513
UXUS97 KGJT 171306
SRGGJT
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION, COLORADO
706 AM MDT WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 17, 2025
THIS FORECAST IS FOR WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 17, 2025:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 67.1 F/19.5 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... EXCELLENT
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 884 FT/MIN (4.5 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 16268 FT MSL (10660 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 80.0 F/27.1 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 1015 MDT
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ NONE
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... NONE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 14049 FT MSL (8442 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY 09/18..... EXCELLENT
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. NOT AVAILABLE
REMARKS...
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 06:57:52 / 19:19:03 MDT
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 12 HR 21 MIN 10 SEC (741 MIN 10 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 13:08:28 MDT... 52.76 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION TAKEN ON 09/17/2025 AT 0600 MDT
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 13095 FT MSL (7487 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 17333 FT MSL (11725 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 16887 FT MSL (11279 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... +0.0
K INDEX......................... +8.3
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -62.0 -79.6 305 34 18 2.4 1.3 M M M M M
45000 -57.8 -72.0 305 49 25 4.0 2.2 M M M M M
40000 -51.8 -61.2 305 58 30 5.1 2.8 M M M M M
38000 -48.5 -55.3 305 56 29 5.5 3.0 M M M M M
36000 -44.7 -48.5 305 54 28 5.5 3.0 M M M M M
34000 -41.0 -41.8 310 50 26 6.4 3.5 M M M M M
32000 -37.2 -35.0 320 46 24 6.4 3.5 M M M M M
30000 -33.6 -28.5 325 41 21 5.9 3.2 42.1 107.8 11.7 M M
29000 -31.8 -25.2 330 39 20 5.9 3.2 40.6 105.0 10.7 M M
28000 -30.0 -22.0 330 36 19 5.8 3.2 39.2 102.6 9.8 M M
27000 -28.2 -18.8 335 34 17 6.4 3.5 37.8 100.1 8.8 M M
26000 -26.3 -15.3 335 32 16 6.4 3.5 36.5 97.7 7.8 M M
25000 -24.3 -11.7 340 30 15 6.5 3.5 35.3 95.6 7.0 M M
24000 -22.2 -8.0 340 28 14 7.8 4.3 34.3 93.8 6.2 M M
23000 -19.9 -3.8 340 26 14 7.8 4.3 33.6 92.5 5.7 M M
22000 -17.5 0.5 340 25 13 7.9 4.3 33.0 91.3 5.2 M M
21000 -14.7 5.5 335 23 12 7.2 3.9 31.9 89.4 4.4 M M
20000 -12.6 9.3 330 22 11 7.2 4.0 31.0 87.8 3.7 M M
19500 -11.5 11.3 330 21 11 7.2 4.0 30.6 87.1 3.3 M M
19000 -10.4 13.3 325 21 11 7.6 4.2 30.2 86.4 3.0 M M
18500 -9.3 15.3 325 20 10 7.6 4.2 29.8 85.7 2.7 M M
18000 -8.2 17.2 325 19 10 7.1 3.9 29.5 85.1 2.4 M M
17500 -7.3 18.9 325 18 9 5.0 2.8 28.8 83.8 1.7 M M
17000 -6.6 20.1 325 17 9 5.2 2.8 28.0 82.4 1.0 M M
16500 -5.8 21.6 320 16 8 4.5 2.5 27.2 80.9 0.3 M M
16000 -5.2 22.6 320 16 8 4.5 2.5 26.3 79.3 -0.5 863 4.4
15500 -4.6 23.7 320 15 8 5.4 3.0 25.4 77.8 -1.3 828 4.2
15000 -3.7 25.3 315 15 8 6.1 3.3 24.8 76.7 -2.0 788 4.0
14500 -2.8 27.0 315 14 7 6.4 3.5 24.2 75.6 -2.6 747 3.8
14000 -1.8 28.8 320 14 7 7.0 3.9 23.7 74.7 -3.1 702 3.6
13500 -0.8 30.6 320 13 7 7.0 3.8 23.3 73.9 -3.5 657 3.3
13000 0.2 32.4 325 12 6 7.0 3.8 22.8 73.1 -4.0 611 3.1
12500 1.2 34.2 330 11 6 7.0 3.9 22.4 72.3 -4.4 566 2.9
12000 2.2 36.0 335 10 5 6.8 3.7 21.9 71.5 -4.9 521 2.6
11500 3.2 37.8 345 9 5 6.9 3.8 21.5 70.7 -5.4 477 2.4
11000 4.2 39.6 355 8 4 7.1 3.9 21.0 69.8 -5.9 432 2.2
10500 5.2 41.4 360 8 4 8.7 4.8 20.6 69.0 -6.4 387 2.0
10250 6.0 42.8 010 8 4 9.4 5.1 20.6 69.1 -6.4 358 1.8
10000 6.5 43.7 015 8 4 7.5 4.1 20.4 68.8 -6.6 332 1.7
9750 7.1 44.8 015 8 4 8.3 4.6 20.3 68.5 -6.7 307 1.6
9500 7.7 45.9 020 8 4 6.7 3.7 20.2 68.3 -6.9 282 1.4
9250 8.2 46.8 025 9 5 6.7 3.7 19.9 67.8 -7.2 261 1.3
9000 8.8 47.8 030 9 5 8.2 4.5 19.7 67.5 -7.4 237 1.2
8750 9.3 48.7 030 9 5 7.9 4.3 19.6 67.2 -7.5 212 1.1
8500 9.9 49.8 035 9 5 7.6 4.2 19.4 67.0 -7.7 187 1.0
8250 10.4 50.7 040 9 5 6.4 3.5 19.2 66.6 -7.9 165 0.8
8000 10.8 51.4 040 10 5 5.9 3.2 18.9 66.1 -8.3 145 0.7
7750 11.3 52.3 045 9 5 6.1 3.4 18.7 65.6 -8.6 124 0.6
7500 11.7 53.1 045 9 5 5.7 3.1 18.4 65.1 -8.9 104 0.5
7250 12.1 53.8 050 9 5 5.2 2.8 18.0 64.5 -9.3 85 0.4
7000 12.4 54.3 050 9 5 4.8 2.6 17.7 63.8 -9.7 67 0.3
6750 12.7 54.9 055 9 4 3.5 1.9 17.3 63.1 -10.1 51 0.3
6500 12.9 55.2 055 8 4 -0.1 -0.1 16.7 62.0 -10.8 39 0.2
6250 12.7 54.9 060 8 4 -4.4 -2.4 15.7 60.3 -11.7 38 0.2
6000 12.5 54.5 065 8 4 3.4 1.9 14.8 58.7 -12.6 36 0.2
5750 12.9 55.2 070 7 3 0.0 0.0 14.5 58.1 -13.0 17 0.1
5500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
5250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
09/17/2025 AT 0900 MDT | 09/17/2025 AT 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.3 | CAPE... +0.1 LI... +2.9
CINH... -0.2 K INDEX... +11.9 | CINH... -1.2 K INDEX... +12.8
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -59.9 -75.8 310 25 13 2.6 1.4 | -59.9 -75.8 305 27 14 1.9 1.0
45000 -55.7 -68.3 310 39 20 3.2 1.8 | -56.4 -69.5 305 44 23 3.8 2.1
40000 -50.6 -59.1 305 61 32 4.6 2.5 | -50.4 -58.7 305 60 31 4.6 2.5
38000 -48.0 -54.4 300 66 34 4.5 2.4 | -47.7 -53.9 300 65 34 4.5 2.5
36000 -45.3 -49.5 300 70 36 4.5 2.4 | -45.0 -49.0 295 70 36 4.5 2.5
34000 -42.7 -44.9 300 64 33 4.3 2.4 | -42.2 -44.0 295 67 35 4.7 2.6
32000 -40.1 -40.2 295 54 28 4.3 2.3 | -39.4 -38.9 295 60 31 4.7 2.6
30000 -36.8 -34.2 295 46 24 6.2 3.4 | -36.4 -33.5 295 50 26 5.3 2.9
29000 -35.0 -31.0 295 43 22 6.2 3.4 | -34.8 -30.6 290 45 23 5.3 2.9
28000 -33.1 -27.6 295 40 21 6.1 3.3 | -33.2 -27.8 290 39 20 5.2 2.8
27000 -31.0 -23.8 295 39 20 7.7 4.2 | -31.2 -24.2 290 37 19 7.7 4.2
26000 -28.6 -19.5 295 39 20 7.8 4.3 | -28.9 -20.0 290 36 18 7.8 4.3
25000 -26.3 -15.3 290 39 20 7.8 4.3 | -26.5 -15.7 290 35 18 7.8 4.3
24000 -23.3 -9.9 290 38 20 8.4 4.6 | -23.5 -10.3 290 34 18 8.4 4.6
23000 -20.8 -5.4 290 37 19 8.4 4.6 | -21.0 -5.8 290 34 18 8.5 4.6
22000 -18.3 -0.9 290 36 19 8.4 4.6 | -18.4 -1.1 290 34 17 8.5 4.6
21000 -15.9 3.4 290 35 18 7.8 4.3 | -16.0 3.2 290 33 17 8.0 4.4
20000 -13.6 7.5 290 33 17 7.8 4.3 | -13.7 7.3 290 31 16 8.0 4.4
19500 -12.4 9.7 290 32 17 7.8 4.3 | -12.5 9.5 290 31 16 8.1 4.4
19000 -11.3 11.7 290 31 16 7.2 4.0 | -11.3 11.7 290 30 15 6.9 3.8
18500 -10.3 13.5 290 30 16 7.2 3.9 | -10.3 13.5 290 29 15 6.8 3.7
18000 -9.2 15.4 290 29 15 7.1 3.9 | -9.3 15.3 290 27 14 6.7 3.7
17500 -8.2 17.2 290 28 14 6.8 3.7 | -8.4 16.9 290 26 13 6.3 3.5
17000 -7.2 19.0 290 26 14 6.8 3.8 | -7.4 18.7 290 24 12 6.3 3.5
16500 -6.2 20.8 290 25 13 6.7 3.7 | -6.5 20.3 290 22 12 6.4 3.5
16000 -5.2 22.6 290 23 12 6.7 3.7 | -5.6 21.9 285 21 11 6.4 3.5
15500 -4.2 24.4 290 22 11 6.4 3.5 | -4.7 23.5 285 20 10 6.6 3.6
15000 -3.3 26.1 290 20 10 6.3 3.4 | -3.7 25.3 285 18 9 6.6 3.6
14500 -2.4 27.7 290 18 10 6.2 3.4 | -2.7 27.1 285 17 9 6.5 3.6
14000 -1.6 29.1 290 17 9 6.1 3.3 | -1.8 28.8 285 16 8 6.3 3.4
13500 -0.7 30.7 285 15 8 6.1 3.4 | -0.9 30.4 285 14 7 6.4 3.5
13000 0.2 32.4 285 14 7 6.4 3.5 | 0.0 32.0 285 13 7 7.1 3.9
12500 1.1 34.0 285 12 6 6.4 3.5 | 1.0 33.8 285 11 6 7.0 3.8
12000 2.1 35.8 285 11 5 8.0 4.4 | 2.1 35.8 290 10 5 8.0 4.4
11500 3.3 37.9 285 9 5 7.9 4.3 | 3.3 37.9 290 9 4 7.9 4.3
11000 4.5 40.1 290 8 4 8.2 4.5 | 4.5 40.1 290 8 4 8.4 4.6
10500 5.7 42.3 290 6 3 8.2 4.5 | 5.7 42.3 295 7 3 8.2 4.5
10250 6.3 43.3 295 5 3 7.1 3.9 | 6.3 43.3 295 6 3 6.7 3.7
10000 6.8 44.2 300 5 2 6.9 3.8 | 6.8 44.2 295 6 3 8.3 4.5
9750 7.3 45.1 305 4 2 7.6 4.2 | 7.5 45.5 300 6 3 10.1 5.6
9500 7.9 46.2 310 3 2 7.4 4.0 | 8.3 46.9 300 5 3 9.6 5.3
9250 8.4 47.1 320 3 1 7.3 4.0 | 9.7 49.5 305 5 2 8.6 4.7
9000 9.4 48.9 345 2 1 5.8 3.2 | 9.5 49.1 305 4 2 8.0 4.4
8750 9.8 49.6 360 2 1 6.0 3.3 | 10.2 50.4 310 4 2 8.5 4.7
8500 10.2 50.4 015 2 1 6.3 3.4 | 11.3 52.3 310 4 2 5.8 3.2
8250 10.7 51.3 030 2 1 6.1 3.3 | 11.7 53.1 315 3 2 6.8 3.7
8000 11.1 52.0 040 2 1 5.3 2.9 | 12.4 54.3 315 3 2 11.0 6.0
7750 11.5 52.7 050 3 1 4.6 2.5 | 13.2 55.8 315 3 2 9.6 5.2
7500 11.8 53.2 055 3 1 4.3 2.4 | 13.7 56.7 320 3 2 6.5 3.6
7250 12.1 53.8 060 3 2 4.4 2.4 | 14.2 57.6 320 3 1 7.3 4.0
7000 12.4 54.3 065 3 2 4.7 2.6 | 14.9 58.8 315 3 1 12.2 6.7
6750 12.8 55.0 065 4 2 4.4 2.4 | 15.9 60.6 315 3 1 12.2 6.7
6500 13.1 55.6 065 4 2 4.3 2.3 | 16.7 62.1 315 3 1 9.5 5.2
6250 13.4 56.1 065 4 2 3.6 2.0 | 17.4 63.3 315 3 1 9.1 5.0
6000 13.7 56.7 065 4 2 7.3 4.0 | 18.1 64.6 315 3 1 14.1 7.7
5750 14.5 58.1 070 3 2 15.6 8.6 | 19.7 67.5 315 2 1 27.3 15.0
5500 15.4 59.7 075 3 1 -0.4 -0.2 | 21.4 70.5 315 2 1 7.5 4.1
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
09/17/2025 AT 1500 MDT | 09/17/2025 AT 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +6.6 LI... +2.0 | CAPE... +17.4 LI... +0.5
CINH... -21.3 K INDEX... +16.0 | CINH... -20.6 K INDEX... +19.1
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -60.5 -76.9 305 33 17 1.6 0.9 | -60.4 -76.7 305 36 19 1.9 1.0
45000 -57.1 -70.8 300 53 27 4.4 2.4 | -56.8 -70.2 305 59 30 4.1 2.3
40000 -50.1 -58.2 300 66 34 4.9 2.7 | -50.2 -58.4 300 73 38 5.4 3.0
38000 -47.2 -53.0 300 69 35 4.8 2.7 | -47.1 -52.8 295 73 37 5.3 2.9
36000 -44.3 -47.7 295 71 37 4.8 2.7 | -43.9 -47.0 295 73 37 5.3 2.9
34000 -41.4 -42.5 295 69 35 4.7 2.6 | -40.8 -41.4 295 69 35 5.0 2.8
32000 -38.6 -37.5 295 64 33 4.7 2.6 | -37.8 -36.0 295 64 33 5.0 2.8
30000 -35.8 -32.4 295 55 28 4.4 2.4 | -35.0 -31.0 295 56 29 4.3 2.4
29000 -34.5 -30.1 295 49 25 4.4 2.4 | -33.7 -28.7 295 51 26 4.4 2.4
28000 -33.2 -27.8 290 43 22 4.3 2.4 | -32.4 -26.3 295 46 24 4.3 2.4
27000 -31.3 -24.3 290 39 20 7.5 4.1 | -30.7 -23.3 295 43 22 6.8 3.7
26000 -29.0 -20.2 290 37 19 7.5 4.1 | -28.6 -19.5 295 40 20 6.9 3.8
25000 -26.2 -15.2 290 35 18 7.4 4.1 | -26.0 -14.8 295 36 19 6.8 3.7
24000 -23.8 -10.8 290 34 17 8.5 4.7 | -23.8 -10.8 295 34 18 7.8 4.3
23000 -21.2 -6.2 290 33 17 8.5 4.7 | -21.5 -6.7 295 32 17 7.8 4.3
22000 -18.7 -1.7 290 33 17 8.5 4.7 | -19.1 -2.4 295 30 16 7.9 4.3
21000 -16.3 2.7 290 31 16 8.1 4.4 | -16.9 1.6 295 28 15 7.3 4.0
20000 -13.8 7.2 290 30 16 8.1 4.5 | -14.7 5.5 300 26 13 7.4 4.1
19500 -12.6 9.3 295 30 15 8.2 4.5 | -13.6 7.5 300 25 13 7.4 4.1
19000 -11.5 11.3 295 29 15 7.0 3.8 | -12.6 9.3 300 24 12 7.1 3.9
18500 -10.5 13.1 295 27 14 6.9 3.8 | -11.5 11.3 305 23 12 7.0 3.8
18000 -9.4 15.1 295 26 13 6.8 3.7 | -10.5 13.1 305 23 12 7.1 3.9
17500 -8.5 16.7 295 24 12 6.5 3.6 | -9.5 14.9 305 22 11 7.3 4.0
17000 -7.5 18.5 295 22 11 6.6 3.6 | -8.4 16.9 305 21 11 7.3 4.0
16500 -6.6 20.1 295 20 10 6.2 3.4 | -7.3 18.9 305 20 10 7.5 4.1
16000 -5.7 21.7 290 17 9 6.3 3.4 | -6.2 20.8 305 18 10 7.5 4.1
15500 -4.8 23.4 290 15 8 6.8 3.7 | -5.1 22.8 305 17 9 7.7 4.2
15000 -3.8 25.2 290 14 7 7.1 3.9 | -4.0 24.8 310 15 8 7.8 4.3
14500 -2.7 27.1 290 13 7 7.4 4.0 | -2.8 27.0 310 14 7 8.0 4.4
14000 -1.6 29.1 290 12 6 7.9 4.3 | -1.6 29.1 315 13 7 8.4 4.6
13500 -0.4 31.3 290 11 6 7.9 4.3 | -0.4 31.3 315 12 6 8.4 4.6
13000 0.8 33.4 295 11 5 8.4 4.6 | 0.8 33.4 320 11 6 9.0 4.9
12500 2.0 35.6 295 10 5 8.3 4.6 | 2.1 35.8 320 11 5 8.9 4.9
12000 3.3 37.9 295 10 5 9.1 5.0 | 3.5 38.3 325 10 5 9.0 5.0
11500 4.6 40.3 295 9 5 9.0 5.0 | 4.8 40.6 325 10 5 9.0 4.9
11000 5.9 42.6 295 9 5 8.8 4.8 | 6.2 43.2 330 10 5 9.2 5.1
10500 7.2 45.0 300 9 5 8.3 4.6 | 7.5 45.5 330 10 5 9.5 5.2
10250 7.8 46.0 300 9 5 6.9 3.8 | 8.2 46.8 335 10 5 7.8 4.3
10000 8.3 46.9 300 9 5 8.9 4.9 | 8.7 47.7 330 10 5 8.5 4.7
9750 9.1 48.4 300 9 5 10.6 5.8 | 9.5 49.1 335 10 5 10.5 5.8
9500 9.8 49.6 300 9 4 10.1 5.6 | 10.2 50.4 335 10 5 10.1 5.5
9250 10.5 50.9 305 9 4 8.3 4.5 | 11.0 51.8 335 10 5 9.4 5.1
9000 11.1 52.0 300 9 5 8.6 4.7 | 11.6 52.9 335 10 5 9.1 5.0
8750 11.9 53.4 305 9 4 10.5 5.7 | 13.1 55.6 335 10 5 9.5 5.2
8500 12.6 54.7 305 9 4 9.6 5.3 | 13.7 56.7 335 10 5 8.4 4.6
8250 13.8 56.8 305 9 5 8.5 4.6 | 14.4 57.9 330 9 5 8.9 4.9
8000 14.6 58.3 305 9 4 11.9 6.5 | 15.1 59.2 335 9 5 11.1 6.1
7750 15.4 59.7 305 8 4 10.4 5.7 | 15.9 60.6 335 9 5 10.2 5.6
7500 16.1 61.0 305 8 4 7.7 4.2 | 16.6 61.9 335 9 5 8.2 4.5
7250 16.7 62.1 305 9 4 8.3 4.6 | 17.2 63.0 330 9 5 8.2 4.5
7000 17.4 63.3 305 8 4 12.4 6.8 | 17.9 64.2 330 9 5 11.2 6.1
6750 18.4 65.1 305 8 4 12.0 6.6 | 18.8 65.8 335 9 4 11.2 6.1
6500 19.2 66.6 305 8 4 9.8 5.4 | 19.5 67.1 330 9 4 9.6 5.3
6250 19.9 67.8 300 8 4 9.3 5.1 | 20.3 68.5 330 8 4 9.7 5.3
6000 20.7 69.3 300 8 4 13.6 7.5 | 21.0 69.8 330 8 4 9.8 5.4
5750 22.2 72.0 305 7 4 26.9 14.7 | 21.8 71.2 330 7 4 13.1 7.2
5500 24.0 75.2 300 7 4 15.0 8.2 | 23.0 73.4 330 7 4 18.8 10.3
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN AT WALKER FIELD IN GRAND
JUNCTION, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 07 MIN 00.001 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 108 DEG 31 MIN 59.998 SEC
ELEVATION: 4839 FEET (1475 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPE OF
COLORADO. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS
DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO DATA WHICH APPEAR
TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
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