817
FXUS62 KKEY 010804
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
404 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MID 70S DEW POINTS WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY
NIGHT.
- LIGHT AND VERY BROADLY SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL TODAY,
WITH A FAIRLY SHORT LIVED GENTLE TO MODERATE PICKUP TONIGHT,
LASTING INTO SATURDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A WETTER
PATTERN IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR NOW. THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS A
PRODUCT OF SURFACE THROUGH LOWER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA
AND THE DESCENDING BRAND OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNNING ACROSS
THE GULF. LAST EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED QUITE A BIT OF WARM AND
DRY AIR BASED AT A LOW 950 MB. CONSEQUENTLY, LOCAL RADARS HAVE
BEEN PRECIPITATION FREE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY, LEADING TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES
ACROSS THE KEYS. THIS MORE VEERED FLOW SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE LOWER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA FOR THE SHORT TERM AND
MAINTAIN A STABLE ATMOSPHERE.
OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
A MID LATITUDE TROUGH BEGINS SWINGING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. INITIALLY A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT, LEADING TO A SHORT
SPELL OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY BREEZES. THIS VEERED FLOW WILL BRING
IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO EDGE SLIGHTLY UPWARDS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
STRUGGLING TO DIP BELOW 80 AND DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID
70S. THE WIND SURGE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY AS THE BULK
OF THE TROUGHS LIFTS OUT, LEAVING A NEBULOUS PRESSURE PATTERN
ACROSS THE KEYS. CONTINUED INHIBITION WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE AS THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE IS SHOVED
EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA BY THE AMPLIFYING MID LATITUDE TROUGH.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE LONG LASTING PERIOD OF STABLE WEATHER WILL
END AS THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, LEAVING
A BROAD ZONE OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND CONFLUENT FLOW THROUGH THE
LOWER LEVELS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. LATER ON SUNDAY A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PARTIALLY PHASE WITH THE MID
LATITUDE TROUGH AND PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. THE
PRIMARY NEGATIVES ARE THE SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK,
DOMINATED BY DIURNAL AND MESOSCALE FEATURES, AND AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE KEYS.
WITH THAT SAID, THE OVERALL SETUP SUPPORTS AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEAK THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
LIFT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, FOLLOWED UP BY BUILDING DEEP LAYERED
RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF AND CARIBBEAN SEA. THROUGH THIS, SHOWER
AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SLIM CHANCES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL MID WEEK WHERE
PREVAILING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLIES BUILD BACK IN AS AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MODEST HUMIDITY EARLY IN THE WEEK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLIES BUILD IN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
A WEAK PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL RETREAT FURTHER
EASTWARD TODAY, KEEPING BREEZES LIGHT AND PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHEASTERLY. A MESSY AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY
AS IT MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY
BREEZES FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE FIELD
WILL THEN QUICKLY FLATTEN, ALLOWING WINDS TO COLLAPSE. FOR LATE IN
THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, A MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
DRIVE INCREASING DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND SUPPORT ELEVATED RAIN
AND THUNDER CHANCES. IN ADDITION, LOCAL WINDS MAY BE DOMINATED BY
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. WITH THAT
SAID, PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS MAY DELIVER MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, EXPECT VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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