142
FXUS61 KALY 241810
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
210 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES ONCE AGAIN FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW WHILE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATE
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE
OF A COLD POOL ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO
TOMORROW. WEAK INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
AS WELL BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF THIS LOOKS RATHER SPARSE. WEAK
SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE. ANY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LIGHT AS WELL SO NO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND
70S WHICH ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH RETURNS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING
OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WHETHER OR NOT
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK
TO BE BETWEEN 6.0 TO 6.5C/KM WITH AROUND 25-30 KT OF SHEAR WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT THESE CONDITIONS ARE
BORDERLINE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DEWPOINTS WILL
ALSO RISE INTO THE MID-60S TO LOWER 70S LATER IN THE WEEK AS
WELL. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRIER TO START WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS. ANY
LIGHT/BRIEF SHOWERS THAT DO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MAINLY
BE LIMITED TO TERRAIN AREAS AND LIKELY MISS THE TERMINALS. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH DEPARTS, CLOUDS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT AND TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A
POSSIBILITY OF FOG/MIST DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KPSF NEAR AND
JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND,
HOWEVER CLOUD COVERAGE COULD LIMIT THIS. MORE CONFIDENCE WILL
COME WITH THE FOLLOWING TAF CYCLES. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST 5-10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW
WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...53
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