217
FXUS61 KOKX 300259
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
959 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE AREA REMAINS BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING A LONG-LASTING COLD AIR MASS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN TO END THE WEEK. THEREAFTER, ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
* A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY FOR
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
* DRY AND COLD AIR FILTERS IN OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS SETS UP. SOME GUSTS IN THE NYC METRO AREA AND ALONG
THE COAST HAVE BEEN WALL OVER 50 MPH. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
FLURRIES MAKING IT DOWN INTO AREAS NW OF NYC GIVEN ROBUST LAKE
EFFECT BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN NY WITH A FETCH EXTENDING BACK
TO LAKE HURON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH.
* COLD AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WITH A COLD FRONT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM. THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, THOUGH IT MAY BE MORE CLOUDY THAN
NOT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG WNW FLOW ALLOWING FOR DEEP
MIXING AND DEVELOPMENT OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. A STRAY
SNOW SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ASIDE FROM THE WIND, THE MOST NOTICEABLE FEATURE WILL BE THE
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE COAST, WITH UPPER 20S
EXPECTED FOR THE INTERIOR. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S DURING THE DAY.
WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH TO BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT MAY REMAIN GUSTY WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE.
COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. COLD AND BRISK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 30S, AND LOWS AT
NIGHT IN THE TEENS FOR THE INTERIOR AND LOWER 20S FOR THE
COAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WHAT'S CHANGED: THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, AND THE NBM WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED FOR THIS UPCOMING COLD
AND DRY PERIOD.
* A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE
PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME MODERATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
* THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS LOOKS TO BE
AN ALL SNOW EVENT, WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN MIXING IN AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST WILL GENERATE STRONG W WINDS GUSTING TO 35-40 KT
MAINLY THROUGH THE EVENING PUSH AND POSSIBLY AGAIN DAYTIME TUE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. WINDS START TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
TUE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED. PEAK GUSTS 40-45 KT POSSIBLE
THROUGH ABOUT 07Z AND AGAIN DAYTIME TUE, MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. W WINDS 15-20G25-30KT EARLY, DIMINISHING TO
15G20-25KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. W WINDS G20-25KT.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN, MAINLY EARLY. NW WINDS
G15-20KT.
FRIDAY: VFR. W WINDS G15-20KT.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GALES EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH TUE WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF
40-45 KT. THE OCEAN WATERS MAY HANG ONTO GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TUE NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING TO SCA. SCA
COND THEN LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT LEAST WED
NIGHT, AND FROM TUE NIGHT INTO MUCH OF DAYTIME WED FOR THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.
SEAS OVER 5 FT LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO DAYTIME THU, AND
POSSIBLY INTO THU NIGHT-FRI OUT EAST.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-
176>179.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...DBR/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...DBR/MW
HYDROLOGY...DBR/MW
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