678
FXUS62 KMFL 230740
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2021
SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY OVERACHIEVED, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR
ALLEY AND ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. IN FACT, MANY LOCATIONS
RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY UP TO 7 TO 8
INCHES NEAR VIRGINIA KEY. THIS PERHAPS WAS A PRIMER FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
THIS WEEKEND.
FROM THE TOP-DOWN, ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
HELP KEEP THE UPPER LEVELS MOIST. ADDITIONALLY, LOW TO MID LEVEL
SHEAR/VORT AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND
SUNDAY. H5 IMPULSES WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SHOWER AND T'STORM
POTENTIAL AS THOSE WAVES MOVE OVER THE REGION. FURTHER, AS IF
THERE WASN'T ENOUGH TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION, MODELS ARE SHOWING A
MODEST SURFACE TROUGH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE REGION, WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO MOVE CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
ADDITIONAL HYDRO CONCERNS WILL BE PRESENT TODAY AND SUNDAY. IN
FACT, COLLABORATED WITH WPC REGARDING TODAY'S ERO, WHICH SHOULD BE
OUT LATER THIS MORNING. URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FELL YESTERDAY AND
PERHAPS NEW AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) MAY
FALL TODAY AND TOMORROW. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL REMAIN AROUND
2.0" WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS. WHAT ABOUT STORM POTENTIAL? INSTABILITY ON CAMS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS GLOBAL MODEL
RUNS, BUT STILL RATHER MODEST WITH ONLY ABOUT 1500-2000 J/KG OF
CAPE EXPECTED. THINK A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE MORE ROBUST/WIDER UPDRAFTS BOTH TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK ARE THE THREE DAYS WITH DECENT
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THUS FAR. OUTSIDE OF THOSE THREE
DAYS...WELL...VERY QUESTIONABLE AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. EARLY NEXT
WEEK, LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH SOUTH FL. BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH, INCREASED LEVELS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STICK AROUND, KEEPING
HIGH END POPS IN THE FORECAST (CAPPING AT 70% FOR NOW). THEN ONCE
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION, REDUCING POPS IN THE PROCESS. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND
INTENSITY OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HAVE RAISED POPS
FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF A FRONT IN
PROXIMITY TO SOUTH FL, BUT WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN 50-60% FOR
THE TIME BEING. WILL THIS COLD FRONT BE SOUTH FL'S FIRST REPUTABLE
FRONT OF THE SEASON OR IS IT WISHFUL THINKING FOR THE HALLOWEEN
WEEKEND?
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID-UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
AVIATION(06Z TAFS)
OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND T'STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
CYCLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM MID MORNING ONWARD. BRIEF
VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTION TIMING AND COVERAGE PRECLUDES PROBS AT THIS JUNCTURE.
SHORT FUSED TEMPOS WILL BE LIKELY ON SATURDAY. AGAIN SOME MVFR VIS
AND CIGS WILL BE REALIZED, BUT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE CYCLE.
MARINE
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, MARINE CONDITIONS
APPEAR RATHER FAVORABLE ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER, AGAIN THERE STILL COULD BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND
AROUND SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. ADDITIONALLY, STRONGER STORMS
MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH MAY LIMIT VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING. BY TUESDAY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
DECREASE WITH OVERALL FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK BEFORE CONDITIONS START TO DECLINE TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND.
BEACHES
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY. THE OVERALL RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE BROWARD
AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WATERS. IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR PALM
BEACH WATERS TO IMPROVE SO A MENTION OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR THOSE AREAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. ON SUNDAY A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT THREAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 86 76 86 75 / 60 50 80 40
WEST KENDALL 87 74 87 73 / 60 50 70 40
OPA-LOCKA 87 75 86 74 / 60 40 80 40
HOMESTEAD 85 74 84 73 / 60 50 70 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 76 84 75 / 50 50 80 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 85 76 85 75 / 50 40 80 40
PEMBROKE PINES 85 74 85 73 / 50 40 80 40
WEST PALM BEACH 85 75 86 74 / 40 40 70 40
BOCA RATON 85 76 85 75 / 50 40 80 40
NAPLES 88 74 87 74 / 30 30 70 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ172-173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...FRYE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FELL
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