230  
FXUS62 KKEY 101400  
AFDKEY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL  
1000 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2022  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THIS  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, KEY WEST CONTINUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY  
SKIES. MIMIC- TOTAL PRECIPITABLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IN FACT DRIER  
AIR HAS STARTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. IN ADDITION, THE KEY  
SOUNDING 10/12Z CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR IN THE MID  
LEVELS. OUR SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS  
DECREASED SINCE LAST NIGHT AND IS NOW 1.76 INCHES. AT THIS TIME,  
KBYX IS DEPICTING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ON OUR EASTERN CWA, WHILE  
STRATIFORM RAIN IS DEPICTED ON OUR WESTERN CWA (LEFTOVERS FROM  
EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS). TEMPERATURES IN THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN  
THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH DEW POINT IN THE MID 70S.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRIER AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAHARA  
AIR LAYER AS SEEN ON THE GOES-16 SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING  
PRODUCT UW- CIMMS/NOAA-HRD. THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPRESS  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY, AS IT CONTINUES TO  
FILTER INTO OUR ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH 10  
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SEEMS REASONABLE FOR TODAY. SURFACE WINDS  
WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALL-  
IN ALL, THE WEATHER FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE  
PLANNED OR NEEDED AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN EFFECT  
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, RIDGE  
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE  
WILL SLOWLY DIP SOUTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, RESULTING IN  
SLACKENING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES. AS AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH  
APPROACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO  
THE WEEKEND, BREEZES WILL SLACKEN FURTHER, BECOMING LIGHT TO  
GENTLE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON  
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A  
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF A SHOWER OR  
STORM IMPACTING EITHER TERMINAL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT  
INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT  
OF THE EAST NEAR 10 KNOTS.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ON THIS DAY IN 1987, A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 98 DEGREES WAS  
RECORDED IN MARATHON. THIS ALSO TIES FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE  
EVER RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF AUGUST FOR THE MARATHON AREA.  
TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1950.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
KEY WEST 90 81 91 82 / 10 10 10 10  
MARATHON 93 82 93 82 / 10 10 10 10  
 

 
   
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...CLR/KR  
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DEVANAS  
DATA ACQUISITION.....SMS  
 
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