373
FXUS62 KKEY 081511
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1111 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- GENTLE TO MODERATE BROADLY EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL,
PEAKING OVERNIGHT AND LULLING DURING THE DAY.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN DETECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGER CELLS LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN
AREA OF OUR GULF WATERS. WHILE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PLENTIFUL, THE
ISLAND CHAIN HAS ONLY SEEN MINIMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
FEW HUNDRETHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE NEARING 90 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. APART
FROM CONVECTIVE LOCATIONS GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELITTE REVEALS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MAKING FOR A NICE HOT SUMMER DAY. ALONG THE
REEF, MARINE OBSERVATION SITES ARE REPORTING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
OF NEAR 10 KNOTS. AS THE DAY CONTINUES ON, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DWINDLE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH RESULTING IN ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT. GENTLE BREEZES
WILL ONCE AGAIN FRESHEN TONIGHT TO GENTLE TO MODERATE IN AN
OVERNIGHT SURGE. AS THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE THEREFORE NO
MODIFICATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE PACKAGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
CONSIDERABLY DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE FINALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS IS DUE TO DEEP LAYERED ATLANTIC RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO THE GULF. IN ADDITION,
WINDS HAD RELAXED TO A LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES THROUGH THE
EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS ALSO FALLEN TO 2.08 INCHES. THIS
IS STILL ABOVE THE 75 PERCENTILE FOR THE DAY AND INHIBITION HAS
BEEN ABSENT. HOWEVER, CAPE WAS LIMITED BELOW 800 MB.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGH, EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES HAVE INCREASED TO GENTLE TO MODERATE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE EXERTS MORE CONTROL OVER OUR AREA.
THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN PLANTED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF THROUGH
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT BREEZES TO PEAK IN THE GENTLE
TO MODERATE RANGE OVERNIGHT AND LULL TO LIGHT TO GENTLE DURING THE
DAY. NO TREND IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REMAINING
NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. DEW POINTS WILL HOVER IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
IN GENERAL, THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES SLIM
TO NONE THROUGH THE FORECAST, SCATTERED ACTIVITY CURRENTLY WORKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
IN ADDITION, A SUBTLE LOWER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY NUDGE POPS UP INTO LOW
CHANCE RANGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, AN ATLANTIC HIGH OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE MOSTLY EASTERLY BREEZES ON OUR WATERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
SIZABLE SWINGS IN WIND SPEEDS, LULLING DURING THE DAY AND PEAKING
OVERNIGHT. PERIODIC CAUTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR PORTIONS OF
OUR WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE DURATION.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. VCSH IS INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER AND ARE LESS LIKELY TO CROSS NEAR THE
AIRPORTS. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTHEASTERLY AT NEAR 10 KNOTS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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