445  
FNUS72 KMLB 190929  
FWSMLB  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR GRASSY POND COMP 261...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
529 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON JULY 19.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY  
NEAR 5 MPH THROUGH MID DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED  
TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE BURN AREA AFTER 2 PM, THEN  
INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM 3 TO 8 PM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY  
COLLISION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS,  
ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. LIGHT SURFACE AND TRANSPORT  
WINDS WILL PRODUCE POOR TO FAIR DISPERSION TODAY.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1400, THEN 9-15 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.  
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN  
THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING LIGHT IN THE  
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4200-5100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 1 TO 6 MPH.  
DISPERSION INDEX....3 INCREASING TO 24 LATE IN THE MORNING, DECREASING  
TO 17 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............7 DECREASING TO 2.  
 
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........35 35 35 39 39 39 60 60 60 60  
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3  
TEMP............78 82 85 89 90 92 93 92 91 90  
RH..............94 82 75 66 62 58 54 56 58 60  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..1 2 3 5 5 3 3 3 3 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 1.4 2.5 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE S S S S S S SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.1 2 5 6 6 5 5 3 3 3  
DISPERSION IDX..0 5 14 25 28 25 24 21 19 17  
LVORI...........7 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 2000, THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL  
2300, THEN NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-2900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL EARLY  
IN THE EVENING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 1 TO 3 MPH.  
DISPERSION INDEX....9 DECREASING TO 1 EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
LVORI...............4 INCREASING TO 7 IN THE LATE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........60 57 57 57 34 34  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........CHANCE S CHC S CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 20 20 20 20 20  
LAL.............3 2 2 1 1 1  
TEMP............87 83 80 78 76 75  
RH..............65 77 82 85 90 94  
20 FT WIND......S 3 SE 2 SE 2 SE 2 S 2 S 1  
20 FT WIND GUST.  
MIX HGT (FT)....2900 300 300 300 300 300  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 3 SE 2 SE 2 SE 2 S 2 S 1  
DISPERSION IDX..12 1 1 1 1 1  
LVORI...........3 4 6 6 7 7  
 

 
FORECASTER...SMITH  
REQUESTED BY...TIMOTHY WOODY  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1912415.0/MLB  
.DELDT 07/19/19  
.EMAIL TIMOTHY.WOODY2@USDA.GOV  
 
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