216
FXUS62 KMFL 212306
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
606 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SHOW A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATING
THE SE CONUS AND THE WEST ATLANTIC WATERS, WHILE DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
WV DATA, 12Z MFL SOUNDING, AND LATEST SFC ANALYSES DEPICT A
SYNOPTIC AND THERMODYNAMIC SCENARIO THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
OVERALL SUBSIDENCE, AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CAPE AVAILABLE
THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS TO
REMAIN OVER SOFLO WITH GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. MEANWHILE, SOME PERIODS
OF CLOUDY SKIES ARE POSSIBLE AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHALLOW CLOUD
DECKS LINGER FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOFLO. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY BUT WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE ATLANTIC SIDE
A LITTLE COOLER, WHILE THE WEST COAST HITS THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 50S NORTHERN
AND INTERIOR AREAS, AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S NEAR THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND, ZONAL FLOW TO WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING
ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A RATHER POTENT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GULF DURING
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
ALLOW FOR A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF AND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TOWARDS
SOUTH FLORIDA HEADING INTO MONDAY. WHILE SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY, MODEL GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER OR NEAR
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE SOME LINGERING DISAGREEMENTS AS FAR AS TIMING IS
CONCERNED IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE AS THE GFS GLOBAL AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN THAT OF THE ECMWF. WHILE
THE EXACT DETAILS STILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN, IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO MONDAY AND AT LEAST
PART OF TUESDAY AT THIS POINT. AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
CONCERNED, THIS WILL ALL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST KEEPS A LOW END CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS
THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY COULD BE HELD
DOWN A BIT DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AS THEY MAY ONLY RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S ACROSS MOST AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
AS THE STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC AWAY FROM THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
DRIER AIR WILL START TO BUILD BACK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS ZONAL FLOW RETURNS ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH FOR
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS WELL AS
THIS BEING TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ON THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW, SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT HEADING INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ESPECIALLY AT THE EAST METRO SITES, WITH AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO ENE AT
10KT BEFORE EXPECTED TO VEER EASTERLY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20KT
AROUND 15Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 15-20
KTS. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-7 FEET RANGE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.
ON THE GULF SIDE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AS WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE, WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS HAS BEEN EXTENDED AS ROBUST
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A LINGERING SWELL WILL KEEP
THE HIGH RISK IN PLACE A LITTLE LONGER. THE RIP RISK WILL
DECREASE BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 64 74 63 78 / 10 20 10 10
WEST KENDALL 60 76 59 80 / 10 10 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 62 76 61 80 / 10 20 10 10
HOMESTEAD 63 76 62 79 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 64 73 63 76 / 10 20 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 63 73 62 76 / 10 20 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 63 77 62 81 / 10 20 10 10
WEST PALM BEACH 62 72 60 76 / 20 20 10 10
BOCA RATON 63 74 62 77 / 20 20 10 10
NAPLES 57 77 59 76 / 0 10 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...JS
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