505  
FNUS71 KALY 130856  
FWSALY  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR APB GHERKIN RX...ALBANY PINE BUSH  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
456 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2024  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 EDT ON JUNE 13.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS  
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE HEADING INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER-  
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION  
TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POTENTIALLY  
BECOMING SEVERE, ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TOMORROW  
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY, SEASONABLE WEATHER THEN RETURNS  
FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE SUMMER-LIKE HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86.  
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............53 INCREASING TO 57 IN THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 15 MPH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (73000 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............5.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........19 21 22 24 22 23 24 25 25 26 27 27  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............54 57 61 66 70 75 78 81 83 84 85 84  
DEWPOINT........51 53 55 57 56 57 58 58 58 58 57 57  
RH..............96 89 81 73 61 54 50 46 43 41 39 40  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 3 3 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 6 6 6 7 8 10 12 14 15 15 16  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.5 2.2 3.7 5.3 6.4 6.6 6.1 5.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.3 5 5 5 6 7 8 10 12 13 15 15  
LVORI...........8 6 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 2 4 4 7 13 30 49 64 72 73 66  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR GD GD GD GD  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.  
MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............59.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 14 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (47300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (500 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
LVORI...............3.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........28 28 32 35 39 35 32 28 32 35 39 46  
WEATHER COV..... SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 20  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............83 80 76 73 71 70 69 68 68 67 66 66  
DEWPOINT........58 59 60 60 60 60 61 61 61 61 61 61  
RH..............43 49 58 64 68 71 76 78 78 81 84 84  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 8 8 8 9 10 9 9 9 8 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 14 14 15 15 16 16 16 16 14 13  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.6 1.9 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 10  
LVORI...........2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..47 24 5 1 2 6 6 6 6 5 4 4  
VENTRATE CAT....FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS LIKELY  
THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0800, THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL  
1000, THEN 9-15 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.  
MIN HUMIDITY........69 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............63.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN  
THE AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST  
AROUND 7 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY  
IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 9 TO 13  
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO FAIR (25400 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............4.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.28 INCHES.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........54 61 63 66 68 70 72 76 79 80 82 84  
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 60 60 60 60 60 60 70 70 70 70  
LAL.............1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
TEMP............66 67 69 71 73 75 76 76 75 74 73 72  
DEWPOINT........61 62 63 64 65 65 65 65 65 64 65 65  
RH..............84 84 81 79 76 71 69 69 71 71 76 79  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S W W W W W SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 6 5 5 5 7 7 7 6 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.12 12 12 9 9 10 10 12 13 13 12 12  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S SW SW W W NW NW W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 9 9 9 9 9 10 12 13 12 10 9  
LVORI...........4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 5 7 11 15 19 22 25 25 22 17 12  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
 

 
FORECASTER...NAS  
REQUESTED BY...TYLER BRIGGS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2416080.0/ALY  
.DELDT 06/13/24  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL TBRIGGS@ALBANYPINEBUSH.ORG  
 
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