340
FXUS62 KKEY 151746
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1246 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BLAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA
KEYS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
-ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
-IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, EXPECT CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BLAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS
TERMINALS, BOUTS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 20Z,
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND EVEN BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. AS
THE MAIN FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL CLOCK
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH, FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30
KNOTS, POSING A SIGNIFICANT CROSSWIND CHALLENGE TO THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN AFTER AROUND 03Z, BUT GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1057 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS MARINE ZONES TODAY. BREEZES WILL BECOME
STRONG, WITH FREQUENT NEAR GALE GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT, SUPPORTING RAPIDLY
SLACKENING BREEZES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY CLOCKING AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOW A DEEP MEAN LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM PENNSYLVANIA SOUTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE GULF AND INTO
MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS THE MAIN CHARACTER IN THIS STORY FOR TODAY.
MARINE PLATFORMS WERE MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT, HOWEVER, IN THE PAST HOUR THE BREEZES HAVE BEEN
INCREASING. MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE NOW OBSERVING SOUTHWEST TO
WEST BREEZES OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. GOES 19 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
(TPW) PRODUCTS SHOW ESTIMATED PWAT VALUES OF 1.3 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE KEYS TO 1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO ANDROS ISLAND. KBYX RADAR HAS REMAINED ACTIVE ALL NIGHT
AS A RESULT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CHAIN. HOWEVER, IN THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
KEYS BRINGING SOME QUICK LIGHT SHOWERS. MRMS DATA ESTIMATES
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE LAST 3
HOURS. GOES 19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS MOST OF THE CLOUD
COVER CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH LARGELY
CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS FOR THE WESTERN AREAS. THE CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT STILL REMAINS OUTSIDE THE KEYS GULF
WATERS FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN
VARY FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
MID 60S.
FORECAST
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN THEME FOR TODAY.
THE STRONG FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD
SWINGING THROUGH THE KEYS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BREEZES WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY TODAY WITH NEAR 30
KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND 25 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH, POTENTIALLY 45 MPH ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL MOST LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWERS.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE KEYS THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE, POPS WERE FURTHER INCREASED TODAY TO 70%. ALL THE
INGREDIENTS ARE LINED UP TODAY TO SUPPORT DECENT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WE HAVE
THE INSTABILITY, THE COLD FRONT, SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND
MOISTURE. THEREFORE, EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING AS IT APPROACHES. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING
FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE FROM 15/13-14Z
THROUGH 15/18-19Z. BREEZES WILL INITIALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TO WEST THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND PEAKING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BREEZES THEN GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT
AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO NIL RAIN CHANCES FOR
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO
TUMBLE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER TO MID 50S
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
FRIDAY ONLY MANAGING TO REACH THE MID 60S.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF LEADING TO RAPIDLY SLACKENING BREEZES AS THE
GRADIENT COLLAPSES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE OUT INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SHIFT BREEZES TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST. THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR FRIDAY, THOUGH SLIGHTLY INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED
TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS A RESULT.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR ANOTHER FRONT TO PRESS
THROUGH THE KEYS SOMETIME SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, AND A
DIP IN HUMIDITY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, A RATHER LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE BREEZES ELEVATED FOR A FEW
DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SCARCE WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY, IF ANY, REMAINING ACROSS THE STRAITS. IT IS NOT
UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE MOISTURE MIGHT BE ABLE TO
CREEP JUST FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT THE ISLAND CHAIN.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL ALSO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEK.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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