543
FNUS72 KMLB 220719
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR CCSFS AREA 59...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
319 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON AUGUST 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
AFTER 1 PM AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH. NO MINIMUM RH
CONCERNS ARE FORECAST, WITH SMOKE DISPERSION VALUES ANTICIPATED TO
BE POOR TO FAIR NEAR THE BURN SITE. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE FOR
OFFSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO APPROACH THE SITE AFTER 3 PM,
WITH STORM HAZARDS INCLUDING LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS TO 55
MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ANY
NEARBY ACTIVITY MAY LEAD TO SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS NEAR THE BURN SITE.
ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR WEATHER AND
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST 7 TO 10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 7 TO
13 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 14.
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 2.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........44 45 30 30 30 32 38 39 39 40
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 0 0 0 10 20 20 30 40
TEMP............79 83 87 89 92 94 95 94 94 92
RH..............94 80 70 66 60 54 53 56 56 62
20 FT WIND DIR..SW W W SW SW S SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 10
20 FT WIND GUST.8 8 8 8 8 9 10 12 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W SW SW SW S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 6 5 6 6 7 9 12 13
DISPERSION IDX..5 8 9 11 12 12 11 13 14 11
LVORI...........6 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER 3 AM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 7
TO 9 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
DISPERSION INDEX....14 DECREASING TO 4.
LVORI...............3 INCREASING TO 6.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........48 51 45 39 36 28
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 30 10 0 0 0
TEMP............90 84 81 81 79 78
RH..............66 77 85 85 91 91
20 FT WIND......S 10 S 8 S 7 S 6 SW 5 SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.15 14 12 10 9 8
MIX HGT (FT)....900 900 600 800 500 600
TRANSPORT WIND..S 14 S 13 S 14 S 12 SW 10 SW 8
DISPERSION IDX..14 11 9 5 5 4
LVORI...........3 4 4 5 5 6
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
MORNING BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST
5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 7 TO 8 MPH.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
7 TO 9 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....3 INCREASING TO 19.
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 2.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........19 9 12 17 30 33
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 20 20
TEMP............77 79 87 91 93 93
RH..............94 91 70 60 54 56
20 FT WIND......SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 S 5 SE 7 SE 8
20 FT WIND GUST.8 8 8 8 9 10
MIX HGT (FT)....500 700 1800 2300 1900 1600
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 S 7 SE 8
DISPERSION IDX..3 4 13 16 17 19
LVORI...........6 6 3 2 2 2
FORECASTER...TOLLEFSEN
REQUESTED BY...ALAN TAYLOR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2620208.0/MLB
.DELDT 08/22/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL ALAN_TAYLOR@FWS.GOV
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