853  
FXUS62 KTBW 050845  
AFDTBW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL  
345 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2021  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR  
DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHTER NORTHEAST FLOW ALLOWING FOR AN AFTERNOON  
SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN  
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF AN AREA OF  
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN OUT INTO THE  
ATLANTIC OCEAN SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME WIDESPREAD  
RAINFALL DURING SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM AROUND  
PUNTA GORDA TO SEBRING SOUTHWARD. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON  
SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN  
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT CONTINUING TO RIDGE WEST  
ACROSS THE REGION. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME  
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME LEADING TO BREEZY  
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE OVERALL  
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH BREEZY  
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WE'LL SEE SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE SPREADING  
WESTWARD UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LEADING TO SOME SCATTERED  
TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS EACH DAY ALONG WITH A GRADUAL MODERATING  
TREND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH  
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING  
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 14Z. AN AFTERNOON SEA  
BREEZE WILL SHIFT WINDS TO WEST TO NORTHWEST NEAR THE COAST  
DURING THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING BACK TO  
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS DURING THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO  
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AN AREA OF  
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN GULF WATERS ON SATURDAY  
BRINGING HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS  
RESULTING IN CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY  
DURING EACH NIGHT WITH THE NOCTURNAL SURGE MOVING ACROSS THE  
WATERS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DIP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL  
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS  
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 MPH OR LESS SO NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS  
ARE ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY KEEPING  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THEN DRIER AIR  
RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TPA 78 59 70 53 / 0 10 90 30  
FMY 80 60 76 57 / 0 0 70 40  
GIF 78 58 71 52 / 0 0 90 40  
SRQ 79 59 72 55 / 0 0 90 40  
BKV 78 52 68 46 / 0 20 80 30  
SPG 76 62 69 56 / 0 10 90 40  
 

 
   
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GULF WATERS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CLOSE  
DECISION SUPPORT...SHIVELEY  
 
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