406
FXUS61 KALY 010558
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. STILL EXPECTING A LIGHT
SNOW EVENT THIS MORNING WHICH CAN LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL MAINLY
THROUGH MIDDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THIS MORNING, WITH LOCALLY SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
2) INCREASING CHANCES FOR AN INITIAL PERIOD OF SNOW ON TUESDAY
THAT CHANGES TO RAIN AND/OR A WINTRY MIX, MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH
OF I-90. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF WINTRY MIX.
3) MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL. THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT THE WARMING TREND WILL SUPPORT RIPENING AND PARTIAL MELTING
OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
THROUGH WESTERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SFC OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING A COLD FRONT AT THE SFC BENEATH IT WITH A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED
SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS SHOWN IN THE REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SHOW A PERIOD
OF SNOW EXPANDING INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
BY 09 - 12 UTC THIS MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S LIKELY
COOLING INTO THE 20S IN RESPONSE TO WET-BULBING DIABATIC COOLING
PROCESSES ONCE SNOW BEGINS, SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR
EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO INCOMING PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. WHILE
OVERALL FORCING IS WEAK, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIFT BRIEFLY
OVERLAPPING WITH THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE SO SNOW CAN TURN
STEADY FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES
SHIFTING EASTWARD THIS MORNING, TRACKING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12 - 15 UTC BEFORE
FINALLY EXITING TO OUR EAST BY 18 UTC, PUTTING AN END TO THE
SNOW. GIVEN THE BRIEF NATURE OF THE SNOW AND LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS,
ONLY EXPECTING COATING TO 1 INCH OF NEW SNOWFALL ACROSS EASTERN
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A 20 TO 40% CHANCE THAT AMOUNTS
EXCEED 1 INCH MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.
AFTER SNOW ENDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, NORTHERLY WINDS TURN
A BIT BREEZY USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE
NORTHEAST (ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE BRIEF WARM-UP WE HAD
YESTERDAY) UNDER CLEARING SKIES. LARGE SCALE AND STRENGTHENING CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, SUPPORTING
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. WE FOLLOWED SUITE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND SIDED ON THE COOLER END OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT LOW
TEMPERATURES LIKELY GIVEN PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS 75%+
CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL UNDER 10 DEGREES. IN FACT,
THERE IS A 75% CHANCE THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS FALL UNDER -5F. GIVEN WEAKENING WINDS, WE DO NOT HAVE
CONCERNS FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COMING SOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
COMING SOON.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THE KENX RADAR SHOWS TO WEAK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE CLOUDS, BUT ACCORDING TO LATEST OBSERVATIONS, NOTHING IS
REACHING THE GROUND JUST YET. LATEST GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE,
HOWEVER, THIS INITIAL BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SPATIALLY
CONSISTENT AND TRACKING THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATER THIS
MORNING. BASED ON SOME LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INDICATED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND OVERALL WEAK FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IT IS
UNCERTAIN JUST HOW THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE SNOW
SHOWERS. WHILE EACH LOOKS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RATES TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND
NOT DROP CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. BASED ON THIS
UNCERTAINTY, WE KEPT SNOW SHOWERS IN PROB30 GROUPS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS, WITH BOTH VISIBILITY AND CEILING HEIGHT, BETWEEN
10-15Z. ONCE THESE SHOWERS HAVE CONCLUDED, A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
IN CEILING HEIGHT WILL SEE CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE NORTH, BUT VARY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL
PRIMARILY FALL BELOW 10 KT, BUT A DEVELOPING BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SEE SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10-12KT WITH
GUSTS OF 15-25KT PARTICULARLY AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...12
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page