865
FXUS62 KMFL 210738
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
238 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
THE FIRST "COOL" SNAP OF THE SEASON FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BEGIN
AS THE WORK WEEK COMES TO AN END THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DEEP LAYER OF NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL START TO USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS TODAY, WHICH ORIGINATES FROM THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. SKIES WILL
START OFF MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST THIS MORNING, BUT RAPIDLY
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WON'T FEEL TOO COOL TODAY, RANGING FROM THE LOW
TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR AND SW FL, TO THE UPPER 70S IN SE FL.
THE START OF THE COOLING TREND WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE TONIGHT,
AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AROUND THE INTERIOR AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AREAS, WITH LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE IN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF
DRY AND COOL AIR. WITH THE ENTRY OF THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR
MASS, THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOUTH FLORIDA THE COLDEST
OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE LAST WINTER. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE MID-40S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INTERIOR
SOUTHERN FL, WITH THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH FL IN THE 50S, EARLY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TREND 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION. SOME LOCATIONS, TO THE NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY, MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE, BY FAR,
THE COOLEST DAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT
EARLIER THIS WEEK.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT
EASTWARD, ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BEGIN TO VEER EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY. WITH THE VEERING WINDS AND INFLUENCE OF THE
ATLANTIC WARMTH, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND WARMER AND
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH TEMPERATURES KEEPING TO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S BY TUESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR MASS,
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY THROUGH THE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING AS A
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FL AFTER 14Z. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING, REMAINING NORTHERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS
TODAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KTS IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
4 TO 7 FEET OVER THE GULF WATERS, AND 5 TO 8 FEET OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY THIS WEEKEND
AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS LIGHTEN AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 236 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE GULF BEACHES TODAY,
AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON FRIDAY. ALONG THE ATLANTIC, THERE WILL
BE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE PALM BEACHES TODAY, WHICH
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 55 72 53 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 80 51 73 50 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 80 54 73 52 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 80 53 73 53 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 55 71 53 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 55 71 53 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 81 54 74 53 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 77 53 71 51 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 79 53 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 74 55 72 53 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GMZ656-657.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.
SHORT TERM...CULVER
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...CULVER
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