659
FXUS61 KALY 250230
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST, LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TOMORROW GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCOMING SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS. ALSO, CHANGED SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE TO REFLECT
COVERAGE (E.G "ISOLATED", "SCATTERED", ETC) INSTEAD OF
PROBABILITY (E.G "SLIGHT CHANCE", "CHANCE", ETC) FOR FRIDAY
GIVEN DIURNAL NATURE TO SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH
A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-90 ON FRIDAY.
2) INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUING
INTO THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END
OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A BEAUTIFUL JUNE DAY TODAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO TOMORROW AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW AND MID-LEVEL WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT LIFTS EASTWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL NY, RESULTING IN INCREASING WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION. WHILE
THERE IN GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FROM NORTH I-90
NORTHWARD, THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE INCOMING WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH BY 18 - 21 UTC TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES
CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS UNTIL CLOSER TO 00 UTC INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES. WE CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON ARRIVAL TIME FOR INITIAL SHOWERS WITH CHANCE
POPS SPREADING EASTWARD BUT DELAY LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS
UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING WHEN THE TROUGH FROM GREAT LAKES FINALLY
SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE DEW POINTS TREND UPWARDS INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING,
WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY. MUCAPE VALUES STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 500
J/KG WITH EVEN THIS MEAGER INSTABILITY SPILLING INTO AREAS
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS THE STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES. DESPITE WEAK
INSTABILITY, 0-3KM SHEAR IS NOTEWORTHY RANGING 30 TO 40KTS.
WHILE THIS WOULD HELP RESULT IN MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION, THE
OVERALL MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY STIFLE UPDRAFTS AND THUS
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. SPC MAINTAINS JUST
GENERAL THUNDER FOR EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, MATCHING
OUR THINKING. EVEN WITH LIMITED, IF ANY, STORMS, EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT THURS P.M INTO THURS NIGHT AS PWATS REACH
NEAR 1 TO 1.5". THERE IS A 40 TO 70% CHANCE THAT THE 24-HR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FROM 12
UTC THURS TO 12 UTC FRI EXCEEDS 0.50 INCHES. THERE IS ONLY A 15
TO 30% CHANCE FOR OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN INDICATING FLOODING ISSUES
ARE UNLIKELY.
THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
COLD POOL SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES. THIS
COMBINED WITH BREAKS OF SUN AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
AND 60S WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE MORE APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY
COMPARED TO THURSDAY. STILL ONLY LOOKING AT SURFACE BASED CAPE
VALUES NEAR AND ABOVE 1000 J/KG WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES NEAR
AND NORTH OF I-90 CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP
BY LATE MORNING AS WE REACH OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH
THE ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MOST SHOWERS/STORMS
COVERAGE LOOKS FOCUSED NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 WHERE WE SHOW
CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
INCLUDING THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN GREENS AND
NORTHERN TACONICS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONGER STORM GIVEN STEEPER LAPSE RATES, SLIGHTLY HIGHER
INSTABILITY AND DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR 45-50KTS. SPC MAINTAINS
JUST GENERAL THUNDER FOR OUR AREA ON FRIDAY SO NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN AMPLIFIED ~595DM RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO GENERATE A RATHER IMPRESSIVE HEAT DOME
FOR THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST. WE REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE
RIDGE WITH BROAD TROUGHING PARKED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER, THE RIDGE FINALLY STARTS TO SLIDE EASTWARD BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING THE HEAT DOME TO SLIDE INTO
THE NORTHEAST. 850HPA ISOTHERMS WITHIN THE HEAT DOME RANGE 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE NAEFS WITH THE LATEST
NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING A 50 TO 65% CHANCES FOR
VALLEY AREAS TO REACH OR EXCEED 90 DEGREES FOR THE MIDDLE TO END
OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE VERY WARM AIR MASS FINALLY STARTS TO SPILL
EASTWARD. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW
HOT THE AIR MASS WILL BE AS THE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MAY BE STUBBORN TO EXIT AND MAY ERODE THE INCOMING
HEAT. IN FACT, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE THAT MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FOR
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK SUPPORT A "RIDGE ROLLER" PATTERN
AND LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS NEAR OR OVER 90 DEGREES FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK COMBINED WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY,
THE CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHTS AREAS FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST IN A "SLIGHT RISK" (20-40%
CHANCE) FOR EXTREME HEAT FROM JULY 2 TO JULY 5. THIS INCLUDES
THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY PERIOD WHERE THERE ARE MANY OUTDOOR EVENTS
SCHEDULE SO IT IS IMPORTANT TO AVOID UNNECESSARY STRENUOUS
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, DRINK WATER EVEN IF YOU ARE NOT THIRSTY, AND
HAVE A WAY TO STAY COOL. THE SLIGHT RISK FOR EXTREME HEAT IS
LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR THE ANTECEDENT TROUGH TO ERODE THE HEAT DOME
AND LIMIT THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE HEAT. THAT'S ALSO WHY
CURRENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR HEAT STANDS ONLY AT MEDIUM.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z/FRI. THE ONLY CAVEAT COULD BE A BIT OF PATCHY GROUND FOG
DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING AT KGFL AND KPSF, HOWEVER OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS QUITE LOW DUE TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. ON
THURSDAY, AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING THICKENING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS, WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON (MAINLY AFTER 20Z/THU) AT KGFL, KALB AND KPSF. BRIEF
MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR AT THESE LOCATIONS WITHIN ANY SHOWERS.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT, THEN TREND INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY
LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...RA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...24/05
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