646
FXUS62 KMFL 161054
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
654 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 653 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
- GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES COULD BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.
- DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL EAST COAST
BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING.
- REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND AIR QUALITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NAPLES METRO DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE
NEWMAN FIRE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AS RIDGING REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF WATERS. THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA; THAT, ALONG WITH AN ANOMALOUS MASS OF DRY AIR ALOFT (AS
EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING AND ACARS DATA FROM
KMIA/KFLL/KPBI), WILL HELP INHIBIT ANY MENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER IN NEAR THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
NUISANCE SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WITH EASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE AND PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS TODAY AND ON FRIDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERIOR FL, WHILE THEY'LL MOST LIKELY CAP
OUT IN THE LOW 80S ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOWS EACH DAY WILL DROP
INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LOW 70S ALONG THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT A
GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL US, WHICH COULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
ALOFT, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND, ERODING THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF
AND WEAKENING THE SURFACE HIGH. THIS GRADUAL PROCESS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MOISTURE TO FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH MODELS PWATS
SURGING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR (1.1-
1.3 INCHES). THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP.
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS IT DOES, IT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS FRONT DROPPING ALONG THE PENINSULA EARLY
IN THE WEEK, CLEARING THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY MONDAY
EVENING AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS
SOLUTION; A DEEPER, FASTER TROUGH (AND THUS A STRONGER, FASTER
FRONT) COULD RESULT IN GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA,
WHILE A SLOWER, WEAKER TROUGH COULD LEAD TO HIGHER QPFS FOR THE
REGION. FOR NOW, THE NBM SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY DEEPER, FASTER SOLUTION
WITH 30-40% POPS EACH DAY, AND QPFS LESS THAN 1 INCH. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SOLUTION AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AS WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
EACH AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS COULD COOL BACK DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGHS
NEXT WEEK IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. LOWS EACH NIGHT COULD
DIP INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND DOWN TO THE 60S ALONG
THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL PERSIST, RANGING FROM 5-10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
INCREASING UP TO 10-15 KTS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT
KAPF, A GULF BREEZE WILL DEVELOP, WITH WESTERLY WINDS MOVING
ASHORE. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
A MODERATE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. LIGHTER WINDS WILL
SET UP OVER THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL DROP TO 2-4 FT IN THE
ATLANTIC AND REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
BREEZY, HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 71 85 71 / 0 10 10 0
WEST KENDALL 84 67 87 69 / 0 10 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 84 71 86 71 / 0 10 10 0
HOMESTEAD 82 71 85 72 / 0 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 71 82 72 / 0 10 10 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 71 82 72 / 0 10 10 0
PEMBROKE PINES 85 72 88 73 / 0 10 10 0
WEST PALM BEACH 80 70 83 71 / 0 10 10 0
BOCA RATON 80 71 82 72 / 0 10 10 0
NAPLES 85 66 87 69 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...RIZZUTO
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