317
FXUS62 KMLB 261900
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS BEACH AND BOATING
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. HEADING TO THE BEACH AND
ENTERING THE OCEAN IS NOT ADVISED!
- ROUGH, DANGEROUS SURF, MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING,
MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS,
AND GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- SCATTERED ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS ARE FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE CAPE TUESDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE RETURNS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MORE AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
CURRENT-TUESDAY... EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
NEAR THE BAHAMAS. A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUES. EARLY
AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH REACHING INLAND LOCATIONS, AND HAVE OPTED
TO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST TO NOW INCLUDE ALL OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR LAKE COUNTY. THE WIND ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM THIS
EVENING WHILE CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 8AM TUESDAY. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE WIND FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, WITH
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPE AS THE
BEST CANDIDATES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES.
A PERIOD OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES COINCIDENT WITH ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS AND LONG WAVE PERIODS WILL CONTINUE NUMEROUS COASTAL HAZARDS.
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, ROUGH SURF, AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES
8-13 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE LOCAL BEACHES, AND ENTERING THE OCEAN IS
STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. TIDAL OBSERVATIONS AT TRIDENT PIER SHOWED A
PRELIMINARY CREST TO 3.02 FT (MHHW DATUM) DURING THIS MORNING'S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE, REACHING MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. THIS CREST REPRESENTS THE
HIGHEST NON-TROPICAL CYCLONE-RELATED WATER LEVEL SINCE THE
STATION WAS ESTABLISHED IN OCTOBER 1994. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH P-ETSS GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIMILAR
CREST TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. SALT WATER FLOODING PEAKING DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL IMPACT LOW-LYING ROADS, LOTS, DOCKS, AND
YARDS NEAR THE COAST AND INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY. POUNDING SURF WILL
ALSO CONTINUE MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION AT TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE.
ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY, AND THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY
REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE CAPE AND THE ORLANDO METRO
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR QUICK MOVING SHOWERS ON TUESDAY LOOK
TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST (40-60%), BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS (~20%) ACROSS COASTAL AREAS FURTHER
NORTHWARD. LIGHTNING POTENTIAL IS LOW, REMAINING LESS THAN 20%.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONAL EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
80S ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW 70S FOR MANY AREAS, BECOMING SLIGHTLY COOLER
IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY (PREVIOUS)... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
BECOMES REINFORCED, BUT DOES SHOW A WEAKENING TREND LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS IT IS PUSHED INTO THE WESTERN ALTC WITH APPROACH OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO LATE WORK-WEEK AS THE PGRAD REMAINS RATHER TIGHT. POOR TO
HAZARDOUS COASTAL/MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONGSIDE THE PERIOD OF
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE CYCLES. HIGHEST POPS OCCUR WED/THU (ESP CAPE
SOUTHWARD) DURING THIS PERIOD AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE IS POISED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M80S. LOWS CONTINUE
ABOVE CLIMO WELL INTO THE 60S TO L70S AT LEAST THRU SAT MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN AS THE AREA REMAINS WEDGED
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAHAMAS. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
LEGS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS INTO THE EVENING AS NORTHEAST
WINDS 20-30 KTS AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KTS CONTINUE. WILL ALLOW
GALE WARNINGS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE VOLUSIA AND NEARSHORE BREVARD
WATERS TO TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TONIGHT, AS WIND
GUSTS SLIGHTLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THESE ZONES. OTHERWISE, GALE WARNINGS
CONTINUE FOR THE GULF STREAM WATERS INTO MID WEEK. SEAS 10-15 FT
(HIGHEST IN GULF STREAM) WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO PERSIST INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS WINDS AND SEA WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.
SCATTERED, GUSTY, ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUE AREAWIDE THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR SHOULD MOSTLY LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE CAPE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING MORE
AREAWIDE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LIGHTING CHANCES REMAIN LOW
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
BREEZY/WINDY N/NE WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS MOSTLY AROUND 17-22 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 28-32
KNOTS. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KNOTS AT TIME
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH FAST MOVING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS. NO LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY AS INSTABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW.
WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR DIMINISH TO 10-15 KNOTS THIS EVENING,
BUT A FRESH ONSHORE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 69 80 72 80 / 40 20 20 60
MCO 70 82 72 82 / 20 10 20 50
MLB 71 81 72 82 / 30 20 60 70
VRB 71 83 72 84 / 30 50 70 70
LEE 66 82 69 82 / 20 10 10 30
SFB 68 82 72 81 / 20 20 20 50
ORL 69 82 72 82 / 20 20 20 50
FPR 71 82 72 83 / 30 60 70 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ041-045-046-053-
058-247-254-259-264-547.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ141-154-159-
164-347-447-647-747.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ141-154-159-
164-347-447-647-747.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ141-154-159-164-347-
447-647-747.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ550-552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
AMZ550-552.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ555-570-572-575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ555-570-572-575.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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