749
FXUS62 KMFL 182319
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
619 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 616 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
- MINIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FL. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 12-9AM MONDAY.
- BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, RESULTING IN
HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 616 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED EARLY AS WIND GUSTS DECREASED
BELOW CRITERIA THRESHOLDS. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE LOW TO MID
60S QUICKLY DECREASING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE
REGION. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR COLLIER,
GLADES, HENDRY, AND INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTIES FROM MIDNIGHT TO
9AM ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN GULF WILL RAPIDLY SLIDE
EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE, THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING BEFORE PASSING THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST GLOBAL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST OFF TO THE NORTH AS IT PASSES
THROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO BE IN A WEAKENING STATE
AS IT PUSHES THROUGH WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
REMAINING FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, THE LATEST CAMS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE
SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF IT WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO ENHANCED
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE. WHILE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY
LOW OVER THE LAND AREAS, AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WHERE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL CLIMB UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FRAME. THE LATEST HREF CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH
PROBABILITIES (70 TO 90 PERCENT) OF MINIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BELOW 35 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS
WELL AS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES REMAINING ACROSS GLADES, HENDRY, AND INLAND COLLIER
COUNTIES. MINIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN GLADES AND HENDRY
COUNTIES COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MAKE IT INTO THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS AS MINIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SOMETHING THAT WE ARE STILL KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON AS WELL IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. NBM AND HREF PROBABILITIES STILL SHOW A LOW CHANCE
(20-30%) OF TEMPERATURES HITTING THE FREEZING MARK IN WESTERN
GLADES COUNTY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER (10-20%) IN WESTERN HENDRY COUNTY. IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TREND COLDER, A FREEZE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR GLADES AND HENDRY
COUNTY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A NORTH NORTHWEST WIND SLOWLY
BEGINS TO VEER LATER IN THE DAY TOWARDS THE NORTH NORTHEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THESE HIGHS WILL BE REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREA STRUGGLING TO REACH 70
ACROSS MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE WINDS VEER AND
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND THEN EAST
NORTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A SLOW MODERATING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES HEADING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
WHILE TUESDAY WILL START OUT RATHER CHILLY ACROSS MOST AREAS, IT
WILL NOT BE AS CHILLY AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE REST OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS, LOWS DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE. HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE BACK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE TUESDAY WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY DRY ACROSS MOST AREAS, SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST RISES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE SHOWS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING CLOSER TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
BEFORE POTENTIALLY STALLING OUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA OR JUST NEARBY
HEADING INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THE GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL
DIFFER IN REGARDS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT MAKES A PASS THROUGH
THE REGION OR STALLS OUT, THE GUIDANCE DOES REMAIN IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AREA WIDE.
IF THE FRONT WERE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION, SOME DRIER AIR MAY
FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER, IF IT
STALLS OUT, SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WINDS CONTINUE TO LESSEN ACROSS THE REGION BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF
A BREEZY NORTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER
TO A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AT ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT,
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BUILD AND RANGE BETWEEN
7 TO 9 FEET TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 8 FEET DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK AS WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF BEACHES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
INCREASES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS
THE PALM BEACHES TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 50 67 58 74 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 46 67 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 49 68 56 75 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 50 69 57 75 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 49 67 58 73 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 49 67 58 73 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 48 68 55 74 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 47 67 56 73 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 48 68 58 74 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 43 65 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY
FOR FLZ063-066-067-069-070.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ069.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...HADI
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