506
FXUS61 KALY 171703
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN FALL TO NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW, LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA AND
THE DELMARVA REGION, WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD
TODAY, THEN OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO THE REGION. THIS LOW IS
BRINGING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BRING
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY TO THE AREA TODAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT WILL BEGIN
TO DRIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY. WHILE THIS LOW
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT, ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN AREAS
TODAY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME THE DRY LOW-LEVELS IN ORDER FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH
THE GROUND. EVEN WHERE IT DOES RAIN, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT AND NOT PUT A DENT INTO THE ONGOING RAINFALL
DEFICIT. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY. THE EXTRA
CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MID-60S TO UPPER 70S WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE MORE BREAKS OF SUN OR
FILTERED SUN IS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA,
MORE SUN IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND WILL RESULT IN A WARMER
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID-70S TO LOWER 80S. WHERE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR TONIGHT, PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN
SOME VALLEY AREAS.
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS
FRONT BUT MAY HAVE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A
MOSTLY DRY FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE AIR MASS TO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL BE COMMON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL
BE RATHER CHILLY AT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID-30S TO LOWER 40S. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS ONE OR BOTH OF THESE NIGHTS. FROST ADVISORIES AND/OR
FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS AS THE
GROWING SEASON CONTINUES.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE
HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST BRINGING A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO THE
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK REACHING THE MID-70S TO LOWER 80S
BY NEXT TUESDAY. IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE MAINLY DRY WEATHER MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY SHOULD SOME
UPPER SHORTWAVES PASS BY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL WITH A COASTAL STORM
TO OUR SOUTH. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY AT KPOU WHERE A VCSH MENTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTS FROM THESE SHOWERS IS LOW. LOW
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF
KPOU/KPSF THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, RESULTING IN MVFR
CONDITIONS. FOG WITH MVFR/IFR MAY DEVELOP AS WELL LATER TONIGHT
AT KGFL/KPSF, ESPECIALLY AT KGFL WHERE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AREAWIDE BY 12-13Z
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FIRE WEATHER
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT BREEZE
BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH. RH VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH VALUES REACHING 35 TO 45 PERCENT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOWER RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY (25 TO 35
PERCENT) THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE ORDER OF 5-10 MPH.
ADDITIONALLY, LITTLE TO NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THEREFORE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
RAINFALL DEFICITS.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MAIN/RATHBUN
DISCUSSION...RATHBUN
AVIATION...SPECK
FIRE WEATHER...MAIN/RATHBUN
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