247
FXUS62 KMLB 051708
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
108 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY. REMEMBER TO NEVER ENTER THE WATER ALONE
AND ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD!
- A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, AS WELL AS
INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS; A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL EXISTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE; A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
CURRENTLY-TODAY... KMLB RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY WEATHER ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. GOES-19 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S. ANALYSIS CHARTS SHOW
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS, IN ADDITION TO, A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND DEEP SOUTH WHICH EXTENDS FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE NORTHEASTERN US COAST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS GENERALLY SLOW EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVING SHOWERS
(~30-80% CHANCE) AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD A COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING STORMS IS BETWEEN 2PM-12AM WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS AREAS FROM MELBOURNE TO LAKE KISSIMMEE NORTHWARDS.
GUIDANCE SHOWS MLCAPE UP TO 500-2,600J/KG, 0-6KM SHEAR UP TO
10-30KTS, PWATS UP TO 2.0"-2.5" (ABOVE THE MAXIMUM PERCENTILE FOR
THE DATE AT 2.39"), AND 500MB TEMPERATURES AT -5C TO -4C THIS
AFTERNOON. LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THE STRONGER STORM
POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS UP TO 35-45MPH, AND HEAVY RAINFALL (UP TO 1-
3"+ IN 60 MINUTES). AREAS THAT OBSERVE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/LIGHTNING STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND LOW-LYING
AREAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90S WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S TO 103F DEGREES ARE FORECAST. THERE IS
A MODERATE HEATRISK TODAY WHICH CAN AFFECT THOSE SENSITIVE TO
HEAT WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... A WET WEEK IS EXPECTED AS A BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE (~1024MB OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/NORTHEASTERN US) UPSTREAM OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC NEAR THE VOLUSIA/
BREVARD COUNTY COASTS, AS WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
FROM THE LOW AND STALL/MEANDER BETWEEN NORTHERN FLORIDA, AS WELL
AS THE MIDDLE HALF OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (60-90% CHANCE) AND LIGHTNING
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
GENERALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS (12PM-2AM).
GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY/CAPE VALUES, MODERATE TO HIGH
BULK SHEAR, PLENTY OF MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES TOWARDS THE MAXIMUM
PERCENTILE), AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT COUPLED WITH
500MB PVA PIVOTING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50MPH, AND HEAVY RAINFALL (UP TO 1-3"+ IN 60
MINUTES). THUS, THE WPC HAS OUTLOOKED EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH DAYS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS RAINFALL TO RESULT
IN FLOODING OF ROADWAYS, AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THAT OBSERVE REPEATED ROUNDS. ADDITIONALLY, NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY COASTS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AT 15-20MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-35MPH OVER VOLUSIA,
NORTHERN BREVARD, SEMINOLE, AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTIES. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S ARE FORECAST.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY... DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND LREF-CLUSTERS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO FILL ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA INTO FRIDAY. THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH TO NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (~50-90% CHANCE) AND
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY (SLIGHTLY LOWER
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ON SUNDAY) WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENINGS. GENERALLY, SEASONABLE TO BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST (WARMEST SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA). ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
CURRENTLY-TODAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO WIDESPREAD
GENERALLY OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE
FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF WINDS TO
34KTS OR GREATER. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN
ONSHORE INTO THE AFTERNOON AT 4-8KTS. SEAS TO 2-3FT ARE EXPECTED.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
INTO MIDWEEK. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DETERIORATE AND BECOME
HAZARDOUS TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS LOW
PRESSURE STALLS NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AROUND THE
VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY COASTS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COUPLE
TO A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS TO 34KTS OR GREATER
EACH DAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN OFFSHORE INTO
WEDNESDAY AT 10-15KTS SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL AND 15-25KTS NORTH
OF CAPE CANAVERAL BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING INTO THURSDAY. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 2-4FT WITH UP TO 5-6FT OVER THE VOLUSIA,
AS WELL AS THE BREVARD COUNTY OFFSHORE WATERS ON TUESDAY. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6-8FT OVER THE VOLUSIA COUNTY AND
BREVARD COUNTY OFFSHORE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS TO 4-6FT
ELSEWHERE BEFORE REDUCING TO 3-5FT ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS RIGHT NOW NEAR OUR COASTAL TERMINALS, BUT THE
FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARD MCO AND OTHER ORLANDO AREA SITES BEYOND 20Z AS
SCATTERED / NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO FORM.
IFR/LIFR CONDS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 KT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AT THE COAST, STORMS APPROACH DAB AND
SOUTHWARD TO MLB BETWEEN 21Z AND 4Z. A FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 73 81 71 81 / 70 90 80 80
MCO 74 85 73 83 / 60 70 60 80
MLB 75 86 72 85 / 60 60 60 90
VRB 74 88 71 87 / 40 50 50 80
LEE 73 82 71 82 / 60 90 70 80
SFB 74 83 73 82 / 70 90 70 80
ORL 75 84 74 82 / 70 80 70 80
FPR 73 88 71 87 / 40 50 50 80
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
AMZ550-570-572.
DISCUSSION...FEHLING
AVIATION...HEIL
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