095
FXUS62 KKEY 081742
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1242 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CLIP PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
-TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES, AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S.
-CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A POTENTIALLY STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND THE END OF THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WARRANTING MENTION OF VCSH IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH
ISLAND TERMINALS THORUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 433 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
A BUILDING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO CHANNEL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG ITS PERIPHERY. THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE MOSTLY ORIENTED
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BUT MAY AT TIMES BUTT UP AGAINST THE
ISLAND CHAIN TODAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWER. ONCE THIS PLUME PIVOTS OUT OF THE AREA, DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER BACK IN AND RETURN POPS TO NEAR NIL, ROUGHLY FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
BY THIS WEEKEND, THE RIDGE WILL GET SHUNTED EASTWARD BY THE NEXT
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BUNCH UP ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY AND BRING BACK
DIME POPS TO THE ISLAND CHAIN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING OUR NEXT COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. AS WELL AS INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES, WINDS WILL FRESHEN
IN ITS WAKE. MODELS ARE HONING ON IN THAT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN STALL NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
A MORE ACTIVE THAN USUAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE KEYS. WHILE
CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN ON THE COLD FRONT, WHAT HAPPENS POST-FRONTAL
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND WILL KEEP POPS LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN, ALLOWING BREEZES
TO FRESHEN TO GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
BECOME MORE EASTERLY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OUT ACROSS THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA, WHERE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH BREEZES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS LOOKING TO BE LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY, WITH FRESHENING NORTHERLY BREEZES IN THE WAKE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 72 80 70 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON 80 72 81 71 / 20 0 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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