703
FXUS62 KMFL 251101
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
701 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 700 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
- A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.
- WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
- THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AND PUSH INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
A POSITIVELY TILED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TODAY AND THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS SYNOPTIC
SET UP WILL HELP TO KEEP A LIGHT AND SEA BREEZE DRIVEN WIND FLOW
IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN TODAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO POOL AND INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION CAUSING PWATS TO RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, RANGING BETWEEN 0.8 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA TO 1.5 INCHES WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE CLOSER TO THE FRONT. BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGHOUT A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION, WHERE THE FRONT
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
LATER THIS EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS IN PLACE ALONG WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND ENOUGH
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, CONDITIONS WILL BE CONDUCIVE ONCE
AGAIN FOR SOME AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE FOG
COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA REDUCING VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS. ANY
FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, MID LEVEL TROUGHING QUICKLY GETS PUSHED EAST
AND SOUTH AS A LARGE AND STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF AND INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE, THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL WASH OUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRIER
AIR MASS TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY, THERE
COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LINGERING LOWER LEVEL IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A
BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
AND PUSH TOWARDS THE INTERIOR. WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE,
ANY SHOWER THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL REMAIN LOW TOPPED AND VERY SHORT
LIVED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 80
ALONG THE EAST COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
STRONG AND EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TO
END THE WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THE SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY
PUSH INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS. ANY SHOWER THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BE LOW TOPPED, HOWEVER, A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE
SEA BREEZES COLLIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
MOVING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL ONCE
AGAIN BEGIN TO CHANGE AND THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY BEFORE
SWINGING INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS HEADING INTO SUNDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, A "BACKDOOR" FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY COMES
INTO PLAY HERE AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN DISAGREEMENT
WHEN IT COMES TO THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE PARENT MID LEVEL
TROUGH. BOTH OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITE ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA, HOWEVER, THE
EURO SUITE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PUSHING A STRONGER TROUGH
CLOSER TO THE REGION THAN THE GFS SUITE IS. THIS ALSO CAUSES THE
GFS SUITE TO HOLD THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE LONGER AND DOES NOT
FLATTEN IT OUT AS MUCH AS THE EURO SUITE DOES. THE EURO SOLUTIONS
WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY, WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD DELAY THE HIGHER CHANCES TO SUNDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST
TAKES A BLEND OF THE FORECAST MODELS KEEPING A HIGHER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
IN ANY EVENT, ANOTHER VARIABLE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SET UP OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS A
LARGE AND STOUT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH TRIES TO
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS CREATING GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
HEADING INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FAST MOVING SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION ALONG THE BREEZE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
AREAS OF FOG OVER INLAND SOUTH FL EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR CEILINGS
AT APF SHOULD IMPROVE BY 14Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING BECOMING SE AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A WESTERLY
GULF BREEZE AT APF. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE DAY AROUND THE LAKE REGION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
A LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE BREEZE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, HOWEVER, THIS MAY GIVE WAY
TO A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATER
IN THE DAY. A GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, WHERE WINDS
MAY SHIFT AND BECOME WNW AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS EACH AFTERNOON.
SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS TODAY
AS THEY WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
AS A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THESE SEAS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE PALM BEACHES
TODAY AS A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 68 82 69 / 0 0 10 0
WEST KENDALL 84 62 84 65 / 0 0 10 0
OPA-LOCKA 83 66 83 68 / 0 0 10 0
HOMESTEAD 82 66 82 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 68 80 70 / 0 10 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 69 80 70 / 10 10 10 0
PEMBROKE PINES 84 68 84 69 / 0 0 10 0
WEST PALM BEACH 82 67 81 68 / 10 10 10 0
BOCA RATON 81 69 80 69 / 10 10 10 0
NAPLES 81 64 84 65 / 10 10 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CMF
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