088  
FXUS61 KALY 201410  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
910 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FOR THE BERKSHIRES,  
SOUTHERN GREENS, AND PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH  
THIS MORNING. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY  
MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN  
ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
LOTS OF SUN ACROSS THE REGION BUT SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS INTO  
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. JUST SOME  
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THERE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY  
SHOULD JUST REACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
BASED ON AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO  
REACH 20 DEGREES, AND MAY JUST TOUCH 20 DEGREES IN PARTS OF THE  
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. OTHERWISE, TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST  
AREAS WITH SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. JUST  
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:  
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN OTHERWISE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE  
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LAKE ONTARIO IS FAVORED BY LATEST FORECAST  
MODELS TO BRING CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE  
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST  
SNOWFALL TO FALL IN NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE A WINTER  
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW  
NIGHT.  
 
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS  
AND SINGLE DIGITS. LATEST NYS MESONET DATA SHOWS LOCATIONS IN  
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ALREADY BELOW ZERO AND IN THE NEGATIVES.  
FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING TEMPERATURES VERY WELL FOR  
HIGHS TODAY DUE TO THE RECENT SNOW PACK AND ARCTIC COLD AIR MASS  
OVERHEAD, SO MADE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS TODAY TO  
ACCOUNT FOR BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE  
DIGITS TO TEENS. THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY COULD REACH IN INTO THE  
LOW 20S, BUT THIS MAY NEED ADJUSTMENTS LATER THIS MORNING IF  
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH BACK INTO THE 20S. COLD WEATHER  
ADVISORIES FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, NORTHERN  
BERKSHIRES, AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY HAVE BEEN ISSUED  
FOR WIND CHILL, FEELS-LIKE, TEMPERATURES -15 TO -25 DEGREES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY (50%)  
 
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS  
WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT  
BEFORE COMING TO AN END WHEN UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO SUPPORT  
AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY.  
 
FOR TEMPERATURES, THE ARCTIC COLD AIR CONTINUES WITH WINTER  
WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUING FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND  
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE  
EXPANDED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT FEEL EVEN COLDER ON  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE BITTERLY COLD WITH  
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND IN THE  
TEENS FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TOMORROW  
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH BUT DECREASE TUESDAY EVENING. FORECAST  
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH DUE SUPPORT OF HIGH PROBABILITIES BEING  
GREATER THAN 95 PERCENT BY LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS 4.2  
DATA FOR ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND  
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING BELOW 25 DEGREES AND LOW  
TEMPERATURES BEING BELOW 5 DEGREES. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY CONTINUE  
TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS WITH WIND CHILL, FEELS-LIKE,  
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING (ALBEIT STILL BELOW-NORMAL)  
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF  
THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS AT 12Z THURSDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING  
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO  
THE EAST. WE REMAIN UNDER THE COLD AIRMASS ALOFT, SO WHILE  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES F WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY,  
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE  
COULD BE A FEW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
WESTERN ADKS WITH COLD ADVECTION OVER THE GREAT LAKES, BUT MOST OF  
THE REST OF THE REGION REMAINS DRY.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CURRENT DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF OUR  
REGION, RESULTING IN A STORM DEVELOPING WELL OFFSHORE. WITH  
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET OVER OUR  
REGION, SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM  
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR  
MEASURABLE SNOW WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ARE LESS THAN 5%, EXCEPT  
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ROUTE 202 IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE  
PROBS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT 5-10%. HOWEVER, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
OVER THE SOUTHEAST, W/SW WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ADKS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. LOWS WILL  
BE QUITE CHILLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS  
(LOCALLY TO AROUND 0 IN THE ADKS) WITH HIGHS FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE  
20S.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR  
THIS LEAD TIME THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN  
DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, ASIDE FROM THE TYPICAL  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADKS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL  
ONCE AGAIN FEATURE BELOW-NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WITH MOST AREAS IN  
THE SINGLE DIGITS. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY, WITH  
HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FOR AM UPPER  
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW  
SHOWERS TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY  
NIGHT TIMEFRAME, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. LOWS  
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 10S, WITH  
HIGHS SUNDAY RANGING FROM 20S (TERRAIN) TO 30S (VALLEYS).  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...ALB/GFL/POU HAVE ALL SEEN IMPROVEMENT BACK TO  
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS, WHILE CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN MVFR AT PSF WITH  
LINGERING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECTING CONDITIONS AT  
PSF TO IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SNOW ENDING WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  
THEN, ALL SITES SHOULD SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND  
TONIGHT WITH SCT TO BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS WILL BE FROM  
THE NW AT 5-10 KT THROUGH MID-MORNING, AT WHICH POINT WINDS VEER TO  
THE W/NW AT 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT. GUSTS DIMINISH AND  
WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING FOR A  
FEW HOURS AROUND 00Z, BUT THEN WINDS INCREASE BACK TO 5-8 KT FROM  
THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 01-05Z LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  
NIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST  
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ038-047-051-054-058-063-082.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST  
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032.  
MA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST  
WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...WEBB  
NEAR TERM...NAS/WEBB  
SHORT TERM...WEBB  
LONG TERM...MAIN  
AVIATION...MAIN  
 
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