032
FXUS62 KMFL 232248
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
648 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 639 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA WITH
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.
- ENHANCED FIRE BEHAVIOR IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 639 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
HREF, NBM, AND RRFS VISIBILITY PROBABILITIES DEPICT VARYING
DEGREES OF TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
THE DAYBREAK HOURS OF TUESDAY. HREF AND RRFS DEPICT A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF DENSE FOG ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA WITH A
60-80% CHANCE OF VISIBILITY BELOW 0.5 MILES WHEREAS THE NBM IS
MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE IN IT'S ASSESSMENT, DEPICTING A 20-30%
CHANCE. THE FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT BOTH SOLUTIONS AND DEPICTS
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DENSE FOG ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA
BETWEEN 06Z-13Z (2AM TO 9AM) TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.
THIS MAY RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILTIES ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES,
MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING ACROSS
INLAND ROUTES ON TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS OTHER INLAND LOCALES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE EXTREME
NE CONUS, DRAGGING A SFC FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS/S GEORGIA REGION.
MEANWHILE, DEEP RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY
OF WEAK FLOW AT THE SFC, WITH LAND WIND SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 10
MPH OR EVEN CALM AT TIMES. MODEL AND MFL 00Z SOUNDING PWATS REMAIN
IN THE 0.7-0.8" RANGE, ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE 1KM. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DRY/WARMING TREND IN PLACE TODAY.
NBM DEW POINTS ARE STILL RUNNING HIGHER THAN OBSERVED VALUES, ALONG
WITH MORNING LOW TEMPS OVER INTERIOR AREAS. PREVIOUS SHIFT WORKED ON
ADJUSTING TD/T/RH GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE OBSERVED LOWER VALUES,
ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS. SAME ADJUSTMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
APPLIED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IN ORDER TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
FOR TUESDAY, GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE PENINSULA, WHICH PUSHES THE RIDGE FURTHER TO OUR S/SE. THE
PARENT TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FURTHER INTO THE WEST
ATLANTIC AND LEAVE THE FRONT BEHIND AS A STATIONARY DECAYING FRONT
JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE REGION. LATEST SOLUTIONS KEEP THE BEST
DYNAMIC/THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA, AND NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER SOFLO.
THEREFORE, WILL KEEP THE DRY TREND IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING,
MODELS KEEP PUSHING AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR COASTAL
AREAS, AND INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR INTERIOR AND MANY WEST COAST
AREAS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
AS THE AXIS OF STOUT MID-LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY ADVECTS EASTWARD
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY, OUR
PREVAILING WEATHER REGIME WILL REMAIN DICTATED IN THE SURFACE 1KM AS
HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO THE REGION AHEAD AND ALONG
A FRONTOLYTIC BOUNDARY. HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (1.2 TO 1.4
INCHES) AND THE CONVERGENCE OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS MAY ACT TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND ASCENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION. 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, FORECAST TO BE IN THE -12C TO -
14C RANGE. HOWEVER, MESOSCALE MODELS DON'T APPEAR TO BE TOO EXCITED
ABOUT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AT THIS TIME, POTENTIALLY DUE TO A LACK
OF MODELED INSTABILITY BY THESE MODELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S (CLOSE TO 90) ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
WITH THE CONTINUED ADVECTION OF EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY, 500MB TEMPERATURES
LOCALLY WILL BEGIN TO WARM WITH PRESSURE HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO
INCREASE. WHILE THE PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL
RESULT IN A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SPATIAL
AND TEMPORAL SCOPE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. WHILE THE NBM DOES NOT SHOW MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY SIMILAR EACH AFTERNOON WITH A MAXIMA OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE EXPANSIVE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY AS THE AXIS OF RIDGING
GRADUALLY SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND NEARBY
GULF WATERS. 500MB FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRY AIR ALOFT INTO
THE REGION. A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE TO
FACILITATE THE ADVECTION OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST BY DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TO ARRIVE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT (ARRIVING FROM THE NNE/NE) WHICH WILL SWING WINDS TO AN
ONSHORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AHEAD, ALONG, AND IN THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN LOW TOPPED SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH
COULD BRING SOME POSSIBILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST
COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM THE
THREAT OF HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME, FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE MAY
RESULT IN MESOSCALE COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH
COULD RESULT IN HIGHER LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS. WHILE MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MAY VERTICALLY CAP CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND, RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RE-EVALUATED WITH ADDITIONAL UPDATES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF BR/FG ACROSS
INLAND AREAS AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA BETWEEN 06-13Z. VFR AND DRY
AT ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KAPF BETWEEN 11-13Z ON
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE FOR REDUCED VIS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE FORECAST FOR KAPF AT THIS TIME. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS ALONG
BOTH COASTS BY 16-18Z ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH PREVAILING BENIGN BOATING
CONDITIONS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, FAVORING
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS, THEN BACK TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO END THE WORK WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS STILL EXPECTED FOR ALL PALM BEACH
AND BROWARD BEACHES TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
LOW RH VALUES AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND TUESDAY
WITH MIN RH OVER INLAND AREAS IN THE 28-32 PERCENT RANGE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED FIRE WX RISK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A
REMINDER THAT GLADES, HENDRY, AND COLLIER COUNTIES REMAIN UNDER
COUNTY- ENACTED BURN BANS. PLEASE CONTACT YOUR SPECIFIC COUNTY
GOVERNMENT FOR DETAILS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 61 84 65 82 / 0 0 0 10
WEST KENDALL 56 85 59 84 / 0 0 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 60 84 64 83 / 0 0 0 10
HOMESTEAD 60 83 63 82 / 0 0 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 61 81 64 81 / 0 0 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 62 82 65 81 / 0 0 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 61 85 65 84 / 0 0 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 61 84 65 82 / 0 0 10 20
BOCA RATON 61 82 65 81 / 0 0 0 20
NAPLES 60 81 63 82 / 0 0 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...HADI
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