461  
FXUS61 KALY 231901  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
301 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND  
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, THROUGH TOMORROW. THEN, HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN DRIER AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/  
 
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW  
CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH THE BASE OF  
THE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES. WITH  
THE COLD POOL ALOFT FEATURING 500HPA ISOTHERMS -25C TO -28C (OR  
2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL PER THE NAEFS) AND LAKE  
ONTARIO WATER TEMPERATURES +12C TO +14C, THE DELTA-T AND STEEP  
LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS  
EXTENDING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE  
CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN MI  
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT, THE FETCH  
HAS DIRECTED MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND MORE ORGANIZED RAIN  
SHOWERS OFF LAKE ERIE WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AS  
THEY EXTEND INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY, SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS,  
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHERN CATSKILLS. SKIES HAVE REMAINED  
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN  
INVERSION SEEN ON THE 12 UTC ALY SOUNDING. AS WE LOSE DAYTIME  
HEATING, LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. POPS  
THEREFORE TREND DOWNWARDS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCES  
LIMITED TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT. NYS  
MESONET AND ASOS DATA SHOWS TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT REMAINED  
ELEVATED IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW  
ENGLAND THANKS TO CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVERAGE MAINLY  
NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90. WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED  
TONIGHT, WE TRENDED TEMPERATURES WARMER COMPARED TO THE NBM TO  
SHOW OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.  
AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 SHOULD TURN MOSTLY CLEAR AS LAKE MOISTURE  
STAYS NORTH.  
 
HEADING INTO FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM MI TRACKS  
OVER LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHEAST, ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO  
THE WEST. THIS WILL DIRECT A MOISTURE FETCH OFF LAKE ONTARIO  
WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MORE ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT  
BAND DEVELOPS AND EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS  
TOMORROW MORNING. THE BAND THEN SHIFTS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY  
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH RESULTING IN  
A MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN  
SHOWERS LOOK TO SPILL DOWNSTREAM INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT,  
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN VT WITH WESTERLY FLOW  
SUPPORTING WEAK UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND  
NORTHERN TACONICS. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE  
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT  
OVERHEAD MAINTAINING SLIGHTLY BREEZY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS  
(GUSTS UP TO 20MPH) AND A COOL AIR ADVECTION REGIME. BETWEEN  
LAKE MOISTURE AND CONTINUED STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE  
SHORTWAVE, EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ALL OF  
THESE FACTORS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES TOMORROW VERY FITTING FOR  
MID TO LATE OCTOBER IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  
 
WEAK SUBSIDENCE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS PARTIAL IF NOT  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN ADKS AND SOUTHERN  
GREENS) AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES THEREFORE WILL  
LIKELY BECOME COOLER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS AND  
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS GREATER THAN 75% CHANCE FOR  
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP BELOW 35 DEGREES FOR MOST OF EASTERN NY  
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12 UTC SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE  
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS NORTHWARD BUT BROAD TROUGHING  
CONTINUES OVERHEAD AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN  
FLOW CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN  
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH  
SEASONABLE FALL TEMPERATURES. WE STAY COOL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT  
BUT LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS LOOK TO KEEP VALLEY AREAS A BIT MILDER  
COMPARED TO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A 10-25% CHANCE FOR  
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW 32F BY 12 UTC SUNDAY.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
THE NEXT POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO NORTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND FOR SUNDAY AND WHILE ITS COOL POOL LOOKS TO SUPPORT  
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS, THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES LOOK  
DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH SO POPS WERE KEPT TO A MINIMUM AND  
LIMITED TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE IN THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE, SEASONABLY COOL  
FALL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. WHILE THIS POTENT SHORTWAVE SHIFTS  
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE ENSEMBLE  
CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT DEPENDING ON HOW AMPLIFIED  
THIS SHORTWAVE BECOMES AND IF IT SHOULD RETROGRADE INLAND, IT  
COULD BE AN IMPORTANT FEATURE THAT PHASES WITH ADDITIONAL  
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID AND  
END OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING  
THAT A LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONE FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC BUILDS  
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,  
KEEPING OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER QUIET AND SEASONABLE.  
 
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW TWO SCENARIOS UNFOLDING FOR  
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST SCENARIO WHICH ABOUT 80% OF THE  
MEMBERS SUPPORT SUGGESTS A DEEP SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES  
INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE CONUS AND DEPENDING  
ON IF IT INTERACTS/PHASES WITH THE CANADIAN MARITIME SHORTWAVE,  
COULD RESULT IN A COASTAL DISTURBANCE FOR LATE NEXT  
WEEK/WEEKEND. THE CLUSTERS THAT FAVOR THIS PATH DO NOT SHOW  
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE 50% PERCENTILE  
GUIDANCE UNDER 1 INCH EXCEPT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE AMOUNTS  
NEAR 1 INCH. ON THE OTHER HAND, SHOULD SCENARIO TWO OCCUR,  
EXPECTING A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION AS ZONAL FLOW KEEPS THE PATTERN  
MUCH QUIETER.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
THROUGH 18Z/FRI...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING  
SOME LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS TO THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF  
PERIOD. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY VFR DURING THIS TIME, THOUGH MOIST,  
UPSLOPE FLOW COULD DEVELOP MVFR CIGS AT KPSF LATER TONIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLATED LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS COULD ALSO PASS NEAR OR  
OVER KALB/KGFL/KPSF AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BRIEF  
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR DUE TO CIGS AND/OR VSBYS COULD OCCUR IN ANY  
SHOWER. WIND WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THOUGH THE PERIOD  
AT 10-15 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN 4-8 KT TONIGHT THROUGH  
FRIDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 
 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...31  
SHORT TERM...31  
LONG TERM...31  
AVIATION...33  
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