826
FXUS62 KKEY 111442
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1042 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS, DUE
TO HIGHER WATER LEVELS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
- A SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, KEEPING SLIM TO NO SHOWER AND THUNDER
CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH NOT MUCH RELIEF OVERNIGHT. REMEMBER TO
STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE BREAKS IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
GENERALLY UNREMARKABLE WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
THIS MORNING DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA/BIG BEND AREA. ONLY A HANDFUL OF SHOWERS ARE
DRIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, A COUPLE OF THEM OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS WHILE THE OTHERS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
WATERS. EVEN THOUGH THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT ISN'T CONDUCIVE TO
MUCH ACTIVITY, IT IS STILL SUMMER IN FLORIDA AND A COUPLE OF STRAY
SHOWERS ARE ALMOST ALWAYS POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THE
ATMOSPHERE IS CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH THE 12Z KKEY
SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING SHOWING A LOW LEVEL RH VALUE OF 80%
WHILE THE MID LEVEL RH WAS ONLY 25%. SATELLITE-DERIVED DUST
DETECTION HIGHLIGHTS A HIGHLY EXPANSIVE SWATH OF SAHARAN AIR
LAYER (SAL) ACROSS THE OUR AREA, SO THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP OUR
SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY AND THE VERTICAL PROFILE DRY. WE'LL GO AHEAD
AND MAINTAIN VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES, BETWEEN ZERO AND 10%, DUE TO
THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER TREKKING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB A FEW
MORE DEGREES AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE "SILVER
LINING" IS THE DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 70S. IF DEW POINTS
WERE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER, THE AIR WOULD FEEL GROSS.
HOWEVER, THIS ISN'T TO DIMINISH THE HEAT INDEX VALUES THAT ARE
PUSHING THE 100F MARK ALREADY, AS MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE LOWER TO MID 100S. THOSE
SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT SHOULD KEEP THIS IN MIND IF SPENDING TIME
OUTSIDE, AND CONSIDER TAKING BREAKS IN AIR CONDITIONING WHILE
REMAINING HYDRATED.
A COAST FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS DUE
TO HIGHER WATER LEVELS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. PONDING WATER
MAY APPEAR OVER LOW LYING LOTS AND ROADWAYS, AND MOTORISTS SHOULD
REMEMBER THAT ANY STANDING WATER LIKELY CONTAINS SALTWATER.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
THROUGH MID WEEK A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IN RESPONSE, THE DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO TREND DOWNWARDS THROUGH
THIS STRETCH, POTENTIALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MID
WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES SPLIT DAILY BY MAINLAND DAY
TIME HEATING. NO SIGNIFICANT TREND IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
HEADING INTO LATE WEEK, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MID LATITUDE TROUGH A BIT MORE, FURTHER
WEAKENING THE NEARBY RIDGING. MEANWHILE, ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A
BROAD LOWER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING WESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE
EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. AS THE TROUGH DRAWS
NEAR ON FRIDAY, WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN MODERATELY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST, THEN SHIFT EAST TO SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. IN
ADDITION, THIS TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED CONFLUENCE, LESS
INHIBITION, AND MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AT NEAR 2 INCHES.
FOR THIS REASON A PERIOD OR TWO OF AT LOW TO MID CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR REASONABLE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHILE THERE ARE NO MARINE HAZARD PRODUCTS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS, A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE LOWER KEYS DUE TO HIGHER WATER LEVELS AROUND TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. ANYONE ON THE WATER SHOULD BE AWARE OF REDUCED CLEARANCE
UNDERNEATH FIXED BRIDGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO
OCCASIONALLY SOUTHEAST BREEZES, AND A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL HELP
TO KEEP RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES VERY LOW. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY
FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER THE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VERY LOW,
NEARLY ZERO, RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES. OCCASIONAL MVFR
OBSERVATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CLOUD FIELD BASED NEAR FL020,
BUT NO IMPACTS AT EITHER TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED. SAHARAN DUST IN
THE LOWER LEVELS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 8 TO 9 SM AT TIMES, BUT
VIS WILL REMAIN GREATER THAN 6 SM. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 85 92 85 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 91 84 92 84 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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