123
FNUS72 KMLB 130923
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR CCSFS RX FIRE 13 AUG...US AIR FORCE FOR USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
523 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2022
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON AUGUST 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED IN THE BURN AREA OVERNIGHT. A
HUMID DAY WITH DEVELOPING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DISPERSION
LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO DIFFERING WINDS WITH ELEVATION. A
PRONOUNCED SEABREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MODEST OFFSHORE
FLOW AT LEAST THIS MORNING. FLOW TO LIKELY BE DISRUPTED BY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING,
THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1100, THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL
1400, THEN 9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........73 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 7 MPH LATE
IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1700-2900 FT AGL
IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE WEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....29 MAX.
LVORI...............5 DECREASING TO 4 IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........50 50 50 50 51 53 54 55 55 56
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 50 50 50 70
LAL.............1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4
TEMP............78 81 83 85 87 88 87 87 85 85
RH..............85 81 78 76 73 73 73 74 76 76
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW S SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 10
20 FT WIND GUST. 14 14 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 1.1 1.8 2.6 2.9 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.2 1.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W S S S W W SW S SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
DISPERSION IDX..4 7 15 21 28 24 22 26 22 21
LVORI...........5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING, THEN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
LAL.................16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 2300, THEN 1-8 STRIKES
UNTIL 0200, THEN NO TSTMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING,
THEN BECOMING LIGHT EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 3 TO 8
MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....11 DECREASING TO 4 EARLY IN THE MORNING.
LVORI...............5 INCREASING TO 7 AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........61 72 72 68 60 50
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE
TSTM COV........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).70 60 60 30 10 10
LAL.............4 4 4 2 1 1
TEMP............83 78 77 76 75 75
RH..............78 86 86 86 89 90
20 FT WIND......SE 9 S 6 S 6 SW 6 SW 7 W 3
20 FT WIND GUST.
MIX HGT (FT)....1200 1000 900 900 700 600
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 6 S 9 W 8 W 7 W 6 W 5
DISPERSION IDX..20 8 6 6 6 4
LVORI...........4 5 5 5 6 7
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0800, THEN 16-25 STRIKES.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........68 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN
THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 6
TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 2 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....6 INCREASING TO 15 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............7 DECREASING TO 3.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........43 25 29 44
WEATHER COV..... LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 70 70 70
LAL.............1 4 4 4
TEMP............73 79 85 86
RH..............92 88 72 70
20 FT WIND......W 3 W 5G7 SW 6G8 E 7G9
MIX HGT (FT)....600 1300 2100 1800
TRANSPORT WIND..W 3 W 2 W 3 W 9
DISPERSION IDX..3 5 8 15
LVORI...........7 5 3 3
FORECASTER...PENDERGRAST
REQUESTED BY...PATRICK STAHL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2216617.0/MLB
.DELDT 08/13/22
.EMAIL PATRICK.STAHL.1@SPACEFORCE.MIL
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