946
FXUS62 KMLB 122055
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
- SMALL SHOWER CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE VERY SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL BUT SHOULD MAKE LITTLE DENT IN THE
DROUGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
THRU TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA, LIKELY ORIENTED NW-SE. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVE TOWARD THE SE. A BRIEF
DOWNPOUR WILL OCCUR IN SOME LUCKY SPOTS BUT MOST AREAS WILL NOT
SEE MEASURABLE RAIN.
FRI-SAT...THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATES BY SAT.
MOISTURE (PWATS 0.90-1.10") CONTINUES TO BE MEAGER AT BEST. MODELS
HAVE CUT BACK ON MENTIONABLE PRECIP POTENTIAL (~10%) FOR FRI,
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SPRINKLE/BRIEF SHOWER ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST. A SLIM LIGHT PRECIP THREAT CONTINUES ON SAT (AFTN)
ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS WITH A SMALL ONSHORE-MOVING
POTENTIAL. LIGHT MORNING NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRI GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING ONSHORE (NE) 7-12 MPH INTO THE AFTERNOON. A MORE
DIRECT ONSHORE (E/SE) WIND COMPONENT SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
EAST AND OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
SUN-WED (MODIFIED)...IN THE MID-LEVELS, A VIGOROUS TROUGH EAST OF
THE ARK/LA/TEX REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD THRU EARLY MON MORNING. THE ECMWF HAS THIS TROUGH ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY 12Z MON; WHEREAS THE GFS HAS IT ACROSS
THE FL PANHANDLE/NORTH FL - LAGGING BEHIND. THIS IS STILL
CREATING ISSUES WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT
INTO/THROUGH ECFL. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THRU ECFL LATE SUN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING AND THE GFS STILL DURING THE DAY
ON MON. WPC APPEARS TO BE FAVORING THE QUICKER ECMWF SOLUTION. WE
CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES SUN OF 30-50% BUT THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
HIGH. RAIN CHANCES PEAK SUN NIGHT AT 70-90% AND LINGER EARLY MON
(40-50%). HAVE MAINTAINED A 20-30% CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING SUN
NIGHT-MON.
DESPITE INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP ON SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
LOW 80S, EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
70S AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE; PERHAPS SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS TOWARDS
LAKE OKEE. A QUICK RETURN TO U70S ALONG THE COAST AND L80S
INTERIOR BY WED. LOWS IN THE U50S TO L60S MON MORNING, AND 50S FOR
TUE/WED/THU MORNINGS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR IN OUR FORECAST.
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND SFC LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH. WINDS DECREASE AND TURN NORTHWEST/NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT ON MON/TUE AND POSSIBLY LIGHT ONSHORE AGAIN BY WED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TONIGHT/FRI AND THEN DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
THE SE U.S. COAST SAT AND PRODUCE A MORE DIRECT ONSHORE FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON SUN AND INCREASE
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MON AND BRING HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUN
AS THE SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS 20 KNOTS NEARSHORE
AND 25 KNOTS WELL OFFSHORE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.
SEAS 2-3 NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE THROUGH SAT, THEN
BUILD 5-6 FT (PERHAPS 7 FT WELL OFFSHORE) IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING WINDS ON SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
IN RESPONSE TO THE DECREASING WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
MVFR CIGS REMAIN AS MORNING STRATUS IS SLOW TO DISSIPATE. HAVE A
FEW TEMPOS AT AFFECTED SITES FOR CIG THRU 19Z-20Z AND WILL AMEND
AS NEEDED. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS (AROUND 10 KT OR LESS) VEER MORE
NE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL
OVER THE AREA THRU FRI. LOW CHANCE FOR -SHRA EXISTS, MAINLY AFTER
21-23Z, ENDING BY 04Z AT TREASURE COAST TERMINALS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS LESS CONCLUSIVE ON STRATUS/FOG FORMATION AFTER
09Z FRI., SO ONLY INCLUDED MVFR CIG AT LEE FOR NOW. THIS MAY NEED
TO BE EXPANDED EAST TO SFB/MCO/ISM IN FUTURE TAF CYCLES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH FRIDAY THEN DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THE
SE U.S. COAST SAT WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN ONSHORE (E/SE) FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY AND THIS WILL
INCREASE OUR SOUTHERLY FLOW, BECOMING BREEZY/GUSTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY SENSITIVE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EVEN THOUGH RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
ABOVE THE CRITICAL 35 PERCENT THRESHOLD.
SMOKE DISPERSION WILL BE GENERALLY GOOD FRIDAY, AND VERY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT (60-90%)
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY
MONDAY. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 52 71 54 73 / 10 10 0 10
MCO 55 75 55 78 / 10 10 0 10
MLB 53 73 58 74 / 20 10 0 10
VRB 53 75 58 76 / 20 10 10 10
LEE 52 75 53 77 / 10 10 0 10
SFB 53 75 54 76 / 10 10 0 10
ORL 55 75 56 77 / 10 10 0 10
FPR 53 75 57 76 / 20 10 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...SCHAPER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page