695
FXUS62 KMFL 220537
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
137 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 136 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER THIS EVENING.
CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS COULD BE LIKELY AGAIN ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 90S, AND HEAT
INDICES LINGER IN THE 103-106F RANGE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CONSISTENT FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
CONTINUING HEAT CONCERNS. CURRENTLY STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OFF OF THE
GULF SEA BREEZE THROUGHOUT WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA, AND
THESE STORMS AND DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY SUPPORTED WITH
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES >2000J/KG, AS WELL AS PERTURBATIONS IN
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ONE VARIABLE THAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARED
TO THE STORMS YESTERDAY IS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS SLIGHTLY LOWER,
WHERE VALUES ACROSS THE REGION ARE AROUND 1.8 INCHES. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY THESE STORMS,
WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED IN CAMS/HRRR OUTPUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NON-ZERO, WITH DCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1100 J/KG THROUGH THE REGION, AND WILL DEPEND IF A STORM
CAN MATURE VERTICALLY ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE LEVEL DOWNDRAFT.
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE REGION, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOW TO MID 90S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CLIMBING INTO
THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 100S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BIT WARMER ON MONDAY, WITH
A COUPLE DEGREES INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HEAT RISK WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH
PERSISTENT 100+ DEGREE HEAT INDEXES ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE
CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. A PLUME OF DRIER AIR DUE
SAHARAN DUST AND MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL PROMOTE DRIER CONDITIONS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND WILL LIKELY INDUCE SOME
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE REGION TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
CONCERNS ONGOING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH A WESTERLY GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. SOME CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA
OVER THE INTERIOR, WITH IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KAPF. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF TRANSITIONING TO WESTERLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, WINDS COULD VEER FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS BEFORE SETTLING BACK FROM
THE SOUTH ON MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EACH DAY WITH
LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED AT 1-2 FEET OR LESS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 92 79 92 79 / 20 10 30 10
WEST KENDALL 93 77 93 76 / 30 10 30 10
OPA-LOCKA 93 79 94 79 / 20 10 30 10
HOMESTEAD 93 80 93 79 / 20 10 20 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 92 80 92 80 / 20 10 30 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 92 79 91 79 / 20 10 40 10
PEMBROKE PINES 95 80 95 80 / 20 10 30 10
WEST PALM BEACH 92 79 92 79 / 30 10 40 10
BOCA RATON 91 80 91 79 / 20 10 40 10
NAPLES 93 79 93 80 / 30 20 20 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ZWINK
LONG TERM....ZWINK
AVIATION...ATV
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