226
FXUS62 KKEY 030147
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
947 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 951 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY QUIET
DURING THE PAST EVENING. THAT SAID, ACTIVE WEATHER WAS ABLE TO
DEVELOP WITHIN OUR CWA. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS PULSED INTO
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OUTER GULF WATERS. WEAK SHOWERS WERE
DETECTED ON THE KBYX RADAR NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. HOWEVER, THESE
LOWER ALTITUDE FEATURES ARE MOSTLY OBSCURED ON GOES EAST
SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO HIGH ALTITUDE CIRRUS CLOUDS DIRECTED
TOWARDS THE KEYS BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING SAMPLED
AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD BE PRIMED FOR SHOWER FORMATION GIVEN
HIGH CAPE, MINIMAL INHIBITION, AND A PWAT VALUE VERY CLOSE TO THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DAY. THE FIRST PROBLEM FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE SLIGHTLY BACKING WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE AND A SHALLOW DRY
LAYER JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IF SHOWERS CAN GET ABOVE THE
DRIER LAYERS IN THE MID- ATMOSPHERE, THEN THE WIND SHEAR FROM THE
TUTT OUTFLOW WOULD CUT OFF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. OVERALL,
EXPECTING A QUIET BUT HUMID NIGHT ACROSS THE KEYS WITH SUSTAINED
CLOUD COVER.
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST ARE REQUIRED FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAINTAINED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 951 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, BROAD LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO REBUILD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND SUPPORT LIGHT TO
GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
MOVES LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 951 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR EYW AND MTH THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED, BUT NOT AT
HIGH ENOUGH FREQUENCY TO REQUIRE A TEMPO GROUP. NEAR SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND FREQUENTLY VARIABLE. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT BOTH TERMINALS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....11
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