284
FXUS62 KMFL 201105
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
605 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 601 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
- A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, MOST OF US WILL REMAIN DRY.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR AND SW FL
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ENHANCE LATE SUNDAY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE
AND BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA IS
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 601 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR AND SW FL. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG HAVE BEEN ADDED INTO THE GRIDS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
THE DEPARTURE AND WANING INFLUENCE OF A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
(AND ASSOCIATED NEARBY SHORTWAVE) FURTHER EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR VEERING MID-LEVEL WINDS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF TROUGHING ALOFT, 500MB
WIND VECTORS ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION,
INDICATIVE OF DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER CUBA AND
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AT THE SURFACE, A MORE COMPLEX
PATTERN IS IN PLAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME
FRONTOLYTIC IN NATURE AS IT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF SOUTH FLORIDA, THE FLORIDA KEYS, AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT ACROSS THE REGION, WIND FLOW
WILL BECOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH A MESO LOW SETTING UP OVER LAND
AND A MESO HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WINDS VEERING ONSHORE ALONG BOTH COASTS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR HAVE
SETTLED INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA OVERNIGHT, MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT WE REMAIN SITUATED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES RISING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY RANGING BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.2 INCHES
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE INSTABILITY LADEN WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MOISTURE
TO GET A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREA DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE SHALLOW IN NATURE DUE TO A PLETHORA OF DRY AIR FURTHER UP IN
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. IT'LL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE BUT NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY.
SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S, HOWEVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REACH THE LOW 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE
MIDDLE 80S AS WELL.
MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS CUBA AND FLORIDA STRAITS IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LOBE OF MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING ADVECTS WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. OUR LOCATION BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RESULT IN MID-
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A
STRONG AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT PRESSURE HEIGHTS (1030+ MB) OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL BE NEARING THE 96-98TH PERCENTILE BASED ON HISTORICAL
OBSERVATIONS. WHY IS THIS FACTOID IMPORTANT FOR US HERE IN SOUTH
FLORIDA? THE ANOMALOUS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING COMBINED WITH THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEVELOPING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN WITH
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ONCE
AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
WITH THE CONTINUATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GRADUAL SHIFT OF STOUT SURFACE RIDGING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS, SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE AMPLE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN
WITH US IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW ALOFT, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW TOPPED. FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT DECREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD, HOWEVER IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS AVERAGED ACROSS THE ENTIRE VERTICAL PROFILE OF THE COLUMN.
THUS, THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST 1KM
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE MORE
PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO POTENTIAL COASTAL CONVERGENCE
SETTING UP AT TIMES DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME FOR A WETTER SOLUTION, HOWEVER WE WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE THE SETUP AS ADDITIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE COMES IN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE
WITH US ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ALBEIT LESSENING IN INTENSITY
FURTHER ALONG IN THE WEEK. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION EACH AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN THE SAME WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND TEMPS IN THE 80S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. IT APPEARS THAT BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST,
CHRISTMAS EVE AS WELL AS CHRISTMAS DAY HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WISE WITH AN EASTERLY BREEZE.
CURRENT WAKE-UP FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS MORNING RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREA, UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE GULF COAST METRO AREA AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. LIGHT NW WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING BECOMING NNE LATE MORNING AND THEN EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10 KTS. AN AFTERNOON
WESTERLY GULF BREEZE IS EXPECTED AT APF. OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR AND SW FL. TOO EARLY FOR MENTION AT ANY OF
THE TERMINALS AT THIS POINT, BUT APF AND TMB ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 2-3 FEET RANGE ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF WATERS TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS AND WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK, A PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK
IS BECOMING INCREASING LIKELY FOR OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST DETAILS AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PALM
BEACHES TODAY AND SUNDAY. THIS RISK WILL THEN EXPAND AND ENHANCE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE EAST COAST BEACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE
WINDS ENHANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 70 81 69 / 20 20 0 0
WEST KENDALL 83 66 83 65 / 20 10 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 83 68 83 68 / 20 20 10 0
HOMESTEAD 82 69 82 69 / 10 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 71 80 69 / 20 20 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 71 81 70 / 20 20 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 83 68 83 68 / 20 20 10 0
WEST PALM BEACH 81 70 81 69 / 20 20 0 0
BOCA RATON 82 70 82 69 / 20 20 0 0
NAPLES 82 65 83 64 / 0 10 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...CMF
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