486  
FXUS62 KMLB 141736  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
1236 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 424 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2025  
 
- WEAK COOL FRONT STALLS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY WITH A  
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM.  
 
- WINDY AND VERY WARM SUNDAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. A  
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC  
WATERS DEVELOPING TODAY AND CONTINUING THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 920 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2025  
 
WE ARE OFF TO A SLIGHTLY COOLER START THIS MORNING (COMPARED TO  
YESTERDAY) WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING THROUGH THE MID 60S TO LOW  
70S AREAWIDE. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS NOW DRAPED ACROSS LAKE  
OKEECHOBEE, IN THE VICINITY OF STUART TO WEST PALM BEACH. TO THE  
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, A LITTLE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN  
PLACE, MAKING NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS A LITTLE GUSTY (20-25 MPH).  
SOME LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS LINGERING NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF  
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, MAINLY FROM PALM BAY/LAKE MARIAN  
SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION, A FEW SHOWERS ARE ONGOING NEAR THE FRONT,  
STAYING OFFSHORE FOR NOW.  
 
IT WILL BE BREEZY TO GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE  
IMMEDIATE COAST. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME SHOWER  
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,  
GENERALLY SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN/VERO BEACH (INCLUDING OKEECHOBEE  
COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST). WHILE POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD  
LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTIVE INITIATION, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH  
SUPPORT ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TO GENERATE A STORM OR TWO. THUS,  
THIS UPDATE INTRODUCES A VERY LOW (15-20%) CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED  
LIGHTNING STORM THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON THE TREASURE  
COAST REGION. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET AS  
IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD AS A RETREATING WARM FRONT.  
OVERALL, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.  
 

 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 424 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2025  
 
TODAY...WEAK COOL FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FL  
CURRENTLY IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF LAKE  
OKEECHOBEE THIS AFTN. LOW CLOUDS AND A NE WIND FLOW BEHIND THE  
FRONT WILL PRODUCE COOLER TEMPS THAN YESTERDAY, HOLDING IN THE  
LOWER 70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST BUT REACHING THE LOWER 80S  
AROUND LAKE O AND THE TREASURE COAST WHERE THE FRONT IS FORECAST  
TO STALL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PUSH ONSHORE FROM THE  
ATLC ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE  
BREEZY NE WINDS COMBINE WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. THE FRONT WILL  
START TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WITH WINDS  
VEERING SE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.  
 
SAT-SUN...THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY SAT PLACING  
EC FL SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN AN  
INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS. MID 80S SURGE BACK ACROSS THE INTERIOR,  
HOLDING NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT.  
BREEZY S-SE WINDS SAT WILL BECOME WINDY ON SUN OUT OF THE SW. THIS  
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S EVEN AT  
THE COAST RESULTING IN NEAR RECORD HIGHS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT  
WILL BE APPROACHING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE CONVECTION ALONG  
THE FRONT MAY LOOK IMPRESSIVE EARLY SUNDAY IN THE PANHANDLE,  
VEERING FLOW SHOULD REDUCE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS  
CENTRAL FL AND INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. WHILE RAIN CHANCES LOOK  
DECENT (40-50 PERCENT) ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA SUN AFTN, THEY ARE  
MUCH LOWER (20 PERCENT OR LESS) SOUTH OF ORLANDO. NONETHELESS,  
STRONG WIND FIELDS (30-35 KNOTS AT 925 MB) WILL SUPPORT WINDY  
CONDITIONS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ESP ORLANDO SOUTHWARD  
WHERE BETTER HEATING/MIXING CAN OCCUR. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND  
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY.  
 
MON-THU...A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT  
BEHIND THE FRONT. COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE MON NIGHT/TUE AM IN THE  
MID TO UPPER 40S LAKE/VOLUSIA AND 50S MOST ELSEWHERE SO VERY LOW  
THREAT FOR FROST OR FREEZE. MAX TEMPS MON WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER  
60S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST RISING TO THE MID 70S AROUND LAKE O.  
WINDS VEER QUICKLY ONSHORE (EAST) TUE AND SOUTH ON WED SO TEMPS  
WILL REBOUND TO THE MID 70S TUE AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WED. MODELS  
CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT IN THE  
NORTHERN GULF WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WED  
NIGHT/THU. RAIN CHANCES ARE 40-60 PERCENT AREAWIDE WITH THIS NEXT  
FRONT BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS TOO UNCERTAIN.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 424 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2025  
 
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL FL EARLY  
THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
(TREASURE COAST) WATERS TODAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD  
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT  
IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT.  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THE  
CAROLINA COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
NORTH TO NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE  
VOLUSIA AND BREVARD WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY, WITH WIND  
SPEEDS INCREASING 15-25 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION  
TO START THEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT FIRST  
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATER THIS MORNING, EXPANDING TO INCLUDE  
THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING AS 7 FT SEAS BUILD TOWARD THE  
COAST. WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS RESULTING IN  
A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT, NO HEADLINES APPEAR NECESSARY TODAY  
AS WINDS WILL START VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, BECOMING NE-E  
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 FT IN THE GULF  
STREAM OFFSHORE TREASURE COAST TONIGHT.  
 
WINDS VEER SE SAT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING AROUND 15  
KNOTS THEN INCREASE SUN OUT OF THE S/SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT  
STRONGER COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE 15-20 KNOTS NEARSHORE  
AND UP TO 25 KNOTS OFFSHORE. SO THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED  
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THRU SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE  
SAT BUT ON SUN SEAS NEARSHORE WILL SUBSIDE 3-4 FT DUE TO THE  
OFFSHORE FLOW. WINDS TURN NW TO N BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON  
WITH SEAS REBUILDING 7-8 FT IN THE GULF STREAM. WINDS VEER NE TUE  
AND SPEEDS DECREASE AROUND 10 KNOTS ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE 3-4  
FT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2025  
 
AFTER DISSIPATING FOR ALL BUT THE TREASURE COAST THIS MORNING,  
MVFR CIGS (BKN015-025) HAVE RETURNED ACROSS THE AREA. REDUCTIONS  
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, BEFORE LIFTING FROM  
SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT, AS THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.  
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE TREASURE COAST BY  
AROUND 6-7Z, MLB BY AROUND 12Z, AND MCO NORTHWARD BY 15Z. ONGOING  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST (VCSH  
INCLUDED) ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING AND SPREAD  
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. DAB IS FORECAST TO SEE VCSH LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AS SHOWERS DRIFT ONSHORE.  
BREEZY NE WINDS TODAY WILL VEER SE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS  
10-12KTS TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-22KTS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTIER  
WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 65 81 65 84 / 20 20 0 40  
MCO 67 84 66 86 / 10 10 0 30  
MLB 67 80 67 87 / 20 10 0 10  
VRB 67 81 66 88 / 20 10 0 0  
LEE 66 84 66 84 / 10 10 0 50  
SFB 66 84 66 86 / 10 10 0 40  
ORL 67 84 66 86 / 10 10 0 30  
FPR 65 81 65 87 / 10 0 0 0  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY  
FOR AMZ550-552.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ570-572.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY  
FOR AMZ575.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...SCHAPER  
AVIATION...LEAHY  
 
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