162
FXUS62 KKEY 231755
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR AN ISLAND CLOUD LINE
AND ASSOCIATED WATERSPOUTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
- HIGHS NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SUGGEST
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK AT 105 TO 108 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH,
THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN
ADDITION, AN ISLAND CLOUD LINE MAY CONTINUE TO WAX AND WANE
THROUGH THIS EVENING, SUPPORTING THE RISK FOR VICINITY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MENTION OF VCSH IS NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE TAF FOR
NOW, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD LINE PROXIMITY TO THE TERMINALS,
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
MOSTLY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE KEYS. HOWEVER, JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK RIDGING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE WITH MAINLY SOUTHEAST BREEZES OCCASIONALLY BECOMING
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUILDS A LITTLE FURTHER WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
LEADING TO AN INCREASING INFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN
FRESHENING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES. SINCE THE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO MAINLY BE LIGHT TODAY, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK CLOUD
LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE THE DRY
AIR THAT IS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE, THE WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE BE THE MAIN STORY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WON'T PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S WHILE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
TUESDAY WITH THIS CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. A MORE TYPICAL
PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS EXPECTED TO ENSUE WITH MORE
FREQUENT AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL KEEP ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY ACROSS
THE KEYS LEADING TO MOISTURE UNDULATIONS AS WELL AS PEAKING AND
LULLING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES. BREEZES WILL PEAK OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING BEFORE LULLING DURING THE AFTERNOONS. DAYTIME
HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, THOUGH, OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP SOME DUE TO THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
LOWER 80S.
TROPICS: THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) CONTINUES TO MONITOR
3 AREAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS
CURRENTLY POSING A THREAT TO THE KEYS. THE AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS A LOW OR NEAR 0 PERCENT CHANCE OF FORMATION
OVER 48 HOURS WITH A MEDIUM OR 50% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINE
FORMATION, MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS.
ANY CLOUD LINE MAY PRODUCE A FEW WATERSPOUTS. MARINERS ARE
REMINDED THAT A WATERSPOUT WOULD MOST LIKELY APPEAR BENEATH A
DARK, FLAT BOTTOM OF A BUILDING CUMULUS LINE, JUST AT THE HINT OF
RAIN.
FROM SYNOPSIS, A SPLIT RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING
VARIABLE AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE NORTH ATLANTIC
RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD, EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, BECOMING GENTLE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 84 91 84 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 91 83 91 82 / 10 10 10 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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