697
FXUS61 KALY 080633
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 AM EST SUN MAR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT AND A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS SOME RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND A COOL DOWN TO
SEASONABLE TEMPS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. THE PERSISTENT SNOW
MELT MAY CAUSE SOME HYDRO CONCERNS NEXT WEEK COUPLED WITH THE
RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED INTO THE
MID WEEK FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH,
ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WILL AID
IN SNOW MELT, POTENTIAL RIVER RISES, AND A SUBSEQUENT THREAT OF
ICE JAMS AND MINOR FLOODING.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT, BRINGS STRONG GUSTY WINDS, COLDER
TEMPS AND A RAIN TO SNOWFALL TRANSITION (FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION) IN THE WED NIGHT THRU THU TIME FRAME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS
MORNING. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR, BUT WITH THE WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY TREND WARMER ACROSS A
BROADER AREA OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND AN INCREASE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DECREASE.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MAJOR VALLEYS WITH SOME UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F READINGS NEAR
I-84. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS 20-30 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND DECREASING WINDS. LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO 30S
WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN SOME OF THE RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY 15-20+ DEGREES IS
EXPECTED MON THRU WED. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS
FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE EAST COAST, AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN MON TO TUE. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE 1 TO 2 STDEVS ABOVE
NORMAL, AS H850 TEMPS ALSO DO BASED ON THE NAEFS. HIGH TEMPS ON
MON WERE ACCEPTED CLOSE TO A NBM/GFS MOS BLEND WITH UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS WITH UPPER 40 TO MID 50S OVER THE MTNS,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THE WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. ONE AREA
THAT MAY BE VULNERABLE TO SOME RISES TO ALERT OR CAUTION STAGE
ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS IS THE HOUSATONIC BASIN WITH SOME
POINTS WHERE THE NERFC SIGNALS SOME STEADY RISES MON INTO TUE
(NO MINOR FLOODING YET) WHICH WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. ANOTHER
AREA TO MONITOR WILL BE THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND THE
METTAWEE NEAR GRANVILLE. TEMPS DROP BACK TO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
MON NIGHT, BUT ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IS
EXPECTED ON TUE WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASING. TEMPS SHOULD BE A NOTCH EVEN WARMER WITH 60S TO EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S NEAR KPOU WITH 50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN. SUBSTANTIAL SNOW MELT WITH SOME ICE
MOVEMENT/BREAK UP MAY OCCUR. TYPICALLY, RAINFALL AND WINDS
ACCELERATE THINGS FOR WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES, BUT SOME
ISOLATED ONES MAY START. TEMPS LOOK EVEN MILDER TUE NIGHT WITH
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. THE SNOW PACK WILL
CONTINUE TO RIPEN AND MELT, ICE ON RIVERS WILL THIN, ROT AND
POTENTIALLY BREAK UP TUE INTO WED.
WED WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST MILD DAY, AS SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS
GET INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SHORT-WAVE AND A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO IMPACT THE ADIRONDACK PARK.
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S WILL BE COMMON AGAIN, THOUGH THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE FRONT VARIES IN THE ENSEMBLES AND
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. HYDRO ISSUES MAY INCREASE BASED MMEFS
GUIDANCE (NAEFS, GEFS AND HEFS) FOR THE HOUSATONIC BASIN AND
PORTIONS FOR ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK. OVERALL, THE THREAT FOR
MINOR FLOODING MAY INCREASE WITH SNOWMELT + RUNOFF FROM SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TRANSITIONAL WEATHER LIKELY OCCURS WED
NIGHT THRU THU WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2:
THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT WITH A
WAVE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING ALONG IT LATE WED/WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY, THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SIGNALS OF H850 WINDS
INCREASING TO 50+KT HEADING INTO WED NIGHT, AND THEN ONCE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS THE H850 WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT
40-50+KT. A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT MOVES THROUGH WITH RAIN
POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THU. SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO NEED TO BE ADDED TO
THE FORECAST LATER IN TIME DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE INSTABILITY.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL VARIES ON THE ENSEMBLES/MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE, BUT A WINDY PERIOD WITH TEMPS TUMBLING BACK TO
SEASONAL OR WINTER-LIKE TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. SOME IMPACTS IN
TERMS OF WIND HEADLINES OR THE RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION MAY
OCCUR ON TOP OF ANY HYDRO ISSUE THAT ARISE. TEMPS LIKELY WILL BE
FALLING FROM THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION (EXCEPT 30S
FOR THE WESTERN DACKS) THU DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S BY NIGHTFALL WITH THE BLUSTERY WINDS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WE START THE TAF PERIOD WITH A VARIETY OF FLYING CONDITIONS DUE TO
FOG, MIST, AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. A PASSING RAIN SHOWER IS MOVING
THROUGH KPSF AND KPOU, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FOG DEVELOPING ONCE
THE SHOWER IS DONE. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE
THROUGH 8-9Z THEN FLUCTUATE THEREAFTER BETWEEN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
VISIBILITY AS LOW AS A QUARTER OF A MILE HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN A
TEMPO GROUP FOR KPOU THROUGH 8Z. OTHERWISE, LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
CONTINUE THROUGH 11Z WHEN CONDITIONS AFTER 11-12Z GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO A MIX OF MVFR/VFR AND BY 18Z, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS CONTINUE AT KALB
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER 18Z TO LESS
THAN 20 KNOTS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE AT KGFL
AND KPOU. FOR KPSF, WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTH AND WEST-
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KNOTS THROUGH 11Z. THEN, WINDS INCREASE
FOR THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.
LLWS CONTINUES AT ALL TAF SITES FOR 35-45 KNOTS AT 2 KFT THROUGH 11-
12Z.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY TO TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31 KTS.
LIKELY RA...SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05
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