266
FNUS72 KMLB 142047
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR FMU21117...ST. JOHNS RIVER WMD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
447 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON JULY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT WINDS ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWEST
FROM AROUND 10 AM THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER 2-3 PM,
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
INCIDENT SITE. ERRATIC, GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR BENEATH ANY STORM.
VERY GOOD DISPERSION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDICES FROM 100-105 ARE LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 96.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....30 INCREASING TO 40 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 54 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
INCREASING TO 65 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
DECREASING TO 55.
LVORI...............3 DECREASING TO 1 LATE IN THE MORNING.
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........18 9 10 22 33 51 51 55
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 10 20 20 20 20
TEMP............86 89 91 94 94 94 95 93
RH..............70 64 58 51 49 49 48 51
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W NW W NW
20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 8 9 10 10 10 9
20 FT WIND GUST.8 12 13 15 16 16 16 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.5 3.6 4.8 5.4 6.0 5.1 5.3 5.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW W NW NW W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 9 10 12 10 10 10 9
DISPERSION IDX..30 40 54 65 69 62 61 55
LVORI...........3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN
BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE EVENING BECOMING
WEST 5 TO 6 MPH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL EARLY IN
THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING
TO THE WEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING
INCREASING TO 6 TO 7 MPH OVERNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....37 DECREASING TO 3.
LVORI...............2 INCREASING TO 5.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........50 48 45 40 30 30 30 49 37 26 30 30
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 0 0 0 0
TEMP............92 90 86 83 81 80 79 79 78 78 77 77
RH..............52 56 65 72 74 77 79 79 82 82 85 85
20 FT WIND DIR..W W E E SE W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..8 7 5 3 3 3 5 5 5 6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.13 9 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.6 1.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W N SE SE SW W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 6
DISPERSION IDX..37 14 3 2 2 2 2 4 3 3 3 3
LVORI...........1 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 96.
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4600 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 3900 FT
AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 20 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 36 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 52 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 60
DECREASING TO 44 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
DECREASING TO 32.
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........28 22 32 31 29 25 32 39 46 44 42 40
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 30 30 30 30
TEMP............77 76 79 83 87 90 91 93 94 94 94 94
RH..............85 90 88 77 69 62 58 54 51 51 51 51
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W NW NW NW NW W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.8 8 8 9 12 13 14 14 15 15 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.5 0.9 2.0 2.9 3.9 4.6 5.3 6.0 4.9 3.9 2.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
DISPERSION IDX..3 3 7 20 31 40 48 56 64 55 44 32
LVORI...........5 6 5 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
FORECASTER...HEIL
REQUESTED BY...TODD BACKHAUS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2617369.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/14/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL TMBACKHA@SJRWMD.COM
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