289
FNUS72 KMLB 231603
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR SHELL FIRE...FLFIC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1203 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1200 EDT ON MAY 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONSHORE
FLOW INCREASING DURING THE DAY, RETURNING TO LIGHT WINDS LATER IN
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE BURN SITE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING
STORM POTENTIAL FROM LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STORM THREATS
INCLUDE LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS LOCALLY, AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY STAYING ABOVE CRITICAL IN THE AFTERNOON,
WITH GENERALLY GOOD TO VERY GOOD DISPERSION FORECAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT FORECAST.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3100 FT AGL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....INCREASING TO AROUND 61.
LVORI...............1.
TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........46 55 63 68 71 69
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 20 40 40 50
TEMP............90 92 92 93 91 89
RH..............54 50 48 48 52 57
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE E E
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 6 7 8
20 FT WIND GUST. 10 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.1 6.1 6.4 6.2 4.9 3.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SE SE SE SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 8 7 9 12
DISPERSION IDX..48 51 61 50 48 45
LVORI...........1 1 1 1 1 1
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL IN THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 14 MPH DECREASING TO 6 TO 8 MPH
LATE IN THE EVENING.
DISPERSION INDEX....38 DECREASING TO AROUND 3 OR 4 OVERNIGHT.
LVORI...............1 INCREASING TO 6.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........68 68 75 89 89 89 79 81 73 65 46 46
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC LKY CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 60 30 20 10 10 0 0 0 0
TEMP............88 84 81 79 78 77 77 77 76 75 75 75
RH..............60 67 79 82 85 88 88 88 87 89 92 92
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E N S SE S SE E E SE
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 2 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 FT WIND GUST.12 9 8 6 7 8 8 9 8 8 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.5 2.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.E SE E SE SE S S S SE SE S SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 14 10 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 6
DISPERSION IDX..40 35 5 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3
LVORI...........1 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN
SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 5200 FT AGL
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 3300 FT
AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 12
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....INCREASING TO AROUND 62.
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........46 40 21 29 29 31 39 48 58 59 58 45
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 10 20 20 30 60 60 60 50
TEMP............74 75 75 79 83 85 88 89 88 89 86 86
RH..............94 92 92 88 77 72 64 60 62 59 64 67
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E E
20 FT WIND SPD..1 2 2 3 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.8 9 10 12 12 13 14 15 15 16 16 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.7 2.0 2.8 3.7 4.7 5.0 5.2 3.5 2.7 3.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE S S S SE SE SE E SE SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 8 10 12 10 10 10 10 12 10 10
DISPERSION IDX..3 3 7 27 41 49 58 62 58 48 38 44
LVORI...........6 6 6 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 1
FORECASTER...SEDLOCK
REQUESTED BY...CROSBY
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2614339.0/MLB
.DELDT 05/23/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL FLFIC@FIRENET.GOV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page