053
FXUS61 KALY 301740
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS AND INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND. THE WPC MARGINAL RISK ERO HAS BEEN REMOVED COMPLETELY FROM
OUR AREA TODAY.
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. SEVERE CHANCES SEEM
TO BE INCREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWER WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
2) SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE MID WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 1:40 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH A WARM FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH
AND WEST OF OUR REGION. CURRENT GOES 16 WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA AND ANOTHER UPPER
SHORTWAVE BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS LEADING TO SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN AREAS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FURTHER
SOUTH WHERE LOW- LEVEL POSITIVE THETA E ADVECTION WILL ALSO LEAD
TO SOME ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. WHILE DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG, LACK OF INSTABILITY (<500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE PER THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS), MID-LEVEL CAPPING, AND
MEAGER MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALL WORK TO LIMIT THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER. A FEW NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE, THOUGH, MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN FEW COUNTIES. WE
COLLABORATED WITH WPC TO HAVE THE MARGINAL RISK ERO REMOVED
ENTIRELY FROM OUR REGION TODAY GIVEN FAST STORM MOTIONS AND LACK
OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SORT OF FLOODING THREAT.
TONIGHT, AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS BY TO THE NORTH IT WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARDS THROUGH THE REGION, WITH A RIDGE OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A DRYING OUT TREND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND FOR
ANYWHERE THAT SEES RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. TOMORROW, THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY, BUT RETREATS
TO THE NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT, BUT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE DAY WILL START
OFF DRY AREA- WIDE, BUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WEST/SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WITH/AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY THUNDER THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY, WITH MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN W/NW FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE TRACKING OVER THE NORTHEAST. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL ULTIMATELY COME DOWN TO TIMING OF THESE
DISTURBANCES IN RELATION TO DAYTIME HEATING AND THE LOCATION OF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE LOCATED NEARBY, WHICH BOTH
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS JUNCTURE. GENERALLY NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH TEMPS COULD REACH THE MID 80S FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ABLE
TO LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR AREAS OF SHOWERS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARDS AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH
REMNANT/DECAYING MCS ACTIVITY TRACKS OVER THE REGION. SHOWALTER
VALUES BECOME NEGATIVE MONDAY NIGHT, SO SOME THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH
THIS INSTABILITY REMAINING ELEVATED. WPC HAS KEPT MOST OF OUR
REGION IN THE MARGINAL RISK ERO, AND SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES
CAN'T BE RULED OUT IF WE SEE TRAINING OF STORMS, BUT OVERALL
HYDRO THREAT STILL APPEARS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY...SEEING INCREASING CONSENSUS FOR REMNANT SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND CLOUDS TRACKING OFF TO OUR EAST AT SOME POINT TUESDAY
MORNING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS LOOKING POTENTIALLY ACTIVE, BUT A
FEW POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY REMAIN. FIRST, THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER WITH
BGM. HOW FAR IT ADVANCES INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
DETERMINE WHICH AREAS MAY SEE AFTERNOON STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
AT THIS POINT, MOST LIKELY AREAS SEEM TO BE EASTERN CATSKILLS
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY, AS WELL AS POSSIBLY THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WARM FRONT, UP TO 2000-3000 J/KG
OF SBCAPE IS EXPECTED TO OVERLAP WITH 35-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR. SO THE PARAMETER SPACE LOOKS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW FAR INTO OUR
CWA THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ABLE TO ADVANCE. OTHER
QUESTION IS IF MORNING CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER LONG
ENOUGH LIMIT THE RECOVERY AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND IN
THE AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD ALSO REDUCE THE SEVERE THREAT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS AS
WELL AS PWATS RISE TO 1.6-1.9". TIMING FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS
WOULD LIKELY BE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE, THE WARM FRONT, AND ANY REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION ACTING AS FOCI
FOR CI. THE OVERNIGHT SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK JUST HAS A
MARGINAL RISK SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT RIGHT NOW,
BUT IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WOULD LIKELY BE NEEDED.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES. SOME
SOURCES OF GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY TRACKING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY, TODAY'S 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINLY KEEP
THE INSTABILITY SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION, WHICH IS WHERE SPC HAS
THE EQUIVALENT DAY 4 SLIGHT RISK LIMITED TO. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS
OUT, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD GENERALLY BE LOW ACROSS OUR
CWA. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT LOOKS EVEN
MORE VOLATILE COMPARED TO THAT ON TUESDAY, SO IF THE FRONT ENDS UP
LOCATED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN CURRENTLY MODELED THEN THIS
COULD PUT OUR CATSKILLS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY UNDER THE GUN FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS.
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES ON THURSDAY. SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN
CT, WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR THANKS TO FAST W/NW FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AT THIS LEAD TIME, WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN FOR ANY OF OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THAT GET INTO THIS MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE UPPER DISTURBANCE TRACKING TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST SHOULD PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH OF OUR
REGION AS A COLD FRONT. IN ITS WAKE, COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO PUT AN END
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES, ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND IF UPPER TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
TODAY AND THIS EVENING, WITH BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW -SHRA TO THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z, SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PROB30. THERE IS THEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AND SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR. BEST CHANCES FOR IFR ARE AT
KGFL/KPSF, WITH MVFR FAVORED AT KALB WHERE STRATUS CLOUDS COULD
PREVAIL. STRATUS CLOUDS AT VFR LEVELS EXPECTED AT KPOU. OVERALL,
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND
12Z-13Z, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-8 KT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...07
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