579
FXUS62 KMFL 201106
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
706 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 703 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS: ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY, GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE EAST
COAST BEACHES.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE REND OF
REST OF THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
ROUNDS OF STREAMING SHOWERS CAN STILL BE OBSERVED ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MAIN CELL MOTION FROM NNE TO SSW, MAINLY
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LATEST ENSEMBLE AND
GLOBAL SOLUTIONS, INCLUDING THE OFFICIAL NBM, KEEP EMBEDDED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF SOFLO THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.
MODELS ALSO DEPICT A BROAD DEEP H1025MB CENTERED AROUND THE
CAROLINAS, DOMINATING THE SE CONUS AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOFLO WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS HIGH TODAY, WITH PREVAILING NNE WINDS IN PLACE. PERIODS OF
GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH ARE AGAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
MEANWHILE, A SFC RIDGE OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD AND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EFFECTIVELY DROP PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS SOFLO WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES BY
SATURDAY. WITH A DRYING TREND AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE DESCENDING UPON
THE REGION, POPS WILL DROP INTO SINGLE DIGITS BY THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH NO RELIEF TO THE ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN SIGHT.
DECREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD WILL ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS, WHILE THE GULF COAST MAY REACH
THE LOW 80S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT TIMES. EFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW CLOUD COVER
WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
80S ON SUNDAY, A TREND THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
LONG TERM.
LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING A LOW/TROUGH
COMPLEX OVER THE E CONUS PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
INTO FLORIDA BY LATE TUESDAY. BUT SO FAR SOLUTIONS SHOW THE FRONT
STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA, WITH MOST OF
ITS ENHANCED MOISTURE LIKELY LINGERING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. BEST
POPS REMAIN LOW WITH 15- 25 PERCENT RANGE IN LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS, INCLUDING NBM, FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
NW WINDS BECOME NE 10-15KTS AFTER 14-15Z WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS. OCCASIONAL COASTAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
ROBUST NNE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL KEEP HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. HAZARDOUS WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE GULF WATERS, REMAINING
CAUTIONARY THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC 5-8 FT,
AND 3-6 FT IN THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
AN ELEVATED N/NE SWELL WILL KEEP A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 76 62 78 61 / 20 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 78 56 81 55 / 10 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 77 60 80 60 / 20 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 77 60 80 60 / 20 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 63 77 61 / 30 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 75 63 77 61 / 30 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 78 61 80 60 / 20 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 75 61 78 59 / 20 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 75 62 77 60 / 30 0 0 0
NAPLES 81 58 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
657-676.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CMF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page