225
FXUS61 KALY 202347
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
747 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS FOR UPSLOPE RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS, WHICH IS ELEVATION DEPENDENT.
ADDED PATCHY FOG TOMORROW MORNING FOR A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) OUR FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SNOWFALL. OUR SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS LOW
IMPACTS FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTERNOON UPDATE...LATEST RADAR SCANS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS OCCURRING, WITH LIGHT WET SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION TO END QUICKLY THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST,
WITH LATEST SURFACE TRENDS TO OUR WEST SUPPORTING A FASTER END
TO PRECIPITATION. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE
UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TO OCCUR HERE HAS INCREASED WITH LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITIES OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. PRIMARILY ACROSS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET,
COULD OBSERVE THESE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE ELEVATIONS
BELOW COULD OBSERVE THE LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS INTO TOMORROW
MORNING BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REGION. PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG. OTHERWISE, THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT
COULD SEE LIMITED IMPACTS DUE TO PATCHY BLACK ICE/SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS ARE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
MORNING DROP INTO THE 20S. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS ON TRACK
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM, PLEASE READ BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SATURDAY WILL THEREFORE BE DRY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT CLIPPER THAT WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONTAIN ITS FAIR SHARE OF
UNCERTAINTY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE.
SIMILARLY TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM, ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT, TRACKING ORIGINALLY FROM
THE UPPER-MIDWEST. DISSIMILARLY, THIS IS ACTUALLY ONE OF SEVERAL
LOW CENTERS SPANNING A BROAD SWATH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDS SOUTH AND WEST AS FAR AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG AN
ELONGATED COLD FRONT. BY THE TIME THE LOW ADJACENT TO OUR AREA
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES, UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL AND FAIRLY COMPACT WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM AND THE FURTHER DEEPENED SHORTWAVE OF THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM JUST DOWNSTREAM OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS WILL
CREATE A FAIRLY COMPACT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR AREA THAT, AT
THIS POINT, LOOKS TO SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
SUBSEQUENTLY AN INITIAL ONSET TYPE OF SNOW ALMOST EVERYWHERE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID, IF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS A
BIT FARTHER NORTH, MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR PLAIN RAIN WOULD
BE THE SOLUTION FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS. A FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK OF THE LOW WOULD MEAN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW ACROSS MORE OF THE REGION. THE CURRENT FORECAST ERRS ON THE
SIDE OF THE LATEST TRENDS OF THE LOW TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH,
BUT THAT IS A BIT DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WHAT'S IMPORTANT
TO NOTE HERE, THOUGH, IS THAT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND DIURNAL MODERATION OCCURS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY, SNOW WILL ULTIMATELY TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AND PLAIN RAIN UNTIL SNOW RETURNS AGAIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. WE
DON'T ANTICIPATE, AT LEAST AT THIS TIME, ANY FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT THE UNCERTAINTY PERTAINING TO THE
POSITION OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTING DURATION AND SPATIAL
SPREAD OF SNOW POSES UNCERTAINTY IN THE RESULTING ACCUMULATIONS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS AND PROVIDE
UPDATES/ISSUE ANY HEADLINES SHOULD THEY BE NEEDED.
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT,
BUT BY TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN TO FORCE THE
RETURN OF REGIONWIDE DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/SUN...A CLIPPER LOW AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. THE LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH FROM KALB-KPSF SOUTH AND EAST TO KPOU 00Z-04Z/SAT. SOME
LINGERING LIGHT DRIZZLE/SHOWERS WILL PERSISTS A FEW HOURS FOR
KGFL AND TEMPO GROUPS WERE USED TO ADDRESS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WAKE AND THE COLD FRONT AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT SOME CIGS MAY LOWER TO IFR RANGE AT KPSF AND
POSSIBLY KGFL. WE KEPT THE CIGS MVFR AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU
THEREAFTER IN THE 1.5-3.0 KFT AGL RANGE WITH IFR CIGS AT KPSF.
THE COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z-12Z) AS CIGS WILL BEGIN RISE TO HIGH
MVFR/VFR LEVELS IN THE 2.0-3.5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 7 KT OR LESS UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 06Z-10Z/SAT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW GUSTS 16-18 KT AT KALB/KPSF. LLWS IS EXPECTED AT
KPSF UNTIL 03Z/SAT WITH 2000 FT WINDS AROUND 40 KT AND SFC WINDS
5 KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12/05
AVIATION...15
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