617
FXUS62 KKEY 301746
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
146 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
- DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB NOTICEABLY INTO THE MID 70S BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
- LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, WITH A BRIEF GENTLE TO MODERATE PICKUP HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A WETTER
PATTERN IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY BEGINNING SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH NIL RAIN CHANCES. LIGHT NEAR SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, BECOMING VARIABLE AT
TIMES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 959 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETREAT INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON, AS A WEAK LOW PUSHES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLIES
BECOMING VARIABLE. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, LIKELY SUPPORTING A SHORT PERIOD
OF GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES. WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN
AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLATTENS. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF COUPLED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ELEVATED RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH LIGHT AND VARYING BREEZES PERSISTING. NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S, LOWS IN THE MID 70S, AND DEW
POINTS AROUND 70. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST BROAD
INHIBITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES NIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND AS
A MID LATITUDE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IN
RESPONSE A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
CONSOLIDATE ACROSS CUBA AND RESULT IN FRESHENING SOUTHERLY BREEZES
ACROSS THE KEYS. EXPECT SURFACE DEW POINTS TO SURGE UPWARDS,
REACHING INTO THE MID 70S BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
CLIMB SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS LIKELY
STRUGGLING TO FALL INTO THE 70S. DESPITE THE WARMING AND MOISTENING,
RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY REMAIN LOW DUE TO THE STILL PRESENT
INHIBITION.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON SATURDAY WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAVE THE KEYS IN A NEBULOUS PRESSURE
FIELD, WEAKENING BREEZES AND LINGERING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE GULF
AND FLORIDA ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BROAD DEEP LAYERED
TROUGHING WILL JUST REACH DOWN TO OUR LATITUDE AND SET UP
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WHILE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST
SETUP WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH, IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BEAR
WATCHING. FOR NOW, WILL ADVERTISE MID TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER BACK THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS
THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS OUT, REPLACED BY BUILDING
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING. THE PRESSURE FIELD WILL REMAIN
UNINTERESTING, HOLDING A STAGNANT AIRMASS. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 85 76 86 79 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 84 76 86 79 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page