507
FXUS62 KTAE 242325
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
625 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 624 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
- MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE OF >1" OF RAINFALL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE LOW 80S THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
ONE MORE COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR US TONIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TONIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
START ADVECTING A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS, IMPACTING THESE COUNTIES
FIRST. A WARMING TREND QUICKLY SETS IN, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE 70S BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE STARTING THURSDAY AS OUR POSITIONING AT THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC HIGH ENHANCES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
TRANSIENT AND LIGHT LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS APPEAR MOST LIKELY ON
THURSDAY, WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LIMITED TO
ABOUT 0.05-0.1". A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY, BRINGING WITH IT A
MORE ROBUST SIGNAL FOR RAINFALL. MEAN NBM RAINFALL TOTALS ARE AROUND
0.75-1.0" FOR THIS SYSTEM. SO, WHILE ANY RAINFALL IS WELCOME AT THIS
POINT, IT WILL ONCE AGAIN NOT BE ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE THE
DROUGHT. THERE EXISTS AT LEAST A LOW-END CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM, OF WHICH SOME COULD CONCEIVABLY BE STRONG. MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW THE THREAT OF STORMS MAY EVOLVE, IF AT ALL. PLENTIFUL DEEP-LAYER
SPEED SHEAR AND ADEQUATE FORCING FROM THE NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPEAR TO BE IN-PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS INSTABILITY AND THE
MAGNITUDE OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS THAT OCCURS (IF AT ALL). OVERALL,
THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL. SOMETHING TO WATCH AS
WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM, WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISE TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 226 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS,
WITH MORE TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT SEA FOG
MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING - ESPECIALLY OVER
APALACHEE BAY. LIGHT SHOWERS ENTER THE FORECAST STARTING THURSDAY,
WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 226 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ADVECT A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
MASS OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL QUICKLY LIFT MINIMUM RH VALUES TO
ABOUT 50% ON WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO 60-65% BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED ON WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 20-25KTS,
WITH DISPERSIONS CLIMBING TO AROUND 80-90 - PRIMARILY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF I-10. BOTH TRANSPORT WINDS AND DISPERSIONS DECREASE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AS LIGHT SHOWERS
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. FRIDAY SEES THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT,
LIKELY BRINGING WITH IT A WETTING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SOME STORMS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 226 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
RAINFALL CHANCES START TO INCREASE THURSDAY AS SOME LOW-TOPPED GULF
SHOWERS SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
FAST MOVING, WITH MEAN QPF FORECASTS THURSDAY GENERALLY AROUND 0.05-
0.1". A MORE HYDROLOGICALLY IMPACTFUL SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY IN THE FORM OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS
A MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE (~1.3" AT KTLH) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
PER THE SPC'S SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE SLOWING
AS IT ENTERS THE REGION WHILE DEEP LAYER FLOW INCREASINGLY PARALLELS
IT. THUS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME HEAVIER POCKETS OF
RAINFALL WITH QUICK RUNOFF OVER THE DRY GROUND LEADING TO MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 38 70 57 73 / 0 0 30 40
PANAMA CITY 46 71 61 73 / 0 10 40 40
DOTHAN 38 72 57 75 / 0 0 30 60
ALBANY 36 71 56 73 / 0 0 40 60
VALDOSTA 35 71 53 75 / 0 0 20 30
CROSS CITY 35 69 50 75 / 0 0 0 10
APALACHICOLA 45 68 61 70 / 0 10 30 40
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
FLZ112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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