354  
FXUS62 KMLB 230823  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
425 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
   
..COOL FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA
 
 
CURRENT...NW WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL FRONT HAS REACHED  
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER  
THE TRUE AIR MASS CHANGE IS LAGGING SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT,  
AND IS JUST NOW PUSHING NORTHERN LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THIS IS WELL  
MARKED BY A SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS, WHICH SEPARATES TEMPS/(DEW PTS) IN  
THE M-U70S/(L70S) FROM 60S/(U40S/L50S) JUST TO THE NORTH.  
 
TODAY-TONIGHT...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH EARLY FALL FROPAS, THE  
SHALLOW POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL ONLY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE  
CENTRAL CWA BEFORE QUICKLY VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW EFFECTIVELY SHUTS  
OFF ADVECTION OF COOLER/DRIER AIR ANY FARTHER SOUTH. BRIEF DECREASE  
IN CLOUDS LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH CWA THROUGH EARLY  
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO  
TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO ENE. WHILE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TS  
OR TWO WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SE 4 COUNTIES, EXPECT DEVELOPMENT AND  
ONSHORE PUSH OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS FROM THIS EVENING ONWARD.  
 
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE U70S NORTH TO U80S IN MARTIN CO. MINS  
WILL SHOW A SIMILARLY LARGE RANGE, FROM M-U60S NW TO M-U70S SE IN  
FRESHENING ONSHORE FLOW.  
 
THU-FRI...RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BUILDS OFF THE MID-  
ATLANTIC COAST INTO LATE WEEK WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING MORE  
EASTERLY. THIS FLOW WILL MODIFY THE DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS IN  
PLACE, WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING BACK ACROSS THE  
AREA. SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE BREEZY  
EASTERLY FLOW, WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STORMS TO ALSO  
DEVELOP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO A  
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS  
REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  
 
SAT-TUE...MODEL GUIDANCE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DEVELOPS  
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT LIFTS N/NE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY  
AND DRAGS A FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE  
STILL EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA BLOCKS THE FRONT FROM MOVING THROUGH  
THE AREA, HOWEVER, WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE  
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH POPS  
CONTINUING AROUND 40-50 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL  
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  
LATEST GFS DOES DEVELOP A DEEPER TROUGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT  
ALLOWS THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO TUESDAY, BUT THE  
ECMWF HOLDS ON TO A STRONGER RIDGE THAT KEEPS FRONT TO THE NORTH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
MVFR-IFR CIGS BKN008-010 BKN025 ALONG AND BEHIND THE  
AIR MASS CHANCE WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH MCO-TIX, BUT IS EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN NORTH OF THE MLB-SUA CORRIDOR. EVENTUALLY, MARINE CLOUDS AND  
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WITH CIGS BKN035-045 PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE  
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING, AND PUSH TOWARD THE INLAND AND NW  
AERODROMES LATE TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT
 
N-NE WIND SHIFT WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH  
THE ENTIRETY OF THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL  
INCREASE TO 15-20KT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5FT NEAR SHORE AND UP  
TO 6FT OFFSHORE. WINDS SHE MORE TO ENE LATE TONIGHT. THE CAUTIONARY  
STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA TODAY,  
AND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.  
 
THU-SUN...RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA INTO LATE WEEK WILL GENERATE A  
MODERATE TO FRESH ONSHORE BREEZE ACROSS THE WATERS, WITH SPEEDS  
INCREASING UP TO 15-20 KNOTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO POOR BOATING  
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6  
FEET. WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND SEAS FALLING TO AROUND 3-5  
FEET SATURDAY AND 2-4 FEET ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 78 71 83 74 / 0 20 50 40  
MCO 82 69 85 72 / 0 10 50 20  
MLB 83 75 84 76 / 10 20 50 40  
VRB 83 75 85 76 / 30 30 50 30  
LEE 80 67 85 72 / 0 10 40 20  
SFB 80 69 85 73 / 0 10 50 30  
ORL 80 69 85 73 / 0 10 50 20  
FPR 84 75 85 76 / 40 30 40 30  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI  
LONG TERM....WEITLICH  
 
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