689
FXUS61 KOKX 250555
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
155 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND ISO-SCT THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
ISO-SCT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AFTER A GOOD STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, LOOK FOR
MORE CLOUDS INTO THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
AT THIS POINT THE ESATS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO PAST
NOTABLE HEAVY RAIN EVENTS SO FAR THIS WARM SEASON. M-CLIMATE AND
OTHER ANOMALOUS INDICATORS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. PWATS GET TO
1.75 INCHES WHICH IS HIGH, BUT NOT AS HIGH OR NOTABLE AS SOME
RECENT HEAVY RAIN OCCURRENCES. SFC DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO GET TO
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S SO THERE WILL BE A NOTABLE UPTICK IN
THE HUMIDITY DURING THURSDAY. THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE THU
/ THU NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AND THUS FAR THE NWP
AND AI GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVING A LACK OF CONSOLIDATION WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THERE IS
AN INCREASE IN THE BUNDLING OR CONSOLIDATION OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES WHICH WOULD INCREASE ANY SYNOPTIC
FORCING AND UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN. THE COLORADO
STATE AI GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR LATE THURSDAY, WHILE WPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK. A SKINNY
CAPE PROFILE IS INDICATED ON THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO BE SUGGESTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH
ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOR FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IN PLACE AND A LINGERING COLD FRONT NEARBY, THERE WILL
REMAIN THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO INCH ITS WAY OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS PER GLOBAL NWP AND AI CONSENSUS. THEREFORE AT
THIS POINT IN TIME THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE NICE AND DRY WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS FROM
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TERMINALS.
VFR. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY
FOR KSWF AND KHPN, HOWEVER COVERAGE IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS. ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN
LOWER CONDITIONS.
WINDS SPEEDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. W/WSW FLOW EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY, AFTERNOON GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. GUSTS MAY BE MORE
OCCASIONAL THAN FREQUENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT WINDS
COULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT JFK TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. SW GUSTS
MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL THAN FREQUENT.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WSW WINDS 10KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. LIGHT NW WINDS.
THURSDAY: VFR THU AM, BECOMING SUB VFR W/ SHRA/TSRA.
FRIDAY: MOSTLY VFR, SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON W/ SHRA/TSRA.
SATURDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
OCEAN SEAS GETTING TO AROUND 4 FT AND GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT.
OTHERWISE, SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SEAS AND WINDS
DIMINISHING FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS FOR THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS:
LOW RISK OF RIPS FOR NYC AND WESTERN HALF OF LI BEACHES TODAY WITH A
COMBO OF 1 TO 2 FT E/SE WIND WAVES AND SWELLS, WITH A MODERATE RISK
FOR THE E SUFFOLK BEACHES, WHERE THERE WILL BE A GREATER INFLUENCE
OF 2-3 FT SW WIND WAVES.
LOW RISK OF RIPS FOR NYC BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK
FOR NASSAU AND SUFFOLK BEACHES WITH A GREATER MIX OF 2 TO 3 FT SE
SWELLS, ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...JE
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