436
FXUS62 KMLB 111857
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
257 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH VALUES
NEAR RECORD HIGHS.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES THEN PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND.
- DETERIORATING BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST LATE THIS
WEEK, AS INCREASING WINDS CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD STILL SEE RECORD HIGHS TIED OR BROKEN
ACROSS SOME IF NOT ALL INLAND SITES (ORLANDO/SANFORD/LEESBURG) AS
MAX TEMPS REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES WILL PUSH INLAND AND COLLIDE NEAR THE I-4 CORRIDOR NEAR
TO JUST AFTER SUNSET, BUT NOT FORECASTING ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR AS AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY (PW VALUES 1.1-1.2"). DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, WITH MILD TEMPS AS LOWS ONLY FALL TO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL S/SW WINDS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT, AND HREF PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A MILE
ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY FOG FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD IT INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP INTO THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FLORIDA IN THE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY MOVES
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. IT WILL
REMAIN DRY INTO MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPS
REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND NEARING RECORDS (ESPECIALLY FOR THE
TREASURE COAST) AS HIGHS REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO REACH LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES
BY MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS IT WEAKENS. RAIN
CHANCES RANGE FROM 60-70% NORTH OF ORLANDO AND DECREASE TO 30-50%
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME. CAPE IS MODEST AROUND 500-1000 J/KG,
BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. INCREASING
W/SW WINDS BETWEEN 925-700MB (UP TO 20-35 KNOTS) AND DRIER AIR ALOFT
MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH. COOL 500MB TEMPS AROUND -10 TO -12C
MAY ALSO ALLOW ANY STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOW AND EVENTUALLY STALL NEAR TO SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS QUICKLY VEER ONSHORE,
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE CONTINUING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES (UP TO 30-50
PERCENT) ARE FORECAST NEAR TO SOUTH OF ORLANDO. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS BRIEFLY BACK TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, UNSETTLED WEATHER ALOFT, WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES, AND INCREASING PWATS CREEPING ABOVE 1.5" WILL MAINTAIN MEDIUM
TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES. POPS 50-70% SATURDAY INCREASE FURTHER INTO
SUNDAY, AS WINDS VEER FROM ONSHORE TO SOUTHERLY AND ADVECT IN THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE OF THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE, AS THE MID-LEVELS MOISTEN AND CAPE INCREASES. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S THROUGH MONDAY FALL
BELOW NORMAL INTO MID-WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN IN THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S. WILL SEE LOWS DROP AS WELL, FROM THE 60S THIS WEEKEND
TO THE 40S AND 50S INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA
TODAY WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND TOWARDS FL EARLY THURSDAY. POOR BOATING
CONDITIONS DEVELOP OFFSHORE AS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15
KNOTS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE INTO TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TOMORROW, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, STALLING SOUTH OF THE CAPE. HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
FRONT MOVES IN, WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE AND INCREASING TO 20-25
KNOTS, BUILDING SEAS TO 6-9 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. COULD ALSO
SEE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE NORTH OF THE CAPE INTO
THURSDAY EVENING AS INITIAL WIND SURGE BUILDS IN. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE STARTING FOR THE VOLUSIA
COUNTY WATERS AT 5 PM THURSDAY AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
WATERS AT 10 PM THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS BECOME ONSHORE FRIDAY AND
DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, HAZARDOUS SEAS
UP TO 7-8 FEET WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY EVENING, WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THESE WATERS THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, AND THEN A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT (RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING TO 60-80%). MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING STRIKES, SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS THEY SHIFT
OFFSHORE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATERS INTO FRIDAY (RAIN CHANCES AROUND 40-60%) AS FRONT LINGERS
ACROSS THE AREA.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS IMPROVE BRIEFLY INTO SATURDAY
AS ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND SEAS FALL TO 3-5 FEET.
HOWEVER, HIGH RAIN CHANCES (UP TO 60-80%) CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUING TO BE POSSIBLE. BOATING
CONDITIONS THEN DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN INTO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO SUNDAY AND INCREASE
UP TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE, VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, PRODUCING HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND, WITH LEE BEING MORE INFLUENCED BY THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING BACK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z. THIS INCREASE IN
WINDS IS THE RESULT OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES INCREASING AFTER 18Z AREAWIDE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA CLIMATE
SITES:
MAR 11 MAR 12 MONTHLY MARCH
DAB 89 1967 90 1935 92 3/28/1994*
LEE 88 2015 88 2001 92 3/26/2023*
SFB 88 1974 90 2001 94 3/20/2003
MCO 91 1918 89 2001 97 3/30/1907
MLB 89 1962 90 1962 93 3/28/1994
VRB 88 1986 88 2023 93 3/31/2020*
FPR 90 1997 89 1948 93 3/31/2020*
*- MOST RECENT OF MULTIPLE DATES
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 66 85 60 77 / 0 70 40 20
MCO 67 87 63 80 / 0 50 30 30
MLB 67 86 65 79 / 0 40 50 30
VRB 66 87 66 80 / 0 40 50 40
LEE 67 84 59 80 / 0 60 30 20
SFB 67 87 61 80 / 0 60 30 20
ORL 68 86 62 80 / 0 50 30 30
FPR 64 87 64 80 / 0 40 50 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ555-572-575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ570.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page