351
FXUS61 KOKX 170028
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
828 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE COAST AND AREA WATERS
THROUGH AROUND 1AM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS PERIODS OF STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THRU 3AM TONIGHT.
2) A DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
3) A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
INTENSE SHORTWAVE PIVOTS TOWARDS AND THROUGH WESTERN PA/NY
TONIGHT WITH STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND CROSSING THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM.
AHEAD OF IT, LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE EVENING TO 65-75KT AT JUST 2 FT ALONG THE COAST. A BAND OF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING
LLJ (COOLING CLOUD TOPS SEEN WELL ON IR) WILL STREAM NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LI AND CT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 3/4"/HR BEING NOTED ACROSS THE
REGION. A WIDESPREAD 1" TO 1 1/2" LIKELY, WITH LOCALLY 2"
POSSIBLE, OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THIS AREA. PRIMARILY AN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING
FOR MORE THAN 2 HOURS. PRIMARY FLOOD THREAT REMAINS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOOD WATCH, WITH AN ISOLATED
URBAN AND FAST RESPONDING SMALLER RIVER/STREAM FLASH FLOOD
THREAT. STRONG INVERSION IS PREVENTING WINDS TO THE SURFACE WITH
THIS BAND, BUT ISOLATED 50 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE.
A BREAK IN INTENSITY, AND MORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
BEHIND THIS LLJ FORCED RAIN BAND, UNTIL NARROW FRONTAL BAND OF
DOWNPOURS AND LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION APPROACHES FOR THE 10PM TO
3 AM PERIOD FROM W TO E. MEANWHILE, LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN ALOFT THRU THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SFC WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS 50 TO 55 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, HIGHEST ALONG COAST
AND HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. ISOLATED 60 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST.
THE NARROW FRONTAL BAND OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION CROSSES THE REGION BETWEEN 10PM AND 3AM WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 1" OF RAINFALL, AS WELL
AS LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MIXING DOWN. PRIMARY THREAT FOR
CONVECTIVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (60+ MPH) WOULD BE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER WITH SHALLOWER INVERSION, WITH THE THREAT BECOMING
MORE ISOLATED EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
AS MARINE LAYER STRENGTHENS. THE SYNOPTIC AND CONVECTIVE WIND
THREAT IS COVERED IN THE WIND ADVISORY, WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS
BEING ALERTED THROUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING.
THE HIGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY ENVIRONMENT DOES BRING A NON-
ZERO THREAT OF A BRIEF AND WEAK TORNADO ALONG THE LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTIVE LINE WEST OF THE HUDSON (POTENTIAL FOR THIS IS LESS
THAN 1% FOR A 25 MILE RADIUS AROUND A SPECIFIC LOCATION).
STRONG WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH LIKELY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS
WIND SHIFT WILL ALSO HAVE TEMPS QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S,
RAIN COMING TO AND END, AND DENSE FOG SCOURING OUT ALONG THE
COAST.
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TUE AM COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, SETTLING
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY, THEN DEPARTS THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL
BRING IN A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OF
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RUN ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-MARCH. GUSTY CONDITIONS LIKELY
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY, AND WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 30S
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FRIDAY INTO MOVE
ACROSS THERE REGION THIS WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW, THERE REMAINS SOME
TIMING ISSUES WITH EXACTLY WHEN THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME CHANCE POPS THIS WEEKEND, WITH RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
***HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WEATHER EVENT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT***
A COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA, PASSING THROUGH THE NYC
TERMINALS NEAR MIDNIGHT, AND CLEARING ALL TERMINALS BY AROUND 06Z.
IFR AND LOWER FOR THE MOST PART THIS BEFORE AROUND MIDNIGHT. STILL A
CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. PROB30S COVER
THIS THREAT.
HIGHEST GUSTS IN THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE GENERALLY 35-40KT, BUT A CHANCE OF
EVEN HIGHER GUSTS DURING THIS SHORT PERIOD.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE WIND SHIFT TO
SW/WSW, AND IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THIS TIME. VFR THEN FOLLOWS FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS STILL 30-35KT OVERNIGHT, LOWERING
TO 25-30KT FOR TUESDAY.
LLWS WITH SSW 2KFT WINDS RANGING FROM 50KT AT KSWF, UPWARDS TO 70-
80KT FOR THE CITY TERMINALS, AND 80-90KT KISP/KGON. LLWS ENDS WITH
THE WIND SHIFT TO SW/WSW.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES. CHANCE THAT PROB30
TSRA GETS REMOVED WITH AMENDMENTS THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. W GUSTS AROUND 20 KT MAINLY IN THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR DURING THE DAY, WITH POSSIBLE SUB VFR IN
SHRA AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY: SUB VFR POSSIBLE SAT AM, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD GALE CONDITIONS
TO THE WATERS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED STORM
FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4AM. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 12 TO 17 FT ON THE OCEAN. IN ADDITIONS TO GALE
CONDITIONS, DENSE FOG AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH 4AM.
WESTERLY WINDSHIFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL SUBSIDE TO
SCA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SCA GUSTS LIKELY ON ALL WATER THROUGH
TUESDAY, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT. OCEAN SEAS, MAINLY
IN SOUTHERLY SWELLS, WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR MIDWEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-
176>179.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-073-075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
345-350-353-355.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...NV/BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...NV/BC
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