853
FXUS62 KTBW 050845
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
345 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2021
DISCUSSION
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR
DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHTER NORTHEAST FLOW ALLOWING FOR AN AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DURING SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM AROUND
PUNTA GORDA TO SEBRING SOUTHWARD. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT CONTINUING TO RIDGE WEST
ACROSS THE REGION. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME LEADING TO BREEZY
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE OVERALL
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH BREEZY
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WE'LL SEE SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE SPREADING
WESTWARD UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LEADING TO SOME SCATTERED
TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS EACH DAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL MODERATING
TREND.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 14Z. AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE WILL SHIFT WINDS TO WEST TO NORTHWEST NEAR THE COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING BACK TO
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS DURING THIS EVENING.
MARINE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN GULF WATERS ON SATURDAY
BRINGING HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
RESULTING IN CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY
DURING EACH NIGHT WITH THE NOCTURNAL SURGE MOVING ACROSS THE
WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DIP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 MPH OR LESS SO NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY KEEPING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THEN DRIER AIR
RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 59 70 53 / 0 10 90 30
FMY 80 60 76 57 / 0 0 70 40
GIF 78 58 71 52 / 0 0 90 40
SRQ 79 59 72 55 / 0 0 90 40
BKV 78 52 68 46 / 0 20 80 30
SPG 76 62 69 56 / 0 10 90 40
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...SHIVELEY
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