188
FXUS62 KTAE 032002
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
402 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. WHEN
THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
- HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS IN AIR-CONDITIONED PLACES, WEAR LIGHT CLOTHING,
AND KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT STRESS AND ILLNESSES.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLIDE OFF INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
TO TAKE PLACE. PWATS LOOK TO INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ENHANCING MOISTURE TRANSPORT
NORTHWARD. THE DAY OF GREATEST INFLUENCE FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
SUNDAY WHEN THE SURFACE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAKES
ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. THAT BEING ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA AND
NORTHERN ALABAMA. INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES, HOWEVER THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD LOOKS TO BE RATHER
WEAK. THUS, WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AL, DECREASING IN COVERAGE AS ONE HEADS
TOWARDS THE FL BIG BEND, WITH LOW END CHANCES TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER.
AFTER SUNDAY, THE SURFACE FEATURE GETS HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, AS HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REESTABLISH
ITSELF. THIS WILL LEAD TO REGULAR AFTERNOON SUMMERTIME POP-UP
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HEAT ADVISORIES AS THE HEAT
INDEX INCREASES TOWARDS 108+ DEGREES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FOCUSING
SEABREEZE WILL REMAIN CONFINED BETWEEN I-10 AND THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FURTHER EAST TO
THE SOUTH OF TLH, IN CONTRAST TO LESSER COVERAGE FURTHER WEST
TOWARD ECP. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, CONFIDENCE IN LIGHTNING WITHIN
10 MILES OF EITHER TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 18Z TAFS,
BUT IT BEARS MONITORING. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW. NORTH OF I-10
AT VLD, ABY, AND DHN, HAVE OMITTED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
A RETURN TO A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, WITH SEAS REMAINING
TRANQUIL AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
LOW TO MODERATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS DRIER CONDITIONS LINGER. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO
AROUND 35 TO 45 PERCENT TODAY BUT SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND
AND NEXT WEEK AS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT LOCALIZED INCREASES ACROSS FL DUE TO THE
SEABREEZE CAN BE EXPECTED MOST AFTERNOONS. THE PATTERN WILL FOLLOW
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME NORMS AS WE SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. DISPERSIONS WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD FOR THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAIN CONCERNS OUTSIDE FIRE WEATHER
WILL BE INCREASING HEAT INDICES AS THEY CLIMB TO AROUND 108 BY THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL SET UP THIS WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE FORECAST WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS IF A SLOWER-MOVING THUNDERSTORM PASSES OVER. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 76 97 76 95 / 10 30 10 40
PANAMA CITY 79 93 79 91 / 10 20 10 10
DOTHAN 75 96 75 95 / 10 10 10 20
ALBANY 75 97 77 96 / 10 10 10 30
VALDOSTA 75 98 76 97 / 10 10 10 30
CROSS CITY 75 96 76 94 / 30 50 30 40
APALACHICOLA 79 91 79 90 / 0 20 20 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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