640
FXUS62 KMLB 271900
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
- A HOT AND DRY PATTERN WILL BUILD THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. MANY
INTERIOR LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 90S FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK.
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY.
- A LONG PERIOD SWELL BUILDING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE, A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN US
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS, AS OF 230PM, SHOWS THE FRONT IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. THIS FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO EARLY EVENING. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARING ECFL BY EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY, NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT (PW VALUES
AROUND 1.0-1.3") TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20PERCENT) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE DAY, WITH DRY AIR BUILDING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW ADEQUATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST (600-900
J/KG OF MUCAPE),COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ( -10 TO -11C AT 500MB),
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES, AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL (DCAPE AROUND 700-900 J/KG). BECAUSE OF THIS, STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS
OF 40-40 MPH, AND SMALL HAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE NORTHEAST FLOW
AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER, BRINING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
ALONG THE COAST (LOW TO MID 80S) AND THROUGH THE ORLANDO METRO AREA
(MID 80S). HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL (MID TO
UPPER 80S) ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF WESTERN
LAKE/OSCEOLA, AND OKEECHOBEE AS WELL AS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TREASURE COAST.
TUESDAY-SUNDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL
PUSH EASTWARD AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MID TO LATE WEEK BEFORE IT DEEPENS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE
EASTERN US ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MID WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND PUSH OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC THURSDAY, PULLING THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO FLORIDA. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON HOW CLEANLY
THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH WPC SHOWING
THE FRONT CLEARING ECFL BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
(PERHAPS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONT) WILL APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY, PUSHING THROUGH ECFL ON SUNDAY.
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURN ON
THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
MAINTAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TREND IN RAIN CHANCES HAVE
INCREASED THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME, ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN RAIN
CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THOSE TRENDS CAREFULLY. AS OF NOW, THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
(50 PERCENT AREA WIDE) OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH LOW 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY
MID WEEK, WITH LOW 90S EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF ECFL BY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
TEMPERATURES BECOMING NEAR NORMAL FROM BREVARD TO OSCEOLA NORTHWARD,
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE
COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH LOW 70S POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND ALONG
THE SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
TODAY-FRIDAY... POOR TO HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT OF THE
WINDS, SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-8FT, MAINLY IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FROM 5PM IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD, EXPANDING TO THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST AT 8 PM. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ON TUESDAY, WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT ON TUESDAY, 3-5FT ON WEDNESDAY, AND 2-4FT ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY, AND WESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS, WITH ONSHORE FLOW
RESUMING ON FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY, BUT MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL AS THE
NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW HAS PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS TODAY, WHICH ARE
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND OR BEFORE SUNSET. NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND REMAINING LESS THAN 15 KT ON
TUESDAY. SKIES REMAIN MAINLY VFR, THOUGH SOME OCNL MVFR CIGS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING ESPECIALLY NEAR SHOWERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 66 82 64 88 / 10 0 0 0
MCO 67 87 66 91 / 10 0 0 0
MLB 70 82 69 85 / 10 0 0 0
VRB 68 82 67 86 / 10 0 0 0
LEE 65 88 66 91 / 10 0 0 0
SFB 65 87 65 91 / 10 0 0 0
ORL 67 87 67 91 / 10 0 0 0
FPR 67 83 66 86 / 10 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR AMZ575.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...HEIL
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