051
FNUS72 KMLB 030556
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR SAVANNAS SP17...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
156 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON AUGUST 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
THERE IS ONLY A LOW CHANCE, 20% OR LESS, OF SHOWERS BEFORE 1 PM.
EXPECT WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UP TO AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD TRY TO FORM, AND MAY STALL
NEAR THE INCIDENT SITE AFTER 2-3 PM. VARIABLE WINDS FROM SW TO SE
ARE FORECAST, UP TO 10 MPH, IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE TO AROUND 60% BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM, WITH A FEW
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO 40-50 MPH. PEAK
DISPERSION SHOULD BE VERY GOOD BY AROUND NOON TODAY.
HYSPLIT WILL BE SENT VIA A SEPARATE EMAIL MESSAGE.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN DECREASING TO 1800 FT AGL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....9 INCREASING TO 26 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 44 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING
TO 34 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 22.
LVORI...............8 DECREASING TO 4 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
DECREASING TO 2 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
INCREASING TO 3 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........44 40 41 44 46 59 62 60 65 74
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 10 10 20 40 50 50 60
TEMP............78 83 85 87 89 89 89 90 86 85
RH..............95 83 79 72 68 67 67 63 71 73
20 FT WIND DIR..S S SW SW SW SW S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 5 7 7 6 6 6 7 6
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 12 10 12 12 13 13 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 1.0 1.9 2.8 3.4 3.8 3.6 3.0 2.7 1.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW S
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 9 10 12 12 12 10 10 9 9
DISPERSION IDX..4 13 26 40 44 47 41 37 31 22
LVORI...........8 4 3 3 2 1 2 2 3 3
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 8 TO
10 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH EARLY IN
THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....15 DECREASING TO 5 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LVORI...............4 INCREASING TO 6 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........79 74 54 69 62 55
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY S CHC S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........LIKELY S CHC S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).60 20 20 10 0 0
TEMP............84 79 77 77 76 76
RH..............76 88 94 91 92 90
20 FT WIND......S 5 S 5 S 3 S 2 S 2 S 2
20 FT WIND GUST.12 10 10 9 9 9
MIX HGT (FT)....1600 500 600 500 400 400
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 8 S 8 S 9 S 8 S 8 S 9
DISPERSION IDX..17 5 5 4 4 4
LVORI...........3 5 6 6 6 6
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 7 TO
8 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....6 INCREASING TO 16 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............8 DECREASING TO 4 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........53 56 65 77
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 50
TEMP............74 81 87 87
RH..............98 85 72 72
20 FT WIND......SW 2G8 SW 2G7 SW 3G7 SE 5G10
MIX HGT (FT)....400 1000 2200 1800
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 E 7
DISPERSION IDX..3 9 19 16
LVORI...........8 4 3 3
FORECASTER...HEIL
REQUESTED BY...MIRANDA CUNNINGHAM
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2618857.0/MLB
.DELDT 08/03/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MIRANDA.CUNNINGHAM@FLORIDADEP.GOV
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