861
FXUS62 KMLB 121905
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
305 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING, BEGINNING SEVERAL DAYS OF MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STORMS.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH. STRONGEST GUSTS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF VOLUSIA AND
BREVARD COUNTIES.
- HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, AND CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES, AND
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S (NEARING
RECORDS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST). SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS
HAS INCREASED MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG, BUT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER WEAK. STILL THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A STRONGER STORM OR TWO
STILL CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO
40-45 MPH THE MAIN THREAT, MAINLY NEAR TO NORTH OF ORLANDO WHERE
W/SW LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER. LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY
STORMS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A SURGE IN N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL
CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH EVEN ACROSS INLAND AREAS,
WITH SPEEDS 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. THERE IS EVEN A 30-40% CHANCE FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COUNTIES. HOWEVER, SHOULD ANY OF THESE HIGHER GUSTS OCCUR, THEY WILL
BE BRIEF AND WILL THEREFORE NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE
COASTAL LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES AND WINDS SPEEDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT,
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS DECREASING TO 10-15 MPH. THERE WILL NOT BE A
LARGE CHANGE IN TEMPS BEHIND THIS FRONT, WITH MIN TEMPS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY STILL NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NW OF I-4
AND IN THE 60S TO THE SOUTH.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF CENTRAL FL INTO FRIDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE (PW UP TO 1.2-1.4") WILL
CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF
ORLANDO (RAIN CHANCES 20-40%). ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED
CAPE WILL INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE
TREASURE COAST, SO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THIS REGION. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM, BUT WILL STILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND FADES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ONSHORE WINDS SATURDAY BECOMING S/SE INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING MOISTURE AND A RISE IN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. GREATEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF ORLANDO INTO SATURDAY, UP TO 60-
70%, BUT EVEN NEAR TO NORTH OF ORLANDO POPS WILL RANGE FROM 30-50%.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR, MAINLY INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL THEN OCCUR INTO SUNDAY (RAIN CHANCES UP TO 70-80%), AS PW
VALUES RISE TO 1.5-1.7" AND WEAK S/W ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
COLD TEMPERATURES AT 500MB NEAR -12 TO -13C AND LINGERING DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SOME STRONGER STORMS EACH DAY, WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK TO
REMAIN AROUND 1-1.5", BUT ISOLATED TOTALS NEAR 2" CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. ANY RAIN WILL CERTAINLY HELP AS SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) A STOUT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK,
DRAGGING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH RAIN CHANCES (AROUND 70-80%) PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY, BEFORE DRIER AIR AND LOWER POPS (20-40%) DEVELOP INTO MID-
WEEK. BREEZY WINDS RETURN, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW VEERING ONSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S MONDAY WILL SEE A
SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOST AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 60S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. NOTICEABLY CHILLIER LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, FALLING INTO
THE 40S AND 50S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
THIS AFTERNOON-FRIDAY...WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS AS THEY SHIFT OFFSHORE.
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSING
FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A SURGE IN N/NE WINDS UP TO 20-30
KNOTS QUICKLY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS VERY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS
EVENING AS THE SURGE INITIALLY BUILDS IN. NO CHANGES IN START TIME
WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, BEGINNING FOR THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS AT 5 PM AND EXPANDING TO THE REST OF THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS AT 10 PM. WINDS DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT, WITH A CONTINUING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST BREEZE
AROUND 15-25 KNOTS BUILDING SEAS UP TO 6-9 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
E/NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY FROM 15-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING
TO 10-15 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE,
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUING FOR THE GULF STREAM WATERS
FOR WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 7-9 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVE INTO SATURDAY,
WITH ONSHORE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS FALLING TO 3-5 FEET.
HOWEVER, BOATING CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST TO DETERIORATE LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A PASSING STRONGER
COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE UP TO 15-20 KNOTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY, AND THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO 20-25 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 7-10 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY.
MEDIUM TO HIGH SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE NEXT PASSING FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DECAYING (INTENSITY) BAND
OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS PRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE I-4
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON, CONTINUING SOUTHWARD LATE DAY AND
EVENING. WHILE SW/W WINDS WILL BE BREEZY/GUSTY ALREADY, WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER NW/N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW-HOUR PERIOD IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT
THAT MAY HAVE THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS (IN EXCESS OF 25-30 KTS),
WITH SPEEDS GRADUALLY DECREASING THRU THE NIGHT. A 1-3HR PERIOD OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT ANY TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORM
THREATS INCLUDE LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35
KTS, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS. INDIVIDUAL STORM STEERING FLOW IS OUT
OF THE W AT 25-30 KTS AS THIS ACTIVITY DROPS SOUTH/EAST. SOME
MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT MAY BE SLOW TO
LIFT DURING THE DAY ON FRI. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER NE/E THRU THE
DAY ON FRI WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA CLIMATE
SITES:
MAR 12 MONTHLY MARCH
DAB 90 1935 92 3/28/1994*
LEE 88 2001 92 3/26/2023*
SFB 90 2001 94 3/20/2003
MCO 89 2001 97 3/30/1907
MLB 90 1962 93 3/28/1994
VRB 88 2023 93 3/31/2020*
FPR 89 1948 93 3/31/2020*
*- MOST RECENT OF MULTIPLE DATES
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 60 77 62 79 / 30 10 10 30
MCO 62 79 65 80 / 30 10 10 50
MLB 65 78 66 80 / 50 20 30 50
VRB 66 79 65 81 / 50 20 40 60
LEE 58 80 62 81 / 20 10 10 40
SFB 60 79 62 81 / 30 10 10 40
ORL 61 79 65 81 / 30 10 10 50
FPR 65 80 64 81 / 50 30 40 60
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ555-572-575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ570.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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