258
FXUS62 KMLB 192327
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
727 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO (TD 2) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL WEST
OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL
BE BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MONDAY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. STORM HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 55 MPH (5 PERCENT
CHANCE UP TO 60 MPH IN STRONGER STORMS TODAY), AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. MINOR, LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
SOME LOCATIONS.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100-107F AREAWIDE.
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY IF SPENDING EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME
OUTDOORS!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
REST OF TODAY-MONDAY...TD 2 REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN SURFACE
HIGHS (ONE OVER THE ATLANTIC, ONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF) THROUGH
MONDAY, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO LINGER OVER THE NE GULF. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA, BANDS OF GUSTY
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED,
WITH POPS 40-60%. THUS, MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
HOWEVER, TRAINING STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH
1-3" IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME POSSIBLY LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING.
STORM MOTIONS NEAR 20-25 MPH AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR 50-55 MPH. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR FROM NEAR
THE ORLANDO METRO NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS MONDAY, WITH GUSTY BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
NNE. CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET, BUT WILL SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW CELLS BRUSHING THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN TD 2 AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS
20-25 MPH, ARE FORECAST AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON, BACKING SE ALONG
THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 90S CONTINUE. HEAT INDICES 102-107 WILL MAINTAIN A
MODERATE TO HIGH HEATRISK. ALWAYS PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY!
TUESDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE ATLANTIC
MIDWEEK, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES IN OVER THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL ALLOW TD 2 TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK, AWAY FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. DRIER AIR (PWATS
1.5" OR LESS) MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY, REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOWER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN, A BOUNDARY DIGGING THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA
USHERS SOME MOISTURE RETURN. JUST HOW MUCH REMAINS TO BE SEEN AND
WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT/WHERE IT STALLS.
FOR NOW, HAVE POPS 30-50% FOR THE WEEKEND. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES, A MORE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE PATTERN RETURNS AND
WINDS SLACKEN. HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, AS HIGHS CREEP UP A
DEGREE OR TWO, NEARING THE UPPER 90S AT TIMES. WILL MONITOR THE
NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES, AS HEAT INDICES REMAIN ABOVE 100 F.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
TD 2 WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW 15-20 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK. WINDS NEAR 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE,
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AT TIMES DUE TO THE BREEZY
FLOW. EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH A RETURN OF
THE MORE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE INDUCED PATTERN. SEAS 2-3 FT BUILD TO
4 FT AT TIMES NORTH OF THE CAPE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, AS BANDS FROM DISTANT TD 2
PASS THROUGH THE AREA. DRIER AIR LATE IN THE WEEK WILL REDUCE RAIN
CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 716 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN, THOUGH WILL STILL SEE ISOLD-WDLY SCT
CONVECTION THRU THE EVENING. WILL USE "VICINITY" WORDING AND TEMPO
GROUPS AS NECESSARY. SSE/SE WINDS WILL FALL BACK TO 5-10 KTS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. S/SSW WINDS EARLY MON WILL AGAIN "BACK"
SE/ESE BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE PGRAD REMAINS A BIT TIGHT AND WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE BACK UP TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DAY WITH DIURNAL SCT TO LOCALLY NMRS SHOWER
& STORM COVERAGE WITH ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHWARD AT 10-15 KTS. PROB30
GROUPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED AND FUTURE SHIFTS CAN ADJUST TIMING AS
APPLICABLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 77 92 77 93 / 20 50 20 30
MCO 77 94 77 95 / 20 50 20 20
MLB 77 92 78 92 / 20 50 20 20
VRB 76 93 76 93 / 20 50 20 20
LEE 77 92 78 93 / 20 50 20 20
SFB 77 94 77 95 / 20 60 20 20
ORL 77 93 78 94 / 30 50 20 20
FPR 75 93 76 93 / 20 60 20 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WISHARD
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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