810
FXUS62 KTBW 120023
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
723 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS SWFL THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE SRN/SE U.S. BUILDS INTO THE STATE IN ITS WAKE.
COOLER DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA ON BREEZY
TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST, AND MID 40S TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH DESPITE LINGERING
MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS
OVER THE FL STRAITS, WITH FEELS LIKE TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
COOLER. OVERALL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ON MONDAY OVER THE AREA
LIKELY TEMPERING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE 60S FOR NATURE COAST AND
WCFL LOCATIONS, WHILE SWFL WARMS INTO THE 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVERAGE AND WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS TREK OVER THE
STATE. COLD, DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH AREAS
NORTH OF I4 WAKING UP TO THE UPPER 30S LOW 40S, WHILE SOUTH OF I4
IT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S FOR THE LOWS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
IN THE 60S- 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO REBOUND TUESDAY, BUT
ANOTHER FRONT HAS ITS EYES SET ON FLORIDA AND WILL SWOOP IN
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT, BRINGING UPPER 20S (NORTH) TO UPPER 30S
(SOUTH). THIS TIME, THE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT EVEN HAVE A CHANCE
TO WARM, BECAUSE A THIRD COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IN OTHER WORDS, THIS WEEK WILL BE COLD WITH
A CHANCE OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER S/SWFL, HOWEVER EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER CLOUDS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE OVER TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE BOUNDARY
STALLS OVER THE FL STRAITS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SRN/SE
U.S. WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
8-12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING A BIT TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS LATE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON WHILE VEERING TO THE N/NE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 136 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
A FRONT IMPACT THE SEAS TODAY INTO TOMORROW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
BRIEFLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, ONCE AGAIN USHERING IN HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
WE WILL BE SEEING TWO SEPARATE FRONTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. RHS BEHIND TODAY'S FRONT WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. OUR SECOND FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING US SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RH'S BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND CRITICAL LEVELS. HOWEVER RAINFALL THE DAY BEFORE AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 49 68 54 70 / 0 0 10 10
FMY 57 76 59 78 / 0 0 10 10
GIF 50 69 54 72 / 0 0 10 10
SRQ 51 70 56 72 / 0 0 10 10
BKV 40 68 45 70 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 54 69 58 71 / 0 0 10 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DAVIS
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