502
FXUS62 KMFL 290505
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1205 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1152 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
COLD APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ARE
FORECAST FOR GLADES/HENDRY/INLAND COLLIER EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 31 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING FOR GLADES COUNTY WHERE A FREEZE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT.
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COULD RESULT IN
PERIODS OF ENHANCED FIRE BEHAVIOR.
- A POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING COLD SNAP IS POSSIBLE LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. NEAR FREEZING TO SUB-FREEZING LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR A LARGE AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA
EARLY SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE 30S
COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS MIAMI DADE COUNTY WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
AFTER A SOMEWHAT DREARY AND CLOUDY WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHOULD BRING MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE COLD AGAIN, THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WARMING UP INTO THE 70S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AS WELL. EXPECT UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
ON FRIDAY, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WHICH COULD BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE NEXT HOTLY
ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. ASIDE FROM A FEW
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON, FRIDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY PLEASANT AS
WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. LOWS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT PUSHES TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ACT TO REINFORCE THE
COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COOLEST AND DRIEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON THUS FAR ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE STRONG FRONT, WHICH WILL
ADVECT A DRY ARCTIC CONTINENTAL AIR MASS DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
ALL DAY ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING COULD BE EVEN
COLDER AS COLD AIR ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED, AND MARITIME MODIFICATION
TO THE AIR MASS IS MINIMIZED, OR NEARLY NON-EXISTENT. LOW
TEMPERATURES COULD BE SO COLD EARLY SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY THAT
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH
POTENTIAL FREEZE WARNINGS EXTENDING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
EARLIER COLD SNAPS THIS SEASON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY NOT REACH MUCH HIGHER THAN THE MID 50S. TRENDS
HAVE BEEN CLOSELY MONITORED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
THROUGH THE WEEK ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING THAT THIS
COULD BE THE COLDEST ATTIC SNAP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SINCE
DECEMBER 2010. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND ON TUESDAY MORNING
BUT WILL STILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA ALTHOUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WE MAY FINALLY BE ABLE TO
REACH THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, HIGH
TEMPERATURES (FINALLY) ARE ABLE TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S.
VISIT OUR WEBSITE FOR GRAPHICAL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS (HOVER OVER
'FORECAST' AND THEN CLICK 'COLD WEATHER' OR 'OTHER PROBABILISTIC
FORECAST GRAPHICS'). DESCRIBING TEMPERATURES ACROSS EVERY PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TEXT IS A BIT CLUNKY AND IMAGES MAKE THE
MESSAGE MUCH CLEARER.
WHILE THE ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO STEAL THE
SHOW, SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE QUITE
SIGNIFICANT AS WELL. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-25 MPH OVER LAND WITH POTENTIAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, AND THIS POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. REGARDLESS, IT WOULD BE WISE TO
SECURE ANY LIGHT OUTDOOR OBEJECTS THAT MAY BECOME PROJECTILES
PRIOR TO THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT AND BECOME NE AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE THEY WILL ONCE AGAIN RAPIDLY DETERIORATE ON
SATURDAY. NNE FLOW BETWEEN 15-20 KTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY,
WEAKENING TO 10-15 KTS ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS ALL
LOCAL WATERS INCREASING TO 30-40 KTS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD COULD REACH 40-50 KTS. GALE
WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL BE EXPLORED OVER THE COMING FORECAST CYCLES.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK WITH THE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WARNING WITH HEIGHTS OF 10-12 FEET ACROSS BOTH GULF
AND ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SUNDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RIP CURRENT PROBABILITIES ARE POISED
TO INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 51 71 60 71 / 30 0 10 30
WEST KENDALL 46 72 54 73 / 20 0 10 30
OPA-LOCKA 49 72 58 73 / 30 0 10 30
HOMESTEAD 51 72 59 73 / 30 0 10 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 50 70 60 71 / 30 0 10 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 50 70 59 71 / 30 0 10 30
PEMBROKE PINES 48 72 57 73 / 30 0 10 30
WEST PALM BEACH 48 70 57 71 / 20 0 0 20
BOCA RATON 48 71 58 72 / 30 0 10 30
NAPLES 41 70 52 71 / 0 0 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR FLZ063-066-070.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR FLZ063.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RIZZUTO
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION...RIZZUTO
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