287
FXUS62 KMFL 220622
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
122 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 116 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
- ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
- HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS IF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FALLS ONSHORE.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL EAST COAST
BEACHES TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
06Z RTMA MESOANALYSIS AS WELL AS RECENT ACARS PROFILES FROM KMIA &
KFLL CONTINUE TO DEPICT A CONTINUED GRADUAL VERTICAL EXPANSION OF
SATURATION IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR
RETURNS FROM KAMX (WSR-88D MIAMI RADAR) AT THIS HOUR CONTINUE TO
DEPICT MUCH OF THE SAME, A CONTINUED "NON-STOP SLUG" OF SHALLOW
CAPPED NIMBOSTRATUS WITH A PERSISTENT STEADY LIGHT RAINFALL PUSHING
ONSHORE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THIS IS IN LARGE PART DUE TO SOUTH FLORIDA'S CURRENT
PLACEMENT TO THE NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ONGOING
COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST AS BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE SLOWED BY THE FRICTIONAL INFLUENCES OF LAND. HOWEVER, 06Z
MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS THE BEGINNING OF A COMPLEX WEATHER SETUP THAT
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TODAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS RETROGRADES
NORTHWARDS (A PSEUDO WARM FRONT PER SE) INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE ASCENT/LIFT OF
THE BOUNDARY, DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A DUAL MESOSCALE BOOST OF 1) SPEED AND 2) FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE
COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF HEAVIER RAINFALL (AND
LOCALIZED SWATHS OF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS) ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE
OF THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE CONTINUED EXPANSION OF SATURATION HIGHER IN THE
VERTICAL COLUMN (LOW AND MID LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY) AND INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, CONVECTION WILL NO LONGER BE AS
VERTICALLY CAPPED AND SHALLOW IN NATURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER SURFACE BASED
CAPE (1000-2000 J/KG) DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST WHICH COULD ALLOW AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP. CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE SLOW
MOVING AND PINNED ALONG THE COAST AS THE 1KM AND 6KM VECTORS ARE
INVERSE OF EACH OTHER.
FOR WHAT IS BY ALL MEANS A RELATIVELY SHORT-TERM FORECAST, A HIGHER
THAN NORMAL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE BOUNDARY AND LOCATION OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL DICTATE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TODAY.
0Z MESOSCALE MODEL OUTPUT (I.E. HREF) REMAINS SPLIT ON WHERE EXACTLY
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL OCCUR WITH TWO CAMPS EMERGING:
ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE STALLED BOUNDARY, MESOSCALE
PHENOMENA (COASTAL CONVERGENCE) AT PLAY, AND FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR TODAY'S DATE, THERE IS A
REASONABLE WORST CASE (1 IN 10 CHANCE) SCENARIO WHERE AN ISOLATED
LOCATION ON THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA RECEIVES 3+ INCHES OF
RAINFALL TODAY. MOST LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE 0.5-1" RANGE. DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL (IF IT INDEED OCCURS
OVERLAND), THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS EVEN THOUGH
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ARE DRY. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION &
CLOUD COVER DOES (OR DOES NOT) MATERIALIZE ACROSS OUR LAND AREAS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S FORECAST
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
BY TONIGHT, MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE SURFACE LOW AND IT'S
ASSOCIATED ENERGY QUICKLY ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
OUR REGION WHILE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE. ALOFT,
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA AS WE REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN MID-LEVEL TROUGHING TO
THE NORTH AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OVER THE CARRIBEAN SEA.
THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY COULD STILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NOTABLY LESS THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TODAY. AS SKY CONDITIONS CLEAR AND RAIN CHANCES DECREASE,
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP ON FRIDAY AS FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG BOTH COASTS TO
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S INLAND.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
AS ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AS
THE AXIS OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CARRIBEAN
SEA, LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN
DIURNALLY DRIVEN MESO-LOW AND MESO-HIGH CIRCULATIONS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL VEER
ONSHORE ALONG BOTH COASTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS AIR FLOWS
FROM THE COOLER OCEANIC WATERS ONSHORE. WITH JUST ENOUGH EASTERLY
BACKGROUND FLOW, THE INLAND PROROGATION OF THE GULF BREEZE WILL BE
MINIMAL AND WITH THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES
WILL HEAT UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. CLOSER TO THE
COAST, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY, GRADUALLY
ADVECTING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. 500MB FLOW WILL VEER FROM A ZONAL
DIRECTION TO SOUTHWESTERLY OUT AHEAD OF A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND SHORT-WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY, AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OFF OF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE ON
SUNDAY AND IT WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LATEST NBM FORECAST
DEPICTS THE POTENTIAL OF A WIDE SWATH OF UPPER 80S ACROSS INLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA AND IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW INLAND LOCALES TO REACH THE 90S GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND LACK OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY.
THE LATEST 00Z EUROPEAN AND GFS DETERMINISTIC SUITES HAVE TRENDED
SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH BOTH
DEPICT SURFACE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUICKLY VEERING TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY HAVE TRENDED WARMER
IN THE LATEST FORECAST WITH A GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH VALUES IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. GIVEN THE QUICK SHIFT OF
SURFACE WINDS TO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT AS OPPOSED TO PENINSULAR
DRAINAGE FLOW, THE AIRMASS WILL BE MODIFIED AS IT ARRIVES ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. AFTER A STRING OF ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS, THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TO BE BELOW SEASONAL
VALUES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND
THAT TIME FRAME, HOWEVER THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER DOES
HIGHLIGHT A 70-80% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NEXT 6-
10 DAYS. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED AND IRONED OUT AS WE MOVE
FORWARD IN TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
SHRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK GULF
BREEZE DEVELOPING AT KAPF. BOUTS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL
EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN STRENGTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING, WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN HEIGHT AS WELL. A PERIOD OF BENIGN
MARINE CONDITIONS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCALLY ELEVATED SEAS
AND WINDS IN AND AROUND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. A
PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS MAY ONCE AGAIN MATERIALIZE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BEHIND THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL ATLANTIC
COAST BEACHES THROUGH THIS MORNING, BEFORE REMAINING HIGH AT PALM
BEACH BEACHES AND MODERATE AT MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD BEACHES THIS
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 69 80 69 / 40 10 20 10
WEST KENDALL 81 64 82 64 / 30 10 20 10
OPA-LOCKA 80 67 81 68 / 40 10 20 10
HOMESTEAD 80 68 81 68 / 30 10 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 68 79 68 / 40 10 30 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 69 80 69 / 40 10 30 20
PEMBROKE PINES 80 67 82 67 / 40 10 30 10
WEST PALM BEACH 78 68 80 68 / 40 20 30 20
BOCA RATON 79 68 80 68 / 50 20 30 20
NAPLES 79 64 81 64 / 10 0 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...HADI
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