656
FXUS62 KMFL 192212
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
612 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 542 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
- STRONGER WIND GUSTS CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK ALONG WITH
HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ELEVATED SEAS AND NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED.
- DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED WEAK
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS SE FLORIDA.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
IT IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY OUT THERE TODAY WITH RESPECT TO ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
PWATS RANGING BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.3", WHICH ARE WITHIN THE 20TH AND
30TH PERCENTILES FOR THE DATE ACCORDING TO HREF GUIDANCE. BOTH THE
12Z MFL AND REGIONAL ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW AN IMMENSE DRY LAYER IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IN TANDEM WITH A DISTINGUISHABLE MOIST LAYER
IN THE LOWER LEVELS ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE FIRST 1-3 KM OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. LOOKING AT THE BIGGER PICTURE AS TO WHY THIS ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR IS IN PLACE, A SHARP LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH HAS CONTINUED
TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA, ALLOWING DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO OCCUR ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF IT. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) SHOWS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE READING 1035 MB (WHICH REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER
ECHELON OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) STILL CENTERED WELL TO
OUR NORTH AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS IN
PENNSYLVANIA. TO OUR SOUTH, WE CONTINUE TO HAVE A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND NEAR THE PROXIMITY OF NORTHERN
CUBA, WHICH IS WHERE WE PRECISELY FIND THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT
(GENERALIZED PWATS OF 1.5-2.0") WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INHABITING THIS MARITIME REGION.
DESPITE OUR ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BEING SO DRY, WE ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS (COVERAGE OF 10-20% AS PER OUR POPS)
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AS THEY MOVE BRISKLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG OUR PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW (WHICH
CONTINUES TO BE CAUSED BY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RECORD-STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH). GIVEN THE OVERALL LAYOUT OF THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
TODAY, THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED AND SHALLOW-
LAYERED AS THEY SWIPE ACROSS OUR PENINSULA. THIS LIGHT TO PERHAPS
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ABLE TO PENETRATE FAR
ENOUGH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON TO POSSIBLY BRING SOME FLIMSY RAINFALL
TO THE INTERIOR AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ONCE WE LOSE THE COMPONENT OF
DIURNAL HEATING TONIGHT, ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY
CONFINED TO THE EAST COAST AS THEY PUSH ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
SHOULDN'T BE MORE THAN JUST SOME NUISANCE RAIN TO MIST AT TIMES WITH
NO FLOOD THREAT TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, IT WILL
STAY BREEZY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO AROUND 25-35 MPH.
SHOULD BE A COPY AND PASTE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW, WITH A PLETHORA OF
DRY AIR STAYING IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BUT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS, MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH POPS BELOW 20%. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS SHIFTING A BIT TO THE NORTH
TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER TOMORROW, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW OUR WINDS TO
COME DOWN JUST BY A SLIVER, BUT TO NO AVAIL WITH RESPECT TO OUR
LOCAL IMPACTS. WITH MSLPS (MEAN SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE) EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AROUND THE VICINITY
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL EXISTING
ACROSS OUR REGION, IT IS FORECAST TO BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH NBM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NICE AND COMFORTABLE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY (WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND WHERE WE
SHOULD BE THIS TIME OF YEAR) AND TUESDAY DUE TO THE BREEZIER-THAN-
NORMAL CONDITIONS AND A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS HAVING
FILTERED DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND OUR STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO FOR THOSE ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
TO FEEL THE MODEST BUT PLEASANT DROP IN LOW TEMPERATURES; BUT THOSE
AROUND THE LAKE, OVER THE INTERIOR, AND ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL
ALREADY BE WAKING UP TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY
MORNING WHILE THE EAST COAST METROS WILL SETTLE FOR THE MID 70S.
HANG IN THERE, THE SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS COMING!
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
FOR THE MIDDLE OF END OF THIS WEEK, ENHANCED JET STREAM DYNAMICS
IN THE WESTERN US WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP TROUGH
OUT WEST, WHICH IN RETURN WILL STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL US AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
AT THE SAME TIME, GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A RETURN IN DEEPER
MOISTURE TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS. WITH UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG WITH
DIURNAL PROCESSES, RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN FOR
THE END OF THIS WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL AND UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL SHIFT TO THE SW AS THE REGION
WILL SIT ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH PATTERN, WHICH WILL
FAVOR THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SE FLORIDA BETWEEN 30-50%.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW MUCH RAIN COULD BE SEEN, BUT CURRENTLY
THIS SETUP IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO RESULT IN THE TYPE OF RAINFALL
WE SAW THIS PAST WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR SW FLORIDA TO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S FOR SE FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON ANY ONE TIME INTERVAL TO
EXPLICITLY INCLUDE IN TAF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT AND A SYSTEM NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE NE SWELL. STRONG WINDS AT 20-30 KTS
WITH GUSTS OCCASIONALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TODAY
BEFORE STARTING TO DECREASE MID-WEEK. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL REMAIN
10-14 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC TODAY AND 6-8 FEET IN THE GULF BEFORE
SLOWLY DECREASING IN THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT 8-10 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL
LOCAL WATERS, INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR ALL ATLANTIC COAST
BEACHES EARLY THIS WEEK AS STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SWELL
CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 7-9 FEET IN THE PALM
BEACHES SURF ZONE KEEPS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH THE BROWARD BEACHES ADDED TO THE ADVISORY ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 75 84 71 84 / 40 20 10 0
WEST KENDALL 73 85 69 85 / 30 10 10 0
OPA-LOCKA 74 85 70 85 / 40 10 10 0
HOMESTEAD 74 85 70 85 / 30 20 20 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 84 71 84 / 40 20 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 75 84 71 84 / 40 20 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 73 84 70 84 / 40 10 10 10
WEST PALM BEACH 73 83 71 84 / 40 20 10 20
BOCA RATON 74 84 71 84 / 40 20 10 10
NAPLES 69 85 66 84 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ168.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ172.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...AD
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...RIZZUTO
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