076  
FXUS62 KTAE 161044  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
644 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2018  
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]
 
 
FOG IS WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO IFR  
AND LIFR AT TLH, DHN, AND POSSIBLY ECP. FOG WILL DISSIPATE MID  
MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.  
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS  
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [350 AM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]
 
 
A SURFACE FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN GA, CENTRAL AL, AND  
SOUTHERN MS AND LA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND NO SIGNIFICANT  
CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN MORE OR LESS STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY. ALONG/AHEAD OF  
THE FRONT THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AIDED BY A FAIR  
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE IN THE AFTERNOON) FOR  
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST  
COVERAGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR THE APALACHICOLA RIVER/AL-GA  
STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY,  
PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE  
UPPER 90S.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]
 
 
A MID-UPPER LEVEL +PV ANOMALY WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES  
TONIGHT, AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, AND  
FINALLY PUSHING THE STALLED FRONT FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE  
FRONT WILL FINALLY REACH OUR LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY, ONLY TO  
STALL OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WEAK  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN MORE OR LESS STATIONARY THROUGH  
THURSDAY. LOW-END (20-30%) POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT, BUT LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS  
ARE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO THE FRONT, PEAKING IN THE  
80S TO LOW 90S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THURSDAY.  
WEDNESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW  
70S, BUT THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE MUCH COOLER, WITH TEMPERATURES  
RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S (NORTH OF A LINE FROM MARIANNA, FL TO  
FITZGERALD, GA) TO AROUND 70 (IN THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND).  
 
   
LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]
 
 
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL MOVE OFF  
THE EASTERN SEABOARD, LEAVING THE STATIONARY FRONT STALLED ACROSS  
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT, A MID-UPPER LEVEL  
+PV ANOMALY WILL DIG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, CREATING AN AMPLIFIED  
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AGAIN, AND PUSHING THROUGH A  
SECOND, STRONGER COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND. POPS RISE TO 30-50%  
SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND COLD FRONT AND THEN A  
NOTICEABLY COLDER, DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO PLACE EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWS IN THE  
50S TO LOW 60S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS  
TODAY, KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH  
TONIGHT. A FRONT CURRENTLY STALLED OVER CENTRAL AL AND NORTHERN GA  
WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN BEGIN TO  
STALL. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP DISPERSION INDICES ON THE LOWER SIDE  
TODAY AND TOMORROW AND THEY MAY NOT RISE ABOVE 20 WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF N FL. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
THE CHIPOLA RIVER AT ALTHA HAS FALLEN OUT OF FLOOD, BUT IS  
EXPECTED TO HAVE A SECOND RISE TO MODERATE FLOOD SO THE WARNING  
REMAINS.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 90 71 89 66 83 / 30 10 30 10 10  
PANAMA CITY 88 72 87 65 84 / 20 10 30 10 10  
DOTHAN 88 69 83 59 79 / 20 20 20 10 10  
ALBANY 90 70 85 61 76 / 20 20 10 10 10  
VALDOSTA 92 71 90 66 81 / 20 20 30 10 10  
CROSS CITY 91 72 91 71 86 / 10 10 20 20 20  
APALACHICOLA 86 73 86 68 84 / 10 10 30 10 10  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...NGUYEN  
SHORT TERM...NGUYEN  
LONG TERM...NGUYEN  
AVIATION...MCD  
MARINE...NGUYEN  
FIRE WEATHER...NGUYEN  
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN  
 
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