029
FXUS61 KALY 131131
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE W. ADIRONDACKS. OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND -5F TO -14F IN
THE COLDEST SPOTS DUE TO CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND A DEEP
SNOWPACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
2) SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS WELL SOUTH/EAST OF OUR AREA
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
3) MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT, BRINGING MAINLY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. NOW IN THE
HI-RES MODEL WINDOW, IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NY, BUT ALSO INTO THE CATSKILLS/MID
HUDSON VALLEY. SO POPS ARE HIGHEST IN THESE AREAS (30-50%), WITH
GENERALLY 20-30% ELSEWHERE. SNOW SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN A
QUICK DUSTING TO HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION, WHICH WOULD HAVE
LIMITED IMPACTS ESPECIALLY GIVEN OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING TIMING
ON A WEEKEND. A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO SAT FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY, SO WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING
EASTWARD OFF THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY
MON REMAINING TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST FOR ANY IMPACTS IN OUR AREA.
NBM POPS HAVE EVEN LOWERED TO JUST 15-20% SOUTH OF ALBANY.
ALMOST ALL DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE AND AI GUIDANCE INDICATING A
MISS FOR OUR AREA. THE PROBABILISTIC WINTER STORM SEVERITY
INDEX(P-WSSI) HAS EVEN LOWERED TO LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE FOR
MINOR IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN INDICATING A WEST-EAST ORIENTED
BAROCLINIC ZONE(FRONT) AND MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TUE-THU,
WARMING LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY TEMPERED SINCE SIGNIFICANT WARMUPS
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN. SO WITH EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WED-THU, THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX AND/OR SOME RAIN, WITH THE
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW/MIXED PRECIP IN NORTHERN AND HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. SINCE THIS IS STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT, CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN PRECIP TYPES AND AMOUNTS. SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT COULD HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON BOTH, AS
WELL AS THE TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE FRONT. BOTTOM LINE IS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY TOWARDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE TEMPERED WARMING(HIGHS 30S-40S, LOWS 20S-30S) AND
THICK SNOW/ICE COVER, SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP ON RIVERS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A THAW/FREEZE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL HELP
SLOW ICE BREAKUP. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE REGION AS A RESULT OF NORTHEAST-EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD, THOUGH AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE, KPSF STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP AN MVFR CEILING FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE DECREASED A LITTLE IN THIS ELEMENT OF
THE FORECAST, SO INSTEAD OF A PREVAILING, WE PUT THESE
CONDITIONS INTO A TEMPO GROUP. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION. CEILINGS, ONCE DEVELOPED, WILL REMAIN
WELL WITHIN VFR THRESHOLDS TO START, BUT WILL LIKELY DIP AT
LEAST INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS SNOW SHOWERS RESULTING FROM THE
DISTURBANCE BEGIN TO DEVELOP. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF SNOW SHOWERS, SO ADDED PROB30
GROUPS WITH IFR VISIBILITIES DURING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION AT ALL TERMINALS. THIS GENERALLY
SPANS THE 05-10Z TIMEFRAME FOR NOW, BUT ADDITIONAL DETAILS WILL
BE PROVIDED IN FUTURE ITERATIONS. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL
BE ON THE VARIABLE SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE REGION. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL, AS A RESULT, BE
DECREASED IN MAGNITUDE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND GENERALLY FALL
UNDER 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...12
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