591  
FXUS61 KOKX 302200  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
600 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. THE  
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT  
LIFTS UP INTO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO  
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY WILL  
SETTLE OFFSHORE BY LATE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS  
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON  
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
 
 
FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA WITH BAND OF  
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LONG  
ISLAND. INTENSITY OF THE RAIN HAS DECREASED OVERALL SINCE  
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE ALSO COME DOWN A BIT AS THE  
LINE HAS WORKED EAST, LIKELY FROM THE RAIN STABILIZING THE LOWER  
LEVELS A BIT AND LLJ SHIFTING TO THE EAST. THE CONVECTIVE LINE  
SHOULD CONTINUE WORKING EAST OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THERE WILL  
LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE THE TRIPLE  
POINT LOW MOVES OVERHEAD AND SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS LIKELY  
DEVELOP THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS  
OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST. WINDS THEN PICK UP OUT OF  
THE W AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  
 
THE REGION AVERAGES A WIDESPREAD 1.5-2.5 INCHES BY THIS TIME,  
WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES POSSIBLE .  
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR 50 IN NYC AND INTO THE 40S  
ELSEWHERE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
WIND PICK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW DEEPENS  
WHILE MOVING OUT OF NEW ENGLAND INTO ERN CANADA. STRONGEST WINDS  
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN/AROUND NYC FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH  
SOME SUSTAINED VALUES CLOSE TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH, AND  
LOWER VALUES INLAND BUT STILL GUSTING UP TO 35-40 MPH. ISSUED A  
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 12 NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT,  
INCLUDING IMPACT ON HALLOWEEN IN AREAS TO THE NORTH/WEST WHERE  
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER.  
 
ON SATURDAY, THERE WILL STILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE  
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING STRONG LOW AND BUILDING HIGH  
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. GUSTS 25-30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY, WITH THE  
HIGHER VALUES CLOSER TO THE NYC METRO AREA AND THE COAST. THE  
GRADIENT BEGINS RELAXING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO  
DIMINISH, WITH ANY LINGERING GUSTS ENDING ENDING AFTER SUNSET.  
 
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S BOTH FRI/SAT. LOW TEMPS FRI NIGHT  
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, THEN A LITTLE COOLER  
SAT NIGHT, 35-40 INLAND WITH SOME FROST, AND 40-45 FOR THE NYC  
METRO AREA AND THE COAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
KEY POINTS:  
 
* DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TO END THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 
* MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK. A COLD FRONT PASSAGE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY  
NIGHT.  
 
* TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY  
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND THE SURFACE WILL BRING DRY AND  
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  
WINDS WILL MUCH WEAKER COMPARED TO SATURDAY DUE TO A RELAXED  
PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. MOSTLY  
CLEAR CONDITIONS, DRY AIR, AND WEAK WINDS WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY  
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S INLAND AND  
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. SOME MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS  
IS LIKELY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING OFFSHORE.  
HIGHS MAY RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW  
60S.  
 
FOR MONDAY NIGHT, THE MODELING CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE  
HANDLING OF THE INTERACTION OF A DAMPENING SOUTHERN STREAM  
SHORTWAVE WITH AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. MOST OF  
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE WAVES FAR ENOUGH APART THAT  
ANY LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM PASSES WELL  
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
NORTHERN STREAM WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODEL  
CONSENSUS HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED A LOW CHANCE POP DURING  
THIS TIMEFRAME, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED  
PATTERN.  
 
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE RIDGING RETURNING INTO WEDNESDAY. SEASONABLY COOL  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER  
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT  
INTO FRIDAY.  
 
CONDITIONS AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS ARE EITHER MVFR OR IFR WITH  
SOME CONDITIONS BELOW IFR. THERE IS A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING  
ACROSS THE NYC TERMINALS, THIS LINE IS ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH  
AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. BEHIND THIS LINE, EXPECT THE WIND  
GUSTS TO DIMINISH A BIT AND POSSIBLY COME TO AN END. ALSO, ANY  
LLWS SHOULD COME TO AN END. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BACK  
TO MVFR BEHIND THIS LINE AS WELL. IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS  
FOR THIS LIKE TO REACH THE FAR EASTERN TERMINALS. WE SHOULD SEE  
DRIER CONDITIONS START TO FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE LINE.  
 
WINDS 25KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT, WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEHIND A  
LINE OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THIS LIKE HAS ALREADY MOVED ACROSS  
KEWR AND KTEB WHERE GUSTS HAVE TEMPORARILY COME TO AN ENDED.  
THE LINE IS OVER KJFK AND KLGA, AND WOULD EXPECT GUSTS TO END  
THERE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FURTHER EAST, EXPECT WINDS TO  
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS BECOMING MORE  
OCCASIONAL OR BRIEFLY ENDING FOR A PERIOD. WINDS BECOME SW TO W  
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 25-30KT. TIMING OF THE DIMINISHING AND  
SHIFTING WINDS IS UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON THE TIMING AND TRACK  
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER ON  
FRIDAY MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN  
30-40KT.  
 
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...  
 
AMENDMENTS FOR TIMING AND CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THIS  
EVENING.  
 
GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY  
TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
 
 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: VFR. W WINDS 15-25KT, G30-40KT, HIGHEST ALONG  
THE COAST.  
 
SATURDAY: VFR. W WINDS G20-30KT.  
 
SUNDAY: VFR.  
 
MONDAY: VFR EARLY. CHANCE OF MVFR LATE. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE IN  
THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
TUESDAY: MVFR EARLY, THEN IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR.  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
E-SE GALES WERE OCCURRING ON THE GREAT SOUTH BAY, EASTERN  
OCEAN, AND THE WRN/CENTRAL SOUND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND  
NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE. THESE WINDS SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD AHEAD  
OF THIS FEATURE. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WINDS LULL FOR A  
PERIOD TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE W LATE TONIGHT.  
GALES SHOULD RETURN TO ALL WATERS BY SAT AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE  
INTO TONIGHT, AND FOR SIMPLICITY'S SAKE REPLACED ANY GALE  
WATCHES WITH GALE WARNINGS, AND EXTENDED THOSE WARNINGS IN TIME  
TO RUN THROUGH FRI NIGHT ON ALL WATERS DESPITE THE LULL, AND  
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING ON THE OCEAN.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE NYC METRO AND HUDSON  
RIVER. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS  
ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE  
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A CONVECTIVE  
LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES WORKING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND  
SOUTHERN CT. AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 1.5-2.5 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH  
TONIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD NUISANCE FLOODING LIKELY. LOCAL AMTS  
AS HIGH AS 3-4 INCHES.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS OCCURRED WITH HIGH TIDE  
IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE LOWER NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS  
OF LONG ISLAND. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN MINOR FLOODING UP THE  
HUDSON RIVER WITH THE PIERMONT GAUGE WELL INTO THE MINOR  
CATEGORY. THE STRONGEST WINDS COINCIDED WITH HIGH TIDE ALLOWING  
FOR A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURGE. LOCALLY MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRED  
ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS/BACK BAYS OF NASSAU AND  
WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE  
THIS EVENING.  
 
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING  
ACROSS COASTAL FAIRFIELD AND COASTAL WESTCHESTER. LOCALLY MINOR  
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL BRONX AND ALONG EAST END OF  
LONG ISLAND.  
 
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH  
HIGH TIDE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AS WATER  
MAY NOT RECEDE QUICK ENOUGH WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WESTERLY.  
 
NO ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO  
THE WEEKEND.  
 
BREAKING WAVES OF 5-7 FT ALONG THE OCEANFRONT WILL RESULT IN  
BEACH EROSION FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS  
EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEANFRONT ACROSS EASTERN LONG  
ISLAND. MINOR DAMAGE TO DUNE STRUCTURES IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT  
FOR CTZ005>012.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ009.  
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT  
FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ071.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072-  
074-075-178-179.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080.  
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT  
FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-  
106-108.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-  
340-345.  
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...BG/DS  
NEAR TERM...BG/DS  
SHORT TERM...BG  
LONG TERM...DS  
AVIATION...BC  
MARINE...BG/DS  
HYDROLOGY...BG  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV/DS  
 
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