670
FXUS61 KALY 282335
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
735 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED TO ACCOUNT FOR SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE ACCUMULATION LOOKS
LITTLE TO NONE, SOME PASSING SNOW FLAKES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND
GUSTS ABOVE LATEST NBM BASED ON CURRENT AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS. SOME GUSTS MAY REACH AROUND 30 MPH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WHILE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, HAVE
INCREASED WIND GUSTS EACH DAY DURING PEAK MIXING, ALTHOUGH GUSTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY ISSUES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING, BUT LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION, BREEZY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN A WINTRY-FEEL TO THE REST OF THE DAY.
2) A STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
FLOODING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PARTS OF WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND, ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE ALSO REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST FOR TODAY. THE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA, BUT WILL BE EXITING OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. THERE IS RATHER CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE, WITH 850 HPA TEMPS CURRENTLY IN
THE -10 C TO -15 C RANGE OVER THE AREA. THIS COLD POOL HAS BEEN
KEEPING SURFACE TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY, WITH MOST AREAS
ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. IN ADDITION, RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED THANKS TO
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT. THESE
INSTABILITY-FORCED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE A TYPICAL EARLY-SPRING
LOOK ON THE RADAR, WITH VERY BRIEF BURSTS OF PRECIP. WHILE MANY
AREAS WILL SEE BRIEF SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES THROUGH THIS
EVENING, LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY
QUICK NATURE OF THE PRECIP, ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE
30S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A FEW GRASSY AREAS COULD SEE A
BRIEF COATING, BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WITH THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT, THE GOOD MIXING WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. THE
COMBINATION OF THE CHILLY TEMPS, PASSING SNOW FLAKES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEELS QUITE WINTRY AND PEOPLE SPENDING
TIME OCCURS WILL NEED TO BE DRESSED IN WINTER COATS AND HATS, AS
OPPOSED TO A LIGHT SPRING JACKET. THE THREAT FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BUT IT
WILL STAY CONTINUED CHILLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPS MORE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS, AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A FEW DRY DAYS, THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN TO
START AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW MUCH PRECIP
OCCURS DURING THIS TIME AND JUST HOW FAR THE BOUNDARY LIFTS, BUT
MOST OF THE REGION APPEARS IT SHOULD GET INTO THE STORM'S WARM
SECTOR BY LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP AHEAD AND
ALONG THE STORM'S COLD FRONT. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE CLEARING
OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT
DROPS SOUTHWARD AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WHILE THERE IS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, THE LATEST NBM (VERSION 5.0
GUIDANCE) SUGGEST MOST AREAS WILL SEE UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN IN
TOTAL WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS AROUND A 50-75% CHANCE
OF AN INCH OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS, ALTHOUGH THE REST OF
THE AREA IS UNDER 20%. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL AND
CONTINUED SNOW MELT OUT OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR RUNOFF INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE LATEST MMEFS
FROM THE NAEFS DOES SHOW SOME LOW POTENTIAL (10-30%) OF A FEW
RIVERS REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE, MAINLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
PERHAPS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
EXACT QPF AND SNOW MELT, WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS, BUT THE CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT IF ANY ISSUES DO OCCUR, THEY WILL BE RELATIVELY
MINOR AND MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR
DURING THE LATE WEEK. SOME MODEL SUGGESTS SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS
EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THAT SYSTEM, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS, BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THAT POTENTIAL AS IT
GETS CLOSER, AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOT OF SPREAD FOR
THAT FAR OUT.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MONDAY, DESPITE
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS (CIGS 7000-10000 FT AGL) LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 8-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
WILL DECREASE TO 5-10 KT BY MIDNIGHT, THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AT
4-8 KT BY DAYBREAK. ON SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...24
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