269
FXUS62 KMLB 220602
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
102 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
- AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING MID TO LATE WEEK
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG WITH ROUGH SURF IS FORECAST AT
THE LOCAL BEACHES ON MONDAY; ENTERING THE OCEAN IS NOT ADVISED
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA,
ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT, ISOLATED SHOWERS BEING POSSIBLE ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH PERSIST, WITH HIGHS
REMAINING ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THE COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ITS GRADUAL APPROACH TOWARDS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT, WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
10 TO 15 MPH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE LOW TO MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO
MONDAY. EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WITHIN THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE
HINTING AT SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE AND TOWARDS THE INTERIOR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S. BY MONDAY EVENING, THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH SHOWER
CHANCES DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. LOWS WILL
PRIMARILY BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE, WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS LAKE
AND NORTHERN INTERIOR VOLUSIA FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S.
WITH THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW, SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES ON
MONDAY, WITH ROUGH SURF, BREAKING WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET, AND A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALL POSSIBLE. ENTERING THE SURF IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED.
BY TUESDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY. WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY ON TUESDAY AND SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. POOR
BEACH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE, WITH RIP CURRENTS
AND ROUGH SURF CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY (PREVIOUS MODIFIED)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MID TO LATE WEEK, KEEPING LOCAL
CONDITIONS TRANQUIL OVERALL. RAIN CHANCES ARE LITTLE TO NOTHING,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE CAPE, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
STUCK WITH THE NBM SHOWING ANY RAIN CHANCES REMAINING PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. OTHERWISE, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER-THAN- NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. THE PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT
AFTER FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES DEVELOP FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. NOTABLE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE
OCCURS FROM SATURDAY-SUNDAY ONWARD, BUT WE SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT BEGINS ITS SLOW APPROACH TOWARDS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT,
DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS DUE TO THE FRONT AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT, RESULTING IN RAPIDLY RISING WAVE HEIGHTS. SEAS
CLIMB TO 6 TO 9 FEET ON MONDAY, WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GO INTO EFFECT STARTING
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS, EXPANDING TO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS CONDITIONS FURTHER
DETERIORATE. THESE ADVISORIES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, GRADUALLY
DROPPING AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE THANKS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SEAS
AND DIMINISHING ONSHORE WINDS AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. A RETURN OF GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST MID TO LATE WEEK ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
MAINLY VFR ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH HREF MVFR
CIG PROBABILITIES ARE 20-40% AFTER 16Z-17Z, REACHING NEARLY 50%
FROM MLB TO SUA AFTER 21Z. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT
(SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT THE COAST) WILL GUST 20-25 KT AT TIMES.
ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS WILL BE EMBEDDED AMONG THE SCT/BKN 035-045
CIGS, MAINLY AFFECTING COASTAL SITES (ESP. TIX SOUTHWARD).
HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR -SHRA REACHING
SFB/MCO/ISM AFTER 15Z. WINDS DECREASE INLAND AFTER 00Z BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED ALONG CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 75 61 76 55 / 10 10 0 0
MCO 77 62 78 58 / 10 10 0 0
MLB 77 64 77 60 / 20 20 0 0
VRB 78 64 77 60 / 20 20 0 0
LEE 77 59 79 56 / 0 10 0 0
SFB 77 61 79 56 / 10 10 0 0
ORL 76 62 78 58 / 10 10 0 0
FPR 78 64 77 59 / 20 20 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ572-575.
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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