620
FXUS62 KTAE 240107
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
907 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
- DANGEROUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST
ALONG THE EMERALD COAST THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH HIGH SURF THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. IT IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF ON HIGH RISK DAYS. PLEASE HEED THE
BEACH FLAGS AND ADVICE FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
- HAZARDOUS HEAT RETURNS OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS WITH A MEDIUM
(40 TO 60%) CHANCE OF NEEDING HEAT ADVISORIES (HEAT INDICES AT
OR ABOVE 108 DEGREES) AND A LOW (LESS THAN 25%) CHANCE OF
NEEDING EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS (HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 113
DEGREES).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
NO UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE INTO THE REST OF
THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. A FEW REMNANTS OF
THESE SHOWERS COULD DRIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. DANGEROUS HEAT WILL BE OF INCREASING CONCERN
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DAYTIME HIGHS
JUMP INTO THE UPPER 90S WITH ISOLATED LOW 100S. WHEN COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HEAT INDICIES COULD BECOME
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS. THERE'S AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR US TO SEE
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MET (FEEL-LIKE TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 108
DEGREES), WITH A SMALL CHANCE TO SEE EXTREME HEAT CONDITIONS MET
(FEEL-LIKE TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 113 DEGREES). OVERNIGHT LOWS WON'T FEEL
MUCH COOLER EITHER, AS LOWS CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE FLINT AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS, POSSIBLY AFFECTING DHN AND ECP AND WILL
CONTINUE THE TEMPO 5SM MENTION FROM 10-14Z. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT THEN ESTABLISH FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE ECP AS THE
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVE FURTHER INLAND; THE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE PASSAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, LEADING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL TURN UP THE HEAT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN GEORGIA DISTRICTS, BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE SEA BREEZE
DRIVEN SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
GENERALLY, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED EACH AFTERNOON WITH
AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED HIGH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY DOWNPOURS. THERE
ARE NO RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 97 76 96 / 0 20 10 30
PANAMA CITY 76 93 78 93 / 0 0 0 10
DOTHAN 73 95 76 95 / 0 0 10 30
ALBANY 75 96 76 95 / 0 10 10 60
VALDOSTA 75 97 76 96 / 10 10 10 30
CROSS CITY 75 96 76 96 / 20 20 20 30
APALACHICOLA 76 91 78 92 / 0 10 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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