163  
FXUS62 KTAE 222308  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
608 PM EST WED JAN 22 2020  
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY]  
 
VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF  
THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO MVFR  
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY STARTING AROUND MIDDAY AT DHN, ABY, AND VLD.  
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS KEPT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ECP AND TLH  
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [232 PM EST]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [TONIGHT AND THURSDAY]
 
 
REGION IS CURRENTLY SITUATED UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN  
TROUGHS OFF THE EAST COAST AND OVER THE PLAINS STATES.  
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS ONLY  
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AT THE SAME  
TIME, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL  
BEGIN TO PUSH MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. EXPECT  
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT, WITH SCATTERED  
SHOWERS APPROACHING THE WESTERN ZONES BY SUNRISE. SHOWERS WILL  
GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY  
 
   
SHORT TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]
 
 
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT  
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN  
VERY LIMITED OVER LAND AREAS, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME  
THUNDER OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, EXPECT  
ANY STORMS TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF. SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO  
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
   
LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]
 
 
BY SATURDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE EXITED TO OUR EAST. COOL AND  
DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE  
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS A GULF LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. POPS  
AROUND 30 WILL BE LIMITED TO OFFSHORE AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DRY  
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE  
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL  
GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE MID-50S AND LOW-60S SATURDAY TO THE MID-  
UPPER 60S BY WEDNESDAY. SIMILARLY, LOWS WILL WARM FROM THE UPPER 30S  
TO THE UPPER-40S AND LOW-50S.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BOTH AHEAD  
OF AND BEHIND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN  
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
LOW DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SE ALABAMA, SW GEORGIA,  
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY. THIS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO  
LOW MIXING HEIGHTS, AND THE SLOW PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT MOVING  
ACROSS THE REGION. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE  
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
RAINFALL WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIGHT, WITH AMOUNTS  
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH. OTHERWISE, THE APALACHICOLA  
RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN WILL REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD DUE TO UPSTREAM  
DAM RELEASES.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 43 65 54 71 40 / 10 10 50 40 0  
PANAMA CITY 45 64 58 68 44 / 20 30 80 40 0  
DOTHAN 40 57 51 63 38 / 20 30 80 40 0  
ALBANY 39 59 51 66 39 / 10 20 70 50 0  
VALDOSTA 41 63 53 71 41 / 10 10 40 40 10  
CROSS CITY 45 68 55 74 43 / 10 0 20 20 10  
APALACHICOLA 47 63 58 69 44 / 10 10 70 40 0  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...CAMP  
SHORT TERM...CAMP  
LONG TERM...SKEEN  
AVIATION...BUNKER  
MARINE...CAMP  
FIRE WEATHER...BUNKER  
HYDROLOGY...CAMP  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab FL Page
The Nexlab GA Page
The Nexlab AL Page Main Text Page