165  
FNUS72 KMLB 272123  
FWSMLB  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR SE-1900/SSF_RX_BURN...FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
523 PM EDT WED MAR 27 2024  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1800 EDT ON MARCH 27.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
   
..TWO REQUESTS FOR THIS FIRE, SO COMBINED
 
   
..PLEASE CALL IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS, 321-255-0212
 
 
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WELL TO THE WEST  
IS RACING EASTWARD, ALREADY EAST OF THE BURN AREA. NORTHWEST WIND  
GUSTS WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN RECORDED BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.  
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD COME BACK DOWN IF THEY HAVE NOT BY THE TIME THIS  
REQUEST IS RECEIVED. THERE STILL MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD FOR LIGHT  
WESTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE THEY REVERT BACK TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST  
TO SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL  
REMAIN A SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH THE  
GREATEST THREAT LATE OVERNIGHT AND JUST AFTER DAWN THURSDAY MORNING  
AS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY  
MOST LIKELY WILL BE PAST THE BURN AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON  
THURSDAY. GUSTY/BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT THROUGH THE DAY  
ON THURSDAY, POST-FRONTAL.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH  
THE NIGHT. SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1-8 STRIKES.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE/ERRATIC THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, THEN SOUTH  
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 14 MPH.  
DISPERSION INDEX....31 DECREASING TO 8.  
LVORI...............1 INCREASING TO 8.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........84 84 85 82 80 77 75 72 70 73 77 80  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 40 40 40 60  
LAL.............2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
TEMP............81 78 75 74 73 71 71 69 69 68 69 68  
RH..............63 71 79 82 84 90 90 97 97 100 97 100  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 14 12 9 8 8 7 7 9 12 14  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 9 12 14  
DISPERSION IDX..31 8 9 7 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 10  
LVORI...........1 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 7 7  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN  
THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN  
THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE  
MID TO LATE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1-8 STRIKES UNTIL 1100, THEN NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.  
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH QUICKLY SHIFTING TO  
THE NORTHWEST 13 TO 15 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH EARLY SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHWEST 21 TO 23 MPH BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON.  
DISPERSION INDEX....12 INCREASING TO NEAR 100.  
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 1.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........79 78 75 63 42 21  
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........S CHC S CHC S CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).60 40 40 10 0 0  
LAL.............2 2 2 1 1 1  
TEMP............68 67 70 75 78 79  
RH..............97 100 81 62 47 41  
20 FT WIND......SW 8 SW 10 W 13 NW 14 NW 15 NW 15  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 17 20 21 22 22  
MIX HGT (FT)....800 1300 2000 3600 4900 5600  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 15 W 16 NW 21 NW 22 NW 22 NW 23  
DISPERSION IDX..12 28 40 58 91 100  
LVORI...........6 4 4 1 1 1  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.  
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 21 MPH DECREASING TO 8 TO 9 MPH IN  
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
DISPERSION INDEX....87 DECREASING TO 6.  
LVORI...............2 INCREASING TO 6.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........14 19 9 3 1 1  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............76 69 64 62 59 56  
RH..............43 59 70 72 78 83  
20 FT WIND......NW 14 N 10 N 7 N 6 N 6 N 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 12 9 8 8  
MIX HGT (FT)....5200 600 600 600 400 400  
TRANSPORT WIND..N 21 N 14 N 9 N 8 N 8 N 8  
DISPERSION IDX..87 9 5 4 4 4  
LVORI...........1 2 3 3 4 5  
 

 
FORECASTER...SEDLOCK  
REQUESTED BY...CHRISTAPHER PEACOCK/MICHAEL PENN  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2408643.0/MLB  
.DELDT 03/27/24  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL CHRISTAPHER.PEACOCK@FDA.GOV,MICHAEL.PENN@FDACS.GOV  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab FL Page Main Text Page