404
FXUS62 KKEY 201334
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
934 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS.
- WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN THEREAFTER THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
- BREEZES WILL ONCE AGAIN FRESHEN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE
KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED A WELL-MIXED LAYER FROM
THE SURFACE UP TO 950 MB, WITH A GENERALLY STABLE LAYER ABOVE,
AND A STRONG CAP OF COPIOUS DRY AIR ABOVE 775 MB. THE SOUNDING
ALSO SAMPLED A LOW-LEVEL VEERING PROFILE. COUPLED WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE STRAITS, KBYX
AND KAMX AVAILABLE DOPPLER RADARS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER KEYS AS WELL
AS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE OF THE KEYS.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED
BETWEEN A CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA, AND A NOR'EASTER A CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED WINDY CONDITIONS. WHILE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY,
MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES WILL REMAIN DRY. THE INHERITED 10% POP
SEEMS ON TRACK, MOST LIKELY VERIFYING BETWEEN KEY LARGO AND OCEAN
REEF. NO CHANGES PROPOSED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS
MARINE ZONES. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN AND SEAS SUBSIDE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE BREEZES ONCE AGAIN FRESHEN
BY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THAT TIME FRAME, WITH
NEAR-GALE WINDS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
ALTHOUGH A PASSING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
FAVORED OVERNIGHT PERIOD, IMPACTS TO CEILINGS AND VISBILITIES FROM
ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL. NEAR-SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 86 77 84 76 / 0 10 0 10
MARATHON 86 76 84 75 / 10 0 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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