880
FXUS62 KMLB 231126
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
726 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
- SENSITIVE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITY AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS AT AREA BEACHES TO START
THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING RISK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
- RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY; A STRONG STORM AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH SUNRISE THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF I-4, BUT DRY AIR WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE TO START OFF THE
WEEK, ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WESTERLY BREEZE, GUSTY
AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WILL COMBINE WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES TO PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO FORM, MAINLY FROM TITUSVILLE/CAPE
CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD TO THE TREASURE COAST, PUSHING INLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
LOWS INTO TUESDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S AREAWIDE.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...A WEAKENING FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH ON
TUESDAY, APPROACHING DAYTONA BEACH AND THE NORTHERN VOLUSIA COAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS RESPOND, TURNING
NORTH AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY AS SPEEDS INCREASE DOWN THE COAST
THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS COULD REACH 20 MPH OR SO FROM SANFORD
NORTHWARD. EXPECT THE EAST COAST BREEZE TO BE MORE ORGANIZED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS FEATURE, COMBINED WITH INCREASED
PW AND THE ARRIVING FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS. THE
POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BUT NON-ZERO FOR A COUPLE OF STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DUE IN PART TO MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE LAPSE RATES, INSTABILITY, AND COOL 500MB TEMPS AROUND
-13C TO -14C.
AS THE FRONT STALLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CLOSER
TO THE COAST. OPPOSING LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND DIRECTIONS, THOUGH NOT
OVERLY STRONG, WILL COINCIDE WITH GREATER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COASTS. THIS SETUP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE REPEATED RAINFALL OVER SOME OF THE SAME LOCATIONS.
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH QPF (THERE ARE
A FEW HIGHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AT TIX/XMR), BUT IT'S SOMETHING
THAT BEARS WATCHING AS CAM GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE LATER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY WITH PW NEARING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH
PERCENTILE.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST, BEFORE RAIN CHANCES DRIFT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
A COUPLE OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON, AND ONE OR
TWO COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT
ACROSS NORTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT, RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S TO THE LOW/MID 80S INLAND. OVERALL THOUGH, THERE WILL NOT BE
A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT.
AT THE BEACHES, THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEACHGOERS SHOULD KEEP THIS IN
MIND, RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ALIKE, HEEDING THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS
AND POSTED CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND
STICK AROUND FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. AS THE MID
WEEK FRONT DISSIPATES NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY EXPANDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK.
500MB RIDGING IS PROGGED TO EXPAND FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE EAST COAST BREEZE FORMING/PUSHING INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN,
PARTICULARLY BY FRIDAY, REACHING THE 80S AREAWIDE (LOW 80S AT THE
COAST). ANOTHER COLD FRONT, PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER THIS TIME AROUND,
ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST). DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
LOOK TO RETREAT CLOSER TO NORMAL, ONLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
70S. IN ADDITION, BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
EVOLVE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WILL TURN ONSHORE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, THE LAND
BREEZE MOVES OFFSHORE WITH WINDS TURNING WESTERLY AGAIN,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS. OVERALL, GENERALLY GOOD BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT TODAY WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FEET.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY, SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
BEGINNING MIDDAY TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE BETTER PORTION OF
WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS QUICKLY VEER EAST-NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY, FRESHENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. POOR TO HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP, BEGINNING IN THE VOLUSIA AND OFFSHORE
BREVARD WATERS, BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 8-11 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER, MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS LOOK TO
ROUND OUT THE WEEK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
GENERALLY VFR AND DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION REMAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4
THIS MORNING WITH LEE AND DAB HAVING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR VIS. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED IN LAKE AND WESTERN ORANGE
COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND IS EXPANDING INTO VOLUSIA AND SEMINOLE.
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO WITH 2SM SCT008 AT LEE AND 4SM AT DAB FOR
THIS PATCHY FOG. LIGHT W/SW WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
INCREASING TO 8-12KT BY MID MORNING. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON, BACKING THE WINDS ONSHORE,
MAINLY FROM MLB-SUA. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT, WITH
WINDS PREDOMINATELY W/SW BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY AND INCREASING
TO 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM MCO NORTHWARD. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE VC WORDING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
DRY AIR AND THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 10-15 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH, PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO SENSITIVE OR CRITICAL
VALUES IN MANY LOCATIONS AS WELL. THUS, FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED
WHERE HUMIDITY REMAINS CRITICALLY LOW AND LATER DAY WIND GUSTS
BRIEFLY INCREASE.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RECOVER ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT
EVENTUALLY STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS VEER
INCREASINGLY ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN EAST-NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 85 60 77 63 / 0 0 60 50
MCO 85 60 85 65 / 0 0 50 30
MLB 84 59 78 64 / 0 0 30 50
VRB 84 56 81 63 / 0 0 20 30
LEE 83 61 80 63 / 0 0 50 30
SFB 86 60 83 63 / 0 0 50 40
ORL 85 60 83 64 / 0 0 50 40
FPR 84 55 82 61 / 0 0 10 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ575.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...WATSON
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