324
FXUS62 KMLB 051419
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
919 AM EST TUE DEC 5 2023
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 844 AM EST TUE DEC 5 2023
MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
UP THROUGH 700 MB WITH MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. SOME
ALTOCUMULUS AND ESPECIALLY CIRROSTRATUS WILL STREAM RAPIDLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA IN FAST FLOW AND MAINTAIN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE WITH MAX
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS LEE/DAB TO NEAR 80F
MARTIN COUNTY. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES NEEDED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 844 AM EST TUE DEC 5 2023
VFR WITH W TO NW FLOW UP TO 10 KNOTS THRU TONIGHT. THEN NW FLOW
INCREASES 12-15 KNOTS WED WITH GUSTS 20-24 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 844 AM EST TUE DEC 5 2023
TODAY-TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH, WITH HIGHER MOISTURE ALOFT KEEPING SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST, GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH. A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...SHARP MID LEVEL ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS PUSHES OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A
TRANSIENT FLAT RIDGE REBUILDING OVER FL LATE THU-THU NIGHT. THIS
RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK RIPPLED OF
VORTICITY STREAM ENE ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND FL. AT THE SURFACE A NW-
N WIND SURGE WILL PUSH EVEN COOLER AIR WED-WED NIGHT. THE COOL SHOT
WILL BE "ONE AND DONE" AS WINDS QUICKLY VEER ONSHORE/ENE EARLY THU,
VEERING TO EAST AND BRIEFLY SLACKENING THROUGH THU NIGHT AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ALONG THE SE SEABOARD. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
SE AND BEGIN TO FRESHEN FRI-FRI NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND
AFTER A COOL START TO THE MID-WEEK.
WHILE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM CONTINUES OVERHEAD. SOME
TRANSIENT DRYING ALOFT ALLOWS HIGH CLOUDS TO THIN WED-WED NIGHT,
HOWEVER INCREASING H50-H20 RH FIELDS PORTEND HIGH CLOUDS RETURNING
THU, THICKENING THROUGH FRI. TEMPS WED-WED NIGHT L60S/L40S NORTH
TO U40S/U60S SOUTH, EXCEPT L50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS WINDS
START TO VEER N-NNE. WCIS IN THE U30S NORTH OF I-4 AWAY FROM THE
METRO AREAS. MAXES U60S-L70S ON THU WITH MINS U40S-L50S INTERIOR,
55- 60F CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR FRI, L70S NORTH/M-U70S CENTRAL
AND SOUTH WITH MINS U50S INTERIOR NORTH TO M60S TREASURE COAST.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT, BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSS THE MS
VALLEY SUN, THEN LIFTS NE THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE, BROADLY CYCLONIC ZONAL/ WSW OVER
THE SE CONUS/FL GRADUALLY FLATTENS THROUGH MON NIGHT. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TRENDS AS THERE MAY BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/ SEVERE STORMS
(ESPECIALLY NORTH) ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUN.
MODELS SHOW S-SW H85 WINDS INCREASE 30-35KT (ECM 35-45KT), WITH
FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR VALUES REACHING 40-50KT NORTH OF ORLANDO-CAPE
CANAVERAL.
WEEKEND TEMPS U70S NORTH/L80S SOUTH. SAT NIGHT MINS IN THE 60S,
FALLING BACK TO 50S-L60S (U40S FAR NW) SUN NIGHT. QUITE A BIT COOLER
FOR MON WITH MAXES U60S NW OF I-4 AND L-M70S TO THE SOUTH WITH MINS
SIMILAR TO SUN NIGHT.
MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL KEEP
SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET. LATE TONIGHT, WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND A REINFORCING BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SEAS
INCREASING TO 4 TO 6 FEET LATE TONIGHT, WITH FURTHER INCREASES IN
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AFTER
09Z ACROSS THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD WATERS.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...HAZARDOUS WINDS/SEAS SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST WATERS AFTER SUNRISE, AS NW-N WINDS INCREASE TO
20-25KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-9FT WELL
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT. NW WINDS
DROP BACK TO 15-20KT EARLY THU MORNING AND 8-12KT BY EVENING AS
THEY VEER EASTERLY. A LINGERING SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED
(4-6FT) INTO EARLY EVENING, BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO 3-5FT LATE
THU NIGHT-FRI. GRADUAL FRESHENING OF SE WINDS TO 12-17KT SAT
WILL MAINTAIN 3-5FT SEAS SAT MORNING, BUILDING UP TO 6FT WELL
OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE FIRE SENSITIVE
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S WITH NW WINDS 15 MPH/GUSTY AT TIMES. MIN RH VALUES
QUICKLY RECOVER STARTING THURSDAY IN DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 73 48 63 48 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 74 51 64 47 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 77 51 67 52 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 77 50 69 53 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 71 48 63 42 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 74 49 64 46 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 74 51 65 47 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 79 50 68 53 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR AMZ550-552-570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR AMZ555-575.
KELLY
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