981  
FXUS62 KKEY 021512  
AFDKEY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL  
1112 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2020  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WILL BE HARD TO GIN UP SHOWERS TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THIS  
MORNING'S 12Z KEY BALLOON SOUNDING. THE SOUNDING SHOWED A  
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUE OF 1.49", WHICH IS BELOW THE 25TH  
PERCENTILE VALUE FOR TODAY IN THE SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. DRYING  
BEGINS ABOVE 1,500 FEET MSL, AND THERE ARE MULTIPLE STABLE LAYERS  
BETWEEN 2,500 AND 7,000 FEET. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED  
SHOWERS THIS MORNING, MAINLY OVER THE DISTANT STRAITS THE THE GULF  
WATERS OFFSHORE OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. GIVE THE THERMODYNAMIC  
PROFILE AND THE PRESENCE OF AN EAST-WEST SURFACE RIDGE AXIS  
DIRECTLY OVER THE KEYS LATER TODAY, ISOLATED 10-PERCENT CONVECTIVE  
COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT WE CAN MUSTER THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS  
WELL BELOW THE 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE THAT WE NORMALLY SEE OVER  
THE KEYS THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AN EAST-WEST RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN  
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. IT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OVER THE  
KEYS LATE TODAY AND FRIDAY, EXTENDING THROUGH THE STRAITS ON  
SATURDAY BEFORE REACHING ITS SOUTHERNMOST LOCATION ALONG THE  
NORTH COAST OF CUBA ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE BACK NORTH  
ACROSS THE KEYS ON MONDAY, REACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA  
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.  
 
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT ONLY LIGHT TO GENTLE  
BREEZES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DURING TIMES WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS  
IS TO OUR NORTH, PREVAILING DIRECTIONS WILL BE EAST OR  
SOUTHEASTERLY. WHEN THE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD, EXPECT VARIABLE WIND  
DIRECTIONS. OVER THE WEEKEND, WHEN THE RIDGE IS TO OUR SOUTH, A  
TEMPORARY TURN TO SOUTHWEST OR WESTERLY BREEZES IS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
STEADY-STATE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS,  
MARKED BY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WITH BASES IN THE 020-030 RANGE.  
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF, PULSE SHOWER IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER  
TERMINAL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AND POTENTIAL DURATION TOO  
SHORT TO INCLUDE IN EITHER THE EYW OR MTH TAF AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ON THIS DATE IN 1878, A TROPICAL STORM PASSED ABOUT 100 MILES  
NORTH OF KEY WEST. KEY WEST RECORDED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 29.77"  
ALONG WITH A PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 36 MPH.  
 

 
   
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...HANER  
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....HANER  
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR  
 
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY  
 
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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST  
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST  
 
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