479  
FNUS72 KMLB 101012  
FWSMLB  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR 123 SCRUB EAST...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
612 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2020  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON JULY 10.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
GOOD MORNING. WESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS  
EXPECTED TODAY WITH GOOD DISPERSION. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL APPROACH THE BURN SITE LATER THIS MORNING  
FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS  
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0800, THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL  
1100, THEN 9-15 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.  
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800-3700 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 13 MPH.  
DISPERSION INDEX....10 INCREASING TO 52.  
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 4 IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY  
AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO 1 EARLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 3 LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........51 51 51 65 65 65 65 65 65 45  
WEATHER COV.....ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 40 40 40 40 40 30 30 30 40  
LAL.............2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
TEMP............79 82 84 87 88 89 90 89 88 87  
RH..............97 88 80 72 70 66 63 63 65 72  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.2 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 12  
DISPERSION IDX..12 21 27 25 27 31 52 53 52 51  
LVORI...........6 4 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 3  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,  
THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY  
IN THE EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.  
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 2000, THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL  
2300, THEN NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-600 FT AGL IN  
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 7  
TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO  
THE WEST IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
DISPERSION INDEX....35 DECREASING TO 6.  
LVORI...............3 INCREASING TO 7.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........45 50 50 50 49 49  
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD  
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 20 20 10 10 10  
LAL.............3 2 2 1 1 1  
TEMP............85 82 79 78 78 77  
RH..............75 85 91 94 94 97  
20 FT WIND......W 8 W 7 W 6 W 5 SW 5 SW 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.  
MIX HGT (FT)....2600 800 500 300 200 300  
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 10 NE 8 NW 7 W 8 W 9 W 9  
DISPERSION IDX..35 5 5 5 6 6  
LVORI...........3 5 6 6 6 7  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1200, THEN >25 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.  
MIN HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-3900 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO  
3700-5100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO  
3000 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 13 MPH.  
DISPERSION INDEX....10 INCREASING TO 32 IN THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............6 INCREASING TO 8 EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN  
DECREASING TO 5 EARLY IN THE MORNING DECREASING  
TO 3 IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........49 64 64 72  
WEATHER COV..... DEFNTE DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ DEFNTE DEFNTE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 80 80 80  
LAL.............1 1 5 5  
TEMP............77 82 88 88  
RH..............97 83 68 65  
20 FT WIND......SW 6 SW 8 W 10G14 W 10G14  
MIX HGT (FT)....500 1600 3900 4400  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 10 W 13 W 10 W 10  
DISPERSION IDX..7 27 28 30  
LVORI...........6 4 3 3  
 

 
FORECASTER...KELLY  
REQUESTED BY...ADAM PETERSON  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2009156.0/MLB  
.DELDT 07/10/20  
.EMAIL APETERSON@TNC.ORG, SCOTT.KELLY@NOAA.GOV  
 
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