236
FXUS62 KTBW 120655
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
255 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- THE RATHER WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
EACH DAY. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
- SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S AND THE HUMIDITY MAKING IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE 100
TO 105 DEGREES EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
OUR SATURDAY WILL LOOK VERY SIMILIAR TO FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW AND PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY EAST OF 75 WITH DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY RIDGING WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
STATE BRINGING LIGHT FLOW TO THE AREA. THIS REGIME RESULTS IN SLOW
MOVING STORMS WHERE OUTFLOWS ARE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT.
THIS REGIME ALSO BRINGS HIGHER CHANCES FOR LOCALIZE FLOODING AS
STORMS TEND TO "SIT" OVER AN AREA.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO APPROACH
THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. THIS WILL BRING OUR WINDS
EASTERLY AGAIN AND RESULT IN SHOWER ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE COAST IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
BY WEDNESDAY THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE BE GETTING CLOSER TO THE
STATE. OUT AHEAD OF IT WE WILL SEE SOME DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-4 WHERE PW COULD DROP BELOW 1.5. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AS SUSTAINED WINDS COULD REACH AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
CLOSE TO 30. MOISTURE WILL START TO RETURN ON THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE. WINDS WILL CALM DOWN
SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS. SHOWER
CHANCES NORTH OF I-4 WILL START TO RETURN.
BY FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF AS THE FLOW
SWITCHING SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL COME BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL LEVELS AS MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. THIS WILL BRING US
BACK US RIGHT BACK TO THE SAME CONDITIONS WE SAW YESTERDAY WITH
STORMS MAINLY EAST OF 75.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PW WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING SCATTED SHOWER
AND STORMS TO THE STATE. COASTAL SITE LIKE PIE AND SRQ WILL SEE
HIGHER CHANCES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE MOST OTHER SITES WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO OUR
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED STORMS CHANCES. AS WE HEAD INTO OUR TUESDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL IN THE ATLANTIC WILL START TO APPROACH THE STATE. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE WINDS OUT OF THE EAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS. AS THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE
WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE WHICH WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WE WILL
NOT HAVE ANY MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 78 89 78 / 40 20 50 10
FMY 91 77 90 76 / 60 30 70 20
GIF 93 75 92 75 / 60 30 60 20
SRQ 91 77 91 77 / 40 20 50 30
BKV 92 74 91 74 / 40 10 50 10
SPG 90 79 89 79 / 40 20 50 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 1
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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