380
FXUS62 KKEY 120337
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1037 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL ENTER A QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
-A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF
BOUT OF BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR A SECONDARY, POTENTIALLY
STRONG FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
WINDS THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN LIGHT TO GENTLE THROUGH THE EVENING
DUE TO A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA THAT HAS ALSO
BEEN PERTURBED BY DAY TIME HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE THIS
EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED WE REMAIN CAPPED, THE CAP IS UP ABOVE
800 MB. THIS ALONG WITH WHAT BEST CAN BE DESCRIBED AS SOUTH
FLORIDA SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN
EARLIER THIS EVENING, BUT HAS SINCE ALMOST ENTIRELY DISSIPATED.
SHOWERS DO REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG THE FLORIDA
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. MILD CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE KEYS
LATE OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT IS BEING DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY A ROBUST
HIGH SLIDING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. EXPECT WINDS TO SHARPEN MARKEDLY LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT IN
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL ONLY PRODUCE A
TINY AMOUNT OF COOLING AND DRYING AS THE RESPONSIBLE HIGH WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST SOUTHEASTWARD. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL QUICKLY
VEER NORTHEASTERLY AND SLACKEN TOMORROW. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
POSSIBLY VISIT THE UPPER 60S WITH DEW POINTS SLIPPING INTO THE MID
60S. RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE. THE UPPER KEYS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED DUE TO A CONFLUENCE ZONE
SETTING UP ALONG THE GULF STREAM BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE BROADLY NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL FRESHEN LATE
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH KEYS WATERS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL KEYS WATERS. THIS
WIND SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS A RIDGE AXIS
PRESSES QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
STATES TIPPING SLACKENING BREEZES NORTHEASTERLY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER FLORIDA BAY ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY
STAY JUST EAST OF THE MTH VICINITY LATE THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS
FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE MAIN ISSUE INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE CURRENT 4 TO 7 KNOTS TO 10 TO 13 KNOTS
AND FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN
THE 14/11-12Z TIME FRAME. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO ACCOMPANYING AND
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE IN SHOWERS MAY BE EAST ENOUGH OF THE TWO
KEYS TERMINALS TO KEEP VICINITY SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW,
HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE, 40 TO 55 PERCENT, OF MVFR CEILINGS FOR
A FEW HOURS MONDAY MORNING AT EYW AROUND AND AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JR
DATA ACQUISITION.....11
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