133
FXUS62 KKEY 170239
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
939 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- GENERALLY EAST LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
WORK WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS MID WEEK.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 945 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
FLORIDA KEYS LOCALS MAY HAVE NOTICED A SHIFT IN WINDS EARLIER
TODAY. A GUSTY MORNING GAVE WAY TO WEAKER WESTERLIES, WHICH IN
TURN VEERED TO GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLIES. THESE FEATURES ARE
EMBLEMATIC OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH PASSED ACROSS THE KEYS TODAY. IN
CONTRAST TO THE PRIOR COUPLE OF FRONTS, THIS FRONT IS RATHER
SLIGHT. GUSTS AT SAND KEY EARLY THIS MORNING PEAKED AT 22 KNOTS.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WAS NOT AS DRY OR COLD COMPARED TO
EARLY FEBRUARY. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING SAMPLED AN ENVIRONMENTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VERY CLOSE TO THE 50TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF 1.07
INCHES. HOWEVER, THAT DOES NOT HIGHLIGHT THE ENTIRE WEATHER
PATTERN. WHILE THE LOWER LEVELS RETAINED A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE, THE CAPPING INVERSION AT 8.5 TO 10 KFT LIES BELOW A VERY
DEEP, VERY PRONOUNCED DRY AIR MASS. CIMSS MIMIC PWAT RETURNS JUST
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ESTIMATED PWAT VALUES CLOSER TO 0.6 TO
0.7 INCHES. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE DRY, PEOPLE ON THE
GROUND WILL MIGHT NOT NOTICE THE CHANGE. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT, AND DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
THE MID 60S. WHILE MOST COLD FRONTS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP
TEMPERATURES BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, LOWS ACROSS THE
KEYS MAY NOT REACH THESE TEMPERATURES. THOSE WHO ENJOY TEMPERATE
CONDITIONS, REJOICE!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 945 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
FROM SYNOPSIS, NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES
WILL CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETS UP OVER THE CAROLINAS. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE THIS HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 945 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH. WHILE PATCHES OF
CLOUDS WITH BASES OF FL008 TO FL015 ARE POSSIBLE AROUND MIDNIGHT
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS IS VERY LOW. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH BY
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL VEER NORTHEASTERLY BEFORE SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 63 78 68 79 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 65 79 69 82 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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