662
FXUS61 KALY 050138
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
938 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HAZY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES CONTINUES THROUGH
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW. LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 35%) FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS FOR A RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE,
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TOMORROW. LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 35%)
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
UPDATE...AS OF 9:35 PM EDT
WE DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS
EVENING TO TEMPERATURES, AS HOURLY TEMPS WERE RUNNING AS MUCH AS
6-8 DEGREES F BELOW THE PREVIOUS (NBM) FORECAST IN SOME AREAS
PER LATEST NYS MESONET AND ASOS OBS. DESPITE INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST, COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES HAS ALLOWED FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR
AREAS THAT HAVE DECOUPLED (I.E. PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS,
HELDERBERGS, AND SOUTHERN ADKS ESPECIALLY). ALSO KNOCKED
OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A COUPLE TO A FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES,
ALTHOUGH DO NOT WANT TO GO TOO FAR BELOW NBM GIVEN THAT HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, THESE ADJUSTMENTS DID
LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE OF PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. OTHERWISE,
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MORE DETAILS BELOW...
HAZY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES CONTINUES
THROUGH TONIGHT. DUE TO THE SMOKE AND HAZE ABOVE THE SURFACE,
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW TO
MID 80S. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY FOG POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S. DUE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN, HAZY SKY CONDITIONS CAN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW MORNING. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON AIR QUALITY, PLEASE SEE THE AIR QUALITY ALERT.
INCREASING CLOUDS TOMORROW WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING EXCEPT FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 35 PERCENT) FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA (SPECIFICALLY THE HRRR MODEL) FOR
SMOKE AND HAZE TOMORROW SHOWS IT COULD LINGER ABOVE THE SURFACE FOR
ANOTHER HAZY LOOK TO THE SKIES TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BUT
NOT AS THICK AS TODAY. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE UPPER LEVEL WIND
FLOW. CONTINUE TO MONITOR AIR QUALITY INFORMATION VIA AIR QUALITY
ALERTS AND AT AIRNOW.GOV. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR WEDNESDAY,
LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALBANY HAVE BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT CHANCES TO
SEE A RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS POTENTIAL TO MOVE THROUGH BRINGING
THESE LOW CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS. BY THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WITH A 10 TO 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THURSDAY AFTERNOON HAS A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT LOW CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON RAIN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALBANY.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED WITH
ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODELS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 80S.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...AS OF 7:10 PM EDT...VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH JUST A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS WIDESPREAD SMOKE/HAZE ALOFT DUE TO CANADIAN WILDFIRES.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR MOST TERMINALS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECTING A SUSTAINED LIGHT WIND AT GFL
TONIGHT TO HELP PREVENT FOG FORMATION. AT PSF, WINDS WILL BE
MORE CALM, SO THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG, ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING IT TO BE AS WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS LAST NIGHT GIVEN
MORE HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. ALB/POU SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ANY FOG/MIST DISSIPATES BY 12-13Z TOMORROW MORNING.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE SMOKE/HAZE AROUND, WITH LOW-END VFR
TO POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
SMOKE/HAZE TOMORROW WILL BE AT PSF IN THE MORNING, AND AT POU
IN THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT
GFL/PSF WHERE PROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED. LOWER CONFIDENCE AT
ALB SO WILL JUST MENTION VCSH. LOWEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM
IS AT POU, AND WILL NOT MENTION AT ALL IN THE TAFS THERE YET.
WITHIN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS, BRIEF MVFR TO IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE TOWARDS SUNSET
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT AROUND 5-7 KT TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW FROM THE N/NE AT ALB/GFL AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
POU/PSF TONIGHT. PSF SEES WINDS SWITCH TO THE E TOMORROW
MORNING, LASTING THROUGH THE DAY AT AROUND 5 KT. AT POU, WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 5 KT FROM THE SE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-
013.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ032-
033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
VTZ013>015.
SYNOPSIS...WEBB
DISCUSSION...MAIN/WEBB
AVIATION...MAIN
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