808
FXUS61 KALY 061040
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FARTHER NORTH TO NOW ENCOMPASS MOST
OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, PARTICULARLY
TODAY.
2) INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALSO RETURN TODAY INTO FRIDAY,
WHICH MAY RESULT IN HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS, MAINLY IN EASTERN
ULSTER, WESTERN DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DESPITE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FORCING, AMPLE WARMTH AND MOISTURE
SURGING INTO THE REGION ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE SURFACE-BASED FORCING
FOR ASCENT FOR THE INITIATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. IN FACT, THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES WIDELY REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL SEE SBCAPE
VALUES REACH 2000-3000 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY, PAIRED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
20-35 KT AND MEAGER MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES (GENERALLY < 6 C/KM)
YIELD THE LOW, THOUGH NON-ZERO PROBABILITY (~5-10% SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS) OF ISOLATED SEVERE- LEVEL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS NOT ONLY
MAINTAINED, BUT EXPANDED, THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR
ANY STORM THAT REACHES SEVERE STRENGTH WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, SHOULD BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER NOT OCCUR AS
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, IT COULD BE DIFFICULT FOR STORMS
TO GROW TALL ENOUGH TO REACH SEVERE STRENGTH. ADDITIONALLY, SOME
OF THE LATEST CAMS ARE SHOWING SUBTLE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSIONS WHICH COULD ALSO ACT TO INHIBIT STORM GROWTH.
THAT SAID, EVEN IF DEVELOPING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
DON'T EVOLVE INTO SEVERE-LEVEL CONVECTION, ANY SHOWER OR NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THE "AMPLE MOISTURE" MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY CAN BE CLASSIFIED MORE ACCURATELY AS ABOVE-NORMAL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN PWAT
VALUES ACHIEVE +2 STDEVS (~ 2-2.2" ACROSS OUR CWA). WARM AND
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PROCESSES PAIRED WITH HIGH INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT FREQUENT MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. AND, WITH FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOTION, POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING CONVECTION, AND WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THEREFORE OUTLINED OUR ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. LIKEWISE, PRECIPITATION
LOADING WILL PROMOTE RAPID DOWNWARD ACCELERATION (DCAPE VALUES
~500-700 J/KG) AND RESULTING GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY, THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SIMILAR, IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN THAN TODAY. HIRES GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY VARIED, GIVEN
THE SHORT LEAD TIME, REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS
POINT TO VERY LIMITED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION, OTHERS HAVE MORE
ROBUST STORMS THAN WHAT IS PROJECTED FOR TODAY. THE THINKING
BEHIND THIS IS THAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS ERRING TOWARDS MORE
CONVECTION TODAY, WHICH COULD STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT
SUFFICIENTLY TO INHIBIT CONVECTION TOMORROW, WHILE OTHERS ARE
RESOLVING A POTENTIAL REMNANT MCV THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND DRIVES STRONGER CONVECTION HERE TOMORROW. WITH
ANOTHER HOT, HUMID DAY ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING GIVEN AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, THE LATTER
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. IN FACT, THE LATEST REFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW LOW PROBABILITIES (~5-14%) FOR SEVERE-LEVEL WIND GUSTS FOR
FRIDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE TO
IRON OUT THE COVERAGE DETAILS. BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK JUST TO OUR
SOUTH FOR FRIDAY. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER, TOO, HAS
MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR CONVECTION TODAY AND POSSIBLY TOMORROW
FINALLY STARTS TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SO
FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW, WE WILL REMAIN IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID GIVEN OUR
POSITION RELATIVE TO THE BERMUDA HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL WIDELY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN VALLEY AREAS. THAT SAID,
THE MOST UNCOMFORTABLE AREAS WILL BE PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MID-
HUDSON VALLEY (EASTERN ULSTER AND WESTERN DUTCHESS COUNTIES) AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM 11 AM TODAY THROUGH 8 PM FRIDAY. HERE, HEAT INDEX
VALUES, OR FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES, WILL REACH UP TO 98 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT. CAUTION IS ADVISED PARTICULARLY TO THOSE WHO ARE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT KPOU AND KPSF THROUGH AROUND
14Z-16Z/THU, WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
AT KALB BETWEEN 12Z-15Z/THU. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COULD LINGER THROUGH 02Z/FRI, ESPECIALLY AT KPSF AND KPOU.
THEREAFTER, PATCHY GROUND FOG/LOW CLOUDS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
(MAINLY VSBYS) MAY DEVELOP (20-40% CHANCE), WITH GREATEST
CHANCES AT ANY LOCATIONS WHICH RECEIVE PRIOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT
BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER, AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
CTZ013.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NYZ064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...24
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