073
FNUS72 KMLB 241310
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR HILOCHEE WMA PRESCRIBED BURN...FWC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
910 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON JUNE 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
GOOD MORNING. OFFSHORE (WSW-SW) FLOW AT 5-10 MPH WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS A FRONT STALLS OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SEA BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SLOWING INLAND
PROGRESSION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE, WHICH SHOULD STAY EAST
OF THE BURN SITE. THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE
BURN SITE AFTER 6 PM. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW FROM INITIALLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE SEA BREEZE AS EARLY AS 2 PM
COULD RESULT IN WIND SHIFTS SOONER. GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND AND COLLIDES WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE, BECOMING SCATTERED (CHANCES AROUND 40%) ON THE SEA BREEZE
COLLISION IN THE EVENING. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MIN RH
AROUND 50%. AFTERNOON DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY GOOD
TODAY. OFFSHORE FLOW BECOME MORE LIGHT/SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT DEPARTS AND THE RIDGE AXIS LIFTS TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SIMILAR SEA BREEZE EVOLUTION AND RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED. SMOKE
DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE GOOD TO VERY GOOD ON THURSDAY.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....25 INCREASING TO 44.
LVORI...............4 DECREASING TO 1 IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........46 50 50 49 51 48 49 56 64
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 20 30 30 40 40 50
TEMP............82 85 87 89 90 91 91 92 90
RH..............85 75 70 64 62 58 56 54 58
20 FT WIND DIR..W NW W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 6 6 6 6 8 10 7
20 FT WIND GUST.9 8 8 8 9 10 10 13 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 2.8 3.5 4.0 4.5 4.3 4.7 4.0 3.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W SW SW W W SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 6 7 7 7 8 8 10 10
DISPERSION IDX..22 22 28 35 39 45 46 48 40
LVORI...........4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE
EVENING SHIFTING TO THE WEST LATE IN THE
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL IN THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 10 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 7 MPH
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....30 DECREASING TO 4.
LVORI...............3 INCREASING TO 6.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........62 65 68 60 53 50 43 29 18 18 18 17
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 40 40 30 20 10 10 10 0 0 0 0
TEMP............89 88 84 82 81 79 79 78 77 76 76 75
RH..............59 61 70 74 74 79 82 85 88 90 90 94
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W N SE W W SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..5 7 7 6 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 2
20 FT WIND GUST.12 10 10 12 10 9 8 6 5 5 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.4 1.7 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.W SW W SW S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 9 8 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 5
DISPERSION IDX..30 20 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 2
LVORI...........2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 6700 FT AGL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 3000 FT AGL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
AROUND 12 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....38 INCREASING 64 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
DECREASING TO 58 DECREASING TO 45 LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 2.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........17 16 15 17 19 20 32 44 56 58 60 61
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 30 40 50
TEMP............75 75 77 81 85 87 90 92 93 93 94 92
RH..............94 94 90 82 72 68 60 54 51 51 49 52
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 3 3 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 8
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 12 12 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.6 1.6 2.5 3.5 4.4 5.4 6.2 6.7 5.2 3.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 12
DISPERSION IDX..2 2 4 14 26 38 50 60 68 58 46 43
LVORI...........6 6 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
FORECASTER...WATSON
REQUESTED BY...LOGHAN LOMNECK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2616110.0/MLB
.DELDT 06/24/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL LOGHAN.LOMNECK@MYFWC.COM
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