775
FXUS61 KOKX 272037
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
337 PM EST THU FEB 27 2020
SYNOPSIS
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO CANADA TONIGHT, THEN STALL
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE HIT ADVY CRITERIA AT TIMES TODAY,
BOTH ON GUSTS AND SUSTAINED. DAMAGE REPORTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN
MINOR. THE WELL MIXED AIRMASS WILL KEEP THE WINDS UP INTO THIS
EVENING, THEN SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE TO BLW ADVY CRITERIA TNGT
AS OPTIMAL MIXING CONDITIONS CEASE. IT WILL STILL STAY WINDY
HOWEVER WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW UP TO JET LEVEL.
THE MODELS KEEP THE AREA DRY TNGT, ALTHOUGH THE TIMEHEIGHTS
SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND 5000 FT FOR SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS.
ALTHOUGH A FLURRY CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, WLY LAKE
TRAJECTORY, DOWNSLOPE AND DRY AIRMASS KEEP THE CHANCES TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST.
THE NBM WAS USED FOR TEMPS, WHICH IS WARMER THAN THE GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE MIXED FLOW.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRI AND FRI NGT, WITH LAKE
EFFECT TO THE N, AND A MID LVL DISTURBANCE TRACKING TO THE S.
WLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA WINDY, BUT PEAK GUSTS ABOUT 10-15 KT
LESS BASED ON MODELED WINDS ALOFT. SKIES WILL LIKELY GO MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY AFTN AS TEMPS HIT CONVECTIVE AND CLOUDS SPREAD.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FRI EVE INTO FRI NGT.
THE LOW TO THE N WILL BE WEAKENING AND CONDITIONS FOR PRIME
MIXING WILL BE REDUCED LOCALLY.
THE NBM WAS USED FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND CHILLS WILL
REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 20S ON FRI, AND FALL INTO THE TEENS FRI
NGT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO CARVE OUT MEAN TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND IT AND
RIDGING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE RIDGING IS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH ALOFT AHEAD A DEVELOPING
LARGER UPPER TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MAY NOT CROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK.
CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND WITH THE W-NW FLOW
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE 30S AND ONLY RISING A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALSO
DEVELOP SCT-BKN STRATOCU DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS INLAND AND THE 20S
MOST ELSEWHERE, WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 20-25
MPH ON SATURDAY AND UP TO 20 MPH ON SUNDAY.
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THEN MAY STALL TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY
BEFORE MOVING THROUGH AT SOME POINT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIKELY MOVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE TIMING OF THESE
WAVES IS DIFFICULT TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT THIS JUNCTURE.
HOWEVER, CHANCES OF SHOWERS EXIST IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. IF THE FRONT DOES MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 50S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE TEMPERATURES NEXT
THURSDAY COULD END UP LOWER IF THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION.
VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING TO 4-5 KFT AND SCATTERING.
WEST WINDS 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY, ESPECIALLY AT THE CITY AND
COASTAL TERMINALS. IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY
VFR. W WINDS G25-30KT.
SATURDAY
VFR. W/NW WINDS G20-25KT.
SUNDAY
VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT.
MONDAY
VFR EXPECTED.
TUESDAY
SUB-VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
MARINE
GALES WILL CONTINUE THRU TNGT ON ALL WATERS. THE WRNG MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRI ON THE OCEAN, WITH A
SCA NEEDED ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRI NGT, BUT
AN ADVY WILL BE NEEDED ON THE OCEAN, WITH CONDITIONS MRGNL
ELSEWHERE.
SCA CONDITIONS IN WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS ABOVE 5
FT ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS. WINDS AND
SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
EQUIPMENT
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 (162.55 MHZ) IS STILL
OPERATING AT REDUCED POWER.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DS
HYDROLOGY...DS
EQUIPMENT...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page