037
FXUS62 KTBW 162347
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
647 PM EST WED JAN 16 2019
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A PATCH OF
BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY
02Z. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON
FROM DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SEA BREEZE.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 300 PM EST WED JAN 16 2019/
DISCUSSION (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OUT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING. THESE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S FROM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 4
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD WITH LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH OF HERE. THIS WILL
SET US UP FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 30S
AND 40S. ALSO WITH THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT WE'LL SEE FROST
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST, AND POSSIBLY ON SOME ROOF
TOPS AND CAR ROOFS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA.
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH THE MODERATING TREND GETTING UNDERWAY. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR INTO EARLY FRIDAY THEN SOME STRATOCUMULUS
COULD MOVE WEST OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES WHILE
HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH
WARM MOIST AIR RETURNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IT WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING IN THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN WARMER WITH
THE AIR NOT LOOKING ANY COLDER THAN WE'VE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. EITHER WAY THIS COLD SNAP DOES LOOK SHORT LIVED AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT THEN INCREASE BACK TO 7 TO 10
KNOTS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS CONTINUING. CONDITIONS WILL START TO
DETERIORATE LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, WITH WINDS
TURNING TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH A PERIOD OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE MODERATING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY THURSDAY WITH THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
A COUPLE OF HOURS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY POSSIBLE OVER
INLAND AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, NO FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WE SEE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 46 69 52 74 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 48 75 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 45 72 51 76 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 44 69 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 34 70 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 47 68 53 72 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL
CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
AVIATION...42/NORMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...69/CLOSE
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