852
FXUS62 KMFL 141118
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
618 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER METRO SE FLORIDA.
- MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN DETERIORATING LATER TONIGHT WITH
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES STARTING
MONDAY EARLY IN THE MORNING. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE
IN EFFECT FOR PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
AN AREA-WIDE FIELD OF STRATIFORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS
WITH OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST NBM AND ENSEMBLES
KEEP THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS COVERING ALL OF SOFLO THROUGH AROUND NOON,
THEN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL FINALLY PUSH ALL THE LINGERING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THIS EVENING.
CONSENSUS(CONSALL) POP/QPF AND HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS KEEP THE UPPER
CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. 25TH PRCT REMAIN AROUND 0.1-0.2 INCHES, WITH 90TH PRCT
KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED 2-3 INCHES BEFORE NOON.
HOWEVER, BASED ON LATEST HREF PROBS, WPC HAS REMOVED THE
ATLANTIC METRO AREAS FROM THE MARGINAL RISK IN THEIR LATEST OUTLOOK.
BEHIND THE FROPA, REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW AND
BY THIS EVENING ANOTHER SHOT OF NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
COLDER/DRIER AIR ADVECTION ACROSS SOFLO, WITH WIND GUSTS REACHING
THE 25-30 MPH RANGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AT TIMES ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN WARM TODAY WITH LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
SOFLO, THEN A COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
GLOBAL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A FROPA FOR MUCH THE WORK
WEEK. POPS WILL REMAIN IN SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THEREFORE, EXPECT GENERALLY BENIGN AND PLEASANT WEATHER TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
70S. COLDEST MORNING SHOULD HAPPEN TUESDAY BEFORE SUNRISE, WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S AROUND GLADES AND NORTHERN HENDRY
COUNTIES. WARMING TREND THEN FOLLOWS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SCT TO BKN MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING NW 5-10 KTS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT WINDS INCREASE
TO 10-15 KTS OUT OF THE NNW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME NNE BY AROUND
06Z WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
LIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING NORTHERLY TODAY WHILE INCREASING
BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY
LATER THIS EVENING FOR WHICH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
WINDS OF 25-30KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH SEAS UP
TO 12 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES STARTING MONDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS COASTAL
WINDS BECOME BREEZY BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 81 65 74 64 / 70 20 20 10
WEST KENDALL 82 62 75 58 / 60 20 20 0
OPA-LOCKA 82 65 75 62 / 70 20 20 10
HOMESTEAD 82 65 76 63 / 60 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 65 73 64 / 70 30 20 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 65 72 63 / 60 30 20 0
PEMBROKE PINES 82 64 75 61 / 70 30 20 0
WEST PALM BEACH 81 65 71 62 / 60 30 10 0
BOCA RATON 82 65 74 63 / 60 30 20 0
NAPLES 80 59 76 57 / 40 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR FLZ168-172.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
FOR AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CMF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page