396  
FXUS62 KTAE 231045  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
645 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY]  
 
PATCHY FOG IS BEING OBSERVED MAINLY FROM VALDOSTA DOWN TO THE BIG  
BEND REGION THIS MORNING, WITH VISIBILITY READINGS IN THE MVFR TO  
IFR CATEGORIES. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING, WITH  
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [613 AM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA AND A SHALLOW FOG  
BANK OVER THE BIG BEND AREA THIS MORNING. FOG IN THIS AREA IS  
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER  
SUNRISE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN LEAD TO A SUNNY AND DRY  
DAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR  
SE AL AND SW GA, WHILE THE PANHANDLE TOPS OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.  
TONIGHT, ANOTHER COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE, WITH LOW  
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S FOR OUR FL  
COUNTIES AND THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR OUR GA AND AL COUNTIES.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY]
 
 
A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW  
REESTABLISHING ITSELF THROUGHOUT SUNDAY, BRINGING DEWPOINTS BACK  
INTO THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT  
MAKES ITS APPROACH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY, AND  
WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINING TO THE NORTH. THIS RESULTS IN THE  
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS  
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN  
THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]
 
 
POST-FRONTAL, WE CAN EXPECT DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS ON  
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER,  
THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS A POTENTIALLY POTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH  
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST CAUSING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO  
REESTABLISH ITSELF ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE  
UPPER 60S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY OUR BEST CHANCES FOR  
PRECIP ARE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH POPS >75% THURSDAY  
MORNING. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS CURRENTLY DISAGREE ON THE MAGNITUDE  
AND TIMING, WHICH COULD IMPACT WHETHER OR NOT ROBUST CONVECTION  
AND/OR SEVERE IS POSSIBLE. THE SPC CURRENTLY HAS OUR REGION WITHIN A  
15% SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR DAY 5 FOR AREAS ALONG THE FLORIDA  
PANHANDLE AND SE ALABAMA. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS GUIDANCE  
PRESENTS A CLEARER PICTURE IN THE COMING DAYS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT  
COOL DRY AIR TO FILTER IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH, LEADING TO A COOL AND  
PLEASANT FALL WEEKEND. THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS  
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S INITIALLY, COOLING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S  
AND LOW 70S BY SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW  
TO MID 60S INITIALLY, COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY  
SATURDAY.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET  
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME  
SOUTHEASTERLY BY TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM,  
THEN BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY  
NIGHT.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL FILTER IN THE AREA TODAY IN THE WAKE  
OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWEST  
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 30 TO 35 PERCENT IN SPOTS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS  
ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE ONLY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR  
LOW DISPERSIONS TODAY DUE TO WEAKER NORTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND TWO AND A HALF INCHES OR  
LESS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE WITH  
NO FLOODING ISSUES ON THE HORIZON AT THIS TIME.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR (WHILE FOLLOWING ALL LOCAL, STATE, AND CDC GUIDELINES) BY  
CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 83 58 85 65 86 / 0 0 10 10 20  
PANAMA CITY 84 62 84 68 84 / 0 0 10 20 30  
DOTHAN 80 54 84 61 85 / 0 0 0 10 30  
ALBANY 81 54 85 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 20  
VALDOSTA 82 56 85 64 86 / 0 0 0 10 20  
CROSS CITY 86 61 87 68 86 / 0 0 10 10 20  
APALACHICOLA 82 65 81 70 82 / 0 0 10 20 20  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...KR  
SHORT TERM...OLIVER  
LONG TERM...OLIVER  
AVIATION...KR  
MARINE...OLIVER  
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER  
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER  
 
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