806
FXUS62 KKEY 020939
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
439 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN AND
VEER TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
-BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN AND VEER AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND SOME AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER LOCAL
WATERS BY EARLY WENESDAY MORNING.
-A BENIGN FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH RAIN
CHANCES NEAR NIL, INCREASED HUMIDITY INITIALLY, BEFORE A DIP
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MID WEEK BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN BY THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL EARLY WEEK,
NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK, AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
A RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL EARLY MORNING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE KEYS
ON THIS SECOND DAY OF DECEMBER. KBYX RADAR DETECTS A COUPLE
BOUNDARIES DRIFTING THROUGH OUR CWA WITH A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS
BUBBLING NEAR THE DRY TORTUGAS AND THE 409 HUMPS. GOES-19
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY PAINTS A SIMILAR PICTURE WITH A
SCATTERED FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN THE ROPE CLOUDS NOTATING
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES IN OUR AREA. LOOKING NORTH OUTSIDE OF OUR
AREA, A MASS OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH MARCHING
TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS PAINTED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
CONUS. THE SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES TO PROMOTE MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES ACROSS
THE REEF. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUCH WARMER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 70S BUT FEELING JUST AS
STEAMY WITH DEW POINTS PERSISTING IN THE LOWER 70S.
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ONE DESCRIBING A TRANSITION BETWEEN
PATTERNS. DEEP LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO PRESS EAST SHIFTING THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR MODERATE
SOUTHEAST BREEZES SLACKENING AND VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE DAY. TONIGHT THE TREND WILL CONTINUE AS WINDS CONTINUE
TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
LUMBERING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MAINLAND FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN GULF.
WHILE RAIN CHANCES STILL FLOAT AROUND NEAR NIL, WARM TEMPERATURES
AND MOIST DEWPOINTS OVER COOLER WATERS IS A RECIPE FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A NORTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION THAT WILL
HELP ADVECT ALREADY FORMED FOG FROM MAINALND'S COASTLINE.
LATER ON WEDNESDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SCRAPE THROUGH
OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL AND BRIEF RESPITE TO ONGOING
MILD CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DIP
TO NEAR 70 THURSDAY MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO THE UPPER
60S. OF COURSE, THIS WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE'S INFLUENCE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
RETURN IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. AS THE MOIST AIR MASS NEVER REALLY
GETS CLEARED OUT, SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE KEYS AS
WINDS RETURN TO THEIR MORE FAMILIAR SOUTHEASTERLY POSITIONS.
THOUGH, IF EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS TO BE BELIEVED, ANOTHER COLD FRONT
(THIS TIME SOMEWHAT STRONGER) IS SET TO SWEEP THROUGH IN THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DRYING THINGS OUT ONCE AGAIN. WE JUST MIGHT BE
SEEING SOME "WINTER" WEATHER HERE THEN, BUT STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES THIS MORNING AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ON THE HEELS OF
THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ITS CORRESPONDING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRESS THROUGH THE KEYS MID TO LATE WEEK
RESULTING IN FRESHENING NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES. ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS BACK IN FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH GENTLE
BROADLY SOUTHERN BREEZES RETURNING IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AT BOTH EYW AND
MTH. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER DURING THE PERIOD FROM
SOUTHEASTERLY, TO SOUTHERLY, TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNSET AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT NOT AT SUFFICIENT CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. MARINE FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, BUT IS
MORE LIKELY AFTER THE 06Z PERIOD ENDS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2018, A DAILY WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 81F WAS
RECORDED AT KEY WEST. THIS OBSERVATION SET THE RECORD AS THE WARMEST
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD IN DECEMBER. IN ADDITION, THE AVERAGE DAILY
TEMPERATURE ON THIS DAY WAS 83.0 F, MAKING IT THE WARMEST
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER DAY ON RECORD IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 71 79 70 / 10 10 10 0
MARATHON 82 71 78 70 / 10 10 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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