921
FNUS72 KMLB 220239
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR WEST MARSH FIRE...USWFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1039 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 2300 EDT ON MAY 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
GOOD EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN. SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT
AROUND 5 MPH AT THE BURN SITE WILL BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST EACH
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH POSSIBLE AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMS AND PUSHES INLAND.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW OVERALL FRIDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON (RAIN CHANCES 20-30
PERCENT). THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORM
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND, WITH RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN 40-50 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NO MIN RH CONCERNS. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S EACH DAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
NEAR 100 DEGREES. AFTERNOON SMOKE DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE GOOD
TO VERY GOOD THROUGH SUNDAY.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....5.
LVORI...............5 INCREASING TO 6 AFTER 3 AM.
TIME (EDT) 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........49 52 42 26 32 37 36
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............78 77 77 76 75 75 74
RH..............79 82 82 85 87 87 90
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 1 1 1 1
20 FT WIND GUST.12 12 10 10 9 8 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE S S S SE SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 10 9 8 8 8
DISPERSION IDX..5 5 4 4 4 4 4
LVORI...........4 4 4 5 6 6 6
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 6400 FT AGL IN
THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 3800 FT AGL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 58.
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........41 48 41 37 41 39 40 49 59 61 58 57
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 30 30 30 30
TEMP............73 74 75 80 84 86 89 91 91 91 92 90
RH..............90 87 90 79 70 61 54 49 49 50 49 54
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 1 2 3 3 5 5 5 6 6 7
20 FT WIND GUST.8 8 8 9 9 9 12 13 14 15 16 16
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.8 2.2 3.2 4.4 5.6 6.0 6.4 5.7 4.5 3.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE S S S S SE SE SE SE E
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 8 12 13
DISPERSION IDX..3 3 7 27 39 44 55 53 55 55 62 59
LVORI...........6 6 5 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
FRIDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL EARLY IN
THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....55 DECREASING TO 5.
LVORI...............1 INCREASING TO 6.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........54 55 39 32 30 38 39 46 62 55 36 26
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............89 87 83 81 79 78 78 77 77 76 76 75
RH..............56 59 70 74 79 82 82 85 82 85 85 87
20 FT WIND DIR..SE E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 5 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1
20 FT WIND GUST.16 16 15 15 15 14 13 12 10 9 8 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.4 2.3 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 14 12 12 12 10 10 9 9 8 7 7
DISPERSION IDX..55 42 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3
LVORI...........1 1 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 6600 FT AGL
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 4300 FT
AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....7 INCREASING TO 64 THEN DECREASING TO 55 LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 42.
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........28 36 32 44 38 31 36 41 46 45 44 43
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 40 40 40 40
TEMP............74 75 76 81 84 87 88 90 91 91 90 90
RH..............90 90 87 74 70 61 57 52 50 50 54 56
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E E
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 5 5 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.8 8 7 9 10 10 12 12 13 14 14 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.9 1.4 2.2 3.3 4.3 5.5 6.4 6.6 5.8 4.3 2.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 12
DISPERSION IDX..3 3 11 23 38 49 60 64 67 66 55 42
LVORI...........6 6 5 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
FORECASTER...WATSON
REQUESTED BY...MICHAEL ST.MARTIN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2614272.0/MLB
.DELDT 05/21/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MSTMARTI@BLM.GOV
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