723
FXUS62 KKEY 240844
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
444 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
- HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 105 TO 110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON FOR
SOME FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER
KEYS.
- A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SIT ALONG THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEAST U.S., WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
AFTER AN ACTIVE EARLY OVERNIGHT, WE ENTERED A BRIEF LULL, BUT NOW
THE ATMOSPHERE IS COMING BACK TO LIFE THIS HOUR. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND MAINLY WATERS
SOUTH OF THE KEYS. THIS IS ALL DUE TO A BROAD EASTERLY WAVE THAT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY PUSHING WESTWARD THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE AXIS OF
THIS WAVE STILL LIES TO OUR EAST, JUST OUTSIDE OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY, BUT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE ON
THE WINDWARD, THAT IS THE LEFT SIDE, OF THE WAVE AND WILL OCCUR
MAINLY THIS MORNING.
AS THE WAVE EXITS TO THE WEST LATER TODAY, WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE. AT THE SAME TIME, WINDS WILL ALSO BE
GRADUALLY DECREASING. BY SATURDAY, THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE LEFT
IN BETWEEN FEATURES AND A COL REGION WILL SET UP BRIEFLY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THEREAFTER, A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND SETTLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS TROUGH WILL WOBBLE IN PLACE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, RESULTING IN WINDS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
WEST TO NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST TO WEST.
THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO CONTAIN A FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS AND WE COULD
BE LOOKING AT A SEMI-ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION, GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS, IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE TROUGH COULD ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES AT REVERSE CLOUD LINES
FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WORTH KEEPING A
CLOSE EYE ON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ONGOING THIS MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AS AN EASTERLY
WAVE MARCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE WAVE EXITS TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON, EXPECT COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THEREAFTER, WE
WILL BE BETWEEN FEATURES, RESULTING IN A COL DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BRIEFLY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY A TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP AND SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF GENTLE TO AT
TIMES MODERATE NORTHWEST BREEZES INITIALLY. AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
TO THE EAST, EXPECT BREEZES TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. IN
ADDITION, THIS TROUGH COULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACTIVE, WET
WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL SUPPORT VCSH AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PREVAILING
SHRA OR TSRA IN THE TAF OUTSIDE OF A PROB30 MENTION FOR TSRA FROM
15-19Z WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING THEREAFTER. WILL AMEND IF
NEEDED. EXPECT EASTERLY SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
NEARBY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 83 90 82 / 60 20 10 20
MARATHON 90 83 90 83 / 50 30 10 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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