175
FXUS62 KMLB 122350
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
750 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS WILL FOCUS ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY, WHERE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE WILL GENERATE LIGHTNING STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 55 MPH.
- NEAR-NORMAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE SAHARAN DUST MID- WEEK LIMITING
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES.
- HOT, HUMID JULY TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 102-107F EACH DAY. BE SURE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...A SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN NORMAL START TO
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 BY 2 PM. OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY
IS EVIDENT ON KMLB RADAR, MOVING SOUTHWARD AND SPARKING ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
SOME ENHANCEMENT LIKELY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS THE BOUNDARIES
ZIPPER SOUTHWARD. GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED, WITH A
41 MPH WIND GUST AT KDED. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING, WITH SPC
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 800-1000 J/KG AT
TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS, THE MAIN THREATS TODAY WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 55-60 MPH, LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. BUT, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL, WITH THE 15Z
XMR SOUNDING FINDING 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -8C.
CAMS ARE SLOWLY PLAYING CATCHUP WITH THE EARLIER START TO
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THEY ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THIS
EVENING, CLEARING THE TREASURE COAST NEAR 8-10 PM. THEN, DRIER
CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR LAKE COUNTY NEAR
SUNRISE, AS SUGGESTED BY A FEW CAMS. THOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE
FROM CONVECTION NEAR THE PANHANDLE, SO IT WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON
IF/HOW THAT EVOLVES. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT, WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE PLANTS ITSELF OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH MID-WEEK, FENDING OFF A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
US. THIS WILL MAINTAIN PREVAILING OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THOUGH DAILY SEA BREEZES ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS (POPS 40-60%) ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PINNED SEA BREEZE.
STORM THREATS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH ENOUGH DRIER AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS.
AS WE MOVE INTO MID-WEEK AND HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
AREA, A SURGE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER (SAL) MOVES OVER THE STATE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL WORK TO LIMIT SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE (15-30%, HIGHEST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE) MOST AREAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INCREASINGLY INTO THE
MID-90S THROUGH THIS WEEK. DESPITE DRIER AIR ALOFT, PWATS NEAR
1.6-1.8" WILL MAINTAIN HEAT INDICES 102-107F. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES. REGARDLESS,
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY. NEVER
LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS UNATTENDED IN A CAR FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME.
FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, WHILE EFFECTS FROM THE SAL DIMINISH. THUS, NEARER TO
NORMAL COVERAGE (30-40%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS. PREVAILING
OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST, MAINTAINING HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-90S. THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY OVERALL, AS HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AND
MOISTURE SLIGHTLY INCREASES. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THROUGH THE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT INCREASES TO
UP TO 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND BECOMES SOUTHERLY NEAR THE
COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS 1-2 FT BUILD TO UP TO 3 FT
IN THE GULF STREAM AT TIMES. OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE A THREAT THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. THEN, DRIER AIR LIMITS
CONVECTION OVERALL MID TO LATE WEEK. MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY STORMS
WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KTS, LIGHTNING STRIKES, SMALL HAIL,
AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING, WITH
SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND STORMS AROUND VRB/FPR. ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 02Z. SSW WINDS
5-10 KT THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT, VARIABLE AT
TIMES, BEFORE INCREASING TO 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING. THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL FORM AND PUSH INLAND BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON, VEERING WINDS E/SE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT BEHIND
THE SEA BREEZE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH STORMS FOR MONDAY.
BUT FOR NOW HAVE VCTS STARTING AT 16/18Z FOR INTERIOR TERMINALS,
17/19Z FROM DAB- MLB, AND 20/21Z FOR VRB- SUA. TEMPOS WILL LIKELY
BE ADDED IN LATER TAF PACKAGES, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. MUCH LIKE THIS EVENING, CONVECTION ON
MONDAY LOOKS TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 01/02Z, WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 75 92 75 92 / 20 60 20 30
MCO 76 95 76 96 / 20 40 10 20
MLB 77 93 77 93 / 30 50 20 20
VRB 76 95 75 94 / 30 50 30 20
LEE 77 92 77 93 / 20 50 10 30
SFB 77 94 76 95 / 20 50 10 20
ORL 77 94 77 95 / 20 50 10 20
FPR 76 95 75 94 / 30 50 30 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WISHARD
AVIATION...WATSON
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