952
FXUS62 KTAE 221722
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
122 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 111 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
- WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWING PASSAGE
OF A DRY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25-35 MPH DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO STRONG AND NEAR-GALE NORTHEAST WINDS
FOLLOWING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS WILL
BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WHEN FREQUENT NEAR TO GALE-FORCE WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
THE COASTAL LOW (NOW SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE) OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTERLY AND BE ABSORBED
BY A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WITH OUR WINDS BEING FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST, AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE ARE
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND ALL THE
WAY TO THE GULF AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN! A BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE EASTERN BAHAMAS, AND A
SURFACE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES, PUSHING
A BACKDOOR (DRY) COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THIS SET-UP WILL
CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE TRI-STATE
REGION. BY SATURDAY, 850MB AND 925MB WINDS ARE 30 MPH AND 25 MPH
RESPECTIVELY. THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE CREATING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH THROUGH
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY COOLING BACK INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S FOR THE WEEKEND AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
THE SURFACE WILL WEAKEN AT THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, LOOSENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. OUR WINDS WILL DECREASE AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BY THE
END OF THE LONG TERM. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW
TO MID-50S. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN
FURTHER THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE BAHAMAS.
THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
WINDS THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
COME WITH FREQUENT NEAR TO GALE-FORCE GUSTS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
START TO DECREASE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
LOW MINIMAL HUMIDITY VALUES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE SHOULD FILTER IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVES IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT. DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE FAIR TO
MODERATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS ALONG THE
I-10/I- 75 CORRIDOR. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 53 78 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 56 79 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 52 78 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 49 77 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 50 76 51 76 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 52 78 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 59 77 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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