173
FXUS62 KKEY 261436
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1036 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IN THE UPPER KEYS AND MINOR TO MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE KEYS CONTINUES,
ESPECIALLY AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
- A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- FAST-MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER VIRGINIA, WITH A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
NORTH OF THE DAKOTAS IN SOUTHERN CANADA. MEANWHILE, FURTHER TO THE
EAST, A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND TO THE EAST. LOCAL AVAILABLE DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE STRONG TO NEAR GALE
NORTHEASTERLIES, WITH ACTIVITY LARGELY CONFINED TO THE UPPER KEYS
AND THE ADJACENT MARINE ZONES AT THIS LATE MORNING HOUR. LAND-
BASED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SAMPLING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80F, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE WESTWARD
PROGRESSION OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT WE FULLY EXPECT GREATEST
COVERAGE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES SURROUNDING THE UPPER
KEYS IN THE BEST ZONE OF FORCED ASCENT. DUE TO THE SHALLOW AND
FAST- MOVING NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY, QPF SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT,
EVEN IN AREAS OF HIGHEST OVERALL COVERAGE. THE CURRENT LULL IN
WIND SPEEDS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FLORIDA
BAY, IS DUE TO HEATING OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND, WHERE THERE
ARE CURRENTLY SOME PRETTY NOTICEABLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER, THE LULL SHOULD BE QUITE SHORT- LIVED AS WE WORK INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHER THAN TO ACCOUNT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS LULL EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, NO CHANGES
PROPOSED TO THE INHERITED SHOTER-TERM FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FROM SYNOPSIS, SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE REINFORCED BY A
SECONDARY HIGH NORTH OF THE DAKOTAS. AS THESE FEATURES INTERACT
WITH A PERSISTENT LOW SOUTH OF THE BAHAMAS, THIS WILL SUSTAIN
FREQUENT NEAR GALE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, EXTREME EASTERN HAWK
CHANNEL, AND THE SE GULF WATERS. IN ADDITION, PULSES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SHOWER CHANCES, MAINLY IN THE
EASTERN MARINE ZONES. THE SECONDARY HIGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE
CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK, SUPPORTING SLACKENING BREEZES. HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
STAY ELEVATED THROUGH MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES,
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY NEAR MTH. ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN WATERS WILL SLOWLY
TRY TO CLIP THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WHEN A WINDOW OF VCSH IS
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. IMPACTS TO VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW.
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO NEAR 25 KNOTS THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY STRONGER SHOWER POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 76 84 76 / 20 10 30 30
MARATHON 82 76 84 76 / 20 20 30 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ076.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ077-078.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-
052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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