716
FXUS61 KOKX 241134
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
734 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
2) FROST EXPECTED INLAND AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND THIS
MORNING AND THEN LIKELY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
3) ONE LAST ROUND OF SPOTTY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE
ALONG THE BACK BAYS OF SOUTHERN NASSAU COUNTY FOR THE MORNING
HIGH TIDE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND, THEN DRIFT SOUTH ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE,
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR THE OUTLYING AREAS. TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE 30S WITH SOME 25-30 READINGS POSSIBLE WELL INLAND
AND IN PARTS OF THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS.
FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL CONNECTICUT,
COASTAL WESTCHESTER AND EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WITH PATCHY
FROST ALSO POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY. FROST
IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LONG ISLAND, NYC, AND
THE SURROUNDING NEARBY SUBURBS WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
TOO WARM.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MEAN INTRODUCTION OF SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR, SO FROST MAY BE
MORE PATCHY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3
WITH THE APPROACH OF A FULL MOON LATE THIS WEEKEND AND A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL, WATER LEVELS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES. BRIEF MINOR FLOODING OF THE
MORE VULNERABLE LOCATIONS NEAR THE WATERFRONT AND SHORELINE IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE NASSAU SOUTH SHORE BAYS WITH THIS MORNING'S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST TERMINALS, WITH A LIGHT N TO NE
FLOW FOR OTHER TERMINALS AND WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT OR LESS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME SW BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z TODAY
AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING FOR OUTLYING AREAS
WHILE SHIFTING TO THE W THEN N/NW FOR THE METRO TERMINALS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 5 FEET SO ALL WATERS REMAIN UNDER SCA
THRESHOLDS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
OCEAN SEAS MAY ALSO APPROACH 5 FT FROM TUESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071-079-081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MW
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