071
FXUS62 KKEY 140830
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
430 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT. LOW LYING AREAS
WILL SEE MINOR SALTWATER PONDING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
LOW. REGARDLESS, ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
EXTENDING INTO THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KEYS ALONG WITH THE RIDGE
TO ITS NORTH. MARINE PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
RECORDING NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS A RESULT.
GOES 19 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) SHOWS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
GRADIENT TO THE ESTIMATED PWATS ACROSS THE KEYS. NORTH OF THE
CHAIN IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES WHEREAS SOUTH OF THE
CHAIN ACROSS THE STRAITS IS 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES IN SOME CASES
APPROACHING 2 INCHES. KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN ACTIVE ALL NIGHT AS A
RESULT WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS BEING CONFINED TO THE
STRAITS AS WELL AS THE GULF WATERS SURROUNDING AND INCLUDING THE
DRY TORTUGAS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER
80S AND DEW POINTS ARE MORE COMFORTABLE THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT ABOVE IN THE DISCUSSION SECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE KEYS TODAY. BY
TONIGHT, THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO START LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT BRINGING INCREASING DEW POINTS AND MOISTURE. BREEZES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LOWER PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE KEYS KEEPS A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT 40% FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EXTENDING EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. IN ADDITION, THE WEAK FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PROMOTE GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THIS WEAK AND DIFFUSE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA. LATE
WEEK, CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING FOR A RATHER STRONG COLD
FRONT DRIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF AND TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL, THIS FRONT, IF IT REACHES
THE KEYS, WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRINGING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
AS WELL AS A POTENTIALLY RATHER WET PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BOTH EYW AND
MTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THERE IS EVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY FOR VIS TO
BE REDUCED AS WELL TO MVFR, POTENTIALLY EVEN IFR. THERE REMAINS
THE RISK FOR PASSING DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE TIME AS OF NOW BEING DURING THE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2014, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 83F
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872. ALSO, ON THIS DAY IN 2018, THE DAILY RECORD WARM
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 82F WAS RECORDED IN MARATHON. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1951.
OF NOTE
IN 1964, CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ISBELL MOVED NORTHEAST OFF OF THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA, PASSING JUST WEST OF THE MARQUESAS KEYS AND
NORTHWEST OF THE KEYS. IN KEY WEST, THE MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS
29.49" AND THE PEAK WIND WAS 73 MPH WITH A 4-5' TIDE AND $1.42
MILLION (2018 USD) IN DAMAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 81 89 82 / 40 50 40 40
MARATHON 88 81 89 82 / 40 40 40 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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