027
FXUS61 KOKX 130015
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
815 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A PERIOD OF WET SNOW IS LIKELY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BECOMING COLDER WITH A PERIOD OF WET SNOW INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.
2) STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WILL TRACK TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, SENDING A WARM FRONT THROUGH
IN THE EVENING AND A COLD FRONT LATE AT NIGHT.
3) A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA WITH THUNDERSTORMS,
RAIN, AND WIND, FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN UPPER JET AND TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES. THE SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF LI AND SOUTHEAST CT BETWEEN 8 AND
10 PM. HOWEVER, A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 30S TONIGHT TO AT OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK, EXCEPT A BIT WARMER FOR THE NYC/NJ
METRO.
KEY MESSAGE 2
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING WILL
TRACK EAST AND PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN CT. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS
IN THE 40S.
ADDITIONALLY, A GUSTY SOUTH WIND DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH, LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DROPPING
OFF SOME AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE LATTER OF WHICH MOVES THROUGH
BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT A GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGHS WILL GET
UP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S, WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DEEP LOW
PRESSURE TO AFFECT THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
SLOWLY WEAKENING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN DEEPENS AND TRACKS MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT WINDS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW. THE AREA WILL BE WARM
SECTORED, AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY COULD TRIGGER
STRONG CONVECTION AS A 60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES INCREASE TO 1.50 INCHES,
AND STORMS TRACKS NORTHERLY ALONG THE FRONT WHILE MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF URBAN, LOW LYING, AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING. NBM 24H PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL REMAIN AROUND 40-60 PERCENT. AND THE NBM PROBABILITIES
FOR 24H MAX WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH HAVE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED TO 50-65 PERCENT.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY 00-01Z THIS
EVENING AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
W TO NW AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
10 KT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. SOME OUTLYING TERMINALS MAY BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
WINDS THEN INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND
SHIFT TO THE S AT 15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR WINDS AS GUSTS OF 20-25 KT THIS EVENING
MAY NOT REDEVELOP.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT : VFR. S WINDS 10-15 KT WITH 20-25 KT AFTERNOON
INTO NIGHT.
SATURDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT DURING THE DAY.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. SE WIND GUSTS
NEAR 20-25 KT AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH RAIN. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 25-30
KT DURING THE DAY. MORE WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT AT NIGHT.
LLWS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY: VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS IN A POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY TRACKS EAST AND PASSES TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN UP
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL REACH SCA CRITERIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS ON THE OCEAN STARTING
FRIDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN FOLLOWS BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY IN A WEST FLOW ON SATURDAY.
MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS.
AN APPROACHING DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY, WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS BY LATE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS THROUGH
EASTERN CANADA MONDAY SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS ALL THE FORECAST WATERS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WINDS AND GUSTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE, AND A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS BECOMING POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH GALES LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING, THEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING TO SCA LEVELS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH. OCEAN GUSTS MAY EVEN BRIEFLY
APPROACH STORM FORCE DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...MET/DW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MET/DW
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