492
FXUS62 KMFL 131704
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1204 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1201 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
NO CHANGES TO THE NEAR OR LONG TERM FORECAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLEASANT TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. NO RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL START TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING DURING THIS TIME FRAME, HOWEVER, SINCE
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, THIS
WILL SHIFT THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. AT THE
SURFACE, A STRONG AND LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY HEADING INTO
FRIDAY. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE DRY AIR MASS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST GLOBAL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS NICELY AS PWAT VALUES GENERALLY
HOVER BETWEEN 0.3 INCHES WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO 0.8 INCHES
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TODAY. SOME SLOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL REMAIN
TOO DRY OVER ALL TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AS PWAT VALUES
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 0.7 AND 0.9 INCHES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF THE MODERATING TREND IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS WHILE HIGHS
ON FRIDAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE LAKE REGION TO THE
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE LATEST GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE
MODEL SUITE REMAINS IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO A
POTENTIAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PUSHING CLOSE TO, IF NOT
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF GUIDANCE SUITE IS MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH A STRONGER AND FASTER SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS GUIDANCE SUITE IS SLOWER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH IT REMAINING OFFSHORE. AT THE SURFACE, THIS WILL
CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF AN IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AS
THE DRY AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE WILL HOLD STRONG. A BRIEF
PASSING SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER,
THAT WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AS MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. AS THIS
FRONT STALLS OUT TO THE SOUTH, HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE VERY WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CENTER OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE STARTING TO SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY
ON SATURDAY, BEFORE BECOMING RATHER LIGHT AND SEA BREEZE DRIVEN ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S EACH DAY, HOWEVER,
THERE COULD BE SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THAT RISE INTO
THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY.
MOVING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MID LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN
ZONAL THROUGH MONDAY, HOWEVER, A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF MAY TRY PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH
FLORIDA HEADING INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. WITH
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUING AND PWATS RISING, THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF,
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE BREEZE FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ON MONDAY, HOWEVER, THEY MAY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON
TUESDAY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z PERIOD. NNW WINDS IN PALM BEACH AND BROWARD
WILL BECOME NE JOINING THE REST OF THE TAF SITES BY 19Z. LIGHT NNW
WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THEY SHIFT
AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4 FEET THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS ONSHORE
FLOW PERSISTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 64 80 67 80 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 60 81 62 81 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 63 81 66 82 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 63 80 65 80 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 64 79 68 79 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 64 79 68 80 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 64 82 67 83 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 63 80 67 80 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 64 81 67 81 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 57 81 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CMF
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