795
FXUS61 KOKX 050836
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
336 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY INCREASED PROBABILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
NUISANCE FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. LOW
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
2) SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN UNSETTLED AND WET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH A NEARLY STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING, MAINLY AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND ARE BELOW FREEZING, BUT
ONCE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. A FEW SHELTERED AREAS MAY TAKE LONGER TO WARM, BUT THINK
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
FREEZING.
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY
BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING. THERMAL FORCING WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINE AND SE CANADA
TRIES TO NOSE SW INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THE RAIN MAY BECOME MODERATE AT
TIMES BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY, BUT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE OF COLD AIR LOCKED
IN BENEATH WARMER AIR ALOFT.
THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FOR COLDER SURFACE AIR DRAINING SOUTHWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
PROBABILITIES FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN HAVE TICKED UP JUST A BIT FOR
SOME ELEVATED AREAS IN ORANGE COUNTY AND INTERIOR S CT. HOWEVER,
PROBABILITIES ARE OVERALL STILL BELOW 30 PERCENT AND MAINLY PLAIN
RAIN IS STILL FORECAST. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME LOCATIONS DROP TO 32
DEGREES AS THE RAIN SLOWLY TAPERS OFF TONIGHT, BUT CURRENTLY NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY IMPACTS. THIS IS DUE TO THE RAIN PROCESS LIMITING
ANY IMPACTS WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. WOULD LIKE SEE TEMPERATURES
DROP BELOW FREEZING TO ALLOW FOR ANY IMPACTS TO ROADS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE PRECIP WILL BE COMING TO AN END BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL TO
32 DEGREES. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT IN THE HWO ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES AND CONTINUE MONITOR
GUIDANCE TRENDS TODAY. A SHORT-FUSED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR SOME THESE INTERIOR LOCATIONS IF TEMPERATURES
SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT TREND TOWARDS FALLING BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA. MEANWHILE, NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A GENERAL
1 TO 2 INCHES OF SWE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION, IN LINE WITH A SNOW
CORE HERE AT THE OFFICE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON YIELDING 1.2 INCHES.
COUPLED WITH THE RESULTANT SNOWMELT, THE RAINFALL MAY LEAD PONDING
AND POCKETS OF POOR DRAINAGE/NUISANCE FLOODING. NO FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED SINCE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES WILL NOT BE HIGH AND SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 0.25"/HR.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY, AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TO START SATURDAY. GUIDANCE MAY BE WARMING TEMPERATURES A
BIT TOO QUICKLY GIVEN THERE IS NOT A STRONG PUSH OF SW FLOW
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY MAY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD START RISING INTO THE 40S AND THEN GRADUALLY
PUSH INTO THE 50S FROM THE NYC METRO NORTH AND WEST IN THE
EVENING AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY STAY IN THE 40S DUE TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW INFLUENCE.
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE NBM CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME, BUT
THIS MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE MOST ORGANIZED LIFT IS PROGGED TO
PASS TO WELL TO OUR NW. SHOWERS MAY END UP SCATTERED OVERALL WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THE COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND WASHES OUT AS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A MORE PERSISTENT SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTENSIFYING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SW FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL LARGELY BE THE 50S WITH POTENTIAL OF LOWER 60S FROM
NYC ON NORTH AND WEST. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH OF 61 AT CENTRAL
PARK ON SUNDAY VERIFIES, IT WOULD BE THE FIRST TEMPERATURE 60
DEGREES OR HIGHER SINCE NOVEMBER 9, 2025. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE NYC METRO MAY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S. COASTAL AREAS AND LONG ISLAND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S
WITH THE COLD WATER MODERATING THE AIRMASS. IF THERE IS MORE OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND DIRECTION, WARMER AIR COULD PUSH
FURTHER EAST UNTIL THE OCCURRENCE OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
A FRONT WHICH WILL BECOME NEARLY STALLED WITHIN THE AREA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY TODAY. CONDITIONS
TRANSITION FROM VFR TO IFR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN LIFR BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. IFR TO LIFR EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THE
FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT AS PERIODS OF RAIN OCCUR.
WINDS INITIALLY LIGHT, 5 KTS OR LESS, WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION
INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN WINDS BECOME MORE ENE NEAR 5-7
KTS THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KTS THIS EVENING.
GUSTS BEGIN TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING, PEAKING OVERNIGHT NEAR
18-23 KTS.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
IFR AND LIFR ARRIVAL TIME COULD BE 2-4 HOURS OFF FROM TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT: LIFR TO IFR. RAIN CONTINUES. ENE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
FRIDAY: MAINLY MVFR TO IFR. RAIN TAPERS OFF EARLY IN THE DAY BUT
THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AT NIGHT. NE WIND GUSTS EARLY 15-20
KT.
SATURDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH RAIN
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. VFR
EVENTUALLY RETURNS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING E FLOW TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO WINDS REACHING NEAR 25 KT
ON THE OCEAN, LI BAYS, AND LI SOUND E OF THE CT RIVER. THESE
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE FRIDAY MORNING, BUT OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED ON THE
OCEAN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND ON THE LI BAYS/E LI SOUND, TONIGHT
THROUGH 10AM FRIDAY. SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED FRIDAY NIGHT EAST
OF MORICHES INLET AND THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN
SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LIKELY ON THE OCEAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 25KT
AND SEAS 5-7 FEET. SEAS MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY, BUT SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ332-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...DS
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