355
FXUS61 KALY 071051
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
651 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES WAS
CANCELED.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A CORRIDOR OF RAIN THAT WILL
LIKELY BECOME FOCUSED AROUND I-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL
DISTRICT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN RESULT IN POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF SHOWERS CENTERED AROUND THE I-90 CORRIDOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MODERATE RAIN AT
TIMES. THIS CAN RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
2) TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A DEW POINT
BOUNDARY STALLED AROUND THE I-90 CORRIDOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE BOUNDARY.
THIS ALSO ALLOWED LIGHT SHOWERS TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT BUT LATEST NYS MESONET AND
ASOS OBSERVATIONS SHOW RAINFALL RATES HAVE LIGHT AND NOT
LEADING TO ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
PWATS REMAINING OVER 1.50" AND FREEZING LEVELS OVER 12KFT, HI
RES GUIDANCE SHOWS RAIN BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND TURNING
STEADY/MODERATE IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THE MEAN CLOUD LAYER WIND
EVEN BECOMES ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE STALLED EAST TO WEST
BOUNDARY, SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING RAIN; HOWEVER,
INSTABILITY IS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL
RATES. REGARDLESS, LATEST HREF QPF PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN
(PMM) SHOWS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 0.50 TO 1.75 INCHES OF RAIN
CENTERED FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA BETWEEN THE 6-HRLY WINDOWS
FROM 06 - 12 UTC AND 12 - 18 UTC TODAY. THERE IS EVEN A 10 TO
30% CHANCE (EVEN LOCALIZED 50% CHANCE) FOR 1" OF QPF IN THE
3-HRLY PMM FROM 06 - 15 UTC TODAY. WE THEREFORE COLLABORATED
WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS TO RAISE QPF AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING TO SHOW A REGION OF 0.50 TO 1.75" IN THESE
AREAS WITH QPF AMOUNTS DECREASING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH
(1.5 TO 2" IN 1 HOUR AND 2 TO 2.50" IN 3 HOUR) SO NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES BUT THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN TYPICAL FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
MOTORISTS SHOULD ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATION FOR
TODAY'S MORNING COMMUTE AS WELL GIVEN THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN BY 15 - 18 UTC AS THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TOMORROW GIVING US PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE TRENDING UPWARDS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF SHORE ALLOWING
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED THURSDAY AS THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS EXCEED 90. SUCH WARM TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PRESENT A LOW
CHANCE FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (HEAT INDEX VALUES 95F OR
HIGHER) IN THIS AREAS. WHILE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BE
SIMILAR INTO FRIDAY, INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE FROM AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO LOWER CHANCES FOR HITTING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN VALLEY AREAS. OTHERWISE, A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND A FEW SHORTWAVES FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC APPROACH. FRIDAY FEATURES A HIGHER CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A STRONGER TROUGH AND
SFC COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE AT ALB, PSF AND GFL THIS MORNING AS A
BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED AROUND THE I-90 CORRIDOR. VIS LIKELY
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGH 15 - 18 UTC AT ALB AND PSF
WHERE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE STEADIEST. LIGHTER RAIN AT GFL AND
POU SHOULD SUPPORT VFR VIS BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE
DURING ANY STEADIER PERIODS. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO
PERSIST AT ALB, PSF, AND POU WITH MAINLY VFR VIS AT GFL.
VIS LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18 - 19 UTC AT ALL TERMINALS AS
RAIN EXITS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH PSF THE LAST TO SEE
THE RAIN END. CEILINGS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE FROM MVFR BACK TO VFR
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW TO MEDIUM IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06 UTC GIVEN
DAYTIME RAIN AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE AT ALB AND PSF WHERE THE MOST RAIN SHOULD OCCUR.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-9KTS THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS OF 15-20 KT COULD OCCUR AT KPSF TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN LIGHT AFTER 00 UTC.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...31
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