158  
FNUS71 KALY 162215  
FWSALY  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR CROC FIRE...NYS DEC  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
615 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2022  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1900 EDT ON AUGUST 16.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL BRING  
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  
IMPROVING WEATHER THURSDAY WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER. DRIER  
AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY INTO THIS  
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
RH VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 70 PERCENT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT, WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY. RH VALUES DROP TO 40 TO  
60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST AT  
LESS THAN 15 MPH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE  
TO AROUND 15 MPH THURSDAY.  
   
REST OF TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
BEGIN/END OF PCPN...  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............56.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 7 MPH DECREASING TO 3 TO 5 MPH AFTER  
3 AM.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01 INCHES.  
 
TIME (EDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........64 62 63 64 65 67 70 72 72 73 73  
WEATHER COV.....ISO  
WEATHER TYPE....RW  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
TEMP............72 70 68 66 64 63 62 61 60 59 59  
DEWPOINT........55 56 56 57 57 57 58 58 58 57 57  
RH..............55 61 65 73 78 81 87 90 93 93 93  
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N NW NW  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 14 13 13 12 10 10 9 8 8  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE NE N N N N N N N  
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 3  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..13 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN  
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
BEGIN/END OF PCPN...  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.  
MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............57.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 8 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 14 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO GOOD (43300 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03 INCHES.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........73 73 73 72 70 69 70 70 71 75 80 84  
WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 20 20 20 30 40 40 40 50 50  
TEMP............59 60 61 63 66 68 69 70 70 70 70 69  
DEWPOINT........57 58 58 58 58 58 57 57 56 56 56 56  
RH..............93 93 90 84 75 70 66 63 61 61 61 63  
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW N N N N N N N N N N  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 16 16 16 16  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.7 4.0 4.9 4.8 4.1 3.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N NE N N N N N N  
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 12 13 14  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..0 0 0 2 5 10 20 31 39 43 43 39  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR PR  
   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
BEGIN/END OF PCPN...  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............56.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 7 TO 13 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (28000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (0 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03 INCHES.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........82 79 77 74 71 68 70 73 75 74 73 72  
WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 40 30 30 30 30 30 30 40 40 40 40  
TEMP............67 65 63 61 60 59 58 58 58 57 56 56  
DEWPOINT........56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56  
RH..............68 73 78 84 87 90 93 93 93 96 100 100  
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW  
20 FT WIND SPD..9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.17 17 18 18 18 18 17 17 16 15 15 14  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.3 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..28 15 3 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
 

 
FORECASTER...WASULA  
REQUESTED BY...LT. SARAH GEESLER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2216809.0/ALY  
.DELDT 08/16/22  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL RYAN.NERP@DEC.NY.GOV  
 
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