295
FXUS62 KMFL 250608
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
108 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 105 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
- ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND AGAIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL EAST COAST
BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. SPECIFICS WILL BECOME CLEARER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
OVERALL IT'S LOOKING GOOD FOR SANTA'S VISIT ACROSS SOUTH FL
TONIGHT. HE MAY BE DODGING SOME OCCASIONAL COASTAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT, BUT NOTHING THAT WILL PREVENT PRESENTS FROM BEING
DELIVERED. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE FORECAST AROUND
THE LAKE REGION EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
MESOANALYSIS AND UPPER AIR SOUNDING DATA (ACARS, GOES-EAST, ROAB)
CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE
VERTICAL COLUMN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION COURTESY OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING THAT WE WILL
DISCUSS BELOW, SURFACE WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO WANE IN INTENSITY.
THE DECOUPLING OF SURFACE WINDS INLAND DUE TO NOCTURNAL
STRATIFICATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RESULTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AS LIGHT NORTHERLY
DRAINAGE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AT THIS HOUR. HOWEVER, ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST (EX: BARRIER ISLANDS) OF SOUTH FLORIDA,
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE STILL ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE LOW 70S. ALWAYS AN INTERESTING
MESOSCALE PHENOMENA TO OBSERVE ON THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS TIME OF YEAR WHEN THERE CAN BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT OVER A
RELATIVELY SMALL DISTANCE.
THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT SOUTHWARD
TODAY, ELONGATING AND GRADUALLY WANING IN INTENSITY WHILE BEING
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY
TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
REMAIN MAINLY DRY, THIS PATTERN ONCE AGAIN PRESENTS SOME LOW-END (10-
20%) POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT (MAINLY WITHIN THE BOTTOM 1KM TO
2KM OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER) ROTATING INTO THE REGION. SIMILAR TO THE
LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS, THE NBM (NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS) GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TOO LOW WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. HAVE BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES JUST A TAD TO THE 10-20%
RANGE FOR TODAY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST METRO OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX TODAY
WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS OVERLAND DURING THE DAY, THERE WILL STILL BE
A SUBTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND TEMPS IN
THE LOW 80S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
THE TANDEM OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND WANING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN WITH US ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHT
OUT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT (COURTESY OF ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW) BEFORE VEERING ONSHORE ALONG BOTH COASTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO GIVE THE REGION A COOL START TO CHRISTMAS DAY
WITH FORECAST WAKE-UP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE, UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND
INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. PATCHES OF DENSE FOG MAY ALSO
MATERIALIZE NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY AS WINDS DECOUPLE AND A NOCTURNAL
INVERSION DEVELOPS.DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS THE AXIS OF BOTH SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY
AIR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON CHRISTMAS DAY
WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S AREA-
WIDE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
THE STATUS QUO, RINSE AND REPEAT PATTERN OF DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE'S INFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE (SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL) WILL ADVECT DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DURING MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH WINDS VEERING ONSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG BOTH COASTS. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN
PREVALENT IN THE VERTICAL COLUMN, BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ON ANY MESOSCALE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. WITH
LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS, AND RESIDUAL SURFACE
MOISTURE; THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS
INLAND AREAS EACH NIGHT. WHILE SPATIAL EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF
OVERNIGHT FOG MAY VARY FROM DAY TO DAY, IT COULD BE IMPACTFUL FOR
ANY POST-HOLIDAY TRAVEL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS (UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S)
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NAPLES METRO,
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS OUR REGION (AS WELL AS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES) EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
ERODE AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS WE DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT, AN ATTENDANT SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE SIGNAL (LOW PRESSURE)
OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH, IS DEPICTED ON THE MODELS SWEEPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND PASSING OVER OUR AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT COLDER TEMPERATURES (POTENTIALLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR SEASONAL NORMS) COULD MATERIALIZE BEHIND THAT
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE. NOW FOR A BRIEF WORD OF
CAUTION (OR WISDOM PERHAPS), IT IS BEST TO NOT GET ANCHORED ON
SPECIFIC DETERMINISTIC TEMPERATURE VALUES IN THE MID TO LONG RANGE
PERIOD. DEVIATIONS ON UPSTREAM WEATHER FEATURES (LOW PRESSURE
PLACEMENT, TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTH) MAY
CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANGES IN FORECAST GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE LATEST RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT WAS
DEPICTED WITH THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE LAST
NIGHT. HOWEVER THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR
MODEL GUIDANCE TO TREND IN EITHER DIRECTION, SO BE SURE TO CHECK
BACK IN ON THE FORECAST LATER THIS WEEK OR DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH LATE
MORNING. SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTLINES NEAR NOON.
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS WILL DRIFT ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM 06-16Z,
BUT IMPACTS TO TERMINALS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
WELL INLAND OF TAF SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH CONTINUED SCEC (SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION)
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS WILL VEER NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY LATE TODAY, REMAINING
GENTLE TO MODERATE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER WITH
FORECAST HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FEET IN THE GULF AND 3-4 FEET IN THE
ATLANTIC. A FEW ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST AT ALL EAST COAST BEACHES
TODAY AS A PERSISTENT ONSHORE BREEZE CONTINUES. THE THREAT OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT, REMAINING IN THE MODERATE RISK
CATEGORY AT PALM BEACH BEACHES ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 64 80 63 / 10 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 81 58 81 58 / 10 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 81 63 81 62 / 10 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 80 62 80 61 / 10 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 63 79 63 / 10 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 63 79 62 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 81 62 81 61 / 10 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 80 61 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 81 63 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 81 60 79 59 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...ATV
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