329
FXUS62 KTAE 020131
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
931 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 931 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IS
FOG THANKS TO EFFICIENT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PUMPING MOISTURE ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL GUIDANCE
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRE-DAWN HRS AROUND THE APALACHICOLA NAT'L
FOREST AND SOUTHERN AL/WESTERN FL PANHANDLE BEFORE SPREADING
NORTHWARD TOWARDS SUNRISE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S READINGS. THESE VALUES ARE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.
FOR TOMORROW, A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG DOWN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST TO THE OH/TN VALLEY AND PROVIDE SOME FORCING
FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR NW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM LARGE-SCALE
LIFT AND THE SEABREEZE. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES (~15-40%) ARE
ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE WIREGRASS
INTO I-75. INLAND TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S, ALSO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME LOCATIONS APPROACH 90 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
A SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND.
PLACED UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MERIDIONALLY-ORIENTED
JET STREAK AND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK,
UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, NEEDLESS TO SAY,
THERE IS AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. MLCAPE GENERALLY IN THE 300-800
J/KG RANGE THIS WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
THE FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING SUFFICIENT VENTILATION FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE. THE PROXIMITY TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO PROVIDE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR WITH AN 850MB WIND FIELD
AROUND 20-35 KTS. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, LEADING TO A RISK OF HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TORNADO THREAT, FOR NOW IT'S
A LOW, NON-ZERO THREAT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE/SE
ALABAMA AND SW GEORGIA. THE SPC CURRENTLY HAS THESE AREAS UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY, RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION, LEADING TO GENERALLY BENIGN
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT LIMITED IN SPATIAL EXTENT DUE TO LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG DEVELOPING FOR
THE FL PANHANDLE/BIG BEND AND SE ALABAMA. THIS WILL AFFECT THE
DHN, ECP, AND TLH TERMINALS. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. AFTER THE FOG LIFTS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHICH MAY IMPACT THE DHN, ABY, AND VLD TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
A RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM HIGH PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA WILL
EXPAND WESTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF, THEN REMAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A TURN TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST BREEZES IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, BUT THE NORTHERLIES WILL BE INTERRUPTED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS BY THE NEARSHORE SEABREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
POCKETS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
THAT HAS TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH AND MIXING HEIGHTS
EXCEEDING 7K FT IN SOME PLACES. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10.
MINRH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES FOR PERIOD AS WE ARE ALSO
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND TO NORTHERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
GENERALLY AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO FLOODING
CONCERNS. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN DOWNPOURS,
WHICH MAY LEADS TO LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 62 88 63 86 / 0 20 0 30
PANAMA CITY 67 83 69 81 / 0 10 10 50
DOTHAN 63 87 63 81 / 0 30 10 60
ALBANY 62 90 63 86 / 10 30 10 50
VALDOSTA 62 90 65 88 / 0 40 0 30
CROSS CITY 61 87 63 86 / 0 10 0 20
APALACHICOLA 67 80 69 80 / 0 0 0 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ735.
NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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