688
FXUS62 KMLB 030545
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
145 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
- UNSETTLED TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK, WITH A 50 TO 70% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 50 MPH.
THERE IS A 5 TO 10% CHANCE OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN, WHICH MAY
CAUSE FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
- ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK, PUSHING THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY ARRIVE FROM THE EAST LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. IF THIS OCCURS, RAIN CHANCES AND THE RISK OF LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES WOULD BOTH INCREASE
BEGINNING FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
-----------SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW-----------
EARLY THIS MONDAY MORNING, A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM LAKE ERIE TO LOUISIANA. THIS HAS MAINTAINED A BREAK IN
THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS IT
STALLS OVER GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP NEGATIVE
SURFACE PRESSURE ANOMALIES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND PRESERVE A
SOUTHWESTERLY OR SOUTHERLY BACKGROUND FLOW REGIME OVER FLORIDA
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THEREFORE, THE RIBBON OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE, WITH PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES, SHOULD REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY THIS WEEK.
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, THE W ATLANTIC RIDGE IS POISED TO STRENGTHEN
AND BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE OF CAPE HATTERAS. AS THIS OCCURS, AN
AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA,
ALLOWING ONSHORE FLOW TO RESUME FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS.
BENEATH THE SPRAWLING BERMUDA HIGH, THE 02/12Z ENSEMBLE SUITE
CONTINUED TO TRACK AN INVERTED TROUGH WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
THIS WEEK. LED BY THE EPS AND GEPS, 70-75% OF THE MEMBERS PUSH
THIS FEATURE NEAR OR DIRECTLY OVER FLORIDA. THE REMAINING MEMBERS
RECURVE THE DISTURBANCE EAST OF FLORIDA. WITH THE FAVORED SOLUTION,
A COMBINATION OF POSITIVE VORTICITY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WOULD
REACH OUR AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER, THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL CONFIDENCE THAT THE STRONG BERMUDA
HIGH WILL HOLD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. BY SUNDAY AND
NEXT MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR NORTH OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA, WITH MOISTURE VALUES CLOSE TO NORMAL.
-------SENSIBLE WEATHER & IMPACTS-------
TODAY - TUESDAY...
GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION THAT
IS EXPECTED EACH DAY, 50-70% RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
EARLY THIS WEEK.
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS OR A ROGUE STORM MAY FORM OVER OUR NORTHERN
COMMUNITIES THROUGH THE MORNING, HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TODAY MAY RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF I-4, WHERE
BETTER HEATING IS FORECAST. NORTHEAST-MOVING STORMS AND OUTFLOWS
MAY INTERACT WITH A PINNED SEA BREEZE SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL TO
ENHANCE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. AS IN RECENT DAYS, A FEW GUSTY STORMS SHOULD
BE ANTICIPATED, WITH WIND GUSTS FROM 45 TO 50 MPH IN THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY. THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-4
INCHES, WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT FOR A LOW CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WEST OF ORLANDO. ON TUESDAY, STORM MOTIONS SHOULD
BE SLOWER BUT STILL FAVOR A NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS WEAKLY OFFSHORE. SIMILAR TO TODAY, WE SHOULD SEE A
SEA BREEZE FORM AND MOVE JUST A BIT FARTHER INLAND (NEAR AND WEST
OF I-95, SOUTH OF THE CAPE). THIS SHOULD FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
EXPECT A BIT MORE SUNSHINE, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO HEAT BACK
INTO THE LOWER 90S. HEAT INDICES TOP OUT FROM 100-106 IN MOST SPOTS.
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...
SE TO E FLOW RETURNS FOR MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD.
AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT, COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD ANTICIPATE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE ACTIVITY SHIFTS OVER THE INTERIOR. NEAR-NORMAL MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL SUPPORT 40-60% STORM CHANCES ALONG THE COAST, RISING
TO 60-80% FARTHER INLAND. SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS.
FRIDAY - WEEKEND...
AS MENTIONED IN THE OVERVIEW, THE FAVORED SOLUTION IS FOR THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE TO BRING MORE ENERGY AND MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND ACROSS THE STATE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. WE MAY
BEGIN TO SEE ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING,
WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN FLORIDA BY
AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW, OUR RAIN/STORM CHANCES ARE 50-70% NEAR AND
NORTH OF ORLANDO AND AS HIGH AS 60-80% TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY IF THE TROUGH IS SHARPER AND MORE
PRONOUNCED AS IT APPROACHES.
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, IT DOES APPEAR THIS ENERGY SHOULD BE LIFTING
AWAY FROM THE AREA, RETURNING US TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONDITIONS WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED DAILY STORM COVERAGE.
THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
AT OUR BEACHES LATE THIS WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH NEAR-NORMAL CONDITIONS LIKELY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, KEEPING
AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. MARINERS
SHOULD AGAIN BE WATCHING THE WESTERN SKY FOR OFFSHORE-MOVING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD, PUSHING NORTH OF THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP, WITH A DOMINANT ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO FRESHEN OUT OF THE
EAST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE OPEN
ATLANTIC.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-15 KT TODAY, PERHAPS TURNING
SOUTHEASTERLY AT THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL LATE. WINDS
BECOME SSE ON TUESDAY AND SE ON WEDNESDAY, 5-12 KT. WINDS TURN
EASTERLY ON THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO FRESHEN, 10-15 KT. SEAS 1-2 FT
NEARSHORE, UP TO 3 FT OFFSHORE, THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY,
SEAS BUILD TO 2-3 FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE LATE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
VFR CONDS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z WITH CIGS AOA 120. ON MON, VERY
SIMILAR PATTERN WITH SW FLOW PICKING UP WITH BETTER DAYTIME HEATING,
GUSTING 18-20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. CAMS
SHOW A SLOWER START TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION TODAY WITH HIGHEST
COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE MLB-SUA WHERE THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL BE SITTING. HAVE INSERTED A TEMPO TS FOR
THOSE TERMINALS STARTING AT 19Z. LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT TEMPOS AT
MCO/SFB STARTING AT 17Z. LIGHTNING, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, AND GUSTY
WINDS 35 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT TO
AVIATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 89 74 90 74 / 50 20 60 20
MCO 90 75 91 75 / 50 20 60 10
MLB 91 75 90 75 / 60 30 50 10
VRB 91 74 90 75 / 70 30 50 10
LEE 87 75 89 75 / 60 40 60 10
SFB 90 75 91 75 / 50 20 60 20
ORL 90 76 91 75 / 50 20 60 20
FPR 91 74 90 74 / 60 30 50 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEIL
AVIATION...KELLY
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