616
FXUS62 KMLB 081456
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
956 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
- HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM.
- NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR MOST OF THIS COMING
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 956 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH TODAY, WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERING
IN BEHIND. HOWEVER, WILL STILL SEE SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH THIS ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES A TAD ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE, WITH POPS AROUND 30%
ACROSS BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES NORTHWARD, WITH 40-50% CONTINUING
ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST. ISOLATED STORMS
MAY ALSO STILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TREASURE
COAST WHERE SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL STILL EXIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S FROM ORLANDO AREA
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S SOUTH (EXCEPT UPPER 70S ACROSS MARTIN
COUNTY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
CURRENT-TODAY... A BAND OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY PERSISTING FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
DESPITE CLEARING SHOWERS, CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO PERSIST. A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS FROM BREVARD AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES
NORTHWARD SHOULD SEE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S, ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTS OF NORTHERN VOLUSIA COULD TOUCH THE UPPER 60S. ACROSS
OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST, HIGHS MORE WIDELY SPREAD THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MOSTLY COOL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 50S WITH AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF I-4 FALLING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE U.S. ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY, STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS LOCALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT THEN DECAYS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AS IT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE EARLY IN
THE PERIOD, KEEPING SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND. OTHERWISE, THE
MOISTURE PROFILE REMAINS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR AND NORTH OF THE ORLANDO METRO
WITH MOSTLY LOW 70S SOUTH. AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM TO RANGE THE LOW
TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BUT REACH THE UPPER 70S NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY. TEMPERATURES THEN COOL A
TOUCH ON THURSDAY BECOMING NEAR NORMAL AREAWIDE. LOW TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY CONTINUE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH LOW TO MID 40S FAR NORTH AND WEST OF I-4. COOLER THURSDAY
MORNING, GENERALLY RANGING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS REINFORCED INTO FRIDAY.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH OR PASS CENTRAL FLORIDA
SATURDAY BEFORE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. LATE THIS WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE MAINTAINED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES HOLD
STEADY NEAR SEASONAL VALUES, MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
HOWEVER, FAR SOUTH NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY,
HIGHS AGAIN TOUCH THE UPPER 70S. LOWS ON FRIDAY SPREAD THE UPPER
40S AND LOW 50S, GRADUALLY WARMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CLEAR FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, FURTHER
INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS ACROSS NEARSHORE VOLUSIA AND PORTIONS OF THE
GULF STREAM WATERS. IN RESPONSE, SEAS BUILD TO 6-8 FT IN THE GULF
STREAM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GO
INTO EFFECT AT 4 PM TODAY FOR NEARSHORE VOLUSIA AND ALL LEGS OF THE
LOCAL OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS, AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-6 FT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING WIDELY 4-5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS SETTLE INTO
MID TO LATE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
GREATER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY THIS TAF CYCLE, AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE CIGS NEAR AND BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT
SAGGING THROUGH THE AREA. IFR CIGS ONGOING ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH 16Z, WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS REMAINING
POSSIBLE FOR MORE NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z.
CLEARING IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
LEE/DAB ARE FORECAST TO BE THE FIRST TO CLEAR TO VFR. HOWEVER,
REDUCTIONS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY.
VCSH IS ALSO ONGOING PRIOR TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING. CAMS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A QUICKER EXIT FOR PRECIPITATION, SO HAVE DIMINISHING
SH THIS MORNING, EXCEPT FOR THE TREASURE COAST AND MLB, WHICH
COULD SEE CHANCES LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT SOUTH OF MLB, BUT SH APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN
TS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL TODAY AROUND 8-10 KTS AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 69 51 66 51 / 30 0 0 0
MCO 70 53 68 53 / 30 0 0 0
MLB 73 57 71 57 / 30 0 0 0
VRB 75 58 72 56 / 40 0 0 10
LEE 69 48 66 48 / 30 0 0 0
SFB 70 50 67 51 / 30 0 0 0
ORL 70 51 67 52 / 30 0 0 0
FPR 76 58 72 57 / 40 0 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ570-572-575.
UPDATE...WEITLICH
AVIATION...LEAHY
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