616
FXUS62 KMFL 261105
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
705 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 704 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
- WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.
- THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AND PUSH INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
LOCAL WATERS TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS AND SEAS BUILD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD
OVER THE GULF AND TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND FRIDAY. AT
THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO
THE GULF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE TO TAKE PLACE AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS SET UP WILL ALLOW
FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS, THE SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND WITH
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DOMINATING DUE TO THE EASTERLY SYNOPTIC
WIND FLOW. THIS COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO
SPARK OFF A FEW SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE THE SEA BREEZES
COLLIDE. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE BRINGING DRY AIR
TO THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE EAST COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT, THERE WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE FOG
COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA REDUCING VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER OF A MILE OR
LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS AN
AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC LATER ON SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION, IT WILL
FLATTEN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE A BIT ON SATURDAY BEFORE IT
SLOWLY TRIES TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION AS SUNDAY PROGRESSES.
AT THE SURFACE, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA AS SUNDAY PROGRESSES. WHILE THE EXACT DETAILS STILL NEED
TO BE WORKED OUT, THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE IS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION TO
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO BE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE
THIS SET UP DOES NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY REMAINING UP TO
THE NORTHEAST, AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEGINNING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND TRAINING OF SHOWERS DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL
CONVERGENCE SITUATION SETTING UP. BEHIND THE FRONT, A VERY STRONG
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL
CREATE A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
HEADING INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A STRONG EAST NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE THE EXACT DETAILS STILL REMAIN
UNCERTAIN, THE INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS TO SET UP OVER A PORTION OF THE EAST
COAST WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.
CURRENTLY, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
COULD SET UP BUT THE POTENTIAL DOES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SOME AREAS
TO SEE AN INCH OR MORE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE EAST COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AS THEY WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
HEADING INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, MID LEVEL
RIDGING BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. AT THE SURFACE, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO MOVE OFF
TO THE SOUTH AS IT STILL REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY BEFORE
FINALLY PUSHING INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS HEADING
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR
TRIES TO PUSH BACK INTO THE REGION HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER
TIGHT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
THE BREEZY AND GUSTY EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A MODERATING TREND DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, AND WILL BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS OR JUST ABOVE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 704 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING EASTERLY AROUND 10
KTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A WESTERLY GULF BREEZE AT APF. SCATTERED
LATE DAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE LAKE REGION AND SW FL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
IN GENERAL, A GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE
WINDS MAY BECOME OCCASIONALLY FRESH AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, WINDS MAY SHIFT AND BECOME
NORTHWEST EACH AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. A NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC DROP DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATER TODAY INTO
FRIDAY. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EAST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PALM BEACHES
TODAY AS A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 70 82 68 / 0 0 20 0
WEST KENDALL 84 65 84 64 / 0 10 20 0
OPA-LOCKA 83 68 84 67 / 0 0 20 0
HOMESTEAD 82 69 83 67 / 0 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 69 81 68 / 0 10 20 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 70 81 68 / 0 10 20 0
PEMBROKE PINES 84 69 84 68 / 0 0 20 0
WEST PALM BEACH 80 68 82 67 / 0 0 20 0
BOCA RATON 80 69 82 67 / 0 10 20 0
NAPLES 84 65 85 66 / 10 10 20 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CMF
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