908
FNUS72 KMLB 142304
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR LAUNCH WILDFIRE...US WILDLAND FIRE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
604 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1800 EST ON FEBRUARY 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING VEER THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BECOMING SOUTHERLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WHILE THERE ARE NO CRITICAL RH CONCERNS, SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AFTER 11 AM LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY, INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
30-35 MPH. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY PUSH OVER 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 35
MPH WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 2 PM, BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AND SHIFTING TO THE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 7 PM. AFTERNOON DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE
VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
A SHOWER MAY GRAZE THE COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING,
BUT WETTING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER SUNDAY. RAIN AND
LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE AFTER AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS THEN
APPROACH THE BURN SITE AFTER 7 PM WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT (~80-90%). A STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE SUNDAY
NIGHT, DEPARTING SOUTH OF THE BURN SITE SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER BEHIND THE FRONT AT AROUND 10 MPH, BECOMING
NORTHERLY BY THE EVENING. AFTERNOON DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE
GENERALLY GOOD.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AFTER 3 AM.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND
9 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AROUND 14 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....18 DECREASING TO 11.
LVORI...............5 INCREASING TO 6 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........32 47 48 51 59 73 70 70 67 60 57 60
WEATHER COV..... SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 10 20 10 10
TEMP............66 64 63 63 63 63 63 63 62 63 62 63
RH..............88 90 97 93 93 93 93 93 97 97 100 97
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.12 12 12 13 13 14 15 16 15 15 15 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 1.3 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E SE SE SE SE SE S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 10 12 14 15 13 16 15 16 15 15 14
DISPERSION IDX..18 7 8 10 12 11 14 13 14 13 13 12
LVORI...........4 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........73 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 16 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 TO 23 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....15 INCREASING TO 47.
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 4 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........63 63 66 62 54 46 46 43 32 41 33 39
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 20 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 20 30
TEMP............63 63 64 66 68 70 70 71 71 71 72 70
RH..............97 97 97 97 90 81 81 76 76 76 73 78
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 9 12 14 15 17 18 17 17 20 17
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 16 20 22 23 24 25 26 26 28
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 14 15 16 16 17 18 21 21 20 21 23
DISPERSION IDX..12 18 23 30 34 37 41 46 45 43 46 51
LVORI...........6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3
SUNDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 23 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....51 DECREASING TO 25.
LVORI...............4 INCREASING TO 5 AFTER 3 AM.
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........37 55 62 73 83 83 83 83 76 68 60 59
WEATHER COV.....CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 90 90 90 90 90 90 70 70 70 70 70
TEMP............69 68 68 67 66 65 65 64 63 62 61 60
RH..............81 84 81 81 84 87 90 93 97 100 100 100
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..16 16 16 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 10
20 FT WIND GUST.24 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 21 20 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.3 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.23 22 22 22 21 21 21 21 20 18 17 16
DISPERSION IDX..51 29 29 29 27 27 28 28 27 25 22 20
LVORI...........3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
12 TO 13 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 13 TO
21 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....19 INCREASING TO 39.
LVORI...............5 DECREASING TO 4 IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........58 56 54 53 51 49 46 43 40 37 34 37
WEATHER COV.....LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).70 30 30 30 30 30 30 40 40 40 40 40
TEMP............60 60 62 64 66 68 68 68 68 66 65 63
RH..............100 100 100 97 93 87 84 81 81 84 87 93
20 FT WIND DIR..SW W W W W W NW NW N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 13 13 13
20 FT WIND GUST.17 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 18 18 17
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W NW NW N N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 16 18 21 21
DISPERSION IDX..19 31 32 33 32 32 30 29 33 37 40 38
LVORI...........5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4
FORECASTER...HALEY
REQUESTED BY...SAM ASHBAUGH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2602596.5/MLB
.DELDT 02/14/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL SAMUEL_ASHBAUGH@FWS.GOV
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