452
FXUS61 KOKX 261500
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1100 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END, WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
2) PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH AN UNSETTLED, COOL PATTERN IN
PLACE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
SPRAWLING UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY LATER TODAY, ALBEIT SLOWLY, OFF THE
COAST OF MA. RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING, AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ALSO PULLS EAST. KOKX 88D
AS OF EARLY MORNING SHOWING RAIN ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE FROM NYC ON NORTH AND WEST, WITH A SOLID BATCH STILL WORKING
THROUGH CENTRAL LI AND SOUTHERN CT. ACCORDING TO RECENT NYS MESONET
AND MICRONET STATIONS ALONG WITH LOCAL ASOS, A WIDESPREAD 1.25" -
1.5" OF RAINFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE
EVENT WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN TO GO.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE/CAMS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT RAIN BECOMES LIGHTER
AROUND DAYBREAK AND ENDS COMPLETELY ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS
WELL BY MIDDAY, WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND SUN
RETURNING BY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXIT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DEPICTING A WELL MIXED PBL BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME E/NE WIND GUSTS 20-25MPH INTO
LATER AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z AND WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE HIGH BUILDS IN. UNDER CLEAR
AND NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS, LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S CWA WIDE. SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, WHERE RADIATIVE
COOLING IS MAXIMIZED.
KEY MESSAGE 2
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUCH AS GEFS/EC-AIFS ETC. CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE ANOMALOUSLY LOW H5 HEIGHTS WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
EAST COAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE.
THE MEAN TROUGH MAY END UP CUTTING OFF NEARBY INTO LATE WEEK WITH
STRONG BLOCKING SOUTH OF GREENLAND, KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
RAIN AROUND ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATES.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO
TONIGHT.
VFR, WITH BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS UNTIL
16Z/17Z.
WINDS WILL BE NE/ENE 9-14 KT. ANY GUSTS THAT OCCUR WILL BE THIS
MORNING, AND MORE OCCASIONAL, SO MOST TERMINALS GUST WERE
REMOVED. WINDS DROP BELOW 10 KT BY THE EVENING. TONIGHT, WINDS
WILL BE 5 KT OR LESS FROM THE NORTH WITH SOME SITES GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. TOMORROW, NE 8-11 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS TODAY MAY BE LESS FREQUENT.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. NW G15-20KT
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TODAY. 25 KT GUSTS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS, AND THE SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED HERE.
WHILE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE STILL AROUND 5 FT AT TIMES, AND SCAS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE WATERS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
THEN SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO TUESDAY
WITH A PERSISTENT NE FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY LINGER AOA 5
FT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JP/DBR
AVIATION...BR/MET
MARINE...JP/DBR
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