981
FXUS62 KKEY 021512
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1112 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2020
DISCUSSION
WILL BE HARD TO GIN UP SHOWERS TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THIS
MORNING'S 12Z KEY BALLOON SOUNDING. THE SOUNDING SHOWED A
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUE OF 1.49", WHICH IS BELOW THE 25TH
PERCENTILE VALUE FOR TODAY IN THE SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. DRYING
BEGINS ABOVE 1,500 FEET MSL, AND THERE ARE MULTIPLE STABLE LAYERS
BETWEEN 2,500 AND 7,000 FEET. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING, MAINLY OVER THE DISTANT STRAITS THE THE GULF
WATERS OFFSHORE OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. GIVE THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE AND THE PRESENCE OF AN EAST-WEST SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
DIRECTLY OVER THE KEYS LATER TODAY, ISOLATED 10-PERCENT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT WE CAN MUSTER THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS
WELL BELOW THE 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE THAT WE NORMALLY SEE OVER
THE KEYS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MARINE
AN EAST-WEST RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. IT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OVER THE
KEYS LATE TODAY AND FRIDAY, EXTENDING THROUGH THE STRAITS ON
SATURDAY BEFORE REACHING ITS SOUTHERNMOST LOCATION ALONG THE
NORTH COAST OF CUBA ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE KEYS ON MONDAY, REACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT ONLY LIGHT TO GENTLE
BREEZES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DURING TIMES WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS
IS TO OUR NORTH, PREVAILING DIRECTIONS WILL BE EAST OR
SOUTHEASTERLY. WHEN THE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD, EXPECT VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS. OVER THE WEEKEND, WHEN THE RIDGE IS TO OUR SOUTH, A
TEMPORARY TURN TO SOUTHWEST OR WESTERLY BREEZES IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
STEADY-STATE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
MARKED BY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WITH BASES IN THE 020-030 RANGE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF, PULSE SHOWER IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER
TERMINAL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AND POTENTIAL DURATION TOO
SHORT TO INCLUDE IN EITHER THE EYW OR MTH TAF AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DATE IN 1878, A TROPICAL STORM PASSED ABOUT 100 MILES
NORTH OF KEY WEST. KEY WEST RECORDED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 29.77"
ALONG WITH A PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 36 MPH.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...HANER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....HANER
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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