926
FXUS61 KOKX 260057
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
857 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ON THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS FOR
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOL, WET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR RAIN MID TO LATE WEEK WITH AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN IN PLACE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TRACKING TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN TO THE REGION.
THE AREA RESIDES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER THE MARITIMES AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO THE WEST. THE UPPER
LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST SUNDAY, AS A SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, GRADUALLY LOWERING LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. DEEP SYNOPTIC LIFT PERSISTS INTO TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD
OF MODERATE RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY, INTO NORTHEASTERN NJ, NYC, AND SOUTH AND EAST.
NBM PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH RANGE FROM 75 TO 85
PERCENT, WITH GREATER THAN 2 INCHES REMAINING RELATIVELY LOW
ACROSS THE CWA. A SHARP GRADIENT IN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE HIGHEST, 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH, AND AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CT.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER, RAINFALL, AND EASTERLY WINDS, TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
PATTERN INTO THE START OF MAY CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED.
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL US TRANSLATES EAST MIDWEEK. LEADING
THIS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIVES WELL NORTH INTO HUDSON BAY, WITH A
WEAKENING WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH LOCALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS THE BOUNDARY COMES THROUGH.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE THEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE INCOMING TROUGH, SPURRING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT, WHICH EVENTUALLY
TRACKS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL LIKELY.
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW MAY END UP CUTTING OFF NEARBY INTO LATE
WEEK WITH STRONG BLOCKING SOUTH OF GREENLAND, KEEPING AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR RAIN AROUND AT TIMES. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP RESTRAIN
TEMPERATURES, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MID TO LATE WEEK LARGELY IN THE 50S
AND LOW 60S THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL FOR KGON WHICH
IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING (MAINLY AFTER 12Z) INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.
E WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE STRONGEST AROUND THE NYC TERMINALS.
AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20KT. WINDS WILL THEN BACK AROUND TO
THE NE LATE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH
SIMILAR GUSTS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY FOR THE TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS LATE TONIGHT
AND FOR IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES SUNDAY. TIMING MAY VARY BY
1 TO 2 HOURS.
GUSTS ON SUNDAY MAY BE LESS FREQUENT.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. NW G15-20KT
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THEN AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT, AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, THE
GRADIENT E TO NE FLOW WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES WELL TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT, SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND ON
THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS DURING SUNDAY. THEN SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A
PERSISTENT NE FLOW. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT, AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY LINGER
AOA 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...DR/MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DR/MET
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