286
FXUS62 KMLB 212321
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
721 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS (CHANCES 40-60%) THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
- DRIER AIR KNOCKS AFTERNOON RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK UP GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK, ESPECIALLY
MONDAY & TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S, BRINGING
BACK WIDESPREAD HEATRISK IMPACTS AND HEAT INDICES UP TO AROUND
105.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT... SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY TODAY HAS ALLOWED AN
EARLIER DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE, ALREADY MOVING IN
VICINITY OF I-95 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS HAVE INITIATED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, PRIMARILY NEAR, NORTH, AND WEST OF I-4. EXPECT
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
EASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION CONVERGES WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA
BREEZE NEAR OR WEST OF ORLANDO AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. SURFACE INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 3,000 J/KG WILL ALLOW
FOR QUICK UPDRAFTS AND TALL STORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS. UPDRAFTS MIXING A DRY LAYER ABOVE 700MB WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS OF 40-50 MPH. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT ONCE ACTIVITY PUSHES
OFFSHORE. LOOKING INTO THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS,
HREF GUIDANCE MAY SUGGEST LOW PROBABILITIES (20-30%) FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MUST ACKNOWLEDGE THE PRESENCE OF A MODELED SURFACE
INVERSION WITHIN RAP AND GFS SOUNDING PROFILES. HOWEVER, GIVEN
SEASONAL TRENDS IN FOG, SHALLOW GROUND FOG SEAMS MOST REASONABLE
AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MUGGY, MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S.
MONDAY-TUESDAY... A MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDES ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. ACCOMPANIED BY MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. A
MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH ITS AXIS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE LARGER "TROUGHY" PATTERN NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA, ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL PULSES OF VORTICITY MAY STILL
PASS ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, A LOOSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN A WEAK RIDGE AXIS NEAR OR OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WEAK WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
REGIME WITH A SLOWER MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. DRIER AIR
SHOULD KEEP LOWER RAIN CHANCES THAN WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN RECENTLY,
AND THE BEST CHANCES SHOULD RESIDE NEAR, EAST, AND SOUTH OF
ORLANDO (~30%) EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS MAY ALSO HINT AT
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE IN VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE ON
TUESDAY (~40-50%). ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST, MOSTLY
RANGING THE LOW TO MID 90S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 90S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES MAY EVEN SUGGEST A MODERATE
CHANCE (40-60%) FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 90S (>=97F)
NEAR, NORTH, AND WEST OF I-4, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME,
DRIER AIR LOOKS TO KEEP PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. A MODERATE TO
MAJOR HEATRISK IS EXPECTED EACH DAY, AND THIS LEVEL OF HEAT WILL
IMPACT THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY... A TROUGHING PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AND A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MIDWEEK.
DESPITE SOME WEAKENING OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN ESTABLISHED
LOCALLY, KEEPING THE FRONT NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. BUILDING
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS (~40-50%) IS FORECAST AREAWIDE
EACH DAY. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. HIGHS CONTINUE TO MOSTLY RANGE THE LOW TO MID 90S ALONG THE
COAST AND MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A WIDESPREAD MODERATE
HEATRISK IS FORECAST WITH MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS BECOMING FOCUSED
ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO AND PORTIONS OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF LIGHTNING STORMS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS. A DAILY
SEA BREEZE PATTERN SHOULD SHIFT WINDS EAST-SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS, INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS AT TIMES. SEAS OF 1-
2 FT SHOULD PERSIST. SCATTERED COVERAGE OF OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO LINGER AT DAB AND FROM MLB
SOUTHWARD, WITH TEMPOS THROUGH 01Z AT VRB, FPR, AND SUA FOR VIS
AND CIG REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA. BEYOND 03Z, LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE FORECAST AREAWIDE ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
WITHIN THE FORECAST. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT AND AMEND AS
NECESSARY. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SW AFTER 14Z ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, DAB, AND TIX, WITH WINDS BECOMING ESE ALONG THE COAST
AFTER 16Z. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEYOND 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 75 93 76 95 / 30 30 10 20
MCO 76 95 77 95 / 20 20 20 10
MLB 77 92 78 92 / 30 20 20 20
VRB 76 93 77 93 / 30 20 20 30
LEE 77 95 77 95 / 10 10 0 10
SFB 76 96 77 96 / 20 20 10 10
ORL 76 95 78 95 / 10 20 10 10
FPR 75 92 76 92 / 30 20 20 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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