048
FXUS61 KALY 241705
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1205 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINDS GUSTS WERE INCREASED THIS MORNING BASED ON THE NYS MESONET
AND LOCAL METARS.
A CLIPPER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING TO EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SQUALLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT FOR MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
SNOWFALL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CLIPPER TYPE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY IMPACT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DURING THE COMMUTE. THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT MAY BRING
ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR
THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE.
2) ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY POTENTIALLY BRING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING SOUTH OF I-90.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THE DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS FOR LATE FEB, AS THE POWERFUL NOR'EASTER MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO OVER UPSTATE NY LATE IN THE DAY. THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE ANTICYCLONE SETTLING IN. TEMPS TODAY WILL RUN BELOW
NORMAL BY CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S
IN THE VALLEYS WITH A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY,
AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT TIMES
WITH THE GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25-40 MPH.
THE SFC HIGH WILL ONLY BRIEFLY BE IN CONTROL, AS A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW
TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT TO THE SYSTEM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL BREAK OUT
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR OFF THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
FOR 2-4" OF SNOW TO OCCUR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MOST
OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE 0.5-2" OF SNOWFALL
WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN CATSKILLS,
SOUTHERN GREENS, BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS IN THE 1-3"
RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE, SO
SOME SLICK SPOTS OR SNOW COVERED ROADS ARE LIKELY. WE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN DACKS BASED ON COLLAB
WITH WFO BGM AND BUF AND THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-7" OF SNOW NOT ONLY
WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE WARM FRONT, BUT THE CLIPPER
AND ITS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
THE CLIPPER AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING THE DAY, AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FOR THE AFTERNOON. AFTER LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER/MID
TEENS, EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WARM
SECTOR. SOME OF THE CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW SQUALLS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST RISK WOULD BE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BASED ON THE TIMING, AND THEY MAY
OVERLAP WITH THE EVENING COMMUTE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOES WARM
FOR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY IN THE
EARLY EVENING. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
PLACE BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, AND THE SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER DOES INCREASE. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF WE MIX
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS DOWN AND HOW FAST THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
FOR A WIDESPREAD SNOW SQUALL THREAT. FOR NOW, THE GREATEST RISK
LOOKS TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI CITIES.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT. A BRIEF LAKE EFFECT
CONNECTION WILL OCCUR BEFORE DIMINISHING, AS ANY ORGANIZED BAND
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS QUICKLY. WE KEPT THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY OUT UNTIL 12Z/THU. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE
LONG DURATION EVENT FOR THE NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES WILL BE 3-7" BASED ON THE LATEST NBM QPF AND SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS. LOWS IN THE POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION FALL BACK
TO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL FOR THU. A
QUICK MOVING OPEN WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-90 THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. THE
MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE SOUTH OF
THE REGION FOR THE TRACK. THE NBM STILL SUPPORTS CHANCE
PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD IMPACT THE FRI MORNING COMMUTE.
THE TRENDS FOR THIS WEAK SYSTEM ON ITS TRACK AND EVOLUTION, AS
WELL AS LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS OF 12:00 PM EST.
FLYING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 07-09Z TONIGHT WITH SCT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT PSF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AFTER SUNSET. THEN, A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO ALL TERMINALS STARTING BETWEEN
07-09Z TONIGHT. MAINLY IFR VSBYS AND LOW-END MVFR CIGS EXPECTED ONCE
SNOW STARTS. SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY TO MID-MORNING TOMORROW, WITH
VSBYS IMPROVING BACK TO VFR ALTHOUGH LINGERING MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE W/NW THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND BACKING TO THE S/SE. WINDS
GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT UP UNTIL SNOW STARTS. THEN, WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FROM THE
S/SE, CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. PERIOD OF LLWS
ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS
A S/SW LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 35-40 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...35
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