522
FXUS62 KMLB 141125
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
725 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
- A HUMID AND UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS EARLY THIS WEEK.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ARE FORECAST,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE INTERIOR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 40-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
- TURNING WINDY, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST, FROM LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RISK OF HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING
CONDITIONS INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, INCLUDING ROUGH
SURF/SEAS AND A HIGH RISK FOR LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
- HEIGHTENED RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO COASTAL COMMUNITIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. REPEATED BANDS OF RAIN AND STORMS OVER
SATURATED SPOTS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, PUSHING A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST AND
MID ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BEGIN TO
VEER AFTER SUNRISE, TURNING EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS MIDDAY. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES AN ACTIVE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE, INITIATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
PRIMARILY WEST OF I-95 AS IT PUSHES INLAND AND TOWARDS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY STORM
HAZARDS REMAIN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH.
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. MOST LOCATIONS START THE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. BY THE AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES PEAK JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS, AND PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL SPREAD 102-107 DEGREES.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT AND CENTERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
FURTHER INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH WEDNESDAY (LOCALLY HIGHER ALONG THE
COAST). BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS WINDS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. AT AREA BEACHES, BUILDING ROUGH SURF AND A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. HEED THE
ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS, BEACH PATROL FLAGS, AND SIGNS. ENTERING THE
SURF IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!
THE INCREASED FLOW INTO MID WEEK SHOULD GENERALLY BREAK DOWN THE
PERSISTENT SEA BREEZE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THE LOCAL
WEATHER RECENTLY. DEEP MOISTURE HOLDS IN PLACE TUESDAY, FAVORING
MODERATE TO HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS BECOMES ADVECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY, AND THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES (60-80%) BECOME TRIMMED
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN BREVARD, THE TREASURE COAST, AND ACROSS
INLAND AREAS IN VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. DESPITE THE DRIER
AIRMASS, MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS IN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD AT
LEAST FAVOR SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FURTHER NORTH, PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE COAST. MOISTURE BEGINS TO RECOVER THURSDAY, RETURNING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN CHANCES MORE AREAWIDE (STILL HIGHEST
ALONG THE COAST). CONTINUING TO WATCH FOR A LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST
THURSDAY AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES WESTWARD OVER THE
STATE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S ON TUESDAY FALL ONLY A FEW DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, REMAINING SEASONALLY WARM. LOW TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND WILL REMAIN WARM ALONG THE
COAST, MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND NEAR 80 DEGREES.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY... THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN LATE WEEK AS TROUGHING ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PUSH WEST OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW
BEHIND THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ADVECT A COLUMN OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES
AREAWIDE INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 DEGREES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS PRIOR TO SUNRISE GRADUALLY VEER, BECOMING EASTERLY
LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS MOSTLY HOLD AROUND 2 FT,
BUILDING UP TO 3 FT FAR OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE CAPE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERS AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES BUILD LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY... POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS BUILD INTO
MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE 10-15 KTS INTO TUESDAY EVENING,
FURTHER INCREASING 20-25 KTS NORTH OF THE CAPE THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY AND SPREADING SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS RESPOND, BUILDING 6-8 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY
WEDNESDAY, EXPANDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS
THEN IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS WINDS FALL TO AROUND 10 KT
AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT BY SUNSET. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
SUPPORT HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS TODAY, INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, LIKELY JUST WEST OF
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S THERE FOR ANY BRIEF
REDUCTIONS. CONVECTION IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPOS FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS, GENERALLY FROM
20-0Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF LEE
THROUGH AROUND 1Z, AS THEY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR VCSH
INCLUSION NEAR OR JUST PRIOR TO 12Z AT COASTAL SITES DUE TO
ONSHORE-MOVING MORNING SHOWERS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
THE ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR MAY REACH ACTION STAGE THIS
WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER BASIN
EARLY THIS WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE
LOWER BASIN AND ESTUARY FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 90 76 89 77 / 40 10 50 40
MCO 93 76 90 76 / 60 20 70 10
MLB 90 77 89 78 / 30 20 70 60
VRB 89 75 89 76 / 20 20 70 60
LEE 92 76 91 76 / 60 10 70 0
SFB 92 76 90 77 / 60 10 50 10
ORL 92 76 90 77 / 60 20 60 10
FPR 90 75 89 76 / 30 20 70 60
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...WISHARD
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