155
FXUS62 KKEY 201759
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
159 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ONLY UP TO 10% FOR EACH FORECAST PERIOD.
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY, BUT WE MAY SEE
HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105F, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE UPPER KEYS,
THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL BUT
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH LEAVES MENTION OF VCSH OUT OF
THE TAFS. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THOUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1137 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A BROAD, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC AND
ACROSS THE GULF BASIN WILL FRACTURE INTO TWO CELLS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A WEAKENING PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AT TIMES STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER, THE TWO HIGH PRESSURE CELLS WILL MERGE
AND BRIEFLY BUILD, ALLOWING BREEZES TO FRESHEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AGAIN WITH
LIGHTER BREEZES RETURNING TUESDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WE HAD QUITE A BIT MORE EXCITEMENT IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
HOUR OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION SPILLED OFF THE MAINLAND AND
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. UNFORTUNATELY, NONE
OF THE PRECIPITATION MADE IT TO THE KEYS THEMSELVES. GIVEN THAT WE
WERE UNDER A WEAKENED PRESSURE FIELD, THE MESOSCALE FORCES TOOK
CHARGE AND WE BRIEFLY SAW A SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLIES. THIS WAS
VERY SHORT LIVED AND THE WINDS HAVE ALREADY CLOCKED BACK AROUND
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE NORTHEAST WINDS WE SAW WERE TOO BRIEF TO
EVEN NUDGE OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN AND KEY WEST IS ON TRACK TO TIE
ANOTHER WARM LOW TEMPERATURE. WE DID ACTUALLY SEE DEW POINTS FALL
A FEW POINTS AND BRIEFLY DIPPED TO THE MID 70S.
THE ONLY CHANGES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS IS THAT A BROAD RIDGE THE
LIES FROM THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE GULF BASIN IS
FRACTURING INTO TWO SMALLER CELLS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL
CONSOLIDATE MONDAY AND BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED IT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AGAIN WITH WINDS COMING BACK
DOWN.
MEANWHILE, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE INCREDIBLY LIMITED TO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRIER AIR AND DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE ABOVE
THIS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE CONSOLIDATES ON MONDAY,
WE COULD SEE POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PIVOT IN AT
TIMES. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT (10 TO 20
PERCENT) AT BEST NEXT WEEK. DESPITE NO AIR MASS CHANGES OCCURRING
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, DEW POINTS MAY COME A FEW DEGREES
NEXT WEEK.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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