109
FXUS62 KMFL 250543
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
143 AM EDT THU APR 25 2024
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER...
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT THU APR 25 2024
MID-LVL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD RESULTING IN CONTINUED DYNAMIC SUBSIDENCE AND
REINFORCEMENT OF THE DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER SFL. AT THE SURFACE
INITIALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PREVAIL TODAY,
WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT FAVORING A SEA-BREEZE DRIVEN WIND REGIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE, RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S
NEAR THE EAST COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEST COAST/INTERIOR.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO CAN'T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT OVER THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE MAXIMUM SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE, BUT GIVEN
THE DRY MID-LVLS SUSPECT MOST UPDRAFTS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE CAP,
AND THEREFORE ANY CUMULUS BUILDUPS REMAIN SHALLOW. GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW
AND DRY AIRMASS, ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S... CERTAINLY WELCOME FOR LATE APRIL.
ON FRIDAY THE EARLIER WEAK ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY A STRONGER
HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD. THIS TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY FLOW AND THUS A WEAKENING OF THE GULF
BREEZE CIRCULATION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILAR OVER THE EAST COAST
(ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE), BUT SLIGHTLY INCREASE OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, BUT SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLE OVERALL. GIVEN
THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF MID-LVL RIDGING RAINFALL IS ONCE AGAIN NOT
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT THU APR 25 2024
MID-LVL RIDGING WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DISPLACING THE STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE (INITIALLY STRONG) HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST SUPPORTING BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING INTO
NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE, ALTHOUGH SOME SHALLOW COASTAL CONVERGENCE GENERATED SHOWERS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVER THE EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CHARACTERISTIC OF A STRONG EASTERLY REGIME WITH THE WARMEST
HIGHS (GENERALLY UPPER 80S) OVER THE INTERIOR/WEST COAST WITH COOLER
HIGHS (GENERALLY LOW TO MID 80S) OVER THE EAST COAST. THE REVERSE WILL
BE TRUE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH MILDER READINGS (LOW 70S) OVER THE EAST
COAST AND 60S OVER THE INTERIOR/WEST COAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT THU APR 25 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT, BCMG E/ENE AROUND 10
KT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT THU APR 25 2024
GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS OVER THE AREA. EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA BUILDS
SOUTHWARD.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT THU APR 25 2024
THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS OVER THE PALM BEACH COASTLINE
TODAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST COAST BEACHES.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL INCREASE TO HIGH OVER ALL THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT THU APR 25 2024
THE DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK OVER
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR AND SW FLORIDA AS GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO PREVAIL. MINIMUM RHS BELOW 40% CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THESE PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LOCALIZED VALUES APPROACHING 35% THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH FUELS WILL REMAIN DRY (THE SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL
FORECAST REMAINS IN THE ORANGE CATEGORY), WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 70 82 73 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 83 65 83 69 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 83 68 83 71 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 82 68 82 71 / 0 10 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 70 80 73 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 70 81 72 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 84 69 84 71 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 81 68 81 70 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 82 69 82 71 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 85 67 88 68 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CARR
LONG TERM....CARR
AVIATION...SRB
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