882
FXUS62 KTBW 100429
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1229 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. THIS WILL HOLD THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES EACH DAY, AND WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH PCPW VALUES OVER 2 INCHES, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE RISK
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND FLOODING OF URBAN AND FLOOD PRONE
AREAS. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RISK FOR
RIVER FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY ADVECT OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS
AND THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
VFR CIGS AOA 120 WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY LATE. INCREASING CLOUDINESS ON
THURSDAY WITH SCT LCL BKN 025-035 DEVELOPING VCNTY ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND MAY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LCL
MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH WINDS BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS EACH DAY. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL
BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 78 90 79 / 60 40 70 30
FMY 92 77 92 77 / 60 40 70 40
GIF 94 76 93 76 / 60 30 70 30
SRQ 92 76 91 77 / 60 40 50 30
BKV 93 74 91 74 / 60 30 70 30
SPG 90 78 89 79 / 60 40 60 30
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 1
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...HURT
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...HURT
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