335
FXUS62 KKEY 120213
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1013 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. HEAT INDICES MAY CREEP TOWARDS 110 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL LINGER ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, KEEPING RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHT AT BEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WE HAVE SEEN NEARLY A COMPLETE TURN AROUND THIS EVENING WHEN
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO! THE OFFENDING TROUGH AXIS LIFTED OUT OF
OUR AREA, AND WE HAVE BEEN LEFT WITH A BLANKET OF CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
THE 00Z KKEY FROM THIS EVENING SHOWS A NOTABLE INFLUENCE FROM
SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) IN THE LOWER LEVELS, BUT A MODESTLY THICK
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS IS AROUND 21,000 TO 25,000 FEET AGL. THE
SAL HAS KEPT CONDITIONS UNFAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT, AND
THE STRATUS LAYER HAS HELPED TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING
TOO UNBEARABLE. THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME RETURNS ACROSS THE AREA
BUT IT'S ACTUALLY DETECTING SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER WHERE THE
RADAR BEAM IS INTERCEPTING THE CLOUD LAYER. OUR ASOS SITES AT BOTH
KEY WEST AND MARATHON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS ONLY REPORT CLOUD
HEIGHTS UP TO 12,000 FEET (FOR AVIATION PURPOSES) SO THEY ARE
CURRENTLY REPORTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, BUT A QUICK LOOK AT
GOES-19 CLOUD TOP SHOWS THAT OUR SKIES ARE ANYTHING BUT CLEAR.
WITH THE SAL LAYER SO CLEARLY PRESENT ALOFT, RAIN CHANCES WILL
STAY VERY LOW TONIGHT. HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONE OR TWO VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SO WE'LL GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE (10%) OF RAIN JUST IN CASE SOMETHING DRIFTS OVER THE
ISLAND CHAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S. 24 HOURS AGO,
TEMPERATURES WERE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER, AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES WERE UNABLE TO BE CALCULATED. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH OUR BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO INSULATE
US, AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY COME DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OVERNIGHT.
NO CHANGES ARE PROPOSED FOR THIS EVENING UPDATE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODESTLY MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES,
AND THESE WILL TEND TO PEAK IN THE EVENING AND NIGHT BEFORE
SLACKENING SLIGHTLY IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW, LESS THAN 10%, OVER THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEW WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL REPORTS OF FEW TO SCT CLOUDS NEAR FL025, BUT AN OVC
DECK IS SITTING SOMEWHERE AROUND FL210. SAHARAN DUST ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP BOTH SITES RAIN FREE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EAST TO OCCASIONALLY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS INITIALLY BEFORE SLACKENING TO NEAR 10
KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 92 83 92 / 10 10 0 10
MARATHON 84 90 83 90 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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