900
FXUS62 KKEY 170931
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
431 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES, POTENTIALLY VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON,
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY FRESHENING AND
BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST HEADING INTO TUESDAY.
-DRY AIR WILL LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
-ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SLOW
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80F BY MID WEEK AND THEN LOWER
80S FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
ANOTHER QUIET AND COOL NIGHT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BEEN AT THE FOREFRONT AS THE BIG PINE KEY
RAWS HAS DIPPED DOWN TO A VERY CHILLY 57 DEGREES EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO DIP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO.
ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. THIS IS PROMOTING
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT MARINE PLATFORMS
SURROUNDING THE KEYS WITH ISLAND CHAIN COMMUNITIES EITHER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM. THE WEAK FLOW AND BASICALLY CALM WINDS
CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE CAUSE FOR SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ON BIG
PINE KEY. OTHERWISE, MOISTURE IS MEAGER WITH GOES EAST TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) ESTIMATING PWAT VALUES OF 0.7 TO 0.9
INCHES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING WAS ALSO
QUITE DRY THROUGH THE PROFILE AND MEASURED A PWAT OF 0.79 INCHES
WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. THIS HAS LED TO KBYX
RADAR NOT DETECTING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST
QUIET AND NICE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE KEYS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. A WEAK AND FLAT RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF FLORIDA TODAY.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY AIR ENTRENCHED THROUGHOUT THE AREA AND MUCH OF
THE STATE LEADING TO NIL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OVER THE STRAITS WHERE SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD LEND TO A SHOWER OR TWO. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SUBSTANTIAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT ON BIG PINE BEFORE WINDS
INCREASE TONIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKY,
THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. ANY COOLING TONIGHT
IS MOST LIKELY EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING BEFORE THE WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL LEAD
TO A STRENGTHENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE KEYS. THIS
WILL PROMOTE FRESHENING NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO A PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN, THOUGH, LATEST GUIDANCE IS BACKING OFF
ON THIS SOLUTION. MOISTURE REMAINS MEAGER KEEPING RAIN CHANCES
NEAR NIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS WINDS ALSO SHIFT TO THE EAST,
THIS WILL LEAD TO SLOWLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CREEPING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY. DUE TO THE WEAK FLOW, THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD OF VARIABLE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING. THIS
WILL PROMOTE FRESHENING NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES FOR MID WEEK.
THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
ELONGATING AND MAINTAINING STRENGTH AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES THROUGH LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH FOR THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
AND CLOUD COVERAGE. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLIES AFTER SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 78 69 79 71 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 77 69 79 72 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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