380
FNUS72 KMLB 301207
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR BSP-06B...BLUE SPRING STATE PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
807 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
GOOD MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 5-6 MPH BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. AFTER LITTLE TO NO RAIN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, RAIN
AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES RETURN TODAY AT THE BURN SITE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST NEAR THE SITE THIS AFTERNOON
(30-40 PERCENT CHANCE) MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH.
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS AFTER 2 PM. MAIN STORM HAZARDS WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS OF 40-45 MPH, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
THERE ARE NO MIN RH CONCERNS TODAY, WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO
50-55 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE FAIR TODAY.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30-40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN DECREASING TO 2300 FT AGL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 2 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AROUND 8 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....INCREASING TO AROUND 32.
LVORI...............8 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........60 66 59 64 61 64 71 74 82 74
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 30 30 30 30
TEMP............71 74 80 84 86 88 88 88 89 85
RH..............97 93 77 67 61 55 55 55 56 63
20 FT WIND DIR..N SE SE SE SE SE SE E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..0 1 2 3 5 6 6 6 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.3 3 6 8 10 12 12 12 13 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.7 1.6 2.8 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.7 3.9 2.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE E SE SE SE SE SE E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.2 3 3 6 6 6 6 6 7 8
DISPERSION IDX..1 3 7 21 26 32 30 31 30 26
LVORI...........8 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS (40-65 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
IN THE EVENING, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INTO MID EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....22 DECREASING TO 2 OR 3.
LVORI...............3 INCREASING TO 8.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........69 71 65 66 49 56 52 43 41 36 22 24
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 20 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 10
TEMP............84 83 78 77 76 75 74 74 74 73 73 73
RH..............65 70 85 88 90 94 93 93 93 97 97 93
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 5 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 2
20 FT WIND GUST.14 13 13 12 9 9 7 7 6 6 6 6
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E SE SE SE SE E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5
DISPERSION IDX..22 8 6 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2
LVORI...........3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 8 8 7 8
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 6 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....INCREASING TO AROUND 46.
LVORI...............8 DECREASING TO 5 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........22 22 26 23 26 31 44 53 61 61 65 53
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC LKY CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 0 0 0 10 10 10 20 40 60 50
TEMP............72 72 73 77 82 85 87 88 88 89 87 85
RH..............97 97 97 90 77 70 63 61 61 59 63 67
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 3 3 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 8 8 12 14 15 16 18 18 20 20
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.3 1.5 2.6 3.9 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.3 2.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 5 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10
DISPERSION IDX..2 2 2 13 27 42 45 46 37 38 34 28
LVORI...........8 8 8 5 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 3
FORECASTER...SEDLOCK
REQUESTED BY...DUSTIN ALLEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2622823.0/MLB
.DELDT 09/30/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL DUSTIN.L.ALLEN@FLORIDADEP.GOV
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