394
FXUS62 KMLB 171900
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
- COVERAGE OF RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH LATE WEEK; LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH, WHERE HIGHER
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE FORECAST
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS AT ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN
COUNTY BEACHES TODAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK AT VOLUSIA, BREVARD,
AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTY BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS THE
GREATER ORLANDO AREA. LOWER CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH ALLOWING
FOR EFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING PAIRED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE HAS
HELPED THESE SHOWERS EASILY DEVELOP. ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH HAS BEEN
STRUGGLING AS A RESULT OF A PERSISTENT CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS THE AREA,
WHICH HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND THEREFORE, AVAILABLE ENERGY.
HOWEVER, CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS WELL AS INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A LACK OF INSTABILITY
MAY BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT, SHEAR, DRY AIR
ALOFT, AND INCREASING PWATS WILL STILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS
THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING
STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MINOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING OR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, AND A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE
COAST.
ACTIVITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH ONGOING
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. PERSISTENT
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW MAY HELP SOME ACTIVITY MOVE ONSHORE, WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH AS
A RESULT OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE LOCALLY, WITH TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
THURSDAY-WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FORECAST
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. THIS
FLOW WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARDS
THE AREA AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CUTOFF LOW THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US, RESULTING IN A
RETURN OF SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW FOR THE REESTABLISHMENT OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL
MEANDER NEAR TO JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN INCREASING MOISTURE LOCALLY. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH, WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN GREATER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND (30 TO 70 PERCENT). THE
GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WHERE PWATS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE HIGHEST (1.8 TO
2.0"). LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AND THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE TREASURE COAST ON THURSDAY. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT TRAINING ACTIVITY AND/OR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS. BY NEXT WEEK, DISCREPANCIES
IN MOISTURE BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS LEAD TO SOME VARYING POPS, SO
STUCK WITH THE NBM AT 30 TO 50 PERCENT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
STORM DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH DAILY ACTIVITY ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS THE
MAIN CONCERNS ASIDE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATE EACH EVENING ACROSS THE PENINSULA, WITH
ONGOING DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE DAY AND BECOMING LIGHTER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES (50 TO 70 PERCENT) THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS ACTIVITY, AND ANY THAT
MANAGE TO DEVELOP MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING STRIKES,
GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT
REDUCE VISIBILITIES, AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS. ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10
KNOTS WILL BE ENHANCED EACH AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA, WITH WINDS REACHING 10 TO
15 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH BUILDING SEAS ANTICIPATED TO REACH UP TO
5 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS INCREASING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VCSH IS MENTIONED AT MOST TERMINALS TO
START THE 18Z TAF WHILE PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN INCLUDED
AT SUA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER IS LOW TODAY, AND HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM MLB SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH,
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED SOME SURFACE HEATING AND THERE
IS A REASONABLE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS. THEREFORE
HAVE KEPT A LOW CONFIDENCE VCTS AT MCO/ISM/LEE/SFB/TIX AFTER 19Z.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AROUND 04Z WHILE CONTINUED ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS (VCSH) WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO AT SUA (20Z/23Z) FOR VIS
REDUCTIONS IN MODERATE RAINFALL. OTHERWISE, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO
VARIABLE TO INCLUDE TEMPOS AT THIS TIME. EAST WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 9-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, REMAINING VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 72 86 73 86 / 30 40 20 40
MCO 73 89 73 89 / 30 50 20 40
MLB 74 86 75 86 / 50 60 40 50
VRB 72 87 74 87 / 50 70 50 60
LEE 71 90 71 89 / 20 30 10 20
SFB 72 88 73 88 / 20 40 20 40
ORL 73 89 73 88 / 30 50 20 40
FPR 71 87 73 87 / 50 70 50 60
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...LAW
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