461
FXUS62 KMLB 202003
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
302 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2019
DISCUSSION
..COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN TONIGHT, BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL BECOMING NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LATE NIGHT TEMPS TO DROP TO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR/NRN CSTL SECTIONS TO THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THAT
REACHED 35-40 MPH WILL DROP AFTER SUNSET TO 10-15 MPH AND THEN
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR
OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM. LATE NIGHT
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW THE AIR TEMPERATURE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S FROM AROUND 4 TO 8 AM, BUT SUSTAINED WINDS
SHOULD BE BELOW 10 MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS IN THE GRIDS/ZFP/HWO FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
EROSION OF THE STRATOCU DECK IS FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATER THIS EVENING.
MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE MORNING VEERING
TO THE NNE/NE INTO THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A COLD START MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME MARINE STRATOCU APPROACHING THE SRN
TREASURE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TEMPS WILL BE COOL RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTRY TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SLIDES EASTWARD CAUSING WINDS
TO VEER ESE ON TUESDAY. WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MARINE STRATOCU OVER
LAND, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MENTIONABLE
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOW 70S FOR AREAS SOUTH. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND AS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN.
BY WEDNESDAY, AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL NUDGE THE HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER
EAST CAUSING OUR WINDS TO VEER TO SE/SSE. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT OVERALL CHANCES LOOK
LOW. 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER (CLOSER TO THE ECMWF) AND
POPS HAVE BEEN TAPERED DOWN TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE BOARD.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND AS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MON. NIGHT/TUES. MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S
OVER THE INTERIOR, AND UPPER 40S-LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST (EXCEPT MID
50S TREASURE COAST). QUITE A BIT WARMER TUES. NIGHT/WEDS. MORNING
WITH MID-UPPER 50S INTERIOR AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST.
WED NIGHT-SUN (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)... PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP ON WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BCMG LIKELY
WED NIGHT THRU THU AS THE FRONT PUSHES RAPIDLY THRU THE STATE. WILL
INCLUDE A SLGT CHC OF TSRAS WED NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AS MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME RATHER VIGOROUS DYNAMIC LIFT IN BOTH THE MID LVL
OMEGA/UPR LVL DIVERGENCE FIELDS. SOME ARGUMENT FOR HIGHER TSRA
CHANCES, BUT GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP STARTING WED NIGHT,
DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH THE FROPA, AND THE LOW SUN ANGLE OF LATE JAN,
THU MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS.
PRECIP ENDING RAPIDLY LATE THU AFTN/THU EVNG AS THE FRONT RACES THRU
THE STATE. BRISK NW FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD AIR INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
U50S/M60S...MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE U30S/M40S.
AVIATION
GUSTY WINDS TO 30-35 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR ECFL TERMINALS INTO
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET. AN AWW IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 415PM FOR KMCO/KORL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.
A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW BKN STRATOCU MAINLY NW OF A
KISM-KDAB LINE TO BECOME SCATTERED INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. CLEARING SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR CONDS. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEFORE SUNSET WILL VEER TO THE
NW INTO LATE EVENING AND DROP TO 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLR
SKIES MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING NE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
TONIGHT...NW WINDS TO 20 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 25 KNOTS OFFSHORE INTO
EARLY EVENING WILL VEER TO THE N AND DROP TO 15 KNOTS NEAR SHORE 15-
20 KNOTS OFFSHORE INTO LATE TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE GALE OFFSHORE
INTO THIS EVENING AND SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS INTO THIS EVENING AND
THEN TRANSITION THE GULF STREAM AREAS TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS OFFSHORE UP TO 7-9 FT AND 4-6
FT DECREASING TO 3-5 FT NEARSHORE.
MONDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS WILL BECOME NNE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED ACROSS THE GULF STREAM AND
OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT BECOMING HAZARDOUS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL VEER FROM EASTERLY
TUESDAY TO SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY BY
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGED EASTWARD BY APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20
KT NEARSHORE AND AROUND 20-25 (POSSIBLY 25-30 WEDNESDAY NIGHT) KT IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-7 FT NEARSHORE AND 6-9 FT
OFFSHORE. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AS WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KT WITH
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 35 58 47 68 / 0 0 0 10
MCO 39 62 47 71 / 0 0 0 10
MLB 40 63 54 70 / 0 0 10 10
VRB 42 64 54 71 / 0 0 10 10
LEE 36 60 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 38 59 45 69 / 0 0 0 10
ORL 39 61 48 70 / 0 0 0 10
FPR 42 66 54 71 / 0 0 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN
LAKE COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR FLAGLER
BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM.
VOLKMER/COMBS/ULRICH
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