435
FXUS62 KMFL 070841
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
341 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 328 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
- BETS CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN VERY LOW CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
NBM AND ENSEMBLES SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER SPREADING ACROSS THE
SE CONUS AS A DEEP TROUGH/FRONTAL COMPLEX PUSH E/SE TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA,
WHILE THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS BEING PUSHED FURTHER EASTWARD
BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL VEER LOW-LVL WINDS
ACROSS SOFLO TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING MOISTURE ADVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS PUSH PWATS TO NEAR 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MIGHT PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFTING
TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, DESPITE OF RATHER MODEST CAPE
VALUES. ONSHORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS,
MAINLY AROUND EAST COAST METRO AREAS. POPS REMAIN IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE, SO, EVEN WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE, A WIDE-SPREAD
RAINY DAY IS NOT EXPECTED.
FOR SATURDAY, RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL AGAIN EXPAND INTO THE
AREA AND RELAX PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS SOFLO. DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA, WHILE WINDS BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AT THE SFC.
MEANWHILE, ZONAL FLOW ESTABLISHES ALOFT AND PWATS DROP TO NEAR ONE
INCH. THIS WILL DROP POPS INTO SINGLE DIGITS WITH BENIGN WEATHER
PREVAILING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
MODELS DEPICT DRIER AIR ALOFT LINGERING OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
WITH MAINLY LIGHT SSW WINDS. LATEST NBM AND GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HAVE
DROPPED POPS EVEN FURTHER WITH BASICALLY SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY.
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE REGARDING A DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AND REGARDLESS
OF THE FINAL OUTCOME OF THE COMPLEX SYNOPTIC SCENARIO FOR THE E
CONUS, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WEATHER-WISE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FROPA, EXCEPT FOR LOWERING TEMPERATURES A BIT.
COLDEST TEMPS SEEM TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
THE PERSISTING NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DROP INTO THE LOW-
MID 40S AROUND THE LAKE REGION, AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 60S
AROUND THE LAKE REGION AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE. THE AIR
MASS GRADUALLY MODERATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY FRIDAY. THIS
TIMING IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCENARIO
EVOLVES, SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TIME LINE MIGHT BE
REQUIRED BASED ON UPCOMING MODEL RUNS.
ALL IN ALL, THE WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD OFFER THE
FIRST BONAFIDE TASTE OF THE UPCOMING WINTER SEASON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SE FLOW IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE AFTER 15Z. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A WESTERLY GULF BREEZE AT
APF AFTER 18Z. MID AND UPPER DECK CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT GENERALLY VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
EAST-SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS CONTINUE TODAY, THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTHERLY LATE THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA'S COASTAL WATERS. HIGH-END ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 85 72 87 74 / 30 20 10 0
WEST KENDALL 86 69 88 70 / 30 20 10 0
OPA-LOCKA 86 72 88 73 / 30 20 10 0
HOMESTEAD 85 71 86 72 / 20 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 72 86 73 / 30 20 10 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 85 72 87 73 / 30 20 10 0
PEMBROKE PINES 88 72 89 74 / 30 20 10 0
WEST PALM BEACH 84 71 87 72 / 40 20 10 0
BOCA RATON 86 71 88 72 / 30 20 0 0
NAPLES 84 71 86 71 / 30 20 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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