237
FXUS62 KMLB 100701
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
301 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR FOR MARTIN AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES
TODAY FROM 11AM TO 4PM FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 110F DEGREES;
REMEMBER TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY!
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102-107F FORECAST TODAY FOR MOST OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA (108-110F) FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS WEEK
- DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES, FALLING TO 30-40% TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN FORECAST EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... KMLB RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. GOES-16 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ANALYSIS CHARTS SHOW A 594DM
500 MB RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE DEEP SOUTH.
THE 500MB RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 597DM OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA
TODAY WHICH IS AT THE MAXIMUM PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (20-40% CHANCE) AND LIGHTNING STORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLLISIONS
OCCUR BETWEEN SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS
SHOWERS/LIGHTNING STORMS. RAIN RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY AROUND 8PM. HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS MLCAPE UP TO
1,500-4,000 J/KG, 0-6KM UP TO 10-25KTS, PWATS BETWEEN 1.90-2.30",
AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE, THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL
TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-50MPH, AND
HEAVY RAINFALL (UP TO 1-3"). TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO
102-107F DEGREES FOR MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OKEECHOBEE AND MARTIN COUNTIES FROM
11AM TO 8PM FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 108-110F DEGREES. REMEMBER
TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT, DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS,
WEAR LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING, AND SHIFT OUTDOOR WORK AWAY FROM THE
HOTTEST PARTS OF THE DAY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 11AM TO 4PM. NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN LOW 70S TO NEAR 80F DEGREES ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY... THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
WEST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS AS ANOTHER PLUME OF SAHARAN
DRY LAYER ADVECTS OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA MID TO LATE WEEK. ONE
THING TO WATCH WILL BE AIR QUALITY AS THIS OCCURS WITH THE CAMS
INDICATING AN AEROSOL OPTICAL DEPTH (AOD) VALUE OF 0.6-1.25 (VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME HAZE) ON TUESDAY OVER THE ORLANDO METRO. HOWEVER,
THOSE VALUES APPEARS HIGH WHEN COMPARED TO THE GEOS MODEL, BUT
IT'S SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS (20- 30% CHANCE) AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHES INLAND AND COLLIDES WITH A WEAK WEST COAST SEA BREEZE, AS
WELL AS OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS SHOWERS/LIGHTNING STORMS. A SIMILAR
FORECAST IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES (20-40% CHANCE WEDNESDAY AND 20-30% CHANCE THURSDAY)
AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE MID LEVELS. GUIDANCE SHOWS
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH WEAK SHEAR, CONDITIONALLY TO ABSOLUTELY
UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND PWATS BETWEEN 1.80-2.20" WHICH
IS SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL TO
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-50MPH, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL (UP TO 1-3"+). AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (HEAT INDEX VALUES
UP TO AROUND 108F DEGREES) ARE FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY... A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 500MB HEIGHTS WILL REACH
597DM (MAXIMUM PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) OVER THE SOUTHERN
US AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. THUS, THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH
DAY AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. AT LEAST A
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IS EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH PORTIONS OF
LAKE COUNTY IN AN EXTREME HEATRISK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
(20-40% CHANCE) AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BACK ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED
GENERALLY ONSHORE SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST IN THE
LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
5-10KTS ARE FORECAST. SEAS TO 1-2FT WITH UP TO 3FT OFFSHORE
(20-60NM) EXPECTED.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)... FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK. ATLANTIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL START A SLOW SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS EARLY THIS
WEEK AND THEN REACH SOUTH FL MIDWEEK. SE WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW
TUE AND W/SW BY WED-THU. HOWEVER, THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH FOR THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO STILL FORM EACH
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE (SE) NEAR THE COAST AT 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS TO 1-2 FEET ARE FORECAST THIS WEEK. SHOWER AND
LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH
COVERAGE AT 30% OR LESS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING. CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR
CONVECTIVE FORMATION TODAY, BUT OVERALL TRENDS FAVOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING ALONG THE COAST ON THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE BEFORE MOVING INLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH ALONG THE COAST STARTING AT 15-16Z,
AND VCTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR STARTING AT 19Z. HAVE ADDED PROB30
GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA IN THE INTERIOR SITES, STARTING
AT 22Z FOR MCO, ISM, AND SFB, AND STARTING AT 23Z AT LEE.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 92 75 94 76 / 30 10 20 10
MCO 94 76 96 77 / 20 10 20 10
MLB 90 76 92 76 / 20 10 20 10
VRB 91 76 92 75 / 20 0 20 10
LEE 93 77 95 77 / 30 20 20 10
SFB 94 76 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
ORL 94 76 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
FPR 91 76 92 75 / 20 0 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ058-164-264.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEHLING
AVIATION...WATSON
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