652
FXUS62 KMFL 311251
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
751 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 750 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
- FROST LIKELY OVER MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY.
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE PALM BEACHES
TODAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 750 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
ROBUST COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKED IN THE COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE, AS TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE 30S OVER INLAND SW
FLORIDA AND THE BIG CYPRESS, AND EVEN AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN
COMMUNITIES OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. LOOKS LIKE WE EVEN HAD A LIGHT
FREEZE IN GLADES COUNTY WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS DROPPING TO 29-32F
AT SUNRISE. OVER METRO AREAS THE LOWS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S, WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S
CONFINED TO MIAMI BEACH. WITH A STEADY NW WIND IN THE 10 MPH
RANGE, WIND CHILLS EVEN IN THE WARMEST LOCATIONS WERE IN THE LOWER
40S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AIR MASS IS
LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WITH THE
HIGH REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA TODAY, A NW
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED AND KEEP THE COLD AND
DRY AIR ADVECTING DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY MAY NOT REACH THE FORECAST HIGHS, PERHAPS FALLING SHORT BY
ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S MOST AREAS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEGUN FALLING INTO THE 20S AT A FEW LOCATIONS
BEFORE 8 AM, AND THESE LOW DEWPOINTS WILL BE COMMON AREA-WIDE BY
LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. WOULDN'T
SURPRISE ME TO EVEN SEE SOME VALUES BELOW 20F WITH EFFICIENT MIXING
OF THE DRY AIR TO THE SURFACE. RH VALUES ARE ON TARGET TO FALL
INTO THE 20-30% RANGE BY MIDDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. FORTUNATELY,
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES, BUT EXTRA
PRECAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PREVENT WILDFIRES TODAY.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, WE WILL TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE
LIKELIHOOD OF FROST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY, AS THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE COLD AND DRY AIR IN PLACE FAVORS
TEMPERATURES DROPPING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. A FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AREAS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE, POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTY AND AS FAR EAST AS INLAND PALM BEACH
COUNTY. PATCHY FROST IS ALSO A GOOD POSSIBILITY AS FAR SOUTH AS
INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MAINLY WEST OF HOMESTEAD IN THE TYPICAL
COLDER SPOTS. FROST PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE 10 AM TO
NOON TIMEFRAME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN US IS ALLOWING A BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW TO USHER IN COLD AND DRY AIR TO SOUTH FL TO END 2025.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR
GLADES, HENDRY, INLAND PALM BEACH AND INLAND COLLIER WHERE EARLY
MORNING APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. OVER
THE REST OF SOUTH FL, APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY, HIGH TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S AROUND THE LAKE AND MID/UPPER 60S
OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FL.
THERE WILL BE ONE MORE COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES, PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST IS LIKELY TO FORM IN GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES, AND PERHAPS INLAND COLLIER AND PALM BEACH AS WELL.
CURRENT PLAN AFTER TALKING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES IS TO ISSUE
FROST PRODUCTS FOR THURSDAY MORNING AFTER THE CURRENT COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY PRODUCTS EXPIRE THIS MORNING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S AROUND THE LAKE, TO MID AND UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE EAST AND WEST COAST METRO.
WE'LL START A SLOW MODERATING TREND ON NEW YEARS DAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE GULF, HOWEVER DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
THE MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND THEN EVENTUALLY
SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY, HOWEVER THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL NOT CONTAIN MUCH OF A COLD
AIR PUSH, BUT IT WILL REINFORCE DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY, BUT THEN MODERATE TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
VFR AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEW
YEAR'S EVE FIREWORKS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY ALONG THE MIA-FLL-PBI CORRIDOR IN THE 05Z-08Z TIME
FRAME, BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT THE SMOKE FROM
SETTLING FOR TOO LONG. WIND 310-330 DEGREES 8-12 KNOTS THROUGH
23Z, THEN 6-8 KNOTS AFTER 23Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 104 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
HAZARDOUS NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE IN PLACE UNTIL 12Z THIS
MORNING FOR THE GULF WATERS AND 18Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. CAUTIONARY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE DAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY. SEAS THIS MORNING 4-
7 FT IN THE ATLANTIC AND 3-6 FT IN THE GULF. BY THIS EVENING WAVES
SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT IN THE ATLANTIC AND 2-4 FT IN THE GULF.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 104 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
LINGERING SWELL WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR PALM
BEACH TODAY, WITH AN ELEVATED RISK FOR BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE
BEACHES. CONDITIONS OVERALL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY HOWEVER AN ELEVATED
RISK WILL REMAIN FOR THE PALM BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 104 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY. AFTERNOON
MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 20-30% OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
WHILE WINDS WILL BE UNDER CRITERIA, THE PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH THE LOW RH VALUES MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 66 47 69 51 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 66 40 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 66 45 70 50 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 67 43 70 48 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 65 45 68 51 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 65 46 68 51 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 66 44 70 49 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 64 45 68 48 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 66 45 69 50 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 65 46 70 51 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-066-
067-070.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ650-
651-670-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
UPDATE/AVIATION...MOLLEDA
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