107
FXUS62 KKEY 300230
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1030 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES (EXCEPT GENTLE TO MODERATE, BECOMING
GENTLE IN THE STRAITS) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
- CONDITIONS ARE SETTING UP FOR A POTENTIAL CLOUD LINE TO
DEVELOPMENT OVER OR ADJACENT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS ON TUESDAY.
THIS WOULD ALSO CARRY A RISK FOR POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS THE LOWER 48. A STRONG DEEP MEAN LAYER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH THE CENTER OF THIS
RIDGE NEAR THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION. ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
INTO CANADA, A MEAN LAYER TROUGH REMAINS. THE TROUGH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL WEATHER CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE THE RIDGE IS SET TO BAKE THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE KEYS
REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE. MARINE
PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE RECORDING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. KBYX RADAR HAS REMAINED ACTIVE
FOR MUCH OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THIS ACTIVITY
OCCURRING IN DIFFERENT AREAS. INITIALLY, THE ACTIVITY WAS ACROSS
THE STRAITS, THEN A CLOUD LINE CAUSED A SHOWER TO DEVELOP JUST
NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST AND CURRENTLY A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SE GULF
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE VERY WARM
IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S KEEPING
IT TOASTY FOR THESE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF JUNE.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING A MOSTLY DRY PROFILE ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH
UNSTABLE WITH A CAPE VALUE MEASURED OF 3058 J/KG. THE PWAT VALUE
MEASURED IS LESS THAN LAST EVENING INDICATING DRIER AIR HAS MOVED
INTO THE REGION. THE VALUE MEASURED WAS 1.73 INCHES WHICH IS NEAR
THE MEDIAN FOR THE DATE. ALSO, THE WIND PROFILE ISN'T THAT
REPRESENTATIVE OR WHAT WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH MOSTLY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW
THOUSAND FEET. THEREFORE, WE LACK THE MOISTURE AND TRIGGER,
THOUGH, WE HAVE THE INSTABILITY, ANY SHOWERS THAT DO TRY TO
DEVELOP MAY EASILY BECOME A THUNDERSTORM AS THEY FEED ON THE
INSTABILITY. NO CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS A
RESULT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PRESS SOUTH OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL ACT TO WEAKEN A BROAD
HIGH STREWN ACROSS THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR SLACKENING BREEZES
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A CLOUD LINE TO DEVELOP OVER
OR ACROSS THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS ON TUESDAY.
THIS MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS. BREEZES MAY
BRIEFLY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING,
BEFORE RESUMING A CYCLE OF OVERNIGHT PEAKS AND DAYTIME LULLS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
EASTERLY OVERNIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VARIABLE, A CLOUD LINE IS ANTICIPATED ONCE
AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 83 92 83 / 10 10 20 30
MARATHON 89 83 89 83 / 10 10 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND X AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.X.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page