662
FXUS62 KMLB 191900
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
200 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, WILL POSSIBLE THE NEXT
COUPLE NIGHTS/MORNINGS.
- HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE CONTINUES WITH INCREASING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- A HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH LATE WEEK. ALWAYS
SWIM NEAR A LIFE-GUARDED BEACH AND NEVER ENTER THE WATER ALONE.
ENTERING THE CHILLY SURF WILL BE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED FOR MUCH
OF THIS WEEK!
- MEDIUM (40-50PCT) RAIN CHANCES AND LOW (20PCT) LIGHTNING STORM
CHANCES FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES
CENTRAL FLORIDA. A VERY SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEHIND THIS LATEST FRONT AS WINTER RETURNS WITH A
VENGEANCE!
- DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED MONDAY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A POTENTIAL MIX OF FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS (MON/TUE NIGHTS),
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY (MON NIGHT), AND FROST ADVISORY (TUE
NIGHT) WILL BE IN PLAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH "BACKING" SE 10-
15 MPH ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ABOVE CLIMO IN THE U70S TO AROUND 80F AT THE
COAST WITH VALUES IN THE L-M80S INTO THE INTERIOR. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT RETURNING TO AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT AT 5 MPH OR LESS
AREAWIDE. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH PCLOUDY SKIES. BIGGEST
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOG/LOW (STRATUS) CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. SEA FOG ALONG THE WEST
FL COAST IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO ADVECT EAST INTO PORTIONS OF ECFL LATE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS DEVELOP AS WELL OVER PORTIONS OF THE COVERAGE WARNING AREA
- ESPECIALLY THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WE CONTINUE TO CARRY PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FOG IN THE GRIDS/ZONES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FOG COULD BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR FOG OR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLAY (AS NECESSARY). MOTORISTS SHOULD STAY ALERT
FOR SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY EARLY FRI MORNING. OVERNIGHT MINS
REMAIN MILD IN THE U50S TO L60S WITH M60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
TREASURE COAST/BARRIER ISLANDS.
FRI-SAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC CONTINUES TO
PUSH FURTHER SEAWARD WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FL PENINSULA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS STILL POISED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTH FL EARLY SUN MORNING. CONTINUED MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST, THOUGH A LOW (20PCT) RAIN
CHANCE WILL BE FORECAST LATE SAT OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY.
SW/W FLOW ON FRI-SAT, WILL "BACK" ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION. HIGHS IN THE L-M80S EACH AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST WITH U80S INTO THE INTERIOR. NEAR RECORD HIGHS
FORECAST EACH DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS. LOWS
CONTINUE IN THE U50S TO L60S, WITH M60S ACROSS THE BARRIER ISLANDS.
EXPECT INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVITIES TO
CONTINUE. THERE WILL REMAIN PATCHY TO AREAS OF (DENSE) FOG POTENTIAL
IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS.
SUN-THU...A BIG SHOCK TO THE "SYSTEM" COMING SUN INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS WINTER SHOWS IT IS NOT DONE WITH US YET! MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL FORCE A STRONG COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY ON SUN. THIS WILL
USHER IN VERY COLD/MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. WE
CONTINUE TO CARRY A MEDIUM (40-50PCT) RAIN CHANCE AND A LOW (20PCT)
LIGHTNING STORM CHANCE FOR THE DAY ON SUN. AGAIN, ONLY BRIEF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL NOT PUT
MUCH IF ANY DENT INTO THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY TO BE BREEZY/GUSTY ON SUN. BREEZY NW WINDS
MAY CONTINUE INTO MON AS HEIGHTENED FIRE SENSITIVITY WILL BE
NECESSARY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL FL TUE OVERNIGHT.
HIGHS SUN IN THE M-U70S TO AROUND 80F ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 WITH L-M80S
SOUTHWARD. MON/TUE HIGHS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER. TEMPS EACH DAY
WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE U50S TO NEAR 60F ALONG/NORTH OF A TITUSVILLE-
KISSIMMEE LINE WITH NEAR 60F TO L60S SOUTHWARD. HIGHS BEGIN TO
MODERATE ON WED INTO THE L-M70S, THOUGH COASTAL VOLUSIA MAY REMAIN
IN THE U60S. ON THU, EXPECT M-U70S NEAR THE COAST WITH U70S TO L80S
INLAND.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, AGAIN, CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER WITH
TEMPERATURES MON-TUE NIGHTS. LOWS DROP MON MORNING INTO THE U30S TO
L40S ALMOST AREAWIDE, WITH COLDEST VALUES ACROSS NORTH LAKE/INTERIOR
VOLUSIA COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH OSCEOLA/NORTH OKEECHOBEE
COUNTIES. WARMEST TEMPS IN THE M40S FOR ORLANDO METRO & MARTIN
COUNTY. TUE/WED MORNINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST IN THE
EXTENDED WITH MINS IN THE L-M30S ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR (U30S
ORLANDO METRO), WITH M-U30S TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE COAST. BARRIER
ISLANDS SLIGHTLY WARMER. THU MORNING WARMER, BUT STILL BELOW CLIMO
IN THE 40S, EXCEPT FOR L50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE
COASTS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED SUN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST MIN WIND
CHILLS/APPARENT TEMPS MON MORNING IN THE L-U30S TO L40S (MARTIN
COUNTY COAST). LOWEST WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT MON INTO TUE MORNING ARE
FORECAST IN THE M-U20S TO L30S (MARTIN COUNTY COAST). PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FROST GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVERNIGHT TUE INTO WED
MORNING WHEN HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS ARE
LIGHTEST (BELOW 5 MPH). A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS LIKELY NEARLY
AREAWIDE FOR MON OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR SOME COUNTIES MON/TUE OVERNIGHTS. A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR TUE OVERNIGHT WHERE A FREEZE
WARNING IS NOT IN PLACE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
S/SW/W WINDS AOB 15 KTS THRU SAT NIGHT, EXCEPT "BACKING" ONSHORE
ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION. A
PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD NE SWELL CONTINUES TO KEEP SEAS 3-5 FT FOR
NOW. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT INTO FRI EVENING, THEN AOB 3 FT THRU
SAT NIGHT. BOTH WINDS/SEAS BEGIN TO RAMP UP THRU THE DAY ON
SUN/SUN NIGHT BECOMING HAZARDOUS WITH APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE MET SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR TO HAZARDOUS FOR BOATING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF (LOCALLY DENSE)
FOG CONCERNS NEAR THE VOLUSIA/NORTH BREVARD COASTS EACH OF THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
GENERALLY DRY THRU SAT WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES SAT NIGHT (NORTH).
SCT-NMRS (40-60%) RAIN CHANCES WITH ISOLD (20%) LIGHTNING STORM
CHANCES AREAWIDE ON SUN WITH ACCOMPANYING FRONT. GENERALLY DRY
MON/TUE, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER WELL OFFSHORE.
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT INLETS ACROSS THE SPACE/TREASURE
COASTS DURING THE TWICE DAILY OUTGOING TIDE. SMALL CRAFT BOATERS
WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION HERE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
SW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOME MORE SE FROM MLB SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. WINDS THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM BEYOND 00Z. FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH CURRENT
GUIDANCE FAVORING VIS REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TERMINALS AND
DAB. STILL TOO EARLY TO ADD TEMPOS, SO HEDGED VIS TO 6SM AND
MAINTAINED SCT WORDING FOR CIGS AT FL008 AT 06Z. MVFR/IFR TEMPOS
LIKELY NEEDED WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES, WITH CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE AROUND 15Z ON FRIDAY. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF
THE SW INTO FRIDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS. DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING TO
FLORIDA SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, PRODUCING
GENERALLY OFFSHORE (S-SW) WINDS, BECOMING MORE W-SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT SHIFTS S-SE ALONG THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AS THE SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES SLOWLY INLAND. WINDS SPEEDS 5-10 MPH,
CLOSER TO THE UPPER END BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM, SETTLE TO 5 MPH OR
LESS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS. GRADUAL WARMING CAUSES HUMIDITY VALUES
TO SLOWLY DECREASE, WITH MIN RHS 40-55% THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING 35-
55% FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AFTERNOON DISPERSION VALUES GENERALLY VERY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT, BUT COULD BE MORE FAIR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
SENSITIVE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA SUNDAY, PRECEDED BY SOME MODEST (40-50%) RAIN CHANCES, AND
LOW (AROUND 20%) CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING STORMS DURING THE DAY.
BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30
MPH. MIN RHS RECOVER A BIT SUNDAY EARLY, BUT IF DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
QUICKER WE COULD SEE 35-40% MIN RH VALUES LATER SUN AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE I-4 CORRIDOR WHICH COULD BE NEAR OR AT RED FLAG CRITERIA. FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME CRITICAL MONDAY AS MIN RHS
CRASH TO 20-30% AREAWIDE WHILE NW WINDS REMAIN 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
20-25 MPH, POSSIBLY TO 30 MPH. LIGHTER WINDS INTO TUE, BUT
CRITICALLY LOW MIN RHS WILL BE FORECAST STILL NEARLY AREAWIDE.
AFTERNOON DISPERSION VALUES VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT INTO THE WEEKEND.
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PATCHY TO AREAS OF (DENSE) FOG ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THE NEXT 2 TO 3 MORNINGS. CONDITIONS ALSO REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR LOW STRATUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EACH MORNING AS WELL.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
RECORD HIGHS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 20TH/21ST:
RECORD RECORD NORMAL
DATE HIGH DATE HIGH HI
DAB 20-FEB 85 1988 21-FEB 87 1989 72
LEE 20-FEB 86 2018 21-FEB 87 2018 74
SFB 20-FEB 86 2019 21-FEB 87 2003 75
MCO 20-FEB 89 1988 21-FEB 88 1989 76
MLB 20-FEB 86 1988 21-FEB 88 1989 75
VRB 20-FEB 88 2023 21-FEB 87 2014 76
FPR 20-FEB 88 1932 21-FEB 89 1989 76
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 60 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 62 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 60 84 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 60 84 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 62 85 61 85 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 62 87 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 63 87 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 59 84 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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