144
FXUS62 KKEY 290306
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1106 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
- GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY,
EXASPERATING EXISTING MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 941 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA HAS KEPT WEATHER CONDITIONS
MOSTLY UNREMARKABLE THROUGH THIS EVENING SHIFT EXCLUDING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. AROUND 6 PM, AN AREA OF SHOWERS PUSHED OFF OF THE
CAPE SABLE AREA, AND TRACKED OVER THE BAYSIDE AND GULFSIDE WATERS.
EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING HAD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID
AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR, THE NEIGHBORING KMFL SOUNDING SHOWED SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE. IT'S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT OUR RADIOSONDE
SAMPLED AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WAS UNREPRESENTATIVE OF THE
ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING THROUGH. THE WIND
PROFILE FROM OUR SOUNDING SHOWED WINDS BACKING FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE LOWER LEVELS, WHICH WOULD PLACE THE
RADIOSONDE WELL TO OUR WEST AND AWAY FROM THESE SHOWERS.
THE CURRENT RADAR LOOP FROM OUR KBYX RADAR SHOWS THESE SHOWERS
ARE STILL PROGRESSING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG A DISORGANIZED LINE
STRETCHING FROM COSGROVE SHOAL LIGHT TO CAPE ROMANO. THERE ISN'T
REALLY ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF THIS ACTIVITY. SATELLITE DERIVED
PWATS SHOW NEARLY AN INCH OF WATER UP TO 700MB ACROSS THE AREA,
AND WE KNOW THAT THESE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ABLE TO WORK WITH
THIS. WITH WIND DIRECTION VARYING BETWEEN NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST,
THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ELEMENT OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
MAY JUST BE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE INHERITED 10 PERCENT POPS FOR
TONIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS, CALM WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST. NO CHANGES OR
UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 941 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH SLIDES INTO
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK, BREEZES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MAINLY SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH BREEZES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 941 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
A MESSY CLUSTER OF SHOWERS PASSING TO THE NORTH OF EYW MAY LEAD TO
A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AS THIS ACTIVITY CLEARS OUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN, AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 85 76 85 75 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 84 76 84 76 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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