297
FXUS62 KMFL 130505
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
105 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 101 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
- HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS DURING
EXTENDED PERIODS OUTDOORS.
- DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES
OVERALL HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND PUSH TOWARDS THE COASTAL
AREAS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN EASTERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. A HAZY SAHARAN AIR MASS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS
AT LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. WITH DRIER AIR AT MID-LEVELS, A
FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. EXPECT MID 90S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST, GETTING WARMER AS YOU HEAD WESTWARD WITH
UPPER 90S ACROSS SW FLORIDA. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 105-111 DEGREES ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MASS DUE TO THE SAHARAN DUST, WIDESPREAD PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
PROBABLY BE CLOSER TO THE 105-107 DEGREE RANGE. AS A RESULT, A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED WITH THIS UPDATE THIS MORNING. WHILE THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STEALING THE SHOW, THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE QUITE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MOST OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREA
STRUGGLING TO DIP BELOW 80. LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND
TAKE ACTION WHEN YOU SEE SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. FOR MORE ON WHAT YOU CAN DO TO PREPARE FOR AND MITIGATE HEAT
ILLNESS, VISIT READY.GOV/HEAT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-
WEEK, AND WILL BE PROPAGATING WESTWARD INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A LIGHTER FLOW REGIME, WITH VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
OVERNIGHT, AND ONSHORE FLOW DOMINATED BY SEA BREEZES ALONG EACH
COAST. DRIER SAHARAN AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN FOR AT
LEAST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
WITH THE SEA BREEZES ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS EACH AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE - AROUND 20-30% - MAXIMIZED ACROSS
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND SAL IMPACTS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO THE 30-40% RANGE, STILL
MAXIMIZED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA AS SEA BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION. LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
EACH DAY. HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL WILL BE EXPLORED EACH DAY. LIMIT
STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND TAKE ACTION WHEN YOU SEE SYMPTOMS
OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. FOR MORE ON WHAT YOU CAN DO TO
PREPARE FOR AND MITIGATE HEAT ILLNESS, VISIT READY.GOV/HEAT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATER THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE BEST CHANCE OF
IMPACTING PALM BEACH AND BROWARD SITES, SO LEFT VCTS OUT OF MIAMI
DADE SITES FOR NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. MODERATE EAST- SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO PREVAIL WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAINING 3 FEET OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 96 80 95 80 / 20 20 10 0
WEST KENDALL 96 77 96 77 / 20 20 10 0
OPA-LOCKA 97 80 97 80 / 20 30 20 10
HOMESTEAD 95 79 94 79 / 10 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 95 81 94 81 / 20 30 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 95 80 94 81 / 20 30 20 10
PEMBROKE PINES 98 81 97 82 / 20 30 20 10
WEST PALM BEACH 95 79 95 79 / 30 30 20 10
BOCA RATON 93 80 93 80 / 30 30 10 0
NAPLES 94 78 94 79 / 10 10 10 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RIZZUTO
LONG TERM....RIZZUTO
AVIATION...RIZZUTO
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