165
FXUS62 KKEY 171144
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
744 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS WEEKEND DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY GRADUALLY RETURN BY THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
ELEVATED.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY FOR THE GULF WATERS, SPREADING
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 502 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
WAXED AND WANED OVER THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
SATURDAY MORNING. AT LEAST TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WAS
OBSERVED AT THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION, AND MRMS-DERIVED
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ESTIMATED TOTALS UP TO AN INCH OVER STOCK
ISLAND. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS REMAINED OVER THE GULFSIDE WATERS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS MORNING WILL BE A BIT MORE COMPLICATED AS
NEAR SURFACE WINDS START TO TURN FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY.
KBYX RADAR SCANS THIS MORNING DETECTED A MESS OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE WATERS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO INITIATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN AREAS AROUND THE KEYS THAT DID NOT OBSERVE
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WET, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH, AT LEAST, THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TODAY ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES.
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS OBSERVATIONS FROM GOES EAST HIGHLIGHT A
STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF TO SOUTH
CAROLINA. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW CONSENSUS THAT THIS FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHERN WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT.
PEAK SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW. UNTIL THEN, KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR AND MAKE
ANY PREPARATIONS FOR SUSTAINED FRESH, OCCASIONALLY STRONG,
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 502 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS EARLY AS TONIGHT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS WHILE A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF.
FROM SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY. BREEZES ARE ON TRACK TO STAY LIGHT
TO GENTLE NORTHEASTERLIES BEFORE THE FRONT REACHES THE
NORTHERNMOST GULF WATERS TONIGHT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
PASSAGE ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS, BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO FRESHEN
RAPIDLY AMIDST SQUALLY CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PART OF OR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FRESH, OCCASIONALLY STRONG, NORTHEASTERLY
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. SHOWER CHANCES WILL PEAK TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
GRADUALLY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TAF PERIOD AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE KEYS.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
INCREASING THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACCOMPANIED BY
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. IN ADDITION, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS OF 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN DAY IN 1977, THE DAILY RECORD COLD HIGH OF 76F WAS
LAST RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872. ALSO, ON THIS DAY IN 2023, THE DAILY RECORD COLD
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 76F WAS RECORDED IN MARATHON. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1951.
OF NOTE
IN 1910, A CATEGORY 3-4 HURRICANE MOVED NORTH NORTHEAST PASSING ABOUT
25 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST. A NAVY TUG AT THE DRY TORTUGAS REPORTED A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 28.26" WITH CALM LASTING 40 MINUTES IN THE
EYE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 87 75 85 75 / 60 90 80 20
MARATHON 86 76 84 76 / 50 90 80 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DM
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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