672
FNUS72 KMLB 230538
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR SHELL FIRE...US FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
138 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0800 EDT ON MAY 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW THIS MORNING (< 20%), WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS UP
TO AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH MIDDAY. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD PASS OVER
THE INCIDENT AREA BETWEEN 1-3 PM, WITH WINDS TURNING MORE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND PICKING UP TO 10-15 MPH. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WE FORECAST GOOD
TO VERY GOOD DISPERSION BEGINNING MID-MORNING. WHILE A FEW STORMS
MAY TRY TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING, THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING APPEAR TO BE WEST OF THE INCIDENT.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5100 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 6600 FT AGL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 3600 FT AGL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....10 INCREASING TO 27 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 41 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 52 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 45.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........58 51 43 52 60 55 71 64 61 61
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 10 10 10 30 40 40 40
TEMP............76 80 84 86 90 92 92 93 91 90
RH..............87 82 72 65 58 52 51 49 54 58
20 FT WIND DIR..SE S S S S SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..1 2 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.7 8 9 10 13 13 14 15 16 17
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 2.2 3.2 4.0 5.1 5.6 6.4 6.6 5.6 3.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S SE SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 8 10
DISPERSION IDX..10 27 38 41 43 48 53 54 55 45
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL EARLY IN
THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 7
TO 8 MPH OVERNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....40 DECREASING TO 4.
LVORI...............1 INCREASING TO 6.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........60 76 73 67 71 79 70 66 62 51 31 32
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 40 40 30 10 10 10 0 0 0 0
TEMP............88 85 82 80 78 78 77 77 77 76 76 75
RH..............61 70 77 82 85 85 88 88 85 87 87 90
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..5 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 FT WIND GUST.16 16 13 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.1 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E SE SE SE SE S S S S SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 13 9 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 8 7
DISPERSION IDX..40 25 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3
LVORI...........1 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 6
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE
IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 6200 FT AGL
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 3300 FT
AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....8 INCREASING TO 22 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 37 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 47 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 61
DECREASING TO 40 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........33 30 33 29 24 16 31 34 55 64 60 57
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 10 0 0 0 20 50 60 60 60 60
TEMP............74 75 76 79 83 85 88 90 90 90 87 87
RH..............93 90 90 88 77 72 63 58 58 58 65 68
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E E SE
20 FT WIND SPD..1 2 2 3 3 5 5 5 6 6 6 5
20 FT WIND GUST.9 9 10 12 12 12 13 14 15 15 15 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.4 1.2 1.9 2.7 3.7 4.7 4.9 6.2 4.9 2.6 3.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE S S S SE S SE SE E E SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 10 12 10
DISPERSION IDX..4 4 12 22 37 47 59 62 63 61 38 41
FORECASTER...HEIL
REQUESTED BY...BRANDON HIGHTOWER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2614325.0/MLB
.DELDT 05/23/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BRANDON.HIGHTOWER@USDA.GOV
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