166
FXUS62 KMFL 292004 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
404 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 403 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
DANGEROUS, ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM WITH LARGE WAVES OF
10 TO 14 FEET.
- WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 35 MPH
NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING OVER METRO SE FLORIDA TODAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY
UNTIL 8 PM, AS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS GUSTING TO ABOUT
35-38 MPH OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY. THERE HAS
BEEN A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE STRONGEST WINDS AS THE FRONT
HAS MOVED SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS SHIFTED THE TIGHTEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH IT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY:
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NORTHERN
BROWARD COUNTY TO THE NAPLES AREA. THE THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED QUITE A BIT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT, BUT
REMAINS SOMWHAT PERCEPTIBLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA AS WELL AS
FROM THE SURFACE THETA-E PROFILE. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SO FAR TODAY HAS FALLEN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER BROWARD,
PALM BEACH, GLADES, AND NORTHERN HENDRY COUNTIES WHERE AVERAGE
AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST 6-9 HOURS ARE IN THE 0.5 INCH RANGE, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO LOSE DEFINITION.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION, DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MIAMI-DADE AND COLLIER COUNTIES MAY ACT TO TEMPORARILY REINFORCE
THE BOUNDARY AND LEAD TO CONCENTRATED SHOWER FORMATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN QUITE LIMITED SO
FAR TODAY AS INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR. THEREFORE, CAPPED THUNDER CHANCES AT 30%
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY STILL BE CONSERVATIVELY HIGH.
AVERAGE QPF VALUES FOR THE REST OF TODAY ARE IN THE 0.25 TO
0.5-INCH RANGE, WITH SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING LOCALIZED
HIGH-END VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN FLOODING.
PEAK WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN NEAR 35 MPH
IN METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY, AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST 4 PM, WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE REMNANT
OF THE FRONT REMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPS A MODERATE TO STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. MOISTURE VALUES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE, ALTHOUGH SHOWERS MAY CONCENTRATE
A BIT FARTHER SOUTH OVER MIAMI-DADE AND COLLIER COUNTIES COMPARED TO
TODAY. AVERAGE QPF THROUGH MONDAY EVENING REMAINS AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5
INCHES, WITH REASONABLE HIGH-END VALUES AROUND AN INCH. EAST WINDS
STAY GUSTY ON MONDAY BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SEASONAL NORMS, WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S, AND HIGHS ON MONDAY RANGING FROM
NEAR 80 EAST COAST TO THE MID 80S SW FLORIDA.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY:
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPS A STEADY E/SE
WIND FLOW. A WEAK 500 MB HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBTROPICAL JET OF 80-90 KNOTS NOSING EASTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA MAY PROVIDE SOME SLIGHT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TO KEEP A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40% RANGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO NEXT WEEKEND, KEEPING A STEADY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND
AND INTERVALS OF DRY AND MOIST AIR MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WILL
KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE 20-30% RANGE, BUT THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS
OF HIGHER POPS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY COINCIDING WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGES AND HINTS OF FORCING/DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM THE
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF AMERICA.
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM EARLY IN THE WEEK, WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND HIGHS LOWER 80S TO UPPER 80S
(LARGEST RANGE OF TEMPERATURES OVER INLAND SW FLORIDA AND THE
SMALLEST OVER COASTAL SE FLORIDA).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MIA-FLL-
PBI CORRIDOR THROUGH AROUND 00Z, WITH ADDITIONAL SHRA AND LOWER
CONDITIONS IMPACTING MAINLY MIA-FLL AFTER 06Z. ANY IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE BRIEF AND PRIMARILY IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. TSRA WILL
BE LIMITED, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES MIA-FLL AREAS. KAPF HAS HIGHER
CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 20Z-00Z. WIND WILL BE 070-090
DEGREES AT 13-17 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AS STRONG EAST WINDS AND A LARGE NORTH SWELL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE SEAS OF 10-15 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE NORTH SWELL
DECREASES, BUT STILL EXPECT SEAS UP TO 8 FT WELL INTO MONDAY. SEAS
THEN LOOK TO SETTLE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
OVER THE GULF WATERS, SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY 2-4 FT WITH A
MODERATE E-SE BREEZE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
THE HIGH RISK OF STRONG AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE
MAINTAINED AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER SURF
BUILDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE BROWARD COUNTY COAST LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 71 80 71 80 / 40 50 20 30
WEST KENDALL 67 82 67 83 / 30 50 10 20
OPA-LOCKA 70 81 70 82 / 40 50 20 30
HOMESTEAD 71 81 71 81 / 30 50 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 78 70 78 / 50 50 20 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 71 78 71 79 / 60 50 20 30
PEMBROKE PINES 71 82 71 83 / 50 50 20 30
WEST PALM BEACH 70 78 69 79 / 50 50 20 30
BOCA RATON 70 78 70 79 / 60 60 20 30
NAPLES 68 84 68 85 / 10 50 10 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ168.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...MOLLEDA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page