395
FXUS62 KMFL 281958
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
358 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 344 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
- SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE IN WESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COULD
LEAD TO REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
NOT A TON OF CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FORECAST.
ONE ITEM WHICH HAS EMERGED THROUGH THE DAY IS THE HIGHWAY 41 FIRE
IN WESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WHICH HAS A SMOKE PLUME VISIBLE ON
DOPPLER RADAR. SMOKE AND FOG WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED TO BOTH THE
GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE POTENTIAL
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE WITH THIS WILDFIRE IF THE SMOKE
IT PRODUCES BECOMES TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE ONCE THE INVERSION
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE DENSE
SMOKE/FOG ADVISORIES WERE TO BECOME NECESSARY.
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WARMING TREND WHICH COULD PEAK LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AIR TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MID
90S ON SATURDAY AND TRIPLE DIGIT APPARENT TEMPERATURE VALUES
SNEAKING BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FOR
AN INCREASING HEAT RISK TREND BY SATURDAY.
HAVE A GREAT AFTERNOON!
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
A RATHER STOUT MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MEXICO WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF TODAY AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, A FAST MOVING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA, AND
WHILE THIS MAY FLATTEN THE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION JUST
A BIT, IT WILL STILL HAVE FIRM CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SURFACE, THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY, AND THEN EVENTUALLY SETTLING
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION IN THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW TO REMAIN EAST
NORTHEASTERLY TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING AND BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE TAKING
PLACE FROM THE MID LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT AND THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH, MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
MOST OF TODAY AND HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD
BE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHERE JUST
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE, THAT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE BOTH TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS THEY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST, AND INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND, A RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND ENCOMPASS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WHILE
THIS MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH COMPLEX WILL REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE NORTH,
IT WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE OVERHEAD TO FLATTEN A BIT CREATING MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. HEADING INTO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, MID LEVEL RIDGING MAY TRY TO BUILD BACK OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE PASSES OFF TO THE SOUTH. AT
THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON THURSDAY AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN DRAPED ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES AS
WELL AS NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY
STALL OUT TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA HEADING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS WELL SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, HOWEVER, WILL CAUSE THE
SURFACE WIND FLOW TO SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH BOTH GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
REMAINING IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT STALLS AND FALLS APART
TO THE NORTH, MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION AND POOLING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE ALSO IS SHOWING SOME SIGNALS THAT SOME
MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR PUSHES BACK OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON THURSDAY MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY DUE TO
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS, HOWEVER, CHANCES STILL REMAIN
VERY LIMITED AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE PRETTY
DRY AND VERY WARM ACROSS THE REGION AS PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE WILL
BE OCCURRING COMBINED WITH THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS. SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS MAY EVEN HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO HIT THE MID 90S ON SATURDAY.
HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL ONCE AGAIN SHOW SIGNS OF CHANGE AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES ON
SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE MAY HELP TO CREATE A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF ON SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING IT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD THEN BE DRAGGED
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATER ON SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK ACROSS THE REGION. THE FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AS IT REMAINS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE EXACT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AS FAR AS WHERE
THE BROAD LOW MAY DEVELOP AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACH. THE LATEST FORECAST DOES TAKE A BLEND OF THE
FORECAST MODELS AND INCREASES THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS.
EASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS WILL PERSIST AT ALL EAST COAST
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. AT
KAPF, WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW
MORNING. SMOKE FROM THE HWY 41 FIRE OVER THE EVERGLADES MAY
APPROACH THE VICINITY OF KTMB, BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY LOW
CONFIDENCE ON ANY VISIBILITY IMPACTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY BEFORE
BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, WHERE WINDS MAY BECOME MORE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY EACH AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. A
LINGERING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE SEAS TO
REMAIN AT 3 TO 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING AND RANGING
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS AS WELL AS A LINGERING NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PALM
BEACHES TODAY AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 71 86 71 89 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 68 88 68 90 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 71 88 71 90 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 71 86 70 88 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 84 71 87 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 71 84 71 87 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 72 89 73 91 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 70 86 70 89 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 71 85 71 87 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 70 87 70 86 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...DPB
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