492
FXUS62 KKEY 300817
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
417 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MINOR TO MODERATE SALTWATER FLOODING OF LOW ELEVATION STREETS
AND LOTS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY OR SO DUE
TO KING TIDE. DON'T DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. BOATERS CAN
EXPECT LESS CLEARANCE UNDER FIXED BRIDGES.
- A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.
- A WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE
KEYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE IN A MOMENTARY LULL WITH THE KBYX RADAR
SURPRISINGLY QUIET ALL ACROSS OUR CWA. NEAREST AREA OF CONVECTION
IS MOVING OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND BEGINNING TO ENTER OPEN
WATERS. TIME WILL TELL IF THIS ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO OUR WATERS.
OTHERWISE, WE ARE IN THE THICK OF IT SO TO SPEAK. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LIES TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF BASIN, EXTENDING
WELL INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS HAS PLACED THE KEYS UNDER A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. IN FACT, WE'RE MONITORING THE NEARLY
WEST TO EAST LINE OF CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING
NORTH AND IS CURRENTLY REACHING CUBA. THIS LINE IS ON PACE TO
REACH THE KEYS BETWEEN 0900-1200 TODAY. GIVEN THIS TRAJECTORY
PLUS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLUX AND THE PRESENCE OF THE
NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LIKELY POPS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. IN
ADDITION, WE CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF KING TIDES,
THEREFORE, SHOULD HEAVY RAIN COINCIDE WITH TIMES OF HIGH TIDE, WE
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF ENHANCED FLOODING.
MEANWHILE, TO OUR NORTH, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OFFSHORE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND MERGE WITH AN EXISTING ATLANTIC RIDGE AND
SUBSEQUENTLY BUILD. THIS WILL LEAD TO FRESHENING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BREEZES ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT
WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH MARINE CAUTION
HEADLINES LIKELY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT GIVEN THE EARLY NATURE OF THIS BUILDING HIGH THAT
MODELS MAY BE SLIGHTLY UNDERPLAYING THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.
NONETHELESS, WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EASE
AND ALLOW FOR BREEZES TO SLOWLY SLACKEN BACK TO GENTLE TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH EASES, WE
SHOULD SEE RAIN CHANCES RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WHAT WILL BE
THE FIRST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES HAVE
RETURNED AFTER A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER LAST EVENING AND EARLY
IN THE OVERNIGHT. BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY FRESHEN THROUGH THE DAY
AS A HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD MOVES
OFFSHORE AND MERGES WITH AN EXISTING ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE IS
GROWING CONFIDENCE OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER, THAT WE WILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD WINDS. FOR NOW IF WE WERE TO SEE
THEM, THEY WOULD BE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH BREEZES WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
BEFORE SLACKENING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ACTIVE WET PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
THE ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY WORKED OVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
AND AS SUCH, WE ANTICIPATE A CONTINUED BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THE NEXT ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS PASSING OVER THE ISLAND OF CUBA AND IS PROGGED TO
REACH THE ISLAND CHAIN AROUND OR AFTER 14Z. HAVE MAINTAINED A
PROB30 FOR TSRA DURING THIS PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 78 89 79 / 70 80 80 60
MARATHON 87 79 88 80 / 70 80 70 50
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR FLZ076>078.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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