504
FXUS64 KTSA 241139
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
639 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2018
AVIATION
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING, EXCEPT POSSIBLY AT
KBVO, WHERE VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL. PATCHY
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, MAINLY AT THE NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SITES. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH CEILINGS RISING TO VFR AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SITES. MVFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN PREVALENT AT KMLC
AND THE NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 412 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2018/
DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY, WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME FOG AND
DRIZZLE NOTED ACROSS NORTH TX AND LIKELY INTO SOUTHEAST OK. ZONE
OF ENHANCED LIFT EXTENDING FROM EAST TX THROUGH CENTRAL AR HAS
PRODUCED MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER, AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE STUBBORN TO ERODE AND
HIGH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS MAY STRUGGLE, BUT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER
THAN SUNDAY.
CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY BEING TO BREAK OUT ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WITHIN MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH VEERING AND MODESTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL
FLOW. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH MORE SUN, POSSIBLY NEAR 90 IN SOME
AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OK
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ALONG IT, THOUGH BETTER COVERAGE LIKELY REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST
CLOSER TO THE UPPER SUPPORT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH,
WITH GREATER CHANCES BECOMING FOCUSED MORE TO THE SOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER BEHIND THEE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY ROTATE AROUND
BASE OF TROUGH AND KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A NICE COOL EARLY FALL NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WARM BACK UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOW FULL
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. DRY FORECAST WILL BE
MAINTAINED UNTIL SUNDAY, BY WHICH TIME MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS AS DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AROUND WESTERN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE.
OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS
SUMMER IS JUST NOT QUITE READY TO LET GO DOWN HERE.
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
AVIATION.....05
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