535
FXUS62 KTBW 190723
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
323 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2019
DISCUSSION
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SPRAWL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
US AND GULF OF MEXICO TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC RIDGES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WEAK
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW, GIVING WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE EACH DAY. THE STACKED RIDGING WILL KEEP WARM
AND SOMEWHAT STABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE, BUT DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON, PROPAGATING
ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN US DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN WASHING OUT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENING AND SLIDING EAST,
THE LIMITED SUBSIDENCE FROM EARLIER IN THE PERIOD WILL BE REDUCED,
ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR.
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING,
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNRISE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING,
PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS STORMS
APPROACH INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF FLORIDA WILL KEEP
SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY SEA
BREEZES TURNING WINDS ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN HEADLINE CRITERIA, BUT
DAILY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY DANGEROUS BOATING
CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 77 91 77 / 30 10 30 20
FMY 92 76 92 76 / 40 20 50 30
GIF 94 75 94 75 / 40 20 40 20
SRQ 91 76 92 76 / 30 10 30 20
BKV 92 73 93 74 / 30 10 40 20
SPG 91 78 92 76 / 20 10 30 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLEMING
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