586
FNUS72 KMLB 231640
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR 3RD STRIKE (48)...FFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1240 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1300 EDT ON AUGUST 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
PREVAILING WEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY, HOWEVER WINDS MAY OFTEN
BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD APPROACH
THE FIRE LOCATION AFTER 1:15 PM. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST AND IS
NOT EXPECTED TO PASS THE FIRE TODAY. THERE ARE NO CRITICAL RH CONCERNS.
SMOKE DISPERSION SHOULD BE GENERALLY GOOD.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....56 DECREASING TO 35 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............2 INCREASING TO 3 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........76 83 75 78 79
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 50 50 40 30
TEMP............90 88 90 88 84
RH..............64 65 61 66 71
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 9 8 7
20 FT WIND GUST.16 16 15 13 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.9 4.0 3.8 3.2 2.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 12 12 9 8
DISPERSION IDX..59 55 53 39 30
LVORI...........1 1 1 2 3
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL IN THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 5 TO
6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....22 DECREASING TO 4.
LVORI...............4 INCREASING TO 6 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........72 52 56 50 44 45 35 35 30 22 19 31
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 50 10 10 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0
TEMP............85 81 79 78 78 77 77 77 77 76 75 75
RH..............70 79 88 91 88 90 90 90 90 90 93 93
20 FT WIND DIR..W SW SE SE SE S S S SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..6 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.9 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.4 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W SE SE SE S S S SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 6 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 6
DISPERSION IDX..22 6 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 3
LVORI...........3 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH LATE
IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 7 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 5800 FT AGL IN
THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 3300 FT AGL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AROUND 7 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 18 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 35 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 45 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 32.
LVORI...............7 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........22 14 12 12 18 23 16 24 32 33 39 48
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 30 30 30
TEMP............75 75 77 80 85 88 90 92 93 93 93 90
RH..............93 93 95 88 75 68 62 55 55 53 52 58
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SE
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 3 2 3 5 5 6 6 6 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.3 3 5 5 6 8 8 9 9 10 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.3 1.2 2.4 3.5 4.5 5.3 5.8 5.6 4.8 3.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 3 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
DISPERSION IDX..2 2 1 7 18 31 38 45 49 47 41 32
LVORI...........6 6 7 5 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1
FORECASTER...LAW
REQUESTED BY...STEPHANIE AYALA
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2620311.0/MLB
.DELDT 08/23/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL STEPHANIE.AYALA@FDACS.GOV
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