169
FXUS62 KMLB 121840
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
240 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT
CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD,
AND NEVER SWIM ALONE!
- A BREAK FROM THE PROLONGED STRETCH OF WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL BE WARM BUT LESS HUMID
- SHOWER CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... KMLB RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY WEATHER ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. GOES-19 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION. ANALYSIS CHARTS
SHOW THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
(~1022MB) IS SITUATED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
COOLED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS HAVE BEEN
SOMEWHAT BREEZY AT TIMES AND ARE CURRENTLY FROM THE NORTH AT
6-12MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15-22MPH.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S TONIGHT (WARMEST ALONG THE
COAST) WITH CLEAR SKIES.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AS
NORTHERLY FLOW VEERS ONSHORE. A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE (~1020MB) IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE SHOWS PWAT VALUES
INCREASING TO 1.0- 1.3" BY WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY (MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE ORLANDO METRO. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED GUSTY
SHOWERS WITH MODERATE RAINFALL. SEASONABLE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S WITH SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL (~1F-3F+ DEGREES)
LOW TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY... DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE MID TO LONG TERM FORECAST, HOWEVER, THERE
ARE STILL DEVIATIONS IN THE DIFFERENT LREF-CLUSTERS' POTENTIAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US ON THURSDAY WITH THE
APEX OF THE RIDGE FORECAST TO REACH CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, THE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE LREF-CLUSTERS SHOWING CLUSTERS THAT HAVE THE TROUGH
DEEPEN ALL THE WAY TO THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE OTHER CLUSTERS
DEEPENING THE TROUGH TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, AS WELL AS THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE MOST DAYS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ISOLATED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS (MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL ON THURSDAY) AND
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHTING STORMS FORECAST EACH DAY.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY FROM THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS TO 35MPH OR
GREATER IS AT 30-70%+ ON SATURDAY (HIGHEST PROBABILITIES NORTH OF
THE TREASURE COAST) AND 40-80%+ ON SUNDAY. SEASONABLE TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO COOL
INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHIFTS EAST.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. NORTH WINDS AT 5-15KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
SEAS TO 2-3FT UP TO 4FT OVER THE OFFSHORE (20-60NM) WATERS.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MID
TO LATE WEEK WITH ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND
ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS, AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS. NORTHEAST WINDS
AT 6-12KTS ARE FORECAST TO VEER EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW AT 10-15KTS THROUGH THE WEEK. SEAS TO 2-3FT THROUGH
THE WEEK ARE FORECAST WITH UP TO 4FT OVER THE GULF STREAM ON
TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS NW/N/NNE BEHIND A WEAK
"COOL" FRONT WITH SPEEDS 8-11 KTS GUSTING TO 15 KTS. SCT MARINE
STRATOCU WITH BASES 025-035AGL SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH BACK ONSHORE THE
COAST TONIGHT AFT 06Z AS FLOW VEERS N/NE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 67 84 69 85 / 0 0 10 20
MCO 66 87 69 87 / 0 0 10 10
MLB 69 85 73 86 / 0 0 20 20
VRB 68 86 71 87 / 0 10 20 20
LEE 65 87 67 87 / 0 0 0 10
SFB 67 87 69 87 / 0 0 10 10
ORL 67 87 70 87 / 0 0 10 10
FPR 67 86 70 87 / 0 10 20 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEHLING
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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