750
FXUS61 KALY 012245
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
545 PM EST THU JAN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG
WITH BRISK WINDS.
2. ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
3. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES ARE COLD TO START 2026, RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER 20S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. BRISK
W-NW WINDS GUSTING 25-40 MPH AT TIMES IS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS, BUT WILL NOT BECOME CALM. SO COMBINED WITH
VERY COLD LOW TEMPERATURES OF NEAR -5F IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
AROUND 10F ABOVE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, A LIGHT BREEZE
AT 5-10 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS(FEELS-LIKE) TEMPERATURES
AS COLD AS -15F TO -5F IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO 0F TO 10F IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THESE VALUES ARE SHY OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT ANYONE OUTDOORS SHOULD DRESS WARMLY AND IN
LAYERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
W-NW FLOW THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS RISING TO ~750 MB PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL RESULT IN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH EXTREME LAKE-
INDUCED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DUE TO A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN
PLACE AND LAKE ONTARIO SURFACE TEMPERATURE +5C, SOME OF THESE
BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SW ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER, ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE MINOR AS IN SUCH COLD/DRY ENVIRONMENTS SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TYPICALLY DOES NOT EXTEND THIS FAR INLAND. HEAVIER
SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS IN CENTRAL NY CLOSER TO LAKE
ONTARIO.
WIND SHIFTS TO A MORE NW DIRECTION ON FRI AS A WEAK TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH, SO SCATTERED FRAGMENTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
MAY MAKE IT DOWN AT LEAST PARTS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY, WITH
FLURRIES IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AGAIN, ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE MINOR < 1". LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH
INTO THE SW ADIRONDACKS FRI NIGHT AS THE FLOW TRAJECTORY BACKS.
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE 1-3" IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A COUPLE WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND MON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE SE
CONUS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
EACH DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE
AREA, WITH CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES FOR > 1" SNOW ONLY AROUND
5-20% SAT NIGHT AND 10-30% MON-MON NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD, WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS SUBSIDING TONIGHT AND BECOMING LIGHT & VARIABLE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY AT KPSF, WITH UPSLOPE MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FOR
ALL TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS, WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS EXPECTED AT KPOU/KPSF BY LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...17
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