567
FXUS62 KMLB 280330 AAA
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2021
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF FL AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN A WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIRMASS AS WE REMAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WITH DEW-POINTS IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 60S.
THE FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES
WERE MADE. MORE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED THAN EXPECTED, SO I'VE
ADJUSTED SKY GIRDS ACCORDINGLY. PERSISTENCE IS KEY WITH THE
FORECAST TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER DEW-POINTS THAN LAST NIGHT KEEPING
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE COMPARATIVELY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY EVEN REACHING A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 316 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2021/
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY... THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH SURFACE MOISTURE FOR A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST-COAST SEA BREEZE, JUST
WEST OF I-95, EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A FEW MORE SHOWERS
COULD POP UP ALONG I-95, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE MAXED OUT IN THE LOW 80S
ALONG THE COAST, WHERE TEMPS ARE NOW MODERATED BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE. INLAND, THOUGH, TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 80S, AND
COULD EVEN REACH RECORD TERRITORY AT LEESBURG (SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR TODAY'S RECORDS).
TONIGHT... DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS SETTLE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEA
FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST. ALL THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE INITIALIZING INCORRECTLY AS MOST INDICATE FOG SHOULD
ALREADY BE ONGOING ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO
DAYTONA BEACH. LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THERE IS NO FOG
ANYWHERE IN THESE AREAS. STILL, JUST LIKE THIS MORNING, PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP OVER LAND IN A FEW SPOTS AROUND SUNRISE, CREATING
SMALL PATCHES OF REDUCED VISIBILITY.
SUNDAY... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
AREA, CONTINUING DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT SOUTH FROM NORTH-CENTRAL FL TO SOMEWHERE AROUND (OR JUST
SOUTH) OF THE CAPE. THIS MAINTAINS SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW,
ALLOWING THE EAST- COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST
AND UPPER 80S INLAND. LEESBURG COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH THEIR DAILY
RECORD HIGH, THOUGH MOST OTHER INLAND SITES WILL FALL ABOUT 1-2
DEGREES BELOW THEIR DAILY RECORDS.
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT (PREVIOUS MODIFIED)... A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TOWARDS CENTRAL FL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON MON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO A MORE
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT ON MON. NEAR RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
ON MON, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER
80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO TIE OR SET A NEW RECORD. CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN, THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT
MAKING IT TO NORTHERN OR CENTRAL FL ON MON NIGHT, WITH THE GFS
MOVING THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA BEFORE
STALLING. THE ECMWF, MEANWHILE, IS THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND STALLS
THE FRONT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
NONETHELESS, THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE AREA, SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OFFSHORE, WITH NO MENTIONABLE POPS
ONSHORE THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL REACH THE
MID 60S WHILE ON MON NIGHT, TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MID 60S TOWARDS THE TREASURE COAST.
TUE-FRI (PREVIOUS MODIFIED)...NORTHERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL VEER ONSHORE TUESDAY, AS THE FRONT
STALLS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TREASURE COAST NORTHWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NOW BOTH MODELS (ECMWF AND GFS) SHOW THE
FRONT SLIGHTLY LIFTING AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA BUT MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT. SO POPS WERE INCREASED ON WED AND DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
AND COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TOWARD SAT.
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN EARLIER IN THE
WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. LOWER 80S ON THU AND FRI AND ON THE 70S ON SAT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHALLOW
GROUND FOG COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. A FEW
TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. HOWEVER,
THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE DURATION AND AREAL EXTENT OF
ANY POTENTIAL GROUND FOG TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
REST OF TODAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS FLORIDA AND
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FL PENINSULA. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THOUGH, SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY, CREATING MORE OF A WIND CHOP. SEAS 2-4 FEET.
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...ATLANTIC RIDGE PERSISTING BUT WINDS SHIFTING
AS THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL FL. SE/S FLOW ON SUNDAY
NIGHT VEERING S/SW ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WINDS
REMAINING GENERALLY AROUND 10- 15KTS, WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THEN,
VEERING N AS THE FRONT ENTERS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT.
SEAS 3-4FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE CAPE
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE FRONT.
TUE-THU...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL THEN STALL INTO TUESDAY,
WITH OFFSHORE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ON TUE FROM THE EAST AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS BECOMING S/SW ON WEDNESDAY
AND FROM THE N AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ON THU.
CLIMATE
LIST OF DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FEBRUARY 27 AND 28.
DATE RECORD DATE RECORD
DAYTONA BEACH 27-FEB 87 1971 28-FEB 87 1971
LEESBURG 27-FEB 86 2001 28-FEB 86 1962
SANFORD 27-FEB 89 1962 28-FEB 89 1997
ORLANDO 27-FEB 89 1962 28-FEB 89 1929
MELBOURNE 27-FEB 87 1977 28-FEB 88 1961
VERO BEACH 27-FEB 87 2007 28-FEB 89 2001
FT. PIERCE 27-FEB 90 2007 28-FEB 89 1977
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 63 84 65 85 / 0 0 20 10
MCO 64 87 66 87 / 0 0 20 10
MLB 68 83 66 85 / 0 0 0 10
VRB 67 84 66 86 / 10 0 0 0
LEE 65 87 67 85 / 0 0 20 10
SFB 64 87 66 87 / 0 0 20 10
ORL 66 88 68 88 / 0 0 20 10
FPR 66 84 66 86 / 10 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...FEHLING
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
AVIATION...FEHLING
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