833  
FXUS62 KTAE 160044  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
844 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2019  
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND WE JUST TOUCHED UP  
THE TEMPS/DEW POINTS. WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE HIGH RIP  
CURRENT RISK AS IT WAS SET TO EXPIRE AT 11PM ET. OTHERWISE, DRY  
CONDITIONS OVER LAND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS  
IN THE LOWER 70S.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [726 PM EDT]
 
 
   
SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]
 
 
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL FILTER  
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH, AIDED BY NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE  
PERIPHERY OF CURRENT TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO. THIS WILL KEEP  
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH DEWPOINTS  
LIKELY MIXING OUT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS WILL HELP KEEP HEAT  
INDICIES WELL OUT OF THE DANGER ZONE. DRIER AIR WILL YIELD LARGE  
TEMPERATURE SWINGS, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70  
DEGREES.  
 
   
LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION'S WEATHER THROUGH  
AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE (GFS,  
ECMWF, AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES) REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN  
A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN SEA-BOARD DURING THE  
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW AS  
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND HUMBERTO AS  
IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE U.S. OTHERWISE, LITTLE IN THE WAY OF  
EXPECTANT WEATHER. A CONTINUATION OF MID TO UPPER 90S HIGHS CAN BE  
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH  
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY, USHERING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS.  
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S  
CAN BE EXPECTED.  
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY]  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE  
LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS, GIVING WAY TO CALMER CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF  
OF THIS WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AT  
THE SURFACE WITH TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 10-12MPH OUT OF THE NORTH-  
NORTHEAST. OTHER THAN HIGH DISPERSIONS, THERE ARE NO OTHER FIRE  
WEATHER CONCERNS.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS AS THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO  
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. ALL RIVERS REMAIN BELOW ACTION  
STAGE AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 74 96 70 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 0  
PANAMA CITY 75 93 74 95 76 / 0 10 0 0 10  
DOTHAN 71 95 69 98 71 / 0 0 0 0 0  
ALBANY 72 94 70 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 0  
VALDOSTA 72 93 70 96 71 / 0 0 0 0 0  
CROSS CITY 72 94 72 96 73 / 0 10 0 0 0  
APALACHICOLA 76 91 74 93 76 / 10 10 0 0 10  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...LN  
SHORT TERM...PULLIN  
LONG TERM...PULLIN  
AVIATION...LN  
MARINE...PULLIN  
FIRE WEATHER...LN  
HYDROLOGY...PULLIN  
 
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