369
FXUS62 KMLB 200239
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019
UPDATE
UPPER SUPPORT IS PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT. SO THE RAIN THAT HAS BEEN PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ALL DAY WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE TREASURE COAST IN A FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE MOIST WITH NE-E FLOW BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAINS, THIS TIME OFF THE ATLC. THIS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WED FOCUSED ON BREVARD AND VOLUSIA WHERE
CONVERGENCE IS GREATER. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS (60-70 PERCENT)
ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT DECREASING TO 30 PERCENT WESTERN LAKE
COUNTY. IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S, EXCEPT LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
WED (PREVIOUS)...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE NEWLY MERGED LOW
LVL VORTEX WILL PULL EASTWARD INTO THE W ATLC WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
EAST COAST BEACHES AND FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE IN THE H100-H85 LAYER
SUPPORTING ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS, THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE BLO 0.10".
POPS WILL RANGE FROM 30-40PCT ALONG THE COAST TO 20-30PCT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR (EXCEPT LAKE CO). ONSHORE NE FLOW WILL KEEP AFTN MAXES IN
THE L/M70S EXCEPT U60S THE VOLUSIA/N BREVARD CO. BEACHES.
AVIATION
MVFR CIGS WITH SHRA PUSHING ONSHORE FROM THE ATLC WITH OCCASIONAL
IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING
THEN LIFT ABOVE 030AGL OVER THE INTERIOR AFT 17Z OR BECOME SCT. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD HOLD LONGER AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
MARINE
TIGHT N/NE PRES GRAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN (VOLUSIA) WATERS WILL
PRODUCE 20-25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM
OVERNIGHT. A MORE BAGGY PRES GRAD EXISTS TO THE SOUTH WHERE E/NE
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS ARE OCCURRING OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST. A
MODERATE NE SWELL IS PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS HIGHER THAN WINDS ALONE
WOULD SUGGEST SO WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS FOR
7FT SEAS ESP IN THE GULF STREAM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 59 69 52 71 / 60 20 10 0
MCO 59 74 54 76 / 70 20 0 0
MLB 62 73 56 73 / 90 40 10 10
VRB 61 74 57 75 / 90 50 20 10
LEE 55 73 53 75 / 50 10 0 0
SFB 58 72 51 74 / 70 20 0 0
ORL 59 74 54 76 / 70 20 0 0
FPR 61 74 56 75 / 90 50 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLAGLER
BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM.
KELLY/WEITLICH
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