569
FXUS62 KTAE 290535
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
135 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN REMAINS RATHER LOW, SO RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP THINGS MILD TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. A BROADER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES ON
SATURDAY, BUT IT'S RATHER WEAK AS WELL. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TICK UP ON SUNDAY AS A DECAYING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. SWINGS TO
OUR NORTH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THIS POINT SEEM TO BE IN OUR
NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES (~60%) WHERE THERE IS THE GREATEST FOCUSING OF
LIFT/CONVERGENCE FROM WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE
ENTIRE CWA SHOULD BE BLANKETED BY A THICK LAYER OF CLOUDS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WHICH MAY LIMIT DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING WARM AND MOIST AIR
(DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-HIGH 60S). FOR NOW, THE SPC HAS
PLACED OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY, WITH THE REST OF THE CWA PLACED
IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
OUR ATTENTION QUICKLY SWITCHES TO MONDAY, WHERE A MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO MANIFEST. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD, DRAPING
A FRONT ACROSS THE SE AS IT MOVES. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL NOT DROP
TEMPERATURES SUBSTANTIALLY, IT WILL BRING WITH IT AN AXIS OF FORCED
ASCENT FOR WHICH STORMS TO FIRE OFF OF. COMBINED WITH THIS WILL BE
MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FROM SOLAR HEATING AND MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, THUS THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES WHERE ASCENT
IS GREATEST. THE SPC HAS PLACED OUR ENTIRE CWA IN A LARGE 15%-29%
SEVERE WEATHER RISK PROBABILITY (EQUIVALENT TO A SLIGHT RISK (OR
LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) IN A TYPICAL DAY 1-3 OUTLOOK) DUE TO GREATER
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME RANGE THAN USUAL. DETAILS
ON THIS FORTHCOMING SYSTEM ARE MURKY AT THIS POINT, ESPECIALLY IN
TERMS OF TIMING AND HAZARD TYPES. CONFIDENCE SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON THESE DETAILS ONCE THE EVENT BEGINS TO ENTER THE RANGE
OF THE CAMS.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SEVERE WEATHER SYSTEM,
A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN OVER THE EASTERN U.S.,
BRINGING WITH IT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR THUS FAR. IN
FACT, DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BOTH SHOW 500MB
HEIGHTS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 580S DAM TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK, WHICH WOULD BE NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR THAT TIME OF THE YEAR
PER SPC'S SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PAGE AT KTLH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S IN RESPONSE TO THIS, WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO DIP BELOW 60. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A
BIT, WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING A MORE PERSISTENT AND STRONGER RIDGE
AXIS, AND THE GFS DEPICTING THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND FAVORING A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS KVLD AND KTLH
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TODAY FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KECP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM EASTERN TEXAS FOSTERS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WEST
OF APALACHICOLA TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. NOCTURNAL
EASTERLY SURGES ARE EXPECTED OFF THE NATURE COAST INTO APALACHEE
BAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY, THE SURFACE LOW'S
ARRIVAL SUPPORTS RETURNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH CAUTIONARY BOATING CONDITIONS. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH GOOD TO HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, SPREADING OVER MORE OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH A LINE OF STRONG STORMS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG,
GUSTY WINDS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, DISPERSIONS WILL BE HIGH.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND, BUT DOES NOT LOOK
IMPACTFUL, ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING OUR RECENT DRY STRETCH OF
WEATHER. MONDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM
ARRIVES AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
OVERALL, SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. MEANWHILE, AUCILLA
RIVER - LAMONT CONTINUES TO FALL, BUT REMAINS IN ACTION STAGE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 82 64 79 66 / 10 30 50 10
PANAMA CITY 77 65 76 66 / 50 40 30 10
DOTHAN 80 62 79 66 / 40 50 60 10
ALBANY 81 62 79 64 / 20 40 60 20
VALDOSTA 83 63 82 66 / 10 20 60 20
CROSS CITY 85 63 82 64 / 0 30 50 20
APALACHICOLA 74 65 73 66 / 30 30 30 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GMZ735.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ730-752-755-765-772-775.
NEAR TERM...YOUNG
SHORT TERM...MUTSCHLER/DOBBS
LONG TERM....MUTSCHLER/DOBBS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MUTSCHLER/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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