552
FXUS61 KALY 121908
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
308 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED ACROSS MOST OF THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS AS THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS, LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND THE ARRIVAL OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX (FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES)
BELOW 95 DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH (#322) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GREENE,
COLUMBIA, ULSTER, DUTCHESS, BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES
UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS VALLEY AREAS, FROM THE HUDSON AND
POINTS EAST INCREASING THE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES. IN
ADDITION, A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90.
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
3) COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER INCREASE FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL
DISTURBANCE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, HEAT
INDEX VALUES (FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES) ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH AT LEAST THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
EXTRA CLOUDS, LOWER TEMPERATURES AND PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS,
THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS WILL FALL SHORT OF HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA (95 DEGREES OR HIGHER), SO THE ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED THERE.
THE FRONT AND PREFRONTAL DISTURBANCE ARE ALSO DEVELOPING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A WINDOW FOR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY
HAVING THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR THIS THREAT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. WHILE CAPE
VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG, BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN LESS
THAN 30 KT. MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE
BETWEEN 5.5 AND 6.0C/KM. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE TALL, SKINNY
CAPE PROFILE. SHOULD ANY STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP, HOWEVER,
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GREENE, COLUMBIA,
BERKSHIRE, ULSTER, DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES UNTIL 9 PM
THIS EVENING. WE REMAIN OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PER THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S COLD FRONT, DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO START THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. THE NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT MAY ALSO
ARRIVE MORE AT NIGHT WHICH WOULD REDUCE THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. IT WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER ON SUNDAY BUT WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S, WE SHOULD REMAIN SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY, COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. UNSETTLED
WEATHER MAY RETURN BY THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH MOST
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOWING A RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BRINGS THE THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF THESE STORMS DO DEVELOP, CIGS AND
VIS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OR CLOSE TO IFR. CONDITIONS WILL
CLEAR OUT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z-01Z TONIGHT AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT, RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS KGFL,
WHICH COULD SEE PERIODS OF PATCHY MIST/FOG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, REFLECTED BY THE TEMPO GROUP.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS GENERALLY REACHING UP TO 15-20 KTS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT PASSES OVER TERMINALS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD CAUSE STRONGER AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS/GUSTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE AND SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME LINGERING GUSTS
EXPECTED AT KALB. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE RETURN OF GUSTS EXPECTED AT KPSF AND
KALB AROUND 12Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES(YEAR SET):
FRIDAY JUNE 12:
ALBANY: 95(2017)
GLENS FALLS: 92(2017)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 95(1933)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ041-043-
048>053-059>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ025.
VT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...23
CLIMATE...07
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