132
FXUS62 KMLB 201739
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
139 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, GENERALLY FROM SOUTH BREVARD SOUTHWARD TODAY.
- FREQUENTLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY AND
GRADUALLY COOLER AIR. THE BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE,
AGAIN, ON TUESDAY.
- BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AND REMAIN POOR
TO HAZARDOUS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FL
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTY N/NNE WINDS BEHIND IT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS OVER THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS
AND A SMALL THREAT EXISTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL
COUNTIES FOR SHOWERS AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM, TOO. AS
WE MOVE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS
ARE FORECAST - MAINLY FROM AROUND SOUTH BREVARD SOUTHWARD. HIGHEST
POPS 30-50% FOR THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.
SUSTAINED (BREEZY/WINDY) NE WINDS WILL APPROACH 15-22 MPH
AREAWIDE WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS (25-30 MPH AND PERHAPS TO 35
MPH WITH STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG THE COAST). SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE
MAINLY CLOUDY, WITH PERHAPS SOME RELIEF IN CLOUD CEILINGS ACROSS
THE I-4 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS IN STORE WITH M-
U70S ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY NEAR 80F TO L80S WELL INTO THE
INTERIOR. MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING SKIES (NORTH TO
SOUTH) AND LOWER MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT MINS TO
FALL INTO THE U50S TO AROUND 60F ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND L-M60S
NEAR THE COAST. MAY SEE TEMPS REALIZE M50S FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH
LAKE AND NW VOLUSIA, WITH SOME U60S FOR IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST.
EXPECT HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY TODAY
CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. AT THE BEACHES, A STRONG SOUTHWARD-
FLOWING LONGSHORE CURRENT WILL DEVELOP WITH ROUGH SURF LIKELY. A
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR NUMEROUS, STRONG, LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE PRESENT AT ALL CENTRAL FL ATLC BEACHES TODAY.
ENTERING THE DANGEROUS SURF IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!
TUE-SUN...ALOFT, WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
TRANSLATES SLOWLY EASTWARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THEN WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE REGION THRU LATE WORK-WEEK. AT THE SURFACE,
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC PAST MID-WEEK, WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA. GENERALLY DRIER
AIR INTO MID-WEEK WITH A STABLE MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW INTO LATE WEEK. BREEZY/GUSTY (NE/ENE) WINDS
CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST, AGAIN, FOR TUE. WE KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY
DRY THRU THE EXTENDED, BUT MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A LOW POP ON
WED/THU WITH POTENTIAL LOW-TOPPED, ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS, SUGGESTED
BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PATTERN LOOKS TO
LIE ACROSS ECFL FRI-SUN, WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS AND A BIT MORE
VARIABILITY IN DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT. WE MAY SEE AN ISOLD CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND WITH A BUMP UP IN PWATS AND DAILY SEA BREEZE
COLLISIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
MORE SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS INTO MID-WEEK, WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW - U70S
COAST AND L80S INTERIOR THRU THU, THEN A WARM-UP ENSUES FRI-SUN WITH
MAX VALUES APPROACHING M-U80S AND POTENTIAL 90F OVER THE INTERIOR.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COASTAL AREAS IN THE 60S FOR
MINS, AND DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO THE M-
U50S THRU FRI MORNING, WITH 60S RETURNING ALMOST AREAWIDE SAT &
SUN MORNINGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
RAPID DETERIORATION FOR BOATING CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD AND N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25
KTS WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE TO THE WINDS, 7-10 FT GULF STREAM AND 5-7 FT NEAR SHORE.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS MORNING
AREAWIDE. GUSTY NE/ENE WINDS CONTINUE INTO TUE WITH A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE AND WE WILL GRADUALLY CUT BACK ON THE SCA (NORTH TO
SOUTH) TUE/TUE NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING MID TO LATE
WEEK. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY ONSHORE FOR MUCH OF THE WORK-WEEK.
POOR BOATING MAY CONTINUE SOUTHWARD INTO TUE EVENING AS SEAS STILL
SLOWLY DECREASE, WITH SEAS BECOMING 3-5 FT ON WED AND AOB 3 FT
AREAWIDE DURING THE DAY ON THU INTO FRI.
SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT STORMS WILL BE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS, BECOMING CONCENTRATED CAPE SOUTHWARD BY MID MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE TONIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE BREVARD AND
TREASURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, CLOUD BASES HAVE LIFTED
TO VFR THRESHOLDS. BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY, DIMINISHING TO 7-12 KTS LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 18-20 KTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS
CONTINUE NEAR THE TREASURE COAST TERMINALS WITH VCSH MENTIONED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
FORECAST AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
HEIGHTENED FIRE SENSITIVITY THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AS NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH - POTENTIALLY TO 35 MPH, STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG THE COAST.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STORMS ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH GREATEST PRECIP
CHANCES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, TYPICALLY SOUTH OF A MELBOURNE TO
KENANSVILLE LINE. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSION TODAY. MIN RH
VALUES MAY FALL TO 35-45% THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-4 AS CLOUD-COVER BEGINS TO THIN AND DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH
BEHIND THE LATEST FRONT.
BREEZY, GUSTY, NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS (~ 15 MPH), AGAIN,
ON TUESDAY. LOWEST AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES FALL TO 28-35% ACROSS I-4
AND WELL INTO THE INTERIOR SOUTH OF HERE. NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST ON THIS DAY. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSION WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE CONTROL CONCERNS. FOR AWARENESS, WILL HOIST A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR INTERIOR VOLUSIA, LAKE, SEMINOLE, ORANGE, OSCEOLA,
AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES.
ONSHORE WINDS GRADUALLY SLACKEN MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT RH
RECOVERY - THOUGH LOWEST RHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL STILL REALIZE
35-45%.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 62 78 60 78 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 62 81 60 80 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 67 78 65 78 / 0 0 0 10
VRB 65 78 63 78 / 10 0 0 10
LEE 57 82 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 59 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 62 81 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 65 78 63 78 / 10 0 0 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ041-
044>046-053-058-144.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ555-575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ572.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...LAW
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