037  
FXUS62 KTBW 162347  
AFDTBW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL  
647 PM EST WED JAN 16 2019  
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A PATCH OF  
BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY  
02Z. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON  
FROM DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SEA BREEZE.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 300 PM EST WED JAN 16 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...  
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS  
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OUT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING  
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING. THESE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT  
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S FROM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 4  
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD WITH LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH OF HERE. THIS WILL  
SET US UP FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 30S  
AND 40S. ALSO WITH THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT WE'LL SEE FROST  
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST, AND POSSIBLY ON SOME ROOF  
TOPS AND CAR ROOFS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS ACROSS  
CENTRAL FLORIDA.  
 
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE  
ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH THE MODERATING TREND GETTING UNDERWAY. SKIES  
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR INTO EARLY FRIDAY THEN SOME STRATOCUMULUS  
COULD MOVE WEST OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES WHILE  
HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL  
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND A FEW  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.  
 
ON SATURDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH  
WARM MOIST AIR RETURNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. AT THIS  
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY  
WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE SHOWERS AND A  
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH  
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
IT WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WITH WEST TO  
NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING IN THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR FOR THE  
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN WARMER WITH  
THE AIR NOT LOOKING ANY COLDER THAN WE'VE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE  
OF DAYS. EITHER WAY THIS COLD SNAP DOES LOOK SHORT LIVED AS THE  
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND OUT  
INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO  
ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
AVIATION...  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME MID/HIGH  
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY  
EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO  
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT THEN INCREASE BACK TO 7 TO 10  
KNOTS WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
MARINE...  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE  
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH  
LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS CONTINUING. CONDITIONS WILL START TO  
DETERIORATE LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, WITH WINDS  
TURNING TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS.  
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH A PERIOD OF  
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
FIRE WEATHER...  
THE MODERATING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY THURSDAY WITH THE  
RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY WITH  
A COUPLE OF HOURS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY POSSIBLE OVER  
INLAND AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN  
AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, NO FIRE WEATHER  
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WE SEE AN INCREASE IN  
MOISTURE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TPA 46 69 52 74 / 0 0 0 0  
FMY 48 75 54 79 / 0 0 0 0  
GIF 45 72 51 76 / 0 0 0 0  
SRQ 44 69 50 74 / 0 0 0 0  
BKV 34 70 40 75 / 0 0 0 0  
SPG 47 68 53 72 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL  
CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-  
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-SUMTER.  
 
GULF WATERS...NONE.  

 
 

 
AVIATION...42/NORMAN  
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...69/CLOSE  
 
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