092
FXUS61 KALY 111104
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
704 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LINGERING CLOUDS TONIGHT HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SOUTHERN VT, THE TACONICS, AND THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN FROST THROUGH THIS
MORNING HAS DECREASED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MAY
NEED TO CANCEL FROST ADVISORIES EARLY.
LOWERED DEW POINTS FOR TODAY GIVEN VERY DEEP MIXING AND BREEZY
WINDS. ALSO SLOWED DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AREAS OF FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN EXCEPT IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.
2) INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DECREASE AS WE REMAIN
UPSTREAM OF A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
MAINTAINING CLOUDS. AS OF 2 AM, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL MILD IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN VT AND
THE NORTHERN TACONICS. IF CLOUDS PERSIST AND TEMPERATURE
STRUGGLE TO COOL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, WE LIKELY WILL CANCEL
THE FROST ADVISORY EARLY THERE. HOWEVER, THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
SCHOHARIE COUNTY AND HELDERBERGS ARE COOLER IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S GIVEN CLEARER SKIES SO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN FROST FORMING
THROUGH SUNRISE.
AFTER OUR TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING, EXCEPT SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN CANADA TO BUILD EASTWARD. THIS WILL
SUPPORT CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS, ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT, FROM WEST TO EAST. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED
WITH AN INCOMING COOLER AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT CHILLY TEMPERATURES
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 40 TO 80% CHANCE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW 36 DEGREES IN SOUTHERN VT, WESTERN
MA, THE NORTHERN TACONICS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, MOHAWK VALLEY,
SCHOHARIE COUNTY, AND THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN. THUS, CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO
HIGH THAT WE WILL NEED FROST ADVISORIES AND EVEN SOME FREEZE
WARNINGS. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS AND NW CT WHICH SHOULD KEEP
THESE AREAS MILDER AND THUS MITIGATE FROST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A MATURING SFC LOW WILL
TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN AN INITIAL PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN FOCUSED ALONG
THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENTS. AS THE PARENT TROUGH
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, A SECONDARY SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG ITS COLD
FRONT AND SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN. LATEST
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER WHERE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE
CONVEYOR BELT OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. AS THE PARENT
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY, THE COOL POOL ALOFT MAY EVEN
SUPPORT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY RESULTING IN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE PARENT
SHORTWAVE TO CLOSE OFF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD FURTHER
SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH, MAINTAINING
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR THREE DAYS OF RAINY WEATHER,
LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW 60 TO 90% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH
OF RAIN FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90 WITH A 50 TO 70% CHANCE FOR
AREAS TO THE SOUTH. THE PROBABILITY FOR OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN
THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS MUCH LOWER RANGING 20 TO 40% AND CONFINED
MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THIS SHOWS THAT
DESPITE THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER, WIDESPREAD FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY BUT WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES WHICH CAN
OCCUR IN THE PRESENCE OF CLOSED LOWS AS SHOWN IN CONCEPTUAL
MODELS FROM LOCAL RESEARCH.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AGAIN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH JUST REACHING KALB AND KPSF. KGFL HAS ALREADY CLEARED
THIS MORNING. KALB AND KPSF SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS THIS MORNING.
KPOU WILL LIKELY HAVE LINGERING THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH TOMORROW. AFTER A MOSTLY CLEAR START TODAY, DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP WITH CIGS AROUND 5,000 FT TO
7,000 FT AFTER 17Z. HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU AROUND 21Z THIS EVENING
HOWEVER NBM GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LESS
THAN 20%. WITH A DRY AIRMASS PREVAILING OVER THE REGION TODAY,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT RAIN WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND IF
ANY SHOWERS DO OCCUR SO THIS WAS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.
WINDS CONTINUE TO HOLD NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WINDS THIS MORNING 5 KT OR LESS BEFORE PICKING BACK UP BY NOON (15Z-
18Z) WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KT AND BECOMING GUSTY UP TO 25 KT BY AFTERNOON
(18Z). WINDS THEN DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AGAIN WITH SPEEDS UNDER
5 KT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. DEFINITE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ038>041-043-
047-048-051-054-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...53
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