594
FXUS61 KOKX 130551
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
151 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AFT/EVE FOR ENTRANCE
OF NY HARBOR, GREAT SOUTH BAY, AND NEARSHORE WESTERN OCEAN
WATERS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS INCREASED FOR THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZE CONDITIONS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
WITH SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. POTENTIAL FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
2) DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS FOR THIS
WEEKEND WITH GOOD BOATING WEATHER, AND WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE
LOWER 50S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
GOOD AGREEMENT IN A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET, DIGGING
A TROUGH THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE REGION THU INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE,
RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND SE ONTARIO
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH IT TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. WEAK SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE REGION THURSDAY UNDER THE
DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW, SLOW SLIDING EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
HAVE S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WED AFT/EVE. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 45 MPH
POSSIBLE FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND WESTERN LI WITH STRONG COASTAL JET
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS FROM W TO
E WED EVE/NIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT STALLS OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHUNT WCB OFFSHORE AND
LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM, BUT POTENTIAL IS STILL
THERE FOR A MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA EARLY THU AM INTO THU EVE. MODEL GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC SET-UP
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL INTENSITIES TO INCREASE
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IT WASHES OUT THU AM AND THEN
AS CONTINUE IN A MORE BANDED AND CONVECTIVE FASHION THU
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. WPC URRD INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF 1/2 TO
1" HOURLY RATES LATER THU MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL/COLD
POOL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. GENERALLY EXPECTING BASIN AVERAGE OF 0.50-
1" OF RAINFALL THROUGH THU NIGHT, MOSTLY FALLING EARLY THU AM INTO
THU EVENING, BUT COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS OF 1.5-2" IF/WHERE
DOWNPOURS/EMBEDDED TSTMS ACTIVITY IS MOST PERSISTENT. LOW
PREDICTABILITY ON EXACT LOCATION AT THIS POINT, BUT SHOULD HAVE MORE
DETAIL AS THE EVENT IS RESOLVED BY HIGH-RES CAMS OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HRS.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES NORTHEAST THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. PRECIP WILL LIKELY DISSIPATING THU NIGHT WITH STABILIZING
LOW-LEVELS AND THEN POTENTIALLY RE-DEVELOPING FRIDAY AM INTO
AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON CLOSED LOW POSITIONS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS.
PEA-SIZE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TRANSITION FROM PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW
THIS WEEKEND WITH STRONG WAA PATTERN UNDER DEEP W/SW FLOW
ALOFT, AND THEN BUILD-IN OF SOUTHERN UPPER RIDGING BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SUN AFT AND CROSSES SUN EVE. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
ON SATURDAY (LOWER 80S NE NJ AND ADJACENT NYC METRO). WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE 80S (EVEN FOR THE COAST) WITH DEEP MIXING AND OFFSHORE
FLOW.
COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND AS WATER TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY
CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE
SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE GOING OUT ON SMALL
BOATS, CANOES OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME
CAUTION TO AVOID THIS THREAT.
SIGNAL FOR BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO PASS NE TO SW THRU THE ENTIRE
AREA SUN NIGHT, BEFORE WORKING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. SO DESPITE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT AND 850HPA TEMPS
RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS, AIR TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL
LIKELY BE NOTABLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY FOR THE CITY/COAST WITH
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE LOWER 50 DEGREES WATERS. TEMPS ALONG THE
SOUTH AND EAST COAST MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, AND
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S/LOWER 70S. AREAS FARTHER WEST OF
THE HUDSON R SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE
70S/LOWER 80S.
POTENTIAL FOR WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR (PARTICULARLY AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COASTS) ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP SW FLOW AND MIXING
DOWN OF 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS. TEMPS COULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 90S-95 ACROSS THE NYC/NJ METRO AND 80S ELSEWHERE. TDS
APPEAR TO STILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S, WHICH SHOULD KEEP HI NEAR
AIR TEMP.
TEMPERATURES RISING TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE SAT THU MON
AND POTENTIALLY 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THERE
MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES FOR SOME TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CHANCES OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS INCREASE TONIGHT. KSWF
ALSO HAS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER,
MAINLY AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. IF THUNDER WERE TO OCCUR, THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
TERMINALS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS AT OR UNDER 5 KTS WITH MORE
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE TO NEAR 10-15 KT DURING THE MORNING AND THEN NEAR 15-20
KT FOR THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN THE MORNING NEAR 20 KT ARE
EXPECTED AND THEN THE GUSTS INCREASE TO NEAR 25 TO 30 KT FOR THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST GUSTS FOR KJFK AND KISP
WHICH WILL BE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH SW WINDS 45-50 KT AT 2KFT AGL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AT KISP, KBDR AND KGON. SIMILAR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KHPN AND KJFK AS WELL BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN TAFS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO TODAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS EARLY THURSDAY AM.
PATCHY FOG. MVFR BECOMING LIKELY. OCCASIONAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTS NEAR 20 KT DIMINISHING. LLWS
POSSIBLE WITH SW WINDS 40-45 KT AT 2KFT IN THE EVENING NEAR THE
COAST.
THURSDAY: SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NW
WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SATURDAY: VFR. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
SUNDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY OCCUR FOR THE
ENTRANCE OF NY HARBOR AND ADJACENT OCEAN WATERS AND SOUTH SHORE
BAYS. OTHERWISE, SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR ALL WATERS AND LIKELY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
THE OCEAN FOR SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES. MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY FOR THE ENTRANCE OF NY HARBOR AND ADJACENT OCEAN
WATERS AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS WED AFT/EVE WITH HYBRID
SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE CIRCULATION.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A LIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A RETURN TO SUB
ADVISORY WINDS.GENERALLY SUB ADVISORY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH MARGINAL NEARSHORE SCA GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON AND SUN FRO OFFSHORE FLOW.
SCA OCEAN SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE
TO E/SE SWELLS FROM OFFSHORE LOW AND EXITING COASTAL LOW.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-340.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ338-345-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.
DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...NV
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