757
FXUS62 KTBW 131210
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
710 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
- SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 709 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE DAY IS OFF TO A COOL AND CLOUDY START. THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A
LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800MB (APPROX. 6.5KFT) WITH A STRONG DRY
LAYER ABOVE FROM 800MB TO 700MB BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS. THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS TRAPPED MOISTURE WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY, SUGGESTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE STATE.
AS SUCH, THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK, WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE WINDOW WHERE CIGS ARE FAVORED TO BE
LOWEST WILL GENERALLY RUN FROM 06Z TO APPROXIMATELY 14Z. HOWEVER,
THESE LOW CIGS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO OCCUR AT ANYTIME. WHEN
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY, THE WINDOW FOR LOW CIGS WILL
EXTEND UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. ADDITIONALLY, SOME CONVECTION
AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH ON SUNDAY IS STILL LINGERING JUST
SOUTH OF FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH TODAY ALLOWING
FOR SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. A SHOWER OR TWO WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN SW FLORIDA. BY WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE A MUCH STRONGER
COLD FRONT HEADING OUR WAY. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT PASSES BY. COLDER AIR WILL
START TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS NORTH OF I-4 STAYING
BELOW 60 DEGREES. OUR COLDEST MORNING SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL BE ON
FRIDAY. FOR OUR INLAND AREAS WE COULD SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
AS FAR SOUTH AS HARDEE AND DESOTO COUNTIES WITH THE NATURE COAST
GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20'S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STAY IN
THE 50'S FOR ALMOST ALL OF US EXCEPT SW FLORIDA WHICH COULD TOUCH
60 DEGREES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON.
WE WILL SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING. WE WON'T BE SEEING ANY RAIN
WITH THIS FRONT BUT IT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE
30'S FOR MOST OF US MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE STUCK IN THE 50'S NORTH OF I-4 WITH THE LOW 60'S EVERYWHERE
ELSE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. WE WILL SEE A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GULF. BEHIND IT WINDS WILL INCREASE
QUICKLY PEAKING AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL NOT REMAIN THAT HIGH FOR LONG AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL START TO DECREASE THE WINDS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND 5 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY ON
SATURDAY BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
WE WILL SEE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR OUR TUESDAY AND
THE EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
BEHIND THE FRONT WE WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH GUST
TO 20 TO 25 MPH. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN THURSDAY NIGHT CREATING
CRITICAL RHS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL HAVE CALMED DOWN BY
THEN. THIS MEANS A RED FLAG WARNING SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 70 58 69 57 / 10 10 20 80
FMY 78 63 75 60 / 10 20 10 60
GIF 73 58 70 54 / 10 30 20 60
SRQ 72 58 70 57 / 10 20 10 80
BKV 70 51 68 47 / 10 10 20 70
SPG 70 60 70 60 / 10 20 20 80
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...FLANNERY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHIVELEY
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