926  
FXUS62 KTBW 161751  
AFDTBW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL  
151 PM EDT MON SEP 16 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS REGION,  
EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, HURRICANE HUMBERTO  
CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE GEORGIA/CAROLINAS COAST, WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS OUT OF THE NORTH TO  
NORTHWEST AS HUMBERTO MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. VERY LITTLE SHOWER  
ACTIVITY OUT THERE TODAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD  
AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, WITH  
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF  
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, A RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR  
MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION, WITH DEW POINTS "FALLING" INTO THE  
60S AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES AS WELL. ALTHOUGH IT  
ISN'T MUCH, IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE OUTSIDE. RAIN  
CHANCES REMAIN LOW BUT THEN INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS  
MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL  
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THEN NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
DAYS WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE  
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS  
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION OVER THE  
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW THROUGH  
THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY, WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING  
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TPA 76 93 75 92 / 0 0 0 20  
FMY 76 92 74 93 / 0 0 0 30  
GIF 75 94 73 93 / 0 0 0 30  
SRQ 77 92 75 92 / 0 0 0 30  
BKV 73 94 72 93 / 0 0 0 30  
SPG 78 93 76 93 / 0 0 0 20  
 

 
   
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GULF WATERS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
05/CARLISLE AND 97/FLANNERY  
 
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