808  
FXUS62 KTAE 250054  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
854 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, NO MAJOR CHANGES AT  
THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS NEAR TERM SECTION BELOW FOR MORE  
DETAILS.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [821 PM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH FRIDAY]
 
 
AS THE REMNANTS OF BETA MOVE TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, A NARROW  
WARM SECTOR WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE PANHANDLE/SOUTHEAST  
ALABAMA/EXTREME SW GEORGIA. IN THIS REGION THERE IS A MAXIMUM OF  
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR THAT ALIGNS WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  
WHILE LAPSE-RATES AREN'T IMPRESSIVE AT ALL, SOME SUPERCELL  
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONALLY, VWP DATA FROM EOX  
CLEARLY SHOW THE VEERED FLOW WITH HEIGHT AND INDICATE THE POTENTIAL  
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS THREAT AREA  
REMAINS RATHER SMALL AS EVX VWP ISN'T AS IMPRESSIVE DUE TO THE MORE  
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE WARM/COASTAL FRONT. NONETHELESS, FOLKS IN  
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND NEAR THE CHATTAHOOCHEE/APALACHICOLA BASINS IN  
FLORIDA SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  
 
ALL ROBUST CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS EVENING, WITH  
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING PRIMARILY ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY. IT MAY BE THE CASE THAT LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 2 AM) SHOWERS  
COULD RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS A BOUNDARY FROM THE FL PENINSULA  
REACHES THE FRONT AND ENHANCES CONVERGENCE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO  
GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE BIG BEND TOMORROW, WITH  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF  
IT ONCE AGAIN.  
 
LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 70S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF  
THE WARM-SECTOR OF BETA'S REMNANTS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE  
MIDDLE 80S ON FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]
 
 
MOST OF BETA'S REMNANTS WILL PULL AWAY FURTHER INTO THE CAROLINAS,  
WITH A LINGERING WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY DRAPED OVER THE  
EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT, ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE  
POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CWA ON FRI NIGHT AND  
EASTERN BIG BEND/I-75 CORRIDOR SAT AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, EXPECT  
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW  
DEVELOPS OVER AK/LA/TX AND TRACKS EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE SHOULD  
BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK BY SUN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE  
QUITE WARM (MID/UPPER 80S), WHILE NORTH-SOUTH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE  
FROM UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]
 
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW APPROACHES OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA  
ON SUN AND HELPS USHER IN GULF MOISTURE. THIS MOIST ADVECTION,  
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AS  
THIS WILL BE A TRANSIENT FEATURE THAT GETS STRUNG OUT BY AN  
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE PLAINS. A COLD  
FRONT DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY MON AND  
SWINGS DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES WITH THE AID OF THE  
TROUGH. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE/THERMAL BOUNDARY. THE  
CONVECTION MAY EVEN ORGANIZE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR MODE WHICH COULD  
HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE MON/TUES  
TIMEFRAME, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THAT. FURTHERMORE, THE  
GFS AND ECMF HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL, WITH  
THE GFS YIELDING A FASTER SOLUTION. NEVERTHELESS, IT APPEARS THE  
FIRST SIGNIFICANT FRONT OF THE FALL SEASON IS UPON US AS A MUCH  
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM MID-  
WEEK, ONWARD.  
 
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD SEES SOME WARM, WET WEATHER,  
FOLLOWED BY A DRY, COOL PATTERN IN THE SECOND HALF. FOR SUN-MON,  
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S, WITH LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. FOR TUES-THURS, HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE  
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S (WILL FEEL LIKE 70S THANKS TO LOWER HUMIDITY),  
WHILE LOWS GET INTO THE 50S AND 60S!  
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY]  
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE  
REGION TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW, CAUSING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO  
DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT  
THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW, WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED DURING  
THE RAIN.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES  
MON INTO TUES. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND  
15 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER  
FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAUTIONARY OR BORDERLINE ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY  
BE MET BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
SCATTERED CONVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH FRI, WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES  
GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON  
SAT BEFORE RAIN RETURNS ON SUN. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS  
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
CHOCTAWHATCHEE AND CHIPOLA RIVERS REMAIN IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.  
HOWEVER, AREA RIVERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF  
THE LOWER APALACHICOLA AREA RIVERS, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED SAT  
BEFORE DRYING OUT AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY  
NEXT WEEK BUT FORECAST RAIN TOTALS SHOULD BE LOW. THE FIVE DAY  
RAINFALL FORECAST TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. HOWEVER,  
ISOLATED AMOUNTS ON ANY GIVEN DAY WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND  
SLOW STORM MOTIONS COULD YIELD COULD BE HIGHER.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR (WHILE FOLLOWING ALL LOCAL, STATE, AND CDC GUIDELINES) BY  
CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 74 86 70 89 70 / 40 50 0 20 0  
PANAMA CITY 76 83 72 85 72 / 50 30 0 10 0  
DOTHAN 71 83 67 85 67 / 60 30 0 10 0  
ALBANY 71 86 69 86 68 / 60 50 10 10 0  
VALDOSTA 72 87 71 88 70 / 10 50 10 20 0  
CROSS CITY 73 89 72 89 71 / 10 30 10 20 0  
APALACHICOLA 77 84 73 85 72 / 50 30 0 10 0  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-  
COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...OLIVER  
NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN  
SHORT TERM...IG3  
LONG TERM...IG3  
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN/HARRIGAN  
MARINE...IG3  
FIRE WEATHER...IG3  
HYDROLOGY...BARRY/IG3  
 
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