083
FXUS62 KMFL 311645
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1245 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1236 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL EAST COAST
BEACHES FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
BISCAYNE BAY & ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS A FEW LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS
MOVE ONSHORE THE EAST COAST IN THE MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY, WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS SHIFTING TO THE
INTERIOR AND EVENTUALLY GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE REFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK GULF SEABREEZE COULD SET UP RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AFTER 3 PM WHICH COULD ACT TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
A THUNDERSTORM. THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A GULF SEABREEZE, SO FOR NOW WE'RE CONTINUING
THE 30% POPS FOR INTERIOR AND GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND NOT
MENTIONING THUNDER DUE TO A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP
MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK FOR TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
05Z RTMA & ACARS DATA THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE AXIS OF MID-
LEVEL RIDGING IS NOW LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL LAYER OF DRY AIR IN THE VERTICAL COLUMN ABOVE 600MB AND
AN EASILY IDENTIFIABLE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING
EARLIER TONIGHT. A CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION HAS RESULTED IN A CONTINUATION OF BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW AND
THE ADVECTION OF LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BRISKLY
MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST.SURFACE ANALYSIS OF ISOBARS INDICATES A
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION AS
PRESSURE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY INCREASE AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DECAYED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. MESOSCALE
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR, RRFS, AND RAP ALL DEPICT THE CONTINUATION
OF LOW END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
EVEN AS THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SLIDES WEST OF THE REGION
TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WHILE MESOSCALE MODELS DON'T DEPICT A PLETHORA OF ACTIVITY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY, IT WOULD BE WISE TO NOT BET AGAINST A STRONG
EASTERLY BREEZE OVER THE INSTABILITY LADEN WATERS OF THE NEARBY
GULFSTREAM TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. BLENDED THE NAMDNG AND CONSSHORT MODELS TOGETHER TO BETTER
ACCOUNT FOR RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) WITH A FOCI OF ELEVATED RAIN
CHANCES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING BEFORE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TO THE GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY
AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR ALOFT ACTS TO SUPPRESS
ANY VERTICAL HEIGHT TO CONVECTION.
ALOFT, THE AXIS OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ADVECT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS BY WEDNESDAY, GRADUALLY ELONGATING AND WEAKENING IN
INTENSITY AS 500MB PRESSURE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE
DAY. AT THE SURFACE, CONTINUED ENHANCEMENT OF SURFACE RIDGING WILL
ADVECT A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST RESULTING
IN A FURTHER REDUCTION OF RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY BREEZE REMAINS THE STATUS QUO. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS GIVEN THE MESOSCALE AND
TOPOGRAPHICAL SETUP IN THIS FLOW REGIME BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
MUCH LOWER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS.
A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA DUE TO
THE COOLING ASPECTS OF THE OCEAN BREEZE AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA PEAKING IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
INVERSE AS THE OCEAN BREEZE WILL KEEP WARM AND MUGGY CONDITONS ALONG
THE EAST COAST WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S WHEREAS INLAND AND WESTERN
LOCALES WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE WIDESPREAD 60S, EVEN
LOW 60S ACROSS COOL SPOTS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A PERSISTENT EASTERLY BREEZE WILL REMAIN THE NORM THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. UPSTREAM, AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND ADVECT EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. INTERESTINGLY,
A ASSORTMENT OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO DEPICT THIS LOBE OF VORTICITY SLOWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND UNDERGOING A MESSY EVOLUTION
(MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES CONGEALING?) INTO A CUT-OFF LOW WHICH
IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GFS
SHOWS A MORE DEFINED FEATURE TRANSITING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WHEREAS
THE EUROPEAN MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A LESS DEFINED FEATURE AND A MORE
SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IT APPEARS A MORE
ACTIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN MAY EVOLVE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT ALOFT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE FROM THE EAST COULD
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE ON A SLOW
MODERATING TREND WITH LOWER 80S ANTICIPATED ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EACH AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CUT-OFF LOW AND SUBSEQUENT RAIN CHANCES. WITH THE EASTERLY
BREEZE EVENTUALLY LESSENING IN STRENGTH DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK , THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BECOME FAR LESS DEFINED AS TIME PROGRESSES ONWARD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS FOR APF LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PASSING SHOWER ACTIVITY HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
EXPLICITLY INCLUDE IN TAF. WIND 080-090 DEGREES AROUND 12-14
KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK MAINLY DUE TO A PERSISTENT STRONG
EASTERLY BREEZE. WINDS MAY DECREASE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT
TIMES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS ALTHOUGH RESURGENCE IN WIND
SPEEDS BACK TO CRITERIA LEVEL REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL MAINLY REMAIN IN THE
4-6 FT RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF
WATERS. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS STRONG ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST.
ALWAYS SWIM AT A GUARDED BEACH AND WHEN IN DOUBT, DON'T VENTURE
OUT!
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 70 81 71 81 / 20 10 20 40
WEST KENDALL 65 83 67 83 / 10 10 20 30
OPA-LOCKA 69 82 70 83 / 20 10 20 40
HOMESTEAD 70 81 71 82 / 20 10 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 79 71 80 / 20 10 30 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 70 79 71 80 / 20 10 30 40
PEMBROKE PINES 70 83 71 84 / 20 10 20 40
WEST PALM BEACH 68 80 70 81 / 20 20 30 40
BOCA RATON 69 80 70 80 / 20 10 30 40
NAPLES 66 86 67 86 / 20 10 0 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
651-670-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...RIZZUTO
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