517  
FNUS72 KMLB 161007  
FWSMLB  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR JC 24...FFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
607 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON OCTOBER 16.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE AND TRANSPORT  
WINDS WILL PROMOTE GOOD TO VERY GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION FROM LATE  
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR  
LIGHTNING TODAY, MAINLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 4 PM. SHOULD ANY FAST-  
MOVING STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOP TODAY, THEY COULD BE  
ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.  
 
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS (60-70 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1400, THEN 1-8 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.  
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO AROUND 3000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST INCREASING TO 18 TO 22 MPH.  
DISPERSION INDEX....35-40 QUICKLY INCREASING TO AROUND 60 BY NOON.  
LVORI...............DECREASING TO 1 BY LATE MORNING.  
 
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........56 56 56 56 64 64 64 64  
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH  
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2  
TEMP............81 84 86 87 88 87 87 86  
RH..............77 70 65 61 59 63 63 65  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..10 9 10 12 12 12 10 10  
20 FT WIND GUST. 15 15 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW W W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 18 20 21 21 22 21 21  
DISPERSION IDX..34 51 57 60 61 59 59 45  
LVORI...........3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1-8 STRIKES UNTIL 2000, THEN NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING  
LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 17 MPH DECREASING TO 1 TO 9 MPH IN  
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
DISPERSION INDEX....33 DECREASING TO 5.  
LVORI...............4 INCREASING TO 7.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........64 46 46 46 57 57  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........S CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 10 10 10 10 10  
LAL.............2 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............84 79 78 76 75 73  
RH..............70 82 86 90 95 93  
20 FT WIND......W 8 W 6 W 5 W 3 W 3 NW 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.  
MIX HGT (FT)....1700 400 500 400 400 400  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 17 W 10 W 5 W 9 W 7 W 7  
DISPERSION IDX..33 8 4 6 5 4  
LVORI...........3 4 5 5 6 6  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.  
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600-3700 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE MORNING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 2 TO 7 MPH.  
DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 20.  
LVORI...............7 DECREASING TO 3.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........57 53 53 56  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............72 75 82 82  
RH..............94 83 66 63  
20 FT WIND......NW 2 NW 3 NW 3 NW 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....500 1100 3000 3300  
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 7 NW 2 NW 5 NW 6  
DISPERSION IDX..4 3 17 20  
LVORI...........6 5 3 2  
 

 
FORECASTER...COMBS  
REQUESTED BY...DANIEL WOOD  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1917287.0/MLB  
.DELDT 10/16/19  
.EMAIL DANIEL.WOOD@FDACS.GOV  
 
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