248  
FXUS62 KTAE 021438  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
1038 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS  
MORNING, IT HAS BEEN QUIET OVER THE LAND SO FAR. DO EXPECT TO SEE  
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER LAND THOUGH INTO THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING WITH THE MAIN DRIVING FACTOR THE SEABREEZE. A COMPLEX OF  
STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MS BUT THIS WILL STAY FURTHER WEST OF  
THE CWA SO NOT EXPECTING TO SEE QUITE THE ORGANIZATION OF STORMS  
WE SAW ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE  
POP FORECAST FOR TODAY BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [657 AM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
AN MCS THAT MOVED SOUTH THROUGH MS/AL OVERNIGHT HAS SPAWNED AN MCV  
THAT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THEN EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE MCV  
WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE  
AND NEARSHORE WATERS, WITH STORMS SPREADING EAST THROUGH APALACHEE  
BAY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY TO  
REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. FURTHER NORTHEAST, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS DRIFTING INTO OUR  
SOUTH GEORGIA COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  
FINALLY, OUTFLOW FROM EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG THE COAST,  
UPSTREAM CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING, AND  
CONVERGENT FLOW INTO THE SEABREEZE WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A  
SCATTERING OF STORMS NORTH OF I-10 AND INTO SE AL/SW GA. THUS,  
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY AT  
VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE THE  
WIDESPREAD STORMS AND CLOUD-COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES  
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN  
HEAT INDICES WELL INTO THE 90S.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY]
 
 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT  
THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH WESTERLY  
LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS WITH  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES TOMORROW AND SATURDAY. POPS  
WILL BE 60 TO 80 PERCENT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY. HIGHS  
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER  
70S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]
 
 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION UNTIL A  
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN MIDWEEK. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL  
BE OVER THE REGION UNTIL A WEAK HIGH MOVES IN MIDWEEK. LOW LEVEL  
FLOW WILL BE MAINLY WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY. A WET PATTERN WILL BE  
IN PLACE WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EXPECTED  
EVERY AFTERNOON/EVENING. POPS WILL BE HIGH AROUND 60 TO 85 PERCENT  
EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND  
LOWER 90S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.  
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY]  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY AT ECP, TLH, AND VLD TODAY AND  
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM THE COAST. MORE  
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS HAVE A LOWER CHANCE OF IMPACTING DHN AND  
ABY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET. A WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. STRONG OR SEVERE  
STORMS CAN QUICKLY LEAD TO DANGEROUS INCREASES IN WINDS AND SEAS.  
WATERSPOUTS CAN ALSO DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW  
DAYS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
A WET PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE'LL NEED TO  
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL HEADING INTO THIS  
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT ABOVE AVERAGE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS  
EXPECTED LEADING UP TO THIS WEEKEND. CURRENTLY, THERE ARE NO  
SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR FLOODING, BUT THE PATTERN BEARS WATCHING.  
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT 5  
TO 7 DAYS. ISOLATED AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER, ESPECIALLY AS AN AREA  
OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR (WHILE FOLLOWING ALL LOCAL, STATE, AND CDC GUIDELINES) BY  
CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 89 74 91 73 88 / 60 30 80 40 80  
PANAMA CITY 86 77 90 77 89 / 60 30 70 50 70  
DOTHAN 86 73 90 73 88 / 50 30 80 30 80  
ALBANY 89 74 92 73 89 / 40 40 70 20 70  
VALDOSTA 89 73 90 73 87 / 70 40 80 30 80  
CROSS CITY 89 74 91 73 89 / 60 40 80 50 70  
APALACHICOLA 87 77 89 77 87 / 70 50 60 50 60  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL  
BAY.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...FIEUX  
NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN  
SHORT TERM...MCD  
LONG TERM...MCD  
AVIATION...HARRIGAN  
MARINE...MCD  
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN  
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS  
 
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