101
FXUS62 KMFL 220632
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
132 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 129 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
- ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
- SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH TUESDAY. HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
MESOANALYSIS THIS MORNING DEPICTS THE ALIGNMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC
FEATURES THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BLUSTERY PERIOD ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG
AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WITH FAR REACHING AND SPRAWLING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM
CANADA ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS OF MSLP (PRESSURE HEIGHTS) CORROBORATE EARLIER CLUSTER
ANALYSIS THAT INDICATED THAT PRESSURE HEIGHTS (1030-1034 MB) OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY WILL EXCEED THE 96-98TH
PERCENTILE COMPARED TO HISTORICAL OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A COMMON POINT OF DISCUSSION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS, THE
STRENGTH OF THIS EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IMPORTANT
TO US DOWN HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ANOMALOUS STRONG SURFACE
RIDGING COMBINED WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE CARRIBEAN SEA WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, PEAKING IN INTENSITY LATE TODAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE
BAY WATERS WILL REMAIN ON THE STRONGER SIDE, SURFACE FRICTION WILL
REDUCE WIND SPEEDS FURTHER INLAND ALONG THE EAST COAST. THAT
BEING SAID, THE HREF 75TH PERCENTILE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
NEARING 30 MPH. WHILE THIS REMAINS BELOW OUR LOCAL WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA, IT MAY NOT HURT TO SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR HOLIDAY
DECORATIONS.
OUTSIDE OF THE WIND, ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE FORECAST TODAY WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY BRISKLY MOVING
ALONG IN THE NORTHEASTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THIS
TYPE OF WEATHER REGIME WITH BRISK ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE INSTABILITY-
LADDER WATERS OF THE GULFSTREAM OFTEN SUPPORTS LOW-END CHANCES FOR
QUICK MOVING SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS DRY AND RECENT
06Z ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM AREA AIRPORT DEPICT A STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 1KM TO PRODUCE LOW-TOPPED LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO TODAY. BASED
ON THE CAMS (CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS) AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS, BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES TO THE 10-20% RANGE FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. GREATER VERTICAL MIXING DUE TO
HIGHER SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TODAY WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST TO LOW 80S
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
WITH THE GRADUAL SHIFT OF THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS, SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY WHILE GRADUALLY LESSENING IN
INTENSITY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS THANKS TO THE VERTICAL MIXING PROVIDED BY
SURFACE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. BY TUESDAY, THE AXIS
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS THE
REGION, KEEPING ANY MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF
LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT SOUTHWARD
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK, ELONGATING AND WANING IN
INTENSITY WHILE BEING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL
MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER
THAN WHAT IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY, MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS
AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT ROTATING INTO THE REGION AT TIMES.
SYNOPTICALLY, THINGS WILL REMAIN QUICK ALOFT OF SOUTH FLORIDA AS
DISTANT TROUGHS AND THE JET STREAM REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.
THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN THE SAME WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND TEMPS IN THE 80S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS NOT BUDGED MUCH OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS,
CHRISTMAS EVE AS WELL AS CHRISTMAS DAY HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WISE WITH AN EASTERLY BREEZE.
CURRENT WAKE-UP FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS MORNING RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREA TO
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE GULF COAST METRO AREA AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
NE/ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY, BECOMING GUSTY
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS
WILL BE REALIZED AT TERMINALS CLOSEST TO THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST
DATA, BUMPED UP FORECAST WIND VALUES IN THE TAF FORECAST ALONG THE
EAST COAST AFTER 18Z. ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
STRENGTHENING WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS.
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS WAVE HEIGHTS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULFSTREAM WATERS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH 7PM ON TUESDAY AS WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE GULF STREAM WILL
BUILD TO 7 TO 10+ FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS BISCAYNE BAY LATER THIS
MORNING, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAY
WATERS UNTIL 7AM ON TUESDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST AT ALL EAST COAST BEACHES
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE
THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS, ELEVATED SURF CONDITONS MAY ALSO PROVE TO BE
HAZARDOUS TO INEXPERIENCED SWIMMERS. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFE GUARD
AND WHEN IN DOUBT, DON'T VENTURE OUT!
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 71 79 68 / 20 20 20 0
WEST KENDALL 81 67 81 62 / 10 20 20 0
OPA-LOCKA 80 69 80 66 / 20 20 20 0
HOMESTEAD 80 70 80 67 / 10 10 20 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 70 78 68 / 20 20 20 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 70 78 67 / 20 20 20 0
PEMBROKE PINES 80 69 80 65 / 20 20 20 0
WEST PALM BEACH 79 69 79 66 / 10 20 20 0
BOCA RATON 79 70 79 67 / 20 20 20 0
NAPLES 83 64 83 62 / 0 0 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...HADI
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