526  
FXUS62 KTBW 242326  
AFDTBW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL  
726 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
TONIGHTS SOUNDING WILL SHOW ANOTHER VERY DRY LAYER JUST ABOVE THE  
INVERSION AT AROUND 850MB. THERE IS CLEARLY A DIFFERENT AIR MASS  
TO OUR SOUTH AS SHOWERS HAVE PROGRESSED NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH OF FT  
MYERS TO SARASOTA COUNTY IN THE LAST 4 HOURS. AFTER SUNSET THE  
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE HOWEVER THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE  
TO MOVE NORTH. NO ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT RUNNING  
FORECAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
I REMOVED VCSH FROM ALL AIRPORTS EXCEPT SRQ AS THE MOIST AIR IS  
EITHER STILL SOUTH OR THE ATMOSPHERE IS DONE FOR THIS EVENING.  
THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE BUT ARE MOVING  
WEST AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT RSW OR FMY. TOMORROW SHOULD SEE PRETTY  
GOOD TSRA COVERAGE. I ADDED VCTS TO ALL AIRPORTS.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 213 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2020/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO  
MOVE EASTWARD AS THE REMNANTS OF BETA MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN  
U.S. THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT,  
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE BRINGING A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES FROM  
SOUTH TO NORTH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE EVEN HIGHER  
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SETS UP  
OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE  
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY WASHING OUT OVER THE AREA MID-WEEK.  
 
AVIATION...  
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,  
BUT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON FOR KSRQ SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TERMINALS.  
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS EVENING, WITH  
VICINITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS, ALONG WITH BRIEF  
VISIBILITY AND/OR CEILING RESTRICTIONS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME  
MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON  
 
MARINE...  
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SHIFT  
TO ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL  
DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AND SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHWEST TO NORTH  
DIRECTION AND THEN INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES  
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO  
RETURN, WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.  
 
FIRE WEATHER...  
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH  
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE  
CRITICAL LEVELS. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS  
EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TPA 76 89 76 89 / 20 40 20 40  
FMY 76 88 76 89 / 50 60 30 50  
GIF 75 89 75 91 / 20 70 10 60  
SRQ 75 89 76 89 / 30 40 20 40  
BKV 73 90 73 90 / 20 40 10 40  
SPG 76 89 77 88 / 20 40 20 30  
 

 
   
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GULF WATERS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...04/SOBIEN  
UPPER AIR...14/MROCZKA  
DECISION SUPPORT...14/MROCZKA  
 
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