256
FXUS62 KKEY 080849
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
449 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT, AND PARTICULARLY LOW
LYING AREAS WILL SEE SOME SALTWATER PONDING AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
- A CHANCE OF SHOWERS & A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES UNTIL MORE MOISTURE
RETURNS FRI/FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES AGAIN.
- HURRICANE ISAIAS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF, BUT DOES
NOT POSE A THREAT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS CONTINUES TO SHOW A COMPLEX PATTERN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE LOWER 48, GULF AND WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. WE NOW HAVE
HURRICANE ISAIAS WHICH IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TO
THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA, STRETCHING FROM JUST WEST OF TAMPA
EASTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
ARE TWO RIDGES ON EITHER SIDE OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WITH ONE OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND THE OTHER OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. AT THE
SURFACE, WEAK RIDGING REMAINS AS THE MAIN RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC
HAS LOOSENED ITS GRIP QUITE A BIT THIS MORNING. MARINE PLATFORMS
SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE RECORDING VARIABLE BREEZES OF 5
KNOTS OR LESS AS A RESULT. KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN ACTIVE ALL NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE ACTIVITY HAS
WAFFLED FROM AREA TO AREA, THOUGH, THE MAIN AREA HAS BEEN ACROSS
THE SE GULF AND THE DISTANT STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOWER KEYS OVERNIGHT. THERE WAS ALSO EARLIER ACTIVITY IN THE
UPPER KEYS AND SURROUNDING NEARSHORE WATERS WITH THE NEW ACTIVITY
INFRINGING ON THE MIDDLE KEYS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE COOL SPOT CURRENTLY IS THE BIG PINE KEY RAWS WHICH HAS DIPPED
TO 77 DEGREES SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING.
FORECAST
TAKING THE ZOOMED OUT LOOK AT THE WEATHER, WE HAVE HURRICANE
ISAIAS WHICH CONTINUES TO LUMBER ALONG. ISAIAS IS CURRENTLY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST GULF TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTH GULF COAST HEADING
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ALL THIS TO SAY, ISAIAS DOES NOT POSE
ANY THREAT TO THE KEYS. HOWEVER, THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER
FEATURES COMBINED WITH ISAIAS WILL INFLUENCE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
TO AN EXTENT ACROSS OUR AREA, NAMELY IN THE FORM OF WINDS AND
SEAS. BREEZES WILL SLOWLY FRESHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST
PERIODS WHILE ALSO SHIFTING TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY THE
WEEKEND. BASICALLY, ISAIAS TO THE WEST AND THE HIGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA LEADING TO THE FRESHENING BREEZES. IN ADDITION, THE STORM
WILL SEND OUT SOME SWELL TO THE EAST WHICH WILL ESPECIALLY IMPACT
THE WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. THIS
WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR AND SURROUNDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL THIS MORNING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SENDS DRIER AIR NORTHWARD FROM
CUBA. THIS WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES. AN UPPER LEVEL
PIECE OF ENERGY, CURRENTLY OVER HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH IN THE ATLANTIC.
THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS SOMETIME FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN ANOTHER UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND THUS RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES.
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND INCLUDING THE HOLIDAY ITSELF. AS THE RIDGING TAKE
HOLD, BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO SLACKEN ALONG WITH DRIER AIR LEADING
TO DECREASED RAIN CHANCES. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO REMAIN QUITE
WARM IN THE UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS POTENTIALLY HOVERING NEAR 80 DEGREES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
VERY WARM AND TROPICAL FOR CONSIDERING WE ARE APPROACHING MID-
OCTOBER AT THIS POINT.
NUMERICAL AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SIGNS FOR A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO POTENTIALLY PRESS THROUGH THE KEYS AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COULD THERE BE POTENTIAL RELIEF FROM
THE HUMIDITY TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF AS WE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
OCTOBER? TIME WILL TELL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THIS IN
THE COMING DAYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNING, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF LESS CLEARANCE
UNDER FIXED BRIDGES AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AS A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS,
HURRICANE ISAIAS, CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS, IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, STRENGTHENING AS IT DOES SO. A COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH WILL SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHWARD
INFRINGING ON THE SURFACE RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. IN DOING SO, THESE
SYSTEMS WILL ACT IN TANDEM AND CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE KEYS, RESULTING IN FRESHENING MAINLY SOUTHEAST
BREEZES AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BE ON THE RISE LEADING TO HIGHER RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES.
ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT BOTH EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY,
A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR EITHER
TERMINAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THEREAFTER. ANY SHOWERS OR STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITY, PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, AND
POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2020, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 83F
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872. ON THIS DAY IN 2012, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW
TEMPERATURE OF 82F WAS RECORDED IN MARATHON. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 82 88 82 / 30 20 30 70
MARATHON 88 82 88 82 / 20 20 40 70
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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