877  
FXUS62 KMFL 170734  
AFDMFL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL  
334 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
UPDATED AT 335 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2025  
 
- ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
 
- DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES BEGIN FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2025  
 
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE  
PENINSULA BY TONIGHT. UNDER THE DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND WITH  
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT, EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. FORCING FROM THE SURFACE LEVEL WILL  
LIKELY BE A COMBINATION OF COASTAL CONVERGENCE FROM THE  
BACKGROUND WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING  
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS THIS  
MORNING, AND A LITTLE BIT OF SEABREEZE INFLUENCE. WHILE MAYBE A  
LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THAN A TYPICAL SEABREEZE TYPE DAY, THE  
EVOLUTION WILL BE SIMILAR. EXPECT EAST COAST SHOWERS THIS MORNING  
TO SPREAD INLAND THROUGH MID-MORNING, WITH MORE ROBUST STORM  
DEVELOPMENT BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL SPREAD WEST AND  
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
 
ON FRIDAY, THE STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT DEVELOPED UNDER THE  
UPPER-LEVEL +PV ANOMALY WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO  
SHOW THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AT THE TOP END OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR  
THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. THE LOW-  
LEVEL RIDGING IS ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE, WITH HEIGHTS IN THE 90TH  
PERCENTILE VS CLIMO. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND IN SIMILAR PERCENTILE  
RANGES VS CLIMO. AND WHILE THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SEVERELY LIMITED, THE PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE FROM THE NEAR SURFACE SE FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS, RH,  
AND SUBSEQUENTLY HEAT INDICES QUITE HIGH. UNDER THE EASTERLY FLOW  
REGIME, THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA WINDS UP BEING THE  
WARMEST, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED  
LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 110. ALONG THE  
EAST COAST, LOW-TO MID 90S WILL BE MORE LIKELY WITH SCATTERED  
LOCATIONS HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2025  
 
THE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL  
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SO WILL THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND  
HIGH TEMPS/HEAT INDICES. WPC GUIDANCE BASED ON FORECAST HIGHS AND  
ENSEMBLE SPREAD INDICATES A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE THAT MAX HEAT  
INDICES WILL EXCEED 110 ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA  
AND EXCEED 105 ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF EACH DAY. BY NEXT WEEK, THE  
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WILL SHIFT WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND RAIN  
CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.  
WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING PREVAILING, EXPECT THE PRIMARY FORCING  
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TO BE THE SEABREEZE. THERE ARE SOME  
INDICATIONS THAT A SURFACE LOW RESULTANT FROM LEE CYCLOGENESIS  
NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF  
FLORIDA EARLY TO MID-WEEK. WHILE THIS MOST LIKELY WON'T DIRECTLY  
IMPACT SOUTH FLORIDA, IT COULD DISRUPT THE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME  
AND RESULT IN CONVECTION ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION  
RATHER THAN MOSTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2025  
 
ANOTHER LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS FAR AS WHEN A SHOWER OR STORM  
COULD IMPACT OUR EAST COAST TERMINALS. THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE  
FROM SUNRISE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON, WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING  
INLAND AFTER THAT. THE PROBABILITY OF STORMS IMPACTING APF IS  
HIGHER THAN ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THIS IS MOST LIKELY LATER  
THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20KTS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2025  
 
CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ATLANTIC WATERS  
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TODAY. AS THE CALMER CENTER OF THE  
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DRAWS NEARER WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW HEADLINE  
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY AGAIN  
TODAY BUT A PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BEGINNING  
TOMORROW AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MIAMI 90 81 91 80 / 70 10 10 10  
WEST KENDALL 90 78 91 77 / 70 10 20 10  
OPA-LOCKA 92 81 93 80 / 70 10 10 10  
HOMESTEAD 90 81 90 80 / 60 10 20 10  
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 81 90 80 / 70 10 10 10  
N FT LAUDERDALE 90 81 90 80 / 70 10 10 10  
PEMBROKE PINES 93 83 94 82 / 70 10 10 10  
WEST PALM BEACH 90 80 90 79 / 60 10 10 0  
BOCA RATON 92 80 91 79 / 60 20 10 0  
NAPLES 93 77 94 77 / 80 30 30 10  
 

 
   
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN  
LONG TERM....HARRIGAN  
AVIATION...HARRIGAN  
 
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