860
FXUS62 KMFL 011101
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
701 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 659 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
- DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL EAST COAST
BEACHES FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
- A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY BREEZE MAY BRING PERIODS OF
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE COMBINATION OF A DEPARTING MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
AND THE CONTINUED EXPANSION OF A LARGE SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN MUCH OF THE SAME; MAINLY DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER. ACARS PROFILES AND UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT THE SPATIAL
AND TEMPORAL EXTENT OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY, KEEPING ACTIVITY
ISOLATED AND LOW-TOPPED IN NATURE AS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR
REMAINS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VERTICAL COLUMN. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WITHIN THE
LOWEST 1KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL PRODUCE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
COURSE OF TODAY. RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE DEPICTED THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM WATERS QUICKLY
ADVECTING EAST TO WEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. THESE BRISK LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
GULFSTREAM WATERS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE
THE MIXING DOWN OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IN TANDEM WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST, SHOULD FOCUS ANY SPORADIC
DIURNAL ACTIVITY ACROSS INLAND AND WESTERN AREAS LATER IN THE DAY.
ALOFT, THE AXIS OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT FURTHER
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS & NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS, GRADUALLY
ELONGATING AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A
PLUME OF DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE (IN TANDEM WITH PERHAPS A VERY
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AS A VERY SLIGHT PERTURBATION IN THE SURFACE WIND
FIELD IS DEPICTED ON NUMERICAL GUIDANCE) IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION FROM THE EAST TONIGHT WHICH MAY RAISE SHOWER CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AS THE ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE MOISTURE PLUME (FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES) COINCIDES
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER 500MB VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE/CUT-OFF LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT NEAR OR JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THE COLDER VALUES ALOFT WILL ACT TO STEEPEN MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM AS 500MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO
-11C TO -13C WHICH WILL BE BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 25TH PERCENTILE FOR
THE DATE. RAP & HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DEPICT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH AN INVERTED V TYPE SETUP AS COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN PRESENT. WHILE MORNING ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO CONCENTRATE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, A NON-ZERO CONDITIONAL THREAT OF MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AS THE
EASTERLY BREEZE PUSHES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WESTWARD. A POTENTIAL
FAIL MODE FOR THE CONDITIONAL SETUP OF ONE OR TWO STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER PREVENTING ANY DEVELOPMENT OF TALLER
DISCRETE CORES.
A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA DUE TO
THE COOLING ASPECTS OF THE OCEAN BREEZE AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA PEAKING IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
INVERSE AS THE OCEAN BREEZE WILL KEEP WARM AND MUGGY CONDITONS ALONG
THE EAST COAST WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 70S WHEREAS INLAND AND WESTERN
LOCALES WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE WIDESPREAD 60S, EVEN
LOW 60S ACROSS COOL SPOTS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICT THE CONTINUATION OF A COLD
POOL ALOFT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE/CUT-OFF
LOW GRADUALLY SLIDES EASTWARD OVER (AMERICAN MODEL SOLUTION) OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION (EUROPEAN MODEL SOLUTION) INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AS THE PERSISTENT
MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZE CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AFTER THE MOISTURE
SURGE ON THURSDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE ADVECTION OF A DRIER
AIRMASS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A REDUCTION OF
RAIN CHANCES BOTH DAYS. THE INSTABILITY LADEN WATERS OF THE
GULFSTREAM WILL RESULT IN A MAXIMA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA EACH NIGHT BEFORE
DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOCUSES ACROSS INLAND AND WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER ALOFT, THE DRIER
AIR AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE 20-
30% RANGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE CUT-OFF LOW BEGINNING TO LIFT
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. 500MB FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO VEER OUT OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AS 500MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGIN TO REBOUND/INCREASE. INTERESTINGLY, THIS IS
WHERE OUR TWO MAJOR MODEL CAMPS BEGIN TO HAVE A NOTABLE
DISAGREEMENT AS THE EUROPEAN MODEL SHOWS AN SURFACE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH THE CUT-OFF LOW AND LIFTING
NORTHWARDS JUST TO THE EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WOULD ACT TO
ADVECT DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH VIA
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE. THE AMERICAN MODEL IS MUCH SLOWER
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH RESULTS IN DEEPER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE BEING ABLE TO ROTATE INTO THE REGION DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARDS
IN TANDEM WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF ANY SURFACE LOW AS THAT WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE DIRECTION OF
PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS.
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS
THE ADVECTION OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES IN TANDEM WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO FLORIDA. WHILE
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF A FRONTAL PASSAGE OR STALL WILL OCCUR, A
PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR
DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
EASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS TODAY, WITH AN AFTERNOON WESTERLY GULF
BREEZE AT APF. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
THROUGH MID DAY, THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SW FL LATE IN THE
DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A STRENGTHENING OF WINDS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH MAY PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS. SEAS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL MAINLY REMAIN IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WAVE HEIGHTS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
THE 2-3 FT RANGE ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF WATERS. ELEVATED WINDS AND
WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS STRONG ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST.
ALWAYS SWIM AT A GUARDED BEACH AND WHEN IN DOUBT, DON'T VENTURE
OUT!
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 71 81 73 / 20 20 40 20
WEST KENDALL 82 66 83 68 / 20 10 30 20
OPA-LOCKA 81 70 83 71 / 20 20 40 20
HOMESTEAD 81 71 82 72 / 20 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 70 80 72 / 20 20 40 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 70 80 72 / 20 20 40 20
PEMBROKE PINES 83 71 83 73 / 20 20 40 20
WEST PALM BEACH 80 69 80 71 / 20 20 40 20
BOCA RATON 79 70 80 72 / 20 20 40 20
NAPLES 85 66 85 69 / 10 10 40 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...CMF
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