642
FXUS62 KMFL 191102
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
702 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 701 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ALL SOUTH FL
WATERS.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
MODELS DEPICT A LINGERING MID LVL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SE CONUS AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CLOSER TO SOFLO, A
STATIONARY DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN LINGERING THE
CENTRAL CUBA-BAHAMAS AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CAN BE SEEN
MOVING ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, BUT ANY UPPER LVL ENHANCEMENT
THEY COULD PROVIDE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. COMBINED
WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS BRINGING BREEZIER NORTHERLY
WINDS, EXPECT THE CURRENT STRATIFORM CLOUD DECKS TO FINALLY BEGIN
PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE THE AIR MASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRY OUT TODAY,
ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY AND LACK OF LIFTING WILL REDUCE POPS IN
GENERAL TO SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. NBM
AND HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SOME LATE AFTERNOON MARINE SHOWERS
DRIFTING INTO THE PALM BEACH/LAKE REGION, WHICH WILL BE KEPT IN THE
GRIDS FOR NOW. SOME INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN LOW-
END COVERAGE ALONG EAST COAST AREAS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THESE COASTAL SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO THE
NE. THEN MOISTURE FINALLY DECREASES ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO END AND A
DRY PERIOD TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER DAYTIME HEATING
TODAY. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 70S
ACROSS SOFLO, WARMEST OVER WEST COAST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
MODELS SHOW RIDGING EXPANDING ACROSS THE GULF AND STRETCHING INTO
THE STATE, REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EACH DAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. IT
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GO BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
80S BY THE WEEKEND, A TREND THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM.
THE DRY PATTERN SEEMS TO BEGIN MODIFYING BY MID WEEK A AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE SE CONUS WHILE PUSHING THE RIDGE
FURTHER INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO
GRADUALLY RETURN TO SOFLO, BUT WITH BEST POPS LIKELY REMAINING IN
THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE AT BEST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
NW WINDS WILL BECOME NNE 10-15 KTS AFTER 15Z. SOME SCATTERED
COASTAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. SCT MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
ROBUST NNE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE GULF WATERS WILL ALSO REMAIN
HAZARDOUS UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC 5-9 FT,
AND 3-6 FT IN THE GULF. OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
A PERSISTING N/NE SWELL WILL KEEP A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 76 63 75 62 / 10 30 30 10
WEST KENDALL 78 59 78 57 / 10 30 20 10
OPA-LOCKA 77 62 76 61 / 10 30 30 10
HOMESTEAD 77 63 77 61 / 10 30 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 64 74 64 / 10 40 30 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 75 64 74 63 / 10 40 30 10
PEMBROKE PINES 78 63 77 62 / 10 40 30 10
WEST PALM BEACH 75 62 74 61 / 10 50 30 10
BOCA RATON 75 63 74 62 / 10 50 40 10
NAPLES 79 58 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CMF
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