500
FXUS62 KKEY 261728
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1228 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT TO GENTLE TODAY.
-NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A MAINLY DRY PATTERN ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
-THE NEXT, POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THEREFORE
NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. NEAR SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1102 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL, SUNNY DAY FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS! GOES-19
VISIBLE SATELITTE REVEALS ALMOST A PERFECT RING OF CLOUD-FREE
SKIES SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN, WITH THE ONLY PRESENCE OF
CLOUDS SITTING JUST OUTSIDE OUR WATERS ON ALL SIDES. TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 70S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL REALLY NICE OUTSIDE! ALONG
THE REEF, OBSERVATION SITES ARE RECORDING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS MORNING'S 12Z SOUNDING ONCE AGAIN MEASURED
BELOW THE 25 PERCENTILE FOR TODAY, ONLY MEASURING 0.74 INCHES OF
PWAT. A DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES IS
EXPECTED FOR THE KEYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR BREEZES TO SLIGHTLY SLACKEN TO LIGHT TO GENTLE FOR
THE NEXT FEW PERIODS. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE.
FORECAST
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES FOR TODAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MEANDER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE COMING DAYS LEADING TO
SLACKENING BREEZES. BY THE WEEKEND, BREEZES WILL MOSTLY LIGHT,
THOUGH, THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT TO GENTLE, POTENTIALLY
BECOMING VARIABLE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. DRY
AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN NIL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE FINAL DAYS OF 2025, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW INDICATIONS OF A POTENT FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS THROUGH
SOMETIME TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING NEXT WEEK. THE MAGNITUDE AND
STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE, THE
MAIN TAKEAWAY CONTINUES TO BE A COOLER REGIME, DIP IN HUMIDITY,
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS, AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1102 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE MAINLY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BREEZES. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO SLACKENING BREEZES.
A POTENT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE KEYS TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO FRESHENING
NORTHERLY BREEZES THROUGHOUT ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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