826
FXUS61 KOKX 160835
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
435 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2019
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK
JUST OFF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND MOVE OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY, REMAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY WILL START OUT QUIET BEFORE QUICKLY DETERIORATING AS AN
AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTERACTS WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY. THIS WILL CAUSE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS AIDED BY THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH, UPPER JET EXIT AND ENTRANCE REGIONS
AND THERMAL FORCING WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAINFALL AS THE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PRODUCE A GENERAL 1 TO 3
INCHES, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BANDS. MUCH OF THIS RAIN WILL FALL IN A 6
TO 9 HOUR PERIOD FROM LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT. IF HIGHER AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE, THERE COULD BE
LOCALIZED FLOODING, HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY REMAINS LOW WITH THE
EXCEPTION FOR NE NJ WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
BASED ON 6 HOUR GRIDDED FFG.
AHEAD OF THE LOW, A PERIOD OF E/SE WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. THEN AS THE SECONDARY LOW DEEPENS, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COAST.
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON
BEGINNING TONIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW WHERE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TODAY AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50 DEGREES
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY INTO MAINE ON THURSDAY, STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW
AND COLD POOL INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE BEST MIXING
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH AMPLITUDE, AND PROGRESSIVE, FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ONE TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW WILL BE
EXITING THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES, AND OFF THE COAST,
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH A STRONGER WAVE DIGGING A
TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS DEEP TROUGH WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY, STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE COLD
ADVECTION AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW. HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME AS WILL BE THE FOURTH PERIOD, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. ALSO,
HIGHEST WINDS MOSTLY LIKELY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES,
SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT, INTO THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. THIS
IS WERE BEST MIXING, AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE. THE GFS
HAD HIGHER WINDS OF 50 TO 60 KT 900 TO 850 MB, AND THE ECMWF WAS IN
THE 45 TO 50 KT RANGE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
WITH NEARLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND INLAND AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, WILL SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH AREAS OF FROST.
A WARM UP BEGINS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ANOMALOUSLY ABOVE
NORMAL. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A WAVE ALONG THE
TRIPLE POINT, AND THE GFS MORE DELAYED WITH ONLY WARM ADVECTION
FORCING WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING. STARTED TO BRING IN
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT, MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
***HIGH IMPACT RAIN AND WIND EVENT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY***
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE TODAY AS INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WEST. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD PRECEDE THE RAIN DURING LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE NYC METROS, THEN RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP AFTER 18Z. RAIN WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. RAIN TAPERS OFF AFTER 4-6Z BUT MVFR CIGS
AROUND 3000 FT MAY REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY, WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KT
LIKELY BY LATE EVENING/TONIGHT. DIRECTION WILL VARY AS THE LOW
TRACKS OVER AND THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND
THE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT, AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THU.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LATE TONIGHT
RAIN TAPERS OFF BUT STRONG WINDS CONTINUE.
THURSDAY
POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS. W WINDS G30-40KT.
FRIDAY
VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT.
SATURDAY
VFR.
SUNDAY
VFR.
MARINE
A STRONG SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SCA CONDITIONS TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SE GUSTS 25-30 KT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WESTERLY GALES WILL BRING GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.
A GALE WARNING CONTINUES THURSDAY FOR ALL WATERS. GALE FORCE GUSTS
MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING ON THE NON OCEAN WATERS AND INTO
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ON OCEAN WATERS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE DIMINISHING TIME OF THE GUSTS, THE GALE WARNING HAS NOT BEEN
EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.
SCA WIND GUSTS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ONCE GUSTS FALL BELOW GALE
LEVELS. OCEAN SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS REMAIN ON THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OF 1-3 INCHES IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOCALIZED SWATHS OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN A 6-9 HR PERIOD LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
URBAN, POOR DRAINAGE, AND LOW LYING FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY OF FLASH FLOODING ALONG A FEW OF THE FAST RESPONDING
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS IN NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.
ADDITIONALLY, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE FOR
COASTAL ROADS IF HEAVIEST RAIN COINCIDES WITH THE WED NIGHT HIGH
TIDES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE SE FETCH ACROSS THE WATERS WILL ENABLE FOR PILING OF WATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THE WINDS INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT.
HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS THIS MORNING. SOME ISOLATED MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS
AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND ALONG THE WESTCHESTER AND SW
CONNECTICUT SHORELINES. WATER LEVELS FOR MINOR THIS MORNING ARE
ABOUT 1.5 TO 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL.
HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE BETWEEN 9AM AND 12PM ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE
BACK BAYS AND BETWEEN 12PM AND 3PM ACROSS THE WESTERN LONG ISLAND
SOUND.
FOR TONIGHT, ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS LOWER. HOWEVER, THE SURGE WILL BE
QUITE MORE THAN THIS MORNING SO THE WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOUT 2.5 TO 3 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL, ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING FOR MUCH OF LONG ISLAND SHORELINES AS WELL AS
WESTCHESTER SHORELINE AND SW CONNECTICUT SHORELINES ALONG THE
WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. OTHER COASTAL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO JUST
TOUCH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS AND WILL BE MORE ISOLATED.
BATTERY NY EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARK.
HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT RUN BETWEEN 9PM TO 12AM FOR SOUTH SHORE
BAYS, AND 12AM TO 3AM FOR WESTERN LI SOUND, LONG ISLAND SHORELINES,
AND SE CONNECTICUT.
WITH GUSTY WESTERLY AND MAINLY OFFSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY, FOR THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR THURSDAY MORNING, NO COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.
EQUIPMENT
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 (162.55 MHZ) REMAINS OFF THE
AIR.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
CTZ012.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR NYZ071.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR NYZ078>081.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR NYZ178-179.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NYZ079-081.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...CB
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB/MET
AVIATION...
MARINE...CB/MET
HYDROLOGY...CB/MET/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
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