765
FXUS62 KMFL 122239
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
639 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 634 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
- NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, RESULTING
IN MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
A REPRIEVE FROM HUMIDITY, ALBEIT BRIEF, IS INDEED FINALLY ON THE WAY
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR
THE TIME BEING HOWEVER, 05Z MESOANALYSIS REVEALS THAT SOUTH
FLORIDA REMAINS FIRMLY IN A PLUME OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
THAT HAS POOLED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LIGHT WINDS,
CLEARING SKIES, AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL NEAR SURFACE
INVERSION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ACROSS
INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING (20-40% HREF
PROBABILITIES OF 0.5 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY PRIMARILY CONFINED TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE) BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE DISPERSES ANY NEAR SURFACE STRATUS CLOUD
DECK AND FOG.
AS A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THIS MORNING, 500MB FLOW WILL VEER FROM A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE ENHANCEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE (RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM JET-STREAK) OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY. WITH ALL OF THE BEST DYNAMICS NOW
WELL REMOVED FROM THE REGION, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY IS
FORECAST TO BE MUCH MORE SPARSE AND SHALLOW IN NATURE. THAT BEING
SAID, MAXIMIZED ASCENT AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
COULD STILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. DRY AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION
VERTICALLY CAPPED AND SHALLOW IN NATURE, WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY
THREAT OF CONVECTIVE HAZARDS. HREF AND REFS LPMM GUIDANCE DEPICT
WIDESPREAD TOTALS REMAINING LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH, WHICH
IS ALSO IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOWER DEWPOINT VALUES GRADUALLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL MAKE A LONG-AWAITED RETURN
TO SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE THIS WILL NOT BE A "COLD" OR EVEN "COOL"
FRONT BY ANY METRIC, THE CHANGE IN THE AIR WILL CERTAINLY BE
NOTICEABLE AS WE DROP FROM FORECASTED DEWPOINTS IN MID TO UPPER
70S TODAY TO DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUESDAY.
EVEN MORE REMARKABLE WILL BE THE DROP IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL OF SEEING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
BELOW THE 10% PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHILE RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN MINIMAL (<10%), OVERNIGHT MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE (HRRR,RRFS,ETC) HINT AT THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
SHALLOW CONVECTION (SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN) PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG
THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN IN A RATHER DRY WEATHER
REGIME, BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE WARM GULFSTREAM
WATERS CAN STILL PRODUCE AN ISOLATED COASTAL SPRINKLE OR TWO. NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS (FORECASTED HIGHS STILL REACH THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S ON TUESDAY) BUT A SLIGHT DROP IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER THE PAST WEEK OF RINSE AND REPEAT HUMIDITY
AND DEJA VU ABOVE AVERAGE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN SOUTH
FLORIDA, THE BRIEF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE DIP ON TUESDAY MORNING
MAY FEEL "CRISP" TO SOME. FOR THIS FORECASTER HOWEVER, I PATIENTLY
AWAIT A COLD FRONT WITH A REAL KICK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
THE ADVERTISED REPRIEVE FROM MOISTURE WILL BE A SHORT LIVED ONE AS
THE FRONTOLYTIC BOUNDARY AND ENVELOPE OF ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIFT
BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THURSDAY AS THE AXIS
OF SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SLIDES
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL FOCUS THE BEST
DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA GIVEN THE BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW AND CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF THE
WORK WEEK WILL QUICKLY FLATTEN BY THURSDAY AS THE NEXT LOBE OF
TROUGHING SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES. AS THE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES, A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN TANDEM. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT
THAT A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTACHED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN
RESPONSE AND ARRIVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE HAS BEEN A GREAT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY/
UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS OF EXACT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT
(STALL, FULL PASSAGE, ETC) FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL MEMBER TO MODEL
MEMBER (ENSEMBLE VS DETERMINISTIC). WHILE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL SURELY BECOME CLEARER AS WE PROGRESS FURTHER
INTO THE WORK WEEK, LET'S BRIEFLY DELVE INTO WHAT A STALL OF THE
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH COULD TRANSPIRE FOR OUR AREA AS OPPOSED TO A
FULL FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STALL OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF SOUTH
FLORIDA WOULD PLACE THE REGION IN THE ENVELOPE OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WHICH COULD FACILITATE HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AND
A CONTINUATION OF A HUMID AND TROPICAL AIRMASS. THE FULL PASSAGE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD USHER IN
ANOTHER PUSH OF CONTINENTAL DRY AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND DAYTIME
FORECAST TEMPERATURE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. CLUSTER
ANALYSIS STILL DEPICTS VARIATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THE LOBE OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING THIS PERIOD, WHICH COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON WHETHER
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OR MAKE A FULL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STATUS QUO THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE OF NOCTURNAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST LATE IN
THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR PREVAILS FOR THE PERIOD. WINDS SETTLE TO AROUND 5KTS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE ENE AROUND 10KTS AFTER
15-16Z TOMORROW. NOT EXPECTING ANY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AT THIS
TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARDS OUR LOCAL
WATERS DURING THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
(SCEC) CONDITIONS COULD BE REALIZED AT TIMES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF WATERS TODAY AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ENHANCE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. WAVES WILL REMAIN 2-3 FEET ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH THE CAVEAT THAT LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES AND WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ONE OR
TWO WATERSPOUTS REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 75 88 76 88 / 10 0 10 30
WEST KENDALL 75 89 74 88 / 10 0 10 40
OPA-LOCKA 75 89 76 89 / 10 0 10 30
HOMESTEAD 75 89 76 88 / 20 10 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 87 76 87 / 0 0 10 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 75 88 76 88 / 0 10 10 20
PEMBROKE PINES 74 88 75 88 / 10 0 10 30
WEST PALM BEACH 73 87 75 88 / 0 10 10 10
BOCA RATON 74 87 76 87 / 0 10 10 20
NAPLES 70 88 72 90 / 0 0 0 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...REDMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page