769
FXUS62 KTBW 011754
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
154 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT BRINGS IN MILDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ON SUNDAY.
- WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY, PRODUCING HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF FLORIDA
TODAY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA STARTING SATURDAY,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A MOIST (DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S) AND ROBUST WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME, WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE PENINSULA. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
LEAD TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
NATURE COAST REGION, A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR THE
TAMPA BAY AREA, AND A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FAR AS TIMING, THE EVOLUTION IS A BIT FASTER
COMPARED WITH THIS TIME YESTERDAY, WITH STORMS MOVING INTO LEVY
COUNTY EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN TAMPA BAY IN THE EVENING. WITH THIS,
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY LIMITED TO LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES
WITHIN A SMALL WINDOW AS THE FIRST STORMS START TO MOVE IN. THEN AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
RAIN FALLING APART AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND THEN SLOWS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY, THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COUPLED WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD WILL
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST MID TO LATE WEEK,
BRINGING SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MONDAY, THEN INCREASE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR TAF SITES,
HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LOW CIGS WILL GET. THEN, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING SOME PERIODIC GUSTY WINDS
AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS FOR AREA TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH ADVISORY OR EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE STARTING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, COMING TO AN END
TOMORROW NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
A DRY AIR MASS WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
PERCENTAGES DROPPING TO NEAR CRITICALLY LOW LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON,
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR. DESPITE THE DRY AIR, WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN, BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH DISPERSION INDICES ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 73 87 64 81 / 0 70 70 20
FMY 71 90 70 82 / 0 30 80 60
GIF 69 92 64 80 / 0 70 80 20
SRQ 70 86 64 82 / 0 70 80 30
BKV 65 90 57 82 / 0 70 60 10
SPG 77 87 69 82 / 0 70 70 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CARLISLE/DELERME
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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