678  
FXUS62 KMFL 230740  
AFDMFL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL  
340 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
   
SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)
 
 
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY OVERACHIEVED, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR  
ALLEY AND ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. IN FACT, MANY LOCATIONS  
RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY UP TO 7 TO 8  
INCHES NEAR VIRGINIA KEY. THIS PERHAPS WAS A PRIMER FOR ADDITIONAL  
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES  
THIS WEEKEND.  
 
FROM THE TOP-DOWN, ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO  
HELP KEEP THE UPPER LEVELS MOIST. ADDITIONALLY, LOW TO MID LEVEL  
SHEAR/VORT AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND  
SUNDAY. H5 IMPULSES WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SHOWER AND T'STORM  
POTENTIAL AS THOSE WAVES MOVE OVER THE REGION. FURTHER, AS IF  
THERE WASN'T ENOUGH TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION, MODELS ARE SHOWING A  
MODEST SURFACE TROUGH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE REGION, WHICH WILL  
LIKELY LEAD TO MOVE CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE  
ATLANTIC COAST.  
 
ADDITIONAL HYDRO CONCERNS WILL BE PRESENT TODAY AND SUNDAY. IN  
FACT, COLLABORATED WITH WPC REGARDING TODAY'S ERO, WHICH SHOULD BE  
OUT LATER THIS MORNING. URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BOTH TODAY AND  
TOMORROW ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FELL YESTERDAY AND  
PERHAPS NEW AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) MAY  
FALL TODAY AND TOMORROW. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL REMAIN AROUND  
2.0" WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED  
FLOODING CONCERNS. WHAT ABOUT STORM POTENTIAL? INSTABILITY ON CAMS  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS GLOBAL MODEL  
RUNS, BUT STILL RATHER MODEST WITH ONLY ABOUT 1500-2000 J/KG OF  
CAPE EXPECTED. THINK A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN  
THE MORE ROBUST/WIDER UPDRAFTS BOTH TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.  
   
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
 
 
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK ARE THE THREE DAYS WITH DECENT  
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THUS FAR. OUTSIDE OF THOSE THREE  
DAYS...WELL...VERY QUESTIONABLE AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. EARLY NEXT  
WEEK, LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN MORE  
NORTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM  
PERIOD FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH SOUTH FL. BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES  
THROUGH, INCREASED LEVELS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STICK AROUND, KEEPING  
HIGH END POPS IN THE FORECAST (CAPPING AT 70% FOR NOW). THEN ONCE  
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE  
REGION, REDUCING POPS IN THE PROCESS. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,  
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND  
INTENSITY OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY PUSHING ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HAVE RAISED POPS  
FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF A FRONT IN  
PROXIMITY TO SOUTH FL, BUT WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN 50-60% FOR  
THE TIME BEING. WILL THIS COLD FRONT BE SOUTH FL'S FIRST REPUTABLE  
FRONT OF THE SEASON OR IS IT WISHFUL THINKING FOR THE HALLOWEEN  
WEEKEND?  
 
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN  
ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN  
THE MID-UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.  
 

 
   
AVIATION(06Z TAFS)
 
 
OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND T'STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS  
CYCLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM MID MORNING ONWARD. BRIEF  
VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN  
CONVECTION TIMING AND COVERAGE PRECLUDES PROBS AT THIS JUNCTURE.  
SHORT FUSED TEMPOS WILL BE LIKELY ON SATURDAY. AGAIN SOME MVFR VIS  
AND CIGS WILL BE REALIZED, BUT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE CYCLE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, MARINE CONDITIONS  
APPEAR RATHER FAVORABLE ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS.  
HOWEVER, AGAIN THERE STILL COULD BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND  
AROUND SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. ADDITIONALLY, STRONGER STORMS  
MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH MAY LIMIT VISIBILITY ALONG WITH  
CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING. BY TUESDAY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES  
DECREASE WITH OVERALL FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR  
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK BEFORE CONDITIONS START TO DECLINE TOWARD THE  
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND.  
 

 
   
BEACHES
 
 
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY. THE OVERALL RIP  
CURRENT RISK WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE BROWARD  
AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WATERS. IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR PALM  
BEACH WATERS TO IMPROVE SO A MENTION OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP  
CURRENTS FOR THOSE AREAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. ON SUNDAY A  
MODERATE RIP CURRENT THREAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MIAMI 86 76 86 75 / 60 50 80 40  
WEST KENDALL 87 74 87 73 / 60 50 70 40  
OPA-LOCKA 87 75 86 74 / 60 40 80 40  
HOMESTEAD 85 74 84 73 / 60 50 70 40  
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 76 84 75 / 50 50 80 40  
N FT LAUDERDALE 85 76 85 75 / 50 40 80 40  
PEMBROKE PINES 85 74 85 73 / 50 40 80 40  
WEST PALM BEACH 85 75 86 74 / 40 40 70 40  
BOCA RATON 85 76 85 75 / 50 40 80 40  
NAPLES 88 74 87 74 / 30 30 70 40  
 

 
   
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ172-173.  
 
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168.  
 
AM...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...FRYE  
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FELL  
 
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI  
 
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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMIAMI  
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSMIAMI  
 
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