313  
FXUS61 KALY 150605  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION,  
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING OVERNIGHT. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY  
WEATHER. ANOTHER FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING  
LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRY  
WEATHER RETURNS INTO THE MID WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 132 AM EDT...COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING  
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK. IT'S SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO PICK ITS  
EXACT LOCATION, AS THERE IS ONLY A SUBTLE TEMP/DEWPOINT  
DIFFERENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH THE MUCH DRIER AND  
COOLER AIR STILL WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW  
YORK. STILL, BASED OFF NYS MESONET OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST KENX  
RADAR IMAGERY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE  
EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY, TACONICS AND INTO WESTERN  
NEW ENGLAND. THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS ARE NOW DEPARTING INTO NEW  
ENGLAND, BUT SOME LINGERING LOW STRATUS REMAINS. AREAS THAT HAVE  
CLEARED OUT ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOP AS  
WELL, AS THE LIGHT WINDS AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE DRIER AIR  
MOVING IN IS ALLOWING FOG TO FORM.  
 
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT, THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SEEMS  
TO HAVE ENDED, AS RADAR SHOWS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND  
MESOSCALE MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE  
OCCURRING IN A BROKEN LINE FROM COASTAL NEW JERSEY  
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT WILL  
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH  
ABOUT SUNRISE, MAINLY FOR VALLEY AREAS AND LOCATIONS CLOSE TO  
BODIES OF WATER.  
 
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS,  
ALTHOUGH A FEW UPPER 40S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN  
ADIRONDACKS, WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARED THE LONGEST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
 
 
TOMORROW...A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND  
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY IN THE  
DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. A  
FEW SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BEFORE SUNSET.  
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN  
THE VALLEYS WITH A FEW UPPER 70S SPRINKLED IN OVER THE MID  
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT, AND MAINLY 60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER WITH THE  
SHORT-WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE  
IS NOT VERY STRONG, AS SOME GREAT LAKES MOISTURE IS TAPPED, AND  
SOME WEAK THERMAL ADVECTION OCCURS NORTH OF THE OLD FRONT FROM  
SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE  
FORECAST ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA  
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS-FV3/ECMWF/CMC AND THE ENSEMBLES. LOWS WILL  
BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S TO LOWER  
50S OVER THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES.  
 
MONDAY...UNSETTLED TO START THE DAY, BUT IMPROVING WEATHER BY  
THE AFTERNOON, AS THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE  
REGION WITH THE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING BY THE LATE  
MORNING/EARLY PM. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER  
THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM  
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTHWEST TO  
SOUTHEAST. IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION, 850 HPA TEMPS  
FALL TO +6C TO +10C WITH MAX TEMPS A SHADE BELOW NORMAL WITH 60S  
TO LOWER 70S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW MID 70S  
OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FAIR, TRANQUIL AND COOL WEATHER WITH  
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER SOUTHEAST  
ONTARIO AND UPSTATE NY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH IDEAL  
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME SPOTTY  
UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE  
SFC ANTICYCLONE AND RIDGE ALOFT WITH YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY  
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP.  
 
A CHECK OF THE GEFS PRECIPITATION PLUMES FOR ALBANY SHOWS NEARLY ALL  
MEMBERS FLATLINING FOR THE EXTENDED. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE GEF  
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT, PWATS REMAIN IN THE NORMAL RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY.  
925MB/850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY BEFORE RISING TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL  
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES START NEAR NORMAL  
BEFORE RISING TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY  
AND SATURDAY.  
 
AS FOR WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A  
BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR AREA FOR MOST OF THE LONG  
TERM. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN  
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES START OUT IN THE  
LOW 70S VALLEYS, 60S HIGHER TERRAIN, REACHING NEAR 80 VALLEYS AND  
60S/70S HIGHER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SOME RAIN FOR SATURDAY, THE EXTENDED IS DRY.  
 
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST TO BECOME HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS NOT  
EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER. SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER  
FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR HUMBERTO.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE  
REGION WITH ONLY WEAK MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION NOTED ON THE  
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND ISOLATED  
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST  
OF GFL AND ALB AND IS TRACKING TOWARDS PSF. GIVEN THAT SFC DEW  
POINTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH NEAR 60F AND SOME SHOWERS REACHED POU  
EARLIER TODAY, FOG AND IFR VISIBILITY HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WITH  
LOW STRATUS/IFR CEILINGS ONCE THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARED AND  
WE EXPECT IFR/MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING.  
 
PSF AND GFL CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN VFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND  
VISIBILITY DUE TO VARIABLE WIND SPEEDS. AS WINDS LIGHTEN,  
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES REDUCE TO IFR CONDITIONS BUT WHEN WINDS  
INCREASE, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. WE ILLUSTRATE THIS VARIATION  
WITH A TEMPO GROUP. ALB COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP 09Z-12Z BUT  
WITH DRIER AIR FINALLY WORKING INTO THE AREA AND DEW POINTS  
LOWERING, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.  
 
ALL SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY AROUND 13Z, WITH  
JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND WILL INCREASE  
TO AROUND 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING WITH  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD  
IN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER FRONT  
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIGHT SCATTERED  
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
 
THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 100 PERCENT SUNDAY MORNING, AND  
LOWER TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER EXCELLENT  
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED IN THE RH TRENDS WITH MAXIMUM VALUES OF 85  
TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING.  
 
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH  
TONIGHT, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL  
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN  
STEM RIVERS THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.  
 
A WEAK FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BRING LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW  
HUNDREDTHS TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL SUNDAY  
INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...WASULA  
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS  
SHORT TERM...WASULA  
LONG TERM...OKEEFE  
AVIATION...SPECIALE  
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA  
HYDROLOGY...WASULA  
 
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