636
FXUS61 KALY 141025
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AND WIND ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT
WITH NO CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE,
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BEHIND A DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM, LINGERING SNOW SHOWER MAY
RESULT IN SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TODAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS WELL.
2) A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RENEWED MINOR
RIVER FLOODING MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW CT.
3) STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM
TUESDAY, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 3:00 AM EDT...CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR CLIPPER AS A
WEAKENING 999 MB SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO, COLLOCATED
BENEATH A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE
FEATURES WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
TODAY; THE SYSTEM'S OCCLUDED FRONT, CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL NY, WILL TRACK THROUGH OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT TODAY, TWO MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE
LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
SETUP FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS IS AS FOLLOWS: 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO
AROUND -9 TO -11C, WHILE LAKE ONTARIO SFC TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND +2 TO +3C. WITH W/NW WINDS AND A GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION,
THIS WILL ELICIT A LAKE RESPONSE, ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHTS AND SOME LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL KEEP THE
RESULTING LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED AND LIMIT THEIR INTENSITY. NEVERTHELESS, SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ADKS, WHERE
THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM NW UPSLOPE FLOW. UPSLOPE
FLOW AND LAKE MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE SOUTHERN GREENS MAY
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THERE AS WELL THIS
MORNING, ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS FROUDE NUMBERS INCREASE TO >5. UP TO 3-5" OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE WESTERN ADKS, WITH
GENERALLY LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. ACCORDINGLY, NO CHANGES MADE
TO THE EXISTING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES, ALTHOUGH THE ADVISORY
IN THE CATSKILLS MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO ITS
EXPIRATION TIME OF 12Z THIS MORNING.
AS FOR THE WINDS, LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND SOME BREAKS OF
SUN TODAY WILL HELP PROMOTE MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB, WHERE THE
LLJ LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN TO 45-50 KT THANKS TO A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
A STRENGTHENING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE COAST OF MAINE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER COULD RESULT IN
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 50 MPH TODAY IN THE NORMAL NW CHANNELED
FLOW AREAS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL DISTRICT, AND
BERKSHIRES. FOR THESE AREAS, WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IN THESE AREAS, ESPECIALLY WITH
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GUSTY WINDS UPSTREAM WITH THIS SYSTEM
YESTERDAY. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS, WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY,
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE WINDS
COULD ALSO LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW THAT FELL
YESTERDAY/THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE ADKS WHERE THE SNOW
WAS FLUFFIER.
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS BEGINNING
TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. A MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH COULD BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY, BUT OTHERWISE
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. TONIGHT WILL
BE SEASONABLY COLD WITH LOWS IN THE 10S TO 20S. SUNDAY, THE SFC
WARM FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH, AND THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A COLD
AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE WITH THE SFC HIGH RETREATING TO THE NE.
SO, WE LOWERED HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE NBM IN THE ADKS,
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGH
TERRAIN IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SUNDAY NIGHT, UPPER TROUGHING BECOMES HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
AN EXPANSIVE SFC LOW DEEPENING TO AROUND 980 MB AS IT TRACKS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, ALONG WITH
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE INDICATES SFC TEMPS
MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH. A LULL IN THE STEADY
PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND.
WE WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM'S WARM SECTOR, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S. THE SOUTHERLY LLJ CRANKS UP TO 55-65 KT, SO WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE S/SE
FAVORED AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE TACONICS AND IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.
THEN, MONDAY EVENING OR EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, THE SYSTEM'S COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. PWATS INCREASE TO UP TO 1.0 TO 1.2"
WHICH IS 4-5 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL, AND LIKELY WILL BE NEAR THE
RECORD DAILY MAX PER THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THIS
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL OVERLAP WITH VERY STRONG FORCING, WITH
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE DUE TO CVA AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A
JET STREAK TO OUR NORTH. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF WILL FURTHER ADD TO THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THEREFORE, EXPECTING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WITH AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM AROUND AN INCH TO POSSIBLY 1.5-2" IN THE CATSKILLS AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND, SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR POTENTIAL PONDING OF WATER, RIVER RISES, AND LOCALIZED ICE
JAMS WHERE ANY ICE REMAINS ON THE RIVERS (MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS). THERE IS CURRENTLY A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF MINOR
RIVER FLOODING (BEST CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND) PER THE
NAEFS AND HEFS ENSEMBLES, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
OVER THE COMING DAYS. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. MAIN QUESTIONS IF HOW MUCH (IF ANY) SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE. TIMING FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE EVENING, WHICH LOOKS TO LIMIT
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE THE THREAT FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE LLJ, EVEN MODEST
SBCAPE VALUES COULD RESULT IN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP WITH
GUSTY WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES COOL QUICKLY,
SO SOME AREAS MAY EVEN SEE PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOW
BRIEFLY BEFORE ENDING BY 12Z TUESDAY. IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY
BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE SHOWING AND EFI OF 0.8 TO 0.9 AND A SOT>1,
INDICATING FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE
GET CLOSER IN TIME.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE COLD AS WELL, WITH
850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -15C TO POSSIBLY -20C TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT DETERMINISTIC
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE NBM FOR NOW,
BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN THE COMING
DAYS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN WESTERN AREAS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS TUE,
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS MAKING IT FEEL COLDER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODERATE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH GENERALLY
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. WINDS ARE STARTING TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST NOW
WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH AND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BECOMING 10 TO 15 KTS BY THE MID-MORNING
HOURS, WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KTS. BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS,
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS. SOME
GUSTS, MAINLY AT KALB AND KPSF WILL BE AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 KTS
FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL
START TO DECREASE FOR TONIGHT AS NOCTURNAL EFFECTS TAKE OVER AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX.
RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS,
MAINLY FOR KGFL AND KPSF. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS ARE CURRENTLY VFR,
THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF IFR SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KPSF DUE
TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW, OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, ALLOWING
FOR A DRY AFTERNOON AND NO PRECIP FOR TONIGHT. BKN TO OVC
CEILINGS WILL MAINLY BE VFR TODAY, WITH CEILINGS HEIGHTS AROUND
4-5 KFT. CEILINGS WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO FEW FOR THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37 KTS. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 38 KTS. DEFINITE SHRA...SHSN...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 32 KTS. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ038>040-
047>054-058-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-
033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ042-082.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ058-
063.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VTZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...27
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page