904
FXUS62 KTAE 281825
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
225 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
CIRRUS FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS TEMPERED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BIG BEND SO FAR TODAY, BUT STILL MAY SEE A
BIT OF ACTIVITY DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. OTHERWISE, THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL START OUT RATHER
TRANQUIL. BY LATE TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST, LIKELY WITH SOME ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MOVING
INTO THE PANHANDLE AND SE ALABAMA BY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
HELP TO GENERATE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS ON THURSDAY.
WITH A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MID-LEVEL PULSES, THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
FLOW MAY HELP TO ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS WELL, WITH A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
THE SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRIGHT-LINE WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE STORMINESS
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
A NOTICEABLE DROP IN HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
SET UP A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEEKEND WITH MORNING LOWS GETTING
WELL DOWN INTO THE 60S. A GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR THE
EASTERN TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY KVLD AND KTLH. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, DEVELOPING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARE
FORECAST TO REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS AS THEY VEER TO THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL RETURN TO LIGHT ONSHORE FOR SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
THROUGH FRIDAY, THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AS A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSE
THE REGION. OTHERWISE, THE AIR MASS WILL BE SEASONABLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE. A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AS IS COMMON BEHIND EARLY SUMMER
COLD FRONTS, THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY COOLING OF DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES, BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY DRIER THIS
WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
WPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) ON FRIDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE RAINFALL RATES SUFFICIENT FOR
FLASH FLOODING. MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST WITH LOW
FLOW CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ON SOME AREA RIVERS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. SPOTTERS SHOULD SAFELY REPORT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND/OR DAMAGE BY CALLING THE
OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 72 90 72 89 / 10 70 30 90
PANAMA CITY 75 87 75 86 / 30 60 50 80
DOTHAN 72 87 70 85 / 30 80 40 90
ALBANY 71 89 69 86 / 20 70 30 90
VALDOSTA 72 91 70 89 / 10 60 20 80
CROSS CITY 71 92 71 88 / 10 40 20 80
APALACHICOLA 77 86 75 85 / 20 50 30 70
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM....WOOL
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
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