894
FXUS61 KALY 061836
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
236 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE GREATEST RISK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT TRENDING TOWARDS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY, GREATER CAPITAL REGION, SOUTHERN VT SOUTHWARD
BASED ON LATEST CAMS IN THE MID/LATE PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT.
WINDS WERE INCREASED LATE THIS PM INTO TOMORROW BASED ON THE
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, AND THE COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH BETTER MIXING.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS FROM THE NBM WARMER VALUES MON/TUE 2-4 DEGREES
BASED ON THE WARM BIAS AND BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH OTHER GUIDANCE.
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES HOW WARM THE FORECAST AREA GETS IN THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR MOST
OF THE REGION OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, WHICH HAVE A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5). THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS, BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.
2) COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATE SUN INTO MON WITH TEMPS
TRENDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 235 PM EDT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM /~1000 HPA/ CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ONTARIO INTO SOUTH QUEBEC EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, AS A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH PRODUCED SOME
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
EARLIER TODAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED THE
INSTABILITY SO FAR OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, LAKE GEORGE
NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN-CENTRAL VT. THE
BEST SBCAPE BASED ON THE LATEST SPC RAP MESO-ANALYSIS IS FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION, EXTREME SOUTHERN VT SOUTH AND
WEST IN THE 500-1000+ J/KG RANGE. THE CAMS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY AND A LITTLER LATER WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BETWEEN THE COLD
FRONT AND SFC TROUGH. LOW AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AND THE BETTER MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING WILL BE OVER
WESTERN-CENTRAL NY. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP WITH GUSTS 35-50 MPH
SEEN OVER WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE POSITIVELY-TILTED MID AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD WITH THE LATEST
HREFS SHOWINGS MEAN SBCAPE'S RISING INTO THE 750-1250 J/KG
RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION, AND
SOUTHERN VT SOUTHWARD. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 30-40
KT. SOME DISCRETE CELLS MAY FORM BETWEEN 19Z-21Z (3-5 PM) AND
EVOLVE INTO A LINE OR BROKEN LINE WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM
SOUTH THE SOUTHERN DACKS OR ALONG THE TRI CITIES SOUTH AND
EAST. THE 3-KM NAM/WRF-ARF ARE LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE
3-KM HRRR WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE 3-KM HRRR SHOWS LESS
INSTABILITY BASED ON THE MORNING/EARLY PM SHOWERS COMPARED TO
THE 3-KM NAM/WRF. THE SFC TEMPS ARE A BIT HIGHER ON THE 3-KM
NAM/WRF-ARW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED-V SIGNATURES, STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND DCAPES IN THE 750-1000 J/KG RANGE.
THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST/WEST HELPING ADVECT INTO MORE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT WILL ALSO BE PERPENDICULAR TO THE FLOW ALOFT FOR
ANY CELLS TO FORM INTO A LINE. ALONG THE LINE...BOWING CELLS
AND COLD POOLS MAY YIELD WIND DAMAGE 20Z TO 00Z/SUN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-90. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY 5.5-6C/KM WITH
POCKETS 6-6.5C/KM, SO LARGE HAIL LOOKS LESSER OF A THREAT
COMPARED TO DAMAGING WINDS. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE WIND DAMAGE
PROBS UP TO 30% FROM SCHOHARIE COUNTY, THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND WEST. DAMAGING WINDS COULD BRING DOWN
TREES, POWER LINES AND LARGE TREE LIMBS. ENHANCED WORDING
CONTINUES IN THE FORECAST GRIDS AND WE WILL MONITOR FOR ANY
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WATCH.
PWATS RISE TO THE 1.2-1.5" RANGE AND SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING FLASH FLOODING AT THIS TIME, BUT THE THREAT IS
NON-ZERO IN CASE ANY CONVECTION TRAINS/BACK BUILDS. FFG VALUES
ARE HIGH, ITS BEEN DRY AND WE NOT HIGHLIGHTED IN THE WPC ERO.
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS IS POSSIBLE IF STORMS HAPPEN
TO TRAIN OR BACKBUILD ON/OVER ANY URBAN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS
MAY LINGER OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND NEAR
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. OTHERWISE, COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS. LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE
I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE MID AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVERHEARD.
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE, MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN. INSTABILITY IS LOW IN THE 200-500 J/KG
RANGE BASED ON THE HREFS, AS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD, BUT AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESS THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE
MID TO LATE PM. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH 60S TO
LOWER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID 70S TO SPOTTY LOWER
80S (MID HUDSON VALLEY) IN THE VALLEYS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS 20-30 MPH WITH BETTER MIXING/MOMENTUM
TRANSFER AND WE WENT ABOVE THE NBM GUIDANCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH DRIER WEATHER
AND COOLER TEMPS BRIEFLY. LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
SUN NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS. THE SFC RIDGE BRINGS MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR MON WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPS RADIATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NY AND UPPER
MID ATLANTIC CORRIDOR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHTS RISE ON TUE WITH THE SFC
HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE
NORMAL. THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY AND DUE TO THE NBM WARM BIAS
WE LOWERED 2-4 DEGREES FOR HIGHS AND COORDINATED WITH WFOS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR THE VALLEYS AND
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS WITH HEAT INDICES
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES RISE FROM THE
MID WEEK ONWARD INTO FRI. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HOW HOT WE
GET BASED ON THE LATEST NBM/WPC FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. A
WARM FRONT AND A SHORT-WAVE BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED. SFC DEWPOINTS RISE FOR THE LATE WEEK AND
WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER/MID 90S IN THE FORECAST SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NEED HEAT HEADLINES LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND,AS IT GETS MORE HUMID. AGAIN, QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES TO EXIST.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, BRINGING POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WHILE ALL TERMINAL OBS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING VFR
CONDITIONS, MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSS THROUGH THE TERMINALS DUE TO LOWERED
CEILINGS AND REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DRIVEN BY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE VERY GUSTY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP AND CROSS THROUGH TERMINAL BOUNDARY, PARTICULARLY
IF ANY BECOME SEVERE. THE PERIOD OF GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LIES BETWEEN 21Z-02Z. ONCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ENDS THIS EVENING, A FAIRLY QUICK RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
PSF WHERE AN MVFR CEILING COULD LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WITH LATEST OBS REPORTING SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 5-10KT AND A
GUST AT ALB OF 19KT. WITH THE SYSTEM'S PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO DEPART THE REGION, WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE CONSISTENTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW MORNING. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AROUND 6-10KT AND GUSTS UP TO 20KT AT ALB AND PSF. BUT
BY TOMORROW MORNING, ALL TERMINALS WILL BE GUSTING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS RANGING FROM 18-28KT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO
NOTE, TOO, THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LLWS EVERYWHERE,
EXCEPT POU, TONIGHT BETWEEN 00-08Z WHILE A LOW-LEVEL JET PASSES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...12
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