638
FXUS64 KTSA 160445
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1045 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
- LOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
- INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHERE HEAVIER RAINS
FELL ON SATURDAY. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AS HIGHS RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 70S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BECOME ELEVATED FOR
A TIME MONDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS DRIER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT MISSED OUT ON WETTING RAINFALL. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE 30 PERCENT HOWEVER,
WHICH SHOULD TEMPER THE THREAT SOMEWHAT.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY ON TUESDAY, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ONE INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT FULL MIXING AND KEEP WINDS
AND TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL
ON TUESDAY. BUT, ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST IN THE 35 MPH RANGE AND
FINE FUELS DRY OUT.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY,
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...DROPPING HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO BE NOT AS STRONG ON THOSE DAYS, BUT STILL
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MENTION IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT IF EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER, NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR
LATE WEEK. A REINFORCING FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW RAIN/THUNDER
CHANCES WILL ALSO RE-ENTER THE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS POINT.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL FORECAST SITES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AND CALM TO
VERY LIGHT WINDS. LATE TONIGHT, THERE IS LOW POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG SERN OK AND NWRN AR SITES, WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING
MONDAY. A FEW LOW CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FOG, ESPECIALLY
MLC/FSM AREAS. SOUTH WIND BECOMES GUSTY MOST SITES BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
CORRESPONDING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ERN OK AND NWNR AR
TIGHTENS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 43 75 54 74 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 41 74 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 42 72 53 73 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 38 75 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 39 71 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 39 71 49 70 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 41 72 51 72 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 41 72 51 71 / 0 0 0 0
F10 41 74 53 73 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 41 70 50 71 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...69
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