924
FXUS61 KALY 231130
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS REINTRODUCED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER
AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. ADDING A MENTION OF THE LOW-END SNOW SQUALL THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TICK SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE
STORM TRACK. ADDED MENTION OF ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER IN THE
WAKE OF SUNDAY/MONDAY STORM SYSTEM. ALL THAT SAID, NO CHANGES
TO THE EXISTING HEADLINES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES, WITH A LOW CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
THIS AFTERNOON.
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DANGEROUS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR HYPOTHERMIA AND
FROSTBITE.
3) A SIGNIFICANT, LONG DURATION SNOWSTORM IS STILL EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD TRAVEL IMPACTS.
4) BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE TUE THROUGH THE MID AND LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA POTENTIALLY
MET OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS THU MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1:
AS OF 2:25 AM EST...CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1003 MB LOW
LOCATED EAST OF JAMES BAY, WITH A BROAD 1048 MB SFC HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HAS SET UP LOW-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION, WHICH IS HELPING DIRECT A BAND
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO FAR NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. 850 MB TEMPS PER THE LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS ARE AROUND -18C, AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WITH 850 MB WINDS OF 35-40 KT AND
INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 700 MB ON BOTH THE ALY AND BUF 00Z
SOUNDINGS, IT IS NOT SURPRISING TO SEE THE BAND EXTENDING ALL
THE WAY INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS
NORTH OF OLD FORGE AND RAQUETTE LAKE HAVE LIKELY ALREADY
RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS BAND, WITH ANOTHER 4-8
INCHES ON THE WAY AS THE BAND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-AFTERNOON, AND POSSIBLY UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THE BAND
MAY EVEN INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE,
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN, AND THERE IS SOME ADDED FORCING
FOR ASCENT FROM CVA AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION.
ACCORDINGLY, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY FOR THESE AREAS.
THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE DISRUPTED AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE BAND WILL
INITIALLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES,
EVENTUALLY BRIEFLY SETTLING SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY THIS EVENING OR
EARLY TONIGHT. THE BAND WILL THEN RETRACT CLOSER TO THE LAKE
SHORES AS INVERSION HEIGHTS QUICKLY LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT,
WINDS VEER MORE TO THE NW, AND THE COLUMN DRIES OUT.
WILL ALSO MENTION THAT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A COUPLE SNOW
SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.
FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS INCLUDE STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND INSTABILITY, ALONG WITH MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, LACK OF MOISTURE WILL BE A BIG LIMITING
FACTOR, AND IS WHY MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS LIMITED TO AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ENHANCED OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. GROUND/AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING, SO ROADS COULD BECOME
QUICKLY SNOW COVERED IN ANY SQUALLS, ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2:
THE ARCTIC FRONT TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LOW/TPV TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH FOR BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TONIGHT. 850
TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -30C IN THE ADKS TO -25C IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY TONIGHT, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO SFC TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT
AROUND 0 FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND AS LOW AS THE -20S IN THE
ADKS. AS IF THIS ISN'T BAD ENOUGH, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE SFC HIGH TO OUR WEST ALONG WITH DEEP
MIXING IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLY UP TO 30-40 MPH, STRONGEST IN THE TYPICAL NW FLOW
CHANNELING AREAS FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS
RANGING FROM AS LOW AS -10 TO -15F IN THE HUDSON VALLEY TO <-35F
IN THE ADIRONDACKS. WHILE NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING
COLD/EXTREME COLD HEADLINES, PORTIONS OF THE HELDERBERGS AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS HAVE SOME AREAS THAT ARE VERY CLOSE TO WARNING
CRITERIA (-25F FOR THOSE ZONES) AND COULD BE UPGRADED WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
WE REMAIN QUITE COLD SATURDAY, BUT THE WINDS DIMINISH AS THE
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN BELOW ZERO FOR MANY HIGH TERRAIN AREAS, AND WILL PROBABLY
STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE
I-84 CORRIDOR. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO AGAIN
FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE VALLEYS SOUTH OF I-90. HOWEVER,
WITH WEAKER WINDS, WIND CHILLS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE
ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. WHILE A FEW TARGETED COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED, AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL
FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3:
SATURDAY NIGHT, A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A MOISTURE-LADDEN SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS AZ, NM, AND TX. AS THIS PHASE
HAPPENS, A PRIMARY LOW WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARDS
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH OUR SFC HIGH CONTINUING TO RETREAT
NORTHEASTWARDS. WHILE THERE WILL BE A LOT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE
THAT HAS TO BE ERODED BEFORE SNOW REACHES THE GROUND, THIS
SHOULD STILL RESULT IN SNOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY SUNDAY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW INTENSIFIES AS A
SECONDARY/COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS NEAR ATLANTIC CITY NJ SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRACKS NEAR OR INSIDE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW LINGERS ON MONDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPS FROM THE COASTAL LOW BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS, WHICH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SNOW WILL
BE LIGHTER BY THIS TIME, BUT COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90, AS THE
UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES OVERHEAD.
THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC, WITH
AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE GULF AND THEN FROM THE
ATLANTIC AS THE COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES. THERE WILL BE STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THIS MOIST AIR IS
LIFTED OVER THE COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AS WELL AS
FROM CVA AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
INTERSECT THE DGZ, WHICH WILL BE QUITE DEEP AND LOW IN THE
ATMOSPHERE DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. SO, SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY, POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 15-20:1. THE BEST RATIOS
WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE DGZ IS DEEPER/LOWER,
BUT THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. STILL LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHERE EXACTLY ANY MESOSCALE BANDS WILL SET UP, BUT
BASED ON COLLABORATIVE CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNY ALBANY IT LOOKS
LIKE WE MAY INITIALLY SEE A LATERALLY TRANSLATING MESOSCALE
BAND WITH THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SIGNS
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY BAND DEVELOPING NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW
CENTER SUNDAY EVENING OR NIGHT. WHEREVER THESE BANDS SET UP,
SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1-2" PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHEN
ALL IS SAID AND DONE, A WIDESPREAD 10-18" OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE REGION-WIDE, WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WHERE THE
BEST/MOST PERSISTENT BANDING OCCURS. AT THIS TIME, THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY,
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH THE LOWER AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR
FAR NORTHERN ZONES.
THERE ARE STILL SOME SUBTLE POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. LATEST 00Z CMC/GFS/NAM HAVE CONTINUED WITH A SLIGHT
NORTH TREND WITH THE SFC LOW TUCKED IN CLOSER TO THE COAST,
LIKELY DUE TO A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. SHOULD
THIS TREND NORTH CONTINUE, THEN A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT THAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY COULD GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES, POTENTIALLY
CUTTING DOWN ON SNOWFALL TOTALS THERE SLIGHTLY. SINCE CAMS WILL
GENERALLY BETTER HANDLE THE CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SAT/SUN AND RESULTING
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION FROM LATENT HEAT RELEASE, WE
SHOULD GET A BETTER IDEA HOW MUCH FURTHER THE TREND NORTH/WEST
MAY CONTINUE (IF AT ALL) AS MORE HI-RES GUIDANCE BECOMES
AVAILABLE. ADDITIONALLY, WITH E/SE FLOW, SOME DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN NY, TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS. NEVERTHELESS, CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH, ESPECIALLY FOR THIS LEAD TIME, IN WARNING-LEVEL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH THE VERY DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THE STORM SHOULD
FINALLY PULL AWAY TO THE EAST OF OUR REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING, WITH SNOW ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN QUITE COLD THROUGH THIS EVENT, WINDS DON'T LOOK OVERLY
STRONG, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 4:
IN THE WAKE OF THE SIGNIFICANT STORM EARLY IN THE
WEEK, A MEAN MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BY 15 TO 20 DEGREES. A CLIPPER
LOW AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WED-WED NIGHT WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
(SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN) WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOWS 0 TO 10 BELOW OVER MOST OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. LOWS 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVER THE ADIRONDACK
PARK/SOUTHERN GREENS WITH A BREEZE 5-10 MPH MAY YIELD SOME
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OR "FEELS-LIKE" TEMPS AROUND 20- 25
DEGREES BELOW ZERO. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE MEET
FOR THE SOUTHERN DACKS AND THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS ON THU ONLY RECOVER TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
MOSTLY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-HRS ENDING 12Z/SAT FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. SOME STRATOCUMULUS THIS MORNING WITH BASES
4-6 KFT AGL FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL DUE TO THE LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE AND
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. PROB30 GROUPS WERE
USED 18Z/FRI TO 02Z/SAT FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF
CIGS/VSBYS FOR KALB/KPSF NORTHWARD. THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST
TO WEST 6-12 KT THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT,
THEN THEY WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY AT 15-20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 25-34 KT
WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 8-15 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
JANUARY 24
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
ALBANY, NY: -1 DEGREES SET IN 1882
GLENS FALLS, NY: 0 DEGREES SET IN 1907
POUGHKEEPSIE, NY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1948
RECORD COLD LOW TEMPERATURES:
ALBANY, NY: -17 DEGREES SET IN 1948
GLENS FALLS, NY: -30 DEGREES SET IN 2011
POUGHKEEPSIE, NY: -15 DEGREES SET IN 1961
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ040-041-043-047>053-058>061-063>066-083-
084.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-039-042-054-082.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR MAZ001-025.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR VTZ013>015.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...15
CLIMATE...31
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