360
FXUS62 KMLB 282000
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
400 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
- DAILY AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES PERSIST
THIS WEEK WITH THREATS OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL TO COIN-SIZE HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL; THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER AREAS
OF ECFL THURSDAY AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER AREAS OF ECFL ON FRIDAY
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH A MINOR TO
MODERATE HEATRISK; PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES INCREASE TO 99-107F
THROUGH FRIDAY
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
CURRENTLY-THURSDAY... LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING STORMS DEVELOPING OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON. GOES-16 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 98 TO 107F. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
LOW TO UPPER 70S. WINDS ARE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10-15MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 20MPH OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10MPH OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS (40-60%) AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RAIN SHOWER AND LIGHTNING STORMS
CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 9PM (20-40%) OVER EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. ISOLATED STRONG LIGHTNING STORMS CAPABLE OF FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS TO 40-50MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL
(1-3" IN 90 MINUTES) ARE FORECAST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST
OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON THURSDAY AS THE EAST COAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES, AS WELL AS OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS STORMS
CONVERGE OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
COOL TO -8C TO -9C AT 500MB ON THURSDAY WITH PWATS BETWEEN
1.70-2.40" COUPLED WITH MUCAPE UP TO 3,000-4,500 J/KG AND 20-30KTS
0-6KM SHEAR WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.0-6.6 C/KM.
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE
GREATEST RISK (5-14%) WHERE THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT
OF 5) FORECAST NORTH OF KISSIMMEE TO CAPE CANAVERAL. ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 58MPH OR GREATER,
HAIL TO 1" IN DIAMETER, IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL (1-3"+ IN 90 MINUTES). THE MOST LIKELY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.10-0.60" ARE FORECAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ARE FORECAST WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN
98-107F. THERE IS A MINOR TO MODERATE HEATRISK. A MODERATE
HEATRISK CAN AFFECT INDIVIDUALS SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY
WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION. MORE INFORMATION
ON HEATRISK CAN BE FOUND AT WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEATRISK.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY (EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE
~996MB OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US ON SATURDAY AND ~ 992MB OVER
EASTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST- SOUTHEAST OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY OVER
FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (POPS
~50-80%) AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (POPS ~ 20-60%) AND LIGHTNING
STORMS FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 500MB TEMPERATURES
AT -8C TO -9C ON FRIDAY AND AT -9C TO -10C ON SUNDAY WITH MUCAPE
BETWEEN 1,000 J/KG-3,000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR AT 20-40KTS.
ADDITIONALLY, 850MB AND 925MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
20-40KTS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO STEEPEN TO 6.5-7.1 C/KM ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
GUIDANCE SHOWS SCP VALUES INCREASING OVER ECFL ON SATURDAY WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 2-4+.
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS OVER AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY AND THIS
WEEKEND; HOWEVER THE FORECAST AND ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK
WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (5-14% RISK) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ON FRIDAY FOR AREAS OF LAKE, VOLUSIA, ORANGE, SEMINOLE,
OSCEOLA, AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED STORMS
CAPABLE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 1-3"+ IN 90 MINUTES ARE FORECAST.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 10-18MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 20-30MPH. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 98-105F ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY
WITH THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LOW 60S TO LOW
70S FORECAST ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST-SOUHTEAST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN FLORIDA ON MONDAY
AND OVER THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WATERS ON TUESDAY. PREDOMINATELY
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME ONSHORE MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (POPS ~30-60%) AND
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO EACH AFTERNOON WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE FORECAST OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ORLANDO METRO. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 500MB TEMPERATURES COOLING TO
-10C TO -12C ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE
OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S ARE FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
CURRENTLY-THURSDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. SCATTERED OFFSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS (POPS ~30-60%) AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, IN ADDITION TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO EACH OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34KTS,
SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 50KTS, HAIL TO 1" DIAMETER, AND HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 8-14KTS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 8-14KTS. SEAS TO 1-3FT WITH UP TO
4 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE (20-60NM) WATERS ARE FORECAST.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS (POPS ~30-80%) AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS IN THE MORNING FORECAST ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS
WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34KTS, AND HAIL. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
10-15KTS WITH UP TO 20KTS OVER THE OFFSHORE (20-60NM) WATERS ARE
FORECAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT 10-15KTS FROM THE WEST. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 6-14KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS TO
1-3FT WITH UP TO 4-5 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE (20-60NM) WATERS ON
SATURDAY ARE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE ONGOING AT SUA THIS AFTERNOON.
SSW 5-10 KT WILL VEER ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE FORMS AND PUSHES INLAND. THE DOMINATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
HELP KEEP THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FAVORED ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM
ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
LATE DAY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. INCLUDED A 2 TO 3 HR TSRA TEMPOS
WITH MVFR CIGS AND VIS STARTING AT 23Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR, 22Z
FOR DAB, AND 00Z FOR TIX/MLB. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE OR MOVE AWAY FROM AREA AROUND 03Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTERNOON 03Z) BEFORE BECOMING
SSW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 5 KT BY MID THURSDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 72 92 72 92 / 40 70 40 60
MCO 74 92 74 91 / 40 70 40 60
MLB 74 90 74 92 / 50 70 50 70
VRB 73 91 73 92 / 30 60 40 70
LEE 74 93 74 90 / 10 60 30 60
SFB 74 94 73 92 / 40 70 40 60
ORL 75 93 75 92 / 40 70 40 60
FPR 72 90 72 92 / 30 60 40 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEHLING
AVIATION...WATSON
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