391
FXUS61 KALY 112307
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
707 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LARGELY REMAIN ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AFTER
TOMORROW NIGHT, THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.
3) IT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY START TO NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVING
MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SUNNY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD.
THIS ALONG WITH CALMING WINDS WILL MAKE FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS DROPPING TONIGHT'S LOWS CONSIDERABLY COOLER INTO
THE UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL OCCUR IN THE TYPICAL SHELTERED
VALLEYS.
TOMORROW WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE HIGH
BEGINS TO DEPART TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BRING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UP
THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH, COINCIDING WITH A SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
CYCLONE NEAR THE NYC/LONG ISLAND AREA. ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOMORROW, INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WITH ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOWING PWAT
ANOMALIES INCREASING TO +1 TO +2 STDEV SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE REGION. DEEP WARM CLOUD
LAYERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES BUT LCL-EL
MEAN WINDS LOOK FAIRLY QUICKER AT ABOUT 20-25 KT LIMITING CONCERNS
OF REPEATED HEAVY SHOWERS OVER ONE LOCATION. CAMS HAVE THE TIMING OF
SHOWERS BEGINNING AROUND SUNSET AND OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH
MORE STEADIER SHOWERS AFTER ABOUT 10 PM EDT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF MID MORNING. RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.75" TO 1.00" FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND 0.25" TO 0.50" FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LOCALIZED HIGHER END AMOUNTS UP TO
1.50" ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN TERRAIN ENHANCED AREAS.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS A WIDESPREAD 60% TO 70% CHANCE FOR
AT LEAST 0.25" HOWEVER ONLY A 20% TO 30% CHANCE FOR RECEIVING
1.00" OR GREATER. WITH CURRENTLY DRY ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS
AND FFG BEING 2.5" TO 3.0"+, THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR HYDRO CONCERNS.
HOWEVER, PONDING OF WATER OR NUISANCE FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN
TYPICAL LOW LYING, URBAN, OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. INSTABILITY IS
ALSO LACKING FOR ANY SEVERE CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY MORNING, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT.
GUIDANCE INDICATING MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING, WITH 1000-1500
J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS EASTERN NY, WITH < 1000 J/KG IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. 0-6 KM SHEAR ALSO INCREASES TO AROUND 40-50 KT AND MODERATE
700-500MB LAPSE RATES RANGE FROM 6-7 C/KM. THE CAPE/SHEAR BALANCE
MAY RESULT IN ORGANIZED LINEAR STORMS, WITH SOME BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE. CURRENT CAMS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE TO BE AREAS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP, DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AND COULD BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
OBJECTS AND DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR BEING
THE AMOUNT OF DAYLIGHT LEFT TO HELP INITIATE STORMS WHEN ALL THESE
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER. THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL END SUN NIGHT,
AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDS IN BY MON MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY WITH A DRY START TO
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE TO SIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVING MID TO LATE
WEEK AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW COMPLETELY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS. BASED OFF MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE IMAGERY, IT SHOULD STAY CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TO OCCUR, SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY TRY TO DEVELOP FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND
TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN IFR VISIBILITY
BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z, MAINLY FOR KGFL AND KPSF. WON'T MENTION
ANY FOG FOR KALB AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR T/TD
TRENDS. ANY MIST OR FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR
CALM OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPREAD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING, BUT IT WILL REMAIN
VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KTS ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...27
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