290
FXUS62 KMFL 040512
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1212 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1129 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
- A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST.
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS WEEK.
- HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION FROM AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF THE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. QUICK MOVING COASTAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERALL, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
EAST COAST, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS
WELL. WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FORCING, THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WARM GULFSTREAM WATERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY AND TOMORROW
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED
EACH DAY. BREEZY EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE REMAINS (PWATS 1.2-1.4 INCHES)
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST. SURFACE FLOW VEERS MORE EASTERLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S FOR EAST COAST METRO
AREAS, HOWEVER DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
FOR INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK-WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH A MAINLY
DRY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ALTHOUGH COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOWHERE NEAR HIGH
ENOUGH TO EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAF. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR ANY SITE THAT DOES RECEIVE A SHOWER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
EXPECT A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
AND NIGHT OVER LOCAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WILL LEAD TO A STRONG EASTERLY REGIME THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK.
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 17-20 KNOTS COULD BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 71 81 72 82 / 30 20 30 30
WEST KENDALL 67 83 68 84 / 20 20 30 30
OPA-LOCKA 70 82 70 84 / 30 20 30 30
HOMESTEAD 71 82 72 83 / 20 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 79 71 81 / 30 20 20 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 70 80 71 81 / 30 20 20 30
PEMBROKE PINES 70 83 71 84 / 30 20 30 30
WEST PALM BEACH 69 80 70 82 / 30 10 20 20
BOCA RATON 69 80 70 82 / 30 20 20 30
NAPLES 67 85 67 85 / 10 30 20 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
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