721
FXUS61 KALY 181808
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
208 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TOR WATCH 352 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EASTERN NY AND
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TORNADO WATCH 352 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM FOR MOST OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EXCLUDING ULSTER, DUTCHESS
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES, AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA.
2) STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF, AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
SUNSET WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH EXPECTED WITHIN THE ADVISORY
AREA, AND 30-45 MPH OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY.
3) ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TORNADO WATCH 352 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM FOR MOST OF
EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OUTSIDE OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS
COUNTIES IN NY, AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN NW CT.
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TRACKING EAST FOR
AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90, AS WELL AS INTO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT. LATEST
17Z/ALY SOUNDING INDICATES ~1000 J/KG SB CAPE, ALONG WITH 0-1 KM
SRH ~ 396 M2/S2, INDICATING A LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SOME POTENTIAL ROTATION WITHIN ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAT
DEVELOP. SRH/INSTABILITY DECREASES TO THE WEST OF I-87.
WE EXPECT REMAINING CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS
NEAR/NORTH OF I-90, AND NEAR/EAST OF I-87 FOR THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS FARTHER
SOUTH FROM THE SE CATSKILLS INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED LINE SHOWERS/STORMS, WINDS WILL SHIFT
INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AND AFTER A BRIEF LULL, WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN, WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH EXPECTED BY LATE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90 WHERE SOME GUSTS MAY REACH
50 MPH. WINDS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OF REGION MAY TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-90
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN SUNDAY, WHEN COVERAGE MAY BE EVEN
SLIGHTLY GREATER.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER, GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SOME GUSTS
REACHING UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS TO THE TAF SITES THROUGH 19Z-20Z/THU,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 10-20 KT AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTS REACHING 30-40 KT WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST, WITH ADDITIONAL GUSTS OF 25-35 KT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET,
THEN DECREASING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS OF
30-35 KT BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-048>054-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...27/24
AVIATION...24
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