461
FXUS62 KMFL 211749
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1249 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW DRIER, COOLER AIR TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP-LAYERED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN CANADA WILL PROGRESS NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN U.S., OUR WIND FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY THE END OF SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, THE UPPER 40S ALONG COASTAL SOUTHWEST FLORIDA,
AND INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN METRO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A MODERATING TREND WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE AREA. WIND CHILL VALUES TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS GLADES,
HENDRY, AND COLLIER COUNTIES WITH MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SAVE FOR SOME HIGHER VALUES AT THE
WARMER ATLANTIC COAST. IF THE WIND IS A TAD WEAKER THAN FORECAST
TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER BUT THE WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY NOT DROP TOO MUCH AS THE WIND WILL PLAY
LESS OF A FACTOR IN THAT CALCULATION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
THE BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO
MIGRATE ENE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SFC-850MB WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE ENE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND WITH INCREASING DAILY HIGHS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND NEAR 80 ACROSS MOST AREAS BY MID WEEK.
MEANWHILE, LATEST GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH/LOW
COMPLEX ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS, SHIFTING FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN RESPONSE, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVER SOFLO, WITH PWATS BACK IN THE 1.2-1.5 INCHES RANGE BY TUESDAY.
MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN MOST DAYS DURING THE WORK
WEEK, WITH MOST SHOWERS REMAINING GENERALLY SHALLOW AND BRIEF.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
GENERALLY VFR WITH NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT WILL
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
A MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES TODAY, THEN GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 4-6 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN WINDS. GULF SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3-4 FEET DURING THIS TIME.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE PALM
BEACHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS
FROM A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 54 75 65 77 / 0 10 10 10
WEST KENDALL 50 76 60 78 / 0 10 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 53 76 62 79 / 0 10 10 10
HOMESTEAD 53 76 63 77 / 0 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 54 73 65 76 / 0 10 10 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 54 73 65 77 / 10 10 10 20
PEMBROKE PINES 54 77 64 80 / 0 10 10 10
WEST PALM BEACH 52 73 63 77 / 10 10 10 20
BOCA RATON 53 75 65 78 / 10 10 10 20
NAPLES 47 72 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...RAG
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