257
FXUS62 KMLB 032032
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
332 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2022
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY-SUNDAY... IT'S BEEN A QUIET DAY AND WEEKEND AT LEAST IN
TERMS OF THE WEATHER FOR EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. WE CAN ATTRIBUTE
THE DRY PATTERN WE'RE IN TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
ANONYMOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM
(500-850MB) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. ADDITIONALLY, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER CONUS
RESEMBLES "SPLIT FLOW" WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH THAT'S DIGGING
SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST. THUS, EVEN WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO REACH NORTHERN FLORIDA
INTO SUNDAY, THE SETUP WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AS THE
SYSTEM DECAYS FURTHER OVER FLORIDA WHICH WILL FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT- TERM.
ALTHOUGH, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS LOCAL WATERS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
EVENING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE MAY MAKE ITS WAY
SLIGHTLY INLAND TOWARDS THE TREASURE COAST WITH GREATER ONSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED SOUTH OF MELBOURNE. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60 INLAND AND WELL TO THE WEST OF I-95 WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS (MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES) FORECAST NEAR
THE COAST ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF MELBOURNE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY-SATURDAY... WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
FADE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY GENERALLY REMAINING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER LAND AREAS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDS ACROSS FL. WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT OUT OF THE N/NE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
AND POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG MAY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ON MONDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 80S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2022
CURRENTLY-SUNDAY... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT ABOUT 8-14KTS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AT AROUND 6-12KTS INTO SUNDAY. SWELL HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4-5FT WITH UP TO 6 FT IN THE GULF STREAM.
HOWEVER, UP TO 7 FT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE
WATERS (20-60NM) ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF BREVARD COUNTY THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY,
MAINLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.
MONDAY-THURSDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS GENERALLY
EXPECTED INTO THE WORK WEEK. NORTH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY,
BECOME MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 FEET.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2022
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 5-10KTS. PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY BEFORE SUNRISE NEAR KLEE, KDAB,
KMCO, KORL, AND KISM, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL WITH THIS TAF SET.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2022
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST POINT AT
ASTOR WHERE IT REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. THE FORECAST POINT AT SANFORD HAS RECENTLY FALLEN OUT OF
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND INTO ACTION STAGE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW AND
GRADUAL DECLINE INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST POINTS AT BOTH DELAND
AND AT GENEVA ABOVE LAKE HARNEY WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE
THROUGH ACTION STAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 59 78 61 75 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 60 81 62 80 / 10 10 0 10
MLB 65 79 62 78 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 65 80 62 80 / 10 20 10 10
LEE 58 80 62 78 / 10 10 0 10
SFB 59 80 62 78 / 10 10 0 10
ORL 60 80 63 78 / 10 10 0 10
FPR 67 80 61 79 / 10 20 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ552-
555-570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ572-575.
SHORT TERM...FEHLING
LONG TERM....WEITLICH
AVIATION...FEHLING
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