382  
FXUS62 KMLB 131926  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
326 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2020  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...POCKET OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS SLOWLY  
MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS INITIALLY LIMITED SHOWER  
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING, AND  
IS NOW LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. IN ITS WAKE,  
A POCKET OF GREATER MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PENINSULA  
HELPING TO FIRE OFF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS. SOME  
OF THESE WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO LAKE COUNTY/ORLANDO METRO OVER  
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG  
STORMS AS ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE.  
 
STOUT WESTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING AT ALL  
TODAY ASIDE FROM THE VERY TIP OF THE CAPE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL  
FOR A VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE COLLISION ALONG THE  
BREVARD COUNTY COAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT  
EVERYWHERE INTO THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE  
COAST WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFFSHORE, AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION  
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN  
THE MID 70S.  
 
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY  
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY, WHILE AN ELONGATED  
STREAM OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY SOUTH OVER OUR AREA. A FEW SHOWERS  
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-4 BEFORE SUNSET INTO THE EARLY MORNING. RAIN  
CHANCES INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT AREAWIDE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A  
MORE FAVORABLE SETUP LEADS TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS.  
 
WEDNESDAY, HIGHER COVERAGE EXPANDS AREAWIDE AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN  
OVER THE PENINSULA/GOMEX, LEADING TO VARIABLE WINDS AND LITTLE  
INHIBITION TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE. THUS, A COLLISION  
WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH POPS OF 40-50 PERCENT  
WEST OF I-95. EXPECT BOUNDARY DRIVEN DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH DAYS,  
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR JUST A FEW MORE DAYS,  
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS APPROACHING 105  
DEGREES, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  
 
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) BY MID TO LATE WEEK, THE  
GRIP OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FINALLY RETREATS  
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO DEEP SOUTH. AS A  
RESULT, THE AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL FINALLY LIFT BACK  
NORTHWARD POSITIONING JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL FL, LEADING TO A  
SURFACE FLOW SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO EASTERLY BY EARLY THURSDAY.  
ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN  
THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, YIELDING DIURNAL CONVECTION  
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE WEST FL COAST. WHILE THIS  
REGIME DOES FAVOR ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE COAST, HIGHER MOISTURE  
(PW ABOVE 2.00") WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT 60-70 PERCENT AREAWIDE  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE STILL RUNNING MUCH HIGHER AT 80-90  
PERCENT COVERAGE, SO WILL CONTINUE TO CAP WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL  
INDICATORS OF DEFINITIVE RAINFALL. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL  
DANCE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA AT VARIOUS TIMES  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WHICH MAY OFFER ENHANCEMENT OF  
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE LOWER  
90S, LIKELY LIMITED BY SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE EARLY IN THE DAY.  
NIGHTTIME LOWS CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL KEEP RAIN  
CHANCES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. WINDS ARE WSW AT 5-10KT. INCLUDED VCTS  
FOR KMLB SOUTHWARD STARTING AT 20Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH,  
WILL MONITOR AND AMEND IF NEEDED. TOMORROW, WINDS WILL BE SW AT  
5-10KT. INCLUDED VCTS FOR KMCO STARTING AT 19Z, LEFT ALL MENTION  
OF VCTS/VCSH OUT OF THE TAF FOR THE OTHER SITES. WILL REEVALUATE  
FOR THE 00Z TAF.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THIS  
EVENING AS SEAS REMAIN FAVORABLE 2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2-3 FEET  
OFFSHORE. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS COULD DEVELOP RIGHT ALONG THE  
COAST DUE TO A VERY LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COLLISION. IF ANY  
STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFFSHORE. DANGEROUS  
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK TOWARDS THE LOCAL  
WATERS BY MID WEEK, AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WEST WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL  
BECOME EAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, REMAINING AT 10-15 KNOTS  
WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED EACH  
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES LIKELY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 75 93 75 92 / 10 40 10 40  
MCO 77 94 76 94 / 10 40 10 50  
MLB 76 92 75 91 / 20 40 10 50  
VRB 74 93 74 91 / 20 30 10 50  
LEE 77 94 76 94 / 20 40 10 40  
SFB 78 95 77 95 / 10 40 10 50  
ORL 78 95 78 94 / 10 40 10 50  
FPR 74 94 74 91 / 20 40 10 50  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
RODRIGUEZ/KELLY/WATSON  
 
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