456
FXUS61 KOKX 030232
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1032 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM LAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FROST CONDITIONS FOR AREAS WELL N&W OF NYC TONIGHT.
2) ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.
3) MODERATING TEMPS FOR MONDAY, RISING TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE ON TUESDAY.
4) A SLOW-MOVING, STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, WITH NW WINDS
PICKING UP FOR URBAN AND COASTAL AREAS LATE. DECENT AGREEMENT
ON A WINDOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS AREAS WELL N&W OF NYC
TONIGHT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE MID 30S,
AND PROMOTE FROST FORMATION. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE
DAMAGED OR KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE COMBINATION OF DRYING FINE FUELS, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND. THIS
FORECAST CONSIDERS METEOROLOGICAL, FUEL, AND LAND CONDITIONS AND
HAS BEEN DEVELOPED IN COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE AND LAND
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY, WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH AND THEN
OFFSHORE OF THE AREAS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH A DEEP AND GUSTY
SW FLOW ADVECTING IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AREAWIDE FOR
MONDAY.
850 HPA TEMPS RISE TO 11 TO 13C ON TUESDAY, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR NYC METRO
AND INTERIOR FOR TUESDAY, WHILE A MORE BACKED S/SW FLOW KEEPS
SOUTH COASTAL AREAS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 4
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED SW US UPPER LOW PHASING
WITH BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL US EARLY
TO MID WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY DIG AND DEEPEN INTO A -(2 TO
3) STD CENTRAL US/MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 500HPA TROUGH BY
MIDWEEK, WHICH GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM (WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES ALONG IT) SLIDING
TOWARDS THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WED AFT INTO THU
NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEEP
LAYERED LIFT OF +(2 TO 3) STD PWATS (AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS) AHEAD OF NEGATIVELY TILTING TROUGH AXIS WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD/ALONG OF PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF 1" OF PRECIP IN 24HR ARE LOW AT THIS
POINT, BUT BASED ON SYNOPTIC SET-UP AND POTENTIAL SLOW
PROGRESS OF FRONT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THESE PROBS TO
TREND UPWARDS. THIS IS REINFORCED BY THE 00Z CSU-MLP RUN
INDICATING A MARGINAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE TSTMS AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. MORE DETAILS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
VFR.
NW-N WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT, BECOMING 10-15 KT. GUSTS
SHOULD AROUND 25 KT SHOULD THEN BEGIN AFTER 12/13Z. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL LIKELY BACK TOWARDS THE WNW IN THE AFTERNOON. A
FEW PEAK GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND 23Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS WEAKENING
BELOW 10 KT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
ONSET AND END TIME OF GUSTS ON SUNDAY MAY BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.
PEAK GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. A FEW WNW GUSTS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE EARLY.
MONDAY: VFR. SW WIND GUSTS 15-25 KT, ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. A SHOWER POSSIBLE WITH MVFR NW OF NYC TERMINALS
AT NIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO 25-
30 KT NEAR THE COAST IN THE EVENING AND NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. S-SW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM. S-SW FLOW 15-20 KT. S-SW WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG LOW
PRESSURE HEADING TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING MARGINAL W/NW SCA GUSTS TO THE NEARSHORE
WATERS DURING THE DAY, WITH MARGINAL OCEAN SEAS FROM A COMBO OF
2-3FT EASTERLY SWELLS AND WESTERLY WIND WAVE.
MARGINAL S SCA WINDS DEVELOPS ON MON WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE
OCEAN (LIKELY ALL NEARSHORE WATERS AS WELL) TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH STRENGTHENING AND PERSISTENT SW WINDS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF LOW-
END GALES TUE AFT THROUGH THU.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ005-006.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DS/NV
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...NV
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