888
FXUS62 KKEY 050844
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
344 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2021
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MAINLY NORTH WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 MPH, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG
THE FLORIDA KEYS. MEANWHILE, LOCAL RADARS ARE VOID OF ANY
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR ENTIRE REGION. ON OUR MARINE DISTRICT,
WINDS ARE MAINLY NORTHWEST TO NORTH VARYING FROM 9 KNOTS AT
CARYSFORT REEF LIGHT TO 15 KNOTS AT SAND KEY LIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
THE WESTERN TAIL OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH REACHING INTO THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS INTO EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SAG TO ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF THE ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA TONIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A WELL
PRONOUNCED MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
REGION WILL PLOW EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SATURDAY, BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE SUNSHINE STATE
AND OUR AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE ALOFT
ALONG WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK WILL
INVIGORATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH APPEARS WILL PASS THROUGH
OUR ENTIRE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THAT, AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE, SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT WILL PROMPT LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN A
GOOD CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER, STRONG LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE FORMIDABLE AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY
TUESDAY, BEFORE RETREATING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH THAT, MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BUT
REMAIN CONFINED BELOW 850 MB ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MEANWHILE, THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE CELL AND LOWER PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WINDY
CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
HENCE, ISOLATED 10 TO 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES SEEM REASONABLE
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AND CLOCK
AROUND TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTH AND FRESHENING SATURDAY NIGHT. BEYOND
THAT, STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY TURN
EASTERLY AND REMAIN STRONG INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH
THAT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED BEGINNING
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS TODAY AND
THIS EVENING, WITH ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED STRATOCU BETWEEN 2500 AND
3500 FEET EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NNE AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE SUNRISE, THEN VEER TO
THE NE AND EASE TO 6 TO 9 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
IN 2010, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 53 DEGREES WAS LAST
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 77 70 78 65/ - 10 30 50
MARATHON 78 70 80 65/ - 10 30 50
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JACOBSON
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page