173
FXUS62 KKEY 131807
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
107 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
..NEW MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS TONIGHT BRINGING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES PEAKING OVERNIGHT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF SUNDAY MORNING.
-DRYING AND FRESHENING BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, WITH POST-FRONTAL WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
-AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MID-WEEK, MILD, MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 107 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN PROLIFIC ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF WOOD'S
WALL CRACK. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, EXPECTED COVERAGE TO EXPAND TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEAS, OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES, AND POTENTIALLY BLINDING DOWNPOURS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION, EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES ACROSS THE WATERS
SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN TO BRIEFLY SLACKEN ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT. EXPECTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE NORTHWEST
STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OUTER GULF WATERS AND
OVERTAKING THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS TOWARDS SUNSET SUNDAY. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BREEZES WILL SHARPLY FRESHEN WITH
A PERIOD OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG BREEZES POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. BREEZES, THEREAFTER, WILL SLACKEN BUT WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON
BUT HAS THUS FAR STAYED JUST OUTSIDE OF 10 NM OF THE EYW TERMINAL.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON FOR BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS, PEAKING THIS EVENING. HAVE
INTRODUCED VCSH TO BOTH EYW AND MTH WITH A TEMPO FOR TS AT EYW AROUND
SUNSET. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SOONER AND WILL BE HANDLED
WITH AMENDMENTS IF NEEDED. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION, WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT EXPECT A
BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 427 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE NEAR 70F,
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S. WINDS ALONG THE REEF ARE GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS, DRIVEN BY HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
THIS GRADIENT IS STRONGEST OVER THE WATER CURRENTLY ACCOUNTING FOR
THESE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE REEF AND OFFSHORE. SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS BEING OBSERVED ON
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY, WHILE LOWER-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN
LIMITED. KBYX RADAR SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE DISTANT
STRAITS, THOUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN HAS REMAINED GENERALLY RAIN-FREE
OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO START TO SLACKEN THIS
MORNING, THEREFORE THE HEADLINE "SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
UNTIL WINDS DECREASE" IS IN PLACE FOR THE HAWK CHANNEL AND STRAITS
OF FLORIDA UNTIL THOSE WINDS COME DOWN EARLY AFTERNOON. LATER IN
THE DAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
WATERS WILL DRIVE A FRONT THROUGH THE KEYS. PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAIN CHANCES PEAKING TONIGHT AT 80%.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH STARTING
LATE SUNDAY MORNING RAPIDLY DRYING OUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. POST- FRONTAL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH POSSIBLY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT TIGHTENS. MID-WEEK, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, RESULTING IN GENERALLY
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL (~10%) WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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