112
FXUS61 KOKX 181141
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2020
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AND WELL OUT
INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE LOCAL REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY INTO
MID WEEK, WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY POSSIBLY NEARS FAR
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
TODAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BUT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE REMNANTS OF SALLY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
FARTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY.
MORE DRYING CONDITIONS TAKING PLACE FARTHER NORTH WITH RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTLINE OF LONG ISLAND.
EXPECTING THESE RAIN SHOWERS TO BE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BEFORE
900 AM.
DEWPOINTS WILL LOWER DURING THE DAY AND SOME SUBSTANTIAL
DECREASE IN 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A COOL AND LESS HUMID
DAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE, LASTING LONGEST
ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF 3/4
CONSMOS AND 1/4 CONSRAW, MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO MOVE IN AND NEARLY STEADY MID
LEVEL HEIGHT TENDENCY, CLOUDS WILL DECREASE MORE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS SUNDAY, EXITING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHEAST CANADA AND WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS DURING THIS WEEKEND.
FOR BOTH TONIGHT, SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL
BE A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR FROST BUT FOR MOST INTERIOR SPOTS,
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND THEREFORE WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING
DOWN TO THE MID 30S FOR SOME AREAS, PUT IN PATCHY FROST INTO
FORECAST GRIDS. LOWS OVERALL WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 50.
HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S,
WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BEACHES SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION, HIGH SURF, BEACH EROSION, AND BEACH FLOODING WILL
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING AND
SHIFTING SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA BY MID WEEK. ALOFT, AN UPPER
TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY. REFER TO THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECASTS
FROM NHC. GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE
UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF EAST OF NEW ENGLAND STEERS THE SYSTEM
TO TOWARD FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD HAVE NO MORE IMPACT THAN KEEP
THE AREA UNDER A DRY NW FLOW. BEFORE THEN THOUGH, THE AREA WILL
RESIDE IN NE FLOW SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHICH AT TIMES WILL
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF SUMMER BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
HIGH SURF, BEACH EROSION, AND BEACH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NEW YORK CITY
METRO AREA AND EAST. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE CONDITIONS IMPROVE VFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KT, INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT
THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT, AND THEN UP TO 25 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING, ENDING
LATE TONIGHT, AND TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING FOR VARYING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH AREAS OF MVFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE NYC
METRO AREA AND ALONG THE COAST, TO VFR. IMPROVING TO VFR LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF IMPROVING
CONDITIONS IS UNCERTAIN AND MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. LOW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
VFR. N TO NE WINDS G20KT, MAINLY
DURING THE DAYTIME, AND HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST.
TUESDAY
VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HAZARDS REMAIN THE SAME AS BEFORE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
ALL MARINE ZONES HAVE SCA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN JUST THE
OCEAN WITH THE SCA CONTINUING ALL THE WAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
A PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND SWELLS FROM TEDDY WILL RESULT IN
BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN AND GUSTS NEAR SCA CRITERIA FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH A RECENT
NEW MOON. THIS MORNING MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS MAY BE
TOUCHED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY, AND A
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING THEN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK
BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FOR THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS EVENING AS COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN QUEENS AND SOUTHERN
NASSAU COUNTIES.
ADDITIONAL MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGH
TIDES THIS WEEKEND WITH A BUILDING SE SWELL AND PILING
POTENTIAL. SOME MODELS EVEN SUGGEST MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
THIS WEEKEND FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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