435
FXUS62 KMLB 111721
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1221 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
- CHILLY TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S, POSSIBLY UPPER 30S BEHIND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
- A LITTLE LESS CHILLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY THE WEEKEND. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM THE TREASURE COAST
INLAND, AND MORNING FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
- COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN MILD
AGAIN GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...COOL TODAY AND COLD TONIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTH GULF AND COASTAL STATES BEHIND A COLD
FRONT PUSHING QUICKLY BUT QUIETLY THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEPART SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON, LIMITING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S. ALREADY MEAGER MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT BY THE FRONT,
CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO RAIN CHANCES.
OTHER THAN THE WIND SHIFT, THE ONLY INDICATION OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF LOW CLOUDS. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT PICK UP TO 5-10 MPH, MAYBE A LITTLE ABOVE AT
TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN LATER IN THE EVENING.
THE MAIN HEADLINE FOR THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS TONIGHT'S
TEMPERATURES, WHICH ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE
RURAL PARTS OF NORTHWEST VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN LAKE, AND THE LOW
TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE INTERIOR (M40S FOR THE ORLANDO
METRO AREA). LOWS ALONG THE COAST GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S, BUT COULD DIP INTO THE LOW 40S IN NORTHERN VOLUSIA, AND HOLD
OUT IN THE M50S ALONG THE MARTIN COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-4, RESULTING IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES
ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO LESS THAN THE AIR TEMPERATURE. HOWEVER, IS
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO CRASH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE RURAL INTERIOR (VERY LOW, 10% CHANCE) DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS AND DECOUPLING. THESE LIGHT WINDS ARE ALSO CAUSING SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE SPACE AND
TREASURE COASTS. THERE IS A 5-8 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE FIRST
AND THIRD NBM QUARTILES, WHICH RANGE FROM THE L50-M40S, AND A
COUPLE OF CASES MOS GUIDANCE PUSHES DOWN TOWARDS THE L40S. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST VALUES GENERALLY FALL NEAR CURRENT MEAN/MEDIAN
GUIDANCE, AND WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER OR JUST NORTH OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY FRIDAY MORNING, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE,
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE
AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA, BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND SOME SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND SHIFTY FRIDAY, BECOMING ONSHORE SATURDAY AT 5-10
MPH, THEN NORTHERLY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS BREAKS DOWN. HIGHER
MOISTURE STARTS TO LIFT TOWARDS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BRINGING SOME LOW (20-30%) CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FROM THE TREASURE COAST TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE, BUT OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GRADUAL WARMING, FROM COOLER THAN NORMAL
AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE L-M70S, INCREASING TO JUST A SMIDGE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE M-U70S. LESS CHILLY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S-M50S, UP TO THE L60S ON THE MARTIN
COAST, INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL (FOR MOST) TO ABOVE NORMAL
(SOUTHERN COAST) SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE L50S-U60S. COULD BE SOME
EARLY MORNING FOG, BUT GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IF AND WHERE, NOT
MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST AT THE MOMENT.
SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...A DEEPENING SURFACE HIGH DIVE BOMBING
FROM CANADA REACHES THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PUSHING
ANOTHER QUICK BUT QUIET FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING MORE COOL
WEATHER AND SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS. PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
THE HIGH WILL THEN LINGER IN THE AREA A DAY OR TWO AS THE
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US FINALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST, THEN START TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE MIDWEEK AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS IS
WHERE MODELS START TO DISAGREE, WITH THE ECM CALLING FOR A SHARP
CUT IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING A MORE CONTIGUOUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH TRANSITING THE CONUS, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH AN ORPHANED LOBE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US TOWARDS THE
GULF. THE ECM SOLUTION USHERS THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE AND BEGINS
TO DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN US LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS US UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH INTO THURSDAY.
HONESTLY A LITTLE DISAPPOINTED IN THE CURRENTLY FORECAST LOWS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS OF THE U40S-M50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
WHICH ONCE AGAIN FALL NEAR NBM MEAN/MEDIAN GUIDANCE, BUT GIVEN THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND
NORTHERLY FLOW DOESN'T LAST LONG (POSSIBLY LESS THAN 24 HOURS),
THESE VALUES SEEM REASONABLE. MOS IS A BIT MORE ENTHUSIASTIC FOR
CHILLIER CONDITIONS, CALLING FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOWS IN 40S FOR MOST
OF THE AREA, SO THERE IS ALREADY SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS MONDAY ARE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE, FORECAST TO DROP TO THE
M60S-L70S. GRADUAL WARMING EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN MORE MODERATE TO LIGHT WINDS. THE
LITTLE MOISTURE THAT HAD CREPT NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND GETS SCOURED OUT AGAIN, AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS W-NW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS NEARSHORE AND 20-25 KTS OFFSHORE. SEAS IN
THE GULF STREAM WILL BE THE GREATEST CONCERN AS THEY BUILD TO 5-7
FT, POSSIBLY UP TO 8 FT AT TIMES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS
CLOSER TO SHORE GENERALLY 3-5 FT THANKS TO OFFSHORE FLOW, BUT
COULD REACH UP TO 6 FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE TREASURE COAST WATERS
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE GULF STREAM. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A LIGHT SHOWER CAN'T BE
RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER TODAY AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA, ALLOWING WINDS TO
EASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (DECREASING TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE NW IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY THE AFTERNOON), BUT POOR TO
HAZARDS CONDITIONS WITH NW WINDS 15-20 KTS AND SEAS TO AROUND 7
FT WILL LINGER IN THE GULF STREAM THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 7 PM.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OR JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE
IN THE WEEK SHIFTS OFFSHORE, REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TOWARDS FLORIDA
FROM THE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS NORTH OF THE AREA, GRADUALLY LIFTING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTY THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT 5-10 KTS. SEAS WILL HAVE SUBSIDED TO 2-4 FT BY
FRIDAY MORNING, DECREASING TO 1-3 FT BY SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY, BUT LIGHTNING STORMS ARE NOT
FORECAST.
SUNDAY EVENING-MONDAY...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH DIVE BOMBING INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH WILL QUICKLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA,
CAUSING BOATING CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AGAIN. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY EARLY MONDAY AS N-NE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE OVER 20 KTS, POSSIBLY UP TO 30 KTS,
CAUSING SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FT OR MORE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND
8 FT OR MORE OFFSHORE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE, BUT
LIGHTNING STORMS REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT ALL LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NNW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FORECAST AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY. RAIN IS NOT
FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
MIN RHS TODAY FORECAST TO DROP TO 35-45% ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4,
DECREASING FRIDAY TO LESS THAN 40% ACROSS MOST OF AREA, DOWN TO
AROUND 30% NORTH OF I-4. HOWEVER, NORTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH OR LESS
TODAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER
SENSITIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 42 71 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 45 72 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 48 73 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 47 74 56 77 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 43 72 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 43 72 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 46 72 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 46 75 56 77 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ570-572-
575.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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