619
FXUS62 KMFL 171718
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
118 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 106 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN LOWER VISIBILITIES FOR EARLY
COMMUTERS.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL EAST
COAST BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
MODEL GUIDANCE AND LATEST SFC ANALYSES SHOW A RIDGE/DEEP HIGH
PRESSURE STILL DOMINATING THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE LARGE STORM SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE C CONUS IS NOW PUSHING THE
RIDGE FURTHER INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORCE IT AWAY
FROM SOFLO. BUT IN THE MEANTIME, THE FL PENINSULA SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY
DRIFTING CLOSER TO SOFLO. THEREFORE, EXPECT THE GENERALLY WARM AND
RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER REGIME TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
LATEST 00Z MFL SOUNDING DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE INTRUSION, WHICH NBM AND ENSEMBLES DID NOT DESCRIBE IN
EARLIER RUNS. ALTHOUGH VERY MODEST, THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
BEING ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME AREAS OF PASSING SHOWERS, WHICH HAS
BEEN MAINLY AFFECTING PALM BEACH COUNTY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. POP/WX GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT
THIS TREND, CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCES/CHANCES OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOFLO THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SIMILAR ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR SATURDAY IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA, PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER RELAX, RESULTING IN SHORTER OR NO
PERIODS OF BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS AT ALL. BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE DURING THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 80S FOR MUCH OF SOFLO, WITH
POSSIBLE UPPER 80S OR EVEN LOW 90S OVER THE WEST COAST. NIGHTTIME
LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND, AND UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S NEAR THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT
A GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL US, WHICH COULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALOFT, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND, ERODING THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF
AND WEAKENING THE SURFACE HIGH. THIS GRADUAL PROCESS WILL ALLOW FOR
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH MODELED
PWATS SURGING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
(1.1-1.3 INCHES). THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS IT DOES, IT WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS FRONT DROPPING ALONG THE PENINSULA EARLY IN THE WEEK (BETWEEN
MONDAY-TUESDAY) AND CLEARING THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY
MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MODEL MEAN SOLUTION IS A REASONABLE
FORECAST OPTION, AND IT SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND BACK
HALF OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ON THE BACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY; THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO DEPICTED IN THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS. THIS SHORTWAVE WOULD PUSH A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GULF TOWARDS
SOUTH FLORIDA, RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGHER
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WED-THUR. HOWEVER, IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE
GEFS IS THE ONLY MODEL SYSTEM THAT PRESENTS THIS SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME; NEITHER THE EPS (THE ENSEMBLE ECMWF, WHICH DOMINATES THE MODEL
MEAN), AND THE GEPS (THE ENSEMBLE CANADIAN) SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND AS SUCH SUPPORT A MUCH DRIER
SOLUTION WED-THUR. FURTHERMORE, THOSE GEFS MEMBERS PRESENTING THIS
SOLUTION ACCOUNT FOR A MINORITY OF THE TOTAL ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE, WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MEMBERS IN CLEAR CONSENSUS
FOR A DRIER SOLUTION. WE'LL HAVE TO CONTINUE MONITORING THIS
FORECAST, BUT FOR NOW WE KEPT POPS IN THE 15-20% RANGE.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT MIGHT BE TEMPERED A BIT BY
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL CAP OUT
IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND MID 80S ALONG THE EAST
COAST. CONDITIONS COULD COOL BACK DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGHS NEXT
WEEK IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. LOWS EACH NIGHT COULD DIP INTO
THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND DOWN TO THE 60S ALONG THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS
AT BPI AND FXE UNDER PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 22-23Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MODERATE FROM THE ENE AT ALL ATLANTIC
TERMINALS, AND L/V TONIGHT AT APF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
A MODERATE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. LIGHTER WINDS WILL
SET UP OVER THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL DROP TO 2-4 FT IN THE
ATLANTIC AND REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
BREEZY, HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 72 85 72 86 / 0 0 0 10
WEST KENDALL 69 87 69 89 / 0 0 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 72 87 72 88 / 0 0 0 10
HOMESTEAD 72 85 72 86 / 0 0 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 83 72 84 / 0 0 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 72 83 72 85 / 0 0 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 73 88 74 89 / 0 0 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 71 85 71 86 / 0 0 0 10
BOCA RATON 73 83 72 85 / 0 0 0 10
NAPLES 69 87 70 86 / 0 0 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...17
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