085
FXUS62 KKEY 220905
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
405 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING BREEZES LIGHT TO GENTLE WITH NIL
RAIN CHANCES.
-A BROAD CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN MODERATELY STRENGTHENING
BREEZES AND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES EARLY TO MID WEEK.
-THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE NEXT
WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. CONSEQUENTLY TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
BROADLY NEAR NORMAL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ALONG THE KEYS THIS MORNING. A WEAKENING
SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IS
DRIVING LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE
KEYS. A FORMERLY ROBUST UPPER RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA HAS ALMOST
ENTIRELY FLATTENED OUT. HOWEVER, LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINS, ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED STABLE AND DRY MID LEVELS.
RADAR IMAGERY HAS BEEN NEARLY SHOWER FREE, WITH ALL ACTIVITY FOUND
OFF THE CUBAN COAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES, BUT DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70.
EXPECT SUBTLE SHIFTS IN LOCAL WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT
IS SQUEEZED BY A MID LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO ITS NORTH AND
DAY TIME HEATING OVER FLORIDA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE BREEZES
TO SLACKEN A BIT FURTHER AND BACK NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
WHILE HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES, IT SHOULD HELP TO PUSH
DEW POINTS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR
ZERO IN THE KEYS DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND STILL LINGERING WARM
AND DRY LOWER TO MID LEVELS.
A COMPLICATED CUT OFF LOW PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL BE
REFLECTED IN A SHARP UPPER RIDGE RIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY, A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND AS IT DRIVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NOTABLE INCREASE IN EASTERLY BREEZES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE WARM AND DRY MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS OUR AREA, THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO BUMP UP
DEW POINTS ABOVE 70 WITH TEMPERATURES EDGING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
MOISTEN AND DEEPEN QUITE A BIT BY TUESDAY. THIS ALONG WITH A
VEERING PROFILE JUSTIFIES MAINTAINING AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEK AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
COLLAPSE AND WINDS WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY, POSSIBLY BECOMING
VARIABLE. STILL, NO MAJOR SHIFTS TO LOCAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SENSITIVITY OF OUR WEATHER TO THE TIMING,
SHAPE, AND POSITIONING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER STREAMLINES IN THIS
SCENARIO, IT IS TO EARLY TO BE TO DEFINITIVE.
IT HAS BEEN QUITE A WHILE SINCE THE LAST COLD FRONT AND FINALLY
THERE ARE GLIMMERS OF ONE ON THE HORIZON. WHILE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
QUITE INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND BEHAVIOR OF THE NEXT FRONT,
THERE IS POTENTIAL ONE MAY ARRIVE LATE ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SURGE OUT OF THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS AND
WINDS MAY QUICKLY VEER NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS FLORIDA WILL WEAKEN FURTHER WITH
DAY TIME HEATING. THIS WILL ALLOW GENTLE BREEZES TO SLACKEN TO A
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES. ALSO, WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK NORTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND PREDOMINANTLY
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL TRACK
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING
IN FRESHENING NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BREEZES. CAUTIONS MAY BE
REQUIRED MAINLY FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY.
THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC, AND
BY LATE WEDNESDAY THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN
CONSIDERABLY, ALLOWING FOR RELAXING BREEZE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS WITH DRY
WEATHER IN PLACE. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY FEW
CLOUDS NEAR FL030, AND NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2006, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 55F WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1872.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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