322  
FXUS62 KTBW 101257  
AFDTBW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL  
857 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2022  
   
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 854 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2022  
 
ISSUED AT 849 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2022  
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA TODAY THANKS TO THE SAHARA  
DUST LAYER OVER THE AIR. THIS WILL HELP TO REDUCE OUR TYPICAL  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY. WE WILL MAX OUT POPS TO  
AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NO MAJOR CHANCES  
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2022  
 
THE 500MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK AND BROAD UPPER-LEVEL  
DISTURBANCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS  
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION AT THE BASE OF THE FEATURE OF THE  
GULF STREAM AND LOOP CURRENT OFF THE FL WEST COAST. ANYONE WHO MAY  
BE GETTING AN EARLY START TO THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN SWFL MAY  
NOTICE SOME LIGHTNING IN THE DISTANCE IN RESPONSE. AN AREA OF  
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ABOUT 50NM FROM SHORE. THIS IS IN CONTRAST  
TO THE DRY AIR ADVECTING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FL  
PENINSULA. THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY, THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO  
ADVECT WESTWARD, AND IS LIKELY TO LIMIT DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS  
THE PENINSULA.  
 
WHILE PROBABILITIES ARE PRETTY LOW OVERALL, THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR  
ANY ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP IS ALONG THE FL WEST COAST WHERE THE  
EAST AND WEST BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY TO COLLIDE ONCE AGAIN TODAY -  
THANKS TO THE CONTINUED STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. ADDITIONAL  
FORCING AND MOISTURE POOLING MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE UPDRAFTS TO  
PUNCH THROUGH THE DRIER AIR, YIELDING A STORM OR TWO. IF THEY  
CONTINUE TO GROW IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, THEY WILL BE STORMS TO WATCH  
FOR DOWNBURSTS. HOWEVER, THAT PROBABILITY IS VERY LOW - AS ARE THE  
RAIN CHANCES FOR ANY ONE LOCATION.  
 
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN, ONE SHOULD EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES IN  
THE AFTERNOON. FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 100  
DEGREES. HOWEVER, THE LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD KEEP  
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE  
ANY CONCERNS FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.  
 
A SIMILAR STORY IS EXPECTED TO REPEAT ON THURSDAY BEFORE A MOISTURE  
REBOUND STARTS TO TAKE PLACE AS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA  
SINKS SOUTHWARD. AT THE SURFACE, THIS SHOULD YIELD A VERY LIGHT  
FLOW, ALLOWING BOTH SEA BREEZES TO EFFICIENTLY PROPAGATE INLAND.  
EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST, BEFORE THE BULK  
OF THE CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES OVER THE INTERIOR LATER IN THE DAY.  
 
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD, LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW IS  
LIKELY TO BECOME WESTERLY AS THE WEEKEND TURNS TO NEXT WEEK.  
WESTERLY FLOW FAVORS A SHIFT IN TIMING FOR CONVECTION, WITH COASTAL  
STORMS LIKELY ALONG THE FL WEST COAST EARLIER IN THE DAY AS THE WEST  
COAST SEA BREEZE QUICKLY PROPAGATES EASTWARD. EVENINGS SHOULD  
GENERALLY BE ON THE DRIER SIDE ACROSS ALONG THE WEST COAST, AND EVEN  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. IT'S NOT UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE  
PERIOD THAT THE FLOW ONCE AGAIN STARTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO THE  
EAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 854 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2022  
 
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LOW AND  
WILL DEVELOP A LITTLE LATER THEN TYPICAL. VCTS WILL BE SEEN AT ALL  
AIRPORTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS MAINLY IN THE EVENING. VFR  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SOUTH TO  
SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH A SEABREEZE FOR COASTAL SITES IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2022  
 
RIDGING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS  
WILL KEEP A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING  
BELOW 15 KNOTS. FOR THIS MORNING WE ARE SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS  
IN OUR OFF SHORE WATERS. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STICK AROUND  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER THAT WE WILL SEE  
SOME DRIER AIR PUSH OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK  
WHICH WILL LIMIT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES. BY THE WEEKEND MOISTURE WILL  
BE RETURNING WHICH WILL BRING BACK HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND  
STORMS IN THE GULF MAINLY IN THE EVENING HOURS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2022  
 
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS MINIMUM  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND WINDS  
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TPA 95 80 95 80 / 30 30 30 20  
FMY 95 78 95 77 / 20 30 30 10  
GIF 97 78 97 77 / 30 20 30 10  
SRQ 93 77 92 76 / 20 30 30 20  
BKV 95 74 94 73 / 30 30 40 20  
SPG 92 80 92 80 / 20 30 30 20  
 

 
 
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 7  
 
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 6  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES GO TO  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY  
 

 
   
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GULF WATERS...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY  
DECISION SUPPORT....NOAH  
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...NOAH  
 
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