430
FNUS72 KMLB 280722
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR HAL SCOTT UNIT 2 RX BURN...ST JOHNS RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
322 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON JULY 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...
DISCUSSION
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INCREASES TO 15 MPH,
WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH, ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS, BUT MAINLY AFTER 2 PM TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS
THEN PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DRIFT OFFSHORE IN THE
EVENINGS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW-MOVING
CELLS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO BE THREATS. NO MIN RH CONCERNS,
WITH GENERALLY GOOD DISPERSION. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES UP TO 109 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM
TO 7 PM TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 96.
MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4900 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....8 INCREASING TO 46.
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........50 44 47 44 43 47 49 50
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 20 30 30 40 40
TEMP............86 88 91 93 93 94 94 91
RH..............75 72 64 58 58 54 53 58
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10
20 FT WIND GUST.8 9 10 12 13 14 15 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.1 3.0 3.8 4.8 4.9 4.2 3.3 3.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W SW SW W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10
DISPERSION IDX..19 26 36 44 50 46 42 41
LVORI...........3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST 8 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL EARLY IN
THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 9
TO 12 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.
DISPERSION INDEX....43 DECREASING TO 8.
LVORI...............2 INCREASING TO 5.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........54 48 22 16 27 28
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 10 0 0 0 0
TEMP............91 85 82 80 79 79
RH..............58 72 77 85 88 88
20 FT WIND......W 10 S 9 SW 8 SW 9 SW 9 SW 9
20 FT WIND GUST.14 12 12 12 13 14
MIX HGT (FT)....3000 700 500 500 500 500
TRANSPORT WIND..W 12 SW 10 W 9 W 10 W 10 W 12
DISPERSION IDX..43 9 6 7 7 8
LVORI...........1 3 4 4 5 5
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 16 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4900 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
DECREASING TO 2900 FT AGL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 17 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....7 INCREASING TO 65 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........33 30 38 66
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 30
TEMP............78 83 91 93
RH..............91 82 64 58
20 FT WIND......SW 10G15 SW 13G18 SW 14G21 SW 16G23
MIX HGT (FT)....400 2300 4500 3100
TRANSPORT WIND..W 10 W 16 W 16 SW 16
DISPERSION IDX..7 42 63 39
LVORI...........5 3 1 1
FORECASTER...WISHARD
REQUESTED BY...GRAHAM WILLIAMS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2618440.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/28/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL GWILLIAMS@SJRWMD.COM
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