308
FXUS62 KMFL 212244
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
644 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 643 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
UPCOMING WEEK WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE RISK.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE EAST
COAST BEACHES.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS TO LOWER THE
DEWPOINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AS IT APPEARS
THAT THE NBM IS TOO HIGH, SO BLENDED TOWARDS THE BOTTOM END OF
GUIDANCE. ADDED A FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR THE ENHANCED FIRE
WX RISK THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE LOWER RH VALUES EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
MODELS DEPICT RIDGING DOMINATING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE LOW LVLS/SFC
ACROSS THE REGION AS A BROAD H1025MB REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SE
CONUS. MFL 00Z SOUNDING FINALLY SHOW PWATS DROPPING TO BELOW 1 INCH
ALONG WITH A SHARP DRYING TREND ABOVE 1 KM. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS IS
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS SOFLO WITH WINDS FINALLY
SUBSIDING TODAY, WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW AT TIMES BY
THIS EVENING.
WITH THE DRYING TREND AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING OVER THE
AREA EXPECT BENIGN WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH POPS REMAINING IN SINGLE DIGITS EACH DAY.
THE DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
WARMEST AROUND THE GULF COAST. SUNDAY MAY GET EVEN WARMER WITH MUCH
OF SOFLO IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA REMAINING IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK.
LATEST WPC ANALYSES SHOW A TROUGH.LOW COMPLEX PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS INSIST IN BRINGING A
VERY WEAKEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE, BASICALLY DISSIPATING
BY THURSDAY JUST NORTH OF SOFLO. BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO HAVE A
CONCRETE SOLUTION ABOUT POSSIBLE RAIN AND/OR POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WED/THU TIME FRAME. LATEST NBM/GFS POPS KEEP
LOW-END COVERAGE (AROUND 20-25%) LINGERING NORTH OF I-75 WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN QUICKLY DRYING OUT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW,
FORECAST WILL KEEP CARRYING STRAIGHT NBM GRIDS AND WAIT FOR
UPCOMING GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS.
THE PERSISTING RIDGE AXIS OVER SOFLO WILL KEEP A WIND PROFILE ON THE
WEAKER SIDE WITH FLOW BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES.
EFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S EACH DAY, AND
EVEN A FEW SPOTS TOUCHING THE LOW 90S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BECOMING ESE AROUND 10 KTS, WITH A WNW GULF BREEZE AT
APF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
ROBUST NNE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL KEEP HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. HAZARDOUS WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE GULF WATERS, REMAINING
CAUTIONARY THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC 5-8 FT,
AND 3-6 FT IN THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
AN ELEVATED N/NE SWELL WILL KEEP THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR ONE MORE DAY, THEN SUBSIDING IN MIAMI
AND BROWARD BEACHES STARTING TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VERY LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MIN RH VALUES OVER INLAND SOUTH FL WILL
FALL TO 25-35 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT, THE LOW RH LEVELS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
AN ENHANCED FIRE WX RISK THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A REMINDER THAT
GLADES, HENDRY, AND COLLIER COUNTIES REMAIN UNDER COUNTY-ENACTED
BURN BANS. PLEASE CONTACT YOUR SPECIFIC COUNTY GOVERNMENT FOR
DETAILS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 61 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 56 83 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 60 82 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 60 81 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 60 79 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 61 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 60 83 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 59 82 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 60 81 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 58 82 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CMF
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