418
FXUS62 KMFL 021333
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
933 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2020
UPDATE
WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
UNCOMFORTABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. LIGHT,
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH SEABREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
OVERALL PATTERN, THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE SHOULD NOT PROGRESS TOO
FAR INLAND. WHILE SOUNDING ANALYSIS THIS MORNING REVEALS A BIT
DRIER AIR IN PLACE WITH PWATS OF 1.55 INCHES RUNNING BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE, A SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENSION OF A MIDLEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN FORCING FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. THEREFORE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR AND THEN REFOCUSING OVER THE EAST COAST METRO BY EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.
FORECAST-WISE, EVERYTHING LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO KEEP UP WITH TRENDS IN RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 727 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2020/
AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH BRIEF
BOUTS OF LOWER CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HELPS TO PUSH SHRA/TS THAT DEVELOP
OVER THE INTERIOR TOWARDS THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2020/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THROUGH FRIDAY):
WEAK WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE SEABREEZES ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS EACH AFTERNOON, THE ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE WILL LIKELY MAKE LESS PROGRESS INLAND WITH THE OVERALL
W/SW FLOW. AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR BEFORE
PUSHING ACROSS THE EAST COAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVE RAINFALL
WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S AND MAX HEAT INDICES GENERALLY IN
THE 102-108 RANGE. ALTHOUGH THIS FALLS SHORT OF THE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA (108+ FOR 2+ HOURS), SENSITIVE GROUPS AND THOSE WORKING
OUTDOORS COULD STILL EXPERIENCE HEAT ILLNESS, ESPECIALLY SINCE LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE METRO AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 80
OVERNIGHT. THIS PATTERN, ESPECIALLY OVER MANY CONSECUTIVE DAYS, CAN
INCREASE HEAT ILLNESS RISK AS THERE IS NO "COOLING OFF" DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY):
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A RATHER COMPLEX SYNOPTIC SCENARIO FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF
REGION, WHILE MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BASICALLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SE CONUS. MEANWHILE, THE CUSTOMARY
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FURTHER
EAST OF THE SUNSHINE STATE, ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE HIGH OVER THE GULF TO MAINTAIN SOFLO UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THROUGH ERLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, MODELS ALSO SHOW A MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS FLORIDA AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS INTENSIFIES. THIS
WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORM FORMATION OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
OVER SOFLO FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
PERSISTENT LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW
COLLISIONS TO BECOME THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LIFTING MECHANISMS.
THE GENERALLY LIGHT BACKGROUND FLOW WILL RESULT IN STORMS HAVING
LITTLE STEERING, AND KEEPING HEAVY RAIN FOR LONGER PERIODS OF TIME
OVER THE SAME AREA. ALSO, WITH THE LIGHT FLOW BECOMING CALM AT
TIMES, EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO HIT THE MID-UPPER 90S OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOFLO, ALONG WITH LOW-MID 90S ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS.
MARINE...
GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BEACH FORECAST...
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST AT ALL SOUTH FLORIDA BEACHES
INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WEST PALM BEACH 93 76 94 76 / 40 20 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 92 79 93 79 / 20 30 20 10
MIAMI 94 79 94 78 / 20 10 20 10
NAPLES 91 78 92 78 / 10 0 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...11/HVN
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