444
FXUS62 KTBW 202352
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
652 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON, CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THIS
EVENING. SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING, THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL COMPLETELY EXIT THE REGION TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE INTO THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40'S NORTH TO LOW 60'S SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60'S TO LOW
70'S, THEN SLOWLY MODERATING CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY NEXT MONDAY. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS WILL BE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40'S AND 50'S. SOME POCKETS OF
UPPER 30'S MAY BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS OVER THE
INTERIOR PARTS OF THE NATURE COAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
MVFR AND IFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA WITH
ONLY FMY AND RSW DEALING WITH THEM. THIS WILL LAST FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 4 OR 5 HOURS. AFTER THAT EVERYONE SHOULD HAVE VFR FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL START TO GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS OUT
OF THE NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND REMAIN FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 147 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF WATERS.
AREAS OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN CLEARING BY THIS
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT, WHICH HAS
WARRANTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINNING TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH PLEASANT WEATHER,
DECREASING WINDS AND ABATING SEAS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 147 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA, THEN CLEARING BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND PRODUCING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS, COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY. RH VALUES WILL HOVER BETWEEN 35-55
PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON, WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS BELOW 35 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERIOR NATURE COAST COUNTIES. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME HIGH DISPERSIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 58 68 54 70 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 62 73 52 73 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 55 68 48 69 / 10 0 0 0
SRQ 60 69 57 72 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 51 67 45 67 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 62 69 60 70 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR TAMPA BAY
WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...GIARRATANA
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...GIARRATANA
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