123  
FNUS72 KMLB 130923  
FWSMLB  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR CCSFS RX FIRE 13 AUG...US AIR FORCE FOR USFWS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
523 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2022  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON AUGUST 13.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED IN THE BURN AREA OVERNIGHT. A  
HUMID DAY WITH DEVELOPING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DISPERSION  
LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO DIFFERING WINDS WITH ELEVATION. A  
PRONOUNCED SEABREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MODEST OFFSHORE  
FLOW AT LEAST THIS MORNING. FLOW TO LIKELY BE DISRUPTED BY  
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING,  
THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1100, THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL  
1400, THEN 9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 1700.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.  
MIN HUMIDITY........73 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 7 MPH LATE  
IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST  
8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1700-2900 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN  
SHIFTING TO THE WEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON  
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
DISPERSION INDEX....29 MAX.  
LVORI...............5 DECREASING TO 4 IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........50 50 50 50 51 53 54 55 55 56  
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 50 50 50 70  
LAL.............1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4  
TEMP............78 81 83 85 87 88 87 87 85 85  
RH..............85 81 78 76 73 73 73 74 76 76  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW S SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 10  
20 FT WIND GUST. 14 14 14 14  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 1.1 1.8 2.6 2.9 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.2 1.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W S S S W W SW S SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
DISPERSION IDX..4 7 15 21 28 24 22 26 22 21  
LVORI...........5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING, THEN  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
LAL.................16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 2300, THEN 1-8 STRIKES  
UNTIL 0200, THEN NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING,  
THEN BECOMING LIGHT EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY  
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS  
UNTIL EARLY MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 3 TO 8  
MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
DISPERSION INDEX....11 DECREASING TO 4 EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
LVORI...............5 INCREASING TO 7 AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........61 72 72 68 60 50  
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY S CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).70 60 60 30 10 10  
LAL.............4 4 4 2 1 1  
TEMP............83 78 77 76 75 75  
RH..............78 86 86 86 89 90  
20 FT WIND......SE 9 S 6 S 6 SW 6 SW 7 W 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.  
MIX HGT (FT)....1200 1000 900 900 700 600  
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 6 S 9 W 8 W 7 W 6 W 5  
DISPERSION IDX..20 8 6 6 6 4  
LVORI...........4 5 5 5 6 7  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0800, THEN 16-25 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.  
MIN HUMIDITY........68 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN  
THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 6  
TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 2 TO 9 MPH.  
DISPERSION INDEX....6 INCREASING TO 15 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............7 DECREASING TO 3.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........43 25 29 44  
WEATHER COV..... LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 70 70 70  
LAL.............1 4 4 4  
TEMP............73 79 85 86  
RH..............92 88 72 70  
20 FT WIND......W 3 W 5G7 SW 6G8 E 7G9  
MIX HGT (FT)....600 1300 2100 1800  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 3 W 2 W 3 W 9  
DISPERSION IDX..3 5 8 15  
LVORI...........7 5 3 3  
 

 
FORECASTER...PENDERGRAST  
REQUESTED BY...PATRICK STAHL  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2216617.0/MLB  
.DELDT 08/13/22  
.EMAIL PATRICK.STAHL.1@SPACEFORCE.MIL  
 
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