506
FNUS72 KMLB 280821
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR SSF CHOP RX (SOUTH)...FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
421 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
GOOD MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
DAY. WHILE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON, MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE THE SEA BREEZE MAKING IT
AS FAR INLAND AS THE BURN SITE. DRIER AIR LINGERS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA, WITH NO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES AT THE SITE TODAY. NO MIN
RH CONCERNS, WITH MIN RH DROPPING TO AROUND 40 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SMOKE DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE
FAIR TODAY.
TUESDAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE
PUSHES INLAND. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FORECAST AROUND THE BURN SITE IN THE
AFTERNOON (RAIN CHANCES 20 PERCENT). NO MIN RH CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN LOW 90S. SMOKE DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE
FAIR.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5900 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....9 INCREASING TO 39.
LVORI...............3 DECREASING TO 1 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........18 14 19 19 18 27 29 38
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............77 82 85 88 88 89 90 88
RH..............67 56 51 45 45 42 42 45
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW S S
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.6 8 8 8 9 9 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 3.0 4.0 4.8 5.5 5.9 5.4 4.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW W SW W W W SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 6 5 6 7 7 7
DISPERSION IDX..9 21 28 29 36 42 39 38
LVORI...........3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....27 DECREASING TO 5.
LVORI...............3 INCREASING TO 7.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........44 38 36 36 48 40 31 35 37 37 48 48
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............85 83 78 77 76 75 74 73 72 70 70 69
RH..............50 57 67 69 71 74 76 79 84 90 90 93
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S N S N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..3 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0
20 FT WIND GUST.9 8 8 6 6 5 3 3 3 3 3 3
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.1 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW S S SW S S SW SW S SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 7 8 6 7 6 5 5 5 3 3
DISPERSION IDX..27 7 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2
LVORI...........2 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 7
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING LIGHT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND
5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 17 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 33 IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO
26 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............7 DECREASING TO 2.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........37 40 37 46 43 48 52 48 47 54 60 59
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10
TEMP............69 69 70 73 80 84 87 89 90 90 89 87
RH..............93 93 93 87 69 61 53 48 47 45 47 50
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N S S S S SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 5 3 5 3
20 FT WIND GUST.3 3 3 3 5 6 7 9 10 12 12 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.3 4.5 5.2 5.8 6.3 6.3 5.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.3 3 3 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 7
DISPERSION IDX..2 2 1 6 12 21 29 34 37 28 28 26
LVORI...........7 7 7 5 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 2
FORECASTER...WATSON
REQUESTED BY...ANTONIO PARIS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2622532.0/MLB
.DELDT 09/28/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL ANTONIO.PARIS@FDACS.GOV
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