694
FXUS62 KMFL 162320
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
620 PM EST WED JAN 16 2019
AVIATION
GULF AND ATLANTIC SEABREEZES WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS, WITH LANDBREEZE BACKING EAST COAST SITES NNW AND KAPF
NE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AT AROUND 3-6KTS. ATLANTIC SITES
SHOULD VEER NE A LITTLE EARLIER TOMORROW, AROUND 14-15Z, BECOMING
ENE 18-20Z. SKIES GENERALLY REMAINING VFR, WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING SCT-BKN STRATOCU DECK COMING
IN WITH ENE WIND SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH LIKELY FL040-050.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 355 PM EST WED JAN 16 2019/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALLOW A
RELATIVELY DRY, COOL PATTERN TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SOME
CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
AVAILABLE SURFACE MOISTURE COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND IT COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND THE NEXT
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY
WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE MORE
LIMITED OVER LAND WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS BEING OVER THE WARMER
WATERS, SOME STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING IS A SLIGHT BIT EARLIER WITH THESE LATEST
MODEL RUNS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
COLD AIR WILL HAVE A LIMITED WINDOW TO REACH SOUTH FLORIDA BEHIND
THE FRONT BEFORE THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST AND THE FLOW TURNS
EASTERLY WITH A MORE MODERATED AND MOIST ATLANTIC INFLUENCE BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHEN THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES, ELEVATED SEAS ARE FORECAST OVER THE
GULF STREAM IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GULF WILL ALSO BUILD AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH THE ATLANTIC FOLLOWING THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACH FORECAST...
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE PALM BEACH AND BROWARD BEACHES. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY, THOUGH THE PALM BEACHES COULD SEE AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS LINGER THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WEST PALM BEACH 56 74 58 76 / 10 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 59 74 62 76 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 57 75 60 77 / 10 10 10 0
NAPLES 50 75 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
AVIATION...88/ALM
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