985
FXUS62 KTBW 031823
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
223 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY.
- ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND MOVING
EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES RIDGES SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST U.S., ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF. THIS WILL KEEP A PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW OVER FLORIDA FOR
ONE MORE DAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.8-2.2
INCHES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR
AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING 100-105 DEGREES.
ON SATURDAY, WE ARE EXPECTING A SHIFT IN THE WIND FLOW TO A MORE
ONSHORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND RIDGES WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. THIS ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH CONTINUED ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
EARLIER IN THE DAY ALONG THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AND WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRAVERSE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH EARLY SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST TRAVERSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. NOT
A LOT OF CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
BY WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND A SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST ONSHORE SHORE WILL PREVAIL, BUT SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.7-2.0 INCHES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION.
THIS IS STILL ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT
MAY SLIGHTLY DECREASE CHANCES DOWN TO AROUND 30-50 PERCENT FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S CONTINUE WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING 100-105 DEGREES
EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALREADY FIRING UP ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
ARE IMPACTING SOME OF THE TERMINALS. CURRENTLY HAVE TEMPO TSRA WITH
MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 21Z FOR TPA/PIE/SRQ AND THROUGH
22Z FOR LAL/PGD/RSW/FMY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z, THEN CLEARING OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AFTER 14Z WITH SW
ONSHORE WIND FLOW. WILL COVER THIS WITH PROB30 AT ALL TERMINALS
BETWEEN BETWEEN 14-17Z ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. THE ONLY MARINE IMPACT EXPECTED WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS, WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 81 91 80 91 / 10 60 40 50
FMY 78 92 77 93 / 30 50 40 70
GIF 76 94 76 93 / 30 80 30 80
SRQ 79 92 79 92 / 30 60 50 50
BKV 74 94 74 93 / 10 60 30 40
SPG 80 91 80 91 / 20 60 40 50
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 1
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...CARLISLE
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