708
FXUS62 KMFL 150500
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
100 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1257 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
- REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND AIR QUALITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NAPLES METRO DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE
NEWMAN FIRE.
- DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL EAST COAST
BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING REMAINS IN TACT AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT
CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE ALSO FURTHER
AMPLIFYING. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 97-99TH PERCENTILE FOR
THESE DATES, SHOWING JUST HOW STRONG THIS RIDGE IS. THE DRIER AIR
MASS ALSO HOLDS STEADY, MAINTAINING A DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER TODAY AND TOMORROW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO RELAX, BUT STILL WILL BE RELATIVELY BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20-30 MPH. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REACH
THE LOW 80S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR
THE GULF COAST REGION TODAY AS THE EASTERLY REGIME FAVORS WARMER
TEMPS FOR THE GULF REGION DURING THE DAY AND COOLER AT NIGHT. HIGHS
THEN CLIMB TO NEAR 90 FOR GULF COAST METRO AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH
LOW TO MID 80S HIGHS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEWMAN WILDFIRE IN COLLIER COUNTY AS
WELL. UNTIL ITS FULLY CONTROLLED, BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR SMOKE TO CONTINUE TO DISPERSE FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE POINT WHERE
IT'S LESS CONTROLLABLE. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH SMOKE TOWARDS
THE GULF SHORE AND OTHER AREAS IN THE VICINITY. AS A RESULT OF THIS,
LOCAL AIR QUALITY ISSUES ARE LIKELY AND CAN IMPACT SENSITIVE GROUPS
AS FIREFIGHTERS CONTINUE TO WORK ON MITIGATING THE FIRE.
ADDITIONALLY, SMOKE CAN CONTRIBUTE TO LOWER VISIBILITIES ON ROADWAYS
AND MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS LESS SAFE IN CERTAIN AREAS. CAUTION IS
ADVISED WHEN DRIVING ON THE ROADWAYS UNTIL THE FIRE IS FULLY
CONTROLLED, AND VULNERABLE POPULATIONS SHOULD CONSIDER LIMITING TIME
OUTDOORS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
LONG TERM ENSEMBLES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVECTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTING TO BREAK DOWN
THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HOWEVER, WITH THE
RIDGE BEING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED, IT WILL NOT BREAK DOWN ENTIRELY AND
RATHER JUST BE WEAKENED OR 'FLATTENED OUT' IN A SENSE. AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN ADVECTS OFFSHORE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RE-
AMPLIFIES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FORMING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO THE POINT WHERE IT FORCES SOME DOWNSTREAM
VORTICITY AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND SIMULTANEOUSLY WEAKENS THE RIDGING PATTERN. MOISTURE
WOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARDS.
HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES STILL KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS AROUND THE 90-95TH
PERCENTILE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, HINTING THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO HOLD ONTO ITS CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND DESPITE INCOMING LOW
PRESSURE TRYING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. IF THIS TREND HOLDS FIRM,
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WOULD BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MINUS SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF INCREASED
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE PATTERN AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS SOME MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS FROM A LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AFTER IT ENTERS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE RIDGE
FINALLY LOSES ITS STRENGTH, PWATS MAY RISE BACK TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK (1.2-1.4") WHICH CAN
SUPPORT SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY EVEN UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE
PATTERN, PARTICULARLY AS A RESULT OF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.
OVERALL, MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND CLUSTERS AT THIS TIME STILL FAVOR
DRIER SOLUTIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY NEXT WEEK, AND EVEN
THESE FEW WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME DO NOT FAVOR A
HIGHLY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH TOTAL QPF FOR EACH 24-HOUR PERIOD BEING
BELOW 0.5". AS A RESULT, THE LATEST FORECAST KEEPS CONDITIONS
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
RETURNING AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
OVERALL, ENSEMBLES DO HIGHLIGHT A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BEING
POSSIBLE AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH ON THAT GIVEN ITS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE EACH DAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND UNDERNEATH THIS LARGE RIDGING PATTERN AS WE SEE HIGHS RISE
TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO, UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S FOR THE GULF COAST, AND LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE EACH NIGHT FROM THE LOW 60S FOR
THE GULF COAST, INTERIOR, AND LAKE REGIONS TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN WORKS
SOUTHWARDS AND WASHES OUT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, A COOL
DOWN BACK TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
IS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 8-10 KTS THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL INCREASE AGAIN
AFTER 14-15Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A WESTERLY BREEZE APPEARS LIKELY AT APF AFTER 18-19Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
A MODERATE BREEZE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH A GENTLE BREEZE IN THE GULF
WATERS. SEAS OF 4-6 FEET EXPECTED IN THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND 2
FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF WATERS. SEAS FALL A BIT FURTHER IN THE
ATLANTIC TODAY TO 2-4 FEET AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THIS RANGE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK WHILE GULF SEAS REMAIN AT 1-2 FEET OR LESS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
THIS WEEK. WHILE THIS RISK MAY DECREASE A BIT FOR FRIDAY AND THIS
WEEKEND, AN ELEVATED RISK MAY STILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 69 83 71 85 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 65 85 67 87 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 69 84 70 87 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 69 83 70 85 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 81 72 83 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 70 81 71 83 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 70 85 72 87 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 67 81 70 84 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 70 81 71 83 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 64 85 67 87 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...REDMAN
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