659
FXUS62 KMFL 030652
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
252 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 220 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AS WELL AS THE INTERIOR TODAY.
- HIGH RAINFALL RATES COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTION WILL CREATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS TODAY.
- PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 103 AND 108
THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TODAY AND IT WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A MID LEVEL LOW
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY,
OR PERHAPS DRIFT A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT TUESDAY
AND WILL BE BASICALLY BLOCKED FROM PUSHING EASTWARD DURING THIS
TIME FRAME DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ONE DETAIL OF NOTE WITH THE LATEST GLOBAL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE IS THAT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CLOSED LOW
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. THIS MAY LIMIT THE SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME FRAME,
HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO NUDGE CLOSER TO THE REGION AS
TUESDAY PROGRESSES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS STALLED OUT WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WASH OUT TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL START
TO EXTEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WHILE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND SEA BREEZE DRIVEN
TODAY, THE OVERALL STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP THE PWATS ON THE
HIGHER END AS THEY WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2.1 AND 2.3 INCHES ACROSS
MOST AREAS TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND. WITH A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE TODAY, THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AS WELL AS
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE SEA BREEZE AND OTHER MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES REMAINING IN PLACE, THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE STRONGER STORMS TO HAVE RATHER ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. WITH SLOW STORM MOTION ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY,
THESE TWO FACTORS COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING TO OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY, THE PATTERN WILL SLOWLY START TO TRANSITION
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION AND
THE STEERING FLOW SLOWLY STARTS TO BECOME MORE SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE TIMING OF THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
IF THE SOUTHWESTWARD EXTEND OF MID LEVEL RIDGING IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IS ABLE TO SNEAK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATER IN THE DAY.
WHILE THE FLOW WILL STILL REMAIN LIGHT AND PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN
ON THE HIGHER END (2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES), CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
REMAIN SEA BREEZE DRIVEN. WHILE THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE IN FLUX
AND VERY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY STILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR INLAND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
ACTUALLY MAKES IT. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. THE WILL KEEP THE LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS MOST AREAS. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 103 AND 108 ACROSS MOST AREAS EACH DAY, HOWEVER, THEY WILL
MOST LIKELY NOT REMAIN AT THESE PEAK VALUES FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME AS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL START TO TAKE PLACE EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO OPEN UP
AND SLIDES FURTHER NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION MOVING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, THE STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
FURTHER OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WINDS TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL REMAINING IN PLACE,
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL REMAIN SEA BREEZE DRIVEN. HOWEVER, THE
HIGHEST FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DUE TO THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW SETTING UP.
CHANCES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED, HOWEVER, IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
WHERE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS TAKE PLACE, HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S AND PEAK HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 103 AND 108 DEGREES.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE LATEST GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE
SUITE CONTINUE TO SHOW A TUTT FEATURE PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY AND THEN APPROACHING THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS HIGH THOUGH AS ANY DEVIATION
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES FOR
SOUTH FLORIDA ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
ANY EVENT, EASTERLY WIND FLOW DOES REMAIN IN PLACE AND STRENGTHENS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE TUTT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING BETWEEN
103 AND 108.
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRY TO PUSH BACK
IN OVER THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE SEA BREEZE DRIVEN, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST DUE TO
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
IN GENERAL, LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SSE
ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AFTER 16Z. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KFLL AND KFXE, HOWEVER,
THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE EAST
COAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWER OR STORM. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE WSW THIS AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 92 79 91 79 / 60 30 70 30
WEST KENDALL 92 76 91 75 / 60 30 80 30
OPA-LOCKA 93 79 92 79 / 60 30 70 30
HOMESTEAD 93 78 92 78 / 50 30 70 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 79 90 79 / 60 40 70 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 92 79 91 79 / 60 40 70 30
PEMBROKE PINES 92 80 91 79 / 70 30 70 30
WEST PALM BEACH 92 77 91 77 / 60 40 70 30
BOCA RATON 91 78 90 78 / 60 40 70 30
NAPLES 91 79 91 77 / 30 20 50 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CWC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page