729
FXUS62 KTBW 291848
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
248 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A DISTURBANCE IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, WITH
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY.
ACROSS FLORIDA, THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE IS ERODING
AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. MOISTURE IS INCREASING AND
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING, DRIVING A THERMAL GRADIENT CAPABLE OF
FACILITATING SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. AS THE SEA BREEZE TAKES SHAPE,
THIS WILL CHECK OFF THE FINAL BOX NEEDED FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST IN
RESPONSE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, STAYING CLOSER TO
THE WEST COAST DUE THE STILL ROBUST EASTERLY BACKGROUND FLOW THAT
SHOULD PIN THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS RESIDES ACROSS SWFL WHERE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. ALREADY, CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN
THE KEYS AND PORTIONS OF FLORIDA BAY. THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY, AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DOING SO. WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES, THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THIS ENERGY WILL BE LOST AS
STORMS TRANSLATE FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO OBTAIN SUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR
LIGHTNING AS THE DAY WANES. AS SUCH, SHOWERS REMAIN MOST LIKELY
LATER TODAY OUTSIDE OF SWFL.
HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT, IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (THE DRIVER OF THE STORM
SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST). THIS WILL PROVIDE A
SLIGHT ASCENT ENHANCEMENT, AND FAVORS CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER,
COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED AS THE DIURNAL MINIMUM
APPROACHES.
ONCE DAYTIME HEATING KICKS BACK IN TOMORROW, CONVECTION WILL PICK
BACK UP. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZES, WHICH SHOULD MAKE
DECENT INWARD PROGRESS TOMORROW, COLLIDING SOMEWHERE OVER THE
INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE EXTRA BOOST FROM THE SHORTWAVE
AND OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS, THERE COULD BE
SOME MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF WHERE THESE
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR, LIKELY EAST OF I-75. WITH A MORE WSW FLOW
ALONG THE COAST, STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO DIRECTLY IMPACT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES TOMORROW EVENING ALONG THE WEST COAST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
AS THE WEEKEND TURNS INTO THE WORK WEEK, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
WILL REMAIN DYNAMIC ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS QUICKLY PROPAGATING FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME OF THIS
ENERGY COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS TO SNEAK INTO THE
NATURE COAST AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS ON MONDAY, AND SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE INTERIOR COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, AGAIN DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER, RIDGING
IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA,
LARGELY SHIELDING THE REGION FROM THE BRUNT OF THESE SYSTEMS.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE THE
HEAT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE CLIMBING INTO THE 90S
WITH THE RIDGE SOLIDIFYING A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HIGH, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. WHILE
MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS TO BE TOO SHALLOW FOR STORMS, IT WILL BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO FEEL VERY MUCH LIKE SUMMER AS THE WEEKEND
APPROACHES. THIS COULD AS A SHOCK TO SOME, PARTICULARLY THOSE
UNACCUSTOMED TO HEAT LIKE THIS. REMEMBER TO PRACTICE GOOD HEAT
SAFETY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR TODAY. AN AREA OF
CONVECTION IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS SWFL TERMINALS, AND
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO INITIATE AS BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING IN, SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT BEFORE WANING TOWARDS MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF COASTAL TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON, AN EASTERLY WIND
SURGE IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ONCE THE SEA BREEZE FADES AWAY.
THIS MAY ALLOW A SHORT PERIOD WHERE SEAS INCREASE. ADDITIONALLY, AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
BEFORE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS INLAND FOR DAYTIME HOURS. WEATHER
FOR THE WORK WEEK GENERALLY LOOKS QUIET ACROSS COASTAL WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
INCREASING MOISTURE FAVORS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS REMAINING A
POSSIBILITY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL. REGARDLESS OF STORMS,
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGH THIS WEEK, KEEPING RH VALUES WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
EXIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 70 84 70 85 / 50 50 30 10
FMY 69 86 69 87 / 60 50 20 10
GIF 67 83 68 88 / 50 60 30 20
SRQ 69 85 68 84 / 50 40 20 0
BKV 64 84 64 87 / 40 60 30 10
SPG 70 82 70 81 / 50 40 30 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLANNERY
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