640  
FXUS61 KOKX 222304  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
704 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STAYS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, AND  
THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH  
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN  
RETURN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
 
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND WITH INSTABILITY  
AND ANOMALOUS HUMIDITY IN PLACE. A FEW OF THESE IN THE EARLY EVENING  
COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS BEING THE  
PRIMARY HAZARD, ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY STAYS LOCKED UP NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE  
SOME FORCING IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERNMOST AND  
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CAMS HAVE HAD SOME  
INCONSISTENCIES AROUND WHETHER CONVECTION LINGERS OR RE-FIRES UP  
DURING A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE NO MORE 25-30 KT  
SO NOT CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED CONVECTION, HOWEVER WITH MULTIPLE WEAK  
BOUNDARIES AROUND AND A VERY HUMID AIR MASS WHERE IT DOES NOT TAKE  
MUCH TO INITIATE OR RE-FIRE AND SOME INTERACTION WITH ANY OUTFLOW  
COULD KEEP THING GOING SOME. STEERING FLOW LOOKS TO BE ON THE WEAKER  
SIDE, SO ANY STORMS SHOULD NOT BE FAST MOVING SO LOCALIZED FLASH  
FLOODING WITH ANY SLOWER MOVING AND MORE INTENSE CONVECTION IS A  
CONCERN. IN ANY EVENT, IT WILL BE A RATHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT.  
ALSO, LIKE LAST NIGHT WHERE RAIN OCCURS CAUSING A WET GROUND THERE  
VERY WELL MAY BE PATCHES OF FOG IN PLACES. DON'T HAVE THIS IN THE  
FORECAST AS SYNOPTIC FLOW MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS  
NIGHT AND MAY PRECLUDE THIS, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.  
 
LOWS OVERNIGHT REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEW POINT READINGS  
HOVERING AROUND 70. THEREFORE NO MEANINGFUL RELIEF TONIGHT AS LOWS  
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 ACROSS A FEW INTERIOR AND EASTERN COASTAL  
SECTIONS, TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NYC AND PORTIONS OF THE NE NJ  
METRO.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE REGION SHOULD GET EVEN MORE INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY AS  
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IN TERMS OF THIS STRETCH  
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY, THIS SHOULD BE THE MOST UNCOMFORTABLE DAY  
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE CONTINUE HEAT HEADLINES FOR  
ONE MORE DAY, AND ADDED SO. NASSAU, SO. NEW HAVEN, AND SO  
MIDDLESEX AS TEMPS JUST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE SHORE SHOULD BE  
ABLE TO REACH 95 HEAT INDICE CRITERIA FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE DAYS  
THIS WEEKEND, THUS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THESE SOUTHERN  
ZONES ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ADVISORY. ONLY FAR EASTERN  
COASTAL SECTIONS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADV CRITERIA ON  
SUNDAY.  
 
THE CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION  
INCREASE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DESPITE THE FACT THAT  
STORM COVERAGE WITH CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ISN'T ALL THAT  
IMPRESSIVE. THERE SHOULD BE BETTER PRIMING OF THE OVERALL  
ENVIRONMENT AS HEIGHT FALLS IN INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. THE WINDS INCREASE ALOFT, THUS BETTER BULK SHEAR SHOULD  
LEAD TO MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY  
STORMS BEING STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH HAIL AND AN ISOLATED  
TORNADO POSSIBLE BUT ON THE LOWER END OF THE THREAT SCALE. STORM  
MODE WILL LIKELY BE MULTICELL, WITH A MORE LINEAR / BROKEN LINEAR  
MODE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING AS FORCING INCREASES. A MIXED MODE OF  
CLUSTER / SUPERCELL CANNOT BE RULED OUT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE  
CWA. HODOGRAPH CURVATURE CARVES OUT MORE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY  
FURTHER NORTH ON SUNDAY. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR  
A LITTLE MORE THAN HALF THE AREA, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FURTHER  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE A  
CONCERN AS WELL WITH ANY STORMS. WITH THE FASTER FLOW ALOFT STORMS  
SHOULD MOVE ALONG AS ANY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WOULD BE MORE  
FROM REPEAT / TRAINING STORMS AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD MOVE FASTER  
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY. WITH THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE  
ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS LIKELY JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE  
AREA AND A WARM CLOUD LAYER EASILY ABOVE 11 KFT INSTANTANEOUS  
RAINFALL RATES COULD BE RATHER HIGH, AND A POTENTIAL ISSUE FOR THE  
MORE URBAN ENVIRONMENTS IN TERMS OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.  
OVERALL THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT COVERAGE WISE APPEARS LIMITED DUE TO  
THE FASTER NATURE OF THE STORMS, BUT ONE OR TWO ISOLATED CASES  
REMAIN A CONCERN. FOR MORE ON POTENTIAL HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS SEE THE  
HYDROLOGY SECTION.  
 
THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT LATE  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A PRE-FRONTAL  
TROUGH LINGERING WHICH MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL  
CONVECTION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. HOW MUCH ANY PREVIOUS  
CONVECTION HAS WORKED OVER THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BE THE  
DETERMINANT AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTION CAN OCCUR DURING THE NIGHT.  
GETTING TOWARDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO WORK  
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH THE HUMID AIRMASS STILL IN  
PLACE LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD 70S FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES.  
 
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT GETTING TO THE EAST BY MID  
TO LATE MORNING LOOK FOR A DRIER N TO NW FLOW. THERE SHOULD STILL BE  
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CUMULUS AS THE COOLER AIR ALOFT SHOULD BE IN PLACE  
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LAGGING BEHIND A BIT. DEW POINT  
READINGS TOWARDS AFTERNOON SHOULD GET INTO THE LOWER 60S, AND MAY  
EVEN LOWER A BIT MORE INTO THE UPPER 50S OR THEREABOUT WITH  
POTENTIALLY MORE MIXING DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. IT WILL STILL BE A VERY  
WARM DAY, JUST NOT AS OPPRESSIVE AND HEAT HEADLINES NOT ANTICIPATED.  
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL LAGGING BEHIND LOW END CHANCE  
POPS SEEMS PRUDENT WITH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER POSSIBILITY  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN MOST PLACES SHOULD TOP OUT  
WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES DUE TO A LAND BASED WIND TRAJECTORY  
OUT OF THE W AND NW.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
KEY POINTS:  
 
* TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE  
EXTENDED PERIOD.  
 
* A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL  
FROM LATE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  
 
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE THINKING WITH THE EXTENDED  
FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE, AND FOLLOWED THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS  
CLOSELY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON TUESDAY GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW  
BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE  
AREA ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING AGAIN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
MUCH OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY, SAVE FOR A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT  
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELED  
PWATS OF CLOSE TO 2" ALONG WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT WOULD  
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE AREA AS THE FRONT  
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. MODEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALSO LOOK  
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT; THOUGH THIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT  
LIMITED GIVEN THE NIGHTTIME APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM. THE FRONT PASSES  
THURSDAY, WITH A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND  
WESTERLY FLOW TO END THE WEEK.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR 90F ACROSS THE URBAN  
CORRIDOR OF NYC AND NJ AND UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN  
THE MID TO UPPER 60S, THIS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS. THEREAFTER, THE FRONT  
PASSES THROUGH AND THURSDAY/FRIDAY ARE A BIT COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE  
AVERAGE, IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.  
 
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A NEARLY  
STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS NORTH OF THE REGION.  
 
MAINLY VFR THIS EVE, HOWEVER SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL PRODUCE  
MVFR OR LOWER WHERE THEY OCCUR. THE CONVECTION GENERALLY  
DISSIPATES EVERYWHERE BY 3Z OR SO, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AT  
LEAST ISOLD TSTMS OVERNIGHT. STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY  
LATE ONCE AGAIN AT SOME TERMINALS, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS AT  
NYC TERMINALS AND HAVE OMITTED FOR NOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY  
LATE SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
S OR SW FLOW TNGT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AT OR UNDER 10 KT.  
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR TSTMS.  
STRENGTHENING FLOW ON SUNDAY, INCREASING TO NEAR 15G25KT BY  
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON OR  
EARLY EVENING.  
 
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...  
 
CLUSTER OF TSTMS MAY REACH JFK/LGA BY 3Z, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW  
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. TEMPO FOR EWR AND TEB.  
 
TIMING OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE HOURS.  
 
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY AM IF LOW STRATUS OR  
FOG IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.  
 
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH MVFR  
CONDITIONS. S-SW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST.  
 
MONDAY: MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
TUESDAY: VFR.  
 
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT, WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.  
 
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE EARLY.  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS ALL WATERS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF  
TONIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL BEGIN CLIMBING ON THE OCEAN WITH SMALL  
CRAFT SEAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING. BY EARLY  
AFTERNOON SUNDAY SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DEVELOP FOR A GOOD  
PORTION OF THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS, WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF NY  
HARBOR WITH GUSTS 25, TO EVEN 30 KTS FURTHER EAST. OCEAN SEAS  
APPROACH 8 FT LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES  
MONDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE  
NEARSHORE WATERS, BUT SEAS AND GUSTS SLOWER TO SUBSIDE ON THE OCEAN  
WATERS. TOWARDS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEAS SHOULD  
EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE ENOUGH FOR SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO RETURN  
TO THE OCEAN WATERS.  
 
WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS  
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEANS TO  
APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA,  
WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF CT INTO THIS EVENING. A  
MARGINAL RISK WILL CONTINUE FOR MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH A VERY HUMID  
AIRMASS IN PLACE ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH  
ISOLATED LOCAL INSTANCES OF UP TO A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE IN A SHORT  
TIME.  
 
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM LATE DAY WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE  
REGION.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
THERE WILL BE A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR  
ALL OCEAN BEACHES WITH HIGHER WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE SHORELINE  
WITH A S TO SW WIND WAVE ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS BECOMING MORE OFFSHORE  
ON MONDAY, BUT WITH THE HIGH RISK CONTINUING.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
HERE ARE CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...  
 
SUNDAY, JUNE 23  
 
NYC: 96(1888)  
LGA: 95(1965)  
JFK: 94(2010)  
EWR: 97(1965)  
ISP: 91(1999)  
BDR: 91(2010)  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ005>011.  
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ067>075-078-176>179.  
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY  
EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.  
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY  
NIGHT FOR ANZ331-332-335-340-345.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR  
ANZ350-353-355.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JE/DBR  
NEAR TERM...JE  
SHORT TERM...JE  
LONG TERM...DBR  
AVIATION...JMC/DR  
MARINE...JE/DBR  
HYDROLOGY...JE/DBR  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
CLIMATE...  
 
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