982  
FXUS61 KOKX 230006  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
806 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE  
THEN BUILDS TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, AND  
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY  
PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
 
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING  
COLD FRONT ARE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON  
VALLEY AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AS OF 8 PM. THESE STORMS MAY BE  
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE, ESPECIALLY IN NEW JERSEY INTO  
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK CITY, WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
WARNING WAS ISSUED UNTIL 845 PM. ALSO, SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, SO LESSER  
CHANCES FOR TOWARDS EASTERN AREAS, UNTIL THIS MAIN AREA OF  
SHOWERS MOVES EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT.  
 
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, AND IT  
APPEARS THAT OUTSIDE OF THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY NW OF THE CITY,  
THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL ARRIVE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS LIFT IS  
ENHANCED BY A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  
THIS JET WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME WIND SHEAR TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE  
OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE OVERALL  
THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WIND GUSTS IS LOW AS CAPE WILL BE  
DIMINISHING BY THIS POINT. FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE A LOW THREAT  
GIVEN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORMS. RAIN CHANCES THEN  
DIMINISH TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  
 
HEAT INDEX VALUES SO FAR WITHIN THE ADVISORY HAVE BEEN  
PRIMARILY BELOW 95, AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE  
REST OF THE DAY. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE HEAT ADVISORY.  
 
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE  
OCEAN BEACHES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
MORNING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL  
JET COMBINING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH THE RIGHT  
ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET WILL BE APPROACHING US THROUGH THE  
DAY, THE DRYING AND STABLE AIRMASS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE COLD  
FRONT WILL COUNTERACT THIS, SO DRY IN THE AFTERNOON. MID AND  
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PROBABLY LINGER HOWEVER, AND CHANCES OF A  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY. DEWPOINTS  
WILL BE IN THE 50S SO IT WILL FEEL MUCH LESS HUMID THAN IT HAS  
BEEN, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
 
FURTHER CLEARING OF THE SKY OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S FOR THE  
NORTHERN SUBURBS AND PINE BARRENS REGION.  
 
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FRIDAY ALONG THE OCEAN  
BEACHES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
LATEST NWP MODEL SUITE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS NORTH  
AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY TUE, THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVIATE  
SIGNIFICANTLY OFF THE EAST COAST ALONG WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE  
DIFFERENCES WITH A TROUGH/CUTOFF OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND  
INTO THE PLAINS.  
 
A DRY, COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS PREVAILS OVER THE WEEKEND  
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS  
TIME OF YEAR. AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE WEST, A  
WEAK CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY  
SHOWERS AS A RESULT OF THIS WITH THE LACK OF A COLD POOL ALOFT.  
HOWEVER, AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH ACROSS  
SE CANADA AND INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS  
PATTERN IS INDICATIVE OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY SOME  
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SUN/SUN NIGHT. THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTH  
AND EAST ON MON, AS ANOTHER LOW OFF THE CAROLINA APPROACHES.  
THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY IN THE BAHAMAS  
AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR TROPICAL  
DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND EC TRACK IT WELL SOUTH  
AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA MID NEXT WEEK, WHILE THE CMC SHEARS  
IT APART OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA.  
 
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS GRADUALLY  
TRAVERSES EAST THROUGH THU BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE THERE ARE  
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SO THE TIMING OF THE  
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN. TEMPS WILL INCREASE BACK  
TO NORMAL LEVELS WED AND THU WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WELL  
DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY  
MORNING.  
 
MAINLY VFR, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH  
06Z, MOVING EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR  
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.  
 
WINDS ARE VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LIGHT, LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS  
WILL BECOME NW TO N AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE TERMINALS, AND  
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT. N TO NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH  
FRIDAY.  
 
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR, CONDITIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS 01Z TO 03Z. HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND  
GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE.  
NO AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.  
 
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR, CONDITIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS 01Z TO 03Z. HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND  
GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE.  
NO AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.  
 
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR, CONDITIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS 01Z TO 03Z. HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND  
GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE.  
NO AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.  
 
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR, CONDITIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS 01Z TO 03Z. HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND  
GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE.  
NO AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.  
 
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR, CONDITIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS 01Z TO 03Z. HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND  
GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE.  
NO AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.  
 
KISP TAF COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH  
THUNDERSTORMS 02Z TO 06Z. NO AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
 
   
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT
 
VFR.   
SUNDAY
 
VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.   
MONDAY-TUESDAY
 
VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN  
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALONG COAST, NE FLOW 10-15 KT  
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A SW FLOW OF 10-15KT SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT  
PASSES THROUGH. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT, AND GUSTS BELOW  
25 KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN OFFSHORE FLOW OF AROUND 10 KT OR LESS  
THEN MAINTAINS SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS FRIDAY AND  
FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN SUN WITH  
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO MON DUE TO A STRENGTHENING  
EASTERLY FLOW. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED BEYOND MON AND  
POSSIBLY CONTINUE THROUGH THU WITH A POTENTIAL AREA OF LOW PRES  
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TRACK S AND E OF THE WATERS DURING THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
SCATTERED STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL POSE A RISK  
FOR MAINLY MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON  
AND TONIGHT. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 (162.55 MHZ) REMAINS OFF  
THE AIR.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JC/24  
NEAR TERM...JC  
SHORT TERM...JC  
LONG TERM...24  
AVIATION...19  
MARINE...JC/24  
HYDROLOGY...JC/24  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
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