606
FXUS62 KMFL 052256
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
656 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 655 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL LIKELY FAVOR INTERIOR
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
- EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
- HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL HIGH TIDES RETURN WITH THE NEW MOON LATER
THIS WEEK
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROCEEDING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
EARLY THIS WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE
MARITIMES SOUTH OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH, IT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUSING AGENT FOR
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH WILL ENABLE TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ANOTHER FACTOR WILL BE THE
LIGHTENING EASTERLY FLOW WITH THE SURFACE WIND FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS COULD ENABLE REPEATED SOUTH TO
NORTH STORM MOTIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND POTENTIALLY
PIN ANY ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE CLOSER TO THE COAST IF THE WESTERN
COMPONENT TO THE WIND FLOW DEVELOPS.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXTENDED THE DAY 2 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY FURTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION AND PORTIONS OF URBAN PALM BEACH AND BROWARD
COUNTIES. MANY PORTIONS OF THE AREA, PARTICULARLY PORTIONS OF METRO
PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES ALREADY HAVE ANTECEDENT SATURATION
FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL LAST WEEK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE AREA GROWS IN THE DAY 3
ERO FOR WEDNESDAY TO INCLUDE MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE TAMIAMI
TRAIL/US 41 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. THE TROUGH THAT HAD HELPED PROPEL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL EJECT INTO THE
ATLANTIC WHICH WILL CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE SOMEWHERE OVER THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA OF FLORIDA. SATURATION FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL EVENTS, SLOWER DRAINAGE ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HIGH TIDES WITH THE NEW MOON, AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REQUIRE MONITORING OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.
THIS ALL STANDS INDEPENDENT OF AN AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF THAT
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING. THIS AFTERNOON'S
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK CURRENTLY HAS A 60% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND AN 80% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW THE PRECISE IMPACTS FROM THIS
POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE, BUT SEVERAL GUIDANCE SUITES ALLOW THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO REMAIN SOMEWHERE AROUND THE CENTRAL PENINSULA OF FLORIDA
WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST LATE IN THE WEEK.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT, AND
THEN MOVEMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE INTRODUCE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO RETREAT NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND BUT A PLUME OF
MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN COULD FOLLOW WHICH COULD KEEP THE RAIN
AROUND A BIT LONGER. THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A
POCKET OF DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE EAST ALONG
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE BAHAMAS FOR SUNDAY. IT'S STILL
TOO EARLY TO TAKE COMPLETE STOCK IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, BUT THE
CURRENT TRENDS DO APPEAR TO REMAIN WET WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
WINDOWS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME BRIEF BOUTS OF SUB-
VFR IS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH THIS EVENING (MAINLY
AROUND APF) AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WIND WILL
BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE DIRECTIONALLY VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EMERGE FOR TUESDAY EXCEPT AT APF WHICH WILL BE
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WITH THE ONSHORE GULF BREEZE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
THE MODERATE TO FRESH EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND
COULD BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES CENTRAL FLORIDA.
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ACCOMPANYING ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 77 89 76 89 / 10 40 30 80
WEST KENDALL 76 89 75 89 / 10 40 20 80
OPA-LOCKA 77 90 76 89 / 10 40 30 80
HOMESTEAD 77 89 76 89 / 10 30 20 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 89 76 89 / 20 40 30 80
N FT LAUDERDALE 77 89 76 89 / 20 40 30 90
PEMBROKE PINES 76 89 75 89 / 10 40 30 80
WEST PALM BEACH 76 89 74 89 / 20 50 40 90
BOCA RATON 76 89 75 89 / 20 40 40 90
NAPLES 75 87 75 86 / 30 30 30 70
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...RAG
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