957
FXUS62 KKEY 260250
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
950 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
-LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
-NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A MAINLY DRY PATTERN ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
-THE NEXT, POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 950 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
OFFSHORE COOL DENSITY DRAINAGE FROM THE MAINLAND IS LIKELY TO
BEGIN LATER TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. BROAD UPPER RIDIGING CONTINUES OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF TO THE WESTERN GULF STATES, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND FALLING SLIGHTLY OVER
FLORIDA AS THE NARROW WESTERN END OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES
SOUTHEAST WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST/EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN
ON PRECIPITABLE WATER DERIVED GOES PRODUCTS AND TRAPPED UNDER AN
INVERSION OVER THE EASTERN STRAITS, SLIDING SOUTHWARD ALMOST IN
BACK-DOOR FASHION. THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE IN
THE STRAITS HAS BEEN WITH US THROUGHOUT THE EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
SPRINKLED DETECTED BY THE BYX 88D FROM TIME TO TIME.
OVER THE KEYS, TEMPREATURES WERE APPROACHING 70F WITH DEWPOINTS
RECOVERING A BIT TO THE MID 60S. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH
WERE LIGHT FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE UPPER KEYS. ALONG
THE REEF, WINDS RANGED FROM WESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OFF KEY LARGO
TO A STEADIER NORTHERLY WIND JUST UNDER 10 KNOTS OFF KEY WEST. THE
EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED AN INCREASE IN THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER SINCE THIS MORNING, BUT ACTUALLY BACK TO NEAR WHERE
IT WAS WEDNESDAY EVENING RIGHT ABOUT 850 MB. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER HAS CHANGED ONLY ON THE MATTER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS THE PAST
24 HOURS, WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST SINCE IN THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND
FEET WITH ONLY A GRADUAL BACKING TO NORTHWEST WINDS ABOVE.
A CHANGE BEING CONTEMPLATED IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST IS THE REMOVAL
OF RAIN CHANCES OVER THE KEYS PROPER, BUT MAINTAINING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WITH FORECASTED MINIMUMS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE MAINLAND AND WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND
74F OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA BAY, EXPECT A GENTLE NORTHERLY BREEZY
DURING THE EARLY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO HOLD IN THE
UPPER 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 950 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
THERE ARE NO ADVISORIES NOR SMALL CRAFT CAUTION HEADLINES IN THE
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST TONIGHT. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO
MODERATE MAINLY NORTHERLY BREEZES OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN
AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, LEADING TO SLACKENING BREEZES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 950 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY BROKEN BASED AT
FL050-060 MAY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF MTH FROM TIME TO TIME. NEAR
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY 4 TO 8 KNOTS, BECOMING MORE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AND LIKELY BACKING TO A MORE
DUE NORTH DIRECTION AFTER THE FOLLOWING SUNSET.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JR
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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