154
FXUS62 KKEY 130333
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1033 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A FEW SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE ISLAND CHAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
-TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR.
-A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY, BRINGING A
REINFORCING PUSH OF CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 925 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS EVENING DUE TO AN OLD
FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S, AND THE
LOWER LEVELS NEARLY SATURATED. CLOSE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS
PROVIDED WEAK SUPPRESSION DUE TO COPIOUS DRIER AIR ABOVE A WEAK
750 MB INVERSION. DESPITE THE MODEST FLOW, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, MAINLY ACROSS
THE DEEP GULF, FLORIDA STRAITS, AND IN AND AROUND THE UPPER KEYS.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND WEAKEN A COUPLE OF MILLIBARS OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
WINDS TO BECOME MORE UNIFORM LIGHT NORTHEASTERLIES. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BROAD WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST
ACROSS OUR AREA DESPITE THE DISSIPATION OF THE OLD SOUTH FLORIDA
HEAT TROUGH. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT.
IN ADDITION THIS WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD DEGREE OF SPREAD IN WIND
DIRECTIONS. EXPECT WINDS TO BE BACKED NORTH TO NORTHEAST ON OUR
WESTERN ZONES AND NORTHEAST TO EAST TO THE EAST. EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH SMALL TO NO DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, WITH THE UPPER KEYS
HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 925 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
THE COMBINATION OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND DAY TIME
HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN MAINLY GENTLE NORTHEAST
TO EASTERLY BREEZES ON KEYS WATERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INITIALLY
BE HIGHER AND BACKED NORTHERLY ON OUR WESTERN WATERS, LARGELY DUE
TO EARLIER DAY TIME HEATING. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE IN THE
EVENING MARINE UPDATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 925 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, MOISTURE ABOUNDS AND PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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