564
FXUS62 KMFL 241104
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
704 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN THE AREA COULD PRODUCE LOWER
VISIBILITIES AND UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EVERGLADES AND WESTERN SUBURBS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AGAIN TODAY. AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
THE DEEP TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN US AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL START TO
LIFT MORE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER
SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) LOOKS TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE
THICKNESS OF THIS SAL IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE, BUT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO CREATE A DRIER LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE THAT PRODUCES LESS WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY. LIGHT FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION WILL CREATE A SETUP WHERE MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE OBSERVED OVER
INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE.
HOWEVER, SOME ACTIVITY CAN DRIFT TOWARDS THE COASTS AS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ONCE AGAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FORM OF
DOWNBURST WINDS BECAUSE THE SAL HELPS TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. STRONGEST STORMS ARE ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AGAIN WITH A
STORM FORMED BY CONVERGING BOUNDARIES OR CELL MERGERS. PRIMARY
IMPACTS TO MONITOR FOR WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING,
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
THE SAL WILL START TO FILTER OUT ON TUESDAY, ALLOWING FOR THE DEEP
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT (PWATS ~1.7-2.0") TO BE UTILIZED FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME OF DAY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH END POPS RISE TO 50-70% OVER THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS UP FROM 30-40% TODAY. POPS NEAR THE COASTS WILL ALSO BE
ABOUT 20% HIGHER TOMORROW WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. EVEN WITH THE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY, QPF IS STILL NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AT
GENERALLY 0.5-1.0" ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES
POTENTIAL FOR A MID-LEVEL LOW TO FORM OFF THE COAST OF CUBA AND
ADVECT NORTHWARDS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THAT COULD PROVIDE
SOME EXTRA UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION IF THE FEATURE FORMS
AS MODELED. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH THIS AS IT'S NOT
CLEARLY DEFINED ACROSS MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUITE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE 100-105F
RANGE, BUT SOME AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE INDICES
COULD REACH INTO THE 105-110F RANGE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, SURFACE
AND LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
BEGIN TO EXPAND BACK OVER THE REGION AND CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT BACK
TO AN EASTERLY OR EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THIS EASTERLY TO EAST-
SOUTHEAST REGIME WILL PRODUCE A PATTERN THAT IS COMMON IN THE
SUMMERTIME ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION BEING DRIVEN BY THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND BEING STEERED TOWARDS THE GULF COAST
AREAS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE WEAK SAL WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-WEEK AND
ALLOW FOR THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO BE UTILIZED FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THE SAME TIME, WE WILL BE
MONITORING FOR SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES AND VORTICITY MAXIMA FORMING
OFF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR THESE WEAK LOWS TO FORM, MAINLY IN THE MID-LEVELS
AND ADVECT CLOSE TO THE REGION. NEVERTHELESS, ABUNDANT MOISTURE
(PWATS 1.8-2.0+") WILL BE PRESENT FOR WED-FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND
FOR ANY VORTICITY AND DIURNAL HEATING INSTABILITY TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (60-80%) EACH DAY WILL BE
ACROSS INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS THE EASTERLY TO EAST-
SOUTHEAST WIND REGIME FAVORS THESE AREAS RECEIVING THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH
DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
LAKE REGIONS TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ALONG THE COASTAL
METROS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE SE AFTER 16Z TO AROUND 10
KTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SW AFTER 16Z AS A GULF BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MOSTLY INLAND AND AWAY FROM
TERMINALS, BUT VCTS IN PLACE AFTER 16Z WITH MONITORING FOR SHORT-
FUSED AMDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.
SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 1-2 FEET OR LESS EACH DAY ACROSS ALL OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
EACH DAY AND IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OVER THE WATERS, WHICH MAY
RESULT IN LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 92 79 92 79 / 30 10 30 40
WEST KENDALL 91 76 92 77 / 40 0 30 40
OPA-LOCKA 93 79 93 79 / 30 10 30 40
HOMESTEAD 92 78 92 79 / 30 10 30 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 79 91 81 / 20 10 20 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 92 80 92 79 / 20 10 20 40
PEMBROKE PINES 92 80 92 80 / 20 10 30 40
WEST PALM BEACH 93 78 93 78 / 20 10 30 30
BOCA RATON 91 79 91 79 / 20 10 20 30
NAPLES 92 77 93 77 / 20 10 20 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...RIZZUTO
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