019
FXUS62 KTAE 011731
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
131 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR SATURDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL
GEORGIA, AND ALL OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AS OUR NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL,
AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA TO RECEIVE
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 808 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST GREATER POP COVERAGE IN THE EASTERN
FL PANHANDLE/BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A STATIONARY FRONT IS MEANDERING ALONG THE
COAST AND WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
INITIATE BEFORE MOVING INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES SO, IT HAS THE POTENTIAL
OF LIFTING THE FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA BEFORE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH. SHOWERS AND
STORMS, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE, ARE LIKELY WITH THIS LOW AS IT
RACES THROUGH THE AREA. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS, BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER WEATHER MOVES IN
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
NOW FOR A DEEPER LOOK AT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IS IN THE
PROCESS OF OPENING UP INTO A SHORTWAVE AS IT TRAVELS EAST.
MEANWHILE, AN H5 TROUGH IS DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. TIMING IS SUCH THAT THE TROUGH PHASES
WITH THE SHORTWAVE JUST WEST OR OVER OUR REGION. THE LOCATION OF
THIS DOES MATTER BECAUSE IF IT PHASES A LITTLE SOONER, IT COULD
ALLOW FOR A STRONGER SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT. THAT WOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND GET
MORE OF OUR AREA INTO THE WARM SECTOR. ON THE FLIP SIDE, IF IT
HAPPENS CLOSER TO US, OR ON TOP OF US, THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS JUST THAT, A WAVE. THIS MEANS THE FRONT WON'T BE ABLE TO
MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND, IF AT ALL. ALL THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE
AREAS THAT GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
DEALING WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER (DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE
HAIL, TORNADOES), WHEREAS THOSE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT
ARE MORE LIMITED TO HAIL AND PERHAPS A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO.
EITHER WAY, THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHEST WE'VE
SEEN IN A WHILE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 60 TO
80 KNOTS; 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY (SRH) IS FORECAST TO 150-200
M2/S2; SOUTHWESTERLY H85 JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 35 TO 40
KNOTS WHILE THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY H5 JET INCREASES TO 80+ KNOTS.
ADD IN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 C/KM AND THERE'S THE
POTENTIAL FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. AS IT STANDS EARLY THIS MORNING, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA, AND ALL OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN, ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE
HAIL, AND TORNADOES.
ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, WE'LL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND MUCH OF
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. RAIN AND STORMS MARCHING ACROSS THE REGION
COMBINED WITH A COOLER NORTHERLY WIND SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDES OF THE SE
FLORIDA BIG BEND WHERE THEY'LL HIT THE LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
70S ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL TUMBLE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A MODERATING TREND BEGINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE 80S RETURN FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND
WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION SOMETIME NEXT THURSDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MUCH-
NEEDED RAIN AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH ON/OFF -SHRA AND BRIEF TSRA TODAY.
WAVE OF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN TAFS TRANSITION FROM TEMPO GROUPS
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO PREVAILING FOR A LINE OF ROBUST TSRA.
ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO AT TLH/VLD FRI MORNING FOR GUSTY WINDS
WITH CONVECTION. CIGS REMAIN SUB-VFR THEREAFTER THROUGH 18Z FRI.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOVES
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS AS A COLD FRONT BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE POSSIBLY TO
ADVISORY-LEVELS FOR SMALL CRAFT BY SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MAY LEAD
TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS, INCLUDING WATERSPOUTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
LOW DISPERSIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA
OUTSIDES OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. A FRONT DRAPED OVER THE REGION
WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BRINGS A WETTING RAIN TO MUCH
OF THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE ERRATIC AND GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF OUR DISTRICTS FOR SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT WITH MINRH
VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
AMPLE MOISTURE, AS INDICATED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWATS) OF
1.5", AND A NEARBY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A MORE ROBUST LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST TO RACE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BY THE TIME THE RAIN EXITS THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MUCH OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO PICK UP
AROUND 1" OR MUCH-NEEDED RAIN. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2" TO 3" IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY IF WE HAD
MULTIPLE STORMS GO OVER THE SAME AREA. IF THE HIGHER FORECAST TOTALS
VERIFY, LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IN MORE
URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
THIS RAIN WON'T BE DROUGHT-BUSTING BY ANY STRETCH OF THE
IMAGINATION, BUT IT WILL HELP KEEP IT FROM WORSENING.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFO & STATEMENTS, VISIT THESE WEBSITES:
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 83 61 69 49 / 40 70 100 10
PANAMA CITY 80 59 71 52 / 60 90 100 10
DOTHAN 70 55 67 46 / 70 90 90 0
ALBANY 73 55 66 46 / 70 90 100 10
VALDOSTA 83 61 69 48 / 40 60 100 20
CROSS CITY 88 65 82 51 / 20 30 90 40
APALACHICOLA 79 65 75 54 / 50 70 100 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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