364  
FXUS62 KMLB 170239  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
1040 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WAS TO ADD A CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS OVER MARTIN COUNTY AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OKEECHOBEE AND ST  
LUCIE AS YET ANOTHER CONVERGENT BAND HAS SET UP. IT APPEARS TO BE  
ANCHORED AT THE WEST END OF GRAND BAHAMA OR POSSIBLY NORTHERN GREAT  
ABACO. THINK THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WOULD BE MARTIN COUNTY  
WITH NOT AS MUCH INLAND PENETRATION AS WE SAW THIS EVENING.  
TEMPERATURES REMAINING VERY MILD, HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S  
MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  
 
WEDNESDAY...SAME STORY, DIFFERENT DAY. NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN  
WITH MID AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY  
OF DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. LOW-  
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE A  
SE/ESE WIND AROUND 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO A  
MORE ESE/E DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH AS THE EAST COAST SEA  
BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 
A FEW LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGH TERRITORY AGAIN,  
ESPECIALLY MELBOURNE, DAYTONA, SANFORD, AND VERO BEACH WHERE RECORDS  
ARE A BIT LOWER (PLEASE REFER TO CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). HIGHS WILL  
BE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR. ISOLD SHRA PUSHING ONSHORE MAY AFFECT SUA OVERNIGHT WITH BRIEF  
MVFR CONDS. PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTH/INTERIOR  
TERMINALS (LEE/DAB/SFB/MCO) AROUND SUNRISE BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN  
TAFS. ON WED, E-SE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BUT SUBSIDENT AIRMASS WILL  
PRODUCE VERY LIMITED (IF ANY) SHOWER ACTIVITY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.  
TONIGHT...SSE-SE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT AND APPROACHING 15 KT  
SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET WITH SEAS REMAINING IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE.  
 
WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DROPPING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH  
WILL RESULT IN A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION ACROSS THE FAR  
NORTHERN WATERS IN THE MORNING BUT OTHERWISE DIRECTIONS WILL BE  
SE/ESE. AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS WINDS WILL BACK TO  
A MORE ESE/E DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE  
10 KT OR LESS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND 10-15 KT TO THE SOUTH.  
SEAS OF 2-3 FT CAN BE EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
RECORD WARM LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY, OCT. 17:  
 
DATE TEMP YEAR  
DAB 17-OCT 76 1998  
MCO 17-OCT 74 1989  
SFB 17-OCT 72 1959  
MLB 17-OCT 75 2007  
VRB 17-OCT 79 1990  
FPR 17-OCT 77 1985  
 
RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY, OCT. 17:  
 
DATE TEMP YEAR  
DAB 17-OCT 90 1925  
MCO 17-OCT 95 1925  
SFB 17-OCT 90 1952  
MLB 17-OCT 90 1975  
VRB 17-OCT 90 1974  
FPR 17-OCT 93 1906  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 73 90 72 85 / 10 10 10 40  
MCO 73 93 73 90 / 10 10 10 20  
MLB 77 90 75 88 / 10 10 10 20  
VRB 74 89 74 88 / 10 10 10 20  
LEE 76 92 74 89 / 10 10 10 30  
SFB 73 92 73 88 / 10 10 10 30  
ORL 75 93 75 90 / 10 10 10 30  
FPR 73 88 74 87 / 10 10 10 20  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
KELLY/NEGRON  
 
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