699
FXUS62 KTAE 141425
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1025 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
- A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISKS. STAY HYDRATED,
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED SPACES, AVOID STRENUOUS
ACTIVITIES DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY, AND WEAR LIGHT
CLOTHING.
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE WITHIN A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ON SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. FOCUSING ON THIS AFTERNOON, PM
THUNDER WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STRONG INSTABILITY, HIGH DOWNDRAFT CAPE, BUT
ONLY WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THIS WILL
SUPPORT SINGLE CELL CONVECTION WITH FAIRLY ROBUST DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL.
EXTREME HEAT CONTINUES, WITH WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAINING IN
EFFECT.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST
LOOK TO DIVE DOWN TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
TOMORROW, MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A POSITIVELY-TILTED
AMPLIFYING TROUGH AT 850MB ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE NORTHEAST
GULF REGION WILL BE AT THE FAR TAIL-END OF THIS FEATURE ON SATURDAY.
REMNANT PV FROM STORMS ALONG THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TODAY,
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH THIS FEATURE
ACROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. PWATS LOOK TO BE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
AROUND 2.25-2.50 INCHES, ALONG WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY
SHOWING DCAPE AROUND 800+ J/KG ON SATURDAY. WITH PLENTY OF DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE SPC HAS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 1 OF
5) ON SATURDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SEVERE WINDS.
OTHERWISE, AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD OVER THE GULF COAST STATES HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. AS THE HEAT BUILDS, HEAT ADVISORIES ARE ESSENTIALLY
EXPECTED EVERY DAY WITH EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS NEAR/ALONG THE GULF COAST.
GIVEN THAT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A PROLONGED HEAT EVENT THAT COULD
EXTEND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK, IT'S VERY IMPORTANT TO PRACTICE HEAT
SAFETY, ESPECIALLY WITH SOME SCHOOLS STARTING AGAIN. HEAT IMPACTS
COMPOUND WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY. HERE ARE SOME HELPFUL SAFETY
REMINDERS:
- STAY HYDRATED, EVEN IF NOT THIRSTY. THAT INCLUDES PEOPLE AND PETS.
- LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE HOTTEST PARTS OF THE
AFTERNOON.
- WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT, LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING.
- TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED SPACES.
- ALWAYS CHECK THE BACK SEAT FOR CHILDREN AND PETS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. PROB30 REMAINS IN PLACE FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING AREA TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL GULF WATERS, MAINTAINING LIGHT AND GENTLE BREEZES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BECOMING MODERATE AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND BAYS IS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO LAND AREAS, BUT NEARSHORE MORNING
SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD POSE A WATERSPOUT RISK. ANY CLUSTERS OF
STORMS THAT MOVE OFFSHORE COULD POSE A THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
LIGHT WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH GOOD DISPERSIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, WITH CHANCES INCREASING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
105-115.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
WEEK FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY DOWNPOURS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY
NO RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 98 77 97 76 / 40 10 70 10
PANAMA CITY 95 80 95 80 / 20 10 40 10
DOTHAN 97 77 96 76 / 30 10 60 10
ALBANY 97 76 97 76 / 40 10 50 20
VALDOSTA 98 76 97 75 / 50 10 50 10
CROSS CITY 96 75 96 76 / 40 10 30 0
APALACHICOLA 93 79 93 79 / 20 0 30 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ007>011-019-028-029-034-108-128-134.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ012>018-027-112-114-115-118-127-326-426.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ120>131-142>148-
155>161.
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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