322
FXUS62 KTBW 101257
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
857 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2022
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 854 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2022
ISSUED AT 849 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2022
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA TODAY THANKS TO THE SAHARA
DUST LAYER OVER THE AIR. THIS WILL HELP TO REDUCE OUR TYPICAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY. WE WILL MAX OUT POPS TO
AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NO MAJOR CHANCES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2022
THE 500MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK AND BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION AT THE BASE OF THE FEATURE OF THE
GULF STREAM AND LOOP CURRENT OFF THE FL WEST COAST. ANYONE WHO MAY
BE GETTING AN EARLY START TO THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN SWFL MAY
NOTICE SOME LIGHTNING IN THE DISTANCE IN RESPONSE. AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ABOUT 50NM FROM SHORE. THIS IS IN CONTRAST
TO THE DRY AIR ADVECTING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FL
PENINSULA. THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY, THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WESTWARD, AND IS LIKELY TO LIMIT DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS
THE PENINSULA.
WHILE PROBABILITIES ARE PRETTY LOW OVERALL, THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ANY ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP IS ALONG THE FL WEST COAST WHERE THE
EAST AND WEST BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY TO COLLIDE ONCE AGAIN TODAY -
THANKS TO THE CONTINUED STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. ADDITIONAL
FORCING AND MOISTURE POOLING MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE UPDRAFTS TO
PUNCH THROUGH THE DRIER AIR, YIELDING A STORM OR TWO. IF THEY
CONTINUE TO GROW IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, THEY WILL BE STORMS TO WATCH
FOR DOWNBURSTS. HOWEVER, THAT PROBABILITY IS VERY LOW - AS ARE THE
RAIN CHANCES FOR ANY ONE LOCATION.
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN, ONE SHOULD EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE AFTERNOON. FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 100
DEGREES. HOWEVER, THE LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY CONCERNS FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.
A SIMILAR STORY IS EXPECTED TO REPEAT ON THURSDAY BEFORE A MOISTURE
REBOUND STARTS TO TAKE PLACE AS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
SINKS SOUTHWARD. AT THE SURFACE, THIS SHOULD YIELD A VERY LIGHT
FLOW, ALLOWING BOTH SEA BREEZES TO EFFICIENTLY PROPAGATE INLAND.
EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST, BEFORE THE BULK
OF THE CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES OVER THE INTERIOR LATER IN THE DAY.
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD, LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW IS
LIKELY TO BECOME WESTERLY AS THE WEEKEND TURNS TO NEXT WEEK.
WESTERLY FLOW FAVORS A SHIFT IN TIMING FOR CONVECTION, WITH COASTAL
STORMS LIKELY ALONG THE FL WEST COAST EARLIER IN THE DAY AS THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE QUICKLY PROPAGATES EASTWARD. EVENINGS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE DRIER SIDE ACROSS ALONG THE WEST COAST, AND EVEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. IT'S NOT UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD THAT THE FLOW ONCE AGAIN STARTS TO TRANSITION BACK TO THE
EAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 854 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2022
DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LOW AND
WILL DEVELOP A LITTLE LATER THEN TYPICAL. VCTS WILL BE SEEN AT ALL
AIRPORTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS MAINLY IN THE EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH A SEABREEZE FOR COASTAL SITES IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2022
RIDGING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL KEEP A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING
BELOW 15 KNOTS. FOR THIS MORNING WE ARE SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN OUR OFF SHORE WATERS. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME DRIER AIR PUSH OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
WHICH WILL LIMIT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES. BY THE WEEKEND MOISTURE WILL
BE RETURNING WHICH WILL BRING BACK HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE GULF MAINLY IN THE EVENING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2022
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND WINDS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 95 80 95 80 / 30 30 30 20
FMY 95 78 95 77 / 20 30 30 10
GIF 97 78 97 77 / 30 20 30 10
SRQ 93 77 92 76 / 20 30 30 20
BKV 95 74 94 73 / 30 30 40 20
SPG 92 80 92 80 / 20 30 30 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 7
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES GO TO
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT....NOAH
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...NOAH
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