336
FXUS64 KTSA 241140
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
640 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 637 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTING
HOWEVER TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVIEST
RAINS IS LESS CERTAIN.
- A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY HAS OVERTURNED THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION AND A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS SAMPLED AMPLE INSTABILITY UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ALREADY INTENSIFYING WITH THE MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED BACK ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
STORMS ONGOING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO
ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AND ESE AND APPROACH EASTERN OK
BY EARLY TO MID MORNING. WHILE TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION VARIES AMONGST GUIDANCE AS THE MCS TRACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION, THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR THE
COMPLEX TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH WAS
EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS
POSSIBLE AS THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION BECOMES
MORE CERTAIN.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE DEPARTING MCS FAVORS ANOTHER LULL IN
STORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER COMPLEX APPROACHES
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THIS TIME INFLUENCING A MORE EAST WEST
TRACK OF THIS STORM COMPLEX WITH PRECIP CHANCES ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
STORM COMPLEX AND ITS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN
THE OVERALL FOOTPRINT OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
WARM AND HUMID WITH STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT SHOULD THE SOUTHERN
FLANK AND/OR OUTFLOW BECOME A MORE DEFINED FOCUS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
SFC BOUNDARIES BECOME MORE ALIGNED WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY FRIDAY WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION. THE PROXIMITY OF FOCUSING BOUNDARIES WILL MAINTAIN STORM
CHANCES WITH SOME RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER, HOWEVER THE PATTERN WILL
BE TRANSITIONING TOWARD RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
WITH A DEEPENING WEST COAST TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN STATES.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
STRENGTHENING AND CENTERED EAST OF THE LOCAL REGION. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES
LIKELY TO DEVELOP DAILY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND
TOWARDS MVFR CEILINGS BY MID MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE DAY TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH STORMS POSSIBLY PERSISTING
INTO THIS EVENING AT KMLC. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
THIS EVENING, WITH RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 84 71 89 76 / 70 30 40 40
FSM 87 72 91 75 / 60 30 30 20
MLC 89 74 90 78 / 60 20 10 10
BVO 83 68 86 72 / 70 30 50 50
FYV 83 68 86 73 / 60 30 50 30
BYV 82 67 85 72 / 70 40 50 40
MKO 84 70 88 75 / 60 30 30 30
MIO 82 68 85 72 / 50 30 50 60
F10 86 71 89 76 / 70 30 20 20
HHW 89 73 91 76 / 40 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ049-053-055>057-
059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-254-354.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...05
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