535  
FXUS62 KTBW 190723  
AFDTBW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL  
323 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SPRAWL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
US AND GULF OF MEXICO TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WHILE THE  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC RIDGES ACROSS  
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WEAK  
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW, GIVING WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS WITH AN  
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE EACH DAY. THE STACKED RIDGING WILL KEEP WARM  
AND SOMEWHAT STABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE, BUT DEEP MOISTURE  
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD  
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON, PROPAGATING  
ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING  
HOURS.  
 
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN US DURING THE FIRST  
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE  
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN WASHING OUT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA ON  
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL  
LEAD TO LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN  
SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENING AND SLIDING EAST,  
THE LIMITED SUBSIDENCE FROM EARLIER IN THE PERIOD WILL BE REDUCED,  
ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH  
THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING,  
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNRISE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP  
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING,  
PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS STORMS  
APPROACH INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF FLORIDA WILL KEEP  
SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY SEA  
BREEZES TURNING WINDS ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS  
AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN HEADLINE CRITERIA, BUT  
DAILY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY DANGEROUS BOATING  
CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TPA 91 77 91 77 / 30 10 30 20  
FMY 92 76 92 76 / 40 20 50 30  
GIF 94 75 94 75 / 40 20 40 20  
SRQ 91 76 92 76 / 30 10 30 20  
BKV 92 73 93 74 / 30 10 40 20  
SPG 91 78 92 76 / 20 10 30 20  
 

 
   
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GULF WATERS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
FLEMING  
 
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