849
FNUS72 KMLB 210745
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR SJ 3...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2021
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON OCTOBER 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
ONCE FULLER MIXING OCCURS AROUND MIDDAY, TRANSPORT
TOWARD THE WEST SHOULD BE MORE DEPENDABLE. DUE O SEA BREEZE,
EASTERLY WINDS ARE INDICATED FROM THE SFC THROUGH AROUND 5K FT,
THEN BECOME VARIABLE TO GRADUALLY WESTERLY ABOVE THE 6K TO 7K
FT LEVEL. HYSPLIT WILL BE SENT BY EMAIL BEFORE 6 AM. THANKS.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 6 TO 9 MPH LATE IN
THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3900-5000 FT AGL
LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....7 INCREASING TO 26 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 41 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING
TO 32 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 17.
LVORI...............4 DECREASING TO 2 LATE IN THE MORNING.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........53 54 55 52 50 47 44 40 37
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TEMP............70 76 82 83 85 86 85 84 83
RH..............78 66 55 53 51 49 50 52 53
20 FT WIND DIR..N E E E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 6 7 8 9 10 10 9
20 FT WIND GUST. 11 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 2.6 3.9 4.1 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 8 9 8 8 5 4 3 3
DISPERSION IDX..7 26 43 39 32 20 14 14 17
LVORI...........4 3 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-3000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-900 FT AGL
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 2 TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 2
MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT, THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....12 DECREASING TO 2 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LVORI...............3 INCREASING TO 9.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........33 26 32 36 39 35
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
TEMP............79 72 70 68 67 66
RH..............59 74 81 86 88 94
20 FT WIND......E 7 E 2 SE 1 S 1 SW 1 W 1
20 FT WIND GUST.
MIX HGT (FT)....3000 1200 700 500 300 300
TRANSPORT WIND..E 3 E 5 SE 3 S 2 W 2 W 2
DISPERSION IDX..13 2 2 1 1 1
LVORI...........2 3 5 6 6 8
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST 6 TO 8
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400-5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 1 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 6 TO
8 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE
EAST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 35.
LVORI...............9 DECREASING TO 2.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........35 34 33 43
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 20
LAL.............1 1 1 1
TEMP............65 73 83 87
RH..............96 79 59 50
20 FT WIND......W 1 W 2 NW 6 E 8
MIX HGT (FT)....200 1400 4200 5000
TRANSPORT WIND..W 2 W 5 SW 8 S 6
DISPERSION IDX..1 8 38 37
LVORI...........9 4 1 1
FORECASTER...PENDERGRAST
REQUESTED BY...SAM ASHBAUGH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2119831.0/MLB
.DELDT 10/21/21
.EMAIL SAMUEL_ASHBAUGH@FWS.GOV
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