559  
FXUS61 KOKX 091937  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
337 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TODAY AND THEN WILL REMAIN  
OVER THE AREA INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL  
DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTH TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL  
THEN MEANDER NEAR THE REGION ON MONDAY, BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA  
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
 
 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE  
NORTHWEST TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT  
AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE GUSTY N WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING  
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS  
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING, ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS  
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. CAA FROM THE NORTHERLY FLOW  
EARLIER IN THE DAY, A DRIER AIRMASS, AND A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER  
WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BRINGING  
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON.  
 
INLAND AREAS TO THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S,  
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 20S. FREEZE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THESE  
INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST, MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE,  
WITH THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE HAVING LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO  
MIDDLE 40S, COURTESY OF OCEAN TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 60S. ANY  
COOLER SPOTS NOT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE MAY DEVELOP SOME  
FROST TONIGHT, WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHERN COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ. THERE  
IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME FROST ACROSS THE LI PINE BARRENS WITH  
TEMPERATURES AROUND 32 DEGREES, BUT NOT ENOUGH OF THE ZONE FOR ANY  
HEADLINE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY. GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH A GRADUALLY  
SHIFTING WIND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO  
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S, STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE  
SE COMPONENT TO THE WIND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST OF  
THE AREA WILL ALLOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AND  
DEW POINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE LOW 40S. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIALLY SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FRIDAY  
NIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN THURSDAY  
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH WARMER  
SPOTS NEAR THE NYC METRO AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A  
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THIS  
WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A GRADUALLY INCREASING SE/E  
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER  
60S TO NEAR 70. SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH  
TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE STORM FOR SUN INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK, WITH SIGNIFICANT CSTL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.  
 
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW PRES DEEPENING AND TRACKING NWD  
TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUN, WHILE HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER ERN CANADA.  
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING, TRACK, AND STRENGTH CHALLENGES, THIS  
PATTERN LENDS CONFIDENCE TO THE WIND FIELD DUE TO THE RELATIVE  
POSITIONS OF THE HIGH AND LOW. AS A RESULT, ISSUED HIGH WIND AND  
CSTL FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE AREA.  
 
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SRN/ERN PORTIONS  
OF THE CWA AND THIS IS WHERE THE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. OTHER AREAS  
WILL STILL BE WINDY, BUT LIKELY ADVY LVLS OR LOWER ATTM. IF THE  
STORM TRACK TRENDS WWD, THIS WOULD EXPAND THE WIND FIELD WWD AS  
WELL, BUT MAY LIMIT PEAK GUSTS IF THE LOW ENDS UP WEAKER. WILL  
CONTINUE TO FCST A MAX GUST TO AROUND 60 MPH DURING THE PEAK OF THE  
STORM BASED ON 50KT BL WINDS IN THE GFS. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN  
PERSISTENT.  
 
DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO THE NBM, BLENDING IN THE HIGHER 06Z CONSALL  
FOR WINDS SAT NGT THRU MON OVER LAND, AND MANUALLY INCREASING GUSTS  
THERE ABV THE NBM AS WELL.  
 
THE RAIN DEVELOPS FROM S TO N ON SUN. THE NAM HOWEVER IS COMPLETELY  
DRY UNTIL EVE. STUCK WITH THE NBM WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE FASTER GFS  
AS IT IS A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE SLOWER NAM.  
RIGHT NOW THE WINDOW FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO BE SUN AFTN AND  
EVE, ALTHOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE DUE TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK, TIMING,  
AND INTENSITY OF THE SYS.  
 
IT REMAINS WINDY ON MON, BUT THE GRADIENT RELAXES SO PEAK GUSTS ARE  
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH. STILL GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH VERY POSSIBLE.  
IF THE LOW GETS CLOSE ENOUGH, LIGHTER WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH  
THE STRONGEST FLOW GENERALLY ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN OCCLUDED LOW.  
THE GFS IS STARTING TO SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY, BUT THE ECMWF HAS  
COME IN SOLIDLY S, KEEPING THE AREA IN A STRONG E/NE FLOW.  
 
THE STORM WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY ON TUE, SO LESSENING RAIN CHANCES  
AND DECREASING WINDS, ALTHOUGH PROBABLY STILL BREEZY AT THE COASTS.  
 
NO CHANGES TO THE NBM WED AND THU.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
N WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, AND THEN  
BECOME N-NNE LESS THAN 10 KT TOWARDS AND JUST AFTER SUNSET. WINDS  
DIMINISH A BIT MORE OVERNIGHT, CLOSER TO 5 KT OR LESS AT OUTLYING  
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME E TOWARDS LATE MORNING AT MANY  
TERMINALS, THEN MAINLY SE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...  
 
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.  
 
   
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
 
 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY: VFR.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: CHANCE OF RAIN. NE WINDS G20KT LATE.  
 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: RAIN LIKELY. MVFR COND EXPECTED, IFR COND  
POSSIBLE IN BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN. NE WINDS G40KT AT KISP, G30-35KT  
AT THE NYC METRO/CT TERMINALS, G25-30KT AT KSWF.  
 
TUESDAY: SUB VFR TO START WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, POSSIBLY  
IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. N TO NNE WINDS SUSTAINED AT  
10-15 KT, G20-25KT.  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES  
OVERHEAD. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
WINDS INCREASE SAT NGT, PARTICULARLY ON THE OCEAN, AHEAD OF  
DEVELOPING LOW PRES. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN.  
WINDS INCREASE TO POSSIBLY STORM FORCE FOR SUN AND SUN NGT. A STORM  
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE HARBOR, WHERE A GALE  
WATCH WAS ISSUED. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO GALE ON MON. SEAS  
LIKELY TO PEAK AROUND 20FT ON THE OCEAN WITH THE SYS. WINDS AND SEAS  
SUBSIDE FURTHER MON NGT AND TUE AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO  
TRACK AWAY FROM THE REGION.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 1  
TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS  
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BEING A LONG DURATION RAINFALL AND RECENT DRY  
CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
TOTAL WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND POSSIBLY JUST  
MEET MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS FRIDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE  
CYCLE FOR THE NASSAU COUNTY SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND S FAIRFIELD.  
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  
 
THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR  
COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION SUNDAY AND MONDAY, VIA THE COMBO  
OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND SURGE GENERATED BY STRONG NE FLOW.  
BREAKING WAVES AROUND 10 FT POSSIBLE BASED ON 20+ FT SEAS OFFSHORE.  
ALTHOUGH EXACT IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND  
INTENSITY OF A DEEP LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE REGION, CONFIDENCE IN  
THE EVENT WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WATCH FOR THE  
ENTIRE COAST.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR  
CTZ005>008.  
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY  
AFTERNOON FOR CTZ009>012.  
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR  
CTZ010>012.  
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR  
NYZ067>070.  
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY  
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.  
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY  
NIGHT FOR NYZ075-078>081-176>179.  
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR  
NJZ002.  
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY  
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ006-106-108.  
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR  
NJZ004-103.  
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR  
ANZ331-332-335-340-345-350-353-355.  
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR  
ANZ338.  
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT  
FOR ANZ350-353-355.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MW  
NEAR TERM...MW  
SHORT TERM...MW  
LONG TERM...JMC  
AVIATION...JE  
MARINE...JMC/MW  
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MW  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
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