602
FXUS62 KMFL 191545
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1045 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2020
UPDATE
QUIET MORNING WEATHER-WISE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. RADAR IMAGERY WAS ONLY SHOWING A FEW SMALL
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY VEER SOUTH AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM
THIS FRONT OVER SOFLO ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNTIL THE LATE
NIGHT/OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS ON
TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE REQUIRED FOR THE MORNING
FORECAST UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 630 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2020/
AVIATION...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY WITH WINDS GOING FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT AND THEN WESTERLY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN
THIS ISSUANCE. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION
AND TRAILING LOW CIGS AS WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2020/
.SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WITH COLDER WEATHER
BEHIND THE FRONT MID-WEEK...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ONE MORE DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND CARIBBEAN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GENERALLY
DRY AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH AND THEN EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 80S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE AREA, THOUGH SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY REMAIN A BIT COOLER
THANKS TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES
WILL ACCORDINGLY CLIMB WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS FAIRLY
LIMITED WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT MOST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT AND ANY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS REMAINING MAINLY SHOWERS. AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND EXITS THE REGION BY MONDAY
EVENING, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY RETURN OVER THE PENINSULA
OF FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WILL REACH
INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE INLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH THE SOUTH FLORIDA METRO AREAS REMAINING IN THE 50S.
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE WHICH COULD PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS BELOW 40 DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
AND BELOW 50 DEGREES ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE EAST COAST METRO.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS HELPS PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL END UP MAKING
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THE COLDEST OF THE PERIOD,
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S WEST OF THE LAKE
AND ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO THE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50
RIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT, WIND CHILL VALUES COULD DIP INTO THE LOW 30S
TO MID 40S. ON THE OTHER HAND, FROST SHOULDN'T REALLY BE OF MUCH
CONCERN WITH WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH EXPECTED.
AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATES OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON TUESDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND
DEEPENS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST, KEEPING THE GRADIENT TIGHT AND
OUR WINDS FAIRLY BREEZY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES
QUICKLY OFF FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE PARENT MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
BY THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE ATLANTIC SPREADING INTO THE EAST COAST AND THE REST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA LATER IN THE WEEK.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH DEEP LAYER TROUGHING INDUCING AND
DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW AROUND OK/KS ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY THIS
SYSTEM IS WORKING IT'S WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS, PUSHING INTO
FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AND LIKELY DRAGGING ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. ONE THING TO WATCH THOUGH WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SECOND SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE GULF DUE TO SOME SPLITTING JET STRUCTURE OCCURRING AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. STILL HAVE A WAYS TO GO FOR IT, BUT IT COULD BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH.
MARINE...
AS MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WITH
DIMINISHING WIND, SWELL, AND SEAS, THE RESPITE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
AS ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT BY TUESDAY WITH
ELEVATED SEAS REMAINING UNTIL WEDNESDAY IN THE GULF AND THROUGH LATE
WEEK IN THE ATLANTIC DUE TO SWELL FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC.
AVIATION...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GOING
FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN WESTERLY. SOME SHOWERS
MAY GET NEAR APF AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
BEACH FORECAST...
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND A NORTHEASTERLY ATLANTIC SWELL WILL
ALLOW THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY. SURF HEIGHTS OFF THE PALM BEACHES SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS MORNING, FALLING BELOW HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM EST THIS MORNING. THE MIAMI-DADE AND
BROWARD BEACHES MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE RIP CURRENT RISK
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THE PALM BEACHES APPEAR TO HAVE
THE HIGH RISK LINGER THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEK. BEHIND THE
FRONT, THE GULF BEACHES COULD SEE AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK
DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY THE ANGRY ATLANTIC RETURNS TO BRING AN
ELEVATED RISK ALONG ALL THE ATLANTIC BEACHES MID TO LATE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WEST PALM BEACH 81 62 73 54 / 10 30 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 65 75 56 / 10 30 30 10
MIAMI 81 65 75 54 / 10 30 30 10
NAPLES 80 58 70 47 / 10 30 20 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ172-173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
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