020  
FXUS62 KTAE 280556  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
1256 AM EST MON NOV 28 2022  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 858 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2022  
 
TEMPS WERE NUDGED DOWN A LITTLE AS TEMPS ARE COOLING A LITTLE  
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER, TEMP DECREASES ARE EXPECTED TO  
SLOW DOWN AS SOME LIGHT MOISTURE RETURN OCCURS OVERNIGHT  
STABILIZING DEW POINTS, AND AS A RESULT, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
(THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2022  
 
THE FRONT IS NOW CLEARING THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST AND LOWER  
SUWANNEE VALLEY, WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW FALLING THROUGH THE 60S.  
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS DRIER, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A  
SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN LOW TEMPS TONIGHT INTO THE 40S OVER INLAND  
AREAS. HOWEVER, THE AIR MASS IS SOURCED FROM OFF TO OUR MILDER  
WEST INSTEAD OF THE COLDER NORTH, SO AFTERNOON TEMPS TOMORROW WILL  
REBOUND RIGHT BACK INTO THE 70S.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE  
NORTHEAST GULF LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP AN  
INITIALLY WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT  
OVER THE PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA WIREGRASS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES  
EAST. THE LATE- ARRIVING INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD  
SUPPORT PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE ROUGHLY ALONG THE FLORA-BAMA  
STATE LINE.  
 
A VERY PLEASANT MONDAY IS IN STORE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, AND DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WILL BE  
IDEAL FOR MANY FOLKS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2022  
 
DEEP LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FOR THE SHORT TERM BRINGING IN A  
DRY AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH, THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ANOTHER UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL  
BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE SE US LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.  
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S FOR  
OUR AL AND GA COUNTIES, AND WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S FOR OUR FL  
COUNTIES. POPS CHANCES TO BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT IN OUR  
WESTERN COUNTIES WITH ABOUT A 4 0% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS WEST OF A DOTHAN/PANAMA CITY LINE AT THE  
END OF THIS TERM.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2022  
 
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE AT THE START OF THIS TERM. AN UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BRING DOWN A COLD  
FRONT ACROSS THE SE US TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS AGREE  
THAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP  
AND AFFECT THE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY  
INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SET UP FOR THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE  
IN A HIGH SHEAR / LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT SO, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR  
SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS  
IT EVOLVES. PWAT VALUES ARE ALSO ELEVATED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM  
WHICH COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES, SO FLASH FLOODING IN  
AREAS OF LOW DRAINAGE COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN WEDNESDAY. THE  
STORMS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY AND WE CAN EXPECT  
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,  
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
DUE TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,  
THE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY AROUND 20-25 MPH DURING THE DAY  
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, WE CAN EXPECT A  
QUICK SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY. WINDS WILL  
BECOME LIGHTER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND  
 
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY ARE ABOUT 90% FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY/PANAMA  
CITY LINE, AND RANGING FROM 50-70% FOR THE BIG BEND REGION. POPS  
DROP TO NEAR ZERO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TERM.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CONSTANT FOR MOST OF THE LONG  
TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S, EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
THOSE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S AND LOW 70S RESPECTIVELY.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST NIGHTS, AND IN THE  
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THIS TAF CYCLE FROM THE 0Z ISSUANCE WAS  
INTRODUCING WESTERLY LLWS OF 35-40 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS INTO THE  
MORNING. THIS DECISION IS SUPPORTED BY MIDNIGHT SFC OBS SHOWING  
LGT WINDS AND LOCAL VWPS HIGHLIGHTING STRONGER WINDS 500-2000 FT  
ABOVE THE GROUND. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS MAINLY PREVAIL THE NEXT 24  
HRS, W/A LOW CHANCE OF DHN/ECP SEEING PATCHY FOG OR MIST AROUND  
SUNRISE. WEST TO NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS ARE FCST THIS  
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIKELY GOING CALM AFTER SUNSET.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2022  
 
A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF STRONG WESTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER  
THE NORTHEAST GULF TODAY BEHIND AN EARLIER FRONT, WHICH WARRANTS  
CAUTIONARY HEADLINES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. A HIGH  
PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF TONIGHT  
AND MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE HIGH MOVES EAST, SOUTHEAST BREEZES  
WILL DEVELOP AND FRESHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, IN ADVANCE OF  
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THAT FRONT, STRONG  
NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2022  
 
A MODESTLY DRIER AIR MASS MOVED IN THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND AN  
EARLIER FRONT. IT WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH A  
MOISTER AIR MASS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD  
FRONT IS EXPECTED AROUND WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRECEDED ON WEDNESDAY  
BY THE NEXT ROUND OF WETTING RAIN, THEN FOLLOWED ON THURSDAY BY AN  
EVEN DRIER AIR MASS.  
 
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY  
MORNINGS, MAINLY OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA  
DISTRICTS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2022  
 
WE HAD SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN SE AL  
THIS MORNING. OVERALL, WE GOT ABOUT 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES OF RAIN,  
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF COFFEE CO, AL WHICH RECEIVED NEARLY  
3 INCHES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS  
BEFORE OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME  
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS BUT, FLOODING IS NOT  
EXPECTED WITH THE FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A  
HALF-INCH FOR THE BIG BEND AND UP TO 1 INCH FOR AREAS WEST.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 52 77 61 76 / 0 0 10 80  
PANAMA CITY 56 75 64 75 / 0 10 30 90  
DOTHAN 49 73 59 72 / 0 10 40 100  
ALBANY 47 73 59 73 / 0 0 20 90  
VALDOSTA 49 77 59 78 / 0 0 10 70  
CROSS CITY 52 79 61 79 / 0 0 0 50  
APALACHICOLA 59 72 65 75 / 0 10 20 80  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR  
FLZ108-112-114-115.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...HANER  
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY  
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY  
AVIATION...IG3  
MARINE...MONTGOMERY  
FIRE WEATHER...HANER  
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY  
 
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