405
FXUS62 KTBW 031214
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
714 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING, A WARM UP EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- NEXT COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
- NEXT SHOT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SET UP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
THESE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE PRIME FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FREEZE
WARNING AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH 9 AM.
THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF FLORIDA BY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
FOR THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT WARM UP IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
60S TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER EAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WHICH WILL EQUATE TO ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH MID
30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASANT WEATHER WITH
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S IS EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DIPPING INTO
THE 40S AND 50S.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
ITS WAY THROUGH FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF FLORIDA BY
THURSDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES EASTWARD,
ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO FLORIDA ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY ONCE AGAIN NORTH OF TAMPA BAY ALONG THE
NATURE COAST. THIS NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL NOT BE AS POTENT AND
LONG LASTING AS THE ONE OVER THE PAST WEEKEND AND EARLY THIS WEEK.
AFTER STARTING OUT ON THE COLD SIDE FRIDAY MORNING, A PLEASANT DAY
IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUNNY SKIES AND DAYTIME HIGHS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNINGS DIPPING ONLY INTO THE 40S EACH
NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL TOP OUT
IN THE 70S EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 711 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
VRF CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 137 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PRODUCE PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY FOR WINDS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS AND SEAS 5-7
FEET. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AND
SEAS 2-4 FEET. PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 137 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PRODUCE RAIN-FREE AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RH VALUES WILL DIP BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 MPH
WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MORE DRY AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SOME CRITICAL RH VALUES EXPECTED. BUT ONCE AGAIN, THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH WITH NO RED FLAG WARNINGS NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 65 46 70 51 / 0 0 0 60
FMY 69 47 74 54 / 0 0 0 40
GIF 65 43 74 49 / 0 0 0 50
SRQ 65 43 69 52 / 0 0 0 60
BKV 65 33 72 43 / 0 0 0 60
SPG 64 49 69 54 / 0 0 0 60
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-POLK-SUMTER.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND
MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-POLK.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...PEARCE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...PEARCE
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