388
FXUS61 KOKX 091919
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
319 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MAINLY DRY AND MILD THROUGH SATURDAY.
2. POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY.
3. MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS LIKELY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY BENIGN PERIOD OF WEATHER AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT, SENDING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
WEAK FORCING SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
TO SCATTERED. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN CT. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE BRIEF.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND/OR
MOVE IN FROM THE OCEAN TONIGHT. ANY FOG AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE
PATCHY IN NATURE AND SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY FRIDAY
MORNING. PER COLLABORATION WITH STATE LAND MANAGERS, RH VALUES
AND WINDS ON FRIDAY DO NOT WARRANT ANY SPECIAL PRODUCTS AT THIS
TIME FOR POTENTIAL WILDFIRE SPREAD.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, BUT WARMING UP INTO THE 60S
FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST ON FRIDAY, BUT COOLER AT THE
COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE WATER. IT WILL COOL DOWN
SOME ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE, HOWEVER, A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL ALLOW COASTAL LOCATIONS
TO WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60. SUNDAY WILL COOL DOWN
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE COMBINATION OF NW WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH, MINIMUM RH
VALUES OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT, AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE, WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD SATURDAY. NO
SPECIAL PRODUCTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL BE IN
COLLABORATION WITH STATE LAND MANAGERS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WENT ABOVE NBM FOR WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS/DEW POINTS AS IT TYPICALLY
UNDERDOES THESE IN A WELL-MIXED NW FLOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP FOR
NEXT WEEK. H85 TEMPS INCREASE ABV 10C, AND WITH A GENERAL WLY
FLOW, ALL AREAS SHOULD WARM UP PRETTY GOOD, EVEN THE COASTS. SEA
BREEZES WILL LIKELY STILL KICK IN LATE IN THE DAY, BUT THERE
ARE SOME PERIODS WHERE THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
HOLD IT OFF FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE SHORE. STUCK WITH THE NBM,
BUT THESE NUMBERS MAY BE TOO LOW BASED ON THE FLOW. THE AI-GFS
STANDS OUT WITH 17-18C AT H85 ON WED WHICH WOULD BE WIDESPREAD
80S WITH A FEW SPOTS TOUCHING 90.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.
VFR THRU THE REST OF THE DAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY DEVELOP
AFTER 3Z TONIGHT WITH LOW STRATUS. MIST AND FOG COULD ALSO
LEAD TO VSBY RESTRICTIONS, AND TEMPO ADDED FOR FRI AM PUSH
UNTIL 13Z.
S FLOW 10-12 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT INTO EARLY EVENING. GUSTS
MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL. SSW/SW FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY, INCREASING
SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL.
MVFR-IFR CIGS LIKELY FOR FRI AM PUSH. POSSIBLE FOG/MIST COULD
LEAD TO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY: VFR. SSW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH AND WEST OF NYC TERMINALS.
SATURDAY: VFR. NW GUST 20 TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY: VFR.
MONDAY: VFR. SW GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY AND A BUILDING EASTERLY SWELL COULD BRING SEAS
ON THE OCEAN TO AROUND 5 FT BY FRIDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS LOOK
TO FALL SHORT OF SCA CRITERIA DUE TO A STRONG INVERSION OVER
THE WATERS, MAINLY AROUND 20 KT. NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY SHOULD ALSO STAY BELOW 25 KT, HOWEVER, GUSTS RIGHT
NEAR THE LAND WILL BE CLOSE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO NOT ISSUE A SCA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW MAY PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS MON, ESPECIALLY
ON THE OCEAN. THEREAFTER, WINDS AND SEAS WILL HOVER NEAR SCA LVLS ON
THE OCEAN, WITH WINDS GENERALLY BLW SCA LVLS ELSEWHERE. SPEEDS COULD
APPROACH SCA LVLS EACH DAY AT THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND ENTRANCE TO
THE HARBOR DUE TO SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JMC/DW
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JMC/DW
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