525
FXUS62 KMLB 020006
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
806 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
- HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS EACH DAY,
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY ONWARD. GREATEST COVERAGE GENERALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCES IN THE
OVERNIGHT.
- ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT
RECEIVE LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS MULTIPLE DAYS IN A ROW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT... THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED,
INITIATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (POPS ~50-60%) AS
THE SEA BREEZE PROGRESSES INLAND AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
INCREASE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AROUND -8.5 C HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO POOR
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD STILL BE SUPPORTIVE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
OR TWO. A STRONGER STORM WHICH DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
ADDITION TO TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST PEAK STORM
COVERAGE OCCURRING NEAR SUNSET ALONG A LATE SEA BREEZE COLLISION.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 10PM WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THE LOW
TO MID 70S, WHILE A FEW RURAL AREAS COULD SEE VALUES FALL INTO THE
UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY... A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IS NUDGED SOUTH AND EAST AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SHOULD
GENERALLY FAVOR A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE REGIME WHILE LIMITING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE EAST COAST BREEZE. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
HAVE STARTED TO HINT AT A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOULD THESE SOLUTIONS VERIFY, STORM
OUTFLOW COULD FURTHER AID THE PROGRESSION OF THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE. OUTFLOW AND SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE
(PWAT ~ 2.0-2.1") SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (70-80%). ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH,
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
HIGH PRECIP CHANCES AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY,
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW
MOVEMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA. SOUTHWEST
FLOW PILES MOISTURE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
MODELED PWATS NEAR TO ABOVE THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH POPS PEAKING BETWEEN 70-80% DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAVE BEEN
OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EACH DAY, AND
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER OR MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW LYING
AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN OCCUR.
ADDITIONAL STORM HAZARDS REMAIN CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
AND OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND WEAKENS, NHC IS MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP. THERE IS A LOW 30%
CHANCE FOR TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS WEEK OR
INTO THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TRENDS IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE CLOSE OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS ARE MOSTLY
FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WHILE A FEW AREAS COULD STILL TOUCH
THE 90 DEGREE MARK. MORNING LOWS WILL WIDELY RANGE THE LOW TO MID
70S.
SATURDAY-MONDAY (PREVIOUS)...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE OF THE FORECAST, DEPENDENT ON IF AND HOW THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS, BUT PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN AND FLOODING POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY SUNDAY, THEN A GRADUAL TREND TO CLOSER TO NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES BEYOND THE WEEKEND, THOUGH WHETHER THAT'S EARLY OR MID
WEEK IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
ACCOMPANIES THE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THANKS TO MORE OPPORTUNITY
FOR SUNLIGHT, BUT GENERALLY REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
MODIFIED PREVIOUS...
WHILE WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR BOATING AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY, MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL POSE A CONTINUOUS RISK FOR
MARINE OPERATORS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A
WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS FROM THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH, LOCATED NEAR
CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY, DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, SHIFTING FLOW FROM SOUTHERLY TODAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
MIDWEEK. WINDS BACK A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE
SEA BREEZE, THOUGH HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT IN A WEAK/LATE
DEVELOPMENT. SEAS 1-3 FT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
MONITORING AND CURRENTLY HAS A LOW (30%) CHANCE OF TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. CURRENTLY THE
GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE CONTINUED HIGH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS, BUT DOES DECREASE
CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST AFTER THURSDAY, THOUGH
SPEEDS AND HEIGHTS CURRENTLY LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY
CRITERIA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
OUTFLOW/ENHANCED SEA BREEZE HAS LED TO SOME GUSTY WINDS THAT MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 01Z WITH SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS ACROSS AREAS NEAR TO NW OF I-4. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
MINIMAL AND HAVE KEPT VCTS IN THROUGH 01Z, BUT KEPT TEMPO GROUPS
AS SHRA WITH BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THAT TIME FOR KDAB
AND INLAND TERMINALS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN THROUGH LATE
EVENING, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL S/SW FLOW WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW, WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT, BUT
OVERALL TRENDS FAVOR A MORE ACTIVE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND
PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE VCTS MENTIONED FOR NOW, STARTING AROUND 17-19Z,
BUT TEMPO GROUPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH LATER TAF PACKAGES
ONCE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INCREASES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 73 89 74 88 / 30 80 40 80
MCO 74 89 76 88 / 30 80 30 80
MLB 74 89 75 89 / 40 80 50 70
VRB 69 90 71 90 / 50 80 50 70
LEE 74 86 75 86 / 30 80 40 80
SFB 74 89 75 89 / 30 80 40 80
ORL 74 89 76 88 / 30 80 40 80
FPR 71 89 71 89 / 50 80 40 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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