056
FXUS62 KMFL 151100
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
700 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 659 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING AND
STRONG TO SEVERE IMPACTS EACH AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, A FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY-TUESDAY COULD BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
ALOFT, A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL EXIT THE ROCKIES AND SLIDE OVER THE
PLAINS TODAY, WHILE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL DRIFT OVER THE GULF
WATERS TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE, AND 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE -12 TO
-14 C RANGE, WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEAR THE
SURFACE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE PLAINS, WHILE THE PREVIOUSLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER OUR AREA
LIFTS NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DEPARTURE, WITH PWATS NEARING RECORD
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (1.4-1.7 INCHES FORECAST).
THE PRESENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE WARM, MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE
WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION,
STARTING MID-MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND CONTINUING
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE DAY, OVER THE INTERIOR AND SPREADING
BACK OVER THE EAST COAST METRO. DURING THIS TIME FRAME, THE
GREATEST THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED FLOODING, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN WITHIN THAT 24 HOUR PERIOD, AND A 1 IN 10 CHANCE OF 4-6
INCHES IN SOME ISOLATED SPOTS.
FURTHERMORE, FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING
ALOFT WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORM GROWTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENHANCED INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION, WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND 700- 500MB
LAPSE RATES > 6 C/KM. SHEAR PROFILES LOOK TO REMAIN MODEST (BULK
SHEAR FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 25-30 KTS AT BEST), BUT ALL TOGETHER,
THIS PARAMETER SPACE COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL (AROUND THE SIZE OF A
QUARTER, OR 1 INCH), AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING DOWNBURSTS. WITH
LOWER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A LOWER FREEZING LEVEL (~13 KFT), ANY
STORM THAT GROWS TALLER THAN 20 KFT COULD PRODUCE HAIL. WITH ALL
OF THIS IN MIND, WPC HAS PLACED THE EAST COAST METRO UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF FLOODING DUE TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL, AND SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE REGION UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
GUIDANCE SHOWS CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING AFTER 8PM WHEN THE
FOCUS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHIFTS SOUTHWARDS OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
COULD BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, BUT THE NEXT PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL COME LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S AS INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE HELPS MODERATE CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST, AND MID 60S OVER THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SYNOPTIC COMPLEX (CONSISTING OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND STOUT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT) WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT, PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. A
COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO THE LOW 70S DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND
DOWN TO THE 40S AND 50S. WINDS WILL ALSO SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MID WEEK.
MODELS SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS, HELPING FOCUS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
OUR NEAR VICINITY TO PROMOTE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER OUR LOCAL
WATERS AND PERHAPS EVEN OVER THE EAST COAST EACH AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, GUIDANCE IS ALSO SHOWING A POTENTIAL CUT-OFF LOW BREAK
OFF FROM WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT AND DRIFTING OVER OUR AREA LATE THIS
WEEK, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OR AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS COULD HELP INCREASE CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST COAST METRO AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
SE WINDS INCREASE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TO 10-15 KTS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND ERRATIC WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL APPROACH
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT MID-WEEK, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 3 FEET ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS, AND BETWEEN 3-5 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH POTENTIALLY ROUGH SEAS AND
STRONG WINDS NEAR ANY STORMS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTY BEACHES WILL BE AT HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AS NORTHERLY SWELL PERSISTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 73 85 65 / 60 40 50 60
WEST KENDALL 83 69 87 63 / 60 40 50 60
OPA-LOCKA 83 72 87 66 / 60 40 50 60
HOMESTEAD 83 73 86 67 / 60 40 40 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 73 84 63 / 60 40 60 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 73 84 63 / 60 40 60 60
PEMBROKE PINES 83 73 87 66 / 60 40 50 60
WEST PALM BEACH 82 72 86 60 / 60 50 70 50
BOCA RATON 80 72 84 61 / 60 40 60 50
NAPLES 84 71 84 59 / 70 30 60 60
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...CMF
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