975
FXUS61 KALY 010741
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
341 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECAYING MCS IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION OUT AHEAD
OF IT. SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY IS LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT THANKS TO A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER,
BUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER GUST OR LARGE HAIL CAN'T BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT. WAS ALSO ABLE TO LOWER TEMPS TONIGHT FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST/NBM.
FOR TODAY, SPC HAS MOST OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER TOMORROW,
ALTHOUGH THE MARGINAL RISK CLIPS THE SOUTHERN ADKS.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH NO CHANGES TO EXISTING HEADLINES OR OUR MESSAGING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WHEN HEATRISK IMPACTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE MAJOR TO
LOCALLY EXTREME CATEGORIES.
2) THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE TODAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... AS OF 3:40 AM EDT, TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 60S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OUR AREA WHERE THERE HAS BEEN
CONVECTION TO LOCALLY IN THE MID 70S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT CONVECTION,
BUT ARE STILL UNCOMFORTABLE MUGGY DEW POINTS. HAVE ALSO ADDED IN
PATCHY FOG THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, AND IT COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE IN SOME SPOTS THAT SAW HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY OR EARLIER
TONIGHT.
A 596 DAM CLOSED UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING SOUTH OF THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. 850 TEMPS CLIMB TO +22C (TODAY)
TO +24C (THU), WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S TODAY,
WITH SOME LOW 100S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TOMORROW. THE HEAT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S BOTH DAYS. WE
KNOCKED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE NBM, WHICH
CONTINUES TO BE UNREASONABLY HIGH WITH BOTH. HOWEVER, WE WILL STILL
SEE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES OVER 100 TODAY AND TOMORROW, POSSIBLY UP
TO 110 FOR PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY. IF CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED THEN THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS/HEAT INDICES
LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THURSDAY, LESS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED, AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY
OF THE WEEK. WHILE FORECAST HEAT INDICES TODAY ARE A COUPLE
DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE EXISTING HEADLINES AS MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL STILL
EXPERIENCE DANGEROUS TO LOCALLY EXTREME HEAT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN. BOTH DAYS WILL
REMAIN QUITE HOT, WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AGAIN WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST
VALLEY AREAS. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. WITH TEMPS AND DEW POINTS A COUPLE
DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS, SOME AREAS IN THE EXTREME
HEAT WARNING MAY BE ABLE TO BE DOWNGRADED TO ADVISORIES FOR
FRIDAY. SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S WITH MORE CONVECTION AROUND, BUT ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. A STRONGER COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES
TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID AND UPPER 80S (LOW 90S
POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY), BUT HEAT INDICES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY ONWARDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADKS, BUT HAS WEAKENED TO THE POINT WHERE THERE IS NO LONGER ANY
LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE CATSKILLS EAST AND SOUTH, AND HAS DEVELOPED AT THE
NOSE OF A NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING LOW-LEVEL THETA RIDGE AND
ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES (OFBS) FROM CONVECTION
YESTERDAY AND EARLIER TONIGHT WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. WHILE THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SBCAPE, THERE
IS 1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE FROM THE CATSKILLS SOUTH AND WEST
WITH AROUND 30 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. 00Z ALY SOUNDING SHOWED A
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AND STABLE LAYER THAT SHOULD PREVENT MUCH
WIND FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE GROUND WITH THIS CONVECTION. CAN'T
TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM PUNCHING THROUGH THIS STABLE
LAYER, OR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL, BUT OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS LOW. WE HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTS OF
UP TO 20-30 MPH ON THE NYS MESONET AS THIS CONVECTION HAS MOVED
OVERHEAD, BUT NOTHING SEVERE SO FAR. CAMS HAVE STRUGGLED
MIGHTILY WITH THIS CONVECTION, AND WHILE THEY GENERALLY HAVE IT
DISSIPATING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WE ARE NOT CONVINCED GIVEN
THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY, SO WILL MENTION CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORCING IS LESS EVIDENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW A COUPLE RIPPLES MOVING OVERTOP THE UPPER RIDGE. WHILE THE CAP
WILL BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY, IT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS
SOME PREVIOUS GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING IT MIGHT BE. WITH NUMEROUS
OFBS LEFTOVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION, THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN YESTERDAY AND
HODOGRAPHS ARE SHORTER, SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS AS OPPOSED TO MORE COHERENT LINE SEGMENTS LIKE YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID, CAPE VALUES >3000J/KG AND DCAPE >1000 J/KG WILL LEAD TO A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. DESPITE HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS, IMPRESSIVE CAPE THROUGH THE HGZ AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME LARGE HAIL AS WELL.
CONVECTIVE THREAT LOOKS LOWER THURSDAY, WITH MORE CAPPING, THE RIDGE
AXIS A LITTLE CLOSER, AND THE BETTER UPPER FORCING DISPLACED NORTH
OF THE REGION. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADKS, LIKELY DUE TO HIGH TO EXTREME CAPE AGAIN AND SLIGHTLY MORE
SHEAR, BUT THE THREAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL UPON SOME SORT OF TRIGGER
MECHANISM BEING ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EACH DAY WILL STILL FEATURE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY, WITH
STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER WESTERLY FLOW AS THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN, SO SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH DETAILS
REMAIN FUZZY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WHILE FOG/MIST HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AT
GFL/PSF, A WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS IS APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF WINDS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL
HELP MIX OUT THE FOG/MIST AT GFL, OR IF IT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH THAT
FOG/MIST IS ABLE TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND/OR DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT
GETS TO ALB/GFL, SO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN FOG/MIST PERSISTING AT PSF
WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE AND LIKELY A
FEW HOURS BEYOND. FOR ALB, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WHETHER OR NOT
FOG WILL FORM, BUT IF IT DOES BEST CHANCE IS RIGHT AROUND OR JUST
AFTER SUNRISE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT POU, BUT
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 08-09Z.
FORTUNATELY, BY 12Z, AND REMNANT SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AND FOG SHOULD HAVE MIXED OUT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, BUT
SOME POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH MID-MORNING.
LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING WITH JUST SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE AND LOCATION IS LOW. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE FOR POU AND
POSSIBLY PSF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY WITH SCT TO BKN MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT,
INCREASING TO 4-8 KT FROM THE S/SW TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KT OR LESS AFTER
SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
CLIMATE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JULY 1:
ALBANY: 99 (1913)
GLENS FALLS: 100 (1913)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 99 (1933)
JULY 2:
ALBANY: 98 (1966, 1901)
GLENS FALLS: 96 (1911, 1901)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 97 (1966)
JULY 3:
ALBANY: 102 (1911)
GLENS FALLS: 101 (1911)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 103 (1966)
LAST 100-DEGREE DAY:
ALBANY: SEPTEMBER 3, 1953
GLENS FALLS: JULY 10, 1988
POUGHKEEPSIE: JUNE 24, 2025
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR NYZ038>041-043-047>054-059>061-063>066-083-084.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NYZ032-033-042-058-082.
MA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MAZ025.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MAZ001.
VT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR VTZ013-015.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
VTZ014.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
CLIMATE...33
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