  
  
   
LONG TERM  
  
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025  
  
MAINLY LOW-IMPACT WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.   
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A MUCH MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT   
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN (MOSTLY) HIGH CLOUDS,   
IT SHOULD BE A COOL BUT PLEASANT NIGHT FOR TRICK-OR-TREATING WITH NO   
IMPACTS EXPECTED. A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SWIFTLY MOVE   
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY. AT   
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST   
AREA SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE   
IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT CONSENSUS IN DETERMINISTIC AND   
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA BY EARLY-MID   
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF   
THE 50S AS THICK CLOUD COVER AND MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION   
INFILTRATE THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND   
PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT   
PUSHES THROUGH. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AHEAD   
OF/ALONG THE FRONT AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THIS   
FRONT, WITH VERY LITTLE (IF ANY) IMPACTS. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS   
WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM SATURDAY EVENING INTO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.   
AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT,   
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. DID LOWER   
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WHAT GUIDANCE HAS. IF THE FORECAST   
VERIFIES, A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS   
OF NORTHEAST OK AND FAR NORTHWEST AR. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE   
THAT WIDESPREAD FROST WILL DEVELOP AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.   
ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL,   
OF THE FORECAST AREA.     
  
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AND   
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.   
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR AVERAGE BY MONDAY AND ABOVE AVERAGE   
BY TUESDAY. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BY MIDWEEK AND THE   
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND   
THURSDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS REACHING THE MID-UPPER 70S. RAIN   
CHANCES LOOK UNLIKELY SUNDAY-THURSDAY.  
  
MEJIA    
  
  
   
AVIATION  
  
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025  
  
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT  
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ONE  
EXCEPTION IS SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING NEAR NW AR SITES AND  
THOSE TERMINALS COULD BRIEFLY SEE REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OVER THE NEXT  
HOUR OR TWO. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUD WILL FILL OVER THE   
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.   
THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,   
BRINGING A SWITCH TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND CIGS LOWERING INTO   
THE LOW VFR RANGE. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE TOWARD   
THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE AFTER THIS   
TAF PERIOD AND LEFT OUT MENTION OF PRECIP FOR NOW.  
  
BOWLAN  
  
  
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
  
TUL   66  44  59  34 /   0  20  20   0   
FSM   67  46  63  37 /   0  10  20   0   
MLC   69  44  63  34 /   0  10  20   0   
BVO   66  40  57  29 /   0  20   0   0   
FYV   64  39  58  29 /   0  10  30   0   
BYV   64  42  56  33 /   0  10  30   0   
MKO   66  45  60  33 /   0  10  20   0   
MIO   64  42  56  32 /   0  20  10   0   
F10   67  43  61  32 /   0  10  20   0   
HHW   68  47  65  37 /   0  10  20   0   
  
  
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
OK...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ054>076.  
  
AR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARZ001-002-010-  
     011-019-020-029.  
  
  
  
  
  
SHORT TERM...67  
LONG TERM....67  
AVIATION...04  
 
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