390
FXUS62 KMFL 161824
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
224 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 222 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
IN SEVERE, DAMAGING WINDS AND QUARTER-SIZED HAIL.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY, BUT WILL COOL
DOWN ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
- HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND SPREADING TO ALL WATERS TOMORROW AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICT A TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, PUSHING A LONG COLD FRONT INTO THE SE CONUS AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH SOFLO NOW UNDER GENERALLY SSW FLOW, AND GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NORTHWARD BY THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE
FROPA. POPS/WX GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO SHOW A LITTLE BETTER
COVERAGE FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS NBM SEEMS TO BE RUNNING DRIER THAN
THE REST OF GUIDANCE.
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY
SHIFT OVER LAND AS WINDS VEER MORE SW. ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC METRO AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING FOR THE BULK OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE EVENING-EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT, WITH
MAIN HAZARDS INCLUDING LIGHTNING STRIKES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW FAIR
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA,
WITH LATEST SPC OUTLOOK KEEPING SOFLO UNDER MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOW FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN
SOLUTIONS ABOUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT, KEEPING
POPS/WX COVERAGE IN THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF SOFLO
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL DESCEND UPON THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO SPREAD
ACROSS SOFLO. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LEFTOVER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR KEEPING LOW-END POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FROPA
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 10-12 DEGREES COLDER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND, AND LOW 70S NEAR THE
COASTS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA, PROMOTING COOLER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND LOW 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE
COMFORTABLE 70S, GRADUALLY RISING TO THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LINGERING OVER THE FL
STRAITS AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. ITS PRESENCE
NEAR OUR AREA WILL HELP MAINTAIN MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 30-40% RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST
METRO ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE COME FRIDAY, AND SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION, USHERING DRY, SUNNY CONDITIONS IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ACROSS MOST SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. A HEALTHY CUMULUS FIELD IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS NW AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL AID IN MORE
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH BUT BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
A MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
LOCAL WATERS TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW 3 FEET ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, AND BETWEEN 3-5
FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS TODAY, WITH POTENTIALLY ROUGH
SEAS AND STRONG WINDS NEAR ANY STORMS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTY BEACHES WILL BE AT HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AS NORTHERLY SWELL PERSISTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 64 70 59 73 / 80 30 30 50
WEST KENDALL 62 73 56 76 / 80 30 30 50
OPA-LOCKA 64 72 59 75 / 80 30 30 40
HOMESTEAD 65 74 60 76 / 80 40 30 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 61 68 58 71 / 80 30 20 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 62 68 59 71 / 80 30 20 40
PEMBROKE PINES 64 72 60 75 / 80 30 30 40
WEST PALM BEACH 59 66 58 71 / 70 20 10 30
BOCA RATON 61 68 58 72 / 70 30 20 40
NAPLES 57 68 53 73 / 50 10 10 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-
657-676.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...NMP
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