942
FXUS61 KALY 031115
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
715 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES BUT THERE IS NOW A LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TACONICS TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL RATES CAN RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING, WITH AREAS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO RENEWED FLOODING.
2) THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND,
EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARD BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TACONICS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP FETCH OF MOISTURE
STREAMING FROM THE GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE TROUGH STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT TOWARDS 12 UTC
AND WITH A JET STREAK STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHEAST, STRONG
LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERLAPPING SUCH A MOISTURE
RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP AMPLIFY RAINFALL RATES ACROSS EASTERN
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW THE CLASSIC TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH HIGH
FREEZING HEIGHTS SUPPORTING EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST
HREF SHOWS A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED RIBBON OF MEDIUM TO
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR 3-HRLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 09 TO 15
UTC EXCEEDING 1" FOCUSED IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY INTO NW CT AND
NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS EVEN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 2" OF
RAIN IN A 3-HR PERIOD DURING THIS WINDOW. THIS MATCHES THE
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) DAY 1 ERO PLACEMENT AND WILL FEATURE
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES TO RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. THEY ALSO
SHOW A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
EXTENDING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WITH SMALL CORFIDI VECTORS
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS
MORNING. WHILE THE MID- HUDSON VALLEY INTO NW CT AND PARTS OF
WESTERN MA MISSED OUT ON THE EXTREME RAINFALL FROM LAST WEEK,
THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL NONETHELESS INCREASE SHOULD
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES PERSIST OVER A GIVEN AREA. LUCKILY, THE
INCOMING TROUGH WILL LIMIT THE DURATION OF THE HIGH RAINFALL
RATES AND HELP SHIFT IT FURTHER INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 15 - 18 UTC,
DECREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 15 UTC MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE LATEST HREF PMM GUIDANCE SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR 0.5 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY
WHERE HEAVY RAIN CAN PERSIST.
AFTER THE MAIN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN EXITS INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
MID-MORNING, WE ENTER INTO A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS AND SFC COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST BY 15 -
21 UTC. SHOULD SUFFICIENT BREAKS OF SUN OR THINNING OF CLOUD
COVERAGE OCCUR, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE FURTHER. CAMS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
HELP FOCUS MOISTURE AND LIFT, LIKELY SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY BECOME SATURATED
FROM THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING RAINFALL WILL BE MORE
VULNERABLE TO LOCALIZED FLOODING BUT GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE FRONT AND ANY CONVECTION, ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING
SHOULD BE ISOLATED/LOCALIZED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THERE LOOKS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FROM MID-
MORNING THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FOR CLOUDS TO THIN ENOUGH
OR EVEN BRIEFLY BREAK FOR INSOLATION. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT INCLUDING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO EVEN LOW
70S TODAY, ANY INSOLATION WILL EASILY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED
SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAMS SHOWING 1000 - 2000J/KG
DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THERE SHOULD A LONGER DELAY BEFORE THE
FRONT ARRIVES. STRONG DYNAMICS/LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMN WITH VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS ALSO SUPPORTING
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS FAVORS A HIGH SHEAR, LOW/MODEST CAPE
ENVIRONMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AMOUNTS RANGING 40 TO 50KTS AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. THIS CAN EASILY SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
ALLOW UPDRAFTS TO GROW UPSCALE, SHOULD INSTABILITY BE
SUFFICIENT. THE LATEST PROBABILITIES FOR STRONG 2-5KM UPDRAFT
HELICITY VALUES FROM THE HREF ARE RATHER LOW AT ONLY 10-20% AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTING THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO DESTABILIZE BETWEEN THE
EXITING HEAVY RAIN AND INCOMING CONVECTIVE LINE. HOWEVER, THE
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR AND STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE REASONS TO
MAINTAIN A WATCHFUL EYE ON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
EVEN IF THEY REMAIN LOW TOPPED AS THEY CAN STILL BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ANY UPDRAFTS BECOME
TALL ENOUGH. THE SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO SHOW
THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FROM HUDSON RIVER EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT NOW INCLUDES A LOW CHANCE (2%) CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
VEERING WINDS.
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN GUSTY AND
SHIFT TO THE WEST REACHING UP TO 25-30KTS PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AS COOL/MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECT INTO THE REGION. DEW
POINTS WILL NOTICEABLY DROP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BRINGING
RELIEF FROM THE UNCOMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALB, PSF, AND
GFL THIS MORNING WHILE POU CIGS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARDS FROM VFR
TO MVFR THIS MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ALREADY EXITING
INTO NEW ENGLAND BUT MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH 17-18
UTC. THEN, A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BETWEEN 16 AND 20 UTC AT ALL TERMINALS.
ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM CAN RESULT IN VIS AND CIGS DROPPING
TO MVFR/IFR BRIEFLY WITH BRIEF STRONGER WINDS OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. THIS IS REFLECTED IN PROB30 GROUPS. WINDS THEN SHIFT
TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20-30 KTS
BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET. THEREAFTER, WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FINAL
SEVERAL HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...23
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