523
FXUS64 KTSA 141655
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1155 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1152 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK.
- STORM CHANCES INCREASE AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.
- LOW-MEDIUM AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE OK. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED, BUT A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT, AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION, WITH
AT LEAST LOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES SPREADING INTO NW AR AND FAR E
OK. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AREAWIDE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE
VICINITY. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR FAR E OK AND NW AR ZONES. MOISTURE WILL HAVE
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY BY THIS TIME WITH PWATS NEAR OR EXCEEDING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE. GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY BE A CONCERN, AND LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN, BUT
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS UNLIKELY. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE
FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE LINGER IN THE REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN EXPANDS INTO
THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE RETURN OF INTENSE HEAT AS
TEMPERATURES RISE AND HUMIDITY REMAINS ELEVATED. THERE IS AT LEAST
LOW POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW VFR CEILINGS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH
ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE REMAINING BELOW MENTIONABLE COVERAGE.
SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO WESTERN AR LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AREA WIDE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. PERIODIC FLIGHT LEVEL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 72 90 72 91 / 10 30 10 10
FSM 73 89 71 91 / 30 80 30 20
MLC 70 88 70 90 / 10 50 20 10
BVO 68 90 69 91 / 0 20 10 10
FYV 69 86 67 87 / 20 80 30 50
BYV 68 85 67 86 / 20 70 30 60
MKO 70 87 70 89 / 10 60 10 10
MIO 70 90 69 89 / 10 50 20 30
F10 69 87 68 89 / 10 50 10 10
HHW 69 86 69 88 / 20 50 20 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07
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