499
FXUS62 KMFL 170704
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
304 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 255 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN LOWER VISIBILITIES FOR EARLY
COMMUTERS.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL EAST
COAST BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AS RIDGING REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF WATERS AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, AND AN ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR
MASS ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
HOWEVER, SOME MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO FILTER IN OVER THE REGION AS
EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING AND ACARS DATA FROM KMIA/KFLL/KPBI
TONIGHT, WHICH SHOW PWATS UP TO THE 0.7-0.8 INCH RANGE, UP FROM 0.5-
0.6 FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE
LOWER LEVELS (UP TO 1 INCH BY SATURDAY ACCORDING TO ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE) WILL ALLOW FOR NUISANCE SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. NBM WASN'T CAPTURING THIS ADEQUATELY, SO WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED UP SOME OF THE POPS UP TO THE 15-20% RANGE.
THIS GRADUAL MOISTENING, ALONG WITH VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING, COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS
INLAND FL. HREF AND SREF SHOW A LOW-END (15-30%)CHANCE FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR BETWEEN 4-9AM TODAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. COMMUTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE.
WITH EASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING NEAR THE SURFACE AND PERSISTENT
SUBSIDENCE, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY AND ON SATURDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERIOR FL, WHILE THEY'LL MOST
LIKELY CAP OUT IN THE LOW 80S ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOWS EACH DAY
WILL DROP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LOW 70S ALONG THE
COASTS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT
A GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL US, WHICH COULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALOFT, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND, ERODING THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF
AND WEAKENING THE SURFACE HIGH. THIS GRADUAL PROCESS WILL ALLOW FOR
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH MODELED
PWATS SURGING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
(1.1-1.3 INCHES). THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS IT DOES, IT WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS FRONT DROPPING ALONG THE PENINSULA EARLY IN THE WEEK (BETWEEN
MONDAY-TUESDAY) AND CLEARING THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY
MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MODEL MEAN SOLUTION IS A REASONABLE
FORECAST OPTION, AND IT SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND BACK
HALF OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ON THE BACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY; THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO DEPICTED IN THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS. THIS SHORTWAVE WOULD PUSH A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GULF TOWARDS
SOUTH FLORIDA, RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGHER
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WED-THUR. HOWEVER, IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE
GEFS IS THE ONLY MODEL SYSTEM THAT PRESENTS THIS SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME; NEITHER THE EPS (THE ENSEMBLE ECMWF, WHICH DOMINATES THE MODEL
MEAN), AND THE GEPS (THE ENSEMBLE CANADIAN) SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND AS SUCH SUPPORT A MUCH DRIER
SOLUTION WED-THUR. FURTHERMORE, THOSE GEFS MEMBERS PRESENTING THIS
SOLUTION ACCOUNT FOR A MINORITY OF THE TOTAL ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE, WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MEMBERS IN CLEAR CONSENSUS
FOR A DRIER SOLUTION. WE'LL HAVE TO CONTINUE MONITORING THIS
FORECAST, BUT FOR NOW WE KEPT POPS IN THE 15-20% RANGE.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT MIGHT BE TEMPERED A BIT BY
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL CAP OUT
IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND MID 80S ALONG THE EAST
COAST. CONDITIONS COULD COOL BACK DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGHS NEXT
WEEK IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. LOWS EACH NIGHT COULD DIP INTO
THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND DOWN TO THE 60S ALONG THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME EASTERLY SOUTHEASTERLY UP TO
10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT AT KAPF WHERE A GULF BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
A MODERATE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. LIGHTER WINDS WILL
SET UP OVER THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL DROP TO 2-4 FT IN THE
ATLANTIC AND REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
BREEZY, HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 84 72 85 72 / 20 10 0 10
WEST KENDALL 87 69 88 69 / 20 0 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 86 72 87 72 / 20 10 0 10
HOMESTEAD 84 72 85 72 / 10 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 72 83 72 / 20 10 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 82 72 84 72 / 20 10 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 87 74 88 74 / 20 10 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 83 71 84 71 / 20 10 10 10
BOCA RATON 82 72 84 72 / 20 10 0 10
NAPLES 87 70 88 71 / 0 0 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...ATV
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