257  
FXUS62 KMLB 032032  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
332 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2022  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
CURRENTLY-SUNDAY... IT'S BEEN A QUIET DAY AND WEEKEND AT LEAST IN  
TERMS OF THE WEATHER FOR EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. WE CAN ATTRIBUTE  
THE DRY PATTERN WE'RE IN TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH  
ANONYMOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM  
(500-850MB) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF  
OF MEXICO. ADDITIONALLY, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER CONUS  
RESEMBLES "SPLIT FLOW" WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET  
ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH THAT'S DIGGING  
SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST. THUS, EVEN WITH AN  
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO REACH NORTHERN FLORIDA  
INTO SUNDAY, THE SETUP WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AS THE  
SYSTEM DECAYS FURTHER OVER FLORIDA WHICH WILL FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS  
THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT- TERM.  
 
ALTHOUGH, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE  
FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE  
ADJACENT WATERS LOCAL WATERS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE  
EVENING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE MAY MAKE ITS WAY  
SLIGHTLY INLAND TOWARDS THE TREASURE COAST WITH GREATER ONSHORE  
FLOW EXPECTED SOUTH OF MELBOURNE. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE  
MID 50S TO LOW 60 INLAND AND WELL TO THE WEST OF I-95 WITH  
SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS (MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES) FORECAST NEAR  
THE COAST ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF MELBOURNE. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
MONDAY-SATURDAY... WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND  
FADE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY GENERALLY REMAINING OVER THE  
COASTAL WATERS INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DRY AND WARM  
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER LAND AREAS THROUGH NEXT  
WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS  
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDS ACROSS FL. WINDS  
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT OUT OF THE N/NE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD,  
AND POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG MAY CONTINUE ACROSS  
THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ON MONDAY  
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 80S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT  
LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 60S.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2022  
 
CURRENTLY-SUNDAY... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE  
OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EAST TO  
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT ABOUT 8-14KTS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH-  
NORTHWEST AT AROUND 6-12KTS INTO SUNDAY. SWELL HEIGHTS ARE  
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4-5FT WITH UP TO 6 FT IN THE GULF STREAM.  
HOWEVER, UP TO 7 FT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE  
WATERS (20-60NM) ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF BREVARD COUNTY THROUGH  
LATE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY,  
MAINLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.  
 
MONDAY-THURSDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS GENERALLY  
EXPECTED INTO THE WORK WEEK. NORTH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY,  
BECOME MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH SPEEDS  
REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 FEET.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2022  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT NORTH  
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 5-10KTS. PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY BEFORE SUNRISE NEAR KLEE, KDAB,  
KMCO, KORL, AND KISM, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO  
INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL WITH THIS TAF SET.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2022  
 
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST POINT AT  
ASTOR WHERE IT REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE FOR THE FORESEEABLE  
FUTURE. THE FORECAST POINT AT SANFORD HAS RECENTLY FALLEN OUT OF  
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND INTO ACTION STAGE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW AND  
GRADUAL DECLINE INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST POINTS AT BOTH DELAND  
AND AT GENEVA ABOVE LAKE HARNEY WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE  
THROUGH ACTION STAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 59 78 61 75 / 10 10 10 10  
MCO 60 81 62 80 / 10 10 0 10  
MLB 65 79 62 78 / 10 10 10 10  
VRB 65 80 62 80 / 10 20 10 10  
LEE 58 80 62 78 / 10 10 0 10  
SFB 59 80 62 78 / 10 10 0 10  
ORL 60 80 63 78 / 10 10 0 10  
FPR 67 80 61 79 / 10 20 10 10  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ552-  
555-570.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ572-575.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...FEHLING  
LONG TERM....WEITLICH  
AVIATION...FEHLING  
 
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