533
FXUS62 KKEY 040334
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1034 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WEATHER WILL TREND DRIER AND MODESTLY WARMER FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
- GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE BREEZES FRESHEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
- THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA
KEYS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, BRINGING WITH IT COOLER
AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS
MAINTAINING LIGHT TO GENTLE BROADLY NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ALONG
THE KEYS THIS EVENING. A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND CONTINUES
ALONG THE KEYS, BUT COOL CONDITIONS REMAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE KEYS. DEW POINTS JUMPED
QUITE A BIT IN 24 HOURS, FROM THE LOWER 30'S TO LOWER 50S.
HOWEVER, THIS EVENING SOUNDING INDICATED A SHARP AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 850 MB WITH VERY WARM AND DRY AIR
ABOVE. STRONG VEERING THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
AN EXPANSIVE SWATH OF STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE KEYS THIS EVENING AND SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST.
THE RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE MOSTLY
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. WHILE WINDS WILL TRY TO VEER FURTHER EASTERLY,
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE STILL VERY COOL GULF AND BAY SIDE WATERS
WILL KEEP WINDS BACKED NORTH TO NORTHEAST. FOR EXAMPLE, OCEAN
REEF HAD SHIFTED EAST NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT HAS
ALREADY BACKED JUST WEST OF NORTH. MEANWHILE, WINDS AT CARYSFORT
REEF LIGHT REMAINS EAST NORTHEASTERLY. THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL
MINIMIZE THE AMOUNT OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. AS A RESULT, EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, LARGELY DICTATED
BY GULF AND BAY WATERS STILL IN THE MID 50S. DEW POINTS MAY CLIMB
A BIT INTO THE MID 50S. VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
A PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IS MAINTAINING GENTLE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ON KEYS
WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE A BIT MORE VEERED EAST
NORTHEASTERLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE KEYS. A SUBTLE LAND BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND WINDS MAY PICK UP SLIGHTLY IN
THE PREDAWN HOURS TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE. NO MAJOR CHANGES
PLANNED FOR THE EVENING MARINE UPDATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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