267
FXUS62 KKEY 150254
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1054 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS. MINOR
SALTWATER FLOODING LOW ELEVATION AREAS IS LIKELY, AND BOATERS
CAN EXPECT LESS CLEARANCE UNDER FIXED BRIDGES.
- HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK, AS INDICES WILL APPROACH THE MID TO UPPER 100S DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.
- A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL LINGER ACROSS THE KEYS THIS WEEK,
KEEPING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHT AT BEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1039 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED A MODIFIED SAHARAN AIR
LAYER DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. FEATURES INCLUDED A BIT OF
SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION, AS WELL AS SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE
950-600 MB ISOBARIC LAYER, TOPPED BY A MOIST LAYER BETWEEN 15-20
KFT. LOCAL DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY IS DETECTING A RESIDUAL CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO EASTERN GULF WATERS OFF
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY, THERE ARE VERY
LITTLE METEOROLOGICAL ECHO RETURNS AT THIS LATE EVENING HOUR
ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM, WITH LAND-BASED
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN.
FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THE EARLIER SOUTH FLORIDA CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED, AND THERE
IS LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THAT WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
THESE OUTFLOWS, ALONG WITH A MESO HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
MAINLAND, WILL SUPPORT WINDS GRADUALLY BRIEFLY CLOCKING AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND FRESHENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STEADY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
FLIRTING WITH RECORD WARM MINIMUMS YET AGAIN. A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST REMAINS PRUDENT, WITH NO CHANGES PROPOSED TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1039 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A COAST FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS.
MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF LESS CLEARANCE UNDER FIXED BRIDGES
DURING TIMES OF HIGHER TIDES, WHICH WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. FROM SYNOPSIS, ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL SUPPORT SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK FOR THE KEYS
COASTAL WATERS. BREEZES WILL TEND TO PEAK IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BEFORE MODESTLY LULLING IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON PERIODS. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS MARINE ZONES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, ACTING TO LIMIT RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. NEAR-SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT AT NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL VEER BACK TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 84 90 84 / 0 0 10 10
MARATHON 90 84 90 84 / 0 0 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW/DM
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