483
FXUS61 KOKX 170814
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
314 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES
EARLY TONIGHT. A BRIEF BUILDING OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST GRADUALLY
BUILDS IN TOWARDS THE START OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY POINTS
* DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
* AIRMASS FURTHER MODERATES TODAY. EXPECT MORE SUBSTANTIAL MELTING
OF THE CURRENT SNOW COVER TODAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE 40S.
UPPER LEVEL AND MID LEVEL QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK
STEERING FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT, ALONG WITH ITS MAIN AREA OF
VERTICAL FORCING, ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC. MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES
AS VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE DEEPER. FOR TODAY, MAX TEMPERATURES
FORECAST ARE WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS, OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE
SETTING UP. USED MAV/MET BLEND TO CONVEY A MORE VAST RANGE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES, ILLUSTRATING THE VARIANCE OF RADIATIVE COOLING ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION BETWEEN URBAN HEAT ISLAND AND RURAL OUTLYING
LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY.
* RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS IN PLACE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
* STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTLINE. GUSTS COULD REACH NEAR 45 TO
50 MPH, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 55 MPH IN SOME SPOTS.
* A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO PROBABLE WITH POTENTIAL
SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM.
* STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS PICKING
UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY. THE PARENT LOW WILL BE MOVING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONG AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EARLY
FRIDAY.
MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
FOLLOWING BY DECREASING TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL THUS EXHIBIT A NON-DIURNAL TREND. FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME, THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN, POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION, SOME SNOW MAY MIX
IN WITH THE RAIN, MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR BEFORE ALL
PRECIPITATION CONCLUDES.
WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT, A VERY STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE INITIALLY LIMITED DUE TO
INVERSIONS IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT COULD MIX DOWN MORE WITH
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH HEAVIER RAIN. RELATIVELY
STRONGER WINDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION INCREASING. GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LOOKING MORE
PROBABLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME GUSTS EXCEEDING 55 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE
JUST AHEAD, ALONG AND BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS INDICATED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST FOR EARLY
FRIDAY SO THERE COULD BE AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM. COVERAGE FOR THIS
IS LOW SO JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE POSSIBILITY.
MODELS INDICATE NEAR ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES EARLY FRIDAY WITH MEAN
MUCAPE IN THE LREF SHOWN TO INCREASE TO NEAR 70 J/KG EARLY FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN GRADUALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. LOWS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. HIGHS FORECAST ON SATURDAY WILL ALSO
BE MUCH COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
ANY LEFTOVER SNOWMELT FRIDAY AND MOISTURE LADEN GROUNDS MAY HAVE
SOME PATCHES THAT BECOME FROZEN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW FREEZING. A MITIGATING FACTOR TO THIS WOULD BE IF
THE WINDS KEEP STAYING UP TO DRY OUT THE SURFACES BEFORE THEY
FREEZE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY POINT:
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LITTLE WARMER ON SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYS, THEN COLDER ON
MON WITH HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 30S BEHIND THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. A DRY FROPA IS MODELED ATTM WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL AGAIN ON TUE WITH THE NEXT WEAK SYS
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PCPN.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY,
PASSING TO THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
VFR.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT AT KGON WHICH MAY
GUST TO AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO
AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN
DIMINISH AROUND 00Z THURSDAY AND SHIFT TO THE WNW AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS BECOME MORE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND NOON
TODAY. HOWEVER, IT IS MARGINAL WITH SW WINDS AT 2 KFT FROM AROUND 45
KT, WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 50 KT. HAVE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD ARE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY: VFR, POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER LATE IN THE DAY. S
WINDS G15-20 KT LATE DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: IFR WITH RAIN. S WINDS G20-25 KT IN THE EVENING,
INCREASING TO 25-40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LLWS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY: RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR, THEN RAIN ENDING WITH
VFR. S TO SW WINDS G35-45 KT IN THE MORNING, SHIFTING W G25-35 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. LLWS EARLY.
SATURDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY: VFR. W WINDS G20-25 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HAZARDS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES UNTIL 11PM THIS EVENING. TO EAST
OF FIRE ISLAND INLET, THE SCA FOR THOSE OCEAN ZONES GO UNTIL 3AM
THURSDAY. FOR NON-OCEAN WATERS, SCA GOES INTO EFFECT AT 7AM THIS
MORNING AND GOES UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION, A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, 6PM THURSDAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT, LASTING
LONGEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES WHERE SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. A BRIEF TIME WINDOW OF BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS
AND SEAS RAMP UP QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS AND WIND GUSTS ARE
THE HIGHEST FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE GOING ON A MORE
DECREASING TREND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
FORECAST ACROSS ALL WATERS MAINLY IN A WINDOW FROM LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SOME PARTS OF THE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY
COULD GET TO LOW END STORM CRITERIA (48-50 KT) BUT MUCH OF THE TIME
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR WITHIN GALE RANGE.
A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THE NON OCEAN WATERS SAT NIGHT AS
WELL AS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO MON. A PERIOD OF
GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS AS WELL AS ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BE QUICK MOVING AND AS SUCH, ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF RAINFALL.
AROUND 1 INCH TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, NO OTHER HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE INCREASING WITH A NEW MOON OCCURRING
FRIDAY EVENING. THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MAY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BACK BAYS DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH A SLOWER TIMING TIDAL PILING WILL BE INCREASED AND THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS. AT THIS TIME COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED
ALONG THE SHORES OF THE LONG ISLAND SOUND. THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE IS THE ONLY ONE THAT WILL BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTED AT THIS
TIME AS THE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS LOWER, AND WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE WESTERLY AT THAT TIME.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page