026
FXUS62 KKEY 261448
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1048 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE KEYS
COASTAL WATERS.
- VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LEAD
TO BOUTS OF MAJOR RISK OF HEAT ILLNESS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
WITH LITTLE RELIEF DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
- UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THIS
WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES.
- A GENERAL 1-3" OF RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, ARE POSSIBLE AT MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING ARE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED IN A CORRIDOR BETWEEN ELBOW CAY TO T
TOWER. RELATIVELY DRIER IS MOVING IN AND WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WINDS
WITH BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST CONDITIONS. AS SUCH, SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN ACTIVE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE EACH DAY AND NIGHT, WE WILL SEE A MINIMUM
THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN CHANCES, THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS
NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY PEAKS. MEANWHILE, BREEZES WILL BE SLOW TO
EASE BUT WILL EVENTUALLY RELINQUISH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
OTHER THAN A SMALL CHANGE TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, MADE NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE
SOUTHEAST GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY SLACKEN THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZES WILL NOTICEABLY SLACKEN AND VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AS THE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT EYW TODAY WITH BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS. MTH MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM PASSING SHOWERS,
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. WHILE
A MAJORITY OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LIGHT SHOWERS, A FEW HAVE
GROWN TALL ENOUGH TO SHOOT OFF A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BEFORE
COLLAPSING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER
80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S MAKING FOR YET AGAIN ANOTHER
MUGGY MORNING. ACROSS THE REEF WIND OBSERVATIONS ARE SOUTHEASTERLY
AT NEAR 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, THE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
ASSISTING WITH FRESHENING BREEZES WILL SHIFT EASTERLY ALLOWING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN RESULTING IN A SLIGHT SLACKENING OF
WINDS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS THE RIDGES CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EASTERLY FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND MAKES WAY FOR
TROUGHING TO ENTER THE REGION. THE RESULTING MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION FOR WINDS WILL BRING IN TROPICAL MOISTURE CREATING MORE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. WHILE HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THESE
SHOWERS, WE ARE NOT MENTIONED IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
UNTIL FRIDAY AS A MARGINAL RISK, THOUGH WE HAVE BEEN PLACED UNDER
GENERAL THUNDER FOR DAYS 1-3 IN THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE
SHIFT IN PATTERN AND RESULTING SHOWERS AND STORMS PROBABILITIES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND ADJUSTED AS NEEDED
THROUGHOUT THE COMING DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 81 90 81 / 20 40 50 40
MARATHON 87 80 87 79 / 20 40 50 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031-032-035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page