895
FXUS61 KALY 082347
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
747 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT.
CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING WIND GUSTS FROM TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY, BUT SEVERE WEATHER
AND/OR FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POPPED UP LATE THIS PM/EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL-EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WITH THE
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY. SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WERE ADDED FOR A FEW HOURS FROM 7-9 PM AND JOHNSTOWN IN THE
NYS MESONET PICKED UP 0.01".
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING CONTINUE TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO
30 MPH FOR THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL AS WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE
GOOD POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN AND A BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE FOR
THURSDAY. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: AFTER THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WED P.M INTO EARLY
THU AS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY THHROUGH THE DAY ON WED,
SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY, CLOSER
TO WHERE THE BETTER FORCING WILL BE. ELSEWHERE, CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE, AS DEWPOINTS RISE
INTO THE 60S.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO THEN SPREAD SOUTH/EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU A.M. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE (PWAT
ANOMALIES RISE TO +1 TO +3 STDEV) SOME EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND
FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT, FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE < 500 J/KG
WED EVENING/NIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER, BUT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS REMAINS LOW. DUE TO STRONG FLOW ALOFT, SPC CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SW ADIRONDACKS. THIS SEEMS LIKE A WORST-CASE
SCENARIO THOUGH DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
UNFAVORABLE TIME AT NIGHT. NCAR AI NWP CONVECTIVE HAZARDS
FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY MINIMAL PROBS FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT < 5%. WITH STRENGTHENING SW WINDS ALOFT WED INTO WED
NIGHT (40-45 KT AT 850 MB), OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL
OCCUR IN FAVORED S-N ORIENTED VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN FACING
SLOPES.
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THU MORNING, WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE W-NW WITH MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
EXPECTED IN A DEVELOPING DEEPER MIXING ENVIRONMENT WITH COLD
ADVECTION COMMENCING. IT WILL STILL BE WARM DUE TO THE MIXING,
ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO DROP FROM NW TO SE LATE
IN THE DAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR 18Z/WED
FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS 3.5-5 KFT AGL
WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER EASTERN NY
AND NEW ENGLAND. KPOU MAY HAVE A FEW-SCT LOWER CLOUDS WITH
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK AS A WARM
FRONT TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CAUSING CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER WITH
SHOWERS/PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAIN MAINLY IMPACTING KALB-KPSF
NORTHWARD TO KGFL AFTER 18-20Z/WED. WE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO
BRING THE RAIN IN, AND THEN SOME PREVAILING GROUPS WITH MVFR
VSBYS AND POTENTIALLY CIGS. FURTHER SOUTH, A PROB30 WAS USED FOR
KPOU FOR A BRIEF SHOWER 20Z-23Z/WED.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KT WITH BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION TO CALM PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS INCREASE FROM
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 8-15 KT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KT AT KALB/KPSF. LLWS WAS ADDED TO
KGFL/KPSF AFTER 21Z/WED, AS THE SFC WINDS DECREASE TO LESS THAN
10 KT AND THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS ARE 35-40 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07/05/15
AVIATION...15
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