863  
FXUS62 KMFL 101728  
AFDMFL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL  
128 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2022  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 943 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2022  
 
THE SAHARAN AIR IS WORKING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING FROM  
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE PWAT VALUE FROM MIA IS AROUND 1.35  
INCHES THIS MORNING. THIS PWAT VALUE IS BELOW THE 10 PERCENTILE  
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH IS 1.5 INCHES AND THE RECORD LOW PWAT  
VALUE IS 1.2 INCHES. HOWEVER, THE WEST COAST PWAT VALUES ARE STILL  
IN THE AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD SLOWLY  
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL  
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF  
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND  
POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE.  
THEREFORE, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR  
THE WESTERN AREAS. THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN  
DRY TODAY.  
 
THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER MOST AREAS TODAY  
DUE TO THE LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, EXCEPT FOR  
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE IT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.  
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE HEAT INDICES TO GET UP INTO THE MID 100S  
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, DO NOT EXPECT A  
HEAT ADVISORY OVER THE REGION, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE  
HEAT INDICES THROUGH THE DAY TO SEE IF A SHORT FUSE HEAT ADVISORY  
WILL BE NEEDED.  
 
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES  
ARE PLANNED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)  
 
THE MOISTURE FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH  
THE GREATER ANTILLES IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.  
SIMULTANEOUSLY, A LARGE SWATH OF DRIER SAHARAN AIR IS FILTERING IN  
FROM THE EAST. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL MISS OUR AREA AND HEAD INTO  
THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WHILE THE DRIER AND DUSTY AIR DOMINATES SOUTHERN  
FLORIDA BEGINNING TODAY. THE SKIES ALREADY BEGAN TO LOOK QUITE HAZY  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND LIKELY EVEN  
THURSDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL CHOKE RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND THURSDAY,  
THOUGH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.  
ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE ISOLATED, CONFINED TO THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR  
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA, AND SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN GARDEN VARIETY TYPE  
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE SURFACE, THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW  
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE MID  
90S ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SEA BREEZES.  
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH TRIPLE DIGITS AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR  
POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORIES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)  
 
EARLY ON FRIDAY, WE WILL SEE THE DRY AND DUSTY AIR MASS BEGINNING TO  
EXIT THE REGION AS SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE  
EASTERLY REGIME WILL ALSO FINALLY BREAK DOWN AS THE BERMUDA HIGH  
RETREATS AND ALLOWS FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO WEAKEN AND BECOME  
MORE SEA BREEZE DOMINANT. THIS FAVORS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES  
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF SOUTH FLORIDA AS SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS TRIGGER  
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PWATS WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY LOW AROUND 1.3 INCHES  
ON FRIDAY, SO ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, BUT MOISTURE WILL  
BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY, FLOW WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY  
IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SE UNITED STATES THAT WILL  
PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL DRAG MORE MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH  
FLORIDA AND ALLOW FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THOUGH POPS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO AT THIS TIME.  
 
THE FRONT BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELONGATED ACROSS THE  
REGION WHICH WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH  
AFTERNOON TO BEGIN THE NEW WEEK. GIVEN THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC WINDS, SEA BREEZES  
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AND CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE  
TO FIRE ALONG BOUNDARIES OF MESOSCALE ASCENT, WHICH SHOULD  
CONGREGATE ACROSS INLAND AREAS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL  
TREND COOLER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS INCREASED CLOUD  
COVER AND THE COOLING EFFECTS OF CONVECTION WILL ACT TO KEEP HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2022  
 
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH  
TONIGHT, EXCEPT KAPF WHERE IT WILL BE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO  
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. ALL OF THE TAF SITES WILL BE IN THE VFR  
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER, KAPF TAF SITE COULD SEE  
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM BUT THE COVERAGE WILL BE FEW AND FAR  
BETWEEN TO PUT IT INTO THE KAPF TAF SITE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY  
EAST AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE WATERS SHOULD BE LIMITED AS A SAHARAN AIR  
MASS ENGULFS THE REGION, THOUGH ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  
 

 
   
BEACHES
 
 
STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS HAVE LED TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS  
FOR ATLANTIC BEACHES THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
WEEK. THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH AT  
LEAST THURSDAY. THE EASTERLY REGIME WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AND RIP CURRENT  
RISK SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY DROP.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MIAMI 79 91 78 91 / 10 10 10 30  
WEST KENDALL 77 92 76 92 / 10 10 10 30  
OPA-LOCKA 79 92 78 92 / 10 10 10 30  
HOMESTEAD 79 90 78 89 / 10 10 10 30  
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 91 79 90 / 10 10 10 30  
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 91 79 90 / 0 10 10 30  
PEMBROKE PINES 79 92 78 92 / 10 10 10 30  
WEST PALM BEACH 79 91 78 91 / 0 10 0 20  
BOCA RATON 79 92 78 92 / 0 10 10 30  
NAPLES 76 92 76 91 / 20 30 10 30  
 

 
   
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-  
173.  
 
AM...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RIZZUTO  
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO  
AVIATION...BNB  
 
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