232
FXUS61 KALY 161050
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMOKE LOOKS TO BE QUITE WIDESPREAD AND THICK TODAY, SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES, SO NBM VALUES WERE REDUCED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SMOKE AND HAZE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TODAY.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SMOKE AND THICK, HAZY SKIES WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. BOTH THE VERTICALLY-INTEGRATED AND NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE
FORECASTS FROM THE HRRR SHOW HIGH CONCENTRATIONS THROUGH TODAY.
MAINLY EFFECTS FROM THE SMOKE WILL BE BOTH POOR AIR QUALITY AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY. ALSO TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE TODAY. HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AS A RESULT
OF THE SMOKE/HAZE. AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING,
SMOKE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND BECOME SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY,
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM IS POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRI. ANY STORMS TODAY SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED, ESPECIALLY WITH THE WIDESPREAD
SMOKE/HAZE AROUND.
THE NEXT LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME
T-STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE, WILL BE SAT INTO EARLY SUN AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CYCLONE (MSLP ANOMALIES OF -2 TO -3 STDEV)
AND A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA. TIMING LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ARRIVING
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. PWAT ANOMALIES FORECAST TO
RISE TO +1 TO +2 STDEV, SO SOME LOCAL DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTION. OVERALL THE SHOWERS
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
FOR OVER A WEEK. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MUDDLED, AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION. CLOUDS
AND/OR SMOKE/HAZY COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY DEPENDING
COVERAGE/THICKNESS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON SUN, AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA.
WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE TUE-WED
TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOP, SOME
STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR, WITH FAIRLY STRONG KINEMATICS IN
PLACE FOR MID-LATE JULY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THIS MORNING. AFTER AROUND 13Z OR 14Z, SURFACE-BASED SMOKE FROM
UPSTREAM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL START TO REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR
OR EVEN OCCASIONAL IFR LEVELS, WITH LOWEST VSBY EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AT KALB, KPOU AND KPSF. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AT KGFL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SECONDARY COLD FRONT, WHICH COULD ALSO REDUCE VSBY
TO LOW MVFR OR IFR WHEN COMBINED WITH THE EXISTING SMOKE/HAZE.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN THIS EVENING AS SMOKE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME WEST-
NORTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT DEVELOPING.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07
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