580  
FXUS62 KMLB 080235  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
1035 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025  
   
..NEW UPDATE  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025  
 
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME RELIEF TO ONGOING  
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.  
 
- THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXISTS EACH  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK, WITH A  
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
- WHILE RAINFALL WILL INITIALLY BE BENEFICIAL, THE THREAT FOR  
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL INCREASE THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS ANY  
AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND  
INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 1 AM OR SO AS  
THEY MOVE EASTWARD. THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS LOWERED SO  
THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY  
RAIN. EARLIER BOUNDARY COLLISION STRETCHED FROM INTERIOR VOLUSIA  
S/SW ACROSS SEMINOLE, CENTRAL ORANGE AND NW OSCEOLA COUNTIES. SLOW  
MOVING STORMS PRODUCED LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RADAR  
ESTIMATING NEAR 3 INCHES NEAR OVIEDO AND ALSO NEAR MEADOW WOODS  
NEAR OIA.  
 
 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025  
 
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ARE  
MOVING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON, AND A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES.  
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GREATEST COVERAGE OF  
SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURRING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD  
SUNSET INLAND TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SEA BREEZE  
COLLISION IS FAVORED (POPS UP TO 50-60 PERCENT). A WEAK WESTERLY  
STEERING FLOW MAY SHIFT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION BACK TOWARD THE  
COAST OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE  
TEMPS ALOFT ARE A LITTLE WARMER TODAY (-8 TO -10C AT 500MB) AND  
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR, THERE IS STILL SUFFICIENT  
INSTABILITY AND LINGERING DRY MID LEVEL AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A  
FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO  
THIS EVENING, BETWEEN 4-9 PM. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR  
SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN ADDED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST  
CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM AROUND NORTHERN OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTIES  
NORTHWARD THROUGH LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES. MAIN THREATS WILL BE  
STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-60 MPH, HAIL UP TO  
AN INCH IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL  
OF 1-3 INCHES.  
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING, WITH RAIN  
CHANCES ENDING OVERNIGHT OVER LAND. HOWEVER, COULD STILL SEE SOME  
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE OFFSHORE  
WATERS.  
 
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST  
U.S. WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH LATE WEEK, BEFORE SHIFTING BACK  
SOUTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL FL. A  
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH GREATEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST  
RAIN CHANCES (UP TO 60-70%) FOCUSED NORTH OF OKEECHOBEE AND THE  
TREASURE COAST. A RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW THE  
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND EACH AFTERNOON,  
WITH SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING  
AND PUSHING BACK TOWARD AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING AS OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW INCREASES. THE POTENTIAL FOR  
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST, AND THERE IS A  
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER NOW ACROSS MUCH OF  
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON THURSDAY, AND ACROSS AREAS FROM BREVARD  
AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. MAIN THREATS WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-60  
MPH, HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-3 INCHES.  
 
IN TERMS OF OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THE FORECAST CURRENTLY CALLS  
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF UP TO 1-3 INCHES FROM BREVARD/OSCEOLA  
COUNTIES NORTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH  
TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF STORMS THESE  
TOTALS WILL CERTAINLY VARY. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A  
CONCERN WITH STORMS, RAINFALL SHOULD INITIALLY BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO  
ONGOING MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL  
BE AN INCREASED CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE  
FLOODING INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS ANY AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS  
OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS  
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID  
60S TO LOW 70S.  
 
SUNDAY-TUESDAY...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SOUTHERN  
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND SOUTHEASTERN  
US SHIFTING OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN  
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE DEEP  
SOUTH AND MIDSOUTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO  
DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE  
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US SUNDAY TO  
TUESDAY. HIGH RAIN CHANCES, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, IN  
ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST STRONG STORMS ARE FORECAST  
EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO  
KNOW FOR SURE, BUT THE SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY,  
MONDAY, AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH AN  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA BY MONDAY.  
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW  
70S ARE FORECAST.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025  
 
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE THROUGH LATE WEEK  
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, SCATTERED TO AT TIME NUMEROUS  
OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY  
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE, PRODUCING WIND GUSTS  
UP TO 30-50 KNOTS, HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING STRIKES. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE  
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 15  
KNOTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, BEFORE THEY INCREASE TO AROUND 15  
KNOTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN INTO MONDAY. SEAS WILL  
RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY, BUILDING TO 3-4 FEET LATE  
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY UP TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025  
 
TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS FROM SFB-  
ISM THROUGH 01Z CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY  
WINDS. SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT DAB-TIX THRU 02Z OR SO THEN VFR WITH  
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. ON THU, S/SW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL TURN  
ONSHORE AT COASTAL TERMINALS BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BTWN 16Z-18Z.  
HAVE INSERTED VCTS AFT 20Z FOR MOST TERMINALS (EXCEPT LEE).  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DAB 69 88 68 87 / 50 70 40 70  
MCO 71 91 70 89 / 50 70 40 70  
MLB 70 87 69 87 / 30 50 30 60  
VRB 69 88 69 88 / 20 30 20 50  
LEE 71 90 70 88 / 30 60 30 60  
SFB 69 92 69 90 / 50 70 40 70  
ORL 71 91 70 90 / 50 70 40 70  
FPR 69 88 69 88 / 10 30 20 50  
 
 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...KELLY  
AVIATION...KELLY  
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