881
FNUS72 KMLB 240608
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR SHELL FIRE...US FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
208 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0800 EDT ON MAY 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
WHILE SOME SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN IN THE VICINITY
OVERNIGHT, WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. BY AFTERNOON, THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN PRESS INLAND, REACHING THE INCIDENT AREA BY 2 OR 3 PM. THIS
MAY BE NOTICED BY A SUBTLE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
A FEW GUSTS FROM 15-20 MPH. IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BE
AWARE FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, AS CHANCES INCREASE
TO AROUND 50-60% OVER THE AREA. PEAK DISPERSION BECOMES GOOD TO
VERY GOOD BY LATE MORNING.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 6 TO 7 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN DECREASING TO 3000 FT AGL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....13 INCREASING TO 31 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 51 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 55 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 42.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........48 44 42 41 45 49 59 62 67 68
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC LKY LKY LKY
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 10 10 20 50 60 60 60
TEMP............75 79 83 85 88 90 89 90 87 87
RH..............97 91 80 70 61 58 57 56 63 63
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10 12 13 14 15 16 18 18 18 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 2.0 2.9 3.7 4.4 5.0 4.7 4.7 3.3 3.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S SE SE SE SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 12 13 12 10 9 9 10 10 10
DISPERSION IDX..13 31 47 52 54 57 52 54 44 39
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....22 DECREASING TO 5 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LVORI...............4 INCREASING TO 5 LATE IN THE EVENING.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........68 67 67 70 64 65 62 58 55 55 47 38
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 20 20 20 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............86 83 81 80 79 78 78 77 77 76 76 75
RH..............65 72 79 82 82 85 85 85 85 87 87 87
20 FT WIND DIR..E E SE SE SE E SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 6 5 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3
20 FT WIND GUST.17 14 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9
DISPERSION IDX..24 20 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
LVORI...........3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
MEMORIAL DAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 5800 FT AGL
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 5700 FT
AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....8 INCREASING TO 37 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 58 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 65 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 75
DECREASING TO 53 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
INCREASING TO 73.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........33 36 28 22 23 23 35 40 40 35 51 55
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 10 0 10 0 0 20 30 30 30 30
TEMP............74 75 76 80 83 85 88 90 91 91 92 90
RH..............90 87 90 85 74 67 59 54 52 52 51 54
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E E
20 FT WIND SPD..3 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8
20 FT WIND GUST.12 12 12 14 15 15 16 17 17 18 18 17
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.9 2.4 3.3 4.0 4.8 5.8 5.6 3.8 3.8 5.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE S SE S SE SE SE S SE SE SE SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 9 9 12 14 13 12 12 12 12 10 12
DISPERSION IDX..4 4 11 37 54 62 65 77 73 53 52 73
FORECASTER...HEIL
REQUESTED BY...BRANDON HIGHTOWER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2614325.1/MLB
.DELDT 05/24/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BRANDON.HIGHTOWER@USDA.GOV
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