533
FXUS61 KALY 121812
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
212 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS AND QPF FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH. INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
FOR NORTHERN AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FINALLY, LOWERED
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR THE ADKS AND CATSKILLS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90, WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND STARTS OFF DRY, BUT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 2:10 PM EDT...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY HIGHER DEW POINTS PER LATEST NYS
MESONET OBS. A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TRACKING TO THE NORTH IS
ALSO ADDING SOME ENHANCED LIFT. CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A
TONGUE OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXTENDING DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AREA, SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY INTO
SOUTHERN VT. SPC HAS KEPT OUR AREA IN JUST A GENERAL THUNDER
RISK THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WE CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW
INSTANCES OF GUSTY WINDS OR EVEN SOME HAIL FOR NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THAT SAID, THREAT IS ISOLATED AT
BEST WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND VERY LOW DCAPE VALUES.
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH SOME
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF I- 90, FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE AN AREA/CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, DEPARTING INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT. 12Z HREF SUGGESTS SBCAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO 500-1000 J/KG THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA, WHILE
STRENGTHENING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR UP TO 40-45 KT. INSTABILITY SHOULD START TO WANE AFTER
SUNSET AS CONVECTION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS JUST TO OUR WEST WHERE THE TIMING LOOKS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, A FEW STRONGER STORMS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE
SOUTHERN MID HUDSON VALLEY GIVEN THE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING SHEAR. MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS, BUT WITH WBZ
HEIGHTS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 10 KFT AND LONG STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS,
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO ON THE TABLE THIS EVENING
FOR THESE AREAS.
WILL ALSO MENTION INCREASING SIGNAL FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE FAST WITH STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT, BUT SOME
TRAINING APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW PARALLEL TO
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CAMS HAVE STARTED TO COME AROUND TO
THIS IDEA, WITH THE 12Z HREF SUGGESTING A 50% CHANCE FOR >1" OF
RAIN IN 3 HRS FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TONIGHT WITH SOME
1-1.5" RAINFALL TOTALS SHOWING UP IN THE PMM. FORTUNATELY, THIS
LOOKS MORE LIKE A NUISANCE PONDING OF WATER TYPE SITUATION VS A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH FFG VALUES >1.75" IN 1 HR FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
WHILE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING, SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE AND COLD
POOL ALOFT TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 12Z HREF
IS SUGGESTING UP TO 750-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AGAIN FOR NORTHERN
AREAS TOMORROW OVERLAPPING WITH VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
HOWEVER, QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT STRENGTH OF THE FORCING AND
ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THAT MAY STIFLE CONVECTION. SO,
WHILE THREAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL UPON UPDRAFTS BEING ABLE TO GET
GOING TOMORROW, A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND/OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AGAIN ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
ADKS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, AND/OR SOUTHERN VT. SPC HAS KEPT US
IN A GENERAL THUNDER RISK FOR NOW GIVEN THE LACKLUSTER FORCING
AND MID-LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS AND COLLABORATE WITH SPC IF AN
UPGRADE TO A MARGINAL RISK MAY BE WARRANTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ON FRIDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS
OUR REGION AS A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARDS
ACROSS NY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY STRONG FORCING, CAPPING ALOFT AND
LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN, AT MOST, JUST A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, REMAINING
OVERHEAD INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ACCORDINGLY, HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
FROM THE NBM FOR WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW GENERALLY WILL BE
IN THE 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A GORGEOUS LATE-SUMMER DAY WITH
LOW HUMIDITY, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, AND HIGHS IN THE 70S. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SFC HIGH, SO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO LIKELY FEATURE LOWS IN THE
40S TO 50S.
A FAST-MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKING NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TIMING REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN, SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY
WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE AND WHETHER OR NOT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL ALIGN WITH DAYTIME HEATING ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ANY
STRONGER STORMS. FORTUNATELY, TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 13/03Z. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS UP
TO 10 KNOTS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON TOO. AFTER 13/03Z, THERE ARE
LOW CHANCES FOR KGFL, KALB, AND KPSF ON SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH 7-9Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR KPOU ON TIMING FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT BETWEEN 3Z AND 5Z, THEN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 9Z. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TERMINALS AT THIS FORECAST PERIOD, SO ALL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE MENTIONED IN
PROB30 GROUPS. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
WITH CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 9Z
AND 12Z. THEN VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY RETURN BETWEEN 11Z AND
13Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...05
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