181  
FXUS62 KTAE 050816  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
316 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2021  
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY. A  
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY OR  
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A GULF LOW. OVERNIGHT, A GULF LOW WILL MOVE WELL  
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH WE CAN  
EXPECT INCREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS  
WILL BE SOUTH OF I-10 IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGHS TODAY WILL  
BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S  
AND LOWER 50S.  
   
SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]
 
 
CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE  
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF, CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. RAIN SHOWERS  
WILL BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE, BUT IT'S  
LOOKING LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE BE OFFSHORE FOR  
NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXPECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE  
EXTREME SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND. EVEN IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG  
BEND, RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE  
ANY FLOODING ISSUES AS ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONLY  
APPEAR TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.  
 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH  
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AND ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. EXPECT  
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO SATURDAY  
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  
   
LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY,  
AND WITH DRY/CLEAR CONDITIONS, GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LOOK  
APPARENT. LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S.  
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH  
SIMILAR RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN  
PLACE.  
 
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, BEGINNING TUESDAY, THERE IS  
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE ON AN UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OFF THE US COAST IN THIS  
PATTERN, ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
WEEK ALONG WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE  
OF THE WEEK. THE LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AS THE STRENGTH OF  
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POTENTIALLY REACHES ITS PEAK. NO RAINFALL IS  
FORECAST, BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES CAN'T BE RULED OUT LATER  
IN THE WEEK AS MOISTURE WORKS IT'S WAY INTO THE REGION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY]  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE  
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE  
EASTERLY TODAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 1 TO 2 FEET THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. FOR THE UPCOMING  
WEEKEND, EXPECT ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS, POTENTIALLY TO ADVISORY  
LEVEL, AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AS  
WELL. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY AS THE LOW  
MOVES AWAY, BUT EXPECT MODERATE/ROUGH SEAS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH  
FOR NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S  
AND NEAR 30. WITH LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10 MPH EXPECTED TODAY, RED FLAG  
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND  
TOMORROW MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
RAINFALL WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY  
NOTICEABLE IMPACTS WITH THE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION  
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH WITH ISOLATED  
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND AROUND 1 TO  
2 INCHES.  
 
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, RELEASES FROM WOODRUFF WERE APPROACHING  
55KCFS. THIS IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO KEEP BLOUNTSTOWN ABOVE  
MINOR FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INCOMING FLOWS TO THE  
WOODRUFF POOL ARE UNLIKELY TO NECESSITATE ANY SIGNIFICANT  
INCREASES IN RELEASES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 
THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER BASIN CONTINUES TO RISE, WITH A CREST NEARING  
AT THE GAUGE NEAR COOLIDGE. BECAUSE THE RAINFALL WAS AT THE TOP  
OF THE BASIN, IT IS TAKING TIME FOR THE DOWNSTREAM SITES TO  
INCREASE. WITH COOLIDGE NEARLY CRESTED, WE SHOULD SEE A CREST AT  
THOMASVILLE VERY NEAR THE 15 FT FLOOD STAGE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
DOWNSTREAM MINOR FLOODING TO CONCORD IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE  
WEEKEND, BUT NOT AT ANY OF THE OTHER POINTS DOWNSTREAM.  
 
THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER CONTINUES TO RISE STEADILY AT VALDOSTA WITH  
MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED THERE AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. RISES  
ARE ALSO STEADY ON THE LITTLE RIVER, AND WHEN LOOKING AT THE TIMING  
AND FLOWS ON THE WAY, A PERIOD OF MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT THE  
US-84 GAUGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
FINALLY, ONGOING FLOODING IN THE MIDDLE SUWANNEE WILL CONTINUE TO  
SLOWLY DECREASE WITH BRANFORD AND ROCK BLUFF FORECAST TO FALL BELOW  
FLOOD STAGE LATE TODAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON, RESPECTIVELY.  
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM FLOODING AT WILCOX AND MANATEE SPRINGS IS  
UNLIKELY, THOUGH THE RIVER AT THESE TWO LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VERY  
NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR (WHILE FOLLOWING ALL LOCAL, STATE, AND CDC GUIDELINES) BY  
CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 74 50 63 40 64 / 0 30 40 10 0  
PANAMA CITY 71 53 64 45 65 / 0 30 40 0 0  
DOTHAN 70 48 62 38 62 / 0 20 10 0 0  
ALBANY 69 47 62 38 62 / 0 20 10 0 0  
VALDOSTA 73 49 62 38 63 / 0 20 30 10 0  
CROSS CITY 77 52 62 40 66 / 0 30 50 20 0  
APALACHICOLA 68 54 63 45 64 / 0 30 50 10 0  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...MCD  
SHORT TERM...DOBBS  
LONG TERM...DOBBS  
AVIATION...MCD  
MARINE...DOBBS  
FIRE WEATHER...MCD  
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY/DOBBS  
 
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