656
FXUS62 KTBW 091743
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
143 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINS OVER WESTERN PA WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGHING
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO EASTERN TX. WEAK RIDGING OVER FLORIDA
WILL FLATTEN OUT AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ON THE
SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS GA/AL/MS TO
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF LA. OVER FLORIDA, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS RIDGES WEST OVER FLORIDA THROUGH
THE DAY. THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS AMPLE MOISTURE WITH A PWAT
OF 1.51 INCHES, DEEP SW-W FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND COOL 500 MB
TEMPS AROUND -12C. THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE PATTERN WILL FAVOR AN
ONSHORE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO SET UP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED, WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS WELL FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF POLK AND
HIGHLANDS COUNTIES.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN TX CUTS OFF INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR LA/MS AND THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OVER MS/AL WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST
OF THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA ON SATURDAY
KEEPING THE STATE IN A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT. PWAT VALUES OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL BE AROUND 1.5 - 1.8 INCHES. SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE FAVORED ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR. SPC HAS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS WELL FOR PARTS OF
THE NATURE COAST INCLUDING LEVY COUNTY. NOT A LOT OF SYNOPTIC CHANGE
IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED WEATHER FEATURES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN AND A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. THE MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SHIFTS FARTHER
SOUTH ON SUNDAY TO THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND A SLIGHT RISK IS POSSIBLE
FOR PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST INCLUDING LEVY COUNTY.
MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING EASTWARD CLOSER TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL
BRING A MORE SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION
WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.8 - 2.0 INCHES. SOME AREAS COULD SEE
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS, WHICH COULD EQUATE
TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COVERS ALL THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A
SLIGHT RISK EXTENDS FROM THE NATURE COAST SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN
MANATEE COUNTY. THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST
ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE FRONT TO SHIFT EAST OF FLORIDA BY
TUESDAY EVENING. OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN TODAY AND TUESDAY
COULD BE AS HIGH AS 4-6 INCHES, AND SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
SOME AREAS, WHICH WILL BE SOME WELCOME RELIEF TO HARD HIT DROUGHT
AREAS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THIS MORE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SW WINDS
AROUND 8-12 KNOTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS, THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LIKELY ONLY
IMPACT LAL BETWEEN 20-03Z, SO WILL HOLD VCTS AT LAL DURING THAT
TIME. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
A PREDOMINANT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AROUND 10-15
KNOTS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN HAZARD EACH DAY WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BRING A VERY WET
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS WITH EVEN HIGHER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY EVENING
ALLOWING FOR CLEARING CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
A VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER FLORIDA TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MONDAY BEING THE
WETTEST DAY. NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 76 89 76 89 / 30 50 60 80
FMY 72 90 74 92 / 20 40 40 60
GIF 71 90 72 88 / 40 60 50 80
SRQ 73 88 74 89 / 20 50 60 80
BKV 68 90 69 89 / 30 60 60 90
SPG 76 86 76 87 / 20 50 60 80
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...CARLISLE
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