119
FXUS62 KKEY 070812
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
312 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS DECREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL, BUT
GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- NIL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS DRY
AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
IT'S BEEN A RATHER TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE
EFFECTS OF THE RECENT COLD AIR BLAST REMAIN EVIDENT IN MULTIPLE
WAYS. THE FIRST IS THE WINDS ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. WHERE WE
HAVE COOLER WATERS IN THE BAYSIDE/GULFSIDE, WINDS DROPPED
DRAMATICALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING YESTERDAY AND
TOOK ALMOST ALL NIGHT TO RECOVER. THIS DROP-OFF IN WINDS, COMBINED
WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL FURTHER THAN
GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED. THE BIG "WINNER" WAS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF BIG PINE KEY WHERE THE OBSERVATION WAS 45 DEGREES! OTHER ISLAND
COMMUNITIES FELL ONLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S BRIEFLY.
MEANWHILE, DRY AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA AND IS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION OFF THE RADAR FOR NOW.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S., WE
WILL INITIALLY SEE NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY BUT GRADUALLY
CLOCK TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH SETTLES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE DECENT NOCTURNAL
SURGE OVERNIGHT BEFORE WINDS UNDERGO A WAX AND WANE UNDULATION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA DURING THE WEEK AND MAY ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER MORE
EASTERLY. THIS WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE LESS THAN
THE 10 TO 20 DEGREES DEVIATIONS WE SAW WITH THE TWO MOST RECENT
COLD FRONT PASSAGES.
LOOKING AT THE 4-7 DAY TIME FRAME, THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF ANY MORE COLD FRONT PASSAGES, BUT THAT CAN ALWAYS
CHANGE. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WITH
GENERALLY AN EAST WIND AND GRADUALLY MODERATE TEMPERATURES WITH
NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
BREEZES HAVE FRESHENED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND EXPECTING BREEZES TO SLACKEN SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE TODAY. AS A HIGH PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT, WE WILL SEE ONE MORE DECENT NOCTURNAL
SURGE AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGER SWATH
OF OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THEREAFTER, THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
STALL ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND THEN EVENTUALLY
CONSOLIDATES OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT
BREEZES TO WAX AND WANE, PEAKING OVERNIGHT, AND GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH TERMINALS. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 6 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE WITH NIL RAIN CHANCES PREVAILING.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1978, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 48F WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 71 60 69 62 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 68 58 68 60 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page