245
FXUS62 KTAE 062336
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
736 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 100 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
- UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HEAT INDICES REACHING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON.
- MARINE AND BEACH HAZARDS INCLUDE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM
THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO MEXICO BEACH TONIGHT AND A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE FRANKLIN, GULF, AND WALTON COUNTY
BEACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
MOIST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH PWATS AROUND
1.8 INCHES, AS WELL AS MODEST FORCING/INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT A LOCALIZED
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 30-40 MPH. MAINLY DRY TONIGHT W/PATCHY
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MOSTLY IN SOUTHWEST GA. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND 9 AM ET TUESDAY. RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN ON
TUESDAY WITH A DRYING TREND AS WELL AS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS. HIGHS AROUND 90 AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70 WILL
YIELD HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. MEANWHILE, A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
FRANKLIN, GULF, AND WALTON COUNTY BEACHES.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
RIDGING CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. HIGHS AROUND 90 AND
DEW POINTS AROUND 70 WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S AGAIN. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
INTRODUCE THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH
ONCE AGAIN MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. NIGHTS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH LOWS AROUND 70.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HIGHS COOL INTO
THE 70S ON FRIDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE INTO THE 80S
THIS WEEKEND. BY THE WEEKEND, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S, WHICH REPRESENTS THE DRY AIR MASS THAT WILL BE
IN PLACE. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO RETURN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
A BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THIS EVENING. AS SUCH, HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR SOME RAIN AND LOWER VISIBILITY FOR KDHN THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A LIGHT
TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS. ANOTHER STRATUS DECK IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS LIFT BY MID-MORNING
TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZE CONTINUING,
EXCEPT AT KECP WHERE A BIT OF A SEABREEZE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
STRONG EASTERLY BREEZES AND ROUGH SEAS WILL RETURN TONIGHT WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THE OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER TO MEXICO BEACH. THEREAFTER, MORE MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES
BY INTO THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS MAY RETURN BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EAST TO NORTHEAST
TRANSPORT WINDS RELAX INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE MIXING
HEIGHTS INCREASE. THUS, GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
DROUGHT CONTINUES AND NO FLASH/RIVERINE FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 70 89 69 90 / 10 10 0 10
PANAMA CITY 71 88 72 89 / 20 10 0 10
DOTHAN 68 88 69 88 / 10 10 0 10
ALBANY 68 89 68 89 / 10 10 0 10
VALDOSTA 69 89 67 90 / 10 20 0 10
CROSS CITY 71 90 68 90 / 10 30 0 10
APALACHICOLA 74 84 73 84 / 20 10 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
FLZ108-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT /6 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
GMZ752-755-772-775.
NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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