787
FXUS62 KMLB 142346
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
746 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEK. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40-50 MPH, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM SLOW-MOVING STORMS.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES 100-107 AND
A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL-HYDRATED AND SEEK BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR A/C DURING
THE HEAT OF THE DAY. FOR MORE INFO ABOUT HEATRISK AND HEAT
SAFETY TIPS, VISIT HEAT.GOV.
- A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS PERSISTS AT ALL
CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC BEACHES. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD
AND NEVER ENTER THE WATER ALONE!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS BUT IS
GENERALLY WEAK AND SHOULD SEE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSH
INLAND NEAR TO JUST WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ALREADY STARTING TO
SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, GREATEST STORM COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING, GENERALLY NEAR TO
SOUTHEAST OF I-4 CORRIDOR AND NEAR/INLAND OF I-95 WHERE SEA
BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ARE FAVORED. WESTERLY STEERING
WINDS DECREASE THROUGH LATE DAY, AND WHILE SOME SHIFTS IN STORMS
BACK TO THE COAST WILL OCCUR, STORM MOTION MAY STILL BE SLOW AND
ERRATIC ACROSS THE AREA.
DEEP MOISTURE (PW 2-2.2") AND SLOW STORM MOTION WILL LEAD TO
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH PERSISTENT STORMS, PRODUCING A QUICK 2-4
INCHES OF RAINFALL LOCALLY IN A 60-90 MIN PERIOD. WHILE THIS WILL
MOSTLY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ISSUES, THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SPOT
OR TWO THAT SEES TOTALS BETWEEN 4-6 INCHES, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT. THEREFORE, A MARGINAL RISK (5-14%)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 15Z SOUNDING FROM THE CAPE SHOWS SOME
POCKETS OF DRIER AIR ALOFT, WHICH WILL ALSO SUPPORT STRONG GUSTS TO
40-50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING FROM A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
HOWEVER, AS IS USUAL WITH SUMMER CONVECTION, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE
LOCALIZED DAMAGING GUSTS TO 60 MPH FROM A STORM OR TWO. TEMPS AT
500MB ARE AROUND -6 TO -7C, WHICH MAY ALSO LEAD TO ISOLATED REPORTS
OF SMALL HAIL.
CONVECTION DIMINISHES AND SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE
EVENING, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FORECAST OVERNIGHT. REMAINING WARM
AND HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MIDWEEK, CONTINUING OFFSHORE (W/SW) LOW
LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. PW VALUES OF 1.8-2.0 INCHES WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD STILL SEE THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE FORM EACH AFTERNOON, BUT THE OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD
STALL THE SEA BREEZE NEAR TO JUST INLAND OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FOCUSING TOWARD THE COAST. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EACH DAY, WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS
CONTINUING TO BE POSSIBLE. MAIN STORM THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCING MINOR FLOODING.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AND PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 100-107 DEGREES EACH DAY.
LITTLE RELIEF WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. THIS WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS
THE REGION EACH DAY. FOR MORE INFO ABOUT HEATRISK AND HEAT SAFETY
TIPS, VISIT HEAT.GOV.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
NUDGE NORTHWEST ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING
BACK SOUTH AS A PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT CROSSES THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA AND STALL, KEEPING RIDGE AXIS EITHER
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY, FOCUSED
TOWARD THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOW LEVEL WINDS
MAY BE ABLE TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY INTO LATE WEEK ALLOWING THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND AND FOCUSING
LATE DAY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WEST OF I-95. HOWEVER, AN OFFSHORE
STEERING FLOW WILL STILL HELP PUSH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS BACK
TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH EACH EVENING.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE HEAT INTO LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HUMID
CONDITIONS STILL PRODUCING MOSTLY 100-107 HEAT INDEX VALUES EACH
DAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK EACH DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
MOSTLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
WATERS, LEADING TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
W/SW WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME S/SE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMS AND SHIFTS INLAND EACH
DAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS, BUT MAY
BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15-18 KNOTS OFFSHORE EACH EVENING. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET.
MAIN CONCERN FOR BOATERS WILL BE FOR SCATTERED OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS, PRIMARILY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT EACH DAY (INCLUDING THROUGH
THIS EVENING). MAIN STORM THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34 KTS, AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE
VICINITY OF ANY STORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
TS MAY NOT BE DONE FOR THE EVENING FOR KMCO AND OTHER ORLANDO
AREA TERMINALS. WAITING ON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INVOF THE AREA TO
PUSH EASTWARD BEFORE SOUNDING THE ALL CLEAR. ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS ON THIS BOUNDARY COULD ALSO IMPACT THE COAST FROM KTIX-
KMLB AGAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE NOT MUCH HELP, SO WILL NEED TO AMD TAFS
AS TS DEVELOPS (OR DOESN'T). ISO -SHRA INVOF KVRB-KSUA, AND
CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA HERE ARE VERY LOW. QUIET
OVERNIGHT ONCE CONVECTION DISSIPATES OR MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT, THEN PICK BACK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS
FROM THE WSW-SW MONDAY MORNING. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED ALONG MOST OF THE COAST, CURRENTLY ONLY FORECAST TO MAKE A
SLOW/LATE INLAND PUSH FROM KMLB-KSUA, EARLIER TO THE SOUTH,
SHIFTING WINDS SE-SSE AT 5-10 KTS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON-EVENING AS CHAOTIC STORM BOUNDARIES
WILL AGAIN DRIVE TS DEVELOPMENT, BUT GENERAL MODEL TRENDS CALL FOR
TS TO INITIALLY DEVELOP INVOF OF THE NORTHERN/INLAND TERMINALS
AFTER 18Z (SHRA COULD POP AS EARLY AS 16Z), THEN WORK EAST AND
SOUTH, COLLIDING WITH THE PINNED SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST IN THE
LATE EVENING AND TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL TS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 77 92 77 92 / 30 60 30 50
MCO 76 93 76 93 / 30 40 20 50
MLB 77 93 77 93 / 50 60 40 60
VRB 75 93 75 93 / 40 60 40 60
LEE 78 91 77 92 / 10 30 10 30
SFB 77 93 77 94 / 30 50 20 50
ORL 77 92 77 93 / 30 40 20 50
FPR 75 92 74 92 / 40 60 30 60
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...HALEY
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