304  
FXUS62 KTAE 230114  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
814 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2019  
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL  
KEEP NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST BUT CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARM AND  
MOIST AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS. LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY FORMING AND  
MOVING ONSHORE FOR AREAS WEST OF APALACHICOLA. BASED ON A  
PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND GUIDANCE HAVING A SLIGHTLY BETTER  
HANDLE ON THE FOG TONIGHT, WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG  
ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE AND THE NEARSHORE  
WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL STILL TAKE A  
FEW HOURS TO REACH 1/4 TO 1/2 OF A MILE BUT ANYONE DRIVING IN THE  
MORNING SHOULD LEAVE EXTRA TRAVEL TIME. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS  
ADVISORY WILL GET EXPANDED AS WE SEE HOW THE NIGHT EVOLVES. THE  
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WERE ACROSS THE REGION HAVE KEPT  
THE FOG/STRATUS AT BAY BUT THEY ARE DISSIPATING WHICH COULD  
INCREASE THE FOG COVERAGE MORE THAN FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL  
DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [613 PM EST]
 
 
   
SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]
 
 
WHILE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO BURN  
OFF SATURDAY MORNING, NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY  
ONCE AGAIN AS THE SUN BREAKS THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH  
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN MOST AREAS.  
 
CHANGES ARE AFOOT BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO  
WEAKEN AND THE LONG ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT FINALLY MAKES A PUSH  
TOWARDS THE COAST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF  
THE FRONT BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE  
REASONABLE (AROUND 40 KNOTS), INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED (MUCAPE  
>500 J/KG) AND ON A DOWNWARD TREND WITH TIME, AND UPPER LEVEL  
SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING OUT RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST. SO WHILE A  
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY SUNDAY  
MORNING (MAINLY WEST OF THE RIVER), THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS  
RATHER LOW.  
 
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT DURING  
THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE LOWER TO  
MID 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.  
 
   
LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]
 
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY, WITH MUCH COOLER  
TEMPERATURES ON TAP. EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. BY LATE  
TUESDAY, THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM  
FRONT, BRINGING WITH IT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY WEDNESDAY.  
THERE IS LESS AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE BEYOND WEDNESDAY, BUT  
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN,  
WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.  
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY]  
 
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST WITH CIGS AND VIS TONIGHT WITH CIGS NOT  
FALLING THIS EVENING AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST. WILL BACK OFF THE  
MVFR CIGS A FEW MORE HOURS, ESPECIALLY AT ECP. ECP SHOULD STILL  
FALL TO AROUND 1/2SM, POSSIBLY 1/4SM WITH OTHER SITES FALLING TO  
AROUND 1SM. AMENDMENTS WILL BE LIKELY. CIGS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN  
FALL TO 200-500FT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL START TO  
SCATTER OUT BUT IT'S UNCERTAIN IF WE'LL HAVE ANY VFR CONDITIONS  
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT INCREASE TO 10-12KTS  
OUT OF THE SOUTH, POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTS TO 20KTS, BY THE AFTERNOON.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AND DENSE FOG  
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. GENERALLY LIGHT  
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD  
FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND  
THE FRONT, LIKELY REACHING SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS  
SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ASIDE FROM POSSIBLE HIGH DISPERSIONS ON SATURDAY, THERE ARE NO  
OTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
LOCAL RIVER LEVELS ARE STEADY OR FALLING AND MOSTLY BELOW ACTION  
STAGE. FORECAST RAIN TOTALS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ARE 1/2 INCH OR  
LESS.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 65 84 66 77 46 / 0 10 30 50 10  
PANAMA CITY 66 76 65 72 49 / 0 10 60 40 10  
DOTHAN 66 82 63 71 43 / 0 20 70 30 0  
ALBANY 64 82 65 72 44 / 10 10 40 50 0  
VALDOSTA 65 83 66 77 46 / 0 10 10 50 10  
CROSS CITY 64 85 66 80 50 / 0 0 10 30 10  
APALACHICOLA 65 75 65 72 49 / 0 0 30 40 0  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR  
CENTRAL WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-  
HOLMES-INLAND BAY-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND GULF-NORTH WALTON-  
SOUTH WALTON-WASHINGTON.  
 
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING  
FOR COASTAL BAY-SOUTH WALTON.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR  
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO  
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM  
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL  
WATERS FROM MEXICO BEACH TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT 20 NM-  
COASTAL WATERS FROM MEXICO BEACH TO OKALOOSA WALTON COUNTY  
LINE FL OUT 20 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...LN  
SHORT TERM...CAMP  
LONG TERM...CAMP  
AVIATION...LN  
MARINE...CAMP  
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY  
HYDROLOGY...CAMP  
 
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