128
FNUS72 KMLB 200840
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR WBTWMA - 7B...FWC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
440 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON JULY 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
GOOD MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25
MPH AT TIMES. AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IN THE NORTHERN GULF
MOVES NORTHWEST, AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA, BANDS OF GUSTY SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR THE BURN
SITE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY THE WEST AND EAST
COAST SEA BREEZES, WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION FORECAST TO OCCUR
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA, GENERALLY WEST OF THE BURN SITE. HAVING
SAID THAT, ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED (50 TO 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS) THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD CAUSE MINOR, LOCALIZED
FLOODING. ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH INTO THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO MIN RH CONCERNS TODAY WITH SMOKE
DISPERSIONS VALUES GENERALLY GOOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
FAIR TO POOR IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TONIGHT, WITH WINDS AROUND 7 TO 10
MPH, WHICH WILL HELP DIMINISH ANY FOG POTENTIAL. BECAUSE OF THIS,
FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILER ACROSS THE AREA, LOWERING OVERALL
RAIN CHANCES. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR, NO MIN RH CONCERNS ARE
FORECAST. THERE IS A LOW (20 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE
GENERALLY GOOD ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE BECOMING POOR
TO FAIR BY THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON, THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN DECREASING TO 2700 FT AGL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 17 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....36 INCREASING TO 63 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
DECREASING TO 39.
LVORI...............4 DECREASING TO 1 LATE IN THE MORNING.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........24 22 29 34 39 55 52 62 56
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC LKY CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC LKY CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 10 10 40 40 60 40
TEMP............82 86 89 91 93 93 92 93 90
RH..............85 75 68 64 58 58 60 58 64
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S SE
20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
20 FT WIND GUST.17 18 18 20 20 20 20 20 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.8 2.9 3.9 4.5 4.5 4.8 4.6 3.6 2.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 16 16 17 16 15 14 13 13
DISPERSION IDX..36 53 61 65 64 60 55 47 39
LVORI...........4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....19 DECREASING TO 7 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LVORI...............4 INCREASING TO 5 OVERNIGHT.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........66 61 50 46 32 35
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........CHANCE S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 20 10 0 0 0
TEMP............89 83 81 79 79 78
RH..............66 77 82 88 85 85
20 FT WIND......SE 10 S 8 SE 7 S 8 S 8 S 9
20 FT WIND GUST.16 12 12 13 14 15
MIX HGT (FT)....1500 800 500 400 500 400
TRANSPORT WIND..S 10 S 9 S 9 S 9 S 9 S 9
DISPERSION IDX..22 8 7 8 6 7
LVORI...........3 4 4 5 4 5
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 96.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 13 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....8 INCREASING TO 60 DECREASING TO 51
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............5 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........39 30 20 15
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............77 82 91 95
RH..............90 82 62 49
20 FT WIND......S 10G17 S 12G18 S 13G20 S 12G20
MIX HGT (FT)....400 2300 4600 6400
TRANSPORT WIND..S 13 S 14 S 14 S 13
DISPERSION IDX..8 37 55 59
LVORI...........5 4 1 1
FORECASTER...WATSON
REQUESTED BY...MELANIE MANCUSO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2617762.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/20/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MELANIE.MANCUSO@MYFWC.COM
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