978  
FXUS61 KOKX 030554 CCA  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
154 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THIS AFTERNOON INTO  
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH  
FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN OFFSHORE FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A  
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,  
PASSING SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY OR EVEN STALLING IN CLOSE  
PROXIMITY.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
A FEW POCKETS OF PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH  
DAYBREAK UNTIL MID-MORNING IN SOME OUTLYING AREAS.  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL POLAR LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN QUEBEC  
TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED 1 STD DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
PASSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING WITH A CANADIAN COLD  
FRONT.  
 
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT TODAY. MAINLY SUNNY  
SKIES ARE EXPECTED OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR  
FAR EASTERN LOCALES FROM A STALLED FRONT THAT WASHES OUT EAST OF THE  
AREA OVER THE OCEAN EARLY TODAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IN A SUNNY,  
WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO  
THE UPPER-80S FOR MOST WITH SOME SPOTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 90 THIS  
AFTERNOON IN NE NJ AND THE NYC METRO AREA.  
 
A WARM, SUNNY, WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY  
WILL LEAVE US WELL SET FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PASS THE AREA  
MID-AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, PROVIDING LIFT FOR SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING ALOFT.  
PWATS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE SUITABLE RAIN TO DEVELOP.  
 
00Z CAMS ARE SHOWING AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SBCAPE VALUES  
AND ACCEPTABLE MLCAPE VALUES FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE  
PASSING COLD FRONT. WITH 35-50 KTS OF MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR,  
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP, COULD SEE SCATTERED INSTANCES OF  
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE FORM OF SQUALL LINES OR BOWING  
SEGMENTS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK POTENT.  
DESPITE THE CAP BREAKING JUST BEFORE MIDDAY, THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE  
RATES LOOK TOO LOW FOR MOST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THEY DO EVENTUALLY CLIMB TO MARGINAL  
VALUES (6.5-6.9 C/KM) WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT HELPING WITH STORM  
INITIATION IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THIS,  
MOST STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT RATHER THAN  
WELL AHEAD OF IT.  
 
00Z CAMS HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TIMED TO START AROUND MIDDAY  
TO OUR WEST, ENTERING OUR AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT 2-4 PM FOR NW  
INTERIOR LOCALES THEN FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEST-TO-  
EAST, EXITING EAST BY 7-9 PM. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT  
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE FOR DAMAGING  
WINDS, BUT ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.  
N&W OF NYC THERE MAY BE SCATTERED INSTANCES OF STRONG TO  
DAMAGING WINDS, BUT AS THE LINE OF STORMS TRACK EAST WITH THE  
COLD FRONT IN THE EARLY EVENING STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY  
BECOME MORE ISOLATED.  
 
FOLLOWING FROPA THIS EVENING, CLOUDS CLEAR BY EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS  
COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN AIR GETS ADVECTED IN, AIDED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL  
TROUGH AXIS CENTERING OVER THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID-60S FOR  
COASTAL LOCATIONS, UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S IN URBANIZED AREAS OF  
NE NJ, NYC, AND NASSAU COUNTIES, AND DROP INTO THE LOW-60S TO  
UPPER-50S IN INTERIOR LOCATIONS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/  
 
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY AND COMPLETELY  
EXITS EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER-LEVEL  
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT  
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO  
FRIDAY NIGHT, PASSING EAST OFFSHORE, BUT REMAINING IN CONTROL,  
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY GIVEN  
WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO JUST ABOVE  
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER-50S  
TO NEAR 70.  
 
IDEAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS.  
SUNNY, DRY, WARM WEATHER FOR AFTERNOON ACTIVITIES WITH TEMPERATURES  
FALLING INTO THE 70S UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND  
STUCK CLOSE TO THE NBM/PREVIOUS FORECAST.  
 
KEY POINTS:  
 
* WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY .  
* A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TROUGH OVER THE  
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, VERTICAL TEMPERATURES  
PROFILES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH 85H TEMPS NEAR 18C BY MONDAY. IN  
ADDITION, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN  
GRADUALLY INCREASE HUMIDITY DURING THIS TIME.  
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH  
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENT IS WEAKLY SHEARED, BUT  
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS  
TO WHEN THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, OR IF IT SIMPLY WASHES OUT IN  
CLOSE PROXIMITY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN SOME  
INCREASING SPREAD FOR TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH  
PERCENTILES. ONCE AGAIN, THE NBM DETERMINISTIC TEMPERATURES ARE  
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE DURING THE FORECAST  
PERIOD.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA  
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
 
VFR TO START. LIFR CIGS ARE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING AT KGON AND  
KISP AND MAY ALSO IMPACT KBDR/KJFK.  
 
SW WINDS MAY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A FEW HOURS, BEFORE VEERING  
NW TOWARD DAYBREAK, THEN BACKING SW ONCE AGAIN INTO LATE MORNING.  
SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10 KT, WITH GUSTS TOWARD 20 KT POSSIBLE AFTER  
18Z, THOUGH MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL AT SOME SITES. RISK FOR TSRA LATE  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE, MAINLY 20Z TO 00Z FRI. ANY TSRA COULD  
PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. DRIER AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED  
TONIGHT.  
 
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...  
 
CAN NOT RULE OUT LOW CIGS REACHING KJFK EARLY THIS MORNING.  
 
GUSTS 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL.  
 
TIMING OF TSRA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY  
 
 
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS.  
 
FRIDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G15-18KT.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: VFR.  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT  
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE  
GRADIENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TSTMS MAY POSE A HAZARD OF STRONG  
WINDS, LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN, AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS THU  
AFT/EVE.  
 
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL FEATURE  
G15-20KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 3 FT, POSSIBLY AS 4 FT LATE  
MONDAY.  
 
 
   
HYDROLOGY  
 
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING  
 
A LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL OF 3 FT 6-7S WILL PRODUCE A  
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ON THURSDAY, AND LOW TO MODERATE ON  
FRIDAY. SURF LOOKS TO BE AROUND 3 FT THURSDAY AND AROUND 2 FT  
ON FRIDAY, POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE SE SUFFOLK BEACHES.  
 
 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...BR  
NEAR TERM...BR  
SHORT TERM...BR  
LONG TERM...  
AVIATION...BC  
MARINE...BR  
HYDROLOGY...BR  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
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