570  
FXUS62 KMFL 232329  
AFDMFL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL  
729 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2018  
   
AVIATION
 
 
THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUITE TONIGHT ACROSS THE TAF SITES,  
BEFORE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURN TO THE EAST AND WEST COAST METRO  
AREAS ON MONDAY. THE EAST COAST COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO  
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z MONDAY AND BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z MONDAY FOR  
KAPF TAF SITE, BUT THE COVERAGE WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO PUT  
IN THE TAF SITES NOW. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR  
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.  
 

 
AVIATION...54/BNB  
 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 328 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE  
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION.  
 
A WEAK, UNORGANIZED LOW, WELL EAST OF MIAMI, IS FORECAST TO TRACK  
WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NHC ONLY GIVE THIS  
AREA A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF ORGANIZING OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.  
EITHER WAY, THE TRACK WOULD TAKE IT WELL NORTH OF THE CWA, AND MAY  
ACTUALLY BRING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FOR LATE MONDAY  
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THOSE DAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF  
COAST, AS EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE. THIS WOULD MAINLY BRING  
LOWER CHANCES FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE TWO DAYS. BOTH THE  
ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW 500MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -6C AND -6.5C  
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AT -5.5C TO -6C ON  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SOME GENERAL THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY THOSE TWO DAYS.  
 
BY WEDNESDAY, THE LOW IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST, FROM THE NORTH  
CAROLINA COAST, AND A 500MB HIGH BEGINS TO MIGRATE WESTWARD OVER  
THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, THE PRESSURE DOES SLOWLY INCREASE, BUT  
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA,  
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.  
LOOKING AT PWATS, THERE ARE WAVES OF DRY AIR AND WAVES OF MOISTURE  
THAT MIGRATE OVER THE CWA. THE ARE THE GFS SHOWS TO PERSISTENTLY  
SEE HIGHER PWATS, AROUND 2 INCHES, IN THE AFTERNOONS IS THE  
WESTERN LAKES REGION, MAINLY OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THIS  
WOULD GIVE THAT AREA THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EACH  
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A LOW END CHANCE OF OTHER AREAS  
SEEING CONVECTION AS WELL.  
 
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PERSISTENT EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS RUNNING  
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EACH DAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN  
THE 70S EACH DAY.  
 
MARINE...  
A WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT  
COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE WIND  
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEK,  
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RUNNING 2TO 4 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR  
MOST OF THE WEEK. THE HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE  
WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. FOR THE GULF WATER, WAVE HEIGHTS  
OF UP TO 2 FEET ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.  
 
THE SWELL COMING INTO THE PALM BEACH COAST IS FORECAST TO WANE  
OVER THE NEXT DAY, AND SUBSIDE TO AROUND 1 FOOT BY MONDAY NIGHT.  
THIS SHOULD HELP TO ALLOW THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO SUBSIDE FOR  
NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY AS WELL.  
 
AVIATION...  
FEW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KPBI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN KTMB  
MID/LATE AFTERNOON, WHERE ATLANTIC BREEZE IS STILL LOCATED IN THE  
VICINITY. OTHERWISE, EAST COAST SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY  
THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE. FOR NAPLES, GULF BREEZE SHOULD MOVE IN  
BEFORE 20Z, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG IT AND IN  
THE VICINITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MONDAY MORNING MAY SEE SLIGHT  
MOISTURE SURGE ON THE EAST COAST, BRINGING RISK FOR A FEW MORE  
SHOWERS.  

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WEST PALM BEACH 78 89 77 89 / 20 30 20 30  
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 89 79 89 / 20 30 30 20  
MIAMI 78 89 78 89 / 20 30 20 20  
NAPLES 75 92 76 91 / 30 50 30 30  
 

 
   
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 
 
DISCUSSION...13  
MARINE...13  
AVIATION...54/BNB  
 
 
 
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab FL Page Main Text Page