828
FXUS61 KALY 091119
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST ONE BRINGS
LIGHT SNOWFALL NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THE SECOND SYSTEM FOR
WEDNESDAY BRINGS WIDESPREAD SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN
SNOW MIXES WITH RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS WHILE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW.
BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM, LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINTER STORM WATCHES CONTINUE FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY FROM 4AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 7AM
THURSDAY.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS, EASTERN CATSKILLS, AND THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AS THESE LOCATIONS COULD SEE
GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.
DISCUSSION:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TODAY CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD BRINGING ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. A WEAK PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHT SNOWFALL
TO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. AS THIS IS A FAST AND WEAK MOVING SYSTEM,
WE'RE FORECASTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE BETWEEN A TRACE AND 2
INCHES(IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS). BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM WE
COULD SEE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION AS OUR NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS SYSTEM BRINGS ONSET PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE ALL SNOW AS COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO CONTRIBUTE TEMPERATURES BEING BELOW
FREEZING. THE CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN GREENS, AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AS SNOW MIXES WITH RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTSIDE OF HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS, THE
CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTS LIGHT RAIN/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS RANGE BETWEEN A COATING TO 2 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE
BETWEEN A TENTH TO A QUARTER. FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE VALLEYS RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS CURRENTLY FORECASTED FOR 5 TO 7 INCHES. FOR THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS, MOST LOCATIONS RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH A
FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN WESTERN ULSTER COUNTY BETWEEN 5 TO 7
INCHES. THESE LOCATIONS ARE IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WITH
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET.
FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS, LATEST NBM AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS NORTH OF
THE THRUWAY (I-90) AND SOUTH OF NY-28. THIS NARROW BAND OF
HIGHER TOTALS COMES FROM WHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDS OF
SNOWFALL COULD SET UP FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCES CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE ON IF THESE BANDS MOVE FURTHER
NORTH SO SNOWFALL TOTALS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN WARNING
AND ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH IS WHY WE CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS. FOR THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FOR THAT TRANSITION OVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN. SNOWFALL
TOTALS RANGE ON THE LOWER END BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES. BOTTOM LINE
UP FRONT, THE TERRAIN AND TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE THE
BIGGEST INFLUENCE WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS.
BE PREPARED FOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING, THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS NORTH AND EAST. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND UPSLOPE SNOW RETURN FOR THURSDAY AS WELL
AS GUSTY WINDS.
LATEST PROBABILITIES FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) DATA
FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH IS BETWEEN 30 AND 70 PERCENT FOR THE
BERKSHIRES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND ARE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. THE HIGHER SIDE OF THOSE
PROBABILITIES ARE FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES AS THE TERRAIN WILL PLAY A
PART IN IF WINDS EXCEED 40 MPH. NEVERTHELESS, WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST WITH WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING,
ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION:
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING LOOKS TO BE OVER THE AREA ON FRI BRINGING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN PARTS OF THE W.
ADIRONDACKS AND W. MOHAWK VALLEY. IT WILL REMAIN CHILLY. A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT BRINGS ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBS WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY DUE TO LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. ANY SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND SE CANADA, THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED
WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF WINDOW FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG/NEAR
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. AT THIS TIME
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT, BUT ALSO FOR A
FAIRLY WEAK/PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. THIS COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.
THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE NORTHEAST SUN INTO MON, WITH
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS BUILDING IN. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN DURING THIS TIME. 850 MB TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES FROM THE NAEFS ARE FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -2 STDEV.
THERE WILL BE SOME WIND AT LEAST THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST, SO WIND CHILLS COULD BE BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MON WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING, BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING COLD.
AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD, WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF -SHSN WITH MVFR VSBY AT
KALB/KGFL/KPSF AFTER 00Z WED. WILL MENTION PROB30 AT THESE
SITES. OTHERWISE, SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INITIALLY WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
WINDS WILL BE CALM INTO THIS MORNING, BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
5-10 KT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ032-033-038-082.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...07
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page