057
FXUS61 KALY 171053
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
653 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WITH RAINFALL WINDING DOWN, FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. ADDITIONAL MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO THE MORNING AREAS FOR
MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WON'T BE QUITE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS,
SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP ADVISORY IN PLACE, ALTHOUGH WILL NOTE A
DECREASING TREND THROUGH THE MORNING WITH RESPECT TO WIND GUSTS.
STEADY SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
ENDED, SO HAVE ALLOWED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BE CANCELLED
FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS STILL
EXPECTED THERE THIS MORNING, BUT ACCUMULATION LOOKS MAINLY UNDER
AN INCH.
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION NOW EXPECTED WITH LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. TOTAL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE SUB-ADVISORY BUT
SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE STILL EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES
OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE TRENDING WEAKER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
GUSTS STILL EXCEEDING 40 MPH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS WILL
RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
2) TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN RAPIDLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT, WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING WET SURFACES AND SOME ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FROM LAKE EFFECT WILL RESULT SLIPPERY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS NOW PASSED THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VT AND
PARTS OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD AND WILL BE CROSSING THESE AREAS SHORTLY AND WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
WIDESPREAD STRONG GUSTY WINDS OCCURRED RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND
THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 2AM FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY ON EASTWARD. NYS MESONET AND ASOS OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED WIDESPREAD GUSTS REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
45 TO 55 MPH RANGE, WHICH RESULTED IN NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND
POWER LINES. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS THIS
MORNING. WHILE THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET IS NOW SHIFTING EAST
OF THE REGION, GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE.
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT, GOOD
MIXING TODAY WITHIN DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 25
TO 45 MPH RANGE ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL DOWNED TREES AND
POWER LINES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE. WINDS
SHOULD START TO DECREASE TOWARDS MIDDAY AND FOR THE AFTERNOON,
BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE
FOR LATE TODAY, ALTHOUGH ADVISORY-LEVEL GUSTS SHOULD BE DONE BY
MIDDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES DROPPED RAPIDLY. THERE WAS A
20 DEGREES DROP IN JUST ABOUT 30 MINUTES FOR MANY AREAS AND
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FELL INTO THE 30S. MANY AREAS, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION ON NORTH AND WEST, HAVE DROPPED BELOW
FREEZING. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
AND SLEET, BUT THERE IS ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT.
A COATING TO AN INCH CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT
STEADY PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE JUST AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE
DAYBREAK. STILL, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING, ANY LINGERING WET SURFACES WILL FREEZE OVER,
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN, WESTERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. IF
ROADS REMAIN UNTREATED, SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS MAY HELP TO DRY OUT SURFACES.
WITH THE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT, SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING FOR TODAY. INITIALLY, THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR TODAY BUT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE MOHAWK VALLEY FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT,
BUT A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE IN SOUTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY. A FEW SPOTS NEAR UTICA COULD BE CLOSE TO 4", BUT AMOUNTS
WILL DECREASE FURTHER EAST. WHILE AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN
GENERALLY SUB-ADVISORY, SOME LOCALLY SLICK CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FOR LATE TODAY INTO
THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE, IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY AND CHILLY WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY EVEN DRIFT AS FAR EAST AS
THE CAPITAL REGION, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
FOR THAT FAR EAST.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT HAS COMPLETED
ITS TRACK THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND,
LEAVING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. ALL THAT REMAINS OF
PRECIPITATION IS SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS THAT HAVE PRIMARILY BEEN IMPACTING GFL AND ALB ON AND
OFF OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW. TEMPO
GROUPS WERE ADDED TO THESE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO DRIFT
INTO THEIR TERMINAL BOUNDARIES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
CATEGORY THAT WILL BE SEEN WITH THESE SHOWERS AS PREVIOUS OBS
HAVE INDICATED A MIX OF VFR, MVFR, AND BRIEF IFR. BASED ON
LATEST REFLECTIVITY AND OBS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE MET BY VISIBILITY IF NOT BY BOTH VISIBILITY
AND CEILING HEIGHT SO INCLUDED THESE CONDITIONS WITHIN THESE
GROUPS.
ONCE SHOWERS CONCLUDE, IT SHOULD BE A LARGELY DRY REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY STRAY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE LARGELY BE VFR, THOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DID INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR
CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN AT KPSF THIS AFTERNOON FOR A BRIEF TIME. BUT
BY THIS EVENING, THESE SHOULD IMPROVE SUCH THAT VFR CONDITIONS
ARE REINFORCED EVERYWHERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
RANGE FROM ABOUT 15 TO 20KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
RANGING FROM 20 TO 35KT. BY THIS EVENING, WINDS BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY WANE AND LOSE THEIR GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041>043-
048>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...12
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