379
FXUS62 KMFL 022227
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
527 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 524 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
- A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALONG THE GULF
COAST, BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO DROUGHT STRICKEN
AREAS.
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS WEEK.
- HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
MESOANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A WEATHER REGIME
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INDICATIVE OF BEING SITED ON THE FAR SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGING AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY
BUILDS ALOFT. WITH THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING ALOFT, MESOSCALE
PHENOMENA AND BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS THE FOCI FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TODAY. WITH THE STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW, A PINNED GULF
SEA-BREEZE AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.2 TO 1.4) WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW
MOVING SHOWER ACTIVITY PINNED ALONG THE GULF BREEZE. 12Z LPMM
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED SWATHS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST OR JUST
OFFSHORE. ANY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD BE WELCOME AS THE
REGION REMAINS IN A SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION, AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, QUICK MOVING COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM ALONG THE EAST COAST. WITH LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FORCING, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
MINIMAL HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM WATERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY AND TOMORROW
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED
EACH DAY. BREEZY EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE (30-40%) FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
MODEST MOISTURE REMAINS (PWATS 1.2-1.3 INCHES) WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST.
SURFACE FLOW VEERS MORE EASTERLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S FOR EAST COAST METRO
AREAS, HOWEVER DUE TO THE LONG DURATION EASTERLY FLOW, A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED FOR INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND HIGHS COULD
APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHRA ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AND KAPF
THIS EVENING, DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AT
EAST COAST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT
KAPF. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AT EAST COAST TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN
AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
EXPECT A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK
AND A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED.
THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 69 80 70 81 / 10 20 20 20
WEST KENDALL 65 83 67 83 / 10 20 20 30
OPA-LOCKA 68 82 70 83 / 10 20 20 20
HOMESTEAD 70 82 70 83 / 10 20 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 79 70 80 / 20 20 20 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 69 79 70 80 / 20 20 20 20
PEMBROKE PINES 68 83 70 83 / 10 20 20 20
WEST PALM BEACH 68 80 69 81 / 20 20 20 20
BOCA RATON 68 80 69 81 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 65 85 67 85 / 30 20 20 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...HADI
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