130
FXUS62 KMLB 211138
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
738 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
- A NEARLY STATIONARY DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL HELP GENERATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
- A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1-3 INCHES.
- A COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHT COOLING LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
TODAY-TUE...AN UPPER LEVEL (CUT-OFF) LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN
OVER THE WESTERN FL PENINSULA TODAY THEN OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AND
LIFT NE ON TUE. DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS 2-2.2") WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS (50-70%) SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH AFTERNOONS
OVER LAND. OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE ATLC, SPARKED THIS MORNING BY A LAND BREEZE
SLOWLY PUSHING OFFSHORE. AS DIURNAL HEATING DEVELOPS, CONVECTION
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
DRIFT INLAND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN COOL TODAY
(-8C AT 500MB) SO A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE CONTAINING
GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL 1-3". TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO -6C TUE AS THE UPPER
LOW WEAKENS/FILLS SO RISK OF STRONG STORMS WILL DECREASE. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT PEAK
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
WED-SUN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WED, THEN DEEPENS INTO A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW JUST OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST LATE WEEK WITH AN ASSOCD SFC LOW DEEPENING NEAR
990MB. THIS STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE MUCH AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CREATE A BLOCKING PATTERN INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN THE LOW LEVELS, A COOL FRONT WILL GET DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY WITH A SECONDARY
SURGE PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS 2-2.3") WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA WED ESP
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHILE THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT MAINTAINS ENOUGH
LIFT FOR NUMEROUS (60-70%) SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS. N/NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THU AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUPPORTING 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS 20-25 MPH
SPREADING SOUTHWARD FROM VOLUSIA INTO BREVARD DURING THU. GUSTS
NEAR 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA COAST
THURSDAY AFTN-EVE. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
CONTINUE.
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN INTO CENTRAL FL BEGINNING FRI, LOWERING
POPS TO 20-40% THIS WEEKEND. BREEZY NE FLOW CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY THEN DECREASING SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND.
DRIER AIR AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
DROP A FEW DEGREES TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HOWEVER, MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD HOLDING IN THE 70S DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
BUT AS THAT ONSHORE FLOW DECREASES, INLAND SECTIONS SHOULD DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO MID-WEEK AS
NE TO E WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER,
WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST EACH
DAY, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SEAS 1-3
FT. A COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
THURSDAY, BRINGING A SURGE OF N/NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL IN THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
DETERIORATE SOUTHWARD INTO FRIDAY, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-9 FT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
SMALL PATCH OF LIFR STRATUS/FOG NEAR ISM IS QUICKLY LIFTING AND
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH NEAR 12Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
STORM MAY ALSO BRUSH NORTHWARD ALONG THE TREASURE COAST THIS
MORNING, PRODUCING BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN FORECAST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS
STARTING AT 17Z, WITH PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS FOR MOST SITES RUNNING
FROM 18-21Z FOR MOST SITES, EXCLUDING KDAB. CONVECTION WILL THEN
MOSTLY DIMINISH AND PUSH W/SW OF THE AREA BY 00Z, BUT COULD STILL
SEE SOME LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS INTO
THE EVENING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY OUT
OF THE E/NE AROUND 5-9 KNOTS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND SHIFTS INLAND. GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 87 74 88 74 / 30 10 40 10
MCO 89 73 90 74 / 60 20 60 10
MLB 87 74 88 75 / 50 20 60 30
VRB 87 73 88 73 / 50 20 60 30
LEE 90 73 90 74 / 50 20 50 20
SFB 88 73 90 74 / 50 10 60 10
ORL 88 74 90 75 / 50 10 60 10
FPR 87 72 88 73 / 60 20 70 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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