871  
FXUS61 KALY 141834  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
234 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGHLY ISOLATED, LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS  
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH  
PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT, REMAINING IN PLACE AND REINFORCING  
REGIONWIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A  
COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES THEN THREATEN TO DISTURB TRANQUILITY BY  
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BUT  
UNCERTAINTY KEEPS PROBABILITIES WITHIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
AS SEEN ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, THE SHORTWAVE LOOMING  
OVER THE REGION SINCE YESTERDAY IS CONTINUING TO SHIFT EASTWARD  
AND BEGINNING TO DEPART. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, COURTESY OF NEARBY SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE AND AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS, LIGHT, HIGHLY ISOLATED  
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE UPPER-  
HUDSON VALLEY, HELDERBERGS, LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN  
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ALONG A WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH/STATIONARY BOUNDARY  
SITUATED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS  
PAGE OUTLINES WEAK INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS COURTESY OF PLENTY  
OF SUNSHINE AMID MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IN FACT,  
THE CLOUDS IN THESE AREAS ARE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE, SO A LITTLE  
FORCED ASCENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO REACH SATURATION AND PRODUCE  
AT LEAST A SPRINKLE. BUT AS THESE ISOLATED "SHOWERS" ARE  
DEPENDENT ON DAYTIME HEATING, ANY THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY  
CEASE UPON ITS LOSS AND WHOLLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY  
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE AIDED FURTHER BY THE SWIFT INCREASE  
IN GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ALOFT IN THE FACE OF AN EASTWARD-  
BUILDING RIDGE AND SURFACE PRESSURE INCREASING AS A SOUTHEAST-  
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. CLEARING  
SKIES WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS  
LEADING TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AREAS  
AND ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 40S AND LOW  
50S.  
 
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT,  
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING  
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL AVERAGE AROUND  
+1 TO +2 STDEV ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THIS TIME, ACCORDING TO  
THE LATEST NAEFS, TRANSLATING TO ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE  
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY WILL  
SUBSEQUENTLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES  
MONDAY, SIMILARLY TO TONIGHT'S EXPECTATION, LOOK TO RADIATE DOWN  
TO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ONCE AGAIN  
IN VALLEY AREAS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT,  
HOWEVER, WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MILD WITH UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S  
POSSIBLE.  
 
SIMILARLY TO PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATES, THERE STILL REMAINS  
UNCERTAINTY PERTAINING TO THE DETAILS OF WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY'S FORECAST, THOUGH GENERALLY SPEAKING, THERE SEEMS TO  
BE A CONSENSUS WHICH KEEPS THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED COASTAL LOW  
TO OUR SOUTH AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THAT SAID, THE  
CHALLENGE REMAINS WHETHER OR NOT IT TRACKS FAR ENOUGH NORTH  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING TO INFLICT LIGHT  
SHOWERS UPON AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. AT THIS TIME,  
ENSEMBLES SEEM TO FAVOR A SOLUTION WHEREIN LIGHT SHOWERS SPREAD  
INTO THE LOWER MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEW  
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY  
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STILL VERY DRY AIRMASS AND  
OVERALL WEAK FORCING, SHOULD THIS SOLUTION BECOME THE  
REALITY, ANY RAIN THAT REACHES THE GROUND WILL BE VERY LIGHT IN  
NATURE AND NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS  
BEYOND A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. FOR NOW, ONCE AGAIN, WE DID  
NOT DEVIATE FROM THE 13Z RUN OF THE NBM WHICH PAINTED SLIGHT  
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS,  
THOUGH WITH GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO FIND AGREEMENT, CONFIDENCE IS  
INCREASING IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AND, OUTSIDE THE  
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, THURSDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID  
70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS COOLING PRIMARILY TO THE 50S OVERNIGHT.  
 
FRIDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES WELL OFF TO  
OUR NORTH AND EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ADJACENT.  
HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, THOUGH ONLY SLIGHT, INCREASE  
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SINK SOUTH AND EAST  
TOWARDS THE REGION. AS WE ARE UNABLE TO TAP INTO A CONSISTENT  
MOISTURE SOURCE THOUGH, THE OCCURRENCE, LET ALONE SPATIAL EXTENT  
OF SHOWERS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE, MAINTAINED  
THE NBM'S SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS  
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BUT AMID THE UNCERTAINTY IS ONE SURETY:  
FRIDAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY OF ABOVE-NORMAL CONDITIONS OVER THE  
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO  
DROP BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. FRIDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER  
60S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S. SATURDAY  
WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN ACROSS THE  
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS  
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE UPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
THRU 18Z MON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED PRIOR TO 06Z/MON FOR  
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS AND BKN MID  
OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.  
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES AND A VCSH  
GROUP WAS USED FROM 20Z/SUN TO 00Z/MON AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF. THE SKIES  
WILL CLEAR THEREAFTER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND SOME  
RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG DEVELOPING AT THE FAVORED CLIMO SITES, SUCH AS  
KGFL/KPSF WHERE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 07Z-13Z/MON. EXPECT  
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THEREAFTER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.  
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS  
15-20 KT AT KPSF THIS PM. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM  
TONIGHT AND BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KT OR LESS IN THE LATE  
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.  
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 
 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...GANT  
DISCUSSION...GANT  
AVIATION...WASULA  
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