355
FXUS62 KKEY 230229
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1029 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL KEYS
COASTAL WATERS.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHED BREEZES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
HEIGHTS ARE DECREASING AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WITH ZONAL WESTERLIES ALOFT AND A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. POISED TO MOVE OFFSHORE TO THE EAST. KBYX RADAR
INDICATED A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OFFSHORE TENNESSEE REEF
AND FRENCH REEF, WITH TOPS MAINLY 12K FEET OR LESS. EASTERLIES
HAVE REMAINED MODERATE TO FRESH JUST A FEW KNOTS DOWN FROM EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS WINDS HAVE EDGED A BIT
OVER HARBOR BANK NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS CLOSER TO 20 KNOTS, BUT
THIS WAS WELL- ADVERTISED BY SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC SHORT-
RANGE/MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM AND HRRR. WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO EASE THERE BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE KEYS WITH DEW POINTS RIGHT AROUND A
PLEASANT 60F. THE EVENING SOUNDING PRECIPITABLE WATER CAME IN
ABOUT TENTH OF AN INCH UNDER RECENT GOES19 RETRIEVALS, AND DESPITE
A NEAR 6C LAPSE RATE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DESPITE A FEW
MOISTURE LAYERS ALOFT, SURFACE AND MIXED LAYER BUOYANCY DIDN'T
MOVE THE NEEDLE OFF ZERO J/KG. WHILE EASTERLIES OVER THE STRAITS
TEND TO MODERATE THINGS, THE 57F DEWPOINT AT NASSAU TO OUR EAST
SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MODERATION IS BEING OFFSET A
BIT BY THIS SUBTLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. GOES19 INDICATES HIGHER PWAT
VALUES OVER 1.6 INCHES LURKING IN THE WESTERN STRAITS.
OVERNIGHT, THE MODERATE TO FRESH EAST BREEZES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE STRAITS AND GRADUALLY WORKING
THEIR WAY CLOSER TO THE ISLAND CHAIN IN EAST-TO-WEST SHALLOW
STREETS. THUNDER-LESS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR
OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE BEING LOWERED AT THE 1030 PM EDT
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUANCE, HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION AS WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
EASTERLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
SATAN SHOAL HAS DECREASED TO AROUND 3.5 FEET WITH MAXIMUM HEIGHTS
HAVING DECREASED TO AROUND 5 FEET. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
BREEZES OVERNIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MIGRATE INTO
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC, BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SLACKEN AS WELL AS SHIFT TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER THE WEEKEND PROMOTING LIGHT TO
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH EAST WINDS SUSTAINED 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON THURSDAY AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. INCREASING CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS MAINLY
FL100 AND ABOVE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN COVERAGE OVER PRIMARILY THE
GULF AND STRAITS WATERS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTS TO THE
TERMINALS LIKELY HOLDING OFF AFTER 24/00Z. THUS, NO TEMPOS OR
VCSH/VCTS WAS MENTIONED IN THE 23/00Z TAFS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JR
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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