382
FXUS62 KMLB 131926
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
326 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2020
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...POCKET OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS SLOWLY
MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS INITIALLY LIMITED SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING, AND
IS NOW LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. IN ITS WAKE,
A POCKET OF GREATER MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PENINSULA
HELPING TO FIRE OFF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS. SOME
OF THESE WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO LAKE COUNTY/ORLANDO METRO OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG
STORMS AS ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE.
STOUT WESTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING AT ALL
TODAY ASIDE FROM THE VERY TIP OF THE CAPE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE COLLISION ALONG THE
BREVARD COUNTY COAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT
EVERYWHERE INTO THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFFSHORE, AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN
THE MID 70S.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY, WHILE AN ELONGATED
STREAM OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY SOUTH OVER OUR AREA. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-4 BEFORE SUNSET INTO THE EARLY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT AREAWIDE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A
MORE FAVORABLE SETUP LEADS TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS.
WEDNESDAY, HIGHER COVERAGE EXPANDS AREAWIDE AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
OVER THE PENINSULA/GOMEX, LEADING TO VARIABLE WINDS AND LITTLE
INHIBITION TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS, A COLLISION
WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH POPS OF 40-50 PERCENT
WEST OF I-95. EXPECT BOUNDARY DRIVEN DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH DAYS,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR JUST A FEW MORE DAYS,
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS APPROACHING 105
DEGREES, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) BY MID TO LATE WEEK, THE
GRIP OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FINALLY RETREATS
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO DEEP SOUTH. AS A
RESULT, THE AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL FINALLY LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD POSITIONING JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL FL, LEADING TO A
SURFACE FLOW SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO EASTERLY BY EARLY THURSDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, YIELDING DIURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE WEST FL COAST. WHILE THIS
REGIME DOES FAVOR ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE COAST, HIGHER MOISTURE
(PW ABOVE 2.00") WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT 60-70 PERCENT AREAWIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE STILL RUNNING MUCH HIGHER AT 80-90
PERCENT COVERAGE, SO WILL CONTINUE TO CAP WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL
INDICATORS OF DEFINITIVE RAINFALL. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
DANCE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA AT VARIOUS TIMES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WHICH MAY OFFER ENHANCEMENT OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE LOWER
90S, LIKELY LIMITED BY SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE EARLY IN THE DAY.
NIGHTTIME LOWS CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. WINDS ARE WSW AT 5-10KT. INCLUDED VCTS
FOR KMLB SOUTHWARD STARTING AT 20Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH,
WILL MONITOR AND AMEND IF NEEDED. TOMORROW, WINDS WILL BE SW AT
5-10KT. INCLUDED VCTS FOR KMCO STARTING AT 19Z, LEFT ALL MENTION
OF VCTS/VCSH OUT OF THE TAF FOR THE OTHER SITES. WILL REEVALUATE
FOR THE 00Z TAF.
MARINE
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS SEAS REMAIN FAVORABLE 2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2-3 FEET
OFFSHORE. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS COULD DEVELOP RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO A VERY LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COLLISION. IF ANY
STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFFSHORE. DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK TOWARDS THE LOCAL
WATERS BY MID WEEK, AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WEST WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL
BECOME EAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, REMAINING AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES LIKELY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 75 93 75 92 / 10 40 10 40
MCO 77 94 76 94 / 10 40 10 50
MLB 76 92 75 91 / 20 40 10 50
VRB 74 93 74 91 / 20 30 10 50
LEE 77 94 76 94 / 20 40 10 40
SFB 78 95 77 95 / 10 40 10 50
ORL 78 95 78 94 / 10 40 10 50
FPR 74 94 74 91 / 20 40 10 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
RODRIGUEZ/KELLY/WATSON
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