811
FXUS62 KKEY 240253
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1053 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS DECREASE ACROSS
THE WESTERN HAWK CHANNEL, FLORIDA STRAITS, AND SOUTHEAST GULF
WATERS.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, AND WILL
PEAK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS QUICKLY RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1051 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
THERE WAS A BRIEF FLARE-UP OF ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AS SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW.
THESE SHOWERS MOVED FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS, BRIEFLY INTENSIFIED INTO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, THEN PETERED OUT. SINCE THEN WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS REACHED A MINIMUM AND
HAS GREATEST SHRUNK IN COVERAGE. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WHICH IS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. SURPRISINGLY, DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE MORE
COMFORTABLE SIDE, RANGING FROM 50S IN THE UPPER KEYS, TO LOWER 60S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS CENTERED JUST OUTSIDE OF AOR TO
THE WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS. THIS FEATURE STILL HAS TO PIVOT
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THERE'S STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF ENERGY AND
MOISTURE BALLED UP WITH THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION THAT IT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH PEAK NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, HAVE NOT
GIVEN UP ON OUR RAIN CHANCES JUST YET. OTHERWISE, AS A HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE KEYS, WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THEIR GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
GENERALLY MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. WEST OF THE BRIDGE, WE
CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH BREEZES. THEREFORE,
HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THE
WESTERNMOST HAWK, WESTERN STRAITS, AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS
FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING A GRADUAL
SLACKENING OF BREEZES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD SEE GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES BY DAWN ACROSS ALL WATERS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH. OTHERWISE, EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BE SLACKENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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