939
FXUS61 KOKX 121152
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
752 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING. HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG WIND POTENTIAL IS INCREASING WITH THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLY COOL AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AFTER
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING.
2) A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA WITH RAIN AND
WIND FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR
TO FOLLOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WILL GET MIXED OUT AFTER A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. MORE IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S TODAY LIKELY TO BE REACHED EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN TEMPS DROP
THROUGH THE 40S TODAY AND 30S TONIGHT. RAIN EXPECTED WITH COLD
FROPA THIS MORNING, THEN LIGHT ANAFRONTAL PRECIP EXPECTED INTO
THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM NYC E GIVEN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING LAGGING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT AND FLOW ALOFT ALIGNING WITH THE FRONT. AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN, PRECIP SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW, AND SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON GRASSY/ELEVATED
SURFACES GIVEN TEMPS STILL ABOVE FREEZING. MAYBE UP TO AN INCH
IN SPOTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF W PASSAIC AND ALONG THE
ROCKLAND/ORANGE BORDER. TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOK
TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES, PERHAPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
ON SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S IN THE NYC METRO AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH CARVING OUT
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY, TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AND INTO EASTERN CANADA LATER MONDAY.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WELL IN ADVANCE WILL LIFT THROUGH ON SUNDAY
AND BRING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TO
INLAND SECTIONS.
ANOTHER WARM FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY A NORTHERLY SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC MOISTURE, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A MODERATE TO HEAVY WARM
CONVEYOR BELT RAINFALL ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING. ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY FOLLOW FOR LATE MON INTO MON EVENING WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NBM 48H PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL HAVE INCREASED TO 40-60 PERCENT, AND THERE IS STRONG
DETERMINISTIC MODEL SUPPORT FOR THIS, WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN AS
HIGH AS 2-3 INCHES.
IN ADDITION, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LLJ, NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR 24H MAX WIND GUST >= 45 MPH (WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS) HAVE INCREASED TO 40-60 PERCENT AT THE COAST.
SYNOPTIC SETUP WITH A LONG FETCH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EVEN
SUGGESTS LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT. AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR HOWEVER, DUE TO THE COLD WATERS AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION, A STRONG SFC-BASED INVERSION WILL LIKELY BE IN
PLACE, WHICH MAY IMPEDE THE AMOUNT OF MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE
SURFACE AT LEAST IN AREAS EAST OF NYC.
WARM SECTOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO GET AT
LEAST INTO THE 50S, AND INTO THE LOWER 60S FROM NYC WEST.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, IT WILL GET MUCH COLDER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ON TUE/WED, WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO PERHAPS LOWER 30S IN NYC.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. IT HAS
ALREADY MOVED ACROSS KSWF, KEWR AND KTEB. IT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REST OF THE NYC TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND THEN
PUSH PAST THE REST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING.
AREAS OF RAINFALL ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME MIXING WITH AND
CHANGE OF PRECIPITATION TO SNOW IS FORECAST LATER TODAY. NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT NYC TERMINALS AND FOR OTHER
TERMINALS, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN LESS THAN 1 INCH.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT. MAINLY MVFR TO IFR EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY WITH THE RAIN AND/OR SNOW. SOME LOCAL LIFR TO
VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, EAST OF NYC TERMINALS. VFR RETURNS BY TONIGHT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASE AND TRANSITION FROM VARIABLE TO SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO BECOME MORE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS INCREASE FROM NEAR 5-10 KTS TO NEAR 15-20
KT. THE SUSTAINED WINDS RETURN TO NEAR 5-10 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. GUSTS NEAR 25-30 KT TODAY EVENTUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL CHANGES. THE TIMING FOR THESE
CHANGES IN THE TAF MAY BE OFF BY 2-4 HOURS. CATEGORIES MAY FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN VFR, MVFR AND IFR THROUGH TODAY.
PEAK GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. S-SW WIND GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KT AFTERNOON INTO
NIGHT.
SATURDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH RAIN, HIGHEST CHANCES AT NIGHT. SE WIND
GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KT AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH RAIN. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 25-30
KT DURING THE DAY. MORE WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT AT NIGHT.
LLWS POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY ISSUED FOR MOST WATERS, WITH SOME COASTAL
SITES ALREADY REPORTING VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM, AND GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR THESE LOWER
VSBYS UNTIL COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
INITIALLY WILL EXPAND TO ALL WATERS TODAY AFTER COLD FROPA, WITH
W-NW FLOW GUSTING TO 25-30 KT. WINDS START TO DIMINISH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ON MOST OF THE NON OCEAN WATERS, THEN GRADUALLY
ON THE OCEAN FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL
TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO SCA COND ON ALL
WATERS FROM LATE FRI AFTERNOON INTO MOST OF DAYTIME SAT, WITH
LINGERING HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS THEREAFTER INTO SAT EVENING.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS ON THE OCEAN IN W FLOW
ON SAT STILL EXISTS, BUT THINK THEY WILL ONLY OCCUR FOR A SHORT
TIME RATHER THAN BE FREQUENT.
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY GALES LIKELY ON ALL WATERS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ331-332-
340-350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ331-
332-335-340-345.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ335.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN
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