238
FXUS61 KALY 090746
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
246 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY RESULTING FROM A COMPLEX WINTER SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE INCLUDED MORE ICE IN THE WEATHER FORECAST
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGES
- WETTED ROAD AND WALKING SURFACES FROM SNOW MELT, BROUGHT ON
MY MILD TEMPERATURES, AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM A
PASSING COLD FRONT TODAY, COULD POSE SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW, TO,
AND JUST ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND WINDS DECREASE.
- HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS,
EASTERN CATSKILLS, HELDERBERGS, BERKSHIRES, AND SOUTHERN
GREENS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LIGHT
ICE ACCRETION FROM FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
- MINOR RIVER RISES FROM SNOW MELT AND UPCOMING RAINFALL WILL
RESULT, AT MOST, IN NUISANCE PONDING OF WATER IMMEDIATELY
ALONG RIVER BANKS. THE BRIEF DURATION OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTATION FOR LOW AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
TRACK TO OUR NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, FORCING A SERIES OF FRONTS TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. INITIALLY, A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH
THE REGION FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING BATCH OF SHOWERS. WHILE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE
DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH, THE ORIENTATION OF THE INCOMING UPPER-
LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL PLACE US IN ITS
FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO PROVIDE MOISTURE; A SURGE IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION; AND OVERALL LIFT FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
ITSELF, WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO MAKE
SHOWERS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE MOST
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE, SOME COULD BECOME LOCALLY
MODERATE ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK
VALLEY, AND UPPER-HUDSON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTERSECTS STEEPENED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 6.5 C/KM WITHIN THE PSEUDO-WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. AND,
WHILE WINDS WILL ALREADY BE ON THE BREEZIER SIDE GIVEN THE
STEEPENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AT LEAST PARTIAL MIXING DOWN OF
THE 60-70KT 850MB JET, RAPID COOLING AND PRECIPITATION LOADING
COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITHIN HEAVIER
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WARM FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS DEPARTING WITH IT TO THE EAST AND GENERALLY TAPERING
OFF. A SECOND, LESS WIDESPREAD BATCH WILL THEN APPROACH JUST
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, ALSO TRACKING FROM WEST-
NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL BE
LIGHT IN NATURE AND WILL LIKELY FALL APART BEFORE MAKING MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS PAST THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES IN
MAGNITUDE AND EXPANDS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE COMPLETED BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH DRY, NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING THE RETURN TO
REGIONWIDE DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE LATE
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHILE TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S TO LOW/MID 30S. WITH MILD HIGHS
TODAY (VALUES LARGELY IN THE 40S) LEADING TO SNOWMELT AND
SHOWERS WETTING SURFACES FURTHER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME ROAD
AND WALKWAYS COULD BECOME SLICK BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THOSE SURFACES THAT GO UNTREATED.
NOW, THERE WILL BE LIMITATIONS TO THE EXTENT OF FREEZING THAT
HAPPENS ON WETTED SURFACES DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. BUT JUST BE AWARE THAT PATCHES OF UNTREATED,
SHELTERED, AND/OR ELEVATED ROADWAYS COULD BE SLICK TOMORROW
MORNING WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING RAIN; SNOW/SLEET; AND
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
SATURDAY MORNING, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS BENEATH
ITS FAR SOUTHWARD- EXTENDING TROUGH. MEANWHILE, A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO ALIGN WITH THE AXIS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SUCH THAT A
SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC DEEPENS INTO
A LOW. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL HAVE
DEEPENED FURTHER AND DRIFTED FARTHER SOUTH WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTH AND EAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
DRIFTS OFF OR NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE, EXTENDING A WARM
FRONT HORIZONTALLY EASTWARD. STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE
INTERSECTING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS AND LOW-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD AREA OF
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION THAT WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST REMAINS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE AT
THIS TIME, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN AT LEAST HIGHER
TERRAIN REGIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY
SEEING SOME FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION. WITH OUR FAVORED POSITION WITHIN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER-LEVEL JET,
A NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND WILL DAM COLD AIR FROM A
NEARBY HIGH TO THE NORTH AGAINST NORTHWARD-FACING SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS SUCH THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING WHILE THE LOW-LEVELS WARM ABOVE. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE
DECIPHERING WHETHER OR NOT THE WARM NOSE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
MAKE THE PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET. FOR NOW, WE HAVE ERRED ON THE SIDE OF FREEZING
RAIN GIVEN THE SUFFICIENT WARM NOSE SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
HOWEVER, THIS MAY NOT BE THE ONLY PLACE TO RECEIVE SOME ICE.
WITH A HIGH LOCATED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND PREVAILING
SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, SOME COLD AIR COULD ALSO BE
DAMMED AGAINST SOUTHEAST-FACING SLOPES OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS,
HELDERBERGS, BERKSHIRES, AND SOUTHERN GREENS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALLUDE TO THIS AS WELL, THOUGH SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE A BIT
MORE VARIED IN WHETHER OR NOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW OR ABOVE FREEZING. ALL OTHER AREAS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SEE PRIMARILY RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT
ONSET.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ERODE
THE WARM NOSE AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION, WHICH WILL BECOME
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PLAY A
MAJOR ROLE IN MAINTAINING IT, TO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW. WHEN
ALL IS SAID AND DONE, ICE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0.01"
TO ROUGHLY 0.15" ACROSS OUR HIGH ELEVATION AREAS WITH THE
HIGHEST ACCRETIONS WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. SNOW WILL
PRIMARILY ALSO BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WITH TOTALS
RANGING FROM A COUPLE TENTHS TO AROUND 2" IN THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS
TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.25" TO 0.5".
THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE
FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO ICE ACCRETION THAT COULD
WEIGH OR KNOCK DOWN POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS. CAUTION IS
ADVISED FOR ANYONE WHO MAY BE OUT AND ABOUT SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WHILE WE REMAIN IN AN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR MUCH
OF THE NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BECOME WARM ENOUGH TO
POSE MAJOR BREAK-UPS OF RIVER ICE. ADDITIONALLY, DESPITE THE
RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT THAT WE ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, RIVER FORECASTS ONLY SHOW AN APPROACH TO ACTION
STAGE AT MOST. THEREFORE, ICE JAM FLOODING AND ANY FLOODING IN
GENERAL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND REMAINS A NON-CONCERN.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH DAYBREAK, MIXED CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES, WITH SOME AREAS
OF FOG/LOW STRATUS ALREADY DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KPSF. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES THROUGH SUNRISE,
THOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF VLIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. AT
KALB, A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL
08Z/FRI, THEN MAINLY VFR AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE. KPOU SHOULD REMAIN
VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING PRIOR TO
08Z/FRI.
AFTER DAYBREAK, VFR VSBYS AND VFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH
OCCASIONAL STRATUS DEVELOPING, TRENDING TO MVFR (FOR CIGS) THIS
AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE TAF SITES AFTER 18Z/FRI, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, AND AT KPOU, BRIEF GROUND FOG
COULD DEVELOP AND REDUCE CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR. OVERALL CONDITIONS
SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT TO VFR TOWARD AND AFTER 06Z/SAT IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK EXCEPT BECOMING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KT AT KALB. AFTER DAYBREAK, SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 8-15 KT BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25-30 KT
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 KT
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST BETWEEN
03Z-05Z/SAT AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUE MUCH OF FRIDAY AS STRONG
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL DEVELOP, REACHING 40-50 KT WHILE
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY 10-20 KT WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS
(MAINLY AT KALB/KPSF).
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION...24
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