831
FXUS62 KMFL 101721
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1221 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
- PATCHES OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING
PRIMARILY ACROSS SW FLORIDA AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.
- DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT BELOW ANY RECORD VALUES.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
ALSO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SITS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA BASIN. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN US TODAY INTO TOMORROW, USHERING IN A PATTERN
CHANGE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WEEK.
ESTERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THANKS TO THE
LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH, AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE, WITH PWATS FORECAST TO REACH 1-1.2 INCHES
THIS AFTERNOON AFTERNOON. WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP LATER AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES IN, THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO. NBM HAS BEEN
STRUGGLING TO REPRESENT THIS DYNAMIC OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS,
SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED POPS UP TO 15-20% FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL START TO VEER ON SUNDAY ONCE THE FRONT REACHES THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL STREAM IN ACROSS THE
REGION. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY
NIGHTFALL ON SUNDAY, WITH ENHANCED CHANCES FOR RAIN (POPS 20-30%)
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND BALMY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY APPROACHING
RECORD VALUES AT SOME OF OUR CLIMATE SITES. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
LINGER IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO START THE
NEW WEEK. ITS PRESENCE WILL HELP KEEP ISOLATED CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, NORTHERLY-
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S NEAR THE INTERIOR AND IN THE LOWER 60S
ALONG THE EAST COAST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, WITH
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SHOW ANOTHER, STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION. THE NBM DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO
FAIRLY WELL, WITH POPS IN THE 20-40% RANGE WED-FRI, AND LOWS
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LOW 50S
ACROSS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A GULF-
BREEZE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND AT KAPF BETWEEN
20-22Z. LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW
THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE LOCAL WATERS LATER ON
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 69 82 67 76 / 20 10 20 20
WEST KENDALL 64 83 63 78 / 20 10 20 10
OPA-LOCKA 67 83 66 77 / 20 10 20 20
HOMESTEAD 67 83 65 78 / 20 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 67 80 67 75 / 20 10 30 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 68 81 67 75 / 20 10 30 10
PEMBROKE PINES 66 83 64 77 / 20 10 20 20
WEST PALM BEACH 67 82 66 75 / 20 10 20 10
BOCA RATON 67 83 67 76 / 20 10 30 10
NAPLES 65 80 59 78 / 10 0 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...99
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