610
FXUS62 KKEY 211727
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
127 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS, SUPPORTING AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
- FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS.
- THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
UNLIKELY, THEREFORE, VCSH HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE TERMINALS.
NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF NEAR 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
CIMSS MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUES TO SHOW A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUING TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING
THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE RECORDING NORTHEAST BREEZES OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS AS A RESULT. KBYX RADAR HAS REMAINED ACTIVE ALL NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE NEARSHORE
AND OFFSHORE WATERS, MAINLY SURROUNDING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
KEYS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAINFALL
TO ISLAND CHAIN COMMUNITIES. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
LOWER KEYS AS WELL BUT MOST ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED NEAR THE MIDDLE
KEYS OVERNIGHT. MRMS DATA SHOWS ESTIMATED HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF A TENTH TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVERNIGHT. GOES 19
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS DECENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
KEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHOWERS LEADING TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID
70S AND DEW POINTS ARE NEAR 70 DEGREES.
FORECAST
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND IT
WHICH WILL THEN DOMINATE THE KEYS WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE BREEZES SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE HIGH SLOWLY
SHIFTS OUT INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
PLENTIFUL THIS MORNING BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A
RESULT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE KEYS REMAIN IN GENERAL ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS MAY
INSTIGATE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THEREFORE, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY. THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS ON THIS PERIOD POTENTIALLY
BEING QUITE WET. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. INSTABILITY WILL
ALSO BE ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, DECREASING RAIN CHANCES, AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY ALONG WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. FROM
SYNOPSIS, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN THE WAKE OF LAST EVENINGS FRONT. THIS HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THE HIGH SLOWLY WEAKENS, BREEZES
WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN BY THURSDAY. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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