849  
FNUS72 KMLB 210745  
FWSMLB  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR SJ 3...USFWS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
345 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON OCTOBER 21.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
ONCE FULLER MIXING OCCURS AROUND MIDDAY, TRANSPORT  
TOWARD THE WEST SHOULD BE MORE DEPENDABLE. DUE O SEA BREEZE,  
EASTERLY WINDS ARE INDICATED FROM THE SFC THROUGH AROUND 5K FT,  
THEN BECOME VARIABLE TO GRADUALLY WESTERLY ABOVE THE 6K TO 7K  
FT LEVEL. HYSPLIT WILL BE SENT BY EMAIL BEFORE 6 AM. THANKS.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86.  
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 6 TO 9 MPH LATE IN  
THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3900-5000 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE MORNING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 9 MPH.  
DISPERSION INDEX....7 INCREASING TO 26 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 41 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING  
TO 32 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 17.  
LVORI...............4 DECREASING TO 2 LATE IN THE MORNING.  
 
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........53 54 55 52 50 47 44 40 37  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............70 76 82 83 85 86 85 84 83  
RH..............78 66 55 53 51 49 50 52 53  
20 FT WIND DIR..N E E E E E E E E  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 6 7 8 9 10 10 9  
20 FT WIND GUST. 11 14 14  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 2.6 3.9 4.1 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 8 9 8 8 5 4 3 3  
DISPERSION IDX..7 26 43 39 32 20 14 14 17  
LVORI...........4 3 1 1 1 2 2 2 2  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.  
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-3000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-900 FT AGL  
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 2 TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 2  
MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT, THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
DISPERSION INDEX....12 DECREASING TO 2 EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
LVORI...............3 INCREASING TO 9.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........33 26 32 36 39 35  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............79 72 70 68 67 66  
RH..............59 74 81 86 88 94  
20 FT WIND......E 7 E 2 SE 1 S 1 SW 1 W 1  
20 FT WIND GUST.  
MIX HGT (FT)....3000 1200 700 500 300 300  
TRANSPORT WIND..E 3 E 5 SE 3 S 2 W 2 W 2  
DISPERSION IDX..13 2 2 1 1 1  
LVORI...........2 3 5 6 6 8  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.  
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN  
THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST 6 TO 8  
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400-5300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 1 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 6 TO  
8 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE  
EAST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 35.  
LVORI...............9 DECREASING TO 2.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........35 34 33 43  
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 20  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............65 73 83 87  
RH..............96 79 59 50  
20 FT WIND......W 1 W 2 NW 6 E 8  
MIX HGT (FT)....200 1400 4200 5000  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 2 W 5 SW 8 S 6  
DISPERSION IDX..1 8 38 37  
LVORI...........9 4 1 1  
 

 
FORECASTER...PENDERGRAST  
REQUESTED BY...SAM ASHBAUGH  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2119831.0/MLB  
.DELDT 10/21/21  
.EMAIL SAMUEL_ASHBAUGH@FWS.GOV  
 
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