630  
FXUS62 KTAE 101121  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
621 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 422 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2025  
 
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST  
TODAY, CROSSING THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION THIS EVENING. IT WILL  
BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST, BEACH HAZARDS, AND RAIN.  
ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT  
AND MONDAY, A LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF,  
SPREADING A COLD RAIN NORTH INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED  
BY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A DRY  
REINFORCING COLD FRONT NEXT WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 422 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2025  
 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COASTLINE WILL  
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF  
COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW  
CURRENTLY ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI GULF  
COAST. RADAR SHOWS SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA  
EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR SERVICE AREA. HOWEVER, THE AIR  
HAS BEEN TOO DRY FOR ANY OF THIS TO REACH THE SURFACE LOCALLY. I  
BELIEVE OUR WINDOW FOR SEEING ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS SHRINKING.  
OUR DEW POINTS HAVE OVERPERFORMED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS  
IN THE MID-20S TO LOWER 30S AND AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-30S TO  
LOWER 40S. WHILE SOME WET-BULB EFFECT CAN STILL OCCUR, COOLING AND  
MOISTENING THE LOWER COLUMN OF AIR VIA EVAPORATION, WET-BULB  
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. STILL, I  
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THERE'S A FEW ICE PELLETS NORTH OF A LINE  
FROM ANDALUSIA, AL TO DAWSON, GA EARLY THIS MORNING, IF  
PRECIPITATION CAN REACH THE GROUND TO BEGIN WITH. BUT THE CHANCES  
FOR THIS VERY LOW, AND NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.  
 
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST  
TO EAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. HOWEVER, WITH LITTLE  
TO NO INSTABILITY, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LOW TO NEAR  
ZERO. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
TIGHTENS AND THE 925MB JET INCREASES TO ABOUT 35-40 KT. HOWEVER, THE  
MIXING DOWN POTENTIAL FOR THESE WINDS WILL BE LIMITED BY HOW FAR  
INLAND THE WARM FRONT MOVES. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER  
WINDS IS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS FROM JEFFERSON COUNTY EASTWARD,  
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT LATER TODAY. GUSTS OF 35-45  
MPH ARE LIKELY, AND THERE'S A HIGH (>70%) CHANCE OF 40 MPH GUSTS  
WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY AREA. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME INLAND  
EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY IF OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT IT, THOUGH CHANCES  
OF 40+ MPH GUSTS INLAND ACCORDING TO THE HREF ARE AROUND 30-40%.  
 
HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MAYBE THE WARM FRONT GETS HUNG UP  
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF DOTHAN TO ALBANY TO FITZGERALD. AS  
PRECIP FALLS INTO DRIER AIR OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GEORGIA, THIS  
MAY HELP REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR VIA EVAPORATIVE COOLING, HALTING  
NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS HAS AN IMPACT ON  
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. THUS, LEANING ON HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE,  
HAVE A GRADIENT OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN OUR NORTHERNMOST  
COUNTIES TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH.  
 
THE WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS,  
SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE LATE  
TONIGHT BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH LOWS IN THE MID-30S IN THE WIREGRASS  
TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 422 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2025  
 
IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT, COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL  
BE UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE QUITE A BIT OF  
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS HANGING AROUND THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY, WITH  
ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY FOR A SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MORNING, UNTIL THE MOISTURE BECOMES  
MORE SHALLOW. CLEARING IS FINALLY EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY,  
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH, FAILING TO SURPASS THE  
40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. SOME OF THE NEWEST MOS GUIDANCE IS  
EVEN COOLER THAN THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST, SO THERE IS ROOM TO  
NUDGE HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE MORE ON SATURDAY.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON  
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY  
SUNSET ON SATURDAY EVENING, SO THE WEAKENING WIND FIELDS WILL BE  
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR  
ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES.  
 
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REACH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON, AND OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY. WE  
WILL STILL HAVE A COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE, BUT SUNNY SKIES AND AN  
EASING OF COLD ADVECTION WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH TO BOOST HIGHS INTO  
THE 50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 422 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2025  
 
A LARGE AND FAST UPPER JET STREAK WILL EXTEND FROM OKLAHOMA UP THE  
LENGTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IN THE  
LIFT-FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION, A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAVE  
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK  
EAST ACROSS THE DISTANT GULF WATERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,  
NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD AIR DOME. IN THE MID-LEVEL WARM  
ADVECTION PATTERN NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW, A LARGE RAIN SHIELD  
WILL DEVELOP AND EXTEND WELL INLAND FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  
SINCE WE WILL STILL BE IN THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE LOW, THIS  
WILL BE A COLD RAIN, CONCURRENT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S  
TO MID 40S. HOWEVER, IT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE TOO WARM TO CONSIDER  
WINTRY PRECIP.  
 
ONCE THAT LOW PRESSURE WAVE TO THE SOUTH EXITS, ANOTHER COLD  
SURFACE HIGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE  
TRI-STATE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  
 
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER DRY REINFORCING COLD  
FRONT AROUND WEDNESDAY, KEEPING OUR PROLONGED SPELL OF BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE  
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC SHOWS ODDS CONTINUING TO FAVOR BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 7-DAY FORECAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 614 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2025  
 
LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA CONTINUE NEAR AND NORTH OF DHN THIS  
MORNING. AN UPPER-LEVEL OVERCAST DECK IS SPREADING ACROSS THE  
AREA, WITH VFR CIGS PREVAILING. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE  
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND STRENGTHEN TO SUSTAINED 10-20 KT  
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CIGS WILL LOWER THIS AFTERNOON TO MVFR AS  
RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AS LOW PRESSURE  
MOVES CLOSER, WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR. AS THE LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA,  
WINDS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KT  
OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR TO LOW-END MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT  
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY TAPERING FROM NW TO SE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 422 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2025  
 
A 1005 MB LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST.  
IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW, AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS LATE THURSDAY  
EVENING REVEALED A LARGE AREA OF GALE-FORCE SOUTHERLIES TO ITS  
EAST WHILE IT WAS OVER THE TEXAS WATERS, AND SURFACE OBS NOW SHOW  
GALES CONTINUING IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SO WE WILL AT LEAST SEE FREQUENT GALE-FORCE  
GUSTS PASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WATERS TODAY AND THIS  
EVENING, AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL  
GO DOWNHILL QUICKLY THROUGH SUNRISE.  
 
FROM CWF SYNOPSIS...A 1005 MB LOW CENTER WILL TRACK EAST ALONG  
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY, PASSING ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND  
COAST THIS EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW, A NORTHWARD MOVING  
WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT A FRESHENING OF SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH  
BREEZES, WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW  
PUSHES EAST LATE THIS EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE  
WATERS. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES  
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND CLOCK AROUND AS  
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY NIGHT.  
STRONG BREEZES ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,  
WHILE THE NEXT LOW MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 422 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2025  
 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN OF WETTING RAIN TO THE  
AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL  
INCREASE AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WITH EAST TO  
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH, HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST.  
OTHERWISE, FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED.  
 
WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH FAIR DISPERSIONS AREA-WIDE. THE  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.  
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE  
SUNDAY TO THE AREA. LOW DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED ALL DAY SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 422 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2025  
 
NO RAIN-RELATED FRESHWATER FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7  
DAYS.  
 
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE  
THIS EVENING FOR SHORELINES AT THE TOP END OF APALACHEE BAY.  
STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE  
NORTHEAST GULF, WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS CONTINUING WELL  
INTO THIS EVENING. THE ONSHORE PUSH OF WATER WILL REACH ITS PEAK  
ALONG THE WAKULLA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY COASTS AT THE SAME TIME  
THAT THERE IS A NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE LATE THIS EVENING.  
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, GFS-BASED STORM SURGE GUIDANCE FOR SAINT  
MARKS HAS SHOWN PEAK TIDAL ANOMALIES RANGING FROM 2.4 TO 3.2  
FEET. WHEN SUPERIMPOSED ON A TIDE TABLE PREDICTION OF -0.3 FEET  
MHHW, THIS ADDS UP TO EXCEED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CRITERIA. THAT  
CRITERIA AVERAGES ABOUT 2 FEET MHHW AT MANY COASTAL SITES. HIGH  
TIDE THIS EVENING ALONG THE WAKULLA COAST WILL COME BETWEEN 1030  
AND 1100 PM EST.  
 
FOR NOW, WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE WAKULLA  
AND JEFFERSON COUNTY COASTS, WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.  
DEPENDING ON HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS LATER THIS MORNING, THERE IS ROOM  
TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY ALL THE WAY OVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER, OR  
PERHAPS WEST INTO FRANKLIN COUNTY. OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA,  
THE NUMBERS DO NOT ADD UP WELL ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY WITH  
THIS MUCH LEAD TIME. NONETHELESS, IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS  
WE MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 59 42 49 31 / 30 100 20 0  
PANAMA CITY 62 42 50 34 / 80 90 10 0  
DOTHAN 52 36 45 27 / 90 90 10 0  
ALBANY 51 38 47 26 / 70 100 10 0  
VALDOSTA 60 44 51 29 / 30 90 20 0  
CROSS CITY 64 50 58 33 / 10 90 20 0  
APALACHICOLA 62 45 51 36 / 40 90 20 0  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ108-112-  
114-115.  
 
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST  
/MIDNIGHT CST/ SATURDAY FOR FLZ108-112-114-115.  
 
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 9  
AM EST /8 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR FLZ108-112-114.  
 
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY  
FOR FLZ115.  
 
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR  
FLZ118-127.  
 
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST  
SATURDAY FOR FLZ118-127.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR  
GMZ730-755-765-775.  
 
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ750-752-770-772.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...YOUNG  
SHORT TERM...HANER  
LONG TERM....HANER  
AVIATION...YOUNG  
MARINE...HANER  
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG  
HYDROLOGY...HANER  
 
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