144
FXUS62 KMFL 041140
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
640 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 638 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
- BRIEF PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS WINDS POSSIBLE FOR OFFSHORE PALM
BEACH WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA REGION NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA. WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL
PROVIDE A MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE (PWATS 1.2-1.4"). HOWEVER, ABUNDANTLY DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN PRESENT ABOVE THE 700MB LAYER AND THERE ALSO WILL BE SOME
DRIER AIR MIXED INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WELL.
COMBINE THIS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING IN A WEAKENING STATE
AND THE RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY SOME VERY WEAK ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED MAINLY FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE POPS ARE
AROUND 20%.
AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT IN THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY AND THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS, MID-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY
REBUILDS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW (SURFACE TO ~925MB LEVEL) SIMULTANEOUSLY
SHIFTS BACK TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THE EVENING HOURS. AS THIS
OCCURS, SOME SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE VIA COASTAL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS SUNDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST HOURS COULD STILL BE DRY, BUT OVERALL CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH MINIMAL RAINFALL IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS, BUT OVERALL MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE DRY
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION BOTH TODAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK. FLOW WILL SHIFT
BACK TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AS THIS PATTERN DEVELOPS AND MAY
RESULT IN A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING EACH DAY, BUT IN
GENERAL MOSTLY CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE THE CASE FOR THE LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL AS LONG TERM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO WEAKENING OF THE STRENGTHENING
RIDGE. LONG TERM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, WHICH INCLUDES GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ENSEMBLES (AIGEFS/AIFS) BOTH
SUGGEST THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN PERHAPS LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACH. HOWEVER, THIS IS TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE ANY DECENT LEVEL OF
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A
FEW COASTAL SHOWERS AT TIMES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY, EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MID 80S FOR
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS OVERALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MOST AREAS FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS COULD MATERIALIZE EARLY THIS MORNING
AS A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, AND PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE LINE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF CHANCES FOR
VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS ARE FOR KAPF. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM
THE NW TO NNE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
WINDS WILL SHIFT TODAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO MODERATE
SPEEDS MAINLY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. THESE WINDS MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY HAZARDOUS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD, WINDS DECREASE AND SHIFT TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE ATLANTIC
TODAY AND EARLY THIS WEEK. GULF SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN 2 FEET OR
LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 64 78 66 / 20 20 0 10
WEST KENDALL 80 58 80 60 / 20 20 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 80 63 80 64 / 20 20 10 10
HOMESTEAD 81 62 79 63 / 20 20 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 64 78 66 / 20 20 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 65 78 66 / 20 20 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 79 62 80 64 / 20 20 10 10
WEST PALM BEACH 78 64 79 65 / 10 20 0 10
BOCA RATON 79 64 80 66 / 20 10 10 10
NAPLES 79 60 80 61 / 10 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...ATV
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