679  
FNUS72 KMLB 171001  
FWSMLB  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR LOX RIVER...SFWMD  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
601 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2020  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 17.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
GOOD MORNING. AN INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE  
AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY GOOD DISPERSION TODAY. WIND  
DIRECTION WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH, POSSIBLY SOUTH  
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE  
SOUTHEAST AFTER 5 PM BEHIND A SEA BREEZE.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1400, THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL  
1700, THEN 9-15 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.  
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 15 MPH EARLY IN  
THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800-4700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 16 MPH.  
DISPERSION INDEX....6 INCREASING TO 24 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 42 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING  
TO 52 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 38.  
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 4 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN  
DECREASING TO 1 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING  
TO 3 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........39 39 48 48 48 58 58 58 60  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 30  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3  
TEMP............81 85 88 89 90 91 90 90 89  
RH..............85 75 68 66 62 60 62 64 66  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 10 13 14 14 14 15 16 16  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 14 17 18 18 18 21 22 22  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.6 2.7 3.7 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.4 4.1 3.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 14 16 16 15 14 13 13 12  
DISPERSION IDX..24 42 55 55 53 49 42 38 34  
LVORI...........4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 3  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,  
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE  
EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 2000, THEN NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.  
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-3000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-900 FT AGL  
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH.  
DISPERSION INDEX....29 DECREASING TO 6 EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
LVORI...............4 INCREASING TO 6 LATE IN THE EVENING.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........60 62 62 57 40 40  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........CHANCE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 20 20 10 10 10  
LAL.............3 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............87 83 81 79 78 77  
RH..............70 80 85 91 91 94  
20 FT WIND......S 14 S 8 S 5 S 5 SW 6 SW 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.18  
MIX HGT (FT)....3000 1500 900 500 300 200  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 12 SW 10 S 10 S 9 SW 8 SW 9  
DISPERSION IDX..31 7 7 6 5 6  
LVORI...........3 4 4 6 6 6  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0800, THEN 9-15 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.  
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100-4700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 10 MPH.  
DISPERSION INDEX....8 INCREASING TO 18 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 33 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING  
TO 45 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 50  
DECREASING TO 40 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 4 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN  
DECREASING TO 1 IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO  
3 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........49 32 32 50  
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 50 50 50  
LAL.............1 3 3 3  
TEMP............78 80 88 89  
RH..............94 88 68 66  
20 FT WIND......SW 6 S 6 S 9 S 9  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 1500 3700 4200  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 9 SW 9 SW 10 SW 10  
DISPERSION IDX..6 18 42 48  
LVORI...........6 4 1 1  
 

 
FORECASTER...KELLY  
REQUESTED BY...GENE COLWELL  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2012698.0/MLB  
.DELDT 09/17/20  
.EMAIL GCOLWELL@SFWMD.GOV  
 
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