905  
FXUS61 KOKX 231751  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
1251 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS  
WEEKEND, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE  
HIGH WEAKENS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE  
APPROACHES. THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  
ANOTHER LOW MAY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
A FEW MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE, SPECIFICALLY WITH  
TEMPERATURES BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.  
 
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND  
LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES  
THIS WEEKEND, WILL RESULT IN A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS  
THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING, GUSTING 30-35 MPH.  
 
SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY SAVE  
FOR ANY MIDLEVEL STRATOCUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT ADVECTS  
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET  
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S, WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER  
TEENS TODAY UNDER THE BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT  
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. LOW TEMPERATURES  
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD, IN THE LOW TEENS TO NEAR 20  
ACROSS NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND, UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS  
SHOULD STAY UP INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY TEMPER LOWS A BIT.  
WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS. FOR NOW  
WENT WITH NBM TEMPERATURES, AND ADJUSTED TOWARD LOWER MOS  
VALUES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SW CT.  
 
THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND INTO THE DAY  
ON SUNDAY, THOUGH LESS SO THAN ON SATURDAY, 20-25 MPH AND FINALLY  
BEGINNING TO TAPER BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL MODERATE  
SOMEWHAT INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S, CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS  
TIME OF YEAR.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH NEAR  
ZONAL FLOW. A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY,  
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES  
THROUGH THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER  
CONSENSUS WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE TRACK AND  
DEPTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH  
THE TRACK AND HOW THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN  
STREAM BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE  
NORTHERN TRACK. AT THIS TIME THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH  
FOR AN ALL LIGHT SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER, IF THE NORTHERN STREAM IS  
WEAKER THE STORM MAY TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND MIXING WILL BE  
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. AND IF THE BLOCKING REMAINS IN PLACE  
WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM, THE LOW WILL TRACK FARTHER TO  
THE SOUTH. AT THIS TIME THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS MONDAY EVENING  
AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, WITH A PROLONGED  
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. ANOTHER LOW DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE  
MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TUESDAY, AND WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW  
MOVES QUICKLY EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AGAIN, ON THE CURRENT  
TRACK THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS AREAS  
NORTH AND WEST, WITH LOWER IMPACTS TO AREAS EAST OF NEW YORK  
CITY, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT, AS HIGH PRESSURE  
REMAINS TO THE NORTH.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.  
THEN ANOTHER SOUTHERN SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE RIDGE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER  
SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEN HIGH PRESSURE  
RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WHILE  
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CREATING  
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD.  
 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
NW WINDS 17-22 KT WITH GUSTS REACHING NEAR 30-35 KT THIS  
AFTERNOON. SOME PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT CAN BE EXPECTED  
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS WILL LOWER WITHIN THE 20-25 KT  
RANGE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE GUSTS WILL PERSIST  
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT  
HOURS.  
 
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...  
 
THE 30 KT GUSTS COULD HOLD ON FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN  
ANTICIPATED.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
 
   
SUNDAY
 
VFR. WNW GUSTS 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY, NEAR 20KT FOR  
SUNDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT.   
MONDAY
 
MAINLY VFR, BUT MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING BY MONDAY EVENING INTO  
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW. NW-N UNDER 10 KT.   
TUESDAY
 
IFR, AT TIMES POSSIBLY LOWER, IN SNOW, MAINLY DURING THE  
DAY, WITH NE WINDS 10-12 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KT. IMPROVING  
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING.   
WEDNESDAY
 
VFR. N WINDS 5-10 KT.   
THURSDAY
 
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS 15-20G23-27KTS  
WITH CHANCE RA/SN.  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL WITH STRONG NW FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  
GALES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS, THE EASTERN SOUND  
AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS TODAY INTO SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE, SCA  
ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT  
FREEZING SPRAY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND WESTERN LI SOUND FOR  
A PERIOD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, GIVEN THE  
COMBINATION OF SUBFREEZING AIR TEMPERATURES, STRONG WINDS AND  
WAVE ACTION OVER THESE AREAS. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY  
MITIGATE THIS TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE WATERS.  
 
WINDS AND OCEAN SEAS WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BELOW SCA LEVELS  
BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.  
 
SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OCEAN SEAS 5  
TO 6 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH  
MARGINAL WIND GUSTS, AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING  
LOW PRESSURE.  
 
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN  
WATERS THURSDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH A LOW THAT IS  
EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO  
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ335-338-345.  
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...DW  
AVIATION...DJ  
 
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