679
FNUS72 KMLB 171001
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR LOX RIVER...SFWMD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
601 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2020
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
GOOD MORNING. AN INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE
AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY GOOD DISPERSION TODAY. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH, POSSIBLY SOUTH
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AFTER 5 PM BEHIND A SEA BREEZE.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1400, THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL
1700, THEN 9-15 STRIKES.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 15 MPH EARLY IN
THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800-4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 16 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....6 INCREASING TO 24 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 42 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 52 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 38.
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 4 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
DECREASING TO 1 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 3 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........39 39 48 48 48 58 58 58 60
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 30
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3
TEMP............81 85 88 89 90 91 90 90 89
RH..............85 75 68 66 62 60 62 64 66
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..7 10 13 14 14 14 15 16 16
20 FT WIND GUST.8 14 17 18 18 18 21 22 22
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.6 2.7 3.7 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.4 4.1 3.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 14 16 16 15 14 13 13 12
DISPERSION IDX..24 42 55 55 53 49 42 38 34
LVORI...........4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 3
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 2000, THEN NO TSTMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-3000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-900 FT AGL
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....29 DECREASING TO 6 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LVORI...............4 INCREASING TO 6 LATE IN THE EVENING.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........60 62 62 57 40 40
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 20 20 10 10 10
LAL.............3 1 1 1 1 1
TEMP............87 83 81 79 78 77
RH..............70 80 85 91 91 94
20 FT WIND......S 14 S 8 S 5 S 5 SW 6 SW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.18
MIX HGT (FT)....3000 1500 900 500 300 200
TRANSPORT WIND..S 12 SW 10 S 10 S 9 SW 8 SW 9
DISPERSION IDX..31 7 7 6 5 6
LVORI...........3 4 4 6 6 6
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0800, THEN 9-15 STRIKES.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100-4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....8 INCREASING TO 18 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 33 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 45 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 50
DECREASING TO 40 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 4 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
DECREASING TO 1 IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO
3 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........49 32 32 50
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 50 50 50
LAL.............1 3 3 3
TEMP............78 80 88 89
RH..............94 88 68 66
20 FT WIND......SW 6 S 6 S 9 S 9
MIX HGT (FT)....300 1500 3700 4200
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 9 SW 9 SW 10 SW 10
DISPERSION IDX..6 18 42 48
LVORI...........6 4 1 1
FORECASTER...KELLY
REQUESTED BY...GENE COLWELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2012698.0/MLB
.DELDT 09/17/20
.EMAIL GCOLWELL@SFWMD.GOV
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