195
UXUS97 KGJT 021307
SRGGJT
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION, COLORADO
607 AM MST FRIDAY, JANUARY 2, 2026
THIS FORECAST IS FOR FRIDAY, JANUARY 2, 2026:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 52.8 F/11.5 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... POOR
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 0 FT/MIN (0.0 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 8254 FT MSL (2647 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 46.0 F/8.2 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... NONE
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ NONE
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... BROKEN/OVERCAST OPAQUE MIDDLE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 6774 FT MSL (1167 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY 01/03..... POOR
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. NOT AVAILABLE
REMARKS...
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 07:33:34 / 17:03:03 MST
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 9 HR 29 MIN 29 SEC (569 MIN 29 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 12:18:18 MST... 27.88 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION TAKEN ON 01/02/2026 AT 0500 MST
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 5627 FT MSL (20 FT AGL)
ADDITIONAL FREEZING LEVEL....... 8161 FT MSL (2554 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 16149 FT MSL (10542 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 9983 FT MSL (4377 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... +10.1
K INDEX......................... -0.9
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.8 -82.8 265 45 23 2.4 1.3 M M M M M
45000 -60.4 -76.7 265 59 30 -0.3 -0.2 M M M M M
40000 -60.8 -77.4 280 65 34 -0.3 -0.2 M M M M M
38000 -58.7 -73.7 285 67 34 5.8 3.2 M M M M M
36000 -55.2 -67.4 285 66 34 5.8 3.2 M M M M M
34000 -50.7 -59.3 285 63 32 8.4 4.6 M M M M M
32000 -45.7 -50.3 280 54 28 8.4 4.6 M M M M M
30000 -40.9 -41.6 280 48 25 7.4 4.1 34.3 93.8 20.0 M M
29000 -38.6 -37.5 280 46 24 7.5 4.1 33.4 92.0 19.6 M M
28000 -36.4 -33.5 280 45 23 7.5 4.1 32.5 90.6 19.1 M M
27000 -34.2 -29.6 280 44 22 8.0 4.4 31.8 89.2 18.8 M M
26000 -31.8 -25.2 280 43 22 7.9 4.3 31.0 87.8 18.4 M M
25000 -29.4 -20.9 280 42 22 7.9 4.4 30.3 86.6 18.0 M M
24000 -27.1 -16.8 280 42 21 7.5 4.1 29.7 85.5 17.7 M M
23000 -24.9 -12.8 280 40 20 7.4 4.0 28.8 83.8 17.1 M M
22000 -22.7 -8.9 280 38 19 7.4 4.0 27.9 82.2 16.6 M M
21000 -20.4 -4.7 280 36 18 8.4 4.6 27.2 81.0 16.2 M M
20000 -17.9 -0.2 280 34 18 8.3 4.6 26.6 79.9 15.9 M M
19500 -16.1 3.0 285 33 17 8.3 4.6 26.3 79.3 15.8 M M
19000 -14.8 5.4 285 33 17 8.3 4.6 26.1 78.9 15.7 M M
18500 -13.6 7.5 285 32 16 8.4 4.6 25.8 78.5 15.5 M M
18000 -12.3 9.9 285 31 16 8.4 4.6 25.6 78.1 15.4 M M
17500 -11.1 12.0 285 30 16 7.6 4.2 25.3 77.6 15.3 M M
17000 -10.0 14.0 285 29 15 7.4 4.1 24.9 76.8 15.0 M M
16500 -8.9 16.0 290 28 15 7.1 3.9 24.5 76.2 14.7 M M
16000 -7.9 17.8 285 27 14 6.4 3.5 24.0 75.2 14.3 M M
15500 -6.9 19.6 285 26 14 6.5 3.5 23.4 74.2 13.9 M M
15000 -6.1 21.0 285 25 13 4.9 2.7 22.7 72.9 13.3 M M
14500 -5.4 22.3 285 24 12 5.0 2.8 22.0 71.5 12.7 M M
14000 -4.6 23.7 285 23 12 5.6 3.1 21.2 70.2 12.1 M M
13500 -3.8 25.2 280 22 11 5.6 3.1 20.5 69.0 11.5 M M
13000 -3.0 26.6 280 20 10 4.6 2.5 19.8 67.7 10.9 M M
12500 -2.4 27.7 275 19 10 4.3 2.4 18.9 66.1 10.1 M M
12000 -1.8 28.8 270 17 9 3.1 1.7 18.0 64.4 9.3 M M
11500 -1.4 29.5 265 15 8 2.7 1.5 16.9 62.3 8.2 M M
11000 -1.1 30.0 260 13 7 1.8 1.0 15.7 60.3 7.1 M M
10500 -0.9 30.4 255 12 6 1.2 0.7 14.4 57.9 5.9 M M
10250 -0.9 30.4 250 11 6 2.6 1.4 13.7 56.7 5.2 M M
10000 -0.7 30.7 245 10 5 2.6 1.4 13.2 55.8 4.7 M M
9750 -0.6 30.9 240 9 5 1.2 0.6 12.6 54.6 4.1 M M
9500 -0.5 31.1 235 8 4 2.1 1.1 11.9 53.5 3.4 M M
9250 -0.4 31.3 230 8 4 0.1 0.0 11.3 52.3 2.8 M M
9000 -0.5 31.1 220 7 4 -0.0 -0.0 10.5 50.8 2.0 M M
8750 -0.4 31.3 210 6 3 2.0 1.1 9.8 49.7 1.4 M M
8500 -0.3 31.5 195 6 3 0.9 0.5 9.2 48.5 0.7 M M
8250 -0.2 31.6 180 6 3 3.7 2.0 8.6 47.4 0.1 M M
8000 0.1 32.2 165 7 3 4.0 2.2 8.2 46.7 -0.3 222 1.1
7750 0.3 32.5 160 7 4 1.4 0.8 7.6 45.7 -0.9 210 1.1
7500 0.4 32.7 155 8 4 2.6 1.4 7.0 44.6 -1.5 199 1.0
7250 0.7 33.3 150 9 4 4.2 2.3 6.5 43.7 -1.9 184 0.9
7000 1.0 33.8 150 9 5 3.8 2.1 6.1 43.0 -2.3 167 0.8
6750 1.2 34.2 145 9 5 2.7 1.5 5.6 42.1 -2.9 153 0.8
6500 1.4 34.5 140 9 5 1.9 1.1 5.0 41.1 -3.4 140 0.7
6250 1.5 34.7 135 8 4 -0.7 -0.4 4.4 39.8 -4.1 131 0.7
6000 1.5 34.7 130 7 4 4.6 2.5 3.7 38.6 -4.8 122 0.6
5750 2.0 35.6 125 7 3 2.7 1.5 3.4 38.1 -5.1 101 0.5
5500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
5250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
01/02/2026 AT 0800 MST | 01/02/2026 AT 1100 MST
|
CAPE... +0.3 LI... +1.4 | CAPE... +0.9 LI... +3.1
CINH... -0.2 K INDEX... +22.3 | CINH... -0.0 K INDEX... +17.7
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -61.3 -78.3 280 36 18 2.5 1.4 | -60.8 -77.4 275 37 19 2.8 1.5
45000 -57.3 -71.1 275 37 19 2.9 1.6 | -56.6 -69.9 275 40 21 1.9 1.0
40000 -52.8 -63.0 280 35 18 3.0 1.7 | -54.5 -66.1 290 41 21 1.4 0.8
38000 -51.1 -60.0 285 33 17 2.8 1.5 | -53.2 -63.8 295 41 21 3.0 1.7
36000 -49.4 -56.9 290 30 16 2.8 1.5 | -51.1 -60.0 300 40 20 3.0 1.7
34000 -47.5 -53.5 290 26 14 3.1 1.7 | -49.1 -56.4 305 38 19 4.7 2.6
32000 -45.7 -50.3 295 18 9 3.0 1.7 | -46.4 -51.5 310 31 16 4.6 2.5
30000 -43.8 -46.8 295 10 5 4.1 2.2 | -43.5 -46.3 315 25 13 5.6 3.1
29000 -42.6 -44.7 295 9 5 4.0 2.2 | -41.9 -43.4 320 25 13 5.5 3.0
28000 -41.4 -42.5 295 8 4 4.0 2.2 | -40.2 -40.4 325 24 12 5.5 3.0
27000 -40.2 -40.4 295 8 4 3.8 2.1 | -38.5 -37.3 330 24 12 5.8 3.2
26000 -38.0 -36.4 285 9 5 8.4 4.6 | -36.4 -33.5 325 23 12 7.6 4.2
25000 -35.5 -31.9 270 11 6 8.4 4.6 | -34.1 -29.4 320 22 11 7.6 4.2
24000 -33.0 -27.4 265 14 7 8.4 4.6 | -31.9 -25.4 315 20 11 7.5 4.1
23000 -30.5 -22.9 260 15 8 8.7 4.8 | -29.5 -21.1 315 20 10 8.2 4.5
22000 -27.9 -18.2 265 15 8 8.7 4.8 | -26.4 -15.5 310 21 11 8.2 4.5
21000 -24.7 -12.5 265 16 8 7.7 4.2 | -24.0 -11.2 305 21 11 7.8 4.3
20000 -22.5 -8.5 270 17 8 7.4 4.1 | -21.7 -7.1 310 22 11 7.8 4.3
19500 -21.4 -6.5 275 17 9 7.4 4.1 | -20.5 -4.9 310 22 12 7.8 4.3
19000 -20.3 -4.5 275 17 9 7.4 4.1 | -19.4 -2.9 310 23 12 7.8 4.3
18500 -19.2 -2.6 280 18 9 7.2 4.0 | -18.2 -0.8 310 23 12 7.5 4.1
18000 -18.2 -0.8 280 18 9 7.1 3.9 | -17.1 1.2 310 23 12 7.3 4.0
17500 -17.1 1.2 285 19 10 7.1 3.9 | -16.1 3.0 315 23 12 7.2 4.0
17000 -16.1 3.0 285 19 10 6.8 3.7 | -15.1 4.8 315 22 11 6.6 3.6
16500 -15.1 4.8 290 20 10 6.9 3.8 | -14.1 6.6 320 21 11 6.7 3.7
16000 -14.1 6.6 290 20 10 6.6 3.6 | -13.2 8.2 320 21 11 6.2 3.4
15500 -13.2 8.2 290 20 11 6.6 3.6 | -12.3 9.9 325 20 10 6.2 3.4
15000 -12.2 10.0 290 21 11 6.5 3.6 | -11.4 11.5 325 20 10 5.8 3.2
14500 -11.3 11.7 290 21 11 6.4 3.5 | -10.6 12.9 325 19 10 5.7 3.1
14000 -10.3 13.5 290 21 11 6.5 3.5 | -9.7 14.5 325 19 10 5.7 3.1
13500 -9.4 15.1 290 21 11 6.5 3.6 | -8.9 16.0 320 19 10 5.7 3.1
13000 -8.5 16.7 290 21 11 6.4 3.5 | -8.1 17.4 320 18 9 5.7 3.1
12500 -7.6 18.3 290 22 11 5.9 3.2 | -7.2 19.0 315 18 9 5.8 3.2
12000 -6.7 19.9 290 22 11 6.0 3.3 | -6.4 20.5 310 17 9 5.7 3.1
11500 -5.8 21.6 290 22 11 6.1 3.3 | -5.6 21.9 310 17 9 5.4 2.9
11000 -4.9 23.2 290 22 11 6.0 3.3 | -4.9 23.2 305 16 8 5.2 2.9
10500 -4.2 24.4 285 22 11 5.3 2.9 | -4.2 24.4 300 16 8 4.6 2.5
10250 -3.8 25.2 285 22 11 4.7 2.6 | -3.9 25.0 300 16 8 4.5 2.5
10000 -3.4 25.9 285 22 11 7.4 4.1 | -3.5 25.7 300 16 8 4.9 2.7
9750 -2.8 27.0 280 21 11 7.2 4.0 | -3.2 26.2 295 15 8 4.7 2.6
9500 -2.4 27.7 275 20 10 4.2 2.3 | -2.9 26.8 290 15 8 4.1 2.3
9250 -2.1 28.2 275 20 10 5.3 2.9 | -2.6 27.3 285 15 8 4.4 2.4
9000 -1.7 28.9 270 19 10 4.2 2.3 | -2.3 27.9 285 14 7 3.8 2.1
8750 -1.5 29.3 270 19 10 4.0 2.2 | -2.0 28.4 280 14 7 3.0 1.7
8500 -1.1 30.0 270 18 9 4.6 2.5 | -1.8 28.8 275 13 7 3.0 1.7
8250 -0.8 30.6 265 17 9 4.4 2.4 | -1.3 29.7 270 13 7 4.1 2.3
8000 -0.5 31.1 265 16 8 4.2 2.3 | -1.0 30.2 270 13 7 5.7 3.1
7750 0.1 32.2 265 14 7 3.9 2.1 | -0.5 31.1 270 12 6 6.8 3.7
7500 0.3 32.5 265 11 6 3.4 1.8 | -0.1 31.8 270 11 6 5.6 3.1
7250 0.5 32.9 265 10 5 1.8 1.0 | 0.3 32.5 270 12 6 3.7 2.0
7000 0.7 33.3 270 9 4 3.5 1.9 | 0.6 33.1 270 12 6 6.6 3.6
6750 1.0 33.8 270 7 4 5.3 2.9 | 1.2 34.2 275 10 5 7.9 4.3
6500 1.4 34.5 270 5 3 4.9 2.7 | 1.6 34.9 280 8 4 4.7 2.6
6250 1.8 35.2 280 5 2 4.6 2.5 | 1.9 35.4 290 7 3 3.2 1.7
6000 2.1 35.8 285 4 2 6.3 3.5 | 2.2 36.0 300 5 3 6.2 3.4
5750 2.6 36.7 290 3 2 5.9 3.2 | 2.9 37.2 295 4 2 13.1 7.2
5500 2.2 36.0 295 3 1 -26.4 -14.5 | 3.7 38.7 315 4 2 3.0 1.7
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
01/02/2026 AT 1400 MST | 01/02/2026 AT 1700 MST
|
CAPE... +5.2 LI... +4.1 | CAPE... +1.1 LI... +4.5
CINH... -0.6 K INDEX... +15.7 | CINH... -0.2 K INDEX... +13.3
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -61.0 -77.8 275 36 19 2.8 1.6 | -61.8 -79.2 275 37 19 2.7 1.5
45000 -56.8 -70.2 275 40 21 1.2 0.6 | -57.8 -72.0 285 43 22 0.3 0.1
40000 -56.1 -69.0 295 49 25 0.5 0.3 | -58.4 -73.1 300 55 28 -0.4 -0.2
38000 -55.0 -67.0 300 52 27 3.1 1.7 | -57.1 -70.8 305 62 32 4.4 2.4
36000 -52.9 -63.2 305 56 29 3.1 1.7 | -54.2 -65.6 305 70 36 4.4 2.4
34000 -50.6 -59.1 310 59 30 5.9 3.2 | -51.0 -59.8 310 74 38 7.3 4.0
32000 -47.0 -52.6 310 58 30 5.9 3.3 | -46.6 -51.9 310 71 36 7.4 4.1
30000 -43.4 -46.1 310 55 28 6.4 3.5 | -42.1 -43.8 315 67 34 7.6 4.1
29000 -41.5 -42.7 310 51 26 6.4 3.5 | -39.9 -39.8 315 64 33 7.5 4.1
28000 -39.6 -39.3 310 47 24 6.4 3.5 | -37.6 -35.7 315 61 31 7.5 4.1
27000 -37.6 -35.7 310 43 22 7.1 3.9 | -35.4 -31.7 315 58 30 7.0 3.8
26000 -35.2 -31.4 315 42 21 8.2 4.5 | -33.4 -28.1 315 53 27 6.7 3.7
25000 -32.8 -27.0 315 40 21 8.2 4.5 | -31.4 -24.5 310 49 25 6.7 3.7
24000 -30.3 -22.5 315 39 20 8.2 4.5 | -29.4 -20.9 310 44 23 7.0 3.9
23000 -27.9 -18.2 320 37 19 8.4 4.6 | -27.0 -16.6 310 41 21 8.1 4.5
22000 -24.7 -12.5 320 34 18 8.4 4.6 | -24.0 -11.2 310 38 20 8.2 4.5
21000 -22.3 -8.1 320 33 17 7.3 4.0 | -21.6 -6.9 310 36 18 7.6 4.1
20000 -20.1 -4.2 320 31 16 7.4 4.1 | -19.3 -2.7 310 34 18 7.6 4.2
19500 -19.0 -2.2 320 30 16 7.4 4.1 | -18.2 -0.8 310 33 17 7.6 4.2
19000 -17.9 -0.2 320 29 15 7.5 4.1 | -17.1 1.2 310 32 17 7.7 4.2
18500 -16.9 1.6 320 29 15 6.7 3.7 | -16.0 3.2 310 31 16 7.4 4.0
18000 -15.9 3.4 320 28 14 6.6 3.6 | -14.9 5.2 310 30 16 7.3 4.0
17500 -14.9 5.2 320 27 14 6.6 3.6 | -13.8 7.2 310 29 15 7.1 3.9
17000 -14.0 6.8 320 26 13 6.6 3.6 | -12.8 9.0 310 28 15 6.6 3.6
16500 -13.0 8.6 320 25 13 6.7 3.7 | -11.9 10.6 310 27 14 6.6 3.6
16000 -12.1 10.2 315 24 12 5.8 3.2 | -10.9 12.4 310 26 13 6.1 3.4
15500 -11.2 11.8 315 22 11 6.0 3.3 | -10.0 14.0 315 25 13 6.2 3.4
15000 -10.4 13.3 315 21 11 5.1 2.8 | -9.2 15.4 315 24 12 5.3 2.9
14500 -9.7 14.5 315 19 10 4.9 2.7 | -8.4 16.9 315 22 12 5.2 2.8
14000 -9.0 15.8 315 18 9 4.9 2.7 | -7.7 18.1 315 21 11 4.9 2.7
13500 -8.2 17.2 310 17 9 4.9 2.7 | -7.0 19.4 315 20 10 4.7 2.6
13000 -7.5 18.5 310 16 8 4.9 2.7 | -6.3 20.7 315 18 9 4.6 2.5
12500 -6.8 19.8 310 16 8 5.0 2.7 | -5.7 21.7 315 17 9 4.4 2.4
12000 -6.1 21.0 305 15 8 5.0 2.7 | -5.1 22.8 310 15 8 4.3 2.4
11500 -5.4 22.3 305 15 8 5.0 2.8 | -4.5 23.9 310 14 7 4.2 2.3
11000 -4.7 23.5 305 15 8 4.8 2.6 | -3.9 25.0 305 13 6 4.1 2.3
10500 -4.1 24.6 300 14 7 4.4 2.4 | -3.3 26.1 305 11 6 4.0 2.2
10250 -3.7 25.3 300 14 7 4.4 2.4 | -3.0 26.6 300 11 5 4.0 2.2
10000 -3.4 25.9 295 13 7 4.2 2.3 | -2.7 27.1 300 10 5 4.2 2.3
9750 -3.1 26.4 295 13 7 4.5 2.5 | -2.4 27.7 295 10 5 4.2 2.3
9500 -2.8 27.0 295 12 6 5.0 2.8 | -2.1 28.2 290 9 4 4.1 2.2
9250 -2.4 27.7 290 11 6 4.9 2.7 | -1.8 28.8 285 8 4 4.2 2.3
9000 -2.1 28.2 285 10 5 4.2 2.3 | -1.5 29.3 275 7 4 4.5 2.5
8750 -1.8 28.8 275 10 5 3.6 2.0 | -1.2 29.8 270 7 3 4.0 2.2
8500 -1.6 29.1 275 9 5 3.6 2.0 | -1.0 30.2 260 6 3 3.5 1.9
8250 -1.3 29.7 265 8 4 4.1 2.3 | -0.7 30.7 250 5 3 3.6 1.9
8000 -0.5 31.1 265 8 4 5.5 3.0 | -0.2 31.6 250 5 2 4.2 2.3
7750 -0.2 31.6 265 8 4 5.3 2.9 | 0.1 32.2 250 4 2 5.1 2.8
7500 0.2 32.4 270 7 4 4.9 2.7 | 0.5 32.9 250 3 1 4.7 2.6
7250 0.5 32.9 275 7 3 3.6 2.0 | 0.8 33.4 250 2 1 4.0 2.2
7000 0.8 33.4 280 6 3 6.1 3.3 | 1.1 34.0 255 1 1 6.1 3.4
6750 1.4 34.5 285 5 3 8.3 4.6 | 1.7 35.1 255 1 0 8.2 4.5
6500 2.0 35.6 295 4 2 7.9 4.4 | 2.2 36.0 000 0 0 7.5 4.1
6250 2.5 36.5 310 4 2 7.8 4.3 | 2.8 37.0 015 1 0 8.0 4.4
6000 3.1 37.6 325 3 2 8.9 4.9 | 3.4 38.1 030 1 1 6.7 3.7
5750 3.9 39.0 320 3 1 13.4 7.3 | 3.7 38.7 015 1 0 2.8 1.5
5500 5.1 41.2 335 3 2 16.1 8.8 | 3.9 39.0 015 1 1 4.2 2.3
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN AT WALKER FIELD IN GRAND
JUNCTION, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 07 MIN 00.001 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 108 DEG 31 MIN 59.998 SEC
ELEVATION: 4839 FEET (1475 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPE OF
COLORADO. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS
DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO DATA WHICH APPEAR
TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
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