437
FXUS62 KMFL 072255
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
655 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 651 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT ALL EAST
COAST BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- HEAT INDICES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 100S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA TODAY.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AS DEEP
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 651 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
WITH LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE, THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF LIFT
HAS BEEN THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY, WHICH HAS REMAINED PINNED ON THE
GULF COAST GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. LATEST UPPER-AIR
OBSERVATIONS, INCLUDING THE 18Z MFL SOUNDING AND ACARS DATA FROM
LOCAL AIRPORTS, CONTINUE TO SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, WITH PWATS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES, GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE GULF BREEZE HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY LOW-TOPPED, AND THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTS, WITH LOWER 70S
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL BE
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FOR TODAY AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. A STOUT MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT
TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY AND IN THE
DAYS TO FOLLOW, BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPLISHED BY THE
END OF THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. UNDER THIS RIDGE PATTERN, THE LOW
LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL BE OUT OF A PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY
DIRECTION, WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN ANCHORED GULF BREEZE WHICH WILL
BE THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM IN THIS REGIME. AS A RESULT, THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE LOCATED IN THIS GULF COAST REGION AT 50-60%
TODAY AND TOMORROW AS SOME EXTRA MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA
DESPITE THE RIDGE PATTERN BEING MAINTAINED. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP REGARDLESS OF THE LOCAL HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN SINCE THE GULF
BREEZE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHALLOWER SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED STORMS. THERE ARE NOT ANY MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED
FROM ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY OR ON MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR MOST
AREAS TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE
MID 90S. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 90S IN
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND 100-105F IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL CAUSE THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO BREAK DOWN BY MID-
WEEK, WHICH IN RESPONSE WILL ALLOW SOME POSITIVE VORTICITY
IMPULSES TO ADVECT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY, MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN AND SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MID-
WEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL ATTEMPT TO SUPPRESS VERTICAL ASCENT, BUT
GIVEN THESE POSITIVE VORTICITY IMPULSES AND DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS
1.8-2+ INCHES) THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND LIKELY INTO LATE WEEK AS WELL.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS
TO DIVERGE, WHICH CREATES MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST HEADING
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUITE HIGHLIGHTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO FORM IN THE CARIBBEAN AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT PROPAGATES NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. CONVERSELY, THE ECMWF SUITE HAS A LOW FORMING OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN
GYRE (CAG) AND GETS BLOCKED FROM ADVECTING NORTHWARDS. REGARDLESS
OF THE EXACT SOLUTION FOR THIS TIME FRAME, THE ONE THING THAT IS
CLEAR IS THAT ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND ENOUGH ENERGY
EXISTS FROM DAILY MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND OTHER SYNOPTIC
INFLUENCES THAT CAN SPARK WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. AS A RESULT, POPS RISE TO 70-80% OR HIGHER FOR THURSDAY
ONWARDS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY NOT EXCEEDING THE
UPPER 80S FOR SEVERAL DAYS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER DIMINISHES HOW HOT IT CAN GET.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 651 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR APF IS EXPECTED TO TAPER
OFF AFTER 2Z. EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 16Z MONDAY
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND REMAIN AROUND 10-12 KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED AT KAPF AFTER 18Z AS
A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY AND THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS AS THE
GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
LIMITED AGAIN TODAY, BUT THIS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES. SEAS ARE EXPECTED AT 2-3 FEET OR LESS TODAY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 1-2 FEET OR LESS FOR THE GULF
WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RISK WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING AND INTO EARLY THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 77 90 77 88 / 0 10 10 20
WEST KENDALL 75 91 75 90 / 0 20 10 30
OPA-LOCKA 77 91 77 90 / 0 10 10 20
HOMESTEAD 77 90 77 89 / 0 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 88 78 87 / 0 10 10 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 88 78 87 / 0 10 10 20
PEMBROKE PINES 78 92 78 91 / 0 10 10 20
WEST PALM BEACH 78 89 78 88 / 0 10 10 20
BOCA RATON 79 88 79 87 / 0 10 10 20
NAPLES 75 92 76 91 / 40 20 40 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...DPB
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