274
FXUS62 KKEY 250327
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1027 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES AND WELL-DEVELOPED SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.
-A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
SEASONABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
-THE NEXT, POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
THE MAIN STORY ACROSS THE CONUS IS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A RICH
PLUME OF MOISTURE ON ITS WESTERN FLANK CONTINUES TO HAMMER
CALIFORNIA WITH FLOODING RAINS AND FEET OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. CLOSER TO HOME, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACE A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF AMERICA. NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS AVERAGE 15 TO 18 KNOTS AT THE REEF, WITH MAGNITUDES A
FEW KNOTS LESS IN FLORIDA BAY AND THE GULF SIDE WATERS. THE 00Z
KKEY RAOB SAMPLED A DRY AND STABLE PROFILE. THE LACK OF SHOWERS ON
THE KBYX RADAR ARE NOT SURPRISING. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 AND A LITTLE LESS BREEZE THAN LAST NIGHT.
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THE INHERITED FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 953 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
COMPOSITE TROPOSPHERIC GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AND SURFACE PRESSURE
FIELD ANALYSIS DEPICTS A VERY AMPLIFIED, RELATIVELY STAGNANT
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH AN OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN, WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COAST
AND A SECOND TROUGH IN THE WEST-CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS
PLACES MOST OF THE UNITED STATES (INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS)
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE TROUGHS. AT THE SURFACE, A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTH
ATLANTIC TROUGH ALOFT, WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF BERMUDA PROVIDING MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES FOR THE KEYS. GOES-19 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DEPICTING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES ADJACENT TO THE ISLAND CHAIN, WITH LAND-
BASED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SAMPLING TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S AT THIS LATE MORNING HOUR OF CHRISTMAS EVE.
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY, AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD
AND WEAKEN, GRADIENT WINDS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND AND GRADUALLY
DECREASE. THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT KEY SAMPLED DECAYING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RELATIVE TO THE PAST 24-48 HOURS. COUPLED
WITH A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND VECTOR WITH HEIGHT,
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR-NIL FOR THE REST OF TODAY. HIGHS TODAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F, DEPENDING ON HOW EASTERLY
THE WINDS VEER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF MODEST UPTICK IN
WINDS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BASED ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE
MARINE OBSERVATIONS, NO CHANGES PROPOSED FOR THIS UPDATE CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
DUE TO SATELLITE DERIVED WIND ESTIMATES NEAR 20 KNOTS. FROM
SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
LEADING TO SLACKENING BREEZES. A POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH FRESHENING NORTHERLY BREEZES AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
VFR AND GENTLE NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 69 78 69 78 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 69 76 69 77 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GMZ052>055-
072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....CLR
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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