801
FXUS62 KKEY 110832
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
432 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT, AND PARTICULARLY
LOW LYING AREAS WILL SEE SOME SALTWATER PONDING AROUND THE TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE.
- MAINLY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TODAY CONTINUING
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY MID-WEEK.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRESS THROUGH THE KEYS SOMETIME
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A DROP IN DEW POINTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS A MEAN LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA. IN ADDITION, A NARROW
TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS WHICH HELPED TO PICK UP ISAIAS AND TURN IT POST-TROPICAL.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS REMAINS OVER TENNESSEE EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, THE KEYS REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. MARINE PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE RECORDING MAINLY SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS. KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN ACTIVE ALL NIGHT. INITIALLY, A CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
JUST OUTSIDE THE WESTERN FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH
ANOTHER AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE AREA
JUST OUTSIDE THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE WEST WAS BY FAR THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY. OVER THE PAST HOUR, ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS AND SURROUNDING NEARSHORE WATERS.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE STILL VERY WARM FOR THIS
TIME OF THE NIGHT IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS ARE NEAR 80
DEGREES.
FORECAST
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND INCLUDING THE HOLIDAY ITSELF. THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE IN THE DISCUSSION SECTION ABOVE WILL HELP TO KEEP BREEZES
ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE, EXPECT MAINLY SOUTHEAST
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE BACKING TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO
FILTER INTO THE AREA LEADING TO DECREASED RAIN CHANCES. EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS TO REMAIN QUITE WARM IN THE UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS POTENTIALLY HOVERING NEAR 80
DEGREES. ALSO, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE BACK IN THE EQUATION
BETWEEN 105 TO 107 DEGREES. MAKE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE
BREAKS WHEN WORKING OR DOING STRENUOUS ACTIVITY OUTDOOR. VERY
WARM AND TROPICAL CONSIDERING WE ARE APPROACHING MID-OCTOBER.
NUMERICAL AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FRONT
PRESSING THROUGH THE KEYS SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A DIP IN DEW POINTS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. DEW POINTS
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO THE LOWER 70S, OR 70 DEGREES? THIS WILL FEEL
MUCH BETTER COMPARED TO DEW POINTS CURRENTLY NEAR 80 DEGREES THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL PRESS THROUGH WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO
RESULT IN BELOW AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES FOR A FEW FORECAST PERIODS
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A
RETURN TO MUGGIER AND POTENTIALLY WETTER CONDITIONS.
SUBTLE HINT HERE BUT LATEST GLOBAL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE DETAILS REMAIN QUITE FUZZY AT THIS JUNCTURE.
WE WILL KEEP FINE TUNING THE FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE
OF LESS CLEARANCE UNDER FIXED BRIDGES AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AS
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM
SYNOPSIS, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST COMBINED
WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE PEAKING AND
LULLING BREEZES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. IN ADDITION, BREEZES WILL
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
STRENGTHENS. AS THE HIGH BUILDS, A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. PROMOTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR
MOVING IN TODAY WILL ALSO LEAD TO DECREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PERSIST AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THE EAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH MTH BETWEEN
11/09-12Z AND THEN EYW BETWEEN 11/12-15Z. ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE CAPABLE OF REDUCING CIGS AND VIS BRIEFLY, PRODUCT GUSTY
WINDS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE. MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FOR THE DAYTIME REDUCING RAIN CHANCES.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1909, THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 8.94" WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE MOVED RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE KEYS. IT CAUSED NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS IN
DAMAGE IN KEY WEST, DROWNED 12 RAILROAD WORKERS, AND DESTROYED
ABOUT 400 BUILDINGS. SAND KEY RECORDED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF
28.37" WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 100 MPH BEFORE BEING SWEPT OUT TO
SEA. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 83 90 80 / 20 10 20 30
MARATHON 90 83 90 80 / 20 10 20 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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