016
FXUS62 KKEY 030913
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
413 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-SOME AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND SOME OF THIS FOG MAY CROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
-LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL VEER FROM NORTHERLIES TO NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLIES. FRESHENING BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A PEAK OF MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES.
-THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR AN UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO OCCUR
SOMETIME OVER THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIMEFRAME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
DECEMBER IS HERE AT LAST, WHICH INCLUDES CHAOTIC WINTER WEATHER
PATTERNS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS, THIS
TAKES THE SHAPE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES, VEERING WINDS, AND EVEN
OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING FOG. GOES EAST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
OBSERVATIONS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN HIGHLIGHT FRACTURED STRATUS
CLOUDS ALONG LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND STRETCHING INTO THE GULF. THOSE
CLOUDS INDICATE A COLD FRONT MEANDERING TOWARDS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
HOWEVER, THAT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS STILL AT LEAST HALF A DAY OUT.
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. RADIATIONAL COOLING IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE CWA, AND SENSORS ON LARGER ISLANDS
ARE MEASURING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO LINGER
IN THE UPPER 70S. EARLY MORNING RADIATION FOG IS A CONCERN FOR
KEYS RESIDENTS, BUT THE THREAT DOES NOT END WITH SUNRISE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOG EVENT FOR THE
BAYSIDE WATERS AND THE ISLAND CHAIN. RELATIVE TO 400 AM, THE FOG
LAYER HAS NOT FORMED, BUT FOG DEVELOPS VERY QUICKLY OVER THE KEYS.
BRACE FOR VEHICLES TO BE DRENCHED IN CONDENSATION THIS MORNING.
IN THE SHORT TERM, CONDITIONS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL BE CLOSE
TO PERSISTENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEK. INCREASING DEW POINTS INDICATE THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN VERY MUGGY. WINDS ARE THE SHIFTING VARIABLE; EXPECT TO SEE
WINDS FRESHEN TOMORROW AND VEER NORTHEASTERLY. HOWEVER, THIS
PATTERN WILL NOT LAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY,
A POLAR VORTEX LOCATED OVER CANADA'S MARITIME PROVINCES WILL HELP
FUEL A PARADE OF 'CLIPPER' LOWS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS OCCURS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TOWARDS THE PLAINS. ALL THESE PATTERNS BECOME RELEVANT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS A DISTINCT SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. FOR THE
KEYS, WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
VEERING TO SOUTHEASTERLY. DEW POINTS MAY RISE TO THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS TOWARDS THE
CWA EARLY NEXT WEEK. KEEP IN MIND, THIS IS ABOUT FIVE TO SIX DAYS
OUT AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE MAY CHANGE. WHAT MATTERS THE MOST AT
THIS TIME IS THAT BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
WITHIN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A COLD
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO THE MIDDLE OF THE
GULF WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS
OF PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE BAYSIDE
WATERS. BREEZES WILL VEER NORTHEASTERLY AND FRESHEN TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY AND SLACKEN OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND MOIST CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OR ADVECTION OF PATCHY FOG
NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN. WHILE MORE LIKELY AT MTH, THIS MAY CAUSE
BOUTS OF IFR OR WORSE VIS AND CIGS AT EITHER TERMINAL FOR A COUPLE
HOURS. FOG IS NOT CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN OUR AREA SO HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP IMPACTS IN THE TAFS LIGHTER UNTIL IT MAYBE FORMS. IF THIS
DOES COME TO PASS, ANY SIGN OF FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN
A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE. AFTERWARD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH NEAR SURFACE WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTH
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2018, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 80F
WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. TEMPERATURE DATA FOR
KEY WEST DATES BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 70 81 73 / 0 0 0 10
MARATHON 80 71 80 73 / 0 0 0 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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