315
FXUS62 KKEY 090254
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1054 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE SAL
IS ON TRACK TO LIFT OUT OF THE KEYS BY THE WEEKEND.
- HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN THIS WEEK. HEAT INDICES
MAY CREEP TOWARDS 110 BEFORE THE WEEKEND.
- SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK
WHILE A LOW IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
KEYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
GENERALLY UNREMARKABLE WEATHER HAS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS THIS EVENING COURTESY OF RIDGING DRAPED OVER THE REGION.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN SHOW TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 80S WITH HEAD INDICES ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 90S
TO NEAR 100F. THE SILVER LINING, FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, IS THAT THE
BREEZE OUTSIDE IS KEEPING THINGS FROM FEELING TOO STUFFY. THE ASOS
AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 15 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. FARTHER UP THE ISLAND
CHAIN, MARATHON IS ALSO SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 MPH, BUT
GUSTS HAVE BEEN LESS FREQUENT. OVERALL, A LITTLE WARM, BUT THIS
WOULD FEEL A LOT WORSE IF THE AIR WASN'T MOVING LIKE THIS.
GOES-19 DUST INDICATES THERE IS SOME SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL)
ACROSS THE AREA, AND THIS EXPLAINS THE LACK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
OUR KBYX RADAR. TYPICALLY, THE UPPER AIR SOUNDING WOULD ALSO SHOW
SAL IN THE AREA WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LAYERS, BUT OUR
00Z KKEY SOUNDING FROM THIS EVENING SAMPLED NOTABLE DRY AIR FROM
AROUND 900MB UP TO 600MB. THE SAL IS IN THERE SOMEWHERE, BUT THERE
IS ALSO SOME REGULAR DRY AIR TOO. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THE
INHERITED NONEXISTENT POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. RADIATIONAL COOLING IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ELEVATED
WINDS, AND THE FIELD OF FAIR WEATHER CLOUD COVER NOTED ON GOES-19
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THEREFORE, THE ADVERTISED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 80S ARE ON
TRACK TO VERIFY.
NO CHANGES ARE PROPOSED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL
WATERS, EXCLUDING FLORIDA BAY, DUE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BREEZES. MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL HOLD
STEADY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN ATLANTIC RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL TEND TO PEAK IN THE
EVENINGS AND LULL SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY. BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
EASE BACK GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDER
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT OR LESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT TREND
SHARPLY UPWARDS LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
WESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
CLOUDS BASED BETWEEN FL025 AND 035 WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS AT BOTH TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY EYW, THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF
OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUD FIELD
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS IS MOVING SWIFTLY, AND ANY MVFR OBSERVATIONS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED, MINIMIZING ANY IMPACTS. SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS OF NEAR 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST,
SO CROSSWIND CONCERNS ARE VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT. WEATHER WILL
REMAIN DRY ONSITE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 84 91 83 91 / 10 0 20 30
MARATHON 84 90 83 90 / 0 0 30 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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