385
FXUS62 KTAE 141008
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
608 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 606 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A MEDIUM TO
HIGH (60 TO 80 PERCENT) CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 90
DEGREES. THE HEAT MAY AFFECT THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE, ESPECIALLY
WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM BY SUNDAY. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND, WHEN THERE IS A A
MEDIUM TO HIGH (60 TO 80 PERCENT) CHANCE OF TEMPS EXCEEDING
90 DEGREES. THE HEAT MAY AFFECT THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE,
ESPECIALLY WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
A DRIER AIR MASS IS SPREADING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING,
IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE
DRY AIR, CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER ON TAP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS
WILL TEND TO MAXIMIZE IN THE SEABREEZE ZONE FROM THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE EVENING EACH DAY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS RANGING
FROM 1 TO AROUND 2 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS HIGH DISPERSION ACROSS THE REGION JUST
INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 MPH
TODAY WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH FALLING INTO THE 30S. ON FRIDAY,
POCKETS OF LOW DISPERSION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH ON FRIDAY IN THE MID-20S TO
MID-30S. ON SATURDAY, SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE AIR
MASS MOISTENING, AND AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HIGH DISPERSION.
DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH TEMPS
WARMING TO HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS PUSHED BRUCE CREEK INTO
ACTION STAGE. THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER AT THOMASVILLE IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH ACTION STAGE AND CREST THIS AFTERNOON. NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST, THUS THE MAIN HYDROLOGIC
CONCERN REMAINS THE ONGOING DROUGHT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL
DROUGHT IMPACTS, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 84 56 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 84 60 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 79 53 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 80 52 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 82 54 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 87 56 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 83 62 79 64 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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