689
FXUS61 KALY 221957
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2023
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GRADUALLY WITH SOME SHOWERS
MOVING INTO LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 90 ON SATURDAY.
THE SHOWERS MAY OVER SPREAD MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
CONDITIONS, AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW
OVER THE DELMARVA REGION MOVES IN.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
AS OF 357 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OF THE
GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. TS OPHELIA GRADUALLY MOVES
NORTH/NORTHWEST NEAR THE NC COAST TONIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH
AND WARM FRONT EXTENDED NORTHEAST OF THE TS WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.
MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN DACKS, LAKE
GEORGE REGION /KGFL/ AND IN THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN VT. SOME
MIST/FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
LOWS WERE ACCEPTED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE NBM/MAV. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
THE VALLEYS. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH THE I-84 CORRIDOR
BY DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
TOMORROW...THE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. A STRENGTHENING EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. PLENTIFUL DRY AIR MAY BE IN
PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR NORTHERN
NY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING SHORT RANGE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWS THE GREATEST PROBABILISTIC CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL WILL BE SQUASHED CLOSED TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY,
SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS, AND NW CT. WE PLACED HIGH CHC AND LIKELY
POPS THERE. FURTHER NORTH, ONLY SLIGHT AND VERY LOW CHANCE POPS
NEAR THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. IT MAY STAY DRY ALL DAY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. COOLER TEMPS SOUTH OF ALBANY IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60F. FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST, LOWER TO MID 60S
WITH A FEW UPPER 50S OVER THE MTNS.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED
DOWN THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL
FRONT/WARM FRONT DESPITE SOME UPTICK IN PWATS (CLOSER TO KPOU).
THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION IS IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST EXTREME
OF THE HSA. HOWEVER, 0.5-1.5" OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY NOT CAUSE
ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS UNLESS TRENDS SHIFT. WPC CONTINUES A MARGINAL
TO SLIGHT RISK IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHIC. THIS LOOKS
OVER DONE BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. HOWEVER, EXTREME
PROBABILITIES SEEM TO REIGN AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
THREAT IN THE HWO. FURTHER NORTH OF THE MID HUDSON RIVER VALLEY,
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S.
SUNDAY, THE SHOWERS COULD END EARLY, AS THE COASTAL LOW
(FORMERLY OPHELIA) CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR WASHINGTON DC, AND THE
MOISTURE AXIS SLIDES EAST WITH THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
IT WILL BE CLOUDY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CEASE
THE SHOWERS. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S. SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
FORECAST TO STAY IN COLLAB WITH THE NEIGHBORS, BUT TRENDS TO
LOWER POPS MAY CONTINUE WITH LATE FORECASTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE THEME DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS QUIESCENT AND
SEASONABLE. WE START OFF THE EXTENDED ON MONDAY MORNING WHERE WE
COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW THAT WILL BE
DISSOLVING/WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THAT SAID, AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, ANY SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
OVER OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. CLOUD COVERAGE COULD ALSO SHOW SOME
IMPROVEMENTS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A BROAD AND STRONG 1035-1040 MB
CANADIAN HIGH TO OUR NORTH SLOWLY BEGINS TO INFILTRATE INTO THE
REGION. TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING OF THE WORKWEEK LOOKS TO
REMAIN DRY AND TRANQUIL AS THIS LARGE CANADIAN 1020-1025 MB HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHICH WILL HELP TO DEFLECT
ANY STORM SYSTEMS/RAIN AWAY FROM OUR REGION.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, A BLOCKY PATTERN FEATURING AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG H500 TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO WESTERN CANADA
AND DOWNSTREAM ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H500 RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA
WILL BE ONE OF THE DRIVERS DURING THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
OF THESE FEATURES, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS
THE NWS ALY FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RUN
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SAT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT AND SOME
HIGH CIRRUS. A COASTAL STORM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY WITH THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS AS
WELL AS SOME DEVELOPING LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND KPOU, WHICH
COULD LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD GETS ON
SATURDAY. FOR NOW, WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT KPOU STARTING AT 15Z/SAT
AND LEAVE THE OTHER TAFS DRY.
WIND WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 4-8 KT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON THEN TREND LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. WIND WILL BE EAST
TO NORTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 KT ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...EVBUOMA
AVIATION...RATHBUN
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