447
FXUS62 KMFL 071909
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
209 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
- FOG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS SW FLORIDA AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH A QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
THE 18Z MFL RAOB, ACARS DATA FROM AREA AIRPORTS, AND GOES-E
DERIVED SOUNDINGS DEPICT AN ATMOSPHERE THAT CONTINUES TO BE
DOMINATED BY DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WITH A CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WITHIN THE 600-780MB LAYER. A LAYER OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MOISTURE EXISTS JUST UNDERNEATH OF THE INVERSION AND AGAIN AT
ROUGHLY 3,000 FEET WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME CAPPED CUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE ATLANTIC AND GULF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA-BREEZES
WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE INLAND OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND THE
DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT, CONDITIONS COULD PROVE
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DENSE FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. HREF
PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITIES BELOW HALF A MILE REMAIN 50-70%
(MEDIUM RANGE) ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. WHILE HREF VISIBILITY PROBABILITIES
AND THE ACTUAL MATERIALIZATION OF DENSE FOG MAY NOT LINE UP
PERFECTLY, IT HINTS THAT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHES (PERHAPS EVEN AREAS) OF DENSE FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
LARGE SCALE RIDGING REMAINS SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S., WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
AND TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.
WITH THIS RINSE AND REPEAT PATTERN IN PLACE, FOG DEVELOPMENT BECOMES
THE FOCUS AGAIN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS AREA FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED IN THOSE AREAS. CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME POCKETS OF DENSE FOG FORMING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST METRO
THOUGH EITHER. THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE GIVES A 50-70% CHANCE FOR
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT THAT RESULTS
IN VISIBILITIES FALLING TO A HALF MILE OR LESS BETWEEN 2-9 AM AND
ABOUT 20-30% FOR THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE EAST COAST METRO.
THEREFORE, DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY AGAIN, WHICH
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A CALM AND PLEASANT
COUPLE OF DAYS IN THIS MID-TO-LATE WEEK PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
THE STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING PATTERN CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS,
WHICH IS PREVENTING TROUGHS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM PUSHING
SOUTHWARDS AND INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA REGION. AS A RESULT, QUIET
WEATHER WILL BE ONGOING AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY AND PERHAPS MOST
OF SUNDAY. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (EPS/GEFS AND AI
ENSEMBLES) CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE REGION IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE GEFS
SUITE OF MEMBERS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE, ALTHOUGH 50% OR
MORE OF ITS MEMBERS DON'T HAVE THE FRONT CROSSING INTO THE SOUTH
FLORIDA REGION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. OTHER
ENSEMBLES DON'T HAVE NEARLY AS MANY OF THEIR MEMBERS PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH UNTIL EARLY MONDAY OR MONDAY AFTERNOON, SO AS OF
NOW A SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING MONDAY MORNING IS IN THE
FORECAST.
REGARDLESS OF HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES, IT
DOES APPEAR TO BE ANOTHER PREDOMINANTLY DRY ONE AS IT WEAKENS IN
ITS APPROACH. CURRENT 90TH PERCENTILE QPF FOR THIS TIME FRAME
(SUN- MON) IS ONLY UP TO 0.25", SO NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. ONCE THE FRONT
ARRIVES, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 70S FOR A COUPLE
DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG BOTH COASTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS (OUTSIDE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS ALONG INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA-BREEZES). LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET WITH SOME FG/BR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHETHER
KAPF WILL SEE LOWER VIS (SUB-VFR) BETWEEN 09Z-15Z THURSDAY
MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MID-
WEEK AND LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESIDES
OVER THE AREA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED MOSTLY AT 2 FEET OR LESS ACROSS ALL
LOCAL WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 67 80 70 80 / 10 10 10 0
WEST KENDALL 61 82 65 81 / 10 10 10 0
OPA-LOCKA 65 82 68 81 / 10 10 10 0
HOMESTEAD 65 82 68 81 / 10 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 65 80 69 79 / 10 10 10 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 65 80 70 79 / 10 10 10 0
PEMBROKE PINES 65 81 67 81 / 10 10 10 0
WEST PALM BEACH 64 81 68 81 / 10 10 10 0
BOCA RATON 65 81 69 81 / 10 10 10 0
NAPLES 60 82 65 82 / 0 10 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...HADI
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