620
FXUS62 KMFL 202235
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
535 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 534 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WELL
AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY AND INTO MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE NEAR OR LONG TERM FORECAST. DID ADD A FIRE
WX SECTION BELOW TO START HIGHLIGHTING THE LOW RH THREAT EARLY
NEXT WEEK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE, THE
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
BROAD AND EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE,
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON, WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE REGION, AND MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE TAKING PLACE, DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALONG WITH
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL
GENERALLY RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COASTS, HOWEVER, THEY
WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MAY RISE
TO AROUND 90 EACH AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SOME
OF THIS FOG WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME DENSE REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS IN SPOTS. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING, AND
THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON SUNDAY BEFORE AN AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OFF OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTLINE AND QUICKLY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD AND IT WILL PUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AS SUNDAY PROGRESSES. THE LATEST
GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THIS IS
ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR LATER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. GUIDANCE ALSO REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RACE OFF WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. WHILE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND LIFT OCCURRING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT A
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
EVENING, CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EXTREMELY
LIMITED. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE AS THEY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST
AREAS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COASTLINE, WHERE HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A STOUT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
WEEK BRINGING A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS TO SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE REGION WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TO RAPIDLY TIGHTEN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BREEZY AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON
TUESDAY AS WINDS START TO VEER AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN
THE DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL
BE CHILLY AS THEY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COAST. WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINING STRONG, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 AREA WIDE AND WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST TIME PERIOD OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE HAS TRENDED COLDER
ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS ON TUESDAY COULD
DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHILE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS ON TUESDAY
MORNING. WHEN THE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS FACTORED IN ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE EVEN
COLDER AS THEY COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WEST
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL
BE COMMON ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING ON TUESDAY, HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AREA WIDE. WHILE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE CHILLY TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN,
THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT MODERATION WHEN COMPARED TO TUESDAY
MORNING.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, A
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER AND BECOME EAST SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THIS MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT APF
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME SE 5-10 KTS AFTER
16Z, WITH AN AFTERNOON WESTERLY GULF BREEZE EXPECTED AT APF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, WHERE
WINDS MAY BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY EACH AFTERNOON DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS LATER ON SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4
FEET TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 2 FEET OR LESS ON SATURDAY. SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
DUE TO A LINGERING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE PALM BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE REST OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
AFTER A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY, COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. MIN RH
VALUES OF 20-30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH
FL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS, SO FIRE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. REGARDLESS, THE LOW
RH VALUES COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 67 83 65 86 / 0 0 0 20
WEST KENDALL 62 85 60 86 / 0 0 0 20
OPA-LOCKA 66 84 64 86 / 0 0 0 30
HOMESTEAD 67 84 64 86 / 0 0 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 67 82 63 86 / 0 0 0 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 67 82 64 86 / 0 0 0 40
PEMBROKE PINES 67 85 65 87 / 0 0 0 30
WEST PALM BEACH 65 83 63 86 / 0 0 0 50
BOCA RATON 65 82 63 86 / 0 0 0 40
NAPLES 64 82 63 77 / 0 0 10 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CMF
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