244
FXUS62 KKEY 021412
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1012 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE AND OFTEN VARIABLE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL TREND UPWARDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, PEAKING AROUND WEDNESDAY.
- AFTER SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD TREND DOWNWARDS TO NEAR NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
MORNING ACROSS THE KEYS OPENED WITH RATHER UNASSUMING WEATHER.CLOUD
COVER IS MUCH MORE DIFFUSE PER GOES EAST SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH
DID ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP A BIT MORE OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, CLEAR SKIES WILL NOT HELP HOW IT FEELS
OUTDOORS. DEW POINTS LINGER IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE KEYS CONTINUES TO BE STAGNANT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE MORNING KKEY
SOUNDING SAMPLED AN ENVIRONMENT WITH NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PWAT,
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DAY. AMIDST THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE, THE SURFACE TO 10 KFT MEAN LAYER WIND WAS CALCULATED AS
WEAKER THAN 3 KNOTS. WEATHER MAY APPEAR IDEAL ACROSS THE KEYS,
EXCEPT THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SUGGEST CLOUD LINES MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA MAY ALSO SEND BOUNDARIES INTO THE UPPER KEYS. IN LIGHT OF
THESE CONDITIONS, THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED. BE ON
THE LOOKOUT FOR A POSSIBLE CLOUD LINE THIS AFTERNOON!
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST TODAY, LEADING TO WINDS
BEING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE COMBINATION OF A SMALL HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND DAY TIME HEATING OVER THE
MAINLAND SHOULD FORCE WINDS NORTHWESTERLY FOR MOST ISLAND
LOCATIONS. CLOUD LINE CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AND
MAINLAND ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A FAIR CHANCE OF AFFECTING THE UPPER
KEYS. THE WEAK FLOW AND SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
UP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE MID
70S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL
TREND UPWARDS TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS DUE TO THE SWATH OF
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS OUR AREA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STEADILY PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE KEYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
LIKELY PEAK MID WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY REACHES SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS AND THE TAIL END OF THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGH SCRAPS BY OUR
AREA. IN ADDITION, SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAY BE PRESENT AT
THE SAME TIME, FURTHER SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PUSH
PAST THE KEYS AS ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND SURFACE TROUGHING LIFTS OUT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST. DEW POINTS AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TREND DOWNWARDS, BUT
HOW FAR DEPENDS HOW FAR THE SURFACE HIGH IS ABLE TO PRESS ACROSS
OUR AREA. ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
REMAINING QUITE HIGH AND POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING
INTO FLORIDA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS. A SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD OFF OF
THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
KEEP A WEAK AND NARROW SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE
KEYS, RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES ON KEYS WATERS.
EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL SHOWER CHANCES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO CONSIDERABLE DEEP MOISTURE. FROM MID WEEK
AND BEYOND, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OFF OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND BRING ABOUT MODEST FRESHENING NORTHEAST
TO EASTERLY BREEZES AND RAIN CHANCES SLIPPING BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMS BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SUGGEST CLOUD LINES COULD BE A PROBLEM
THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IF A
CLOUD LINE DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 81 88 78 / 30 40 60 70
MARATHON 88 81 87 78 / 30 40 60 70
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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