161
FXUS62 KMFL 122246
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
546 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 544 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
- OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO.
- HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TODAY.
- ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT COULD DROP ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE
THIS WEEK, BRINGING REINFORCING COLD AIR AND MORE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS WORKED ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA AND IS
NOW STALLING OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO
KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATER TODAY, TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN INTO
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS TOO STABLE WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARDS THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA AND SLOWLY WASH OUT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A LIFTING MECHANISM THAT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO SPARK SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION (MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA AND EAST COAST METRO) LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT, ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY CONCERNS WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
HIGHLIGHTING NO MORE THAN THAN 0.3-0.5" OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN FOR THE GULF COAST SINCE WINDS SHIFTING
TO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WILL CREATE SOME COASTAL CONVERGENCE EFFECTS
ALONG THE EAST COAST. EITHER WAY, NO IMPACTFUL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
AND ANY AMOUNT WILL HELP ALLEVIATE AT LEAST A LITTLE OF THE ONGOING
DROUGHT. THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN WINDS AS WELL THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, BUT LIKELY NOT GUSTING TO MORE THAN 15-20 MPH.
HEADING TOWARDS THE MID-WEEK PERIOD, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THERE WON'T BE A
STRONG ENOUGH PUSH OF DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE FRONT
LOSES ITS STRENGTH. THUS, SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH AGAIN ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY MORNING EXPECTED
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR SW FLORIDA AND THE LOW TO MID 60S
FOR THE EAST COAST METRO.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OUT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE MID-WEEK PERIOD, WITH ITS PRESENCE HELPING KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE EAST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MOVING FORWARD INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD, THE PATTERN STARTS TO
UNDERGO SOME MUCH BIGGER CHANGES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SYNOPTIC-
SCALE TROUGHING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MERIDIONAL JET-STREAM FLOW OCCURS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
STATES. THIS TROUGH HAS POTENTIAL TO COVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE EASTERN
SEABOARD FROM MAINE DOWN TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS THIS TROUGH
AMPLIFIES, NEAR-SURFACE FLOW IN SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE AREA FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT (PWATS AROUND 1.5"). BY THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM THE TROUGH WILL RUSH SOUTHWARDS
AND CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH POPS
AROUND 40% BEFORE A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP TEMPS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN WITH
THIS MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, IMPACTS FROM RAINFALL ARE NOT
EXPECTED SO THE PRIMARY ITEM TO MONITOR WILL BE THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY MAY
NOT REACH 70 DUE TO THIS COLDER AIR.
THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH CALMER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
A MORE STABLE/ZONAL PATTERN AND THE ABUNDANTLY DRY AIR MASS SETTLE
IN. BEYOND THAT, GUIDANCE HINTS AT ANOTHER FRONT POSSIBILITY FOR THE
SUN-MON TIME FRAME, BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THAT IT IS AT
THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
OCCASIONAL SHRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF TOMORROW MAINLY FOR
EAST COAST SITES. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NE AROUND 5-7 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. MVFR CIGS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BUT
LINGERING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SURGE WILL PROMOTE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TODAY. THIS HIGH RISK IS
LIKELY TO LAST INTO MID-WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN EAST-NORTHEAST
DIRECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 68 78 67 80 / 30 30 20 30
WEST KENDALL 63 80 62 81 / 20 30 20 30
OPA-LOCKA 66 79 66 81 / 30 30 20 30
HOMESTEAD 66 80 66 81 / 20 30 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 67 76 65 78 / 40 40 30 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 67 77 66 78 / 40 40 30 30
PEMBROKE PINES 66 78 64 80 / 30 30 20 30
WEST PALM BEACH 67 76 65 78 / 30 40 30 30
BOCA RATON 67 78 65 80 / 40 40 30 30
NAPLES 63 79 64 76 / 10 20 20 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...REDMAN
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