565
FXUS62 KTBW 230631
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
231 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2021
DISCUSSION
QUASI-ZONAL U/L PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CUBA. LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...CUTTING OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND
ROTATING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
MUCH STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL DIG THROUGH THE PLAINS MID WEEK AND
WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE
WEEK, WITH THE U/L TROUGH APPROACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY WILL
MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY. U/L SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENINSULA
TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING OVER THE REGION. AS THE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY,
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR ALOFT BACK
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A DECREASING CHANCE OF RAIN.
THE TRAILING STRONGER U/L DISTURBANCE WILL INDUCE A COMPLEX AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PUSHING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WEDNESDAY...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A SUFFICIENT COMBINATION
OF SHEAR AND LIFT MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FROM THE TAMPA AREA AND NORTH. AND GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ATTM CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION
OF THE WEEK.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, COOLER DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDINESS
BKN250 WILL SPREAD OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER WITH LCL VFR CIG AND MVFR VSBYS VCNTY
FMY/RSW/PGD.
MARINE
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN EVENING SURGE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CAUTIONARY LEVELS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MID
WEEK WITH ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS...HOWEVER WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CREATE LOW DISPERSIONS
TODAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 74 89 75 / 0 0 30 20
FMY 90 74 89 74 / 20 10 60 30
GIF 90 72 89 73 / 0 0 40 20
SRQ 89 73 88 73 / 0 0 40 30
BKV 90 67 89 69 / 0 0 20 10
SPG 88 77 88 76 / 0 0 30 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING
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