171
FXUS62 KTAE 311330 CCA
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
930 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 909 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2025
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2025
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WESTWARD
THROUGH OUR GULF WATERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE
NORTHEAST US WITH RIDGING RIDING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL INDUCE
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. THIS WILL USHER
IN DRIER AIR THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, HOLD THE FRONT AT
BAY FROM MOVING MUCH AT ALL, AND PIN THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
CLOSER TO THE COAST. WITH HIGHER PWATS LOCATED SOUTH OF I10 AND THE
SEABREEZE PINNED, HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCES (30-50%) RELEGATED IN
COASTAL SECTIONS, SOUTHEAST BIG BEND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA IF
CONVECTION MOVES THAT FAR NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE ON TAP, NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. TONIGHT, LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2025
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, AN
AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND GIVE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BROAD NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LIGHT SOUTH
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE DRY GIVEN THE LACK
OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE BROAD FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT LINGERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ON LABOR
DAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH NOSES SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
WITH ONLY PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND POSSIBLY SEEING RAIN
ON MONDAY AS THESE LOCATIONS RESIDE CLOSER TO THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION BUT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, BUT GIVEN THE
LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN QUITE LOW.
FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO STALL BUT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD SUPRESS MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL AND
HELP TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP INTO THE LOW 90S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2025
MVFR/IFR CIGS HAVEN'T QUITE TRANSPIRED AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.
THOUGH, PATCHY STRATUS CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR STRATUS TO AFFECT TLH/ABY/VLD THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH VLD HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBS AND KEPT
A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS THROUGH 14Z WHILE REMOVED MENTION AT THE
OTHER SITES. OTHERWISE, VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
NORTHEAST WINDS BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AT ABY/VLD WITH SPEEDS 14-17 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE GULF INTO TUESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TODAY BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY OR NEAR-ADVISORY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN
WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST
WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS DECREASING AND BECOMING GENERALLY WESTERLY
LATER IN THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2025
A DRYING TREND TAKES HOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDER STORMS CONFINED TO THE
I-75 CORRIDOR OF FL AND THE FL BIG BEND. MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE THRU TUESDAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
AWAY FROM THE COAST TOPPING OUT AROUND 5,000 FEET. THIS PROMOTES
POCKETS OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSION ACROSS INLAND REGIONS TODAY
AND MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2025
AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH IT. SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BIG
BEND THIS AFTERNOON BUT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT AND NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 86 69 85 66 / 20 0 10 0
PANAMA CITY 88 71 89 69 / 20 10 20 10
DOTHAN 85 66 85 62 / 10 0 0 0
ALBANY 86 66 85 62 / 10 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 86 67 85 64 / 30 10 10 0
CROSS CITY 88 71 88 68 / 60 20 30 10
APALACHICOLA 85 73 86 72 / 50 20 30 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...SCHOLL
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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