192
FXUS61 KOKX 220541
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1241 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT
ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN INTENSE COASTAL STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL AND
STRONG WINDS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.
2) POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND DUNE EROSION/OVERWASHES SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
3) LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING MID NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
40S BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW MELT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
MAJOR WINTER STORM IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO CONVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION,
TRACK, AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP OFF ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY MORNING AND
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING AS IT
SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH-NORTH EAST TOWARDS THE 40N/70W BOOKMARK.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MINOR FLUCTUATION WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ON
THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW AND WHETHER IT PASSES JUST INSIDE,
OVER, OR JUST EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER, LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE OVERALL IMPACTS WOULD OCCUR IN THESE SCENARIOS. ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS THAT WERE PASSING MUCH FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH A GRAZE
SCENARIO ARE CONTINUING TO LOOK LESS AND LESS LIKELY. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS PRESSURES RAPIDLY FALLING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LOW DEEPENING AROUND 970 MB AS IT NEARS THE BENCHMARK. SOME
GUIDANCE EVEN HAS IT A FEW MB LOWER. THE LOW OCCLUDES AND GETS
CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW WITH DEEPENING ENDING AND THE LOW
BEGINNING TO LEVEL OFF AS IT LIFTS NE TO OFF THE CAPE MONDAY
NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW, OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT STEADIER SNOW SHOULD BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING SO LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT FROM ANY SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE
PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES MID TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BEGIN MORE EFFICIENTLY ON COLDER SURFACES,
AND THEN ROADWAYS SUNDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
FREEZING. SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IN THE MORNING,
THE START TIME OF THE BLIZZARD WARNINGS AND WINTER STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN MOVED TO 1PM SUNDAY. THIS MAY STILL BE A BIT
EARLY, BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS THE EVENING
APPROACHES.
THE EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE WILL AID IN THE
EXPANSION OF SNOW WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW CENTER. BANDS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL ROTATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE CYCLONE
RAPIDLY DEEPENS. THESE BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITHING THE COMMA HEAD OF THE STORM
(TYPICALLY TO THE N AND W OF THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE). THESE
LINGERING BANDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM IS NOW GETTING WITHIN THE RANGE OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE AND WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE NOTABLE TRENDS OF AN UPTICK
IN QPF. THESE CHANGES MAY MOVE AROUND A BIT IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS, BUT OVERALL THE TREND SUPPORTS INCREASING SNOWFALL TOTALS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TOTAL SNOWFALL RANGES FROM 12-16
INCHES INLAND AND S CT TO AROUND 15-20 INCHES CLOSER TO THE
COAST.
THERE IS A REASONABLE WORSE CASE FOR AROUND 2 FT+ OF SNOW. THE
CHANCE FOR THESE AMOUNTS MAY BE CLOSER TO THE COAST/LONG ISLAND,
BUT CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE THIS OUT EVEN INLAND IF HEAVIER BANDS
SHIFT FURTHER NW AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER. THERE ARE STILL
SEVERAL ECMWF-EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT ARE VERY LIKELY SKEWING
THE OVERALL DISTRIBUTION OF THE PROBABILISTIC SNOW. THESE
MEMBERS HAVE STARTED TRENDING UP WITH THE LATEST 12Z EPS,
LENDING MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOW END AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY TO
BE CORRECT.
INTENSE DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM INCLUDING STRONG
DIFLUENCE AND INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS ALL LEAD TO HEAVY BANDING
POTENTIAL AND HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING APPEARS TO SIT RIGHT ON TOP OF THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP
THE BANDS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A WHILE AND GENERALLY SNOW
THEMSELVES OUT AS THE STORM STARTS DEPARTING.
SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING, BECOMING 1-2" PER HOUR
WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. SEVERAL MAJOR
WINTER STORMS IN RECENT HISTORY HAVE PRODUCED LARGE HEAVY SNOW
BANDS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WITH RATES LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 4"
PER HOUR. THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE TYPE OF STORM BEING
DEPICTED BY THE MODELS.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE HEAVIER
BANDING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST YET, BUT CANNOT RULED THIS POTENTIAL OUT.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG WITH THIS STORM. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ALONG THE COAST 40-60KT WITH
DECENT MIXING. COASTAL LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS UP 45
TO 55 MPH, POSSIBLY EVEN STRONGER ACROSS FAR EASTERN LI AND
SOUTHEAST CT UP TO 60 OR 65 MPH. INLAND AREAS WILL BE WEAKER,
BUT COULD STILL SEE FREQUENT GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH. THE HIGHEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.
THE BLIZZARD WARNINGS WERE EXPANDED TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
CONSIDERABLE FALLING SNOW, STRONG WINDS, AND POOR VISIBILITY
WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST. NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
OUTSIDE THE BLIZZARD WARNING.
THE SNOWFALL CHARACTER WILL START WET AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME
DRIER AS THE EVENT MATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RATIOS
LIKELY AVERAGE AROUND 10:1 EARLY ON, POSSIBLY LOWER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BEFORE AVERAGING AROUND 11-13:1 OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
STRENGTHENING E-NE WINDS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE
A SURGE OF 2.5-3.5 FT, PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
LOCALLY MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BACK BAYS OF WESTERN
SUFFOLK AND SRN NASSAU, PECONIC BAY, AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND
SOUND, AND WIDESPREAD MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE FLOODING IN NY
HARBOR AND JAMAICA BAY, THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER, AND ERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND. THE MAIN HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN IS SUNDAY
NIGHT. AREAS OF DUNE EROSION ARE LIKELY, WITH LOCALIZED
OVERWASHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHFRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE
MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE, WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
LIMITING IMPACTS SOMEWHAT TO MINOR/LOCALLY MODERATE CATEGORIES.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THERE MAY BE A FEW FRONTAL SYSTEMS THAT MOVE ACROSS IN A MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE COME UP A
BIT LATE IN THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
TEMPERATURES THEN TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOWMELT EACH DAY AND WITH MOSTLY SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING, SUBSEQUENT
REFREEZE OF SNOW MELT.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
**HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY**
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. A STRONG
NOR'EASTER THEN IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
VFR EARLY TONIGHT. CEILINGS THEN LOWER TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CIGS THEN LOWER TO IFR THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. ANY SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES DON'T PICK UP UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STARTED
LIFR CONDITIONS AT 21Z FOR NYC TERMINALS.
WINDS VEER NE TONIGHT AT 5-10 KT. WINDS INCREASE TO 15 KT BY
18Z, THEN AROUND 20-25 KT WITH G30KT BY 21Z SUNDAY. LLWS
LIKELY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW ONSET COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 6Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT: IFR/LIFR WITH VSBY 1/4 AT TIMES IN +SN. NE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH G35-40 KT WITH UP TO 45 KT AT KISP AND KGON. ISOLATED
50-55KT KT GUSTS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KISP AND KGON. LIKELY LLWS
WITH 50-55KT AT 2KFT.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN SNOW. N WINDS G30-40 KT.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE.
TOTAL FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS (SUNDAY-MONDAY)
KSWF: 12 INCHES
KHPN AND KBDR: 16 INCHES
KGON: 18 INCHES
NYC TERMINALS: 17-19 INCHES
KISP: 20 INCHES
KISP: 20 INCHES
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO STORM WARNINGS AND NOW
INCLUDE THE GREAT SOUTH BAY. THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
A GALE WARNING.
A MAJOR COASTAL STORM WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST SUNDAY, RAPIDLY DEEPENING SOME 25 TO 30 MB BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE LOW DROP TO AROUND 970MB AS IT REACHES THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK MONDAY MORNING. GALES AND STORM FORCE GUSTS
ARE INCREASING LIKELY WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 20 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND 5 TO 10 FT ON LI SOUND (HIGHEST EASTERN SOUND).
CONDITIONS RAMP DOWN TO SCA ON ALL WATERS FOR MON NIGHT.
SCA POTENTIAL REMAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ON THE OCEAN, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ON THE NON-WATERS WILL HAVE SCA POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS TUESDAY AND MAINLY BELOW SCA WIND GUSTS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
WITH THE POTENTIAL MAJOR SNOWSTORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOWFALL RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR THE CLIMATE SITES:
SUN 2/22 MON 2/23
CENTRAL PARK, NY: 6.0/2008 4.8/1972
LAGUARDIA, NY: 6.4/2008 4.1/1972
JOHN F KENNEDY, NY: 6.9/2008 6.1/1987
NEWARK, NJ: 6.8/2008 4.1/1987
ISLIP, NY: 5.5/2008 6.7/1987
BRIDGEPORT, CT: 7.0/2008 2.6/1987
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
FOR CTZ005>012.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST MONDAY
FOR CTZ009-010.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
MONDAY FOR CTZ011-012.
NY...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
FOR NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST MONDAY
FOR NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ072-074-075-178.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ067-068.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ079-081.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ080-179.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ335-338.
DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...DS
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