840  
FNUS72 KTBW 211257  
FWSTBW  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR HENSCRATCH 2021 INCIDENT...FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RUSKIN FL  
857 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON OCTOBER 21.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (813) 645-2323 IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR  
CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY WINDS  
WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
A WEAK FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY THEN  
STALLS OUT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. LIGHTER 20 FOOT WINDS  
AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SUPPORT LOW DISPERSION OVER THE BURN  
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN  
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
 
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........16 24 16 17  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............77 83 86 86  
RH..............65 55 49 48  
20 FT WIND......E 6 E 6 E 6 E 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (FT)....1500 4400 5300 5300  
TRANSPORT WIND..E 7 E 9 SE 6 E 3  
DISPERSION IDX..42 55 35 25  
LVORI...........1 1 1 2  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........14 29 23 22 11 17  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............83 77 73 71 70 69  
RH..............53 67 79 86 89 92  
20 FT WIND......E 5 E 6 E 5 E 3 E 2 E 1  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 8 7 6 5 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....2900 1000 500 500 400 300  
TRANSPORT WIND..E 6 E 8 E 9 E 6 SE 3 E 3  
DISPERSION IDX..14 4 3 3 2 1  
LVORI...........2 3 4 5 7 7  
 

 
FORECASTER...MCMICHAEL  
REQUESTED BY...ROBERT VIERA  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2119874.0/TBW  
.DELDT 10/21/21  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
.EMAIL ROBERT.VIERA@FDACS.GOV  
 
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