722
FXUS61 KOKX 260824
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS, SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY CONTINUES TODAY.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY DUE TO A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. HIGHS REACH THE LOW 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS IN NE
REACHING THE MID 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S INLAND AND LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS, AND LOW TO UPPER 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2
MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE NE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF WESTERN US
RIDGING AND WILL LIKELY AID IN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NE
MIDWEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING SETTING UP IN THE VICINITY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY NW OF
THE NYC METRO. MOISTURE LEVELS AT THIS TIME ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE
AND SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NO CONCERNS FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR
FLOODING WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT.
CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE LOW EITHER TRACKING OVER THE AREA OR
SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, SO THERE ARE STILL
SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, LEADING TO DIFFERENCES IN
THE OUTCOME OF SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE FURTHER N TRACK WOULD FAVOR SENDING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT S OF THE AREA MAY KEEP THE AREA MORE
STABLE, BUT STILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
SOLUTIONS THAT DEVELOP THE LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TRACK IT
ENE ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
POTENTIAL OF A COOLER/MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND A STEADIER
RAINFALL.
WPC HAS CONTINUED TO PLACE THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE PREDICATED ON EXTENT OF HEATING/INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY,
WHICH REMAINS ON UNCERTAIN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT PLACEMENT/TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/UPPER LOW WILL
PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTCOME.
THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTS
CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY. THE TROUGH MAY LINGER OVER NEW ENGLAND TO
END THE WEEK WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIP ARE LOW AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL ALSO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
APPROACH OF A FULL MOON ON WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE BEFORE WEAKENING SUNDAY NIGHT.
VFR.
THE WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
TERMINALS WILL HAVE WINDS OUT OF THE NE AND SE UP TO 5 KT AT TIMES.
LIGHT N/NE WINDS VEER TO THE S/SE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING UP TO 10 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS TODAY MAY BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM FROM THE NYC METROS NORTH/WEST.
TUESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS LIKELY AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. S
WINDS G15-20KT.
WEDNESDAY: SHOWERS LIKELY AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. E WINDS 15-
20KT.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION TODAY. E-SE FLOW COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT AT TIMES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3 FT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE OCEAN WATERS AND POSSIBLY
TO ALL WATERS TUE-WED, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT. LINGERING ELEVATED
SEAS COULD CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN INTO THURSDAY, MAINLY FROM FIRE
ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY AT OCEAN BEACHES WITH A A 3-4 FT E-SE WIND
WAVE/SWELL.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JP
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