888  
FXUS62 KKEY 050844  
AFDKEY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL  
344 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2021  
   
DISCUSSION
 
   
CURRENTLY
 
 
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MAINLY NORTH WINDS  
OF 10 TO 15 MPH, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG  
THE FLORIDA KEYS. MEANWHILE, LOCAL RADARS ARE VOID OF ANY  
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR ENTIRE REGION. ON OUR MARINE DISTRICT,  
WINDS ARE MAINLY NORTHWEST TO NORTH VARYING FROM 9 KNOTS AT  
CARYSFORT REEF LIGHT TO 15 KNOTS AT SAND KEY LIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
THE WESTERN TAIL OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH REACHING INTO THE NORTHWEST  
BAHAMAS INTO EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SAG TO ALONG THE NORTH  
COAST OF THE ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA TONIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING  
NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A WELL  
PRONOUNCED MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS  
REGION WILL PLOW EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF  
MEXICO SATURDAY, BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE SUNSHINE STATE  
AND OUR AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE ALOFT  
ALONG WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK WILL  
INVIGORATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH APPEARS WILL PASS THROUGH  
OUR ENTIRE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THAT, AN INCREASE IN  
MOISTURE, SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL  
ASCENT WILL PROMPT LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN A  
GOOD CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER, STRONG LARGE SCALE  
SUBSIDENCE AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES  
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
THE FORMIDABLE AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE  
SOUTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY  
TUESDAY, BEFORE RETREATING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WELL  
INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH THAT, MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BUT  
REMAIN CONFINED BELOW 850 MB ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE. MEANWHILE, THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH  
PRESSURE CELL AND LOWER PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WINDY  
CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  
HENCE, ISOLATED 10 TO 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES SEEM REASONABLE  
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AND CLOCK  
AROUND TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE  
GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTH AND FRESHENING SATURDAY NIGHT. BEYOND  
THAT, STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY TURN  
EASTERLY AND REMAIN STRONG INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH  
THAT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED BEGINNING  
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS TODAY AND  
THIS EVENING, WITH ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED STRATOCU BETWEEN 2500 AND  
3500 FEET EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NNE AROUND 10 KNOTS  
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE SUNRISE, THEN VEER TO  
THE NE AND EASE TO 6 TO 9 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
IN 2010, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 53 DEGREES WAS LAST  
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1872.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
KEY WEST 77 70 78 65/ - 10 30 50  
MARATHON 78 70 80 65/ - 10 30 50  
 

 
   
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...APA  
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JACOBSON  
 
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY  
 
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