678
FXUS61 KALY 271932
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
332 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NEW YORK AND LITCHFIELD, BERKSHIRE, AND BENNINGTON COUNTIES IN
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT.
WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN INCREASED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT FOR DUTCHESS AND
ULSTER COUNTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
COULD BE SEVERE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
2) THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF
URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS ULSTER AND DUTCHESS
COUNTIES.
3) A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS, BUT NO ADDITIONAL
SEVERE STORMS OR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. SEASONABLE AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS
LATEST RADAR SCANS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND IT WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO WESTERN QUEBEC FOR TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST. SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND A SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE
MAIN FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH LOOK TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON HOURS.
THERE LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS TODAY. THE 00Z HRRR AND 00Z SPC HREF BOTH SHOWS
INSTABILITY SHOULD REACH THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE, ESPECIALLY
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
TODAY. AS A RESULT, STORMS LOOK TO ORGANIZE INTO SMALL BOWS OR
LINES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BRINGING A
THREAT FOR STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE. SOME THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL AS WELL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE
FOR ANY SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE AND THE 00Z HRRR DOES
SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL HELICITY, ALTHOUGH SIG TOR
PARAMETERS LOOKS TO MAX OUT AROUND 1-2 TODAY, MAINLY FOR
EASTERN AREAS. AI/ML GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TODAY AS WELL AND HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS SIGNAL FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) AND IT
NOW IS IN PLACE FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE ALY FORECAST AREA.
STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING, BUT WILL START TO DIMINISH
BETWEEN 8 PM AND 10 PM, AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS INSTABILITY TO WANE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HAS BEEN
EXPANDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE ALMOST ALL OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. PWAT VALUES WILL BE SURGING TO
1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THANKS TO
THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, SO
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. RAINFALL RATES CAN
EASILY REACH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT.
CAMS SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND
SOME AREAS MAY SEE TRAINING OF PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE CAMS
(ESPECIALLY THE RRFS) SUGGESTS THAT LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS
MAY EXCEED 4 INCHES. WHILE THE PLACEMENT HAS VARIED SOMEWHAT
FROM RUN-TO-RUN, THE CONSENSUS IN ENSEMBLES SEEMS TO SUGGEST
THAT SOUTHERN AREAS (ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES) MAY HAVE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, AS CELLULAR ACTIVITY MAY
OCCUR IN ADDITION TO A MAIN LINE OF STORMS. AS A RESULT, HAVE
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR
ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES, WHICH ALSO MATCHES UP WITH THE
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM WPC.
URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS WOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING, WHICH MAY RESULT IN DAMAGED AND IMPASSABLE ROADWAYS.
AS ALWAYS, TRAVELERS ARE REMINDER TO NEED CROSS FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
IN ADDITION TO SOUTHERN AREAS, OTHER PARTS OF THE AREA MAY
STILL SEE FLOODING RAINFALL AND SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST PARTS
OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VT COULD SEE REPEATED
DOWNPOURS AS WELL, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND POSSIBLY
EXPAND THE CURRENT WATCH FURTHER NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE STORM'S MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING ON FRIDAY. A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY,
MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
LOWER THAN THURSDAY. THERE WON'T BE AS MUCH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR, SO STORMS WON'T BE ABLE TO BECOME SEVERE AND PROBABLY
WON'T BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING.
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
OVER THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, WITH
VALUES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WILL TURN SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
AND WARMER ON SUNDAY, BUT IT LOOKS TO STAY DRY WITH A PARTLY
SUNNY SKY AND HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL START TO DETERIORATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT KENX RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHOWERS ALREADY ENTERING THE REGION AS
WELL AS SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN ABOUT 18Z AND 24 ACROSS ALL THE
TERMINALS RESULTING IN LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR, IF ANY
DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINALS. A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD OCCUR AROUND 00Z HOWEVER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL REMAIN
MVFR. DUE TO THE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW T/TD SPREAD,
FOG/MIST COULD DEVELOP ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS, WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING KGFL AND KPSF TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME THAT ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS OVER THE TERMINALS
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS
MENTIONED IN A PROB30 FOR KGFL, KALB, AND KPOU. ANY FOG AND SHOWERS
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNRISE, HOWEVER PESKY LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS ALL SITES, WITH
KPSF LIKELY REMAINING MVFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND GUSTS NEAR 35 KT WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. TONIGHT WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND/OR CALM BEFORE INCREASING
AFTER SUNRISE WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT KGFL,
KPOU, AND KPSF AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT KALB.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ063>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27/05
AVIATION...53
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