971
FXUS62 KTBW 120654
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
254 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
RIDGING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING US INTO
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME. WE WILL ALSO SEE PW HOVERING AROUND THE
2 INCH MARK. THIS WILL FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS ON THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY.
BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER FLORIDA GIVING US VERY LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT AND BRINGING US INTO A MORE NEUTRAL FLOW REGIME. THIS
WILL FAVOR THE BETTER STORM CHANCES IN THE INTERIOR. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS FLOW REGIME WILL BE THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZE FLOODING. THIS REGIME LOOKS TO STAY
IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
WE WILL SEE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A
SEABREEZE COMING INTO THE AREA FOR OUT COASTAL SITES IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY WILL BE IN
THE INTERIOR AND SW FL WHERE TEMPO LINES WHERE ADDED TO REFLECT
THAT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME BREEZIER CONDITIONS WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THESE
WINDS WILL CALM DOWN TO 5 TO 10 ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL COME OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING US LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS ONLY AROUND 5 KNOTS. THE BEST CHANCE
TO SEE STORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT IN THE GULF ALONG THE LAND BREEZE
AND IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE COAST AS STORMS ARE PUSHED OFF
THE LAND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION AND HUMIDITY WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER AT A
MINIMUM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 78 93 81 / 60 30 70 20
FMY 93 76 94 78 / 80 40 60 30
GIF 94 77 95 78 / 70 30 60 10
SRQ 92 77 92 78 / 60 30 60 20
BKV 93 74 93 75 / 60 30 70 10
SPG 91 81 90 81 / 60 30 60 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 7
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...SHIVELEY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...SHIVELEY
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