539
FXUS61 KALY 221137
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
MORNING FLURRIES TAPER OFF TODAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN
AND TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
THOSE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS, SUNDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK,
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
UPDATE...AS OF 6:35 AM EST
LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES CONTINUE
ACROSS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL DISTRICT, AND
BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH RECENT RADAR TRENDS DO
SHOW WEAKENING RETURNS, SUGGESTING THAT THE FLURRIES ARE FINALLY
STARTING TO DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS AS ANY REMAINING FLURRIES LIFT NORTHWARDS.
OTHERWISE, ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP BY A COUPLE DEGREES WHERE
THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN MORE CLEARING. BATTLE OF CLEARING VS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS HAS
LED TO VERY START TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS OVER SHORT DISTANCES,
WITH KALB AT 20 DEGREES AND KGFL AT -6 DEGREES THIS MORNING.
OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES TO BETTER
ALIGN WITH CURRENT TRENDS, PREVIOUS FORECAST OVERALL REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH MORE DETAILS BELOW ON WHAT SHOULD BE A TRANQUIL
AND SEASONABLE DAY...
PREVIOUS
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED NEAR THE APPALACHIANS OF WV, WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTHWARDS INTO CENTRAL NY JUST TO OUR WEST.
NEVERTHELESS, WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -10 TO -12C AND LOW-LEVEL NW
FLOW TRAJECTORIES, WE ARE SEEING RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES EXTENDING FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
THROUGH THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTHWARDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS BACK MORE TO THE
WEST. WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AS
SEEN ON THE 00Z KALY SOUNDING, THESE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO THIS MORNING. FORTUNATELY, WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW FROM THESE FLURRIES.
AREAS UNDER THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD BLANKET ARE RELATIVELY WARM,
WITH TEMPERATURES HERE IN UPPER 10S TO AROUND 20. TO THE SOUTH,
THERE IS MORE CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS WHERE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM, WITH 10S FOR SITES
MAINTAINING A LIGHT WIND. FURTHER NORTH OF THE CLOUD SHIELD,
CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND A DEEP SNOWPACK HAVE ALLOWED FOR
VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIVE COOLING, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. OLD FORGE IS CURRENTLY THE
COLDEST SPOT IN OUR CWA AT 9 BELOW ZERO PER THE NYS MESONET.
THIS MORNING, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,
RESULTING IN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTH/EAST TODAY, BUT WILL RETAIN
ENOUGH INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION TO RESULT IN TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST AND THE AIRMASS ALOFT
WARMS, LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARDS INTO THE
WESTERN ADKS AND EVENTUALLY DIMINISH BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH
A MODERATING AIRMASS ALOFT, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH 20S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND 30S
FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
TONIGHT, THE FIRST UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST, BUT
ANOTHER ONE WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO AND STALL OVER OUR
REGION. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE ADKS DUE TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
WESTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO, AS WELL AS POSSIBLY IN THE
SOUTHERN GREENS WITH SOME ADDED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. OVERALL,
THOUGH, MOST OF THE REGION REMAINS DRY. THERE WILL BE MORE
CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
WARMER SIDE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 10S IS THE TERRAIN TO 20S FOR
THE VALLEYS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A FEW LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY. HOWEVER, THESE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND
MORE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BUILDS OVER OUR REGION BENEATH CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT.SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 30S FOR SOME VALLEY AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE SOME CLOUDS TO DEAL WITH AS THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARDS AS A WARM FRONT,
AND SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ALOFT. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 10S TO 20S, WITH SOME OF
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WHERE THERE COULD BE MORE CLEARING AND LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE HIGH.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MONDAY STARTS OFF MAINLY DRY, BUT A
FAIRLY POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW/CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF OUR REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR LITTLE
TO NO QPF FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90, AS THE BETTER
UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION. WITH OUR
AREA IN THE SYSTEM'S WARM SECTOR, TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE, WITH MANY VALLEY AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-90 EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
DOWNSLOPING OFF OF THE CATSKILLS COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
HERE TO END UP SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. ANY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST, BUT WE REMAIN CLOUD
OVERNIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD (SEE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS). WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS, AND A LIGHT WIND, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
WARMER FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, WITH 20S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND 30S
IN THE VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW AT
TIMES.
DISCUSSION:
A PARADE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERMAL
PROFILES (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES) FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL FAVOR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WITH EACH PASSING SYSTEM WITH MOST ALSO LACKING
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RESULTING IN OVERALL LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. ANY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, ALBEIT LIGHT, STILL LOOK TO FAVOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE REMAINS SOME RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF EACH SYSTEM BUT OVERALL TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY WITH HIGHER SPREAD ON ANY TIMING OF FEATURES AFTER
THURSDAY. TRENDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE THURSDAY SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
CONTAINING MORE QPF VERSUS THE OTHERS BUT A WEAKER, MORE PROGRESSIVE
LOW AS ANY PHASING OCCURS WELL TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/SUN...TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AT
KALB/KGFL/KPSF WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES AND ALSO
PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS. THESE SITES SHOULD TREND INTO THE VFR RANGE
BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. KPOU IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT, THROUGH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS LOOK TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE TAF SITES. WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MAIN
NEAR TERM...MAIN
SHORT TERM...MAIN
LONG TERM...RATHBUN
AVIATION...RATHBUN
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