124
FXUS62 KMFL 280544
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1244 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1236 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
- A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY, LEADING TO
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE
AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG
WIND.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRE ACTIVITY MAY STILL CREATE DANGEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF I-75, TAMIAMI TRAIL,
AND SR-29 TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
SOUTH FLORIDA SITS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND
LOCAL GULF WATERS. RESIDUAL SMOKE FROM THE NATIONAL & REGAL FIRES
IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA MAY ACT TO CREATE EXCEPTIONALLY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THESE AREAS, RESULTING IN VISIBILITIES NEARING ZERO AT
TIMES AND DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO
EXERCISE EXTRA CAUTION IF TRAVELING ALONG INLAND ROUTES THROUGH
9AM THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND SR-29 IN
COLLIER/HENDRY COUNTIES.
THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS VERY SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WHILE LIKELY REMAINING JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TRANSVERSES THE SE CONUS.
THIS SHOULD KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE ENVELOPE OF DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE. THE CONTINUED INCREASE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE COULD HELP FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TO SEE
A FEW SHOWERS TODAY, THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND A NON-ZERO
CHANCE OF A QUICK SPIN-UP TORNADO IN THIS TYPE OF SETUP.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS AND EVENTUALLY STALLS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
SURFACE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY VEER NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE BOUNDARY FIZZLES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES FRONTOLYTIC IN THE VICINITY OF OUR
REGION ON MONDAY, THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET-
STREAM WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION, A QUIET PERIOD ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE IS USHERED INTO THE REGION AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF AND GRADUALLY SLIDES EASTWARDS
TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BY THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS, MAINLY ALONG THE EAST COAST WHERE WINDS COULD
GUST 20-25 MPH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THE 1.3 TO 1.6 RANGE WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK-
WEEK PERHAPS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COASTLINE AND OVER
LOCAL WATERS. PREVAILING CONDITIONS BY FAR WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE BRIEF.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ALONG THE EAST COAST TO MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE GULF COAST,
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
LIKELY CHALLENGING PERIOD AHEAD AS FOG DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
PROBABLE ACROSS MOST SOUTH FLORIDA SITES. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY AROUND 15Z. FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRIMARILY SW FLOW UNTIL AROUND 18-19Z
WHEN THE SEA BREEZE VEERS FLOW TO A MORE SE DIRECTION ACROSS THE
EASTERN SITES. CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAXIMIZED IN PALM
BEACH AND BROWARD SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
OUTSIDE OF LOCALLY ELEVATED SEAS AND WINDS IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BENIGN ACROSS ALL
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY OCCUR THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN LOWER VISIBILITIES THAN NORMAL. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT NEXT WEEK WILL ACT TO ESTABLISH A BREEZY TO AT
TIMES GUSTY EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL USHER IN A DURATION OF LIKELY
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN A LOW
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA BEACHES. WITH WINDS
FORECAST TO ENHANCE OUT OF AN EASTERLY ONSHORE DIRECTION EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO RETURN ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 84 67 81 68 / 30 30 40 30
WEST KENDALL 86 62 83 63 / 20 20 30 20
OPA-LOCKA 85 66 82 67 / 30 30 40 30
HOMESTEAD 84 65 82 67 / 20 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 67 79 68 / 40 40 40 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 83 67 79 68 / 40 40 40 30
PEMBROKE PINES 86 66 83 67 / 40 30 40 30
WEST PALM BEACH 83 65 78 66 / 50 50 30 20
BOCA RATON 83 65 79 67 / 50 50 30 30
NAPLES 79 64 81 63 / 20 20 20 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
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