114
FXUS61 KALY 250644
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
244 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM WERE MADE WITH THIS
ITERATION OF THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES TREND MILDER THAN NORMAL TODAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
IT THEN STALLS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY GIVEN RATHER
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WARM SECTOR BUILDS INTO
MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY SHOWING
A 50 TO 90% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES,
HIGHEST IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE
TO EXCEED 70. WHILE MUCH OF THE DAY REMAINS CLOUDY AND MILD,
THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH SINKS SOUTHWARD AS A COLD
FRONT LATE THURS AFTERNOON INTO THURS NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA RESULTS IN HEIGHT FALLS COINCIDE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ADVECTING
AMPLE MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD AND NOTABLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, EXPECTING A FOCUSED AREA OF STEADY RAIN TO
TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THURS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY FRIDAY A.M. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREEPS INTO WESTERN
NY WITH 850-500 HPA LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO 5.5-6C/KM
NEAR/SOUTH OF I-90 BUT GIVEN OVERNIGHT TIMING, CONFIDENCE ON
THUNDER REMAINS LOW AND IS AGAIN LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH, SFC WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTH INDUCING STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION THURS NIGHT.
THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
FRONT AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE LINGERS AS 925 - 850HPA TEMPERATURES
DROP BELOW FREEZING BUT LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST
0.1" OF SNOW HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH VALUES
NOW RANGING 30 TO 40% IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS, SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY, NORTHERN TACONICS,
NORTHERN CATSKILLS/HELDERBERGS, AND PARTS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 1" OF SNOW
REMAIN UNDER 10% SO ANY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION THURS NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY A.M WILL LIKELY NOT BE IMPACTFUL. OTHERWISE, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL ALSO NOT RESULT IN FLOODING IMPACTS AS THERE IS
ONLY A 30 TO 40% CHANCE FOR AMOUNTS TO EXCEED 0.50" BETWEEN 2PM
THURS AND 2PM FRI. THEN, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES
TO TREND COLDER THAN NORMAL FRIDAY INTO ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT
KALB/KPSF/KGFL THROUGH AROUND 08Z OR 09Z. THEN, JUST SCT-BKN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 KT OR
LESS, BECOMING SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT. SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH AT KPOU/KGFL TO MENTION LLWS STARTING THIS
EVENING AS A 35 KT SOUTHWEST JET MOVES OVERHEAD. SURFACE WINDS WILL
AT KALB/KPSF WILL LIKELY NOT BE WEAK ENOUGH TO MENTION LLWS AT THIS
TIME.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...07
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