658  
FXUS62 KTBW 190559  
AFDTBW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL  
159 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
   
AVIATION
 
 
PREVAILING VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT  
12 TO 15 HOURS WITH VCSH AND SHRA. RAIN STARTS TO DIMINISH  
AFTER 00Z WITH PREVAILING MVFR WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS. WINDS  
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NE WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 751 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2019/  
 
UPDATE...  
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.FOR  
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ONE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE  
MID-ATLANTIC STATES SLIPS OFFSHORE TUE WHILE A SECOND S/W TROUGH  
TRACKS FROM THE NM/TX BORDER TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY TUE  
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES  
TO THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS TUE. A STALLED FRONT  
REACHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ATLANTIC - JUST SOUTH OF  
THE FLORIDA KEYS - AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES ALONG IT.  
 
THE FEATURES NOTED ABOVE WILL PROVIDE A MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST AND  
WEST FLOW ALOFT AND A COOLISH NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...ROBUST  
AT TIMES. OVERCAST CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AS LARGE AREAS OF  
SHOWERS AND RAIN ON THE GULF...ALREADY MOVING ONSHORE WILL STREAM  
ACROSS TONIGHT AND MUCH OF TUE. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY  
BE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE MOST MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT BUT ON THE COOL SIDE TUE THANKS TO  
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL BUT WILL  
MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM TO BETTER REFLECT ONGOING  
TRENDS.  
 
MARINE...  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER  
TRACKING EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL  
MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT AND INTO TUE WITH CAUTION  
TO ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. LARGE AREAS OF  
SHOWERS/RAIN WILL STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. THE GRADIENT  
BEGINS TO RELAX WED AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE END OF  
THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TPA 67 56 71 55 / 50 20 0 0  
FMY 65 60 74 58 / 90 50 10 0  
GIF 66 57 71 53 / 70 30 10 0  
SRQ 67 58 72 57 / 80 30 0 0  
BKV 68 54 71 49 / 30 10 0 0  
SPG 67 59 71 59 / 60 30 0 0  
 

 
   
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR  
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS  
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL  
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-  
TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO  
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO  
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...27/SHIVELEY  
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...74/WYNN  
 
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