408
FXUS61 KALY 281823
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
223 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE DURING THIS UPDATE AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1)TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK BEFORE THE BRIEF INTRODUCTION OF AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL
AIRMASS LEADS TO BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
2)A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. DESPITE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCES (~10-70%) FOR AT LEAST 0.25" GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN A LACK OF RESULTING FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT, WE REMAIN UNDER BROAD
TROUGHING ALOFT WITH WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ADVECTING
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO LOWER TO MORE SEASONABLY NORMAL LEVELS TODAY WITH
HIGHS SPANNING THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S. BY LATE TONIGHT, A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH ALOFT WILL HAVE
DEPARTED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, ALLOWING FLOW TO BEGIN BACKING
TO THE WEST. THIS NEW FLOW REGIME, PAIRED WITH DEEP MIXING;
LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING INTO VALLEY AREAS; AND A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY ALLOW HIGHS TO
TOMORROW TO RISE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, A POTENT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BE SINKING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM QUEBEC.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RESULT IN THE BRIEF ADVECTION OF AN ANOMALOUSLY
COOL AIRMASS (1.5 TO 2 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL) AND SUBSEQUENT
BELOW-NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL THEREFORE
SPAN THE 50S TO LOW/MID 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FALLING TO
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. BUT THE SWIFT DEPARTURE OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THE BUILDING IN OF A HIGH FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A POTENT SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS
TO BE OUT NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. HOWEVER,
DIFFERENCES SHOWN IN BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO DRIVE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
SPATIAL SPREAD OF SHOWERS AND THE RESULTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AS
OF THIS UPDATE, MOST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE LARGELY TO OUR EAST THEREBY ALSO KEEPING THE
CORE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE BETTER FORCING TO OUR EAST. WE
ERRED ON THE SIDE OF THIS SOLUTION WITH THIS FORECAST AS THIS IS
SIMILAR TO THE TRENDS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS WOULD ULTIMATELY LIMIT THE RAINFALL SEEN TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TO LESS THAN 0.1". AREAS TO THE
EAST, AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE PERSISTENT, MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT COULD LEAD TO GREATER QPF, WOULD
THEREFORE SEE THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 0.1" TO
0.2". GIVEN OUR DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS,
AS WELL AS THE LONGER DURATION OF THE RAINFALL, THESE AMOUNTS
WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AND POSE NO FLOODING CONCERNS. THAT SAID,
EVEN THE OUTLYING SOLUTION WHEREIN THE THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
IS FARTHER WEST, KEEPS RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND OR UNDER 0.25"
TO 0.5". THEREFORE, WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS EVENT WILL
NOT CREATE ANY FLOODING.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS WELL. CURRENT KENX
RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT REFLECTIVITY OVER THE REGION FROM A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR
EAST. DRIZZLE TO ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST COULD REACH THE GROUND AT ALL OF THE SITES OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS UNTIL ABOUT 23Z THIS EVENING. THIS IS SHOWN IN A PROB30.
BROKEN AND OVERCAST LOW STRATIFORM CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO FEW LOW LEVEL CUMULUS
AND THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PREDOMINANT AFTER ABOUT 15Z TOMORROW.
WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON HOLD FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ABOUT 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
ESPECIALLY AT KPSF. WINDS THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND DECREASE TO
5-10 KT AFTER SUNSET AND THEN 5 KT OR LESS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
TOMORROW AFTER SUNRISE WINDS QUICKLY PICK BACK UP FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KT WITH GUSTS AGAIN UP TO 20 KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...53
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