955
FXUS62 KKEY 041809
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
209 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A MOISTURE SURGE WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES
THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS. IF
ON A BOAT, STAY LOW, OR GO BELOW.
- HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH THE MID 100S DAILY, WITH LITTLE
RELIEF IN THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. KNOW THE SIGNS OF
HEAT STRESS, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, AND STAY HYDRATED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND TERMINALS
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF EACH TERMINAL AT
TIMES. THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY MAYBE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS,
THEN AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW
AT THIS TIME. HAVE INCLUDED A GENERAL MENTION OF VCSH FOR NOW,
AND THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
CIMSS SATELLITE-DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS
HIGHLIGHTS THE EASTERN, MOIST SIDE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT
KEY SAMPLED AN UNINHIBITED, MODERATELY UNSTABLE SURFACE-3 KM
ENVIRONMENT, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY MEAN STEERING FLOW. LOCAL DOPPLER
RADAR CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT WAXING AND WANING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS MEAN FLOW, OCCASIONALLY ADVECTING ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS. OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY, SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE KEYS, WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90F AT MOST ISLAND
COMMUNITIES.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME, WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH PLENTY OF BREAKS IN CONVECTION AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS WESTWARD AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS IN
THE EVENING HOURS, BREEZES WILL MODESTLY FRESHEN, WITH ASSOCIATED
SPEED CONVERGENCE POSSIBLY LEADING TO A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY. WE WILL MONITOR THESE TRENDS, AS WE KICK OFF THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODEL (CAM) GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS EVOLUTION, AND WE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE MID-LEVEL CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. NO
CHANGES PROPOSED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. HOWEVER, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCASIONALLY PUSH THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY STORM WILL BE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
SURFACE LIGHTNING STRIKES.
FROM SYNOPSIS, THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK NORTH ATLANTIC
HIGH WILL REMAIN IN LOOSE CONTROL OF THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LIGHT TO GENTLE, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE, EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BREEZES OVERNIGHT THROUGH MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. IN ADDITION,
THE OVERALL FLOW WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH SEASONALLY NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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