575
FXUS61 KALY 080634
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE TODAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM LAST NIGHT
DEPARTS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION MAY
START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF I-90. COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL THEN TAKE HOLD,
WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX IS LIKELY ACROSS SOME
AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN.
DISCUSSION:
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST. MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE LOCATED SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
THESE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION. THEREAFTER, A
SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH SOME
BREAKS OF SUN. A WESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
BUT GUSTS WILL ONLY REACH 20-25 MPH, MAINLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE 40S AND 50S. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH SUN, PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY INTO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY, CT COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S.
TONIGHT WILL START OUT DRY BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME
CLEARING TO START THE NIGHT AND, WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S. THEREAFTER, CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TRAPPING THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR AS AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE, MID- LEVEL WARM FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
BRINGS A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. PENDING SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
COULD SET UP FOR SOME LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF I-90, ESPECIALLY
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION WOULD JUST BE
IN THE FORM OF RAIN. ANY WINTRY MIX ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LOW WITH
1-2 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
WITH AT MOST A LIGHT COATING IN OTHER LOCATIONS. FREEZING RAIN
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST AND
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ONLY.
BY SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE WITH WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ENDING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE
WEST OF OUR AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AND
INTO QUEBEC. IN ADDITION, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO
DEVELOP NEAR AND JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM BOTH
SYSTEMS MAY REMAIN BOTH EAST AND WEST OF OUR AREA, WE STILL
EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
THERE CAN BE SOME DRIER PERIODS MIXED IN. WE WILL MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND THAT MAY CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF STEADIER RAINFALL. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID-50S.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL GRADUALLY DEPART THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND WESTERLY FLOW
RESUMES, LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
ORGANIZE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S AND 40S WITH SOME LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY MON NIGHT THROUGH THU.
DISCUSSION:
AN ANOMALOUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. H500 HEIGHTS WILL RUN -2 TO -4
STDEVS BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE EXTENDED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE -1
TO -2 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL MON NIGHT INTO VETERANS DAY, AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE INDICATES 24-HR PROBABILITIES >4" ARE IN
THE 25-50% RANGE OVER THE WESTERN DACKS OF NORTHERN HERKIMER
AND WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES BY 12Z WED. LAKE EFFECT WOULD
BEGIN TO DEVELOP MON NIGHT AND PICK UP ON VETERANS DAY AND START
TO WEAKEN OR GET DISRUPTED WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MID
WEEK. EXPECT CHILLY TEMPS MON NIGHT IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS
IN THE ADIRONDACK PARK. A WINTRY AND BRISK DAY IS EXPECTED ON
VETERANS DAY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS AND MID 20S TO MID
30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TUE NIGHT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
COLD AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/CLIPPER IMPACTS THE
FORECAST AREA WED-THU. SOME WARM ADVECTION OCCURS DURING THE DAY
WED FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. AS THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER
NORTHERN NY AND QUEBEC WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING THE PCPN
TRANSITIONS TO LAKE EFFECT AND WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
SOME LIGHT TO MODEST SNOW ACCUMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN
DACKS, WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS. MAX TEMPS WILL
STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL ON WED WITH MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 30S TO AROUND 40F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THU, BUT THE WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
MAY LIMIT ACCUMS DURING THE DAY, EXCEPT ABOVE 2000 FT IN THE
WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN GREENS. TEMPS MAYBE COMPARABLE TO WED
WITH BRISK CONDITIONS, AS THE DOWNSTREAM WAVE REDEVELOPS SOME
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. SOME RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO OHIO VALLEY THU NIGHT INTO FRI DIMINISHING THE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THRU 06Z SUN...AN OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO QUEBEC IS BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB. A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KGFL PRIOR TO
10Z/SAT. IN THE SHOWERS, SOME REDUCTIONS TO MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR KPOU/KPSF AND TEMPO GROUPS WERE USED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT
TAF SITES IN THE 2-3 KFT AGL RANGE FOR ALL THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z-13Z/SAT. EXPECT CIGS TO RISE BACK TO LOW VFR LEVELS IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS INTO THE MID PM. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE SOUTH AND WEST OF KALB AFTER 00Z/SUN.
LLWS WAS KEPT IN THE KPOU/KGFL TAF SITES UNTIL ABOUT 09Z/SAT,
AS THE THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS OF 35-45 KT DECREASE WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVING BY, AS THE SFC WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL RANGE FROM 5-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS STILL
20-25 KT AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
AFTER DAYBREAK 8-13 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT KALB.
THE WINDS WILL BECOME 5-10 KT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST IN THE
LATE PM AND BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3 KT OR LESS EARLY
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
VETERANS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...07/33
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
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