980
FNUS72 KMLB 250528
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR SHELL FIRE...US FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
128 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0800 EDT ON MAY 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
STEADY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON. WIND
GUSTS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE STORM CHANCES ARE
LOWER THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS, WE STILL RUN A 30-40% RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER 1-2 PM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM.
VERY GOOD PEAK DISPERSION IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 21 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4900 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....20 INCREASING TO 41 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 66 IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 59 LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........35 25 26 34 38 45 41 43 53 52
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 0 10 0 10 10 20 30 40 30
TEMP............76 80 83 86 88 91 91 91 92 90
RH..............90 81 72 63 58 51 50 50 49 52
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E
20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 9 10 10 9 8 8 8 9
20 FT WIND GUST.13 15 15 18 18 20 20 21 21 21
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 2.4 3.4 4.2 4.8 4.5 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 14 15 14 13 12 10 10 10 10
DISPERSION IDX..20 41 61 67 70 63 61 60 58 58
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL EARLY IN
THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....54 DECREASING TO 5.
LVORI...............1 INCREASING TO 6.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........47 42 27 31 30 29 30 25 32 33 25 28
WEATHER COV.....CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 20 20 20 20 10 10 0 10 10 10 0
TEMP............89 87 83 81 79 79 78 78 77 76 76 75
RH..............54 57 65 70 75 77 80 81 85 87 87 90
20 FT WIND DIR..E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 5 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 15 15 14 14 14 13 14 13 12 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.1 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 13 13 13 12 10 10 9 10 9 9 9
DISPERSION IDX..54 36 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 4
LVORI...........1 1 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 5 6
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 7 TO 10 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 21 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 6300 FT AGL
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 7700 FT
AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 3700 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 16 EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 46 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 68 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 79
INCREASING TO 92 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
DECREASING TO 80 DECREASING TO 52 LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........27 27 27 22 29 37 35 43 62 58 56 60
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 40 40 40 40
TEMP............74 75 76 80 84 86 89 91 91 92 91 90
RH..............95 93 90 79 69 63 56 51 50 49 50 52
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 8 8 8
20 FT WIND GUST.12 13 14 15 16 18 18 20 20 21 20 20
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 1.1 2.8 3.9 4.4 4.3 5.5 6.3 7.7 6.2 3.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE S S S S S SE S SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 9 12 14 14 14 12 13 12 12 12 12
DISPERSION IDX..4 4 16 46 67 71 65 80 78 92 80 52
FORECASTER...HEIL
REQUESTED BY...BRANDON HIGHTOWER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2614325.2/MLB
.DELDT 05/25/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BRANDON.HIGHTOWER@USDA.GOV
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