780
FXUS61 KALY 311006
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
606 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PATCHY DENSE FOG CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. USE
EXTRA CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG CAN
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1)MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING COULD
OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DEPARTING THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS BRINGS HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY EVENING. THERE ARE SOME FLUCTUATIONS WITH THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE POSITION AND SPEED OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AS IT COULD SLOW DOWN TO OUR NORTH. THE LATEST FORECAST
SUPPORTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO SEE
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY,
AND PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION BETWEEN 0.5
INCHES AND 1 INCH. WHILE ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COULD RANGE BETWEEN A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ONE KEY FORECAST ELEMENT
THAT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE
BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL STAYS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. HOWEVER, A
SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE TRACK COULD BRING LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOODING CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS
FORECAST TIME FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY, AND
LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION AS THESE LOCATIONS MISSED THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM THIS WEEK'S EVENT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
IN STORE FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. TYPICAL NUISANCE SPOTS AND POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING IMPACTS IF A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR OCCURS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY, AND LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY, THERE ARE TWO SCENARIOS THAT COULD OCCUR FOR MONDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY EVENING FOR ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SCENARIO NUMBER ONE IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTED
BY THE LATEST FORECAST.
SCENARIO 1: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE MOVES OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST BRINGING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS,
MID- HUDSON VALLEY, TACONICS, BERKSHIRES, LITCHFIELD HILLS, AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT. RAINFALL TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM 8 AM MONDAY
TO 8 PM MONDAY TO 0.5 INCHES TO 1 INCH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON RAINFALL TOTALS AS THEY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE
MODERATE RAINFALL DOES OCCUR, AS THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITH SMALL RIVERS, CREEKS,
AND STREAMS IN THESE LOCATIONS AS ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING COULD OCCUR.
SCENARIO 2: THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STAYS FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST AND LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS THAN SCENARIO ONE COULD
OCCUR FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY, TACONICS,
BERKSHIRES, LITCHFIELD HILLS, AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
LATEST PROBABILITIES FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR
24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 8 PM MONDAY
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 1 INCH ARE STILL CONSISTENT FROM
YESTERDAY'S AFTERNOON FORECAST RANGING BETWEEN 30 AND 40
PERCENT. FOR 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS REACHING OR EXCEEDING
0.5 INCHES IS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 PERCENT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
FOR WIDESPREAD TOTALS TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 INCHES AND 0.5 INCHES. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST TRENDS AND KEEP UP TO
DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/SAT...LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW FOG WAS HARDER TO
COME BY AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS INITIALLY
ANTICIPATED BUT DEGRADED FLYING CONDITIONS FROM IFR CIGS STILL
OCCURRED AT POU AND PSF. WHILE IFR CIGS AT PSF HAVE IMPROVED TO
VFR, STILL INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VIS FROM FOG AND IFR
CIGS THROUGH 14 UTC IN CASE REDUCED FLYING CONDITIONS RETURN.
AFTER 14 UTC, ALL TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR. WE
REMOVED PROB30 GROUPS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT GFL
AND PSF AS LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOW EVEN LESS
SHOWER COVERAGE. BY 23 - 01 UTC, SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH FOG
POTENTIALLY REDEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND A HUMID ENVIRONMENT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07/05
AVIATION...31
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