987
FNUS72 KMLB 170709
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR THREE LAKES- LAKE MARIAN WEST...FWC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
309 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON JULY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 10 MPH NEAR
THE BURN SITE TODAY WILL LEAD TO POOR AFTERNOON SMOKE DISPERSION
VALUES. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RH VALUES WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, WITH A 70% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORECAST TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY START NEAR THE BURN SITE AS
EARLY AS 12 PM, WITH PEAK COVERAGE ANTICIPATED AFTER 2 PM. STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD CAUSE MINOR,
LOCALIZED FLOODING. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH INTO THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SATURDAY, PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN, WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. AFTERNOON SMOKE
DISPERSIONS WILL IMPROVE, BECOMING VERY GOOD NEAR THE BURN SITE.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 6 TO
7 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 27.
LVORI...............8 DECREASING TO 2.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........30 30 30 33 36 48 55 55 57 57
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 30 50 60 60 60 70 60
TEMP............76 80 84 86 88 89 90 90 90 87
RH..............97 85 74 72 66 64 62 62 60 65
20 FT WIND DIR..SW W W W W W SW W W N
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 6 8 9 9 10 10 12 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 1.2 1.8 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W SW NW W NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 6 6 5 7 7 7 6 6
DISPERSION IDX..4 8 13 19 17 27 26 26 22 20
LVORI...........8 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 6
TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN DECREASING
TO 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING BECOMING
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....17 DECREASING TO 2.
LVORI...............3 INCREASING TO 9.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........62 65 61 42 27 16
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 30 20 10 0 0
TEMP............85 80 77 75 74 73
RH..............70 85 90 97 97 100
20 FT WIND......N 3 SW 2 SW 1 SW 1 S 1 S 3
20 FT WIND GUST.9 6 3 3 3 6
MIX HGT (FT)....2000 900 500 800 700 500
TRANSPORT WIND..N 7 SW 6 S 5 SW 6 SW 5 S 5
DISPERSION IDX..17 3 2 3 2 2
LVORI...........3 5 6 8 9 9
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....3 INCREASING TO 66, THEN DECREASING TO 45.
LVORI...............9 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........10 8 15 27 50 58
WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC CHANCE CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 20 30 40
TEMP............73 75 84 88 91 91
RH..............100 100 74 66 58 58
20 FT WIND......S 5 S 6 S 8 S 10 S 10 S 9
20 FT WIND GUST.8 12 15 17 20 18
MIX HGT (FT)....400 700 2800 4200 4200 3600
TRANSPORT WIND..S 8 S 9 S 10 S 13 S 14 S 13
DISPERSION IDX..3 8 36 63 66 45
LVORI...........9 8 3 1 1 1
FORECASTER...TOLLEFSEN
REQUESTED BY...STEVE GLASS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2617498.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/17/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL STEVE.GLASS@MYFWC.COM
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