354
FXUS62 KMLB 230823
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
425 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2019
DISCUSSION
..COOL FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA
CURRENT...NW WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL FRONT HAS REACHED
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
THE TRUE AIR MASS CHANGE IS LAGGING SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT,
AND IS JUST NOW PUSHING NORTHERN LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THIS IS WELL
MARKED BY A SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS, WHICH SEPARATES TEMPS/(DEW PTS) IN
THE M-U70S/(L70S) FROM 60S/(U40S/L50S) JUST TO THE NORTH.
TODAY-TONIGHT...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH EARLY FALL FROPAS, THE
SHALLOW POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL ONLY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
CENTRAL CWA BEFORE QUICKLY VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW EFFECTIVELY SHUTS
OFF ADVECTION OF COOLER/DRIER AIR ANY FARTHER SOUTH. BRIEF DECREASE
IN CLOUDS LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH CWA THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO ENE. WHILE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TS
OR TWO WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SE 4 COUNTIES, EXPECT DEVELOPMENT AND
ONSHORE PUSH OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS FROM THIS EVENING ONWARD.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE U70S NORTH TO U80S IN MARTIN CO. MINS
WILL SHOW A SIMILARLY LARGE RANGE, FROM M-U60S NW TO M-U70S SE IN
FRESHENING ONSHORE FLOW.
THU-FRI...RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BUILDS OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST INTO LATE WEEK WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING MORE
EASTERLY. THIS FLOW WILL MODIFY THE DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE, WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING BACK ACROSS THE
AREA. SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE BREEZY
EASTERLY FLOW, WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STORMS TO ALSO
DEVELOP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SAT-TUE...MODEL GUIDANCE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DEVELOPS
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT LIFTS N/NE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND DRAGS A FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE
STILL EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA BLOCKS THE FRONT FROM MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA, HOWEVER, WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH POPS
CONTINUING AROUND 40-50 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LATEST GFS DOES DEVELOP A DEEPER TROUGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT
ALLOWS THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO TUESDAY, BUT THE
ECMWF HOLDS ON TO A STRONGER RIDGE THAT KEEPS FRONT TO THE NORTH.
AVIATION
MVFR-IFR CIGS BKN008-010 BKN025 ALONG AND BEHIND THE
AIR MASS CHANCE WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH MCO-TIX, BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE MLB-SUA CORRIDOR. EVENTUALLY, MARINE CLOUDS AND
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WITH CIGS BKN035-045 PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING, AND PUSH TOWARD THE INLAND AND NW
AERODROMES LATE TONIGHT.
MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT
N-NE WIND SHIFT WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH
THE ENTIRETY OF THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20KT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5FT NEAR SHORE AND UP
TO 6FT OFFSHORE. WINDS SHE MORE TO ENE LATE TONIGHT. THE CAUTIONARY
STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA TODAY,
AND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
THU-SUN...RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA INTO LATE WEEK WILL GENERATE A
MODERATE TO FRESH ONSHORE BREEZE ACROSS THE WATERS, WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING UP TO 15-20 KNOTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO POOR BOATING
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6
FEET. WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND SEAS FALLING TO AROUND 3-5
FEET SATURDAY AND 2-4 FEET ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 78 71 83 74 / 0 20 50 40
MCO 82 69 85 72 / 0 10 50 20
MLB 83 75 84 76 / 10 20 50 40
VRB 83 75 85 76 / 30 30 50 30
LEE 80 67 85 72 / 0 10 40 20
SFB 80 69 85 73 / 0 10 50 30
ORL 80 69 85 73 / 0 10 50 20
FPR 84 75 85 76 / 40 30 40 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....WEITLICH
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