491
FXUS62 KKEY 120821
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
421 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TODAY,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.
- AFTER A FEW DAYS OF LIGHTER WINDS, BREEZES WILL BECOME MODERATE
TO FRESH OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM IN MOST AREAS FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WEATHER IS A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. KBYX
RADAR RETURNS ARE DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS PULSING UP AND DOWN
ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. ONE MANAGED TO FORM
DIRECTLY ON TOP OF KEY WEST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS HAVE A LIFE CYCLE OF ABOUT 30 MINUTES. THIS PULSE
OF MOISTURE WILL, AT LEAST, MAKE SURE ANOTHER WARM LOW RECORD IS
NOT BROKEN AT KEY WEST. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
MEASURING IN THE LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. BREEZES ALONG THE REEF ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHEASTERLIES. OVERALL, ONE CAN EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY
WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 F.
SYNOPTICALLY, FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE DEFINED BY A
DEEP ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. DESPITE THE MOISTURE
NEAR THE SURFACE, DRIER LAYERS OF AIR CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE
LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ARE WEAKENING AND MOVING
INTO THE ATLANTIC. FOR THE KEYS, THIS MEANS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS COLLAPSING. RESULTING WINDS ARE SLACKENING ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN, AND PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
MID- WEEK.
WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED. THE LACK OF A STRONG SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUGGESTS LOCAL FEATURES WILL BECOME MORE IMPORTANT, A PARADIGM
WHERE MODEL ENSEMBLES TYPICALLY STRUGGLE. IN ADDITION, A WEAK
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS SUGGESTS
STRONGER BREEZES ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE PENINSULA AND A
SHIFT TO WESTERLY WINDS. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE ARE
ENTERING THE WET SEASON. MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO MOVE DEEPER
LAYERS OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE KEYS LATE THIS WEEK. WE STILL HAVE A
BIT OF TIME BEFORE THE WET SEASON KICKS IN. IN THE MEANTIME, MAKE
SURE TO STAY HYDRATED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, BREEZES ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS THIS MORNING. THE LACK OF A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGESTS VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TOWARDS WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
LOCAL FRESHENING OF BREEZES NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE WHILE DRIER AIR MASSES LINGER OVER THE KEYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING TAF
PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE ON TRACK TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON, THEN NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNSET. SHORT LIVED
SHOWERS NEAR THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A TEMPO.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page