102  
FXUS62 KMLB 181412  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
1012 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2022  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WEAK GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA AS CENTRAL FL IS BETWEEN TWO  
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE GULF AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. THIS IS PRODUCING A LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAT WILL ALLOW THE EAST  
AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON. PW VALUES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY, AROUND  
1.4-1.5 INCHES IN THIS MORNING'S SOUNDINGS AT TBW/XMR. MODEL  
GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THIS MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND INLAND OF THIS  
BOUNDARIES, AND WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION TOWARD THE CENTER OF  
THE FL PENINSULA CLOSER TO SUNSET. HAVE POPS RANGING FROM 20  
PERCENT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TO 30-40 PERCENT WEST OF I-95. MAIN  
STORM THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS  
UP TO 40 MPH. SLOW AND VARIABLE STORM MOTION MAY ALSO LEAD TO  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME SPOTS.  
 
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,  
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 90F  
ALONG THE COAST, AND LOW TO MID 90S INLAND. STRONG VERTICAL MIXING  
SHOULD LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE WEST OF I-95,  
WHICH KEEPS PEAK HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 96-99. WHILE CURRENTLY NOT  
FORECAST TO REACH RECORD HIGHS TODAY, THE FORECAST MAX TEMPS AT  
ORLANDO AND SANFORD WILL BE CLOSE, WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE INLAND  
MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS IT COLLIDES  
WITH THE WEST COAST BREEZE ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TOWARD LAKE  
COUNTY AND THE KISSIMMEE RIVER CLOSER TO SUNSET. TEMPO IFR/MVFR  
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT DUE TO LOWER  
END RAIN CHANCES WILL ONLY KEEP MENTION OF VCTS IN FOR THE INLAND  
TAF SITES FOR NOW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL  
VEER ESE/SE AT 10-15KT BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
FAVORABLE MARINE AND BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY AS  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME ESE/SE AT 10-15 KNOTS  
BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. IT COULD BECOME BREEZY SOUTH  
OF THE CAPE FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED AS SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE QUICKLY MOVES  
INLAND.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
LISTED BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR MAY 18TH AND 19TH.  
 
SITE MAY 18 MAY 19  
DAYTONA BCH 97 1995 94 1995  
LEESBURG 98 1996 94 1991  
SANFORD 95 2002 97 1960  
ORLANDO 97 1930 98 1908  
MELBOURNE 96 1995 95 1995  
VERO BEACH 96 1995 95 1995  
FORT PIERCE 98 1995 97 1995  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 89 71 92 71 / 20 10 10 0  
MCO 95 72 97 72 / 30 20 20 0  
MLB 88 72 90 72 / 20 0 10 0  
VRB 89 70 91 71 / 20 10 10 10  
LEE 94 72 94 72 / 30 20 20 0  
SFB 94 72 95 72 / 30 20 20 0  
ORL 95 74 97 75 / 30 20 20 0  
FPR 89 70 91 71 / 20 10 10 10  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
WEITLICH/HALEY  
 
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