833
FXUS61 KALY 201137
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EASTERN SCHENECTADY COUNTY HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.
WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS, AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS HAVE INCREASED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
2) CONTINUING TO MONITOR AN OFF-SHORE COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FORECAST GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUPPORTS FOR LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF I-90.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT
FOR THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY AND BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS MORNING INTO SATURDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTS ONSET TIMING TO STILL BE BETWEEN
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO BEGIN AS SNOW. THE TYPE OF SNOW IS GOING TO BE INTERESTING AS
INSTEAD OF THE FLUFFY/FLAKE LIKE SNOW, IT'LL LIKELY BE MORE OF
SMALL PELLET-LIKE SNOWFLAKES THAT FALL. TEMPERATURES ARE GOING
TO CONTRIBUTE GREATLY TO WHEN THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION CHANGES
OVER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND AND ABOVE FREEZING, A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-90. FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-90, A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW
IS LIKELY BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW FOR THIS
EVENING. AN IMPORTANT FORECAST NOTE IS THAT THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT REGION AND MID-HUDSON VALLEY COULD BECOME DRY BY FRIDAY
EVENING FOR THE BEST CASE SCENARIO OF LOW PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS, IN BOTH ICE AND SNOW. THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES TO SEE BETWEEN 0.1 AND
0.25 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTE TO A
LONGER PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE FOR SATURDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW FOR
SLICK AND SLIPPERY CONDITIONS DUE TO ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL TOTAL AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN
SCHENECTADY COUNTY HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES FOR
THEM TO BE INCLUDED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. RAIN WILL
BE THE LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE AFTER THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW
ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR A COASTAL LOW STORM TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THE LATEST FORECAST SUPPORTS A TRACK FOR THE CENTER OF
THE LOW TO STAY OFF-SHORE. HOWEVER, LATEST TRENDS IN ENSEMBLE
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES HAVE THE CENTER A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THIS BRINGS LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOWFALL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
I-90. WIND GUSTS HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH ACROSS
THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS, AND LITCHFIELD HILLS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW FOR TWO
ADDITIONAL SCENARIOS TO HAPPEN. IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER INLAND, WE COULD SEE HIGHER CHANCES OF SNOWFALL. IF IT
MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA, WE'LL SEE EVEN LOWER CHANCES FOR SNOW.
NEVERTHELESS, THE LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW
CHANCES OF MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I-90. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST
FORECASTS AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/SATURDAY, VFR/MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/FRI. INITIALLY, MOST TAF SITES
WILL START AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. AFTER 2-3 HOURS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW, PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO A MIX OF
SLEET/RAIN EXCEPT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KPSF. AT KGFL, ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF MIX WITH SLEET LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 23Z/FRI AND 02Z/SAT. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP TO IFR/LIFR (BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS) ONCE
THE SNOW BEGINS, WITH MAINLY LIFR/VLIFR AT KGFL. SNOW SHOULD
TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 05Z-10Z/SAT, WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS (MAINLY CIGS) GENERALLY PREVAILING.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TO
8-12 KT BY LATER THIS MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS MAY
BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT KPSF FROM THE EAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
REACHING 20-25 KT BEFORE DECREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED AT KPSF THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO
30-40 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ041-043-050-054-061-066-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-
038>040-047>049-051-058-063-082.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ033-042-083.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...24
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