462
FXUS62 KMLB 052348
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
748 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- DEEP MOISTURE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE HIGH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION EARLY
THIS WEEK. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL
NOTICEABLY REDUCE RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK.
- SEASONABLY HOT TODAY WITH A WARMING TREND BUILDING THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS AT ALL LOCAL BEACHES
TODAY. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM ALONE!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD WHILE DEEPENING. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF. LOCALLY,
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE, WHICH WILL FAVOR THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA WITH FORECAST PW VALUES 2+", WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
ALREADY FORMED ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BEING MORE ACTIVE AND THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAVING A LATER START. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZES, WITH
PEAK COVERAGE (50-70 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST BETWEEN
4PM-9PM AS THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION OCCURS NEAR OR WEST OF I-95 AND
EAST OF ORLANDO. LIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE STRONG. THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS
CONVECTION WITH AMBLE INSTABILITY (1800-2500J/KG MUCAPE), SUFFICIENT
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL (DCAPE ~ 600 J/KG), AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (-7 TO -8C AT 500 MB). MAIN STORM HAZARDS TODAY
WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS OF 45-
55 MPH, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE THE STEERING FLOW MAY BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS, REMAIN A
CONCERN IN SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC)
HAS PUT PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 102-
107 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MONDAY-TUESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON WILL
STEADILY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN COAST THROUGH TUESDAY,
MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, A BROAD, WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN US THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
FRONT SAGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST US THROUGH EARLY WEEK. A SURFACE
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA.
LOCALLY, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WHICH WILL KEEP THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE, WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING THAT WITH PW VALUES 2+". THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG. THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS THIS
WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY (MUCAPE 1400-2000J/KG), AND ADEQUATE
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL (DCAPE 400-700 J/KG). AND DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (-7 TO -6C AT 500 MB),
OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD ALSO AID IN STORMS BECOMING
STRONGER. MAIN STORM HAZARDS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS OF 40-55MPH, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DUE TO THE LIGHTER FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN, STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING OR EVEN STATIONARY, WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FORECAST (INCREASING A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY).
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY. THESE
TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE PEAK HEAT
INDICES OF 102-107F SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND MAY BE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEATRISK WILL AFFECT THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE US WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND PUSH OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE
PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN US AND THEN OFFSHORE BY LATE WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NE COAST WILL PUSH
NORTH AND EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY,REMAINING OFFSHORE. AT THE SAME
TIME, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL STAY IN
PLACE, WITH THE AXIS REMAINING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GULF. LOCALLY, THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS
ARE FORECAST EACH DAY, WITH MODELS INDICATING A SWATH OF DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN THE MID LEVELS, WHICH MAY REDUCE OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
ALONG THE COAST AND MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
TODAY-THURSDAY... GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK, SHIFTING ONSHORE (EAST TO SOUTHEAST) EACH AFTERNOON WITH
THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. WIND REMAINING 10 KT OR
LESS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BEFORE INCREASING TO 10-15 KT EACH
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS MOSTLY 1-3 FT, BUT OCCASIONALLY BUILD TO
4 FT FAR OFFSHORE, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
MAINLY VFR RESUMING THIS CYCLE, OUTSIDE OF LINGERING SHRA/TSRA
PUSHING TOWARD VRB-SUA AND OFFSHORE THRU 02-03Z. DRIER OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT SW WINDS 5-8 KT VEER ONSHORE
AFTER 17Z, FIRST FROM TIX SOUTHWARD AND THEN NORTH TO DAB. ACTIVE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE INITIATES SHRA/TSRA MCO/ISM NORTHWARD
17Z-20Z AS THE EAST COAST BREEZE BEGINS ISOLATED ACTIVITY TIX/MLB
SOUTHWARD. EVENTUAL SEA BREEZE COLLISION 21-23Z NEAR/WEST OF
COASTAL SITES WITH PEAK OF TSRA DISSIPATING AFTER 00Z TUE.
CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS AND TEMPOS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 92 76 93 / 20 60 30 40
MCO 76 93 76 94 / 30 70 30 60
MLB 77 91 77 91 / 30 70 30 60
VRB 75 91 75 92 / 30 60 20 60
LEE 77 93 77 93 / 20 50 20 40
SFB 77 94 77 95 / 20 70 30 40
ORL 77 93 77 93 / 20 70 30 50
FPR 75 91 75 91 / 30 60 20 60
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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