982
FXUS61 KOKX 231730
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
130 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEPART TODAY.
2) A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS LIKELY FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND DEPART DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING, WITH POPS GRADUALLY
DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOW
POST FRONTAL WITH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END AND SOME COLDER
TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA, CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME WET
SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY WET
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2
AFTER A PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THRU
WEDNESDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT IS THEN
CURRENTLY TIMED FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRI. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF RAIN WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY TO COOL INTO THE
40S FOR HIGHS, WITH WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING TEMPS FOR LOWS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART
DEPART THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEST TO EAST TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. DRIZZLE REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT
SHOULD CLEAR UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT COULD
BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS. ONCE WE BECOME VFR, CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NNW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 17-24 KT REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT TO AROUND 10 KT.
WINDS REMAIN HERE INTO THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW, BEFORE MID
AFTERNOON DIRECTIONS BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH WINDS AT 10 KT OR
BELOW.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.
ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS. THEY MAY NOT OCCUR
FREQUENTLY AT ALL TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR WITH S/SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
THURSDAY: VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING, MVFR
OR LOWER LATE AT NIGHT WITH RAIN LIKELY. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20
KT.
FRIDAY: CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW
WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SATURDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
SEAS AROUND 5 FT AND GUSTS AROUND 25KT. FOR THE NON-OCEAN
WATERS, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THRU TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR ALL
WATERS THRU THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS RAMP UP THURSDAY
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON SAT ATTM.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...BC
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