891
FXUS64 KTSA 281056
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
556 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 553 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY AID IN A DEEPER PLUME OF
MOISTURE THAT MAY SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
BEFORE OR AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BE SQUEEZED OUT FROM THIS PASSING WAVE, BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES
AND IMPACTS REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
AT THE SURFACE, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND DEEPENING LEE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED BUMP IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THIS SLIGHT INCREASE
IN WINDS WILL CAUSE LIMITED GRASSLAND FIRE SPREAD RATES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40 WHERE WINDS WILL BE
BREEZIEST. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 80F OR
LOWER 80S UNDERNEATH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
ABOVE-AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STORY THROUGH THURSDAY BENEATH BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, RUNNING ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF WEST TEXAS. MULTI-MODEL GUIDANCE, ALONG
WITH GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS, AND THE NBM DEPICT MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EASTWARD, INITIALLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE
DAYTIME FRIDAY, BEFORE SPREADING INTO FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE NBM CONTINUES TO
CARRY THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF POPS (40-70%) SATURDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING BY
SATURDAY EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS UNLIKELY, GIVEN
VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. IN FACT, THUNDER WILL BE HARD TO COME
BY THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
MAINLY STAY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD WAVE DEPARTS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING, A POTENTIALLY STRONGER, MORE
AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WHILE DETERMINISTIC RUNS AND OTHER GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SHOW CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN SPREAD REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING,
DEPTH, AND TRAJECTORY OF THIS SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN RENEWED, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK (MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME). GIVEN HIGH
MODEL/ENSEMBLE VARIANCE, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO NBM BASELINE POPS
(40-70%) FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A TRANSITION TO COOLER, MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. BROKEN MID CLOUD THIS MORNING ACROSS
NE OK WILL SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW CU DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN THE MOISTURE RETURN DOWN SOUTH AT KMLC. ASIDE FROM
THIS, CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK BY MID TO
LATE MORNING, WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AT THE NE OK SITES. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN THIS EVENING.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 83 61 85 62 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 85 58 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 82 60 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 82 57 84 57 / 10 0 0 10
FYV 80 54 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 80 59 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 82 59 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 80 59 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
F10 82 60 84 61 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 82 61 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30
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