334
FXUS62 KMFL 010522
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1222 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRE ACTIVITY MAY CREATE DANGEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF I-75, TAMIAMI TRAIL, AND SR-29
TODAY.
- INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS IT CONTINUES TO
FIZZLE OUT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING, ALTHOUGH COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZIER NORTHEAST WINDS BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE IMMEDIATE
EAST COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
BREEZY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE (30-
40%) FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AMPLE MOISTURE
REMAINS WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST DUE TO THE BREEZIER EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW.
SURFACE FLOW VEERS MORE EASTERLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S FOR EAST COAST METRO
AREAS, HOWEVER DUE TO THE LONG DURATION EASTERLY FLOW, A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED FOR INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND HIGHS COULD
APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
GENERALLY VFR FOR THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR KAPF EARLY THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR LOWER CIGS FOR SOME OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW FOR IMPACTS AT EAST COAST SITES, BUT WAS
COMFORTABLE KEEPING FEW005 FOR THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PATCHY FOG.
BY 15-16Z, WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NE TO AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE
DAY. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AROUND EASTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN
17-18Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
OUTSIDE OF LOCALLY ELEVATED SEAS AND WINDS IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BENIGN ACROSS ALL
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY DENSE FOG
MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WATERS, WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWER VISIBILITIES THAN NORMAL. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT NEXT WEEK WILL ACT TO ESTABLISH A
BREEZY TO AT TIMES GUSTY EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL USHER IN A DURATION OF LIKELY
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ACROSS ALL LOCAL BEACHES TODAY, HOWEVER
THE RISK IS POISED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 81 68 79 69 / 40 40 20 20
WEST KENDALL 83 64 82 66 / 40 40 20 20
OPA-LOCKA 82 67 81 68 / 50 40 20 20
HOMESTEAD 82 68 80 69 / 40 30 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 68 77 68 / 50 40 20 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 68 78 68 / 50 30 20 20
PEMBROKE PINES 83 67 82 68 / 50 40 20 20
WEST PALM BEACH 78 67 78 68 / 40 30 20 30
BOCA RATON 79 67 79 68 / 50 30 20 20
NAPLES 81 63 82 64 / 20 20 20 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
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