723
FXUS62 KMFL 022237
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
637 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
- DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL EAST COAST
BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR AND SW FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG, GUSTY
WIND AND HAIL.
- A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY BREEZE MAY BRING PERIODS OF
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EAST COAST METRO SHOULD SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR AND SW FL AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING TO MOVE TO
THE WEST ACROSS THE PENINSULA. SURFACE CAPE IS ABOUT 2500 J/KG
OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUNSHINE TODAY, AND
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN SW FL ARE 7-8 C/KM. 500 MB TEMPS
ACCORDING TO LATEST RSW ACARS SOUNDING IS -10 TO -12C. WITH
DECENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE, A FEW STRONGER STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS SW FL. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, ALTHOUGH HAIL CAN'T BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
ONLY OTHER CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS THE HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES WAS EXTENDED OUT THROUGH
SATURDAY, AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS WAS
EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE AXIS OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO
SLOWLY DEGRADE AND PUSH MORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE END
OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG TROUGHING FORMS IN THE MIDWEST REGION OF THE
COUNTRY. SIMILARLY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE 500MB HEIGHT
LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL NORTHWARDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA BEFORE DIFFUSING. STEADY MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS, (PWATS MAINTAINING BETWEEN 1.3-1.5 INCHES) ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY BELOW THE 850MB HEIGHT LEVEL. OVERALL, THE PRESENCE OF A
MID-LEVEL LOW AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATER THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE PREDOMINANT FLOW WILL
BE EASTERLY, AND THIS ALONG WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BOTH HELP PUSH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE GULF COAST FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY TODAY.
TAKING A LOOK AT HOW STRONG CONVECTION COULD BECOME TODAY, IT IS
NOTED THAT 500MB HEIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE
COLDEST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 25TH PERCENTILE
FOR THE DATE) AT -11 TO -13 DEG C. THESE COLDER VALUES ALOFT WILL
ACT TO STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHICH CAN HELP
OVERCOME SOME OF THE MORE STABLE DRY AIR ALOFT ABOVE THE 800-700MB
LEVEL. BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR ALOFT, HI-RES MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPICT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH AN INVERTED V
TYPE SETUP AS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN PRESENT. WHILE
MORNING ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO CONCENTRATE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, A NON-ZERO CONDITIONAL THREAT OF MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AS
THE EASTERLY BREEZE PUSHES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WESTWARD AND DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED. ALL IN ALL, CANNOT RULE
OUT A COUPLE OF STRONG CORES DEVELOPING THAT PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS OR
HAIL, ALTHOUGH THE RISK WILL BE LESS THAN 5% ACROSS THE AREA AND
THEREFORE NO SEVERE RISK HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER.
AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY, THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BE CONTINUING TO
ADVECT NORTHWARDS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THUS CONDITIONS SHOULD
STABILIZE MORE AS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL STILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH THE
STRONG SURFACE HIGH CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CIRCULATION AND THE LACK OF A FORCING MECHANISM OTHER THAN
THE SEA BREEZES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A MUCH LESS ACTIVITY DAY ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THERE WILL STILL BE
LOW END CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH THE
HOTTER TEMPERATURES BEING FELT ACROSS THE GULF COAST AREAS IN THIS
EASTERLY WIND REGIME.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN
IN FIRM CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AS THE PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLY
BREEZE CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
INFILTRATION OF SOME DRIER AIR AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST STATES, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A REDUCTION
OF RAIN CHANCES BOTH DAYS. THE INSTABILITY LADEN WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM WILL RESULT IN A MAXIMA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA EACH NIGHT BEFORE DIURNAL
ACTIVITY FOCUSES ACROSS INLAND AND WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER ALOFT, THE DRIER AIR AT THE
SURFACE MAY RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE 20-30% RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A LOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN LIFTING NORTHWARDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS STARTING ON
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 500MB FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IS
FORECAST TO VEER OUT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THIS FEATURE AS 500MB TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGIN TO REBOUND/INCREASE.
WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT EARLY
NEXT WEEK, MOISTURE WILL SETTLE AND POOL ACROSS THE AREA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP NEARBY AND PROVIDE SOME EXTRA
FORCING WITH THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. AS A RESULT, RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN RISE AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BACK TO 30-40% FOR
MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY 50-60% OR HIGHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
MOST AREAS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AS THE FRONT STALLS
AND RAIN COOLED AIR OCCURS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
ANY REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND THEN JUST ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
ESE WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
A FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 20-25 KTS DURING THAT TIME
FRAME. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 4-6 FT
RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
THE 2-3 FT RANGE ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF WATERS. FURTHER ELEVATED
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY TODAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
THE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS PERSIST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 72 82 72 82 / 20 10 10 30
WEST KENDALL 69 84 68 84 / 10 10 10 30
OPA-LOCKA 72 83 70 83 / 20 10 10 30
HOMESTEAD 72 83 72 83 / 10 10 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 80 71 80 / 20 10 10 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 72 80 71 80 / 20 10 10 40
PEMBROKE PINES 72 84 72 84 / 20 10 10 30
WEST PALM BEACH 71 81 70 81 / 10 10 10 30
BOCA RATON 72 81 71 80 / 10 10 10 40
NAPLES 69 87 67 88 / 30 10 0 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...CMF
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