683  
FXUS62 KMFL 162021  
AFDMFL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL  
421 PM EDT MON SEP 16 2019  
   
..THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEK
 
 
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS IN THE ATLANTIC DUE TO NORTHERLY  
SWELL FROM HURRICANE HUMBERTO...  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
HURRICANE HUMBERTO OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS IS FORECAST  
BY NHC TO MOVE EASTERLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK ALLOWING  
FOR THE WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY BEFORE SWINGING MORE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL  
ALSO BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH  
REDUCING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION  
TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN  
AREAS ON TUESDAY SHIFTING TO MORE SOUTHWEST REGION BY WEDNESDAY.  
 
HUMBERTO IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY TO THE EAST LATE  
THIS WEEK INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BRINGING A BREEZY TO WINDY  
NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO QUICKLY MOVE  
WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS  
WEEK, BUT THE COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.  
   
EXTENDED FORECAST
 
 
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING  
WEST-NORTHWEST FROM THE BAHAMAS LATE THIS WEEK ACROSS SOUTH  
FLORIDA NEXT WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL BRING IN DEEPER TROPICAL  
MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE GOING  
MORE NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK. THE SPEEDS  
WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE  
INCREASING TO BREEZY TO EVEN POSSIBILITY OF WINDY CONDITIONS BY  
LATE MID TO END OF THIS WEEK.  
 
A NORTHEAST SWELL FROM HUMBERTO WILL BE INCREASING THIS WEEK AND  
WILL GET TO 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND 2 TO 4 FEET  
IN REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK.  
IF THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS IS WITH THE SWELLS, THEN A HIGH SURF  
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH COUNTY FOR  
THE MIDDLE TO LATER THIS WEEK.  
 
THE BUILDING NORTHEAST SWELLS AND THE INCREASING NORTH/NORTHEAST  
WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD FROM 5 TO  
7 FEET TONIGHT TO 7 TO 9 FEET BY MID TO LATE WEEK, EXCEPT FOR THE  
ATLANTIC WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE THE SEAS SHOULD GET  
INTO THE 9 TO 12 FEET. THE GULF WATERS SHOULD SEAS OF 2 FEET OR  
LESS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE  
MID TO END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE, THE SCA CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN  
EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS.  
 

 
   
BEACH FORECAST
 
 
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST  
FRIDAY FOR THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. REST OF THE ATLANTIC  
BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO BE ON AN INCREASE FROM  
MODERATE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SHOULD GO TO HIGH CONDITIONS ON  
TUESDAY AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WEST PALM BEACH 76 90 76 90 / 20 20 20 20  
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 91 77 91 / 20 20 20 20  
MIAMI 78 92 77 92 / 40 20 20 20  
NAPLES 77 92 75 92 / 0 0 0 30  
 

 
   
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.  
 
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-  
671.  
 
GM...NONE.  

 
 
DISCUSSION...54/BNB  
MARINE...54/BNB  
BEACH FORECAST...54/BNB  
 
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