128
FXUS61 KALY 251813
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
213 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL WEATHER WITH LOW HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE A FEW
ISOLATED HIGH-TERRIAN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW HUMIDITY EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 2:10 PM EDT...CURRENT GOES 16 WV IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW (ULL) CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, WITH
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGHING TRACKING OVER OUR REGION. AT THE
SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING EAST OF HUDSON BAY,
AND IT'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS NOW TRACKED OFF TO OUR EAST
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. WHILE CURRENT RADAR IS FAIRLY QUIET
ACROSS OUR REGION, THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM
BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT, AND WE COULD SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES DEVELOP AS THE COLD POOL TRACKS
EASTWARDS THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEW POINTS ARE MAINLY IN
THE 50S, MAKING IT FEEL QUITE COMFORTABLE FOR MOST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ULL TO THE NORTH
AND THE ASSOCIATED LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. AS A WEAKER, SECONDARY
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING, 850 MB TEMPERATURES
DROP TO +4 TO +6C. WITH LAKE ONTARIO WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 20S C, THIS WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS TO SPREAD EASTWARDS INTO OUR WESTERN ADKS AND FAR
NORTHERN MOHAWK VALLEY AREAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, THE
DAYTIME SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH
50S FOR THE VALLEY AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN SOME OF
THE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OUR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MODULATED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT
THAT REMAIN OVERHEAD. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR
SOUTHWEST, LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR WESTERN
ADKS UNTIL 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS,
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY THANKS TO A CAPPING INVERSION
SEEN IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WITH DEEP MIXING ON TUESDAY,
IT SHOULD BECOME BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT. HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW, AND GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING WE
UNDERCUT NBM DEW POINTS BY A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S (TERRAIN) TO 70S
(VALLEYS) EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S TO
50S. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS, WE DID NOT GO
BELOW NBM TEMPERATURES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, BUT WILL MENTION THAT
ANY AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT AND DECOUPLE SHOULD SEE LOWS AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST. PATCHY FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING
NEAR HUDSON BAY AND THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF THE ULL. A WEAK WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, SO THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THOSE ON WEDNESDAY. THEN, THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT
WILL TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT WITH A LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
ARRIVAL TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AROUND TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. WHILE THURSDAY
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY OUTSIDE OF OUR NORTHWESTERN ADK AREAS, SHOWER
CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY
HOW LONG SHOWERS LAST INTO FRIDAY, AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE
DETERMINED BY WHETHER OR NOT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT. CURRENTLY, THE EURO AND ITS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT
THIS SOLUTION, WHILE THE CMC/GFS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A
SOLUTION SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE, AND HAVE CAPPED POPS FRIDAY AT
CHANCE (<54%).
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...BEHIND THE FRONT, BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY
BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE A FEW
SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT SATURDAY IF THE COLD POOL ALOFT
LINGERS OVERHEAD, SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH CONTINUED HIGHS IN THE 60S (TERRAIN) TO 70S
(VALLEYS) AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/TUESDAY, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR
AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNSET, HOWEVER OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR EVEN IF THEY OCCUR. FOR LATER TONIGHT, THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG FORMING AT KGFL AND KPSF, WHICH COULD
PRODUCE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE, DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KT
TOWARD AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING TO 6-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MAIN
DISCUSSION...MAIN
AVIATION...KL
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