208
FXUS61 KALY 270717
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
317 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF RAIN AND BREEZY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TODAY AS A NOR'EASTER LINGERS OFF THE NJ COAST WITH RAIN
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TOMORROW. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
IS EXPECTED, GUSTY WINDS TODAY CAN LEAD TO DOWNED TREE LIMBS
AND RESULT IN A FEW POWER OUTAGES FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND, THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHERN TACONICS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR FULLY MATURE AND OCCLUDED
NOR'EASTER HEADING TOWARDS THE NJ COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN ITS NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS A DEEP
MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE
CENTER. AS THE STORM INCHES CLOSER TO THE COAST OVER THE COMING
HOURS, HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT
RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTH AND WESTWARD INTO MORE
OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF RAIN LOOK TO OCCUR THIS MORNING BEFORE RAIN BANDS LIFT
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OUT OF OUR AREA AS DRIER AIR ALOFT WRAPS
INTO THE STORM, ALLOWING RAIN TO TRANSITION TO JUST
INTERMITTENT, PATCHY SHOWERS. THE INCOMING DRIER AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS FROM BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD EVEN SUPPORT PERIODS OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE NORTHEAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS/TACONICS/BERKSHIRES AS UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS
CONTINUED STEADY/MODERATE RAIN. WE WILL NOTE THAT SHOWALTER
VALUES TREND TOWARDS ZERO THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE DRY SLOT AS
850-500 HPA LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO 5.5-5.8C/KM. THEREFORE,
CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER IF AN
UPDRAFT CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH.
OTHERWISE, AS OUR NOR'EASTER NEARS THE COAST AND GAINS
PROXIMITY THIS MORNING, FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INVERSION THAT SHOULD PREVENT THE IMPRESSIVE ~50KT LOW-LEVEL
JET FROM FULLING MIXING TO THE SFC; HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO
BE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTS 25 TO 35MPH
WITH EVEN BRIEF INSTANCES UP TO 40-45MPH IN THE WIND ADVISORY
AREA (ESPECIALLY IN NW CT AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF WESTERN
MA). LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 30MPH REMAINS IN AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH 15 UTC BEFORE PROBABILITIES
QUICKLY TREND MUCH LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL
LOW FILLS IN. THERE WAS CONSIDERATION TO CANCEL THE WIND
ADVISORY AS PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 40MPH IS LOW
(UNDER 30%) BUT WE FELT WE SHOULD KEEP THE ADVISORY OUT AS THE
COASTAL LOW REACHES IT CLOSEST PROXIMITY BEFORE DECIDING TO
CANCEL.
PATCHY, INTERMITTENT SHOWERS TONIGHT TREND INTO STEADIER
PERIODS OF RAIN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS OUR COASTAL LOW
BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE
DREARY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS OUR COASTAL LOW WEAKENS
FURTHER WITH LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER THE BROADENING PARENT
TROUGH SUPPORT CONTINUED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. TOTAL
RAINFALL THROUGH 8PM MONDAY RANGES BETWEEN 0.5 AND 2 INCHES WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY, EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE BERKSHIRES, TACONICS, SOUTHERN GREENS, NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS. IN FACT, LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A
GREATER THAN 75% CHANCE FOR TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO EXCEED 2
INCHES IN THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS WITH EVEN A 30 TO 60%
CHANCE FOR OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN DUE TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENTS.
WHILE SUCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN LEAD TO NUISANCE FLOODING IN
LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, LATEST RIVER FORECASTS AND
ENSEMBLES FROM MMEFS OUTPUT DO NOT INDICATE ANY RIVER FLOODING
CONCERNS. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...A NOR'EASTER OFF THE NJ COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN SPARSE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE STEADIER BANDS OF
RAIN RESULTING IN MVFR VIS FINALLY LIFT NORTH AND WESTWARD BY
07 TO 11 UTC THIS MORNING INITIALLY REACHING POU AND PSF BEFORE
HEADING TO ALB AND GFL. A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN AND MVFR FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO INTERMITTENT SHOWERS BY 17 - 18 UTC. WHILE
LIGHT SHOWERS AND MVFR VIS WILL REMAIN AROUND POU AND PSF THIS
AFTERNOON, PERIODS OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS LOOK
TO RETURN TO GFL AND ALB AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SUPPORT
DOWNSLOPING. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL
PERIODS OF RAIN RESULTING IN MVFR VIS RETURN THIS EVENING AT ALL
TERMINALS. REMOVED IFR CIGS MENTION AS LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CIGS SHOULD FAVOR MVFR LEVELS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KPOU AND KPSF CONTINUES AS A ~50KT JET
REMAINS OVERHEAD AND CONTINUED LLWS AT PSF THROUGH 21 UTC TODAY.
OTHERWISE, NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THIS
MORNING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30KTS AT ALB, PSF AND
POU THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE TRENDING DOWNWARDS. STRONGEST
WINDS LIKELY AT KPOU/KPSF DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
NOR'EASTER WITH WEAKEST WINDS AT GFL.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ064>066.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...31
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