159
FXUS62 KMFL 142251
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
651 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 644 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH MONDAY'S FOCUS MORE ALONG THE EAST COAST. IMPACTS WILL BE
FROM FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- MAX HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WHICH MAY
CAUSE HEAT RELATED CONCERNS FOR SENSITIVE POPULATIONS. HEAT
INDICES SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH MAY RESULT IN
FURTHER COMPLICATIONS FOR THOSE ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
AS ANTICIPATED, ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR HAS TAKEN SHAPE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW STORMS
REACHING CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE REMAINED
INLAND OF THE BEACHES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY COLLIDING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SHOULD ANY STORM DEVELOP OR MEANDER CLOSER TO
THE EAST COAST, THERE DOES REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR SOME URBAN
FLOODING GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
AND WOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS, WITH SOME SHOWING SIGNS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES PER HOUR RATES. A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA TODAY BY WPC. STORMS SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE OTHER STORY FOR THE DAY IS THE HEAT. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE RISING TO
AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES, WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEAT ISSUES FOR VERY
SENSITIVE POPULATIONS OR THOSE SPENDING EXCESSIVE TIME OUTSIDE.
HEADING INTO MONDAY, THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS WHERE THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE UPPER
PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY GENERAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. AS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION, WINDS
AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WESTERLY OUT OF
THE GULF. THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP MONDAY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.
HEAT WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOSER TO 105, BUT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THOSE
THRESHOLDS FOR NOW. IF WE GET STORMS TO DEVELOP EARLIER AND DROP
TEMPS FASTER, WE MAY NOT REACH 105 SO EASILY TOMORROW AS WELL.
STILL, THE REGION WILL STILL BE MINOR TO MODERATE LEVELS OF
HEATRISK WITH SOME AREAS OF LOW PROBABILITIES OF MAJOR HEATRISK.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT A LITTLE AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
WHILE THIS WEEKEND WE HAVE BEEN SITUATED BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF
HIGHER PRESSURE, THIS WILL STRENGTHEN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
WEEK AND HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THIS WEEKEND,
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN AROUND
105 DEGREES THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE WEEK BUT THESE WILL BE
INCREASING AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK, WHERE HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR HEAT INDICES IN
EXCESS OF 105-108 DEGREES. HEATRISK DEPICTION ALSO INCREASES MORE
TO THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR CATEGORIES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
COASTAL LOCATIONS. DAILY SCATTERED TO SOME NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN AS WELL WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS STILL BEING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. INITIALLY
STORMS WILL AFFECT THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BUT MIGRATE TO MORE OF AN INTERIOR SHOW DURING
THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN BUT
MAY STILL AFFECT KPBI ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS BUT
OVERALL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND AROUND 5KTS OR
LESS. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH CONVECTION AFTER 18Z,
THIS TIME FAVORING MUCH MORE OF THE TAF SITES ALONG THE EAST
COAST. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE A SHOWER OR STORM ON THE WEST COAST,
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS MUCH LOWER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC HAVE BEEN PRESENT
TODAY AND MORE WESTERLY OFF THE GULF. THESE SHOULD GENERALLY
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WELL. SEAS GENERALLY 2 FT OR LESS IN THE ATLANTIC
AND A FOOT OR LESS IN THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 77 91 77 91 / 20 70 20 40
WEST KENDALL 75 92 75 93 / 20 60 20 30
OPA-LOCKA 77 93 77 93 / 20 70 20 50
HOMESTEAD 77 91 77 92 / 10 40 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 91 78 91 / 20 70 20 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 77 91 77 91 / 20 70 20 60
PEMBROKE PINES 79 95 78 95 / 20 70 20 50
WEST PALM BEACH 77 91 77 92 / 20 70 20 70
BOCA RATON 78 91 77 91 / 20 70 20 60
NAPLES 79 90 80 90 / 10 20 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM....JC
AVIATION...JC
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