240
FXUS62 KKEY 300834
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
434 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A REVERSE CLOUD LINE IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY DEVELOPING
CLOUD LINE WILL TEND TO FAVOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES EXPECTED TODAY
BECOMING MAINLY LIGHT BREEZES TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 1 FOOT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS, EXCEPT SE GULF: 1-2 FT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOW MEAN LAYER RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE KEYS REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MEAN LAYER RIDGE. MARINE OBSERVATIONS PLATFORMS
SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE OBSERVING SOUTHWEST TO WEST
BREEZES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. KBYX RADAR HAS NOT DETECTED ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR COMPARED TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
MOVED INTO THE REGION. GOES 19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY
SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE KEYS WITH MAINLY LOW LEVEL
CUMULUS, THOUGH, THERE ARE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM
THE SE GULF INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
FORECAST
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND WEST INTO THE KEYS FOR TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, THOUGH, MUCH WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. EXPECT
MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES TODAY BECOMING LIGHT
TONIGHT. WHILE A GENERALLY QUIET DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY, A
REVERSE CLOUD LINE IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN. WE DO HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE, THEREFORE, THE CLOUD LINE
MAY STRUGGLE A BIT. HOWEVER, IF IT DOES DEVELOP, ANY CLOUD LINE
WILL TEND TO FAVOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT. OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUD
LINE DEVELOPMENT, THE HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES PUSHING CLOSE TO 108 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO WON'T PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.
THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RETREAT SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PLACE THE KEYS
INTO A COL REGION RESULTING IN A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BREEZES. MOISTURE UNDULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AROUND THE RIDGE RESULTING IN SLIGHT RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES.
ALSO, EXPECT CONTINUED TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND,
THE HIGH WILL REGAIN SOME CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN
BREEZES FRESHENING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, THOUGH, STILL MOSTLY REMAIN
SLIGHT CHANCES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THESE BECOME
CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE. IT JUST DEPENDS ON HOW
MUCH MORE IT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 80S.
THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TO MOVE
THE KEYS FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SIGNAL A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LUMBERING INTO THE KEYS OR NEARBY. OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE JUST SHOWS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH AN UPTICK IN
RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, IF THE PRIOR SOLUTION OCCURS, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR FEISTIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS MORE
WIDESPREAD. THIS WOULD ALSO COME WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS
WELL. RIGHT NOW, IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO TELL EXACTLY THE DETAILS OF
WHAT MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE ONE TREND BEING PICKED UP ON IS FOR
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DETAILS FOR WHEN
AND HOW MUCH, INTENSITY OF ANY ACTIVITY REMAINS ALL BUT HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES AS WE CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE
FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A WEAK NEBULOUS FLOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES. A COL REGION WILL SET UP FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES. AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE
NORTH ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL FRESHEN BY THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BOTH EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY TILL THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. A REVERSE CLOUD LINE REMAINS POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR TODAY. A
FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS CLOUD
LINE. DUE TO AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON THIS CLOUD LINE DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON, VCSH WAS INCLUDED FOR MARATHON WHERE ANY ACTIVITY LOOKS
MOST LIKELY.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY ON 2009, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 86F
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872.
ON THIS DAY IN 2017, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 85F
WAS RECORDED IN MARATHON. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE
BACK TO 1951.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 84 91 84 / 10 0 10 0
MARATHON 91 83 90 83 / 10 0 10 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND X AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.X.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page