683
FXUS62 KMFL 162021
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
421 PM EDT MON SEP 16 2019
..THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEK
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS IN THE ATLANTIC DUE TO NORTHERLY
SWELL FROM HURRICANE HUMBERTO...
DISCUSSION
HURRICANE HUMBERTO OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS IS FORECAST
BY NHC TO MOVE EASTERLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK ALLOWING
FOR THE WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE SWINGING MORE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH
REDUCING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS ON TUESDAY SHIFTING TO MORE SOUTHWEST REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
HUMBERTO IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY TO THE EAST LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BRINGING A BREEZY TO WINDY
NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO QUICKLY MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS
WEEK, BUT THE COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
EXTENDED FORECAST
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST FROM THE BAHAMAS LATE THIS WEEK ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA NEXT WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL BRING IN DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
MARINE
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE GOING
MORE NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK. THE SPEEDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
INCREASING TO BREEZY TO EVEN POSSIBILITY OF WINDY CONDITIONS BY
LATE MID TO END OF THIS WEEK.
A NORTHEAST SWELL FROM HUMBERTO WILL BE INCREASING THIS WEEK AND
WILL GET TO 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND 2 TO 4 FEET
IN REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK.
IF THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS IS WITH THE SWELLS, THEN A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH COUNTY FOR
THE MIDDLE TO LATER THIS WEEK.
THE BUILDING NORTHEAST SWELLS AND THE INCREASING NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD FROM 5 TO
7 FEET TONIGHT TO 7 TO 9 FEET BY MID TO LATE WEEK, EXCEPT FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE THE SEAS SHOULD GET
INTO THE 9 TO 12 FEET. THE GULF WATERS SHOULD SEAS OF 2 FEET OR
LESS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE
MID TO END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE, THE SCA CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
BEACH FORECAST
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. REST OF THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO BE ON AN INCREASE FROM
MODERATE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SHOULD GO TO HIGH CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WEST PALM BEACH 76 90 76 90 / 20 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 91 77 91 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 78 92 77 92 / 40 20 20 20
NAPLES 77 92 75 92 / 0 0 0 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...54/BNB
MARINE...54/BNB
BEACH FORECAST...54/BNB
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