342  
FXUS64 KTSA 282043  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
243 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THROUGH TONIGHT )  
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE WINDS TONIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING  
LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SET UP OVER  
THE REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. LATEST DATA CONTINUES  
TOP SUPPORT GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE IN A CORRIDOR FROM  
EAST CENTRAL OK INTO NORTHWEST AR LATER THIS EVENING INTO MUCH OF  
TUESDAY MORNING. LIKELY TO SEE 40-45 GUSTS AT RIDGETOP LEVELS OF  
SE OK AND NW AR AT THE VERY LEAST AND WILL BE FLIRTING WITH WIND  
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA N OF US 412 AND E OF US 75  
BASED ON FORECAST POSITION OF LOW LEVEL JET. PER COORDINATION  
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR  
NOW, BUT ONE COULD BE NEEDED FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  
 
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE  
NORTH AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN MUCH MILDER TEMPS OVERNIGHT. STRONG  
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME  
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK TOWARD SUNRISE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF  
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH DATA CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS  
ACROSS FAR EASTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. IF ANYTHING  
THUNDER PROBABILITES IN OUR AREA APPEAR LOWER FOR TUESDAY.  
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT FASTER WITH THE FRONT AS WELL, AND  
PATTERN OF PRE-FRONTAL VEERING/WEAKENING OF SFC WINDS NOT  
ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATUES  
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT WILL TURN  
SHARPLY COLDER WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF  
THE COLD AIRMASS WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW GUSTS NEAR  
40 OCCURRED FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER WAVE  
BRUSHES BY THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING, A FEW FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP  
NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER AS WELL.  
 
SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS NOTABLY  
LIGHTER DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER HOWEVER.  
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE  
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A QUICK WARMUP TAKING PLACE THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS RETURNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND  
FASTER WITH A FRONT LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EVOLUTION OF THE  
FORECAST AFTER THAT REMAINS CHALLENGING AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS  
NEARBY AND AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES. PRECIP CHANCES  
ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AND AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO  
BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS  
POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A  
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA, WILL ALSO MENTION LLWS  
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT THE  
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 52 69 27 46 / 0 0 10 0  
FSM 48 73 33 50 / 10 20 0 0  
MLC 51 71 29 47 / 10 0 0 0  
BVO 48 66 25 45 / 0 0 10 0  
FYV 47 70 26 45 / 0 10 10 0  
BYV 47 69 26 43 / 0 0 10 0  
MKO 50 70 27 45 / 0 0 0 0  
MIO 47 66 24 42 / 0 0 0 0  
F10 51 71 28 46 / 0 0 0 0  
HHW 49 72 33 49 / 10 10 0 0  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...14  
LONG TERM....14  
AVIATION...05  
 
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