727
FXUS62 KMFL 132302
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
602 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 556 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
- OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT, FAVORING EAST COAST METRO
AREAS.
- ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT COULD DROP ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON
THURSDAY, BRINGING REINFORCING COLD AIR AND MORE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
OVERCAST SKIES AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY THE EVENING AS WELL DUE TO A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS IS
LEADING TO CLOUDY SKIES AND STRATIFORM RAIN OVER SE FLORIDA.
RAINFALL RATES ARE VERY LIGHT, SO NO MAJOR HAZARDS WILL OCCUR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE GIVEN THE AMPLE CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT RAIN, LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR
MOST AREAS, BUT ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST COAST METRO.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
LATEST ENSEMBLES AND GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A DECAYING SFC
BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER SOFLO TODAY, AND MAYBE LIFTING A LITTLE
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL REQUIRE KEEPING SOME POPS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, 20-30 PERCENT, FAVORING THE EASTERN SIDE OF SOFLO. 00Z MFL
SOUNDING AND MODEL DATA KEEP PWATS IN THE 1.3-1.5" RANGE, FOR WHICH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1" STILL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, MODELS SHOW A MID LVL SHORTWAVE FEATURE MOVING AROUND
THE BASE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE
SHOWN MIGRATING EASTWARD, WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERING MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD/WESTWARD BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL FURTHER
FOCUS HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND
AROUND THE BROWARD/PALM BEACH METRO AREAS. MEANWHILE, A MORE
ROBUST SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN
FLORIDA BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S, WITH
SOME MID 60S AROUND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICT A FROPA REACHING THE AREA ON THURSDAY, WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING IN THE WED NIGHT-THU MORNING TIME FRAME
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATEST TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE PLACES THE BEST
CHANCES OF SHOWERS DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IN GENERAL, DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SEEM TO REMAIN POOR AS THE PARENT TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL NE INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AND WITH PREVAILING
CLOUD COVER, THE DAYTIME HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH
TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST ATTM. THIS,
HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE TO BE REVISED AND UPDATED AS NECESSARY.
50-70 POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS VEER NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE SE CONUS, TRIGGERING ANOTHER COLD/DRY
AIR ADVECTION EVENT. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WITH THIS ROBUST COLD AIR
MASS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE, WITH COASTAL AREAS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, AND INTERIOR/NORTHERN AREAS
IN THE LOW-MID 30S. FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY COOL
FOR BEING SOFLO, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO HIT THE MID-UPPER 60S.
TEMPERATURES THEN GRADUALLY WARM UP DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND THE LOW 70S IN GENERAL. THEN BY MONDAY, MODELS SEEM
TO SUGGEST ANOTHER POSSIBLE COOL DOWN WITH A FRONT APPROACHING THE
AREA. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE, SO
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY BEYOND THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UPDATED WITH NEW GUIDANCE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
ISOLATED SHRA IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WITH
THIS IN MIND, HAVE KEPT VCSH IN FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW AS WELL. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W/WSW AFTER
15-16Z TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING,
THEN CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE AND REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT
CRITERIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HAZARDOUS-LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS
FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE UNTIL THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 67 80 63 75 / 30 30 20 50
WEST KENDALL 63 80 60 77 / 20 30 20 50
OPA-LOCKA 66 80 62 76 / 30 30 20 50
HOMESTEAD 66 81 62 78 / 20 30 20 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 67 78 62 74 / 40 30 20 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 67 78 62 74 / 40 30 20 50
PEMBROKE PINES 65 80 61 75 / 30 30 20 50
WEST PALM BEACH 67 79 60 73 / 40 30 20 60
BOCA RATON 67 80 61 75 / 40 40 20 60
NAPLES 65 75 62 71 / 20 20 60 80
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...REDMAN
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