161
FXUS62 KMLB 071714
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1214 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
- HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
TODAY, LINGERING IN THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
TODAY-SUNDAY...WHILE IT IS CHILLY THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE WHERE WE WERE AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. A BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND PERSISTS, PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE COAST FROM MELBOURNE NORTHWARD. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS MOVING
INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH (UP TO 25 MPH AT THE
COAST). DRIER AIR ALSO MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT, LEADING TO LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR (WEST OF I-95).
WHERE DRY AIR AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER NORTH WINDS INTERFACE, FIRE
SENSITIVITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
A COOL, BREEZY DAY IS FORECAST ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND
NORTH BREVARD COAST, WHEREAS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
EFFICIENT TRANSPORT OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
DIP INTO THE MID 30S/LOW 40S INLAND AND THE MID 40S/LOW 50S AT
THE COAST. WINDS VEER MORE ONSHORE AND DECREASE IN SPEED, SO WIND
CHILLS WILL BE LESS OF A FACTOR BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED. DESPITE A COLDER START TO THE DAY,
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW/MID 70S IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS FORECAST HEADING INTO MONDAY,
THOUGH TEMPS WILL LARGELY STAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S AREAWIDE. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE INLAND VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES,
WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 30S.
AT THE BEACHES, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS TODAY. ON
SUNDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 1000+ MILES FROM ECFL (OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN) WILL STRENGTHEN, GENERATING A LONG-PERIOD SWELL. AS
THIS SWELL REACHES OUR COAST, THE RISK FOR LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO A HIGH RISK ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY-FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS, WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND A
CONTINUED (HIGH) RISK FOR LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE THE
HEADLINES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS
ITSELF SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE PENINSULA AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD (TURNING ONSHORE AT THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON). ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST A MEDIUM CHANCE (30-60%) OF
REACHING THE 80-DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OVER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. FROM ORLANDO SOUTHWARD TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE, A NUMBER OF
SPOTS ARE LIKELY (70%+) TO REACH THE LOW 80S MID TO LATE WEEK.
IN THE MID LEVELS, A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVERHEAD,
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ONE OF THESE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SECOND DISTURBANCE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. NO SENSIBLE IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM EITHER. LATER IN THE WEEK, A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING IN OUR DIRECTION. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE NOT
IN AGREEMENT ABOUT THE OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN AND UPPER AIR
EVOLUTION. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR NOW, BUT THIS FRONT COULD
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND ARE FORECAST
TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC. NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO SLACKEN THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN 6 TO 8 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE LEGS PARES BACK TO JUST THE
GULF STREAM WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, AND THIS ADVISORY LASTS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL. AN INCOMING LONG-PERIOD SWELL
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PROLONGING THE DURATION OF 7 FOOT SEAS.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE THEN
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR/SKC THROUGHOUT. WINDS TURNING NE AT THE COAST, REMAINING NNW
INLAND TERMINALS THIS AFTN. FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT. LIGHT/CALM WINDS
LATE TONIGHT; WINDS TURN VRB TO NE UP TO 10 KT ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
A BREEZY WEST WIND WILL VEER NORTHERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS TODAY UNDER 15 MPH,
HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST, MAY GUST 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES (20-25 MPH
AT THE COAST). DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
DROPPING HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE INTERIOR. WHILE WINDS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER, INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
SENSITIVE OR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FIRE SENSITIVE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST SUNDAY, COINCIDENT WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY OVER THE INTERIOR, THOUGH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. NO RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO WORSEN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 41 65 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 43 70 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 45 67 47 70 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 47 69 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 39 68 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 41 68 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 43 69 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 45 70 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ550-
552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ555-570-572-
575.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...HEIL
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