237
FNUS72 KTBW 151049
FWSTBW
SPOT FORECAST FOR AVIATION EXERCISE 2026 DAY 1...FLORIDA FORESTRY SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
549 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 EST ON JANUARY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (813) 645-2323 IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR
CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
LINGERING SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF DURING THE MORNING
FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR RAPIDLY FILTERING INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON ON BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, LEADING TO
POTENTIALLY ELEVATED DISPERSIONS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
MINIMUM RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE THRESHOLDS TODAY BUT DROP BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, CONCURRENT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA, THEREFORE NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO
18 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 23 MPH INCREASING TO 23 TO 30
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....27 INCREASING TO 45 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 60 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 70 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 51.
LVORI...............3.
TIME (EST) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM
SKY (%).........82 74 60 60 18 3
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 20 40 10 0 0
TEMP............56 60 58 57 57 54
RH..............100 87 92 88 69 61
20 FT WIND......N 8 N 12 NW 14 NW 17 NW 18 NW 16
20 FT WIND GUST.14 18 21 24 25 24
MIX HGT (FT)....1300 2100 2800 3300 3600 2700
TRANSPORT WIND..N 15 N 21 NW 20 NW 26 NW 30 NW 23
DISPERSION IDX..22 40 56 67 73 51
LVORI...........5 4 4 4 1 1
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 31.
MAX HUMIDITY........69 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH AROUND 6 MPH OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 17 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....29 DECREASING TO 8.
LVORI...............2.
TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........3 1 1 1 2 4
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............50 46 42 39 36 33
RH..............63 66 67 62 57 57
20 FT WIND......NW 14 NW 10 N 7 N 6 N 6 N 6
20 FT WIND GUST.22 17 14 13 12 12
MIX HGT (FT)....600 700 600 500 600 500
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 17 NW 16 N 14 N 13 N 12 N 12
DISPERSION IDX..29 5 7 6 5 5
LVORI...........1 3 3 3 3 3
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 8 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 3 TO
7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....13.
LVORI...............3.
TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........3 5 1 2 3 3
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............31 32 44 52 58 60
RH..............60 59 47 38 33 33
20 FT WIND......N 5 NE 3 NE 3 E 3 E 2 E 2
20 FT WIND GUST.9 7 7 6 6 5
MIX HGT (FT)....400 600 1300 2000 2400 2700
TRANSPORT WIND..N 10 NE 9 NE 9 E 7 E 5 SE 3
DISPERSION IDX..8 12 16 17 16 12
LVORI...........3 2 2 2 2 2
FORECASTER...HURT
REQUESTED BY...TOMMY PRICE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2600050.0/TBW
.DELDT 01/15/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL NWS.TAMPABAY@NOAA.GOV,RODNEY.WYNN@NOAA.GOV,RICK.DAVIS@NOAA.GOV,TOMMY.PRICE@FDACS.GOV
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