086
FXUS61 KOKX 141829
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
229 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE
IN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH
IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A COLD FRONT FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND TO NY STATE WILL DROP SWD THRU THE
EVE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A FEW SHWRS POSSIBLE WITH SOME WEAK SBCAPE
TO AROUND 500 J/KG. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ATTEMPT TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY SHWRS TO SUSTAIN AFT
ABOUT 23Z WITHOUT THE UPR SUPPORT AS INSTABILITY IS LOST.
WINDS TNGT ARE WEAK EVEN WITH THE FROPA, SO SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY LATE.
AN NE/E FLOW SETS UP ON MON, ALONG WITH COOLER H85 TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS
ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT NOT BY MUCH.
OVERALL, NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM EXCEPT TO KEEP 20-30 POPS
FOR SHWRS THRU THIS AFTN - AS THE NBM WOULD HAVE BEEN DRY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AN E/NE FLOW CONTINUES THRU TUE NGT, WITH SPEEDS LESSENING TO
NEAR CALM ACROSS THE INTERIOR BOTH NIGHTS. COULD BE SOME PATCHY
FOG AS A RESULT. DRY WX MON NGT AND TUE WITH HIGH PRES STILL N
OF THE CWA. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN MY ATTEMPT
TO GET INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUE NGT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. HIGH TEMPS ARE FCST
TO GENERALLY BE BLW NORMAL WITH THE ATLC BASED FLOW, ESPECIALLY
ERN AREAS. MOST SPOTS EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE 50S BOTH NIGHTS
OUTSIDE OF THE CITY. STUCK WITH THE NBM.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE COAST AND PASSES TO THE EAST.
* DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
* COOL, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
A LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE LOW WILL THEN PASS TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY REMAINS DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH
LATE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND DISSIPATES
NEAR THE AREA IN THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR MONDAY.
VFR.
S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT,
THEN NE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE ESE AT 5-10
KT LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER WITH MINIMAL IMPACT.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WITH MVFR COND POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. AN ISOLATED TSTM MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE NYC METRO AND
COASTAL TERMINALS LATE WED NIGHT.
FRIDAY: VFR
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU MON. BUILDING SEAS COULD
PRODUCE SCA COND ON THE OCEAN TUE INTO WED AS A LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH OF AN INCREASING EASTERLY
FETCH TO GENERATE 5 FOOT SEAS, ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER OCEAN
WATERS WEST OF MORICHES INLET. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS STAY BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RIP CURRENT
RISK MONDAY IS MODERATE AS WAVES BUILD FROM AN INCREASING
EASTERLY FETCH. EXPECTING SURF HEIGHTS TO BE NEAR 1-2 FT TODAY
AND TO 2-3 FT ON MON.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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