845
FXUS61 KALY 251756
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
156 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT (MONDAY NIGHT)
AND HAS BROUGHT WITH IT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITS NORTH OF THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN QUEBEC, AND IT IS PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO, THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS,
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. TWO MORE ROUNDS OF LAKE-ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
, PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NY, VT, AND MA.
FROM TUESDAY TO FRIDAY WE WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A WEAK
TROUGH, AND IT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN ALBANY IN THE HIGH 40S AND LOW 50S.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPDATE...AS OF 1:35 PM EDT
WIDESPREAD MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3/4 OF THE REGION. THIS HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. FURTHER SOUTH, THERE IS LESS
CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, BUT OVERALL
MOST OF THE REGION IS DRY THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEW POINTS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS,
BUT OVERALL PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MORE
DETAILS BLOW...
PREVIOUS
OUTSIDE OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY FOR
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA
REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY, MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGE BETWEEN A
TRACE TO UP TO 3 INCHES IN NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRODNACKS, THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, AND
ELSEWHERE RANGING IN THE 40S. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH.
WINDS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME CALMER FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A QUICK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OF UP TO 0.1 INCHES IS IN THE FORECAST WITH MOST LOCATIONS JUST
SEEING A TRACE. FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT, UPSLOPE SNOW IS FAVORED BY
LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES FOR TOMORROW WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN A TRACE TO UP TO 1 INCHES IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS RANGE BETWEEN A TRACE AND UP TO 2 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY COULD SEE HIGHS ON THURSDAY UP TO 50 DEGREES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. THURSDAY NIGHT
HAS LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 30 PERCENT) OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS
POTENTIAL TO MOVE THROUGH FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF ALBANY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH A BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY.
- SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH 40 TO 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST SOME
MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
MUCH OF THE THE LONG TERM PERIOD FROM LATE FRI THROUGH MON LOOKS
UNSETTLED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP, INCLUDING SOME SNOW
AND/OR WINTRY MIX THROUGH SUN MORNING. WHILE THERE IS REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THE EXACT POSITIONS OF HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING IN SE CANADA
INTO N. NEW ENGLAND AND A WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE HIGH WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES,
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS. WITH SUCH A LARGE NORTH-SOUTH
TEMPERATURES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WITH STDEV OF 5-6 SIGMA
THROUGH MON.
DUE TO DIFFICULTY TIMING/PLACING DISTURBANCES/WAVES ALONG THE FRONT
AND THE POSITION OF THE FRONT ITSELF, POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH/EAST, THERE WILL BE SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR AND DEEP
ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW INITIALLY. HOWEVER, THERE WILL ALSO BE
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SOME MIXED PRECIP. NBM PROBS FOR > 1" SNOW ARE ~30-50 PERCENT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND S. GREENS. PROBS FOR > 0.01" ICE ARE 30-60 PERCENT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA, GREATEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
BY SUN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME WARM ENOUGH FOR PLAIN
RAIN, AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH FLAT UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT, WITH OUR AREA POSSIBLY GETTING INTO A SMALL WARM
SECTOR ON MON. SOME GUIDANCE HAS THE PRIMARY CYCLONE WELL NORTH,
WHILE OTHERS SHOW THE CYCLONE PASSING BY MUCH CLOSER LATE MON. THE
CYCLONE TRACK WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR DETERMINING EVENTUAL RAINFALL
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
18Z TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL OUT OF THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST. SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT, BUT A GRADUAL DECREASE IS
ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET AND INTO TOMORROW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
FOG COULD DEVELOP AT KGFL BETWEEN 05-08Z DUE TO HIGH LOW-LEVEL RH
AND LIGHT WINDS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS OCCURRENCE JUST
YET. THEREFORE, JUST INPUT A TEMPO FOR MVFR VISIBILITY DURING THIS
TIME.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WEBB
NEAR TERM...MAIN/WEBB
SHORT TERM...WEBB
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GANT
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