929  
FXUS61 KALY 192014  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
307 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT A WET SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA  
THIS MORNING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE  
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL  
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT, TRIGGERING A LITTLE LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY  
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL  
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AND WESTERN  
MASSACHUSETTS. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, THEN  
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY WEATHER ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
 
 
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST  
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS EVENING, WHILE A WEAK RIDGE  
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL  
RESULT IN A LIGHT NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LOTS OF LOW-  
LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT-OVER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THERE WILL  
BE LITTLE TO NO DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. A MID-TO-  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MID-  
ATLANTIC STATES LATER TONIGHT, AND THIS WILL HELP TO ENERGIZE  
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE MID- ATANTIC LATER  
TONIGHT. NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTHWEST FRINGE  
OF THIS STORM WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN  
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NEW  
ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY TOWARD MORNING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL  
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS  
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER INCLUDING THE GREENS AND BERKSHIRES  
EARLY ON WEDENSDAY. FORECAST MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES  
EARLY WEDNESDAY INDICATE THAT THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE MAINLY  
CONFINED TO LOWER-LEVELS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE -10 C,  
INDICATING UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SNOW GROWTH AND THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. AT THIS TIME WE BELIEVE  
THAT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO  
WARRANT A HEADLINE AS IT WILL BE RATHER SPOTTY AND WILL ALSO BE  
MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW IN AREAS WHERE THE LIFT IS A LITTLE  
DEEPER AND STRONGER. BASED ON ALL OF THIS, WE HAVE GONE WITH  
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR A SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF  
FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AND ESPECIALLY  
IN THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY  
CLOUDY, COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE  
30S TO LOWER 40S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND PROBABLY SOME SUNSHINE AS  
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, BUT  
CERTAINLY WARMER THAN RECENTLY, AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER  
30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 40S OVER THE MID- HUDSON  
VALLEY.  
 
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT  
APPROACHING RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL  
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY EVENING, AND A LITTLE LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION MAY REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT, WITH A  
LIGHT WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND  
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF  
THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AS WE WILL BE  
LOCATED BRIEFLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A POTENT STORM SYSTEMS  
TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD QUEBEC. HIGHS ON  
FRIDAY COULD REACH THE 50S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH 40S  
ELSEWHERE. THE STORM MOVING TOWARD QUEBEC WILL DRAG A FAST  
MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY, PROBABLY  
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS  
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD  
IN FROM THE WEST DURING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A FEW LINGERING  
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE  
ADIRONDACKS, WHERE LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST.  
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER A PARTLY  
SUNNY SKY.  
 
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF A  
STORM SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE TWO PIECES  
OF ENERGY THAT WILL DETERMINE THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE  
FIRST IS A FAST-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROJECTED TO MOVE  
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SECOND IS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY  
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE 12 UTC MODEL SUITE GENERALLY  
FAILS TO PHASE THESE TWO SHORTWAVES TOGETHER, LEADING TO A SURFACE  
LOW TRACKING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.  
SHOULD THIS OCCUR, A PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
VIEWING AREA; HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS COULD BE WARM  
ENOUGH FOR RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION  
FOR THIS UPDATE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON  
VALLEY, CLOSER TO THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.  
 
THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE THESE TWO SHORTWAVES CAN PHASE IN FUTURE  
RUNS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A STORM TRACK FARTHER INLAND (POSSIBLY WEST  
OF THE APPALACHIANS), WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT  
PRECIPITATION-TYPE FORECAST.  
 
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF  
HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR  
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR BOTH MONDAY  
AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL  
NORMALS, WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND OVERNIGHT  
LOWS IN THE 40S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL  
BE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE  
PORTION OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
PRECIPITATION IS FINALLY LIFTING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY  
THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT LOW CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THE  
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN DRY BUT THERE WILL BE A  
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY  
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 5KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE  
TAF CYCLE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.  
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.  
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.  
BRIGHTER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR  
THURSDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RIVER LEVELS WILL BE STEADY OR  
SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING LATEST  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MSE  
NEAR TERM...MSE  
SHORT TERM...MSE  
LONG TERM...BR/BJF  
AVIATION...JLV  
FIRE WEATHER...MSE  
HYDROLOGY...THOMPSON  
 
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