858
FNUS72 KMLB 221145
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR BSP-06B...BLUE SPRING STATE PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
745 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON MAY 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING DURING THE DAY, RETURNING TO LIGHT WINDS
LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED (30%) AFTERNOON
LIGHTNING STORMS FORECAST NEAR THE BURN VENUE PUSHING WESTWARD BY
EVENING, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING DIURNAL COVERAGE INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STORM THREATS INCLUDE LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS LOCALLY, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY STAYING ABOVE
CRITICAL IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH GENERALLY GOOD DISPERSION FORECAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT FORECAST.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 5900 FT AGL
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 3900 FT
AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 12
TO 13 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....INCREASING TO AROUND 52.
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........26 20 32 39 57 55 54 60 54 49
WEATHER COV..... CHC SCH CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC SCH CHC SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 30 20 30 20
TEMP............76 80 83 85 87 89 89 89 90 88
RH..............90 77 67 61 55 52 52 54 52 57
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 8 8 8 8 9 12 13 14
20 FT WIND GUST.12 13 13 14 15 16 18 20 21 21
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 2.3 3.3 3.9 5.0 5.6 5.9 5.0 3.9 3.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SE S SE SE E E SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 10 10 9 8 7 8 9 12 13
DISPERSION IDX..6 33 42 44 46 45 52 52 42 42
LVORI...........6 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....43 DECREASING TO AROUND 3 OVERNIGHT.
LVORI...............1 INCREASING TO 6.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........55 40 50 45 36 30
WEATHER COV.....S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 0 0 0 0
TEMP............88 82 79 78 77 75
RH..............57 72 82 85 85 90
20 FT WIND......E 14 E 12 E 8 SE 5 SE 3 SE 3
20 FT WIND GUST.21 18 15 13 10 8
MIX HGT (FT)....2900 1300 700 500 500 400
TRANSPORT WIND..E 13 E 14 SE 12 SE 10 SE 8 SE 7
DISPERSION IDX..43 11 9 6 3 3
LVORI...........1 3 4 5 6 6
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MID-LATE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5200 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 4800 FT
AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....INCREASING TO 64.
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........32 27 33 50
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 10 40
TEMP............75 80 89 92
RH..............90 79 56 49
20 FT WIND......SE 5G8 SE 7G8 SE 7G14 E 9G18
MIX HGT (FT)....500 2300 5200 7000
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 7 S 8 S 7 E 9
DISPERSION IDX..3 22 41 64
LVORI...........6 3 1 1
FORECASTER...SEDLOCK
REQUESTED BY...DUSTIN ALLEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2614284.0/MLB
.DELDT 05/22/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL DUSTIN.L.ALLEN@FLORIDADEP.GOV
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