819
FXUS62 KTAE 031134
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
634 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
- THERE IS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR NAVIGATIONAL HAZARDS DUE TO
LOW WATER LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE BAYS, HARBORS, INLETS,
AND TIDAL RIVERS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFFECTING THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
IT'S A CHILLY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S AND UPPER
20S AREA WIDE THIS MORNING. IT'LL BE CLOSER TO 40 DEGREES ALONG
THE EMERALD COAST. WAKING UP THIS MORNING, EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION DUE TO THESE LOW TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DURING THE DAY,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO THE MID 60S WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
COOL DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. THIS WILL BE THE LAST
EVENING OF THE WARMING TREND BEFORE OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING EAST OVER PENINSULA
INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE ALONG
THE EMERALD COAST. POPS FOR WEDNESDAY ARE HIGH RANGING FROM 70-90
PERCENT. THE RAIN AMOUNTS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH TOTALS
RANGING FROM ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO HALF AN INCH.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AT 10-15
MPH, BUT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
TAKE A DROP BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING INTENSE COLD TEMPERATURES.
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOW 50S FOR THURSDAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S, WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOON AFTER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND AS WE WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN BETWEEN
TWO TROUGHS, ONE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE OTHER IN THE WESTERN
U.S..THIS COULD SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE BY NEXT
WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDS WITH LGT/CALM WINDS THIS MORNING UNDER SOME
PASSING UPPER CLOUDS. LINGERING SMOKE FROM A NEARBY WILDFIRE
YESTERDAY IS POSSIBLE INVOF TLH. CLOUD COVER LESSENS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WHILE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SW IN THE 5-10-KT
RANGE. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED LOWER CIGS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ENCROACH ON DHN/ECP/ABY NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. USED THE
6Z HREF TO TIME ONSET OF PRECIP. REMAINING EASTERN TERMINALS HOLD
OFF ON -SHRA ARRIVAL UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 142 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NAVIGATIONAL
HAZARDS DUE TO LOW WATER LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN BAYS,
HARBORS, INLETS, AND TIDAL RIVERS.
ELSEWHERE, FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN OUR MARINE ZONES BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS WINDS PICK UP ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. A LULL COULD BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT,
BUT OUR WESTERN WATERS LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 142 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WILL
LEAD TO HIGH DISPERSIONS FOR THE WIREGRASS REGIONS OF SE AL, SW
GA, AND THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE AREAS EAST OF I-75 AND THE
FL SE BIG BEND WILL HAVE FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
MINRHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 40%, HOWEVER IT COULD FALL
INTO THE 30S IF DEW POINTS DON'T RECOVER AS MUCH AS FORECAST WITH
THE WARMING TEMPERATURES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY WHERE ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, DRIER/COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH
BREEZY TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. MINRHS FOR THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 30S
PERCENT AND DISPERSIONS WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH ACROSS THE
REGION.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 142 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS. IN THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND
BIG BEND, THERE IS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR NAVIGATIONAL HAZARDS
DUE TO LOW WATER LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN BAYS,
HARBORS, INLETS, AND TIDAL RIVERS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 65 46 64 37 / 0 10 90 30
PANAMA CITY 65 54 65 37 / 0 40 100 10
DOTHAN 67 49 61 33 / 0 70 90 10
ALBANY 64 46 60 33 / 0 50 100 10
VALDOSTA 65 42 64 37 / 0 10 80 40
CROSS CITY 64 36 68 38 / 0 0 40 60
APALACHICOLA 61 53 63 37 / 0 10 90 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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