000  
FNUS71 KALY 221503  
FWSALY  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR LAFAYETTEVILLE RX FIRE...NYSDEC  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
1103 AM EDT FRI MAR 22 2024  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON MARCH 22.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY WILL YIELD DRY BUT  
COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH GRADUALLY SUBSIDING  
WINDS. A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD  
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH PLOWABLE SNOWS, LIGHT ICE OR SLEET  
ACCUMULATIONS, AND FLOODING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 37.  
MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............6.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST  
AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (17100 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............2.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.  
 
TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........52 59 65 65 64 64  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 10 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............29 31 33 35 36 36  
DEWPOINT........4 5 6 7 8 8  
RH..............34 32 31 30 30 30  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W SW SW S  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 5 5 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 7 7 6 8 8  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.4 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW W W W SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 6 6 6 6  
LVORI...........1 2 2 2 2 2  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..23 20 17 17 18 17  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SNOW IN THE EVENING, THEN RAIN, FREEZING RAIN  
AND SNOW LIKELY OVERNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 31.  
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............12 INCREASING TO 28.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO 5 TO 10  
MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 14 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (13000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (1700 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
LVORI...............4.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.22 INCHES.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........67 70 73 77 82 87 90 94 98 98 98 98  
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE.... SN SN SN ZRS RN RN RN  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 20 30 40 60 60 70 70  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............36 34 32 32 31 32 31 31 31 32 32 33  
DEWPOINT........10 11 12 14 16 19 21 23 26 27 28 30  
RH..............33 38 43 47 53 58 66 72 81 81 85 89  
20 FT WIND DIR..S SE SE S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 5 6 6 8 9 10 10 10 10 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 6 6 7 10 12 13 15 15 14 15 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.7 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S SE SE SE S S S S S S SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 5 5 5 6 7 9 12 14 14 14 14  
LVORI...........2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 5  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..13 8 3 2 2 4 7 10 12 13 12 11  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
 

 
FORECASTER...RATHBUN  
REQUESTED BY...LT KEVIN SLADE  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2407869.2/ALY  
.DELDT 03/22/24  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL KEVIN.SLADE@DEC.NY.GOV  
 
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