720
FXUS62 KMFL 080820
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
320 AM EST THU DEC 8 2022
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST THU DEC 8 2022
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF STRONG RIDGING IN
THE 500MB LAYER DRAPED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, WHICH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR REGION.
AT THE SURFACE, OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH LIGHT
EAST-NORTH EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW ALOFT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTH/WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ACROSS INLAND SW FLORIDA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONCE VERTICAL MIXING OCCURS AFTER SUNRISE,
THE FOG SHOULD ABATE ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER QUIET AND
TRANQUIL DAY IS IN STORE FOR OUR REGION. WAKE UP TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE, UPPER 60S
ALONG THE GULF COAST, AND THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED SYNOPTIC RIDGING AND
SURFACE RIDGING, TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PLEASANT IN NATURE WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE LOW 80S. THERE IS VERY
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING VIA THE ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY,
BUT CHANCES ARE STILL SO LOW THAT NOT EVEN MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY WILL BRING MUCH OF THE SAME AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL
NOW BE OVERHEAD OF SOUTH FLORIDA, WIND SPEEDS WILL LESSEN TO BECOME
LIGHT IN NATURE. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S LAKE
REGION TO MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE AND CLOSE TO 70 ALONG EAST
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S AREA-WIDE
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST THU DEC 8 2022
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONTINUED SYNOPTIC RIDGING AND A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
HOWEVER CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON, AS THE PERSISTENT RIDGING
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE PAST WEEK FINALLY BEGINS TO GIVE WAY BY
LATE THIS WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN QUIET IN NATURE. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PROPAGATING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND AND REACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS
MODERATING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
BOUNDARY MAY UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK JUST TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. AT THIS POINT, THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
DO NOT INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF MUCH MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY
ALTHOUGH THE EXTRA LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY COULD ACT TO
PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST AROUND
THE RIDGE BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL REMAIN SO LOW THAT IT IS NOT EVEN
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S DURING THE DAYTIME. OVERNIGHT, LOWS ARE
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 50S AROUND THE LAKE REGION TO THE LOW TO
MID 60S ELSEWHERE WITH THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70. THESE LOWS BEGIN TO INCREASE A TAD BY MID WEEK. PROBABILITIES
DERIVED FROM MODEL ENSEMBLES AND THEIR TRENDS RENDER A FAIRLY
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO. BASICALLY, A
PERSISTENT PLEASANT FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST THU DEC 8 2022
AVIATION VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
ENE 5-10 KTS DURING THE PEAK OF THE DAY TODAY AND BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST THU DEC 8 2022
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LESSEN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO OUR WEST. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS (3-5
EXTREME NORTHERN WATERS OFFSHORE PALM BEACH AT TIMES DUE TO GROUND
SWELL), AND 1 TO 2 FEET OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, WINDS WILL START TURNING MORE NELY
AGAIN AND INCREASE A BIT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD AGAIN TO OUR NORTH BEHIND A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NE OF THE ISLANDS IS ALREADY GENERATING ENERGY THAT IS REACHING
PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN PALM BEACH WATERS AS A GROUND SWELL.
THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE NNE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH A LARGE FETCH TO ITS WEST GENERALLY POINT IN OUR
DIRECTION. THE RESULT IS A 10-12 SECONDS SWELL BEGINNING THE SPREAD
SOUTH ALONG OUR EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED BUT ALONG
THE EAST COAST THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SEAS ALONG THE PALM
BEACH WATERS WHERE THEY WILL BE PEAKING IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE
DESPITE WINDS NOT BEING THAT STRONG. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
SOME ROUGH SURF PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PALM BEACH WATERS EARLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST THU DEC 8 2022
DUE TO THE SWELL IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE PALM BEACH COAST (SEE
MARINE SECTION ABOVE), A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE PALM BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONCERNS FOR ROUGH SURF ALONG THE PALM BEACHES WILL ALSO
INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL
REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE FOR BROWARD AND MIAMI THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
IT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS SOME OF THAT SWELL SPREADS FARTHER SOUTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 83 70 83 68 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 83 65 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 82 67 82 66 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 80 67 82 66 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 69 82 68 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 69 81 67 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 82 67 82 65 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 81 68 82 66 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 82 68 82 66 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 83 66 82 63 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...PS
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