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FXUS62 KKEY 081421
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1021 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- RAIN CHANCES MAY TREND UPWARD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
GOES-19 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS EXPANSIVE UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYLONIC RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF EASTWARD TO THE
BAHAMAS. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SEPARATES A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
CELL CENTERED WEST OF THE AZORES FROM A CONTINENTAL HIGH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THE NET SUM OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES IS LIGHT TO GENTLE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE 12Z MORNING
SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED A MODESTLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL PROFILE,
COUPLED WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE, AND MINIMAL
INHIBITION. HOWEVER, LOW- AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR MEAGER
AT BEST, INCLUDING A NUMBER OF ISOTHERMAL TO THERMAL INVERSIONS.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL ISLAND CLOUD LINE FORMATION
THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH FLOW MAY BE A BIT TOO SOUTHERLY TO
CONGLOMERATE ISLAND STREAMERS INTO ANYTHING THAT PRODUCES SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS. NO CHANGE PROPOSED TO THE INHERITED
SLIGHT RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE FIRST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF BERMUDA WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MID- WEEK. A SECOND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BY MID- WEEK, MAINTAINING LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES. RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE AT
NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS EARLY IN THE WEEK, WITH A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE BEYOND TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) I
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THAT SAID, PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY AROUND THE DIURNALLY FAVORED
OVERNIGHT PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LACK OF COVERAGE
WARRANTS LEAVING MENTION OF VCSH OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 81 89 80 / 10 20 30 40
MARATHON 88 81 88 81 / 10 20 30 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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