609  
FXUS62 KMLB 210220  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
1015 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
A FEW UPDATES TO THE FORECAST, THE MAIN BEING TO REISSUE THE WIND  
ADVISORY FOR SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS  
REACHING CRITERIA WILL PROBABLY BE MORE MARGINAL COMPARED TO THE  
ONGOING LONG DURATION CONDITIONS OVER BREVARD/VOLUSIA COS, METAR AND  
ESPECIALLY MESONET OBS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT STRONGER  
WINDS/GUSTS HAVE BEEN BUILDING SW INTO THE REMAINDER OF CWA IN THE  
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW CURRENTLY OVER SWFL AND MOVING WESTWARD.  
 
OTHERWISE, HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM ORLANDO AND  
COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD, AND CONFINED REMAINING TS CHANCES TO THE FAR  
SOUTHERN CWA, MAINLY THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM.  
 
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BREVARD AND VOLUSIA  
COUNTIES, WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE TREASURE COAST.  
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED OVER THE  
NEXT FEW DAYS. IMPACTS WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH  
TIDE, THE NEXT OF WHICH WILL BE 1030 PM TO 1130 PM TONIGHT, AND  
MONDAY FROM 1130 AM TO 1230 PM.  
 
COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR PROTECTING BEACHFRONT  
PROPERTY. IN ADDITION, LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 11 FEET ARE  
EXPECTED IN THE SURF ZONE, WITH A HIGH TO EXTREME RISK OF RIP  
CURRENTS. ENTERING THE WATER IS NOT ADVISED. FOR COMPLETE  
INFORMATION ON ALL OF THE PRODUCTS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT, SEE EACH  
PRODUCT LISTED ON THE HOME PAGE OF OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
VFR TO SPOTTY MVFR CIGS MCO-MLB NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH  
PASSING MVFR-IFR VSBYS/CIGS VRB-SUA THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. BULK OF THE  
PRECIP WILL SHIFT SW/INLAND THEREAFTER. REDEVELOPING HIGHER END MVFR  
TO VFR CIGS BKN030-035 TOMORROW FROM AROUND 15Z ONWARD. STRONG GUSTY  
NE WINDS 20-25G30-35KT OVERNIGHT FOR THE MLB-SUA CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT  
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP FOR THE  
INLAND AERODROMES AROUND 15-17Z.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 335 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2020/  
 
...DANGEROUS SURF, BEACH, BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID  
WEEK...  
 
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST  
U.S. CONTINUES THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BREEZY TO WINDY  
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SUSTAINED WINDS 20-25 MPH ALONG  
THE COASTS WITH GUST UP TO 30-35MPH. INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE A BIT  
LESS, SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP 25-30 MPH.  
 
SOME DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO MAKES ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA BY THE  
AFTERNOON, LESSENING RAIN CHANCES TO 20-30 PERCENT. EXCEPT FOR  
THE TREASURE COAST WHERE HIGH MOISTURE THROUGH THE EVENING LEADS  
TO 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A MARINE  
INFLUENCE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S. NIGHT TIME  
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.  
 
TUESDAY-SATURDAY...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE  
AREA WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SE STATES BY MIDWEEK, WEAKENING THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LESSENING WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY  
THROUGH MIDWEEK. AIRMASS DRYING WILL DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES TO JUST  
20 PERCENT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH WED. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP A  
STRONG MARINE INFLUENCE, KEEPING TEMPERATURE RANGES IN CHECK WITH  
HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO  
LOW 70S. RETURN FLOW AROUND PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING RIDGE COMBINED  
WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS UPSTREAM LOOK TO INCREASE RAIN CHCS A  
LITTLE MORE TO THE SCT CATEGORY INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) SEAS FORECAST TO REMAIN  
DANGEROUS, WELL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. HAZARDOUS  
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER ALL THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK  
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF VARIOUS SWELL SOURCES AND LOCAL WINDS.  
SEAS MAY DIMINISH TO CAUTION CRITERIA PERHAPS NEAR SHORE BY AROUND  
THURSDAY.  
 
HIGH TIDES SUNDAY MONDAY/TUE  
 
DAYTONA BCH 1119 PM 1153 AM 1211 AM  
SEBASTIAN 1107 PM 1146 AM 1158 PM  
FORT PIERCE 1124 PM 1203 PM 1215 AM  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR IS FORECAST TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD  
STAGE THIS EVENING, THEN REMAIN STEADY IN MODERATE FLOODING BEFORE  
VERY SLOWLY DECREASING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE SAINT JOHNS  
RIVER ABOVE LAKE HARNEY IS FORECAST TO REACH ACTION STAGE LATER  
THIS EVENING, AND REMAIN STEADY IN ACTION STAGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL  
TIDES ARE PREVENTING NORMAL DISCHARGE ON THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER. REFER  
TO FLOOD STATEMENTS FROM NWS MELBOURNE FOR THE RIVER LEVELS AND  
FORECASTS NEAR ASTOR, WHICH WILL BE UPDATED DAILY WHILE THE RIVER  
REMAINS IN FLOOD STAGE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 76 82 71 82 / 30 30 20 20  
MCO 74 83 69 85 / 30 30 10 20  
MLB 79 83 74 84 / 40 30 20 20  
VRB 79 85 74 85 / 60 40 20 20  
LEE 71 85 68 84 / 30 20 10 20  
SFB 74 83 69 85 / 30 30 10 20  
ORL 72 83 70 85 / 30 30 10 20  
FPR 80 84 73 85 / 60 40 20 20  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-  
INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST.  
LUCIE.  
 
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR INDIAN RIVER-  
MARTIN-ST. LUCIE.  
 
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-  
NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD.  
 
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN  
RIVER-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD.  
 
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-  
NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.  
 
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR  
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-  
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-  
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO  
JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO  
SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO  
SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.  
 
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-  
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-  
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER  
INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-  
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-  
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
RODRIGUEZ/WATSON/SPRATT  
 
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