363
FXUS61 KOKX 021949
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
349 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CANCELLED FOR THE NON OCEAN WATERS, AND
EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. POTENTIAL DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR
COASTAL AREAS.
2. MINIMAL TIDAL FLOODING IMPACTS AT BEST FOR TONIGHT.
3. SHOWERS ON SUNDAY COULD PRODUCE LOCAL DOWNPOURS THAT WOULD
LEAD TO BRIEF NUISANCE FLOODING AT MOST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WARM FRONT ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED LIFT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE. FOG WILL THEN BECOME MORE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING WITH THE WIND FLOW TURNING MORE SE AND WARMER
DEWPOINTS ADVECT OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPS. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH REGARDING HOW LOW THE SURFACE VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED AS WELL AS ACTUAL ONSET OF LOWEST VSBYS, HOWEVER SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE AREAS TO WIDESPREAD INSTANCES
WHERE THE VISIBILITY FALLS CLOSE TO 1/4 MILE. NO ADVISORIES
PLANNED AT THE MOMENT, BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
HIGHEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG WILL BE TOWARD THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SPRING TIDES ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT ENE FLOW WILL ALLOW TIDES
TO BRIEFLY RISE TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE ACROSS THE MOST
VULNERABLE BACK BAY LOCATIONS OF NASSAU COUNTY AS WELL AS ALONG
PORTIONS OF STATEN ISLAND AND PARTS OF NE NJ THIS EVENING.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY BACKED OFF MINOR FLOOD POTENTIAL,
WITH WATER LEVELS RISING NO HIGHER THAN ACTION STAGE IN THE
ABOVE AREAS. DECIDED TO LET COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RIDE SINCE
IMPACTS WOULD BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
WATERFRONT/SHORELINE.
KEY MESSAGE 3
HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN US.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT DRIVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES, WITH ATTENDANT FRONTS LIFTING TOWARD THE REGION, BRINGING
THE NEXT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
WARM FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE, BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT WITH THE
ACTIVITY, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A
LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. GLOBAL GUIDANCE PROGS PW UP TO 1.5
INCHES THOUGH, TOWARD THE TOP OF CLIMO THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO TAP INTO THAT COULD TRANSLATE INTO
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
IMPACTS LIKELY LIMITED TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AT MOST, MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, QPF IS LIGHT GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM, AVERAGING AT OR UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT, AND THE MILDER AIR
MASS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE
SEASONABLE ONE, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN THE 40S
AND 50S FOR MOST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A WARM FRONT QUICKLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME IFR TO LIFR, WITH
LOW CHANCE/ISOLATED VLIFR CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL
POCKETS OF -DZ THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH -SHRA POSSIBLE AS WELL,
MAINLY BETWEEN 04Z-10Z.
E WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KT
TONIGHT. GUSTS HAVE ENDED FOR MOST TERMINALS AS WELL, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH 21Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
S TO SW FRIDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT BY LATE
MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY: GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SW WINDS G15-20KT.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER SAT NIGHT.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SE-S WINDS G15-20 KT.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SW WINDS
G20KT DAYTIME. W-NW WINDS G20 KT AT NIGHT.
MONDAY: VFR. W-NW WINDS G15-20 KT.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS. W
WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH G15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA CANCELLED ON THE NON OCEAN WATERS. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KT
WERE STILL OCCURRING ON THE FAR WESTERN SOUND PER OBS AT
EXECUTION ROCKS, OTHERWISE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING.
MEANWHILE, OCEAN SEAS CONTINUE TO RUN 6-9 FT WHICH IS 1-2 FT
ABOVE NWPS FORECAST, HIGHEST WEST DUE TO PERSISTENT ENE FLOW UP
TO 20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 25-30 KT. WITH THIS IN MIND, IT NOW
APPEARS THAT ANY LULL DAYTIME FRI WILL BE BRIEF AND THAT SEAS
WILL BUILD BACK TO 5-6 FT BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT
OR EARLY SAT MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT S AFTER WARM FROPA AND
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT.
DENSE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES. CHOSE NOT TO ISSUE THE ADVY UNTIL TIMING
OF ONSET OF LOWER VSBYS BECOMES CLEARER.
SCA COND ARE ALSO LIKELY SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AND OCEAN SEAS 7-10
FT LIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON THE OCEAN LOOKS LOW DUE TO A
STRONG SFC-BASED INVERSION AND LLJ ONLY 50-55 KT. THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS TO OUR EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO ANY GALES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OUR EAST.
OCEAN SEAS THEN LIKELY LINGER ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN/DR
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...GOODMAN/DR
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