167
FXUS62 KTAE 100550
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
150 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL EXPAND AND INCREASE
FURTHER NORTH TODAY INTO OUR GEORGIA AND ALABAMA COUNTIES. THE
DAILY RHYTHM OF AFTERNOON STORMS, PLUS COASTAL STORMS IN THE
MORNINGS, WILL THEN CONTINUE AREAWIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY FOR THE NEXT
WEEK, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY REACHING THE 98-106
DEGREE RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF DANGEROUS
HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 107 DEGREES AROUND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, MAINLY OVER THE FLORIDA COUNTIES.
- PATCHY MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES BEING MOST HEAVILY FAVORED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS IS ALREADY
WEAKENING, AND IT WILL DISSIPATE BY THE END OF TODAY. OUR RECENT
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHERLY TODAY, AS
LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WESTWARD. IN
RESPONSE, THE VERY MOIST 2+ INCH PW AIR MASS JUST OFFSHORE WILL
EXPAND ONSHORE AND INLAND TODAY, SUPPORTING A MARKED INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, COMPARED WITH
THE LAST TWO AFTERNOONS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN OUR ALABAMA
AND WESTERN GEORGIA COUNTIES, WHICH HAVE LACKED CONVECTION THE
LAST 2 DAYS.
PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING,
AS LENGTHENING NIGHTS ACT ON OUR VERY MOIST AND MUGGY AIR MASS.
MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE OVER INLAND AREAS, WITH OUR GEORGIA
COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE VERY LITTLE SENSIBLE
CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY WEATHER. IT WILL GENERALLY BE HOT AND HUMID,
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOIST AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG OVER INLAND AREAS MOST MORNINGS. NO HIGH-
IMPACT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
FEATURING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AND A VERY MOIST AIR
MASS. A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE AXIS ON FRIDAY WILL STRETCH FROM THE
FL PENINSULA OUT TO BERMUDA.
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THAT 500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION WHILE STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY. LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN FURTHER, BUT THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. NONETHELESS, A SMALL DECREASE IN
CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR WHILE 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
SLOWLY RISING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL COME WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS
CHALLENGING THE MID 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S, THERE WILL
BE A LOW CHANCE THAT THE HEAT INDEX COULD EXCEED 107F ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY OVER OUR FL COUNTIES.
THE 500 MB RIDGE WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN UP NEAR THE
DELMARVA REGION. HERE ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, OUR LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY. A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE, SIMPLY MEANING THE WEATHER WILL STILL BE WARM
AND MUGGY. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL STILL SUPPORT DAILY RHYTHMS
OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED APPROACHING DAYBREAK FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS, ALONG WITH
REDUCED VSBYS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING TO
VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BUBBLE UP FROM THE
SOUTH AND GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING, THEN LIGHT AND
GENTLE SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BRINGING EVEN LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS.
OTHERWISE, AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SUDDEN WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE PATTERN MAY ALSO FAVOR FAIR WEATHER WATERSPOUTS IN THE
MORNINGS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
A WARM, MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. A TURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL PUSH RICHER
MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA DISTRICTS, HELPING
THE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO ALSO EXPAND
NORTH TODAY. LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE IN WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY FEATURE A SMALL
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND A WARMING OF TEMPERATURES.
SO THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE
SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
THE DAILY RHYTHM OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT WEEK, PLUS MORNING STORMS NEAR THE COAST. THESE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OR RIVER FLOODING. HOWEVER,
SHORT-LIVED NUISANCE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BENEATH THE CORE OF
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 92 74 91 74 / 60 20 70 20
PANAMA CITY 89 77 88 77 / 40 30 60 40
DOTHAN 92 72 91 73 / 50 20 60 20
ALBANY 93 73 92 73 / 40 30 50 20
VALDOSTA 93 73 92 73 / 60 20 50 10
CROSS CITY 91 74 91 74 / 40 20 50 20
APALACHICOLA 87 77 87 78 / 60 30 40 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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