671
FXUS62 KKEY 111503
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1103 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED (30-40%) THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES WILL ENSUE TONIGHT, LASTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY, WITH HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING NEAR 100F EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1011 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
THE 12Z SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED A UNIDIRECTIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER
PROFILE, CHARACTERIZED BY DECENT 700-850 MB DEW DOINT DEPRESSIONS
AND LIMITED 100 MB MEAN-LAYER INHIBITION. GOES-19 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT RELATIVELY THICK CIRRUS
ADVECTING FROM THE SOUTH, DEBRIS FROM A QUASISTATIONARY, BROAD
CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE FEATURE. ARRIVED EARLIER THIS MORNING TO OUR
CWA NEARLY ECHO FREE FROM METEOROLOGICAL RETURNS. SINCE THEN,
CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS COMMENCED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER KEYS AND THE ADJACENT MARINE ZONES.
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY, A TOUGH RAINFALL FORECAST. CURRENT
REASONING SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE CYCLES WILL BE SHORT, WITH RAPID
PERIODS OF WAXING AND WANING OWED TO DECAYING FLOW. HOWEVER, THERE
ARE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES LOOKING ACROSS THE KEYS MARINE ZONES, AND
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO SOMEWHAT RIPE FOR ISLAND CLOUD FORMATION,
INCLUDING NEARSHORE WATERSPOUTS. HOWEVER, THE AFOREMENTIONED
850-700 MB MODERATE DRY AIR ALONG WITH THE OVERSHADOWING CIRRUS
WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK. HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED 30-40% POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES PROPOSED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1011 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE WEST- CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MERGING WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1011 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THAT SAID, CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
ISLAND CLOUD LINE FORMATION, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF EYW.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG ANY
BOUNDARIES THAT MAY COLLIDE OVER THE KEYS MARINE ZONES. DUE TO THE
LACK OF COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IN TIMING, HAVE LEFT MENTION OF
VCSH OUT FOR NOW IN THE TAFS. RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES NEAR THE
TERMINALS WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY AFTER THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 89 81 90 / 10 20 10 20
MARATHON 81 89 80 89 / 10 20 10 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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