715
FXUS61 KOKX 220843 CCA
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
333 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BRING A
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION WITH SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
2.) AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY,
WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM IMPACTS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO
THE PLAINS INTO SATURDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGING EAST. THE
LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY, PASSING NEARBY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH HELP FROM
RECONNAISSANCE DATA IN THE EPAC, GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE AI COUNTERPARTS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON A MORE
AMPLIFIED, NORTHERN SOLUTION OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE,
LEADING TO MORE MOISTURE LOCALLY. WORKING IN FAVOR OF THE SNOW
IS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE LEADING INTO THE STORM. 925 MB
TEMPS LOOK TO FALL TOWARD -20C OR BELOW ON SATURDAY, WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROGGED IN THE TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON;
LIKELY ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS IN SEVERAL YEARS. THIS WILL ALLOW
ALL SNOW TO START VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE ASSOCIATED WAA WITH THE SYSTEM GETS INTO FULL SWING. SLRS
GIVEN THE ARCTIC PROFILES SHOULD BE ABOVE 15:1 AT LEAST TO
BEGIN, BEFORE GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
SLOWLY WARMS. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WHEN MOST OF THE SNOWFALL AND
ACCUMULATION OCCURS.
DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, IT REMAINS POSSIBLE
ENOUGH WARM AIR COULD MATERIALIZE ALOFT NEAR THE COAST TO FORCE
MIXING OR A CHANGEOVER, ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
OF COURSE, THIS WOULD CUT DOWN ON SNOW TOTALS WERE IT TO OCCUR,
BUT ALSO INTRODUCE ICING CONCERNS. THIS DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AT THE MOMENT HOWEVER, WITH ENSEMBLE
MEANS PUTTING THE LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK, AND
NOT AS FAR NORTH AS RECENT OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF AND CMC.
IN LINE WITH WPC, TOTAL QPF THROUGH MONDAY SITS AROUND AN INCH
FOR COASTAL AREAS, AND CLOSER TO 0.75 INCHES INLAND. WITH AN ALL
SNOW EVENT, OR NEARLY SO, THIS WOULD PRODUCE A WARNING LEVEL
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL TRI STATE, WITH HIGHEST TOTALS
POSSIBLY ECLIPSING A FOOT. NBM V5.0 PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 6
INCHES HAVE CONSISTENTLY SAT ABOVE 90 PERCENT REGIONWIDE, AND AROUND
50 PERCENT FOR AT LEAST A FOOT. EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THE 00Z EURO
AIFS MEMBERS YIELDS A WARNING LEVEL (6 INCH+) SNOWFALL FOR NYC, AN
IMPRESSIVE SIGNAL AT THIS STAGE.
CONSIDERED HOISTING A WINTER STORM WATCH REGIONWIDE WITH THIS
UPDATE, THOUGH AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES,
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF WITH THIS PACKAGE GIVEN THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT IS STILL AROUND 72 HOURS OUT, AND CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS FAR OUT ARE LIKELY. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE HAS ONLY
INCREASED IN AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY, LINGERING INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM EXITS NORTH AND EAST INTO MONDAY,
THE DEEPENING LOW AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR
LINGERING FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL,
THOUGH THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER AT
THIS POINT.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES ON WHAT LOOKS TO
BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR THE REGION
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A RELATIVELY MILDER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS BRIEF REPRIEVE COMES TO AN END AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT
LATER FRIDAY USHERING IN AN ARCTIC AIR MASS FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
AFTERNOON, AND UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT DROP INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS INLAND, AND TOWARD 10F
AROUND THE NYC METRO. COUPLED WITH A MODEST NW FLOW, WIND CHILL
VALUES LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST AREAS, AND COULD WARRANT
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AT LEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR,
WITH MIN APPARENT TS NEAR -10F INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE FRIGID AIR MASS REMAINS ON SATURDAY, AND FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE TEENS REGIONWIDE WILL MAKE IT ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS IN
THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS. RECORD COLD HIGHS COULD BE TIED OR
BROKEN (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW) AT SOME SITES. WHILE NOT AS
BITTERLY COLD AS SATURDAY, THE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK, LIKELY AIDED BY A FRESH
SNOWPACK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR MOST, AND LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WIND CHILLS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS MORNING AND MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SW WINDS 10-15 KT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE NYC METRO TERMINALS AND
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS ELSEWHERE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH DAY BREAK. SW WINDS CONTINUE AFTER 12Z AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 10-15KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KT.
..NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY
START/END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
LATE TONIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. W WINDS BECOMING NW GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY: SNOW DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT, ENDING ON MONDAY. NE WINDS 10-15 KT GUSTS 20-25 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE SOUTH SHORE BACK
BAYS AND THE EASTERN LI SOUND UNTIL 12Z THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SEAS AT OR ABOVE 5 FT AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
THESE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING, LIKELY
LINGERING ON WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
WINDS THEN BRIEFLY SUBSIDE ON ALL WATERS BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. OCCASIONAL GALES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS LATE FRIDAY.
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING ON A WEAKENING NW TO N FLOW.
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE THEN BRINGS A CHANCE OF GALES TO
ALL WATERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
MONDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 24:
KEWR: 15/1936
KBDR: 20/2014
KNYC: 6/1882
KLGA: 18/1987
KJFK: 19/1987
KISP: 19/2014
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ332-
345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DR
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