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FXUS62 KMLB 190802  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
402 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
TODAY-TONIGHT...OVERALL, PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES TO REIGN  
OVER THE REGIME WITH AXIS OF ATLANTIC HIGH TILTED ACROSS CENTRAL  
FL. DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IS SUPPORTED  
ONCE AGAIN, WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND HEATING TO SPARK STRONG  
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR DAYBREAK, ACTIVITY OVER THE  
GULF STREAM/SOUTHERN WATERS INITIATES AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS, ADDING  
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO BRUSH THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE  
COAST. BY LATE MORNING, THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOPS, LEADING  
TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG I-95 THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.  
AS THE BREEZE PUSHES INLAND, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TSTORMS WILL  
DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOWS, WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR.  
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS TO 50% WEST OF ORLANDO IN LATEST  
FORECAST, WHILE ADDING IN A CHC FOR THE NORTHERN COAST AS OPPOSED  
TO PREVIOUS DAYS, DUE TO A S/SW WIND COMPONENT FROM THE RIDGE AXIS  
POSITION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A DECENT GUST POTENTIAL YET  
AGAIN WITH 500 MB TEMPS HOVERING NEAR -8C, LEADING TO GUSTS OF 50  
MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STEERING FLOW REMAINS WEAK, SO  
TORRENTIAL RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS IS POSSIBLE, LEADING TO  
MINOR FLOODING. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY EVENING, CONVECTION WILL WANE  
NEAR DUSK WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR REMNANT  
STORMS ACROSS LAKE COUNTY NEAR SUNSET; OVERNIGHT STORMS FOR THE  
GULF STREAM WATERS.  
 
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 90S;  
WARMEST SPOTS IN WEST VOLUSIA/LAKE COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS COULD CLIMB  
TO THE MID 90S. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER HEAT INDICES IN THE 101-105  
RANGE DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO  
MID 70S, UPPER 70S FOR SOME COASTAL SITES.  
 
WEEKEND...NO NOTABLE CHANGE IN POSITION AND STRENGTH OF BERMUDA RIDGE  
OVER THE PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP A FORECAST OF COASTAL  
AND INLAND POP SEPARATION WITH HIGHER PCPN CHCS INLAND DUE TO  
MID-LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS, WITH SE-S COMPONENT  
STEERING LEVEL WINDS. POP CHCS ABOUT 25 TO 30 PERCENT COASTAL  
ZONES AND 35 TO 45 PERCENT INLAND. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE L-M 90S  
WITH HEAT INDICES 101-105 INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE,  
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE M70S.  
 
NEXT WEEK...A MORE PROMISING CHC FOR AREAWIDE RAINS WILL DEVELOP  
BY TUE AS WEAKENING OF LOCAL RIDGE IS INDICATED DUE TO A NOTABLE  
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ACROSS THE SE STATES. THIS WL ACT TO  
DISPLACE THE BERMUDA RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE  
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHER RAIN CHCS BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY  
TUE AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK, AND THIS LOOKS TO IMPROVE THE  
DRY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WHERE MANY  
PLACES HAVE NOT HAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN A WEEK (SEE BELOW).  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
GENERALLY VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS  
DAYS, WITH CALM OVERNIGHT WINDS BECOMING SE 5 KTS BY SUNRISE,  
SHIFTING EASTERLY AFTER 17Z WITH SEA BREEZE INITIATION. MORNING  
ONSHORE-MOVING SHRA FOR SUA/FPR/VRB AGAIN, BECOMING ISO TSRA ALONG  
THE COAST IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL PUSH INLAND,  
WARRANTING TEMPO GROUPS FOR INTERIOR TERMINALS FROM 18-22Z, WITH  
GUSTY, VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR BY 00Z,  
LINGERING ONLY NEAR LEE AFTER SUNSET.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
TODAY-TONIGHT...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT  
WITH RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SE/S WINDS 5-10  
KTS WITH SEAS 1-2 FT. SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF CAPE  
CANAVERAL THIS MORNING, TAPERING OFF NEARSHORE THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS.  
 
WEEKEND...FAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS WITH DOMINANT SURFACE RIDGE  
OVER THE MARINE AREA. WINDS LARGELY 6-12 KTS, OR LESS WITH SEAS  
1-2 FT.  
 
EXTENDED...EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS CONTINUATION OF FAVORABLE OPEN  
WATER CONDITIONS WITH S-SE WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY, AND THEN  
DEVELOPING SOME OFFSHORE COMPONENT BY WED. SEAS AVERAGING 2-3 FT,  
WITH 1-2 FT NEAR THE COAST TUE-WED.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
NOTABLE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL  
 
MLB...6  
VRB...6  
FPR...6  
DAB...5 ENDED ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY 0.01 INCH  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 91 75 92 75 / 30 20 30 20  
MCO 93 76 94 76 / 50 20 40 20  
MLB 89 77 90 77 / 30 10 30 20  
VRB 90 75 91 75 / 30 20 30 20  
LEE 92 75 95 77 / 50 20 40 20  
SFB 93 76 95 76 / 40 20 40 20  
ORL 93 76 95 77 / 50 20 40 20  
FPR 90 74 91 75 / 30 20 30 30  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...SMITH  
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST  
 
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