606
FXUS62 KMFL 171139
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
739 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 738 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
- BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEK AS NORTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTS A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND 70S, AND LOWS DOWN INTO THE 50S.
- HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL
WATERS TODAY AS WINDS AND SEAS BUILD BEHIND A FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PALM BEACH
AND COLLIER COUNTY TODAY. THIS RISK COULD EXTEND ALONG THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
THE MUCH-DISCUSSED COLD FRONT FINALLY MADE IT SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS PLACING
IT RIGHT OVER COLLIER AND BROWARD COUNTIES AS OF 2AM. AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN IS CURRENTLY EXPANDING SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN ENHANCED. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE FRONT EXITING OUR REGION SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, THUS
PUSHING MUCH OF THIS RAIN ACTIVITY OUT OF THE AREA, THEN CONTINUING
SOUTHWARD UNTIL EVENTUALLY BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. NEVERTHELESS, THE FRONT'S
PRESENCE IN THE NEAR VICINITY WILL HELP MAINTAIN A GENERALLY
MOIST AND LIGHTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA, WHICH WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. TO THAT EFFECT, KEPT POPS
BETWEEN 30-40% FOR TODAY, AND UP TO 50% ON WEDNESDAY; ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE SPARSE AND TRANSIENT IN NATURE.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE NORTH TODAY ONCE THE FRONT HAS PASSED,
USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT,
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE LOW 70S. UPPER-
LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION, HELPING MAINTAIN
THOSE TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND THE
GULF WATERS. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN THOSE WELL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP
PROMOTE CONTINUED BELOW-AVERAGE COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
IN FACT, HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND LOW 60S ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE DECAYING FRONT WILL ALSO
DIMINISH DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME; AS A RESULT, THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WILL FINALLY DRY OUT AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DROP NEAR ZERO.
GRADUAL WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE AXIS OF THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 80S
EACH DAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS WELL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
SUB-MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT EAST COAST TERMINALS AS
A LOW CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE. L/V WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AND BECOME BREEZY BY LATE MORNING. L/V WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
A FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL SET UP BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY,
RESULTING IN BUILDING SEAS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL BUILD TO 7 FEET BY WEDNESDAY, WHILE SEAS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS COULD RANGE FROM 7-10 FEET FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK, AND ITS PRESENCE WILL HELP POOL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EACH AFTERNOON.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
HIGH RISK OF RIP CONTINUES FOR PALM BEACH AND COLLIER COUNTY
BEACHES TODAY. THIS RISK COULD EXTEND ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS SWELL INTENSIFIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 71 58 72 64 / 40 40 50 40
WEST KENDALL 73 55 74 59 / 40 40 50 40
OPA-LOCKA 72 58 74 62 / 40 40 40 30
HOMESTEAD 74 59 75 64 / 40 40 60 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 58 71 64 / 40 40 40 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 68 58 71 64 / 40 40 40 30
PEMBROKE PINES 72 58 74 63 / 40 40 40 30
WEST PALM BEACH 66 57 70 63 / 30 20 30 20
BOCA RATON 68 58 71 63 / 40 30 40 30
NAPLES 68 52 72 57 / 10 10 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR FLZ172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...HADI
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