753
FXUS62 KTBW 101907
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
207 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 202 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
- RECORD BREAKING COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING AND POSSIBLY SOME RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS ON TUESDAY.
- MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRINGING WITH IT RECORD
BREAKING COLD AIR. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE EITHER
STAYED STEADY OR ALREADY STARTED TO DROP THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
US WILL BE SEEING RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW MORNING
WITH THE NATURE COAST GETTING AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THE REST OF
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL BE DOWN INTO THE
30'S. ON TOP OF THAT WE WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING
DROPPING FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES TO THE MID 20'S TO MID 30'S. WE
HAVE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WHOLE CWA TOMORROW MORNING
DUE TO LOW WIND CHILL. WE COULD ALSO BE LOOKING AT BREAKING LOW
MAX TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE 50'S FOR A LOT OF US.
WE WILL SEE ONE MORE COLD MORNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND THE NATURE COAST STILL GETTING INTO THE 30'S. AFTER
THE COLD MORNING ON WEDNESDAY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN
AND THE REST OF OUR WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING
TREND. BY THE WEEKEND HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 80'S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 202 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND GUST UP TO 30. WINDS WILL SLOWLY START TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY. FOR THE REST OF OUR WORK WEEK
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 202 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS QUICKLY
DRIED US OUT. OUR MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE ON TUESDAY.
RHS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 20'S HOWEVER
WINDS WILL BE STARTING TO DROP DOWN. EVEN WITH THE WINDS DYING
DOWN WE WILL STILL SEE BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WE WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK BUT
WIND WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 66 39 60 44 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 73 42 61 45 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 67 37 58 41 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 69 40 61 44 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 62 31 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 65 43 59 50 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
COASTAL LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND LEVY.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR INLAND LEVY.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...PEARCE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...PEARCE
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