531  
FXUS64 KTSA 011749  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
1249 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
- DAILY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS  
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS,  
DOWNBURST WINDS, AND LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.  
 
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THIS WEEK  
WITH HEAT INDICES GENERALLY 95-105 F ACROSS THE AREA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THROUGH TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
MORE PLEASANT SUMMER CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
COOLER TEMPERATURES (UPPER 80S) AND RESULTING HEAT INDICES THAN  
RECENTLY OBSERVED. STILL EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY  
THIS AFTERNOON WITH POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE ONLY  
EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE RED RIVER WHERE A SHOWER OR TWO MAY  
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. QUIET CONDITIONS  
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER  
60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS  
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS INTRODUCES  
A DAILY LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW  
ONWARD. THAT BEING SAID, PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED AND  
MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT  
FEW DAYS. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR LIMITED COVERAGE, POPS WILL  
REMAIN JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
STILL, IT IS RECOMMENDED TO WATCH FOR CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS  
OVER THE COMING DAYS AS STORM CHANCES ARE LOW, BUT NOT ZERO.  
 
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY ORIENTED OUT OF THE WEST-  
NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW MAY TEND  
TO ENHANCE SHOWER/ STORM CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO REMAIN LIMITED AT  
THIS TIME, BUT ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WOULD  
LIKELY HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY  
WINDS GIVEN HIGH PWATS. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS OVER THE  
HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST  
AND BE PREPARED TO ADJUST PLANS ACCORDINGLY IF HIGHER LIGHTNING OR  
SEVERE THREATS DEVELOP.  
 
ALONGSIDE THE RETURN OF MOISTURE THIS WEEK WILL BE A GRADUAL  
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED HEAT INDICES. BY LATE  
THIS WEEK, MOST OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX  
VALUES BETWEEN 90 TO 100 DEGREES F... CLIMBING BACK INTO THE  
95-105 F RANGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. PLEASE BE  
EXTRA MINDFUL OF TIME SPENT OUTDOORS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BE  
SURE TO HYDRATE AND TAKE BREAKS WHEN NEEDED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH PATCHY MVFR  
VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  
EXISTING FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AT MVFR HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN AT THAT  
COVERAGE, WITH LOWER CLOUDS DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME  
HEATING. DIURNAL LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD AGAIN BEGIN TO DEVELOP MID  
TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL, WITH A GENERAL  
TURN TOWARD MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTIONS TOMORROW.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 67 89 70 89 / 0 10 0 10  
FSM 71 91 71 91 / 0 10 0 10  
MLC 68 89 70 89 / 0 10 0 10  
BVO 64 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 10  
FYV 64 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 10  
BYV 64 88 65 90 / 0 0 0 10  
MKO 66 87 69 86 / 0 10 0 10  
MIO 64 87 65 89 / 0 0 0 10  
F10 66 86 69 86 / 0 10 0 10  
HHW 71 90 73 89 / 0 10 0 10  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...43  
LONG TERM....43  
AVIATION...22  
 
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