312
FXUS62 KKEY 121753
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1253 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH LIGHT BREEZES AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES, WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
- WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY, PEAKING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
- A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, SUPPORTING INCREASED MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR BOTH MTH AND EYW FOR
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NORTHWESTERLIES TO NORTHERLIES BY SUNRISE.
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN PATCHY, THIN LAYERS OF MIST WILL BE A
CONCERN IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT NOT AT SUFFICIENT
MAGNITUDE TO DECREASE INTO MVFR CRITERIA. EYW IS MORE LIKELY TO
OBSERVE REDUCED VIS THAN MTH.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST THU FEB 12 4006
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GLOBAL NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION (NWP) MEAN AND MEMBER FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES
THE GULF COAST. AS THE LOW INTERACTS WITH A CONTINENTAL AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THE
VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS, WITH POSSIBLE BREEZY CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
NWP RUNS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST
TWENTY-FOUR HOURS REGARDING THE FATE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
SUPPORTING A MORE DIFFUSE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST.
WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL LIKELY BE IN A REGION
OF DECENT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. COUPLED WITH SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING,
LITTLE INHIBITION, AND AT LEAST MODERATE CAPE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SURVIVE THE TREK AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTACHED TO THE LOW. WE CONSIDERED ADDING
POSSIBLE THUNDER FOR THIS TIME FRAME, BUT WE WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW, GIVEN THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOMEWHAT LESS
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CHANGE LITTLE OWED TO THE LACK
OF A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE FLORIDA KEYS LOOK TO RETURN TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST THU FEB 12 4006
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. A NEBULOUS PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT AND AT TIMES
VARIABLES WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY MARINE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAVORED COOLEST
OCEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. HIGH PRESSURE DIVING
OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE ARK- LA- TEX REGION BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT, SUPPORTING FRESHENING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
KEYS MARINE ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH GENTLE WINDS
CLOCKING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1973, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 51F WAS
RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 77 62 76 62 / 0 10 10 0
MARATHON 76 63 75 63 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page