012
FXUS61 KOKX 131057
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
657 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2020
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. WITH FORECAST DETAILS DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THIS BOUNDARY, THIS LEADS TO A CHALLENGING FORECAST EVEN IN THE
NEAR TERM.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS HAVING DISSIPATED AND MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING BEFORE ATTENTION TURNS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AND WHERE THAT CONVECTION WILL
BE LOCATED.
WHILE INSTABILITY BUILDS AREA-WIDE INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE PER THE NAM, A NUMBER OF
COMPLICATING FACTORS EXIST THAT WILL LIKELY SERVE TO LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AT LEAST PART OF THE REGION.
FIRST, THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
REMAINING BACK ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. SECOND, THE ATMOSPHERE
DRIES OUT CONSIDERABLY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
FALLING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. BOTH OF THESE SHOULD SERVE TO
LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION LIKELY CONFINED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. WITH
CONVECTION APPEARING TO FOCUS EAST OF NEW YORK CITY, THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT IS REDUCED, AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LONG
ISLAND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S, A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JULY.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES AGAIN TODAY DUE TO CONTINUED LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY
SWELL.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
THE FRONT DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 60S IN OUTLYING AREAS NORTH OF NEW YORK CITY TO
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE.
ON TUESDAY, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH, PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. OTHERWISE, THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA, WITH FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, IN THE MID 80S.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON TUESDAY AS LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL
CONTINUES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
AS THE HIGH AND RIDGE DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND EXPECT A RETURN TO A MORE WET AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND PULLS NORTH GULF
MOISTURE INTO NEW YORK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.70
INCHES COULD FUEL HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY.
TIMING OF THE TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
BEFORE BEFORE SLIDING EAST THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND CROSSES THE REGION
ON TUESDAY.
VFR FORECAST OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE WEAK FRONT STALLS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR TSRA APPEARS TO
BE EAST OF THE HUDSON, POTENTIALLY KLGA/KHPN/KBDR, IN VICINITY
OF WEAK FRONT. WEST OF THE HUDSON (KEWR/KTEB/KSWF), IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT, CHANCE FOR TSRA SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED. LIMITED
TSRA THREAT WINDOW FOR KGON AND KISP AS SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY
PUSH THE THREAT NORTH BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
W/SW WINDS LESS THAN 7KT, EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
W/WSW 8-12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEST OF THE WEAK FRONT
(KEWR/KTEB/KSWF) AND POTENTIALLY KLGA/KHPN. MEANWHILE S/SW
WINDS 8-12 KT FOR SOUTH COASTAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS, WITH A
VEERING TO WSW FOR EVENING PUSH AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT W
FLOW TONIGHT.
..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: S/SW WINDS 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING PUSH.
THE AFTERNOON KJFK HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR TSRA BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. W
GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING PUSH.
THE AFTERNOON KLGA HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: W GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING PUSH.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: W GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR TSRA BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z.
KISP TAF COMMENTS: LOW PROB FOR TSRA BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. W/NW WIND ON
TUE, E/NE WIND ON WED.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY
MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. WHILE SEAS MAY
BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 5 FEET AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY
SWELL CONTINUES.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE OCEAN SEAS FALL BELOW 5 FEET ON TUESDAY, THEY
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA-CRITERIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY COULD RESULT IN MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
EQUIPMENT
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 (162.55 MHZ) IS UNDERGOING
ITS FINAL STAGES OF TESTING, AND IS OPERATING AT FULL POWER.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SYNOPSIS...FEB/DJ
NEAR TERM...FEB
SHORT TERM...FEB
LONG TERM...FEB/DJ
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...FEB/DJ
HYDROLOGY...FEB/DJ
EQUIPMENT...
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