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FXUS62 KMLB 190802
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
402 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2019
DISCUSSION
TODAY-TONIGHT...OVERALL, PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES TO REIGN
OVER THE REGIME WITH AXIS OF ATLANTIC HIGH TILTED ACROSS CENTRAL
FL. DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IS SUPPORTED
ONCE AGAIN, WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND HEATING TO SPARK STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR DAYBREAK, ACTIVITY OVER THE
GULF STREAM/SOUTHERN WATERS INITIATES AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS, ADDING
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO BRUSH THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE
COAST. BY LATE MORNING, THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOPS, LEADING
TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG I-95 THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.
AS THE BREEZE PUSHES INLAND, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOWS, WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS TO 50% WEST OF ORLANDO IN LATEST
FORECAST, WHILE ADDING IN A CHC FOR THE NORTHERN COAST AS OPPOSED
TO PREVIOUS DAYS, DUE TO A S/SW WIND COMPONENT FROM THE RIDGE AXIS
POSITION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A DECENT GUST POTENTIAL YET
AGAIN WITH 500 MB TEMPS HOVERING NEAR -8C, LEADING TO GUSTS OF 50
MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STEERING FLOW REMAINS WEAK, SO
TORRENTIAL RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS IS POSSIBLE, LEADING TO
MINOR FLOODING. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY EVENING, CONVECTION WILL WANE
NEAR DUSK WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR REMNANT
STORMS ACROSS LAKE COUNTY NEAR SUNSET; OVERNIGHT STORMS FOR THE
GULF STREAM WATERS.
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 90S;
WARMEST SPOTS IN WEST VOLUSIA/LAKE COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS COULD CLIMB
TO THE MID 90S. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER HEAT INDICES IN THE 101-105
RANGE DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S, UPPER 70S FOR SOME COASTAL SITES.
WEEKEND...NO NOTABLE CHANGE IN POSITION AND STRENGTH OF BERMUDA RIDGE
OVER THE PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP A FORECAST OF COASTAL
AND INLAND POP SEPARATION WITH HIGHER PCPN CHCS INLAND DUE TO
MID-LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS, WITH SE-S COMPONENT
STEERING LEVEL WINDS. POP CHCS ABOUT 25 TO 30 PERCENT COASTAL
ZONES AND 35 TO 45 PERCENT INLAND. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE L-M 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES 101-105 INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE,
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE M70S.
NEXT WEEK...A MORE PROMISING CHC FOR AREAWIDE RAINS WILL DEVELOP
BY TUE AS WEAKENING OF LOCAL RIDGE IS INDICATED DUE TO A NOTABLE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ACROSS THE SE STATES. THIS WL ACT TO
DISPLACE THE BERMUDA RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHER RAIN CHCS BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY
TUE AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK, AND THIS LOOKS TO IMPROVE THE
DRY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WHERE MANY
PLACES HAVE NOT HAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN A WEEK (SEE BELOW).
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
DAYS, WITH CALM OVERNIGHT WINDS BECOMING SE 5 KTS BY SUNRISE,
SHIFTING EASTERLY AFTER 17Z WITH SEA BREEZE INITIATION. MORNING
ONSHORE-MOVING SHRA FOR SUA/FPR/VRB AGAIN, BECOMING ISO TSRA ALONG
THE COAST IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL PUSH INLAND,
WARRANTING TEMPO GROUPS FOR INTERIOR TERMINALS FROM 18-22Z, WITH
GUSTY, VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR BY 00Z,
LINGERING ONLY NEAR LEE AFTER SUNSET.
MARINE
TODAY-TONIGHT...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SE/S WINDS 5-10
KTS WITH SEAS 1-2 FT. SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL THIS MORNING, TAPERING OFF NEARSHORE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS.
WEEKEND...FAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS WITH DOMINANT SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE MARINE AREA. WINDS LARGELY 6-12 KTS, OR LESS WITH SEAS
1-2 FT.
EXTENDED...EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS CONTINUATION OF FAVORABLE OPEN
WATER CONDITIONS WITH S-SE WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY, AND THEN
DEVELOPING SOME OFFSHORE COMPONENT BY WED. SEAS AVERAGING 2-3 FT,
WITH 1-2 FT NEAR THE COAST TUE-WED.
CLIMATE
NOTABLE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL
MLB...6
VRB...6
FPR...6
DAB...5 ENDED ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY 0.01 INCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 91 75 92 75 / 30 20 30 20
MCO 93 76 94 76 / 50 20 40 20
MLB 89 77 90 77 / 30 10 30 20
VRB 90 75 91 75 / 30 20 30 20
LEE 92 75 95 77 / 50 20 40 20
SFB 93 76 95 76 / 40 20 40 20
ORL 93 76 95 77 / 50 20 40 20
FPR 90 74 91 75 / 30 20 30 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST
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