275
FXUS62 KMFL 301132
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
732 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 730 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
- DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL EAST COAST
BEACHES FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL
CONTINUE AT PALM BEACH COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
BISCAYNE BAY & ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
05Z MESOANALYSIS AND ACARS DATA FROM SOFLO AIRPORTS EARLY THIS
MORNING DEPICT THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION, WITH THE BOUNDARY NOW ELONGATED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS & SURROUNDING WATERS. WHILE THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE, A PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN A CONTINUATION OF BREEZY TO AT TIMES GUSTY EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE EAST COAST BETWEEN THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE ALLOWING FOR A SLOWING
OF WINDS AND ADDED ASCENT/LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
GENERATION. ACARS AND TOWR SOUNDINGS HAVE DEPICTED A GRADUAL DRYING
OUT OF THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MIXING
DOWN WHICH HAS LIMITED THE OVERALL SPATIAL EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT IN THIS TYPE OF SURFACE FLOW REGIME
WITH MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT, ISOLATED TO AT TIMES SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS. HOWEVER, RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
ACTIVITY VERTICALLY CAPPED WITH HEIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP THE BULK OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF QUICK MOVING SHALLOW SHOWERS
WHICH WILL DROP BRIEF BURSTS AT TIMES THROUGHOUT TODAY. WHILE MOST
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RECEIVE LESS THAN 0.50" OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS COULD PICK UP AN 1" TO
1.5" DURING THE REST OF TODAY.
THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED ENVELOPE OF DEEPER
LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY MOISTURE WILL ADVECT TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON A GRADUAL
LESSENING TREND ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY, THE EXPANSION OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND CONTINUATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO AT TIMES GUSTY CONDITONS REMAINING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH DEEPER LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT TO THE WEST AND OUT
OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY, ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOW TOPPED
SHOWERS BRISKLY MOVING ALONG IN THE EAST TO WEST FLOW.
A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA DUE TO
THE COOLING ASPECTS OF THE OCEAN BREEZE AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA PEAKING IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
INVERSE AS THE OCEAN BREEZE WILL KEEP WARM AND MUGGY CONDITONS ALONG
THE EAST COAST WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S WHEREAS INLAND AND WESTERN
LOCALES WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE WIDESPREAD 60S, EVEN
LOW 60S ACROSS COOL SPOTS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
A PERSISTENT EASTERLY BREEZE WILL REMAIN THE NORM THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALOFT, THE AXIS OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ADVECT
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS BY WEDNESDAY, GRADUALLY ELONGATING
AND WEAKENING IN INTENSITY AS 500MB PRESSURE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE DAY. UPSTREAM, AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND ADVECT EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. INTERESTINGLY,
A ASSORTMENT OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO DEPICT THIS LOBE OF VORTICITY SLOWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND CLOSING OFF INTO A CUT-OFF
LOW WHICH IS THEN FORECAST TO TRANSIT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE THIS SOLUTION STILL REMAINS TOWARDS THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, IT APPEARS A MORE ACTIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
MAY EVOLVE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT ALOFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE FROM THE EAST COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE
ON A SLOW MODERATING TREND WITH LOWER 80S ANTICIPATED ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND MID TO UPPER 80S (EVEN A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF LOW 90S
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND) ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
ISO/SCT SHRA AND BREEZY TO AT TIMES GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS/VIS IN AND AROUND SHRA IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SHRA IS EXPECTED TO END AT KAPF
THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED
BUT WAVES GRADUALLY LESSEN WITH HEIGHT AS A NORTHERLY SWELL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDES. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
COURSE OF TODAY BUT ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 7-8 FEET
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO SETTLE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
OVER THE GULF WATERS, SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY 1-3 FT WITH A
MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS
FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY THROUGH 2PM THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALWAYS
SWIM AT A GUARDED BEACH AND WHEN IN DOUBT, DON'T VENTURE OUT!
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 71 80 71 / 50 20 30 10
WEST KENDALL 82 67 82 67 / 50 20 30 10
OPA-LOCKA 81 70 82 70 / 50 20 30 10
HOMESTEAD 81 71 81 70 / 50 20 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 70 79 71 / 50 20 40 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 79 70 79 70 / 50 20 40 10
PEMBROKE PINES 82 71 82 70 / 50 20 40 10
WEST PALM BEACH 79 70 79 70 / 40 20 30 10
BOCA RATON 79 70 79 70 / 50 20 40 10
NAPLES 84 68 85 66 / 50 10 40 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...REDMAN
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