173
FXUS62 KKEY 030203
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1003 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
- CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINE FORMATION
NEAR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ON FRIDAY. ANY DEVELOPING
CLOUD LINE WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS.
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS (20-30%),
WITH SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
UNDER A NEBULOUS PRESSURE REGIME, A BROKEN ISLAND CLOUD LINE
FORMED IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE KEYS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAYS, RATHER THAN CONGEALING
INTO A WELL-DEFINED ENTITY, THIS CLOUD LINE REMAINED BROKEN
THROUGHOUT ITS LIFETIME. THE BROKEN NATURE SEEMED TO SUPPORT
CONTINUOUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE CLOUD LINE FEATURE
REMAINING PRESENT WELL INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN VARIED SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH MRMS
RADAR ESTIMATED TOTALS RANGING FROM NEAR ZERO, MAINLY IN THE UPPER
KEYS, TO ISOLATED BULLSEYES OVER 0.5" IN SELECT ISLAND
COMMUNITIES IN THE LOWER KEYS, AND WELL OVER 1.0" IN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. THE CLOUD LINE HAS FINALLY FIZZLED, LEAVING THE ISLAND
CHAIN UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, AND TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 80S.
THE FIRST EARLY SIGNS OF A MORE WELL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN ARE
EVIDENT IN RECENT DOPPLER RADAR ACTIVITY, WITH CONFLUENT-DRIVEN
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING OFF ANDROS ISLAND TOWARDS THE
EASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA. COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
LURKING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA, ALONG WITH AN UNINHIBITED
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SAMPLED IN THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING AT KEY,
THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE INHERITED SLIGHT RAIN
AND THUNDER CHANCES OVERNIGHT, WITH MOST LIKELY COVERAGE IN THE
GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AS WELL AS IN THE EASTERN
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. NO CHANGES PROPOSED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANY ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE MARINE ZONES WILL LARGELY BE LIMITED
TO POSSIBLE AFTERNOON NEARSHORE CLOUDLINES INTERACTING WITH ANY
BOUNDARIES PUSHING OFF THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT
GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES RESUMING
ACROSS THE KEYS MARINE ZONES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS. WITH THAT
SAID, NUMEROUS RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES LURKING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, MAINLY IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOWARD SUNRISE.
YET ANOTHER AFTERNOON ISLAND CLOUD LINE MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW, SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE ISOLATED NATURE
TO ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 83 91 83 / 20 20 10 30
MARATHON 89 83 90 83 / 20 20 20 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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