659
FXUS62 KTBW 141415
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1015 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
TODAY. HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1004 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
A RELATIVELY CALM START TO OUR FRIDAY ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE, WHICH BECAUSE OF THE
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SUPPORT HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH 7PM
THIS EVENING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER WINDS TO BE PUSH DOWN TO THE SURFACE WHERE
STORMS DO DEVELOP. LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED, WHICH ALSO MEANS
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS IT REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
NO LET UP TO THE HEAT. A STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL
ACTUALLY BUILD ANOTHER 20 TO 30 DECAMETERS TODAY ENHANCING THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALREADY OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL IN EFFECT
INCREASE MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AND DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY FROM 11
AM TO 7 PM WITH MAX HEAT INDICES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 108 TO 111
RANGE. THE ONE CAVEAT WILL BE: HOW MUCH DRY AIR MIXES DOWN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD LOWER DEW POINTS AND THUS APPARENT
TEMPS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. EITHER WAY, HOT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S, AND WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED LOCATIONS HIT
98 OR 99, MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
TODAY WILL ALSO BE A TRANSITION DAY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF I-4 AND WEAK
ONSHORE WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF I-4. THIS WILL CREATE A MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY,
RUNNING FROM INTERIOR NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DOWN OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...WHICH WILL AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRONG INSOLATION AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR
ALOFT, A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. LATE IN THE DAY, THE LEADING EDGE OF
A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SAL WILL
APPROACH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THIS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY MAY
INITIALLY ENHANCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH MUCH LOWER POPS NORTH AND CENTRAL. AGAIN, A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
ON SUNDAY, MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT SAL,
WHILE THE STRONG U/L RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. VERY LOW POPS ON SUNDAY AS PREDOMINATELY HOT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
THE U/L RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER HEIGHTS WILL FALL JUST A BIT WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO DROP A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT OVERALL THEY
WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. MARGINAL HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SINK
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONSHORE WEST WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA...WHICH WILL PROMOTE ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON,
THEN PUSHING INLAND WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER
THE INTERIOR DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP LOW
STORM COVERAGE NEAR TERMINALS, BUT A PROB30 WAS KEPT TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE PROBABILITY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PUSH INLAND BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 94 79 94 80 / 40 20 20 10
FMY 95 77 95 78 / 40 20 60 20
GIF 96 76 96 77 / 40 20 20 10
SRQ 95 77 95 78 / 40 20 20 10
BKV 95 75 96 75 / 40 20 20 10
SPG 95 79 94 81 / 40 10 20 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 1
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-
INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND
LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-
PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...DELERME
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
DISCUSSION...OGLESBY
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