926
FXUS62 KKEY 131827
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
127 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COOLER
WATERS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF, AND POTENTIALLY WITHIN THE
INTERIOR OF THE LARGER ISLANDS.
- WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY, PEAKING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE IN THE FORECAST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT, MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 122 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN UNDER A
NEBULOUS PRESSURE PATTERN, WHICH WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BREEZES THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING. MOISTURE
ADVECTING DOWN FROM THE MAINLAND, COUPLED WITH THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA, MAY BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS. THEREAFTER,
HIGH PRESSURE DIVING OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL
INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GULF
COAST SUNDAY, SUPPORTING FRESHENING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES. THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NUDGE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
KEYS MONDAY EVENING. A POTENT SURGE OF NORTHERLY BREEZES IS NOT
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT, BREEZES
WILL SLACKEN APPRECIABLY AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF BASIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE ARE WATCHING
FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH OFF THE MAINLAND LATE OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY
RESULT IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN. WATERS SURROUNDING THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS ARE RELATIVELY
WARMER AND MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL STRATUS FOR THESE TERMINALS.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE CIG/LOW STRATUS IMPACTS
AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 515 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN IN A REGION OF WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRADDLING CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH AN EXPANSIVE, WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. CLEAR SKIES, COUPLED WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS, HAVE SUPPORTED YET ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENT FOR THE FAVORED, LARGER, SHELTERED ISLAND COMMUNITIES.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS
(INCLUDING INTERIOR BIG PINE KEY), TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. GOES-16 DERIVED FOG PRODUCTS INDICATE AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA MAINLAND. GIVEN THE CURRENT NEAR-
CALM WINDS AND NEAR-ZERO DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS, WOULD FULLY EXPECT
SIMILAR PATCHY MARINE AND RADIATIONAL FOG TO EMERGE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS AND THE ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS TO
THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OVERALL, ENSEMBLE MEAN FIELDS FOR THE ARRAY OF GLOBAL NUMERICAL
WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. OUR FORECAST SUPPORTS THESE MINIMAL
CHANGES. QUIESCENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY,
SUPPORTING A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF WARM AFTERNOONS, MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES, NIL RAIN CHANCES, AND RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENTS AT NIGHT
(INCLUDING PATCHY FOG).
A NOW NEUTRALLY- TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
WILL SOMEWHAT DEAMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD TO THE GULF
COAST. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE STILL APPEARS TO OCCUR
ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY, WITH THE
SURFACE LOW THEN SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY. MOST ENSEMBLE MEAN FIELDS NOW KEEP THE BEST
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTENING WILL OCCUR, BUT BAROCLINICITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK AT
THE SURFACE. A BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, ALTHOUGH KEYS
RESIDENTS LOOKING FOR A BREAKING OF THE BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS YEAR WILL LIKELY BE DISAPPOINTED.
ONLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE AIR MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH WILL BE OF MID- LATITUDE ORIGINS, AND
THUS EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RETURN TO GENERAL WEAK RIDGING, COUPLED
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING A VERY DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
PROFILE, WILL YIELD ANOTHER WEEK OF NEAR-NIL RAIN CHANCES AND
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 62 76 68 79 / 10 0 10 10
MARATHON 63 75 68 77 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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