495  
FXUS61 KOKX 300845  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
445 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA TODAY, ARRIVING  
TONIGHT, THEN STALLING NEARBY OR OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. A  
FRONTAL WAVE THEN DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH  
AND EAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE  
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND REMAINS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE LOSES ITS INFLUENCE AS A  
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ARRIVES LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOLLOWED BY A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH  
LOOKS TO STALL NEARBY OR OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  
 
ALOFT, AN UPPER-LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH QUEBEC, LEADING TO GRADUALLY  
FALLING HEIGHTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND A FLATTER, MORE ZONAL FLOW.  
SOME 00Z GUIDANCE HINT A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MAY PASS WITHIN THIS FLOW  
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
 
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, ONE MORE DAY OF WARMER  
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 20C WHICH IS  
ABOUT 6C ABOVE THE AVERAGE. HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE IN  
THE LOW/MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE SPOTS AROUND THE NYC  
METRO MAY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S. AREAS IN URBAN NE NJ LOOKS TO  
FALL SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER 90S. GIVEN MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS  
FALL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 99  
TO 102 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME COASTAL SPOTS MAY ONLY REACH 95 TO  
99 AIDED BY A SEA BREEZE. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE  
ENTIRE AREA, EXCEPT IN NE NJ, WHERE AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN  
CARRIED. HERE, HEAT INDICES COULD REACH 105.  
 
AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ARRIVES, TIMED IN TANDEM WITH A SUBTLE  
SHORTWAVE PASSING ALOFT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY  
AREA WILL BE N & W OF NYC, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES DOWN TO THE  
COAST. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STORMS MAY  
POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA FOR WINDS/HAIL. HOWEVER,  
WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS GOOD, OTHER PARAMETERS LIKE BULK SHEAR  
AND MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK POOR, IN ADDITION TO A WEAK  
TRIGGER FOR THESE STORMS.  
 
FOLLOWING THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH, A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL  
ARRIVE AND STALL OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE  
OF THE FRONT AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, IT LOOKS LIKELY WE'LL  
STAY DRY INTO THE NIGHT, TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THURSDAY INTO  
FRIDAY. A LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY TRACK WEST  
AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT,  
THIS LOW WILL EXIT OUT TO SEA, CLEARING ANY LINGERING RAIN.  
 
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS GOOD FOR A PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT WITH  
THE AREA UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET STREAK THURSDAY THROUGH  
FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING ALOFT. INSTABILITY DOES NOT  
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL ANTICIPATING  
CONVECTION, BUT CONFIDENCE IN PERSISTENT HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS LOW.  
DESPITE THIS, WPC DOES STILL HAVE THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. PWATS WILL RANGE FROM 1.75-2.25" THROUGH THIS  
PERIOD.  
 
FOLLOWING A DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RAINFALL SHOULD START THURSDAY  
MORNING, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR NORTH THURSDAY  
EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,  
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS REACH THE MID TO LOW 80S ON  
THURSDAY THEN REMAIN LIMITED TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON  
FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN  
CANADA AS A RARE LATE SUMMER HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND DELIVERS DRIER  
CONDITIONS WITH NOTICEABLY LOWER HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY  
MORNING WILL HAVE A HINT OF EARLY FALL TO IT WITH TEMPERATURES TO  
START IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 ON A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND  
WITH CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR  
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO  
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON RECOVER TO  
CLOSE TO 80, WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE  
START OF AUGUST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN SLOWLY WARM INTO NEXT WEEK  
WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY RETURNING TO SEASONABLE  
LEVELS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. WENT WITH THE NBM GUIDANCE  
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. A COLD  
FRONT THEN GRADUALLY APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING  
OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.  
 
GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, NORTH  
AND NORTHWESTERN TERMINALS LIKE KSWF, KHPN, KTEB, AND KBDR HAS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO BRING BRIEF MVFR  
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY  
HIGHER AT KSWF WHERE A TEMPO FOR TSRA IS INCLUDED IN THE TAF.  
THE OTHER NORTHERN TERMINALS HAVE A PROB30 FOR NOW.  
 
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION EARLY THIS  
MORNING. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE S/SW TODAY UP TO 10 KT, EXCEPT UP  
TO 15 KT FOR KJFK LATE IN THE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING.  
 
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...  
 
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS  
MORNING, AS THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, 5 KT OR LESS.  
 
A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING, BUT  
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS (EXCEPT FOR KTEB  
WHERE A PROB30 FOR TSRA IS IN PLACE).  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
 
 
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, CHANCES OF SHOWERS.  
 
THURSDAY: RAIN CHANCES PEAK THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS.  
 
FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN AM, CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THE  
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: VFR.  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY  
CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING  
ON A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL  
DEEPEN AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN WATERS DURING  
FRIDAY AND THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE WAVE PASSES TO  
THE EAST, CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING WEST TO EAST, FALLING BELOW  
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE WAVES MAY NOT DROP BELOW  
ADVISORY LEVELS ON OCEAN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
OCEAN SEAS ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO LINGER NEAR 5 TO 6 FT EARLY  
SATURDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE WATERS  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK FOR SUB ADVISORY SEAS TO RETURN ALL OCEAN  
WATERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS SETTLING CLOSER  
TO 3 TO 4 FT. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY WITH  
OCEAN SEAS AVERAGING CLOSE TO 3 FT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
MORE PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS  
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. WPC HAS OUTLINED THE ENTIRE  
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY  
MORNING, AND LOCALIZED TO ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING COULD  
DEVELOP WHERE THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAINFALL SETS UP. CURRENTLY THERE  
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY  
INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY, AND 1 TO 2 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH AND  
EAST. SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE REMAINS SOME  
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS AXIS WILL BE. OTHERWISE, ANTICIPATING  
MORE OF A NUISANCE FLOOD THREAT, PARTICULARLY IN THE TYPICAL URBAN  
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.  
 
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
THERE IS AN OVERALL LOW RIP CURRENT RISK FOR OCEAN BEACHES  
THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO A 1 FT S/SE SWELL AND 1 TO 2 FT WIND  
WAVES.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 30  
----------------------------------------------------  
NEWARK 101/1949  
BRIDGEPORT 95/1949  
CENTRAL PARK *98/1988  
LAGUARDIA 99/1988  
KENNEDY 96/2002  
ISLIP 95/1988  
 
* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS  
 
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 30  
----------------------------------------------------  
CENTRAL PARK........80 (2002)  
LAGUARDIA...........81 (2019,2002)  
KENNEDY.............79 (2006,1995)  
ISLIP...............76 (2002)  
NEWARK..............81 (2002)  
BRIDGEPORT..........76 (2002)  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.  
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS  
EVENING FOR CTZ009>012.  
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-  
078>081-176>179.  
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS  
EVENING FOR NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.  
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002.  
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS  
EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.  
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ004-  
006-103>108.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JE/BR  
NEAR TERM...BR  
SHORT TERM...BR  
LONG TERM...JE  
AVIATION...JE  
MARINE...JE/BR  
HYDROLOGY...JE/BR  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
CLIMATE...  
 
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