045
FNUS72 KMLB 300747
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR SHELL...US FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
347 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0800 EDT ON MAY 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST NEAR THE WILDFIRE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. A MOIST
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY
AND INTO TOMORROW, KEEPING MINIMUM RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A 60-70% CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE SITE TODAY
AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY, WITH A 50-60% CHANCE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AFTERNOON SMOKE DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE VERY GOOD
TODAY AND GENERALLY GOOD ON SUNDAY.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON, THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3900 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....10 INCREASING TO 67 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON,
THEN DECREASING TO 46.
LVORI...............8 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........65 64 71 75 70 56 63 56 55 56
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 20 30 30 40 50 50 60
TEMP............74 77 80 82 84 86 86 86 87 85
RH..............100 90 85 79 72 68 65 65 63 67
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 3 3 5 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.8 9 12 13 15 17 17 18 18 17
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.3 1.9 2.4 3.2 3.9 3.4 2.9 3.3 3.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 8 9 10 13 14 14 13 13 12
DISPERSION IDX..10 13 22 33 52 67 55 46 52 46
LVORI...........8 5 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL IN THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....42 DECREASING TO 4.
LVORI...............1 INCREASING TO 6.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........50 41 36 35 22 27 23 21 25 42 39 44
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 30 20 20 10 0 0 0 0 10 10 20
TEMP............85 84 81 79 78 78 77 77 76 75 75 75
RH..............67 70 77 82 82 82 85 85 87 90 90 90
20 FT WIND DIR..W NW W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2
20 FT WIND GUST.16 15 13 12 12 12 12 10 12 10 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.6 2.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 12 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8
DISPERSION IDX..42 28 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
LVORI...........1 3 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
DECREASING TO 3100 FT AGL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 50 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON,
THEN DECREASING TO 18.
LVORI...............7 DECREASING TO 1, THEN INCREASING TO 3.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........47 50 49 65 51 63 68 63 70 60 64 56
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 30 30 40 50 50 70 70 70 70
TEMP............74 75 75 78 81 84 86 87 88 88 86 85
RH..............97 94 94 85 79 72 68 65 63 63 68 70
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..1 2 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.9 9 9 10 10 10 12 13 14 14 14 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 1.0 2.0 2.8 3.2 3.8 4.4 4.2 2.1 2.0 2.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 8 9 10 9 9 10 9 8 8 8
DISPERSION IDX..4 3 11 23 36 37 41 50 44 21 18 18
LVORI...........7 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 2 3 3
FORECASTER...TOLLEFSEN
REQUESTED BY...BRANDON HIGHTOWER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2614527.3/MLB
.DELDT 05/30/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BRANDON.HIGHTOWER@USDA.GOV
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