159
FXUS62 KTBW 121803
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
103 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
- SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
THE FIRST FRONT OF THE WEEK HAS MOVED THROUGH, LEAVING COOLER, DRIER
AIR BEHIND IT. IF YOU ENJOY THE COLD TEMPERATURES, YOU'RE IN LUCK
THIS WEEK. TOMORROW WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A DECENT SHOT AT RAIN FOR MOST AREAS. BEHIND
THAT SECOND FRONT, WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING
SHOWS WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS FAR SOUTH AS
DESOTO COUNTY WITH COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH JUST BARELY ABOVE
FREEZING. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE UPPER 50S NORTH OF I4 AND LOW 60S
TO THE SOUTH. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL WARM SLIGHTLY, BUT LOWS
WILL STILL BE IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT THE REGION. BEFORE THINGS CAN
WARM UP, A THIRD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN, COLD,
DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS THIRD FRONT. STARTING NEXT
WEEK OFF STILL IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR THE LOWS. OVERALL THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
PARADE OF FRONTS, EACH ONE USHERING IN COLD, DRY CONDITIONS FOR A
FEW DAYS. AS THE COLDEST DAYS DRAW CLOSER, COLD WEATHER PRODUCT
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED
THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR CEILINGS. A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING TEMPORARY LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THE REST OF TODAY AND
TOMORROW. HOWEVER, QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVES OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PICK UP AGAIN TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
THOUGH COOLER, DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN FOLLOWING YSTERDAY'S COLD
FRONT, THE RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
BREEZING CONDITIONS. EVEN DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY
FOLLOWING THIS FRONT WITH RH VALUES DIPPING BELOW CRITICAL.
HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 54 71 59 68 / 10 10 30 40
FMY 60 79 62 75 / 10 20 30 30
GIF 55 73 58 71 / 10 10 40 30
SRQ 55 73 60 71 / 10 20 30 30
BKV 44 71 50 68 / 10 10 30 40
SPG 59 71 62 69 / 10 10 30 40
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
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