351
FXUS62 KMFL 101126
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
726 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 711 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD,
PALM BEACH, AND COLLIER COUNTIES.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON,
FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
- PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT
RISK ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TO START THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
DEEP-LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO HOLD INFLUENCE OVER FLORIDA WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF. LIGHT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW OVER
THE AREA CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE GULF SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP AND ADVANCE INLAND EACH DAY ALLOWING FOR A CONVECTIVE
FOCUS ZONE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND INLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA. DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHICH WILL HELP LOWER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S EACH DAY UNDER
MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 100S TO THE LOWER 110S, DEPENDING ON THE AREA.
ACCORDINGLY, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM MID-MORNING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING FOR MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD, PALM BEACH, AND COLLIER
COUNTIES. EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC HEATRISK DEPICTS A SUBSTANTIAL
50+ PERCENT SWATH OF THE DADE/BROWARD/PALM BEACH WESTERN SUBURBS AND
CENTRAL URBAN HEAT ISLAND AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MAJOR
HEATRISK TODAY. PALM BEACH COUNTY HAS SOME VALUES EXCEEDING 90
PERCENT IN SOME CASES ALONG THE STATE ROAD 7/US 441 CORRIDOR.
COLLIER COUNTY, PARTICULARLY AROUND MARCO ISLAND, HAS SIMILAR WITH
70+ PERCENT CHANCES OF MAJOR HEATRISK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
A DRIER SAHARAN AIR LAYER SETTLES IN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES A BIT FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW TO PERSIST WHILE THE LOWER RELATIVE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE LOWER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOCUSED INLAND IN THE
AFTERNOONS. THE DRY AIR WILL LINGER UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN
THE NEXT BURST OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO ARRIVE FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND GREATER ANTILLES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER
COULD EMERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO CLOSE OUT THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.
GIVEN THE RELATIVE DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN A WARMING TREND WITH LOWER TO MID 90S BECOMING THE STORY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DAY-
TO-DAY, PARTICULARLY OVER THE URBANIZED AREAS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
GENERALLY VFR WITH L/V FLOW THROUGH AROUND 15Z, THEN SE WINDS
AROUND 10KT PREVAIL. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE APF WHERE A WESTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER 16Z DUE TO THE GULF BREEZE. BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR?IFR CIGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE OVER APF THIS AFTERNOON. VFR AND
L/V FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WHICH MAY RESULT
IN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION, SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
PERSISTENT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW THE RIP
CURRENT RISK TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WEEK ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 92 81 92 80 / 10 0 10 0
WEST KENDALL 92 80 93 77 / 10 0 10 0
OPA-LOCKA 93 80 93 79 / 10 0 10 0
HOMESTEAD 92 81 92 80 / 10 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 81 91 80 / 10 0 10 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 91 81 91 81 / 10 0 10 0
PEMBROKE PINES 92 81 92 79 / 10 0 10 0
WEST PALM BEACH 93 80 93 78 / 10 0 10 0
BOCA RATON 91 80 91 79 / 10 0 10 0
NAPLES 93 77 93 79 / 40 20 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ067>074-168-172>174.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...17
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