658
FXUS62 KTBW 190559
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
159 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019
AVIATION
PREVAILING VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
12 TO 15 HOURS WITH VCSH AND SHRA. RAIN STARTS TO DIMINISH
AFTER 00Z WITH PREVAILING MVFR WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NE WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 751 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2019/
UPDATE...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ONE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES SLIPS OFFSHORE TUE WHILE A SECOND S/W TROUGH
TRACKS FROM THE NM/TX BORDER TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY TUE
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
TO THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS TUE. A STALLED FRONT
REACHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ATLANTIC - JUST SOUTH OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS - AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES ALONG IT.
THE FEATURES NOTED ABOVE WILL PROVIDE A MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST AND
WEST FLOW ALOFT AND A COOLISH NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...ROBUST
AT TIMES. OVERCAST CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AS LARGE AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND RAIN ON THE GULF...ALREADY MOVING ONSHORE WILL STREAM
ACROSS TONIGHT AND MUCH OF TUE. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY
BE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE MOST MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT BUT ON THE COOL SIDE TUE THANKS TO
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL BUT WILL
MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM TO BETTER REFLECT ONGOING
TRENDS.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKING EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL
MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT AND INTO TUE WITH CAUTION
TO ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. LARGE AREAS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN WILL STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. THE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO RELAX WED AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 67 56 71 55 / 50 20 0 0
FMY 65 60 74 58 / 90 50 10 0
GIF 66 57 71 53 / 70 30 10 0
SRQ 67 58 72 57 / 80 30 0 0
BKV 68 54 71 49 / 30 10 0 0
SPG 67 59 71 59 / 60 30 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...27/SHIVELEY
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...74/WYNN
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