574
FXUS62 KMFL 071127
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
627 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
- AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH A QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
LARGE SCALE RIDGING REMAINS SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S., WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
AND TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.
WITH THIS RINSE AND REPEAT PATTERN IN PLACE, FOG DEVELOPMENT BECOMES
THE FOCUS AGAIN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS AREA FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED IN THOSE AREAS. CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME POCKETS OF DENSE FOG FORMING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST METRO
THOUGH EITHER. THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE GIVES A 50-70% CHANCE FOR
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT THAT RESULTS
IN VISIBILITIES FALLING TO A HALF MILE OR LESS BETWEEN 2-9 AM AND
ABOUT 20-30% FOR THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE EAST COAST METRO.
THEREFORE, DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY AGAIN, WHICH
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A CALM AND PLEASANT
COUPLE OF DAYS IN THIS MID-TO-LATE WEEK PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
THE STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING PATTERN CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS,
WHICH IS PREVENTING TROUGHS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM PUSHING
SOUTHWARDS AND INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA REGION. AS A RESULT, QUIET
WEATHER WILL BE ONGOING AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY AND PERHAPS MOST
OF SUNDAY. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (EPS/GEFS AND AI
ENSEMBLES) CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE REGION IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE GEFS
SUITE OF MEMBERS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE, ALTHOUGH 50% OR
MORE OF ITS MEMBERS DON'T HAVE THE FRONT CROSSING INTO THE SOUTH
FLORIDA REGION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. OTHER
ENSEMBLES DON'T HAVE NEARLY AS MANY OF THEIR MEMBERS PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH UNTIL EARLY MONDAY OR MONDAY AFTERNOON, SO AS OF
NOW A SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING MONDAY MORNING IS IN THE
FORECAST.
REGARDLESS OF HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES, IT
DOES APPEAR TO BE ANOTHER PREDOMINANTLY DRY ONE AS IT WEAKENS IN
ITS APPROACH. CURRENT 90TH PERCENTILE QPF FOR THIS TIME FRAME
(SUN- MON) IS ONLY UP TO 0.25", SO NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. ONCE THE FRONT
ARRIVES, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 70S FOR A COUPLE
DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. MOST OF THIS FOG SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS,
HOWEVER, PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KTMB
AND KAPF THROUGH 14Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WSW AFTER 18Z
AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MID-
WEEK AND LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESIDES
OVER THE AREA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED MOSTLY AT 2 FEET OR LESS ACROSS ALL
LOCAL WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 81 67 81 69 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 83 62 81 64 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 83 65 81 68 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 81 65 81 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 66 79 69 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 67 80 69 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 82 65 81 67 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 81 65 81 69 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 82 66 81 69 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 79 60 82 64 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...CWC
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