593
FNUS72 KMLB 190802
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR SSR WILDFIRE...FDEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
402 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0700 EDT ON JULY 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
GOOD MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY LATE MORNING AS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF TIGHTENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL. FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE
WILL KEEP MINIMUM RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, WITH A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY START AROUND THE WILDFIRE SITE
AS EARLY AS 7 AM, WITH PEAK COVERAGE OF STORMS FORECAST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON, GENERALLY AFTER 3 PM, AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
EVENING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD
CAUSE MINOR, LOCALIZED FLOODING. ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MONDAY, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA, SUPPORTING HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS (40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN) IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSION
VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY GOOD BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 15 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 48.
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........25 24 23 39 41 34 33 43 36 38 51
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 30 30 20
TEMP............76 78 82 86 88 90 92 92 92 92 90
RH..............94 94 82 72 68 62 58 58 58 58 62
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 8 10 12 12 12 13 13 13 13
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 14 16 17 17 18 18 20 20 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.7 1.7 3.0 3.5 3.7 4.1 4.4 4.0 3.4 2.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S SE SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 9 12 13 15 15 14 14 14 13 15
DISPERSION IDX..3 7 24 49 50 51 52 51 48 43 43
LVORI...........6 5 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....31 DECREASING TO 9 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LVORI...............3 INCREASING TO 5 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........43 37 46 45 53 55 47 39 41 40 35 40
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............89 87 84 82 81 81 81 80 79 79 78 77
RH..............64 70 74 79 82 79 79 82 85 85 88 90
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE S SE S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..13 12 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 9
20 FT WIND GUST.18 18 17 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 14 13 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10
DISPERSION IDX..34 28 11 9 9 10 9 6 7 8 7 8
LVORI...........2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....10 INCREASING TO 49.
LVORI...............5 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........29 25 35 31 34 31 27 29 33 33 48 47
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 30 50 30 30
TEMP............77 76 79 82 86 89 91 92 93 92 93 91
RH..............90 94 88 82 72 66 60 58 56 60 58 60
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S SE
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 9 10 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
20 FT WIND GUST.17 17 17 17 18 18 20 20 20 20 18 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.1 3.8 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.0 3.6 3.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 13
DISPERSION IDX..7 7 12 30 41 46 51 53 53 48 45 45
LVORI...........5 5 4 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
FORECASTER...WATSON
REQUESTED BY...IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2617695.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/19/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL PATRICK.SULLIVAN@FLORIDADEP.GOV
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