569
FXUS61 KOKX 221814
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
214 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND, POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
2) AFTER POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY, PROLONGED STRETCH OF
MAINLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSER TO NORMAL.
3) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND, POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE WEATHER PATTERN TAKING
SHAPE FOR THIS WEEKEND IS UNSETTLED FEATURING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.
DEEP SHEAR PRESENT MUCH OF THE TIME FOR THE AREA NEAR 30-35 KT.
500MB FORECAST MODEL CHARTS INDICATE A FASTER DECLINE OF
HEIGHTS TONIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES TODAY AND THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST
OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, BEHIND ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT,
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WAVE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALSO PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE
MODEL PWATS INDICATE NEAR 2 INCHES WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE,
THE PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE AND CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXHIBIT A SUFFICIENT TRANSLATIONAL SPEED TO MITIGATE FLOODING
POTENTIAL.
ALSO RELATED TO THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST WHICH FOR TONIGHT IS MORE ACROSS PARTS OF LONG ISLAND
WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS HIGHER.
OVERALL, EXPECT ANY FLOODING TO STAY MINOR NUISANCE WITHIN URBAN,
LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
HOWEVER, THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STILL BE NEAR THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
BUT WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING SUNDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
TRENDING HIGHER AND THE AIR WILL BE MORE HUMID. DESPITE THIS, PWATS
ARE ACTUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY
MORE SHEAR COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY. CAPE WILL BE LIMITED WITH
ALL THE CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
STILL THOUGH IN THIS LOW CAPE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, A THUNDERSTORM
COULD QUICKLY MATURE AND BECOME STRONG WITH A QUICK DOWNBURST OF
WIND. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE
DECREASING MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH
EXPANSION OF CONVECTION AND LIMIT ITS COVERAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
AFTER POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY, PROLONGED STRETCH OF
MAINLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO
CLOSER TO NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
STILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MONDAY WITH DEEP
TROUGH CUTOFF LOW MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE CENTER OF
THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE POPS WILL BE PRETTY LOW WITH THIS
FRONT AND A LOT OF LOCATIONS MAY VERY WELL END UP STAYING DRY.
MODELS COHERENT ON AN AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING INTO
THE LOCAL REGION MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE
IS A LOT OF WESTERLY FLOW, MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO DEPICT MUCH IF
ANY PRECIPITATION AND WHY THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS IS DRY.
HOWEVER, THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL PRESENT STRONG FORCING FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. COVERAGE ONLY ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED FOR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MORE HEIGHT RISES SEEN IN THE MID LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE IS EVIDENT WITHIN THE FORECAST MODELS OF A
TRANSITION FROM CYCLONIC CUTOFF LOW TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE, AFTER THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW GETTING ESTABLISHED WITHIN
THE ATMOSPHERE.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TOWARDS THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RETURN TO A MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, PASSING THROUGH SOME TERMINALS
SUNDAY MORNING.
VFR THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT MVFR EAST OF THE CITY. ALL TERMINALS
LOWER TO IFR LATE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER
AS EARLY AS EARLY THIS EVENING, BETTER OVERALL CHANCES (NOTED
WITH PROB30) START AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER AND SUBSEQUENT APPROACH OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT/TROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
WINDS MAINLY E TO SE UNDER 10KT THROUGH TONIGHT, SHIFTING
BRIEFLY SE TO S SUNDAY MORNING, THEN SW BY AROUND NOONTIME FOR
MOST TERMINALS. TERMINALS EAST OF NYC SHIFT SW LATER IN THE DAY.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
SHIFT TO E-SE AT KLGA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. FOR ALL
TERMINALS, IFR MIGHT NOT HAPPEN TONIGHT WITH CONDS INSTEAD
REMAINING MVFR.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY: VFR WITH SW GUSTS 15-20KT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR. SW GUSTS AROUND 20KT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY: VFR AM, CHANCE OF SUB-VFR AND -SHRA PM.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CONDITIONS ON THE FORECAST MARINE ZONES STAY BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.
RIP CURRENTS: THE RIP CURRENT RISK WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS TODAY
LOOKS TO BE OVERALL LOW. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY,
MORE OF A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED. THE SWELL WILL
STILL HAVE SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY COMPONENTS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
AVIATION...JC
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