349
FXUS62 KMFL 010610
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
110 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 105 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025
- A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID WEEK.
- AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER INLAND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025
LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR
PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FL. GIVEN THE CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND PRECIP
YESTERDAY, THE INCREASE IN PROBS SEEMS REASONABLE. INCREASED THE
COVERAGE OF PATCHY FOG TO INCLUDE MUCH OF SOUTH FL OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE METRO, AND INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF
SW FL. WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS AND AREA WEB CAMS CLOSELY THIS
MORNING TO SEE IF ANY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FL
WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. LOCALLY, MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AGAIN
TODAY, WITH THE LATEST HREF SHOWING PWAT VALUES CONTINUING TO SLOWLY
INCREASE TODAY WITH VALUES OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
MOST OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH PRECIP FOR
TODAY, SO GOING WITH MORE OF A PERSISTENCE FORECAST TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE CHANCES WILL REMAIN
FOR THE ENTIRE EAST COAST METRO, THE BEST SIGNALS FOR PERSISTENT
COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOWERS WILL BE OVER PALM BEACH AND NORTHERN
BROWARD COUNTIES. QPF IS ANOTHER STRUGGLE TODAY, BUT WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE POCKETS OF 0.5-1 INCH AMOUNTS, WHILE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. HIGH TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.
AS THE COMPLEX SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE SE US LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SSE TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY SSW DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
COASTAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
WITH MILD LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S AROUND THE LAKE TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO.
WITH THE SSW FLOW IN PLACE ON TUESDAY, THE HUMIDITY REALLY RAMPS UP
WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S AND PWAT VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO APPROACH OUR AREA
FROM THE NW, PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SETTLING
SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE
LEFT BY THE TIME THE FRONT GETS HERE, SO RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER BRING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK-WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY NEXT WEEKEND, MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE THE SLIGHT
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND WILL
ALSO RETURN TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS AFTER
15Z, WITH A MID AFTERNOON WESTERLY GULF BREEZE AT APF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025
CAUTIONARY EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY
BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS
WINDS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN
THE GULF AND 2-4 FT IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. THE HIGH RISK WILL REMAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 83 73 84 69 / 20 10 20 10
WEST KENDALL 84 70 85 66 / 10 0 20 10
OPA-LOCKA 84 72 86 68 / 20 10 20 10
HOMESTEAD 83 72 84 68 / 10 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 72 84 68 / 20 10 20 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 82 72 85 69 / 30 10 20 10
PEMBROKE PINES 84 72 86 68 / 20 10 20 10
WEST PALM BEACH 82 72 86 67 / 30 20 30 10
BOCA RATON 83 72 86 67 / 30 20 30 10
NAPLES 85 69 82 67 / 10 10 20 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CMF
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