034
FXUS62 KMFL 141709
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
109 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 102 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUS MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH A FEW EXTENDING TOWARDS THE
COASTS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
ACROSS SOUTH FL EACH DAY, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE
HEATRISK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO GET GOING TODAY WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA AS SHOWN ON RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS.
CUMULUS BUILDUP IS BEING SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SO EXPECT
CONVECTION TO INITIATE OVER THE COMING HOURS, WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
BEING OVER INTERIOR AND SW FL, HOWEVER THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF THE
EAST COAST METRO MAY SEE SOME STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
BEFORE THE SEA-BREEZE PUSHES FURTHER INLAND. OVERALL THE FORECAST
TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH LITTLE CHANGES MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE PENINSULA TO BEGIN THE
WEEK, KEEPING ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 500 MB HEIGHTS AND HOT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THE MAIN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
LOCATED RIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, WITH H5
HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO A NEAR RECORD 597 TO 600 DAM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. FORTUNATELY FOR US IN SOUTH FLORIDA, H5 HEIGHTS WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 592 TO 593 DAM, ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
LIKELY ACROSS ALL URBAN AREAS, AFFECTING SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS
WITHOUT PROPER COOLING AND HYDRATION. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH ONLY ABOUT A 30% CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING HEAT INDICES GREATER THAN 105 F.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. COASTAL SEA BREEZES WILL THEN BEGIN
CREEPING INLAND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT NIGHTTIME
COOLING, SO SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA. WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SATURATION TO OCCUR AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOW 70S.
HOWEVER, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL AND THERE IS VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 5 MILES. THE RECENT 00Z
MFL SOUNDING AND CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATES THAT
SOUTH FLORIDA STILL REMAINS UNDER A PRETTY MOIST AIRMASS, WITH
PWATS BETWEEN 2 AND 2.3 INCHES. AS A RESULT, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A SIGNAL FOR SOME INCREASED CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN APPROACHING
THE REGION ON MONDAY, BUT MOST OF IT SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN. NEVERTHELESS, RAP
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT SOME INCREASED MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS, WHICH MAY SLIGHTLY HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DON'T EXPECT MUCH OF A
DIFFERENCE IN STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
BUT POPS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER, BETWEEN 50% AND 60%. MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD FOCUS ALONG INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA, CLOSER TO THE GULF SEA
BREEZE. FREQUENT LIGHTING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. IF A STORM WERE TO GET
STRONG ENOUGH, SOME OF THIS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A
FEW 50 TO 60 MPH DOWNBURSTS WINDS, AS DCAPE WILL BE NEAR 1000
J/KG. BUT, CONFIDENCE FOR THIS WILL BE LOW, WITH THUNDERSTORM
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH BEING MORE LIKELY.
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR, WITH SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ONE NOTABLE
CHANGE THAT WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY IS THAT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL TIGHTEN DUE TO STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SLIGHTLY
BREEZIER EASTERLIES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, MOST STORM
ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS ALONG INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, CLOSER TO
THE GULF BREEZE. HREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT A FEW HOT SPOTS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF MAINLAND
MONROE, COLLIER, AND HENDRY COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
A STOUT RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A REX
BLOCK PATTERN WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ENHANCING OFFSHORE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ADVECTING SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH ENHANCED JET STREAM DYNAMICS
ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE, THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL CAUSE THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TO
EVENTUALLY BECOME CUT-OFF BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS IT ADVECTS
ACROSS FLORIDA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES, WITH A BREEZIER NE FLOW EXPECTED
VERSUS THE LIGHTER FLOW WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING LATELY. FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE VIA POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE
LOW BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY, AND WITH DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS
1.7-2.0+ INCHES EACH DAY) REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THEREFORE, POPS WILL BE 70-80+% DAILY FOR
THE MID-TO-LATE WEEK PERIOD. THE CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE A
COLD CORE LOW, WHICH COULD GET INTERESTING IN TERMS OF A SEVERE
THREAT AS THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN STEEPER LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER,
DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO SOME CAPPING AND
RESULT IN A MORE INHIBITIVE PROFILE FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS
WELL DUE TO ONGOING DEEP MOISTURE PRESENCE. AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS
INTO THE GULF LATER ON FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL FLIP TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AND LIKELY SHIFT THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AND CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL STILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
OVERALL, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS EXACT DETAILS BECOME MORE
CLEAR, QPF CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
ASSESSMENT OF ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL. OTHER THAN THAT, NO MAJOR
HAZARDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OTHER THAN THE USUAL FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND LOWER VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 70S ACROSS SW FLORIDA TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WESTERLY GULF BREEZE
AT APF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AND ERRATIC WINDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 3 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS ALL MARINE
AREAS, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS MAY BRING
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. THE WEATHER
PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AREAWIDE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS
TO CLIMB INTO 5 TO 8 FT RANGE OFF THE COAST OF PALM BEACH, AND 3
TO 4 FEET ELSEWHERE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH WINDS ALSO CLIMBING INTO
THE 20 TO 23 KT RANGE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE AREAWIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 90 80 89 / 10 50 50 80
WEST KENDALL 77 90 77 88 / 10 50 30 80
OPA-LOCKA 79 90 78 89 / 10 50 50 80
HOMESTEAD 78 90 78 90 / 10 50 50 80
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 89 79 88 / 20 50 70 80
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 90 80 89 / 20 60 70 80
PEMBROKE PINES 79 90 78 89 / 10 50 60 80
WEST PALM BEACH 78 91 78 90 / 20 60 60 80
BOCA RATON 79 90 80 88 / 20 60 70 80
NAPLES 76 92 76 91 / 30 80 20 80
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...CMF
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