385
FXUS62 KTBW 241811
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
211 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2018
DISCUSSION
RIDGING ALOFT IN THE W ATLANTIC WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK
AND REMAIN STACKED OVER THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE, THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE N OF THE BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NWWARD TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO MID-WEEK. THEN
THE W ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA KEEPING AN EASTERLY STEERING FLOW IN PLACE.
DEEP MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
TYPICAL LATE SUMMER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEA BREEZES AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AND IN
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.
AVIATION
SEABREEZE SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBY AND
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AROUND 00Z THEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ALL
TAF SITES TONIGHT.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS N FL AND NE GULF THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS. EXPECT MODEST EASTERLY SURGES
IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL THEN A WEAK SEA BREEZE
FORMING AT THE COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS TO WEAKEN AND SINK OVER THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINES, BUT WILL BE HIGHER IN OR NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW LEVEL LATE SUMMERTIME MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH DAILY RAIN
CHANCES AND WARM TEMPS CONTINUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 77 91 77 / 50 40 60 40
FMY 93 77 91 75 / 50 50 60 50
GIF 92 76 91 75 / 50 20 60 20
SRQ 91 77 89 76 / 40 50 50 50
BKV 92 75 91 75 / 60 30 60 30
SPG 92 79 91 78 / 40 50 50 50
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE
WEATHER...25/DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...11/MCKAUGHAN
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