109
FXUS62 KKEY 101850
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
250 PM EDT FRI MAY 10 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT FRI MAY 10 2024
GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE IS DEPICTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WHICH IS IN TURN NUDGING THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS HAD US IN ITS GRASP FOR THE PAST WEEK
FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED SINCE THIS MORNING,
AND WINDS HAVE DROPPED A FEW KNOTS. TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE MID 70S AND WHEN COMBINED WITH LIGHTER WINDS, HAS MADE
FOR A VERY WARM, HUMID AFTERNOON FOR EARLY MAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THEN WILL STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. UNFORTUNATELY, WE
WILL FEEL MINIMAL, IF ANY, CHANGES TO OUR AIRMASS. WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH, ALLOWING FOR A FEW DEGREES DROP IN
DEW POINTS ON SUNDAY, BUT EVEN THIS WILL LIKELY NOT BE NOTICEABLE
SINCE DEW POINTS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. DRIER CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL START TO CREEP UP THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BUT
A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HAVE KEPT RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY RETURN BACK TO THE FORECAST AS POCKETS
OF MOISTURE PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS BEGINNING ON MONDAY. MOS
GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
BOOK-ENDED BY LOWER RAIN CHANCES. HAVE DECIDED TO DO A BROAD-
BRUSHED APPROACH, AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE SLUGS OF MOISTURE IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT IN 20% RAIN CHANCES
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY, THEN STALL
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH. A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WILL BLOCK
IT FROM ADVANCING ANY FURTHER. THIS SAME RIDGE WILL HELP MAINTAIN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES IN MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES NEXT
WEEK, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
HUMIDITY BECOMING OPPRESSIVE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY WHEN WINDS ARE
LIGHTER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT FRI MAY 10 2024
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENTLE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND THE COMPASS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE NEAR THE KEYS WATERS ON SUNDAY, THEN GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL RESUME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT FRI MAY 10 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH ISLAND TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH NIL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES. SURFACE
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING, BEFORE RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1963, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 61F WAS
RECORDED IN MARATHON. THIS IS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED IN MAY IN THE MARATHON AREA. TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATE
BACK TO 1951 FOR MAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 79 88 80 87 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 80 89 80 87 / 10 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...NB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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