168
FXUS61 KALY 152304
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
704 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON AND BUMPED UP
WIND GUSTS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBS. LOWERED TEMPS
TONIGHT AND ADDED IN PATCHY FOG. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL, BUT WE INCREASED WIND GUSTS WITH A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW.
2) A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH WILL BRING
WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 2:40 PM EDT...OUR AREA IS SANDWICHED
BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE W/SW, WHICH IS LEADING TO BREEZY WEST WINDS ADVECTING A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE QUITE COMFORTABLE WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S TO 70S. AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC EXPANDS
OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT, WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES CLEAR. WITH
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, WE LOWERED TEMPS INTO
THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS, A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE NBM.
GIVEN THAT MOST AREAS SAW A SOAKING RAINFALL YESTERDAY, HAVE
ALSO ADDED PATCHY RADIATION FOG TONIGHT FOR THE TYPICAL VALLEY
AREAS.
TOMORROW, THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST SO WINDS TURN MORE TO
THE W/SW, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 70S, WHICH
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID JUNE. FORTUNATELY, TOMORROW REMAINS DRY
WITH LOW HUMIDITY ONCE AGAIN. MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AROUND
TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS WARMER THAN TONIGHT, MAINLY IN
THE 40S TO 50S.
WEDNESDAY, A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN MODEST
INCREASES IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION, THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER. CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE
LOW, HOWEVER, AS MORNING CLOUDS LOOK TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, AND WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE SUBSIDENCE AND MID-LEVEL DRYING
BEHIND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD WORK TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF OUR AREA IN A GENERAL
THUNDER OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MAIN THREAT FOCUS AREA FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE THURSDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A POTENT,
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TO CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT
SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. AT THE
SFC, AN UNUSUALLY STRONG SFC LOW (SUB 990 MB, WHICH IS NEARLY -4
SIGMA PER THE LATEST NAEFS!) WILL TRACK IN TANDEM WITH THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING, PUTTING OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM'S COLD
FRONT TRACK THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
SFC LOW, WE ARE EXPECTING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY
WINDS (UP 30-40 KT) FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS AND WEST SLOPES OF THE
TACONICS/SOUTHERN GREENS. WHILE WINDS CURRENTLY LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA (45+ MPH), A FEW DOWNED TREES/LIMBS
COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF I-90 AND IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN
CT. HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. WHILE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, SOME HEALTH IMPACTS COULD STILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE MOST SENSITIVE POPULATIONS.
CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
THURSDAY, AND WILL BE LARGELY TIED TO THE TIMING OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF THESE FEATURES TRACK THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY (RGEM, ECMWF, AIGFS SOLUTION) AND THERE ARE ENOUGH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FOR INSTABILITY TO BUILD, THEN SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE A CONCERN WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND SHEAR
PROFILES (40-50 KT 850 MB LLJ AND UP TO 75 KT AT 500 MB). HOWEVER, A
FASTER SOLUTION MORE LIKE THE NAM/GFS WOULDN'T ALLOW FOR AS MUCH
INSTABILITY, AND THUS THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LOWER. SPC HAS
PLACED PORTIONS OF OUR I-84 CORRIDOR IN THE EQUIVALENT OF A D4
SLIGHT RISK, BUT NOTE THAT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN THE LARGE
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. WILL ALSO MENTION THAT
ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS SURGING TO
AROUND 1.5" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF AROUND 10 KFT, ALTHOUGH WITH
FAST STORM MOTIONS WE AREN'T EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF HYDRO
ISSUES.
THE SFC LOW TRACKS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
COLD FRONT TRACKING OFF TO OUR EAST AS WELL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM,
MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL REMAIN UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WITH A COLD POOL
ALOFT, SO DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BE ENHANCED
PERIODICALLY WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW
ALOFT. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/WED...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION IS FOR POSSIBLE FOG, MAINLY AT KGFL/KPSF, WHICH COULD
REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR OR LOWER FOR A TIME BETWEEN 07-11Z/TUE.
OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO JUST SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS, THEN A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND HIGH
CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND ON TUESDAY. WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT, THEN WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 36 KTS. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...33
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