778
FXUS62 KKEY 310351
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1051 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
GALE-FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
-A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON
SATURDAY, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
-VERY COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY AND/OR A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS.
-THE STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING ON OUR GULF AND BAY SIDE WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS/ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
QUIET WEATHER REMAINS ALONG THE KEYS FOR THE TIME BEING. A BROAD
DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX ACROSS THE FLORIDA REGION IS
RESULTING IN BROADLY GENTLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY BREEZES ACROSS
THE KEYS. SKIES ARE A MIX OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO
MULTIPLE LOW TO MID LEVEL DECKS. SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE MODERATED
QUITE A BIT TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S
AND DEW POINTS NOT MUCH LOWER AT NEAR 60. DESPITE THIS, STABLE
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH ZERO CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR THROUGH
THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. EARLIER SHOWER AND RAIN PATCHES HAVE LONG
SINCE MOVED EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA.
THE COMPLICATED LOW WILL SWING EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A DEEPENING LOW. AS A RESULT, WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THIS FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DROP A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.
NEARSHORE GULF AND BAY SIDE WATERS, CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S,
SHOULD COOL A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND HELP TO HOLD OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEAR 60 FOR MOST ISLAND LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ESSENTIALLY NIL FOR MUCH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE LONG ANTICIPATED POWERFUL COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF. AS THE FRONT
NEARS THE KEYS, EXPECT WINDS TO SURGE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY MORNING TO NEAR 25 MPH AND GUSTY, ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
FURTHER TO 30 TO 35 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 45 MPH LATE
SATURDAY AS A POWERFUL 1040-1045 MB HIGH SPILLS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
PLAINS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS PERIOD.
IN ADDITION, THE STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ON OUR GULF AND BAY SIDE WATERS. THESE BREEZES, ALONG WITH
SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES FALLING POSSIBLY INTO THE 30'S IN THE
UPPER KEYS AND NEAR OR JUST BELOW 50 IN THE LOWER KEYS WILL RESULT
IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 20'S TO 30'S, RESPECTIVELY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
A DISORGANIZED ARRAY OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AROUND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL CONSOLIDATE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP BREEZES BROADLY GENTLE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH KEYS WATERS
ON SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY SURGE TO 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS SATURDAY MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR ACROSS KEYS WATERS WITH
BREEZES FRESHENING EVEN FURTHER TO NEAR 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR
40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT ISLAND TERMINALS. A POWERFUL
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE KEYS ON SATURDAY. A ROUND OR TWO
OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL SURGE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT, LIKELY BRINGING SUB VFR CEILINGS AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM 4 AM EST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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