108
FXUS61 KOKX 200101
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
901 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A NOR'EASTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
WEEK. SOME COASTAL IMPACTS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN WELL EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. THIS
LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND
MEANDER AROUND BEFORE EVENTUALLY PUSHING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
WEEKEND.
MODELS AND TRENDS CONTINUE TO HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF
MINIMAL IMPACTS TO THE AREA FROM THIS LOW. THE LOW MAY MAKE
ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BUT SHOULD STILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP MUCH
OF THE AREA DRY COURTESY OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH EAST, WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND
GRAB ONTO THE LOW, PUSHING IT NORTHEAST. AT ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH, SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO THE FAR EASTERN
END OF LONG ISLAND, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, THE PRIMARY EFFECT WILL BE PERSISTENT BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH NE WINDS. PEAK GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG THE
COAST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT 20-30 MPH. SOME STRONGER
GUSTS TO THE EAST MAY APPROACH 35-40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES REMAIN LOW THIS WEEK, BUT THE PERSISTENT NE
FLOW SHOULD START BRINGING A RISE IN TIDE LEVELS THROUGH MID
WEEK. PERSISTENT SWELLS FROM THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MAY ALSO AIDE
IN TIDAL PILING AND POTENTIALLY SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION.
THE TIDE CYCLES OF CONCERN FOR ANY COASTAL FLOODING ARE ON
WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE WEDNESDAY
EVENING HIGH TIDE HAVING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. THE
MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN ARE ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS AND
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT SOUTH BAY. MAINLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR THESE LOCATIONS AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. ELSEWHERE, WATER LEVELS CURRENTLY LOOK
TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS.
GLOBAL MODELING SUGGESTS A ROUGHLY 1040 HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD PUT AN END TO THE STORM'S
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE
E OF NORTH CAROLINA TRACKS SLOWLY N.
N-NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT SHOULD INCREASE BY ABOUT 14Z TUE WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NE WINDS G20-30KT, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: VFR. N WINDS G15-20KT.
SATURDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN BUILDING TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NEAR SHORE OCEAN WATERS.
GALES GO UP TONIGHT ON THE OUTER OCEAN, WITH THE SCA EXPANDING
TO ANZ332 AS SWELL GETS INTO THE SOUND. THE GALES AND SCA EXPAND
FARTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH TIMING OF
THESE HAZARDS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME ON
WEDNESDAY.
NO HEADLINES ARE UP FOR WED-FRI YET DUE TO THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME AND INHERENT MODEL UNCERTAINTY, ALTHOUGH OCEAN SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ331-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ332-353-
355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ335-338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ350.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ380-383-385.
DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...MW
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