203
FXUS62 KTAE 112341
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
641 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 637 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
- A COLD WEEK LIES AHEAD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. INLAND AREAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS WILL START WITH WIND CHILLS AND/OR TEMPERATURES OF 30
OR LESS. FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST THIS WEEK, WITH A
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE (50-80 PERCENT) OF AN INLAND HARD FREEZE.
- TWO ROUNDS OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE FIRST ROUND IS ONGOING AND WILL IMPROVE ON MONDAY
MORNING. THE SECOND ROUND IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY IN THE STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NORTHERLIES BEHIND THE NEXT
COLD FRONT.
- THE NEXT LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-40%) OF SHOWERS WILL COME ON
WEDNESDAY NEAR AND IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT REINFORCING COLD
FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON ARE USHERING IN A
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS, WHICH IS QUITE AN ABRUPT TURN FROM
RECENT WARM WEATHER. IN TYPICAL FASHION BEHIND A COLD FRONT, THE
FIRST NIGHT (TONIGHT) WILL HAVE THE LOWEST WIND CHILL, AND THE
SECOND NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT HAS THE LOWEST ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURE. SO MONDAY MORNING WILL START OFF WITH AIR
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, BUT THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A 5-6 MPH WINDS AT SUNRISE WILL HAVE THE NET
EFFECT OF DROPPING WIND CHILLS INTO THE 23-28 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WILL BE COLD WEATHER, WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST EACH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
TWO REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE EXPECTED... THE FIRST
ONE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THE SECOND ONE ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH BOTH FRONTS, SO ANY RAIN WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AT THE HEART OF THE INCOMING ROUND OF
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR IS CURRENTLY OVER THE OZARKS. IT WILL EDGE
CLOSER AND CLOSER, PASSING DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR SERVICE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THE LIGHT/CALM WINDS IN PROXIMITY OF THIS FEATURE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WILL SUPPORT A RADIATIONAL FREEZE AND VARYING
AMOUNTS OF FROST OVER INLAND AREAS AT SUNRISE TUESDAY. UNDER
SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK INTO THE
59F-64F RANGE ON TUE AFTERNOON.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
REALLY AMPLIFY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONG REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY PM. A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD
PRECEDE OR ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, BUT AMOUNTS IF ANY WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY GUSTY WEST WINDS EARLY WED,
THEN FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO STRONG NORTHERLIES ON WED NIGHT AND
THU. IN FACT, SOME OF OUR ENSEMBLE- BASED STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A LOW BUT REASONABLE CHANCE (10-30 PERCENT) OF GETTING
SUSTAINED WINDS OVER LAND NEAR 25 MPH ON THURSDAY, SO WE MAY NEED
TO EVENTUALLY WATCH THIS FOR NEARING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE INCOMING AIR MASS ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE HAD ITS ORIGINS OVER
CENTRAL CANADA. FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST MORNING THIS
WEEK. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CALLING FOR INLAND LOWS IN
THE 23-26 DEGREE RANGE, WHILE THE LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWS A
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF GETTING A HARD FREEZE BELOW 25 DEGREES.
YET ANOTHER STRONG REINFORCING FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION
ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING AIR MASS
THAT WILL HAVE ALSO HAD ITS ORIGINS OVER CENTRAL CANADA.
PRECIPITATION, IF ANY, WITH THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS A CLOSE CHASE OVER AL/GA BETWEEN THE BACK EDGE OF
ANY PRECIP AND THE INCOMING COLD AIR. OF COURSE IN THE VAST
MAJORITY OF CASES LIKE THIS LOCALLY, THE INCOMING DRY AIR WINS
OUT, MEANING PRECIP ENDS BEFORE IT GETS SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR
WINTRY PRECIP. IT WAS AN EASY CHOICE TO MAKE THE FORECAST REFLECT
THIS OUTCOME NEXT WEEKEND.
A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW
INTERMITTENT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS; WILL KEEP GUSTS GOING IN
THE TAFS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN SHOW DECREASING NORTHERLY
WINDS AFTER 03-04Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 146 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OZARKS MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY. ONCE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTH, SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL FRESHEN ON WEDNESDAY, IN ADVANCE OF
A STRONG REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
STRONG AND NEAR-GALE NORTHERLIES WILL FOLLOW THAT FRONT ON
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY, AS A HIGH CENTER PASSES DIRECTLY ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 146 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON MONDAY, THEN GO NEARLY CALM
ON TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. FOR
TUESDAY, WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS AND SEASONABLY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL
SUPPORT ONLY POOR DAYTIME DISPERSION, THOUGH RH VALUES BELOW 25
PERCENT ARE LIKELY AS THE HEART OF THE DRY AIR MASS PASSES BY. A
BRIEF INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY EVENING. STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
FOLLOW THAT FRONT ON THURSDAY.
THE DRY AIR MASS WILL MEAN NO FOG THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. TUESDAY MORNING WILL START WITH AREAS OF FROST OVER
INLAND AREAS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 146 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ANY RAIN, IF
ANY, IN THE NEXT WEEK WILL NOT BY HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT.
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OR WORSEN. FOR MORE LOCAL
DROUGHT INFORMATION, VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 34 54 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 35 55 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 30 51 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 30 52 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 32 54 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 35 60 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 37 54 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EST /1 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR
GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ735.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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