470
FXUS64 KTSA 142342
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
642 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2020
AVIATION
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THOUGH WITH LIMITED COVERAGE FORECAST WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING IN THE TAFS. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. IN
RESPONSE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SOME POSSIBLE AFTERNOON FEW TO
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH AN EASTERLY
WIND FOR KFSM. WINDS WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BECOME BREEZY AGAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WITH MORE WEST TO VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 215 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2020/
DISCUSSION...
A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE OK/KS
BORDER ALONG AN ELEVATED MOISTURE GRADIENT AND ENHANCED WARM AIR
ADVECTION LOCATED AT THE 850MB LEVEL. CLOUDS FROM SINCE DECAYED
SHOWERS ALSO DOT PORTIONS OF E OK AND NW AR, BUT THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF CLOUDS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN OVER NE OK TODAY. AS
A RESULT, TEMPERATURES AT SOME LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW
TO RISE, BUT A WARM UP IS STILL EXPECTED FOR MOST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO NEAR 110 RANGE FOR MOST AREAS.
THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE BIG STORY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OBSERVED DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
HIGHER THAN MODEL FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS MOST LIKELY
THANKS TO RECENT HEAVY RAINS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT,
DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HEAT HEADLINES IN SOME SHAPE OR FORM WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEK. IN FACT, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
FOR PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON (MAYBE TO AROUND HIGHWAY 412) AND WILL
LIKELY STALL THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, OUR CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST DURING MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG THE INITIAL PUSH OF THE FRONT INTO THE
AREA AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY ON OR NEAR THE FRONT.
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE BOTH DAYS WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS
WILL ALSO BRING A MORE THAN WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR
SOME. FOR OTHERS, IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND MUGGY.
THE WEAK FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR HOT,
HUMID, AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SOME AND PERSIST FOR
EVERYONE ELSE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS
WEEKEND AND WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE US. THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE PRACTICALLY OVERHEAD BY THIS WEEKEND. IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO HAVE POP UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITHIN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS, BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
SNIDER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 78 96 75 95 / 20 20 10 20
FSM 76 98 75 98 / 10 10 10 10
MLC 78 97 75 95 / 10 10 10 0
BVO 75 92 73 93 / 20 20 10 20
FYV 75 93 73 93 / 10 10 10 20
BYV 74 95 73 95 / 10 20 10 20
MKO 77 96 75 94 / 10 10 10 10
MIO 75 93 73 94 / 20 20 10 20
F10 77 96 74 93 / 20 10 10 10
HHW 78 98 76 96 / 10 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
070>076.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
060>062-064>067-070>076.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.
AVIATION.....20
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