160
FXUS62 KTBW 061739
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1239 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 623 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WORK BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
QUASI-ZONAL U/L PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BEGIN
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL
ROTATE OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
A RESULTING BROAD MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A BROAD
RIDGE OUT WEST.
AN U/L DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL ADVECT HIGH CLOUDINESS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY AND WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST, WHICH WILL ADVECT L/L MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND TEMPERATURES TO
RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE
THE RISK FOR FOG TO DEVELOP BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THE U/L PATTERN AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEEKEND, A STRONG AREA OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THROUGH THE
PLAINS STATES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MUCH COLDER DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY LIKELY HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S
NORTH...MID TO UPPER 60S CENTRAL...AND AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH. AS THE COLD AIR RIDES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF, A
LARGE AREA OF STRATO-CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND MAY ADVECT LOCALLY
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR
LIGHT SHOWER, PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S NORTH...UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CENTRAL...AND MID 40S
SOUTH. NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
POTENTIAL THAT TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS COULD BE A CATEGORY
COLDER IF THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SINKS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
ALLOWING WINDS TO COLLAPSE WHICH WOULD ENHANCE RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NORTH TO 70 SOUTH UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ON TAP TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S NORTH...LOWER TO MID 40S CENTRAL...AND THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 SOUTH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS TODAY AND FRIDAY...BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND LIKELY INCREASING TO SCA LEVELS ACROSS ALL OF
THE WATERS.
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...TBW
DECISION SUPPORT...TBW
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...TBW
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