976
FXUS62 KMLB 230557
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
157 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
- CONTINUED HIGH RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES 105+ DEGREES, APPROACHING HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 946 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL AND
IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 23Z SOUNDING AT THE CAPE AND
GOES TPW IMAGERY SHOWING PW VALUES AROUND 2-2.3" ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY STILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN LOW (~20-30 PERCENT). SHOULD ANY ISOLATED STORMS
OR HEAVIER SHOWERS REDEVELOP THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL BE MILD, WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
NOW-TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE ONGOING
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A PARTICULAR FOCUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MELBOURNE AREA. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING IN THESE STORMS,
PRODUCING A QUICK 1" TO 2.5" IN AN HOUR OR SO. PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN, LOW-LYING, AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS
THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTH TOWARD THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND TREASURE COAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON. GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTH. AT TIMES, WIND GUSTS OF
40-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS NEW UPDRAFTS FORM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF STORM OUTFLOW AND INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE. THUS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET, NAMELY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR (ORLANDO WESTWARD), OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 70S
FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING TOWARD THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY
AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE PENINSULA. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS FORECAST TO VEER SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON,
ALLOWING THE EAST COAST BREEZE TO FORM AND PUSH SLIGHTLY FARTHER
INLAND COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT WESTWARD TREND (80%+ NEAR AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95). FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH, AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN. FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATER FOR AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER AS LATE AS 9-10 PM WITH A QUICK DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE
THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE, SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THURSDAY-MONDAY (PREVIOUS)...BY THURSDAY, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
BROADEN AND MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THEN, HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
ATLANTIC INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS EVEN SUGGEST THE SURFACE
AND MID-LEVEL RIDGES WILL BOTH BE OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BY SATURDAY. DRIER AIR, WITH PWATS FALLING NEAR TO BELOW
1.5", IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO NEAR NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (POPS 30-60%). HOWEVER, HAVE CAPPED POPS BETWEEN
20-40% (BELOW NBM, WHICH HAS A KNOWN HIGH BIAS FOR POPS) FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DESPITE AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND, DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH. SHOULD
THIS FORECAST HOLD, POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. WITH LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID-90S ONCE
AGAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR THE
WEEKEND, SHOULD HIGHER MOISTURE RETURN TO THE AREA AS FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
OUTSIDE OF LIGHTNING STORMS, FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE WESTWARD
ALONG THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE
IN PLACE, MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, AS LIGHT SURFACE FLOW TURNS MORE
ONSHORE (ESPECIALLY WITH THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON). SEAS 1-3
FT WITH WINDS 10-15 KT OR LESS, EXCEPT WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE
VICINITY OF STORMS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
VFR CONDS THROUGH EARLY WED BUT DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS AND WILL
SUPPORT NMRS SHRA/TSRA WED AFTN AND EARLY EVE. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNRISE WILL TURN SE AT COASTAL TERMINALS
BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BY 16Z-17Z. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SPARK SCT
TSRA NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS SO HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS THERE
BEFORE CONVECTION PROGRESSES INLAND. HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED
OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY SO HAVE INSERTED A TEMPO
FOR MCO/SFB/LEE 21Z-24Z WITH LINGERING VCSH A LITTLE PAST 00Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 88 75 90 76 / 80 30 60 10
MCO 90 74 93 76 / 80 30 70 20
MLB 89 77 91 79 / 70 30 60 10
VRB 90 74 91 76 / 60 30 60 10
LEE 88 75 91 76 / 90 40 70 20
SFB 90 75 92 76 / 80 30 70 20
ORL 89 75 93 76 / 80 30 70 20
FPR 89 74 91 75 / 60 30 60 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...WEITLICH
AVIATION...KELLY
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