369  
FXUS62 KMLB 200239  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
1030 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPPER SUPPORT IS PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AIR  
MOVING IN ALOFT. SO THE RAIN THAT HAS BEEN PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE  
AREA ALL DAY WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE TREASURE COAST IN A FEW HOURS.  
HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE MOIST WITH NE-E FLOW BRINGING  
ADDITIONAL RAINS, THIS TIME OFF THE ATLC. THIS WILL CONTINUE  
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WED FOCUSED ON BREVARD AND VOLUSIA WHERE  
CONVERGENCE IS GREATER. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS (60-70 PERCENT)  
ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT DECREASING TO 30 PERCENT WESTERN LAKE  
COUNTY. IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 50S, EXCEPT LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.  
 
WED (PREVIOUS)...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE NEWLY MERGED LOW  
LVL VORTEX WILL PULL EASTWARD INTO THE W ATLC WITH MID LEVEL FLOW  
BECOMING WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE  
EAST COAST BEACHES AND FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE IN THE H100-H85 LAYER  
SUPPORTING ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS, THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE BLO 0.10".  
POPS WILL RANGE FROM 30-40PCT ALONG THE COAST TO 20-30PCT ACROSS THE  
INTERIOR (EXCEPT LAKE CO). ONSHORE NE FLOW WILL KEEP AFTN MAXES IN  
THE L/M70S EXCEPT U60S THE VOLUSIA/N BREVARD CO. BEACHES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
MVFR CIGS WITH SHRA PUSHING ONSHORE FROM THE ATLC WITH OCCASIONAL  
IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING  
THEN LIFT ABOVE 030AGL OVER THE INTERIOR AFT 17Z OR BECOME SCT. MVFR  
CIGS SHOULD HOLD LONGER AT COASTAL TERMINALS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
TIGHT N/NE PRES GRAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN (VOLUSIA) WATERS WILL  
PRODUCE 20-25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM  
OVERNIGHT. A MORE BAGGY PRES GRAD EXISTS TO THE SOUTH WHERE E/NE  
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS ARE OCCURRING OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST. A  
MODERATE NE SWELL IS PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS HIGHER THAN WINDS ALONE  
WOULD SUGGEST SO WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS FOR  
7FT SEAS ESP IN THE GULF STREAM.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 59 69 52 71 / 60 20 10 0  
MCO 59 74 54 76 / 70 20 0 0  
MLB 62 73 56 73 / 90 40 10 10  
VRB 61 74 57 75 / 90 50 20 10  
LEE 55 73 53 75 / 50 10 0 0  
SFB 58 72 51 74 / 70 20 0 0  
ORL 59 74 54 76 / 70 20 0 0  
FPR 61 74 56 75 / 90 50 20 10  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLAGLER  
BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
KELLY/WEITLICH  
 
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