425
FXUS62 KMLB 221959
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
259 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS PERSISTS AT ALL
CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL LIKELY
BE EXTENDED THROUGH TOMORROW. NICE WEATHER IS DECEIVING, PLEASE
REMAIN OUT OF THE SURF TODAY.
- WHILE MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY, THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A VERY LOW RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
PARTICULARLY ON THE COAST SOUTH OF ST LUCIE INLET.
- STEADILY WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING RECORDS BY SUNDAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT ON MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER BETWEEN THE
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEAST FL COAST. THIS BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE (FORECAST PW VALUES AROUND 1.3-1.6" ACROSS THE TREASURE
COAST) WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY,
MAINLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD, IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECTED
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 0.01-0.25" TODAY. RAIN CHANCES TODAY
WILL BE LOW TO MEDIUM (20-30 PERCENT) SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL, AND A
MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST, WITH THE HIGHEST
ACROSS THE MARTIN COUNTY COAST. CURRENT GUIDANCES HAS BACKED OFF
LIGHTNING STORM POTENTIAL OVER LAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
TREND IN MODELS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS, HAVE KEPT LIGHTNING
CHANCES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND TAKEN THEM OUT OVER LAND AREAS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT, WITH A
LOW (20%) CHANCE OF RAIN AT THE COAST, MAINLY FROM FORT PIERCE
SOUTHWARD.
DESPITE THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR, WEST OF I-95. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
REMAINS AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH TODAY.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH LATE WEEK, BUT
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTROL OVER THE LOCAL WEATHER. AT THE
SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO NORTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN THE
FRONT SLIGHTLY, WITH THE FRONT FORECAST TO REACH OUR FAR NORTHERN
CWA, OR REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH, AROUND DAY BREAK MONDAY.
LOCALLY, ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 MPH BEFORE VEERING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO
10-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH, ON SUNDAY. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD AND AS FAR INLAND AS
LAKE OKEECHOBEE EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH A RETURN OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40 PERCENT) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM MELBOURNE TO LAKE KISSIMMEE NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT,
STARTING ACROSS THE NORTH AND STEADING PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INCREASING DAILY
AND PEAKING SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST NEAR RECORD HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, AND MID TO UPPER 80S ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL BEACH SAFETY OFFICIALS
AND DO NOT ENTER THE OCEAN IF THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT.
MONDAY-THURSDAY... THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH OUR NORTHERN CWA MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE NEXT FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY, RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS A LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR MONDAY MORNING, WITH
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO POSSIBLE FROM CAPE CANAVERAL
SOUTHWARD INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
FORECAST THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
BREEZY AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
20-25 MPH. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT,
WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE SEASONABLE BY
MID/LATE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
TODAY-MONDAY... POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS 6 FT SEAS LINGER. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
HOWEVER, THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN INTO THIS WEEKEND AS IT SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST, MAINLY OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS EACH DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3-5FT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY, LOW PRESSURE GATHERS NORTH OF FLORIDA, TURNING WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTH AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. AN
ATTACHED COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY,
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 8FT ON SUNDAY, AND 10 FT
ON MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS FORECAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED STARTING SUNDAY GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST WILL PROMOTE
GREATER CLOUD COVER (OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THROUGH SUNSET) AND A
SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS (LITTLE IMPACT) TO THE KMLB-
KSUA CORRIDOR. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY VFR WITH LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 18 - 24 HOURS.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN AND INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE AT THIS
JUNCTURE IS LOW. FOR NOW, OPTED TO INCLUDE MIFG AND A FEW TEMPOS
WHERE CHANCES FOR BRIEF VISBY REDUCTIONS ARE GREATEST (40 - 60%).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 57 77 59 76 / 0 10 0 10
MCO 58 81 61 81 / 0 10 0 10
MLB 61 77 61 78 / 10 10 0 20
VRB 62 79 62 79 / 10 20 10 20
LEE 55 80 58 79 / 0 10 0 10
SFB 57 80 59 80 / 0 10 0 10
ORL 58 81 61 80 / 0 10 0 10
FPR 61 80 61 79 / 10 20 10 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...ULRICH
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