605
FXUS61 KALY 241754
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING UNTIL THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH AROUND 1035 HPA WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FOR
CHILLY LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. OUR FORECAST WAS
A BLEND OF THE NBM/MAV GUIDANCE. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS TO MODERATE
TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.
PWATS WILL STILL RUN 1 TO 2 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL BASED ON THE
LATEST NAEFS GUIDANCE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE VALLEYS AND 50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY MILDER IN THE 30S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRENDING ZONAL
WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MORE SURPRESSED OVER THE MS
VALLEY. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY FORM WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
SOME AND LIGHT WINDS. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED TO OPEN THE WEEK BRINGING SOME CLOUDS WITH A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS RISE
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S TO MID AND SPOTTY UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH A STRONG
CANADIAN ANTICYLONE BUILDING IN ONCE AGAIN WITH MORE DRY
WEATHER FOR TUE THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. A WARM FRONT WITH SOME CLOUDS AND LIMITED
MOISTURE DRIFTS THROUGH THU WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
APPROACHES ON FRIDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY
IMPACT LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION, BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE GOING ON CLOSE TO TWO WEEKS WITHOUT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SUN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH ANY LINGERING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON GIVING
WAY TO SKC CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON ANY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...33
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