183
FNUS72 KMLB 170837
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR JDSP FIREFEST 2026...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
437 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON OCTOBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE BURN SITE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGH TODAY INTO TONIGHT (UP TO 80%), WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2-4" PRIMARILY FROM MID
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A 1 IN 10 CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6", WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS FOR MARTIN COUNTY
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ANY STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
UP TO 40-45 MPH.
NO MIN RH CONCERNS ARE FORECAST, AND DESPITE INCREASING SURFACE AND
TRANSPORT WINDS, LOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL KEEP DISPERSION VALUES
POOR TO FAIR.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86.
MIN HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH, BECOMING NORTH 10
TO 15 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 13
TO 14 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....26.
LVORI...............4.
TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........64 78 77 80 81
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC LKY LKY DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 50 60 60 80
TEMP............84 83 81 79 79
RH..............77 80 85 91 88
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW N N
20 FT WIND SPD..7 8 9 10 12
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 13 15 20
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.7 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W NW N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 10 10 13 14
DISPERSION IDX..29 22 22 23 25
LVORI...........3 3 4 4 4
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SHOWERS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 12 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 16 TO 22 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....28 DECREASING TO 21 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LVORI...............5.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........87 89 85 82 76 77 81 78 75 73 75 71
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).80 80 70 70 70 80 70 70 60 60 60 60
TEMP............77 76 76 75 75 75 75 74 74 74 74 74
RH..............94 94 94 94 94 94 94 97 93 93 93 90
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..12 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 15
20 FT WIND GUST.18 21 22 23 25 25 26 28 29 29 30 30
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N N N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.16 18 18 18 18 18 20 22 21 20 20 21
DISPERSION IDX..27 29 17 17 18 17 17 24 23 19 20 21
LVORI...........4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83.
MIN HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 16 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 32 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4100 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 21 TO 26 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....20 INCREASING TO 66.
LVORI...............5 DECREASING TO 3 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........64 62 63 55 52 49 58 68 70 77 73 68
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 40 40 40 30 30 30 40 40
TEMP............72 73 74 76 79 80 81 81 80 80 81 79
RH..............97 90 90 87 79 77 74 74 74 74 72 74
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..16 16 17 17 18 18 20 20 20 20 20 20
20 FT WIND GUST.31 31 30 31 30 30 30 31 32 32 32 32
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.3 0.5 0.7 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.7 4.1 4.0 3.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.21 21 21 22 25 26 24 25 25 22 22 25
DISPERSION IDX..21 18 28 50 59 65 63 65 68 64 65 66
LVORI...........5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
FORECASTER...WEITLICH
REQUESTED BY...ROB ROSSMANITH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2623915.0/MLB
.DELDT 10/17/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL ROBIN.ROSSMANITH@FLORIDADEP.GOV
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