466
FXUS64 KTSA 032328
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
628 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
- LOWER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE RETURN TO MAINTAIN
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT AN OCCASIONAL
STRONG AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ALMOST EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OK FROM ACTIVITY
THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT DUE TO A REMNANT MCV. THE REMNANT MCV
CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM IN ITS VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
FOCUSED ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN OK. NOT ANTICIPATING
ANYTHING SEVERE OR ANYTHING LIKE THE FLOODING SEEN YESTERDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AT THIS TIME, BUT ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
BRIEFLY DEVELOP IF STORMS INITIATE BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST
REGION AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS, RIDGING WILL STILL HAVE A BIG
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH
MOSTLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER FORECAST. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, GENERALLY MID-UPPER 60S,
UNDERNEATH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
OVER THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL WAVES WILL IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY AND CAUSE DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PINCH OFF ITS PARENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY; EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR WILL REMAIN ON ITS SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAYTIME AS THE WAVE SLOWLY PASSES TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS
WEAK, SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT A CONCERN, BUT MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT TIMES INCREASING FLOODING
CONCERNS.
AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO WILL SLOWLY START LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS WEST TX ON FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, IT WILL
SEND ANOTHER LOBE OF VORTICITY DOWNSTREAM AND INTO THE AREA,
CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
FRIDAY AS FLOW ALOFT STAYS WEAK AND KEEPS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
LOW. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
FURTHER INCREASE, WITH WIDER COVERAGE AND MORE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOMENTS. LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE POTENT UPPER LOW MOVES OVER WESTERN
OK AND EVENTUALLY OVER KS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
MORE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AND
INTO MONDAY, BUT STILL THINK THAT HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE
DETAILS TO COME. BEYOND MONDAY, GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS IN A STOUT RIDGE AND WOULD LIKELY
KEEP PRECIPITATION LOW OR VERY LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A VERY WAVY PATTERN ACROSS OK AND AR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING IN A RIDGE.
A PLETHORA OF CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP BOTH DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS VERY SIMILAR EACH DAY/NIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MOST DAYS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S
OR LOWER 70S. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER RISE.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO MID MORNING WITH A LOW
COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW CLOUDS W/ MVFR CEILINGS
MAY SPREAD INTO SE OK BY EARLY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
HOW WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED THE LOWER CEILINGS WOULD BE.
OTHERWISE A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD W/ LOW VFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED
WITH INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK INTO WESTERN AR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 68 85 70 85 / 0 20 10 20
FSM 68 84 69 87 / 0 50 20 40
MLC 69 85 70 86 / 10 40 10 30
BVO 65 85 68 85 / 0 20 10 20
FYV 66 82 68 84 / 0 40 10 30
BYV 62 81 66 83 / 0 30 10 40
MKO 67 83 68 84 / 0 40 20 30
MIO 65 85 68 85 / 0 20 10 20
F10 66 84 68 84 / 0 20 10 20
HHW 70 82 69 83 / 10 60 30 40
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07
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