210
FXUS62 KMFL 152236
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
536 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 534 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
- COLD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING, WITH FREEZE WARNINGS IN
EFFECT FOR GLADES AND HENDRY, AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF SOUTH FL. ADDITIONAL COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR THE GULF WATERS AND THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
COLD FRONT HAS JUST CROSSED LAKE OKEECHOBEE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE IT'S MARCH THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTH FL THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. COLD
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS TOMORROW MORNING
RIVALING THE COLD WEATHER EXPERIENCED AROUND THE BEGINNING OF THE
YEAR. FELT THAT NBM WAS TOO WARM ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE, SO
WENT A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE. MUCH OF GLADES AND HENDRY SHOULD FALL
TO 32 OR BELOW BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING, WITH THE PALMDALE AREA
LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. MID TO UPPER 30S IS EXPECTED
OVER THE REST OF INTERIOR SOUTH FL, AND LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED
CLOSER TO THE COASTS, INCLUDING FLL AND MIA. FREEZE WARNINGS
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR GLADES AND HENDRY, AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF SOUTH FL EXCEPT FOR THE COASTAL
ATLANTIC ZONES.
WENT A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL, BUT EVEN
WITH THAT TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY HEADLINES. NEXT
CHANCE FOR POTENTIAL COLD HEADLINES WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TODAY, WITH THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXPECTED DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS. CAM/NBM MAX POPS REMAIN
IN THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODEL PWATS REMAIN AROUND 1.5", ALONG WITH HREF-QPF MAX AROUND 1",
WHICH WILL TRANSLATE IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS WITH MODERATE RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED. IN
TERMS OF CONVECTION, THE COMBINATION OF VERY POOR CAPE/MUCAPE
VALUES AND THE PREVAILING CLOUD COVER RESTRAINING DAYTIME HEATING
WILL RESULT IN LITTLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ANY ISOLATED STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE
COASTLINE.
THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS
BEHIND THE FROPA SHIFT NW WILL MARK THE ONSET OF ROBUST COLD AIR
ADVECTION. COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOFLO ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL
DROP INTO FREEZING VALUES (30-31F) OVER GLADES AND PORTIONS OF
HENDRY COUNTIES. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS,
FOR WHICH RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS LIKE BRINGING
SENSITIVE PLANTS INDOORS, SHELTER PETS, AND ENSURE WEARING WARM
CLOTHING IF GOING OUTSIDE.
ANOTHER COLD RELATED ISSUE WILL BE WIND CHILLS WITH THE NORTHERLY
FLOW. LATEST ENSEMBLE/GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOW APPT VALUES IN THE MID-
UPPER 20S FOR NORTHERN/INTERIOR AREAS OF SOFLO, AND UP TO UPPER 30S
OVER THE COASTAL METRO AREAS. THEREFORE, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF SOFLO, EXCEPT THE
METRO AREAS CLOSEST TO THE COASTLINES. BUT EVEN RESIDENTS IN THOSE
AREAS SHOULD WEAR WARM CLOTHING IF GOING OUTSIDE EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR BEING SOFLO, WITH
COASTAL/WARMEST AREAS STILL LINGERING THE UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING UP A BIT ON SATURDAY, BUT STILL REMAINING
AROUND THE LOW-MID 70S. PERSISTING SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP NEAR ZERO
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS SOFLO, WITH MAYBE A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE
FAIRLY COOL FOR BEING SOFLO, WITH COASTAL/WARMEST AREAS STILL
LINGERING THE UPPER 60S.
BY SUNDAY, LATEST GLOBAL SOLUTIONS REMAIN ON TRACK SHOWING THE
ONSET OF ANOTHER COOL DOWN PERIOD AS A ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REACHES THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
THIS SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY DRY FROPA DURING THE LATE
SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME. LOWS MAY DROP INTO THE 30S AND
40S, WITH MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH PREVAILING N/NE
WINDS AND NEAR ZERO CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND
25 KTS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND THEN WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME NNE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
GENERALLY 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WNW THEN NW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND THE LAKE WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO
25- 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH MOST RAIN ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY MORNING.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SURGE WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF
BEACHES LATER TODAY. THE HIGH RISK IS LIKELY TO LAST INTO MID-
WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN EAST-NORTHEAST DIRECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 43 69 59 74 / 0 0 0 20
WEST KENDALL 36 69 53 76 / 0 0 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 41 69 57 76 / 0 0 0 20
HOMESTEAD 40 70 57 77 / 0 0 0 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 41 68 59 74 / 0 0 0 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 42 68 59 74 / 0 0 0 20
PEMBROKE PINES 39 69 56 75 / 0 0 0 20
WEST PALM BEACH 40 68 56 74 / 0 0 0 20
BOCA RATON 40 69 58 75 / 0 0 0 20
NAPLES 40 66 50 73 / 0 0 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR FLZ063-
066>075-174.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR FLZ063-066.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR FLZ069.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR FLZ069.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ610-630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CMF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page