765  
FNUS72 KMLB 201003  
FWSMLB  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR JDSP FIREFEST 2018 DEMONSTRATION BURNS...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
603 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 EDT ON OCTOBER 20.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL  
PREVAIL TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FLORIDA  
PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR DISPERSION CONDITIONS THIS  
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING,  
BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS  
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT DISPERSION. RELATIVE HUMIDITY  
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.  
 
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN.....10 PERCENT.  
LAL................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE....AROUND 87.  
MIN HUMIDITY.......64 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT).......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT......600-900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200-3400 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS....EAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 2 TO 3  
MPH.  
DISPERSION INDEX...5 INCREASING TO 12 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
LVORI..............7 DECREASING TO 3.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%)............39 39 38 38 38 38 38 38 34 34 34 34  
WEATHER COV........  
WEATHER TYPE.......  
TSTM COV...........  
CHC OF PCPN (%)....10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
LAL................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP...............77 76 76 78 80 82 83 85 87 86 85 84  
RH.................85 87 89 85 81 78 73 68 64 66 69 72  
20 FT WIND DIR.....SW W NW NW W W NW NE E E NE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD.....2 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST....  
MIX HGT (KFT)......0.7 0.7 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR....E N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW N N NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD....3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3  
DISPERSION IDX.....1 1 2 3 4 5 7 9 12 12 12 12  
LVORI..............6 7 7 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 3 3  
 
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN.....10 PERCENT.  
LAL................NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE....AROUND 74.  
MAX HUMIDITY.......94 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT).......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT......500-800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 6 TO  
8 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
DISPERSION INDEX...6.  
LVORI..............4 INCREASING TO 6 IN THE LATE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%)............34 39 39 39 50 50  
WEATHER COV........  
WEATHER TYPE.......NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV...........  
CHC OF PCPN (%)....10 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL................1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP...............83 81 80 78 77 76  
RH.................74 78 80 82 84 87  
20 FT WIND.........NE 6 E 5 SE 3 S 3 SW 3 W 3  
20 FT WIND GUST....  
MIX HGT (FT).......2100 1300 1000 700 500 500  
TRANSPORT WIND.....NE 3 E 3 SE 5 S 6 SW 6 W 7  
DISPERSION IDX.....10 2 2 2 3 3  
LVORI..............3 4 5 5 5 6  
 
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN.....20 PERCENT.  
LAL................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE....AROUND 84.  
MIN HUMIDITY.......67 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT).......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 14 MPH, THEN  
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT......300-700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300-3600 FT AGL  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS....NORTH 7 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHEAST 20 TO  
25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
DISPERSION INDEX...5 INCREASING TO 72.  
LVORI..............6 DECREASING TO 1.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%)............50 51 51 68  
WEATHER COV........ S CHC S CHC S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.......NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV...........  
CHC OF PCPN (%)....0 20 20 20  
LAL................1 1 1 1  
TEMP...............75 77 83 83  
RH.................90 85 70 67  
20 FT WIND.........W 5 NW 8 N 13G17 N 16G22  
MIX HGT (FT).......500 1300 3400 3600  
TRANSPORT WIND.....NW 9 NW 10 N 20 N 25  
DISPERSION IDX.....5 18 60 75  
LVORI..............6 4 3 1  
 

 
 
FORECASTER...BRAGAW  
REQUESTED BY...ROB ROSSMANITH  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1817108.0/MLB  
.DELDT 10/20/18  
.EMAIL ROBIN.ROSSMANITH@DEP.STATE.FL.US  
 
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