720  
FXUS62 KMFL 080820  
AFDMFL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL  
320 AM EST THU DEC 8 2022  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF STRONG RIDGING IN  
THE 500MB LAYER DRAPED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA  
PENINSULA, WHICH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR REGION.  
AT THE SURFACE, OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH LIGHT  
EAST-NORTH EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING.  
GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW ALOFT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTH/WEST OF LAKE  
OKEECHOBEE ACROSS INLAND SW FLORIDA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE  
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONCE VERTICAL MIXING OCCURS AFTER SUNRISE,  
THE FOG SHOULD ABATE ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER QUIET AND  
TRANQUIL DAY IS IN STORE FOR OUR REGION. WAKE UP TEMPERATURES  
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE, UPPER 60S  
ALONG THE GULF COAST, AND THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE  
EAST COAST METRO AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED SYNOPTIC RIDGING AND  
SURFACE RIDGING, TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PLEASANT IN NATURE WITH  
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE LOW 80S. THERE IS VERY  
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH PEAK  
DIURNAL HEATING VIA THE ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY,  
BUT CHANCES ARE STILL SO LOW THAT NOT EVEN MENTIONED IN THE  
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  
 
FRIDAY WILL BRING MUCH OF THE SAME AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL  
NOW BE OVERHEAD OF SOUTH FLORIDA, WIND SPEEDS WILL LESSEN TO BECOME  
LIGHT IN NATURE. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S LAKE  
REGION TO MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE AND CLOSE TO 70 ALONG EAST  
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S AREA-WIDE  
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONTINUED SYNOPTIC RIDGING AND A  
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.  
HOWEVER CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON, AS THE PERSISTENT RIDGING  
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE PAST WEEK FINALLY BEGINS TO GIVE WAY BY  
LATE THIS WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE BEGINNING OF  
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN QUIET IN NATURE. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH  
PROPAGATING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL  
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM. THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE AN ASSOCIATED  
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN  
UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND AND REACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE  
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD  
ACROSS THE PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS  
MODERATING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE  
BOUNDARY MAY UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK JUST TO THE  
NORTH OF OUR REGION. AT THIS POINT, THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS  
DO NOT INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF MUCH MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY  
ALTHOUGH THE EXTRA LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY COULD ACT TO  
PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST AROUND  
THE RIDGE BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL REMAIN SO LOW THAT IT IS NOT EVEN  
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL  
REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S DURING THE DAYTIME. OVERNIGHT, LOWS ARE  
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 50S AROUND THE LAKE REGION TO THE LOW TO  
MID 60S ELSEWHERE WITH THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST UPPER 60S TO NEAR  
70. THESE LOWS BEGIN TO INCREASE A TAD BY MID WEEK. PROBABILITIES  
DERIVED FROM MODEL ENSEMBLES AND THEIR TRENDS RENDER A FAIRLY  
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO. BASICALLY, A  
PERSISTENT PLEASANT FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
AVIATION VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS  
ENE 5-10 KTS DURING THE PEAK OF THE DAY TODAY AND BECOMING LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LESSEN AS WE  
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO OUR WEST. SEAS WILL  
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS (3-5  
EXTREME NORTHERN WATERS OFFSHORE PALM BEACH AT TIMES DUE TO GROUND  
SWELL), AND 1 TO 2 FEET OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
BY EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, WINDS WILL START TURNING MORE NELY  
AGAIN AND INCREASE A BIT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO  
BUILD AGAIN TO OUR NORTH BEHIND A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM.  
 
HOWEVER, A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC  
NE OF THE ISLANDS IS ALREADY GENERATING ENERGY THAT IS REACHING  
PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN PALM BEACH WATERS AS A GROUND SWELL.  
THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE NNE THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND WITH A LARGE FETCH TO ITS WEST GENERALLY POINT IN OUR  
DIRECTION. THE RESULT IS A 10-12 SECONDS SWELL BEGINNING THE SPREAD  
SOUTH ALONG OUR EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY PART OF  
NEXT WEEK. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED BUT ALONG  
THE EAST COAST THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SEAS ALONG THE PALM  
BEACH WATERS WHERE THEY WILL BE PEAKING IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE  
DESPITE WINDS NOT BEING THAT STRONG. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN  
SOME ROUGH SURF PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALM BEACH WATERS EARLY TO  
MID NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
BEACHES
 
 
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
DUE TO THE SWELL IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE PALM BEACH COAST (SEE  
MARINE SECTION ABOVE), A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN  
PLACE FOR THE PALM BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. CONCERNS FOR ROUGH SURF ALONG THE PALM BEACHES WILL ALSO  
INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL  
REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE FOR BROWARD AND MIAMI THROUGH THE WEEKEND,  
IT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART  
OF NEXT WEEK AS SOME OF THAT SWELL SPREADS FARTHER SOUTH.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MIAMI 83 70 83 68 / 0 0 0 0  
WEST KENDALL 83 65 83 63 / 0 0 0 0  
OPA-LOCKA 82 67 82 66 / 0 0 0 0  
HOMESTEAD 80 67 82 66 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 69 82 68 / 0 0 0 0  
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 69 81 67 / 0 0 0 0  
PEMBROKE PINES 82 67 82 65 / 0 0 0 0  
WEST PALM BEACH 81 68 82 66 / 0 0 0 0  
BOCA RATON 82 68 82 66 / 0 0 0 0  
NAPLES 83 66 82 63 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.  
 
AM...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...HADI  
LONG TERM....HADI  
AVIATION...PS  
 
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