565  
FXUS62 KTBW 230631  
AFDTBW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL  
231 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
QUASI-ZONAL U/L PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA  
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CUBA. LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE WILL  
PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST SUNDAY AND  
SUNDAY NIGHT...CUTTING OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND  
ROTATING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A  
MUCH STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL DIG THROUGH THE PLAINS MID WEEK AND  
WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE  
WEEK, WITH THE U/L TROUGH APPROACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY WILL  
MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY. U/L SUBTROPICAL  
MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENINSULA  
TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING OVER THE REGION. AS THE AREA  
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY,  
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE  
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR ALOFT BACK  
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A DECREASING CHANCE OF RAIN.  
 
THE TRAILING STRONGER U/L DISTURBANCE WILL INDUCE A COMPLEX AREA  
OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY LATE  
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT  
PUSHING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WEDNESDAY...THE  
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND FLORIDA PENINSULA ON  
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF  
THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A SUFFICIENT COMBINATION  
OF SHEAR AND LIFT MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH  
THE BEST CHANCE FROM THE TAMPA AREA AND NORTH. AND GIVEN  
UNCERTAINTY ATTM CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. WILL  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION  
OF THE WEEK.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, COOLER DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS  
THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDINESS  
BKN250 WILL SPREAD OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF A LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER WITH LCL VFR CIG AND MVFR VSBYS VCNTY  
FMY/RSW/PGD.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN EVENING SURGE  
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW  
CAUTIONARY LEVELS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK  
AND REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET. WINDS  
AND SEAS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MID  
WEEK WITH ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL  
LEVELS...HOWEVER WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CREATE LOW DISPERSIONS  
TODAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TPA 90 74 89 75 / 0 0 30 20  
FMY 90 74 89 74 / 20 10 60 30  
GIF 90 72 89 73 / 0 0 40 20  
SRQ 89 73 88 73 / 0 0 40 30  
BKV 90 67 89 69 / 0 0 20 10  
SPG 88 77 88 76 / 0 0 30 20  
 

 
   
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GULF WATERS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY  
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab FL Page Main Text Page