227
FXUS61 KALY 091927
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
327 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
STEADY RAINFALL TO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT, WITH SOME MINOR FLOODING
OF RIVERS, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS STILL POSSIBLE. THE RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS OF SUN BY LATE
IN THE DAY. SUNNY AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOTHER'S DAY
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED DURING NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR FLOODING OF RIVERS AND CREEKS, AS WELL AS FLOODING
OF URBAN, LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY.
AS OF 327 PM EDT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. AT THE SURFACE,
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND IT WILL
BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR TONIGHT. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.00 INCH FROM ABOUT
THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTH AND EAST. WITH STRONG FORCING IN
PLACE, WIDESPREAD PRECIP HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY AND A LARGE BAND OF STEADY RAINFALL IS LIFTING
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR
STARTING TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTH, SOME BREAKS IN THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS STARTING TO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND TACONICS, BUT STEADY MODERATE RAINFALL IS STILL
OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
MRMS SHOWS HOURLY RAINFALL RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS FOR
MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH SOME EMBEDDED RATES OF A QUARTER TO THIRD
OF AN INCH HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH THE CONTINUOUS RAINFALL SINCE THE MORNING HOURS,
THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNAL FOR RISES WITHIN SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS ACCORDING TO FLASH CREST UNIT STREAMFLOW, SO TWO FLOOD
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ULSTER COUNTY AND THE CAPITAL
REGION. BASED OFF THE LATEST CAMS, THE STEADY RAINFALL SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA,
WITH SIMILAR RAINFALL RATES. ADDITIONAL PONDING OF WATER IS
EXPECTED IN LOW LYING, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND SOME
RIVERS MAY START REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE ESOPUS CREEK IN THE CATSKILLS AND THE LOWER REACHES OF THE
HOUSATONIC RIVER IN NW CT.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND, THE BEST MOISTURE
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARDS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. HOWEVER, OUR AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE STORM'S
DEFORMATION, AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND WE WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE
CYCLONE. AS A RESULT, ADDITIONAL STEADY LIGHT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
MODERATE BURSTS POSSIBLE. WHILE THE RAINFALL RATES AREN'T
EXTREME, THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RUNOFF, WHICH
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ALLOWING SOME RIVERS TO REACH CLOSER TO FLOOD
STAGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL, TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN STUCK IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE STEADY RAINFALL WILL BE TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY MORNING
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE STORM SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS OFF TO THE
EAST. WHILE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY, IT
SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDDAY OR SO. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH MOST AREAS
BECOMING CLEAR BY THE EVENING HOURS. WITH SOME BREAKS EXPECTED,
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH VALLEY AREAS
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH CLEARING
SKIES, TEMPS WILL BE COOLER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR PLEASANT WEATHER ON MOTHER'S DAY
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE LOW AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S WILL MAKE FOR A
COMFORTABLE DAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S
IN MOST AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND COMFORTABLE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION:
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTING OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL
BECOME MILDER AS THE AREA GETS INTO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AREA. BOTH DAYS SHOULD
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEY AREAS. WHILE MONDAY
WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AND COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS DEWPOINTS, THE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY. WHILE IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY SUNNY ON MONDAY, SOME MORE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.
THE CHANCE FOR SOME DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK AS SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH
THE AREA. ANY PRECIP FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, SO WON'T INCLUDE
ANY THUNDER JUST YET, BUT SOME SPOTTY BRIEF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY FOR THE LATE WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
WARM EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S (AND POSSIBLY THE
LOW 80S) AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT MOST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS IS SET TO
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE 18Z CYCLE COURTESY OF BOTH MODERATE
RAINFALL RATES CAUSING REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY AND LOW STRATUS
CAUSING LOWERED CEILING HEIGHTS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS SHOULD BE
MADE LATE TONIGHT, THOUGH THE TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WANING OF RAIN. FOR NOW, MAINTAINED
PRIMARILY MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH MATCHING VISIBILITY AS
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THESE CONDITIONS DOMINATING
THIS PERIOD AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
HYDROLOGY
THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND ALL OF WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH 7 AM SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES.
SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
STEADY RAINFALL INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE GROUND IS SOAKED AND
RATHER SATURATED AFTER THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED EARLIER
THIS WEEK. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. WPC HAS PLACED MOST OF OUR REGION INTO A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. ADDITIONAL
RIVER AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING APPEARS LIKELY DUE TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF STEADY MODERATE RAINFALL, WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVIER BURSTS. THE LATEST NERFC FORECASTS SHOWS POTENTIAL
MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE HOOSIC RIVER, HOUSATONIC RIVER AND
ESOPUS CREEK. ALSO SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE STILL
RIVER NEAR BROOKFIELD. IN ADDITION, PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED
IN POOR DRAINAGE, URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS.
KEEP UPDATED WITH THE LATEST RIVER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS
FROM OUR NATIONAL WATER PREDICTION SERVICE (NWPS) WEBPAGE AT
WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/ALY.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-
058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GANT
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page