204
FXUS62 KMFL 280517
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1217 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER...
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT, BEFORE A GRADUAL
WARMUP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
COLD FRONT PUSHED AWAY FROM THE PENINSULA LAST NIGHT AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN US IS ALLOWING MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY. DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING WILL FALL
INTO THE 20S/30S AROUND THE LAKE AND SW FL AND INTO THE 40S/50S OVER
SE FL. NOT ONLY WILL TEMPS BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY, BUT A BRISK
NORTHERLY WIND WILL BE IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH
EXPECTED. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN US STARTS TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST, OUR WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO
START RECOVERING AND THEY SHOULD BE IN THE 40S/50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S AROUND THE LAKE TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FL.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST,
WHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED INLAND AND OVER SW FL. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 50 WEST OF THE LAKE, TO LOW AND MID 60S
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RACING EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OUR WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL AND WILL ALSO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
ESPECIALLY OVER SE FL WHERE SOME SPOTTY LATE DAY SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AROUND
THE LAKE AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO, TO AROUND 80 OVER SW FL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
BY SUNDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS TO OUR SOUTH WILL START TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS FL AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR COASTAL SHOWERS ON SUNDAY, BUT AS THE FRONT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN
FL EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY WILL DIMINISH. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE ONLY
NOTICEABLE IMPACT OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S/70S. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S/60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
SCT TO BKN MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. NNW WINDS 10-15 KTS BECOMING
NNE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO, WITH NNE WINDS
PREVAILING AT APF FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION LAST EVENING,
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS WINDS AND
SEAS FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY, AND CONTINUING FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS 20-25 KTS
TODAY WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 4-8 FT IN THE GULF
TODAY, AND 6-10 FT IN THE ATLANTIC. LAKE AND BAY WATERS WILL BE
ROUGH.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
INCREASING SWELL IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. THE RISK
WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS.
WITH THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND, WAVES OF 6-8
FT IN THE SURF ZONE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY. MIN RH VALUES OVER
INLAND SW FL WILL BE 30-40 PERCENT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL
RESULT IN A LIMITED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 74 66 78 72 / 0 0 10 20
WEST KENDALL 75 61 79 69 / 0 0 10 20
OPA-LOCKA 75 64 79 70 / 0 0 10 20
HOMESTEAD 75 65 78 72 / 0 0 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 66 77 70 / 0 0 10 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 74 66 77 70 / 0 0 10 20
PEMBROKE PINES 76 64 80 70 / 0 0 10 20
WEST PALM BEACH 73 64 77 69 / 0 0 0 10
BOCA RATON 75 65 79 69 / 0 0 10 20
NAPLES 72 55 81 65 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CMF
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