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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE, FL
912 AM EDT WED MAY 31 2023
..SUMMER FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THE SUMMER FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR JUNE, JULY AND AUGUST. AFTER A VERY DRY
PERIOD IN THE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA HAVE RECOVERED, RETURNING TO NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES. OVER THE PAST 90 DAYS, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE RUNNING 2-
6 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH TWO POCKETS ALONG
THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS THAT ARE 8-12 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
EXCEPTION IS IN NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY, WHERE IN THIS SAME 90 DAY
WINDOW, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE 2-6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. BECAUSE OF THE
GENERALLY WET CONDITIONS MOST OF THIS SPRING, STREAMFLOWS ARE
RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH LATE MAY, WITH FLOOD CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY OBSERVED FOR THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR THIS MONTH.
THE LATEST THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
OUTLINES A 30 TO 40% LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE MONTHS OF JUNE, JULY AND AUGUST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL WEEKS AS THE EAST CENTRAL FL WET SEASON IS WELL UNDERWAY.
ALSO OF NOTE, A TRANSITION FROM ENSO NEUTRAL TO EL NINO CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS SAME WINDOW THIS SUMMER.
SMITH
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