144
FXUS61 KOKX 240844
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
444 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GALE WARNINGS ON THE OCEAN WATERS OUT TO 20 NM WERE EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY. GALE WATCHES ON CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUND AND
THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS WERE CONVERTED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COASTAL STORM LIKELY BRINGS RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANY RAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED.
MOSTLY MINOR WIND IMPACTS POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY FOR COASTAL AREAS.
2) COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH FLOODING/EROSION EXPECTED THIS
WEEK, WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
3) A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
SURF CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN ITS LOCATION,
ANTICIPATING THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK NEAR OR NOT TOO FAR EAST OF
THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY BEFORE MEANDERING OR
RETROGRADING TOWARD THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND, THEN SLOWLY
DEPARTING DURING MONDAY AS IT WEAKENS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK
IS STILL NOT HIGH DUE TO THE CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW ALOFT.
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING, AND MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY,
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
THE THE CITY AND POINTS WEST, RAIN CHANCES ARE MOSTLY BELOW 50%
UP UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. STILL THINKING THAT
RAINFALL FLOODING IMPACTS ARE LITTLE TO NONE - JUST LOW CHANCE
FOR FLOODING ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES, AND PROBABLY LIMITED TO
MINOR NUISANCE AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LONG ISLAND,
ESPECIALLY EASTERN LONG ISLAND, CAN HANDLE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
RAIN, ESPECIALLY THE LONG DURATION NATURE OF THE EVENT. HOWEVER,
IF THE NAM VERIFIES, A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THE
FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR
THE SOUTH FORK OF LONG ISLAND IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD. IF MODELS
TREND WEST WITH THE STORM TRACK, THEN WESTERN ZONES COULD HAVE A
CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED SOUTHEAST CT AND CENTRAL AND EASTER LONG ISLAND IN A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
AS FOR WINDS, CONTINUE ANTICIPATING GUSTS TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, BUT IT COULD COME CLOSE ACROSS EASTERN LI
AND SE CT LATE DAY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES OF MOST CONCERN CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE
FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING. A BLEND OF ESTOFS, ETSS AND
STEVEN'S 50TH WAS USED WITH THE LATEST TWL FORECAST.
AHEAD OF THE STORM, PERSISTENT NE FLOW BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE SOUTH COULD
HELP TRAP WATER AND ALLOW IT TO PILE THROUGH LATE WEEK,
EXACERBATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TIDAL FLOODING. THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN AHEAD OF THE STORM LOOK TO BE PORTIONS OF THE NY HARBOR
AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THURSDAY EVENING
AND FRIDAY MORNING. COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ZONES TO BE ADDED IF CONFIDENCE IN MINOR FLOODING
INCREASES FOR OTHER AREAS.
THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE WITH THE FRIDAY EVENING AND
SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. THIS LOOKS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
SOLID MINOR, LOCALLY MODERATE FLOODING SITUATION FOR MOST AREAS.
FOR SOUTHERN NASSAU, THERE WAS HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A
WIDESPREAD MODERATE FLOOD EVENT TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 3
SWELL FROM THE APPROACHING COASTAL STORM WILL BRING A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK INTO THE WEEKEND. AN 11-12FT SWELL AROUND 11-12S IS
EXPECTED OUT OF THE EAST. BECAUSE OF THE EASTERLY DIRECTION,
SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND 6-7 FT. IF
CONFIDENCE IN 7 FT SURF INCREASES, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING AND REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
SOME OF THE AREA TERMINALS HAVE STARTED TO REPORT SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AT 2-3KFT THIS MORNING. WILL COVER THIS USING A TEMPO
GROUP. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT A GUSTY PERIOD ALTHOUGH GUSTS MAY END FOR A LITTLE
BIT OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
SPEEDS DURING THE DAYTIME 15-20 KT, WITH GUSTS MAINLY 25-30 KT.
SOME OF THE WESTERN TERMINALS MAY SEE GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 KT.
SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER IT WILL
REMAIN GUSTY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NE WINDS 10-15G20-30KT, HIGHEST AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER COND IN SHOWERS AS A COASTAL
STORM NEARS THE AREA. N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25 TO AROUND 35
KT FRIDAY, HIGHEST EAST OF NYC METROS AND ALONG THE COAST. 30 TO 40
KT POSSIBLE SATURDAY, HIGHEST EAST. WINDS/GUSTS MAY BE UP TO 10 KT
HIGHER THAN FCST IF THE STORM IS CLOSER TO THE AREA.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS. N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT, G25-30KT.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, SUB VFR POSSIBLE EARLY EAST. N-NW WINDS 7-15KT,
G20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GALES CONTINUE ON ALL OCEAN WATERS OUT TO 60 NM TODAY. THE
GALES ON THE OCEAN WATERS OUT TO 20 NM WERE EXTENDED INTO
FRIDAY AS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE AT
LEAST GALE FORCE. HOWEVER, STORM FORCE CONDITIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONE. DECIDED TO GO
WITH THE GALE WARNING TO AVOID CONFUSING DOUBLE HEADLINES (GALE
WARNING WITH A STORM WATCH IN EFFECT AT THE SAME TIME) AND ALLOW
A STEP UP TO EITHER A STORM WATCH OR STORM WARNING WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES. GALE WATCHES ON CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUND AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS WERE CONVERTED TO GALE
WARNINGS FOR FRIDAY AND ALL OTHER WATERS A SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT. HOWEVER, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN UPGRADE TO GALES FOR
THESE WATERS, WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW. ANY PRODUCT ISSUANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND WAS TOO
FAR OUT IN TIME TO ISSUE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN TRACK UNCERTAINTY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR NYZ080-179.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ331-332-340-
345.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ331-332-340-
345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ335-338.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ380-383-385.
STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ380-383-385.
DISCUSSION...JP/JT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JP
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