140
FXUS62 KKEY 311732
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
132 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC
STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO FLORIDA AND THE GULF. THIS WILL AID
IN BREEZY, POSSIBLY WINDY, CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
- THE FAST FLOW AND MODEST MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
- MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEYS FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. EVEN THOUGH SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
ENOUGH TO DENT THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WHILE SOME BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE AREA, MENTION IN THE TAFS ARE
NOT NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, HAWK
CHANNEL, AND FLORIDA BAY AND THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS. FROM
SYNOPSIS, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL MEANDER EAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT, EXPECT EASTERLY
FRESH BREEZES, OCCASIONALLY STRONG, ESPECIALLY IN THE STRAITS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. BREEZES WILL ALSO OCCASIONALLY PEAK
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND LULL IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND ACROSS THE
SE GULF.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, MAINLY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS A GENERALLY STAGNANT PATTERN REMAINS
IN PLACE. TO THE SOUTH, A RIDGE REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS
AND GUATEMALA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS RIDGE NUDGES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE
EASTERN GULF AND ACROSS FLORIDA. IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS, RIDGING
REMAINS DOMINANT WITH THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC WITH
THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDING INTO FLORIDA AND THE
GULF. WITH LOWER PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, THIS IS KEEPING A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. MARINE OBSERVATIONS PLATFORMS ARE
RECORDING MAINLY EAST BREEZES OF NEAR 20 KNOTS AS A RESULT. GOES
19 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS ESTIMATED PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE MEDIAN FOR THE DATE. KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN MOSTLY ACTIVE
OVERNIGHT SHOWING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH, NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AS WELL
WITH SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT GUSTING TO 32 KNOTS AROUND 1230 AM EDT
WITH A SHOWER. GOES 19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY
STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE KEYS RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 70S AND DEW
POINTS ARE NEAR 70 DEGREES.
FORECAST
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
MEANDER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAINLY EASTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE, EXPECT BREEZY TO
POTENTIALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AS A RESULT. MOISTURE UNDULATIONS AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
EPISODIC SHOWERS WITH SOME PERIODS WETTER THAN OTHERS. INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN WEAK TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, MODEST
INSTABILITY RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY RESULTING
IN SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
DEW POINTS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S,
OCCASIONALLY NEAR 70 DEGREES.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ031-032-035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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