580
FXUS62 KMLB 080235
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1035 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME RELIEF TO ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXISTS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK, WITH A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WHILE RAINFALL WILL INITIALLY BE BENEFICIAL, THE THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS ANY
AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 1 AM OR SO AS
THEY MOVE EASTWARD. THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS LOWERED SO
THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY
RAIN. EARLIER BOUNDARY COLLISION STRETCHED FROM INTERIOR VOLUSIA
S/SW ACROSS SEMINOLE, CENTRAL ORANGE AND NW OSCEOLA COUNTIES. SLOW
MOVING STORMS PRODUCED LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RADAR
ESTIMATING NEAR 3 INCHES NEAR OVIEDO AND ALSO NEAR MEADOW WOODS
NEAR OIA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ARE
MOVING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON, AND A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES.
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURRING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD
SUNSET INLAND TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
COLLISION IS FAVORED (POPS UP TO 50-60 PERCENT). A WEAK WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW MAY SHIFT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION BACK TOWARD THE
COAST OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE
TEMPS ALOFT ARE A LITTLE WARMER TODAY (-8 TO -10C AT 500MB) AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR, THERE IS STILL SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND LINGERING DRY MID LEVEL AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A
FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING, BETWEEN 4-9 PM. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN ADDED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM AROUND NORTHERN OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTIES
NORTHWARD THROUGH LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES. MAIN THREATS WILL BE
STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-60 MPH, HAIL UP TO
AN INCH IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1-3 INCHES.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING, WITH RAIN
CHANCES ENDING OVERNIGHT OVER LAND. HOWEVER, COULD STILL SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH LATE WEEK, BEFORE SHIFTING BACK
SOUTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL FL. A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH GREATEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES (UP TO 60-70%) FOCUSED NORTH OF OKEECHOBEE AND THE
TREASURE COAST. A RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND EACH AFTERNOON,
WITH SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
AND PUSHING BACK TOWARD AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW INCREASES. THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST, AND THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER NOW ACROSS MUCH OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON THURSDAY, AND ACROSS AREAS FROM BREVARD
AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. MAIN THREATS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-60
MPH, HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-3 INCHES.
IN TERMS OF OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THE FORECAST CURRENTLY CALLS
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF UP TO 1-3 INCHES FROM BREVARD/OSCEOLA
COUNTIES NORTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH
TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF STORMS THESE
TOTALS WILL CERTAINLY VARY. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH STORMS, RAINFALL SHOULD INITIALLY BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO
ONGOING MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASED CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS ANY AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND SOUTHEASTERN
US SHIFTING OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND MIDSOUTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US SUNDAY TO
TUESDAY. HIGH RAIN CHANCES, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, IN
ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST STRONG STORMS ARE FORECAST
EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
KNOW FOR SURE, BUT THE SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY,
MONDAY, AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA BY MONDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S ARE FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE THROUGH LATE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, SCATTERED TO AT TIME NUMEROUS
OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE, PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30-50 KNOTS, HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 15
KNOTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, BEFORE THEY INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN INTO MONDAY. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY, BUILDING TO 3-4 FEET LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY UP TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS FROM SFB-
ISM THROUGH 01Z CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY
WINDS. SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT DAB-TIX THRU 02Z OR SO THEN VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. ON THU, S/SW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL TURN
ONSHORE AT COASTAL TERMINALS BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BTWN 16Z-18Z.
HAVE INSERTED VCTS AFT 20Z FOR MOST TERMINALS (EXCEPT LEE).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 69 88 68 87 / 50 70 40 70
MCO 71 91 70 89 / 50 70 40 70
MLB 70 87 69 87 / 30 50 30 60
VRB 69 88 69 88 / 20 30 20 50
LEE 71 90 70 88 / 30 60 30 60
SFB 69 92 69 90 / 50 70 40 70
ORL 71 91 70 90 / 50 70 40 70
FPR 69 88 69 88 / 10 30 20 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...KELLY
AVIATION...KELLY
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