033
FXUS62 KMFL 180507
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
107 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 102 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY FOR ALL
SOUTH FL WATERS.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY, WITH A SLOW MODERATING
TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
IT'S GOING TO BE A COOL AND CLOUDY COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
CONTROL OF THE EASTERN US, WITH SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PLAGUE SE FL, WHILE MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NW
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. PWAT VALUE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GLADES
COUNTY AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TODAY WILL BE STAGGERING, WITH 0.6-0.8
INCHES ACROSS GLADES COUNTY, AND AROUND 1.4 INCHES IN MIAMI-DADE.
QPF TOTALS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY MEAGER, WITH A TRACE TO AROUND A
QUARTER INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL.
WITH A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND REMAINING IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY, ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT MILDER RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S
OVER INTERIOR AND SW FL, TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO.
WHILE THE THREAT OF COASTAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ON THURSDAY, A BIT
LESS CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE WARMING, ALTHOUGH IT WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO, AND MID TO UPPER 70S OVER
INTERIOR AND SW FL.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY WHILE THE
LARGER SCALE TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. SOME
COASTAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING DRIER AIR AND LOWERING
RAINFALL CHANCES BELOW 10%, DESPITE A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP
INTO NORTHERN FL EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER WITHOUT AN UPPER LEVEL
PUSH, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN NORTHERN FL. WITH THE LOW LEVELS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY,
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF COASTAL SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND AND MODERATING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
NNW WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL BECOME NNE AFTER 14Z TODAY. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER SE FL. PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING. HAZARDOUS WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS MORNING IN THE GULF WATERS, REMAINING CAUTIONARY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY, AND THEN BECOMING HAZARDOUS AGAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC 5-9 FT, AND 3-6
FT IN THE GULF. OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
AN ELEVATED N/NE SWELL WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 71 64 74 62 / 50 40 10 20
WEST KENDALL 74 59 77 57 / 50 40 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 73 62 77 61 / 50 40 10 20
HOMESTEAD 75 64 77 61 / 60 50 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 64 73 63 / 50 40 10 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 70 64 74 62 / 50 30 10 20
PEMBROKE PINES 73 63 77 61 / 50 40 10 20
WEST PALM BEACH 70 62 74 62 / 40 20 10 20
BOCA RATON 71 63 75 62 / 50 30 10 20
NAPLES 73 57 79 58 / 10 10 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CMF
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