235
FXUS61 KALY 260539
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS LOWERED THIS AFTERNOON DUE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND THE SFC WARM FRONT STRUGGLING TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE ADKS, MOHAWK VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN VT. STILL
MONITORING SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL THIS EVENING, AND HAVE
INCREASED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SW ADKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME SQUALLS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL AREAS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.
2) A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE AND A RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AGAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
3) MONITORING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 2:05 PM EST...CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 992 MB LOW
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY, WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
LOCATED BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
IS HUNG UP ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH THE MID HUDSON VALLEY SEEING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WHILE THE SOUTHERN ADKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS REMAIN IN THE MID 20S. SNOW FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING HAS COME TO AN END, BUT ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ARE JUST STARTING TO GET INTO THE WESTERN ADKS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTH.
THIS EVENING, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT FROM HI-RES GUIDANCE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SNOW SQUALLS DEVELOPING
AS WELL. TIMING LOOKS TO BE 4-7 PM FOR THE WESTERN ADKS, 7-10 PM
FOR THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, AND CAPITAL
DISTRICT, AND 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTER SUNSET,
THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, BUT WITH
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FGEN ALONG THE COLD FRONT, SOME
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, AND MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES, STILL EXPECTING A FAIRLY LINEAR CHARACTER TO THE BAND OF
SNOW SQUALLS. THIS LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ONCE IT GETS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AS THE SNOW SQUALLS
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION, BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND A
QUICK COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW COULD LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -12 T0 -15C,
COLDEST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 10S TO 20S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
COLD AIR MOVING OVER LAKE ONTARIO, WHICH REMAINS RELATIVELY ICE-
FREE, WILL ALLOW FOR BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 800 MB AND 25-30 KT 850 MB WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INLAND EXTENT INTO THE SW ADKS OVERNIGHT. AS LOW-
LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS MORE TO THE W/NW, THE BAND WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE THRUWAY AROUND THE TIME OF
THE AM COMMUTE. SHORT RESIDENCE TIMES OF THE BAND WILL KEEP
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY TO 1-3." THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN ADKS THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY
DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT ON TOP OF WHAT ALREADY FELL
THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE SUB- ADVISORY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS, DID
NOT ADD SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY, BUT WILL STILL MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS THERE TOMORROW AM.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BENNINGTON COUNTY ALSO CONTINUES
UNTIL 7 AM TOMORROW AS THE COMBINATION OF LAKE MOISTURE
ENHANCEMENT WITH WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY BY
MID-MORNING TOMORROW. THE BAND SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN, CONTINUE TO
DROP SOUTH, AND RETRACT CLOSER TO THE LAKE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ALLOWS WINDS TO WEAKEN AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE 20S
(TERRAIN) TO 30S (VALLEYS) WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
10S TO 20S. ASIDE FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW, GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, A STRONG SFC LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO REACH THE 40S FOR MOST
OF THE REGION. THEN, THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. TODAYS 12Z GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM'S COLD INITIAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE, SO FORECAST HIGHS HAVE DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE COLD FRONT, BUT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LOOK QUITE
MINOR. WILL ALSO MENTION THAT THE WARM-UP LOOKS QUITE BRIEF, SO
THIS SHOULDN'T REALLY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SNOW MELT TO RESULT IN
ANY ICE JAM OR FLOODING ISSUES.
BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY, THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE OVER THE REGION, WITH THE
NAEFS ALREADY INDICATING 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD DEV
BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS MONDAY ONLY IN THE 10S TO
20S. OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT, GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WHERE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP WILL BE THE KEY TO THE
FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW ALOFT LOOKS RELATIVELY FAST
AND SOMEWHAT ZONAL, ALBEIT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES. ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES MONDAY MAY RESULT IN AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING SNOW TO THE REGION, ALTHOUGH SOME
SOURCES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE STRONG SFC HIGH WILL
SUPPRESS THIS SYSTEM COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE REGION. MANY
SOURCES OF GUIDANCE THAT KEEP THE FIRST SHORTWAVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION HAVE A FOLLOW-UP WAVE BEHIND THE FIRST ONE THAT COULD
BRING SNOW TO THE REGION. WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME, THE WPC PWSSI SHOWS A 30-50% CHANCE FOR MINOR
IMPACTS FROM WINTER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WHILE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS, THE LIKELIHOOD OF CEILINGS
DROPPING TO MVFR AT AREA TAF SITES LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 30
PERCENT EXCEPT AT KPOU/KPSF. OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS OF SHOWERS,
BROKEN CEILINGS RANGING FROM 3500-5000 KFT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...91
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page