499
FXUS62 KKEY 301446
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1046 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
- DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB NOTICEABLY INTO THE MID 70S BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
- LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, WITH A BRIEF GENTLE TO MODERATE PICKUP HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A WETTER
PATTERN IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY BEGINNING SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 959 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
THE 12Z SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED A DIRECTIONALLY-VEERED BOUNDARY
LAYER PROFILE, BUT WITH LIGHT MEAN WIND SPEEDS. THIS IS OWED TO
THE FLORIDA KEYS BEING IN A COL REGION BETWEEN A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS, ALONG WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT STRETCH FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD O
THE SOUTHEAST. THE SOUNDING ALSO SAMPLED A WELL MIXED LAYER FROM
THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 920 MB, WITH A MUCH MORE STABLE THERMAL
PROFILE ABOVE. WITH LIMITED FORCING AND THE NEBULOUS FLOW, ANY
ISOLATED CONVECTION WOULD BE ORIGINATING FROM MESOSCALE ISLAND
CLOUD LINE FORMATION. GIVEN THE WELL-MIXED LAYER AND LIMITED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE, THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY TODAY. CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE A NIL RAIN FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 959 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETREAT INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON, AS A WEAK LOW PUSHES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLIES
BECOMING VARIABLE. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, LIKELY SUPPORTING A SHORT PERIOD
OF GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES. WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN
AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLATTENS. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF COUPLED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ELEVATED RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 959 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH NIL RAIN CHANCES. LIGHT NEAR SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, BECOMING VARIABLE AT
TIMES.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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