602  
FXUS62 KMFL 191545  
AFDMFL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL  
1045 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2020  
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
QUIET MORNING WEATHER-WISE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES  
IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. RADAR IMAGERY WAS ONLY SHOWING A FEW SMALL  
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.  
 
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY VEER SOUTH AHEAD OF  
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM  
THIS FRONT OVER SOFLO ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNTIL THE LATE  
NIGHT/OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS ON  
TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE REQUIRED FOR THE MORNING  
FORECAST UPDATE.  
 

 
 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 630 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2020/  
 
AVIATION...  
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY WITH WINDS GOING FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY TO  
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT  
TONIGHT AND THEN WESTERLY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND  
POSSIBLE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION  
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN  
THIS ISSUANCE. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION  
AND TRAILING LOW CIGS AS WELL.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2020/  
 
.SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WITH COLDER WEATHER  
BEHIND THE FRONT MID-WEEK...  
 
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...  
ONE MORE DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
AND CARIBBEAN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GENERALLY  
DRY AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE  
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH AND THEN EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY  
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 80S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION  
OF THE AREA, THOUGH SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY REMAIN A BIT COOLER  
THANKS TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.  
 
AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES  
WILL ACCORDINGLY CLIMB WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.  
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS FAIRLY  
LIMITED WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT MOST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH  
THE FRONT AND ANY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS REMAINING MAINLY SHOWERS. AS  
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND EXITS THE REGION BY MONDAY  
EVENING, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY RETURN OVER THE PENINSULA  
OF FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WILL REACH  
INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE INLAND SOUTH  
FLORIDA WITH THE SOUTH FLORIDA METRO AREAS REMAINING IN THE 50S.  
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE WHICH COULD PRODUCE WIND  
CHILLS BELOW 40 DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA  
AND BELOW 50 DEGREES ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE EAST COAST METRO.  
 
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...  
COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA  
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING  
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS HELPS PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN  
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL END UP MAKING  
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THE COLDEST OF THE PERIOD,  
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S WEST OF THE LAKE  
AND ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO THE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50  
RIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO  
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT, WIND CHILL VALUES COULD DIP INTO THE LOW 30S  
TO MID 40S. ON THE OTHER HAND, FROST SHOULDN'T REALLY BE OF MUCH  
CONCERN WITH WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH EXPECTED.  
 
AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATES OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC  
ON TUESDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND  
DEEPENS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST, KEEPING THE GRADIENT TIGHT AND  
OUR WINDS FAIRLY BREEZY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES  
QUICKLY OFF FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE PARENT MID-LEVEL  
TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY  
BY THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND IS EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  
OVER THE ATLANTIC SPREADING INTO THE EAST COAST AND THE REST OF  
SOUTH FLORIDA LATER IN THE WEEK.  
 
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO  
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH DEEP LAYER TROUGHING INDUCING AND  
DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW AROUND OK/KS ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY THIS  
SYSTEM IS WORKING IT'S WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS, PUSHING INTO  
FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AND LIKELY DRAGGING ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE  
AREA THIS WEEKEND. ONE THING TO WATCH THOUGH WILL BE THE  
POSSIBILITY OF A SECOND SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT  
OVER THE GULF DUE TO SOME SPLITTING JET STRUCTURE OCCURRING AHEAD  
OF THE TROUGH. STILL HAVE A WAYS TO GO FOR IT, BUT IT COULD BE  
SOMETHING TO WATCH.  
 
MARINE...  
AS MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WITH  
DIMINISHING WIND, SWELL, AND SEAS, THE RESPITE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED  
AS ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT BY TUESDAY WITH  
ELEVATED SEAS REMAINING UNTIL WEDNESDAY IN THE GULF AND THROUGH LATE  
WEEK IN THE ATLANTIC DUE TO SWELL FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORECAST  
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO  
THE OPEN ATLANTIC.  
 
AVIATION...  
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GOING  
FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BEFORE TURNING  
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN WESTERLY. SOME SHOWERS  
MAY GET NEAR APF AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH COULD  
PRODUCE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.  
 
BEACH FORECAST...  
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND A NORTHEASTERLY ATLANTIC SWELL WILL  
ALLOW THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC  
BEACHES TODAY. SURF HEIGHTS OFF THE PALM BEACHES SHOULD DIMINISH  
THIS MORNING, FALLING BELOW HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH WILL  
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM EST THIS MORNING. THE MIAMI-DADE AND  
BROWARD BEACHES MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE RIP CURRENT RISK  
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THE PALM BEACHES APPEAR TO HAVE  
THE HIGH RISK LINGER THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEK. BEHIND THE  
FRONT, THE GULF BEACHES COULD SEE AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK  
DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY THE ANGRY ATLANTIC RETURNS TO BRING AN  
ELEVATED RISK ALONG ALL THE ATLANTIC BEACHES MID TO LATE WEEK.  

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WEST PALM BEACH 81 62 73 54 / 10 30 30 20  
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 65 75 56 / 10 30 30 10  
MIAMI 81 65 75 54 / 10 30 30 10  
NAPLES 80 58 70 47 / 10 30 20 0  
 

 
   
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ172-173.  
 
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.  
 
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-670.  
 
GM...NONE.  

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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