009
FXUS62 KKEY 291820
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
220 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, WITH A BRIEF UPTICK TO GENTLE TO MODERATE HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A WETTER
PATTERN IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH NEAR-NIL RAIN CHANCES. NEAR-SURFACE WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AT 4 TO 7 KNOTS,
VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY, RESULTING IN GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLIES
TRENDING DOWNWARDS AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY WILL
SLACKEN LOCAL BREEZES FURTHER AND INTRODUCE VARIABLE DIRECTION.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, LIKELY SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES. WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN AGAIN LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AS A TROUGH PUSHES OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A RESULT, GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES THIS
MORNING SHOULD SLACKEN AND VEER SOUTHEASTERLY. THE WEAKENING FLOW
WILL BE PERTURBED BY DAYTIME HEATING, RESULTING IN A MORE CHAOTIC
FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT WITH FORCING REMAINING WEAK
AND DRY AIR DOMINATING PERSISTING ABOVE 850 MB. IN ADDITION,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CAPPING WILL SETUP AROUND 800 MB.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONAL WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING
NEAR 70.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF AND DEEPEN AS IT PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALSO EFFECTIVELY SHARPEN A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA, AND BRIEFLY BUMP UP SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY
BREEZES INTO THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE. THE STRONGER MORE
VEERED FLOW WILL BRING IN DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. WHILE HIGHS
SHOULD GO NOWHERE, OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY STRUGGLE TO SLIP BELOW 80.
THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CUBAN SHADOW, LIMITING RAIN
CHANCES. HOWEVER, SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM THE EVENING
THROUGH LATE MORNING HOURS.
WINDS WILL RELAX AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATE THIS
WEEKEND AS THE BULK OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH LIFTS OUT
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC TRAILING A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
GULF. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONGER MID LATITUDE
TROUGHING SWINGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, REACHING DOWN
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THIS STRETCH, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 76 85 76 86 / 10 0 0 0
MARATHON 76 85 76 85 / 10 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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