879
FXUS61 KOKX 060529
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
129 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF AMENDMENTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
2) A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
TEMPERATURES THAT WERE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SETTLE BACK DOWN TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIR MASS ON WEDNESDAY, ALONG
WITH SUBSTANTIALLY MORE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 60S, WITH COOLEST SPOTS ALONG THE
COAST AND WARMER SPOTS FOR INLAND WESTERN AREAS. ANOTHER BRIEF
WARMUP MAY OCCUR TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LATEST NWP
AND AI GUIDANCE IS PUTTING OUT ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN ON
AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THE LOWER PORTION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE THUS LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THAT MAY RESULT IN A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER, BUT OVERALL
NOT EXPECTING ANY SURFACE BASED OR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. QPF
TOTALS HAVE DECREASED SOME OVER TIME AS NWP GUIDANCE APPEARS
TO BE PROGRESSING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY A BIT FASTER NOW TO THE
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THUS, THE BULK OF
THE RAIN TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE OF RAIN / SHOWERS INTO THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT
POP HAS GRADUALLY LOWERED OVER TIME, ESPECIALLY FARTHER WEST.
A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
SOUTH, BUT NWP AND AI CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS FEATURE. THUS ANY RAIN ON THURSDAY
SHOULD BE LIGHTER IN NATURE AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST WITH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SKIES ARE NOW EXPECTED
TO CLEAR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THIS MORNING AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
AREA TODAY.
VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 15-16Z, THEN MVFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR IN SHOWERS.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SSW 10-15KTS OVERNIGHT, WINDS THEN BECOME GUSTY AGAIN EARLY
TODAY, SW 20G25KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNEXPECTED AMDS ARE ANTICIPATED.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR OR LOWER.
FRIDAY: VFR. W-NW WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT, DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR.
SUNDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA COND, WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 35 KT THIS EVENING ON THE LONG
ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND ON THE OCEAN FROM SANDY HOOK TO
FIRE ISLAND INLET, WILL MORE OR LESS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NON-OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WED. OTHERWISE EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE EASTERN NON-OCEAN WATERS HAVING
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30-35 KT. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST LATER WED NIGHT INTO THU.
MARGINAL SCA COND ARE POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ331-332-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN/MW
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...GOODMAN/MW
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