221
FXUS62 KMLB 210645
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
- A DRY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO BREEZY AND GUSTY ONSHORE
WINDS ONCE AGAIN LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- DETERIORATING BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
WASHES OUT INTO TONIGHT, AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
OVERHEAD. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, AS PWATS REMAIN NEAR
1". HOWEVER, CAMS SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (MARTIN COUNTY) LATE THIS
MORNING AND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE, WITH
MODELS SUPPORTING PWATS UP TO NEAR 1.5" IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND A WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE, HAVE INCLUDED A 20%
POP IN THAT AREA. DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT THE THUNDER THREAT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BECOME ONSHORE
AND INCREASE TO UP TO 10 MPH ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH, WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE
60S.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
US MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE, A REINFORCING, DRY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AT THE SURFACE WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
STALLING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA INTO LATE WEEK. NO MENTIONABLE POPS
THROUGH THURSDAY, AS PWATS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 1". NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-
15 MPH AND GUSTY THURSDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY LOOK TO COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID-
80S THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. PORTIONS OF THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S, THOUGH NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES COULD SEE THE UPPER 50S LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY-TUESDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM, WITH
DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. FOR NOW, HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE NBM,
WHICH MAINTAINS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN US AND THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. THUS, ONSHORE
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BREEZY AND GUSTY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
WHILE THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY AND POPS
REMAIN LIMITED (~20%) INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF POPS INCREASE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND
PWATS APPROACHING 1.5" AT TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL, IN THE LOWER 80S, WHILE ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
UNFORTUNATELY, BUILDING SEAS AND BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW ARE FORECAST TO
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS, AS WELL
AS A RISK FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION NEAR HIGH TIDE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR THE LOCAL WATERS WILL WASH OUT INTO
TONIGHT, BEFORE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME ONSHORE AROUND
5-10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS A WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS NEAR
THE COAST. THEN, NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY AT
10-15 KTS AND INCREASE TO UP TO 20-25 KTS INTO THE WEEKEND, AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
A LOW TO THE SOUTH. SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH THURSDAY BUILD THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO LATE WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK. MAY SEE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG BREEZY TO WINDY ONSHORE FLOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PATCHY DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR. OTHERWISE VFR THRU THE PERIOD.
THE PGRAD REMAINS WEAK WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE AT THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THIS TREND SPREADING INLAND INTO THE
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS STILL LIGHT UP TO AROUND 5 KTS L/V AHEAD OF SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND 7-10 KTS BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS ECFL, BUT WILL MONITOR FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON NEAR KFPR/KSUA WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 84 65 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 88 69 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 85 70 84 70 / 10 10 0 0
VRB 85 69 85 69 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 86 65 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 88 67 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 88 68 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 85 69 85 68 / 10 10 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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