624  
FXUS61 KALY 071102  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
702 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
VERY HUMID AND HOT TODAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY  
WINDS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN AND  
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS OUT OF  
CANADA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-90 AS THE  
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE CHANTAL TRACK INTO THE MID-  
ATLANTIC. MUGGY AND VERY WARM AGAIN TOMORROW WITH ADDITIONAL  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS  
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 AS OUR COLD FRONT CONTINUES SLOWLY TRACKING  
SOUTHWARD.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO THE  
MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY TODAY DUE TO THE  
COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S  
AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS.  
 
- AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE  
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON  
INTO THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVY  
RAIN CAN REPEATEDLY IMPACT A GIVEN AREA AND LOCALLY DAMAGING  
WINDS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.  
 
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, EASTERN  
CATSKILLS INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE REMNANTS OF  
CHANTAL TRACK INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
WE START THE DAY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AS BROAD RIDGING  
PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST WHILE A COLD FRONT POSITIONED WELL  
TO OUT NORTH IN SOUTHERN CANADA SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHWARD. LATEST  
WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL  
CYCLONE CHANTAL RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO  
VA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT CIRRUS  
CLOUDS FROM CHANTAL NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OUR REGION THIS  
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECT SUN TO FADE  
BEHIND INCREASING CIRRUS. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE UNCOMFORTABLY  
HUMID TODAY AS PWATS RISE TO 1.5 - 2.25" WITH DEW POINTS  
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH  
HUMIDITY, INSOLATION, AND WEAK CAPPING WILL EASILY ALLOW  
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING  
WITH ML CAPE VALUES RISING TO 1.5K TO 2K J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON.  
IN ADDITION, 850HPA ISOTHERMS AGAIN RANGING +17C TO +18C WILL  
RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.  
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY, EXPECT DANGEROUS HEAT  
INDEX VALUES OR "FEEL- LIKE" TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID  
TO UPPER 90S. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH  
OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED THE 95F CRITERIA IS IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT,  
MOHAWK VALLEY, AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE WE ISSUED THE HEAT  
ADVISORY. SENSITIVE POPULATIONS SHOULD LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR  
ACTIVITIES AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, EVEN IF NOT THIRSTY, TO  
STAY HYDRATED. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY WERE  
CLOSE TO THE CRITERIA BUT GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND  
SHOWER POTENTIAL FROM THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL, HELD OFF ON HEAT  
ADVISORIES THERE.  
 
THERE WILL BE TWO MAIN REGIONS TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY  
RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST  
AREA WILL ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE  
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON (18 - 21 UTC) INTO  
EARLY EVENING. OUR COLD FRONT SINKING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA  
WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND THEREFORE WILL GIVE AMPLE TIME FOR  
THIS REGION TO DESTABILIZE IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH HUMIDITY AND  
INSOLATION. IN FACT, THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS THAT SUCH CONDITIONS  
SHOULD GENERATE SB CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2K J/KG. BY THE TIME  
THE FRONT APPROACHES BY MID TO LATE P.M AND ERODES ANY MINIMAL  
CAP, HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS/AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN  
QUICKLY BECOMING FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY GIVEN WEAK DEEP  
LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20-25KT ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE  
FRONT. WITH HIGH FZ HEIGHTS/WARM CLOUD DEPTHS 13-14KFT AND HIGH  
PWATS ~2", HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN EASILY OCCUR AND COULD  
TRAIN/REPEATEDLY IMPACT OVER AN AREA AS CLOUD LAYER WINDS REMAIN  
PARALLEL TO 850HPA WINDS. THE HREF SHOWS A BROAD REGION OF  
30-50% PROBABILITIES FOR 3-HRLY QPF AMOUNTS TO EXCEED 1 INCH  
BETWEEN 18 - 00 UTC ORIENTED ALONG THE FRONT AND THESE  
PROBABILITIES EXTEND INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.  
WPC EXPANDED ITS SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) IN ITS DAY 1 ERO  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO PARTS OF ONEIDA COUNTY BUT STOPS  
RIGHT AT THE HERKIMER COUNTY BORDER WHERE THE MARGINAL RISK  
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) CONTINUES. THIS MAKES SENSE AS 3-HRLY FLASH FLOOD  
GUIDANCE IS QUITE HIGH AT 2.25 - 3 INCHES SO ANY FLOODING  
IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE TYPICAL TROUBLE SPOTS/POOR  
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS. REGARDLESS, WE WILL MAINTAIN A CLOSE  
EYE ON POTENTIAL LOCALIZED FLOODING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO  
THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD GROW UPSCALE ENOUGH TO RESULT  
IN LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS MAINLY FROM WET MICROBURSTS GIVEN  
DCAPE VALUES >500 J/KG BUT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID-  
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMITED TO 5.5 - 6C/KM, ANY STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED. SPC EXPANDED ITS MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL  
1 OF 5) IN ITS DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK TO COVER MORE OF THE  
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY BUT GIVEN THE LATE  
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT, SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED.  
 
THE SECOND AREA TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY DOWNPOUR POTENTIAL WILL BE  
SOUTH OF I-90 MAINLY IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY  
AND NW CT/SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE WHERE MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF  
THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MAY RESULT IN DISORGANIZED AREAS OF  
RAIN AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE REMNANT  
CIRCULATION OF CHANTAL WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY BECOME SHEARED  
OUT AND REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH CROSSING INTO THE DELMARVA,  
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DIRECT LEFTOVER WEAK TROUGHING TOWARDS  
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SUFFICIENT WEAK FORCING AHEAD OF THE  
TROUGH COMBINED WITH MID- LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN A REGION OF VERY  
HIGH PWATS (RANKING AMONG THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE 30 YR CFSR  
MODEL CLIMO) LOOKS TO RESULT IN A FEW AREAS OF RAIN AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH  
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ~13-14KFT THAT CAN EASILY SUPPORT EFFICIENT  
WARM RAIN PROCESSES. WHILE THERE IS RATHER GOOD CONSENSUS ON  
SHOWERS REACHING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES, THERE IS DISCREPANCY ON THE  
RESULTANT QPF. THE HREF PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS NEARLY 50%  
CHANCE THAT 3-HRLY QPF EXCEEDS 1 INCH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE QPF  
SPREAD FROM THE NBM DURING THIS WINDOW IS LIMITED TO BETWEEN 0  
AND 0.25". THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN  
THE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT BUT WEAK FORCING MAY LIMIT THE  
COVERAGE. WPC MAINTAINED A BROAD BRUSHED MARGINAL RISK IN ITS  
DAY 1 ERO THAT INCLUDES THESE SOUTHERN ZONES. WE MAINTAINED THE  
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON  
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND GIVEN VERY WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE  
COLUMN <20KTS, LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR FROM SLOW MOVING  
STORMS OR WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY IMPACT.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MAINLY FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-90  
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH/EAST THROUGH THE  
REGION.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT AS OUR COLD FRONT  
CONTINUES ITS SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF RAIN AND LOCALLY HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE FRONT WITH STORMS DIMINISHING AFTER  
MIDNIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING, THE FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED  
ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH/EAST.  
THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 WILL REMAIN  
VERY WARM AND VERY HUMID AS PWATS REMAIN HIGH AROUND 2". WHILE  
THE 850HPA ISOTHERMS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED AT +17C TO +18C,  
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD LIMIT  
DAYTIME HEATING AND THEREFORE WE ARE NOT AS CONFIDENT IN  
TEMPERATURES BECOMING WARM ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL HEAT  
ADVISORIES. IT WILL BE CLOSE THOUGH AS OUR LATEST FORECAST SHOWS  
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH DEW POINTS  
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES OR  
"FEEL-LIKE" TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN FAR SOUTHERN  
ULSTER/DUTCHESS/LITCHFIELD. SUCH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS  
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN SB CAPE VALUES  
RANGING 1000 - 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, NW CT,  
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WITH DEEP LAYER  
SHEAR VALUES 20-30KTS AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES  
AROUND 6C/KM, WE WILL ONCE AGAIN NEED TO MONITOR SEVERE WEATHER  
AND HEAVY DOWNPOUR POTENTIAL AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD  
THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAINTAINS ITS MARGINAL RISK  
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) ACROSS THESE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH DAMAGING WINDS  
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE STORM AND WPC CONTINUES IT  
MARGINAL RISK FOCUSED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES IN ITS DAY 2  
ERO. AGAIN, HIGH PWATS/HIGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND CLOUD LAYER  
MEAN WINDS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT HEAVY  
RAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED  
FLOODING. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT  
NORTH/WEST WILL EXPERIENCE LOWERING HUMIDITY THROUGH THE DAY AS  
NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA BUT  
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE VERY WARM REACHING INTO THE MID TO  
UPPER 80S WITH UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.  
POPS TREND LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES TO  
OUR SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING IN ITS WAKE LEADING TO  
PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES AND MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY.  
 
WE FINALLY GET A BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY AS THE  
FRONT SETTLES TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER  
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM ALBEIT NOT  
AS HUMID AS WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT SUPPORTING  
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH UPPER  
70S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TROUGHING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED  
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BY WED NIGHT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS  
REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH/WEST. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE  
POPS WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE FRONT  
REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE  
TROUGH MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE  
BOUNDARY. SOME MEMBERS OF GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGEST A WEAK SFC LOW  
DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN MORE ORGANIZED AREAS  
OF RAIN BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN  
CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHERN ZONES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, WED  
NIGHT REMAINS WARM AND A BIT MUGGY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DEW  
POINTS IN THE 60S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INCLUDING CHANCE AND EVEN LIKELY POPS FOR  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS)  
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN  
CANADA GRADUALLY SWINGS SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST  
RESULTING IN WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT.  
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE FROM WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF  
AN INCOMING WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY LOOKS TO ALSO REDUCE  
TEMPERATURES IN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS BUT WE  
SHOULD STILL REMAIN SEASONABLE FOR MID-JULY. HUMIDITY LEVELS  
ALSO TREND HIGHER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS THE WARM FRONT LIFT  
NORTH/EASTWARD AND LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ONCE  
AGAIN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LOOKS TO EXIT TO OUR EAST BY THE  
WEEKEND WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ITS WAKE OVER THE  
NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DRIER CONDITIONS AND WE TRENDED  
POPS LOWER BY SATURDAY TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW-END CHANCE  
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT SPEED OF THE TROUGH.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...EXPECTING PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE  
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS. HIGH END MVFR  
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY AT KPSF/KPOU/KGFL DUE TO MIST/LOW STRATUS WILL  
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS  
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHICH  
HAVE BEEN ADDRESSED BY PROB30 GROUPS. LATE IN THE PERIOD,  
MVFR/HIGH-END IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH  
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH THE HIGHER END OF THE IMPACTS  
HOLDING TOWARDS AROUND TO JUST AFTER 07/12Z. WINDS WILL BE  
AROUND 5 KT FROM THE S/SE THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO 5-10 KT  
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
 
 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS  
EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.  
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
NYZ038-040-041-043-049-050-052-053-083-084.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...SPECIALE  
NEAR TERM...SPECIALE  
SHORT TERM...SPECIALE  
LONG TERM...SPECIALE  
AVIATION...SPECK  
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