541
FXUS62 KTBW 060016
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
816 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
IN SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY EVENING, THERE'S AN AREA OF
OUTFLOW AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION RACING S/SW ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST ON APPROACH TO WCFL AND ADJACENT WATERS, ALBEIT MUCH MORE
SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. LATEST ANALYSIS AND OBS INDICATE A LINGERING
NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA,
EXTENDING SW FROM TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF
THE CAROLINAS COAST. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE N/NE FLOW
OVER AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-4 AND W/SW FLOW SOUTHWARD, AND
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH AND BECOME A BIT MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, ALLOWING W/SW FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED FLOW REGIME AND
PRECIP TIMING/LOCATION. ONGOING AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH, WITH EARLY MORNING COASTAL RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING ON SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES.
DISCUSSION
THE LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE REGION WHILE TS
CHANTAL MOVES TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OVER THE PENINSULA
KEEPING THE WARM, MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT DIURNAL SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MOVING INTO INLAND ZONES BY THE EVENING
HOURS TODAY AND SUNDAY. SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS OR TRAINING MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN FOR LOCALIZED URBAN OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING
CONCERNS.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, LATEST GUIDANCE BRINGS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE REGION WHILE WEAK SURFACE W ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
STRETCHES ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WITH FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. THERE WILL BE DAILY VARIABILITY IN POPS
WITH SOME SMALL POCKETS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND A WEAK EASTERLY
WAVE INFLUENCE. BUT GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPS AROUND NORMAL VALUES
ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS
DAILY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
MAINLY VFR FOR TERMINALS THROUGH PERIOD. CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
PERHAPS A STORM INITIALLY THIS EVENING WITH REMAINING AREA
CONVECTION THEN CLEARING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. COASTAL SHOWER
CHANCE RETURNS LATE OVERNIGHT THRU EARLY MORNING WITH SW FLOW
REGIME SETTLING ACROSS TERMINALS, FOLLOWED BY STORM CHANCE LATE
MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES INLAND AND EAST
OF TERMINALS. SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS MAY
TRANSLATE TO CONVECTION LINGERING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SHIFTING INLAND.
MARINE
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER GULF WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DAILY SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL
PRODUCE CHOPPY INCREASED SEAS IN AND NEAR CONVECTION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE UP COMING WEEK
KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND SEAS SLIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND BECOMING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 90 79 91 / 40 50 20 50
FMY 77 91 77 93 / 40 40 10 50
GIF 75 91 76 93 / 50 60 0 50
SRQ 76 88 77 90 / 40 50 20 40
BKV 72 90 74 91 / 50 50 10 50
SPG 77 87 79 88 / 40 50 20 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 5
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...RDAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE/FLANNERY
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