796
FXUS62 KKEY 230829
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
429 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2021
DISCUSSION
OVERNIGHT, RAINFALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT
LOWER THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED EARLIER THIS EVENING. THIS IS
LIKELY A PRODUCT OF COLLAPSING LOW-LEVEL WINDS, WEAKLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW, AND THE TROPOSPHERIC VERTICAL PROFILE BEING CONVECTIVELY
WORKED OVER AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. CIMSS
SATELLITE- DERIVED VORTICITY PRODUCT HIGHLIGHTS QUASISTATIONARY
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND CUBA. MIMIC TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT HIGHLIGHTS A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH, INCLUDING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY MODEST
INHIBITION AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE, THERE WILL ONLY BE WEAK
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
COMBINED WITH THE WEAK STEERING FLOW, HAVE ELECTED TO NUDGE POPS
DOWNWARD, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS
SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN NORMAL. WITH VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW, A CUMULUS CLOUD LINE CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
THERE REMAINS A QUESTION OF WHETHER THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SOLAR
INSOLATION FOR THIS TO OCCUR. ALL IN ALL, CONVECTIVE INITIATION
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE DECAYING OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED, SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED AS THIS
BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. THUS, CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE REDUCED
RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A POTENT TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK, REACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK FOR
POSSIBLE INCREASED RAIN AND THUNDER AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA.
ALTHOUGH DETAILS WILL BE IRONED OUT IN OTHER FORECAST CYCLES, VERY
COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS AND PERHAPS COOLER CONDITIONS MAY TRAIL
THIS FRONTAL FEATURE. STAY TUNED.
MARINE
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A WEAK, BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, WITH THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A
SWATH OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS, RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY,
RESULTING IN SPELLS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY CONVECTION.
THEREFORE, EXPLICIT MENTION IS LEFT OUT OF THE TAF'S. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST.
CLIMATE
IN 2005, A VIOLENT WATERSPOUT PASSED JUST WEST OF KEY WEST IN THE
OUTERMOST RAINBAND OF APPROACHING HURRICANE WILMA AT AROUND 4 PM.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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