102
FXUS62 KMLB 181412
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1012 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2022
DISCUSSION
WEAK GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA AS CENTRAL FL IS BETWEEN TWO
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE GULF AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. THIS IS PRODUCING A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAT WILL ALLOW THE EAST
AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PW VALUES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY, AROUND
1.4-1.5 INCHES IN THIS MORNING'S SOUNDINGS AT TBW/XMR. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THIS MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND INLAND OF THIS
BOUNDARIES, AND WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION TOWARD THE CENTER OF
THE FL PENINSULA CLOSER TO SUNSET. HAVE POPS RANGING FROM 20
PERCENT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TO 30-40 PERCENT WEST OF I-95. MAIN
STORM THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 40 MPH. SLOW AND VARIABLE STORM MOTION MAY ALSO LEAD TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME SPOTS.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 90F
ALONG THE COAST, AND LOW TO MID 90S INLAND. STRONG VERTICAL MIXING
SHOULD LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE WEST OF I-95,
WHICH KEEPS PEAK HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 96-99. WHILE CURRENTLY NOT
FORECAST TO REACH RECORD HIGHS TODAY, THE FORECAST MAX TEMPS AT
ORLANDO AND SANFORD WILL BE CLOSE, WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE INLAND
MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS IT COLLIDES
WITH THE WEST COAST BREEZE ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TOWARD LAKE
COUNTY AND THE KISSIMMEE RIVER CLOSER TO SUNSET. TEMPO IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT DUE TO LOWER
END RAIN CHANCES WILL ONLY KEEP MENTION OF VCTS IN FOR THE INLAND
TAF SITES FOR NOW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
VEER ESE/SE AT 10-15KT BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE.
MARINE
FAVORABLE MARINE AND BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY AS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME ESE/SE AT 10-15 KNOTS
BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. IT COULD BECOME BREEZY SOUTH
OF THE CAPE FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE QUICKLY MOVES
INLAND.
CLIMATE
LISTED BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR MAY 18TH AND 19TH.
SITE MAY 18 MAY 19
DAYTONA BCH 97 1995 94 1995
LEESBURG 98 1996 94 1991
SANFORD 95 2002 97 1960
ORLANDO 97 1930 98 1908
MELBOURNE 96 1995 95 1995
VERO BEACH 96 1995 95 1995
FORT PIERCE 98 1995 97 1995
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 89 71 92 71 / 20 10 10 0
MCO 95 72 97 72 / 30 20 20 0
MLB 88 72 90 72 / 20 0 10 0
VRB 89 70 91 71 / 20 10 10 10
LEE 94 72 94 72 / 30 20 20 0
SFB 94 72 95 72 / 30 20 20 0
ORL 95 74 97 75 / 30 20 20 0
FPR 89 70 91 71 / 20 10 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
WEITLICH/HALEY
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