591
FXUS61 KOKX 302200
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
600 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT
LIFTS UP INTO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY WILL
SETTLE OFFSHORE BY LATE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA WITH BAND OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LONG
ISLAND. INTENSITY OF THE RAIN HAS DECREASED OVERALL SINCE
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE ALSO COME DOWN A BIT AS THE
LINE HAS WORKED EAST, LIKELY FROM THE RAIN STABILIZING THE LOWER
LEVELS A BIT AND LLJ SHIFTING TO THE EAST. THE CONVECTIVE LINE
SHOULD CONTINUE WORKING EAST OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE THE TRIPLE
POINT LOW MOVES OVERHEAD AND SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS LIKELY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST. WINDS THEN PICK UP OUT OF
THE W AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE REGION AVERAGES A WIDESPREAD 1.5-2.5 INCHES BY THIS TIME,
WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES POSSIBLE .
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR 50 IN NYC AND INTO THE 40S
ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WIND PICK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW DEEPENS
WHILE MOVING OUT OF NEW ENGLAND INTO ERN CANADA. STRONGEST WINDS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN/AROUND NYC FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH
SOME SUSTAINED VALUES CLOSE TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH, AND
LOWER VALUES INLAND BUT STILL GUSTING UP TO 35-40 MPH. ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 12 NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT,
INCLUDING IMPACT ON HALLOWEEN IN AREAS TO THE NORTH/WEST WHERE
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER.
ON SATURDAY, THERE WILL STILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING STRONG LOW AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. GUSTS 25-30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY, WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES CLOSER TO THE NYC METRO AREA AND THE COAST. THE
GRADIENT BEGINS RELAXING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH, WITH ANY LINGERING GUSTS ENDING ENDING AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S BOTH FRI/SAT. LOW TEMPS FRI NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, THEN A LITTLE COOLER
SAT NIGHT, 35-40 INLAND WITH SOME FROST, AND 40-45 FOR THE NYC
METRO AREA AND THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TO END THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
* MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT PASSAGE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT.
* TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND THE SURFACE WILL BRING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL MUCH WEAKER COMPARED TO SATURDAY DUE TO A RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS, DRY AIR, AND WEAK WINDS WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S INLAND AND
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. SOME MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS
IS LIKELY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING OFFSHORE.
HIGHS MAY RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT, THE MODELING CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE
HANDLING OF THE INTERACTION OF A DAMPENING SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE WAVES FAR ENOUGH APART THAT
ANY LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM PASSES WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED A LOW CHANCE POP DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
PATTERN.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING RETURNING INTO WEDNESDAY. SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS ARE EITHER MVFR OR IFR WITH
SOME CONDITIONS BELOW IFR. THERE IS A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING
ACROSS THE NYC TERMINALS, THIS LINE IS ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH
AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. BEHIND THIS LINE, EXPECT THE WIND
GUSTS TO DIMINISH A BIT AND POSSIBLY COME TO AN END. ALSO, ANY
LLWS SHOULD COME TO AN END. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BACK
TO MVFR BEHIND THIS LINE AS WELL. IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS
FOR THIS LIKE TO REACH THE FAR EASTERN TERMINALS. WE SHOULD SEE
DRIER CONDITIONS START TO FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE LINE.
WINDS 25KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT, WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEHIND A
LINE OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THIS LIKE HAS ALREADY MOVED ACROSS
KEWR AND KTEB WHERE GUSTS HAVE TEMPORARILY COME TO AN ENDED.
THE LINE IS OVER KJFK AND KLGA, AND WOULD EXPECT GUSTS TO END
THERE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FURTHER EAST, EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS BECOMING MORE
OCCASIONAL OR BRIEFLY ENDING FOR A PERIOD. WINDS BECOME SW TO W
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 25-30KT. TIMING OF THE DIMINISHING AND
SHIFTING WINDS IS UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON THE TIMING AND TRACK
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER ON
FRIDAY MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS FOR TIMING AND CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: VFR. W WINDS 15-25KT, G30-40KT, HIGHEST ALONG
THE COAST.
SATURDAY: VFR. W WINDS G20-30KT.
SUNDAY: VFR.
MONDAY: VFR EARLY. CHANCE OF MVFR LATE. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE IN
THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY: MVFR EARLY, THEN IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
E-SE GALES WERE OCCURRING ON THE GREAT SOUTH BAY, EASTERN
OCEAN, AND THE WRN/CENTRAL SOUND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND
NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE. THESE WINDS SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WINDS LULL FOR A
PERIOD TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE W LATE TONIGHT.
GALES SHOULD RETURN TO ALL WATERS BY SAT AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT, AND FOR SIMPLICITY'S SAKE REPLACED ANY GALE
WATCHES WITH GALE WARNINGS, AND EXTENDED THOSE WARNINGS IN TIME
TO RUN THROUGH FRI NIGHT ON ALL WATERS DESPITE THE LULL, AND
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING ON THE OCEAN.
HYDROLOGY
THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE NYC METRO AND HUDSON
RIVER. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A CONVECTIVE
LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES WORKING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT. AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 1.5-2.5 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD NUISANCE FLOODING LIKELY. LOCAL AMTS
AS HIGH AS 3-4 INCHES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS OCCURRED WITH HIGH TIDE
IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE LOWER NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN MINOR FLOODING UP THE
HUDSON RIVER WITH THE PIERMONT GAUGE WELL INTO THE MINOR
CATEGORY. THE STRONGEST WINDS COINCIDED WITH HIGH TIDE ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURGE. LOCALLY MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRED
ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS/BACK BAYS OF NASSAU AND
WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE
THIS EVENING.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING
ACROSS COASTAL FAIRFIELD AND COASTAL WESTCHESTER. LOCALLY MINOR
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL BRONX AND ALONG EAST END OF
LONG ISLAND.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGH TIDE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AS WATER
MAY NOT RECEDE QUICK ENOUGH WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WESTERLY.
NO ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
BREAKING WAVES OF 5-7 FT ALONG THE OCEANFRONT WILL RESULT IN
BEACH EROSION FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEANFRONT ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND. MINOR DAMAGE TO DUNE STRUCTURES IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR CTZ005>012.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ009.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ071.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072-
074-075-178-179.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
106-108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-
340-345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...BG/DS
NEAR TERM...BG/DS
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV/DS
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