575
FXUS62 KKEY 200211
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1011 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LEAD
TO A GENERALLY MODERATE RISK OF HEAT ILLNESS WITH PERIODS OF
HIGH RISK CONDITIONS.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE STARTING TOMORROW.
- BREEZES ON TRACK TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND MUGGY.
DEW POINTS ARE LINGERING IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 80S. KBYX RADAR
OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING ARE TRACKING SHALLOW, FAST MOVING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. GOES EAST SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOST OF THE CLOUDS TONIGHT ARE HIGH ALTITUDE
CIRRUS CLOUDS GENERATED BY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR TAMPA. THAT
OBSERVATION IS FURTHER CORROBORATED BY THE 00Z KKEY RADIOSONDE.
THE BALLOON HIGHLIGHTED A HIGHER MOISTURE CONCENTRATION NEAR
35,000 FEET AMIDST 50 KNOT WINDS. THE REST OF THE SOUNDING WAS NOT
AS INTERESTING. WINDS WERE NEARLY UNIFORM FROM THE SURFACE TO
ABOUT 10,000 FEET. SAMPLED PWAT ALSO ROSE ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE VALUE FOR THE DAY. OVERALL, THE WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT
DOES NOT SUGGEST MANY NECESSARY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
THERE IS AN INTERESTING FEATURE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS, A MID-
LATITUDE CUTOFF LOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS
CIRCULATING AROUND THIS FEATURE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RIVER OF
CIRRUS ALOFT. ON SATELLITE, THE CIRRUS GIVES THE APPEARANCE OF A
MOIST UPPER ATMOSPHERE, BUT THE KKEY SOUNDING SUGGESTS OTHERWISE.
DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO STREAM TOWARDS THE KEYS, AS SEEN IN THE
500-250 MB LAYER. THESE FEATURES ARE LIKELY WHY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION, THE CUTOFF
LOW IS PLAYING A ROLE IN MITIGATING THE RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. BREEZES SLACKENED EARLIER THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WEAKENED. ON THE PLUS SIDE,
WINDS ARE ONCE AGAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
THRESHOLDS. ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE, SLACKENING BREEZES MEAN LESS
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. THE MESSAGE TO TAKE HERE IS TO
BRACE FOR SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GENTLE
TO MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. BREEZES ARE
ON TRACK TO SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE WEEK WITH PEAKS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENINGS AND LULLS DURING THE DAY. RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING
PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE ON TRACK TO SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER
SUNRISE WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE GUSTS WILL DROP OUT LATE. SHALLOW
SHOWERS ARE STILL ABLE TO FORM NEAR THE TERMINALS, BUT MODELS DO
NOT SUGGEST ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE VCSH IN THE TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 90 81 91 / 30 30 30 20
MARATHON 79 86 80 87 / 40 30 30 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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