692
FXUS61 KALY 101045
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN MODERATE TO
LOCALLY MAJOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS.
2) THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SYSTEM IN
SOUTHERN CANADA TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER HIGH PRESSURE GIVES US A PLEASANT SUMMER WEEKEND
FEATURING LOWER HUMIDITY, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, AND SEASONABLE
MID-JULY TEMPERATURES, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN PERIOD
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS COMES AS AN EXPANSIVE AND VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WITH 500HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL PER THE ENS AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A
HEAT DOME THEREFORE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN U.S AND ROCKIES WITH
THE MASSIVE RIDGE ADVECTING THE HEAT NORTH AND EASTWARD AROUND
ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. 850HPA ISOTHERMS RANGE 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE ENS AND SLIDE INTO THE NORTHEAST
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER STARTING ON
MONDAY WITH THE PROBABILITIES FOR REACHING AT LEAST 90 DEGREES
IN VALLEY AREAS RISING TO 30 TO 60%. THE PROBABILITY FOR HIGHS
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 90F ARE HIGHEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EXCEEDING 70% FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
(OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN) ON TUESDAY AND RANGING 50 TO 80%
ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS EVEN A 40 TO 60% FOR HIGHS TO REACH OR
EXCEED 95F IN VALLEY AREAS BOTH DAYS. CONSIDERING THE HEAT IS
ADVECTING WITHIN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW, HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY NOT
BE TOO OPPRESSIVE, POTENTIALLY LIMITING OUR HEAT INDEX VALUES
OR "FEEL- LIKE" TEMPERATURES.
EVEN STILL, THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC HEATRISK SHOWS WIDESPREAD
MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) WITH SOME POCKETS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF
4) RISK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS EVEN A 30 TO 70% CHANCE
FOR MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BOTH DAYS (OUTSIDE
THE HIGH TERRAIN). AVOID STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER (EVEN IF YOU ARE NOT THIRSTY) AND CONSIDER
RESCHEDULING ANY AFTERNOON OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO COOLER PARTS OF
THE DAY. HEAT SENSITIVE POPULATIONS SHOULD HAVE ACCESS TO
ADEQUATE COOLING. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH CAN FUTURE EXASPERATE HEAT-
RELATED IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE DURATION OF THE UPCOMING HEAT LOOKS RATHER SHORT-LIVED AS THERE
IS DECENT CONSENSUS FOR A POTENT TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO
TRACK SOUTH/EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WOULD HELP SHIFT THE HEAT OUT OF OUR AREA BUT ALSO
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE SPC DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
(EML) TO TRACK AROUND THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THIS IS QUITE COMMON FOR THESE TYPES OF SYNOPTIC
SET- UPS AND WOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN THE TROUGH IN CANADA PUSHES
INTO NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SPC'S LATEST DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK NOW INCLUDES A 15% CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL
SITES TODAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY TRACKS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS TRACKING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DOWN THE HUDSON
VALLEY REACHING GFL AND ALB THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SHOWER DEGRADING FLYING CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE
PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR POU LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS (20 UTC TO 03 UTC) BUT GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE AND
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO REMAIN SOUTH/EAST, WE CONTINUED
TO HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING ANY PROB30/TEMPOS.
NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 5 TO 10KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 15KTS AS OUR BOUNDARY TRACKS THROUGH THE TERMINALS. WINDS
TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31/05
AVIATION...31
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