824
FXUS62 KMFL 022315
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
615 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 611 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
- A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY ALTHOUGH MOST
LOCALES WILL REMAIN DRY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF VALUES APPROACHING RECORD VALUES ALONG THE EAST
COAST FOR TODAY'S DATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
MESOANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THAT IS REPRESENTATIVE OF BEING LOCATED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. WHILE A LINE OF
WANING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO ADVECT EASTWARD, ACARS DATA FROM AREA AIRPORTS REVEAL AN
ATMOSPHERE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES (AND
ACCUMULATIONS) THIS AFTERNOON WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. DIURNAL MIXING WILL HELP MIX SOME OF THE DRIER
AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SPATIAL LIMIT OF
CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVERLAND. THE
AFOREMENTIONED BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER
IN AMPLE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AT ALL
THREE EAST COAST CLIMATE SITES (KMIA, KFLL, KPBI) MAY APPROACH,
TIE, OR EVEN BREAK MAXIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE DATE.
THE NBM QMD 50TH PERCENTILE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF SLIGHTLY
HIGHER VALUES THAN CURRENT FORECAST. ECMWF'S EXTREME FORECAST
INDEX (EFI) ALSO DEPICTS THE POTENTIAL OF NEAR-RECORD HEAT TODAY
WITH A CONTINUAL TREND OF HIGHER FORECAST VALUES TO THE RIGHT OF
THE CDF PROFILE. SLIGHT ALTERATIONS IN WIND SPEED AND CLOUD COVER
MAY MAKE THE DIFFERENT BETWEEN GETTING CLOSE TO OR TYING/BREAKING
RECORDS AT OUR EAST COAST CLIMATE SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY THAN NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT, LESSENING IN INTENSITY. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL OF A DECK OF LOW STRATUS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING ON WEDNESDAY, THE
STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND MIX OUT. COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS
COURTESY OF A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE INTO THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG ONCE AGAIN LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS INLAND
AND SW FLORIDA DUE TO WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT IN
THOSE AREAS AND ADEQUATE NEAR-SURFACE LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS SHOULD
BE MODERATE ENOUGH TO AVOID FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST OF THE EAST
COAST METRO, ALTHOUGH WON'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG FOR THE WESTERN
FRINGES OF THE METRO. LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES
BETWEEN 50-70% CHANCE FOR FOG TO LOWER VISIBILITIES TO 0.5 MILES OR
LESS ACROSS INTERIOR AND SW FLORIDA WITH 10-20% CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST. THEREFORE, AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR AND SW
FLORIDA WITH INLAND GULF COAST AND FAR WESTERN EAST COAST METRO
AREAS FORECAST TO SEE PATCHY FOG.
AS FAR AS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ENSEMBLES
SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
EXTENDING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL PREVENT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. FROM PENETRATING
SOUTHWARDS AS IT SHIFTS EAST, ALTHOUGH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
FROM THIS TROUGH WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARDS AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADD A SOURCE
OF LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE, IT WILL BE A
RATHER WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT INHIBITING
INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF SURFACE HEATING DUE TO IT ARRIVING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS, WHILE SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY, THEY
WILL BE OF THE WEAK VARIETY AND OF LIMITED DURATION WHICH LEADS TO
NO CONCERNS. THE SHOWERS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING WILL TARGET
MOSTLY SW FLORIDA AS FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE SW AND COASTAL
CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR ON THE GULF SIDE RATHER THAN THE ATLANTIC
SIDE LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH SW FLORIDA FIRST BEFORE SE FLORIDA. AFTER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASSES, OVERALL DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITH HIGHS TOMORROW AROUND 80 TO THE LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S OVER INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA TO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS PRESENCE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP DRY AND CALM WEATHER IN PLACE FOR THE
END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES,
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND
PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES, SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL ARISE AGAIN AS FLOW WOULD
SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE TROUGH ADVECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S., WHICH IN RETURN WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. GUIDANCE ALSO
HINTS THAT THIS TROUGH COULD BE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST THAN THE
SHORTWAVE IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, MEANING THAT IT WILL HAVE A
GREATER CHANCE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER, WITH THIS BEING AT
THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN THIS
TROUGH'S AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION AND THUS WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. REGARDLESS, NO MAJOR
IMPACTS FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S BY THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH
THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE OF THE FROPA. TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH
THIS UPDATE WITH THE ADDITION OF A BROKEN CEILING AT 700 FEET
ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 15Z WITH CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HAZARDOUS WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITH CAUTIONARY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE GULF AND 2-4 FT IN THE ATLANTIC.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY, WHICH WILL
ASSIST IN DECREASING THE RIP CURRENT RISK, WITH A MODERATE RISK
NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
TODAY'S FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES:
MIAMI (KMIA): 85
FORT LAUDERDALE (KFLL): 84
WEST PALM BEACH (KPBI): 86
75TH PERCENTILE HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES:
MIAMI (KMIA): 86
FORT LAUDERDALE (KFLL): 85
WEST PALM BEACH (KPBI): 87
TODAY'S RECORD MAXIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES:
MIAMI (KMIA): 86
FORT LAUDERDALE (KFLL): 87
WEST PALM BEACH (KPBI): 87
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 70 83 66 82 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 67 84 63 82 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 68 83 65 82 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 68 83 66 82 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 81 66 80 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 69 82 66 80 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 68 84 65 83 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 68 82 63 80 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 68 83 64 81 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 68 80 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...99
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