827
FXUS61 KALY 091849
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
249 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND A WIDESPREAD
FROST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO SEASONAL LEVELS.
CLOUDS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AS A COASTAL LOW WILL
BRING SOME RAINFALL AND BRISK CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT/FRI MORNING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND, WHERE A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 249 PM EDT...A BEAUTIFUL OCTOBER AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A 1037 HPA SURFACE HIGH RIDGING
IN FROM SOUTHEAST ONTARIO/SOUTHWEST QUEBEC OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH IS YIELDING
SUNNY SKIES WITH MAX TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS, WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FREEZE WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST, WHERE THE GROWING SEASON
CONTINUES (OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS). LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE FREEZE WARNING RUNS FOR MOST OF
EASTERN NY AND ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 9 AM.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL
AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
VALLEYS AND UPPER 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING,
BUT NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT. SOME ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED OUTSIDE THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/MID HUDSON
VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. PATCHY FOG MAY
ALSO OCCUR NEAR OR WITHIN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS.
SAT-SAT NIGHT...THE BETTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR HERE
WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HANGING ON NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. A COMPACT/CLOSED LOW WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHILE A COASTAL LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
CAROLINAS SAT PM. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL REBOUND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID/UPPER
60S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE ATTEMPTS TO
PHASE WITH THE COASTAL LOW SAT NIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAY GET CLOSE TO THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN 40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION/SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND MID 30S TO
AROUND 40F NORTHWARD OF THESE AREAS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- A COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY BRING 24-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN
INCH OR MORE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BASED
ON THE LATEST NBM.
DISCUSSION:
THE LATEST NBM/ENSEMBLES/SOME OF THE MEDIUM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
GFS/ECMWF SUPPORT A COASTAL LOW FORMING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE DELMARVA REGION AND COASTAL NJ ON SUNDAY BRINGING
SOME OVER RUNNING RAINFALL WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE
RAINFALL WOULD INCREASE SOUTH OF I-90 LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY, AS AN ANOMALOUS LOW-
LEVEL JET ADVECTS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. SOME EAST/NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS MAY INCREASE TO 30-40 MPH OFF THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
HIGHER TERRAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL LOW PHASE AND FORCES THE COASTAL LOW SOUTHWARD MON INTO
MON NIGHT WITH THE RAINFALL TAPERING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL VARIES, BUT BASED ON THE LATEST NBM 1-2"
OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD AND
LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL TREND FROM SEASONAL
READINGS ON SUN IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TO COOLER TEMPS WITH
THE RAINFALL MON IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH THE BRISK
CONDITIONS.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER TUE INTO WED WITH SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
RIDGING IN MID WEEK INTO THU WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL READINGS
AND POTENTIALLY DRIER TRENDS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE AREA. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE IT REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. ENOUGH A PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL IN PLACE KEEPING
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 8-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE AREA, WINDS WILL BE CALM FOR TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE VERY DRY AND COLD AIR MASS IN
PLACE, NO RADIATIONAL FOG IS EXPECTED.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY, SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. A SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY THE MID TO
LATE MORNING FOR ALL SITES WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA.
COLUMBUS DAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
HYDROLOGY
A COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK CLOSE TO THE THE NJ AND LONG ISLAND
COAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY FROM KINGSTON SOUTH TO POUGHKEEPSIE.
PLEASE MONITOR OUR LATEST FORECASTS ON THE NWPS PAGE AT
HTTPS://WATER.NOAA.GOV/AREA/ALY.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
VTZ013>015.
SYNOPSIS...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...27
HYDROLOGY...15
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