231
FXUS62 KMLB 220110
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
810 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
- NOT AS COLD TONIGHT, WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND
- LOW RAIN CHANCE ALONG THE COAST INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS TURN
ONSHORE; HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES ON MONDAY
- BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 810 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS ALL OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA, WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING LESS GUSTY ALONG THE COAST.
CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINS PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF THIS
FLOW, WITH STRATOCU DRIFTING ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC. HIGHEST
CLOUD COVERAGE IS FORECAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, THOUGH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND ITS ADJACENT
WATERS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95, WITH LOWS
ALONG THE COAST IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
THRU TONIGHT...GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTN WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET AND WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER NE ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL
BRING MORE STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE COAST AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES BREVARD SOUTHWARD. WITH A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDS AND TRAJECTORY OFF THE ATLC (RATHER THAN DOWN THE
PENINSULA), TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS COLD TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID
40S FAR NW AROUND 50 METRO ORLANDO AND UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 TREASURE
COAST. WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING, WIND CHILL WILL NOT BE A
FACTOR.
SAT...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE PENINSULA, SHIFTING SEAWARD BY SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT MORE CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST IN THE ONSHORE FLOW BUT SOME SUPPORT ALOFT MAY ALLOW
SHOWERS TO PROPAGATE WELL INLAND AS INDICATED BY CAMS. DESPITE THE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS, ESP IN THE MID LEVELS, TEMPS WILL BE MORE
SEASONABLE (ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL) RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S VOLUSIA COUNTY TO THE MID 70S AROUND LAKE O.
SUN...OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS
TURNING ONSHORE IN A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST. THERE LOOKS TO
BE SOMEWHAT LESS CLOUDS THAN SATURDAY BUT AT LEAST SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CU. SO MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. NO RAIN IS FORECAST DURING THE
DAY BUT CLOUDS INCREASE SUN EVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
EAST INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NEXT WEEK (PREVIOUS)...AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST ON MONDAY, REACHING SOUTH
FLORIDA OR THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. 500MB PVA
SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY EVENING WITH A MORE ORGANIZED MID
LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TOWARD THE
YUCATAN. IN THE MEANTIME, A SURFACE FRONT TAKES SHAPE AND BISECTS
OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THIS FRONT DOES NOT
LOOK TO HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES EARLY TO MID WEEK, IT
WILL PROVIDE SOME EXTRA FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS AND WHERE THOSE HIGHER
AMOUNTS OCCUR IS STILL IN QUESTION, AND IT WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW, THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS FOR HIGHER RAIN TOTALS (1"+) ARE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA,
EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND FORT PIERCE/STUART.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD ALSO BUILD OVER THESE LOCATIONS TO
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM OR TWO. HOWEVER, MOST MENTION
OF LIGHTNING POTENTIAL WAS KEPT OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST UNTIL
SOME OF THE DETAILS IN QUESTION ARE SORTED OUT.
DRIER AIR AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS FORECAST. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE 70S
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH
APPROACHING THE LOW 80S ON THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 50S FOR MOST (UPPER 40S FAR NORTHERN LAKE/VOLUSIA). BY
THURSDAY, EXPANSIVE TROUGHING REACHES THE EASTERN CONUS,
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME RANGE, DRAGGING A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
FORECAST INCLUDES A LOW (15-25%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT, BEFORE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WILL LIKELY TAKE A HIT TO ROUND OUT THE LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY,
WITH TEMPERATURES NEXT FRIDAY FALLING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS
WILL GRADUALLY FALL OFF OVERNIGHT AND BE REPLACED WITH CAUTION
HEADLINES INTO SAT, ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM. BY LATE SAT,
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 6 FT THERE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
FURTHER SUN 3-4 FT BUT A N/NW FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL MAKE IT
CHOPPY ESP IN THE GULF STREAM.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH FL MONDAY AND BRING
A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ESP SOUTH OF THE CAPE WITH A LOWER CHANCE
FOR LIGHTNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
GULF AND OVER THE FL PENINSULA TUE AND WED WITH WINDS BELOW 15
KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY CONDITIONS
PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING, WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 03Z AND DOWN TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. NO CIG OR VIS CONCERNS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 47 68 51 68 / 10 20 0 0
MCO 49 70 54 73 / 0 10 0 0
MLB 54 70 55 73 / 10 20 10 0
VRB 55 73 55 75 / 10 20 10 0
LEE 45 70 50 72 / 0 10 0 0
SFB 48 70 52 73 / 10 10 0 0
ORL 50 70 54 73 / 0 10 0 0
FPR 55 73 54 75 / 10 20 10 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ555-570-572-
575.
UPDATE...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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