827
FXUS61 KOKX 170009
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
709 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
KEY POINTS:
* DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED FREEZING LOWS IN THE
20S.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SYNOPTIC SW FLOW AND THEREBY ALLOW FOR THE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO BE MORE MODERATED OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL-BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT IN THE 20S, BUT THIS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT GOING WELL BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THERE WILL
POTENTIALLY BE SOME PATCHY ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES, ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
* FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH, POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 50 MPH GUSTS FOR SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. THE TIME FRAME FOR THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL AS WELL AS
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WOULD BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.
* OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRENDING
COLDER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL AND MID LEVEL FLOW QUASI-ZONAL FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED LATE THURSDAY WITH
LARGE LONG TROUGH MOVING ACROSS FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC. MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES
AS VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE DEEPER. FOR WEDNESDAY, MAX TEMPERATURES
FORECAST ARE INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED PARENT LOW IS WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH MAIN FORCING, ALLOWING FOR THIS TO BE
A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THEREAFTER THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW, PROVIDING MORE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE RATHER COLD DUE TO
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. BUT EVEN TAKING THAT INTO
ACCOUNT, THE LOWS ARE RELATIVELY WARMER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT.
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY.
THE PARENT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONG AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
EARLY FRIDAY.
MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
FOLLOWING BY DECREASING TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL THUS EXHIBIT A NON-DIURNAL TREND. HIGHS WILL GET
INTO THE 50S. THIS WILL ENSURE RAPID SNOWMELT PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL
OF RAINFALL AND MITIGATE ANY ICE CONCERNS GIVEN WELL-ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME, THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN, POTENTIALLY
BRIEFLY HEAVY, AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION, SOME
SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN, MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
BEFORE ALL PRECIPITATION CONCLUDES. SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS EVIDENT IN
SOUNDINGS, BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH FOR ANY THUNDER, SO HAVE LEFT THIS
OUT OF THE FORECAST, FOR NOW, BUT REMAINS WORTH WATCHING.
ALSO, WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE INITIALLY LIMITED TO
INVERSIONS IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT COULD MIX DOWN MORE WITH DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH HEAVIER RAIN. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT CONTINUE
SHOW 850MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 70-80 KT, A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET.
RELATIVELY STRONGER SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASING AND THEREBY INCREASING VERTICAL MIXING
LEVELS. GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LOOKING MORE PROBABLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE JUST AHEAD,
ALONG AND BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* A CHANCE FOR SOME BLACK ICE DUE TO REFREEZING FRI NIGHT.
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STRONG CAA FRI NGT MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF REFREEZING ON AREA ROADS DUE
TO THE RAIN AND SNOWMELT. BASED ON WINDS ALOFT, GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
SEEM LIKELY, ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER PEAK GUSTS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND CAA.
BREEZY IN THE MRNG ON SAT, THEN WINDS BACK TO THE SW IN THE AFTN AS
RETURN FLOW BEGINS. TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL.
A LITTLE WARMER ON SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYS, THEN COLDER ON
MON WITH HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 30S BEHIND THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. A DRY FROPA IS MODELED ATTM WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL AGAIN ON TUE WITH THE NEXT WEAK SYS
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PCPN.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MOVES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY.
VFR.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS EVENING SLIGHTLY DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20
TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN AROUND 00Z THURSDAY.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IT IS MARGINAL WITH SW WINDS AT 2 KFT FROM
35 TO 45 KT, WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 50 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD ARE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: W WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW AROUND 10 KT,
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY: VFR, POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER LATE IN
THE DAY. S WINDS G15-20KT LATE DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: IFR WITH RAIN. S WINDS G20-25KT IN THE EVENING,
INCREASING TO 25-35KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LLWS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY: RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR, THEN RAIN ENDING WITH
VFR. SW WINDS G25-35KT IN THE MORNING, SHIFTING W IN THE AFTERNOON.
LLWS EARLY.
SATURDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY: VFR. W WINDS G20KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
DUE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT, A SCA IS IN PLACE FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW ON ALL WATERS FOR WINDS. WAVES
WILL ALSO BE 5-7 FT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING.
THEN CONDITIONS RETURN TO BELOW SCA LEVELS UNTIL THE APPROACH
OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THURSDAY NIGHT WAVES FINALLY CLIMB
ABOVE 5 FT AND CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE NIGHT PEAKING ON
FRIDAY AROUND 15- 17 FT ON OCEAN WATERS. LIKEWISE, WINDS
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT, REACHING REACHING GALE CRITERIA FOR
MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ON MOST, IF NOT ALL, WATERS.
A GALE WRNG WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR FRI NGT, WITH WINDS DECREASING
THRU THE DAY ON SAT BUT STILL AROUND SCA LVLS. SEAS ARE MODELED TO
BUILD TO AROUND 15FT ON THE ERN OCEAN FRI NGT. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED ON SUN AS WELL AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS.
HYDROLOGY
AT THIS TIME, NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ350-353.
SYNOPSIS...JMC/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JMC/BR
HYDROLOGY...JMC/BR
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