388
FXUS62 KMFL 150554
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1254 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1249 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FAVORING EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON THURSDAY,
BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE MORNING HOURS AND MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TO
THE LOWER 40S FOR COASTAL METRO AREAS. APPARENT TEMPERATURES
COULD DROP INTO THE MID 20S AROUND THE LAKE, WITH MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL METRO AREAS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL LOCAL WATERS
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
BETWEEN 25-30KTS. THIS BREEZY WESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ACROSS COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES
BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 136 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN TERMS OF LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES AS NBM
PROBABILITIES OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 40-60%
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ALSO LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE REMAINING INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA, AND
COULD BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 FORECAST PACKAGES.
BREEZY WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS LOCAL WATERS
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE
ISSUED FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS WITH THIS UPDATE. ADDITIONALLY, BREEZY
WEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ACROSS COLLIER
COUNTY BEACHES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
ENSEMBLES GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH GLOBAL SOLUTIONS, DESCRIBE A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A DEEPENING
MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE, PUSHING THE 540/DAM INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC, AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE AREA DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING AND SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF SOFLO.
TODAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN AS THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH
PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING 30-40 POPS FOCUSED OVER THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO TO DEVELOP, AGAIN FAVORING EAST
COAST LOCATIONS. THEN LATER TONIGHT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BEGIN
INCREASING NORTH-TO-SOUTH WITH THE ANTICIPATED FROPA.
THURSDAY EARLY/MID MORNING SEEMS TO BE THE WINDOW FOR THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS POSSIBLE (50-70
POPS AREA-WIDE). MODEL PWATS SHOW VALUES AROUND 1.5", ALONG WITH
HREF-QPF MAX AROUND 1". LIFTING/DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINS POOR AS THE
PARENT TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX WILL BE PULLING NE INTO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LIMITED POOL OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN-MOST AREAS OF THE CWA FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS
AND AROUND CENTRAL/EASTERN MIAMI-DADE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
SOFLO, WITH COASTAL AREAS HITTING LOW 80S. THEN TEMPERATURES COOL
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES WITH INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY, KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S INLAND, AND LOW-MID 70S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
LONG TERM CONSENSUS SHOW SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER SOFLO VEERING NORTHWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DESCEND UPON MUCH
OF THE SE CONUS IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH. A SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW AND TRIGGER ANOTHER COLD AIR
ADVECTION EVENT INTO THE STATE.
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOFLO ARE STILL EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE SUNRISE, WITH COASTAL AREAS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S, AND INTERIOR/NORTHERN AREAS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. GLADES AND
HENDRY MAY EVEN DROP TO 30-31 DEGREES, FOR WHICH PROTECTIVE ACTIONS
AGAINST COLD WEATHER IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. ENSURE TO
WEAR WARM CLOTHING NOT ONLY FOR THE COLD AIR TEMPERATURES, BUT
ALSO FOR THE WIND CHILL VALUES, WHICH COULD DROP INTO THE MID 20S
AROUND THE LAKE REGION, AND LOW-MID 30S ELSEWHERE. THUS, CONDITONS
MAY REQUIRE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FRIDAY MORNING IF THESE
TRENDS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN UPCOMING GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR BEING SOFLO, WITH
COASTAL WARMEST AREAS STILL LINGERING THE UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES
THEN GRADUALLY WARM UP ON SATURDAY, BUT STILL REMAINING AROUND
THE LOW-MID 70S. THEN ON SUNDAY, MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST THE ONSET
OF ANOTHER COOL DOWN WITH YET ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.
UNCERTAINTY IN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED AND CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED REGARDING HAVING A DRY FROPA FOR THE LATE
SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME. LOWS MAY AGAIN DROP INTO THE 30S
AND 40S, AND MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN DETERIORATING AFTER 09-10Z AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS WITH SHOWERS WILL
REQUIRE TEMPOS AND AMMDS THROUGH AROUND 15-16Z AS THE AREA OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON,
WINDS WILL VEER NW AND NNW BY THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS IN THE
25-30KT RANGE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SW TODAY OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT. OVER THE GULF, WINDS WILL
VEER FURTHER TO THE NW BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SHOWERS AND EVEN POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN THE OVERNIGHT TO
THURSDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT.
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL THE
BEACHES OF PALM BEACH COUNTY TODAY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE RISK
MAY INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES AS WINDS INCREASE
BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 74 45 69 59 / 40 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 76 40 70 53 / 40 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 75 44 70 57 / 40 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 76 44 70 57 / 40 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 44 68 59 / 50 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 73 44 69 59 / 50 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 74 42 69 56 / 40 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 71 42 68 57 / 50 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 73 42 69 57 / 50 0 0 0
NAPLES 71 40 67 50 / 70 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-
066.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING FOR FLZ069.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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