688
FXUS62 KMFL 060624
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
224 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 210 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED 50 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN
THREATS.
- A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY, WITH
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 103 TO 108F. THE
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. WEAR
LIGHT- WEIGHT, LIGHT COLOR CLOTHING AND STAY HYDRATED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
THE RECENT 00Z MFL SOUNDING INDICATES THAT THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS EVENING IS STILL QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. PWATS ARE
HOVERING AT AROUND 2.1 INCHES AND MLCAPE IS STILL BETWEEN 1500 TO
2000 J/KG. AS A RESULT, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE
GULF STREAM WATERS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE,
BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BE OBSERVED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OVER THE METRO. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MAJORITY OF
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS ALONG SEA-BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, SOME OF THE 00Z CAMS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SIGNAL FOR AN EARLY START FOR CONVECTION. AS THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND, THUNDERSTORMS COULD BEGIN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE DADE, AND BROWARD METRO AREAS BEFORE NOON. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THEN LOOK TO FOCUS OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
WITH THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS CENTERING ITSELF JUST OFF SHORE OVER THE
BAHAMAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 500 MB HEIGHTS
MAY CLIMB INTO THE 591-593 DAM RANGE, WHICH WOULD BE WITHIN THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT THE SURFACE, THE MORE DOMINANT
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC, BUT WITH IT'S
POSITIONING FURTHER EAST, THE OVERALL WIND REGIME MAY SHIFT A TAD
MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW A STRONGER GULF
BREEZE, WHICH WOULD ADVANCE FURTHER INLAND AND KEEP THE ATLANTIC
BREEZE PINNED FURTHER EAST. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER CHANCES FOR
STORMS OVER THE MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD METRO AREAS. IN ANY CASE,
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, 90TH PERCENTILE PWATS, AND PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEAVY AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS.
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH
TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY TRENDING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY TODAY, FIGURING THAT EARLY
CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP MOST AREAS OVER THE METRO FROM
CLIMBING OVER HEAT INDICES OF 105 F AND LIMITING THE WINDOW OF TIME
FOR HOTTEST CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
ISOLATED URBAN LOCATIONS DO SEE HEAT INDICES UP TO 108 F FOR A SHORT
TIME. THERE IS STILL WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS MOST OF
SOFLO, AFFECTING SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS WITHOUT PROPER HYDRATION AND
COOLING.
FOR TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION, LEADING TO MODERATE AND MAJOR HEATRISK. ONCE AGAIN,
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER
INTERIOR SOFLO. HOWEVER, PWATS LOOK TO START TRENDING DOWN, SO
POPS ARE A LITTLE BIT LOWER THAN FOR MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES START THE PERIOD WITH SOME POSITIONING DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE MERGING OF SHORTWAVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT
WILL AFFECT THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND. THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WEEK THERE'S UNANIMOUS CONSENSUS ON A MOSTLY ZONAL
NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN, WITH A FILLING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE MS/TN
VALLEYS. THE UPSTREAM DIFFERENCES WILL MAINLY INFLUENCE THE TIMING
OF THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND, BE IT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FOR THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH FLORIDA
AREA, NO DEEP-LAYER SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OF CONCERN WILL BE THE BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BOTH THE NAEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES DEPICT NEAR
RECORD 500MB HEIGHTS BY WEDNESDAY, WITH H5 AND H7 HEIGHTS REMAINING
IN THE TOP 10TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THE RAW EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EXCEED
WHAT THE MODEL TYPICALLY FORECASTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AN EFI OF
80-90% AND AN ANALYSIS OF THE ENSEMBLE CDF INDICATES THAT MANY OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NEARING THE MODEL CLIMATE EXTREMES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AS IT RELATES TO MODEL FORECASTS. THE NAEFS AND ECMWF
SUITE ALSO IS FORECASTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ANOMALIES IN THE TOP
10TH PERCENTILE RELATED TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
ALL POINTS TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY, WHICH
SHOULD SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE THE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS FROM
MID-TO LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAT
ADVISORY LEVEL APPARENT TEMPERATURES (107-110) ARE EXPECTED, WITH
THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES CLIMBING FROM ABOUT 20%
(MID WEEK) TO 50% BY THE WEEKEND.
AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED, QPF ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS
DOES NOT DEPICT ANY TRACKABLE AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT QPF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN
BY THE SEABREEZES. WITH STEERING FLOW MAINLY IN THE SE DIRECTION,
EXPECT NOCTURNAL TO MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, WITH
MORE ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST COASTS LATER IN
THE DAY. THE COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY BE LIMITED EACH DAY AS A SAHARAN
AIR LAYER (SAL) IS FORECAST TO ADVECT THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN, WESTERN
ATLANTIC, AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER, BY THE WEEKEND,
MOISTURE AND FORCING MAY INCREASE A BIT AS A TUTT IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT WSW THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED, STORMS MAY BE A BIT
MORE NUMEROUS THAN TYPICAL AND NOT NECESSARILY FOLLOW THE TYPICAL
SEABREEZE PATTERN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR EAST COAST TERMINALS,
WHILE A GULF BREEZE WILL SHIFT WINDS WEST DURING THE DAY AT KAPF. THERE
IS STILL A SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BEGIN EARLIER THAN
THE LAST FEW DAYS, SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AND PROB30S STARTING AT
15-16Z FOR MOST MIAMI- DADE AND BROWARD TERMINALS. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM. ONCE AGAIN, MOST STORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY FOCUS ALONG INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET, WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST OVER THE GULF WATERS. DIURNAL SEA-BREEZES WILL SHIFT WINDS
MORE ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FOR BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP
INLAND EACH AFTERNOON, WITH ACTIVITY THEN SPILLING OUT INTO THE
WATERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS FROM BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. LIGHT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY STORM. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASE DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK
AS SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 91 79 92 81 / 70 20 50 10
WEST KENDALL 92 76 93 77 / 70 20 60 10
OPA-LOCKA 93 79 94 80 / 70 20 60 10
HOMESTEAD 92 79 93 80 / 50 20 40 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 80 92 81 / 60 20 50 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 91 79 91 81 / 70 30 50 10
PEMBROKE PINES 94 81 95 82 / 70 20 50 10
WEST PALM BEACH 91 78 92 79 / 70 20 60 10
BOCA RATON 91 79 91 81 / 60 30 50 10
NAPLES 91 78 92 79 / 40 20 40 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....HARRIGAN
AVIATION...NMP
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