110
FXUS61 KALY 181815
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
215 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TWO END-OF-WEEK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW, RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SLIPPERY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY, BUT COLD
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON THU, BRINGING JUST
20-30% POPS TO AREAS NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY. A COATING TO < 1" OF
SNOW MAY OCCUR IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS.
SW WINDS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THU P.M. A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THU NIGHT, BEFORE A STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON FRI. MAIN FORCING ARRIVES FRI AFTERNOON
INTO FRI EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CONTINUED W-NW FLOW, ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN SOME HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS. A
COATING TO ~1" MAY ACCUMULATE IN PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY SLIPPERY TRAVEL. QPF RANGES FROM
AROUND 0.15" TO AS MUCH AS 0.45" IN FAVORED SW UPSLOPE AREAS.
THIS PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN EXPECTED LIMITED RUNOFF CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES.
IN WAKE OF THE FIRST CLIPPER, SAT LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH ANOTHER
SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HOWEVER, THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE AND STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO QUICKLY APPROACH IN
THE FAST W-NW FLOW REGIME LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS MAINLY RAIN IS FAVORED AGAIN IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH. WHILE A LOW PROBABILITY, SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR IF THE COLD FRONT TIMING SPEEDS UP WHILE A POTENTIAL
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RESULTS IN ADDITIONAL FORCING. LATEST NBM
24-HR PROBS FOR > 1" OF SNOW ARE 10-25% ACROSS THE REGION
ENDING 8 AM MON. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE IN AGAIN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT
LOOK QUITE AS COLD AS TUE-WED THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
RANGING BETWEEN 4 AND 8 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT EXCEPT AT KALB REMAINING SOUTH BETWEEN 4 TO 8 KNOTS.
WINDS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...05
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