324
FXUS62 KKEY 230231
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1031 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 946 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
THE COMBINATION OF TROUGHING OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS HAS RESULTED IN A SURFACE THROUGH MID
LEVEL COL NEAR THE KEYS. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
LARGELY DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE AND DIURNAL FORCING. THIS EVENINGS
SOUNDING INDICATED SOME LOWER LEVEL INHIBITION, AND NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL CAPE WAS LACKING AND
OVERALL CAPE WAS MODEST. AS A RESULT, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT WAS
ABLE TO FIRE ALONG ISLAND CLOUD LINES AND SOUTH FLORIDA SEABREEZE
INITIATED OUTFLOWS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE. CURRENTLY,
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL WOBBLE WESTWARD
INTO THE GULF, WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS NUDGES NEARER
SOUTH FLORIDA. IN RESPONSE, A SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL ADVANCE
WESTWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA, RESULTING IN BREEZES BECOMING A
PREVAILING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
INCREASES DUE TO THE USUAL NOCTURNAL PEAK AND THE INCOMING
SOUTHEASTERLIES. IN ADDITION, DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE, AS IS CAPE, AS LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. OUTSIDE OF RAIN COOLING
EFFECTS, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE MID 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 946 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
TROUGHING ALIGNED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST HAS
RESULTED IN A SPLIT RIDGE AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES ACROSS
KEYS WATERS. THE TROUGHING WILL SHIFT WESTWARD FURTHER INTO THE
GULF OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO ENCROACH WESTWARD
INTO FLORIDA. AS A RESULT, WINDS SHOULD FIRM UP MODESTLY OUT OF
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 946 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. WITH THAT
SAID, A WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE BROADER
AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN ROUNDS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS. AWAY FORM
CONVECTION, SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING
SOUTHEAST.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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