794
FXUS61 KALY 191854
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
254 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. INCREASED WIND GUSTS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO UP TO
2-3" FOR PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALSO, MONITORING THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY, AS
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. IF THESE
TRENDS CONTINUE, THEN A COLDER SOLUTION THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
WOULD BE ON THE TABLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) 2 CLIPPER SYSTEMS, ONE TOMORROW AND THE NEXT SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT, WILL BRING SNOW TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS,
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PLAIN RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AS OF 1:55 PM EDT...CURRENT GOES 16 WV IMAGERY
SHOWS OUR REGION IN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH, WITH CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE EVENING, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY MINIMAL, SO NO IMPACT EXPECTED FOR MOST
AREAS. WHILE THERE ARE SOME BREAKS OF SUN TO THE WEST, WE
LOWERED EXPECTED DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE NBM DUE TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING UP UNTIL NOW. ANY LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END EARLY TONIGHT, WITH A RIDGE OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS THAT
WILL IMPACT OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
FRIDAY, AN AMPLIFYING UPPER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRACK TOWARDS OUR REGION, AS WILL THE COLLOCATED SFC LOW.
AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW, WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD
TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, WITH PRECIPITATION
EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEAST WITH AND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S
COLD FRONT AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF I-90. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADKS, BUT WILL CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY
RAIN BY TOMORROW EVENING. A GENERAL 1-3" IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADKS, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 4" FOR A FEW AREAS ABOVE 2000
FT IN ELEVATION. WHILE THESE AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ADKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. FOR THE
REST OF THE REGION, PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED. WITH SHOWALTER
VALUES NEAR 0, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM
UP TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHERN ADKS WHERE THERE WILL BE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARDS WHERE DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING
OFF THE CATSKILLS IS EXPECTED WITH A 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ.
WILL ALSO MENTION THAT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD, SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE TYPICAL
S/SE CHANNELED FLOW AREAS TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE SYSTEM'S
COLD FRONT DROPPING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS OVERHEAD RESULTING IN TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST THE DAY SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLE MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH, WE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW
TO SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE NBM FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90 ON
SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 30S IN THE ADKS TO UPPER
50S NEAR I-84.
SATURDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK TOWARDS OUR REGION FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA, WITH AN ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL HELP TO LIFT THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THAT STALLED TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HOW FAR NORTH THE
WARM FRONT GETS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY. AS THIS STRENGTHENING SFC LOW HELPS TO LIFT THE WARM
FRONT NORTHWARDS SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WE'LL
LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
SUNDAY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS DRASTICALLY. WHILE THE GFS
SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER RELATIVE TO OTHER GUIDANCE, MOST OF
TODAY'S 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO SHOW A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA SLIGHTLY QUICKER THAN
EARLIER GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD HELP REINFORCE THE LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT, AND WOULD HELP SLOW THE WARM
FRONT'S NORTHWARD PROGRESSION. GIVEN THAT THIS NEXT SFC LOW
WILL TRACK ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT, GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THE THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
ITSELF. THE CURRENT FORECAST WOULD STILL RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT
NORTHERN AREAS COULD SEE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SHOULD THIS COLDER TREND CONTINUE, THEN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD
LIKELY END UP HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST ACROSS THE ADKS
AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN GREENS. WILL ALSO MENTION THAT MOISTURE
LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM, AS PWATS INCREASE
TO AROUND 1" WHICH IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER
THE LATEST NAEFS. THE LOCATION OF THE SFC FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES SUNDAY: AREAS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WHILE AREAS NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY BE STUCK IN THE 30S WITH MORE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP AROUND.
REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
THE SYSTEM MONDAY. WE COLLABORATED WITH WPC TO HAVE MONDAY'S
WIND GUSTS BUMPED UP, BUT BELIEVE THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
MAX GUSTS OF 20-25 KT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FURTHER INCREASED
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES. ONCE THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS,
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY END UP WARMER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE BEEN HERE. FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION, BUT ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE CONTINUED NW FLOW
ALOFT COULD BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/FRI...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/FRI. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND WARM FRONT PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, A FEW LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS/CIGS TO KGFL,
KALB AND KPSF BETWEEN 00-06Z/FRI WHERE A PROB30 GROUP WAS USED.
ONLY VCSH WAS INCLUDED AT KPOU AS ACTIVITY THERE MAY BE MORE
ISOLATED. THEREAFTER, PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD RESULT IN THE
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THROUGH
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP, MAINLY AT KPOU,
SHOULD SKIES FULLY CLEAR AND LIGHT RAIN OCCUR THIS EVENING. A
GRADUAL INCREASE AND LOWERING OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED AFTER
12Z/FRI AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN, WILL NEAR KGFL/KALB
TOWARD 18Z/FRI WHERE MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP.
PRECIPITATION WILL START AFTER 18Z/FRI AT KPSF/KPOU.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WIND WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING AT AROUND 10 KT WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS AT KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...33
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page