072
FXUS62 KMFL 281823
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
223 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 203 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
- MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
THE DRY AND SUNNY FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE RECENT 12Z MFL UPPER AIR SOUNDING
CONTINUES TO SHOW QUITE A DRY PROFILE OVERHEAD, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE WITHIN
THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND WITH STRONG CAPPING
INVERSIONS WITHIN THE DRIEST LAYER OF 700 AND 850 MB, CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON ARE NEAR 0. SCATTERED CUMULUS
WILL DEVELOP AS SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COAST, WHILE WESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL BE COMMON ALONG
THE GULF COAST. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
THE GULF AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN.
HIGHEST CHANCES OF 50% TO 60% WILL FAVOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ENJOY ONE LAST DAY OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
TODAY THANKS TO THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND THE PRESENCE OF AN
ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. PWATS OVERNIGHT REMAINED
IN THE 1-1.5" RANGE, AND ACARS DATA AND THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWED
A SUBSTANTIAL POCKET OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 850-200MB. HIGH-RES ENSEMBLE
DATA SUGGEST THESE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED
TODAY, WITH SUSTAINED SUBSIDENCE, SUNNY SKIES, AND NEAR ZERO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
A GRADUAL TRANSITION PERIOD WILL BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GULF; AS IT DOES, SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL USHER A MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS OVER THE AREA,
WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO RISE BACK INTO THE 1.8-2.0 INCH RANGE. BY
TUESDAY, THE INFLUENCE OF THIS IMPULSE AND THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA (WITH POPS IN THE 50-60% RANGE).
CAMS SUGGEST ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK,
STARTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST FL AND DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 70S
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND DOWN INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MUCH-
DISCUSSED NOR'EASTER DRIFTS NORTH AND DISSIPATES. NEAR THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC,
BRINGING THE RETURN OF EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE, WITH PWATS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
HOVERING NEAR 2 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE
CONTINUED SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON. STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FAVOR
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA DUE TO THE STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S
AREAWIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
SEA BREEZES ARE ALREADY PUSHING INLAND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA,
SHIFTING WINDS SOUTHEAST FOR ALL EASTERN TERMINALS. MEANWHILE, A
GULF BREEZE WILL SHIFT WINDS WEST AT KAPF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTING KAPF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NOR'EASTER DIMINISHES THIS WEEK AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, LINGERING NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL
WATERS TODAY, GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WAVE
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FEET RANGE
TODAY. BY TUESDAY, ALL LOCAL SEAS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 1-3 FEET
RANGE. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE TUESDAY ONWARDS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LIKELY ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLES TODAY. OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO OUT-PERFORM GUIDANCE BY
A DECENT MARGIN, LEADING US TO ANTICIPATE TIDAL GAUGES TO REACH
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN TODAY. AS SUCH, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE, WHILE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE, WHERE
MINOR STAGE COASTAL FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE.
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALSO CONTINUES FOR ALL ATLANTIC COAST
BEACHES AS AN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY SWELL CONTINUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 74 86 75 86 / 10 60 50 70
WEST KENDALL 73 86 74 86 / 10 70 40 70
OPA-LOCKA 73 87 74 86 / 0 60 50 70
HOMESTEAD 74 87 75 86 / 10 70 50 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 86 74 86 / 0 50 50 70
N FT LAUDERDALE 74 87 75 86 / 0 50 50 70
PEMBROKE PINES 73 86 74 86 / 0 60 50 70
WEST PALM BEACH 73 88 74 86 / 0 40 40 70
BOCA RATON 73 87 74 86 / 0 40 50 70
NAPLES 73 86 73 86 / 20 60 60 80
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....NMP/ATV
AVIATION...NMP
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