096  
FXUS61 KALY 221426  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
926 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY, MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY  
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES NOT AS FRIGID FOR THIS  
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES  
GENERALLY HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO  
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH MUCH MILDER  
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE PRECIPITATION PERHAPS CHANGING BACK TO SNOW  
BEFORE ENDING ON THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
THE CENTER OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH (1042 MB) EXTENDS FROM EASTERN  
VA/NC NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NY. HAVE CLEAR SKIES WITH  
THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN  
HERKIMER COUNTY. WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING. FORECAST  
ON TRACK AND ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED.  
 
AFTER OUR COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UP TODAY WITH  
SUNSHINE AND AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS STARTING TO RISE. ALTHOUGH  
IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, IT WILL STILL BE  
QUITE COLD, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS (PERHAPS A FEW LOW  
20S FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS). WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS  
SLIDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE  
MAINLY SUNNY AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA STARTS TO DEPART, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY  
FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, AS  
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE. TEMPS MAY INITIALLY FALL A  
FEW DEGREES THIS EVENING, BUT WILL THEN START TO LEVEL OFF AND  
MAY EVEN START TO RISE FOR LATER TONIGHT THANKS TO THE  
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MORE CLOUDS STARTING TO ARRIVE.  
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY ARRIVE INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS  
DAYBREAK, OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO  
ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BROAD SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AIR  
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE  
INCREASING TO 50+ KNOTS BY LATE IN THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR LIGHT  
PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.  
DURING THE MORNING HOURS, PRECIP MAY BE LIMITED TO FAR  
NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND WILL BE PRIMARILY BE SNOW OR SNOW/SLEET,  
WHERE A FEW INCHES WILL ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND  
CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER, BY AFTERNOON, PRECIP WILL BE  
SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. P-TYPE WILL BE TRANSITING  
TO MAINLY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN BY LATER IN THE DAY, DEPENDING  
ON SURFACE TEMPS (ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET MAY LINGER ACROSS THE  
ADIRONDACKS AS WELL). VALLEY AREAS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CHANGING  
TO RAIN, AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE. HOWEVER,  
SOME NORTHERN AND SHELTERED HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO  
RISE ABOVE FREEZING, AS THE LOW- LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED,  
ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE. SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY  
EVEN OCCUR FOR AREAS WHERE THE SURFACE TEMP IS JUST ABOVE  
FREEZING, AS VERY COLD GROUND TEMPS COULD STILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP  
TO FREEZE ON CONTACT AS WELL.  
 
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE  
30S, SO MOST AREAS SHOULD BE SEEING JUST A STEADY COLD RAIN FOR  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN  
MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS). TEMPS MAY EVEN SPIKE NEAR  
40 ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF  
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  
 
THE STORM'S COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY  
MORNING, ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW  
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A  
PERIOD OF STEADY PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAY, MAINLY THE  
MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. AS COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE  
SURFACE AND ALOFT, SURGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST, A  
CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN AND HIGH TERRAIN  
AREAS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS  
STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL BE LEFT TO OCCUR BEFORE TEMPS  
COOL ENOUGH, BUT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FOR HIGH  
TERRAIN AREAS BY PRECIP ENDS. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW  
40S WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THEY DAY BEFORE TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID  
20S TO MID 30S FOR LATE IN THE DAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LOW WITH SUB-490 DAM HEIGHTS AT 500 MB WILL  
BE LOCATED OVER HUDSON BAY TO START THE PERIOD. IT WILL DRIFT  
SOUTHWARD TOWARD INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY THE WEEKEND. DISTURBANCES  
WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW DURING THE PERIOD, PROVIDING PERIODIC  
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL. GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION FOR THESE DISTURBANCES  
IS CONTINENTAL POLAR FROM CANADA, EXPECT ANY SNOWFALL TO REMAIN  
LIGHT AND PREFERENTIALLY LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY  
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT WILL  
OCCUR WHEN FLOW TRAJECTORIES SUFFICIENTLY ALIGN.  
 
AFTER A MAINLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK FRONTAL  
WAVE, THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO GENERATE HIGH TERRAIN/LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE, FRIDAY NIGHT  
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE LONG  
TERM AS H850 TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE -15 TO -20C RANGE, 1-2SD BELOW  
NORMAL. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OUTSIDE OF  
THE HIGH TERRAIN/LAKE EFFECT ZONES WILL BE TOWARD THE END OF THE  
PERIOD (SUNDAY/MONDAY) AS STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SHARPER  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS INDICATED BY MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS STILL  
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD,  
HOWEVER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE TAF  
PERIOD, RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL  
ALSO DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD DURING THE  
DAY TODAY AS WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR  
ASIDE FROM SOME INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER LATE TONIGHT BUT REMAIN  
AROUND 10 KFT.  
 
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY, 5 TO 10 KT  
AT KALB/KPSF EARLY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE  
OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KT AT KALB LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. LLWS  
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z/WED AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.  
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...SHSN...RA...SN.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.  
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.  
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO  
ALLOW FOR RIVER AND LAKE ICE TO THICKEN AND STRENGTHEN.  
 
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  
INITIALLY, PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP BEFORE  
CHANGING TO RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
THE PRECIP MAY ALSO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING ON  
THURSDAY.  
 
TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN,  
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF LIQUID  
EQUIVALENT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH TERRAIN AREAS  
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TO SEE AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES. IN  
ADDITION, MILDER TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ARE EXPECTED,  
ALTHOUGH THESE TEMPERATURES MAY BE RATHER BRIEF (GENERALLY ONLY  
18-24 HOURS AT MOST).  
 
FOR MOST OF THE AREA, MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE  
ABSORBED BY THE SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND, HOWEVER, SOME RIVER  
RISES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE  
AREA. SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY FOR  
THE HOUSATONIC AND HOOSIC BASINS. SOME ISOLATED ICE JAM ISSUES  
ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF TOTAL RUNOFF  
SHOULD PREVENT THIS FROM BEING A MAJOR CONCERN.  
 
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND COLDER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE  
WEEKEND AND ANY PRECIP DURING THIS TIME WOULD BE SCATTERED SNOW  
SHOWERS. THIS WILL ALLOW ANY RIVERS TO SLOWLY RECEDE.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED  
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE  
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR  
WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS  
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS  
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS  
LONG TERM...THOMPSON  
AVIATION...THOMPSON  
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NY Page
The Nexlab VT Page
The Nexlab MA Page
The Nexlab CT Page Main Text Page