825
FXUS61 KOKX 101417
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1017 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND THREAT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND POINTS
N&W. LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. INCREASINGLY WARM
AND MUGGY, WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
TODAY.
2) ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES.
3) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BUILD FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY,
WITH A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION,
WHILE A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, THIS WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT (4PM-10PM) AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
AREN'T EXPECTED, A FEW THUNDERSTORM COULD BECOME STRONG TO
BRIEFLY SEVERE, WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN A DECENTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MARGINALLY STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INVERTED V SOUNDING.
FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOOKS VERY LIMITED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PWATS, ISO TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM
COVERAGE, AND QUICKER ANTICIPATED STORM MOVEMENT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL COME CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES IN THE NYC METRO AND
NE NJ WITH MOST OTHER SPOTS REACHING THE UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY,
WITH MAX HEAT INDICES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
GOOD AGREEMENT IN MEAN UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE NE US THIS
WEEKEND AND OFFSHORE ON MONDAY, WHILE AT THE SURFACE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND
AND OVERHEAD BY MONDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE PROXIMITY OF A WEAK SURFACE WAVE THAT
PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BE THE
FORCING MECHANISM FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY. HI-RES CAMS DIFFER IN COVERAGE AND TIMING OF ANY
SHOWERY ACTIVITY WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH COMFORTABLY LOWER TDS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HEART OF CANADIAN AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BUILDING CENTRAL US HEAT RIDGE EXPANDING
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING
FOR BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOCALLY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE HOTTEST DAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY, FOLLOWED BY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY. THIS IS ADDRESSED IN A PROB30 GROUP FOR ALL BUT
KGON, WHERE THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE.
W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BACK SOME IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAY EVEN BECOME WSW AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING,
BECOMING LIGHT NORTHERLY TOWARD 06Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR THE TIMING THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A MODEST W/SW FLOW OF 10-15KT.
SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT. SUB- SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE WATERS.
SUB-SCA EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.
RIP CURRENTS:
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PERSISTS TODAY, DUE TO A
MIXTURE OF 2 FT S WIND WAVE AND LINGERING 1-3 FT SE/E SWELLS.
LOW TO MODERATE RIP RISK FOR SATURDAY WITH 1-2 FT SOUTHERLY
SWELLS, AND 1-2 FT SE/E WIND WAVES.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NV/MW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...NV/MW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page