085
FXUS62 KMLB 311119
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
719 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH MOISTURE SUPPORTS
ABOVE NORMAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES, INCLUDING DURING THE
OVERNIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.
- PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH,
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.
- MUGGY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE
TRIPLE DIGITS THROUGH THE WEEK. BE SURE TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS
IN THE SHADE OR AIR CONDITIONING IF SPENDING PROLONGED TIME
OUTDOORS TO AVOID THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
TODAY-TUESDAY...A MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN US GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST, WHILE
REMAINING FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE ABLE TO
TRANSIT FLORIDA AND THE GULF ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK.
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC DOWNSTREAM OF THE HIGH WEAKENS
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS SOME, BUT THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF FLORIDA,
CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW IN A PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE (PWATS
2.0-2.2", ROUGHLY IN THE 75TH-95TH PERCENTILES FOR AUGUST). THE
GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE
OVERNIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS THAT MAY BRUSH THE COAST, THEN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP INLAND/NEAR THE COAST ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A QUICK/DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IN THE LATE
MORNINGS TO EARLY AFTERNOONS, BEFORE PUSHING INLAND THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOONS AND INTO THE EVENINGS. HOWEVER, BROAD
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT COULD
KICK OFF ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AT ANY POINT.
THIS WILL ALSO KEEP OUR CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON STORMS ABOVE NORMAL
(50-70% TODAY, PUSHING TOWARDS 80% TUESDAY), EVEN THOUGH THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION AND HIGHEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASINGLY LOW-SKINNY PROFILES FAVORABLE
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, AND MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND
-5 C IN THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS.
WHILE MOST CONVECTION SHOULD MARCH INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE,
STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MAY EVEN BREAK DOWN,
ALLOWING CHAOTIC BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TO DICTATE STORM MOTION.
STORMS OR HEAVY SHOWERS THAT BECOME SLOW/ERRATIC COULD DELIVER A
QUICK 2-3" OF RAINFALL LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN, LOW-LYING, OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THERE
IS A VERY LOW (LESS THAN 5%) CHANCE FOR ONE OR TWO SPOTS TO
RECEIVE +4" OF RAINFALL, LEADING TO GREATER FLOODING IMPACTS.
STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY SHOWERS WILL ABLE BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS 40-50 MPH FROM WATER LOADING. OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE U80S-M90S.
WE CAN THANK THE ONSHORE FLOW, CLOUD COVER, AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FOR MAKING LATE AUGUST CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN EARLY AUGUST. PEAK
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN L-M100S, AND MINOR TO MODERATE HEATRISK
IMPACTS FORECAST, WITH SPOTS OF MAJOR AROUND THE ORLANDO METRO
AREA AND COAST. VERY HUMID CONDITIONS AFTER A QUICK RAINFALL CAN
CAUSE HUMIDITY AND HEAT INDICES TO SPIKE, INCREASING THE RISK OF
HEAT STRESS. BE SURE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY, EVEN WHEN RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGH.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN US SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE BEING FLATTENED BY A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, FURTHER
WEAKENING THE BERMUDA HIGH AND POSSIBLY ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS TO DROP TOWARDS FLORIDA. LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE, BUT
MAY BECOME LIGHTER AND DEVELOP MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT,
ESPECIALLY BY LATE THURSDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR PUERTO RICO (THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY) TO PASS NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH MOISTURE, COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTS. 18Z/00Z DETERMINISTIC ECM/GFS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A WEAKENING WAVE TRACKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA, WHILE ENSEMBLES SHOW MORE SPREAD AND THE WAVE
POTENTIALLY SWINGING UP TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WORTH NOTING
FEWER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEVELOP A TRACKABLE FEATURE THAN 24-HOURS
AGO. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES A LOW (20%) OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE WAVE MOVES NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
7-DAYS. RUN-TO RUN QPF HASN'T BEEN CONSISTENT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TRACK OF THE WAVE, BUT HAVE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 4", AND THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS
OUTLINED ALL OF FLORIDA IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SWELL FROM
BACK WHEN DOLLY WAS A TROPICAL STORM ARRIVING MIDWEEK, WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE BEACHES.
EVEN WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE STAYING SOUTH IN THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE, MODEL PWATS STILL PUSH TOWARDS EXTREMES OF 2.2-2.4". THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR BROAD, WELL ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
50-70% APPROACHING 80% IN THE LATE MORNING TO EVENING HOURS, AND
LINGERING 20-40% CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING,
GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL PATTERN OF THE PREVIOUS DAYS
(ATLANTIC CONVECTION OVERNIGHT, INLAND CONVECTION DURING THE DAY),
THOUGH MORNING CHANCES DO INCREASE A BIT. INSTABILITY REMAINS
MUTED IN THE VERY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE AND WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES, BUT GUSTY WINDS FROM WATER LOADING WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ENOUGH TO LET HIGHS
TICK UP A FEW DEGREES, BUT REMAIN IN THE U80S-L90S. PEAK
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TICK UP CLOSER TO THE M100S, BUT HEATRISK
IMPACTS REMAIN MOSTLY MINOR TO MODERATE WITH JUST A FEW POCKETS OF
MAJOR SPRINKLED NEAR THE ORLANDO METRO AND THE COAST.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES. ALOFT A PAIR OF DEEPENING TROUGHS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE LATTER
POTENTIALLY DIGGING ALL THE WAY DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD,
CAUSE THE RIDGE TO AMPLIFY AND RETROGRADE BACK TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
US. AT THE SURFACE THE BERMUDA HIGH RETREATS FARTHER OUT TO TO
SEA, CAUSING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BECOME VERY WEAK. THE
LIGHT FLOW OFFERS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS TO GRADUALLY BECOME BIGGER DISAGREEMENTS, AND IN THIS
PARTICULAR CASE, WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL BE. 00Z GUIDANCE
IS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 18Z, WHERE THE GFS INTRODUCED
DRIER AIR WHILE THE ECM REMAINED VERY MOIST, WITH BOTH PACKAGES
NOW KEEPING HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE AT THIS JUNCTURE. THERE IS ALSO
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR SOUTH THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
WILL SAG, POSSIBLY REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND WHETHER WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES OR FLOW BECOMES LIGHT. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST STAYS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 01Z NBM, WHICH IS DRIVEN BY THE
18Z GUIDANCE, AND CALLS FOR RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND TO
DROP A BIT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD ON THE HOTTER THAN NORMAL SIDE, WITH INLAND
HIGHS CREEPING TOWARDS THE M90S, AND THE COAST MORE INTO THE L90S.
PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
TODAY-FRIDAY...GENERALLY FAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS FOR BOATING, BUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL REMAIN A HAZARD,
INCLUDING DURING THE OVERNIGHTS. THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE BERMUDA
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF FLORIDA AND THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS, CONTINUING ONSHORE (E-SE) FLOW 5-10 KTS, CLOSER TO 10 KTS
IN THE AFTERNOONS FROM SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MAY WEAKEN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK,
RESULTING IN LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. SEAS 2-3 FT, UP TO 4
FT WELL OFFSHORE IN THE GULF STREAM MIDWEEK. ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DAILY PATTERN OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE OVERNIGHTS TO EARLY MORNINGS, THEN PUSHING
ONSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/LIGHTNING STORMS
WITH ONSHORE FLOW. TAFS BEGIN WITH VCSH AT KDAB/KMLB/KFPR/KSUA.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT
5-10KTS AFTER 15Z-18Z. VCTS AND TEMPO TSRA GROUPS ARE FORECAST IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN 16Z-22Z. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ACROSS ECFL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 89 76 88 75 / 50 20 60 20
MCO 92 75 91 75 / 60 20 70 20
MLB 89 76 89 77 / 50 20 60 20
VRB 89 75 89 75 / 50 30 70 30
LEE 91 76 90 75 / 60 20 70 30
SFB 91 75 91 76 / 60 20 70 20
ORL 91 76 91 76 / 60 20 70 20
FPR 89 75 89 75 / 60 30 70 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...FEHLING
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