671
FXUS61 KALY 131049
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED COVERAGE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR VALLEY AREAS ON TUESDAY
WITH PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK WITH TUESDAY
THE HOTTEST AND MOST HUMID DAY OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS.
2) ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SOME
DAYS THIS WEEK BUT NO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A ~600 DM HEAT DOME WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS
EARLY THIS WEEK WITH A PIECE OF THIS HEAT EXPANDING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON
TUESDAY GETTING AS WARM AS +20 TO +22C (+2 TO +3 STDEV). THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TREND UPWARDS EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY, MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH AT LEAST THE
LOW TO MID-90S WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 60S TO LOCALLY
NEAR 70 BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
(FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES) INCREASING INTO THE MID-90S TO LOWER
100S ON TUESDAY. HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AND COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF HEAT ADVISORIES
FOR ALL VALLEY AREAS FOR TUESDAY. THE LATEST NWS EXPERIMENTAL
HEATRISK CONTINUES TO BE IN THE MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR
(LEVEL 3 OF 4) CATEGORIES ON TUESDAY. WHILE THIS PERIOD OF HEAT
WILL BE BRIEF AND NOT AS INTENSE AS THE BEGINNING OF JULY,
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN TO PREVENT HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, A LOW-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD
WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
20 TO 30 MPH. SOME HIGHER GUSTS COULD OCCUR WITHIN PORTIONS OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL DISTRICT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. IT
IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THESE WINDS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL WARMING OR
LOWER DEWPOINTS MORE THAN WHAT IS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THERE WILL BE MINIMAL RELIEF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID-70S.
LOWERING HEIGHTS AND THE SOUTHWARD PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY BUT A
MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. IT
STILL APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN HOT AND HUMID ENOUGH FOR HEAT INDEX
VALUES (FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES) TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY FOR A SECOND DAY. IN THESE AREAS, THE HEAT
ADVISORY GOES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THERE WILL BE A
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE EACH DAY AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WHILE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK, SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AROUND FOR SOME
DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAPPING INVERSION, THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-90. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL PREVENT ANY OF
THESE FROM BEING STRONG OR SEVERE.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FOR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WHILE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA, A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH DCAPE
ACROSS THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ANY STORMS OCCUR. AS A RESULT, NORTHERN
AREAS REMAIN IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT BEST DAY FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL BE FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY ON
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND AT THE
EARLIEST.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/TUE...MUCH OF THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD WILL FEATURE
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. THE EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE FOR ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS
AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ONE PASS OVER A
TERMINAL. WIND WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KT
TODAY, REMAINING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 4-8 KT TONIGHT. THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
CLIMATE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JULY 14
ALBANY: 99 (1995)
GLENS FALLS: 98 (1995)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 99 (1954)
JULY 15
ALBANY: 96 (1997)
GLENS FALLS: 94 (1983)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 (1995)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
CTZ013.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ064>066.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ038>043-
048>050-052-053-059>061-083-084.
MA...NONE.
VT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VTZ015.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...33
CLIMATE...33
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