320
FXUS61 KALY 170237
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1037 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2018
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT, AS CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE AUTUMN ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A
WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE TO THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 1037 PM EDT...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BRIEFLY RIDGING IN SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY SKIES AND THE WINDS GOING LIGHT TO CALM
BRIEFLY. THE RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT HAS ALLOWED TEMPS
TO DROP OFF, AS WE HAVE TRIED TO RETOOL THE HOURLIES BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS. MEANWHILE, SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO SET-UP DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SOME OF THESE WILL SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS NORTH OF
OLD FORGE PRIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES, THE FLOW WILL SHIFT MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE. MOST OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION/EASTERN CATSKILLS, LAKE GEORGE REGION SOUTH AND
EAST, AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES BRIEFLY MIXING IN WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WEST/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40F IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. TEMPS MAY START TO RISE SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH
THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ON WEDNESDAY, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. THIS TROUGH IS ANONYMOUSLY COLD AND MORE WINTER- LIKE
THAN TROUGHS WE TYPICALLY SEE IN THE FALL. IT ALSO WILL BRING A
STRONG COLD FRONT AND NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, SO PRECIP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
LOOKS FAIRLY SCATTERED. IT MAY BE SOMEWHAT AIDED BY AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IN UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS, BUT NOT
ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
FALLING TEMPS AND GUSTING WINDS BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT FOR
LATER IN THE DAY. EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW 850 HPA
TO FALL TO -9 TO -13 DEGREES C FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE CLEARING OUT, ALTHOUGH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY. DESPITE THE WIND, TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY,
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A
WIDESPREAD FROST AND EVEN A FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WILL
NEED A FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING FOR AREAS WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON IS STILL ONGOING (HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
CT).
IN ADDITION, THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW A BAND OF LAKE-
EFFECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE ONTARIO ON WED EVENING AND
CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT. INITIALLY, WESTERLY FLOW WILL ORIENT
THIS BAND OVER THE WESTERN DACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY, BUT AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
TROUGH, THE BAND WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS SCHOHARIE COUNTY AND
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. WITH LAKE TEMPS STILL AROUND +13 C, THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A STREAM OF HEAVY, CELLULAR ACTIVITY. AT FIRST, THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ONLY SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT AS IT COOLS
OFF, THIS SHOULD CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF UP
TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AND GRASSY, NON-
PAVED SURFACES ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER THIS
BAND.
BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE LAKE-BAND WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST
CENTRAL NY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA FOR
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE TRYING
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND PLENTY OF SUN
IS EXPECTED. DESPITE THE SUN, TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD FOR MID-
OCTOBER, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. WITH A
NORTHWEST BREEZE IN PLACE, IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER. ANOTHER
COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR OF THE CONUS
AS WE TRANSITION TOWARD A CHILLY AND MOIST TROUGH AXIS.
HOWEVER, WE BEGIN WITH FRIDAY AS THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. H850 TEMPERATURES
CLIMB WELL IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY AID IN VALLEY
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TOWARD 60F WITH MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE. THIS
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM AS IT GETS PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH LOWER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL INCREASE BOTH CLOUDS
AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. AS CHILLY
H850 TEMPERATURES APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FROM DIURNALLY - UPSLOPE -
LAKE EFFECT TO KEEP CHANCE/SCATTERED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
(LOWER PROBABILITIES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD WITH FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS). HIGHS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S ACROSS THE TERRAIN TO
LOWER HALF OF THE 50S FOR VALLEYS ON SATURDAY THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE 20S AND MID 30S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. HIGHS SUNDAY
MAINLY INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES IN FOR THE START OF THE WORK AND SCHOOL
WEEK AND DUE TO THE TRANSVERSE NATURE OF THIS HIGH, ANOTHER WARM
FRONT APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SO CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT, AND PASS
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. BRISK WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO 17Z/WED AT
KALB/KGFL/KPSF/KPOU. MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH,
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING
FROM OFF LAKE ONTARIO. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING.
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FORM AND IMPACT KGFL SOUTH
TO KALB/KPSF BETWEEN 17Z-20Z/WED. WE USED A VCSH GROUP FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWERS FOR THESE SITES, AND PROB30 GROUPS
17Z-19Z AT KGFL, AND 18-20Z AT KALB/KPSF. WE ARE LESS CERTAIN
FOR THE SHOWERS TO HOLD TOGETHER OVER THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FURTHER SOUTH, AS WE PLACED A VCSH GROUP FOR KPOU TOWARDS 20Z.
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE 25-35 KT
RANGE.
TONIGHT, THE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 5 KTS OR LESS EARLY ON. THEY WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS BY 12Z. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS HEAD OF THE FRONT, AND
VEER TO THE WEST AT 14-20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25-35 KT
RANGE IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT
TO THE SFC. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS WILL LIKELY BE
AT KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FIRE WEATHER
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT BEFORE
DROPPING TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL, WITH A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 25 MPH BY
LATE IN THE DAY.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS
FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED AND WON'T PRODUCE MUCH
RAIN SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY,
SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS, BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT.
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL GENERALLY HOLD STEADY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS
ON OUR WEBSITE.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JLV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/JLV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/JLV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JLV
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