479
FNUS72 KMLB 101012
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR 123 SCRUB EAST...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
612 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2020
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON JULY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
GOOD MORNING. WESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY WITH GOOD DISPERSION. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL APPROACH THE BURN SITE LATER THIS MORNING
FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0800, THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL
1100, THEN 9-15 STRIKES.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800-3700 FT AGL
IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....10 INCREASING TO 52.
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 4 IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO 1 EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 3 LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........51 51 51 65 65 65 65 65 65 45
WEATHER COV.....ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 40 40 40 40 40 30 30 30 40
LAL.............2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
TEMP............79 82 84 87 88 89 90 89 88 87
RH..............97 88 80 72 70 66 63 63 65 72
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.2 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 12
DISPERSION IDX..12 21 27 25 27 31 52 53 52 51
LVORI...........6 4 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 3
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 2000, THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL
2300, THEN NO TSTMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-600 FT AGL IN
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 7
TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO
THE WEST IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....35 DECREASING TO 6.
LVORI...............3 INCREASING TO 7.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........45 50 50 50 49 49
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 20 20 10 10 10
LAL.............3 2 2 1 1 1
TEMP............85 82 79 78 78 77
RH..............75 85 91 94 94 97
20 FT WIND......W 8 W 7 W 6 W 5 SW 5 SW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.
MIX HGT (FT)....2600 800 500 300 200 300
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 10 NE 8 NW 7 W 8 W 9 W 9
DISPERSION IDX..35 5 5 5 6 6
LVORI...........3 5 6 6 6 7
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1200, THEN >25 STRIKES.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-3900 FT AGL
LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO
3700-5100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO
3000 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....10 INCREASING TO 32 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............6 INCREASING TO 8 EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN
DECREASING TO 5 EARLY IN THE MORNING DECREASING
TO 3 IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........49 64 64 72
WEATHER COV..... DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ DEFNTE DEFNTE
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 80 80 80
LAL.............1 1 5 5
TEMP............77 82 88 88
RH..............97 83 68 65
20 FT WIND......SW 6 SW 8 W 10G14 W 10G14
MIX HGT (FT)....500 1600 3900 4400
TRANSPORT WIND..W 10 W 13 W 10 W 10
DISPERSION IDX..7 27 28 30
LVORI...........6 4 3 3
FORECASTER...KELLY
REQUESTED BY...ADAM PETERSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2009156.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/10/20
.EMAIL APETERSON@TNC.ORG, SCOTT.KELLY@NOAA.GOV
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