103
FXUS61 KALY 040651
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
251 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST, THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
TACONICS, AS WELL AS BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MA AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN NW CT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY ON TUESDAY. THURSDAY CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD WILL OCCUR AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY REACHING 25-35 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE FOR VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST
AND 40 TO 55 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. PER COORDINATION ON SUNDAY, A
NEW SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE
SPREAD HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS,
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS AND FOR BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN MA AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN CT.
IT WILL TURN EVEN WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S WITH A CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE.
HOWEVER, DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S
LEADING TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY LOWERING INTO THE 40 TO
55 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS (EXCEPT SOME SPOTTY 35 PERCENT
VALUES IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY). WILL COORDINATE WHETHER OR NOT
ANY SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOLLOWING A MOSTLY DRY DAY TODAY, UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO SOME
AREAS. A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS AS IT TURNS QUITE WARM. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS
NEW YORK STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE LIMITED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAY BE MORE LIMITED TO WITHIN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT, WHICH WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.
WITHIN THIS REGION, INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
(CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG) THOUGH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. FOR ANY TALLER CORES THAT CAN
DEVELOP, STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH AFTER DARK AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD
BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BRING A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IT WILL
BE A COOLER DAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS (COMBINING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY) ARE
BETWEEN 1 AND 1.50 INCHES FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY TO
0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES FROM ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON TUESDAY, SOME HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN OCCUR. OVERALL, THIS RAINFALL SHOULD NOT LEAD TO
ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES BUT KEEP ANY FUTURE FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES AT BAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER OUR REGION ON
THURSDAY, QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
OVERALL STORM TRACK TO BE DISPLACED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST AND A TREND TOWARD DRIER WEATHER ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ANY PASSING SHORTWAVES COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS LATER
THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ALSO RETURN TO
BELOW NORMAL VALUES DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE 6-9 KFT
AGL RANGE NORTH OF KPOU TO BEGIN THE TAF CYCLE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONT. KPOU MAY HAVE A FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE NEAR KGFL/KALB AND WE INCLUDED A
PROB30 FOR KGFL FOR 6SM AND CIGS AROUND 4 KFT. THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DECREASE BETWEEN 12Z-15Z/MON WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING TONIGHT.
LLWS WAS INCLUDED AT ALL THE TAF SITES UNTIL 12Z-14Z/MON, AS
THE SFC WINDS BECOME VARIABLE AT 5 KT TO CALM THIS MORNING AND
THE 2 KFT WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40 KT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET.
THE WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT
10-16 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 20-30 KT. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE
AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS DECREASE TOWARDS 00Z/TUE AT 10 KT OR
LESS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...15
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