443
FXUS62 KTAE 171402
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1002 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
- SUB-FREEZING WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL LATER
THIS MORNING. A WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE OCCURS LATE TONIGHT-
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL INLAND
COUNTIES.
- CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOSTERS ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED, FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
CHILLY CONDITIONS DEFINE THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WITH SUB-FREEZING
WIND CHILLS AMIDST FREEZING TO NEAR-FREEZING AIR TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING. THE COLD POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS KEEPS TODAY'S HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND UPPER CIRRUS CLOUDS AND
PREVAILING NW WIND.
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOSTERED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE WITH POCKETS OF
FROST FOR INLAND COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CURRENT LIMITING FACTORS ON FROST ARE BORDERLINE RH AND OVERNIGHT
WINDS NOT GOING COMPLETELY CALM. ELECTED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING UNTIL THE CURRENT ONE EXPIRES. SUCH
CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE IMPACTFUL THAN NORMAL TO AGRICULTURE GIVEN
THE PROLONGED WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS LEADING TO EARLY
PLANTING/BLOOMING.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY, THUS
MAKING FOR NE WEDGE-LIKE FLOW PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
REBOUND TO THE 60S, BUT COULD TREND SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TO THE
NORTH IF THICK CLOUDS LINGER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE ANCHORS ITSELF OVER
THE DESERT SW MID-WEEK WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING MAKING FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF REINFORCING DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TO NORTHERN GULF MEANS OUR WEATHER SHOULD BE WARM & RAIN-
FREE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TO THE 70S THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK, THEN INCREASE TO THE LOW 80S THIS WEEKEND AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES INCREASE BY SEVERAL DEGREES EACH
SUCCESSIVE DAY FROM MID 30S/LOW 40S ON THURSDAY TO LOW-TO-MID 50S
BY SATURDAY, THEN HOLD FAIRLY STEADY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
UPPER IMPULSE DIVING IN FROM THE NORTH MAY SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY, BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW. ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PERIOD FROM A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS, AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS, ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT BY
TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
CAUTIONARY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS AND SHIFT
NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, LEADING TO
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AMIDST NEAR TO CRITICALLY LOW RH. THE LATTER WILL MAKE FOR
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS
YESTERDAY TEMPERS ANY SIGNIFICANT THREATS. SIMILAR MIN RH IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW, THOUGH WINDS SLACKEN OUT OF THE NE. DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
RADAR-ESTIMATED RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED SOME WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75 INCHES WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER VALLEY AND
SCATTERED TOTALS OF 1.5-2.5 INCHES TO THE EAST WITH A LOCALIZED
MAXIMA OF 3-4.5 INCHES IN JEFFERSON COUNTY, FL. THESE BENEFICIAL
RAINS ARE VERY HELPFUL FOR THE CURRENT DROUGHT IN PLACE, BUT WE'RE
STILL A LONG WAY FROM RELIEF OF D2-D3 CONDITIONS. NO RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS ACROSS THE AREA AND
HYDROLOGY CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITES:
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 55 30 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 56 35 60 41 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 53 31 57 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 53 30 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 54 30 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 59 28 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 55 36 60 42 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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