817
FXUS62 KTBW 121224
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
824 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. AN U/L
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINS EVIDENT ON
W/V IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...ACROSS
THE GULF...AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW 2 TO 4 INCH BULLSEYE POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER THE INTERIOR. THIS IS DUE TO THE CONTINUED ONSHORE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WHICH FAVORS HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN PENINSULA. AN MCS WHICH FORMED OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF ON MONDAY HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS ITS PUSHED OFF
THE LOOP CURRENT AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY
COOLER EASTERN GULF. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF THIS REMNANT
COMPLEX TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE ONSHORE THE WEST CENTRAL COAST
OF FLORIDA AROUND SUNRISE WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS HAS BEEN DISSIPATING RATHER QUICKLY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AS THE U/L DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT, THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL SINK SOUTH DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO EXIT TO THE EAST.
ON WEDNESDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. REMNANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING SYSTEM WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR IN REGION OF MAX
HEATING AND L/L CONVERGENCE. NBM POPS APPEAR TO BE A BIT
OVERDONE.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AT THE COAST TO
THE LOWER 90S INLAND EACH DAY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RECOVER A BIT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF
TAMPA BAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 822 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
BIGGEST WEATHER CONCERN TODAY FOR OUR AIRPORTS WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE COAST IN THE THE
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO INLAND LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCES
WILL BE AWAY FROM THE COAST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW 10
KNOTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY, AND WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK. DRY AIR COMBINED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES MAY CREATE CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST AND INTERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 88 74 86 73 / 50 50 20 10
FMY 92 74 89 73 / 30 20 30 10
GIF 89 71 88 70 / 80 40 60 10
SRQ 90 73 87 72 / 30 30 30 0
BKV 88 66 87 66 / 70 50 30 10
SPG 91 75 87 75 / 40 40 20 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...PEARCE
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