344
FXUS61 KOKX 301727
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
127 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETS UP TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA IN A
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL
ADVECT IN A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS LEADING TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARMING TREND.
POPS HAVE INCREASED A BIT EACH DAY ALONG WITH SKY COVER. THIS HAS
LED TO SOME FLUCTUATION IN FORECAST TEMPERATURES BUT THE STORY
REMAINS THE SAME. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH WEDNESDAY'S TEMPERATURES BEING 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS USUAL WITH THIS TIME OF YEAR, DUE TO
THE COLD WATERS (STILL UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S) TEMPERATURES ACROSS
LI AND COASTAL CT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER EACH DAY THAN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY GIVEN
SMALL NBM SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES (GENERALLY
ABOUT 3 DEGREES). SPREAD IS A FEW DEGREES MORE FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN
POTENTIAL FRONT TIMING/POP/CLOUD ISSUES, MORE SPECIFICALLY FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. THEREAFTER SPREAD INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON A LINGERING FRONT NEAR THE
AREA/FRONTAL WAVE LATE IN THE WEEK.
SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR POTENTIAL RECORD HIGH AND RECORD
HIGH MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND
LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE MOVING THROUGH AS A COLD FRONT.
THEREAFTER THE FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE AREA, WITH A POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SETUP WILL
BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST CAMS HAVE BEEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS ROUND AND POPS HAVE INCREASED. WEAK LIFT IS
EVIDENT IN A MOISTENING COLUMN. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY, MAINLY LIGHT. QPF FROM THIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WHEN THE FRONT TO OUR
NORTH START TO MOVE THROUGH AS A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GREATER LIFT AND EVEN SOME TALL SKINNY
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN MORE OF A POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
THEREAFTER, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN EXACTLY WHERE THE
FRONT GETS HUNG UP. THIS WILL IMPACT POPS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT. THIS IS THE
RESULT OF TIMING AND FRONTAL LOCATION DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
SSW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS AND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT THE
NYC/COASTAL TERMINAL WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE AT KJFK
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTS SHOULD END AROUND 00Z
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING BELOW 10 KT OVERNIGHT.
WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN FROM THE SW TUESDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KT.
MAINLY VFR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING,
BECOMING MORE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF MVFR AT KSWF.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS COULD LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY
AT KJFK.
ADJUSTMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS. SW-SSW WIND GUSTS
15-25 KT, STRONGEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCE OF MVFR OR
LOWER AND CHANCE OF LLWS AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER AND LLWS EARLY. MVFR OR
LOWER WITH SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. SW GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. E WIND
GUSTS 20 KT POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR. S WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN/SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
MULTIPLE TIMES AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS
FOR TODAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO NEARSHORE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT.
THERE WILL BE OTHER CHANCES THIS WEEK FOR SOME NON-OCEAN WATERS TO
SEE SCA CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS MARGINAL.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 1:
KEWR: 82/1978
KBDR: 71/1955
KNYC: 83/1917
KLGA: 80/1978
KJFK: 75/1978
KISP: 67/1999
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 31:
KEWR: 63/1998
KBDR: 50/1998
KNYC: 66/1998
KLGA: 59/1998
KJFK: 51/1981
KISP: 52/1998
APRIL 1:
KEWR: 62/2016
KBDR: 53/2016
KNYC: 61/2016
KLGA: 56/2016
KJFK: 52/2016
KISP: 54/2016
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JT
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