398
FXUS62 KMLB 160653
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
253 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
- TURNING BREEZY TO WINDY, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE RISK OF HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS
INCREASES TODAY, INCLUDING ROUGH SURF/SEAS AND A HIGH RISK FOR
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
- A WET PATTERN OF ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IS
FORECAST INTO LATE WEEK. REPEATED BANDS OF RAIN AND STORMS OVER
SATURATED SPOTS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS,
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEK.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT... CONDITIONS BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. SUSTAINED EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS 25-30 MPH AT TIMES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS, ALONG WITH POOR TO HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS.
ROUNDS OF ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS COASTAL
COUNTIES WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY REACHING
FURTHER INLAND AREAS. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS TO ADVECT
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AROUND SUNRISE.
THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES NORTHWEST OF I-4 BY LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MOIST LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST AN ISOLATED MENTION ALONG THE VOLUSIA
COAST. A BUILDING MOISTURE GRADIENT FAVORING HIGHER MOISTURE
TOWARDS LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SOUTH OF ORLANDO AND THE CAPE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WANING INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POOR LAPSE RATES TODAY, AND ANY
DEVELOPING STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO BECOME TALL ENOUGH TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF INCREASING DCAPE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS ALOFT. THAT
BEING SAID, GUSTY BACKGROUND FLOW MAY STILL ALLOW EVEN SHALLOW
CONVECTION TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH.
OTHERWISE, STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN FORECAST ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TREASURE
COAST.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON, MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR 90 DEGREES INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 70S REMAIN WARMEST ALONG THE COAST, AND AREAS ALONG THE
BARRIER ISLANDS MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 80 DEGREES.
A HIGH RISK OF LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST AT ALL AREA
BEACHES, ALONG WITH ROUGH SURF. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS, BEACH
PATROL FLAGS, AND SIGNS. ENTERING THE SURF IS NOT ADVISED!
THURSDAY-FRIDAY... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY ORGANIZES
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
PASSING OVER FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. WEAKENS AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, BEFORE
SLACKENING INTO FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE. HOWEVER, DRIER AIR LOOKS TO CUT
COVERAGE BACK A TAD ON THURSDAY, AND ROUNDS OF MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS REMAIN FORECAST MOSTLY SOUTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR. DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN MOISTURE AMONG
GLOBAL MODELS, SUPPORT FROM THE PASSING LOW ALOFT LOOKS TO FAVOR
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90
DEGREES EACH DAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AT ALL LOCAL BEACHES.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY... THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TRACK WESTWARD AND INTO THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
WILL EXTEND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH FLORIDA. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS INCREASE LOCALLY EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. A
CONTINUED SURGE OF INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS ONSHORE WINDS
INCREASE AND BUILD SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FOR THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD WATERS FOR EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS
20-25 KTS AND SEAS 6-8 FT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPANDS SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS INCREASE NEAR 20 KTS AND
SEAS UP TO 7 FT SPREAD ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST WATERS. WINDS
SLACKEN SOME OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY HOLDING AROUND 20 KTS NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE CAPE THURSDAY. SEAS MOSTLY SUBSIDE TO 5-6 FT BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY, BUT SEAS UP TO 7 FT LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GULF STREAM THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MORE FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE FRIDAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS 7-12
KTS AND SEAS SUBSIDING 3-4 FT. A GENERALLY WET PATTERN IS FORECAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND
PASSES WEST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
ISOLD-SCT SHRA WITH POSSIBLY A TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE
THE COAST IN INCREASINGLY ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF IFR REDUCTIONS IN
VIS FROM +RA. BREEZY/GUSTY NE WINDS ON WED REACHING 12-16 KNOTS,
GUSTING 22-28KTS. SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD LIMIT
RAIN CHANCES AT DAB/LEE. HIGHER MOISTURE SOUTHWARD WILL REQUIRE
PROB30 AT MCO AND TEMPOS FOR TREASURE COAST TERMINALS DURING THE
DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 87 76 87 75 / 20 40 30 10
MCO 89 74 89 73 / 30 10 30 0
MLB 88 77 88 76 / 70 40 60 50
VRB 87 76 87 74 / 80 40 60 50
LEE 89 73 89 72 / 20 10 10 0
SFB 88 74 87 73 / 30 30 30 0
ORL 88 75 88 74 / 40 20 30 0
FPR 87 75 87 74 / 80 40 60 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ550-552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ555-575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ570-572.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...KELLY
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