592
FXUS62 KMFL 161708
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1208 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1201 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.
- AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL TODAY WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO HIT 70.
- COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
CHILLY FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH MOST LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE ENE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MODERATE THE EAST COAST METRO, HOWEVER
LOW RH VALUES WILL REMAIN OVER SW FL TODAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S WEST OF THE LAKE, TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO.
REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, HOWEVER DID ADD IN SOME
FROST FOR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS GLADES AND HENDRY WHERE TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S BEHIND THIS WEEKENDS COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE COLD BLAST WILL KEEP LINGERING COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS N/NE
FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY THIS AFTERNOON,
ENSEMBLES AND GLOBAL SOLUTIONS SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
EXPANDING EASTWARD FROM THE GULF AREA THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND INTO THE W ATL. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER SHARP TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES, WITH THE PARENT LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE SE CONUS. THIS WILL SQUEEZE
THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL INTO THE AREA AND SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE ENE
FLOW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT EVEN SO, THE AIR MASS WON'T HAVE
ENOUGH TIME TO MODIFY SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL
STRUGGLING TO HIT 70.
ROBUST SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL RAIN CHANCES TODAY WITH A BROAD
DOME OF STABLE AIR REMAINING OVER THE STATE. THUS, NEAR-ZERO POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE EASTERLY
SHIFT IN WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING INCREASING DEW POINTS
TONIGHT, ENOUGH TO PUSH OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S
INLAND AND UP TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE COASTS.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH
RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND SFC WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OR EVEN
CALM AT TIMES. BUT TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S,
ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES OF SOME ISOLATED ATLANTIC COASTAL SHOWERS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SHOW A
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS, PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. UNLIKE THE
PREVIOUS FROPA, THIS EVENT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AS THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE.
IN GENERAL, EXPECT SIMILAR LOW CHANCES OF RAIN NEAR THE ATLANTIC
COAST AS IN SATURDAY. LOWS MAY DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S, WITH
MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA WITH PREVAILING
N/NE WINDS, BREEZY PERIODS AND NEAR ZERO CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS FINALLY BEGINS MODERATING ON
THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE REGION AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME ENE 5-10 KTS
AFTER 19Z THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A MID AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE AT APF.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER THE
GULF WATERS, AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE FROM THIS
EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY. HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS RETURN LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS OVER THE COLLIER BEACHES WILL BE IN
EFFECT UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING, THEN A MODERATE RISK WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR ALL THE BEACHES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE REST OF
TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
A VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS RESULTED IN DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES. THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 35 PERCENT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, AND REMAIN SO FOR SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED AS UPDATED MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA BECOMES
AVAILABLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 59 76 64 78 / 0 20 20 20
WEST KENDALL 54 77 61 80 / 0 20 20 20
OPA-LOCKA 58 77 64 80 / 0 20 20 20
HOMESTEAD 59 77 63 80 / 0 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 60 75 62 78 / 0 20 20 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 59 75 63 78 / 0 20 20 20
PEMBROKE PINES 57 76 63 79 / 0 20 20 20
WEST PALM BEACH 58 75 61 77 / 0 20 20 20
BOCA RATON 59 76 61 78 / 0 20 30 20
NAPLES 52 74 60 73 / 0 10 10 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ650-
651-670-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CMF
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