596
FXUS62 KMLB 221906
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
206 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
- PATCHY, LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
- ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH, BUT MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES THANKSGIVING DAY, BRINGING COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
NOW-TONIGHT...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON HAS HELPED BUMP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S AREAWIDE. A FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS FIELD CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE
TREASURE COAST. THERE, A DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE HAS FORMED AND IS
ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INLAND. A WEAK AND SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TREK IN OUR DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, LIGHT WINDS
AND INCREASED NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE BRING THE RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR
FOG AGAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO PUSH ACROSS
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-4 BEFORE SUNRISE, WHICH COULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON
FOG FORMATION. IF PLANNING TO TRAVEL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, USE
CAUTION WHEN ENCOUNTERING FOG ON AREA ROADWAYS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY WHILE A
WEAKENED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
BECOME LESS AND LESS DEFINED AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DO LOOK TO VEER NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FORECAST MAINTAINS THE CHANCE
FOR SPRINKLES ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND NOW INCLUDES A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AS INDICATED BY SHORT-RANGE MODELS.
LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, AS
ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED IN A RELATIVELY DRY
ENVIRONMENT (PW 1.1-1.2" AND DECREASING). DESPITE A FEW MORE CLOUDS
ON SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 80S,
SETTLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY BRINGS DAYTIME
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, JUST A TOUCH COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT AS ONSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY RESUMES. IT WOULD ALSO NOT BE
SURPRISING TO BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOG POTENTIAL WILL ALSO LINGER AROUND THE
FRONT MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...THE H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE
ALREADY PUSHED OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THEN, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SLOWS DOWN A BIT AS MULTIPLE LOBES OF
ENERGY CONSOLIDATE INTO A BROAD, DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. MID TO LATE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EXISTS THANKSGIVING DAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL, THOUGH SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. BETTER AGREEMENT EXISTS ON TEMPERATURES, WITH WARM
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FROM THANKSGIVING DAY INTO LATE WEEK. NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP A BIT MORE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
TOO, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
MOSTLY FAVORABLE BOATING WEATHER IS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LIGHT WINDS AND 1-3 FT (4 FT WELL OFFSHORE)
SEAS LINGER. A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY, STALLING, THEN LIFTING NORTH OF THE WATERS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS VEER NORTH-NORTHEAST SUN.-MON. (10-12 KT OR LESS),
THEN TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY TUE.-WED. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE OR
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LESS
MODEL AGREEMENT ON ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BY MIDWEEK. A STRONGER FRONT
ARRIVES THANKSGIVING DAY, BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON, AS EARLIER FG HAS
CLEARED. ADDITIONAL PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO.
HOWEVER, MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH WHERE AND EXACTLY WHEN
FG WILL BE DENSEST. THUS, HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPOS FOR 3SM AT ALL
TERMINALS FROM 9-12/13Z. ALTHOUGH, IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOULD GAIN CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY FOR FUTURE UPDATES. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY, WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE
ALONG THE COAST FROM TIX SOUTHWARD. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST SUNDAY, THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE MORNING HOURS. WIND SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 10
KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 63 80 63 79 / 0 10 10 10
MCO 63 83 64 82 / 0 10 10 10
MLB 62 80 66 80 / 0 20 20 10
VRB 59 82 66 81 / 0 20 20 10
LEE 64 82 62 82 / 0 10 0 0
SFB 63 82 63 81 / 0 20 10 10
ORL 63 82 63 81 / 0 20 10 10
FPR 59 82 64 81 / 0 20 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...LEAHY
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