902  
FXUS62 KTAE 120526  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
126 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2022  
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY]  
 
MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD  
DESPITE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
AREA. GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER IS THIS MORNING ALONG THE  
COAST, SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [950 PM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH FRIDAY]
 
 
THE 00Z TAE BALLOON SOUNDING AND WEATHER RADARS INDICATE  
UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15-30 KNOTS IN THE  
2,000-4,000 FOOT LAYER. THIS KIND OF WIND FLOW MIXED WITH  
SUMMERTIME MOISTNESS AND INSTABILITY IS A RECIPE FOR GUSTY  
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. FOR NOW, THE AIR MASS OVER  
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT WORKED OVER FROM  
CONVECTION EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE 00Z SOUNDING ALSO  
OBSERVED A VERY MOIST 1.99-INCH PW VALUES. LOOKING NORTH, ACTIVITY  
ALONG AND NORTH OF A CUTHBERT TO TIFTON LINE WILL FADE IN THE  
NEXT FEW HOURS. IT IS AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A LARGER AREA OF  
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.  
 
DOWN ALONG THE COAST, GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY INCREASES CONVECTION  
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE 85+ DEGREE GULF WATERS.  
THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL READILY SLOP IT INTO  
COASTAL COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT. WHERE CONVECTION MANAGES TO TRAIN  
OR GET WELL-FOCUSED, A QUICK 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THIS  
WOULD MAINLY BE A POSSIBILITY BETWEEN I-10 AND THE COAST.  
 
AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS,  
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WILL ALREADY HAVE A HEAD START AND COULD BE  
SPORTY. THERE HAS CERTAINLY BEEN THAT HISTORY OVER THE LAST COUPLE  
DAYS, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL BACKGROUND WINDS  
SETTLE DOWN EARLY THIS WEEKEND.  
 
   
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM[FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY]
 
 
BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, DRY AIR FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SE  
ALABAMA AND SW GEORGIA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A RATHER POTENT  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST INTO THE MID-  
ATLANTIC STATES AND THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS NORTHWEST  
FLOW ALOFT ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION STARTING FRIDAY  
NIGHT, A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY START ACROSS  
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GEORGIA ON SATURDAY AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO  
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BY SUNDAY. THIS IS PARTIALLY IN  
RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AS WELL THAT IS EXPECTED TO  
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE LARGEST REASON FOR A  
DROP IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE THE DRASTIC DROP  
IN PWAT VALUES AREAWIDE, WITH VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES DROPPING TO  
AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY. THE STALLED FRONT ALONG THE  
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND ON SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS  
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL  
TOTALS APPROACHING AN INCH LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION.  
 
BEYOND SATURDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS  
FORECAST TO BECOME SOMEWHAT QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,  
WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST  
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THE QUASI-  
STATIONARY NATURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LOOKS TO BE THE  
RESULT OF SEVERAL CYCLONIC WAVE BREAKING EPISODES ACROSS THE  
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.  
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY OR AT LEAST NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL  
LEVELS FOR POPS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT  
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY STREAMER PUSHES EQUATORWARD  
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES, WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS  
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS OUR PWATS  
ALSO IMPROVE.  
 
OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S  
AREAWIDE, WITH LOW 70S FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY  
NIGHT, AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA ACROSS  
CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND AS A WEAK FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH  
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THAT WEAK FRONT MAY FINALLY DIP AS FAR SOUTH  
AS THE NORTHERN GULF LATE SUNDAY, THEN PERSISTING AS A WEAK  
STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEXT WEEK.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.  
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY, REDUCING AFTERNOON  
RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL  
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THUS, NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED  
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IS OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE WPC. THIS IS ALL THANKS FOR DEEP  
TROPICAL MOISTURE (PWATS >= 2 INCHES) ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED  
WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AREAWIDE. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL  
TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES, ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS IS EXPECTED,  
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE HIGHER  
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED OVER SMALL AREAS, AND  
DEPEND GREATLY ON WHERE TRAINING STORMS OR BACK BUILDING STORMS  
CAN DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES  
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND COASTAL ZONES.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR (WHILE FOLLOWING ALL LOCAL, STATE, AND CDC GUIDELINES) BY  
CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 86 71 89 71 89 / 80 30 70 30 30  
PANAMA CITY 85 74 87 74 88 / 70 40 70 40 40  
DOTHAN 86 71 88 69 89 / 80 30 60 10 20  
ALBANY 86 71 89 69 90 / 80 30 50 10 20  
VALDOSTA 87 71 88 69 90 / 70 30 70 20 30  
CROSS CITY 88 73 91 72 90 / 60 40 70 50 50  
APALACHICOLA 85 75 86 75 87 / 70 40 70 50 50  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS  
MORNING FOR COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH  
WALTON.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...HANER  
SHORT TERM...BUNKER  
LONG TERM...BUNKER  
AVIATION...MERRIFIELD  
MARINE...HANER  
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY  
HYDROLOGY...BUNKER  
 
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