461  
FXUS62 KMLB 202003  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
302 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
   
..COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN TONIGHT, BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY
 
 
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS  
TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL BECOMING NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LATE NIGHT TEMPS TO DROP TO  
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR/NRN CSTL SECTIONS TO THE  
LOWER 40S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THAT  
REACHED 35-40 MPH WILL DROP AFTER SUNSET TO 10-15 MPH AND THEN  
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR  
OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM. LATE NIGHT  
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW THE AIR TEMPERATURE  
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S FROM AROUND 4 TO 8 AM, BUT SUSTAINED WINDS  
SHOULD BE BELOW 10 MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE COLDER  
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS IN THE GRIDS/ZFP/HWO FOR THE OVERNIGHT.  
EROSION OF THE STRATOCU DECK IS FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING WITH  
MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATER THIS EVENING.  
 
MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE  
SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE MORNING VEERING  
TO THE NNE/NE INTO THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A COLD START MOSTLY SUNNY  
SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME MARINE STRATOCU APPROACHING THE SRN  
TREASURE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TEMPS WILL BE COOL RANGING  
FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTRY TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S  
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS.  
 
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SLIDES EASTWARD CAUSING WINDS  
TO VEER ESE ON TUESDAY. WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE  
ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MARINE STRATOCU OVER  
LAND, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MENTIONABLE  
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM  
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOW 70S FOR AREAS SOUTH. BREEZY  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT  
TIGHTENS AND AS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN.  
 
BY WEDNESDAY, AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD  
FRONT OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL NUDGE THE HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER  
EAST CAUSING OUR WINDS TO VEER TO SE/SSE. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO  
GRADUALLY INCREASE, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF  
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD GENERATE SOME  
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT OVERALL CHANCES LOOK  
LOW. 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER (CLOSER TO THE ECMWF) AND  
POPS HAVE BEEN TAPERED DOWN TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE BOARD.  
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND AS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN.  
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S.  
 
OVERNIGHT LOWS MON. NIGHT/TUES. MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S  
OVER THE INTERIOR, AND UPPER 40S-LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST (EXCEPT MID  
50S TREASURE COAST). QUITE A BIT WARMER TUES. NIGHT/WEDS. MORNING  
WITH MID-UPPER 50S INTERIOR AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST.  
 
WED NIGHT-SUN (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)... PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP ON WED  
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BCMG LIKELY  
WED NIGHT THRU THU AS THE FRONT PUSHES RAPIDLY THRU THE STATE. WILL  
INCLUDE A SLGT CHC OF TSRAS WED NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AS MODELS ARE  
SUGGESTING SOME RATHER VIGOROUS DYNAMIC LIFT IN BOTH THE MID LVL  
OMEGA/UPR LVL DIVERGENCE FIELDS. SOME ARGUMENT FOR HIGHER TSRA  
CHANCES, BUT GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP STARTING WED NIGHT,  
DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH THE FROPA, AND THE LOW SUN ANGLE OF LATE JAN,  
THU MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS.  
 
PRECIP ENDING RAPIDLY LATE THU AFTN/THU EVNG AS THE FRONT RACES THRU  
THE STATE. BRISK NW FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF  
COLD AIR INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE  
U50S/M60S...MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE U30S/M40S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
GUSTY WINDS TO 30-35 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR ECFL TERMINALS INTO  
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET. AN AWW IS IN EFFECT  
UNTIL 415PM FOR KMCO/KORL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.  
 
A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW BKN STRATOCU MAINLY NW OF A  
KISM-KDAB LINE TO BECOME SCATTERED INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY  
EVENING. CLEARING SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT  
WITH VFR CONDS. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEFORE SUNSET WILL VEER TO THE  
NW INTO LATE EVENING AND DROP TO 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLR  
SKIES MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING NE INTO THE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
TONIGHT...NW WINDS TO 20 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 25 KNOTS OFFSHORE INTO  
EARLY EVENING WILL VEER TO THE N AND DROP TO 15 KNOTS NEAR SHORE 15-  
20 KNOTS OFFSHORE INTO LATE TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE GALE OFFSHORE  
INTO THIS EVENING AND SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS INTO THIS EVENING AND  
THEN TRANSITION THE GULF STREAM AREAS TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY  
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS OFFSHORE UP TO 7-9 FT AND 4-6  
FT DECREASING TO 3-5 FT NEARSHORE.  
 
MONDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS WILL BECOME NNE INTO THE  
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED ACROSS THE GULF STREAM AND  
OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MONDAY  
NIGHT BECOMING HAZARDOUS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A TIGHT  
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL VEER FROM EASTERLY  
TUESDAY TO SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY BY  
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGED EASTWARD BY APPROACHING LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20  
KT NEARSHORE AND AROUND 20-25 (POSSIBLY 25-30 WEDNESDAY NIGHT) KT IN  
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-7 FT NEARSHORE AND 6-9 FT  
OFFSHORE. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  
 
FRIDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AS WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER BEHIND  
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KT WITH  
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SEAS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 35 58 47 68 / 0 0 0 10  
MCO 39 62 47 71 / 0 0 0 10  
MLB 40 63 54 70 / 0 0 10 10  
VRB 42 64 54 71 / 0 0 10 10  
LEE 36 60 44 70 / 0 0 0 0  
SFB 38 59 45 69 / 0 0 0 10  
ORL 39 61 48 70 / 0 0 0 10  
FPR 42 66 54 71 / 0 0 10 10  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL  
VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-  
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-  
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN  
LAKE COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.  
 
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR FLAGLER  
BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-  
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY  
FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN  
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE  
TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.  
 
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO  
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO  
JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO  
SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR  
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY  
FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
VOLKMER/COMBS/ULRICH  
 
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