838
FXUS62 KMFL 181714
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
114 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1259 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY, THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE GULF
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY, BRINGING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
- PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN LOWER VISIBILITIES.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
EXPECTING ONE MORE DAY OF RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANCE ACROSS SOFLO
TODAY, BUT WITH A TREND OF GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE. GUIDANCE
SHOW A STRONG U/L TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX STRENGTHENING OVER THE E
SEABOARD, WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MODIFYING THE MID LEVEL AIR MASS, WITH 00Z
MFL SOUNDING PWATS ALREADY SHOWING VALUES ABOVE 1 INCH.
IN THE MEANTIME, THE FL PENINSULA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS IN
THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE FROM THE E THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR A LOCALIZED SEA BREEZE OVER THE GULF COAST, WHICH MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFTING FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER SW FLORIDA TODAY.
POPS/WX WILL ALSO BE INCREASED A LITTLE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
MOISTURE PROFILE INCREASES, BUT KEEPING CHANCES IN THE 15-25% RANGE.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST POSSIBLE PERIODS OF FOG TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING (AROUND 20% CHANCE) FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR SOFLO, WHICH
IS NOW INCORPORATED INTO THIS UPDATE.
MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD HIT THE MID-UPPER 80S NEAR THE COASTS,
AND AROUND 90 ELSEWHERE. NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID
60S INLAND, AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT DROPPING
ALONG THE PENINSULA BETWEEN MONDAY-TUESDAY AND STALLING OUT OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
THE AREA STARTING MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN
INCH COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS COULD
COOL BACK DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGHS NEXT WEEK IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. LOWS EACH MIDNIGHT COULD DIP INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, AND DOWN TO THE 60S ALONG THE COASTS.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND BACK
HALF OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ON THE BACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, RIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS SHORTWAVE WOULD THEN DROP ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS AND REACH THE FL PENINSULA SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FL STRAITS AND
THIS ADDITIONAL FORCING MECHANISM IN PLACE, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF IN
TANDEM WITH THE SHORTWAVE, MOVING EAST OR SOUTH AND APPROACHING THE
PENINSULA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL ON
THURSDAY, BUT TONIGHT'S RUNS SHOW IT MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CUBA.
THIS SOLUTION COULD BRING HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE PERIOD (UP TO 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD).
WHILE STILL GENERALLY UNLIKELY (AND SUPPORTED ONLY BY A MINORITY OF
THE MODEL ENSEMBLES), THIS SOLUTION, AND THE ENTIRETY OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY
CHANGES OR INCREASING CONFIDENCE. THE NBM MOSTLY SUPPORTS A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR THE AREA. SO FOR NOW, WE'RE KEEPING LOW-END POPS AND
QPFS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AREA. MODERATE ESE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY, THEN BECOMING GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER 04Z. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ATLANTIC TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
A MODERATE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. LIGHTER WINDS WILL
SET UP OVER THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2-4 FT ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC AND REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF BREEZY, HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, WITH WINDS 20-25 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30
KTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS, AND SEAS BUILDING UP TO 12
FT ALONG THE GULF STREAM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 72 87 72 84 / 0 20 10 50
WEST KENDALL 69 89 68 86 / 10 20 10 40
OPA-LOCKA 72 88 72 85 / 0 20 10 50
HOMESTEAD 72 87 70 84 / 0 20 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 85 72 82 / 0 20 10 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 72 85 72 81 / 0 20 20 50
PEMBROKE PINES 74 90 73 86 / 0 20 10 50
WEST PALM BEACH 71 86 72 81 / 0 20 20 50
BOCA RATON 72 85 72 81 / 0 20 20 60
NAPLES 71 85 69 87 / 10 10 0 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...17
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