719
FXUS62 KMLB 312332
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
732 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- BREEZY/GUSTY WEST WINDS MONDAY WILL SUPPRESS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. RAIN/STORM CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY WITH A RISK OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS (LEVEL 1/5) CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA BEACHES; ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD!
- THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT LATE THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA, BRINGING DRIER AIR, LOWER
TEMPERATURES, AND DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
THRU TONIGHT...EARLIER START TO DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER COVERAGE AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL FL.
KMLB DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS FORMED
ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST BUT INLAND PROGRESS IS VERY SLOW. HAVE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
ALONG THE COAST AS A BOOST IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED AS THESE STORMS COLLIDE WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50-55 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY STORM THREATS. MARINE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY FROM THE CAPE
SOUTH FOR BOATERS ON THE INTRACOASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
MON-TUE...WEAK, NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER MONDAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE OUR
WESTERLY FLOW. THE OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH (~20 KNOTS AT
850 MB) TO PREVENT THE SEA BREEZE FROM FORMING, EXCEPT PERHAPS
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE IT WOULD STAY PINNED. THIS SHOULD
SET UP A HOT DAY EVEN AT THE COAST WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY MID 90S IF ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS THOUGH
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL BE 40-60%, HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH ON
MONDAY.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW DECREASES TUE AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY AND A
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SO A SEA
BREEZE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUE AFTN. IN ADDITION, SOME COOLING
ALOFT AND STEEPENING LASE RATES COMBINED WITH CONTINUED DEEP
MOISTURE WILL PRESENT A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND TUE AFTN. RAIN/STORM CHANCES
WILL BE HIGHEST ON TUE WITH 60-70% AREAWIDE, PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW BRINGS STORMS
ACROSS THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. PEAK HEAT INDICES BOTH DAYS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
WED-SAT...ANOTHER NON-TROPICAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
OFFSHORE NC WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL FL WED. AS A RESULT, BREEZY NE WINDS WILL BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE MID 80S, EVEN LOW 80S ALONG THE VOLUSIA
COAST. BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S NEXT WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES THIS
PERIOD ARE HIGHEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH 40% NORTH AND 70% SOUTH.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK, SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, KEEPING BOATING
CONDITIONS GENERALLY FAVORABLE EARLY THIS WEEK. SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 5 FEET, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS FOCUSED
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CLOUD-TO-
WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS, AND
LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
NORTH- NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. POOR BOATING CONDITIONS
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY, WITH SEAS BUILDING UP
TO 9 FEET BRIEFLY IN THE GULF STREAM AND 5-7 FT NEARSHORE. SO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE EASTERLY AND DECREASE 10-15 KNOTS
THURSDAY-FRIDAY. SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 6 FT ON FRI IN THE GULF
STREAM WITH 4-5 FT NEARSHORE. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE
NORTH WILL HELP DECREASE RAIN CHANCES FROM THURSDAY ONWARD, THOUGH
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS,
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
TS INVOF KDAB-KTIX SHOULD SLIP SOUTH/OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. A FEW SHRA/TSRA INLAND OF KVRB-KSUA COULD REACH THE COASTAL
TERMINALS BY 04Z, BEFORE DISSIPATING OR MOVING OFFSHORE. MOSTLY
QUIET CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE NIGHT SAVE, SAVE FOR A PASSING
QUICK -SHRA. OFFSHORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT, THEN PICK BACK UP TO 7-13 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MONDAY.
THE EAST COAT BREEZE WILL LIKELY TO BE PINNED NEAR TO OFFSHORE
MOST IF NOT ALL THE COAST. ANOTHER EARLY START TO SHRA LIKELY
MONDAY, BUT OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD PUSH MOST IF NOT ALL TS EAST OF
THE TERMINALS FAIRLY QUICKLY. MAINLY ISO COVERAGE FORECAST INVOF
INLAND TERMINALS, BECOMING MORE SCT ALONG THE COAST. LOCATIONS
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE CAN MAKE AN INLAND PUSH WILL BE FAVORED FOR
TS DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 75 89 75 89 / 20 60 20 70
MCO 75 90 76 90 / 20 50 10 70
MLB 77 91 77 90 / 30 50 20 70
VRB 75 91 76 90 / 20 50 20 70
LEE 77 90 77 91 / 10 50 30 60
SFB 76 91 76 92 / 20 60 20 70
ORL 76 90 77 91 / 10 50 10 70
FPR 75 90 76 89 / 20 50 20 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...HALEY
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