611
FXUS62 KKEY 161756
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
156 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES (AROUND 60-70%) WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY. MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE KEYS CAN GENERALLY EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
- GENTLE TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 MPH) BREEZES WILL RELAX BY FRIDAY.
WHILE BREEZES WILL THEN BE LIGHT TO GENTLE (5 TO 10 MPH) THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TERMINALS, BOUTS OF
FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A GENERAL LULL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS, COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A GENERAL MENTION OF
VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO THE CHAOTIC NATURE OF THE
ACTIVITY AND LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. SUB-VFR IMPACTS TO
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE LEFT FOR LATER TAF AMENDMENTS,
INCLUDING POSSIBLE TEMPO GROUPS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
THE WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO GET WETTER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. RIDGING TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY STEERING FLOW THAT WILL ENCOURAGE A DEEPER BOUNDARY
LAYER, MOISTURE FLUX AND CELL FORMATION. IN ADDITION, COMPLICATED
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONGEAL OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
CONTRIBUTE TO A BROAD LOWER LEVEL TROUGH UNDERNEATH. THE ALREADY
AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS, AND BROAD LOWER
LEVEL TROUGHING SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES TICKING HIGHER OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT TREND IN TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO PUSH NEAR 90 WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
RAIN CHANCES MAY BE SLOW TO COME DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKEN WHILE THE LOW/TROUGH COMPLEX OVER US
WILL TRY TO SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE ELEVATED ACROSS OUR REGION AS A BROAD ZONE OF
MOIST CONFLUENT FLOW WILL NATURALLY PERSIST BETWEEN THE NEARBY
TROUGH AND THE HIGH WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARDS THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME, THERE IS ENOUGH IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN HIGH TO LIKELY
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST, AND POSSIBLY EVEN
LONGER. WITH ALL THAT SAID, UNCERTAINTY IS USUALLY HIGH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, AS WELL AS
SUDDENLY BUILDING AND CONFUSED SEAS.
FROM SYNOPSIS, GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY, AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL THEN SLACKEN AND SHIFT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS AND SLIPS INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. A WET PATTERN
WILL PERSIST ACROSS KEYS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY, AS AN
UPPER- LEVEL LOW RETROGRADES WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 81 91 80 / 60 60 60 60
MARATHON 90 81 89 81 / 60 60 60 60
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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