199
FXUS62 KMLB 291857
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
157 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 155 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
- CHILLY OVERNIGHT WITH WARMER, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON
- VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP SATURDAY WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS35
TO 45 MPH; OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE
- A RARE EXTREME COLD WATCH AND FREEZE WATCH ISSUED FOR ALL OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY; DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 7 DEGREES AND A HARD FREEZE LIKELY WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S SUNDAY MORNING
- GALE WATCH ISSUED FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING BOATING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE AND
SEAS BUILD; STRONG GALE-FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
NOW-FRIDAY...WHILE STILL A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE, IT IS A PLEASANT
AFTERNOON OUT THERE AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S. SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS ABSENT OF CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA,
ALLOWING FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL EFFICIENTLY INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT (LOW-MID 50S AT
THE COAST), WHICH RANGES FROM 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, ON AVERAGE.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INCREASE ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST WHILE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST WARM DAY WITH
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY. PLEASANT CONDITIONS
WILL PROVIDE A PRIME OPPORTUNITY TO PREPARE FOR THIS WEEKEND'S
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR (SATURDAY MAY BE TOO WINDY...MORE ON THAT
BELOW). THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS
MARTIN AND COASTAL SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES FRIDAY AS COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER, THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL PRETTY QUICKLY MOVE
OFFSHORE, LEAVING DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.
SATURDAY...BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF AND STATE OF
FLORIDA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH GEORGIA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC
SATURDAY MORNING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
AROUND SUNRISE. PW BRIEFLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 1", AND
WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH
HIGHER CHANCES FOCUSED SOUTH OF MELBOURNE (FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO
THE TREASURE COAST). RAIN TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS
THAT 0.05" TO 0.10". CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER BUT ARE LIKELY TO CLEAR OUT FAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PRESSURE
FALLS AND WINDS STRENGTHENING BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
SUSTAINED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 35-45
MPH ARE LIKELY (MODELS SHOW 925 WINDS 35-45+ KT). IN FACT, THERE IS
AT LEAST A 20-30% PROBABILITY OF 50+ MPH GUSTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND, BY MIDDAY SATURDAY, IT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS OR PREPARE
VEGETATION FOR THE ANTICIPATED HARD FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS, WE
ENCOURAGE RESIDENTS (AND VISITORS) TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE COLD
WEATHER BEFORE THESE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARRIVE!
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET SATURDAY AFTERNOON AFTER REACHING AN
EARLIER HIGH IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. BY SUNSET, EXPECT TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH OF I-4 TO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST. A HARD FREEZE IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH FORECAST LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW AND
MIDDLE 20S (UPPER 20S FAR SOUTH). THIS, COMBINED WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS, WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS. WITH A WIDESPREAD FREEZE AND EXTREME COLD EVENT
INCREASINGLY LIKELY, RESIDENTS, OFFICIALS, AND AGRICULTURAL
OPERATIONS SHOULD BEGIN PREPARING. PEOPLE AND PETS WITH INADEQUATE
SHELTER OR HEAT WILL FACE A RISK OF FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.
EXPOSED PIPES MAY FREEZE, AND SOME NON-NATIVE PLANTS AND TREES WILL
SUCCUMB TO THE ELEMENTS IF NOT PROPERLY PROTECTED. THE RISK TO NON-
COLD-HARDY PLANTS AND PALMS IS MUCH HIGHER DUE TO THE WIND-DRIVEN
COLD THAT IS EXPECTED.
WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS, BOTH A FREEZE WATCH AND AN EXTREME
COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. TO EMPHASIZE THE RARITY OF SUCH AN
EVENT, THE LAST TIME NWS MELBOURNE ISSUED A WIND CHILL WARNING WAS
IN JANUARY OF 2014.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...WHILE WINDS DECREASE GRADUALLY ON SUNDAY AS THE
NOR'EASTER PULLS WELL AND AWAY, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AREAWIDE. COMBINE THIS WITH A 10-20
MPH WIND AND WIND CHILLS WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, SO PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS ANTICIPATED. FIRE SENSITIVE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AS RESULT OF THE DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS (LINGERING INTO MONDAY).
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS ON TAP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
WITH LOWS FORECAST TO SINK BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WIND CHILLS RETREAT INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S AS A 5-10
MPH NORTHWEST WIND PERSISTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, AND AN ANTICIPATED WARMUP COMMENCES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TUESDAY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BY WEDNESDAY. EACH
MORNING WILL STILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE (30S TO LOW 40S).
FOR ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER SUPPORT, INCLUDING PROBABILITIES AND
DURATIONS OF SPECIFIC TEMPERATURES FOR YOUR LOCATION, VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/MLB/COLDSUPPORT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE LOCAL WATERS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 10-15 KT OFFSHORE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-4 FT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SET TO BRING A RARE AND SIGNIFICANT COLD
OUTBREAK TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO 25-35+ KT (LIKELY
SUSTAINED GALE-FORCE) WITH STRONG GALE-FORCE GUSTS. FOR A BRIEF TIME
SATURDAY NIGHT, OCCASIONAL STORM-FORCE GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SEAS BUILD IN RESPONSE, GROWING TO 5-8 FT NEARSHORE AND 8-11 FT
OFFSHORE BY SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING. SEAS BUILD FURTHER, REACHING 6-
11 FT NEARSHORE AND 10-16 FT OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK, LIKELY REMAINING HAZARDOUS IN
THE GULF STREAM THROUGH MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, AS NORTHWEST
WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THUS, A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED,
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY.
SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE GULF STREAM AND NEARSHORE TREASURE
COAST WATERS FRIDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY FORMS, THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING. ON SATURDAY, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT (PARTICULARLY OVER THE GULF
STREAM AND SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NW/N WINDS
VEER NE/ENE DURING THE DAY 6-12 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE TO
CALM THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOMING MORE WRLY ON FRI 5-10
KTS. INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON FRI, AND LOWERING CIGS
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS HERE FRI AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 155 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1ST:
RECORD NORMAL RECORD NORMAL
DATE LOWS LOWS COOL-HIGHS HIGHS
DAYTONA BEACH (DAB) 1-FEB 30 1936 49 47 1980 70
LEESBURG (LEE) 1-FEB 30 1979 50 52 1978 71
SANFORD (SFB) 1-FEB 30 1965 51 46 1977 72
ORLANDO (MCO) 1-FEB 28 1936 51 48 1936 73
MELBOURNE (MLB) 1-FEB 32 1966 52 55 1948 72
VERO BEACH (VRB) 1-FEB 29 1966 53 56 1966 74
FORT PIERCE (FPR) 1-FEB 32 1909 52 54 1936 74
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 2ND:
RECORD NORMAL RECORD NORMAL
DATE LOWS LOWS COOL-HIGHS HIGHS
DAYTONA BEACH (DAB) 2-FEB 32 1980 50 51 1980 70
LEESBURG (LEE) 2-FEB 29 1980 50 48 1980 71
SANFORD (SFB) 2-FEB 33 1980 51 49 1980 72
ORLANDO (MCO) 2-FEB 32 1980 51 54 1951 73
MELBOURNE (MLB) 2-FEB 33 1980 52 55 1994 73
VERO BEACH (VRB) 2-FEB 34 1980 53 55 1980 74
FORT PIERCE (FPR) 2-FEB 34 1980 52 57 1994 74
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 45 70 46 57 / 0 0 20 10
MCO 46 71 50 59 / 0 0 20 20
MLB 49 72 47 63 / 0 10 20 20
VRB 48 72 47 64 / 0 10 20 30
LEE 42 70 46 55 / 0 10 20 10
SFB 44 71 47 57 / 0 0 20 10
ORL 45 71 50 57 / 0 0 20 20
FPR 48 72 47 64 / 0 20 20 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-
247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.
FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-
347-447-547-647-747.
AM...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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