879
FXUS62 KKEY 200333
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1033 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND.
-BOUTS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
-DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THORUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED A DRY-ADIABATICALLY,
WELL-MIXED LAYER FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND THE 925 ISOBARIC
SURFACE. THE LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY CONSTANT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE
IS THEN CAPPED BY A THERMODYNAMICALLY-STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE,
ALBEIT SATURATED. GOES-19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SUPPORTS
THIS SATURDATED LAYER BETWEEN 925-830 MB, WITH A RELATIVELY THICK
STRATUS DECK ADVECTING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE KEYS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. OWED TO NOCTURNAL TRAPPING OF OUTGOING LONGWAVE
RADIATION, TEMPERATURES HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN A FEW DEGREES SINCE
THIS EVENING, WITH AVAILABLE LAND-BASED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S AT THIS HOUR.
TONIGHT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND NIL RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP ONLY A FEW
DEGREES OVERNIGHT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS, MAINLY TOWARD
SUNRISE. IN THE UPPER KEYS, THE DROP WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE OWED
TO DRAINAGE FROM THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND IN THE MEAN FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLIES. NO CHANGES PROPOSED FOR THIS LATE EVENING
UPDATE CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS
MARINE ZONES. FROM SYNOPSIS, AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, LEADING TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BOUTS OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES THROUGHOUT
THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC MID- LATE WEEK WHILE WEAKENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SLACKENING BREEZES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026
BOUTS OF MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE BOUTS OF MVFR
CIGS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN NIL RAIN CHANCES AT THE TERMINALS.
CLEARING CONDITIONS, WITH VFR CONDITIONS, ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST, SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS CONTINUING ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 59 72 65 76 / 0 0 0 10
MARATHON 59 71 65 77 / 0 0 0 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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