809
FXUS62 KMFL 172234
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
634 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 631 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING AS
BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
AS INLAND ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WANES IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
INCREASED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. FLORIDA WILL FIND
ITSELF IN THE MIDDLE OF TWO REGIONS OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING, ONE OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF AND ONE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE A
NON-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL SERVE
TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
FUNNEL IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARDS THE PENINSULA. AT THE
SURFACE, PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 1026 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH. THIS STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP THE GULF BREEZE PINNED FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND EVEN MORE SO ON MONDAY.
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE
GULFSTREAM AND FLORIDA BAY, MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR PERFORMED PRETTY WELL FOR SATURDAY'S ACTIVITY,
AND WITH A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SUNDAY, FEELING FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT THE SOLUTION DEPICTING 75% TO 80% POPS ACROSS THE
GULF COAST WILL PLAY OUT.
HOWEVER, ONE FACTOR THAT CONTINUES TO BE UNDER-MODELED BY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IS THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. PWATS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES FOR SUNDAY AND REMAIN AT THAT
LEVEL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR MONDAY. DUE TO NEARBY RIDGING ALOFT,
WOULD EXPECT SOME MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TO ONCE AGAIN SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM GROWTH FROM BECOMING STRONG. YET, INCREASING MIDRH
VALUES SHOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ONCE AGAIN, STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPS RATES AND
PLENTY OF CAPE (NEAR 3000 J/KG) WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN. UNLIKE SATURDAY, THERE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BIT BETTER
SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR STORMS, BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KTS, AND WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO -9 OR -10 C, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WITH STEERING FLOW ALOFT BEING RELATIVELY WEAK AND NEARLY OPPOSITE
TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN, SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SLOW
MOVING. THIS WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME HEAVIER LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS
OF 4 TO 5 INCHES. FOR THE MOST PART, HREF ENSEMBLE PMMS ARE
DEPICTING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EACH AFTERNOON FROM STORM ACTIVITY.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) IS EXPECTED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER RELATIVE HUMIDITY, HEAT
INDICES WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES AREA WIDE. SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WILL
SEE HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S, WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 90S. WITH STORM ACTIVITY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LOOKING TO
FAVOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S FOR PARTS OF COLLIER COUNTY. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE NWS PROTOTYPE PROBABILISTIC HEATRISK TOOL INDICATES LOW
CHANCES OF 20% TO 30% FOR OBSERVING MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT
RELATED IMPACTS FOR PARTS OF THE DADE AND BROWARD METROS THROUGH
MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DRAPE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WHILE EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS STAGNANT IN IT'S
POSITION. THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IN THIS MID-TO-LATE WEEK TIME
FRAME IS INCREASED JET STREAM DYNAMICS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE
RIDGE LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THE PRESENCE OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN POSITIVE VORTICITY IMPULSES ADVECTING NEAR OR ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AS WELL AS ENVELOPES OF DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE END RESULT ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN BECOMING
MORE UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY REGIME BEING ONGOING THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK.
OVERALL, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THIS NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
UNDER THE CONSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW REGIME, HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
TO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WITH CONSISTENT HIGH
PRESSURE, TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL FROM DAY
TO NIGHT AND RESULTS IN AT LEAST A MODERATE HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
EACH DAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COASTAL METRO AREAS. THIS LEVEL OF
HEATRISK IS AIMED AT THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY
THOSE WITHOUT COOLING OR HYDRATION. CHANCES INCREASE TO 30-50% FOR
MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO BE OBSERVED FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND, WHICH AFFECTS ANYONE WITHOUT COOLING OR HYDRATION AND ALSO
AFFECTS HEALTH SYSTEMS AND INDUSTRIES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
INLAND SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO WANE IN COVERAGE WHILE NEW
DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHRA HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA ONCE AGAIN. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS
WILL LESSEN AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAIN EASTERLY ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH SHRA COVERAGE FORECAST TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA BETWEEN 10-12Z MONDAY BEFORE
ACTIVITY PUSHES INLAND BY 17-19Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
EASTERLY BREEZES WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
ALONG THE ATLANTIC, WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS LIKELY. A WEAKER WESTERLY BREEZE WILL BE LIKELY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF EACH AFTERNOON, BUT THE PREDOMINANT WIND
REGIME SHIFTS EASTERLY OVER THE GULF AS WELL. THESE BREEZIER
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CREATE SOME SLIGHTLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS, BUT
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SUSTAINED WINDS LOOK TO PEAK NEAR 20 KTS ON MONDAY, WITH ONLY A LOW
10% CHANCE OF WINDS BEING GREATER THAN 20 KTS. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE GULFSTREAM WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING. DURING
THE AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE GULF COAST, BEGINNING IN
THE EVERGLADES AND SHIFTING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS ATLANTIC
WATERS HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC SEAS WILL BE 2-
4 FEET THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK, WHILE THE GULF WILL REMAIN 2
FEET OR LESS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
BREEZIER CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES TO START THE WEEK. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 78 88 78 88 / 20 40 30 40
WEST KENDALL 75 89 75 89 / 20 40 30 40
OPA-LOCKA 78 89 77 89 / 20 30 30 40
HOMESTEAD 77 88 77 88 / 20 40 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 86 78 86 / 10 30 40 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 77 86 77 86 / 10 30 40 40
PEMBROKE PINES 79 90 78 90 / 10 30 30 40
WEST PALM BEACH 78 86 77 86 / 10 30 30 50
BOCA RATON 79 86 78 86 / 10 30 40 50
NAPLES 74 93 74 93 / 20 60 10 80
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...HADI
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