546
FXUS62 KTBW 171138
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
738 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- HIGH FIRE WEATHER DANGER IN NORTHERN AREAS ON TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVER KFMY AND KRSW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS, THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY FOR ALL SITES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, THEN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SOME THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY, BUT MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH, OR ABOUT 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TONIGHT SOME OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT THOUGH ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS WE'LL
SEE TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S HERE, ALONG WITH
SOME FROST POSSIBLE. FURTHER SOUTH, TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE
40S, EXCEPT REMAINING IN THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST.
ON WEDNESDAY WE'LL SEE THE MODERATING TREND GET UNDERWAY AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHEASTERLY. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THOUGH WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOWEVER REMAIN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
DURING THURSDAY, SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BRINGING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS, BUT NOT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND A CONTINUED MODERATING TREND.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WHILE
THE LOW TEMPERATURES DON'T GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING THANKS TO THE CONTINUED COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY NNW WINDS
AROUND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. AS SUCH, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES UNTIL 18Z. ADDITIONALLY, SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED, PARTICULARLY IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH WAVES 8-9 FT
AND NEARSHORE WATERS WATERS AROUND 5-6 FT.
BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES, TAMPA BAY, AND CHARLOTTE
HARBOR, WHERE THE SCA WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE SCA WILL
REMAIN EFFECT ELSEWHERE UNTIL 0Z. WAVES WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
WATERS AS WINDS DIMINISH TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE AND VEER MORE NE
BY WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE REGION, USHERING IN A SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIRMASS FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN WILL BE LOW RH VALUES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST AND INLAND WEST CENTRAL FL, WHERE AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE
PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 25-30% RANGE TODAY AND SLIGHTLY LOWER ON
WEDNESDAY. BREEZY NNW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS DURING THE WINDOW
OF MINIMUM RH. GOOD DISPERSION INDICES TODAY DUE TO DEEP MIXING
HEIGHTS AND BREEZY NORTH TRANSPORT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY MODERATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 61 44 71 51 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 66 48 72 54 / 10 10 10 10
GIF 63 44 71 50 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 63 45 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 61 33 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 63 50 71 56 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INLAND LEVY.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
AVIATION...CARLISLE
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