958  
FXUS61 KOKX 190800  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
400 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  
MEANWHILE, STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. A  
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE  
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE  
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OF THE  
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BUILDING INTO THE  
LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF  
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE  
SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE  
THEN RETURNS FOR MID WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
QUASI-ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE  
SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH  
PRESSURE. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING MORE INTO THE  
ATLANTIC. THE SETUP HERE WITH VEERING WIND PROFILES AND  
VERTICAL MIXING BETWEEN 950 AND 900MB, WILL GIVE A MILD DAY  
RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS DAY AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE  
REGION. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S,  
ABOUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THOUGH.  
 
WEATHER REMAINS DRY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH  
TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP CLOUDS MINIMAL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT  
WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST  
CANADA BEING ACCOMPANIED ALOFT BY A LONGER WAVELENGTH TROUGH  
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT  
WILL BE APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT.  
 
PERSISTENT SW FLOW CONTINUES AND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. IN  
ADDITION THE ENCROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN  
CLOUDS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DECREASING TOO MUCH.  
LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THE MORE  
UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING HERE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD  
FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHICH WILL  
BE RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY OVERNIGHT.  
 
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION  
SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDING WEST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL  
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE VERY COLD POOL  
ALOFT AND TROUGH MOVING IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLOWLY MAKES  
ITS WAY CLOSER TO THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  
WEEKEND. ALOFT, THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN SATURDAY AND  
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH EXITS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
COLDER AIR ARRIVES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST  
OF THE WEEKEND ON GUSTY NW FLOW.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ZONAL FLOW BRIEFLY DEVELOPING MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE  
TUE. THIS IS WHERE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE  
GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS  
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF IS BROADER AT H5  
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA FOR THU.  
 
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER  
OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH POPS ON TUE MAY INCREASE IN SUBSEQUENT  
FORECAST PACKAGES IF THERE IS A BIT MORE MOISTURE FOR A CLIPPER  
LIKE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS  
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.  
 
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
TONIGHT THAT COULD BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR.  
 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME SW AND  
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KT WITH  
GUSTS 15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS COULD WEAKEN OR BRIEFLY END  
THIS EVENING, BUT A GUSTY SW FLOW RETURNS OVERNIGHT.  
 
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: START TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.  
GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY SUBSIDE THIS EVE, BUT RETURN TONIGHT.  
 
THE AFTERNOON KJFK HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES  
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.  
 
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: START TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.  
GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY SUBSIDE THIS EVE, BUT RETURN TONIGHT.  
 
THE AFTERNOON KLGA HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES  
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.  
 
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: START TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.  
GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY SUBSIDE THIS EVE, BUT RETURN TONIGHT.  
 
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES  
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.  
 
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL RATHER THAN  
PREVAILING.  
 
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL RATHER THAN  
PREVAILING.  
 
KISP TAF COMMENTS: START TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.  
GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY SUBSIDE THIS EVE, BUT RETURN TONIGHT.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
 
   
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
 
MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
INTO EARLY SATURDAY, THEN VFR. SW GUSTS 20-25 KT.    
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY
 
VFR. W-NW WINDS G20-30KT.    
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY
 
VFR. W GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY  
NIGHT.   
TUESDAY
 
VFR. SW GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE ACROSS  
NON-OCEAN WATERS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. FOR THE OCEAN, SCA WINDS INCREASE TO GALES TONIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN, SCA WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE OCEAN FOR  
THE REST OF SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF GALES FOR  
THE OCEAN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, CLOSED OUT WITH SCA WINDS  
SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
SUB-ADVSY CONDS RETURN ON ALL WATERS BY MON MORNING, ALTHOUGH  
MARGINAL WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 (162.55 MHZ) REMAINS OFF  
THE AIR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ010>012.  
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>008.  
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069-070-  
078>081.  
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067-068.  
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-103-105-  
107.  
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT  
SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS  
EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.  
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR  
ANZ350-353-355.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...24/JM  
NEAR TERM...JM  
SHORT TERM...JM  
LONG TERM...24  
AVIATION...DS  
MARINE...24/JM  
HYDROLOGY...24/JM  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
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