826
FXUS61 KALY 211722
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE ADDED SOME 20-30% CHANCE POPS FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WAVE TRACKING
ALONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH.
FREEZE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS, AND FROST ADVISORIES ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
SCHOHARIE COUNTY, HELDERBERGS, LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND
RENSSELAER PLATEAU, AND SOUTHERN VT WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WEAK WAVE TRAVELING ALONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
2) CLEARING SKIES AMID A VERY DRY AND COOL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY TONIGHT, WITH AREAS OF FROST/FREEZING
TEMPS EXPECTED.
3) STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
RAINFALL FOR SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD FRONT WHICH DROPPED SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY HSA
STALLED, WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT.
BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO OCCUR THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT, WITH EXTENSIVE
SHIELD OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM N TO S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S EXCEPT FOR 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AREAS NORTH OF I-90 SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING, AND
WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS AMID A DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT'S 0.25-0.35"
(-1 TO -2 SD) SHOULD PROMOTE QUICK COOLING AFTER SUNSET, WITH
MIN TEMPS LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SW
ADIRONDACKS, AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY. FROST ADVISORIES/FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE, STILL CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE, ANOTHER NIGHT OF EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL AREAS OF FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SW ADIRONDACKS, WHERE SOME FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MAIN COMPLICATION STEMMING FROM DOWNSTREAM UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA, ALONG WITH DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES, A CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
MAY PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND, DELAYING THE
NORTH/EAST EXTENT OF STEADY RAINFALL. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY, WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN SLOWLY INCREASING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
FOR A PORTION OF MONDAY.
IN AREAS WHERE A STEADY PERIOD OF RAIN OCCURS, DAYTIME HIGHS
COULD BE QUITE CHILLY DUE TO STRONG WET-BULB COOLING AMID AN
INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS. MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S WHERE STEADY RAIN PERSISTS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SCT-BKN HIGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING AT KPOU OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE N/NE STARTING OFF THE TAF
PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR KPSF WITH WINDS OUT OF THE N/NW, AND
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE NE/E AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW, WITH A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPOU. OTHERWISE, HIGH
CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NYZ032-033-042.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NYZ038>041-043-047-048-051-054-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...27/24
AVIATION...23
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