366
FNUS72 KMLB 031217
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR TAKE 2...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
817 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON AUGUST 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION OF RAINFALL CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TOWARDS THE BURN SITE. HI-RES MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING WEAKENING, BUT CURRENT TRENDS POINT TOWARDS AT LEAST
LIGHT RAINFALL ARRIVING AFTER AROUND 10 AM, AND CAN'T RULE OUT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER NOON AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH THIS
MORNING SHIFT WEST TO WEST-SOUTWEST AFTER 10 AM, THEN WESTERLY
AFTER 2 PM, AND BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST AND VARIABLE AT TIMES
AFTER 6 PM. RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES DECREASE AFTER 8 PM,
BUT LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT. MIN RH AROUND
70%. PEAK DISPERSION VALUES FORECAST TO BE VERY GOOD.
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH TO 8 MPH
LATE IN THE LATE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600-3400 FT AGL
IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH IN THE LATE
MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....INCREASING TO 55 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 3.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........42 42 35 47 54 65 71 60 62 55
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 20 30 50 50 50 50
TEMP............76 80 83 85 87 86 85 87 85 84
RH..............97 88 82 77 72 72 75 70 75 74
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S SW SW SW W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10 12 14 15 16 17 17 17 16 16
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 1.2 1.8 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW SW SW SW SW W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 13 13 14 15 15 14 15 14 12
DISPERSION IDX..8 20 29 46 55 59 50 56 49 34
LVORI...........6 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST-SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE EVENING.
DISPERSION INDEX....28 DECREASING TO 4.
LVORI...............4 INCREASING TO 8.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........60 57 40 45 33 22
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........CHANCE S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 20 10 10 0 0
TEMP............83 78 76 76 75 75
RH..............77 91 97 94 97 94
20 FT WIND......W 6 SW 3 S 3 S 3 S 3 S 3
20 FT WIND GUST.13 8 6 6 7 6
MIX HGT (FT)....1800 500 400 500 400 400
TRANSPORT WIND..W 10 SW 7 SW 8 S 7 S 8 S 7
DISPERSION IDX..28 4 3 3 4 3
LVORI...........3 6 7 6 7 8
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE
IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....INCREASING TO 37 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............9 DECREASING TO 3.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........25 45 52 53
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 30
TEMP............74 79 87 88
RH..............100 91 70 66
20 FT WIND......S 3G6 S 3G6 SW 5G10 SW 5G12
MIX HGT (FT)....400 1300 2800 2100
TRANSPORT WIND..S 7 SW 8 SW 9 W 8
DISPERSION IDX..3 13 33 22
LVORI...........9 5 3 3
FORECASTER...HALEY
REQUESTED BY...ADAM PETERSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2618888.0/MLB
.DELDT 08/03/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL APETERSON@TNC.ORG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page