418  
FXUS62 KMFL 021333  
AFDMFL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL  
933 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND  
UNCOMFORTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. LIGHT,  
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH SEABREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE  
OVERALL PATTERN, THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE SHOULD NOT PROGRESS TOO  
FAR INLAND. WHILE SOUNDING ANALYSIS THIS MORNING REVEALS A BIT  
DRIER AIR IN PLACE WITH PWATS OF 1.55 INCHES RUNNING BELOW  
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE, A SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENSION OF A MIDLEVEL  
TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN FORCING FOR  
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SEA BREEZE  
BOUNDARIES. THEREFORE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN  
INTERIOR AND THEN REFOCUSING OVER THE EAST COAST METRO BY EARLY  
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL,  
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT  
DEVELOP.  
 
FORECAST-WISE, EVERYTHING LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR  
TWEAKS MADE TO KEEP UP WITH TRENDS IN RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 727 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2020/  
 
AVIATION...  
 
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH BRIEF  
BOUTS OF LOWER CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST COAST  
TERMINALS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HELPS TO PUSH SHRA/TS THAT DEVELOP  
OVER THE INTERIOR TOWARDS THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY  
EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH LIGHT  
AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2020/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
SHORT TERM (THROUGH FRIDAY):  
 
WEAK WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE  
AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG  
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE SEABREEZES ARE  
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS EACH AFTERNOON, THE ATLANTIC  
SEABREEZE WILL LIKELY MAKE LESS PROGRESS INLAND WITH THE OVERALL  
W/SW FLOW. AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR BEFORE  
PUSHING ACROSS THE EAST COAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVE RAINFALL  
WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS.  
 
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH  
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S AND MAX HEAT INDICES GENERALLY IN  
THE 102-108 RANGE. ALTHOUGH THIS FALLS SHORT OF THE HEAT ADVISORY  
CRITERIA (108+ FOR 2+ HOURS), SENSITIVE GROUPS AND THOSE WORKING  
OUTDOORS COULD STILL EXPERIENCE HEAT ILLNESS, ESPECIALLY SINCE LOW  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE METRO AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 80  
OVERNIGHT. THIS PATTERN, ESPECIALLY OVER MANY CONSECUTIVE DAYS, CAN  
INCREASE HEAT ILLNESS RISK AS THERE IS NO "COOLING OFF" DURING THE  
OVERNIGHT PERIODS.  
 
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY):  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A RATHER COMPLEX SYNOPTIC SCENARIO FOR THE  
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF  
REGION, WHILE MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
BASICALLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SE CONUS. MEANWHILE, THE CUSTOMARY  
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FURTHER  
EAST OF THE SUNSHINE STATE, ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH THE EASTERN EDGE  
OF THE HIGH OVER THE GULF TO MAINTAIN SOFLO UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHERLY  
FLOW REGIME THROUGH ERLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
MEANWHILE, MODELS ALSO SHOW A MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS FLORIDA AS  
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS INTENSIFIES. THIS  
WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORM FORMATION OVER THE  
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE  
OVER SOFLO FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY WITH THE  
PERSISTENT LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW  
COLLISIONS TO BECOME THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LIFTING MECHANISMS.  
 
THE GENERALLY LIGHT BACKGROUND FLOW WILL RESULT IN STORMS HAVING  
LITTLE STEERING, AND KEEPING HEAVY RAIN FOR LONGER PERIODS OF TIME  
OVER THE SAME AREA. ALSO, WITH THE LIGHT FLOW BECOMING CALM AT  
TIMES, EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO HIT THE MID-UPPER 90S OVER MUCH OF  
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOFLO, ALONG WITH LOW-MID 90S ACROSS EASTERN  
AREAS.  
 
MARINE...  
GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
BEACH FORECAST...  
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST AT ALL SOUTH FLORIDA BEACHES  
INTO THE WEEKEND.  

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WEST PALM BEACH 93 76 94 76 / 40 20 30 10  
FORT LAUDERDALE 92 79 93 79 / 20 30 20 10  
MIAMI 94 79 94 78 / 20 10 20 10  
NAPLES 91 78 92 78 / 10 0 10 0  
 

 
   
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 
UPDATE...11/HVN  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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