126
FXUS61 KALY 251036
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MIN TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWERED TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY
RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG ADDED FOR THE THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
AND LAKE GEORGE REGION, AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS DUE TO THE SFC HIGH NEAR NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE,
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND LOW
HUMIDITY LEVELS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON THRU THE MID WEEK ACROSS
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 AM EDT...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TO
START THE DAY AND THEN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MAINE
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY RADIATIVE
MIST/FOG IN THE MAJOR AND SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE TODAY WITH A COOL START WITH LOWS IN THE
40S TO 50S. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY WITH STILL
SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS. WE WENT CLOSE TO A MAV/NBM BLEND WITH
HIGHS 80-85F IN THE VALLEYS AND 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS
WITH A FEW UPPER 60S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SUPPORT RADIATIVE COOLING ONCE AGAIN,
AND WE WENT BELOW THE NBM MINS FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PATCHY
RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE GLENS
FALLS/LAKE GEORGE REGION, PORTIONS OF THE UPPER AND MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS TOWARDS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY. THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SLIGHT
MODERATION AND WARMING TREND IN TEMPS, AS A WEAK SFC ANTICYLONE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FROM NEAR NOVA SCOTIA SOUTHWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY, THOUGH WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP ALOFT.
AN ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWER OR T-STORM IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
WEST/SOUTH DACKS. OTHERWISE, DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
50S IN THE VALLEYS WHICH WILL BE QUITE COMFORTABLE. HIGHS TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS/HILLS
AND 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (I.E. NORMAL HIGH FOR
ALBANY IS 84F CURRENTLY). UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN TO
START THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE, AS A SHORT-WAVE MOVES
TOWARDS AND ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
INSTABILITY LOOKS MODEST WITH WEAK SHEAR ON MONDAY BASED ON
SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE SHOWERS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED T-STORMS MAY BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST. MAX
TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK SEASONABLE WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDWEEK, THE FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY
MORE UNSETTLED WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND. THE GUIDANCE VARIES WHERE A MORE POTENT SHORT-WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND IMPACTS THE REGION BY TUE-TUE
NIGHT. A MORE RECENT TREND WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES IS FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND IT BRINGS PERIODS OF SHOWERS/RAIN AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TUE-TUE NIGHT WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS WITH THE SFC
WAVE AND UPPER LOW THRU WED. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE
ENSEMBLES HAVE A 990-995 HPA LOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL NY BY TUE PM
CLOSING OFF WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY SETS UP, BUT
THE SHEAR IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE. PWATS DO SURGE TO ABOUT 1.50"
WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION ON TUE, AND THE LATEST NAEFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALL 2-3 STDEVS
BELOW NORMAL. NBM 24-HR PROBABILITIES >1" OF RAINFALL ARE 45-60%
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z/WED
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THEREAFTER. PWAT ANOMALIES FORM
THE LATEST NAEFS ARE 1-2 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL. WPC GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS ABOUT 1-2.5" OF RAINFALL FOR TUE THRU WED AND THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A 'MARGINAL
RISK' FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT & WED-WED NIGHT. ANTECEDENT SOIL
CONDITIONS ARE DRY (NOT MUCH RAINFALL THE PAST 5-DAYS) LEADING
INTO THE EVENT WITH HIGH GRIDDED FFG VALUES. HOWEVER, ANY
TRAINING CELLS OR BANDS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS,
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING OR AN ISOLATED
INSTANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD. THIS EVENT COULD BE A WIDESPREAD,
BENEFICIAL SOAKING RAINFALL TOO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TEMPS TREND COOLER THAN NORMAL TUE-THU WITH THE MID AND UPPER
CLOSED/CUT-OFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND RAIN-COOLER AIR.
THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO DECREASE AND BECOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
BY THU...WITH FAIR WEATHER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS TO CLOSE
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CUMULUS AND A FEW-SCT CIRRUS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
THE TAF SITES FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME
PATCHY RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG MAY IMPACT KGFL/KPSF 06Z-12Z/SUN
WITH IFR OR BRIEFLY LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS. WE PLACED SOME
MIST IN THESE SITES. THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AT
4-8 KT IN THE LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT TO CALM SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER 00Z/SUN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
DEFINITE SHRA...CHANCE OF TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...CHANCE OF
TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...15
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page