526
FXUS62 KTBW 242326
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
726 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2020
UPDATE
TONIGHTS SOUNDING WILL SHOW ANOTHER VERY DRY LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
INVERSION AT AROUND 850MB. THERE IS CLEARLY A DIFFERENT AIR MASS
TO OUR SOUTH AS SHOWERS HAVE PROGRESSED NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH OF FT
MYERS TO SARASOTA COUNTY IN THE LAST 4 HOURS. AFTER SUNSET THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE HOWEVER THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTH. NO ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT RUNNING
FORECAST.
AVIATION
I REMOVED VCSH FROM ALL AIRPORTS EXCEPT SRQ AS THE MOIST AIR IS
EITHER STILL SOUTH OR THE ATMOSPHERE IS DONE FOR THIS EVENING.
THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE BUT ARE MOVING
WEST AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT RSW OR FMY. TOMORROW SHOULD SEE PRETTY
GOOD TSRA COVERAGE. I ADDED VCTS TO ALL AIRPORTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 213 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2020/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD AS THE REMNANTS OF BETA MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE BRINGING A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE EVEN HIGHER
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SETS UP
OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY WASHING OUT OVER THE AREA MID-WEEK.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
BUT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR KSRQ SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TERMINALS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS EVENING, WITH
VICINITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS, ALONG WITH BRIEF
VISIBILITY AND/OR CEILING RESTRICTIONS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
MARINE...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SHIFT
TO ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AND SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
DIRECTION AND THEN INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO
RETURN, WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 76 89 76 89 / 20 40 20 40
FMY 76 88 76 89 / 50 60 30 50
GIF 75 89 75 91 / 20 70 10 60
SRQ 75 89 76 89 / 30 40 20 40
BKV 73 90 73 90 / 20 40 10 40
SPG 76 89 77 88 / 20 40 20 30
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...04/SOBIEN
UPPER AIR...14/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...14/MROCZKA
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