552
FXUS62 KKEY 230230
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1030 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK. AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES.
-WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FRESHEN SHARPLY BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY,
POTENTIALLY LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
IT HAS BEEN AN OVERALL QUIET LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX RADAR HAS NOT DETECTED ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
UNTIL THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WHICH THEN
MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. THESE SHOWERS
ARE STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS THEY CONTINUE MOVING
TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHICH HAS BEEN SLOWLY
BUILDING AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
IS PROMOTING NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT
MARINE PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z SOUNDING IS MUCH DRIER WHEN COMPARED TO THE SOUNDING LAST
EVENING. THE PWAT VALUE MEASURED WAS 1.34 INCHES WHICH IS CLOSE TO
THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. THE PROFILE DISPLAYS LARGELY DRY
AIR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN. THE EXCEPTION IS
AROUND 850-875 MB WHERE SLIGHT MOISTENING OCCURS AND A WEAK
INVERSION IS PRESENT. THE WIND PROFILE DISPLAYS NORTHEAST TO EAST
BREEZES UNIFORMLY THROUGH THE COLUMN WHICH IS NOT PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER FORMATION. THEREFORE, A SIMILAR FORECAST TO
LAST NIGHT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ANY SHOWERS MOSTLY DRIVEN BY
MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND SPEED CONVERGENCE SINCE DIRECTION IS
VIRTUALLY THE SAME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) FOR INCREASING WINDS IS
HEADLINED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE REQUIRED THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS ALSO HEADLINED FOR THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FROM SYNOPSIS, TROPICAL STORM MELISSA
CHURNING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FRESHENING NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE
STAGNANT PATTERN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PACKAGE.
NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST TO EAST
BETWEEN 4 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GUSTY TOWARDS LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 86 77 86 76 / 10 10 10 20
MARATHON 85 77 85 76 / 10 10 10 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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