361
FXUS62 KMFL 061735
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1235 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SW FLORIDA AND THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TONIGHT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DENSE
MARINE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THIS WEEK.
- A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. A
WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL INTERMITTENT ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THE
15-17Z CAMS (MESOSCALE MODELS) DEPICT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF SEA- BREEZE CONVERGE INLAND. THE NBM (NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS) HAD POPS (PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION) CLOSER TO ZERO,
SO 15-20% PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN WERE ADDED IN.
THE LATEST 12Z HREF PROBABILITIES ALSO FALL IN LINE WITH THE
NARRATIVE DISCUSSED BELOW. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS (RAP, RRFS,
HRRR, ETC) INDICATE THAT FOG MAY OCCUR A BIT EARLIER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS AND SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA UNDERNEATH A STOUT LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. THUS, ADJUSTED THE
ONSET OF FOG ACCORDINGLY. LAND-BASED (AND MARINE) DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE
MID-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PRESENCE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
REMAINS STRONG AND DOES NOT LOOK TO BREAK DOWN ANY TIME SOON. THUS,
EXPECT ONGOING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW
80S.
WITH THE CALM WEATHER PATTERN AND WEAK FLOW ONGOING, THE ONE THING
TO MONITOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS IS FOR AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING. THIS REMAINS PRIMARILY A CONCERN FOR INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND WITH CLEARING
SKIES, RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVES A HIGH CHANCE FOR AIR TEMPERATURES
TO COOL TO THE DEW POINTS AND LEAD TO FOG FORMATION. LATEST HREF
GUIDANCE GIVES A 50-70% CHANCE FOR INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
PLUS EVEN AREAS CLOSER TO THE METRO AREAS OF PALM BEACH TO SEE FOG
DEVELOPMENT THAT RESULTS IN VISIBILITIES FALLING TO A HALF MILE OR
LESS THIS MORNING. MOST LIKELY TIME TO SEE FOG WILL BE BETWEEN 3-9
AM AGAIN BOTH THIS MORNING AND TOMORROW MORNING. DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS CONDITIONS DEVELOP, WHICH WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING PATTERN CONTINUES
TO AMPLIFY AND PREVENT TROUGHS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM PUSHING
SOUTHWARDS AND INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA REGION. AS A RESULT, QUIET
WEATHER WILL BE ONGOING FOR A WHILE. JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY STICK AROUND TO PROVIDE LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG THE WEAK SEA BREEZES EACH DAY, BUT OVERALL THE CHANCES EVEN
FOR THESE BRIEF WEAK SHOWERS ARE VERY LOW. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS
TRYING TO HINT AT A FRONTAL APPROACH LATE THIS WEEKEND, BUT WITH
THIS BEING NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY CONTINUE TO REBOUND SLOWLY WITH
TEMPERATURES SETTLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE MIDDLE TO END
OF THIS WEEK AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SOME SPOTS IN THE
INTERIOR MAY REACH THE UPPER 80S LATE THIS WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS
DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
FOR INTERIOR AND SW FLORIDA EACH NIGHT, WITH EAST COAST METRO AREAS
EXPECTED TO SEE LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET WITH ONSHORE WIND FLOW
AT BOTH EAST COAST TERMINALS AND KAPF. FG/BR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS AND SW FLORIDA AROUND 05-09Z, EXPANDING
IN COVERAGE THROUGH DAYBREAK. WHILE EAST COAST TERMINALS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR AND OUTSIDE OF FOG, KAPF MAY SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
IFR/LIFR VIS CONDITIONS BETWEEN 05Z-15Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1214 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MID-
WEEK AND LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESIDES
OVER THE AREA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED MOSTLY AT 2 FEET OR LESS ACROSS ALL
LOCAL WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 65 80 67 81 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 59 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 63 82 65 82 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 62 80 64 82 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 63 79 66 79 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 64 80 67 80 / 0 0 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 62 81 64 81 / 0 0 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 62 81 65 81 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 63 81 65 82 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 60 79 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...HADI
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