396
FXUS62 KKEY 270408
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1108 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-WINDS HAVE CLOCKED NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND FRESHENED CONSIDERABLY
FOLLOWING A LATE AFTERNOON COLD FRONT. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR KEYS COASTAL WATERS NOT IN LEE OF MAINLAND FLORIDA,
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EVERYWHERE ELSE.
-THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH ONE, POSSIBLY TWO,
REINFORCING FRONT(S), HAVE A GOOD POTENTIAL OF KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DURATION OF THE WEEK.
-THE REINFORCING FRONTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL PERIODIC AND
SIGNIFICANT WIND SURGES THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE DESCENDED UPON THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A LATE
AFTERNOON COLD FRONT BLASTED THROUGH OUR WATERS. A BLANKET OF LOW
LEVEL STRATUS RUSHED OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN FOLLOWING A THIN LINE
OF DETERIORATING PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS. OVERCAST SKIES PREVAILED FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENING, YET GOES-19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
NOW SHOWS GAPS IN THIS CLOUD COVER. WINDS HAVE RAMPED QUITE A BIT
AND EVEN EXCEEDED ORIGINAL EXPECTATIONS WITH NEAR GALE SUSTAINED
WINDS ALONG MOST OF OUR OBSERVATIONS ON THE REEF. SO MUCH SO THAT
A GALE WARNING WAS INCLUDED WITH THE EVENING UPDATE PACKAGE FOR
OUR WATERS NOT IN LEE OF MAINLAND FLORIDA. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALSO SEEN A DRAMATIC CHANGE WITH VALUES ALREADY IN THE MID
60S. DEW POINTS ARE EVEN LOWER IN THE UPPER 50S CREATING A MUCH
DIFFERENT SENSIBLE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
THIS EVENING'S 00Z KKEY SOUNDING CAPTURED ESSENTIALLY THE MIDDLE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXTREMELY MOIST BUT LOW INSTABILITY LOWER
TO MID LEVELS WITH DRY AIR STARTING AT 500 MB. WHILE A GOOD
EXPLANATION OF THE TRACES OF RAINFALL DOTTED ACROSS THE KEYS
EARLIER THIS EVENING, CIMSS MIMIC PW NOTES A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
RUSHING INTO OUR CWA. THIS IS DUE TO THE STRONG TO NEAR GALE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS PROMOTED BY THE BACK HALF OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY LETTING UP IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW AS BREEZES VEER TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES BEFORE SUNRISE ARE FORECAST TO HIT THE UPPER 50S WITH
TOMORROWS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S KICKING OFF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A
COOL LATE WINTER WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SE GULF, BAYSIDE/GULFSIDE
WATERS, AND THE HAWK CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WEST OF CRAIG
KEY. ALL OTHER ZONES ARE UNDER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. FROM
SYNOPSIS, WINDS HAVE FRESHENED SUBSTANTIALLY FOLLOWING THIS
EVENING'S FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE KEYS MARINE ZONES, CLOCKING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND BECOMING STRONG TO NEAR GALE,
GUSTING UP TO NEAR 35 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY ON
TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ADDITIONAL WIND SURGES
ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ROLLS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE AT BOTH EYW AND MTH OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING THIS EVENING'S FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL FOLLOW STARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING, CROSSWIND CONCERNS OF
NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE LATE
MORNING HOURS WHEN BREEZES FINALLY DECLINE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 58 68 58 67 / 10 0 0 10
MARATHON 57 68 57 66 / 10 0 0 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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