674
FXUS62 KMFL 290540
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
140 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS RESULTING IN
A BREEZY E/SE FLOW TODAY. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF GENERALLY 20-25 MPH
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, HOWEVER SOME GUSTS AROUND 30-35 MPH ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WE'VE SEEN SOME SCATTERED QUICK
MOVING SHOWERS ALONG THE SE FL COAST, AND ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE BEYOND WHAT THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING, SO WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 80 ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO, AND LOW TO MID 80S OVER SW FL. FAIRLY MILD EVENING EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S AROUND THE LAKE,
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO.
ON SATURDAY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, AND A
SHORT WAVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD. AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS SOUTH FL AND PWAT
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT BUT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH IN THE KEYS. THE E/SE FLOW WILL
REMAIN BREEZY WITH NON-CONVECTIVE GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 80 ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AND LOW TO
MIDDLE 80S OVER SW FL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC TO KICK OFF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. A SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY BEFORE A LARGE-SCALE
GREAT LAKES SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ENTERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY FOR MONDAY. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND THE MID-LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE TROUGHS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST CONVECTIVE
CHANCES REMAIN AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE EVERGLADES, AND PALM
BEACH COUNTY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES,
COOLER AIR ALOFT IS PRESENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE, AND ANY SEA
BREEZES THAT DEVELOP COULD POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS OR OTHER BOUNDARIES OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE
PENINSULA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STOUT AND WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS DEAMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY TRY TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN UNITED STATES
HEADING INTO MID-WEEK. A WARMING TREND WILL BE THE STORY WITH
WIDESPREAD 80S AND POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 90S IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW THE
LOWER TO MID 70S OVER THE EAST COAST URBAN HEAT ISLAND MOST NIGHTS
AS WELL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS AT TIMES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON, STARTING NEAR
KAPF AND KTMB AND PROPAGATING NORTHWARD, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A FRESH TO STRONG E/SE WIND FLOW WILL BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ON SATURDAY,
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
RANGE FROM 7 TO 9 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
ON SATURDAY. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FEET, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER GULF
WATERS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1204 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE TODAY, THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE COULD REACH 6 TO
8 FEET ESPECIALLY OFF OF THE PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTY COASTLINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTY BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 72 83 73 / 40 40 60 30
WEST KENDALL 82 70 85 70 / 40 40 60 30
OPA-LOCKA 81 72 84 72 / 40 40 60 30
HOMESTEAD 81 72 83 72 / 40 40 60 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 72 82 72 / 30 40 70 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 72 82 72 / 30 40 70 40
PEMBROKE PINES 81 73 83 73 / 30 40 60 30
WEST PALM BEACH 80 71 82 71 / 30 40 70 40
BOCA RATON 81 71 82 72 / 30 40 70 40
NAPLES 84 69 84 69 / 50 30 50 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ168-172.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...ATV
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