196
FXUS62 KMLB 101827
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
227 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
- COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS. THIS DIURNAL COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO MID-WEEK.
- SOME STORMS AND MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE LATER TODAY AND MONDAY.
PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS, HAIL, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
- HIGHS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100'S. TEMPERATURES BECOME MORE SEASONABLE
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
INTO MID/LATE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND
CONDITIONS HUMID.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...ANOTHER VERY WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS ECFL WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE U80S TO L90S AND PERHAPS A FEW M90S. PEAK HEAT
INDICES WILL, AGAIN, TOP OUT IN THE M-U90S TO LOW 100'S (LOCALLY).
THESE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK. THE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED AGAIN
BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD, BUT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER INLAND THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. WITH EXISTING DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA, ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP FIRST
ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 THRU MID AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE INCREASING UP
TO NUMEROUS (55-65%) LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY/MID-EVENING AND
EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR COVERAGE WARNING AREA. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS ECFL. STORM STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT ACTIVITY BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST. PRIMARY STORM THREATS REMAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 40-55 MPH, HAIL TO COIN-SIZE, AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH LOCALLY. THERE IS A LESS THAN 2% CHANCE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO.
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND MOVE OFF THE COAST THRU
MID-LATE (SOUTH) EVENING, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WARM, PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF, WITH
VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH CONDITIONS MUGGY. WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM.
MON-MON NIGHT...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL
PROMOTE A HIGHER THAN NORMAL (30-70%) DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM
THREAT - HIGHEST SOUTHWARD AND ALONG THE COAST. THE LATE DAY SEA
BREEZE COLLISION WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA AGAIN.
PERIODIC SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALSO AID THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS, AGAIN, OUTLINED ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FL IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS. PRIMARY STORM THREATS CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES, STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (40-60 MPH), HAIL
TO COIN-SIZE, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WHILE A LESS THAN 2%
CHANCE OF A BRIEF TORNADO EXISTS FOR MOST OF ECFL, A 2-4% CHANCE
EXISTS FOR A PORTION OF VOLUSIA COUNTY; NEAR DAYTONA BEACH
NORTHWARD.
HEAT IMPACTS CONTINUE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE U80S TO L90S (SOUTH)
WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES STILL IN THE M90S TO POTENTIALLY L100S. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. THESE
HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MODERATE TO
(ISOLATED) MAJOR HEATRISK (MOSTLY INLAND FROM ST. LUCIE/MARTIN
COASTS).
A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT. SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES DO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THRU LATE EVENING MON,
BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AN ISOLATED STORM
PERSIST OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY (& UPPER
ENERGY) AS CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED.
TUE-SAT...A WEAK FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS CENTRAL FL AROUND SUNRISE TUE
MORNING, CONTINUING TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY ENDING
UP ACROSS SOUTH FL LATE. FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT/PLENTIFUL ENERGY IN THE MID-LEVELS;
WE WILL SEE A HIGH CHANCE (65-70%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUE
WITH CONVECTION IN PLAY DURING THE MORNING AS WELL AS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WINDS TURN NERLY PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
AND REMAIN MOSTLY ONSHORE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WED (40-70%, HIGHEST
SOUTH OF ORLANDO). AN OVERALL DRYING TREND IS FORECAST THU-SAT AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE PENINSULA, BUT WE MAY STILL
SEE A SMALL 10-20% POP THREAT AT LEAST ON THU. TEMPS RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES ON TUE (IN THE 80S) BEHIND THE FRONT,
THEN CONTINUE TO RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK. THE
NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHES LATE WORK-WEEK, BUT IT IS UNCLEAR IF
IT CAN PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL FL AND IF IT DOES, WILL
NOT HAVE MUCH FAN-FARE WITH IT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW (OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE) WILL
"BACK" ONSHORE AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH DELAYED SEA
BREEZE FORMATION. A LIGHT S/SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT,
POST-CONVECTION. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST EARLY-
MID AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA BREEZE, WITH GREATER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. THE STORM STEERING REMAINS
OFFSHORE SO MARINERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY &
WESTWARD FOR DEVELOPING/APPROACHING INCLIMATE WEATHER. STORM
THREATS INCLUDE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
HAIL TO COIN-SIZE, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLD WATERSPOUT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SEAS GENERALLY 1-3 FT AND BOTH WINDS/SEAS
LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF STORMS.
MON-THU...AN INCREASED SHOWER/STORM THREAT CONTINUES MON-WED OF NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE REMAINS AMPLE AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PENINSULA EACH DAY/EVENING ALLOW FOR STORMS TO PUSH BACK TO
THE COAST. A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE LOCAL WATERS MON NIGHT,
SLOWLY EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON TUE, BUT RESIDUAL
MOISTURE REMAINS. A FEW STORMS MON WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HAIL TO COIN-SIZE AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THERE WILL BE VARIABILITY IN THE WIND COMPONENT, BUT SPEEDS
GENERALLY AOB 15 KTS. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS MON EVENING, QUICKLY
TURN TO NERLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATE MON OVERNIGHT INTO TUE
CONTINUING MAINLY ONSHORE THRU THE REST OF THE PERIOD, BUT MAY
VEER TO OFFSHORE AT NIGHT THRU MID-WEEK. SEAS INITIALLY 1-3 FT
BUILD TO 3-5 FT TUE, FURTHER TO 6-7 FT OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED, SLOWLY SUBSIDING AGAIN LATER WED INTO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
SW TO W WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY SO EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP A LITTLE EARLIER AT COASTAL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, ESE TO SE AT 12-15 KNOTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. SHRA/TSRA WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
AS WELL AS GET SPARKED BY INLAND MOVING EAST COAST BREEZE.
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG
STORMS INCLUDING WIND GUSTS 35+ KNOTS AND BRIEF BUT SIGNIFICANT
CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS. CONVECTION WILL PUSH BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST
THRU 01-02Z IN WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE.
AMENDED DAB TO BRING THE TEMPO FORWARD BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
WILL ADD A VCTS FOR LEE. WILL ADD TEMPOS TO MCO/SFB ROUGHLY
21Z-23Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY OVERNIGHT
SETTLING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY LATE TUESDAY. DIURNAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY, POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY, AND MAY PROVIDE SOME DECENT
"WETTING" RAINS FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOME STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS THIS
ACTIVITY PUSHES BACK TOWARDS THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. STORM THREATS
INCLUDE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, STRONG GUSTY (ERRATIC) WINDS,
HAIL TO COIN-SIZE, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. DAILY SEA BREEZE
COLLISIONS WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN PENINSULA LATE TODAY AND AGAIN
ON MONDAY AS COVERAGE GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE UNIFORMLY CONSISTENT
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS A THREAT
FOR POTENTIAL NEW "FIRE-STARTS" FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES.
GENERALLY A LIGHT (5-10 MPH) SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND COMPONENT WILL
"BACK" ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH WITH SEA BREEZE PASSAGE
AND SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDICES OF
95-103 DEGREES. DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY GOOD THIS
AFTERNOON, PERHAPS VERY GOOD TOWARD THE KISSIMMEE RIVER, AND FAIR TO
GENERALLY GOOD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 73 88 71 83 / 20 60 30 60
MCO 74 90 73 86 / 20 50 20 70
MLB 77 89 75 85 / 40 60 40 70
VRB 77 90 74 86 / 50 60 50 70
LEE 73 90 72 86 / 10 20 30 70
SFB 73 90 71 86 / 10 50 20 70
ORL 74 90 73 86 / 20 50 20 70
FPR 77 90 74 86 / 40 60 50 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...KELLY
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