844
FXUS62 KMFL 291757
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
157 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 155 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
- SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE IN WESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COULD
LEAD TO REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING WELL
WEST OF THE METRO AREA.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
A RATHER STRONG AND ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTH
TEXAS AND MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND THURSDAY. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH, A DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH COMPLEX WILL DIVE DOWN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE ENCOMPASSING
THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES HEADING INTO THURSDAY. WHILE
THIS MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH COMPLEX WILL STAY WELL OFF TO THE NORTH,
IT WILL FLATTEN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD, CREATING MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER JUST OFFSHORE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION BEFORE GETTING PUSHED FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH
TODAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ESSENTIALLY BLOCKING THE
SOUTHEASTWARD MOMENTUM OF THE BOUNDARY, THE FRONT WILL NOT GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, AND MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY HEADING INTO
THURSDAY. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO
SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL
GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE NORTHERN CARRIBEAN SEA
HEADING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND IT WILL EVENTUALLY END UP
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES. AS THE CENTER OF
THIS RIDGE PASSES OFF TO THE SOUTH, MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY RISE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FURTHER
UPSTREAM, A RATHER POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEFORE RAPIDLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, WHAT
IS LEFT OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA GETS LIFTED TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING BROAD
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PUSH INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY.
AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PASSING OFF TO THE SOUTH COMBINED
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP
DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING THE VERY WARM
AIR MASS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN OVER THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
SATURDAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SKYROCKET ON SATURDAY AND THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND INTO THE
MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE EVEN
HIGHER, AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS WELL AS THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY BEFORE POTENTIALLY
STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY, AND THEN THOSE
ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY. WHAT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN IS THE THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE
DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOW CLOSE THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
GETS TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF GUIDANCE SUITE HAS IT PASSING OFF
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WHILE THE GFS SUITE BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE A BIT
CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE POSITIONING OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT
THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY IMPACT THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HOWEVER, THEY COULD RETURN TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DOWN THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE TAF.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BY
MID-AFTERNOON TOMORROW. CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS MAY SPREAD DOWN THE
WEST COAST LATE TONIGHT, BUT WHETHER THEY REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS
APF IS STILL UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY ADVERTISE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS NEAR DAWN, BUT THIS COULD TREND MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST
OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS, WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. HEADING TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK, WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SEAS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS REMAIN AT 2 FEET
OR LESS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
DUE TO A LINGERING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PALM BEACHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REST
OF THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 72 89 71 89 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 68 90 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 72 90 71 90 / 10 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 70 88 70 88 / 10 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 87 70 87 / 10 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 72 88 71 88 / 10 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 73 92 72 92 / 10 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 70 89 70 89 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 72 88 71 88 / 10 0 0 0
NAPLES 71 85 70 87 / 10 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
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