963  
FXUS61 KOKX 210036  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
836 PM EDT SAT APR 20 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SUNDAY AND DEPARTS MONDAY. WEAK HIGH  
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A COLD  
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL  
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE  
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
 
 
JUST A FEW TWEAKS THIS UPDATE WITH RESPECT TO CURRENT  
OBSERVATIONS. VISIBILITIES HAVE WIDELY FLUCTUATED WITH DECREASE  
IN WINDS AND PASSAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS, BUT ARE GOING BACK UP  
AFTER BEEN BRIEFLY DOWN A MILE OR LESS.  
 
THE AREAS OF FOG ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN SECTIONS WITH  
VISIBILITIES AVERAGING A MILE OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR  
THE FOG SITUATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING,  
ESPECIALLY FOR THESE FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS AS DEW POINTS HAVE  
GONE UP A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO  
INCREASE A BIT ON AVERAGE, SO THEREFORE HAVE THE AREAS OF FOG  
GOING TO MORE PATCHY TYPE FOG BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT FOR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS.  
 
A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST DRIFTS EAST TONIGHT, AS  
SFC LOW WEAKENS. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD  
REMAINS, WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTING NORTHWARD AND PASSING  
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE  
CONTINUES ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN LOCATIONS, AND A FEW MORE  
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THESE EASTERN LOCALES OVERNIGHT.  
OVERALL THOUGH, MAIN AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN HAS ENDED, AND THE  
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER.  
 
PERSISTENT YET DIMINISHING SFC WIND FLOW OVERALL WILL RESULT IN  
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT, WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE 50S,  
EXCEPT A FEW UPPER 40S INLAND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO PROG UPPER CUTOFF LOW DRIFTING  
EAST DURING THE DAY, THEN MAKE A SLIGHT SOUTHEASTWARD WOBBLE,  
WHICH WOULD PLACE IT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AT NIGHT, NEAR THE  
CAROLINA/VA COAST. NAM A TAD QUICKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH A  
SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS  
LOW LIKELY BEGINS TO GET STEERED TO THE NORTH AND WEST LATE AT  
NIGHT.  
 
AS FOR ANY SHOWERS, LOOKS SCT TO WIDELY SCT SUNDAY WITH PLENTY  
OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND WEAK LIFT. HOWEVER, WITH UPPER COLD POOL  
NEARBY, A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. MOST  
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.  
 
SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LATE  
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT TIMING STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION ON HOW QUICKLY  
THEY MOVE BACK IN.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S SUNDAY, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS  
REACHING 70 WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER, ESPECIALLY IF A FEW MORE  
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. HOWEVER, WITH CUTOFF NEARBY  
AND EXPECTED TEMPS ALOFT OF 4-6C, WILL BE TOUGH TO GET TOO MUCH  
HIGHER THAN 70.  
 
LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM  
FALLING TOO LOW, LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER  
50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN UP A WEAK SURFACE LOW EARLY IN THE  
PERIOD GOING INTO MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER FROM MANY OF THE  
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE FEATURE TRACK, AND  
THUS PLACEMENT OF QPF. THE NAM IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIP  
AMOUNTS AND A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE SURFACE FEATURE ON MONDAY.  
UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL  
LOWS OFTEN TEND TO UNDER PRODUCE IN TERMS OF QPF AFTER FOLLOWING  
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENTS ON THE FRONT END, THEREFORE THINKING MORE  
LIKE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH AT THIS POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE  
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL FINALLY GET A KICK INTO TUESDAY AND EJECT  
NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD ENABLE SOME RIDGING TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST  
DURING TUESDAY. SOME SUNSHINE LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND  
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT IT STAYS DRY. PERHAPS FAR NORTHEASTERN  
SECTIONS SEE A SHOWER EARLY IN THE MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD  
BE DRY.  
 
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM  
THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING APPEARS ON AVERAGE TO BE A TOUCH  
SLOWER SO BACKED DOWN POPS A TOUCH TUESDAY EVENING AND THE FIRST  
HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON THE  
LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AS IT APPROACHES FAR NW ZONES  
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE. POPS THEN  
INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. FOR NOW  
THINKING THAT THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,  
ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCE DO EXIST AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS. AFTER  
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT  
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY DUE TO MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY  
PAYING THE REGION A VISIT DOWN TO OUR SOUTH. THE LATEST GUIDANCE  
HOWEVER IS SUGGESTING THAT CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE BY LATE  
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH STARTS TO  
APPROACH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO LATE THURSDAY  
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST TIMING. THERE ARE MODEL  
DIFFERENCES WITH THE EXACT TRACK DUE TO UPPER JET STREAM  
INTERACTIONS WITH MUCH OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE FROM 12Z KEEPING THE  
MAIN SURFACE FEATURE SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. THIS REALLY  
WILL IMPACT THE NATURE OF THE PRECIP WITH RESPECT TO ONSHORE FLOW  
VERSUS MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR MOVING UP  
FROM THE SOUTH. IN ANY EVENT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY SATURDAY LEADING TO IMPROVING  
WEATHER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL  
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE REGION,  
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING,  
MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS ON SUNDAY.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR  
KISP AND KGON AS WELL AS PERHAPS KBDR FOR TONIGHT AND NEAR KGON  
FOR SUNDAY. WHILE THEY ARE CURRENTLY VFR, THEY COULD VERY WELL  
GO BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT WITH MORE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR STILL  
IN PLACE. MVFR IS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR KGON  
FOR SUNDAY.  
 
LLWS MAINLY LOCATED NEAR AND EAST OF KGON AND TWIN FORKS OF  
LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING, EXITING TOTALLY OUT OF THE  
FORECAST REGION BY MID EVENING. SE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS  
UP TO AROUND 20 KT THIS EVENING, BUT GUSTS WILL BECOME MORE  
OCCASIONAL. WINDS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10  
KT OR LESS ON SUNDAY.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
 
   
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY
 
SHOWERS AND MVFR POSSIBLE. ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TERMINALS NORTH OF NYC MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
EARLY MONDAY EVENING.   
TUESDAY
 
MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR AT NIGHT.  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KSWF TUESDAY NIGHT.   
WEDNESDAY
 
MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.   
THURSDAY
 
VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT, AND REMAIN 15  
KT OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THESE WINDS THEN LIGHTEN  
FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK.  
 
ROUGH OCEAN SEAS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE, SO SCA ACROSS THE OCEAN  
WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE NON OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN SUB  
SCA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.  
 
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY  
DUE TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 6  
FT. THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN RESULTING IN SCA  
CONDITIONS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL COME DOWN SLIGHTLY LATE TUESDAY  
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO  
WEDNESDAY DUE TO SEAS AT 4 TO 5 FT. SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH NO HYDROLOGIC  
IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND GUIDANCE, ONLY EXPECT TIDES TO  
APPROACH OR REACH MINOR COASTAL THRESHOLDS FOR THE VULNERABLE  
LOCATIONS OF SOUTHERN NASSAU AND SOUTHERN QUEENS, THE WESTERN SOUTH  
SHORE BACK BAYS. PERSISTENT SWELL AND ROUGH SEAS ALONG WITH S/SE  
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PILE WATER INTO THESE BAYS. ISSUED A  
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THIS UPCOMING HIGH TIDE.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 (162.55 MHZ) REMAINS OFF  
THE AIR.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JE/PW  
NEAR TERM...JE/PW  
SHORT TERM...PW  
LONG TERM...JE  
AVIATION...JM  
MARINE...JE/PW  
HYDROLOGY...JE/PW  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
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