918
FNUS72 KMLB 270556
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR SHELL...US FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
156 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0800 EDT ON MAY 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
SOUTHEAST BREEZES ONCE AGAIN INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS UP
TO 20 MPH. AFTER 2 PM AND THROUGH SUNSET, SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD
FORM NEAR THE INCIDENT. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND ERRATIC, GUSTY WINDS EXCEEDING 35 MPH. THERE
IS A LIMITED RISK FOR A STORM TO PRODUCE A WIND GUST OVER 50 MPH
TODAY.
VERY GOOD PEAK DISPERSION IS ANTICIPATED. RH VALUES DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5200 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO
2800 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....21 INCREASING TO 40 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 59 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 70 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 60
DECREASING TO 31 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4 DECREASING TO 2 LATE IN THE MORNING.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........48 43 41 46 57 54 68 72 69 58
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 10 30 30 30 40
TEMP............77 80 84 86 89 91 91 92 89 89
RH..............90 85 72 68 59 54 54 52 57 59
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE S S S S S SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.10 12 13 15 17 17 18 18 18 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 2.4 3.4 4.2 4.8 5.2 5.2 5.1 3.5 2.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 13 13 13 12 12 12 10 7 8
DISPERSION IDX..21 40 54 63 67 73 69 60 34 28
LVORI...........4 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING,
THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....19 DECREASING TO 3 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LVORI...............3 INCREASING TO 7.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........57 74 74 79 80 89 76 64 60 69 51 54
WEATHER COV.....CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 60 60 60 50 40 40 20 10 10 10 10
TEMP............88 84 81 79 78 77 77 76 76 75 75 75
RH..............61 70 77 82 85 88 88 90 90 94 94 90
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 2
20 FT WIND GUST.17 14 10 8 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 1.7 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SE S S S S S SW S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5
DISPERSION IDX..23 15 3 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2
LVORI...........2 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 6
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN
SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING LIGHT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4100 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN DECREASING TO 2000 FT AGL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 7 TO
9 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....6 INCREASING TO 20 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 42 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING
TO 2 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 26.
LVORI...............8 DECREASING TO 6 EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN
DECREASING TO 4 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING
TO 1 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 3.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........53 61 58 58 63 69 72 67 75 83 74 68
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 0 0 0 20 20 20 50 80 80 80 80
TEMP............73 74 75 78 81 84 85 87 88 87 88 85
RH..............97 93 94 88 79 74 72 65 63 63 63 70
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW W
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.7 8 8 8 9 10 12 12 13 14 13 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 0.8 1.3 1.6 2.1 3.3 3.8 3.5 4.1 0.4 0.5 2.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW S SW SW SW SW SW W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 6 8 8 9 9 8 9 8 7 9
DISPERSION IDX..3 3 9 16 24 40 46 40 37 0 4 26
LVORI...........8 6 6 4 3 3 3 1 1 3 3 3
FORECASTER...HEIL
REQUESTED BY...BRANDON HIGHTOWER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2614527.0/MLB
.DELDT 05/27/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BRANDON.HIGHTOWER@USDA.GOV
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