240
FXUS62 KMFL 242242
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
642 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 638 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
- MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SW FLORIDA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
- HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S ACROSS
MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
- ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL REMAIN UNDER A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
- THE ARRIVAL OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE GUSTY EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW IN PLACE, SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE LATEST KMFL 18Z SOUNDING SHOWS PWAT VALUES OF 1.82
INCHES, HOWEVER, THERE IS A NOTICEABLE POCKET OF DRIER AIR
BETWEEN 400MB AND 850MB. THIS DRIER AIR POCKET WILL HELP TO LIMIT
THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN
800 TO 1000 J/KG, THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS A
PORTION OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS, WHERE ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST AS ENSEMBLES AND HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP SFC
RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. ALSO, A MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE
WILL ALSO BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE REGION AND HELPS IN LIMITING
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING ESE WINDS
PREVAILING ACROSS SOFLO AND PUSHING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
FURTHER INLAND AND INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
WEAKER AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN REMAIN PINNED
DOWN AGAINST THE WEST COAST, WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS/WX COVERAGE
WILL RESIDE. HOWEVER, ONE KEY CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS
IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER INTRUSION OF MID LVL DRIER AIR, WHICH ALONG
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING ALOFT, SHOULD BRING MAX POPS/WX
DOWN A BIT. NBM HAS NOW 40-50% ALONG THE WEST COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, WHILE MOST ATLANTIC METRO AREAS SEEMS TO REMAIN IN THE
15-25% RANGE. THESE VALUES LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS. IN GENERAL, EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FAVORING INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
AREAS, WITH MAIN HAZARDS BEING PERIODS OF LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. EVEN DRIER AIR SEEMS TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA ON MONDAY, KNOCKING DOWN POPS INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT FOR
THE WEST COAST, AND KEEPING THE ATLANTIC COAST AREAS IN THE TEENS.
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S
(ALONG THE EAST COAST) AND UP INTO THE MID 90S (ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FL), WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING IN THE MID-UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
EAST COAST, AND UP INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THE LONG TERM REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH AN
UPPER LVL RIDGE DOMINATING THE REGION, AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLANTIC AND MUCH OF FLORIDA TO
START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON TUESDAY. GENERALLY EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL, WITH A PATTERN OF EARLY AFTERNOON
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
ATLANTIC METRO AREAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST AREAS AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
STARTING WEDNESDAY, MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW FAIR CONSENSUS IN BRINGING
A SURGE IN MOISTURE AS THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC PUSHES SOUTHWARD
AND ENHANCES MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS SOFLO. THIS IS DUE TO FLOW
VEERING TO A MORE S FLOW, TAPPING INTO THE POOL OF DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SE GULF WATERS. MODEL
PWATS REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, AROUND 1.6
INCHES, AND POPS COVERAGE BECOMING WIDESPREAD FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MAX POPS/WX JUMP TO 70-75% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTIVE
SCENARIO AS MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN HOT WITH
UPPER UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, AND UP INTO THE MID 90S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS AND THE WEST COAST. THEN A MODEST RELIEF IS EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER COVERAGE
INCREASES, WITH HIGHS COOLING DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ALSO LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS AS WELL AS KAPF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ESE WINDS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
GUSTY ESE WINDS CONTINUE ON MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS.
THESE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS KAPF ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
MAINLY MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME
PERIODS OF AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, WHERE WINDS MAY BECOME WEST SOUTHWEST
EACH AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 78 89 78 89 / 20 10 20 10
WEST KENDALL 75 90 76 90 / 30 10 20 10
OPA-LOCKA 77 90 78 90 / 20 10 20 20
HOMESTEAD 78 89 79 90 / 30 10 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 87 80 88 / 20 10 20 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 87 79 87 / 20 10 20 20
PEMBROKE PINES 79 91 79 91 / 20 10 20 20
WEST PALM BEACH 79 88 80 88 / 10 10 20 20
BOCA RATON 80 87 80 88 / 20 10 20 20
NAPLES 76 92 77 91 / 20 20 10 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC
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