469
FXUS62 KMLB 242321
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
721 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
- EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, CONCENTRATING WITH
40-60% COVERAGE NEAR AND WEST OF ORLANDO LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 3",
BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40-45 MPH, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.
- THE HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. CONTINUE TO REFRAIN FROM SWIMMING IN THE
ATLANTIC. WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK CONTINUES AS HIGHS JUMP
INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.
- STORM CHANCES DECREASE ON MEMORIAL DAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, A
PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE WEEK, BRINGING
GREATER COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS AREAWIDE TO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...ANOTHER VERY WARM & HUMID AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO POSSIBLY L90S AND PEAK HEAT INDICES 95-100F.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE (AND LOCALIZED MAJOR) HEATRISK CONTINUES. TAKE
FREQUENT HYDRATION BREAKS IF OUTDOORS, AND SEEK THE A/C IF YOU FEEL
UNWELL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL
FL OVER THE WESTERN ATLC ALLOWING FOR A PERSISTENT ESE/SE FLOW. WIND
SPEEDS 10-15 MPH, EXCEPT 15-20 MPH ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH (ESP BEHIND LOCAL SEA BREEZE) AND SOME GUSTS
TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
ACTIVE CONVECTION EARLY ACROSS THE VOLUSIA COAST/ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS AND NORTH BREVARD. THIS ACTIVITY AND CONVECTIVE TREND WILL
SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY (40-60%) OF STORMS INCREASING. BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL
KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVER THE INTERIOR THRU MID/LATE EVENING, WITH
DEBRIS RAINFALL/CLOUD-COVER GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. PRIMARY STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE WIND GUSTS 40-45 MPH
LOCALLY, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL, AND
PROLIFIC RAINFALL RATES FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AS ACTIVITY WILL
BE SLOW/ERRATIC-MOVING. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4" WITH
MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL ISOLD-WDLY SCT SHOWER/ISOLD STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
FORECAST AGAIN ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT; SOME OF
WHICH MAY AFFECT COASTAL LOCALES INTO MON MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S WITH CONDITIONS HUMID.
A HIGH RISK FOR NUMEROUS, STRONG, LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
ALONG WITH ROUGH SURF CONTINUES THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AT ALL
CENTRAL FL ATLC BEACHES. ENTERING THE DANGEROUS SURF REMAINS
STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
MEMORIAL DAY-TUE NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DOES SLIDE FURTHER
SOUTHWARD SLOWLY, BUT STAYS NORTH OF ECFL. ALOFT, MID-LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINS FIRM OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST KEEPING A TIGHT GRIP
OVER THE IMMEDIATE WESTERN ATLC AND FL PENINSULA. WHILE THIS WILL
PROMOTE MORE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA, LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS
PWAT VALUES GENERALLY 1.50-1.80" ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS MORE MOIST
THAN RECENT MODEL RUNS. STILL WE ARE EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE (20-40%
MON & 20-50% TUE) THAN RECENT DAYS. PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
U80S TO L90S WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES WELL INTO THE 90S TO POSSIBLY
L100S (LOCALLY). WARM MINS IN THE 70S TO POSSIBLY AROUND 80F AT THE
COAST/BARRIER ISLANDS THANKS IN PART TO ONSHORE BREEZES HERE. THE
RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITH
COMPROMISED HEALTH CONTINUES. CONSISTENT SERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
WED-NEXT WEEKEND...MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC REMAINS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIDING FURTHER SEAWARD PAST MID-WEEK AS AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO UNFOLD. SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
ALOFT DOES PASS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA LATE WED INTO THU, BEFORE A
BRIEF STINT OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE LATE THU
INTO FRI, THEN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND
SLIDE FURTHER SOUTH/EAST INTO THE WRN ATLC. SE/S FLOW (FINALLY)
BECOMES MORE OFFSHORE BY SAT (PREVIOUS FRI) AND SOUTHERLY ON SAT.
POPS GENERALLY 60-70% (LOCALLY 80%) THRU THE PERIOD. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE PRACTICALLY EACH DAY WITH REPEATED ROUNDS
OF PRECIP WITH MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING CONCERNS.
INCREASING CLOUD-COVER FROM DEEPENING MOISTURE AND RAINFALL
POTENTIAL SHOULD CUT INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT, WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE M-U80S TO AROUND 90F (FEW L90S STILL) ESP
LATE IN THE PERIOD. LOWS CONTINUE WARM IN THE 70S WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING HUMID AT NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS THRU EARLY
WEEK, THOUGH IT DOES BEGIN TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN INTO
MID-WEEK. PREVAILING ONSHORE (SERLY) WINDS WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KTS,
BUT PERIODS OF 15-18 KTS - PERHAPS UP TO 20 KTS AS THE PGRAD
TIGHTENS INTO EARLY WEEK, ESP LATE DAY/NIGHT PERIODS LEADING TO
SHORT STINTS FOR POOR BOATING. THE ECSB DEVELOPS DAILY WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT NEAR THE COAST BEHIND IT AS IT PUSHES INLAND. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS (ISOLD LIGHTNING STORMS) ARE FORECAST, ESP NOCTURNAL AND
DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN, WITH HIGHER COVERAGE BEGINNING WED
AND EXTENDING INTO LATE WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES. THE THREAT FOR
OFFSHORE-MOVING CONVECTION (AFTN/EVENING) INCREASES BY LATE WEEK.
SEAS 3-4 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE
(ESP) DURING TIMES OF WIND SURGES AND LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF STORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
TSRA HAVE PUSHED WEST OF MOST ECFL TERMINALS. BOUNDARIES COULD
PUSH TSRA BACK TOWARDS KLEE AND PRODUCE CONVECTIVE IMPACTS THROUGH
AS LATE AS 05Z, BUT CHANCES HAVE DECREASED. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR
TSRA/SHRA TO REDEVELOP INVOF KMCO/KISM THROUGH AROUND 03Z.
CHANCES FOR ISO- SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA RETURN TO THE COAST AROUND 08Z,
DECREASING AFTER 14Z AT KMLB- KSUA, AND 17Z AT KTIX- KDAB.
INITIAL MORNING CU- FIELD COULD BECOME MVFR AT TIMES BETWEEN
14Z-17Z. LOWER AFTERNOON-EVENING TSRA CHANCES MONDAY FOR ECFL
TERMINALS AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES IN THE CONTINUED FRESH ONSHORE
FLOW, AND HAVE LIMITED TAFS TO JUST VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. SE-ESE
WINDS 7-13 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS INLAND, AND AROUND
15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS FROM KMLB-KSUA THIS EVENING SETTLE TO
5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOME BREEZY GUSTY AGAIN MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 77 89 77 89 / 20 20 10 20
MCO 74 90 75 91 / 10 30 10 40
MLB 79 88 79 89 / 20 10 10 10
VRB 78 89 79 90 / 20 10 10 10
LEE 75 91 75 91 / 50 40 30 50
SFB 75 92 76 92 / 10 30 10 40
ORL 75 90 76 91 / 10 30 10 40
FPR 78 88 78 89 / 20 10 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...HALEY
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