918
FXUS61 KALY 231053
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
653 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2019
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO THE MORNING. OUR COLD FRONT WILL THEN GRADUALLY EXIT TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON, USHERING IN DRIER CONDITIONS.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 6:30AM...A BAND OF SHOWERS HAS OVERSPREAD INTO PARTS OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS EXPECTED DUE TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING ALONG OUR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE
IS ALSO A SHARP NORTHERN CUT-OFF WITH AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION REMAINING DRY. WHILE WE ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND DUTCHESS COUNTY
TO ACCOUNT FOR AN ENHANCED AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL PUSHING
NORTHWARD, IT WEAKENED AND THUS WE WILL ALLOW THIS PRODUCT TO
EXPIRE AT 7:30AM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS REMAINED CLOSER TO THE
CORE OF OUR 50KT 850MB JET THAT IS POSITIONED NEAR LONG ISLAND
WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY FLOODING ISSUES OUT OF OUR REGION.
OTHERWISE, NYS MESONET, ASOS AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS SHOW THESE
SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED A FEW HUNDREDTHS ON THE NORTH/WESTERN
EDGE TO 0.10 - 0.20" IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LATEST
RADAR AND CAM TRENDS SUGGEST THE ONGOING BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUING EXITING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE COMING HOURS WITH MOST
OF THE STEADIEST SHOWERS EXITING BY 14-15Z THIS MORNING. WE
HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS DRYING TREND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GOES16 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR SLOW
MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH STILL ORIENTED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PUMPING A RIBBON OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THE EAST COAST AND OVER OUR
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS, SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LATEST IR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF COOLER CLOUD TOPS IN EASTERN PA
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG OUR
BOUNDARY. LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN AN EXPANDING AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED ITS DEFORMATION BAND AND WE AGREE WITH
THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY THE HRRR) THAT
TRACK A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN INTO THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY,
CATSKILLS, WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND PARTS OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY FROM 09Z/5AM TO 15Z/11AM THIS MORNING. THIS WILL GIVE
THESE AREAS A WET MORNING COMMUTE. THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PRECIPITATION CUT-OFF FROM NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY, SARATOGA COUNTY INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY
COINCIDENT WITH THE 700MB TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE GRADIENT.
AFTER 15Z/11AM, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHOULD EXIT INTO NEW
ENGLAND, ENDING THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM 0.25 INCHES IN THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT TO AROUND 0.50 INCH SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SHARP NORTHERN AND WESTERN
CUT-OFF MEANS SHOULD LEAVE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO NEAR A
TENTH OVER THE ADIRONDACKS, WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE OUR POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD, 700MB MOISTURE
PERSISTS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON, KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH EVEN A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE (BEST CHANCES IN
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND). BY MID-LATE PM, BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD WORK
INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AS NORTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTS IN MID-LEVEL DRY AIR.
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING IN THE WAKE OF OUR BOUNDARY,
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. ACTUALLY,
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE THE COOLEST WITH HIGHS STAYING IN
THE 60S THANKS TO THE PERIOD OF RAIN IN THE MORNING AND THICKER
CLOUD COVERAGE.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR AS NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERS IN DRIER AIR AND OUR TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO THE 50S BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WITH
40S EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO
FALL INTO THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE AREA, LEADING TO LOW HUMIDITY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WITH OUR 500MB TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT
MORNING SUN TO MIX WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS AREAS REACH THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. 700MB MOISTURE IS PALTRY SO ANY DIURNAL
SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE ISOLATED. DID NOT INCLUDE
THUNDER AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW DEW POINTS IN THE 50S.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE WITH MOST AREAS WARMING INTO
THE MID- UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. WITH DEW
POINTS REMAINING LOW, WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY.
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SO EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 50S.
BY THURSDAY, RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EASTWARDS WITH
A SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO OUR AREA. AGAIN, 700MB MOISTURE
LOOKS DRY BUT THE GFS AND CMC-NH CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES SO
CONTINUED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW RETURNS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. DEW POINTS ALSO INCREASE BACK TOWARDS 60F AS WELL
DUE TO THIS FLOW REGIME. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION, AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL DOMINATE
RESULTING IN MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER, SOME SHORT WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHEAR OUT AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. WITH INCREASING WARMTH AND DEW POINTS CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 80S EACH DAY WITH 70S LIMITED TO ABOVE 1500
FEET FRIDAY AND ABOVE 2000 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SOME LOCALES IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY MAY HIT THE 90 DEGREE
MARK ON SUNDAY. AS THE DEW POINTS, HUMIDITY LEVELS, RISE SO WILL THE
HEAT INDICES. BY SUNDAY ANTICIPATING DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S WITH
HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOWER 90S UP THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH SOME MID
90S INDICES POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE NEW YORK METRO AREA AND LONG ISLAND WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. AS IT DOES THE PERSIST
RAIN WE HAVE HAD WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING, HOWEVER
CLOUDS WILL LINGER MOST OF THE DAY. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL
OCCUR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT KALB AND LATER IN
THE DAY AT KPOU AND KPSF. VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.
LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME CALM THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FIRE WEATHER
AREAS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 50
AND 70 PERCENT TODAY. MAXIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE 80 AND 95 PERCENT TONIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY SUSTAINED BETWEEN 5 AND 15 MPH WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAINING IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY NEAR OR
LESS THAN 5 MPH.
HYDROLOGY
AFTER A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL PRODUCED 0.50 TO 1.50
INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY, WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG OUR STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL AREAS OF RAIN HEADING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. OVERALL, EXPECTING THE STEADIEST RAIN THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
AND EAST INTO THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
A SHARP NORTHERN CUT-OFF. ADDITIONAL BRIEF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE WE FINALLY DRY OUT TUESDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL, EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN
(HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND). LATEST FLASH SOIL
MOISTURE PRODUCTS SHOW ONLY A FEW AREAS NEAR THE 50% SATURATED
THRESHOLD SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOODING OF
RIVERS/STREAMS/CREEKS AND ANY POOR DRAINAGE/URBANIZED FLOODING
SHOULD BE ISOLATED.
PLEASE VISIT OUR ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/
WEB PAGE FOR SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES OBSERVATIONS AND
FORECASTS.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SPECIALE
NEAR TERM...SPECIALE
SHORT TERM...SPECIALE
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SPECIALE
HYDROLOGY...SPECIALE
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