258
FXUS62 KKEY 261809
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
209 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, HIGHEST
IN THE UPPER KEYS.
- ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- MAINLY GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES TODAY WILL BRIEFLY SURGE
TONIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, SURROUNDING OBS ARE
REPORTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES, OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE AT TIMES. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE KEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL PROMOTE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST BREEZES WHICH WILL
PEAK IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND LULL IN THE
AFTERNOONS. THE STRONGEST SURGE OF BREEZES IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
TONIGHT WHERE MOSTLY MODERATE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION, THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER ISLAND CHAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS IN THE KMTH TAF DUE TO A NEARBY
TS. BASED ON WHERE STORMS HAVE INITIATED WELL EAST OF THE LOWER
KEYS, AND WITH MINIMAL CU DEVELOPMENT NOTED NEAR KEYW, I DID NOT
INCLUDE A MENTION OF TS AT KEYW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WILL AMEND IF IT APPEARS THAT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING
NEAR KEYW. HOWEVER, HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SUPPORT
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WITH A PROB30 AT BOTH TERMINALS
FOR TSRA FROM ~08-12Z.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE STAGNANT SPLIT RIDGE PATTERN
IN PLACE. ONE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
WHILE THE SECOND RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO THE
WEST OF THE AZORES. IN BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES, A BROAD MEAN LAYER
TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
AT THE SURFACE, THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS. MARINE
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE RECORDING
SOUTHEAST BREEZES NEAR 10 KNOTS AS A RESULT. GOES 19 TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS ESTIMATED PWATS OF 1.8 TO
2 INCHES ACROSS THE KEYS. KBYX RADAR HAS REMAINED ACTIVE FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SE GULF WATERS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
FORECAST
THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS CAN BE SUMMED UP WITH THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE KEYS
ALONG WITH BOUTS OF MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROUND THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OVERALL, EXPECT ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IN ADDITION, EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PEAK IN THE EVENINGS
AND OVERNIGHT AND LULL IN THE AFTERNOONS.
THE INTERESTING TIME FRAME CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE IN
THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE PRESSES THROUGH THE KEYS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW. THEREFORE, LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
THE BIGGER SHOW AS WE WILL HAVE BASICALLY ALL THE INGREDIENTS
LINED UP FOR ROBUST CONVECTION. WE WILL HAVE THE INSTABILITY,
MOISTURE, AND LIFT ALL LINING UP AT THE SAME TIME. MORE SIMPLY
PUT, EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WHICH IS ENTIRELY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. AVERAGE
RAIN CHANCES ALSO PEAK FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER AT 35%, WHICH
IS LESS THAN A WEEK AWAY. IT IS ALSO HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT
TIMING FOR CONVECTION AS BASICALLY JUST EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN ADDITION, EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. OF COURSE, TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S
WHERE ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE OVER.
TROPICS: THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) CONTINUES TO MONITOR
2 AREAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS
CURRENTLY POSING A THREAT TO THE KEYS. THE AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS A 70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS
AND A 70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 83 90 83 90 / 40 50 40 50
MARATHON 83 90 83 90 / 40 50 40 50
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DM
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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