547
FXUS61 KOKX 190719
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
219 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WINTRY MIX TO INLAND AREAS
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THEN BECOMING PLAIN RAIN, WITH
RAIN ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
2) POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH INTO LATE TODAY PUSHING A
COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION, THAT THEN BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY. SOUTHERN BRANCH ENERGY, IN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW,
APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.
MEANWHILE, A NORTHERN BRANCH LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT TONIGHT AND
WILL AFFECT THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION MOVING BACK INTO THE
AREA AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THE NAM, AND SEVERAL CAMS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION UNTIL TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTIES HAVE GENERALLY USED THE NBM PROBABILITIES TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WARM AIR MOVING IN ALOFT THERMAL PROFILES ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR, PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND
INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SLEET
AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW MIXED AT TIMES. FARTHER TO THE EAST,
ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT PROFILES ARE INDICATING
MORE SNOW AND RAIN, AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET. WARMER AIR MOVES
INTO THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH RETREATS AND
PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION
TAPERS OFF LATE AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH LOW WELL TO THE WEST
ELONGATES AND TRACKS NORTH. WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING
RAIN EXPECTED, UP TO A TENTH, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AND BEING LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ONE AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THERE REMAINS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
AND TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THERE
HAS BEEN A CLEAR TREND TO THE NW THE LAST 24-36H IN THE LOW
TRACK WITH ECAIFS, AIGFS, THE GEFS, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
GEPS. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND GDPS (CANADIAN) THE LAST 2 TO
3 RUNS HAVE A LOW TRACK THAT HAS BEEN CLOSE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION, BUT NOT A MAJOR EVENT. BOTTOM LINE,
THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF JUMPING AROUND OF THE GUIDANCE AND THIS
IS LIKELY DUE TO COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN MULTIPLE
STREAMS/UPPER LOWS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS COULD STILL BE THE CASE
ANOTHER 24H OR SO BEFORE WE SEE BETTER CONSISTENCY AMONGST ALL
OF THE GUIDANCE.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, THE FORECAST HAS CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE
NBM. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE ARE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 PERCENT, HIGHEST ACROSS LI. EVEN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS
GET NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT. THAT BEING SAID, THE GUIDANCE
BEING ALL OVER THE PLACE HAS KEPT THESE NUMBERS LOW. THE SYSTEM
THOUGH IS VERY MUCH WORTH WATCHING BECAUSE OF ITS POTENTIAL WITH
INCREDIBLE DEEPENING OF THE LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 24 MB IN 12H IN THE 00Z GFS AND GDPS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS A CONCERN
SHOULD A MORE WESTERN TRACK BECOME THE CONSENSUS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM CANADA.
SUB VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE, LIGHT RAIN, AND MIST.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST THRU 12Z AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN. CIGS THEN LIKELY HANG JUST ABOVE 3 KFT MUCH OF
THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES INTO FRIDAY AM, AND
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DECLINE AFTER 9Z FRI WITH RAIN DEVELOPING AT
COASTAL TERMINALS, AND A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX AT KSWF.
WINDS BECOME NE INTO EARLY MORNING, THEN E BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS REMAIN AT OR UNDER 10 KT THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER COND POSSIBLE IN RAIN AT
THE CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS AND SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX AT KSWF.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN SNOW.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELLS KEEP SEAS AROUND 5
FEET. SWELLS MAY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED. THE NON
OCEAN WATERS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
OCEAN SEAS BUILD BACK UP AGAIN TO 5 FT FRIDAY INTO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GUSTS NEAR SCA LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE FRIDAY.
A COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. WIND AND WAVE FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON
HOW CLOSE IT PASSES AND HOW MUCH IT CAN STRENGTHEN. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON OCEAN WATERS AND GALE
CONDITIONS ON OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
DISCUSSION...MET/DW
AVIATION...DR/DW
MARINE...MET/JT
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