628
FXUS62 KKEY 300815
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
415 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
- DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB NOTICEABLY INTO THE MID 70S FRIDAY NIGHT.
- LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, WITH A BRIEF GENTLE TO MODERATE PICKUP HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A WETTER
PATTERN IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY BEGINNING SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WEAK DEEP LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL OF KEYS WEATHER THIS
MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS
WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE STRETCHING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
MEANWHILE THE KEYS ARE UNDER THE DESCENDING BRANCH OF AN UPPER
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALIGNED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. WHILE
SOME MOISTENING TOOK PLACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS, THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR AND A SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE BASED JUST
ABOVE 850 MB. CAPE WAS LIMITED WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.11
INCHES. SURFACE MOISTURE HAS ALSO BEEN LIMITED WITH DEW POINTS
NEAR TO JUST BELOW 70. CONSEQUENTLY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NEARLY
NONEXISTENT FOR MUCH OF THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH LIGHT AND VARYING BREEZES PERSISTING. NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S, LOWS IN THE MID 70S, AND DEW
POINTS AROUND 70. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST BROAD
INHIBITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES NIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND AS
A MID LATITUDE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IN
RESPONSE A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
CONSOLIDATE ACROSS CUBA AND RESULT IN FRESHENING SOUTHERLY BREEZES
ACROSS THE KEYS. EXPECT SURFACE DEW POINTS TO SURGE UPWARDS,
REACHING INTO THE MID 70S BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
CLIMB SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS LIKELY
STRUGGLING TO FALL INTO THE 70S. DESPITE THE WARMING AND MOISTENING,
RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY REMAIN LOW DUE TO THE STILL PRESENT
INHIBITION.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON SATURDAY WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAVE THE KEYS IN A NEBULOUS PRESSURE
FIELD, WEAKENING BREEZES AND LINGERING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE GULF
AND FLORIDA ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BROAD DEEP LAYERED
TROUGHING WILL JUST REACH DOWN TO OUR LATITUDE AND SET UP
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WHILE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST
SETUP WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH, IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BEAR
WATCHING. FOR NOW, WILL ADVERTISE MID TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER BACK THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS
THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS OUT, REPLACED BY BUILDING
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING. THE PRESSURE FIELD WILL REMAIN
UNINTERESTING, HOLDING A STAGNANT AIRMASS. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EXTENDS
A WEAK RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS IS RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES ACROSS KEYS WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. THINGS WILL CHANGE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE CONSOLIDATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA. MEANWHILE, WEAK TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN AS
IT MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. CONSEQUENTLY,
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL BUILD IN BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
SURGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL
CONSOLIDATE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUE MOVING AWAY WHILE
THE SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
KEYS IN A NEBULOUS PRESSURE FIELD AND RETURN KEYS WATERS TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BREEZES. SHOWER AND THUNDER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
CREEP IN THIS WEEKEND, AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING MID LATITUDE TROUGH AND MUCH
HIGHER DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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