045
FXUS62 KMFL 102026
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
426 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 349 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
- HIGH (LEVEL 4/5) CHANCE OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY, WITH CHANCES
FURTHER INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
THE SOUTHERN STREAM LIES FROM SOUTHERN TX, THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY, ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED WITHIN IT ARE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES THAT ARE
PROVIDING A SLIGHT BOOST IN DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A CHANNEL OF LOW-
LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE EXISTS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE AND HAPPENS TO BE STREAMING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE. STEERING LAYER S/SW FLOW HAS RESULTED
IN BOTH SEABREEZES BEING ABLE TO MOVE INLAND, THOUGH THE GULF
BREEZE WILL END UP MAKING MORE PROGRESS THAN THE ATLANTIC. ALL OF
THE ABOVE HAS PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, AS THE SEABREEZES START TO
MERGE LATER THIS EVENING A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP NEAR
THE LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY AND MOVE GENERALLY EASTWARD.
THE SAME GENERAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW AS
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OVERHEAD REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. UPSTREAM
HOWEVER, A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BE SUPERPOSITIONING WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND DEEPEN THE BASE OF
THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
WE'LL HAVE ONE MORE AFTERNOON WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES THAT LIKELY HAD THEIR ORIGINS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.
IN ADDITION TO THE WARM AIR ALOFT, THE NEARSHORE SSTS FOR BOTH THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS ARE RUNNING GENERALLY 2-4 DEGC ABOVE
NORMAL, RESULTING IN LITTLE RELIEF AND ELEVATED MOISTURE CONTENT.
THESE FACTORS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT WHERE LOWS HOVER NEAR 80
DEGREES ALONG THE COASTS AND ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 102-105 DEGF. BEFORE
SPENDING ANY PERIOD OF TIME OUTDOORS, ESPECIALLY IF STRENUOUS
ACTIVITY IS PLANNED, VISIT READY.GOV/HEAT AND BE SURE TO TAKE
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THIS NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK, AND SWINGING
ACROSS FL BY MID WEEK. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE
STATE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND SETTLE ACROSS THE STRAITS BEFORE
DISSIPATING MID WEEK. A SHORT WAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE ON TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING THE AREA AND TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. DEPENDING ON TIMING, THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, AS WELL AS AN ISOLATED URBAN
FLOODING RISK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT CLOSELY OVER THE
COMING DAYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE
SHORT WAVE AND BACKDOOR FRONT WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE METRO, TO
LOW AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S/70S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A STORM TO IMPACT A TERMINAL
WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT PBI, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WHILE COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY INCREASE A BIT
TOMORROW, A COMBINATION OF THE STORMS COMING LATE IN THE DAY AS
WELL AS UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF STORMS OUT OF THE TAF
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY SSE FLOW WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT AT APF
WHERE WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS (AWAY FROM THE SEABREEZE ZONE) WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THIS GENERALLY MEANS LOW SEAS AS WELL,
HOWEVER, NORTHERLY SWELL WILL SPREAD DOWN THE GULF STREAM IN THE
WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS COULD RAISE SEAS TO
ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE WED/THUR TIMEFRAME BEFORE SEAS CALM ONCE
AGAIN. SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK AND
THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED LATE IN THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 90 77 90 / 10 30 40 90
WEST KENDALL 77 92 74 91 / 10 30 30 90
OPA-LOCKA 79 92 77 91 / 10 30 50 90
HOMESTEAD 78 90 76 90 / 10 20 20 80
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 88 78 87 / 10 30 60 80
N FT LAUDERDALE 79 89 76 87 / 10 30 60 80
PEMBROKE PINES 80 93 78 92 / 10 30 60 90
WEST PALM BEACH 79 90 76 87 / 10 50 60 80
BOCA RATON 81 89 77 87 / 10 40 60 80
NAPLES 77 91 76 91 / 10 10 10 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
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