337
FXUS61 KALY 301109
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
609 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BITTERLY COLD FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING FOR ALL
OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LEADING TO AN
INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE IF EXPOSED TO THE
COLD FOR IN LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES.
2) BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS A COASTAL LOW
MOVES JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST, WITH NO SNOW IMPACTS STILL
ON TRACK FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ALMOST ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR BITTERLY
COLD FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW.
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE BERKSHIRES, THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WHEN WE TALK
ABOUT FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES, THAT'S THE COMBINATION OF THE
ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND WIND SPEEDS OUTSIDE. WITH WINDS THIS
MORNING RANGING BETWEEN 5 AND 15 MPH AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH, IT'LL FEEL EVEN COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. LOW
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGE FROM 17 BELOW IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS TO 1 BELOW IN A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS. SO, THE
PRIMARY TAKE AWAY IS THAT COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AND EXPOSURE TO THESE TEMPERATURES FOR IN LITTLE AS 30
MINUTES CAN LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND
FROSTBITE. TRY TO LIMIT AS MUCH TIME OUTDOORS THIS MORNING AS
POSSIBLE AND CONTINUE TO DRESS FOR THE BITTER COLD WHEN HEADING
OUTDOORS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC IS STILL ON TRACK TO STAY
OUT TO SEA AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS DROPPED TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR
SUNDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE IN STORE WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
DURING THE DAY. WINDS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 75
PERCENT) OF RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS FOR THE LITCHFIELD
HILLS, BERKSHIRES, AND SOUTHERN VERMONT FOR WINDS GUSTS OVER 45
MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AS
THE COASTAL LOW HEADS FURTHER NORTHEAST BRINGING POTENTIAL WIND
IMPACTS TO THESE LOCATIONS. NEVERTHELESS, IT'LL BE A BREEZY
SUNDAY IN STORE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US. THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HAS BEEN ALLOWING FOR
SOME PATCHY STRATOCU CLOUDS. MOST AREAS ARE FAIRLY CLEAR BUT
SOME OF THESE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN IMPACTING KPSF OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME VERY LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS. THESE CLOUDS MAY LINGERING FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO, BUT SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
DURING THE DAY TODAY, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. THERE WILL
BE SCT-BKN CIGS AROUND 3-4 KFT THAT DEVELOP DUE TO THE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT, BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS THANKS TO THE GOOD MIXING, WITH
SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE, MAINLY FOR KPSF AND KALB.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS UNDER 10 KTS FOR ALL SITES. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH TOO, WITH JUST FEW-SCT STRATOCU AROUND 3-4 KFT
FOR TONIGHT WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
013.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ039>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
033-038-042-082.
MA...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...27
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