255
FXUS62 KTAE 231746
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
146 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES INTO THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. BEACHGOERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT LIFEGUARDS ON SURF
CONDITIONS AND DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF IF RED OR DOUBLE
RED FLAGS ARE FLYING.
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS OF 40-60 MPH, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS,
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM STORMS.
SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY UNDER
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1037 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
TODAY'S RAIN CHANCES (ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING) HAD TO BE REDONE
BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. MODELS HAVE HANDLED CONVECTION POORLY
WITH RESPECT TO POP, WHICH HAS BEEN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
FORGOTTEN COAST AND OFFSHORE. THE 12Z/13Z HRRR CAPTURES THIS
ACTIVITY THE BEST, SO BLENDED THAT OUTPUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS,
THEN MIXED IN LOCAL CAMS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE ON HOW THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVE INLAND IS ON THE LOWER
SIDE GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE UPPER CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING OUR
EASTERN TIMEZONES AND MORE OF AN UNTAPPED AIRMASS WEST OF THE ACF
BASIN. THE APALACHEE BAY SEABREEZE MAY BE HINDERED OR DELAYED
COMPARED TO ITS EMERALD COAST COUNTERPART, SO THAT WILL BE A
LOCATION TO WATCH FOR INITIATION AS DAYTIME HEATING RAMPS UP.
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
FOR MOST OF SW GA MAINLY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
GUSTS AND HAIL. THE 12Z KFFC SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE (HIGHER AT KJAX) AIRMASS WITH 25 KTS OF 0-6-KM SHEAR. THE
LATTER IS AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE SPINNING
OVER THE MS VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.7" IMPLIES
THAT STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND MAY EVOLVE
INTO CELL-MERGING CLUSTERS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THE ACTIVE PATTERN ROLLS ALONG TODAY AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DOMINANT
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST,
WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE THERE. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE, WE'LL HAVE A BIT MORE SHEAR TO WORK WITH
TODAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25-35 KT,
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. THIS WILL YIELD A BETTER-THAN-AVERAGE
CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS
OUTLINED MOST OF OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS OF 40-60 MPH AND SOME HAIL. PWATS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE 1.8 TO 2 INCH RANGE, MEANING TODAY'S STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. IF ANY STORMS TRAIN AND/OR PRODUCE HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN, LOW-LYING, OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. LOCALIZED
REASONABLE HIGH-END TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE MOST
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY FADE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, WE'LL
STILL HAVE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GIVEN THE ABUNDANT SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TODAY, HIGHS WILL BE
HELD BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST, THOUGH NEAR 90 ALONG
THE COASTAL AND SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY, CLIMBING TO NEAR 100. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY AMIDST DEEP MOISTURE. THIS WILL YIELD YET ANOTHER
HIGH RAIN CHANCE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. SHEAR DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE AS
STRONG ON SUNDAY, AND DCAPE ISN'T AS HIGH GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIR
MASS. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE VIA WATERLOADING,
AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN PWATS STILL
NEAR 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES.
A MID-LEVEL LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX MONDAY, THEN GETS
ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US BY TUESDAY AS
THE LARGER TROUGHING PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE, THE DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP
IN TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA AS PWATS REMAIN AROUND 1.8 TO 2
INCHES EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THUS, THE PATTERN OF
HIGH RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY MARCHES ON. EACH DAY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OF URBAN, LOW-LYING, AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE 80S (THOUGH NEAR 90 IN THE
COASTAL AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE BIG BEND). HEAT INDEX VALUES
ALONG COASTAL AREAS WILL STILL BE NEAR 100. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE
70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THIS AFTN. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS ARE AT ABY/VLD, THOUGH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
SUPPORT TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL BUT ECP AND PREVAILING VCTS.
CONVECTION GRADUALLY WANES THIS EVENING WHILE SHIFTING TO THE NE,
SO THERE COULD BE LINGERING -TSRA/-SHRA AT THE EASTERN SITES.
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TMRW MORNING, LOW STRATUS IMPOSES MVFR TO
PERHAPS IFR CIGS, FOLLOWED BY STEADY IMPROVEMENT MID TO LATE TMRW
MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS AROUND 1-3 FEET. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL YIELD GOOD DISPERSIONS.
HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS, THOUGH THESE TOTALS
CAN OCCUR IN A FEW HOURS FROM SOME OF THESE STORMS. LOCALIZED HIGH-
END TOTALS FOR THE WEEK COULD EXCEED 6 INCHES. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN PLACE, STORMS COULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH
HIGH RAINFALL RATES. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
SHOULD STORMS TRAIN OR MOVE SLOWLY. RIGHT NOW, GIVEN HOW LOW OUR
RIVERS HAVE BEEN FROM THE PROLONGED DROUGHT, RIVER FLOODING IS NOT A
CONCERN. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MOST OF OUR RIVERS
WOULD NEED AT LEAST 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN TO EVEN REACH MINOR
FLOOD.
THE RECENT AND FORECAST RAINFALL IS EXTREMELY BENEFICIAL FOR OUR
DROUGHT SITUATION. SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE AREA, BUT THE RAINFALL SHOULD HELP EASE IMPACTS. FOR THE LATEST
ON DROUGHT IMPACTS, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 85 73 88 73 / 50 30 50 20
PANAMA CITY 84 73 87 74 / 50 10 40 20
DOTHAN 81 69 86 69 / 40 30 70 40
ALBANY 83 68 87 69 / 60 60 60 50
VALDOSTA 86 69 88 70 / 60 40 90 50
CROSS CITY 90 72 92 72 / 70 30 70 40
APALACHICOLA 83 76 85 76 / 80 20 30 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...IG3
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page