963
FXUS61 KOKX 210036
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
836 PM EDT SAT APR 20 2019
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SUNDAY AND DEPARTS MONDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
JUST A FEW TWEAKS THIS UPDATE WITH RESPECT TO CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. VISIBILITIES HAVE WIDELY FLUCTUATED WITH DECREASE
IN WINDS AND PASSAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS, BUT ARE GOING BACK UP
AFTER BEEN BRIEFLY DOWN A MILE OR LESS.
THE AREAS OF FOG ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN SECTIONS WITH
VISIBILITIES AVERAGING A MILE OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FOG SITUATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FOR THESE FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS AS DEW POINTS HAVE
GONE UP A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO
INCREASE A BIT ON AVERAGE, SO THEREFORE HAVE THE AREAS OF FOG
GOING TO MORE PATCHY TYPE FOG BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT FOR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS.
A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST DRIFTS EAST TONIGHT, AS
SFC LOW WEAKENS. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
REMAINS, WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTING NORTHWARD AND PASSING
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
CONTINUES ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN LOCATIONS, AND A FEW MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THESE EASTERN LOCALES OVERNIGHT.
OVERALL THOUGH, MAIN AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN HAS ENDED, AND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER.
PERSISTENT YET DIMINISHING SFC WIND FLOW OVERALL WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT, WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE 50S,
EXCEPT A FEW UPPER 40S INLAND.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO PROG UPPER CUTOFF LOW DRIFTING
EAST DURING THE DAY, THEN MAKE A SLIGHT SOUTHEASTWARD WOBBLE,
WHICH WOULD PLACE IT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AT NIGHT, NEAR THE
CAROLINA/VA COAST. NAM A TAD QUICKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH A
SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
LOW LIKELY BEGINS TO GET STEERED TO THE NORTH AND WEST LATE AT
NIGHT.
AS FOR ANY SHOWERS, LOOKS SCT TO WIDELY SCT SUNDAY WITH PLENTY
OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND WEAK LIFT. HOWEVER, WITH UPPER COLD POOL
NEARBY, A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT TIMING STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION ON HOW QUICKLY
THEY MOVE BACK IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S SUNDAY, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
REACHING 70 WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER, ESPECIALLY IF A FEW MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. HOWEVER, WITH CUTOFF NEARBY
AND EXPECTED TEMPS ALOFT OF 4-6C, WILL BE TOUGH TO GET TOO MUCH
HIGHER THAN 70.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING TOO LOW, LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN UP A WEAK SURFACE LOW EARLY IN THE
PERIOD GOING INTO MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER FROM MANY OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE FEATURE TRACK, AND
THUS PLACEMENT OF QPF. THE NAM IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIP
AMOUNTS AND A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE SURFACE FEATURE ON MONDAY.
UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
LOWS OFTEN TEND TO UNDER PRODUCE IN TERMS OF QPF AFTER FOLLOWING
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENTS ON THE FRONT END, THEREFORE THINKING MORE
LIKE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH AT THIS POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL FINALLY GET A KICK INTO TUESDAY AND EJECT
NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD ENABLE SOME RIDGING TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST
DURING TUESDAY. SOME SUNSHINE LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT IT STAYS DRY. PERHAPS FAR NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS SEE A SHOWER EARLY IN THE MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD
BE DRY.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING APPEARS ON AVERAGE TO BE A TOUCH
SLOWER SO BACKED DOWN POPS A TOUCH TUESDAY EVENING AND THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AS IT APPROACHES FAR NW ZONES
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE. POPS THEN
INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. FOR NOW
THINKING THAT THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCE DO EXIST AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY DUE TO MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
PAYING THE REGION A VISIT DOWN TO OUR SOUTH. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
HOWEVER IS SUGGESTING THAT CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE BY LATE
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH STARTS TO
APPROACH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST TIMING. THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE EXACT TRACK DUE TO UPPER JET STREAM
INTERACTIONS WITH MUCH OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE FROM 12Z KEEPING THE
MAIN SURFACE FEATURE SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. THIS REALLY
WILL IMPACT THE NATURE OF THE PRECIP WITH RESPECT TO ONSHORE FLOW
VERSUS MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR MOVING UP
FROM THE SOUTH. IN ANY EVENT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY SATURDAY LEADING TO IMPROVING
WEATHER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE REGION,
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING,
MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS ON SUNDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR
KISP AND KGON AS WELL AS PERHAPS KBDR FOR TONIGHT AND NEAR KGON
FOR SUNDAY. WHILE THEY ARE CURRENTLY VFR, THEY COULD VERY WELL
GO BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT WITH MORE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR STILL
IN PLACE. MVFR IS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR KGON
FOR SUNDAY.
LLWS MAINLY LOCATED NEAR AND EAST OF KGON AND TWIN FORKS OF
LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING, EXITING TOTALLY OUT OF THE
FORECAST REGION BY MID EVENING. SE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 20 KT THIS EVENING, BUT GUSTS WILL BECOME MORE
OCCASIONAL. WINDS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10
KT OR LESS ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY
SHOWERS AND MVFR POSSIBLE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TERMINALS NORTH OF NYC MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
TUESDAY
MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR AT NIGHT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KSWF TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY
MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY
VFR.
MARINE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT, AND REMAIN 15
KT OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THESE WINDS THEN LIGHTEN
FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK.
ROUGH OCEAN SEAS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE, SO SCA ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE NON OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN SUB
SCA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY
DUE TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 6
FT. THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN RESULTING IN SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL COME DOWN SLIGHTLY LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO SEAS AT 4 TO 5 FT. SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH NO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND GUIDANCE, ONLY EXPECT TIDES TO
APPROACH OR REACH MINOR COASTAL THRESHOLDS FOR THE VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS OF SOUTHERN NASSAU AND SOUTHERN QUEENS, THE WESTERN SOUTH
SHORE BACK BAYS. PERSISTENT SWELL AND ROUGH SEAS ALONG WITH S/SE
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PILE WATER INTO THESE BAYS. ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THIS UPCOMING HIGH TIDE.
EQUIPMENT
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 (162.55 MHZ) REMAINS OFF
THE AIR.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JE/PW
NEAR TERM...JE/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JE/PW
HYDROLOGY...JE/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
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