261  
FXUS62 KTAE 260530  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
130 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2019  
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY]  
 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF VLD BY 08Z. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY  
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS  
ARE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.  
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK,  
AND INCREASE, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.  
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY (8:30 PM EDT) LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MS  
AND NEW ORLEANS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH  
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY LOW  
AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG MAINLY IN THE FL PANHANDLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR  
IS HIGH AROUND 50 KNOTS. THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT  
UNTIL 1 AM EDT FOR MOST OF THE FL PANHANDLE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE  
THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]
 
 
UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE  
REGION WILL LIFT OUT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY. LARGELY  
ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE ITS PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT A WHOLE LOT  
COOLER THAN IN FRONT, SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD ON  
SATURDAY. EXPECT TO START THE DAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BEFORE  
RISING TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
   
LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]
 
 
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY AND WARM. MAY SEE  
SOME 90 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEP INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY.  
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY]  
 
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION  
TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING HOURS.  
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL  
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. RAIN WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE  
REGION BY SUNRISE.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS OVERNIGHT AS A  
FRONT CROSSES THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS COULD LOCALLY BE MUCH  
HIGHER IN AND NEAR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL  
IMPROVE INTO SATURDAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION  
BY SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40 PERCENT  
RANGE TOMORROW AND IN THE 20-35 PERCENT RANGE ON SATURDAY. RED FLAG  
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED SINCE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SATURDAY. HIGH  
DISPERSIONS OVER 75 ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FALL.  
ELSEWHERE, RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE GENERALLY STEADY OR FALLING.  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN  
HALF AN INCH IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE COAST.  
THESE AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY RISES IN THE SMALLER  
BASINS, BUT SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE NOT EXPECTED.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. SPOTTERS SHOULD SAFELY REPORT  
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND/OR DAMAGE BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR  
TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 64 82 53 84 51 / 90 10 0 0 0  
PANAMA CITY 65 79 57 76 58 / 100 0 0 0 0  
DOTHAN 63 78 52 80 53 / 90 0 0 0 0  
ALBANY 65 80 54 81 54 / 90 10 0 0 0  
VALDOSTA 64 82 53 83 53 / 90 30 0 0 0  
CROSS CITY 65 82 54 83 55 / 90 50 0 0 0  
APALACHICOLA 66 80 57 76 57 / 90 10 0 0 0  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...MCD  
SHORT TERM...CAMP  
LONG TERM...CAMP  
AVIATION...LF  
MARINE...CAMP  
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY  
HYDROLOGY...CAMP  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab FL Page
The Nexlab GA Page
The Nexlab AL Page Main Text Page