027
FXUS62 KMFL 091117
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
617 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
- FOG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING PRIMARILY ACROSS SW FLORIDA AND THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE.
- DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT BELOW ANY RECORD VALUES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE AXIS OF A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST TODAY AS STOUT TROUGHING PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COUNTRY. NEVERTHELESS, ITS INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FELT AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS PLENTIFUL DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH FL, AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. STRENGTHENING EASTERLY-SOUTHEATERLY FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION AS DEPICTED BY HREF AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ONCE AGAIN PRESENT
A THREAT OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG EACH NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DECOUPLE. THE RESULTING VISIBILITIES COULD DROP BELOW ONE MILE AT
TIMES WITH VISIBILITY IN SOME AREAS DROPPING BELOW ONE QUARTER OF
A MILE AT TIMES, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS COMMUTING CONDITIONS.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S OVER
THE INTERIOR, AND MID 60S ACROSS THE EAST COAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN US, BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND SUFFICIENT SUPPORT TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE EAST COAST
AND LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. TO THAT EFFECT, KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40%
RANGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S NEAR THE INTERIOR AND IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE EAST
COAST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, WITH SOME
GUIDANCE KEEPING ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND TRYING TO
DEVELOP DISTURBANCES OVER THE GULF, ALL OF WHICH COULD RESULT IN
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY-THURSDAY, AND GENERALLY COOL
TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE. THE NBM DEPICTS
THIS SCENARIO FAIRLY WELL WHILE ALSO ACCOUNTING FOR THE REMAINING
UNCERTAINTY, SO WE LEFT IT FAIRLY UNCHANGED WITH THIS FORECAST
CYCLE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE LATE MORNING, REACHING
THE 10-15KT RANGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
A MODERATE EASTERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES BUT
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW EACH DAY. CONDITIONS WILL EVOLVE TOWARDS THE
BACK HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 70 81 69 / 0 0 0 10
WEST KENDALL 81 64 82 64 / 0 0 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 81 68 82 67 / 0 0 0 10
HOMESTEAD 81 69 82 68 / 0 0 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 70 80 68 / 0 0 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 70 80 69 / 0 0 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 81 68 82 66 / 0 0 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 81 69 81 67 / 10 0 0 10
BOCA RATON 81 70 82 67 / 0 0 0 10
NAPLES 84 64 82 65 / 0 0 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...RIZZUTO
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