059
FXUS62 KMFL 190529
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
129 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 123 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY FOR ALL
SOUTH FL WATERS.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY, WITH A SLOW MODERATING
TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
IT'S GOING TO BE A COOL AND CLOUDY COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
CONTROL OF THE EASTERN US, WITH SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PLAGUE SE FL, WHILE MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NW
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. PWAT VALUE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GLADES
COUNTY AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TODAY WILL BE STAGGERING, WITH 0.6-0.8
INCHES ACROSS GLADES COUNTY, AND AROUND 1.4 INCHES IN MIAMI-DADE.
QPF TOTALS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY MEAGER, WITH A TRACE TO AROUND A
QUARTER INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL.
WITH A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND REMAINING IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY, ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT MILDER RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S
OVER INTERIOR AND SW FL, TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO.
WHILE THE THREAT OF COASTAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ON THURSDAY, A BIT
LESS CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE WARMING, ALTHOUGH IT WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO, AND MID TO UPPER 70S OVER
INTERIOR AND SW FL.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY WHILE THE
LARGER SCALE TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. SOME
COASTAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING DRIER AIR AND LOWERING
RAINFALL CHANCES BELOW 10%, DESPITE A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP
INTO NORTHERN FL EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER WITHOUT AN UPPER LEVEL
PUSH, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN NORTHERN FL. WITH THE LOW LEVELS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY,
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF COASTAL SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND AND MODERATING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 10Z
UNDER DECKS OF CU/STRATOCU STILL STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY
THE ATL TERMINALS. -SHRA WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE PERIODS OF LOW CIGS
AT TIMES. NNE WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING. HAZARDOUS WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS MORNING IN THE GULF WATERS, REMAINING CAUTIONARY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY, AND THEN BECOMING HAZARDOUS AGAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC 5-9 FT, AND 3-6
FT IN THE GULF. OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
AN ELEVATED N/NE SWELL WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 76 63 76 63 / 10 30 20 10
WEST KENDALL 79 59 79 58 / 10 20 20 10
OPA-LOCKA 78 62 78 62 / 10 30 20 10
HOMESTEAD 78 62 78 62 / 10 30 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 63 74 63 / 10 30 30 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 75 63 75 63 / 10 30 30 10
PEMBROKE PINES 78 62 78 63 / 10 30 30 10
WEST PALM BEACH 75 62 75 62 / 10 40 20 10
BOCA RATON 76 63 76 63 / 10 40 30 10
NAPLES 79 58 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...17
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