633
FXUS62 KKEY 271926
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
226 PM EST MON JAN 27 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST MON JAN 27 2025
IT HAS BEEN AN OVERALL PLEASANT DAY FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN WAXING AND WANING AT TIMES PROVIDING SOME IF NOT ALL OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH BOUTS OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE MID 70S WITH A LIGHT WIND GENERALLY FROM THE EAST. AN
ALREADY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA IS LOSING DEFINITION AND FURTHER WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS LED TO NOT ONLY OUR GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT THE
SLACKENING OF THE WINDS AS WELL. KBYX RADAR WHICH DID SHOW SHOWERS
THIS MORNING HAS GONE QUIET THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST
FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE, NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE OR NEEDED TO
BE HONEST. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OUR OVERALL
GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET. WE CAN
EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES REACH TO NEAR AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
JANUARY.
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL FEATURE A SERIES OF RIDGES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION, DIFFERING IN SIZE, STRENGTH, AND PLACEMENT. THE
FIRST ONE WHICH WE'VE ALREADY MENTIONED WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRACT
AND SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT RIDGE MOVING IN FROM ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. IN RESPONSE WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS
THE NORTH AND WE COULD A LITTLE BIT OF DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. THAT BEING SAID, I EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY'S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PEAKING
NEAR THE MID 70S AND DEW POINTS COULD BE A TOUCH LOWER.
THIS NEXT RIDGE WILL BECOME COMPRESSED AND STRETCHED POLEWARD
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS IS MOVES INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
INITIALLY THIS WILL LEAD TO A COLLAPSE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR AREA AND WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS THE FEATURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS CLOCKING
AROUND TO THE EAST AND FRESHENING. THE STRONGEST OF THIS
FRESHENING SHOULD STAY OUT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
THE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EJECT EASTWARD, MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO SURGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE. THIS FRONT WILL LOSE ALMOST ALL OF ITS
MOMENTUM PRIOR TO ARRIVING TO THE KEYS AND AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY IMPACTS. IN FACT, IT LOOKS TO RUN OUT OF STEAM, SUCH
THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DRY SEASON PATTERN WITH NEAR NIL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST MON JAN 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.
THIS WILL CONTINUE A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EASTWARD THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, BREEZES WILL VEER EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. AN APPROACHING PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH ON
SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO A COL ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BREEZES POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST MON JAN 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 65 73 64 74 / 5 0 0 0
MARATHON 64 74 63 74 / 5 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....11
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page