619
FXUS61 KALY 202349
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
749 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT (MAINLY WITHIN THE
HUDSON/MOHAWK VALLEYS), AND SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SW ADIRONDACKS FOR MON/TUE NIGHTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TAPER OFF THIS EVENING,
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
2) A COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK NEAR THE EAST COAST LATE THIS
WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHETHER WE WILL SEE IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW
TO SE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THEN LINGERING THROUGH TONIGHT. WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS DEVELOP, PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP, WITH MOST
LIKELY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON/MOHAWK VALLEYS
AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SETTLES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD DAYBREAK, A DEVELOPING LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST
BREEZE MAY ALLOW ANY FOG TO LIFT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM
EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING PERIODS OF
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR AREAS CLOSER TO I-84 DURING THIS TIME TIME PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AM, HOWEVER OVERALL CHANCES ARE
RATHER LOW (20-30%).
PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW
ADIRONDACKS, MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AM, AS A THICK VEIL
OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT COLDER TEMPS AND FROST FORMATION FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE AM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST, AND ANY IMPACTS (RAIN/BREEZY CONDITIONS) ACROSS
EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAKING
LEADS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCK PATTERN, WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION. AS IT EMERGES OVER
THE ATLANTIC, COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
RESULTING SFC LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE OFF THE EAST COAST. MOST
GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS OUR AREA DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN/BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THIS COASTAL LOW
DELAYED UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH
THESE BLOCKY FLOW PATTERNS, AND SO CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD REMAINS QUITE LOW. ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
LATE-WEEK SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS LOW STRATUS, LIGHT DRIZZLE, AND MIST/FOG
PERSIST BEHIND A LOW DEPARTING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. SUCH
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN BETWEEN 03-05Z. DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW LOW STRATUS TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND LIFT SUCH
THAT VFR CEILINGS RETURN DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER, AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PATCHES OF SUFFICIENT CLEARING COULD LEAD TO A
RE-INTRODUCTION OF IFR CONDITIONS AT GFL AND PSF DUE TO FOG
FORMATION. TEMPO GROUPS WERE ADDED TO THESE TAF GROUPS BETWEEN
08-12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. ALB COULD ALSO HAVE
SOME SHALLOW FOG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN IFR CONDITIONS
BEING MET HERE. THEREFORE, MVFR VISIBILITY WAS INCLUDED IN ITS
TEMPO FROM 07-10Z.
SUFFICIENT MIXING AT THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT SHOULD BURN OFF
ANY FOG RATHER QUICKLY TOMORROW MORNING SUCH THAT SWIFT
IMPROVEMENTS OCCUR. A BRIEF RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR
THROUGH MID-MORNING, PARTICULARLY AT ALB AND GFL, BUT BY LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE REALIZED
ONCE AGAIN. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL PREVAIL LARGELY OUT
OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT, UNDER 10 KT, BEFORE INCREASING AND
BECOMING BREEZY TOMORROW. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
8-12 KT WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE UP TO 20 KT PARTICULARLY AT POU.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24/35
AVIATION...12
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