210
FNUS72 KMLB 260541
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR SHELL FIRE...US FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
141 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0800 EDT ON MAY 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
THE OVERALL WEATHER SITUATION TODAY IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM
YESTERDAY. HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, AS DO STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZES FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. PEAK DISPERSION SHOULD BE VERY GOOD THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GREATER STORM CHANCES (60-70%)
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 TO 40 MPH ARE A
THREAT FROM ANY STORM, ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 6100 FT AGL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 4000 FT AGL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 17 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....29 INCREASING TO 58 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 77 IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 87 EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 73 DECREASING TO 48
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........14 12 15 16 22 23 33 41 46 54
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 0 0 0 10 20 30 30 40
TEMP............77 81 84 87 90 92 92 93 91 90
RH..............88 76 69 61 54 49 47 45 48 50
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..8 9 10 12 12 12 10 9 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.15 17 18 20 20 20 21 21 21 20
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.6 2.8 3.7 4.6 5.0 6.1 6.1 5.5 4.6 4.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S SE SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 16 17 17 16 14 13 12 10 9
DISPERSION IDX..29 58 77 75 77 79 87 73 52 43
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....44 DECREASING TO 7.
LVORI...............1 INCREASING TO 6.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........45 45 35 45 53 69 65 60 59 60 54 38
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 30 30 20 20 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............89 86 83 81 79 79 78 78 77 76 76 76
RH..............52 62 74 79 82 82 85 85 88 87 87 87
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 10 9 7 5 5 5 5 5 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.20 17 15 13 10 10 12 12 13 12 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.3 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S SE S
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 12 12 9 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 9
DISPERSION IDX..44 32 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4
LVORI...........1 1 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5200 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 1900 FT
AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 21 EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 34 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 54 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 69
DECREASING TO 23 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........39 43 35 46 40 53 63 65 74 82 84 76
WEATHER COV..... CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 70 70 70 70
TEMP............75 76 76 80 84 86 89 91 91 92 89 88
RH..............90 87 94 85 71 63 56 51 50 49 55 57
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE S S S S S SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 8
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 12 14 16 16 17 17 18 18 18 17
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 1.4 2.3 3.3 4.2 5.2 6.0 5.5 5.8 1.9 1.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE S S S S S S S S S S SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 9 12 12 12 13 10 10 10 10 9 8
DISPERSION IDX..4 6 21 34 49 55 58 72 66 68 23 22
FORECASTER...HEIL
REQUESTED BY...BRANDON HIGHTOWER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2614325.3/MLB
.DELDT 05/26/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BRANDON.HIGHTOWER@USDA.GOV
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