510
FXUS61 KOKX 270654
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
254 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP TODAY, A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
2) COOLER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
3) MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE
PRECEDED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS THOUGH, ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP
TODAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE SHORE GETTING
UP INTO THE 80S. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TOP A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST DUE TO A CANOPY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD
FORECAST, THERE WAS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO LOWER HIGHS TODAY BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN EXPECTED.
HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
WILL BLOCK SOME OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH ENERGY FROM ADVANCING
NORTH, BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR OR JUST SOUTHWEST
OF NYC AND LI TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. MOST CAMS SHOW A BIT
FARTHER NORTH PROGRESSION WITH THESE SHOWERS THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE (AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND MOST OF NE NJ) TO LOW
END CHANCE (ACROSS STATEN ISLAND, SOUTHERN NYC, AND SW LONG
ISLAND) FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER, WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. 3 KM NAM AND HRW NSSL MAY
BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH A LINE DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW CT, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
MEAGER LAPSE RATES, BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. DRY
AIR IN THE MIXED LAYER AND A MID LEVEL CAP ARE ALSO LIMITING
FACTORS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND
THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A LOW- TOPPED THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES, WIDESPREAD RAIN STAYS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. EASTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND LI HAVE CHANCES OF ABOUT 30 TO 50
PERCENT, BUT FALLING OFF TO THE WEST. THIS BY NO MEANS WILL BE
WASHOUT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH RESIDUAL 2-FT SE
SWELL, AND 2-FT S WIND WAVES.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS WILL LIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS
THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
MAINLY EXPECTING A VFR FORECAST. THE 00Z FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
LARGELY MOVED OFF OF THE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE WARM
FRONT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE IT
FROM THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP
TO ADDRESS THE MVFR CIGS INSTEAD OF A PREVAILING GROUP.
ALSO, CAN NOT RULE OUT A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
IN ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT KSWF, BUT THE CONFIDENCE OF
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
SW WINDS 10KT OR LESS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TOWARDS MIDDAY WITH
SOME TERMINALS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME NW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN AROUND 10KT OR LESS.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CONFIDENCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING PUSH.
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AT KGON, OTHERWISE VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY AT
KGON/KISP/KBDR/KSWF.
SATURDAY: CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS/MVFR MAINLY AT KGON/KISP/KBDR.
NW WINDS G20-25KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SUNDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN A NW FLOW. BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO
BE EAST OF MORICHES INLET. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING RELATIVELY QUIET
CONDITIONS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JP
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