263
FXUS62 KKEY 210226
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
926 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN-FREE AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT
TIMES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
PRESS THROUGH THE KEYS SUNDAY NIGHT, AND WILL LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES, A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN HUMIDITY, AND A PERIOD OF
WINDY CONDITIONS.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 847 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
IT HAS BEEN A CALM AND WARM EVENING ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS AS DEEP
RIDGING HAS CONTINUED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRELIMINARY
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AT KEY WEST AND MARATHON INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORTS WERE 81F AND 79F RESPECTIVELY, SIGNALING A WARMER THAN
AVERAGE DAY. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS REFLECT SOME "COOLING" HAS
OCCURRED AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S, AND DEW
POINTS ARE COMFORTABLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. OUR KBYX RADAR
HAS BEEN FREE OF ANY METEOROLOGICAL RETURNS, THOUGH WE HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO SPOT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS JUST
EAST OF THE UPPER KEYS. GOES-19 CLOUD TOP SHOWS SOME HIGH,
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH, SO WE
MAY LOSE OUR TRULY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
LACK OF CLOUD COVER CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE DEEP, SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT. THE PWAT ON OUR 00Z KKEY SOUNDING WAS
CALCULATED TO BE 0.85", JUST 0.02" ABOVE THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS DAY. EVEN THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE DIDN'T HAVE MUCH TO SHOW
US AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WERE OBSERVED THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
14K FEET. WITH SUCH A BENIGN PATTERN IN PLACE, NO CHANGES ARE
PROPOSED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 847 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC WILL MEANDER IN
PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WILL STRETCH
WEST THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE KEYS REMAIN IN REGION OF
NEBULOUS PRESSURE GRADIENT. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A
STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING, WITH STRONG, POTENTIALLY NEAR GALE,
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES ANTICIPATED IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SLACKEN AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN EVENTUALLY TO THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 847 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KNOTS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 73 82 70 82 / 0 0 0 10
MARATHON 73 82 70 82 / 0 0 0 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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