861
FXUS62 KMFL 311738
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
138 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 134 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
- SOUTH FLORIDA IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
TODAY. DOWNPOURS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH
U/L HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS GRADUALLY MIGRATING EASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHILE THE W ATL SFC RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS LINGERING JUST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SYNOPTIC
SCENARIO WILL KEEP A GENERALLY E/SE WIND REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK, AND CONTINUING MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS SOFLO.
MODELS SHOW THE MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS BRINGING HIGH CHANCES OF
RAIN EACH DAY, WITH SOUNDING AND MODEL PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES, AND
CAPE/MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 2-3K J/KG RANGE. ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA, WHICH
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. MAX POPS REMAIN IN THE 70-80% RANGE EACH DAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG, WITH A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE. MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND HEAVY
RAIN.
LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS A KEY CONCERN, ESPECIALLY OVER URBAN
AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING. LATEST WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC)
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK KEEPS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5% CHANCE) TODAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN HIT THE LOW-MID 90S, ALONG
WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-110F RANGE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
A TUTT FEATURE WILL MOVE FURTHER EASTWARD AND AWAY FORM THE STATE
BY MID WEEK, WHILE A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE SE
CONUS. MODELS ALSO AGREE IN KEEPING THE W ATL RIDGE AXIS LINGERING
AROUND THE SE ATL SEABOARD, JUST NORTH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THIS WILL KEEP THE PREVAILING E/SE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
SOFLO, WITH DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTING DURING THE
LONG TERM.
MODEL PWATS KEEP VALUES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, MAINLY AROUND OR
ABOVE 2" THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL AGAIN HAPPEN WITH THE ONSET
OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE, FIRST ALONG THE ATLANTIC METRO AREAS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN PUSHING INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT EACH DAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE COASTLINES, AND MID 70S OVER THE
INTERIOR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE ESE. THESE WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE WNW AS A GULF BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. CONVECTION
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS THIS EVENING
PROGRESSES AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, WHERE
WINDS MAY BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY EACH AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE
DEVELOPS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EACH DAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS,
ALONG WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS, WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 91 81 91 / 30 70 30 60
WEST KENDALL 77 91 79 91 / 30 70 20 70
OPA-LOCKA 80 92 79 92 / 30 80 30 60
HOMESTEAD 79 91 79 92 / 30 70 30 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 90 80 91 / 30 80 40 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 91 81 91 / 40 80 40 60
PEMBROKE PINES 79 91 80 91 / 30 80 30 60
WEST PALM BEACH 78 91 79 92 / 40 70 30 70
BOCA RATON 79 90 79 90 / 50 80 30 60
NAPLES 76 90 77 91 / 40 70 40 80
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CWC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page