281
FXUS62 KMFL 062244
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
544 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 511 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
- AREAS OF FOG, SOME DENSE, MAY AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING OVER INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
- DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WHEN CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE AHEAD A FRONTAL
APPROACH.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS INCREASING TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
LATEST SFC AND MODEL ANALYSES DEPICT A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY SLIDING
INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA AND EXTENDING INTO THE NE
GULF WATERS. MEANWHILE, WEAK MID/UPPR LVL RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND SOFLO, KEEPING LOCAL INSTABILITY AND RAIN CHANCES
SUPPRESSED ENOUGH, WITH POPS/WX GRIDS IN SINGLE DIGITS TODAY.
ENSEMBLES AND NBM SOLUTIONS DEPICT A WEAK MESO-LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHERN GULF, WHICH SHOULD MIGRATE OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC WATERS BY
EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND
CLOSER TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL RESULT
IN PREVAILING S/SW FLOW, AND WITH SOFLO REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HIT THE MID-UPPER 80S
TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL PWATS SHOW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES BY
SUNDAY, BUT WITH THE MID LVL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE, RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN FAIRLY LOW. BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE LAKE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD AGAIN CONSPIRE WITH NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO BRING PERIODS OF PATCHY TO LOCALIZED DENSE FOG TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES REMAIN OVER INTERIOR AREAS, BUT
LOCATIONS KNOWN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE ATLANTIC METRO AREAS
LIKE WEST MIAMI-DADE AND CENTRAL/WESTERN BROWARD MAY ALSO SEE SOME
FOG ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY NEAR SUNRISE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN-CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL
FINALLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON SUNDAY NIGHT, AND CAP OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 40-50%
RANGE. INSTABILITY DOESN'T LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE ON EITHER DAY
(SBCAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AT BEST), BUT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH ALONG THE COASTS AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THAT PERHAPS A
FEW ROGUE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. COOLER,
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT, AND
PREVAIL INTO LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH PWATS BACK TO THE 0.8-1 INCH
RANGE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY.
A FEW ADDITIONAL SURFACE LOWS WILL DEVELOP OVER CONUS IN THE
INTERIM AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES PROGRESS EASTWARD, WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO WATCH COMING ON THE TAILS OF A SURFACE LOW FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, A
FRONTAL APPROACH WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK,
AND MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING AND INTENSITY,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS AT PLAY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL US DURING THIS PERIOD. CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF DAYS 6-7
SHOW GENERALIZED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GEFS AND GEPS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL GENERALLY FAVORING A
SLOWER AND WEAKER TROUGH (WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WEAKER FRONT AND
SLOWER APPROACH TO OUR AREA), WHILE THE GEFS/GEPS SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE IN FASTER/DEEPER SOLUTIONS WITH FEWER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
OVERALL. CONCLUSION? IT'S TOO EARLY TO LOCK INTO ANYTHING, BUT
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY POTENTIAL OUTCOME AND IMPACTS TO THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
WHILE VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS, SOME VCSH ARE POSSIBLE AROUND PBI, FLL AND FXE AFTER 18Z
AS A FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. L/V WINDS TONIGHT, THEN
MAINLY SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KT AFTER 15Z. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
APF WHERE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AFTER 17-18Z AS A GULF BREEZE
DEVELOPS. ALSO, BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG MAY RESULT IN REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT APF SUNDAY EARLY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
GENERALLY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE PERSISTS. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT 1-3 FEET ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS. AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, WINDS COULD INCREASE AND VEER FROM THE NORTH
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 70 84 72 84 / 0 10 20 40
WEST KENDALL 66 86 69 84 / 0 10 10 30
OPA-LOCKA 69 86 71 84 / 0 10 20 40
HOMESTEAD 69 85 71 84 / 0 10 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 84 71 82 / 0 20 20 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 69 84 71 82 / 0 20 20 40
PEMBROKE PINES 68 87 71 84 / 0 10 20 40
WEST PALM BEACH 68 85 69 81 / 0 30 30 40
BOCA RATON 68 86 70 83 / 0 20 20 40
NAPLES 69 83 71 80 / 0 20 50 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...17
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