933
FXUS62 KMFL 071711
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
111 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1246 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PROBABILITIES OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS
ACROSS URBAN AREAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME CONTINUE TO
INCREASE.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
MODELS AND SFC ANALYSES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A DOMINANT RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE WEST ATLANTIC AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO
SOFLO. THE HIGH PRESSURE FLATTENS AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA, BEING PUSHED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND THE NW GULF. THIS WILL RESULT
IN EVEN WEAKER WINDS OVER SOFLO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
WITH FLOW BECOMING LIGHT OR EVEN CALM AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT.
THE WEAKENING SFC WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO AGAIN
BECOME DOMINANT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH-RES MODELS ARE NOT
RESPONDING TO ANY POTENTIAL FORCING PROVIDED BY THE SEA BREEZES AS
THEY PUSH INLAND. HOWEVER, THE PAST COUPLE OF AFTERNOON PERIODS WERE
CLEARLY DOMINATED BY LOCALIZED CONVECTION GENERATED BY THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES COLLIDING OVER INTERIOR SOFLO. THEREFORE, LOW-END POPS
(~20%) WILL BE INTRODUCED IN THE GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON TO BETTER REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
ACTIVITY, MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS.
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN TODAY AND FRIDAY, REGARDLESS OF
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT MATERIALIZES FROM SEA BREEZES. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTS, AND
INTO THE LOW-MID 90S OVER INTERIOR AREAS. NWS HEATRISK REMAINS MINOR
ALONG THE COASTS AND MODERATE FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS TODAY. THEN THE
MODERATE HEATRISK EXPANDS TO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.
NIGHTTIME LOWS ALSO REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH MAINLY MID-UPPER
60S INLAND, AND INTO THE LOW 70S NEAR THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POISED TO PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. TIMING FOR THIS FEATURE HAS SLOWED
SIGNIFICANTLY, AND GIVEN THE LAST FEW FORECAST MODEL RUNS, IT'S
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY, SUNNY
AND HOT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS
WHERE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE, HOWEVER WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NEARLY
OVERHEAD, THESE SHOULD BE LOW-TOPPED AND RATHER WEAK. THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT RISK PEAKS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ALONG THE COAST AND MID-UPPER 90S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS. NWS
PROTOTYPE PROBABILISTIC HEATRISK DEPICTS A 70-80% PROBABILITY OF
MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A 10-15% CHANCE OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4/4) HEATRISK. WHILE THESE
PROBABILISTIC VALUES MAY FLUCTUATE AS WE REMAIN SEVERAL DAYS OUT IN
TIME, MAJOR AND EXTREME HEATRISK CAN BE IMPACTFUL TO ANYONE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION AS WELL AS HEALTH SYSTEM AND INDUSTRIES.
VERY LITTLE RELIEF IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL STRUGGLE TO DIP BELOW 80 DEGREES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL PROVIDE LITTLE TO NO RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS.
HEAT IMPACTS ASIDE, RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AND A FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEEPEN AND ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL SEND ITS
ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY, AND IF THE BOUNDARY IS
ABLE TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA (WHICH SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT
CURRENTLY) NORTHEAST FLOW ON TUESDAY WHICH HYPOTHETICALLY COULD
PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AROUND 30-
50% EARLY NEXT WEEK, DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FRONT
BUT AM HOLDING STEADY WITH THIS UPDATE FOR NOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.
MODERATE SE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL, EXCEPT FOR A WESTERLY SHIFT AT
APF WITH GULF BREEZES AFTER 17Z. L/V FLOW, OR EVEN CALM AT TIMES,
RETURN AFTER 00-02Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE COMING DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS LOCAL GULF WATERS. WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN 1-3 FEET OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 74 92 78 91 / 0 0 0 10
WEST KENDALL 70 94 74 93 / 0 0 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 74 93 77 92 / 0 0 0 10
HOMESTEAD 73 91 76 90 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 89 79 89 / 0 0 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 74 90 78 90 / 0 0 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 75 94 78 94 / 0 0 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 74 91 77 91 / 0 0 0 10
BOCA RATON 74 90 79 90 / 0 0 0 10
NAPLES 73 90 75 91 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....GR
MARINE...GR
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page