352
FXUS61 KOKX 091952
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
352 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXITS THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT FOR SATURDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH
OR ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THEN SLOWLY WORKS THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. THE HIGH
REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW, BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.
THIS OCCURS AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM A LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFT AWAY. MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CT DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON, BUT FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING OF SMALLER
RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NO LONGER ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA, SO THE
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKS THROUGH DURING THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE
ALOFT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S WELL NW OF THE CITY TO AROUND
50 FOR COASTAL AREAS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MID LEVEL LOW AND SHORTWAVE EXIT EAST EARLY ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING
FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. GENERALLY FEWER CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON
VERSUS THE MORNING HOURS AS MOISTURE CENTERED NEAR 850MB DIMINISHES.
A GUSTY WNW FLOW SHOULD PREVENT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT, AND
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING. THIS COMBINED
WITH 5-6C 850MB TEMPS LIKELY YIELD "FULL SUN" HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN DETERMINISTIC NBM. DIDN'T WANT TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM NBM
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF HOW LONG MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LAST INTO
THE DAY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH
NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SHOWER THREAT. NBM LOOKED GOOD FOR LOW
TEMPS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A SURFACE TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY, AS WELL AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH
OF TUESDAY, LEADING TO A FEW DAYS ON WARM AND DRY WEATHER. THE
WEATHER BECOMES UNSETTLED AGAIN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AS A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STARTS TO SLOWLY LIFT
TOWARDS OUR AREA. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO NBM POPS, WHICH HAS CHANCES
FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME THERE
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A LOT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY THUNDER LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
RIGHT NOW AND HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S THE ENTIRE FORECAST. SOME
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE NBM, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHERE WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO OVERACHIEVE GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE, SPECIFICALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S, EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BRING THE COLD
SPOTS DOWN TO THE 40S.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE
WEST BUILDS CLOSER DURING SATURDAY.
MAINLY LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE EARLY
EVENING FOR KLGA AND KJFK. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN CITY AND COASTAL / EASTERN
TERMINALS. AFTER 22Z GENERALLY IFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, EXCEPT
FOR EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE LIFR WILL LINGER LONGER UNTIL ABOUT 03-
04Z. THEREAFTER MAINLY MVFR PREVAILS LATER AT NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
THEN IMPROVE TO VFR TOWARDS 07-09Z FOR THE CITY TERMINALS, BUT LATER
SATURDAY MORNING (MAINLY JUST AFTER THE MORNING PUSH) FOR THE MORE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN TERMINALS (KSWF, KGON, KISP).
HAVE REMOVED TSRA PROB30 GROUP FOR KGON AS THE LLJ EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE RELATED ACTIVITY IS TRANSLATING FURTHER EAST AND
OFFSHORE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND VICINITY SHOWERS THIS EVENING
INTO A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT, BUT PREVAILING SHOWERS ARE
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR KGON INTO THE
EVENING PUSH AS THERE WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS OUT TO THE EAST.
FOR THIS EVENING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST WITH WINDS
IN ITS WAKE BECOMING W OR NW AND INCREASING IN SPEED INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND WIND DIRECTION CHANGES.
TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES TONIGHT COULD BE DELAYED BY
2-3 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: VFR, NW WINDS 150G25-30KT.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA ON THE OCEAN REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET SEE
UP TO 5 FT SEAS INTO EARLY EVENING, BUT WILL LEAVE THE END TIME OF
THE ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING. DID HOWEVER ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR
THE NON-OCEAN WATERS FOR SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY WITH A WNW
FLOW. DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
ALL WATERS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ON SUNDAY, USE CAUTION IF OUT ON THE
WATER AS AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S, BUT WATER TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S.
HYDROLOGY
UP TO ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE TWIN FORKS OF
LI AND NEW LONDON COUNTY, OTHERWISE, ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE
BELOW A HALF INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IMPACTS LIKELY
LIMITED TO MINOR SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS SE
CT AND EASTERN LI.
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS SATURDAY THROUGH THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
SYNOPSIS...JC/JT
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JC/JT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page