640
FXUS61 KALY 191011
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
611 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL (LEVEL
1 OF 5) TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRIER, COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES, SUNNY SKIES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IN STORE FOR
MONDAY.
2) THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR, WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY
EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, DRIER NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY. IT WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH DRY ADVECTION/GOOD MIXING, AS
NW OF 10-15 MPH WILL GUST 20-25 THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO SCOUR OUT
RESULTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO MON, PROVIDING LIGHTER
WINDS, CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SE
CANADA WILL REINFORCE THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TUE-WED. WHILE A
SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS TUE MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH/WEST, THE BULK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL ARRIVE WITH THE FIRST POTENT SHORT WAVE
TUE P.M. INTO TUE NIGHT. THERE IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS WILL THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE BE EARLY ENOUGH TO PROMOTE
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE EASTWARD ADVANCING WARM SECTOR. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION
(0- 6 KM SHEAR OF 35-45 KT), HOWEVER IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BUOYANCY TO BALANCE THE SHEAR. AT THIS
TIME, SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR AREAS SOUTH/WEST
OF ALBANY, WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND
OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING. ALSO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION WOULD BE FOR AREAS IN THE SLIGHT RISK.
PWAT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +1 TO +2 STDEV
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITHIN
ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTIONS
EXPECTED, ANY ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS WOULD BE FOR AREAS
THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. AT THE SURFACE, A
SLOW-MOVING FRONT AND WEAK WAVE ALONG THE FRONT, LOOKS TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WED. SO WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS
FROM THE NBM FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND SOME T-STORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL INCREASE TUE INTO WED. DRY, BUT CONTINUED COOL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THU/FRI WITH MORE SUNSHINE.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24
HOUR TAF PERIOD, AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH/WEST.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
OF 20-25 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07
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