936
FNUS72 KTBW 141747
FWSTBW
SPOT FORECAST FOR AVIATION EXERCISE 2026...FLORIDA FORESTRY SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1247 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0000 EST ON JANUARY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (813) 645-2323 IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR
CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, THEN SLOWLY CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN 20 MPH ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL SEE CRITICAL HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA, BUT WINDS
WILL BE MUCH LOWER BY THEN, WHICH WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY RED
FLAG WARNINGS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY CREEP UP FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE MORE DRY AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 3 AM.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST 7 TO 8 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
10 TO 14 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
DISPERSION INDEX....7.
LVORI...............8.
TIME (EST) MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........71 74 81
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 70 40
TEMP............58 58 57
RH..............97 99 100
20 FT WIND......SW 5 SW 6 NW 7
20 FT WIND GUST.8 10 13
MIX HGT (FT)....500 500 1000
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 6 SW 7 NW 10
DISPERSION IDX..4 5 7
LVORI...........7 8 8
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 17 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 22 TO 29
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....19 INCREASING TO 36 EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 51 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 67 IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
INCREASING TO 73 DECREASING TO 51 LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.
TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........78 79 61 66 37 7
WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 30 20 10 0 0
TEMP............56 55 58 59 58 57
RH..............100 100 92 84 76 63
20 FT WIND......NW 9 NW 12 NW 14 NW 16 NW 17 NW 17
20 FT WIND GUST.15 17 20 23 24 23
MIX HGT (FT)....1400 1500 2500 3400 3800 3400
TRANSPORT WIND..N 12 NW 15 NW 22 NW 25 NW 28 NW 28
DISPERSION IDX..15 36 63 71 75 70
LVORI...........6 4 4 4 2 1
THURSDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 30.
MAX HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 13 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5
MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 16 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....28 DECREASING TO 7.
LVORI...............3.
TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........4 1 1 2 4 5
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............51 46 43 39 36 33
RH..............65 73 73 65 60 60
20 FT WIND......NW 13 NW 9 N 8 N 7 N 6 N 6
20 FT WIND GUST.20 16 14 13 13 12
MIX HGT (FT)....600 800 800 800 700 600
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 16 NW 15 N 14 N 13 N 12 N 10
DISPERSION IDX..28 4 8 6 4 5
LVORI...........2 3 3 3 3 3
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE MORNING
BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....13 INCREASING TO 16 LATE IN THE MORNING.
LVORI...............3.
TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........5 4 1 3 3 3
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............30 34 44 53 59 61
RH..............62 57 47 39 34 33
20 FT WIND......NE 5 NE 5 NE 5 E 3 E 2 NE 2
20 FT WIND GUST.9 8 7 6 5 5
MIX HGT (FT)....500 700 1300 2000 2500 2800
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 10 NE 10 E 10 E 7 SE 5 SE 5
DISPERSION IDX..8 13 17 18 18 16
LVORI...........3 2 2 2 2 2
FORECASTER...WYNN
REQUESTED BY...TOMMY PRICE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2600159.0/TBW
.DELDT 01/14/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL TOMMY.PRICE@FDACS.GOV,NWS.TAMPABAY@NOAA.GOV,RODNEY.WYNN@NOAA.GOV
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