659
FXUS62 KTAE 130627
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
127 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
- GRADUAL WARMUP AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. HIGHS REACH THE LOW 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA FRIDAY WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES, COUPLED WITH THE
ONGOING DROUGHT.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. IN BETWEEN, A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE OF LITTLE
FANFARE OTHER THAN TO BRING A QUICK SHOT OF DRY AIR TO AREAS NORTH
OF I-10. THE FRONT WASHES OUT SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING AND POSITIONING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONAL TODAY AND FRIDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING
SATURDAY.
ANOTHER DRY FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. YOU WOULDN'T KNOW IT, OTHER THAN A BRIEF PICKUP IN WINDS
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
AFTER THIS FRONT HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, LONGER RANGE MODELS HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH CONSISTENCY SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FORECAST
REMAINS DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO
RESOLVE THE UPPER PATTERN AND AN EVENTUAL STRONGER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MODELS WITH EACH RUN HAVE BEEN PUSHING THIS PASSAGE
FURTHER OUT IN TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND 10Z NEAR DHN AND ECP WITH
CONFIDENCE HIGHEST AT DHN. MVFR VSBYS ARE FORECAST FOR DHN, WITH NO
RESTRICTIONS AT ECP. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT THE OTHER TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN
GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS FEATURING NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
THROUGH SATURDAY THEN CLOCKING TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BEGINNING
SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET AND DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT
WINDS AND GOOD DISPERSIONS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. ON FRIDAY, A DRY AND WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL PUSH IN A A ROUND OF DRIER AIR AND
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 24-28% ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THIS AREA
BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND CLOCKING TO THE NORTHEAST. A GRADUAL
MOISTENING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WASHES
OUT AND FRESH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK THROUGH THE GULF COAST.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OR WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 47 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 74 52 76 51 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 74 45 75 43 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 74 42 75 41 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 74 43 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 75 45 77 44 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 72 54 72 53 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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