130
FXUS62 KMFL 261602
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1202 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025
GOES-19 GEOCOLOR VISIBLE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A VAST
EXPANSE OF LOW-TOPPED CUMULUS OVER THE LAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
DUE A THIN/SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. ACARS
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM AREA AIRPORTS DEPICT A SUBSTANTIAL DRY
LAYER FROM 900MB THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE VERTICAL COLUMN
COURTESY OF A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST ALOFT AND CONTINUED MID-LEVEL
RIDGING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THESE OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
REMAIN NEAR DAILY MINIMUM LOWS ACCORDING TO THE SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY PAGE. FORECAST FROM THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT REMAINS ON
TRACK, A VERY QUIET ALBEIT HOT AND HAZY LATE JULY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING REMAINS IN STORE FOR OUR AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THANKS TO IN LARGE PART THIS DRIER
AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO JUST
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AS ADVERTISED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS,
UNUSUALLY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND A SAHARAN AIR LAYER
(SAL) LED TO A RECORD-DAILY-LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE OF
1.14" IN THE MIAMI SOUNDING FROM 00Z (MEAN VALUE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR IS 1.8 INCHES). THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL EXPAND THIS WEEKEND
AS IT MOVES WEST, WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH ACROSS THE SE UNITED
STATES AND NE GULF WATERS LATE SUNDAY. A NE WIND FLOW ON THE
BACK/EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES TODAY
INCREASING TO 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF THE DRY
AIR MOVES WEST OF THE AREA. LATEST AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SOLID INVERSION IN THE 900 MB LAYER WHICH WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL
CONVECTION TODAY OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS ONE OR TWO LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ATTEMPTING TO FORM ALONG THE GULF SEA BREEZE OVER SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN COLLIER COUNTY. THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON
SUNDAY MAY BE ABLE TO SUPPORT A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE GULF SEA BREEZE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER SW FLORIDA, AND
WE'RE KEEPING SUNDAY POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE OVER THESE AREAS.
WITH THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO SOAR THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EVERGLADES WHERE MAX
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL TOP IN THE UPPER 90S. THE NBM SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING TEMPERATURES WELL, AND EVEN SHOWS GREATER THAN 50%
PROBABILITIES OF MAX TEMPS EXCEEDING 99F OVER EASTERN COLLIER
COUNTY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WILL BE COMMON EVERYWHERE
ELSE, EXCEPT NEAR 90F AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES WHERE E/NE WINDS WILL
MODIFY TEMPERATURES. A FAVORABLE ASPECT OF THE DRY AIR OVER THE
REGION IS LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS RESULTING FROM MIXING OF THE DRY
AIR TO THE SURFACE. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE EVERGLADES, AND LOWER TO MID 70S
ELSEWHERE, WHICH SHOULD PREVENT HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM REACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA FOR THE REQUIRED
DURATION. NEVERTHELESS, HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100-105F FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY ARE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO HEAT ILLNESS IF PRECAUTIONS
ARE NOT TAKEN. BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE
AC, AND ALWAYS LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK YOUR VEHICLE FOR PETS AND
CHILDREN.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK,
EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR A WEAK 850-500 MB TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC TO APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE, COMBINED WITH A TUTT LOW, WILL SHIFT THE
MEAN WIND FLOW OUT OF THE SE BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL OPEN UP A BIT MORE OF A
MOISTURE CHANNEL INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK,
HOWEVER ENSEMBLE MEAN PWAT VALUES ONLY MODESTLY INCREASE INTO THE
1.7-1.9 INCH RANGE, NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THE TREND OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOLLOW SUIT, WITH CONVECTION
GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM MONDAY ONWARD. THE PREVAILING
E/SE WIND FLOW WILL FAVOR MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS SE FLORIDA AND
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AND
SW FLORIDA AREAS. INTERESTINGLY, MODELS SHOW LINGERING SAL OVER
THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA THROUGH MID-WEEK, AN INDICATION THAT THERE
MAY STILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF STABILITY IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN POPS THAT STAY BELOW NORMAL OVER SE FLORIDA
(20-40%) AND INCREASING TO 50-60% INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF POPS MAY END UP HAVING TO BE INCREASED
OVER SE FLORIDA AT TIMES DURING THE WEEK DEPENDING ON ANY PATCHES
OF HIGHER LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE E/SE FLOW TRANSITING
THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL, WELL IN THE 90S OVER
MOST AREAS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM. IN FACT, THE NBM IS
SHOWING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA FROM WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE EASTERN EVERGLADES DURING
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST
INDEX (EFI) SHOWING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE UPPER END OF THE
FORECAST DISTRIBUTION OF THE ENSEMBLES. THIS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS SLOWLY INCREASING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS WILL ELEVATE
HEAT CONCERNS AND WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025
VFR AND DRY THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD. EASTERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A GULF
BREEZE DEVELOPING AT KAPF BETWEEN 18-20Z. L/V WINDS EXPECTED SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA TODAY WILL SHIFT WEST INTO THE GULF
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND WEAKEN DURING NEXT WEEK INTO A RIDGE ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS,
EXCEPT NEAR THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN
A SEABREEZE WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025
THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY, THEN DECREASE SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING A PATTERN OF
MORNING/MIDDAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES AND AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
THE GULF BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 78 92 79 93 / 0 10 10 20
WEST KENDALL 75 92 76 93 / 0 10 20 20
OPA-LOCKA 78 94 79 94 / 0 10 10 20
HOMESTEAD 77 91 77 91 / 0 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 91 79 91 / 0 10 10 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 92 79 93 / 0 10 10 20
PEMBROKE PINES 80 96 80 96 / 0 10 10 20
WEST PALM BEACH 77 92 78 93 / 0 10 0 10
BOCA RATON 78 93 78 93 / 0 10 10 20
NAPLES 78 95 79 94 / 0 20 10 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....MOLLEDA
AVIATION...HADI
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