717
FXUS62 KKEY 290250
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
950 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BEFORE A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
-NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A DRY PATTERN ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.
-THE NEXT, COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL BRING ONLY SLIM RAIN CHANCES AND
A MODEST STEP DOWN IN TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE TO ROUND OUT THE
YEAR.
-POSTAL FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES, DROP IN
HUMIDITY, AND A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST
DAY OF 2025 AND THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE NEW YEAR 2026.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 950 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025 TEMPERATURES WERE SLUGGUSH
TO FALL TO NEAR 70F AT THE AIRPORTS THIS EVENING, HOWEVER MID 60S
WERE ALREADY NOTED OVER NORTHERN BIG PINE KEY AS WINDS HAVE BEEN
LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SKIES WERE CLEAR WITH WINDS NEAR
CALM OVER THE ISLANDS AND MAINLY NORTHEAST 5 TO 9 KNOTS ALONG THE
REEF. 3.9 MICRO SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS THE STRAITS BOUNDARY
AS MERE SHALLOW CLOUDS, BUT MAINTAINING ITS SLIGHT INTEGRITY AS A
CONFLUENCE BETWEEN EAST WINDS OVER THE OPEN STRAITS AND THE LIGHT
NORHTEAST WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS EVENING'S SOUNDING CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY TREND MORE
MOIST, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER CREEPING CLOSER TO ONE INCH, AND
STILL BELOW THE DELAY MEAN OF 1.09 INCHES. A 3C INVERSION REMAINS
BASED NEAR 3500 FEET.
SYNOPTICALLY, THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN MID/UPPER HEIGHTS
OVER FLORIDA THE PAST 24 HOURS, DESPITE THE SOUTHEAST DIVE OF THE
IMPRESSIVE MID/UPPER CYCLONE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE
HIGH MAY BE MOVING EASTWARD OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC, YET ITS
SOUTHWEST RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
EASTERN GULF.
NO CHANGES TO THE PUBLIC FORECASTS AS PLANNED THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 950 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025 NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR
ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS.
FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER IN THE EASTERN GULF OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, RESULTING IN LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES. MAINLAND
NOCTURNAL LAND BREEZES MAY DRIVE BRIEF BOUTS OF GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHERLIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARDS ACROSS KEYS WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO FRESHENING NORTHERLY
BREEZES THROUGHOUT ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. WHILE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 950 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025 VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS, AND FREQUENTLY CALM, ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JR
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP/CLR
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