055
FXUS62 KMLB 201514
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1114 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2021
UPDATE
ANOTHER RAINY DAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA,
WITH RAIN CHANCES WELL ABOVE NORMAL, AROUND 60-70 PERCENT, FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA, AND EVEN AS HIGH AS 80 PERCENT FOR SOME AREAS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AROUND THE CAPE CANAVERAL AREA. MORNING
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH PW VALUES REMAINING QUITE HIGH AROUND 2.06". SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES FORM AND PUSH
INLAND. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL BE
FAVORED. THE MAIN STORM THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OCCASIONAL TO
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 2-4"
LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING WITH SLOWER MOVING STORMS.
VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN PAST
SUNSET, HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER PRODUCING LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL LINGER WELL INTO LATE THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST FROM BREVARD
COUNTY NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES OVER LAND SHOULD THEN END SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION
SIMILAR TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SOME LINGERING MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS AREAS OF STRATUS
LIFT AND BREAK UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE INLAND MOVING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD, PRODUCING TEMPO
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. GREATEST STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND FROM TIX NORTHWARD TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL BE FAVORED. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
AND PUSHES INLAND. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PUSH OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THE GREATEST STORM COVERAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. STILL, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO FORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LOCAL BUOY 41009 OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS ARE 2 FT WITH
A SSE WIND AROUND 10 KT. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT FOR THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND 2-3 FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4
FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 87 74 87 74 / 70 50 80 40
MCO 90 75 89 75 / 70 40 80 30
MLB 87 76 87 75 / 70 50 80 40
VRB 90 75 89 75 / 60 40 80 40
LEE 90 75 89 75 / 60 30 80 20
SFB 89 74 88 74 / 70 40 80 30
ORL 89 75 88 75 / 70 40 80 30
FPR 88 74 87 73 / 60 40 80 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
WATSON/SEDLOCK
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