333
FXUS62 KMFL 270817
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
417 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 407 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING LATE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, FAVORING
EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR EVEN
SEVERE.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF URBAN OR
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. OTHER HAZARDS INCLUDE LIGHTNING
STRIKES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES WILL AGAIN RETURN TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATING THE UPPER LVLS WHILE MID-LVL RIDGING OVER
THE GULF STATES EXPANDS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. MEANWHILE,
A TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX IS MIGRATING INTO THE W ATL, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE SE CONUS. OVERALL, THERE
WILL BE PERSISTENT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE DEFINED BY WEAK WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW, WINDS AT THE SFC MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO AGAIN BECOME FOCAL POINTS FOR
LIFTING/DEEPER CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. LATEST HIGH-RES AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS KEEP
SOFLO UNDER STREAMING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE, BUT WITH A POSSIBLE
MID-LVL LAYER OF DRIER AIR DEVELOPING TODAY DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GULF. 00Z MFL SOUNDING AND
MODEL SOUNDING DATA DEPICT PWATS IN THE 2.3-2.6" RANGE, WHILE
CAPE/DCAPE SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 2K-3K/700-800 J/KG RESPECTIVELY,
AND ALONG WITH LIS IN THE -5 TO -7 C RANGE. THESE PARAMETERS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHLY UNSTABLE LOW ATMOSPHERE, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS.
THE MENTIONED WEAK NATURE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW COULD AGAIN RESULT IN
SLOW-MOVING STORMS, WHICH COULD BRING LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN
ADDITION, THE OTHER HAZARDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LARGE HAIL. THE SFC
WIND WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL AGAIN FAVOR EAST COAST LOCATIONS,
INCLUDING THE METRO AREAS, FOR HAVING THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. EAST MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES SEEM TO
CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS ATTM WITH MAX VALUES IN THE 70-80% BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF SOFLO WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S
EACH DAY AND DESPITE OF THE EXPECTED RAIN/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
THIS IS DUE TO HAVING ENOUGH TIME DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING TO OCCUR. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN HIT THE LOW 90S, WHILE MORNING LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S NEAR THE COASTS AND LOW TO MID 70S INLAND.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
LATEST GFS/EURO AND NBM POPS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS LOWER VALUES
DURING THE LONG TERM COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
MID-WEEK DRYING TREND. ONE CONTRIBUTING FACTOR WILL BE PATCHES OF
SAHARAN DUST FILTERING INTO SOFLO, WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING
STABILITY AND A STRONGER MID-LVL CAP. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
REDUCTION IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND LESS CLOUD COVERAGE EACH DAY.
RAIN COVERAGE DROPS TO 20-40% EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UP
TO 50% AROUND THE LAKE REGION WHERE THE BEST POOL OF MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. THEN FOR THE WEEKEND, A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES WILL
TRAVEL ALONG A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND PUSH SOME OF
THE LINGERING MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA BACK INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE WITH A GRADIENT OF POPS
SOUTH-TO-NORTH FROM 30% AROUND MIAMI-DADE TO 55-60% AROUND THE LAKE
REGION.
WITH LESS RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMALS, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S AND LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S OVER INLAND SOUTH
FL TO AROUND 80 CLOSER TO THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 15Z, WITH L/V WINDS TURNING
GENERALLY SW IN THE 6-10KT RANGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS, ESPECIALLY AT THE ATLANTIC SITES.
WINDS BECOME L/V AFTER 00Z WITH VFR PREVAILING TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA WATERS, WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND
SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 90 78 92 79 / 80 10 50 0
WEST KENDALL 91 75 92 76 / 80 10 50 0
OPA-LOCKA 92 78 93 78 / 80 10 50 0
HOMESTEAD 91 77 92 79 / 80 20 50 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 79 92 79 / 70 20 60 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 91 78 92 79 / 70 20 60 0
PEMBROKE PINES 92 79 93 80 / 80 20 50 0
WEST PALM BEACH 92 77 93 77 / 50 20 70 10
BOCA RATON 91 77 91 78 / 60 20 70 0
NAPLES 91 79 90 81 / 30 40 40 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page