843
FXUS61 KOKX 230804
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
304 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AND ONLY SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL, MAINLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS,
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON.
2) ADDITIONAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH THE MONDAY
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MAJOR
COASTAL/SHORELINE IMPACTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF WESTERN LONG
ISLAND, TWIN FORKS OF LI, AND NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
3) A PASSING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER LOW PASSING CLOSE BY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
WINTRY PRECIP THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH MULTIPLE BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO PIVOT NW
OFF THE OCEAN AND ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT 6 HOURS ARE EXPECTED
TO FEATURE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WITH HOURLY RATES OF 2
TO 3 INCHES LIKELY. WHAT IS A BIGGER CHALLENGE IS EXACTLY HOW
FAR WEST THESE BANDS GET AND HOW LONG THEY STAY OVER A
PARTICULAR LOCATION. OUTSIDE OF THESE BANDS, THERE IS SUBSIDENCE
AND LIGHTER SNOWFALL. MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SEEN ANYWHERE FROM 7
TO 14 INCHES, BUT THERE WERE LOWER AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WE CAN EXPECT
ANOTHER 6 TO 12 INCHES, MUCH OF WHICH WILL COME THE NEXT 6 TO 9
HOURS. THE BACK EDGE ACROSS WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE ON THE LOW END, PERHAPS ANOTHER 4 INCHES. HIRES GUIDANCE
POINTING TO THIS AREA TO BE ALONG THE BACK EDGE IN THE
SUBSIDENCE OF THE STORM. IN ADDITION, DON'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A BRIEF FLASH OF LIGHTNING IN THE HEAVY BANDS. THERE HAVE BEEN
REPORTS FROM THE PUBLIC AS WELL FROM LIGHTNING DETECTION.
AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
BANDS ON THE BACKSIDE WILL DISSIPATE, BUT IT COULD TAKE SOME
TIME. HIRES GUIDANCE LOCKING ON TO AN AREA FROM EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW CT SOUTHWARD IN THE NYC/NJ
METRO. THESE BANDS IN PAST HISTORIC STORMS CAN OFTEN BE AREAS
OF EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH RATES, BUT CAN BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST.
ANY LINGERING SNOW BANDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING.
THE WIND FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH PEAK WINDS BEING THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH THE UPPER END ACROSS
FAR EASTERN LI AND SE CT. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY RAMP DOWN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE AIRMASS IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD WITH
HIGHS AROUND FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WIND CHILLS VALUES
WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF LI, LOWER NY HARBOR, AND THE
EASTERN BAYS ONLY ACHIEVED MINOR FLOOD BENCHMARKS THIS MORNING.
WINDS RAMPED UP SLOWER THAN FORECAST. THIS IS COMBINED WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW HAS KEPT WATER LEVELS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER THAN
EXPECTED. WE ARE SEEING A SIMILAR OCCURRENCE ACROSS LI SOUND.
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND
FROM RESIDUAL TIDAL PILING, AND ALONG THE TWIN FORKS, PARTICULARLY
THE NORTH SHORE OF THE SOUTH FORK OF LI AND ORIENT POINT.
ALONG THE OCEANFRONT, AREAS OF DUNE EROSION ARE LIKELY, WITH
LOCALIZED OVERWASHES POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3
AS A CLIPPER LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY, AN ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN ON WED. ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, RANGING FROM LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS LONG ISLAND, TO AROUND AN INCH IN NYC AND ALONG THE CT
COASTLINE, TO 1-2 INCHES NORTH/WEST OF THERE.
A STRONGER LOW MOVING FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
THU COULD BRING MORE WINTRY PRECIP. NBM THERMAL PROFILES WERE MAINLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW AND/OR RAIN. ANY SNOW AMTS SHOULD BE LIGHT,
NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MOST PLACES AND A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE INLAND NW OF NYC. EITHER WAY ADVISORIES COULD BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTH/WEST OF I-287 IN NJ/NY
AND ALONG THE I-84 CORRIDOR IN CT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S,
THEN TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR GRADUAL SNOW MELT EACH DAY, AND WITH MOSTLY SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING, SUBSEQUENT RE-FREEZE OF
SNOW MELT.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
**HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM MONDAY**
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH 1/4SM VISIBILITIES AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE SNOW
INTENSITY SHOULD START WEAKENING MONDAY MORNING AFTER 14-15Z
WITH SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFR/VLIFR
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR LIKELY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION, EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
NE WINDS QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 25-35 KT WITH GUSTS 35-45 KT
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
FOR NYC METRO TERMINALS, LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT TERMINALS.
GUSTS 50-55 KT POSSIBLE AT KJFK, KLGA, KISP, KBDR AND KGON LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LLWS ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT 2KFT 50-60 KT.
TOTAL FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR: 18-22 INCHES
KISP: 20-24 INCHES
KBDR/KGON: 15-20 INCHES
KSWF/KHPN: 12-18 INCHES
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF HEAVIEST SNOW AND LOWEST CONDITIONS MAY BE OFF BY 1-3
HOURS. AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
GUSTS 50 KT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING 20-28KT.
TUESDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN RAIN/SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER. RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE NEAR COAST WITH
SNOW POSSIBLE INLAND.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXPECT THE NY
HARBOR WHERE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN OCEAN ZONE (MORICHES INLET TO MONTAUK POINT). STRONG
WINDS WILL LEAD TO 14 TO 20 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN AND ABOUT 6 TO
10 INCHES ON THE LI SOUND.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY START IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED AS CONDITIONS STEP
DOWN.
SCA CONDITIONS LINGER INTO TUE MORNING ON THE ERN SOUND AND
PECONIC/GARDINERS BAYS, WITH NW FLOW STILL GUSTING UP TO 25 KT, AND
ON THE OCEAN FOR GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FOR SEAS 6-8 FT. SOME 5-6 FT SEAS
SHOULD LINGER ON THE OCEAN INTO EARLY TUE EVENING.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA COND THEN LIKELY ON THE OCEAN FROM WED
INTO FRI AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH, MAINLY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. SW FLOW 20-25 KT EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WITH WARM
FRONTAL APPROACHES DAYTIME WED AND AGAIN THU NIGHT.
ALONG THE OCEANFRONT, AREAS OF DUNE EROSION ARE LIKELY, WITH
LOCALIZED OVERWASHES POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
WITH THE POTENTIAL MAJOR SNOWSTORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOWFALL RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR THE CLIMATE SITES:
SUN 2/22 MON 2/23
CENTRAL PARK, NY: 6.0/2008 4.8/1972
LAGUARDIA, NY: 6.4/2008 4.1/1972
JOHN F KENNEDY, NY: 6.9/2008 6.1/1987
NEWARK, NJ: 6.8/2008 4.1/1987
ISLIP, NY: 5.5/2008 6.7/1987
BRIDGEPORT, CT: 7.0/2008 2.6/1987
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ009-010.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ011-012.
NY...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ079-081.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR NYZ079>081-179.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ080-179.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-332-340-
345-350-353-355.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ335.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/DW
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