207
FNUS72 KMLB 222346
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR WEST MARSH FIRE...USWFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
746 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 2000 EDT ON MAY 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
GOOD EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME EAST TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT, WITH NO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
FORECAST. THERE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORM
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND COMPARED TO TODAY, WITH A MEDIUM (40-50
PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
OR MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AROUND SUNSET EACH DAY. NO
MIN RH CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S EACH DAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 98-101 DEGREES. AFTERNOON
SMOKE DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE GOOD TO VERY GOOD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....6.
LVORI...............4 INCREASING TO 6 OVERNIGHT.
TIME (EDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........35 45 45 55 49 47 50 54 48 41
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............83 80 79 78 77 77 77 76 76 75
RH..............70 77 79 79 85 85 82 85 85 87
20 FT WIND DIR..E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1
20 FT WIND GUST.16 15 15 14 13 12 10 8 8 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E SE SE SE SE S SE SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 13 12 12 10 10 9 8 7 7
DISPERSION IDX..6 8 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3
LVORI...........3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5200 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 6600 FT AGL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 3300 FT AGL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 45 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING
TO 38.
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........53 56 39 30 22 11 19 27 34 39 46 51
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 30 30 40 50
TEMP............75 75 77 81 84 87 90 92 92 92 90 89
RH..............87 87 88 79 72 63 56 51 51 51 54 57
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE S S SE SE SE SE E E
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 1 2 3 3 5 5 5 6 7 8
20 FT WIND GUST.7 8 7 8 9 9 10 10 12 13 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.8 2.0 3.3 4.0 5.2 5.9 6.6 5.7 5.1 3.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE S S S S S S SE E SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 7 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 9
DISPERSION IDX..3 3 7 23 35 35 41 48 46 44 41 38
LVORI...........6 6 5 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
FORECASTER...WATSON
REQUESTED BY...MICHAEL ST.MARTIN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2614272.1/MLB
.DELDT 05/22/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MSTMARTI@BLM.GOV
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