880
UXUS97 KGJT 131306
SRGGJT
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION, COLORADO
706 AM MDT THURSDAY, MARCH 13, 2025
THIS FORECAST IS FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 13, 2025:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 52.3 F/11.3 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... GOOD
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 496 FT/MIN (2.5 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 15256 FT MSL (10417 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 61.0 F/16.6 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 1030 MDT
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ 1200 MDT
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... BROKEN/OVERCAST OPAQUE MIDDLE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 12240 FT MSL (7401 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY 03/14....... POOR
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. NOT AVAILABLE
REMARKS...
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 07:27:35 / 19:19:16 MDT
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 11 HR 51 MIN 40 SEC (711 MIN 40 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 13:23:26 MDT... 47.94 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION TAKEN ON 03/13/2025 AT 0600 MDT
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 8592 FT MSL (3753 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 11852 FT MSL (7013 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 13254 FT MSL (8415 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... +3.5
K INDEX......................... +11.9
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.0 -81.4 235 43 22 4.7 2.6 97.7 207.8 46.2 M M
45000 -55.2 -67.4 245 57 29 5.5 3.0 84.8 184.7 41.8 M M
40000 -57.5 -71.5 245 86 44 -4.1 -2.2 58.1 136.5 27.3 M M
38000 -58.4 -73.1 245 75 39 2.8 1.5 47.9 118.1 21.2 M M
36000 -57.0 -70.6 240 69 36 3.8 2.1 41.3 106.4 17.3 M M
34000 -53.7 -64.7 235 66 34 5.6 3.1 37.6 99.7 15.2 M M
32000 -48.6 -55.5 235 67 35 8.7 4.7 35.6 96.0 14.1 M M
30000 -43.5 -46.3 235 67 34 7.8 4.3 34.6 94.3 13.8 M M
29000 -41.1 -42.0 235 63 32 7.9 4.4 33.9 93.0 13.4 M M
28000 -38.6 -37.5 240 61 31 8.4 4.6 33.3 91.9 13.1 M M
27000 -36.1 -33.0 240 68 35 8.4 4.6 32.8 91.0 12.9 M M
26000 -33.6 -28.5 240 59 30 8.1 4.4 32.2 90.0 12.6 M M
25000 -31.6 -24.9 240 53 27 4.9 2.7 31.0 87.8 11.8 M M
24000 -29.9 -21.8 235 52 27 5.9 3.2 29.4 84.9 10.7 M M
23000 -28.3 -18.9 240 46 23 5.3 2.9 27.8 82.0 9.5 M M
22000 -26.4 -15.5 240 39 20 8.6 4.7 26.6 79.9 8.6 M M
21000 -24.4 -11.9 240 41 21 6.5 3.6 25.6 78.0 7.8 M M
20000 -22.5 -8.5 230 41 21 5.9 3.2 24.3 75.8 6.9 M M
19500 -21.5 -6.7 230 42 22 8.8 4.8 23.8 74.8 6.4 M M
19000 -20.0 -4.0 235 44 23 9.9 5.5 23.9 74.9 6.5 M M
18500 -18.7 -1.7 235 45 23 8.6 4.7 23.7 74.7 6.4 M M
18000 -17.8 -0.0 235 43 22 1.8 1.0 23.0 73.4 5.9 M M
17500 -17.9 -0.2 235 41 21 0.2 0.1 20.4 68.6 3.6 M M
17000 -17.6 0.3 230 45 23 2.0 1.1 19.0 66.2 2.5 M M
16500 -17.3 0.9 235 40 21 2.5 1.4 17.7 63.9 1.3 M M
16000 -16.9 1.6 235 36 19 5.9 3.2 16.6 61.8 0.3 M M
15500 -15.6 3.9 235 36 19 8.3 4.5 16.4 61.4 0.1 M M
15000 -14.4 6.1 230 30 15 8.5 4.7 16.1 61.1 -0.2 861 4.4
14500 -13.2 8.2 230 30 15 8.7 4.8 15.9 60.7 -0.4 809 4.1
14000 -11.9 10.6 225 31 16 10.2 5.6 15.7 60.3 -0.6 758 3.8
13500 -11.5 11.3 225 27 14 -3.4 -1.9 14.7 58.4 -1.7 729 3.7
13000 -11.0 12.2 230 24 12 8.1 4.5 13.6 56.5 -2.7 700 3.6
12500 -9.8 14.4 230 26 13 8.3 4.6 13.4 56.1 -2.9 648 3.3
12000 -8.5 16.7 220 27 14 8.4 4.6 13.2 55.7 -3.1 597 3.0
11500 -7.3 18.9 220 25 13 8.4 4.6 12.9 55.2 -3.4 545 2.8
11000 -6.1 21.0 215 23 12 8.4 4.6 12.7 54.8 -3.7 493 2.5
10500 -4.8 23.4 210 21 11 8.4 4.6 12.4 54.4 -3.9 441 2.2
10250 -4.2 24.4 205 21 11 8.4 4.6 12.3 54.2 -4.0 415 2.1
10000 -3.6 25.5 200 20 10 8.4 4.6 12.2 54.0 -4.1 389 2.0
9750 -3.0 26.6 200 20 10 8.4 4.6 12.1 53.9 -4.2 363 1.8
9500 -2.3 27.9 215 21 11 8.5 4.6 12.1 53.7 -4.3 337 1.7
9250 -1.7 28.9 220 20 10 8.5 4.6 12.0 53.5 -4.4 311 1.6
9000 -1.1 30.0 210 15 8 8.5 4.6 11.9 53.4 -4.5 285 1.4
8750 -0.5 31.1 210 13 7 8.5 4.6 11.8 53.2 -4.6 258 1.3
8500 0.2 32.4 205 14 7 8.5 4.6 11.7 53.1 -4.8 232 1.2
8250 0.8 33.4 195 15 8 8.5 4.6 11.6 52.9 -4.9 206 1.0
8000 1.4 34.5 190 16 8 8.5 4.6 11.5 52.7 -5.0 180 0.9
7750 2.0 35.6 185 16 8 8.5 4.6 11.4 52.6 -5.1 153 0.8
7500 2.7 36.9 180 15 7 8.5 4.6 11.3 52.4 -5.2 127 0.6
7250 3.3 37.9 175 13 7 8.5 4.6 11.2 52.2 -5.3 101 0.5
7000 3.9 39.0 170 12 6 8.5 4.6 11.1 52.0 -5.4 75 0.4
6750 4.6 40.3 170 13 7 8.5 4.6 11.0 51.9 -5.5 49 0.2
6500 5.2 41.4 165 14 7 8.5 4.6 10.9 51.7 -5.7 22 0.1
6250 5.8 42.4 165 16 8 8.5 4.7 10.8 51.5 -5.8 M M
6000 6.4 43.5 160 17 9 8.5 4.6 10.7 51.3 -5.9 M M
5750 7.1 44.8 160 17 9 8.5 4.7 10.6 51.1 -6.0 M M
5500 7.7 45.9 160 18 9 8.3 4.6 10.5 50.9 -6.2 M M
5250 8.3 46.9 165 19 10 9.0 5.0 10.4 50.7 -6.3 M M
5000 8.9 48.0 165 14 7 6.4 3.5 10.3 50.6 -6.4 M M
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
03/13/2025 AT 0900 MDT | 03/13/2025 AT 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +0.8 LI... +2.9 | CAPE... +51.9 LI... +1.4
CINH... -0.9 K INDEX... +14.5 | CINH... -0.9 K INDEX... +15.7
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -58.2 -72.8 245 47 24 2.9 1.6 | -57.2 -71.0 245 42 22 2.9 1.6
45000 -53.9 -65.0 245 63 32 3.3 1.8 | -52.6 -62.7 240 62 32 3.2 1.7
40000 -55.3 -67.5 240 71 37 -1.1 -0.6 | -54.0 -65.2 230 67 35 -1.3 -0.7
38000 -55.6 -68.1 240 74 38 0.8 0.4 | -54.5 -66.1 230 70 36 0.3 0.1
36000 -55.0 -67.0 235 76 39 0.8 0.5 | -54.4 -65.9 230 74 38 0.3 0.1
34000 -54.4 -65.9 230 77 40 5.0 2.7 | -54.2 -65.6 230 78 40 2.0 1.1
32000 -50.2 -58.4 230 72 37 7.1 3.9 | -51.0 -59.8 230 71 37 5.5 3.0
30000 -45.9 -50.6 230 66 34 7.9 4.3 | -47.7 -53.9 225 64 33 6.9 3.8
29000 -43.5 -46.3 230 63 33 8.0 4.4 | -45.2 -49.4 225 62 32 8.3 4.5
28000 -41.1 -42.0 230 60 31 8.0 4.4 | -42.7 -44.9 225 60 31 8.3 4.5
27000 -38.7 -37.7 235 57 30 8.0 4.4 | -40.3 -40.5 225 59 30 8.3 4.5
26000 -36.5 -33.7 235 54 28 7.3 4.0 | -37.8 -36.0 225 57 29 8.1 4.4
25000 -34.3 -29.7 235 50 26 7.3 4.0 | -35.4 -31.7 225 54 28 8.0 4.4
24000 -32.1 -25.8 235 47 24 7.3 4.0 | -33.0 -27.4 220 52 27 8.0 4.4
23000 -29.9 -21.8 230 44 22 7.4 4.0 | -30.7 -23.3 220 50 26 7.4 4.0
22000 -27.2 -17.0 230 40 21 7.4 4.1 | -28.5 -19.3 220 48 25 7.4 4.0
21000 -25.0 -13.0 230 38 20 7.5 4.1 | -25.8 -14.4 220 46 24 7.4 4.1
20000 -22.7 -8.9 230 37 19 7.6 4.2 | -23.6 -10.5 220 44 23 7.3 4.0
19500 -21.6 -6.9 230 37 19 7.6 4.2 | -22.6 -8.7 220 43 22 7.3 4.0
19000 -20.4 -4.7 235 37 19 7.6 4.2 | -21.5 -6.7 220 42 22 7.3 4.0
18500 -19.3 -2.7 235 37 19 7.5 4.1 | -20.4 -4.7 225 42 21 7.3 4.0
18000 -18.3 -0.9 235 37 19 6.3 3.4 | -19.4 -2.9 225 40 21 6.7 3.7
17500 -17.3 0.9 235 36 19 6.4 3.5 | -18.4 -1.1 225 39 20 6.8 3.7
17000 -16.4 2.5 235 36 18 5.3 2.9 | -17.4 0.7 225 38 20 6.2 3.4
16500 -15.7 3.7 235 35 18 5.0 2.8 | -16.5 2.3 225 37 19 5.9 3.2
16000 -15.0 5.0 235 34 17 5.0 2.8 | -15.6 3.9 225 35 18 5.9 3.2
15500 -14.3 6.3 235 33 17 5.0 2.7 | -14.7 5.5 220 34 17 6.0 3.3
15000 -13.5 7.7 230 32 16 5.0 2.8 | -13.9 7.0 220 32 17 6.0 3.3
14500 -12.8 9.0 230 31 16 5.6 3.1 | -13.0 8.6 220 31 16 5.8 3.2
14000 -12.0 10.4 230 30 15 5.5 3.0 | -12.1 10.2 220 30 15 5.9 3.2
13500 -11.1 12.0 225 30 15 6.7 3.7 | -11.3 11.7 220 29 15 6.2 3.4
13000 -10.1 13.8 225 30 15 6.7 3.7 | -10.4 13.3 215 29 15 6.2 3.4
12500 -9.2 15.4 220 30 15 6.9 3.8 | -9.4 15.1 215 28 15 6.9 3.8
12000 -8.2 17.2 220 30 16 7.0 3.8 | -8.4 16.9 210 29 15 7.0 3.8
11500 -7.2 19.0 215 31 16 6.9 3.8 | -7.4 18.7 210 29 15 7.6 4.2
11000 -6.2 20.8 215 30 16 7.0 3.8 | -6.3 20.7 210 29 15 7.7 4.2
10500 -5.2 22.6 215 29 15 6.1 3.3 | -5.2 22.6 205 28 14 7.4 4.1
10250 -4.8 23.4 215 29 15 5.9 3.2 | -4.6 23.7 205 27 14 7.5 4.1
10000 -4.3 24.3 215 28 14 8.1 4.5 | -4.0 24.8 205 26 13 8.6 4.7
9750 -3.6 25.5 210 27 14 8.9 4.9 | -3.4 25.9 205 27 14 9.3 5.1
9500 -3.1 26.4 210 26 14 7.5 4.1 | -2.7 27.1 205 26 13 9.1 5.0
9250 -2.5 27.5 210 25 13 7.9 4.3 | -2.0 28.4 200 25 13 9.5 5.2
9000 -1.9 28.6 210 25 13 7.6 4.2 | -1.3 29.7 200 24 12 8.4 4.6
8750 -1.4 29.5 205 24 12 8.0 4.4 | -0.8 30.6 200 25 13 8.7 4.7
8500 -0.8 30.6 205 23 12 8.4 4.6 | -0.0 32.0 200 24 12 10.0 5.5
8250 0.5 32.9 205 23 12 8.2 4.5 | 0.7 33.3 200 23 12 9.9 5.4
8000 1.1 34.0 200 22 11 7.8 4.3 | 2.1 35.8 200 23 12 9.5 5.2
7750 1.6 34.9 200 22 11 7.5 4.1 | 2.8 37.0 200 23 12 9.9 5.4
7500 2.2 36.0 195 21 11 8.0 4.4 | 3.6 38.5 200 22 11 10.1 5.5
7250 2.8 37.0 195 21 11 5.8 3.2 | 4.3 39.7 200 22 11 8.9 4.9
7000 3.1 37.6 185 20 10 5.9 3.2 | 4.9 40.8 200 21 11 9.3 5.1
6750 3.7 38.7 185 18 9 8.2 4.5 | 5.7 42.3 200 20 10 10.7 5.9
6500 4.3 39.7 180 17 9 7.2 4.0 | 6.5 43.7 200 20 10 10.6 5.8
6250 4.8 40.6 175 16 8 6.7 3.7 | 7.3 45.1 200 19 10 10.6 5.8
6000 5.3 41.5 165 15 8 6.1 3.4 | 8.2 46.8 195 18 9 14.8 8.1
5750 5.7 42.3 165 13 7 7.9 4.3 | 9.6 49.3 195 16 8 22.9 12.5
5500 6.7 44.1 160 10 5 20.6 11.3 | 11.0 51.8 195 14 7 8.2 4.5
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
03/13/2025 AT 1500 MDT | 03/13/2025 AT 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +61.3 LI... +0.2 | CAPE... +190.1 LI... -1.1
CINH... -1.2 K INDEX... +20.8 | CINH... -9.0 K INDEX... +23.0
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -55.6 -68.1 245 41 21 3.0 1.7 | -54.5 -66.1 250 34 17 3.5 1.9
45000 -50.9 -59.6 240 56 29 3.2 1.8 | -49.2 -56.6 250 40 20 3.5 1.9
40000 -52.7 -62.9 230 62 32 -1.6 -0.9 | -51.0 -59.8 230 51 26 -1.8 -1.0
38000 -53.6 -64.5 225 65 33 -0.9 -0.5 | -52.0 -61.6 225 57 29 -0.8 -0.4
36000 -54.1 -65.4 225 67 35 -1.0 -0.5 | -52.5 -62.5 225 60 31 -0.9 -0.5
34000 -54.7 -66.5 230 69 36 -1.4 -0.8 | -53.1 -63.6 225 63 32 -0.8 -0.4
32000 -52.0 -61.6 225 67 34 5.5 3.0 | -51.5 -60.7 220 61 32 3.7 2.1
30000 -48.7 -55.7 220 64 33 5.2 2.8 | -49.2 -56.6 220 58 30 3.7 2.0
29000 -46.5 -51.7 220 62 32 8.1 4.5 | -47.6 -53.7 215 56 29 6.5 3.5
28000 -44.1 -47.4 220 60 31 8.1 4.5 | -45.7 -50.3 215 55 28 6.5 3.6
27000 -41.0 -41.8 220 58 30 8.1 4.5 | -43.7 -46.7 215 54 28 6.5 3.6
26000 -38.6 -37.5 220 57 29 8.0 4.4 | -41.0 -41.8 215 52 27 8.4 4.6
25000 -36.2 -33.2 220 56 29 8.0 4.4 | -38.5 -37.3 220 50 26 8.4 4.6
24000 -33.8 -28.8 220 55 28 8.0 4.4 | -36.0 -32.8 220 48 25 8.4 4.6
23000 -31.5 -24.7 220 54 28 7.6 4.2 | -33.5 -28.3 220 47 24 8.3 4.5
22000 -29.2 -20.6 220 52 27 7.6 4.2 | -31.0 -23.8 220 45 23 8.3 4.5
21000 -26.9 -16.4 215 50 26 7.7 4.2 | -28.6 -19.5 220 43 22 8.3 4.6
20000 -24.7 -12.5 215 48 25 7.2 3.9 | -26.1 -15.0 220 42 22 8.1 4.4
19500 -23.6 -10.5 215 47 24 7.2 3.9 | -24.9 -12.8 220 41 21 8.1 4.4
19000 -22.6 -8.7 215 46 24 7.2 3.9 | -23.7 -10.7 220 41 21 8.1 4.4
18500 -21.5 -6.7 215 45 23 7.2 4.0 | -22.5 -8.5 220 40 21 8.1 4.4
18000 -20.5 -4.9 215 44 23 6.6 3.6 | -21.3 -6.3 220 39 20 8.0 4.4
17500 -19.5 -3.1 215 43 22 6.5 3.6 | -20.2 -4.4 220 39 20 7.9 4.3
17000 -18.5 -1.3 215 42 21 6.5 3.6 | -19.0 -2.2 220 38 20 7.9 4.3
16500 -17.6 0.3 215 40 21 6.5 3.6 | -17.8 -0.0 220 38 19 7.9 4.3
16000 -16.6 2.1 215 39 20 6.5 3.6 | -16.6 2.1 215 37 19 7.9 4.3
15500 -15.6 3.9 215 38 20 6.7 3.7 | -15.5 4.1 215 37 19 8.0 4.4
15000 -14.7 5.5 215 37 19 6.7 3.7 | -14.3 6.3 215 37 19 8.0 4.4
14500 -13.7 7.3 215 36 18 7.0 3.8 | -13.1 8.4 215 37 19 7.9 4.3
14000 -12.6 9.3 215 35 18 7.1 3.9 | -12.0 10.4 210 37 19 7.8 4.3
13500 -11.6 11.1 210 34 18 7.4 4.0 | -10.8 12.6 210 37 19 7.8 4.3
13000 -10.5 13.1 210 34 17 7.5 4.1 | -9.6 14.7 210 37 19 7.8 4.3
12500 -9.4 15.1 210 33 17 7.8 4.3 | -8.5 16.7 205 37 19 7.8 4.3
12000 -8.2 17.2 205 32 17 8.1 4.4 | -7.4 18.7 205 37 19 7.8 4.3
11500 -7.0 19.4 205 32 16 8.4 4.6 | -6.2 20.8 205 36 19 7.8 4.3
11000 -5.7 21.7 205 30 16 8.7 4.8 | -5.1 22.8 200 35 18 8.1 4.4
10500 -4.4 24.1 205 29 15 8.8 4.9 | -3.9 25.0 200 34 17 8.4 4.6
10250 -3.8 25.2 205 28 15 9.1 5.0 | -3.2 26.2 200 33 17 9.1 5.0
10000 -3.1 26.4 205 28 14 9.4 5.2 | -2.6 27.3 200 33 17 8.9 4.9
9750 -2.4 27.7 205 28 15 9.6 5.3 | -1.9 28.6 200 33 17 8.6 4.7
9500 -0.9 30.4 205 28 14 10.8 5.9 | -1.3 29.7 200 32 17 9.0 4.9
9250 -0.1 31.8 200 27 14 9.4 5.2 | -0.6 30.9 200 32 16 9.6 5.2
9000 0.6 33.1 200 27 14 8.6 4.7 | 0.1 32.2 200 31 16 9.2 5.1
8750 1.3 34.3 200 27 14 10.0 5.5 | 1.4 34.5 200 30 16 9.3 5.1
8500 2.0 35.6 200 27 14 10.8 5.9 | 2.2 36.0 200 30 15 9.8 5.4
8250 2.8 37.0 200 26 14 9.6 5.3 | 2.9 37.2 195 29 15 9.6 5.2
8000 3.5 38.3 200 26 13 8.9 4.9 | 3.6 38.5 195 28 15 9.4 5.1
7750 4.2 39.6 200 25 13 9.7 5.3 | 4.3 39.7 195 27 14 9.3 5.1
7500 4.9 40.8 200 25 13 10.0 5.5 | 5.0 41.0 195 27 14 9.2 5.1
7250 5.7 42.3 200 24 12 9.3 5.1 | 5.7 42.3 195 27 14 9.5 5.2
7000 6.4 43.5 200 24 12 9.4 5.2 | 6.4 43.5 195 25 13 9.7 5.3
6750 7.1 44.8 200 23 12 10.3 5.6 | 7.1 44.8 195 23 12 9.6 5.3
6500 7.8 46.0 200 22 11 9.6 5.3 | 7.8 46.0 195 21 11 9.1 5.0
6250 8.6 47.5 200 21 11 11.3 6.2 | 8.5 47.3 195 20 10 10.6 5.8
6000 9.6 49.3 200 20 11 14.5 8.0 | 9.4 48.9 195 21 11 13.0 7.1
5750 10.7 51.3 200 18 9 15.1 8.3 | 10.4 50.7 195 18 9 12.3 6.8
5500 11.8 53.2 200 15 8 15.5 8.5 | 11.3 52.3 190 15 8 14.8 8.1
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN AT WALKER FIELD IN GRAND
JUNCTION, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 07 MIN 00.001 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 108 DEG 31 MIN 59.998 SEC
ELEVATION: 4839 FEET (1475 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPE OF
COLORADO. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS
DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO DATA WHICH APPEAR
TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
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