531
FXUS61 KOKX 251858
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
258 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND PUSHES OFFSHORE INTO THIS
EVENING. A WEAK SECONDARY FRONT PIVOTS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY ALLOWS FOR ADDITIONAL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY TRACK THROUGH THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO THIS EVENING.
A BIT HUMID AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S, AND
RADAR OBSERVATIONS AND A COUPLE MPING REPORTS INDICATE WIDELY
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN AROUND ACROSS SOUTHERN CT OR LI,
BUT MOST SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
BEHIND THE FROPA, DRIER AIR IS PUNCHING IN, WITH DEW PTS AT NYC
TERMINALS FALLING 10 OR 15 DEGREES, ALREADY DOWN INTO THE MID 40S AT
KLGA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME DIURNAL CU, SKIES ARE LARGELY
CLEARING OUT BEHIND IT AS WELL, HELPING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID 80S, OR SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. DEEP
MIXING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO PRODUCING 20 TO 25 MPH GUSTS AS
THE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY, AND THESE SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING.
COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN TONIGHT, WITH A NOTICEABLE
DROP IN HUMIDITY FOR AREAS THAT HAVEN'T YET SEEN IT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE NW, PERHAPS GOING CALM AT TIMES WITH AN OVERALL
WEAK SYNOPTIC GRADIENT. GIVEN THE LIGHTER FLOW AND PREDOMINANTLY
CLEAR SKIES, EXPECT A COOLER NIGHT THAN RECENT ONES, FALLING
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND OUTLYING LOCALES, AND LOW
TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS, WITH SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL US BUILDING EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A DRIER, BIT COOLER, AIR MASS USHERS IN TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DEW PTS FALL FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON MONDAY,
DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S, OFFERING A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE AND
PLEASANT FEEL TO THE AIR. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOP OUT INTO
THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S FOR MOST, JUST ABOUT NEAR NORMAL FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR. DIURNAL HEATING AND COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD
YIELD A FAIR AMOUNT OF CU DEVELOPMENT BY THE AFTERNOON, AND
INCREASED SKY COVER OVER NBM MORE IN LINE WITH HI RES GUIDANCE.
ALSO LOWERED DEW PTS A GOOD 5 DEGREES OR MORE GIVEN THE VERY
WELL MIXED BL ABOVE 700 MB, AND EXPECT A FEW GUSTS FROM TIME TO
TIME TOWARD 20 MPH.
WEAK SECONDARY FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY,
REINFORCING THE AIR MASS, AND PERHAPS LEADING TO A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY. A FEW
OUTLYING LOCALES COULD SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE UPPER 40S
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AN UPR TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WED AND THU. DESPITE THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES, LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS ATTM. THE MODELING IN THE GFS, NAM, ECMWF AND
NBM ARE DRY.
CHANCES FOR SHWRS INCREASE THU NGT AS STRONG SHRTWV ENERGY BEGINS TO
REACH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN H5 LOW TRACKING ACROSS ON/QC. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SLOW MOVING, AND IS MODELED BY THE 12Z GFS
TO PASS ON FRI. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS SLOWER, ADDING A DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. THE NBM NEVERTHELESS IS CLOSER TO THE FASTER GFS, AND
STUCK WITH THIS FOR THE FCST. CHANCES FOR SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
WITH THE FROPA.
THE FRONT CLEARS OUT ON SAT, BRINGING COOL AND DRY WX THRU LABOR
DAY. IF THE FRONT SLOWS, THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHWRS ON SAT,
PARTICULARLY EARLY. AS OF NOW THERE ARE ONLY SOME 15-20 POPS FOR ERN
AREAS PER THE NBM. TEMPS BLW CLIMO, WITH THE NBM FOLLOWED. SOME OF
THE COLDER INTERIOR SPOTS COULD SEE LOWS DROP INTO THE UPR 40S SAT
AND SUN NGT.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE SW ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.
MAINLY A VFR FORECAST WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS EAST
OF NYC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO, CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER
FOR THOSE SAME TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BE SSW TO W WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NYC AND
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS. HYBRID SEABREEZES LIKELY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE NW THIS EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WINDS MAY VARY BETWEEN SW AND W THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY AT KJFK DUE TO THE COLD FRONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY - THURSDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY SWELLS TODAY WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT HERE UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY. SEAS FALL BACK
UNDER 5 FT TUESDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS AND WAVES THEN EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THIS WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS INTO THIS EVE. WAVES IN THE 2-4 FT
RANGE ON TUE. A MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN FORECAST WITH NW FLOW IN THE
MRNG FAVORING STEEPER WAVES, AND WAVES LESS IN THE AFTN WHEN WINDS
ARE MORE FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR WED.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page