530
FXUS62 KKEY 161803
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
103 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
-COOLER AND VERY DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN NIL RAIN CHANCES TODAY.
-EXPECT STEADY MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN COOLER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL.
-ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
-A POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH NIL RAIN CHANCES. NEAR-SURFACE WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLACKEN.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 428 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOW A BROAD DEEP MEAN LAYER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. DEEP MEAN LAYER RIDGING
EXISTS WEST OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COAST WITH THE RIDGE
NUDGING NORTH INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN CURRENTLY ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED (MERIDIONAL). AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
SINCE WE STILL HAVE A HEALTHY PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY THIS
MORNING, MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE RECORDING NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
OCCASIONALLY REACHING 25 TO 28 KNOTS. GOES 19 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER (TPW) LOOKS MUCH DIFFERENT EARLY THIS MORNING WHEN COMPARED
TO JUST 24 HOURS AGO WITH ESTIMATED PWATS OF 0.2 INCHES TO 0.5
INCHES THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. THE HIGHEST VALUES WERE ESTIMATED TO
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STRAITS. WITH ALL THIS DRY AIR AROUND,
KBYX RADAR IS NOT DETECTING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. GOES 19 NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE ONLY CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH CONTINUES MOVING OFF
TO THE SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS WERE ALSO MID LEVEL AROUND 4000 FT OR
SO. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE QUITE COLD RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE UPPER KEYS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS.
FORECAST
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAPIDLY
SLACKENING BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT COLLAPSES.
VAST DRY AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NIL FOR TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY MANAGE TO REACH THE MID
60S AND THIS MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY TO EVEN AFTER SUNSET. AFTER
THE SUN COMES UP THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY CONTINUE
TO COOL SOME ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS BEFORE MODERATING.
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT, THE WIND WILL HELP TO
KEEP THE AIR MORE MODERATED TONIGHT WHICH MAY INHIBIT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING ALL THAT MUCH. AS OF NOW, CURRENT THINKING IS
TEMPERATURES MAY STAY FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM LATE DAYTIME HIGHS.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER OUT INTO THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT
MOISTURE RETURN IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT LEADING TO SLIGHT CHANCES
(10%) IN THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MOISTURE RETURN WILL
BE MOSTLY SHALLOW AND MIGHT NOT BE MORE THAN JUST AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER. THE MOISTURE BECOMES A BIT DEEPER FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN 20% POPS.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR ANOTHER FRONT TO PRESS
THROUGH THE KEYS SOMETIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON/LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS,
AND A DIP IN HUMIDITY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, A RATHER LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE BREEZES ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SCARCE WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY, IF ANY, REMAINING ACROSS THE STRAITS. IT IS NOT UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE MOISTURE MIGHT BE ABLE TO CREEP
JUST FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT THE ISLAND CHAIN. DUE TO THIS,
SLIGHT CHANCES ARE NOW IN THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL ALSO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE SLACKENED AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR RESIDUAL ELEVATED SEAS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
FLORIDA FIRST COAST WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD. THIS WILL SUPPORT
RAPIDLY SLACKENING BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH BREEZES
CONTINUING TO CLOCK TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES IN
ITS WAKE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 64 73 67 74 / 20 10 20 10
MARATHON 65 75 67 75 / 10 20 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page