043
FXUS61 KALY 211736
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY FOR
SUNDAY (DAY 3). HAVE ALSO LOWERED FORECAST MAX TEMPS FROM NBM
SUNDAY DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE AND SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AFTER A MAINLY DRY SATURDAY, AT LEAST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
2) COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH SHOWER CHANCES PERSISTING ESPECIALLY AREAS NEAR
AND NORTH OF I-90.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY SATURDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS,
SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BECOME, AS SOME HIGHER-RES CAMS SUGGEST A WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWARD ALONG MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, POTENTIALLY BRINGING A SWATCH OF LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY. WILL NEED
TO WATCH TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24-HOURS TO SEE IF THESE MORE
EXTREME CAMS ARE BEING INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PROCESSES OR NOT. 12Z/21 HREFS INDICATING 6-HOUR PROBS FOR
>1"/RAINFALL ENDING 8 AM SUNDAY AT 20-30%, AND 10-20% FOR >2"
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, MAINLY REFLECTING THE HIGHER QPF CAMS.
AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN MID MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THIS FRONT, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY
(CAPES 500-1000 J/KG) TO BUILD AMID 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KT
FOR SOME STRONGER LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
INSTABILITY IS GREATEST FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ASSUMING A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL FORCING LOOKS STRONGER ACROSS THE
SW ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION. SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK HAS PLACED AREAS MAINLY SOUTH/EAST OF I-88 IN THE
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AS WELL AS SEVERE HAIL GIVEN
THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND COOLING MID LEVELS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UPPER LEVEL LOW/COLD POOL ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH/NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST. IN ADDITION, AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PIVOT AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW, FORCING AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITHIN ANY TALLER CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS/CLUSTERS THAT DEVELOP.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY SKC SKIES WITH
FEW/SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD
COVER INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH TOMORROW. MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG/MIST DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KPSF NEAR SUNRISE
TOMORROW MORNING, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FOLLOWING TAF CYCLES. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
REMAIN 5-10 KT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND/OR CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS
THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST 5-10 KT BY TOMORROW MID MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12/24
AVIATION...53
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