055  
FXUS62 KMLB 201514  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
1114 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ANOTHER RAINY DAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA,  
WITH RAIN CHANCES WELL ABOVE NORMAL, AROUND 60-70 PERCENT, FOR  
MUCH OF THE AREA, AND EVEN AS HIGH AS 80 PERCENT FOR SOME AREAS  
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AROUND THE CAPE CANAVERAL AREA. MORNING  
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE  
REGION, WITH PW VALUES REMAINING QUITE HIGH AROUND 2.06". SCATTERED  
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES FORM AND PUSH  
INLAND. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND  
ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD TOWARD LATE  
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL BE  
FAVORED. THE MAIN STORM THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OCCASIONAL TO  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 2-4"  
LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING WITH SLOWER MOVING STORMS.  
 
VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN PAST  
SUNSET, HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER PRODUCING LIGHT TO  
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL LINGER WELL INTO LATE THIS EVENING,  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST FROM BREVARD  
COUNTY NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES OVER LAND SHOULD THEN END SHORTLY  
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT.  
HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARD  
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
SIMILAR TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SOME LINGERING MVFR  
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING AS AREAS OF STRATUS  
LIFT AND BREAK UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE INLAND MOVING  
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD, PRODUCING TEMPO  
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. GREATEST STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS THE  
INTERIOR AND FROM TIX NORTHWARD TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY  
EVENING WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL BE FAVORED. VFR CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE, GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME  
MORE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS  
AND PUSHES INLAND. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PUSH OFFSHORE THIS  
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THE GREATEST STORM COVERAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON  
WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE  
CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. STILL, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
STORMS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO FORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY  
AND TONIGHT. LOCAL BUOY 41009 OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS ARE 2 FT WITH  
A SSE WIND AROUND 10 KT. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT FOR THE NEAR SHORE  
WATERS AND 2-3 FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4  
FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 87 74 87 74 / 70 50 80 40  
MCO 90 75 89 75 / 70 40 80 30  
MLB 87 76 87 75 / 70 50 80 40  
VRB 90 75 89 75 / 60 40 80 40  
LEE 90 75 89 75 / 60 30 80 20  
SFB 89 74 88 74 / 70 40 80 30  
ORL 89 75 88 75 / 70 40 80 30  
FPR 88 74 87 73 / 60 40 80 40  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
WATSON/SEDLOCK  
 
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