119
FNUS72 KMLB 040904
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR WS46...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
404 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 EST ON FEBRUARY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
TODAY
SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF NEAR CRITICAL WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH AFTER 11
AM, BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 6 PM. AFTERNOON MIN RHS DROP TO 35-40%.
THERE IS A VERY LOW (LESS THAN 20%) CHANCE FOR HUMIDITY TO DROP
BELOW 30%. DISPERSION VALUES BECOME VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS (CHANCES 50-70%) PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. LIGHTNING STORMS ARE NOT
FORECAST. THE FRONT ARRIVES AROUND MID-MORNING, SHIFTING WINDS
NORTHWESTERLY AT 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. WINDS FURTHER
INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, THEN SETTLE IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4100-5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 10
TO 15 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING, SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE EVENING.
DISPERSION INDEX....INCREASING TO 77.
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 6 10
WEATHER COV.....PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE....FST FST
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............38 38 40 48 56 62 66 69 71 71 72 70
RH..............82 82 82 68 55 48 47 44 41 39 38 41
20 FT WIND DIR..SW S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 1 2 3 6 7 8 8 8 8 8
20 FT WIND GUST.2 2 2 3 6 12 13 15 16 16 15 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.0 3.0 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.W SW S S S S S S S S SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.3 2 2 3 8 12 13 14 14 14 14 13
DISPERSION IDX..2 1 1 2 11 42 62 68 71 72 81 61
LVORI...........5 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, THEN RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....DECREASING TO 6.
LVORI...............3 INCREASING TO 9.
TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........17 19 34 51 72 89
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 40 60 70
TEMP............67 59 55 53 51 52
RH..............47 62 72 80 89 93
20 FT WIND......SW 7 W 6 SW 5 SW 5 SW 6 SW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 9 10 12
MIX HGT (FT)....600 400 400 500 500 500
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 9 W 9 SW 10 SW 9 SW 9 W 9
DISPERSION IDX..8 4 5 6 6 6
LVORI...........2 3 3 4 5 6
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400-3700 FT AGL
IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....11 INCREASING TO 54.
LVORI...............8 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........91 86 68 29
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 10
TEMP............51 55 57 57
RH..............100 93 83 62
20 FT WIND......SW 6G13 W 8G17 W 13G21 NW 14G23
MIX HGT (FT)....500 1000 2400 3700
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 9 W 12 NW 18 NW 22
DISPERSION IDX..6 15 38 58
LVORI...........7 5 4 1
FORECASTER...HALEY
REQUESTED BY...BENJAMIN BANDOR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2601601.0/MLB
.DELDT 02/04/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BEN.BANDOR@FLORIDADEP.GOV
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