605
FXUS62 KKEY 280302
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1002 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS
WEEKEND.
- A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SINKING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FROM CANADA IS FORECAST TO FRESHEN BREEZES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 10:00 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
CLEAR SKIES PRIOR TO SUNSET QUICKLY BECAME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A
MIX OF A LITTLE STRAITS CUMULUS MOVING NORTHWEST AND AN ELEVATED
DECK ABOVE 5K FEET IN A THIN LAYER. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID
70S WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS...NOT TYPICAL FARE AS WE HEAD FOR THE
CLOSE OF FEBRUARY. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
WERE OCCURRING, AND A STEADY 8 TO 13 KNOTS OUT ON THE REEF.
THE EVENING SOUNDING AT KEY WEST SHOWED A NEARLY SATURATED BASE
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A MOISTURE LAYER NEAR 900 MB, HELPING
SUPPORT A 1.15 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER ALMOST EXACTLY MATCHING THE
GOES ESTIMATES. POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE WERE NOTED TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND TO THE NORTHWEST, THE LATTER BEING CLOSER TO THE
APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
500 MB HEIGHT FALLS WERE A SINGLE DECAMETER ALOFT. LOW TO MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS WERE NEAR THE MEANS FOR THE DATE ALTHOUGH COLUMN
MOISTURE WAS A LITTLE ABOVE.
TONIGHT, THE SITUATION INVOLVES HOW MUCH EROSION OF THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL OCCUR TO HALT THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE INTO A LIGHT OR LIGHT NORTHERLY
WIND OVER THE LOWER TO MIDDLE KEYS. SOME MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS
JUMPING ON THE NEAR SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE SUB-1K
FOOT CLOUD BASES AND FOG, BUT AT PRESENT FEEL THIS MAY BE MORE OF
THE POSSIBILITY FOR GULF WATERS OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH, BUT NOT THE
RELATIVELY WARMER EASTERN FLORIDA BAY, NEARSHORE KEYS AND STRAITS.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NIGHT
ESPECIALLY IF A BOUNDARY LAYER DRAFT OUT OF THE NORTH OCCURS...A
COOL GULF SHELF-WATERS BREEZE, IF YOU WILL. OTHERWISE THE SAME
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAD EARLIER OCCASIONALLY SUPPORTED SHALLOW
SHOWERS FROM VERY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE
CURRENT 10 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE INTACT OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 10:00 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
THIS EVENING, WINDS WERE EAST TO SOUTHEAST 8 TO 13 KNOTS ALONG THE
REEF, AND CLOSER TO 5 KNOTS ON THE GULFSIDE. SEAS AT SATAN SHOAL
WERE JUST UNDER 2 FEET FROM THE EAST WITH A 6 SECOND PERIOD. A
RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IS PULLING FURTHER EAST WHILE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE FEATURES WILL PLACE THE KEYS IN A COL REGION BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, EXPECT SLACKENING
BREEZES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH VARIABLE DIRECTIONS AT TIMES.
DESPITE MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION, AN UNFAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BUT INCREASE CHANCES AT NIGHT. THEREAFTER, A BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FRESHENING BREEZES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 10:00 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
A NEARLY-SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT LOWER CLOUD BASES
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, WITH FEW TO SCATTERED BASES FL012-015 HAVING
BEEN DETECTED AT THE FLORIDA KEYS TERMINALS AND OCEAN REEF
AIRPORT. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL WITH A SECONDARY CLOUD DECK FL050-060
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TOWARD MORNING, BUT
THERE ARE NO PRESENT INDICATIONS WARRANTING A VICINITY SHOWER
MENTION AT EITHER EYW NOR MTH. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 5
TO 10 KNOTS MAY BECOME 5 KNOTS OR LESS AND BACK QUICKLY NORTHWARD
AT EYW, AND OWING TO THE LIGHT SPEEDS VARIABLE WINDS WERE
INDICATED AFTER 28/0800Z. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY TO RESUME AFTER 28/1400Z.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JR
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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