922
FNUS72 KMLB 281155
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR GS2026S20...SWFWMD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
755 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON AUGUST 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
GOOD MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING (AROUND 11 AM) AND WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON(AROUND 1 PM),
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWERS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
MOVING INTO THE BURN SITE FROM THE WEST COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR,
GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF THE BURN SITE, WHICH MAY MOVE OVER THE
BURN SITE WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MAIN STORM HAZARDS WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 55MPH, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. NO MIN RH CONCERNS TODAY. SMOKE DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE
FAIR TODAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 5
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN DECREASING TO 1900 FT AGL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 39 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING
TO 15 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............10 DECREASING TO 6 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
DECREASING TO 4 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING
TO 1 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 4.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........6 4 6 8 14 28 40 49 59 66
WEATHER COV..... CHC LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC LKY
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 10 10 10 40 60 60 60
TEMP............76 79 84 87 90 91 90 91 87 85
RH..............97 94 80 72 64 62 64 60 68 75
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S SW S W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 5 5 5 6 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 7 9 10 12 12 12 10 9
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.8 1.7 3.3 4.0 4.7 4.8 4.0 3.2 1.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW SW SW SW SW W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6
DISPERSION IDX..2 6 16 29 36 41 42 35 25 15
LVORI...........10 6 4 3 3 1 1 1 3 4
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 3 TO 5
MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....7.
LVORI...............5 INCREASING TO 8 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........68 57 54 59 55 39 36 34 39 43 24 25
WEATHER COV.....LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).60 50 30 30 20 10 10 10 0 0 0 10
TEMP............84 81 78 77 77 76 76 76 76 76 75 75
RH..............74 85 94 94 94 97 94 94 94 94 94 94
20 FT WIND DIR..W W NW SE E E SE SE SE E E SE
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1
20 FT WIND GUST.8 7 6 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.W NW NW E NE NE E E E SE SE SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 5 5 5 3 3 5 5 5 5 5
DISPERSION IDX..11 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
LVORI...........4 5 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 7
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 5700 FT AGL
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 3100 FT
AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....6 INCREASING TO 48 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
DECREASING TO 37 DECREASING TO 26 LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............7 INCREASING TO 10 EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN
DECREASING TO 6 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING
TO 4 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 1
INCREASING TO 3 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........34 31 18 19 18 22 22 26 30 38 43 50
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 30 30 40
TEMP............75 74 76 79 84 86 89 91 91 92 89 87
RH..............94 97 97 94 80 75 68 62 60 56 61 65
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E
20 FT WIND SPD..1 2 2 2 3 5 5 5 5 5 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.3 3 5 5 6 8 9 9 10 10 9 9
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.4 1.2 2.2 3.2 4.1 5.0 5.7 5.1 3.1 3.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7
DISPERSION IDX..2 2 2 10 20 26 34 41 48 37 26 26
LVORI...........7 9 10 6 4 3 3 1 1 1 3 3
FORECASTER...WATSON
REQUESTED BY...GABE PENA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2620787.0/MLB
.DELDT 08/28/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL GABE.PENA@SWFWMD.STATE.FL.US
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