200
FXUS62 KMFL 120623
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
223 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 117 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
- EXTREMELY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF EXPECTED
ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES.
- GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY.
- MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THROUGH
EARLY-WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
SUPERPOSITIONING OF SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM WAVES OFF THE
EAST COAST OF THE US HAS RESULTED IN A MORE AMPLIFIED AND STRONGER
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS HAS ALSO RESULTED
IN A STRENGTHENING OF THE SURFACE RIDGE SPRAWLING THE ENTIRE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 25-30 MPH, THOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS COULD BE CLOSER TO 35 MPH. ON MONDAY, WINDS AND
GUSTS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 MPH WEAKER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
OTHERWISE, THE RIDGING PATTERN AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN BENIGN
CONDITIONS WITH NO MEANINGFUL PRECIP EXPECTED. A STRAY MORNING
SPRINKLE OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THIS FLOW REGIME.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
THROUGH LATE WEEK, THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND POOL OF DRY AIR
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH UNMENTIONABLE RAIN
CHANCES, WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW, AND A STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE,
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA BY MID-WEEK. ELSEWHERE, MID 80S WILL BE MORE
COMMON.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SUPERPOSITIONING WAVES IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT GETS PINCHED OFF FROM THE MEAN
FLOW AND EVENTUALLY DRIFTS BACK WESTWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE
EASTWARD MOVING RIDGE AXIS. THIS IS THE MAIN SOURCE OF FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLES AGREE ON THE CONTINUAL
WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES WESTWARD, BUT THE TIMING AND
SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LESS CLEAR. GENERALLY
SPEAKING THOUGH, BY THE END OF THE WEEK THERE MAY BE SOME MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST COAST IN THE MORNINGS, WITH SOME
SCATTERED SEABREEZE CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
IN THE AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY (AROUND 25 KTS) LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE DAY, BEFORE SUBSIDING ONCE AGAIN AROUND SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
SOLID ADVISORY LEVELS WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT THE TOP-END
OF ADVISORY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS,
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE ON MONDAY. SEAS WILL REACH THEIR PEAK
BY TONIGHT AND CREST IN THE 6-8 FOOT RANGE ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM. WHILE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK, CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AS WINDS AND GUSTS LIKELY WON'T DROP BELOW 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHILE THE STRONGEST AND MOST FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND TOMORROW, THE HIGH RISK FOR DEADLY RIP CURRENTS WILL
MOST LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO RESULT IN ELEVATED SURF, WITH
BREAKERS AROUND 4-6 FT THROUGH MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 69 81 71 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 82 66 83 67 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 81 68 82 70 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 80 69 81 70 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 70 79 71 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 79 69 79 71 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 82 69 83 71 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 79 68 80 69 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 79 69 79 71 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 86 64 87 66 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM....HARRIGAN
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
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