216
FXUS62 KMFL 112314
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
614 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 612 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN.
- WINDS SURGING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE
AND BEACH CONDITIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS.
- ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT COULD DROP ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING REINFORCING COLD AIR AND MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE FEATURE
DRAPED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE; IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTH
FLORIDA LATER THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
ON ITS APPROACH, WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASING INTO THE 40-50%
RANGE FOR THE EAST COAST AND LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AFTER 8PM.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, WITH 24 HOUR
ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW HALF AN INCH. WINDS WILL
SURGE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL, AND A
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND BALMY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY APPROACHING
RECORD VALUES AT SOME OF OUR CLIMATE SITES.
FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING OUT OVER THE FL STRAITS
SOMETIME EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ITS PRESENCE WILL HELP KEEP ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONALLY,
NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S NEAR THE INTERIOR AND IN
THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OUT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND ITS PRESENCE WILL HELP KEEP ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONALLY,
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN, AND NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MID-WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S NEAR
THE INTERIOR AND IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, WITH
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SHOW ANOTHER, STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION
DURING THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK. THE NBM DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO
FAIRLY WELL, WITH POPS IN THE 20-40% RANGE WED-FRI, AND LOWS
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
UPPER 40S-LOW 50S ACROSS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
BRINGING MAINLY OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EAST COAST SITES. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD
PREVAIL OVERALL, BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS EVENING
BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON MONDAY. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THAT COULD
LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE WILL PROMOTE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE STARTING ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 67 77 67 78 / 50 20 20 20
WEST KENDALL 63 78 62 79 / 40 20 20 20
OPA-LOCKA 66 77 65 79 / 50 20 20 20
HOMESTEAD 66 78 66 79 / 40 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 67 75 66 76 / 50 20 20 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 67 75 66 76 / 40 20 20 20
PEMBROKE PINES 66 77 64 78 / 50 20 20 20
WEST PALM BEACH 66 75 66 77 / 30 20 20 20
BOCA RATON 66 77 66 78 / 40 20 20 20
NAPLES 60 78 61 79 / 10 10 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY
FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page