831
FXUS62 KMLB 131127
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
627 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
- A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS, MAINLY
CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD
- STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
BRINGING A BRIEF INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ONWARD; SUB-FREEZING MORNING
LOWS AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S TO 30S, ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY MORNING AND NEXT MONDAY MORNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING WHILE A LOW CLOUD DECK PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH ECFL
HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS A STATIONARY FRONT. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES RANGE WIDELY FROM THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH OF ORLANDO
TO THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT TODAY, MAINLY OVER THE TREASURE COAST AND
GULF STREAM, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THAT SAID, A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW
DEGREES MORE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY (HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S).
MOISTURE RETURN AND THE SOUTH FLORIDA FRONT MOVING NORTH HELPS TO
EXPAND 20-30% RAIN CHANCES NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT, BUT THE MAJORITY
OF ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. IN OTHER
WORDS, A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL SIMPLY EXPAND NORTH
TOWARD CAPE CANAVERAL AND EVEN THE VOLUSIA COAST THROUGH DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE MID 50S
NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S FROM THE ORLANDO METRO TO THE TREASURE
COAST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY MORNING, A WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS TO
BE DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST AND GULF STREAM
WATERS, BEFORE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. OUR FOCUS IS ON
THE NEXT SERIES OF COLD FRONTS, APPROACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN IN
EARNEST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED WEDNESDAY, WITH ONE BATCH
OF QPF SHIFTING WELL OFFSHORE AND MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT ON VERY
LIGHT QPF NORTH OF ORLANDO IN THE AFTERNOON.
WE WILL BE WAITING ON THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT EARLY
THURSDAY, BRINGING WITH IT SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES (30-55%).
MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS TO A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN IS TYPICAL
AT THIS TIME RANGE. GFS+AI ENSEMBLES POINT TO GENERALLY 0.2" OR
LESS OF MEASURABLE RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND THE FROPA THURSDAY
MORNING, WHEREAS THE ECMWF+AI ENSEMBLES ARE MORE CENTERED AROUND
0.3"-0.4" OF RAIN. GRANTED, A COUPLE TENTHS OF RAIN IS NOT A HUGE
DIFFERENCE WITH MOST OF THE AREA UNDER D0-D1 (ABNORMALLY DRY TO
MODERATE DROUGHT) CONDITIONS. AS QUICKLY AS RAIN MOVES IN, IT WILL
MOVE OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A WESTERLY BREEZE WEDNESDAY UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS LIKELY TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-4. BEHIND
THURSDAY'S FRONT, NOTICEABLY COLDER AND DRIER WILL RUSH SOUTHWARD
SUPPORTED BY A 10-15+ MPH WIND (GUSTING 20-25 MPH AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WEDNESDAY TREND DOWN ON THURSDAY, STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
60-DEGREE MARK ORLANDO NORTHWARD. SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR THURSDAY
NIGHT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AND BRISK WIND CHILL
VALUES.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...BEFORE STEPPING OUTSIDE FOR WORK OR SCHOOL FRIDAY
MORNING, BE SURE TO DRESS WARMLY! FORECAST MORNING LOWS HAVE NOT
CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE, MAINTAINING THE IDEA OF
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4, IN
ADDITION TO SUB-FREEZING LOWS ACROSS INTERIOR ECFL AS FAR SOUTH
AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE. MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER WILL BE A NORTHWEST
BREEZE, SENDING WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF ECFL FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PENINSULA. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S
FROM OSCEOLA/NORTHERN BREVARD AND POINTS NORTH (LOW 60S SOUTH).
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
COLD NIGHT (30S-MID 40S). WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT, THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY OF FROST DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAKE A COMEBACK, CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S TO LOW 70S. BUT THEN...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LACK OF MOISTURE ALONG THIS
FRONT IS KEEPING RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
SWING COLDER AGAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. SUB-FREEZING
TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
FRONT, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN ADD A WIND CHILL FACTOR WITH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT AS N-E WINDS DECREASE TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND OVER THE GULF STREAM, EXPANDING NORTH
AND EASTWARD IN TIME, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS FALL TO 3-4
FT TODAY AND 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, QUICKLY
PUSHING SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASE TO 40-60%, FOLLOWED BY FRESHENING NW WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS GRADUALLY EXPAND FROM
THE OFFSHORE WATERS THURSDAY MORNING TO THE REMAINING MARINE LEGS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT
(ESP. OFFSHORE) BUILD SEAS TO 4-7 FT NEARSHORE AND 6-9 FT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY UNWINDS FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD, ALLOWING SEAS TO FALL TO 3-6 FT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY (SEAS 2-3 FT).
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
LINGERING MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH, MAINLY AT SUA.
HAVE INCLUDED PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z AT THAT TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE, VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME N/NE THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AROUND 10 KT BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 23/00Z. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME
LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AROUND 08/09Z. SO HAVE INCLUDED
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS STARTING THEN FOR MLB NORTHWARD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 70 55 67 50 / 10 30 30 40
MCO 73 60 68 54 / 10 30 20 50
MLB 74 58 72 52 / 10 30 30 40
VRB 75 59 74 51 / 20 40 30 30
LEE 70 55 67 51 / 10 20 20 50
SFB 72 56 68 52 / 10 30 20 40
ORL 72 59 67 53 / 10 30 20 50
FPR 75 59 75 51 / 20 40 30 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...WATSON
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