005
FXUS62 KMFL 290534
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
134 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 131 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS TODAY, FAVORING INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS. THE
MAIN HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK FOR MOST URBAN LOCATIONS.
- DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE
BROWARD AND PALM BEACH METROS DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING WILL FOCUS OVER INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AS THE ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND UNDER A
MORE DOMINANT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWED A
PRETTY MOIST ENVIRONMENT, WITH PWATS OF 1.9 INCHES. BUT RECENT
AIRCRAFT SOUNDING PROFILES FROM KMIA AND KRSW INDICATE THAT MOISTURE
MAY BE ON THE DOWNTREND, WHICH COULD BE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
APPROACHING SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL), WHICH IS MOSTLY OVER THE
CARRIBEAN SEA AT THIS TIME. WITH MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SQUARELY
OVER FLORIDA, LITTLE TO NO SHEAR, AND SURFACE HIGHS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF, FORCING WILL BE LACKING. MOST OF THE STRONGER STORM
ACTIVITY FOR TODAY WILL FOCUS ALONG THE GULF BREEZE IN SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA, WHERE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
SOME MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT AND WEAKER MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL HINDER THUNDERSTORM GROWTH, BUT WITH AMPLE
DCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG, IF A FEW CORES WERE TO GET ELEVATED, A FEW
STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS MAY BE A CONCERN. OVERALL, THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SAL WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION TOMORROW. PWATS WILL DROP TO
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND MID-LEVEL RH LOOKS TO DROP
BELOW 50%. AS A RESULT, POPS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON HAVE CONTINUED
TO TANK, WITH ONLY ABOUT A 20% TO 30% CHANCE AT MOST ALONG THE GULF
BREEZE IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE
DOMINANT WIND REGIME WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS, PUSHING THE ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE FURTHER INLAND AND KEEPING
EASTERN AREAS MOSTLY DRY AND SUNNY.
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ONE OF THE PRIMARY CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, WITH WIDESPREAD TO MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS ALL
URBAN LOCATIONS. THE MORE DOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO FOCUS ALONG SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, BUT A FEW
ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN DADE, BROWARD, AND PALM BEACH MAY SEE HEAT
INDICES NEAR 105 F. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY, WITH CONTINUED WAA FROM SOUTHEAST
FLOW. APPARENT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CLIMB 3 TO 4 DEGREES HIGHER FOR
MONDAY, WITH PROBABILITIES OF APPARENT TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 105
F BEING GREATER THAN 80% FOR PARTS OF THE NAPLES METRO. THE ISSUANCE
OF A HEAT ADVISORY IS LOOKING INCREASING LIKELY FOR COLLIER COUNTY,
BUT WILL PUNT THE DECISION OFF TO THE NEXT SHIFT FOR FURTHER
ANALYSIS. REGARDLESS, THESE CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT
PROPER COOLING AND HYDRATION. THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE RELIEF
OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
THE DRIER WEATHER WON'T LAST LONG WITH GUIDANCE SHOW A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE CAROLINAS, WHICH SENDS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, STEADILY RAISING
CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE 80% RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE
FILTERS INTO THE AREA. BUT EVEN WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD REMAIN RELAXED ENOUGH TO KEEP
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE, AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP. EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES PUSHING INLAND. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS WILL LIKELY DRIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR INTERIOR AREAS. BUT SOME STORMS MAY EITHER
DEVELOP OVER COASTAL METRO AREAS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, OR DRIFT
INTO THEM LATER IN THE DAY OR IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HEATRISK AT THE MODERATE TO MAJOR LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN EACH DAY. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
IN CASE A HEAT ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO KEEP REACHING THE LOW-MID 90S EACH DAY, WITH A FEW UPPER 90S
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AND WEST COAST LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.
L/V WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE AROUND 10KT AFTER 15-16Z, EXCEPT
APF WHERE WESTERLY GULF BREEZES WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. L/V
FLOW RETURNS AFTER 00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SSE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, BECOMING
SSW OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER COASTAL AREAS AND MOVE
OVER LAND AT TIMES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. SEAS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 2-3 FEET RANGE OR LESS
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 93 79 94 80 / 0 0 40 10
WEST KENDALL 94 77 95 77 / 10 10 50 10
OPA-LOCKA 95 79 95 80 / 0 0 40 10
HOMESTEAD 93 79 94 79 / 0 0 40 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 92 80 93 81 / 0 0 30 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 92 79 93 80 / 0 0 30 20
PEMBROKE PINES 96 80 97 81 / 0 10 40 10
WEST PALM BEACH 92 78 93 79 / 0 0 40 40
BOCA RATON 91 79 93 80 / 0 0 40 30
NAPLES 94 79 93 79 / 10 20 40 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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