372
FXUS62 KKEY 050800
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
400 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLIES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME GENTLE TO
MODERATE, AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- ELEVATED RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
MOIST CONFLUENT FLOW FEEDING INTO WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST IS CONTRIBUTING TO CONSIDERABLE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING.
THE KINEMATICS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS A SURFACE THROUGH LOWER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING
IN. ACROSS THIS LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS AND AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN EVIDENT ON LOCAL RADARS.
FOR THE TIME BEING, WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE EAST
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY SETTLING DOWN THROUGH THE MID 80S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 70S.
THE CONGESTION OCCURRING TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE
FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AS THE SURFACE
THROUGH LOWER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARDS
NORTH FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST. AS THE RIDGE DOE SO, EASTERLY
BREEZES WILL TREND UPWARDS, BECOMING GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH
AS A CUT OFF UPPER LOW SLOWLY LUMBERS ITS WAY WEST SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY
TROUGHY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH. IN ADDITION, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED. AS A RESULT, SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT
SEASONABLE NEAR 90 HIGHS, AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. DEW
POINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SLIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BECOMES MORE DOMINANT
THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, ALLOWING MOISTURE LEVELS TO FALL
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. IN ADDITION, THE LOWER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD, ALLOWING EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES TO RELAX TO A GENTLE BREEZES. NO TREND IN
TEMPERATURES OR DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
AN ATLANTIC HIGH CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDS
A RIDGE WEST SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD CLOSER TO THE CAROLINA COAST, WHILE ITS WESTERN
FLANK SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS A RESULT,
EASTERLY BREEZES WILL TREND UPWARDS, BECOMING MODERATE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO, AND HOLD THERE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. A
NUMBER OF SUBTLE LOWER LEVEL UNDULATIONS WITH CONTINUED HIGH
AVAILABLE WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. WITH THAT
SAID, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EASTERLIES, BECOMING GENTLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 92 81 92 83 / 40 10 60 60
MARATHON 90 81 90 83 / 40 40 50 50
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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