911
FXUS62 KTAE 121923
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
223 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST THIS WEEK WITH A MEDIUM
CHANCE (30-60 PERCENT) OF AN INLAND HARD FREEZE.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP BEHIND THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN
LOUISIANA TO NORTHERN GEORGIA. THIS AXIS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND
PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
SO AS SURFACE WINDS WEAKEN AND DECOUPLE TONIGHT, WE SHOULD HAVE A
DECENT SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, ESPECIALLY LATER AT NIGHT
ONCE WE GET RID OF THE EXISTING CIRRUS DECK. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS
SHOULD GET A LIGHT FREEZE AND SOME FROST. ONE THING THAT COULD
DISRUPT THE FORECAST OF A LIGHT FREEZE IS THE OVC DECK OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SLOW SPREADING INLAND FROM THE JAX METRO
AREA. THE NAM IS QUITE BULLISH AT BRINGING THESE CLOUDS AS FAR
WEST AS VLD AND TLH. IF THAT HAPPENS, IT WOULD CUT OFF THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN ITS TRACKS. THE LATEST RAP IS NOT NEARLY SO
BULLISH.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
TWO REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION IN THE LONG
TERM. THE FIRST WILL PASS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY PM. THE SECOND
FRONT WILL PASS LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. IN BOTH CASES,
MOISTURE IN THE BASE OF THE EASTERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
LIMITED, SO PRECIPITATION, IF ANY, WILL BE LIGHT. ON TO THE
NITTY GRITTY...
THE EXISTING LOW-AMPLITUDE NORTHERN STREAM LONGWAVE WILL AMPLIFY
DRAMATICALLY ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES DIVES SOUTHEAST AND AMPLIFIES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONG REINFORCING COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL ACCELERATE EAST AND
DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL
SUPPORT 20-40 POPS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. WHERE IT RAINS, QPF SHOULD BE UNDER 0.1 INCHES, WHICH WILL
HAVE NO LONG-LASTING BENEFIT.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY SHOULD BRING
GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE. AT THIS POINT, IT AT LEAST LOOKS
LIKE WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING. PROBABILITIES FOR A HARD FREEZE (25 DEGREES OR LESS) HAVE
DECREASED A LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY. THOSE PROBS NOW RANGE FROM
AROUND 30 PERCENT ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO 50-60 PERCENT NORTH
OF DOTHAN-ALBANY-TIFTON.
THE INCOMING SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE ALREADY SCOOCHED EAST OF I-75
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT CLIPPER-STYLE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THERE ARE NOTABLE
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE. ONCE AGAIN, MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING WITH THIS FRONT, AND NBM POPS HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE
SINCE YESTERDAY, MEANING MORE OF THE REGION WITH UNMENTIONABLY
LOW PRECIP CHANCES.
IF THERE IS SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS WEEKEND'S FRONT, THEN IT
COULD BE A THIN MARGIN BETWEEN THE BACK EDGE OF EXITING PRECIP AND
THE ARRIVAL OF SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR FOR WINTRY PRECIP. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY, THE VAST MAJORITY OF SITUATIONS LIKE THIS
RESULT IN THE INCOMING DRIER AIR WINNING OUT. IN OTHER WORDS, THE
PRECIP EXITS BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. MODEL HOUNDS HAVE
SURELY SNIFFED OUT ONE OR TWO MODEL RUNS FROM RECENT DAYS SHOWING
A SMALL OVERLAP BETWEEN THE PRECIP AND COLD AIR NORTH OF THE FL
STATE LINE, MOST NOTABLY WITH LAST EVENING'S DETERMINISTIC ECMWF
RUN. HOWEVER, THIS APPEARED TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION IN ITS
BULLISHNESS. INDEED, THE 12Z ECMWF HAS ARRIVED WITH A DRIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TODAY'S 12Z GEFS PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOW LESS THAN 10
PERCENT OF MEMBERS WITH ANY WINTRY PRECIP AT DHN AND ABY, WITH
EVERY ONE OF THOSE OUTLIERS SHOWING BARELY MORE THAN A TRACE. ALL
IN ALL, WINTRY PRECIP SHOULD NOT BE EXPECTED. IN THE VERY LOW
CHANCE INSTANCE THAT IT OCCURS, IT WOULD BE BRIEF, LIGHT, AND
LOW/NO IMPACT. THIS PARAGRAPH IS INTENDED TO BE "COLD WATER" ON
ANY HYPE ABOUT WINTRY PRECIP.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KT WILL CONTINUE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS EXTENDING THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NORTHERN LOUISIANA TO NORTHERN GEORGIA WILL MOVE SOUTH DIRECTLY
ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUESDAY EVENING, BRINGING A CONTINUED
DECREASE IN WIND. ONCE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY,
WESTERLY BREEZES WILL FRESHEN IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG REINFORCING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS
NEAR GALE FORCE WILL FOLLOW THAT FRONT ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A HIGH CENTER
PASSES DIRECTLY ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY EVENING. YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AT THE HEART OF THE EXISTING DRY AIR MASS
WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS THE DISTRICTS ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL
THEREFORE FEATURE AN INTERESTING COMBINATION OF PLACES WITH CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT, ALONG WITH LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION
DUE TO THE LACK OF WIND AND LOW MIXING HEIGHTS. ON WEDNESDAY,
DISPERSION WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY, WITH HIGH VALUES RESULTING FROM
DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG
REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THAT FRONT ON THURSDAY, SUPPORTING
ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH DISPERSION.
NO FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MORNING
WILL START WITH AREAS OF FROST OVER MANY INLAND DISTRICTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS IN THE NEXT WEEK WILL NOT BE
HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 32 63 40 62 / 0 0 10 40
PANAMA CITY 35 61 45 63 / 0 0 20 30
DOTHAN 31 60 40 59 / 0 0 10 20
ALBANY 28 61 37 60 / 0 0 10 20
VALDOSTA 32 63 38 61 / 0 0 10 40
CROSS CITY 39 65 45 63 / 0 0 10 40
APALACHICOLA 39 60 45 62 / 0 0 20 40
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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