740
FXUS61 KOKX 131501
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1101 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR SATURDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO INCREASE
FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
2) A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN,
THUNDERSTORMS, AND STRONG WINDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THE
SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, A GUSTY SOUTH WIND DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH, LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DROPPING OFF SOME AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST WITH
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH DAYTIME SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WILL GET UP INTO
THE LOWER 50S IN NYC AND NE NJ, AND THE MID/UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE,
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DEEP LOW
PRESSURE TO AFFECT THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS SLOWLY
EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN DEEPENS AND TRACKS MORE
NORTHERLY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE.
RAIN WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A GULF DISTURBANCE MOVES E OF
FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND THEN RIDES UP THE COAST BETWEEN THE
DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING AS
WELL.
MEANWHILE, A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS
GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW. THE
AREA WILL BE WARM SECTORED, AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY
COULD TRIGGER STRONG WINDS AND STRONG CONVECTION AS A 70-80 KT
LLJ MOVES THROUGH. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.50 INCHES, AND AS
CELLS TRACKS NORTHERLY ALONG THE FRONT WHILE THE FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF URBAN, LOW LYING,
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
NBM PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM HAVE INCREASED TO 70-80 PERCENT, WITH A 30-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF OVER 2 INCHES. PROBABILITIES FOR 24H MAX WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 45 MPH HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 60-70 PERCENT,
MAINLY FROM NYC EAST.
COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM GIVEN THE EXPECTED MAGNITUDE OF S FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
WAVE ACTION, ALSO WITH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES INCREASING WITH THE
APPROACH OF A NEW MOON NEXT WEDNESDAY. SURGE GUIDANCE (EVEN THE
HIGHER END OF STEVENS PETSS PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE) LOOKS
SUSPICIOUSLY LOW WITH SURGE OF ONLY ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 FT, AND
EXPECT IT TO PLAY CATCHUP AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER. ADDING A
HALF FOOT TO THIS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS TO BIAS-CORRECTED STOFS
GUIDANCE SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
WITH THE HIGH TIDES MON AND MON NIGHT.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THIS EVENING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE TONIGHT.
MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER, A PERIOD OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS THIS
EVENING FOR KSWF AND KHPN WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS AS EARLY AS THE EARLY EVENING FOR KSWF, AND MAINLY AFTER
0Z FOR KHPN. THIS HAS BEEN HANDLED WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS. CURRENT TRENDS MAY ALLOW FOR INCLUSION
OF TEMPO GROUPS AT SOME POINT FOR -SHRA FOR SOME CITY
TERMINALS.
WINDS THROUGH 17Z WILL BE GENERALLY W AND SW NEAR 10 KT. WINDS
INCREASE NEAR 10-15 KT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS DEVELOP IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, AND INCREASE TO NEAR 25 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. WIND DIRECTION LATER TONIGHT TRANSITIONS TO MORE
SW.
THERE IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS BEGINNING TOWARDS 03-04Z
FOR MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KSWF WITH SW WINDS NEAR 45 KT AT 2KFT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
START TIME OF GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF FROM TAF.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 30-35 KT DURING THE DAY. PEAK GUSTS UP
TO 40 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE 14 TO 17Z TIME
FRAME. GUSTS SUBSIDE QUICKLY IN THE EVENING.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR. SE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MVFR OR LOWER WITH RAIN BECOMING LIKELY. SE WIND GUSTS
NEAR 20 KT, INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH RAIN. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH GUSTS NEAR 35-40 KT. POTENTIAL PEAK
GUSTS MONDAY NIGHT TO 45 KT. WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND BECOME MORE
WESTERLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT, GUSTS CLOSER TO 35 KT.
TUESDAY: RAIN TAPERS OFF, POSSIBLE MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE ALL
PRECIPITATION ENDS. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. WSW WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS CONTINUE ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS ATTM. AS S
WINDS INCREASE TODAY, GUSTS OVER 25 KT ARE LIKELY ON THE
WESTERN OCEAN WATERS/SOUND AND NY HARBOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SCA COND THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS SW FLOW
INCREASES FURTHER TO 20-30 KT, HIGHEST ON THE OCEAN. MOST GUSTS
SHOULD BE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE, BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT MAY
BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR GALES ON ALL WATERS WILL COME DAYTIME SAT
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. W WINDS LIKELY TO GUST TO 35-40 KT
ON THE OCEAN AND UP TO 35 KT ELSEWHERE.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY RAMP DOWN DURING SAT NIGHT, WITH MOSTLY QUIET
CONDITIONS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO DAYTIME SUNDAY.
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON SUNDAY, WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS SE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH. SOUTHERLY GALES ARE THEN LIKELY MON INTO MON
NIGHT AFTER A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS
POSSIBLE MON EVENING BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
GALES SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON TUE AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, OTHERWISE SCA COND EXPECTED INTO TUE NIGHT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-332-340.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ335-338-345-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN/DS
AVIATION...JM/JE
MARINE...GOODMAN
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