065
FXUS61 KALY 091744
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO BE QUITE AS COOL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
2) A PERIOD OF BENEFICIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY. NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.
3) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A COOLER AIR MASS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A DISTURBANCE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AREAS WELL NORTH OF I-90.
DUE TO A COLD CORE ALOFT STILL IN PLACE AND FAIRLY STEEP MID AND
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SOME SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN THE W.
ADIRONDACKS. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
CONTINUED GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS, WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING 20-30 MPH AT TIMES AND ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED AREAS FOR
CHANNELING SUCH AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL DISTRICT, N.
TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH
SAT, PROVIDING DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. IF
CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD FROST INCREASES, FROST ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM POST-T.C. ISAIAS MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING
THE WEAKENED SURFACE CYCLONE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
JUST SOUTH OF NYC SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. WHILE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL (PWAT ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 STDEV
FROM THE NAEFS), THE BEST FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTH ALONG WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR AREA. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL, WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS OF MAINLY 0.5-1.0". LATEST NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR > 1.0" OF RAIN ARE MAINLY 35%-55% WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBS SOUTH/WEST OF ALBANY. PROBS FOR > 2.0" ARE < 10%.
GIVEN SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER PRECEDING THIS RAINFALL ALONG
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF < 2.0",
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END EARLY
MON MORNING, AS THE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM QUICKLY TRACKS EAST OFF
OF THE COAST AND SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN MON AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE, IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE
WAVE, WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL
BE ALONG WITH DURATION OF PRECIP AND WIND SPEEDS. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUE INTO
TUE NIGHT, WITH LIKELY VALUES ACROSS THE W. ADIRONDACKS AND S.
VT. BEHIND THE FRONT, A COOLER AIR MASS WILL FILTER IN AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, NOTING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO BE
QUITE AS CHILLY AS IT APPEARED YESTERDAY. STILL, HIGHS COULD
STILL BE CLOSE TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER WED-
THU. IT ALSO SHOULD BE DRY DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME
LOW- TO-MID CLOUDS WILL ALSO LINGER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
SCATTER OUT THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY TOMORROW
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
COLUMBUS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...23
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