285
FXUS61 KOKX 260707
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
207 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A
LESS IMPACTFUL EVENT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE PASSING THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT YET.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
2) SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALONG
AN ARCTIC FRONT WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SQUALL ACTIVITY MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
3) A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NEARBY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN. AT THE SAME TIME, WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SPINS UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE
TO OUR SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE HAS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP SHIELD PASSING SOUTH OF US, WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF GRAZING THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE 00Z FV3 DOES BRING PRECIP
TO THE ENTIRE AREA, BUT NOT GIVING THIS TOO MUCH WEIGHT AT THE
MOMENT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NORTHEAST NJ, NYC AND LONG ISLAND. HAVE KEPT PTYPE AS SNOW, BUT
IF ANYTHING DOES FALL THERE IS POTENTIAL IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH TO
END UP BEING RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. REGARDLESS, SURFACE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AND GIVEN THE LIGHT
INTENSITY NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2
AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND IT. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED WHAT IT STARTED TO HINT AT
24 HOURS AGO WHICH IS HAVING SOME QPF ALONG THE FRONT. IF THIS
OCCURS, THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED, BUT RIGHT NOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THAT WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. A QUICK COATING TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, AGAIN NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.
WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDING IN, EXPECT WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND HIGHS IN THE 20S ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE BRING MULTIPLE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST WOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO CUT UNDER THE HIGH. THE
GFS AND GEFS HAD BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND FARTHEST NORTH
WITH THIS WAVE, BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS COME IN CLOSER IN LINE WITH
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF WHICH ARE FARTHER SOUTH. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS BEING ON THE EARLIER SIDE
(MONDAY). THE GEFS PRECIP ACCUM MEAN HAS GRADUALLY TRENDED DOWN
THE PAST 4 RUNS AND NOW HAS A MEAN OF 0.15 TO 0.25 INCHES. WHILE
THIS IS TRENDING TOWARDS A LESS IMPACTFUL EVENT, A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT YET.
THE HIGH THEN PUSHES EAST AND YET ANOTHER WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WARMER SITUATION
WITH LIKELY A FRONT END SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH LATE THURSDAY.
MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING, 21Z TO 02Z, AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM KEWR THROUGH
KISP, AND KGON, AND MAINTAINED A TEMPO. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THE TERMINALS REMAIN DRY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS A LITTLE FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT, AND AT TIMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL THE
TERMINALS, THROUGH THE FORECAST. A LIGHT W/SW FLOW OVERNIGHT, NW
THURSDAY, AND N THURSDAY EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AFTER 21Z, AT KEWR, KLGA, AND KJFK. MORE LIKELY THAT THE
TERMINALS REMAIN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT SNOW. N/NW WINDS G15-20 KT.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN OCEAN ZONE HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AS SEAS ARE BELOW 5FT AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN. SCA
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OTHER OCEAN ZONES TODAY.
CONDITIONS REMAIN LARGELY BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ353.
DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...DR/MET
MARINE...JT
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