775  
FXUS61 KOKX 272037  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
337 PM EST THU FEB 27 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO CANADA TONIGHT, THEN STALL  
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE ON  
MONDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE MONDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM  
IMPACTS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT  
THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
 
 
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE HIT ADVY CRITERIA AT TIMES TODAY,  
BOTH ON GUSTS AND SUSTAINED. DAMAGE REPORTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN  
MINOR. THE WELL MIXED AIRMASS WILL KEEP THE WINDS UP INTO THIS  
EVENING, THEN SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE TO BLW ADVY CRITERIA TNGT  
AS OPTIMAL MIXING CONDITIONS CEASE. IT WILL STILL STAY WINDY  
HOWEVER WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW UP TO JET LEVEL.  
 
THE MODELS KEEP THE AREA DRY TNGT, ALTHOUGH THE TIMEHEIGHTS  
SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND 5000 FT FOR SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS.  
ALTHOUGH A FLURRY CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, WLY LAKE  
TRAJECTORY, DOWNSLOPE AND DRY AIRMASS KEEP THE CHANCES TOO LOW  
TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST.  
 
THE NBM WAS USED FOR TEMPS, WHICH IS WARMER THAN THE GUIDANCE  
DUE TO THE MIXED FLOW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRI AND FRI NGT, WITH LAKE  
EFFECT TO THE N, AND A MID LVL DISTURBANCE TRACKING TO THE S.  
WLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA WINDY, BUT PEAK GUSTS ABOUT 10-15 KT  
LESS BASED ON MODELED WINDS ALOFT. SKIES WILL LIKELY GO MOSTLY  
CLOUDY BY AFTN AS TEMPS HIT CONVECTIVE AND CLOUDS SPREAD.  
 
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FRI EVE INTO FRI NGT.  
THE LOW TO THE N WILL BE WEAKENING AND CONDITIONS FOR PRIME  
MIXING WILL BE REDUCED LOCALLY.  
 
THE NBM WAS USED FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND CHILLS WILL  
REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 20S ON FRI, AND FALL INTO THE TEENS FRI  
NGT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST  
CANADA WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW  
CONTINUES TO CARVE OUT MEAN TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD  
WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH  
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND IT AND  
RIDGING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE RIDGING IS QUITE  
PROGRESSIVE AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY  
NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE NEXT  
WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH ALOFT AHEAD A DEVELOPING  
LARGER UPPER TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS  
WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE MAIN UPPER  
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MAY NOT CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE  
WEEK.  
 
CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND WITH THE W-NW FLOW  
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES  
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS ON  
SATURDAY IN THE 30S AND ONLY RISING A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY INTO  
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALSO  
DEVELOP SCT-BKN STRATOCU DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. NIGHTTIME  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS INLAND AND THE 20S  
MOST ELSEWHERE, WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY  
NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 20-25  
MPH ON SATURDAY AND UP TO 20 MPH ON SUNDAY.  
 
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  
THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES MONDAY  
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THEN MAY STALL TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY  
BEFORE MOVING THROUGH AT SOME POINT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO  
THURSDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIKELY MOVE ALONG THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE TIMING OF THESE  
WAVES IS DIFFICULT TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT THIS JUNCTURE.  
HOWEVER, CHANCES OF SHOWERS EXIST IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST CHANCE  
APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH  
AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. IF THE FRONT DOES MOVE  
OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH DRY  
CONDITIONS RETURNING.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MIDDLE  
AND UPPER 50S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE TEMPERATURES NEXT  
THURSDAY COULD END UP LOWER IF THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION.  
 
VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CEILINGS  
LIFTING TO 4-5 KFT AND SCATTERING.  
 
WEST WINDS 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A  
FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY, ESPECIALLY AT THE CITY AND  
COASTAL TERMINALS. IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY  
WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
 
   
FRIDAY
 
VFR. W WINDS G25-30KT.   
SATURDAY
 
VFR. W/NW WINDS G20-25KT.   
SUNDAY
 
VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT.   
MONDAY
 
VFR EXPECTED.   
TUESDAY
 
SUB-VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.  
 

 
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
GALES WILL CONTINUE THRU TNGT ON ALL WATERS. THE WRNG MAY NEED  
TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRI ON THE OCEAN, WITH A  
SCA NEEDED ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRI NGT, BUT  
AN ADVY WILL BE NEEDED ON THE OCEAN, WITH CONDITIONS MRGNL  
ELSEWHERE.  
 
SCA CONDITIONS IN WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS ABOVE 5  
FT ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY  
WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS. WINDS AND  
SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD  
FRONT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 (162.55 MHZ) IS STILL  
OPERATING AT REDUCED POWER.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.  
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-  
078>081-176>179.  
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-  
103>108.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-  
350-353-355.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DS  
NEAR TERM...  
SHORT TERM...  
LONG TERM...DS  
AVIATION...BC  
MARINE...DS  
HYDROLOGY...DS  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
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