851
FXUS62 KMFL 141105
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
705 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 704 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND, AND COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND STRONG TO SEVERE IMPACTS EACH AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, A FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY-TUESDAY COULD BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS WEEKEND AS A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE AREA.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ALREADY POOLED ALONG THIS FRONT ON FRIDAY, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. SOUNDING PWATS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE HOVERING
IN THE 1.3-1.5 INCH RANGE, WELL ABOVE THE 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WITHIN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT AND THE WARM, MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL
SUPPORT ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION, WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND
700-500MB LAPSE RATES > 6 C/KM. HOWEVER, MEAGER SUPPORT ALOFT WILL
MEAN IMPACTS TODAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE IN NATURE,
AND THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGH-RES MODELS SUPPORT ACTIVITY STARTING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AS EARLY AS 11 AM, BUT MOST LIKELY BEING
MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 3-8 PM. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20-30%) THAT
SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL,
WITH A 1 IN 10 CHANCE OF SOME SPOTS GETTING 2-4 INCHES OVER THE 24
HOUR PERIOD. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING, SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL (PEA-SIZED) COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORM
WHERE RESIDENCE TIME WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE IS MAXIMIZED.
ON SUNDAY, A COUPLE OF CHANGES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HELP
SUPPORT A GREATER SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALOFT, A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND DESCEND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH STARTS TO SLIDE OVER THE
PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STOUT LOW PRESSURE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA, WITH AN ATTENDANT STRONG COLD FRONT
OVERSPREADING THE PLAINS. LOCALLY, THE STATIONARY, NOW WEAKENING
FRONT, GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE WASHING OUT.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE, WITH GREATER MOISTENING ALONG
THE ENTIRE LAYER AND PWAT VALUES CONTINUING TO EXCEED THE HIGHEST
PERCENTILES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ALL TOGETHER, THIS SETUP WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION, STARTING MID-MORNING AND CONTINUING
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THIS TIME FRAME, THE
GREATEST THREAT WILL REMAIN HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED FLOODING, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN WITHIN THAT 24 HOUR PERIOD. FURTHERMORE, FORCING FROM
THE SHORTWAVE AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL STORM GROWTH LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE HREF MEMBERS SHOW A VERY MARGINAL
THREAT FOR HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN SIZE SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MEAGER SHEAR WILL HELP LIMIT THE CHANCE
FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY, AT LEAST AS FAR AS THE CURRENT FORECAST
GOES.
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SYNOPTIC COMPLEX (CONSISTING OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND STOUT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT) WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH THE SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND OVER THE
CANADIAN EXPANSE ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND ALONG THE FL PENINSULA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON MONDAY, WITH THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. A COOLER
AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 70S, AND POTENTIALLY
DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND 50S OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL ALSO SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MID WEEK.
THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL COOL ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
WILL NOT FULLY ESCAPE AS PWATS REMAIN ELEVATED AND THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN BECOMES NEARLY SATURATED. THUS, MUGGY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AND PERHAPS INTO LATE WEEK BUT IT WILL NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS
ACTIVE AND CHAOTIC AS THIS WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 704 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SE AROUND 10
KTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A WESTERLY GULF BREEZE DEVELOPING AT APF.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND ERRATIC WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
OUT OVER THE AREA AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES CROSS THE REGION. WINDS COULD SURGE BEHIND
THAT FRONT, USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF DETERIORATING MARINE
CONDITIONS.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 FT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY
BEACHES TODAY. THIS RISK COULD COULD INCREASE FOR THE ENTIRE EAST
COAST ON SUNDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 83 71 82 73 / 60 50 60 30
WEST KENDALL 85 67 84 69 / 60 40 60 30
OPA-LOCKA 85 71 83 72 / 60 50 60 30
HOMESTEAD 85 71 83 73 / 60 40 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 70 80 73 / 60 50 60 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 82 71 80 73 / 60 50 60 40
PEMBROKE PINES 85 71 83 73 / 60 50 60 40
WEST PALM BEACH 82 69 83 72 / 60 50 60 40
BOCA RATON 82 70 82 73 / 60 50 60 40
NAPLES 84 69 85 71 / 40 40 60 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-066-
067-070-071.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...CMF
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