710
FXUS62 KKEY 140240
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1040 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WETTER PATTERN IS SETTING UP, AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL SLIGHT, BUT THE BEST
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
- MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN. BURN
BANS ARE POSSIBLE, TREES AND BUSHES BEGIN BROWNING, AND WATER
SUPPLY DECREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AREA MAY NOT HAVE KNOWN
THAT TODAY IS FRIDAY THE 13TH AS WE HAVE SEEN A FAIRLY BENIGN
EVENING! OUR KBYX RADAR HAS NOT DETECTED ANY METEOROLOGICAL
RETURNS WITHIN OUR CWA, BUT IT DID CAPTURE THE EXPANSIVE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MAINLAND. DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ARE STILL PREVALENT ACROSS THE STATE, INCLUDING THE KEYS, SO THIS
ACTIVITY WAS MUCH NEEDED. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE SITTING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF OUR ATMOSPHERE, WE HAVEN'T
HAD MUCH IN TERMS OF A LIFTING MECHANISM TO ENCOURAGE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITH THAT BEING SAID, OUR RADAR IS GOOD AT DETECTING
LINGERING GHOST BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA, AND THERE SEEMS TO BE
ONE SETTING UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, CROSSING OVER
THE MIDDLE KEYS. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MAINLAND SHOWERS MAY COLLIDE WITH THIS BOUNDARY, AND TRIGGER SOME
SHOWERS TONIGHT. IN FACT, AS WE ARE TYPING THIS, A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE JUST INITIATED OVER FLORIDA BAY. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING
SHOWED AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT WE
HAVE ALMOST BEEN WAITING IN LIMBO FOR SOME LIFT. ALL OF THIS IS TO
SAY THAT THE 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ADVERTISED FOR TONIGHT
SEEMS REASONABLE, AND WE WILL OPT TO CARRY THAT THROUGH THIS
UPDATE.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED, AND CHANGES ARE
NOT NEEDED WITH THIS EVENING UPDATE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO FRESHENING MAINLY SOUTHEAST
BREEZES. ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHEAST BREEZES CLOCKING AROUND THE COMPASS BECOMING NORTHWEST
TO NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE ALSO FRESHENING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD, BUT
NIGHTTIME SHOWERS MAY LEAD TO OCCASIONAL, SHORT LIVED OBSERVATIONS
OF MVFR CIGS AT EITHER TERMINAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
IN THE GENERALY FORECAST, BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING HYPERLOCAL
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS STILL LOW, SO OPTING TO KEEP VCSH AND VCTS OUT
OF THE TAFS UNTIL ACTIVE WEATHER TRENDS CAN BE EVALUATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 73 83 74 84 / 30 50 50 60
MARATHON 74 82 75 82 / 30 50 50 60
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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